e              RestrictivePermissive              RestrictiveThe Magnitude and Sources of Disagreement Among Gun Policy Experts, Second Edition42or partner (15-percent reduced risk) and child (15-percent reduced risk). In contrast, the
restrictive g


cies that achieve one set of objectives while the other class seeks to achieve a different set. A weakness of this analysis was that we had few survey respondents favoring permissive policies on which to estimate these relationships ( n = 16). Theref


fects differently. For example, is the relationship between the favorability rating for a policy and the estimate of the policy’s effect on firearm homicide the same for experts in the permissive class as for experts in the restrictive class? Do expe


cale. The addition of the ten interaction terms improved exact matches by too little to discern with two decimal digits, although it slightly improved the proportion of cases with predicted ratings within one scale point of the actual value.
TABLE 5


icted and Actual Favorability
Ratings for All Policies
Type of Match and ModelAll Favorability
Ratings
(n = 2,339)Permissive Class
Ratings
(n = 324) Restrictive Class
Ratings
(n = 2,015)
Exact match
Main effects only 0.60 0.55 0.61
Main eff


’s effect on firearm suicides was second-most influential in predicting favorability
ratings, and the standardized effect size was roughly half as great as that for firearm homi -
cides. Across all experts, policies associated with a one-standard-de


gh a policy’s expected effects on other outcomes, such as reducing firearm homicides, mass shootings, or property crime. Because our models control for expected effects of each policy on these other outcomes, the nonsignificant estimate for the effec


be expected whether or not any other policies were simultaneously introduced. Thus, the combined effect of multiple policies on firearm homicides (or other outcomes) is simply the multiplicative product of the effects on firearm homicide that the ex


single law is selected but does not provide estimates of the combined effects of multiple laws.
In Table 6.1, we provide two examples of policy combinations. First, we identified two of
the policies for which the two groups differed least in their


 net effects of any combination of laws on national outcomes. Additional details on the data sources used, assumptions made to gen -
erate state-level base rates on each outcome, and information on state laws as of January 1, 2021, are provided in Ap


ne map displays the results expected based on effect estimates by the permissive class, and the other map shows results expected based on estimates by the restric-tive class. Users can choose any of the ten outcomes to be displayed on the maps and ca


 and surrender of firearms by prohibited possessors. We labeled this group the restrictive  class because experts in this
group tend to favor more-restrictive policies on gun access and use.
In total, we received 26 usable responses from experts wh


s survey are representative of the opinions and estimates of the general population. We were able to divide our respondents into two highly distinct groups with clearly divergent opinions, but the general public may have a very different dis -
tribut


deaths, participation in hunting and sport shooting, legal acts of defensive gun use, and the right to bear arms.
In the 2020 survey, state prosecution of prohibited possessors seeking firearms was
described as follows:
This state law criminalizes a


icies. This group tended to support the view that firearm deaths
would be decreased by implementing the policies nationally, although there was less agree -
ment about whether property crime would increase or decrease. This group also estimated that


e concessions that those in the restrictive class might consider to improve the attractiveness of a bargain among stakeholders while still achieving many of the desired social benefits. For instance, according to our Gun Policy Expert-Opinion Tool, i


itude and Sources of Disagreement Among Gun Policy Experts, Second Edition62the effects of policies on a wide variety of outcomes is weak and that, in many cases, no rigor -
ous studies are yet available (Smart, Morral, et al., 2020). Across the 144


homi -
cides by a factor of 0.95 (IQR: 0.90–1.05).
Aside from these two of the 19 policies evaluated in the survey, the research review iden -
tified no other policies for which the weight of available evidence was strongly supportive of a particula


ifferences in policy favorability ratings, then, in a model predicting favorability ratings, estimates of the empirical effects of policies might explain favorability ratings in comparable ways for both groups of experts. On the other hand, if groups


r, across the policies we considered, differences in experts’ estimates about the
policies’ true effects usually concerned the magnitude of likely effects, not their direction. However, even when experts disagreed on the direction of effects, our re


g a permissive or restrictive approach—are often important expressions of their identification with various social groups on which they depend psychologically and economically (Kahan, 2017). There is compelling evidence that the public, experts, and


ition66permissive gun policies generally believed that a substantial percentage of a gun policy’s pos -
sible benefits of reducing firearm suicide or firearm homicide are offset by increases in non -
firearm homicide and suicide. They also believed t


rt et al., 2020) and homicide (Braga et al.,
2021; Cook, 2018; Zimring, 2004), this does not entirely address whether policies that produce population-level reductions in firearm suicides or homicides result in minimal offsetting effects on nonfirea


ific study of gun policies offers a promising available path for building consensus on gun policy. In 2020, for the first time in nearly 25 years, Congress appropriated funds for this kind of research, which we believe should be continued and broaden


s survey is part of a research project estimating the likely effects of a wide range of gun
policies, including both the benefits and harms of each. The results of this survey will provide
valuable information on policies most likely to protect ind


ided.]
[The policy should be bold in a text box and remain at the top of the page for the follow-up
questions.] RAND Survey of Firearms Experts711. Q1PX  I f a state implemented universal background checks , how much would firearm
suicides  change?


nge?
With the law, the property crime rate would be ____%  of what it was without the law
Less than
80%More than
120% 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 120%
No
changeRate DECREASES
by 20%Rate INCREASES
by 20%
 No opinion  [PROGRAMMER: radio but


 sometimes obtain them through pri -
vate sales that do not require background checks. Universal background checks require back -
ground checks prior to all transfers of firearms, including private sales over the internet, at
gun shows, and between


 when a child accesses a usable weapon
that was stored in a location where the owner should have known a child could access it.
Policy 9.  Surrender of firearms by prohibited possessors .
When a judge’s rulings place an individual in a class that


ent evidence they are not a high risk.
Policy 16.  Firearms prohibitions for individuals subject to domestic violence restraining orders.
This state law prohibits gun possession by individuals subject to domestic violence restrain -
ing orders. Each


arm suicides could INCREASE non-
firearm suicides if some of those individuals switch to other means of suicide. Alter -
natively, preventing firearm suicides could DECREASE non-firearm suicides if sui -
cides are contagious (i.e., each suicide puts


ientist
b. QP1
_2 Policy analyst
c. QP1
_3 Policy advocate
d. QP1
_4 Interested layperson
e. QP1
_5 Government official
f. QP1
_6 Congressional staff member
17. Q18
If you have comments or clarifications you would like us to consider, please p


.4 4.6 0.1 2
16 Firearm prohibitions for individuals subject to domestic violence restraining orders−2 −7 −1 −4 0 1 2 0 2.1 3.5 0.8 2
5 Required reporting of lost or
stolen firearms0 −5 0 −1 −1 0 0 0 0.9 1.5 0.3 2
14 The elimination of gun-free zone


 show the mean of the absolute value of the between-class differences in medians across all eight quantitative outcomes (1–8), across death outcomes (1–4), and across
other outcomes (5–8). Bold text indicates estimates for which there was higher-tha


to those with the least similarity, as described in Chapter Four.
a These columns show the mean of the absolute value of the between-class differences in medians across the two qualitative measures. Bold text indicates estimates for which there
was


the
overall opinion measure).
c These outcomes were not imputed and used responses from only the 2020 survey.Table B.3—Continued101APPENDIX C
Statistical Modeling of Experts’ Favorability
Ratings
In this appendix, we provide details and sensitivity


x responses to the ten policy effect questions. This had the effect of elim -
inating six respondents (i.e., six respondents provided at least one policy effect response for more than
half of the policies that they were asked about but did not provi


ed to have a 75-percent and 73-percent effect on homicide, respectively, would likely be equally favored; that is, a policy that saves 2,500 lives per year would receive a favorability rating similar to a policy that saves 2,700 lives per year.
To c


e, estimates are presented only as changes in percentage because accurate data on the number or rate of defensive gun use in the United States do not exist. For the two qualitative outcomes (the right to bear arms and individuals’ privacy), effect es


 included all states with extreme risk protection
order laws that allow for ex parte orders.
 –Fo
r prohibitions associated with domestic violence restraining orders, we included
all states with related laws that allow for ex parte orders and that


e incident occurred in connection to domestic violence or other criminal activity. Specifically, we used the number of events in which four or more people (including possibly the shooter) were shot and killed in the same general location and time, as


ction
of all gun owners nationally, as follows:
Popi * ORi* sales,
∑i (Popi * ORi)
where Popi is the state population, ORi is the state firearm ownership rate, and sales  is
the national 2018 domestic firearm sales estimate, calculated as the sum


d, Martin, Julian Christensen, Casper Mondrup Dahlmann, Asbjørn Mathiasen, and Niels Bjørn Grund Petersen, “The Role of Evidence in Politics: Motivated Reasoning and Persuasion Among Politicians,” British Journal of Political Science , Vol. 49, No. 3


al Bureau of Investigation, Crime in the United States 2018 , Uniform Crime Reporting
Program, 2019. As of December 12, 2020:  https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2018/crime-in-the-u.s.-2018
Galea, Sandro, and Roger D. Vaughan, “Tendrils of Hope in


 Control Is Wrong, Washington, D.C.: Regnery Publishing, Inc., 2003.
———, More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding Crime and Gun-Control Laws , 3rd ed., Chicago,
Ill.: University of Chicago Press, 2010.———, “A Look at the Facts on Gun-Free Zones,” Natio


Sanger-Katz, Margot, and Quoctrung Bui, “How to Reduce Mass Shooting Deaths? Experts
Rank Gun Laws,” New York Times , October 5, 2017.
Santhanam, Laura, “Most Americans Support These 4 Types of Gun Legislation, Poll Says,” PBS NewsHour, September


Who Seek to Purchase Handguns: Risk Factors and Effectiveness of Denying Handgun Purchase,” JAMA , Vol. 285,
No. 8, 2001, pp. 1019–1026.
———, Effectiveness of Denial of Handgun Purchase by Violent Misdemeanants, Final Report ,
presented to the Nati


Developing Long-Term
Socioeconomic
Strategy in Israel
Institutions, Processes, and
Supporting Information
Howard J. Shatz, Steven W. Popper, Sami Friedrich,
Shmuel Abramzon, Anat Brodsky, Roni Harel, Ofir Cohen
Prepared for the Prim


ment
officials in developing means by which Israel could create a long-term socioeconomic strategy. The task force was appointed by the Prime
Minister and Minister of Finance in spring 2010 and was led by the
head of the National Economic Council


 demographic behavior, education and training, labor markets, social welfare policy, immigration, inter -
national development, financial decisionmaking, and issues related to aging and retirement with a common aim of understanding how policy and soc


.... 62
Tables
 3.1. Overview of Interviews Conducted with Israelis on Socioeconomic Strategy in Israel
 ................................... 15
 6.1. Case-Study Conclusions and Recommendations for Gap 1,  Lack of Involvement by the Political Leadersh


ess of cre-xiv    Developing Long-Term Socioeconomic Strategy in Israel
ating the foundations for such a strategy. This document suggests the
institutions for doing so.
To respond to this question, the RAND Corporation and Shaldor
Strategy Consulti


tioning strategy to policies and their implemen -
tation
• inadequate measurement and evaluation of policy interventions.
The interviews and our discussions with government officials also
revealed unease as to whether the government had a common vis


ernments that are elected, not individual officeholders.
The distinction is important because of the parliamentary concept of shared responsibility,
which, in turn, is the basis for government agreements. These play a large part in parliamen -
tary


erm problems; and detailed plans for specific socio -
economic programs to be promoted by the government.
5. Create a mechanism, led by the professional-level socioeconomic strategy forum, for managing the plans for socioeconomic pro -
grams selected


