Datasets:
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Browse files- Experiments.ipynb +725 -0
- criteo_attribution_dataset.tsv.gz +3 -0
Experiments.ipynb
ADDED
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@@ -0,0 +1,725 @@
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| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"cells": [
|
| 3 |
+
{
|
| 4 |
+
"cell_type": "markdown",
|
| 5 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 6 |
+
"source": [
|
| 7 |
+
"# Attribution Modeling Increases Efficiency of Bidding in Display Advertising\n",
|
| 8 |
+
"Eustache Diemert*, Julien Meynet* (Criteo Research), Damien Lefortier (Facebook), Pierre Galland (Criteo)\n",
|
| 9 |
+
"*authors contributed equally.\n",
|
| 10 |
+
"\n",
|
| 11 |
+
"This work was published in:\n",
|
| 12 |
+
"[2017 AdKDD & TargetAd Workshop, in conjunction with\n",
|
| 13 |
+
"The 23rd ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD 2017)](https://adkdd17.wixsite.com/adkddtargetad2017)"
|
| 14 |
+
]
|
| 15 |
+
},
|
| 16 |
+
{
|
| 17 |
+
"cell_type": "markdown",
|
| 18 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 19 |
+
"source": [
|
| 20 |
+
" * This code includes all needed material to reproduce results reported in the paper. This dataset can also be used for further research like: testing alternative attribution models, offline metrics, etc..\n",
|
| 21 |
+
" * For details about the content of the Dataset, refer to the README file"
|
| 22 |
+
]
|
| 23 |
+
},
|
| 24 |
+
{
|
| 25 |
+
"cell_type": "markdown",
|
| 26 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 27 |
+
"source": [
|
| 28 |
+
"# Preprocessing"
|
| 29 |
+
]
|
| 30 |
+
},
|
| 31 |
+
{
|
| 32 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 33 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 34 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 35 |
+
"collapsed": false
|
| 36 |
+
},
|
| 37 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 38 |
+
"source": [
|
| 39 |
+
"%pylab inline\n",
|
| 40 |
+
"import pandas as pd\n",
|
| 41 |
+
"plt.style.use('ggplot')\n",
|
| 42 |
+
"from scipy.optimize import minimize"
|
| 43 |
+
]
|
| 44 |
+
},
|
| 45 |
+
{
|
| 46 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 47 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 48 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 49 |
+
"collapsed": true
|
| 50 |
+
},
|
| 51 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 52 |
+
"source": [
|
| 53 |
+
"DATA_FILE='criteo_attribution_dataset.tsv.gz'\n",
|
| 54 |
+
"df = pd.read_csv(DATA_FILE, sep='\\t', compression='gzip')"
|
| 55 |
+
]
|
| 56 |
+
},
|
| 57 |
+
{
|
| 58 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 59 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 60 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 61 |
+
"collapsed": true
|
| 62 |
+
},
|
| 63 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 64 |
+
"source": [
|
| 65 |
+
"df['day'] = np.floor(df.timestamp / 86400.).astype(int)"
|
| 66 |
+
]
|
| 67 |
+
},
|
| 68 |
+
{
|
| 69 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 70 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 71 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 72 |
+
"collapsed": false
|
| 73 |
+
},
|
| 74 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 75 |
+
"source": [
|
| 76 |
+
"df.day.hist(bins=len(df.day.unique()))"
|
| 77 |
+
]
|
| 78 |
+
},
|
| 79 |
+
{
|
| 80 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 81 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 82 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 83 |
+
"collapsed": true
|
| 84 |
+
},
|
