Input: experiences of their friends and neighbors. Evidence in the developed world shows that purchases of flood and earthquake insurance in the United States are greatly influenced by recent experiences with disasters and insurance payouts, that peoples’ insurance decisions are influenced by their friends and neighbors’ experiences with insurance (Kunreuther, Sanderson, and Vetschera 1985; Gallagher 2014). Reacting to Daniel Stein is a senior economist at IDinsight; his email address is [Daniel.stein@idinsight.org.](mailto:Daniel.stein@idinsight.org) This work would not have been possible without the assistance of the insurance staff at BASIX, especially Sridhar Reddy, for help in obtaining and understanding their customer database. Thanks to Tim Besley, Greg Fischer, Gani Aldashev, and Xavier Giné for giving helpful advice and commenting on earlier drafts. Thanks to participants at the Munich Re 6th Annual Microinsurance Conference, the Midwestern International Economic Development Conference, seminars at the London School of Economics, University of Namur, and KU Leuven for helpful comments. All remaining errors are my own. A supplemental appendix to this article [is available at https://academic.oup.com/wber.](https://academic.oup.com/wber) 1 CIA World Factbook: India; Indiastat.com. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK. All [rights reserved. For

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Input: and sharing of technical and institutional analyses to help the project designs be closely aligned and synergistic; (ii) the administrative and legislative processes for project approval by the Government are expected to take place at the same time as the IDB-financed project; and (iii) project implementation will be carried out in close coordination with the IDBfinanced project. An example of complementarity is on the pedagogical reform, with the proposed Project focused on foundational learning, while the IDB financed project would deepen the impact with support to a wider curricular reform. The efforts of both projects in supporting MEP’s digitalization agenda are included as an operational core of an ongoing regional effort between the two Banks under the Memorandum of Understanding on strategic areas including reducing the digital access gap. 16. **Costa Rica recently received a positive IMF review of the overall Government program, which bodes well for** **MEP, especially as MEP reforms are geared towards sustainability** . [22] An important consideration of the reform program is that the planned interventions do not require a level of investment that would put inordinate fiscal pressure regarding the MEP budget. Expenditures such as the investments planned for the digitalization agenda of the MEP

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Input: School](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2024/01/11/djibouti-giving-refugee-children-a-chance-to-go-to-school) 9 The Ministry of Health and UNHCR signed a cooperation agreement in 2018 for the inclusion of refugees in the national health system 10 Government of Djibouti (2024), Stratégie Livelihoods et Inclusion Economique Djibouti 2024 – 2028 11 UNHCR, African Development Bank Group, IGAD, EAC (2024), Regional Report Draft: Regional Program on Enhancing the Investment Climate for the Economic Empowerment of Refugee, Returnee and Host/Return Community Women in the East and Horn of Africa and Great Lakes Region. Page 4

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Input: Some coastal zones in our study area invest significant resources in damage prevention via polder construction and other measures, while others offer compensation once cyclone-related damage has occurred. Incorporation of controls from our cyclone panel database may permit more accurate estimation of the timing and magnitude of responses to these differences. To conclude, we believe that the coastal cyclone experiences of Bangladesh, West Bengal and Odisha also offer potentially-valuable lessons for the global community. Our overall findings for the Indian Ocean are consistent with the view that ocean warming from climate change has increased the frequency and average power of regional cyclone storms. Since 1960, a composite index of cyclone frequency and power has increased by about 50%. Since our focal study area is one of the world’s most cyclone-prone, its experience can provide important clues for understanding the potential future of other cyclone-affected areas. In this context, studies that 22

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Input: of natural shocks, and historical data only offer limited guidance on the future. So, when taking long-term investment and planning decisions, selecting options that offer robust performance under a variety of scenarios is crucial (Hallegatte et al. 2019). This study considers a 1-in-100 year return flood intensity to reflect a relatively rare and intense disaster. However, the concept of return periods is easily misunderstood and the probability underestimated. A 1in-100 year flood has, on average, a 1% probability of occurrence in any given year. But this translates to or 10% probability in a decade, or 50% in a lifetime (68 years). These are significant probabilities that lie well within reasonable planning horizons of governments. For comparison, the Dutch flood protection system protects against events up to 1-in-10,000 years. In addition, it should be noted that these probabilities apply independently to a given river basin or microclimate. For the purpose of this study, we consider hundreds of thousands of such locations. This means that, globally, hundreds of 1-in-100 year flood events happen every year. **3.2.** **Population density** This study estimates the location of people using the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL), produced by the EC JRC. It offers global coverage and

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Input: components. Progress on all project components will be through biannual progress reports submitted by the PMU to the World Bank and disclosed publicly. 53. **Progress on the implementation of Components 2 and 3 will be overseen by the district-level PMU.** Progress will be assessed on infrastructure and agribusiness activities and provide quarterly reports to the MoHAIS. 54. **Citizen engagement and social accountability will be promoted throughout the project cycle.** The project has prepared a Stakeholder Engagement Plan (SEP) which was disclosed in country and on the World Bank website on August 1, 2024, which provides guidance on ensuring effective project communication and consultation at different stages of implementation. It further sets out indicators that will be monitored in accessing the level of beneficiary engagement, feedback, and grievances. The policy stakeholder group will facilitate the exchange of information between policy makers and the public. Citizen engagement will be measured through beneficiary assessments, which will include (a) participatory focus groups and (b) semi-structured interviews with refugees and former refugees, host community members, farmers, cooperatives, and agribusinesses. Citizen engagement outcomes will be assessed through the indicator “Stakeholder consultations convened, and priority measures identified”. These beneficiary assessments will help assess the relevance and impact

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Input: Loayza, N., A. Mier y Teran, and J. Rigolini. 2013. “Poverty, inequality, and the local natural resource curse.” Discussion Paper Series, Forschungsinstitut zur Zujunft der Arbeit, 7226, Bonn. Maldonado, S. (2017). The non-monotonic political effects of resource booms. Mamo, N., Bhattacharyya, S., & Moradi, A. (2019). Intensive and extensive margins of mining and development: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. _Journal of Development_ _Economics_, _139_, 28-49. Michaels, G. 2011. “The Long Term Consequences of Resource-Based Specialisation.” _The_ _Economic Journal_ 121: 31–57. MineAtlas. 2013. https://mining-atlas.com/ Rhee, S., Nyanza, E. C., Condon, M., Fisher, J., Maduka, T., & Benshaul-Tolonen, A. (2018). Understanding environmental, health and economic activity interactions following transition of ownership in gold mining areas in Tanzania: A case of private to public. _Land use policy_, _79_, 650-658. Standing, A., and G. Hilson. 2013. “Distributing mining wealth to communities in Ghana: Addressing problems of elite capture and political corruption.” _U4_ issue 2013 (5). van der Ploeg, F. 2011. “Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?” _Journal of Economic_ _Literature_ 49 (2): 366–420. von der Goltz, J., & Barnwal, P. (2019). Mines: The local wealth and health effects of mineral mining in developing countries. _Journal of Development Economics_, _139_, 1-16. Wilson, N. 2012. “Economic Booms and

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Input: This reliance on international trade – especially for essential imports such as water and food - leaves Djibouti vulnerable to climate-related shocks affecting both its own territory and its neighboring trading partners. 6. **As of January 15, 2025, Djibouti hosts 32,643 registered refugees** **[2]** **and asylum-seekers, constituting** **approximately three percent of the population, primarily from Somalia, Ethiopia, and Yemen** [3] **.** Eighty-five percent of refugees live in settlements (2,529 in Obock; 8,019 in Holl Holl; and 16,980 in Ali Addeh), while 15 percent reside in urban areas (5,115 in Djibouti-Ville). A majority of refugees are between the ages of 18-59, and the gender composition is 52 percent male and 48 percent female. The government’s proactive approach, aligned with the Global Compact on Refugees, includes efforts to integrate refugees into national systems while promoting social and economic inclusion, reinforced by the adoption of a National Refugee Law (NRL) in 2017 to strengthen institutional and legislative frameworks and ensure refugee access to services. Djibouti’s relative peace and economic growth in the region have made it a key destination for refugees and migrants, who seek sanctuary from conflict and climate-induced disasters. Additionally, Djibouti serves as a key transit corridor for migrants from the

