diff --git "a/raw_rss_feeds/https___arxiv_org_rss_econ.xml" "b/raw_rss_feeds/https___arxiv_org_rss_econ.xml" --- "a/raw_rss_feeds/https___arxiv_org_rss_econ.xml" +++ "b/raw_rss_feeds/https___arxiv_org_rss_econ.xml" @@ -7,417 +7,549 @@ http://www.rssboard.org/rss-specification en-us - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 05:00:07 +0000 + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 05:00:29 +0000 rss-help@arxiv.org - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 Saturday Sunday - The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth in South Asian Countries - https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.16958 - arXiv:2512.16958v1 Announce Type: new -Abstract: This study investigates the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on economic growth in South Asian countries, utilizing annual panel data from five SAARC member states (Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka) over the period 1980-2017. Data sourced from the World Development Indicators and Penn World Table were analyzed using static panel models, including Ordinary Least Squares, Fixed Effects, Random Effects, and Generalized Least Squares regressions. The empirical findings reveal that FDI exhibits a consistently positive but statistically insignificant correlation with economic growth across all model specifications. In contrast, domestic investment and human capital development emerge as significant and robust positive determinants of growth. Control variables such as government consumption and inflation show expected negative, though generally insignificant, associations with growth. The results imply that for the sampled South Asian economies, enhancing domestic investment and fostering human capital are more critical for driving economic expansion than relying on FDI inflows. Consequently, policymakers should prioritize strategies that strengthen local investment climates and improve educational and skill-building institutions to boost productivity. While FDI's role remains complementary, its insignificant immediate impact suggests the need for further research into the conditional factors such as institutional quality, financial market development, and trade policies that might mediate its effectiveness in fostering long-term growth within the region. - oai:arXiv.org:2512.16958v1 - econ.GN - q-fin.EC - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + Inference in partially identified moment models via regularized optimal transport + https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.18084 + arXiv:2512.18084v1 Announce Type: new +Abstract: Partial identification often arises when the joint distribution of the data is known only up to its marginals. We consider the corresponding partially identified GMM model and develop a methodology for identification, estimation, and inference in this model. We characterize the sharp identified set for the parameter of interest via a support-function/optimal-transport (OT) representation. For estimation, we employ entropic regularization, which provides a smooth approximation to classical OT and can be computed efficiently by the Sinkhorn algorithm. We also propose a statistic for testing hypotheses and constructing confidence regions for the identified set. To derive the asymptotic distribution of this statistic, we establish a novel central limit theorem for the entropic OT value under general smooth costs. We then obtain valid critical values using the bootstrap for directionally differentiable functionals of Fang and Santos (2019). The resulting testing procedure controls size locally uniformly, including at parameter values on the boundary of the identified set. We illustrate its performance in a Monte Carlo simulation. Our methodology is applicable to a wide range of empirical settings, such as panels with attrition and refreshment samples, nonlinear treatment effects, nonparametric instrumental variables without large-support conditions, and Euler equations with repeated cross-sections. + oai:arXiv.org:2512.18084v1 + econ.EM + math.ST + stat.TH + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 new http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ - S M Toufiqul Huq Sowrov + Grigory Franguridi, Laura Liu - Principled Identification of Structural Dynamic Models - https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.17005 - arXiv:2512.17005v1 Announce Type: new -Abstract: We take a new perspective on identification in structural dynamic models: rather than imposing restrictions, we optimize an objective. This provides new theoretical insights into traditional Cholesky identification. A correlation-maximizing objective yields an Order- and Scale-Invariant Identification Scheme (OASIS) that selects the orthogonal rotation that best aligns structural shocks with their reduced-form innovations. We revisit a large number of SVAR studies and find, across 22 published SVARs, that the correlations between structural and reduced-form shocks are generally high. - oai:arXiv.org:2512.17005v1 - econ.EM - stat.ME - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + Mammography Screening and Emergency Hospitalizations During COVID-19: Evidence from SHARE + https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.18342 + arXiv:2512.18342v1 Announce Type: new +Abstract: We study how pandemic-related disruptions to preventive care affected severe health events among older Europeans. Using panel data from eight countries in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we exploit quasi-random variation in interview timing and COVID-19 restrictions to compare women who missed a routine mammogram with otherwise similar women who were screened. Our outcome (all-cause emergency overnight hospitalizations) captures severe acute episodes rather than cancer-specific events. Simple associations show no difference in these hospitalizations over the following year. In contrast, our instrumental-variables estimates suggest that screening reduces the probability of an emergency hospitalization by about 6 percentage points among women in the screening-eligible age range. We find no effect among women above the target age range, supporting our identification strategy. Overall, the results indicate that maintaining access to preventive services during crises can reduce avoidable acute events in ageing populations and strengthen health-system resilience to large shocks. + oai:arXiv.org:2512.18342v1 + econ.GN + q-fin.EC + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 new - http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ - Neville Francis, Peter Reinhard Hansen, Chen Tong + http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ + Moslem Rashidi, Luke B. Connelly, Gianluca Fiorentini - Immigrant Residential Segregation in Europe: A Comparative Study of Spatial Segregation Patterns in Urban Areas across 30 Countries - https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.17037 - arXiv:2512.17037v1 Announce Type: new -Abstract: Immigrant residential segregation can profoundly shape access to opportunities, immigrant integration, and inter-group relations. Yet we lack systematic evidence on how segregation varies across Europe, and what structural factors are associated with these patterns. This study addresses the gap by focusing on two questions: (i) how does immigrant-native segregation vary across urban areas in Europe, and (ii) which urban area- and country-level characteristics are consistently linked to segregation? Using harmonised 1x1 km grid-level data from the 2021/22 census, we calculate spatially weighted Dissimilarity Indices for all 717 Functional Urban Areas (FUAs) across 30 European countries. We combine these measures with rich data on demographics, the economy, housing, immigrant populations, and policy. To identify robust correlates of segregation, we apply a Specification Curve Analysis across 16,164 regression models. Segregation is higher in Western and Northern Europe compared to most of Eastern and Southern Europe. Moreover, we show that segregation is heavily driven by macro-spatial dynamics between diverse urban cores and relatively homogeneous suburban areas. At the urban area level, segregation is systematically linked to the demographic composition and spatial distribution of the local population, economic conditions, housing market characteristics, as well as the composition of the immigrant population. At the national level, established immigrant destinations are more segregated, while migration and integration policies are not consistently linked to segregation. These findings offer the most comprehensive comparative assessment of immigrant segregation across Europe to date, revealing how structural conditions relate to spatial integration. - oai:arXiv.org:2512.17037v1 + The Big Tradeoff averted: five avenues to promote efficiency and equality simultaneously + https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.18606 + arXiv:2512.18606v1 Announce Type: new +Abstract: Society as a whole faces a host of economic tradeoffs, many of which emerge around economic policies. An example of tradeoffs that any society faces in many economic realms is the tradeoff between economic efficiency and income equality (aka the efficiency-equality tradeoff). This tradeoff has been called "the Big Tradeoff" by the esteemed economist Arthur Okun, who also termed it "the Double Standard of a Capitalist Democracy." Although the efficiency-equality tradeoff is more or less an inevitable tradeoff in most societal settings and economic contexts, there are still some special circumstances in which this tradeoff can be avoided. This paper identifies five such avenues and elaborates on why and how the tradeoff between these two somewhat contradictory societal goals-efficiency and equality-can be deftly averted under the mentioned circumstances. These avenues with their transformative potential can and should be used so that a capitalist society as an integrated whole can promote both efficiency and equality at the same time under these scenarios and avoid facing the Big Tradeoff in cases where it is evitable. Static and dynamic economic models are developed, solved, and applied to facilitate the articulation and exposition of the main points of each solution with formal rigor and logical coherence. Finally, policy implications are discussed. + oai:arXiv.org:2512.18606v1 econ.GN - physics.soc-ph q-fin.EC - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 new http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ - Tobias R\"uttenauer, Kasimir Dederichs, David Kretschmer + 10.1007/s10368-024-00623-x + International Economics and Economic Policy, 2024 + Ali Zeytoon-Nejad + + + (Debiased) Inference for Fixed Effects Estimators with Three-Dimensional Panel and Network Data + https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.18678 + arXiv:2512.18678v1 Announce Type: new +Abstract: Inference for fixed effects estimators of linear and nonlinear panel models is often unreliable due to Nickell- and/or incidental parameter biases. This article develops new inferential theory for (non)linear fixed effects M-estimators with data featuring a three-dimensional panel structure, such as sender x receiver x time. Our theory accommodates bipartite, directed, and undirected network panel data, integrates distinct specifications for additively separable unobserved effects with different layers of variation, and allows for weakly exogenous regressors. Our analysis reveals that the asymptotic properties of fixed effects estimators with three-dimensional panel data can deviate substantially from those with two-dimensional panel data. While for some specifications the estimator turns out to be asymptotically unbiased, in other specifications, it suffers from a particularly severe inference problem, characterized by a degenerate asymptotic distribution and complex bias structures. We address this atypical inference problem, by deriving explicit expressions to debias the fixed effects estimators. + oai:arXiv.org:2512.18678v1 + econ.EM + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + new + http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ + Daniel Czarnowske, Amrei Stammann + + + Incomplete Information and Matching of Likes: A Mechanism Design Approach + https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.18764 + arXiv:2512.18764v1 Announce Type: new +Abstract: We study the implementability of stable matchings in a two-sided market model with one-sided incomplete information. Firms' types are publicly known, whereas workers' types are private information. A mechanism generates a matching and additional announcements to the firms at each report profile of workers' types. When agents' preferences are increasing in the types of their matched partner, we show that the assortative matching mechanism which publicly announces the entire set of reported types is incentive compatible. Furthermore, any mechanism that limits information disclosure to firms' lower contour sets of reported types remains incentive compatible. However, when information is incomplete on both sides of the market, assortative matching is no longer implementable. + oai:arXiv.org:2512.18764v1 + econ.TH + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + new + http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ + Dinko Dimitrov, Dipjyoti Majumdar - The Trust-Building Game: A Model for Sustainable Cooperation - https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.17061 - arXiv:2512.17061v1 Announce Type: new -Abstract: Trust serves as a fundamental pillar of human interactions, playing a crucial role in economic, social, and political relationships. While traditional models of trust primarily focus on the decision making of the first player, this paper introduces an innovative approach that shifts the emphasis to the decision making processes of the second player. The proposed model employs a repetitive structure through which the first player effectively cultivates the second player's trust through consistent and strategic actions. This framework is applicable across various fields, including public policy, marketing, and international relations. It significantly deepens our understanding of the trust-building process and aids in fostering sustainable cooperation in real world scenarios. - oai:arXiv.org:2512.17061v1 + Returns to U.S. and Foreign Experience among Immigrant Men: Evidence from IPUMS Microdata + https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.18827 + arXiv:2512.18827v1 Announce Type: new +Abstract: This paper examines wage returns to labor-market experience with a focus on immigrant assimilation and the portability of foreign-acquired human capital. Using U.S. Census and American Community Survey microdata from IPUMS, I study a sample of male, full-time, private-sector workers and estimate Mincer-style wage regressions with flexible experience-group indicators and fixed effects. Descriptive evidence shows that immigrants earn less than comparable non-immigrants within the same year, but that wages rise with accumulated U.S. experience. Regression results indicate strong and increasing associations between wages and total experience in the pooled sample, with smaller experience gradients among immigrants. Decomposing experience into U.S. and foreign components reveals that returns to U.S. experience are large and monotonic, while returns to foreign experience are substantially smaller across most experience bins. Country-specific evidence for recent migrants suggests steeper experience profiles for migrants from higher-income origin countries. Overall, the findings are consistent with imperfect transferability of foreign work experience and highlight the central role of host-country human capital in immigrant wage growth. + oai:arXiv.org:2512.18827v1 econ.GN q-fin.EC - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 new - http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ - Madjid Eshaghi Gordji, Mohamadali Berahman + http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ + Farhad Vasheghanifarahani - From Aggregate Observations to Social Optimum: An Adaptive Pricing Scheme in Heterogeneous Congestion Games - https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.17157 - arXiv:2512.17157v1 Announce Type: new -Abstract: This study investigates an adaptive pricing scheme aimed at achieving an efficient state in a traffic congestion game characterized by a diverse population of road users. While the planner possesses knowledge of players' preferences, their ability to observe only aggregate states limits the implementation of differentiated taxes. We propose a pricing approach that aligns taxes with the true values of externalities over time, ensuring global stability of the social optimum through replicator dynamics. Our findings suggest that the planner, despite being unable to accurately assess externalities at each moment, can still navigate the economy toward a long-term social optimum by adjusting the disaggregated state based on aggregate observations, while acknowledging the challenges posed by heterogeneous value of time (VOT) among drivers. We also find that a pricing mechanism that incorporates the current externalities for each period, which could be executed by a planner with full access to the disaggregated state, might fail to achieve the global stability of the social optimum under the same dynamics. - oai:arXiv.org:2512.17157v1 + Structural Reinforcement Learning for Heterogeneous Agent Macroeconomics + https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.18892 + arXiv:2512.18892v1 Announce Type: new +Abstract: We present a new approach to formulating and solving heterogeneous agent models with aggregate risk. We replace the cross-sectional distribution with low-dimensional prices as state variables and let agents learn equilibrium price dynamics directly from simulated paths. To do so, we introduce a structural reinforcement learning (SRL) method which treats prices via simulation while exploiting agents' structural knowledge of their own individual dynamics. Our SRL method yields a general and highly efficient global solution method for heterogeneous agent models that sidesteps the Master equation and handles problems traditional methods struggle with, in particular nontrivial market-clearing conditions. We illustrate the approach in the Krusell-Smith model, the Huggett model with aggregate shocks, and a HANK model with a forward-looking Phillips curve, all of which we solve globally within minutes. + oai:arXiv.org:2512.18892v1 econ.TH - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + cs.AI + cs.LG + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 new http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ - Shota Fujishima + Yucheng Yang, Chiyuan Wang, Andreas Schaab, Benjamin Moll - Diversity in Schumpeterian games - https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.17365 - arXiv:2512.17365v1 Announce Type: new -Abstract: We examine the impact of a change in diversity introduced by a new product on the evolution of an economic system. Modeling Schumpeterian competition as a population game with a unique, attracting, evolutionarily stable state (the Schumpeterian state), in which both innovators and imitators coexist, we examine how the Schumpeterian state evolves depending on the properties of the new product developed by innovators. This way, we demonstrate that the change in diversity is one of the spiritus movens of innovation, influencing the process of creative destruction. - oai:arXiv.org:2512.17365v1 - econ.TH - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + Transitivity in International Trade: Evidence from Colombia-U.S. Firm Relationships + https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.18893 + arXiv:2512.18893v1 Announce Type: new +Abstract: A large literature has documented transitivity as a key feature of social networks: individuals are more likely connected with each other if they share common connections with other individuals. We take this idea to trading relationships between firms: firms are more likely to trade with each other if they share common trading partners. Transitivity leads to a clustered pattern of relationship formation and break-up. It is therefore important for understanding how firms meet and how shocks propagate through firm networks. We describe a method for detecting and quantifying transitivity in firm-to-firm transactions, based on systematic deviations from conditional independence across firm-to-firm relationships. We apply the method to Colombia-U.S. exporter-importer data and show in counterfactuals that transitivity is a significant and economically meaningful factor in how firm networks adjust to cost shocks. + oai:arXiv.org:2512.18893v1 + econ.GN + q-fin.EC + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 new http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ - Fryderyk Falniowski, El\.zbieta Pli\'s + Alejandra Martinez, Dennis Novy, Carlo Perroni - The Effects of Initial Low-barrier Employment Availability on Refugee Labor Market Integration - https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.17422 - arXiv:2512.17422v1 Announce Type: new -Abstract: I examine whether the early but temporary availability of low-barrier employment opportunities in the hospitality sector affects the labor market integration of refugees. My identification strategy combines the quasi-exogenous allocation of refugees to Austrian regions with high seasonality in Austria's hospitality sector, where 25% of refugees find initial employment. Exploiting within region, within year variation, I find that receiving labor market access during high seasonal demand increases employment probability initially, with significant employment effects of up to 3 percentage points, or 9% of the mean, in the first months. Employment advantages diminish after the first year, indicating that such early employment opportunities do not serve as a stepping stone. Still, treated refugees have in total earned more in the first three years, with no significant differences in medium-term wages and job quality. One disadvantage of early employment in hospitality is the increased labor market segregation, as treated refugees are more likely to work in industries more typical for refugees and in firms with higher non-Austrian coworker shares. - oai:arXiv.org:2512.17422v1 + Backward Growth Accounting: An Economic Tool for Strategic Planning of Business Growth + https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.19029 + arXiv:2512.19029v1 Announce Type: new +Abstract: Business growth is a goal of great importance for its both private and social benefits. Many firms view business growth as an imperative for their survival, stability, and long-term success. Business growth can be socially beneficial, too, as it enables businesses to expand into new territories where they can stimulate economic growth and development, creates more jobs, increase living standards, and better serve their communities by giving back more through Corporate Social Responsibility initiatives. Business growth must be planned reasonably and optimally so that it can effectively achieve its critical ambitions in business practice. The current common practices for planning the supply side of business growth are usually ad-hoc and lack well-established mathematical and economic foundations. The present paper argues that business growth planning can be pursued more structurally, reliably, and meaningfully within the framework of Growth Accounting (GA), which was first introduced by Economics Nobel Laureate Robert Solow to study economic growth. It is shown that, although GA was initially put forth as a procedure to explain "economic growth" ex-post, it can similarly be used to plan "business growth" ex-ante when a general backward approach is taken in its procedure-called Backward Growth Accounting (BGA) in this paper. Taking this well-established economic-mathematical approach to planning business growth will enhance the current practices conceptually and structurally, as it is built on the basis of economic logic and mathematical tools. BGA can help businesses identify and plan for key drivers of output growth and assess shortcomings in the growth process, such as poor productivity, inadequate labor utilization, or insufficient capital investment. The paper outlines an eight-step procedure for planning business growth using BGA and includes appendices with real-world examples. + oai:arXiv.org:2512.19029v1 econ.GN q-fin.EC - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 new - http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ - Felix Degenhardt + http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ + 10.1002/mde.4519 + Managerial and Decision Economics, 2025; 0:1-22 + Ali Zeytoon-Nejad - Most certainly certain? The Impact of Contract for Difference Design on Renewables' Strike Prices and Electricity Market Risks - https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.17508 - arXiv:2512.17508v1 Announce Type: new -Abstract: Weather, technological and regulatory uncertainties expose actors in highly renewable electricity markets to substantial price and volume risks. Two-way Contracts for Difference (CfDs) can mitigate these risks. They stipulate payments between the government and generators of renewable electricity based on the difference of a strike and a reference price, whose definition and unit of payment differ between CfD designs. We study the effect of three different CfD designs on wind power profit and consumer price volatility under the consideration of uncertain market outcomes in a highly renewable, sector-coupled electricity market. First, we analytically derive optimal strike prices under uncertainty. Second, we numerically determine optimal strike prices based on market expectations retrieved from optimising a set of 36 market scenarios in an energy system model. Third, we study the distribution of ex post market revenues, CfD payments and consumer prices across all 36 scenarios. Compared to purely market-based consumer prices and investor profits, we find all CfDs to significantly reduce volatility. For consumer prices, results show no substantial differences between CfD designs. For investor profits, we identify the highest volatility reduction under a capacity-based CfD with a reference price similar to power plants' individual market revenues. Since such a CfD design is known to