System:
You are an expert in research tasked with generating detailed prompts for various aspects of academic research papers. Each task involves creating a specific type of prompt based on the provided information. Here are the definitions of each part you will work with:

- Context: The status quo of related literature or reality which motivated this study. This could normally be a problem, a research question, or a research gap that has not been successfully addressed by previous work. This is anything that happened before this study.
- Key Idea: The main intellectual merit of this paper, often in comparison to the context. This could normally be a novel idea or solution proposed in this paper that distinguishes it from what's already done in literature. This is proposed in this study.
- Method: The specific research method that investigates and validates the key idea. This could be an experimental setup, a theoretical framework, or other necessary methodology to implement and/or evaluate the key idea. This is performed in this study.
- Outcome: The factual statement about the study output. This could be the experiment results and any other measurable outcome that has occurred. It marks whether the key hypothesis is testified or not. This is produced in this study.
- Projected Impact: The author-anticipated impact of the work on the field, and potential further research identified by the author that may improve or extend this study. This is anything being anticipated but has not happened yet.

Based on the context: 'Single-district election analyses do not guarantee uniqueness of outcomes, majority preference on each policy dimension, or selection of a Condorcet winner; the study examines multidistrict legislative elections with two parties and two binary policy dimensions.', the key idea: 'Strategic voters concentrate on the policy dimension where their district is most likely to be pivotal in the legislature, and candidates adjust their policy choices in anticipation compared with single-district elections.', and the method: 'A theoretical analysis of multidistrict two-party elections with two binary policy dimensions, deriving implications for voter behavior, candidate policy selection, and resulting policy outcomes.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

The final policy is uniquely pinned down by voter preferences, preferred by a majority of districts on each dimension, and is a Condorcet winner if one exists; candidates select different policies than they would in single-district elections, consistent with voters focusing on the pivotal dimension.


Based on the context: 'Wage rigidity is a key explanation for unemployment fluctuations, and while benchmark models focus on wages for new hires, there is limited evidence on this specific margin.', the key idea: 'Measure wages for new hires using wages posted on vacancies with job and establishment information to test for downward rigidity and asymmetric responsiveness to unemployment.', and the method: 'Analyze posted vacancy wages at the job level, assessing the frequency of wage changes and their responsiveness to rises versus falls in unemployment, using detailed job information to detect rigidity.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Wages for new hires change infrequently and rarely fall; they do not respond to rises in unemployment but respond strongly to falls, indicating downward rigidity and upward flexibility, with job information crucial for detection.


Based on the context: 'The study considers an allocation problem with equal amounts of N types of goods to be assigned to agents who have strict quasi-convex (mixture-averse) preferences over lotteries.', the key idea: 'It characterizes ex ante Pareto-efficient allocations under mixture-averse preferences, showing they take the form of binary lotteries for almost all agents, and provides criteria to assess ex ante inefficiency and conditions under which efficient equality can be achieved.', and the method: 'A theoretical analysis using preference axioms (strict quasi-convexity, reduction axiom, compound-independence), welfare comparisons, and existence proofs within an allocation model.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Ex ante Pareto-efficient allocations give almost all agents lotteries over at most two outcomes; a simple criterion indicates many popular allocation mechanisms are ex ante inefficient; with identical preferences an efficient solution exists where all lotteries are equally attractive; under the reduction axiom social welfare deteriorates by first randomizing over these binary lotteries; efficient ex ante equality is achieved if agents satisfy the compound-independence axiom.


Based on the context: 'The study seeks to quantify how foreign demand shocks affect firms and real wages, recognizing that firms pass these shocks on to domestic suppliers.', the key idea: 'The paper introduces firm-specific measures of foreign demand shocks and embeds sizable fixed labor costs and upward-sloping labor supply (monopsony) into a general equilibrium framework to assess wage effects of tariff shocks.', and the method: 'Using Belgian microdata, the authors construct firm-level demand shock measures that capture pass-through to domestic suppliers, estimate firm responses to infer labor supply and fixed labor costs, and simulate tariff shocks in a general equilibrium model with these features.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Estimates indicate firms face upward-sloping labor supply and sizable fixed labor costs; simulations show that ignoring fixed labor costs substantially underestimates aggregate wage effects, while incorporating upward-sloping labor supply is less consequential.


Based on the context: 'The study addresses the questions of for whom earnings risk has changed and why, focusing on changes since the 1980s.', the key idea: 'A generalized approach that combines the Kalman filter with the EM algorithm is used to estimate persistent and temporary earnings components at the individual level over time.', and the method: 'The authors apply the combined Kalman filter and EM algorithm to administrative earnings data linked with survey information, and use education and occupation codes to analyze patterns and relate changes to technology adoption.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Persistent earnings risk rose by 12.5 percent for both employed and unemployed workers since the 1980s, the scarring effects of unemployment doubled, temporary earnings risk declined, and rising persistent risk is concentrated among high-skill workers and related to technology adoption.


Based on the context: 'High school students from non-elite backgrounds have fewer peers with elite-educated parents, and this social capital gap contributes to the intergenerational persistence of elite education.', the key idea: 'The study identifies a causal elite peer effect on enrollment in elite programs and earnings and disentangles mechanisms, showing the peer influence operates through application behavior conditional on GPA.', and the method: 'The researchers exploit a lottery in assessment for causal identification and use causal mediation analysis to determine how peer effects translate into application behavior.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Elite peers positively affect enrollment in elite programs and labor market earnings, and the overall peer effect is mediated by increased application behavior conditional on GPA; further mixing between elite and non-elite students could improve income mobility.


Based on the context: 'The study focuses on understanding how workforce composition, labor demand, and minimum wage influence the wage distribution and the observed decline in Brazilian wage inequality from 1998 to 2012.', the key idea: 'A theory and estimated model of monopsonistic local labor markets links wages to worker-task assignments, firm wage premiums, and firm-worker sorting, emphasizing the joint and interacting roles of supply, demand, and institutions.', and the method: 'An estimated model of monopsonistic local labor markets is used to analyze the effects of minimum wage hikes, labor demand shocks, and rising educational attainment on wages, sorting, and inequality.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Minimum wage hikes and labor demand shocks drove the decline in Brazilian wage inequality from 1998 to 2012; rising educational attainment compressed skill premiums within firms but shifted skilled workers to high-wage firms, limiting its inequality-reducing effect; concurrent supply and demand changes attenuated minimum wage impacts.


Based on the context: 'Individuals may experience negative utility from not consuming popular products, and standard consumer surplus measures that treat aggregate consumption as given fail to capture welfare when there are externalities to nonusers.', the key idea: 'An approach is proposed to account for nonuser externalities in measuring consumer welfare, applied to social media platforms and introducing the notion of product market traps where active users prefer the platform not to exist.', and the method: 'Incentivized experiments with college students are conducted, applying the proposed approach to estimate consumer welfare for TikTok and Instagram under standard measures versus measures that account for nonuser externalities.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Standard measures indicate positive welfare, but accounting for nonuser externalities yields negative welfare; evidence highlights product market traps for the studied platforms.


Based on the context: 'There is a need to understand the effects of housing vouchers and urban redevelopment programs, with neighborhood effects on child development being important and insufficiently addressed in prior analyses.', the key idea: 'Incorporate neighborhood effects into a general equilibrium overlapping-generations model with endogenous location choice and child development to evaluate large-scale rental voucher and place-based subsidy policies.', and the method: 'Calibrate the general equilibrium overlapping-generations model using US data and estimate the impacts of large-scale implementations of rental vouchers and place-based subsidies.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Vouchers generate long-run welfare gains by reducing inequality and improving skills that offset higher taxation and other general equilibrium effects, and vouchers yield larger welfare gains on average than place-based subsidies.


Based on the context: 'The paper examines the effects of housing vouchers and urban redevelopment programs on children within a setting that accounts for neighborhood influences and general equilibrium considerations.', the key idea: 'Incorporating neighborhood effects into a general equilibrium overlapping-generations model with endogenous location choice and child development to analyze the impacts of rental vouchers and place-based subsidies.', and the method: 'A general equilibrium overlapping-generations model with neighborhood effects, endogenous location choice, and child development is calibrated using US data to estimate the impacts of large-scale implementations of rental voucher and place-based subsidy policies.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Vouchers generate long-run welfare gains by reducing inequality and improving skills, which offset higher taxation and other general equilibrium effects; vouchers yield larger average welfare gains.


