: Murder Victims, by
Weapon, 2015–2019,” webpage, Crime in the United States 2019, 2020b. As of August 31, 2022:
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/tables/
expanded-homicide-data-table-8.xls
———, “Expanded Homicide


 of Human Resources , Vol. 52, No. 3, 2017, pp. 621–653.
Mercy, James A., Robin Ikeda, and Kenneth E. Powell, “Firearm-Related Injury Surveillance:
An Overview of Progress and the Challenges Ahead,” American Journal of Preventive Medicine ,
Vol. 15


ica, Calif.: RAND
Corporation, RR-2685-RC, 2018. As of October 1, 2019:
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2685.html
Schell, Terry L., Rosanna Smart, and Andrew R. Morral, Suggestions for Estimating the Effects
of State Gun Policies: Com


ystem
NIS Nationwide Inpatient Sample
NRC National Research Council
NVDRS National Violent Death Reporting System
SHR Supplementary Homicide Report411APPENDIX A
Changes from the Second Edition of This
Report
In addition to updating our 2020 review t


udy (Crifasi et al., 2018b). We have
thus updated the results from this study, as well as the associated estimates in the forest
plots, using the revised numbers provided in the erratum. These changes affected the specific
study estimates for viol


f-injuries (including suicide attempts and self-injuries that were not the result
of suicide attempts) among young people
 –revised: moderate evidence that child-access prevention laws reduce total suicides
among young people; supportive evidence t


 surrender
laws, in combination with prohibitions related to violent offenses, reduce total inti -
mate partner homicides; and limited evidence that surrender laws, in combination
with prohibitions related to violent offenses, reduce firearm-relate


firearm suicides among
people aged 20 or younger
Possessing: Inconclusive
evidence for total and firearm
suicides8 Purchasing: Inconclusive
evidence for total suicides;
moderate evidence decreasing
firearm suicides among people
under age 25
P


ve
evidence for total and firearm
suicides
Shall issue: Inconclusive
evidence for total and firearm
suicides
Gun-free zones 0 No studies 0 No studies
Laws allowing
armed staff in K–12
schools0 No studies 0 No studiesTable A.1—ContinuedChanges


timate partner
homicides; limited evidence that
surrender laws, in combination
with prohibitions related to violent
offenses, reduce firearm-related
intimate partner homicidesThe Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence o


icides, robberies, and
rapes8 Supportive evidence for
decreasing assaults (all ages) and
firearm homicides among young
people; inconclusive evidence for
violent crime, firearm homicides,
robberies, and rapes
Concealed-carry
laws42 Shall issue:


ontinued
TABLE A.4
Changes to the Number of Studies and Conclusions, Mass Shootings
PolicyOriginal Review Updated 2022 Review
No. of
Studies ConclusionNo. of
Studies Conclusion
Minimum age
requirements1 Purchasing: Inconclusive 1 Purchasing: Incon


ts0 No studies 0 No studies
Bans on the sale of assault
weapons and high-capacity
magazines0 No studies 0 No studies
Bans on low-quality
handguns0 No studies 0 No studies
Stand-your-ground laws 2 Inconclusive 3 Inconclusive
Child-access prevention


onclusive
for firearm purchases
Gun-free zones 0 No studies 0 No studies
Laws allowing armed
staff in K–12 schools0 No studies 0 No studiesTable A.6—ContinuedThe Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of U.S


CORPORATIONBuilding a High-Quality
Correctional Workforce
Identifying Challenges and Needs
Joe Russo, Dulani Woods, George B. Drake, Brian A. Jackson
On behalf of the National Institute of Justice (NIJ), the
RAND Corporation manages the Priority C


required to ensure that training
curricula are adequate, consistent, relevant, realistic, and delivered in an effective manner.
•
 Th
ere is a need for standards to control excessive
workloads, which can lead to both staff turnover and inadequate m


 who account for 34
 p
ercent of the workforce and
change jobs at a rate more than three times that of nonmillen-nials (Adkins, 2016). Turnover is expensive, and it is estimated that millennial turnover alone costs the U.S. economy more than $30
 b


to
attract a sufficient pool of quality candidates, the realities of corrections work (e.g., work hours, environment, com-pensation), and the strategies required to find candidates who meet the existing and future needs of the organization2Panel Mem


 term used in our work for a specific requirement, tied
to either solving a problem or taking advantage of an opportu-nity for better performance in the justice system, which would help the U.S. corrections sector to better address its workforce iss


sed on its expected benefit (how important they thought it was for the need to be met) and two measures of the probability of success of actually meeting the need (tech-nical and operational feasibility).
During the second round of the process, to h


eds. This consolidation resulted in 64 final needs. (See Figure
 2 f
or a
breakdown of these needs by theme and Table  1 f
or the top-tier
needs across all themes.)
We acknowledge that the needs identified and the priorities
assigned to them are—


he most important work-
force issue in the pre-workshop questionnaire. Not surprisingly, this topic generated the most discussion during the workshop,
2 Vacancy rates are typically calculated based on the number of
unfilled positions derived throug


for staffing ratios and examine such strategies as capped caseloads to allow agencies to meet these standards.
Funding levels dedicated to educating and training the correctional workforce lag behind those for other comparable fields, most notably la


gencies have adopted a “no news is good news” stance with respect to the media. Furthermore, there has been very little effort to share (nonsensitive) information with the public about policy; the challenges faced; and, most impor-tantly, how the sec


f the sector. The panelists reported that the perpetuation of these negative stereotypes undermines the sector and its ability to recruit new talent. They therefore identified a need for the development of best practices for such stakeholders as the


this can be waived with work experience or military service (“Cor-rectional Officer Education and Training,” 2013). Interestingly, some states have modified educational requirements based, in part, on the labor market. For example, in 1987, the Color


ze evidence-based programming and recognize and leverage the potential of corrections officers as key components of the behavioral change process could be more attractive to a wider group of candidates, allowing agen-cies to enforce competency standa


ons officer’s family for food stamps (Mitch-ell, 2014). Similarly, new parole officers in New Jersey receive $57,000 annually, whereas their counterparts in Louisiana earn just over $30,000 (New Jersey Civil Service Commission, 2016; Rico, 2017). Com


ition, agency, and geographic area and proposed the establishment of a federal minimum wage for correctional occupations that organizations can exceed, as appropriate.
Retirement benefits are another important aspect of
compensation. Historically,


compensation. The
High school students with
college aspirations (and considering eventual repayment of student loans) could be dissuaded from careers in corrections. 11panelists reported believing that creative incentives—such as
free or subsidize


ining agreements ensure that existing staff have priority over new hires with respect to desired posts and schedules. The panelists recognized the importance of rewarding staff for their service, but they also acknowledged that the status quo present


he costs, benefits, and efficacy of providing such incentives as transportation and housing assistance.
The entertainment industry shapes public perception of corrections through fictional or “reality TV” productions, but the image portrayed is often


the panelists suggested, the corrections sector is not capitalizing on these innovations. Panelists recom-mended an assessment of the costs and benefits of migrating jurisdiction-based hiring platforms to commercial platforms that allow organizations


e of
paraprofessional or part-time staff to perform lower-level work functions.Examine the feasibility and benefits of developing paraprofessional positions and expanding part-time opportunities.
Work schedules for corrections staff are typically in


still longer than for other occupations. Some of the challenges identified are information technology–related because many agencies struggle with outdated systems. Panelists noted the need to examine the costs and benefits of upgrading these systems


ality and amount of training really required to prepare new staff to perform well. The panelists noted that all agencies continuously seek additional funding to support their operations; however, these efforts might be more success-ful if there were


. This is perhaps not surprising, given that each state generally sets its own standards and each agency must operate within its unique resource constraints. The problem, according to the panelists, is that many new hires coming into the sector are i


w staff is a signifi-
cant expense. For example, the Ohio Department of Reha-bilitation and Corrections has estimated that the cost to train a parole officer is $16,000 (Stinchcomb, McCampbell, and Layman, 2006). Panelists discussed ways to mitigate


s can occur because of lack of trust in staff to use judg-ment to make appropriate decisions. The result is that most training tends to be framed in absolutes while being effective in the field requires navigating numerous shades of gray. Staff must


esources are often too costly for smaller agencies. Encourage government and industry organizations to invest in training platforms and develop content that agencies can access at little or no cost.
Funding limitations can result in a training pipeli


paration for these challenges and called on agencies to examine and improve their organizational cultures while providing better training and support to these individu-als. Panelists identified a particular organizational dynamic that can hamper the


ed individuals to the agency, and many of these 19strategies have a role in preventing turnover, but maintaining
a high-quality workforce requires long-term commitment to organizational issues that affect job satisfaction and improve retention (Stin


ly underresourced agen-cies inevitably burden their staff through exce ssive workloads.
This condition can result in role overload, which occurs when staff are overwhelmed by the demands of the job. For commu-nity supervision staff, this typically t


decisionmaking increased the stress levels of jail staff. Conversely, employee participation in decisionmaking was linked to lower levels of work stress (Slate, Vogel, and Johnson, 2001). The panelists called for the development of best practices for


ction with supervisors (Stohr, Self, and Lovrich, 1992) with negative attitudes and turnover intention. Furthermore, corrections officers who do not feel supported by their supervisors might be more likely to have attitudes that are conducive to inst


 a variety of negative outcomes and can hinder an organization’s ability to retain staff. Assess and validate existing standards for staffing ratios, and examine such strategies as capped caseloads to allow agencies to meet these standards.
2 Increas


inue to perform the requisite duties. This issue will become increasingly salient as the general population ages and, as a result, works longer. Indeed, BLS reports that the labor force participation rate for the 65-and-older age group is projected t


ould create tension in the workplace among those who are not selected. To combat this, staff must perceive the process to be fair. Panelists suggested that agencies clearly specify the training, experience, education requirements, and competencies de


ne such approach, promoted by the panelists, is the establishment of a national correctional academy that would provide high-quality, standardized management-level training to staff from agencies across the country. The general concept was first intr


ced. These factors can deter staff from seeking advancement and, in some cases, have prompted senior staff to request voluntary demotions to improve their compensation and benefit packages (Lord, 2012).
These particular issues are not as prevalent i


elop a national correctional academy for management-level training.
Correctional agencies are often passive or reactive with respect to preparing staff for promotion and leadership opportunities, often waiting until reassignment is urgently needed.As


ly supports and rewards positive behavior but also encourages the reporting of misconduct when it occurs is likely to have fewer and less significant problems than an agency without this type of culture. Staff must be encouraged to hold each other ac


t, if only after the fact. They identified the need to develop best practices for such processes as exit interviews with staff and offenders because, in light of their pending separation, they might be more likely to report mis-conduct they have witn


 to locate and perform comparative analyses on because of the lack of standard definitions of terms.Create processes for annual reports that reflect the state of the entire correctional workforce.
Insufficient data exist on the reasons that correctio


professionalism, according to the panelists. This condition is most evident in corrections officers. The panelists called for the reevaluation of existing or the creation of new competency standards for various correctional positions. These competen


shers to review and revise these documents in order to maintain relevance.
Final Thought
The mission of the corrections sector is, to be certain, challeng-ing and complex under the best of conditions. Human capital is critical to this mission. That t


associated need using a 1-to-9 scale for the following dimensions: (1)
 i
mportance, (2)  t
echnical
feasibility, and (3)  o
perational feasibility. For the importance
dimension, participants were instructed that 1 was a “low” score and 9 was a “hi


within-cluster variance when determining the breaks between tiers. The choice of three tiers is arbitrary but was made in part to remain consis -
tent across the set of technology workshops conducted for NIJ as a part of the PCJNI effort. Also, the c


utional Corrections: Recruitment and Retention Evaluation (Update) ,
Greenville, N.C.: East Carolina University, February 10, 2017.
Brainard, Keith, and Alex Brown, Spotlight on Significant Reforms
to State Retirement Systems , Lexington, Ky.: Nati


