being implemented. The development of Phase III will begin in 2017 and is expected to further refine the implementation plans developed in Phase I and Phase II. Maryland’s Phase I WIP set initial limits on the amount of nutrient and sediment contribu


lized costs of each BMP estimated by King and Hagan (2011) for the period 2010–2025. The BMPs included in this estimate are bioretention, bioswale, dry detention ponds, erosion and sediment control, dry extended detention ponds, urban filtering pract


pollutant removal in BMPs (Ackerman and Stein, 2008), while several others focused on the discharge reduction for various storm sizes (Damodaram, 2010; Heitz, Khos- rowpanah, and Nelson, 2000). Ackerman and Stein (2008) found that BMP effective- ness


BMP effectiveness across different storm types. Against these uncertain- ties, we tested the range of BMPs specified in Maryland’s Phase II WIP for the Chesa- peake Bay TMDL, including green infrastructure options such as urban forest buffers, permea


 Policy Levers (L)
MDE Phase II WIP BMPs, including:
• Stormwater management–filtering practices • Stormwater management–infiltration
practices
• Urban stream restoration • Urban forest buffers
Performance Metrics (M)
Metrics
• Nitrogen delivered loa


it was necessary to adjust the thresholds stipulated in Maryland’s Phase II WIP slightly to better reflect the calibration results from the Phase 5.3.2 model. This adjustment was verified with the Chesapeake Bay Program. Differ- ences between calibra


 stormwater management (green infrastructure)
Bioretention
3,875
Bioswales
3,031
Urban forest buffers
2,860
Urban filtering practices
4,156
Retrofit stormwater management
6,429
Vegetated open channels
1,810
Wet ponds and wetlands
1,968
Urban stream r


ent scenarios.
Hydrologic Uncertainty
The effects of a changing climate on future water quality in the Patuxent River are the central uncertain drivers to be considered in this analysis. To consider potential changes in hydrology due to a changing cl


search on Climate, National Institute of Environmental Studies, Japan
National Center for Atmospheric Research, U.S.A., Community Climate System Model 3
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC 2000)
    Managing Storm Water in Maryland’s Pat


 hydrology periods. Appendix C includes analysis results for the 2055–2065 climate sequences.
Another way to represent the climate-altered hydrology projections is by fitting an extreme value distribution to the resulting runoff volumes. Figure 3.3 s


ies in Maryland: Anne Arundel, Howard, Mont- gomery, Prince George, Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary.
4 USEPA developed the ICLUS scenarios by adapting U.S. Census population and migration projections to be consistent with the storyline of IPCC’s SRES


use scenarios. These scenarios primarily affect both runoff and pollutant loads through the conversion of forest, agriculture, or other pervious land use types to new impervious ground cover. Figure 3.4 shows the increase in impervi- ous land cover a


ould reduce evapotranspiration losses by around 10 percent, which could lead to higher flows in the Chesapeake Bay (Butcher, 2013; Lockwood, 1999).
Given the potential importance of evapotranspiration in determining water flows in the Patuxent River,


itrogen due to changes in emissions
Land Use Model’s Output
• Changes in land use, sewerage, and septic systems
Climate Data
• Precipitation data
• Meteorological data
• Elevation data
• Soil data
SOURCE: Chesapeake Bay Program (2013b).
RAND RR720-3.


cipal Component Analysis (PCA) and PRIM (Dalal et al., 2013). This PCA-PRIM approach, discussed later, allowed us to identify latent components that are linear combinations of the input parameters considered in the model and that best describe the mo


rved historical hydrology and no change in population or land use. As expected, with these assumptions, the Phase II WIP exactly meets the TMDL tar- gets set for these pollutants. In the second pane, however, results are shown across all hydrology as


igure 3.7
Nitrogen Load, by Climate Model, for One Land Use Scenario, Phase II WIP (2035–2045)
4
3
2
1
0
–10 –8 –6 –4 –2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Average annual precipitation 2035–2045 (percent change from historical 1984–2005)
RAND RR720-3.7
tation (x-axis)


n futures is shown for both plans.
Figure 3.8 shows that, under current management, the new TMDL targets are almost never met across the range of uncertain futures. When the WIP is implemented, we observe a consistent reduction in pollutant loads for


nitrogen target is exceeded in nearly three-quarters of the simulated futures. Only the lower tail (lowest 25 percent of cases) falls below the target line. Results are somewhat better for phosphorus and sediment, with the sediment target met in nea


ied analytically—that could later be used to identify or test additional options designed to reduce vulnerability.
This analysis starts by looking across all uncertain inputs considered. We char- acterized the uncertainties with several different typ


et
 Uncertainty Type Hydrology inputs
Average precipitation Annual
Summer
Winter
Average temperature
Annual Summer Winter
Average annual runoff All areas
Impervious areas only
Annual maximum 24-hour runoffa
Land use inputs
Impervious 40.5
Pervious 13


hat do not meet the nitrogen TMDL (coverage) are described by those cases in which runoff from impervious areas exceeds 114,990 acre-feet. In addition, the nitrogen TMDL is not met in 95 percent of futures in which runoff from impervious areas is abo


 experiment. The figure shows a scatter- plot of all futures. Open circles show nonvulnerable cases, where the nitrogen TMDL
Table 3.10
Standardized Loadings in PCA Analysis
Variable
Average annual temperature Average annual precipitation Annual maxi


crease in impervious area leads to higher urban runoff, which also leads to higher nitrogen loads. If impervious area increases more than 50 percent above the current baseline (consistent with the ICLUS A2 high population projection; see right two ba


consider what augments might be most effective to help mitigate this vulnerable scenario. This step illustrates what could be done as part of a fuller treatment. We considered two key factors:
Table 3.11
Scenario Discovery Analysis Summary Results


ly in terms of net nitrogen load removal. This is driven primarily by assumptions about BMP performance built into the Phase 5.3.2 model that were not tested rigorously nor allowed to vary in this analy- sis. Performance for each BMP varies, with bet


rmance in terms of cost-effectiveness relative to most other BMPs. A series of others, ranging from bioswales to urban stream restoration, also provide rea- sonable cost effectiveness when compared with other approaches on a per-unit basis.
The resul


TMDL
    Example Future 2
Nitrogen load: 1.2M lbs
Average precipitation increase: 3.7% Population projection: Trend growth Development pattern: Infill
      Example Future 1
Mitigation strategy:
80,892 additional acres of urban filtering practices
Co


ight of the vulnerabilities identified in this pilot analysis. Additional analysis is needed to thoroughly test alternate approaches against the range of futures considered in this report, as well as other key uncertainties that could not be addresse


orth Farm Creek Tributary of the Illinois River
Introduction
The Illinois River, a principal tributary of the Mississippi River Basin, flows for about 270 miles across central Illinois, beginning just south of Chicago and joining the Mis- sissippi ne


this chapter focuses on managing the effects of climate change and other uncertainties on the North Farm Creek Implemen- tation Plan using the December 2012 load reduction strategy as the starting point. The strategy did not previously consider clim


noff are transported over impervious sur-
Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on the Implementation Plan for North Farm Creek 63
faces. Wastewater discharges from three permitted NPDES facilities in the area further exacerbate the in-stream nutr


ness
• Intrinsic performance
• In response to climate change
Systems Model Relationships (R)
SWAT model of North Farm Creek calibrated to meet current water quality airshed model
  Policy Levers (L)
Draft Implementation Plan, including structural man


l flow
Return flow
    Deep (confined) aquifer
Recharge to deep aquifer
Revap from shallow aquifer
      Implementation plan
R’s
L’s
  X’s
X’s
RAND RR720-4.4
Pollution loads
M’s
Climate projections
   SWAT model
   BMP effectiveness
66 Managing Water


tion in more detail.
We needed to make several other modifications to SWAT in order to automate multiple runs for use in the RDM analysis. We first obtained the FORTRAN binaries
Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on the Implementation Plan for


or retrofits of pollutant control and conveyance structures. Some of the former, such as education programs and the development of ordinances, are applied to the entire watershed. But in most cases, management options are applied only to particular


n. The milestones refer to the qualitative levels of activity shown in Table 4.3 under the column “phasing.” For instance, the emphasis on green infrastructure retrofitting is high in Phase II and is continued into Phase III. The quantitative goals f


4
Land Use Type and Removal Efficiencies for BMPs Considered in Case Study
 Structural BMP
Green infrastructure retrofitting
Grassed waterways
Riparian area management (filter strips)
Conservation tillage
Land Use (HRU)
Urban
Cropland (corn, soy); pa


ge will affect such relationships. Thus, we restricted ourselves to using the generic module in which we can directly specify (and modify) removal efficiencies. In particular, using the generic BMP module precluded treatment of two impor- tant BMPs:


so the overall removal capacity will be: Eff2 ≈ E1 + (1-E1)×E2. Suppose we’re interested in phosphorus removal through conservation tillage (E1 = 0.45) and grassed waterways (E2 = 0.75). As such, for case 1 Eff1 = 0.6, and for case 2 Eff2 = 0.86. Th


n is typi- cal of most ensembles of regional climate projections, which generally show a larger spread in precipitation than temperature and, in particular, often disagree about the sign of future precipitation changes (IPCC, 2013).
Watershed modelin


scussion of this technique is available from Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP) (2015).
 74 Managing Water Quality in the Face of Uncertainty
to the GCM outputs (USEPA, 2013). The study found in general that projections of flow a


es (six downscaled climate projections and one projection that repeats the observed historical record)
• 20 sets of BMP effectiveness parameters generated using a Latin hypercube sample over the range 50 percent to 100 percent for each of the four BM


d.
RAND RR720-4.6
          20.97K
    80
Annual sediments—all futures (2041–2060) (million pounds/year)
60
40
20
           2.18K
      Phosphorus
  8
Annual phosphorus—all futures (2041–2060) (thousand pounds/year)
16 14 12 10
64
2
       37.06K


ed by multiplying the TMDL values for Farm Creek by two scaling factors. The first scaling factor equates a given nutrient load derived from SWAT to the empirical load reported in the TMDL report. The second scaling factor is the ratio of a given nut


s highly correlated with BMP effectiveness, especially for nitrogen, as shown by the large spread of loadings for each climate projection in the right panel of Figure 4.7.
To further test the effects of these drivers, we reran the SWAT model while ho


crease the pollutant loadings from point- and non-point sources (Lins and Slack, 1999). Phosphorus loading, in particular, goes up due to increased weathering and erosion (Covich et al., 1997).
80 Managing Water Quality in the Face of Uncertainty
It


 sediment and phosphorus transport (Tetra Tech, undated). Finally, local IEPA staff report that the phosphorus TMDL for North Farm Creek may have been set at a very stringent level.
Identifying Vulnerabilities and Adaptive Management Responses
We can


