Input:
_Sona Tahery, a young Afghan woman, found safety in Brazil after fleeing severe restrictions on women’s rights and access to work_
_in her home country. After spending a year as a refugee in Iran, she arrived with her sister and brother-in-law, seeking a new_
_beginning. Now, at Todos Irmãos Shelter in Guarulhos, she is rebuilding her life with dignity and hope._ © _UNHCR// Diego Baravelli_

##### Protection Risk III

**Gender equality and access to rights for refugee women and girls.** Refugee women and girls face
significant barriers to the realization of their rights due to gender roles and power disbalances.
Regardless of their nationality, women and girls face higher unemployment rates, less access to
education opportunities, greater exposure to gender-based violence and additional caregiving
responsibilities. [26] Members of the LGTBQIA+ community face discrimination and stigmatization
due to their sexual orientation and gender identity, and experience barriers in their access to
dignified livelihoods with some of them, especially transgender women, resorting to survival sex
as one of the few viable means to earn a living in the country. [27]


Input:
only statistically significant for boys at an effect size of 6.6 percentage points.

**Table 5 OLS estimates of birth outcomes, infant survival, and child health in the DHS individual-**

**level analysis**

PANEL A                 size at birth            infant mortality (<12months)         antenatal visits
small average large all boys girls # visits at least 1
active*mine 0.022 0.053 -0.075* -0.041* -0.066** -0.020 -0.151 -0.007
(0.028) (0.041) (0.041) (0.022) (0.030) (0.035) (0.331) (0.028)
mine -0.010 0.071** -0.061** 0.004 0.008 0.001 0.153 0.000
(0.019) (0.028) (0.030) (0.015) (0.020) (0.024) (0.241) (0.019)
active -0.010 0.054** -0.044 0.002 0.014 -0.012 0.012 0.002
(0.016) (0.026) (0.027) (0.014) (0.022) (0.018) (0.209) (0.012)

Observations 6,771 6,771 6,771 5,356 2,718 2,638 5,704 5,704
R-squared 0.031 0.054 0.059 0.135 0.160 0.152 0.186 0.062
Mean of dep var. 0.136 0.359 0.505 0.073 0.08 0.066 5.79 0.941

PANEL B in the last 2 weeks, had: anthropometrics (WHO) in sd has
fever     cough    diarrhea ht/a       wt/a      wt/ht health card

active*mine -0.035 -0.061* 0.042 -3.532 -5.208 -0.641 0.014
(0.037) (0.033) (0.027) (11.472) (9.283) (8.948) (0.027)

mine -0.002 -0.006 -0.038 -0.828 3.481 3.853 -0.006
(0.031) (0.028) (0.024) (10.385) (8.574) (7.468) (0.022)

active 0.023 -0.003 -0.033** -1.904 5.265 9.433* 0.009
(0.020) (0.020) (0.016) (5.942) (5.304) (5.183) (0.012)


Input:
Macroeconomic modelling generally finds that immigration increases output, while cross-country econometric estimates find also positive impacts on labour productivity. The first approach builds a theoretical model of the economy calibrated to the particular circumstances, which allows us to simulate counterfactuals and observe all changes in the economy.
The second approach relies on empirical data, usually over many years and countries, trying to isolate the effect of immigration, but gives no information on the channels through which these effects operate. In the present case it would not be practical to follow anything else than the first approach. Unfortunately, it relies on the canonical labour market model.
As Peri (2014) elaborates, that model assumes that immigration is simply a shift in the labour supply for a given labour demand and given labour supply of native workers. It further assumes that immigrants are essentially identical to natives in that they enter the same 38

empirical data


Input:
It
 builds
 upon
 a
 separate
 discussion
 paper
 dated
 1
 October
 2012,
 which
 sets
 out
 a
framework
 for
 voluntary
 repatriation
 for
 Myanmar
 refugees
 from
 Thailand.
 The
 papers
should
 form
 the
 basis
 of
 a
 more
 detailed
 operational
 strategy
 for
 2013-‐2015,
 and
 should
also
 serve
 as
 the
 first
 step
 towards
 a
 consultative
 multi-‐stakeholder
 process,
 engaging
Government,
 civil
 society,
 UN
 and
 NGO
 partners,
 donors
 and
 refugees
 and
 IDPs
themselves,
 to
 elaborate
 a
 shared
 vision
 and
 strategy
 for
 support
 to
 durable
 solutions
 in
the
 South-‐East.
 The
 document
 outlines
 UNHCR’s
 general
 principles
 and
 standards
 as
well
 as
 context-‐specific
 objectives
 and
 activities.

**2.** **CONTEXT**

**2.1.
 Political
 environment**


Input:
_UNHCR
 Discussion
 Paper
 –15
 June
 2013_

from
 the
 temporary
 shelters
 in
 Thailand
 to
 their
 place
 of
 origin,
 the
 majority
 of
 whom
are
 single
 males
 who
 stated
 that
 they
 had
 returned
 to
 assess
 the
 security
 situation
 and
start
 re-‐establishing
 their
 livelihood
 before
 the
 return
 of
 other
 family
 members.
 The
dimensions
 of
 this
 spontaneous
 return
 movement
 have
 been,
 so
 far,
 negligible.

While
 the
 dimensions
 of
 IDP
 return
 movements
 remain
 extremely
 difficult
 to
 assess,
some
 37,000
 IDPs
 are
 estimated
 by
 the
 The
 Border
 Consortium
 (TBC)
 to
 have
 returned
home
 or
 resettled
 in
 surrounding
 areas
 between
 August
 2011
 and
 July
 2012 [3] .

If
 the
 current
 trend
 of
 political
 and
 socio-‐economic
 reforms
 continues
 and
 as
 larger
political
 events
 draw
 closer,
 such
 as
 the
 ASEAN/AEC
 agenda
 with
 Myanmar
 as
 Chair
 in
2014,
 a
 national
 census
 in
 2014,
 and
 national
 elections
 in
 2015,
 then
 the
 momentum
 to
translate
 cease-‐fire
 negotiations
 into
 peace
 agreements
 may
 increase.
 This
 may
 lead
 to
an
 increase
 in
 the
 number
 of
 spontaneous
 returns
 and
 the
 possibility
 of
 sudden
demands
 upon
 UNHCR
 to
 facilitate
 the
 voluntary
 repatriation
 of
 refugees.

**2.2.
 Protection
 environment**


Input:
Regionally, 6% of men aged 18–34 report a disability, compared to 2% of women in this age group. A similar trend is observed for the 35–59 age group, with 8% of men and 4% of women reporting a disability respectively. The higher prevalence among men is likely related to the fact that men without a disability are less likely to leave Ukraine.

0-4 5-17 18-34 35-59 60+ years old (N=19,622) These findings suggest that health services should be tailored to address these gender and agerelated dynamics, as should the dissemination of information about available services.

**9**


Input:
Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

**Chart 19. Tertiary education and corresponding** **Chart 20. Ukrainian refugees median net wages by**

**occupational groups shares** **educational attainment**

4,300 4,275

**Addressing occupational downgrading**

**could bring macroeconomic benefits.**
To demonstrate the potential impact, a simulation was conducted in which the underrepresentation of refugees in higher-paying occupations was reduced by half. It was not assumed that there would be no differences between refugees and Polish citizens, as some barriers (such as Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland country-specific knowledge and business networks) are more difficult to address than others (such as language skills and occupational licensing). However, if the gap was narrowed by half, the average wage of refugees would increase by approximately 10%. Assuming that the productivity increase is equivalent to the wage increase, this would result in PLN 3.5 billion of added 40% Tertiary education share 25-64 age group surveys Managers, professionals, and technicians ZUS-insured employment share


Input:
THE ROLE OF HOUSING SUPPORT AND EMPLOYMENT FACILITATION IN ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY OF REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE

**Regular employment** **[11]** **- key for refugee household**

**prosperity**
The income composition of refugee households above and below the poverty line is very different.
Regular employment represents 74% of total income in the wealthier group compared to just 35% for lower earners. In part, this is explained by higher labor force participation [12] (68% vs 49%), which is tied to differences in household composition. The age dependency ratio [13], for example, stands at 52% in the higher earning group versus 77% for households with a lower income. Additionally, however, members of households above the poverty line are significantly more successful in finding work - their unemployment rate is twice as low at 10%, and half as many are working part time (14% vs 31%).


Input:
To show the robustness of these results, we have tried three alternative strategies for each of

the outcomes. In row 2, we drop the sample that lives 20 to 40 km away, since they might be

affected by the mine; in row 3, we drop the sample that was surveyed two years prior to mine

opening; in row 4, we add closest mine fixed effects; and in row 5 we cluster on the closest

mine. The coefficients do not change much, even if some magnitudes become bigger and the

estimates more significant. However, as in the results using DHS data, these estimates are not

precisely measured – few are statistically significant because the standard errors appear large.

Women are 7.4 to 10.4 percentage points more likely to work in service or sales if they live

close to a mine (depending on the estimations in panel A columns 4, only one statistically

significant estimate). Women close to mines are 2.5 to 2.6 percentage points more likely to

work in mining (only one statistically significant estimate).

Men, on the other hand, (results shown in panel B of table 12), are significantly more likely to

DHS data


Input:
to work, but only in a designated health care center, and for no longer than five years without the possibility of extension.
In February 2022, Ukrainian psychologists were allowed to provide services to other Ukrainian citizens, but only for 18 months.
While such changes are likely to be extended, they do not motivate Ukrainian refugees – unsure, if they will be allowed to continue practice in the long term – to acquire the necessary skills, for instance to improve language fluency or invest in professional courses. Instead, the refugees may prefer to seek opportunities in other countries or change their line of work to one that will be more accessible, but less valuable for the Polish economy.


Input:
Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

# Non-technical summary

Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland Swift legal action facilitated labour market integration of refugees. After the beginning of the full-scale war on 26th February 2022, the European Union activated the Temporary Protection Directive on 4th March 2022, and the Polish parliament passed a special act to facilitate refugee integration on 12th March 2022. Ukrainian refugees in Poland were granted instant access to the job market, health care, and education. The authorities granted people escaping Ukraine legal residency for a period of eighteen months and enabled them to access digital services and basic administrative systems like PESEL.
Thus, the policies that have previously hampered job market integration of refugees in other contexts, such as temporary labour market bans (Fasani, Frattini, & Minale, 2021) and forced dispersals (Fasani, Frattini, & Minale, 2022), have been avoided.


Input:
_On World Refugee Day, refugees and local families in Porto Alegre's Sarandi neighborhood shared a meal and received support._
_The event, organized by UNHCR partners, acknowledged the solidarity shown during recent floods and celebrated the rebuilding_
_of lives by refugees from Venezuela, Haiti, Colombia, and Afghanistan, among others._ © _UNHCR/Ricardo Ara._

### Challenges & Opportunities

Since 2018, Brazil has supported refugees and migrants from Venezuela through a comprehensive
humanitarian federal initiative known as “Operacao Acolhida” . The Operation primarily focuses
on the northern State of Roraima, the main entry point for Venezuelans into Brazil, where
reception, documentation, shelter, and other forms of humanitarian assistance are provided.


Input:
and girls. Maternal and reproductive health services remain underdeveloped in some areas, struggling
to be fully effective due to a lack of material and financial support.

