to reduce income inequality by improving access to higher levels of education and developing a labor force with more-sophisticated skills needed for higher wage work. As the structure of the PRD economy changes, the provincial government should impr


ans- portation costs, many distributors of lower-value goods do not ship goods to other provinces.
Recommended practices: Substandard transportation infrastructure is a major barrier to trade and supply chain efficiency, and hinders the free flow of


Canton Fair (China Import and Export Fair, 2012) to introduce PRD products to domestic buyers. Provincial and municipal govern- ments should also work with local wholesalers, manufacturers, and market support companies to arrange specialized fairs, m


hite House, 2013).
Guangdong and Hong Kong already have some of the elements in place, such as the Green Lane initiative, in which cross-boundary trucks use a dedicated Green Lane and are tracked by an electronic truck surveillance system using GPS a


sinesses within all nonagricultural industries for the 50 states and the District of Columbia (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2014). During the first six months in the sample, respondents are called by interviewers who enter data directly into a co


ce many cities in the PRD region are working toward transitioning their industrial base to less labor- and energy-intensive activity, there may be advantages to the region as a whole to launch joint marketing campaigns rather than compete against one


ms produced graduates with the skills necessary to succeed in the private sector. Such close engagement with employers also increased the value of TESDA certification in the labor market because of its effect on enhancing trust
among employers (INSEA


e 9.1 summarizes the goal, strategies, and indicators for challenge CD1.
Economic Development 131
132 Quality of Life Indicators and Policy Strategies to Advance Sustainability in the Pearl River Delta
Table 9.1
Economic Development Goal, Strategies,


ent about the relative order of impact and degree of difficulty among the economic development strategies. Table E.5 provides the listing of our underlying assessments. We view the reduction of trade barriers and the provision of improved market info


use goals will affect transportation, environmental, housing, and economic development strategies. Strategies, however, have different geographic scope and will need to be customized for the cities, districts, and counties where they will be impleme


tion Environment Housing Development
√√√
√√
√√
√
√
Implementation of the Indicator System and Strategies 137
   Housing
              Economic Development
             √√√√√
 and other key provincial departments, and their counterparts at the city, d


that are more appropriately led at a higher level of government. In Table 10.2, we summarize our recommended roles for each level of government for each of the strategies. For example, the mapping functions in strategies SL1 and SL11–SL13 would be mo


t by providing key infrastructure only in designated areas, consistent with compact development.
SL8: Develop a brownfields program that includes remediation standards and clear roles for various agencies.
SL9: Identify and prioritize buildings and n


facilitates making payments.
ST8: Encourage multiple entrepreneurs to develop mobile apps that provide real-time information on available parking spaces to make finding parking easier and to avoid illegal parking.
ST9: Enforce parking regulations and


ccelerate Guangdong’s phase-out of coal use, Lead Co-lead especially for household heating and industrial use, and
coal-fired power plants serving all PRD cities.
SE9: Accelerate the implementation of green building Lead Co-lead codes and appliance e


Implement and enforce building and amenity standards for all public rental housing units and rental units built by private developers.
Province
Oversight Technical support
Lead
Lead
Oversight Technical support
Lead
Oversight Technical support
Oversig


and less detail on international practices.
With these limitations in mind, we have recommended, in the closing sections of Chap- ters Five through Nine, starting with strategies that are both high impact and relatively easy to implement within each


name a chief information officer (CIO) who would chair a technical group of CIOs and information technology and database systems experts from each of the provincial- level bureaus and mayors’ offices. These technical leads will ensure smooth, timely


sment of data availability for the indicators falls into one of four categories:
1. Objective indicators (not from GIS): These data already exist and are available in the required format.
2. Objective indicators available in GIS: These data exist in


ion software platform. Such a platform will enable easy dis- play and comparison of indicators using graphics rather than tabular data. Visualizations also will enable efficient analysis of patterns and trends in the data, permit the quick building o


d and goals consistent with meeting those challenges. In some cases, national, provincial, and municipal leaders had already set appropriate goals. In other cases, we proposed statements of goals that were consistent with the mutually agreed on chall


alties are too low, business owners or land developers often find that it is more profitable to pay those fines (if noncompliance is even detected) than paying the costs for pollution control or affordable housing built to standards. The equation for


progress toward meeting challenges facing the PRD region and a reliable and trusted means of demonstrating that policy strategies are contributing to achieve- ment of Guangdong’s long-term goals of a better life for all residents.
APPENDIX A
Pingshan


 planning 14% Abundant natural resources 1% Population will shrink 2% New development may worsen the natural environment 2% Lack of planning 3% Other 6% DK 6%
Pingshan Survey Questions and Aggregated Response Frequencies 153
7. How important is it to


on’t you walk around for plea- sure more often? IDENTIFY ALL THAT APPLY.
Lack of time 68% The weather 2% Poor air quality 3% Fears for personal security (from people) <1% Fears for safety (from vehicles) <1% Lack of knowledge of walking environment 2


 10%
DK 1%
22. Is the impact from noise to your life a ... Serious problem 18%
Moderate problem 21%
Minor problem 41%
Not a problem at all 19% DK <1%
23. IF Q22=serious or moderate problem, ASK: What is the source of the noise problem? [CIRCLE ALL TH


l to work 45% Travel to school 7% Travel for leisure and sports 37% Travel for shopping 11% Or is it not used at all? 18% Other 2% DK 5%
Pingshan Survey Questions and Aggregated Response Frequencies 161
29. How satisfied are you with the availability


ublic facilities management 1% Resident services and other services 8% Education 1% Health care, social welfare 1% Culture, sports, and recreation 1% Public administration and social organizations 1% Other 1%
39. IF employed: How do you travel to wor


entation of survey results, but rather an overview of the observations we found most salient with respect to the development of targeted policy strategies and indicator system. As noted in Chapter Four, the survey has a sampling error of plus or minu


vation of ecological land was considered important to more residents (95 per- cent) than the preservation of cultural heritage (76 percent) or agricultural land (68 percent). In fact, nearly two-thirds of residents (61 percent) considered preservatio


entage
 Good mix of buildings
Historic preservation
Access to nature
Attractive public spaces
Sense of community
Access to transportation
Summary of Findings from Pingshan Resident Satisfaction Survey 171
Livable communities are frequently associated


n Figure C.6. Dangerous driving by others, including drunk driving and speeding, was considered a serious or moderate problem by 56 percent. A majority (53 percent) also thought safety in driving due to sharing of the road with trucks was a serious o


ion, tended to be more dissatisfied than the survey population in total with the frequency (24 percent), coverage (18 percent), and particularly the slowness (61 per- cent) of public transport (Figure C.8).
Congestion (from car or truck traffic) did


with government efforts to pre- serve the environment; 22 percent were dissatisfied. Respondents who live in Heping, Tiantou, Shabo, and Shijing were more dissatisfied with government efforts to preserve the environment than residents of other commu


 five were dissatisfied with handling of solid waste.
At the neighborhood level, the effective management of community noise is an important environmental issue. Most respondents (60 percent) said that noise was a minor problem or not a problem at al


d that they have good access to transportation (91 percent) and groceries (86 percent) (Figure C.16).
Health care is also nearby for most persons (64 percent). However, more than 40 percent of the residents in Xiuxin, Longtian, Laokeng, Jingui, Pingh


nts who are employed work in the community in which they live, 15 percent work elsewhere in Pingshan, 3 percent work elsewhere in Shenzhen, and 1 percent elsewhere.
Most respondents seem somewhat satisfied with how well their total income meets their


 for efficient provision of public services and facilities.
 GL2
 Increase density of residential space and employment opportunities through provision of high-quality compact development.
   SL3 Promote transit-oriented development near rail stations


ry
L17 Number of buildings listed on a historic registry
L18 Percentage of residents who think their city, district, or county provides historic preservation of structures or buildings (Q10b)
Availability of Data for Preferred Indicator or Proposed I


 that captures inter- and intracity travel flows and mode use.
ST6 Connect pedestrian and bicycle greenways and paths to major employment destinations.
ST7 Institute a parking pricing system for on-street parking and encourage entrepreneurs to develo


s between passenger cars and trucks.
   ST10 Implement peak-period delivery T13 restrictions in the central
business district and other highly congested areas.
ST11 Create freight consolidation T14 centers in urban fringe areas to reduce the number o


ty for air and water pollution and soil contamination.
    E2 Number of facilities identified but lacking permits as a share of total number of facilities (permitted and unpermitted).
  SE2 Increase incentives for E3 enforcement.
Number of facilities


 clean up at sites within the appropriate jurisdiction, and publish a list of sites with the name of the facility owner and a description of the nature of the contamination.
SE7 Establish waste site cleanup E16 funds at the municipal and
provincial l


rket priced
land. H2
SH2 Increase funding capacity and H3 reduce government reliance on development fees by levying property taxes on homes.
SH3 Require a certain percentage of H4 public rental housing units and affordable housing for purchase
in TOD


 Improve provision of market D2 information on prices, quality,
grade, and other product
attributes in provinces where
PRD businesses are targeting their sales efforts.
SD3 Pilot a preclearance program D3 at a border crossing with Hong Kong–Macao.
SD


 Now
L2, L17
T5, T6, T11, T12, T13**, T15, T16
E1–E5, E8–E12, E19, E20, E23–E25
H7, H8**
D1**, D2, D3**, D4, D6*, D8*, D9*
33
Objective
Indicators Available in GIS
L5, L7, L10, L11 – L1 5
Objective
Indicators Available After Implementation of Strateg


eservation regulations.
SL11 Identify and evaluate assets at risk of flooding through mapping.
SL12 Identify and evaluate assets at risk of typhoon damage through mapping.
SL13 Identify and evaluate assets at risk of earthquake damage through mapping


 owned cars per capita will increase and congestion and air pollution will worsen.
 GT1
  Mitigate the need for people to travel by privately owned cars.
         GT2
   Improve connectivity among transportation modes and among PRD cities.
         G


rial lands.
     High Under one year Easy
High 1–3 years Hard
High 1–3 years Hard
   GE4
   Reduce unlawful emissions from air pollution from stationary and mobile sources.
      Medium 1–3 years
Moderate
   High 1–3 years Easy
  Medium More than 3 y


onal economy.
 GD1
  Raise output and employment by encouraging businesses in the PRD to sell more to other regions in Guangdong and elsewhere in China.
    High 1–3 years
High Under one year
Moderate
Moderate
    Lower 1–3 years Hard
 GD2
   Reduce


