uicides as a proxy for state-level firearm prevalence, and other state-level factors. The authors found that waiting periods were associated with a suggestive negative effect on homicides. Using data over a longer time frame (1990 to 2013), linear mo


ds 177
     Evidence for this relationship is
moderate.
 Firearm homicides. We identified five qualifying studies that examined the effects of waiting periods on firearm homicide rates, but we discount the evidence provided by one (Ludwig and Cook, 2


se laws may be poor indicators of their true effects. In addition, the model did not adjust for clustered standard errors. Together, these shortcomings suggest that the model results may not accurately describe the true effects of waiting periods.
Us


 waiting-period law
increasing the incidence of mass shoot-
ings. However, estimates in the same
model also showed a suggestive effect
of waiting-period length on decreasing
the incidence of mass shootings, which
complicates interpretation of the ove


. Because Glaeser and Glendon (1998) separately estimated the effects of waiting periods for those with and without a prior arrest history, we do not include effect sizes for this study in the figure.
Figure 10.4
Incidence Rate Ratios Associated with


mphis, Tennessee, Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of the Treasury, July 2002.
Cook, P. J., and Jens Ludwig, “The Effect of the Brady Act on Gun Violence,” in B. Harcourt, ed., Guns, Crime, and Punishment in America, New York: New York University Pr


he United States: The Importance of Attending to Method in Understanding Population-Level Disparities in the Burden of Suicide,” Annual Review of Public Health, Vol. 33, 2012, pp. 393–408.
Miller, M., D. Hemenway, and D. Azrael, “Firearms and Suicide


r before being permitted to operate one. However, detrac- tors of the laws suggest that such regulations create unwarranted costs and barriers to firearm ownership and that such ownership should not be made conditional on train- ing (Cole, 2014).
Fir


ining (in which 80 percent of training courses covered proper gun storage) were significantly more likely to store their fire- arms loaded and unlocked compared with gun owners who had not received formal training; however, the most common source of


orage practices might be more likely to change the behavior of gun owners than are noncredible messengers who promote safe storage.
More research is needed to understand the relationship between safety training and changes in firearm owners’ safety b


e sort of firearm train- ing, either in a formal course or through some other setting, such as through military service. This includes jurisdictions with “may-issue”9 or “shall-issue” concealed-carry laws.10 See Chapter Eighteen for further informati


mponent effect of these
laws. Considering the methodologi-
cal concerns with this single study, we
find inconclusive evidence for the effect of firearm safety training requirements on total homicides.
Firearm safety training requirements have
  uncer


ovide standard errors, test statistics, or exact p-values, so we do not interpret this evidence for this review.
Firearm Safety Training Requirements 191
 192 The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of U.S.


 There is no federal law requiring individuals to report lost or stolen firearms.
In 2018, federally licensed firearm dealers reported 14,738 firearms (includ- ing pistols, rifles, shotguns, revolvers, and machine guns) as lost or stolen from their p


able to prohibited possessors or to individuals seeking to obtain firearms for criminal purposes. Thus, to estimate how requirements for reporting lost or stolen firearms affect such outcomes as violent crime, we might first examine to what extent su


.4
Outcomes Without Studies Examining the Effects of Lost or Stolen Firearm Reporting Requirements
We did not identify any research that met our inclusion criteria and examined the relationship between required reporting of lost or stolen firearms an


ence, undated-e).
There is also no federal firearm registration system, which we define as a record- keeping system controlled by a government agency that both stores the names of current owners of each firearm of a specific class and requires that t


rohibited pos- sessors. For instance, California, which has a firearm registration system, passed Proposition 63 in 2016. The law, among other things, requires courts to search Cali- fornia’s centralized records of firearm sales and transfers wheneve


umbia, all private sales are completed through dealers, who maintain records of all sales.7 Furthermore, seven states require licensed dealers to maintain records of handgun sales,8 and three states require private sellers to do so.9
Some states have


nt agency. Four of these states require records of all sales to be transmitted, includ- ing those by licensed dealers and private sellers.11 Similarly, the District of Columbia’s registration requirement gives law enforcement access to all sales reco


ts of U.S. Gun Policies
ies for firearm prevalence. Models showed a large and significant negative relation- ship between registration laws and NICS background checks for firearm purchases. However, insufficient information was provided in the paper


ational Rifle Association, Institute for Legislative Action, “New Zealand Experience Further Proves Registration Facilitates Confiscations,” July 8, 2019b.
Steidley, Trent, and Martin T. Kosla, “Toward a Status Anxiety Theory of Macro-Level Firearm D


as semiautomatic firearms that have at least two of a designated list of features (27 C.F.R. 478.11). In contrast, fully automatic weapons (i.e., machine guns) can produce continuous fire by a single trigger function without manual reloading, and th


percent) involved an assault weapon or high- capacity magazine, resulting in 155 percent more injuries and 47 percent more fatali- ties compared with other incidents (Everytown for Gun Safety Support Fund, 2017b). In a 2018 update to the same analysi


nerating market effects for ancillary gun companies that produce or sell certain replacement parts, accessories, or specialized magazines and precision barrels used primarily for sport shooting.
Overall, the effects of these policies will depend larg


tate law and to be therefore banned.4 For exam- ple, the law states that a “semiautomatic, centerfire rifle that has the capacity to accept a detachable magazine” is an assault weapon if it also contains any of the following fea- tures: “(A) a pistol


high-capacity magazines for pistols.14 The rest ban high- capacity magazines for all firearms,15 although there are differences in definition here too. California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, and the District


ed how bans on high-capacity maga- zines affect firearm homicide rates (Moody and Marvell, 2018b). Using a log-linear model with two-way fixed effects, the authors used a hybrid policy specification to esti- mate the joint effect of law passage on th


e of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of U.S. Gun Policies
Effects on Mass Shootings
Research Synthesis Findings
We identified four studies that met our inclusion criteria and estimated the effects of state or fede


hether a mass shooting occurred in a given state-year. In con- trast to Gius (2015c), Luca, Malhotra, and Poliquin (2016) did not control for the
18 The author found a large and statistically significant association between implementation of the fede


sal effect estimates.
Finally, Gius (2018) employed a model similar to that of Gius (2015c) to evalu- ate whether federal or state assault weapon bans influence school shooting fatalities or injuries, controlling for background check laws, state-leve


 bans have
uncertain
effects on
mass shootings.
      Evidence for this relationship is
inconclusive.
 Bans on the Sale of Assault Weapons and High-Capacity Magazines 215
Gorry, and Wade (2016) found that the bans significantly reduced the annual inc


t sizes of interest, so we do not present them in a figure.
216 The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of U.S. Gun Policies
Conclusions
One study provided some evidence that
secondary-market prices of assa


onomics and Statistics, Vol. 93, No. 1, 2011,
pp. 113–125.
Cox, D. R., and E. J. Snell, Analysis of Binary Data, 2nd ed., New York: Chapman and Hall, 1989.
Everytown for Gun Safety Support Fund, “Mass Shootings in the United States: 2009–2016,” April


Markets and Gun Violence 1994–2003, Washington, D.C.: National Institute of Justice, 2004.
Koper, Christopher S., and Jeffrey A. Roth, “The Impact of the 1994 Federal Assault Weapon Ban on Gun Violence Outcomes: An Assessment of Multiple Outcome Meas


turers are exempt from the federal restrictions.
Since 1968, several state laws have aimed to extend or clarify design and safety requirements on all guns in circulation in the United States, not just imported guns. Specifically, lawmakers have targe


nnect mechanism, which prevents a semiautomatic pistol with a detachable magazine from firing when there is no magazine in the pistol. Finally, some states create a roster of approved handguns that satisfy the state’s safety and design standards. In


s of inexpen- sive handguns were more likely than purchasers of other handguns to be charged with new crimes after handgun purchase.
These studies suggest that small and inexpensive handguns are disproportion- ately preferred by those engaged in crim


s, or hunting and recreation. Although handguns are commonly used in suicides (Hanlon et al., 2019) and individuals who die by suicide are more likely than the general population to have purchased a hand- gun in the previous three years (Grassel et a


s filed a class-action suit alleging that the guns can fire without being triggered (Cohn, 2018). The case ultimately was settled.
 The specifics of which weapons or weapon features are prohibited by a particu- lar ban may be key to understanding the


Ann. § 624.712; 9 N.Y. CRR 482.6.
6 Calif. Penal Code § 32015; Md. Code, Pub. Safety, § 5-404; Mass. Gen. Laws Ch. 140 § 1313/4; 24 D.C. MR § 2323.
7 Calif. Ann. Penal Code §§ 31910, 16900; Mass. Gen. Laws Ch. 140, § 123; 9 N.Y. CRR 482.5.
Bans on Lo


with the low-quality handgun bans examined in Rosengart et al. (2005).
8 Calif. Penal Code § 31910.
9 Hawaii and the District of Columbia. See Hawaii Rev. Stat. § 134-15(a); D.C. Code Ann. § 7-2505.04(b).
 Figure 15.1
Incidence Rate Ratios Associated


 than five observations per estimated parameter, there is a substantial likelihood that the model was overfit. Thus, in keeping with our review methodology, we discount the results of this study.
Rosengart et al. (2005) used data from 1979 to 1998 to


n the number of states that changed the bans during the study time frame, but it is likely that only one state (California) changed its low-quality handgun law over this period. Thus, the effect of these laws may not have been well identified, and th


ct fire- arm homicides.
Effects on the Gun Industry
Research Synthesis Findings
We identified one study that met our inclusion criteria and assessed how bans on low-quality handguns affect gun industry outcomes. Using a first-differences model, Webst


.
Cook, Philip J., “The Saturday Night Special: An Assessment of Alternative Definitions from a Policy Perspective,” Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, Vol. 72, No. 4, 1981, pp. 1735–1745.
Funk, T. Markus, “Gun Control and Economic Discriminati


of October 1, 2019: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2685.html
Vernick, Jon S., Daniel W. Webster, and Lisa M. Hepburn, “Effects of Maryland’s Law Banning Saturday Night Special Handguns on Crime Guns,” Injury Prevention, Vol. 5, No. 4, 1


ations individuals who own guns can use and carry their firearms. Of the 18 policy classes included in this review, five operate by affecting the behaviors of gun owners. Each is reviewed in the subsequent chapters in Part D, as follows:
• stand-your


l documented, but several data sources do exist (Kleck, 2018; Hemenway and Solnick, 2015b; National Research Council, 2004; see also RAND Corporation, 2018, Chapter Twenty-Three). Ideally, analyses of the effects of stand-your-ground laws on defensiv


assed similar laws.3 Eight states have expanded castle doctrine to
1 Standard castle doctrine states that a person in his or her own home does not have a duty to retreat prior to using force, including deadly force, in self-defense.
2 Fla. Stat. Ann.