CD as a whole. And
with only two exceptions, starting in 2000, annual inflation as mea -
sured by the GDP deflator has been lower than that of the world and
the OECD (World Bank, 2014).
However, Israel faces a variety of economic and social challen


r School, New York University.Introduction    3
• Analyze the evaluation and monitoring processes in current strat -
egy formation.
• Identify the gaps in current strategy-formation institutions, pro -
cesses, information, and evaluation and monitori


ate,
we discuss alternative arrangements, as well as pros and cons. A com -
panion report describes key methods for taking a strategic perspective
and conducting long-term socioeconomic strategic analysis (Popper et
al., 2015).5CHAPTER TWO
Strateg


red to be the peak of the policy pyramid in
terms of importance of its practitioners (usually the chief executive and
his or her staff) and its purpose (to set the overall direction of the
nation, the government, or a governmental department). But


ction,
about doing something” (2011, p.  87).3 Other definitions note that
security, see Douglas C. Lovelace, Jr., director of the U.S. Army War College Strategic Stud -
ies Institute, in Yarger, 2006, p. v.
3 For example, Rumelt identifies “contai


 prior hypotheses. Strategic early warning would encompass the longer-term
trends or challenges that are discovered from the observe and orient steps. Without this prior analysis, they might be overlooked, so strate-gies and their accompanying polic


 focus on how strategic planning can support the strategic perspective. We also define other terms useful to the strategy process.
Strategic planners and planning are best viewed not as a source
of strategies but as creating analytic inputs to takin


ion in
the thinking process. (Mintzberg, 1994, p. 25)
Considering how to implement a strategy over the long term can pro -
vide a test of whether that strategy is feasible.
This suggests that taking a strategic perspective also involves con -
sideri


d
potential solutions; thinking about necessary actions, how they can be coordinated, and what their effects might be; and taking account of
constraints and uncertainty. Institutions and processes, as discussed in
this document, would then support


sive interviews, conducted by Shaldor, of those who currently are serving or have served the government of Israel in
senior positions. Other interviews included observers from outside the
government whom the project team felt would be valuable sour


rspective in policy development in Israel.
Our conclusions reflect areas of widespread agreement.
Second, as discussed in the previous chapter, there is no specific
normative model of strategy development and the use of a strategic perspective that


focusing on tapping into opportunities offered by the global technology revolution.
The current strategy’s achievements, which include economic sta -
bility and a high growth rate, were made possible by the professional and institutional capabilities


ionalize them at the govern -
mental level.
Characteristics of the Israeli Government
The Israeli system of government has three characteristics that any
reform proposals must take into account. First, compared with the
U.S. system, there is weaker


n of this document, we use the term cabinet when we refer to the collectivity of the PM and the ministers—
the elected political leaders.20    Developing Long-Term Socioeconomic Strategy in Israel
Interministerial Processes
The Israeli government has


3.1
Institutions Involved in Strategic Approaches and Policy Management
NOTE: Operational authorities are government institutions that have operational
missions and mandates. They report to ministries and include such institutionsas the Israel Defens


of 2013 had 31 ministers, of whom 15 were members of the socioeconomic cabinet.The Strategic Perspective and Israel’s Socioeconomic Challenges    23
nomic, social, and civic issues. In that capacity, the PMO DG is respon -
sible for initiating and l


D.-level research capacity or a statistical staff.
The NEC’s activity has not yet been grounded in legislation, and
it functions in a slightly different manner from the one assigned to it by
the original government decision, which stipulated its ro


on the PM’s agenda and requiring cross-ministerial coordination. It has recently developed a tracking system to monitor the implementa -
tion phases of government decisions.
The Ministry of Finance
Budget Department
The Budget Department is the body


legated directly
to them.
As a result of these shared management responsibilities, MOF
DGs usually focus on promoting one or two major reforms during their terms in office, whereas department heads enjoy considerable auton -
omy in their individual


dependent position vis-à-vis the government.
Government Ministry Policy Planning Departments
Ministerial policy planning units exist in several government minis -
tries.7 Most of these units were established in the previous five years as
part of a p


-
tion of the annual budget proposal, performs its own economic evalu -
ation, and proposes annual targets ahead of the budgetary discussions.
Despite this process, the budget does not necessarily reflect a stra -
tegic perspective on Israel’s socioe


the need for multiyear allocations. Furthermore, the submission of minis -
try plans is not fully integrated into the budgeting process.
Except for the budgeting process and the ministerial planning
process, there are currently no other formally str


red to as the Trajtenberg Committee after
its head, the former director of the NEC, Manuel Trajtenberg.32    Developing Long-Term Socioeconomic Strategy in Israel
Another example of this type of one-time deliberative process is
the socioeconomic ag


, as suggested by the report of the
Committee for Evaluating Employment Policy in Israel (the Eckstein report) among others, numerous bodies have shared responsibility but suffered from lack of coordination (Committee for Evaluating Employ -
ment Po


periodic reviews
of the state of the economy, and members of its staff are frequently
involved in professional discussions held by the MOF DG. Neverthe-
less, according to several of our interviewees, at present, the depart -
ment is not an integra


 are supported by the MOF’s computer systems. Government offices seem to be undergoing a significant upgrading of the computer infrastructure designed to monitor and control the outputs and out -
comes of their own activities.
In recent years, the PM


7
their strategies, and integrating information into those institutions and
processes.39CHAPTER FOUR
International Comparisons of Socioeconomic
Strategy Development and Implementation
Countries around the world have faced the problem of how to inco


er,
more-detailed information about the daily routines of strategy units
and strategy development is difficult to capture in our case studies.
Institutions
Some of our case-study countries have formal institutions with legal foundation, and others


e central focus for strategic assessment. Creating and protecting
institutions and processes for developing strategies and maintaining a
1 Functions may also be vulnerable, although we have encountered fewer cases in which a
strategy organization


uirements and engagement of the head of government can create and maintain demand for a strategic approach to chal -
lenges. Creating a culture within the government that will value
such an approach could be more difficult but will also provide
dem


ium-term strategies we reviewed.
Guiding and monitoring progress of strategy development and
implementation often involve interministerial committees of higher-level civil servants who may prepare the ground for decisions in simi -
lar committees of


 research by subject-matter experts.
• Stakeholders and sources outside the strategy unit and the gov -
ernment should be engaged early and often in the development of strategic approaches to challenges. Although publication may not be appropriate fo


untries. In Denmark, rather than having a dedicated strategy staff, the PMO has a domestic policy staff of around ten people, usually
recruited from the MOF but also containing a few experts in different
policy areas from the other ministries. They


ction to scenario planning, tools for thinking systematically about the future, facilitation skills for running a foresight process, commu -
nicating and presenting the results of exercises for visualizing potential 48    Developing Long-Term Socioec


s-on approach to overseeing government policy development and imple-
mentation. However, strategic practice is also backed by the Budget
Transparency and Accountability Act (2000), which requires an overall strategy, a budget with a three-year fisca


olve the line ministries in filling in the details of strategic directions. In part, giving civil servants in line ministries
room for maneuver also helps foster active, personal engagement, we
were told. In fact, our conversations suggested that,


such as officials from within the PMO, can have more influence on current policy but are likely to have less influence regarding difficult
problems that must be approached across governments or with which
the current government does not want to dea


ariat; the rest of International Comparisons of Socioeconomic Strategy Development    53
the council discusses and comments on the report. The reports receive
significant press coverage, and the forecasts provide one input into the
national budget.


rity interministerial programs
(Finnish Ministry of Justice, 1999).
2 The document serves as a form of
coalition agreement. The government also writes a term government
implementation plan for the top priorities; this is issued several months
aft


 Columbia, which (as noted earlier) produces a ten-year strategy along with a three-year fiscal framework. The ten-
year strategies have included goals along with broad policy directions.
For example, the 2006 strategy had as a goal making British C


n on Policy Planning were divided into
subgroups by expertise, met in subcommittee meetings, and reported to the head of the commission. The commission head, in turn, would
work with senior staff members—government officials—to determine
the feasi


of the Ministry of Trade
and Industry, which studies trends and their economic implications (Lee, 2011).58    Developing Long-Term Socioeconomic Strategy in Israel
Occasionally, the institution that can provide long-term think -
ing is not formally


rnment that took office in 2011 identified three strategic priorities. For each priority, the implementation plan identifies a coordinating ministry, responsible ministers, and cooper -
ating ministries. For example, for the strategic priority “reduc


nistry of
Economic Affairs and the Interior produces a biennial economic report
about the same time as the report of the Economic Council. Our inter -
views indicated that the two reports are considered the most important
and highest-quality input


al engagement lets officials test their ideas and learn new ideas that may be helpful.
Governments use the publication of formal strategic documents
as a tool to engage the public, coordinate across government, and pro -
vide support for priorities


Power by 2030 . This
was published in 2008, toward the end of President Roh’s term. Our
interviews suggested that it made little difference to concrete policy
actions. Likewise, the Presidential Council for Future and Vision under President Lee pr


rts of new institutions and processes in legislation or government decisions to start to create demand
and a culture of strategy
4. enhancement of line ministry strategy units
5. connections between the new strategy unit linked to the PMO and analys


views of the gaps.
Gap 1. Lack of Involvement by the Political Leadership
There is widespread recognition that, ultimately, strategy must come
from the engagement of political leaders. However, the government infrastructure for infusing a strategic


efined by urgent and critical
issues that require an immediate response. There is little preparation
regarding socioeconomic challenges for which better or more-coherent
policies could have been developed had there been more foresight, anticipatio


eves] that, when [it stops] spending,
[it is] “saving the country.”
The PMO has no one [who] directs policy in ministries, asks
questions of policy, and challenges them to see the whole forest rather than the trees.
The NEC wrote a nice document on


r the development of
strategies, is underdeveloped. There are also no formal platforms or
mechanisms in place for allowing effective public participation in these areas. The 2011 Trajtenberg Committee provided the first prominent
and only signific


 not even sufficient sharing within the
research division.
Gap 6. Difficulties Transitioning Strategy to Policies and
Their Implementation
In recent years, a considerable number of policy programs have been
developed, but implementation has falter


y in Israel
assessment throughout the course of the policy’s life cycle—from for -
mulation, through the pilot, to the complete implementation and
beyond. Among other examples, our interviewees mentioned plans in
the employment arena, which, they f


 we describe possible alterna -
tives as well. Discussing alternatives is especially important because we
do not have full information regarding the entire spectrum of variables
that may affect future institutional composition and processes and, sp


nd facilitating the creation of an unbro -
ken continuum from policy formulation to its implementation. These units should be assisted on a regular basis by inputs from external stakeholders and experts.
• Action plans for the government term, upon i


al-level strategy forum led by the PM to serve as the focal point
for the adoption of a strategic perspective, decisionmaking regarding strategy development, and oversight of the management of the strategic process.
2. Form a professional-level soci


gic alternatives, and strategic early warningHold dedicated events organized by the strategy staff unit.
Have the head of the NEC brief the PM on
strategic processes regularly.
Improved coordination by the PMO Form a political-level strategy forum.


f its outputs and decisions for approval by the entire cabi -
net, would address the international case-study finding on the need for engagement of the head of government and the gap identified regard -
ing the involvement of the political leadership


tegy Form a socioeconomic strategy staff unit.
Establish a council of external
stakeholders or technology-enhanced methods for eliciting opinions and participation.
Continuous use of a strategic perspective in scanning socioeconomic issues and devel


lanning (see
recommendation 6). One risk in establishing such a professional-level
forum is that it could become a pro forma organization that accom -
plishes little, with substance discussed and decisions made more infor -Table 6.6
Case-Study Conc


taff unit annual report.
Publish the monitored progress of
socioeconomic goal attainment.90    Developing Long-Term Socioeconomic Strategy in Israel
of education and relevant professional experience would be allowed to
apply for the position.3 The


es as requiring action. This
combination of potential areas for strategic focus and strategic alterna -
tives in the selected areas would serve as a menu from which specific governments, aided by the professional-level forum, would select spe-cific


erve as its analytical component or manage its links to the political leadership and policy
processes.
A major risk to creating a strategy unit is that it could become a
bureaucracy that stagnates over time, protecting its own institutional interes


l to account for the realities of implementation, saddling the government
with unrealistic goals and programs. As a result, its creation will need considerable care.
Recommendation 5. Create a Mechanism for Managing the Plans for
the Socioeconomic


 by the strategy
staff unit of the PMO (professional coordination and guidance) and
the PMO’s Policy Planning Department (methodological guidance).
An effort to build strategy capabilities in government ministries
should be initiated. In governmen


 are two options regarding the professional team to coordinate the council’s operation. The first is an external professional team. In this
configuration, it would be much easier for stakeholders in the council
to raise important issues that are po


ia,
there is a risk of including malicious participants who want to harm the process. Moderated sessions could mitigate this, although at a cost
and at a risk to credibility if the public perceives the moderator as bar -
ring unpopular opinions.
So


he past. How -
ever, further work will be needed to determine whether this task
can be carried out within existing resources and other constraints.
4 Information may also be found at RAND Corporation, undated. Anticipating and Responding to Socioeco


g are some of
the additional mechanisms whose adoption we recommend for this
purpose.
• formal arrangements
 –Ground the establishment of the strategy staff unit and its roles, budget, and annual reporting duties in a government decision (a formal


ositive way, Israeli policymakers would benefit from applying the same strategic perspective to these new institutions and processes
as they would to socioeconomic issues. In other words, they should
observe their operations, orient themselves towa


