Input:
observations. The ENILEMS-ENLACE panel also includes the information from ENOE

for all 3,714 matched observations plus information from ENLACE's context question

in means between the observations of ENILEMS that were merged with ENLACE scores

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Input: Deciding on whether to flee or not to flee a conflict (the migration choice) can be an individual or household choice and risk coping strategies may include temporary migration, shuttling between places, migration of only selected members of the households or migration of the whole household. This implies that individuals may stay put throughout the period observed, join or leave the household during the period, or have several episodes of out and immigration. Households may decide to leave and come back several times. In econometric terms, this means that longitudinal data may be left and right censored and have spells within. They are therefore the most complex set of panel data possible and require particular treatment of data and modeling. Survival or duration models can usually accommodate many of these complexities but it is very rare to find similar data sets used in published articles. Collecting such type of data is also not obvious, particularly if conflict is intense and survey areas cannot be reached. This is an issue where empirical economics could provide a real contribution by defining the optimal data format and adapting panel models to this format. Macro models Macroeconomics has attempted to model forced migration using models borrowed from the trade and economic migration literature such as the gravitational model (Echevarria and Gardeazabal, 2016) or used other macro models to test the impact of refugees on trade (White and Tadess, 2010). A more recent body of work is adapting trade models to take into account stochastic shocks in a dynamic framework (Cameron et al., 2007; Artuc et al., 2008). These are rational expectations models that are able to model the unpredictability of shocks, and recent work has tried to adapt these models to the context of violent

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Input:
Based on specification (1), we estimate total 2013 GDP for Kenya at $26.8 billion (2005 USD), close to its actual level of $26.9 billion (WDI, 2014). On county-level, we find that Nairobi had the highest overall GDP in 2013 ($3.4 billion), followed by Kiambu ($3.0 billion), Nakuru ($2.3 billion), Nyeri ($1 billion), and Kilifi ($1 billion). Counties with the lowest GDP are the sparsely populated counties of Isiolo ($56 million), Lamu ($58 million), Samburu ($67 million), Elgeyo Marakwet ($108 million), and Tharaka Nithi ($109 million). Nairobi has the highest contribution to national GDP (13 percent), followed by Kiambu (11 percent),

Based on specification (1), we estimate total 2013 GDP for Rwanda at $4.58 billion (2005 USD), only slightly higher than the national-accounts estimate of $4.57 billion (WDI, 2014). On the district-level, we find that Gasabo district had the highest GDP in 2013 ($925 million), followed by the two other districts of Kigali (Kicukiro at $538 million and Nyarugenge at $371 million). Districts in the secondary urban centers come next: Rubabu ($219 million), Rusizi ($186 million), Huye ($166 million), and

As evident from the title of this paper, we also tried to estimate poverty levels and changes based on nightlights data. The estimated associations were however not robust, and more time and effort would need to be invested in examining this relationship in a more detailed fashion.

Based on national labor survey data (EPAM 2010), it appears that mean income from mining activity for each active worker is higher than the average income for all other activities, especially the agricultural and industrial sectors in the Sikasso region.

WDI, 2014
national labor survey data (EPAM 2010)

nightlights data
national labor survey data

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Input: 18 Figure 3 Job finding, job separation and the change in employment for young men who ever worked between 2016 and 2020 by half year and nationality conditional on informal employment in their most recent job (Seasonally adjusted) Source: Authors ’ calculations using SYPJ data Figure 4 Job finding, job separation and the change in employment for Syrian young men who ever worked between 2016 and 2020 by half year and residency in camp (Seasonally adjusted) Source: Authors ’ calculations using SYPJ data Usage context: background mention, supporting mention, primary mention.

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Input: 1 Introduction The political and economic crisis in Venezuela has given rise to a massive exodus, esti- mated at 4. 3 million people (as of the end of 2019). Many Venezuelans sought refuge in neighboring countries. It is estimated that 1. 5 million Venezuelans had settled in Colombia by the end of 2019, and over 2 million elsewhere in Latin America. Naturally, Venezuelan migrants have sought employment in the host countries but, because of their recent arrival and their transient status, our knowledge of their working conditions is scant. Our paper aims to ﬁll this gap focusing on Ecuador, where almost 400, 000 Venezuelans have settled and many more have transited through the country on the way to other destinations. More speciﬁcally, we provide the ﬁrst analysis of the labor-market conditions of Venezuelan migrants in Ecuador, based on a new nationally representative survey of this population that also includes information on the Ecuadorans living in the same localities. The survey (known by its Spanish acronym EPEC) was promoted by the World Bank and the government of Ecuador and implemented during the summer of 2019. The design and scope of the survey are unique in the context of the countries across Latin America hosting Venezuelan migrants. Usage context: supporting mention, background mention, primary mention.

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Input: The 2023 survey collected data on 1,980 rural enterprises across nine provinces using a stratified random sample drawn from the business registration database maintained by the national statistics office. The 2023 survey questionnaire covered enterprise age, legal form, employment, revenue, access to credit, and adoption of digital technologies. Due to budgetary constraints, the 2023 survey did not include a module on international trade linkages; this limitation is noted where relevant in the interpretation of findings on market integration.

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Input: The World Bank's online screening tool classified this operation as High Risk for GBV/SEA/SH due to the presence of civil works in isolated rural communities and a history of gender-based violence documented in the project area. In response, the project's ESMF includes an expanded GBV annex specifying minimum requirements for contractor codes of conduct, confidential reporting channels, survivor support services, and community sensitization activities. These requirements are contractually binding and subject to third-party verification on a biannual basis.

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Input:
**Appendix E: LFS Harmonization Across Survey Rounds**

The LFS underwent a questionnaire redesign between round 4 (2015) and round 5 (2016), introducing changes to the employment status classification and the self-employment income module. To enable pooled analysis across rounds 1–7, we harmonize the LFS employment status variable using a crosswalk table developed by the national statistics office. The harmonization reduces the number of employment status categories from seven (rounds 5–7) to four (rounds 1–4), which is sufficient for the binary employed/not-employed distinction used in our main analysis.

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Input: in Bangladesh). The data set we use does not cover the 5. 1 million Palestinian refugees who are under the man- date of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UN- RWA). The deﬁnition of Palestinian refugees in international law is distinct from other refugees. Palestinian refugees are people “ whose normal place of residence was Mandatory Palestine be- tween June 1946 and May 1948, who lost both their homes and means of livelihood as a result of the 1948 Arab-Israeli conﬂict ”. Importantly, their patrilineal descendants are also considered refugees regardless of citizenship (UNRWA 2009). For the purpose of the analysis, we do not include Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), who are deﬁned as “ persons who have been forced or obliged to ﬂee or leave their home or place of habitual residence, in particular as a result of or in order to avoid the effects of armed conﬂict, situations of generalized violence, violations of human rights or natural or human-made disas- ters, and who have not crossed an internationally recognized border ” (United Nations 2004). The categories “ returnees ”, “ Stateless ”, and “ Others of concern ” are also not included. Usage context: primary mention, supporting mention, background mention.

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Input: protracted nature of refugee hosting in Ethiopia, it is essential to better understand how vocational training programs and cooperatives can become self-sustainable, especially in the more remote border regions with poor market linkages. Box 3.3: Refugee Vocational Training and Cooperatives Jobs and Livelihoods 35 In line with high reliance on remittances, labor force participation and employment rates among OCP refugees are low, with rates similar for male and female refugees. Table 3.2 presents labor force participation (LFP) data; among those aged 15-64, LFP is 46 percent for refugees and 66 percent for hosts. This increases to 67 and 72 percent when you use the relaxed definition of unemployment, reflecting the large number of OCP refugees who say they are ready to work but are not actively searching. The unemployment rate is an astonishing 63 percent for refugees relative to 12 percent for hosts, and it increases to 75 percent under the relaxed definition. Only 17 percent of OCP refugees work, and 23 percent are inactive and not in school. Female refugees have similarly large rates of inactivity and unemployment, and the total share working is similar to male refugees. Female refugees also have high rates of self-employment relative to female

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Input:
obtained from the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP). Stocks with prices less than

of all stocks included in CRSP.

Firm characteristics are obtained from COMPUSTAT. Size is computed as the log of total assets.

of stock returns on the Fama and French (2015) 5 factors.

Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP)

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Input: The LFS is a rotating panel in which households are interviewed for two consecutive quarters, rotated out for two quarters, and then re-interviewed for two further quarters (a 2-2-2 rotation scheme). Because the LFS does not follow individuals across household moves, our analysis is restricted to non-movers — defined as individuals observed in the same dwelling across all four LFS interview waves. This restriction reduces the analytical sample from 18,400 to 14,230 individuals but eliminates the bias that would arise if mobility decisions are correlated with labor market outcomes.

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Input: Figure 18: Significant Refugee Returns by Country of Origin 1991 – 2015 Source: UNHCR Statistical Online Population Database, UNHCR Global Trends 2015 Note: Countries selected based on their cumulative returns of refugees over the period 1991-2015. Return does not necessarily lead to the full reintegration of a person into their home country or area of origin. In the absence of global data on the success of reintegration following return, data on returns appear to be taken as indication of sustainable return. In reality, many returnees face impediments to reintegration and continue to have specific economic and social vulnerabilities linked to their displacement. They may not be able to reclaim land, access sufficient financial resources (e. g. accumulated during their displacement) or reestablish social networks in areas of origin, which are critical factors for successful reintegration (World Bank 2015). Sustainable refugee return is therefore not a one-off event but a process that provides returnees with adequate safety, housing, livelihoods and services that address their specific vulnerabilities and reduce the likelihood of secondary displacement (World Bank 2015). Figure 19: Voluntary Returns of Refugees 1991 – 2015 Source: UNHCR Statistical Online Population Database, UNHCR Global Trends 2015 Note: Includes returns of refugees and people in refugee- like situations protected or assisted by UNHCR.

UNHCR Statistical Online Population Database

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Input: Figure 20: Returns of IDPs Protected or Assisted by UNHCR 1993 – 2015 Source: UNHCR Statistical Online Population Database, UNHCR Global Trends 2015 Note: Includes returns of IDPs and people in IDP-like situations assisted and protected by UNHCR. Consequently, the average length of protracted refugee situations has increased over the past two decades according to UNHCR estimates (see Table 2). UNHCR estimates that the average length of ongoing

UNHCR Statistical Online Population Database

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Input: Figure 18: Significant Refugee Returns by Country of Origin 1991 – 2015 Source: UNHCR Statistical Online Population Database, UNHCR Global Trends 2015 Note: Countries selected based on their cumulative returns of refugees over the period 1991-2015. Return does not necessarily lead to the full reintegration of a person into their home country or area of origin. In the absence of global data on the success of reintegration following return, data on returns appear to be taken as indication of sustainable return. In reality, many returnees face impediments to reintegration and continue to have specific economic and social vulnerabilities linked to their displacement. They may not be able to reclaim land, access sufficient financial resources (e. g. accumulated during their displacement) or reestablish social networks in areas of origin, which are critical factors for successful reintegration (World Bank 2015). Sustainable refugee return is therefore not a one-off event but a process that provides returnees with adequate safety, housing, livelihoods and services that address their specific vulnerabilities and reduce the likelihood of secondary displacement (World Bank 2015). Figure 19: Voluntary Returns of Refugees 1991 – 2015 Source: UNHCR Statistical Online Population Database, UNHCR Global Trends 2015 Note: Includes returns of refugees and people in refugee- like situations protected or assisted by UNHCR. Usage context: primary mention, background mention, supporting mention.

UNHCR Statistical Online Population Database

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Input:
The effort was inspired by the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) and involved USDM experts and experienced officials from Mexico, which had recently implemented a similar drought monitor process.

The World Bank performed a disaster risk financing diagnostic to gain a more nuanced understanding of the economic impacts of the drought throughout the Eswatini economy.

World Development 157, 105932
Anseeuw, W., Bache, W., Bru, T., Giger, M., Lay, J., Messerli, P., Nolte, K., 2012. Transnational land deals for agriculture in the
global South: Analytical report based on the land matrix database.

by SGC** 2015 1,935 1,530 28,345 0 0.54 2016 2,817 1,916 42,754 0 0.87 2017 3,388 2,139 43,358 0 0.84 2018 5,108 3,519 65,859 0.06 0.85 2019 8,710 5,327 83,269 0.51 0.69 2020 2,431 847 13,408 0 0.50 2021 7,805 5,232 58,442 0.09 0.38 Pre-Prozorro 7,094 4,774 54,425 0 0.41 Prozorro 711 458 4,017 1 0 2022 2,041 1,043 9,964 1 0 Total 34,235 21,553 345,399 0.22 0.61 _Source:_ Own computation from SGC and Prozorro data as described in the text.

0.322 0.255 0.469 0.202 0.174 0.319 0.203 Contract length (years) 8.61 8.33 9.51 8.84 9.04 7.98 7.08 _**Land use**_ Crops 0.48 0.48 0.47 0.65 0.66 0.61 0.69 Pasture 0.35 0.34 0.36 0.

U.S. Drought Monitor
land matrix database

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Input: .04 7.98 7.08 _**Land use**_ Crops 0.48 0.48 0.47 0.65 0.66 0.61 0.69 Pasture 0.35 0.34 0.36 0.29 0.27 0.37 0.38 Forest 0.15 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.06 _**Distance in km to**_ Main road 8.65 8.48 9.22 9.31 9.30 9.32 9.38 Nearest city 15.64 15.66 15.58 16.58 16.59 16.57 17.16 Grain elevator 13.39 13.55 12.84 13.56 13.50 13.84 14.43 Kyiv 297.22 295.17 304.04 312.33 309.85 323.26 334.55 _Source:_ Own computation from SGC and Prozorro data as described in the text.

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Input: Both treatment and control group respondents report equally high confidence in their ability to return to school “ should [she] decide to do so. ” These findings from the quantitative impact evaluation complement the results from a set of qualitative focus group discussions that were held with participants at the end of the 6 months of classroom training. Twenty-five percent of the trainees from Round 1 participated in a total of 34 focus group discussions that covered a variety of topics including their satisfaction with the program and their empowerment in both social and economic realms. The trainees overwhelmingly voiced a high degree of satisfaction with the training, and trainers commented on how the motivation or “ seriousness ” of the participants grew over the 6 month period. The trainees credited the transport allowance and free childcare in particular as features that facilitated their full participation; as one trainee commented, 22 Questions adapted from the Adolescent Self-Regulation Inventory, developed and validated for youth in the United States by Moilanen, 2006. The questions were revised and translated into an 11-item for the Liberian context. In the future, we plan to conduct basic testing on this scale on internal consistency and reliability. 17

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Input: Our evaluation explicitly investigated these spillovers by including household-level indicators such as food security and attitudes of the household head toward gender norms. Our results show strong impacts on economic outcomes, including large and statistically significant increases in employment and earnings of EPAG participants. We show mixed results on empowerment- related outcomes, and very little evidence of spillovers on non-participants. Self-assessed measures of self-confidence show huge gains, as does ownership and control over monetary resources such as savings. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows: Section 2 describes the EPAG project including some of its innovative design features and implementation details. Section 3 reviews the methodology of the evaluation and Section 4 presents results on the three groups of outcomes discussed above: economic, empowerment, and spillovers. Section 5 includes a short discussion of cost-effectiveness. Section 6 presents a series of robustness checks and Section 7 concludes with a discussion of next steps and policy implications. 2. The EPAG Project The EPAG project is part of a larger Adolescent Girls Initiative (AGI) administered by the World Bank with support from the Nike Foundation and the Governments of Australia, the United Kingdom, Norway, Denmark, and Sweden. Launched in Washington DC in October 2008, the AGI was spearheaded by President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, who signed on to undertake the initiative ’ s first pilot project in Liberia. The Liberian pilot was launched in March 2010 and has served as a role model to seven subsequent pilot projects in Rwanda, South Sudan, Nepal, Afghanistan, Haiti, Jordan, and Lao PDR. Under the global AGI, young women and adolescent girls are given a package of skills training and complementary services in order to facilitate their successful transition to employment. In the case of EPAG, the intervention consisted of a six month phase of classroom-based training, followed by a six 4 Usage context: primary mention, supporting mention, background mention.