| 85 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 86 |
+
"source": [
|
| 87 |
+
"df['gap_click_sale'] = -1\n",
|
| 88 |
+
"df.loc[df.conversion == 1, 'gap_click_sale'] = df.conversion_timestamp - df.timestamp"
|
| 89 |
+
]
|
| 90 |
+
},
|
| 91 |
+
{
|
| 92 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 93 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 94 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 95 |
+
"collapsed": true
|
| 96 |
+
},
|
| 97 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 98 |
+
"source": [
|
| 99 |
+
"FEATURES = ['campaign', 'cat1', 'cat2', 'cat3', 'cat4', 'cat5', 'cat6', \n",
|
| 100 |
+
" 'cat7', 'cat8']\n",
|
| 101 |
+
"INFOS = ['cost', 'cpo', 'time_since_last_click']"
|
| 102 |
+
]
|
| 103 |
+
},
|
| 104 |
+
{
|
| 105 |
+
"cell_type": "markdown",
|
| 106 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 107 |
+
"source": [
|
| 108 |
+
"## Labels"
|
| 109 |
+
]
|
| 110 |
+
},
|
| 111 |
+
{
|
| 112 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 113 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 114 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 115 |
+
"collapsed": true
|
| 116 |
+
},
|
| 117 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 118 |
+
"source": [
|
| 119 |
+
"df['last_click'] = df.attribution * (df.click_pos == df.click_nb - 1).astype(int)\n",
|
| 120 |
+
"df['first_click'] = df.attribution * (df.click_pos == 0).astype(int)\n",
|
| 121 |
+
"df['all_clicks'] = df.attribution\n",
|
| 122 |
+
"df['uniform'] = df.attribution / (df.click_nb).astype(float)\n",
|
| 123 |
+
"INFOS += ['last_click', 'first_click', 'all_clicks', 'uniform']"
|
| 124 |
+
]
|
| 125 |
+
},
|
| 126 |
+
{
|
| 127 |
+
"cell_type": "markdown",
|
| 128 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 129 |
+
"source": [
|
| 130 |
+
"# Learning / Validation"
|
| 131 |
+
]
|
| 132 |
+
},
|
| 133 |
+
{
|
| 134 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 135 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 136 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 137 |
+
"collapsed": true
|
| 138 |
+
},
|
| 139 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 140 |
+
"source": [
|
| 141 |
+
"from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression\n",
|
| 142 |
+
"from sklearn.feature_extraction import FeatureHasher\n",
|
| 143 |
+
"from sklearn.metrics import log_loss"
|
| 144 |
+
]
|
| 145 |
+
},
|
| 146 |
+
{
|
| 147 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 148 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 149 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 150 |
+
"collapsed": true
|
| 151 |
+
},
|
| 152 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 153 |
+
"source": [
|
| 154 |
+
"def bootstrap(data, num_samples, statistic, alpha):\n",
|
| 155 |
+
" \"\"\"Returns bootstrap estimate of 100.0*(1-alpha) CI for statistic.\"\"\"\n",
|
| 156 |
+
" n = len(data)\n",
|
| 157 |
+
" data = np.array(data)\n",
|
| 158 |
+
" stats = []\n",
|
| 159 |
+
" for _ in range(num_samples):\n",
|
| 160 |
+
" idx = np.random.randint(0, n, n)\n",
|
| 161 |
+
" samples = data[idx]\n",
|
| 162 |
+
" stats += [statistic(samples)]\n",
|
| 163 |
+
" stats = np.array(sorted(stats))\n",
|
| 164 |
+
" return (stats[int((alpha/2.0)*num_samples)],\n",
|
| 165 |
+
" stats[int((1-alpha/2.0)*num_samples)])"
|
| 166 |
+
]
|
| 167 |
+
},
|
| 168 |
+
{
|
| 169 |
+
"cell_type": "markdown",
|
| 170 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 171 |
+
"source": [
|
| 172 |
+
"## Attribution model\n",
|
| 173 |
+
"Learns exponential decay lambda parameter"
|
| 174 |
+
]
|
| 175 |
+
},
|
| 176 |
+
{
|
