anonymous-submission-acl2025's picture
add 42
2a8276b
close all
set(groot, 'DefaultAxesLineWidth', 1.5);
set(groot, 'DefaultLineLineWidth', 4);
set(groot, 'DefaultAxesTickLabelInterpreter','latex');
set(groot, 'DefaultLegendInterpreter','latex');
set(groot, 'DefaultAxesFontSize',24);
S = 5;
Asim = zeros(2*N, T, S + 1);
Osim = zeros(2*N, T, S + 1);
Thsim = zeros(2*N, T, S + 1);
Hsim = zeros(2*N, T, S + 1);
Csim = zeros(2*N, T, S);
Lsim = zeros(2*N, T, S);
Dsim = zeros(2*N, T, S);
Ysim = zeros(2*N, T, S);
Zsim = zeros(2*N, T, S);
Esim = zeros(2*N, T, S);
Vsim = zeros(2*N, T, S);
Pallsim = zeros(2*N, 5, T, S);
Vallsim = zeros(2*N, 5, T, S);
Usim = zeros(2*N, T, S);
Deltasim = zeros(2*N, T, S);
Agesim = zeros(2*N, T, S);
Asim(:, :, 1) = Asave(:, 1 : T);
Osim(:, :, 1) = Osave(:, 1 : T);
Thsim(:, :, 1) = Thsave(:, 1 : T);
Hsim(:, :, 1) = Hsave(:, 1 : T);
Csim(:, :, 1) = Csave(:, 1 : T);
Lsim(:, :, 1) = Lsave(:, 1 : T);
Dsim(:, :, 1) = Dsave(:, 1 : T);
Ysim(:, :, 1) = Ysave(:, 1 : T);
Zsim(:, :, 1) = Zsave(:, 1 : T);
Esim(:, :, 1) = Esave(:, 1 : T);
Vsim(:, :, 1) = Vsave(:, 1 : T);
Usim(:, :, 1) = Usave(:, 1 : T);
Deltasim(:, :, 1) = Deltasave(:, 1 : T);
Pallsim(:, :, :, 1) = Pallsave;
Vallsim(:, :, :, 1) = Vallsave;
Agesim(:,:,1) = repmat((1 : 1 : T), 2*N, 1);
index = nodeunif(N, 1e-14, 1 - 1e-14);
% First simulate history of shocks to income
for time = 2 : S
Agesim(:, :, time) = rem(Agesim(:, : , time - 1), T) + 1;
for initage = 1 : T % go over all initial age bins
unif = index(randperm(N)); unif = [unif; 1 - unif]; % mirror sampling
Fzcum = [zeros(2*N, 1), cumsum(Fzz(Zsim(:, initage, time - 1), :), 2)];
Zsim(:, initage, time) = ((unif < Fzcum(:, 2:end)).*(unif >= Fzcum(:,1:end-1)))*(1 : 1 : p.nz)';
unif = index(randperm(N)); unif = [unif; 1 - unif];
[~, bin] = histc(unif, Fecum); % bin is the index of e transitory shock
Esim(:, initage, time) = bin;
Ysim(:, initage, time) = p.lambdat(Agesim(:, initage, time)).*p.zgrid(Zsim(:, initage, time)).*p.egrid(Esim(:, initage, time));
end
Usim(:, :, time) = rand(2*N, T);
Deltasim(:, :, time) = rand(2*N, T);
Deltasim(:, :, time) = p.delta(1)*(Deltasim(:, :, time) <= p.pidelta(1)) + p.delta(2)*(Deltasim(:, :, time) > p.pidelta(1));
end
Asim(:, 1 : T - 1, 2) = Asave(:, 2 : T);
Asim(:, T, 2) = 0;
Osim(:, 1 : T - 1, 2) = Osave(:, 2 : T);
Osim(:, T, 2) = 0;
Thsim(:, 1 : T - 1, 2) = Thsave(:, 2 : T);
Thsim(:, T, 2) = 0;
Hsim(:, 1 : T - 1, 2) = Hsave(:, 2 : T);
Hsim(:, T, 2) = 0;
for time = 2 : S
for initage = 1 : T
age = Agesim(1, initage, time);
Whinterp = griddedInterpolant({p.lgrid, (1: 1: p.no*p.nt*p.nh*p.nz)'}, reshape(wh(:, age), p.nl, p.no*p.nt*p.nh*p.nz), intmeth, 'linear');
Wrinterp = griddedInterpolant({p.lgrid, (1: 1: p.nz)'}, reshape(wr(:, age), p.nl, p.nz), intmeth, 'linear');
rent = Hsim(:, initage, time) == 0;
% Renters
state = (1 + interest(Asim(rent, initage, time), p)).*Asim(rent, initage, time);
ntemp = numel(find(rent));
[Lall, Oall, Thall, Hall, Vsim(rent, initage, time), Pallsim(rent, 1 : 3, initage, time), Vallsim(rent, 1 : 3, initage, time)] = ...