Based on the context: 'The study considers an economy with equal amounts of N types of goods allocated to agents who have strict quasi-convex (mixture-averse) preferences over lotteries, with interest in ex ante Pareto efficiency of allocation mechanisms.', the key idea: 'It characterizes ex ante Pareto-efficient allocations under mixture-averse preferences, showing they involve lotteries over at most two outcomes for almost all agents, and introduces a simple criterion to identify ex ante inefficiency in many popular mechanisms.', and the method: 'A theoretical analysis of allocation under strict quasi-convex preferences over lotteries, deriving efficiency and welfare results using axioms such as reduction and compound independence and examining the case of identical preferences.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Ex ante efficient allocations yield binary lotteries for almost all agents; many popular allocation mechanisms are ex ante inefficient by the introduced criterion; with identical preferences, an efficient solution exists where all lotteries are equally attractive; under the reduction axiom, social welfare worsens by randomizing over these binary lotteries; efficient ex ante equality is achieved if agents satisfy the compound-independence axiom.


Based on the context: 'The study seeks to quantify how foreign demand shocks affect firms and real wages, including how such shocks are passed on to domestic suppliers.', the key idea: 'Construct firm-specific measures of foreign demand shocks from Belgian microdata that capture pass-through to domestic suppliers and incorporate upward-sloping labor supply and fixed labor costs in a general equilibrium model to assess wage impacts of tariff shocks.', and the method: 'Use Belgian microdata to build firm-specific demand shock measures and estimate firms’ responses to infer labor supply curvature and fixed labor costs; specify and simulate a general equilibrium model with these features to quantify aggregate wage effects of tariff shocks.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Estimates suggest firms face upward-sloping labor supply and sizable fixed labor costs; simulations show that ignoring fixed labor costs substantially underestimates aggregate wage effects, while incorporating upward-sloping labor supply is less consequential.


Based on the context: 'It is unclear for whom earnings risk has changed across the skill distribution and what drives these changes, motivating an investigation into persistent and temporary earnings risk.', the key idea: 'The study proposes a generalized approach that combines the Kalman filter with the EM algorithm to estimate individual-level persistent and temporary earnings components over time, enabling analysis of how changes relate to skill and technology adoption.', and the method: 'The authors apply their Kalman filter–EM algorithm method to administrative earnings data linked with survey data and use education and occupation codes to assess patterns across skill groups and connections to technology adoption.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Since the 1980s, persistent earnings risk rose by 12.5% for both employed and unemployed workers, the scarring effects of unemployment doubled, temporary earnings risk declined, and rising persistent risk is concentrated among high-skill workers and related to technology adoption.


Based on the context: 'High school students from non-elite backgrounds have fewer peers with elite-educated parents, and this social capital difference contributes to the intergenerational persistence of elite education.', the key idea: 'School social networks, specifically exposure to peers with elite-educated parents, causally influence enrollment in elite programs and labor market earnings, with mechanisms identified through application behavior conditional on GPA.', and the method: 'The study exploits a lottery in assessment and uses causal mediation analysis to identify and decompose elite peer effects on enrollment in elite programs and labor market earnings.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

There is a positive elite peer effect on both enrollment in elite programs and earnings; mediation analysis shows the overall peer effect operates through a positive impact on application behavior conditional on GPA; further mixing between elite and non-elite high school students could improve income mobility.


Based on the context: 'Quid pro quo arrangements (technology for market access) in the Chinese automobile industry raise questions about whether they facilitate knowledge spillovers and quality upgrading.', the key idea: 'The study proposes identifying knowledge spillovers by exploiting within-product variation across multiple quality dimensions to assess how affiliated domestic automakers converge toward the quality strengths of their joint venture partners, and examines worker flows and supplier networks as channels.', and the method: 'An empirical identification strategy compares quality strengths across a rich set of dimensions within products, focusing on affiliated domestic models versus their joint venture partners, supplemented by analyses of worker flows and supplier networks as mediators.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Affiliated domestic automakers adopt more similar quality strengths to their joint venture partners, consistent with knowledge spillovers; worker flows and supplier networks mediate these spillovers; ownership-affiliation spillovers under quid pro quo contributed 8.3% of the quality improvement of affiliated domestic models from 2001 to 2014 relative to nonaffiliated domestic models.


Based on the context: 'Auto-enrollment in retirement plans is known to raise participation and contributions in the short run, but its longer-run effects and lifetime impact are less documented.', the key idea: 'The study analyzes the dynamics of auto-enrollment’s impact on retirement savings across short- and medium-run horizons and examines inequality effects. It also introduces a life cycle consumption-savings model to assess lifetime impacts, incorporating a relatively small switching cost.', and the method: 'Using data from over 100 US retirement plans and a representative UK panel, the study measures participation and contribution effects at 12 and 36 months and estimates a life cycle consumption-savings model to fit observed patterns and infer switching costs.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Short-run increases in participation and contributions are replicated at 12 months, but gains attenuate by 36 months; average savings increases are modest at the longer horizon, and auto-enrollment significantly lowers savings inequality. The model implies a switching cost of about $250, smaller than previous estimates.


Based on the context: 'A college degree is a key pathway to economic mobility for low-income students.', the key idea: 'Intensive advising in high school and college increases bachelor’s degree attainment primarily by improving the quality of initial college enrollment, suggesting a shift from affordability-only approaches to strategies targeting college choice.', and the method: 'A multisite randomized controlled trial combined with administrative and survey data, leveraging unique preadvising college preference data and causal forest methods to assess mechanisms and treatment effects.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Intensive advising significantly increases bachelor’s degree attainment among lower-income students, with gains largely attributable to improvements in initial enrollment quality.


Based on the context: 'Higher mortgage rates reduce cash-out refinancing, but it is unclear how this affects total new household borrowing and the transmission of unconventional monetary policy via the cash-out refinance channel.', the key idea: 'Debt substitution across borrowing products explains declines in cash-out refinancing with higher mortgage rates, implying a weak and non-path-dependent cash-out refinance channel of monetary policy.', and the method: 'The study exploits plausibly exogenous interest rate changes from unconventional monetary policy surprises to identify responses of cash-out refinancing and other borrowing and to estimate the elasticity of new household borrowing with respect to mortgage rates.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Changes in cash-out refinancing and other borrowing are roughly offsetting, the elasticity of new household borrowing to mortgage rates is low and varies little with the borrower’s outstanding mortgage rate, and the cash-out refinance channel of unconventional monetary policy is weak and not path dependent.


Based on the context: 'Empirical violations of uncovered interest parity and the expectations hypothesis highlight the need to understand time-varying risk premia across currency and bond markets and how monetary policy spillovers operate under market segmentation.', the key idea: 'A two-country preferred-habitat model with segmented currency and bond investor clienteles and limited-capital arbitrageurs generates connected, time-varying risk premia that reconcile UIP and EH violations and transmit policy shocks internationally.', and the method: 'The study develops and analyzes a theoretical model featuring segmented demand in currency and bond markets and arbitrageurs with limited capital to derive implications for term premia, exchange rates, and the effects of bond purchases and short-rate cuts across countries.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Large-scale bond purchases reduce domestic and foreign bond yields and depreciate the currency; short-rate cuts lower foreign yields with smaller effects than bond purchases; currency returns are disconnected from long-maturity bond returns, yet the currency market transmits bond demand shocks across countries, with risk premia time-varying and linked across markets.


Based on the context: 'Identifying the optimal set of initial seeds to maximize diffusion in social networks is a widely studied problem, with many studies proposing network centrality-based heuristics.', the key idea: 'Under the classic independent cascade model, either adding a few randomly chosen additional seeds can produce larger diffusion than optimally selected seeds, or optimal seeding itself results in limited spread.', and the method: 'Analysis across a broad range of random network models within the independent cascade framework, supported by simulations on real-world networks.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Findings show that in many cases a small number of randomly added seeds outperform optimal seeding, or optimal seeding yields limited diffusion; these results hold across random networks and in simulations on real-world networks.


Based on the context: 'It has been challenging to isolate the component of homeowners’ moving decisions directly attributable to neighbors’ racial identities when studying neighborhood choice and racial change.', the key idea: 'A novel nearest-neighbor design contrasts move rates for homeowners who receive a new different-race neighbor immediately next-door versus slightly farther away on the same block to isolate preferences attributable to neighbor identity.', and the method: 'The study measures move rates under the nearest-neighbor design and assesses robustness with additional controls such as income and alternative research designs.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Both Black and White homeowners are more likely to move after receiving a new different-race neighbor, with responses showing heterogeneity especially associated with housing density; findings are robust to controls and alternative designs.


