Input:
The
 sustainability
 of
 IDP
 (and
 potentially,
 refugee)
 returns
 is
 also
 still
 hampered
 by
limited
 access
 to
 livelihood
 opportunities.
 At
 present,
 access
 to
 livelihood
 resources
 and
training
 opportunities
 are
 scarce.
 Returning
 IDPs
 and
 refugees
 may
 have
 lost
 the
productive
 assets
 needed
 to
 restart
 agriculture,
 while
 homes
 have
 been
 destroyed
 by
the
 conflict
 or
 have
 fallen
 into
 disrepair.

Additionally,
 distances
 are
 substantial
 between
 the
 temporary
 shelters
 in
 Thailand
 and
potential
 return
 areas.
 Many
 of
 the
 places
 of
 origin
 of
 registered
 refugees
 in
 Thailand
 are
particularly
 isolated
 and
 have
 received
 little
 investment
 in
 infrastructure.
 Investment
 in
repatriation
 infrastructure,
 including
 transit
 centres
 or
 way
 stations,
 will
 be
 required
 in
case
 of
 an
 organized
 repatriation
 movement.

**3.** **POPULATION
 OF
 CONCERN
 IN
 SOUTH-‐EAST
 MYANMAR**

**3.1.
 Refugees
 in
 Thailand**

UNHCR’s
 current
 area
 of
 operations
 in
 South-‐East
 Myanmar
 covers
 Kayin,
 Kayah,
 and
Mon
 States,
 and
 Taninthayri
 Regions.
 These
 are
 the
 primary
 places
 of
 origin
 of
 the
estimated
 128,876
 Myanmar
 refugees
 residing
 in
 the
 temporary
 shelters
 along
 the
border
 in
 Thailand,
 and
 are
 assumed
 to
 be
 the
 primary
 potential
 areas
 of
 return.

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Input:
_Note:_ Panel A shows the location of the gold mines that were active during the study period. Around each circle,
a 20-km radius is marked. These 40-km-wide areas are the baseline treatment areas in the analysis. Panel B shows
the 100-km treatment areas and the distribution of the DHS clusters. Road data is an alternative way of defining
distance from mines, but time series data on roads is not available.

**3.2 Household data**

We use microdata from the DHS, obtained from standardized surveys across years and

countries. We combine the respondents from all four DHS standard surveys in Ghana for which

there are geographic identifiers. The total data set includes 19,705 women (of which 12,392

live within 100 km of a mine) aged 15–49 from 137 districts. They were surveyed in 1993,

1998, 2003, and 2008, [6] and live in 1,623 survey clusters. Since the DHS surveys focus on

women, the surveys of women will be the main source of data. However, we also use the

surveys of men, which give us data from the same four survey years, but with a total number of

---
[6] The first mines were opened in 1990, prior to the first household survey. Ten mines were opened after the first

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Input:
emotional well-being, as well as local integration prospects. In this sense, some Afghan women
have reported a strict control exerted by male family members, which translates into their
confinement in the domestic realm.

##### Protection Risk IV

**Trafficking in persons, forced labor or slavery-like practices.** Although asylum seekers, refugees,
and other forcibly displaced persons have the same labor rights as nationals in Brazil, they
encounter several obstacles to their economic integration. The experience of displacement,
coupled with high levels of unemployment, informal labor, and poverty, heighten the risk of this
population to fall prey of human traffickers. According to official data, between 2021 and 2023,
355 refugees and migrants of all nationalities were rescued from forced labor or slavery-like
practices in Brazil from various economic sectors, primarily in timber trade, cassava cultivation,
clothing manufacturing, road transportation, and tobacco. [33 ]

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Input:
[The new asylum legislation - specifically Article 31 of the 2020 Law and Article 73 of the 2023 Decree](https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2091861/645b938a4.pdf)   provides for the issuance of refugee identity cards by the competent national authority. It outlines that the
refugee identity card is valid for five years, renewable and is issued for each refugee of 18 years old and
above. Despite this new asylum legislation, UNHCR continues to give substantial support to the Refugee
Government counterpart, CNARR, including by issuing individual refugee cards to adults, family refugee
attestations and household ration cards. There have been no changes in the documentation process for
adult refugees and asylum-seekers. Additionally, UNHCR continue to support CNARR to issue asylumseeker certificates valid for six months and their renewal.

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Input:
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)      (7)       (8) (9)
ln ln ln ln household level ln expenditure
wages wages wages pc total health hh
all women men exp. exp. food    housing   education energy

active*mine 0.520** 0.694*** 0.391 -0.178* -0.126 -0.069 0.316** -0.168 0.297**
(0.226) (0.241) (0.238) (0.093) (0.089) (0.095) (0.139) (0.199) (0.119)

Observations 6,226 2,914 3,312 7,522 7,522 7,396 7,420 6,541 4,752
R-squared 0.121 0.128 0.118 0.959 0.964 0.963 0.933 0.837 0.950

_controls_

individual Y Y Y

hh head Y Y Y Y Y Y
hh size Y Y Y Y Y
district fe Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
year fe Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

deflated N N N Y Y N N N N
mean (ln) 15.30 15.29 15.31 13.04 14.19 13.42 10.88 10.74 9.52

_Note:_ (1) Annual wages and salaries for individuals in all ages (nondeflated).
(2) Annual wages and salaries for women in all ages (nondeflated).
(3) Annual wages and salaries for men in all ages (nondeflated).
(4) Real per capita annual food and nonfood expenditure (regionally deflated).

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Input:
_UNHCR
 Discussion
 Paper
 –15
 June
 2013_

reintegration
 of
 refugees
 as
 is
 the
 norm
 in
 repatriation
 operations
 across
 the
 world.
 The
agreement
 would
 govern
 the
 procedures
 for
 entry
 into
 Myanmar
 and
 modalities
 for
reception,
 registration,
 immediate
 humanitarian
 assistance,
 and
 travel
 to
 places
 of
destination.
 Another
 key
 aspect
 will
 be
 access
 and
 monitoring
 of
 returnee
 areas,
 as
 well
as
 the
 immediately
 needed
 support
 to
 the
 reintegration
 process.

UNHCR’s
 2008
 Policy
 on
 Return
 and
 Reintegration
 defines
 reintegration
 as
 the
reduction
 and
 ultimately
 the
 disappearance
 of
 any
 factors
 that
 differentiate
 returnees
from
 other
 members
 of
 their
 community
 in
 terms
 of
 both
 their
 legal
 and
 socio-‐economic
status.
 Therefore,
 reintegration
 is
 a
 comprehensive,
 gradual
 and
 dynamic
 effort
 that
involves
 the
 establishment
 of
 conditions
 which
 enable
 returnees
 and
 their
 communities
to
 exercise
 their
 social,
 economic,
 civil,
 political
 and
 cultural
 rights,
 and
 on
 that
 basis
 to
enjoy
 peaceful,
 productive
 and
 dignified
 lives.

The
 definition
 of
 a
 comprehensive,
 multi-‐year
 strategy
 for
 return
 and
 reintegration
should
 therefore
 be
 framed
 by
 and
 support
 development
 plans.
 Strategic
 plans
 should
cover
 all
 key
 relevant
 sectors:
 legal,
 economic,
 social,
 and
 environmental,
 and
 guide
 the
division
 of
 roles
 and
 responsibilities
 between
 relief,
 development,
 public
 and
 private
stakeholders.

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Input:
**ZUS** - Zakład Ubezpieczeń Społecznych, Polish social security administration, also known as Social Insurance Institution.

44 Chart 1. Poland-Ukraine border movement balance and registered/active PESEL data 07 Chart 2. Ukrainians registered for social insurance 07 Chart 3. Number of Ukrainians registered in Poland for social insurance by sex 08 Chart 4. Age and gender structure of Ukrainian refugees 09 Chart 5. Ukrainian refugee households’ demographic composition 10 Chart 6. Local population shares of Ukrainian refugees 11 Chart 7. Income of Ukrainian refugee households by source 12 Chart 8. Ukrainian refugee household incomes from Poland and Ukraine in 2023 and 2024 12 Chart 9. Ukrainian refugee labour status 15 Chart 10. Ukrainian refugee median net wage 15 Chart 11. Main occupational groups of Ukrainian refugees, pre-war Ukrainians, other foreigners, and Polish citizens registered for social insurance, Q2 2022 and Q2 2024 (civilian, non-agricultural) 16 Chart 12. Ukrainian refugee wages relative to Polish citizens in the same employee-cells 17 Chart 13. Polish citizens and Ukrainian refugees’ employment rates by age group 18 Chart 14. Ukrainian refugee median net wage estimates in Q2 2024 19 Chart 15. Ukrainian refugees wages median net wage by age group 20 Chart 16. Median net wages of Ukrainian refugees median net wage by sector  21 Chart 17. Gross domestic product growth paths with and without Ukrainian refugees 23 Chart 18. Over-qualification rates by citizenship 27 Chart 19. Tertiary education and corresponding occupational groups shares 28 Chart 20. Ukrainian refugees median net wages by educational attainment 28 Chart 21. Share of regulated professions by citizenship and legal status, Q2 2024 29 Chart 22. Econometric model of determinants of Ukrainian refugees’ net wages 32 Chart 23. Average number of months since arrival of a Ukrainian refugee by Polish language fluency 33 Chart 24. What Ukrainian refugee groups have weakest Polish language fluency? 33 Chart 25. Ukrainian refugees’ employment rate in the 18-64 age group

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Input: wages 32 Chart 23. Average number of months since arrival of a Ukrainian refugee by Polish language fluency 33 Chart 24. What Ukrainian refugee groups have weakest Polish language fluency? 33 Chart 25. Ukrainian refugees’ employment rate in the 18-64 age group by previous status in Ukraine 34 Chart 26. Polish citizens employment rate  38 Chart 27. Polish citizens unemployment rate 38 Chart 28. Effect of a 1 pp. change in employment share of Ukrainian refugees on 39 Chart 29. Effect of a 1 pp. change in employment share of Ukrainian refugees on gross wage change 41 Chart 30. Polish citizens occupational distribution change by salary bracket, Q2 2022 and Q2 2024 41 Chart 31. Labour market activity rates  42 Chart 32. Average weekly hours in main job 42

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Input:
Death Rates, Adolescent Mothers, and

Children and Adolescents out of school

using primary data from the MSNA and

secondary data sources.