solveh(state, Whinterp, Wrinterp, p, p.thetay(age), 'r', state(:,1), Ysim(rent, initage, time), Zsim(rent, initage, time));
Pcum = [zeros(ntemp, 1), cumsum(Pallsim(rent, 1 : 3, initage, time), 2)];
Dsim(rent, initage, time) = ((Usim(rent, initage, time) < Pcum(:, 2:end)).*(Usim(rent, initage, time) >= Pcum(:,1:end-1)))*(1 : 1 : 3)';
ind = sub2ind([ntemp, 3], (1 : 1 : ntemp)', Dsim(rent, initage, time));
Lsim(rent, initage, time) = Lall(ind);
Osim(rent, initage, time + 1) = Oall(ind);
Thsim(rent, initage, time + 1) = Thall(ind);
Hsim(rent, initage, time + 1) = Hall(ind);
% Homeowners
Attemp = (1 + interest(Asim(~rent, initage, time), p)).*Asim(~rent, initage, time) - Deltasim(~rent, initage, time).*Hsim(~rent, initage, time);
state = [Attemp, Osim(~rent, initage, time), Thsim(~rent, initage, time), Hsim(~rent, initage, time)]; % others don't matter directly
hind = lookup1(p.hgrid, state(:, 4), 1);
tind = lookup1(p.tgrid, state(:, 3), 1);
ntemp = numel(find(~rent));
[Lall, Oall, Thall, Hall, Vsim(~rent, initage, time), Pallsim(~rent, :, initage, time), Vallsim(~rent, :, initage, time)] = ...
solveh(state, Whinterp, Wrinterp, p, p.thetay(age), 'h', state(:,1), Ysim(~rent, initage, time), Zsim(~rent, initage, time), hind, tind);
Pcum = [zeros(ntemp, 1), cumsum(Pallsim(~rent, :, initage, time), 2)];
Dsim(~rent, initage, time) = ((Usim(~rent, initage, time) < Pcum(:, 2:end)).*(Usim(~rent, initage, time) >= Pcum(:,1:end-1)))*(1 : 1 : 5)';
ind = sub2ind([ntemp, 5], (1 : 1 : ntemp)', Dsim(~rent, initage, time));
Lsim(~rent, initage, time) = Lall(ind);
Osim(~rent, initage, time + 1) = Oall(ind);
Thsim(~rent, initage, time + 1) = Thall(ind);
Hsim(~rent, initage, time + 1) = Hall(ind);
% Find consumption
rent = Hsim(:, initage, time + 1) == 0;
Chint = griddedInterpolant({p.lgrid, p.ogrid, p.tgrid, p.hgrid, p.zgrid}, reshape(ch(:, age), p.nl, p.no, p.nt, p.nh, p.nz), intmeth, 'linear');
Crint = griddedInterpolant({p.lgrid, p.zgrid}, reshape(cr(:, age), p.nl, p.nz), intmeth, 'linear');
cmin = bisect('savings', 1e-13, 1e5, Lsim(rent, initage, time), p, 'r', amax); % c that implies a' = amin
cmax = bisect('savings', 1e-13, 1e5, Lsim(rent, initage, time), p, 'r', amin); % c that implies a' = amin
Csim(rent, initage, time) = max(min(Crint(Lsim(rent, initage, time), p.zgrid(Zsim(rent, initage, time))), cmax), cmin);
[~, Asim(rent, initage, time + 1)] = savings(Csim(rent, initage, time), Lsim(rent, initage, time), p, 'r'); % none of the other state variables matter
cmin = bisect('savings', 1e-13, 1e5, Lsim(~rent, initage, time), p, 'h', amax); % c that implies a' = amin