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Input: **World** 0 2 4 6 8 Billions **Figure 2** _**. Global population headcounts exposed to different levels of flood risk**_ By regionally disaggregating global exposure headcounts, it becomes apparent that flood risks are particularly prevalent in certain regions. At 595.3 million people, the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region has the highest number of people exposed to significant flood risk – corresponding to about 25% of EAP’s total population. In all other regions, flood exposed people account for a smaller share of the overall population. In the South Asia region (SAR), 370 million people are exposed to significant flood risk – i.e. about 19.5 percent of the SAR population. In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Europe and Central Asia (ECA), Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), and the United States and Canada (USA & CAN), between 16.3 to 8 percent of the respective regional populations are exposed to high flood risk. Figure 4 provides a full breakdown of regional exposure estimates in absolute and relative terms. In several cases, regional exposure numbers are driven by single countries – like is the case for China in EAP, India in SAR, or Egypt in MENA. Section 5.2. presents

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Input: wheat and other grains increased and those of oil crops decreased in Chengdu while the opposite was true for households in neighboring counties. Also, key interventions in place during the period of concern are a new rural pension scheme (Lei _et al._ 2013), cooperative medical scheme (Wagstaff _et al._ 2009), and agricultural subsidies (Huang _et al._ 2011; Meng 2012). While these are funded centrally, disbursements may vary by prefecture and we include information on the amounts received in such schemes, in addition for a wide range of household-level observables, in our regressions. **3.2 Nature and cost of the certification process** To quantify costs of the reform, we use the overlap between the counties in our sample and a village survey administered in May 2014 on either side of comparable stretches of the administrative border of Chengdu prefecture(Deininger _et al._ 2015). Characteristics of the certification process for different types of land are described in table 2. The average village has an area of about 7,500 mu (5 km [2] ) of which some 51% were 13 To test for presence of pre-reform trends for variable _Yit_ in household _i_ in year _t_, we use the pre-reform sample to estimate ��� �������

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Input: **Poverty and flood exposure.** By combining flood exposure estimates with survey-based sub-national data on poverty, we further estimate flood exposure among the world’s poor. Our estimates show that 132 million people living in extreme poverty (living on less than $1.90 per day) are directly exposed to flood risk; of these, 72.5 million (or 55 percent) are in Sub-Saharan Africa (figure 16). Approximately two out of ten people exposed to flood risk globally are living in extreme poverty. When poverty is defined using less extreme (i.e. higher) thresholds, the number of flood-exposed poor people increases significantly. Around 343 million are estimated to live in high-risk flood zones while living on less than $3.20 a day. The number increases to 587 million when considering incomes below $5.50 a day. Increasing the poverty threshold from $1.90 to $5.50 doubles the number of poor people exposed to floods in Sub-Saharan Africa from 73 million to 147 million. However, in South Asia the number of the poor and flood-exposed increases seven-fold from 41 million to 289 million; in East Asia the increase is nine-fold from 9 million to 80 million. but increases the poor people exposed in SAR by a factor of 6.55 to 286.8

survey-based sub-national data on poverty

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Input: by the World Bank, in collaboration with WHO (Pandey, et al., 2004; Wang, et al., 2003). For natural resource degradation, we base our indicator on recent research that identifies the vulnerability of people on fragile lands (i.e., land that is steeply-sloped, arid, or covered by natural forest) as a major determinant of rural poverty and natural resource degradation in developing countries (World Bank, 2003). Our indicator, the total rural population living on fragile lands, has been constructed from a GIS (Geographic Information System) - based spatial overlay of demographic, topographical, climatic and natural resource information. We have developed our biodiversity threat indicator from a variety of sources. For terrestrial biodiversity, we use a GIS-based spatial overlay of human population with critical areas identified by Conservation International (CI), the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), and Birdlife International (BI). We also include freshwater lake areas, to capture the role of inland aquatic ecosystems. The World Bank’s Environment Strategy focuses on both the threat to biodiversity from human encroachment, and the value of biodiversity resources for human populations. Our indicator for this two-way relationship in each country is its total human population in critical biodiversity areas. For marine biodiversity, we draw on estimates of

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Input: up potential differential effects across urban compared to rural localities. None of the treatment effects are statistically significantly different between rural and urban areas. [16] In panel C, we have constructed a new treatment variable _#active*mines_ that counts the number of actively producing mines within 20 km. Women are sampled within 20 km of one mine (593 women), within 20 km of two mines (137 women), and within 20 km of three mines (64 women). The 16 Few of the other interaction coefficients are also statistically significant. The interaction between _urban*mine_ is significant, and women in urban localities with a future mine are 12 percentage points less likely to be working in agriculture. 28

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Input: **The World Bank** Costa Rica Results in Education (CORE) (P181174) 15. As per paragraph 5.9 of the Procurement Regulations, the World Bank’s Systematic Tracking and Exchanges in Procurement (STEP) system will be used to prepare, clear, and update Procurement Plans and conduct all procurement transactions for the Project. Page 35

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Input: see Office of the Prime Minister and UNHCR (2024) _Uganda Urban Response Strategy 2024-2029_ . 7 The definition used is canopy height >5m. Global Forest Watch 8 Compounded by the fact that refugee settlement population density is typically ten times the national average: World Agroforestry Center, 2024. 9 Gianvenuti, A., Bedijo, N. G., Jalal, R., Hitimana, L., Walter, S., Linhares-Juvenal, T., and Xia, Z. (2022). Woodfuel Consumption in Refugee Hosting Areas and Its Impact on the Surrounding Forests—The Case of Uganda. _Forests_, _13_ (10), 1676. Page 2

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Input: **Access to housing:** Protection monitoring findings and focus group discussions have highlighted that accommodation was the most urgently reported need (39% of respondents in first quarter of 2024 compared to 27% in the last quarter of 2023), followed by employment. Protection monitoring shows a positive trend in the percentage of respondents residing in rented accommodation with an increase from 46% in the last quarter of 2023 to 59% in the first quarter of 2024. In parallel to this, the percentage of residents in collective accommodation facilities decreased from 12% to 6% during the same period. It is likely that many refugees residing in collective accommodation facilities have already begun to relocate to rented housing as a result of the changes in the provision of cost-free accommodation. This applies also to vulnerable persons, who previously continued to benefit from cost-free accommodation beyond the 150 days. Findings from Protection Monitoring for this quarter confirm that 38% of those having to leave their accommodation was on account of the accommodation closing, compared to only 22% in the last quarter of 2023. ## 39% Consider accommodation an urgent need facilities across seven regions [1] highlighted the challenges in accessing sustainable and affordable housing, including

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Input: to their home country while application fees for passports are unaffordable for many. The GRZ has offered to integrate former Angolan refugees who arrived between 1966 and 1986. However, most of those who arrived after 1986 do not have any form of identification. The risk of statelessness extends to children born to refugees, because Zambian laws do not automatically grant citizenship to children born to foreign parents on Zambian territory. 9. **Most refugees and former refugees in Zambia live in designated refugee settlements** . Approximately 75 percent of refugees are in one of the three remote refugee settlements of Mantapala (8720 individuals), Meheba (41,762 individuals), and Mayukwayukwa (26,049 individuals), with 25 percent in Lusaka, Ndola, and other urban centers. Mayukwayukwa and Meheba are four to five decades old, with dilapidated and inadequate infrastructure. Around 16,000 8 National Adaptation Plan for Zambia, 2023. 9 The plan is the fourth of its series of five-year National Development Plans intended to achieve the National Vision 2030, which is aimed at transforming Zambia into ‘a prosperous middle-income nation by 2030’. 10 Zambia National Statistical Report, Ministry of Home Affairs and Internal Security, May 2024. Page 9

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Input: and so on), and nearby households. A key social infrastructure priority is schools, which are massively overcrowded and lack classroom capacity; teacher accommodation; and appropriate water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH). Energy for school infrastructure will allow uninterrupted learning, while new classroom designs will allow greater cooling and ventilation and the adoption of simple water harvesting will permit more handwashing. Through this component, the GRZ—specifically Kalumbila Town Council—will be provided with TA to improve capacity in climate-resilient design and construction standards for infrastructure. The project aims to pilot new climate-resilient classrooms designs that are cost-effective and sustainable. The project will also invest in sensitizing local communities on how better to adapt to climate risks, including appropriate water usage, farming techniques etc. 32. **Meheba falls within the Kalumbila District, one of the eleven districts of the North-Western Province in Zambia.** The district has become a new destination for domestic and foreign investment in Zambia, driven largely by the rapid growth in mining activities, which has seen the population of the district more than double in 10 years—from around 85,000 at the time of the 2010 census to 180,000 in the 2022 census. [23] The population of Meheba, which is predominantly youthful (75.9