.
Development and Reform Committee of Guangdong Province, and Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of Guangdong Province, Guangdong Province New Type Urbanization Plan (2014–2020) (in Chinese), 2014. As of June 2, 2015:
http://w w w.tapa


L i b r a r y / fi l e / e n g l i s h / p e r i o d i c a l / r i m / 2 0 11 / 4 1 . p d f
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, OECD Territorial Reviews: Guangdong, China 2010, OECD Publishing, 2010.
Partnership for Sustainable Co


marcation of Concepts; A Literature Study,” Landscape and Urban Planning, Vol. 65, Nos. 1–2, 2003, pp. 5–18.
World Bank, World Development Indicators database, no date.
World Bank, Inclusive Green Growth: The Pathway to Sustainable Development, Washi


Land Use Planning Strategies and
Best Development Practices for Minimizing Vulnerability to Flooding and Coastal Storms, 2005.
Gong, Yuyang, International Experience in Policy and Regulatory Frameworks for Brownfield Site Management, World Bank, Disc


 u t- a m e r i c a - s -11- m o s t- e n d a n g e r e d - h i s t o r i c - places.html
Nelson, Christina, “China’s Green Building Future,” China Business Review, April 1, 2012. As of June 2, 2015: http://www.chinabusinessreview.com/chinas-green-bu


n_billion_in_china
Woo, Myungje, and Jean-Michel Guldmann. “Impacts of Urban Containment Policies on the Spatial Structure of US Metropolitan Areas,” Urban Studies, Vol. 48, No. 16, December 2011, pp. 3511–3535.
Xie, Jian, and Fasheng Li, Overview of


nt/ INTERREG IVC Programme, November 2011. As of June 2, 2015: http://www.sugarlogistics.eu/pliki/handbook.pdf
Davidson, Jacob, “Check Out Tokyo’s Amazing Underground Robotic Bike Parking System,” Time, February 3, 2014. As of June 2, 2015: http://ne


elipe Aros, Shama Campbell, Xia Yang, Iván Sanchez, Johanna Amaya, Carlos Gonzalez-Calderon, Robyn Marquis, Stacey Hodge, Thomas Maguire, Michael Marsico, Shane Zhang, Sandra Rothbard, Kaan Ozbay, Ender Faruk Morgul, Shri Iyer, Kun Xie, and Eren Erm


Carsharing Services Will Surpass 12 Million Members Worldwide by 2020,” press release, August 22, 2013. As of June 2, 2015: http://www.navigantresearch.com/newsroom/carsharing-services-will-surpass-12-million-members- worldwide-by-2020
New York City


ration, FHWA-SA-06-06, 2006. As of June 2, 2015: http://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/rsa/guidelines/documents/FHWA_SA_06_06.pdf
Taylor, Brian D., and Camille N. Y. Fink, “The Factors Influencing Transit Ridership: A Review and Analysis of the Ridership Litera


e.go.jp/English/Publish/Download/Jrp/153.html
Blumberg, Katherine, Michael Walsh, and Charlotte Pera, Low-Sulfur Gasoline and Diesel: The Key to Lower Vehicle Emissions, prepared for the meeting of the International Council on Clean Transportation, N


ansportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol. 9, No. 2, March 2004a, pp. 87–106.
Dill, Jennifer, Scrapping Old Cars, University of California Transportation Center, 2004b.
The Economist, “Jump-Starting the Car Industry: How Generous I


wer Projects Would Cause 16,000 Premature Deaths in Guangdong and Hong Kong over Next 40 Years,” August 27, 2013. As of June 2, 2015: http://www.greenpeace.org/eastasia/press/releases/climate-energy/2013/guangdong-hong-kong-coal/
Grözinger, Jan, Tho


 France, Germany and the United States, 2011. As of June 2, 2015: http://www.internationaltransportforum.org/pub/pdf/11Fleet.pdf
Kaji, Masanori, “Role of Experts and Public Participation in Pollution Control: The Case of Itai-itai Disease in Japan,”


dtable Meetings in the Tai Lake Basin, Institute of Developing Economies–Japan External Trade Organization, 2009.
People’s Government of Guangdong Province, “Guidance on Accelerating Regional Economic Integration of the Pearl River Delta,” 2009.
Peop


velopment of Environmental Public Interest Litigation in China,” Journal of Court Innovation, 2010.
World Bank, Implementation Completion and Results Report for a Guangdong Pearl River Delta Urban Environment Project, 2012.
World Bank and Development


i.berkeley.ca.us/uploadedFiles/Planning_and_Development/Housing_Code_Enforcement/ RHSP%20Brochure%202013.pdf
Cobham, Alex, and Andy Sumner, Is It All About the Tails? The Palma Measure of Income Inequality, Washington, D.C.: Center for Global Develop


 ed., China’s Housing Reforms and Outcomes, Cambridge, Mass.: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, 2011.
Modular Building Institute, “New York City Turns to Modular Construction to Solve Housing Needs,” no date. As of June 2, 2015: http://www.modular.or


tificate of Occupancy,” no date. As of June 2, 2015:
http://dcra.dc.gov/service/get-certificate-occupancy
U.S. Department of Energy, Enforcing Building Energy Codes in China: Progress and Comparative Lessons, Washington, D.C., August 2010. As of June


ner, Angela, Pat Hogan, Valerio Micale, Alex Vasa, Yuqing Yu, Xuehua Zhang, Xiaolu Zhao, and Julia Zuckerman, Tracking Emissions and Mitigation Actions: Evaluation of MRV Systems in China, Germany, Italy, and the United States, Climate Policy Initiat


mo/english/331n08or3m9a51l/newscast/tp_0701b.html
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Business Employment Dynamics: Frequently Asked Questions,” 2004. As of June 2, 2015:
http://www.bls.gov/bdm/bdmfaq.htm
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Business Empl


he purpose of the indicator system is to provide an analytical foundation for guiding policy choices that strike a balance between meeting residents’ needs and at the same time attracting new employers and employees to the region. The indicator syste


 CORPORATION
Electronic Surveillance of Mobile Devices
Understanding the Mobile Ecosystem and Applicable Surveillance Law
 Edward Balkovich, Don Prosnitz, Anne Boustead, Steven C. Isley
For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/R


ce two substantial challenges when accessing these data. The first is maintaining awareness of the sources and nature of commercial data available to an investigator; law enforcement may be overlooking help- ful information because officers are simpl


s.
ix
x Electronic Surveillance of Mobile Devices: The Mobile Ecosystem and the Law
To help overcome these challenges, we developed and prototyped a tool—the Mobile Information and Knowledge Ecosystem (MIKE)— that functions like a map to help a wide


he District of Columbia Metropolitan Police Department, the Indiana State Police, and the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Depart- ment. In addition, a number of individuals helped us to understand commercial concerns and perspectives and the perspectiv


sive and must be conducted in a legal framework intended to protect privacy and civil liberties. Technological, commercial, and legal trends make balancing these equities a significant challenge for both law enforcement and the broader policy communi


at
4 WhatsApp is an Internet text and voice messaging service (WhatsApp, no date).
5 IP-based protocols can be used to provide services very similar to those provided by tra-
ditional telecommunication technologies. For example, Voice over IP (VoIP)


Even continuous, real-time data—such as location information col- lected by a traffic-management app—may be retained indefinitely in multiple locations, confusing the previous clear distinction between real-time interception and stored information he


government access to commercially collected data (Van Hoboken, 2013).
 6 Electronic Surveillance of Mobile Devices: The Mobile Ecosystem and the Law
Law Enforcement Challenges
It almost goes without saying that the explosion of mobile devices has inc


d collection and the rise of privacy-enhancing technologies. Whether this leads to more or less effective surveillance depends primarily on the sophistication of the criminal and the nature of the crime, not policy and law. A sophisticated criminal e


 can all collect information about the user, including
• location,atvaryingfrequenciesandresolutions
9
10
Electronic Surveillance of Mobile Devices: The Mobile Ecosystem and the Law
• •
• •
personaldata,suchasaddressbooks,contactsandacquaintances, an


inancial motivation to do so. Location information, for example, is collected and used by the carriers, by navi- gation and traffic management apps, and even by games such as Angry Birds. Thus, the same type of data may be available from multiple sou


nforcement has strong interests in the retention of that data and the ability to access it in a timely manner. Destruction of information or inability to access it in a timely manner can seriously impede an investigation—especially a multistep invest


 to the investigation? What legal processes would have been required to access the data? How many participants were aware of the data this app accessed? How long were these data retained, and for what purpose? Who else was provided with these data?
S


arrant is not unconstitutional. In re Application of the United States of America for Historical Cell Site Data, 724 F.3d 600, 615 (5th Cir. 2013), United States. v. Davis, 785 F.3d 498 (11th Cir. 2015). However, a magistrate judge from the Eastern D


e app may record it once per day, accurate to a few feet, while another may record it every five minutes, accurate to a few blocks.
 16 Electronic Surveillance of Mobile Devices: The Mobile Ecosystem and the Law
app, or service—location data are coll


iminal investigations.
Legal decisionmakers want greater clarity regarding existing laws and an easier way to identify potential areas of uncertainty.
Policy decisionmakers want more information about information sharing within the mobile ecosystem i


bile devices, apps, and services in different contexts and for different stakeholders and the desire to create a tool that would facilitate access to that information, we identified the following objectives to guide our tool’s development. They defin


s the sheer number and complexity of the firms involved in the ecosystem. The depictions have utility in discovering new market segments and representative firms to further investigate, but do not provide specific information on how information is ga


t resolutions.1 MIKE can then be used to identify the relation- ships between data sources and laws governing access to them that are relevant to different jurisdictions and contexts—helping to maintain awareness of a complex landscape of apps, servi


imply catalogs laws that the curator deems relevant to lawful access to a particular type of data in a particular context (e.g., a traffic stop, or consent). It serves as a checklist to remind an investigator of the requirements he or she needs to co


ce or case management.
5 We selected states for inclusion based on their influence on electronic surveillance policy, their prior activities in the area, and the existence of law enforcement partners within the state.
 CHAPTER FOUR
How MIKE Works
 MI


s, MIKE embeds the formalisms of an entity-relationship model into the content of its pages to create a semantic wiki. For example, Google is a commercial firm, location is a data type, and a 2703(d) court order is a legal rule—all are examples of en


nversations generally involved a discussion of the problems MIKE was designed to address, a demonstration of MIKE’s capabilities, and then a discussion of the pros and cons of such an approach. However, the specifics of each con- versation was genera


g the burden on the companies providing the information. By making it easier to navigate the mobile ecosys- tem, MIKE could both streamline criminal investigative practices and inform the development of policies governing electronic surveillance.
Ass


range of apps represented in MIKE, rather than many instances of apps that fundamentally perform the same functions. From their perspective, a range of apps would help demonstrate to policymakers the complexity and variance of mobile devices, apps a


ll agree that a compromise is necessary and desirable.
CHAPTER SIX
Sustaining MIKE
 One of the biggest challenges in moving from prototype to full imple- mentation of a mobile ecosystem tool is ensuring that the information contained within it is rel