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Input:
To complete this analysis with information on how these losses are distributed in the population and especially on the poorest, a survey was conducted with informal dwellers affected by the 2005 floods. It was found that the aggregated losses they suffered from are about $250 million (for total losses due to the 2005 flood of about $2 billion), but the relative impact on their savings and consumption was extremely large, with average capital losses of the same order of magnitude than their average total savings (in other terms, their savings were totally wiped out by the event).

<!-- PAGE 12 --> _Figure 2: Roofer wages in an area where losses have been significant after the 2004 hurricane season in_ _Florida. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Surveys in May 03, Nov 03,_ _May 04, Nov 04, May 05, May 06, May 07._

The box figure illustrates the effect of insurance penetration [13] on the household's budget, for a July 2005 like flood estimated using the ARIO model. Three scenarios are included: (i) γ=0, equivalent to the absence of insurance system, but with an access to credit; (ii) the current value of flood insurance penetration estimated by RMS (γ=0.08 for households, γ=0.15 for firms); and (iii) γ=1, representing the situation where all the reconstruction is paid for by insurance.

<!-- PAGE 5 --> methodologies and approaches, and they often reach quite different results. In the US, for instance, a systematic analysis by (Downton and Pielke, 2005) showed that loss estimates differ by a factor of 2 or more for half of the floods that cause less than $50 million in damages.

One of the appealing features of night lights data is their availability on every level. Night lights
data are measured on the so-called 30 arc sec level, corresponding to roughly 1 square

Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Surveys

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Input:
more for half of the floods that cause less than $50 million in damages.

One of the appealing features of night lights data is their availability on every level. Night lights
data are measured on the so-called 30 arc sec level, corresponding to roughly 1 square kilometer
at the equator.

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Input: 10 as the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), though researchers have reduced under-reporting by providing special training to interviewers, placing greater emphasis on respondents ’ privacy and safety, and allowing women multiple opportunities to disclose their experiences (Ellsberg et al., 2001a; Garcia Moreno et al., 2003; Ellsberg et al., forthcoming). Estimates of the magnitude of the problem Population-based surveys have found that between 10-70 % of women report being physically assaulted by an intimate male partner at some point in their lives (Heise, Ellsberg and Gottemoeller, 1999). See Annex A for estimates from many recent population based studies (Ellsberg et al., forthcoming). Findings from a multi-country study on domestic violence and women ’ s health carried out by the World Health Organization in fifteen sites and ten countries found that between 13-62 % of women had experienced physical violence by a partner over the course of their lifetime, and between 3-29 % of women reported violence within the past year (Figure 1. 1). Figure 1. 1. Usage context: background mention, supporting mention, primary mention.

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Input: most land cover by built-up and shops, and nearest to Zone capital city, respectively. All estimates are controlled for refugee camps. Standard errors in parentheses. +p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001 Variables Basic Model Local Market Proximity Market access Model I Model II Model I Model II Annexes 119 Table D.16: Proximity and market accessibility effects on engagement in agriculture activity: logit model Variables Proximity Market access Model I Model II Individual feature Male 0.1979*** 0.2016*** 0.1998*** (0.0289) (0.0286) (0.0297) Age -0.0307*** -0.0294*** -0.0296*** (0.0083) (0.0081) (0.0088) Age squared 0.0004*** 0.0004*** 0.0004** (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001) Some primary -0.1403*** -0.1436*** -0.1484*** (0.0305) (0.0298) (0.0307) Household feature HH size: member age [15,29] -0.0157 -0.0171 -0.0186 (0.0118) (0.0113) (0.0117) HH size: member age (30,44] 0.0422* 0.0414* 0.0320+ (0.0179) (0.0178) (0.0185) HH size: member age (45,64] 0.0187 0.0278 0.0314 (0.0221) (0.0226) (0.0237) HH access electricity -0.2980** -0.2655** -0.2658** (0.0929

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Input: ] 0.0187 0.0278 0.0314 (0.0221) (0.0226) (0.0237) HH access electricity -0.2980** -0.2655** -0.2658** (0.0929) (0.0884) (0.0974) Proximity and market access Level two 0.2065*** (0.0607) Level three 0.2358** (0.0788) Level four 0.3559*** (0.0769) Distance to Zone city (Km) 0.0022*** (0.0006) Market accessibility indicator -0.0792* (0.0330) Observations 742 737 742 Chi-square test 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 R2 0.2517 0.2435 0.2128 Source: World Bank Staff based on SESRE 2023. Standard errors in

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Input: Regrettably, until now almost all enrollment numbers cited have been based on establishment surveys which do just that. These data sources show that around 200, 000 children were enrolled full-time in madrassas before 2001. Since 2001, our school census suggests that these numbers may have increased somewhat, although the experience varies across districts. To put this number in context, total primary enrollment (grades 1-5) in public and private schools stood at 17. 4 million in 2003 (Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Finance, 2003). The choice of madrassa schooling viewed as either the percentage of eligible children or the percentage of enrolled children, is statistically insignificant for the average Pakistani household. Enrollment in madrassas accounts for approximately 0. 3 percent of all children between the ages of 5 and 19. Given that the overall enrollment rate for this age group is roughly 42 percent, this represents less than 0. 7 percent of all enrolled children, an order of magnitude less than the 33 percent cited by the International Crisis Group report (2002). 3 This is complemented with the census of private schools carried out by the Federal Bureau of Statistics in 2000 to provide statistics for private versus public enrollment. 4The PIHS is the equivalent of the widely used Living Standard Measurement Surveys (LSMS) implemented in various countries. See http: / / www. worldbank. org / lsms for extensive notes on the 1991 PIHS. See also www. statpak. gov. pk for information on the census and the Federal Bureau of Statistics data. Usage context: supporting mention, primary mention, background mention.

PIHS
Living Standard Measurement Surveys

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Input: Figure 19: Trust and Conﬂict in the Cross Section The problem with a lack of trust and strong group identities is that they penetrate and pervert formal institutions. The ethnic politics analyzed by Burgess et al. (2015) is just one example. Shayo and Zussman (2011), for example, use data from Israeli small claims courts to show that Arab and Jewish judges displayed signiﬁcant judicial ingroup bias. Furthermore, this bias is strongly associated with terrorism intensity in the vicinity of the court in the year preceding the ruling. Conﬁdence-building is also a crucial ingredient for the establishment of a fertile investment climate, which in turn is a trigger of economic development post conﬂict. This is the core message of the World Bank Report by Mills and Fan (2006). An important role of increasing trust doubtlessly goes to the media. It has been shown, for example, that hate radio in Rwanda played a critical role in the extent of ethnic violence during the genocide. 59 Other research has shown that media coverage can have strong eﬀects on political preferences more generally. 60 Perhaps the most direct proof of the crucial role played by the media in the post-conﬂict situation comes from DellaVigna et al. (2014). The authors exploit variation in radio reception of na- tionalistic Serbian radio in border regions in Croatia. Usage context: background mention, supporting mention, primary mention.

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Input: NGOs. Initiatives such as JIPS, a collaborative project of UN and NGO actors, have also been established to support governments and operational organizations to design and implement data collection processes. There are a variety of data sources for generating statistics on forced displacement, each of which has strengths and weaknesses. Despite the significant challenges, large amounts of data are collected and disseminated every year. The main data sources and methods for the generation of statistics on forcibly displaced populations include: (a) registration of refugees and asylum-seekers; (b) registration of IDPs; (c) profiling of IDPs; (d) population movement tracking systems; (e) national population censuses; (f) sample surveys; (g) border crossings; (h) administrative records and registers; (i) general population registers; and (j) a variety of estimation methods for producing statistics when adequate and reliable data on individuals are unavailable (UNSD 2014). Several of these data sources might be used together to triangulate estimates of stocks and flows for a particular displacement situation. Usage context: supporting mention, background mention, primary mention.

