File size: 8,586 Bytes
2704016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286

*********************************************************************************
*** Figure 4: The Impact of Elite Connections on Soldier Deaths: Year-by-Year Estimates
*********************************************************************************


use Data\HunanCntyYr.dta,clear


********************************************************************************
********************** gen Zeng Guofan period dummies

gen Post=0 if year<1854
replace Post=1 if year>=1854&year<=1864



foreach y of varlist Zeng_all0_invdist_pc Zeng_all0_pc Zenghu_all Zenghu_all_invdist  Zeng_all0 Zeng_all0_invdist  Zeng_exam0_invdist  Zeng_BMF_invdist Zeng_Juren_invdist lnarea capital lnurbanpop  lnpop  dist_nanjing lnjinshi lnquotas mainriv route1 dist2canal lnwheat lnrice  {
gen `y'_Post=`y'*Post

}


********************** ********************** ********************** **********************
********************** gen year dummies


tab year, gen(year)
local r=1 
while `r'<16 {
local s=`r'+1849
rename year`r' yr`s'
local r=`r'+1
}

**
foreach y of varlist    Zeng_all0_invdist Zeng_all0 Zeng_all0_invdist_pc Zeng_all0_pc{
foreach x of varlist yr1850-yr1852 yr1854-yr1864 {
gen `y'_`x'=`y'*`x'
}
}


**************************

egen  prefidXyear=group(prefid year)


*** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** 
*** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** Weighted


xi: reghdfe  lnmartyr1 Zeng_all0_invdist_yr*    capital_Post lnurbanpop_Post  lnjinshi_Post  lnquotas_Post route1_Post  dist_nanjing_Post mainriv_Post dist2canal_Post  lnwheat_Post lnrice_Post lnpop_Post lnarea_Post      , absorb(year cntyid  prefidXyear)   cluster( cntyid)

outreg2 using Results\Placebo_Yearly_ctrl_all0_invdist.doc, keep(Zeng_all0_invdist_yr* )   se  bdec(3) rdec(3) nocons replace 
parmest, saving( Results\Placebo_Yearly_ctrl_all0_invdist, replace)



*** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** 
*** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** unweighted

xi: reghdfe  lnmartyr1 Zeng_all0_yr*    capital_Post lnurbanpop_Post  lnjinshi_Post  lnquotas_Post route1_Post  dist_nanjing_Post mainriv_Post dist2canal_Post  lnwheat_Post lnrice_Post lnpop_Post lnarea_Post     , absorb(year cntyid  prefidXyear)   cluster( cntyid)

outreg2 using Results\Placebo_Yearly_ctrl_all0_invdist.doc, keep(Zeng_all0_yr* )   se  bdec(3) rdec(3) nocons append 
parmest, saving( Results\Placebo_Yearly_ctrl_all0, replace)


*** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** 
*** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** per capita weighted

xi: reghdfe  lnmartyr1 Zeng_all0_invdist_pc_yr*    capital_Post lnurbanpop_Post  lnjinshi_Post  lnquotas_Post route1_Post  dist_nanjing_Post mainriv_Post dist2canal_Post lnwheat_Post lnrice_Post lnpop_Post lnarea_Post      , absorb(year cntyid  prefidXyear)   cluster( cntyid)

outreg2 using Results\Placebo_Yearly_ctrl_all0_invdist.doc, keep(Zeng_all0_invdist_pc_yr* )   se  bdec(3) rdec(3) nocons append 
parmest, saving( Results\Placebo_Yearly_ctrl_all0_invdist_pc, replace)



*** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** 
*** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** per capita unweighted


xi: reghdfe  lnmartyr1 Zeng_all0_pc_yr*    capital_Post lnurbanpop_Post  lnjinshi_Post  lnquotas_Post route1_Post  dist_nanjing_Post mainriv_Post dist2canal_Post lnwheat_Post lnrice_Post lnpop_Post lnarea_Post     , absorb(year cntyid  prefidXyear)   cluster(cntyid)

outreg2 using Results\Placebo_Yearly_ctrl_all0_invdist.doc, keep(Zeng_all0_pc_yr* )   se  bdec(3) rdec(3) nocons append 
parmest, saving( Results\Placebo_Yearly_ctrl_all0_pc, replace)




