 crime-analysis capability that would use federal databases as data sources. This model would provide incentives for agencies to contribute data to these databases.
The group discussed leveraging new, open-source cloud and information integration too


ness processes.
 Educate the public about how criminal-justice technologies work (or do not work) in the real world.
   Security, privacy, and civil-rights challenges
RAND RR1987-1.7
    Recommendation 3: Integrate security, privacy, and civil- right


sure appropriate use of new technologies.
For (2), panelists noted that it was not possible to create one-size-fits-all technology poli- cies because state and local laws, as well as local operating contexts, are so different. Thus, community involve


n
These recommendations and actions, summarized in Figure 1.8, seek to help attain informa- tion integration throughout the criminal-justice community.
The need to change the culture of organizations is one that is commonly presented as a major barri


igh risks to personnel from a person (or people who might be at a location), and specify any enforcement actions needed (i.e., carry out an arrest warrant or notify a community corrections officer)
• corrections data, especially on those under commun


l agencies; the major limitation here is that different states and localities have very different laws, policies, and traditions on whether and how such a cloud could be used, probably creating a national storage capability infeasible at this time.
F


e to major incidents—sometimes at the same time (e.g., stories on the San Bernardino shootings versus a video release of an officer-involved shooting in Chicago).
Given the large number of articles and data to date on evaluating various policing stra


 law enforcement and other stakeholders throughout.
Findings on Addressing New Technologies and New Consequences
This final recommendation, summarized in Figure 1.10, addresses the theme of addressing new technologies and new consequences.
Discussion


evelop- ments are related to information processing and analysis, but taking advantage of information- processing advances successfully is greatly hampered by a lack of capability on business cases, implementing processes, and security, privacy, and


gton (N.C.) Police
Department
• Phillip Goff, president, Center for Policing Equity, John Jay College of Criminal Justice
• Maggie Goodrich, chief information officer, Los Angeles Police Department
• John Hollywood, Ph.D., director, Information and G


esources by overlaying data from warrants, probation/parole, juvenile justice, and social services.” The meeting also saw special presentations on the future of BWC deployment by the LAPD (which hosted the meeting) and on preventing and responding to


evel consensus on the likely magnitude and breadth of the potential impact on criminal justice. Key dimensions along which impacts could occur included
• people: e.g., training, recruiting, retention
• process: tactics, strategies, and procedures
• o


3, we identified 22 trends and associated impacts, potential responses, and relationships.
Figure B.1
The Futures Wheel
Technical Appendix 35
  First-order impacts
 Trend or event
  SOURCE: Zapyon, 2009. Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 Generic licen


tly or indirectly, and thus are most centrally involved in driving impacts on criminal justice.
Response A Response B
Recommendation
CJTFG action item
 Note describing how trend is being addressed elsewhere
 Analyzing the Trends, Impacts, and Respons


riminal justice–wide information integration
applications might occur (18) • Affects the use of BWCs (21)
• General lack of awareness of existing material on improving cybersecurity (example of 4)
• Demand for cyber protections is an increasing press


nd Sosič, 2016). The trends within a cluster are comparably densely related to one another and less densely connected to trends outside the clusters. Each cluster implies an underlying key theme linking them together. The six clusters, and their und


 an example.
Getting to true, field-wide integration
Lack of business cases and processes
40 Addressing Emerging Trends to Support the Future of Criminal Justice
Identifying Which Themes Are Most Central
The size of the node for each trend in Figure


 of awareness of existing training and reference material on criminal-justice tech- nologies broadly hampered adoption and use of a variety of technologies and made those technologies more vulnerable to attack.
Figure B.4 summarizes the relationships


ow trend is elsewhere
  Lack of core business and use cases and other
technologies
These capture a key storyline emerging from CJTFG
Emergence of situational-awareness
data streams
Need to advance from small-scale to nationwide information-sharing
pr


sharing” again, as one example)
– have a basis in research evidence, if available
• comprehensive, collectively covering all of the themes and most of the constituent trends – For the few trends not covered, the CJTFG and the RAND team identified way


nd
safeguarding.
need for digital-evidence management on a massive scale
– Assess whether CJIS (or another federal agency) should establish a federally sponsored
cloud capability for video and other digital evidence.
need to enable fielding of BWCs
–


. These include hot-spot policing, geospatial predic- tive policing, and crime linking. If the NIBRS data can be further combined with entity data (i.e., data about offenders, victims, vehicles and locations—e.g., the data uploaded to N-DEx, LInX, or


 analysis
 Crime-analysis environment
    RAND RR1987-C.1
Analyses with entity data
 Linking offenders to crimes
 Social-network analysis
 1 The environment might also permit uploading data in LInX, COPLINK, or other formats yet to be determined.
Con


d%20files%208-22-14.ashx
Center for Internet Security, “MS-ISAC: Multi-State Information Sharing and Analysis Center,” undated. As of March 29, 2016:
https://msisac.cisecurity.org/
City of Chicago, “Chicago Data Portal,” undated. As of August 8, 2017


n, Brian A., and Dulani Woods, Criminal Justice Technology Taxonomy Web Tool, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, TL-158-NIJ, 2015. As of March 13, 2016:
h t t p : / / w w w . r a n d . o r g / p u b s / t o o l s / T L 15 8 . h t m l
Justice Inf


 March 30, 2016:
https://www.openstreetmap.org/about
“Our Approach to Privacy,” Apple.com, undated. As of March 29, 2016: http://www.apple.com/privacy/approach-to-privacy/
Periscope, home page, undated. As of March 29, 2016: https://www.periscope.tv/


sition and Use of License Plate Reader Data from a Commercial Service, DHS/ICE/PIA-039, March 19, 2015. As of January 5, 2017:
h t t p s : / / w w w . d h s . g o v / s i t e s / d e f a u l t / fi l e s / p u b l i c a t i o n s / p r i v a c y - p


 JUSTICE, INFRASTRUCTURE, AND ENVIRONMENT
Is Climate Restoration an Appropriate Climate Policy Goal?
Robert J. Lempert, Giacomo Marangoni, Klaus Keller, Jessica Duke
Prepared for the RAND Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and


s been no shortage of past attempts to think globally about the human condition or the long-range future. What has been missing, however, is a means of tying those efforts systematically and analytically to today’s policy decisions. This is the gap t


4.5. Conditions Under Which Pursuing the Restore 2100 Goal Does and
Does Not Create a Moral Hazard ...................................................................................... 24
Figure 4.6. Flow of Funds Between Decarbonization and Carbon


to climate change or by weakening commitment to other ambitious climate goals.
Therefore, this report considers climate restoration through the lens of risk management. Defined broadly, risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives. Risk management


such goals with a 2°C target to reduce the risk of overshoot and developing appropriate long-term financing mechanisms for what might become an expensive public good. In addition, the model dynamics suggest that an ambitious climate restoration goal


 start of the Industrial Revolution.
Proponents envision many types of climate restoration, but one of great interest—and the focus of this study—seeks to return GHG concentrations to the preindustrial level of 300 ppm within ome to two generations.1


 some imbued with a sense of environmental stewardship, returning the climate to its preindustrial state seems like the moral thing to do.
On the other hand, climate restoration presents a monumental task, the pursuit of which is not without the pote


ursuing climate restoration would avoid such moral hazard, that is, provide a net catalytic effect, under conditions in which successful DAC is at least half as likely as successful decarbonization.
The analysis also suggests that near-term actions t


more severely from climate change than the rich and those living in other locations—along with the deep uncertainty that surrounds the scientific understanding of the consequences of any particular level of GHGs (e.g., Moss, 1995; Keller et al., 2005


cale and scope of such activity.
Climate Restoration Technology
Various means exist to extract CO2 from the atmosphere. The most straightforward approaches include reforestation (i.e., growing trees) along with improved management of agricultural and


(Air Miners, undated). 6
 prototype is selling aggregate from captured carbon—reportedly at a profit3—to San Francisco International Airport for terminal renovations, using calcium extracted from waste concrete.4
DAC has different thermodynamic requi


ication with Brent Constantz, Blue Planet’s chief executive officer.
4 Other possible calcium sources include brine from desalination plants and wastewater facilities, which produce water with excess cations. Naturally occurring seawater and geologic


resumably) low-probability, high-consequence climate effects.
that seems
 safe for a few years may not remain safe for decades. If successful, restoration would offer
  As noted in Table 2.1’s second row, even if it proves impossible to reach 300 ppm


the majority of the evidence suggests that coupling risk information with a specific plan not only elevates perceived risk but also motivates behavior change (Fischhoff and Davis, 2014). This finding is particularly clear in the public health field (


risk management under deep uncertainty (Lempert et al., 2003; Lempert et al., 2006). The study explored the consequences of pursuing a climate restoration goal over a wide range of plausible futures, including those in which DAC technology do and do


s study, we regard the near-term decision to pursue a particular climate restoration goal as the policy lever. The analysis then explores the potential positive and negative consequences of making such a choice. In particular, we consider as policy l


 2100
• Restore 2100 and 2°C
  Metrics (M)
• Net present value social welfare
• Annual cost of abatement and carbon
capture
• Damages due to climate change • Maximum global temperature and
atmospheric concentration
• Maximum annual cost of meeting cl


e, GHG concentrations, and damages due to climate change. The model also reports the maximum cost, temperature, and GHG concentration in any given year. The study used these metrics to compare the desirability of alternative pathways and the potentia


future work consideration of any potential conflicts between the storage requirements of DAC and carbon capture from fossil plants.
The climate sensitivity and GHG abatement cost values shown in Table 3.1 spans a reasonable subset of reported estimat


hich it does seem possible or catalytic.
Conditions Under Which Climate Restoration Is Possible
The multiscenario analysis suggests that there are more pathways to the Restore 2100 than the Restore 2050 goal and fewer pathways to Restore 2100 than to


 Low Cost Criteria. Details are shown for various dimensions. The view is filtered on Policy, Abatcost, Ccsmarketcap, Ccsmarketcost, Clim Sens, Daccost, Dacspeed and Leak. The Policy filter keeps resto2050 and resto21
Year
0
0an
d2
deg. The Abatcost


odel the 2 percent GWP threshold as a constraint. Doing so would limit the information we could glean from a large set of runs, since the model would not be able to reach the climate goals in most futures.
 (% Gross World Product) Maximum annual cost


