Given the context: 'Data-driven innovation in socially impactful digital products faces challenges in measuring and improving social impact, particularly when designing and analyzing complex experiments.', the key idea: 'The paper offers an economic perspective on the innovation process, positioning economists as designers who leverage complex experiments and economic tools to identify problems, build theory, define measurable goals, analyze data, and estimate counterfactuals.', the method: 'A conceptual synthesis and survey that outlines how economic tools apply at each stage of the innovation process and reviews recently developed tools for designing and analyzing data from complex experiments.', the outcome: 'The paper highlights specific contributions of economics—problem identification, theoretical framework development, translating goals into measurable outcomes, historical data analysis, and counterfactual estimation—and surveys tools to address experimental design and analysis challenges.', and the projected impact: 'The framework and surveyed tools are intended to improve the design and evaluation of data-driven digital products with social impact and guide future research on complex experimental methodologies.', predict the title of this research paper. Output only the title without explanation.

Presidential Address: The Economist as Designer in the Innovation Process for Socially Impactful Digital Products


System:
You are an expert in research tasked with generating detailed prompts for various aspects of academic research papers. Each task involves creating a specific type of prompt based on the provided information. Here are the definitions of each part you will work with:

- Context: The status quo of related literature or reality which motivated this study. This could normally be a problem, a research question, or a research gap that has not been successfully addressed by previous work. This is anything that happened before this study.
- Key Idea: The main intellectual merit of this paper, often in comparison to the context. This could normally be a novel idea or solution proposed in this paper that distinguishes it from what's already done in literature. This is proposed in this study.
- Method: The specific research method that investigates and validates the key idea. This could be an experimental setup, a theoretical framework, or other necessary methodology to implement and/or evaluate the key idea. This is performed in this study.
- Outcome: The factual statement about the study output. This could be the experiment results and any other measurable outcome that has occurred. It marks whether the key hypothesis is testified or not. This is produced in this study.
- Projected Impact: The author-anticipated impact of the work on the field, and potential further research identified by the author that may improve or extend this study. This is anything being anticipated but has not happened yet.

Given the context: 'The study addresses how quickly fiat money becomes valueless during speculative hyperinflations in continuous-time decentralized markets where money is essential.', the key idea: 'It provides necessary and sufficient conditions for money to die in finite time, including the necessary condition that the liquidity return of money grows without bound as its value approaches zero, and characterizes determinants of money longevity under CRRA preferences.', the method: 'A theoretical analysis of speculative hyperinflation equilibria in continuous-time decentralized economies, deriving conditions and comparative statics under CRRA preferences, including the roles of seller market power, legal restrictions, and competing currencies' returns.', the outcome: 'Money’s longevity shrinks with higher money growth rates and more frequent liquidity needs, increases with seller market power, and depends on the strictness of legal restrictions and the rates of return of competing currencies; a necessary condition for finite-time death of money is unbounded liquidity return as its value goes to zero.', and the projected impact: 'N/A', predict the title of this research paper. Output only the title without explanation.

When Money Dies: The Dynamics of Speculative Hyperinflations


Given the context: 'Conventional wisdom holds that competition among investors is so fierce that if one group changes behavior, others adjust so prices remain unaffected.', the key idea: 'The study estimates a demand system that allows for flexible strategic responses among institutional investors to assess how competitive the stock market is and how passive investing affects demand elasticity.', the method: 'Estimation of a demand system for institutional investors in the US stock market that incorporates strategic reactions to others' aggressiveness.', the outcome: 'Investors trade more aggressively when surrounded by less aggressive traders, but this strategic reaction offsets only two-thirds of the initial impact; the rise of passive investing over the last 20 years has made demand for individual stocks 11 percent more inelastic.', and the projected impact: 'N/A', predict the title of this research paper. Output only the title without explanation.

How Competitive Is the Stock Market? Theory, Evidence from Portfolios, and Implications for the Rise of Passive Investing


Given the context: 'China is internationalizing its domestic bond market and has experienced episodes of capital outflows, motivating analysis of its strategy for admitting foreign investors.', the key idea: 'A dynamic reputation model is proposed to explain China’s staggered entry of different types of foreign investors as a way to build credibility as a safe issuer while mitigating the cost of capital flight.', the method: 'The study empirically characterizes the sequencing of foreign investor entry into China’s bond market and develops a dynamic reputation framework, which is applied to interpret responses to capital outflow episodes.', the outcome: 'The framework rationalizes China’s internationalization strategy as credibility-building and cost-reducing with respect to capital flight, and it sheds light on China’s responses to periods of capital outflows.', and the projected impact: 'N/A', predict the title of this research paper. Output only the title without explanation.


