or the area under it for the officer; another participant noted there are urban applications for this technology as well. Additional communications may be needed due to congestion, etc.
Security. How security will work in the new network environment


enforcement community to manage it—for example, every person driving by a crash sending a picture to the PSAP. Needs in response covered both technical R&D and development and training of new information-centric roles.
For the field, there was a top-


voices of bystanders (currently a manual process). The time needed to process video for FOIA requests is substantial, even prohibitive. A participant noted that it is estimated that one agency (Dallas) needs 17 labor hours to release a short clip req


eeds, providing a S&T roadmap for broadband-related development for law enforcement.
Developing the core architecture for the future hybrid network. The central recommendation is to develop a core set of operational concepts and architectures that wi


even different waveforms (e.g., short-distance 802.11x vs. 4G vs. 5G), much of the architectural effort needs to address how such hopping will work.
The next core attribute of the future network is security. Much of the architectural efforts will nee


.
As noted in the table of needs, specific assessments called for include antennas (improving range, effective throughput, and human factors/shape); devices capable of service-hopping, including picking which available service would provide best perf


nt networks
Need to examine the use of UASs as relays
Need to assess smart software agents for the field
Need to assess smart software agents for the operations center
Need to redact video feeds automatically
Need to develop emerging operations cente


se, Vanu Inc.
Milind Buddhikot, Alcatel-Lucent Bell Labs
Jack Burbank, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory Jeremy Carter, Indiana University—Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) Stanley Causey, Department of Justice, Drug Enforcemen


istration-q-page
———, “700 MHz Public Safety Spectrum,” 2016. As of August 9, 2016: https://www.fcc.gov/general/700-mhz-public-safety-spectrum-0
First Responder Network Authority, “FirstNet Industry Day,” presen- tation to the FirstNet Industry Day,


ance Drone Can Stay Aloft Forever,” Digital Trends, November 10, 2015. As of November 24, 2015: http://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/ eyes-in-air-perpetual-flight-surveillance-drone-never-lands/
Perkins, Charles E., Ad Hoc Networking, Addison-Wesle


ructure protection and homeland security, transportation and energy policy, and environmental and natural resource policy.
Questions or comments about this report should be sent to the project leader, John S. Hollywood (John_Hollywood@rand.org). For


’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark.
 CORPORATION
RR-1462-NIJ


 Scenario Development
for the 2015 Quadrennial
Energy Review
Assessing Stresses, Opportunities, and Resilience in the Transmission, Storage, and Distribution Systems for Oil, and Refined-Oil Products, Electricity, and Natural Gas
Keith Crane, Debra K


for examining future opportunities, vulnerabilities, and risks for the next 15 years to the U.S. energy transmission, storage, and distribution (TS&D) systems under a range of uncertain factors. This work is in support of the 2015 Quadrennial Energy


 the project leader, Nicholas Burger (Nicholas_Burger@rand.org). For more information about RAND Infrastructure Resilience and Environmental Policy, see www.rand.org/jie/irep or contact the director at irep@rand.org.
Contents
 Preface................


R, we conducted all analyses of scenarios with models that others developed. In Appendix A, we provide details on the models.
We assume that the Reference scenario for each of the TS&D systems was the Refer- ence case from the 2014 Annual Energy Outl


nt or a short-term refinery closure from a hurricane. We did not draw on system models to estimate performance in response to short-duration shocks, but we do discuss the implications of these shocks in qualitative terms in the context of resilience


f disruptive events. Even in the event of substantial damage to the system, such as an earthquake in southern Cali- fornia or terrorist attack that would severely damage refineries and import terminals in that region, supplies would flow relatively s


ment of nuclear plants.
Key Findings
• The ReEDS model represents the bulk and feeder transmission system and thus has some limitations on its ability to estimate whole-system transmission needs. However, in approximate terms, the United States by 20


hours, although some areas do experience out- ages of one or more days; at the national scale, the effects tend to be small. Utilities and public service commissions balance the costs of measures to reduce outages against the expected value of reduct


4 Tcf. To collect, transport, and distribute this increased natural gas production, the U.S. TS&D system will have to be expanded.
The extent of pipeline capacity expansion will depend on the amount of gas produced, its location, and the locations wh


ail, causing substantial congestion on rail systems in those regions. To reduce this congestion, additional pipelines will be needed to move oil out of these basins, connecting them more fully to the midcontinent system. Under a scenario of continued


nd prepar- ing the document.
xvii
Abbreviations
 AEO2014 2014 Annual Energy Outlook AFV alternative-fuel vehicle
Bcfd billions of cubic feet per day CNG compressed natural gas
CO2 carbon dioxide
CSP concentrating solar power
DPV distributed photovolt


d that revealed long-term vulnerabilities and opportunities within each TS&D system through 2030 by drawing on several existing simulation models of the U.S. energy system. Finally, we consider, in qualitative terms, the resilience of TS&D systems un


lities
2. Case generation
       1 RAND Corporation, undated (b), lists numerous references that describe RDM in more detail. See also Lempert, Popper, and Bankes, 2003.
2 Scenario-discovery processes identify clusters of cases in the n-dimensional u


system models to identify key vulnerabilities and opportunities associated with each system as reflected in the perfor- mance metrics. The base case for each of the TS&D systems was the Reference case from the 2014 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO2014) (U


actors to identify key vulnerabili- ties and opportunities, selecting combinations by hand (versus a machine-generated scenario- discovery algorithm) based on the magnitude of effects associated with the particular uncer- tain factors. Because we had


5
1990 2000 2010
Year
2020 2030
6 Scenario Development for the 2015 Quadrennial Energy Review
line, as has reductions in per capita vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) stemming from the aging population and less interest in driving by teenagers and people i


fined on the Gulf Coast was imported; 49 percent of these imports were heavy sour, and another 38 percent medium or light sour. Because of the ban on exports of crude oil, producers of light crude have had to offer their product at a discount to the


ducts 7
  Washington
Oregon
Montana
Wyoming
Colorado
New Mexico
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska Kansas
PADD 1A: New England
Maine
   PADD 1B:
Central Vermont
  PADD 5: West Coast, Alaska, and Hawaii
California
G
Alaska
Idaho
Utah
Arizona
Hawaii
Mi


ws:
• crude-oil production: Great uncertainty exists regarding the extent and longevity of the current shale-oil boom. The Reference case suggests that production will peak before 2020 and fall back below 2014 levels by 2030. By contrast, the AEO2014


umption case (RAND, described below).
The Reference production, Reference consumption, and High Resource cases are from AEO2014, where they are well documented. The trajectories of output under these two cases are shown in Figure 2.1. However, we con


g between PADDs 2 and 3. The distribution of consumption by PADD in 2030 is shown in Figure 2.4 for both the Reference case and the RAND Low Consumption case. By 2030, overall consumption in the RAND Low Consump- tion case is 20 percent lower than in


Canadian crude could be shut in prior to 2030.
Figure 2.5
Major Crude Rail Routes from Petroleum Administration for Defense District 2 West to the East Coast, Gulf Coast, and West Coast
 PADD 5
PADD 4
PADD 3
PADD 2
PADD 1
 1 100 500 1,200
Thousand ba


, Canadian heavy-oil production would have to grow steadily and be available to U.S. refiners. However, when U.S. production exceeds 12 MMb/d, EPSA finds, the U.S. market becomes so saturated with light crude oil and condensates that refiners prefer


t in scenario 2.
In scenario 5, using the RAND Low Consumption case, demand drops by 20 percent from current levels, reaching about 14.4 MMb/d in 2030. Were such a scenario to play out, the movement of refined-oil products would have to shift to comp


ee times the cost of shipping by pipeline. These numbers are consistent with those of other analysts, who estimate that the cost of shipping by rail is $5 to $10 per barrel more than by pipeline (Davies, 2013; Frittelli et al., 2014).
Pipelines are e


According to IHS, projected investment by railroad to transport crude oil, natural gas liquids, and liquid petroleum gas between 2014 and 2025 would run $9.3 billion for crude oil and $6.7 billion to $7.5 billion for natural gas liquids and liquid pe


e disruptions tend to be transient. In recent periods, the U.S. economy has become more resilient in the face of global oil price shocks than it was during the time of the 1973 oil embargo because Americans use gasoline and diesel more efficiently. T


sel slowed relief and repair efforts (Center on Global Energy Policy, 2014; City of New York, 2013, pp. 136–142).
During Sandy, the Jones Act (formally, the Merchant Marine Act of 1920, Pub. L. 66-261) was waived, which facilitated barge delivery of


and other refined products consumed west of the Rockies, would be off-line until the refineries could be repaired or, in the worst case, rebuilt (Ortiz, Samaras, and Molina-Perez, 2013). Replacing this supply would present major challenges, particul


y here to stay because of the flexibility that rail provides.
• Competing analyses of GHG emissions associated with rail versus pipeline come up with different results.
• Spillage is generally lower when transporting oil by rail than by pipeline, but


ctric power demand grows could put stress on the TS&D system in some places where the location of generating capacity will have shifted.
In a future in which the U.S. government seeks to substantially reduce emissions of GHGs, on the order of 40 perc


3.1 and described in the following section. We further note that the selection of these scenarios does not imply their likelihood but rather reflects our informed judgment about the likely factors that could lead to higher-stress cases over the next


ses through 2050 as well.
 ity of renewable energy resources within each region. These regions are then aggregated into balancing areas, areas that are or might be connected by transmission lines to balance demand with available supplies of renewable


how NEMS handles them. ReEDS represents wind and solar resources with more granularity than NEMS does, which changes how much and where things get deployed. ReEDS represents transmission and transmission constraints, which changes where and how much


ices, given in 2010 dollars per million British thermal units
Nuclear retirements
Wind costs, given in dollars per kilowatt
Based on
AEO2014 Reference case; hydro power capital costs are from Hall et al., 2003
AEO2014 Reference case; alternatives fro


velopment for the 2015 Quadrennial Energy Review
Low Electricity Demand Scenario
The QER’s Low Electricity Demand scenario departs from the base case in its assumption of lower demand in 2030 and 2050 than in 2010. Overall, the assumptions in this sc


percent below 2005 levels to be achieved by 2030. For the other scenarios, we assume that current policy with respect to GHG emissions remains in place. For those cases with GHG caps, we used a reduced-demand profile to mimic the price-responsivenes


on system (in 2010, 82.2 million MW-miles out of a total system of 200 million MW-miles (U.S. Department of Energy, 2015c, Chapter 3, p. 52). The figures and percentages cited in this section are based on the 82.2 million MW-miles figure with some co


n costs, this figure suggests total annual expenditures on transmission might range between $3 billion and $7 billion annually.13 In 2010, the United States installed approx- imately $10 billion of new capacity, with annual costs ranging from $3 bill


at Lakes, Southeast, Central, and Texas. For four out of those six regions (all but the Southeast and Cen- tral), the primary driver of the transmission expansion is the 40-percent cap on GHG emis- sions, the corresponding decline in electricity gene


shows relatively modest changes in intraregional capacity, suggesting futures in which renew- able costs fall and capacity increases are unlikely to necessitate substantially more construction of new transmission than has taken place in recent years.