 16% of low-cost cases
D/C = 88%/73%
Cases common to both:
• 2% of total cases
• 16% of low-cost cases
    Restore 2100 and 2°C
    Table 4.2 also provides quantitative measures of the statement that a low-cost pathway “generally falls in” a scenario


 potential overshoots with little effect on the fraction of low-cost pathways, shown in Table 4.1.
 21
Conditions Under Which Climate Restoration Is Catalytic
Proponents see climate restoration as catalytic, helping to increase the likelihood of wide


llenge. As noted by Morton (2015) and by Wagner and Weitzman (2015), many advocates focus on two less- challenging combinations: one in which climate change could cause serious damage, but the costs of reducing emissions are small; and the other in w


5. Conditions Under Which Pursuing the Restore 2100 Goal Does and Does Not Create a Moral Hazard
    Restore goal: Net effect improves outcomes
  Restore goal: Net effect
makes desirable scenarios less likely
     Probability of Best case DAC
100% 75


Figure 4.6 thus shows the net flow of revenues from GHG mitigation to climate restoration for five pathways to the Restore 2100 goal, with different assumptions regarding abatement costs ($225 and $650/GtCO2) and the half-life of carbon sequestered


ze the deployment of technologies that make it easier—and, in fact, may prove necessary—to achieve less ambitious goals, such as the 2°C target. In addition, successful climate restoration could reduce risks by significantly shortening the time that


framework to help adjudicate this question, by considering a scenario in which pursuing climate restoration increases the likelihood of successful DAC while decreasing by a similar amount the likelihood of low-cost decarbonization. Applied across a r


 Restore 2075 would provide a better balance than 2050 between a not-implausible and sufficiently resonant goal.
Second, to avoid the risk of overshoot, a climate restoration goal might best be combined with a temperature target, such as 2°C. The sim


ed scenarios. However, none of these scenarios are guaranteed. Climate restoration thus calls for a learning process. The best we can do is pursue climate restoration with a passion while embedding it in a process of testing, experimentation, correct


ext (seqdac_maxgrowth, %/yr), starting from year 2025:
ESEQDAC[t] <= (1+seqdac_maxgrowth/100)**tstep * ESEQDAC[t-1].
An absolute upper bound of 1 GtC holds in year 2020, which is assumed to be the initial year
for DAC to be able to operate at large s


apture, diffusion speed
Half-life of sequestered carbon
Market for carbon products, marginal cost Market for carbon products, market size
DICE Parameter
t2xco2
Pback mcostseqdac0 seqdac_maxgrowth Reshalflife mcoststor_market0 maxestor_market
    t2xc


um, S. Paltsev, S. Rose, P.R. Shukla, M. Tavoni, B. C. C. van der Zwaan, and D.P. van Vuuren, “Assessing Transformation Pathways,” in Edenhofer, O., R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler, I. Baum, S. Brunner, P. Ei


ation: How Much and When?” Climatic Change, Vol. 88, 2008, pp. 267–291.
Knutti, R., M. A. A. Rugenstein, and G. C. Hegerl, “Beyond Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity,” Nature Geoscience, Vol. 10, No. 10, 2017, p. 727.
Kriegler, E., J. W. Hall, H. Held,


8, 2018:
http://www.pnas.org/content/114/7/1518.long
———, “Scientific and Economic Background on DICE Models,” webpage, October 2017-b. As of March 29, 2018:
https://sites.google.com/site/williamdnordhaus/dice-rice
Nordhaus, W. D., and P. Sztorc, DIC


Global Change, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1997.
Wagner, G. and M. L. Weitzman, Climate Shock: The Economic Consequences of a Hotter Planet, Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press, 2015.
Weitzman, M. L., “GHG Targets as Insurance


   CORPORATION
Strategies to Mitigate the Impact of Electronic Communication and
Electronic Devices on the Right to a Fair Trial
Justin C. Dawson, Duren Banks, Michael J. D. Vermeer, Shoshana R. Shelton
S U M M A R Y ■ The proliferation of electronic


e of Justice, the Priority Criminal Justice Needs Initiative convened a panel to identify ways that electronic communication can impact the right to a fair trial and to recommend strategies to protect witnesses from intimidation and jurors from compr


lenging the court also to transform its approach to protecting the right to a fair trial. The right to a trial by an impartial jury is pro- tected by the Sixth Amendment to the United States Constitu- tion and has been a part of the American justice


use of mobile devices and other new capabilities to do “outside research” during trials and (2) educate jurors on this issue
• develop methods to monitor juror and defendant social media activity, given concerns about use of social media to influence


me by, in part due to the difficulty of identifying and interviewing those witnesses subject to intimidation in response to specific events and/or ongoing, community-based threats. Success-
ful intimidation often occurs beyond the notice of authoriti


threats—“ . . . it is possible the continual progression of electronic communication technologies and social media have made witness intimidation a more insidious problem than ever” (panelist). The sometimes public or widely shared nature of social m


claimed to identify more than 5,000 undercover officers, informants, and wit- nesses before it was shut down in 2007. The site posted names, pictures, statements, and the results of plea bargains where informants provided information that led to the


ded meaning of such com- munications. This often leads to arguments of free speech, which in turn lead judges to vast differences in interpretation. Court procedures may be emerging to convey the intent of visual communications that rely on text shor


informa- tion, thereby compromising the defendant’s right to a fair trial. As one panelist noted, “There is always a problem when the legislature is allowed to dictate what can and cannot go on in a courthouse. They are led by fear and often react to


m all have at least one judicial district that has banned or set limits on the use of electronic devices in the courthouse (National Center for
State Courts, undated). With electronic device bans in place across the country, the panel recognized that


ensus that judicial educa-
tion and knowledge are critical to identify and prevent witness intimidation through social media and other ECD. The panel recognized that with education and understanding, the judges themselves could better control the cou


h which technology evolves.
Strengthen witness protection/ • Prohibitively high cost of the witness relocation programs. protection program
• Photos of witnesses are extremely easy to locate with modern technology.
• Witnesses, despite warnings, cont


w challenges to this old problem, just as it has with witness intimidation. Juror misconduct may take many forms (Morri- son, 2011), including but not limited to searching for additional factual information outside the courtroom and discussion of cou


in 2014 (Marder, 2014). Together, these data on the prevalence of juror misconduct with ECD illustrate that, while it is hard to quantify definitively, juror misconduct with ECD is a significant problem in the modern court system that war- rants cons


esented. As described earlier, the jury system depends on the impartiality
of jurors: “Impartial jurors are those who are willing and able
to consider the evidence presented at trial without preconceived opinions about the defendant’s guilt or innoce


 may not understand
in an attempt to learn more about issues related to the case. The internet provides a means for jurors to instantaneously access unlimited information, conduct their own research, and communicate with people via tweets, blogs, Fac


he scene. During deliberations, the jury asked
the court to define the word “perverse” as it had been used in the case, but the court did not respond. That evening a juror went home after recess and looked up the term, as well as the definition of in


ions should be an option but should be used only after a juror has been adequately instructed and warned against misconduct. Still others strongly eschewed juror sanctions as generally inappropriate and ineffec- tive in most cases. Most of the paneli


essary to determine the case and the small details about people or events we all see and incorporate into our decision- making. Efforts to wall jurors off from considering those small details—“small ‘e’ evidence”—may, in addition to likely being impr


re promising practices. Points of panel consensus are summarized in Table 2.
CONCLUSION
Judges and attorneys have long encountered and addressed witness tampering, juror misconduct, and other potential viola- tions of the right to a fair and impartia


promising avenue to limit juror miscon- duct than concrete rules applied the same way in every circum- stance. With regard to witness or juror intimidation, the panel determined electronic device bans in the courtroom provided a temporary solution to


f judges was a key promising approach identified by the panel with regard to preventing witness intimidation and juror misconduct. Here,
a centralized repository that includes information on the latest case law and technological advances would be hel


unity Oriented Policing Services, 2006.
Dunn, M., Jurors’ and Attorneys’ Use of Social Media During Voir Dire, Trials, and Deliberations, Washington D.C.: Federal Judicial Center, January 2014.
Egley, A. J., and C. Ritz, Highlights of the 2000 Nation


tml
McKay v. Federspiel, 15-1548, U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, May 20, 2016. As of July 20, 2017:
https://w w w.courtlistener.com/opinion/3205597/robert-mckay-v- william-federspiel/?
Morrison, C. M., “Jury 2.0,” Hastings Law Journal,


 Association, Winter, 2013, pp. 1–8.
United States v. Carmichael, 326 F. Supp. 2d 1303, U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Alabama, July 22, 2004.
United States v. Lawson, 677 F.3d 629, 633-34, U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit


International. His research focuses on courts and corrections, criminal justice, and international rule of law projects. He has a law degree from Creighton University. He began his career as a trial attorney before becoming a prosecuting attorney wi


l criminal justice agencies at the federal level; private-sector technology providers; and policymakers active in the criminal justice field.
 This publication was made possible by Award Number 2013-MU-CX-K003, awarded by the National Institute of Ju