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Input:
data are collected from the World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI). In this context, TFP growth is:

Oil Metal **Trade Openness** Percent of GDP 1990 - 94 64 95 65 56 2010 - 14 77 94 93 70 **Herfindahl Index** Product Concentration 1990 - 94 0.41 0.84 0.69 0.29 2010 - 14 0.30 0.67 0.46 0.21 Market Concentration 1990 - 94 0.20 0.30 0.08 0.19 2010 - 14 0.20 0.15 0.28 0.18 **Natural Resources** Percent of GDP 1990 - 94 17.0 46.9 26.8 9.8 2010 - 14 13.2 43.0 16.3 8.9 Percent of total exports 1990 - 94 0.82 0.99 0.95 0.78 2010 - 14 0.73 0.89 0.71 0.72 _Sources: WDI, and author's calculations using WITS, COMTRADE_

World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI)

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Input: 2 INTRODUCTION In 2015, an estimated 2. 2 million Syrians Under Temporary Protection (SUTPs) were residing in Turkey, the majority arriving in the country over the last 4 years. 2 Turkey ’ s national population is roughly 75 million; recent refugees account for approximately 3 percent of the population. For a country that has never experienced such a large-scale, sudden inflow of foreigners, demographic changes in the composition of the population and labor force will yield unprecedented implications. This paper examines, as data allows, the relationship between the size of the foreign-born population and host community poverty rates in Turkey. First, this paper finds the poverty rates of ‘ recent migrants ’ near the Syrian border (NSB) significantly increased from 2009 to 2013. Second, the number of foreign-born households being captured by the Labor Force Survey (LFS) is expanding, which suggests a growing number of foreign households that are likely to be Syrians. Third, with respect to poverty, the results show no negative impacts on the host community as a result of the increasing size of the foreign-born population. The impact of SUTPs has been both positive and negative. Overall, a significant negative impact on host communities ’ welfare is not observed in the data. Usage context: primary mention, background mention, supporting mention.

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Input: There is a clear increase in the entry of new foreign ﬁrms which may be driven by refugees ’ enterpreneurship. Cheaper low-skilled labor may have helped all businesses cutting costs. Balkan and Tumen (2016) had also found a decline in prices and attribute their ﬁnding to lower labor costs, which may also be one of the mechanisms driving our results. Gross proﬁts and sales also appear to have gone up, which would be consistent with an increase in demand. As noted by Maystadt and Verwimp (2014), heterogeneous eﬀects on speciﬁc subgroups of the native population should be expected from refugee crises. In case of the Syrian refugee crisis in Turkey, the business activity in hosting region appears to have beneﬁted. For a complete picture of the eﬀects of the Syrian refugee crisis on local economies in Turkey, further research will be needed on market activity, health and longer term eﬀects. More speciﬁcally for the line of research this study focused on, further analysis using micro-level ﬁrm data would be needed to understand how ﬁrms adjust their activity, 24 Usage context: primary mention, background mention, supporting mention.

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Input:
and Fonden threshold information for 1,745. As shown in table 1, using 2000 census data, we

various administrative records that allow us to observe at the municipal level: the number of

**Keywords:** Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance; Financial Institutions; Climate Change and Disaster Risk; Shocks and Vulnerability to Poverty   _∗_ We would like to thank Artemio Couti˜no of SAGARPA who provided administrative CADENA data, as well as information about program rules.

To determine the effect of   insurance payments on yields and area sowed, we use agricultural production data from SAGARPA   detailing the annual hectares sowed, hectares harvested, and total production in metric tons at the   municipality-crop level.

Note. Standard errors are clustered at the state level. Asterisks indicate statistical significance: _∗_ _p_ _<_ 0 _._ 10, _∗∗_
_p_ _<_ 0 _._ 05, _[∗∗∗]_ _p_ _<_ 0 _._ 01. Observations are at the municipality-year-level. Hectares sowed are defined as the total
hectares growing any rainfed agricultural crop as reported in SAGARPA production data.

administrative CADENA data
SAGARPA production data

agricultural production data from SAGARPA

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Input: 29 evaluations have been conducted (Renton et al., 2000; Shaw, 2000; Shaw, 2002a; Shaw, 2002b; Paine et al., 2002; White, Greene and Murphy, 2003; Interagency working Group, 2003). For example, the Medical Research Council (from the United Kingdom) conducted an external evaluation of program effectiveness in the Gambia using key informant interviews, focus groups, and a KAP (knowledge, attitudes and practices) survey in four villages, including two program sites and two controls. That study found that the Gambia program improved self-reported attitudes and behaviors related to violence against women. Specifically, the program reduced the social acceptability of wife-beating at the community level and appeared to produce a corresponding drop in that behavior. Qualitative findings from other Stepping Stones sites suggest similar benefits. Program H (Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Jamaica, Mexico and Peru) is being carried out by four NGOs. It aims to change gender norms and sexual behaviors in Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Jamaica, Mexico and Peru (Barker, 2003; White, Green and Murphy, 2003; Guedes, 2004). Usage context: supporting mention, primary mention, background mention.

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Input: 9 Bank Account No member has a bank or mobile money account. 1 / 12 Many of the indicators align with goals identified in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, such as no hunger, good health, access to quality education, clean water and sanitation, and decent work, as well as indicators that are especially relevant for displaced people, such as possession of legal identification, physical safety, and food security. The focus on gendered dynamics justifies health indicators related to pregnancy care, combining information on prenatal care, assisted delivery, and early marriage. A full discussion of the MPI ’ s indicator selection can be found in Admasu et al. (2021). We focus on six of these 15 indicators that use individual-level data – viz years of schooling, school attendance, pregnancy care, early marriage, legal identification, and unemployment. Our intrahousehold analysis drops the two health indicators due to data limitations; the question about age at marriage was only asked to the household head in Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Sudan, whereas in Somalia and Sudan, it was applied to more members than the head. Usage context: supporting mention, background mention, primary mention.

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Input: All regression models are estimated using ordinary least squares with standard errors clustered at the DHS cluster level. Clustering at the DHS cluster level is appropriate because households within the same DHS cluster are subject to common shocks — including local health facility quality, crop yield variation, and community-level program exposure — that generate within-cluster correlation in error terms. Alternative specifications clustering at the administrative district level are presented in Appendix Table A4; point estimates are unchanged and standard errors are slightly wider.

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Input: This database lists seven categories: refugees, asylum-seekers, returned refugees, internally displaced persons (IDPs), returned IDPs, stateless persons and others of concern. For each group the database provides yearly information about their composition by loca- tion of residence and origin. We exploit only the data on “ refugees ”. 22 In particular, we are interested in the annual stock of refugees for each country of residence, i. e. how many people with refugees status have left their home country each year. We focus on these numbers as they appear to be the most comparable across time and countries. However, this is likely to capture only the tip of the iceberg in some cases. The number of IDPs is extremely high in some instances but cannot be captured with the same level of conﬁdence as refugees generally. 23 Cross-country data about conﬂict is provided by the UCDP / PRIO. As for the index of country-level economic activity, we use again information provided by the Penn World Table and World Bank databases. As mentioned above, our aim is to explore the dynamics of refugees during conﬂicts. In other words, we attempt to answer several questions.

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Input: required to purchase other basic staple foods such as salt and vegetables. Given that the WFP provisions are the only reliable rations that refugees receive, we approximate a cash transfer of 450 taka per week to at least double potential weekly consumption. Relative to the wealth refugees possess, 450 taka per week is likewise sizeable: average baseline savings is 195 taka, with the median refugee reporting zero taka in savings. Average baseline borrowing (typically in the form of store credit) is 1, 600 taka, with a median of 600 taka. Refugees have no economically meaningful assets that may be more common among the rural poor, such as land or cattle, given the unanticipated displacement which forced them from their homes. Relative to other employment opportunities, average reported pay is 300 taka per day for less than three days. The monthly cash transfer is therefore more than double what a refugee might expect from alternative employment if he or she is fortunate enough to secure a job. 4 Data Collection and Survey Instruments Timeline and survey instruments We collected data via a baseline, commencing in November 2019, and endline survey, commencing in February 2020, as well as seven midline surveys conducted prior to payment disbursal each week. These weekly surveys collected a small subset of well-being outcomes.

