function [yt,xt]=simul(x0,shocks,nyss,nxss,eta,derivs,approx,pruning,varargin) % [yt,xt]=simul(x0,shocks,nyss,nxss,eta,derivs,approx,pruning) simulates % the model from the initial state x0. shocks is a matrix with n_e rows % and T columns, where n_e is the number of shocks (corresponds to the % columns of eta), and T is the length of the simulation. The function % returns yt and xt for T+1 periods. The first period is the initial state % and the rest T periods correspond to the shocks. pruning=0 is a simple % simulation without pruning. pruning=1 is a pruned simulation. The % pruning algorithm follows Andreasen, Fernandez-Villaverde and % Rubio-Ramirez (2013) "The Pruned State-Space System for Non-Linear DSGE Models: % Theory and Empirical Applications". % % © Copyright, Oren Levintal, June 13, 2016. if ~isempty(varargin) model=varargin{1}; if approx>=2 tempmat=model.UW.U2*model.UW.W2*model.UW.W2'*model.UW.U2'; derivsc.gxx=sparse(derivs.gxx)*tempmat; derivsc.hxx=sparse(derivs.hxx)*tempmat; end if approx>=3 tempmat=model.UW.U3*model.UW.W3*model.UW.W3'*model.UW.U3'; derivsc.gxxx=sparse(derivs.gxxx)*tempmat; derivsc.hxxx=sparse(derivs.hxxx)*tempmat; end if approx>=4 tempmat=model.UW.U4*model.UW.W4*model.UW.W4'*model.UW.U4'; derivsc.gxxxx=sparse(derivs.gxxxx)*tempmat; derivsc.hxxxx=sparse(derivs.hxxxx)*tempmat; end if approx>=5 tempmat=model.UW.U5*model.UW.W5*model.UW.W5'*model.UW.U5'; derivsc.gxxxxx=sparse(derivs.gxxxxx)*tempmat; derivsc.hxxxxx=sparse(derivs.hxxxxx)*tempmat; end end if approx>=2 n_x=length(nxss)+1; derivs.gxx=reshape(derivs.gxx,[],n_x^2); derivs.hxx=reshape(derivs.hxx,[],n_x^2); end if approx>=3 derivs.gxxx=reshape(derivs.gxxx,[],n_x^3); derivs.hxxx=reshape(derivs.hxxx,[],n_x^3); end if approx>=4 derivs.gxxxx=reshape(derivs.gxxxx,[],n_x^4); derivs.hxxxx=reshape(derivs.hxxxx,[],n_x^4); end if approx>=5 derivs.gxxxxx=reshape(derivs.gxxxxx,[],n_x^5); derivs.hxxxxx=reshape(derivs.hxxxxx,[],n_x^5); end T=size(shocks,2); n_y=size(derivs.gx,1); n_x=size(derivs.hx,1); n_e=size(shocks,1); shocks=[zeros(n_e,1),shocks,zeros(n_e,1)]; if pruning==0 yt=zeros(n_y,T+2); xt=zeros(n_x,T+2); xt(:,1)=x0; for t=1:T+1 nx=xt(:,t); if isempty(varargin) [g,h]=policy( nx,nyss,nxss,derivs,approx ); else [g,h]=policy( nx,nyss,nxss,derivs,approx,derivsc ); end yt(:,t)=g; xt(:,t+1)=h+eta*shocks(:,t+1); end xt=xt(:,1:T+1); yt=yt(:,1:T+1); elseif pruning==1 xt_f=zeros(n_x+1,T+2); yt=zeros(n_y,T+2); if approx>=2 xt_s=zeros(n_x+1,T+2); end if approx>=3 xt_rd=zeros(n_x+1,T+2); end if approx>=4 xt_4th=zeros(n_x+1,T+2); end if approx>=5 xt_5th=zeros(n_x+1,T+2); end xt_f(1:end-1,1)=x0-nxss; xt_f(end,:)=1; for t=1:T+1 x_f=xt_f(:,t); xt_f(1:end-1,t+1)=derivs.hx*x_f+eta*shocks(:,t+1); if approx>=2 x_s=xt_s(:,t); x_f2=kron(x_f,x_f); xt_s(1:end-1,t+1)=derivs.hx*x_s+derivs.hxx*x_f2/2; end if approx>=3 x_rd=xt_rd(:,t); x_f3=kron(x_f2,x_f); x_f_x_s=kron(x_f,x_s); xt_rd(1:end-1,t+1)=derivs.hx*x_rd+derivs.hxx*(2*x_f_x_s)/2+derivs.hxxx*x_f3/6; end if approx>=4 x_4th=xt_4th(:,t); x_f4=kron(x_f3,x_f); x_f2_x_s=kron(x_f,x_f_x_s); x_s2=kron(x_s,x_s); x_f_x_rd=kron(x_f,x_rd); xt_4th(1:end-1,t+1)=derivs.hx*x_4th+derivs.hxx*(2*x_f_x_rd+x_s2)/2 ... +derivs.hxxx*(3*x_f2_x_s)/6 ... +derivs.hxxxx*x_f4/24; end if approx>=5 x_5th=xt_5th(:,t); x_f5=kron(x_f4,x_f); x_f3_x_s=kron(x_f,x_f2_x_s); x_f_x_s2=kron(x_f,x_s2); x_f2_x_rd=kron(x_f,x_f_x_rd); x_s_x_rd=kron(x_s,x_rd); x_f_x_4th=kron(x_f,x_4th); xt_5th(1:end-1,t+1)=derivs.hx*x_5th+derivs.hxx*(2*x_f_x_4th+2*x_s_x_rd)/2 ... +derivs.hxxx*(3*x_f2_x_rd+3*x_f_x_s2)/6 ... +derivs.hxxxx*(4*x_f3_x_s)/24 ... +derivs.hxxxxx*x_f5/120; end if approx==1 yt(:,t)=derivs.gx*(x_f); elseif approx==2 yt(:,t)=derivs.gx*(x_f+x_s)+derivs.gxx*(x_f2)/2; elseif approx==3 yt(:,t)=derivs.gx*(x_f+x_s+x_rd)+derivs.gxx*(x_f2+2*x_f_x_s)/2 ... +derivs.gxxx*(x_f3)/6; elseif approx==4 yt(:,t)=derivs.gx*(x_f+x_s+x_rd+x_4th)+derivs.gxx*(x_f2+2*x_f_x_s+2*x_f_x_rd+x_s2)/2 ... +derivs.gxxx*(x_f3+3*x_f2_x_s)/6 ... +derivs.gxxxx*x_f4/24; elseif approx==5 yt(:,t)=derivs.gx*(x_f+x_s+x_rd+x_4th+x_5th)+derivs.gxx*(x_f2+2*x_f_x_s+2*x_f_x_rd+2*x_f_x_4th+x_s2+2*x_s_x_rd)/2 ... +derivs.gxxx*(x_f3+3*x_f2_x_s+3*x_f2_x_rd+3*x_f_x_s2)/6 ... +derivs.gxxxx*(x_f4+4*x_f3_x_s)/24 ... +derivs.gxxxxx*x_f5/120; end end yt=yt(:,1:T+1); xt=xt_f(:,1:T+1); if approx>=2 xt=xt+xt_s(:,1:T+1); end if approx>=3 xt=xt+xt_rd(:,1:T+1); end if approx>=4 xt=xt+xt_4th(:,1:T+1); end if approx>=5 xt=xt+xt_5th(:,1:T+1); end yt=yt+repmat(nyss,1,T+1); xt=xt(1:end-1,:)+repmat(nxss,1,T+1); end