 2, No. 4, 1985, pp.
 5
05–533.
Dews, Fred, “11 Facts About the Millennial Generation,” Brookings Institution blog, June 2, 2014. As of June 22, 2018: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brookings-now/2014/06/02/
11-facts-about-the-millennial-generation


 of June 26, 2018: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR820.html
Jacobs, James B., and Kerry T. Cooperman, “A Proposed National
Corrections College,” New York University Public Law and Legal Theory Working Papers,  2012. As of June 23, 2018:


ly , Vol. 5, No. 2, Spring 2001.
Massachusetts Public Employee Retirement Administration Commission, “Mandatory Retirement,” webpage, 2017. As of December 6, 2017: http://www.mass.gov/perac/forms-pubs/retirement-guides/
prior-employee-7.html
Matz,


General Social Survey,” Chicago, Ill.: National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago, October 2014.
Snell, Ronald K., Changes in Age and Service Requirements for Normal
Retirement in State Retirement Plans, 2009–2011 , Washington, D.


Eric G. Lambert, “Rates and Patterns of Law Enforcement Turnover: A Research Note,” Criminal Justice Policy Review , Vol. 26, No. 4, June 1, 2015, pp.
 3
45–370.
Worley, Robert Michael, and Vidisha Barua Worley, “Games Guards Play: A Self-Report Stud


 Institute’s Farming Systems Trial. He began his career as a Coast Guard officer on afloat and ashore assignments in Miami, Florida; New London, Connecticut; and Baltimore, Maryland.
George Drake  is an independent consultant and subcontractor to the


ation, visit
www.rand.org/t/RR2386.
The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help
make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is non


Building Resilience in an
Urban Coastal Environment
Integrated, Science-Based Planning in
Jamaica Bay, New York
Jordan R. Fischbach, Debra Knopman, Heather Smith, Philip Orton,
Eric Sanderson, Kim Fisher, Nerissa Moray, Adam Friedberg, Adam Parri


ort was also intended to complement the ongoing East Rockaway Inlet to Rockaway Inlet and Jamaica Bay Reformulation Study (Reformulation Study) of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), authorized in the 2013 Sandy Supple-mental Appropriations bil


.............................. 38
5
.5. Map o
f Land Converting to Open  Wa
ter in  Fu
ture Scenarios  .......................................... 39
5
.6. Map o
f Increase in Monthly Tidal Flood Depths by Scenario,
Developed Areas  ................


Bay in the pres  en
t, considered to be 2016 when the modeling work commenced, and 25 and
50 years in the  fu
ture, corresponding to the years 2041 and 2066.
As part of the stakeholder engagement pro  ce
ss, the research team employed an approach


asters) can also be damaging, with similar but milder hazards coinciding with multiple high-
 ti
de occur -
rences. Over the past  ce
ntury, sea levels around New York City, and specifically in Jamaica Bay,
have risen by more than a foot, and the Ne


ients, oxygen, pathogens, CSOs, and the  wa
ter quality dynamics of the Bay, as affected
by both rainfall and wastewater flows from the surrounding watershed as well as Bay hydro -
dynamics.
Not all  th
ese pro  ce
sses could be captured in this fir


lity
Modeling
[ECOM/JEM]
DO, Chlorophyll,
Fecal coliform
[JEM]Residence Time
[sECOM 3-D]
Water quality
metrics3-D
Hydrodynamics &
Circulation
[sECOM 3-D]Summary    xv
sen ta tions of the full range of relevant pro  ce sses within Jamaica Bay, especia


re frequent inundation. The High scenario remains an extreme, low probability projection at this time, but
 th
ese probabilities should be expected to change as the science on global ice
sheet dynamics and sea level change continues to evolve.
Resu


rea increases except in Year 50 High sce -
nario. The percentage change in asset exposure  un der Concept 2 is similar in magnitude to
Concept 1 (including the barrier across the inlet), suggesting that nature-  ba sed inlet narrowing
could have co


e by the existence of the Institute,
without which a study of this type would have been even more difficult. Indeed, the Bay’s
“ hu
man” ecosystem of communities, jurisdictions, and governance arrangements is as complex
as its “natu  ra
l” ecosyst


members of the
Institute’s Public Agency Committee and Stakeholder Advisory Committee (PAC and SAC, respectively), as well as other meeting and workshop participants who contributed their time, expertise, and unique perspectives on Jamaica Bay’s
 f


, 2011; Sanderson, 2016). Jamaica Bay also includes abundant natu
 ra
l resources and recreational opportunities for residents and
visitors (City of New York, Office of Long-  Te
rm Planning and Sustainability [OLTPS], and
Special Initiative for Re


among other  fac
tors.
No less impor  ta
nt are (1) estimating the socioeconomic impacts from  fu
ture coastal flood -
ing (regular tidal inundation and extreme flooding), (2) quantifying community impacts from other ongoing changes to natu
 ra
l sys


d to compare
proj ec
ts, highlight high-  per
forming or more robust approaches in the face of  fu
ture uncertainty,
and identify key trade-  off
s still to be resolved. The modeling approach is patterned on the State
of Louisiana’s rigorous model


discussions with individual members
of the committees.
 The
se meetings led to the development of a working list of proj  ec
t concepts that formed
the basis for USACE’s initial scoping of alternatives. For purposes of this proj  ec
t, the exercise


65, with
outcomes assessed at 25-  ye
ar (2040) and 50-  ye
ar (2065) intervals. In addition,  bec
ause of the
expected influence of climate change on the Bay, a long-  te
rm assessment of vulnerability coin -
ciding with the end of the  ce
ntury (


nd planning pro  ce
sses in vari  ou
s stages of completion. Chapter Three describes a pro  ce
ss of
“decision framing” that the proj  ec
t team used with stakeholders in the region. The pro  ce
ss
included the articulation of primary planning goal


 populations
tend to have higher  ho
use ho
ld incomes and educational levels, enjoy higher levels of homeown -
ership, and are more likely to be Caucasian. In contrast, neighborhoods such as Far Rockaway and Canarsie tend
 to
ward higher populatio


n the extensive collaboration with New York City and State agencies and local community groups and nongovernmental organ
 iza
tions (NGOs)
to restore Jamaica Bay’s disappearing marsh islands. The agency has also been a leader in eco -
systems restor


leading state regulator of Jamaica Bay lands and  wa ters. It monitors the
impacts of the wastewater treatment plants at the Bay and regulates all activities in mapped fresh and tidal wetlands and adjacent areas. It acts as nonfederal sponsor for pr


basins and the bay side of the Rockaway Pen -
insula. The agency pursues and manages environmental restoration proj  ec
ts, having just com -
pleted major restorations at White Island, Paerdergat Basin, and elsewhere.
The NYC Department of Transporta


 comparatively cost prohibitive, the Storm Surge Barrier plan is instead recommended as the Tentatively Selected Plan. This plan proposes a hurricane barrier across Rockaway Inlet with two pos
 si bl
e locations: an eastern alignment that would be lo


s and Baywide design concepts of interest (see Chapter Six).
XLRM Pro  c
ess
To or  ga ni
ze results of multiple discussions with PAC and SAC members, we used the “XLRM”
framework (Lempert, Popper, and Bankes, 2003). In this approach, “X” stands for


an waves wash away the barrier beaches and flood the oceanfront communities. Storm surge rushes into the Bay and
 ca
uses
flooding on the interior shorelines, with the Bay’s northern tributaries acting as conduits deliv -
ering the surge  wa
ters d


mate) (Horton et al., 2015). Low-
 ly
ing communities in Jamaica Bay  wi
ll be hit with more
disruptive tidal flooding, with analy  si
s showing that continued SLR  wi
ll  tr
iple the frequency
of such events in Jamaica Bay by 2030, and increase th


ischarge of over 50,000 pounds of nitrogen. But innovative nitrogen reduction pro
 ce
sses and supplemental carbon systems are presently in
vari ou
s stages of design, construction, and operation at all four of the Bay’s plants.
The Bay also  fac
es


h decline in the 1990s led to the first restoration of an interior island, Big Egg, in 2003, followed by fur -
ther joint city-
 st
ate- fe
deral restoration proj  ec
ts. As of 2017, New York City and USACE have
spent over $130 million in marsh isla


, we turn to a scenario approach to explore the ways in which the Jamaica Bay system as modeled may respond spe-cifically to uncertainties associated with climate change:
 fu
ture SLR, changing rainfall pat -
terns, and temperature increases.  The
s


risk in and around
the Bay.
Understanding of models and data was further refined in an integrated modeling work -
shop conducted in December 2014. This workshop included experts such as agency personnel, Institute researchers, and contractors workin


lls and other hard infrastructure, channel narrowing, island restoration, and other natu
 ra
l or nature-  ba
sed
features intended to restore or enhance the natu  ra
l landscape. The integrated model provides
a means of approximating the effects t


is challenge. We term this integrated suite of models the “Jamaica Bay Integrated Model.” An overview is provided in this chapter, while Appendix B provides further technical details on model se
 le
ction and calibration.
Framework for Model Integrat


s exposed to tidal flooding with SLR. The exposure assessment approach is discussed in Chapter Five.RAND RR2193-S.1Sewer system
linkages, land use,
precipitation,
tides
Watershed /
Sewershed
[Infoworks]Existing
moduleInputs/
Outputs
Natural
Ecosystem


r dry land, marsh islands, and shallow
 wa
ters, and the Flood data cover deeper  wa
ters such
as the navigation channels.
 –To
pography of surrounding areas is based on 2010 New York City LiDAR data.
• The D
EM was projected onto the finer-  sc
al


t land surface roughness2 values to
match the desired configuration. We refer to this initial configuration as Year 0, corresponding
to 2016.  The
se input values  we
re then used in sECOM 2-  D wi
th present-  da
y values of SLR for
each grid cel


ing area of wetlands and the fact that tides propagate through deep shipping channels that circle and circumvent the shallows and wetlands in the center of the Bay (Orton et al., 2015).
2 Land surface roughness is an impor  ta nt pa  ra m e te r for