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Input: 5 does not have migration or geographic identifiers. The SILC contains geographic identifying variables, (at the NUTS1 level) but still lacks migration variables. The data set this study uses is the Labor Force Survey (LFS) since there is an adequate availability of both migration and geographic variables. The LFS is representative at the NUTS2 level which corresponds to 26 regions in Turkey. One caveat is that income in the LFS refers to only wage income from employment, 9 and is an insufficient measure of income that should be used for welfare measurement. For example, important sources of income such as social assistance, asset liquidation, or remittances are missing. Therefore, income in the LFS is imputed with a few assumptions using information from the SILC. The NUTS1 spatial effects of the SILC are a good proxy for NUTS2 welfare dynamics in the LFS which increases the accuracy of the imputation model. However, since the original sample frame of the LFS does not account for the recent influx of foreign migrants in Turkey, the labor market characteristics of recent migrants might not be representative of the actual SUTP population. Therefore, results of the imputation could be interpreted as upper bound estimates for recent migrants. More details of survey techniques used to complete this exercise are available in the Annex.

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Input: Produced by the Research Support Team Abstract The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. Policy Research Working Paper 6832 This paper presents findings from the impact evaluation of the Economic Empowerment of Adolescent Girls and Young Women (EPAG) project in Liberia. The EPAG project was launched by the Liberian Ministry of Gender and Development in 2009 with the goal of increasing the employment and income of 2, 500 young Liberian women by providing livelihood and life skills training and facilitating their transition to productive work. The analysis in this paper is based on data collected during two rounds of quantitative surveys in 2010 and 2011, the second of which was conducted six months after the classroom-based phase of the training program ended. Usage context: background mention, primary mention, supporting mention.

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Input: more than five consecutive years—increased over time, accounting for 40 percent of all refugees in 2021 (World Bank, 2023). In Ethiopia, 95 percent of all refugees live in a protracted situation, according to SESRE data. 11 According to UNHCR mid-2022 statistics, South Sundanese, Somali and Eritrean refugees constitute 46, 29 and 18 percent of the total refugee populations in Ethiopia. (https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/download/?url=2bxU2f) 12 https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/insights/explainers/children-born-into-refugee-life.html Sociodemographic Profile 10 53% 30% 5% 12% South Sudanese Somali Eritrean Addis Refugees Figure 2.1: Refugees by survey domain Source: World Bank Staff based on SESRE 2023. 68% 62% 63% 88% 31% 38% 32% 11% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Percent Eritrean Somali South Sudanese Addis Refugees Country of origin Ethiopia Other Figure 2.2: Country of birth Source: World Bank Staff based on SESRE 2023. Refugees fled from their country of birth mainly due to conflict and violence. Almost all South Sudanese refugees, or 99 percent, left their country because of conflict and violence, as did 91 percent of Somalis, and 73 percent of Eritrean refugees. On the other hand, OCP13 refugees came to Ethiopia with the hope of going to a Western country (35 percent), to escape from conflict and

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Input: 10 Last, specific adjustments are made in the case of Germany and the Republic of Korea. For Germany, bilateral data are available only by nationality. However, these data fail to take adequate account of the large number of ethnic Germans who arrived from other countries between 1944 and 1950 (mainly expellees) and those who arrived after1950 (mainly resettlers). Material from the German 2005 micro-census was therefore used to supplement the data for Germany (see appendix 3). In the case of Korea, data by nationality are readily available for each census round. However, these data fail to account for the large numbers of migrants from the People ‘ s Democratic Republic of Korea living in the Republic of Korea. Since the United Nations Trends in International Migrant Stock details the total migrant stock in the Republic of Korea by the country of birth definition and because citizenship is rarely granted to people from outside, it is simply assumed that the nationality data were comparable to the foreign-born definition. The nationality total was then subtracted from the UN total and the remaining migrants were assigned to the People ‘ s Democratic Republic of Korea. Usage context: primary mention, background mention, supporting mention.

United Nations Trends in International Migrant Stock

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Input: percent for refugees and 57 percent for hosts if you include all available to work regardless of whether they are searching (relaxed unemployment). The remaining 57 percent of refugees are inactive, and just over half are currently in school, leaving 23 percent of refugees neither working nor studying, compared to 20 percent of hosts. In-camp refugees have high unemployment rates relative to hosts. Figure 3.2 shows that only 25 percent of in-camp refugees performed paid work in the week before the survey, compared to 48 percent for hosts. At the household level, only 54 percent of refugee households have any workers, relative to 86 percent for hosts. The strict unemployment rate is 21 percent for refugees and 7 percent for hosts, while the relaxed unemployment rate is significantly higher at 43 percent for refugees and 15 percent for hosts. Across camp domains, Eritreans have the highest rate of relaxed unemployment at 55 percent, while it is 45 percent and 40 percent for Somalis and South Sudanese, respectively. South Sudanese have the highest rates of inactive workers remaining in school, reflecting that they have a younger population and that more young adults stay in school (mainly primary) after age 15.40 During

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Input: project had to meet a basic minimum literacy level in order to qualify for admission to the program; whereas only half of the 15-29-year-old female respondents to the nationally-representative Core Welfare Indicators Questionnaire (CWIQ) survey report that they can read and write (LISGIS 2007). Fewer than two percent of the girls in the EPAG study responded that they had no education, which is much lower than in the CWIQ survey. Second, the majority of adolescent girls and young women in Liberia reside in rural areas, whereas the survey participants were residing in urban and peri-urban areas, where access to basic social services may be much more improved. Consequently, the results are not representative of adolescent girls and young women in Liberia overall. The results are neither indicative of the average Liberian girl and young woman; nor are they indicative of the average Liberian girl or young woman in the project communities. They are only indicative of the average girl and young woman who are part of the EPAG project. Finally, many of the variables that we examine in this study are measures of self-assessed levels of satisfaction or belief. These are entirely subjective variables, and are subject to significant measurement error. There is considerable evidence that the wording of these questions can affect the answers given, as can the order in which the questions are asked.

Core Welfare Indicators Questionnaire
CWIQ survey

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Input: Table 1 provides descriptive statistics for the years 2011 and 2014. 18 Labor force participation is very low in Turkey, around 54 percent of the working-age population in 2011, though it has been rising. The reason is that female labor force participation is particularly low at about one-third. The majority of employment is private sector, around one-third of the working-age population, compared to 6 percent employed in the public sector. There are a large number of unpaid workers (7 percent) and unemployment is at 5 percent of the working-age population, an unemployment rate of about 10 percent. School attendance has been rising over the period, from 12 to 16 percent of the working-age population, and the fraction retired has been steady at about 5 percent. Correspondingly, educational attainment has been rising though still 13 percent of the working-age population has no formal education, 57 percent at least completed primary education but not high school, and high school completion has risen from 30 to 34 percent. 17 Of those who have an irregular workplace 60 percent are agricultural workers, 14 percent work in construction, 7 percent in transportation and 5 percent in retail and in manufacturing each, and 3 percent as household employees. 18 Note that in 2014 new regulations for the Household LFS were carried out within the framework of European Union criteria. Consequently, statistics are not necessarily entirely comparable across years. Since we do not use aggregate time-series variation for identification this does not affect our empirical strategy, see Section 3. For those interested, the Turkish Statistical Institute provides consistent time-series on their website.

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Input: in Bangladesh). The data set we use does not cover the 5. 1 million Palestinian refugees who are under the man- date of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UN- RWA). The deﬁnition of Palestinian refugees in international law is distinct from other refugees. Palestinian refugees are people “ whose normal place of residence was Mandatory Palestine be- tween June 1946 and May 1948, who lost both their homes and means of livelihood as a result of the 1948 Arab-Israeli conﬂict ”. Importantly, their patrilineal descendants are also considered refugees regardless of citizenship (UNRWA 2009). For the purpose of the analysis, we do not include Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), who are deﬁned as “ persons who have been forced or obliged to ﬂee or leave their home or place of habitual residence, in particular as a result of or in order to avoid the effects of armed conﬂict, situations of generalized violence, violations of human rights or natural or human-made disas- ters, and who have not crossed an internationally recognized border ” (United Nations 2004). The categories “ returnees ”, “ Stateless ”, and “ Others of concern ” are also not included.