s Without Substantial Cost Increases
The ReEDS model analyses suggest that a future U.S. electricity system could see widely dif- ferent levels of GHG emissions depending on what transpires with technology, energy prices, and policies. Most scenarios


Figure C.5 in Appendix C) time horizons, the high- est average price is found in the Greenhouse-Gas Emission Cap + Nuclear Retirement + High Natural Gas Prices scenario. In 2030, the highest electricity price is $0.108 per kilowatt-hour (6 percent hi


Reduced Demand Low Greenhouse-Gas Emission High Renewable-Energy Penetration Retirements + High Natural Gas Prices Greenhouse-Gas Emission Cap + High Nuclear Energy Penetration + Reduced Demand Greenhouse-Gas Emission Cap + High Renewable-
Scenario
S


sources (i.e., wind and solar) and even in the case when storage costs were low. Only scenarios that include GHG caps lead to substantial additional storage capacity. The Greenhouse-Gas Emission Cap + High Nuclear Retirements + High Natural Gas Price


se-Gas Emission Cap + High Nuclear Energy Penetration + Reduced Demand Greenhouse-Gas Emission Cap + High Renewable-
       Storage capacity, in gigawatts
SOURCE: ReEDS model runs.
RAND RR1286-3.14
Scenario
                Government plays an importa


whether a targeted cyberattack on the entire U.S. grid could lead to the same outcome. In its after- action report, NERC noted the continued need to improve and increase information-sharing and coordination, consider scenarios of simultaneous attack


Green- house-Gas Emission Cap + High Renewable-Energy Penetration + Reduced Demand scenario, and the lowest expansion occurs in the High Renewable-Energy Penetra- tion + Reduced Demand scenario. Even with lower demand than in the base case, the GHG


  2007
      2009
      2011
      2013
43
Year
44 Scenario Development for the 2015 Quadrennial Energy Review
used, large-scale transmission pipelines or conversion of existing pipelines (i.e., to reverse flow direction) could be required as well.
K


n 2030, ReEDS assumes 76 GW of retirements and does not reach 104 GW in the base case until 2040.
We assume substantial growth in LNG export capacity in the Gulf region consistent with strong international demand and conducive U.S. policy. In compari


t approximately $1.8 million per mile to construct (Ortiz, Samaras, and Molina-Perez, 2013, p. 14) or $33.5 billion in 2010 dollars. Under the High U.S. Demand scenario, reversing flows of existing pipelines would result in fewer miles of new pipelin


umes of oil are being transported by rail, causing substantial congestion on rail systems, especially in the Upper Midwest. To reduce this congestion, additional pipelines will be needed to move oil out of these basins, connecting them more fully to


ssions balance the costs of measures to reduce outages against the expected value of reductions in outages.
Long-duration outages over large geographic areas are much less frequent than local out- ages, but, when they do occur, they have serious impa


well-level production data, rig activity, type curves,
and gallons per 1,000 cubic feet–based NGL production breakouts to calculate internal rate of return and breakeven costs for wells across the United States. Granular assessment of initial product


. The World Gas Model subdivides the world into major regions connected by actual and proposed marine shipping routes and pipelines. Competition with oil and
coal is modeled in each consuming region, producing results that indicate what infrastructur


rail and shipping to LNG. The working life of loco- motives and ships is much longer than road vehicles, so this would be accomplished primarily by converting or choosing to replace existing stock. As with buses, rail and shipping account for a smal


he 2015 Quadrennial Energy Review
Figure C.5
Comparison of Average Electricity Prices Across All Scenarios, 2050
0.120 0.115 0.110 0.105 0.100 0.095 0.090
    Price, in dollars per kilowatt-hour
                  RAND RR1286-C.5
Base case
Low Demand


Chang, Judy, Johannes Pfeifenberg, and Michael Hagerty, Trends and Benefits of Transmission Investments: Identifying and Analyzing Value, presentation to Canadian Electricity Association Transmission Council, Ottawa, Canada, September 26, 2013. As of


1, 2014: http://www.enbridge.com/~/media/www/Site%20Documents/Delivering%20Energy/Projects/Sandpiper/ ENB2013-Sandpiper-L19.pdf
EPA—See U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Farber-DeAnda, Mindi, Biofuels and Emerging Technologies Team, Office of Pet


tal Laboratory, June 2003. As of May 28, 2015:
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/water/pdfs/doewater-00662.pdf
Hamilton, James D., Historical Oil Shocks, Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 16790, February 2011. As of Sept


ml
Montalbano, Ben, Summary of Findings and Assumptions for QER Modeling, Washington, D.C.: Energy Policy Research Foundation, September 18, 2014.
Narayanan, Anu, and M. Granger Morgan, “Sustaining Critical Social Services During Extended Regional Po


Water Makeup of Spent Fuel Pools,” Federal Register, Vol. 77, No. 243, December 18, 2012, pp. 74788–74798. As of February 19, 2015:
http://w w w.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2012-12-18/html/2012-30452.htm
Ortiz, David S., Constantine Samaras, and Edmundo Mol


, 2015:
http://w w w.eenews.net/stories/1060008119
Steffy, Loren, “Waiting on a (Crude) Train: The Cost of Exports?” Forbes, May 15, 2014. As of September 22, 2015:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/lorensteffy/2014/05/15/waiting-on-a-crude-train-the-cost-


nenergy/detail.cfm?id=4890
———, New York/New Jersey Intra Harbor Petroleum Supplies Following Hurricane Sandy: Summary of Impacts Through November 13, 2012, Washington, D.C., November 21, 2012. As of September 22, 2015: http://www.eia.gov/special/dis


also considered the resilience that these systems have to short-term shocks and disruptions. This analysis was requested to support the 2015 Quadrennial Energy Review (QER). The QER, which, in its first volume, focuses on energy TS&D systems, is a fe


 CORPORATION
Benefits and Earnings Losses for Permanently Disabled Workers in California
Trends Through the Great Recession and Effects of Recent Reforms
 Michael Dworsky, Seth A. Seabury, Frank W. Neuhauser, Ujwal Kharel, Roald Euller
For more infor


ty ratings under the schedule.”
This study, which was sponsored by CHSWC in order to meet the statutory requirement, is intended to describe trends in the economic consequences of permanently disabling injuries in the period (2005–2012) between imple


ent to the project leader, Michael Dworsky, an associate economist at RAND (mdworsky@rand.org). For more information about the RAND Institute for Civil Justice, see www.rand.org/icj or contact the director at icjdirector@rand.org.
Contents
 Preface .


. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
CHAPTER FIVE
Wage Replacement and Benefit Adequacy Under S.B. 899 and S.B. 863 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Ratings Data from the Disability Evaluation Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


ge Replacement Rates for Permanently Disabled Workers . . . . . .xxii
S.5. Relationship Between Proportional Earnings Loss and Simulated Final Ratings
Under S.B. 863 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
5.1. Average Final Ratings by Quarter of Injury and Rating Type, DEU Ratings . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
5.2. Weekly Maximum Wage Under S.B. 863 Relative to Inflation
and Wage Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


and Return to Work over First Three
Post-Injury Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xviii
S.2. Earnings, Employment, and Return to Wor


ty of WCIS Earnings Loss Estimates to Threshold for
Earnings Outliers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .146
B.11. Firm Size Distribution of


 to present those findings.
The benefit increases enacted under S.B. 863 may be viewed in part as a policy response to reductions in impairment ratings and benefits that followed implementation of a major reform package enacted in 2004 as S.B. 899. T


l to affect different groups very differently and had the potential to interact in complex ways, the ultimate influence of S.B. 863 on the gener- osity and fairness of benefits is impossible to predict without detailed analysis.
This report follows p


 how these reforms would have changed the ade- quacy of benefits for workers injured over the period leading up to the law’s enactment. Finally,
because S.B. 863 changed benefits in part by modifying the disability rating system, we also evaluate the


effect on overall wage replacement rates, the fact that the benefit was targeted to the lowest-earning and most at-risk workers—those who do not return to work after an injury—led to an overall increase in the progressivity of benefits. However, more


tential earnings by matching injured workers to uninjured “control” workers who worked at the same firm and had very similar earnings prior to the injury. The earnings of these control workers in the time period following the injury serve as a natura


arnings losses caused by the injury.
The first row of Table S.1 reports relative earnings at one, two, and three years post-injury for the average permanently disabled worker in WCIS with an injury date between 2005 and 2012. Relative earnings in the


faster than injured worker employment rather than by an increase in employment among injured workers who remained out of work after two years.
A third outcome measure that we examine is employment at the at-injury employer, defined by receipt of any


nds, we aggregated injured workers into three cohorts based on the date of injury: pre-recession (2005–2007), recession (2008–2009), and post-recession (2010–2012). Relative outcomes for these three cohorts of workers are reported in Table S.2 at tim


revalence in the PPD population changes with economic conditions. Such factors include pre-injury wages, age at injury, and the duration of temporary disability.
Even though compositional changes in the PPD population played an important role in earn