| 177 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 178 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 179 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 180 |
+
"collapsed": true
|
| 181 |
+
},
|
| 182 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 183 |
+
"source": [
|
| 184 |
+
"def attr_nllh(l,x,y):\n",
|
| 185 |
+
" loss = 0.0\n",
|
| 186 |
+
" lamb = l[0]\n",
|
| 187 |
+
" n = x.shape[0]\n",
|
| 188 |
+
" for i in range(n):\n",
|
| 189 |
+
" if y[i] == 1:\n",
|
| 190 |
+
" loss += lamb*x[i]\n",
|
| 191 |
+
" else:\n",
|
| 192 |
+
" loss -= np.log(1 - np.exp(-lamb*x[i])) \n",
|
| 193 |
+
" return loss/float(n)\n",
|
| 194 |
+
"\n",
|
| 195 |
+
"def attr_nllh_grad(l,x,y):\n",
|
| 196 |
+
" grad = 0.0\n",
|
| 197 |
+
" lamb = l[0]\n",
|
| 198 |
+
" n = x.shape[0]\n",
|
| 199 |
+
" for i in range(n):\n",
|
| 200 |
+
" grad += x[i]*y[i] / (1 - np.exp(-lamb*x[i]))\n",
|
| 201 |
+
" return np.array([grad/float(n)])\n",
|
| 202 |
+
"\n",
|
| 203 |
+
"\n",
|
| 204 |
+
"def optimize_lambda(tts, attrib):\n",
|
| 205 |
+
" return minimize(attr_nllh, 1e-3, method='L-BFGS-B', jac=attr_nllh_grad, \n",
|
| 206 |
+
" options={'disp': True, 'maxiter': 20 }, bounds=((1e-15, 1e-4),), \n",
|
| 207 |
+
" args=(tts,attrib)).x[0]\n",
|
| 208 |
+
"\n",
|
| 209 |
+
"def learn_attribution_model(df_view, test_day, learning_duration, \n",
|
| 210 |
+
" verbose=False, ci=False, rescale=1., \n",
|
| 211 |
+
" optimizer=optimize_lambda):\n",
|
| 212 |
+
" df_train = df_view[(df_view.day >= test_day - learning_duration) & (df_view.day < test_day)]\n",
|
| 213 |
+
" df_conv = df_train[df_train.click_pos == df_train.click_nb - 1]\n",
|
| 214 |
+
" x = df_conv.gap_click_sale.values\n",
|
| 215 |
+
" y = df_conv.attribution.values \n",
|
| 216 |
+
" \n",
|
| 217 |
+
" avg_tts = x.mean()\n",
|
| 218 |
+
" tts_ci = bootstrap(x, 100, np.mean, .05)\n",
|
| 219 |
+
" tts_ci = tts_ci[1] - tts_ci[0]\n",
|
| 220 |
+
"\n",
|
| 221 |
+
" lamb = optimize_lambda(x, y)\n",
|
| 222 |
+
" \n",
|
| 223 |
+
" lambs = []\n",
|
| 224 |
+
" n_bootstraps = 30\n",
|
| 225 |
+
" alpha=.05\n",
|
| 226 |
+
" if ci:\n",
|
| 227 |
+
" for _ in range(n_bootstraps):\n",
|
| 228 |
+
" idx = np.random.randint(0, x.shape[0], x.shape)\n",
|
| 229 |
+
" xx = x[idx]\n",
|
| 230 |
+
" yy = y[idx]\n",
|
| 231 |
+
" lambs += [optimize_lambda(xx, yy)]\n",
|
| 232 |
+
"\n",
|
| 233 |
+
" if verbose:\n",
|
| 234 |
+
" print('\\t\\t-avg_tts', avg_tts, '+/-', tts_ci, \n",
|
| 235 |
+
" ' = ', avg_tts / 3600., 'hours = ', avg_tts / 86400., 'days')\n",
|
| 236 |
+
" if ci:\n",
|
| 237 |
+
" print('\\t\\t-lambda', lamb, '+/-', (lambs[int((1-alpha/2.)*n_bootstraps)] - lambs[int((alpha/2.)*n_bootstraps)]))\n",
|
| 238 |
+
" else:\n",
|
| 239 |
+
" print('\\t\\t-lambda', lamb)\n",
|
| 240 |
+
" \n",
|
| 241 |
+
" return avg_tts, lamb"
|
| 242 |
+
]
|
| 243 |
+
},
|
| 244 |
+
{
|
| 245 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 246 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 247 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 248 |
+
"collapsed": false
|
| 249 |
+
},
|
| 250 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 251 |
+
"source": [
|
| 252 |
+
"global_avg_tts, global_lamb = learn_attribution_model(df, 21, 20)"
|
| 253 |
+
]
|
| 254 |
+
},
|
| 255 |
+
{
|
| 256 |
+
"cell_type": "markdown",
|
| 257 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 258 |
+
"source": [
|
| 259 |
+
"## Compute AA attributions on full dataset\n",
|
| 260 |
+
"As explained in the paper, the exponential decay parameter is satble throughout the days. For reducing computation complexity we compute the exponential-based attributions on the full dataset."