11, 2010/2011 , Victoria, B.C., July 20, 2011. As of May 29, 2014:
http://www.fin.gov.bc.ca/ocg/ma/10_11/BBMAA.pdf104    Developing Long-Term Socioeconomic Strategy in Israel
British Columbia Public Service, “Executive Compensation: BC Public Servic


 Finance.
Drezner, Daniel W., “The Challenging Future of Strategic Planning,” Fletcher
Forum of World Affairs, Vol. 33, No. 1, Winter–Spring 2009, pp. 13–26.
Finnish Ministry of Justice, The Constitution of Finland  (731/1999, Amendments
up to 1112


” Survival , Vol. 52,
No. 3, June–July 2010, pp. 159–178.Hennessey, Keith, “Working in the West Wing: Senior Staff,” KeithHennessey.com ,
May 29, 2009. As of May 29, 2014:
http://keithhennessey.com/2009/05/29/senior-staff/
Hjortdal, Marie, “Politi


ister’s Office, [State budget formulations in Israel: Fiscal rules, budgetary process and the arrangements law] [in Hebrew], March 2009. As of January 7, 2013: http://www.pmo.gov.il/BranchesAndUnits/eco/Documents/finaldoc.pdf
NEC— See National Econom


Denmark, “Economic Model (ADAM),” undated; referenced April 24,
2012. As of May 29, 2014: http://www.dst.dk/en/TilSalg/ADAM.aspx
Statutes of British Columbia, Budget Transparency and Accountability Act ,
Chapter 23, July 6, 2000. As of June 2, 2014


talog/world-development-indicators
Yarger, Harry R., Strategic Theory for the 21st Century: The Little Book on Big
Strategy , Carlisle, Pa.: U.S. Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, Letort
Paper 641, February 2006. As of May 29, 2014: ht


Netherlands, “Is the Cabinet Obliged to
 Follow the Council’s Advice?” undated; referenced October 12, 2012. As of May
:29, 2014
http://www.ser.nl/en/faq%20and%20links.aspx#6
General Brochure: The Social and Economic Council of the” ,———
.Netherlands


, Strategic Plan 2006/7–2008/9, Victoria, February
.2006
 Public Law 103-62, Government Performance and Results Act, August 3, 1993.
:As of June 2, 2014
:http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d103:s.00020
 RAND Corporation, “Welcome to the American


nomi-skal-strammes-gevaldigt-op
 Institute for Government, One Year On: The First Year of Coalition
 Government—ACollection of Views, London, May 2011. As of May 29, 2014:
http://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/ ﬁles/publications/One%


f
.CESifo Group, “The Joint Economic Forecast,” undated
Commission on the Reform of Ontario’s Public Services, Public Services for
,Ontarians: A Path to Sustainability and Excellence, Queen’s Printer for Ontario
:As of May 29, 2014 .2012
http://www.


Model? Consensus
 Government in Practice,” Parliamentary Affairs, Vol. 53, No. 4, October 2000,pp.
.697–709
 Angerman, William S., Coming Full Circle with Boyd’s OODA Loop Ideas: An
 Analysis of Innovation Diffusion and Evolution, Wright-Patterson Ai


 ,“הלאומי  הביטוח  של והחברתית  הכלכלית  היציבות  לבחינת  מודל2011)לאומי לביטוח  המוסד
.לאומי לביטוח  מוסד: ירושלים.  ביוני18
 קרן: ירושלים?“  לאבטלה  בהכרח  מובילה  בישראל  ההזדקנות  האם2007)  נועה,  יחזקאל
.מילקן קורת
 הלאומית  המועצה:  ירושלים“,


שלה  חובות  את גם לפרט  ניתן
 המדינה  בתקציב  ובשילובה  נדה‘האג ביישום  ההתקדמות  מצב
.הממשלה  ובפעולות
• פורמליים  בלתי צעדים
 – אסטרטגיה  ותהליכי  מוסדות  של שוטפת  תקשורתית  חשיפה
 ופעילותם  קיומם  על שמידע  להבטיח  כדי התקשורת  באמצעי
.סדיר באופן


וסדות  לראות  נוטים היטב ומבוססים  קיימים  ומוסדות  הואיל,  יותר עוד
.איום או שיבוש  חדשים  ותהליכים
 הסדרים  של במתכונת  תמריצים  ליצור  יש, זה במצב  בהתחשב
 האמצעים  בין. ותהליכים  מוסדות  אותם את ויחזקו  יבטיחו  אשר, פורמליים
; הממשלה  במשרדי  לאס


ודעות  את ולהגביר  שונים
 עשויות  בתהליך  ולהשתתף  דעתו את להביע  לציבור  המאפשרות  כאלה
 בו שיש דבר, בהן ולתמוך  אסטרטגיות  יוזמות  של הלגיטימיות  את לחזק
.זמן לאורך  כאלה יוזמות  של לקיימות  עליונה  חשיבות
 נבחרי  כמה נעזרו, האחרונות  בשנים.  תקדים


דכנית  אסטרטגית  פרספקטיבה  על שמירה
מרכזיים  מדדים  של וניתוח  מחקר  בסיס על, המשרד  של
 • האסטרטגיים  היעדים  בניסוח  לתמוך  כדי הצוות  עבודת  הובלת
 כהונת  למשך  המשרדית  התוכנית  של וניהול  ובניסוח  המשרד  של
 לתוכניות  ביחס  תשומה  תהווה  המשרדי


ת  מידע  החלפת,  המשרדית  המדיניות  בקביעת
. המשרדיות  היחידות  בקרב הממשלתי  העדיפויות  סדר ותקשור  המשרדים
 תיאום ) מ“רה במשרד  לאסטרטגיה  היחידה  בידי יופקד  הפורום  תיאום
 הנחיות ) מ“רה במשרד  וחברה  לממשל  והאגף(  המקצועי  בתחום  והנחיה
(.מתודול


כזי  סיכון
 על בהגנה  תעסוק,  הזמן במהלך  שיתקשח  ביורוקרטי  למנגנון  להפוך
. המדיניות  לקובעי  רלוונטית  בלתי ותהפוך  שלה המוסדיים  האינטרסים
, מ“רה משרד  ל“ולמנכ  לכלכלה  הלאומית  המועצה  לראש  היחידה  הכפפת
 לשירות  מחוץ או אחרים  ממשרדים  זמני הש


רד  כל של האחריות  בתחומי
 לבין המשרדים  פעילות  בין התיאום  ושיפור  משרדיות- בין אסטרטגיות
.הממשלה  יעדי
 • של חיצונית  מועצה   עם ותיאום  פעולה  לשיתוף  מנגנון  גיבוש  בחינת
7 המלצה  ראו )ומומחים  עניין בעליישראל  במדינת  טווח ארוכת  אקונומית- סוצי


לכלה  הלאומית  המועצה  ראש בעבודת  התומך,  הקיים  הצוות  מלבד
. לו שתדווח  לאסטרטגיה  יחידה  להקים  יש, מ"לרה הכלכלי  כיועץ בתפקידו
 בהתייעצות,  לכלכלה  הלאומית  המועצה  ראש ידי על יתמנה  היחידה  ראש
 מועמדים  רק כי תבטיח  המדינה  שירות  נציבות  ואיל


 יחידות  שיפור  לאסטרטגיה  היחידות  וחיזוק  לים“סמנכ פורום  הקמת
המשרדיות
לקדנציה  אסטרטגיה   גיבושכלכלית  חברתית  לאסטרטגיה  היחידה  הקמת
, וכלכלה  חברה  בנושאי  אסטרטגית  נדה‘אג גיבוש
רלוונטיות  תפוקות  כולל
מ“רה משרד  מצד התיאום  שיפור  חברתית  אס


טף  בניהול  שעוסק  בכיר ניהולי  לדרג אסטרטגיה
 אסטרטגיה  יחידת‘  ר שמינוי  מומלץ  היה, לכך בהתאם.  רלבנטיות  על שמירה
. מ“רה משרד  ל“מנכ עם בשיתוף  לכלכלה  הלאומית  המועצה‘  ר ידי על ייעשה
 דורשות  טווח וארוכת  רחבה  והסתכלות  רלבנטיות  על שמירה,  שנ


ות  פרספקטיבות  בין קישור
והתקציב  המנוסחת  האסטרטגיה  של חברתית  אסטרטגיה  לניהול  מקצועי  פורום  הקמת
כלכלית
כלכלית  חברתית  לאסטרטגיה  היחידה  הקמתישראל  במדינת  טווח ארוכת  אקונומית- סוציו אסטרטגיה  פיתוח84
 החברתי  היום סדר את ולאשר  ולהנחות  טו


 האסטרטגי
 היחידה  ידי על שיאורגנו  ייעודיים  אירועים  קיום
לאסטרטגיה
לקדנציה  אסטרטגיה   גיבוש  בגיבוש  הפוליטית  ברמה  האסטרטגיה  פורום  את לערב
 נלווים  ותוצרים  כלכלית- החברתית  האסטרטגית  נדה‘האג
 אסטרטגית  פרספקטיבה  של מתמשך  יישום
 וגיבוש  כל


 .עמם והתמודדות  אקונומיים- סוציו אתגרים  של חיזוי
 • ובמהלך  הממשלה  הקמת  עם שיגובשו,  לקדנציה  פעולה  תכניות
 לבין הממשלתיות  התוכניות  בין מקשר  גורם להוות  צריכות  כהונתה
 חברתיים  לאתגרים  ביחס  אסטרטגית  פרספקטיבה  גיבוש  תהליכי
.כלכליים
 • של


דים
 • החברתי  בתחום  אתגרים  כלפי אסטרטגית  פרספקטיבה  של אימוץ
 של והניהול  כלכליות  חברתיות  אסטרטגיות  של הגיבוש,  כלכלי
 כחלק  להתבצע  צריכים  אלה כל – מהם הנובעים  המדיניות  עקרונות
 הפוליטיים  המנהיגים,  דהיינו ) הממשלה  מליאת  מפעילות  נפרד ב


 אפקטיבי  אינו הזה הכלי מדוע בדק לא איש אך, בתעשייה
[מיעוטים  של] הנגישות  את לשפר  ניסה לא ואיש מיעוטים  אוכלוסיות
.יישומו  את לאפשר  כדי אליו
 סיכום
 רבים בישראל  קיימים3 בפרק שנדון כפי, כי עולה בישראל  הפערים  מניתוח
 מפרספקטיבה  כלכליות  חברתיות


ים  החרדים  בנושא  לטפל  יש כי נכונה  זיהו המדיניות  קובעי
.יישום אין אבל תוכנית  יש לכן
 תהליכי  לבין התוכניות  בין הרופף  החיבור  את כללו שהוזכרו  הסיבות
 לשלבי  במעבר  מחלוקות  לפתרון  פורמליים  מנגנונים  היעדר,  התקצוב
 של היישום  לצורך  משרדי- ב


קראת,  לדוגמה
2.האוצר  במשרד  שולבה  ועדה אותה, אישיים  קשרים  באמצעות,  יותר מאוחרים
 סובבים  הדיונים.  המקומיות  הרשויות  עם ומתן משא שום מתקיים  לא
 מועברת[האחריות] ושאר התקציב  את לאזן כיצד השאלה  סביב רק
 המקומיות  הרשויות  של יכולתן  של ניצול א


בנוגע  מדיניות  לגבי בסיסית  ממשלתית  עמדה  כיום אין
.שכזאת  עמדה  לגבש  מאוד ונחוץ בישראל  עירוניים
מדיניות  עקרונות  בגיבוש  משרדי- בין תיאום  היעדר3 פער
 תיאום  מאוד  מעט ויש אסטרטגית  פרספקטיבה  קיימת  שלא מאחר
 פעילויות  בין הקיימים  הקשרים,  וה


