Input:
social insurance. Second, the statistical definition of an employed person is wider than just being registered with the Social Insurance Institution (Zakład Ubezpieczeń Społecznych, ZUS) on a certain day [3] . Third, some Ukrainians work in the shadow economy. The number of workers with Ukrainian citizenship and social insurance increased from only 33 thousand at the end of 2013 to 627 thousand at the end of 2021 – just before the refugee influx. Some of this increase reflects the transitioning of Ukrainians to more regular work arrangements and securing work permits. Following February 2022, the numbers further increased with the arrival of Ukrainian refugees. The data for mid-2024 shows 771 thousand workers with Ukrainian citizenship registered for social insurance, including 247 thousand refugees. Ukrainian refugees in Poland have been given PESEL UKR numbers

- a version of an ID number assigned to
every Polish national – which made high quality data on their demographics easily available, though they may still be missing from most of the statistics compiled by the Polish statistical office.

20% 19% Men Women 1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 7% 8% 4% 4% 9% 12% 7%

#### **1.2 Households characteristics**

**The structure of the Ukrainian**

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NAVIGATING HEALTH AND WELL-BEING CHALLENGES FOR REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE

# Recommendations

Host countries and communities have made commendable and continuous efforts to support refugees in accessing essential health and MHPSS services. While most respondents reported adequate access, barriers to services changed and increased for some refugees. These changes do not take the same form for all refugees, and intersectional factors related to gender, age, disability, and chronic illness continue to impact the experiences and needs of refugees from Ukraine in this regard. The recommendations below highlight key priorities and actions for governments and RRP partners to address these challenges and enhance refugees’ access to care in host countries.

These actions aim to support governments and local communities in strengthening health and MHPSS systems in areas impacted by refugee arrivals and advancing the integration of refugees into national systems. Achieving these goals will require long-term planning and sustained funding commitments.

9. [Integraton of migrant and refugee data in health informaton systems in Europe: advancing evidence, policy and practce](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanepe.2023.100744)

**28**

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Input:
treatment distance of 50 km, we no longer see a significant effect. In panel Ab, the results are

replicated using a spatial lag model, meaning that we allow for nonlinear effects with distance.

In reality, it seems like the electricity rate is much higher before a mine (dashed line) than with

an active mine (the blue line). However, when the results are decomposed by migrant status in

panel Ac of figure A1 (Annex) we find that migrants are driving the lower electricity rate. In

fact, among nonmigrants, the electricity rate is higher 0–10 km from an active mine, although

it is slightly lower 10–20 km away. [14]

**6.3 Distributional effects on wealth and inequality**

Table 9 presents the effects of mining on asset wealth and on asset wealth inequality. Wealth

data are available in the form of a wealth index, but only for the two last DHS surveys.

Following Fenske (2015) and Flatø and Kotsadam (2014), we calculate inequality by means of

a Gini coefficient (recoding the wealth variable to be positive only, and using the command

13 It is also possible that mining companies compete with households for electricity if supply cannot be increased
in the short run.

---
[14] In panels Ba, Bb, and Bc of Appendix figure A1, we analyze access to radio. We learn that access to

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Input:
## Introduction

##### Nearly two years after the beginning of the full-scale war in Ukraine, the positive impact of the refugees on the Polish economy becomes clearly visible.

On their arrival, the impact of refugees on the economy primarily manifested through higher consumption, that was financed mainly by increased governmental spending, civil society, international organisations, and savings brought from Ukraine. While these added to a significant initial increase in consumption, multiple sources of financing and a lack of aggregated data (particularly on general government expenses) make its magnitude uncertain. Although in the short term it stimulated the economy, drawing just on savings was not sustainable. Over time, however, refugees started to work as employees and entrepreneurs, adding not only to the demand, but also to the supply of the economy, contributing to its long-term growth. The focus of this report is this structural impact of refugees on the economy as consumers, employers, entrepreneurs, and taxpayers.

The beginning of the full-scale war in Ukraine resulted in a large inflow of refugees into Poland outlined in Chapter 1.
This cohort differs from the pre-2022 Ukrainian economic migrants, most notably in its demographic makeup which primarily comprises children and working age women.

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Input:
HIGH EMPLOYMENT RATES, BUT LOW WAGES: A POVERTY ASSESSMENT OF UKRAINIAN REFUGEES IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES

**SHARE OF POPULATION PAYING FOR RENTED HOUSING: HOSTS VS REFUGEES**

Share of hosts living in rented housing (2023) Share of refugees fully paying for rent (2024) Share of refugees partially paying for rent (2024) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Bulgaria Czechia Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Moldova Poland Romania Slovakia Region Source: Eurostat, survey data, SAG estimates

**HOUSING COST AS A SHARE OF HOUSEHOLD DISPOSABLE INCOME**

Refugees (2024) Hosts (2022) Bulgaria Czechia Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Moldova Poland Romania Slovakia Region Source: Eurostat, survey data, SAG estimates

**REFUGEE POVERTY RATES WITH AND WITHOUT CORRECTION FOR EXCESSIVE HOUSING COSTS**

Refugees (2024) Refugees with housing expense correction (2024) Hosts (2023) 65% 40% 52% 31% 46% 43% 37% Bulgaria Czechia Hungary Moldova Poland Romania Slovakia Estonia Latvia Lithuania Region Source: Eurostat, survey data, SAG estimates

**6**

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Input:
Skills-job mismatching also becomes evident when analyzing the current employment of refugees compared to their pre-war employment in Ukraine, as nearly 60% have transitioned to entirely different economic sectors.
This phenomenon is more pronounced among women, with 63% having shifted to roles outside their previous employment background, compared to 50% of men. One possible explanation for this discrepancy is the higher proportion of men employed in sectors like construction and IT prior to displacement. These fields often demand fewer country-specific qualifications, such as proficiency in the local language, thereby facilitating easier integration into similar roles in the host country.

**DISTRIBUTION OF WORKING AGE POPULATION BY**

**HIGHEST EDUCATION LEVEL ATTAINED**

Technical or Vocational Bachelor Master's Doctoral

**WAGE PREMIUMS FOR EDUCATION LEVEL GAINS: HOSTS**

**VERSUS REFUGEES, %**

Refugee eduction wage premium (mean, 2024) Bachelor's or above Hosts (2023) Refugees (2024) Source: Survey data, ILO 1% Host education wage premium (median, 2022) Technical or vocational Note: Wage premiums computed with lower secondary education as the baseline Source: Survey data, Eurostat, SAG estimates

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Input:
Employment continues to be closely associated with lower poverty rates, though ultimately, it’s the size of income that is generated by working household members that makes the biggest difference. Considering that the share of working-age refugees that are employed is nearing host population levels after rising further in 2024, attention should now turn to wages. Data on the latter, which was derived from household level indicators, demonstrates that refugees on average make two-thirds of what the local population does per hour of work. Low wage premiums for higher education levels and the fact that some 60% of current refugee employees have a background in an entirely different sector of the economy, suggest the presence of underemployment and skills mismatching. This assertion is corroborated by nearly 35% of employed refugees in the region reporting few available jobs with adequate pay, lack of positions that match their skills, or issues with getting their qualifications recognized. Moreover, almost the same percentage indicate lack of local language knowledge to be a problem, a well-acknowledged barrier to skilled employment.

**Based on the above findings it is recommended that:**

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Input:
##### **September/ October 2023 report**

###### Venezuela

**trafficking networks.** After bilateral

meeting between the Protection Cluster,

the WGTiP and the FSL Cluster, a focal

group was organized on October 10th.

A total of 7 participants from UN Agen
cies, AoRs, and local NGOs participated.

WG members actively participated by

sharing field experiences and proposing

recommendations to address challenges

raised during the discussion.