2 injury years, the average statutory benefits (inflated to constant 2014 dollars) for a case with representation
Figure S.3
Statutory Benefits by Rating Type and Injury Date, Constant-Maturity DEU Ratings
Statutory benefits, S.B. 899 (2014$)
30,000


nts estimated trends in statutory wage replacement rates under S.B. 899 and S.B. 863. The lowest (red) line shows the average after-tax replacement rates by injury quar- ter under S.B. 899. While the average rating and average benefits were increasin


wage replacement rates by 21.4 percentage points, from 58.8 percent to 80.2 percent. Because earnings losses were so much greater after the recession than before the recession, however, we estimate that the after-tax wage replacement rate would have


ause S.B. 863 does not modify the AMA Guides’ underlying rating process, it is not surprising that changes in vertical equity are limited.
We may also expect S.B. 863 to affect horizontal equity to the extent that increases in final ratings and benef


l equity of the rating and benefit system.
Summary xxv
    Hand or finger Knee
Carpal tunnel syndrome
Low back pain Digestive system Shoulder Psychiatric
          0 20 40 60 80 100
After-tax wage replacement rate (%)
xxvi Benefits and Earnings Losse


ng experience the same after-tax proportional earnings losses, then the statutory wage replacement rate will be higher for the worker with the lower pre-injury wage. Because increases in the weekly maximum wage affect only the benefits of workers wit


IS and transfer it securely to RAND, and Cheryl Swope and Debra Lofing of the Employment Devel- opment Department were always responsive and helpful in helping us extract wage data from EDD. Glenn Shor and John Gordon patiently addressed many questio


ve imposed a considerable burden on disabled work- ers. These concerns may have been colored by evidence that PPD benefits in earlier periods had been of questionable adequacy (Peterson et al., 1998).
In response to these controversies, California en


pproach in this case. However, in our analysis, we must deal with the fact that in 2008 the United States experienced the biggest economic slowdown since the Great Depression. The so- called Great Recession had a significant and lasting negative impa


ations. The appendixes contain information on methods and supplemental results.
Introduction 3
CHAPTER TWO
Policy Background
This chapter provides some general background on the goals of workers’ compensation poli- cies and defines some criteria that


of benefits is typically measured through the replacement rate of lost income. For temporary disability benefits, the standard for adequacy is generally held to be a replace- ment rate of two-thirds of lost pre-tax income or 80 percent of after-tax


 the actual cost of the benefits as well as the cost of administering and delivering them. The administrative costs of workers’ compensation
2 Berkowitz and Burton, Jr. (1987) distinguished delivery system efficiency (i.e., administrative efficiency)


shing to self-insure must obtain certification from the DIR, and to do so they must be able to demonstrate sufficient financial resources. Another option for employers that are too small to meet the self-insured requirements is to combine efforts wit


to benefit levels over the years, including S.B. 863.
In California, the weekly benefit cap for TTD benefits was fixed at $490 per week from 1996 to 2002, when it was raised in several steps for injuries occurring on or after January 1, 2004, by A.B.


his new requirement:
A physician shall make an apportionment determination by finding what approximate per- centage of the permanent disability was caused by the direct result of injury arising out of and occurring in the course of employment and wha


ous incentives to bring injured work- ers back to work and better targeting of benefits, implementation problems limited its effec- tiveness. One of the chief limitations had to do with the timing. In order to be eligible for the bump down, an employ


sial types of add-on impairments (e.g., sexual dysfunction, psychological disorders, and sleep disorders), and various adjustments to administrative aspects of the system (such as the timing of PD advances). The reform also created a return to work p


gered in part by the financial crisis, as economies that suffer recessions triggered by financial crises histori- cally take five to ten years after the financial crisis to reach the pre-recession level of output
Figure 2.1
2005–2014 Unemployment Rat


. The dashed line represents the “potential” earnings a worker would have in the absence of an injury. Potential earnings increase over time, representing the increased earnings associated with increasing experience in the labor market or increasing


n 2001. Information at the individual claim level is transferred from claims administrators to DIR using the Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) formats devel- oped by the International Association of Industrial Accident Boards and Commissions. In 2001


n the WCIS as a noisy measure of impairment severity but never take it at face value to calculate statutory benefits or identify PPD beneficiaries.
Furthermore, like most administrative systems, data elements that are not critical to admin- istration


set the value of the SJDB to a constant $6,000 regardless of disability ratings for injuries in 2013 or later years, so the permanent disability rating no longer afects access to vocational rehabilitation (Labor Code Sec. 4658.7). Earnings loss estim


 construct an analytic dataset capturing each step in the disability rating process.
Each impairment evaluated by the evaluating physician is identified by an impairment number, which is listed in the PDRS and corresponds to the chapter and section i


al situations that required decisions on how to determine the final disability rating.
• A doctor can submit an updated evaluation on a claim where the impairment has evolved. In this case we chose the latest report, chronologically.
• A second repor


xamine trends for recently injured workers using the DEU. The majority of the lag between injury and DEU evaluation is likely driven by the duration to maximum medical improvement (and is inherent in the disability process, since permanent impairment


data in the WCIS, but the DEU provides sufficient detail to make these calculations fairly straightforward. We treat the DEU as our primary source on ratings and statutory benefits, and we work with the DEU exclusively in our analysis of the equity e


ll the wages for an individual by quarter and over time, we applied the Soundex phonetic filing system to the first and last name and applied a series of tests for the consistency of names across earnings records and over time. In order to qualify fo


prior to the quarter of injury, where tenure is measured using three levels: less than or equal to one year on the job, one to two years, or more than two years. If more than five comparison workers met the matching criteria, we selected the five wo


mployer
 Percentage Matching at Least 1 Control
WCIS DEU
23.2 19.3 62.0 54.1 81.6 73.3 92.7 86.1 97.4 92.0 98.8 94.3 99.4 94.8 88.9 78.1
NOTES: The table reports the fraction of workers with at
control by employer size. The denominator used to calcul


njury. A much larger decline is apparent beginning immediately after the quarter of injury. By this time, all injured workers in our sample have already become disabled, but many have already returned to work.
Following the sharp drop in the first po


n of injured and control worker wages over the period prior to the match window (eight to five quarters relative to the quarter of injury) is more informative because we did not use any information about wages in this earlier period to define the con


-injury quarter. This pattern is similar to findings in previous RAND wage loss studies of injured workers, as well as research suggesting that decreased employment is the predominant channel through which poor health reduces labor earnings, rather t


quarters after the injury.
RAND RR1299-3.5
Employment at the at-injury firm, in contrast, continues to decline relative to control workers after the second post-injury year. Given the difering patterns of relative overall employment, relative at-inju


th and eighth post-injury quarters are indicated by vertical lines on Figure 3.4. The second row of Table 3.2, which reports relative employment for the average injured worker in the WCIS, indicates that injured workers are 73 percent as likely as co


ions have been highlighted by other researchers (Butler, Johnson, and Baldwin, 1995; Boden and Galizzi, 2003).
The fact that relative employment recovers slightly over time suggests that at least some injured workers who separate from the at-injury e


o work at the at-injury employer) are reasonably predictive of longer- term earnings losses.
To evaluate the potential for bias due to our focus on a short follow-up period, we exam- ined long-term earnings profiles for workers injured in 2008 or ear


tion of S.B. 899 (at the start of 2005) and implementation of S.B. 863 (at the end of 2012). Measurement of trends in labor market outcomes prior to S.B. 863 is important for several reasons. First, changes in the economic impact of injury can induce


is weighted equally, we calculate average post-injury control worker outcomes for all injured workers in each quarter of injury. We then estimate aggregate earnings loss as the ratio of these two averages in each quarter of injury. Figure 4.1 plots a


elative earnings of permanently disabled workers beginning with those workers injured in 2008, which coincides closely with the timing of the Great Recession. Relative earnings appear to stabilize and recover slightly in 2009, but remain substantiall


al NBER dates of Great Recession shaded gray.
RAND RR1299-4.3
Figure 4.4
Relative Post-Injury Employment, At-Injury Employer by Quarter of Injury
    NOTES: Relative at-injury employment defined as ratio of injured worker employment at the at-injury


industries experienced worse post- injury outcomes during the recession, and that recovery to pre-recession levels of post-injury earnings has been incomplete or nonexistent in most industries. This is true of heavily cycli- cal industries such as co


 are also conceivable:
• The composition of the injured worker population may have changed on observable dimensions, including demographics, wages, industry mix, or disability duration.
• The composition of the injured worker population may have chan


two years or higher at the time of injury. Workers injured during and after the recession have higher pre-injury job tenure: the fraction with two years or more of tenure at the at-injury firm increases from 58 percent in 2005–2007 to 60 percent in 2


-injury employers over the period 2005–2012. The growth rate of employment over the year preceding an injury fell from 4.0 percent per year in 2005–2007 to slightly negative (–0.9 percent) in 2008–2009 before rebounding to 2.8 percent in 2010–2012. T


c human capi- tal, the turnover rate is likely to contain additional information about how firm-specific human capital is valued by the employer and thus may predict differences in earnings losses among workers with the same job tenure at different e


ngs losses.
Effect of Worker, Employer, and Injury Characteristics on Post-Injury Earnings
How did these changes in the composition of the injured worker population affect injured worker outcomes? To evaluate the contribution of these compositional c


ed worker outcomes. For instance, control workers at a firm where employment falls by more
12 See Appendix Tables B.5–B.7 for parameter estimates.
13 Adjusted relative earnings in Figures 4.6–4.7 are constructed using recycled predictions from separa


nnual earnings ($1,000)
 Figure 4.7
Case-Mix-Adjusted Relative Post-Injury Earnings by Age at Injury
80
Relative earnings, two years post-injury (%)
60
50
  70
Outcomes for Disabled Workers Through the Great Recession 47
 20 30 40 50 60 70
Age at inj


. Earnings losses defined as difference between average yearly earnings for injured workers. Proportional earnings losses defined as earnings losses divided by average yearly earnings for control workers.
RAND RR1299-4.8
Relationship Between Trends a


rter in 2004. Rescaling the employment/population ratio in this way is necessary to allow comparisons across different-sized industries. As before, we include fixed effects for the sectors so that permanent differences in outcomes across industries d


jury severity, measured here as temporary disability duration, explains roughly half of the explained variation in earnings losses, and the body part of injury is the second most important factor in the second year. Since these are our best proxies f


ignificant at the 0.1-percent level.
by case characteristics, the majority is driven by differences in injury severity, economic status, age, and job characteristics. Even though the Great Recession was associated with dra- matic shifts in average wa


ary division of injury dates into injuries occurring during and after the Great Recession (2008–2012) and injuries occurring before the Great Recession (2005–2007).19
The results in Table 4.6 quantify the contribution of compositional changes to the


ble B.10 for detailed estimates.
 Outcomes for Disabled Workers Through the Great Recession 53
contributed to lower pre-injury earnings (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2015). However, analysis of data reporting hours worked together with work injury occ


fects of these reforms on wage replacement. In addition to analyzing benefit adequacy, we document the spread of alternative rating procedures allowed under a series of WCAB rulings beginning in 2009 and estimate the potential influence of these alte


ses rated at the DEU. The first column (labeled “All Available Ratings”) reports averages for ratings performed at the DEU by May 2015 of cases with injury dates between 2005 and 2012 and complete data on final ratings and rating type. The remaining


lved in using a constant maturity sample. Restricting attention to a constantmaturity sample that allows measurement of trends through the end of 2012 excludes over onethird of the ratings performed at the DEU on injuries between 2005 and 2012. Th


 for all available injuries occurring from 2005 to 2012 is over two years (817 days).
If the duration between an injury and a case’s first rating at the DEU were random, restriction to a constantmaturity sample of cases would not limit our ability t


e might expect ratings to trend upward over time as knowledge about the rating system diffuses among doctors and attorneys, even if factors explicitly accounted for in the rating process are held constant.
Figure 5.1 presents average trends in final