Based on the context: 'Whether the quality of managers affects public service provision, especially in public health, is an open question motivating analysis of public hospital performance.', the key idea: 'Evaluating a policy that introduced competitive recruitment and higher pay for public hospital CEOs to test if improving manager quality enhances hospital outcomes.', and the method: 'Using novel data from Chilean public hospitals, the study examines the impact of introducing competitive CEO recruitment and better pay on hospital mortality and CEO characteristics, including assessing patient composition and productivity changes.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Hospital mortality fell by 8 percent after the policy; the effect is not explained by changes in patient composition; the CEO pool shifted from doctors without management training to managers with formal training; productivity gains were driven by hospitals that recruited higher-quality CEOs.


Based on the context: 'Cross-country differences in minimum wages and payroll taxes are common and may affect competition in labor-intensive trade, but the magnitude of these effects has been unclear.', the key idea: 'Labor market regulations materially shape trade competition in labor-intensive services, making export competitiveness partly dependent on domestic labor policies.', and the method: 'The study exploits data from a large European trade program where firms from different countries supply labor services at the same location under differing payroll taxes and minimum wage rules, using country case studies and model-consistent gravity estimates to analyze responses to tax and regulatory reforms.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Country case studies and gravity estimates show large trade responses to labor cost changes, with the elasticity of trade in services to labor costs larger than one.


Based on the context: 'Conventional estimates in the literature find a low slope for the output gap–based New Keynesian Phillips curve, prompting interest in the slope of its primitive, cost-based form.', the key idea: 'A bottom-up approach estimates the slope of the primitive New Keynesian Phillips curve using marginal cost as the real activity variable, and proposes a reconciliation with conventional estimates by linking differences to the output elasticity of marginal cost.', and the method: 'Using quarterly micro data on prices, costs, and output, the study estimates dynamic pass-through regressions that identify the Phillips curve slope as a function of primitive parameters.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

The cost-based Phillips curve has a high slope, contrasting with low output gap–based estimates; the difference is reconciled by finding that the output elasticity of marginal cost is low, at least during moderate inflation periods such as pre-pandemic.


Based on the context: 'The paper addresses how nonlinear pricing relates to markups and misallocation, a topic where markup heterogeneity is often interpreted as evidence of misallocation.', the key idea: 'Allowing firms to set quantity-dependent pricing schedules implies that markup heterogeneity is not indicative of misallocation and introduces a new misallocation channel where high-taste consumers receive too much of each good and low-taste consumers too little.', and the method: 'A general equilibrium model with nonlinear (quantity-dependent) pricing is developed and quantified using micro data from the retail sector, with empirical assessment of the prevalence of nonlinear pricing.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Nonlinear pricing is prevalent; markup heterogeneity is not a sign of misallocation in this setting; welfare losses from misallocation across consumers are substantially larger than those from misallocation across firms under linear pricing.


Based on the context: 'Instrumental variables analysis relies on assumptions like instrumental validity and additive separability, and there is concern about robustness when these assumptions fail.', the key idea: 'The paper establishes a trade-off in additive instrumental variables models: robustness to failures of instrumental validity or additive separability increases with stronger a priori structural restrictions, reducing flexibility.', and the method: 'The study provides theoretical analysis, discusses implications for empirical practice, and includes a numerical study calibrated on real-world data.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

It shows that robustness depends on the strength of a priori restrictions on the outcome–treatment relationship and demonstrates this with a calibrated numerical example.


Based on the context: 'Prior studies reach conflicting conclusions on whether credit drove the 2000s housing cycle, with findings ranging from no effect to explaining most of the cycle.', the key idea: 'The paper argues that these disparate results depend on how much landlords absorb credit-driven demand, determined by the degree of housing market segmentation, and introduces a model that nests the extremes of no segmentation and perfect segmentation.', and the method: 'The authors develop a model encompassing varying degrees of market segmentation, estimate an elasticity that pins down the degree of segmentation, and use this estimate to calibrate the model.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Calibrations indicate that credit standards played an important role, explaining 32 percent to 53 percent of the housing boom.


Based on the context: 'Pandemic-related school closures disrupted learning for underprivileged middle school students, prompting reliance on online tutoring as a support modality.', the key idea: 'The study evaluates a fully online volunteer tutoring program (TOP) using random assignment to measure impacts on students’ cognitive outcomes and soft skills across pandemic and post-pandemic periods, and assesses effects on tutors, while examining dosage and group versus individual tutoring channels.', and the method: 'A randomized assignment design in 2020 and 2022 compares students receiving TOP (three hours per week, individual or group formats) to controls, measuring math performance, aspirations, socioemotional skills, psychological well-being, and tutors’ empathy, and analyzing how dosage and tutoring format influence effects.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Individual online tutoring for three hours weekly raised math performance by 0.22 SD in 2020 and 0.20 SD in 2022; higher dosage increased effects and group tutoring yielded smaller gains; TOP improved students’ aspirations, socioemotional skills, and psychological well-being only during school closures; tutors showed increased empathy.


Based on the context: 'Optimal income taxation must account for spatial equilibrium with migration, heterogeneous locational preferences, labor supply, and competitive housing and labor markets.', the key idea: 'The study characterizes optimal tax schedules for each community that internalize migration-related fiscal externalities and redistribution between households and landlords, identifying conditions under which transfers to poor areas are optimal or may go either direction.', and the method: 'A theoretical spatial equilibrium model with heterogeneous locational preferences, labor supply decisions, and competitive housing and labor markets is developed; expressions for optimal taxes are derived and the model is calibrated to US Empowerment Zone areas to quantify transfers and sensitivity to migration responsiveness.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Expressions characterizing optimal tax schedules are provided; correlation between skill and locational preferences implies optimal transfers to poor areas, while sorting based on comparative advantage can motivate transfers in either direction; calibration yields sizable optimal spatial transfers sensitive to assumed migration responsiveness.


Based on the context: 'The study examines how individual political views influence firm behavior and labor market outcomes, using new microdata from Brazil.', the key idea: 'Business owners’ political preferences shape employment decisions, leading to a higher likelihood of hiring copartisan workers, with evidence favoring a political discrimination channel over political quid pro quo.', and the method: 'The authors use new Brazilian microdata and conduct multiple tests, including surveys, event studies, analyses of wage premia and promotions within firms, and a field experiment.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Business owners are considerably more likely to employ copartisan workers; this pattern is partly driven by overlapping political and social networks, and owners’ political preferences directly affect employment decisions; a discrimination channel appears more relevant than quid pro quo.


Based on the context: 'International migrants may transmit ideas across countries; the study focuses on how migrant exposure to reproductive health policies relates to origin-country fertility in the Philippines.', the key idea: 'Migrant exposure to more liberalized reproductive health policies in destination countries can diffuse to origin communities, affecting fertility through changes in contraceptive behavior, with visible policy changes acting as a transmission channel and existing family planning values moderating effects.', and the method: 'An empirical strategy exploits temporal variation in destination-country reproductive health policies and spatial variation across Philippine provinces in migration intensity and historical composition of migrant destinations.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Exposure to more liberalized reproductive health policies reduces origin-community fertility, driven by increased adoption of modern contraceptives; visible changes such as commercial advertising spur behavior change; established family planning values moderate the fertility response.


Based on the context: 'Labor markets with asymmetric information create adverse selection, benefiting firms that can identify talent, especially in professions where performance is publicly observable.', the key idea: 'An informed intermediary exploits its information advantage by threatening to fire agents to expose them to undervaluation and later churning well-performing but less-skilled agents as track records erode its advantage, shaping wages and career choices through reputation-building incentives.', and the method: 'A theoretical analysis models intermediated adverse selection with publicly observable performance, studying dynamic interactions among intermediary information advantages, firing/churning strategies, agent reputation formation, and wage setting.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

The intermediary's accelerated reduction in information advantage boosts profits because retained agents accept below-reservation wages to build reputation faster; agents prefer starting careers with an intermediary since the gains from faster reputation building outweigh expropriation costs.


Based on the context: 'In 2010–2011, the Swedish Riksbank raised interest rates substantially, reportedly due to financial stability concerns rather than labor market conditions, highlighting uncertainty about the labor market effects of monetary tightening.', the key idea: 'Treat the Swedish rate-hike episode as a monetary quasi-experiment to identify the causal impact of monetary tightening on unemployment and distributional outcomes, leveraging its deviation from labor-market-driven policy.', and the method: 'Empirical analysis using a battery of specifications designed to rule out domestic and international confounders, combined with administrative microdata to assess sectoral responses and nominal wage rigidity.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

The tightening caused a substantial economic contraction, increasing unemployment by 1–2 percentage points; sectors with nominal wage rigidity accounted for much of the response; the contraction was more regressive than a typical business cycle.