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Input: varied but a total of 9597 surveys were administered. After data cleaning, including removal of farms that did not grow crops, and surveys with field errors and missing information, the final number of useable surveys was 8463. We conducted the analysis at the plot level of each farm as the dataset was sufficiently detailed to extract and utilize information about whether or not a particular plot (from a set of three) was irrigated or not. Each farm provided plot specific data on whether or not irrigation was used, crop production (including crop type, amount harvested, quantity sold, quantity consumed and amount of sales receipt) and crop costs (fertilizer, pesticide and seed data). Using this data, prices per crop and yields per hectare of farmland and cropland were estimated, as well as plot specific crop revenues and farm level gross and net revenues. Net revenue estimates are at the farm level because the input data, including labor (both hired and household) and machinery, were available only at that unit of measurement. It was not possible to allocate most inputs to specific plots as much of it was applied to several plots at a time. The dataset we used contains 1750 irrigated

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Input: in table 1. **Table 1.** Insurance Policy Summary Statistics **Year** **2005** **2006** **2007** Number of weather stations 34 42 28 Average premium for three phases (Rs) 290 295 287 Expected payout (Rs, using rainfall 1961–2004) 119 73 80 Ratio of premium to expected payout 2.67 2.47 2.12 Mean percentage of years policy would have 22.9 15.6 13.9 paid out 1961–2004 _Notes_ : This table lists basic features of the insurance policies studied in this paper. Each policy offers three phases of coverage with different premiums, but customers are not required to purchase all three. However, as purchasing all three phases was the most common behavior, the average premium for purchasing all phases of coverage is listed. The expected payout is estimated using the APHRODITE dataset, for the period 1961–2004. As pricing strategies for ICICI-LOMBARD are proprietary, these estimates may not correspond to their internal estimates of expected payouts. However, the APHRODITE data set likely draws from the same historical data used to price the insurance policies. The ration of premium to expected payout is the average premium (averaged across all weather stations) divided by the average expected payout. _Source_ : Authors’ analysis based on data from BASIX and APHRODITE.

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Input: **The World Bank** Costa Rica Results in Education (CORE) (P181174) can contribute meaningfully to environmental conservation and sustainable development while meeting the challenges posed by climate change. **MEP Management Structure and Efficiency** 10. **Reforming the organizational structure and management processes of MEP offers an opportunity to increase** **its efficiency, decision-making, and accountability to improve student learning and education trajectories in Costa Rica.** With 2,763 officials at the central level and 1,451 at the regional level, distributed in 4,810 schools, the educational system has the necessary infrastructure to implement significant changes. [16] A reform of MEP to increase effectiveness and alignment with educational objectives would include: (i) review and rationalization of the central organizational structure to eliminate redundancies and clarify roles and responsibilities, especially in units focused on educational quality; (ii) restructuring of MEP regional units to better respond to local needs and organizations, ensuring that these offices focus on providing direct and effective support to frontline schools; and (iii) Improving decision-making with a data-driven approach, improving information systems and planning, which requires more accurate cost estimation and resultsoriented strategic planning. These measures would allow the MEP to optimize its management and fulfil its mandate to ensure that resources are used

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Input: vulnerable freshwater marshes and China represents 79.1% of all vulnerable GLWD Coastal Wetlands within EAP. Within MENA, 92.7% of all regional vulnerable saline wetlands are in Libya and Egypt. On the whole, our results suggest a significant asymmetry in the burden of SLR on wetlands: a small number of developing countries is expected to bear the additional burnt of sea level rise, while many other coastal countries will experience little change. It should be noted that numerous studies on impacts of climate change have indicated that small island nations are particularly susceptible to the impacts of SLR (for example, see Anthoff et al 2010; Nicholls et al 2010; Anthoff et al 2006; Church et al 2006; Nicholls et al 1999). However, limitations of the resolution of the global spatial datasets make quantification of the vulnerability of wetlands of small island nations particularly difficult. [20] Even though the SRTM elevation data are at approximately 90m spatial resolution, the global wetlands data are compiled from a range of sources resulting in generalized areas. Also, the correspondence 20 Tol 2007 drew on the Global Vulnerability Analysis and other country studies for quantification of wetland loss from 1 m SLR for a global analysis

SRTM elevation data
Global Vulnerability Analysis

global spatial datasets
global wetlands data

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Input: The World Bank Economic Review 701 villages that did not experience a rainfall shock. A shock is defined using each location’s insurance policies in 2005: If insurance would have paid out in 2004 based on the structure of the 2005 weather policy, this is deemed a rainfall shock. As the quality of the rainfall data is related to the amount of nearby weather stations, I weight the observations based on the number of nearby rainfall stations. [11] Also, I create a hypothetical payout ratio, similar to the “Ratio of Payout to Premium” variable presented in table 3. This is the ratio of the amount that the 2005 policy would have paid out in 2004 divided by the premium of the policy. The results of this regression are presented in table 5. [12] **Table 5.** Direct Effects of Rainfall on Purchasing **Dependent variable is number of buyers in 2005** **(1)** **(2)** **(3)** **(4)** Would have been payout in 2004 −3.843*** −4.592*** −5.045** −3.788* (0.987) (1.039) (2.173) (1.898) Ratio of hypothetical 2004 payout to 2005 Premium 4.365 −0.755 (4.610) (5.543) Payout ratio squared −1.991 −0.279 (1.814) (2.064) Constant 8.001*** 0.651 7.985*** 1.015 (0.714) (6.341) (0.713) (6.494) Weather station constants NO YES NO

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Input: more progressive approach to refugee inclusion.** There is a general recognition in Government that a shift to self-reliance and a move away from humanitarian support is required. Zambia’s Eighth National Development Plan (8NDP) has a vision for a more decentralized approach to economic and social development, which will support the greater inclusion of approximately 101,837 [15] refugees, asylum seekers, and former refugees that currently reside in the country. 14. **In August 2023, the GRZ endorsed a new National Refugee Policy, approved by the Cabinet in November 2023.** The Office of the Commissioner for Refugees, in close cooperation with the MoHAIS and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), developed the new policy to address existing legal gaps and enhance coordination within government. Its implementation is expected to ease reservations to the 1951 Convention and harmonize the 2017 Refugee Act with other national legislation (for example, the Immigration and Deportation Act of 2010) that will enhance opportunities for protection and solutions for self-reliance. [16] To assist policy delivery, the Government has established an interagency National Steering Committee chaired by the Office of the Vice President. In March 2023, the MoHAIS launched a plan for the Modernization of Refugee and Host

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Input: climate variables but found the linear model to be more reliable. (Log pseudolikelihood = -2340.59 and r-squared 0.51 versus -2187.4434 and 0.54, respectively, for the quadratic probit model.) The Chow test for determining the null hypothesis that the estimated parameters are jointly the same is rejected (chi [2] (30) = 3967.66; Prob > chi [2] =0.0000). The coefficients (which are highly significant) suggest that the probability of adoption of irrigation increases with higher temperatures and precipitation in each season except in spring. The reported standard errors in the paper are based on the Huber-White estimator of variance which are robust against many types of misspecification of the model (Heltberg & Tarp 2002). The annual marginal effects, which are more informative of the decision to irrigate or not, reflected in the probability response functions of choosing irrigation given delta temperature increments (holding all other variables constant), reflect the current irrigation landscape in Africa. The probability of adoption of irrigation increases in regions with lower temperatures (for example Egypt and South Africa), while it decreases in warmer regions. Irrigation in cooler regions is more profitable because it requires less water and the crops are more productive. Similarly, in regions of higher precipitation