       THE ROAD TO
ZER0
A Vision for Achieving Zero Roadway Deaths by 2050
        Liisa Ecola
  Steven W. Popper
Richard Silberglitt
Laura Fraade-Blanar
 Prepared for
   CORPORATION
      For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/


ogram, which focuses primarily on the role of scientific development and technological inno- vation in human behavior, global and regional decisionmaking as it relates to science and technology, and the concurrent effects that science and technology


portion of Population . . . . . . .
S.3. Three Approaches Working Together to Reduce Roadway Deaths to Zero .
1.1. Increases in Deaths by Road User Type, 2011 to 2016. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.2. Proportion of Roadway Deaths


sed investment in emergency response, together with enhanced connectivity for faster crash notification, improved injury prediction, better communication with 911 and first responders, and more-effective emergency medical care.
Improvements in digita


ch the same way that people changed their minds about alcohol-impaired driving in the 1980s and 1990s, drivers in 2050 feel that their communities expect them to comply with speed limits and to not drive distracted. Widespread community road-safety a


y has seen enormous improvements in safety in other areas. As of 2017, no commercial U.S. airline passenger flight has had a fatal crash since 2009, thanks in large part to a collaborative government/industry safety management system. The number of p


rash type, the percentage of fatalities that are men ranges from 49 percent of car passenger deaths to 99 percent of large truck deaths.
• Rural road users are disproportionately affected as well. In 2015, an estimated 19 percent of the U.S. populati


ted States has seen over the past sev- eral decades can be attributed to many factors. One is better vehicle technologies developed by automakers, better in terms of avoiding crashes and protecting those in the vehicle—such tech- nologies save 27,000


ess individual and collective decisions, and a strong safety culture is an essential prerequisite.
The Safe System approach is integral to the Vision Zero movement that started in Sweden in the 1990s and began spreading to the United States a decade


ing crashes is the highest priority, improving post-crash response also rep- resents a significant opportunity for saving lives. Twenty percent of trauma deaths could be prevented with optimal trauma care. Improved trauma care will be essential in ad


s promise large advances in safety. ADAS—such as auto- matic emergency braking, adaptive cruise control, and lane-keeping—are already being intro- duced into the fleet. Each year, these technologies are offered on a greater number of new vehicles and


majority of vehicles
Insurance markets nudge bad drivers to safer vehicles
             “Safety in all policies” approach spreads
   TODAY 2025
NOTE: TZD = Toward Zero Deaths.
RAND RR2333-S.3
2030
2040
2045
2050
Traffic deaths
2035
Zero
deaths
These


r with industry and other stakeholders to develop platforms and systems to collect
and analyze data that will generate the information needed to target safety interventions.
• Assess strategies for improving vehicle safety, including partnerships and


onal trauma triage criteria for crash victims.
• Collaborate with government and business on adopting the Safe System approach and
promoting a strong safety culture.
Safety researchers and advocates:
• Educate policymakers at the local, state, and fe


bout a future with zero road- way deaths. Susan Crotty handled the communications and meeting logistics of the expanding RTZ Coalition. Other NSC staff who participated in the workshops included Kelly Nantel and Julian Hoffman.
At the U.S. Department


reviewer, Zachary Doerzaph, director of the Center for Advanced Automotive Research at the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute, and internal reviewer, Charlene Rohr, contributed many helpful comments to the final report.
Abbreviations
 3HF Three-H


n public roads involving any type of motor vehicle, who died within 30 days of the crash. The National Safety Council and the Centers for Disease Control and Pre- vention (CDC) also publish annual figures but use different definitions that are more i


eaths have increased because of many causes and across demographic groups. Roadway deaths occur among all road users, although some groups are at greater risk than others. About two-thirds of those killed are drivers and passengers in cars and trucks


or teen drivers are higher than for any other age group per mile driven; teen drivers ages 16 to 19 are almost three times more likely than drivers age 20 and up to be in a fatal crash, and the risks are highest at age 16 and 17 (IIHS, 2017b).
• Men


red or distracted. Combined with current vehicle and road
7 Many crashes are considered to have more than one cause (e.g., a driver was both speeding and driving while intoxi- cated), so the numbers in this paragraph do not necessarily equal 100 perc


y 2050
victims who reach the hospital could be prevented if the victims received efficient and effective trauma care from the time of injury to acute care to rehabilitation and beyond (Berwick, Downey, and Cornett, 2016). Reaching a trauma center mor


—not “How else can traffic crashes be reduced?” but “Is it possible to eliminate roadway deaths altogether?”
In 1997, Sweden became the first country in the world to enact a policy called Vision Zero—a formal goal, adopted by the parliament, of reduc


ty planners, traffic engineers, and vehicle designers—responsible for preventing crashes. This approach, often referred to as the Safe System approach, assumes that drivers will still make mistakes but that the road system should be designed in such


nnectedness of vehicles, infrastructure, and vulnerable road users such as pedestrians, bicyclists, motorcyclists, and highway workers may further reduce serious crashes. As these technological improvements become more and more commonplace, and traff


dispatchers
  Data standards adopted
ADAS on majority of vehicles
 Public support for new safety programs increases
    Insurance markets nudge bad drivers to safer vehicles
 37,000+ deaths
Widespread use of automated enforcement
     “Safety in all


to be forgiving so that these mistakes do not lead to fatal outcomes. The Safe System approach also involves commitment to analyze safety problems, identify changes that bring the best return on investment, and implement these improvements throughout


e older—22 percent are over 65, as opposed to 15 percent 35 years ago—and almost 20 percent are immigrants (up from about 13 percent in 2014) (Colby and Ortman, 2015).2
Neither are Americans less mobile, at least overall. In fact, the demand for mobi


 like revolutionary technologies. These technologies include but are not limited to the following:
• Intelligent speed adaption manages vehicle speed, taking into account the presence of people and other vehicles, the design of the road, the surround


ee the pedestrian until it would have been too late, the car brakes in time. Happily, there isn’t another vehicle directly behind—most cars give you a warning sound when you are following too closely. Joe texts city hall the next day to vent about th


ain benefit has been to reduce highway crashes between passing vehi- cles. Rearview cameras allow drivers to see behind them, avoiding crashes due to hitting something behind the car (tragically, sometimes a small child). Rear parking sensors tell dr


es this flow of information from the outside to inform and engage the vehicle’s safety systems and warn drivers of hazards. V2X connectivity is working in tandem with automated driving systems, sharing information about vehicle speeds and directions


ight otherwise have needed assisted living arrangements or depended on younger family members to drive them around. As self-driving cars improved in their abilities to handle bad weather, they became more common in northern cities (when first introdu


eet of automated vehicles, and both require that, to qualify for these plans, members have to be able to get into and out of the car on their own. They have different and more- expensive plans for seniors who need more assistance. Emily signs Jacquel


 lances to make them more crashworthy for both patients and crew members were developed based on specialized crash tests. Ambulance crew members have restraint systems that allow them to perform patient care but survive a crash.
So, a key reason for


nother way cities have made progress is by continuing the work of right-sizing their major streets that was begun in the early 2000s. Cities have converted more streets from two lanes each way without turn lanes to one lane in each direction with tur


g signage designed to break on impact so that cars that collide with it are not seriously damaged. They also use more-consistent traffic control signs and markings so that drivers encounter similar uses regardless of location. Installing rumble strip


g Trauma Care Quickly and More Efficiently
Even with all the changes in vehicles and roads, crashes still happen—2050 saw more than 1 million of them. Crashes are classified broadly into three types: fatal, injury, and property- damage-only (meaning,


with optimal care on scene and prioritized for access to hospitals and selective transpor- tation to trauma centers. While most crashes involve one or two passenger vehicles, standard- ized triage systems have been useful in saving lives in incident


ene before EMS responders arrive. Telemedicine monitoring can assist those at the scene to assess the patient and use the medical devices dropped off by drone.
First responders can also be on the scene more rapidly. Those arriving in ground vehicles


hemselves. As a result of increased data sharing and changes in insurance regulations, insurance premiums are also highly stratified in terms of vehicle safety technologies, offering discounts to car owners with specific safety packages. Most of this


nts.7 This type of bond brings private or philanthropic money to fund government programs—generally focused on prevention—and investors are repaid only if the program outcomes are achieved. Several roads with embedded sensors to aid safety have been


itney services. Some of these changes have been led by immigrant groups who came come from countries where driving is less common and brought their habits with them. Assimilation no longer means buying a car.
For another, individual dependence on pri


heir car as a tool to get from point A to point B. Attitudes about car ownership and driv- ing are more focused on convenience, comfort, efficiency, and safety rather than on power or speed. People still love cars, but they value different features t


hile it didn’t get the same attention as more high-profile causes of death, the mid-2010s saw something of a crisis in roadway deaths: After years of decline, they were going up. The causes were not necessarily clear: There were more miles being driv


), and City Hall, including its office of operations and the community affairs unit.2 Their mandate was for each department to incorporate safety outcomes into its own policies and share results and ideas with other depart- ments. So they attacked a


trol, but fewer than 5 percent had rear parking sensors, automatic emergency braking (AEB), or adaptive headlights.3 Some technologies were still essentially limited to luxury models. Due to a combination of consumer pressure and the desire to show a


fectly legal in one state and illegal when it crossed the state border.
In the late 2010s, a process to allow some exemptions from the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards was developed specifically to spur AV technology while also encouraging
3 Cu


bottom line, since crashes were the leading cause of workplace deaths. They encouraged businesses with their own fleets to upgrade to safer vehi- cles when replacements were needed, or to sign up with car-sharing services with newer fleets. Some flee


that minimized both the probability and impact of crashes. The main focus was on reducing speed in safety-critical locations, which accomplished two things at once: It reduced the chance of a crash taking place, since higher speeds mean that drivers


ift, it obviously did not occur overnight. But the ways that experts think about traffic safety were beginning to change dramatically, and this helped to push along some of the broader changes that took place in the ensuing years.
Years of Rapid Chan