**VIII. Monthly Meetings of the**

**WGTiP**

**The WGTiP convenes monthly to**

**review its working plan and provide**

**a platform for members to discuss**

**trends and activities related to TiP. In**

**the last meeting, the WG collectively**

**decided to establish a Task Force to**

**draft a guide on security for orga-**

**nizations working with Victims of**

**Trafficking (VoT).** Additionally, members

have developed standardized training

and sensitization activities/workshops to

implement in communities on the topic of

TiP. These trainings will be beneficial to

other organizations addressing human

trafficking issues. In October’s monthly

meeting, the WG hosted the office of UN

Special Rapporteur for Trafficking in Per
sons. The meeting involved discussions

on potential collaboration with WG mem
bers and how the UN Rapporteur's office

can support advocacy efforts.

Member organizations also shared infor
mation on available services for victims

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Input:
_Note:_ Robust standard errors clustered at the DHS cluster level in parentheses. All regressions control for year and
district fixed effects, urban dummy, age, and years of education. Active is active status of mine in the survey year.

*** p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1. Results for women’s partners also available upon request. OLS = ordinary least
squares. The women and men samples have different sampling frames and therefore we are not analyzing these
results jointly.

Two further caveats should be noted: (i) with many variables tested, such evidence should not

be given too much weight, (ii) number of sampled men in the treatment category is quite small.

Out of 7,157 sampled med, only 484 men live close to active mines. A bigger treated sample

would provide more reliable results. [10]

**5.2 Child health**

We explore effects on child health, such as size at birth, infant mortality, anthropometrics, and

incidence of cough, diarrhea, and fever. Panel A and Panel B use different variable definitions

---
[10] Results for sampled women’s partners are similar.

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Input:
those people fell outside the definitions of population used by Statistics Poland (Główny Urząd Statystyczny, GUS, Poland’s statistical office). The National Bank of Poland estimated that between 2014 and 2018, there were approximately one to two million Ukrainian workers in Poland at a time (Strzelecki, Growiec and Wyszyński, 2022). According to the 2021 Polish National Census, one year before the outbreak of the full-scale war in Ukraine there were about one million Ukrainian citizens residing in Poland, almost all of them on a temporary basis.

After the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, Poland experienced a massive influx of refugees – with more than 27 million border crossings from Ukraine and more than 1.9 million applications for protection submitted by April 7, 2025 [1] . Not all of those people stayed in Poland. Many of them later returned to Ukraine or moved to other countries. By February 14, 2025, PESEL UKR [2] holders who remained in Poland stood at less than 1 million, while the border movement balance between Poland and Ukraine was slightly below 2 million.

---
[1] UNHCR data, https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine
[2] PESEL UKR is a version of Polish national ID number for Ukrainian citizens in connection with the armed conflict in the territory of that country.

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Input:
The escalatation of war 2022 in Ukraine caused a large inflow of refugees into Poland. While some refugees from Ukraine have since returned to Ukraine or gone further to Germany or other countries, in October 2023 close to 957 thousand remained in Poland (identified by active PESEL UKR numbers). They consist primarily of children and working aged women. Despite the forced nature of displacement, war trauma, and caregiving responsibilities, refugees from Ukraine very quickly entered the labour market as employees and entrepreneurs. The precise number of refugees from Ukraine working in Poland remains uncertain, with our estimates ranging from 225 to 350 thousand. The lower bound is the number of social security registrations and understates the actual figure, as some jobs may not require social contributions or remain in the informal sector. The higher bound is the product of employment rates from surveys of refugees from Ukraine, and their working age population from the active PESEL UKR database. By JulyAugust 2023 Ukrainian refugee households supported themselves, with 80% of their incomes coming from work. [49]

---
[49] Deloitte calculations based on Multi-Sector Needs Assessment Poland 2023 survey data provided by UNHCR.

active PESEL UKR database
PESEL UKR numbers

Multi-Sector Needs Assessment Poland 2023 survey data

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Input:
**Figure 1 Ghana’s annual gold production and world price of gold**

Ghana is the second-largest gold producer in Africa after South Africa, with gold production

averaging 77 tons per year (Gajigo, Mutambatsere, and Mdiaya 2012). In 2011, Ghana’s

mineral sector accounted for about 14 percent of total tax revenues and 5.5 percent of the gross

domestic product (GDP) (Bermúdez-Lugo 2011), as well as 44 percent of Ghanian exports

(Gajigo, Mutambatsere, and Mdiaya 2012). This makes the gold mining industry one of the

country’s most important industries, and an essential industry to study.

Similar to gold mining in other African countries (see Gajigo, Mutambatsere, and Mdiaya

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Input:
In conclusion, the protection incidents evidenced in the analysis partially overview the situation in both countries
where the data were collected. The number of protection incidents and victims is higher than what is represented
in this report for September 2022. In DRC, the new protection monitoring platform still needs to be fully deployed
countrywide, and efforts are underway to have data that will reflect the real situation. In Mozambique, the data
reported in this report concerns only one province, Cabo Delgado, where the protection monitoring is implemented.
Efforts are also underway to have functioning protection monitoring in the rest of the affected provinces.

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Input:
REGIONAL BUREAU FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA

###### **POPULATION OF CONCERN IN SOUTHERN AFRICA REGION**

30 September 2022

**PoCs IN SOUTHERN** **AFRICA REGION***

**521,512** **REF**

**41,283** **REF**

**13,762** **ASY**

**1,291** **ASY**

**5,526,022** **IDP**

**REF**

**ASY**

**OOC**

**RET**

**KEY FIGURES**

## **8,572,919**

Total Population of concern

###### **1,099,585**

Refugees, asylum-seekers, other
of concern & returnees**

**785,119**

**278,090**

**36,165**

**211**

###### **7,473,334**

Conflict induced and Natural Disaster IDPs

Natural Disaster IDPs

**528,466**

**7%**

**6,419,356**

**86%**

IDPs RET

**525,512**

**7.0%**

do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations

**Author: UNHCR DIMA - RSA** Contact : rsarbdima@unhcr.org **Source:** UNHCR Primes, Government, IOM, OCHA, UNHCR

**Author: UNHCR DIMA - RSA** Contact : rsarbdima@unhcr.org **Source: REF, ASY, OOC, RET** (UNHCR PRIMES, Government); **IDP DRC** (OCHA); IDP Zimbabwe & Mozambique (IOM); **IDP ROC** (Government, Ministry of Social Affairs and Humanitarian Action (MASAH).

*PoCs = Persons of Concern   ** REF = Refugee; ASY = Asylum-seeker; OOC = Other person of concern; RET = Returnee. DRC = Democratic Republic of the Congo  ROC = Republic of the Congo Date of creation : 30 September
2022

For more information visit: UNHCR Data Portal

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Input:
### **OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHT**

##### **September/ October 2023 report**

###### Venezuela

**Some key achievements**

- Humanitarian Needs Overview (HNO)

Process

- Coordination with other platforms,

subnational Clusters, ICCG, and Partners

- Accountability for Affected Populations

(AAP) WG

- GPC Townhall

- La Carnada Play

- Annual TiP Bulletin 2022-2023

- Food Security and Livelihoods (FSL) and

Trafficking in Persons (TiP)

- Monthly Meetings of the WGTiP

- Protection Mainstreaming Training

- Training on Mixed Migration and Durable

Solutions

- Reporting Transition to 345W

- Focal Group Discussions with LGBTIQ+

Organizations for Thematic Protection

Analysis Update (PAU)

- Mental Health and Psychosocial Support

(MHPSS) Coaching and Training of Trainers

(ToT)

- Participation in the Gender ToT for

Government Officials

**4**

**I. Humanitarian Program Cycle**

**2024: Humanitarian Needs**

**Overview (HNO) Process**

**September was dedicated to identi-**

**fying and define indicators and the**

**local adjustment of severity scales**

**for People in Need (PIN) and Needs**

**Severity Calculation as part of the**

**Humanitarian Needs Overview (HNO)**

**process.** The indicators defined for the

Protection Cluster (PC) Severity and PIN

calculation are Protection Risks, Protec
tion Risks linked to trafficking in person,

Access to Documentation, Access to

the Justice System, Negative Coping

Mechanisms in Protection, Violent

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Input:
**than native workers.** There may be different reasons for this
as perhaps immigrants have character traits that make them more inclined towards entrepreneurial activity (unclear in the case of refugees), or maybe it is a way to avoid occupational downgrading as immigrants find it difficult to prove their educational and professional credentials from home countries.
Notwithstanding the reason, such effects are observed across the OECD countries (OECD, 2011). In a recent paper, Anelli, Basso, Ippedico, and Peri (2023) look at Italian data, finding that one standard deviation increase in emigration rate generates 4.8% decline of business formation in the municipality of origin.
The authors use existing migration networks to ensure causality of the results. Nevertheless, it is unclear whether immigrantcreated businesses are more successful from the native ones, but one could speculate that a higher rate of trying new business ideas spurs more successes.

