Input: The recommendations drawn from this analysis focus on addressing the health and mental health and psychosocial needs and barriers identified in the SEIS, tailoring them to the specific data and context of each country. To enhance policy development, it will be crucial to improve monitoring of refugees’ health, including sexual and reproductive health and mental health, through inclusion of disaggregated refugee data into national data systems. This will require effective collaboration among health organizations, statistical offices, and partners. Addressing capacity issues in national health systems, such as workforce shortages and long wait times, can be supported through telemedicine and temporarily integrating Ukrainian healthcare workers. Refugees with chronic illnesses and disabilities require targeted interventions to meet their health and MHPSS needs, including through health financing mechanisms. Continued efforts are also required to address persistent access barriers through contextspecific strategies, including providing refugees with information on navigating health systems and preventive health services such as vaccination.

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Input: Among the 5% who reported access constraints, the primary barrier to accessing SRH services was long waiting times, affecting 33%. Financial barriers also posed challenges, with 23% of women reporting difficulties covering transportation costs, 19% struggling with clinic fees, and 12% with hospital fees. Additionally, 21% lacked knowledge of where to access SRH care and 19% were unable to make appointments, reflecting both informational and administrative barriers to SRH services.

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Input:
Activities
 –
 whether
 delivered
 by
 UNHCR
 or
 partners-‐
 should
 be
 conflict-‐sensitive
 and
address
 key
 issues
 of
 concern
 of
 both
 returning
 refugees
 and
 IDPs
 and
 their
communities.
 A
 community-‐based
 programme
 that
 builds
 on
 existing
 systems
 and
structures
 and
 supports
 local
 development
 plans
 should
 be
 planned
 and
 implemented
based
 upon
 comprehensive
 needs
 assessments
 and
 consultations
 with
 the
 populations
concerned
 as
 well
 as
 government
 and
 non-‐government
 actors.

Activities
 and
 project
 delivery
 should
 be
 flexible
 and
 context-‐specific
 so
 as
 to
accommodate
 complexities
 and
 respond
 to
 any
 changes
 that
 may
 occur
 throughout
 the
process.
 Activities
 range
 from
 food
 assistance
 to
 essential
 health
 care
 facilities
 and
services,
 primary
 and
 secondary
 education
 support,
 and
 community-‐level
 infrastructure
rehabilitation
 or
 construction
 and
 livelihoods.
 Livelihood
 opportunities
 will
 be
 a
 key
component
 in
 ensuring
 the
 sustainability
 of
 the
 reintegration
 process
 and
 cash
 and
voucher
 modalities
 to
 boost
 the
 local
 economy
 should
 be
 actively
 considered
 where
these
 are
 appropriate
 and
 effective
 ways
 of
 meeting
 identified
 needs.

UNHCR
 will
 seek
 innovative
 solutions,
 in
 particular
 for
 self-‐reliance,
 education,
 shelter,
and
 domestic
 energy
 solutions.
 Poverty
 graduation
 models
 will
 be
 explored,
 combining
relief
 assistance
 with
 capacity
 building
 measures,
 to
 enable
 the
 poorest
 individuals
 and
households
 to
 move
 out
 of
 poverty.

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Input:
### **Improved Protection Environment**

While it is not a signatory to the Refugee Convention, Indonesia generally respects international and
domestic refugee law, particularly the principle of non-refoulement, and has demonstrated critical
humanitarian leadership in the region by consistently stepping forward to disembark boats carrying
Rohingya refugees. 2024 and 2025 present important opportunities to further advance the protection
environment in the country, including the planned revision of a key domestic refugee law and the new
policies and priorities of recently elected national leaders.

The National Refugee Taskforce has initiated inter-ministry discussions on the revision of Presidential
Regulation 125 of 2016. This Regulation provides the foundation for ensuring access to asylum and
assigns UNHCR a key role in the management of asylum claims and solutions. UNHCR’s
recommendations for consideration in the revision have focused on the need for clarifying and
expanding the decree’s scope to ensure a strong refugee protection framework in Indonesia, including
protection safeguards that ensure entry to safe territory through channels other than the sea;
increasing joint activities with the Government, particularly in registration and documentation; and
advancing inclusion efforts in the country.

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Kingdom, 56% in Sweden, 53% in Lithuania and 51% in the Czech Republic. The estimate for Poland was based on November 2022 National Bank of Poland survey data.
This relatively high value is supported by a UNHCR Assessment from 2nd November, in which survey results show that 72% of refugees are in the labour force, with 61% employed and 11% unemployed.
The most refugees are employed in manufacturing – 14%, accommodation and food service – 12%, and trade and repair – 6%. 89% of the survey respondents were women [29] .

27 Deloitte elaboration based on the aggregation in OECD International Migration Outlook 2023 28 After the closing date for our report, NBP (2024) published new data, showing a slight drop in Ukrainian refugees employment rate to 62% that does not change our general conclusions.

---
[29] UNHCR Multi Sectorial Needs Assessment October 2023

November 2022 National Bank of Poland survey data

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THE ROLE OF HOUSING SUPPORT AND EMPLOYMENT FACILITATION IN ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY OF REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE Bulgaria (20 percentage points below the domestic figure). While differences in the typical household composition do explain some of the variation Bulgaria, for instance, has the largest share of retirees - the local context probably plays a more substantial role.

**LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION BY COUNTRY (AGE 15+), %** **[1]**

Host country Ukraine refugees

**UNEMPLOYMENT: REFUGEE POPLUATION VERSUS HOST**

**COUNTRY, %** **[1]**

Host country Ukraine refugees Bulgaria Czechia Hungary Moldova Poland Romania Slovakia Region

1. Host country data based on indicators reported by the [ILO for 2022](https://ilostat.ilo.org/data/)

**TOP EMPLOYMENT BARRIERS REPORTED BY UNEMPLOYED**

**REFUGEES, % OF RESPONDENTS** **[1]**

Moldova Bulgaria Romania Slovakia Poland Czechia Hungary Region

1. Host country data based on indicators reported by the World Bank
[(modeled ILO estimates for 2023)](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.TLF.CACT.ZS)

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percent reported an increase, and 12 percent experienced a decrease since December 2020. This distribution

suggests that while citizenship has had a stabilizing effect for many households, it has not yet resulted in broad
based economic gains. However, the increase in income for nearly 4 out of every 10 households is a positive sign

of economic progress and potential for further growth as the community continues to integrate more fully into the

Kenyan economy.

**[www.unhcr.org](http://www.unhcr.org/)** 7

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The newly enacted asylum legislation does not include a specific legal provision governing access to financial
services nor access to administrative documents and certifications, including recognition of educational
attainments received outside of the national system. However, within the context of local integration and
self-reliance, Article 61 of the [2023 Decree](https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2091861/645b938a4.pdf) outlines that the Government of Chad prioritizes actions for
refugees, among others, to access credits, microcredits and subsidies, as well as to obtain the recognition
of documents issued by competent authorities.

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**benefits.** Although the employment rate
of Ukrainian refugees in Poland is already high when compared to other countries, there is still room for improvement.
Increasing the employment of refugees by 15 thousand people, which would close half of the gap between the employment rate of refugees and Poles, would yield at least PLN 1 billion of value added in the economy. This calculation is made under an assumption that those newly hired would be paid minimum wage and should be considered a lower-bound estimate, as it understates potential benefits. In part, the higher productivity of workers might boost the profits for employers, further enhanced by increased investment.

#### **4.4 Persons not previously in employment**

**Employment rates among Ukrainian**

**refugees are exceptionally high, with**

**only a minority requiring targeted**

**assistance to enter the labour market,**

**in particular those who were not**

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3% 2% 1% 0% 4000 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 4000 Ukrainian refugee educational attainment implies from 18% (assuming refugees’ educational attainment from November 2022 survey) to 19% (July-August 2023) higher earnings than the general population. [36] Poviat-level geographical distribution of Ukrainian refugees is more concentrated in high productivity agglomerations, implying 7% higher earnings than for other workers registered for social security. [37] There is no publicly available hard data on the sectoral distribution of Ukrainian refugees, which we proxy by the growth in employees with Ukrainian citizenship registered for social security since the outbreak of the full-scale war in Ukraine (unfortunately this to some extent will be Ukrainian workers previously present in Poland who changed jobs) – this imperfect proxy implies 7% lower earnings than general workers. [38] Smaller firm sizes of employers of Ukrainian refugees imply their 8% lower productivity (and thus earnings) from the general population. [39] Most of all, occupational distribution of Ukrainian refugee workers from ZUS implies 21% lower earnings from the general population when measured by nine large occupational groups and 23% lower by detailed occupations. [40] 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000

---
[40] Note that data on occupations of Ukrainian refugees is for persons with PESEL UKR registered for social security on 30th September 2023. It

data on occupations of Ukrainian refugees

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**The unemployment rate, however, is very high**
In contrast to labor force participation, the estimated unemployment rate of refugees from Ukraine is notably high when compared to that of host country nationals. At the regional level, the former stands at 14%, which starkly contrasts with the 3% weighted average for locals. In certain countries, such as Romania, the unemployment level exceeds 30%.
According to unemployed respondents, challenges for securing employment include (1) local language proficiency (cited by over 50% of those surveyed), (2) lack of decent employment opportunities, (3) lack of opportunities matching the candidate’s skillset, (4) lack of age-appropriate opportunities, and (5) lack of childcare services. When queried about services that could enhance economic prospects of their families, the top two requests were for language training (33% of respondents) and job matching assistance (27% of respondents).