cmax = bisect('savings', 1e-13, 1e5, Lsim(~rent, initage, time), p, 'h', amin); % c that implies a' = amin
Csim(~rent, initage, time) = max(min(Chint(Lsim(~rent, initage, time), Osim(~rent,initage, time + 1), Thsim(~rent,initage, time + 1), Hsim(~rent,initage, time + 1), p.zgrid(Zsim(~rent, initage, time))), cmax), cmin);
[~, Asim(~rent, initage, time + 1)] = savings(Csim(~rent, initage, time), Lsim(~rent, initage, time), p, 'h'); % none of the other state variables matter
if age == T
Asim(:, initage, time + 1) = 0;
Osim(:, initage, time + 1) = 0;
Thsim(:, initage, time + 1) = 0;
Hsim(:, initage, time + 1) = 0;
end
end
end
Ct = zeros(S, 1);
Yt = zeros(S, 1);
At = zeros(S, 1);
Ht = zeros(S, 1);
Dt = zeros(S, 1);
% find out who is constrained in period 2
for time = 1 : S
Ct(time) = mean(vec(Csim(:, :, time)));
Yt(time) = mean(vec(Ysim(:, :, time)));
Ht(time) = mean(vec(Hsim(:, :, time)));
At(time) = mean(vec(Asim(:, :, time)));
Dt(time) = mean(vec(Osim(:, :, time).*Thsim(:, :, time).*Hsim(:, :, time)));
end
% Next Study Liquidity Injection: raise everyone's omega by 1% and increase A by the corresponding amount
Acsim = Asim;
Ocsim = Osim;
Thcsim = Thsim;
Hcsim = Hsim;
Ccsim = Csim;
Lcsim = Lsim;
Dcsim = Dsim;
Vcsim = Vsim;
Pallcsim = Pallsim;
Vallcsim = Vallsim;
time = 2;
Thcsim(:, :, time) = Thsim(:, :, time).*(Thsim(:, :,time) > 0 & Hsim(:,:,time) > 0) + p.tgrid(end).*(Thsim(:, :,time) == 0 & Hsim(:,:,time) > 0);
Ocsim(:, :, time) = min(Osim(:, :, time) + 0.01/(1 + p.rm)./Thcsim(:, :, time), 1).*(Hsim(:, :, time) > 0);
Transfer = (1 + p.rm)*(Ocsim(:, :, time).*Thcsim(:, :, time) - Osim(:, :, time).*Thsim(:, :, time)).*Hsim(:, :, time);
RHS = (1 + interest(Asim(:, :, time), p)).*Asim(:, :, time) + Transfer;
data = [RHS(:)./(1 + p.rh), RHS(:)./(1 + p.rl)];
Acsim(:, :, time) = reshape(bisect('findtransfer', min(data, [], 2) - 0.1, max(data, [], 2)+0.1, RHS(:), p), 2*N, T);
%Ocsim(:, :, time) = Osim(:, :, time);
%Thcsim(:, :, time) = Thsim(:, :, time);
for time = 2 : S
for initage = 1 : T
age = Agesim(1, initage, time);
Whinterp = griddedInterpolant({p.lgrid, (1: 1: p.no*p.nt*p.nh*p.nz)'}, reshape(wh(:, age), p.nl, p.no*p.nt*p.nh*p.nz), intmeth, 'linear');
Wrinterp = griddedInterpolant({p.lgrid, (1: 1: p.nz)'}, reshape(wr(:, age), p.nl, p.nz), intmeth, 'linear');
% Renters
rent = Hcsim(:, initage, time) == 0;
state = (1 + interest(Acsim(rent, initage, time), p)).*Acsim(rent, initage, time);
ntemp = numel(find(rent));
[Lall, Oall, Thall, Hall, Vcsim(rent, initage, time), Pallcsim(rent, 1 : 3, initage, time), Vallcsim(rent, 1 : 3, initage, time)] = ...