**5.2** **Social inclusion**

The most significant differences or restrictions in terms of socio-economic development affecting refugees
with particular characteristics are:

**a.** **Access to biometric identity cards and unique identifier number:** The continued lack of access to

legally recognized identity cards for refugees issued by the competent authority in Chad, ANATS, and
national identification numbers, challenges their inclusion into national system and limits their socioeconomic integration in the country.

**b.** **Access to civil registry civil status documents:** The low percentage of registered births, due to

significant deficiencies in the Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) system in Chad, especially in
rural areas, exposes refugees born in Chad to the risk of statelessness.

R E F U G E E P O L I C Y R E V I E W F R A M E W O R K > **R E P U B L I C O F C H A D** 13

Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS)


Input:
of human trafficking in different states of

Venezuela through a service mapping

exercise that was implemented.

**IX. Protection Mainstreaming**

**Training**

**The PC in collaboration with the**

of Performing Arts, over 140 people

attended the play, including community

members, representatives from NGOs

and INGOs, and agency representatives.

Drawing on testimonies and real

data, and with the technical support

of UNHCR, IOM, and the Venezuela

Protection Cluster, the authors of the

play have crafted an original and avant
garde dramaturgy that highlights the

issue of TiP and its associated risks. Two

additional performances are scheduled

for the last week of November (in

Petare) and another in December in

Chichiriviche de La Costa, La Guaira,

in commemoration of the 16 days of

activism for the International Day for the

Eradication of Violence against Women.

**VI. Annual TiP Bulletin 2022-2023**

**After one year of the creation of the**

**6**

**WGTiP, an annual bulletin was pub-**

**lished in October.** This document

consolidates information from the quar
terly bulletins of 2022 and 2023 and

provides a context analysis of TiP in

Venezuela, raising awareness on new

information and dynamics and highlights

counter-trafficking efforts of members

with a specific focus on activities for the


Input:
agri- service profess- manual not earns works
culture sales ional labor working cash all year
PANEL A: Women

active*mine -0.025 0.024 -0.017* 0.012 0.006 0.054** -0.013
(0.039) (0.031) (0.009) (0.021) (0.023) (0.026) (0.033)
mine -0.025 0.056* -0.001 -0.012 -0.018 -0.069*** -0.012
(0.031) (0.029) (0.008) (0.018) (0.020) (0.022) (0.024)
active 0.014 -0.000 -0.006 0.009 -0.016 -0.037** -0.007
(0.015) (0.016) (0.006) (0.011) (0.012) (0.015) (0.016)

Observations 12,176 12,176 12,176 12,176 12,176 9,262 7,085
R-squared 0.350 0.103 0.124 0.024 0.234 0.095 0.042
Mean of dep var. 0.237 0.358 0.045 0.117 0.739 0.891 0.877

PANEL B: Men

active*mine 0.050 0.020 0.027 -0.069* 0.006 -0.013 -0.015
(0.051) (0.020) (0.026) (0.036) (0.023) (0.028) (0.051)
mine -0.060 0.002 0.000 0.041 -0.018 -0.009 0.066*
(0.042) (0.016) (0.020) (0.030) (0.020) (0.028) (0.039)
active 0.000 0.002 -0.001 -0.029 -0.016 -0.107*** -0.025
(0.021) (0.014) (0.015) (0.020) (0.012) (0.039) (0.028)

Observations 7,157 7,157 7,157 7,157 7,157 4,374 2,794
R-squared 0.290 0.415 0.084 0.183 0.076 0.107 0.104
Mean of dep var. 0.328 0.111 0.137 0.214 0.209 0.928 0.841


Input:
The overlap between certain mental health problems, such as difficulties with memory, concentration, or self-care, and the criteria used to assess disability further demonstrates the complex interplay between these factors. The data also suggests that structural and systemic differences between countries may influence outcomes, as reflected in the varying rates reported. These findings highlight the critical need for inclusive MHPSS strategies that address the unique needs of individuals with disabilities and provide targeted interventions to reduce barriers and ensure equitable access to support. Additionally, further analysis of country-specific contexts could help uncover underlying factors driving these disparities.

**% OF INDIVIDUALS WHO REPORTED EXPERIENCING**

**A MENTAL HEALTH OR PSYCHOSOCIAL PROBLEM BY**

**DISABILITY STATUS AND COUNTRY**

With disability Without disability Regional Romania Hungary Poland Bulgaria Estonia Lithuania Slovakia Czechia Latvia Moldova (N=17,934)

**25**


Input:
**positive impact on labour productivity.**
In the earlier report, the overall positive impact of refugees was reduced based on conservative assumptions, in the absence of available/clear data on the increased competition in the labour market. The model notably considered lower wages and higher unemployment among native workers. However, recent data indicates that these concerns did not materialize.
Instead, Polish workers have moved on to better paid occupations, and the economy has benefited from a larger pool of talent, enabling deeper specialization and increased productivity growth.

##### Remaining challenges

**Despite significant progress in**

**integrating refugees into the labour**

**market, several challenges persist.**
Refugees are half as likely to have an employment contract as Polish citizens and few of them achieve high incomes.
Although refugees have been moving on to more desirable professions at a faster rate than other groups in the economy, their jobs continue to be disproportionately skewed towards elementary occupations.
These issues are most evident among those with university diplomas, but those with below university education also face obstacles. As of June 2024, there were several interconnected issues:

**•** **There is a disparity between the**

**educational attainment and labour**

**market position of refugees,**

**reflecting their significant over-**

recent data


Input:
NAVIGATING HEALTH AND WELL-BEING CHALLENGES FOR REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE

### **Contents**

###### Executive summary 3 Context  5 Methodology  6 Limitations  7 Sample demographics  8 Health analysis  10 Mental Health and Psychosocial Support (MHPSS) 19 Recommendations 28

### **Acknowledgements**

We gratefully acknowledge the contributions of many individuals and organizations who contributed to this report. The regional analysis was facilitated by the Regional SEIS Health and Mental Health Sector Analysis Group, co-coordinated by Ardita Tahirukaj (WHO), Sandra Harlass (UNHCR), Monica Zikusooka (WHO) and Sofia Casas (UNHCR). The data analysis was conducted by Irma Sirutyte (UNHCR). Writing of the report was led by the co-coordinators along with Arianna Pearlstein (UN Women), Iuliana Gutu (UNFPA), Leah James (UNICEF), Liqun Gao (UNHCR), and Luna Mehrain (UNFPA).

Thanks to Jad Ghosn and the Regional Bureau for Europe (UNHCR) for their guidance, review and support on the regional SEIS analysis for health and MHPSS.

Acknowledgements include also those who reviewed the report: Agron Gashi (UNICEF), Chiaki Ito (IOM), Erin Autumn Neale (IOM), Greisy Trejo (IFRC), Heide Rieder (IOM), Melita Murkom (WHO), Pieter Ventevogel (UNHCR), Ursula Wagner (IOM).


Input:
would increase GDP by 0.9-1.3% – the mid to higher bound of our estimate.
Third, Urban (2022) uses an Oxford Economics model to estimate the impact of Ukrainian refugees on the potential GDP by 2030 and 2050, including a positive shock to the total factor productivity growth. This yields GDP higher by 1.5-2.6% by 2030, significantly higher than our long-term estimate – the higher result is likely due to the increase in TFP that we do not include in our modelling. Fourth, Monitor Deloitte (2022) provided an early wide estimate of the economic impact of Ukrainian refugees.
This would translate into 0.9-2.4% higher GDP, also due to the possibility of a positive productivity shock. We review the relevant literature on the impacts of immigration on productivity in Chapter 4.


Input:
mean value of the independent variable is 0.085 - that is, on average women are close to 0.085

mines. Conditional on being close to a mine, the main independent variable is 1.33 - that is, a

woman sampled close to a mine is close to 1.33 mines on average. Panel C of table A3 shows

the effects on women’s labor market participation. We note that the estimates are similar in

direction as before, where mines are positively associated with service and sales jobs and with

cash earnings, but negatively associated with agriculture and professional jobs.

Panel D of table A3 shows the results if we drop the part of the sample that lives 20 km to 40

km away from a mine, and if we drop those that are sampled two years before mine opening.

The rationale for this is to have a cleaner control group, since those that live just outside our 20

km cutoff distance may also be “treated” by the mine, and the investment phase of the mine

that precedes initial production can generate substantial employment. Overall, the effects do

not change much except making the cash earnings coefficient larger and more significant. The


Input:
Source: Deloitte own elaboration based on mid-2024 SEIS UNHCR survey (Ukrainian refugees’ educational attainment and median net wages), 2023 Eurostat Labour Force Survey Eurostat (Polish citizens educational attainment), and mid-2024 ZUS administrative data (occupational groups).

**Widespread occupational licensing**

**is a serious obstacle to an efficient**

**use of Ukrainian refugees’ human**

**capital.** Poland has the third highest
number of regulated professions among the 28 European Union member states, according to European Commission’s Regulated Professions Database. This can be a problem, as occupational licensing is cited in the literature among the reasons for occupational downgrading of migrants.
Cassidy and Dacass (2021) found that in the United States, immigrants were significantly less likely to have a license than similar

#### **4.2 Access to regulated professions**

2023 Eurostat Labour Force Survey

European Commission’s Regulated Professions Database

mid-2024 ZUS administrative data


Input:
Expanding community-based MHPSS services that integrate formal services and promote the use of informal supports will enhance service delivery.
Public awareness campaigns, tailored to both refugees and host communities, should aim to reduce stigma and improve knowledge of available support. Gender-responsive and age-sensitive approaches are necessary, particularly for adult men and adolescent boys, to encourage help-seeking behaviours and ensure that services are tailored to the specific needs of children and adolescents.
Lastly, further research is required to gain a deeper understanding of unmet health needs—including SRH and MHPSS needs—and the barriers to access, to inform more effective, inclusive, and contextsensitive interventions.

**4**


Input:
increase in off-shore oil revenue accruing to municipalities, alongside increased illegal activity

by mayors (Caselli and Michaels, 2010). We estimate district level effects on living standards

(in mining districts, but no spillovers to adjacent districts, in line with Mamo et al, 2019), but

do not have further information on public spending by sector to put these effects in context to

expected changes. Political outcomes such as clientelism, corruption and reelection of local

36


Input:
Deloitte’s D.Climate general equilibrium model finds that refugees from Ukraine contributed 0.7-1.1% to GDP cumulatively in 2023. In the long-term this effect will grow to 0.9-1.35% as the economy fully adjusts.
The increases in government revenue from direct and indirect taxes due to wages and private consumption of refugees from Ukraine was likewise modelled.
These increases amounted to 0.8-1.0% higher general government revenues in 2022, 1.3-1.6% in 2023, and 0.95-1.13% in the long term. This implies that, while there are no precise public data on the government support to refugees from Ukraine, while a government official quoted cost figures of 15-20 billion PLN in 2022 and around 5 billion in 2023 [50] have been already offset by refugees via taxes of 12.3-15.2 billion PLN in 2022 and 18.2-22.5 billion PLN in 2023.

All the modelling results are conservative lower bound estimates, as econometric studies from other countries have found immigration to have additionally a positive impact on labour productivity that cannot be accounted for using the available data.
These effects could stem from the growth in specialisation due to additional workers with different skillsets appearing on the labour market, e.g., occupational upgrading of native workers.