, bike-sharing, and other modes (such as commuter ferries). The mid-sized southern city that pioneered this type of mobility service negotiated to have access to the ride-hailing and bike-sharing data as well, to help with planning efforts. What made


ing. Both public and private organizations had been in the data collection business for years, but often on clunky legacy systems that were incapable of exporting data in formats that would be accessible to other organizations. Thefts of data from la


des- trian deaths were never the largest category of crash fatalities nationally, their sizable increase in the late 2010s, combined with the fact that they were a substantial share of city crash fatali- ties, meant that serious progress was being ma


ave been proven to be safer than turning left directly.11 Other initiatives that began spreading across states included more consistent crash reporting and data sharing between cities and states.
Making these infrastructure changes required additiona


ight of the improved data to better understand problems in design that could be improved upon systemically with retrofits and new design protocols. Those jurisdictions with the resources to do so began to analyze specific crashes in depth, looking fo


nds. When DADSS finally became available for commercial use, auto manufacturers voluntarily agreed to offer it on nearly all models, given their role in its development. Even so, it takes about 25 years for automotive technologies to reach 95 percent


heir market power to exert a certain amount of pressure on AV manufacturers. Around this time, the mobility services themselves also began requiring certain levels of safety in their AV purchases via a set of safety standards that they agreed upon.
W


swering points in a crash. (Previous luxury vehicles had communications with their own services, which could then turn around and call for help if needed; the change here was in eliminating the middleman.) Seeing the potential for this technology to


es control of the bike—he can’t say what happened, just that it seems to have a mind of its own. It bounces off the newly installed median barrier—a huge blessing, since he might have hit the car coming from the opposite direction—and throws him onto


ntos, who had reviewed the ultrasound and scene photos in advance and had advised her team to expect liver lacerations— she was right, and the operating suite was already prepared. Between the immediate crash notification, the fast extrication and tr


ll.
Part of this was that those elected officials who had been early champions of Vision Zero policies began talking more regularly about their successes, and over time this helped to reset the baseline. Individual car crashes had seldom made the new


peeding was especially difficult, because the crackdowns on speeding in both rural and urban areas had led to something of a backlash. Social media was full of complaints that posted speeds were too low and that AVs (which were programmed to keep to


but identifying the best common approaches was challenging given the range of constituents and the rapidly changing technologies. Once there was agreement on the protocols, adoption of the technology accelerated remarkably.
Another bright spot is the


e a public utility model to support delivery of services in sparsely populated areas. People with disabilities also were avid supporters and
early adopters, and the quality of life of many who previously had limited mobility has been enhanced immeasu


king is the availability of funding across departments. After the loosening up of funding provisions in the federal trans- portation authorization bill 30 years ago, those measures have continued to evolve to bring more authority to the states to mak


onversations between stakeholders, facilitating public-private cooperation, and supporting research.
• Provide leadership that prioritizes achieving zero roadway fatalities by 2050.
• Promote and support best practices that reduce roadway fatalities,


sources.
• Incorporate Safe System principles to identify problems, allocate resources and develop
policies, and adjust policies as necessary to accommodate important Safe System changes,
such as adjustments in speed limits.
• Take advantage of evide


y advocate groups working together can play a key role in education and in develop- ing partnerships to bring together groups that will need to cooperate to make progress.
The Road to Zero 47
48
The Road to Zero: A Vision for Achieving Zero Roadway D


Participate with local leaders in supporting the safety initiatives identified in the Toward
Zero Deaths National Strategy and in local Vision Zero efforts.
• Incorporate the latest standardized crash reporting protocols and share data as possible
wi


my versus the desirability of having more effective automatic-
ity in the driving and safety systems of vehicles)
• developing scenarios designed to illuminate alternative courses of actions, consequences,
and bases for policy choices
• the desire to


t Horizon, it too will be unable to retain its full fitness were it not to change as both goals and conditions change.3 But the second process within the 3HF concept is to view the Second Horizon as a zone of conflict that is itself transitory from t


” in the diagram above). ABP then identifies two types of responses to the potential failure of vulnerable and load- bearing assumptions. First, “hedging actions” help ensure against negative consequences when assumptions fail. Second, “shaping actio


ary Workshop: Matching Tools and Actions to Goals
The process began at the RTZ Coalition’s December 15, 2016, meeting with about 150 partici- pants. Focus groups led by RTZ Coalition steering group members proposed actions to reduce roadway deaths in


be inte- grated into a set of broader courses of action (COAs) that could then be assessed, modified, and selected among as principal drivers along the road to zero. The results of the two breakout groups were briefed to the full group of attendees,


kshop was again organized around breakout groups. We assigned participants to specific groups to ensure multiple viewpoints in each group. We asked them to consider each of the five COAs listed above, and to focus the discussion on what must change t


sion
Break
Integrative discussion of breakout group findings
• Areas of Consensus
• Areas of Disagreement
• Most Promising COAs
o Potential impact
o Trade-offs • Uncertainties
Working Lunch
Concluding Session: Characterizing the Road to Zero Discussi


 situation?
• What actions, events, trends might effect a change in these conditions?
Lunch on your own Final breakout sessions
• Prepare summary of contrasts to present to Full Group o Technology/policy area
o Societal conditions
o Actions, events,


sign and management, users, and emer- gency medical response and trauma care.
Adjourn Day 1
65
66 The Road to Zero: A Vision for Achieving Zero Roadway Deaths by 2050
9:00–9:15 am 9:15–10:30 am
10:30–10:45 am 10:45 am–Noon
Noon–1:00 pm 1:00–2:30 pm
2


an Allison Kennedy Kristin Kingsley Rob Strassburger King Gee
Ian Grossman
Kelly Hardy
Jill Ingrassia Jennifer Ryan Judge Earl Penrod Brandon Buchanan Andrea Eales Bradley Sant Roger Wentz
Mike Cammisa Abigail Potter Marianne Karth Nathan George Erin


enter for Injury Research KidsAndCars.org
Lyft
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Mothers Against Drunk Driving (MADD)
Mobileye
Motor and Equipment Manufacturers Association Motor and Equipment Manufacturers Association Motorcycle Safety Foundatio


rauma Systems to Achieve Zero Preventable Deaths After Injury, Washington, D.C.: National Academies Press, 2016.
Blincoe, Lawrence, Ted R. Miller, Eduard Zaloshnja, and Bruce A. Lawrence, The Economic and Societal Impact of Motor Vehicle Crashes, 201


ewar, James A., Assumption Based Planning, Oxford University Press, 2002.
Disley, Emma, Chris Giacomantonio, Kristy Kruithof, and Megan Sim, The Payment by Results Social Impact Bond Pilot at HMP Peterborough: Final Process Evaluation Report, London:


March 9, 2018: http://www.iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/teenagers/fatalityfacts/teenagers#Population-and-mileage-rates
Jackson, Molly, “Volvo’s 2020 Pledge: No One Will Die in Our Cars,” Christian Science Monitor, January 21, 2016.
Kahane, Charles J., Lives


16 Fatal Motor Vehicle Crashes: Overview, Washington, D.C., DOT HS 812 456, October 2017c. As of October 11, 2017:
https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812456
———, Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities for the Firs


14. As of March 9, 2018:
http://www.towardzerodeaths.org/wp-content/uploads/TZD_Strategy_12_1_2014.pdf
Transport and Infrastructure Senior Officials’ Committee (Australia), National Road Safety Strategy 2011– 2020: Implementation Status Report, Canbe


   THE ROAD TO
ZER0
 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
          Liisa Ecola
  Steven W. Popper
Richard Silberglitt
Laura Fraade-Blanar
 Prepared for
   CORPORATION
       For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2333z1
Published by the RAND


ed above, in addition to local, state, and federal elected officials with responsibility for traffic safety.
The research reported here was conducted in the RAND Science, Technology, and Policy program, which focuses primarily on the role of scientif


cars now brake automatically, warn drivers about objects
in their blind spots, park themselves, adjust their speed, and stay in their lanes. While crashes still happen, there are many fewer of them.
In 2050, those crashes are less severe, in part bec


drivers. Some cities and companies that manage a variety of mobility options through a single account—“mobility services”—have made it easy to get around without having to drive, and they have been early adopters of advanced safety technology.
A wide


consider- able. In 2010, it was estimated that crashes cost the U.S economy roughly $835 billion, and there were 15,000 crashes per day. Now, 40 years later, police and emergency responders can shift attention to other needs, states and insurance com


n its
crash death rates of 50 percent
or more, using the Safe System
approach. A number of U.S.
states and cities have also embraced this Vision Zero strategy.
While it will take a generation, the success of other countries and some U.S. cities demon


2016 than in 2011, 1,500 were pedestrians. In 2015, pedestrian deaths accounted for 15 percent of all traffic fatalities, and about three-quarters of pedestrian deaths occurred in urban areas.
*SOURCES: Older teen/young adult crashes: Centers for Dis


Another factor involves the ways in which roads are designed and constructed to increase road safety. In more-rural areas, these include designs for roadsides that reduce the number of obstacles that cars could strike if they run off the roads, pavem


n Sweden
in the 1990s and began spreading to the United States a decade later. Vision Zero begins with a commitment to focus on the changes necessary to eliminate roadway deaths rather than being satisfied with incremental progress, and goes on to in


on is a powerful force for change.
The National Safety Council commissioned the RAND Corporation to develop a process for the RTZ Coalition to create an overall vision and strategy to reach zero deaths. The process includ- ed convening three intensiv


h change.
2. Accelerate Advanced Technology.
Existing and emerging technologies promise large advances in safety. ADAS—such as auto- matic emergency braking, adaptive cruise con- trol, and lane-keeping—are already being intro- duced into the fleet. E


support for new safety programs increases
    Insurance markets nudge bad drivers to safer vehicles
 37,000+ deaths
           “Safety in all policies” approach spreads
  Deployment of advanced vehicle technologies expands
   TODAY 2025
2030
Traffic


rural areas.
Explore opportunities to align safety and research and development funding with state and local needs and improve return on investment.
Partner with industry and other stakeholders to develop platforms and systems to collect and analyze


Work with local and state governments to prioritize trauma system investments and improve trauma care.
Participate in forums about data and emergency communications. Adopt national trauma triage criteria for crash victims.
Collaborate with government


utomobile Association
John Bozzella and Paul Scullion, Association of Global Automakers, Inc.
Collin Mooney and Adrienne Gildea, Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance
Jonathan Adkins and Russ Martin, Governors Highway Safety Association
Jeffrey Paniati