diate family
10 For example, Ala. Code § 13-A-3-23 (kidnapping; assault; burglary; robbery; forcible rape; forcible sodomy; “using or about to use physical force against an owner, employee, or other person authorized to be on business property when t


and Wisconsin. See Ia. Code Ann. § 704.1; Kan. Stat. Ann. §§ 21-5222, 5223, 5230; Tenn. Ann. Code § 39-11-611; Wisc. Stat. Ann. § 939.48.
13 W. Va. Ann. Code § 55-7-22.
14 N.D. Ann. Code § 12.1-05-07.
 member.15 In Wisconsin, the law applies in an in


as a proxy for firearm ownership (Wallace, 2014). However, without simultane- ously examining firearm or total suicide rates, this outcome is difficult to interpret as providing a causal effect of stand-your-ground laws, so the study did not meet ou


m 2000 to 2010 to estimate the laws’ effects on homicide rates. The authors defined stand-your-ground laws using a binary variable equal to one for polices that “remove the duty to retreat in some place outside the home” (Cheng and Hoekstra, 2013, p.


and castle doctrine to apply outside the home—we do not count this study as part of the evidence base for the effects of stand-your-ground laws.
Stand-Your-Ground Laws 241
 242 The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on t


sib, Kostandini, and Jordan (2018) estimated the effects of stand-your- ground laws on per capita rates of total firearm-related deaths, excluding deaths by suicide.22 Based on mortality data from 1999 to 2013, and using a state and year fixed- effec


4 states that passed a stand-your-ground law between 2005 and 2007, the authors used the synthetic control method approach to generate a weighted combination of control states (i.e., a “synthetic control”) that approximated the pre-law firearm homici


13) found that these
laws significantly increase homicide
Stand-Your-Ground Laws 245
    rates, but they have uncertain effects on robbery, aggravated assault, and bur- glary rates. McClellan and Tekin (2017) also found significant increases in total


thors found that stand-your-ground laws were associated with a statisti- cally significant decline in the likelihood of a public shooting incident. However, their use of a linear model to predict a dichotomous (and rare) outcome likely violated model


nt for changes in policing and incarceration rates, and contemporaneous crime rates. Using negative binomial regression models, they found stand-your-ground laws to be associated with increases in justifiable homicide, ranging from an uncertain 28-pe


gical reasons. Given the methodological quality of these studies, we consider these findings inconclusive evidence for the effect of stand-your-ground laws on defensive gun use.
Effects on the Gun Industry
Research Synthesis Findings
One study (Walla


Nelson, Linear Probability, Logit, and Probit Models, Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage Publications, 1984.
Blau, Benjamin M., Devon H. Gorry, and Chip Wade, “Guns, Laws, and Public Shootings in the United States,” Applied Economics, Vol. 48, No. 49, 2016,


ip?” Justice Policy Journal, Vol. 11, No. 2, Fall 2014.
Webster, D., C. K. Crifasi, and J. S. Vernick, “Effects of the Repeal of Missouri’s Handgun Purchaser Licensing Law on Homicides,” Journal of Urban Health, Vol. 91, No. 2, 2014, pp. 293–302.
CHA


Policies
nationwide, two-thirds of which involved a firearm (Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, 2016). Young adults between ages 18 and 21 have among the highest rates of violent offending of any age group (Loeber and Stallings, 2


Azrael and Miller, 2016).
In the absence of strong causal models, however, alternative explanations remain plausible. If, for instance, those most determined to kill themselves leave a weapon unsecured so that it will be available for use when they a


understood by gun owners to account for the apparent effects of these laws. If a person is unaware of a law, it is difficult to associate her or his behavior with that law. It may be, however, that knowledge of the law is not the key driver of impro


states imposing criminal liability for negligent storage allow for exceptions or defenses.8 The most common is when the gun has been stored in a locked
3 Mass. Gen. Laws Ch. 140, § 131L.
4 California, Minnesota, New York, and the District of Columbia


N.C. Gen. Stat. Ann. § 14-315.1; R.I. Gen. Laws Ann. § 11-47-60.1; Tex. Penal Code Ann. § 46.13.
11 Calif. Penal Code § 25105; Conn. Gen. Stat. Ann. § 29-37i; Hawaii Rev. Stat. § 134-10.5; N.H. Rev. Stat. Ann. § 650-C:1; R.I. Gen. Laws Ann. § 11-47-6


6 are also exceptions.
In addition to the main distinctions among the CAP laws already discussed, another difference is how they define minors. In the majority of states, it is an offense to provide a firearm to an individual under age 18.27 In Texas


ligent storage a felony. In four such jurisdictions, these factors bump the crime from a misdemeanor to a felony,33 and in the other four, there is no misdemeanor offense, only these felonies.34 Texas makes clear that regardless of what additional fa


idence on the Effects of U.S. Gun Policies
10.8-percent reduction in firearm suicides; in addition, they found uncertain effects on nonfirearm suicides. In this age group, the post-policy firearm suicide rate was 89 per- cent of the rate expected wit


 likely the result of suicide attempts. Therefore, DeSimone, Markowitz, and Xu (2013) should be understood to evaluate the effects of CAP laws on nonfatal firearm injuries resulting from a combination of suicide attempts and self-inflicted uninten-
3


ility models weighted by state population and adjusting for a large set of state-level time- varying covariates, state fixed effects, national trends, and state-specific linear trends, the authors found that the estimated associations between CAP law


rearm suicides
among those aged 19 or younger. Using
data on hospitalizations for self-inflicted
firearm injuries, DeSimone, Markowitz,
and Xu (2013) found significant effects
suggesting that CAP laws reduce such
injuries among those aged 17 or young


data. The authors examined information in 11 states between 1988 and 2003 and employed fixed effects for state and year in their statistical models (along with other state- and hospital-level covariates). They found that CAP laws based on negligent s


th the CAP laws examined in these studies.
Figure 17.2
Incidence Rate Ratios Associated with the Effect of Child-Access Prevention Laws on Violent Crime
NOTE: IRR values marked with blue squares indicate that methodological concerns are discussed in


ntional fire- arm deaths among those aged 14 or younger. In addition, they showed that this effect was not consistent across all states that have CAP laws. Significant reductions in such deaths were observed in states with felony CAP laws, and in sta


ge alone or on either negligent storage or reckless provision had uncertain effects on unintentional firearm injuries in children aged 18 or younger in the 11 states that were part of the NIS, but they did find a statistically significant effect of t


ied no significant methodological concerns. See Appendix B for details.
Child-Access Prevention Laws 267
      268 The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of U.S. Gun Policies
Conclusions
We identified six


li- ties, injuries, and the incidence of multiple-victim public shootings, which the author defined as events unrelated to other criminal activity in which two or more people were killed or wounded in a public location. The analysis covered 1977 to 1


fying study of
the effect of CAP laws on mass shoot-
ings and one qualifying study of the
effect of CAP laws on school shoot-
ings. Lott (2003) found uncertain
effects for these laws on mass shooting
casualties and mass shooting incidents,
and Anders


 was likely overfit. We therefore excluded those results from our synthesis.
272 The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of U.S. Gun Policies
Outcomes Without Studies Examining the Effects of Child-Access P


nfatal Injury Reports, 2000–2017,” WISQARS database, Atlanta, Ga., January 18, 2019b. As of July 26, 2019:
https://webappa.cdc.gov/sasweb/ncipc/nfirates.html
Conner, Andrew, Deborah Azrael, and Matthew Miller, “Suicide Case-Fatality Rates in the Unit


 New Mexico Juveniles’ Possession of Firearms, Albuquerque, N.M.: New Mexico Criminal Justice Statistical Analysis Center, Working Paper 27, 1998.
Loeber, R., and R. Stallings, “Modeling the Impact of Interventions on Local Indicators of Offending, V


 Ownership in Veterans Entering Residential PTSD Treatment: Associations with Suicide Ideation, Attempts, and Combat Exposure,” Psychiatry Research, Vol. 229, No. 1–2, 2015, pp. 220–224.
Spicer, R. S., and T. R. Miller, “Suicide Acts in 8 States: Inc


t about which laws are most likely to do so. Permitless-carry and shall-issue laws that make it easier for citizens to carry concealed weapons could increase the number of people carrying guns. The increased prevalence of concealed weapons could lead


cealed-carry permits related to changes in various types of violent crime (Kovandzic and Marvell, 2003). The authors analyzed data from 58 Florida counties spanning 1980–2000, providing coverage of the period before and after the passage of Florida’s


h Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wyoming. See Alaska Stat. § 11.61.220; Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-3112; Ark. App. 488 (via case law: Taff v. State, 2018); Ida. Code Ann. § 18-3302 (applies only out- side cities); Kan. Stat. A


e laws (USA Carry, 2017).
Effects on Suicide
Research Synthesis Findings
We identified three studies that met our inclusion criteria and examined the effect of concealed-carry laws on suicide; no studies examined the effects of permitless-carry laws


cide rates. However, relative to laws that prohibited concealed carry,5 both may-issue and shall-issue laws were associated with significant increases in nonfirearm suicide rates.
Figure 18.1 displays the incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and CIs associat


Two important reviews of the scientific literature on gun policy effects—one by the National Research Council (NRC), a part of the National Academy of Sciences (NRC, 2004), and one by the Community Preventive Services Task Force, established by the U


ted in Table 18.1, the NRC (2004) panel, with one member dissenting, concluded:
Some studies find that right-to-carry laws reduce violent crime, others find that the effects are negligible, and still others find that such laws increase violent crime.