 A curator could also can provide independent analysis (i.e., unaligned with any stakeholder) of the tool’s content that could be used to inform policy debates.
Next Steps
Our approach appears to have value and be worthy of continued devel- opment. T


ad your contacts Read call log
Write call log
Read calendar events plus confidential information
Add or modify calendar events and send email to guests without owner’s knowledge
Precise location (GPS and network-based) Approximate locations (network-


information about the user and the user’s Internet activi- ties derived from the Universal Resource Locater referenced, cookies, location, and other information.
Demand-side platforms can optionally contract for additional data about the user from da


August 29, 2013. As of October 20, 2015: http://arstechnica.com/security/2013/08/ tor-usage-doubles-in-under-a-week-and-no-one-knows-why/
Federal Communications Commission, Trends in Telephone Service, Washington, D.C., September 2010.
Google, Google


.
Standage, Tom, The Victorian Internet: The Remarkable Story of the Telegraph and the Nineteenth Century’s On-Line Pioneers, New York: Walker Publishing Company, Inc., 1998.
State v. Smith, 124 Ohio St. 3d 163 (Ohio 2009).
Statista, “Global Mobile P


use, and the services they access all collect and retain enormous amounts of information that can be useful in criminal investigations. However, state and local law enforcement face two substantial challenges when accessing these data: (1) maintaini


Research Report
Using Cost-Effectiveness Analysis to Prioritize Spending on Traffic Safety
Liisa Ecola, Benjamin Batorsky, Jeanne S. Ringel
   CORPORATION
For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/rr1224
 Published by the RAND Co


l work to increase the number of interventions analyzed in the tool from the original 12 to 14. This report uses the underlying calculations in the tool to develop several policy analyses—comparisons of different ways to rank the selected interventio


.................................. 26 Table 5.2. Ten Instances with the Highest Cost-Effectiveness Ratios ......................................... 28 Table A.1. Cost Components and Subcomponents, by Intervention and Type of Cost ............... 36 T


already in widespread use. Table S.1 briefly describes the 14 interventions selected on this basis.
 xi
Table S.1. Evidence-Based Traffic Crash Interventions Analyzed in the Motor Vehicle Prioritizing Interventions and Cost Calculator for States
  In


    NOTE: DWI = driving while intoxicated.
Costs are defined in several ways for the tool, but the questions addressed in this report use only costs that the state bears to implement the interventions (such as police time). These are estimated based


ted. The cost-effectiveness of these individual interventions ranges from 130 for alcohol interlocks to 0.8 for limits on diversion and plea agreements. We also identify the most cost-effective intervention in each state. If all remaining states impl


ost-effective way to reduce drunk driving?” Using five interventions2 that target DWI specifically, we look at the cost-effectiveness ratios across all states. There are 255 possible intervention–state combinations (51 states times five interventions


made, and a prior report (Ringel et al., forthcoming) documents them. However, because of these assumptions, the estimates presented here should be considered approximations.
• We do not continually update the tool. We produced a tool that was based


and James M. Anderson and Christopher Skeels of RAND for their thoughtful and constructive reviews of the project documentation and tool. Their input improved the final product significantly. Jurek Grabowski, director of research for the AAA Foundati


vehicle–related injury–prevention interventions. The analyses are available through an interactive online tool, the Motor Vehicle Prioritizing Interventions and Cost Calculator for States (MV PICCS), that states can use to assess state-specific costs


e the steps in the development and analysis of our cost- effectiveness estimates. For more-detailed information on the sources of cost and benefit information and the assumptions and analyses that generate the cost-effectiveness estimates, please see


selected
locations where they patrol the area looking for suspicious driving behavior in an attempt to identify alcohol-impaired drivers. In contrast to sobriety checkpoints, saturation patrols do not stop every vehicle.
• Bicycle helmet laws: Bicycl


belt fines in most states.
Implementation Cost Estimation
In the tool, the costs associated with these interventions fall into one of four categories: costs that the state bears to implement the intervention (such as the cost of police time), costs t


are an important part of how the tool works because users can include these fines and fees—which essentially constitute revenue to the state—to see the extent to which they defray the costs of implementation. Essentially, this means that each interve


e appendix). The exception is sobriety checkpoints, for which there are distinct estimates in the literature. For this intervention, the effect on injuries is 20 percent and 8.1 percent for fatalities.
Lacking any other information, for all other int


tments employed by CDC’s Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System cost-of-injury reports (CDC, 2015), computed using Council for Community and Economic Research cost-of-living index data (Council for Community and Economic Research, und


efits, we generated a cost- effectiveness estimate for each of the 14 interventions in each state. This is the ratio of the total annual monetized benefit to the total annual implementation cost for each separate intervention. The higher the ratio of


ld decline slightly to $13.9 billion.
Figure 2.1 shows all 298 combinations and the relationship between the number of lives potentially saved and the cost-effectiveness ratio. Ideally, we would want to implement the interventions in the upper right


cks
Universal motorcycle helmet laws
License plate impoundment
In-person license renewal for older drivers
Bicycle helmet laws
Primary seat belt– use laws
Sobriety checkpoints
Automated speed- camera enforcement
Automated red- light enforcement
Vehic


second approach we use looks within each state and selects the top-ranked intervention for that state to implement. The top-ranked intervention varies across states because of differences in characteristics and the set of interventions that are alre


each state’s allocation by 10 percent, or spend the money where it is most effective, regardless of state. We assume that states continue to fund their existing traffic safety policies, and we use MV PICCS to calculate whether any additional interve


 one or more interventions, the remaining funds are insufficient to implement another. The group of interventions in Table 4.1 costs about
$28.4 million in total out of the available $57.9 million.
Only six interventions of 11 are on the list, genera


otals are based on the underlying numbers, so some slight inconsistencies are due to this rounding.
Interestingly, the actual number of interventions funded under this approach, 76, is slightly lower than under the approach in which each state receiv


commonly used:
• proportion of a state’s vehicle crash fatalities attributable to drunk driving: The proportion of fatalities attributable to alcohol-impaired driving ranges from 19 percent in Iowa to 48 percent in North Dakota. The average for the U


erventions implemented
5 4 3 2 1 0
                                                                                0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Alcohol-related fatalities per 100,000 population
   Number of Number of Interventio


ve are license plate impoundment and five are alcohol interlocks. These rank high in cost-effectiveness terms because they are both sanctions that take place after arrest and thus do not impose additional costs to the police or court system. Also, of


re they are not currently in place, 1,219 fatalities would be prevented, and implementation costs would be approximately
$55 million. Universal motorcycle helmet laws alone would prevent 745 fatalities and cost $41 million to implement. If we take a


$1 spent on implementation. We find that implementing these ten state–intervention combinations would cost $2.1 million and would prevent 170 fatalities. That works out to a collective cost- effectiveness ratio of 167. When less cost-effective interv


terlocks
Saturation Patrols
Bicycle Helmet Laws
Universal Motorcycle
High-Visibility
License Plate
Impoundment
Plea Agreements
In-Person License
Higher Fines for Seat
Belt–Use Violations
Table A.1. Cost Components and Subcomponents, by Intervention a


cost Children’s bicycle helmet laws,
$/helmet
— 1,182 —
— — — ——20 — — —
——— 100 — —
Universal motorcycle helmet laws, $/helmet
Compliance cost
37
   Cost Component and Unit
Infant car seat, $/seat
Children’s booster seat, $/seat Fines, fees, and cha


s well as interviews. Detailed explanations are available in Ringel et al., SOURCES: All figures are our estimates based on a
forthcoming.
NOTE: — = not applicable. CIOT = Click It or Ticket,
a type of high-visibility enforcement campaign. All costs


fects of selective breath testing checkpoints and reported a median finding in the literature of a 20% reduction in fatal and nonfatal injury crashes.
Fell, Tippetts, and Levy, 2008, cites a 17.9% drop in fatal crashes in Michigan. We assume a propor


01 2,662 503 1,225 1,308 5,044
Cost per Fatality
11,883 947 979,925 304,406 29,738 12,372 111,812 6,006 11,773
      SOURCE: Blincoe et al., 2015.
NOTE: Blincoe et al., 2015, Table 1-2, reports costs by injury severity. We calculated a weighted avera


ecisionmakers Select Interventions to Reduce Traffic Crash Deaths and Injuries, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, RB-9827-CDC, forthcoming (a).
———, How to Get the Biggest Impact from an Increase in Spending on Traffic Safety, Santa Monica, Cal


October 2, 2009, version referenced February 17, 2014. As of August 12, 2015:
http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspx
———, “National Automotive Sampling System (NASS),” undated (b); referenced February 17, 2014. As of August 12, 2015:
http://ww


  CHILDREN AND FAMILIES EDUCATION AND THE ARTS ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INFRASTRUCTURE AND
TRANSPORTATION INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
TERRORIS


r copyright law. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use.


