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@patrickluberus @basedlemahieu 1 absolutely 2 completely hinges upon “if”, and this debate seems to always assume bitcoin is not living breathing and evolving into an improved organism over time 3 100% distribution mechanism paired with positive externalities of clean energy incentives
@benhumbleknow @ben11kehoe @kareem_carr sounds a lot like @nntaleb's "fat tony" and the double headed coin. if the coin comes up heads 100 times in a row, how can it possibly be a (the prior)?
@mobcat_ @3kliksphilip "coin flip: heads, determined by flip" 😄
@beattheoddsbets @roiguy123 what if i changed the odds of landing on heads on a from +110 to -110. $11 profit on one, $9.09 profit on the other. not even $2, but the ev goes from 5% on +110 to -4.55% on -110.
@tjgawlik @cfo_mm problem is that reality isn’t probabilistic - ev of flip is 50c, but if you can only flip once you end up with either 0 or $1
flipping: tighter analysis and the many-party case. (arxiv:2104.08820v2 [https://t.co/3s9gpijy42] updated) https://t.co/xm5oivdysx
@mouneer @ref_abanose what is fair? the is the one the follows my prediction 😂😂😂
my first boyfriend, s and i dated for a year n 10 mnths. he was really cute but took advantage of dat n wanted to sweep the streets. i dumped his ass and he came guilt triping me cos he was 4 years older dan me. but i payed him in by attaching his 📱 no on my fb profile https://t.co/nwtpwyzwws
@pareinoia absolutely correct! i still wonder about a though. https://t.co/tpoupvlyfw https://t.co/w6saxx5dw3
@crb0712 @worf_rat @thelaurenchen sure, just gotta be careful with how we interpret data/draw conclusions from it. it's possible to have a 100 year flood (level of flooding that happens once every 100 years) occur twice in 5 years. a could get heads 10 times in a row, sometimes stats are funky like that
@sharoz for completeness sake: the chance you throw 51 with a is rather large, won't shake your trust, but what about 60? the chance you throw 60 or more with a is about 3%. so you have 3% chance of calling the coin unfair while it is fair. is that an acceptable risk?
simpler example - who is more likely to land heads? 1 cointoss of a coin that always lands heads 2 cointosses of a . the xheads is the same here
@borninvestor depends if it is a .
@aspiringdatasc1 coin toss exhibits a binomial distribution. so yes if you have a it would be binomial only
@avalanche_space @dogerunethos @chainlink @avalancheavax good decision! this will result in a vrf and provably for its minters.
@matthewqueen84 no there is no uncertainty in the probability of outcomes of a flip uncertainties in weather prediction are always accompanied by secondary uncertainties (eg, model biases as a function of the model, forecast location, initial conditions etc etc)
@tomayates well the virus probably doesn't toss a to decide what to have at this genomic position (but there are also countervailing things that could affect the p-value, so i'm not necessarily claiming that this is too high)
let x be the number of heads obtained in 40 independent tosses of a . then x is a binomial random variable with a.n = 40, p = 0.5 b.n = 0.5, p = 40 c.n = 40, p = 0 d.n = 100, p = 0 ans a #economics #mba
and i didn’t cheat! i have video evidence of a flip https://t.co/vkdr5vfzvr
@scottadamssays you & i are in a coin-toss… i flip the coin, catch it, slap it on my forearm, lift my hand just enough for me to see it, declare myself the winner & refuse to let you see it… is that a -toss? you can’t prove i lied, but isn’t my refusal to let you see it unfair?
@scoolchoice422 @reedyoung @godawful_83ist @oddziggy @rainythorsday @iamatheistgirl apparently you don’t understand probability as can be demonstrated by a few high school level questions: can a 1:♾️ event happen? can it happen more than once consecutively? at what point must a series of flips come up tails if the first result was heads?
@cpita3 …or, if you prefer p (getting 6 heads in 7 tosses of a ) = 5.5% you would, of course, want to see more coin flips, just to be sure. but after 7 tries, you’d already be wondering it was really a .
i tossed a twice and got two heads. using the conditional probability, head probability of next toss is .75.
@therealjohnguy @ughfine5757 @richard_normal how about a flip
perfect kevin. i’ll go with physical indeterminacy. or always keep a handy when in doubt ;-) @rwalker1501 @kordinglab
@mohammadibnabd6 you'd just reject the null hypothesis of "" actually.