Calculations were refined using qualita
tive information obtained from experts

during needs assessments validation

workshops conducted in Miranda, Zulia,

Falcón, Bolívar, Delta Amacuro, Sucre,

Amazonas, Apure, Táchira, Lara, and

the Capital District. The overall PIN for

the Protection Cluster is 4,425,466.00,

representing a 5% increase compared

to the calculation for the Humanitarian

Response Plan (HRP) 2022-2023.

Further, throughout October, the national

Protection Cluster participated in the

facilitation of extended OCHA Local

Coordination Fora meetings in the states

of Miranda, Sucre, Bolivar, Delta Ama
curo, Apure, Amazonas, Táchira, Zulia,

Falcón, and Lara. The primary objective

of these workshops was to validate data

collected from the MNSA on the human
itarian situation of the respective state

and, to gather complementary informa

tion to contribute to the narrative of the

HNO. Finally, it helped to validate the

prioritization of municipalities in collabo
ration with Cluster partners and OCHA.

**II.** **Coordination** **with** **other**

**platforms, subnational Clusters,**

**ICCG, and Partners**

**Coordination with the Response for**

**Venezuela (R4V) continued through-**

**out September and October through**

**bilateral meetings and common work-**

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Input:
_UNHCR
 Discussion
 Paper
 –15
 June
 2013_

Also
 in
 2012
 UNHCR
 received
 authorization
 to
 open
 offices
 in
 Hpa-‐an
 in
 Kayin
 State
 and
Loikaw
 in
 Kayah
 State,
 although
 this
 is
 still
 to
 be
 formalised.
 Access
 remains
 restricted
in
 certain
 areas
 and
 is
 dependent
 on
 Government
 authorization
 and
 restrictive
 advance
clearance
 procedures,
 especially
 for
 international
 staff.
 However,
 there
 have
 been
incremental
 improvements
 in
 access
 in
 areas
 close
 to
 the
 Thai
 border,
 particularly
 as
 the
cease-‐fire
 process
 has
 become
 embedded.
 Nonetheless,
 humanitarian
 access,
 and
 the
degree
 to
 which
 UNHCR
 is
 free
 to
 assess
 needs
 and
 to
 effectively
 target
 its
 support
 to
 the
most
 vulnerable
 displaced
 and
 host
 communities
 varies
 considerably
 from
 state
 to
 state.

**5.** **LEGAL,
 INSTITUTIONAL
 AND
 POLICY
 FRAMEWORKS,
 AND
 KEY**

**PRINCIPLES**

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Input:
**time.** In the SEIS UNHCR survey, on
average, Ukrainian refugees who said they were fluent in Polish had stayed in Poland for 29 months, while those with an intermediate level – for only 22 months.
The results are interesting, especially the fact that the average time required to 32 33 progress from advanced to fluent language levels was longer than from intermediate to advanced, or beginner to intermediate (although not from zero to beginner). It is likely that the highest level of fluency, which may be required in some of the most attractive occupations, is also the hardest to achieve, and such language courses are not as readily available.

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Input:
_UNHCR
 Discussion
 Paper
 –15
 June
 2013_

livelihoods,
 household
 and
 family
 security
 issues,
 as
 well
 as
 about
 past,
 present
 and
possibly
 future
 skill-‐sets
 that
 will
 help
 the
 refugees
 to
 return
 to
 a
 normal
 life
 outside
 the
camp.
 This
 information
 will
 also
 help
 in
 identifying
 both
 the
 major
 return
 areas
 and
 all
other
 locations
 along
 with
 indications
 of
 the
 possible
 number
 of
 refugees
 intending
 to
return
 to
 those
 areas,
 and
 required
 programmatic
 interventions
 to
 help
 in
 preparing
 the
conditions
 that
 would
 support
 a
 sustainable
 voluntary
 return
 and
 reintegration.

**3.2.
 Internally
 Displaced
 Persons**

In
 its
 October
 2012
 report,
 TBC
 estimated
 that
 a
 total
 of
 about
 400,000
 individuals
 are
still
 internally
 displaced
 in
 the
 rural
 areas
 of
 36
 townships
 in
 South-‐East
 Myanmar
 in
Kayin,
 Kayah,
 South
 and
 East
 Shan
 and
 Mon
 States,
 and
 Bago
 and
 Tanintharyi
 Regions.
Of
 these,
 the
 number
 located
 in
 Kayin,
 Kayah,
 Tanintharyi
 and
 Mon
 combined
 is
estimated
 at
 230,400
 individuals
 (89,150
 or
 38.7%
 in
 Kayin;
 71,650
 or
 31.1%
 in
Tanintharyi;
 35,000
 or
 15.1%
 in
 Mon
 and
 34,600
 or
 15%
 in
 Kayah) [
 5] .

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Input:
increase in cash earning opportunities is estimated at 7.5 to 7.8 percentage points compared

with 5.4 in the baseline estimation.

**6.6 Employment and wages using the GLSS**

The DHS data do not provide detailed information regarding how much an individual earns for

work, or her wage rate, but the GLSS does collect such data. First, we try to replicate the results

estimated with the DHS data. Panel A of table 11 indicates that agriculture becomes less

important in mining communities for women (statistically insignificant), who mainly shift into

services and sales (statistically insignificant, except for strategy 2). Men are more likely to work

as miners (statistically significant across all strategies).

29

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Input:
THE ROLE OF HOUSING SUPPORT AND EMPLOYMENT FACILITATION IN ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY OF REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE

**SHARE OF YOUNG UKRAINIANS (AGED 15 TO 24) WHO ARE NOT ENGAGED IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION, OR TRAINING**

**(NEET) BY COUNTRY, %** **[1,2,3]**

Host country Refugees, excluding online education Refugees Bulgaria Czechia Hungary Moldova Poland Romania Slovakia Region

1. Data reported by the national statistics service was used as a
reference for Moldova 2. With the exception of Poland and the Czech Republic, the reliability of data by country is hindered by a relatively low number of observations

[3. Host country data is based on indicators reported by the OECD for](https://data.oecd.org/youthinac/youth-not-in-employment-education-or-training-neet.htm)
[2022](https://data.oecd.org/youthinac/youth-not-in-employment-education-or-training-neet.htm)

**UKRAINE REFUGEE YOUTH ACTIVITY BY AGE**

**The gender divide: female – led households are**

**more economically vulnerable than their male –**

**led counterparts**
The share of households that are composed of female only adults with or without children constitute 65% of the total sample across the region. Compared to households with male only adults, the vast majority of which are without children, they are 51% more likely to find themselves below the poverty line.

**DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLDS BY GENDER OF**

**ADULTS, %**

NEET 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

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Input:
# **BRIEF** **BRAZIL**

### Operational Context & Analysis

Brazil has in place a progressive and inclusive protection and solutions framework for refugees
and other forcibly displaced individuals, ensuring equal access to rights and services alongside its
national citizens. With an open-border policy, Brazil guarantees the admission, registration, and
documentation of those in need of international protection. Brazil hosts the largest number of
Venezuelans recognized as refugees in Latin America and the Caribbean.

As of July 2024, Brazil has recognized 144.463 refugees and provided alternative protection
pathways to 572.877 persons in need of international protection, the majority of whom are
Venezuelan (474.217) and Haitian (89.455) nationals. Additionally, there are 75,998 pending
asylum applications, primarily from individuals originating from Cuba (26.225), Venezuela (15.065)
and Angola (8.696).

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Input:
host country weighted average [17] . Excluding such online schooling increases this indicator to 18%. The highest NEET rate by country was reported in Moldova at 26%, which is similar to the local population, and the lowest in Poland at just 11% (3 percentage points below the national metric).
Regionally, the Ukraine refugee NEET rate tends to increase with age, as it becomes more affected by unemployment, which is high for the 15 – 24 cohort (at 17%).

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Input:
19 The complete rationale for the productivity shock is outlined in the Appendix on modelling strategy, while further detailed results of econometric models are available in the Online Technical Appendix.

