README.md

---
license: cc-by-sa-4.0
language:
- en
pretty_name: SkyBlock Patch → Price Events
size_categories:
- 1K<n<10K
tags:
- event-study
- game-economy
- hypixel-skyblock
- llm-extraction
task_categories:
- tabular-regression
- tabular-classification
configs:
- config_name: default
  data_files:
  - split: train
    path: patchoracle_events.parquet
---

# Dataset card — SkyBlock Patch → Price Events

**What:** one row per (patch, bazaar item) event: LLM-extracted change facts
from Hypixel SkyBlock patch notes (2019–2026) joined to market outcomes
(raw and market-adjusted % price moves at D+1/D+3/D+7).

**Why it exists:** no labeled dataset connects game patch text to in-game
market reactions. Prior public work predicts next-tick prices from price
history alone (autocorrelation-trivial). This dataset supports event-driven
prediction: *given what a patch says, what happens to the affected items?*

---

## ⚠️ v3 correction notice (2026-08-03) — read before using v2 numbers

**v3 replaces v2. If you pulled v2, re-pull.** v2's row counts were wrong and its
central caveat was unquantified. Both are fixed here, and several claims the
project made *about* this data have since been retracted by the project itself.

| | v2 (published 2026-08-01) | **v3 (this release)** |
|---|---|---|
| events | 2,599 | **2,078** |
| usable labels (`excluded = false`) | 1,403 | **1,087** |
| `name-match-seed` rows | 1,090 | **569** (405 usable) |
| rows with a NULL `excerpt` | 1,094 | **0** |
| seed false-positive risk | prose warning only | **measured, per-row column** |

The v2 counts predate the G12 matcher fix. v2's `name-match-seed` rows contained
fabricated attributions the card only warned about in the abstract — most
notoriously a `Y` event mined from the phrase **"Howdy y'all!"**. Those are gone
(see *`name_match_risk`* below), every row now carries the `excerpt` it came from,
and the residual risk is a column you can filter on rather than a paragraph you
have to trust.

**Retractions affecting claims made *about* this dataset.** The data is sound; the
trading claims built on it were not. Stated plainly because earlier releases of
this project asserted otherwise:

- **The trading-cost assumption was ~20× too optimistic.** Published net figures
  assumed a 1.0% bid-ask spread proxy. The measured median bazaar spread is
  **19.5%** row-level / **23.4%** per item. Treat any net-return figure from
  earlier releases as gross.
- **No execution regime yields a profitable strategy.** Priced on real bid/ask:
  crossing the book nets **−52.9%**; resting both legs earns the *spread* rather
  than the signal (return correlates r=0.57 with spread width); resting one leg
  same-side nets **−32.8%** on the fills you actually get, with **−41.3pp** of
  adverse selection. **Do not cite this dataset as supporting a profitable
  strategy.**
- **Direction is a well-powered null.** Directional accuracy is ≈0.52–0.54 against
  a 0.524 always-predict-down constant; a 96-cell, 48-hour event-time scan found
  no cell above baseline. **Magnitude reacts; direction does not.** The defensible
  predictive result is that post-patch price *range* is forecastable from an item's
  own 30-day trailing volatility at ρ ≈ 0.45–0.52 out-of-sample — and adding
  patch-note features does **not** measurably improve it.
- **A published fill-rate statistic was a tautology.** A "100% fill rate, 0.00pp
  adverse selection" figure was an algebraic identity — its threshold was a member
  of the set being minimised over — not a measurement. Retracted; the real entry
  fill rate is 52.4% with −2.77pp adverse selection.

## Size (v3)

**2,078 events** across **232 patches** and **596 bazaar items**; **1,087 rows**
carry usable outcome labels (`excluded = false`). The source corpus is **396
patches** (2019-06-11 → 2026-07-15); patches touching no bazaar-resolvable item
contribute no rows.