@starsports_bet @lordoakwell @simonnott "if a coin is spun 14 times and it comes out heads every times... you should start thinking about betting on tails". this is the opposite of how it works. in real life nobody can stipulate it's a . it's a bayesian coin. after 15 heads you should bet heads.
🧵random $spy #trading update ( to enter long (heads), short (tails) at the close. commission included. year-to-date (june 7, 2022) 1. long only. 18.6% of random #traders have a gain. https://t.co/gawmzdwu0g
frequentist: i tossed a 100 times and got 100 heads. the probability of the head is still 0.5.
@nntaleb elon has repeatedly overcome extreme adversity and solved very difficult problems. i.e., after multiple trials, he has scored anomalously high, indicating high bias/low variance for success. the probability this is luck is like flipping 50 heads in a row with a .
lukewarm cryptography take: rejection sampling is (almost) never the answer. say we have a that we can flip as often as we like and want to choose a number uniformly at random from the set {0, 1, 2}. (1/n)
is it possible to construct a toss function f? if yes, give an explicit construction; if no, give a proof that it's impossible. note: so(3) has the borel sigma algebra and f is measurable, so averages over balls are well-defined.
@canteringclark classic heads vs tails coin flip psychology. after 9 heads we believe odds owe us a tail, this is fallacy “a flipped 5 times results in heads each time. what's the probability of the next flip being tails? exactly...50% [coin flips have no bearing on future flips]”
@wolf_financial rational brain says ev of the coin flip is $500mm loss aversion says losing $1mm guaranteed would sting. am i able to haggle in this hypothetical? $10mm and everyones better off. also assume it's ? have to take the flip
@viviansfenster @gauntlettconnor because "" was part of the hypothesis, and that means heads and tails are mutually exclusive, equally likely, exhaustive outcomes?
as an additional question, what changes if instead of having 100 tosses of a , you do perfect shuffles of a deck with 50 red and 50 black cards instead?
problem for the day: toss a 100 times. a "streak" is a maximal consecutive sequence of the same toss, either heads or tails. (it's a sequence which is not strictly contained in any bigger such sequence) what's the exact distribution of the number of streaks you get?
@gauntlettconnor i am skeptical about statement 2. you can't figure out the probability that a toss will yield heads? 🤨
@stannewman20 @rossf500 @richard0641 if it’s a you can predict that the probability that it will land on one side will tend towards 50% within a decreasing margin of error as you increase the number of trails. that’s a trivial calculation. if it not a you can calculate the bias similarly.
@fuffyyyyyyy @howethlewis for example, if you flip a , it will come up as heads or tails. you wouldn’t say you have a rational belief based on that, that the result of the coin being flipped would be heads.
@alexbryant_ @morallawwithin i offer you a choice between two lotteries: coin, where i flip a and pay you $1 if heads and $0 if tails, and dice, where i flip a 6-sided die and pay you $1 if it lands on a 6 and $0 otherwise. one ought to choose coin, because the expected value (ev) is higher.
@ghostbanned7 @tonyalligatour @faxing__berlin @dergigi @bennetttomlin 1. whatever i do not really mind about this. this is about distribution. 2. i'm talking about current network effect compared to other cryptos. tell me how your crypto has this. gold and fiat i already explained before so it's stupid to repeat again.
@eggresurrect @dartmultimedia @dudeareshowerin @theomniliberal i see, you literally don't know what +ev means. you can obviously have one shot bets which are +ev. if i offer you the following: flip a , heads you give me $5, tails i give you $500. i will never offer this bet again, so you can't make money over time. it's still +ev...
you are flipping a . what's more probable? 10 heads in a row? (hhhhhhhhhh) or 1 head and 1 tail alternating 5 times (hththththt)? #probability
@alanbwt @iam_luminal at least cardano has a pretty distribution without vcs, fundations or other insiders.
webster dictionary updated definition of '': a sequence of independent bernoulli trials with probability 1/2 of success on each trial is metaphorically called a . alternative definition: the outcome of a @rafaelnadal vs @djokernole #tennis match @rolandgarros
cryptotoday the free tracking platform!!! no more paying to get your coin listed!!! https://t.co/trgvddhaqw
@zsk fair enough - is there a link where this stat is mentioned by the source? was not meaning to be petty, i just thought this would be a great maths lesson subject. e.g. you're not "sure" to get a tail when you flip a 1 million times.