********************************* Graphing
*********************************
*********************************
preserve
use Results\Placebo_Yearly_ctrl_all0_invdist, clear


gen i=_n
keep if i<=15
gen time=i


gen zero=0
label var zero "the effect = 0"
label var estimate "the coefficent of logged total deaths"

keep time max95 min95 time estimate zero



replace time=time+1 if time>3
replace time=4 if time==16

foreach x of varlist estimate   {
replace `x'=0 if  time==4
}

foreach x of varlist   max95 min95  {
replace `x'=0 if  time==4
}

replace time=1849+time


****
sort time
label var time "Year"
 

twoway (rcap max95 min95 time, ylabel(-0.25(0.25)0.5) lstyle(ci)  xtitle(" ") )   ///
  (connect estimate time, lp(solid) lc(black) lw(medthick) xline(1853, lpattern(solid) lcolor(blue) lw(medthick)) xsize(6) ysize(6)) ///
       (scatter estimate time, mstyle(p1)  yline(0, lpattern(solid) lcolor(red))  ///
	   legend(off) xlabel(1850(5)1865) graphregion(color(white) ifcolor(white) ilcolor(white) fcolor(white))  saving(Results\Yearly1_All0_invdist, replace) title(A. Weighted connections, size(medsmall)))
   
   
restore




*********************************
preserve
use Results\Placebo_Yearly_ctrl_all0, clear


gen i=_n
keep if i<=15
gen time=i


gen zero=0
label var zero "the effect = 0"
label var estimate "the coefficent of logged total deaths"

keep time max95 min95 time estimate zero



replace time=time+1 if time>3
replace time=4 if time==16

foreach x of varlist estimate   {
replace `x'=0 if  time==4
}

foreach x of varlist   max95 min95  {
replace `x'=0 if  time==4
}

replace time=1849+time


****
sort time
label var time "Year"
 

twoway (rcap max95 min95 time, ylabel(-0.25(0.25)0.5) lstyle(ci)  xtitle(" ") )   ///
  (connect estimate time, lp(solid) lc(black) lw(medthick) xline(1853, lpattern(solid) lcolor(blue) lw(medthick)) xsize(6) ysize(6)) ///
       (scatter estimate time, mstyle(p1)  yline(0, lpattern(solid) lcolor(red))  ///
	    legend(off) xlabel(1850(5)1865) graphregion(color(white) ifcolor(white) ilcolor(white) fcolor(white))  saving(Results\Yearly1_All0, replace) title(B. Unweighted connections, size(medsmall)))
   
   
restore




*********************************
preserve
use Results\Placebo_Yearly_ctrl_all0_invdist_pc, clear


gen i=_n
keep if i<=15
gen time=i


gen zero=0
label var zero "the effect = 0"
label var estimate "the coefficent of logged total deaths"

keep time max95 min95 time estimate zero



replace time=time+1 if time>3
replace time=4 if time==16

foreach x of varlist estimate   {
replace `x'=0 if  time==4
}

foreach x of varlist   max95 min95  {
replace `x'=0 if  time==4
}

replace time=1849+time


****
sort time
label var time "Year"
 
 
twoway (rcap max95 min95 time, ylabel(-0.08(0.08)0.16) lstyle(ci)  xtitle(" ") )   ///
  (connect estimate time, lp(solid) lc(black) lw(medthick) xline(1853, lpattern(solid) lcolor(blue) lw(medthick)) xsize(6) ysize(6)) ///
       (scatter estimate time, mstyle(p1)  yline(0, lpattern(solid) lcolor(red))  ///
	   legend(order(2 "Effects of elite connections")  size(small) row(1) region(color(none)))  xlabel(1850(5)1865) graphregion(color(white) ifcolor(white) ilcolor(white) fcolor(white))  saving(Results\Yearly1_All0_invdist_pc, replace) title(C. Weighted connections per capita, size(medsmall)))
	   
restore




*********************************
preserve
use Results\Placebo_Yearly_ctrl_all0_pc, clear


gen i=_n
keep if i<=15
gen time=i


gen zero=0
label var zero "the effect = 0"
label var estimate "the coefficent of logged total deaths"

keep time max95 min95 time estimate zero



replace time=time+1 if time>3
replace time=4 if time==16

foreach x of varlist estimate   {
replace `x'=0 if  time==4
}

foreach x of varlist   max95 min95  {
replace `x'=0 if  time==4
}

replace time=1849+time


****
sort time
label var time "Year"
 
 
  
twoway (rcap max95 min95 time, ylabel(-0.08(0.08)0.16) lstyle(ci)  xtitle(" ") )   ///
  (connect estimate time, lp(solid) lc(black) lw(medthick)  xline(1853, lpattern(solid) lcolor(blue) lw(medthick)) xsize(6) ysize(6)) ///
       (scatter estimate time, mstyle(p1)  yline(0, lpattern(solid) lcolor(red))  ///
	   legend(order(1 "95% CI")  size(small) row(1) region(color(none)))  xlabel(1850(5)1865) graphregion(color(white) ifcolor(white) ilcolor(white) fcolor(white))  saving(Results\Yearly1_All0_pc, replace) title(D. Unweighted connections per capita, size(medsmall)))
   
   
restore


gr combine Results\Yearly1_All0_invdist.gph  Results\Yearly1_All0.gph Results\Yearly1_All0_invdist_pc.gph  Results\Yearly1_All0_pc.gph  , row(2)  ysize(18) xsize(15)  graphregion(color(white) ifcolor(white) ilcolor(white) fcolor(white))
graph export Results\Figure_4.png, replace