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Input: 4 household displacement and the destruction of household dwellings during the violent events. We are also able to measure conflict intensity across time – including peaks of violence at various stages of the conflict – at the district level from event data on violence intensity during the conflict in Timor Leste. We focus on primary school effects because only a small percentage of the Timorese population attended secondary school. Our results show mixed evidence for the impact of violent conflict on educational outcomes. Mirroring some of the findings of Bellows and Miguel (2006) and others, we find evidence for a rapid recovery of the education sector in Timor Leste, and of educational outcomes, particularly for girls. However, in line with emerging results in the micro-level literature, we find that the 1999 wave of violence in Timor Leste – as well as peaks of violence in the 1970s and 1980s – resulted in negative effects on primary school attendance and attainment. This effect is particularly strong for boys. We attribute the first result to a process of educational catch-up among girls in Timor Leste that started before the conflict and continued despite the conflict. Usage context: background mention, primary mention, supporting mention.

event data on violence intensity during the conflict

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Input: Figure 19: Trust and Conﬂict in the Cross Section The problem with a lack of trust and strong group identities is that they penetrate and pervert formal institutions. The ethnic politics analyzed by Burgess et al. (2015) is just one example. Shayo and Zussman (2011), for example, use data from Israeli small claims courts to show that Arab and Jewish judges displayed signiﬁcant judicial ingroup bias. Furthermore, this bias is strongly associated with terrorism intensity in the vicinity of the court in the year preceding the ruling. Conﬁdence-building is also a crucial ingredient for the establishment of a fertile investment climate, which in turn is a trigger of economic development post conﬂict. This is the core message of the World Bank Report by Mills and Fan (2006). An important role of increasing trust doubtlessly goes to the media. It has been shown, for example, that hate radio in Rwanda played a critical role in the extent of ethnic violence during the genocide. 59 Other research has shown that media coverage can have strong eﬀects on political preferences more generally. 60 Perhaps the most direct proof of the crucial role played by the media in the post-conﬂict situation comes from DellaVigna et al. (2014). The authors exploit variation in radio reception of na- tionalistic Serbian radio in border regions in Croatia. Usage context: supporting mention, primary mention, background mention.

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Input: Columns 2, 3, and 4 show that age, school attendance, and employment status at baseline are all correlated with survey attrition. To further investigate whether these characteristics lead to differential attrition between the treatment and control groups, we interact treatment with particular characteristics at baseline. Columns 5 and 6 show that, conditional on being in the control group, the most likely predictor of attrition is having a child. By itself, being a mother does not predict attrition, but when interacted with treatment, we see that control group mothers are more likely to have dropped out of the panel than their treated counterparts. Employment at baseline, while positively correlated with attrition, does not differentially affect treated and untreated individuals. Because the differential attrition between treatment and control groups may bias our results, we use Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) as outlined in Wooldridge (2002) to adjust the estimates of our key outcomes, using the inverse probability of inclusion in the panel as a probability weight. As a first step, we use the probit model in Column (6) of Table 10 to regress the likelihood of being observed twice on baseline individual characteristics, including those likely to affect attrition, such as employment and parental status. In the second step, we use the inverse of the predicted values from that probit model as probability weights to redo the difference-in-difference regressions for our key outcomes of interest. This method gives more weight to the individuals with the highest chance of attrition, giving them more influence on the estimate of the impact than those with a low probability of attrition. The results are reported in Table 11. The results show a high degree of similarity between the original (unadjusted) and the adjusted estimates. Across all outcomes, the point estimates and standard errors vary only slightly. 27 Of these 305 cases, nine are dropped from the attrition analysis because the household head was not interviewed at baseline, hence the household level control variables are not available. 23

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Input:
7 Gibson and Kim (2012) use a HCES with direct measures of consumption from food stocks and find an error of up to 300 KCal per person per day from ignoring destocking of one major calorie-source (rice) that is subject to bulk buying and storage.

these reports when made by people who never transact in metric units. A typical HCES consumption

Once the food reported in an HCES is converted into calories, the household's calorie intake is compared

While the potential sources of mismeasurement in HCES are numerous, this study systematically

using a survey experiment conducted in Tanzania. There were a total of eight alternate designs, which

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Input: 9 this oversubscribed list. Selection into the training group was based on a “ vulnerability score ” that gave priority to younger, female and unemployed individuals. Despite this approach, intake was “ fuzzy ”- participants were ordered by their vulnerability score, with the most vulnerable entering up until capacity. In some intakes, individuals with comparatively high scores were not taken into the program. In others, individuals with comparatively low scores were included. We construct our treatment and control groups from these intake decisions. Data were collected from members of the host and refugee communities in each country. 4 In both Jordan and Lebanon, the intervention was implemented on a rolling basis. As soon as one training cycle was completed, another would begin. Data were collected in three waves during each training cycle. First, during an “ outreach ” phase, where data were collected in order to assign treatment status. Second, at “ baseline ”, which occurred before the training had begun but after treatment assignment was known. Third, data were collected at “ endline ”, immediately following the end of the training. Data collection for those assigned to the treatment and control followed the same pattern. 5 Outreach and baseline data collection took place less than a week apart and were collected between July 2018 and September 2019.

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Input:
This rate decreases as we move away from mining areas (figure 12a and 12b). Not only are the rates higher in the first two types of communes mentioned, but the rates in those communes also increased faster from 1998 to 2009, the two years being the years of the last two General Population and Housing Censuses in Mali.

|Figure 12a Net primary enrollment (%)|Figure 12b Net primary enrollment (%) mining
communes|
|---|---|
|
|
|
|_Source:_RGPH (General Population and Housing Census) 1998 and 2009.|_Source:_RGPH (General Population and Housing Census) 1998 and 2009.|

5 We could not use the 1987 census data because communes were not created at that time.

RGPH (General Population and Housing Census)

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Input:
Population Data Analysis – September 2022

Overview

As of the end of September 2022, Southern Africa hosts around **8.6 million persons of concern (PoCs) to UNHCR** .
This includes 1.1 million refugees and asylum-seekers and 6.9 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), as well as
others of concern, refugee returnees and IDP returnees. **The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) represents 77**

**per cent of the regional data.**

Refugees, Asylum-Seekers and Others of concern

The region hosts **785,000 refugees, 278,000**

**asylum-seekers** **and** **36,000** **others** **of**

**concern** . Among those 1.1 million PoCs, 74 per
cent of them are from the countries outside of
the Southern Africa region. [1] The top five
countries of origin are Central African Republic
(243,000), Rwanda (242,000), DRC (228,000),
Burundi (84,000) and Ethiopia (61,000).

Internally Displaced Persons
(IDPs)

In Southern Africa, there are **6.9 million**

**internally displaced persons (IDPs)** . Most of
them are conflict-induced, 6.4 million, but there
are also natural disaster-induced IDPs, 0.5
million. The data on IDPs are reported in DRC,
Congo, Mozambique and Zimbabwe (see
Figure 1).

Durable Solutions

Figure 1. Number of IDPs in RBSA by Cause as of 30 September 2022

---
[1] The Southern Africa region refers to the 16 countries covered by the Regional Bureau for Southern Africa of UNHCR including Angola,

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Input:
**6.2 Baseline and Endline Survey Design**

The 2024 survey data constitute the project's baseline. They were collected using computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI) on Android tablets, with GPS coordinates recorded for each interview to enable geographic analysis. The 2024 survey data cover consumption expenditure, agricultural production, access to markets, and child schooling outcomes, structured to mirror the indicators in the results framework. A pre-analysis plan was registered with the AEA RCT Registry prior to data collection to protect against specification searching in the impact evaluation.