@dgurdasani1 as a very first approximation: say 50% of all children were infection-induced seropositive at the time of the pediatric hepatitis cases. if you flipped a 26 times, you’d be surprised to get 19 heads and 7 tails. p(19 heads in 26 flips) = 1% [binomial probability]
@nchiatula @praisegeorge that's why in proper risk mgmt, it isn't about chances or probability but abt consequences. chances fool us. it doesn't see long term & all the intricacies. but when we think in terms of consequences, whether short/long term, we wld be wiser. nigerians think life is a .
#66daysofdata season 2⃣ w/ @kenjee_ds day 0⃣7⃣ 2⃣ #datascience bookcamp by leonard apeltsin: -> currently on section 3 -> learned how to plot simulated _flip frequencies. https://t.co/ouyszpq4dc
@scrubquotesx from wikipedia's gambler fallacy: "if a is flipped 21 times, the probability of 21 heads is 1 in 2,097,152. the probability of flipping a head after having already flipped 20 heads in a row is 1/2."
q: what is the *expected* number of flips one must make before seeing a run of 7 heads in a row? (, no trickery) anyone? #probability #bets #maths
hello anon, please review my answer baka mali eh thanks. -the number of heads in three tosses of a can assume integer values of 0, 1, 2, and 3, with probabilities of 1/8, 3/8, 3/8, and 1/8 respectively. wait solve ko nalang yang dalawa https://t.co/a4a0jnqdte
@19mindy @ambreen_sania @14shreesha @phattadhol if you have a and you toss it 6 times, what is the probability of getting 3 heads in a row?
@blockchainchick when we flip a 8 times and get 8 tails, the probability of getting another tail on the next flip is: . . , . . . . . 50%
@ovollmer @dirtydozeneira absolutely, but i'd give a just to take a pic with this cool lady by my side. my kind of hero. ps- all proceeds to ua, of course. https://t.co/ae7ri7cour
did i just create an ln coin flip telegram bot for fun because i enjoyed the @blckjckbot so much? yes i did. provably flip with %0.5 house edge. take my sats: https://t.co/cnc0dvnob4
1. you have a , flipping the coin has a 50% chance of showing a head. what is the probability of getting all heads when flipped 10 times?
the s&p just printed a bullish & rare 'demark' buy signal https://t.co/l4kjswlvfr i need to read this. but, one of greatest technical indicators? it is much closer to flipping a , maybe a bit > 50/50 odds?
@davidsirota perhaps your initials should be be fc for ''.
-the payoff scheme( $2 for heads, $1 loss for tails) suggests 2-to-1 odds. as we will be using a , tosses will be 1-to-1. so we recognize something the market doesn't: heads will show up more often than the payoff scheme suggests
@fakegingerbitch ask them if a toss is an ergodic process and do not hire regardless of the answer.
the possible outcomes are not the possible outcomes. the possible outcomes also do not remain static over time. grow your risk management competency beyond and dice. are you in anywhere in west africa, here's the opportunity to upskill &retool: https://t.co/4rij8nrmmn https://t.co/x8iqyxjyqq
i developed a private principle which has been useful in life. it says: “a can’t always land on its side, seemingly by accident, without constant, deliberately cryptic active management by others unseen.” this uap coin always seems to land on its side.
@_lucidentropy @ksidiii the toss is an ergodic process. wealth, an observable, or random variable, derived from this process, may not be an ergodic process. there are major misconceptions on this subject due to some papers in the past confusing the two, or not making the distinction clear.
@arthurcdent i'm not sure if the question is rhetorical or real 😬, anyway, getting all heads is 1/2 * 1/2 = 0.25 in the 2 flips scenario, and (1/2)^20 for the 20 flips. assuming a . similarly we can calculate for half flips heads, 2choose1 / 2*2 which is 0.5 for 2 flips and ...
@0xstaxro @hunting_artemis @jeliaz_7 flips are statistically independent from one another it's only when you string results ("and") where probability starts to skew
@arthurcdent @dan_abramov think of it terms of coin tosses. say i’m tossing a and report 75% heads. i’m much more likely to have gotten 3/4 than 75/100. the larger the sample size is the more i’ll get pushed towards the normal.
@sdhillon07 a coin toss with a non “fair” coin haha
4/n. for a simpler analogy, think about flipping a twice. there's a 50-50 chance that it will be heads or tails. if you roll the coin twice, you'd expect to get 1 heads and 1 tails. but we know from real life that that doesn't happen.
- gambler's fallacy: if a shows five heads in a row, people put more probabilty on tails next as "tails are due" -good companies make good investments (7/15)
@niantichelp is there any chance to switch my 70 raid passes to remote raid passes using some sort of a based ratio?