.g., Marsooli et al., 2016).
Output of Simulations
Tidal  water levels within the Bay are determined from a sECOM 2-  D ti de simulation of 35 days
starting August 1, 2015. Standard tide datums ranging from mean lower-  lo
w  wa
ter (MLLW)
to mean


atum computed for two tide
gauge sites (Jamaica Bay Inwood and Rockaway Inlet). Figure 4.3 shows that excellent agree-
ment was found between observed and modeled data at each of the two sites. Utilizing  th
ese
modeled  wa
ter levels, VMM’s ecosys


m between salt marshes and uplands and is dominated by shrubs like groundsel-

tree
 (Baccharis halimifolia ) and saltmarsh-  el
der ( Iva frutescens ) and a set of salt-
tolerant herbs.
Upland Elevations higher than AHAT. Upland areas include a var


   Building Resilience in an Urban Coastal Environment
short-  term modeling of the sedimentary system response to Hurricane Sandy and long-  te rm
(multiannual) simulations (Wang et al., 2017; Hu et al., 2018). Among other results, the research
re


 FIVE
Understanding Vulnerabilities in a FWOA
 After completing integrated model development, the next step in this analy  si s was to estimate
 fu
ture ecosystem,  wa
ter quality, and tidal flood outcomes for Jamaica Bay  un
der plausible
 fu
ture


ce a high rate of land compaction or subsidence over the time period of this analy
 si
s, especially when compared with rates in other coastal estuaries, so for this analy  si
s we
focus on localized eustatic SLR driven by a changing climate (Wang e


d global carbon emission scenarios
 we
re selected to represent Mid and High climate change, respectively, though only the
fiftieth percentile value was ultimately utilized in the  wa
ter quality analy  si
s owing to fund -
ing limits.
By contrast,


ansition zone between salt marsh and upland areas. The first column of Figure 5.3 shows a bar plot summary of ecosystem acreage
 un
der current (Year 0) conditions.
 Future Projections
Projecting forward, Figure 5.3 also shows ecosystem changes in a


al Environment
part,  these losses occur  ei ther at the perimeter of the Bay itself (where not other  wi se hardened)
or on the outer perimeter of the interior islands. Again, substantial land loss is projected by
Year 50 in the High scenario, wit


  un
der three feet of SLR over
50 years, leads to per  si
s te
nt monthly flooding across all of Broad Channel, Howard Beach, and
large segments of the Rockaway Peninsula. Monthly tidal flood depths in Broad Channel and Howard Beach are three feet


 considered are summarized in Figure 5.7, with colors representing the building category. Figure 5.7 shows that a small number of structures (largely residences in Broad Channel) are exposed to per
 si
s te
nt tidal flooding  un
der current condition


.8 and 5.9 show that a range of building types on the Rockaway Peninsula, includ -
ing both single-  fa
mily and multifamily units or larger apartment buildings, could experience
per si
s te
nt tidal flooding  un
der the High scenario. Exposure in a


g Resilience in an Urban Coastal Environment
longer. In the FWOA climate projection (Year 50), however, conditions decline: the area of
low DO in the eastern Bay increases, along with the percentage of time spent below threshold, and nearly all trib


aywide concepts in place.
Area-  da
y results for bottom-  la
yer DO are shown in Figure 5.12. Once again, present-  da
y
results are shown in the left pane, while the right pane represents the Mid climate scenario projection for Year 50. Each colum


ight be threshold effects between
1.5 and 3.0 feet that would lead to rapid ecosystem losses and much more frequent inundation.
It is also worth noting that the High scenario in 2041 is actually the Mid scenario in 2066.
Similarly, the High scenari


he Institute’s PAC and SAC,
r
espectively. The purpose of each workshop was to elicit policy levers of interest that could help
reduce tidal flood risk in low-  ly
ing areas, restore Bay ecosystems, or improve  wa
ter quality as
part of an integra


Sensitivity Testing
 After the workshops  we re completed, the modeling team conducted a series of model-  ba sed
“sensitivity tests” to systematically evaluate the effects of each lever on habitat area, tidal flood extent, and
 wa
ter residence ti


ludes wetlands restoration in lever No 4 design; cut across field; out of scope—model constraint
4 Tunnels and/or overwash cuts in
Edgemere/Far RockawaySCR Out of scope—model constraint
5 Idlewild/Inwood restoration and flow
improvementHRECRP/Stake


ted specific details on the frequency or flood elevation threshold for closure for the surge barrier plan. USACE (2016b) states that an Operation Plan would come
 lat
er in the planning pro  ces
s.
The most current footprints for restoration sites


 Other distinct proposed projects
considered in Concept 1 are denoted with their own unique color .
RAND RR2193-6.2Figure 6.2
Map of Concept 1 Levers54    Building Resilience in an Urban Coastal Environment
first row repeats the Year 50 FWOA results


Concept 2: Narrowing and
wetlandsMid HighClimate scenario
RAND RR2193-6.4Ecosystem or NLCD class
Deep lagoon waters Marine intertidal mudﬂat
Salt marshSalt scrubUpland Shallow lagoon waters
Figure 6.4
Jamaica Bay Habitat Areas in Year 50 with Concept


l of the salt marsh habitat built initially is lost or converts to mudflats by Year 50.
Figure 6.6 maps the net change in land area by Year 50 compared with current conditions,
taking into account both the climate scenario (columns) and concept (row


s the acres inundated for a given developed land classification, while the percent -
age values indicate the change in area inundated when compared with a FWOA.
Results show that the two concepts are successful in reducing
 fu
ture flooding relative


nefits across a range of SLR
projections, though the marginal benefit declines with assumptions of higher SLR.
RAND RR2193-6.7
ConceptClimate scenario
Mid
Change in Depth (MMHW; feet)Concept 1: Barrier
and restorationConcept 2: Narrowing
and wetla


f Flood Depth and Asset Exposure Changes with Concept 1 in Year 50, High Climate Scenario62    Building Resilience in an Urban Coastal Environment
between Broad Channel and East High Island shows additional improvement, with time above
the threshold


 Bottom-  La
yer Time Above DO Threshold with Concept 1 (top) and Concept 2
(bottom)64    Building Resilience in an Urban Coastal Environment
chapter. At pres  en t, the simulation results suggest that 4.1   per cent of all bottom-  la yer area-
d


pacts on month-  to - mo nth tidal flooding as SLR progresses. Concept 2 also yields better per -
for mance than Concept 1 in terms of DO, though the magnitude is similar on average and
may be within the margin of modeling error.
That said, the rela


 th
ese meth -
ods in the  fu
ture. We caution that  th
ese results, as with all modeling-  ba
sed approaches, are
limited by the many imperfections of the models themselves, an inevitability when attempting to simulate highly complex and coupled ph


osystems. Results
indicate that climate change  wi
ll have a significant impact on natu  ra
l and  hu
man systems in
and around Jamaica Bay in  fu
ture de  ca
des. All key per  fo
r ma
nce metrics show declining out -
comes with plausible  fu
ture


1 in terms of DO, though the magni -
tude is similar on average and may be within the margin of modeling error.
This initial analy  si
s does not include cost estimates of each concept, nor does it address
per fo
r ma
nce with re  spe
ct to storm su


be expected in a  fu
ture of rising sea levels and other effects from a changing climate.
Plausible but uncertain climate change explored in this analy  si
s represents an increasingly chal -
lenging baseline against which  fu
ture investments shoul


ng supplemented
the diet of the area’s residents, though it was not yet a prime industry at the Bay. In the year 1800, the area was still largely agricultural and supported a modest population of approximately 1,000 inhabitants. The Bay’s
 wa
ters


rn and northwest perimeters of the Bay as part of this effort,
and the fill was used to shape present-  da
y Floyd Bennett Field, Mill Basin, and Canarsie Pol,
an island south of Carnarsie, Brooklyn. Over time, however, the cost and effort of maint


ty o
pened
in 1931 and played host to many famous early transatlantic and international air flights. While the airport remained in commercial use for only a few years, it was subsequently developed into an active naval base and served U.S. operation


preserves. And since the early 2000s, federal, state, city, and NGO groups have been working together to restore both perimeter wetlands and the Bay’s central marsh islands, which are in steep decline.
In recent years, agencies and the community have


protection and resiliency proj
 ec
ts in and around the Jamaica Bay area, including beach
nourishment and dune fortification, breakwaters, bulkheads, storm surge barrier, wetlands, and living shore lands. As part of the implementation of this plan,


tal Ocean Model) and  wa
ter quality
(Row-  Co
lumn AESOP [Advanced Ecological Systems Modeling Program]) modules (Isleib
and Thuman, 2011; Testa et al., 2014). NYCDEP runs the model and provides resulting infor -
mation concerning attainment of NY


re available to the
proj ec
t. Table B.1
Potential Watershed/Sewershed Hydrology and Hydraulics Models
Model Description Source of Model Comments
Infoworks sewershed
models (Innovyze, 2018)NYCDEP This model provides information on CSOs, WWTPs, and


odel Se  le
ction
DEP’s Jamaica Bay Eutrophication Model is the model of choice (and necessity) for estimating changes in
 wa
ter quality over time throughout the Bay. JEM’s output is in terms of concentra -
tions of vari  ou
s forms of nitrogen, ph


 Will -
mott (1981) and Warner, Geyer, and Lerczak (2005). Figure B.3 shows the mea  su
red and cal -
culated time series of mid-  de
pth  wa
ter temperature and salinity at Rockaway Inlet near Floyd
Bennett Field for the entire simulation period.81


mined over a 50-  ye
ar planning period. The 50-  ye
ar SLR pro -
jections  we
re based on the NPCC estimates (Horton et al., 2015). A median value for SLR of
0.43 m was utilized  he
re. No other conditions  we
re altered from their present-  da
y v


of 69   per
cent of the initial area.
The mudflat loss contains both the loss in mudflat area and the gain in mudflat area due to the conversion of salt marsh.
As shown in Figure C.4, the WR test shows very
 li
ttle salt marsh loss, and so the mudf


rsh and salt scrub in the FWOA case. The increase in upland in the IN test is due to the land build-up to create the narrowing.Year 0
Year 50FW
GS
JS
IN
WR
PR
FW
GS
JS
IN
WR
PR
02 04 0
Percentage of area60 80 100
Deep lagoon Shallow lagoon
Salt scrub