MDL
CCSM3/CRCM
GFDL/RegCM GFDL/GFDL
CCSM3/RCM3
HadCM3/HRM3
N loadings exceed TMDL
 Effectiveness of green infrastructure retrofitting (relative to best-estimate)
–2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Average annual rainfall 2041–2060 (percent change from historic)
 Eva


ient loadings to nearby streams are smaller.
This information suggests that: (1) attributes of future climate beyond average annual precipitation may also be important in determining the success of North Farm Creek’s TMDL implementation plans, (2) th


sion, and channel transport capacity (i.e., USDA-ARS, 2014a). Similar changes may be necessary for phosphorus transport.
The above observations suggest several criteria upon which to judge whether a given watershed model is suitable for an RDM analys


ed several modifications to the SWAT model that might significantly enhance its suitability for such purposes.
The North Farm Creek Implementation Plan envisions an adaptive management approach with a phased BMP deployment that combines both monitori


A primary focus is on uncertainty associated with climate change, but the methods described can address a wide range of socioeconomic uncertainties as well. Importantly, TMDL planning under conditions of uncertainty is not only, or even primarily, an


sed to augment the plan further, suggests that additional invest- ment in some BMPs, including green infrastructure options such as wet ponds, wet- lands, and urban filtering practices, could help achieve stormwater TMDL targets cost- effectively in


 approaches, and decentralized decisionmaking.
But TMDL implementation plans are not generally robust and adaptive. Some are presented as static strategies, without any explicit treatment of uncertainty or flex- ibility. Even those TMDL plans that do


the Patux- ent region, for instance, observing changes in impervious area might require assem- bling detailed land use data and using building permits to project the future land use changes. Meteorological observations can provide data on current an


to observations related to those milestones. The “adjust as planned” tier on the right side of Figure 5.1 represents such adjustments, which take place within the context of an existing plan. In other cases, it may prove useful or necessary to revise


e, such
1 Using the terminology of triple-loop learning, the lowest tier in Figure 5.1 represents single-loop learning, the middle tier double-loop learning, and the highest tier triple-loop learning.
 Implications for USEPA Water Quality Management


he third column suggests how RDM might inform federal and state actions to modify the standard setting process.
2 See related discussion for water supply management in Bloom (2015).
 94 Managing Water Quality in the Face of Uncertainty
Table 5.1
Case


nal and resource limitations, for instance, the Patuxent case study did not consider uncertainty regarding BMP effectiveness, and the North Farm Creek case study did not consider uncertainty regarding future land use, though these two factors are lik


rtainty
to environmental management, such as green infrastructure, have created a need for new forward-looking analytic approaches to help make water management plans more flexible and robust. Such new approaches may help reconcile the tension betwee


General policies on allowing variances, mixing zones and critical flows
Evaluate: UAA, water-quality criteria validity and efficacy
Public comment
Set standard
USEPA approval ?
Yes
           Contaminant concentration criteria (numeric + narrative)


dditional simula- tion and vulnerability analysis results for the 2035–2045 hydrology period, including both phosphorous load results across many futures and additional scenario discovery. The final section presents a similar set of simulated results


. The bottom panel presents the cumulative flow estimates for the observed and the simulated data.
The comparison of the flow data shows that the Phase 5 tends to slightly overesti- mate flow estimates in the river, but is generally in close range wi


the Face of Uncertainty
Additional Results for the 2035–2045 Hydrology Period Water Quality Results Across Many Futures
Figure C.4
Scatterplot of Phosphorous and Sediment Loads, Both Plans (2035–2045)
Current Management
Strategy
Phase II WIP


us Area
 150,088
151,754
 146,083
 All Areas
 373,850
381,998
 364,628
 Average Temperature (degrees Fahrenheit)
 Winter
 45.4
45.1
 44.3
 Summer
 72.3
72.1
 71.6
 Annual
 58.9
58.6
 58.0
 Average Precipitation (inches)
 Winter
 22.9
22.9
 22.7
 Summ


ation 2035–2045 (percent change from historical 1984–2005) RAND RR720-C.7
               Impervious area (percent change from base case)
             114 Managing Water Quality in the Face of Uncertainty
Results for the 2055–2065 Hydrology Period
Wat


Criteria (%)
≤10 ≤10 ≤15 ≤ 30 ≤ 30 ≤ 30 ≤ 30 ≤ 20 ≤ 50
      Table D.2
Hydrology Calibration and Validation Summary Statistics at Fondulac Creek near East Peoria
 SWAT Simulated Flow
Reach outflow from outlet 5
11.91-year analysis period: 10/1/2000–


l volume
Error in 50% lowest flows
Error in 10% highest flows
Seasonal volume error— summer
Seasonal volume error—fall Seasonal volume error—winter Seasonal volume error—spring Error in storm volumes
Error in summer storm volumes
Nash-Sutcliffe coeff


hesapeake Bay Program, 2008. As of May 15, 2015: http://www.chesapeakebay.net/channel_files/16174/review_chesapeake_bay_watershed_modeling_ effort_2008.pdf
Bankes, Steven C., “Exploratory Modeling for Policy Analysis,” Operations Research, Vol. 41, N


//www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/aV5fVlxX20080430092814.pdf
Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority, Louisiana’s Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast, Baton Rouge, La.: Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Loui


r Future Directions,” Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, Vol. 186, 2007, pp. 351–363.
Donigian, Anthony S., Jr., Brian R. Bicknell, Avinash S. Patwardhan, Lewis C. Linker, Chao-Hsi Chang, and Robert Reynolds, “Chesapeake Bay Program Watershed Model Appl


rces Planning and Management, online publication, September 15, 2014.
Groves, David G., Martha Davis, Robert Wilkinson, and Robert Lempert, “Planning for Climate Change in the Inland Empire, Southern California,” Water Resources IMPACT, July 2008.
Gr


ental Panel on Climate Change, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, and Robert Swart, eds., Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2000. As of May 18, 2015: http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.php?idp=0
———, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Scien


wn, and R. Dyball, “Social Learning: A New Approach to Environmental Management,” in Social Learning in Environmental Management: Towards a Sustainable Future, London: Earthscan Publications Ltd, 2005, pp. 91–103.
King, Dennis, and Patrick Hagan, Cos


 D. Sarewitz, and M. Schlesinger, “Characterizing Climate-Change Uncertainties for Decision-Makers: An Editorial Essay,” Climatic Change, Vol. 65, No. 1–2, July 2004, pp. 1–9.
Lempert, Robert J., Steven W. Popper, and Steven C. Bankes, Shaping the Ne


aiyan
Teng, Josh Thompson, Simon Tucker, Bruce Wyman, Anila Anitha, Lawrence Buja, Christopher Macintosh, Larry McDaniel, Travis O’Brien, Yun Qian, Lisa Sloan, Gary Strand, and Casey Zoellick, “The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Pr


 2009. As of May 19, 2015:
h t t p : // w w w. n a p . e d u /c a t a l o g . p h p ? r e c o r d _ i d =1 2 6 2 6
———, Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change, Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press, 2010. As of May 19, 2015:
h t t


ing Your Options Open,” in Jonathan Rosenhead, ed., Rational Analysis for a Problematic World: Problem Structuring Methods for Complexity, Uncertainty and Conflict, Chichester, UK: John Wiley and Sons, 1989.
Rosenhead, M. J., M. Elton, and S. K. Gupt


tmdl/report/illinois-river/farm-creek-dry-run-implementation-plan. pdf
———, SWAT Model Calibration Report for Farm Creek Watershed, Research Triangle Park, N.C.: TetraTech Incorporated, 2014.
Trigeorgis, Lenos, Real Options: Managerial Flexibility an


al Research Service (USDA-ARS), and Texas A&M AgriLife Research, “SWAT Revision History,” 2014a. As of July 22, 2015: http://swat.tamu.edu/software/swat-executables/revisions/
USEPA—See U.S. Department of Environmental Protection.
Van Metre, Peter C.


s the development of implementation plans that specify the actions a community will take to attain total maximum daily load (TMDL) water quality standards. However, these plans typically do not take climate change or other challenging uncertainties i


 The Strategic Perspective and Long-Term Socioeconomic Strategies
for Israel
Key Methods with an Application to Aging
Steven W. Popper, Howard J. Shatz, Shmuel Abramzon, Claude Berrebi, Shira Efron
 CORPORATION
For more information on this publicatio


ng government officials in developing means by which Israel could enhance its capacity for applying strategic thinking to the development of government policy, particularly in the socioeconomic sphere. They asked us to provide a range of inputs on su


m is part of RAND Justice, Infrastructure, and Envi- ronment, a division of the RAND Corporation dedicated to improving policy and decisionmaking in a wide range of policy domains, includ- ing civil and criminal justice, infrastructure protection and


. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Steps in Applying a Strategic Perspective. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Population Aging in Israel: An Inevitable “Surprise” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