   CORPORATION
Identifying Law Enforcement Needs for Access to Digital Evidence in Remote Data Centers
Michael J. D. Vermeer, Dulani Woods, Brian A. Jackson
Law enforcement increasingly needs to have access to data residing in remote data centers, an


pective and improving cooperation.
• Highly ranked needs also included better investigator access to information and training on requesting remote digital evidence. Several needs recommended creating databases and portals from which practitioners cou


e in a format that is unreadable without special software, further delaying the investigative process while the officer attempts to find the information needed for the investigation. Several months have passed since the murder.
In another example, co


tions of files on its cloud servers in various places, including in other countries. In this case, it unsuccessfully argued that, because portions of these files resided in other countries, it could not be compelled with a war- rant to produce the re


ategory of data
under discussion has a much broader scope than merely cloud services. Remotely held digital evidence, for the purposes of this report, comprises any digital information owned, used, or pertaining to an individual that is stored or mai


riber; law enforcement; and, in some circumstances, even the provider from having concrete infor- mation on the physical location of stored information.
The nature of remote storage has implications for law enforcement investigations that have need o


 of critical importance for digital evidence held in remote data centers.
The ECPA was enacted in 1986 to address issues related
to computing technologies that were not covered under the Wiretap Act, and it remains the most relevant statute concern-


held by an ECS for 180 days or less always require a warrant for access. According to the statute, if a record has been held in storage by an ECS for more than 180 days or if it is held by an RCS, content information may be obtained with a court orde


t Ireland case, with arguments over whether the territorial warrant authority is based on the location of the provider or the location of the data.
5
  6
Table 1. Legal Process Required Under the SCA for Various Records
Content record with RCS Warran


ency of data requests and the accom- panying burden for all parties involved. State and local law enforcement increasingly see the need to obtain data and digital evidence held extraterritorially or by transnational companies in their investigations


eptions for compelled disclosure of electronic records for modern technologies in the SCA are ambiguous and outdated.
As mentioned above, the SCA specifies different protec- tions afforded to a record based on a few defined distinc- tions. It defines


rial action with regard to such data (Daskal, 2015; Woods, 2016).
In addition to struggling with new issues of data territo- riality, the law also creates distinctions that were clear at the time of its writing but have since been blurred by new tech


ct’s identity to the actions taken and the devices used. Data and devices that are distributed over geographic areas will have different time zones associated with them and put their own time stamps on the data in their logs. When the locations are n


pace, it could be challenging to uniquely attribute some data or activity to the suspect in question or prove that their data were not tampered with. Moreover, seizing the physical storage medium on which multiple users—most of whom are not involved


ces local crime investigations into the realm of international affairs, as investigators must use the MLAT process to acquire extrater- ritorial data. In most cases, the MLAT process is cumbersome, placing a significant burden on both law enforcement


comity insofar as it provides a perceived rationale for extraterritorial application of national laws both within the United States and without.6 In addition to the specter of conflicting international legal obligations on provid- ers, such extrater


 that are difficult to understand or comply with because
of law enforcement’s inexperience or ignorance of their pro- prietary service architecture. Because of the complicated way providers may use or store data, compliance is likely to involve much


equests. Nontechnical barriers are also encountered by law enforcement when issuing requests, including
• erratic intake of court orders and subpoenas
• delayed or unpredictable responses
• inaccurate, incomprehensible, or imprecise responses
• prohi


e—may have an inherent tendency toward becom- ing adversarial rather than cooperative. Surveys show that the public is increasingly concerned with how corporations handle
11
  12
their data (Microsoft Corporation, 2013; Rainie and Duggan, 2015) and t


subpoena power, such that it must be limited to a single account or individual per subpoena, with any broader request requiring a court order. Cumulatively, these changes would create uniform standards that eliminate many of the ambiguities, includi


r maintained by a provider. The act also would have included reforms to the MLA process intended to better track and expedite the process, including the creation of a publicly available MLAT request form and an online docketing system for requests. I


he workshop was to bring together a diverse group of experts and practitioners to discuss issues related to digital evidence held in remote data centers for the purpose of identifying both problems and potential solutions. We provide a general descri


the results and priorities gleaned from the pre- workshop questionnaire. For each of the subjects under discus- sion, participants were asked to consider the issue with the objective of identifying any problems, opportunities, or needs in three cate


rrant), insufficient training or access to knowledge or procedure, and the need for better interagency coordination and cooperation. One law enforcement partici- pant also asserted that officers “want to know the process and will follow it, but they


 such a site could be incentivized to become a platform for information like this.
There was also discussion around the idea that the lack of clarity in the law may sometimes lead to an unstated assump- tion that all extant data relevant to an invest


t with requesting evidence and data.
• Develop an online repository (i.e., a clearinghouse) for best prac- tices in making digital evidence requests.
• Conduct research on model statutes that could improve the proce- dures for serving and responding


er and easier. Participants expressed a desire for the modernization and standardization of privacy law and procedures and suggested legislative solutions to some of the problems. One participant spoke optimistically about leg- islation like the ICPA


e partici- pant stated that providers often fail to recognize search warrants from other states and try to require that the warrant come from an agency that is local to them.
Another participant suggested that some providers may intentionally obfusca


the participants. One participant later flatly commented, “there should not be financial incentives for complying with a court order.” Another noted that providers can already seek reim- bursement for compliance, but many do not because of public pre


ovider, especially given the observed lack of sufficient communica-
tion or coordination. One participant asserted that “there is
no way to guarantee the trustworthiness of data preserved and delivered by a service provider.” Another stated the probl


ge of information that should legiti- mately be provided in response to legal process.
Develop a “standard” for law enforcement requests to industry for user data.
Develop a catalog of existing industry practices (as a means of informing investigator


ganizational architecture and the implications for U.S. and foreign jurisdiction.
20
 Cyber investigations, cybercrime, and crimes primarily involving digital evidence can easily span the globe. Many such crimes cannot be investigated purely with loc


particularly time consuming and what can be done to increase efficiency. A participant later sug- gested potential options: “Is it review within the U.S. govern- ment? DOJ? [U.S. Department of] State? Or is it the process within the courts? Could yo


emote government databases. Participants noted that law enforcement consistently lacks access and connectivity to other U.S. federal repositories of digital evidence, including databases for latent fingerprints and facial recognition.
The FBI maintai


dard that needs to be met and the process for making the request.
Foreign legal liaisons assigned to the United States on behalf of their countries often appear to be insufficiently informed about the basics of the U.S. legal system.
• Ask relevant e


 major concern for many of the attendees. It was a backdrop to many of the discus- sions, as a negative outcome that could become a problem if
12 It should also be noted that data originating from any devices, including IoT devices, in places with a


o help and as very easy to accomplish. Participant com- ments noted that miscommunication or lack of communication
  Table 5. Needs Related to Technical Issues
The methodologies for acquiring evidence are constantly evolving.
Agencies are under strai


his, some participants were skeptical about sharing information from providers where pro- prietary data may be involved because providers would likely push back, decreasing the chance of success. Indeed, concerns about resistance from providers in si


 identify which data are being retained and the appropriate point of contact to serve legal process.
There are a variety of app ecosystems that maintain data, but in these cases, it is much harder to identify the point of contact to serve legal proce


number of cybercrimes cannot effectively be investigated using local resources (e.g., ransomware attacks).
The requests made by law enforcement are often difficult or impossible for data custodians (i.e., providers) to comply with.
Foreign legal liai


dards for data retention.
Even when the investigators follow the appropriate processes, they might still have difficulty obtaining the data that they requested and have the authority to obtain.
It is difficult to make contact with experienced investi


it or verify that the evidence provided is, in fact, an accurate extraction of the relevant information in the providers’ systems.
• Conduct research and interviews with CJIS and FEDRAMP certifiers to explore their willingness to also examine the pro


process. Laws made before the rise of the modern global internet present practitio- ners with ambiguity on the appropriate means of serving legal process and uncertainty on the authority to request data. Even when data reside within the United State


ers with a common picture of what is required in serving and com- plying with legal process. It would clarify the expectations of law enforcement and providers, remove ambiguity about the appropriate process or response, and mitigate investiga- tive


knowl- edgeable individuals identified through existing professional and social networks (e.g., LinkedIn) and by reviewing literature published on the topic. At the time of the invitation, panelists were provided with a brief description of the work


were converted into a web-based Delphi instrument (using the Qualtrics service).
Using the instrument, each panelist was asked to individu- ally score each issue and its associated need using a 1–9 scale for the following dimensions: (1) importance o


ne questions were not presented to the respondents during the in-room session. To address this, a Delphi instrument containing the missing questions was emailed to the par- ticipants after the workshop. Approximately half of them responded, and their


ly, the algorithm that was selected was the “ward.D” spherical algorithm from the “stats” library in the R statistical package, version 3.4.1. We prefer it for this purpose to minimize within-cluster variance when determining
Number of needs
   Tier


ence from Cloud Computing Environments,” in Keyun Ruan, ed., Cybercrime and Cloud Forensics: Applications for Investigation Processes, IGI Global, 2013, pp. 156–185.
Dykstra, Josiah, and Alan T. Sherman, “Acquiring Forensic Evidence from Infrastructu


ole J. Johnson, Fostering Innovation in the U.S. Court System: Identifying High-Priority Technology and Other Needs for Improving Court Operations and Outcomes, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, RR-1255-NIJ, 2016. As of December 12, 2016: http:


archives/opa/blog-entry/file/937001/ download
Search.org, homepage, undated. As of March 15, 2018: http://www.search.org/
Taylor, M., J. Haggerty, D. Gresty, and R. Hegarty, “Digital Evidence in Cloud Computing Systems,” Computer Law & Security Revie


nt-surveillance-of-users.html
Zawoad, Shams, and Ragib Hasan, “Digital Forensics in the Cloud,” Crosstalk, September/October 2013. As of February 21, 2018: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.433.8211&r ep=rep1&type=pdf
35
Acknow


ute’s Farming Systems Trial. He began his career as a Coast Guard officer on afloat and ashore assignments in Miami, Fla.; New London, Conn.; and Baltimore, Md.
Brian Jackson is a senior physical scientist at the RAND Corporation. His research focuse


rporation
www.rand.org
The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonparti


  CORPORATION
Medical Care Provided
to California’s Injured
Workers
Monitoring System Performance Using Administrative Data
Barbara O. Wynn, Andrew W. Mulcahy, Hangsheng Liu, Rosalie Malsberger, Edward N. Okeke
For more information on this publicatio


mproving policy- and decisionmaking in a wide range of policy domains, including civil and criminal justice, infrastructure protection and homeland security, transportation and energy policy, and environmental and natural resource policy.
This report


.1. Change in Number of Evaluations Relative to 2007, by Medical-Legal Code ........ 103 Figure 8.2. Average Number of Units per Evaluation, by Medical-Legal Code ........................ 105 Figure 8.3. Percentage of Claims by Injury Year with Medic