ים  הדברים  את ציינו שראיינו  המומחים
 ההחלטות  קבלת] .נבחרת  ממשלה  מחייבות . . .  גדולות  החלטות
[והממשלה  הממשלה  ראש] הממשלה  של התפקיד  זה[הללו
 כל. השאר  וכל נכים, שביתות –  מ“רה אל מגיעה  בעיה כל כמעט
.אליו מופנות  העיניים
 ועדת ישיבות  ועל המ


צירת  להתחיל  כדי ממשלה  בהחלטות
אסטרטגיה  צריכת  של
4 .השונים  במשרדים  לאסטרטגיה  יחידות  חיזוק
5 .  ותשומות  ניתוח  לתוצרי  החדשה  האסטרטגיה  יחידת  של קישור
ממשלתיים  חוץ מגורמים
6 .  של הקדנציה  תקופת  עם שתקושר  לממשלה  אסטרטגיה  גיבוש
חדשות  מ


  מנסחת  הממשלה,  לעיל צוין שכבר  כפי, בפינלנד
 בכל אחת פעם מפיקה  היא בנוסף.  הממשלתית  התוכנית  ליישום  ותוכנית
 אם, הבאות  השנים  עשרים  עד בעשר  העוסק  תחזית  דוח בחירות  תקופת
2011-ב החלה  שכהונתה,  האחרונה  הממשלה.  כהונתה  בתחילת  לא כי
 להכין


2 איור )בתעדוף  ולתמיכה  ממשלתי  פנים לתיאום,  הציבור  לגיוס ככלי
. שנים לעשר  אסטרטגית  תוכנית  מנסחת  הממשלה,  הבריטית  בקולומביה
 אחד וכל שנתית- תלת פיסקלית  ותוכנית  תקציב  מכין האוצר  משרד
 הללו התוכניות.  שנתית- תלת עבודה  תוכנית  שנה מדי מכין


ו המתאם  כמשרד  לשמש  מונה ובריאות  חברה  לענייני
. האחראים  כשרים  הוגדרו  החברתיים  והשירותים  הבריאות  ושר משרד
 עדיפות  למימוש  שונות  לפעולות  אחריות  הוטלה  התוכנית  במסגרת
 קשר אנשי רשת הוקמה,  בנוסף.  נוספים  שרים  על גם זאת אסטרטגית
 הרשת;


ל  הביניים  לטווח  אסטרטגיות  לגיבוש  כאמצעי,  בכירים
 פורמלי  תיאום  של דוגמאות  במספר  נתקלנו.  מדיניות  עקרונות  של והיישום
 של דוגמאות  פחות  הרבה  מצאנו  אך הביניים  לטווח  אסטרטגיות  של
 המופקדות  השונות  הוועדות.  הארוך  לטווח  אסטרטגיות  של פ


יתוח56
הארוך  לטווח  אסטרטגיות
 אסטרטגיה  מסמכי  למצוא  יותר נדיר, הביניים  לטווח לאסטרטגיות  בהשוואה
 המתייחסים(  היטב ומנוסחות  מוגדרות  אסטרטגיות  אפילו או )בסיס רחבת
 מסמכים,  המקרים  ברוב. דוגמאות  מספר  יש אך, יותר ארוכים  זמן לפרקי
, חיצוניים


006 ,הבריטית  קולומביה  מחוז)
 לטווח  פיסקליות  מסגרות  מספר  ניסחו  בדנמרק  שכיהנו  ממשלות
 משפטית  חובה עליהן שחלה  מבלי, עשור עד של תקופה  המכסות  הבינוני
 מעקרונות  בחלק  תמיכה  לגיוס  אמצעים  כלל זה תהליך.  זאת לעשות
 האסטרטגיות  בכל כמו. הבאות


סכם.  העבודה  ושוק
 בנפרד  המוגשות,  המשרדים  לתקציבי  החוק  הצעות  את מנחות  ואלה
.הפרלמנט  של לאישורו
 פוליטית  תוכנית  על וייתנו  יישאו  בפרלמנט  המיוצגות  הקבוצות,  הממשלה  ראש בחירת  לפני ”נאמר  לחוקה61 בסעיף2
 .הצהרה  של במתכונת,  הפרלמנט  לפני


הקשורים
 כלכליות  לאסטרטגיות  ועדה2009  במאי  מ“רה כינס, העולמי  הפיננסי
, נוספים  שרים ארבעה  ובהשתתפות  האוצר  שר בראשות,  חברים25 ובה
 הספר  בית ודיקן ועובדים  עסקים  נציגי, בכירים  שרים שני, שר מקום ממלא
Singaporean Economic)  סינגפור  של הלאומית


שר  הממשלות  כל של טיפול  המחייבות  מורכבות  בעיות
.עמן להתמודד  מעוניינת  אינה הנוכחית  הממשלה
 אחת היא2006-ו2005 בשנים  שפעלה  הדנית  הגלובליזציה  ועדת
, בוועדה.  כלכלית  חברתית  באסטרטגיה  שטיפלה  הוק-אד לוועדה  הדוגמאות
 ראש, אקדמיה  אנשי, שרים ח


ינלאומיות  השוואות
 ודרישות  מנהיגותי  חזון שבו לאופן  דוגמה  היא הבריטית  קולומביה
 שקיימנו  מהראיונות.  אסטרטגית  חשיבה  לטפח  כדי יחד חברו משפטיות
 אסטרטגיה  לראשונה  גובשה  כהונתו  שבמסגרת  הממשלה  שראש  עולה
 הדוק באופן  ופיקוח  אסטרטגית  חשיבה


לנו  מראיות  שלנו ההתרשמויות  את
.ביקוש  של ביותר  החזקים  המדרבנים  הגורמים  לשני באשר,  שבדקנו
 הממשלה  ראש מצד מחויבות  כוללת  הממשלה  ראש מצד מעורבות
 מדיניות  של בפיתוח  אסטרטגית  חשיבה  לכלול  המדינה  שירות  ראש או
 המחייבים  חוקים  רק לא כוללו


השונים  הסעיפים.  ולתהליכים  לתוכן  ונעבור  במוסדות  נתחיל.  כלכלית
.זהה בסדר  וערוכים  לעיל המובאת  התובנות  לרשימת  מקבילים
 ביכולות  ומאוישת  הממשלה  ראש של לבו בתשומת  הזוכה  לאסטרטגיה  יחידה
מקצועיות
 אתגרים  לבחון  שתפקידם  ייעודיים  צוותים  יש


וי
.לממשלה  מחוץ עניין בעלי או מומחים  ידי על שיוגשו  עזר
 • להיות  אמורה  לאסטרטגיה  ליחידה.  ביישום  יסייעו  לתקציב  קשרים
 לכהונת  אסטרטגיה  של הגיבוש  בעת תקציביים  תהליכים  על השפעה
 בייחוד,  זו לאסטרטגיה  תשומות  לספק  התקציב  אנשי ועל הממשלה


ר. אסטרטגית  פרספקטיבה
 לעוסקים  מיוחדת  הכשרה,  משרדיות  לאסטרטגיה  יחידות  של
 שבמסגרתו  מנגנון  ויצירת  הממשלה  משרדי  בתוך  באסטרטגיה
 ולתקציב  לאסטרטגיה  תשומות  במשרד  האסטרטגיה  אנשי תורמים
.המשרד  של
 • חברתית  אסטרטגיה  של וגיבוש  אסטרטגית


 חברתית  אסטרטגיה  של וגיבוש  אסטרטגית  פרספקטיבה  של נקיטה
 יחידה  של תגבורה  או מהקמתה  תועלת  יפיקו טווח ארוכת  כלכלית
 ותאויש  הממשלה  ראש של לבו בתשומת  שתזכה  לאסטרטגיה
 יותר חשובים  ומוסדות  שתהליכים  מכיוון.  חזקות  מקצועיות  ביכולות
 עשויה


ידי על שפורקה,  בריטניה  ממשלת  ראש של לאסטרטגיה
Institute for Government, 2011; UK Prime Minister’s Strategy Unit,) 2002-ב בלייר  טוני הממשלה  ראש ידי על
 והתפתחה  קיימים  ארגונים  שני בין משילוב  נוצרה  היא אלא, חדשה  יחידה  הייתה  לא מלכתחילה  היח


חות  כלכליות  חברתיות  סוגיות  בוחנות  הן שבו באופן  אסטרטגית
 לממשלה  הן שיועיל  באופן, אלה בנושאים  טווח ארוכת  אסטרטגיה  ומיישמות
 של הייחודיים  המאפיינים  אף על. בעקבותיה  שיבואו  לאלה  והן המכהנת
 אחרות  מדינות  של ומהכישלונות  מההצלחות  ללמוד


 התכנון  ותהליכי  השנתי  התקציב  הכנת  הם המרכזיים
, טווח ארוכת  מדיניות  של פיתוח  מונעת  שהשפעתם  וייתכן בונים גומלין קשרי
 אסטרטגית  פרספקטיבה  לנקוט  היכולת  בהינתן  להתאפשר  עשויה  שהייתה
 ואולם וניתוחים  נתונים  של שפע בנמצא  יש. כלכליות  חברתי


בות  לעתים
 אינו האגף  כרגע, שלנו מהמרואיינים  כמה של דבריהם  פי על, זאת ובכל
 לעתים  ורק האוצר  במשרד  ההחלטות  קבלת  מתהליך  נפרד בלתי חלק
 במקביל  כי לציין יש. תקציבים  באגף המדיניות  בניסוח  משתתף  הוא נדירות
, המופקדת,  ההכנסה  מס רשות  את האוצר


ה  ההערכה  ביכולות  דנים אנו מכן לאחרישראל  במדינת  טווח ארוכת  אקונומית- סוציו אסטרטגיה  פיתוח32
 החברתית  נדה‘האג היא שכזה פעמי-חד בחינה  לתהליך  נוספת  דוגמה
 על נוסח זה עמדה  נייר2007 ,מ“רה משרד2010-2008 לשנים  כלכלית
 אושר הוא. שלה הראשונה  הפעו


קל
 הבעיות  כי חשש מעלה  יישומן  לצורך  המתאימים  לגופים  כאלה  ועדות  של
 סוגיות  כי או, משרדים  מספר  של פעילותם  על המכבידות  המערכתיות
 גיבוש  לאחר  הולם  לטיפול  יזכו לא, שוטפים  ובקרה  ניהול  המחייבות
.האסטרטגיה
 כלכליות  חברתיות  בסוגיות  טיפו


ות  קטגוריות  בין הקצאות
 העדיפויות  לסדר  בהתאם(  ישנות  תוכניות  של ביטול  או )חדשות  תוכניות
 קיצוצים  כלל בדרך כולל זה חלק. תקציבים  אגף ידי על רבה במידה  שנקבע
 תהליך  את ישראל  ממשלת  החליפה,  והלאה2009 משנת.  משמעותיים
 הקצאות  על דיווח גם כול


 חברתיים  לאתגרים  התייחסות  של לגישה
, בנוסף.  עמם להתמודד  כדי מדיניות  עקרונות  של וגיבוש  אסטרטגית
 לגיבוש  מיוחדים  תהליכים  היום אף בה ומתקיימים  בעבר  בישראל  התקיימו
, וציבוריות  ממשלתיות  ועדות  למנות  ניתן אלה בין. טווח ארוכת  מדיניות  של
.