.......................... 141
Contents ix
Figures
 S.1. The Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act Loop . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xvi
S.2. Applying a Strategic Perspective (Observation and
Orientation) Within the Framework of Long-Term
Socio


ry............................................................ 107
A.1. Candidate Indicators of Socioeconomic Outcomes for AllFourBalanced-ScorecardAccounts......................... 123
Summary
 We provided support to an Israeli government team of hi


spective requires a common frame of reference for each element of the OODA loop, grounded in what matters to deci- sionmakers, as shown in Figure S.2. It typically begins with a vision:
Figure S.2
Applying a Strategic Perspective (Observation and Ori


policymakers make policy choices based on that role, so its omission would fail to reflect actual trade-offs. For most countries, we could omit national security from the socioeconomic scorecard. For Israel, this is a judgment call, so the figure all


riving and achieving consensus on a set of desirable outcomes
Examining strategic choices systematically and building a robust course of action
Determining requirements for moving from a strategy choice to a strategic plan
Example Application
Futures


trategies for Israel
In an era of rapid population aging, they could result in underutilizing valuable labor resources.
RAND was asked to conduct a major case-study analysis of countries that have preceded Israel into demographic transition. We selec


are
Share of those ages 25 and older who have engaged in further education in
life skills, work skills, and general culture
Availability of help through social contacts and families
   xxiv The Strategic Perspective and Long-Term Socioeconomic Strate


used several scenario techniques and developed a list of “what could go wrong” scenarios in the absence of policy action as Israel’s population ages. This allows decisionmakers to focus attention on particulars while they gain a better understanding


el could broaden the base by upgrading the skills of communities with marginal par- ticipation in the general economy. This could also include chang- ing work–life balance.
• improving outcomes for health and aging. This approach looks beyond the eff


ionmaking, and the problems of Israel’s aging population.
We also thank C. Richard Neu of RAND and Jack Habib, direc- tor of the Myers-JDC-Brookdale Institute, who provided insightful, detailed, and challenging formal reviews. Their comments greatly


ose challenges. Facing major existential challenges throughout Israel’s history, the govern- ment has not routinely developed strategic responses to problems that demand longer-term, coordinated policy action.
In 2010, the government appointed a team


an illustration applying these principles to the specific circumstances of Israel.
Chapter Five presents a schematic process for conducting an analysis intended to provide a strategic perspective on one or more socioeconomic issues. Chapters Six thro


 be coherent, in the sense that they should work together and complement each other. Just as important is the requirement that they be feasible: They should take account of potential obstacles and constraints.
5
6 The Strategic Perspective and Long-T


 also about the patterns of thinking that best match resources and capabilities to achieving desired policy ends” (Drezner,
2009, p. 14).1
Strategic Perspective and Its Link to Strategy
Strategy is often considered to be the peak of the policy pyrami


rop- erty of this process suggests that it is a capability that must be continu- ously called upon. This suggests the need for observation and orienta- tion to be integrated with the institutions for decision and action.
Figure 2.1
The Observe, Orien


capacity for incorporating them in a functionally meaningful way. A strategic approach to policy formation requires observing the effects of decisions and actions (observe) and then ana- lyzing them in the context of experience, governing constraint


unctions themselves nor the resulting findings are institutional- ized. This frustrates attempts to make individual insights shareable and provides no mechanism by which the insights of many offices could be developed through collaboration on particu


king by clarifying the means by which stra- tegic ends will be paid for.
The Strategic Perspective and Socioeconomic Policy 13
Informed by our findings, we and our partnering organization, Shaldor Strategy Consulting, recommended the following instit


o take a strategic perspective regarding socioeconomic prob- lems. We illustrate with specific examples stemming from the issues raised by the aging of Israel’s population. Of course, these examples are not in any way to be regarded as prescriptive:


tical lead- ers by describing the key trends and problems, putting them into an understandable context, analyzing the uncertainties, and building alternative future views to frame dialogue and fur- ther analysis. In doing so, they provide the tools f


at prog- ress is being made toward meeting these goals. Goals, means, and strat- egies might need to be recalibrated periodically in a recursive manner. As in archery, intended targets and actual points of impact might differ in practice. But having


atement of government strat- egy. It is technically possible to monitor trends and perform analyses independently of such considerations. But such monitoring and assess- ment will be of more practical use if they are informed by a sense of the public


the publications in the annual Measuring Austra- lia’s Progress series, e.g., Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2009). This is spurred, in part, by an interest in providing greater accountability for and understanding of government activities. The ex


of the organization and provides a complete portrait of what it is trying to achieve. We have chosen to apply this approach to Israel’s socioeco-
2 Briefly, this format originated in business and stemmed from the realization that paying attention sol


ern- ment institutions. The existing structure of Basic Laws does not yet cover all constitutional issues frequently found in the written constitutions of other countries.
 Figure 3.1
A Balanced Socioeconomic Scorecard for Israel
Well-being of the in


ion is to foster consid- eration and discussion, one could also argue that, for Israel, there are perhaps two other categories that require consideration.
The documents that laid the foundation for the modern state of Israel—the Balfour Declaration (


considerations, the concerns and actions taken on behalf of national defense have a profound influence on economic and social outcomes. In the spirit of a balanced scorecard, this aspect is at least hinted at in the design shown in Figure 3.1. It is


ve feelings. This is distinct from the measures under the account pertaining to government performance and dem- ocratic process, which are more tuned to understanding differences between communities and locales in this dimension. Similarly, includ- i


mind because of different roles measurement can play as part of building a strategic perspective. We use the term metric to refer to an ideal representation of what we seek to assay and monitor for each of the dimensions identified in Table 3.1 in C


 plans can be found in PMO, 2010.
 Measurement and Indicators of Socioeconomic Outcomes in Israel 31
also play a valuable role in conveying and supporting discussions about ideas, as well as in mobilizing political constituencies.
Measuring Progress


ffecting policy. Indicators are most influential when used for measurement, their first role, when there is considerable consensus on policy objectives and agreement on what types of policy are appropriate. In instances in which this level of wide ag


asing a discussion of strategy on specific social and economic goals.
Tables 4.1 to 4.4 each elaborate on one of the four accounts in the balanced scorecard we seek to illuminate. In the left column, each table shows the dimensions that appeared in T


nued Dimension
Ideal Metric
Measurement and Indicators of Socioeconomic Outcomes in Israel 35
    Work–life balance Education and skills
Civic engagement and governance
Social and cultural connections
Environmental quality
Personal security Subjectiv


Israel in external Jewish communities
Attractiveness of Israel to Jewish individuals
Israel leadership in sustaining and adding to Jewish cultural resources
    We have developed metrics as constituent elements of a strategic frame- work for consider


low (Bell, Eason, and Frederiksen, 2011).
Sets of indicators should be reviewed over time for their contin- ued relevance. The very popularity of a particular indicator could become problematic if it no longer accurately reflects the actual condition


 an automobile, dashboard in this context would refer to a set of measures chosen to be a small set of indicators for monitoring the results from policy initiatives and socioeconomic outcomes.
 40 The Strategic Perspective and Long-Term Socioeconomic


e daily practice can involve compromises, it is useful to lay out explicitly an idealized view of how a strategic process might logically proceed.
Table 5.1 shows the major conceptual steps involved. The first column identifies the portion of the OOD


 and the public interest: Which of these will be most affected? What other areas might be affected indirectly? What indicators are important to watch for developments?
Dynamic analysis—the quantification of trends and possible causal effects, along w


ing a Strategic Perspective 45
   Step
1. Scan and list initial questions.
2. Gather information.
3. Understand the system.
4. Perform dynamic analysis.
5. Build scenarios.
6. Identify key questions and strategic directions.
7. Define strategic objec


ght, we present several insights into population aging in Israel and the potential influence in socioeconomic outcomes. We do so in several stages, starting in Chapter Six with scanning and listing initial questions, as indicated in Table 5.2. In thi


y bodies responsible for socioeconomic well-being? As a practical matter, it is usually difficult enough to find sufficient time and attention to deal with day-to-day concerns so as to preclude any serious consideration of the future.
Several techniq


he group’s original story of the path Israel took to achieve the desirable future in the story?
4. How would the wild-card events affect the likelihood that the
future positive story about Israel would actually be written?
The backcasting exercise se


of any scenario-based exercise. In particular, the two-stage structure employed in the Novem- ber 2011 workshop, in which surprises are introduced into what oth- erwise would be a process of linear extrapolation, introduces the con- cept of robustnes


ce and might even serve as points of leverage for moving closer to that vision for a future Israel.
In this light, it is interesting to note that, even in this broadest of contexts, in which literally everything associated with economy and society in


rael faces. The first of these are the indications that extended life spans need not necessarily mean more years of ill health. This is an additional example of a prior assump- tion being reconsidered on the basis of emerging evidence. A more complex


488-6.2
5 Rohwedder and Willis, 2010, found direct effects on cognitive ability from early retire- ment. Degree of social engagement also affects health and health outcomes (Luo et al., 2002; Steptoe et al., 2013).
  Figure 6.3
Changes in Mortality a


lation aging as a strategic issue. Although many demographic trends have eminently predictable aspects (for example, all people who will turn 65 in the year 2035 are alive today), the effects of these fore- seeable trends take years to develop to the


rld. Unlike most other countries in the OECD, it still enjoys overall fertil- ity rates above replacement. But the situation is changing. Some of the factors that kept Israel a comparatively young country (a postindepen- dence domestic “baby boom” co


System 63
Figure 7.1
Age Structure of Israel’s Population in 2009, by Community
 Male
     Female
Non-haredi Jews and others
Haredi Jews Arabs
 Age (years)
80+ 75–79 70–74 65–69 60–64 55–59 50–54 45–49 40–44 35–39 30–34 25–29 20–24 15–19 10–14 5–9 0–


-growth scenario assumptions.
RAND RR488-7.3
specialists has nearly doubled in the past ten years, Israel still has a relative shortage. General physicians, not geriatricians, fill most of the voids. Accordingly, hospitals might not have physicians w


65 and older in Israel and that in several other OECD member countries as shown in results of a standard survey. This is important because of the growing body of literature demonstrating links between social isolation and loneliness on one hand and b


nd complex hospitalization care) are NIS 11.4 billion (Chernichovsky and Regev, 2012). Currently, private and public sources of funding share these costs equally. This represents a relatively low share of GDP (approximately 1.2 percent), but, given t


orts it.
A second main finding is that various issues that population aging affects (such as pensions, employment, housing, health, and family policy) appear most often to be treated separately and distinctly from each other. There has been some move


erations. The intention was to raise awareness of the contribution that older people make to society and to encourage policymakers and relevant stakeholders at all levels
Information-Gathering and Mapping the System 71
to take action with the aim of