20 As outlined in the Appendix on modelling strategy, the total number of refugees was set at 2.6% of the total population, while their share in total employment as growing from 1.5% in 2022 to 2.4% in 2024.

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Input:
HIGH EMPLOYMENT RATES, BUT LOW WAGES: A POVERTY ASSESSMENT OF UKRAINIAN REFUGEES IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES Just like last year, employment rates demonstrated disparity by age group, gender, education level, the presence of a disability, and being in need of MHPSS. Disability was found to be associated with the largest drop in employment, with this factor halving the probability of working in 2024 when compared to the sample overall. Having MHPSS needs and being female were also associated with a lower employment likelihood, although to significantly smaller degrees.

Compared to the host population, the refugee sample demonstrated higher employment rates at lower age brackets (15-19 and 20-24), which, considering the findings on poverty, can be interpreted as a coping strategy associated with low income. Higher age brackets (55-59 and 60-64) saw the highest gap in the employment rate compared to hosts, supporting the hypothesis that older age individuals have more difficulty integrating into the local labor market.

**REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT RATE BY AGE AND POPULATION**

Refugees (2023) Refugees (2024) Hosts (2023) 82% 79% 80% 52% 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 Source: Survey data, ILO

**REGIONAL REFUGEE EMPLOYMENT RATE BY POPULATION**

**GROUP (2024)**

**EMPLOYMENT RATE BY EDUCATION LEVEL**

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Input:
the bottom 40 percent in four groups: far away, before mine or during mine, and close to mine,

before mine or during mine. The summary statistics for selected main outcomes are presented

in table 10. As the table shows, the bottom 40 percent in mining communities are more likely

engaging in agriculture than the bottom 40 percent elsewhere. This could illustrate that

agricultural workers are overrepresented among the less well-off in mining communities.

However, women in this group still more often work in services than women did before in the

same communities.

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Input:
The choice of district – rather than cluster – fixed effect is informed by the understanding that

meaningful time-invariant factors - such as mining laws, level of development, local political

institutions, norms regarding environment, women’s participation in the labor market, etc. - that

influence exploitation of the mine happens at the district level. Including district fixed effects,

we control for various institutional and cultural factors at the district level that are stable over

time. Including district fixed effects also ensures that we are not only capturing effects from

transfers or the fiscal system as we compare individuals within the same districts. With this

method we capture the geographic spillover effects in the vicinity of the mine. Moreover, cluster

fixed effects are not possible because of clusters are not repeatedly sampled over time.

However, since the estimation is at individual level, all standard errors are clustered at the DHS

cluster level.

The sample is restricted to individuals living within 100 km of a deposit location ( _mine_ ), so

many parts of Northern Ghana where there are few gold mines are not included in the analysis.

The sample restriction is created by using the time-stable continuous distance measure that we

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Input:
Due
 to
 the
 size
 and
 remoteness
 of
 the
 operational
 area,
 compounded
 by
 access
limitation
 and
 sensitivities,
 reliable
 and
 disaggregated
 information
 on
 the
 profile
 and
needs
 of
 displaced
 populations
 remains
 scarce.
 UNHCR
 has
 recently
 strengthened
 its
information
 management
 capacities
 with
 a
 view
 to
 working
 towards
 obtaining
 a
 more
systematic
 understanding
 of
 the
 locations
 and
 characteristics
 of
 populations
 of
 concern,
and
 the
 protection
 risks
 affecting
 them.
 Additionally,
 the
 Joint
 IDP
 Profiling
 Service
(JIPS),
 has
 recently
 completed
 a
 scoping
 mission
 aiming
 at
 assessing
 whether
 it
 is
feasible
 and
 desirable
 to
 conduct
 an
 IDP
 profiling
 that
 would
 inform
 the
 design
 of
 an
effective
 strategy
 for
 support
 to
 IDPs
 durable
 solutions,
 as
 well
 as
 targeting,
 improved
advocacy
 and
 fundraising.

**4.** **UNHCR’S
 CURRENT
 OPERATIONS
 IN
 THE
 SOUTH-‐EAST**

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Input:
**Persons of concern in Southern Africa, Data as of 30 September 2022**

Notes: *'Other' in the location refers to any known location other than camp or settlement sites, covering both urban and rural areas; **self-settled refers to the individuals without available information such as their names and locations, and their locations are categorised to be 'unknown'; those by location in Congo, Democratic Republic of
the Congo and Zimbabwe could be different from the numbers operation report due to inconsistency in proGres v4.

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Input:
contrast, show the univariate regression coefficients using OLS, highlighting the difference

between the population living close (e.g. Column 2) and far away (e.g. Column 1) before

mining.

In the pre-period, women in communities that are close to mines are less urban, poorer, have

more children and are less likely migrants. In contrast, women are of similar age, have similar

education and occupation (but slightly more likely earning cash). Note that these are raw mean

values not controlling for any regional and individual differences. Overall, these differences are

in line with previous research finding that large-scale mines tend to open in more rural and less

developed communities (Benshaul-Tolonen, 2018; Kotsadam and Tolonen, 2016).

In active mining communities, women are still less likely to live in urban areas (although the

gap between mining and non-mining areas may be smaller) than in non-mining communities,

but more likely to have some education. The difference-in-difference estimation strategy

assumes similar trends over time across the treatment (close to mines) and control group (far

away from mines), in absence of the gold mining expansion. While this assumption cannot be

tested using our dataset, previous analyses have found evidence for parallel pre-trends in infant

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Input:
CROSS BORDER MOVEMENTS KEY FIGURES

200 61 118 21

REGIONAL BUREAU FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA

**PERSONS OF CONCERN INVOLVED IN CROSS BORDER MOVEMENTS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA**

As of 30 September 2022

MAP OF THE CROSS BORDER MOVEMENTS WHERE THE FLOW INVOLVED 3 POCs AND MORE *

**Inward movements**

**into the region**

**Total cross**

**border**

**movements**

**Intra region**

**movemens**

**Outward**

**movements from the**

**region**

Inward

31%

Outward
movements

34%

Before 2019 2019 2020 2021 2022

exclusion.

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Input:
table 7). Low weight-for-age is an indicator for acute malnutrition, whereas height-for-age is

an indicator for chronic malnutrition. This could indicate that mining districts are less food

secure. [12] Table 7 shows that there are no effects on illness in the last two weeks.

**6. Distributional effects, mechanisms and robustness**

**6.1 Decomposing results by migration status**

We argue that one source of heterogeneity is to consider when exploring socio-economic

impacts and distributional effects of large-scale mining is migration status. First because mining

may cause inward migration of individuals that are different from the previous local population.

While it has its limitations, disaggregating the effects between nonmigrants and migrants may

shed some light on the effect on the initial population. Second, to understand the distributional

effects of mining we argue that migration status may be an important factor.

In the analysis, we distinguish between nonmigrants (where the woman respondent report being

born in the locality) and migrants (born elsewhere). We note several caveats with this analysis,

the first being that we cannot follow migrant households before the migration decision.

Therefore, we cannot make any causal claims on changes in this group over time. We compare

---
[12] In table 5 we saw very small insignificant changes in nutritional status.

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Input:
3 As of December 2023, according to UNHCR, based on governmental sources [Situation Ukraine Refugee Situation (unhcr.org)](https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine) 4 According to the active PESEL UKR database.
5 According to the active PESEL UKR database in October 2023.
6 Deloitte calculations based on Multi-Sector Needs Assessment Poland 2023 survey data provided by UNHCR.

06

Multi-Sector Needs Assessment Poland 2023 survey data

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Input:
1. A household classified as above or below the poverty line if household members are individually located above or below the poverty line

2. Income shares represent the average for each group 11 Defined in the survey as working for an employer full- or part-time on a regular basis, opposed to temporary work or selfemployment 12 Here defined as the share of individuals aged 15+ who are either employed or unemployed. Unemployed is understood as having searched for work over the past 30 days and willing to start if an opportunity presents itself over the next 2 weeks 13 Ratio of people younger than 15 and older than 64 to the 15-64 cohort 14 The share of individuals aged 15+ that are either employed or unemployed (have looked for work over the past 30 days and are willing to start if an opportunity presents itself over the next 2 weeks)

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Input:
However,
 two
 serious
 internal
 conflicts
 still
 remain.
 Following
 two
 waves
 of
 inter-‐
communal
 violence
 in
 the
 western
 state
 of
 Rakhine
 in
 2012,
 over
 150
 persons
 were
killed
 and
 over
 115,000
 people
 were
 displaced.
 In
 the
 northern
 states
 of
 Kachin
 and
Shan,
 the
 conflict
 with
 the
 Kachin
 Independence
 Army
 continues;
 fighting
 flared
 up
 in
June
 2011
 breaking
 a
 cease-‐fire
 that
 held
 for
 17
 years.
 Despite
 repeated
 attempts
 to
negotiate
 a
 new
 cease-‐fire
 agreement,
 no
 peace
 solution
 has
 been
 reached
 between
 the
parties
 and
 the
 fighting
 has
 so
 far
 resulted
 in
 the
 displacement
 of
 an
 estimated
 of
 about
85,000
 persons
 scattered
 in
 more
 than
 194
 locations.

