Update v0.3.1 research ledgers and coded source data

Add bounded observations and preparedness context; correct Moldova designating entities and Chan attribution semantics.

research/official_electoral_data.json

@@ -456,7 +456,7 @@
       "coverage_status": "partial",
       "official_source_id": "off-ro-2025-r1-aep-final",
       "as_of_date": "2026-08-12",
-      "notes": "Top-three extract; consult the official source for all candidates."
+      "notes": "Complete national contest field in this release."
     },
     {
       "result_id": "result-ro25r1-nicusor-dan",
@@ -475,7 +475,7 @@
       "coverage_status": "partial",
       "official_source_id": "off-ro-2025-r1-aep-final",
       "as_of_date": "2026-08-12",
-      "notes": "Top-three extract; consult the official source for all candidates."
+      "notes": "Complete national contest field in this release."
     },
     {
       "result_id": "result-ro25r1-crin-antonescu",
@@ -494,7 +494,7 @@
       "coverage_status": "partial",
       "official_source_id": "off-ro-2025-r1-aep-final",
       "as_of_date": "2026-08-12",
-      "notes": "Top-three extract; consult the official source for all candidates."
+      "notes": "Complete national contest field in this release."
     },
     {
       "result_id": "result-ro25r2-nicusor-dan",
@@ -542,7 +542,8 @@
       "geographic_unit_name": "Moldova",
       "contest_name": "Presidential election",
       "candidate_or_option": "Maia Sandu",
-      "party_or_affiliation": "PAS",
+      "party_or_affiliation": "",
+      "ballot_designating_entity": "PAS",
       "votes": 656852,
       "valid_vote_share": 0.424863408302,
       "rank": 1,
@@ -551,7 +552,7 @@
       "coverage_status": "partial",
       "official_source_id": "off-md-2024-pres-r1-xlsx",
       "as_of_date": "2026-08-12",
-      "notes": "Top-three extract; consult the official workbook for all candidates."
+      "notes": "Complete national contest field in this release."
     },
     {
       "result_id": "result-md24r1-alexandr-stoianoglo",
@@ -561,7 +562,8 @@
       "geographic_unit_name": "Moldova",
       "contest_name": "Presidential election",
       "candidate_or_option": "Alexandr Stoianoglo",
-      "party_or_affiliation": "PSRM-supported independent",
+      "party_or_affiliation": "",
+      "ballot_designating_entity": "PSRM",
       "votes": 401215,
       "valid_vote_share": 0.259512907568,
       "rank": 2,
@@ -570,7 +572,7 @@
       "coverage_status": "partial",
       "official_source_id": "off-md-2024-pres-r1-xlsx",
       "as_of_date": "2026-08-12",
-      "notes": "Top-three extract; consult the official workbook for all candidates."
+      "notes": "Complete national contest field in this release."
     },
     {
       "result_id": "result-md24r1-renato-usatii",
@@ -589,7 +591,7 @@
       "coverage_status": "partial",
       "official_source_id": "off-md-2024-pres-r1-xlsx",
       "as_of_date": "2026-08-12",
-      "notes": "Top-three extract; consult the official workbook for all candidates."
+      "notes": "Complete national contest field in this release."
     },
     {
       "result_id": "result-mdref-yes",
@@ -637,7 +639,8 @@
       "geographic_unit_name": "Moldova",
       "contest_name": "Presidential election",
       "candidate_or_option": "Maia Sandu",
-      "party_or_affiliation": "PAS",
+      "party_or_affiliation": "",
+      "ballot_designating_entity": "PAS",
       "votes": 930139,
       "valid_vote_share": 0.553466712762,
       "rank": 1,
@@ -656,7 +659,8 @@
       "geographic_unit_name": "Moldova",
       "contest_name": "Presidential election",
       "candidate_or_option": "Alexandr Stoianoglo",
-      "party_or_affiliation": "PSRM-supported independent",
+      "party_or_affiliation": "",
+      "ballot_designating_entity": "PSRM",
       "votes": 750430,
       "valid_vote_share": 0.446533287238,
       "rank": 2,
@@ -684,7 +688,7 @@
       "coverage_status": "partial",
       "official_source_id": "off-md-2025-parliament-xlsx",
       "as_of_date": "2026-08-12",
-      "notes": "Top-five vote extract; consult the official workbook and totalization report for all contestants and seat allocation."
+      "notes": "Complete national contest field in this release; official seats included."