diminish the effect of price signals on investment decisions, our results reveal a trade-off between incentivising system-friendliness and reducing investor risk. - oai:arXiv.org:2512.17508v1 + Semiparametric Efficiency in Policy Learning with General Treatments + https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.19230 + arXiv:2512.19230v1 Announce Type: new +Abstract: Recent literature on policy learning has primarily focused on regret bounds of the learned policy. We provide a new perspective by developing a unified semiparametric efficiency framework for policy learning, allowing for general treatments that are discrete, continuous, or mixed. We provide a characterization of the failure of pathwise differentiability for parameters arising from deterministic policies. We then establish efficiency bounds for pathwise differentiable parameters in randomized policies, both when the propensity score is known and when it must be estimated. Building on the convolution theorem, we introduce a notion of efficiency for the asymptotic distribution of welfare regret, showing that inefficient policy estimators not only inflate the variance of the asymptotic regret but also shift its mean upward. We derive the asymptotic theory of several common policy estimators, with a key contribution being a policy-learning analogue of the Hirano-Imbens-Ridder (HIR) phenomenon: the inverse propensity weighting estimator with an estimated propensity is efficient, whereas the same estimator using the true propensity is not. We illustrate the theoretical results with an empirically calibrated simulation study based on data from a job training program and an empirical application to a commitment savings program. + oai:arXiv.org:2512.19230v1 + econ.EM + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + new + http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ + Yue Fang, Geert Ridder, Haitian Xie + + + Structured Event Representation and Stock Return Predictability + https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.19484 + arXiv:2512.19484v1 Announce Type: new +Abstract: We find that event features extracted by large language models (LLMs) are effective for text-based stock return prediction. Using a pre-trained LLM to extract event features from news articles, we propose a novel deep learning model based on structured event representation (SER) and attention mechanisms to predict stock returns in the cross-section. Our SER-based model provides superior performance compared with other existing text-driven models to forecast stock returns out of sample and offers highly interpretable feature structures to examine the mechanisms underlying the stock return predictability. We further provide various implications based on SER and highlight the crucial benefit of structured model inputs in stock return predictability. + oai:arXiv.org:2512.19484v1 econ.GN q-fin.EC - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 new http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ - Silke Johanndeiter, Jonas Finke, Justus Heuer + Gang Li, Dandan Qiao, Mingxuan Zheng - Back to Feedback: Dynamics and Heterogeneity in Panel Data - https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.17576 - arXiv:2512.17576v1 Announce Type: new -Abstract: Many popular estimation methods in panel data rely on the assumption that the covariates of interest are strictly exogenous. However, this assumption is empirically restrictive in a wide range of settings. In this paper I argue that credible empirical work requires meaningfully relaxing strict exogeneity assumptions. Econometricians have developed methods that allow for sequential exogeneity, which in contrast with strict exogeneity allows for the presence of feedback from past outcomes to future covariates or treatments. I review some of the classic work on linear models with constant coefficients, and then describe some approaches that allow for coefficient heterogeneity in models with feedback. Finally, in the last two parts of the paper I review recent work that allows for sequential exogeneity in nonlinear panel data models, and mention possible extensions to network settings. - oai:arXiv.org:2512.17576v1 - econ.EM - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + Owning the Intelligence: Global AI Patents Landscape and Europe's Quest for Technological Sovereignty + https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.19569 + arXiv:2512.19569v1 Announce Type: new +Abstract: Artificial intelligence has become a key arena of global technological competition and a central concern for Europe's quest for technological sovereignty. This paper analyzes global AI patenting from 2010 to 2023 to assess Europe's position in an increasingly bipolar innovation landscape dominated by the United States and China. Using linked patent, firm, ownership, and citation data, we examine the geography, specialization, and international diffusion of AI innovation. We find a highly concentrated patent landscape: China leads in patent volumes, while the United States dominates in citation impact and technological influence. Europe accounts for a limited share of AI patents but exhibits signals of relatively high patent quality. Technological proximity reveals global convergence toward U.S. innovation trajectories, with Europe remaining fragmented rather than forming an autonomous pole. Gravity-model estimates show that cross-border AI knowledge flows are driven primarily by technological capability and specialization, while geographic and institutional factors play a secondary role. EU membership does not significantly enhance intra-European knowledge diffusion, suggesting that technological capacity, rather than political integration, underpins participation in global AI innovation networks. + oai:arXiv.org:2512.19569v1 + econ.GN + cs.AI + q-fin.EC + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 new - http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ - Stephane Bonhomme + http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ + Lapo Santarlasci, Armando Rungi, Loredana Fattorini, Nestor Maslej - Calibrated Mechanism Design - https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.17858 - arXiv:2512.17858v1 Announce Type: new -Abstract: We study mechanism design when a designer repeatedly uses a fixed mechanism to interact with strategic agents who learn from observing their allocations. We introduce a static framework, calibrated mechanism design, requiring mechanisms to remain incentive compatible given the information they reveal about an underlying state through repeated use. In single-agent settings, we prove implementable outcomes correspond to two-stage mechanisms: the designer discloses information about the state, then commits to a state-independent allocation rule. This yields a tractable procedure to characterize calibrated mechanisms, combining information design and mechanism design. In private values environments, full transparency is optimal and correlation-based surplus extraction fails. We provide a microfoundation by showing calibrated mechanisms characterize exactly what is implementable when an infinitely patient agent repeatedly interacts with the same mechanism. Dynamic mechanisms that condition on histories expand implementable outcomes only by weakening incentive compatibility and individual rationality--a distinction that vanishes in transferable utility settings. - oai:arXiv.org:2512.17858v1 - econ.TH - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + Wage-Setting Constraints and Firm Responses to Demand Shocks + https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.19622 + arXiv:2512.19622v1 Announce Type: new +Abstract: This paper investigates how institutional wage-setting constraints, such as a national minimum wage or collectively bargained wages, affect firm responses to demand shocks. We develop a framework to interpret heterogeneous shock responses that depend on the constraints firms face, and provide empirical evidence on the relevance of these constraints in shaping firm behavior across three countries with different institutional settings: Portugal, Norway, and Colombia. We discuss the implications of our findings for conventional estimates of rent-sharing and employer wage-setting power. + oai:arXiv.org:2512.19622v1 + econ.GN + q-fin.EC + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 new - http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ - Laura Doval, Alex Smolin + http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ + Manudeep Bhuller, Lukas Delgado-Prieto, Santiago Hermo, Linnea Lorentzen - Asymptotic Inference for Rank Correlations - https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.14609 - arXiv:2512.14609v1 Announce Type: cross -Abstract: Kendall's tau and Spearman's rho are widely used tools for measuring dependence. Surprisingly, when it comes to asymptotic inference for these rank correlations, some fundamental results and methods have not yet been developed, in particular for discrete random variables and in the time series case, and concerning variance estimation in general. Consequently, asymptotic confidence intervals are not available. We provide a comprehensive treatment of asymptotic inference for classical rank correlations, including Kendall's tau, Spearman's rho, Goodman-Kruskal's gamma, Kendall's tau-b, and grade correlation. We derive asymptotic distributions for both iid and time series data, resorting to asymptotic results for U-statistics, and introduce consistent variance estimators. This enables the construction of confidence intervals and tests, generalizes classical results for continuous random variables and leads to corrected versions of widely used tests of independence. We analyze the finite-sample performance of our variance estimators, confidence intervals, and tests in simulations and illustrate their use in case studies. - oai:arXiv.org:2512.14609v1 - stat.ME + Multimodal LLMs for Historical Dataset Construction from Archival Image Scans: German Patents (1877-1918) + https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.19675 + arXiv:2512.19675v1 Announce Type: new +Abstract: We leverage multimodal large language models (LLMs) to construct a dataset of 306,070 German patents (1877-1918) from 9,562 archival image scans using our LLM-based pipeline powered by Gemini-2.5-Pro and Gemini-2.5-Flash-Lite. Our benchmarking exercise provides tentative evidence that multimodal LLMs can create higher quality datasets than our research assistants, while also being more than 795 times faster and 205 times cheaper in constructing the patent dataset from our image corpus. About 20 to 50 patent entries are embedded on each page, arranged in a double-column format and printed in Gothic and Roman fonts. The font and layout complexity of our primary source material suggests to us that multimodal LLMs are a paradigm shift in how datasets are constructed in economic history. We open-source our benchmarking and patent datasets as well as our LLM-based data pipeline, which can be easily adapted to other image corpora using LLM-assisted coding tools, lowering the barriers for less technical researchers. Finally, we explain the economics of deploying LLMs for historical dataset construction and conclude by speculating on the potential implications for the field of economic history. + oai:arXiv.org:2512.19675v1 + econ.GN + cs.CV + cs.DL + q-fin.EC + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + new + http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ + Niclas Griesshaber, Jochen Streb + + + Reinforcement Learning for Monetary Policy Under Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Analyzing Tabular and Function Approximation Methods + https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.17929 + arXiv:2512.17929v1 Announce Type: cross +Abstract: We study how a central bank should dynamically set short-term nominal interest rates to stabilize inflation and unemployment when macroeconomic relationships are uncertain and time-varying. We model monetary policy as a sequential decision-making problem where the central bank observes macroeconomic conditions quarterly and chooses interest rate adjustments. Using publically accessible historical Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), we construct a linear-Gaussian transition model and implement a discrete-action Markov Decision Process with a quadratic loss reward function. We chose to compare nine different reinforcement learning style approaches against Taylor Rule and naive baselines, including tabular Q-learning variants, SARSA, Actor-Critic, Deep Q-Networks, Bayesian Q-learning with uncertainty quantification, and POMDP formulations with partial observability. Surprisingly, standard tabular Q-learning achieved the best performance (-615.13 +- 309.58 mean return), outperforming both enhanced RL methods and traditional policy rules. Our results suggest that while sophisticated RL techniques show promise for monetary policy applications, simpler approaches may be more robust in this domain, highlighting important challenges in applying modern RL to macroeconomic policy. + oai:arXiv.org:2512.17929v1 + q-fin.ST + cs.AI + cs.LG econ.EM - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 cross - http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ - Marc-Oliver Pohle, Jan-Lukas Wermuth, Christian H. Wei{\ss} + http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ + Sheryl Chen, Tony Wang, Kyle Feinstein - Layer-2 Adoption and Ethereum Mainnet Congestion: Regime-Aware Causal Evidence Across London, the Merge, and Dencun (2021-2024) - https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.14724 - arXiv:2512.14724v1 Announce Type: cross -Abstract: Do Ethereum's Layer-2 (L2) rollups actually decongest the Layer-1 (L1) mainnet once protocol upgrades and demand are held constant? Using a 1245-day daily panel from August 5, 2021 to December 31, 2024 that spans the London, Merge, and Dencun upgrades, we link Ethereum fee and congestion metrics to L2 user activity, macro-demand proxies, and targeted event indicators. We estimate a regime-aware error-correction model that treats posting-clean L2 user share as a continuous treatment. Over the pre-Dencun (London+Merge) window, a 10 percentage point increase in L2 adoption lowers median base fees by about 13% -- roughly 5 Gwei at pre-Dencun levels -- and deviations from the long-run relation decay with an 11-day half-life. Block utilization and a scarcity index show similar congestion relief. After Dencun, L2 adoption is already high and treatment support narrows, so blob-era estimates are statistically imprecise and we treat them as exploratory. The pre-Dencun window therefore delivers the first cross-regime causal estimate of how aggregate L2 adoption decongests Ethereum, together with a reusable template for monitoring rollup-centric scaling strategies. - oai:arXiv.org:2512.14724v1 - physics.soc-ph - econ.EM - stat.AP - stat.ME - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + Will AI Trade? A Computational Inversion of the No-Trade Theorem + https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.17952 + arXiv:2512.17952v1 Announce Type: cross +Abstract: Classic no-trade theorems attribute trade to heterogeneous beliefs. We re-examine this conclusion for AI agents, asking if trade can arise from computational limitations, under common beliefs. We model agents' bounded computational rationality within an unfolding game framework, where computational power determines the complexity of its strategy. Our central finding inverts the classic paradigm: a stable no-trade outcome (Nash equilibrium) is reached only when "almost rational" agents have slightly different computational power. Paradoxically, when agents possess identical power, they may fail to converge to equilibrium, resulting in persistent strategic adjustments that constitute a form of trade. This instability is exacerbated if agents can strategically under-utilize their computational resources, which eliminates any chance of equilibrium in Matching Pennies scenarios. Our results suggest that the inherent computational limitations of AI agents can lead to situations where equilibrium is not reached, creating a more lively and unpredictable trade environment than traditional models would predict. + oai:arXiv.org:2512.17952v1 + cs.GT + cs.AI + econ.TH + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 cross http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ - Aysajan Eziz + Hanyu Li, Xiaotie Deng - Who Connects Global Aid? The Hidden Geometry of 10 Million Transactions - https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.17243 - arXiv:2512.17243v1 Announce Type: cross -Abstract: The global aid system functions as a complex and evolving ecosystem; yet widespread understanding of its structure remains largely limited to aggregate volume flows. Here we map the network topology of global aid using a dataset of unprecedented scale: over 10 million transaction records connecting 2,456 publishing organisations across 230 countries between 1967 and 2025. We apply bipartite projection and dimensionality reduction to reveal the geometry of the system and unveil hidden patterns. This exposes distinct functional clusters that are otherwise sparsely connected. We find that while governments and multilateral agencies provide the primary resources, a small set of knowledge brokers provide the critical connectivity. Universities and research foundations specifically act as essential bridges between disparate islands of implementers and funders. We identify a core solar system of 25 central actors who drive this connectivity including unanticipated brokers like J-PAL and the Hewlett Foundation. These findings demonstrate that influence in the aid ecosystem flows through structural connectivity as much as financial volume. Our results provide a new framework for donors to identify strategic partners that accelerate coordination and evidence diffusion across the global network. - oai:arXiv.org:2512.17243v1 - physics.soc-ph + The Narrow Corridor of Stable Solutions in an Extended Osipov--Lanchester Model with Constant Total Population + https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.18515 + arXiv:2512.18515v1 Announce Type: cross +Abstract: This paper considers a modification of the classical Osipov--Lanchester model in which the total population of the two forces $N=R+B$ is preserved over time. It is shown that the dynamics of the ratio $y=R/B$ reduce to the Riccati equation $\dot y=\alpha y^2-\beta$, which admits a complete analytical study. The main result is that asymptotically stable invariant sets in the positive quadrant $R,B\ge 0$ exist exactly in three sign cases of $(\alpha,\beta)$: (i) $\alpha<0,\beta<0$ (stable interior equilibrium), (ii) $\alpha=0,\beta<0$ (the face $B=0$ is stable), (iii) $\alpha<0,\beta=0$ (the face $R=0$ is stable). For $\alpha>0$ or $\beta>0$ the solutions reach the boundaries of applicability of the model in finite time. Moreover, $\alpha<0,\beta<0$ corresponds to exponential growth of solutions in the original system. Passing to a model perturbed in $\alpha(t),\beta(t)$ requires buffer dynamics repelling from the axes to preserve stability of the solution. + oai:arXiv.org:2512.18515v1 + math.DS econ.GN + math.OC q-fin.EC - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 cross - http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ - Paul X. McCarthy, Xian Gong, Marian-Andrei Rizoiu, Paolo Boldi + http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ + Sergey Salishev - Sharp Structure-Agnostic Lower Bounds for General Functional Estimation - https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.17341 - arXiv:2512.17341v1 Announce Type: cross -Abstract: The design of efficient nonparametric estimators has long been a central problem in statistics, machine learning, and decision making. Classical optimal procedures often rely on strong structural assumptions, which can be misspecified in practice and complicate deployment. This limitation has sparked growing interest in structure-agnostic approaches -- methods that debias black-box nuisance estimates without imposing structural priors. Understanding the fundamental limits of these methods is therefore crucial. This paper provides a systematic investigation of the optimal error rates achievable by structure-agnostic estimators. We first show that, for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE), a central parameter in causal inference, doubly robust learning attains optimal structure-agnostic error rates. We then extend our analysis to a general class of functionals that depend on unknown nuisance functions and establish the structure-agnostic optimality of debiased/double machine learning (DML). We distinguish two regimes -- one where double robustness is attainable and one where it is not -- leading to different optimal rates for first-order debiasing, and show that DML is optimal in both regimes. Finally, we instantiate our general lower bounds by deriving explicit optimal rates that recover existing results and extend to additional estimands of interest. Our results provide theoretical validation for widely used first-order debiasing methods and guidance for practitioners seeking optimal approaches in the absence of structural assumptions. This paper generalizes and subsumes the ATE lower bound established in \citet{jin2024structure} by the same authors. - oai:arXiv.org:2512.17341v1 - stat.ML - cs.LG - econ.EM - math.ST + Accuracy of Uniform Inference on Fine Grid Points + https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.18627 + arXiv:2512.18627v1 Announce Type: cross +Abstract: Uniform confidence bands for functions are widely used in empirical analysis. A variety of simple implementation methods (most notably multiplier bootstrap) have been proposed and theoretically justified. However, an implementation over a literally continuous index set is generally computationally infeasible, and practitioners therefore compute the critical value by evaluating the statistic on a finite evaluation grid. This paper quantifies how fine the evaluation grid must be for a multiplier bootstrap procedure over finite grid points to deliver valid uniform confidence bands. We derive an explicit bound on the resulting coverage error that separates discretization effects from the intrinsic high-dimensional bootstrap approximation error on the grid. The bound yields a transparent workflow for choosing the grid size in practice, and we illustrate the implementation through an example of kernel density estimation. + oai:arXiv.org:2512.18627v1 stat.ME - stat.TH - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + econ.EM + stat.CO + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 cross - http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ - Jikai Jin, Vasilis Syrgkanis + http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ + Shunsuke Imai - Assessing Long-Term Electricity Market Design for Ambitious Decarbonization Targets using Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning - https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.17444 - arXiv:2512.17444v1 Announce Type: cross -Abstract: Electricity systems are key to transforming today's society into a carbon-free economy. Long-term electricity market mechanisms, including auctions, support schemes, and other policy instruments, are critical in shaping the electricity generation mix. In light of the need for more advanced tools to support policymakers and other stakeholders in designing, testing, and evaluating long-term markets, this work presents a multi-agent reinforcement learning model capable of capturing the key features of decarbonizing energy systems. Profit-maximizing generation companies make investment decisions in the wholesale electricity market, responding to system needs, competitive dynamics, and policy signals. The model employs independent proximal policy optimization, which was selected for suitability to the decentralized and competitive environment. Nevertheless, given the inherent challenges of independent learning in multi-agent settings, an extensive hyperparameter search ensures that decentralized training yields market outcomes consistent with competitive behavior. The model is applied to a stylized version of the Italian electricity system and tested under varying levels of competition, market designs, and policy scenarios. Results highlight the critical role of market design for decarbonizing the electricity sector and avoiding price volatility. The proposed framework allows assessing long-term electricity markets in which multiple policy and market mechanisms interact simultaneously, with market participants responding and adapting to decarbonization pathways. - oai:arXiv.org:2512.17444v1 - cs.LG - cs.AI - cs.NE + Smart nudging for efficient routing through networks + https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.18630 + arXiv:2512.18630v1 Announce Type: cross +Abstract: In this paper, we formulate the design of efficient digitalised deposit return schemes as a control problem. We focus on the recycling of paper cups, though the proposed methodology applies more broadly to reverse logistics systems arising in circular economy R-strategies. Each item is assumed to carry a digital wallet through which monetary rewards are allocated to actors transferring the item across successive stages, incentivising completion of the recycling process. System efficiency is ensured by: (i) decentralised algorithms that avoid congestion at individual nodes; (ii) a decentralised AIMD-based algorithm that optimally splits the deposit across layers; and (iii) a feedback control loop that dynamically adjusts the deposit to achieve a desired throughput. The effectiveness of the framework is demonstrated through extensive simulations using realistic paper cup recycling data. + oai:arXiv.org:2512.18630v1 + eess.SY + cs.SY econ.GN + math.OC q-fin.EC - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 cross - http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ - Javier Gonzalez-Ruiz, Carlos Rodriguez-Pardo, Iacopo Savelli, Alice Di Bella, Massimo Tavoni + http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ + Pouria M. Oqaz, Emanuele Crisostomi, Elena Dieckmann, Robert Shorten - Towards Developing an Understanding of Consumers' Perceived Privacy Violations in Online Advertising - https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.03612 - arXiv:2403.03612v4 