Shallowing test has the largest impact
with a 31-  per
cent reduction in total inundated area and a 35-  per
cent or greater reduction of
developed medium-   an
d high-  in
tensity area inundation. All four neighborhoods see reductions
in inundate


ration approaches. As shown in  Ta
ble C.5, for
the FWOA test, the residence times for the Grassy Bay simulation are approximately the same, with values of 6.14 for Year 0 and 6.16 for Year 50. For the Whole Bay simulations, the resi -
dence times a


fset t
he extremely high
nitrogen loading of the Bay.
Discussion
Results of  th
ese sensitivity tests should be interpreted with caution. The intent was to help
the study team establish  whe
ther the models had sufficient resolution and sensitivity


Research and Management Information Network, 2018. As of June 12, 2018:  http://www.ciesin.org/jamaicabay/legislation/Local_Law_05071_NYC.pdf
City of New York, “Jamaica Bay Watershed Protection Plan (updated from 2005),” 2016. As of March 23, 2018:


n, D. R. Johnson, and K. Giglio, Strengthening Coastal Planning:
How Coastal Regions Could Benefit from Louisiana’s Planning and Analy  si
s Framework , Santa Monica, Calif.:
RAND Corporation, RR-437-  RC
, 2014. As of June 12, 2018:
https://www.


017, pp. 43–59.
Kopp, R., R. DeConto, D. Bader, C. Hay, R. Horton, S. Kulp, M. Oppenheimer, D. Pollard, and B. Strauss, “Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice-
 Sh
eet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea-  Le
vel
Projections,” Earth’s  Fu
t


East: NY Rising Community Reconstruction Plan, New York, 2014. As of March 23, 2018:
https://stormre covery.ny.gov/sit es/default/file s/crp/community/d ocuments/rockawa yeast_nyrcr_plan_29m b.pdf
New York State Department of Environmental Conserva


itzpatrick, and K. Dahl, Encroaching Tides: How Sea Level Rise and Tidal
Flooding Threaten U.S. East and Gulf Coast Communities over the Next 30 Years , Cambridge, Mass.: Union of
Concerned Scientists, 2014. As of March 23, 2018:  https://www.ucsus


arch Program, 2017.Visionmaker NYC, homepage, 2018. As of June 12, 2018:
https://visionmaker.us/nyc/
Wang, H., Q. Chen, K. Hu, G. A. Snedden, E. K. Hartig, B. R. Couvillion, C. L. Johnson, P. M. Orton,
Numerical Modeling of the Impacts of Hurrican


Craig A. Bond, Aaron Strong, Nicholas Burger,
and Sarah WeilantLimited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights
This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND
intellectual property is provided for


c–private partnerships; transportation policy; climate response, mitigation, and adaptation; environmental sustainability; and water resource management and coastal protection. Program research is supported by government agencies, foundations, and th


of Social Welfare over Time  7
Figure 2.3.
Dynamic Welfare Paths for Project and BAU Cases  7
Figure 3.1.
Changes in Outcomes due to Changes in the Allocation Mechanism  11
Figure 3.2.
Valuing a Project with No Co-Benefits and a Single Shock  14
F


ociated with the resilience project—is a key part of what distinguishes a resilience project from an intervention that focuses solely on disaster risk recovery outcomes. In particular, what might be termed a resilience lens  is a view that approaches


assets, we do not use the model to explicitly estimate system wealth. Rather, the conceptual structure of inclusive wealth, in which goods and services contribute to human well-being and are produced through a combination of capital stocks and techn


nterventions might change underlying behavior provides practical guidance for data collection efforts and estimating elements of the dividend.
Section 5 discusses skills that might be useful when
applying the RVDM, some real-world issues in dealing


d Sustainability.”
Annual Review of Resource Economics  8: 77-98.
2 Irwin, E. G., et al. (2016).
5 Section 2  Motivating the Resilience Dividend Valuation Model: Inclusive Wealth TheoryDynamics of the System
The inclusive wealth theory is inherently


erministic path to illustrate the idea
of a resilience dividend. In the next section, we expand these ideas to consider stochastic shocks, as the focus of resilience is on the ability to absorb as well as recover from shocks.
7 Section 2  Motivati


f the
components of a project. When projects have multiple mechanisms that affect the system, each part’s value may be important in and of itself regardless of the value of the larger project (or portfolio of projects). Importantly, the framework al


ence Dividend Valuation Model and Case ArchetypesGoods and services provide the “physical” measure of
the items that are valued in the system. In economic terms, value refers to the willingness and ability of a stakeholder to pay for an extra unit o


at the very least, have a sense of which capital stocks combine to produce which goods and services, and anticipate if a resilience project has the potential to change these relationships relative to BAU. For example, a project that introduces new cr


an capital stocks), man-made capital (tools), and fertilizer (a market good).
11 Section 3  Elements of the Resilience Dividend Valuation Model and Case ArchetypesFigure 3.1.
Changes in Outcomes due to Changes in the Allocation Mechanism
Project
In


values used and endeavor to follow best practices in monetizing flows, as in benefit-cost analysis.
7
Shocks and Stressors
Benefits from resilience projects are related to the ability of people to better withstand and recover from disruptions, to im


. When aggregated over all stakeholders, a positive change in the net present value of the difference in welfare paths is evidence of a positive resilience dividend.Example Settings
for Applying the Resilience Dividend Valuation Model
In this sectio


e of the resilience project, this differential at each point in time is also a component of the resilience dividend. We note, however, that we are likely to only have partial empirical evidence about the full dividend, as we are unable to observe eve


alculated as the net present value of the difference in welfare over some time period; in this case, the ex post calculation could be done from the time just after project implementation to the present day.
Ex Post Evaluation of a
Project with a St


eory, use degenerate probability distributions for individual shocks (i.e., the probability of the event occurring in the future is one) to model particular scenarios.
17 Section 3  Elements of the Resilience Dividend Valuation Model and Case Archety


 dividend, and incorporating the dividend in the planning process may make it easier to carry out the project in a way that supports causal analysis.
Practitioners should strive to quantify the resilience
dividend to the greatest extent possible, wh


BAU case.
 For counterfactuals that use a non-
resilience project as the BAU case, define the associated activities, as you did with the project activities.
2. Map the system
– Identify the relevant capital stocks for the
system being modeled.
 Defi


ns that might occur under should these events occur at particular magnitudes. In other words, this step provides the theoretical logical relationships between the shocks/stressors and elements of the system.
4. Conceptualize how the BAU case and
int


r Foundation, Arup International Development.
 Tanner, T. M., et al. (2015). The Triple Dividend of Resilience:
Realising development goals through the multiple benefits of disaster risk management. London, Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and


anges in institutions indirectly change the flow of goods and services through changes in behavior, reinforcing the importance of modeling behavior with RDVM via the allocation mechanism.
The following categories seem particularly
important in the


ces produced or consumed should be defined. In cases of direct provision of goods and services, this is trivial. In other cases (such as changes in social capital, institutional structure, or system norms), a specific logic sub-model representing the


in time.Apply the marginal/average values to each good and service to convert into monetary terms for each estimation step above. Using the values obtained in the previous steps, the monetary value of changes in flows of goods and services calculate


ne. This calibrated model
may be as extravagant as a coupled hydrologic-ecologic-economic model or taking the results from a similar intervention in another area and transferring those benefits to the intervention at issue. Many disaster risk reduct


ariety of circumstances.
Section 4 describes an ideal use of the inclusive wealth
theory to estimate the resilience dividend, but it is primarily conceptual in nature. Although practitioners should strive to accomplish each step to the best of their


e linkages are assumptions that would typically be represented by simulation models. Ultimately, the dynamic project and BAU paths (see, e.g., Figure 2.3) are aggregations of the value of changes provided by changes in the system elements.
Working wi


m accordingly and in conjunction with the project budget. There is a trade-off between the extent to which the resilience dividend can be characterized and the resources used to estimate it. As such, prioritization is in order. For example, in some c


 from shocks and stresses, and to adapt and grow from a disruptive experience
Resilience Capacities – Absorptive Reﬂected by either ex ante or ex post project
performance evaluation, generally related to the ability to either reduce damage from a st


and K.-G. Mäler (2000). “Net national product, wealth, and social well-being.”
Environment and Development Economics , 5(01): 69-93.
Dinda, S. (2008). “Social capital in the creation of human capital and economic growth: A productive
consumption ap


Leveraging Technology to Enhance
Community Supervision
Identifying Needs to Address Current and Emerging Concerns
Joe Russo, Dulani Woods, George B. Drake, Brian A. Jackson
EXECUTIVE SUM MARY
RESULTS
• Automated tools are needed to quickly identify


ring, into a single device. Such a system could detect emergency situations based on an officer’s physiological indicators, determine the offi-cer’s location, and alert authorities to respond to that location. Participants also noted that efforts to


used in synthetic drugs, as opposed to exact chemical matches, might be a more realistic and sustainable objective that yields equally useful information.
Leveraging technology
can help an agency improve operational effectiveness, providing the oppo


nders in the community presents difficult
and complex challenges and, overall, the corrections sector has not produced the results that the public expects. Community corrections initiatives have been perceived as both ineffective in changing offende


effec -
tive community supervision can be accomplished only if all available resources are fully leveraged. Agencies often look to technology to help them do more with less. As part of its multiyear research effort supporting NIJ, the Priority Crimin


 VR or AR
for skill development (for staff and offenders).
It can be difficult to know whether officers are applying the skills (e.g., motivational interviewing) they have learned with fidelity.• Explore the viability of using automated video analyt


ach challenge. Once the needs were identified in each category, the research team used a variant of the Delphi Method, a process designed to bring a group of experts closer to consensus (RAND Corporation, undated). The team asked the participants to


ns in-house; selecting a data model; creating sample requests for proposal and contract language).
There is potential for more-efficient internal coordination and coordination with local services through the use of geographic information systems (GIS


mpetencies, which is key to achieving better outcomes. Some of these opportunities exist even before an individual joins an agency. For example, the participants noted that many academic programs do not provide students with the relevant skills (e.g.


