Input:
calculate from each mine location to each DHS cluster. This is also the distance measure that

we use to create the “mine” dummy, which captures whether the cluster lies within 20 km of a

known gold deposit. Note that we only consider deposits that have been in production at some

point until December 2012.

All households are thus within 100 km of one, or several, gold deposits. To ascertain whether

there is any gold production in these potential mining sites, we construct an indicator variable

_active_, which takes a value of 1 if there is at least one mine within 100 km that was extracting

gold in the year the household was surveyed, and 0 otherwise. While the _mine_ dummy captures

some of the special characteristics of mining areas (for example, whether mines tend to open in

less urban areas), the _active_ dummy captures long-range spillovers of mining.

The treatment effect that we are mostly interested in is captured with the _active*mine_

coefficient. The coefficient for _β3_ tells us what the effect of being close to an actively producing

mine is. Since the inclusion of the three dummies ( _active_, _mine_, and _active*mine_ ) captures the

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Input:
work, and the likelihood increases by 5.4 percentage points, which is equal to a 6 percent

increase.

While the directionality of the occupational outcomes is broadly in line with previous results

(Kotsadam and Tolonen, 2016, for 29 African countries, and Benshaul-Tolonen, 2018, for 8

African gold-producing countries), the estimates are largely insignificant, potentially due to a

limited sample size. Two categories have positive, albeit insignificant, coefficients: services

and manual labor. The (insignificant) estimate for service jobs [9] is equivalent to 6.7% increased

employment, and manual labor 10.2%, alongside which the likelihood that a woman earns cash

for her work increases with 6%.

For men (panel B of table 4), the estimates point toward an increase in agriculture, services,

and professional (all statistically insignificant estimates), but a decreased likelihood of working

in manual labor. Results for men in panel B are largely insignificant, and it is worthwhile noting

that the sample size is only slightly above 50% than the women sample size due to DHS

sampling frame.

**Table 4 OLS estimates women’s and men’s occupation in the DHS individual-level analysis**

Occupation

---
[9] Service sector jobs in the wake of structural transformation has been found important in

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Input:
Peri, G. (2012). The effect of immigration on productivity: Evidence from US states. Review of Economics and Statistics, 94(1), 348-358.

Peri, G. (2014). Do immigrant workers depress the wages of native workers? IZA World of Labor, 42.

Peri, G. (2016). Immigrants, productivity, and labor markets. Journal of economic perspectives, 30(4), 3-30.

Peri, G., & Sparber, C. (2009). Task specialization, immigration, and wages.
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 1(3), 135-169.

Peterson, B. D., Pandya, S. S., & Leblang, D. (2014). Doctors with borders: occupational licensing as an implicit barrier to high skill migration. Public Choice, 160(1-2), 45–63. doi:10.1007/s11127-014-0152-8 Schmid, L. (2023). The impact of host language proficiency on migrants’ employment outcomes. American Economic Review: Insights, 5(4), 477-493.

Sohst, R., Tirado, T., Salgado, L., & Slootjes, J. (2024). Exploring Refugees’ Intentions to Return to Ukraine: Data Insights and Policy Responses.
International Organization for Migration and Migration Policy Institute Europe.

Strzelecki, P., Growiec, J., & Wyszyński, R. (2022). The contribution of immigration from Ukraine to economic growth in Poland. Review of World Economics, 158(2), 365-399.

Tokariuk, O. (2025). Ukraine’s fight for its people. Strategies for refugee and diaspora engagement, Ukraine Forum, Chatham House, February.

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**4.2** **Health care**

[Article 21 of the Asylum Law](https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2091861/645b938a4.pdf) stipulates that every refugee or asylum seeker is entitled to the right to health
under the same conditions as nationals.

During the prescribed period, Chad has developed a new [National Health Development Plan for 2022-](https://www.afro.who.int/fr/countries/chad/publication/plan-national-de-developpement-sanitaire-pnds-4-2022-2030#:~:text=PLAN%20NATIONAL%20DE%20DEVELOPPEMENT%20SANITAIRE%20(PNDS%204)%202022%2D2030,-Le%20Minist%C3%A8re%20de&text=Le%20PNDS4%20est%20le%20dernier,des%20Objectifs%20de%20D%C3%A9veloppement%20Durable.)
[2030, aiming to establish an integrated, efficient, resilient, and person-centered health system. This plan](https://www.afro.who.int/fr/countries/chad/publication/plan-national-de-developpement-sanitaire-pnds-4-2022-2030#:~:text=PLAN%20NATIONAL%20DE%20DEVELOPPEMENT%20SANITAIRE%20(PNDS%204)%202022%2D2030,-Le%20Minist%C3%A8re%20de&text=Le%20PNDS4%20est%20le%20dernier,des%20Objectifs%20de%20D%C3%A9veloppement%20Durable.)
includes refugees and asylum seekers, ensuring their access to public health services on an equal basis with
nationals. Refugees and asylum-seekers are also incorporated into national, provincial, and departmental

R E F U G E E P O L I C Y R E V I E W F R A M E W O R K > **R E P U B L I C O F C H A D** 11

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Input:
productivity, which is the part of labour productivity coming from organisational and technological innovations, in a sample of U.S. states in the period 19602006. He finds that a 1 percentage point increase in the shares of immigrants raises labour productivity by 0.9% and TFP by 1.4%. These estimates are causal, as the author uses distance from the Mexican border and previous immigrant communities, which are both orthogonal to economic growth in host states.
What is further interesting, is firms in reaction to immigration adapt production technologies directed to workers without college education. This is consistent with the idea, that firms make workers more productive by adapting technologies to their skill sets. It is also important that these positive effects for productivity have been achieved despite immigrant inflow comprised less educated workers.

39

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Input:
RESETTLEMENT KEY FIGURES

**Submitted Cases**

1,063 4,497

**Cases** **Case Members**

**Active Cases**

986 4,219

**Case** **Case Members**

**Submitted Cases Member by**

**Country of Submission**

REGIONAL BUREAU FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA

**PERSONS OF CONCERN INVOLVED IN RESETTLEMENT IN SOUTHERN AFRICA**

As of 30 September 2022

MOVEMENTS OF GROUPS OF 10 OR MORE RESETTLEMENT CASE MEMBERS

**Country of Origin** **Country of Submission** **Country of Resettlement**

MAP OF THE DEPARTURES BY COUNTRY OF SUBMISSION

**Departure Cases**

337 2,067

**Case** **Case Members**

**Quota**

6,483 69%

**Allotcated Quota** **% of Submission vs Quota**

**Balance (Quota/Submission) :** 1,986

**Departure Cases by Age and Gender**

**ZAM**

**MLW**

**RSA**

**ZIM**

**MOZ**

**ANG**

**BOT**

**NAM**

**COB**

**COD**

**USA**

**SWE**

**NZL**

**FIN**

**NOR**

**CAN**

**AUL**

**FRA**

**493**

**303**

**205**

**28**

**27**

**13**

**11**

4%

9%

9%

26%

0%

0-4

5-11

12-17

18-59

60+

3%

12%

9%

1%

26%

**Submitted Cases Members**

**by Top 10 Country of Asylum**

**MLW**

**ZAM**

**3,417**

**1,438**

**1,367**

**Departure Cases Members**

**by Top 10 Country of Asylum**

**1,247**

**464**

**169**

**122**

**16**

**15**

**14**

**12**

**2**

**2**

**RSA**

**ZIM**

**NAM**

**BOT**

**MOZ**

**MAD**

**519**

**487**

**355**

**157**

**96**

**36**

**Submitted Cases Members**

**by Top 10 Country of Origin**

**Departure Cases Members**

**by Top 10 Country of Origin**

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[Article 24 of the Asylum Law accords refugees a treatment as favourable as possible and, in any event,](https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2091861/645b938a4.pdf)
not less favourable than that accorded to aliens generally in the same circumstances, concerning the
acquisition of movable or immovable property, lease contracts and other associated rights. Article 67
of the [2023 Decree](https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2091861/645b938a4.pdf) adds that refugees lawfully staying in the country shall have the same treatment
as foreigners in general concerning that right. Article 29 of the Asylum Law also accords refugees
lawfully staying in Chad treatment as favourable as possible concerning housing which falls under
national legislation, or which is submitted to public control, and, in any event, not less favourable than
that accorded to aliens generally in the same circumstances. Article 71 of the 2023 Decree specifies
that refugees lawfully staying in Chad should be accorded the same treatment as foreigners in general
regarding housing subject to the laws and regulations in force. Key to note is that Article 61 of the 2023
Decree, specifically addressing local integration as a durable solution, specifies that the Government
prioritizes refugees’ right to access land and secure allocated land to achieve self-reliance.