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Input:
constraints in accessing health services. Vaccine coverage increased notably in Moldova, Czechia and Bulgaria compared to 2023. In comparison, measles vaccination coverage within Ukraine reached 92% for the 1st dose of measles vaccine and 87% for second dose [8] (WHO, 2023).

Regionally, only 54% of all children received the recommended second measles vaccine.
Vaccination coverage is below the 95% target required to interrupt community transmission of measles.

**% OF CHILDREN RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE MEASLES**

**VACCINE**

2023 2024 Data need to be interpreted with caution as they rely on recall and were not verified against individual vaccination records.

Bulgaria Czechia Hungary Moldova Slovakia Poland Romania (2023 N=1,539, 2024 N=1,320) 8. [https://immunizationdata.who.int/dashboard/regions/european-region/UKR accessed on 06.11.2024](https://immunizationdata.who.int/dashboard/regions/european-region/UKR)

**18**

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HIGH EMPLOYMENT RATES, BUT LOW WAGES: A POVERTY ASSESSMENT OF UKRAINIAN REFUGEES IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES

# **Contents**

Acknowledgements 2 Summary of findings and recommendations 3 Background 4 Key findings 4 Methodology 13 Limitations 14

# **Acknowledgements**

We extend our sincere appreciation to the numerous individuals and organizations whose contributions have been instrumental in the development of this report. The data analysis and writing was conducted by the interagency SEIS Livelihoods and Socio-Economic Inclusion Sector Analysis Group (SAG), led by Konstantin Fastovets (UNHCR). The team also consisted of David Mosler (ILO), Erin Neale (IOM), Arianna Pearlstein (UN Women), Yaroslav Smirnov (IOM), Elif Sucu (IOM), and Idil Yildiz (ILO).

We also express our gratitude to Jad Ghosn and the Regional Bureau for Europe (UNHCR) for their invaluable guidance and support in coordination, data preparation, and analysis.

**Cover photograph:**

Antonina (center) is at a CV support point, receiving assistance with preparing her resume.

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Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

**Chart 7. Income of Ukrainian refugee households by source**

**2%**

**0.1%**

**In 2024, Ukrainian refugee households**

**increasingly sourced their income from**

**Poland, rather than from Ukraine.** This
can be seen when comparing the MSNA survey conducted in July-August 2023 and SEIS in May-June 2024 (UNHCR, 2024, 2023).

While some methodological differences apply, we can see that incomes earned in Poland grew from 81% in 2023 to 90% in 2024. Conversely, incomes from Ukraine declined from 18% to just 9%. This change demonstrates that Ukrainian refugees Work (regular, part-time, self-employment, remote, other, remote in Ukraine) Remittances from Ukraine Polish social benefits Ukrainian social benefits Other (capital, loans, other) Source: Deloitte own elaboration based on SEIS (May-June 2024) UNHCR (2024) survey.

Note: Deloitte worked with disaggregated household-level data, ensuring comparability (converting all Ukrainian hryvnia incomes into Polish zloty based on daily exchange rates in the time of the interview, and 3-month into 1-month remittance incomes).

continue to integrate economically.
It comes as no surprise, given that employment rates and wages of Ukrainian refugees in Poland increased during that time, which is the focus of the next chapter.

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Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

## **2.** Ukrainian refugees in the Polish labour market

##### In the past year, as far as labour market integration is concerned, refugees from Ukraine improved in terms of employment and wages, yet they continue to be disproportionately skewed towards elementary occupations. They are also the group to see the fastest improvements, with the gap towards Polish citizens visibly closing across the entire wage distribution (2.1). The current refugee employment rates are only slightly lower than those for Polish citizens, and median net wages are at about four-fifths of the economy as a whole, which may nevertheless be overly optimistic when compared to gross or average wages (2.2).

#### **2.1 Improving economic situation**

Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

**Chart 9. Ukrainian refugee labour status** **[9]** **Chart 10. Ukrainian refugee median net wage** **[10]**

Working age (women 15-59, men 15-64) PLN, 18-64 age group 4,000 69%

**Ukrainian refugees are more likely**

**to be employed in elementary**

**occupations than pre-war Ukrainian**

**migrants, non-Ukrainian foreigners,**

**and Polish citizens, but they are**

**also the group to have improved**

---
[10] See the note on median wage estimation method in the Online Technical Appendix.

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from abroad (e.g. savings of refugees in Ukrainian banks) further strengthens that effect. In total, general government revenue increased by 2.0% in 2022, 2.75% in 2023, and 2.94% in 2024. In monetary terms this amounts to PLN 25.0 billion in 2022, PLN 39.1 billion in 2023, and PLN 47.0 billion in 2024 [22] . In the long term, refugees should increase annual general government revenue by around 2.7%.

**Ultimately, Ukrainian refugees**

**generate additional output and**

**demand.** This results in an increase in real
GDP, and is especially beneficial for public finance. Although the influx of refugees was costly at the start, the additional general government revenue they provided was more than enough to compensate for the expense [23] . Tight labour market helped absorb the increase in labour force, mitigating negative impacts of increased competition on the native workforce. Over time, increased productivity should benefit native workers, as it is the primary driver of long-term wage growth. [24]

---
[24] For a discussion on the stable long-term relationship between wages and labour productivity, see for example Meager & Speckesser (2011).

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**refugees.** Although language skills
improve over time, still only 18% of refugees speak Polish fluently, usually those who arrived in Poland 29 months ago. On average, those at the beginner level have been in the country for only 18 months.

**•** **Lack of work experience negatively**

**affects the labour outcomes of older**

**refugees.** Refugees who back in Ukraine
managed the household or were not employed remain underemployed in Poland. The employment rate among the most enterprising refugees, who were self-employed back in Ukraine, is 91%. In contrast, those who did not work, study or train in Ukraine, have an employment rate in Poland of approximately 35%.

labour market, native workers increasingly shift to complementary, higher value and better paid tasks. This can be seen in the data, as Polish citizens are moving to better paid occupations. It constitutes a positive shock to productivity, which is what counterbalances labour market pressures.

##### Macroeconomic impact

**In 2024, Ukrainian refugees’ net**

**impact amounted to 2.7% of the Polish**

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The government of Chad has committed to providing refugees with access to quality education by integrating
them into the national education system. This integration allows all refugees and asylum-seekers to enrol in
primary, secondary, and higher education institutions, follow the Chadian curriculum, and obtain recognized
diplomas. The process of integrating refugees into the national education system has seen significant
progress since 27 November 2020, including the adoption of the ten-year refugee education strategy by
the government. In line with this, since 2018, the government has recognized and integrated 94 schools
in camps and reception sites into the national system and opened seven examination centres in camps to
ensure that all students can take national exams under proper conditions.

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difference between close and far, and before and after mine opening, we have created a

difference-in-differences estimator.

Panel B of figure 2 shows this strategy in a map, where the small blue circles show the treatment

areas, and the 100-km-radius green circles show the geographic areas that constitute the control

group. As is common in difference-in-differences analysis, the estimation relies on treatment

11

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In these vulnerable conditions, any shock to the household economy -such as job loss, illness, or
climate related events- significantly impacts on refugees’ ability to cover the rent and utility costs
(water, electricity), leaving them at heightened risk of eviction. [20] Climate related incidents are
becoming recurrent in the Brazilian context, such as floods and landslides in the south, as well as
droughts and wildfires in the center and the north of the country. [21] For instance, southern Brazil
has seen an increase of up to 30% in average rainfall over the last three decades [22] and, as of
September 2024, 59% of the Brazilian territory was affected by the most severe drought since
nationwide measurements. [23]

---
[22] Presidência da Republica, « Southern Brazil has seen an increas of up to 30% in average annual rainfall over the last three decades »,

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**occupational downgrading.** The SEIS
survey indicates that 34% of Ukrainian refugees currently employed in Poland work in the same sector as back in Ukraine, while 48% – in a different one. There is no data for 18% of workers – mostly made up of the youngest refugees who might not have worked back in Ukraine. Employment in one’s pre-displacement sector appears to boost the median net wage by about 6%, when compared to those who switch fields – a back-of-the-envelope calculation puts their median net earnings at 89% of the overall median. However, this likely overstates the true effect of staying in the same sector, since the higher-paid groups (for example, the majority of IT specialists) were more likely to remain in their original industry.