Questions or comments about this report should be sent to the project leader, Seth Seabury, an Associate Professor at the University of Southern California and adjunct economist at RAND (seabury@usc.edu). For more information on the RAND Center for H


an employer to provide a qualified offer of return to work.
• Determine the amount for the supplemental payment according to the difference between actual earnings loss and expected earnings loss, which could help address an inequity wherein replacem


ury. For a period, costs fell and the system appeared to be stabilizing.
Then, in the late 2000s, there were two developments that increased pressure for further reform. The first was that premiums began to rise once more, largely driven by rising co


ns for costs given a fixed benefit level. The actual level of benefits is an important, but separate, policy question, and we do not directly address it here.
In the next chapter, we describe some of the policy challenges that arise with the program


aining affordability. These terms are defined and discussed in more detail in past work (Berkowitz and Burton, 1987; Reville et al., 2005). The appropriate level of adequacy is difficult to define in this context, as the legislature offered little gu


an individual injured before their injury to their earnings after their injury.1 There are two problems with measuring earnings losses in this way. One is that it attributes all differences in earnings before and after the injury to the injury itsel


time after the date of injury to allow for the effects of the injury to be realized. Past RAND work suggests it takes three to five years after the date of injury for earnings losses to stabilize (Reville et al., 2005). Given this time frame, this su


is time period, when workers are receiving benefits, could be more subject to manipulation in the sense that workers could take additional time off work to increase their potential award. It is possible that if claimants know that the fourth year wil


eet the goal of improving benefit adequacy without putting an undue stress on system costs.
However, one of the advantages in the way the program is being designed is that payments will not be made until a sufficient time has passed to monitor lost e


sufficient level to merit a supplemental payment. Additionally, the statute provides a set budget that is available for the supplemental payments. Thus, some estimate of the frequency of expected take-up is required to be able to determine benefit le


for the California Department of Insurance. The data we use comes from the Uniform Statistical Reporting Plan, which includes information on the date of the injury that led to the claim, the indemnity benefits, defense costs, and medical costs (paid


et al., 2009; Peterson et al., 1998; Reville et al., 1999; Reville et al., 2001; Seabury et al., 2011). Using matched sets of uninjured control-group workers can, under the right assumptions, identify the change in earnings that was caused by the inj


The fourth column of Table 1 reports the fraction of individuals receiving the SJDB as reported by the WCIRB. Approximately 20 percent of PPD claimants in California receive the SJDB.5 Not surprisingly, this rate is lower for workers with


alculated for the fourth year after injury.
* For comparison, a sample of injured workers with no PD has shown 33.5-percent decline, and two samples of uninjured workers have shown declines of 15.0 percent and 16.4 percent. See Table 3.
6 We have don


rk using these same data (Seabury et al., 2011; Seabury et al., 2013). Even for comparatively minor cases with disability ratings of 1–4, the estimated decline in earnings exceeds 30 percent. To better understand the extent to which losses are inflat


bility but no PD experience losses of 33.5 percent, which is higher even than the low-rated claims in the DEU sample. Finally, for the uninjured workers matched to the WCIRB sample, the average decline is 16.4 percent. The fact that even workers with


 Exceed the Overall Average Losses (%)
Disability
Rating
1 to 4
5 to 9
10to14
15to19
20to24
25to29
30to34
35to39
40to44
45to49
50to54
55to59
60to64
65to69
70to74
75to79
80to84
85to89
90to94
95 to 99
All Workers
Note: The table reports the fraction of


 to take- up of the vocational rehabilitation benefit).
Table 5. Estimated Number of Beneficiaries and Average Payment Amount Under Different Eligibility Criteria
Eligible Population
All workers who receive the SJDB
Workers who receive the SJDB with


rst and second rows in Table 5 with the third and fourth rows). There is an inherent trade-off between the number of recipients and the size of the benefit, as long as the benefit program is to maintain solvency and not lead to an increase in workers


e the relative earnings by taking 100*(1-[post-injury earnings/pre-injury earnings]).
 20
References
Berkowitz, Monroe, and John F. Burton, Permanent Disability Benefits in Workers’ Compensation, Kalamazoo, Mich.: W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employmen


d Environmental Medicine, Vol. 55, No. 3, 2013, pp. 286–291.
Seabury, Seth A., Robert T. Reville, Stephanie Williamson, Christopher F. McLaren, Adam H. Gailey, Elizabeth Wilke, and Frank W. Neuhauser, Workers’ Compensation Reform and Return to Work:


  CHILDREN AND FAMILIES EDUCATION AND THE ARTS ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INFRASTRUCTURE AND
TRANSPORTATION INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
TERRORIS


e the risk of storm surge flooding to many parts of New Orleans. It is located to the east of New Orleans and is currently the largest such barrier in the United States. (USACE photo by Paul Floro.)
© Copyright 2014 RAND Corporation
This document and


cymakers, stakeholders, and residents concerned with the well-being of coastal regions across the United States. The planning approach described in this report offers a way to compare many options in a rigorous manner while accounting for a wide rang


...................................
3.2. Trade-Offs Between Land Building and Area of Suitable Saltwater Habitat. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.3. Master Plan Funding Allocation Across Project Types. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


and melting glaciers, leading to sea levels from 8 inches to as much as 4–6 feet higher than 1990 levels by 2100.Such increases, when combined with coastal tides and storm surge, will likely dramatically increase the risk of floods to coastal residen


risk-reduction and restoration projects to address the coast’s problems. Part of this mandate was to develop a process that was as objective and transparent as possible and based on the best-available scientific information about coastal processes a


ing Tool, as shown in Figure S.1, is a set of interactive visualiza- tions that present estimates of how alternatives would or would not achieve CPRA’s goals. These visualizations allowed CPRA and stakeholders to review and understand the trade-offs


. These scenarios differed across many uncertain factors, including sea-level rise, subsidence, and storm frequency and intensity. For instance, in 2061, expected annual damage (EAD) is projected to increase to between $7 billion and $21 billion with


derstand the key trade-offs among strategies.
For example, because land building is an important goal, the Planning Tool identified a series of sediment diversion, marsh creation, and other restoration projects that are likely to lead to the most lan


c approach, CPRA was able to develop a $50 billion, 50-year Master Plan. The planning processes helped CPRA and stakeholders grapple with tough trade-offs between “hard” (infrastructure) and “soft” (resto- ration and nonstructural mitigation) approac


l analyses into a framework to identify a robust strategy for recovery and future risk reduction. Other coastal areas could also benefit from the application of this approach, including the Eastern Seaboard, as it seeks to be better prepared for sea-


cky R. Melton.
RAND RR437-1.1
  1
2 Strengthening Coastal Planning
ing loss of coastal lands. Over the years, various interests in the region had advanced a diverse range and large number of possible solutions, but never had the state had a means of


tes and elsewhere in the world.
Forces at Work on the Louisiana Coast
Louisiana’s coastline has always been dynamic—expanding and receding over the course of millennia in response to periodic flooding and sediment deposition from the Mississippi and


ommunities, such as New Orleans, and the ocean would be gone and entire swaths of the central and western portion of the state would be lost.
The Risk of Coastal Flooding Is Rising
Wetlands, barrier islands, dunes, ridges, and other natural coastal f


he loss of coastal wetlands and increasing vulnerability of coastal communities threatens the economic and social status quo of the region and the nation. Louisiana’s Master Plan enumer- ates the assets and services the coast provides and, ultimately


or bank stabilization, barrier island restoration, channel realign- ment, marsh creation through river and sediment diversions, marsh creation though mechani- cal means, restoration of natural hydrologic conditions, oyster barrier reef, ridge restora


eational activities. The coast is also home to large cities, such as New Orleans, with significant existing flood control infrastructure constructed by the federal gov- ernment, and smaller communities, such as Houma, that have little or none; what p


- toration of the natural environment, engineered infrastructure, more resilient building prac- tices, and improved emergency management and evacuation planning, all to ensure that over- all risk from flooding to people and property on the coast is m


iver flow, available funding over the next five decades, and the preferences of CPRA senior manage- ment and the group of stakeholders. The Planning Tool uses optimization to iteratively identify alternatives comprised of the most cost-effective proj


ts for developing the Master Plan. Thus, the modeling teams developed three environmental scenarios to help identify near- term investments that could perform sufficiently well over a range of future conditions and determine which other investments c


ors through three future scenarios is an important first step toward developing a robust coastal strategy, more systematic stress testing of the Master Plan is required. Given time and other constraints, the modeling conducted for the 2012 Master Pla


sider flood damage at different levels of severity and likelihood, CLARA estimates 2 percent, 1 percent, and 0.2 percent AEP values for flood depths at each point across coastal Louisiana; these are commonly referred to as 50-, 100-, and 500-year flo


egion and generates flood depth estimates in areas outside of enclosed hurricane protection systems, as well as the storm hazard condi- tions for a collection of hypothetical storms. It also records surge and wave conditions along the external bounda


t action. Figure 3.5 in the next chapter shows, through CLARA modeling, how the portfolio of projects included in the Master Plan can help to reduce flood depths in the same areas.
The Planning Tool and Innovative Decisionmaking
CPRA asked RAND to de


 be used by the Planning Tool to develop new alternatives.
The Planning Tool helped CPRA develop a consistent, scientific base of information to support four sets of deliberations leading to the final Master Plan:
 Latitude
30.5 30.0 29.5 29.0 28.5
S


f sediment and river water, as well as control the intrusion of salt water into fresh areas. Other restoration projects create new marshland by piping sediment, establish oyster barrier reefs to both improve oyster cultivation and act as breakwaters


er under different funding assumptions, and (4) which alternatives would best support CPRA and stakeholder values and preferences.
analytical Support for the Development of Louisiana’s 50-Year Comprehensive Plan 19
Figure 2.4
Analysis Supported Stake


loped to show how different projects ranked based on cost-effectiveness. This information supported early stakeholder workshops that helping build confidence in the data and tools being used, and laid the foundation for proposed alternatives that wou


outcomes for some shrimp and saltwater fisheries, respectively. The “without action” alternative results in the significant loss of about 700 square miles and shows a slight increase in the saltwater species habitat. The “maximize land building” alt


include or exclude in the final plan (Groves, Sharon, and Knopman, 2012). After several months of discussions among CPRA management and stake- holders and iterations with the Planning Tool, CPRA defined a single alternative for the Janu- ary 2012 dr


e future without action, the restoration projects included in the Master Plan could build between 580 and 800 square miles of land over the next 50 years, depending on future conditions, as illustrated in Figure 3.6. For the moderate scenario, land l