## Fields

| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| `patch`, `patch_date`, `source`, `forum_url` | which patch (wiki changelog title or RSS), when, provenance |
| `anchor_ts`, `anchor_precision` | resolved publish timestamp. `hour` = real forum post time (152 patches); `day` = **placeholder `00:00 UTC`, not a measured time** (244 patches) |
| `event_id` | stable row id (matches `event_id` in the project's public API) |
| `item_tag` | CoflNet/Hypixel bazaar tag (e.g. `ENCHANTED_DIAMOND`) |
| `change_type` | buff / nerf / new / removed / fix / mention (from text only) |
| `mechanism` | drop_rate / recipe / shop_price / stats / availability / other |
| `magnitude_text`, `magnitude_pct` | magnitude **as written in the patch**; parsed % when stated |
| `affects_supply`, `affects_demand` | which side of the market the text says is touched |
| `is_new_content` | item introduced by this patch (no pre-history ⇒ excluded from labels) |
| **`is_new_content_contradicted`** | **NEW in v3.** `true` when `is_new_content` is set but the item has price rows *before* its own patch date — i.e. the flag is wrong. **True for 77 of 339 (23%).** |
| `extraction_model` | which extractor produced the row — see provenance |
| `excerpt` | the sentence(s) the extraction came from. **Non-null for all 2,078 rows in v3** |
| **`name_match_risk`** | **NEW in v3.** Per-row attribution audit — see below |
| `pre_price`, `pre_vol_pct`, `pre_drift_pct`, `pre_volume` | pre-anchor market state (strictly before the patch) |
| `ret_d{1,3,7}_pct` | raw % move vs D-1 close, winsorized ±50 |
| `abn_d{1,3,7}_pct` | market-adjusted (abnormal) % move vs a volume-weighted bazaar index |
| `d7_censored` | another patch touched the item inside the D+7 window |
| `excluded`, `exclude_reason` | rows without valid labels (new items, thin history, volume floor) |

### `name_match_risk` — v2's caveat, now measured

v2 warned that seed rows "include false-positive mentions" without saying how
many. With excerpts stored, that is checkable. Two distinct classes, and **only
the second still exists**:

| value | rows (all / usable) | meaning |
|---|---|---|
| `not_applicable` | 1,509 / 682 | LLM-typed row — a model read the passage and asserted a change, so the name-matching bug never applied |
| `wholeword_ok` | 499 / 338 | seed row; item name appears as a whole word in the excerpt |
| `homonym_sense_ambiguous` | 70 / **67** | seed row whose name is a common English word, so the match may be the wrong sense |
| `substring_no_wholeword_match` | **0 / 0** | **class eliminated.** This is the G12 bug ("Howdy y'all!" → `Y`); no row exhibits it |

**The `homonym_sense_ambiguous` class is mixed, not uniformly wrong.** Verified by
hand:

- *wrong sense:* `DIAMOND` from "Wooden, Gold, and Diamond **chests**"; `ICE` from
  "**Ice Essence** Shop"; `LOG` from "You will need to be MVP+ … **Log in**"
- *correct:* `FLINT` from "Cobblestone / Stone … Gravel / **Flint**"; `WHEAT` from
  "Fixed [[**Wheat**]] growing on…"

They are **flagged, not dropped** — dropping them would discard real rows and
diverge from the project's own labels. For a conservative subset use
`name_match_risk != 'homonym_sense_ambiguous'` (**1,020** usable rows); otherwise
treat them as weak labels.

*Method note, so you can reproduce or distrust it:* the check is a whole-word
regex on the item's display name, tolerating a plural/possessive on the final
word. That tolerance is load-bearing — a first version without it flagged 63 rows
as fabricated that were merely plurals ("Iron Ingot**s**", "Bejeweled
Handle**s**", "red gift**s**"), i.e. it reported a ~6% fabrication rate that was
entirely its own bug. Code: `data_release/export.py::classify_name_match`.