---
[50] E.g. vice-president of Polish Development Found Bartosz Marczuk estimated it at around 16 billion PLN, but this estimation also included spending of


Input:
The regional analysis is grounded in consolidated data from the Socio-Economic Insights Survey (SEIS), conducted across ten countries: Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Republic of Moldova, Romania, and Slovakia. Data for the country-specific SEISs were collected through in-person interviews from May to July 2024.

The total sample size comprises **8,720 households** and **19,803 household members**, with respondents providing information on behalf of all individuals within their households.

**COUNTRY** **SAMPLE SIZE 2023** **SAMPLE SIZE 2024**

Bulgaria 1,054 1,072 Czechia 1,218 1,215 Estonia - 600 Hungary 682 801 Latvia - 600 Lithuania - 638 Moldova 890 622 Poland 5,645 1,290 Romania 1,222 1,008 Slovakia 819 874

**Total** **11,530** **8,720**

Each country adopted a unique sampling approach, dependent on factors such as the availability of sampling frames and information regarding population distribution by geographic area and accommodation type. A combination of different sampling methods was used, typically incorporating multiple stages and blending convenience sampling, cluster random sampling, and simple random sampling (the latter being exclusive to Romania). It is important to highlight that Hungary and Moldova modified its sampling approach, which limits the comparability of its results across years.

Socio-Economic Insights Survey (SEIS)


Input:
Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland To account for refugees impact on economy shocks for economy were calibrated according to existing data.
As the refugees started coming to Poland by the end of February and in March 2022 it was assumed that their impact on the economy should be seen starting from the second quarter of 2022. As such their primary impact on yearly data was divided as between 2022 and 2023 setting 3⁄4 of it in 2022 and 1⁄4 in 2023. The total number of refugees was set according to the newest data from the PESEL registry (Chart 3. in Chapter 1). Their employment was calibrated to match data presented in Chapter 2. Changes in population and

PESEL registry


Input:
Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

**Box 1.** Inflow of savings from Ukraine

**Chart 13.** Income structure of Ukrainian refugee households

**5%** **1%**

Work (regular-, temporary-,and self-employment in Poland, remote employment in Ukraine Remittances from friends/relatives Polish government benefits (Family 500+, cash benefits, disability grants) Ukrainian government benefits (pensions, disability grants, parental benefits) Other (humanitarian organizations, other sources)

**Source:** Deloitte elaboration based on the MSNA Poland 2023. The work category includes regular employment, temporary work, self-employment
and remote work in Ukraine.

31 [Cudzoziemcy w polskim systemie ubezpieczeń społecznych (zus.pl)](https://www.zus.pl/documents/10182/2322024/Cudzoziemcy+w+polskim+systemie+ubezpiecze%C5%84+spo%C5%82ecznych_2022.pdf/) 32 According to NBP (2023), there were few respondents in this situation, and they most likely had secured other sources of income.

28 29

MSNA Poland 2023


Input:
The government of Chad continues to ensure the security of refugees and asylum-seekers through the
Humanitarian Workers and Refugee Detachment (DPHR). Generally, refugees are not more exposed to
[existing violence and crime. According to protection data collected through Project 21](https://response.reliefweb.int/west-and-central-africa/protection/projet-21) (‘regional protection
monitoring’) approximately 15 per cent of refugees and asylum-seekers claim to have been victims of
physical assault, but it is noteworthy that these cases occurred in the country of origin at the time of fleeing.

While rape and child marriage remain prohibited by Law, other forms of gender-based violence (GBV)
are insufficiently covered by existing Laws and policies to protect the Chadian and refugee populations.
The national policy to respond to GBV, in effect since 2011, applies in refugee camps and refugee hosting
villages but faces challenges due to limited resources (human and logistic) to fully implement this policy. The
referral mechanism for refugee victims for medical, legal and psychosocial support remains in place but its
effectiveness depends on the human and financial resources available in the relevant hosting areas.

protection data collected through Project 21


Input:
45 Based on number of economically active people in III quarter of 2023 according to labour market survey.
46 E.g. vice-president of Polish Development Found Bartosz Marczuk estimated it at around 16 billion PLN, but this estimation also included spending of NGOs which was combined with spendings of local governments Polska pomoc dla Ukrainy 2022 - ile kosztowała? - Infor.pl.

labour market survey


Input:
labour supply in Poland were offset by equivalent changes for Eastern Europe region [41] . It was also assumed that refugees should have higher spending needs which means a lower saving rate than natives.
Moreover, data shows that it is partially financed by savings they have in Ukrainian banks which was calibrated as them having negative saving rate while being offset by lowering investment levels in Eastern Europe [42] . Lastly, their productivity may differ from productivity of natives (Box 2) which also was taken into account.
In total there were three major sources of uncertainty: total level of employment, productivity, and impact on consumption.


Input:
The
 sustainability
 of
 IDP
 (and
 potentially,
 refugee)
 returns
 is
 also
 still
 hampered
 by
limited
 access
 to
 livelihood
 opportunities.
 At
 present,
 access
 to
 livelihood
 resources
 and
training
 opportunities
 are
 scarce.
 Returning
 IDPs
 and
 refugees
 may
 have
 lost
 the
productive
 assets
 needed
 to
 restart
 agriculture,
 while
 homes
 have
 been
 destroyed
 by
the
 conflict
 or
 have
 fallen
 into
 disrepair.

Additionally,
 distances
 are
 substantial
 between
 the
 temporary
 shelters
 in
 Thailand
 and
potential
 return
 areas.
 Many
 of
 the
 places
 of
 origin
 of
 registered
 refugees
 in
 Thailand
 are
particularly
 isolated
 and
 have
 received
 little
 investment
 in
 infrastructure.
 Investment
 in
repatriation
 infrastructure,
 including
 transit
 centres
 or
 way
 stations,
 will
 be
 required
 in
case
 of
 an
 organized
 repatriation
 movement.

**3.** **POPULATION
 OF
 CONCERN
 IN
 SOUTH-‐EAST
 MYANMAR**

**3.1.
 Refugees
 in
 Thailand**

UNHCR’s
 current
 area
 of
 operations
 in
 South-‐East
 Myanmar
 covers
 Kayin,
 Kayah,
 and
Mon
 States,
 and
 Taninthayri
 Regions.
 These
 are
 the
 primary
 places
 of
 origin
 of
 the
estimated
 128,876
 Myanmar
 refugees
 residing
 in
 the
 temporary
 shelters
 along
 the
border
 in
 Thailand,
 and
 are
 assumed
 to
 be
 the
 primary
 potential
 areas
 of
 return.


Input:
_Note:_ Panel A shows the location of the gold mines that were active during the study period. Around each circle,
a 20-km radius is marked. These 40-km-wide areas are the baseline treatment areas in the analysis. Panel B shows
the 100-km treatment areas and the distribution of the DHS clusters. Road data is an alternative way of defining
distance from mines, but time series data on roads is not available.

**3.2 Household data**

We use microdata from the DHS, obtained from standardized surveys across years and

countries. We combine the respondents from all four DHS standard surveys in Ghana for which

there are geographic identifiers. The total data set includes 19,705 women (of which 12,392

live within 100 km of a mine) aged 15–49 from 137 districts. They were surveyed in 1993,

1998, 2003, and 2008, [6] and live in 1,623 survey clusters. Since the DHS surveys focus on

women, the surveys of women will be the main source of data. However, we also use the

surveys of men, which give us data from the same four survey years, but with a total number of

---
[6] The first mines were opened in 1990, prior to the first household survey. Ten mines were opened after the first

DHS standard surveys

microdata from the DHS

surveys of men


Input:
emotional well-being, as well as local integration prospects. In this sense, some Afghan women
have reported a strict control exerted by male family members, which translates into their
confinement in the domestic realm.

##### Protection Risk IV

**Trafficking in persons, forced labor or slavery-like practices.** Although asylum seekers, refugees,
and other forcibly displaced persons have the same labor rights as nationals in Brazil, they
encounter several obstacles to their economic integration. The experience of displacement,
coupled with high levels of unemployment, informal labor, and poverty, heighten the risk of this
population to fall prey of human traffickers. According to official data, between 2021 and 2023,
355 refugees and migrants of all nationalities were rescued from forced labor or slavery-like
practices in Brazil from various economic sectors, primarily in timber trade, cassava cultivation,
clothing manufacturing, road transportation, and tobacco. [33 ]


Input:
[The new asylum legislation - specifically Article 31 of the 2020 Law and Article 73 of the 2023 Decree](https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2091861/645b938a4.pdf)   provides for the issuance of refugee identity cards by the competent national authority. It outlines that the
refugee identity card is valid for five years, renewable and is issued for each refugee of 18 years old and
above. Despite this new asylum legislation, UNHCR continues to give substantial support to the Refugee
Government counterpart, CNARR, including by issuing individual refugee cards to adults, family refugee
attestations and household ration cards. There have been no changes in the documentation process for
adult refugees and asylum-seekers. Additionally, UNHCR continue to support CNARR to issue asylumseeker certificates valid for six months and their renewal.


Input:
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)      (7)       (8) (9)
ln ln ln ln household level ln expenditure
wages wages wages pc total health hh
all women men exp. exp. food    housing   education energy

active*mine 0.520** 0.694*** 0.391 -0.178* -0.126 -0.069 0.316** -0.168 0.297**
(0.226) (0.241) (0.238) (0.093) (0.089) (0.095) (0.139) (0.199) (0.119)

Observations 6,226 2,914 3,312 7,522 7,522 7,396 7,420 6,541 4,752
R-squared 0.121 0.128 0.118 0.959 0.964 0.963 0.933 0.837 0.950

_controls_

individual Y Y Y

hh head Y Y Y Y Y Y
hh size Y Y Y Y Y
district fe Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
year fe Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

deflated N N N Y Y N N N N
mean (ln) 15.30 15.29 15.31 13.04 14.19 13.42 10.88 10.74 9.52

_Note:_ (1) Annual wages and salaries for individuals in all ages (nondeflated).
(2) Annual wages and salaries for women in all ages (nondeflated).
(3) Annual wages and salaries for men in all ages (nondeflated).
(4) Real per capita annual food and nonfood expenditure (regionally deflated).


Input:
_UNHCR
 Discussion
 Paper
 –15
 June
 2013_

reintegration
 of
 refugees
 as
 is
 the
 norm
 in
 repatriation
 operations
 across
 the
 world.
 The
agreement
 would
 govern
 the
 procedures
 for
 entry
 into
 Myanmar
 and
 modalities
 for
reception,
 registration,
 immediate
 humanitarian
 assistance,
 and
 travel
 to
 places
 of
destination.
 Another
 key
 aspect
 will
 be
 access
 and
 monitoring
 of
 returnee
 areas,
 as
 well
as
 the
 immediately
 needed
 support
 to
 the
 reintegration
 process.

UNHCR’s
 2008
 Policy
 on
 Return
 and
 Reintegration
 defines
 reintegration
 as
 the
reduction
 and
 ultimately
 the
 disappearance
 of
 any
 factors
 that
 differentiate
 returnees
from
 other
 members
 of
 their
 community
 in
 terms
 of
 both
 their
 legal
 and
 socio-‐economic
status.
 Therefore,
 reintegration
 is
 a
 comprehensive,
 gradual
 and
 dynamic
 effort
 that
involves
 the
 establishment
 of
 conditions
 which
 enable
 returnees
 and
 their
 communities
to
 exercise
 their
 social,
 economic,
 civil,
 political
 and
 cultural
 rights,
 and
 on
 that
 basis
 to
enjoy
 peaceful,
 productive
 and
 dignified
 lives.