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**SCENARIO 1** **SCENARIO 2** **SCENARIO 3** **SCENARIO 4**

**Low employment**

**conservative**

**productivity**

**High employment**

**conservative**

**productivity**

**Low employment**

**baseline**

**productivity**

**High employment**

**baseline**

**productivity**

The main impact of refugees is in growth of the economy. Refugees increase both supply as workers and entrepreneurs as well as demand as consumers. Increase in GDP is not directly proportional to the increase in population or employment.
Net benefits are lowered both due to a decrease in capital to labour ratio as well as an increase in competition on the labour market. Moreover, increase in demand in tight labour market conditions results in higher inflation and lower price competitiveness of Polish products which lower its overall positive impact.
Nevertheless, the positive impact of refugees on the economy is significant in every scenario considered.

In 2022 it amounts to real GDP being higher by 0.5-0.8% and in 2023 cumulatively by 0.7-1.1%.
This corresponds to GDP being higher by 24-36.9 billion PLN in 2023 [43] .

In the long term, total potential GDP should be higher by around 0.9-1.35% due to refugees contributions. [44]

---
[44] Note that long term refers to the time when the economy fully adjusts with no additional shocks. We do not model the current refugees from Ukraine

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In response to the recent arrival from Sudan from mid-April 2023 to the present, humanitarian agencies
acted swiftly to support the government’s request. They coordinated a comprehensive, multisectoral
humanitarian response on the ground under the Refugee Coordination Model previously used during
the inflow of refugees from Cameroon and Central African Republic. This involved establishing sectoral
groups to ensure a consistent and comprehensive approach. While development actors were not directly
engaged in formulating and financing emergency plans, they received regular updates on the implemented
responses by CNARR and UNHCR.

R E F U G E E P O L I C Y R E V I E W F R A M E W O R K > **R E P U B L I C O F C H A D** 3

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Input:
reach the north of the continent through the Darien jungle or Europe through the French Guyana.
In this context, Brazil plays a crucial regional role and has the potential to offer effective legal and
socio-economic integration opportunities for displaced populations, which will contribute to the
reduction of secondary movements.

To this end, the Government is set to launch Brazil's first National Policy on Migration, Asylum and
Statelessness. Developed through an extensive participatory process involving concerned
populations, the policy aims to streamline access to rights and services at federal, state, and
municipal levels. This will support the effective reception and integration of these populations into
the Brazilian society. Additionally, the Government has also adopted a Plan of Action to address
the protection and integration challenges faced by the Haitian population.

Moreover, Brazil is launching a Resettlement, Admission, and Humanitarian Reception Program
for Afghan refugees through Complementary Means and Community Sponsorship. Authorities,
with the active support of UNHCR, are now developing Standard Operating Procedures for its
implementation, and planning ways to identify and train the civil society organizations who will be
responsible to receive these refugees in Brazil and support them in their local integration journey.

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Two theories have been put forward in the literature to explain this:

**01.** Immigrants and natives differ in terms
of skills, occupational experiences, contact networks and work tasks.
Hence, they are not in direct competition. Typically, immigrants take on tasks previously performed by natives, who move to higher-valueadded tasks in the process known as “ **occupational upgrading** ” (Beerli and Peri, 2018; Tabellini, 2020; Cattaneo et al., 2015; Foged and Peri, 2016; D’Amuri i Peri, 2014; Ortega and Verdugo, 2014; Peri and Sparber, 2009).

Tritah (2015) found that a 1 percentage point increase in the rate of immigration increased GDP per capita growth by 0.3 percentage point in a sample of 20 developed OECD countries during the 1960–2005 period. Peri (2012) in a seminal paper, estimates that a 1 pp increase in the immigrant share raises labour productivity by 0.9% and TFP by 1.4%, using a sample of U.S. states from 1960 to 2006.

37

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Input:
In
 2012
 the
 programme
 expanded
 to
 cover
 capacity
 building
 of
 government
 officials
 and
other
 partners
 in
 relation
 to
 IDP
 and
 refugee
 protection
 and
 the
 role
 and
 mandate
 of
UNHCR.
 Additionally,
 support
 has
 been
 provided
 by
 UNHCR
 to
 the
 Moe
 Pwint
 Operation
through
 a
 pilot
 project
 as
 well
 as
 the
 production
 of
 leaflets
 in
 the
 local
 language
 to
increase
 the
 Ministry
 of
 Immigration
 efforts
 in
 enhancing
 awareness
 of
 the
 Operation
within
 the
 communities.

5
 TBC
 2012,
 see
 note
 3
 above.

6

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**2.3** **Institutional framework for refugee management and coordination**

According to Article 38 of the [2020 Asylum Law, the institutional framework for the protection of asylum-](https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2091861/645b938a4.pdf)
seekers and refugees remains defined by [Decret n°839/PR/PM/MAT/2011, which establishes CNARR. In](https://www.refworld.org/pdfid/609efe754.pdf)
essence, the introduction of the new asylum legislation in Chad has not altered the institutional framework for
asylum. This legal reform has codified existing practices and brought clarity to the implementation of Decree
No. 11-839, which outlines the creation, organization and responsibilities of CNARR.

In practice, CNARR, which still operates under the Ministry of Public Security, Territorial Administration and
Local Governance (MSPARGL), remains responsible for coordinating the implementation of legal provisions

R E F U G E E P O L I C Y R E V I E W F R A M E W O R K > **R E P U B L I C O F C H A D** 5

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**1 Introduction**

The mining sector in Africa is growing rapidly and is the main recipient of foreign direct

investment (World Bank 2011). The welfare effects of this sector are not well understood,

although a literature has recently developed around this question. The main contribution of this

paper is to shed light on the welfare effects of gold mining in a detailed, in-depth country study

of Ghana, a country with a long tradition of gold mining and a recent, large expansion in capital

intensive and industrial-scale production.

A second contribution of this paper is to show the importance of decomposing the effects with

respect to distance from the mines. Given the spatial heterogeneity of the results, we explore

the effects in an individual-level, difference-in-differences analysis by using spatial lag models

to allow for nonlinear effects with distance from mine. We also allow for spillovers across

districts, in a district-level analysis. We use two complementary geocoded household data sets

to analyze outcomes in Ghana: the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) and the Ghana

Living Standard Survey (GLSS), which provide information on a wide range of welfare

outcomes.

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Input:
IT specialists and executives), and 28% of Polish citizens. Their shares increased in the past two years by 3 pp. among Ukrainian refugees and pre-war Ukrainians, 2 pp. among other foreigners, and 1 pp.
among Polish citizens – this data shows that though Ukrainian refugees may be largely employed in the less attractive occupational groups, they are also the fastest to progress toward more attractive professions. [11]

**Ukrainian refugees in Poland have**

**clearly improved their economic**

**situation over the past year.** As
indicated in chapter 1, the share of Ukrainian refugee household incomes derived from work in Poland has increased from 74% in the July-August 2023 MSNA survey to 76% in the May-June 2024 SEIS survey. [7] This is not surprising, as the situation of Ukrainians in the Polish labour market has clearly improved. First, employment rate of working-age refugees

---
[11] Since 2021, ZUS has been requesting information about the occupation of non-agricultural workers who first join the social insurance system (most farmers have a

July-August 2023 MSNA survey
May-June 2024 SEIS survey
SEIS survey
MSNA survey

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While Article 28 of the Asylum Law permits refugees also to engage in self-employment, the lack of legally
recognized refugee identity cards is likely to remain a major obstacle to meeting administrative requirements
to open a business and pay the necessary tax.

Information on the number of refugees owning businesses is also lacking.

**3.3** **Land, housing, and property rights**

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Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, the number of Ukrainian workers covered by social security insurance in Poland increased by 126 thousand. The true increase of insured refugees however is larger.
By checking previous insurance status, ZUS identified 228 thousand newly registered insured persons active on 31st March 2023. [31] Considering the number of Ukrainians with active PESEL UKR at the time, this would yield an employment rate of 43%. As this number does not take into account jobs not covered by social insurance and informal work, this can align with the over 60% employment rate noted in the surveys. This number does not take into account over 500 thousand Ukrainians that were paying social security contributions before the beginning of the full-scale war and remained in Poland after its outbreak.