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Input:
Outcomes were relatively consistent across types of support. Those who accessed only formal support (e.g., psychotherapy or structured group interventions) reported improvement in 88% of cases (with 34% stating “yes” and 54% reporting “slight” improvement). Individuals relying on only informal support (e.g., help from friends, family, or employers) reported improvement in 91% of cases, with slightly fewer reporting “yes” (29%) and a higher percentage indicating “slight” improvement (62%). Meanwhile, those who accessed both formal and informal support were slightly more likely to state “yes” regarding improvement (40%), with 51% indicating “slight” improvement (for a total of 91% of cases reporting some improvement). Although differences are small, results imply that a combination of support types may be associated with enhanced perceived effectiveness. Further research is needed to explore this potential relationship.

These findings demonstrate that, overall, those who accessed support perceived this support to be beneficial. Results reinforce the importance of integrating both formal and informal support mechanisms to maximize positive outcomes, as well as tailoring interventions to demographic and country-specific needs to enhance the well-being of individuals receiving MHPSS services. The data also

**23**

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Input:
Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (DTTL), its global network of member firms, and their related entities (collectively, the “Deloitte organization”). DTTL (also referred to as “Deloitte Global”) and each of its member firms and related entities are legally separate and independent entities, which cannot obligate or bind each other in respect of third parties. DTTL and each DTTL member firm and related entity is liable only for its own acts and omissions, and not those of each other. DTTL does not provide services to clients. Please see www.deloitte.com/about to learn more.

Deloitte provides industry-leading audit and assurance, tax and legal, consulting, financial advisory, and risk advisory services to nearly 90% of the Fortune Global 500® and thousands of private companies. Our people deliver measurable and lasting results that help reinforce public trust in capital markets, enable clients to transform and thrive, and lead the way toward a stronger economy, a more equitable society, and a sustainable world. Building on its 175-plus year history, Deloitte spans more than 150 countries and territories. Learn how Deloitte’s approximately 457,000 people worldwide make an impact that matters at www.deloitte.com.

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A general reference to data, information, or statistics that contains a data noun but lacks enough specificity to identify the exact source


Input:
HIGH EMPLOYMENT RATES, BUT LOW WAGES: A POVERTY ASSESSMENT OF UKRAINIAN REFUGEES IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES

**Republic of Moldova: the case for housing costs corrections in income-based poverty metrics**

Data from the Republic of Moldova highlights the limitations of poverty metrics that rely solely on disposable income, as they fail to account for vulnerability related to asset ownership. Based on income alone, the 2024 poverty rate suggests that Ukrainian refugees are able to attain a higher standard of living than their hosts, with only 10% living in poverty compared to 32% of Moldovans. This apparent disparity is largely driven by the sizeable financial support that Ukrainians received from humanitarian organizations in 2024, which amounted to 44% of their total household income. While the above comparison could suggest that the provided aid is excessive, such an interpretation overlooks an important factor – namely that only 5% of Moldovans incur rental expenses compare to 41% of refugees. In fact, including utilities, housing costs were estimated to consume 46% of refugees’ disposable income (inclusive of humanitarian aid), whereas they account for just 14% for Moldovan households. In essence, these findings indicate that refugees are using the entirety of their aid to cover accommodation needs. Adjusting disposable income at the household level to reflect these additional housing expenses raises the poverty rate for refugees to 43%, surpassing that of Moldovans.

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Input:
Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

#### **2.2 Current occupational situation**

Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland Administrative ZUS data can be used as a proxy for both average and _gross_ earnings percentages. On June 30, 2024, average bases for social contributions of Ukrainian refugees accounted for just 64% of those of Polish citizens. However, this is only relative to Polish citizens not all workers in the economy as a whole, and comes with other caveats of administrative instead of survey data sources – data given on a particular day instead of period average, the shadow economy unaccounted for, different contributions based on the type of contract, no data for farmers who belong to a separate social insurance scheme.
Also, the ZUS data, that is available, is much more limited that the SEIS survey data primarily used in this report.

**Ukrainian refugees in Poland have**

**clearly improved their economic**

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Input:
**age.** The best population data available
is the regularly updated active PESEL database. [4] According to the registry, 61.5% of the registered are women and 38.5% are men. The database also includes the age of PESEL UKR holders, which indicates that over half (57.4%), i.e. more than 560 thousand people, are of working age (18-65). While the male and female shares of people below 18 years of age (20% and 19%, respectively) and 66+ (1% and 3%) are similar, there is a large difference among productive-age individuals, with women 18-65 making up 40% and men only 18% of Ukrainian refugee population. This is largely due to the conscription of military aged men in Ukraine.

66+ 56-65 46-55 36-45 26-35 18-25 <18

---
[4] Available in the repository maintained by the government https://dane.gov.pl/pl/dataset/2715 as well as UNHCR data portal https://app.powerbi.com/

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Input:
HIGH EMPLOYMENT RATES, BUT LOW WAGES: A POVERTY ASSESSMENT OF UKRAINIAN REFUGEES IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES

**HOUSEHOLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION BY SOURCE AND POVERTY CATEGORY**

Employment Family support Social protection (host country) Old age pension (Ukraine) 12% 67% Social protection (Ukraine) 35% Humanitarian cash 8% 13% 23% 6% Other 5% 3% 3% 5% Below the poverty line Below the poverty line after housing cost correction Above the poverty line after housing cost correction Source: Survey data, SAG estimates 26% 88%

**Higher employment earnings were the main driver behind the drop in poverty rates from**

**2023**

The mean monthly equivalized household income [12] of Ukrainian refugees across the seven countries surveyed in both rounds increased by 38% from last year, to an equivalent of EUR 763. This increase was much higher than the 4% rise in the regional poverty threshold over the same time.

Approximately 90% of the increase in refugee household income can be attributed to higher employment earnings, driven by a combination of rising employment rates and wage growth. A significantly smaller, though still notable, contribution came from increased financial support from families in Ukraine, although this finding may partially be an artifact of adjustments to the survey questionnaire [13] .

A dataset, survey, database, index, census, registry, or information system with a specific proper name that can be cited, queried, or downloaded as a data source

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Input:
_UNHCR
 Discussion
 Paper
 –15
 June
 2013_

engagement
 of
 key
 partners,
 including
 relevant
 development
 actors
 and
 the
 private
sector
 since
 the
 early
 stage
 will
 be
 a
 crucial
 component
 of
 UNHCR’s
 strategy.

Current
 co-‐ordination
 fora
 include
 the
 South-‐East
 Consultation
 Platform,
 led
 by
 UNHCR,
consisting
 of
 UN,
 NGO,
 donors,
 Government
 and
 other
 partners,
 including
 the
 Myanmar
Peace
 Centre
 (MPC) [9] .
 This
 currently
 meets
 every
 2-‐3
 months
 in
 Yangon.
 The
 objective
 of
the
 Platform
 is
 to
 maintain
 a
 common
 understanding
 of
 the
 operational
 environment
and
 challenges
 in
 the
 South-‐East
 and
 to
 forge
 strategic
 partnerships.
 UNHCR
 also
 chairs
the
 National
 Protection
 Working
 Group.