The
 definition
 of
 a
 comprehensive,
 multi-‐year
 strategy
 for
 return
 and
 reintegration
should
 therefore
 be
 framed
 by
 and
 support
 development
 plans.
 Strategic
 plans
 should
cover
 all
 key
 relevant
 sectors:
 legal,
 economic,
 social,
 and
 environmental,
 and
 guide
 the
division
 of
 roles
 and
 responsibilities
 between
 relief,
 development,
 public
 and
 private
stakeholders.


Input:
**ZUS** - Zakład Ubezpieczeń Społecznych, Polish social security administration, also known as Social Insurance Institution.

44 Chart 1. Poland-Ukraine border movement balance and registered/active PESEL data 07 Chart 2. Ukrainians registered for social insurance 07 Chart 3. Number of Ukrainians registered in Poland for social insurance by sex 08 Chart 4. Age and gender structure of Ukrainian refugees 09 Chart 5. Ukrainian refugee households’ demographic composition 10 Chart 6. Local population shares of Ukrainian refugees 11 Chart 7. Income of Ukrainian refugee households by source 12 Chart 8. Ukrainian refugee household incomes from Poland and Ukraine in 2023 and 2024 12 Chart 9. Ukrainian refugee labour status 15 Chart 10. Ukrainian refugee median net wage 15 Chart 11. Main occupational groups of Ukrainian refugees, pre-war Ukrainians, other foreigners, and Polish citizens registered for social insurance, Q2 2022 and Q2 2024 (civilian, non-agricultural) 16 Chart 12. Ukrainian refugee wages relative to Polish citizens in the same employee-cells 17 Chart 13. Polish citizens and Ukrainian refugees’ employment rates by age group 18 Chart 14. Ukrainian refugee median net wage estimates in Q2 2024 19 Chart 15. Ukrainian refugees wages median net wage by age group 20 Chart 16. Median net wages of Ukrainian refugees median net wage by sector  21 Chart 17. Gross domestic product growth paths with and without Ukrainian refugees 23 Chart 18. Over-qualification rates by citizenship 27 Chart 19. Tertiary education and corresponding occupational groups shares 28 Chart 20. Ukrainian refugees median net wages by educational attainment 28 Chart 21. Share of regulated professions by citizenship and legal status, Q2 2024 29 Chart 22. Econometric model of determinants of Ukrainian refugees’ net wages 32 Chart 23. Average number of months since arrival of a Ukrainian refugee by Polish language fluency 33 Chart 24. What Ukrainian refugee groups have weakest Polish language fluency? 33 Chart 25. Ukrainian refugees’ employment rate in the 18-64 age group by previous status in Ukraine 34 Chart 26. Polish citizens employment rate  38 Chart 27. Polish citizens unemployment rate 38 Chart 28. Effect of a 1 pp. change in employment share of Ukrainian refugees on 39 Chart 29. Effect of a 1 pp. change in employment share of Ukrainian refugees on gross wage change 41 Chart 30. Polish citizens occupational distribution change by salary bracket, Q2 2022 and Q2 2024 41 Chart 31. Labour market activity rates  42 Chart 32. Average weekly hours in main job 42

registered/active PESEL data


Input:
Death Rates, Adolescent Mothers, and

Children and Adolescents out of school

using primary data from the MSNA and

secondary data sources.

Calculations were refined using qualita
tive information obtained from experts

during needs assessments validation

workshops conducted in Miranda, Zulia,

Falcón, Bolívar, Delta Amacuro, Sucre,

Amazonas, Apure, Táchira, Lara, and

the Capital District. The overall PIN for

the Protection Cluster is 4,425,466.00,

representing a 5% increase compared

to the calculation for the Humanitarian

Response Plan (HRP) 2022-2023.

Further, throughout October, the national

Protection Cluster participated in the

facilitation of extended OCHA Local

Coordination Fora meetings in the states

of Miranda, Sucre, Bolivar, Delta Ama
curo, Apure, Amazonas, Táchira, Zulia,

Falcón, and Lara. The primary objective

of these workshops was to validate data

collected from the MNSA on the human
itarian situation of the respective state

and, to gather complementary informa

tion to contribute to the narrative of the

HNO. Finally, it helped to validate the

prioritization of municipalities in collabo
ration with Cluster partners and OCHA.

**II.** **Coordination** **with** **other**

**platforms, subnational Clusters,**

**ICCG, and Partners**

**Coordination with the Response for**

**Venezuela (R4V) continued through-**

**out September and October through**

**bilateral meetings and common work-**

primary data from the MSNA

MSNA

secondary data sources


Input:
_UNHCR
 Discussion
 Paper
 –15
 June
 2013_

Also
 in
 2012
 UNHCR
 received
 authorization
 to
 open
 offices
 in
 Hpa-‐an
 in
 Kayin
 State
 and
Loikaw
 in
 Kayah
 State,
 although
 this
 is
 still
 to
 be
 formalised.
 Access
 remains
 restricted
in
 certain
 areas
 and
 is
 dependent
 on
 Government
 authorization
 and
 restrictive
 advance
clearance
 procedures,
 especially
 for
 international
 staff.
 However,
 there
 have
 been
incremental
 improvements
 in
 access
 in
 areas
 close
 to
 the
 Thai
 border,
 particularly
 as
 the
cease-‐fire
 process
 has
 become
 embedded.
 Nonetheless,
 humanitarian
 access,
 and
 the
degree
 to
 which
 UNHCR
 is
 free
 to
 assess
 needs
 and
 to
 effectively
 target
 its
 support
 to
 the
most
 vulnerable
 displaced
 and
 host
 communities
 varies
 considerably
 from
 state
 to
 state.

**5.** **LEGAL,
 INSTITUTIONAL
 AND
 POLICY
 FRAMEWORKS,
 AND
 KEY**

**PRINCIPLES**


Input:
**time.** In the SEIS UNHCR survey, on
average, Ukrainian refugees who said they were fluent in Polish had stayed in Poland for 29 months, while those with an intermediate level – for only 22 months.
The results are interesting, especially the fact that the average time required to 32 33 progress from advanced to fluent language levels was longer than from intermediate to advanced, or beginner to intermediate (although not from zero to beginner). It is likely that the highest level of fluency, which may be required in some of the most attractive occupations, is also the hardest to achieve, and such language courses are not as readily available.

SEIS UNHCR survey


Input:
_UNHCR
 Discussion
 Paper
 –15
 June
 2013_

livelihoods,
 household
 and
 family
 security
 issues,
 as
 well
 as
 about
 past,
 present
 and
possibly
 future
 skill-‐sets
 that
 will
 help
 the
 refugees
 to
 return
 to
 a
 normal
 life
 outside
 the
camp.
 This
 information
 will
 also
 help
 in
 identifying
 both
 the
 major
 return
 areas
 and
 all
other
 locations
 along
 with
 indications
 of
 the
 possible
 number
 of
 refugees
 intending
 to
return
 to
 those
 areas,
 and
 required
 programmatic
 interventions
 to
 help
 in
 preparing
 the
conditions
 that
 would
 support
 a
 sustainable
 voluntary
 return
 and
 reintegration.

**3.2.
 Internally
 Displaced
 Persons**

In
 its
 October
 2012
 report,
 TBC
 estimated
 that
 a
 total
 of
 about
 400,000
 individuals
 are
still
 internally
 displaced
 in
 the
 rural
 areas
 of
 36
 townships
 in
 South-‐East
 Myanmar
 in
Kayin,
 Kayah,
 South
 and
 East
 Shan
 and
 Mon
 States,
 and
 Bago
 and
 Tanintharyi
 Regions.
Of
 these,
 the
 number
 located
 in
 Kayin,
 Kayah,
 Tanintharyi
 and
 Mon
 combined
 is
estimated
 at
 230,400
 individuals
 (89,150
 or
 38.7%
 in
 Kayin;
 71,650
 or
 31.1%
 in
Tanintharyi;
 35,000
 or
 15.1%
 in
 Mon
 and
 34,600
 or
 15%
 in
 Kayah) [
 5] .


Input:
increase in cash earning opportunities is estimated at 7.5 to 7.8 percentage points compared

with 5.4 in the baseline estimation.

**6.6 Employment and wages using the GLSS**

The DHS data do not provide detailed information regarding how much an individual earns for

work, or her wage rate, but the GLSS does collect such data. First, we try to replicate the results

estimated with the DHS data. Panel A of table 11 indicates that agriculture becomes less

important in mining communities for women (statistically insignificant), who mainly shift into

services and sales (statistically insignificant, except for strategy 2). Men are more likely to work

as miners (statistically significant across all strategies).

29

the GLSS

DHS data


Input:
THE ROLE OF HOUSING SUPPORT AND EMPLOYMENT FACILITATION IN ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY OF REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE

**SHARE OF YOUNG UKRAINIANS (AGED 15 TO 24) WHO ARE NOT ENGAGED IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION, OR TRAINING**

**(NEET) BY COUNTRY, %** **[1,2,3]**

Host country Refugees, excluding online education Refugees Bulgaria Czechia Hungary Moldova Poland Romania Slovakia Region

1. Data reported by the national statistics service was used as a
reference for Moldova 2. With the exception of Poland and the Czech Republic, the reliability of data by country is hindered by a relatively low number of observations

[3. Host country data is based on indicators reported by the OECD for](https://data.oecd.org/youthinac/youth-not-in-employment-education-or-training-neet.htm)
[2022](https://data.oecd.org/youthinac/youth-not-in-employment-education-or-training-neet.htm)

**UKRAINE REFUGEE YOUTH ACTIVITY BY AGE**

**The gender divide: female – led households are**

**more economically vulnerable than their male –**

**led counterparts**
The share of households that are composed of female only adults with or without children constitute 65% of the total sample across the region. Compared to households with male only adults, the vast majority of which are without children, they are 51% more likely to find themselves below the poverty line.

**DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLDS BY GENDER OF**

**ADULTS, %**

NEET 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

indicators reported by the OECD


Input:
# **BRIEF** **BRAZIL**

### Operational Context & Analysis

Brazil has in place a progressive and inclusive protection and solutions framework for refugees
and other forcibly displaced individuals, ensuring equal access to rights and services alongside its
national citizens. With an open-border policy, Brazil guarantees the admission, registration, and
documentation of those in need of international protection. Brazil hosts the largest number of
Venezuelans recognized as refugees in Latin America and the Caribbean.

As of July 2024, Brazil has recognized 144.463 refugees and provided alternative protection
pathways to 572.877 persons in need of international protection, the majority of whom are
Venezuelan (474.217) and Haitian (89.455) nationals. Additionally, there are 75,998 pending
asylum applications, primarily from individuals originating from Cuba (26.225), Venezuela (15.065)
and Angola (8.696).


Input:
host country weighted average [17] . Excluding such online schooling increases this indicator to 18%. The highest NEET rate by country was reported in Moldova at 26%, which is similar to the local population, and the lowest in Poland at just 11% (3 percentage points below the national metric).
Regionally, the Ukraine refugee NEET rate tends to increase with age, as it becomes more affected by unemployment, which is high for the 15 – 24 cohort (at 17%).