Given the context: 'Land market frictions are suspected to cause misallocation in agriculture, but causal evidence on their impact has been limited.', the key idea: 'The study tests whether reducing land rental frictions via randomized subsidies to owners induces rentals that improve allocation and reveals the nature of frictions such as search, risk, and learning.', the method: 'A field experiment in western Kenya randomly subsidized landowners to rent out land and measured rental persistence, output, value added, input use, and crop choices, comparing outcomes between owners and renters.', the outcome: 'Induced rentals mostly persist after the subsidy ends and increase output and value added; gains arise because renters select higher-value crops, have higher productivity, and adopt more nonlabor inputs while using similar labor, and induced rentals are not those with the largest predicted gains, indicating frictions from search, risk, and learning.', and the projected impact: 'N/A', predict the title of this research paper. Output only the title without explanation.

Land Rental Markets: Experimental Evidence from Kenya


Given the context: 'A recent U.S. incentive auction repurposed spectrum from broadcast TV to mobile broadband, and TV station ownership is significantly concentrated among multilicense owners within the reverse auction format.', the key idea: 'Ownership concentration creates incentives for multilicense owners to strategically withhold some stations to raise prices for their remaining stations in the reverse auction.', the method: 'The study documents multilicense ownership and uses a large-scale valuation and simulation exercise to assess incentives and payout effects in the reverse auction.', the outcome: 'Strategic supply reduction by multilicense owners increases payouts to TV stations by between 13.5% and 42.4%.', and the projected impact: 'N/A', predict the title of this research paper. Output only the title without explanation.

Ownership Concentration and Strategic Supply Reduction


Given the context: 'Concerns about government bailouts of globally systemically important banks (GSIBs), highlighted by the Global Financial Crisis, raised the issue of 'too big to fail.'', the key idea: 'The study estimates a decline in 'too big to fail' by assessing market-implied bailout probabilities and debt financing costs for US-headquartered GSIBs.', the method: 'It analyzes market-implied probabilities of government bailout and wholesale debt financing costs for GSIBs with US headquarters, controlling for insolvency risk, in the post-GFC period.', the outcome: 'Market-implied bailout probabilities declined significantly after the GFC; wholesale debt financing costs are roughly 170 percent higher after controlling for insolvency risk; creditors expect much larger losses if a GSIB approaches insolvency, indicating a decline in 'too big to fail.'', and the projected impact: 'N/A', predict the title of this research paper. Output only the title without explanation.


Given the context: 'The study addresses how central bank policies affect mortgage pricing in the United Kingdom and seeks to understand lenders' pricing strategies under such policies.', the key idea: 'Lenders use two-part tariffs (interest rates plus origination fees) to price discriminate across borrowers, and unconventional monetary policies shift the balance by reducing rates while increasing fees; banning origination fees would alter lending by removing a key discrimination tool.', the method: 'A model of mortgage demand and lender competition is used to analyze pricing responses and the effects of central bank policies, including the Funding for Lending Scheme.', the outcome: 'Lenders price discriminate using interest rates and fees; during the Funding for Lending Scheme they reduced rates and increased fees; central bank policies increased mortgage lending; banning origination fees would reduce lending because fees allow surplus capture and discrimination across borrowers with differing sensitivities.', and the projected impact: 'N/A', predict the title of this research paper. Output only the title without explanation.


Given the context: 'Multinationals in extractive sectors of weak states face resource theft by armed groups, often abetted by state corruption. Nigeria’s indigenization policy substantially increased local firms’ participation in the oil sector.', the key idea: 'Political connections can align law enforcement incentives, reducing oil theft and turning corruption into a local advantage for domestic firms. A bargaining model explains how such connections solve commitment problems in protection.', the method: 'The study uses a bargaining model and analyzes data on law enforcement raids to identify preferential protection for local firms and its effects after indigenization.', the outcome: 'Local firms, despite lower quality, increased output by reducing oil theft; law enforcement data show they receive preferential protection, with connections to military elites driving this advantage. The aggregate gains from indigenization are at most between 2.3 and 5.7 percent of GDP.', and the projected impact: 'N/A', predict the title of this research paper. Output only the title without explanation.

Corruption as a Local Advantage: Evidence from the Indigenization of Nigerian Oil


Given the context: 'Application hassles ('ordeals') are used to limit public program enrollment, and insurance markets commonly feature adverse selection.', the key idea: 'Examining a minor ordeal created by removing health insurance auto-enrollment, the study argues that in selection markets adverse selection undermines the standard rationale for ordeals that aim to exclude low-value individuals.', the method: 'An empirical analysis of the removal of an auto-enrollment policy that added an extra enrollment step, combined with a simple model to assess how adverse selection interacts with ordeals.', the outcome: 'The minor ordeal reduced enrollment by 33% and disproportionately excluded young, healthy, and economically disadvantaged individuals; the model shows that adverse selection weakens ordeals’ ability to target inefficiency because low-value individuals are also low-cost.', and the projected impact: 'The analysis illustrates that ordeals targeting is unlikely to work well in selection markets.', predict the title of this research paper. Output only the title without explanation.