Announce Type: replace -Abstract: Privacy-enhancing technologies (PETs) represent a critical operational challenge for the online advertising industry, requiring substantial infrastructure investment while promising improved consumer privacy protection. Even when PETs may improve privacy protection from an operational or technical viewpoint, understanding whether PETs actually reduce consumers' perceived privacy violations (PPV) is essential for evaluating their viability. In this research, we characterize advertising practices along the dimensions of tracking and targeting, and understand consumers' PPVs for current practices and proposed PETs through online experiments with U.S. and European consumers. As expected, the industry status quo of behavioral targeting, with high degrees of tracking and targeting, results in high PPV. While new technologies that keep data on users' devices reduce PPV compared to behavioral targeting, the reduction is minimal, including for group-level targeting. Contextual targeting, which involves no tracking, significantly lowers PPV. Not surprisingly, PPV is lowest when tracking is absent, but notably, consumers show similar preferences for untargeted ads and no ads. Importantly, consumer perceptions of privacy violations may not align with technical definitions, suggesting that operational investments in privacy technologies may fail without consumer validation. Therefore, it is essential for managers, industry practitioners, and policymakers to follow a consumer-centric approach to understanding privacy concerns and evaluating the operational viability of privacy-enhancing solutions. - oai:arXiv.org:2403.03612v4 + Modular Landfill Remediation for AI Grid Resilience + https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.19202 + arXiv:2512.19202v1 Announce Type: cross +Abstract: Rising AI electricity demand and persistent landfill methane emissions constitute coupled constraints on U.S. digital infrastructure and decarbonization. While China has achieved a rapid 'de-landfilling' transition through centralized coordination, the U.S. remains structurally 'locked in' to landfilling due to fragmented governance and carbon accounting incentives. This paper proposes a modular legacy landfill remediation framework to address these dual challenges within U.S. institutional constraints. By treating legacy sites as stock resources, the proposed system integrates excavation, screening, and behind-the-meter combined heat and power (CHP) to transform environmental liabilities into resilience assets. A system analysis of a representative AI corridor demonstrates that such modules can mitigate site-level methane by 60-70% and recover urban land, while supplying approximately 20 MW of firm, islandable power. Although contributing only approximately 5% of a hyperscale data center's bulk load, it provides critical microgrid resilience and black-start capability. We conclude that remediation-oriented waste-to-energy should be valued not as a substitute for bulk renewables, but as a strategic control volume for buffering critical loads against grid volatility while resolving long-term environmental liabilities. + oai:arXiv.org:2512.19202v1 + eess.SY + cs.SY econ.GN q-fin.EC - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 - replace - http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ - Kinshuk Jerath, Klaus M. Miller, D. Daniel Sokol + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + cross + http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ + Qi He, Chunyu Qu - Information Revelation in Constant-Sum Games: Elections and Beyond - https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.17084 - arXiv:2406.17084v2 Announce Type: replace -Abstract: We study two-player constant-sum Bayesian games with type-independent payoffs. Under a "completeness" statistical condition, any "identifiable'" equilibrium is an ex-post equilibrium. We apply this result to a Downsian election in which office-motivated candidates possess private information about policy consequences. The ex-post property implies a sharp bound on information aggregation: equilibrium voter welfare is at best equal to the efficient use of a single candidate's information. In canonical specifications, politicians may "anti-pander" (overreact to their information), whereas some degree of pandering would be socially beneficial. We discuss other applications of the ex-post result. - oai:arXiv.org:2406.17084v2 + Three Tiers and Thresholds: Incentives in Private Market Investing + https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.19405 + arXiv:2512.19405v1 Announce Type: cross +Abstract: This paper studies optimal contract design in private market investing, focusing on internal decision making in venture capital and private equity firms. A principal relies on an agent who privately exerts costly due diligence effort and then recommends whether to invest. Outcomes are observable ex post even when an opportunity is declined, allowing compensation to reward both successful investments and prudent decisions to pass. We characterize profit maximizing contracts that induce information acquisition and truthful reporting. We show that three tier contracts are sufficient, with payments contingent on the agent's recommendation and the realized return. In symmetric environments satisfying the monotone likelihood ratio property, the optimal contract further simplifies to a threshold contract that pays only when the recommendation is aligned with an extreme realized return. These results provide guidance for performance based compensation that promotes diligent screening while limiting excessive risk taking. + oai:arXiv.org:2512.19405v1 + cs.GT econ.TH - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + cross + http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ + Jussi Keppo, Yingkai Li + + + srvar-toolkit: A Python Implementation of Shadow-Rate Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility + https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.19589 + arXiv:2512.19589v1 Announce Type: cross +Abstract: We introduce srvar-toolkit, an open-source Python package for Bayesian vector autoregression with shadow-rate constraints and stochastic volatility. The toolkit implements the methodology of Grammatikopoulos (2025, Journal of Forecasting) for forecasting macroeconomic variables when interest rates hit the effective lower bound. We provide conjugate Normal-Inverse-Wishart priors with Minnesota-style shrinkage, latent shadow-rate data augmentation via Gibbs sampling, diagonal stochastic volatility using the Kim-Shephard-Chib mixture approximation, and stochastic search variable selection. Core dependencies are NumPy, SciPy, and Pandas, with optional extras for plotting and a configuration-driven command-line interface. We release the software under the MIT licence at https://github.com/shawcharles/srvar-toolkit. + oai:arXiv.org:2512.19589v1 + stat.CO + econ.EM + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + cross + http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ + Charles Shaw + + + Instrument-Free Demand Estimation Using Relative Prices Variation, with an Application to Railway Transportation + https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.04424 + arXiv:2206.04424v5 Announce Type: replace +Abstract: We develop a new identification strategy for demand estimation when cost shifters may not be available and there are substantial variations in demand over time. This approaches relies on a kind of nonlinear difference-in-differences, in which price elasticities are identified by relating changes over time in relative purchases between two goods to changes in their relative prices. We apply this strategy to the context of French railway transportation and estimate price elasticities in line with those obtained on airlines, but more negative than those generally obtained on railway transportation. We then use our demand estimation to compare the current pricing with several counterfactual pricing strategies. Our results suggest similar or better performance of the actual revenue management compared to optimal uniform pricing, but also substantial losses compared to the optimal pricing strategy. Finally, we highlight the key role of revenue management in acquiring information when demand is uncertain. + oai:arXiv.org:2206.04424v5 + econ.GN + q-fin.EC + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + replace + http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ + Xavier D'Haultf{\oe}uille, Ao Wang, Philippe F\'evrier, Lionel Wilner + + + A Consistent ICM-based $\chi^2$ Specification Test + https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.13370 + arXiv:2208.13370v3 Announce Type: replace +Abstract: In spite of the omnibus property of Integrated Conditional Moment (ICM) specification tests, they are not commonly used in empirical practice owing to features such as the non-pivotality of the test and the high computational cost of available bootstrap schemes, especially in large samples. This paper proposes specification and mean independence tests based on ICM metrics. The proposed test exhibits consistency, asymptotic $\chi^2$-distribution under the null hypothesis, and computational efficiency. Moreover, it demonstrates robustness to heteroskedasticity of unknown form and can be adapted to enhance power towards specific alternatives. A power comparison with classical bootstrap-based ICM tests using Bahadur slopes is also provided. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to showcase the excellent size control and competitive power of the proposed test. + oai:arXiv.org:2208.13370v3 + econ.EM + math.ST + stat.TH + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 replace http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ - Navin Kartik, Francesco Squintani, Katrin Tinn + Feiyu Jiang, Emmanuel Selorm Tsyawo - Raising Bidders' Awareness in Second-Price Auctions - https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.12676 - arXiv:2412.12676v2 Announce Type: replace -Abstract: When bidders bid on complex objects, they might be unaware of characteristics effecting their valuations. We assume that each buyer's valuation is a sum of independent random variables, one for each characteristic. When a bidder is unaware of a characteristic, he omits the random variable from the sum. We study the seller's decision to raise bidders' awareness of characteristics before a second-price auction with entry fees. Optimal entry fees capture an additional unawareness rent due to unaware bidders misperceiving their probability of winning and the price to be paid upon winning. When raising a bidder's individual awareness of a characteristic with positive expected value, the seller faces a trade-off between positive effects on the expected first order statistic and unawareness rents of remaining unaware bidders on one hand and the loss of the unawareness rent from the newly aware bidder on the other. We present characterization results on raising public awareness together with no versus full information. We discuss the winner's curse due to unawareness of characteristics. - oai:arXiv.org:2412.12676v2 + Incentivizing Forecasters to Learn: Summarized vs. Unrestricted Advice + https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.19147 + arXiv:2310.19147v4 Announce Type: replace +Abstract: How should forecasters be incentivized to acquire the most information when learning takes place over time? We address this question in the context of a novel dynamic mechanism design problem in which a designer incentivizes an expert to learn by conditioning rewards on an event's outcome and the expert's reports. Eliciting summarized advice at a terminal date maximizes information acquisition if an informative signal either fully reveals the outcome or has predictable content. Otherwise, richer reporting capabilities may be required. Our findings shed light on incentive design for consultation and forecasting by illustrating how learning dynamics shape the qualitative properties of effort-maximizing contracts. + oai:arXiv.org:2310.19147v4 econ.TH cs.GT - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 replace http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ - Ying Xue Li, Burkhard C. Schipper + Yingkai Li, Jonathan Libgober - Comparative Analysis of OECD Countries Based on Energy Trilemma Index: A Clustering Approach - https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.00785 - arXiv:2512.00785v3 Announce Type: replace -Abstract: This study analyzes OECD countries in the context of the energy trilemma index and clusters countries with similar characteristics. In the study, the k-means clustering technique is used. The optimum number of clusters was determined using the Elbow method in combination with the Silhouette Index. Moreover, all results are visualized to enhance comprehensibility. The results show that countries such as Austria, Canada, Finland, and Denmark are in the high energy trilemma group with index scores of 82.2, 82.3, 82.7, and 83.3, respectively. Countries in the high group have achieved a high level of balance between energy security, energy equity, and environmental sustainability. In addition, countries such as