  את בוריין על המכירים  ומומחים  מקצוע  אנשי לרוב הם תקציבים
-המאקרו  מההישג  גדול חלק לזכותם  לזקוף  יש. בישראל  המדיניות  קביעת
, זאת עם. האחרונות  השנים  של החשובות  הכלכליות  והרפורמות  כלכלי
 ניכרת  במידה  להפריע  ונוטות  מוגזמות  האגף  סמכויות


ממשלתית  מדיניות  בפיתוח  מ“לרה המסייע  כמטה
 תפקידי,  לכלכלה  הלאומית  המועצה  קמה שבעקבותיה  הממשלה  החלטת
 מקצועית,  שיטתית  כלכלית  חשיבה  של קידום,  השאר  בין, הם המועצה
 על מתמנה  הוא. מ“לרה כלכלי  כיועץ מכהן המועצה  ראש. טווח וארוכת
 במסגרת  פ


עוסקים
 משרד  ל“מנכ. רקסי‘והצ הדרוזי,  הערבי  המגזר  של כלכלי  לפיתוח  הרשות
 בראש  גם האחרונות  ובשנים  שונות  הוק-אד ועדות  בראש  יושב גם מ“רה
 הממשלה  משרדי  כל לי“מנכ בו שחברים,  ממשלה  משרדי  לי“מנכ פורום
.סדירות  פגישות  מקיים  והוא
 במהלך  מ“ר


גרים  לזיהוי  עבר מוסדות
 בפיתוח  מעורבים  שהיו מוסדות  של מגוון בישראל  התקיימו2011 בשנת
 ושל כלכליים  חברתיים  לאתגרים  ביחס  אסטרטגיות  גישות  של ובניהול
 קשרי את מראה3.1 איור.  עמם להתמודד  כדי שאומצו  המדיניות  עקרונות
 המרכזיים  המוסדות.  הממשל


שראוי  הנקודות  אחת. אסטרטגית  מפרספקטיבה
 מוטל זאת ובכל תריסר  על עולה אינו העובדים  מספר,  הללו המוסדות
 כמו מגוונת  בחברה  המתעוררות  הסוגיות  אינספור  עם להתמודד  עליהם
 כמה עם במלחמה  נתונה  עדיין היא רשמי  באופן  אשר, בישראל  החברה
.משכנותיה19


 בהשוואה,  ראשית.  בחשבון  להביא  חייבת  לרפורמה
 בישראל ) המבצעת  הרשות  בין ברורה  פחות הפרדה  יש בישראל,  ב“בארה
 מערך  לכן(, הכנסת –  בישראל ) המחוקקת  הרשות  לבין( הממשלה–
 חזקה  המבצעת  הרשות.  יחסית  חלש הרשויות  שתי בין והאיזונים  הבלמים
 ל


 הכלכלית  במדיניות  שנקבעו  ביעדים  לעמוד  כדי נחוצים  הם כי סבורה  שהממשלה  החקיקה  ותיקוני  החוקים  כל
 לדבוק  ביכולת  פוגעים  שהם תחליט  הממשלה  אם, בכנסת  עברו שכבר  חוקים  לאיין כדי בהם שיש תיקונים  גם לכלול  עשוי
.הכלכלית  המדיניות  ביעדיישראל


ות  ראשי
 או בהווה  רשויות
אחריםלשעבר  כבכירים “סה
מ“רה משרד6 7 13
האוצר  משרד2 10 2 14
אחרים  משרדים4 7 11
אחריםא  ממשל  גופי3b4 1 8
המקומי  הממשל3 3
 תעשיינים  איגודי
עובדים  ואיגודי3 3
הפרטי  המגזר4 4
כ“סה15 28 13 56
 .  :הערה
 חברות,  גבוהה  להשכ


הצעד
, בישראל  עת באותה  ששלטה  האסטרטגיה  את להבין  היה בישראל
 היא כיצד, אסטרטגית  פרספקטיבה  פיתחה  ישראל  ממשלת  כיצד לבחון
 בתהליכי  שהתקיימו  הפערים  את ולזהות  שלה האסטרטגיה  את יישמה
 שהיה  כפי בישראל  המצב  את מתאר  זה פרק. ישראל  של האסטרטג


שנקיטת  מכך עולה
 גורמי  של הבחינה  גם. שונים  פעולה  נתיבי  של ובמעשיות  בהיתכנות
 צוות בין מלאה  הפרדה  ליצור  ניתן שלא מלמדת  באסטרטגיה  היישום
 להם לאפשר  כדי. הממשלה  של הפעולה  מערכי  יתר לבין כלשהו  אסטרטגי
 פועלת  כיצד להבין עליהם,  אסטרטגיה


יה  התוצאה336  ‘עמMintzberg 1994)
.אופרטיביים  מהלכים  לכלל האסטרטגיה  את המתרגמת,  יותר ארוך טווח
, בהכרח,  מחייבת  אינה אסטרטגית  מפרספקטיבה  לבעיות  התייחסות
 תוכניות  פיתוח  של במובן,  אסטרטגיות  תוכניות  יצירת  או אסטרטגי  תכנון
 מארבע  שעולה  כ


 .טובה
 תובנות  סמך על, יתרחשו  או יפעלו דברים  שבו לאופן ביחס מושכל  ניחוש
 בדיקת  שלאחר  ניחוש,  צבור וידע ידועים  עקרונות  של מבחן פי על גם אך
 קשורה  זה רעיון להבין  נוספת  דרך. אותו ולעדן  לשכלל  ניתן ההשערה
 ון‘ג קולונל  ידי על שפותח  החלטות  ק


 של אוסף
77 ‘עמ )המנחה  המדיניות  את לממש  במטרה  יחד
 ואף‘( גדולות  מטרות )’ יעד של מסוים  אלמנט  מכילות  אלה הגדרות
 שכל מציינות  אף ההגדרות  שתי. שזוהה  האתגר  עם להתמודדות  גישה
 להשיג  שתכליתן  מתואמות  פעולות  של אוסף מתארת  נתונה  אסטרטגיה
 מב


למעשה1
 ותכנון  תכנון,  אסטרטגיה  המונחים  את למזג נהוג רבים במקרים.  אסטרטגיה  למילה  מייחסים
 החפיפה  לנקודות  באשר  בהירות  היעדר  המוליד  דבר, הגדרה  ללא להותירם  פשוט  או אסטרטגי
.זה על זה משפיעים  הם וכיצד לתכנון  אסטרטגיה  בין וההשקה5.2 פרק
הא


 את הרחבנו,  המממנים
 • האסטרטגיות  ליישום  פועלות  ממשלות  שבו האופן  ותיעוד  בירור
.שלהן
 • הגיבוש  תהליכי  את המלוות  הספציפיות  התפוקות  לגבי הנחיות  גיבוש
.אסטרטגיות
 הגענו,  אסטרטגיה  בגיבוש  להתמקד  אמורים  היינו במקור  כי אף
 אסטרטגיות  לגי


ובר  פורסם
2011 קיץ של1 .1 פרק
הקדמה
 ביצועים  מפגינה  ישראל,  ואילך הקודמת  המאה  של השמונים  שנות מאמצע
 עמד2010 עד1985  בשנים  ג“בתמ הגידול.  הכלכלי  בתחום  מרשימים
 בעולם  שנרשמו  האחוזים2.9-ל מעל הרבה,  אחוזים4.4  על בממוצע
 ג“בתמ הגידולOECD-ה ב


סמנכ  פורום  הקמת
 יכולות  ופיתוח;  הממשלה  במשרדי  ותכנון  מדיניות,  לאסטרטגיה
 תרגום  כולל, הממשלה  במשרדי  אסטרטגית  פרספקטיבה  לנקיטת
.אלה של ויישומם  ותוכניות  מדיניות  לעקרונות  אסטרטגיות  של
7 .  כדי, חיצוניים  ומומחים  עניין מבעלי  המורכבת  מ


משימות  אחת
.  הנבחרת  הממשלה  של בכהונתה  הקשורה  ספציפית  אסטרטגיה
1.השגה  ובני ספציפיים  יעדים  באסטרטגיה  לשלב  ניתן
 • אסטרטגית  פרספקטיבה  של תמידית  נקיטה  על גם להקפיד  יש
, טווח ארוכת  אסטרטגיה  של וגיבוש  כלכליים  חברתיים  אתגרים  כלפי
 ביי


ראל  כלכלית
• אסטרטגיה  בגיבוש  התומך  המידע  תיאור
 • של בגיבוש  כיום המיושמים  והבקרה  ההערכה  תהליכי  ניתוח
אסטרטגיות
 • המשמשים  ובקרה  הערכה,  מידע, תהליכים,  במוסדות  פערים  זיהוי
אסטרטגיות  בגיבוש  כיום
• האסטרטגיה  גיבוש בתחום  בינלאומיים  מב


 בנוסף.  טווח ארוך במבט  ישראל
 לגבי לשאלה  התשובות  את מציג זה מסמך.  כזאת  לאסטרטגיה  היסודות
.זאת לעשות  שיאפשרו  המוסדות  של דמותםישראל  במדינת  טווח ארוכת  אקונומית- סוציו אסטרטגיה  פיתוחxii
מספקת  לא רמה7 פער לגבי והמלצות  המבחן  ממקרי  מסקנות6


יות  היחידות  וחיזוק  לים“סמנכ פורום  הקמת6 המלצה
94 ............................................ותכנון  מדיניות,  לאסטרטגיה
95 ........חיצוניים  ומומחים  עניין מבעלי  המורכבת  מועצה  הקמת7 המלצה
98 .................................ומחקר  הערכה,  בבק


חבר, זה אתגר  עם להתמודד
.בישראל  מובילה  ייעוץ חברת
, כיום אסטרטגית  פרספקטיבה  מיישמת  ישראל  ממשלת  כיצד בדקנו
 ביצירת  שכזו פרספקטיבה  ולנהל לפתח  בבואן  אחרות  מדינות  נוהגות  כיצד
 בחנו וכן כלכלי החברתי  במישור  אתגריהן  עם להתמודדות  מדיניות


 בין. בראשו  לעמוד  התמנו  האוצר  משרד  ל“ומנכ לכלכלה  הלאומית  המועצה
 ביכולת  לתמוך  עשוי מוסדי  מבנה איזה לבדוק  ראנד תאגיד  התבקש,  השאר
 הניסיון  של בחשבון  הבאה  תוך, ישראל  של הצרכים  נוכח, המיטבי  באופן  זו
 של האמיתי  הערך  כי למסקנה  הגענו


CORPORATION
Analysis to Support
Louisiana’s Flood Risk and Resilience Program and Application to the National Disaster Resilience Competition
David G. Groves, Kenneth Kuhn, Jordan R. Fischbach, David R. Johnson,
James Syme
Prepared for the State of


rior RAND studies help ing the State of Louisiana
mitigate flood risk including Fischbach et al. (2012) and Groves et al.  (2014).
On January 21, 2016, HUD announced that it is awarding the state of Louisiana $92.3 million
and the city of New Orl


A.1: Costs and Structures Mitigated by Block Group, Low -Budget Levels ...................... 24

Table A.2: Costs and Structures Mitigated by Block Group, Medium-Budget Levels ................ 25

Table A.3: Costs and Structures Mitigated by B


h, and $100 million in Plaquemines Parish. Structures would be elevated to a height of two feet above the local Base Flood Elevation and all areas would be eligible for project work (no filter applied) in this example project. Project work would
be


tal Louisiana Risk Assessment model, are increasingly available and can be used to evaluate risks over a wide range of flood events. Planning organizations can then augment risk data with other metrics, such as income or repetitive loss data to ident


eveloped and evaluated “nonstructural projects” for 56 regions.
Each of these projects specified for each region the extent to which residential structures would need to be elevated, the extent of flood -proofing residential and commercial structure


ges. A  version of the CLARA
model that has been updated to support Louisiana’s 2017 Coastal Master Plan analysis was used in this study (Fischbach et al., 2015).
Figure 2.1 provides a high-level overview of the CLARA model. CLARA takes storm surge


 locations along the coast (called “grid points” in CLARA). It can also aggregate the results to more commonly used geographic areas, such as U.S. Census block groups (Figure 2.2).
Figure 2.2:Census Block Groups for Each Target Area

 5 Formulation


he State.
4 The cost of elevating a structure three to seven
feet is $82.50 per square foot. The cost of elevating a structure seven to ten feet is $86.25 per
square foot. The cost of elevating a structure ten to 14 feet is $103.75 per square foot.


om HUD and FEMA, respectively. Figure 2.4 shows the geographic patterns of current 100-year flood depths (upper) and percentage of LMI properties (lower). Areas with relatively high flood depths are shaded red and areas with relatively low flood dept


et of flo oding depth—they must
be projected onto a common scale in order to combine them. The following equation is used to
scale each component of the metric:6
 Scaled value of a component =
Score at a grid point – Mean score across all grid p


d damage. One approach uses current-
condition flood depths and a constant dollar estimate of damage reduction to estimate benefits. This is consistent with standard benefit-cost practice, using only a current snapshot of risk. However, the 2012 Coas


y
providing a convenient and user-friendly way to review interim results. The figures shown in this report are static reproductions of some of the visualizations. Second, the tool provides others
with easy access to these results: A web link produc


en Meadow structural flood protection system , which
leads to low risk for much of the populated area in this parish under current flood depths , and (2)
high projected flood depths in other areas that rule out elevating structure s. Note that this


gated by U.S. Census block group for the
high-budget proposed project. The shading represents the number of structures from 0 (white) to
400 (dark green). The majority of the elevations are concentrated in two Census block groups in
Plaquemines Pa


nts of structures to be elevated when the project
definition strategy focuses on the LMI metric alone, instead of the combined criterion that factors in LMI, cost-effectiveness, and flood depth. In Terrebonne Parish, defining the project based on LM


ff speaks to the value in the composite criterion
used for the proposed project that focus es on LMI, current flood depths, and cost-effectiveness.
In Terrebonne Parish, all project variants perform well. Terrebonne Parish is exposed to
small and


me data inputs are treated as static although conditions will c ertainly change in the future.
Examples include the use of  historical data on RL properties and LMI populations.
Nevertheless , this analysis  provides a step forward and enables the


ch Foundation, 2013, pp. 109 –126.
National Research Council, Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate, Panel on Strategies and
Methods for Climate-Related Decision Support, Committee on the Human  Dimensions of
Climate Change, Division of Behav


Sponsored by the National Institute of Justice  The Role of Technology
in Improving K–12 School Safety
Heather L. Schwartz, Rajeev Ramchand, Dionne Barnes-Proby, Sean Grant,
Brian A. Jackson, Kristin J. Leuschner, Mauri Matsuda, Jessica SaundersP


, the report presents the results of two rapid reviews of literature on school
safety and school safety technologies, the highest-priority technology needs that school practi -
tioners identified in two day-long workshops and a pre-workshop question


al Media Monitoring, Visitor Entry, and Surveillance at the Glendale School District,
Glendale, California  ..................................................................................... 42
Anonymous Bystander Tip Line in Colorado  .........