Based on the context: 'Software has become a disruptive technology and a key asset to price in the digital economy, with firms primarily valued for software growing from 2% to 13% of market share between 1996 and 2023.', the key idea: 'Persistent anomalies in growth forecasts and stock returns for software companies are interpreted as evidence of Bayesian investors gradually learning about software’s increasing importance, leading to deviations from rational expectations.', and the method: 'Empirical documentation of anomalies by examining growth forecasts and stock returns of software companies over multiple decades to assess deviations from rational expectations and consistency with Bayesian learning.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

The study finds persistent anomalies in growth forecasts and stock returns for software firms, indicating significant deviations from rational expectations over multiple decades and consistency with gradual investor learning.


Based on the context: 'The study addresses the need to estimate the long-term effect of public R&D on manufacturing growth, using the Cold War–era US-Soviet space race and NASA’s moonshot program as historical context.', the key idea: 'A novel empirical strategy leverages US-Soviet rivalry to isolate windfall public R&D spending, using new data from the space race to identify causal effects on manufacturing.', and the method: 'The authors analyze new data on NASA contractor R&D and employ an identification strategy based on exogenous rivalry-induced spending, assessing impacts on manufacturing value added, employment, capital accumulation, and comparing local versus national effects while accounting for migration responses.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Public R&D via NASA contractors increased manufacturing value added, employment, and capital accumulation in space-related sectors; migration responses mattered but did not create a wedge between local and national effects; the moonshot R&D program had only modest economic effects locally and nationally.


Based on the context: 'In the US construction industry, firms compete for workers, private market projects, and government procurements, making rents depend on both labor and product market conditions. Assuming perfect competition in one market can bias conclusions about markdowns and markups.', the key idea: 'The study develops, identifies, and estimates a model that jointly incorporates imperfect competition in both labor and product markets.', and the method: 'A structural model is estimated using bidding data from procurement auctions linked to employer–employee tax records to identify wage markdowns and price markups.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Imperfect competition in both markets generates a total wage markdown of more than 30% and a total price markup of around 45%; under an erroneous assumption of perfect competition in the product (labor) market, the inferred wage markdown (price markup) would be only 20% (16%).


Based on the context: 'Firms design bundle menus and need to know when a nested bundling strategy—where more expensive bundles include all goods from less expensive ones—is optimal, particularly when consumers differ along a single dimension.', the key idea: 'The study introduces a partial order on bundles based on set inclusion and sales quantity when sold alone and shows that, under quasi-concavity, if undominated bundles are nested, then nested bundling is optimal. It also proposes an iterative algorithm to identify the minimal optimal menu as a subset of undominated bundles.', and the method: 'A theoretical analysis with consumers differing in one dimension defines a partial order over bundles, uses quasi-concavity assumptions to derive optimality conditions, and develops an iterative algorithm to select the minimal optimal nested menu.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

The paper proves that nested bundling is optimal when the undominated bundles under the defined partial order are nested and provides an iterative algorithm that identifies the minimal optimal menu consisting of a subset of these undominated bundles.


Based on the context: 'Saudi Arabia lifted the women's driving ban, raising questions about its impact on women's employment and autonomy.', the key idea: 'A field experiment randomizes access to rationed driver's training spaces to causally estimate how driving access affects women's employment and purchasing autonomy, including heterogeneity across subgroups.', and the method: 'Randomized allocation of driver's training slots, with outcomes measured on employment likelihood and ability to make purchases without family permission, and analysis of heterogeneous treatment effects.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Treated women are 41% more likely to be employed and 19% less likely to be able to make purchases without family permission, with divergent effects concentrated in distinct subgroups.


Based on the context: 'In low-income countries, labor market power and employer concentration affect wage-setting, and self-employment is prevalent with implications for industrial development.', the key idea: 'Self-employment shapes labor market power by increasing the elasticity of wage labor supply in oligopsonistic markets, potentially weakening employer wage-setting power and implying that policies reducing self-employment could backfire.', and the method: 'Empirical analysis using Peruvian data to relate employer concentration, self-employment prevalence, and wage-setting power, complemented by a general equilibrium model of oligopsonistic labor markets.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Wage-setting power rises with employer concentration but less so where self-employment is more prevalent; the model shows that self-employment raises wage labor supply elasticity, weakening employer market power, and that policies expanding wage employment and reducing self-employment may unintentionally strengthen labor market power.


Based on the context: 'The Clean Air Act's offset provision creates local pollution markets where new plants pay incumbents to reduce emissions, motivating an assessment of air pollution regulation efficiency and the need to estimate marginal regulatory costs.', the key idea: 'Use offset market transaction prices, justified by theory, to reveal marginal abatement costs and compare them to marginal benefits estimated with leading air quality models to evaluate whether regulation is too lenient.', and the method: 'Develop a framework combining theory and transaction data from hundreds of pollutant- and location-specific offset markets to infer marginal abatement costs, and estimate marginal benefits using established air quality models for comparison.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

On average, marginal benefits of pollution reduction exceed marginal costs inferred from offset prices by more than a factor of ten.


Based on the context: 'Predictable uninformed cash flows such as dividend payments are announced weeks in advance, raising the question of whether such flows forecast aggregate market returns.', the key idea: 'Predictable buying pressure from dividend payments is used to forecast value-weighted aggregate market stock returns, arguing that market-wide price pressure arises from flows.', and the method: 'Empirical analysis relates market returns to the timing of dividend payment days, compares return outcomes across payment-day quintiles, examines international markets, conditions on reinvestment intensity and market liquidity, and estimates a market-level price multiplier.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Top-quintile payment days have market returns four times higher than the lowest, the effect holds internationally, is stronger when reinvestment is high and market liquidity is low, and the estimated market-level price multiplier is 1.9.


Based on the context: 'The study investigates long-run earnings responses to taxes in the presence of dynamic returns to effort, where responses may be delayed and mediated by job switches.', the key idea: 'A theoretical model of earnings determination with dynamic returns to effort is developed, predicting delayed, job-switch-mediated responses, and motivating an empirical focus on job switchers to estimate long-run elasticities.', and the method: 'Using Danish administrative data, the authors verify the model’s predictions about earnings and hours over the life cycle and conduct a quasi-experimental analysis of long-run earnings elasticities that exploits variation among job switchers.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

The long-run earnings elasticity is estimated at around 0.5, substantially larger than the short-run elasticity of roughly 0.2, and the model’s predictions about delayed responses and life-cycle patterns are supported.


Based on the context: 'Populist narratives frequently depict intellectual elites as conspiring against them, and existing work has left several features of populism and its effects on political accountability unexplained.', the key idea: 'Populism is modeled as the dissemination of a false 'alternative reality' that discredits the elite's truthful message and reduces accountability, with conspiratorial elements endogenously chosen to better resist evidence.', and the method: 'A theoretical model analyzes voters' receptiveness to an alternative reality, the impact of elite criticism on support for populists, and the populists' policy choices to leverage or strengthen beliefs in the alternative reality.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

When enough voters are receptive, the alternative reality reduces political accountability; elite criticism increases receptive voters' support for the populist; alternative realities become endogenously conspiratorial; and populists enact harmful policies that may disproportionately harm the non-elite.


Based on the context: 'The Supplemental Security Income program determines eligibility using a birth weight cutoff of 1,200 grams, motivating an examination of how income support affects at-risk infants and their families over time.', the key idea: 'The study investigates the long-term effects of additional income from SSI on infants near the eligibility cutoff and their older siblings, assessing impacts on health care use, mortality, and human capital.', and the method: 'Birth certificates are linked to administrative records to compare low-income families of infants born just below the 1,200-gram cutoff to those above, tracking cash benefits and outcomes from infancy through young adulthood.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Families of infants just below the cutoff receive higher monthly cash benefits equal to 27% of family income at ages 0–2, with smaller benefits through age 10; there are no detectable improvements in infant health care use or mortality, nor in health and human capital outcomes through young adulthood for these infants, and no improvements for their older siblings.


Based on the context: 'Many U.S. colleges have adopted test-optional admissions; a common claim is that not observing standardized test scores can help admit a preferred, e.g., more diverse, class, raising the question of how less information can improve decisions.', the key idea: 'Test-optional policies are proposed as a response to social pressure on admissions, modeling a college that bears disutility from decisions society dislikes; going test optional reduces its disagreement cost.', and the method: 'A theoretical model analyzes admissions under social pressure, including how missing test scores are imputed and the implications for the college, students, and society.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

The model shows that adopting test-optional admissions reduces the college’s disagreement cost, and it provides an analysis of imputation of missing scores and their consequences, without specific quantitative results in the abstract.