|
| 261 |
+
]
|
| 262 |
+
},
|
| 263 |
+
{
|
| 264 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 265 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 266 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 267 |
+
"collapsed": true
|
| 268 |
+
},
|
| 269 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 270 |
+
"source": [
|
| 271 |
+
"def compute_aa_attributions(test_info, normalize=True):\n",
|
| 272 |
+
" test_info['idx'] = test_info.index\n",
|
| 273 |
+
" converted = test_info[test_info.all_clicks==1]\n",
|
| 274 |
+
" # to propoerly compute normalized attribution factors, we have to reconstruct the timelines for each conversion\n",
|
| 275 |
+
" conversion_ids = converted['conversion_id'].unique()\n",
|
| 276 |
+
" # now reconstruct timeline and apply attribution\n",
|
| 277 |
+
" by_conversion = converted[['conversion_id', 'timestamp', 'idx', 'bf_pred', 'time_since_last_click', 'last_click']].groupby('conversion_id')\n",
|
| 278 |
+
" new_clicks_data = []\n",
|
| 279 |
+
" \n",
|
| 280 |
+
" s_attr = []\n",
|
| 281 |
+
" s_attr_lc = []\n",
|
| 282 |
+
" # for each conversion compute attribution for each click\n",
|
| 283 |
+
" for conv, evts in by_conversion:\n",
|
| 284 |
+
" sorted_clicks = sorted(evts.values.tolist(), key=lambda x: x[1])\n",
|
| 285 |
+
" bf_pred = [_[3] for _ in sorted_clicks]\n",
|
| 286 |
+
" sum_bf = np.sum(bf_pred)\n",
|
| 287 |
+
" sum_lc = np.sum([_[5] for _ in sorted_clicks])\n",
|
| 288 |
+
" sum_attr = 0.0\n",
|
| 289 |
+
" for pos, (_, _, idx_, bf_, tslc_, lc_) in enumerate(sorted_clicks):\n",
|
| 290 |
+
" aa_attr = bf_pred[pos]\n",
|
| 291 |
+
" if normalize:\n",
|
| 292 |
+
" if sum_bf>0.0:\n",
|
| 293 |
+
" aa_attr/=sum_bf\n",
|
| 294 |
+
" else:\n",
|
| 295 |
+
" aa_attr = 0.0\n",
|
| 296 |
+
" sum_attr += aa_attr\n",
|
| 297 |
+
" new_clicks_data.append((idx_, aa_attr))\n",
|
| 298 |
+
" s_attr.append(sum_attr)\n",
|
| 299 |
+
" s_attr_lc.append(sum_lc)\n",
|
| 300 |
+
" \n",
|
| 301 |
+
" # now for each click, apply attribution from computed data\n",
|
| 302 |
+
" new_clicks_df = pd.DataFrame(columns=['click_idx', 'aa_attribution'])\n",
|
| 303 |
+
" cidx, attr = zip(*new_clicks_data)\n",
|
| 304 |
+
" new_clicks_df['click_idx'] = cidx\n",
|
| 305 |
+
" new_clicks_df['aa_attribution'] = attr\n",
|
| 306 |
+
" new_clicks_df = new_clicks_df.set_index('click_idx')\n",
|
| 307 |
+
" joined = test_info.join(new_clicks_df)\n",
|
| 308 |
+
" joined['aa_attribution'] = joined['aa_attribution'].fillna(value = 0.0)\n",
|
| 309 |
+
" return joined['aa_attribution']"
|
| 310 |
+
]
|
| 311 |
+
},
|
| 312 |
+
{
|
| 313 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 314 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 315 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 316 |
+
"collapsed": false
|
| 317 |
+
},
|
| 318 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 319 |
+
"source": [
|
| 320 |
+
"#learn global attribution model\n",
|
| 321 |
+
"avg_tts, lamb = learn_attribution_model(df, 21, 20)"
|
| 322 |
+
]
|
| 323 |
+
},
|
| 324 |
+
{
|
| 325 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 326 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 327 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 328 |
+
"collapsed": false
|
| 329 |
+
},
|
| 330 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 331 |
+
"source": [
|
| 332 |
+
"# compute the bid factor from aa attribution for each display\n",
|
| 333 |
+
"gap_test = df.time_since_last_click.values\n",
|
| 334 |
+
"previous_tslc_mask = (df.time_since_last_click >=0).astype(float)\n",
|
| 335 |
+
"attr_pred = np.exp(-lamb*gap_test)\n",
|
| 336 |
+
"attr_pred *= previous_tslc_mask\n",
|
| 337 |
+
"bf_pred = 1 - attr_pred\n",
|
| 338 |
+
"df['bf_pred'] = bf_pred\n",
|
| 339 |
+
"df['AA_normed'] = compute_aa_attributions(df, normalize=True)\n",
|
| 340 |
+
"df['AA_not_normed'] = compute_aa_attributions(df, normalize=False)\n",
|
| 341 |
+
"INFOS += ['bf_pred', 'AA_normed', 'AA_not_normed']"
