********************************************************************** *** FIGURE A7 *** Impact of Trump Rallies on the Relative Probability of Stop With Respect to Whites: Event-study Results ********************************************************************** use "Data\stoplevel_data.dta", clear g n_stops = 1 foreach var of varlist black hispanic white api { replace `var' = `var'/100 } collapse (first) year dist* (sum) n_stops black hispanic white api, by(county_fips day_id subject_race) g stops = black + hispanic + white + api drop n_stops bysort day_id county_fips: egen n_stops = total(stops) drop if subject_race == 4 g prob_stop_race = black / n_stops if subject_race == 2 replace prob_stop_race = hispanic / n_stops if subject_race == 3 replace prob_stop_race = api / n_stops if subject_race == 1 rename black black_stops rename hispanic hispanic_stop rename api asian_stop g black = (subject_race == 2) g hispanic = (subject_race == 3) g asian = (subject_race == 1) local start = -105 local end = 105 local bin_l = 15 g TRUMP_0 = 0 forval ii = 1/9 { replace TRUMP_0 = 1 if dist_event`ii' == 0 } forval ii = 1(`bin_l')`end'{ local jj = `ii' + `bin_l' - 1 g TRUMP_POST_`ii'_`jj' = 0 forval ee = 1/9 { replace TRUMP_POST_`ii'_`jj' = 1 if (dist_event`ee' >= `ii' & dist_event`ee'<=`jj' & dist_event`ee'!=.) } } g TRUMP_POST_M`end' = 0 forval ii = 1/9 { replace TRUMP_POST_M`end' = 1 if (dist_event`ii' > `end' & dist_event`ii'!=.) } * forval ii = `start'(`bin_l')0 { if `ii' < -`bin_l' { local jj = abs(`ii') local zz = `jj' - `bin_l' + 1 g TRUMP_PRE_`jj'_`zz' = 0 forval ee = 1/9 { replace TRUMP_PRE_`jj'_`zz' = 1 if (dist_event`ee' <= -`zz' & dist_event`ee'>=-`jj' & dist_event`ee'!=.) } } } * local jj = abs(`start') g TRUMP_PRE_M`jj' = 0 forval ii = 1/9 { replace TRUMP_PRE_M`jj' = 1 if (dist_event`ii' < `start' & dist_event`ii'!=.) } reghdfe prob_stop_race 1.TRUMP_PRE_* 1.TRUMP_0 1.TRUMP_POST_* 1.TRUMP_PRE_*#1.black 1.TRUMP_0#1.black 1.TRUMP_POST_*#1.black 1.TRUMP_PRE_*#1.asian 1.TRUMP_0#1.asian 1.TRUMP_POST_*#1.asian [w=n_stops], a(i.county_fips##i.black i.county_fips##i.asian i.day_id##i.black i.day_id##i.asian i.county_fips#c.day_id i.black#i.county_fips#c.day_id i.asian#i.county_fips#c.day_id) cluster(county_fips day_id ) local temp = 1/`bin_l' local bin_neg = abs(`start' * `temp') local bin_pos = `end' * `temp' local range = round(`bin_neg' + `bin_pos' + 3) mat treat = J(`range',10,1) local Nrange = `range' - 2 forval pos = 1/`Nrange' { local lag = `start' + `bin_l'*`pos' - `bin_l' if `lag' > 0 { local lag = `start' + `bin_l'*`pos' - `bin_l' - `bin_l' + 1 } local num = abs(`lag') if `lag' == 0 { mat treat[`pos',1] = 0 mat treat[`pos',2] = _b[1.TRUMP_0] mat treat[`pos',3] = _b[1.TRUMP_0] + _se[1.TRUMP_0]*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`pos',4] = _b[1.TRUMP_0] - _se[1.TRUMP_0]*invttail(e(N),0.025) lincom _b[1.TRUMP_0#1.black] + _b[1.TRUMP_0] mat treat[`pos',5] = r(estimate) mat treat[`pos',6] = r(estimate) + r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`pos',7] = r(estimate) - r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) lincom _b[1.TRUMP_0#1.asian] + _b[1.TRUMP_0] mat treat[`pos',8] = r(estimate) mat treat[`pos',9] = r(estimate) + r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`pos',10] = r(estimate) - r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) } else if `lag' < -`bin_l' { local num2 = `num' - `bin_l' + 1 local num1 = - `num' mat treat[`pos',1] = `num1' mat treat[`pos',2] = _b[1.TRUMP_PRE_`num'_`num2'] mat treat[`pos',3] = _b[1.TRUMP_PRE_`num'_`num2'] + _se[1.TRUMP_PRE_`num'_`num2']*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`pos',4] = _b[1.TRUMP_PRE_`num'_`num2'] - _se[1.TRUMP_PRE_`num'_`num2']*invttail(e(N),0.025) lincom _b[1.TRUMP_PRE_`num'_`num2'#1.black] + _b[1.TRUMP_PRE_`num'_`num2'] mat treat[`pos',5] = r(estimate) mat treat[`pos',6] = r(estimate) + r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`pos',7] = r(estimate) - r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) lincom _b[1.TRUMP_PRE_`num'_`num2'#1.asian] + _b[1.TRUMP_PRE_`num'_`num2'] mat treat[`pos',8] = r(estimate) mat treat[`pos',9] = r(estimate) + r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`pos',10] = r(estimate) - r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) } else if `lag' == -`bin_l' { mat treat[`pos',1] = -`bin_l' mat treat[`pos',2] = 0 mat treat[`pos',3] = 0 mat treat[`pos',4] = 0 mat treat[`pos',5] = 0 mat treat[`pos',6] = 0 mat treat[`pos',7] = 0 mat treat[`pos',8] = 0 mat treat[`pos',9] = 0 mat treat[`pos',10] = 0 } else { di "**" di `lag' di `pos' local num2 = `num' + `bin_l' - 1 mat treat[`pos',1] = `num2' mat treat[`pos',2] = _b[1.TRUMP_POST_`num'_`num2'] mat treat[`pos',3] = _b[1.TRUMP_POST_`num'_`num2'] + _se[1.TRUMP_POST_`num'_`num2']*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`pos',4] = _b[1.TRUMP_POST_`num'_`num2'] - _se[1.TRUMP_POST_`num'_`num2']*invttail(e(N),0.025) lincom _b[1.TRUMP_POST_`num'_`num2'#1.black] + _b[1.TRUMP_POST_`num'_`num2'] mat treat[`pos',5] = r(estimate) mat treat[`pos',6] = r(estimate) + r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`pos',7] = r(estimate) - r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) lincom _b[1.TRUMP_POST_`num'_`num2'#1.asian] + _b[1.TRUMP_POST_`num'_`num2'] mat treat[`pos',8] = r(estimate) mat treat[`pos',9] = r(estimate) + r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`pos',10] = r(estimate) - r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) } } mat treat[`range'-1,1] = `start' - `bin_l' - 1 mat treat[`range'-1,2] = _b[1.TRUMP_PRE_M`jj'] mat treat[`range'-1,3] = _b[1.TRUMP_PRE_M`jj'] + _se[1.TRUMP_PRE_M`jj']*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`range'-1,4] = _b[1.TRUMP_PRE_M`jj'] - _se[1.TRUMP_PRE_M`jj']*invttail(e(N),0.025) lincom _b[1.TRUMP_PRE_M`jj'#1.black] + _b[1.TRUMP_PRE_M`jj'] mat treat[`range'-1,5] = r(estimate) mat treat[`range'-1,6] = r(estimate) + r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`range'-1,7] = r(estimate) - r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) lincom _b[1.TRUMP_PRE_M`jj'#1.asian] + _b[1.TRUMP_PRE_M`jj'] mat treat[`range'-1,8] = r(estimate) mat treat[`range'-1,9] = r(estimate) + r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`range'-1,10] = r(estimate) - r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`range',1] = `end' + `bin_l' + 1 mat treat[`range',2] = _b[1.TRUMP_POST_M`end'] mat treat[`range',3] = _b[1.TRUMP_POST_M`end'] + _se[1.TRUMP_POST_M`end']*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`range',4] = _b[1.TRUMP_POST_M`end'] - _se[1.TRUMP_POST_M`end']*invttail(e(N),0.025) lincom _b[1.TRUMP_POST_M`end'#1.black] + _b[1.TRUMP_POST_M`end'] mat treat[`range',5] = r(estimate) mat treat[`range',6] = r(estimate) + r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`range',7] = r(estimate) - r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) lincom _b[1.TRUMP_POST_M`end'#1.asian] + _b[1.TRUMP_POST_M`end'] mat treat[`range',8] = r(estimate) mat treat[`range',9] = r(estimate) + r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`range',10] = r(estimate) - r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) g yy = treat[_n,1] in 1/`range' g eff_hisp = treat[_n,2] in 1/`range' g eff_hisp_10 = treat[_n,3] in 1/`range' g eff_hisp_90 = treat[_n,4] in 1/`range' g eff_bl = treat[_n,5] in 1/`range' g eff_bl_10 = treat[_n,6] in 1/`range' g eff_bl_90 = treat[_n,7] in 1/`range' g eff_as = treat[_n,8] in 1/`range' g eff_as_10 = treat[_n,9] in 1/`range' g eff_as_90 = treat[_n,10] in 1/`range' sort yy *keep if yy>`start'-1 & yy<`end'+1 duplicates drop yy, force keep eff_* eff_*_10 eff_*_90 yy twoway (rcap eff_hisp_10 eff_hisp_90 yy if yy>`start' - `bin_l' - 1 & yy<`end' + `bin_l' + 1,lc(green) ) (scatter eff_hisp yy if yy>`start' - `bin_l' - 1 & yy<`end' + `bin_l' + 1,mc(green) msymbol(triangle)) (line eff_hisp yy if yy>`start' - `bin_l' - 1 & yy<`end' + `bin_l' + 1,lc(green) xline(0,lp(-)) yline(0,lp(-))) , graphregion(fcolor(white)) xtitle("Days From Trump") ytitle("Effect on Hispanics") legend(off) xlabel(-105(15)105) ylabel(-0.01(0.005)0.025) saving(hisp,replace) graph export "Results\FigureA7A.pdf", as(pdf) replace twoway (rcap eff_bl_10 eff_bl_90 yy if yy>`start' - `bin_l' - 1 & yy<`end' + `bin_l' + 1,lc(blue)) (scatter eff_bl yy if yy>`start' - `bin_l' - 1 & yy<`end' + `bin_l' + 1,mc(blue)) (line eff_bl yy if yy>`start' - `bin_l' - 1 & yy<`end' + `bin_l' + 1, lc(blue) xline(0,lp(-)) yline(0,lp(-))) , graphregion(fcolor(white)) xtitle("Days From Trump") ytitle("Effect on Blacks") xlabel(-105(15)105) legend(off) xlabel(-105(15)105) ylabel(-0.01(0.005)0.025) saving(black,replace) graph export "Results\FigureA7B.pdf", as(pdf) replace twoway (rcap eff_as_10 eff_as_90 yy if yy>`start' - `bin_l' - 1 & yy<`end' + `bin_l' + 1,lc(red)) (scatter eff_as yy if yy>`start' - `bin_l' - 1 & yy<`end' + `bin_l' + 1,mc(red)) (line eff_as yy if yy>`start' - `bin_l' - 1 & yy<`end' + `bin_l' + 1, lc(red) xline(0,lp(-)) yline(0,lp(-))) , graphregion(fcolor(white)) xtitle("Days From Trump") ytitle("Effect on