a sets used by Lott (1998b, 2000) and by Plassmann and Whitley (2003), and Plassmann subsequently acknowledged these errors to the NRC (NRC, 2004, p. 136). Correction of these errors elimi- nated many of the significant effects reported by Plassmann


esearch Evidence on the Effects of U.S. Gun Policies
not comparable with later data, according to the National Archive of Criminal Jus- tice Data (undated). Nevertheless, several analyses have continued to use county-level crime data to evaluate law


dy et al. (2014) suggested that shall-issue laws significantly reduced the trends in rape and murder rates. They found no significant association between shall-issue laws and either assault or robbery. The fact that their model predicted a given outc


rrections for serial correlation in the data used, without which incorrect claims of statistical significance would be expected to proliferate (Schell, Griffin, and Morral, 2018; Aneja, Donohue, and Zhang, 2014; Helland and Tabarrok, 2004).
State-Lev


e (see Figure 18.3). However, as with Lott (2000), the authors did not statistically adjust for serial correlation in the panel data, and the model’s ratio of estimated parameters to observations was less than one to ten, mean- ing the model may have


lly significant might not be after correcting these analyses (Schell, Griffin, and Morral, 2018; Aneja, Donohue, and Zhang, 2014; Helland and Tabarrok, 2004).
DeSimone, Markowitz, and Xu (2013) evaluated the effects of child-access pre- vention laws


hall-issue states. Relative to states with shall-issue laws, states with more-restrictive firearm-carry policies had rates of firearm homicide that were 11 percent higher (see Figure 18.3). However, this model did not statistically adjust for the kno


ounty-level analyses, that their specification improved model fit over that of Aneja, Donohue, and Zhang (2014). They also found that the individual states’ trends were jointly significant, which they took as evidence supporting the need for their in


designed to estimate the distribution of treatment effects under the assumption that laws have no real effect. They concluded that, after the seventh year post-implementation, states with shall- issue laws had significantly elevated rates of violent


ars of data for six states after 1998, because the CDC began suppressing homicide counts below ten in that year. Nevertheless, the authors report similar results from sensitivity analyses using a different data source, the Supplementary Homicide Repo


stard, 2001; Crifasi, Pollack, and Webster, 2016). Mustard (2001) preferred a spline model, estimating the change in trends before versus after implementation of shall-issue laws for the outcome of felonious police deaths per capita or per full-time


ncreases in crime com- pared with decreases. However, this study had an unfavorable ratio of model covariates to observations (less than one to ten), meaning the model may have been overfit, and thus its estimates and CIs may be unreliable indicators


on violent crime and murder rates. Analyzing data over a partially overlapping period, from 1976 to 1998, and using a Poisson model that controlled for state and year fixed effects, state-specific linear trends, and time-varying state covari- ates, L


del comparison techniques, Strnad (2007) reanalyzed models of the effects of shall- issue laws from Donohue (2004). In contrast to the approach of Donohue (2004) and many others, Strnad (2007) did not assess the evidence for or against shall-issue la


orting dummy-coded law effects published since the NRC (2004) review of gun policy effects. For a summary of effects reported for all studies discussed in this chapter, see Appendix B. IRR values marked with green circles indicate that we identified


study that included four more years of data found uncertain effects of the law in seven of eight evaluated years, with a single significant negative effect in the seventh year (Moody and Marvell, 2018a). La Valle and Glover (2012) found that shall-is


which included data after 2000, found largely uncertain effects of shall-issue laws on robberies (Moody and Marvell, 2018a; Moody et al., 2014; Kendall and Tamura, 2010; Helland and Tabarrok, 2004; Plassmann and Whitley, 2003). Therefore, we conclud


 it could be argued that these two
studies of the effect of these laws on all
violent crimes should not suffice to sug-
gest that there is more than inconclusive
evidence for such an effect. However, because analyses on all violent crimes may have gr


e law, unintentional firearm injuries among those aged 18 or older were more than twice as frequent as would be expected without the law, which would be extraordinary if true. However, the estimated effects of shall-issue laws in this study were base


e other four studies adopted slightly different definitions for mass shooting. Lott (2003) examined multiple-victim public shootings, which the author defined as events unrelated to other criminal activity in which two or more people were killed or w


be poor indicators of their true effects.
Examining a partially overlapping but later period (1989–2014), Luca, Malhotra, and Poliquin (2016) used a linear probability model to estimate the impact of shall- issue concealed-carry laws on a binary indi


ce, the authors found that concealed- carry laws had an uncertain relationship with the number of school shooting victims (see Figure 18.5). Given the relatively rare nature of this outcome, these analyses may have been underpowered to detect an effe


Guns & Ammo magazine as a proxy for gun ownership. This study identified uncertain effects of these laws on gun ownership.
Shall-issue concealed-carry laws have
 uncertain
effects on
mass shootings.
Evidence for this relationship is
inconclusive.
 30


uncertain effect of shall-issue concealed-
carry laws on gun ownership proxy out-
comes. One study found that allowing
permitless carry in Arizona was cor-
related with significant increases in
NICS background checks relative to the
national trend.


n M., Devon H. Gorry, and Chip Wade, “Guns, Laws, and Public Shootings in the United States,” Applied Economics, Vol. 48, No. 49, 2016, pp. 4732–4746.
Bronars, Stephen G., and John R. Lott, Jr., “Criminal Deterrence, Geographic Spillovers, and the Ri


 Change,” Statistics in Medicine, Vol. 27, No. 24, 2008, pp. 5005–5025.
Ginwalla, Rashna, Peter Rhee, Randall Friese, Donald J. Green, Lynn Gries, Bellal Joseph, Narong Kulvatunyou, Dafney Lubin, Terence O’Keeffe, Gary Vercruysse, Julie Wynne, and An


012, pp. 580–601.
Loftin, Colin, David McDowall, and Matthew D. Fetzer, “A Comparison of SHR and Vital Statistics Homicide Estimates for U.S. Cities,” Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, Vol. 24, No. 1, 2008, pp. 4–17.
Lott, John R., Jr., “The


ematic Measurement Error with State-Level Crime Data: Evidence from the ‘More Guns Less Crime’ Debate,” Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, Vol. 42, No. 2, May 2005, pp. 187–210.
Moody, Carlisle E., “Testing for the Effects of Concealed Wea


nal Justice, Vol. 25, No. 1, 2009, pp. 67–88.
Rosengart, M., P. Cummings, A. Nathens, P. Heagerty, R. Maier, and F. Rivara, “An Evaluation of State Firearm Regulations and Homicide and Suicide Death Rates,” Injury Prevention, Vol. 11, No. 2, 2005, pp


aws prohibit the possession of firearms in federal facilities, other than federal court facilities, except for hunting or other lawful purposes (18 U.S.C. 930). Similarly, firearms are prohibited on property belonging to the U.S. Department of Vetera


rences in how mass shootings are defined—the latter study restricts analysis to mass public shootings—there also appears to be some disagreement about how gun-free zones are classified.
To evaluate the effects of gun-free zones, the ideal data would


83.1; Wash. Rev. Code Ann. § 9.41.300; W. Va. Code § 61-7-11a; Wisc. Stat. Ann. § 175.60; Wyo. Stat. § 6-5-209.
3 For example, Colorado’s restriction concerns carrying concealed weapons into public buildings guarded by security personnel (Colo. Rev.


Mis- souri, prohibit concealed carry but allow open carry. These laws also have caveats, which, like Kentucky, relate to trying to keep the firearm regulations restricted to alcohol-centric restaurants or areas of restaurants (Miss. Code Ann. § 45-9


blic Shootings Keep Occurring in Gun-Free Zones: 94% of Attacks Since 1950,” June 15, 2018a.
Everytown for Gun Safety Support Fund, “Mass Shootings in the United States: 2009–2016,” April 11, 2017b. As of May 3, 2017: http://everytownresearch.org/rep


(q)(3)(B)(ii), (iii)). State and local laws and school district policies often further restrict whether law enforcement officers, properly licensed teachers, or others may carry firearms at primary and secondary schools.
Those who argue in favor of a


ince the intro- duction of federal regulations related to guns on school property, rates of students car- rying weapons in general and to school have decreased. In 1993, 22 percent of students in grades 9–12 carried a weapon, such as a gun or knife,


ch an experiment would be the low base rate of gun violence experienced by schools in the United States. Thus, it may be difficult to detect the effects of these policies unless many schools were included in the experiment over what might be several


of trustees of the school district or governing body of a charter school may appoint one marshal for every 200 students or for each building of the campus, subject to various other rules.3 In distressed rural counties in Tennessee, schools may imple


 on School Safety, Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Education, U.S. Department of Justice, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and U.S. Department of Homeland Security, December 18, 2018.
Fowler, Katherine A., Linda L. Dahlberg, Tadesse


in the United States. In this report, we have attempted to pro- vide a rigorous and balanced assessment of what current scientific knowledge can tell the public and policymakers about the true effects of many gun policies that are frequently discusse


 knowable do not supersede questions of individual rights or Second Amendment rights. Both should be central considerations in policymaking.
Facts have never dictated policy, but they can inform it. The relevance of research to inform gun policy has


- ods. Our finding of supportive evidence of an effect is limited to cases for which at least three studies not compromised by serious methodological weaknesses found suggestive or significant effects in the same direction, and the effect was found i


ws
      êL
 êM
  êS
  I
   I
    I
 êL
  I
  Stand-Your-Ground Laws
   I
I
    éM
 éS
  I
 I
    Bans on Low-Quality Handguns
        I
  I
      I
   I
            Bans on the Sale of Assault Weapons and High-Capacity Magazines
            I


conclusive; L = limited; M = moderate; S = supportive. When we identified no studies meeting eligibility criteria, cells are blank.é= the policy We concluded that there is limited evidence that licensing and permitting requirements decrease total su


rm Sales Reporting, Recording, and Registration Requirements
    Lost or Stolen Firearm Reporting Requirements
    Firearm Safety Training Requirements
    Waiting Periods
    Licensing and Permitting Requirements
    Background Checks
  Extreme Risk


background checks or waiting periods), or they are designed to affect a relatively small proportion of gun owners (e.g., prohibitions that target the mentally ill or domestic violence offenders). Thus, the other laws generally concern either the smal


are effects too large to be explained by justifiable homicides. Consider, for instance, that there were a combined 2,201 firearm homi- cides in 2017 in Florida and Texas, two states with stand-your-ground laws (Centers for Disease Control and Prevent


