Input: possible, refugees and host communities will be provided with access to climate information, and to inform livelihood choices balanced against market demands. _Subcomponent 1.2. Issuing of ID cards to refugees and former refugees nationally (US$6 million)_ 27. **The GRZ plans to issue new biometric National Registration Cards (NRCs) to all citizens.** The process is led by the Department of National Registration, Passports and Citizenship under the MoHAIS through the Integrated National Registration Information System (INRIS) project. The overall objective of the project is to improve civil registration and identity management processes through digitization and automation. In line with the new Refugee Policy, the scheme will be extended to all refugees and former refugees, enabling them for the first time to be part of the national civil registry. Despite the historically high uptake of NRCs by Zambian citizens, women and girls still face several access challenges, attributed to time and mobility constraints due to domestic work and childcare commitments. 28. **The current system of documentation leaves persons of concern** **[20]** **vulnerable.** The GRZ, with the support of the UNHCR, has been registering persons of concern and issuing them with documents such as asylum seeker certificates, registration certificates, refugee identity cards, birth

Integrated National Registration Information System

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Input: Africa has increased substantially over the past 18 months, with more than 700,000 people approaching UNHCR in **Egypt** since April 2023 and nearly 69,000 new arrivals to **Libya** . UNHCR is working with governments and humanitarian partners to sustain an emergency response to help those fleeing the horrors of war; however, the regional response to the Sudan situation continues to be severely underfunded. After more than 13 years, the **Syria Situation** remains one of the largest displacement crises in the world. Close to 6 million Syrian refugees are hosted in the neighbouring countries. Maintaining assistance to Syrian refugees in host countries in the region remains of paramount importance, particularly given the already heightened vulnerabilities among refugees in host countries and added pressure on host governments. A lack of adequate resources has exacerbated tensions between refugees and host communities, decreased opportunities for livelihoods and strained already overstretched national systems. Years of devastating conflict in **Yemen** have left 18.2 million people dependent on humanitarian assistance. In **Iraq**, UNHCR also urgently needs resources to continue supporting the authorities in ensuring access to civil documentation and inclusion in the national social safety net for some 1 million internally displaced Iraqis. UNHCR is responding to

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Input: Policy Research Working Paper 6277 #### **Abstract** Scientific evidence indicates that global warming could well lead to a sea-level rise of 1 meter or more in the 21 [st] century. This paper seeks to quantify how a 1-meter sea-level rise that would affect coastal wetlands in 76 developing countries and territories, taking into account how much of wetlands would be submerged and how likely the wetlands would move inland as the coastline recedes. It is estimated that approximately 64 percent of the freshwater marsh, 66 percent of Global Lakes and Wetlands Database coastal wetlands, and 61 percent of brackish/saline wetlands are at risk. A large percentage of this loss would be shouldered by two regions: East Asia and the Pacific, and the Middle East and North Africa. At the country level, the results are extremely skewed with a small number of countries being severely affected. In East Asia, China and Vietnam would bear the brunt of these losses. In the Middle East and North Africa, Libya and Egypt would see the most losses. A rough estimate of the economic value of the goods and services produced by wetlands at risk is approximately $630 million per year in 2000 U.S. dollars.

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Input: are also aggregated to administrative units, including for each country and subnational unit. These estimates are also aggregated to yield regional and global estimates. **4.** **Compute the number of poor people exposed to flood risk:** While poverty estimates are not available at the pixel level, the World Bank’s GMD database provides them at the subnational level for most countries. These poverty shares are multiplied with the population headcount that is estimated to be exposed to flooding, in order to obtain an estimate of the number of poor people in each administrative unit exposed to flood risk. Similarly, exposure headcount estimates are multiplied with subnational GDP per capita figures to obtain estimates of flood exposed GDP in monetary terms. **4.2.** **Stepwise computational process** The following steps are repeated for each subnational region where data are available. **Merge coastal, pluvial, fluvial flood hazard maps** - Crop fluvial and pluvial flood rasters to subnational boundary - Crop then virtually warp the coastal flood raster, using a nearest neighbors resampling method, to perfectly match the resolution and extent of the fluvial and pluvial rasters - Merge fluvial, pluvial, and coastal rasters using a maximum value method 8

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Input: **The World Bank** Costa Rica Results in Education (CORE) (P181174) provision of hardware (notebook computers and tablets) and connectivity for primary and secondary schools; in addition to computers, the Project will provide other equipment such as smart boards, projectors, headphones, robotics and related physical computation kits, routers to enhance internal connectivity); [26] and (iii) support to the development and implementation of a hybrid learning policy, its operational plan, and a communication strategy. This last activity would include the development of a national learning platform for virtual learning; implementation of a monitoring mechanism, such as the World Bank’s Education and Technology Readiness Index (ETRI); and development of digital resources such as e-books, multimedia contents, simulation exercises, and educational applications, as part of a unified learning management and competency certification system. As with foundational learning, implementation of the PNFT as part of the curriculum (it is not optative) will ensure that equal opportunity will be provided for girls and boys for all modules, and that girls will not lag behind boys in digital competencies, including coding and robotics. Computer Science teachers would be specially trained to make sure that coding and robotics activities are gender inclusive (for example in the choice of

World Bank’s Education and Technology Readiness Index (ETRI)

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Input: **Figure 3: Coastal cyclone landfalls in Bangladesh, West Bengal and Odisha:** **Median locations by period, 178 cyclonic storms, 1877-2016** **Sources: BMD, IMD, IBTrACS** **Figure 4: Coastal cyclone landfalls in Bangladesh, West Bengal and Odisha:** **Distribution of locations by period, 178 cyclonic storms, 1877-2016** **Sources: BMD, IMD, IBTrACS** 11

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Input: from coefficients on dummies for longer-term possession (5-12 and > 12 years, respectively) as discussed earlier. Relevant regression results and tests for relationships between coefficients, presented in table 5, lead us to conclude that granting legal protection to _bona fide_ occupants attenuates investment disincentives in a way that goes beyond the mere passage of time. In the case of tree investment and soil conservation measures _γ_ _[2]_ _L_ [ is ] insignificant and _γ_ _[1]_ _L_ [significant, suggesting that what we find is a legal rather than just a time-effect. Still, ] while it is not surprising to find that tests consistently reject the hypothesis of _γ_ _[2]_ _L_ [ =] _[ γ]_ _T_ [ at the 1% level, ] pointing towards significant under-investment on parcels that were occupied for longer than 5 years, the same equivalent hypothesis (i.e. _γ_ _[1]_ _L_ [ =] _[ γ]_ _T_ [) is also rejected at 5% throughout. This implies that, compared to ] parcels they own, households invest significantly less in parcels to which by law they have been granted permanent and heritable occupancy rights. The magnitude of such under-investment remains large; according to the point estimates, _bona fide_ occupancy on customary land

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Input: with six lags of the dependent variable. The Arellano-Bond regression contains one lag of the dependent variable, with this lag instrumented by five previous lags. Observation are years 1967–2004 for the fixed-effects regression, and years 1962-2004 for the Arellano-Bond regression. All regressions contain weather station fixed effects. Robust standard errors are in parentheses. ***p _<_ 0.01, **p _<_ 0.05, *p _<_ 0.1. _Source_ : Authors’ analysis based on data from BASIX and APHRODITE. This evidence casts doubt on the hypothesis that positive autocorrelation of weather events is driving increased insurance purchasing. It appears that total rainfall is actually negatively autocorrelated, whereas shocks (which are proxied by the insurance contract giving a payout) do not appear to be correlated at all. Even if there is no positive autocorrelation of rainfall, there may be other aspects about experiencing a shock that result in people having a higher propensity to purchase insurance. In order to look at the results of weather separately from the effects of insurance, I analyze how previous weather events affected insurance purchase decisions in the first year that insurance was offered to BASIX customers, which was 2005. To accomplish this, I first aggregate the purchasing data to the village

data from BASIX and APHRODITE
BASIX and APHRODITE

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Input: **The World Bank** Integrated Community Resilience Project (P506969) PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT **productive inclusion and social behavior change communication (SBCC) to reduce poverty, enhance resilience to climate** **risks and support economic empowerment targeting the poor and vulnerable through financial inclusion** . Refugees and asylum-seekers, included in the 2024 census, are now part of the NSPS, and refugees were incorporated into the National Programme of Family Solidarity (PNSF) in 2023. Together, these strategies aim to build a sustainable, inclusive and shockresilient socio-economic landscape, conducive to long-term growth across the country. 8. **Over the last five years, Djibouti has made significant strides in social protection, but faces challenges in** **ensuring a comprehensive, effective and efficient social protection system that is adaptive and sustainable.** While the government has successfully piloted a targeted cash transfer program and laid the foundations for delivery mechanisms using the social registry, the NSPS highlights challenges of fragmentation (as of 2019, nine safety net programs covered different groups), inadequacy, and unpredictability. Djibouti’s social protection system is currently inadequate to shield poor and vulnerable people from adverse lifecycle impacts or encourage desirable investment in human capital and provides limited coverage. In 2012, social safety net coverage was 9.5 percent, well below