|
| 342 |
+
]
|
| 343 |
+
},
|
| 344 |
+
{
|
| 345 |
+
"cell_type": "markdown",
|
| 346 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 347 |
+
"source": [
|
| 348 |
+
"## Validation Code\n",
|
| 349 |
+
"Utility methods for performing validation (test on 1 day, learn on previous x days and slide)"
|
| 350 |
+
]
|
| 351 |
+
},
|
| 352 |
+
{
|
| 353 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 354 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 355 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 356 |
+
"collapsed": true
|
| 357 |
+
},
|
| 358 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 359 |
+
"source": [
|
| 360 |
+
"def get_train_test_slice(df_view, test_day, learning_duration, label, features=None, \n",
|
| 361 |
+
" hash_space=2**24, nrows=None, infos=None):\n",
|
| 362 |
+
" df_test = df_view[df_view.day == test_day]\n",
|
| 363 |
+
" if nrows is not None:\n",
|
| 364 |
+
" df_test = df_test[:nrows]\n",
|
| 365 |
+
" if features is None:\n",
|
| 366 |
+
" features = FEATURES\n",
|
| 367 |
+
" if infos is None:\n",
|
| 368 |
+
" infos = INFOS\n",
|
| 369 |
+
" df_train = df_view[(df_view.day >= test_day - learning_duration) & (df_view.day < test_day)]\n",
|
| 370 |
+
" if nrows is not None:\n",
|
| 371 |
+
" df_train = df_train[:nrows]\n",
|
| 372 |
+
" \n",
|
| 373 |
+
" X_train = df_train[features]\n",
|
| 374 |
+
" X_test = df_test[features]\n",
|
| 375 |
+
" \n",
|
| 376 |
+
" hasher = FeatureHasher(n_features=hash_space, non_negative=1)\n",
|
| 377 |
+
" \n",
|
| 378 |
+
" def to_dict_values(df_view):\n",
|
| 379 |
+
" return [dict([(_[0]+str(_[1]),1) for _ in zip(features,l)]) for l in df_view.values]\n",
|
| 380 |
+
" \n",
|
| 381 |
+
" X_train_h = hasher.fit_transform(to_dict_values(X_train))\n",
|
| 382 |
+
" X_test_h = hasher.transform(to_dict_values(X_test))\n",
|
| 383 |
+
" y_train = df_train[label]\n",
|
| 384 |
+
" y_test = df_test[label]\n",
|
| 385 |
+
" return (X_train_h, y_train), (X_test_h, y_test), df_test[infos], df_train.last_click.mean()"
|
| 386 |
+
]
|
| 387 |
+
},
|
| 388 |
+
{
|
| 389 |
+
"cell_type": "markdown",
|
| 390 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 391 |
+
"collapsed": true
|
| 392 |
+
},
|
| 393 |
+
"source": [
|
| 394 |
+
"### Compute Utilities"
|
| 395 |
+
]
|
| 396 |
+
},
|
| 397 |
+
{
|
| 398 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 399 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 400 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 401 |
+
"collapsed": true
|
| 402 |
+
},
|
| 403 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 404 |
+
"source": [
|
| 405 |
+
"from scipy.special import gammainc\n",
|
| 406 |
+
"def empirical_utility(a, v, c, p):\n",
|
| 407 |
+
" won = np.array(p*v > c, dtype=np.int)\n",
|
| 408 |
+
" return (a*v)*won, -c*won\n",
|
| 409 |
+
"\n",
|
| 410 |
+
"def expected_utility(a, v, c, p, beta=1000):\n",
|
| 411 |
+
" return a*v*gammainc(beta*c+1, beta*p*v) - ((beta*c+1)/beta)*gammainc(beta*c+2, beta*p*v)"
|
| 412 |
+
]
|
| 413 |
+
},
|
| 414 |
+
{
|
| 415 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 416 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 417 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 418 |
+
"collapsed": true
|
| 419 |
+
},
|
| 420 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 421 |
+
"source": [
|
| 422 |
+
"def evaluate_utility(y_pred, utilities, betas, test_info):\n",
|
| 423 |
+
" partial_score = dict()\n",
|
| 424 |
+
" for utility in utilities:\n",
|
| 425 |
+
" attribution = test_info[utility]\n",
|
| 426 |
+
" for beta in betas:\n",
|
| 427 |
+
" if np.isinf(beta):\n",
|
| 428 |
+
" est_utility = empirical_utility(attribution, test_info.cpo, test_info.cost, y_pred)\n",
|
| 429 |
+
" else:\n",
|
| 430 |
+
" est_utility = expected_utility(attribution, test_info.cpo, test_info.cost, y_pred, beta=beta)\n",
|
| 431 |
+
" beta_str = str(beta) if not np.isinf(beta) else 'inf'\n",
|
| 432 |
+