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Input: information within the infrastructure module on repairs and upgrades and the integration of energyefficient and climate-smart features, such as improved drainage, natural ventilation, and use of climate-resilient materials in educational establishments; and (ii) strengthen the digitalization of MEP and the development of digital platforms and content delivery to enable remote instruction when extreme weather events make it unsafe for students to go to school for in-person learning. [28] The integration of digital platforms will be accompanied by the development of business continuity plans to ensure network connectivity and minimize downtime during extreme weather events. With these considerations, the Project is considered to have reduced risks to acceptable levels and to be aligned on adaptation. 27 These will consider the best available technology or match or surpass country benchmarks in energy efficiency performance. [28 In the past, extreme weather events have disrupted school continuity. For instance, in 2017, Hurricane Nate damaged 72 schools that remained](https://www.nacion.com/el-pais/educacion/tormenta-nate-dana-72-escuelas-y-colegios-en-todo-el-pais/42ZNMUM3BFA5BIWXJI3INJOBHA/story/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_content=2017-10-06&utm_campaign=rss-nacional) [closed for several days. More recently, in 2022, 234 schools lost access to electricity and water following storm Julia. The MSP contract will include](https://mep.go.cr/noticias/mep-reporta-234-centros-educativos-afectados-paso-huracan-julia) contingency measures so that remote instruction can continue in the event of outages. Page 17

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Input: panel B shows the effects of increased production in the survey year. There is no evidence of spillovers in the sense that there is a similar effect in neighboring districts. In fact, most coefficients point in the opposite direction for mining and neighboring districts indicating, if anything, a shift in employment from neighboring districts to the producing ones. **8 Conclusions** Ghana has a long history of gold production and has recently been experiencing its third gold rush, during which annual gold production skyrocketed. It was the first gold rush the country has experienced as an independent nation, and it brings hope of improving the lives of its citizens. Natural resource extraction is often argued to have detrimental effects on countries, however, and the so-called natural resource curse may imply that resource wealth is harmful to social development and inclusive growth. We use rich geocoded data with information on households and mining production over time to evaluate the gold boom at the local and district levels in difference-in-differences analyses. Men benefit from direct job creation within the mining sector, and women seem to benefit from indirectly generated jobs in the service sector (statistically significant within 10 km from a mine). Women

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Input: candles, flashlights, and generators for lighting and cell phone charging. Enhanced transport and energy will also stimulate retail business and production. The upgrading and expansion of school infrastructure will improve learning outcomes, enhance teacher retention and new recruitment, and afford greater dignity to boarding pupils, especially girls, as many are currently sharing beds due to the lack of capacity. The provision of modern WASH facilities will support greater school attendance—especially for girls whose attendance is often curtailed due to lack of access to hygiene services [26] —and improve the health of students who are at increased risk of waterborne diseases such as cholera in the rainy season given the current overreliance on pit latrines. (a) **Transport infrastructure: Meheba settlement main access road and Mwafwe bridge (US$3 million).** The overall state of rural roads within the Meheba settlement remains one of the main bottlenecks to the development of that settlement into an economically viable area. Results from various studies such as the 23 Zambia 2022 Census of Population and Housing, Central Statistical Office Zambia, 2023. 24 One Meheba Local Area Plan, Planning Survey and Issues Report, GRZ, 2023. 25 One Meheba Local Area Plan, Planning Survey and Issues Report, GRZ, 2023.

23 Zambia 2022 Census of Population and Housing

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Input: expand essential services, job creation and entrepreneurship to stimulate local economies, and the development of key sectors like agriculture, renewable energy, and small-scale industries. Addressing climate change, the vision emphasizes efficient water management and renewable energy to enhance resilience. Aligned with this vision, **the National Strategy for Non-** **Contributory Social Protection (NSPS, 2023-2027) integrates adaptive social protection systems, basic services,** 2 The WBG Scorecard FY24-FY30 Methodology Note defines a ‘ **refugee’** is a person who, ‘owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or political opinion, is outside the country of his or her nationality, and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail themselves of the protection of that country’, referencing the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees. For the purposes of this PAD, the term ‘refugee’ will include both refugees and asylum-seekers. 3 UNHCR (2025), Djibouti: Refuge and Asylum-Seekers Locations, as of 15 Jan 2025; UNHCR (2024), Djibouti: Refuge and Asylum-Seekers Locations, as of 31 Dec 2025 Page 2

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Input: relationships between household wealth (excluding the value of owned land) and their willingness to pay in order to obtain full ownership rights on occupied parcels. The marginal elasticity of the reported amount that occupants’ are willing to pay with respect to wealth, though inelastic with 0.36, is positive and statistically different from zero. But wealth elasticity on the probability of willingness to pay is very negligible (0.03), implying that poorer tenants will possibly be over-bid even if they are equally willing to buy full ownership rights on occupied parcels. **5. Conclusion and policy implications** Although a large literature explores the effectiveness of titling interventions, and the impacts of tenure security on investment and productivity of land use, the African literature has not led to a consensus on whether insecurity should be of concern to policy makers or on how to most effectively address it. Our findings contribute to the methodological and the policy debate. Methodologically, the ability to use within household fixed effect estimates allows us to demonstrate that tenure insecurity has statistically very significant effects on investment and thus the productivity of land use. The fact that both our sample and the point estimates obtained are several times larger

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Input: after the 2005 floods, it was slow to arrive and the amount delivered was inadequate to support losses suffered (Patankar 2015). Given that poor people have consumption closer to subsistence, a substantial loss from floods in the absence of support can have high non-monetary costs in the form of irreversible impacts on children and distress sales of assets (de Janvry et al. 2006; World Bank and Australian AID 2014). In summary, livelihood shocks triggered by floods could keep people from escaping poverty and even push them into deeper poverty (Karim and Noy 2014). Despite this poverty-vulnerability relationship, previous quantitative studies on flood exposure in Vietnam have focused on the generation of losses rather than exposure across socioeconomic levels (Chinh et al. 2017; Apel et al. 2016; MONRE 2009). Nevertheless, insights from qualitative focus groups across the country (in An Giang, Kien Giang, Kon Tum, Hoa Binh, and Bac Nih) find that many poor households feel more vulnerable to floods due to their increased exposure (a result of living in flood prone areas, like along river banks or outside of protective dikes, and often having substandard quality of housing) are less likely to have sufficient assets to buffer the effects of

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Input: executing agency, which describes how procurement in this Project will support the PDOs and deliver value for money under a risk-based approach. The PPSD will provide adequate supporting market analysis for the selection methods detailed in the Procurement Plan. Mandatory 29 MEP implemented the Equity and Efficiency of Education Project (P057857, 7284-CR). However, the project closed in 2013. 30 The PEFA 2022 concluded that overall Costa Rica PFM system is well aligned with good international practices, being budget reliability and transparency of public finances the foremost strengths. Page 18

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Input: because the input data, including labor (both hired and household) and machinery, were available only at that unit of measurement. It was not possible to allocate most inputs to specific plots as much of it was applied to several plots at a time. The dataset we used contains 1750 irrigated plots and 9183 dryland plots. The distribution of surveys – irrigated and dryland plots by country – is shown in Table 1. In this study, we relied on monthly temperature data collected from US Department of Defense satellites (Basist et al. 2001). This set of polar orbiting satellites obtain measurements at a given location on earth at 6am and 6pm every day. The satellites are equipped with sensors that measure surface temperature by detecting microwaves that pass through clouds (Weng & Grody 1998). The monthly precipitation data comes from the Africa Rainfall and Temperature Evaluation System (ARTES) (World Bank 2003). This dataset, created by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Climate Prediction Center, is based on ground station measurements of precipitation over the period 1948–2001. The average temperatures and precipitation for each country in the sample are shown in Appendices A and B. Note that there is a wide range

Africa Rainfall and Temperature Evaluation System

ground station measurements of precipitation

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Input: Nam Assessment Report on Climate Change IPCC (2007) Summary for Policymakers.^ In Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New [York, USA. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf) IPCC (2014) Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Barros, V.R., C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press de Janvry, A., F. Finan, E. Sadoulet, and R. Vakis. 2006. BCan conditional cash transfer programs serve as safety nets in keeping children at school and from working when exposed to shocks?^ J Dev Econ 79: 349–373 Jongman B, Hochrainer-Stigler S, Feyen L, Aerts JCJH, Mechler R, Botzen WJW, Bouwer LM, Pflug G, Rojas R, Ward PJ (2014) Increasing stress on disaster-risk finance due to large floods. Nat Clim Chang 4(4):264–

