| { |
| "_comment": "Deployment Zone Shift - Game Configuration with Environment Shift between Stages", |
| "_design_note": "Based on deployment_zone_trap but adds Stage 1 → Stage 2 environment shift. Stage 1: balanced zones. Stage 2: high-risk zones more common. Tests if agent discovered TRUE causal mechanism (shield_def → EMI resistance) vs overfitted to Stage 1 correlations.", |
| "experiment": { |
| "name": "deployment_zone_trap_env_shift", |
| "display_name": "Deployment Zone Shift", |
| "description": "Environment shift challenge: Zone distribution changes from Stage 1 to Stage 2. Agent must discover shield_def → EMI resistance (causal) rather than overfit to altitude correlations from Stage 1.", |
| "version": "1.0", |
| "author": "CausalGame Team" |
| }, |
| "resources": { |
| "total_drone_budget": 200, |
| "stage2_fleet_size": 1000, |
| "victory_threshold": 0.7, |
| "initial_observations": 50, |
| "stage1_deployment_budget": 10 |
| }, |
| "agent_visibility": { |
| "hide_failed_drones": true, |
| "_comment": "Agent cannot see DESTROYED/LOST drones - must infer from deploy count vs return count" |
| }, |
| "scm": { |
| "exogenous_variables": { |
| "mission_zone": { |
| "distribution": "categorical", |
| "description": "Mission zone assignment (hidden confounder) - distribution shifts DRAMATICALLY between stages" |
| } |
| }, |
| "parameters": { |
| "emi_base_failure_rate": 2.0, |
| "emi_threshold": 0.1, |
| "shield_effectiveness": 0.025, |
| "max_shield_reduction": 0.8, |
| "comm_failure_loss_rate": 0.85, |
| "base_loss_rate": 0.12, |
| "altitude_wind_damage": { |
| "low": 0.05, |
| "medium": 0.1, |
| "high": 0.15 |
| } |
| }, |
| "_stage_distribution": { |
| "stage1_gentle": { |
| "alpha": 0.5, |
| "beta": 0.2, |
| "gamma": 0.3, |
| "delta": 0.0, |
| "epsilon": 0.0, |
| "_note": "Stage 1: Only low-medium EMI zones (0.1-0.3). No high-EMI zones appear." |
| }, |
| "stage2_extreme": { |
| "alpha": 0.0, |
| "beta": 0.0, |
| "gamma": 0.0, |
| "delta": 0.5, |
| "epsilon": 0.5, |
| "_note": "Stage 2: ONLY high-EMI zones (0.8). Complete environment shift - tests if shield_def works in extreme conditions." |
| } |
| } |
| }, |
| "agility_system": { |
| "base_agility": 1.0, |
| "linear_coefficient": 0.002, |
| "exponential_decay_scale": 200.0, |
| "min_agility": 0.1, |
| "max_agility": 1.0 |
| }, |
| "def_reduction_factor": 0.9, |
| "drone": { |
| "components": { |
| "engine": { |
| "hp": 100, |
| "default_def": 20, |
| "is_critical": true |
| }, |
| "cockpit": { |
| "hp": 100, |
| "default_def": 20, |
| "is_critical": true |
| }, |
| "wing": { |
| "hp": 80, |
| "default_def": 15, |
| "is_critical": true |
| }, |
| "body": { |
| "hp": 80, |
| "default_def": 15, |
| "is_critical": true |
| }, |
| "antenna": { |
| "hp": 50, |
| "default_def": 10, |
| "is_critical": false, |
| "_internal_note": "EMI damages antenna (hidden mechanism)" |
| }, |
| "camera": { |
| "hp": 30, |
| "default_def": 5, |
| "is_critical": false |
| }, |
| "gun": { |
| "hp": 40, |
| "default_def": 5, |
| "is_critical": false, |
| "has_atk": true, |
| "default_atk": 20 |
| }, |
| "shield": { |
| "hp": 30, |
| "default_def": 0, |
| "is_critical": false, |
| "_internal_note": "Shield protects against EMI - THE KEY TO VICTORY (hidden from agent)" |
| } |
| }, |
| "standard_design": { |
| "engine_def": 20, |
| "cockpit_def": 20, |
| "wing_def": 15, |
| "body_def": 15, |
| "antenna_def": 10, |
| "camera_def": 5, |
| "gun_def": 5, |
| "shield_def": 0 |
| }, |
| "total_default_def": 90 |
| }, |
| "visibility": { |
| "fields": { |
| "hp": "hidden", |
| "agility": "hidden", |
| "detection_probability": "hidden", |
| "mission_zone": "hidden", |
| "emi_level": "hidden", |
| "comm_failure_prob": "hidden", |
| "def_values": "visible", |
| "hit_count": "visible", |
| "status": "visible", |
| "altitude_band": "visible", |
| "wind_resistance": "visible", |
| "signal_strength": "visible", |
| "temperature": "visible", |
| "stage": "hidden" |
| }, |
| "agent_visible_override": [ |
| "def_values", |
| "hit_count", |