Monthly
 inter-‐agency
 co-‐ordination
 meetings,
 chaired
 by
 UNHCR
 and
 attended
 by
humanitarian
 partners,
 are
 currently
 held
 in
 Mawlamyine
 (Mon
 State),
 Taungoo
 (Bago
Region),
 and
 Myeik
 and
 Dawei
 (Tanintharyi
 Region).
 Inter-‐agency
 meetings
 also
 take
place
 in
 Loikaw
 (Kayah
 State),
 chaired
 on
 a
 rotational
 basis
 amongst
 agencies.

In
 January
 2013,
 UNHCR
 also
 initiated
 cross-‐border
 meetings
 between
 UNHCR
Myanmar
 and
 UNHCR
 Thailand.

---
[9] The
 Myanmar
 Government
 draft
 Framework
 for
 Economic
 and
 Social
 Reform
 2012-‐2015
 tasks
 the

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Input:
**WEIGHTED AVERAGE MONTHLY EQUIVALIZED INCOME EVOLUTION, EUR**

800 600 400 200 0 Equivalized income 2023 Employment Family Host country income support social protection Ukraine social protection (inc.
pensions) Humanitarian Other Equivalized cash income 2024 Note: Only includes data from the 7 countries surveyed in both rounds (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Republic of Moldova, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia) Source: Survey data, SAG estimates 12. Household disposable income adjusted for size, as per Eurostat’s methodology 13. The 2024 survey probed for income from family in Ukraine more explicitly

**9**

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Input:
The established mechanisms in refugee camps and in N’Djamena to ensure substantial refugee participation
at local levels remain functional. This includes elected committees representing refugees, along with separate
committees for men, women and children/young individuals. Sectoral committees such as those for livelihoods,
child protection, education and healthcare are also still active. Additionally, inclusive and mixed committees
of leaders or sectoral representatives in refugee hosting villages continue to facilitate interaction between
members of both communities, addressing both general and specific issues. During the COVID-19 pandemic,
when physical access to refugees became difficult due to government restrictions, alternative communication
methods (e.g. posters, banners, radio announcements, phone calls and SMS), and mobile protection teams,
were utilized by CNARR to stay in touch with refugee communities.

**2.4** **Access to civil registration and documentation**

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Input:
Similarly to the above results, an early analysis by Gromadzki and Lewandowski (2023) found no impact on the employment rate or unemployment rate. In a peerreviewed scientific article, they examined the impact of Ukrainian refugees on the labour market outcomes of Polish women from January to April 2022 (as most Ukrainian refugees are female). They found that the proportion of Ukrainian refugees in a given poviat had no statistically significant impact on the employment rate or unemployment rate of Polish women.

Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

**Chart 29. Effect of a 1 pp. change in employment share of Ukrainian refugees on gross wage change**
Cross-section model of all 380 poviats in 2023. Results are statistically significant at a 0.01 level.

200 150 100 50 0 OLS IV (pupils) IV (2019) IV (both)

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Input:
because of the nature of the data. Panel A uses three variables that reflect conditions around the

year of birth of the child. Note that women report their birth history, in what year the child was

born, and the baby’s health. She reports this information in the survey year, but retroactively,

recollecting the year of birth. Therefore, we deem that the birth year mining activity is more

relevant than the survey year mining activity for the outcomes in Panel A. In particular, we test

if an active mine nearby in the birth year of the child influences the baby’s size at birth, infant

mortality, and the number of antenatal visits. In Panel B we use the main specification of mining

activity in the survey year, as these variables are more reflective of current conditions in the

survey year than past conditions around the time of the birth.

Panel A of table 5 shows that infants in active mine communities are less likely to be born large,

and that the mother had insignificantly fewer prenatal visits. However, infant mortality

decreases by 4 percentage points. Splitting the sample by gender, we note that this decrease is

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Input:
# Abstract

The beginning of the full-scale war in Ukraine in February 2022 resulted in a large outflow of refugees, reaching more than 6 million globally.

Much of this exodus happened through the Polish border. As of October 2023, almost 1 million Ukrainian refugees were living in Poland. While in the past decade Poland experienced large labour migration from Ukraine, the refugee inflow had a different demographic composition.
It primarily included working age women (41%) and children (40%). These refugees from Ukraine did not plan to move, and many had special needs. Despite these difficulties, refugees began entering the labour market surprisingly quickly – attaining an employment rate of 28% in May 2022 and 65% in November 2022 (NBP, 2023). By July-August 2023 Ukrainian refugee households supported themselves, with 80% of their incomes coming from work. [1]

---
[1] Deloitte calculations based on Multi-Sector Needs Assessment Poland 2023 survey data provided by UNHCR.

Multi-Sector Needs Assessment Poland 2023 survey data

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Input:
Power BI Desktop Somalia’s Solutions Pathways The Department of Poverty Reduction and Durable Solutions of the Ministry of Planning, Investments, and Economic Development (MoPIED) in Somalia continues to play a leading role in overseeing and addressing solutions to internal displacement in the country.
In 2024, the department conducted a series of durable solutions pathways consultations across all federal member states and the Banadir Regional Administration (BRA), resulting in the National Solutions Pathways Action Plan. These consultations aimed to identify key approaches to facilitate the durable solutions pathways of one million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) from their displacement situations, in alignment with the National Durable Solutions Strategy, the National Development Plan and the United Nations Secretary-General’s Action Agenda on Internal Displacement, emphasising three interconnected goals: achieving durable solutions, ensuring protection and assistance, and preventing future displacement.
Baseline Analysis This document presents key quantitative data under each of the six Solutions Pathways: 1) Government leadership, 2) Access to Basic Services, 3) Employment and Livelihood Opportunities, 4) Legal Documentation, HLP and Access to Justice, 5) Climate Change and Resilience. Pathway 6 refers to Data for Solutions, which is cross-cutting and covers MoPIED's Durable Solutions Progress (DSP) Survey, was supported by IOM Somalia in 2024. Data from this survey is presented under each of the six pathways in this document. Data collected by UNHCR related to protection and conflict sensitivity is also presented, highlighting key cross-cutting issues to consider in implementing the plan.

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Input:
While
 UNHCR
 has
 been
 present
 and
 operational
 in
 South-‐East
 Myanmar
 since
 2004,
 the
UNHCR
 framework
 for
 co-‐operation
 with
 the
 Government
 of
 the
 Union
 of
 Myanmar
 in
the
 South-‐East
 is
 defined
 by
 a
 draft
 Letter
 of
 Understanding
 (LOU)
 with
 its
 line
 Ministry,
the
 Ministry
 of
 Border
 Affairs
 (NaTaLa).
 The
 LOU
 articulates
 UNHCR
 and
 NaTaLa’s
responsibilities
 in
 regard
 to
 the
 implementation
 of
 programmes
 aimed
 at
 improving
livelihoods
 in
 communities
 affected
 by
 displacement,
 reducing
 the
 risk
 of
 further
displacement,
 and
 specifically
 creating
 the
 appropriate
 conditions
 for
 return
 for
 IDPs
and
 refugees.
 The
 current
 LOU,
 which
 includes
 Kayin,
 Mon,
 Kayah,
 Shan
 and
 Chin
 States,
and
 Bago
 and
 Tanintharyi
 Regions,
 was
 signed
 on
 10
 June
 2013.