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Input: shock of the same intensity occurs again. Using historical data and based on the statistical frequency of a shock of a certain intensity, it describes the probability of such an event. Figure 1 illustrates the extent of floods with two return periods: one with a 25-year return period (or a 1in-25-year flood) and one with a 100-year return period (or a 1-in-100-year flood). The 1-in-25-year flood has a 1/25 or 0.04 annual probability of occurring. In other words, each year there is a 4 percent chance of such an event occurring, regardless of when the last such event took place. The probabilistic nature of return periods means that there is a 63.9 percent probability that a flood of at least this intensity will occur once within a 25-year period. But this also leaves the possibility for this event to not occur at all, or to occur several times. In comparison, a 1-in-100-year flood is a more extreme event with a lower probability but higher intensity — that is, it affects a wider area and has a greater depth. As time passes, more climatic data become available, which will update the empirical probabilities associated with certain natural shocks. As the impacts

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Input: optimal allocation model, with a brief review of the methodology developed in Buys, et al. (2003). Assuming continuity with the past scale and thematic composition of lending, Section 8 uses the model to estimate lending and AAA opportunities by country and environmental theme for the period 2004-2009. [2] Section 9 interprets our findings using two country cases, and Section 10 provides a summary and conclusions. **2. Environmental Indicators** Building on prior work by Buys, et al. (2003), we construct country indicators for six environmental problems: greenhouse gas emissions; health damage from air and water pollution; the threat of natural resource degradation on fragile lands; threats to biodiversity; problems related to water resources; and problems with environmental policies and institutions. All of our indices reflect recent research on the cross-country incidence of environmental problems. For global greenhouse gas emissions, our indicator is total metric tons of carbon equivalent in 2000 from fuel combustion (CO2), land-use change (CO2) and other sources (methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N20), hydrofluorocarbons (HFC’s), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)). We draw our emissions estimates from the World Resources Institute’s Climate Analysis and Indicators database. [3] Our estimate of pollution damage is total DALY (disability-adjusted life year) losses

World Resources Institute’s Climate Analysis and Indicators database

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Input: NUSAF IV will focus on the poorest individuals, while DRDIP II will target ‘active individuals’ identified through national wealth ranking data; (b) DRDIP II will concentrate on regions with a high refugee population, freeing up NUSAF IV to operate in other areas; (c) data sharing will be facilitated through interoperability between the DRDIP II management information system (MIS) and related projects; (d) the Geo-Enabling initiative for Monitoring and Supervision (GEMS) at the portfolio level will provide mapping of different projects, offering timely information on subproject locations; and (e) bi-annual joint reviews and joint missions of the PIUs and World Bank will be explored for strategic stocktaking and alignment. DRDIP II will also coordinate with activities of the International Finance Corporation (IFC), ensuring at the very least not to crowd out private investment. 45. **As part of the portfolio level coordination, a common taxonomy across operations will be developed through** **project implementation manuals, building a shared understanding of graduation pathways at individual and group** **levels** . Livelihoods grants from NUSAF IV and economic opportunity grants from DRDIP II will form the foundational support to refugees and host communities, priming households to become economically active and participate in value chains. The DRDIP

DRDIP II management information system (MIS)

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Input: the planned procurement, the absence of a comprehensive project expenditure framework, and weak technical and procurement capacity at both the ministry and PMU levels. 16. The mitigation measures are as follows: a) A comprehensive expenditure framework including a Procurement Plan for the overall project for the first 18 months of implementation has been developed and will be updated periodically as necessary; b) Qualified staff will be assigned as focal persons to monitor, support, and report on procurement activities; c) Evaluation committee members will consist of a maximum of five members with three members from the concerned PMU/department and two members from the concerned ministry; d) Financial and administrative authority at the PMU/Department of Procurement level will be efficiently delegated to conduct procurement and manage contracts in compliance with the World Bank’s Procurement Regulations; e) Implementing agencies will start advance procurement to award a few critical contracts following Board approval; f) The Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement (STEP) system will be used for all procurement activities; and g) The World Bank will carry out regular reviews of project-related procurement activities. 17. **Procurement oversight and monitoring arrangements.** The World Bank exercises its procurement oversight through a risk-based approach comprising prior and

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Input: possible, refugees and host communities will be provided with access to climate information, and to inform livelihood choices balanced against market demands. _Subcomponent 1.2. Issuing of ID cards to refugees and former refugees nationally (US$6 million)_ 27. **The GRZ plans to issue new biometric National Registration Cards (NRCs) to all citizens.** The process is led by the Department of National Registration, Passports and Citizenship under the MoHAIS through the Integrated National Registration Information System (INRIS) project. The overall objective of the project is to improve civil registration and identity management processes through digitization and automation. In line with the new Refugee Policy, the scheme will be extended to all refugees and former refugees, enabling them for the first time to be part of the national civil registry. Despite the historically high uptake of NRCs by Zambian citizens, women and girls still face several access challenges, attributed to time and mobility constraints due to domestic work and childcare commitments. 28. **The current system of documentation leaves persons of concern** **[20]** **vulnerable.** The GRZ, with the support of the UNHCR, has been registering persons of concern and issuing them with documents such as asylum seeker certificates, registration certificates, refugee identity cards, birth

Integrated National Registration Information System

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Input: Africa has increased substantially over the past 18 months, with more than 700,000 people approaching UNHCR in **Egypt** since April 2023 and nearly 69,000 new arrivals to **Libya** . UNHCR is working with governments and humanitarian partners to sustain an emergency response to help those fleeing the horrors of war; however, the regional response to the Sudan situation continues to be severely underfunded. After more than 13 years, the **Syria Situation** remains one of the largest displacement crises in the world. Close to 6 million Syrian refugees are hosted in the neighbouring countries. Maintaining assistance to Syrian refugees in host countries in the region remains of paramount importance, particularly given the already heightened vulnerabilities among refugees in host countries and added pressure on host governments. A lack of adequate resources has exacerbated tensions between refugees and host communities, decreased opportunities for livelihoods and strained already overstretched national systems. Years of devastating conflict in **Yemen** have left 18.2 million people dependent on humanitarian assistance. In **Iraq**, UNHCR also urgently needs resources to continue supporting the authorities in ensuring access to civil documentation and inclusion in the national social safety net for some 1 million internally displaced Iraqis. UNHCR is responding to

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Input: Policy Research Working Paper 6277 #### **Abstract** Scientific evidence indicates that global warming could well lead to a sea-level rise of 1 meter or more in the 21 [st] century. This paper seeks to quantify how a 1-meter sea-level rise that would affect coastal wetlands in 76 developing countries and territories, taking into account how much of wetlands would be submerged and how likely the wetlands would move inland as the coastline recedes. It is estimated that approximately 64 percent of the freshwater marsh, 66 percent of Global Lakes and Wetlands Database coastal wetlands, and 61 percent of brackish/saline wetlands are at risk. A large percentage of this loss would be shouldered by two regions: East Asia and the Pacific, and the Middle East and North Africa. At the country level, the results are extremely skewed with a small number of countries being severely affected. In East Asia, China and Vietnam would bear the brunt of these losses. In the Middle East and North Africa, Libya and Egypt would see the most losses. A rough estimate of the economic value of the goods and services produced by wetlands at risk is approximately $630 million per year in 2000 U.S. dollars.