**Highly skilled Ukrainian refugees**

**are likely to suffer from significant**

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While refugees and asylum-seekers have the right to reside in Chad, as enshrined in Article 21 of the law, and
there are no legislative restrictions on their choice of residence, multisectoral assistance is only provided
by UNHCR and its partners in camps. Consequently, this assistance remains a decisive factor in refugees’
decision to stay in the camps. Refugees with the financial means to support themselves or engaged in
economic activities outside the camps are free to choose their place of residence in Chad.

**3.2** **Right to work and rights at work**

Article 28 of the [Asylum law](https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2091861/645b938a4.pdf) in the Republic of Chad grants refugees the most favourable treatment afforded
under similar circumstances to foreign nationals regarding the pursuit of gainful employment, whether
salaried, non-salaried and/or self-employed. The same provision pursues that refugees shall be exempted
from certain restrictive measures imposed by the prevailing regulations on the employment of foreigners.
Additionally, Article 70 of the 2023 Decree stipulates that a refugee legally residing in Chad enjoys the same
rights and standards of treatment as foreign nationals. Article 61 of the [2023 Decree specifically addressing](https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2091861/645b938a4.pdf)
local integration also guarantees the refugee right to access salaried or non-salaried employment to reach
self-reliance.

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social insurance. Second, the statistical definition of an employed person is wider than just being registered with the Social Insurance Institution (Zakład Ubezpieczeń Społecznych, ZUS) on a certain day [3] . Third, some Ukrainians work in the shadow economy. The number of workers with Ukrainian citizenship and social insurance increased from only 33 thousand at the end of 2013 to 627 thousand at the end of 2021 – just before the refugee influx. Some of this increase reflects the transitioning of Ukrainians to more regular work arrangements and securing work permits. Following February 2022, the numbers further increased with the arrival of Ukrainian refugees. The data for mid-2024 shows 771 thousand workers with Ukrainian citizenship registered for social insurance, including 247 thousand refugees. Ukrainian refugees in Poland have been given PESEL UKR numbers

- a version of an ID number assigned to
every Polish national – which made high quality data on their demographics easily available, though they may still be missing from most of the statistics compiled by the Polish statistical office.

20% 19% Men Women 1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 7% 8% 4% 4% 9% 12% 7%

#### **1.2 Households characteristics**

**The structure of the Ukrainian**

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NAVIGATING HEALTH AND WELL-BEING CHALLENGES FOR REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE

# Recommendations

Host countries and communities have made commendable and continuous efforts to support refugees in accessing essential health and MHPSS services. While most respondents reported adequate access, barriers to services changed and increased for some refugees. These changes do not take the same form for all refugees, and intersectional factors related to gender, age, disability, and chronic illness continue to impact the experiences and needs of refugees from Ukraine in this regard. The recommendations below highlight key priorities and actions for governments and RRP partners to address these challenges and enhance refugees’ access to care in host countries.

These actions aim to support governments and local communities in strengthening health and MHPSS systems in areas impacted by refugee arrivals and advancing the integration of refugees into national systems. Achieving these goals will require long-term planning and sustained funding commitments.

9. [Integraton of migrant and refugee data in health informaton systems in Europe: advancing evidence, policy and practce](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanepe.2023.100744)

**28**

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treatment distance of 50 km, we no longer see a significant effect. In panel Ab, the results are

replicated using a spatial lag model, meaning that we allow for nonlinear effects with distance.

In reality, it seems like the electricity rate is much higher before a mine (dashed line) than with

an active mine (the blue line). However, when the results are decomposed by migrant status in

panel Ac of figure A1 (Annex) we find that migrants are driving the lower electricity rate. In

fact, among nonmigrants, the electricity rate is higher 0–10 km from an active mine, although

it is slightly lower 10–20 km away. [14]

**6.3 Distributional effects on wealth and inequality**

Table 9 presents the effects of mining on asset wealth and on asset wealth inequality. Wealth

data are available in the form of a wealth index, but only for the two last DHS surveys.

Following Fenske (2015) and Flatø and Kotsadam (2014), we calculate inequality by means of

a Gini coefficient (recoding the wealth variable to be positive only, and using the command

13 It is also possible that mining companies compete with households for electricity if supply cannot be increased
in the short run.

---
[14] In panels Ba, Bb, and Bc of Appendix figure A1, we analyze access to radio. We learn that access to

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## Introduction

##### Nearly two years after the beginning of the full-scale war in Ukraine, the positive impact of the refugees on the Polish economy becomes clearly visible.

On their arrival, the impact of refugees on the economy primarily manifested through higher consumption, that was financed mainly by increased governmental spending, civil society, international organisations, and savings brought from Ukraine. While these added to a significant initial increase in consumption, multiple sources of financing and a lack of aggregated data (particularly on general government expenses) make its magnitude uncertain. Although in the short term it stimulated the economy, drawing just on savings was not sustainable. Over time, however, refugees started to work as employees and entrepreneurs, adding not only to the demand, but also to the supply of the economy, contributing to its long-term growth. The focus of this report is this structural impact of refugees on the economy as consumers, employers, entrepreneurs, and taxpayers.

The beginning of the full-scale war in Ukraine resulted in a large inflow of refugees into Poland outlined in Chapter 1.
This cohort differs from the pre-2022 Ukrainian economic migrants, most notably in its demographic makeup which primarily comprises children and working age women.

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HIGH EMPLOYMENT RATES, BUT LOW WAGES: A POVERTY ASSESSMENT OF UKRAINIAN REFUGEES IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES

**SHARE OF POPULATION PAYING FOR RENTED HOUSING: HOSTS VS REFUGEES**

Share of hosts living in rented housing (2023) Share of refugees fully paying for rent (2024) Share of refugees partially paying for rent (2024) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Bulgaria Czechia Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Moldova Poland Romania Slovakia Region Source: Eurostat, survey data, SAG estimates

**HOUSING COST AS A SHARE OF HOUSEHOLD DISPOSABLE INCOME**

Refugees (2024) Hosts (2022) Bulgaria Czechia Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Moldova Poland Romania Slovakia Region Source: Eurostat, survey data, SAG estimates

**REFUGEE POVERTY RATES WITH AND WITHOUT CORRECTION FOR EXCESSIVE HOUSING COSTS**

Refugees (2024) Refugees with housing expense correction (2024) Hosts (2023) 65% 40% 52% 31% 46% 43% 37% Bulgaria Czechia Hungary Moldova Poland Romania Slovakia Estonia Latvia Lithuania Region Source: Eurostat, survey data, SAG estimates

**6**

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Input:
Skills-job mismatching also becomes evident when analyzing the current employment of refugees compared to their pre-war employment in Ukraine, as nearly 60% have transitioned to entirely different economic sectors.
This phenomenon is more pronounced among women, with 63% having shifted to roles outside their previous employment background, compared to 50% of men. One possible explanation for this discrepancy is the higher proportion of men employed in sectors like construction and IT prior to displacement. These fields often demand fewer country-specific qualifications, such as proficiency in the local language, thereby facilitating easier integration into similar roles in the host country.

**DISTRIBUTION OF WORKING AGE POPULATION BY**

**HIGHEST EDUCATION LEVEL ATTAINED**

Technical or Vocational Bachelor Master's Doctoral

**WAGE PREMIUMS FOR EDUCATION LEVEL GAINS: HOSTS**

**VERSUS REFUGEES, %**

Refugee eduction wage premium (mean, 2024) Bachelor's or above Hosts (2023) Refugees (2024) Source: Survey data, ILO 1% Host education wage premium (median, 2022) Technical or vocational Note: Wage premiums computed with lower secondary education as the baseline Source: Survey data, Eurostat, SAG estimates

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Input:
Employment continues to be closely associated with lower poverty rates, though ultimately, it’s the size of income that is generated by working household members that makes the biggest difference. Considering that the share of working-age refugees that are employed is nearing host population levels after rising further in 2024, attention should now turn to wages. Data on the latter, which was derived from household level indicators, demonstrates that refugees on average make two-thirds of what the local population does per hour of work. Low wage premiums for higher education levels and the fact that some 60% of current refugee employees have a background in an entirely different sector of the economy, suggest the presence of underemployment and skills mismatching. This assertion is corroborated by nearly 35% of employed refugees in the region reporting few available jobs with adequate pay, lack of positions that match their skills, or issues with getting their qualifications recognized. Moreover, almost the same percentage indicate lack of local language knowledge to be a problem, a well-acknowledged barrier to skilled employment.