Input:
19 The complete rationale for the productivity shock is outlined in the Appendix on modelling strategy, while further detailed results of econometric models are available in the Online Technical Appendix.

20 As outlined in the Appendix on modelling strategy, the total number of refugees was set at 2.6% of the total population, while their share in total employment as growing from 1.5% in 2022 to 2.4% in 2024.


Input:
HIGH EMPLOYMENT RATES, BUT LOW WAGES: A POVERTY ASSESSMENT OF UKRAINIAN REFUGEES IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES Just like last year, employment rates demonstrated disparity by age group, gender, education level, the presence of a disability, and being in need of MHPSS. Disability was found to be associated with the largest drop in employment, with this factor halving the probability of working in 2024 when compared to the sample overall. Having MHPSS needs and being female were also associated with a lower employment likelihood, although to significantly smaller degrees.

Compared to the host population, the refugee sample demonstrated higher employment rates at lower age brackets (15-19 and 20-24), which, considering the findings on poverty, can be interpreted as a coping strategy associated with low income. Higher age brackets (55-59 and 60-64) saw the highest gap in the employment rate compared to hosts, supporting the hypothesis that older age individuals have more difficulty integrating into the local labor market.

**REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT RATE BY AGE AND POPULATION**

Refugees (2023) Refugees (2024) Hosts (2023) 82% 79% 80% 52% 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 Source: Survey data, ILO

**REGIONAL REFUGEE EMPLOYMENT RATE BY POPULATION**

**GROUP (2024)**

**EMPLOYMENT RATE BY EDUCATION LEVEL**

survey data


Input:
the bottom 40 percent in four groups: far away, before mine or during mine, and close to mine,

before mine or during mine. The summary statistics for selected main outcomes are presented

in table 10. As the table shows, the bottom 40 percent in mining communities are more likely

engaging in agriculture than the bottom 40 percent elsewhere. This could illustrate that

agricultural workers are overrepresented among the less well-off in mining communities.

However, women in this group still more often work in services than women did before in the

same communities.


Input:
The choice of district – rather than cluster – fixed effect is informed by the understanding that

meaningful time-invariant factors - such as mining laws, level of development, local political

institutions, norms regarding environment, women’s participation in the labor market, etc. - that

influence exploitation of the mine happens at the district level. Including district fixed effects,

we control for various institutional and cultural factors at the district level that are stable over

time. Including district fixed effects also ensures that we are not only capturing effects from

transfers or the fiscal system as we compare individuals within the same districts. With this

method we capture the geographic spillover effects in the vicinity of the mine. Moreover, cluster

fixed effects are not possible because of clusters are not repeatedly sampled over time.

However, since the estimation is at individual level, all standard errors are clustered at the DHS

cluster level.

The sample is restricted to individuals living within 100 km of a deposit location ( _mine_ ), so

many parts of Northern Ghana where there are few gold mines are not included in the analysis.

The sample restriction is created by using the time-stable continuous distance measure that we


Input:
Due
 to
 the
 size
 and
 remoteness
 of
 the
 operational
 area,
 compounded
 by
 access
limitation
 and
 sensitivities,
 reliable
 and
 disaggregated
 information
 on
 the
 profile
 and
needs
 of
 displaced
 populations
 remains
 scarce.
 UNHCR
 has
 recently
 strengthened
 its
information
 management
 capacities
 with
 a
 view
 to
 working
 towards
 obtaining
 a
 more
systematic
 understanding
 of
 the
 locations
 and
 characteristics
 of
 populations
 of
 concern,
and
 the
 protection
 risks
 affecting
 them.
 Additionally,
 the
 Joint
 IDP
 Profiling
 Service
(JIPS),
 has
 recently
 completed
 a
 scoping
 mission
 aiming
 at
 assessing
 whether
 it
 is
feasible
 and
 desirable
 to
 conduct
 an
 IDP
 profiling
 that
 would
 inform
 the
 design
 of
 an
effective
 strategy
 for
 support
 to
 IDPs
 durable
 solutions,
 as
 well
 as
 targeting,
 improved
advocacy
 and
 fundraising.

**4.** **UNHCR’S
 CURRENT
 OPERATIONS
 IN
 THE
 SOUTH-‐EAST**


Input:
**Persons of concern in Southern Africa, Data as of 30 September 2022**

Notes: *'Other' in the location refers to any known location other than camp or settlement sites, covering both urban and rural areas; **self-settled refers to the individuals without available information such as their names and locations, and their locations are categorised to be 'unknown'; those by location in Congo, Democratic Republic of
the Congo and Zimbabwe could be different from the numbers operation report due to inconsistency in proGres v4.


Input:
contrast, show the univariate regression coefficients using OLS, highlighting the difference

between the population living close (e.g. Column 2) and far away (e.g. Column 1) before

mining.

In the pre-period, women in communities that are close to mines are less urban, poorer, have

more children and are less likely migrants. In contrast, women are of similar age, have similar

education and occupation (but slightly more likely earning cash). Note that these are raw mean

values not controlling for any regional and individual differences. Overall, these differences are

in line with previous research finding that large-scale mines tend to open in more rural and less

developed communities (Benshaul-Tolonen, 2018; Kotsadam and Tolonen, 2016).

In active mining communities, women are still less likely to live in urban areas (although the

gap between mining and non-mining areas may be smaller) than in non-mining communities,

but more likely to have some education. The difference-in-difference estimation strategy

assumes similar trends over time across the treatment (close to mines) and control group (far

away from mines), in absence of the gold mining expansion. While this assumption cannot be

tested using our dataset, previous analyses have found evidence for parallel pre-trends in infant


Input:
CROSS BORDER MOVEMENTS KEY FIGURES

200 61 118 21

REGIONAL BUREAU FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA

**PERSONS OF CONCERN INVOLVED IN CROSS BORDER MOVEMENTS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA**

As of 30 September 2022

MAP OF THE CROSS BORDER MOVEMENTS WHERE THE FLOW INVOLVED 3 POCs AND MORE *

**Inward movements**

**into the region**

**Total cross**

**border**

**movements**

**Intra region**

**movemens**

**Outward**

**movements from the**

**region**

Inward

31%

Outward
movements

34%

Before 2019 2019 2020 2021 2022

exclusion.


Input:
table 7). Low weight-for-age is an indicator for acute malnutrition, whereas height-for-age is

an indicator for chronic malnutrition. This could indicate that mining districts are less food

secure. [12] Table 7 shows that there are no effects on illness in the last two weeks.

**6. Distributional effects, mechanisms and robustness**

**6.1 Decomposing results by migration status**

We argue that one source of heterogeneity is to consider when exploring socio-economic

impacts and distributional effects of large-scale mining is migration status. First because mining

may cause inward migration of individuals that are different from the previous local population.

While it has its limitations, disaggregating the effects between nonmigrants and migrants may

shed some light on the effect on the initial population. Second, to understand the distributional

effects of mining we argue that migration status may be an important factor.

In the analysis, we distinguish between nonmigrants (where the woman respondent report being

born in the locality) and migrants (born elsewhere). We note several caveats with this analysis,

the first being that we cannot follow migrant households before the migration decision.

Therefore, we cannot make any causal claims on changes in this group over time. We compare

---
[12] In table 5 we saw very small insignificant changes in nutritional status.


Input:
3 As of December 2023, according to UNHCR, based on governmental sources [Situation Ukraine Refugee Situation (unhcr.org)](https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine) 4 According to the active PESEL UKR database.
5 According to the active PESEL UKR database in October 2023.
6 Deloitte calculations based on Multi-Sector Needs Assessment Poland 2023 survey data provided by UNHCR.

06

active PESEL UKR database

Multi-Sector Needs Assessment Poland 2023 survey data


Input:
1. A household classified as above or below the poverty line if household members are individually located above or below the poverty line

2. Income shares represent the average for each group 11 Defined in the survey as working for an employer full- or part-time on a regular basis, opposed to temporary work or selfemployment 12 Here defined as the share of individuals aged 15+ who are either employed or unemployed. Unemployed is understood as having searched for work over the past 30 days and willing to start if an opportunity presents itself over the next 2 weeks 13 Ratio of people younger than 15 and older than 64 to the 15-64 cohort 14 The share of individuals aged 15+ that are either employed or unemployed (have looked for work over the past 30 days and are willing to start if an opportunity presents itself over the next 2 weeks)


Input:
However,
 two
 serious
 internal
 conflicts
 still
 remain.
 Following
 two
 waves
 of
 inter-‐
communal
 violence
 in
 the
 western
 state
 of
 Rakhine
 in
 2012,
 over
 150
 persons
 were
killed
 and
 over
 115,000
 people
 were
 displaced.
 In
 the
 northern
 states
 of
 Kachin
 and
Shan,
 the
 conflict
 with
 the
 Kachin
 Independence
 Army
 continues;
 fighting
 flared
 up
 in
June
 2011
 breaking
 a
 cease-‐fire
 that
 held
 for
 17
 years.
 Despite
 repeated
 attempts
 to
negotiate
 a
 new
 cease-‐fire
 agreement,
 no
 peace
 solution
 has
 been
 reached
 between
 the
parties
 and
 the
 fighting
 has
 so
 far
 resulted
 in
 the
 displacement
 of
 an
 estimated
 of
 about
85,000
 persons
 scattered
 in
 more
 than
 194
 locations.

Although
 the
 cease-‐fire
 agreements
 have
 not
 led
 yet
 to
 durable
 peace
 accords,
 the
situation
 in
 the
 South-‐East,
 where
 the
 number
 of
 Internally
 Displaced
 People
 (IDPs)
 in
UNHCR’s
 area
 of
 operation [1] is
 estimated
 to
 be
 about
 230,400
 people,
 has
 started
 seeing
changing
 dynamics.
 From
 the
 moment
 when
 the
 new
 civilian
 Government
 started
 to

---
[1] UNHCR’s
 area
 of
 operation
 in
 the
 South-‐East
 currently
 consists
 of
 Kayin,
 Kayah,
 and
 Mon
 States,
 and


Input:
During the covered period, a National Development Plan spanning 2022-2026 has been prepared, to
supplant the National Development Plan document (2019-2021) which has lapsed, but it has not been
adopted. The updated plan maintains provisions for establishing consensual mechanisms for the peaceful
resolution of conflicts. This involves reinforcing the legal framework to foster trust between communities and
security forces, facilitating socio-security dialogue, promoting peaceful coexistence and fostering respect
for differences.

2 R E F U G E E P O L I C Y R E V I E W F R A M E W O R K > **R E P U B L I C O F C H A D**


Input:
Deloitte D.Climate, [32 33] is a general equilibrium model that uses consumer and producer optimisation to calculate changes in the economy in response to shocks. This enables the impact of shocks to be assessed by considering supply and demand channels as well as connections between different sectors of the economy. It provides information on the total impact of shocks on various aspects of the economy, including the labour market, government revenue, as well as key economic aggregates. It is the most appropriate tool for accounting for the multi-layered impact of Ukrainian refugees. A counterfactual analysis was performed using the latest data on the Polish economy to account for the effects of other shocks in the economy. The model enabled a counterfactual analysis to be conducted by isolating the refugee influx from all other economic shocks, e.g. the other macroeconomic consequences of the war in Ukraine. The results were calculated for 2022, 2023 and 2024 with an additional long-term analysis up to 2030 to assess the economy’s long-term adaptation (assuming no new shocks, including no countershocks [34] ).