Once
 the
 required
 safeguards
 are
 in
 place
 for
 the
 return
 of
 refugees
 and
 an
 organized
programme
 is
 to
 be
 launched,
 a
 tripartite
 agreement
 between
 Myanmar,
 Thailand
 and
UNCHR
 should
 form
 the
 main
 legal
 framework
 for
 the
 voluntary
 repatriation
 and

6
 Executive
 Committee
 Conclusion
 29
 of
 1983
 calls
 upon
 Governments
 to
 facilitate
 the
 work
 of
 UNHCR
 “in
creating
 conditions
 favourable
 to
 and
 promoting
 voluntary
 repatriation,
 which
 whenever
 appropriate
 and
feasible
 is
 the
 most
 desirable
 solution
 for
 refugee
 problems.”
 Also
 refer
 to
 Executive
 Committee
 Conclusions

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Input:
NAVIGATING HEALTH AND WELL-BEING CHALLENGES FOR REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE

### **Social cohesion and** **MHPSS**

An association between perceived hostility and mental health challenges remains evident across the region, with households experiencing hostility in their social environment more likely to report mental health and psychosocial problems (44%) compared to those not experiencing hostility (31%). Perceived hostility may increase vulnerability to distress, while distress may in turn influence individuals to perceive their environments as more hostile, creating a reinforcing cycle. This trend is consistent across countries, with notable between-country differences: Romania continues to report the highest percentage of problems both for households experiencing hostility (64%) and those not experiencing hostility (49%), while Czechia consistently reports the lowest percentages in both categories (24% and 20%, respectively). Significant differences also emerged between countries such as Hungary and Moldova, where the prevalence of mental health and psychosocial problems in households experiencing hostility is relatively high (63% and 56%, respectively), but the prevalence among those not experiencing hostility diverges dramatically (32% in Hungary versus 16% in Moldova). These findings highlight the importance of addressing perceived hostility and its impact on mental health, through targeted, country-specific MHPSS and social cohesion interventions.

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Input:
UNHCR
 ProGres
 data
 on
 the
 83,044
 registered
 refugees
 in
 Thailand
 indicates
 an
estimated
 84
 per
 cent
 are
 ethnic
 Karen
 and
 12
 per
 cent
 are
 ethnic
 Karenni.
 The
remaining
 4
 per
 cent
 are
 of
 Burman,
 Shan,
 and
 Mon
 descent,
 and
 other
 groups.
 The
majority
 of
 registered
 refugees
 come
 from
 Kayin
 State
 (65.3
 per
 cent),
 followed
 by
Kayah
 (14.6
 per
 cent),
 Tanintharyi
 (7.3
 per
 cent),
 Bago
 (5.2
 per
 cent)
 and
 Mon
 (5
 per
cent).
 (Annex:
 Myanmar
 Thailand
 Border
 –
 Refugee
 Overview,
 as
 of
 end
 of
 March
 2013)

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Input:
Securing
 durable
 solutions
 is
 fundamentally
 linked
 to
 the
 restoration
 of
 national
capacity
 to
 provide
 for
 the
 protection
 and
 welfare
 of
 formerly
 displaced
 communities,
and
 UNHCR’s
 role
 should
 be
 designed
 to
 support
 such
 an
 outcome,
 through
 systematic
engagement
 with
 key
 Government
 counterparts,
 civil
 society
 and
 other
 national
stakeholders.

National
 authorities
 have
 primary
 responsibility
 to
 secure
 durable
 solutions
 for
 those
who
 have
 been
 formerly
 displaced,
 while
 UNHCR
 and
 other
 humanitarian
 and
development
 actors
 have
 a
 complementary
 role.

Co-‐ordination
 and
 multi-‐sector
 engagement
 is
 also
 critical
 to
 the
 sustainable
reintegration
 of
 refugees
 and
 durable
 solutions
 for
 IDPs [8] .
 Therefore,
 mobilising
 the

---
[8] See
 UNHCR’s
 2008
 Policy
 on
 the
 Return
 and
 Reintegration
 of
 Refugees
 and
 IDPs,
 and
 the
 2011
 Secretary-‐

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Input:
**Table 13 Effects of gold production at the district level on employment**

Panel A: Using production in the previous period
(3) (4)
not agriworking culture

(3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (1) (2)
not agri- service or profess- manual earns works all
working culture sales ional work cash year

gold period 0.003 -0.009** 0.003* 0.004*** -0.002 -0.001 0.008**
district (0.004) (0.004) (0.002) (0.002) (0.004) (0.002) (0.003)

(4)
agriculture

(5)
service or
sales

(6)
professional

(7)
manual
work

(1)
earns
cash

observations 19,175 19,175 19,175 19,175 19,175 19,270 15,991
R-squared 0.207 0.327 0.127 0.137 0.037 0.213 0.278
PANEL B. Using production in the same year
(3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (1) (2)
not agri- service profess- manual earns works
working culture or sales ional work cash all year

gold year 0.012 -0.033 0.020 0.019* -0.018 -0.010 0.041***
district (0.022) (0.025) (0.013) (0.011) (0.015) (0.009) (0.008)

observations 19,175 19,175 19,175 19,175 19,175 19,270 15,991
R-squared 0.207 0.327 0.128 0.137 0.037 0.213 0.278

_Note:_ Robust standard errors clustered at the district level in parentheses. All regressions control for year and
district fixed effects, urban dummy, age, and years of education. *** p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1.

**7.3 Investigating spillovers**

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Input:
During the 2019 Global Refugee Forum, the Government of Chad committed, among other things, to
issuing biometric Refugee Identity Cards and Machine-Readable Refugee Convention Travel Documents
(MRCTDs) to meet international standards. A study by the National Agency for Secure Documents (Agence
Nationale des Titres Sécurisés, ANATS), the only competent authority for issuing biometric identity and
travel documents, outlined a technical proposal released in March 2023 for the project’s implementation,
but financial resources are currently lacking to operationalize this pledge. As of 30 June 2023, no biometric
identity card neither CTD has been delivered by the competent national authorities (ANATS) to refugees.

The 2023 Decree specifies that CNARR and UNHCR collaboratively handle the reception and pre-registration
of new arrivals at the international border, following the completion of police formalities. The pre-registration
specifically pertains to situations involving arrivals in groups. In practice, the entire registration of newly
arrived asylum-seekers remains jointly conducted by CNARR and UNHCR. This involves collecting all the

A dataset, survey, database, index, census, registry, or information system with a specific proper name that can be cited, queried, or downloaded as a data source

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Input:
migrants can thus in part be because a less-well-off part of the population chooses to migrate to

mining areas, not that they are made worse off because of the mine activities.

We also explored a decomposition of the anthropometric results along the migration division,

but we found no important differences.

**Figure 5 Diarrheal incidence among children under 5 by migration status**

**Panel A Nonmigrants** **Panel B Migrants**

24

A dataset, survey, database, index, census, registry, or information system with a specific proper name that can be cited, queried, or downloaded as a data source

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Input: 9 These employment rates are very close to the ones from the Polish central bank surveys of Ukrainian refugees, which showed 62% in July 2023 and 68% in July 2024 (NBP, 2024). NBP (2024) age group was slightly different, describing adults as 18 years or older.

Polish central bank surveys of Ukrainian refugees

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Input:
only in conjunction with policies for local procurement. Moreover, some of the mining-related

papers have focused on mining in an African context, exploring a range of outcomes, including

HIV-transmission and sexual risk taking (Corno and de Walque 2012; Wilson 2012), women’s

empowerment (Benshaul-Tolonen 2018), infant mortality (Benshaul-Tolonen, 2019) and labor

market outcomes (Kotsadam and Tolonen 2016). Mining is also associated with more economic

activity measured by nightlights (Benshaul-Tolonen, 2019; Mamo et al, 2019).

Kotsadam and Tolonen (2016) use DHS data from Africa, and find that mine openings cause

women to shift from agriculture to service production and that women become more likely to

work for cash and year-round as opposed to seasonally. Continuing this analysis, Benshaul

Tolonen (2018) explores the links between mining and female empowerment in eight gold

producing countries in East and West Africa, including Ghana. Women in gold mining

communities have more diversified labor markets opportunities, better access to health care,

and are less likely to accept domestic violence. In addition, infant mortality rates decrease with

up to 50% in mining communities, from very high initial levels (Benshaul-Tolonen, 2019). In

a study that focuses exclusively on Ghana, Aragón and Rud (2013) explore the link between

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Input:
Land ownership remains a complex issue in the absence of a codified land law, and the general regime
of land ownership, encompassing both formal and traditional rights, has not undergone any changes in
the past three years. Customary and Islamic laws continue to govern access to and control of land and
natural resources in urban and rural areas. While these customary systems vary considerably across the

R E F U G E E P O L I C Y R E V I E W F R A M E W O R K > **R E P U B L I C O F C H A D** 9

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Input:
**qualification compared to Polish**

**citizens.** While the proportion of
individuals with tertiary education among refugees is slightly higher than among Polish citizens (40% vs 38%), only 12% of refugees work as managers, professionals, and technicians (occupational groups usually requiring higher education) compared to 37% of Poles. Consequently, the wage premium for individuals with tertiary education is much lower among refugees than among Poles (22% vs 84%).