 $435. We see that the real value of the maximum PPD benefit for workers with earnings above the weekly maximum declined by 12 percent in real terms between 2006 and 2012.
Figure 5.2 also illustrates the distinction between price inflation and wage i


average ben efits for a case with representation rated at the DEU within 851 days of injury increased from $22,990 to $30,135, a cumulative 31percent increase over seven years. However, benefits for cases without representation were essentially fl


several years after the date of injury for the most severe cases to reach the DEU. However, it is necessary to use the DEU to simulate the effect of S.B. 863 on final ratings and statutory
4 We view this estimate as somewhat tentative because the dec


, not the injury date. Alternative ratings quickly became important in represented cases. Applicant and defense lawyers frequently submitted detailed letters to evaluating physicians arguing for and against broadening the rating criteria in individua


ially stepped completely outside the AMA Guides. These ratings are not thought to be frequent, in part because they require extensive expert testimony. And these ratings are almost never visible in the DEU data. In addition, the influence of the Ogil


arnings. Alternatively stated, benefits are adequate if the replacement rate—the PPD benefits divided by the earnings losses experienced by injured workers—is at least 66 2/3 percent. The replacement rate of 66 2/3 percent (or twothirds) of lost wag


 time, and are likely to understate lifetime earnings losses for many workers because earnings losses may persist well beyond five years. This is particularly true for the most severe injuries.
Anticipated Effects of S.B. 863 on Benefit Adequacy
S.B.


or Permanently Disabled Workers in California
To address these questions, we analyze three provisions (changes to the minimum and maximum benefits, changes to the FEC, and elimination of specific addon impairments) of S.B. 863 separately by simulati


e as of extraction of WCIS data in September 2014. Averaged over the entire 2005–2012 time period, paid benefits are just 52 percent of statutory benefits. This low
9 LC 4660 (a) was changed, removing the reference to future earning capacity that tri


eplace ment rates fell during the Great Recession and then declined further during the postrecession period, from 64.3 percent for injuries occurring in 2005–2007 to 57.1 percent for injuries occurring in 2008–2009 and to 52.4 percent for injuries


ions estimated using matched WCIS-DEU sample. See Appendix C for details. Dashed horizontal line indicates 80-percent target wage replacement rate.
RAND RR1299-5.5
Wage Replacement and Benefit Adequacy Under S.B. 899 and S.B. 863 69
lated using S.B.


ts. Alternative methods lead to a lower baseline (2005–2007) level of statutory aftertax wage replacement under S.B. 899. The constantmaturity DEU sample, which uses data on earnings losses and benefits for the same individuals, yields esti mated


estimates of the effect of Almaraz/Guzman using data from all DEU ratings under the AMA Guides performed between January 1 and May 13, 2016. This effort required key assistance from the DWC and especially the DEU to correctly identify how these ratin


0% 47
   72 Benefits and Earnings Losses for Permanently Disabled Workers in California
Table 5.6
Estimated Effect of Almaraz-Type Ratings on PD Indemnity (cases with alternative ratings only, DEU ratings data, 2005–2015)
    AMA Guides Ratings Almar


r the typical worker. An alternative approach that is less likely to capture losses due to temporary total disability is to calculate earnings losses over the second through fifth post injury years and scale up the result by 25 percent to approximat


 on disability ratings conducted under S.B. 899 and under S.B. 863 to address the following questions:
• WhatinfluenceswouldweexpectS.B.863tohaveontheequityofPDratingsandbenefits?
• Has S.B. 863 affected the initial ratings performed under the new ra


ll have a more limited effect on adequacy because it is fixed at a fairly modest amount independently of the worker’s earnings, but this design feature should make it more valuable to lower-wage workers, while the fact that the return to work benefit


Without Life Pension
Including Life Pension**
Average Number of Rated Impairments Number of Rated Impairments (%)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
83,350 2,496 44 1 12.9 35.0
Days Average
0.09 0.04 81.68 41.95 13.88 24.00
2.89 13.26 1.02 8.09 0.24 5.00 0.21 7.93
650 11


ngs above 45. Table 6.2 presents further detail on the composition of the DEU caseload by body system and presence of add-on impairments. For reporting purposes and for the analysis of horizontal equity presented later in this chapter, we classify ca


e infrequent, sleep and psychiatric add-ons had been increasing steadily over the 2005–2012 period. The pain add-on, in contrast, appears on 16.4 percent of all cases. The second through fourth columns show that the eliminated add- ons were used almo


t there was a statistically signifi- cant increase of 7.8 percentage points in the share of Consult ratings following implementa- tion of S.B. 863, since we have seen that Consult ratings tend to be more severe cases and have
Effects of S.B. 863 on D


ation of our sample at such a low point of the maturity distribution. As depicted in Figure 6.1, less than a quarter of cases from a typi- cal injury cohort reach the DEU within 486 days of injury. As depicted in Figure 6.2 and
2 We cannot offer a de


, we abstract from time trends and pool together all ratings performed to date under S.B. 899. Our analysis of equity should therefore be interpreted as capturing outcomes for an average injury within a group being measured occurring between 2005 and


0 20 40 60
Final rating before apportionment
NOTES: 2005–2012 DEU cases grouped by final rating. Ratings at or above 70-percent WPI excluded for legibility. Figure depicts quadratic line of best fit. Cases with zero ratings before apportionment excl


 simulated using data on ratings performed under the S.B. 899 rating system. Ratings below 70 omitted to preserve legibility.
RAND RR1299-6.3
tional earnings losses, which reflects favorably on the vertical equity of the PD rating system under S.B. 8


adratic curve of best fit is included to highlight the nonlinear relationship between earnings losses and benefits under S.B. 899. As a benchmark, the dashed line through the origin indicates the level of benefits corresponding to an 80-percent after


nsions of the rating and benefit process. The graphical evidence in Figure 6.5 indicates that S.B. 863 will induce a different relationship between earnings losses and benefits than the relationship that prevailed under S.B. 899. To provide a clearer


. 899 rating schedule for the lowest-rated cases. As a percentage of the level of statutory benefits that would result from applying the S.B. 863 weekly maximum to S.B. 899 final ratings, the additional increase in benefits due to the changes in the


roportionately high earn- ings losses. As such, we might have expected it to make a larger contribution to the vertical equity of the PD benefit system. To be clear, return to work fund eligibility is strongly related to impairment ratings and earnin


le effect on lower-wage workers. However, S.B. 863 also increased the weekly minimum wage, which will increase benefits for workers with wages below the new minimum. In addition to the weekly minimum and maximum, it is possible that the composition o


rth quartile. The fact that the after-tax wage replacement rate was higher in the second quartile than in the lowest quartile appears to be driven by the differentially severe relative earnings losses among the lowest-quartile workers. Figure 6.7 sho


he return to work benefit, we do not believe that our measure of return to work fund eligibility overstates or understates eligibility in a way that is correlated with the worker’s pre-injury wage.11 The feature of the return to work benefit that lim


portionment
6.0
8.4 7.1
15.2 17.9 11.0 26.0
S.B. 863 Final Rating Before Apportionment
7.6
10.1 8.0
16.7 18.9 11.3 26.1
Relative Earnings, Second Post-Injury Year (%)
95.1
89.2 86.0
72.9 64.8 81.6 46.2
              Figure 6.8 depicts the horizontal


atings Before Apportionment
   Hand or finger (1)
Knee (2)
Carpal tunnel syndrome (4)
Low back pain (5) Digestive system (6) Shoulder (7) Psychiatric (8)
                               Proportional earnings loss (%)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0–4 5–9


pal tunnel syndrome (4)
Low back pain (5) Digestive system (6) Shoulder (7) Psychiatric (8)
                             Proportional earnings loss (%)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0–4 5–9
10–14 15–19
20–24 25–29
30–100
Final rating before apportionment


reater inequities across the impairments. We applied this test to several subpopulations and found that the difference in horizontal equity between S.B. 863 and S.B. 899 is not statistically significant.14
To sum up, the visible differences in horizo


r- ments of the digestive system (which were shown above to have disproportionately high earn- ings losses at low ratings) have above-average replacement rates overall. This apparent contra- diction is readily explained by the fact that these cases h


ent to which earnings of disabled workers recover from the Great Recession.
• Both changes in ratings and increases in the maximum weekly wage led to substantial increases in benefit adequacy, while the return to work benefit had a more modest effect


when economic conditions are poor because they fear employer retribution and don’t want to lose their job. Ultimately, our data do not allow us to identify the cause of compositional changes, but this is an important issue for future research to ide


ntified in this report. Policymakers considering how benefit design could be made more responsive to the business cycle should, however, think carefully about the financing of any such benefits, as policies that would necessitate premium increases wh


are. However, indexation of PPD benefits is not particularly common in the United States. We examined the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Analysis of Workers’ Compensation Laws to learn how other states handle index- ation of the PPD benefit maximum. As of


th the findings of Seabury and Scherer (2013).
 Adjusting Benefits for Age and Occupation
Another way to target PPD benefits more accurately would be to modify the formula to con- vert impairment ratings to disability ratings according to differences


clusions and Policy Recommendations 101
  14 110 C 10
7 $6,090
14 310
F
14 14 $13,412
 102 Benefits and Earnings Losses for Permanently Disabled Workers in California
establish a consistent, objective- and empirically based system for incorporating t


earnings losses. Despite those challenges and because AMA Guides are widely used in other jurisdictions, it would be important and relatively straightforward to evaluate, on claims with both AMA and alternative Almaraz rat- ings, which of the two ty


ering the entire 1995–2014 period. The wage files are very large and these wage pulls took a considerable amount of time. Wages were pulled by merging to the EDD wage data using SSN, dropping workers who matched to no wage records in any quarter. Th


nsistencies, while narrower windows would be more generous. After experimenting with several diferent window sizes, we selected the period plus/ minus eight wage quarters surrounding the quarter of injury. Workers with inconsistent names within this


an distance that corrects for the variance and covariance of each element of the vector used for matching.1 To understand how this distance measure is con- structed and how it ranks the potential control workers, define vectors y!I and y!U containing


cs are reported as percentages of average earnings for all injured workers in the relevant sample over the time period for which the imbalance statistics are calculated.
Table A.1 shows that the quality of the match for both samples is high. The aver