Do Ordeals Work for Selection Markets? Evidence from Health Insurance Auto-Enrollment


Given the context: 'A prominent energy regulation targeting large Chinese manufacturers within conglomerates raises questions about firm responses and spillovers across affiliated firms and markets.', the key idea: 'The study examines how regulation within conglomerates affects production and energy efficiency, introducing an industry equilibrium model with conglomerate production to capture spillovers and assess welfare and alternative policy designs using business network information.', the method: 'Using detailed firm-level data and difference-in-differences designs, the analysis measures regulated firms’ responses and interprets them through an industry equilibrium model that incorporates conglomerate and market spillovers.', the outcome: 'Regulated firms reduced output and shifted production to unregulated affiliates rather than improving energy efficiency; the policy increases welfare if per-ton carbon benefits exceed $161; alternative policies leveraging public business network information can raise aggregate energy savings by 10 percent.', and the projected impact: 'N/A', predict the title of this research paper. Output only the title without explanation.

Regulating Conglomerates: Evidence from an Energy Conservation Program in China


Given the context: 'Electricity generators frequently stop and start production in response to rooftop solar output, and firms face fixed start-up costs they expect to recover through subsequent operating profits. Market power is often assessed via static markups.', the key idea: 'Develop a dynamic competitive benchmark that accounts for start-up costs, revealing that static markups overstate rents attributable to market power in such settings.', the method: 'Construct and analyze a dynamic competitive benchmark for an electricity market with start-up costs, comparing its implications to those from static markup measures and examining effects of solar expansion on competition.', the outcome: 'Static markups overstate market power rents when start-up costs are salient; large-scale solar capacity expansion can increase the collective profitability of fossil fuel plants because competition softens at sunset as displaced plants must incur start-up costs to re-enter.', and the projected impact: 'N/A', predict the title of this research paper. Output only the title without explanation.

Start-Up Costs and Market Power: Lessons from the Renewable Energy Transition


Given the context: 'There is uncertainty about whether consumers have latent demand to support Black-owned businesses, and an online platform introduced a feature that made it easier to identify Black-owned restaurants.', the key idea: 'Revealing minority ownership status by labeling restaurants as Black-owned on a platform is proposed as a way to uncover latent demand and assess impacts on engagement and performance.', the method: 'The study analyzes the introduction of a labeling feature on an online platform, measuring changes in online traffic, calls, orders, in-person visits, and the composition of reviewers to assess the effect of revealing race.', the outcome: 'Labeling restaurants as minority-owned increased customer engagement and firm performance across multiple metrics, with stronger effects in areas with greater Democratic Party support and lower implicit bias, and increased the fraction of reviews written by White customers.', and the projected impact: 'N/A', predict the title of this research paper. Output only the title without explanation.

The Benefits of Revealing Race: Evidence from Minority-Owned Local Businesses


Given the context: 'The study addresses how to regulate a monopolistic firm, focusing on policy design under uncertainty rather than relying on Bayesian assumptions.', the key idea: 'A robust, non-Bayesian framework is proposed that minimizes the regulator’s worst-case regret, yielding policy prescriptions tailored to different regulatory objectives.', the method: 'A theoretical robust-design approach that defines regret as the gap between complete-information and realized payoffs and derives policies that minimize worst-case regret for different objective functions.', the outcome: 'If the regulator maximizes consumers’ surplus, the optimal policy is an average revenue cap; if maximizing total surplus, it is a piece-rate subsidy with a cap on the total subsidy; for intermediate objectives, the regulator combines these instruments to balance protecting consumers, mitigating underproduction, and limiting overproduction.', and the projected impact: 'N/A', predict the title of this research paper. Output only the title without explanation.


Given the context: 'Applicants commonly hedge by applying to reaches, matches, and safeties, and admissions outcomes across schools can be correlated, motivating a need to rationalize this practice.', the key idea: 'A simultaneous-search framework with correlated admissions outcomes across schools shows that rejections are informative and rationalizes targeting both safeties and reaches, complemented by an algorithm for computing the optimal application portfolio.', the method: 'The study develops a theoretical model of simultaneous search with correlation in admissions, analyzes optimal portfolios under varying beliefs, risk attitudes, and application costs, and provides a polynomial-time algorithm to obtain the optimal portfolio.', the outcome: 'The model implies that applicants optimally apply to both safeties and reaches, characterizes how the optimal portfolio varies with beliefs, risk attitudes, and costs, and delivers an algorithm that computes the optimal portfolio in polynomial time.', and the projected impact: 'N/A', predict the title of this research paper. Output only the title without explanation.