-a). In this context, the fact that there is now moderate evidence that domestic violence restrain- ing orders and their associated prohibitions against gun ownership reduce total and firearm-related intimate partner homicides is noteworthy.
• Recomm


a; Owens, Horrocks, and House, 2002; Sakinofsky, 2000). We also found limited evidence that permit-to-purchase requirements, which often include a waiting period as part of the permitting process, reduce total and fire- arm suicides among adults.
Con


es involve sharing data on all prohibited possessors with NICS.
Conclusion 8. There is limited evidence that shall-issue, or right-to-carry, laws increase violent crime rates.
There has been more research on shall-issue laws than on all the other pol


render laws; extreme risk protection orders, or “red-flag” laws; firearm safety training requirements; firearm sales reporting, record- ing, and registration requirements; bans on low-quality handguns; and permitless- carry laws.
Why Don’t We Know Mo


 an elevated risk of firearm homicide for members of the household. This finding was viewed by some as a one-sided attempt to manipu- late the gun policy debate.
In an effort led by the National Rifle Association (Cagle and Martinez, 2004), a suffici


for decisions about firearms and violence, the federal government needs to support a systematic program of data collection and research that specifically addresses that issue” (p. 3). The federal government’s support for research on gun violence prev


he lack of research in this area stems, to some extent, from difficulties defining and measuring legal defensive gun use. In some—perhaps most—such cases, guns may contribute to an individual’s self-defense by deterring crimes that would otherwise oc


data on gun ownership and availability and on guns in legal and illegal markets severely limits the quality of existing research.
There are no regularly collected data that describe gun ownership or use at the state level since the CDC suspended its


lishes aggregate statistics on its gun tracing program, but case-level details about the crimes that the guns were involved in, how they were acquired, and other key details are omit- ted from these reports. Although some researchers have been able t


ited States than has been available through the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program. Whereas the FBI system collects summary or aggregate statistics on serious violent and property crimes reported to law enforcement agencies, NIBRS was designed to


2017b). BJS is planning to expand the survey panel in order to generate reliable esti- mates for 22 states that account for 79 percent of the U.S. population. In addition, the bureau has published model-based state estimates for some types of crime o


help develop a data infrastructure for nonfatal firearm injury surveillance is not unprecedented. In 1994, the CDC provided funding for seven states to develop, implement, and evaluate systems; New York City and Cali- fornia also invested in firearm


in many discoveries of effects that reject the null hypothesis that the policy had no effect when, in fact, under proper inferential procedures, the discoveries would be consistent with the law having no effect (or a small effect in the opposite dire


information on laws not yet incorporated into the database. With such help, we hope to make the database a resource beneficial to all analysts.
• Recommendation 16. Researchers, reviewers, academics, and science reporters should expect new analyses o


, Vol. 177, No. 1, 2016, pp. 124–126.
Azrael, Deborah, Lisa Hepburn, David Hemenway, and Matthew Miller, “The Stock and Flow of U.S. Firearms: Results from the 2015 National Firearms Survey,” Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences, Vo


 Notes from Four Decades in the Trenches,” Crime and Justice, Vol. 42, No. 1, 2013, pp. 19–73.
Cook, Philip J., and Anthony A. Braga, “Comprehensive Firearms Tracing: Strategic and Investigative Uses of New Data on Firearms Markets,” Arizona Law Revi


kets and Gun Violence 1994–2003, Washington, D.C.: National Institute of Justice, 2004.
Lewiecki, E. M., and S. A. Miller, “Suicide, Guns, and Public Policy,” American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 103, No. 1, 2013, pp. 27–31.
Summary and Conclusion


 Surveillance,” American Journal of Preventive Medicine, Vol. 15, No. 3, Supp. 1, 1998, pp. 113–119.
Schell, Terry L., Beth Ann Griffin, and Andrew R. Morral, Evaluating Methods to Estimate the Effect of State Laws on Firearm Deaths: A Simulation Stu


which we define as a recordkeeping system controlled by a government agency that (1) stores the names of current owners of each firearm of a specific class and (2) requires that these records are updated after a firearm is transferred to a new owner.


yntheses of the 13 original gun policies as separate chapters in relatively random order. For this updated edition, we reorganized the chapters to group together policies that are related to each other based on the mechanism by which they are designe


usion in our review and our assessment of their methodological quality were appropriate. This reassessment led to several changes.
In this updated edition, we excluded two of the studies assessed in our original review: Duggan, Hjalmarsson, and Jacob


he study did not have strictly longitudinal hospital-level data, this was not an adequate reason for us to fully lessen our confidence in these findings. Thus, in our updated review, this study’s estimates of the effect of child-access prevention law


violent crime:
– original: limited evidence for decreasing violent crime and total homicides
– revised: inconclusive evidence for the effect on violent crime and total homi-
cides
Changes from the First Edition of This Report 361
362 The Science of G


 manufacturers or retailers, and firearm purchases
• firearm sales reporting, recording, and registration requirements: inconclusive evidence for the effect on firearm purchases
• child-access prevention laws: inconclusive evidence for the effect on


vidence for total and firearm suicides
3 Inconclusive evidence for total and firearm suicides
1 Inconclusive evidence for total and firearm suicides
0 No studies
1 Inconclusive evidence for total and firearm suicides
4 Inconclusive evidence for total


ides, robberies, assaults, and rapes
3 Limited evidence for decreasing violent crime; inconclusive evidence for total and firearm homicides
6 Inconclusive evidence for total homicides, firearm homicides, robberies, assaults, and rapes; moderate evide


 Moderate evidence for increasing total homicides; supportive evidence for increasing firearm homicides; inconclusive evidence for robberies and assaults
4 Limited evidence for decreasing assaults; inconclusive evidence for violent crime, firearm hom


 on the Effects of U.S. Gun Policies
Table A.4
Changes to the Number of Studies and Conclusions, Mass Shootings
    Policy
Minimum age requirements
Prohibitions associated with mental illness
No. of Studies
1
0
Original Review
Conclusion
Purchasing:


   Policy
Child-access prevention laws
Concealed-carry laws
Gun-free zones
Laws allowing armed staff in K–12 schools
No. of Studies
0
0
0
N/A
Original Review
Conclusion
No studies
No studies
No studies
N/A
Updated Review
No. of
Studies Conclusion
0 N


n Economic Journal, Vol. 80, No. 1, 2013, pp. 5–25.
Duggan, Mark, “More Guns, More Crime,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 109, No. 5, 2001, pp. 1086–1114.
Duggan, Mark, Randi Hjalmarsson, and Brian A. Jacob, “The Short-Term and Localized Effect o


s is provided in Chapter Two. The data used to construct these figures, as well as the full data extraction file with infor- mation from each study, is provided in an online appendix to this report, available at w w w.rand.org/t/R R 2088-1.
377
  RR-


   EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
 Although alcohol-related impaired driving continues to be the primary cause of fatal automobile accidents (National Center for Statistics and Analysis, 2019), drug-impaired driving has emerged as a grow- ing threat to public saf


f implementation.
• The costs, risks, and benefits of alternative phlebotomy approaches (e.g., officer training, contracts) should be identified.
• Detailed data should be collected on the effectiveness of field sobriety tests when used for actual dr


and court- room presentation.
• Laboratory-based toxico- logical screening provides
a more-powerful means
of drug detection, but its utility can be diminished by delays in acquiring samples, limited labora- tory resources leading to backlogs, and ins


PANTS
Joe Abrusci
International Association of Chiefs of Police
Kristen Burke
California Department of Justice Bureau of Forensic Services
Kevin Deichsel
Colorado District Attorneys’ Council
Scott Flynn
Fullerton Police Department
Stéphane Fontaine


al., 2017). As states across the nation legalize medicinal and recreational cannabis use, cannabis is becom- ing more-readily available and the need to prevent and deter cannabis-impaired driving is becoming increasingly urgent. Recent studies sugge


s.
equip law enforcement to perform certain observational field tests, which can produce evidence supporting a finding of drug-related impairment: the SFST,5 the Advanced Roadside Impaired Driving Enforcement (ARIDE) test,6 and DRE certi- fication.7


prosecution of a DUID case difficult and can
sometimes lead to an incorrect interpretation of results.
of potential impairment. Other states have decided not to establish such numerical thresholds and instead have adopted zero-tolerance DUID laws, in


y included two panelists from Canada who could offer a perspective on how
law enforcement officers, forensic toxicologists, and prosecutors have been responding to the challenge of drug-impaired driv- ing in light of Canada’s legalization of recreati


 categorized as primarily related to law enforcement
• three were categorized as primarily related to forensic toxicology
• eight were categorized as primarily related to prosecution
• ten were categorized as cross-sector.
Top-tier needs touched on i


t- ing some drug impairment, not just alcohol-related impairment (Porath-Waller and Beirness, 2014). The participants therefore discussed how practitioners can keep a focus on detecting and proving impairment while avoiding unnecessary complica- tion


data on the effectiveness of field sobriety tests when used for actual DUID cases for use in additional research.
• Develop and validate training to boost the confidence of officers when testifying (e.g., “cops and court” training).
• Identify the ga


rotocol—can create challenges in the prosecution of the case. The ARIDE training was created to offer more-advanced training to officers who were not able to go through the DRE program, but one participant said that there has been a recent rise in no


ld encounter two challenges: (1) the amount
of travel time required for the DRE to arrive at the specified location and (2) the amount of time it might take for the DRE to administer and document the 12-step protocol to collect evidence of potential


sting law enforce- ment phlebotomy training programs needed to be expanded.14 Others noted that roadside phlebotomy could introduce poten- tial liability and evidentiary challenges. Ultimately, participants considered alternative phlebotomy approache


identity of the impairing drug(s) is not clear; such equipment is versatile and sensitive enough to accurately test for a wide variety of drugs. This type of equip- ment can be very expensive, however, and therefore might be out of financial reach f


hich ultimately
would enhance a prosecutor’s ability to bring forward the stron- gest DUID case.
The evidence in DUID cases can be complex and hard to cogently present in court in a persuasive manner. Although the participants stated that the observa


tablished, and observations made during prearrest screen- ing (NHTSA, 2015). The documentation of these observations, both before and during contact with the suspect, is critical for providing both evidence of impairment and the legal basis for initi


at with drugs (unlike with alcohol), there generally is not a simple dose response that can associate
a chemical test with a degree of impairment. In other words, “there is no magic number that could be used” to determine
a level of impairment from a


re various types of chemical tests from a driver suspected of driving while impaired without first obtaining a search warrant, as long as the suspect does not revoke this implied consent by refus-
ing to submit to the chemical test at the time of the


ing incidence of drug-impaired driving.
CONCLUSION
Drug-impaired driving persists as a major public safety threat. Preventing and deterring instances of drug-impaired driving require law enforcement officers, forensic toxicologists, and prosecutors t


veloped the research agenda that structured the topics presented in the main report. The descriptions in this appendix are adapted from those in previ- ous Priority Criminal Justice Needs Initiative publications and reflect adjustments to the needs i


f Workshop Functions and Objectives
Tests That Establish Impairment: Observational Field Tests
Tests That Establish Impairment: Chemical Tests
Role of Technology in Improving Impaired Driving Tests
Review Key Benefits and Challenges Identified During


need’s chance of success between 10 percent (i.e., a rating of 1) and 90 percent (i.e., a rating of 9). This dimension was intended to include not only technical con- cerns (i.e., whether the need would be hard to meet) but also the effect of factor