Belgium, Hungary, Australia, the Czech Republic, and Estonia are in the medium energy trilemma group with index scores of 76.4, 76.6, 77.1, 77.6, and 78.7, respectively. Countries in the medium group have made progress in balancing the dimensions of the energy trilemma but have not yet reached excellence. However, countries such as Mexico, T\"urkiye, Colombia, and Costa Rica are in the low energy trilemma group with index scores of 63.1, 64.1, 64.8, and 69.3, respectively. These low energy trilemma group countries face significant challenges in balancing energy security, energy equity, and environmental sustainability and need to make improvements in these areas. - oai:arXiv.org:2512.00785v3 - econ.GN - q-fin.EC - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + Jackknife inference with two-way clustering + https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.08880 + arXiv:2406.08880v3 Announce Type: replace +Abstract: For linear regression models with cross-section or panel data, it is natural to assume that the disturbances are clustered in two dimensions. However, the finite-sample properties of two-way cluster-robust tests and confidence intervals are often poor. We discuss several ways to improve inference with two-way clustering. Two of these are existing methods for avoiding, or at least ameliorating, the problem of undefined standard errors when a cluster-robust variance matrix estimator (CRVE) is not positive definite. One is a new method that always avoids the problem. More importantly, we propose a family of new two-way CRVEs based on the cluster jackknife and prove that they yield valid inferences asymptotically. Simulations for models with two-way fixed effects suggest that, in many cases, the cluster-jackknife CRVE combined with our new method yields surprisingly accurate inferences. We provide a simple software package, twowayjack for Stata, that implements our recommended variance estimator. + oai:arXiv.org:2406.08880v3 + econ.EM + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 replace - http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ - 10.24988/ije.1472312 - Izmir Journal of Economics. 2025. 40(1). 248-271 - Emre Akusta + http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ + James G. MacKinnon, Morten {\O}rregaard Nielsen, Matthew D. Webb - Exploring the Impacts of Economic Growth on Ecosystem and Its Subcomponents in Turkiye - https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.02676 - arXiv:2512.02676v3 Announce Type: replace -Abstract: This study analyzes the impacts of economic growth on ecosystem in Turkiye. The study uses annual data for the period 1995-2021 and the ARDL method. The study utilizes the Ecosystem Vitality Index, a sub-dimension of the Environmental Performance Index. In addition, seven models were constructed to assess in detail the impact of economic growth on different dimensions of the ecosystem. The results show that economic growth has a significant impact in all models analyzed. However, the direction of this impact differs across ecosystem components. Economic growth is found to have a positive impact on agriculture and water resources. In these models, a 1% increase in GDP increases the agriculture and water resources indices by 0.074-0.672%. In contrast, economic growth has a negative impact on biodiversity and habitat, ecosystem services, fisheries, acid rain and total ecosystem vitality. In these models, a 1% increase in GDP reduces the indices of biodiversity and habitat, ecosystem services, fisheries, acid rain and total ecosystem vitality by 0.101-2.144%. The results suggest that the environmental costs of economic growth processes need to be considered. Environmentally friendly policies should be combined with sustainable development strategies to reduce the negative impacts of economic growth. - oai:arXiv.org:2512.02676v3 - econ.GN - q-fin.EC - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + Random Attention and Unobserved Reference Alternatives + https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.01528 + arXiv:2407.01528v5 Announce Type: replace +Abstract: In this paper, I develop and characterize two models of random attention that differ from each other with respect to the menu-dependence of the unobserved reference alternatives. In both models, the decision-maker pays attention to subsets of the available set of alternatives randomly with the reference alternatives being always paid attention to. Under menu-dependence, partial identification of both the reference alternatives and the underlying preferences is provided. For the case of multiple menu-independent references, I provide a complete identification of the references and a coarse identification of the underlying preferences. A complete identification of the latter is provided when the independent random attention function is considered. + oai:arXiv.org:2407.01528v5 + econ.TH + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 replace - http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ - 10.30910/turkjans.1616147 - Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences. 2025. 12(2). 397-411 - Emre Akusta + http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ + Varun Bansal - Measuring and Rating Socioeconomic Disparities among Provinces: A Case of Turkiye - https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.02687 - arXiv:2512.02687v2 Announce Type: replace -Abstract: Regional disparities in the economic and social structures of countries have a great impact on their development levels. In geographically, culturally and economically diverse countries like Turkiye, determining the socioeconomic status of the provinces and regional differences is an important step for planning and implementing effective policies. Therefore, this study aims to determine the socioeconomic disparities of the provinces in Turkiye. For this purpose, a socioeconomic development index covering the economic and social dimensions of 81 provinces was constructed. For the index, 16 different indicators representing economic and social factors were used. These indicators were converted into indices using the Min-Max normalization method and Principal Component Analysis. Afterwards, using these indices, the provinces were divided into groups using the K-Means clustering algorithm and the Elbow method. In the last part of the study, the results are presented in a visual format using Scatter Plots, clustering maps and QGIS mapping tools. The results of the study show that 2 of the 81 provinces in Turkiye have very high, 30 high, 25 medium and 24 low socioeconomic indices. Istanbul and Ankara have very high socioeconomic status. In general, the provinces in western Turkiye have a high socioeconomic index, while the provinces in eastern and southeastern Anatolia face serious challenges in terms of socioeconomic indicators. - oai:arXiv.org:2512.02687v2 - econ.GN - q-fin.EC - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + Robust Bayes Treatment Choice with Partial Identification + https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.11621 + arXiv:2408.11621v2 Announce Type: replace +Abstract: We study a class of binary treatment choice problems with partial identification through the lens of robust (multiple prior) Bayesian analysis. We use a convenient set of prior distributions to derive ex-ante and ex-post robust Bayes decision rules, both for decision makers who can randomize and for decision makers who cannot. + Our main messages are as follows: First, ex-ante and ex-post robust Bayes decision rules do not agree in general, whether or not randomized rules are allowed. Second, randomized treatment assignment for some data realizations can be optimal in both ex-ante and, perhaps more surprisingly, ex-post problems. Therefore, it is usually with loss of generality to exclude randomized rules from consideration, even when regret is evaluated ex post. + We apply our results to a stylized problem where a policy maker uses experimental data to choose whether to implement a new policy in a population of interest, but is concerned about the external validity of the experiment at hand (Stoye, 2012); and to the aggregation of data generated by multiple randomized control trials in different sites to make a policy choice in a population for which no experimental data are available (Manski, 2020; Ishihara and Kitagawa, 2021). + oai:arXiv.org:2408.11621v2 + econ.EM + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 replace http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ - 10.26650/JEPR1472224 - Journal of Economic Policy Researches. 2025. 12(1). 1-45 - Emre Akusta + Andr\'es Aradillas Fern\'andez, Jos\'e Luis Montiel Olea, Chen Qiu, J\"org Stoye, Serdil Tinda - Is Jobless Growth Valid in Turkiye? A Sectoral Analysis of the Relationship between Unemployment and Economic Growth - https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.03821 - arXiv:2512.03821v2 Announce Type: replace -Abstract: This study analyzes the validity of jobless growth in Turkiye on sectoral basis. It analyzes the impacts of agriculture, industry, construction and services sectors on unemployment using annual data for the period 2000-2022. ARDL method is applied within the scope of the analysis. The findings are tested with FMOLS and CCR methods. The results show that growth in all sectors reduces the unemployment. A one-unit increase in the share of agriculture sector in GDP decreases the unemployment rate by 0.471 points, 0.680 points in the industrial sector, 0.899 points in the construction sector and 1.383 points in the services sector in the short-run. The long-run coefficients reveal that the impacts of sectoral growth on unemployment are stronger in the long-run than in the short-run. A one unit increase in the share of the agricultural sector in GDP decreases the unemployment rate by 2.380 points, 4.057 points in the industrial sector, 1.761 points in the construction sector and 3.664 points in the services sector in the long-run. These findings show that jobless growth is not valid in Turkiye in general. On the contrary, economic growth plays an important role in reducing unemployment. - oai:arXiv.org:2512.03821v2 - econ.GN - q-fin.EC - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + Inference in High-Dimensional Panel Models: Two-Way Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity + https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.18772 + arXiv:2504.18772v2 Announce Type: replace +Abstract: Panel data allows for the modeling of unobserved heterogeneity, significantly raising the number of nuisance parameters and making high dimensionality a practical issue. Meanwhile, temporal and cross-sectional dependence in panel data further complicates high-dimensional estimation and inference. This paper proposes a toolkit for high-dimensional panel models with large cross-sectional and time sample sizes. To reduce the dimensionality, I propose a variant of LASSO for two-way clustered panels. While being consistent, the convergence rate of LASSO is slow due to the cluster dependence, rendering inference challenging in general. Nevertheless, asymptotic normality can be established in a semiparametric moment-restriction model by leveraging a clustered-panel cross-fitting approach and, as a special case, in a partial linear model using the full sample. In an exercise of estimating multiplier using panel data, I demonstrate how high dimensionality could be hidden and the proposed toolkit enables flexible modeling and robust inference. + oai:arXiv.org:2504.18772v2 + econ.EM + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 replace - http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ - 10.17541/optimum.1640550 - Optimum Journal of Economics and Management Sciences. 2025. 12(2). 469-486 - Emre Akusta + http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ + Kaicheng Chen - Does Globalization Promote or Hinder Sustainable Development? Evidence from Turkiye on the Three Dimensions of Globalization - https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.03822 - arXiv:2512.03822v2 Announce Type: replace -Abstract: This study analyzes the impact of globalization on sustainable development in Turkiye. We used the ARDL method with annual data for the period 2000-2021. Results reveal that economic globalization promotes positively to sustainable development in the short run with a coefficient of 0.144 and in the long run with a 0.153 coefficient. Although social globalization has a negative impact with a coefficient of -0.150 in the short run, this effect turns positive with a coefficient of 0.080 in the long run. Political globalization strongly supports sustainable development with a coefficient of 0.254 in the short run and 2.634 in the long run. Finally, total globalization has a positive impact on sustainable development in the short and long run with coefficients of 0.339 and 0.196, respectively. - oai:arXiv.org:2512.03822v2 - econ.GN - q-fin.EC - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + Propose or Vote: A Canonical Democratic Procedure + https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.05998 + arXiv:2506.05998v2 Announce Type: replace +Abstract: This paper introduces Propose or Vote (PoV), a democratic procedure for collective decision-making and elections that does not rely on a central mechanism designer. In the first stage, members of a polity choose whether to become proposal-makers or to participate only as voters. In the second stage, voters decide by majority voting over the set of submitted proposals. With appropriately chosen default points, PoV implements the Condorcet winner in a single round of voting whenever one exists. We show that this implementation is globally unique when the number of members is odd; for an even number of members, uniqueness can be restored by adding an artificial agent. PoV can also be applied to elections, where agents decide whether to stand as candidates or vote over the resulting candidate set. + oai:arXiv.org:2506.05998v2 + econ.TH + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 replace - http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ - 10.30794/pausbed.1559282 - Pamukkale University Journal of Social Sciences Institute. 