: Table reports average difference between earnings for the best control and earnings for remaining controls over four years surrounding the injury date. Sample size is 338,736, as groups of control workers that contain only one control worker cannot


4–3–2–1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121314151617181920
Quarters after quarter of injury
Methods and Supplemental Results for Chapter Three 111
we did not use any data on the level of wages from this time period to choose the matched con- trols, we view th


if- fers from the definition presented in Chapter Three, where we defined relative earnings at the individual level. In Chapter Four, however, we averaged earnings over control and injured workers separately and then took the ratio of the averages. A


igure B.1
Trends in Deciles of Individual-Level Relative Earnings
 Relative earnings in second post-injury year (%)
150
140
130
120
110
100
 90
 80
 70
 60
 50
 40
 30
 20
 10
0
2005 2006
90
80 70 60
50
40
30 20 10
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Quart


tal Results for Chapter Four 115
Methodology for Case-Mix Adjustment of Time Profile of Relative Earnings
To assess the efect of covariates on injured worker outcomes, our primary regression specifica- tion for the efect of injury on labor market out


y.
 116 Benefits and Earnings Losses for Permanently Disabled Workers in California
Table B.1
Definition of Implied TTD Duration Control Variables and Average Durations and Paid-to-Date Amounts by Decile of Implied Duration
       Minimum TTD Duratio


age TTD duration that initially raised our concerns about right-truncation is apparent among cases with low and high implied duration alike and begins in 2010. The decline in the average dura- tion closely mirrors the decline in the median, and chang


ercent) than for the sample used to estimate the overall time profile of relative earnings (73.7 percent), but match the overall averages very closely in later years.
The higher rate of missing industry codes in earlier years raises the possibility o


ontains an industry code field as well. Unfortunately, industry reporting on the FROI is missing for 59 percent of 2005 injuries and 40 percent of 2006 injuries that would otherwise be usable in our regression sample, and so we do not use it in our a


clusions that we draw from our decomposition results.
Regression Estimates for Association Between Worker Characteristics and Post-Injury Outcomes
Table B.4 shows parameter estimates for the coefficients on age and gender. Because we are not explicit


(0.00422)
    Table B.4—Continued
Pre-Injury Job Tenure excluded group: 1–2Q
[963.0–
1,826]
3,424***
Pre-injury job tenure 8Q+
Annual Earnings: Difference from Control Workers
Third Post-Injury Year
Post-Injury Year Second
First Post-Injury Year
Vari


Decile of total disability duration excluded group: No paid TTD
−677.1***
(174.7)
−334.8]
[−1,019–
TTD Duration Decile 2
124 Benefits and Earnings Losses for Permanently Disabled Workers in California
   Twelfth Quarter Post-Injury Quarter Post-Injur


t-Injury
Quarter Post-Injury Eighth
Eighth Twelfth Fourth Quarter Quarter Quarter Post-Injury Post-Injury Post-Injury
Quarter Post-Injury Fourth
Third Post-Injury Year
Post-Injury Year Second
First Post-Injury Variables Year
0.0629] [−0.0792–
0.0769]


her firms in the same industry, while EP state may capture labor demand in diferent industries.
Table B.7 reports the regression coefficients for EPstate and %Δt−04EPindustry in regres- sions for earnings and employment outcomes at one, two, and thre


ngs associated with the Great Recession as well as the slow recovery.
While it is impossible to test the assumption that time-varying factors other than eco- nomic conditions caused the decline in relative earnings observed between 2005 and 2012, we


ings were very simi- lar to those obtained from our preferred (diferenced) model and are not reported here.
Specification for Proportional Losses Neither our preferred specification nor the alterna- tive model is well suited to estimating relative ea


tive values.8 For example, to calculate the regression-adjusted time trends in Figure 4.4 we constructed the fitted values
yˆI(q)= f(EI,pre-injury,βˆE)+XDβˆD+XIβˆI +XFβˆF +μ i i jq q
yˆC(q)= f(EI,pre-injury,γˆE)+XDγˆD+XIγˆI +XFγˆF +ν i i jq q
We then


ses because we are interested in predictions near the sample average. In practice, our predicted probabilities were all reasonable and well-behaved.
yˆ C ( q )
 144 Benefits and Earnings Losses for Permanently Disabled Workers in California
Table B.8


the start of the recession (2008–2012) to pre-recession (2005–2007) outcomes. Table B.8 reports similar calculations that omit the recession years from the sample, comparing 2010– 2012 to 2005–2007. The estimated contribution of compositional efects


ically identical under these alternative outlier screens. While $400,000 annualized earnings is still a high wage (particularly relative to the population of workers’ compensation claimants), the stability of our estimates makes us confident that our


kers injured at the same-size firm with similar wages in the same quarter, match failure is uncor- related with earnings loss, this method delivers estimates that are representative of the popula-
9 See Bhattacharya et al. (2010) for a discussion of


y in education and health care. Nearly all employees in the public administration sector are employed by “firms” (defined by the state tax ID number used to remit UI payroll taxes) in the largest size category. Excluding workers with at-injury employ


re B.2 displays this time profile. Relative earnings are slightly lower than in our main estimates, reflecting larger earnings losses at the smallest firms (which are substantially upweighted in this calculation). However, the overall shape of the ti


DIX C
Methods and Supplemental Results for Chapter Five
Estimation of Statutory Benefits for WCIS
Due to several limitations of the information on PPD ratings and benefits available in the WCIS, our analysis of trends in statutory benefits combines d


nts on all claims or restricting attention to closed claims thus represents a dilemma in which either approach may lead to biased estimates of trends in benefit levels due to right-censoring.
 151
152 Benefits and Earnings Losses for Permanently Disa


timated TTD duration
• body part of injury codes reported on the FROI
• pre-injuryannualearnings
• age in years interacted with gender
• claim status (closed versus open) interacted with residence in Southern California.
1 We used three-digit zip cod


(elsewhere in California) higher than open cases in the same region, reflecting the fact that more severe cases remain open longer. While this regression model explains only 14 percent of the variation in statutory benefits, we do not need to have hi


capture two of the most important influences on ratings: injury date and time between the injury and the DEU rating. Besides the strong relationship between time to rating and case severity that led to the right-censoring problems discussed in Chapt


2015). To produce the estimates presented in Chapter Five, we use a weighted average of Bˆ(Xisct ) for represented and unrepresented cases where the weight assigned to represented cases is fixed at 74 percent in all quarters of injury.
Table C.2
In-S


d capture information about trends in the broader population and thus serve as a useful check on the robustness of our results.
Figure C.1 depicts trends in wage replacement for the WCIS with benefit imputed from the DEU without stratifying on repres


299-C.2
  Number of cases
1,000
1,500 2,000
Days to first DEU rating
2,500
Methods and Supplemental Results for Chapter Five 157
rating is strongly related to the severity of the case. Figure C.3 illustrates this pattern by plot- ting the average fin


tings) and statutory benefits. In light of these differences, we begin our examina- tion of the DEU by presenting trends in relative earnings stratified on representation status in Figure C.4.5 Earnings losses for Summary and Formal ratings (which ov


ented. Weights used to correct for failure to match.
          Summary and Formal Ratings
S.B. 899 Benefits
S.B. 863 Maximum Applied to S.B. 899 Ratings S.B. 863 Benefits and Ratings
S.B. 863 + Return to Work Fund
Consult Ratings
S.B. 899 Benefits
S.


the WCIS. More notably, the negative impact of the Great Recession is far more muted: while relative earnings in the unweighted DEU dip sharply during the recession, the decline in relative earnings between the pre-recession and post-recession perio


08 Q3/08
Q1/09 Q3/09
Summary, < = 899 days Consult, < = 1,613 days Summary, < = 1,613 days Consult, 900–1,613 days Consult, < = 899 days
162 Benefits and Earnings Losses for Permanently Disabled Workers in California
We compared earnings losses and b


ail (%)
Transport/warehousing (%)
Wholesale (%)
Unweighted number of cases with matched controls
WCIS DEU
44.4 46.1
42 40 $46,083 $50,086
5 4 6 5 3 3 7 7 5 10 8 9
13 11 16 16 13 19 13 9
5 5
6 5 345,282 88,668
  NOTES: WCIS wage loss sample consists o


esults for Chapter Six
Measurement of Return to Work Benefit Eligibility in the DEU
As implemented by DWC, the return to work benefit is available to workers meeting the eligibility criteria for the Supplemental Job Displacement Benefit, namely that


NOTE: Workers classified as eligible for the RTW benefit if they are not employed at the at-injury employer at the time of their first DEU rating or for four subsequent quarters.
RAND RR1299-D.1
from injuries in 2008 and earlier years to estimate the


.7 25.4 31.5 56.3 10.8
Ratio of Five-Year Losses to Second- Year Losses
9.03 11.16 5.23
4.34 5.55 3.32 6.70
Number of Cases
2247 1068 495 196 100 25 4131
Number of Cases
2247 1068 495 196 100 25 4131
Ratio of Five-Year Losses to Second- Year Losses (


3,493 $32,454 $24,252
9.9 13.6 13.3 19.2 29.3
 Insufficient Data $33,919 $34,374
$31,917
$31,329
1216
170 Benefits and Earnings Losses for Permanently Disabled Workers in California
Table D.2—Continued
Final Rating
Before Year 1 Apportionment (Contro


e instrument is uncorrelated with noise in the explanatory variable of interest (Hausman, 2001). Impairment ratings satisfy this condition unless idio- syncratic variation in an injured worker’s impairment rating is correlated with the labor market o


 evidence that S.B. 863 led to a statistically significant change in horizontal equity.
Abbreviations
 AMA American Medical Association
AME agreed medical evaluator
BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics
CHSWC California Commission on Health and Safety and W


