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EQT is priced at less than 5x its 2023 free cash flows.\n\nArticle Content:\n\nimaginima/E+ via Getty Images\nEQT (NYSE:EQT) is a natural gas production company. With natural gas prices moving higher and staying higher for longer, EQT is a strong beneficiary.\nThere's a lot to like about the company. It has a robust balance sheet, with two rating agencies assigning EQT an investment-grade rating.\nThe one minor blemish is that the company was too aggressive with its hedging book, meaning that 45% of its book is hedged in 2023.\nThat being said, EQT still oozes free cash flow and deploys significant sums back to shareholders via repurchases and dividends.\nPaying less than 5x next year's estimated free cash flows is a very satisfying valuation.\nEQT sells natural gas and natural gas liquids (\"NGL\"). With inflation spiking commodity end-product prices higher, it is incentivizing the use of natural gas for the production of these commodities.\nWhen it comes to EQT, the setup here is quite simple and there's no need to overcomplicate this thesis.\nTrading Economics, natural gas price\nAs you can see above, natural gas prices are soaring higher and are now very close to $9 mbtu. With higher natural gas prices, companies like EQT are going to sizzle higher.\nThere are only 3 considerations that an investor needs to know.\nEverything else is a distraction.\nEQT has a robust debt profile. Amongst natural gas players, it's not the strongest, but it is undoubtedly strong. As EQT exited Q1 2022, it carried a net debt position of 1.9x leverage.\nThat being said, EQT contends that at the current strip prices, EQT would finish 2022 with a net debt to EBITDA of approximately 0.8x. However, since EQT made that assertion approximately a month ago, gas prices have jumped higher by nearly 30%.\nConsequently, I suspect that EQT will probably finish 2022 with net debt closer to 0.6x at current strip prices.\nEQT Q1 2022 presentation\nFurthermore, as you can see above, EQT has no meaningful near-debt maturities. This supports the argument that EQT is investment grade, with both Fitch and S&P providing EQT with an investment-grade profile.\nAltogether, this implies that EQT is well set up to deploy substantial capital to shareholders.\nIn fact, over the first 4 months of the year, EQT had deployed approximately $230 million towards share repurchases. And with the benefit of hindsight, these repurchases were a terrific use of capital, as EQT repurchased approximately 2.5% of the total number of shares outstanding.\nEQT still has approximately $700 million left to deploy as part of its announced $1 billion share repurchase program. Together with its approximately $200 million assigned for dividends, this means that in 2022, EQT will have returned to shareholders approximately 8% of its market cap.\nEQT Q1 2022 presentation\nMoreover, EQT contends that even after $1.5 billion towards debt reduction, $1 billion for share repurchases, and close to $200 million towards dividends, between 2022 and 2023, it will still increase the cash on its balance sheet by approximately $3 billion in cash.\nNext, we'll turn our focus to EQT's valuation.\nAntero Resources May presentation\nAs you can see above, EQT still carries a substantial amount of hedges into 2023. The information in the graphic above is echoed in the table below.\nEQT Q1 2022 presentation\nIf we take EQT's 2022 production guidance of 2,000 (Bcfe) and assume a roughly similar volume output in 2023, this implies that approximately 45% of its total production is hedged for 2023.\nThis will prevent EQT from benefitting from maximum exposure to higher natural gas prices.\nEQT Q1 2022 presentation\nNevertheless, EQT believes that in 2023, with the remainder of its book that is not hedged this will allow EQT to generate 50% more free cash flow than in 2022.\nConsequently, EQT believes that it could make approximately $3.5 billion of free cash flow in 2023.\nEQT is an awesome investment. The only blemish in the investment thesis is that the company is 45% hedged in 2023, which prevents it from gaining maximum exposure to higher gas prices.\nNevertheless, even with that consideration, the company is still going to ooze free cash flow in 2023 and generate approximately $3.5 billion of free cash flow.\nPaying less than 5x free cash flow for an investment-grade company is a bargain. To preempt your question, I don't own shares in this company, I own shares in a peer. Whatever you decide, good luck and happy investing.\nMy Marketplace highlights a portfolio of undervalued investment opportunities - stocks with rapid growth potential, driven by top quality management, while these stocks are cheaply valued.\nI follow countless companies and select for you the most attractive investments. I do all the work of picking the most attractive stocks.\nAs an experienced professional, I highlight the best stocks to grow your savings: stocks that deliver strong gains.\nThis article was written by\nMichael Wiggins De Oliveira is an energy specialist whose primary focus is capitalizing on \u00e2\u0080\u009cthe Great Energy Transition\u00e2\u0080\u009d - the confluence of decarbonization, digitalization with AI, and deglobalization - to achieve greater investment returns. Through his 9+ years analyzing countless companies, Michael has accumulated outstanding professional experience in the energy sector and a following of over 40K on Seeking Alpha.\nAnalyst\u00e2\u0080\u0099s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.\nSeeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\n", + "timestamp_ms": 1653464975000, + "published_utc": "2022-05-25T07:49:35Z", + "article_url": "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4514281-eqt-stock-5x-free-cash-flow-natural-gas-player-serious-bargain", + "label_type": [ + "[1][c] Company-Specific News", + "[2][c] Stock Recommendations" + ], + "label_time": [ + "[2][b] Recent Trends (Past Few Weeks \u2013 Ongoing)", + "[3][a] Short-Term Outlook (Next 3\u20136 months)" + ], + "label_sentiment": [ + "[1][a] Bullish" + ] + }, + "trend": { + "input_percentage_change": 4.362219230496699, + "input_bin_label": ">+4%", + "output_percentage_change": 4.0430161943319955, + "output_bin_label": ">+4%", + "overall_percentage_change": 22.70719667446088, + "overall_bin_label": ">+4%" + }, + "technical": { + "in_sma_10": [ + 38.49, + 38.885000000000005, 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