Although
 the
 cease-‐fire
 agreements
 have
 not
 led
 yet
 to
 durable
 peace
 accords,
 the
situation
 in
 the
 South-‐East,
 where
 the
 number
 of
 Internally
 Displaced
 People
 (IDPs)
 in
UNHCR’s
 area
 of
 operation [1] is
 estimated
 to
 be
 about
 230,400
 people,
 has
 started
 seeing
changing
 dynamics.
 From
 the
 moment
 when
 the
 new
 civilian
 Government
 started
 to

---
[1] UNHCR’s
 area
 of
 operation
 in
 the
 South-‐East
 currently
 consists
 of
 Kayin,
 Kayah,
 and
 Mon
 States,
 and

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Input:
During the covered period, a National Development Plan spanning 2022-2026 has been prepared, to
supplant the National Development Plan document (2019-2021) which has lapsed, but it has not been
adopted. The updated plan maintains provisions for establishing consensual mechanisms for the peaceful
resolution of conflicts. This involves reinforcing the legal framework to foster trust between communities and
security forces, facilitating socio-security dialogue, promoting peaceful coexistence and fostering respect
for differences.

2 R E F U G E E P O L I C Y R E V I E W F R A M E W O R K > **R E P U B L I C O F C H A D**

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Input:
Deloitte D.Climate, [32 33] is a general equilibrium model that uses consumer and producer optimisation to calculate changes in the economy in response to shocks. This enables the impact of shocks to be assessed by considering supply and demand channels as well as connections between different sectors of the economy. It provides information on the total impact of shocks on various aspects of the economy, including the labour market, government revenue, as well as key economic aggregates. It is the most appropriate tool for accounting for the multi-layered impact of Ukrainian refugees. A counterfactual analysis was performed using the latest data on the Polish economy to account for the effects of other shocks in the economy. The model enabled a counterfactual analysis to be conducted by isolating the refugee influx from all other economic shocks, e.g. the other macroeconomic consequences of the war in Ukraine. The results were calculated for 2022, 2023 and 2024 with an additional long-term analysis up to 2030 to assess the economy’s long-term adaptation (assuming no new shocks, including no countershocks [34] ).

32 Economics of climate change | Deloitte Australia

**Chart 32. Average weekly hours in main job**

Women in 15-64 age group 68.4% 2023-Q2

---
[34] E.g. refugees keep having lower productivity rather than adapt to level of natives.

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Input:
During the 2022-2023 school year, a total of 105,295 refugee children were enrolled in schools. This number
includes 7,520 in pre-primary, 75,205 in primary, 24,999 in secondary, and 571 in higher education and
vocational training. The gross enrolment rates for refugees were as follows: 71 per cent in primary, 28 per
cent in secondary, and less than 1 per cent in tertiary education. Refugee enrolment rates at the primary and
tertiary levels remain below those of national students (71 per cent and 1 per cent compared to 91 percent
and 3 per cent respectively), while they are higher than those of national students at the secondary level (28
percent compared to 22 per cent).

Chad continues to have a government-led system to support the integration of refugee children coming
from a different education system (Nigerian and Sudanese refugees) but funded by UNHCR. Local education
authorities organize placement tests and catch-up classes before integrating refugee children into the most
appropriate Chadian school year according to their level, age and other criteria. With new arrivals from
Sudan since April 2023, Sudanese refugee children have been integrated into the existing programme with
ongoing recruitment of new teachers in the main refugee hosting areas.

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Input:
**Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland**

**Economists have advanced an array of factors that could be causing these macro-level effects. While macro-level**

**regressions show a positive impact of immigration on productivity, they cannot show the exact channels through which**

**these effects come about. It is thus uncertain which are dominant. Among them are:**

# Conclusions

**Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland**

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Input:
[8] F. N. P. Nimoh, T. P. Beltramo, J. R. Fix, F. K. Appler, U. J. Pape, and L. A. Rios Rivera, ‘Understanding the Socioeconomic Conditions of
the Stateless Shona Community in Kenya: Results from the 2019 Socioeconomic Survey’, Dec. 2020. Accessed: Apr. 02, 2024. [Online].
Available: https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documentsreports/documentdetail/356511608745182603/Understanding-the-Socioeconomic-Conditions-of-the-Stateless-Shona-Community-inKenya-Results-from-the-2019-Socioeconomic-Survey

[9] U. J. Pape _et al._, ‘How COVID-19 Continues to Affect Lives of Refugees in Kenya : Rapid Response Phone Survey - Rounds 1 to 5’, World
Bank Group, Washington, D.C., Policy Note 166098, Oct. 2021. Accessed: Oct. 10, 2024. [Online]. Available:
https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/202201637042522937/pdf/How-COVID-19-Continues-to-Affect-Lives-of-Refugeesin-Kenya-Rapid-Response-Phone-Survey-Rounds-1-to-5.pdf

[10] Kenya National Bureau of Statistics and ICF, ‘Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2022. Key Indicators Report’, KNBS and ICF,

Nairobi, Kenya, and Rockville, Maryland, USA, 2023. Accessed: Oct. 10, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.knbs.or.ke/wpcontent/uploads/2023/08/Kenya-Demographic-and-Health-Survey-2022-Key-Indicators-Report.pdf

Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2022

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Input:
NAVIGATING HEALTH AND WELL-BEING CHALLENGES FOR REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE

### **Outcomes of** **Mental Health and** **Psychosocial** **Support**

Among those who accessed MHPSS, 33% answered “yes” when asked whether they experienced improvement, while 55% reported a “slight” improvement, resulting in a combined positive response rate of 88%.

**% OF INDIVIDUALS WHO RECEIVED MENTAL HEALTH**

**AND PSYCHOSOCIAL SUPPORT SERVICES AND REPORT**

**IMPROVEMENT IN WELL-BEING BY COUNTRY**

Yes Slight No/No, worsening across gender, with older adults aged 60+ reporting the highest improvement rates (93% for women and 94% for men).

**% OF INDIVIDUALS WHO RECEIVED MENTAL HEALTH**

**AND PSYCHOSOCIAL SUPPORT SERVICES AND REPORT**

**IMPROVEMENT IN WELL-BEING BY AGE AND GENDER**

Female Male Regional Bulgaria Czechia Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Moldova Poland Romania Slovakia (N=1,662) 33% 35% 46% 41% 26% 41% 38% 29% 30% 28% 48% 55% 54% 48% 51% 67% 44% 44% 62% 57% 56% 49%

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Input:
**higher productivity.** In a simplistic
supply-demand framework, the influx of Ukrainian refugees should have caused some Polish workers to become unemployed or leave the labour force, or real wages to fall. This has not happened.
First, among Polish citizens employment rates have grown, and unemployment rates have fallen. Second, poviats in which employment share of Ukrainian refugees has grown by 1 pp., saw 0.5 pp. higher employment rates among Polish citizens, and 0.3 pp. lower unemployment rates.

Third, there is no evidence of lowered wages, in fact the limited available data suggests that Ukrainian refugees may have caused higher wage growth in poviats which they have moved to. These are common findings well documented in academic literature, that as immigrants enter the labour market, native workers specialize in complementary, higher value tasks, which we see empirically in Polish workers moving to more attractive occupational groups. This can be seen in the data, as Polish citizens are moving to better paid occupations. It constitutes a positive shock to productivity which is what counterbalances labour market pressures. [17] Source: Deloitte D.Climate estimates. For details see the Online Technical Appendix.

**The main impact of Ukrainian refugees**

**is expanding the economy and putting**

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Input:
NAVIGATING HEALTH AND WELL-BEING CHALLENGES FOR REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE negative perceptions of Ukrainian refugees in some host communities including perceived overuse of health services and preferential treatment [6] . As the refugees stay longer, sustainable solutions to meeting health needs of refugees and host communities, including sustainable financing, refugee data integration, integration of the refugee health workforce, and enhanced service delivery including mental health services, are critical.

Through regional multi-agency collaboration, multisector needs assessments have been conducted in refugee-receiving countries since 2022 to collect information on the needs of refugees, including those related to health, nutrition and mental health and psychosocial support. These assessments support partners’ understanding of the level of access to essential services among refugees and outcomes enable governments and partners to identify priorities for the response. In 2024, a social-economic lens was added in assessing the needs of refugees in the SocioEconomic Insights Study (SEIS) conducted in ten countries (Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Republic of Moldova, Romania, and Slovakia).

# Methodology

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Input:
_Source: Authors’ calculation of 2024 survey data._

**Livelihood opportunities for the Shona community have improved significantly since gaining citizenship,**

**particularly in terms of financial access and job prospects – as well as protection outcomes, such as reduction in**

**harassment by law enforcement.** According to the survey data, over half of the Shona community reported that

citizenship has enhanced their access to banking and mobile wallet services, making it easier for them to save,

invest, and manage their finances. Increased job opportunities were cited by 47 percent of respondents, reflecting

how the ability to present formal identification has opened new avenues for employment and economic

participation. Importantly, 46 percent of the Shona noted a reduction in harassment by law enforcement, which

had previously hindered their movement and limited their economic activities. This improvement has enabled more

individuals to seek employment and conduct business without fear of arbitrary detentions or fines.