B.1. School Safety Technology Flow Diagram ..................................................... 101
 B.2. Number of Original Panel Needs Combined to Produce Final Combined Needs  ...... 106
Tables
 S.1. Twelve Categories of School Safety Technologie


of all forms of school violence. Because of their severity, these occurrences
receive most of the attention from the media and policymakers. It is the more commonplace types of violence, such as physical bullying, assault, threats, and weapon-carryi


fatalities among staff, students, or other individuals on school grounds in the
United States—less than 1 percent of youth homicides that occurred nationally during this
period (Robers et al., 2014). The majority of schools do not experience violen


rcent) than white students (5.8 percent), with black males reporting the highest levels of victimization (10.1 percent),
followed by Hispanic males (9.5 percent), Hispanic females (7.5 percent), black females (6.8
percent), white males (6.2 percent


logy are not. For most technologies, there is limited information about their prevalence. For all tech -
nologies, evidence on effectiveness is severely limited or nonexistent. Many technologies are relatively new and are still being developed (e.g.,


tectors and X-ray  machinesHand-held and walkthrough metal detectors, X-ray machines  to scan book bags. often at entrance to school or as students exit school busesPrevents weapons from  being brought into schoolApproximately 5 out of 100 public sch


eved that metal detectors and X-ray machines increased students’
negative attitudes toward school and made schools seem too fortified and unwelcoming. The cost to adopt a given technology and how its adoption may drain resources for other aspects of


ation on school safety. Panelists saw this
improved access to information and guides as key to preventing, reducing, and responding to
the entire spectrum of school violence. Several other themes emerge from their ratings:
• Direct two-way communi


fety initiatives brings only false security rather than effective solutions. Consequently,
rigorous research designs such as randomized controlled trials are needed to instill trust
in evaluation results about school safety technologies.
• Measure


efore buying technologies,
schools should make sure that the technology can be integrated with their current systems and upgraded in the future. This is particularly important for technologies that generate
data (e.g., tip lines, social media monit


e report itself at the conclu -
sion of the project. We would also like to acknowledge the publishing contributions of
Patricia Bedrosian for editing the report and Mary Wrazen for creating and helping design
the figures .xixAbbreviations
CCSD Clar


lence can also have damaging effects on children’s short- and long-term outcomes (Ttofi, Farrington, and
Lösel , 2012). Beyond the immediate effects of such incidents, threats to students’ safety and
well-being may undermine their ability to learn


owing tasks for this study:
• developed a typology of school safety technologies based on the literature
• summarized the available evidence about technology and the main forms of school
violence
• interviewed experts about their perceptions of the


rs to the absolute and relative size of
the school in terms of enrollment (total students, student to teacher ratio), source of funding (public versus private), and grade level (middle, high). School demographic composition  refers to
the represent


ks, or threats of physical attack. The incidence of any type of violence was 25 events per 1,000 students annually. These rates are likely to
underestimate the true prevalence and incidence of violence.
Eight percent of students reported being in a


t inherently implies that both law enforcement personnel and citizens have the
potential to affect the outcome of the event based upon their responses (FBI, 2013, p. 4).Introduction    5
on school grounds (7 percent); the percentage of teachers  who


they had the greatest interaction with other,
particularly older, students.
7. Rates of violence differ significantly among students. Just as there is variation by
school characteristics, there is variability in who is victimized and who perpetrat


 correlated with perpetration and victimization (Horner, Rew,
and Brown, 2012). Other factors that are less consistently related include academic
involvement and achievement and family and peer factors. Often, these factors attenu -
ate some of the


ved two reviewers), and the review did not involve querying listservs, making contacts
with authors, and going through reference lists of full-text reports to identify more potentially
eligible reports. Because of the short time frame of this revie


school safety technologies currently
employed in the United States. All types of reports (e.g., newspaper articles, magazine entries, reports of government legislation, nonpeer-reviewed reports, scientific journal articles) were
eligible.
Technolo


s (e.g., walkie-talkies, phones, emergency communication systems, radios)Allows students/staff to notify school office and law enforcement about incidents, unauthorized individuals, and dangers/risksSchool communication network that links classrooms,


, although potentially prevalent with smart phones
10. Maps of school terrain and bus routes Geographic Information System (GIS)Helps emergency responders prepare for crisisSoftware used to plot school terrain and transit routes used for school purpo


choolyard supervisors, and bus  drivers with the front office or security staff, as well as with local law enforcement and fire departmentsIntercoms and two-way, hand-held radios are thought to be used extensively
5. School-site alarm and protection


nd barricades are standard, low-tech protection technolo -
gies. However, electromagnetic locking systems, considered for use by some urban schools, can
have prohibitive expenses for many school districts (Gray, 2014).
Evidence on outcomes.  No rig


hool safety. However, there is little
concern about identification technology causing harm or being unacceptable to students, staff,
and communities. School leaders need to consider the physical layout of their schools and the risk of intrusion whe


on materials used include intercoms, walkie-talkies,
emergency communication systems, radios, and phones (McLester, 2011). These devices are
used to establish school communication networks that link classrooms, schoolyard supervisors, and bus drive


 when activated.
Prevalence of use.  This review did not identify any estimates of the prevalence of school-
site alarm system technologies. However, local alarms use similar technology to fire alarms, which are extremely common in U.S. schools—the


 a month, whereas mass email messaging is likely to have minimal costs if existing school facilities are the email recipients.
Technology #7: Metal Detectors and X-Ray Machines
What it is. Metal detectors and X-ray machines are used by school securit


low users to make
anonymous posts. Signs, posters, and messages are typically delivered to students, families, and community members to inform them about the existence and purpose of these technologies.
Phone hotlines or voicemail systems, anonymou


students who have smart phones with built-in track -
ing systems may save on costs. Bus-tracking may lead to more efficient and safer routes, which proponents have argued save schools costs on fuel and insurance.
Technology #10: GIS-Informed Maps of


 pre-dictors of violence); the information is used to detect and predict possible future violent behav -
ior (Chandler, Levitt, and List, 2011).
Prevalence of use.  Use of this type of technology is not very common, as the software
and skills requi


uipment), for most there is limited information about their prevalence. For all technologies, evidence on outcomes is limited or nonexistent. Many technologies are relatively new and are still being
developed (e.g., tracking systems, violence predic


es listed in Table 2.1. A total of 18 participants (82 percent) completed the urban
pre-panel online questionnaire, and 16 (80 percent) completed the suburban/rural pre-panel online questionnaire.
On the questionnaire, participants were asked to rat


searchers, with
an additional researcher present to take notes. The panels were highly structured (details are presented in Appendix B).
Stakeholder Interviews
Over the course of four months (January 2015 to May 2015), we invited 53 representatives


e greater manpower and infrastructure that panelists said was needed for effective video monitoring, which a larger school district could provide. Sub -
urban/rural panelists, meanwhile, rated social media monitoring as very appropriate for both type


riate nor Inappropriate Technologies
GPS tracking of students or buses 3.43 Metal detectors and X-ray machines 3.44
Violence prediction technology 3.21Perceived Appropriateness and Barriers to Adoption of School Safety Technology    23
of classroom d


as very appropriate
for addressing both severe (mean = 4.7) and frequent (mean = 4.7) forms of violence, whereas
suburban/rural panelists rated it as only somewhat appropriate for both forms (severe mean
= 4.3; frequent mean = 4.2). Discussions i


o be able to directly contact emergency responders rather than have to report to central office staff who, in turn, contact emergency responders. Those who disagreed
stressed the possibility of teachers making false emergency calls to 911, potential


 have cell
phones and . . . pictures, photos, video gets out into the public immediately.” Another men -
tioned the need for accurate contact information for parents, because “there are some districts
where many parents don’t have access to compute


hat use Internet-based tips, one panelist talked about the
need to be able to “rapidly track IP addresses to identify the source of tips.” A frequently men -
tioned theme was that tip lines need to be multimodal in the sense that they have the capac


erceived Appropriateness and Barriers to Adoption of School Safety Technology    27
more frequent forms of violence (urban mean = 3.4; suburban/rural mean = 3.4). Although
infrequently mentioned, panelists described GIS-informed maps of school terra


t told us: “[I]t is hard
to track cyberbullying, because much happens outside the school so tools around this would
be useful.”
Panelists also expressed doubt about effective monitoring because of the sheer number
of social media platforms and th


d when mentioned during the expert panel, panelists
raised significant concerns about privacy, lack of legal clarity regarding the technology’s juris -
diction (e.g., whether or not the video footage is protected by the Family Educational Rights
an


d fear. She summarized: “I cringe when it comes down to tech versions of security.” Similarly, a
researcher we interviewed talked about the mixed message safety technology can send: “We
want you to be a part of the community but we don’t trust you.


hnologies can promote
the opposite. During the expert panel, one panelist remarked: “There is a strong psychological
effect in making people [students, parents, teachers] feel safe.” Metal detectors, for example, are a visible way that some school


 half of
the stakeholders we interviewed cited cost issues and specifically how investing in technology reduced other resources that they felt were more important. A researcher we interviewed stated
the following, which is representative of what se


nication technology and school-site alarms, concerns
about the cost of adopting emergency alert systems were raised by 39 percent of suburban/
rural panelists, and 33 percent were concerned about the risk of false identification of
the perpetrator


essment looking at costs and staff capacity in order to implement [tech] efficiently.
Can they afford staff and the upkeep of these techs? That has to be done in a very thoughtful manner at the district level.”
Conclusions
One of our key findings f


opriate for schools and barriers to adopt, in the next chapter we present six case studies that describe how school districts themselves have adopted technol -
ogy in an effort to keep their students safe. 35CHAPTER FOUR
Using Innovative Technology t


e selected seven potential locations, which we selected for geographic diversity and for
use of a diverse set of technologies from the types that the expert panel had described as very 36    The Role of Technology in Improving K–12 School Safety
app


the technology in the wake of the Sandy Hook Ele-
mentary School shooting in December 2012. In addition, the NPD rated Skyview as “the most unsafe school” in Nampa because of the multiple points of entry into the school. Another con -
cern at the sch


e badges, the program has been viewed as a success. According to those we inter -
viewed for this case study, administrators, teachers, parents, and students generally like the system, and some have said that they would not want to be at a school tha


respond to or investigate offenses occurring on district property.
Alert/Alarm System
Three schools in the CCSD—Desert Oasis High School, Jack Lund Schofield Middle School, and Stuckey Elementary School—have implemented a security alarm system known


ow how to use it. Despite these limitations, practitioners recom -
mended this system given its potential to assist in emergency situations.
Video Surveillance
The CCSDPD Security Systems division includes a network of over 12,400 cameras installed


screens in the event of an emergency. Initial costs were quite high and were covered through a $100,000 grant from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, which covered the cost of set -
ting up the secure data servers and providing receivers/conver


 technologies.
In the 2001–2 school year, the district experienced a series of unsubstantiated bomb
threats, many of which were written on walls on school property. Initially, the standard emer -
gency response procedures were to evacuate the buildi


e monitoring doors can notify all relevant per -
sonnel within the school of a door that is open and should not be, and the nearest person can
investigate. The walkie-talkies have an “all school” setting by which anyone carrying them can
broadcast


r the existing panic buttons located in multiple locations in each school building; those alerts might
take 30 to 90 seconds before reaching the Londonderry police dispatch. Representatives from
COPsync911 informed us that the cost differs by schoo


a Crescenta), with nearly
27,000 students across 21 elementary schools, four middle schools, and six high schools. The school district was motivated to adopt school safety technologies by a range of factors, includ -
ing national, high-profile incid


ontact at individual school sites (typically an assistant principal) to find out how the school administrator chose to deal with the particular student. If needed,
the school will ask Geo Listening to gather additional information.
Although initia


students about the use of Geo Listening. Transparency is particularly important because some may perceive Geo Listening as an invasion of privacy, a feeling that might be magnified if districts implement the system without informing the community. Th


 practices and to educate them (through letters, phone calls, text messages) on such
issues as ensuring acceptable IDs so that parents are knowledgeable about how to access the
school. As with Geo Listening, gaining community buy-in is essential.