Internal Medicine Participation Rate by HRR, Based on Primary
Specialty Reported and NPPES Data.................................................................................. 140 Figure C.7. General Surgery Participation Rate by HRR, Based on Prim


djustment Factors for Post-2007 Injuries Relative to Spending for 2007 Injuries............. 25
Table 3.9. Change in Service Year Spending Explained by Changes in Injury Mix
Holding All Other Factors Constant .........................................


rnia WC losses and expenses and three-year moving average of insured market share calculated from first report of injury (FROI) claim counts downloaded from the WCIS website as of January 11, 2017.
  xiv
factors and the actual changes in spending lev


1). A major driver in the spending growth was payments to individuals, which increased 139.2 percent. This expense category includes future medical expense settlement amounts, transportation costs, and
2 The Division of Workers’ Compensation (DWC) es


vices, and drugs in the first 12 months following injury. Key findings by type of service include the following:
• Per-claim spending within 12 months of injury on both inpatient hospital stays and outpatient (hospital and ambulatory surgery center [


California’s WC program. For example, the medical treatment guidelines do not recommend use of imaging within the first 28 days unless there are red flags or imaging is otherwise needed for medical management. With the exception of uncomplicated low


ce payments for similar services, and potential market power of WC medical provider networks (MPNs) as reflected in fee discounting prior to the implementation of a new resource-based relative value scale (RBRVS) fee schedule.
Provider Participation


proportion of the allowed amount that was actually paid prior to implementation of the RBRVS. For this analysis we focused on outpatient nonfacility physician services only. Our estimates are for overall discount rates because data limitations precl


ast—the NPI for the provider furnishing each service and an identifier for each MPN—became mandatory with the implementation of WCIS version 2.0 for medical data effective April 6, 2016. Assuming that
the new reporting requirements are enforced, the


nt of Industrial Relations, and by Irina Nemirovsky in her role as the contracting officer’s representative. We would also like to acknowledge the valuable assistance received from current Division of Workers’ Compensation staff, including George Par


erspective
Workers’ compensation (WC) provides medical care and indemnity (i.e., wage replacement) benefits to employees with work-related injuries and illness. It is a mandatory “no-fault” system in which benefits are paid by the employer without th


 Sengupta,
Reno, and Burton, 2010; Sengupta, Baldwin, and Reno, 2014; Baldwin and McLaren, 2016.
The medical spending experience in California is characterized by three periods: (1) steep medical spending increases in the early 2000s, (2) steep decli


to injured workers.4 The data available for this study predate the implementation of the SB 863 provisions beginning in 2013. RAND is performing a separate evaluation of the impact of the SB 863 medical treatment provisions that will draw on post–SB


by conducting in-depth analyses of selected issues affecting system performance. We develop additional measures related to physician participation in the WC medical care system that provide a potential baseline for assessing the impact of implementi


for adjustments between the billed charges and paid amounts.
Even though the WCIS is the best data available, it has limitations. Not all WC claims are reported into the system, and among reported claims there is further underreporting of medical bil


ceived the payment. For example, payments for physician-dispensed pharmaceuticals, supplies, and equipment are included in the WCIRB physician payments but are not captured in our WCIS physician file; instead, our file includes only drugs that are ph


2010
2011
2012
  SOURCES: RAND Analysis of First Report Claims Counts (WCIRB Summary of Policy Year Statistics, various years); WCIS compensable insured claim counts (DWC, 2016b).
8 percent higher in 2007, 15 percent higher in 2008, and 3–6 percent h


11
3. Decomposing Spending Trends Introduction
While the impact of medical spending growth on employers, on insurers, and on the stability of the entire WC system is clear, the drivers of WC medical spending growth are not as well understood. This c


y reflects the mix of services provided. While prices and volumes are amenable to measurement, intensity is more difficult to quantify.1
Finally, our framework accounts for the injury year composition of medical spending in each calendar year. In any


he duration over which medical expenses are incurred for an injury. In Chapter Four we explore utilization and cost trends that inform the causes for the residual.
We considered whether to include changes in injury type (medical only, temporary indem


alifornia WC spending for medical services (Table 3.1) on WCIRB annual reports on California WC losses and expenses that are released in June (WCIRB, 2008–2013). We found that the reported medical spending for a given year sometimes changes between t


es in the prices paid for medical care. California WC medical spending data reported in Table 3.1 are in nominal terms; they do not reflect “real” changes in prices over time (which account for price inflation/deflation). The main disadvantage of nom


r inflation factor
for pharmaceuticals by equally weighting the annual changes in the producer price index for pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing and for pharmacies and drug stores.
Payments to individuals include future medical expense settle


 to calculate an overall price index accordingly.
 17
The WCIRB claim counts are for insured claims only and are by policy year rather than injury year. The policy year may overlap calendar years (e.g., the policy may cover injuries occurring on or a


007 levels in subsequent years and overstates the proportion of the spending attributable to inflation because it does not account for the reduction in the number of WC claims in 2008 and later years.
Residual changes in medical spending. As noted ab


dual in total medical spending, and so the results should be interpreted with caution. In the aggregate, 2012 spending was 30.2 percent higher than 2007 levels, while the expected changes in aggregate spending in each year are negligible relative to


 WC Claims
This section explores trends in the incidence of new WC claims. Changes in the number of new WC claims during a calendar year are a function of changes in the number of full-time employees and the incidence rate for WC claims. The latter i


ed spending for post-2007 injury years. Before adjustment, the framework assumes that projected spending for post-2007 injuries would be the same as real spending for 2007 injuries at the same maturity level. Using the adjustment factors in Table 3.6


ed fairly stable from 2007 to 2014 (Figure 3.1). The largest category
of injuries—strains and tears—increased from 29 percent in the 2007 WCIS claims data to
34 percent in the 2012 data. The shares of other high-volume types of injuries changed less


le 3.9. Change in Service Year Holding All
Spending Explained by Changes in Injury Mix Other Factors Constant
            Impact ($millions)
Adjustment factor applicable to service year spending for injury years 2008 and later
2008 2009 2010
2.9 10.1


ding: total
Injury year 2007 and earlier
Injury year 2008–2012
Total spending change relative to 2007
Cost driver contribution: total
Injury year 2007 and earlier (inflation only)
Injury year 2008–2012 (inflation, claims, injury mix)
Residual change


, our estimates of spending for 2007 injuries in subsequent years will be overstated and will affect our measure of changes in injury mix.
• We were unable to reliably identify the type of claim in the WCIS medical data (medical only, temporary indem


he effect of the three cost drivers on medical service spending. For service year 2012, we estimated the following for these claims:
- Inflation increased spending 8.8 percent relative to 2007 levels.
- Changes in the number of new WC claims rates fo


es in the type of services and in the volume and mix of services within service categories, and to changes in payment levels for those services. We examine costs and utilization by types of injuries and payers, and in doing so provide a foundation fo


ver, we found that MPN status was not reliably reported in the WCIS data. As a proxy for MPN care, we constructed measures that examined claims by the proportion of care that was provided under contract, but found that the overall proportion of contr


en year that had an inpatient hospitalization) and produces a per-user measure that is conditional on the claimant using the relevant service one or more times.
Claim Characteristics
Type of injury: Because overall measures across the injury years ar


ofessional codes follow the Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) code categories. For example, the medicine category (CPT codes 90291-99607) includes a broad array of services, such as different types of nonradiologic diagnostic tests, physical thera


ury, which are substantially lower than the number of total compensable claims (Table 2.4).
34
Utilization
We found that utilization measured in volume of services per injury during the first 12 months following the date of injury increased over time


0% 2007
2008 2009
2010
2011 2012
Medicine Surgery
                                                                                Drugs Laboratory/Pathology Outpatient Facility Services
Evaluation and manag


k injuries, and 89 percent for all injuries.
38
Type of Payer
Between 70 and 80 percent of claims across injury years are submitted to WCIS for insured claims—the remainder is for claims from the State of California and self-insured public and privat


in regions with large numbers of WC claims—the Los Angeles, Bay Area, Inland Empire, Central Valley, and San Diego regions—can drive the statewide trend. Table 4.3 reports changes in average per-injury utilization in different service categories wit


 Central Sierra
Valley Foothills
 –13        3
  21       29
  35       47
 104       85
  17       25
  21       34
  –2       –5
–33 –3
Inland Empire
 –10
  23
  26
 115
  16
  18
 –11
–36
North Los State– Angeles Shasta
–19 –24 17 19 20 23 88 59
8


2.
injury, an increase in the number of laboratory services they received, or a change in the mix of services rather than changes in fees.
When we examined laboratory/pathology services by CPT classifications, we found that seven categories of tests


 fee schedule beyond the change in the OMFS conversion factor may have contributed to the increase.
To the extent surgical services shifted from inpatient to outpatient facility settings, we would expect to see an increase in both utilization and spe


s for surgical services were predominantly for musculoskeletal (58 percent) and spinal (12 percent) procedures. A mix of other types of procedures accounted for the remaining 30 percent of surgical procedures. Spinal procedure volume grew 19 percent


scriptions for NSAIDs during the first 12 months postinjury is higher and
the proportion for opioids is lower. Another RAND study found that 26 percent of outpatient prescriptions dispensed to all injured workers in 2013 were for opioids compared to


 agents (213 percent), and compound drugs
(53 percent). For reference, we estimate the inflation increase in drug prices was 11.6 percent (Table 3.4). Increases in both the average number of prescriptions and the average payment per prescription resu


rst 12 Months Postinjury by Type of Injury
   Type of Injury Category
Low back pain
Upper back and neck injuries
Shoulder injuries Knee injuries
All injuries
2007 ($)
2,472
2,231 3,288 3,396 1,994
2008 ($)
2,609
2,309 3,407 3,567 2,145
2009 ($)
2,988


injury from 2007 to 2012, the magnitude of the change varied across regions from a 21 percent increase in the North State–Shasta region to a 48 percent increase in the Eastern Sierra Foothills region (Figure 4.17). Regions with high claim volume—such


ths   Closed 24-36 mths Closed 36-48 mths   Closed 48-60 mths
      Work Outcomes
We used EDD data to track the proportion of injured workers who were still employed at the first eight calendar quarters after injury. The proportion of workers—injured


he WCIS. Our data file was created in August 2016. While we believe that our WCIS study data are nearly complete, we may be missing some services delivered to workers injured in 2012, and claim counts for the medical data may change. The result would


higher than that for injury year 2007. This suggests an increase in the intensity of the services. Spending for inpatient services may also have been affected by the pass-through payments for spinal hardware.
- Utilization and spending for laboratory


nical performance using administrative data (Wynn, Timbie, and Sorbero, 2011). The framework anticipates that the clinical measures address an area that affects the health of injured workers or the cost of care and for which performance is known to b