     },
     {
       "result_id": "result-mdparl-patriotic-bloc",
@@ -703,7 +707,7 @@
       "coverage_status": "partial",
       "official_source_id": "off-md-2025-parliament-xlsx",
       "as_of_date": "2026-08-12",
-      "notes": "Top-five vote extract."
+      "notes": "Complete national contest field in this release; official seats included."
     },
     {
       "result_id": "result-mdparl-alternative-bloc",
@@ -722,7 +726,7 @@
       "coverage_status": "partial",
       "official_source_id": "off-md-2025-parliament-xlsx",
       "as_of_date": "2026-08-12",
-      "notes": "Top-five vote extract."
+      "notes": "Complete national contest field in this release; official seats included."
     },
     {
       "result_id": "result-mdparl-our-party",
@@ -741,7 +745,7 @@
       "coverage_status": "partial",
       "official_source_id": "off-md-2025-parliament-xlsx",
       "as_of_date": "2026-08-12",
-      "notes": "Top-five vote extract."
+      "notes": "Complete national contest field in this release; official seats included."
     },
     {
       "result_id": "result-mdparl-democracy-at-home",
@@ -760,7 +764,7 @@
       "coverage_status": "partial",
       "official_source_id": "off-md-2025-parliament-xlsx",
       "as_of_date": "2026-08-12",
-      "notes": "Top-five vote extract."
+      "notes": "Complete national contest field in this release; official seats included."
     },
     {
       "result_id": "result-nh24-biden-write-in",

research/v0.3_extensions.json

@@ -722,11 +722,13 @@
     ["act-nh-kramer", "us-nh-2024-biden-robocall", "Steve Kramer", "commissioner_and_operator", "political_consultant", "admitted", "content commission, targeting and call operation", "clm-nh-001|clm-nh-002|clm-nh-003|clm-nh-012", "Acquitted of state criminal charges; separate federal civil and FCC outcomes remain."],
     ["act-nh-telecom", "us-nh-2024-biden-robocall", "Voice Broadcasting and Lingo Telecom", "delivery_infrastructure", "telecom_provider", "adjudicated", "call initiation, attestation and delivery", "clm-nh-004|clm-nh-005|clm-nh-007", "Different providers controlled different parts of the chain."],
     ["act-br-prep-tse", "br-2026-election-preparedness", "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral", "regulator_and_responder", "election_authority", "adjudicated", "rules, monitoring and enforcement", "clm-br-002|clm-br-003|clm-br-004|clm-br-005|clm-br-006|clm-br-007", "Preparedness actor, not manipulator."],
+    ["act-brprep-aggregate", "br-2026-election-preparedness", "Potential campaigns, AI providers, platforms and unidentified influence actors", "prospective_actor_set", "mixed_unknown", "unknown", "potential production, ranking, distribution and compliance", "clm-br-002|clm-br-003|clm-br-004|clm-br-005", "Aggregate preparedness category defined by the regulatory scope; it does not identify a specific 2026 operator or deployment."],
     ["act-br-avatar-campaign", "br-2026-bolsonaro-ai-avatar", "Flávio Bolsonaro campaign or allied producer", "deployer_and_beneficiary", "campaign", "credibly_reported", "synthetic persona and campaign distribution", "clm-br-010|clm-br-011|clm-br-020", "Exact producer and Jair Bolsonaro authorisation remain unresolved."],
+    ["act-usprep-aggregate", "us-2026-midterms-preparedness", "Potential campaigns, political committees, foreign influence actors, platforms, telecom and AI providers", "prospective_actor_set", "mixed_unknown", "unknown", "potential production, ranking, distribution and telecom delivery", "clm-us26-003|clm-us26-004|clm-us26-005", "Aggregate preparedness category; prior-cycle evidence and governance gaps do not establish a specific new 2026 operation."],
     ["act-us26-nrsc", "us-2026-campaign-deepfake-ads", "National Republican Senatorial Committee", "sponsor_and_deployer", "political_committee", "admitted", "synthetic opponent performance and distribution", "clm-us26-008|clm-us26-009|clm-us26-014|clm-us26-016", "Other ads in the aggregate case have different sponsors."],
     ["act-usca11-wiener", "us-ca11-2026-wiener-conniechan-chatbot", "Scott Wiener for Congress", "commissioner_deployer_and_data_controller", "campaign", "admitted", "deployment, configurable framing, interface, promotion and policy-permitted log access", "clm-usca11-001|clm-usca11-002|clm-usca11-004|clm-usca11-007|clm-usca11-011", "Technical constructor, exact prompt, retrieval sources, guardrails and actual retention/use of logs were not publicly established."],
     ["act-usca11-anthropic", "us-ca11-2026-wiener-conniechan-chatbot", "Anthropic", "model_provider", "ai_provider", "credibly_reported", "base-model capability", "clm-usca11-003", "No evidence Anthropic designed, approved, financed, or operated this campaign deployment."],
-    ["act-usca11-chan", "us-ca11-2026-wiener-conniechan-chatbot", "Connie Chan", "represented_target", "candidate", "established", "first-person identity and political record simulated", "clm-usca11-004|clm-usca11-005|clm-usca11-011", "The site disclosed that it was not affiliated with or endorsed by Chan."]