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Input: are also aggregated to administrative units, including for each country and subnational unit. These estimates are also aggregated to yield regional and global estimates. **4.** **Compute the number of poor people exposed to flood risk:** While poverty estimates are not available at the pixel level, the World Bank’s GMD database provides them at the subnational level for most countries. These poverty shares are multiplied with the population headcount that is estimated to be exposed to flooding, in order to obtain an estimate of the number of poor people in each administrative unit exposed to flood risk. Similarly, exposure headcount estimates are multiplied with subnational GDP per capita figures to obtain estimates of flood exposed GDP in monetary terms. **4.2.** **Stepwise computational process** The following steps are repeated for each subnational region where data are available. **Merge coastal, pluvial, fluvial flood hazard maps** - Crop fluvial and pluvial flood rasters to subnational boundary - Crop then virtually warp the coastal flood raster, using a nearest neighbors resampling method, to perfectly match the resolution and extent of the fluvial and pluvial rasters - Merge fluvial, pluvial, and coastal rasters using a maximum value method 8

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Input: **The World Bank** Costa Rica Results in Education (CORE) (P181174) provision of hardware (notebook computers and tablets) and connectivity for primary and secondary schools; in addition to computers, the Project will provide other equipment such as smart boards, projectors, headphones, robotics and related physical computation kits, routers to enhance internal connectivity); [26] and (iii) support to the development and implementation of a hybrid learning policy, its operational plan, and a communication strategy. This last activity would include the development of a national learning platform for virtual learning; implementation of a monitoring mechanism, such as the World Bank’s Education and Technology Readiness Index (ETRI); and development of digital resources such as e-books, multimedia contents, simulation exercises, and educational applications, as part of a unified learning management and competency certification system. As with foundational learning, implementation of the PNFT as part of the curriculum (it is not optative) will ensure that equal opportunity will be provided for girls and boys for all modules, and that girls will not lag behind boys in digital competencies, including coding and robotics. Computer Science teachers would be specially trained to make sure that coding and robotics activities are gender inclusive (for example in the choice of

World Bank’s Education and Technology Readiness Index (ETRI)

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Input: **Figure 3: Coastal cyclone landfalls in Bangladesh, West Bengal and Odisha:** **Median locations by period, 178 cyclonic storms, 1877-2016** **Sources: BMD, IMD, IBTrACS** **Figure 4: Coastal cyclone landfalls in Bangladesh, West Bengal and Odisha:** **Distribution of locations by period, 178 cyclonic storms, 1877-2016** **Sources: BMD, IMD, IBTrACS** 11

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Input: from coefficients on dummies for longer-term possession (5-12 and > 12 years, respectively) as discussed earlier. Relevant regression results and tests for relationships between coefficients, presented in table 5, lead us to conclude that granting legal protection to _bona fide_ occupants attenuates investment disincentives in a way that goes beyond the mere passage of time. In the case of tree investment and soil conservation measures _γ_ _[2]_ _L_ [ is ] insignificant and _γ_ _[1]_ _L_ [significant, suggesting that what we find is a legal rather than just a time-effect. Still, ] while it is not surprising to find that tests consistently reject the hypothesis of _γ_ _[2]_ _L_ [ =] _[ γ]_ _T_ [ at the 1% level, ] pointing towards significant under-investment on parcels that were occupied for longer than 5 years, the same equivalent hypothesis (i.e. _γ_ _[1]_ _L_ [ =] _[ γ]_ _T_ [) is also rejected at 5% throughout. This implies that, compared to ] parcels they own, households invest significantly less in parcels to which by law they have been granted permanent and heritable occupancy rights. The magnitude of such under-investment remains large; according to the point estimates, _bona fide_ occupancy on customary land

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Input: with six lags of the dependent variable. The Arellano-Bond regression contains one lag of the dependent variable, with this lag instrumented by five previous lags. Observation are years 1967–2004 for the fixed-effects regression, and years 1962-2004 for the Arellano-Bond regression. All regressions contain weather station fixed effects. Robust standard errors are in parentheses. ***p _<_ 0.01, **p _<_ 0.05, *p _<_ 0.1. _Source_ : Authors’ analysis based on data from BASIX and APHRODITE. This evidence casts doubt on the hypothesis that positive autocorrelation of weather events is driving increased insurance purchasing. It appears that total rainfall is actually negatively autocorrelated, whereas shocks (which are proxied by the insurance contract giving a payout) do not appear to be correlated at all. Even if there is no positive autocorrelation of rainfall, there may be other aspects about experiencing a shock that result in people having a higher propensity to purchase insurance. In order to look at the results of weather separately from the effects of insurance, I analyze how previous weather events affected insurance purchase decisions in the first year that insurance was offered to BASIX customers, which was 2005. To accomplish this, I first aggregate the purchasing data to the village

data from BASIX and APHRODITE
BASIX and APHRODITE

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Input: **The World Bank** Integrated Community Resilience Project (P506969) PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT **productive inclusion and social behavior change communication (SBCC) to reduce poverty, enhance resilience to climate** **risks and support economic empowerment targeting the poor and vulnerable through financial inclusion** . Refugees and asylum-seekers, included in the 2024 census, are now part of the NSPS, and refugees were incorporated into the National Programme of Family Solidarity (PNSF) in 2023. Together, these strategies aim to build a sustainable, inclusive and shockresilient socio-economic landscape, conducive to long-term growth across the country. 8. **Over the last five years, Djibouti has made significant strides in social protection, but faces challenges in** **ensuring a comprehensive, effective and efficient social protection system that is adaptive and sustainable.** While the government has successfully piloted a targeted cash transfer program and laid the foundations for delivery mechanisms using the social registry, the NSPS highlights challenges of fragmentation (as of 2019, nine safety net programs covered different groups), inadequacy, and unpredictability. Djibouti’s social protection system is currently inadequate to shield poor and vulnerable people from adverse lifecycle impacts or encourage desirable investment in human capital and provides limited coverage. In 2012, social safety net coverage was 9.5 percent, well below

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Input: J. Cochrane and W. Kisamba-Mugerwa. 1994. "Tenure Security, Credit Use, and Farm Investment in the Rujumbura Pilot Land Registration Scheme, Uganda." In Bruce, J. W. and S. E. Migot-Adholla, eds., _Searching for Land Tenure Security in Africa_ . Dubuque, IA: Kendall/Hunt Publishers. Rugadya, M., E. Obaiko, and H. Kamusiime. 2004. "Gender and the Land Reform Process in Uganda: Assessing Gains and Losses for Women in Uganda." Land Research Series No. 2. Kampala: Associates for Development. Shaban, R. A. 1987. "Testing between Competing Models of Sharecropping." _Journal of Political Economy_ _95_ (5): 893-920. West, H. W. 1972. _Land policy in Buganda_ . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. World Bank. 2003. "Nicaragua Land Policy and Administration: Towards a More Secure Property Rights Regime." Report 26683NI. Washington, DC: World Bank. 26

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Input:
**pandemic, regional drought, inflation crisis and continuing global economic turbulence.** According to data from

the Kenya COVID-19 Rapid Response Phone Survey (RRPS), the Shona community experienced significant job

losses during the pandemic, particularly between July and September 2020, when unemployment increased

dramatically. [[9]] This period of economic disruption caused by the pandemic led to fluctuating employment rates, as

seen in the figure below.

_Figure 3: Labor force participation as a percentage of working age population, between 2019 and 2024_

_Source: 2019 Shona socioeconomic survey,_ [[8]] _Kenya COVID-19 Rapid Response Phone Surveys (RRPS),_ _[[9]]_ _and the authors’ calculation_

_of 2024 survey data._

**While employment has started to improve, it has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, especially for women.**

The employment rate for women decreased from 72 percent in 2019 to 61 percent in 2024, which can largely be

attributed to the job losses incurred during the pandemic and slower recovery in female-dominated sectors that

were further setback by the food price crisis and global economic headwinds. Meanwhile, male employment

increased slightly from 74 percent to 76 percent during the same period, reflecting a quicker rebound in male
dominated occupations.

Kenya COVID-19 Rapid Response Phone Survey (RRPS)

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Input: 24 25 Economic research on dispersal policies and labour market inclusion focuses on the strength of local labour markets and size of local ethnic networks. While some scholars find only the strength of local labour markets to be significant and not co-national networks (Foged, Hasager, and Peri, 2022), or inconsistent results for conational networks (Müller, Pannatier, and Viarengo, 2022), others find effects only for co-national networks (Damm, 2014).

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Input:
_UNHCR
 Discussion
 Paper
 –15
 June
 2013_

# **Supporting
 Durable
 Solutions** **in
 South-‐East
 Myanmar**

## **A
 framework
 for
 UNHCR
 engagement**

**1.** **INTRODUCTION**

Myanmar
 is
 currently
 undergoing
 a
 process
 of
 significant
 and
 rapid
 change,
 which
 has
already
 generated
 a
 series
 of
 political,
 social
 and
 economic
 reforms
 affecting
 all
 aspects
of
 life
 in
 the
 country.
 The
 reforms
 launched
 by
 the
 president
 Thein
 Sein
 and
 largely
supported
 by
 the
 opposition
 leader
 Aung
 San
 Suu
 Kyi
 have
 received
 strong
 and
 positive
encouragements
 from
 abroad
 with
 the
 most
 immediate
 outcome
 reflected
 in
 increased
foreign
 aid
 and
 the
 temporary
 suspension
 of
 a
 number
 of
 economic
 sanctions.
 Key
 legal
amendments
 have
 been
 adopted
 to
 ease
 restrictions
 on
 foreign
 investments,
 national
media
 and
 political
 parties
 while,
 in
 addition,
 hundreds
 of
 political
 prisoners
 have
 been
released
 from
 detention.