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Input: J. Cochrane and W. Kisamba-Mugerwa. 1994. "Tenure Security, Credit Use, and Farm Investment in the Rujumbura Pilot Land Registration Scheme, Uganda." In Bruce, J. W. and S. E. Migot-Adholla, eds., _Searching for Land Tenure Security in Africa_ . Dubuque, IA: Kendall/Hunt Publishers. Rugadya, M., E. Obaiko, and H. Kamusiime. 2004. "Gender and the Land Reform Process in Uganda: Assessing Gains and Losses for Women in Uganda." Land Research Series No. 2. Kampala: Associates for Development. Shaban, R. A. 1987. "Testing between Competing Models of Sharecropping." _Journal of Political Economy_ _95_ (5): 893-920. West, H. W. 1972. _Land policy in Buganda_ . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. World Bank. 2003. "Nicaragua Land Policy and Administration: Towards a More Secure Property Rights Regime." Report 26683NI. Washington, DC: World Bank. 26

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Input:
**pandemic, regional drought, inflation crisis and continuing global economic turbulence.** According to data from

the Kenya COVID-19 Rapid Response Phone Survey (RRPS), the Shona community experienced significant job

losses during the pandemic, particularly between July and September 2020, when unemployment increased

dramatically. [[9]] This period of economic disruption caused by the pandemic led to fluctuating employment rates, as

seen in the figure below.

_Figure 3: Labor force participation as a percentage of working age population, between 2019 and 2024_

_Source: 2019 Shona socioeconomic survey,_ [[8]] _Kenya COVID-19 Rapid Response Phone Surveys (RRPS),_ _[[9]]_ _and the authors’ calculation_

_of 2024 survey data._

**While employment has started to improve, it has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, especially for women.**

The employment rate for women decreased from 72 percent in 2019 to 61 percent in 2024, which can largely be

attributed to the job losses incurred during the pandemic and slower recovery in female-dominated sectors that

were further setback by the food price crisis and global economic headwinds. Meanwhile, male employment

increased slightly from 74 percent to 76 percent during the same period, reflecting a quicker rebound in male
dominated occupations.

Kenya COVID-19 Rapid Response Phone Survey (RRPS)

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Input: 24 25 Economic research on dispersal policies and labour market inclusion focuses on the strength of local labour markets and size of local ethnic networks. While some scholars find only the strength of local labour markets to be significant and not co-national networks (Foged, Hasager, and Peri, 2022), or inconsistent results for conational networks (Müller, Pannatier, and Viarengo, 2022), others find effects only for co-national networks (Damm, 2014).

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Input:
_UNHCR
 Discussion
 Paper
 –15
 June
 2013_

# **Supporting
 Durable
 Solutions** **in
 South-‐East
 Myanmar**

## **A
 framework
 for
 UNHCR
 engagement**

**1.** **INTRODUCTION**

Myanmar
 is
 currently
 undergoing
 a
 process
 of
 significant
 and
 rapid
 change,
 which
 has
already
 generated
 a
 series
 of
 political,
 social
 and
 economic
 reforms
 affecting
 all
 aspects
of
 life
 in
 the
 country.
 The
 reforms
 launched
 by
 the
 president
 Thein
 Sein
 and
 largely
supported
 by
 the
 opposition
 leader
 Aung
 San
 Suu
 Kyi
 have
 received
 strong
 and
 positive
encouragements
 from
 abroad
 with
 the
 most
 immediate
 outcome
 reflected
 in
 increased
foreign
 aid
 and
 the
 temporary
 suspension
 of
 a
 number
 of
 economic
 sanctions.
 Key
 legal
amendments
 have
 been
 adopted
 to
 ease
 restrictions
 on
 foreign
 investments,
 national
media
 and
 political
 parties
 while,
 in
 addition,
 hundreds
 of
 political
 prisoners
 have
 been
released
 from
 detention.

In
 late
 2011,
 President
 Thein
 Sein’s
 Government
 pledged
 to
 make
 the
 ethnic
 issue
 a
national
 priority,
 offering
 dialogue
 with
 all
 armed
 groups
 and
 dropping
 preconditions
for
 talks.
 By
 early
 2012,
 cease-‐fires
 were
 agreed
 between
 the
 Government
 and
 a
 number
of
 non-‐state
 armed
 opposition
 groups,
 including
 the
 Democratic
 Karen
 Buddhist
 Army
(DKBA),
 the
 Karen
 National
 Union
 (KNU),
 and
 the
 Karenni
 National
 Progressive
 Party
(KNPP).

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Input:
Regarding types of support received, most participants reported utilizing formal services with psychotherapy/counselling services being the most common (44%). Smaller numbers participated in creative psychosocial activities (19%), group or individual structured interventions designed to improve well-being (17%), psychiatry/medication management (8%), school-based services (4% overall; for children under 18, 13%), support gained from messaging materials (2%), and training for caregivers in how to support children in distress (1%). These formal services, provided by professionals or by trained specialists and nonspecialists, aim to address both clinical and subclinical mental health needs through structured, evidence-informed approaches.

Informal support also played a significant role, with 33% of participants receiving support from family and friends, 12% accessing spiritual support, and 3% receiving support from their employer (e.g., flexible Regionally, 56% of participants reported receiving only formal services, 25% reported receiving only informal support, and 14% of participants reported receiving both formal and informal forms of support.
Forms of support varied across countries, with uptake of formal services ranging from 29% of participants in Hungary to 64% of participants in Poland. In some settings with lower use of formal services, participants appeared somewhat more likely to seek out or use informal supports.

**21**

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Input:
Investigating the district-level effects on children’s health and birth outcomes in table 7, we

note a higher number of prenatal visits and an increase in attendance of a midwife in panel A.

These results are highly statistically significant and the effects are economically significant. A

mine opening increases the number of prenatal visits by 0.76 and increases the probability that

the birth was preceded by a prenatal visit supervised by a midwife by 12.5 percentage points.

In column 6 of panel A, we see that mine openings in a district reduce child mortality. The

probability of an infant dying before 12 months of age is reduced by 8.5 percentage points.

Given the importance of child mortality for human welfare, we strongly encourage future

research to investigate the mechanisms behind these striking results. Since the share of prenatal

visits supervised by a midwife also increases with mine openings, the results potentially speak

to the importance of midwives for reducing infant mortality.

**Table 7 Effects of mine opening at the district level on birth outcomes and child health**

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

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Input:
- Provide
 assistance
 to
 mine
 victims
 and
 support
 Mine
 Risk
 Education
 (MRE)
while
 following
 up
 and
 advocate
 for
 the
 implementation
 of
 humanitarian
 mine
action
 including
 survey,
 mapping,
 marking
 and
 clearance
 of
 contaminated
 areas,
especially
 in
 areas
 of
 potential
 and
 current
 return.
 Develop
 key
 advocacy
messages
 and
 co-‐ordination
 mechanisms
 to
 ensure
 that
 displaced
 communities
are
 aware
 of
 any
 landmine
 contamination
 in
 places
 of
 origin
 and
 transit.

- Advocate
 for
 the
 recognition
 of
 education
 certificates
 received
 in
 country
 of
asylum
 and
 the
 development
 of
 bi-‐lingual
 educational
 programmes.

- Conducting
 awareness-‐raising
 on
 SGBV
 prevention
 and
 response,
 assisting
 SGBV
victims
 through
 established
 referral
 mechanisms
 for
 treatment
 and
 psycho-‐
social
 support,
 and
 supporting
 community-‐based
 protection
 solutions.

- Establish
 community
 based
 mechanisms
 for
 identifying
 EVIs
 and
 provide
tailored
 assistance.

13

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Input:
that is produced by labour alone. This can be estimated by assuming that it is equal to the labour compensation share of GDP (GDP can be divided into compensation of labour and capital), which in 2022 and 2023 stood in Poland at 48% according to the European Commission’s AMECO database.
Accounting for that, gives a lower estimate of 0.7-1.0% GDP. Such calculations are very abstract, and do not account for other phenomena developing simultaneously in the economy, like the various effects of the war and energy shock. For this reason, we turn next to formal general equilibrium modelling, where equations of the model state explicitly every assumption about the workings of the economy and allow for a credible estimation of counter-factual scenarios.