as standard protocols are followed.
32%
each problem and need pairing should be voted up or down on the list. An example of this form is provided in Table A.2.
We then tallied the participants’ third-round responses and applied those votes to produce


s of DUID field sobriety tests
when used for actual DUID cases and use
those data to conduct additional research.
   5% 5%
5% 5%
0% 123456789
NOTE: Percentages on each question did not always sum to 100 percent due to rounding and variation in the nu


have limitations that juries are unaware of (which helps to set unrealistic expectations).
Need: Develop best practices to maximize the benefits and address the limits of video evidence (with respect to driving under the influence).
2
2
3
3
  Issue:


with ARIDE and DRE training in many jurisdictions.
Field sobriety tests are effective as long as standard protocols are followed.
Toxicology labs are not doing an adequate job with respect to the scope and sensitivity of DUID testing.
There are not e


technologies to find agencies that are willing and able to field test.
It is difficult for officers to document and connect what they saw that is related to impairment prior to actually conducting a field sobriety test.
Roadside oral fluid testing co


e prioritized needs and other results from the discussion reflect the views of the invited experts, and these results do not necessarily reflect the views of researchers from the RAND Corporation, RTI International, or NIJ.
3 Polydrug use refers to i


hat might indicate impairment from different types of drugs.
7 The International Association of Chiefs of Police and the NHTSA created the DRE certification to rigorously prepare law enforcement officers to collect evidence of potential drug-induced


field, Matthew C. Farrelly, Scott P. Novak, and Gary A. Zarkin, “Association Between Self-Reports of Being High and Perceptions About the Safety of Drugged and Drunk Driving,” Health Education Research, Vol. 31, No. 4, 2016, pp. 535–541.
Arnold, Lind


d Traffic Fatality Investigations, Willow Grove, Pa.: Center for Forensic Science Research and Education at the Fredric Rieders Family Foundation, 2016.
21
22
Garner, Bryan A., ed., Black’s Law Dictionary, 8th ed., St. Paul, Minn.: West Publishing Co


Vol. 114, No. 5, 2019, pp. 847–856.
Logan, Barry, Sherri L. Kacinko, and Douglas J. Beirness, An Evaluation of Data from Drivers Arrested for Driving Under the Influence in Relation to Per se Limits for Cannabis, Washington, D.C.: AAA Foundation for


cipation and assistance of the workshop attendees, who are listed in the body of this report. The experiences they shared and the suggestions they put forth form the basis of the recommendations presented in this report. We would like to acknowledge


ues.
Duren Banks is the Division Vice President for Applied Justice Research at RTI International, overseeing research and evaluation projects related to all components of the criminal justice system and community safety. She conducts research on man


system, researchers, and lawmakers.
Other RAND research reports from the Priority Criminal Justice Needs Initiative that might be of interest are
• Sean E. Goodison, Michael J. D. Vermeer, Jeremy D. Barnum, Dulani Woods, and Brian A. Jackson, Law Enf


   EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
  SELECTED PRIORITY NEEDS
  RESULTS
Implementing public education and TFA prevention efforts
• Basic primary education should be developed for kids and parents about consent and about the risks and consequences of sharing informa


nstances of TFA difficult to investigate and adjudicate. Digital anonym-
ity, the ability to collect digital evidence, and the involvement of such technology-related entities as internet providers and social media platforms all present significant ch


ere ranked by participants according to whether they were high (Tier 1), medium (Tier 2), or lower (Tier 3) priority (see the technical appendix for more details on the method- ology used to prioritize the needs). Twenty-one of the identified strateg


rtance of efforts to mitigate the significant, irreparable, and persistent harm experienced by TFA victims. Participants called for research to evaluate the extent to which exist-
ing remedies mitigate harm, tools for early detection of TFA, and meth


sexual favors, or other things of value and threaten to harm or embarrass victims if they fail to comply (Clark, 2016).
• nonconsensual pornography: the distribution of nude or sexually explicit images or videos of an individual without their consent


t they have been victimized or know who to contact for help.
The Prevalence of Technology-Facilitated Abuse
TFA is on the rise. Estimates suggest that between 18 percent and 37 percent of adult Americans have experienced severe online harassment, inc


d engage in self-harm at alarmingly high rates (Bates, 2017; International Centre for Missing and Exploited Children, 2018; U.S. Department of Justice, 2016). A 2015 Federal Bureau
of Investigation analysis of 43 sextortion cases found that in
28 per


f experts representing local, state, and federal law enforcement; legal professionals; researchers; and experts from victim services and advocacy organizations. Many of the experts invited to attend the work- shop have made significant contributions


ted
the need for better tools to help individuals detect TFA as it is happening and respond. There was a general perception that the seriousness of TFA and its impact on victims were underap- preciated, both within the criminal justice system and out


 (i.e., loss) of swatting and doxing.
There is a lack of education and resources about consent and about the risks and consequences of sharing information online.
It is unclear how to get relevant stakeholders and the public to care about identifying


 irreparable, and persistent harm to the victim.
There is resistance and reluctance among victims to come forward.
Legal remedies and penalties for TFA are inadequate for addressing the harms (e.g., forfeiture, sex offender registry, misdemeanor vers


ly respond to such behaviors.
Participants were intent on ensuring that the term used would adequately capture the variety of behaviors and motiva- tions associated with TFA. Participants agreed that character- izations of TFA must be broad enough to


s a high-priority need. Participants proposed the implementation of school-based internet safety programs and public service announcements (PSAs) that would educate students and their parents about the consequences
of sharing information online, the


 enforcement is not aware of the relevant statutes and does not understand the consequences of TFA for victims, reports will not be taken, investigations will not be conducted, and cases will not make their way to prosecutors.
many states have passed


sulted
in the nonconsensual public dissemination of explicit photos of several celebrities. In every instance, individuals were unsuc- cessful in halting the sharing and posting of their photos on
the internet, with one exception: a gymnast who publi


, and training to help address the many challenges in bringing TFA offenders to justice. Although the identified needs often were specific to dif- ferent stages of the justice system—investigation, prosecution, or sentencing—one recommendation that s


ditation standards for first responders would ensure that it is implemented consistently nationwide. One participant
Participants noted that another major challenge for law enforcement agencies in addressing TFA cases is not having the training or re


orce the offender to take down any content pertaining to the victim.
Mitigating Harm and Empowering Victims
According to participants, the window for getting unwanted material deleted from the internet in TFA cases is often quite small: “If it’s not


revalence of TFA and the associated harms, for instance, as a supplement to the National Crime Victimization Survey, would bring attention to the number of victims affected and the extent of the impact.
Participants noted that, often, a victim’s prim


 interactions and allow the storage and sharing of content
has given rise to new modes and methods of perpetrating harassment, abuse, and other criminal behavior. Social media platforms, gaming forums, content-sharing websites, and other digital spac


op Activities
We recruited panel members by identifying knowledgeable individuals through existing professional and social networks (e.g., LinkedIn) and by reviewing literature published on the topic. We then extended invitations to those individuals


Criminal Justice Needs Initiative workshops (see, for example, Jackson et al., 2015; Jackson et al., 2016, and refer- ences therein). The needs were prioritized using a variation of the Delphi Method, a technique developed at RAND to elicit expert o


inspection of the histogram), the participants were asked to discuss or explain their votes at one end of the spectrum or the other. If a second round of discus- sion occurred, participants were given an opportunity to adjust their ratings on the sa


of prioritization, we implemented a method equivalent to the one we used in previ- ous work (Hollywood et al., 2016). Specifically, if every panel member voted “up” for a need that was at the bottom of the list, then the collective effect of those vo


licymaking focus, the second-tier
0%
Table A.2. Example of the Delphi Round 3 Voting Form
Question
Tier Vote Up
Vote Down
Tier 3
1 1
1
17
  Tier 1
Tier 2
  Issue: Law enforcement might not prioritize TFA cases.
Need: Develop training materials for la


Across Tier Boundaries
 Higher score
Tier 1 score range
     2
   Tier 2 score range
22
2
  2
score 3333
  Tier 3 range
 Lower score
NOTE: Each example need’s original tier is shown by a circle with a solid border (the two needs starting in Tier 2 an


are insufficient staff members trained to identify, gather, and process digital evidence.a
There is resistance and reluctance among victims to come forward.a
Criminal justice practitioners are overwhelmed
by the amount of unstructured data and potent


and coordination between people working in the TFA space.
Existing legal and other conceptions do not capture the full scope of TFA.a
There is resistance and reluctance among victims to come forward.a
There are limited resources for managing TFA case


.
• Implement an “internet panic button” for users.
TFA can cause significant, irreparable, and • Reevaluate platform responsibility for TFA. persistent harm to the victim.a
Media and social media reporting of swatting, • Develop media and social med


on on the survey, see Bureau of Justice Statistics, undated.
2 We have documented law enforcement challenges and needs related to digital evidence and anonymizing tools in several prior reports. For more information, see Goodison, Davis, and Jackson,


entre for Missing and Exploited Children, Studies in Child Protection: Sexual Extortion and Nonconsensual Pornography, Alexandria, Va., 2018. As of November 8, 2019: https://www.icmec.org/studies-in-child-protection-sexual-extortion- and-non-consensu


. 30–54.
RAND Corporation, “Delphi Method,” webpage, undated-a. As of May 7, 2020:
http://www.rand.org/topics/delphi-method.html
RAND Corporation, “Priority Criminal Justice Needs Initiative,” webpage, undated-b. As of May 7, 2020: www.rand.org/well-


 other policy concerns pertaining to public safety and criminal and civil justice. For more information, email justicepolicy@ rand.org.
23
24
About the Authors
Amanda R. Witwer is a research analyst in the Division for Applied Justice Research at RTI


of Denver, is carrying out a research effort to assess and prioritize technology and related needs across the criminal justice community. This research effort, called the Priority Criminal Justice Needs Initiative, is a component of the Criminal Jus


altered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html. For


   CORPORATION
MELISSA L. FINUCANE, AARON CLARK-GINSBERG, ANDREW M. PARKER,
ALEJANDRO U. BECERRA-ORNELAS, NOREEN CLANCY, RAJEEV RAMCHAND, TIM SLACK, VANESSA PARKS, LYNSAY AYER, AMANDA F. EDELMAN, ELIZABETH L. PETRUN SAYERS, SHANTHI NATARAJ, CRAIG A.


es; private-sector companies involved in reducing risk; and scientists and donors (federal and private) responsible for distributing resources that support research in this field.
Community Health and Environmental Policy Program
RAND Social and Econ


ale of the disaster motivated diverse stakeholders to examine the human dimensions of the spill and how communities’ resilience to similar threats could be improved. This examination is needed because, as long as humans depend on extracting oil and g


vidence of distress associated with the DWH disaster and a variety of factors that affected the nature and severity of people’s experiences. Key findings from the research are shown in Table S.1.
Table S.1. Key Research Findings
Mental Health Distres


literature review and workshop discussions, several themes emerged regarding ways to reduce the stress of large oil spills and build resilience to catastrophic events. These multifaceted themes formed the basis of several key recommendations, as show


 private sector, scientists
Government (all levels), private sector
Table S.2. Summary of Recommendations
Stakeholders with Primary Role
    x
  Recommendation
• Deepen the evidence base for building community resilience.
o Partner with communities t


spill should serve as turning points, after which society evaluates how to improve community efforts to prepare for, respond to, recover from, and prevent such catastrophes. Ten years after the DWH oil spill, it is time to assess the recommendations


ermore, implications of those findings have yet to be distilled into recommendations for specific stakeholder groups.
Report Goal and Aims
In this report, researchers synthesize existing research to determine the opportunities and challenges facing s


h, economic, and community functioning. Initial results of the literature review were presented to representatives of nongovernment organizations, academic researchers, and community leaders who attended a workshop in New Orleans on February 8, 2019.