The refugees present in Poland, while not without difficulties, are largely able to provide for themselves and their families. As reported in the Deloitte

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Shock to labour supply was calibrated to match data of working Ukrainians presented in chapter 2. As we didn’t have data of number of unemployed refugees, we calibrated it that an increase in the number of workers due to an increase in labour supply matched employment data in two variants: lower (around 225 thou.) and higher employment (around 350 thou.).
Total increase in labour supply in Poland was balanced by equal decrease of labour supply in Eastern Europe.

Shock to propensity to save was calculated in two steps. First and foremost, it was assumed that due to their precarious life situation refugees won’t save any income.
As such shock was set to match shock for the population [54] . Additionally, to account for spending of savings from Ukraine, data from the National Bank of Ukraine on cash withdrawals and retail transactions from Ukrainian bank cards in Poland was used [55] and then calibrated to data for private consumption in Poland. Additionally, the same data was used to calibrate the negative shock to investment in Eastern Europe.

retail transactions from Ukrainian bank cards

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Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

## **4.** Ukrainian refugees’ skill-job mismatch

##### The disparity between education levels and the jobs performed by Ukrainian refugees indicates their significant over-qualification in comparison to Polish citizens (4.1). Widespread occupational licensing presents an obstacle to efficient use of Ukrainian refugees’ human capital, who – in comparison to Polish citizens – rarely work in regulated professions (4.2). The higher the level of Polish language competence, the higher the wage premium. Older refugees, those who have been in Poland for a shorter period of time or have below tertiary education tend to have poorer language skills (4.3). Refugees who back in Ukraine managed the household or were not employed, remain underemployed in Poland (4.4). Key factors to enhancing the status of Ukrainian refugees in Poland will be language courses, including advanced levels tailored for professionals, easing of occupational licensing restrictions, particularly those based solely on citizenship, and implementation of active labour market policies to help specific groups enter the workforce (4.5).

26

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UNHCR facilitates voluntary repatriation for refugees and asylum seekers who request to return to
their countries of origin, with arrangements often made in close cooperation with IOM through its
Assisted Voluntary Return (AVR) program. During the course of 2023, 95 refugees voluntarily
repatriated from Indonesia, primarily to Sri Lanka and Iraq. Voluntary repatriation is impacted by
ongoing conflicts and human rights violations in countries of origin, which renders many unable to
safely return home and limits interest in repatriation.

UNHCR / 1 November 2024 6

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Input:
THE ROLE OF HOUSING SUPPORT AND EMPLOYMENT FACILITATION IN ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY OF REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE (selling house or land, using degrading sources of income, taking on high-risk or illegal jobs) and crisis-level (reducing essential health and education expenditures, selling productive assets) coping strategies. This statistic is even worse for those that fall below the poverty line [8], standing at 10% and 18% respectively. Female-led households (where all adult members are female) report having to engage in harmful coping strategies more often than their male-led counterparts.

**SHARE OF REFUGEE HOUSEHOLDS ADOPTING HARMFUL**

**COPING STRATEGIES ABOVE AND BELOW THE POVERTY**

**LINE, %** **[1]**

Above the poverty line Below the poverty line 10% 10% housing fully subsidized by the government (notably, in Slovakia this share stands at 81%). Eight percent are being hosted free of charge by locals.
Seventeen percent pay for rent only partially for various reasons, such as living with extended family, partially subsidized by the host government or employer. Those that fully pay rent report this being their number one expense, constituting 40% of the total household budget.

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Input:
In terms of economic impact, refugees are treated as a subset of all immigrants.
Economic literature typically categorises immigrants by their country of birth, regardless of their legal status. Although refugees seek new homes out of necessity rather than for economic opportunity, economic research focuses on their employment rates and other measures of labour market integration, which are usually lower than those of other immigrants and natives (Brell et al., 2020).
In this respect, Ukrainian refugees in Poland resemble other immigrants and natives more closely than usual.

This appendix outlines a revised **Deloitte**

**D.Climate** general equilibrium modelling
strategy compared to the previous Deloitte (2024) report, accounting for the impact of Ukrainian refugees on productivity.
Over the past two decades, research by academic economists has shown that viewing immigration solely through the lens of supply and demand severely constrains our understanding of the process (Peri, 2016). Such a model suggests that immigration increases economic output 36

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Input:
Refugees (2023) Refugees (2024) Hosts (2023) Overall Male Female With severe psychological distress With a disability Source: Survey data, SAG estimates 64% 67% 63% 57% 86% 96% 92% 72% 49% Technical or Bachelor's Master's Doctoral Vocational 30% Lower secondary or below Source: Survey data, SAG estimates

**11**

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Input:
particularly when they are at risk of refoulement, arrest, and detention.

### **Financial Assistance**

UNHCR assists a small number of extremely vulnerable refugees and asylum seekers with cash support
to help meet basic needs. Together with partners, UNHCR conducts a socio-economic assessment of
cases that have been identified as requiring financial assistance. Those cases that have heightened
needs are presented to a Socio-Economic and Health Panel (comprised of YCWS, JRS, and UNHCR) for
a determination of inclusion in the cash program. Those who qualify receive up to six months of cash
assistance, following which a re-assessment is required to determine continued needs.

### **Economic Empowerment**

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Input:
_UNHCR
 Discussion
 Paper
 –15
 June
 2013_

- Contribute
 to
 the
 CTFMR
 efforts
 in
 documenting,
 verifying,
 reporting
 and
responding
 to
 grave
 child
 rights
 violations,
 including
 recruiting
 and
 using
children
 in
 armed
 conflict.

- Conduct
 multi-‐sector
 baseline
 assessments
 and
 identify
 proxy
 indicators
 for
 self-‐
reliance;
 establish
 monitoring
 and
 evaluation
 system
 in
 order
 to
 track
 progress
made
 on
 key
 indicators
 over
 the
 framework
 period.

- Support
 and
 participate
 to
 multi-‐sector
 need
 assessments
 and
 planning
 process,
in
 particular
 in
 areas
 of
 current
 or
 potential
 return.

- Provide
 an
 initial
 light
 rapid
 response
 to
 spontaneous
 IDP
 and
 refugee
returnees,
 identified
 through
 returnee
 monitoring,
 by
 providing
 NFIs
 and
relevant
 protection
 interventions
 on
 a
 needs
 basis,
 as
 well
 as
 community-‐based
assistance
 to
 receiving
 communities,
 with
 a
 view
 to
 building
 confidence
 in
 the
return
 process.

- Advocate
 with
 Government,
 donors
 and
 private
 sector
 in
 regard
 to
 rehabilitation
of
 main
 roads
 to
 key
 potential
 returnee
 areas
 and
 establishment
 of
 facilities
 that
could
 eventually
 support
 an
 organised
 return.

**10.2.** **Phase
 2:
 Expansion
 of
 integrated
 support
 to
 spontaneous
 returnees**

**and
 their
 communities**

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Input:
Refugees are vulnerable and at risk of poor health outcomes due to disruptions in access to health care in their country of origin, experiences during their journey, and challenges in settling in a new country. For the Ukrainian refugee population, predominantly comprised of women, children and older persons, access to primary health care services, including mental health and psychosocial support, child health and nutrition, sexual and reproductive health, non-communicable diseases (NCDs), rehabilitation and health education to increase health literacy and empower health decision-making, is critical. Among older persons, NCDs are most prevalent, necessitating uninterrupted access to care for managing illnesses.
Communicable diseases are a concern as the movement of refugees in and out of host countries disrupts access to disease prevention, detection and treatment programmes, increasing the health risks.

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Input:
**POPULATION PYRAMID**

Female Male 60+ years old 35-59 18-34 5-17 0-4 (N=19,803) 9% 25% 14% 13% 14% 3% 4% 9% 7% 3% In terms of other demographic characteristics, 6% of individuals self-reported a disability (1,435 individuals out of a sample of 18,679). Among the countries surveyed, Estonia, Hungary, and Poland reported the lowest percentage of refugees with disabilities at 5%, while Romania reported the highest at 12%.

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Input:
As per a recent assessment conducted in 21 Brazilian states, 15% of Venezuelan refugees and
migrants reported having suffered discrimination and stigmatization in the previous 12 months.
Out of these, 80.4% were discriminated because of their nationality, 8.2% for their ethnicity, 5.2%
for their age, 3.5% for having a disability and 2.4% due to their sexual orientation and gender
identity. [9] On the other hand, according to the same source, 33% of indigenous Venezuelans
experienced discrimination and stigmatization, mainly due to their nationality (51.1%) but also for
their ethnicity (31.9%), and to a smaller degree because of their age (6.3%). [10] This overlapping of
discrimination causes not only affects the ability of these populations to access dignified
livelihoods, but also to exercise their fundamental rights, such as access to health and education.