, or neck/upper back
diagnosis
Numerator: Claimants in the denominator condition who did not receive either physical therapy or chiropractor services or injectable analgesic care within 60 days preceding the MRI, or an evaluation & management service


 2008
2009 2010 2011 2012
Injury year
63
back pain (42 percent versus 19 percent) and increases to a high of 51 percent in 2009 before beginning to decline slightly in subsequent years. The imaging use measure for shoulders is much lower (6 percent i


 than for TENS/PENS and nearly all utilization review denials are upheld. The uphold rate for TENS is 91 percent (RAND analysis of independent medical review decisions posted on the DWC website as of February 28, 2017).
 64
 Percentage of low back pa


rmance on the imaging and opioid measures across the subcategories of claim characteristics are difficult to explain. In addition to measuring system performance, the indicators could be used to drill down to identify any aberrant practice patterns t


eir PCP will remain with that provider. Provider “churn,” when an injured worker sees multiple PCPs within the first 12 months, could be indicative of worker dissatisfaction with care or difficulty seeing a preferred provider. However, it could also


bset to services with an HCPCS code in the E&M range (99201-99215 and 99241-99245) and a type of service classified as E&M or outpatient facility service, and with a provider primary billing specialty of multispecialty group practice, family medicine


-PCP. In sum, more than four in five injured workers had an initial E&M visit in an ambulatory setting. While the ED is an expected first encounter for some severe or otherwise acute injuries, relatively few injured workers—
9 percent—had an initial


jury on the right axis. Both measures increase in magnitude from 2011 to 2012, although the relative increases are small—about 3 percentage points in both cases.
71
Table 6.1. Days from Injury to First Nonemergency E&M Visit, by Injury Year and Type


encounters in the medical data is critical to the access measure results and interpretation. The high volume of therapy and physician non-E&M visits (such as radiology) that are the first encounters in the WCIS medical data suggest that some initial


significant gaps between injury and initial care— reflect data reporting issues, the increase in cumulative trauma injuries, or potential access issues. The type of first encounter analysis also suggests that further investigation is needed of the in


proportion of active community physicians in California who treat WC patients. Our analysis mainly focused on the physician specialties that were most frequently reported in the WCIS data. Provider participation rates are one measure of the extent t


their group practice. In 2013, nationally, 139 group practices of 25 or more eligible professionals participated in these programs and reported data.
The SK&A office-based physician database (SK&A data) is compiled by SK&A, a health care marketing co


 9/14
MBC
Yes
No
Multiple
Yes for 90% who responded to survey
No No
Yes for 90% who responded to survey
9/14
ARF
No
Yes
Primary
Primary but may not be current
No Yes
Yes 2013
     Table 7.2. Comparison of Aggregate Physician Counts Using Alternative


least one bill in WCIS. To further refine the universe of active physicians and participating physicians, we merged individual physicians in WCIS with those in NPPES based on NPIs. Less than 2 percent (1.89 percent) of WCIS individual providers did


bust to other approaches. First, because some bills were submitted by providers using a group NPI in WCIS in 2012, we included all the individual providers practicing in these groups and assumed they served WC patients. After standardizing practice l


about one-quarter of physicians participated in WC in 2012. However, participation rates vary significantly across specialties. For example, the participation rate was more than two-thirds for orthopedic surgery, general practice, occupational medici


 47.8 percent, respectively, whereas San Diego and San Mateo had the lowest participation rates, 21.8 percent and
28.3 percent, respectively. If we assume that all the individual providers in a group that submitted a bill in 2012 served WC patients,


he payments for out-of-network services are often much higher and do not necessarily reflect market rates.
                            86
Analytic Approach
Data
We used the 2011 WCIS data (see Chapter Two for a detailed description) to estimate maxim


 adjustment factor.
 87
furnished on the same date for the same patient by the same physician. We excluded procedures from the market basket that do not have RVUs (e.g., are priced individually based on the physician’s report) or are not covered by t


fer between RBRVS and commercial insurance; including them in the analysis would distort the average allowed amount.
 88
variation in payment levels across geographic areas. Figure 7.5 shows the commercial to RBRVS payment ratios by locality. There w


ian expenditures. Of note, office visits account for the largest proportion of all
WC physician expenditures, 40.5 percent. All other services represent less than 7 percent of physician expenditures.
 90
Figure 7.7. Commercial/RBRVS Payment Ratio by


tem and computed the total actual payments and total allowed amounts by multiplying the unit allowance by the number of units reported for the line item. We excluded all anesthesia service line items because we were not able to quantify the number of


ts.
When interpreting physician participation rates, a small universe of potential physicians could make some rates unreliable. In selecting the commonly reported specialties, we required at
95
least 100 physicians in the NPPES for the specialty. But


f the state. FAIR Health data are collected from participating insurers, whose prices may not reflect the average payment of the selected basket of services in California. The payment ratios could be either over- or underestimated.
96
Fee Discounting


rs likely underestimates participation rates.
Our results are robust to several sensitivity analyses. The patterns of participation across specialties in the sensitivity analyses are very similar to those in the main analysis, although participation


f SB 863 reform, a new RBRVS fee schedule has been established for provider services. Our analysis could serve as background and a baseline comparison for future studies on the impact of SB 863 on fee discounting. The implementation of SB 863 has als


st medical-legal evaluations during 2007–2012 involved at least one work- related issue and may have also involved one or more medical necessity disputes.
QMEs are licensed allopathic or osteopathic physicians, chiropractors, psychologists, dentists,


se modifiers and their effects. For example, the fee schedule maximum allowable amount for an evaluation performed by an AME is 25 percent higher than the allowable amount when a QME or primary treating physician performs the evaluation. The effect o


orkers who are performing medical-legal services. We found that we were unable to do so using the WCIS data because a substantial proportion of medical-legal services are billed under an organizational identification number rather than the unique NPI


 of units billed for ML104 increased from 30.6 to 45.0, which represents an increase of 216 minutes or more than 3.5 hours in the average length of time reported to conduct an examination.
104
Figure 8.2. Average Number of Units per Evaluation, by Me


following the date of injury. Providers are most likely to bill for medical- legal services between 12 and 24 months after injury. This pattern has remained relatively constant across injury years. The percentage of claims with medical-legal codes in


multispecialty group practice or legal medicine, or use a general code such as “allopathic and osteopathic physician” or “specialist.” These taxonomies are included in the “other specialty” category in the figures that follow, along with unspecified


eded only by physicians in family medicine and general practice (74 percent increase) and chiropractors (72 percent increase). Orthopedic surgeons and other surgeons bill on average fewer units per medical-legal service, which accounts for their rela


gure 8.9. Average Units per Evaluation by Region, Service Years 2007 and 2012
Figure 8.10. Average Payment per Medical-Legal Service by Region, Service Years 2007 and 2012
  113
Other Services
In addition to performing the medical-legal evaluation, p


)
Other E&M Services
Central Nervous System Assessments/Tests
Neurology and Neuromuscular Procedures
Cardiovascular Monitoring
Pulmonary Diagnostic Testing and Therapies
Lab/Pathology 2.4
Service Category
Modifier
9.4 0.0 0.6 3.1 5.7 4.9 1.8 1.6 1.2


hose reported using the generalist MD/DO code. The latter assumes that the actual distribution of the medical-legal evaluations reported as “general practice” is similar to the distribution of the reported specialties. We created unduplicated counts


were billed based on 15-minute increments and in the average number of units billed per evaluation. In addition, there is a steady increase in the percentage of claims with medical-legal codes within the first 36 months following dates of injury. The


supplementing the WCIS with external data. Because of underreporting on indemnity data, our decomposition of the spending increases was limited by not being able to identify injured workers who received temporary or permanent disability payments.
Oth


g to comply with WCIS data reporting requirements in 2011. Regulations were proposed in 2013 to implement the financial penalties but were not finalized. SB 1160 (Mendoza) amended the penalties in Labor Code section 138.6 that may be assessed against


ation)
    120
B. Estimated Impact of Changes in New Claims Using WCIS Counts Compared with Systemwide Estimates Derived from SOII and WCIRB Counts
A key cost driver in our analyses decomposing spending trends is the change in the incidence of new WC


r-Lower Extremity StrainTear-Upper Extremity StrainTear-Trunk
StrainTear-Multiple
StrainTear-Other 1,175 All Other Claims 336,750 All 2007 Claims 477,060
SOURCE: DWC (2016b).
49.1 100.8 136.3
27.1 1.9 659.3 974.6
17.4 11.3 38.0 23.9 67.9 46.6 13.1 9.


subsequent years that account for changes in injury mix. The adjustment factors at 12 months’ maturity increase from 1.003 in 2008 to 1.010 in 2011 and 2012, indicating that changes in injury mix explain less than a 1 percent impact on spending leve


njury years.
To apply the adjustment factors for changes in the incidence of new claims and injury mix, we first stratified service year medical spending by injury year (Table A.6). Each cell in the table shows actual spending in that service year fo


ning some of the residual spending increase. The ultimate (or total) medical losses over the life of a claim are much higher for permanent indemnity claims and temporary disability claims than for medical-only claims. The latter may be closed with mi


of line items reported on laboratory (CPT codes 80047-89398) and radiology (CPT codes 70010-76999) bills since these are often contain “rule out” diagnoses. We counted the number of unique diagnosis codes that were identified as one of the four condi