_Figure 6: Impacts on receiving citizenship on livelihood opportunities_

_Source: Authors’ calculation of 2024 survey data._

**[www.unhcr.org](http://www.unhcr.org/)** 8

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Input:
Additionally, 22 private companies pledged to hire 1,200 refugees and to support 15,000 refugees
with trainings and job placement by 2027. Currently, Brazil formally employs around 200,000
refugees and people in need of international protection. Of these, more than 12 thousand are
employed by 55 companies and organizations that are part of the Companies with Refugees
Forum, an initiative started in 2021 by UNHCR and the UN Global Compact – Brazil Chapter. The

UNHCR / October, 2024 9

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Input:
HIGH EMPLOYMENT RATES, BUT LOW WAGES: A POVERTY ASSESSMENT OF UKRAINIAN REFUGEES IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES

# **Background**

Over three years have elapsed since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, an event which has led to the largest displacement crisis in Europe since World War II. As of the end of 2024, 6.3 million refugees from
[Ukraine were recorded across Europe, close to 2 million of whom are located in ten Regional Refugee](https://www.unhcr.org/europe/publications/regional-refugee-response-plan-2025-2026)
[Response Plan](https://www.unhcr.org/europe/publications/regional-refugee-response-plan-2025-2026) countries: Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Republic of Moldova, Romania, and Slovakia. This report aims to assess the livelihood situation of this population based on the 2024 round of data collected by the Socio-Economic Insights Survey (SEIS), which received responses from 8,723 households containing 19,803 individuals. Figures for 2023 are derived from a similar exercise [7] conducted in 2023.

# **Key findings**

**Refugee poverty rates remain high, albeit improved from 2023**

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Input:
pollution from mining and agricultural productivity. The results point toward decreasing

agricultural productivity because of environmental pollution and soil degradation, which could

have negative welfare effects on households that do not engage in mining activities or in

indirectly stimulated sectors. Lower productivity in agriculture could potentially push

households to engage in mining-related sectors, in addition to pull factors such as higher wage

earnings in the stimulated sectors.

We explore the effects of mining activity on employment, earnings, expenditure, and children’s

health outcomes in local communities and in districts with gold mining. We combine the DHS

and GLSS with production data for 17 large-scale gold mines in Ghana. We find that a new

large-scale gold mine changes economic outcomes, such as access to employment and cash

earnings. In addition, it raises local wages and expenditure on housing and energy.

An important welfare indicator in developing countries is infant mortality, and we note a large

and significant decrease in mortality rates among young children, at both the local and district

levels. [1] We hypothesize that increased access to prenatal care is one of the mechanisms behind

the increased survival rate.

---
[1] In the 2010 Ghana population census average district size is 112,000

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Input:
activities, either by increasing or decreasing activity in the close geographic area, we will end

up estimating the impact of these sectors jointly. In a later stage, should the opportunity arise,

we encourage researchers to try to disentangle the effects of small-scale and large-scale mining.

**3 Data**

To conduct this analysis, we combine different data sources using spatial analysis. The main

mining data is a dataset from InterraRMG covering all large-scale mines in Ghana, explained

in more detail in section 3.1. This dataset is linked to survey data from the DHS and GLSS,

using spatial information. Geographical coordinates of enumeration areas in GLSS are from

Ghana Statistical Services (GSS). [2] Point coordinates (global positioning system [GPS]) for the

surveyed DHS clusters [3] allow us to match all individuals to one or several mineral mines. We

do this in two ways.

First, we calculate distance spans from an exact mine location given by its GPS coordinates,

and match surveyed individuals to mines. These are concentric circles with radiuses of 10, 20,

and 30 kilometers (km), and so on, up to 100 km and beyond. In the baseline analysis where

---
[2] The data was shared by Aragón and Rud (2013)
[3] Both the DHS and GLSS enumeration area coordinates have a 1-5 km offset. The DHS clusters have up to

survey data from the DHS and GLSS
dataset from InterraRMG

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Input:
The new asylum legislation provides a robust legal framework for guaranteeing access to justice for
refugees and asylum-seekers. This includes outlining specific provisions regarding legal assistance and
judicial assistance to permit access to justice, legal representation and enforcement of ruling. It is important
[to consider this framework in conjunction with Law 021-PR-2019 on legal aid and judicial assistance, which](https://www.refworld.org/docid/609f00834.html)
was enacted in 2019, though not fully operational in absence of an implementing decree. Article 27 of the
[2020 Asylum Law](https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2091861/645b938a4.pdf) recognizes the refugee right to access Chadian Courts. The same provision also provides
for treatment regarding access to judicial assistance on par with nationals and exempts refugees from
providing a financial deposit to Courts (caution judicatum solvi) applicable to ordinary foreigners.

[Article 65 of the 2023 Decree](https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2091861/645b938a4.pdf) further outlines that refugees and asylum-seekers enjoy access to Court on par
with nationals. Additionally, the 2023 Decree outlines the rights of asylum-seekers and refugees to access judicial
assistance and legal assistance in the conditions outlined by the law. A specific legal provision of the 2023
Decree also details the different modalities composing legal aid accessible to refugees and asylum-seekers

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Input:
_UNHCR
 Discussion
 Paper
 –15
 June
 2013_

5. Returning
 refugees
 and
 IDPs
 and
 receiving/hosting
 communities
 have

opportunities
 to
 (re-‐)establish
 meaningful
 and
 productive
 lives,
 through
 access
to
 livelihoods
 opportunities.
6. IDPs
 and
 returned
 refugee,
 together
 with
 the
 communities
 receiving
 or
 hosting

them
 enjoy
 key
 socio-‐economic
 rights,
 including
 access
 to
 shelter,
 education
 and
health
 and
 other
 services
 and
 infrastructure.

**9.** **KEY
 ASSUMPTIONS
 AND
 RISKS**

With
 the
 understanding
 that
 a
 more
 in-‐depth
 analysis
 is
 needed,
 the
 following
 is
 a
 list
 of
key
 assumptions
 and
 risks
 that
 need
 to
 be
 taken
 into
 consideration
 prior
 to
 planning
durable
 solutions
 programming
 in
 the
 South-‐East:

- The
 peace
 process
 remains
 one
 of
 the
 Government’s
 main
 priorities
 including
adequately
 addressing
 the
 current
 situations
 in
 Kachin
 and
 Rakhine.
 Much
 will
also
 depend
 on
 the
 agreements
 that
 are
 reached
 with
 the
 different
 armed
 groups
and
 the
 level
 of
 political,
 economic
 and
 cultural
 autonomy
 they
 could
 retain.
 Any
on-‐going
 armed
 clashes
 and/or
 protection
 incidents
 could
 derail
 progress
 made
so
 far.

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Input:
The
 proposed
 five
 phases
 reflect
 different
 stages
 in
 IDP
 operations,
 and
 in
 the
 refugee
repatriation
 and
 reintegration
 process,
 with
 each
 corresponding
 to
 incrementally
increasing
 resource
 requirements
 for
 UNHCR
 and
 its
 operational
 partners.

- Phase
 1: Strengthening
 of
 IDP
 operations
 and
 preparation
 for
 refugee
 return
while
 providing
 integrated
 assistance
 to
 spontaneous
 returnees;

- Phase
 2: Expansion
 of
 integrated
 support
 to
 spontaneous
 returnees
 and
 their
communities
 while
 enhancing
 preparedness;

- Phase
 3: Refugee
 repatriation
 and
 initial
 reintegration
 operations;

- Phase
 4: Consolidation
 of
 reintegration
 operations;
 and

- Phase
 5: Reintegration
 operations
 are
 scaled
 down
 and
 phased
 out.

**8.** **OBJECTIVES**

General
 operational
 objectives
 are:

1. Refugees
 are
 empowered
 to
 make
 an
 informed
 choice
 on
 whether
 to
 return,
 and

if
 so,
 when
 and
 to
 where,
 including
 through
 the
 provision
 of
 accurate
 and
 up
 to
date
 information
 on
 the
 situation
 in
 areas
 of
 potential
 return.
2. Refugees
 and
 IDPs
 have
 the
 opportunity
 to
 determine
 which
 solution(s)
 are

most
 appropriate
 for
 them,
 and
 to
 participate
 fully
 in
 the
 assessment,
 design
 and
delivery
 of
 durable
 solutions
 programmes,
 using
 an
 age,
 gender
 and
 diversity
mainstreaming
 approach.
3. Legal
 frameworks
 are
 in
 place
 that
 guarantee
 the
 rights
 of
 IDPs
 and
 returning

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Input:
UNHCR Indonesia is working to expand access to complementary pathways for refugees in the country
and provides information and guidance to refugees who may be eligible for these programs. Solutions
through complementary pathways have increased in recent years, from no individual departures on
pathways in 2020 to over 300 departures in 2023. UNHCR recognizes and amplifies the link between
access to education, skills building, and empowerment activities in Indonesia with improved access to
education and labour mobility pathways in third countries. In this way, continued success with these
pathways also serves to reinforce and enhance advocacy with Indonesian authorities on the
importance of access to opportunities while in Indonesia. Since mid-2021, UNHCR has collaborated
with Talent Beyond Boundaries (TBB) on a project that matches refugee candidates in Indonesia with
employers in Australia and Canada to offer employment and a pathway to residency through labour
mobility. In 2023, 328 individuals departed on a sponsorship pathway, eight refugees departed to a
third country on family reunification, and seven refugees departed to Canada and Australia on labour
mobility programs.