" partial_score['utility-'+utility+'-beta'+beta_str] = est_utility\n",
|
| 433 |
+
" return partial_score"
|
| 434 |
+
]
|
| 435 |
+
},
|
| 436 |
+
{
|
| 437 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 438 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 439 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 440 |
+
"collapsed": true
|
| 441 |
+
},
|
| 442 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 443 |
+
"source": [
|
| 444 |
+
"def get_naive_baseline(y_train, X_test):\n",
|
| 445 |
+
" return np.mean(y_train)*np.ones(X_test.shape[0])"
|
| 446 |
+
]
|
| 447 |
+
},
|
| 448 |
+
{
|
| 449 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 450 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 451 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 452 |
+
"collapsed": true
|
| 453 |
+
},
|
| 454 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 455 |
+
"source": [
|
| 456 |
+
"def evaluate_day_for_bidder(df_view, test_day, learning_duration, bidder, utilities, betas,\n",
|
| 457 |
+
" hash_space=None, features=None, clf=None, AA_bidder_label=None, recalibrate=True):\n",
|
| 458 |
+
" score = dict()\n",
|
| 459 |
+
" bid_profile = dict()\n",
|
| 460 |
+
" label = bidder\n",
|
| 461 |
+
" if bidder == 'AA':\n",
|
| 462 |
+
" label = AA_bidder_label\n",
|
| 463 |
+
" # get data slice\n",
|
| 464 |
+
" (X_train, y_train), (X_test, y_test), test_info, y_train_lc_mean = get_train_test_slice(df_view,\n",
|
| 465 |
+
" test_day,\n",
|
| 466 |
+
" learning_duration,\n",
|
| 467 |
+
" label=label, \n",
|
| 468 |
+
" hash_space = hash_space,\n",
|
| 469 |
+
" features=features) \n",
|
| 470 |
+
" \n",
|
| 471 |
+
" # learn the model\n",
|
| 472 |
+
" clf.fit(X_train, y_train)\n",
|
| 473 |
+
" \n",
|
| 474 |
+
" # get test predictions\n",
|
| 475 |
+
" y_pred = clf.predict_proba(X_test)[:,1] \n",
|
| 476 |
+
" \n",
|
| 477 |
+
" # if aa bidder: modulate the bids by bid_factor computed from attribution model\n",
|
| 478 |
+
" if bidder == 'AA':\n",
|
| 479 |
+
" y_pred *= test_info['bf_pred']\n",
|
| 480 |
+
" \n",
|
| 481 |
+
" # compute the loss\n",
|
| 482 |
+
" loss = log_loss(y_test, y_pred, normalize=0)\n",
|
| 483 |
+
" \n",
|
| 484 |
+
" # loss of baseline model\n",
|
| 485 |
+
" baseline_loss = log_loss(y_test, get_naive_baseline(y_train, X_test), normalize=0)\n",
|
| 486 |
+
" score['nllh'] = loss\n",
|
| 487 |
+
" score['nllh_naive'] = baseline_loss\n",
|
| 488 |
+
" \n",
|
| 489 |
+
" # do we recalibrate output? (i.e recalibrate mean prediction). This is usually done by a control system.\n",
|
| 490 |
+
" if recalibrate:\n",
|
| 491 |
+
" y_pred *= (y_train_lc_mean / y_pred.mean())\n",
|
| 492 |
+
" \n",
|
| 493 |
+
" #how many displays are won?\n",
|
| 494 |
+
" won = (y_pred*test_info.cpo > test_info.cost).astype(int)\n",
|
| 495 |
+
" score['won'] = np.sum(won)\n",
|
| 496 |
+
" score['n_auctions'] = y_pred.shape[0]\n",
|
| 497 |
+
" \n",
|
| 498 |
+
" # compute the scores on this slice\n",
|
| 499 |
+
" score.update(evaluate_utility(y_pred, utilities, betas, test_info))\n",
|
| 500 |
+
" \n",
|
| 501 |
+
" #store bid profiles\n",
|
| 502 |
+
" bid_profile['time_since_last_click'] = test_info.time_since_last_click\n",
|
| 503 |
+
" bid_profile['bid'] = y_pred\n",
|
| 504 |
+
" \n",
|
| 505 |
+
" return score, bid_profile"
|
| 506 |
+
]
|
| 507 |
+
},
|
| 508 |
+
{
|
| 509 |
+
"cell_type": "markdown",
|
| 510 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 511 |
+
"source": [
|
| 512 |
+
"#### Simple utility functions to manipulate scores"
|
| 513 |
+
]
|
| 514 |
+
},
|
| 515 |
+
{
|
| 516 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 517 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 518 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 519 |
+
"collapsed": true
|
| 520 |
+
},
|
| 521 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 522 |
+
"source": [
|
| 523 |
+
"def merge_utility_score(score):\n",
|
| 524 |
+
" updates = dict()\n",
|
| 525 |
+
" for k,v in score.items():\n",
|