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Input:
By refraining from any refugee dispersal policies, Poland and other EU Member States may have improved labour market inclusion. In many European countries refugees are geographically dispersed after arrival to spread the cost of hosting them, ease the stress on the housing market and public services, and to avoid creating ethnic enclaves. The effects, however, can be detrimental to labour market inclusion and may be contrary to other aims of the policy. Dispersal pushes at least some of the refugees into regions with weak labour markets and few co-nationals already settled, who otherwise could transmit important information about employment opportunities. Fasani, Frattini, and Minale (2022) conducted the first cross-country study of refugee dispersal policies.
Their LFS sample covers refugees who experienced dispersal policies in Finland, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK (no data for Denmark). They find that non-EU15 refugees aged 25-64 who arrived when a dispersal policy was in place experience 4.5 percentage points lower employment rates than for those not exposed to such a policy. This may understate the effect, as for refugees who arrived 10 or less years before the survey, the effect is 17.5 percentage points, while it becomes statistically insignificant afterwards.
For the six countries for which data on residence is available, non-dispersed refugees show clearly stronger clustering in economically stronger regions (measured by GDP per capita).

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Input:
this tool. This meeting marked the first

under the leadership of the new cluster

coordinator.

For more information request the

meeting minutes for any cluster member.

**12**

**XVIII. Second Allocation for Ven-**

**ezuela Humanitarian Fund (VHF)**

**The call for proposals for the second**

**allocation of the Venezuela Human-**

**itarian Fund (VHF) was opened on**

**October 13th closing on November**

**6th.** This allocation focuses on "Multisec
toral assistance for the improvement of

essential health services, strengthening

community resilience through livelihood

support, gender equality and women's

empowerment, supporting emergency

education activities, and the provision

of assistance and protection services

in complementarity with CERF funds in

13 municipalities across 5 border states:

Bolivar, Delta Amacuro, Falcon, Sucre,

and Zulia." The three key prioritized

areas encompass enhancing essential

health services (Mental Health and Psy
chosocial Support (MHPSS), Women's

and Adolescents Health, and Sexual &

ducted in 16 states, with the collaborative

efforts of 9 partner organizations. This tool

provides valuable insights into the evolving

protection landscape and aids in tailoring

responses to the specific needs of affected

populations.

_© FPM/ Franco Chramosta (2023)_

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Input:
of refugees from Ukraine find themselves of all refugee households income above of refugees are unemployed, which

**below the poverty line** [4] based on the poverty line **comes from regular work** **starkly contrasts with just a 3%**
reported income - this figure stands at 35% for households **unemployment rate for host country** below the poverty line **nationals**

# 32% 56% 14%

of refugees live below the poverty if is the labor force participation rate of of refugee youth is not engaged in

**support with accommodation expenses** refugees from Ukraine, which is **on par** employment, education, or training, which
is factored in as an indirect income source **with host country nationals** is **comparable to host country national** of all refugee households income above the poverty line **comes from regular work**

- this figure stands at 35% for households
below the poverty line is the labor force participation rate of refugees from Ukraine, which is **on par**

**with host country nationals**

of refugee youth is not engaged in employment, education, or training, which is **comparable to host country national**

**statistics**

---
[4] Defined as 50% of the median equivalized income in the host country

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Input:
### Call(s) to Action

The Brazilian state is commendably recognized for its efforts in providing protection to refugees
and other forcibly displaced populations, in line with international, regional, and national legal
frameworks. Brazil stands as a beacon of hope for refugees in the region, demonstrating exemplary
commitment and leadership in humanitarian response, and striving to go ensure the successful
local integration of displaced individuals.

UNHCR calls upon the international community to boost the support for Brazilian authorities by
increasing financial and technical assistance to UNHCR and other humanitarian actors. This
support is crucial for sustaining and expanding Brazil’s protection and assistance programs,
ensuring the rights and needs of refugees and other forcibly displaced people are met, and Brazil’s
exemplary efforts in this field are fully supported and sustained.

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Input:
HIGH EMPLOYMENT RATES, BUT LOW WAGES: A POVERTY ASSESSMENT OF UKRAINIAN REFUGEES IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES

**Refugee employment rates significantly improved in 2024, moving closer to national levels**

Ukrainian refugee employment rates [14] have experienced a sizeable increase from 2023 in most countries, rising by 9 percentage points year-over-year at the regional level to 64%. This indicator now stands just 7 percentage points below the equivalently weighted mean for the host population (71%).

Refugee employment grew both owing to a decrease in unemployment, which declined to 9% from 13% last year, as well as new individuals coming into the labor force [15] . In fact, the 2024 labor force participation rate amounted to 70%, which stands almost in line with the equivalent host country indicator of 73%.

**EVOLUTION OF THE REFUGEE EMPLOYMENT RATE FROM 2023 TO 2024**

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Employment Decrease in Decrease in rate 2023 unemployment potential labor force Employment rate 2024 Unclear labor force status Expansion of the labor force Note: Only includes data from the 7 countries surveyed in both rounds (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Republic of Moldova, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia) Source: Survey data, SAG estimates

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Input:
**in the literature is language training.**
Foged et al. (2024) analysed labour market outcomes of language training, placement in strong labour markets, active labour market policies, cutting welfare benefits, and placement in co-ethnic networks that were directed at refugees in Denmark.
Thanks to unusually detailed Danish data, they could follow individual refugees who arrived in Denmark between 1987 and 2008, for at least 10 years, and in most cases for 15 years. They found intensive language training introduced in 1999 to be the most effective of all policies, accounting for a 5-6 pp. increase in the probability of employment and a USD 3,000 increase in annual earnings (2015 figures). While locating refugees in strong labour markets also had considerable positive effects, the report found only some evidence that Active Labour Market Policies (ALMPs) focused on matching refugees with deficit occupations improved their employment prospects and no evidence of positive effects of cutting benefits or placing refugees in co-ethnic networks. Heller and Mumma (2023) exploited randomized enrolment lotteries for a publicly-funded

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Input:
Source: Deloitte own elaboration based on GUS and ZUS data, as well as data for instrumental variables from Public Employment Services Portal and Open Data governmental portal. OLS is the standard Ordinary Least Squares model, IV are Instrumental Variables Two Stage Least Squares models with instrumental variables of the share of Ukrainian pupils in Polish schools, distribution of Ukrainians from declarations on entrusting work to a foreigner in Poland in 2019, or both. For details see the Online Technical Appendix.

Furthermore, consistent with a positive productivity shock, Polish citizens have been moving to better-paid occupations – as predicted by the theory of occupational upgrading (e.g., Beerli and Peri, 2018; Foged and Peri, 2016; Peri and Sparber, 2009).
Deloitte has acquired quarterly data on the occupational groups of Polish citizens who are insured with ZUS from Q1 2022 to Q2 2024. This data is not exhaustive as ZUS only began requiring such information in

GUS and ZUS data
Public Employment Services Portal
Open Data governmental portal
GUS

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Input:
In this scenario, 19% of Venezuelan households reported being at risk of evictions from rented
housing in the three months prior to their interview, with a higher incidence in Roraima (26%) and
Amazonas (29%), the two states hosting the highest proportion of refugees and other forcibly
displaced people in Brazil. As per the same study, 10% of the indigenous households surveyed
were evicted during the three months prior to the interview, which makes them almost five times
more likely to face actual eviction when compared to the total surveyed population (2%). [24] The
risk of eviction has been also systematically reported by refugees also of other nationalities,
including Haitians, Colombians, and Cubans. [25]

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Input:
Data sources: UNHCR PRIMES, UNHCR Resettlement Statistics Report.   For more information or to contribute, please contact UNHCR RBSA DIMA (rsarbdima@unhc

**1,729**

**154**

**57**

**53**

**34**

**13**

**12**

**4**

**3**

**2**

**COD**

**BDI**

**SOM**

**RWA**

**TUR**

**ZAM**

**ETH**

**UGA**

**ANG**

**AFG**

**COD**

**BDI**

**SOM**

**RWA**

**ETH**

**PAK**

**TUR**

**CAR**

**BOT**

**ERT**

**3,619**

**263**

**235**

**220**

**40**

**36**

**19**

**14**

**8**

**8**

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Input:
### **Access to Territory**

In 2023 and 2024, boats carrying nearly 3,000 Rohingya refugees (the majority of whom are women
and children) have landed in Aceh and North Sumatra, Indonesia. According to information provided
to UNHCR by the new arrivals, the increase in the number of individuals undertaking the sea journey
has been driven by a number of factors, including increasing insecurity in the camps in Bangladesh; a
decrease in the cost of the sea journey; continued instability in Myanmar; and a lack of progress in
creating conditions that would enable return to Myanmar, including addressing the root causes of
Rohingya displacement.