### **Solutions - Voluntary Repatriation**

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Input:
Considering
 that
 decades
 of
 conflict,
 displacement
 and
 poverty
 have
 weakened
traditional
 community
 support
 and
 leadership
 structures
 will
 be
 important
 that
 the
capacities
 of
 communities,
 as
 well
 as
 local
 partners
 such
 as
 local
 NGOs,
 CBOs
 and
border-‐based
 groups
 working
 out
 of
 Thailand,
 are
 effectively
 harnessed
 in
 support
 of
durable
 solutions.

 In
 particular
 border-‐based
 organisations
 represent
 critical
 assets
that
 are
 complementary
 to
 the
 traditional
 agencies.
 The
 networks
 and
 working
relationships
 that
 Thai-‐based
 organisations,
 which
 have
 been
 working
 with
 the
 refugee
and
 IDP
 communities
 for
 about
 30
 years,
 have
 developed
 with
 displaced
 communities
will
 be
 invaluable
 in
 building
 trust
 and
 providing
 services.

The
 scope
 of
 activities
 required
 is
 likely
 to
 be
 significant
 and
 will
 require
 prioritized
attention
 and
 significant
 donor
 support.
 Early
 support
 to
 kick-‐start
 the
 reintegration
process
 that
 will
 address
 immediate
 needs
 (initial
 phases)
 should
 transition
 to
 medium
and
 longer
 term
 development
 projects
 (consolidation
 phase)
 to
 ensure
 the
 achievement
of
 sustainable
 reintegration
 and
 eventually
 lead
 to
 a
 measurable
 UNHCR
 disengagement.

12

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Input:
# **HIGH EMPLOYMENT** **RATES, BUT LOW** **WAGES: A POVERTY** **ASSESSMENT OF** **UKRAINIAN REFUGEES** **IN NEIGHBORING** **COUNTRIES**

## **An inter-agency exploration of** **socio-economic data** March 2025

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Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

## Appendix: Modelling strategy

##### Compared to refugees in other countries, Ukrainians in Poland show high employment rates, making their economic impact more positive and comparable to immigrants in general. Most of the migration economics literature quoted in this appendix refers to all immigrants, not just refugees.

Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

#### **“Canonical model” and recent advances**

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THE ROLE OF HOUSING SUPPORT AND EMPLOYMENT FACILITATION IN ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY OF REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE

### **Summary of** **findings and** **recommendations**

Overall, refugee households from Ukraine are facing a high degree of economic vulnerability, with half of them falling below the poverty line [1] based on reported income. Factoring in accommodation support (provided either via host governments, local homeowners, or other arrangements) as an indirect source of income, reduces the poverty rate to 32%, demonstrating the importance of such interventions.
The level of access to regular [2] employment is a key factor influencing the financial wellbeing of households, highlighting the significance of economic inclusion. Despite a predominantly vulnerable population profile (35% of families consist of a single adult woman with dependents, and the overall age dependency ratio [3] stands at 61%), labor force participation rates among refugees are comparable to those of host country nationals.
However, unemployment rates remain alarmingly high at 14%. Additionally, gender gaps are

---
[1] Defined as being composed of members whose equivalized income is below 50% of the national median
[2] Defined in the survey as working for an employer full- or part-time on a regular basis, as opposed to temporary work or selfemployment
[3] Defined as the ratio of people younger than 15 and older than 64 to the 15-64 cohort

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Third, cross-section regression analysis shows that poviats with a higher number of Ukrainian refugees saw a greater increase in wages, which was caused by larger share of refugees in local employment.
Due to limitations in the wage dataset, our calculations incorporated yearly data.
Cross-section models were estimated using a data sample for all 380 poviats in 2023.
The share of Ukrainian refugees among all employed, temporarily employed, and self-employed persons insured at ZUS in a given poviat was averaged across quarters to construct a yearly variable. The wage variable is the GUS data series on gross monthly wages and salaries [30], and taken as nominal change in 2023 from 2022.
The ordinary least squares cross-section model shows that in 2023, a 1 percentage point increase in the employment share of Ukrainian refugees was associated with an increase in wages of PLN 66. Given that in a mean poviat gross wage growth amounted to PLN 757 and the gross wage in the previous year was PLN 5,803, wages have grown by 13.1% in nominal terms (including inflation), of which 0.7 percentage points were associated with Ukrainian refugees (considering the fact that the employment share of the Ukrainian refugees in a mean poviat was 0.61%).

---
[30] Unfortunately, GUS data for these time periods and poviat level include the enterprise sector (firms that employ 10 or more persons) and public sector, which is

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Input:
**2. Support economic integration and empowerment of the Shona community through targeted financial inclusion**

**programs and skills development initiatives.**

The Government of Kenya, in collaboration with development partners, is encouraged to implement tailored

financial inclusion strategies to help the newly recognized Shona citizens access credit, savings, and insurance

products that are crucial for business growth and household resilience. Establishing entrepreneurship training

programs, mentorship networks, and providing access to capital for small and medium-sized enterprises would

empower the Shona community to leverage their skills in wood carving, basket weaving, and other economic

activities. Additionally, promoting employment opportunities in the formal sector for Shona individuals through job

placement services and partnerships with the private sector will ensure that the community’s transition to full

citizenship is accompanied by tangible improvements in income and welfare.

**3. Reaffirm and expand Kenya’s commitment to eradicating statelessness by adopting a comprehensive national**

**strategy.**

Building on the success of granting citizenship to the Makonde, Shona, and Pemba communities, a National Action

Plan to identify and resolve remaining cases of statelessness, including the estimated 9,800 individuals who remain

stateless, offers many benefits. This strategy should include amending the relevant Sections of the Kenya

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Input:
- The
 Government
 will
 abide
 by
 international
 standards
 for
 return
 namely,
 that
people
 have
 a
 right
 to
 return
 voluntarily
 to
 places
 of
 choice,
 based
 on
 their
individual
 and
 freely-‐expressed
 wish
 to
 return,
 and
 that
 return
 and
reintegration
 is
 carried
 out
 in
 conditions
 of
 physical,
 legal
 and
 material
 safety
and
 dignity.

- The
 Government
 and
 non-‐state
 armed
 groups
 engage
 in
 addressing
 the
 problem
of
 landmines
 as
 an
 early
 priority.
 Landmines
 are
 a
 particular
 threat
 in
 the
 South-‐
East
 and
 a
 serious
 impediment
 to
 any
 possible
 return.

- Land
 reform,
 including
 restoration
 of
 land
 rights
 and
 compensation,
 remains
 at
the
 centre
 of
 the
 country’s
 political
 debate
 and
 reform
 agenda.
 The
 current
 laws
allow
 expropriation
 of
 land
 not
 utilised
 for
 a
 specific
 period
 of
 time.
 In
 addition,
abandonment,
 widespread
 destruction
 and
 “land
 grabbing”
 may
 mean
 that
 some
villages
 of
 origin
 may
 not
 exist
 anymore,
 or
 may
 not
 be
 accessible.

- Humanitarian
 and
 development
 actors
 are
 granted
 full
 access
 to
 return
 areas,
particularly
 allowing
 the
 opening
 of
 offices
 and
 regular
 monitoring
 capacity.
Direct
 access
 to
 key
 areas
 of
 origin
 is
 still
 limited
 for
 many
 humanitarian
 and
development
 actors
 in
 particular
 in
 conflict-‐affected
 areas.

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Input:
5. Cross Sectors

### **5. Cross Sectors**

**5.1** **Gender**

Gender considerations can generally be enhanced in many sub-dimensions of overall policies, with the
most relevant being the national institutional framework for the management and coordination of refugees.
Additionally, the limited participation of refugee women in advisory committees often results in inadequate
consideration of the concerns and needs of women and girls. This hinders their inclusion in national plans
and programs.

The most consequential policy sub-dimensions in terms of socioeconomic development remain therefore
as follows:

**a.** **Justice and Security:** Challenges remain in preventing and responding to gender-based violence.

**b.** **Land, Housing, and Property:** Refugees in general still face difficulties in accessing and owning land.

**c.** **Education:** Limited access to education for refugee girls, particularly due to high dropout rates. In

the 2022-2023 school year, girls’ enrolment rates were 47 per cent in primary, 17 per cent in middle
school and only 6 percent in high school nationwide. The drop in middle and high school attendance is
linked to socio-cultural pressures, leading to issues like child marriages, early marriages, child labour.