**Based on the above findings it is recommended that:**

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Input:
##### **September/ October 2023 report**

###### Venezuela

**trafficking networks.** After bilateral

meeting between the Protection Cluster,

the WGTiP and the FSL Cluster, a focal

group was organized on October 10th.

A total of 7 participants from UN Agen
cies, AoRs, and local NGOs participated.

WG members actively participated by

sharing field experiences and proposing

recommendations to address challenges

raised during the discussion.

**VIII. Monthly Meetings of the**

**WGTiP**

**The WGTiP convenes monthly to**

**review its working plan and provide**

**a platform for members to discuss**

**trends and activities related to TiP. In**

**the last meeting, the WG collectively**

**decided to establish a Task Force to**

**draft a guide on security for orga-**

**nizations working with Victims of**

**Trafficking (VoT).** Additionally, members

have developed standardized training

and sensitization activities/workshops to

implement in communities on the topic of

TiP. These trainings will be beneficial to

other organizations addressing human

trafficking issues. In October’s monthly

meeting, the WG hosted the office of UN

Special Rapporteur for Trafficking in Per
sons. The meeting involved discussions

on potential collaboration with WG mem
bers and how the UN Rapporteur's office

can support advocacy efforts.

Member organizations also shared infor
mation on available services for victims

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_Note:_ Robust standard errors clustered at the DHS cluster level in parentheses. All regressions control for year and
district fixed effects, urban dummy, age, and years of education. Active is active status of mine in the survey year.

*** p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1. Results for women’s partners also available upon request. OLS = ordinary least
squares. The women and men samples have different sampling frames and therefore we are not analyzing these
results jointly.

Two further caveats should be noted: (i) with many variables tested, such evidence should not

be given too much weight, (ii) number of sampled men in the treatment category is quite small.

Out of 7,157 sampled med, only 484 men live close to active mines. A bigger treated sample

would provide more reliable results. [10]

**5.2 Child health**

We explore effects on child health, such as size at birth, infant mortality, anthropometrics, and

incidence of cough, diarrhea, and fever. Panel A and Panel B use different variable definitions

---
[10] Results for sampled women’s partners are similar.

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Input:
those people fell outside the definitions of population used by Statistics Poland (Główny Urząd Statystyczny, GUS, Poland’s statistical office). The National Bank of Poland estimated that between 2014 and 2018, there were approximately one to two million Ukrainian workers in Poland at a time (Strzelecki, Growiec and Wyszyński, 2022). According to the 2021 Polish National Census, one year before the outbreak of the full-scale war in Ukraine there were about one million Ukrainian citizens residing in Poland, almost all of them on a temporary basis.

After the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, Poland experienced a massive influx of refugees – with more than 27 million border crossings from Ukraine and more than 1.9 million applications for protection submitted by April 7, 2025 [1] . Not all of those people stayed in Poland. Many of them later returned to Ukraine or moved to other countries. By February 14, 2025, PESEL UKR [2] holders who remained in Poland stood at less than 1 million, while the border movement balance between Poland and Ukraine was slightly below 2 million.

---
[1] UNHCR data, https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine
[2] PESEL UKR is a version of Polish national ID number for Ukrainian citizens in connection with the armed conflict in the territory of that country.

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Input:
The escalatation of war 2022 in Ukraine caused a large inflow of refugees into Poland. While some refugees from Ukraine have since returned to Ukraine or gone further to Germany or other countries, in October 2023 close to 957 thousand remained in Poland (identified by active PESEL UKR numbers). They consist primarily of children and working aged women. Despite the forced nature of displacement, war trauma, and caregiving responsibilities, refugees from Ukraine very quickly entered the labour market as employees and entrepreneurs. The precise number of refugees from Ukraine working in Poland remains uncertain, with our estimates ranging from 225 to 350 thousand. The lower bound is the number of social security registrations and understates the actual figure, as some jobs may not require social contributions or remain in the informal sector. The higher bound is the product of employment rates from surveys of refugees from Ukraine, and their working age population from the active PESEL UKR database. By JulyAugust 2023 Ukrainian refugee households supported themselves, with 80% of their incomes coming from work. [49]

---
[49] Deloitte calculations based on Multi-Sector Needs Assessment Poland 2023 survey data provided by UNHCR.

active PESEL UKR database
PESEL UKR numbers

Multi-Sector Needs Assessment Poland 2023 survey data

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Input:
**Figure 1 Ghana’s annual gold production and world price of gold**

Ghana is the second-largest gold producer in Africa after South Africa, with gold production

averaging 77 tons per year (Gajigo, Mutambatsere, and Mdiaya 2012). In 2011, Ghana’s

mineral sector accounted for about 14 percent of total tax revenues and 5.5 percent of the gross

domestic product (GDP) (Bermúdez-Lugo 2011), as well as 44 percent of Ghanian exports

(Gajigo, Mutambatsere, and Mdiaya 2012). This makes the gold mining industry one of the

country’s most important industries, and an essential industry to study.

Similar to gold mining in other African countries (see Gajigo, Mutambatsere, and Mdiaya

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Input:
In conclusion, the protection incidents evidenced in the analysis partially overview the situation in both countries
where the data were collected. The number of protection incidents and victims is higher than what is represented
in this report for September 2022. In DRC, the new protection monitoring platform still needs to be fully deployed
countrywide, and efforts are underway to have data that will reflect the real situation. In Mozambique, the data
reported in this report concerns only one province, Cabo Delgado, where the protection monitoring is implemented.
Efforts are also underway to have functioning protection monitoring in the rest of the affected provinces.

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Input:
REGIONAL BUREAU FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA

###### **POPULATION OF CONCERN IN SOUTHERN AFRICA REGION**

30 September 2022

**PoCs IN SOUTHERN** **AFRICA REGION***

**521,512** **REF**

**41,283** **REF**

**13,762** **ASY**

**1,291** **ASY**

**5,526,022** **IDP**

**REF**

**ASY**

**OOC**

**RET**

**KEY FIGURES**

## **8,572,919**

Total Population of concern

###### **1,099,585**

Refugees, asylum-seekers, other
of concern & returnees**

**785,119**

**278,090**

**36,165**

**211**

###### **7,473,334**

Conflict induced and Natural Disaster IDPs

Natural Disaster IDPs

**528,466**

**7%**

**6,419,356**

**86%**

IDPs RET

**525,512**

**7.0%**

do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations

**Author: UNHCR DIMA - RSA** Contact : rsarbdima@unhcr.org **Source:** UNHCR Primes, Government, IOM, OCHA, UNHCR

**Author: UNHCR DIMA - RSA** Contact : rsarbdima@unhcr.org **Source: REF, ASY, OOC, RET** (UNHCR PRIMES, Government); **IDP DRC** (OCHA); IDP Zimbabwe & Mozambique (IOM); **IDP ROC** (Government, Ministry of Social Affairs and Humanitarian Action (MASAH).

*PoCs = Persons of Concern   ** REF = Refugee; ASY = Asylum-seeker; OOC = Other person of concern; RET = Returnee. DRC = Democratic Republic of the Congo  ROC = Republic of the Congo Date of creation : 30 September
2022

For more information visit: UNHCR Data Portal

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Input:
### **OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHT**

##### **September/ October 2023 report**

###### Venezuela

**Some key achievements**

- Humanitarian Needs Overview (HNO)

Process

- Coordination with other platforms,

subnational Clusters, ICCG, and Partners

- Accountability for Affected Populations

(AAP) WG

- GPC Townhall

- La Carnada Play

- Annual TiP Bulletin 2022-2023

- Food Security and Livelihoods (FSL) and

Trafficking in Persons (TiP)

- Monthly Meetings of the WGTiP

- Protection Mainstreaming Training

- Training on Mixed Migration and Durable

Solutions

- Reporting Transition to 345W

- Focal Group Discussions with LGBTIQ+

Organizations for Thematic Protection

Analysis Update (PAU)

- Mental Health and Psychosocial Support

(MHPSS) Coaching and Training of Trainers

(ToT)

- Participation in the Gender ToT for

Government Officials

**4**

**I. Humanitarian Program Cycle**

**2024: Humanitarian Needs**

**Overview (HNO) Process**

**September was dedicated to identi-**

**fying and define indicators and the**

**local adjustment of severity scales**

**for People in Need (PIN) and Needs**

**Severity Calculation as part of the**

**Humanitarian Needs Overview (HNO)**

**process.** The indicators defined for the

Protection Cluster (PC) Severity and PIN

calculation are Protection Risks, Protec
tion Risks linked to trafficking in person,

Access to Documentation, Access to

the Justice System, Negative Coping

Mechanisms in Protection, Violent

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Input:
**than native workers.** There may be different reasons for this
as perhaps immigrants have character traits that make them more inclined towards entrepreneurial activity (unclear in the case of refugees), or maybe it is a way to avoid occupational downgrading as immigrants find it difficult to prove their educational and professional credentials from home countries.
Notwithstanding the reason, such effects are observed across the OECD countries (OECD, 2011). In a recent paper, Anelli, Basso, Ippedico, and Peri (2023) look at Italian data, finding that one standard deviation increase in emigration rate generates 4.8% decline of business formation in the municipality of origin.
The authors use existing migration networks to ensure causality of the results. Nevertheless, it is unclear whether immigrantcreated businesses are more successful from the native ones, but one could speculate that a higher rate of trying new business ideas spurs more successes.