solveh(state, Whinterp, Wrinterp, p, p.thetay(age), 'r', state(:,1), Ysim(rent, initage, time), Zsim(rent, initage, time));
Pcum = [zeros(ntemp, 1), cumsum(Pallcsim(rent, 1 : 3, initage, time), 2)];
Dcsim(rent, initage, time) = ((Usim(rent, initage, time) < Pcum(:, 2:end)).*(Usim(rent, initage, time) >= Pcum(:,1:end-1)))*(1 : 1 : 3)';
ind = sub2ind([ntemp, 3], (1 : 1 : ntemp)', Dcsim(rent, initage, time));
Lcsim(rent, initage, time) = Lall(ind);
Ocsim(rent, initage, time + 1) = Oall(ind);
Thcsim(rent, initage, time + 1) = Thall(ind);
Hcsim(rent, initage, time + 1) = Hall(ind);
% Homeowners
Attemp = (1 + interest(Acsim(~rent, initage, time), p)).*Acsim(~rent, initage, time) - Deltasim(~rent, initage, time).*Hcsim(~rent, initage, time);
state = [Attemp, Ocsim(~rent, initage, time), Thcsim(~rent, initage, time), Hcsim(~rent, initage, time)]; % others don't matter directly
hind = lookup1(p.hgrid, state(:, 4), 1);
tind = lookup1(p.tgrid, state(:, 3), 1);
ntemp = numel(find(~rent));
[Lall, Oall, Thall, Hall, Vcsim(~rent, initage, time), Pallcsim(~rent, :, initage, time), Vallcsim(~rent, :, initage, time)] = ...
solveh(state, Whinterp, Wrinterp, p, p.thetay(age), 'h', state(:,1), Ysim(~rent, initage, time), Zsim(~rent, initage, time), hind, tind);
Pcum = [zeros(ntemp, 1), cumsum(Pallcsim(~rent, :, initage, time), 2)];
unif = rand(ntemp, 1);
Dcsim(~rent, initage, time) = ((Usim(~rent, initage, time) < Pcum(:, 2:end)).*(Usim(~rent, initage, time) >= Pcum(:,1:end-1)))*(1 : 1 : 5)';
ind = sub2ind([ntemp, 5], (1 : 1 : ntemp)', Dcsim(~rent, initage, time));
Lcsim(~rent, initage, time) = Lall(ind);
Ocsim(~rent, initage, time + 1) = Oall(ind);
Thcsim(~rent, initage, time + 1) = Thall(ind);
Hcsim(~rent, initage, time + 1) = Hall(ind);
% Find consumption
rent = Hcsim(:, initage, time + 1) == 0;
Chint = griddedInterpolant({p.lgrid, p.ogrid, p.tgrid, p.hgrid, p.zgrid}, reshape(ch(:, age), p.nl, p.no, p.nt, p.nh, p.nz), intmeth, 'linear');
Crint = griddedInterpolant({p.lgrid, p.zgrid}, reshape(cr(:, age), p.nl, p.nz), intmeth, 'linear');
cmin = bisect('savings', 1e-13, 1e5, Lcsim(rent, initage, time), p, 'r', amax); % c that implies a' = amin
cmax = bisect('savings', 1e-13, 1e5, Lcsim(rent, initage, time), p, 'r', amin); % c that implies a' = amin
Ccsim(rent, initage, time) = max(min(Crint(Lcsim(rent, initage, time), p.zgrid(Zsim(rent, initage, time))), cmax), cmin);
[~, Acsim(rent, initage, time + 1)] = savings(Ccsim(rent, initage, time), Lcsim(rent, initage, time), p, 'r'); % none of the other state variables matter
cmin = bisect('savings', 1e-13, 1e5, Lcsim(~rent, initage, time), p, 'h', amax); % c that implies a' = amin
cmax = bisect('savings', 1e-13, 1e5, Lcsim(~rent, initage, time), p, 'h', amin); % c that implies a' = amin