 a hotline implemented after the Columbine shootings was underused and less than effec -
tive. Safe2Tell’s core competency is giving a bystander a reporting tool, allowing people who know of concerning or dangerous situations to report them; traditio


Information Services security policy, and the Health Insurance
Portability and Accountability Act, and encrypted to ensure anonymity. Attachments such
as photographs, videos, social media posts, and other pieces of evidence can be uploaded by
repo


culture to a positive climate in which students care for and look out for one
another and that trusting relationships between staff and students have been established. By
implementing a consistent marketing strategy across Colorado, Safe2Tell educa


uired to make the program work. These issues can be 48    The Role of Technology in Improving K–12 School Safety
overcome by the use of technology and online tools to provide toolkits for classrooms, webinars
for trainings, and marketing materials a


ans
provide lessons that are widely applicable to the range of small to large school districts.
1 The number of unarmed security guards per school facility depends on a number of factors. School administrators have
some discretion to convert one f


estee wears. Informa -
tion is thus easily scanned and uploaded for jail staff.
Internet Security.  Given that the Miami-Dade Schools police work with minors, secur -
ing police Internet transmissions was of paramount importance. For this reason, the


tty theft Disorderly conduct Burglary Vehicle burglary Arson Aggravated battery Aggravated assault
2013–14
2012–13
Number of incidentsUsing Innovative Technology to Enhance School Safety in Practice    51
information to, say, determine where to en


 wanted to access live video feeds to enable them to respond to calls in a safer and more efficient manner. As a result, the police
department worked for a year and a half to create a system by which all school surveillance
cameras across the distr


onitoring of CompStat data, the police department noted
this difference and, by investigating the cause, determined that discrepancies largely resulted from how schools measure incidents (e.g., a school may include in its SESIR an incident that
res


gram.
Conclusions
In Chapters Two through Four, we presented an overview of technologies that exist for pro -
moting school safety, key stakeholders’ perspectives of these technologies, and case studies
about how schools are using these technologies


of the three sets of concerns (see Tables 3.2 and 3.3 in Chapter Three)
• needs for those technologies that questionnaire results indicated were neither appropriate
nor inappropriate technologies for each of the three sets of concerns (see Tables 3.


we combined the needs are shown in Table 5.1. Details are presented in Appendix B.
Next, the research team used the original 199-item ranking data provided by the pan -
elists to identify the highest-priority technology and related needs out of the r


police officer body cameras with live feed capability
Creation of model policy for body-worn cameras for
both SROs and outside police
Drone surveillance of school grounds or at school  eventsAutomated drone surveillance of school grounds
Drones for


icates both the high salience
of and degree of consensus about the importance of a given technology need across a range
of school types because it means that all four panels of experts independently identified the given technology need through thei


) 1
Early warning student tracking systems 1
Multimodal tip line that centralizes and compiles tips from various sources and in various forms (video, text, images)1
Platform for sharing school safety best practices (regional and national) 1
Quick and


ack of training as a common barrier to the faithful implementation of school safety plans. Given the high rates of turnover
in some categories of school-based staff—especially among school support staff, such as teach -
ers’ aides—the online deliver


Related Needs to Improve School Safety     61
the mapping of school grounds to allow emergency responders to quickly isolate and access
parts of a campus where the emergency occurs. Both tap into the theme of better connecting
schools to emergency


imilar themes of how to obtain economies of scale in tip line monitoring and how to better
pool information to more efficiently weed out false alarms and identify problem instances or
persons who may be on another agency’s radar before a given scho


ral
panels ranked highly: better ways to engage, train, and inform parents in particular and other
community members more generally. Picking up on the often repeated theme that “problems start at home,” panelists looked for engaging new ways to edu


nment 1
Platform for sharing customized school safety best-practices (local) 1
Ability to collect incident details on tip lines 1
Cameras in school hot spots 1
Interactive code-of-conduct technology (software, simulations, video games, virtual realit


esults, respectively.
Technology and Related Needs That Both Urban and Suburban/Rural Panels Ranked Highly
When asked to consider which needs to invest in across the whole spectrum of a school’s needs, experts again ranked two-way communication betw


eeds were also rated as Tier 2 by one panel in prior ranking exercises.
Table 5.7
Tier 2 Technology and Related Needs Identified out of All School Safety Needs
Combined Technology or Related NeedNumber of Panels That Identified
the Improvement Wit


chool
ViolenceTier When Ranked
Across All Identified
Needs
Combined Technology or Related Need UrbanSuburban/
Rural UrbanSuburban/
Rural UrbanSuburban/
Rural
Direct two-way communication between
teachers and law enforcement1 1 1 1
All-in-one appl


bined Technology or Related Need UrbanSuburban/
Rural UrbanSuburban/
Rural UrbanSuburban/
Rural
Virtual counselors for students 1
Virtual training simulations for students
and staff about school safety1
Online platform for communicating with parents


ce be able to contact 911, and (b) two-way communication abilities are critical (rather than, say, only panic buttons) so that
emergency responders can gather information during the emergency about the location,
events, and condition of victims.
•


ategories of school safety technologies, and is there evidence of their effectiveness?
3. What do experts think are the most important improvements that can be made to
technologies to address the most severe and the most frequent forms of school vi


 safety plans and policies must be customized to the individual school, but our
study revealed some commonalities among safety experts about schools. The first is the impor -
tance of the length of emergency response time to the school for the unfor


nate Emergency Plans and Procedures from One Place,
Improve Tip Lines, and Reduce Human Error/Improve Accountability
When asked to rank the most important technology needs to prevent, reduce, and respond
to school violence of various forms, a consi


re for an all-in-one place where staff could go to access school policies, protocols for what to do when behaviors are observed or when events occur, legal forms, engag -
ing online training modules customized to different school staff types, and sug


in their classrooms, and the lack of manpower
to investigate tips, alleged bullying, or other reported threats. Through our discussion with the
experts, it became clear that technologies are often not implemented as intended, and, there-fore, they


 -
ceptions of safety are needed to instill trust in evaluation results about school safety tech -
nologies.
• Given implementation challenges, researchers should include in their research design
measures of proximal outcomes (adherence to protocol


well-being of students
and staff, and physical alterations to the facilities and campus if needed to improve safety.
• Schools must remember that not only can technology fail in certain instances, but, more
importantly, experts stressed repeatedly


ity emergency responders (e.g., police, fire, medical services). A security assessment examines a wide range of factors, including the physical features of the school grounds and
building, preparation for weather-related threats, threats from the st


nd ethically, schools need to
consider whether and how particular technologies could feasibly be adopted and used to suc -
cessfully address the specific issues related to student safety for which solutions are needed.
Understanding how these techn


ugh fatal and serious violence at schools generates the most media attention, such inci -
dents are rare. According to the School Associated Violent Death study, between July 1, 2010, 80    The Role of Technology in Improving K–12 School Safety
and J


 than 20 percent of schools experience episodes of fatal or serious violence, most
schools experience some type of violence during the school year. According to the SSCS, in the
2009–10 school year, 74 percent of public schools recorded at least on


 during the same time frame, 15 percent of students were electronically bul -
lied through email, instant messaging, chat rooms, websites, or texting (Kann et al., 2014). The Table A.1
Characteristics of Active Shooting Incidents in K–12 Schools in t


nomic condi -
tions, drug markets, law enforcement practices, and school policies and environments as well as increases in programs geared toward violence prevention (Brener et al., 1999).
There are a few notable exceptions to the overall decline in


ence rates across middle and high schools, indicates that although a comparable proportion
of middle and high schools experience violence, such events occur more frequently in middle schools.
Enrollment Size
The prevalence of all forms of violence


ver 20 percent of schools located in cities experienced an event involving serious violence, followed by over 15 percent of schools in suburbs and towns and 13 percent of schools in rural
areas. Incidence of violence, as reported to administrators,


es to, the
causal effects of urbanicity on school violence, see Maume, Kim-Godwin, and Clements, 2010; Veliz and Shakib, 2012;
and Klein and Cornell, 2010.An Overview of Violence in U.S. K–12 Schools Today    85
chuk, 2007) and self-reported weapon


The definition we apply in this report refers primarily to school-level norms and
interactions, encompassing a range of positive indicators (e.g., parent and community involve-ment; average levels of students’ self-reported attachment to their schoo


atings of students’ college-going expectations (Maume, Kim-Godwin,and Clements, 2010) and athletic and math participation (Veliz and Shakib, 2012) are associated
with lower rates of school violence.
Familial and Community Factors
Although parental i


eir own reports,
males are also more likely than females to carry weapons to school (8 versus 3 percent) and to
fight at school (10.7 versus 6 percent; Kann et al., 2014).
Age
Students ages 12–14 experience greater rates of violent victimization t


 school property were greater among youth who had experienced any or exclusively same-sex contact. Similarly, a median of
16 percent of gay and lesbian youth, 13 percent of bisexual youth, and 10 percent of youth who were unsure of their sexual ide


ed or injured at school (Zhang and Johnson, 2005).
Mental Health
Mental health symptoms are also positively associated with perpetration of violence at school. Students reporting high levels of stress (Horner, Rew, and Brown, 2012), symptoms of
dep


.90    The Role of Technology in Improving K–12 School Safety
2002). Impulsivity and low self-control were associated with being victimized at schools in two
studies (Augustine et al., 2002; Tillyer, Fisher, and Wilcox, 2011), but another study foun


rying. Other studies have found that weapon victimization (Muula, Rudatsikira, and Siziya, 2008; Watkins, 2008), property victimization (Muula, Rudatsikira,
and Siziya, 2008), violent victimization (Kodjo, Auinger, and Ryan, 2003; Muula, Rudatsikira


 (Burrow and Apel, 2008) or residing in a two-parent household both appear to
be unrelated to victimization (Burrow and Apel, 2008; Peguero and Jiang, 2014; Vogel and Barton, 2013; Watkins, 2008).
Qualitative aspects of family functioning seem to b


 the direct report of their peers themselves, these results should
be interpreted somewhat cautiously.
Peer attachment has been found to reduce the likelihood of victimization (Tillyer, Fisher,
and Wilcox, 2011). In one study, however, positive pe


ith behavioral issues. On the other hand,
teachers assigned to smaller numbers of students were at lower risk (Gerberich et al., 2014).
Conclusion
To summarize, violence in U.S. schools is not uncommon; however, as one of our interviewees
commente


these constraints, we made every attempt to scan and identify literature on studies of school-level violence and individual-level perpetration of
or victimization by violence at schools.
Search Strategy
We developed a systematic search strategy for


 school-level violence or individual- level perpetration or victimization of violent behaviors occurring in school settings (question 2).
Once these studies were categorized, we further extracted from them data along several dimen -
sions and catal