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Input:
Outcomes were relatively consistent across types of support. Those who accessed only formal support (e.g., psychotherapy or structured group interventions) reported improvement in 88% of cases (with 34% stating “yes” and 54% reporting “slight” improvement). Individuals relying on only informal support (e.g., help from friends, family, or employers) reported improvement in 91% of cases, with slightly fewer reporting “yes” (29%) and a higher percentage indicating “slight” improvement (62%). Meanwhile, those who accessed both formal and informal support were slightly more likely to state “yes” regarding improvement (40%), with 51% indicating “slight” improvement (for a total of 91% of cases reporting some improvement). Although differences are small, results imply that a combination of support types may be associated with enhanced perceived effectiveness. Further research is needed to explore this potential relationship.

These findings demonstrate that, overall, those who accessed support perceived this support to be beneficial. Results reinforce the importance of integrating both formal and informal support mechanisms to maximize positive outcomes, as well as tailoring interventions to demographic and country-specific needs to enhance the well-being of individuals receiving MHPSS services. The data also

**23**

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Input:
Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (DTTL), its global network of member firms, and their related entities (collectively, the “Deloitte organization”). DTTL (also referred to as “Deloitte Global”) and each of its member firms and related entities are legally separate and independent entities, which cannot obligate or bind each other in respect of third parties. DTTL and each DTTL member firm and related entity is liable only for its own acts and omissions, and not those of each other. DTTL does not provide services to clients. Please see www.deloitte.com/about to learn more.

Deloitte provides industry-leading audit and assurance, tax and legal, consulting, financial advisory, and risk advisory services to nearly 90% of the Fortune Global 500® and thousands of private companies. Our people deliver measurable and lasting results that help reinforce public trust in capital markets, enable clients to transform and thrive, and lead the way toward a stronger economy, a more equitable society, and a sustainable world. Building on its 175-plus year history, Deloitte spans more than 150 countries and territories. Learn how Deloitte’s approximately 457,000 people worldwide make an impact that matters at www.deloitte.com.

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Input:
HIGH EMPLOYMENT RATES, BUT LOW WAGES: A POVERTY ASSESSMENT OF UKRAINIAN REFUGEES IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES

**Republic of Moldova: the case for housing costs corrections in income-based poverty metrics**

Data from the Republic of Moldova highlights the limitations of poverty metrics that rely solely on disposable income, as they fail to account for vulnerability related to asset ownership. Based on income alone, the 2024 poverty rate suggests that Ukrainian refugees are able to attain a higher standard of living than their hosts, with only 10% living in poverty compared to 32% of Moldovans. This apparent disparity is largely driven by the sizeable financial support that Ukrainians received from humanitarian organizations in 2024, which amounted to 44% of their total household income. While the above comparison could suggest that the provided aid is excessive, such an interpretation overlooks an important factor – namely that only 5% of Moldovans incur rental expenses compare to 41% of refugees. In fact, including utilities, housing costs were estimated to consume 46% of refugees’ disposable income (inclusive of humanitarian aid), whereas they account for just 14% for Moldovan households. In essence, these findings indicate that refugees are using the entirety of their aid to cover accommodation needs. Adjusting disposable income at the household level to reflect these additional housing expenses raises the poverty rate for refugees to 43%, surpassing that of Moldovans.

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Input:
Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

#### **2.2 Current occupational situation**

Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland Administrative ZUS data can be used as a proxy for both average and _gross_ earnings percentages. On June 30, 2024, average bases for social contributions of Ukrainian refugees accounted for just 64% of those of Polish citizens. However, this is only relative to Polish citizens not all workers in the economy as a whole, and comes with other caveats of administrative instead of survey data sources – data given on a particular day instead of period average, the shadow economy unaccounted for, different contributions based on the type of contract, no data for farmers who belong to a separate social insurance scheme.
Also, the ZUS data, that is available, is much more limited that the SEIS survey data primarily used in this report.

**Ukrainian refugees in Poland have**

**clearly improved their economic**

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Input:
**age.** The best population data available
is the regularly updated active PESEL database. [4] According to the registry, 61.5% of the registered are women and 38.5% are men. The database also includes the age of PESEL UKR holders, which indicates that over half (57.4%), i.e. more than 560 thousand people, are of working age (18-65). While the male and female shares of people below 18 years of age (20% and 19%, respectively) and 66+ (1% and 3%) are similar, there is a large difference among productive-age individuals, with women 18-65 making up 40% and men only 18% of Ukrainian refugee population. This is largely due to the conscription of military aged men in Ukraine.

66+ 56-65 46-55 36-45 26-35 18-25 <18

---
[4] Available in the repository maintained by the government https://dane.gov.pl/pl/dataset/2715 as well as UNHCR data portal https://app.powerbi.com/

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Input:
HIGH EMPLOYMENT RATES, BUT LOW WAGES: A POVERTY ASSESSMENT OF UKRAINIAN REFUGEES IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES

**HOUSEHOLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION BY SOURCE AND POVERTY CATEGORY**

Employment Family support Social protection (host country) Old age pension (Ukraine) 12% 67% Social protection (Ukraine) 35% Humanitarian cash 8% 13% 23% 6% Other 5% 3% 3% 5% Below the poverty line Below the poverty line after housing cost correction Above the poverty line after housing cost correction Source: Survey data, SAG estimates 26% 88%

**Higher employment earnings were the main driver behind the drop in poverty rates from**

**2023**

The mean monthly equivalized household income [12] of Ukrainian refugees across the seven countries surveyed in both rounds increased by 38% from last year, to an equivalent of EUR 763. This increase was much higher than the 4% rise in the regional poverty threshold over the same time.

Approximately 90% of the increase in refugee household income can be attributed to higher employment earnings, driven by a combination of rising employment rates and wage growth. A significantly smaller, though still notable, contribution came from increased financial support from families in Ukraine, although this finding may partially be an artifact of adjustments to the survey questionnaire [13] .

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Input:
_UNHCR
 Discussion
 Paper
 –15
 June
 2013_

engagement
 of
 key
 partners,
 including
 relevant
 development
 actors
 and
 the
 private
sector
 since
 the
 early
 stage
 will
 be
 a
 crucial
 component
 of
 UNHCR’s
 strategy.

Current
 co-‐ordination
 fora
 include
 the
 South-‐East
 Consultation
 Platform,
 led
 by
 UNHCR,
consisting
 of
 UN,
 NGO,
 donors,
 Government
 and
 other
 partners,
 including
 the
 Myanmar
Peace
 Centre
 (MPC) [9] .
 This
 currently
 meets
 every
 2-‐3
 months
 in
 Yangon.
 The
 objective
 of
the
 Platform
 is
 to
 maintain
 a
 common
 understanding
 of
 the
 operational
 environment
and
 challenges
 in
 the
 South-‐East
 and
 to
 forge
 strategic
 partnerships.
 UNHCR
 also
 chairs
the
 National
 Protection
 Working
 Group.

Monthly
 inter-‐agency
 co-‐ordination
 meetings,
 chaired
 by
 UNHCR
 and
 attended
 by
humanitarian
 partners,
 are
 currently
 held
 in
 Mawlamyine
 (Mon
 State),
 Taungoo
 (Bago
Region),
 and
 Myeik
 and
 Dawei
 (Tanintharyi
 Region).
 Inter-‐agency
 meetings
 also
 take
place
 in
 Loikaw
 (Kayah
 State),
 chaired
 on
 a
 rotational
 basis
 amongst
 agencies.