32 Economics of climate change | Deloitte Australia

**Chart 32. Average weekly hours in main job**

Women in 15-64 age group 68.4% 2023-Q2

---
[34] E.g. refugees keep having lower productivity rather than adapt to level of natives.

latest data on the Polish economy


Input:
During the 2022-2023 school year, a total of 105,295 refugee children were enrolled in schools. This number
includes 7,520 in pre-primary, 75,205 in primary, 24,999 in secondary, and 571 in higher education and
vocational training. The gross enrolment rates for refugees were as follows: 71 per cent in primary, 28 per
cent in secondary, and less than 1 per cent in tertiary education. Refugee enrolment rates at the primary and
tertiary levels remain below those of national students (71 per cent and 1 per cent compared to 91 percent
and 3 per cent respectively), while they are higher than those of national students at the secondary level (28
percent compared to 22 per cent).

Chad continues to have a government-led system to support the integration of refugee children coming
from a different education system (Nigerian and Sudanese refugees) but funded by UNHCR. Local education
authorities organize placement tests and catch-up classes before integrating refugee children into the most
appropriate Chadian school year according to their level, age and other criteria. With new arrivals from
Sudan since April 2023, Sudanese refugee children have been integrated into the existing programme with
ongoing recruitment of new teachers in the main refugee hosting areas.


Input:
**Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland**

**Economists have advanced an array of factors that could be causing these macro-level effects. While macro-level**

**regressions show a positive impact of immigration on productivity, they cannot show the exact channels through which**

**these effects come about. It is thus uncertain which are dominant. Among them are:**

# Conclusions

**Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland**


Input:
[8] F. N. P. Nimoh, T. P. Beltramo, J. R. Fix, F. K. Appler, U. J. Pape, and L. A. Rios Rivera, ‘Understanding the Socioeconomic Conditions of
the Stateless Shona Community in Kenya: Results from the 2019 Socioeconomic Survey’, Dec. 2020. Accessed: Apr. 02, 2024. [Online].
Available: https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documentsreports/documentdetail/356511608745182603/Understanding-the-Socioeconomic-Conditions-of-the-Stateless-Shona-Community-inKenya-Results-from-the-2019-Socioeconomic-Survey

[9] U. J. Pape _et al._, ‘How COVID-19 Continues to Affect Lives of Refugees in Kenya : Rapid Response Phone Survey - Rounds 1 to 5’, World
Bank Group, Washington, D.C., Policy Note 166098, Oct. 2021. Accessed: Oct. 10, 2024. [Online]. Available:
https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/202201637042522937/pdf/How-COVID-19-Continues-to-Affect-Lives-of-Refugeesin-Kenya-Rapid-Response-Phone-Survey-Rounds-1-to-5.pdf

[10] Kenya National Bureau of Statistics and ICF, ‘Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2022. Key Indicators Report’, KNBS and ICF,

Nairobi, Kenya, and Rockville, Maryland, USA, 2023. Accessed: Oct. 10, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.knbs.or.ke/wpcontent/uploads/2023/08/Kenya-Demographic-and-Health-Survey-2022-Key-Indicators-Report.pdf

2019 Socioeconomic Survey

Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2022

Rapid Response Phone Survey


Input:
NAVIGATING HEALTH AND WELL-BEING CHALLENGES FOR REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE

### **Outcomes of** **Mental Health and** **Psychosocial** **Support**

Among those who accessed MHPSS, 33% answered “yes” when asked whether they experienced improvement, while 55% reported a “slight” improvement, resulting in a combined positive response rate of 88%.

**% OF INDIVIDUALS WHO RECEIVED MENTAL HEALTH**

**AND PSYCHOSOCIAL SUPPORT SERVICES AND REPORT**

**IMPROVEMENT IN WELL-BEING BY COUNTRY**

Yes Slight No/No, worsening across gender, with older adults aged 60+ reporting the highest improvement rates (93% for women and 94% for men).

**% OF INDIVIDUALS WHO RECEIVED MENTAL HEALTH**

**AND PSYCHOSOCIAL SUPPORT SERVICES AND REPORT**

**IMPROVEMENT IN WELL-BEING BY AGE AND GENDER**

Female Male Regional Bulgaria Czechia Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Moldova Poland Romania Slovakia (N=1,662) 33% 35% 46% 41% 26% 41% 38% 29% 30% 28% 48% 55% 54% 48% 51% 67% 44% 44% 62% 57% 56% 49%


Input:
**higher productivity.** In a simplistic
supply-demand framework, the influx of Ukrainian refugees should have caused some Polish workers to become unemployed or leave the labour force, or real wages to fall. This has not happened.
First, among Polish citizens employment rates have grown, and unemployment rates have fallen. Second, poviats in which employment share of Ukrainian refugees has grown by 1 pp., saw 0.5 pp. higher employment rates among Polish citizens, and 0.3 pp. lower unemployment rates.

Third, there is no evidence of lowered wages, in fact the limited available data suggests that Ukrainian refugees may have caused higher wage growth in poviats which they have moved to. These are common findings well documented in academic literature, that as immigrants enter the labour market, native workers specialize in complementary, higher value tasks, which we see empirically in Polish workers moving to more attractive occupational groups. This can be seen in the data, as Polish citizens are moving to better paid occupations. It constitutes a positive shock to productivity which is what counterbalances labour market pressures. [17] Source: Deloitte D.Climate estimates. For details see the Online Technical Appendix.

**The main impact of Ukrainian refugees**

**is expanding the economy and putting**


Input:
NAVIGATING HEALTH AND WELL-BEING CHALLENGES FOR REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE negative perceptions of Ukrainian refugees in some host communities including perceived overuse of health services and preferential treatment [6] . As the refugees stay longer, sustainable solutions to meeting health needs of refugees and host communities, including sustainable financing, refugee data integration, integration of the refugee health workforce, and enhanced service delivery including mental health services, are critical.

Through regional multi-agency collaboration, multisector needs assessments have been conducted in refugee-receiving countries since 2022 to collect information on the needs of refugees, including those related to health, nutrition and mental health and psychosocial support. These assessments support partners’ understanding of the level of access to essential services among refugees and outcomes enable governments and partners to identify priorities for the response. In 2024, a social-economic lens was added in assessing the needs of refugees in the SocioEconomic Insights Study (SEIS) conducted in ten countries (Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Republic of Moldova, Romania, and Slovakia).

# Methodology

SocioEconomic Insights Study (SEIS)


Input:
_Source: Authors’ calculation of 2024 survey data._

**Livelihood opportunities for the Shona community have improved significantly since gaining citizenship,**

**particularly in terms of financial access and job prospects – as well as protection outcomes, such as reduction in**

**harassment by law enforcement.** According to the survey data, over half of the Shona community reported that

citizenship has enhanced their access to banking and mobile wallet services, making it easier for them to save,

invest, and manage their finances. Increased job opportunities were cited by 47 percent of respondents, reflecting

how the ability to present formal identification has opened new avenues for employment and economic

participation. Importantly, 46 percent of the Shona noted a reduction in harassment by law enforcement, which

had previously hindered their movement and limited their economic activities. This improvement has enabled more

individuals to seek employment and conduct business without fear of arbitrary detentions or fines.

_Figure 6: Impacts on receiving citizenship on livelihood opportunities_

_Source: Authors’ calculation of 2024 survey data._

**[www.unhcr.org](http://www.unhcr.org/)** 8


Input:
Additionally, 22 private companies pledged to hire 1,200 refugees and to support 15,000 refugees
with trainings and job placement by 2027. Currently, Brazil formally employs around 200,000
refugees and people in need of international protection. Of these, more than 12 thousand are
employed by 55 companies and organizations that are part of the Companies with Refugees
Forum, an initiative started in 2021 by UNHCR and the UN Global Compact – Brazil Chapter. The

UNHCR / October, 2024 9


Input:
HIGH EMPLOYMENT RATES, BUT LOW WAGES: A POVERTY ASSESSMENT OF UKRAINIAN REFUGEES IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES

# **Background**

Over three years have elapsed since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, an event which has led to the largest displacement crisis in Europe since World War II. As of the end of 2024, 6.3 million refugees from
[Ukraine were recorded across Europe, close to 2 million of whom are located in ten Regional Refugee](https://www.unhcr.org/europe/publications/regional-refugee-response-plan-2025-2026)
[Response Plan](https://www.unhcr.org/europe/publications/regional-refugee-response-plan-2025-2026) countries: Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Republic of Moldova, Romania, and Slovakia. This report aims to assess the livelihood situation of this population based on the 2024 round of data collected by the Socio-Economic Insights Survey (SEIS), which received responses from 8,723 households containing 19,803 individuals. Figures for 2023 are derived from a similar exercise [7] conducted in 2023.

# **Key findings**

**Refugee poverty rates remain high, albeit improved from 2023**

Socio-Economic Insights Survey


Input:
pollution from mining and agricultural productivity. The results point toward decreasing

agricultural productivity because of environmental pollution and soil degradation, which could

have negative welfare effects on households that do not engage in mining activities or in

indirectly stimulated sectors. Lower productivity in agriculture could potentially push

households to engage in mining-related sectors, in addition to pull factors such as higher wage

earnings in the stimulated sectors.

We explore the effects of mining activity on employment, earnings, expenditure, and children’s

health outcomes in local communities and in districts with gold mining. We combine the DHS

and GLSS with production data for 17 large-scale gold mines in Ghana. We find that a new

large-scale gold mine changes economic outcomes, such as access to employment and cash

earnings. In addition, it raises local wages and expenditure on housing and energy.

An important welfare indicator in developing countries is infant mortality, and we note a large

and significant decrease in mortality rates among young children, at both the local and district

levels. [1] We hypothesize that increased access to prenatal care is one of the mechanisms behind

the increased survival rate.

---
[1] In the 2010 Ghana population census average district size is 112,000

GLSS

2010 Ghana population census

DHS


Input:
activities, either by increasing or decreasing activity in the close geographic area, we will end

up estimating the impact of these sectors jointly. In a later stage, should the opportunity arise,

we encourage researchers to try to disentangle the effects of small-scale and large-scale mining.

**3 Data**

To conduct this analysis, we combine different data sources using spatial analysis. The main

mining data is a dataset from InterraRMG covering all large-scale mines in Ghana, explained

in more detail in section 3.1. This dataset is linked to survey data from the DHS and GLSS,

using spatial information. Geographical coordinates of enumeration areas in GLSS are from

Ghana Statistical Services (GSS). [2] Point coordinates (global positioning system [GPS]) for the

surveyed DHS clusters [3] allow us to match all individuals to one or several mineral mines. We

do this in two ways.