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Input:
refugees, we have adjusted all the results proportionally to a 1.4-2.2% employment growth. First, Gradzewicz, Jabłon owski, Sasiela, and Żółkiewski (2021) use the NBP CGE model to estimate the economic impact of pre-2022 Ukrainian migrants over the 2015-2018 period, treating their inflow as a positive unskilled labour shock. If the Ukrainian refugee inflow had the same characteristics, it would yield a 0.5-0.8% higher GDP – the lower bound of our estimate. Second, Strzelecki, Growiec, and Wyszyński (2022) perform a growth accounting exercise to gauge the economic impact of the pre-2022 Ukrainian migrants over the 2014-2018 period, accounting for hours and worker characteristics to arrive at a productivityadjusted labour supply. If Ukrainian refugees had the same characteristics, they © UNHCR / Anna Liminowicz As such **4 scenarios** were calculated with options corresponding to different mixes of low and high estimation for employment and productivity while keeping stable impact on consumption: high or low employment level, similar (baseline) or lower (conservative) productivity. In the conservative productivity scenario, we assumed approximately 10% lower refugee productivity estimated based on incomes reported in MSNA Poland 2023 and data from Statistics Poland.

**Table 2.** Cumulative changes in main indicators in 2023

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Input:
_UNHCR
 Discussion
 Paper
 –15
 June
 2013_

make
 efforts
 towards
 an
 internal
 peace
 process
 with
 armed
 groups
 in
 the
 border
 areas,
parallel
 debates
 emerged
 about
 the
 opportunity
 to
 return
 for
 over
 a
 hundred
 thousand
refugees
 from
 the
 “temporary
 shelters” [2] in
 Thailand.

While
 the
 present
 and
 immediately
 expected
 environment
 in
 Myanmar
 does
 not
 meet
 all
the
 conditions
 or
 safeguards
 for
 an
 organized
 return,
 the
 changing
 environment
 makes
it
 prudent
 that
 measures
 are
 initiated
 to
 prepare
 for
 any
 possible
 voluntary
 repatriation
of
 refugees
 as
 well
 as
 the
 return,
 local
 integration
 or
 voluntary
 resettlement
 to
 another
part
 of
 the
 country
 of
 IDPs
 in
 Myanmar.
 Any
 preparations,
 however,
 should
 be
 initiated
with
 due
 caution
 so
 as
 not
 to
 send
 the
 wrong
 “message”
 to
 the
 Government,
 non-‐state
armed
 groups,
 IDPs,
 refugees
 or
 partners
 that
 return
 is
 being
 encouraged
 or
 promoted
at
 this
 stage.

This
 Discussion
 Paper
 seeks
 to
 articulate
 a
 broad
 framework
 which
 should
 guide
UNHCR’s
 engagement
 in
 the
 South-‐East
 in
 2013-‐2015,
 and
 in
 particular,
 to
 define
 the
parameters
 of
 UNHCR’s
 role
 in
 supporting:

i. durable
 solutions
 for
 IDPs;
 and
ii. the
 sustainable
 reintegration
 of
 returning
 refugees.

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Input:
treatment. District level is an additional interesting level of analysis, since it captures effects

through the fiscal channel, and has previously been employed in, for example, Loyaza, Mier y

Teran, and Rigolini (2013) to measure income inequality across mining districts in Peru. With

Ghana’s tax-sharing rules, district tax income and royalties increase with expansion in gold

extraction (for more information, see section 2). In the district-level analysis, we first use mine

openings as the independent variable, and then we use a richer specification with production

levels. Given the spatial location of mines near district borders, we additionally analyze spatial

spillovers from mining districts to neighboring districts.

**4.2.1 Difference-in-differences at the district level**

The first approach is similar to the local-level approach, only an individual is defined as being

treated by a mine opening if she or he lives in a district with at least one active mine. In total,

our mines are located in 11 mining districts (see figure 3). For districts with several mines, we

define the whole district as active whenever at least one mine is active. Later, we will also

consider district total annual production (tons of gold extracted), and thereby the effect of the

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Input:
wages and reduced over-education for migrants working in licensed jobs, while producing worse labour market outcomes for those who did not gain licensure.
According to Peterson et al. (2014), over the 1973–2010 period, U.S. states with more stringent occupational licensing for migrant physicians received fewer new migrant physicians and struggled more with staffing shortages in healthcare. Aleksynska and Tritah (2013) quoted data that migrants in France were denied legal access to approximately 30% of jobs in the country.

Ukrainian refugees Polish citizens Source: Deloitte own elaboration based on mid-2024 SEIS UNHCR survey (Ukrainian refugees’ educational attainment), 2023 Eurostat Labour Force Survey Eurostat (Polish citizens educational attainment), and mid-2024 ZUS administrative data (occupational groups).

**Chart 21. Share of regulated professions by citizenship and legal status, Q2 2024**

**The educational premium seems**

**to be lower for Ukrainian refugees**

**compared to the general workforce**

mid-2024 SEIS UNHCR survey
2023 Eurostat Labour Force Survey

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Input:
and control groups being on similar trajectories before mine opening. This assumption is

discussed below when we investigate the balance of treatment and control areas. In particular,

we test for differences in outcomes in areas where mining has not started and compare this to

areas farther away.

While we cannot show the exogeneity of the opening year to local socioeconomic variables,

this assumption has been made in previous literature (e.g. Aragon and Rud, 2015; Benshaul

Tolonen, 2018, 2019; Kotsadam and Tolonen, 2016, von der Goltz and Barnwal, 2019). In

addition, Benshaul-Tolonen (2018, 2019) who explore gold mining, in particular, point to (i)

the rapid increase in large-scale gold mining that occurred during the recent mineral price

supercycle, (ii) the dominance of large multinational firms who are not relying on local labor

market conditions, (iii) and their lower reliance on local infrastructure compared with bulkier

metals and minerals, as gold mining firms may fly out their resources. Despite this, the

assumption of exogenous opening year or exact location remain untested.

In a second method, we use a spatial lag model. Such a model allows for nonlinear effects with

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Input:
Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

**The only reliable timeseries of the**

**number of Ukrainians in Poland over**

**the past decade is social insurance**

**data on insured Ukrainian nationals,**

**though it accounts only for workers.**
The focus on workers rather than on the entire group does not change much in the data from before February 2022, as the previous influx consisted mainly of Ukrainians seeking employment in Poland. However, the actual number of employed Ukrainian nationals must have been higher. First, certain types of legal work often undertaken by temporary employees do not require Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

**Chart 4. Age and gender structure of Ukrainian refugees**

**Most of the refugees from Ukraine**

**currently living in Poland are women**

**and children, though over half of**

**the total population is of working**

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Input:
On 25 April 2023, in the midst of significant arrivals from Sudan, the Transition President promulgated
[Decree No. 0648/PT/PM/MATDBG/2023 implementing the asylum Law (Decret d’application de la loi d’asile](https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2091861/645b938a4.pdf)
[n°0648/PT/PM/MATDBG/2023 portant modalités d’application de la loi du 31 décembre 2020). This 2023](https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2091861/645b938a4.pdf)
Decree establishes the measures to operationalize the provisions of the 2020 asylum Law. Henceforth, the
combined set of legal instruments, comprising the 2020 asylum Law and the 2023 Decree, is referred to as
the asylum legislation.

A data mention with a proper name: dataset, survey, database, index, census, registry, or information system.

A data mention described by its characteristics or producer rather than a proper name.

A data mention that only generally references data, information, or statistics.


Input:
UNHCR (2023). Poland: Multi-Sector Needs Assessment — Results Overview (MSNA 2023), October, https://data.unhcr.org/fr/documents/details/104427 UNHCR (2025a). Poland: Socio-Economic Insights Survey in Poland - Results Analysis (SEIS 2024). UNHCR, October, https://data.unhcr.org/en/documents/ details/115045 UNHCR (2025b). High employment rates, but low wages: a poverty assessment of Ukrainian refugees in neighboring countries, Regional Refugee Response for the Ukraine Situation, Regional Bureau for Europe, UNHCR.

UNHCR (2025c). Ukraine Multi-year Strategy 2025 – 2027, UNHCR, November.

Urban M. (2022). Refugees will lift economy's potential, but challenges remain, Research Briefing | Poland. Oxford Economics, https://www.oxfordeconomics.
com/resource/refugees-in-poland-will-lift-economys-potential-but-challengesremain/

Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland 47

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Input: but has negative labour market effects due to increased competition for jobs among workers. However, little of these theoretical negative labour market effects can be seen in empirical data. This is because immigrant workers encourage further specialisation among native workers and firms, which increases productivity and offsets the negative effects. The same effects can be expected in the case of refugees entering the Polish labour market – besides increasing labour supply and competing with Polish workers, they provide new skills, ideas, and allow Polish workers to specialize in higher value-added tasks. These effects were included in the estimates of the impact of Ukrainian refugees on Polish GDP by Monitor Deloitte (2022) and Oxford Economics (2022), but these estimates were based on literature rather than Polish empirical data. In Deloitte’s 2024 study, these effects were omitted due to a lack of empirical data with which to calibrate them specifically. This study uses available data, albeit limited, to create a conservative scenario that includes positive impacts on productivity.