In
 January
 2013,
 UNHCR
 also
 initiated
 cross-‐border
 meetings
 between
 UNHCR
Myanmar
 and
 UNHCR
 Thailand.

---
[9] The
 Myanmar
 Government
 draft
 Framework
 for
 Economic
 and
 Social
 Reform
 2012-‐2015
 tasks
 the

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Input:
**WEIGHTED AVERAGE MONTHLY EQUIVALIZED INCOME EVOLUTION, EUR**

800 600 400 200 0 Equivalized income 2023 Employment Family Host country income support social protection Ukraine social protection (inc.
pensions) Humanitarian Other Equivalized cash income 2024 Note: Only includes data from the 7 countries surveyed in both rounds (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Republic of Moldova, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia) Source: Survey data, SAG estimates 12. Household disposable income adjusted for size, as per Eurostat’s methodology 13. The 2024 survey probed for income from family in Ukraine more explicitly

**9**

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Input:
The established mechanisms in refugee camps and in N’Djamena to ensure substantial refugee participation
at local levels remain functional. This includes elected committees representing refugees, along with separate
committees for men, women and children/young individuals. Sectoral committees such as those for livelihoods,
child protection, education and healthcare are also still active. Additionally, inclusive and mixed committees
of leaders or sectoral representatives in refugee hosting villages continue to facilitate interaction between
members of both communities, addressing both general and specific issues. During the COVID-19 pandemic,
when physical access to refugees became difficult due to government restrictions, alternative communication
methods (e.g. posters, banners, radio announcements, phone calls and SMS), and mobile protection teams,
were utilized by CNARR to stay in touch with refugee communities.

**2.4** **Access to civil registration and documentation**

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Input:
Similarly to the above results, an early analysis by Gromadzki and Lewandowski (2023) found no impact on the employment rate or unemployment rate. In a peerreviewed scientific article, they examined the impact of Ukrainian refugees on the labour market outcomes of Polish women from January to April 2022 (as most Ukrainian refugees are female). They found that the proportion of Ukrainian refugees in a given poviat had no statistically significant impact on the employment rate or unemployment rate of Polish women.

Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

**Chart 29. Effect of a 1 pp. change in employment share of Ukrainian refugees on gross wage change**
Cross-section model of all 380 poviats in 2023. Results are statistically significant at a 0.01 level.

200 150 100 50 0 OLS IV (pupils) IV (2019) IV (both)

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Input:
because of the nature of the data. Panel A uses three variables that reflect conditions around the

year of birth of the child. Note that women report their birth history, in what year the child was

born, and the baby’s health. She reports this information in the survey year, but retroactively,

recollecting the year of birth. Therefore, we deem that the birth year mining activity is more

relevant than the survey year mining activity for the outcomes in Panel A. In particular, we test

if an active mine nearby in the birth year of the child influences the baby’s size at birth, infant

mortality, and the number of antenatal visits. In Panel B we use the main specification of mining

activity in the survey year, as these variables are more reflective of current conditions in the

survey year than past conditions around the time of the birth.

Panel A of table 5 shows that infants in active mine communities are less likely to be born large,

and that the mother had insignificantly fewer prenatal visits. However, infant mortality

decreases by 4 percentage points. Splitting the sample by gender, we note that this decrease is

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Input:
# Abstract

The beginning of the full-scale war in Ukraine in February 2022 resulted in a large outflow of refugees, reaching more than 6 million globally.

Much of this exodus happened through the Polish border. As of October 2023, almost 1 million Ukrainian refugees were living in Poland. While in the past decade Poland experienced large labour migration from Ukraine, the refugee inflow had a different demographic composition.
It primarily included working age women (41%) and children (40%). These refugees from Ukraine did not plan to move, and many had special needs. Despite these difficulties, refugees began entering the labour market surprisingly quickly – attaining an employment rate of 28% in May 2022 and 65% in November 2022 (NBP, 2023). By July-August 2023 Ukrainian refugee households supported themselves, with 80% of their incomes coming from work. [1]

---
[1] Deloitte calculations based on Multi-Sector Needs Assessment Poland 2023 survey data provided by UNHCR.

Multi-Sector Needs Assessment Poland 2023 survey data

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Input:
Power BI Desktop Somalia’s Solutions Pathways The Department of Poverty Reduction and Durable Solutions of the Ministry of Planning, Investments, and Economic Development (MoPIED) in Somalia continues to play a leading role in overseeing and addressing solutions to internal displacement in the country.
In 2024, the department conducted a series of durable solutions pathways consultations across all federal member states and the Banadir Regional Administration (BRA), resulting in the National Solutions Pathways Action Plan. These consultations aimed to identify key approaches to facilitate the durable solutions pathways of one million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) from their displacement situations, in alignment with the National Durable Solutions Strategy, the National Development Plan and the United Nations Secretary-General’s Action Agenda on Internal Displacement, emphasising three interconnected goals: achieving durable solutions, ensuring protection and assistance, and preventing future displacement.
Baseline Analysis This document presents key quantitative data under each of the six Solutions Pathways: 1) Government leadership, 2) Access to Basic Services, 3) Employment and Livelihood Opportunities, 4) Legal Documentation, HLP and Access to Justice, 5) Climate Change and Resilience. Pathway 6 refers to Data for Solutions, which is cross-cutting and covers MoPIED's Durable Solutions Progress (DSP) Survey, was supported by IOM Somalia in 2024. Data from this survey is presented under each of the six pathways in this document. Data collected by UNHCR related to protection and conflict sensitivity is also presented, highlighting key cross-cutting issues to consider in implementing the plan.

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While
 UNHCR
 has
 been
 present
 and
 operational
 in
 South-‐East
 Myanmar
 since
 2004,
 the
UNHCR
 framework
 for
 co-‐operation
 with
 the
 Government
 of
 the
 Union
 of
 Myanmar
 in
the
 South-‐East
 is
 defined
 by
 a
 draft
 Letter
 of
 Understanding
 (LOU)
 with
 its
 line
 Ministry,
the
 Ministry
 of
 Border
 Affairs
 (NaTaLa).
 The
 LOU
 articulates
 UNHCR
 and
 NaTaLa’s
responsibilities
 in
 regard
 to
 the
 implementation
 of
 programmes
 aimed
 at
 improving
livelihoods
 in
 communities
 affected
 by
 displacement,
 reducing
 the
 risk
 of
 further
displacement,
 and
 specifically
 creating
 the
 appropriate
 conditions
 for
 return
 for
 IDPs
and
 refugees.
 The
 current
 LOU,
 which
 includes
 Kayin,
 Mon,
 Kayah,
 Shan
 and
 Chin
 States,
and
 Bago
 and
 Tanintharyi
 Regions,
 was
 signed
 on
 10
 June
 2013.

Once
 the
 required
 safeguards
 are
 in
 place
 for
 the
 return
 of
 refugees
 and
 an
 organized
programme
 is
 to
 be
 launched,
 a
 tripartite
 agreement
 between
 Myanmar,
 Thailand
 and
UNCHR
 should
 form
 the
 main
 legal
 framework
 for
 the
 voluntary
 repatriation
 and

6
 Executive
 Committee
 Conclusion
 29
 of
 1983
 calls
 upon
 Governments
 to
 facilitate
 the
 work
 of
 UNHCR
 “in
creating
 conditions
 favourable
 to
 and
 promoting
 voluntary
 repatriation,
 which
 whenever
 appropriate
 and
feasible
 is
 the
 most
 desirable
 solution
 for
 refugee
 problems.”
 Also
 refer
 to
 Executive
 Committee
 Conclusions

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Input:
NAVIGATING HEALTH AND WELL-BEING CHALLENGES FOR REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE

### **Social cohesion and** **MHPSS**

An association between perceived hostility and mental health challenges remains evident across the region, with households experiencing hostility in their social environment more likely to report mental health and psychosocial problems (44%) compared to those not experiencing hostility (31%). Perceived hostility may increase vulnerability to distress, while distress may in turn influence individuals to perceive their environments as more hostile, creating a reinforcing cycle. This trend is consistent across countries, with notable between-country differences: Romania continues to report the highest percentage of problems both for households experiencing hostility (64%) and those not experiencing hostility (49%), while Czechia consistently reports the lowest percentages in both categories (24% and 20%, respectively). Significant differences also emerged between countries such as Hungary and Moldova, where the prevalence of mental health and psychosocial problems in households experiencing hostility is relatively high (63% and 56%, respectively), but the prevalence among those not experiencing hostility diverges dramatically (32% in Hungary versus 16% in Moldova). These findings highlight the importance of addressing perceived hostility and its impact on mental health, through targeted, country-specific MHPSS and social cohesion interventions.