Ccsim(~rent, initage, time) = max(min(Chint(Lcsim(~rent, initage, time), Ocsim(~rent,initage, time + 1), Thcsim(~rent,initage, time + 1), Hcsim(~rent,initage, time + 1), p.zgrid(Zsim(~rent, initage, time))), cmax), cmin);
[~, Acsim(~rent, initage, time + 1)] = savings(Ccsim(~rent, initage, time), Lcsim(~rent, initage, time), p, 'h'); % none of the other state variables matter
if age == T
Acsim(:, initage, time + 1) = 0;
Ocsim(:, initage, time + 1) = 0;
Thcsim(:, initage, time + 1) = 0;
Hcsim(:, initage, time + 1) = 0;
end
end
end
Cct = zeros(S, 1);
Act = zeros(S, 1);
Hct = zeros(S, 1);
Dct = zeros(S, 1);
for time = 1 : S
Cct(time) = mean(vec(Ccsim(:, :, time)));
Hct(time) = mean(vec(Hcsim(:, :, time)));
Act(time) = mean(vec(Acsim(:, :, time)));
Dct(time) = mean(vec(Ocsim(:, :, time).*Thcsim(:, :, time).*Hcsim(:, :, time)));
end
MPCt = (Cct - Ct)/mean(vec(Transfer));
% Ask: how many homeowners (in period time = 2) benefit, so Vcsim(:, :, time) > Vsim(:, :, time) and what do
% 1. Fraction of homeowners who benefit
% 2. Distribution of welfare gains
Vnew = reshape(Vcsim(:, :, 2), 2*N*T, 1);
Vold = reshape(Vsim(:, :, 2), 2*N*T, 1);
UCold = reshape(Csim(:, :, 2).^(- p.sigma), 2*N*T, 1);
Transfer = reshape(Transfer, 2*N*T, 1);
PTI = p.mbar*Thsim(:, :, 2).*Hsim(:, :, 2)./Ysim(:,:,2).*(Osim(:, :, 2) > 0);
ind = Transfer > 0;
gains = max(min((Vnew(ind) - Vold(ind))./Transfer(ind)./UCold(ind), 1), 0); % small fraction due to interpolation error
htm = PTI >=0.17;
htm = reshape(htm, 2*N*T, 1);
htm = htm(ind);
fbenefit = mean(gains > 0);
MPC = (Ccsim(:, :, 2) - p.phi^(1 + 1/p.gamma)*Ccsim(:, :, 2).^(-p.sigma/p.gamma) - (Csim(:, :, 2) - p.phi^(1 + 1/p.gamma)*Csim(:, :, 2).^(-p.sigma/p.gamma)));
MPC = reshape(MPC, 2*N*T, 1);
MPC = MPC(ind)./Transfer(ind);
clc
fprintf('Table 6\n')
fprintf('\n')
fprintf('A. Value of Liquidity\n')
fprintf('\n')
fprintf('Fraction better off = %9.2f \n', fbenefit);
fprintf('\n')
fprintf('Willingness to pay\n');
fprintf('\n')
fprintf('mean = %9.2f \n', mean(gains(gains > 0)));
fprintf('10th pctile = %9.2f \n', prctile(gains(gains > 0), 10));
fprintf('25th pctile = %9.2f \n', prctile(gains(gains > 0), 25));
fprintf('50th pctile = %9.2f \n', prctile(gains(gains > 0), 50));
fprintf('75th pctile = %9.2f \n', prctile(gains(gains > 0), 75));
fprintf('90th pctile = %9.2f \n', prctile(gains(gains > 0), 90));
fprintf('\n')
fprintf('\n')
fprintf('B. Fraction Consumed \n')
fprintf('\n')
fprintf('mean = %9.2f \n', mean(MPC(gains > 0)));
fprintf('10th pctile = %9.2f \n', prctile(MPC(gains > 0), 10));
fprintf('25th pctile = %9.2f \n', prctile(MPC(gains > 0), 25));
fprintf('50th pctile = %9.2f \n', prctile(MPC(gains > 0), 50));
fprintf('75th pctile = %9.2f \n', prctile(MPC(gains > 0), 75));