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Input:
As of September 2024, Indonesia is host to 11,735 refugees and asylum-seekers (6,548 families)
residing primarily in urban areas throughout the Indonesian archipelago. Almost half of all refugees
and asylum seekers are from Afghanistan, followed by Myanmar, Somalia, and 49 other countries.
UNHCR has a country office in Jakarta and field presence in Aceh, Medan, Makassar, Pekanbaru, and
Tanjung Pinang.

While Indonesia is not signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention, there are provisions for refugee
protection embedded within domestic law (including the 1945 Constitution, the 1999 Human Rights
Law, and the 2016 Presidential Regulation on the Handling of Refugees) and Indonesia generally
respects the right to seek asylum and the principle of non-refoulement. UNHCR continues to work to
advance opportunities for refugee inclusion and participation in Indonesia, including by seeking to
improve access to self-reliance and to national education, health, civil registration, and social systems.

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Input:
Displaced
 people
 and
 their
 host
 communities
 in
 South-‐East
 Myanmar
 currently
 face
 a
number
 of
 protection-‐related
 risks
 and
 problems
 such
 as
 the
 lack
 of
 civil
 documentation
(including
 birth
 registration,
 family
 lists
 and
 identity
 documentation
 in
 remote
 areas),
landmines,
 access
 to
 land
 and
 livelihoods,
 forced
 labour,
 forced
 recruitment,
 forced
contribution
 or
 taxation,
 trafficking,
 gender-‐based
 violence
 and,
 in
 some
 cases,
restrictions
 of
 movement.
 The
 protection
 concerns
 are
 often
 exacerbated
 for
 IDPs
 and,
potentially,
 refugees
 upon
 return.

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Input:
A
 profiling
 exercise
 covering
 both
 the
 registered
 and
 unregistered
 refugee
 population
residing
 in
 the
 temporary
 shelters
 in
 Thailand,
 will
 be
 carried
 out
 by
 the
 Mae
 Fah
 Luang
Foundation
 on
 behalf
 of
 UNHCR
 in
 2013-‐2014.
 The
 exercise
 will
 permit
 updating
 of
 data
on
 areas
 of
 origin
 (Regions/States,
 districts
 and
 townships,
 and
 village
 tracts/villages)
and
 will
 assess
 the
 intentions
 of
 refugees,
 whether
 that
 would
 be
 for
 eventual
 voluntary
return,
 resettlement
 to
 a
 third
 country
 or
 other
 durable
 solution
 possibilities.
 For
 those
refugees
 that
 intend
 to
 return,
 information
 about
 their
 desired
 or
 intended
 destination
will
 be
 captured
 in
 the
 survey
 (this
 may
 include
 places
 of
 origin
 or
 prior
 habitual
residence,
 or
 other
 locations
 in
 Myanmar).
 The
 major
 focus
 of
 the
 survey
 is
 about
 future

5

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Input:
[Furthermore, Article 65 of the 2023 Decree specifies that refugees or asylum-seekers with a (provisional)](https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2091861/645b938a4.pdf)
residence permit have the right to reside and move within the Chadian territory, like Chadian nationals. This
legislation aligns with previous practices, and there has been no change in the duration and legality of stay
for refugees and asylum-seekers in Chad. In practice, renewals of asylum-seekers’ certificates and refugee
identity cards by the authorities continue without difficulty. Over 80 per cent of consulted asylum-seekers in
2021 reported no difficulties with the renewal of their asylum-seeker certificates.

Article 36 of the 2020 Asylum Law guarantees protection against refoulement. The 2023 Decree also
details specific provisions to ensure effective respect to the non-refoulement principles including Articles
51, 52 and 53. The Law also outlines legal provisions for cessation clauses, cancellation and revocation of
refugee status, adhering to international refugee law standards. Over the past three years, there has been
no documented case of refoulement involving a refugee or asylum-seeker, nor has there been any reported
case of the unlawful termination of refugee status. Despite over half of arriving asylum-seekers lacking
identity or civil registry documentation, there have been no issues reported regarding their admission to
the territory.

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Input:
A significant number of refugees are concentrated in the urban areas of Poland. For one, cities generally record lower unemployment rates and higher work productivity, though the costs of living remain higher than in rural areas.
According to the active population in the PESEL database, over 30% of all PESEL UKR holders had them issued in the country’s 12 biggest cities. At the same time, the results for the MSNA Poland 2023 survey suggest that these 12 biggest cities are inhabited by over 35% of refugees.

Refugees record higher levels of employment inclusion in European countries that have relatively better labour market situations. In countries with lower unemployment, refugees fare better in the labour market. Since women make up the majority of refugees of working age, the situation of women on the labour market is especially important. As such, female unemployment rates explain 36% of the variation in refugees from Ukraine employment rates in studies from 11 EU Member States [22]

**Chart 10.** Female unemployment and refugees from Ukraine employment in Europe

70%

**Chart 11.** Education attainment of Poles and Ukrainians

**Eurostat** Poland LFS 2022

**UNHCR**

**(2023)**

**NBP**

**(2022)**

**Ukrstat**

11% 56% 48% 46% 30% Refugees from Ukraine VII-VIII 2023

---
[22] After excluding Germany and Switzerland as outliers. 23 Due to possible differences in methodologies data from this surveys should not be directly compared

PESEL database
MSNA Poland 2023 survey
Poland LFS 2022
Eurostat

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Input:
**Total of Incidents** **[5]**

### Protection risks

##### Protection Risk I

**Discrimination and stigmatization.** Racism and xenophobia are mentioned by refugees and other
people in need of international protection as serious obstacles to their local integration into the
Brazilian society. Adults report that discrimination hinders their access to dignified housing and
the formal labor market, [6] while children refer to being bullied in school because of their origin. [7] In
Roraima state, the primary entry point for Venezuelans into Brazil, 44% of refugees and migrants
reported experiencing discrimination due to their nationality. This was most prevalent in the
workplace (37%), during job searches (30%), and while attempting to access healthcare (24%),
education (21%) and also while looking for housing (20%). [8 ]

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Input:
**populations in responding to and**

**shaping the assistance following a**

**disaster in the Venezuelan context.**

The cluster’s participation in this space

guarantees that affected populations are

placed at the heart of the emergency

response. Additionally, the different

needs and capacities of all these groups

will shape the response plan and how

cluster partners and affected populations

interact through all the phases of the

Humanitarian Programme Cycle (HPC),

guiding the necessary workplans.

During the meeting of October, the new

framework of AAP was presented, and it

was revised jointly by its members. This

framework was created with the support

and accompaniment of the Humanitarian

Country Team and the Resident and

Humanitarian Coordinator. The WG

coordinator shared the minimum

commitments of the framework with

the members and opened the floor for

discussions. The PC suggested some

**coordinated the "La Carnada" play**

**in Petare in collaboration with the**

**Taller Experimental de Teatro/ Center**

**for Artistic Creation (TET), IOM, and**

**UNHCR on September 23rd and 24th.**

This The TET is a theatral group based

in Caracas, Venezuela that was founded

on December 11, 1972, by Eduardo Gil

under the heart of the Central University

of Venezuela (UCV) with the purpose

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Input:
An inflow of migrants can constitute more than just an increase in the labour supply. Typically, in theoretical models an increase in the number of workers lowers the amount of capital per worker thus lowering productivity until firms invest to return the capital-worker ratio to normal, returning productivity to the previous level (Borjas, 2019). However, immigrants bring new skills to the workforce, extending the scope of specialisation and thus likely making workers more productive.
Panel econometric studies from the past decade found, that immigration improves not just GDP or GDP per person (Ortega and Peri, 2014), but has also a causal positive impact for labour productivity (Jaumotte et al., 2016), GDP per capita growth rate (Aleksynska and Tritah, 2015), and total factor productivity (Peri, 2012).

13 E.g. vice-president of Polish Development Found Bartosz Marczuk estimated it at around 16 billion PLN, but this estimation also included spending of NGOs which was combined with spendings of local governments [Polska pomoc dla Ukrainy 2022 - ile kosztowała? - Infor.pl.](https://www.infor.pl/prawo/nowosci-prawne/5635962,Polska-pomoc-dla-Ukrainy-2022-ile-kosztowala.html) 14 For example, found by Beerli and Peri (2017), Tabellini (2020), Cattaneo et al. (2015), Foged and Peri (2016), D’Amuri and Peri (2014), Ortega and Verdugo (2014), Peri and Sparber (2009).