## Construction & caveats

- **Patch text:** Hypixel SkyBlock Wiki `Changelog/*` pages (CC-BY-SA) via the
  MediaWiki API; live patches from the official forum RSS.
- **Prices:** CoflNet SkyApi historical bazaar series (2h/daily buckets). This
  release contains only **per-event derived aggregates**, not CoflNet's raw series
  — pull those from their API directly.
- **Extraction:** **Claude Sonnet 5** (`claude:claude-sonnet-5`), JSON-schema
  constrained facts-only prompt (no outcome-flavored fields, to avoid
  pretraining-knowledge leakage), patch text chunked at 15k chars; item names
  resolved against the 1,609-tag bazaar vocabulary.
- **Row provenance** (`extraction_model`): `claude:claude-sonnet-5` **1,350** —
  typed events; `name-match-seed` **569** — item name matched in patch text but no
  extractor typed a change for it; `ollama:qwen3` **159** — v1 events the v2 pass
  did not re-find, retained rather than deleted.
- **Timestamps are a known weak point.** 244 of 396 patches sit at
  `anchor_precision = 'day'`, anchored at `00:00 UTC` — a fiction; real patches
  publish at a median ~15:00 UTC. **Always split intraday results by
  `anchor_precision`**: pooling the two hid a genuine effect in this project's own
  analysis. ~86.7% of the missing timestamps are recoverable (the wiki stores the
  forum thread as an `{{Update Link|post=}}` template, which the scraper's
  literal-URL regex could not see) but that is **not applied in v3**.
- **Exclusions are selective, not random.** 991 of 2,078 events are excluded: 485
  thin pre-history, 339 new content, 167 below volume floor. The excluded
  new-content slice is **1.5–2.9× more dispersed** in outcome magnitude than a
  comparable non-event window, and that survives matching on liquidity. So the
  usable subset is systematically **tamer** than the full event population —
  material if you model magnitude, immaterial for direction (null anyway).
- **The market index is not a tradeable benchmark.** `abn_*` columns are adjusted
  against a volume-weighted bazaar index that compounds at ~+19,658%/yr with a
  median breadth of 21 items/day. Use `abn_*` for event-study framing and `ret_*`
  for anything resembling P&L.
- **Other noise sources** (quantified in the repo's `research/02`): market-wide
  moves (mitigated by abnormal returns), Alpha-server anticipation (patches are
  partially priced in before release), thin-book manipulation (volume floor +
  winsorization), overlapping patches (`d7_censored`).

## Extraction-quality findings (v2 re-extraction, retained)

Two pre-committed evaluations; they point in different directions and both are
disclosed.

- **Extraction quality: improved.** A blinded LLM-judge pass over a 44-patch
  stratified sample scored Sonnet 5 well above qwen3 on both axes — correctness
  4.30 vs 2.73, completeness 2.61 vs 1.36 (0–5 scale). Pairwise `change_type`
  agreement is 0.75–0.85 between independent Claude tiers vs 0.45–0.51 between
  qwen3 and any Claude tier.
- **Downstream model gate: marginal FAIL.** Retraining on v2 data moved test
  directional accuracy 0.596 → 0.573 (−2.3pt, past a pre-committed −2pt gate)
  while three other tracked metrics held or improved. **Don't cite this dataset as
  having improved downstream accuracy** — the measured claim is better
  *extraction*, not better *predictions*.
- **Class-distribution shift.** Claude labels 45% of typed events `buff` (qwen3:
  23%) and produces almost no `removed` events (1 vs 83). v1 → v2 is a real
  distribution break if you use `change_type` frequencies as features or priors.

## Companion datasets

- **`patchoracle-skyblock-mayor-cells`** — the 42 pre-registered
  (basket × horizon) cells from the mayor-election event study, with verdicts and
  permutation p-values, failures included.
- **`patchoracle-skyblock-patches`** — the 396-patch corpus metadata with resolved
  anchors, useful independently of the event labels.

## License & attribution

Labels/extractions: **CC-BY-SA 4.0** (inherits the wiki's license).
Please credit: Hypixel SkyBlock Wiki (Fandom), CoflNet SkyApi, Hypixel API.
Not affiliated with Hypixel. Built by the PatchOracle project.

## Transparency notes

- **Anchor correction:** an early pipeline version could anchor at patch-day close
  when D-1 was missing (a post-patch leak); fixed and fully relabeled. This
  release is post-fix.
- **Mega-patch gap (v1): CLOSED.** The one patch that resisted local-LLM
  extraction in v1 (`Changelog/2024/April 19`, 46k chars) extracts cleanly under
  Claude. All corpus patches processed with zero failures.
- Every negative result above is published because it was measured, not because it
  was convenient. If a claim in this card is not supported by the data, that is a
  bug — please open a discussion.