-up of chronically ill patients and better
coordination of care
– enhanced preventive health services
– greater attention to mental health
– better self-care through increased health literacy and access to
tools for greater adaptability.
• attacking


sts.
Pensions, Income, and Welfare
Pensions and income-replacement policies are central in all the coun- tries’ strategies. Although it is a large and complex field in itself, several trends stand out from a cross-country assessment.
One indicator of


sion on the most vulnerable.
• public education: Encourage people to save for their own retire- ment to make up for reductions in public benefits that are already in the pipeline or are likely to be required.
The OECD’s position is that a diversified


ability to live at home.
• effect of life expectancy: Differences in life expectancy have a large influence on pension wealth. Other things being equal, countries with lower-than-average life expectancy can afford to pay men a pension 10 percent high


ractive and rewarding proposition for older people, there is need for action on both the demand side and supply side. This requires cooperation by government, employers, and civil society. First, there must be strong financial incentives to continue


orkplace, such countries as Finland
80 The Strategic Perspective and Long-Term Socioeconomic Strategies for Israel
have been cultivating a culture of lifelong learning at midcareer, while others, such as Japan, have been providing employment assistan


However, as fertility declines, per-family and per- child expenditures on human-capital development rise in a surprisingly consistent manner across countries (Lee and Mason, 2010). The effec- tiveness of these expenditures has at least the potential


ounger ones. Thus, the OECD has developed recom- mendations for building safer vehicles for the elderly and investing in safety-enhancing road infrastructure.
Environmental Issues and Health
Population aging exacerbates the effects of societal transp


ies
Ideal Metric
Availability of material means to achieve life goals
Wealth to sustain shocks and meet goals over time
Access to adequate housing
Housing affordability
Status with respect to disease
Status with respect to wellness
Time balance betwe


est.
CHAPTER EIGHT
Dynamic Analysis: Focus on Health Care Cost and Dependency
 In Chapter Seven, we assessed available information and drew infer- ences for Israel. In this chapter, we utilize existing data on trends to conduct dynamic analyses proje


that other changes might also occur in terms of both GDP growth and the prices of various types of health care. Both would most likely be in directions that would further accentuate the rise in health care spending as a share of GDP.
 Demographic Sce


elf in any of a wide range of scenarios. In another ten years, 2034, the range rises to between 27 and 29. In 2059, the high–population growth projections yield 31, while the low- growth projections, those that seem to accord with more-recent trends


ew adjusted total dependency ratio was not 0.84 but rather 1.21. That is, the number of actual dependent Israelis ages zero to 19 and at least 65 years old exceeded the number of Israelis actually employed in the formal economy. If we assume that the


hat a labor force more skewed toward the older end of the spectrum might well prove less innovative or productive in aggregate. There might also be effects on exchange rates as the balance of demand shifts from tradable toward nontradable goods and s


ayments, even without further proceeds (NII, 2011). With business as usual, the reserve ratio is expected to change its course and begin decreasing, starting from 2014. According to demographic
Dynamic Analysis: Focus on Health Care Cost and Dependen


 national product should take this factor into account.
CHAPTER NINE
Scenario Building: First Simple Steps
 In Chapter Eight, we reported on dynamic analyses to project current and possible trends into the future. The quantitative approach is indis-


s wheel as an aid to extrapola- tion. It notes at least three trends observable in 2012: increasing lon- gevity, increasing aged population, and the aged generally requiring more health and social services, especially those focused on problems of agi


ts from the prospective change in areas, such as intergenerational transfers, effects on social and family life, the balance of supply and demand in the labor market, and the volume and categories of public expenditures.
The futures wheel, though sim


sive
• the young contributing more time and money to elder care
• elders demanding more public and alternative transportation
• pay-as-you-go systems needing more workers’ taxes
• elder-care burden affecting family budgets
• financial literacy being


It provides a schematic map- ping of trends, determining factors, goals, and outcomes. It is an aid to both strategic assessment and strategic planning by creating a means for looking at the big picture while making clear the relationships among the


ms
Insufficient incentives for geriatric-worker training
Scenario Building: First Simple Steps 107
      108 The Strategic Perspective and Long-Term Socioeconomic Strategies for Israel
the plan turns out to be completely ineffective or even worse. A


gies (see Lempert et al., 2008, for an example).3
Robust decisionmaking (RDM) is a method designed for use with quantitative models. It is not a new modeling technique but rather a different approach to the way models are used. Policymakers can combi


placed within a larger framework that encompasses a full range of socioeconomic concerns. Chapter Ten brings the process of gaining a strategic perspective to the point at which it can support meaningful policy discussions.
CHAPTER TEN
Moving Toward


entions, and whose contribution to society might be enhanced by policy changes.
• Mental, physical, and emotional well-being is affected by increas- ing engagement in work, leisure, and social activities (Rowe and Kahn, 1997).
• Meaningful engagement


 financial responsibility and so create a constituency for public action.
Israel could take any of a range of different actions in each of the issue areas touched by population aging. More generally, actions in
114 The Strategic Perspective and Long-


lth aware- ness and morbidity prevention (through primary care), conducting comprehensive geriatric assessments in the community, and provid- ing home-oriented medical care and rehabilitation. Such efforts would have the potential to reduce the burde


e context of population aging, the Strategy Unit would monitor various aging- related factors, such as population projections, health indicators, and labor-market indicators, on an ongoing basis. As part of its horizon scanning and foresight practice


enda and action plans. Approval by the Political Forum would lead to further development of a detailed plan as part of the government’s strategic agenda.
The strategic agenda would emerge from a term-specific strategy planning process designed to pro


s. In parallel, the Strategy Unit would continue to conduct its long-term process of monitoring the effects that major factors are having on the society and economy and of performing foresight and horizon scanning. Some of these practices would be di


ts.
   4. Have the Professional Forum coordinate and plan.
  5. Plan in detail.
    6. Obtain PM’s and cabinet’s approval of the detailed plan.
 7. Execute the plan.
  In this report and its companion (Shatz et al., 2015), we lay out a framework of i


apter Three. As before, this is intended to provide an illustration; it is by no means definitive, complete, or necessarily the only possible such framework. For example, we discussed weaknesses of each suggested metric and identified similar metrics


 Programme for International Student
Assessment reading skills
S-28 Trends in International Mathematics and
Science Study math and science skills
S-29 Share of those 25 years and older who have
engaged in further education in life skills, work skills


1—Continued
 Goal
Sustainable, growing, and innovative economy, continued
Dimension
Innovation, continued
Macro stability and finance
Ideal Metric
Innovative capacity growth
Fiscal and monetary balances
ID Suggested Measure
E-13 Gross domestic expend


ies
J-3 Annual visits to Israel, by country
J-4 Immigration from high-income countries
 Israel’s J-5 leadership
in sustaining and adding to Jewish cultural resources
 NOTE: CO2 = carbon dioxide.
a The Gini coefficient is a statistical representation


 to recover from unemployment)
• infrastructure
Selected Output from the November 2011 Backcasting Workshop 133
– improving mobility—public transport
– effective urban construction to efficiently enhance the quality
of life.
“What Underlying Factors


e for elderly.
Home Care
• Change income tests of eligibility for public support for home care services by using them solely to determine level of eligibility or dispensing with income tests and determining level of eligibil- ity according to functio


e month in a geriatric center, included within the residency year of each new physician, mandating that resident physicians in internal and family medi- cine choose extensions in geriatrics.
• Develop a policy regarding the necessary attention that s


15: http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a425228.pdf
Auping, Willem, Erik Pruyt, Jan Kwakkel, Govert Gijsbers, and Michel Rademaker, Aging: Uncertainties and Solutions, The Hague: Centre for Strategic Studies and TNO, Report 2012-10, 2012. As of M


s Based on Stated Preference,” American Economic Review, Vol. 104, No. 9, September 2014, pp. 2698–2735.
Bourgeois-Pichat, Jean, article title unknown, Population, Vol. 3, 1952.
———, article title unknown, Population Bulletin of the United Nations, V


and Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long- Term Implications of an Older Population, Washington, D.C.: National Academies Press, 2012. As of May 4, 2015:
http://w w w.nap.edu/catalog/13465/ aging-a


012.
European Union, “European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC),” undated.
“Excerpt from an Address Before a Joint Session of Congress, 25 May 1961,” Columbia Broadcasting System, May 25, 1961. As of May 4, 2015: http://www.


//w w w.nber.org/papers/w11833
Hall, Stephen, Edward Tredger, Mohammad Ali, and Pat Thomas, eds.,
Sustainable Development Indicators in Your Pocket 2009: An Update of the UK Government Strategy Indicators, London: Department for Environment, Food and


Transition,” European Journal of Population, Vol. 26, No. 2, May 2010, pp. 159–182.
Lempert, Robert J., Steven W. Popper, and Steven C. Bankes, Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis, Santa Monica,


fare-proposals
OECD—See Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Oeppen, Jim, and James W. Vaupel, “Broken Limits to Life Expectancy,” Science,
Vol. 296, No. 5570, May 10, 2002, pp. 1029–1031.
Offord Centre for Child Studies, “The Earl


ment, Keep Working,” Well, October 19, 2009. As of May 8, 2015:
http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/10/19/ for-a-healthy-retirement-keep-working/?_r=0
Pirttilä, Jukka, and Håkan Selin, Tax Policy and Employment: How Does the Swedish System Fare, Hel


unknown, in Suzanne G. Haynes and Manning Feinleib, eds., Second Conference on the Epidemiology of Aging: Proceedings of the Second Conference, March 28–29, 1977, Bethesda, Md.: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services; Public Health Services; N


ionery Office Limited, HC 435, October 18, 2010. As of May 4, 2015:
h t t p : / / w w w . p u b l i c a t i o n s . p a r l i a m e n t . u k / p a / c m 2 0 1 0 11 / c m s e l e c t / cmpubadm/435/435.pdf
UK Prime Minister’s Strategy Unit, Strategy


anization, “WHO Mortality Database,” undated. As of July 16, 2015:
http://www.who.int/healthinfo/mortality_data/en/
Yarger, Harry R., Strategic Theory for the 21st Century: The Little Book on Big Strategy, Carlisle, Pa.: Strategic Studies Institute,


 Nanomaterial Safety in the Workplace
Pilot Project for Assessing the
Impact of the NIOSH Nanotechnology Research Center
Eric Landree, Hirokazu Miyake, Victoria A. Greenfield
 CORPORATION
For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t


e RAND Corporation’s application of the proposed method to a por- tion of NTRC’s operations. For purposes of this pilot study and to test our model of NTRC operations, we limited our data collection concerning NIOSH outputs and stakeholder engagement