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Input:
Data sources: UNHCR PRIMES.  For more information or to contribute, please contact UNHCR RBSA DIMA (rsarbdima@unhcr.org)

The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations

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Input:
7. The MSNA, which ran in 7 countries: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Republic of Moldova, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia 8. Equivalized as per [Eurostat methodology. Essentially income per person, but with household members beyond the first one](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Glossary:Equivalised_income) assigned weights less than 1.
9. With the poverty line defined as 50% of the median national equivalized income 10. This figure differs from the one reported in the [previous year’s publication due to changes to methodology, which includes a](https://data.unhcr.org/en/documents/download/108068) different treatment of households that report zero income

**4**

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Input:
In Chapter 3, we estimate the economic impact of refugees from Ukraine in Poland in general equilibrium Deloitte D.Climate model. This is the gold standard of economic modelling on the macro-level, which comprehensively accounts for the supply side of the economy including labour supply and productivity, and the demand side including consumption as well as taxation. Unfortunately, such macroeconomic models cannot account for how exactly refugees and other migrants enable native workers to specialise in better paid professions (occupational upgrading), or how firms allow for new skills by adapting different production technologies. As such, our estimates should be treated as a conservative lower bound of the effect.

Furthermore, in Chapter 4, we move beyond theoretical modelling, to examine empirical studies on how immigrants and refugees impact not just output, but labour productivity as well. This effect comes not from traditional supply-demand analysis, but from increased specialisation.
Immigrants enable occupational upgrading of residents, supply new skills to firms, enter household works services that allow highly productive native women to increase labour supply, and exhibit high rates of entrepreneurship.

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Input:
Among the 23% of individuals reported to have mental health or psychosocial problems affecting daily functioning (such as the ability to get out of bed, care for oneself or others, or carry out daily activities such as cooking, going to school), 46% (47% of women and girls; 42% of men and boys) reported trying to access support. This means that more than half (54%) of individuals experiencing such problems did not try to access support, which may be due to multiple factors, including stigma, mental health awareness, or other access barriers.

**20**

(N=4,053) Of those individuals who reported trying to access support, almost all (96% overall; 97% of women, 94% of men) reported successfully accessing and receiving some sort of support. This high rate of access is partly explained by the inclusion of both formal services, such as psychotherapy, psychiatric care, or structured group interventions, and informal support, such as help from family, friends, employers, or spiritual leaders. By encompassing a broad spectrum of support mechanisms, the findings capture the diverse ways individuals seek and receive assistance, highlighting the importance of informal networks in complementing formal MHPSS services.

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Input:
rush. During this period, annual gold production has increased by 700 percent, as shown in

Figure 1. It is the expansion that has happened during this recent gold rush that is used in this

analysis to understand the socioeconomic effects of mining. The high international gold price

was a driving factor in the expansion of small-scale mining, such as the 2,700% increase in gold

mining territory around the Offin River between 2008 and 2012 (Hausermann et al., 2018).

Between 2006 and 2012, two large-scale mines opened in Ghana, but no mine closed down

(Table 1) possibly due to the high gold price increasing profitability and extending life length.

The expansion across artisanal small-, medium-, and large-scale mining contributed to an

increase in total production that rose from 541,147 oz in 1990 to 3,119,823 oz in 2009 according

official Ghana statistics (Bloch and Owusu, 2012). This production increase led to an increased

sector contribution to GDP from 4,83% (1990) to 5,78% (2009), alongside export value of

US$304m in 1990, US$702m in 2000, and US$2246 m in 2008, reaching 43% of national

exports in 2008. Mining related foreign direct investment (FDI) also rose from US$165m to

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Input:
Securing
 durable
 solutions
 for
 displaced
 populations
 should
 be
 an
 integral
 component
of
 the
 peace
 process,
 and
 the
 engagement
 of
 UNHCR
 and
 other
 actors
 in
 support
 to
durable
 solutions
 should
 be
 located
 within
 a
 broader
 peace-‐building
 framework.
 In
addition
 to
 advocating
 for
 the
 participation
 of
 IDPs
 and
 refugees
 in
 the
 peace
negotiations,
 activities
 in
 support
 of
 durable
 solutions
 should
 be
 grounded
 in
 sound
conflict
 analysis.
 The
 provision
 of
 assistance
 should
 be
 conflict-‐sensitive,
 minimizing
unintended
 negative
 impact
 while
 maximising
 its
 peace-‐building
 impact,
 and
 use
 “Do
 No
Harm”
 approaches
 to
 contribute
 at
 building
 trust
 and
 supporting
 the
 peace-‐building
process.
 Co-‐existence
 projects
 and
 other
 activities
 should
 be
 prioritised
 in
 support
 of
reintegration.
 Activities
 such
 as
 peace
 education
 and
 conflict
 resolution
 training
 may
 be
undertaken
 even
 prior
 to
 an
 organised
 voluntary
 return.

Refugees
 and
 IDPs
 will
 frequently
 opt
 to
 spread
 risk
 and
 to
 cushion
 the
 impact
 of
 return
by
 having
 some
 family
 members
 remaining
 outside
 the
 country,
 or
 move
 elsewhere
within
 the
 country
 to
 pursue
 migration
 strategies.
 This
 should
 be
 facilitated
 and
 not
viewed
 as
 a
 failure
 of
 the
 reintegration
 process.

**6.** **NATIONAL
 OWNERSHIP
 AND
 CO-‐ORDINATION**

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Input:
Among adolescent girls aged 15- 17 who faced access barriers (N=13), the lack of knowledge took the lead ahead of the waiting times and financial barriers. Moreover, compared to women, adolescent girls reported lower levels of trust in local healthcare providers. For all young women aged 18-24 who reported barriers (N=30), the most significant were long waiting times and inability to make an appointment.

Among pregnant and breastfeeding women (N=441), 5% reported facing barriers in accessing SRH services. For those experiencing barriers, half lacked knowledge about where to access SRH services and one in five did not trust local healthcare providers, in addition to facing language barriers.

Women with a disability reported more barriers with 11% across the region (N=29) compared to those without disability (5%).

An in-depth assessment is needed to better understand sexual and reproductive health (SRH) needs, the role of SRH access barriers in decisions to visit Ukraine, and how these barriers vary among women of different age groups, pregnant and breastfeeding women, and women with disabilities.

**Support services for survivors of gender-based**

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Input:
### **Verification Exercise**

UNHCR is undertaking a country-wide verification exercise in 2024. The project enables UNHCR staff
to systematically connect with and update registration data for every refugee and asylum seeker in
Indonesia.  UNHCR protection/registration teams are updating family composition and recording
information on specific needs and vulnerabilities, skills, work experience, education levels, and family
connections outside Indonesia. The information collected will provide a clean and accurate set of data
that will enable UNHCR to better develop and target programming for the refugee population and will
assist in identifying individuals who may qualify for solutions outside Indonesia.

©UNHCR/Amanda Jufrian

UNHCR / 1 November 2024 10

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Input:
_Sona Tahery, a young Afghan woman, found safety in Brazil after fleeing severe restrictions on women’s rights and access to work_
_in her home country. After spending a year as a refugee in Iran, she arrived with her sister and brother-in-law, seeking a new_
_beginning. Now, at Todos Irmãos Shelter in Guarulhos, she is rebuilding her life with dignity and hope._ © _UNHCR// Diego Baravelli_

##### Protection Risk III

**Gender equality and access to rights for refugee women and girls.** Refugee women and girls face
significant barriers to the realization of their rights due to gender roles and power disbalances.
Regardless of their nationality, women and girls face higher unemployment rates, less access to
education opportunities, greater exposure to gender-based violence and additional caregiving
responsibilities. [26] Members of the LGTBQIA+ community face discrimination and stigmatization
due to their sexual orientation and gender identity, and experience barriers in their access to
dignified livelihoods with some of them, especially transgender women, resorting to survival sex
as one of the few viable means to earn a living in the country. [27]

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Input:
only statistically significant for boys at an effect size of 6.6 percentage points.