While many Indonesians remain supportive of and sympathetic to the challenges facing Rohingya
refugees, the most recent boat arrivals have met unprecedented resistance in Indonesia. Some boats
were initially prevented from disembarking, many refugees were forced to relocate several times due
rejection from local communities, and many of those who have disembarked have yet to be allocated
an adequate shelter by Indonesian authorities. As a result, hundreds of refugees who have
disembarked in recent months are currently living in extremely perilous, overcrowded, and
substandard conditions in which the protection and assistance response remained a challenge.

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Input:
Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland much of the heterogeneity inside of these groups. Every two years, GUS publishes information about the average wages in 128 occupational groups, with the latest data for October 2022 (GUS, 2024a).
When ZUS data is aggregated into these occupational groups with the assumption that wage structure remains the same as in October 2022, the rate at which Ukrainian

**The occupational progress of**

**Ukrainian refugees as compared to the**

**host population may be faster than**

**the nine main occupational groups**

**above suggest.** What is particularly
striking is the similar pace of progress of Ukrainian refugees and pre-war Ukrainians in the nine main occupational groups presented above. However, it conceals

**Chart 12. Ukrainian refugee wages relative to Polish citizens in the same employee-cells**
Employee cells are divided by poviat, sex, age group, and main occupational group 20 2022 Q2 2024 Q2

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Input:
work in mining, and insignificantly less in agriculture or service and sales. The likelihood that

a man works in mining increases by 11.3 to 12.6 percentage points, which is more than a 400

percent increase in likelihood from the mean value which is 2.8%. For both men and women,

the results are indicative of changes in labor force participation on the extensive and intensive

margin. Fewer people work, as indicated by columns (1) and (2) (significant for men), but those

who work, work more hours than before (column 3, albeit insignificant). It should be noted that

the sample sizes are limited and these estimates may suffer from lack of power.

Annex figure 2 presents the results graphically and shows the spatial structure for a subset of

the variables. The likelihood of a woman working in services decreases with distance from

mine, and log wages are higher within 10 to 20 km of an active mine. Men are, intuitively, more

likely to work as miners if they reside close to an active mine, and the correlation decreases

with distance. Wages for men are also higher close to active mines (panel D). Beyond 40 km,

the estimated effects are close to zero.

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Input:
Indonesia is host to a relatively small number of refugees and asylum seekers, but they reside over a
wide geographical area in a country of over 17,000 islands. While approximately half of the refugee
population lives in Jakarta and the surrounding areas, the other half is spread throughout the
archipelago. The UNHCR operation in Indonesia is a small one, both in terms of staffing and resources,
and the distribution of refugees across this large territory, coupled with complex protection concerns
and emergency boat arrivals, creates unique operational challenges. UNHCR continually strives to
prioritize efforts and resources to be as impactful as possible in supporting refugees who are most in
need and in advancing a sustainable protection environment in the country.

UNHCR / 1 November 2024 8

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Input:
The effects on child health are, however, not all positive. We note, particularly, a statistically

significant decrease in weight-for-age, but the other two measures are also negative (panel B of

22

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Input:
Individuals
 and
 families
 often
 have
 no
 means
 to
 retain
 legal
 services
 and
 are
 often
unaware
 of
 their
 rights
 to
 seek
 legal
 remedies
 under
 Myanmar
 law.
 Services,
 security
and
 the
 rule
 of
 law
 are
 weak,
 and
 effective
 protection
 and
 response
 mechanisms
 to
address
 sexual
 and
 gender-‐based
 violence
 (SGBV)
 or
 the
 specific
 needs
 of
 extremely
vulnerable
 individuals
 (EVIs),
 are
 still
 rudimentary
 with
 a
 lack
 of
 appropriate
 core
mechanisms
 and
 services
 available.

Cases
 of
 arbitrary
 arrest
 and
 detention
 in
 Myanmar
 continue
 to
 be
 reported.
 Pervasive
problems
 with
 the
 rule
 of
 law
 in
 Myanmar
 are
 well
 documented
 and
 detention
 and
prison
 conditions
 remain
 extremely
 problematic.

In
 addition,
 under
 the
 1947
 Immigration
 (Emergency
 Provisions)
 Act
 (as
 amended),
illegal
 departure
 or
 entry
 is
 punishable
 by
 a
 fine
 or
 imprisonment
 of
 up
 to
 five
 years.
UNHCR
 is
 not
 aware
 of
 any
 prosecutions
 brought
 under
 this
 law,
 and
 the
 President
 has
also
 stated
 publically
 that
 he
 welcomes
 back
 Myanmar
 people
 who
 ‘for
 various
 reasons’
left
 the
 country.
 However
 there
 have
 not
 been
 any
 changes
 or
 amnesties
 pronounced
 in
relation
 to
 this
 law,
 and
 this
 would
 therefore
 need
 to
 be
 addressed
 prior
 to
 any
 organised
voluntary
 repatriation
 of
 refugees.

**2.3.
 Socio-‐economic
 environment**

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Input:
The
 health
 infrastructure
 in
 the
 South-‐East
 remains
 substantially
 underserved
 with
 a

Committee.
 The
 Myanmar
 Peace
 Centre
 is
 tasked
 to
 provide
 policy
 advice
 and
 strategic
 guidance
 as
 well
 as
co-‐ordinating
 Government
 activities
 in
 the
 key
 areas
 of:
 cease-‐fire
 negotiations
 and
 implementation;
 peace
negotiations
 and
 political
 dialogue;
 co-‐ordination
 of
 assistance
 in
 conflict
 affected
 areas
 and
 outreach
 and
public
 diplomacy.

4

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Input:
This paper is a product of the Office of the Chief Economist, Africa Region. It is part of a larger effort by the World
Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world.
Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The authors may be contacted
at andreas.kotsadam@econ.uio.no, anja.tolonen@economics.gu.se, and pchuhan@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development_
_issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the_
_names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those_
_of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and_
_its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._

Produced by the Research Support Team

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Input:
**02.** Firms recognise changes in the
abundance of skills in the labour force resulting from immigration and adjust their production technologies accordingly. They thereby increase the productivity of these skill groups and themselves (Peri, 2016; Lewis and Peri, 2015; Lewis, 2013; Peri, 2012). This theory is called “ **directed technical**

**change** ” by Acemoglu (2002). Firms
adopt production technologies that favour skills that have become abundant (and thus cheaper) in the labour force. This increases their productivity and offsets the negative effects of competition between workers. In the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries, firms in English cities engaged in unskilled technical change in response to an influx of unskilled workers from the countryside and Ireland. In the postwar United States of the twentieth century, skilled technical change occurred as the proportion of collegeeducated workers grew rapidly.

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Input:
Our results are consistent with the previous, similar studies. In estimating GDP impacts we take an approach that is most similar to the previous studies of the pre-2022 Ukrainian migrants by NBP economists (Gradzewicz, Jabłonowski, Sasiela, and Żółkiewski, 2021; Strzelecki, Growiec, and Wyszyński, 2022), but unlike the previous Oxford Economics and ours impact estimates of Ukrainian refugees (Urban, 2022; Deloitte, 2022) we do not allow for the possibility of a positive productivity shock, because there is little data to credibly estimate its size. Below, we summarise impacts yielded by these studies. As studies were done under different assumptions on the number of 41 Aggregate region in model consisting of Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, Moldova, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria.
42 In other words it was assumed that money that would be spent e.g. through credit action for investments in Eastern Europe were spent for consumption in Poland.

34 43 Data from forecast of Ministry of Finance from October 2023, [Wytyczne dotyczące wskaźników makroekonomicznych - Ministerstwo Finansów - Portal](https://www.gov.pl/web/finanse/wytyczne-sytuacja-makroekonomiczna)
[Gov.pl (www.gov.pl).](https://www.gov.pl/web/finanse/wytyczne-sytuacja-makroekonomiczna)

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Input:
been of 33 % of the funding requested.