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Input:
UNHCR
 ProGres
 data
 on
 the
 83,044
 registered
 refugees
 in
 Thailand
 indicates
 an
estimated
 84
 per
 cent
 are
 ethnic
 Karen
 and
 12
 per
 cent
 are
 ethnic
 Karenni.
 The
remaining
 4
 per
 cent
 are
 of
 Burman,
 Shan,
 and
 Mon
 descent,
 and
 other
 groups.
 The
majority
 of
 registered
 refugees
 come
 from
 Kayin
 State
 (65.3
 per
 cent),
 followed
 by
Kayah
 (14.6
 per
 cent),
 Tanintharyi
 (7.3
 per
 cent),
 Bago
 (5.2
 per
 cent)
 and
 Mon
 (5
 per
cent).
 (Annex:
 Myanmar
 Thailand
 Border
 –
 Refugee
 Overview,
 as
 of
 end
 of
 March
 2013)

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Input:
Securing
 durable
 solutions
 is
 fundamentally
 linked
 to
 the
 restoration
 of
 national
capacity
 to
 provide
 for
 the
 protection
 and
 welfare
 of
 formerly
 displaced
 communities,
and
 UNHCR’s
 role
 should
 be
 designed
 to
 support
 such
 an
 outcome,
 through
 systematic
engagement
 with
 key
 Government
 counterparts,
 civil
 society
 and
 other
 national
stakeholders.

National
 authorities
 have
 primary
 responsibility
 to
 secure
 durable
 solutions
 for
 those
who
 have
 been
 formerly
 displaced,
 while
 UNHCR
 and
 other
 humanitarian
 and
development
 actors
 have
 a
 complementary
 role.

Co-‐ordination
 and
 multi-‐sector
 engagement
 is
 also
 critical
 to
 the
 sustainable
reintegration
 of
 refugees
 and
 durable
 solutions
 for
 IDPs [8] .
 Therefore,
 mobilising
 the

---
[8] See
 UNHCR’s
 2008
 Policy
 on
 the
 Return
 and
 Reintegration
 of
 Refugees
 and
 IDPs,
 and
 the
 2011
 Secretary-‐

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Input:
**Table 13 Effects of gold production at the district level on employment**

Panel A: Using production in the previous period
(3) (4)
not agriworking culture

(3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (1) (2)
not agri- service or profess- manual earns works all
working culture sales ional work cash year

gold period 0.003 -0.009** 0.003* 0.004*** -0.002 -0.001 0.008**
district (0.004) (0.004) (0.002) (0.002) (0.004) (0.002) (0.003)

(4)
agriculture

(5)
service or
sales

(6)
professional

(7)
manual
work

(1)
earns
cash

observations 19,175 19,175 19,175 19,175 19,175 19,270 15,991
R-squared 0.207 0.327 0.127 0.137 0.037 0.213 0.278
PANEL B. Using production in the same year
(3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (1) (2)
not agri- service profess- manual earns works
working culture or sales ional work cash all year

gold year 0.012 -0.033 0.020 0.019* -0.018 -0.010 0.041***
district (0.022) (0.025) (0.013) (0.011) (0.015) (0.009) (0.008)

observations 19,175 19,175 19,175 19,175 19,175 19,270 15,991
R-squared 0.207 0.327 0.128 0.137 0.037 0.213 0.278

_Note:_ Robust standard errors clustered at the district level in parentheses. All regressions control for year and
district fixed effects, urban dummy, age, and years of education. *** p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1.

**7.3 Investigating spillovers**

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During the 2019 Global Refugee Forum, the Government of Chad committed, among other things, to
issuing biometric Refugee Identity Cards and Machine-Readable Refugee Convention Travel Documents
(MRCTDs) to meet international standards. A study by the National Agency for Secure Documents (Agence
Nationale des Titres Sécurisés, ANATS), the only competent authority for issuing biometric identity and
travel documents, outlined a technical proposal released in March 2023 for the project’s implementation,
but financial resources are currently lacking to operationalize this pledge. As of 30 June 2023, no biometric
identity card neither CTD has been delivered by the competent national authorities (ANATS) to refugees.

The 2023 Decree specifies that CNARR and UNHCR collaboratively handle the reception and pre-registration
of new arrivals at the international border, following the completion of police formalities. The pre-registration
specifically pertains to situations involving arrivals in groups. In practice, the entire registration of newly
arrived asylum-seekers remains jointly conducted by CNARR and UNHCR. This involves collecting all the

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Input:
migrants can thus in part be because a less-well-off part of the population chooses to migrate to

mining areas, not that they are made worse off because of the mine activities.

We also explored a decomposition of the anthropometric results along the migration division,

but we found no important differences.

**Figure 5 Diarrheal incidence among children under 5 by migration status**

**Panel A Nonmigrants** **Panel B Migrants**

24

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Input: 9 These employment rates are very close to the ones from the Polish central bank surveys of Ukrainian refugees, which showed 62% in July 2023 and 68% in July 2024 (NBP, 2024). NBP (2024) age group was slightly different, describing adults as 18 years or older.

Polish central bank surveys of Ukrainian refugees

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Input:
only in conjunction with policies for local procurement. Moreover, some of the mining-related

papers have focused on mining in an African context, exploring a range of outcomes, including

HIV-transmission and sexual risk taking (Corno and de Walque 2012; Wilson 2012), women’s

empowerment (Benshaul-Tolonen 2018), infant mortality (Benshaul-Tolonen, 2019) and labor

market outcomes (Kotsadam and Tolonen 2016). Mining is also associated with more economic

activity measured by nightlights (Benshaul-Tolonen, 2019; Mamo et al, 2019).

Kotsadam and Tolonen (2016) use DHS data from Africa, and find that mine openings cause

women to shift from agriculture to service production and that women become more likely to

work for cash and year-round as opposed to seasonally. Continuing this analysis, Benshaul

Tolonen (2018) explores the links between mining and female empowerment in eight gold

producing countries in East and West Africa, including Ghana. Women in gold mining

communities have more diversified labor markets opportunities, better access to health care,

and are less likely to accept domestic violence. In addition, infant mortality rates decrease with

up to 50% in mining communities, from very high initial levels (Benshaul-Tolonen, 2019). In

a study that focuses exclusively on Ghana, Aragón and Rud (2013) explore the link between

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Land ownership remains a complex issue in the absence of a codified land law, and the general regime
of land ownership, encompassing both formal and traditional rights, has not undergone any changes in
the past three years. Customary and Islamic laws continue to govern access to and control of land and
natural resources in urban and rural areas. While these customary systems vary considerably across the

R E F U G E E P O L I C Y R E V I E W F R A M E W O R K > **R E P U B L I C O F C H A D** 9

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**qualification compared to Polish**

**citizens.** While the proportion of
individuals with tertiary education among refugees is slightly higher than among Polish citizens (40% vs 38%), only 12% of refugees work as managers, professionals, and technicians (occupational groups usually requiring higher education) compared to 37% of Poles. Consequently, the wage premium for individuals with tertiary education is much lower among refugees than among Poles (22% vs 84%).

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Input:
mining companies in Ghana was 3 percent until 2010, which was the average rate for gold

production in Africa (Gajigo, Mutambatsere, and Mdiaya 2012), but increased to 5 percent in

2010 (Standing and Hilson 2013). Of this money, 80 percent goes to the general government

budget, 10 percent goes to the administration of mining oversight, and 10 percent supports

district administration (Garvin et al. 2009). Between 1993 and 1998, about US$17 million was

distributed to local mining communities (Aryee 2001). While considered a model of best

practice, there is still a worry that the beneficial effects of allocations to the districts are

undermined by elite capture and corruption at the district level (Standing and Hilson 2013). For

our analysis, the scheme implies that it may be necessary to conduct a district-level analysis in

addition to the more local-level analyses.

12 currently active mines dominate the sector, and there are an additional five suspended mines

that have been in production in recent decades. Table 1 presents a full list of the mines, the year

they opened, and their status as of December 2012. Company name and country are for the

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Input: Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland Refugees from Ukraine are not yet utilising their full potential in the Polish labour market. In May 2022, 46% of arriving refugees declared that they had no knowledge of the Polish language (NBP, 2023). Over time, this percentage improved, with data from November 2022 showing a result of 21%, though this still represents a large group of people who do not know the local language [24], placing them at risk of limiting possible jobs to those below their educational level. Nearly 40% of Refugees from Ukraine insured at ZUS on 30th June 2023 in Poland were employed in elementary occupations [25], while for all employed persons in Q2 2023 this percentage was only 5%. Furthermore, the Deloitte Ukraine Refugee Pulse report indicates that 50% of respondents point to language barriers as an obstacle to accessing services to meet basic needs (Deloitte, 2023). Meanwhile, in the MSNA Poland 2023 survey, when asked about encountered barriers for accessing the labour market, 34% of respondents pointed to lack of language knowledge.