| 526 |
+
" if not 'utility' in k:\n",
|
| 527 |
+
" continue\n",
|
| 528 |
+
" if 'inf' in k:\n",
|
| 529 |
+
" revenue, cost = v\n",
|
| 530 |
+
" updates[k] = np.sum(cost) + np.sum(revenue)\n",
|
| 531 |
+
" updates[k+'~revenue'] = np.sum(revenue)\n",
|
| 532 |
+
" updates[k+'~cost'] = np.sum(cost)\n",
|
| 533 |
+
" v = revenue + cost\n",
|
| 534 |
+
" else:\n",
|
| 535 |
+
" updates[k] = np.sum(v)\n",
|
| 536 |
+
" bounds = bootstrap(v, 100, np.sum, .05)\n",
|
| 537 |
+
" delta = (bounds[1]-bounds[0])/2.\n",
|
| 538 |
+
" updates[k+'-delta'] = delta\n",
|
| 539 |
+
" score.update(updates)"
|
| 540 |
+
]
|
| 541 |
+
},
|
| 542 |
+
{
|
| 543 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 544 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 545 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 546 |
+
"collapsed": true
|
| 547 |
+
},
|
| 548 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 549 |
+
"source": [
|
| 550 |
+
"def update_score(partial_score, score):\n",
|
| 551 |
+
" for k, v in partial_score.items():\n",
|
| 552 |
+
" if 'utility' in k:\n",
|
| 553 |
+
" if 'inf' in k:\n",
|
| 554 |
+
" revenue, cost = v\n",
|
| 555 |
+
" print('\\t\\t', k, np.sum(cost)+np.sum(revenue))\n",
|
| 556 |
+
" current_revenue, current_cost = score.get(k, (np.array([]),np.array([])))\n",
|
| 557 |
+
" score[k] = (\n",
|
| 558 |
+
" np.append(current_revenue, revenue),\n",
|
| 559 |
+
" np.append(current_cost, cost)\n",
|
| 560 |
+
" )\n",
|
| 561 |
+
" else:\n",
|
| 562 |
+
" print('\\t\\t', k, np.sum(v))\n",
|
| 563 |
+
" score[k] = np.append(score.get(k, np.array([])), v)\n",
|
| 564 |
+
" else:\n",
|
| 565 |
+
" print('\\t\\t', k, v)\n",
|
| 566 |
+
" score[k] = score.get(k, 0) + v"
|
| 567 |
+
]
|
| 568 |
+
},
|
| 569 |
+
{
|
| 570 |
+
"cell_type": "markdown",
|
| 571 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 572 |
+
"collapsed": true
|
| 573 |
+
},
|
| 574 |
+
"source": [
|
| 575 |
+
"### Evaluate several bidders on several utility metric variants"
|
| 576 |
+
]
|
| 577 |
+
},
|
| 578 |
+
{
|
| 579 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 580 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 581 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 582 |
+
"collapsed": true
|
| 583 |
+
},
|
| 584 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 585 |
+
"source": [
|
| 586 |
+
"from datetime import datetime, timedelta\n",
|
| 587 |
+
"def evaluate_slices(df_view,\n",
|
| 588 |
+
" bidders=['last_click', 'first_click', 'AA'],\n",
|
| 589 |
+
" utilities=['last_click','first_click', 'AA_normed', 'AA_not_normed'],\n",
|
| 590 |
+
" betas=[np.inf, 10, 1000],\n",
|
| 591 |
+
" test_days=[22],\n",
|
| 592 |
+
" learning_duration=21,\n",
|
| 593 |
+
" hash_space=2**24,\n",
|
| 594 |
+
" features=None,\n",
|
| 595 |
+
" AA_bidder_label='all_clicks',\n",
|
| 596 |
+
" clf = LogisticRegression(solver='lbfgs', n_jobs=4),\n",
|
| 597 |
+
" recalibrate = True):\n",
|
| 598 |
+
" bid_profiles = []\n",
|
| 599 |
+
" scores = []\n",
|
| 600 |
+
" for bidder in bidders:\n",
|
| 601 |
+
" print ('*'*80)\n",
|
| 602 |
+
" print(\"EVALUATING BIDDER:\", bidder)\n",
|
| 603 |
+
" score = dict()\n",
|
| 604 |
+
" bid_profile = dict()\n",
|
| 605 |
+
" for test_day in test_days:\n",
|
| 606 |
+
" start = datetime.now()\n",
|
| 607 |
+
" print('\\t- day:', test_day)\n",
|
| 608 |
+
" partial_score, partial_bid_profile = evaluate_day_for_bidder(\n",
|
| 609 |
+
" df_view, test_day, learning_duration, bidder, \n",
|
| 610 |
+
" utilities, betas,\n",
|
| 611 |
+
" hash_space=hash_space, features=features, clf=clf, \n",
|
| 612 |
+
" AA_bidder_label=AA_bidder_label, recalibrate=recalibrate\n",
|
| 613 |
+
" )\n",
|
| 614 |
+
" update_score(partial_score, score)\n",
|
| 615 |
+
" for k, v in partial_bid_profile.items():\n",
|
| 616 |
+
" bid_profile[k] = np.append(bid_profile.get(k, np.array([])), v)\n",
|
| 617 |
+
" print('\\t- took', datetime.now() - start)\n",
|
| 618 |
+
" score['bidder'] = bidder\n",