According to the 345W reports, 478K

people were impacted until october, which

65% are women and 35% men. 6,479

people with disabilities were reached

during the last period.

**violence**

The states with the higher response

include Tachira, Zulia, Bolivar, and

Miranda. Some of the organizations with

the higher reach include ACNUR, DIOCE
SIS SC, CODEHCIU, HIAS, ALIADAS EN

CADENA A.C, TINTA VIOLETA and CAR
ITAS.

**Figure 1. Summary of HRP 2022 - 2023 results, by Specific Objetive.**

**Responding**

**to protection**

47% **risks associated** 45%

**with violence of**

**GbV**

**children**

# 47 4

**Prevention,**

**mitigation, and**

13%

# 13

99%

# 99

**Figure 1. Summary of HRP 2022 - 2023 results, by Specific Objetive.**

**Responding to**

**protection risks**

**associated with**

47%

# 47

47%

**Responding**

**to protection**

**risks associated**

**with violence of**

45%

99%

**Access to legal**

**documentation***

45%

77% **Access to**

**livelihoods**

# 77

**children**

**Specialised**

**protection services**

_*Target does not consider birth certificates (EV-25)._

77%

**to people affected**

**Access to** 13%

**livelihoods**

**response to**

**protection risks**

**by all forms of**

36%

36%

# 3

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Input:
In order to compute refugee wages, household net employment income was divided by the total number of working hours reported by all employed members. This figure was then weighted by the total number of working hours and averaged overall all households within a given country (while also respecting poststratification weights). The result was then converted to a monthly wage assuming employment at 40 hours per week and 4.33 weeks in a month. For comparability with host population data, net wages were converted to their gross equivalent utilizing local tax regulations.

# **Limitations**

The statistical significance of the SEIS results is limited by the non-probabilistic selection of respondents.
Moreover, the use of convenience sampling likely led to a larger share of data being collected from more vulnerable households.

There was also a notably high non-response rate regarding questions related to income and expenditure, which likely resulted in non-response bias. The income module of the SEIS was also materially different from the one employed by the EU SILC and the Republic of Moldova’s Household Budget Survey, which may limit comparability of this data to that of host populations.

Republic of Moldova’s Household Budget Survey

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Input:
(1.805) (0.039) (0.054) (0.029) (0.021) (0.029) (0.021)
Active 0.007 0.001 0.050** 0.034** -0.032 0.054** -0.023
(1.012) (0.026) (0.024) (0.017) (0.021) (0.026) (0.022)

Observations 9,790 9,790 12,226 12,216 12,227 12,227 12,227
R-squared 0.128 0.180 0.453 0.148 0.208 0.171 0.095
mean of dep var 0.407 14.84 0.565 0.652 0.151 0.732 11.6

_Note:_ Robust standard errors clustered at the DHS cluster level in parentheses. All regressions control for year and
district fixed effects, urban dummy, age, and years of education. Active is active status of mine in the survey year.

*** p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1. OLS = ordinary least squares.

Overall, we estimated in table 8 that a household’s access to electricity decreased when a mine

became active. This finding is surprising if we assume that electricity infrastructure is seldom

destroyed, so that with time, access has generally been increasing. [13]

Figure A1 (Annex) further decomposes the effect, and panel Aa of the figure confirms that the

coefficient for electricity access is negative using the treatment distance 20 km. However, with

a treatment distance of 10 km, the effect is marginally positive and insignificant. If we use a

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Refugees are not legally permitted to work in Indonesia. UNHCR advocates for refugees to be given
access to livelihoods opportunities and works with partners to create community empowerment and
self-reliance programs that benefit Indonesians and refugees. These programs include vocational
trainings and entrepreneurships that also promote economic development in Indonesia. At the first
Global Refugee Forum (GRF) in December 2019, the Indonesian Government pledged support to
refugee productivity and empowerment activities. This commitment was confirmed in the second
Global Refugee Forum in December 2023. In September 2023, the Ministry of Manpower issued a
Circular Note allowing refugee participation in skills training programs at government training centers.
The Circular and GRF commitment serve as pivotal entry points to advance economic empowerment.

### **Education**

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**employed before their displacement.**
In the SEIS survey, employment rates among refugees aged 18-64 previously employed or self-employed in Ukraine, are 81% and 91% respectively. That is already very high and any further increase would be marginal. On the other hand, those who back in Ukraine managed the household have an employment rate in Poland of 38%. Even before becoming refugees, they would have required support to enter the workforce and now, in the host country, they would be likely to benefit from such help even more. Some of them may be discouraged by not having been able to find a job, others may be marginally attached workers who fell outside the labour force, but have some desire and ability to return to work.

**Chart 25. Ukrainian refugees’ employment rate in the 18-64 age group by previous**

**status in Ukraine**

91% Household Others Studying Employed Self-employed responsibilities Source: Deloitte own elaboration based on SEIS UNHCR survey conducted in May and June 2024.

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Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

# Glossary List of charts and tables

Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

**GUS** - Główny Urząd Statystyczny, Polish statistical office, also known as Statistics Poland.

**LFS** - Labour Force Survey, Eurostat labour market survey conducted by national statistical offices.

**MSNA** - Multi-Sector Needs Assessment, a 2023 UNHCR survey of refugees from Ukraine.

**PESEL/PESEL UKR** - Powszechny Elektroniczny System Ewidencji Ludności, Universal Electronic System for Registration of the Population.
An ID number of every Polish citizen. **PESEL UKR** is a version issued to Ukrainian citizens in connection with the armed conflict in the territory of that country.

**Poviat** - a middle tier of sub-central government in Poland between voivodship (province) and gmina (commune) level.

**Pre-war Ukrainian migrants** - persons who migrated from Ukraine, primarily for economic reasons, before the full-scale Russian
invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

**SEIS** - Socio-Economic Inclusion Survey, a 2024 UNHCR survey of refugees from Ukraine as a follow-up to MSNA from the year before.

**Ukrainian refugees** - persons fleeing Ukraine after the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, covered by EU's Temporary
Protection Directive.

Multi-Sector Needs Assessment
Socio-Economic Inclusion Survey
MSNA
SEIS
LFS

Labour Force Survey, Eurostat labour market survey

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employment, and unemployment rate of natives or other immigrants, except an actual slight positive impact on the wages of native women.
Despite our conservative approach, additional government tax revenues trump the costs of refugee-connected expenditure.
A larger wage pool, higher private consumption, and influx of capital from abroad result in larger tax revenue. In total, the general government revenue increased by 1.05-1.45% in 2023. In monetary terms, this amounts to 10.1-13.7 billion PLN in 2022 and 14.7-19.9 billion PLN in 2023.
If estimates quoted by a government official [2] of public expenses on refugees of around 15 billion PLN in 2022 and 5 billion in 2023 are accurate, we can conclude that they were more than offset by the additional tax revenue. In the long term, refugees should increase yearly government revenue by around 0.85-1.3%.

---
[2] E.g. vice-president of Polish Development Found Bartosz Marczuk estimated it at around 16 billion PLN, but this estimation also included spending of NGOs

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The government quickly granted refugees from Ukraine access to the labour market, healthcare, and schooling, facilitating the process of inclusion described in Chapter 2. Considering their psychological stress and needs in terms of child and elderly care, refugees began entering the labour market surprisingly quickly – attaining an employment rate of 28% in May 2022 and 65% in November 2022 (NBP, 2023).
By 30th September 2023 more than 10 thousand ran their own businesses according to the administrative social security ZUS data. Based on the MultiSector Needs Assessment Poland 2023 survey conducted in July-August 2023, we calculate that 80% of the income of refugee households is derived from employment, with an additional 5% coming from remittances and 2% from Ukrainian pension benefits. In economic terms, refugees from Ukraine in Poland are not receivers of social services and charity, but primarily consumers, employees, and entrepreneurs.

MultiSector Needs Assessment Poland 2023

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Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland © UNHCR / Anna Liminowicz Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland Economists have advanced an array of channels through which immigration could be increasing productivity. Macro-level regressions demonstrate that immigration has a positive influence on productivity, but they are unable to identify the precise mechanisms behind these impacts.
In part this may stem from the fact, that immigrants and natives differ in important ways, which triggers complementary occupational upgrading of natives and investment in complementary production technologies by firms [15] . Immigrants often exhibit higher entrepreneurship rates from natives. [16] Furthermore, even when immigrants enter seemingly low productivity childcare, elderly care, and housekeeping services, this can allow highly educated and productive native women to increase their labour supply. [17]

---
[15] For example, found by Peri (2016), Lewis and Peri (2015), Lewis (2013), Peri (2012).
[16] For example, found by Anelli, Basso, Ippedico, and Peri (2023), and OECD (2011).
[17] For example, found by Furtado (2016, 2015).