+    ["act-usca11-chan", "us-ca11-2026-wiener-conniechan-chatbot", "Connie Chan", "represented_target", "candidate", "credibly_reported", "first-person identity and political record simulated", "clm-usca11-004|clm-usca11-005|clm-usca11-011", "The site disclosed that it was not affiliated with or endorsed by Chan."]
   ],
   "technology_uses": [
     ["tech-ro24-ranking", "ro-2024-presidential-annulment", "TikTok", "recommender and integrity systems", "", "proprietary_platform", "ranking_and_amplification", "confirmed", "platform_and_official_records", "established_evidence", "clm-ro-002|clm-ro-003|clm-ro-005", "Generative AI was not established as a material driver."],
@@ -734,7 +736,9 @@
     ["tech-md24-genai", "md-2024-presidential-referendum", "unknown", "synthetic impersonation tools", "unknown", "unknown", "supporting_content_generation", "confirmed", "observer_and_investigation_records", "established_evidence", "clm-md-006", "AI was one layer within a predominantly non-AI hybrid operation."],
     ["tech-md25-mixed", "md-2025-parliamentary-linked-network", "unknown", "AI videos, bots and platform recommendation systems", "unknown", "mixed_unknown", "generation_and_amplification", "confirmed", "observer_and_technical_investigation", "established_evidence", "clm-md-012|clm-md-015|clm-md-017", "Exact models and automation stack are unknown."],
     ["tech-nh-voice", "us-nh-2024-biden-robocall", "ElevenLabs", "AI voice-cloning service", "unknown", "hosted_proprietary", "voice_generation", "confirmed", "creator_reporting", "established_evidence", "clm-nh-001|clm-nh-003", "Provider identification is supported by creator reporting; the FCC orders establish artificial voice but do not name every tool in the production chain."],
+    ["tech-brprep-aggregate", "br-2026-election-preparedness", "unknown_or_multiple", "generative AI, recommender and disclosure-compliance systems", "unknown", "mixed_unknown", "prospective_generation_ranking_and_compliance", "regulated_or_monitored_not_case_deployment", "regulatory_scope_and_preparedness_sources", "established_evidence", "clm-br-002|clm-br-003|clm-br-004|clm-br-005|clm-br-006|clm-br-007", "Aggregate preparedness row. The rules establish covered capabilities, providers and response duties, not an exact model, provider stack or specific manipulative deployment."],
     ["tech-br-avatar", "br-2026-bolsonaro-ai-avatar", "unknown", "synthetic image-and-voice avatar system", "unknown", "unknown", "avatar_generation", "confirmed", "content_and_reporting", "established_evidence", "clm-br-010|clm-br-011", "The public record does not identify the model or provider."],
+    ["tech-usprep-aggregate", "us-2026-midterms-preparedness", "unknown_or_multiple", "generative AI, synthetic-media, platform and telecom systems", "unknown", "mixed_unknown", "prospective_generation_distribution_and_telecom", "prior_cycle_observed_current_cycle_monitored", "official_risk_assessment_legislative_tracker_and_prior_cycle_records", "established_evidence", "clm-us26-002|clm-us26-003|clm-us26-004|clm-us26-005|clm-us26-006", "Aggregate preparedness row. The evidence establishes regulation, prior-cycle use and monitored capability categories; it does not identify an exact model, provider stack or new 2026 operation."],
     ["tech-us26-ads", "us-2026-campaign-deepfake-ads", "unknown", "campaign video-generation and face/voice synthesis tools", "unknown", "unknown", "synthetic_video_generation", "confirmed", "campaign_artifact_and_reporting", "established_evidence", "clm-us26-008|clm-us26-011|clm-us26-014", "Do not infer a frontier-model provider from output appearance."],
     ["tech-usca11-claude", "us-ca11-2026-wiener-conniechan-chatbot", "Anthropic", "Claude", "unknown", "closed_hosted_product", "interactive_text_generation", "confirmed", "campaign_statement_and_direct_observation", "established_evidence", "clm-usca11-003|clm-usca11-004", "Exact model, API or consumer route, system prompt, retrieval, context and safety settings were not disclosed."],
     ["tech-usca11-stack", "us-ca11-2026-wiener-conniechan-chatbot", "Amazon Web Services|Google", "hosting and analytics stack", "unknown", "commercial_infrastructure", "hosting_analytics_and_data_capture", "reported", "privacy_policy", "established_evidence", "clm-usca11-007", "Infrastructure listing does not establish which service saw which fields."]