.9 From those funds, about $12 billion was paid to individuals, companies, and local governments for losses caused by damages to the Gulf’s ecosystem. The compensation system implemented by BP was one of the largest in U.S. history, but the company w


and built environments. A combination of community capacities and chronic stressors (working independently or through interaction) strongly influences the recovery (or dysfunction) trajectories of individuals and communities over time.
  1 Patel et a


e collaboratively to make decisions and act according to the outcome of those decisions.
The result of a shock is usually a mix of recovery and dysfunction—for example, a community’s economy might recover quickly, but its members might continue to st


phic characteristics are important drivers of negative mental health symptoms.
Higherlevelsofsocialcapital—particularlysocialsupport,senseofcommunity,and perceived resiliency—have a protective impact against spill-related stress in most cases, except


; Grattan et al., 2011; Morris et al., 2013; Osofsky, Hansel, et al., 2015; Rung et al., 2016; Ramchand et al., 2019; Kwok, Mcgrath, et al., 2017; Gaston et al., 2017.
2 Buttke, Vagi, Bayleyegn, et al., 2012; Buttke, Vagi, Schnall, et al., 2012; Cher


 in the Gulf Coast Region
        Total Louisiana
Texas (reference) Mississippi Alabama
Florida
Sex
7 Fan et al., 2015.
8 Rung et al., 2016.
9 Ramchand et al., 2019.
Depression Screen (% SE)
16.2 (1.5) 18.1 (2.4) 12.0 (2.1) 20.3 (2.9)a 13.4 (2.4) 19.


edictor of anxiety and depression was reported income loss related to the oil spill.15 A study of residents in coastal Alabama and Florida found that, compared with people with stable incomes, people reporting spill-related income loss had statistica


tudy highlighted commercial fishers as particularly at risk for depression symptoms, consistent with the stress of losing multiple types of resources (e.g., job security, social networks, money, boat, self-esteem); these detrimental impacts were not


igion is not very salient.36 In this case, we speculate that the distribution of social resources was uneven across religious and nonreligious individuals. These studies hint at important mechanisms that could contribute to the vulnerability of some


he Gulf Coast region. In the long term, high proportions of households reported negative financial experiences associated with the oil spill. The nature of the economic impacts of the DWH oil spill have been documented in about ten papers and reports


ver a seven-year period.8 In contrast to the predictive approach, more-recent analysis, based on observed data of Gulf blue crab fishing and analyzed using a quasiexperimental difference-in-differences approach, suggested that there were substantial


ugh many deep-water rigs in the Gulf of Mexico were not producing during the moratorium, drilling contractors, rig operators, and well servicing firms mostly retained their highly skilled employees, at least initially. Although oil production stopped


those operating in the post- spill period.
Limitations
There are several methodological limitations associated with the studies cited here. First, it can be difficult to identify the causal impact of the oil spill on economic outcomes. Although both


lude community-based participatory methods, random sampling, qualitative and quantitative analyses, and a focus on immediate and longer-term impacts in various coastal locations. A challenge in interpreting the findings relates to the many potential


ill itself. Analyses showed that being part of the compensation process was one of the strongest contributors to intrusive stress among coastal residents.
Research on the compensation process following the DWH oil spill suggests that the process for


tal impact of economic exposure on mental health symptoms, such as depression, could be explained almost entirely by economic exposure’s detrimental impact on social resources (e.g., counting on family or friends for everyday favors).13
The community


onclusions about community distress that can be drawn from the findings reported above. Perhaps the most fundamental challenge is deciding what is meant by community. Individuals and households can possess a sense of community through attachment to p


holders with a Role in Addressing Each Recommendation
Non-
Federal State Local governmental Private
Government Government Government Organizations Sector Scientists
               1. Focus on the needs of people and their communities.
         • Addr


h participatory research approaches
(e.g., partner with local organizations to design surveys and collect information)
üüü
               • Use prospective research designs, collect baseline data, and broaden the definition of exposure (e.g., incl


 evaluation.
Ensure Ongoing Local Support
In the medium to long term, support resources need to be sustained to address the chronic stress that individuals report experiencing and to strengthen various capacities in communities. Specifically, resourc


the social systems in which disasters are managed. Although physical and natural scientists play a critical role in providing important technical information and insights, government is primarily responsible for leading response efforts, and public


f the physically contaminated zone, affecting social and economic systems more broadly. Designing recovery efforts in a way that maintains and improves the well-being of impacted communities can help groups with few livelihood alternatives (e.g., fis


n particular needs to establish strong, sustained local partnerships in advance of a crisis event so that local context is well understood and trusted relationships can be
10 Ritchie, Gill, and Long, 2018.
11 Mayer, Running, and Bergstrand, 2015.
12


ders with a primary role in helping leverage diverse skills to build systems-level capacity are federal government agencies (e.g., the U.S. Department of
15 Browne, 2015; Bankoff and Hilhorst, 2009; Hewitt, 2012.
16 Lesen et al., 2019; Wilkinson, 201


 across different types of decisionmakers.24
21 Finucane et al., 2019.
22 Nicholls, Picou, and McCord, 2017.
23 Kwok, Engel, et al., 2017; Oliver-Smith, 2012; Oliver-Smith et al., 2017; Knowles, 2014; Morse, 2008; Ryder, 2017; Osofsky et al., 2012.
2


P Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling, 2011. 27 Chaplin, Twigg, and Lovell, 2019.
28 Osofsky et al., 2012.
29 Cutter, Boruff, and Shirley, 2003.
30 Osofsky et al., 2012.
 36
Improve Adaptive Capacity Through Preparedness and Diversifica


, 2000; Gallopín, 2006.
32 United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, undated; Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2018. 33 Cruz and Suarez-Paba, 2019.
 37
only 1 percent of oil spill studies conducted between 1968 and 2015.34 Furthermore,


ly accessible terms and phrases. The authors argue that with these processes in place, community members can be
34 Murphy et al., 2016.
35 Cutter, Boruff, and Shirley, 2003. 36 Wall, McNie, and Garfin, 2017. 37 Lesen et al., 2019.
38 Lesen et al., 20


h groups could be minimized.46 Access issues can be particularly salient for marginalized and vulnerable populations. Participation in the generation or consumption of research studies may be inhibited by linguistic and cultural differences. Collecti


ethods used to develop this report that necessarily limit the conclusions that can be made. First, papers in preparation or other work still in progress are not included and new evidence or insights may emerge in the near future that alter our unders


of academic and grey literature. We searched “Deepwater Horizon” in Web of Science (returning 1,534 documents) and in PubMed (returning 783 documents). We reviewed other databases from websites, including research and policy organizations (e.g., Lou


elicited feedback on our results through a facilitated conversation with workshop participants focused on the following topics:
• If you wanted someone to take away just one thing from this work, what would that be?
• What strikes you as really impor


Patient questionnaires Probabilistic telephone survey
Purposive sampling, in-person survey
Probabilistic telephone survey
Cluster sampling, in- person household surveys
Cluster sampling, in- person household surveys
In-person survey
Representative te


ontinental United States
TX, LA, MS, AL, FL
LA, MS, AL, Fl
FL
FL
FL
     Authors (Date)
Nadeau et al. (2014)
Sumaila et al. (2012)
U.S. Department of Commerce (2010)
Whitehead et al. (2018)
Austin et al. (2014) Cope et al. (2013)
Cope et al. (2016) C


trics.
3. Losses in recreational activities were between 600 and 700 million dollars.
Top Three Gaps in Knowledge
1. Why were certain sectors more resilient than others?
2. How did the effects of the spill differ across individual fishers/businesses?


er Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Oil Drilling Moratorium, Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2014.
Alvarez, Sergio, Sherry L. Larkin, John C. Whitehead, and Tim Haab, “A Revealed Preference Approach to Valuing Non-Market Recreat


onse
52
(CASPER) One Year Following the Gulf Coast Oil Spill: Alabama and Mississippi, 2011,” Prehospital and Disaster Medicine, Vol. 27, No. 6, 2012b, pp. 496–502.
Carney, Diana, Sustainable Rural Livelihoods: What Contribution Can We Make? London:


: Evidence from Critical Infrastructure Cybersecurity Standards,” Science and Public Policy, Vol. 46, No. 3, 2018.
Cope, Michael R., Tim Slack, Troy C. Blanchard, and Matthew R. Lee, “Does Time Heal All Wounds? Community Attachment, Natural Resource


Population Survey,” Journal of Behavioral Health Services and Research, Vol. 42, No. 1, 2015, pp. 23–41.
Federal Emergency Management Agency, A Whole Community Approach to Emergency Management: Principles, Themes, and Pathways for Action, Washington,


gical Disaster and Chronic Community Stress,” Society and Natural Resources, Vol. 11, No. 8, 1998, pp. 795–815.
Gill, Duane A., Steven Picou, and Liesel Ashley Ritchie, “The Exxon Valdez and BP Oil Spills: A Comparison of Initial Social and Psycholog


ngineering, Vol. 3, No. 4, 2015, pp. 1260–1271.
Harville, Emily W., Arti Shankar, Christine Dunkel Schetter, and Maureen Lichtveld, “Cumulative Effects of the Gulf Oil Spill and Other Disasters on Mental Health Among Reproductive-Aged Women: The Gulf


lue to the State of Florida,” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Vol. 45, 2013, pp. 389–399.
Lawther, Peter M., “Community Involvement in Post Disaster Re‐Construction–Case Study of the British Red Cross Maldives Recovery Program,” Intern


ical Responses and Resilience of People and Communities Impacted by the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill,” Transactions of the American Clinical and Climatological Association, Vol. 124, 2013, p. 191–201.
Morse, Reilly, Environmental Justice Through the E


egrated Research on Disaster Risk, 2016.
———, “The Social Construction of Disaster Risk: Seeking Root Causes,” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol. 22, 2017, pp. 469–474.
Osofsky, Hari M., Kate Baxter-Kauf, Bradley Hammer, Ann Maila


 No. 2, 2019.
Patel, Megha M., Leia Y. Saltzman, Regardt J. Ferreira, and Amy E. Lesen, “Resilience: Examining the Impacts of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill on the Gulf Coast Vietnamese American Community,” Social Sciences, Vol. 7, No. 10, 2018, p.


 Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill in the WaTCH Study,” Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 124, No. 9, 2016, pp. 1429– 1435.
Rung, Ariane L., Symielle Gaston, William T. Robinson, Edward J. Trapido, and Edward S. Peters, “Untangling the Disaster-Depre


esearch, Vol. 146, 2016, pp. 108–115.
Strelitz, Jean, Lawrence S. Engel, Richard K. Kwok, Aubrey K. Miller, Aaron Blair, and Dale P. Sandler, “Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Exposures and Nonfatal Myocardial Infarction in the GuLF STUDY,” Environmental


esearch, Vol. 19, No. 10, 2016, pp. 1220–1230.
Whitehead, John C., Tim Haab, Sherry L. Larkin, John B. Loomis, Sergio Alvarez, and Andrew Ropicki, “Estimating Lost Recreational Use Values of Visitors to Northwest Florida due to the Deepwater Horizon


Health Service Utilization and Costs at the Outset of a Permanent Supportive Housing Program
Baseline Evaluation Report
RYAN K. MCBAIN, SARAH B. HUNTER, ADAM SCHERLING, ALINA I. PALIMARU, MATTHEW CEFALU, WILLIAM MCCONNELL, PRIYA BATRA
  SOCIAL AND EC


nd costs evolve over the course of the program, relative to a cohort of individuals experiencing homelessness who are not enrolled in the program over the same time frame. This report should be of interest to public and private health care organizati


tcomes in certain populations, such as individuals with HIV/AIDS.
The Affordable Care Act (ACA) expanded the eligibility requirements for Medicaid, allowing a large number of adults who experience homelessness to become Medicaid-eligible. Also, a rec


naged care plan was successful in identifying and enrolling a cohort of high-need beneficiaries into its PSH program. The 164 individuals enrolled to date exhibited multimorbid physical and behavioral health conditions and significant health service


ong-term unemployment (Slesnick, Zhang, and Yilmazer, 2018). Sustained multimorbidity creates long-term competing challenges that may persist even after an individual secures housing (Schick et al., 2019; Henwood et al., 2018).
The Value of Permanent


ged care plan serving more than 1 million members in inland Southern California. The health plan has established an algorithm to identify high utilizers of their health system who are dealing with chronic housing insecurity, and the plan sought to en


for help with activities of daily living; (3) at least six months of active eligibility for plan benefits in the member’s lifetime; (4) at least seven inpatient days in an acute care facility in the past 12 months; (5) self-reported homelessness, th


vice charge for an event (typically a medical service provided) at a specified location for a set of diagnoses on a given date.
We conducted a series of descriptive analyses to summarize participant characteristics in the 12 months prior to PSH enrol


   Demographic Characteristic
Behavioral health conditions Mental health conditions Substance use disorders
Sample (n) Percentage 91 55%
72 44%
50 30%
      NOTE: Behavioral health conditions comprise both mental health conditions and substance use d


ervice utilization and associated costs in the year prior to program enrollment. The most frequent locations of service utilization (Table 3.2) were represented by ambulance services (2,866 patient events), inpatient general hospital care (2,125 pati


the managed care plan has been successful in identifying and enrolling a cohort of high-need beneficiaries into its PSH program. The 164 individuals enrolled to date exhibited multimorbid physical and behavioral health conditions and significant heal


the subsequent 12 months of enrollment.
Lastly, with regard to demographic characteristics of participants, it appears that recruitment efforts to date have captured a relatively diverse group of individuals with respect to race/ethnicity, with rough


x physical and behavioral health needs of the population served by this program, including high utilization of emergency services and hospitalizations that
13
result in significant health expenditures. The data also demonstrate the ability of the hea


No. 2, 2018, pp. 415–418.
Hogan, James, Scattered-Site Housing: Characteristics and Consequences, Seattle, Wash.: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research, Septempber 1996. As of June 1, 2020: https:


d Quality of Life of Individuals in Permanent Supportive Housing Who Were Formerly Chronically Homeless,” American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 109, No. 2, 2019, pp. 313–319.
Slesnick, Natasha, Jing Zhang, and Tansel Yilmazer, “Employment and Other


Exploring the Impact
of COVID-19 on Social Services for Vulnerable Populations in Los Angeles
Lessons Learned from Community Providers
STEPHANIE BROOKS HOLLIDAY, SARAH B. HUNTER, ALEX R. DOPP, MARGARET CHAMBERLIN, MARTIN Y. IGUCHI
  SOCIAL AND ECONOM


 Heilbrun at Drexel University and Nicole Eberhart at the RAND Corporation.
 viii
Abbreviations
CFIR Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research
COVID-19 coronavirus disease 2019
IHME Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (University of


interview guide that covered the following topics:
• sources of information guiding organizations’ pandemic response plans
• changes made in response to COVID-19 regarding services, communication, policies,
procedures, or some combination thereof
• b


ontrol and Prevention, the World Health Organization), state and local public health agencies, the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)’s COVID-19 infection projections (IHME, 2020), personal connections with


).
We also learned of ways in which programs and organizations have adjusted the focus of their services. Organizations have emphasized getting individuals into housing and supporting maintenance of housing. There has been a shift to providing food a


, talked about quickly mobilizing a crisis-management team who would meet regularly (e.g., weekly) and disseminate guidance. In some cases, these teams included infectious disease experts, who were seen as particularly valuable to guiding the organiz


from their clients placed signs on their doors with information about available services and any key guidance that might be needed. Providers also expanded the types of services provided, as described previously (e.g., providing food and other goods


one interviewee highlighted:
Pre-COVID, our [space was] a place of respite. That was such a loss for [our clients]. Losing the libraries and parks. Safe spaces, those have really diminished.
Inner Setting
Interviewees discussed the importance of proa


bed how staff are working to provide quality services to clients while balancing the impact of the pandemic on their own health and well-being. Some interviewees described the importance of additional professional supports (e.g., increased supervisio


intments, COVID-related service requests, and additional documentation of supports offered to clients.
• Client status and symptoms: This includes tracking client responses and needs over time, including mental health needs, medical issues, substance


ces could also lead to an exacerbation of existing mental health and substance use disorders. Fourth, interviewees cited barriers to determining what is accurate information about COVID-19. For example, one interviewee noted that in certain homeless


s and involved with the criminal justice system—during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our goal was to understand the ways in which organizations have adapted their services and ultimately identify early lessons learned and innovative solu


erns.
Recommendations
Though certain services are beginning to reopen in Los Angeles County, it is clear that COVID-19 will continue to influence the way services are provided—especially to vulnerable populations—for the foreseeable future. The chang


use technology (e.g., older individuals, those recently released from long periods of incarceration).
4. Focus on equity issues because the pandemic is creating disproportionate impacts that will likely widen over time. There are concrete steps that


sly described, COVID-19 has placed great burdens on staff of provider organizations, increasing their potential support needs. Support for staff might include making sure that organizations are aware of resources that are available to providers on th


identification and other benefits offices be considered essential services
• Temporarily waive inspection and identification requirements
     Access to benefits (B)
Some offices closed or reduced access
• Provide support for organizations to engage


mic.
18
References
Damschroder, Laura J., David C. Aron, Rosalind E. Keith, Susan A. Kirsh, Jeffery A. Alexander, and Julie C. Lowery, “Fostering Implementation of Health Services Research Findings into Practice: A Consolidated Framework for Advancin


y Today to Accelerate the Curve on Access and Quality Tomorrow,” JMIR Mental Health, Vol. 7, No. 3, March 2020.
University of Wisconsin Department of Psychiatry, “Support for Healthcare Providers,” webpage, undated. As of July 30, 2020: https://www.p


 The Law Enforcement Response to Homelessness
Identifying High-Priority Needs to Improve Law Enforcement
Strategies for Addressing Homelessness
Sean E. Goodison, Jeremy D. Barnum, Michael J. D. Vermeer, Dulani Woods, Siara I. Sitar, Brian A. Jackson


ficer health and wellness.
Partnerships and collaboration with service providers and communities
• Research should be conducted to identify the poten- tial waste, costs, and benefits associated with siloed service provision.
• A promising practices g


f affordable housing are broadly considered the key variables at play, homelessness can manifest differently across the country. For example, some areas have more challenges with unsheltered homelessness, particularly in locales with
a mild climate,


olutions to fill gaps or needs left unaddressed by existing responses, and evaluate whether new approaches achieve intended outcomes.
   Although poverty and the lack
of affordable housing are broadly considered the key vari- ables at play, homelessn


y one-fifth (19 percent) were considered chronically homeless,
meaning a person “with a disability who has been continu- ously homeless for 1 year or more or has experienced at least four episodes of homelessness in the last 3 years” (Henry et al., 2


disorder, have a previous criminal history and/ or history of incarceration, have low income, and have weak social connections and/or family support are more at risk for becoming homeless than individuals without those risk factors (National Academie


nt guidance. Three recent works—a meta-analysis of homelessness intervention programs (Munthe-Kaas, Berg, and Blaasvær, 2018), a report on the state of homelessness in America (Council of Economic Advisers, 2019), and a 2018 report by the National Ac


ess, 2016). Finally, Munthe-Kaas, Berg, and Blaasvær recommend that worldwide interventions should be considered, which have been an area of development since the meta-analysis was conducted (see, for example, Goering et al., 2014; and Jacups, Rogers


larger impact on risk factors for homelessness, such as substance use and mental health disorders, than other approaches and suggests that it is more expensive than other alternatives. The NASEM report notes that PSH is important in increasing the a