APIs") legend(off) xlabel(-105(15)105) ylabel(-0.01(0.005)0.025) saving(asian,replace) graph export "Results\FigureA7C.pdf", as(pdf) replace **************************************************************************************************************************************** use "Data\stoplevel_data.dta", clear g n_stops = 1 foreach var of varlist black hispanic white api { replace `var' = `var'/100 } collapse (first) year dist* (sum) n_stops black hispanic white api, by(county_fips day_id subject_race) g stops = black + hispanic + white + api drop n_stops bysort day_id county_fips: egen n_stops = total(stops) drop if subject_race == 4 g prob_stop_race = black / n_stops if subject_race == 2 replace prob_stop_race = hispanic / n_stops if subject_race == 3 replace prob_stop_race = api / n_stops if subject_race == 1 rename black black_stops rename hispanic hispanic_stop rename api asian_stop g black = (subject_race == 2) g hispanic = (subject_race == 3) g asian = (subject_race == 1) local start = -105 local end = 105 local bin_l = 15 g TRUMP_0 = 0 forval ii = 1/9 { replace TRUMP_0 = 1 if dist_event`ii' == 0 } forval ii = 1(`bin_l')`end'{ local jj = `ii' + `bin_l' - 1 g TRUMP_POST_`ii'_`jj' = 0 forval ee = 1/9 { replace TRUMP_POST_`ii'_`jj' = 1 if (dist_event`ee' >= `ii' & dist_event`ee'<=`jj' & dist_event`ee'!=.) } } g TRUMP_POST_M`end' = 0 forval ii = 1/9 { replace TRUMP_POST_M`end' = 1 if (dist_event`ii' > `end' & dist_event`ii'!=.) } * forval ii = `start'(`bin_l')0 { if `ii' < -`bin_l' { local jj = abs(`ii') local zz = `jj' - `bin_l' + 1 g TRUMP_PRE_`jj'_`zz' = 0 forval ee = 1/9 { replace TRUMP_PRE_`jj'_`zz' = 1 if (dist_event`ee' <= -`zz' & dist_event`ee'>=-`jj' & dist_event`ee'!=.) } } } * local jj = abs(`start') g TRUMP_PRE_M`jj' = 0 forval ii = 1/9 { replace TRUMP_PRE_M`jj' = 1 if (dist_event`ii' < `start' & dist_event`ii'!=.) } reghdfe prob_stop_race 1.TRUMP_PRE_* 1.TRUMP_0 1.TRUMP_POST_* 1.TRUMP_PRE_*#1.black 1.TRUMP_0#1.black 1.TRUMP_POST_*#1.black 1.TRUMP_PRE_*#1.asian 1.TRUMP_0#1.asian 1.TRUMP_POST_*#1.asian [w=n_stops], a(i.county_fips##i.black i.county_fips##i.asian i.day_id##i.black i.day_id##i.asian) cluster(county_fips day_id) local temp = 1/`bin_l' local bin_neg = abs(`start' * `temp') local bin_pos = `end' * `temp' local range = round(`bin_neg' + `bin_pos' + 3) mat treat = J(`range',10,1) local Nrange = `range' - 2 forval pos = 1/`Nrange' { local lag = `start' + `bin_l'*`pos' - `bin_l' if `lag' > 0 { local lag = `start' + `bin_l'*`pos' - `bin_l' - `bin_l' + 1 } local num = abs(`lag') if `lag' == 0 { mat treat[`pos',1] = 0 mat treat[`pos',2] = _b[1.TRUMP_0] mat treat[`pos',3] = _b[1.TRUMP_0] + _se[1.TRUMP_0]*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`pos',4] = _b[1.TRUMP_0] - _se[1.TRUMP_0]*invttail(e(N),0.025) lincom _b[1.TRUMP_0#1.black] + _b[1.TRUMP_0] mat treat[`pos',5] = r(estimate) mat treat[`pos',6] = r(estimate) + r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`pos',7] = r(estimate) - r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) lincom _b[1.TRUMP_0#1.asian] + _b[1.TRUMP_0] mat