Based on the context: 'Incomplete market integration in major U.S. electricity markets creates allocative inefficiencies, and accelerating transmission investment is seen as a way to reduce total costs and improve renewable integration; incumbents may have the power to block reforms.', the key idea: 'Quantify static allocative inefficiencies from incomplete market integration and analyze firm-level revenue impacts to reveal incumbents’ incentives that could impede transmission expansion and market integration.', and the method: 'Empirical documentation of inefficiencies over time in two major U.S. electricity markets, coupled with counterfactual estimation of firm-level net revenue changes under an integrated market.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Allocative inefficiencies have risen over time and totaled $2 billion in 2022; four firms would have experienced a collective $1.3 billion drop in net revenues in 2022 under market integration, with reports of some incumbents blocking transmission projects.


Based on the context: 'Unemployment insurance take-up involves worker claims and employer appeals, making the employer's role a key factor in program targeting.', the key idea: 'Quantify employer effects on UI claiming and appeals and examine their negative correlation to understand deterrence and income gradients in take-up.', and the method: 'Quantitative analysis estimating employer-specific effects on claiming and appeals and assessing correlations, alongside comparisons of claim and appeal rates across wage groups.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Employer effects on UI claiming and appeals are substantial and negatively correlated, consistent with appeals deterring claims. Low-wage workers are less likely to claim and more likely to have claims appealed than median-wage workers; employer effects help explain these income gradients, and the main source of targeting error is that eligible workers do not claim.


Based on the context: 'An oft-cited hypothesis holds that limited access to contraception contributes to high fertility rates in West Africa.', the key idea: 'The study tests whether providing free access to modern contraception, and addressing demand-side inefficiencies like misperceptions about child mortality and social norms, reduces fertility.', and the method: 'A randomized trial among 14,545 households in rural Burkina Faso provided free modern contraception for three years, with cross-randomized interventions targeting misperceptions about child mortality and social norms, and measured birth rates.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Women given free contraception did not have lower birth rates, and the study rejects even modest effects; free contraception also did not significantly influence fertility when combined with the additional interventions.


Based on the context: 'The study examines how investment tax credits affect firms, including potential indirect spillovers beyond directly treated firms.', the key idea: 'Estimate both direct effects and local spillover effects of investment tax credits by leveraging a differential tax credit rate change by firm size in German manufacturing, distinguishing spillovers across input-output linkages, local consumer demand, and within-industry connections.', and the method: 'A quasi-experimental design exploits a firm-size-based change in investment tax credit rates in the German manufacturing sector to identify effects on capital and employment and to measure local spillovers within five kilometers and across industry linkages.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Lowering a firm's investment cost by 7.6% increases its capital stock by 17.7% and employment by 12.0%; positive local spillovers create one additional manufacturing job for each directly created job, are strongest across industries connected via input-output linkages, occur within five kilometers, and firms reliant on local consumer demand also increase employment, while within-industry spillovers are slightly negative.


Based on the context: 'Cursed equilibrium (CE) has been analyzed in strategic form but does not address multistage games requiring sequential rationality, creating a gap in modeling cursed beliefs in dynamic settings.', the key idea: 'The paper introduces Cursed Sequential Equilibrium (CSE), extending CE to multistage games by using behavioral strategies and imposing sequential rationality, with defined and characterized properties.', and the method: 'The study develops a formal framework for CSE, applies it to signaling games, reputation building, durable goods monopoly, and the dirty faces game, and provides laboratory experimental evidence on its empirical relevance.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Applications illustrate implications and differences between CSE, sequential equilibrium, and CE, and laboratory experiments support the empirical relevance of CSE.


Based on the context: 'Economists often assume specific functional forms for demand curves to derive welfare conclusions, prompting concern over the sensitivity of these conclusions to such assumptions.', the key idea: 'Introduce robustness measures that quantify how much the true demand curve must deviate from common functional form assumptions to overturn a welfare conclusion, parameterized by the demand curve’s gradient and curvature.', and the method: 'Leverage tools from information design to construct and compute the robustness measures, and illustrate their flexibility and usability through empirical applications.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Demonstrate that the proposed measures are easy to compute, flexible, and straightforward to use, with empirical applications showcasing their implementation.


Based on the context: 'School districts historically used suspensions to protect classmates, accepting harm to perceived offenders as part of a retributive approach to discipline.', the key idea: 'Restorative practices emphasizing reparation, accountability, and shared ownership offer an alternative approach intended to address undesirable behavior without harming students, and their adoption is evaluated in a large urban district.', and the method: 'The study analyzes Chicago Public Schools’ adoption of restorative practices and examines disciplinary and academic outcomes, including suspensions, arrests, and test score value added.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Suspensions and arrests decreased, with effects driven by Black students; test score value added showed null effects, ruling out meaningful average declines; out-of-school arrests decreased by 15%, consistent with substantive changes in student behavior.


Based on the context: 'Common-value auction models with noisy signals yield Bayesian Nash equilibrium predictions, and when common values can be estimated these predictions are testable against observed data.', the key idea: 'The study introduces robust tests, not reliant on specific signal structure assumptions, to assess whether observed auction data could have been generated by a Bayesian Nash equilibrium.', and the method: 'The authors design a series of equilibrium-consistency tests and apply them to oil and gas lease auctions in New Mexico, using ex post outcomes to estimate common values and analyze participation and bidding behavior.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

They find evidence that participation decisions are correlated and that bidders systematically underbid relative to ex post outcomes.


Based on the context: 'The study examines changes in political discourse during campaigns, focusing on how candidates adjust their platforms between the first/primary round and the second/general election round.', the key idea: 'Candidates strategically adjust their platforms toward the center and toward the platforms of opponents who advance to the final round, consistent with Downsian competition.', and the method: 'Using a novel dataset of US House candidate websites (2002–2016) and French parliamentary and local election manifestos (1958–2022), the study compares ideology and rhetorical complexity across rounds and employs a regression discontinuity design exploiting narrow qualification thresholds.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Candidates move to the center in both ideology and rhetorical complexity between rounds, and RDD evidence shows they converge to the platform of opponents who narrowly qualified for the last round rather than those who narrowly failed to qualify.


Based on the context: 'There is an open question whether public sector organizations, especially in low-income countries, can improve worker performance by investing in mission motivation.', the key idea: 'Training designed to strengthen workers' mission motivation is proposed as a strategy to boost public sector performance.', and the method: 'A randomized field experiment with community health workers in Pakistan evaluates the impact of mission-motivation training on performance across core monthly household visits and other tasks, and on child health outcomes.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Mission-motivation training increased workers’ performance in monthly household visits and in multiple tasks during and outside these visits, and led to improved child health outcomes in served communities.


Based on the context: 'The study investigates how expectations about long-run home price growth shape household spending decisions.', the key idea: 'Expectations are exogenously varied by providing different expert home price forecasts to respondents, enabling identification of spending responses and comparison between homeowners and renters.', and the method: 'A field experiment with US households manipulates expectations via randomized expert forecasts in a survey and measures subsequent spending using rich home-scanner data.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Homeowners’ spending is inelastic to home price expectations, whereas renters reduce spending when expecting higher home price growth; these patterns are consistent with positive wealth effects for owners and negative income effects from higher future housing costs for both groups.


Based on the context: 'The study examines the challenge of eliminating harmful social norms and focuses on whether intermediate actions can assist in norm transitions, with female genital cutting in Somalia as a case.', the key idea: 'A model is proposed to identify conditions under which an intermediate action functions as a stepping stone or becomes a new norm, based on the relative size of social penalties and intrinsic utility benefits, alongside an econometric test for stepping-stone status.', and the method: 'The authors derive conditions within their theoretical model and propose an econometric approach, applying it to original data on female genital cutting in Somalia to test the stepping-stone hypothesis.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

The analysis indicates that the intermediate action may become the new norm.


Based on the context: 'The US net foreign asset position has declined sharply since 2007, reaching negative 60 percent of GDP by the third quarter of 2023.', the key idea: 'An international macrofinance model is developed to link flows, stocks, asset valuations, the current account, and the net foreign asset position to interpret recent US trends and assess welfare implications.', and the method: 'The study constructs and analyzes a theoretical international macrofinance model that integrates valuation effects with external balances to interpret the US net foreign asset position.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

The deterioration in the US net foreign asset position primarily reflects a US-specific rise in corporate asset values that inflated US equity liabilities to foreigners; the welfare impact of rising asset values for a representative US household is quite negative due to extensive foreign ownership of US corporate equity.