First, we calculate distance spans from an exact mine location given by its GPS coordinates,

and match surveyed individuals to mines. These are concentric circles with radiuses of 10, 20,

and 30 kilometers (km), and so on, up to 100 km and beyond. In the baseline analysis where

---
[2] The data was shared by Aragón and Rud (2013)
[3] Both the DHS and GLSS enumeration area coordinates have a 1-5 km offset. The DHS clusters have up to

survey data from the DHS and GLSS

dataset from InterraRMG


Input:
The new asylum legislation provides a robust legal framework for guaranteeing access to justice for
refugees and asylum-seekers. This includes outlining specific provisions regarding legal assistance and
judicial assistance to permit access to justice, legal representation and enforcement of ruling. It is important
[to consider this framework in conjunction with Law 021-PR-2019 on legal aid and judicial assistance, which](https://www.refworld.org/docid/609f00834.html)
was enacted in 2019, though not fully operational in absence of an implementing decree. Article 27 of the
[2020 Asylum Law](https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2091861/645b938a4.pdf) recognizes the refugee right to access Chadian Courts. The same provision also provides
for treatment regarding access to judicial assistance on par with nationals and exempts refugees from
providing a financial deposit to Courts (caution judicatum solvi) applicable to ordinary foreigners.

[Article 65 of the 2023 Decree](https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2091861/645b938a4.pdf) further outlines that refugees and asylum-seekers enjoy access to Court on par
with nationals. Additionally, the 2023 Decree outlines the rights of asylum-seekers and refugees to access judicial
assistance and legal assistance in the conditions outlined by the law. A specific legal provision of the 2023
Decree also details the different modalities composing legal aid accessible to refugees and asylum-seekers


Input:
_UNHCR
 Discussion
 Paper
 –15
 June
 2013_

5. Returning
 refugees
 and
 IDPs
 and
 receiving/hosting
 communities
 have

opportunities
 to
 (re-‐)establish
 meaningful
 and
 productive
 lives,
 through
 access
to
 livelihoods
 opportunities.
6. IDPs
 and
 returned
 refugee,
 together
 with
 the
 communities
 receiving
 or
 hosting

them
 enjoy
 key
 socio-‐economic
 rights,
 including
 access
 to
 shelter,
 education
 and
health
 and
 other
 services
 and
 infrastructure.

**9.** **KEY
 ASSUMPTIONS
 AND
 RISKS**

With
 the
 understanding
 that
 a
 more
 in-‐depth
 analysis
 is
 needed,
 the
 following
 is
 a
 list
 of
key
 assumptions
 and
 risks
 that
 need
 to
 be
 taken
 into
 consideration
 prior
 to
 planning
durable
 solutions
 programming
 in
 the
 South-‐East:

- The
 peace
 process
 remains
 one
 of
 the
 Government’s
 main
 priorities
 including
adequately
 addressing
 the
 current
 situations
 in
 Kachin
 and
 Rakhine.
 Much
 will
also
 depend
 on
 the
 agreements
 that
 are
 reached
 with
 the
 different
 armed
 groups
and
 the
 level
 of
 political,
 economic
 and
 cultural
 autonomy
 they
 could
 retain.
 Any
on-‐going
 armed
 clashes
 and/or
 protection
 incidents
 could
 derail
 progress
 made
so
 far.


Input:
The
 proposed
 five
 phases
 reflect
 different
 stages
 in
 IDP
 operations,
 and
 in
 the
 refugee
repatriation
 and
 reintegration
 process,
 with
 each
 corresponding
 to
 incrementally
increasing
 resource
 requirements
 for
 UNHCR
 and
 its
 operational
 partners.

- Phase
 1: Strengthening
 of
 IDP
 operations
 and
 preparation
 for
 refugee
 return
while
 providing
 integrated
 assistance
 to
 spontaneous
 returnees;

- Phase
 2: Expansion
 of
 integrated
 support
 to
 spontaneous
 returnees
 and
 their
communities
 while
 enhancing
 preparedness;

- Phase
 3: Refugee
 repatriation
 and
 initial
 reintegration
 operations;

- Phase
 4: Consolidation
 of
 reintegration
 operations;
 and

- Phase
 5: Reintegration
 operations
 are
 scaled
 down
 and
 phased
 out.

**8.** **OBJECTIVES**

General
 operational
 objectives
 are:

1. Refugees
 are
 empowered
 to
 make
 an
 informed
 choice
 on
 whether
 to
 return,
 and

if
 so,
 when
 and
 to
 where,
 including
 through
 the
 provision
 of
 accurate
 and
 up
 to
date
 information
 on
 the
 situation
 in
 areas
 of
 potential
 return.
2. Refugees
 and
 IDPs
 have
 the
 opportunity
 to
 determine
 which
 solution(s)
 are

most
 appropriate
 for
 them,
 and
 to
 participate
 fully
 in
 the
 assessment,
 design
 and
delivery
 of
 durable
 solutions
 programmes,
 using
 an
 age,
 gender
 and
 diversity
mainstreaming
 approach.
3. Legal
 frameworks
 are
 in
 place
 that
 guarantee
 the
 rights
 of
 IDPs
 and
 returning


Input:
UNHCR Indonesia is working to expand access to complementary pathways for refugees in the country
and provides information and guidance to refugees who may be eligible for these programs. Solutions
through complementary pathways have increased in recent years, from no individual departures on
pathways in 2020 to over 300 departures in 2023. UNHCR recognizes and amplifies the link between
access to education, skills building, and empowerment activities in Indonesia with improved access to
education and labour mobility pathways in third countries. In this way, continued success with these
pathways also serves to reinforce and enhance advocacy with Indonesian authorities on the
importance of access to opportunities while in Indonesia. Since mid-2021, UNHCR has collaborated
with Talent Beyond Boundaries (TBB) on a project that matches refugee candidates in Indonesia with
employers in Australia and Canada to offer employment and a pathway to residency through labour
mobility. In 2023, 328 individuals departed on a sponsorship pathway, eight refugees departed to a
third country on family reunification, and seven refugees departed to Canada and Australia on labour
mobility programs.

### **Solutions - Voluntary Repatriation**


Input:
Considering
 that
 decades
 of
 conflict,
 displacement
 and
 poverty
 have
 weakened
traditional
 community
 support
 and
 leadership
 structures
 will
 be
 important
 that
 the
capacities
 of
 communities,
 as
 well
 as
 local
 partners
 such
 as
 local
 NGOs,
 CBOs
 and
border-‐based
 groups
 working
 out
 of
 Thailand,
 are
 effectively
 harnessed
 in
 support
 of
durable
 solutions.

 In
 particular
 border-‐based
 organisations
 represent
 critical
 assets
that
 are
 complementary
 to
 the
 traditional
 agencies.
 The
 networks
 and
 working
relationships
 that
 Thai-‐based
 organisations,
 which
 have
 been
 working
 with
 the
 refugee
and
 IDP
 communities
 for
 about
 30
 years,
 have
 developed
 with
 displaced
 communities
will
 be
 invaluable
 in
 building
 trust
 and
 providing
 services.

The
 scope
 of
 activities
 required
 is
 likely
 to
 be
 significant
 and
 will
 require
 prioritized
attention
 and
 significant
 donor
 support.
 Early
 support
 to
 kick-‐start
 the
 reintegration
process
 that
 will
 address
 immediate
 needs
 (initial
 phases)
 should
 transition
 to
 medium
and
 longer
 term
 development
 projects
 (consolidation
 phase)
 to
 ensure
 the
 achievement
of
 sustainable
 reintegration
 and
 eventually
 lead
 to
 a
 measurable
 UNHCR
 disengagement.

12


Input:
# **HIGH EMPLOYMENT** **RATES, BUT LOW** **WAGES: A POVERTY** **ASSESSMENT OF** **UKRAINIAN REFUGEES** **IN NEIGHBORING** **COUNTRIES**

## **An inter-agency exploration of** **socio-economic data** March 2025

socio-economic data


Input:
Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

## Appendix: Modelling strategy

##### Compared to refugees in other countries, Ukrainians in Poland show high employment rates, making their economic impact more positive and comparable to immigrants in general. Most of the migration economics literature quoted in this appendix refers to all immigrants, not just refugees.

Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

#### **“Canonical model” and recent advances**


Input:
THE ROLE OF HOUSING SUPPORT AND EMPLOYMENT FACILITATION IN ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY OF REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE

### **Summary of** **findings and** **recommendations**

Overall, refugee households from Ukraine are facing a high degree of economic vulnerability, with half of them falling below the poverty line [1] based on reported income. Factoring in accommodation support (provided either via host governments, local homeowners, or other arrangements) as an indirect source of income, reduces the poverty rate to 32%, demonstrating the importance of such interventions.
The level of access to regular [2] employment is a key factor influencing the financial wellbeing of households, highlighting the significance of economic inclusion. Despite a predominantly vulnerable population profile (35% of families consist of a single adult woman with dependents, and the overall age dependency ratio [3] stands at 61%), labor force participation rates among refugees are comparable to those of host country nationals.
However, unemployment rates remain alarmingly high at 14%. Additionally, gender gaps are

---
[1] Defined as being composed of members whose equivalized income is below 50% of the national median
[2] Defined in the survey as working for an employer full- or part-time on a regular basis, as opposed to temporary work or selfemployment
[3] Defined as the ratio of people younger than 15 and older than 64 to the 15-64 cohort


Input:
Third, cross-section regression analysis shows that poviats with a higher number of Ukrainian refugees saw a greater increase in wages, which was caused by larger share of refugees in local employment.
Due to limitations in the wage dataset, our calculations incorporated yearly data.
Cross-section models were estimated using a data sample for all 380 poviats in 2023.
The share of Ukrainian refugees among all employed, temporarily employed, and self-employed persons insured at ZUS in a given poviat was averaged across quarters to construct a yearly variable. The wage variable is the GUS data series on gross monthly wages and salaries [30], and taken as nominal change in 2023 from 2022.
The ordinary least squares cross-section model shows that in 2023, a 1 percentage point increase in the employment share of Ukrainian refugees was associated with an increase in wages of PLN 66. Given that in a mean poviat gross wage growth amounted to PLN 757 and the gross wage in the previous year was PLN 5,803, wages have grown by 13.1% in nominal terms (including inflation), of which 0.7 percentage points were associated with Ukrainian refugees (considering the fact that the employment share of the Ukrainian refugees in a mean poviat was 0.61%).

---
[30] Unfortunately, GUS data for these time periods and poviat level include the enterprise sector (firms that employ 10 or more persons) and public sector, which is

wage dataset


Input:
**2. Support economic integration and empowerment of the Shona community through targeted financial inclusion**

**programs and skills development initiatives.**

The Government of Kenya, in collaboration with development partners, is encouraged to implement tailored

financial inclusion strategies to help the newly recognized Shona citizens access credit, savings, and insurance

products that are crucial for business growth and household resilience. Establishing entrepreneurship training

programs, mentorship networks, and providing access to capital for small and medium-sized enterprises would

empower the Shona community to leverage their skills in wood carving, basket weaving, and other economic

activities. Additionally, promoting employment opportunities in the formal sector for Shona individuals through job

placement services and partnerships with the private sector will ensure that the community’s transition to full

citizenship is accompanied by tangible improvements in income and welfare.

**3. Reaffirm and expand Kenya’s commitment to eradicating statelessness by adopting a comprehensive national**

**strategy.**

Building on the success of granting citizenship to the Makonde, Shona, and Pemba communities, a National Action

Plan to identify and resolve remaining cases of statelessness, including the estimated 9,800 individuals who remain

stateless, offers many benefits. This strategy should include amending the relevant Sections of the Kenya


Input:
- The
 Government
 will
 abide
 by
 international
 standards
 for
 return
 namely,
 that
people
 have
 a
 right
 to
 return
 voluntarily
 to
 places
 of
 choice,
 based
 on
 their
individual
 and
 freely-‐expressed
 wish
 to
 return,
 and
 that
 return
 and
reintegration
 is
 carried
 out
 in
 conditions
 of
 physical,
 legal
 and
 material
 safety
and
 dignity.