agencies (Goldstein, 2017). For example, the New York City Police Department is piloting a VR-based active shooter training drill (Kim, Hartmann, and Sowa, 2019), and the Chi -
cago Police Department is exploring VR to help train officers to deal wit


 recom -
mended the development of a model microlearning curriculum tailored specifically for community supervision that could be evaluated for efficacy.
Improving Officer Safety
Community supervision officers are routinely exposed to a vari -
ety of


locations before officers approach.
Finally, participants noted that efforts to improve safety
are hindered by a lack of data on the risks faced by commu -
nity supervision officers on a daily basis. Although the Federal Bureau of Investigations’ (F


 obstacles to conducting revalidations (e.g., cost, Because officers often
make unannounced home visits or execute warrants, they can happen upon dangerous situations  (e.g., congregation of gang members, clandestine drug labs). 9time) and potential


hes.
• Conduct research into the relative effectiveness of mobile,
community-based supervision versus office-based supervision approaches.
Agencies need guidance to effectively support and manage a more mobile workforce (e.g., technology requirement


iscussed was automated reminder systems (e.g., texts, emails, phone calls, smartphone applica -
tions). Although there is some evidence that automated remind -
ers can reduce failure to appear rates (Elek, Sapia, and Keilitz, 2017), the participants


 technology advances in support of a transition away from the fortress probation model. Fortress probation  emerged in the mid-1990s as a common description
of the traditional operations of community supervision officers (Hanser, 2018). In this mode


rmine
the impact of increased officer mobility on offender outcomes, community support, officer safety, and officer job satisfaction and retention.
Holding Offenders Accountable
Offenders serving a period of community supervision are obli -
gated to


acy and applicability of such emerging techniques as fingerprint sweat analysis and eye scans. Participants also expressed interest in exploring the feasibility of biosensors, or microchips injected under the skin of the offender to detect and wirele


 Best practices are needed to determine the most
appropriate response (and timing of response) based on such factors as type of alert, offender risk level, and agency workload.
Emerging supervision technology (e.g., sensors, cameras) can record an o


h the chal -
lenges associated with supervising lower-risk offenders. Although evidence-based practices dictate that resources should be prioritized toward managing higher-risk offenders (Andrews, Bonta, and Hoge, 1990), agencies have an obligation t


justice agencies. As a result, crimes might go unsolved. Offender accountability could be improved by deploying emerging automated techniques (e.g., facial rec -ognition, social media entity resolution), and the participants argued for research exami


 to improve efficiencies. • Research solutions that can be integrated into existing case-
management systems.
Despite past research and development efforts, automated voice translation services are not yet able to meet agency needs.• Conduct research


hat officers be able to communicate with offenders. Participants noted that existing automated voice translation services are not adequately accurate or reliable, and research is needed to further refine these systems.
The group discussed the variet


applications, experiences, and best practices for leveraging solu -
tions to meet operational objectives would benefit the field.
Finally, the participants discussed body-worn cameras as
an emerging tool with the potential to yield important benefit


orkforce on outcomes. Best practices are needed to guide agencies as they imple -
ment mobility strategies.
• Holding offenders accountable:  The use of location -
monitoring technologies is increasing, and there are sig -
nificant associated costs i


 the research agenda that structured the topics presented in the main report. The descriptions in this appendix are adapted from those in previ -
ous Priority Criminal Justice Needs Initiative publications and reflect adjustments to the needs identif


acilitating Positive Behavioral Change: Challenges
and Solutions
Protecting the Public: Challenges and SolutionsHolding Offenders Accountable: Challenges and
Solutions
Improving Competencies: Challenges and Solutions18For the probability of success


ymakers. Specifically, the top-tier needs are the priorities that should be the primary policymaking focus, the second-tier needs should be examined closely, and the third-tier needs are probably not worth much attention in the near term (unless, for


e number of participants voting.To prevent the (somewhat rare) situation in which small
numbers of votes have an unintended outsized impact—for example, when some or all of the needs in one tier have the same or very similar expected values—we requi


igher than the highest expected
value score in its initial tier. A need could decrease by one tier  if
its modified expected value was lower than the lowest expected value in its initial tier. However, to increase or decrease by two tiers (which wa


et al., 2019).
References
Andrews, Donald A., James Bonta, and Robert D. Hoge, “Classification for Effective Rehabilitation: Rediscovering Psychology,” Criminal Justice and Behavior , Vol. 17, No. 1, March
1990, pp. 19–52.
Casey, Pamela M., Jennifer


oving Court Operations and Outcomes , Santa Monica, Calif.: R AND Corporation, RR-1255-NIJ,
2016. As of September 9, 2019: http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1255.html
Jackson, Brian A., Joe Russo, John S. Hollywood, Dulani Woods,
Richard


ch_reports/RR2698.html
Taxman, Faye S., “Probation and Diversion: Is There a Place at the
Table and What Should We Serve?” Victims and Offenders , Vol. 5,
No. 3, June 2010, pp. 233–239.
Thompson, Doug, “‘Good Grid’ Aims to Benefit Parolees, Those


r a 25-year career. His primary focus is offender tracking technology, and he is frequently called on for expert witness testimony. He holds a master’s in business administration.
Brian A. Jackson is a senior physical scientist at the RAND Corporati


nformation on reprint and
linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html. For more information on this publication, visit www.
rand.org/t/rr3213.This publication was made possible by Award Number 2013-MU-CX-K003, awarded by the


CORPORATIONUsing Social Media and Social
Network Analysis in Law Enforcement
Creating a Research Agenda, Including Business
In April 2017, the National Institute of Justice convened
an expert panel to assess, and identify high-priority needs for, l


nforcement; (3) law enforcement–specific training on these types of analysis; and (4) creation of a help desk to help law enforcement agencies navigate requests to social media companies and interpret the resulting data.Key Findings
Cases, Protection


ns are to develop requirements for training and assess gaps between current com -
mercial- and defense-focused training and what is needed for law enforcement training. This implicitly includes studies and analyses of what tools and methods are worki


of crime. Law enforcement interaction with social media and use of social media data is therefore important, given the need to police in this technological era. However, social media analysis by law enforcement does raise acute privacy, security, and


analysis. Ahajjam, El Haddad, and Badir (2018) provide an example of a contemporary method for identifying likely influencers and leaders in social networks (in brief, these influencers/leaders typically have higher numbers of both direct and indirec


s (e.g., Popper, 2014). More broadly, police have used evidence of crimes posted online, including offenders posting photos of crime scenes and bragging about them, to hold offenders accountable (Dughi, 2016).
• Prioritizing subjects for gang call-i


 these types of analysis in law enforcement, was to provide insight to the law enforcement community, including practitioners, funders, and developers, on how these technologies might be used and secured effec-tively. This included
•
 id
entifying e


ions are needed; and specific problems or opportunities related to social media data and social network analysis that should be discussed at the workshop. In addition to providing a way for panelists to contribute to shaping the discussion during the


ch can be technical but can also concern policy, practice, organization, or training. In our work, each need consists of a problem/opportunity statement and a solution statement. There can be multiple solution statements—and hence multiple needs—for


ng groups of needs, we first created a network (or graph) of needs by defining links between pairs of needs if the needs addressed similar issues or proposed the same type of solution. Displaying the network revealed that the needs and their rela-tio


cussion
focused on how these needed to be worked out at the local level, community by community. This led to panel discussions on the need for transparency and how to engage communities more effectively, with the Privacy Advisory Council of Oak-land


a combination of social media postings and other law enforcement tips. Risk is also determined through relationships to others involved in violence and other major crimes (as detected through co-arrest records, field interview reports, social media


ionship links.
•Reviewing social media postings and videos to capturerelationships, such as people appearing in the same photosand videos, and threats made against specified persons ingroups.
•Counting co-arrest links with others who went on tobecome


tion measures such as focused deter -
rence, care must be taken to avoid punishing people for crimes
they might commit in the future but have not actually commit -
ted. Similarly, analysts need to be able to differentiate between people who are high


her entities of interest. As examples, a 2013 FBI bul -
letin presented applications of identifying why two rival gangs suddenly started battling each other; identifying a previously unknown associate of an at-large suspect, which put pressure on tha


o you do with the results? For example,
results leading to increased punishment should result in much higher scrutiny than results leading to increased community engagement.
Protections for Data Collection
Protections for data collection relate prim


rviews due to a perceived need to update a social media or social network analysis database. They also suggested a need for policies to prevent conducting more stops based only on casual social connections that have not been confirmed to be genuine c


rts of legacy guidance are out-dated and how to replace them.
The second part of this theme builds off improved relations
with stakeholders to collectively develop model procedures and policies . Specific needs here include developing policies for


gists, and law enforcement should collaborate from the beginning.Conduct research on best practices with regard to actions taken by practitioners from multiple disciplines when risks are identified.
There are challenges in balancing transparency, pri


hes for overcom-ing them, and a way ahead to conduct the studies, analyses, and educational material development needed to prepare law enforcement–focused materials for social media and social net-work analysis training. As a short-term training prio


en requesting information from social media organizations or collecting it from devices, the resulting data set is often huge (data overload).Develop easy-to-use, search engine–like functionality for large data sets in a variety of formats (text, ima


process requests are often unusable or difficult to correlate with existing data.Establish or fund a liaison that can be a source of knowledge on how to obtain usable information from specific sources (mobile phone companies, social media companies,


panel’s agenda (Theme 4) is to develop
a help desk that will help law enforcement agencies navigate requests to social media companies. The help desk would help agencies with making process requests more likely to result in data returns and/or conte


roadly similar are on larger “branches.” One can divide points into a set number of clusters by taking the points on each of the highest-level branches (“limbs”) to be a cluster. Figure A.2 shows the dendrogram and resulting clusters (“top limbs”) re


 needs were found to be an outlier.
Priority needs satisfied any of the three following criteria:
•
 Ne
ed in Tier 1 (from hierarchical clustering).
• Ne
ed in Tier 2 but had high importance (median potential
importance at 8 or higher). These can b


or
covert SM
researchBP forpublic
discourse
of SM
usesBP for
multi-
stakeholder
responses
to risksPolicy
assessment
of privacy
councils
SOP for paid SM tools
BP for public
discourse of SNA uses
SOP for
undercover SM investigations
Training o


e is a lack of public review and discussion of law enforcement policies on social media.Develop best practices for transparency with regard to use of social media data.
When analyses provide valuable insights into risk to members of the public, then


s to redact video evidence (e.g., discovery, evidence/exhibits, and public/freedom of information).Conduct a forum for the existing software developers and practitioners/users to exchange information on the shortcomings of existing software.
There is