Medicine
Medicine
Medicine
Medicine Laboratory/Pathology
Level 2 Category
NA
Case Management Services
Consultations
ED Visits
Office Visits
Other
Manipulative Treatment
Neurology Physical Medicine Other
NA
Criteria
One of the following: (a) pharmacy


roupings used in the monitoring tables
Table B.3. Specialty Taxonomy Codes to Create Provider Specialty
  Provider Specialty
Multispecialty group practice Single-specialty group practice Anesthesiology
Orthopedic surgery
Other surgery
Emergency medic


ulder injury categories and dropped the age 18–50 inclusion terms used in the NCQA measure. The shoulder measure includes only CT and MRI procedures, while the measures for the back injury categories also include X-rays. We defined the index date as


of injury that were billed on the same day as an included diagnosis code in Table B.4, and (2) did not have an excluded diagnosis code at any point during the 24-month period. The denominator is the count of all bills for MRIs identified for this po


A claim had PENS if the bills included CPT codes 64553, 64555, 64560, or
 64565, or HCPCS codes L8680-L8688. For the
134
E0720, E0730,
Appendix C: Sensitivity Analyses of Provider Participation Rates for WC Patients
Figure C.1. Physician Participatio


yMeetingPresentationFROI-SROI _Final10182013-1.pdf
———, First Reports of Injury and Subsequent Reports of Injury Update, Oakland, Calif.: Department of Industrial Relations, 2016a. As of July 20, 2017: http://www.dir.ca.gov/dwc/WCIS/AdvisoryMeetingOc


Data Reporting Requirements: Administrative Penalties, Sacramento, Calif.: California State Legislature, 2011. As of February 28, 2017: https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201120120SB826
Senate Bill 1160 (Mendoza): Wo


g Plan—1995: Title 10, California Code of Regulations, Section 2318.6, Effective January 1, 2015.
———, [2007–2012] Report on California Workers’ Compensation Losses and Expenses, 2008–2013. As of July 7, 2017: https://www.wcirb.com/research-and-analy


 Adapting Land Use and Water Management Plans to a Changing Climate in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties, Florida
David G. Groves, Debra Knopman, Neil Berg, Craig A. Bond, James Syme, Robert J. Lempert
 CORPORATION
For more information on this publicat


ic values.
Readers of this report may also be interested in other RAND work on this and related topics:
• Jordan R. Fischbach, Kyle Siler-Evans, Devin Tierney, Michael T. Wilson, Lauren M. Cook, and Linnea Warren May, Robust Stormwater Management in


 . . . . . .
5.12. Value of Vulnerable Assets in UMD for Low SLR and Driest Precipitation
Conditions in the Wet Season Under the Elevation Asset Distribution Method,
2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


hat underlies Southeast Florida and thereby reduce soil storage capacity. If not well planned and coordinated, land use and transportation decisions at the local and regional levels could exacerbate impacts of a changing climate.
Southeast Florida co


 to a changing climate and increased economic growth, followed by an analysis of alternative approaches to land use that could possibly miti- gate at least some of these vulnerabilities.
Planning Goals and Metrics
Discussions with officials in Miami-


bly
running the model in a “batch” mode to simulate many plausible futures
• modify land cover and land use assumptions for alternative scenarios.
Figure S.1 summarizes the relationships among the physical and economic elements of an integrated syste


nland flood and saltwater intrusion risk in the region.
Our interest in developing an integrated modeling framework is to use it to gain insight into the vulnerability of South Florida’s built environment to a range of possible future climate conditi


nly a few areas currently experiencing average depths to groundwater less than 1 foot, and areas along UMD’s ridge not exhibiting any vulnerability within the time frame of the analysis.1
• In the future (i.e., 2040 time frame), changes in precipitat


en more extensive interactions with decisionmakers are essential ingredients to any successful long-term planning effort.
The approach to analysis demonstrated in this project shows promise and should be con- tinued and refined. Specifically, improve


e consequences for Southeast Florida, and adaptive measures will be needed to reduce the most serious of these impacts to manageable levels. With a flat topography, low-lying land, and an extensive coast- line, the region will have an increasingly di


ng in a constructive and organized manner to bring available resources to bear on the challenges of SLR and climate change (Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change, 2012). As one example, partner counties and cities in this effort have formally ado


nsequences of constraining choices for neighboring jurisdic- tions. In the absence of mathematical simulation tools of suitable spatial and temporal resolution, these potentially large externalities from disjointed decisionmaking need to be quantifie


ested in demonstrating an analytical framework that enables cities and counties to better manage these kinds of externalities when making their own development decisions and approving permits for individual projects.
Introduction 3
4 Adapting Land Us


is to include economic implications of future flooding using newly developed economic projections of assets. The final analyses were then presented at Miami-Dade County offices in December 2016 and with an updated webinar presentation in May 2017. Ov


e on the model(s) that relate their actions to consequences, the prior prob- ability distributions for key parameters to the models, and the importance of various objectives (Lempert, Norling, et al., 2003; Walker, Haasnoot, and Kwakkel, 2013). Tradi


olders who have differ- ing expectations about the future nonetheless reach consensus on action. In essence, RDM helps plan for the future without first predicting it. RDM has been applied to water resource management (Groves, Lempert, et al., 2008;


e number of cases generated, this step may be done either through case-by-case analysis or through an automated means of identifying the most signifi- cant vulnerabilities. The outcome of the scenario discovery step is generally several scenarios tha


ld be relevant for this project. We subsequently reworked the XLRM matrix for purposes of further discussion and refinement with our partners. The fol- lowing subsections discuss the XLRM matrix used in this analysis (Table 2.1).
Planning Goals and M


g/L) are in violation of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s drinking water standard (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2017). Another common high-salinity threshold used in the region is 1,000 mg/L.
• Asset values at risk to inland ground


 SFWMD (Dessalegne et al. 2016):
• 5th percentile = driest future (63 percent of current annual rainfall)
• 25th percentile = dry future (87 percent of current annual rainfall)
• 50th percentile = average future (109 percent of current annual rainfal


 outputs from the hydrological models.
Each aspect of the integrated modeling framework is discussed in greater detail in the following chapters. Simulation results were used to define the climate risk by comparing the geophysical outcomes to project


d White (2014) simulated UMD groundwater from a baseline period of 1996–2010 compared with a scenario with 30 years of SLR. Hughes, Sifuentes, and White (2016) used the Broward model to exam- ine Broward groundwater changes with SLR out to 2062. Whil


nal water management model, such as SFWMD’s Regional Simulation Model (SFWMD, 2005). Finally, alternative economic futures might be considered.
Approach to Analysis and Decision Support 15
CHAPTER THREE
Integrated Modeling Framework
We coupled two US


 purposes.
 17
18
Adapting Land Use and Water Management Plans to a Changing Climate
•
• • • • • •
The USGS models produce a range of useful outputs:
quantification of changes in groundwater pumping and sea level on canal leakage and groundwater infl


s an active groundwater component. In total, 50,179 grid cells are actively simulated in each of the model’s 12 vertical layers that represent the surficial aquifer. The model operates on a monthly time step and was calibrated to observed groundwater


and expectations) into account. As a consequence, expected damages from future environmental risks would be capitalized into fixed asset values. However, absent additional evidence or assumptions about these responses, we chose a scenario approach to


W source code be included for non-Windows operating systems, which would increase model usage on different platforms, particularly for easier compilations on cloud-based servers.
Lessons Learned
Working with any hydrological model, such as MODFLOW, i


Plausible Future Conditions Affecting Southeast Florida’s Built Environment
The purpose of developing an integrated modeling framework was to use it to gain insight into the vulnerability of Southeast Florida’s built environment to a range of possib


search.
  23
24 Adapting Land Use and Water Management Plans to a Changing Climate
would allow the saltwater-freshwater interface to move inland because of the reduced hydraulic pressure from the landward side. The reverse would happen under conditio


ased on downscaling several GCMs (and in some cases, multiple realizations for a single GCM) evaluated using three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, or RCPs, from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (Stocker et al., 2013). Specifically, the ensemble in


hese economic futures are essentially alternative levels and spatial distributions of current and future property values at risk from inland flooding and SLR (although additional environmental or other random threats could be modeled). We used the ta


raged over the UMD and Broward Model Domains
30
25
20 Monthly rainfall (inches) 15 10
5
0
2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055 Year
RAND RR1932-4.3
     Driest future
Dry future
Average future
Wet future
Wet


ludes 87 current land use descriptions. Miami-Dade’s 2030 CDMP (Miami-Dade County, 2017) uses an additional 25 distinct land use descriptions, and 33 Broward’s 2040 Future Land Use Plan (Broward County
2 In particular, we used the areal interpolation


ty. Moreover, rural development is a new category based on projected growth within the Broward categories of rural estates and rural ranches. Figure 4.5 presents the resulting maps of standardized current and future land use across the two counties.


 $10 billion for the small south-central Broward region to more than $100 billion for the large and heavily populated lower UMD region. For all regions, urban assets account for the vast majority of the value.
Future Land Use and Distribution of Asse


g data from the American Community Survey [U.S. Census Bureau, undated], and current just values). These densities were used to cap development within any particular cell. See Appendix C for details.
Second, grid cells available for residential devel


 units in a spatial manner. The
7 Recall that current and future land use codes are based on the predominant land use category by area. So, for example, residential development in a cell currently classified as water and some future residential categ


ly lower at $4.40 million, or an increase of approxi- mately 17.6 percent. The minimum and maximum cell values were unchanged. Figure 4.9 shows the spatial pattern of the change in value for Broward County. The method distributes population and asset


1
Projected Change in Valuation Under the Equal-Value Elevation Method
 $0M
$50M
Aventura
Miami Beach
Valuation change
 RAND RR1932-4.11
Region
Northwest Broward
North- central Broward
Northeast Broward
Far southwest Broward
Southwest Broward
South-


pulation growth (which was slightly lower, at 10.8 percent, than the 11.4 percent assumed in the other scenarios) and did not fore- cast increased industrial or commercial activity (whose values were assumed to increase at the rate of population grow


dry period and the wet period. We then reported the average depth to groundwater for the wet and dry seasons. These metrics serve as proxies for flooding caused by groundwater reaching the ground surface. Smaller depths indicate proximity to the lan