A dataset, survey, database, index, census, registry, or information system with a specific proper name that can be cited, queried, or downloaded as a data source

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Input:
mining companies in Ghana was 3 percent until 2010, which was the average rate for gold

production in Africa (Gajigo, Mutambatsere, and Mdiaya 2012), but increased to 5 percent in

2010 (Standing and Hilson 2013). Of this money, 80 percent goes to the general government

budget, 10 percent goes to the administration of mining oversight, and 10 percent supports

district administration (Garvin et al. 2009). Between 1993 and 1998, about US$17 million was

distributed to local mining communities (Aryee 2001). While considered a model of best

practice, there is still a worry that the beneficial effects of allocations to the districts are

undermined by elite capture and corruption at the district level (Standing and Hilson 2013). For

our analysis, the scheme implies that it may be necessary to conduct a district-level analysis in

addition to the more local-level analyses.

12 currently active mines dominate the sector, and there are an additional five suspended mines

that have been in production in recent decades. Table 1 presents a full list of the mines, the year

they opened, and their status as of December 2012. Company name and country are for the

A dataset, survey, database, index, census, registry, or information system with a specific proper name that can be cited, queried, or downloaded as a data source

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Input: Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland Refugees from Ukraine are not yet utilising their full potential in the Polish labour market. In May 2022, 46% of arriving refugees declared that they had no knowledge of the Polish language (NBP, 2023). Over time, this percentage improved, with data from November 2022 showing a result of 21%, though this still represents a large group of people who do not know the local language [24], placing them at risk of limiting possible jobs to those below their educational level. Nearly 40% of Refugees from Ukraine insured at ZUS on 30th June 2023 in Poland were employed in elementary occupations [25], while for all employed persons in Q2 2023 this percentage was only 5%. Furthermore, the Deloitte Ukraine Refugee Pulse report indicates that 50% of respondents point to language barriers as an obstacle to accessing services to meet basic needs (Deloitte, 2023). Meanwhile, in the MSNA Poland 2023 survey, when asked about encountered barriers for accessing the labour market, 34% of respondents pointed to lack of language knowledge.

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Input:
**migrants was challenging to quantify.**
Since the onset of the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine in 2014, there was a consistent influx of Ukrainians into Poland.
Many of them sought work as Ukraine’s economy declined and the currency devalued. Most of the migrants came as guest workers, a status brought in by a 2011 law enabling Ukrainians and five other nations to work in Poland for six months Source: Deloitte own elaboration based on Polish Border Guard Headquarter and PESEL data.

PESEL-UKR data Total entries-exits of the Polish-Ukrainian border during a year without a work permit, based on an employer’s declaration. This was a circular migration, with Ukrainians coming to Poland for half of the year, then returning to Ukraine for another six months, and coming back to Poland. The data on employers’ declarations do not reveal the actual number of Ukrainian citizens who followed this system – a single person could hold several declarations, because with every change of employer or promotion at the same employer they had to ask for a new declaration. What is more, with stays shorter than one year,

A dataset, survey, database, index, census, registry, or information system with a specific proper name that can be cited, queried, or downloaded as a data source

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Input:
Increased competition on the labour market could partially offset benefits from refugees. Although (due to a tight labour market) increase in labour force is almost entirely absorbed into working force, there should be slight increase in unemployment rate. Ultimately, it is estimated that it was higher by 0.14-0.25 pp. in 2022 and by 0.18-0.3 pp in 2023 which corresponds to respectively 24-42 thousand and 33-54 thousand additional people being unemployed [45] . In the long run, the unemployment rate should remain higher by 0.15-0.3 pp. Because of that, it is estimated that growth of real wages was slower in 2022 and 2023. It is estimated that due to the influx of refugees, real wages were lower in 2022 by 0.45-0.85% and in 2023 by 0.65-1.15%. Although in effect this is negative, it also means lower inflationary pressure from the labour market in the short term. Long-term real wages should be around 0.55-1.0% lower than in a scenario without refugees.
That said, the actual labour market effect is likely to be null as evidenced by econometric studies (Gromadzki and Lewandowski, 2023; Peri, 2014), which are elaborated on in Chapter 4. Gromadzki and Lewandowski (2023) in the early months of 2022 find no effect of Ukrainian refugees on earnings, employment, and unemployment rate of natives and other immigrants, except an actual slight positive impact on the wages of native women.

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Input:
Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

# **1.** Inflow of refugees from Ukraine into Poland

##### Even before the 2022 full-scale war in Ukraine the number of Ukrainians in Poland was substantial and growing, although their precise number is difficult to measure.

Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

**Chart 1.** Ukrainian workers with social insurance.

Rate of change (right axis) Number (left axis)

**Source:** Deloitte own elaboration based on ZUS data.

1000 750 500 250 0 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

-20%

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Input:
**higher productivity.** In a simplistic
supply-demand framework, the influx of Ukrainian refugees would have had a negative impact on Polish workers employment or caused a decline in real wages. However, this has not occurred.
First, Polish citizens employment rates have grown, and unemployment rates have fallen. Second, poviats in which the employment share of Ukrainian refugees has grown by 1 pp. saw 0.5 pp. higher employment rates among Polish citizens, and 0.3 pp. lower unemployment rates.
Third, there is no evidence of lowered wages, in fact the limited available data indicates that a higher share of Ukrainian refugees in a poviat may have caused local wages to rise. Such findings are in line with academic literature, which documents a positive impact of migrants on native workers. With foreigners entering the 04 Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

**Addressing the remaining issues of**

**refugee integration into the labour**

**market would improve their situation**

**and further benefit the Polish**

**economy.** The key measures to improve
refugees' standing include advanced language courses for professionals, easing of occupational licensing, especially requirements based on citizenship, and active labour market policies to help specific groups enter the labour market.

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Input:
## **Works cited**

[1] UNHCR, ‘Global Report 2023 - Executive Summary’, UNHCR, Geneva, Jun. 2024. Accessed: Jul. 13, 2024. [Online]. Available:
https://reporting.unhcr.org/global-report-2023-executive-summary

[2] UNHCR, ‘This is our home: stateless minorities and their search for citizenship’, 2017, [Online]. Available:
https://www.unhcr.org/ibelong/wp-content/uploads/UNHCR_EN2_2017IBELONG_Report_ePub.pdf

[3] D. S. Weissbrodt and C. Collins, ‘The Human Rights of Stateless Persons’, _hrq_, vol. 28, no. 1, pp. 245–276, Feb. 2006, doi:
10.1353/hrq.2006.0013.

[4] E. Abuya, ‘Out of the Shadows: towards ensuring the rights of stateless persons and persons at risk of statelessness in Kenya’, Kenya
National Commission on Human Rights (KNCHR) and UNHCR, Nairobi, Jul. 2010. [Online]. Available:
https://www.unhcr.org/media/out-shadows-towards-ensuring-rights-stateless-persons-and-persons-risk-statelessness-kenya

[5] B. Blitz and M. Lynch, ‘Statelessness and the Benefits of Citizenship: A Comparative Study.’, _Statelessness and Citizenship: A Comparative_
_Study on the Benefits of Nationality_, Jan. 2011.

[6] S. W. Goodman, ‘Citizenship Studies: Policy Causes and Consequences’, _Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci._, vol. 26, no. 1, pp. 135–152, Jun. 2023, doi:
10.1146/annurev-polisci-051921-102729.