NIJ and other stakeholders to discover and implement novel law enforcement responses to homelessness. The meeting was held on February 5 and 6, 2020, in Washington, D.C., at the NIJ offices within the Office of Justice Programs headquarters. The wor


needs. After the workshop, these needs were assessed and grouped into the following four broad operational categories (which are related to the four topical themes of the workshop):
• Promising law enforcement practices and policy needs are related t


fourth need called for an evaluation of the benefits of innovative law enforcement approaches to mitigating justice problems that could contrib- ute to homelessness. Examples of such innovative strategies mentioned by the participants include warran


he data that are collected and share it appropriately with all relevant partners might produce database products that are actionable for only some users, leading others to abandon the data products when determining how to best fulfill roles and serve


ts in wasted resources and ineffective responses.
Law enforcement has limited choices to respond to frequent, minor incidents related to homelessness.a
The general public often has a flawed perspective about what law enforcement can and cannot do to


 clinic or institutional only, or do not allow individuals to bring their property or pets with them).a
There are high-frequency utilizers who have a significant impact on law enforcement and other public services.
There is a lack of recognition of t


ants, references to other literature sources have been included where appropriate to provide more detail and support for the assertions and opinions discussed by the participants during the workshop (for example, where a participant might have mentio


tor influencing home- lessness is the unavailability of affordable housing options. The cost of housing is affected by numerous factors that can vary by jurisdiction, such as housing regulations, population growth, residential demand within neighborh


ble to community members (e.g., number of arrests), and communities see law enforcement responses as more immedi- ate because police are a phone call away from being on site for a wide variety of public concerns. However, experts discussed the oversi


lthough the challenge of homelessness might vary widely across jurisdictions, law enforcement has daily experience
with issues that are highly related to homelessness; specifically, mental health crises, substance use disorders, and criminal victimiz


EH with useful social services—particularly for people expe- riencing unsheltered homelessness—is that some are “resistant” to services that are offered to them (they consistently choose
to decline services or opt not to engage with available service


bstances can negatively affect the mental and physical well-being of PEH. Experts also agreed that the inter- sectionality of these and other issues, such as trauma history, with homelessness requires further examination.
There is a higher likelihood


ses of homelessness, police are constantly under pressure from business leaders and members of the community to “fix” homelessness.
environment or to have their belongings stored, and making services available to establish an environment of trust. Pa


ciently to promote public safety.
The law enforcement participants on the panel also highlighted efforts to reduce barriers to housing, employment, and other resources, such as warrant-clearing events or forgiving indi- viduals’ fines and fees. Some


to be accessible to all persons, regard- less of ability. There is also uncertainty in the law regarding people living in recreational vehicles and campers and whether they could be considered homeless and part of an encamp- ment. Recreational vehicl


 criticism
in many cases if the community expects a rapid response to any problem. Unaddressed criticism can then generate public dissatisfaction about the way the problem is being addressed
or the ways in which PEH are being treated. A key area for


lt to collect valid and reliable data on individuals experiencing unsheltered homelessness, given the characteristics of the population and the brief nature of their contact with government officials.
Better data would enable front-end analysis to be


noncriminal police encounters with PEH are recorded. Therefore, it can be difficult for agencies to determine what percentage of their workload involves this population. Track- ing these interactions, what actions officers take, and what the resultin


(e.g., psychiatrists, nurses, and other medical professionals), community leaders, and those with lived experience.
law enforcement agencies often are skeptical of participating
in research studies without having a voice in the design and implementat


enda to support police responses to PEH. These needs include finding ways to better define the nature and scope of homelessness to assess the needs of these communities. The needs also involve develop- ing a better understanding of related issues, su


se individuals and provided a brief description of the workshop’s focus areas. Ten of the ini- tial 25 declined participation, although four of the ten people
who declined provided an alternate potential attendee from their organization who we subseq


ators had the potential to influence the questions they posed to the group and how they phrased those questions. This also could introduce bias that could influence the findings.
To develop and prioritize a list of technology and policy issues that a


oner workloads, other staffing concerns, and societal concerns.
After the participants rated the needs displayed on a particular slide (i.e., for either importance or probability of success), we displayed a histogram-style summary of participant resp


ve to the others. To collect these assessments, we printed the entire tiered list and distributed it to the participants. This step allowed the participants to see all of the ranked needs collected across the day-and-a-half work- shop, providing a to


ach need.
Figure A.2. Example Slide for Rating the Probability of Success of a Need
  6b. What is the probability of success?
Issue: Most U.S. responses to homelessness are “siloed” into, for example, law enforcement, service provision, and individua


actices with respect to assembling “home plans” for people who are preparing for release from a correctional system.
   NOTE: Shaded cells indicate that up or down votes were not possible (e.g., Tier 1 is the top tier, so it was impossible to upvote


’s new tier after the third-round score adjustment is shown by the connected circle with a dotted border.
 Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3
Round 2
          Round 3
        8
6
Number of needs
4
2
0
40 50 60
40 50 60
 Expected value score
Tier 2 score range
22


best practices where agen- cies can make effective connections with services.
• Conduct evaluations of the existing diversion and deflec- tion programs (i.e., alternatives to the justice system) that some agencies and jurisdictions are implementing.


ce and impact of this problem.
• Conduct research to identify the gaps, costs, risks, and benefits of various levels of behavioral health services.
• Conduct research to identify the most-important types of data and identify approaches and tools for


s is not able to consider the full range of public expenditures.
PEH often have frequent contacts with the elements of the justice system (law enforcement, courts, and corrections) and, as a result, affect required resources.
Homelessness often resul


public officials to find “board and lodging” for PEH in New York State (Callahan v. Carey, 1979). A more recent example holds to the entire U.S. Ninth Circuit, Martin v. City of Boise, where individuals could not be criminally penalized for sleeping


al review boards to ensure human sub- ject protection, the latter challenge of denying benefit might be easier to address in practice. If the social service benefit (to include not only outcomes but also potential costs and unintended consequences)
i


/RR3064.html
Heilbrun, Kirk, David DeMatteo, Kento Yasuhara, Stephanie Brooks-Holliday, Sanjay Shah, Christopher King, Anne Bingham DiCarlo, Danielle Hamilton, and Casey LaDuke, “Community- Based Alternatives for Justice-Involved Individuals with Sev


ner, Karen Destorel Brown, Mary Cunningham, and Noah Sawyer, Rethinking Local Affordable Housing Strategies: Lessons from 70 Years of Policy and Practice, Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy and the Urban I


 2020.
Shelton, Katherine H., Pamela J. Taylor, Adrian Bonner, and Marianne van den Bree, “Risk Factors for Homelessness: Evidence from a Population-Based Study,” Psychiatric Services, Vol. 60, No. 4, 2009, pp. 465–472.
Shinn, Marybeth, Ending Homele


ona State University. Finally, we are thankful for the contributions of the anonymous reviewers from the U.S. Department of Justice.
The RAND Justice Policy Program
RAND Social and Economic Well-Being is a division of the RAND Corporation that seeks


n criminal justice, homeland security, and terrorism preparedness. His areas of examination have included safety management in large-scale emergency response operations, the equip- ment and technology needs of criminal justice agencies and emergency


those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the Depart- ment of Justice, the RAND Corporation, or the organizations represented by any of the workshop participants.
Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights
This document and


 Risk and Needs Assessments
in Prisons
Identifying High-Priority Needs for Using Evidence- Based Practices
Joe Russo, Michael J. D. Vermeer, Dulani Woods, and Brian A. Jackson
Despite a slight decline in the prison population in 2017 and 2018, signif


 A consumer guide should be developed to assist agen- cies in determining which questions to ask when consid- ering acquiring and implementing a new RNA tool.
• A research organization (e.g., the National Academy of Sciences, National Institute of Ju


dation, resources needed to administer the assessment, information technology implications) before investing in an RNA tool.
Delivering effective interventions or programming to address
the criminogenic needs of inmates as identified by RNA tools acc


t Bucklen
Pennsylvania Department of Corrections
Anne Cummins
Federal Bureau of Prisons, Minnesota
Grant Duwe
Minnesota Department of Corrections
Michelle Gantt
Federal Bureau of Prisons, New York
Zachary Hamilton
Washington State University
Kyle Jac


em have not translated into sustained behavioral change, and efforts to rehabilitate inmates have been generally ineffective.
 4
 Prison systems are highly complex organizations, and change can be difficult.
predict recidivism with approximately 70-p


gislative initiatives at the state and federal levels are driving the use of RNA tools in correctional agencies. These initiatives often are part of larger, comprehensive reform packages that are designed to reduce prison populations and recidivism.


ke it challenging to sustain EBP initiatives. For example,
the average tenure for a state corrections agency executive is
less than four years (Innes, 2015). In the BOP, wardens are frequently transferred between institutions by design. Although exec


essary program- ming might not be available in every institution, or they could lead to long waiting lists for individuals who need specific programming. Furthermore, some inmates might be released before they receive important programming, because t


ly lower the effectiveness of the tool in that setting. Agencies need to ensure that staff are qualified to administer the assessment and that they receive initial and follow-up training on the tool. Quality assurance methods also can help maintain i


f the First Step Act. Ultimately, a group of 15 experts was convened (see the Participants box for a full list of names and affiliations).
The participants were brought together for a two-day workshop. During the morning of the first day, project sta


ization exercise.
RESULTS
Over the course of the two-day workshop, participants identi- fied a total of 50 needs related to the use and effective deploy- ment of RNA tools in prison. The needs were organized
into four major themes: organizational iss


ted that security and treatment objectives are complementary in nature rather than competing interests. Effective programming can- not take place in an institution that is not safe and secure. It is also true that the proper application of RNA tools,


ons so that there is a better understanding of what works and why.
• Develop infrastructure for ongoing support for research to produce the evidence around new programs.
• Develop criteria (e.g., minimum qualifications) for curricu- lum facilitators.


nifest in many ways (e.g., decreased capacity to administer assessments or deliver meaningful interventions), but one high-priority need focused on the difficulties that agencies face in simply maintaining situational awareness with respect to EBPs.


and objective criteria by which to measure performance, such as various cost measures, data ownership and management considerations, and training or recertifica- tion specifications. Agencies would benefit from independent evaluation, which might yi


 every two to five years, while others indicate that the frequency of revalidation depends more on
the type of assessment instrument used and how it was devel- oped (Casey et al., 2014). The participants noted that agencies would benefit from indepen


ology system infrastructure. The participants noted that this issue will become more important in the future as tools are expected to become increasingly automated.
Administration of Assessments
The participants identified three high-priority needs t