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Applying the same strategies to analyze child health and birth outcomes, we find both positive

and negative effects of mining activity. Mining activity appears to marginally reduce the

anthropometric status (short-term malnutrition) of children in mining districts, which could

point to less food security. These results are in sharp contrast to the improvements in birth

attendance and the decrease in infant mortality observed in mining communities and mining

districts. A child in a mining district born after a mine has become active has had more prenatal

visits and is less likely to die as an infant. This result is similar to what Benshaul-Tolonen

(2019) finds for a larger sample of gold-producing countries in Africa. Despite substantial

reductions in diarrheal diseases, the analysis highlights that migrant children are more likely to

suffer from diarrheal diseases. The effects on the migrant community should be interpreted with

care, however, since it may be that less-well-off people choose to migrate to mining

communities and that the mine activities do not make them any less or better off. In addition,

mine closure or downscaling could lead to deterioration in local employment conditions and

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NAVIGATING HEALTH AND WELL-BEING CHALLENGES FOR REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE

### **Child health,** **vaccination and** **nutrition**

Timely initiation of breastfeeding (within one hour of delivery) Exclusive breastfeeding under 6 months 0-23 153/274 57% months 0-5 15/38 37% months

- Excluding Estonia, Hungary

Breastfeeding practices for infants and young children directly influence their nutritional health during the first two years of life and play a crucial role in child survival. From the survey results, the proportion of children 0-23 months who had timely initiation of breastfeeding was 57% and the rate of exclusive breastfeeding for the first six months of life was 37% in the region. Data need to be interpreted with caution given the very low number of respondents.

Two doses of measles vaccine are recommended for optimal protection against measles; the survey assessed therefore first and second dose measles vaccination coverage in children aged 9 months to 5 years. In average, 83% of children received at least one measles vaccine, similar to results from 2023 when 84% of children had received at least one dose. Coverage was lowest in Romania with 71% where respondents reported also greater

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Substantial progress has been made by Brazil toward implementing the 2019 GRF pledges which
focused on the improvement of the asylum system and the provision of complementary forms of
protection, In 2023, the Government made 10 additional pledges at the GRF, covering the
following topics: improvement and facilitation of the right to family reunion; participation of
people in need of international protection in decision making and consultation processes; creation
of resettlement and complementary pathways programs; strengthening of asylum systems and
improvement of refugee access to health, amongst others.

IFC and UNHCR have been working together since 2018 to create innovative solutions to
overcome the challenges faced by refugees and migrants in Brazil. The two organizations sought
to explore potential ways to engage the private sector in providing solutions with a primary focus
on employment, affordable housing and financial inclusion. IFC and UNHCR, in partnership with
the Brazilian Banking Association (FEBRABAN) and the Brazilian Central Bank, prepared a guide
to inform financial institutions about the profiles and specific documentation of refugees and
migrants and their financial needs.

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The approach to data collection in each of the countries included in the report differed depending on the availability of sampling frames and information on the distribution of the refugee population by geographic area and accommodation type. All interviews were conducted face to face. As a probabilistic selection of respondents could not be ensured, the primary goal was to collect a diverse sample that would reflect the population’s composition as closely as possible.

For the regional analysis, weights were applied based on the most up-to-date estimates of the number of refugees staying in each country. This allowed calculated indicators to more accurately represent the broader refugee population across the region.

Appropriate measures were implemented to ensure the protection of personal data and to guarantee confidentiality in all data collection and processing activities. Consent was requested and recorded for all selected participants, providing clear information on the purpose, and expected use of the data.

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Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

**Table 1.** Ukrainian employment rate in EU.

**Employment rate** **Main sectors of employment** **Date** **Source**

**Source:** Deloitte elaboration based on the aggregation in OECD International Migration Outlook 2023. The calculation methods of employment
rates vary between the countries, the results for Poland, the United Kingdom, Czech Republic and Italy are based on surveys. Additionally, the different statistical offices and organisations may use different employment and working age definitions.

Currently, DIW Berlin data shows that the employment of refugees from Ukraine is much lower in Germany, although many aspire to find employment. In a weekly report from 12th July 2023 the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), a survey conducted in the first quarter of 2023 finds that only 18% of working age refugees were employed (Kollman, 2023). Among the non-employed, however, as many as 93% declare willingness to begin working, of which 71% as soon as possible or within a year.
Importantly, many refugees are currently attending language courses in Germany

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The
 number
 of
 UN
 organisations
 and
 international
 and
 national
 NGOs
 as
 well
 as
 the
scale
 of
 humanitarian
 and
 development
 activities
 in
 the
 South-‐East
 are
 currently
expanding.
 At
 present
 UNHCR
 is
 reviewing,
 together
 with
 partners,
 how
 leadership
 and
co-‐ordination
 in
 support
 of
 durable
 solutions
 in
 the
 South-‐East
 can
 be
 strengthened
 and
centred
 around
 a
 shared
 vision
 and
 strategy
 located
 within
 a
 broader
 protection
framework
 incorporating
 key
 standards.
 UNHCR,
 in
 accordance
 with
 its
 mandate
obligations,
 will
 play
 an
 active
 role
 in
 this
 process
 and
 in
 enhancing
 inter-‐agency
 co-‐
ordination
 on
 durable
 solutions
 at
 regional
 and
 State/Region
 levels.

One
 mechanism
 might
 be
 the
 establishment
 of
 a
 Working
 Group
 on
 Durable
 Solutions
for
 IDPs
 and
 Refugees
 to
 serve
 as
 a
 platform
 to
 co-‐ordinate
 durable
 solutions
 related
activities
 from
 the
 preparatory
 phase.
 The
 working
 group
 could
 be
 co-‐led
 by
representatives
 from
 the
 Government
 and
 UNHCR,
 and
 might
 consist
 of
 relevant
 UN
agencies,
 NGOs,
 donors,
 civil
 society
 and
 representatives
 of
 parties
 involved
 in
 the
 peace
process.
 In
 cease-‐fire
 areas,
 all
 activities
 will
 have
 to
 be
 undertaken
 in
 close
 consultation
with
 non-‐state
 armed
 groups
 operating
 in
 those
 areas.

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natives and this gap was largest for men, workers in the highest education level, and nonnaturalized immigrants. This has an important impact on wages, because, as showed in a seminal work by Kleiner and Krueger (2013) and confirmed in several analyses, working in a regulated profession comes with a significant wage premium.
Brücker et al. (2021), who analysed German data, found that occupational recognition led to full convergence of immigrants’ earnings to those of their native counterparts. Tani (2020) found that in Australia, licensing raised hourly value to the economy. This estimate may underestimate the potential benefits, as the boost in productivity would most likely rise not just employee wages, but employer profits as well. Conversely, the overall impact on wages might be lower, if increased worker competition reduced the average individual premium.

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the refugee inflow. Before the refugee influx, the share of companies reporting vacancies in the quarterly NBP survey stood at 49% in Q4 2021 – the highest level on record. This helps to explain the relative ease of the refugees' labour market inclusion in terms of employment rates.
After refugee inflow, the share of firms reporting vacancies stopped growing and declined slightly to 45% in Q3 2023. This partly indicates the fact that many refugees entered the labour market, and partly a cyclical economic slowdown. Despite that, the labour market remains relatively strong.

Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

**Chart 9.** Change in the number of workers registered for social security with Ukrainian citizenship by NACE sector between end of Q3
2023 and 2021 Thousands Manufacturing Accommodation and food service activities Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles Human heatlh and social work activities Administrative and support service activities Education Information and communication Professional, scientific and technical activities Public administration and defense; compulsory social security Construction Financial and insurance activities Agriculture, forestry and fishing Real estate activities Water supply: sewerage, waste management and remediation activities

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The number of workers with Ukrainian citizenship since the beginning of the full-scale war in Ukraine grew in all NACE [21] sectors apart from transportation and storage. Since 2021, just before the escalation of war in 2022 in Ukraine, the number of workers with Ukrainian citizenship and social security insurance grew the most in manufacturing (almost by 34 thousand), accommodation and food

**Source:** Deloitte own elaboration based on estimated data from [https://nbp.pl/publikacje/cykliczne-materialy-analityczne-nbp/](https://nbp.pl/publikacje/cykliczne-materialy-analityczne-nbp/szybki-monitoring/) 21  Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community (French Nomenclature statistique des Activités économiques dans la
[szybki-monitoring/](https://nbp.pl/publikacje/cykliczne-materialy-analityczne-nbp/szybki-monitoring/) Communauté Européenne).