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Input: We use the sum of conflict events occurring in the historic homeland of ethnic group e in the previous year t − 1, denoted as Conflictet − 1, and we use the mean distance between the historic homeland of ethnic group e and the border of country d to predict the number of refugees of a certain ethnic group e moving from country o to d at time t. 22 In order to be consistent with EPR-ER data construction, we restrict our analysis to all origin – destination country pairs that are at a maximum distance ≤ 950 km from each other. Predicted numbers of refugees are then transformed into predicted shares for the three largest groups to follow the logic used by the EPR-ER dataset. We then plug in these predicted shares in the following way: X \PredictedRefcet = Refocdt ∗ \Shareodet. (6) The predicted shares of refugees per camp c are then used to compute (as documented above) refugee diversity indices to be used as instrumental variables. The first-stage equations corresponding to the 2SLS-equivalent of Equation 1 can be expressed as 20We conduct a robustness check on Equation 5, replacing the dyadic origin – destination fixed effects with separate origin and destination fixed effects (Section 5. 4). 21More information on LEDA can be found in Appendix A. 1. 22The construction of the IV follows a long tradition in using the gravity model to predict bilateral migration flows (Ravenstein, 1985, 1989; Crozet, 2004; Mayda, 2010; Garcia et al., 2015; Beine et al., 2016). In our analysis, a major difference is that we have an additional dimension: the ethnic group e. 20

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Input: 5 (UNHCR, 2014), developing countries hosted 10. 1 million refugees or 86 percent of the world ’ s refugees. Contrary to what has been sometimes claimed in popular media, refugees are not “ invading ” the higher ‐ income countries. Actually, SSA has been hosting more refugees than sending them since 1990. The divergence of trends occurring in 2005 is certainly related to large inflows of refugees from North Africa and the Middle East. The second peak in 2011 corresponds to the uprisings that spread across several Arab countries (Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia and Yemen), and the recent one in 2013 to the large outflows of refugees from Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Figure 2. Refugees and Internally Displaced People in SSA, 1990 ‐ 2013 Note: Refugee data are from the UNHCR statistical population online dataset, accessed in September 2014. Refugee data from 2007 to 2013 include people in refugee ‐ like situations (see note, Figure 1). Due to changes in classification and estimation methodology in a number of countries, 2007 figures are not fully comparable with pre ‐ 2007 figures (see also footnote 1). Gathering data on internally displaced people is much more challenging since most existing data on IDPs are incomplete or unreliable. Usage context: background mention, supporting mention, primary mention.

UNHCR statistical population online dataset

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Input: refugees’ social integration (ReDSS, 2018). Box 7.1: Socio-political tensions in the Gambella Region Figure 7.3: Host response to “Refugees are good people” by gender Source: World Bank Staff based on SESRE 2023. Figure 7.4: Host response to “Would you feel comfortable having a refugee as a neighbor?” by gender Source: World Bank Staff based on SESRE 2023. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Eritrean Somali South Sudanese Addis Ababa Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree Percent Markets and Opportunities 66 Most hosts do not think they have experienced adverse effects from refugees. However, a sizeable minority are concerned about the effects on employment, inflation, security, and deforestation in their communities, with significant differences across domains. The most consistent perceived effects are economic competition and price increases. Across domains, 29 to 39 percent of hosts think they have experienced either wage or employment competition due to refugees.50 Beliefs that refugees have increased prices are especially prevalent in the Eritrea and Addis Ababa domains (70 and 81 percent, respectively), possibly reflecting concerns over housing costs in Addis Ababa. Other studies have shed light on this phenomenon in more detail.

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Input: 5 narrative around the regressions and aims to explain why not more people migrate when benefits of doing so are so high. 2. The Setting: Tanzania and Kagera, 1994-2004 In the last decade, Tanzania has experienced a period of relatively rapid growth, attributed to liberalization, a renewed trade orientation, a stable political context, and a relatively positive business climate to boost economic performance. Real GDP growth was of the order of 4. 2 % per year between 1994 and 2004, while annual population growth was around 3. 2 % in the same period (URT, 2004). There is also evidence that growth had accelerated in the last few years compared to the 1990s. However, this growth has not been sufficiently broad-based to result in rapid poverty reduction. On the basis of the available evidence, poverty rates have declined only slightly and most of the poverty reduction progress has been made in urban areas. According to the Household Budget Survey (HBS), between 1991 and 2000 / 01, poverty declined from 39 percent to 36 percent in mainland Tanzania. The decline in poverty was steep in Dar es Salaam (from 28 % to 18 %) but minimal in rural Tanzania (from 41 % to 39 %). Usage context: primary mention, supporting mention, background mention.

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Input: Those who had moved out of the Kagera Region by 2004 experienced consumption growth that was 10 times higher compared to those who remained in their original community. These averages translate into very different poverty dynamics patterns for the physically mobile and immobile. For those who stayed in the community, poverty rates drop by about 4 percentage points over these 13 years. For those who moved elsewhere within the region, poverty rates drop by about 12 percentage points, and for those who moved out of the region, they drop by 23 percentage points. Had we not tracked and interviewed people who moved out of the community – a practice found in many panel surveys – we would have seriously underestimated the extent to which poverty has gone down over the past 13 years in the Kagera Region; we would have reported poverty reduction at about half of its true value. Clemens and Pritchett (2007) raise similar concerns in the context of income growth and international migration. In addition, the data would omit the part of the population with a high information content on pathways out of poverty. Still, these statistics are not evidence that moving out of the community leads to higher income growth. As noted above, we cannot observe the counterfactual: What would income growth have been for migrants had they not migrated? We exploit some unique features of these data to address concerns about unobserved heterogeneity. First, individual fixed effects regressions for movers and stayers produce a difference-in-difference estimation of the impact of physical movement, controlling for any fixed individual factors that affect consumption. Second, we can control for initial household fixed effects in the growth rate of consumption since we observe baseline households in which some individuals migrate Usage context: primary mention, supporting mention, background mention.

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Input: 13 Proposition 7 State-Level Effects of Population Size: The risk of civil war events at a location varies with the size of the population of the country to which the location belongs, controlling for the local effects. 3 Research Design 3. 1 Unit of Analysis To distinguish between the different theoretical statements regarding how population sizes, population concentrations and locations relate to risk of conflict, we need to investigate exactly where conflicts occur. We have created a dataset using a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) program which converted large territories into smaller portions of 8. 6 km x 8. 6 km, totaling 74 square kilometers. Each of these grid squares are our units of observation (we will refer to them as squares). This approach is similar to that of Buhaug & Rød (2006), with two important differences. First, their squares are much larger (100x100km). Second, they code the dependent variable considerably more crudely than is done in the ACLED dataset described below. Buhaug & Rød (2006) use the `scope'and `location'variables in the Uppsala / PRIO dataset. Usage context: background mention, primary mention, supporting mention.

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Input: ministries to achieve better outcomes for refugees and their hosts. ◆ Improve the coverage, accuracy, reliability, quality, and comparability of data to provide the analytical underpinning for policy decisions. Executive Summary 1 C onflict, political unrest, environmental disruption, and economic instability has forcibly displaced millions of people globally (Ferris, 2010; Black, 2001). Over the last decade, the number of forcibly displaced persons has continuously increased. In mid-2023, there were 36.4 million refugees worldwide (UNHCR, 2023d). As development reduces global poverty, extreme poverty is increasingly concentrated among vulnerable groups; refugees are among these vulnerable groups (World Bank, 2017). Therefore, the plight of the forcibly displaced poses significant challenges to broad development efforts to eradicate extreme poverty and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Ethiopia has a long history of hosting refugees and has one of the largest refugee populations in Africa. The refugee situation in Ethiopia is characterized by both complex humanitarian emergencies and protracted refugee status. Forced displacement is a pressing issue in the country, a result of conflict, drought, flood, economic instability, and political instability in neighboring countries (Martin, 2010; UNHCR, 2020d; IPCC, 2019). As of year-end 2023, more than 922,000 refugees and asylum seekers 1. Introduction 0 200,000

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Input: Maternal depression was measured by the Self-Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ-20), which has previously been used in Pakistan and has been found to be valid and reliable for screening for depressive disorders in rural Pakistan (Husain et al., 2006). The SRQ-20 contains 20 yes / no questions, with higher scores indicating higher levels of depression, and was found to have a high internal consistency reliability, with a Cronbach ’ s alpha of. 89 in this sample. Anxiety. Maternal anxiety was assessed using the General Anxiety Disorder 7-item questionnaire (GAD-7). This 7-item questionnaire has been found to be valid in the Gilgit province of Pakistan (Ahmad et al., 2017) and has subsequently been used in other assessments of anxiety in Pakistan (Yasmin et al., 2021). The GAD-7 was found to have a high internal consistency reliability, with a Cronbach ’ s alpha of. 80 in this sample. Parenting Stress. Parenting stress was measured using an adapted version of the Parental Stress Scale (PSS), which has previously been validated in Urdu in Punjab (Bilal et al., 2021). The adapted version used in this survey was designed by Ugarte et al., 2024 for Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh. Usage context: supporting mention, primary mention, background mention.