2025. 66. 11--137 - Emre Akusta + http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ + Hans Gersbach - Does Military Expenditure Impede Sustainable Development? Empirical Evidence from NATO Countries - https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.04465 - arXiv:2512.04465v2 Announce Type: replace -Abstract: This study analyzes the impact of military expenditures on sustainable development in NATO countries. The analysis utilizes annual data for the period between 1995 and 2019. In this study, the Durbin-Hausman panel cointegration test is used to analyze the cointegration relationship between the variables and the Panel AMG estimator is used to estimate the long-run coefficients. The results of the AMG estimator show that military expenditures and industrial production index have a negative effect on sustainable development in NATO countries, while foreign direct investments have a positive effect. The impact of primary energy consumption is negative and less significant than the other negative impacts. The study also analyzes how the impact of military expenditures on sustainable development varies across countries. This analysis reveals the significant differences in the direction, significance, and coefficient size of the relationship among different countries. These findings suggest that the impact of military expenditures on sustainable development varies across countries. Therefore, countries should develop policies to ensure sustainable development by considering their specific dynamics. - oai:arXiv.org:2512.04465v2 + NA-DiD: Extending Difference-in-Differences with Capabilities + https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.12690 + arXiv:2507.12690v2 Announce Type: replace +Abstract: This paper introduces the Non-Additive Difference-in-Differences (NA-DiD) framework, which extends classical DiD by incorporating non-additive measures the Choquet integral for effect aggregation. It serves as a novel econometric tool for impact evaluation, particularly in settings with non-additive treatment effects. First, we introduce the integral representation of the classial DiD model, and then extend it to non-additive measures, therefore deriving the formulae for NA-DiD estimation. Then, we give its theoretical properties. Applying NA-DiD to a simulated hospital hygiene intervention, we find that classical DiD can overestimate treatment effects, f.e. failing to account for compliance erosion. In contrast, NA-DiD provides a more accurate estimate by incorporating non-linear aggregation. The Julia implementation of the techniques used and introduced in this article is provided in the appendices. + oai:arXiv.org:2507.12690v2 + econ.EM + stat.ME + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + replace + http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ + Stanis{\l}aw M. S. Halkiewicz + + + Treatment-Effect Estimation in Complex Designs under a Parallel-trends Assumption + https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.07808 + arXiv:2508.07808v3 Announce Type: replace +Abstract: This paper considers the identification of dynamic treatment effects with panel data, in complex designs where the treatment may not be binary and may not be absorbing. We first show that under no-anticipation and parallel-trends assumptions, we can identify event-study effects comparing outcomes under the actual treatment path and under the status-quo path where all units would have kept their period-one treatment throughout the panel. Those effects can be helpful to evaluate ex-post the policies that effectively took place, and once properly normalized they estimate weighted averages of marginal effects of the current and lagged treatments on the outcome. Yet, they may still be hard to interpret, and they cannot be used to evaluate the effects of other policies than the ones that were conducted. To make progress, we impose another restriction, namely a random coefficients distributed-lag linear model, where effects remain constant over time. Under this model, the usual distributed-lag two-way-fixed-effects regression may be misleading. Instead, we show that this random coefficients model can be estimated simply. We illustrate our findings by revisiting Gentzkow, Shapiro and Sinkinson (2011). + oai:arXiv.org:2508.07808v3 + econ.EM + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + replace + http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ + Cl\'ement de Chaisemartin, Xavier D'Haultf{\oe}uille + + + Cautions on Tail Index Regressions and a Comparative Study with Extremal Quantile Regression + https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.01535 + arXiv:2510.01535v2 Announce Type: replace +Abstract: We re-visit tail the index regressions framework. For linear specifications, we find that the usual full rank condition can fail because conditioning on extreme outcomes causes regressors to degenerate to constants. Taking this into account, we provide additional regular conditions and establish its asymptotics in this irregular setup. For more general specifications, the conditional distribution of the covariates in the tails concentrates on the values at which the tail index is minimized. Such issue does not exist for the extremal quantile regression framework, where the tail index is assumed constant. Simulations support these findings. Using daily S&P 500 returns, we find that the extremal quantile regression framework appears more suitable than tail-index regression with respect to the tail rank condition. + oai:arXiv.org:2510.01535v2 + econ.EM + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + replace + http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ + Thomas T. Yang + + + Political Interventions to Reduce Single-Use Plastics (SUPs) and Price Effects: An Event Study for Austria and Germany + https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.15617 + arXiv:2510.15617v2 Announce Type: replace +Abstract: Single-use plastics (SUPs) impose substantial environmental costs. Following Directive (EU) 2019/904, Austria and Germany introduced producer charges and fund payments to finance clean-up. Using a high-frequency panel of retail offer spells with prices and a fixed-effects event-study design with two-way clustered standard errors, this paper estimates the extent to which these costs are passed through to consumer prices. We find clear evidence of price pass-through in Austria. Pooled Austrian SUP products are 13.01 index points more expensive than non-SUP controls within twelve months (DiD(12m); p<0.001) and 19.42 points over the full post-policy period (p<0.001). At the product level, highly taxed balloons exhibit strong and persistent effects (DiD(12m)=13.43, p=0.007; Full DiD=19.96, p<0.001). For plastic to-go cups, the twelve-month estimate is negative but statistically insignificant (DiD(12m)=-22.73, p=0.096), while the full-period estimate is positive and likewise insignificant. In Germany, where the Single-Use Plastics Fund took effect in 2024, the post-policy window is short and estimates are not statistically significant; these results are therefore interpreted as descriptive rather than causal. As the data contain prices but not quantities, the analysis speaks to price incidence on consumers and producers, not to changes in consumption or litter. + oai:arXiv.org:2510.15617v2 econ.GN q-fin.EC - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 replace - http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ - 10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.1511309 - Guvenlik Stratejileri Dergisi. 2024. 20(48). 195-214 - Emre Akusta + http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ + Felix Reichel - Analysis of Provincial Export Performance in Turkiye: A Spectral Clustering Approach - https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.04466 - arXiv:2512.04466v2 Announce Type: replace -Abstract: This study analyzes and clusters Turkiye's 81 provinces based on their export performance. The study uses import, export and net export data for 2023. In addition, exchange rate-adjusted versions of the data were also included to eliminate the effects of exchange rate fluctuations. Spectral clustering method is used to group the export performance of cities. The optimum number of clusters was determined by the Eigen-Gap method. The Silhouette coefficient method was used to evaluate the clustering performance. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that the data set was optimally separated into 3 clusters. Spectral-clustering analysis based on export performance showed that 42% of the provinces are in the "Low", 33% in the "Medium" and 25% in the "High" export performance category. In terms of import performance, 44%, 33%, 33%, and 22% of the provinces are in the "Medium", "High", and "Low" categories, respectively. In terms of net exports, 38, 35% and 27% of the provinces are in the "Low", "Medium" and "High" net export performance categories, respectively. Izmir has the highest net export performance, while Istanbul has the lowest. - oai:arXiv.org:2512.04466v2 + A Unified Metric Architecture for AI Infrastructure: A Cross-Layer Taxonomy Integrating Performance, Efficiency, and Cost + https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.21772 + arXiv:2511.21772v2 Announce Type: replace +Abstract: The growth of large-scale AI systems is increasingly constrained by infrastructure limits: power availability, thermal and water constraints, interconnect scaling, memory pressure, data-pipeline throughput, and rapidly escalating lifecycle cost. Across hyperscale clusters, these constraints interact, yet the main metrics remain fragmented. Existing metrics, ranging from facility measures (PUE) and rack power density to network metrics (all-reduce latency), data-pipeline measures, and financial metrics (TCO series), each capture only their own domain and provide no integrated view of how physical, computational, and economic constraints interact. This fragmentation obscures the structural relationships among energy, computation, and cost, preventing a coherent optimization across sector and how bottlenecks emerge, propagate, and jointly determine the efficiency frontier of AI infrastructure. + This paper develops an integrated framework that unifies these disparate metrics through a three-domain semantic classification and a six-layer architectural decomposition, producing a 6x3 taxonomy that maps how various sectors propagate across the AI infrastructure stack. The taxonomy is grounded in a systematic review and meta-analysis of all metrics with economic and financial relevance, identifying the most widely used measures, their research intensity, and their cross-domain interdependencies. Building on this evidence base, the Metric Propagation Graph (MPG) formalizes cross-layer dependencies, enabling systemwide interpretation, composite-metric construction, and multi-objective optimization of energy, carbon, and cost. + The framework offers a coherent foundation for benchmarking, cluster design, capacity planning, and lifecycle economic analysis by linking physical operations, computational efficiency, and cost outcomes within a unified analytic structure. + oai:arXiv.org:2511.21772v2 econ.GN q-fin.EC - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 replace http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ - 10.18069/firatsbed.1506892 - Firat University Journal of Social Sciences. 2025. 35(1). 