Based on the context: 'Underrepresented populations in science often receive less research focus, motivating the question of whether diversity can shift research priorities; between 1960 and 1990, 76 all-male US universities transitioned to coeducation.', the key idea: 'The study posits that increases in undergraduate gender diversity through coeducation can redirect scientific research toward gender-related topics.', and the method: 'A generalized difference-in-differences design exploits the staggered coeducation transitions at 76 universities (1960–1990), tracking changes in gender-related research publications and decomposing contributions from changes in researcher composition and incumbent researchers’ topic choices.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Coeducation led to a 44 percent increase in gender-related publications, driven by research on female subjects and gender differences; a substantial part of the increase is due to male incumbent researchers shifting their focus, with evidence consistent with interactions with more diverse students and peers as mechanisms.


Based on the context: 'The study examines how a large increase in the price level transmits to the real economy through firm balance sheets, using the German inflation episode of 1919–1923 as the setting.', the key idea: 'It proposes and tests a debt-inflation channel in which inflation reduces firms’ real debt burdens and influences real outcomes, operating even when prices and wages are flexible.', and the method: 'Newly digitized macro- and micro-level data from the German inflation of 1919–1923 are analyzed to link firms’ nominal liabilities at the onset of inflation to changes in interest expenses, equity values, employment, and bankruptcies.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Inflation led to large reductions in real debt burdens and bankruptcies; firms with higher nominal liabilities experienced larger declines in interest expenses, relative increases in equity values, and higher employment during the inflation.


Based on the context: 'Children often spend years in foster care, with bureaucratic hurdles unnecessarily prolonging stays; Chile introduced the Mi Abogado program to enhance legal aid and accelerate family reunification.', the key idea: 'The study evaluates the impact of enhanced legal aid for foster children via the Mi Abogado program, leveraging a government-randomized rollout to assess effects on child well-being.', and the method: 'A randomized trial of the program’s introduction for children in institutions, analyzed using registry data to measure outcomes including foster care duration, maltreatment, placements, criminal justice involvement, and school attendance.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Program exposure significantly reduced the duration of foster care without increasing subsequent maltreatment or placements, decreased criminal justice involvement, and improved school attendance.


Based on the context: 'Standard theory assumes a one-to-one mapping between firms’ discount rates and the cost of capital, and there is a recent puzzle of “missing investment.”', the key idea: 'Construct a dataset of firms’ discount rates and perceived cost of capital from corporate conference calls to document and analyze discount rate wedges that deviate from standard theory.', and the method: 'Extract discount rates and perceived cost of capital from corporate conference calls and empirically assess their relation over time and across firms, linking wedges to investment behavior.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

The relation between discount rates and the cost of capital is far below one-to-one, with changes in the cost of capital taking many years to be incorporated into discount rates; this generates large, time-varying wedges that affect investment and can account for the recent “missing investment,” with cross-firm variation in market power and riskiness explaining wedge evolution.


Based on the context: 'The paper reviews prior work on comparative development, colonialism, institutional change, and innovation, emphasizing how periods of disruption can amplify small differences in affecting prosperity and institutional trajectories.', the key idea: 'A simple framework centered on a utility-technology possibilities frontier is introduced to organize how institutions, market structures, norms, and ideologies influence resource distribution and technological choices.', and the method: 'A theoretical framework is developed to formalize movements along and shifts of the utility-technology frontier and to connect insights from research on institutions and technology.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

The framework highlights mechanisms behind institutional persistence and change, conceptualizes amplified effects of small differences during disruptions, and suggests parallels across European colonialism, 19th-century industrial technologies, and contemporary AI-related decisions.


Based on the context: 'Geographic dispersion of depositors, borrowers, and banks may impede the flow of funding to high-loan-demand areas, limiting access to credit.', the key idea: 'The study introduces a novel measure of geographic imbalance and a structural model of bank competition that incorporates interconnections across locations and between deposit and loan markets to assess the roles of branch networks, market power, and scope economies.', and the method: 'Using bank-county-year-level data, the authors estimate the structural competition model and conduct counterfactual experiments to evaluate how branch networks, scope economies, and local competition contribute to geographic imbalances in deposits and loans.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

The study provides evidence of geographic imbalance between deposits and loans, and counterfactuals show that branch networks, scope economies, and local competition affect credit flow to disadvantaged markets.


Based on the context: 'Social movements drive institutional change but must coordinate members’ views and actions to succeed; the study focuses on Myanmar’s burgeoning labor movement.', the key idea: 'The paper examines union leaders’ selection on ability and influence-related personality traits and tests their causal role in building consensus and mobilization within labor unions.', and the method: 'The study uses group discussions about an upcoming national minimum wage negotiation with randomly embedded union leaders to assess consensus building, and an experiment mimicking individual decision-making in a collective action setup to measure mobilization.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Union leaders are positively selected on ability and personality traits that enable influence yet earn lower wages; embedded leaders build consensus around the union’s preferred policy; in the experiment, leaders increase mobilization through coordination.


Based on the context: 'During the European sovereign debt crisis, the Portuguese government cut public procurement by 4.3 percent of GDP, motivating analysis of how such fiscal contractions propagate through the banking system.', the key idea: 'Cuts to public procurement transmit to bank credit supply by saddling banks with nonperforming loans from government contractors, creating a persistent credit contraction; the study quantifies this link via a bank-level elasticity.', and the method: 'Empirical measurement of the effects of Portugal’s procurement cuts on banks and their lending, estimating a bank-level elasticity of credit supply with respect to procurement demand, complemented by a general equilibrium model to assess macroeconomic effects.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Procurement cuts led to nonperforming loans among contractors and a persistent reduction in credit supply to other firms; the estimated bank-level elasticity is 2.5, and the general equilibrium model indicates large effects of fiscal policy on credit supply and output in a crisis.


Based on the context: 'Tranching of asset-backed securities is commonly observed, and issuers face the problem of raising capital from investors who differ in risk aversion and budget constraints for assets with stochastic returns.', the key idea: 'Using mechanism design combined with risk-measure theory, the paper proposes an optimal security design that partitions the asset’s cash flow into investor-type-specific securities, explaining tranching as an endogenous outcome.', and the method: 'A theoretical mechanism design model incorporating risk measures analyzes a cash-constrained issuer allocating stochastic asset cash flows to investors with heterogeneous risk aversion and budgets, characterizing the optimal partition of securities.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

The optimal design partitions cash flows into senior debt, junior debt, and equity, with one security per investor type; tranching arises endogenously from differences in risk appetites and budget constraints.


Based on the context: 'A large literature has focused on targeting antipoverty programs to the most deprived (e.g., by consumption), but the trade-off with targeting those most impacted remains underexplored.', the key idea: 'The study examines the trade-off between targeting deprivation and impact, proposing proxy means tests that jointly target both objectives using machine learning and dynamic outcome data.', and the method: 'In the context of an NGO cash transfer program in Kenya, the authors employ recent machine learning methods and dynamic outcome data to learn proxy means tests that balance targeting impact and deprivation.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Targeting solely on the basis of deprivation is not attractive under standard social welfare criteria in this setting unless planner preferences are extremely redistributive.


Based on the context: 'Online labor platforms for short-term remote work have far more job seekers than available jobs, raising questions about who captures surplus from transactions.', the key idea: 'Despite worker abundance, workers capture a substantial share of transaction surplus due to demand-side search frictions and worker differentiation that limit direct competition, and traditional employment regulations would diminish market activity.', and the method: 'The study uses demand estimation to infer wage markups over costs, conducts a survey to validate surplus estimates, and analyzes the effects of applying traditional employment regulations on job posting and hiring rates.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Wages include significant markups over costs; workers retain a significant share of surplus; the survey corroborates surplus estimates; applying traditional employment regulations reduces job postings and hiring, lowering aggregate surplus for all participants.


Based on the context: 'Entry is a fundamental threat to cartels, and the largest price-fixing case in US history involving generic drug manufacturing provides a setting to examine this dynamic.', the key idea: 'The study assesses whether entry remedies collusion by quantifying the effects of entry and regulatory approval delays on cartel outcomes, using linked data on cartel operations, regulatory filings, and market conditions.', and the method: 'The analysis links internal cartel information to regulatory filings and market data, estimates a structural model, and conducts counterfactual simulations to evaluate entry and regulatory delays.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

There is substantial post-cartel entry, but regulatory approvals delay most entrants by 2–4 years; without entry, cartel profits would be dramatically higher; reducing regulatory delays by 1–2 years yields consumer compensating variation of $612 million to $1.5 billion.