|
| 619 |
+
" bid_profile['bidder'] = bidder\n",
|
| 620 |
+
" score['nllh_comp_vn'] = (score['nllh_naive'] - score['nllh']) / np.abs(score['nllh_naive'])\n",
|
| 621 |
+
" score['win_rate'] = score['won'] / score['n_auctions']\n",
|
| 622 |
+
" merge_utility_score(score)\n",
|
| 623 |
+
" scores.append(score)\n",
|
| 624 |
+
" bid_profiles.append(bid_profile)\n",
|
| 625 |
+
" return pd.DataFrame(scores), pd.DataFrame(bid_profiles)"
|
| 626 |
+
]
|
| 627 |
+
},
|
| 628 |
+
{
|
| 629 |
+
"cell_type": "markdown",
|
| 630 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 631 |
+
"source": [
|
| 632 |
+
"## Run & Results"
|
| 633 |
+
]
|
| 634 |
+
},
|
| 635 |
+
{
|
| 636 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 637 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 638 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 639 |
+
"collapsed": true,
|
| 640 |
+
"scrolled": true
|
| 641 |
+
},
|
| 642 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 643 |
+
"source": [
|
| 644 |
+
"#full run\n",
|
| 645 |
+
"if False:\n",
|
| 646 |
+
" scores, bid_profiles = evaluate_slices(df,\n",
|
| 647 |
+
" bidders=['last_click',\n",
|
| 648 |
+
" 'first_click',\n",
|
| 649 |
+
" 'AA'],\n",
|
| 650 |
+
" utilities=['last_click',\n",
|
| 651 |
+
" 'first_click',\n",
|
| 652 |
+
" 'AA_normed',\n",
|
| 653 |
+
" 'AA_not_normed'],\n",
|
| 654 |
+
" test_days=range(22,29),\n",
|
| 655 |
+
" learning_duration=21,\n",
|
| 656 |
+
" hash_space = 2**18,\n",
|
| 657 |
+
" AA_bidder_label='all_clicks')"
|
| 658 |
+
]
|
| 659 |
+
},
|
| 660 |
+
{
|
| 661 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 662 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 663 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 664 |
+
"collapsed": false,
|
| 665 |
+
"scrolled": true
|
| 666 |
+
},
|
| 667 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 668 |
+
"source": [
|
| 669 |
+
"#simple debug run\n",
|
| 670 |
+
"if True:\n",
|
| 671 |
+
" scores, bid_profiles = evaluate_slices(df,\n",
|
| 672 |
+
" bidders=['last_click',\n",
|
| 673 |
+
" 'AA'],\n",
|
| 674 |
+
" utilities=['last_click',\n",
|
| 675 |
+
" 'AA_normed'],\n",
|
| 676 |
+
" test_days=range(22,23),\n",
|
| 677 |
+
" learning_duration=5,\n",
|
| 678 |
+
" hash_space = 2**13,\n",
|
| 679 |
+
" AA_bidder_label='all_clicks')"
|
| 680 |
+
]
|
| 681 |
+
},
|
| 682 |
+
{
|
| 683 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 684 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 685 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 686 |
+
"collapsed": false
|
| 687 |
+
},
|
| 688 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 689 |
+
"source": [
|
| 690 |
+
"scores"
|
| 691 |
+
]
|
| 692 |
+
},
|
| 693 |
+
{
|
| 694 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 695 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 696 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 697 |
+
"collapsed": true
|
| 698 |
+
},
|
| 699 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 700 |
+
"source": []
|
| 701 |
+
}
|
| 702 |
+
],
|
| 703 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 704 |
+
"anaconda-cloud": {},
|
| 705 |
+
"kernelspec": {
|
| 706 |
+
"display_name": "Python 3",
|
| 707 |
+
"language": "python",
|
| 708 |
+
"name": "python3"
|
| 709 |
+
},
|
| 710 |
+
"language_info": {
|
| 711 |
+
"codemirror_mode": {
|
| 712 |
+
"name": "ipython",
|
| 713 |
+
"version": 3
|
| 714 |
+
},
|
| 715 |
+
"file_extension": ".py",
|
| 716 |
+
"mimetype": "text/x-python",
|
| 717 |
+
"name": "python",
|
| 718 |
+
"nbconvert_exporter": "python",
|
| 719 |
+
"pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
|
| 720 |
+
"version": "3.5.3"
|
| 721 |
+
}
|
| 722 |
+
},
|
| 723 |
+
"nbformat": 4,
|
| 724 |
+
"nbformat_minor": 1
|
| 725 |
+
}
|
criteo_attribution_dataset.tsv.gz
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
|
| 2 |
+
oid sha256:94ac7a465564349bc7ba008602211d5990a3c53cc133abc0aadef61ea2391a98
|
| 3 |
+
size 653015824
|