In
 late
 2011,
 President
 Thein
 Sein’s
 Government
 pledged
 to
 make
 the
 ethnic
 issue
 a
national
 priority,
 offering
 dialogue
 with
 all
 armed
 groups
 and
 dropping
 preconditions
for
 talks.
 By
 early
 2012,
 cease-‐fires
 were
 agreed
 between
 the
 Government
 and
 a
 number
of
 non-‐state
 armed
 opposition
 groups,
 including
 the
 Democratic
 Karen
 Buddhist
 Army
(DKBA),
 the
 Karen
 National
 Union
 (KNU),
 and
 the
 Karenni
 National
 Progressive
 Party
(KNPP).

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Regarding types of support received, most participants reported utilizing formal services with psychotherapy/counselling services being the most common (44%). Smaller numbers participated in creative psychosocial activities (19%), group or individual structured interventions designed to improve well-being (17%), psychiatry/medication management (8%), school-based services (4% overall; for children under 18, 13%), support gained from messaging materials (2%), and training for caregivers in how to support children in distress (1%). These formal services, provided by professionals or by trained specialists and nonspecialists, aim to address both clinical and subclinical mental health needs through structured, evidence-informed approaches.

Informal support also played a significant role, with 33% of participants receiving support from family and friends, 12% accessing spiritual support, and 3% receiving support from their employer (e.g., flexible Regionally, 56% of participants reported receiving only formal services, 25% reported receiving only informal support, and 14% of participants reported receiving both formal and informal forms of support.
Forms of support varied across countries, with uptake of formal services ranging from 29% of participants in Hungary to 64% of participants in Poland. In some settings with lower use of formal services, participants appeared somewhat more likely to seek out or use informal supports.

**21**

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Investigating the district-level effects on children’s health and birth outcomes in table 7, we

note a higher number of prenatal visits and an increase in attendance of a midwife in panel A.

These results are highly statistically significant and the effects are economically significant. A

mine opening increases the number of prenatal visits by 0.76 and increases the probability that

the birth was preceded by a prenatal visit supervised by a midwife by 12.5 percentage points.

In column 6 of panel A, we see that mine openings in a district reduce child mortality. The

probability of an infant dying before 12 months of age is reduced by 8.5 percentage points.

Given the importance of child mortality for human welfare, we strongly encourage future

research to investigate the mechanisms behind these striking results. Since the share of prenatal

visits supervised by a midwife also increases with mine openings, the results potentially speak

to the importance of midwives for reducing infant mortality.

**Table 7 Effects of mine opening at the district level on birth outcomes and child health**

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

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- Provide
 assistance
 to
 mine
 victims
 and
 support
 Mine
 Risk
 Education
 (MRE)
while
 following
 up
 and
 advocate
 for
 the
 implementation
 of
 humanitarian
 mine
action
 including
 survey,
 mapping,
 marking
 and
 clearance
 of
 contaminated
 areas,
especially
 in
 areas
 of
 potential
 and
 current
 return.
 Develop
 key
 advocacy
messages
 and
 co-‐ordination
 mechanisms
 to
 ensure
 that
 displaced
 communities
are
 aware
 of
 any
 landmine
 contamination
 in
 places
 of
 origin
 and
 transit.

- Advocate
 for
 the
 recognition
 of
 education
 certificates
 received
 in
 country
 of
asylum
 and
 the
 development
 of
 bi-‐lingual
 educational
 programmes.

- Conducting
 awareness-‐raising
 on
 SGBV
 prevention
 and
 response,
 assisting
 SGBV
victims
 through
 established
 referral
 mechanisms
 for
 treatment
 and
 psycho-‐
social
 support,
 and
 supporting
 community-‐based
 protection
 solutions.

- Establish
 community
 based
 mechanisms
 for
 identifying
 EVIs
 and
 provide
tailored
 assistance.

13

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Input:
that is produced by labour alone. This can be estimated by assuming that it is equal to the labour compensation share of GDP (GDP can be divided into compensation of labour and capital), which in 2022 and 2023 stood in Poland at 48% according to the European Commission’s AMECO database.
Accounting for that, gives a lower estimate of 0.7-1.0% GDP. Such calculations are very abstract, and do not account for other phenomena developing simultaneously in the economy, like the various effects of the war and energy shock. For this reason, we turn next to formal general equilibrium modelling, where equations of the model state explicitly every assumption about the workings of the economy and allow for a credible estimation of counter-factual scenarios.

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refugees, we have adjusted all the results proportionally to a 1.4-2.2% employment growth. First, Gradzewicz, Jabłon owski, Sasiela, and Żółkiewski (2021) use the NBP CGE model to estimate the economic impact of pre-2022 Ukrainian migrants over the 2015-2018 period, treating their inflow as a positive unskilled labour shock. If the Ukrainian refugee inflow had the same characteristics, it would yield a 0.5-0.8% higher GDP – the lower bound of our estimate. Second, Strzelecki, Growiec, and Wyszyński (2022) perform a growth accounting exercise to gauge the economic impact of the pre-2022 Ukrainian migrants over the 2014-2018 period, accounting for hours and worker characteristics to arrive at a productivityadjusted labour supply. If Ukrainian refugees had the same characteristics, they © UNHCR / Anna Liminowicz As such **4 scenarios** were calculated with options corresponding to different mixes of low and high estimation for employment and productivity while keeping stable impact on consumption: high or low employment level, similar (baseline) or lower (conservative) productivity. In the conservative productivity scenario, we assumed approximately 10% lower refugee productivity estimated based on incomes reported in MSNA Poland 2023 and data from Statistics Poland.

**Table 2.** Cumulative changes in main indicators in 2023

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_UNHCR
 Discussion
 Paper
 –15
 June
 2013_

make
 efforts
 towards
 an
 internal
 peace
 process
 with
 armed
 groups
 in
 the
 border
 areas,
parallel
 debates
 emerged
 about
 the
 opportunity
 to
 return
 for
 over
 a
 hundred
 thousand
refugees
 from
 the
 “temporary
 shelters” [2] in
 Thailand.

While
 the
 present
 and
 immediately
 expected
 environment
 in
 Myanmar
 does
 not
 meet
 all
the
 conditions
 or
 safeguards
 for
 an
 organized
 return,
 the
 changing
 environment
 makes
it
 prudent
 that
 measures
 are
 initiated
 to
 prepare
 for
 any
 possible
 voluntary
 repatriation
of
 refugees
 as
 well
 as
 the
 return,
 local
 integration
 or
 voluntary
 resettlement
 to
 another
part
 of
 the
 country
 of
 IDPs
 in
 Myanmar.
 Any
 preparations,
 however,
 should
 be
 initiated
with
 due
 caution
 so
 as
 not
 to
 send
 the
 wrong
 “message”
 to
 the
 Government,
 non-‐state
armed
 groups,
 IDPs,
 refugees
 or
 partners
 that
 return
 is
 being
 encouraged
 or
 promoted
at
 this
 stage.

This
 Discussion
 Paper
 seeks
 to
 articulate
 a
 broad
 framework
 which
 should
 guide
UNHCR’s
 engagement
 in
 the
 South-‐East
 in
 2013-‐2015,
 and
 in
 particular,
 to
 define
 the
parameters
 of
 UNHCR’s
 role
 in
 supporting:

i. durable
 solutions
 for
 IDPs;
 and
ii. the
 sustainable
 reintegration
 of
 returning
 refugees.

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treatment. District level is an additional interesting level of analysis, since it captures effects

through the fiscal channel, and has previously been employed in, for example, Loyaza, Mier y

Teran, and Rigolini (2013) to measure income inequality across mining districts in Peru. With

Ghana’s tax-sharing rules, district tax income and royalties increase with expansion in gold

extraction (for more information, see section 2). In the district-level analysis, we first use mine

openings as the independent variable, and then we use a richer specification with production

levels. Given the spatial location of mines near district borders, we additionally analyze spatial

spillovers from mining districts to neighboring districts.