**Table 5 OLS estimates of birth outcomes, infant survival, and child health in the DHS individual-**

**level analysis**

PANEL A                 size at birth            infant mortality (<12months)         antenatal visits
small average large all boys girls # visits at least 1
active*mine 0.022 0.053 -0.075* -0.041* -0.066** -0.020 -0.151 -0.007
(0.028) (0.041) (0.041) (0.022) (0.030) (0.035) (0.331) (0.028)
mine -0.010 0.071** -0.061** 0.004 0.008 0.001 0.153 0.000
(0.019) (0.028) (0.030) (0.015) (0.020) (0.024) (0.241) (0.019)
active -0.010 0.054** -0.044 0.002 0.014 -0.012 0.012 0.002
(0.016) (0.026) (0.027) (0.014) (0.022) (0.018) (0.209) (0.012)

Observations 6,771 6,771 6,771 5,356 2,718 2,638 5,704 5,704
R-squared 0.031 0.054 0.059 0.135 0.160 0.152 0.186 0.062
Mean of dep var. 0.136 0.359 0.505 0.073 0.08 0.066 5.79 0.941

PANEL B in the last 2 weeks, had: anthropometrics (WHO) in sd has
fever

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Input:
0.062
Mean of dep var. 0.136 0.359 0.505 0.073 0.08 0.066 5.79 0.941

PANEL B in the last 2 weeks, had: anthropometrics (WHO) in sd has
fever     cough    diarrhea ht/a       wt/a      wt/ht health card

active*mine -0.035 -0.061* 0.042 -3.532 -5.208 -0.641 0.014
(0.037) (0.033) (0.027) (11.472) (9.283) (8.948) (0.027)

mine -0.002 -0.006 -0.038 -0.828 3.481 3.853 -0.006
(0.031) (0.028) (0.024) (10.385) (8.574) (7.468) (0.022)

active 0.023 -0.003 -0.033** -1.904 5.265 9.433* 0.009
(0.020) (0.020) (0.016) (5.942) (5.304) (5.183) (0.012)

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Input:
Macroeconomic modelling generally finds that immigration increases output, while cross-country econometric estimates find also positive impacts on labour productivity. The first approach builds a theoretical model of the economy calibrated to the particular circumstances, which allows us to simulate counterfactuals and observe all changes in the economy.
The second approach relies on empirical data, usually over many years and countries, trying to isolate the effect of immigration, but gives no information on the channels through which these effects operate. In the present case it would not be practical to follow anything else than the first approach. Unfortunately, it relies on the canonical labour market model.
As Peri (2014) elaborates, that model assumes that immigration is simply a shift in the labour supply for a given labour demand and given labour supply of native workers. It further assumes that immigrants are essentially identical to natives in that they enter the same 38

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Input:
It
 builds
 upon
 a
 separate
 discussion
 paper
 dated
 1
 October
 2012,
 which
 sets
 out
 a
framework
 for
 voluntary
 repatriation
 for
 Myanmar
 refugees
 from
 Thailand.
 The
 papers
should
 form
 the
 basis
 of
 a
 more
 detailed
 operational
 strategy
 for
 2013-‐2015,
 and
 should
also
 serve
 as
 the
 first
 step
 towards
 a
 consultative
 multi-‐stakeholder
 process,
 engaging
Government,
 civil
 society,
 UN
 and
 NGO
 partners,
 donors
 and
 refugees
 and
 IDPs
themselves,
 to
 elaborate
 a
 shared
 vision
 and
 strategy
 for
 support
 to
 durable
 solutions
 in
the
 South-‐East.
 The
 document
 outlines
 UNHCR’s
 general
 principles
 and
 standards
 as
well
 as
 context-‐specific
 objectives
 and
 activities.

**2.** **CONTEXT**

**2.1.
 Political
 environment**

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Input:
_UNHCR
 Discussion
 Paper
 –15
 June
 2013_

from
 the
 temporary
 shelters
 in
 Thailand
 to
 their
 place
 of
 origin,
 the
 majority
 of
 whom
are
 single
 males
 who
 stated
 that
 they
 had
 returned
 to
 assess
 the
 security
 situation
 and
start
 re-‐establishing
 their
 livelihood
 before
 the
 return
 of
 other
 family
 members.
 The
dimensions
 of
 this
 spontaneous
 return
 movement
 have
 been,
 so
 far,
 negligible.

While
 the
 dimensions
 of
 IDP
 return
 movements
 remain
 extremely
 difficult
 to
 assess,
some
 37,000
 IDPs
 are
 estimated
 by
 the
 The
 Border
 Consortium
 (TBC)
 to
 have
 returned
home
 or
 resettled
 in
 surrounding
 areas
 between
 August
 2011
 and
 July
 2012 [3] .

If
 the
 current
 trend
 of
 political
 and
 socio-‐economic
 reforms
 continues
 and
 as
 larger
political
 events
 draw
 closer,
 such
 as
 the
 ASEAN/AEC
 agenda
 with
 Myanmar
 as
 Chair
 in
2014,
 a
 national
 census
 in
 2014,
 and
 national
 elections
 in
 2015,
 then
 the
 momentum
 to
translate
 cease-‐fire
 negotiations
 into
 peace
 agreements
 may
 increase.
 This
 may
 lead
 to
an
 increase
 in
 the
 number
 of
 spontaneous
 returns
 and
 the
 possibility
 of
 sudden
demands
 upon
 UNHCR
 to
 facilitate
 the
 voluntary
 repatriation
 of
 refugees.

**2.2.
 Protection
 environment**

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Regionally, 6% of men aged 18–34 report a disability, compared to 2% of women in this age group. A similar trend is observed for the 35–59 age group, with 8% of men and 4% of women reporting a disability respectively. The higher prevalence among men is likely related to the fact that men without a disability are less likely to leave Ukraine.

0-4 5-17 18-34 35-59 60+ years old (N=19,622) These findings suggest that health services should be tailored to address these gender and agerelated dynamics, as should the dissemination of information about available services.

**9**

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Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

**Chart 19. Tertiary education and corresponding** **Chart 20. Ukrainian refugees median net wages by**

**occupational groups shares** **educational attainment**

4,300 4,275

**Addressing occupational downgrading**

**could bring macroeconomic benefits.**
To demonstrate the potential impact, a simulation was conducted in which the underrepresentation of refugees in higher-paying occupations was reduced by half. It was not assumed that there would be no differences between refugees and Polish citizens, as some barriers (such as Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland country-specific knowledge and business networks) are more difficult to address than others (such as language skills and occupational licensing). However, if the gap was narrowed by half, the average wage of refugees would increase by approximately 10%. Assuming that the productivity increase is equivalent to the wage increase, this would result in PLN 3.5 billion of added 40% Tertiary education share 25-64 age group surveys Managers, professionals, and technicians ZUS-insured employment share

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THE ROLE OF HOUSING SUPPORT AND EMPLOYMENT FACILITATION IN ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY OF REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE

**Regular employment** **[11]** **- key for refugee household**

**prosperity**
The income composition of refugee households above and below the poverty line is very different.
Regular employment represents 74% of total income in the wealthier group compared to just 35% for lower earners. In part, this is explained by higher labor force participation [12] (68% vs 49%), which is tied to differences in household composition. The age dependency ratio [13], for example, stands at 52% in the higher earning group versus 77% for households with a lower income. Additionally, however, members of households above the poverty line are significantly more successful in finding work - their unemployment rate is twice as low at 10%, and half as many are working part time (14% vs 31%).

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To show the robustness of these results, we have tried three alternative strategies for each of

the outcomes. In row 2, we drop the sample that lives 20 to 40 km away, since they might be

affected by the mine; in row 3, we drop the sample that was surveyed two years prior to mine

opening; in row 4, we add closest mine fixed effects; and in row 5 we cluster on the closest

mine. The coefficients do not change much, even if some magnitudes become bigger and the

estimates more significant. However, as in the results using DHS data, these estimates are not

precisely measured – few are statistically significant because the standard errors appear large.

Women are 7.4 to 10.4 percentage points more likely to work in service or sales if they live

close to a mine (depending on the estimations in panel A columns 4, only one statistically

significant estimate). Women close to mines are 2.5 to 2.6 percentage points more likely to

work in mining (only one statistically significant estimate).

Men, on the other hand, (results shown in panel B of table 12), are significantly more likely to

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to work, but only in a designated health care center, and for no longer than five years without the possibility of extension.
In February 2022, Ukrainian psychologists were allowed to provide services to other Ukrainian citizens, but only for 18 months.
While such changes are likely to be extended, they do not motivate Ukrainian refugees – unsure, if they will be allowed to continue practice in the long term – to acquire the necessary skills, for instance to improve language fluency or invest in professional courses. Instead, the refugees may prefer to seek opportunities in other countries or change their line of work to one that will be more accessible, but less valuable for the Polish economy.