evelop
Using the Planning tool to Support the Development of a Comprehensive Plan for Louisiana 27
 Difference in flood depth in feet
1 to 2
–7 to –6
3 to 4
–5 to –4
Marsh Creation
Barrier Island/Headland
Oyster Reef
Ridge Restoration
Shoreline Prote


 principles of deliberation with analysis along with early, sustained, and transparent stakeholder and decisionmaker engagement.
Growing Vulnerability of Coastal Regions
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the populations of U.S. coastal counties ha


he mid-Atlantic region, particularly coastal New York and New Jersey. The storm flooded train and subway tunnels, damaged electric power transmission and distribution equipment, dam- aged or destroyed 650,000 homes and businesses, caused at least 165


 recovery expenditures
           Government funded disaster relief ($B)
            1970 1975
1980 1985
1990 1995
Year
2000 2005 2010 2015
SOURCE: RAND analysis.
NOTE: The negative expenditure in 2006 represents funds rescinded from previous (cumula


ough rock and concrete. Simi- larly, many approaches to ecosystem restoration rely on mechanical means—such as moving dirt to rebuild eroded wetlands or replacing sand that has been washed away. More recently, however, nonstructural and less mechanic


ation for investment and planning in the Sandy-affected region in future years (Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Task Force, 2013).
Principles for Integrated Coastal Planning
Given the uncertainty of how these factors—alone or in combination—will play out


tal plan will be faced with many difficult choices. They will need to take social, economic, and ecological concerns into con- sideration. These are value judgments, not technical choices per se. At its best, scientific data and analysis should make


he $50 billion budget is to be allocated to nonstructural risk- reduction strategies. These strategies will be developed over time, allowing CPRA to benefit both from observing how risks are evolving over the coming decades and from new scientific ad


ponse to new information. RDM helps decisionmakers identify strategies—including both near-term and deferred decisions or investments—that are shown through the analysis to be effective over a wide range of plausible future conditions. RDM also can b


which the inputs developed in the decision-structuring step are used along with data and models to eval- uate plausible future conditions across a wide range of futures for one or more strategies. This step generates a significant amount of quantitat


ery,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 77, No. 1, 2010,
pp. 34–49.
Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority, Fiscal Year 2014 Annual Plan: Integrated Ecosystem Restoration and Hurricane Protection in Coastal Louisiana, Baton Roug


e/
 41
42 Strengthening Coastal Planning
Federal Emergency Management Agency, Hazus: The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA’s) Methodology for Estimating Potential Losses from Disasters, web page, 2013. As of July 9, 2013: http://www.fema.go


J. Nicholls, and Jan Corfee-Morlot, “Future Flood Losses in Major Coastal Cities,” Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, No. 9, 2013, pp. 802–806.
Healy, Andrew, and Neil Malhotra, “Myopic Voters and Natural Disaster Policy,” American Political Science Revi


Kaatz, and Marc Waage, Decision Support Planning Methods: Incorporating Climate Change Uncertainties into Water Planning, San Francisco, Calif.: Water Utility Climate Alliance, 2010. As of May 7, 2012:
http://w w w.wucaonline.org/assets/pdf/actions_w


ptember 26, 2013: http://www.nola.com/environment/index.ssf/2013/05/national_fish_and_wildlife_fou.html
Simon, Herbert A., “Rational Choice and the Structure of the Environment,” Psychological Review, Vol. 63, No. 2, 1956, pp. 129–138.
U.S. Army Corp


  CHILDREN AND FAMILIES EDUCATION AND THE ARTS ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INFRASTRUCTURE AND
TRANSPORTATION INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
TERRORIS


taloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication.
ISBN: 978-0-8330-8493-4
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily


within the U.S. Department of Justice, with input from the Office of Vocational and Adult Education, U.S. Department of Education, competitively awarded a project to the RAND Corporation in 2010 to comprehensively examine the current state of correc


ding vocational education programming that will lead to industry or nationally recognized certifi- cations; that the importance of computer technology in correctional education is growing but use of technology is mixed and access to the Internet by i


tcomes for and provide a comprehensive response to the increasing number of indi- viduals who are released from prisons, jails, and juvenile residential facilities and returning to communities upon release. The Second Chance Act’s grant programs are


e was conducted in the RAND Safety and Justice Program, which addresses all aspects of public safety and the criminal justice system, including violence, polic- ing, corrections, courts and criminal law, substance abuse, occupational safety, and publ


ng Between FY2009 and FY2012 . . . . . .
4.6. Mean Change in States’ Correctional Education Budgets per Student Between
FY2009 and FY2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


Workforce Investment Act, Perkins Act, and States’ Higher
Educational/Aid Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
A.1. Summary of Studies, S


employment outcomes? The question is especially salient as the nation as a whole and states in particular have struggled with the need to make spending cuts to all social programs due to the recession of 2008 and its long aftermath. With funding from


y within a correctional facility. Programs that also included a postrelease transition com- ponent remained eligible as long as part of the program was administered in a correctional setting.
For the juvenile program systematic review, we define inca


ave an eligible research design, which, for our purposes, is one where there is a treat- ment group comprising inmates who participated in or completed the correctional education program and a comparison group of inmates who did not.
Of the 267 prima


rograms and of incarceration itself. We found that the direct costs of reincarceration were far greater than the direct costs of providing correctional education. More specifically, for a correctional education program to be cost-effective—or breakev


egardless of jurisdiction (i.e., local, state) to which juveniles are confined because of arrest, court proceedings, or adjudication/conviction; (2) use eligible outcome measures, defined as any measure of recidivism (e.g., rearrest, reconvic- tion,


d by sev- eral large and well-executed studies outside of correctional facilities. Beyond these compelling studies, we find that evidence for two other packaged interventions, Corrective Reading and TUNEin to Reading, is positive, but the underlying


dult secondary education and postsecondary education was offered in 32 of the states, although smaller states were less likely to do so. Postsecondary edu- cation courses today in 28 states are primarily paid for by the individual inmate or by family


tes. In comparison, the medium-sized and large states experi- enced a reduction in the number of students in vocational education/CTE programs, on aver- age, of 4 percent and 11 percent, respectively. There also appears to have been a modest expan- s


s often a prerequisite for many vocational training programs. The 2014 GED exam not only represents a more rigorous test, being aligned with the Common Core State Standards (CSS), but will also rely on a new test delivery model— namely, computer-base


is effective or cost-effective; rather, the debate should focus on where the gaps in our knowledge are and opportunities to move the field forward.
We offer some recommendations and next steps that are drawn from our evaluation results; while this re


kers and state correctional education directors can make informed trade-offs in budget discussions.
• Have federal and state governments and philanthropy fund (1) evaluations of programs that illustrate different educational instructional models, wit


rials and rigorous evaluations of natural experiments. Such research efforts will clearly take time to develop and execute. They will ideally be realized through long-term partnerships between researchers and correctional facilities. Because such par


trends in the field of adult and juvenile corrections have important implications for correctional education that merit further consideration. First, many states are undertaking mea- sures to reduce the size of their state prison population using a v


ally or privately, a central repository of such information (e.g., staff- ing levels and expertise, curriculum used, hours of instruction provided, types of programs offered) would provide a valuable tool to policymakers and researchers alike.
we rec


nd especially Tammy Barstad for their assistance with the survey. John Linton, John Dowdell, Steve Steurer, and Jerry McGlone reviewed several drafts of the questionnaire.
In addition, a number of individuals within and outside RAND contributed to va


 Works Clearinghouse
xxvii
CHaptEr OnE
Introduction
Overview
Each year, more than 700,000 incarcerated individuals leave federal and state prisons; within three years of release, 40 percent will have committed new crimes or violated the terms of thei


l (2003) conducted a series of surveys of employers in four major U.S. cities and found that employers were much more averse to hiring ex-offenders than they were in hiring any other disadvantaged group. Willing- ness to hire ex-offenders was greater


ike in the United States, and what are some emerging issues and trends to consider?
4. What recommendations emerge from the study for the U.S. Department of Justice and other federal departments to further the field of correction education and where


tional education/CTE programs summarized above. We also restricted our scope to focus on correctional education programs provided in the institutional setting, as opposed to postrelease or community-based programs.
For the juvenile program systematic


(Chlup, 2005), and the general belief was that a primary purpose of punishment was rehabili- tation to change an individual’s behaviors (F. Allen, 1981; Chlup, 2005). The period between 1901 and 1920 (known as the Progressive Era) was a period of soc


s, the Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) initiated mandatory education starting with the establishment of its first mandatory adult basic education program in 1982 and fol- lowed by a requirement in 1983 that each institution have its own qualified rea


ding for correctional education in some states based on informal reports from state correctional education directors citing either no further funding cuts or even some minor increases in funding—a situation that has enabled them in some cases to begi


carried out a comprehensive systematic review of exist- ing literature to identify relevant studies of correctional education effectiveness, followed by a meta-analysis of the relevant studies identified—a statistical method that synthesizes findings


 and Wilks (1975) that set the stage for the current policy discourse and research direction in the field.2
Lipton, Martinson, and Wilks (1975)
In 1975, Douglas Lipton, Robert Martinson, and Judith Wilks published a systematic review of 231 studies o


adult correctional education programs, because their methods, findings, and conclusions are most relevant for providing context to our study. Additionally, readers should note that we are aware of two dissertations (Chappell, 2003; Wells, 2000) that


lly, to be included in MacKenzie’s re-analysis, the study needed to employ one of the following three research designs: a well-executed randomized, controlled trial; a quasi-experimental design with very similar treatment and comparison groups; or a


hniques had not been developed (Slavin, 1984). More recent reviews using meta-analysis techniques question the conclusions of the earlier work, finding evidence of a relationship between correctional education program par- ticipation before release a


ded a search of relevant research databases; a gray literature search of online repositories maintained by research organizations, think tanks, and universities; and a bib- liographic scan of all major literature reviews, systematic reviews, thematic


 all outcome metrics were independently assessed and verified by two Ph.D. researchers who were members of the project team.
12 How Effective Is Correctional Education, and Where Do We Go from Here?
Once all data were abstracted and verified, each st


ies, our employment analysis is based on 18 studies, and our achievement test score analysis—which looks at reading and math score tests—is based on four studies.5 These add up to more than the 58 studies that emerged from the systematic analysis, be


hat contributed to the finding (n) and whether the finding was statistically significant at con- ventional levels (p < 0.05) or not statistically significant (n.s.). We then summarize the overall effectiveness of correctional education for each outco


n programs are 13% higher than the odds of obtaining employment among inmates who did not.
n = 18 studies, p < 0.05
Summary of Meta-Analysis Results
Most Rigorous Studies
Inmates who participated in correctional education programs had a 43% lower odd


ies as well as when looking only at those studies with the strongest research designs, we conclude that correctional education is an effective strategy for reducing recidivism.6
The Relationship Between Correctional Education and Postrelease Employme


ctional education is poten- tially an effective strategy for improving the postrelease employment prospects of inmates.7
The Relationship Between Correctional Education and Test Scores
Test scores—reading and math—measure the immediate cognitive gain


de that learning gains in both reading and math among inmates exposed to computer-assisted instruction are similar to learning gains made by inmates taught through traditional instruction methods.
Because computer-assisted instruction can be self-pac