💡 #pow coins like $btc, $kda, $flux, etc with distribution are a wise solution. tokens and #pos coins are all pyramid scheme trash. 👇👇👇
@swaaalla @gregzaj1 @tbonehodl it’s just probability. if we have no other info except time since last block, the answer for when the next block is 10 minutes. doesn’t matter if it just hit or been 1hr same thing as flip a 5 times, 5 times heads, what’s the probability of the 6th flip being heads?
@dougpolkvids @ryanfeepoker sounds like a
@monetsupply to be fair, coin 10y bond trading at 60c is completely irrational considering the pile of cash they are sitting on. it’s yielding 14% yoy - pretty good opp i’d say
@drorpoleg @ft to be market cap did very similar. perhaps those are the agreed points on y axis for tether. https://t.co/jqvy3ubxqi
@seamusblackley ah, understood. so yeah, similar indeed although the shannon entropy does have the (non-si) unit bits (or dits in decimal). but the idea is a bit different. you want to give "surprise" a measure. a has 1 bit entropy, a 6-sided fair die 3 bit, etc. 🤔
@ian_a_boyd @cody_orr @travis_roeder you all might be arguing past each other. if i have truly independent events--flipping a --then heads on flip one does not make tails more likely on flip two. if you argue, "the luck you had last year shows us you were really an 8-4 team, not 11-1," 1/2
@varunpa41144119 @veg_chicken69 @ivictorjunior @vijaimantrimf good to know that you are willing to learn. both outcomes are not with 50% probability. that’s assumption of your is wrong here. it’s not like a . this situation is like a biased coin. i hope you will pick it up from here and understand it. cheers!
@richontech to be fair, coin sort of did this when it launched almost a decade ago.
@haro_ca_ your flips have an expected correlation of -0.25 and your coin's bias is about 0.42 def detectable as not a ...human alert, human alert https://t.co/hmncmjlkcy
@yyarmar you're close to being fair with respect to flips, but your flips are predictable, favouring longer streaks of heads or tails than one would expect from a
hey twitter, i have a game we can play: how well do you think you could simulate a sequence of flips from a ? reply to this tweet with a sequence of at least 20 flips (using h and t to mean heads and tails, for e.g. httthtththhthhthtttt) and i will tell you how you did
we have moved from a world of risk to a world of uncertainty. from thin-tail risk to fat-tails. we can't continue to use the tools we leveraged for simple fair-coin decision situations also for complex cloudy decision situations. just upskill &retool: https://t.co/4rij8nrmmn https://t.co/dg0ypodw9c
every has twos sides, a head and a tail. the nms might have done some good harm to us in many ways. but don’t reverse some of the progress it made by reversing their gains. don’t be a repeal-and-replace-donald-trump.
@sanleb @vprasadmdmph if you keep flipping a coin and getting heads, you have to ask if it's a
@faraz84 this version of pascal's triangle is a depiction of flipping a coin and all of the possible outcomes. all coins start out in the same position, with zero flips. then it can either flip to a head (left) or a tail (right). a "" with equal flips gets you this randomness. https://t.co/nxbe05rbun
@uberfacts 3) p_n = n! = 52! = 80658175170943878571660636856403766975289505440883277824000000000000. now, think of a toss. here, the event a is getting heads. the probability of getting heads twice is the product of the probability of event a because they are independent events.
@ilovemypets56 either an indy record shop, who should pay you if reputable, or if you can be bothered ebay - good luck!
@ericlinuskaplan e.g., the ev of 'flip a and get $6 if it comes up heads' is the same as 'flip a and get $3 regardless of the flip's outcome'. ea then adds that it's twice as good to save 200 people as it is to save 100 people.
status is a toss as of 1pm et.
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first program for a050233: a(n) is the number of n-tosses having a run of 5 or more heads for a (i.e., probability is...
@triggerman1976 @jacksonwheat1 jackson: random sequences outperformed the originals triggerman: you can't make something intentionally random me: coin flips? triggerman: some coins are rigged a flip is a random process that can be intentionally chosen. can you please just admit that?
an ordinary die and a is thrown together show the possible outcomes on the possibility space diag https://t.co/ctxcqien8f
@bradweatherbie yeah—for this anecdote, let’s assume truly tosses. i wouldn’t be surprised to learn there are folks capable of garnering a significant statistical advantage on coin flipping through technique/muscle memory/consistency.