Men Injured at Work,” Journal of Human Resources, Vol. 38, No. 3, 2003, pp. 722–757.
Boone, J., and J. C. van Ours, “Are Recessions Good for Workplace Safety?” Journal of Health Economics, Vol. 25, No. 6, 2006, pp. 1069–1093.
Boone, J., J. C. van Our


,” Political Analysis, Vol. 15, No. 3, 2007, pp. 199–236.
Hoynes, Hilary, Douglas L. Miller, and Jessamyn Schaller, “American Economic Association Who Suffers During Recessions?” The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 26, No. 3, 2012, pp. 27–47.


njuries at Work: The Effects on Earnings and Employment, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 2001. As of May 3, 2016: http://www.rand.org/pubs/drafts/DRU2554.html
Reville, Robert, Robert Schoeni, and Craig W. Martin, Trends in Earnings Loss from


state workers’ compensation system, which were enacted in 2012 as part of Senate Bill (S.B.) 863. These reforms included several changes to permanent partial disability (PPD) benefits. To monitor the success of S.B. 863, the California Commission on


  CORPORATION
Assessment of the State and Local Anti-Terrorism Training (SLATT) Program
Lois M. Davis, Todd C. Helmus, Priscillia Hunt, Leslie Adrienne Payne, Salar Jahedi, Flavia Tsang
For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/R


ith such topics as public safety, effective policing, police-community relations, drug policy and enforcement, corrections policy, use of technology in law enforcement, tort reform, catastrophe and mass-injury compensation, court resourcing, and insu


Workshop Participants to capture feedback from recent training participants; and (5) conducting a cost and benefit analysis using data from a choice experiment included in the survey that asked SLATT training participants to trade off and indicate h


crimes and criminally suspicious activity constituted the fourth-largest source of initial clues (Strom, Hollywood, and Pope, 2016).
Local and state law enforcement appreciate strategic concerns about jihadi and domestic terrorism threats to the Unit


participants reported that the information provided on the domestic and international terrorist threats was useful, with the investigative/intelligence workshop participants tending to rate higher the utility of this information than the train-the-t


the-trainer participants visited the SLATT website more frequently than investigative/intelligence workshop participants. Fifty-two percent of investigative/intelligence workshop participants visited the SLATT website one or two times in the three mo


lanners also commented that SLATT training further supported their overall preparedness goals for terrorism and supported other training they did in this area, noting that the no-cost aspect was very important to agencies’ being able to have personne


they value different features of the training is based on a discrete choice experiment (a technique for quantifying the perceived benefits in terms of “willingness to pay”) included in the survey to understand how participants valued different aspec


ty is CT and who are actively engaged in this area. Given this, our focus here is on some suggestions for improving BJA’s SLATT Program that are centered on the key findings above. Table S.1 briefly lists suggestions by topic area. Additional context


and reach of the website to understand how it can be more effectively tied into trainings.
• Assess the administrative costs associated with maintaining and regularly updating the website.
 xii
Suggestions for Further Assessing the SLATT Program
In t


mation from the survey of workshop participants to get some initial insights on the costs of SLATT training to law enforcement. We did not formally assess the costs to planners and host agencies of the trainings; future assessments might wish to quan


lysis of 176 thwarted terrorist plots against American targets between 1987 and 2010 that included overseas plots. Similar to Strom et al. (2010), Dahl (2011) concluded that plots were most often foiled through conventional law enforcement activities


r actually served as their state’s leader for terrorism-related intelligence gathering, analysis, and dissemination. More than 50 percent of state agencies reported a similar amount of involvement in homeland security planning and coordination at the


 on-site training (e.g., investigative/intelligence workshops, specialized workshops that cover a range of topics, instruction at law enforcement meetings, stand-alone sessions at conferences)
• train-the-trainer workshops aimed at law enforcement tr


oma City, Oklahoma, in 1995, the U.S. Attorney General asked BJA to develop a CT training program for law enforcement in the United States. The SLATT Program was developed in conjunction with the FBI and was designed to provide instruction to enable


view with the SLATT Program director, May 5, 2015.
6 Sovereign citizens are anti-government extremists who believe that, even though they physically reside in the United States, they are separate or “sovereign” from the United States. They believe th


 by the host agencies.
SLATT training addresses the areas of detection, investigation, and interdiction. Table 1.1 illustrates the type of topics SLATT training includes under each category.7
7 In addition, BJA requires that all SLATT training and te


urces to “follow the money trail.”
Violent Criminal Extremism in the Prison System: Explores how law enforcement can incorporate the intelligence potential from correctional departments into criminal cases, including those that involve terrorism.
Rad


nformation during the course. These various actors also may help coordinate the SLATT training event.
7
Table 1.2. Overview of the Different Types of SLATT Workshops
      Investigative/ intelligence workshops
Description
Typically a two-and-a-half-d


ate groups
     Train-the- trainer workshops
   Specialized workshops
   NOTES: Descriptions of the sample training agendas are based on the Marriottsville, Maryland, March 5–7, 2014, investigative intelligence workshop; Hot Springs, Arkansas, June 1


Lastly, law enforcement personnel and other SLATT trainees gain access to the SLATT website when they register for their course (SLATT homepage, 2016). In addition to the course materials provided at the training, the site (as noted above) offers an


r.
8 FLETC’s strategic plan (DHS, 2007) indicates that a goal is to continue to revise and develop training programs for export delivery to state, local, tribal, and campus law enforcement agencies with emerging programs, including anti-terrorism int


o describe what the threat picture looks like and what types of threats law enforcement are most focused on.
Approach
We used a mixed-methods approach to assess the SLATT Program. We attended SLATT workshops conducted in 2013, 2014, and the spring of


on train-the-trainer workshops, because they were not offered in the initial years of data collection. The extent to which the 2014–2015 train- the-trainer workshops were not representative of those previously conducted by the SLATT Program might li


 was cost-prohibitive and outside the scope of this study. To the extent that we are missing the perspective of these nonparticipating law enforcement agencies, this is a potential study limitation.
In assessing SLATT costs, our original plan was to


features, and Appendix C provides the cost and benefit model statistics.
14
2. Terrorism Threat
An initial question that arises in assessing BJA’s SLATT Program is the continued utility of providing anti-terrorism training to state and local law enfo


 Our use of the term jihadi threat elsewhere in this report refers to the threat from Muslim extremism.
12 This definition of domestic terrorists is derived from Bjelopera (2013). It is derived from a number of different
U.S. government sources that


in the United States or conducted any attacks “in the West since the bombings on London’s transportation system in 2005.” They note that, while the group’s ideology has inspired adherents to kill 21 people in the United States, “a mass-casualty terro


number of those indicted/killed have waxed and waned between 2001 and 2016, the data show a clear and significant uptick in jihadi activity since 2014. These attacks can largely be attributed to the rise of IS and its inspiration for U.S. extremists.


orist acts draw on ideologies whose nonviolent expression are protected by the U.S. Constitution’s First Amendment. While a number of groups may have extremist ideologies and while criminal or terrorist acts may draw on such ideologies, these groups


stitutions have kept such lists (Bjelopera, 2013), some of which we drew on for this analysis.
 19
Finally, there are animal rights and environmental extremists, both of which commit criminal acts in support of their causes. Typically, animal rights


self-disclosed by publicizing actions
• 26 (7.3 percent) suspicious activity report (SAR).
Perceptions of Law Enforcement About the Terrorist Threat and Their Need for Training
Next, we seek to characterize the terrorism threat as perceived by law en


r like-minded extremist groups.”
22
Figure 2.5. Law Enforcement’s Perception of National and Local Terrorism Threat
50
45
40 al-Qa'ida Local Threat 35
30
al-Qa'ida National Percent of Respondents 25     Threat
20
Other VE Local Threat 15
10
Other VE


kshop was to “figure out how to follow the money.” Several interviewees commented on recent suspicious activities. One participant noted that there were several terrorism-like incidents in and around their local community, including a “right- wing in


event, in contrast, noted a mix of factors that prompted them to host this investigative/intelligence workshop. They noted that St. Louis has a number of high-profile targets, including such Fortune 500 companies as the
24
Boeing Company,21 Monsanto


016,” no date). This, combined with other forms of intelligence, helps limit the terrorism death toll. While the FBI has played a
21 Boeing Defense, Space & Security’s headquarters is in St. Louis and represents one of the largest manufacturers in th


llowing topics: (a) what aspects of planning the individual was involved in or had responsibility for, (b) other stakeholders involved in the planning process, (c) how the focus of the workshop was determined, (d) how the training was marketed to law


rkshop had a strong focus on terror finance investigations. The Arkansas USAO was investigating possible financial crimes by local foreign nationals who were sending large bulks of cash overseas. When the USAO representative contacted SLATT Program s


train-the-trainer workshop that had been well received. The Pennsylvania USAO representative then contacted the local RISS center, and together they reached out to the SLATT Program to initiate a request for training. In the case of the Franklin, Mas


ty.” This interviewee further noted that, more recently, in considering how to balance the number of requests it receives, the SLATT Program is considering how to prioritize trainings based on operational necessity, with input from the FBI.
To develo


east 100 attendees
− handling the conference logistics (e.g., meeting space, food, audio-visual equipment)
− costs associated with the venue, marketing, and conference logistics
− arranging for continuing education credits for the SLATT training if a


end: “State, local, and tribal law enforcement officers responsible for investigating and/or monitoring terrorist and criminal extremist groups or individuals will want to attend this workshop. Participants should possess basic investigative skills o


ng issues they have seen: “What you gave me was enlightening. How can I take the information I know to the next step?”
Also, several interviewees noted that the train-the-trainer workshops could benefit from more time spent on teaching participants o


alance: (1) having SLATT training needs driven from the bottom up, with localities and regions determining what their terrorism-related training needs are and what topics would be particularly germane to state and local law enforcement, or (2) having


es also expressed concern that DOJ might cancel the SLATT Program, noting that doing so would signal less priority being placed on terrorism preparedness and training and would represent a loss of an important resource for state and local law enforce


e, and four instructors and IIR staff).
28 At these two workshops, we conducted interviews with 17 participants, one instructor, and one planner. 35
  trainings provided us with the background information and insights about these workshops that was u


ype of Training
Train-the-trainer workshop
Train-the-trainer workshop
Train-the-trainer workshop
Investigative/ intelligence workshop
Investigative/ intelligence workshop
Location
Mobile, AL Franklin, MA Camp Hill, PA Countryside, IL
St. Louis, MO
Da


ndents
Who participates in SLATT investigative/intelligence and train-the-trainer workshops? Table 4.2 indicates that 59 percent of survey respondents represented city and county jurisdictions. In addition, 25 percent of train-the-trainer participant