123-140 - Emre Akusta + Qi He - Can Renewable Energy Sources Alleviate the Pressure of Military Expenditures on the Environment? Empirical Evidence from Turkiye - https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.04467 - arXiv:2512.04467v2 Announce Type: replace -Abstract: This study analyzes the potential of renewable energy sources to reduce the environmental impact of military expenditures in Turkiye. ARDL method is preferred in the analysis using annual data for the period 1990-2021. In addition, an interaction term is added to the model to determine the effectiveness of renewable energy sources. The results show that military expenditures have a positive impact on CO2 emissions in the short and long run with coefficients of 0.260 and 0.196, respectively. Moreover, renewable energy use has a statistically significant negative impact on CO2 emissions in the short and long run with coefficients of -0.119 and -0.120, respectively. GDP has a positive impact on CO2 emissions in the short and long run with coefficients of 0.162 and 0.193, respectively. Although population growth does not have a statistically significant impact in the short run, it is found to increase CO2 emissions in the long run with a coefficient of 0.095. Moreover, the interaction term shows that renewable energy use reduces the environmental impact of military expenditures in Turkiye in the short and long run with coefficients of -0.130 and -0.140, respectively. The results indicate that renewable energy use can play an important role in mitigating the environmental impacts of military expenditures. - oai:arXiv.org:2512.04467v2 - econ.GN - q-fin.EC - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + The Moroccan Public Procurement Game + https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.10109 + arXiv:2512.10109v2 Announce Type: replace +Abstract: In this paper, we study the public procurement market through the lens of game theory by modeling it as a strategic game with discontinuous and non-quasiconcave payoffs. We first show that the game admits no Nash equilibrium in pure strategies. We then analyze the two-player case and derive two explicit mixed-strategy equilibria for the symmetric game and for the weighted $(p,1-p)$ formulation. Finally, we study the existence of a symmetric mixed strategies Nash equilibrium in the general $N$-player case by applying the diagonal disjoint payoff matching condition. + oai:arXiv.org:2512.10109v2 + econ.TH + math.OC + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + replace + http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ + Nizar Riane + + + Robust Two-Sample Mean Inference under Serial Dependence + https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.11259 + arXiv:2512.11259v2 Announce Type: replace +Abstract: We propose robust two-sample tests for comparing means in time series. The framework accommodates a wide range of applications, including structural breaks, treatment-control comparisons, and group-averaged panel data. We first consider series HAR two-sample t-tests, where standardization employs orthonormal basis projections, ensuring valid inference under heterogeneity and nonparametric dependence structures. We propose a Welch-type t-approximation with adjusted degrees of freedom to account for long-run variance heterogeneity across the series. We further develop a series-based HAR wild bootstrap test, extending traditional wild bootstrap methods to the time-series setting. Our bootstrap avoids resampling blocks of observations and delivers superior finite-sample performance. + oai:arXiv.org:2512.11259v2 + econ.EM + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 replace http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ - 10.35208/ert.1502424 - Environmental Research and Technology. 2025. 8(2). 410-421 - Emre Akusta + Ulrich Hounyo, Min Seong Kim - Assessment and Prioritization of Renewable Energy Alternatives to Achieve Sustainable Development Goals in Turkiye: Based on Fuzzy AHP Approach - https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.05444 - arXiv:2512.05444v2 Announce Type: replace -Abstract: The aim of this study is to prioritize renewable energy sources to achieve sustainable development in Turkiye by using fuzzy AHP method. In our study, we used 30 criteria that affect the investment in renewable energy sources. We also calculated the weights of these criteria in investment decisions. In addition, we analyzed the advantageous renewable energy sources according to each criterion. Thus, it was determined which renewable energy source is advantageous according to which criteria. The results show that the most important main criteria for renewable energy investments in Turkiye are economic, political, technical, environmental and social criteria, respectively. The most appropriate renewable energy sources according to economic, political, technical and social criteria are solar, wind, hydroelectric, - oai:arXiv.org:2512.05444v2 + Location-Robust Cost-Preserving Blended Pricing for Multi-Campus AI Data Centers + https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.14197 + arXiv:2512.14197v2 Announce Type: replace +Abstract: Large-scale AI data center portfolios procure identical SKUs across geographically heterogeneous campuses, yet finance and operations require a single system-level 'world price' per SKU for budgeting and planning. A common practice is deployment-weighted blending of campus prices, which preserves total cost but can trigger Simpson-type aggregation failures: heterogeneous location mixes can reverse SKU rankings and distort decision signals. + I formalize cost-preserving blended pricing under location heterogeneity and propose two practical operators that reconcile accounting identity with ranking robustness and production implementability. A two-way fixed-effects operator separates global SKU effects from campus effects and restores exact cost preservation via scalar normalization, providing interpretable decomposition and smoothing under mild missingness. A convex common-weight operator computes a single set of campus weights under accounting constraints to enforce a location-robust benchmark and prevent dominance reversals; I also provide feasibility diagnostics and a slack-based fallback for extreme mix conditions. Simulations and an AI data center OPEX illustration show substantial reductions in ranking violations relative to naive blending while maintaining cost accuracy, with scalable distributed implementation. + oai:arXiv.org:2512.14197v2 econ.GN q-fin.EC - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 replace http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ - 10.58559/ijes.1494256 - International Journal of Energy Studies. 2024. 9(4). 809-847 - Emre Akusta, Raif Cergibozan + Qi He - The Impact of Natural Disasters on Food Security in Turkiye - https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.05445 - arXiv:2512.05445v3 Announce Type: replace -Abstract: Food security refers to people's access to enough safe nutritious food in order to be able to lead a healthy active life. It also involves elements such as food availability and affordability, as well as people being able to access food that can be consumed healthily. Natural disasters, however, can seriously threaten food security. Disasters' effects on food security are especially more evident in countries such as Turkiye that are frequently exposed to natural disasters due to their geologic and geographical structure. For this reason, the study investigates the effects of natural disasters on food security in Turkiye. The research first creates the Food Security Index in order to estimate the effects of natural disasters on food security. The next phase follows the process of econometric analysis, which consists of three steps. Step one of the econometric analysis uses unit root tests to check the stationarity levels of the series. The second step uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test to examine the long-term relationship between natural disasters and food security. The third and final step estimates the effects of natural disasters on food security. According to the obtained results, the study shows earthquakes, storms, and floods to have a significant short- as well as long-term negative effect on food security. The overall impact of natural disasters on food security has also been determined to be negative. - oai:arXiv.org:2512.05445v3 - econ.GN - q-fin.EC - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + Occupational Tasks, Automation, and Economic Growth: A Modeling and Simulation Approach + https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.16261 + arXiv:2512.16261v2 Announce Type: replace +Abstract: The Fourth Industrial Revolution commonly refers to the accelerating technological transformation that has been taking place in the 21st century. Economic growth theories which treat the accumulation of knowledge and its effect on production endogenously remain relevant, yet they have been evolving to explain how the current wave of advancements in automation and artificial intelligence (AI) technology will affect productivity and different occupations. The work contributes to current economic discourse by developing an analytical task-based framework that endogenously integrates knowledge accumulation with frictions that describe technological lock-in and the burden of knowledge generation and validation. The interaction between production (or automation) and growth (or knowledge accumulation) is also described explicitly. To study how automation and AI shape economic outcomes, I rely on high-throughput calculations of the developed model. The effect of the model's structural parameters on key variables such as the production output, wages, and labor shares of output is quantified, and possible intervention strategies are briefly discussed. An important result is that wages and labor shares are not directly linked, instead they can be influenced independently through distinct policy levers. Generally, labor share depends sensitively on capital-labor ratio, while wages respond positively to larger knowledge stocks. + oai:arXiv.org:2512.16261v2 + econ.TH + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 replace http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ - 10.55280/trcjha.2024.3.1.0003 - The TRC Journal of Humanitarian Action (TRCJHA). 2024. 3(1). 7-25 - Raif Cergibozan, Emre Akusta - - - The gradual transformation of inland areas -- human plowing, horse plowing and equity incentives - https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.00067 - arXiv:2507.00067v3 Announce Type: replace-cross -Abstract: Many modern areas have not learned their lessons and often hope for the wisdom of later generations, resulting in them only possessing modern technology and difficult to iterate ancient civilizations. At present, there is no way to tell how we should learn from history and promote the gradual upgrading of civilization. Therefore, we must tell the history of civilization's progress and the means of governance, learn from experience to improve the comprehensive strength and survival ability of civilization, and achieve an optimal solution for the tempering brought by conflicts and the reduction of internal conflicts. Firstly, we must follow the footsteps of history and explore the reasons for the long-term stability of each country in conflict, including providing economic benefits to the people and means of suppressing them; then, use mathematical methods to demonstrate how we can achieve the optimal solution at the current stage. After analysis, we can conclude that the civilization transformed from human plowing to horse plowing can easily suppress the resistance of the people and provide them with the ability to resist; The selection of rulers should consider multiple institutional aspects, such as exams, elections, and drawing lots; Economic development follows a lognormal distribution and can be adjusted by population mean and standard deviation. Using a lognormal distribution with the maximum value to divide equity can adjust the wealth gap. - oai:arXiv.org:2507.00067v3 - physics.soc-ph - cs.CE + 10.26219/heal.aueb.9609 + Georgios A. Tritsaris + + + Mean-Field Price Formation on Trees with Multi-Population and Non-Rational Agents + https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.11261 + arXiv:2510.11261v3 Announce Type: replace-cross +Abstract: This work solves the equilibrium price formation problem for the risky stock by combining mean-field game theory with the binomial tree framework, adapting the classic approach of Cox, Ross \& Rubinstein. For agents with exponential and recursive utilities of exponential-type, we prove the existence of a unique mean-field market-clearing equilibrium and derive an explicit analytic formula for equilibrium transition probabilities of the stock price on the binomial lattice. The agents face stochastic terminal liabilities and incremental endowments that depend on unhedgeable common and idiosyncratic factors, in addition to the stock price path. We also incorporate an external order flow. Furthermore, the analytic tractability of the proposed approach allows us to extend the framework in two important directions: First, we incorporate multi-population heterogeneity, allowing agents to differ in functional forms for their liabilities, endowments, and risk coefficients. Second, we relax the rational expectations hypothesis by modeling agents operating under subjective probability measures which induce stochastically biased views on the stock transition probabilities. Our numerical examples illustrate the qualitative effects of these components on the equilibrium price distribution. + oai:arXiv.org:2510.11261v3 + q-fin.MF econ.GN q-fin.EC - Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 + q-fin.PM + Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:00:00 -0500 replace-cross - http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ - Hongfa Zi, Zhen Liu + http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ + Masaaki Fujii