.
A.1. Venn Diagram of Criteria for Scoping the NTRC Assessment . . . . . . . . . ..........
A.2. NIOSH NTRC Logic Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..........
A.3. Notional Logic Mode


and health of workers who could be affected by the production, use, reuse, or disposal of the products of nanotechnology that are of greatest concern to workers, such as engineered nanomaterials. The purpose of the project was to develop a method th


cuss NTRC’s outputs and services and how they are being used to affect worker safety and health. These discus- sions were used to verify and expand our initial logic model and to collect examples of NTRC contributions to worker safety and health rela


would like to especially thank our reviewers, Philip Antón, RAND senior engi- neer currently on Intergovernmental Personnel Act assignment to the Department of Defense as the Deputy Director of the Acquisition Policy Analysis Center within the Offic


lementation of the World Trade Center Health Program.1
NIOSH’s staff consists of more than 1,200 employees with expertise in fields ranging from epidemiology, medicine, nursing, industrial hygiene, safety, psychology, chemistry, statistics, and econo


chnology and nano- materials; create a strategic plan for investigating these issues; coordinate the NIOSH research effort by engaging with scientists and engineers across NIOSH divisions, lab- oratories, and offices to develop research partnerships;


and impacts is typically diffuse and indirect, and it can be difficult to discern. For instance, multiple efforts or events (including other research efforts) may be needed to achieve a particular impact. Similarly, research findings can contribute


n length), or only one dimension (i.e., sheets of materials whose thickness is 100 nanometers or less, such as graphene). We use engineered nanomaterial to refer to both purposefully fabricated nanomaterials as well as nanoscale materials whose surfa


ope.
4. Identify and contact NTRC’s stakeholders or a subset of stakeholders to inquire
about their familiarity with and use of NTRC products (e.g., research findings, guidance documents, prototypes), both to further refine and finalize the pre-
6 Fo


ood
service)a
• Electronics (e.g., semiconductor)a
• Food additivesa, b
• Clothing, textiles, fabrics coatinga, b
   tiple industry sectors and topic areas, but that would not include the totality of the center (see Figure 1.2).
On that basis, we sel


formation to populate the model, as well as our initial findings, based largely on a content analysis of publicly available documents. Chapter Three focuses on program efforts, and Chapter Four focuses on program effects. Chapter Four also describes


se mission is to reduce occupational inju- ries, illnesses, and fatalities may not capture impacts that occur as a result of that research migrating beyond occupational safety and health.
1 There are several sources of information on the theory and e


• Activities represent what an organization does on a daily basis. Depending on the size and complexity of the organization, the range of activities can be narrow or broad. In the case of the NTRC logic model, there are four general types of activi-


t received NTRC products. Therefore, while it is the case that some customers may also be part- ners, we do not discuss partners in detail. For more thorough descriptions of the potential role of partners, the authors recommend Greenfield, Williams,


o improve its usability, and those modifications may enhance the equipment’s use and adoption by other workers. End customers could also provide feedback to NIOSH that could inspire new research activities regarding performance or the form factor of


as used to categorize and align the various pieces of information is shown in Table C.1 in Appendix C.
The modification of the NIOSH logic model mission statement to create an NTRC-specific mission is consistent with the program-level mission stateme


ests raised by stakeholders (i.e., partners, intermediate customers, and end
customers)
• Risk assessment findings
• Scientific journal articles
• Animal and epidemiological studies
SOURCE: Based on RAND analysis of documents, with input from NTRC.
W


equipment to generate and characterize dispersed or aerosolized nanoparticles
• Identify and develop nanoscale reference materials
for calibrating measurement instruments
• Evaluate diffusion charge-based sensors
• Develop protocol for measuring nano


tomers without having to pass through intermediate customers. For this reason, we call out the trans- fer that occurs through the NTRC field research teams as a separate mechanism for transferring NTRC outputs to both employers and workers that suppo


ce-to-face exchange, which is consistent with our characterization of the NTRC field research team’s on-site engagement with employers and workers. In addition, publishing scientific findings in journals, publishing and dis- seminating NIOSH reports,


Nanomaterial Safety in the Workplace: Pilot Project for Assessing the Impact of NIOSH NTRC
Table 4.1
Preliminary List of NTRC Intermediate Customers
Intermediate Customers
Industry (establish policies/procedures)
• Manufacturers of nanomaterials
• Di


s that contain nano-Ag and construction companies that use engineered nano- materials that are integrated into other construction materials. This subcategory also includes the growing number of companies involved with the recovery, recycling, or disp


nder the rubric of researcher and research institutions might be the easiest to substantiate—for example, through con- ventional bibliometric assessments or citation analysis. Insomuch as these types of cus- tomers make use of NTRC outputs in their o


ers
Intermediate Outcomes
• Acquisition of engineering controls and PPE in industrial processes
• Use of NIST Standard Reference Materials
• Use of NIOSH-developed measurement methods
• Acquisition of monitoring and sam- pling equipment
    SOURCE: B


contained in Tables 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 4.1, 4.2, and 4.3 were trans- lated into the logic model in Figure 4.1. As described in Chapter Three, NTRC activ- ities associated with conducting research; developing instruments, test equipment, protocols, and re


ocumenting NIOSH NTRC Program Effects 27
     Mission: To provide national and world leadership to prevent work-related illnesses and injuries resulting from exposures to nanomaterials
End outcomes:
Reduction in work-related illnesses and injuries re


ports
    Conduct research Research and evaluate the human health effects (e.g.,
nanostructured materials (e.g., nanowires and pulmonary, respiratory, neuroimmune response, neurological) and toxicity associated with exposure to nanoparticles); Resear


lp refine our NTRC logic model.
CHAPTER FIVE
Information About Intermediate Outputs and Outcomes from NIOSH NTRC Customers
In this chapter, we discuss criteria used to identify NTRC stakeholders to contact as part of Step 4 of our approach. We then r


eral perceptions of NIOSH and NTRC and their outputs; how the customers become aware of or obtain NTRC outputs; how they use those outputs (e.g., research findings, recommendations, other publications, services); and how NTRC outputs affect their own


Requests for Information (RFIs), which are published in the Federal Register and are a way for NIOSH to communicate OSH topics of interest to its cus- tomers. In addition, NTRC management and researchers directly engage with stake- holders as part o


een industries dealing with the same material) or across intermedi- ate customer subcategories. For example, an intermediate customer that was a federal organization mentioned that companies had sent it chemical notices that included NIOSH data gener


s; Law firms or legal organizations; Unions or worker representatives; Consensus standards groups; Other nongovernmental organizations; Other lobbyist groups
 Government (international, federal, state, local)
Regulators; Government laboratories and r


TRC field research teams in con- tributing to changes in workplace practices and procedures, introducing controls, and conducting on-site monitoring and assessments. However, given the limited scope of our pilot effort and the relatively small number


ational and world leadership to prevent work-related illnesses and injuries resulting from exposures to nanomaterials
NIOSH NTRC Program Effects
End outcomes:
Reduction in work-related illnesses and injuries related to engineered nanomaterial exposur


r aerosolized nanoparticle generator to test exposures; Method for health hazard banding for nanostructured materials where potential toxicity is unknown; Technical input regarding nanostructured standard reference measuring nanostructured materials’


ent
findings; Scientific
journal articles;
Animal and
epidemiological
studies
 Inputs
 36 Nanomaterial Safety in the Workplace: Pilot Project for Assessing the Impact of NIOSH NTRC
Other Topics Raised by Intermediate Customers
During our discussions,


ed the concern that industry is moving faster than safety and health research and faster than regulations, which can lead to outdated rules and regu- lations. One customer noted that a lack of formal regulations might contribute to a lack of on-site


achieving a desired impact or benefit.
Also, directly engaging with NIOSH stakeholders was critical for assessing, mod- ifying, and refining the NIOSH NTRC logic model. As this pilot study indicated, the theory of how NIOSH’s program efforts would co


step would involve identifying and cataloging data that are already available, data that currently exist but that are not used or available to NIOSH, and data that do not exist or are not currently collected but that would be desirable for tracking


model if no
previous model is available), consistent with the defined scope.
4. Identify and contact NTRC’s stakeholders or a subset of stakeholders to inquire about their familiarity with and use of NTRC products (e.g., research findings, guidance d


Scoping NTRC Assessment
   Example Industry Sector
• Coating (e.g., paints)
• Cosmetics (e.g., sunscreen)
• Construction (e.g., concrete)
• Services (e.g., cleaning, dry
cleaning, food service)
• Electronics (e.g.,
semiconductor)
• Food additives
• C


vities
Transfer: Conduct field research team site visits for face-to-face engagement with employers and employees at industries involved with the formulation or use of nanostructured materials
NIOSH NTRC Program Efforts
= feedback and interactions
=


tutions; Trainers
      Publish scientific findings in journals; disseminate NIOSH numbered reports; Present at scientific Transfer: Directly engage with customers; Publish and
and OSH conferences and meetings; Sponsor
nanomaterials; or co-sponsor wo


nd international organizations and associations; Occupational safety and health
organizations and associations
RAND RR1108-A.2
 Production:
Funding; Staff;
Managerial
support; Laboratory
and research
facilities
Planning:
Budget, strategy,
and plannin


 to a program’s strategic goals or stated mission.
• External factors are circumstances or events exogenous to the program that posi-
tively or negatively affect an organization’s ability to achieve outcomes.
2 Partners actively participate with an o


ure that they are all of the same type. For example, one can check to ensure that everything under the Activities column contains only examples of actions or descriptions of actions (i.e., verbs) that NTRC has taken or is currently taking (i.e., are


nt to which particu- lar NTRC efforts have progressed to outcomes and to identify additional contacts in
Look for connection between adjacent entries to construct a causal argument.
 48 Nanomaterial Safety in the Workplace: Pilot Project for Assessin