 86 percent of training
law enforcement for eight years or
tended to be more experienced law enforcement personnel than those who had participated in the investigative/intelligence workshops. Specifically, 94 percent of train-the-trainer workshop par


g for their departments.
 41
Table 4.5. Number of SLATT Training Events or Workshops Participants Had Attended During the Past Five Years
    Trainings Attended
1
2
3
4
5+
Total (n)
Overall
68.29% 20.33% 5.69% 0.81% 4.88% 123
Investigative/Intelligen


ing in this area. Those who participated in the investigative/intelligence workshops were somewhat more likely than the train-the-trainer workshop participants to be interested in learning about financial criminal activity.
 43
    Goal(s)
(mark all


he training provided would lead participants to change their approach to or how they investigate terrorist threats. Overall, 65 percent of workshop participants felt that the information provided during the SLATT training would change their approach


ith 44 percent of investigative/intelligence workshop participants) (Figure 4.7).
Figure 4.7. Participants’ Assessment of Whether the SLATT Workshops Provided Opportunities to Network with the Law Enforcement Community
With respect to networking oppo


agues
Shared specific content (e.g., briefings, SLATT newsletters) from the SLATT website with colleagues
Gave a class or briefing to others in their agency or department
Other
Did not share the information learned
Total (n)
Overall
Investigative/ In


statement, suggesting that, although the workshop participants may rate the information provided on domestic terrorist threats as being useful, it was not sufficient to necessarily change their approach to or how they investigate domestic terrorist


choice experiment that asked SLATT training participants to trade off and value the different aspects of the training they had received. This chapter is divided into two parts. The first part consists of the survey that measures direct and indirect c


as. Two key questions remain, however: (1) How much time and money is spent by local and state police to attend a SLATT training? (2) How much do officers value key features of SLATT Programs? Knowing this would help decisionmakers design programs in


his study are relevant only to SLATT training programs; they are not transferable to other training programs. However, the approach used in this study could be used to answer these questions for trainings more generally or another training program mo


nt for an item, many respondents chose not to answer, and we assume that nonresponse to a line item (e.g., food/drink, hotel, travel) indicates a zero cost. We also allowed for an “Other Cost” option. For this option, several respondents indicated “v


ed the types of examples offered. The purpose of this attribute is not to measure the impact of domestic terrorism; rather, it is to examine officers’ preferences about materials taught in the class.
Concerning duration of training, interviewees indi


ly biased responses. Specifically, we used the Pearson correlation coefficient between the ranked variables (Spearman correlation coefficient) to test for correlation, and we fail to reject the hypothesis that there is no association between variable


odel specifications to include the type of training attended (train- the-trainer, specialized training) in order to test whether different groups of respondents placed different valuations on any of the attributes.
3. We tested alternative model spec


allows for the collection of several responses from each individual, which substantially reduces the cost of data collection. However, the collection of multiple responses from the same individual means that a respondent’s basic, underlying preferenc


in parentheses. a Spent away from normal duties, including travel time.
 63
Benefits of SLATT: How Much Did Officers Value Key Features of the Trainings?
We used a conditional logit model40 to estimate the value that officers placed on each core comp


* p-value < 0.01. No asterisk means not statistically significant.
The result that the “optimal” number of days for a SLATT training program is three days generally holds if we examine the investigative/intelligence group and the train-the-trainer gr


cal examples and a program without local examples.
An important feature of this type of analysis is the ability to compare features of the program. For example, suppose a SLATT training program is one day and has only domestic topics. Those residing


ndents indicate that the negative impacts of a program over 100 miles away could be offset by a three-day program with international topics (compared with a one-day program with domestic topics only).
Third, this study found that there were potential


play an important role in detecting and preventing terrorist attacks. Strom et al. (2010) estimated that 80 percent of foiled terrorist plots in the United States were discovered because of observations by state and local law enforcement or by the ge


s what steps the United States and its partners can take to develop community-oriented approaches to CVE from a range of groups and individuals, including domestic terrorists and homegrown violent extremists in the United States, as well as terrorist


es introducing
70
and updating law enforcement on the different topics covered and facilitating networking among law enforcement and other experts in the region. Most of the participants who responded to the survey indicated that they had attended on


ad learned. Nearly two-thirds of train-the-trainer workshop participants indicated that they planned to use the information learned during the SLATT workshop and materials provided to design their own courses. They also were more likely to travel far


other law enforcement agencies’ priorities, SLATT helps ensure that this type of training is reaching state and local law enforcement by providing it at no cost to participants. The planners also commented that SLATT training further supported their


eported that their shift was not covered. While our survey allowed us to capture such direct costs, it did not allow us to
41 The costs to planners were not explored in our assessment; however, future analyses may want to quantify these costs.
42 Bec


rticipants, a three-day training was most valued, followed by a two-day training, suggesting that the optimal number of days for a SLATT workshop is three days. This result generally held even when we examined the investigative/ intelligence group an


ning to many who may not get this type of training otherwise. Overall, the planners we interviewed had a favorable impression of SLATT trainings. They noted that the no-cost aspect and the quality of trainings SLATT provided were instrumental in thei


of those who participate in the investigative/intelligence workshops. A key question we were unable to answer was the degree to which the train-the-trainer workshop participants actually develop courses and trainings for their agencies and, ultimate


 with one another. Workshop participants also could be asked to submit questions they might have for federal representatives in advance of the workshop.
Improve Networking Opportunities
Law enforcement personnel who participated in the investigative/


their own courses.
This suggests the SLATT website is seen as an important resource by law enforcement trainers. In a sense, the website can be thought of as an opportunity to create a community of interest among law enforcement in this area. It woul


investigative/intelligence workshops and participants in train-the-trainer workshops, other comparisons of interest might include federal law enforcement compared with state and local law enforcement or law enforcement from major metropolitan areas w


rent groups?
79
One of the challenges in evaluating the effectiveness of BJA’s SLATT Program is that it is broad in its reach; however, when we look at exposure to SLATT trainings, the majority of survey respondents indicated that they had participat


e on different aspects of CT would be worthwhile.
In terms of costs, our early interviews highlighted that the costs of SLATT training to law enforcement agencies were modest, including the direct costs of sending several officers to training and bac


. Joint Terrorism Task Force/Fusion Cell
d. Federal
e. Military
f. College campus
g. Other (briefly describe) ____________________________________________
 2. Please select the response that best describes your current position? (choose one answer) a


ter terrorism investigative skills
g. To enhance my investigative skills, other than terrorism-related h. To learn more about investigating financial criminal activity
i. Other ____________________________________
8. How did you hear about the SLATT


 in the workshop.” (choose one answer)
a. Disagree
b. Disagree somewhat
c. Neither agree or disagree d. Agree somewhat
e. Agree
14. Are you planning to use the material you learned in the SLATT Train-the-Trainer workshop to teach colleagues who were


al future courses. Specifically, we would like to understand your preferences for course topics, length, location, and registration cost. We will ask you to compare six pairs of options. Please indicate your preferred option in each of the pairs.
If


 SLATT instructors have. When describing its recruiting protocol, the IIR program director commented,
We leverage the personal relationships we have built, use word of mouth, and make use of personal references. . . . I’m working to identify the next


upports on-site training events by providing registrants access to a range of materials prior to a training event. One must register and request approval before being granted access to the site. Before registering, visitors must specify if they merel


ariable: Participant’s Choice
Registration fee (omitted: $0) $100
$200
Course length (omitted: 1 day) 2 days
3 days
4 days
Course content (omitted: domestic only) Domestic + local
Domestic + local + international
Distance to training (omitted: <25 mi


 Domestic Terrorist Threat
Information Provided ............................................................................................................ 45 Figure 4.4. Participants’ Assessment of Usefulness of International Terrorist Threat
Infor


Table 4.9. Whether Participants Contacted Other Workshop Participants or SLATT
Lecturers Following the Training Received ......................................................................... 51
Table 4.10. Whether Participants Shared the Informa


 Be Afraid, Be a Little Afraid: The Threat of Terrorism from Western Foreign Fighters in Syria and Iraq, Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, Brookings Policy Paper No. 34, November 2014.
Carter, David, Steve Chermak, Jeremy Carter, and Jack Drew


n, Policing Terrorism, New York: Manhattan Institute, 2006.
Kirk, Ashley, “How Many Foreign Fighters Are Fighting for ISIL?” The Telegraph, March 24, 2016. As of September 16, 2016: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/03/29/iraq-and-syria-how-many-f


, Washington, D.C., 2010.
Rasmussen, Nicholas J., testimony before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, “Current Terrorist Threat to the United States,” February 12, 2015. As of September 14, 2016: http://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/


e 2014 Quadrennial Homeland Security Review, Washington, D.C., 2014. As of September 14, 2016: http://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/qhsr/2014-QHSR.pdf
———, “DHS State and Local Law Enforcement Resource Catalog,” 2016. As of September 1


   THE JUSTICE INNOVATION CENTER
Identifying the Needs and Challenges of Criminal Justice Agencies in Small, Rural, Tribal, and Border Areas
   Jessica Saunders, Meagan Cahill, Andrew R. Morral, Kristin J. Leuschner, Gregory Midgette, John S. Hollywo


which spans both criminal and civil justice systems issues with such topics as public safety, effective polic- ing, police–community relations, drug policy and enforcement, corrections policy, use of technology in law enforcement, tort reform, catast


 . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. ..2 . . 76 . . 76
xxii . . 10 . . 16 . . 17 . . 21 . 22 . 24 . 24 . 27
. . 32 . . 75 . . 89
ix
. .
97
99 119 120 122 125
Summary
 Technology is important to improving the effectiveness, efficiency, and safety of the crimi