- The
 Government
 and
 non-‐state
 armed
 groups
 engage
 in
 addressing
 the
 problem
of
 landmines
 as
 an
 early
 priority.
 Landmines
 are
 a
 particular
 threat
 in
 the
 South-‐
East
 and
 a
 serious
 impediment
 to
 any
 possible
 return.

- Land
 reform,
 including
 restoration
 of
 land
 rights
 and
 compensation,
 remains
 at
the
 centre
 of
 the
 country’s
 political
 debate
 and
 reform
 agenda.
 The
 current
 laws
allow
 expropriation
 of
 land
 not
 utilised
 for
 a
 specific
 period
 of
 time.
 In
 addition,
abandonment,
 widespread
 destruction
 and
 “land
 grabbing”
 may
 mean
 that
 some
villages
 of
 origin
 may
 not
 exist
 anymore,
 or
 may
 not
 be
 accessible.

- Humanitarian
 and
 development
 actors
 are
 granted
 full
 access
 to
 return
 areas,
particularly
 allowing
 the
 opening
 of
 offices
 and
 regular
 monitoring
 capacity.
Direct
 access
 to
 key
 areas
 of
 origin
 is
 still
 limited
 for
 many
 humanitarian
 and
development
 actors
 in
 particular
 in
 conflict-‐affected
 areas.


Input:
5. Cross Sectors

### **5. Cross Sectors**

**5.1** **Gender**

Gender considerations can generally be enhanced in many sub-dimensions of overall policies, with the
most relevant being the national institutional framework for the management and coordination of refugees.
Additionally, the limited participation of refugee women in advisory committees often results in inadequate
consideration of the concerns and needs of women and girls. This hinders their inclusion in national plans
and programs.

The most consequential policy sub-dimensions in terms of socioeconomic development remain therefore
as follows:

**a.** **Justice and Security:** Challenges remain in preventing and responding to gender-based violence.

**b.** **Land, Housing, and Property:** Refugees in general still face difficulties in accessing and owning land.

**c.** **Education:** Limited access to education for refugee girls, particularly due to high dropout rates. In

the 2022-2023 school year, girls’ enrolment rates were 47 per cent in primary, 17 per cent in middle
school and only 6 percent in high school nationwide. The drop in middle and high school attendance is
linked to socio-cultural pressures, leading to issues like child marriages, early marriages, child labour.

**d.** **Healthcare:** Insufficient prioritization of the specific needs of women and girls, including refugee women


Input:
The floods in 2022 had adverse effects in 18 out of the 23 provinces, including Lac, Mayo Kebbi Est, Mayo
Kebi Ouest, Logone Occidental, Logone Oriental, Tandjilé and Mandoul. These consequences resulted in
the loss of agricultural land and livestock, and heightened risks to food security. In October 2022, authorities
responded by declaring a state of emergency and offering financial assistance to affected individuals,
including refugees hosted in these rural areas, to meet their shelter and essential needs. Specific sites were
identified to temporally accommodate the displaced individuals irrespective of their status.

**1.4** **Preparedness for refugee inflows**

The National Commission for the Reception, Reintegration of Refugees and Repatriates (Commission
Nationale d’Accueil de Réinsertion des Réfugiés et des Rapatriés, CNARR) remains the national institutional
body to respond to new refugee inflows. The four-year strategy of CNARR (2019-2023), which includes
mobilization provisions in case of emergencies, continues to be applied. The CNARR continues to work
with UNHCR and other United Nations organizations to support and guide its response to refugee inflows,
particularly in cases of emergency.


Input:
_Note:_ In panel A, active is status of mine in birth year; in panel B, active is active status of mine in survey year.
Robust standard errors clustered at the DHS cluster level in parentheses. All regressions control for year and district
fixed effects, urban dummy, age, and years of education. *** p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1. OLS = ordinary least
squares.

An active mine is associated with a decrease in cough among children under age five (panel B

of table 5), and children are also (insignificantly) more likely to have a health card. An active

mine is associated with insignificant decreases in the anthropometrics measures (World Health

Organization measures in standard deviations), such as height-for-age and weight-for-age.

However, the standard errors for these coefficients are very large relative to the estimated

coefficients, which is why the effects are imprecisely estimated.

**5.3 Spatial heterogeneity of results**

Thus far we have used a cutoff distance of 20 km. Panel A of figure 4 shows that the largest

treatment effect for services for women is found within 10 km of a mine, with an 8 percentage

point increase in the probability that a woman works in the service sector. This is equivalent to


Input:
**productive native women to increase their labour supply.**
A caveat in the case of refugees from Ukraine is that this could mean working below their qualifications or in the informal sector, making the overall effect for productivity unclear.
Nevertheless, as availability of care and housework services increases, it becomes easier for women mainly to combine family and professional lives and increase labour supply.
Such effects may be stronger for countries with less accessible childcare. Furtado (2015) reviews this literature, finding evidence from Australia, Hong Kong, Italy, Singapore, Spain, Switzerland, Spain, United Kingdom, and the United States.
Additionally, Furtado (2016) in the USA in the 1980-2000 period finds that married women and women with graduate degrees increase their fertility in response to low-skilled immigration.
Results are causal, as the author exploits the role of ethnic network in immigrant location decisions.

40 41

**Firms respond to immigrant inflows by introducing**

**production technologies complementary to their skills, thus**

**making their skill-group and potentially firms themselves**


Input:
Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland Vocational or lower Secondary Higher Data is limited, but it appears refugees found work in sectors where the labour market was particularly tight. Publicly available data does not give the numbers of social security registrations of native workers by NACE sector. For this reason, in the absence of administrative data, to approximate the share of Ukrainian workers in particular sectors it was necessary to use Statistics Poland survey data. The share of workers with Ukrainian citizenship grew more in sectors that were experiencing the highest wage and salaries growth before refugee displacement. This eased their entry into the labour market.
The refugees were also quick to set-up their own businesses or become self-employed.
Accommodation and food, as a sector, has been experiencing a particularly large growth in wages and salaries in 2021, as it re-opened after the Covid-19 pandemic, and subsequently it recorded a particularly large growth in the share of Ukrainian workers. Transportation has been the only sector in which the share and number of Ukrainian workers declined.

Statistics Poland survey


Input:
Second, panel regression analysis shows that a larger influx of Ukrainian refugees at the poviat level was accompanied by a larger increase in employment rates for Polish citizens along with a larger decrease in registered unemployment rates. The data sample for all regressions encompassed quarterly data for all 380 poviats from Q1 2022 to Q2 2024.
The Ukrainian refugee share variable was constructed as the share of Ukrainian refugees among all employed, temporarily employed, and self-employed persons insured with ZUS in a given poviat at the end of the quarter. The employment rate of Polish citizens was constructed as the share of Polish citizens who are employed, Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland

quarterly data for all 380 poviats


Input:
temporarily employed, and self-employed and who are insured with ZUS, divided by the population from GUS in a given poviat in a given quarter (estimated based on halfyear population data). The unemployment rate is the registered unemployment rate series from GUS. Fixed effects panel regressions show that an increase in the employment share of Ukrainian refugees by 1 percentage point correlates with an increase in Polish citizens' employment rates by 0.5% and a decrease in the unemployment rate by 0.3%, in the preferred specification with dummy variables for all quarters. All results are statistically significant at a 0.01 level.

**Chart 26. Polish citizens employment rate** **Chart 27. Polish citizens unemployment rate**

Eurostat survey data, 20-64 age group Eurostat survey data, 20-64 age group 3.6% 83.8% 83.6% 83.2%

**Chart 28. Effect of a 1 pp. change in employment share of Ukrainian refugees on**

Panel model of all 380 poviats quarterly data from Q1 2022 to Q2 2024. Results are statistically significant at a 0.01 level.

Polish citizens employment rate Unemployment rate

1.0 1.0

0 0

-1.0 -1.0

-2.0 -2.0

No time Seasonal Quarterly No time Seasonal Quarterly dummies dummies dummies dummies dummies dummies

registered unemployment rate series from GUS

Eurostat survey data

halfyear population data

halfyear population data


Input:
Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland © UNHCR / Anna Liminowicz

# **3.** Economic impact modelling

Simple back-of-the-envelope calculations give the intuition behind how additional workers help to grow the economy.
The simplest estimate would be to assume that an increase of employment by 1.4-2.2% will grow the Gross Domestic Product by an equal percentage. In such a case, we would need to assume that labour is the only production factor, and thus all of GDP can be equally divided between workers.
However, this is not the case, as GDP is not just a function of labour, but also of capital that workers have at their disposal – all the machines, computer programs, offices, and the like. As displacement is unexpected and refugee status (both legal and intent to stay long term) at first is uncertain, companies take time to increase their stocks of capital to the new workers. A more elaborate estimate would account for the part of GDP Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland


Input:
**Economic impact modelling**
Economic impact of Ukrainian refugees has been estimated in the general equilibrium Deloitte D.Climate model that accounts for their labour, consumption, and tax inputs.
Such models are a gold standard in policy modelling used by central banks, academia, and other institutions, because they can simulate counterfactual scenarios.
Thus, we can distinguish the positive labour market shock from the inflow of refugees and analyse various scenarios independently of all other recent macroeconomic developments (Chapter 3).

We find that refugees from Ukraine as workers, entrepreneurs, consumers, and taxpayers had a positive impact on economic output, which will increase in the long run. The Deloitte D.Climate general equilibrium model finds that refugees from Ukraine in the long-term will contribute 0.9-1.35% to the Gross Domestic Product.
In our model, the long-term is defined as the period over which the economy fully adjusts to the shock of the initial refugee inflow; it does not include other aspects, e.g. refugee children growing-up and entering labour market. These results are 08 09


Input:
**downgrading.** With the median wages
of Ukrainian refugees estimated at 84% (SEIS survey) or 80% (NBP 2024 survey) of the national median (see chapter 2), the difference for average wages may be even larger. This is because medians are insensitive to high earners who typically inflate average earnings. Such high earners may suffer significant downgrading considering the unfavourable occupational structure of Ukrainian refugees. There are many reasons to this, from occupational licensing to a high level of language fluency required by high-skill jobs. [28] Ukrainian Pre-war Other Polish refugees Ukrainians foreigners citizens Drivers (truck, bus) Teachers Medical professions (physician, dentist, nurse, midwife) Legal professions (legal counsel, barrister, notary, bailiff) Taxi drivers Others Source: Deloitte own elaboration based on ZUS data on June 30th 2024.

26 As described in chapter 2, SEIS measures incomes on the household level. Using it to estimate individual wages likely underrepresents lowest and highest incomes.
Details are available in the Online Technical Appendix.

27 Note that the GUS (2024) data for the host population is not exactly comparable, as it does not include microenterprises, it covers an earlier period and focuses on gross and average wages.

28

---
[28] Lessem and Sanders (2020) modelled immigrant wage growth in the United States, finding that in a counterfactual model eliminating barriers to occupational entry

SEIS survey

GUS (2024) data

NBP 2024 survey

ZUS data