[7] UNHCR, ‘High-Level Segment on Statelessness: Results and Highlights’. Accessed: Oct. 10, 2024. [Online]. Available:
https://www.unhcr.org/ibelong/high-level-segment-on-statelessness-results-and-highlights/

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Input:
REGIONAL BUREAU OF SOUTHERN AFRICA

PROTECTION MONITORING DASHBOARD ON INCIDENTS IN DRC AND MOZAMBIQUE

As of 30 September 2022

MAP SHOWING THE NUMBER OF REPORTED PROTECTION INCIDENTS PER

Province in Mozambique

(MOZ) covered by
protection monitoring

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Input:
Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland An ageing population coupled with a growing economy causes labour shortages. Despite falling number of available workers, the Polish economy is growing steadily, as it modernises and converges to the level of development of old EU Member States. Despite the Covid-19 pandemic, real GDP growth averaged 3.7% during the last decade. As a result, due to steady demand for labour since 2019, the harmonised unemployment rate in Poland has not exceeded 4%, oscillating around 3% in recent years. According to Eurostat data, in September 2023, harmonized unemployment in Poland reached 2.8%, the same level as Malta. In the entire EU, only the Czech Republic reached a lower level: 2.7%.
Vacancies stood at record heights before

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Input:
NAVIGATING HEALTH AND WELL-BEING CHALLENGES FOR REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE For households with a member with disability, health was the top priority with 56% of households reporting this as priority need compared to 30% of those without disability. Likewise, 45% of households with chronic illnesses identified healthcare access as their top priority, whereas households without chronically ill members ranked it fourth, with only 22% considering it a priority need. This indicates a modest decrease compared to 2023 when 58% of households with a member with disability and 48% of those with individuals with a chronic illness cited health as their top priority.

### **Need to access** **health care**

Regionally, 31% of individuals experienced health problems 30 days prior to the survey and needed to access health care. The reported experience of health problems was higher among under-fives (37%) and those over the age of 60 (60%), and it was higher among women above 18 years (36%) compared to men (31%). The discrepancies between women and men in terms of experiencing a health problem is particularly pronounced in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, where the rates of experiencing a health problem are 10% higher among women compared to men.

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Input:
a 22 percent increase in service sector participation. However, this effect is only statistically

significant at the 10 percent level, possibly due to the small sample size within that distance.

This is in contrast to the dummy for 0-20 km which is insignificant, pointing highly localized

effects on service sector employment for women. Using distance bin of 30 km, we estimate

zero treatment effect on the probability of service sector employment. Panel B of figure 4 shows

the results for cash-earning opportunities, and similarly, we estimate positive treatment effects

within 20 km.

In panel C of Figure 4, infant mortality is re-estimated using different distance spans. The

decrease in child mortality decreases almost linearly with the increase in distance bins, an

indication that the effects are only found close to a mine. The largest drop, and the only

significantly negative drop, is found for the distance bin 0–20 km.

**Figure 4 Varying the cutoff distance: Service sector employment, cash earnings, and infant**

**mortality**

**Panel A Service and sales** **Panel B Cash earnings            Panel C Infant mortality**

20

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Input:
to factors other than productivity growth, this is unlikely. Any negative impact could only arise if other workers left the labour force or reduced their working hours. No evidence of this is seen in recent Eurostat’s Labour Force Survey data for the Polish economy, where activity rates continued to grow, while the average number of usual weekly hours worked in full- and parttime employment remained fairly stable, particularly for women (who should be closer substitutes for Ukrainian refugees, most of whom are also women; see charts below).

Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

Eurostat’s Labour Force Survey data for the Polish economy

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Input:
At 44, she arrived in Poland from Kyiv on March 9, 2022, with her 7-year-old daughter, Viktoria, and 5-year-old son, Timur. “I came to the job fair to find a position in my field of expertise. I’m not afraid of physical work, but as the sole provider for my family of three, I need a more stable and better-paying job,” she explains.

© UNHCR/Anna Liminowicz

**2**

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Input:
from Ukraine has increased from 61% to 69%, while their unemployment rate has halved from 15% to 8%. Second, median net wage of Ukrainian refugees grew from PLN 3,100 to PLN 4,000, i.e. by 29%. While half of this wage growth came from the overall high earnings growth in the country due to high inflation (gross wages in the general economy grew by 15% [8] ), it was still a major improvement. Gross wage gains appear lower, with ZUS social insurance contributions data for the period from June 30, 2023 and June 30, 2024 showing an increase of 18% (compared to 15% for Polish citizens). As of June 30, 2024, only 44% of ZUS-insured Ukrainian refugees had an employment contract (compared to 82% of Polish citizens). Many may opt for civil law contracts and self-employment to limit their social insurance contributions to the level of minimum wage.

7 Together with refugees working remotely in Ukraine, their income from work would add up to 80% in the SEIS survey.

8 From Q2 2023 to Q2 2024, https://stat.gov.pl/en/latest-statistical-news/communications-and-announcements/list-of-communiques-and-announcements/averagegross-wage-in-the-second-quarter-2024,281,43.html 14

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Input:
Importantly, support with accommodation expenses reduces the calculated poverty rate of refugees from Ukraine to 32% (from 50%) if it is considered to be an indirect source of income [9] . This essentially means that rental aid, in whatever form it is provided, allows over a third of low-income [10] households to de facto live above the poverty line.
In Slovakia this effect is the most dramatic – subsidized housing allows an additional 46% of the refugee population to escape poverty.

**DECREASE IN THE REFUGEE POVERTY RATE AS A RESULT**

**OF ACCOMMODATION RENT SUPPORT, %** **[1,2,3]**

Not adoping coping strategies Stress coping Crisis coping Emergency strategies strategies coping strategies Without accommodation rent support

1. The statistic on emergency strategies may have been affected by
the survey wording on illegal work

---
[10] Those that are below the poverty line

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Input:
**Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland** **Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland**

# Table of contents

Abstract 04 Non-technical summary 06 Introduction 11

**1.** Inflow of refugees from Ukraine into Poland 12

**2.** Situation of refugees from Ukraine on the labour market in Poland 16

**3.** Economic impact modelling 30

**4.** Unaccounted positive externalities 38

Conclusions 41 Appendix. Model Calibration 42 Bibliography 44 This publication has been produced in cooperation with UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency.The content of this publication is the sole responsibility of Deloitte and may not reflect the views of UNHCR.

02 03

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Input:
22 Deloitte own calculations based on Informacja kwartalna o stanie fnansów publicznych - Ministerstwo Finansów - Portal Gov.pl for respective years. The general government income share in GDP in 2024 was calculated based on the data for Q1–Q3 and based on that total general government income was calculated using forecast for GDP from Wytyczne dotyczące wskaźników makroekonomicznych - Ministerstwo Finansów - Portal Gov.pl.

23 Model treats general government sector as a whole, as such cost and income internal structure may differ creating institutions with financial loses while other may have disproportionate increase of income.

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Input:
4. Access to National Public Services

health planning documents.

The 2019 agreement between the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) and the Ministry of Health, regarding the
progressive integration of camp health centres into the national health system, has facilitated the inclusion
of all camp health centres in the national system, with the assignment of a healthcare worker to each of
these centres, who is included on the Government payroll. The remaining personnel are still supported
by UNHCR through its partners. This support from UNHCR remains necessary because access to quality
Government led healthcare is still limited due to a shortage of healthcare professionals, medication, health
infrastructure, and equipment, as well as high costs.

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Input:
Certain employment barriers naturally become more pronounced when singling out certain demographics. Some 17% of adults living in households with young children (aged 0 to 11) report lack of childcare as a difficulty with peaks when the youngest child is between 3 and 4. Fifteen percent of those previously employed in the health sector and 14% in the education sector report skills recognition as a barrier.

Generally, analyzing employment in the host country through the lens of prior work experience offers valuable insights. Estimated unemployment is highest, at 33%, for those who were not employed in Ukraine prior to relocation. Among those who were employed, individuals working in administrative work faced the greatest challenge in transitioning, likely due to elevated local language

**7**

Do not know the local language Lack of decent employment opportunities Lack of employment opportunities for my skills Lack of employment opportunities for my age Lack of childcare services Lack of education/skills recognition Need to take care of others

1. Multiple answers were possible

52% 41% 27% 14% 11% 11% 10%

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Input:
distance. We divide the plane into 10-km distance bins and estimate the model with a full set

of distance bin dummies.