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Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

# Non-technical summary

Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland Swift legal action facilitated labour market integration of refugees. After the beginning of the full-scale war on 26th February 2022, the European Union activated the Temporary Protection Directive on 4th March 2022, and the Polish parliament passed a special act to facilitate refugee integration on 12th March 2022. Ukrainian refugees in Poland were granted instant access to the job market, health care, and education. The authorities granted people escaping Ukraine legal residency for a period of eighteen months and enabled them to access digital services and basic administrative systems like PESEL.
Thus, the policies that have previously hampered job market integration of refugees in other contexts, such as temporary labour market bans (Fasani, Frattini, & Minale, 2021) and forced dispersals (Fasani, Frattini, & Minale, 2022), have been avoided.

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_On World Refugee Day, refugees and local families in Porto Alegre's Sarandi neighborhood shared a meal and received support._
_The event, organized by UNHCR partners, acknowledged the solidarity shown during recent floods and celebrated the rebuilding_
_of lives by refugees from Venezuela, Haiti, Colombia, and Afghanistan, among others._ © _UNHCR/Ricardo Ara._

### Challenges & Opportunities

Since 2018, Brazil has supported refugees and migrants from Venezuela through a comprehensive
humanitarian federal initiative known as “Operacao Acolhida” . The Operation primarily focuses
on the northern State of Roraima, the main entry point for Venezuelans into Brazil, where
reception, documentation, shelter, and other forms of humanitarian assistance are provided.

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and girls. Maternal and reproductive health services remain underdeveloped in some areas, struggling
to be fully effective due to a lack of material and financial support.

**5.2** **Social inclusion**

The most significant differences or restrictions in terms of socio-economic development affecting refugees
with particular characteristics are:

**a.** **Access to biometric identity cards and unique identifier number:** The continued lack of access to

legally recognized identity cards for refugees issued by the competent authority in Chad, ANATS, and
national identification numbers, challenges their inclusion into national system and limits their socioeconomic integration in the country.

**b.** **Access to civil registry civil status documents:** The low percentage of registered births, due to

significant deficiencies in the Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) system in Chad, especially in
rural areas, exposes refugees born in Chad to the risk of statelessness.

R E F U G E E P O L I C Y R E V I E W F R A M E W O R K > **R E P U B L I C O F C H A D** 13

Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS)

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of human trafficking in different states of

Venezuela through a service mapping

exercise that was implemented.

**IX. Protection Mainstreaming**

**Training**

**The PC in collaboration with the**

of Performing Arts, over 140 people

attended the play, including community

members, representatives from NGOs

and INGOs, and agency representatives.

Drawing on testimonies and real

data, and with the technical support

of UNHCR, IOM, and the Venezuela

Protection Cluster, the authors of the

play have crafted an original and avant
garde dramaturgy that highlights the

issue of TiP and its associated risks. Two

additional performances are scheduled

for the last week of November (in

Petare) and another in December in

Chichiriviche de La Costa, La Guaira,

in commemoration of the 16 days of

activism for the International Day for the

Eradication of Violence against Women.

**VI. Annual TiP Bulletin 2022-2023**

**After one year of the creation of the**

**6**

**WGTiP, an annual bulletin was pub-**

**lished in October.** This document

consolidates information from the quar
terly bulletins of 2022 and 2023 and

provides a context analysis of TiP in

Venezuela, raising awareness on new

information and dynamics and highlights

counter-trafficking efforts of members

with a specific focus on activities for the

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Input:
agri- service profess- manual not earns works
culture sales ional labor working cash all year
PANEL A: Women

active*mine -0.025 0.024 -0.017* 0.012 0.006 0.054** -0.013
(0.039) (0.031) (0.009) (0.021) (0.023) (0.026) (0.033)
mine -0.025 0.056* -0.001 -0.012 -0.018 -0.069*** -0.012
(0.031) (0.029) (0.008) (0.018) (0.020) (0.022) (0.024)
active 0.014 -0.000 -0.006 0.009 -0.016 -0.037** -0.007
(0.015) (0.016) (0.006) (0.011) (0.012) (0.015) (0.016)

Observations 12,176 12,176 12,176 12,176 12,176 9,262 7,085
R-squared 0.350 0.103 0.124 0.024 0.234 0.095 0.042
Mean of dep var. 0.237 0.358 0.045 0.117 0.739 0.891 0.877

PANEL B: Men

active*mine 0.050 0.020 0.027 -0.069* 0.006 -0.013 -0.015
(0.051) (0.020) (0.026) (0.036) (0.023) (0.028) (0.051)
mine -0.060 0.002 0.000 0.041 -0.018 -0.009 0.066*
(0.042

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(0.036) (0.023) (0.028) (0.051)
mine -0.060 0.002 0.000 0.041 -0.018 -0.009 0.066*
(0.042) (0.016) (0.020) (0.030) (0.020) (0.028) (0.039)
active 0.000 0.002 -0.001 -0.029 -0.016 -0.107*** -0.025
(0.021) (0.014) (0.015) (0.020) (0.012) (0.039) (0.028)

Observations 7,157 7,157 7,157 7,157 7,157 4,374 2,794
R-squared 0.290 0.415 0.084 0.183 0.076 0.107 0.104
Mean of dep var. 0.328 0.111 0.137 0.214 0.209 0.928 0.841

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The overlap between certain mental health problems, such as difficulties with memory, concentration, or self-care, and the criteria used to assess disability further demonstrates the complex interplay between these factors. The data also suggests that structural and systemic differences between countries may influence outcomes, as reflected in the varying rates reported. These findings highlight the critical need for inclusive MHPSS strategies that address the unique needs of individuals with disabilities and provide targeted interventions to reduce barriers and ensure equitable access to support. Additionally, further analysis of country-specific contexts could help uncover underlying factors driving these disparities.

**% OF INDIVIDUALS WHO REPORTED EXPERIENCING**

**A MENTAL HEALTH OR PSYCHOSOCIAL PROBLEM BY**

**DISABILITY STATUS AND COUNTRY**

With disability Without disability Regional Romania Hungary Poland Bulgaria Estonia Lithuania Slovakia Czechia Latvia Moldova (N=17,934)

**25**

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**positive impact on labour productivity.**
In the earlier report, the overall positive impact of refugees was reduced based on conservative assumptions, in the absence of available/clear data on the increased competition in the labour market. The model notably considered lower wages and higher unemployment among native workers. However, recent data indicates that these concerns did not materialize.
Instead, Polish workers have moved on to better paid occupations, and the economy has benefited from a larger pool of talent, enabling deeper specialization and increased productivity growth.

##### Remaining challenges

**Despite significant progress in**

**integrating refugees into the labour**

**market, several challenges persist.**
Refugees are half as likely to have an employment contract as Polish citizens and few of them achieve high incomes.
Although refugees have been moving on to more desirable professions at a faster rate than other groups in the economy, their jobs continue to be disproportionately skewed towards elementary occupations.
These issues are most evident among those with university diplomas, but those with below university education also face obstacles. As of June 2024, there were several interconnected issues:

**•** **There is a disparity between the**

**educational attainment and labour**

**market position of refugees,**

**reflecting their significant over-**

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NAVIGATING HEALTH AND WELL-BEING CHALLENGES FOR REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE

### **Contents**

###### Executive summary 3 Context  5 Methodology  6 Limitations  7 Sample demographics  8 Health analysis  10 Mental Health and Psychosocial Support (MHPSS) 19 Recommendations 28

### **Acknowledgements**

We gratefully acknowledge the contributions of many individuals and organizations who contributed to this report. The regional analysis was facilitated by the Regional SEIS Health and Mental Health Sector Analysis Group, co-coordinated by Ardita Tahirukaj (WHO), Sandra Harlass (UNHCR), Monica Zikusooka (WHO) and Sofia Casas (UNHCR). The data analysis was conducted by Irma Sirutyte (UNHCR). Writing of the report was led by the co-coordinators along with Arianna Pearlstein (UN Women), Iuliana Gutu (UNFPA), Leah James (UNICEF), Liqun Gao (UNHCR), and Luna Mehrain (UNFPA).

Thanks to Jad Ghosn and the Regional Bureau for Europe (UNHCR) for their guidance, review and support on the regional SEIS analysis for health and MHPSS.

Acknowledgements include also those who reviewed the report: Agron Gashi (UNICEF), Chiaki Ito (IOM), Erin Autumn Neale (IOM), Greisy Trejo (IFRC), Heide Rieder (IOM), Melita Murkom (WHO), Pieter Ventevogel (UNHCR), Ursula Wagner (IOM).

