---
license: apache-2.0
tags:
  - magic-the-gathering
  - draft
  - model-evaluation
  - reproducibility
  - predictions
---

# DraftFM frozen_eval: the per-pick prediction archive

Every prediction behind the tables in the DraftFM paper, archived so the
results can be recomputed (no GPU needed) and audited pick by pick.

- **Model:** [brianward92/draftfm](https://huggingface.co/brianward92/draftfm)
- **Code and paper:** https://github.com/brianward92/mtga

Each top-level directory is named by the sha256 of the frozen data snapshot
it was evaluated against — the directory name itself is the registration.
Inside are per-pick prediction parquets for every model in the battery
(scaling rungs `s1`–`s16`, `f-dev`, `f-full`, ablations, and baselines),
in both `human` and `deployment` scoring modes, plus derived accuracy
curves and a `summary.json` recording the evaluation context and gates.

## Directories

| Directory | What it is |
|---|---|
| `013df16b…183a` | **The headline MSH pass**: single pre-registered zero-shot evaluation over the first public MSH snapshot (PremierDraft, protocol v1.1, executed 2026-07-07). Source of the 57.0% top-1 result |
| `013df16b…183a_postday1` | Post-day-one MSH ceiling: per-set model fine-tuned on MSH after the zero-shot pass, as pre-registered in the protocol (2026-07-09) |
| `df6220d8…853` | Full-battery end-to-end rehearsal on SOS PremierDraft (protocol v1, 2026-07-05), run before the real MSH pass to burn in the pipeline |
| `6552b298…34e` | Earlier SOS TradDraft rehearsal with baselines (protocol v1, 2026-07-04) |
| `validation/` | Per-set validation parquets (e.g. SOS) used for sanity gates |

The rehearsals are included deliberately: the protocol's credibility comes
from showing the pipeline was exercised and frozen *before* the one-shot
MSH evaluation, not tuned after it.

## Using it

Each `<model>.<mode>.parquet` holds one row per pick with the model's
probability over the pack and the chosen card; `summary.json` in each
directory records the snapshot sha256, S3 ETag, protocol tag, execution
timestamp, and data-quality gates. To recompute a table, aggregate the
parquets; to audit a claim, join any pick back to its prediction. The
battery definition lives in the model repo's `frozen_battery.json`; the
chronology is in the code repo's `docs/eval_protocol.md`.

## Provenance and licensing

These files are model outputs and derived aggregates generated by the
DraftFM pipeline (Apache-2.0). The underlying human draft data is the
17Lands public dataset (CC BY 4.0 — "Data from 17Lands.com"); raw
17Lands rows are not redistributed here. Unofficial Fan Content per the
Wizards of the Coast Fan Content Policy; not approved or endorsed by
Wizards.

## Contact

Brian Ward — brian.ward.92@gmail.com