Based on the context: 'A growing mental health crisis and shortage of behavioral health specialists lead to long wait times for care, raising concerns about outcomes for veterans experiencing mental health emergencies.', the key idea: 'The study examines how clinic congestion and treatment delays, specifically wait times between emergency department visits and follow-up appointments, affect long-term mortality among veterans.', and the method: 'An analysis of veterans’ mental health emergency cases links wait times between the emergency department visit and follow-up appointment to missed follow-ups, disengagement from care, and two-year mortality.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Longer waiting times increase the likelihood of missing follow-up visits and permanent disengagement from care; a 1 standard deviation increase in wait time (11.7 days) raises two-year mortality by about 1.5 percent.


Based on the context: 'Nudges such as simplified information and warning labels are used in markets with taxes and endogenous prices, but prior studies largely emphasize average effects without a clear welfare characterization under these conditions.', the key idea: 'A public finance sufficient statistic framework is introduced to assess the welfare effects of nudges, highlighting that welfare depends on changes in the variance of choice distortions and that average effects can be irrelevant with zero pass-through or optimal taxes.', and the method: 'The framework is implemented with experiments evaluating automotive fuel economy labels and sugary drink health labels to observe how these labels affect purchasing behavior.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Labels reduce purchases of low-fuel economy cars and sugary drinks, but may lower welfare because they increase the variance of choice distortions.


Based on the context: 'There was previously no evidence on how workers invest in human capital after losing ability, such as through work-related injuries.', the key idea: 'The study provides the first evidence that after physical injuries, workers enroll in bachelor's programs that build on their prior training and experience, and evaluates how institutional differences in the stackability of degrees shape reskilling outcomes.', and the method: 'Using Danish administrative data and quasi-random work accidents, the study exploits institutional variation in degree stackability to estimate the effects of higher education on employment, earnings, and benefit receipt, including assessing the fiscal returns to reskilling subsidies.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Injured workers enroll in bachelor's programs linked to prior training; higher education moves them from disability benefits to full-time employment; earnings rise by 25% relative to pre-injury; reskilling subsidies pay for themselves four times over; current reskilling rates are substantially below the social optimum, especially for middle-aged workers.


Based on the context: 'Consumers often continue to pay for subscriptions they no longer value, creating a potential benefit for firms that sell subscriptions.', the key idea: 'Leverage payment card replacement episodes and stylized models of consumer inertia (inattention and switching costs) to identify and quantify how cancellation frictions elevate subscription revenues, and assess regulatory remedies.', and the method: 'Analyze comprehensive data from a large payment card network to compare cancellation rates in months when cards are replaced (requiring active renewal), and estimate two stylized inertia models to quantify revenue effects and simulate regulatory impacts.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Card replacement months are associated with much higher cancellation rates, and estimated cancellation frictions roughly double seller revenues on average, holding fixed initial subscribers.


Based on the context: 'Household decision-making models often assume couples coordinate efficiently when allocating retirement contributions, such as maximizing employer match rates across spouses' accounts.', the key idea: 'The study investigates whether couples allocate retirement savings to the spouse’s account with the highest employer match and uses combined administrative and survey evidence to document and explain inefficiencies in this allocation.', and the method: 'Using a new administrative dataset covering over one million US individuals, the study analyzes contribution allocations relative to employer match rates and assesses commonality, cost, and persistence, while ruling out inertia, auto-enrollment, and simple heuristics; an online survey probes underlying reasons including trust and commitment within households.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Contributions are frequently not directed to the account with the highest employer match; this lack of coordination is common, costly, persistent, and not explained by inertia, auto-enrollment, or simple heuristics; survey evidence indicates inefficiencies arise from both financial mistakes and deliberate choices, especially when household trust and commitment are weak.


Based on the context: 'There is substantial spatial heterogeneity in household carbon emissions, raising questions about the relative roles of individual characteristics versus location in driving emissions.', the key idea: 'The study proposes estimating place effects—the change in carbon emissions for the same household living in different places—by leveraging movers to separate the influence of places from people.', and the method: 'Using two decades of administrative Decennial Census and American Community Survey data, the study exploits household moves to estimate place effects for nearly 1,000 U.S. cities and approximately 61,500 neighborhoods.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Place effects account for 14–23 percent of overall heterogeneity in household carbon emissions; moving from a neighborhood 1 standard deviation above the mean to one 1 below reduces residential energy and commuting emissions by about 40 percent.


Based on the context: 'Classical and stronger notions of risk aversion and comparative risk aversion exist in the literature, including Arrow-Pratt, Rothschild-Stiglitz, Yaari, and Ross.', the key idea: 'Risk aversion is fully captured by the propensity to seize insurance opportunities, providing a new foundation that links standard and stronger notions to full or partial insurance.', and the method: 'The study offers theoretical characterizations that relate established definitions of risk aversion and comparative risk aversion to propensities for full or partial insurance.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Arrow-Pratt risk aversion corresponds to propensity to full insurance; Rothschild-Stiglitz risk aversion corresponds to propensity to partial insurance; Yaari’s comparative risk aversion corresponds to comparative propensity to full insurance; Ross’s stronger comparative risk aversion corresponds to comparative propensity to partial insurance.


Based on the context: 'There is a need to understand global public attitudes toward climate change and policies, including factors driving support and the influence of different types of information.', the key idea: 'Support for climate policies hinges on three perceptions—policy effectiveness in reducing emissions, impacts on low-income households, and effects on one's own household—and mechanism-focused educational videos can increase support.', and the method: 'Large-scale cross-country surveys of 40,000 respondents in 20 countries, collecting attitudes and backgrounds, and testing information treatments via educational videos with different content.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Three key perceptions affecting policy support are identified; videos clarifying policy mechanisms increase support, whereas videos highlighting climate change’s impacts do not.


Based on the context: 'The transition toward an intangible-intensive economy coincides with rising corporate savings, growing leverage of financial intermediaries, declining interest rates, and elevated asset valuations, motivating an explanation of these secular trends.', the key idea: 'Intangible capital’s limited pledgeability leads firms to hoard liquidity, generating a self-perpetuating corporate savings glut that supplies cheap leverage to intermediaries, bids up asset prices, and increases financial fragility.', and the method: 'The study develops a macrofinance model that links firms’ investment in intangibles and liquidity hoarding with intermediaries’ leverage and asset price dynamics.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

The model coherently accounts for rising corporate savings, debt-fueled growth of intermediaries, declining interest rates, and rising asset valuation, and shows that endogenous financial risk accumulates along these trends.


Based on the context: 'Ethnically diverse countries are more prone to conflict, but it is unclear why some ethnic groups engage in civil conflict while others do not.', the key idea: 'Civil conflict in Africa is explained by ethnic groups’ cultural distance to the central government, proxied by linguistic distance, with greater cultural distance increasing the propensity to fight over government power.', and the method: 'The study identifies the effect by leveraging within-ethnicity variation in linguistic distance caused by power transitions between ethnic groups over time, and examines preferences over the allocation and type of public goods to assess mechanisms.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

An increase in linguistic (cultural) distance to the central government raises an ethnicity’s likelihood of engaging in civil conflict over government power, with evidence attributing the effect to differences in public goods preferences.


Based on the context: 'Trade liberalization following China’s entry into the WTO increased import competition, affecting sectors and banks with loan portfolios concentrated in exposed industries.', the key idea: 'The paper identifies an endogenous credit-supply contraction as a financial channel of trade shocks: banks exposed to China-import competition experience higher nonperforming loans and cut credit to firms regardless of sector, amplifying and spreading the shock.', and the method: 'An empirical analysis exploits variation from China’s WTO entry and banks’ sectoral loan portfolio concentrations to assess changes in nonperforming loans, credit supply to firms, and subsequent firm outcomes.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Banks concentrated in China-exposed sectors saw increases in nonperforming loans and reduced credit supply to all firms; this led to lower employment, investment, and output, amplifying the impact on already hit firms and transmitting it to sectors expected to expand.


Based on the context: 'Data-driven innovation in socially impactful digital products faces challenges in measuring and improving social impact, particularly when designing and analyzing complex experiments.', the key idea: 'The paper offers an economic perspective on the innovation process, positioning economists as designers who leverage complex experiments and economic tools to identify problems, build theory, define measurable goals, analyze data, and estimate counterfactuals.', and the method: 'A conceptual synthesis and survey that outlines how economic tools apply at each stage of the innovation process and reviews recently developed tools for designing and analyzing data from complex experiments.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

The paper highlights specific contributions of economics—problem identification, theoretical framework development, translating goals into measurable outcomes, historical data analysis, and counterfactual estimation—and surveys tools to address experimental design and analysis challenges.