treat[`pos',8] = r(estimate) mat treat[`pos',9] = r(estimate) + r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`pos',10] = r(estimate) - r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) } else if `lag' < -`bin_l' { local num2 = `num' - `bin_l' + 1 local num1 = - `num' mat treat[`pos',1] = `num1' mat treat[`pos',2] = _b[1.TRUMP_PRE_`num'_`num2'] mat treat[`pos',3] = _b[1.TRUMP_PRE_`num'_`num2'] + _se[1.TRUMP_PRE_`num'_`num2']*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`pos',4] = _b[1.TRUMP_PRE_`num'_`num2'] - _se[1.TRUMP_PRE_`num'_`num2']*invttail(e(N),0.025) lincom _b[1.TRUMP_PRE_`num'_`num2'#1.black] + _b[1.TRUMP_PRE_`num'_`num2'] mat treat[`pos',5] = r(estimate) mat treat[`pos',6] = r(estimate) + r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`pos',7] = r(estimate) - r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) lincom _b[1.TRUMP_PRE_`num'_`num2'#1.asian] + _b[1.TRUMP_PRE_`num'_`num2'] mat treat[`pos',8] = r(estimate) mat treat[`pos',9] = r(estimate) + r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`pos',10] = r(estimate) - r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) } else if `lag' == -`bin_l' { mat treat[`pos',1] = -`bin_l' mat treat[`pos',2] = 0 mat treat[`pos',3] = 0 mat treat[`pos',4] = 0 mat treat[`pos',5] = 0 mat treat[`pos',6] = 0 mat treat[`pos',7] = 0 mat treat[`pos',8] = 0 mat treat[`pos',9] = 0 mat treat[`pos',10] = 0 } else { di "**" di `lag' di `pos' local num2 = `num' + `bin_l' - 1 mat treat[`pos',1] = `num2' mat treat[`pos',2] = _b[1.TRUMP_POST_`num'_`num2'] mat treat[`pos',3] = _b[1.TRUMP_POST_`num'_`num2'] + _se[1.TRUMP_POST_`num'_`num2']*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`pos',4] = _b[1.TRUMP_POST_`num'_`num2'] - _se[1.TRUMP_POST_`num'_`num2']*invttail(e(N),0.025) lincom _b[1.TRUMP_POST_`num'_`num2'#1.black] + _b[1.TRUMP_POST_`num'_`num2'] mat treat[`pos',5] = r(estimate) mat treat[`pos',6] = r(estimate) + r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`pos',7] = r(estimate) - r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) lincom _b[1.TRUMP_POST_`num'_`num2'#1.asian] + _b[1.TRUMP_POST_`num'_`num2'] mat treat[`pos',8] = r(estimate) mat treat[`pos',9] = r(estimate) + r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`pos',10] = r(estimate) - r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) } } mat treat[`range'-1,1] = `start' - `bin_l' - 1 mat treat[`range'-1,2] = _b[1.TRUMP_PRE_M`jj'] mat treat[`range'-1,3] = _b[1.TRUMP_PRE_M`jj'] + _se[1.TRUMP_PRE_M`jj']*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`range'-1,4] = _b[1.TRUMP_PRE_M`jj'] - _se[1.TRUMP_PRE_M`jj']*invttail(e(N),0.025) lincom _b[1.TRUMP_PRE_M`jj'#1.black] + _b[1.TRUMP_PRE_M`jj'] mat treat[`range'-1,5] = r(estimate) mat treat[`range'-1,6] = r(estimate) + r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`range'-1,7] = r(estimate) - r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) lincom _b[1.TRUMP_PRE_M`jj'#1.asian] + _b[1.TRUMP_PRE_M`jj'] mat treat[`range'-1,8] = r(estimate) mat