. Other Needs from the Social Media/Social Network Analysis Workshop
Issue Need Comment
There are not enough social network analysis
practitioners to meet the demand.Conduct research into the gaps between where the profession is now and where it sho


social media or directly with law enforcement. In such situations, geolocation or entity resolution (who is in the picture, etc.) is difficult.Develop or identify tools (software or services) that can identify geographic features in images and correl


 California, “Privacy Advisory Commission,’”
webpage, 2017. As of July 10, 2017: http://www2.oaklandnet.com/government/o/CityAdministration/d/PrivacyAdvisoryCommission/index.htm
Coldren, James, and John Markovic, “Utilizing Social Network
Analysis


, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, RR-1462-
NIJ, 2016. As of July 10, 2017:  http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1462.html
Hollywood, John S., Dulani Woods, Andrew Lauland, Brian A.
Jackson, and Richard Silberglitt, Addressing Emergin


M International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining (ASONAM ’13) , 2013, pp. 1042–1049. As of April 9, 2018:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1306.6834.pdf
Pew Research Center, “How We Analyzed Twitter Social Media
Networks with Node


t
On behalf of the U.S. Department of Justice, National Institute of Justice (NIJ), the RAND Corporation, in partnership with
the Police Executive Research Forum (PERF), RTI International, and the University of Denver, is carrying out a research eff


D intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission i


CORPORATION
Design Perspectives on
Delivery Drones
Jia XuLimited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights
This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND
intellectual property is provided for noncom


Implications of Drones for Package Delivery: A Geographic Information
System Comparison (Gulden, 2017)
•  Small Unmanned Aerial System Certification and Traffic Management Systems (Kuhn, forthcoming)
•  International Commercial Drone Regulation a


e central to the viability of delivery drones. Importantly, key design constraints and expected performance levels also speak to the potential scalability of the concept.
A brief analysis of the requirements shows that a 10- to 15-mile delivery radi


be more efficient, but it also requires sufficiently dense delivery demands.
  ix Acknowledgments
I would like to thank Ilan Kroo and Mykel Kochenderfer at Stanford University, Rick Gaeta
at Oklahoma State University, and Parimal Kopardekar at N


 key technological developments are also aligning to enable
drone logistics systems. The last decade has witnessed the proliferation of smartphones and electric cars, as well as the emergence of autonomous ground vehicles. These developments have co


s to just 5.4 miles. Figure 2.1 shows that the radii of the vast majority of U.S. cities  is in the 2–6-mile range. These results suggest that most cities can
be covered by just a few drone fulfillment centers (located either in the urban centers or


onomous guided parachutes are used in the military to support forward logistics (Jorgensen and Hickey, 2005). However, an unpowered guided parachute suffers from low control authority and maneuverability and would have a hard time navigating around o


in shaping community noise standards). The FAA recently
published its Part 107 rules to regulate small unmanned aerial system (sUAS) operations (including small  commercial delivery systems). Part 107 mentions noise as a potential issue but
also co


ers further potential for noise improvements. The ability to
turn off rotors in different phases of flight and to optimize different rotors for hover and cruise can help a drone achieve optimal disk loading and flight efficiency across the flight en


 IC engines, small multicopters benefit greatly from the reliability and compactness of electric motors. The virtue of the multicopter is in its simplicity:
•  Differential thrust replaces the mechanically complex combination of cyclic and
collect


s can achieve L/Ds of 4–5; moderately sized, fixed-wing UAVs can
generally manage L/Ds of 10–15; and modern airliners can achieve an L/D of 20 in the much more demanding transonic flight regime. In a grossly simplified scenario where weight, payload


 failures. Thus, electric power and distributed propulsion can bridge the historical chasm between good hover and cruise performance in VTOL aircraft (at least for small, short-range applications).
The benefits of distributed electric propulsion als


in Figure 4.1 is composed of two cruise segments and two 30-second hover segments, one with and one without payload. The hover segments account for the time the drone might need to (1) approach and maneuver around dense areas, (2) find suitable landi


guration with dedicated hover-and-cruise motors and offloads lift load to the wings in cruise. The drone is powered by eight dedicated lift rotors grouped in four counter-rotating banks, as well as by two  counter-rotating cruise motors.
Onboard avi


energy consumption grow dramatically as the
range requirement increases. While most aircraft show a super-linear increase in energy use as
range and payload capacity increase, the lower energy density of batteries makes this trend more pronounced.


for the baseline design 17 and plot the variation in converged UAV outcomes. We also superimpose the likely capacity of
advanced battery chemistries, such as zinc-air and lithium-air batteries, on the plot.
Figure   4.4.  Converged   Baseline  UAV


delivery drone, has a much higher cruise L/D of 20 as its design objective (Fredericks, Moore, and Busan, 2013). However, the demonstrated value is not yet known. Thus, in the subsequent analysis, we use the more conservative value of 5.6.
We assume


the potential of multi-stop deliveries enabled by the
more-advanced drones. The requirements and performance for four single- and multi-stop vehicles are summarized in Table 4.1. In this scenario, each package is assumed to weigh 5 lb
(2.3 kg). For


gy density can also make
multi-stop delivery attractive. However, there are likely to be diminishing returns even for the advanced drone.  22 Chapter  Five .  Conclusion s
In this report, we explored the vehicle design aspects of the delivery dron


s    Baseline    Advanced
Aerodynamics
L/D  (glide  ratio)    3   5.6
Power  and  Propulsion
Electronics  power  (kW)    0.3   0.25
Battery -specific  energy  (Wh/kg)    195   253
Hover  figure  of  merit    0.6   0.65
Cruise  power


n is to scale the AW609 L/D results down to
the likely dimensions of the delivery drone. Viscous scaling can substantially affect the aircraft profile drag 𝐶
%3through the skin friction coefficient 𝐶B. The profile drag accounts for about one-
half o


Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (sUAS),” Washington,
D.C.: U.S. Department of Transportation, Advisory Circular No. 107-2, June 21, 2016. As of
September 15, 2017: https://www.faa.gov/uas/media/AC_107-2_AFS-1_Signed.pdf
Fredericks, William J., Mar


o Larry Page’s Secret Flying-Car Factories,”
Bloomberg Businessweek, June 9, 2016. As of August 14, 2016: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-09/welcome-to-larry-page-s-secret-flying-car-factories
Van Noorden, Richard, “The Rechargeable


Managing the Seriously Mentally Ill
in Corrections
John S. Shaffer, Joe Russo, Dulani Woods, Brian A. Jackson
On behalf of the National Institute of Justice (NIJ),
the Priority Criminal Justice Needs Initiative con-vened an expert workshop to iden


r emphasis is needed on prevention, early detection,
and intervention, particularly for children.
•Law e
nforcement agencies need training for better response
to incidents involving individuals with SMI and for alternativesto jail.
•
The c
ourts need


vide adequate care to the population of individuals with SMI, particularly those with limited financial resources or social support (Shadish, Lugirio, and Lewis, 1989).
Several salient socioeconomic and demographic factors
correlated with SMI also


Law, and Hanson, 1998). An examination of particular criminal risk factors among prison inmates showed that levels of criminal thinking and attitudes are as high, or higher, among the mentally ill as compared with the non–mentally ill (Morgan et al.


rcera-tion.
Although some jurisdictions are making great strides with
respect to how the criminal justice system deals with individu-als with SMI, significant challenges and opportunities for improved outcomes remain. As part of a multiyear researc


 were Osher et al., 2012; Judicial Council
of California, Administrative Office of the Courts, 2011; and Judicial
Council of California, Administrative Office of the Courts, 2015. 3safety, specialty courts and jail diversion, institutional program-


) Adult Probation
Larry Fitch
National Association of State Mental Health Program Directors
Mark Foxall
Douglas County (Neb.) Department of Corrections (formerly)
Julie Jones
Florida Department of Corrections (formerly)
Nneka Jones Tapia
Cook County


xpected value scores for each need from the first round (weighted by the number of participants who had rated each need, because not all par-ticipants did so for each need) and, in some cases, the change in scoring changed the ranking tier to which t


y life. Furthermore, criminogenic needs (e.g., substance use disorders, criminal thinking, antiso-cial peers) often are not addressed and these factors are more strongly linked to future involvement with the justice system than the underlying mental


Data-driven
accountability
and overarching needs Community-based treatment
Policing and
public safety
Specialty courts and jail diversionInstitutionalprogrammingReentrycoordinationand relapse prevention6Table 1. Needs Identified Related to Communi


ces
for mental health treatment providers.
Society has failed to prioritize the needs of the mentally ill population, particularly those with the most severe illnesses or “problematic” behaviors.•
 Co
nduct research to identify the gaps in cooperati


based treatment. Ulti-mately, coordinated messaging from diverse groups could have greater impact in galvanizing support. These collaborations also might begin to break down barriers in some jurisdictions between agencies and providers who serve just


 that they can better support their children.
Of course, the onset of symptoms of mental illness can
occur at any age, so more-effective outreach and engagement services on a broader scale are required. The participants argued that the current leve


SMI decompensate to the point at which they clearly require acute care, but their conditions fall short of legal standards for involuntary evaluation or commitment. The group was divided on this issue. On one hand, mental health advocates strongly o


alls for police service and are two
to three times more likely to be arrested compared with the general population (Chappell, 2013; Teplin, 1990). Many of these interactions are the result of relatively minor, nonviolent offenses not directly associ


alized training on effective interaction with individuals with SMI.10sizes collaboration and coordination between law enforcement
agencies and mental health providers. In some jurisdictions, police officers and mental health crisis staff are coordin


but is different in two major ways.
Table 2. Needs Identified Related to Policing and Public Safety
Tier Problem or Opportunity Associated Need
1 Many law enforcement officers do not receive
comprehensive training (e.g., culturally sensitive CIT
t


iate for diversion) at
the policing level typically advance to the next stage of the justice system: appearance before a court. In a growing num-ber of jurisdictions, such cases might be transferred from the general criminal docket to a mental healt


l thinking, and antisocial attitudes; housing and employment; and mental health treatment) appear most likely to be effective at reducing recidivism.12through a mental health court (Andrews, 2015). The workshop
participants identified several challe


illness in general, how these disorders (and associated factors, including co-occurring disor-ders, poverty, and criminogenic needs) affect individuals and their ability to live law-abiding lives, the unique risks posed by offenders with SMI, and ef


 workshop participants explored this component next.
INSTITUTIONAL PROGRAMMING
Although the group acknowledged that the needs of many justice-involved individuals with SMI are generally  better served
in the community, participants also recognized t