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**migrants was challenging to quantify.**
Since the onset of the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine in 2014, there was a consistent influx of Ukrainians into Poland.
Many of them sought work as Ukraine’s economy declined and the currency devalued. Most of the migrants came as guest workers, a status brought in by a 2011 law enabling Ukrainians and five other nations to work in Poland for six months Source: Deloitte own elaboration based on Polish Border Guard Headquarter and PESEL data.

PESEL-UKR data Total entries-exits of the Polish-Ukrainian border during a year without a work permit, based on an employer’s declaration. This was a circular migration, with Ukrainians coming to Poland for half of the year, then returning to Ukraine for another six months, and coming back to Poland. The data on employers’ declarations do not reveal the actual number of Ukrainian citizens who followed this system – a single person could hold several declarations, because with every change of employer or promotion at the same employer they had to ask for a new declaration. What is more, with stays shorter than one year,

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Increased competition on the labour market could partially offset benefits from refugees. Although (due to a tight labour market) increase in labour force is almost entirely absorbed into working force, there should be slight increase in unemployment rate. Ultimately, it is estimated that it was higher by 0.14-0.25 pp. in 2022 and by 0.18-0.3 pp in 2023 which corresponds to respectively 24-42 thousand and 33-54 thousand additional people being unemployed [45] . In the long run, the unemployment rate should remain higher by 0.15-0.3 pp. Because of that, it is estimated that growth of real wages was slower in 2022 and 2023. It is estimated that due to the influx of refugees, real wages were lower in 2022 by 0.45-0.85% and in 2023 by 0.65-1.15%. Although in effect this is negative, it also means lower inflationary pressure from the labour market in the short term. Long-term real wages should be around 0.55-1.0% lower than in a scenario without refugees.
That said, the actual labour market effect is likely to be null as evidenced by econometric studies (Gromadzki and Lewandowski, 2023; Peri, 2014), which are elaborated on in Chapter 4. Gromadzki and Lewandowski (2023) in the early months of 2022 find no effect of Ukrainian refugees on earnings, employment, and unemployment rate of natives and other immigrants, except an actual slight positive impact on the wages of native women.

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Input:
Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

# **1.** Inflow of refugees from Ukraine into Poland

##### Even before the 2022 full-scale war in Ukraine the number of Ukrainians in Poland was substantial and growing, although their precise number is difficult to measure.

Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

**Chart 1.** Ukrainian workers with social insurance.

Rate of change (right axis) Number (left axis)

**Source:** Deloitte own elaboration based on ZUS data.

1000 750 500 250 0 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

-20%

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Input:
**higher productivity.** In a simplistic
supply-demand framework, the influx of Ukrainian refugees would have had a negative impact on Polish workers employment or caused a decline in real wages. However, this has not occurred.
First, Polish citizens employment rates have grown, and unemployment rates have fallen. Second, poviats in which the employment share of Ukrainian refugees has grown by 1 pp. saw 0.5 pp. higher employment rates among Polish citizens, and 0.3 pp. lower unemployment rates.
Third, there is no evidence of lowered wages, in fact the limited available data indicates that a higher share of Ukrainian refugees in a poviat may have caused local wages to rise. Such findings are in line with academic literature, which documents a positive impact of migrants on native workers. With foreigners entering the 04 Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

**Addressing the remaining issues of**

**refugee integration into the labour**

**market would improve their situation**

**and further benefit the Polish**

**economy.** The key measures to improve
refugees' standing include advanced language courses for professionals, easing of occupational licensing, especially requirements based on citizenship, and active labour market policies to help specific groups enter the labour market.

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Input:
## **Works cited**

[1] UNHCR, ‘Global Report 2023 - Executive Summary’, UNHCR, Geneva, Jun. 2024. Accessed: Jul. 13, 2024. [Online]. Available:
https://reporting.unhcr.org/global-report-2023-executive-summary

[2] UNHCR, ‘This is our home: stateless minorities and their search for citizenship’, 2017, [Online]. Available:
https://www.unhcr.org/ibelong/wp-content/uploads/UNHCR_EN2_2017IBELONG_Report_ePub.pdf

[3] D. S. Weissbrodt and C. Collins, ‘The Human Rights of Stateless Persons’, _hrq_, vol. 28, no. 1, pp. 245–276, Feb. 2006, doi:
10.1353/hrq.2006.0013.

[4] E. Abuya, ‘Out of the Shadows: towards ensuring the rights of stateless persons and persons at risk of statelessness in Kenya’, Kenya
National Commission on Human Rights (KNCHR) and UNHCR, Nairobi, Jul. 2010. [Online]. Available:
https://www.unhcr.org/media/out-shadows-towards-ensuring-rights-stateless-persons-and-persons-risk-statelessness-kenya

[5] B. Blitz and M. Lynch, ‘Statelessness and the Benefits of Citizenship: A Comparative Study.’, _Statelessness and Citizenship: A Comparative_
_Study on the Benefits of Nationality_, Jan. 2011.

[6] S. W. Goodman, ‘Citizenship Studies: Policy Causes and Consequences’, _Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci._, vol. 26, no. 1, pp. 135–152, Jun. 2023, doi:
10.1146/annurev-polisci-051921-102729.

[7] UNHCR, ‘High-Level Segment on Statelessness: Results and Highlights’. Accessed: Oct. 10, 2024. [Online]. Available:
https://www.unhcr.org/ibelong/high-level-segment-on-statelessness-results-and-highlights/

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Input:
REGIONAL BUREAU OF SOUTHERN AFRICA

PROTECTION MONITORING DASHBOARD ON INCIDENTS IN DRC AND MOZAMBIQUE

As of 30 September 2022

MAP SHOWING THE NUMBER OF REPORTED PROTECTION INCIDENTS PER

Province in Mozambique

(MOZ) covered by
protection monitoring

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Input:
Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland An ageing population coupled with a growing economy causes labour shortages. Despite falling number of available workers, the Polish economy is growing steadily, as it modernises and converges to the level of development of old EU Member States. Despite the Covid-19 pandemic, real GDP growth averaged 3.7% during the last decade. As a result, due to steady demand for labour since 2019, the harmonised unemployment rate in Poland has not exceeded 4%, oscillating around 3% in recent years. According to Eurostat data, in September 2023, harmonized unemployment in Poland reached 2.8%, the same level as Malta. In the entire EU, only the Czech Republic reached a lower level: 2.7%.
Vacancies stood at record heights before

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Input:
NAVIGATING HEALTH AND WELL-BEING CHALLENGES FOR REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE For households with a member with disability, health was the top priority with 56% of households reporting this as priority need compared to 30% of those without disability. Likewise, 45% of households with chronic illnesses identified healthcare access as their top priority, whereas households without chronically ill members ranked it fourth, with only 22% considering it a priority need. This indicates a modest decrease compared to 2023 when 58% of households with a member with disability and 48% of those with individuals with a chronic illness cited health as their top priority.

### **Need to access** **health care**

Regionally, 31% of individuals experienced health problems 30 days prior to the survey and needed to access health care. The reported experience of health problems was higher among under-fives (37%) and those over the age of 60 (60%), and it was higher among women above 18 years (36%) compared to men (31%). The discrepancies between women and men in terms of experiencing a health problem is particularly pronounced in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, where the rates of experiencing a health problem are 10% higher among women compared to men.

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Input:
a 22 percent increase in service sector participation. However, this effect is only statistically

significant at the 10 percent level, possibly due to the small sample size within that distance.

This is in contrast to the dummy for 0-20 km which is insignificant, pointing highly localized

effects on service sector employment for women. Using distance bin of 30 km, we estimate

zero treatment effect on the probability of service sector employment. Panel B of figure 4 shows

the results for cash-earning opportunities, and similarly, we estimate positive treatment effects

within 20 km.

In panel C of Figure 4, infant mortality is re-estimated using different distance spans. The

decrease in child mortality decreases almost linearly with the increase in distance bins, an

indication that the effects are only found close to a mine. The largest drop, and the only

significantly negative drop, is found for the distance bin 0–20 km.

**Figure 4 Varying the cutoff distance: Service sector employment, cash earnings, and infant**

**mortality**

**Panel A Service and sales** **Panel B Cash earnings            Panel C Infant mortality**

20

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