#!/usr/bin/env python3 """ train_metalabeler_v3.py — Binary Meta-Labeler for Jinjing V3 Trains a binary LightGBM classifier using REAL ranker predictions (from ranzer_predictions_v3.parquet or similar). Strategy -------- - Load predictions parquet with columns: date, symbol, label, pred_rank, +features - For each date, select top-K candidates by pred_rank (default top-200) - Use 'label' column (0/1) directly as the meta-label - Time-based train/test split (80/20 by date) - Train binary LightGBM with 5-fold time-aware CV - Evaluate AUC, precision, recall, confusion matrix - Upload model to HF dataset Usage: export HF_TOKEN=hf_... python train_metalabeler_v3.py \ --predictions /tmp/ranker_predictions_v3.parquet \ --output /tmp/meta_labeler_v3.txt Output: - /tmp/meta_labeler_v3.txt (LightGBM Booster text dump) - Uploaded to cedwyh/jinjing-shared-data/models/meta_labeler_v3.txt - Console: AUC, Precision@K, best threshold, confusion matrix """ from __future__ import annotations import argparse import json import os import sys import warnings from pathlib import Path import numpy as np import pandas as pd from sklearn.metrics import ( confusion_matrix, precision_score, recall_score, roc_auc_score, roc_curve, ) from sklearn.model_selection import TimeSeriesSplit # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # LightGBM may trigger many informational messages; keep output clean. # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- warnings.filterwarnings("ignore", category=UserWarning, module="lightgbm") try: import lightgbm as lgb except ImportError as exc: print(f"[FATAL] lightgbm is required — install with: pip install lightgbm") sys.exit(1) # =========================================================================== # Constants / defaults # =========================================================================== HF_REPO = "cedwyh/jinjing-shared-data" DEFAULT_TOP_K = 200 # candidates per date DEFAULT_CV_FOLDS = 5 DEFAULT_OUTPUT = "/tmp/meta_labeler_v3.txt" DEFAULT_PREDICTIONS = "/tmp/ranker_predictions_v3.parquet" RANDOM_STATE = 42 TRAIN_SPLIT = 0.8 # fraction of dates for training SCRIPT_DIR = Path(__file__).parent.resolve() RESULTS_DIR = SCRIPT_DIR / "results" # =========================================================================== # 1. Load data # =========================================================================== def load_predictions(path: str) -> pd.DataFrame: """Load the predictions parquet file. If not found locally, download from HF dataset.""" import os if not os.path.isfile(path): print(f" Local file not found: {path}", flush=True) print(f" Downloading from HF dataset cedwyh/jinjing-shared-data/models/ranker_predictions.parquet ...", flush=True) from huggingface_hub import hf_hub_download token = os.environ.get("HF_TOKEN") path = hf_hub_download( repo_id="cedwyh/jinjing-shared-data", filename="models/ranker_predictions.parquet", repo_type="dataset", token=token, ) print(f" Downloaded to cache: {path}", flush=True) print(f"[1/7] Loading predictions from {path} …", flush=True) df = pd.read_parquet(path) required = {"date", "symbol", "label", "pred_rank"} missing = required - set(df.columns) if missing: print(f"[FATAL] Missing required columns: {missing}", flush=True) sys.exit(1) print(f" Loaded {len(df):,} rows × {len(df.columns)} cols", flush=True) print(f" Date range: {df['date'].min()} to {df['date'].max()}", flush=True) print(f" Symbols: {df['symbol'].nunique():,}", flush=True) return df # =========================================================================== # 2. Build meta-labeler training set from real predictions # =========================================================================== def build_meta_dataset( df: pd.DataFrame, top_k: int = DEFAULT_TOP_K, ) -> pd.DataFrame: """ For each date, select top-K stocks by pred_rank, use label directly as meta_label. Parameters ---------- df : DataFrame with columns [date, symbol, label, pred_rank, ...features] top_k : number of top candidates per date to keep Returns ------- DataFrame with meta_label (0/1) and feature columns. """ print(f"[2/7] Selecting top-{top_k} candidates per date by pred_rank …", flush=True) # Sort within each date by pred_rank descending, keep top-K df = df.copy() df["_rank_in_date"] = df.groupby("date")["pred_rank"].rank( method="dense", ascending=False ) candidates = df[df["_rank_in_date"] <= top_k].copy() candidates = candidates.drop(columns=["_rank_in_date"]) # Use 'label' column directly as the meta-label candidates["_meta_label"] = candidates["label"].astype(int) print(f" Candidates selected: {len(candidates):,} rows", flush=True) # Class balance pos = (candidates["_meta_label"] == 1).sum() neg = (candidates["_meta_label"] == 0).sum() print(f" Positives (label=1): {pos:,} " f"Negatives (label=0): {neg:,} " f"Ratio: {pos/neg:.3f}", flush=True) # Date range print(f" Date range: {candidates['date'].min()} to {candidates['date'].max()}", flush=True) print(f" Unique dates: {candidates['date'].nunique()}", flush=True) return candidates # =========================================================================== # 3. Feature engineering # =========================================================================== def get_feature_columns(df: pd.DataFrame) -> list[str]: """Identify feature columns (exclude metadata / id / label columns).""" exclude = { "date", "symbol", "label", "pred_rank", "query_group", "trend_type", "_meta_label", "_pred_score", "_rank_in_date", "index", } return [ c for c in df.columns if c.lower() not in exclude and not c.startswith("__") ] def prepare_xy( df: pd.DataFrame, feature_cols: list[str] | None = None, ) -> tuple[pd.DataFrame, pd.Series, np.ndarray | None]: """Extract feature matrix X, target y, and optional sample weights.""" if feature_cols is None: feature_cols = get_feature_columns(df) X = df[feature_cols].copy() y = df["_meta_label"].values # Basic sanity assert X.shape[1] > 0, "No feature columns found!" assert y.ndim == 1 # Handle any remaining NaN in features nan_count = X.isna().sum().sum() if nan_count > 0: print(f" Warning: {nan_count} NaN values in features — filling with 0.", flush=True) X = X.fillna(0) # Ensure all numeric (no categoricals leaked) for col in X.columns: if X[col].dtype == "object": print(f" Warning: dropping non-numeric feature '{col}'", flush=True) X = X.drop(columns=[col]) return X, y, None # =========================================================================== # 4. Time-based train/test split (80/20 by date) # =========================================================================== def time_split( df: pd.DataFrame, train_frac: float = TRAIN_SPLIT, ) -> tuple[pd.DataFrame, pd.DataFrame]: """Split by date: oldest train_frac fraction of dates for training, rest for test.""" dates = sorted(df["date"].unique()) split_idx = int(len(dates) * train_frac) train_dates = set(dates[:split_idx]) test_dates = set(dates[split_idx:]) train_df = df[df["date"].isin(train_dates)].copy() test_df = df[df["date"].isin(test_dates)].copy() print(f"[3/7] Time-based split: {len(train_dates)} train dates " f"({df[df['date'].isin(train_dates)]['_meta_label'].sum():,} positives), " f"{len(test_dates)} test dates " f"({df[df['date'].isin(test_dates)]['_meta_label'].sum():,} positives)", flush=True) print(f" Train: {len(train_df):,} rows, Test: {len(test_df):,} rows", flush=True) return train_df, test_df # =========================================================================== # 5. Train with cross-validation (on training split) # =========================================================================== def train_cv( X: pd.DataFrame, y: np.ndarray, n_folds: int = DEFAULT_CV_FOLDS, random_state: int = RANDOM_STATE, ) -> tuple[lgb.Booster, float, np.ndarray]: """ Time-series cross-validation using expanding window. Splits are sequential — train on past, validate on future — matching how the model will be used in production. Returns ------- (trained_booster, mean_val_auc, oof_preds) """ print(f"[4/7] Training LightGBM with {n_folds}-fold time-series CV …", flush=True) tscv = TimeSeriesSplit(n_splits=n_folds) params = { "objective": "binary", "metric": "auc", "boosting_type": "gbdt", "num_leaves": 63, "learning_rate": 0.05, "feature_fraction": 0.8, "bagging_fraction": 0.8, "bagging_freq": 5, "reg_alpha": 0.1, "reg_lambda": 1.0, "verbose": -1, "seed": random_state, "first_metric_only": True, } fold_models: list[lgb.Booster] = [] fold_aucs: list[float] = [] oof_preds = np.zeros(len(y), dtype=np.float64) for fold, (train_idx, val_idx) in enumerate(tscv.split(X)): X_tr, X_val = X.iloc[train_idx], X.iloc[val_idx] y_tr, y_val = y[train_idx], y[val_idx] train_data = lgb.Dataset(X_tr, label=y_tr) val_data = lgb.Dataset(X_val, label=y_val, reference=train_data) model = lgb.train( params=params, train_set=train_data, valid_sets=[val_data], valid_names=["valid"], callbacks=[ lgb.early_stopping(stopping_rounds=50, verbose=False), lgb.log_evaluation(period=10), ], num_boost_round=1000, ) fold_pred = model.predict(X_val, num_iteration=model.best_iteration) fold_auc = roc_auc_score(y_val, fold_pred) oof_preds[val_idx] = fold_pred fold_models.append(model) fold_aucs.append(fold_auc) print(f" Fold {fold + 1}/{n_folds} — AUC = {fold_auc:.5f} " f"(best_iter={model.best_iteration})", flush=True) mean_val_auc = float(np.mean(fold_aucs)) oof_auc = roc_auc_score(y, oof_preds) print(f" Mean CV AUC = {mean_val_auc:.5f}", flush=True) print(f" Out-of-fold AUC = {oof_auc:.5f}", flush=True) # Retrain on full training data print(" Retraining on full training set …", flush=True) full_data = lgb.Dataset(X, label=y) best_rounds = int(np.median([m.best_iteration for m in fold_models])) final_model = lgb.train( params=params, train_set=full_data, num_boost_round=best_rounds, valid_sets=[full_data], valid_names=["train"], callbacks=[lgb.log_evaluation(period=0)], ) # Save CV metrics to JSON RESULTS_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) metrics = { "fold_aucs": [float(a) for a in fold_aucs], "mean_cv_auc": mean_val_auc, "oof_auc": oof_auc, "best_iterations": [m.best_iteration for m in fold_models], "median_best_iteration": best_rounds, "n_folds": n_folds, "n_train": len(X), } metrics_path = RESULTS_DIR / "train_metalabeler_v3_metrics.json" try: with open(metrics_path, "w") as fh: json.dump(metrics, fh, indent=2) print(f" Metrics saved to {metrics_path}", flush=True) except Exception as e: print(f" WARNING: Could not save metrics: {e}", flush=True) return final_model, oof_auc, oof_preds # =========================================================================== # 6. Evaluation on test set # =========================================================================== def evaluate( y_true: np.ndarray, y_pred: np.ndarray, label: str = "Test", ) -> tuple[float, list[tuple[int, float, float]]]: """ Evaluate binary classifier on a hold-out set. Returns ------- (best_threshold, precision_at_k_list) """ print(f"[5/7] Evaluating on {label} set …", flush=True) auc = roc_auc_score(y_true, y_pred) fpr, tpr, roc_thresholds = roc_curve(y_true, y_pred) # Youden index -> best threshold youden = tpr - fpr best_idx = int(np.argmax(youden)) best_thr = float(roc_thresholds[best_idx]) print(f" AUC = {auc:.5f}", flush=True) print(f" Best threshold = {best_thr:.5f} (Youden index)", flush=True) # --- Precision@K --- order = np.argsort(y_pred)[::-1] y_sorted = y_true[order] precisions: list[tuple[int, float, float]] = [] for k in (10, 20, 50, 100, 200): if k <= len(y_sorted): prec_k = float(precision_score(y_sorted[:k], np.ones(k), zero_division=0.0)) else: prec_k = float(precision_score(y_sorted, np.ones(len(y_sorted)), zero_division=0.0)) precisions.append((k, prec_k, best_thr)) print(f" Precision@{k:<3d} = {prec_k:.5f}", flush=True) # --- Confusion matrix --- y_pred_bin = (y_pred >= best_thr).astype(int) tn, fp, fn, tp = confusion_matrix(y_true, y_pred_bin).ravel() print(f"\n Confusion Matrix @ threshold = {best_thr:.5f}", flush=True) print(f" Pred Neg Pred Pos", flush=True) print(f" Actual Neg {tn:>8d} {fp:>8d}", flush=True) print(f" Actual Pos {fn:>8d} {tp:>8d}", flush=True) total = tn + fp + fn + tp acc = (tn + tp) / total prec = tp / (tp + fp) if (tp + fp) > 0 else 0.0 rec = tp / (tp + fn) if (tp + fn) > 0 else 0.0 f1 = 2 * prec * rec / (prec + rec) if (prec + rec) > 0 else 0.0 print(f" Accuracy = {acc:.5f}", flush=True) print(f" Precision = {prec:.5f}", flush=True) print(f" Recall = {rec:.5f}", flush=True) print(f" F1 = {f1:.5f}", flush=True) return best_thr, precisions # =========================================================================== # 7. Save model # =========================================================================== def save_model(model: lgb.Booster, path: str) -> None: """Save LightGBM booster in text format and upload to HF dataset.""" import shutil # Always save to /tmp first (writable) tmp_path = "/tmp/meta_labeler_v3.txt" model.save_model(tmp_path) print(f" Model saved to {tmp_path}", flush=True) # Copy to requested output path if different if path and path != tmp_path: try: shutil.copy(tmp_path, path) print(f" Copied to {path}", flush=True) except Exception as e: print(f" WARNING: Could not copy to {path}: {e}", flush=True) # Upload to HF dataset try: from huggingface_hub import HfApi api = HfApi(token=os.environ.get("HF_TOKEN")) api.upload_file( path_or_fileobj=tmp_path, path_in_repo="models/meta_labeler_v3.txt", repo_id="cedwyh/jinjing-shared-data", repo_type="dataset", ) print(f" Uploaded: cedwyh/jinjing-shared-data/models/meta_labeler_v3.txt", flush=True) except Exception as e: print(f" WARNING: HF upload failed: {e}", flush=True) fsize = os.path.getsize(tmp_path) / 1024 print(f" Model saved ({fsize:.1f} KB).", flush=True) # =========================================================================== # 8. Summary # =========================================================================== def print_summary( oof_auc: float, test_auc: float, test_threshold: float, test_precisions: list[tuple[int, float, float]], feature_cols: list[str], ) -> None: """Final summary table.""" print(f"[7/7] Final Summary", flush=True) print("=" * 60, flush=True) print(f" {'Metric':<25s} {'Value':>12s}", flush=True) print("-" * 60, flush=True) print(f" {'CV OOF AUC':<25s} {oof_auc:>12.5f}", flush=True) print(f" {'Test AUC':<25s} {test_auc:>12.5f}", flush=True) print(f" {'Test best threshold':<25s} {test_threshold:>12.5f}", flush=True) for k, p, _ in test_precisions: print(f" {'Test Precision@' + str(k):<25s} {p:>12.5f}", flush=True) print(f" {'Features':<25s} {len(feature_cols):>12d}", flush=True) print("=" * 60, flush=True) # =========================================================================== # CLI # =========================================================================== def parse_args(argv: list[str] | None = None) -> argparse.Namespace: parser = argparse.ArgumentParser( description="Train a binary meta-labeler for Jinjing V3 using real ranker predictions.", formatter_class=argparse.ArgumentDefaultsHelpFormatter, ) parser.add_argument( "--predictions", type=str, default=DEFAULT_PREDICTIONS, help="Path to predictions parquet file.", ) parser.add_argument( "--top-k", type=int, default=DEFAULT_TOP_K, help="Number of top candidates per date by pred_rank.", ) parser.add_argument( "--cv-folds", type=int, default=DEFAULT_CV_FOLDS, help="Number of cross-validation folds.", ) parser.add_argument( "--output", type=str, default=DEFAULT_OUTPUT, help="Path to save the trained LightGBM model (text format).", ) parser.add_argument( "--train-split", type=float, default=TRAIN_SPLIT, help="Fraction of dates (oldest) for training.", ) parser.add_argument( "--hf-token", type=str, default=None, help="Hugging Face token (default: $HF_TOKEN).", ) return parser.parse_args(argv) # =========================================================================== # Main # =========================================================================== def main() -> None: args = parse_args() hf_token = args.hf_token or os.environ.get("HF_TOKEN") if not hf_token: print( "[FATAL] HF_TOKEN not set. Provide via --hf-token or " "the HF_TOKEN environment variable.", flush=True, ) sys.exit(1) # Validate --train-split range if not 0 < args.train_split < 1: print(f"[FATAL] --train-split must be between 0 and 1 (got {args.train_split})", flush=True) sys.exit(1) # ---- 1. Load predictions ---- df = load_predictions(args.predictions) # ---- 2. Build meta dataset (top-K by pred_rank) ---- meta_df = build_meta_dataset(df, top_k=args.top_k) # ---- 3. Feature columns ---- feat_cols = get_feature_columns(meta_df) print(f"[3/7] Using {len(feat_cols)} feature columns: " f"{', '.join(feat_cols)}", flush=True) # ---- 4. Time-based split ---- train_df, test_df = time_split(meta_df, train_frac=args.train_split) # Sort training data chronologically so TimeSeriesSplit splits correctly train_df = train_df.sort_values("date").reset_index(drop=True) # ---- 5. Prepare X, y ---- X_tr, y_tr, _ = prepare_xy(train_df, feat_cols) X_te, y_te, _ = prepare_xy(test_df, feat_cols) # ---- 6. Train with CV ---- model, oof_auc, oof_preds = train_cv(X_tr, y_tr, n_folds=args.cv_folds) # ---- 7. Evaluate on test set ---- test_preds = model.predict(X_te, num_iteration=model.best_iteration) test_thr, test_precisions = evaluate(y_te, test_preds, label="Test") # ---- 8. Save model ---- save_model(model, args.output) # ---- 9. Summary ---- print_summary(oof_auc, roc_auc_score(y_te, test_preds), test_thr, test_precisions, feat_cols) if __name__ == "__main__": main()