Tribal, and Border Criminal Justice Agencies
define a tribal agency as a local law enforcement agency independently operated by one or a confederation of the 566 federally recognized tribes.
JIC’s initial efforts were spent gathering information on t


es nationwide, the most-recent evidence suggests that crime (e.g., violent crime, driving under the influence) disproportionately affects tribal areas (Perry, 2004).
Little Existing Research on the Technology Needs of SRTB Agencies
The literature rev


tatives from SRTB agencies, including personnel from law enforcement, courts, and institutional and community corrections (the latter being probation and parole agencies). Our interviews included representatives from 29 border agencies and 25 intervi


y projects requiring large capital investments.
Social Service Provision Challenges
Respondents noted a variety of technology-related challenges that affect service provision, especially related to mental health and substance-use treatment; these iss


 provided evidence of insufficient IT capacity among personnel.
Some of the technological deficits noted among SRTB law enforcement agencies included a lack of laptop computers and cameras in patrol cars, license-plate readers, and radios. Among corr


renovations to be suitable for technology upgrades. Some courts, particularly tribal courts, faced challenges with the structural adequacy of their buildings. Other facilities were so antiquated that some technology acquisition would make sense only


n particular, two laws play a significant role in determining differences across tribal agencies, their authorities, resources, and operational requirements. Before the enactment of Public Law 83-280 in 1953, sovereign tribal nations and the federal


f guidance and educational materials, development of training, development and dis- semination of new business practices, and development and dissemination of model policies or even legislation.
The JIC advisory panel convened on December 7–8, 2015,


rns emerged. Law enforcement and institutional corrections needs focused heavily on operations; court needs focused heavily on IT issues; and community corrections needs focused heavily on resourcing issues.
All breakout groups had some top-ranking n


veral top-ranked needs applied to improving the security and resiliency of SRTB courts through such means as continuity-of-operations planning tools, emergency response training, and evaluations of courthouses’ abilities to respond to emergencies.
Im


be modified so agencies could hire part-time employees to administer grants.
Community Corrections Themes
Refocusing on Rehabilitation and Positive Behavioral Change
Participants emphasized a broad-based need for community corrections to transition t


rement and Management of Information-Technology Systems
The expert panel identified a need for remote training for IT, developing technology mentor- ship and TA funding, and developing a low-cost way to improve internal IT management capabilities.
Us


y and technological need assessment.
• Some issues are especially challenging for certain sectors, such as the court’s lack of mental health and substance-use programs, and border agencies’ need to address drug and human trafficking.
• There is littl


ssing technology solutions in specific, real-world SRTB contexts, helping to build the knowledge base on technology effectiveness in the SRTB context. Also, it will help build up a set of tools and resources (e.g., website, searchable database) that


o provide such perceptive reviews.
We would also like to thank all the people who took time to participate in the interviews and advisory panel. Their insights were invaluable.
xxv
Abbreviations
 ABA American Bar Association
ACA American Correctional


ections.
JIC’s work supports NIJ’s investments in justice system technologies and informs the wider communities of technology providers and adopters. JIC also provides NIJ with guidance on which technologies can be cost-effectively employed in SRTB s


). A rural county is one classified as code 6, 7, 8, or 9 on the rural–urban classification scale.
RAND RR1479-1.1
1 The U.S. Census Bureau defines urbanized areas as having 50,000 or more people and rural areas as encompassing all population, housin


 and agricul- tural crime, and domestic violence are inversely related to agency size. Despite these generali- ties, there is considerable variation across small-town and rural agencies.
Courts
Small and rural courts face unique issues as well. The s


and those in border areas. Rodriguez’s analysis of court processes in Arizona found that Native Americans were “less likely to be referred for informal processing, more likely to be detained, and more likely to have a petition filed than Whites,” all


mmunity services. And small jails typically offer fewer services, such as on-site medical personnel, work opportunities, education programs, and counseling and rehabilitative programming, than urban jails do. High turnover and inmates with greater ne


portant to note that this body of work is more than a decade old and might not reflect current trends.
Introduction 5
6 The Justice Innovation Center for Small, Rural, Tribal, and Border Criminal Justice Agencies
Tribal Agencies
Law Enforcement
Resea


ng state–tribal court forums, joint-jurisdic- tion courts, and written collaborative agreements between state and tribal authorities (Arnold, Reckess, and Wolf, 2012).
In addition, culturally specific programs have emerged in state courts; these incl


“failed to provide safe and secure detention facilities throughout Indian Country” (U.S. Department of Interior, 2004, p. 3). The majority of serious incidents, including fatalities, attempted suicides, and escapes, not only threatened safety and se


n and information-sharing with federal authorities might also be required because of the nature of the issues with which local criminal justice agencies deal in these areas.
Technology in the SRTB Context
A substantial literature exists on the use of


e many possible criminal justice technologies and applications. However, it is equally important to understand the unique needs of the SRTB justice systems, which are often very different from those in larger or more urban environments.
Selecting cle


e current report.
Introduction 9
10 The Justice Innovation Center for Small, Rural, Tribal, and Border Criminal Justice Agencies
Research Goal 1: Identify Small, Rural, Tribal, and Border Needs
To identify the unique operational needs of the SRTB jus


ent needs among relevant agencies, informed the JIC advisory panel discussions on needs and potential technology solutions, and helped JIC researchers identify potential sites and participants for future technology pilots. Chapter Two describes the m


stakeholders to identify and rank technology needs. We held these discus- sions during an advisory meeting in December 2015, for which more than 40 people, including practitioners and researchers representing all agency and sector types, convened in


resources and best practices provided by a centralized clear- inghouse, which will be particularly relevant once results from the technology pilots are final- ized. The bottom-up approach focuses on facilitating communication between local agencies a


mpirical literature, how these agencies differ from larger urban agencies.
Our focus is on law enforcement agencies and sheriff’s departments, district and county courts (of limited or general jurisdiction), local jails, and probation agencies. We ex


Law enforcement agency located in a border county
Court located in a border county
Jail or other state- or locally run detention facility located in a border county
Probation or parole agency located in a border county
  Of the 17,985 agencies in the


ll in terms of the probation population served—e.g., a small county pools resources with a neighboring larger county or a network of small counties as part of a larger group—so we chose not to filter candidates based on a potentially misidentified de


orcement agency as one located in a county characterized as having (1) a census-defined rural population, (2) a census-defined urban population under 2,500, or (3) a census-defined urban population of between 2,500 and 19,999 in an area not adjacent


identify literature, we undertook two main efforts: A RAND librarian conducted a search for relevant literature in several available databases, and researchers on the JIC team conducted searches using Google Scholar. We included literature in peer-r


r this report includes the references cited.
Methodology 19
20 The Justice Innovation Center for Small, Rural, Tribal, and Border Criminal Justice Agencies
Semistructured Interviews
Research into the needs of SRTB agencies and effective solutions to


opment for each of the 12 specific communities of practice.
We sent letters via email inviting police chiefs, sheriffs, court administrators, and correc- tions officials to participate in the interviews, along with letters of support from NIJ and the


 — California 1 Colorado 1 Connecticut — Delaware — Florida 1 Georgia 1
1 7 1 — 4 1 4 1
— — — — — — — —
5 12 — 1 5 10 — 4 — — — — — 1 — 1
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana 1 1 — — 2 Iowa 23——3
Kansas — Kentucky — Louisiana 1
2 — — 2
1 — — 1 — 1 — 1 — — 2


0.2 — — 0.3 — — 5.6 259 3.5 0.4 — —
  SOURCES: Number of law enforcement agencies by sector: Reaves, 2011. Number of tribal courts: NAICJA, undated. Number of tribal community corrections services: Perry, 2005.
NOTE: — = not applicable because no com


county, and nearly one in seven was located in a border area. Conversely, more than 95 percent of rural agencies, 85 percent of tribal agencies, and nearly 75 percent of border agencies are small. One in four tribal agencies is located in a rural are


of completing eight to ten interviews with tribal court representatives.
The 35 interviews included 15 court administrators; 14 clerks; six court managers, direc- tors, or supervisors; two judges; one attorney; one training court assistant; and two s


, although we did interview one representa- tive from a rural agency that also supervised a tribal population. We interviewed 36 commu- nity corrections representatives in total, each of whom was the chief probation or parole officer or the probation


ice agencies in SRTB communities account for nearly 90 percent of all agencies nationwide, but relatively little research is conducted in these settings for a variety of rea- sons. In this section, we describe the general challenges in these underres


ng and oversight of transient populations during adjudication and community corrections are also difficult, especially among immigrant populations. The need to collaborate with fed- eral agencies performing border patrol activities related to drugs,


g devices)
• information-management tools, such as RMSs, used for everything from evidence to court case files
• analytic tools to leverage available data in investigation and decisionmaking
• communication tools used within facilities, with specific


rom $45,700 to $75,100 (Reaves, 2015). Studies indicate that the work routines of police officers in small and rural agencies are often similar to those of officers in large agencies, with most officers engaged in similar tasks during their shifts, s


small and rural agencies, 60 percent of border agencies, and 55 percent of tribal agencies use the technology. Surveillance technologies (e.g., fixed cameras) are the next most– commonly used video technology, found in more than 60 percent of non-SR


ce data in 2015.
More than 90 percent of all non-SRTB agencies have websites, and more than 80 per- cent use social media. Further, nearly three-quarters of non-SRTB law enforcement agencies report information to the public on their websites, and mor


s in non–Pub. L. 83-280 states. According to Goldberg and Champagne, 2007, pp. vi–vii,
state or county police serving Public Law 280 reservations are rated by Public Law 280 res- ervation residents as less available, slower in response time, less pro


in some cases, fund these services with gaming revenues, taxes, or DOJ grants, although the short-term funding that grants provide makes reliance on them for core operations difficult or impractical.
There is little research on the operational needs


on policing the U.S. borders with Mexico and Canada; however, the bulk of research in this area has focused on federal enforcement rather than local police. Some issues, such as immigration, particularly of undocumented immigrants, as well as human


., 2015).
Another major challenge that SRTB courts face is ensuring equal access to justice. Recruitment and retention of attorneys who provide indigent defense and other legal services in rural areas is a considerable challenge. For example, in rura


between state and federal authorities (Arnold, Reckless, and Wolf, 2011; Arnold, Reckess, and Wolf, 2012). Several strategies have been utilized to improve communi- cation, including tribal and state court forums; joint-jurisdiction courts; and writ