18 19

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3. Economic Opportunities

In accordance with Article 28 of the 2020 Asylum Law, the restrictions on the employment of foreigners,
including the prerequisite of obtaining a work permit, should be considered not applicable to refugees.
However, Decree No. 96-189 PR/MFPT, still requiring approval from the National Office for Employment
Protection (ONAPE) for the employment of foreigners, remains silent on refugees. In addition, the decree
stipulates that, before submission to ONAPE, contracts for foreigners must receive endorsement from
immigration authorities. It is unclear whether refugees should be exempted from this endorsement from
Immigration Department.

Furthermore, Article 11 of the 1996 Decree, which prohibits hiring foreigners for non-specialized jobs, may still
apply for refugees. Companies hiring foreigners are still obligated to pay fees ranging from FCFA 100,000
to FCFA 250,000, and it is unclear whether these fees will also apply to refugees. The 2023 Asylum Decree
has not clarified the type of exemption of restrictive measures for foreigner employment that should benefit
to refugees.

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##### **September/ October 2023 report**

###### Venezuela

**XII. Focal Group Discussions**

**with LGBTIQ+ Organizations for**

**Thematic Protection Analysis**

**Update (PAU)**

**In view of the preparation of a the-**

**matic Protection Analysis Update**

**(PAU) on the protection situation of**

**LGBTQI+ persons, as part of the PC’s**

**reporting efforts, with support from**

**the Areas of Responsibility (AoRs)**

**and the GenCap Gender Advisor,**

a hybrid focus group discussion was

organized with LGBTIQ+ organizations

and relevant actors on September 7th,

combining face-to-face and remote par
ticipation.

The focal group aimed to collect infor
mation from key informants on the

humanitarian needs and protection

risks of LGBTIQ+ people, with a focus

on changes perceived in the last year.

**10**

This information supported the drafting

of the document that outlines the current

context, main protection risks, affected

groups by geographical areas, and key

recommendations for humanitarian

actors, government entities, donors, and

civil society organizations in Venezu
ela. The report's analytical conclusions

aim to provide an evidence base for

programming, advocacy, and dialogue

to influence behaviors and policies,

fostering a more favorable protection

environment.

**XIII. Mental Health and Psychoso-**

**cial Support (MHPSS) Coaching**

**and Training of Trainers (ToT)**

**The PC through the Protection Assis-**

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**more productive.** Firms adjust their production technologies
to the skill-mix prevalent in the economy, e.g., to the growing number of labour force with tertiary education (Acemoglu, 2002). Similarly, when immigrants arrive and make certain skills more prevalent in the labour force, firms adjust thus making the whole skill-group more productive and countervailing downward pressure on its wages, and possibly increasing overall efficiency (Peri, 2016). This is the mechanism found by previously described seminal paper by Peri (2012), in which immigration caused low-skill-biased technical change and increased productivity. An inflow of low-skilled immigrants can cause firms to adapt labour-intensive technologies or postpone automation, while expanding research and development departments in case of high-skilled immigrants (Lewis and Peri, 2015; Lewis, 2013).

**Immigrants tend to have higher rates of entrepreneurship**

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THE ROLE OF HOUSING SUPPORT AND EMPLOYMENT FACILITATION IN ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY OF REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE

**SHARE OF HOUSEHOLDS BELOW THE POVERTY LINE BY**

**GENDER OF ADULTS, %**

Female with children Mixed without children Female without children Mixed with children Male without children 56% 48% 40% 37% 32% Female-led households with children also demonstrate a significantly higher poverty rate, standing at 56%, than their mixed-gender [18] counterparts (37%). This pattern does not hold true for mixed households without children, likely due to the significantly higher median age of adults in this cohort with 53 years vs. a maximum of 45 for the other groups.

Compared with their initial months in the host country, 42% of female-led households report a decrease in their ability to afford goods and services. This is the highest share among all gender groups.

---
[18] With both adult males and females present

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Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

# **4.** Unaccounted positive externalities

##### Macroeconomic modelling underestimates the positive economic impacts of immigration, compared to econometric estimates.

**Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland**

**Immigration's impact on productivity**

**•** Jaumotte et al. (2016) in an IMF taskforce report examine economic impacts of

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The cost of care and language are still barriers among those seeking care, and regionally, when compared to 2023, the proportion of those who reported experiencing cost barriers has increased, while it has not changed for language barriers. In Romania where unmet needs are the highest, cost and language barriers were the most reported barriers after long waiting times. In Hungary, language is the most reported barrier (53%).

While the primary barrier to accessing healthcare reported by both women and men was long wait times, women reported unaffordable transport costs (25%) and hospital fees (21%) as their next most significant barriers. In contrast, men reported language difficulties (22%) and the inability to make an appointment (22%) as their top barriers after long wait times.

**BARRIERS TO ACCESSING HEALTH CARE**

2023 2024 Long waiting times* Could not afford transport Unable make appt Could not afford hospital Language barrier Could not afford clinic fee Lack of knowledge Lack health insurance Do not trust local provider Spec med treatment serv unavailable Refused to provide care (2023 N=1071, 2024 N=1,040)

- Included under Others in 2023 (Total Others 2023: 5%)

**13**

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fastgini [15] in STATA). We do this for both the cluster and district level. None of the effects of

mining are statistically significant, but they point to increased asset wealth.

**Table 9 OLS estimates for wealth and inequality in the DHS individual-level analysis**

Wealth Gini

wealth cluster district
index level level

active*mine 7,290 -0.004 0.004
(12,849) (0.013) (0.018)

mine 9,922 0.011 0.006
(8,676) (0.013) (0.016)

active 7,854 -0.006 0.034**
(9,016) (0.010) (0.017)

Observations 4,909 4,909 4,909

R-squared 0.613 0.227 0.548

_Note:_ Robust standard errors clustered at the DHS cluster level in parentheses. All regressions control for year and
district fixed effects, urban dummy, age, and years of education. Active is active status of mine in the survey year.

*** p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1. OLS = ordinary least squares.

**6.4 Bottom 40% of the population**

To understand the welfare effects of the bottom 40 percent of the population in the income

scale, we split the sample according to the wealth score provided by DHS. Given the data

structure, which is repeated cross-section, we cannot follow a particular household that was

identified as belonging to the bottom 40 percent in the initial time period. Instead, we identify

---
[15] Fastgini is a user-written command in STATA that helps calculate the gini coefficient.

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THE ROLE OF HOUSING SUPPORT AND EMPLOYMENT FACILITATION IN ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY OF REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE

### **Background**

Over two years have elapsed since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine leading to a protracted displacement and a humanitarian crisis. The response by the refugee-hosting countries continues to be overall characterized by a spirit of welcomeness and generosity and much has been done to make ensure that those fleeing the war are able to meet basic needs and have access to accommodation, healthcare, education, social assistance, and employment. Despite these efforts, the situation remains a source of deep concern, necessitating a continued and coordinated humanitarian response at the regional level.

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**There are substantial barriers for**

**those seeking entry into the teaching**

**profession.** There are three career stages
for teachers working in Polish schools: teacher trainee, appointed teacher, and chartered teacher. Three-quarters of teachers in the 2023/2024 school year fell into the last two categories (GUS, 2024). However, to become promoted to an appointed or chartered teacher, a foreigner must possess Polish, EU, Swiss, or other EEA citizenship (Babakova et al., 2024). In effect, only 0.4% of Ukrainian refugees were teachers (ZUS-registered in mid-2024) compared to 2.2% of Polish citizens. There were more teachers’ assistants, who are not regulated, than actual teachers. Furthermore, the data presented in chapter 2 shows that the median net wages of Ukrainian refugees in the teaching profession are just PLN 3,500, constituting 66% of what the host population earns, the lowest earnings of all sectors.

**Occupational licensing rules regarding**

**citizenship have been relaxed for**

**medical professions in the wake of**

**the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and in**

**February 2022, but those were often**

**makeshift arrangements.** According to
the Babakova et al. (2024) report, during the COVID-19 pandemic, practicing medical professionals from Ukraine were allowed

#### **4.3 Language wage premium**

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