fprintf('90th pctile = %9.2f \n', prctile(MPC(gains > 0), 90));
% plot value of liquidity as a function of various characteristics
% 1. Loan to Value
ltv = Thsim(:, :, 2).*Osim(:,:,2);
lasst = Asim(:, :, 2)./(Asim(:,:,2) + (1 - Thsim(:, :, 2).*Osim(:, :, 2)).*Hsim(:,:,2)); % liquid assets to wealth
logy = log(Ysim(:, :, 2)); % log income
pti = p.mbar*Thsim(:, :, 2).*Hsim(:, :, 2)./Ysim(:,:,2).*(Osim(:, :, 2) > 0);
ltv = ltv(ind);
lasst = lasst(ind);
logy = logy(ind);
pti = pti(ind);
prefi = squeeze(Pallsim(:, 4, :, time));
prefi = prefi(ind);
xx = [ltv, pti, lasst, logy];
yy = gains;
figure(5)
subplot(2, 2, 1)
[xxmed, yymed] = binned_plot(xx(:,1), yy, 11);
ff = fit(xxmed, yymed, 'smoothingspline');
xnode = nodeunif(11, 0, 0.9);
scatter(xnode, ff(xnode), 150, [0.02, 0.26, 0.48], 'filled'); set(gca, 'ygrid', 'on');
hold on;
ffs = griddedInterpolant(xnode, ff(xnode), 'pchip');
xxnodes = nodeunif(100, xnode(1), xnode(end));
plot(xxnodes, ffs(xxnodes), 'LineWidth', 4, 'Color', [0.02, 0.26, 0.48])
xlabel('loan-to-value ratio','Interpreter','latex');
ylabel('value of liquidity','Interpreter','latex');
title('A. LTV','Interpreter','latex');
box on
subplot(2, 2, 2)
[xxmed, yymed] = binned_plot(xx(:,2), yy, 11);
ff = fit(xxmed, yymed, 'smoothingspline');
xnode = nodeunif(11, 0, 0.3);
scatter(xnode, ff(xnode), 150, [0.02, 0.26, 0.48], 'filled'); set(gca, 'ygrid', 'on');
hold on
ffs = griddedInterpolant(xnode, ff(xnode), 'pchip');
xxnodes = nodeunif(100, xnode(1), xnode(end));
plot(xxnodes, ffs(xxnodes), 'LineWidth', 4, 'Color', [0.02, 0.26, 0.48])
xlabel('payment to income ratio','Interpreter','latex');
title('B. PTI','Interpreter','latex');
box on
subplot(2, 2, 3)
[xxmed, yymed] = binned_plot(xx(:,3), yy, 11);
ff = fit(xxmed, yymed, 'smoothingspline');
xnode = nodeunif(11, xxmed(1), xxmed(end));
scatter(xnode, ff(xnode), 150, [0.02, 0.26, 0.48], 'filled'); set(gca, 'ygrid', 'on');
hold on
ffs = griddedInterpolant(xnode, ff(xnode), 'pchip');
xxnodes = nodeunif(100, xnode(1), xnode(end));
plot(xxnodes, ffs(xxnodes), 'LineWidth', 4, 'Color', [0.02, 0.26, 0.48])
xlabel('liquid assets to wealth','Interpreter','latex');
ylabel('value of liquidity','Interpreter','latex');
title('C. Liquid Assets to Wealth','Interpreter','latex');
box on
subplot(2, 2, 4)
[xxmed, yymed] = binned_plot(xx(:,4), yy, 11);
ff = fit(xxmed, yymed, 'smoothingspline');
xnode = nodeunif(11, xxmed(1), xxmed(end));
scatter(xnode, ff(xnode), 150, [0.02, 0.26, 0.48], 'filled'); set(gca, 'ygrid', 'on');
hold on
ffs = griddedInterpolant(xnode, ff(xnode), 'pchip');
xxnodes = nodeunif(100, xnode(1), xnode(end));
plot(xxnodes, ffs(xxnodes), 'LineWidth', 4, 'Color', [0.02, 0.26, 0.48])
xlabel('log income','Interpreter','latex');
title('D. Income','Interpreter','latex');
box on