**d.** **Healthcare:** Insufficient prioritization of the specific needs of women and girls, including refugee women

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Input:
The floods in 2022 had adverse effects in 18 out of the 23 provinces, including Lac, Mayo Kebbi Est, Mayo
Kebi Ouest, Logone Occidental, Logone Oriental, Tandjilé and Mandoul. These consequences resulted in
the loss of agricultural land and livestock, and heightened risks to food security. In October 2022, authorities
responded by declaring a state of emergency and offering financial assistance to affected individuals,
including refugees hosted in these rural areas, to meet their shelter and essential needs. Specific sites were
identified to temporally accommodate the displaced individuals irrespective of their status.

**1.4** **Preparedness for refugee inflows**

The National Commission for the Reception, Reintegration of Refugees and Repatriates (Commission
Nationale d’Accueil de Réinsertion des Réfugiés et des Rapatriés, CNARR) remains the national institutional
body to respond to new refugee inflows. The four-year strategy of CNARR (2019-2023), which includes
mobilization provisions in case of emergencies, continues to be applied. The CNARR continues to work
with UNHCR and other United Nations organizations to support and guide its response to refugee inflows,
particularly in cases of emergency.

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Input:
_Note:_ In panel A, active is status of mine in birth year; in panel B, active is active status of mine in survey year.
Robust standard errors clustered at the DHS cluster level in parentheses. All regressions control for year and district
fixed effects, urban dummy, age, and years of education. *** p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1. OLS = ordinary least
squares.

An active mine is associated with a decrease in cough among children under age five (panel B

of table 5), and children are also (insignificantly) more likely to have a health card. An active

mine is associated with insignificant decreases in the anthropometrics measures (World Health

Organization measures in standard deviations), such as height-for-age and weight-for-age.

However, the standard errors for these coefficients are very large relative to the estimated

coefficients, which is why the effects are imprecisely estimated.

**5.3 Spatial heterogeneity of results**

Thus far we have used a cutoff distance of 20 km. Panel A of figure 4 shows that the largest

treatment effect for services for women is found within 10 km of a mine, with an 8 percentage

point increase in the probability that a woman works in the service sector. This is equivalent to

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Input:
**productive native women to increase their labour supply.**
A caveat in the case of refugees from Ukraine is that this could mean working below their qualifications or in the informal sector, making the overall effect for productivity unclear.
Nevertheless, as availability of care and housework services increases, it becomes easier for women mainly to combine family and professional lives and increase labour supply.
Such effects may be stronger for countries with less accessible childcare. Furtado (2015) reviews this literature, finding evidence from Australia, Hong Kong, Italy, Singapore, Spain, Switzerland, Spain, United Kingdom, and the United States.
Additionally, Furtado (2016) in the USA in the 1980-2000 period finds that married women and women with graduate degrees increase their fertility in response to low-skilled immigration.
Results are causal, as the author exploits the role of ethnic network in immigrant location decisions.

40 41

**Firms respond to immigrant inflows by introducing**

**production technologies complementary to their skills, thus**

**making their skill-group and potentially firms themselves**

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Input:
Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland Vocational or lower Secondary Higher Data is limited, but it appears refugees found work in sectors where the labour market was particularly tight. Publicly available data does not give the numbers of social security registrations of native workers by NACE sector. For this reason, in the absence of administrative data, to approximate the share of Ukrainian workers in particular sectors it was necessary to use Statistics Poland survey data. The share of workers with Ukrainian citizenship grew more in sectors that were experiencing the highest wage and salaries growth before refugee displacement. This eased their entry into the labour market.
The refugees were also quick to set-up their own businesses or become self-employed.
Accommodation and food, as a sector, has been experiencing a particularly large growth in wages and salaries in 2021, as it re-opened after the Covid-19 pandemic, and subsequently it recorded a particularly large growth in the share of Ukrainian workers. Transportation has been the only sector in which the share and number of Ukrainian workers declined.

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Input:
Second, panel regression analysis shows that a larger influx of Ukrainian refugees at the poviat level was accompanied by a larger increase in employment rates for Polish citizens along with a larger decrease in registered unemployment rates. The data sample for all regressions encompassed quarterly data for all 380 poviats from Q1 2022 to Q2 2024.
The Ukrainian refugee share variable was constructed as the share of Ukrainian refugees among all employed, temporarily employed, and self-employed persons insured with ZUS in a given poviat at the end of the quarter. The employment rate of Polish citizens was constructed as the share of Polish citizens who are employed, Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

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Input:
temporarily employed, and self-employed and who are insured with ZUS, divided by the population from GUS in a given poviat in a given quarter (estimated based on halfyear population data). The unemployment rate is the registered unemployment rate series from GUS. Fixed effects panel regressions show that an increase in the employment share of Ukrainian refugees by 1 percentage point correlates with an increase in Polish citizens' employment rates by 0.5% and a decrease in the unemployment rate by 0.3%, in the preferred specification with dummy variables for all quarters. All results are statistically significant at a 0.01 level.

**Chart 26. Polish citizens employment rate** **Chart 27. Polish citizens unemployment rate**

Eurostat survey data, 20-64 age group Eurostat survey data, 20-64 age group 3.6% 83.8% 83.6% 83.2%

**Chart 28. Effect of a 1 pp. change in employment share of Ukrainian refugees on**

Panel model of all 380 poviats quarterly data from Q1 2022 to Q2 2024. Results are statistically significant at a 0.01 level.

Polish citizens employment rate Unemployment rate

1.0 1.0

0 0

-1.0 -1.0

-2.0 -2.0

No time Seasonal Quarterly No time Seasonal Quarterly dummies dummies dummies dummies dummies dummies

registered unemployment rate series from GUS

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Input:
Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland © UNHCR / Anna Liminowicz

# **3.** Economic impact modelling

Simple back-of-the-envelope calculations give the intuition behind how additional workers help to grow the economy.
The simplest estimate would be to assume that an increase of employment by 1.4-2.2% will grow the Gross Domestic Product by an equal percentage. In such a case, we would need to assume that labour is the only production factor, and thus all of GDP can be equally divided between workers.
However, this is not the case, as GDP is not just a function of labour, but also of capital that workers have at their disposal – all the machines, computer programs, offices, and the like. As displacement is unexpected and refugee status (both legal and intent to stay long term) at first is uncertain, companies take time to increase their stocks of capital to the new workers. A more elaborate estimate would account for the part of GDP Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

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**Economic impact modelling**
Economic impact of Ukrainian refugees has been estimated in the general equilibrium Deloitte D.Climate model that accounts for their labour, consumption, and tax inputs.
Such models are a gold standard in policy modelling used by central banks, academia, and other institutions, because they can simulate counterfactual scenarios.
Thus, we can distinguish the positive labour market shock from the inflow of refugees and analyse various scenarios independently of all other recent macroeconomic developments (Chapter 3).

We find that refugees from Ukraine as workers, entrepreneurs, consumers, and taxpayers had a positive impact on economic output, which will increase in the long run. The Deloitte D.Climate general equilibrium model finds that refugees from Ukraine in the long-term will contribute 0.9-1.35% to the Gross Domestic Product.
In our model, the long-term is defined as the period over which the economy fully adjusts to the shock of the initial refugee inflow; it does not include other aspects, e.g. refugee children growing-up and entering labour market. These results are 08 09

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**downgrading.** With the median wages
of Ukrainian refugees estimated at 84% (SEIS survey) or 80% (NBP 2024 survey) of the national median (see chapter 2), the difference for average wages may be even larger. This is because medians are insensitive to high earners who typically inflate average earnings. Such high earners may suffer significant downgrading considering the unfavourable occupational structure of Ukrainian refugees. There are many reasons to this, from occupational licensing to a high level of language fluency required by high-skill jobs. [28] Ukrainian Pre-war Other Polish refugees Ukrainians foreigners citizens Drivers (truck, bus) Teachers Medical professions (physician, dentist, nurse, midwife) Legal professions (legal counsel, barrister, notary, bailiff) Taxi drivers Others Source: Deloitte own elaboration based on ZUS data on June 30th 2024.

26 As described in chapter 2, SEIS measures incomes on the household level. Using it to estimate individual wages likely underrepresents lowest and highest incomes.
Details are available in the Online Technical Appendix.

27 Note that the GUS (2024) data for the host population is not exactly comparable, as it does not include microenterprises, it covers an earlier period and focuses on gross and average wages.

28

---
[28] Lessem and Sanders (2020) modelled immigrant wage growth in the United States, finding that in a counterfactual model eliminating barriers to occupational entry

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Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

**Recently arrived Ukrainian refugees,**

**those with below tertiary education**

**and in older age group are most**

**likely to communicate in Polish at**

**intermediate and lower levels.** Based
on the SEIS UNHCR survey, a logistic regression has been performed to find out which categories of Ukrainian refugees may most require Polish language improvement. [29] Results show that the odds of only zero to intermediate Polish knowledge decrease with every month since arrival. Ukrainian refugees in the 18 to 29 age group have the lowest odds of having an intermediate or lower level of Polish. It translates into a 38% probability, even lower than the 41% for refugees with tertiary education. The group with the highest odds (70% probability) of zero to intermediate Polish are Ukrainian refugees aged 50 to 64. The results by employment sectors are not statistically significant, other than for manufacturing. The results are intuitive, with the best language skills among refugees working in health and education, and the lowest among those working in construction, other services, and trade.