- tional education programs per inmate participant was $1,400 and $1,744, respectively.
Second, the reincarceration rate affects the cost-effectiveness of the intervention: The higher the reincarceration rate, the greater the potential cost savings.


l number of inmates or throughout an entire state prison system. For simplicity in what follows, we imagine an intervention of sufficient magnitude so as to allow for shifts in quasi-fixed factors such as the amount of housing needed for inmates or t


ggesting that correctional education is an effective strategy for reducing recidivism.
When aggregating across 18 studies that used employment as an outcome, the odds of obtaining employment postrelease among inmates who participated in correctional


States has declined steadily in the past decade and a half, dropping from about 105,000 in 1997 (Sickmund et al., 2013). Despite this promising trend, incarceration rates among juve- niles are still far higher in the United States than in other devel


Juvenile offenders hail disproportionately from challenging circumstances. According to 2003 data from the nationally representative Survey of Youth in Residential Placement, 56 per- cent of incarcerated youth reported that they had been living with


, n.d.). Due to the need for accom- modations and regulatory documentation, students with disabilities who qualify for services under IDEA cost approximately 1.9 times as much to educate as those without disabilities (Chambers, Parrish, and Harr, 200


ities must serve a highly transient population of students who bring a widely varied set of educational and emotional needs (Sedlak and McPherson, 2010).
This chapter systematically reviews evidence about the effectiveness of educational inter- venti


ed some form of correctional education to those who did not. However, that approach is less well suited to studying the effectiveness of juvenile correctional education programs, since programs with an absence of correctional education are typically


es were identical to those described for the adult meta-analysis report (Davis et al., 2013), except that for the juvenile review, the manuscripts were required to describe the effects of an academic or vocational intervention on incarcerated juvenil


juveniles who received an intervention was compared with a group of incarcerated juveniles
26 How Effective Is Correctional Education, and Where Do We Go from Here?
who did not, or who received a different version of the intervention. The second type


 standards
Maryland Scientific Methods Scale
5 4
3
2 1
Joint Operational Definition
randomized, controlled trial with attrition below the liberal WWC threshold, or single-case designs with well established pre- and post- intervention trends.
Quasi-ex


-case design studies (Kratochwill et al., 2010). We follow these standards when rating the single-case designs included in our sys- tematic review. This means that we assign a level-5 rating on the Maryland Scale to studies that receive the highest r


esign, intervention, and dependent variables (n = 35)
 RAND RR564-3.1
of training in the data extraction process, with a subsequent online evaluation for norming, and with periodic norming feedback via email. The data extraction protocol for the juve


t the attrition rates of the treatment and control groups fell below the more liberal of the two attrition thresholds established by the WWC for a study to “Meet Standards.” We provide additional details about the calculation we used for this thresho


nitude of effects. We report mean gains to help clarify the magnitudes in a way that is comparable to our reporting for comparison-group studies.
 30 How Effective Is Correctional Education, and Where Do We Go from Here?
and was not limited to studie


iew to studies in which these interventions are administered within correctional facilities serving juveniles. The studies examine four types of outcomes: reading skills, diploma completion, postrelease employment, and recidivism, as measured by rear


 level-3 study (p = 0.36)
nonsignificant gain of 0.21 of a standard deviation across reading domains for group size of 4 versus 12 in level-5 randomized trial
(p = 0.65)
Gain of 0.21 of a standard deviation in reading for read 180 relative to default


ading studies reviewed by the WWC did not focus on incarcerated youth.
In our systematic review of Corrective Reading implemented in juvenile correctional facilities, we consider four studies that meet an evidence level of 2 or higher on the Maryland


alizing the WWC and Maryland Scales in corresponding ways.
 a Systematic review of Correctional Education programs for Incarcerated Juveniles 33
rectly per minute was 3.57 per week, which the authors compared to an expected gain of 1 word per week fo


keford (2002) study, which was undertaken with six students ages 12–21 for an average of 20 one-hour lessons, was 9.2 words read correctly per minute, on a mean baseline of about 77 words per minute. Relative to the baseline level, this represents ab


ring Corrective Reading with smaller versus larger instructional groups included 20 students ages 13–17 receiving instruction for about 21 one-hour sessions. The findings for use of Corrective Reading in smaller groups (1:4 instead of 1:12) were subs


orrective Reading shows some promise. This promise is best substantiated with lower-level skills like word identification and decoding.
Computer-Assisted Instruction
Research Context
Meta-analyses of the effects of computer-assisted learning outside


ease of 0.11 of a standard deviation, or 4 per- centile points, and on general literacy achievement, with an average increase of 0.31 of a stan- dard deviation, or 12 percentile points. Based on eight studies, four of which overlapped with
7 We use t


tion with struggling adolescent readers.
Studies with Ineligible (Level 1) Designs in Correctional Settings
As part of our consideration of the research context, we did find one study of the aforemen- tioned interventions that was administered in a c


on greater on the Cali- fornia Achievement Test than for the control group. The latter difference was also statistically significant (p = 0.011), though the one-year effect could be rated only a 4 on the Maryland Scale due to the small proportion of


assessed with a computer-adaptive cloze (i.e., fill-in- the-blank) reading assessment developed by TiR but validated against the Qualitative Read- ing Inventory (Leslie and Caldwell, 2000) and the FCAT.9 Students in the treatment group showed gains


, each of which is described as including competency-based attributes. Competency-based learn- ing is an approach in which students progress at their own pace, earning credit not for the time
9 The correlations were reported to be 0.7 with QIR and 0.


ggregate, school-level data from four comparison schools. Given the lack of a same-level comparison group, we assign it a rating of 1 on the Maryland Scale. The study focused on the GED completion rates in academic classes taught by the author in one


a control condition was incarceration in a default juvenile justice program in Florida. Unlike the default program, which featured traditional academic instruction, the Avon Park Youth Academy used an inten- sive, personalized, competency-based instr


ram.) The comparison group of 20 students
Preponderance of Evidence
Recidivism Effects
Employment Effects
n participants = 714 n Studies = 1
n participants = 895 n Studies = 3
personalized
and intensive
instruction
Effects: 1 percentage-point increas


E: We do not provide Maryland Scale or WWC effectiveness ratings, because the number of studies is small and some have very few students. thus, we think it is premature to declare any of these interventions effective or ineffective based on available


the gains for 75 students assigned to group instruction. The total battery score included mathematics, reading, and language skills. In the individualized scenario, lessons and activities were tailored to students’ prior skill assessments; in the gr


eer-managed and teacher- managed classrooms. However, given that the study was underpowered with only 38 students, only a large effect would be sufficient to reject the null hypothesis. Thus, the fact that the effect estimate was negative in magnitud


sidered the relative costs of each model.
Other Remedial Instruction Programs
Research Context
In recent years, a growing body of literature has questioned the effectiveness of remedial educa- tion for improving student outcomes. However, this litera


studies, by Murph and McCormick (1985) and Heward and colleagues (1980), use single-case designs and focus on improvement in fundamental, reading-related life skills—namely, reading nine road signs in the former study and filling out an entry-level


eworthy gain of 16 per- centage points on students’ writing assignments after several months of instruction, but it is unclear how well the students would have fared with writing instruction that did not include those prompts.
In short, the research


erence was statistically significant (p = 0.015). Because the treatment and comparison groups were both identified (at least by teachers) as learning dis-
a Systematic review of Correctional Education programs for Incarcerated Juveniles 47
abled and


eated students may have had shorter sentences or other unobserved differences that may at least partially explain the treatment effects, and thus the evidence supporting the Orton/Gillingham program remains underdeveloped. Archwamety and Katsiyannis’


out a variety of programs designed to reduce recidi- vism. His study, which included studies published between 1958 and 2002, differed from ours in that it included both education and non-education programs, it focused on recidi- vism as the sole out


uctional pro- gram during the intervention period. This is possible because all were 18 years of age or older.) Students were not randomly assigned to the program, but the analysis adjusted for 17 baseline demographic and risk-related covariates, so


percent) among those who took the GED. The study rates a level 2 on the Maryland Scale because it did not adjust for (or report on) baseline differences between the two cohorts, and because it did not adjust for secular time trends that may have acc


e at levels 2 and 3, respectively, on the Maryland Scale, as estimating the causal impact of the GED on recidivism. Still, the studies help to illuminate the association between GED completion and postrelease recidivism.
The broader evidence on GED a


at all juveniles are expected to pursue a high school diploma or GED while incarcer- ated, we did not identify studies that specifically examined the effects of GED program par- ticipation (relative to no participation) for juvenile offenders. Howeve


ificant effect, its sample restriction and inclusion of post-baseline controls lead us to use the unadjusted rates instead. The comparison is rated a level 2 on the Maryland Scale.
Summary
The preponderance of evidence for earning a GED while incarce


small in terms of sample sizes, we mostly refrain from giving definitive pronouncements or ratings about the effectiveness of any particular type of intervention. Instead, we comment on the preponderance of evidence for each intervention category, b


well-executed randomized trials, though the two studies varied in size. The Fast For- Word randomized trial included only 51 students, again providing limited statistical power, but the Read 180 randomized trial was well powered, with 1,245 students;


ime and Delinquency’s (2009) Avon Park study suggest that such studies, though challenging to undertake, are feasible. The lit- erature is also ripe for rigorous evaluations of natural experiments such as Aizer and Doyle’s (2013) study of the effects


pplies to the personalized interventions we reviewed other than Avon Park, the vocational education/CTE interventions, and GED completion as an intervention.
In fact, the benefits of earning a GED while incarcerated, though estimated as positive in t


scussion of what the survey results inform us about the field of correctional education for incarcerated adults.
Approach
Survey Design
The purpose of the RAND Correctional Education Survey was to gather information about the organization and deliver


rrectional Education Association.
Fielding the Survey
An advance letter from RAND accompanied by a letter by the BJA and the U.S. Department of Education explaining the importance of the survey was sent to each director approximately two weeks before


and by type of lead agency responsible for administering adult correc- tional education within states. Because this is a census of all state correctional education pro- grams, we do not calculate inferential statistics. Using data from the Bureau of