.S. Centers for Disease ControlRepresentative samples of 9th–12th-grade students at national, state, and large urban levels5
National Longitudinal  Study of Adolescent to  Adult HealthStudent-reported weapon-carryingUniversity of North CarolinaNation


ey sources identi -
fied by the project team and client representatives were also examined. No other information sources were searched.
Selection Criteria
To be eligible for this rapid review, retrieved citations must have discussed school safety te


g fights on school playgrounds at nights or on weekends).
A priori examples of ineligible forms of violence include:
• all forms of self-harm, such as suicide, cutting, or eating disorders, even when that self-
harm occurs at school
• verbal abuse th


n real-world applications
• information about the prevalence or use of the technology
• information about the cost associated with using the technology
• information about the acceptability of the technology to various stakeholders (e.g., stu -
dents


er
groups. See Table B.2 for a breakdown of our recruitment efforts.
To protect confidentiality, we do not name the individuals or their organizations, but
they came from county offices of education, associations of school principals, universities


nt analysis. Subthemes were then highlighted to another color for easier text analysis and
validation, and a new bivariate was created for each theme and a “1” was assigned to each quote
to indicate that a specific theme was mentioned within a spec


ve, somewhat ineffective, neither effective nor ineffective, somewhat effective, very effective, and don’t know.104    The Role of Technology in Improving K–12 School Safety
Participants were also asked to describe the most likely harms, if any, asso


-
gies were appropriate for addressing the form of violence being discussed, and then they were asked to describe the most important improvements that could be made to these technologies to make them even more appropriate for addressing that form of


here were four subpanels: two working groups representing urban schools and school districts on Day 1 and
two working groups representing suburban/rural schools and school districts on Day 2. This
resulted in 12 sets of ratings. Across Phases 1 and


ng the panels’ priorities, given that different numbers of needs were combined
during the simplification process (Figure B.2).
Our approach also had to account for the different lists of needs identified by each working group (which varied in numbe


e need received: To have a measure that was
truly independent of the number of original needs that were combined during our sim -
plification process of creating combined needs, we added the normalized scores for each
combined need and divided that


ocalities with media coverage about innovative use of school safety technology
using such keywords as “school safety,” “school violence,” and “technology.” These two meth -
ods yielded a total of 18 candidate locations for our case studies. From thi


cilSean Burke, President, School Safety Advocacy Council
Mo Canady, Executive Director, National Association of School Resource OfficersMo Canady, Executive Director, National Association of School Resource Officers
Jadine Chou, Chief Safety and Secu


e2Tell
Nancy Ritter, Writer/Editor, National Institute
of Justice, Office of Communications
Steve Schuetz, Physical Scientist, Information
Technologies, National Institute of Justice,
Research Division
Emily Tanner-Smith, Research Assistant
Profe


plete List of Panel Rankings of Combined Technology and Related Needs
Combined Technology ImprovementIdentified InTier with Respect to
the Most Severe
Forms of School
ViolenceTier with Respect to
the Most Frequent
Forms of School
ViolenceTier


s on school safety 3 Urban, suburban/
rural1 1 3 3 3 3
Clearinghouse of information about funding available to purchase school safety products1 Urban 3 3 3 3 3 3
Conversion of voice tips into text for easier triage and tracking on tip lines3 Urban, s


 scanning and retrieval of electronic archived information2 Urban, suburban/
rural3 3 3 3 3 3
Easier-to-use ID technology 1 Urban 3 3 3 3 3 3
Easier, faster identification of IP address of social media user 1 Urban 3 3 3 3 3 3
Educational materials (


and retrieval of electronic archived information2 Urban, suburban/
rural3 3 3 3 3 3
Easier-to-use ID technology 1 Urban 3 3 3 3 3 3
Easier, faster identification of IP address of social media user 1 Urban 3 3 3 3 3 3
Educational materials (e.g., TED


t school safety2 Urban, suburban/
rural3 3 2 2 3 3
Public announcement (PA) system available to CCTV staff to intervene immediately1 Suburban/rural 3 3 3 3 3 3
Peer-led tip line for less serious school safety threats 1 Suburban/rural 3 3 3 3 3 3
Plat


gement system 3 Urban, suburban/
rural3 3 3 3 3 3
Technology to monitor and alter students’ classroom assignments to minimize conflicts between students1 Urban 3 3 3 3 3 3
Training for educators about student profiling 1 Urban 3 3 3 3 3 3
Use of data


 Victims  17(2): 233–253.
Bachman, R., A. Randolph, and B. L. Brown, (2011). “Predicting Perceptions of Fear at School and Going to and from School for African American and White Students: The Effects of School Security Measures.” Youth & Society  43


40. DeNisco, Alison, “Enhancing Visitor Management After Sandy Hook” (2013). District Administration
49(5): 16.DeVoe, J. F., L. Bauer, and M. R. Hill (2011). Student Victimization in US Schools: Results from the 2009
School Crime Supplement to th


cators.” Annals of Epidemiology  24(5): 325–332.References    123
Gladden, R. M., A. M. Vivolo-Kantor, M. E. Hamburger, and C. D. Lumpkin (2014). Bullying Surveillance
Among Youths: Uniform Definitions for Public Health and Recommended Data Elements


and Automotive Mechanics Conference, Proceedings . Los Alamitos, Calif.: IEEE Computer
Society: 127–132
“Improving Classroom Attendance” (2014). Security Management  58(8): 75.
Ingersoll, R. M. (2001). “Teacher Turnover and Teacher Shortages: An Org


win, and C. M.  Clements (2010). “Racial Tensions and School Crime.” Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice  26(3): 339–358.
McLester, S. (2011). “Designing Safe Facilities.” District Administration 47(8): 71–78.
Miami-Dade Police Department (undat


eguero, A. A., and X. Jiang (2014). “Social Control Across Immigrant Generations: Adolescent Violence at
School and Examining the Immigrant Paradox.” Journal of Criminal Justice 42(3): 276–287.
Perumean-Chaney, S. E., and L. M. Sutton (2013). “Stude


or-cobb-county-schools
Sprague, J. (2007). Creating Schoolwide Prevention and Intervention Strategies . The Hamilton Fish Institute on
School and Community Violence and Northwest Regional Educational Laboratory.Stroud, S. (2009). “Fight Fire with Fi


ossession.” Justice
Quarterly  18(3): 509–541.
Wilcox, P., D. C. May, and S. D. Roberts (2006). “Student Weapon Possession and the ‘Fear And Victimization Hypothesis’: Unraveling the Temporal Order.” Justice Quarterly  23(4): 502–529.
Wilson, D. B.,


Cost–Benefit Analysis
of Proposed California Oil and Gas Refinery Regulations
Daniel Gonzales, Timothy R. Gulden, Aaron Strong, William HoyleLimited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights
This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protect


d regula -
tion, the regulation could provide safety and health benefits to the public in nearby
communities and might provide other economic benefits. We examined these poten -
tial benefits in this study. This report explains the proposed regulati


 and Tables
Figures
 S.1. Critical Risk Reduction as a Function of Differing Estimates of
Preregulation Expected Annual Loss from Costly Major Refinery  Incidents
 ................................................................................ xvi


y Ordinance Refineries Between 2000 and 2013  .......... 43
 5.4. Industrial Safety Ordinance Refineries After 2013  ................................. 43
 5.5. Non–Industrial Safety Ordinance Refineries After 2013  .......................... 43
 5.6.


in industry costs)
• benefits to industry (costs avoided)
• benefits to society (costs avoided and other improvements and fewer worker deaths).xii    Cost–Benefit Analysis of Proposed California Oil and Gas Refinery Regulations
Once we have estimated


er cost estimates was regard -
ing start-up costs. Most refiners estimated start-up costs for the first one to five years to be on the same order as, or lower than, ongoing costs. One refining company, however,
expressed concern about the costs to c


s slightly higher cost of gasoline places on the economy. On net, we con -
clude, the stimulatory effect of the refiners’ additional spending would slightly exceed the inhibitory effect of higher gas prices.
Benefits to Industry: Safety Improvements


 company reputation damage, overseas production costs for reformulated California gasoline, intermediate feedstock production and transportation costs, or gasoline transportation costs without access to detailed proprietary information that
refiners


ty will be improved, and the number of workers who die will be reduced. In this study, we examined the hypothesis that the implementa -
tion of the proposed regulation will result in fewer refinery-worker deaths. We examine worker deaths in ISO and N


ated with the critical risk-
reduction factor. Table S.2 shows a small subset of possible points from the figure to illustrate how several key factors are related in these uncertainty calculations. Table S.2 shows that, assuming our best estimate of


fety gains—though various differences in the structure
and implementation of the two regulatory regimes make precise quantitative compari -
son difficult.
Under most scenarios examined in this analysis, the regulations appear to be
cost-effective.


is true, the numbers presented here provide a conservative estimate of the benefits. This has the effect of lowering the required break-even point and making
the regulations easier to justify.xxiAcknowledgments
We recognize California governor Edmun


nia Business Coordination for Shell Oil
Products U.S.
• Mary Kay Nye, manager, process safety, Shell Oil Products U.S. Martinez Refin -
ery
• James Jeter, senior manager, environmental, health, and safety, Tesoro Refining
and Marketing
• Sabiha Gok


in A. Serna, fire chief, fire department, City of Torrance
• James Carver, fire marshal, El Segundo Fire Department
• Colby La Place, senior hazardous material specialist, Solano County Department of Resource Management.
Finally, we thank our peer re


s on the road today in California use gasoline or diesel fuel.
California motor vehicles and commercial aircraft consumed 14.5  billion gal -
lons of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in 2012. Gasoline consumption fell about 14 per -
cent from 2006 to 2


d will be charged with enforc -
ing the new proposed PSM standard for refineries, § 5189.1.
CalEPA oversees the implementation of the CalARP program. The California
Governor’s Office of Emergency Services is the lead agency for the program and track


s.
The Phillips 66 Santa Maria Refinery is considered a part of Phillips 66’s San
Francisco Refinery, which is in Northern California (it is connected to it by pipeline). The capacity figure shown in Table 1.1 for Phillips 66’s San Francisco Refiner


ery Tesoro Petroleum Martinez 168,000
Los Angeles Refinery Tesoro Petroleum Carson 377,000
Valero Wilmington RefineryValero Marketing and
SupplyWilmington 80,000
Benicia Refinery Valero Marketing and
SupplyBenicia 165,000
Total capacity 2,047,000
S


 production. The first two items are costs that are avoided under the
proposed regulation. The last item is an economic benefit of the proposed regulation:
increased refinery output and sales.
Additional qualitative benefits to society could result


 be implemented and how much compliance might cost. We
discussed the few outlying estimates with the refiners and either revised them upon
further clarification of the questions or retained them as legitimately different esti -
mates. In general, h


agement plan (RMP) that includes a description of the worst-case refinery-incident
scenarios based on the types and amounts of hazardous chemicals present at the facil -
ity. We reviewed California refinery RMPs and the worst-case scenarios for most


the past several decades. The chapter also
describes a California gas price model that can be used to assess the impact that MRIs
can have on California gas prices. Chapter Seven includes the macroeconomic impact
analysis for the proposed regulati


focuses on minimizing risks to
employees, whereas the CalARP regulation focuses on protecting the safety and health
of the community, as well as the environment.
Actions Already Taken on Refinery Safety
After the Chevron Richmond fire, the Californ


ntly Safer Measures
HCA is
[a] procedure that applies the Hierarchy of Hazard Controls for the purpose of
selecting recommendations that eliminate or minimize a hazard, or that reduce the risk presented by a hazard. (Cal/OSHA, 2015, p. 4)
Inherent s


ng effective process safety leadership at all levels of the organization. (Cal/OSHA, 2015, p. 25)
Damage Mechanism Reviews
The employer shall complete a Damage Mechanism Review (DMR) within five (5) years of the effective date of this Section for eac


ng additional or alternative safeguards that will reduce the risk of a
major incident. The team shall select and recommend the most protective safe -
guards, unless the team can demonstrate in writing that it is not feasible to do so. Where the team


these RAGAGEP requirements:
Inspections and tests shall be performed on process equipment, using procedures
that meet or exceed RAGAGEP. (Cal/OSHA, 2015, p. 16)
The frequency of inspections and tests shall be consistent with the applicable man -
ufa


 first- and second-order inherent-safety measures, as well as passive, active, and
procedural safeguards. It should eliminate hazards to the greatest extent feasible using first-order inherent-safety measures.
Safeguard Protection Analysis, Part of


and Information
Each refiner should provide all documents and information developed or collected pur -
suant to the PSM regulation to Cal/OSHA upon request.
Implementation
Each refiner should establish a corrective action program to prioritize the re