@@ -753,6 +757,7 @@
     ["q-ro25-likes", "ro-2025-presidential-repeat", "clm-ro-015", "likes", 681000, "at_least", "Facebook|Instagram|TikTok", "2024-12_to_2025-06-06", "engagement_events", "unknown", "no", "researcher_aggregated_platform_metrics", "src-ro-dfrlab-repeat-20250826", "Likes are not exposure or persuasion."],
     ["q-md24-fb-followers", "md-2024-presidential-referendum", "clm-md-014", "followers", 4200, "about", "Facebook", "at_takedown_2024-10-11", "page_followers", "unknown", "no", "platform_reported", "src-md-meta-threat-reporting", "Meta said most followers were outside Moldova or indicated fake engagement."],
     ["q-md24-ig-followers", "md-2024-presidential-referendum", "clm-md-014", "followers", 335000, "about", "Instagram", "at_takedown_2024-10-11", "account_followers", "unknown", "no", "platform_reported", "src-md-meta-threat-reporting", "Meta said most followers were outside Moldova or indicated fake engagement."],
+    ["q-md24-enforcement-accounts-transactions", "md-2024-presidential-referendum", "clm-md-008", "accounts_and_transactions", 138000, "more_than", "mixed_enforcement_records", "linked_investigations_cited_in_2026_report", "combined_accounts_and_transactions_across_linked_investigations", "unknown", "no", "observer_reported_enforcement_aggregate", "src-md-odihr-parliament-202602", "This heterogeneous enforcement indicator combines accounts and transactions, may include repeated entities, and is not a count of recipients, exposed people, persuaded voters or unique accounts."],
     ["q-md25-accounts", "md-2025-parliamentary-linked-network", "clm-md-015", "accounts", 253, "exact_in_sample", "Facebook|Instagram|TikTok", "study_window", "analysed_network_sample", "not_applicable", "no", "researcher_measured", "src-md-dfrlab-infoleaders-20250924", "Sample, not the full operation."],
     ["q-md25-posts", "md-2025-parliamentary-linked-network", "clm-md-016", "posts", 28708, "exact_in_sample", "Facebook|Instagram|TikTok", "study_window", "content_volume", "not_applicable", "no", "researcher_measured", "src-md-dfrlab-infoleaders-20250924", "Content count, not audience."],
     ["q-md25-views", "md-2025-parliamentary-linked-network", "clm-md-016", "views", 55367950, "exact_in_sample", "Facebook|Instagram|TikTok", "study_window", "platform_view_events", "unknown", "no", "researcher_aggregated_platform_metrics", "src-md-dfrlab-infoleaders-20250924", "Cross-platform view events are non-unique and non-causal."],
@@ -761,9 +766,14 @@
     ["q-md25-comments", "md-2025-parliamentary-linked-network", "clm-md-016", "comments", 239016, "exact_in_sample", "Facebook|Instagram|TikTok", "study_window", "engagement_events", "unknown", "no", "researcher_aggregated_platform_metrics", "src-md-dfrlab-infoleaders-20250924", "Engagement is not belief or vote change."],
     ["q-nh-attempts", "us-nh-2024-biden-robocall", "clm-nh-004", "call_attempts", 9581, "exact", "telecom", "campaign_window", "delivery_attempts", "unknown", "no", "provider_records_in_enforcement", "src-us-fcc-kramer-final-pdf-20240926", "Attempts are not completed calls, listeners, unique recipients or voters."],
     ["q-nh-completed", "us-nh-2024-biden-robocall", "clm-nh-004", "completed_calls", 3978, "exact", "telecom", "campaign_window", "completed_call_records", "unknown", "no", "provider_records_in_enforcement", "src-us-fcc-kramer-final-pdf-20240926", "Completed calls are not necessarily unique listeners or persuaded voters."],
+    ["q-nh-kramer-forfeiture-usd", "us-nh-2024-biden-robocall", "clm-nh-007", "fine_forfeiture_usd", 6000000, "exact", "Federal Communications Commission", "forfeiture_order_2024-09-26", "separate_FCC_forfeiture_against_Steve_Kramer", "not_applicable", "no", "official_enforcement_order", "src-us-fcc-kramer-final-pdf-20240926", "This is the FCC forfeiture against Kramer, not the separate Lingo penalty and not a measure of electoral harm."],