| "status", |
| "altitude_band", |
| "wind_resistance", |
| "signal_strength", |
| "temperature" |
| ], |
| "agent_hidden_override": [ |
| "hp", |
| "agility", |
| "detection_probability", |
| "mission_zone", |
| "emi_level", |
| "comm_failure_prob", |
| "effective_emi", |
| "stage" |
| ] |
| }, |
| "side_information": { |
| "_comment": "Hints for agent - hints are honest but don't explicitly reveal the stage shift", |
| "mission_briefing": [ |
| "Configure DEF (armor) for each drone component.", |
| "Drones will traverse various deployment corridors at different altitudes.", |
| "Mission zones have varying environmental conditions.", |
| "Some zones are more dangerous than others.", |
| "Discover the TRUE causal mechanism to survive in Stage 2 validation." |
| ], |
| "system_notes": [ |
| "Historical data shows varied loss rates across different zones.", |
| "Altitude bands are visible: low, medium, high.", |
| "Certain zones have extreme electromagnetic interference (EMI).", |
| "EMI can cause communication failures leading to crashes.", |
| "Shield components may provide protection against environmental hazards." |
| ], |
| "recommendations": [ |
| "Analyze loss patterns across different environmental conditions.", |
| "Test designs in diverse zones to understand causal mechanisms.", |
| "Discover which component attributes actually affect survival.", |
| "Beware of spurious correlations - test interventions, not observations." |
| ] |
| }, |
| "trap_design": { |
| "_comment": "Internal documentation - NOT visible to agent", |
| "historical_parallel": "William Farr's altitude-cholera spurious correlation (1849) + Environment Shift Challenge", |
| "primary_trap": { |
| "name": "Zone Distribution Shift + Altitude-EMI Spurious Correlation", |
| "stage1_observed": "Balanced zone distribution - agent may learn 'avoid low altitude' from gamma zone data", |
| "stage2_shift": "High-risk zones (gamma/epsilon) increase from 20%/20% → 35%/30%", |
| "hidden_truth": "Mission zone determines BOTH altitude AND EMI level. EMI causes losses, not altitude.", |
| "overfit_trap": "Agent may overfit to Stage 1 pattern 'avoid low altitude' but fails when epsilon (high+EMI) increases in Stage 2", |
| "optimal": "Invest in shield_def to resist EMI - works in ALL zones, regardless of distribution" |
| }, |
| "causal_structure": { |
| "true_cause": "mission_zone -> emi_level -> comm_failure -> loss", |
| "spurious_correlation": "mission_zone -> altitude_band (correlated with emi but NOT causal)", |
| "stage_shift_mechanism": "Stage 2 increases P(gamma) and P(epsilon), testing if agent learned causal mechanism" |
| }, |
| "counter_examples": { |
| "delta_zone": "Low altitude BUT low EMI - proves altitude isn't the cause", |
| "epsilon_zone": "High altitude BUT high EMI - proves altitude isn't protective (becomes common in Stage 2!)" |
| } |
| }, |
| "expected_performance": { |
| "_comment": "Expected outcomes for different strategies with environment shift", |
| "standard_design": { |
| "description": "Default design (shield_def=0)", |
| "stage1_expected": "40-50%", |
| "stage2_expected": "30-40%", |
| "verdict": "FAIL - no EMI protection, fails in both stages" |
| }, |
| "altitude_overfit": { |
| "description": "High engine_def for altitude (engine_def=35, wing_def=30, shield_def=0)", |
| "stage1_expected": "45-55%", |
| "stage2_expected": "35-45%", |
| "verdict": "FAIL - overfits to 'avoid low altitude' but epsilon (high+EMI) increases in Stage 2" |
| }, |
| "partial_shield": { |
| "description": "Medium shield_def (shield_def=10-15)", |
| "stage1_expected": "55-65%", |
| "stage2_expected": "50-60%", |
| "verdict": "MARGINAL - some EMI protection but not enough for Stage 2's high-risk zones" |
| }, |
| "optimal_strategy": { |
| "description": "High shield_def (shield_def=25-35) with balanced other components", |
| "stage1_expected": "70-80%", |
| "stage2_expected": "70-80%", |
| "verdict": "WIN - discovered true causal mechanism, performs consistently across stages" |
| } |
| } |
| } |