(100%)
4 (57%)
6 (86%)
            Other 171232 (37%) (41%) (30%) (29%)
 total number of states responding
46 29 10 7
 nOtE: percent represents the percentage for each column of the number of states who responded.
(GED) courses, and vocational skills


6
  nOtE: percent represents the percentage for each column of the number of states who responded.
recession and budget cuts, some states might change their requirements to make correctional education voluntary as one way of trimming costs. In fact,


550,286 (n = 7)
–20% (n = 7)
Large
$633,014,800 (n = 5)
$529,846,167 (n = 6)
–10% (n = 5)
2100 (4%) (3%) (0%) (0%)
46 29 10 7
  nOtES: respondents were asked to check all that apply. therefore, there is overlap in the responses between the first two


in FY2012
(number of states)
Mean change in dollars per studenta
(number of states the change calculation is based on)
Overall
$3,479 (n = 24)
$3,370 (n = 21)
–5% (n = 23)
Small
$1,710 (n = 13)
$1,590 (n = 19)
4% (n = 13)
By Size of State
Medium
$1,2


ncreases for teachers/instructors
Staff furloughs of teachers/ instructors were made
reduced salaries and/or benefits for teachers/instructors
reduced or eliminated contracts with community or technical colleges
reduced the number of course offerings


  FY2009
FY2012
Mean change in academic program enrollmenta
8,321 (n = 31)
6,918 (n = 39)
–4%
   Mean number of students enrolled in vocational education/CtE programs
 FY2009
FY2012
Mean change in vocational education/CtE studentsa
3,935 (n = 30)
3,


nd three states had inmates help oversee computer labs (data not shown).
Postsecondary Education
Historically, a key piece of legislation that helped to make postsecondary education more avail- able to incarcerated adults is the Higher Education Act


ocational instructors who are contract personnel
 FY2009 2320
(n = 37) (n = 24) (n = 9) (n = 5)
FY2012 4390
(n = 41) (n = 28) (n = 8) (n = 5)
Mean change in number of 27% –10% 250% n/a vocational instructors who are
contract personnela
nOtE: n/a indi


east one of their state’s prison facilities had a computer lab, with the median number of facilities with a computer lab being 11 (data not shown).
The use of computers in correctional education programs is common. Thirty-nine states reported use of


tion Survey 69
  Type of Hardware or Networks Used
Desktop computers (standalone or networked)
Local area network (Lan)
Mobile laptops
Statewide or wide area network (Wan)
Closed-circuit tV
tablets (e.g., Kindles, ipads)
Other technology
total number


se changes, in turn, have implications when it comes to agency budgets and professional development needs of educators and present a number of logistical concerns when it comes to preparing to implement computer-based testing. We asked correctional e


 have with respect to the 2014 GED exam and the move to computer-based testing. Of the 31 states
ranD Correctional Education Survey 71
72 How Effective Is Correctional Education, and Where Do We Go from Here?
Table 4.14
Professional Development Train


2014 GED Exam and the Move to Computer-Based Testing
ranD Correctional Education Survey 73
  Areas of Concern
Length of time it will take to prepare students to take the GED exam
Cost to the institution or program of preparing for computer-based test


size, approximately two-thirds of states participated in the ESEA Title I, Part D and Workforce Investment Act, Title II programs. Only nine states indicated that their correctional education programs had received funding under the SCA and six states


itle II (also known as the adult Education Family Literacy act) (n = 18)
Carl D. perkins Career and
technical Education act (perkins act) (n = 28)
States’ higher education/aid resources (n = 6)
Mean
$26,014,500
$4,114,150
$1,306,031
Median
$284,000
$


udent.
The reductions in states’ correctional education budgets reportedly led to a dramatic con- traction in the capacity of academic education programs, and to a reduction in the number of students on average who participated in these programs. For


and 2012 in the mean number of vocational education/CTE instructors who were employees (8 percent and 24 percent, respectively). Combined, this suggests a modest expansion of voca- tional education/CTE programs in small and medium-sized states during


access to computer or to the Internet as a key barrier to using technology in the classroom. In terms of instructional methods that use some type of technology, only ten states reported that they had closed-circuit television, and only a few states


(Lockwood et al., 2013). The directors discussed pos- sible workarounds to help students, including the use of standalone calculators and having stu- dents practice writing in long-hand their essays before typing their answers on the computer. The d


 courses. Our survey results suggest that reinstatement of the Pell grants for this population may have a substantial effect in expanding postsecondary opportunities for state prisoners.
In recent years, there has been a growing interest in providing


ssion had on correctional education in the United States. Specifically, the results show that as budgets were reduced, the reported capacity for academic programs contracted, which led to a cor- responding drop in the number of incarcerated adults pa


 policymakers and state correctional education directors can make informed trade-offs in budget discussions. Where feasible, researchers should be encouraged to make as much use of administrative data as possible to help reduce evaluation costs.
Apar


of inmates who pursue it. What is clear is that well-designed research is needed to estimate and docu- ment the impact of the new GED on inmates’ educational skills, attainment, employment, and recidivism, as well as the implementation challenges it


mendations 83
84 How Effective Is Correctional Education, and Where Do We Go from Here?
individuals find and sustain employment and to assess the degree to which existing barriers to employment persist that may dampen the effects of having these chan


ngs. This suggests that the field is ripe for larger-scale randomized trials.
The field is also ripe for rigorous evaluations of natural experiments such as Aizer and Doyle’s (2013) study of the effects of juvenile incarceration using naturally occur


nce base and the unevenness of the research designs used to assess the evidence and identify promising prac- tices. There are four things that we recommend that the federal and state governments and philanthropy invest in to help further develop the


e treatment and comparison groups, and about the outcome measures used. Such a registry could also provide technical assistance and evaluation guidance for those working in the field. Throughout the course of the project, we have received repeated re


d certifications of the teachers, the instructional methods used by the teachers, the student-teacher ratio in class- rooms, and supplemental access to textbooks and technology. To the extent possible, we culled this information from the studies that


registry of correctional education evaluations would further aid in developing the evidence base in this field to help inform policy and programmatic deci- sionmaking. Given that we know that these programs are cost-effective, if these programs were


nally ill. All these changes in the correctional landscape have implications for how we think about how to provide academic and vocational education/CTE to incarcerated adults. For example, the movement in some states to have low-level offenders serv


would of course be useful for longitudinal educational data systems to include indicators of students’ involvement in the criminal justice systems. However, we recognize that the inclusion of such indicators may raise both logistical and privacy conc


ggests that correctional education programs are highly cost-effective in helping to reduce recidivism and improve postrelease employment outcomes. States will continue to operate in a reduced funding environment for at least the near future. The find


 or
american;
age: 13–17
58% with
emotional or
behavioral
disabilities
Mid-atlantic
Long-term
facility in a
correction
juvenile
State
teacher ratio
12:1 student:
Corrective
reading:
Corrective
4:1 student:
teacher ratio
reading:
Houchins
et al., 2008


Treat Compare n n
Demographics
Setting
Condition Treatment Comparison Citation Condition
analysis] [4 for Cat
relative gain: 0.21 SD (p < 0.001)
Inventory (SrI) score at end of intervention Scholastic reading
90 min., for 20 weeks a week, 5 days
677


quency Duration and
Compare n
Treat n
Demographics
Setting
Treatment Comparison Citation Condition Condition
points (p = 0.02) Employment: 5 8 percentage C: 64.4%, t: 72.4%
2
3
          postrelease Employment 1 year
27.1 percentage points (p < 0.01)


system
 na
  Individualized,
competency-
based
academic
instruction
 and tutoring
Diagnostic
in reading and
evaluation
math
  Muse, 1998
 and Minifie,
Hill, Minifie,
1984
 Scale 3 (and 3) Effect Maryland Size Estimate Outcome 2
–22 percentage (p = 0.


line 100% male; IQs: 70–79; 2.5
 100% classified as “educable mentally reading grade level: age: 15 to 18; mean baseline 100% male; retarded”;
4.6
100% under
no additional
demographic
information
age 21;
provided
  Mean age: 15.3;
baseline reading
gr


lorado Services
participation
education
vocational
in non-
participation
construction,
food, special
cooperative
Vocational
education
in facility
business,
services)
elective
(auto,
Wilson,
1994
points (p < 0.001) 7.6 percentage t: 13.1% C: 5.5%
GED


 (Mark all that apply):
_____Inmate benefits or welfare funds
_____State funding (e.g., department of corrections budget allocation)
____College or university funding
_____Private funding (e.g., foundations, religious/community group, individual dona


l Years 2009–2012, did your state’s correctional education programs (academic and/or vocational education/CTE) experience a decrease in funding as a result of budget cuts or other fiscal pressures?
_____Yes
_____No (Skip to 17)
ranD Correctional Educ


_________________________________________
_____Yes, for certain inmates participation in academic programs was changed to voluntary (Briefly describe): _____________________________________________________
_____No changes were made to our state’s pol


and Where Do We Go from Here?
19. What means are used to provide instruction for academic programs or vocational education/CTE courses offered: (Mark all that apply)
_____On-site instruction _____Video/satellite instruction
_____One-way
_____Interact


g requirement on your state’s correctional education population:
• • •
LIKERT SCALE
1=negative effect 3=no effect 5=positive effect
On the number of inmates who will be prepared to take the new GED exam On the length of time it will take to prepare i


endorses-findings-of-criminal-code-review/PARAMS/article/24023
Association of State Correctional Administrators, Member Survey of Education Programming and Services Tools and Member Survey of Alternative to GED Testing, 2013.
Bazos, A., and J. Hausma


ion Learning,” December 19, 2013. As of February 3, 2014: http://nextgenstacey.com/2013/12/19/shared-attributes-of-schools-implementing-personalized-learning/
Chlup, D. T., “Chronology of Corrections Education,” Focusing on Basics: Connecting Researc


ry of Correctional Education,” 1997. As of February 3, 2014: http://www.ceanational.org/history.htm
Gellar, A., I. Garfinkel, and B. Western, “The Effects of Incarceration on Employment and Wages: An Analysis of the Fragile Families Survey,” Princeto