**Addressing the gap in language**

**fluency would yield significant**

---
[29] A dummy variable that takes the value of 1 in case of none, beginner, or intermediate language knowledge, and 0 for other levels has been regressed against a

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With the exception of Republic of Moldova, the poverty line for each country was defined as 50% of the median
[equivalized disposable income (after social transfers) as reported by](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Glossary:Equivalised_disposable_income) [Eurostat for 2023. This figure was indexed](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat) towards 2024 using national annual wage inflation data for the third quarter of 2024. As the Republic of Moldova does not currently run the SILC survey, the absolute poverty line as reported by the country’s National Bureau of Statistics was used instead. Host poverty rates were based on the same poverty threshold. With the except of Republic of Moldova, these were equal to the at-risk-of-poverty (AROP) rate reported by Eurostat. On

**14**

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Input:
**taxpayers** . Currently between 225 and
350 thousand refugees from Ukraine are estimated to be working in Poland. The lower bound is the number from social security data, while the higher bound is the product of employment rate from the surveys and working age population with active PESEL UKR numbers (Chapter 2).

Structural worker shortages, one of the lowest unemployment rates in the European Union, record high vacancies, and high education attainment of refugees eased their labour market integration. The number of Polish citizens aged 20-64 has declined by 2.6 million from its peak in early 2010. [7] Despite COVID-19 and geopolitical shocks, the unemployment rate oscillated in recent years around 3% in Poland, and in February 2022 only Czechia exhibited a lower rate in the EU. [8] In Q4‘2021 the share of companies reporting vacancies stood at 49%, the highest level on record, and has been slowly declining since then. [9] In July-August 2023, 56% of refugees declared possessing tertiary education and their employment rate has been almost one-third higher than for others. [10]

---
[7] According to the Labour Force Survey data from Eurostat.
[8] According to the harmonized unemployment rates from Eurostat.
[9] According to the quarterly NBP survey.
[10] According to the UNHCR (2023) survey.

harmonized unemployment rates from Eurostat

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The Ukrainian refugee population also faces financial barriers to access critical services: one in ten households have no health insurance and 22 % of those surveyed answered that they cannot afford fees at local health care clinics. Households that contain a member with a disability are also more likely to be below the poverty line. This group’s poverty rate stands at 59% versus 43% for households with no members with disabilities.

**Support with accommodation expenses – an**

**important vulnerability shield**
Overall, almost half (48%) of refugee households in the region report receiving accommodation or housing assistance. Twenty percent are living in With accommodation rent support Bulgaria Hungary Poland Romania Slovakia Region

1. Calculations for Moldova were not conducted, as this country is not
included into the [EU statistics on income and living conditions (SILC)](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/microdata/european-union-statistics-on-income-and-living-conditions)
[survey, which the OECD uses as the basis for host country poverty](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/microdata/european-union-statistics-on-income-and-living-conditions) assessments 2. Results for the Czech Republic not individually presented due to sampling limitations 3. Accommodation rent support has been calculated as the difference between the actual equivalized accommodation expense and the median equivalized market rent in the region

EU statistics on income and living conditions

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With partners, UNHCR continues to advocate with the Indonesian government at all levels and works
to strengthen collaboration with coastal communities to ensure boats in distress at sea are rescued
and able to disembark in Indonesia with adequate sites designated to host those who arrive by sea.
In addition to arrivals by sea, UNHCR continues to advocate with competent authorities when
contacted by individuals arriving by air if their right to seek asylum was denied at the airport.

### **Resettlement Expectations**

Refugees and authorities consider Indonesia to be a “transit country” prior to the realization of a
solution in a third country. The refugee assistance models established by the Comprehensive Plan of
Action for Indochinese Refugees and the Regional Cooperation Agreement, as well as
disproportionately high resettlement opportunities from Indonesia when compared to opportunities
from many other host countries, have perpetuated this narrative. The pervasive and persistent
misconception regarding the extent to which refugees are entitled to resettlement and the belief that,
with time, resettlement will be accessible for all refugees in the country has a negative impact on the
refugee population and the protection space in Indonesia.

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Input:
Voluntary
 return
 is
 guided
 by
 internationally
 recognized
 standards,
 which
 inter
 alia
provide
 that
 refugees
 have
 the
 right
 to
 return
 voluntarily,
 in
 safety
 and
 dignity,
 to
 their
own
 countries.
 A
 freely
 expressed
 wish
 to
 return
 by
 those
 displaced
 is
 a
 pre-‐condition
 to
any
 voluntary
 return.
 Recognized
 principles
 also
 include:
 taking
 measures
 to
 address
any
 root
 causes
 of
 displacement
 (cross-‐border
 and
 internal)
 by
 all
 parties
 to
 the
 past
conflict;
 that
 refugees
 and
 IDPs
 have
 the
 right
 to
 freedom
 of
 movement
 and
 the
 right
 to
return
 to
 their
 place
 of
 former
 residence
 or
 another
 place
 of
 their
 choice
 in
 the
 country
of
 origin;
 and
 that
 UNHCR
 and
 partners
 have
 access
 to
 returnee
 areas
 in
 order
 to
monitor
 their
 return.

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Input:
_UNHCR
 Discussion
 Paper
 –15
 June
 2013_

A
 set
 of
 standards
 and
 qualitative
 and
 quantitative
 indicators
 should
 be
 developed
 to
measure
 progress
 toward
 the
 achievement
 of
 the
 reintegration
 objectives.

This
 section
 proposes
 various
 activities
 that
 should
 be
 considered
 to
 address
 immediate
as
 well
 as
 longer-‐term
 needs.
 UNHCR
 could
 take
 the
 lead
 on
 these
 activities
 or
 provide
 a
co-‐ordination
 or
 advocacy
 role,
 depending
 on
 the
 specific
 activity.

**10.1.** **Phase
 1
 (current
 phase):
 Strengthening
 of
 IDP
 operations
 and**

**preparation
 for
 refugee
 return
 while
 providing
 integrated**

**assistance
 to
 spontaneous
 returnees**

- Build
 on
 previously
 established
 co-‐ordination
 mechanisms
 -‐
 such
 as
 monthly
inter-‐agency
 meetings
 at
 state
 level,
 the
 South-‐East
 Consultation
 and
 cross-‐
border
 meetings
 -‐
 to
 strengthen
 co-‐ordination
 on
 durable
 solutions.
 Co-‐
ordination
 systems
 shall
 facilitate
 respect
 for
 key
 protection
 and
 assistance
standards
 and
 enable
 the
 development
 of
 a
 strategic
 vision
 for
 durable
 solutions.

- Strengthen
 information
 management
 and
 analysis
 capacities,
 including
 the
development
 of
 tools
 to
 capture
 and
 analyse
 patterns
 of
 spontaneous
 returns
and
 carry
 out
 protection
 assessments
 and
 monitoring.

 Information
 products
will
 also
 aim
 at
 supporting
 informed
 decision-‐making
 by
 refugees
 in
 Thailand.

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Input:
Power BI Desktop Access to Basic Services Guaranteeing that IDPs have sustained access to essential services such as healthcare, education, water, and sanitation is vital to preventing dependence on humanitarianassistance.
Simultaneously, ensuring the internally displaced are included in developing national systems, including protection programmes and services and development strategies, is vital for improving the living conditions and well-being of communities.
Pathway #2:

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Input:
The structure of the Ukrainian population in Poland changed radically after 24th February 2022. Up until 2021, Ukrainians in Poland were mostly men (close to two-thirds) looking for work, often leaving their families back in Ukraine. After the beginning of the full-scale war in Ukraine, refugees fleeing the war started to arrive.
They were primarily women and children.
This is consistent with a change in the nature of migration flows, from primarily economic migrants to forcefully displaced refugees.

**Chart 2.** Number of Ukrainian men and women registered in Poland for social security.

800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2021 Q42 022 Q4 2023 Q3 Number of insured men with Ukrainian citizenship Number of insured women with Ukrainian citizenship

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Input:
4. Access to National Public Services

In practical terms, a formal State led system for recognizing foreign diplomas of refugees and foreigners does
exist through an authentication mechanism led by the National Office for Higher Education Examinations
and Competitions (Office National des Examens et Concours du Supérieur - ONECS). Regarding driving
licenses, only Chadian driving licenses can be obtained through ANATS after fulfilling ANATS requirements.

### **4. Access to National Public Services**

The new asylum legislation guarantees the right to health, education, public assistance and public relief for
refugees and asylum-seekers in possession of their individual documentation on par with nationals of Chad.

**4.1** **Education**

Article 21 of the [2020 Asylum Law](https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2091861/645b938a4.pdf) specifies that every refugee or asylum-seeker in possession of individual
documentation enjoys the right to education and vocational training under the same conditions as nationals.
[The same is reiterated by Article 65 of the 2023 Decree. Despite not explicitly mentioning asylum-seekers](https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2091861/645b938a4.pdf)
in its wording, Article 32 of the 2020 Law and Article 75 of the 2023 Decree should be interpreted in the
spirit of Article 21 of the law and Article 65 of the Decree that asylum-seekers are equally entitled to the
same treatment as nationals regarding education.

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A data mention described by its characteristics or producer rather than a proper name.

A data mention that only generally references data, information, or statistics.