 NTRC Inputs
Production
• Funding
• Staff
• Managerial support
• Laboratory and research facilities
Inputs
Guide for Collecting Evidence of Contributions to NIOSH NTRC Outcomes 49
  Planning
• Budget, strategy, and planning documents
• Policies and p


les, nanotubes, nanofi- bers, and new forms of nanomaterials)
• Research occupational exposures to nanostructured materials
• Characterize the physical and chemical properties of nanostructured materials and products containing nano- structured mater


etings
• Sponsor or co-sponsor workshops on engineered nanomaterials
• Demonstrate equipment
• Update the NIOSH blog
SOURCE: Based on RAND analysis of documents and stakeholder remarks, with input from NTRC.
NTRC Intermediate Customers and Intermedia


f instruments to monitor and
manipulate nanomaterials Advocacy
• Business/industry associations
• Law firms or legal organizations
• Unions or worker representatives
• Consensus standards groups
• Other lobbyist groups
• Other nongovernmental organiz


uals. Individuals could, for example, be trained in occupational or environmental health and safety practices and procedures related, in part or whole, directly or indirectly, to nanomaterials. OSHA, some universities, and other organi- zations, such


d on RAND analysis, with input from NTRC.
document or measure changes along the path is missing or unobtainable; absent that capability, it might be difficult, if not impossible, to isolate a contribution.
For added emphasis, we restate that NTRC fie


ently.
The length of each conversation and the level of detail can be expected to vary, but common themes should include the customer’s general familiarity with NIOSH and NTRC; familiarity with NTRC outputs (e.g., research findings, recommenda- tions


opers and
through technical (HHEs), training assistance
     Intermediate Outcomes
Outputs
Activities
Inputs
Feedback
Research Partners
Pilot and/or
other federal programs; agencies; NIOSH
regulations, trade and major standards,
associations;
website


Logic Model Worksheet: Industry
Table C.2
Source or Reference
numbered document
NIOSH
document
NIOSH
N/A = not applicable; in this case, the transfer occurs directly to end customers.
SOURCE: Adapted by RAND staff.
a
End Outcomes
Notional Logic Model


d.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR370.html
Greenfield, Victoria A., Henry H. Willis, and Tom LaTourrette, Assessing the Benefits of U.S. Customs and Border Protection Regulatory Actions to Reduce Terrorism Risks, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation,


s in Research Laboratories, Cincinnati, Ohio: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, DHHS (NIOSH) Publication No. 2012-147, 2012b. As of Decembe


dscape Survey on Nanoscale Cellulose, Silver, Titanium Dioxide, and Graphene: A Market Landscape Analysis, Research Triangle Park, N.C.: RTI International, RTI Project Number 0212288.017, 2014.
Shadish, William R., Thomas D. Cook, Laura C. Leviton, F


 Quality of Life Indicators and Policy Strategies to Advance Sustainability in the Pearl River Delta Debra Knopman, Johanna Zmud, Liisa Ecola, Zhimin Mao, Keith Crane
 CORPORATION
For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR871
L


ng mechanism for policy- and decisionmaking.
The primary audiences for this report include officials at HURD and technical staff of other provincial departments and bureaus related to urban planning and urban rural develop- ment in Guangdong and the


 180
C.18. Employment of Respondents by Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
C.19. Satisfaction with Job, Financial Situation, and Work-Life Balance . . . . . . . . .


 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
D.5. Economic Development Indicators and Data Availability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192
D.6. Classification of Indicators Based on Type and Availabilit


sidents. This information, combined with subsequent analysis of data, was used to develop the quality of life indicator system and the policy recommendations that were derived from its application.
A policy goal is a desired outcome within the realm


but also less certain in effectiveness.
Indicator Framework
We developed a conceptual framework for the indicator system in the five selected policy areas that would contribute collectively to the improvement of quality of life in the PRD. Strategies


ot. However, responses to specific questions about various facets of life in Pingshan reveal a more nuanced view of conditions. For example, less than 50 percent of respondents liked the way their district looks and feels, with 43 percent saying they


in the Ping- shan Resident Satisfaction Survey, residents have expectations for public services and physi- cal amenities, including clean air, clean water, and green space, that are not being met at the levels desired. Reducing pollution and improvi


infrastructure and services. Three goals are suggested here. The first is to increase the density of residential space and employment opportunities through provision of high-quality compact development. We propose transit- oriented development, form


forms of public transit for a single trip, and (3) developing a travel survey that captures inter- and intracity travel flows and mode use to be implemented at regular intervals.
The third goal is to create an environment that emphasizes nonmotorized


missions; and the offi- cials (including heads of bureaus) responsible for issuing permits, monitoring compliance, imposing fines, and shutting down facilities that are in violation with the law.
• Increase incentives to comply with laws and regulati


the border crossing with Hong Kong–Macao so as to speed cross-border flows of goods and better penetrate China’s domestic market.
The second goal is to reduce income inequality by improving access to higher education and developing a labor force with


public services and facilities.
 Goal GL2
  Increase density of residential space and employment opportunities through provision of high- quality compact development.
   Strategy SL3
Strategy SL4
Strategy SL5
Promote transit-oriented development near


d cultural preservation has been neglected.
 Goal GL5
 Strengthen measures to protect properties and assets with historical importance and distinctive local characteristics.
      Challenge CL4
  Current development patterns and processes do not adeq


umber of data entries as a consequence of implementation of travel surveys.
T2 Same as above
T9 Proportion of paid parking spaces relative to all public parking spaces
T10 Satisfaction with parking availability
T11 Number of parking citations issued


ermitting
E4 Percentage of total permitted facilities in full compliance with their permits
E5 Amount (in RMB) of fines collected per year
E6 Percentage of residents who feel that drinking water quality has improved
E7 Percentage of residents who are


f source (e.g., power plants, industry facilities, residential and commercial buildings, and mobile sources)
Annual energy consumption per square meter in public, commercial, and residential buildings
     Accelerate removal of highly polluting E23 v


 H9 residents, where voucher payments are
directly provided to landlords after unit inspected and lease signed.
Implement and enforce building and H10 amenity standards for all public rental
housing units and rental units built by
private developers.


de the following industries: information, computer services, software, and scientific research; and the services sector to include the following industries: finance and real estate services; health care and social welfare; transport, storage, and pos


and trusted means of demonstrating that policy strategies are contributing to achieve- ment of Guangdong’s long-term goals of a better life for all residents.
Acknowledgments
The RAND team would like to express our appreciation to Deputy Director-Gen


 in the Pearl River Delta (PRD), a region of Guangdong Province in southeastern China. These indicators and options are also intended to enable increased regional economic integration with the Special Administrative Areas of Hong Kong and Macao.
Qual


for Sustainable Communities, no date). The interagency partnership proposed livability principles: provide more transportation choices; promote equi- table, affordable housing; enhance economic competitiveness; support existing communities; coordina


2013, the slate of reforms embedded in the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee deepened the commitment to improve quality of life (“CPC Cen- tral Committee’s Third Plenary Session Party Sets Course for


l protection, finance and taxation, infrastructure investments, resource use, education, workforce development, and health care, among others. As a first step, our study focuses on five policy areas within the broader categories listed above: land us


d urbanization. This has, in turn, placed stress on water, transportation, and other infrastructure systems and also has caused serious environmental problems.
Government officials, planners, commercial interests, and the public have all recognized t


ort to the Ministry of Finance at the national level (OECD, 2010). Authority rests with the senior government executives at each level, but these executives are also required to comply with the decisions or priorities of their administrative counterp


arths), new information technology, high-end equipment manufacturing, and clean energy vehicles (KPMG Advisory [China], 2011).
The Report of Hu Jintao cited above put forth as top priorities the following: comprehen- sive development, improvement in


, such as air pollution, traffic congestion, excessive sprawl of urban boundaries into agricultural lands, degraded water quality, and inefficiencies in the provision of public infrastructure and services.
The rate of urbanization in China has been u


a income, as well as “push” factors, such as the abundant supply of labor force released from the agricultural sector, scarce non-agricultural job opportunities in rural areas, low availability of cultivated land, and very low per capita income that


ative, higher value-added manufacturing and service activities (Asian Business Council, 2011). In doing so, an ample supply of highly trained human capital is a critical factor. Shortages of highly trained work- ers make Guangdong less attractive to


oint of reference, we also looked at indicators relevant to land use and trans- portation from other countries or cities. A direct comparison between PRD cities and these selected cities is not valid, because the time when the studies were conducted,


and the Guangdong Province Environmental Protection Responsibilities Evaluation Indica- tor System (personal communication with Gu Zhengjiang of the Shenzhen Graduate School of Beijing University). The prefecture-level cities have also developed the


ve the economic and social well-being of its people. These goals derive from understanding key chal- lenges that are within the responsibility of governments to affect. For this initial effort, HURD asked RAND to concentrate on land use and transport


suggested in this report. Strategies in each of the five policy areas vary in complexity; their success in a given place at a given time cannot be assured without more detailed analysis and attention to imple- mentation in the specific context of the


tation will improve on these initial estimates based on their experience and conditions. Finally, we make a judgment about relative difficulty and complexity of imple- menting a strategy, with “easy” signifying a relatively low level of complexity, e


dicators of economic output: for example, per capita, per square kilometer, or percentage growth on an annual basis. Similarly, to repre- sent the state of transportation services, measures such as vehicle kilometers traveled, passen- ger volume per


t, map analy- sis, or otherwise. Related to importance and timeliness, collection of indicator data should be cost-effective relative to their value in assessing whether a given strategy is working. Part of the cost-effectiveness criterion is determi


quality of life. As Morais, Miguéis, and Camanho (2001) note: “some organizations, such as the European Com- mission (Rojas, 2011) and the World Health Organization (WHO—Quality of Life Group), consider that quality of life is a concept that embrace


lded the survey and entered the data. RAND staff then analyzed the data. The survey was designed to elicit responses about quality of life in the five policy areas with the intent of using it in other cities and districts in the province. Survey meth


in Pingshan New District. Details about the survey can be found in the appendixes. Appendix A summarizes the number of interviews completed in each community; Appendix B presents the frequencies of response distributions for each ques- tion; and App


survey was designed as a sample survey. We used stratified random sampling, a type of probability sampling, to select the people to be surveyed. The total popula- tion for Pingshan New District was organized by community; the sampling was performed


 with consistency so that differences in answers can be correctly interpreted as reflecting differences between respondents rather than differences in the process that produced the answer.
Three attempts were made to successfully complete an intervie