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would increase GDP by 0.9-1.3% – the mid to higher bound of our estimate.
Third, Urban (2022) uses an Oxford Economics model to estimate the impact of Ukrainian refugees on the potential GDP by 2030 and 2050, including a positive shock to the total factor productivity growth. This yields GDP higher by 1.5-2.6% by 2030, significantly higher than our long-term estimate – the higher result is likely due to the increase in TFP that we do not include in our modelling. Fourth, Monitor Deloitte (2022) provided an early wide estimate of the economic impact of Ukrainian refugees.
This would translate into 0.9-2.4% higher GDP, also due to the possibility of a positive productivity shock. We review the relevant literature on the impacts of immigration on productivity in Chapter 4.

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mean value of the independent variable is 0.085 - that is, on average women are close to 0.085

mines. Conditional on being close to a mine, the main independent variable is 1.33 - that is, a

woman sampled close to a mine is close to 1.33 mines on average. Panel C of table A3 shows

the effects on women’s labor market participation. We note that the estimates are similar in

direction as before, where mines are positively associated with service and sales jobs and with

cash earnings, but negatively associated with agriculture and professional jobs.

Panel D of table A3 shows the results if we drop the part of the sample that lives 20 km to 40

km away from a mine, and if we drop those that are sampled two years before mine opening.

The rationale for this is to have a cleaner control group, since those that live just outside our 20

km cutoff distance may also be “treated” by the mine, and the investment phase of the mine

that precedes initial production can generate substantial employment. Overall, the effects do

not change much except making the cash earnings coefficient larger and more significant. The

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Source: Deloitte own elaboration based on mid-2024 SEIS UNHCR survey (Ukrainian refugees’ educational attainment and median net wages), 2023 Eurostat Labour Force Survey Eurostat (Polish citizens educational attainment), and mid-2024 ZUS administrative data (occupational groups).

**Widespread occupational licensing**

**is a serious obstacle to an efficient**

**use of Ukrainian refugees’ human**

**capital.** Poland has the third highest
number of regulated professions among the 28 European Union member states, according to European Commission’s Regulated Professions Database. This can be a problem, as occupational licensing is cited in the literature among the reasons for occupational downgrading of migrants.
Cassidy and Dacass (2021) found that in the United States, immigrants were significantly less likely to have a license than similar

#### **4.2 Access to regulated professions**

European Commission’s Regulated Professions Database

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Expanding community-based MHPSS services that integrate formal services and promote the use of informal supports will enhance service delivery.
Public awareness campaigns, tailored to both refugees and host communities, should aim to reduce stigma and improve knowledge of available support. Gender-responsive and age-sensitive approaches are necessary, particularly for adult men and adolescent boys, to encourage help-seeking behaviours and ensure that services are tailored to the specific needs of children and adolescents.
Lastly, further research is required to gain a deeper understanding of unmet health needs—including SRH and MHPSS needs—and the barriers to access, to inform more effective, inclusive, and contextsensitive interventions.

**4**

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increase in off-shore oil revenue accruing to municipalities, alongside increased illegal activity

by mayors (Caselli and Michaels, 2010). We estimate district level effects on living standards

(in mining districts, but no spillovers to adjacent districts, in line with Mamo et al, 2019), but

do not have further information on public spending by sector to put these effects in context to

expected changes. Political outcomes such as clientelism, corruption and reelection of local

36

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Deloitte’s D.Climate general equilibrium model finds that refugees from Ukraine contributed 0.7-1.1% to GDP cumulatively in 2023. In the long-term this effect will grow to 0.9-1.35% as the economy fully adjusts.
The increases in government revenue from direct and indirect taxes due to wages and private consumption of refugees from Ukraine was likewise modelled.
These increases amounted to 0.8-1.0% higher general government revenues in 2022, 1.3-1.6% in 2023, and 0.95-1.13% in the long term. This implies that, while there are no precise public data on the government support to refugees from Ukraine, while a government official quoted cost figures of 15-20 billion PLN in 2022 and around 5 billion in 2023 [50] have been already offset by refugees via taxes of 12.3-15.2 billion PLN in 2022 and 18.2-22.5 billion PLN in 2023.

All the modelling results are conservative lower bound estimates, as econometric studies from other countries have found immigration to have additionally a positive impact on labour productivity that cannot be accounted for using the available data.
These effects could stem from the growth in specialisation due to additional workers with different skillsets appearing on the labour market, e.g., occupational upgrading of native workers.

---
[50] E.g. vice-president of Polish Development Found Bartosz Marczuk estimated it at around 16 billion PLN, but this estimation also included spending of

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The regional analysis is grounded in consolidated data from the Socio-Economic Insights Survey (SEIS), conducted across ten countries: Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Republic of Moldova, Romania, and Slovakia. Data for the country-specific SEISs were collected through in-person interviews from May to July 2024.

The total sample size comprises **8,720 households** and **19,803 household members**, with respondents providing information on behalf of all individuals within their households.

**COUNTRY** **SAMPLE SIZE 2023** **SAMPLE SIZE 2024**

Bulgaria 1,054 1,072 Czechia 1,218 1,215 Estonia - 600 Hungary 682 801 Latvia - 600 Lithuania - 638 Moldova 890 622 Poland 5,645 1,290 Romania 1,222 1,008 Slovakia 819 874

**Total** **11,530** **8,720**

Each country adopted a unique sampling approach, dependent on factors such as the availability of sampling frames and information regarding population distribution by geographic area and accommodation type. A combination of different sampling methods was used, typically incorporating multiple stages and blending convenience sampling, cluster random sampling, and simple random sampling (the latter being exclusive to Romania). It is important to highlight that Hungary and Moldova modified its sampling approach, which limits the comparability of its results across years.

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Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland To account for refugees impact on economy shocks for economy were calibrated according to existing data.
As the refugees started coming to Poland by the end of February and in March 2022 it was assumed that their impact on the economy should be seen starting from the second quarter of 2022. As such their primary impact on yearly data was divided as between 2022 and 2023 setting 3⁄4 of it in 2022 and 1⁄4 in 2023. The total number of refugees was set according to the newest data from the PESEL registry (Chart 3. in Chapter 1). Their employment was calibrated to match data presented in Chapter 2. Changes in population and

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Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

**Box 1.** Inflow of savings from Ukraine

**Chart 13.** Income structure of Ukrainian refugee households

**5%** **1%**

Work (regular-, temporary-,and self-employment in Poland, remote employment in Ukraine Remittances from friends/relatives Polish government benefits (Family 500+, cash benefits, disability grants) Ukrainian government benefits (pensions, disability grants, parental benefits) Other (humanitarian organizations, other sources)

**Source:** Deloitte elaboration based on the MSNA Poland 2023. The work category includes regular employment, temporary work, self-employment
and remote work in Ukraine.

31 [Cudzoziemcy w polskim systemie ubezpieczeń społecznych (zus.pl)](https://www.zus.pl/documents/10182/2322024/Cudzoziemcy+w+polskim+systemie+ubezpiecze%C5%84+spo%C5%82ecznych_2022.pdf/) 32 According to NBP (2023), there were few respondents in this situation, and they most likely had secured other sources of income.

28 29

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The government of Chad continues to ensure the security of refugees and asylum-seekers through the
Humanitarian Workers and Refugee Detachment (DPHR). Generally, refugees are not more exposed to
[existing violence and crime. According to protection data collected through Project 21](https://response.reliefweb.int/west-and-central-africa/protection/projet-21) (‘regional protection
monitoring’) approximately 15 per cent of refugees and asylum-seekers claim to have been victims of
physical assault, but it is noteworthy that these cases occurred in the country of origin at the time of fleeing.

While rape and child marriage remain prohibited by Law, other forms of gender-based violence (GBV)
are insufficiently covered by existing Laws and policies to protect the Chadian and refugee populations.
The national policy to respond to GBV, in effect since 2011, applies in refugee camps and refugee hosting
villages but faces challenges due to limited resources (human and logistic) to fully implement this policy. The
referral mechanism for refugee victims for medical, legal and psychosocial support remains in place but its
effectiveness depends on the human and financial resources available in the relevant hosting areas.

protection data collected through Project 21

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45 Based on number of economically active people in III quarter of 2023 according to labour market survey.
46 E.g. vice-president of Polish Development Found Bartosz Marczuk estimated it at around 16 billion PLN, but this estimation also included spending of NGOs which was combined with spendings of local governments Polska pomoc dla Ukrainy 2022 - ile kosztowała? - Infor.pl.

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labour supply in Poland were offset by equivalent changes for Eastern Europe region [41] . It was also assumed that refugees should have higher spending needs which means a lower saving rate than natives.
Moreover, data shows that it is partially financed by savings they have in Ukrainian banks which was calibrated as them having negative saving rate while being offset by lowering investment levels in Eastern Europe [42] . Lastly, their productivity may differ from productivity of natives (Box 2) which also was taken into account.
In total there were three major sources of uncertainty: total level of employment, productivity, and impact on consumption.

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