**4.2.1 Difference-in-differences at the district level**

The first approach is similar to the local-level approach, only an individual is defined as being

treated by a mine opening if she or he lives in a district with at least one active mine. In total,

our mines are located in 11 mining districts (see figure 3). For districts with several mines, we

define the whole district as active whenever at least one mine is active. Later, we will also

consider district total annual production (tons of gold extracted), and thereby the effect of the

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wages and reduced over-education for migrants working in licensed jobs, while producing worse labour market outcomes for those who did not gain licensure.
According to Peterson et al. (2014), over the 1973–2010 period, U.S. states with more stringent occupational licensing for migrant physicians received fewer new migrant physicians and struggled more with staffing shortages in healthcare. Aleksynska and Tritah (2013) quoted data that migrants in France were denied legal access to approximately 30% of jobs in the country.

Ukrainian refugees Polish citizens Source: Deloitte own elaboration based on mid-2024 SEIS UNHCR survey (Ukrainian refugees’ educational attainment), 2023 Eurostat Labour Force Survey Eurostat (Polish citizens educational attainment), and mid-2024 ZUS administrative data (occupational groups).

**Chart 21. Share of regulated professions by citizenship and legal status, Q2 2024**

**The educational premium seems**

**to be lower for Ukrainian refugees**

**compared to the general workforce**

mid-2024 SEIS UNHCR survey
2023 Eurostat Labour Force Survey

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and control groups being on similar trajectories before mine opening. This assumption is

discussed below when we investigate the balance of treatment and control areas. In particular,

we test for differences in outcomes in areas where mining has not started and compare this to

areas farther away.

While we cannot show the exogeneity of the opening year to local socioeconomic variables,

this assumption has been made in previous literature (e.g. Aragon and Rud, 2015; Benshaul

Tolonen, 2018, 2019; Kotsadam and Tolonen, 2016, von der Goltz and Barnwal, 2019). In

addition, Benshaul-Tolonen (2018, 2019) who explore gold mining, in particular, point to (i)

the rapid increase in large-scale gold mining that occurred during the recent mineral price

supercycle, (ii) the dominance of large multinational firms who are not relying on local labor

market conditions, (iii) and their lower reliance on local infrastructure compared with bulkier

metals and minerals, as gold mining firms may fly out their resources. Despite this, the

assumption of exogenous opening year or exact location remain untested.

In a second method, we use a spatial lag model. Such a model allows for nonlinear effects with

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Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

**The only reliable timeseries of the**

**number of Ukrainians in Poland over**

**the past decade is social insurance**

**data on insured Ukrainian nationals,**

**though it accounts only for workers.**
The focus on workers rather than on the entire group does not change much in the data from before February 2022, as the previous influx consisted mainly of Ukrainians seeking employment in Poland. However, the actual number of employed Ukrainian nationals must have been higher. First, certain types of legal work often undertaken by temporary employees do not require Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

**Chart 4. Age and gender structure of Ukrainian refugees**

**Most of the refugees from Ukraine**

**currently living in Poland are women**

**and children, though over half of**

**the total population is of working**

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On 25 April 2023, in the midst of significant arrivals from Sudan, the Transition President promulgated
[Decree No. 0648/PT/PM/MATDBG/2023 implementing the asylum Law (Decret d’application de la loi d’asile](https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2091861/645b938a4.pdf)
[n°0648/PT/PM/MATDBG/2023 portant modalités d’application de la loi du 31 décembre 2020). This 2023](https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2091861/645b938a4.pdf)
Decree establishes the measures to operationalize the provisions of the 2020 asylum Law. Henceforth, the
combined set of legal instruments, comprising the 2020 asylum Law and the 2023 Decree, is referred to as
the asylum legislation.

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Input:
UNHCR (2023). Poland: Multi-Sector Needs Assessment — Results Overview (MSNA 2023), October, https://data.unhcr.org/fr/documents/details/104427 UNHCR (2025a). Poland: Socio-Economic Insights Survey in Poland - Results Analysis (SEIS 2024). UNHCR, October, https://data.unhcr.org/en/documents/ details/115045 UNHCR (2025b). High employment rates, but low wages: a poverty assessment of Ukrainian refugees in neighboring countries, Regional Refugee Response for the Ukraine Situation, Regional Bureau for Europe, UNHCR.

UNHCR (2025c). Ukraine Multi-year Strategy 2025 – 2027, UNHCR, November.

Urban M. (2022). Refugees will lift economy's potential, but challenges remain, Research Briefing | Poland. Oxford Economics, https://www.oxfordeconomics.
com/resource/refugees-in-poland-will-lift-economys-potential-but-challengesremain/

Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland 47

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Input: but has negative labour market effects due to increased competition for jobs among workers. However, little of these theoretical negative labour market effects can be seen in empirical data. This is because immigrant workers encourage further specialisation among native workers and firms, which increases productivity and offsets the negative effects. The same effects can be expected in the case of refugees entering the Polish labour market – besides increasing labour supply and competing with Polish workers, they provide new skills, ideas, and allow Polish workers to specialize in higher value-added tasks. These effects were included in the estimates of the impact of Ukrainian refugees on Polish GDP by Monitor Deloitte (2022) and Oxford Economics (2022), but these estimates were based on literature rather than Polish empirical data. In Deloitte’s 2024 study, these effects were omitted due to a lack of empirical data with which to calibrate them specifically. This study uses available data, albeit limited, to create a conservative scenario that includes positive impacts on productivity.

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Input:
As of September 2024, Indonesia is host to 11,735 refugees and asylum-seekers (6,548 families)
residing primarily in urban areas throughout the Indonesian archipelago. Almost half of all refugees
and asylum seekers are from Afghanistan, followed by Myanmar, Somalia, and 49 other countries.
UNHCR has a country office in Jakarta and field presence in Aceh, Medan, Makassar, Pekanbaru, and
Tanjung Pinang.

While Indonesia is not signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention, there are provisions for refugee
protection embedded within domestic law (including the 1945 Constitution, the 1999 Human Rights
Law, and the 2016 Presidential Regulation on the Handling of Refugees) and Indonesia generally
respects the right to seek asylum and the principle of non-refoulement. UNHCR continues to work to
advance opportunities for refugee inclusion and participation in Indonesia, including by seeking to
improve access to self-reliance and to national education, health, civil registration, and social systems.

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Displaced
 people
 and
 their
 host
 communities
 in
 South-‐East
 Myanmar
 currently
 face
 a
number
 of
 protection-‐related
 risks
 and
 problems
 such
 as
 the
 lack
 of
 civil
 documentation
(including
 birth
 registration,
 family
 lists
 and
 identity
 documentation
 in
 remote
 areas),
landmines,
 access
 to
 land
 and
 livelihoods,
 forced
 labour,
 forced
 recruitment,
 forced
contribution
 or
 taxation,
 trafficking,
 gender-‐based
 violence
 and,
 in
 some
 cases,
restrictions
 of
 movement.
 The
 protection
 concerns
 are
 often
 exacerbated
 for
 IDPs
 and,
potentially,
 refugees
 upon
 return.

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A
 profiling
 exercise
 covering
 both
 the
 registered
 and
 unregistered
 refugee
 population
residing
 in
 the
 temporary
 shelters
 in
 Thailand,
 will
 be
 carried
 out
 by
 the
 Mae
 Fah
 Luang
Foundation
 on
 behalf
 of
 UNHCR
 in
 2013-‐2014.
 The
 exercise
 will
 permit
 updating
 of
 data
on
 areas
 of
 origin
 (Regions/States,
 districts
 and
 townships,
 and
 village
 tracts/villages)
and
 will
 assess
 the
 intentions
 of
 refugees,
 whether
 that
 would
 be
 for
 eventual
 voluntary
return,
 resettlement
 to
 a
 third
 country
 or
 other
 durable
 solution
 possibilities.
 For
 those
refugees
 that
 intend
 to
 return,
 information
 about
 their
 desired
 or
 intended
 destination
will
 be
 captured
 in
 the
 survey
 (this
 may
 include
 places
 of
 origin
 or
 prior
 habitual
residence,
 or
 other
 locations
 in
 Myanmar).
 The
 major
 focus
 of
 the
 survey
 is
 about
 future

5

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