icycle (32 percent); only 8 percent say that they drive. Over 80 percent report that their place of work is in their community, and another 15 percent work elsewhere in Pingshan New District. As a consequence, over 85 percent report commut- ing times


th air and water quality was higher
Pilot Resident Survey in Pingshan New District 27
28 Quality of Life Indicators and Policy Strategies to Advance Sustainability in the Pearl River Delta
Figure 4.4
Perceptions of Land Use Characteristics and Their


d cultural heritage sites; and improved air and drinking water for all residents, particularly in those communities where dissatisfaction is highest.
In this section, we propose several general recommendations on policy strategies to the government o


n accidents will only increase. While there may be existing government-sponsored traffic safety education programs, few residents appear aware of them. Effective outreach to the public on this topic can be as important engineering or transportation p


est out the survey instrument itself, gain experience in conducting such surveys using in-person interviews, and identify ways in which it could be improved if it were to be more widely deployed throughout the PRD, whether at the city or district lev


ere adequately repre- sented in the sample. However, some cities may wish to conduct a citywide survey and not focus on conditions and trends within particular districts or communities. Samples sizes can be reduced accordingly.
Sample Size. Statistic


maintain an objective view of the abilities of all residents to provide meaningful responses. Interviewers needed to “learn” the questionnaire; interview length declined with interviewer practice. In fact, interviewers were required to practice read


ta by other means, the survey appears to be an efficient means of populating some indicators.
In the following chapters, we identify a number of survey questions that could serve as subjective indicators to either supplement objective indicators or s


ownership is not permitted. Instead, urban land is owned by the government, and rural land is owned collectively by villagers. This has led to the phenomenon of “villages within cities”—essentially pockets of rural land that stood in the path of urba


 measured.
For this reason, we focus our land use goals on addressing four challenges that have been brought on by rapid urbanization and inadequate land use planning. The first two deal broadly with land use planning. The first challenge is around t


rategies:
• Map land to be protected.
• Createmechanismstoensureprotection.
Challenge CL2: Urban Land Is Not Utilized in a Way That Allows for Efficient Provision of Public Services and Facilities
As opposed to the first challenge, which deals with h


lected
Many historic buildings that reflect centuries of Lingnan tradition have been demolished in favor of modern structures or industrial uses. While some decisions may be justified on a case- by-case basis, the overall impact is to disconnect resi


t in need of protection. Ecological protection zones are land areas defined by their favorability for various species as well as their vulnerability to loss of ecological functions as a consequence of development. Ecological protection zones might in


ecological control line as percentage of total area of land in the region.
• L2: Area of cultivated land as percentage of total area of land in the region.
– Explanation: The province and cities already track the total amount of land that is protecte


(UGB) could be measured, as an indicator of the effectiveness of the UGB in pushing new development into existing urbanized areas. Alternative indicators for ecological protection zones might include the percentage of vulnerable land protected using


rmined by the entity that administers the land. For example, some national parks restrict development to accommodate overnight visitors (roads, visitor centers, and lodging), while others severely restrict access because of the possibility of environ


heir disadvantages: overcrowding, tall buildings that form canyons blocking out natural light, lack of open space, and congestion. The overall goal is to reap the benefits of higher-density development while minimizing the disadvantages.
Table 5.1
La


s designation, cities must meet a set of criteria that includes committing to population growth, adopting a redevelopment plan or zoning ordinance that encourages TOD (generally including design guidelines and lower parking requirements), identifying


rved. For example, to prevent residential and commercial buildings from becoming too high and creating “canyons” that block light and views, new buildings can be constructed at a variety of heights.
These codes and guidelines do not mean that develop


 is mapped as a wedge, and the heights of the buildings in these view corridors are determined on a case-by- case basis (City of Vancouver, no date).
Indicator:
• L6: Percentage of residents who agree there is a good mix of building types (e.g. resid


ies to Advance Sustainability in the Pearl River Delta
nals). Nearly 500 U.S. cities have adopted such policies (Smart Growth America and National Complete Streets Coalition, 2013).
Indicators:
• L7: Average block length of new and rebuilt roads.
– E


r Public Spaces, no date-a). While it is certainly important that spaces be available for all types of recreational activities, this strat- egy specifically addresses only outdoor public spaces.
2 The connectivity of the street grid can be measured o


ar each other to foster interactions, and updating the space over time as needed (Project for Public Spaces, no date-b).
Indicators:
• L9: Percentage of residents who think the district or county provides access to nature in parks, open spaces, or ga


uld include a sufficient number of public services for resi- dents, such as schools, community health service centers, and libraries. Interspersing these facilities in residential districts contributes to quality of life by maintaining relatively sho


sidents “To which of the following can you walk from your current residence in 10 minutes?” for various types of services, including children’s school and doctors/health clinic. Future surveys could include hospital and other emergency services. Thes


997. The most recent amendments have divided contaminated land into two types, based on the level of soil contamination: More heavily pol- luted areas needing remediation, and less heavily polluted areas that must be registered when new development i


are shut down or relocated elsewhere and as sites are remediated. This indicator will reflect the percentage of sites available for redevelopment each year. An
5 Bacot and O’Dell (2006) suggest a long list of economic and environmental indicators ass


ons
L16 Number of brownfields sites that are available for redevelopment, according to redevelopment plans, as a share of all brownfields sites in the annual inventory
 GL2
   Increase density of residential space and employment opportunities through


l condition (the structure is deteriorating to the point where it might collapse or be vulnerable to a disaster such as a storm or fire, or may become prohibitively expensive to renovate), or vandalism (a vacant site that contains valuable items may


towns) as a means of economic development. The United Kingdom has dozens of independent organizations dedicated to preserving historical sites ranging from railroads to war memorials (Heritage Help, no date).
Real estate developers and building owner


ars.
Table 5.3 summarizes the goal, strategies, and indicators for challenge CL3.
Goal GL6: Reduce Vulnerability to Natural Disasters
Like many coastal areas, the province is vulnerable to several types of natural disasters. With climate change leadi


nstructing an alternative route through a safer area.
Indicators:
• L19: Number of structures in flood-prone areas
• L21: Number of structures in typhoon-prone areas.
• L23: Number of structures in earthquake-prone areas.
– Explanation:Itisimportantt


ts at risk of earthquake L23
Number of structures in seismically unsound areas
damage through mapping.
Strategy SL13: GIS-Based Mapping
L24 Value of assets in earthquake-prone areas
    GIS-based mapping can serve as a source of data for implementing


 current land use planning is considered effective, and if not, why.
Priorities for Implementation of Strategies
Figure 5.1 summarizes three important dimensions: the ease or difficulty of implementation, the relative level of impact, and the rough t


lear that the develop- ment of the automotive industry should rely on the domestic market for private cars. Since that time, automobile production has grown from approximately 2.5 million vehicles in 2004 to over 18 million in 2013 (Statista, 2014).


e to travel by private passenger vehicle. Strate- gies to further this goal are to (1) enhance the competitiveness of bus and rail through improve- ments in service coverage and frequency and (2) promote bicycle-sharing, car-sharing, taxi, and dynami


n road crashes, injuries, and fatalities. Statistics indicate that China’s road fatalities include high percentages of pedes- trians, motorcycle drivers, and users of nonmotorized vehicles, mainly bicycles (Louma and Sivak, 2012). Guangdong Province


transit in lieu of driving, the greater the posi- tive impacts on reduced traffic and parking congestion for the rest of society. In addition, the provision of high-quality public transit increases the region’s attractiveness to people and firms con


l lanes on the approach to signalized intersections so that buses are not waiting behind cars). In addition, enhanced traveler information system can complement and further improve the reliability of bus service. Information tools announcing real-tim


ch of these indicators.
– Data source and availability: This can be measured via survey. The Pingshan survey asked respondents “Do you agree or disagree that public transport in Pingshan New District is frequent (comes often)?” and “goes where you ne


segments of the population, such as the elderly, disabled persons who cannot drive, and tourists. In many cities taxi industries supply an important economic development function, providing impor- tant employment opportunities particularly for immigr


anufacturers, such as Ford, which has Ford2go, have entered the new car-sharing marketplace. Industry analysts expect the worldwide car-sharing market to grow to more than 12 million by 2020, especially as more large companies enter the market (Navig


ng. The best practice right now is for the PRD governments to consider how such ridesharing programs can be complementary to taxi and transit, perhaps through stakeholder participation in the development of regulations. By inviting the taxi and trans


me can be spent sleeping, working, or meeting. By optimizing the connections among modes, overall travel time can be reduced.
Living in a region connected via multimodal linkages will improve quality of life because it gives residents access to a muc


ds are a good proxy for the effectiveness of bus services,
which play a large role in urban transportation in China. Cities and transit agencies would need to identify several key corridors to measure, as well as a period of time during which to meas


.
Implementing an interoperable smart ticketing system is complex. Public transit opera- tors and authorities, financial service providers, and telecommunications operators, among others, need to work together to combine their products on a single ca


vel (Wargelin et al., 2012). There are numerous considerations in implementing a survey: selecting respondents, developing questions, choosing an appropriate technology, conducting a pilot survey to determine whether the methods work, creating a repo


ed practices: Major urban streets within cities, as well as those that serve locations outside of business districts, can be made safer for pedestrians and bicyclists with some physical improvements that reduce conflicts with vehicles. Mehndiratta, L


s to policies and programs that encourage more efficient use of parking resources through a com- bination of supply, demand management, and enforcement. Parking management has under- gone somewhat of a paradigm shift over the past decades. The old pa


conducted as part of the San Francisco pilot, 82 percent of respondents said that it was “somewhat or very easy to pay for parking” once smart meters and pay-by-phone options were available (San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency, 2014). The p


ing satisfaction as it captures whether the overall system
for managing parking is working in ways that meet residents’ needs.
– Data source and availability: The Pingshan survey asked “To what extent is finding
parking for automobiles a problem for


, or contracted out. It should not take long to begin enforcing laws if the laws are in place and the basic infrastructure to pay for parking is already available.
Indicators:
• T11: Number of parking citations issued.
• T12: Percentage of parking ci