Impact of Explicit Reading Instruction with Incarcerated Students,” Journal of Correctional Education, Vol. 59, No. 1, 2008, pp. 65–85.
*Jeffords, Charles R., and Scott McNitt, The Relationship Between Ged Attainment and Recidivism: An Evaluation Sum


 4 Report, Columbus, Ohio: The Ohio State University, December 2011.
Lockwood, Susan R., John M. Nally, John Dowdell, Jerry McGlone, and Steve Steurer, “Implementing the 2014 GED Exam and Computer-Based GED Testing in Correctional Facilities: A Guide


treet Smart Program, Madison, Wisc.: National Council on Crime and Delinquency, 2009.
National Governors Association and the National Association of State Budget Officers, The Fiscal Survey of States: Fall, 2010. Washington, D.C.: National Associatio


5.
Project READ, To Make a Difference, Silver Spring, Md.: National Criminal Justice Reference Service, 1978. As of February 3, 2014:
https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/Digitization/49939NCJRS.pdf
Public Law 89-10, Elementary and Secondary Education Act


rman, L. W., D. C. Gottfredeson, D. L. MacKenzie, J. Eck, P. Reuter, and S. Bushway, Preventing Crime: What Works, What Doesn’t, What’s Promising, Washington, D.C.: U.S. Office of Justice Programs, 1997.
*Shippen, Margaret E., Rhonda Collins Morton,


ducation Association, 2003.
Steurer, Stephen J., John Linton, John Nally, and Susan Lockwood, “The Top-Nine Reasons to Increase Correctional Education Programs,” Corrections Today, Vol. 72, No. 4, 2010, pp. 40–43.
Students at the Center, homepage, 20


sessment at Young Women’s Leadership Charter School,” 2010. As of February 3, 2014:
http://www.ed.gov/technology/draft-netp-2010/competency-based-assessment
———, “Competency-Based Learning or Personalized Learning,” 2011. As of February 3, 2014: http


t ex-offenders lack the knowledge, training, and skills to support a successful return to communities. Trying to reduce such high recidivism rates is partly why states devote resources to educating and training individuals in prison. This raises the


  CHILDREN AND FAMILIES EDUCATION AND THE ARTS ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INFRASTRUCTURE AND
TRANSPORTATION INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
TERRORIS


ant industry attention? (2) Can we model terrorism risk adequately to know how to administer ter- rorism insurance in a private marketplace? (3) Does access to terrorism risk insurance in and of itself make the nation more safe and secure? The answer


ver losses from incidents involving deep uncer- tainty that cannot be adequately quantified using present modeling approaches.
Terrorism insurance can contribute to making communities more resilient to terrorism events. Terrorism insurance can suppor


udes insurance lines covering crops, mortgage and title guarantees, medical mal- practice, flood, reinsurance, and life. TRIA further establishes policies for federal payments to insurers in the event of terrorist events, thresholds for when these po


d several of these claims and whether evidence exists to support them.
As Congress decides what steps to take before TRIA expires, answers to these three questions can help industry and government understand how national security concerns influ- ence


 the United States. Terrorist attacks against U.S. diplomatic missions and other U.S. institutions on foreign soil make up 28 percent
of all international attacks aimed at diplomatic missions and businesses.13 This high incidence rate indicates the p


 to recruit and enroll new recruits in sophisticated training programs that require consistency
and time seems to have greatly diminished during the past
ten years. If the pressure of overseas counterterrorism efforts remains at the current level, it


and military support from regional governments that are invested in ending these conflicts in favor of their allies of the same sect. To complicate matters, the removal of strong counterterror- ism partners in Tunisia and Egypt and the chaotic situa


g more complex and lethal attacks in the United States using weapons of mass destruction provides comfort, it may only be temporary. The robustness of this assertion will depend in part on global efforts to control the proliferation of chemical, biol


nited States is best characterized by conventional attacks using bombs, firearms, and arson. At the same time, existing terrorist groups aspire to conduct more complex and devastating attacks on targets in the United States. The possibility that in t


coordinated by al Qaeda, or even a wave of smaller attacks inspired by bin Laden’s proclamations.
In 2014, efforts to estimate terrorism risks have the benefit of more than a decade of experience to draw upon. The approx- imately 200 successful terro


logical, and possibly nuclear attacks. Sophisticated attacks such as those that were launched in London, Madrid, and Mumbai are certainly within the capabilities of known terrorist organizations should they assemble a group intent on attacking the Un


risk.37 First, while the domain of possible terrorist attacks is limit- less, any implemented model considers a finite set of attack types, target types, and target locations. Thus, by definition, any model of terrorism risk is limited by the scope


mpare with the Industry Aggregate Retention Threshold as currently specified in TRIA of $27.5 billion.
The Industry Aggregate Retention Threshold is a signifi- cant reference point for considerations of TRIA reauthoriza- tion. If the total insured lo


chanism to help the insurance industry segment risks that can be modeled from those that cannot.
The past decade of experience with terrorism provides a picture of terrorism involving relatively uncomplicated attacks with conventional weapons. If the


encourage better decisionmaking about what security to implement or risks to accept.
• Response and recovery: By establishing policies and mechanisms to cover losses, TRIA could improve resilience and recovery from terrorism events.
While each of the


ng guerrilla warfare and the war of attrition to fight tyrannical super- powers as we alongside the Mujahedin bled Russia for 10 years until it went bankrupt and was forced to withdraw in defeat. . . . So we are continuing this policy in bleeding Ame


st cost-effective and avoid unintentionally concentrating capital in activities or areas that are at a high risk of terrorism.
Our discussions with firms in many sectors over the past several years reinforce that this line of reasoning is considered.


 know for certain how markets would evolve without TRIA, the current state of terrorism markets and the industry experience in the months after 9/11 provide two reference points for consideration.
Insurance Markets with TRIA Enacted
The most common p


In a world where TRIA is renewed and insurance markets operate as they have since 2004, several factors could affect resilience and recovery:
• Firms could plan knowing what losses would be compensated. With TRIA in place, companies could decide what


ficiently.
• Established rules reduce litigation.
• Compensation is delayed by political deliberation and litigation.
• Rebuilding is delayed by uncertainty about compensation.
• Compensation may be less or allocated differently than economically opt


. Risk models based on historical events or theories of terrorist decisionmaking can estimate terror- ism risk if the future events are similar to the past. These models can also describe how severe the consequences of terrorism could be for specifie


the need for and effectiveness of TRIA this year and in the future, it should weigh these observations against the costs and other benefits of the legislation.
NOTES
1 Baird Webel, Terrorism Risk Insurance: Issue Analysis and Overview
of Current Prog


hn R. Parkinson, “NSA: ‘Over 50’ Terror Plots Foiled by Data Dragnets,” ABC News, June 18, 2013.
13 Mulhausen and McNeill, 2011.
14 Brian Michael Jenkins, Andrew Liepman, and Henry H. Willis,
Identifying Enemies Among Us: Evolving Terrorist Threats a


K. Kelly, Scot Hickey, and Samuel Neill, Terrorism Risk Modeling for Intelligence Analysis and Infrastructure Protection, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, TR-386-DHS, 2007, as of March 14, 2014: www. rand.org/t/TR386.html; Michael D. Greenber


(2007) reviewed the methodology used in terrorism risk models across the insurance industry. They found that the basic framework for estimating the industry exposure from an attack was similar across the industry. Thus, while Figure 4 is based on a


s is director of the RAND Homeland Security and Defense Center and a professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. He has applied risk analysis tools to resource allocation and risk management decisions in the areas of public health and emergency pre


tand the relationship between historical terrorism and potential insured losses.
Constructive peer reviews were provided by Andy Liepman at RAND and Adam Rose at the University of Southern California’s National Center for the Risk and Economic Analys


 CHILDREN AND FAMILIES EDUCATION AND THE ARTS ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INFRASTRUCTURE AND
TRANSPORTATION INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
TERRORISM


, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see the RAND permissions


ound Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
2.2. Estimate of Various Channels and Tiers Used by Participants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2.3. Proliferation and Variety of Exploit


tolen and sold on black markets (e.g., Joostbijl, 2014)
• websites throttled by Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks implemented by rented botnets available on the black market (e.g., Schwartz, 2010).
These black markets are growing in size a


re available.
Access to such markets, conversely, is getting tighter. Motivated, in part, by recent black market takedowns, more sophisticated markets are undertaking more rigorous and aggres- sive vetting of individuals. More transactions are taking


e goods, such as data records and credit card information; nonfungible goods, such as intellectual property), or which types of attacks will be most prevalent (e.g., persistent, targeted attacks; opportunistic, mass “smash-and-grab” attacks).
For Fur


ario is subject to typical market forces, with prices rising when demand is high and falling when it is low. Over time, good products squeeze out bad ones, and high-quality brands can command premium prices. Mergers and acquisitions occur, and deals


remains (e.g., Egelman, 2013).
We conducted this research primarily through more than two dozen interviews with subject-matter experts, carried out between October and December 2013. These experts included academics, security researchers, reporters,


l as to more targets. Barriers to entry were low for those with appropriate access and vetting. The risk was also low (compared with other criminal markets), at least initially, because law enforce- ment was ill equipped to track it (although they ar


e one-stop shopping. Some vendors advertise on multiple marketplaces; others stick to just a few online forums. Even within single forums or stores, there are different tiers of access for various products. Some underground organizations can reported


een consistent through time, the whole market is growing exponentially.
4 Another estimate breaks down the market thusly:
• 70 percent individuals or small groups
• 20 percent criminal organizations
• 5 percent cyberterrorists
• 4 percent state-spons