𝑌��� - 𝛽� �� 𝛽�𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑒�� 𝛽�𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒� ∙𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑒� ∝�� 𝑔� �𝜆𝑋� �𝜀���

�𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑒�� 𝛽�𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒� ∙𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑒� ∝�� 𝑔� �𝜆𝑋� �𝜀��� �2�

-

for d ∈ {0–10, 10–20, …, 80–90}.

This method, in addition to varying the cutoff point in the baseline estimation strategy, allows

us to identify in more detail the spatial structure of the data. Using this method, we can support

our choice of baseline cutoff distance.

Two limitations to both individual level analysis are that (i) clusters are not repeatedly sampled,

so cluster fixed effects cannot be included, (ii) the data is not representative below the regional

level and no weighting can be undertaken to ensure representability.

**4.2 District-level analysis**

While the estimation strategy in (1) captures some spillovers beyond the 20 km, and strategy

(2) maps the economic footprint of the mine up to 100 km, it does not capture district-level

12

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Input:
NAVIGATING HEALTH AND WELL-BEING CHALLENGES FOR REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE underscores the need to further explore how combinations of support types contribute to better outcomes and how service accessibility and quality can be optimized across different settings.

**% OF INDIVIDUALS WHO RECEIVED INFORMAL VS FORMAL**

**MENTAL HEALTH AND PSYCHOSOCIAL SUPPORT SERVICES**

**AND REPORT IMPROVEMENT**

Yes Slight No No worsening Only formal Only informal Both None Other (N=1,662) 34% 29% 40% 33% 46% 54% 62% 51% 57% 11% 9%

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Input:
**Table 11 Using GLSS: Employment on extensive and intensive margin and wages**

(6)
miner

(5)
service
and sales

(4)
agriculture

(3)
hours
worked
per week

(1)
worked
last year

(2)
work 7
days

Panel A: Women
_1. baseline_

active*mine -0.067* -0.032 3.565 -0.075 0.074 0.025
(0.040) (0.038) (3.140) (0.064) (0.054) (0.016)

_2. drop 20-40 km_

active*mine -0.062 -0.039 3.849 -0.076 0.094* 0.026*
(0.040) (0.039) (3.359) (0.064) (0.057) (0.015)

_3. drop 2 years before_

active*mine -0.067* -0.031 3.565 -0.087 0.080 0.024
(0.040) (0.038) (3.140) (0.065) (0.055) (0.016)

_4. mine FE_

active*mine -0.067 -0.012 8.560* -0.084 0.104 0.025*
(0.051) (0.048) (5.125) (0.075) (0.065) (0.015)

_5. mine clustering_

active*mine -0.067* -0.032 3.565 -0.075 0.074 0.025
(0.032) (0.036) (3.521) (0.081) (0.080) (0.022)

Mean dep var. 0.727 0.673 40.39 42.32 0.391 0.005
Panel B: Men
_1. baseline_ -0.086** -0.055 3.705 -0.058 -0.032 0.125***
active*mine (0.041) (0.039) (3.460) (0.066) (0.036) (0.043)

_2. drop 20-40 km_

active*mine -0.094** -0.062 3.893 -0.064 -0.031 0.126***
(0.042) (0.040) (3.842) (0.066) (0.038) (0.042)

_3. drop 2 years before_

active*mine -0.094** -0.062 3.708 -0.071 -0.026 0.125***
(0.041) (0.039) (3.459) (0.067) (0.036) (0.043)

_4. mine FE_

active*mine -0.123** -0.094* 8.233 -0.068 -0.049 0.113**
(0.057) (0.051) (5.425) (0.075) (0.044) (0.045)

_5. mine clustering_

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Input:
**average or gross earnings.** The median
net earnings of Ukrainian refugees in Q2 2024 were PLN 4,000 in SEIS, and PLN 3,767 in NBP (2024) surveys. This is 84% and 79% of the national median, respectively. This estimate would be most likely lower, if data allowed us to look at average or gross earnings. First, a comparison of average instead of median earnings would show a larger gap between Ukrainian refugees and all workers in the economy, as the national average is inflated by top incomes, which are less often earned by Ukrainian refugees than

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Input:
1. Host Communities

### **RPRF Policy Dimensions**

(as of 30 June 2023)

### **1. Host Communities**

**1.1** **Support for communities in refugee-hosting areas**

There has been little change since June 2020 in this domain and no specific national fiscal or budget policy
is yet in place to provide additional financial transfers to areas most affected by the presence of refugees.
Financial contributions for these areas still rely on projects and programs funded by external donors.

The government’s priorities remain focused on: (i) Defence and security, peace, social cohesion and national
reconciliation; (ii) Good governance and the rule of Law; and (iii) Return to constitutional order. In practice,
regarding transfers from central to local level, the Government of Chad continues to allocate twenty
percent of its budget to security, excluding other social sectors, amid ongoing challenges from conflicts in
neighboring countries, and economic and climatic crises.

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Input:
Refugees access Indonesia through the air and sea. Many refugees in Indonesia, particularly Rohingya
traveling by boats, are facilitated in their travel and arrive in the country with the assistance of agents.
In previous years, many Rohingya who arrived in Indonesia by sea – approximately 80% - departed
soon after arrival to Malaysia, where a large Rohingya community resides and more robust
employment opportunities, albeit informal opportunities, exist. UNHCR is extremely concerned about
credible reports that refugees in Indonesia – particularly Rohingya in Aceh and North Sumatra – are
being victimized by traffickers during their journey to Indonesia or during onward movement after
arrival in the country.  Refugees have reported numerous protection incidents that took place during
their movement to, through, and from Indonesia, including gender-based violence, physical abuse,
exploitation, harassment, intimidation, forced movement, and extortion. UNHCR monitors the
movement of refugees to assess trends and identify protection risks, to engage with Indonesian
authorities to respond to reports of trafficking, and to counsel on the risks of onward movement.

### **Ensuring Protection with Resource Limitations**

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Input:
Preparedness
 activities
 will
 continue
 and
 will
 be
 strengthened,
 including
 assistance
 to
spontaneous
 return.
 As
 patterns
 of
 spontaneous
 returns
 to
 specific
 locations
 emerge,
 in
particular
 with
 the
 return
 of
 entire
 households,
 UNHCR
 will
 enhance
 its
 assistance
 to
returnees
 and
 their
 communities
 though
 an
 integrated
 multi-‐sector
 package
 of
interventions
 with
 the
 aim
 of
 building
 confidence
 without
 creating
 an
 artificial
 ‘pull’
factor.
 UNHCR
 will
 aim
 to
 play
 a
 leading
 role
 in
 bringing
 partners
 together
 to
 address
the
 identified
 needs,
 in
 the
 area
 of
 legal,
 physical
 and
 material
 safety,
 collectively
 and
 in
an
 integrated
 manner.

**10.3.** **Phase
 3:
 Refugee
 repatriation
 and
 initial
 reintegration
 operations**

Previous
 phases
 activities
 will
 be
 further
 strengthened
 and
 operationalized
 with
 a
focus
 on
 providing
 immediate
 relief
 assistance
 to
 newly
 returned
 refugees
 while
enhancing
 early
 recovery
 and
 development
 partnerships.
 Activities
 specific
 to
 this
phase
 will
 include:

- Provision
 of
 immediate
 relief
 assistance
 such
 as
 food,
 non-‐food
 items
 and
shelter
 in
 accordance
 with
 international
 standards
 and
 any
 nationally
 agreed
humanitarian
 standards.
 Particular
 support
 will
 be
 provided
 to
 the
 most
vulnerable
 previously
 identified
 through
 a
 referral
 mechanism
 with
 the
 country
of
 asylum.

A dataset, survey, database, index, census, registry, or information system with a specific proper name that can be cited, queried, or downloaded as a data source

A data source described by its characteristics or producer rather than a proper name, containing a data noun and at least one identifying descriptor

A general reference to data, information, or statistics that contains a data noun but lacks enough specificity to identify the exact source