, interoperable ticketing within the region to make it easier to use alternative forms of public transit.
ST5 Develop a travel survey that captures inter- and intracity travel flows and mode use.
ST6 Connect pedestrian and bicycle greenways and paths


ies to off-peak hours, which would have a major impact on congestion and emissions. Financial incentives were helpful in persuading receivers to participate in the program; the funding for incentives could be provided through additional tolls. Carrie


arries goods from one location to another (e.g., the trucking company). A shipper has goods to ship (e.g., a factory), and a receiver receives the shipment.
Transportation 75
 76 Quality of Life Indicators and Policy Strategies to Advance Sustainabil


ions on a per-parcel basis, or the amount of curbside space used for deliveries. These data would need to be collected and analyzed for a specific project.
Table 6.2 summarizes the goal, strategies, and indicators for challenge CT2.
Goal GT6: Reduce


ingdom in the 1980s. All trunk road highway projects are subject to mandatory RSAs, and all roads that used RSAs are required to have an ongoing monitoring plan. These requirements are formalized in Highways England’s 2015 Design Manual for Roads and


f each of the strategies along the three dimensions.
As an example of our reasoning, transit improvements are a top priority, given their impor- tance to residents’ preferences, but also because of their importance in improving air quality and reduci


trategies, all based on a strong scien- tific foundation of environmental modeling and credible monitoring and source data. Strate- gies also must include building the human capital to effectively implement and enforce the laws and regulations and gi


al use in major cities will help improve air quality over time (China State Council, 2013). Further, President Xi Jinping and President Barack Obama’s recent announcement at the Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Beijing regarding commitmen


ovince, 2014).2
The magnitude of heavy metal contamination of soil has only recently been publicly documented in Guangdong. In July 2014, the Guangdong Department of Land and Resources disclosed that 28 percent of soil samples collected from various


ality law has been estimated to be no greater than about 25 percent (Tao and Xin, 2014).
2 According to the Ministry of Environmental Protection of the People’s Republic of China Environmental Quality Stan- dards for Surface Water (2002), the water b


s to transparency and applies across the three major environmental problems of water, soil, and air pollution. To establish a credible enforcement regime, heads of polluting firms need to be persuaded that well-trained permit writers and inspectors w


icipalities. One of the primary reasons for poor implementation and enforcement is the misalignment of incen- tives: Pollution “pays” in China. That is, businesses and governments continue to pollute the air, water, and land because they find it in t


ers in violation of their permits and significant environmental benefits can be achieved with well-targeted and well-publicized inspections (Shimstack and Ward, 2005; State of Oregon Department of Environmental Qual- ity, 2004).
Recommended practices


n the newspaper the names of permit writers and inspectors, the facilities they are responsible for inspecting, and the names of the owners of the facilities. In addition, the Environmental Protection Bureau should publish inspection results for each


ts tell citizens what the government is doing to enforce laws and protect public health. Although most U.S. environmental laws were passed over 40 years ago, both state and federal environmental regulators still must actively enforce laws and regulat


and emissions coming from their facilities—and fines must be large enough to cause them to alter their behavior. It is important to note that even if market-based approaches such as emissions or discharge “cap and trade” type approaches were impleme


of inspections by trained inspectors.
SE2 Increase incentives for enforcement.
SE3 Increase incentives for compliance.
Proposed Indicators
E1 Number of facilities inspected annually by trained inspectors as a percentage of the total number
of facilit


ever, most experts agree that ambient water quality monitoring is inadequate for all assess- ment and enforcement activities (Zhang et al., 2010). For this reason, we suggest indicators directly linked to this goal that capture actual ambient water q


es for increasing transparency and accountability, a strategy to empower downstream jurisdictions to press for more stringent compliance could increase pressure on environmental officials at the municipal level but even more so at the provincial leve


onmen- tal Protection were to initiate a Guangdong-wide competition to select the most cost-effective water quality monitoring technologies for both surface and groundwater and then initiate deployment.
Rationale: Water quality monitoring and data ma


lity has improved
E7 Percentage of residents who are dissatisfied with drinking water quality
E8 Number of surface water monitoring stations where Class II water quality standardsa have been met for 12 consecutive months
E9 Number of groundwater well


e of the problem of contaminated current and former industrial sites. Responsibility would be with the director-general of the Environmental Protection Bureau of Guangdong Province for producing an annual list of sites with the name of the facility o


cleanup. However, for all the reasons cited previously, enforcement must be strong and consistent at the municipal and provincial levels. If noncompliance with existing site permits persists, ongoing industrial operations should be shut down until th


y air quality standards mea- sured mostly as average annual concentrations by pollutants (Ministry of Environmental Pro- tection of the People’s Republic of China, 2012).
Environment 95
96 Quality of Life Indicators and Policy Strategies to Advance S


ution. Ground-level ozone, a major constituent of smog, is not directly emitted from vehicles, power plants, and factories, but rather formed through chemical reactions in the atmosphere of sunlight and mixtures of emit- ted pollutants such as NOx, V


ir toxins for health impact research. Zhong et al. (2013) also suggest adding capability to monitor VOCs to address “regional haze and visibility impairment in the region.”
PM2.5 and ozone arise from both mobile and stationary emissions sources. Howe


he region have identified “coal-free” zones, mainly within their central business districts, to reduce residential, commercial, and industrial usage. Expansion to the entire PRD region would significantly increase the effectiveness of this strat- egy


rage in most indus- trialized nations (U.S. Department of Energy, 2012; Grözinger et al., 2014).4 Shenzhen has been considered a frontrunner in China’s green building development (Khanna et al., 2014). One of the major contributors to residential bu


y SE10: Accelerate Removal of Highly Polluting Vehicles Through Incentive Payments
China requires highly polluting older vehicles to have yellow license plates. The State Coun- cil has called for scrapping all of these yellow-tagged vehicles by the e


ill, 2004a). Some programs were even funded by private firms. For example, the oil company Unocal introduced the South Coast Recycled Auto Project that offered $700 to residents in the Los Angeles region for their old vehicles. The company used the p


d along with the scrappage program, although design and stated goals vary (International Transport Forum, 2011). Five of the 13 fleet turnover programs introduced in Europe include carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions thresholds for new car purchases. Ital


ds can effectively control NOx emissions in the near term and yield immediate reduction of PM2.5 emissions, but the China VI standards will be necessary to curb pollution in the long term due to the anticipated expansion of the vehicle fleet. In term


e recommend the removal of high-polluting vehicles as quickly as possible. This is a low-risk strategy with immediate air quality benefits. Phasing out coal use
Environment 103
104 Quality of Life Indicators and Policy Strategies to Advance Sustainab


novation-driven economy with cleaner indus- tries and a growing service sector, they have the opportunity of using stricter enforcement of environmental standards and improved air, water, and soil quality as a means of gaining a com- petitive advanta


for factory workers), housing built by real estate developers (most of which is for sale), housing built in “villages in cities” (which is largely rental), and housing built by the government. Homeownership among urban households is approximately 55


and developers. Local government relies on cash flow from land transfer fees paid by developers of market-rate housing. Land transfer fees are paid up-front by developers to local governments in exchange for the ability to develop a site. In contrast


ution.1 When referring to “middle-class” households, we refer to households earning incomes within the third quintile (41st–60th percentile) of the income distribution.
The goals focus on affordability and supply of housing units for both low- and mi


 for proposals; (2) limit speculation by levying property taxes on homes; and (3) require a certain percentage of affordable units in transit-oriented development.
Challenge CH2: There Is a Lack of Good-Quality Public Rental Housing for Lower-Income


on housing, this second one is a general measure of whether home prices are within reach—regardless of whether the house- hold owns a home or not. The housing price-to-income ratio is the ratio of the median sales price of a housing unit within a ge


he Next 6 Billion Square Meters,” 2013). To coun- teract this trend, it would be helpful for local governments to create incentives for developers to build more affordable rental housing units through competitively awarded requests for propos- als fo


nt.
Further, development specifications for below-market-price housing production requires that the government enforce these stipulations via oversight during the construction period
and (depending on the requirements, such as income eligibility rule


eplacing that revenue source with a modest property tax.
Recommended practices: Most cities in developed countries levy some type of property tax, which is an annual tax on the value of buildings. Property taxes require detailed records about propert


ation: This requires that a property tax be implemented and collected.
– Data source and availability: This would be provided by the agency that is collecting
the tax.
– Frequency: Annual.
Strategy SH3: Require a Certain Percentage of Public Rental H


 tally rather than a count of units built in a specific year.
Table 8.3 summarizes the goal, strategies, and indicators for challenge CH1.
Table 8.3
Housing Goals, Strategies, and Indicators for Challenge CH1 (Middle-Income Affordability)
Goal and St


.
Indicator:
• H6: Among lowest to lower-middle income households, share of household income spent on rent or mortgage.
– Explanation: Of the two potential indicators, this is closer to measuring the important
underlying question of what households a


).
Land readjustment has also been successfully used in China in several areas. In Pujiang (Zhejiang Province), an area of about 40,000 square meters called the Xiajizhai plot was sub- ject to land readjustment after the 132 households applied to the


re 33 square meters (Kojima, 2013). Many micro-apartments that have been built in North America are as small as 100 square feet (9.3 square meters), and have some shared facilities, such as kitchens (Common Ground, 2012).
With regard to lower-cost co


on: This indicator directly measures whether the voucher program is succeed-
ing in lowering the housing burden on low-income households.
– Data source and availability: This should be available through the agency that admin- isters the voucher progr


 both before it is occupied, as well as at some regu-
lar frequency afterward.
– Frequency: Data should be collected annually, but post-residency inspections could
happen less frequently.
Table 8.4 summarizes the goal, strategies, and indicators for


using Strategies
Housing 121
 SH3: Affordable TOD units SH7: Enforce standards
SH6: Housing vouchers
SH1: Affordable units through RFPs
SH5: Low-cost rental units
SH4: Land readjustment
SH2: Property taxes
  Easier
Ease of implementation
Harder
RAND


the operation of smaller banks and other financial institutions in Guangdong. The key challenge is to remove these barriers while working within
 123
124 Quality of Life Indicators and Policy Strategies to Advance Sustainability in the Pearl River De


the past three years. The PRD’s export-oriented growth model has been hurt by lower demand from the global market and competition from lower-cost producers in other countries. However, the growth in motor vehicle manufacturing, telecommunications equ