’s major recommendations with respect to institutional program-ming. The full list of needs is provided in Table
 4
. Although
the recommendations focus primarily on the delivery of mental health services, it was understood that all inmates, includi


ot known for measures or outcomes (e.g., recidivism).•
 Co
nduct research to determine the effectiveness of institution-
based interventions on recidivism.
The cost of psychotropic medications is a challenge. •  De
velop best practices for managing


proaches to expand capacity that were discussed include using mid-level practitioners (e.g., physician assistants and nurse practitioners) and leveraging such technology as tele-psychiatry to deliver services in a cost-effective manner.
The Role of


ntives for inmates to engage in and sustain treatment over the long term. Furthermore, the group identified the key role of staff in creating an environment conducive to treat-ment and argued that best practices are needed with respect to staffing re


istrative segregation for the most dangerous individuals with SMI.
Treatment Concerns
The group discussed several challenges related to delivering treatment in a correctional setting. One major issue is the lack of standardization with respect to me


skills; low levels of education; unstable hous-ing; and unaddressed criminogenic needs, such as substance use disorders and criminal thinking patterns. When they leave, these problems can persist and be significant impediments to successful reentry.


on in order to achieve desired outcomes. This should begin before release in the form of “in-reach” initiatives, in which social service agencies are invited into the institution Recovery is a process,
and relapse is part of that process, but recove


the
entire person and all of his or her needs (i.e., housing, employment, support system, substance use issues).•
 De
velop best practices that address a mandatory in-reach and
warm hand-off policy for health services personnel.
Correctional agenci


c awareness initiatives) and believed that it would be beneficial to document best practices to help commu-nities identify, access, or apply for these opportunities.
The group also noted challenges associated with miscon-
ceptions or misgivings that


sharing can have immediate and irreversible implications. Consider the case of the law enforce-ment officer responding to a call without the benefit of critical information about the mental health status of the subject. Too
Resources are generally


d work-ing groups with the goal of highlighting the evidence-based research and creating a framework for putting the research into practice.
One specific impediment to research is the lack of stan-
dard definitions of terms (e.g., SMI, recidivism, h


lla could be one of these strategies. In New York City, for example, cor-rectional health services are under the purview of the Depart-ment of Health and Mental Hygiene (Davis and Cloud, 2015). Wisconsin relies on a collaboration between the Departme


l and mental health purposes.
Often, a lack of uniformity in the assessment tools used on the same individual makes continuity of care more challenging.•
 De
velop a catalog and identify best practices (and appropri-
ate training) for integrating the


s) to screen for mental illness in a way that does not stigmatize the child. Furthermore, greater emphasis on life-skills development in early childhood might prepare individuals to handle the day-to-day challenges that can be overwhelming to the men


an ample supply of medications, as needed. Such efforts also should arrange “warm hand-offs.” Postincarceration supervision should continue to emphasize treatment and continuity of care rather than punishment, keeping in mind that relapse can be par


they can provide safe environments in which to deliver treatment that targets both mental health and criminogenic needs.24APPENDIX: MANAGING THE
SERIOUSLY MENTALLY ILL IN CORRECTIONS DETAILED METHODOLOGY
This appendix presents additional detail on t


 score of 1 rep-resented a judgment that the probability of overcoming barriers was low, so successful development and adoption was unlikely
Table A.1. Workshop Agenda
Day 2
8:30 Challenges and Solutions Discussion (continued)
10:00 Break
10:15 Pri


e bar indicates the number of needs that had that score and the color of the bar indicates the tier to which the need was ultimately assigned by the clustering algorithm.
Figure A.1. Example Round 1 Delphi Summary Question
Issue: Communities and fam


n, individuals with SMI churn through the criminal justice system, experiencing multiple arrests and
periods of incarceration. As community psychiatric facilities were closed in an effort to deinstitutionalize people
suffering from mental illness,


ormed by their individual experience, we encourage you
to think broadly about the state of corrections in general as opposed to your individual perspective.
Part IPlease assign levels of importance (from 1 to 5), where 1 is low importance, and 5 is


t are the major issues or problems related to specialty courts/jail diversion?
Institutional Programming includes mental health and substance abuse treatment services provided in the institu-
tional setting (considering operational and resource needs


 U.S. Department of Justice, June 2017.
Chappell, Duncan, ed., Policing and the Mentally Ill: International
Perspectives , Boca Raton, Fla., 2013.
Charette, Yanick, Anne G. Crocker, and Isabelle Billette, “Police Encounters Involving Citizens with M


 Center, 2016.
Graziani, Cate, “Mental Health and Criminal Justice Coalition Visits
Bexar County,” Grassroots Leadership blog, May
 2
3, 2016. As of
June 24
, 2018:
https://grassrootsleadership.org/blog/2016/05/mental-health-and-criminal-justice-c


Comorbidity Survey—Adolescent Supplement (NCS-A),” Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry , Vol.
 4
9,
No. 1
0, 2010, pp.  9
80–989.
Metzner, J. L., “Class Action Litigation in Correctional Psychiatry,” Journal of the Ame


nley, “National
Estimates of Recovery-Remission from Serious Mental Illness,” Psychiatric Services, Vol.
 6
9, No.  5
, May 2018, pp.  5
23–528.
SAMHSA— See Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services
Administration.
Schwartz, Emma, “Mental Health C


 Illness: Anosognosia,”
Mental Illness Policy Org webpage, February
 2
0, 2017. As of
December  4
, 2018:
https://mentalillnesspolicy.org/medical/anosognosia-studies.html
Torrey, E. Fuller, Mary T. Zdanowicz, Aaron D. Kennard,
H. R
ichard Lamb,


 His research focuses on institutional and community corrections technologies and on identifying the high-priority technology needs of
agencies across the nation. He has served both the New York City Departments of Correction and Probation.
Dulani W


e. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html. For more information on this publication, visit
www.rand.org/t/RR2698
The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to


SARAH B. HUNTER, ADAM SCHERLING
Los Angeles County
Office of Diversion
and Reentry's Supportive Housing Program
A Study of Participants’ Housing
Stability and New Felony Convictions
Los Angeles (LA) County is home to the
largest jail system in


ins inconclusive.
Therefore, it is important to understand whether
supportive housing is achieving its goals. The LA County program’s goals are to improve housing sta -
bility and reduce criminal justice involvement among individuals enrolled into


ed in our outcome
analyses ( n = 187 and n = 96; i.e., those who were
housed at least six and 12 months prior to the end of the study period) were similar to the total popula -
tion in terms of demographic, service utilization and clinical diagnos


lander 0.3% 0.5% 1.0%
White 27.3% 21.9% 21.9%
Client doesn’t know 9.0% 9.6% 14.6%
Client refused 2.3% 2.7% 4.2%
Data not collected 2.9% 3.7% 3.1%
Ethnicity Non-Hispanic/Latino 70.1% 71.1% 70.8%
Hispanic/Latino 28.6% 27.3% 28.1%
Client doesn’t know 1.


e Measure 7: Destination Classification,” March 2016. As of June 6, 2019: https://www.hudexchange.info/resource/4966/system-performance-measure-7-destination-classification/the calculation (two had moved to a higher level of
care and one was decease


ram and is part of an evalu -
ation effort by the RAND Corporation in collaboration with the Los Angeles County Department of Health Services’ Office of Diversion and Reentry; the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department; and Brilliant Corners, a nonp


CORPORATIONProsecutor Priorities, Challenges,
and Solutions
SUMMARY
State and local prosecutors face an ever-increasing array of
challenges and responsibilities, including recruiting and retaining talented and diverse prosecutors and handling, stor


stem and directly affect outcomes.
•
 re
commended conducting research into the most-promising
practices for collecting and disclosing officer misconduct and discipline issues, as well as reporting disclosure obliga-tions related to the Brady  and G


tional Law Enforcement and Cor-rections Technology Center, as well as previous NIJ-funded reports and research into the needs of prosecutors. The Priority Criminal Justice Needs Initiative regularly convenes work-shops to bring together experts, prac


tegrity unit; and two agency data officers. Panel members presented their perspectives on the scope of a problem and proposed solutions and then engaged in a dialogue to identify promising practices to address the challenges of their work. The panel


ion integrity units, the establishment and maintenance of community trust, use of risk assessment tools, and overall crime reduction strategies.
•
 Re
source allocation.  Examples of needs and innovations
in this category include training and staffi


o to law students and new attorneys who are considering which career path to choose. As one participant stated, “Younger law-yers see ‘prosecutor’ as a dirty word” because of the perception that a prosecutor’s sole purpose is to put offenders in pris


data can better support prosecutors with evidence-based information and increase the office’s trans -
parency and accountability with the public, among other goals.4Training
Properly training new prosecutors is essential, but it can be dif-
ficult fo


t community outreach efforts that aim to establish trust with the community and to enlist com -
munity engagement in cases.
Digital Information
The evidentiary procedures for the authentication and admis-sibility of digital evidence, such as social


custody established by a lawyer contributes to the fairness, efficiency, and reliability of the process (Giova, 2011). Protect-ing privacy and properly maintaining evidence are important, particularly if evidence might be used in a future case.
Howe


ipant6more-  sensible criminal justice outcomes (Kreag, 2017). But
t
he availability of large amounts of data through technologi -
cal advances can raise challenging ethical concerns, as well as
legal concerns over a defendant’s or witness’s right


partici-pant advised that data quality was excellent when it pertained to his office’s felony cases, but there was a huge decrease in quality and level of missingness for misdemeanor cases.
Litigation Strategies
Prosecutors have a great deal of auth


particularly when it occurs on social media, is one of the biggest chal-lenges prosecutors must consider when working with witnesses (Browning, 2014). The participants described various ways to reduce or prevent witness intimidation, such as working


es, which might not promote the fairest outcome. Predic-tive analytics and risk assessment tools, such as Ohio’s Risk Assessment System Misdemeanor Assessment Tool, can help prosecutors better predict whether an individual would be an ideal candidate


Taken in
total, these cases require prosecutors to consider the probative value of evidence not only when making prosecutorial decisions but also when determining whether the evidence might be favorable to the defense (District Attorneys Association


eo, 2016). Workshop participants discussed both the challenges and importance of creating conviction review units within a prosecutor’s office and acknowledged that these units can help ensure accountability and good data management practices.
Partne


ce, and practice needs (see Hollywood, Boon, et al., 2015; Jackson, Russo, et al., 2015). For this workshop, the two numerical factors that each participant was asked to score dur-ing the rating process were as follows:
1. How important each of the n


ht needs assigned to the top tier, ordered by expected value (see Table 1). For ease in relating the needs to the areas discussed in the previous section, we assigned each need to one of the following six categories:
1. staffing and resources 2. digi