Based on the context: 'The study addresses how quickly fiat money becomes valueless during speculative hyperinflations in continuous-time decentralized markets where money is essential.', the key idea: 'It provides necessary and sufficient conditions for money to die in finite time, including the necessary condition that the liquidity return of money grows without bound as its value approaches zero, and characterizes determinants of money longevity under CRRA preferences.', and the method: 'A theoretical analysis of speculative hyperinflation equilibria in continuous-time decentralized economies, deriving conditions and comparative statics under CRRA preferences, including the roles of seller market power, legal restrictions, and competing currencies' returns.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Money’s longevity shrinks with higher money growth rates and more frequent liquidity needs, increases with seller market power, and depends on the strictness of legal restrictions and the rates of return of competing currencies; a necessary condition for finite-time death of money is unbounded liquidity return as its value goes to zero.


Based on the context: 'Conventional wisdom holds that competition among investors is so fierce that if one group changes behavior, others adjust so prices remain unaffected.', the key idea: 'The study estimates a demand system that allows for flexible strategic responses among institutional investors to assess how competitive the stock market is and how passive investing affects demand elasticity.', and the method: 'Estimation of a demand system for institutional investors in the US stock market that incorporates strategic reactions to others' aggressiveness.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Investors trade more aggressively when surrounded by less aggressive traders, but this strategic reaction offsets only two-thirds of the initial impact; the rise of passive investing over the last 20 years has made demand for individual stocks 11 percent more inelastic.


Based on the context: 'China is internationalizing its domestic bond market and has experienced episodes of capital outflows, motivating analysis of its strategy for admitting foreign investors.', the key idea: 'A dynamic reputation model is proposed to explain China’s staggered entry of different types of foreign investors as a way to build credibility as a safe issuer while mitigating the cost of capital flight.', and the method: 'The study empirically characterizes the sequencing of foreign investor entry into China’s bond market and develops a dynamic reputation framework, which is applied to interpret responses to capital outflow episodes.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

The framework rationalizes China’s internationalization strategy as credibility-building and cost-reducing with respect to capital flight, and it sheds light on China’s responses to periods of capital outflows.


Based on the context: 'Land market frictions are suspected to cause misallocation in agriculture, but causal evidence on their impact has been limited.', the key idea: 'The study tests whether reducing land rental frictions via randomized subsidies to owners induces rentals that improve allocation and reveals the nature of frictions such as search, risk, and learning.', and the method: 'A field experiment in western Kenya randomly subsidized landowners to rent out land and measured rental persistence, output, value added, input use, and crop choices, comparing outcomes between owners and renters.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Induced rentals mostly persist after the subsidy ends and increase output and value added; gains arise because renters select higher-value crops, have higher productivity, and adopt more nonlabor inputs while using similar labor, and induced rentals are not those with the largest predicted gains, indicating frictions from search, risk, and learning.


Based on the context: 'A recent U.S. incentive auction repurposed spectrum from broadcast TV to mobile broadband, and TV station ownership is significantly concentrated among multilicense owners within the reverse auction format.', the key idea: 'Ownership concentration creates incentives for multilicense owners to strategically withhold some stations to raise prices for their remaining stations in the reverse auction.', and the method: 'The study documents multilicense ownership and uses a large-scale valuation and simulation exercise to assess incentives and payout effects in the reverse auction.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Strategic supply reduction by multilicense owners increases payouts to TV stations by between 13.5% and 42.4%.


Based on the context: 'Concerns about government bailouts of globally systemically important banks (GSIBs), highlighted by the Global Financial Crisis, raised the issue of 'too big to fail.'', the key idea: 'The study estimates a decline in 'too big to fail' by assessing market-implied bailout probabilities and debt financing costs for US-headquartered GSIBs.', and the method: 'It analyzes market-implied probabilities of government bailout and wholesale debt financing costs for GSIBs with US headquarters, controlling for insolvency risk, in the post-GFC period.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Market-implied bailout probabilities declined significantly after the GFC; wholesale debt financing costs are roughly 170 percent higher after controlling for insolvency risk; creditors expect much larger losses if a GSIB approaches insolvency, indicating a decline in 'too big to fail.'


Based on the context: 'The study addresses how central bank policies affect mortgage pricing in the United Kingdom and seeks to understand lenders' pricing strategies under such policies.', the key idea: 'Lenders use two-part tariffs (interest rates plus origination fees) to price discriminate across borrowers, and unconventional monetary policies shift the balance by reducing rates while increasing fees; banning origination fees would alter lending by removing a key discrimination tool.', and the method: 'A model of mortgage demand and lender competition is used to analyze pricing responses and the effects of central bank policies, including the Funding for Lending Scheme.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Lenders price discriminate using interest rates and fees; during the Funding for Lending Scheme they reduced rates and increased fees; central bank policies increased mortgage lending; banning origination fees would reduce lending because fees allow surplus capture and discrimination across borrowers with differing sensitivities.


Based on the context: 'Multinationals in extractive sectors of weak states face resource theft by armed groups, often abetted by state corruption. Nigeria’s indigenization policy substantially increased local firms’ participation in the oil sector.', the key idea: 'Political connections can align law enforcement incentives, reducing oil theft and turning corruption into a local advantage for domestic firms. A bargaining model explains how such connections solve commitment problems in protection.', and the method: 'The study uses a bargaining model and analyzes data on law enforcement raids to identify preferential protection for local firms and its effects after indigenization.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Local firms, despite lower quality, increased output by reducing oil theft; law enforcement data show they receive preferential protection, with connections to military elites driving this advantage. The aggregate gains from indigenization are at most between 2.3 and 5.7 percent of GDP.


Based on the context: 'Application hassles ('ordeals') are used to limit public program enrollment, and insurance markets commonly feature adverse selection.', the key idea: 'Examining a minor ordeal created by removing health insurance auto-enrollment, the study argues that in selection markets adverse selection undermines the standard rationale for ordeals that aim to exclude low-value individuals.', and the method: 'An empirical analysis of the removal of an auto-enrollment policy that added an extra enrollment step, combined with a simple model to assess how adverse selection interacts with ordeals.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

The minor ordeal reduced enrollment by 33% and disproportionately excluded young, healthy, and economically disadvantaged individuals; the model shows that adverse selection weakens ordeals’ ability to target inefficiency because low-value individuals are also low-cost.


Based on the context: 'A prominent energy regulation targeting large Chinese manufacturers within conglomerates raises questions about firm responses and spillovers across affiliated firms and markets.', the key idea: 'The study examines how regulation within conglomerates affects production and energy efficiency, introducing an industry equilibrium model with conglomerate production to capture spillovers and assess welfare and alternative policy designs using business network information.', and the method: 'Using detailed firm-level data and difference-in-differences designs, the analysis measures regulated firms’ responses and interprets them through an industry equilibrium model that incorporates conglomerate and market spillovers.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Regulated firms reduced output and shifted production to unregulated affiliates rather than improving energy efficiency; the policy increases welfare if per-ton carbon benefits exceed $161; alternative policies leveraging public business network information can raise aggregate energy savings by 10 percent.


Based on the context: 'Electricity generators frequently stop and start production in response to rooftop solar output, and firms face fixed start-up costs they expect to recover through subsequent operating profits. Market power is often assessed via static markups.', the key idea: 'Develop a dynamic competitive benchmark that accounts for start-up costs, revealing that static markups overstate rents attributable to market power in such settings.', and the method: 'Construct and analyze a dynamic competitive benchmark for an electricity market with start-up costs, comparing its implications to those from static markup measures and examining effects of solar expansion on competition.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Static markups overstate market power rents when start-up costs are salient; large-scale solar capacity expansion can increase the collective profitability of fossil fuel plants because competition softens at sunset as displaced plants must incur start-up costs to re-enter.


Based on the context: 'There is uncertainty about whether consumers have latent demand to support Black-owned businesses, and an online platform introduced a feature that made it easier to identify Black-owned restaurants.', the key idea: 'Revealing minority ownership status by labeling restaurants as Black-owned on a platform is proposed as a way to uncover latent demand and assess impacts on engagement and performance.', and the method: 'The study analyzes the introduction of a labeling feature on an online platform, measuring changes in online traffic, calls, orders, in-person visits, and the composition of reviewers to assess the effect of revealing race.', predict the outcome of this research. Output only the outcome without explanation.

Labeling restaurants as minority-owned increased customer engagement and firm performance across multiple metrics, with stronger effects in areas with greater Democratic Party support and lower implicit bias, and increased the fraction of reviews written by White customers.