treat[`range'-1,9] = r(estimate) + r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`range'-1,10] = r(estimate) - r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`range',1] = `end' + `bin_l' + 1 mat treat[`range',2] = _b[1.TRUMP_POST_M`end'] mat treat[`range',3] = _b[1.TRUMP_POST_M`end'] + _se[1.TRUMP_POST_M`end']*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`range',4] = _b[1.TRUMP_POST_M`end'] - _se[1.TRUMP_POST_M`end']*invttail(e(N),0.025) lincom _b[1.TRUMP_POST_M`end'#1.black] + _b[1.TRUMP_POST_M`end'] mat treat[`range',5] = r(estimate) mat treat[`range',6] = r(estimate) + r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`range',7] = r(estimate) - r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) lincom _b[1.TRUMP_POST_M`end'#1.asian] + _b[1.TRUMP_POST_M`end'] mat treat[`range',8] = r(estimate) mat treat[`range',9] = r(estimate) + r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) mat treat[`range',10] = r(estimate) - r(se)*invttail(e(N),0.025) g yy = treat[_n,1] in 1/`range' g eff_hisp = treat[_n,2] in 1/`range' g eff_hisp_10 = treat[_n,3] in 1/`range' g eff_hisp_90 = treat[_n,4] in 1/`range' g eff_bl = treat[_n,5] in 1/`range' g eff_bl_10 = treat[_n,6] in 1/`range' g eff_bl_90 = treat[_n,7] in 1/`range' g eff_as = treat[_n,8] in 1/`range' g eff_as_10 = treat[_n,9] in 1/`range' g eff_as_90 = treat[_n,10] in 1/`range' sort yy *keep if yy>`start'-1 & yy<`end'+1 duplicates drop yy, force keep eff_* eff_*_10 eff_*_90 yy twoway (rcap eff_hisp_10 eff_hisp_90 yy if yy>`start' - `bin_l' - 1 & yy<`end' + `bin_l' + 1,lc(green) ) (scatter eff_hisp yy if yy>`start' - `bin_l' - 1 & yy<`end' + `bin_l' + 1,mc(green) msymbol(triangle)) (line eff_hisp yy if yy>`start' - `bin_l' - 1 & yy<`end' + `bin_l' + 1,lc(green) xline(0,lp(-)) yline(0,lp(-))) , graphregion(fcolor(white)) xtitle("Days From Trump") ytitle("Effect on Hispanics") legend(off) xlabel(-105(15)105) ylabel(-0.01(0.005)0.025) saving(hisp,replace) graph export "Results\FigureA7D.pdf", as(pdf) replace twoway (rcap eff_bl_10 eff_bl_90 yy if yy>`start' - `bin_l' - 1 & yy<`end' + `bin_l' + 1,lc(blue)) (scatter eff_bl yy if yy>`start' - `bin_l' - 1 & yy<`end' + `bin_l' + 1,mc(blue)) (line eff_bl yy if yy>`start' - `bin_l' - 1 & yy<`end' + `bin_l' + 1, lc(blue) xline(0,lp(-)) yline(0,lp(-))) , graphregion(fcolor(white)) xtitle("Days From Trump") ytitle("Effect on Blacks") xlabel(-105(15)105) legend(off) xlabel(-105(15)105) ylabel(-0.01(0.005)0.025) saving(black,replace) graph export "Results\FigureA7E.pdf", as(pdf) replace twoway (rcap eff_as_10 eff_as_90 yy if yy>`start' - `bin_l' - 1 & yy<`end' + `bin_l' + 1,lc(red)) (scatter eff_as yy if yy>`start' - `bin_l' - 1 & yy<`end' + `bin_l' + 1,mc(red)) (line eff_as yy if yy>`start' - `bin_l' - 1 & yy<`end' + `bin_l' + 1, lc(red) xline(0,lp(-)) yline(0,lp(-))) , graphregion(fcolor(white)) xtitle("Days From Trump") ytitle("Effect on APIs") legend(off) xlabel(-105(15)105) ylabel(-0.01(0.005)0.025) saving(asian,replace) graph export "Results\FigureA7F.pdf", as(pdf) replace