Expected Value
Problem or Opportunity Associated NeedNeed Received a
High-Importance
Score Category
There is considerable uncertainty in
the most-desirable case resolution strategies and their effects on public safety.•	Conduct a review of the eff


e to typical agencies in rural and urban areas.•	Identify the most-promising practices to pool litigation technology and training resources across a state or region for mutual benefit.
◆Staffing and resources12Problem or Opportunity Associated NeedNe


omising and cost-effective practices for
long-term storage and retrieval of large quantities of physical evidence.◆Digital information13to achieve. These 14 needs are identified with a diamond in
the third column of Tables 2 and 3. Because the bre


ly on the market can help store and organize data; however, these programs often are not tailored to the specific needs of a prosecutor’s office, and some offices have encountered problems with acquiring full ownership of the data after the contractu


development of data science and predictive analytics has created the opportunity to predict and identify patterns of crime, which can help prosecutors make decisions about which types of cases to prioritize. These collaborations can also help others


ritization of Needs
During separate sessions of the workshop, we asked the panelists to discuss the challenges that they face during the pre-trial and trial phases of a case, which panelists had identified prior to the workshop. While conducting this


ard to meet) but also the effect of factors that might lead prosecutors’ offices to not adopt the new technology, policy, or practice even if it was developed; such factors could include, for example, cost, staffing concerns, and societal concerns.16


an expected value using the method outlined in Jackson, Banks, et al. (2016). For each need, we multiplied the final (second-round) ratings for importance and probability of success to produce an expected value. We then calculated the median of that


s enough to move any needs up or down in the prioritization. (Note that there were gaps between these boundaries, so some of the modified expected values could fall in between tiers. See Figure A.4.) As with prior work, we set a higher bar for a need


 3
Issue: Need: 3
Figure A.4. Illustration of How a Need’s Increase in
Expected Value Might Result in Its Movement Across Tier Boundaries
NOTE: Each example need’s original tier is shown by a circle with a
solid border (the two needs starting in Ti


you believe is most important should be
given a score of 100. Then assign scores to each other objec-tive reflecting its importance relative to that most important 20objective. For example, if another objective is equally impor-
tant, it should be s


k you two things:
First, what do you see as the primary challenges or issues
facing prosecutors today where innovation could help pros-ecutors’ offices better achieve their missions? Challenges may be chronic, where a technology or innovation may ad


essment instruments or tools that inform
decisionmaking.
• En
suring access to justice.
• Pr
omoting community safety.
• Es
tablishing and evaluating performance metrics.
• En
suring that extra-legal factors do not influence
decisionmaking.
• Es
ta


ficiency? (List as many or as few as you would like.)
1.
2.3.
6. Are there any issues, problems, or opportunities that you
see that don’t easily fit into any of the areas we defined on
this questionnaire? Is there anything you think we have missed


t Law Review , Vol.
 5
1, No.  3
, 2016, pp.  7
05–744.
Fettig, Derek T., “Who Knew What When? A Critical Analysis of the Expanding Collective Knowledge Doctrine,”  University of Missouri–
Kansas City Law Rev iew, Vol.
 8
2, No.  3
, 2014, pp.  6
63–


7–1187.
Giglio v. United States , 405 U.S. 150 at 154–155, 1972.
Giova, Giuliano, “Improving Chain of Custody in Forensic Investigation of Electronic Digital Systems,” International Journal of Computer Science and Network Security , Vol.
 1
1, No.  1


dy, Giglio, and Crime Victim Compensation Funds,”  NYU Review of Law and Social Change , Vol.
 38
, No.  3
, 2014,
pp. 4
91–503.
Johnston, E. Lea, “Conditions of Confinement at Sentencing: The Case of Seriously Disordered Offenders,” Catholic Univer


w Forum , Vol.
 1
30, 2017,
pp. 1
45–153.
Oliver, Wesley M., and Rishi Batra, “Standards of Legitimacy in Criminal Negotiations,” Harvard Negotiation Law Review , Vol.
 2
0,
2015, pp.  6
1–120.
Picard-Fritsche, Sarah, Michael Rempel, Jennifer A. Ta


w Restraints in Light of Social Media,” Fordham Law Review , Vol.
 8
4, No.  1
, 2015, pp.  3
67–406.
Walsh, Dana, “The Dangers of Eyewitness Identification: A Call for Greater State Involvement to Ensure Fundamental Fairness,” Boston College Law Rev


tter training resources and tools for the assessment of staffing needs, conducting research into promising practices for responding to instances of witness intimidation and tampering, and examining the effectiveness of plea and diversion options that


Alternative
  and
  Renewable
  Fuel
  and
  Vehicle

Technology
  Program

FINAL
  PROJECT
  REPORT

Process
  and
  Outcome
   Evaluation
  of

the
  Alternative
  and
  Renewable
  Fuel

and
  Veh icle
  T


edge the members of the proje ct’s Evaluation Advisory Committee:
David Greene from Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for
Public Policy at the University of Tennessee; Harry Hatry from the Urban Institute; Ivor John


w-carbon fuels in California
• decrease, on a full -fuel-cycle basis, the overall impact and carbon footprint of alternative
and renewable fuels and increase sustainability
• expand fuel infrastructure, fueling stations, and equipment
• improv


 projects they would not have undertaken otherwise; after
completing their ARFVTP projects, awardees overwhelmingly indicated they had taken steps to
continue to develop, market, install, or produce the funded product or technology ; and on the
wo


s and incentives. In
September 2013, the legislature reauthorized the program, extending ARFVTP funding through January 1, 2024 (Assembly Bill 8 [ Perea ]). The legislature directed CEC to develop a program
that provides gran ts, loans, and other t


gh December
2016
($ M)
Fuel or Project Type
Hydrogen  35 $93 $65
Electricity  133 $179 $132
Diesel substitutes  24 $55 $38
Gasoline substitutes  21 $62 $23
Natural gas and biomethane  77 $160 $113
Workforce  3 $25 $20
Multifuel and o the


ccessful applicants, and potential applicants.
• Conduct in -depth reviews of selected ARFVTP projects.
• Verify installation of electric vehicles supply equipment (EVSE) for a selected set of
awards.
• Assemble and analyze CEC administrative d


 specific investment areas (e.g., biofuels ), glean lessons learned from past
projects, and hear from  panels of experts who provide critical feedback on past investments
and insights into future trends.
Our analysis also suggests that stakeholde


methane  projects targeted the widest range of barriers, addressing
feedstock, fuel production, fueling infrastructure, vehicle, and consumer  barriers.
The workforce development  projects generally targeted barriers that a new industry faces in


C must take adequate time to ensure that proposed projects represent worthy uses of public fund s and to enter into
contracts that protect the public interest, but t he long period between proposal submission and
project funding for many projects c


tructure or elements; as a result , it is often difficult to ascertain what
the project accomplishments were and how those might compare, or add to, those of other
similar projects.
S.2.1.6 Have  Awardees Secured the Proposed Matching Funds?
Mo


 development projects  and a few multifuel projects ) had not  been fully achieved, and
the percentage does not vary a great deal by fuel type. Eighty -one perce nt of the technical
objectives were fully achieved, and the remaining 7 percent  eithe


by the unsuccessful applicants may
have been more poorly conceived or planned tha n those funded by the  ARFVTP.  Based on
survey responses, slightly more than  one-half of unsuccessful applicants participating in this
evaluation had not yet proce


he case.
• Could not be determined : Because there was either insufficient data on projec t
outcomes or the project team was unable to assess and interpret those outcomes, it
could not be determined whether the projects reduced this barrier.
•


 magnitude of any such decline
is difficult to determine. A few new hydrogen vehicle models were demonstrated with ARFVTP funding, so, as noted in Table S.3 , the program helped reduce this barrier; but the impact is
probably minor. Hydrogen readin


the latest
technology may well have helped reduce the production costs of alternative diesel, but we were
not able to collect any systematic data on production costs.   xxviii  For gasoline substitutes,  demonstrable progress has been made in expan


report that skilled labor presented a barrier, and most said
that it is getting easier over time to find skilled labor for their projects.
S.3 Observations on ARFVTP Investment Priorities
Our findi ngs of health and vibrancy of the ARFVT industr


 moving forward warrants careful
consideration. When the ARFVTP began, it made sense to fund the deployment of charging
stations in all types of locations, including residential , workplace, and publicly accessible sites,
and to fund  all types  o


ia ble reduction in carbon inten sity (CI) using ethanol requires both low -CI
feedstocks and a greatly expanded E85 vehicle and fueling infrastructure. The ARFVTP has
invested in both. However, g iven the ongoing challenges with low-CI ethanol pro


• Consider funding data infrastructure to measure the AR FVT workforce.  Better d ata
can enable many participants in the industry to align their workforce development activities and measure progress.
• Connect workforce development projects to


gating climate change.  The Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology
Program (ARFVTP) was established with Assembly Bill (AB) 118 ( Núñez) in 2007, as amended by
AB 109 ( Núñez) in 2008.  It is managed by the California Energy Commissi


 is spread across the fuel -type categories and market
segments.  Roughly one- quarter of funds has  been spent on RD&D of alternative fuels and
vehicles ($14 6 million of $586 million) as opposed to production, distribution, and deployment
(PD&D)


the program  and came up with
questions to be addressed in th e evaluation . We then designed and implemented an evaluation,
meas urement, and verification  plan.
1.2.1 Conceptual Framework for Evaluation
The evaluation of the ARFVTP plan was or


a particular fuel or
vehicle technology.  For example, a funded project might se ek to reduce the carbon intensity (CI)
of a fuel resulting from a biodiesel production process.  Such an outcome is included in step 4
and can have an impact on the r


t to the market viability of alternative fuels and vehicles vary considerably by fuel type, as do the type and magnitude of awards.  We break down the evaluation into the
fuel categories shown in Table 1.3.  Within each fuel -type category, attentio


es are typically stated as task 1  of the scope of work for the award.  The
technical objectives are detailed in the subsequent tasks of the scope of work.  7 For each technical objective, the RAND team reviewed the  proposal, statement of work, cri


 survey respondents and to reduce the occurrence of
respondents overstating their  projects’ success.  We present results both for the initial RAND
assessment based on the review of project doc uments and for the assessment as corrected by
the sur


hese reviews, we collected data to determine whether the awardee had made reasonable progress toward achieving the project technical objectives and to assess how much the project
had accelerated the development and deployment of alternative fuels an


bout Processes for Administering the Program
In addition to the interviews conducted for the in -depth project reviews, 11 CEC staff were
interviewed about  CEC processes for developing the investment plans , soliciting  applications,
and making