Hedging When Applying: Simultaneous Search with Correlation


Given the context: 'The study examines wage stickiness on the layoff margin and the efficiency of worker-employer separations in the labor market.', the key idea: 'An innovative survey of unemployment insurance recipients is used to quantify willingness to accept pay cuts to avoid layoffs and to document the rarity of pay/benefit/hour negotiations, providing evidence on wage stickiness and inefficient separations.', the method: 'The authors field a survey of UI recipients to elicit acceptance of pay cuts of varying sizes, collect reports of worker-employer discussions about adjustments in lieu of layoffs, and assess whether layoffs meet theoretical conditions for bilaterally efficient separations.', the outcome: 'A majority would accept 5–10% pay cuts and one-third would accept a 25% cut to save their jobs; discussions about cuts in pay, benefits, or hours are exceedingly rare; roughly one-quarter of layoffs violate the theoretical condition for bilaterally efficient separations.', and the projected impact: 'N/A', predict the title of this research paper. Output only the title without explanation.


Given the context: 'The study examines how voters’ short-term memory affects political outcomes within a framework that views politics as a collective learning process.', the key idea: 'Short-term memory in voters can endogenously generate cycles of polarization and consensus across party platforms by altering the informational environment and parties’ incentives.', the method: 'A theoretical analysis models politics as collective learning with voters who have short-term memory, deriving implications for party platform dynamics under varying informational conditions.', the outcome: 'Periods of consensus yield little variation in voter data and limited information, enabling parties to polarize; periods of polarization and turnover create sufficient variation for voters to identify the correct policy, forcing both parties to converge, producing cyclical shifts between polarization and consensus.', and the projected impact: 'N/A', predict the title of this research paper. Output only the title without explanation.

Political Social Learning: Short-Term Memory and Cycles of Polarization


Given the context: 'In households where women regularly receive transfers from their husbands for household purchases, reputation dynamics within the household can influence financial decisions.', the key idea: 'A signaling model is proposed in which wives seek to maintain a good reputation to secure high transfers, leading them to avoid risky purchases and to knowingly overuse low-return goods to conceal bad purchase decisions, termed the intrahousehold sunk cost effect.', the method: 'The study develops a signaling model and provides supportive evidence through a series of experiments with married couples in rural Malawi.', the outcome: 'Experimental findings support the model's predictions, showing behavior consistent with avoiding risky purchases and overusing low-return goods to hide poor decisions.', and the projected impact: 'N/A', predict the title of this research paper. Output only the title without explanation.

The Good Wife? Reputation Dynamics and Financial Decision-Making inside the Household


Given the context: 'The study addresses the challenge of achieving robust behavioral change among disadvantaged adolescents in school settings.', the key idea: 'A behavioral targeting program grants status and leverages self-persuasion by enlisting socially connected senior middle school students with high emotional intelligence as student-teachers to deliver a curriculum to their junior peers.', the method: 'The intervention recruits these student-teachers to deliver a curriculum and evaluates effects on disciplinary incidents, antisocial behavior, the social environment, and admissions to selective high schools for student-teachers and their friendship networks.', the outcome: 'The program empowered student-teachers and improved their social environment; it reduced disciplinary incidents and antisocial behavior among student-teachers and their friendship networks; it significantly increased student-teachers' likelihood of admission to selective high schools.', and the projected impact: 'The approach offers a cost-effective way to help disadvantaged adolescents escape neighborhood disadvantages.', predict the title of this research paper. Output only the title without explanation.

Empowering Adolescents to Transform Schools: Lessons from a Behavioral Targeting


Given the context: 'Debate over whether central banks should keep inflation targets fixed and the presence of persistent private information at the central bank motivate a study of target design under asymmetric information.', the key idea: 'A dynamic inflation target mechanism is proposed that delegates to the central bank the authority to adjust the target’s level and flexibility one period in advance, implementing the full-information commitment allocation.', the method: 'A theoretical dynamic mechanism design framework between a government and a central bank with persistent private information about structural shocks, where firms form inflation expectations based on the central bank’s reports.', the outcome: 'A dynamic inflation target can implement the full-information commitment allocation, and a declining natural interest rate versus a flattening Phillips curve imply opposite optimal adjustments to the target.', and the projected impact: 'The results provide guidance for practical policy decisions on how to design and adjust inflation targets.', predict the title of this research paper. Output only the title without explanation.