+    ["q-nh-lingo-civil-penalty-usd", "us-nh-2024-biden-robocall", "clm-nh-007", "fine_civil_penalty_usd", 1000000, "exact", "Federal Communications Commission", "consent_decree_2024-08-21", "separate_Lingo_Telecom_civil_penalty", "not_applicable", "no", "official_consent_decree", "src-us-fcc-lingo-consent-202408", "This is the separate Lingo Telecom civil penalty and compliance plan, not the Kramer forfeiture and not a measure of electoral harm."],
+    ["q-us26-states-deepfake-laws", "us-2026-midterms-preparedness", "clm-us26-002", "states_with_enacted_political_deepfake_laws", 31, "exact", "state_legislation", "snapshot_2026-06-23", "United_States_states", "not_applicable", "no", "legislative_tracker_count", "src-us-ncsl-20260623", "Snapshot count only. Enactment, effective date, scope, prohibitions, disclosure requirements and litigation status differ by state."],
+    ["q-us26-reported-synthetic-ads", "us-2026-campaign-deepfake-ads", "clm-us26-010", "synthetic_ads_identified_in_reporting", 3, "at_least", "multiple_campaign_channels", "reporting_through_2026-03-28", "named_ads_in_reviewed_reporting", "not_applicable", "no", "independent_reporting_content_count", "src-us-reuters-midterms-20260328", "A lower-bound content count from reviewed reporting, not a census of campaign ads, impressions, targeting, unique exposure or electoral effects."],
     ["q-us26-talarico-youtube", "us-2026-campaign-deepfake-ads", "clm-us26-015", "views", 3700, "approximately", "YouTube", "snapshot_2026-08-11", "platform_view_events", "unknown", "no", "platform_snapshot", "src-us-nrsc-talarico-youtube", "Dynamic, non-unique view counter; excludes other platforms and paid impressions."],
     ["q-usca11-questions", "us-ca11-2026-wiener-conniechan-chatbot", "clm-usca11-006", "submitted_questions", 5058, "exact_campaign_report", "ConnieChan.ai", "first_27_hours", "interaction_events", "unknown", "no", "campaign_reported", "src-us-ca11-mission-20260807", "Not users, conversations, district voters, impressions, accepted answers, or outcomes; repeated and adversarial prompts possible."],
-    ["q-usca11-billboards", "us-ca11-2026-wiener-conniechan-chatbot", "clm-usca11-001", "billboards", 2, "exact_campaign_report", "physical", "August_2026", "promotional_placements", "not_applicable", "no", "campaign_reported", "src-us-ca11-sfgate-20260804", "No impression estimate is available."]
+    ["q-usca11-billboards", "us-ca11-2026-wiener-conniechan-chatbot", "clm-usca11-001", "billboards", 2, "exact_campaign_report", "physical", "August_2026", "promotional_placements", "not_applicable", "no", "campaign_reported", "src-us-ca11-sfgate-20260804", "No impression estimate is available."],
+    ["q-usca11-retention-policy-days", "us-ca11-2026-wiener-conniechan-chatbot", "clm-usca11-007", "maximum_conversation_retention_days", 90, "policy_maximum", "ConnieChan.ai", "privacy_policy_observed_2026-08-04", "conversation_log_retention_policy", "not_applicable", "no", "reporter_direct_observation_of_privacy_policy", "src-us-ca11-gazetteer-20260804", "The policy allowed retention for up to 90 days; this does not establish that every conversation was retained for 90 days or that staff reviewed any particular log." ]
   ],
   "agency_transfer_assessments": [
     ["ata-ro24", "ro-2024-presidential-annulment", "voter_attention_and_electoral_choice", "Romanian voters and election institutions", "campaign and influence-network operators plus platform ranking systems", "opaque promotion and recommender amplification", "network and ranking opacity", "low", "low", "persistent_campaign_period", "campaign operators and platform ranking systems", "unequal agenda-setting and impaired informed choice; institutional trust shock", "annulment and repeat election; individual behavioural effect unknown", "partial_chain_observed", "strong_inference", "clm-ro-002|clm-ro-003|clm-ro-006|clm-ro-007|clm-ro-013", "Generative AI was not established as material; sponsorship and causal vote effect remain unresolved."],