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Input: -0.000* -0.001*** -0.001*** -0.000 0.000 -0.000 0.001 (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.001) Educ: < Primary - - - - - - - - Educ: Primary -0.028 0.058*** 0.127 -0.042* 0.077** -0.104 -0.172 0.121 (0.020) (0.021) (0.107) (0.022) (0.032) (0.069) (0.122) (0.361) Educ: Secondary 0.115*** 0.506*** 0.700*** -0.045 0.460*** -0.200** 0.098 0.849*** (0.031) (0.046) (0.100) (0.045) (0.107) (0.080) (0.212) (0.311) Educ: Post-sec 0.231*** 0.716*** 0.812*** 0.004 0.493*** -0.073 0.222 0.528** (0.024) (0.037) (0.078) (0.117) (0.121) (0.149) (0.367) (0.232) Years in Ethiopia 0.009*** 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.006 (0.003) (0.002) (0.004) (0.012) (0.015) Work outside camp 0.352**

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Input: .009*** 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.006 (0.003) (0.002) (0.004) (0.012) (0.015) Work outside camp 0.352*** (0.128) Region fixed effects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Restrict to workers outside camp Yes N 3321 1626 494 3,069 830 975 238 73 Source: World Bank Staff based on SESRE 2023. Note: Columns 2 and 5-6 are restricted to working respondents. Columns 3 and 7-8 are restricted to employees. High-skill occupations include managers, professionals, and associate professionals. Ln Earnings is the log of monthly earnings winsorized at the 1st and 99th percentiles. All other models are linear probability models. Standard errors clustered at the EA level. * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01 Annexes

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Input: global-trends-report-2021.html. UNHCR. (2022c). Ethiopia Country Refugee Response Plan (ECRRP) Jan Dec 2022. https://data.unhcr.org/en/documents/ details/94099 UNHCR. (2022d). Serdo Refugee Camp Profile April 2022. https://data.unhcr.org/fr/documents/details/92436 UNHCR. (2022e). “Global Report 2021.” http://reporting.unhcr.org/globalreport2021/pdf. 81 UNHCR. (2023). Ethiopia Global Refugee Forum Pledge Progress Report. UNHCR. (2023a). Addis Ababa Quarterly Urban Factsheet, April 2023. UNHCR. (2023b). UNHCR Resettlement Handbook. UNHCR. (2023c). Culture, Context and Mental Health and Psychological Well-being of Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons from South Sudan. UNHCR. (2023d). Mid-year Trends. Geneva. https://www.unhcr.org/mid-year-trends-report-2023 UNHCR. (2023e). Ethiopia Country Refugee Response Plan 2023. https://reporting.unhcr.org/ethiopia-country-refugee- response-plan-summary UNHCR. (2024). Global Refugee Forum 2023 Pledges. https://globalcompactrefugees.org/pledges-contributions UNHCR. (2024a). Press Release (Ethiopia Launches Inclusive ID System for Refugees, Boosts Access to National Services). https://www.unhcr.org/africa/news/press-releases/ethiopia-launches-inclusive-id-system-refugees-boosts-access- national-services UNHCR, and World Bank Group. (2020). Understanding the Socioeconomic Conditions of Refugees in Kenya Volume A: Kalobeyei Settlement. Results from the 2018 Kalobeyei Socioeconomic Survey. Washington, D.C. UNICEF. (2018). Situation and Access to Services of Persons with Disabilities in Addis Ababa. Briefing Note. UNICEF. (2019). Birth Registration for Every Child by 2030: Are WE on Track? New York. UNICEF. (2021). Education in South Sudan. Briefing Note. Vemuru, V., Sarkar, A., and Woodhouse, A.

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Input: . (2019). Birth Registration for Every Child by 2030: Are WE on Track? New York. UNICEF. (2021). Education in South Sudan. Briefing Note. Vemuru, V., Sarkar, A., and Woodhouse, A.F. (2020). Impact of Refugees on Hosting Communities in Ethiopia: A Social Analysis. World

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To further control for geological and agro-ecological characteristics at the community level, elevation figures were included, taken from the GLOBE 1 kilometer elevation database (GLOBE Task Team et al. 1999). Elevation differences were also incorporated as a measure of terrain roughness. These were computed using the SRTM3 data (Jarvis et al. 2006) by subtracting the minimum elevation in a 1 kilometer grid from the maximum elevation in the 1 kilometer grid. Finally, urban/rural and regional indicator variables help capture unobserved (time invariant) location specific characteristics related to the urban and rural livelihood systems as well as those related to regional variation in the agro-ecological, economic and political environment. Year dummies were included to control for the survey year.

Given the focus here on riverine and coastal floods and to better pinpoint the locations that actually experienced riverine or coastal floods, the DFO flood maps were overlaid with the location of the rivers taken from the Hydroshed project (Lehner et al., 2008). Only the major rivers were mapped as these will have sufficiently large catchment areas exposing the downstream areas they traverse to (non-localized) flooding. Riverine and coastal flood bands were then derived by considering DFO flooded areas within 2, 5 and 8 meters elevation difference from the closest point on the major river or the coast using a Digital Elevation Model from GLOBE (GloBe Task team, 1999).

To reflect access to public services, indicator variables are included that take the value of one if clean water [32], sanitary latrines, [33] or electricity are present in the community, and zero otherwise. To proxy a household's integration in the overall economy, the community data were further augmented with the distance of the centroid of the community (in meters) to the nearest part of the nearest primary or secondary road, as designated in the VMAP0 dataset (NIMA 1997). These measures were computed that using Arc View 3.2. In addition, the estimated travel time to the nearest town or city of at least

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Input:
the nearest part of the nearest primary or secondary road, as designated in the VMAP0 dataset (NIMA 1997). These measures were computed that using Arc View 3.2. In addition, the estimated travel time to the nearest town or city of at least 25,000 people, the nearest city of at least 100,000 people, and the nearest city of at least 500,000 people were included. The travel times were computed in Arc View from a friction grid that assigned differing travel times to various classes of roads, urban areas, water bodies, off-road, and crossing international boundaries. [34]

The expenditure data are expressed in January 2002 prices using the CPI provided by the Government Statistical Office. They are also corrected each year for regional and rural/urban differences across the 8 regions.

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Input: 9 Visits (JD-HV). ProGres records demographic information of each individual refugee and their household at the time of registration with UNHCR including the relationship of each household member with the principal applicant. In this paper, we refer to the self-identified principal applicant as the household head – the term used in the poverty research literature. Self-identification is commonly used as a means of identifying the household head in household surveys of income, consumption and expenditure surveys which are used to estimate poverty rates (see Hanmer et al, (2020)). Home visits began at the same time as the UNHCR cash assistance program was launched. The program aimed to assist vulnerable Syrian households to meet their basic needs. During the home visits, UNHCR determined whether a household met the criteria to qualify for assistance, considering economic poverty and the presence of members in the household requiring protection. Since 2013, these visits have been made to every registered Syrian refugee household in Jordan outside the camps (UNHCR, 2014). At registration, each household is assigned a unique registration number that serves to cross- reference the initial registration data with Home Visits data. Home Visits data are collected for about one-third of the registered households. Usage context: supporting mention, background mention, primary mention.

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Input: Religious School Enrollment in Pakistan A Look at the Data Tahir Andrabi1 Pomona College Jishnu Das The World Bank Asim Ijaz Khwaja Harvard University Tristan Zajonc Harvard University Abstract Bold assertions have been made in policy reports and popular articles on the high and increasing enrollment in Pakistani religious schools, commonly known as madrassas. Given the importance placed on the subject by policy makers in Pakistan and those internationally, it is troubling that none of the reports and articles reviewed based their analysis on publicly available data or established statistical methodologies. This paper uses published data sources and a census of schooling choice to show that existing estimates are inflated by an order of magnitude. Madrassas account for less than 1 percent of all enrollment in the country and there is no evidence of a dramatic increase in recent years. The educational landscape in Pakistan has changed substantially in the last decade, but this is due to an explosion of private schools, an important fact that has been left out of the debate on Pakistani education. Moreover, when we look at school choice, we find that no one explanation fits the data. Usage context: supporting mention, primary mention, background mention.

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