# Draft-eligible pool vs NCAA men’s roster headcount

**Purpose.** Dataset research note (not a Paper 1 manuscript claim). Clarifies that **17,346** men’s basketball athletes in this repo’s **2025–26** release is a **roster count**, not the annual NBA draft-eligible pool. Paper 1 (`3_analysis/nba_draft_hs_paper/`, paper-v1.1.2+) is draft-picks-only and does not use these scale figures. Numbers below are either computed from this repo’s basketball release or cited from public NBA/secondary sources (no invented declare lists). Published early-entry year tables: **`draft_eligible_pool_published_numbers.md`**.

**Roster source.** `dataset_release/basketball/data/ncaa_basketball_rosters_2025-26.csv` (Men, `season=2025-26`). Same totals in `analysis/ncaa_basketball_analysis_dataset.csv` (`class_std` ≡ `class_standing`).

---

## 1. NBA eligibility (college / domestic path)

Summary of current CBA / Wikipedia *Eligibility for the NBA draft* framing (not legal advice):

| Status | Who | In draft pool? |
| --- | --- | --- |
| **Automatic** | Meet age (≥19 in draft calendar year) and one-year-removed-from-HS minima, **and** have completed four years of college eligibility (or graduated with no remaining eligibility); related paths for non-college / pro contracts | Yes — **no declaration required** |
| **Early entrant** | Not yet automatic; files written notice with the NBA (≥60 days before draft) | Yes **if** they remain after withdrawal deadlines |
| **Underclassmen who do not declare** | Fr/So/Jr (and some seniors with eligibility remaining) who never file | **No** |
| **International** | Separate automatic (e.g., turn 22) / early-entry track | Separate from NCAA roster class logic |

Roster class year is only a **proxy** for automatic eligibility: academic “Sr/Gr” ≈ exhausted-eligibility upper bound; some listed seniors still have eligibility remaining and must declare; juniors can occasionally be automatic if eligibility is exhausted atypical ways. Declares and withdrawals are **not** in our roster files.

---

## 2. Men’s class-year crosstab (2025–26)

| `class_standing` | N | % of 17,346 |
| --- | ---: | ---: |
| Fr | 4,748 | 27.4% |
| So | 3,699 | 21.3% |
| Jr | 4,309 | 24.8% |
| Sr | 3,522 | 20.3% |
| Gr | 742 | 4.3% |
| UNK | 326 | 1.9% |
| **All** | **17,346** | **100%** |

### By division × class

| Division | Fr | So | Jr | Sr | Gr | UNK | All |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| D1 | 1,376 | 1,104 | 1,205 | 1,145 | 466 | 111 | 5,407 |
| D2 | 1,301 | 898 | 1,362 | 958 | 158 | 43 | 4,720 |
| D3 | 2,071 | 1,697 | 1,742 | 1,419 | 118 | 172 | 7,219 |
| **All** | **4,748** | **3,699** | **4,309** | **3,522** | **742** | **326** | **17,346** |

### Roster-based eligibility bounds

| Construct | N | Notes |
| --- | ---: | --- |
| **Sr + Gr** (auto-class **upper bound**) | **4,264** (24.6%) | Best roster proxy for “likely automatic” |
| D1 only Sr + Gr | 1,611 | Most draft-relevant slice of that upper bound |
| Fr + So | 8,447 (48.7%) | Not eligible unless they declare |
| Jr | 4,309 | Typically need to declare (unless eligibility already exhausted) |
| UNK | 326 | Class missing on source roster |

---

## 3. Early entrants (published NBA / secondary — not roster-derived)

Full year-by-year table with URLs: **`draft_eligible_pool_published_numbers.md`**.

| Draft year | Declared (NBA) | Remained | College among remained (Hoops Rumors, where listed) |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 2021 (peak) | **353** | **217** | — |
| 2024 | **195** | **77** (62 non-intl + 15 intl) | **53** |
| 2025 | **106** | **46** (32 non-intl + 14 intl) | **28** |
| 2026 | **71** | **31** | **26** |

**Prose range:** pandemic-era peak **353 → 217** remaining (2021); mid-decade **~100–200** declarations → **~50–80** remaining (2024–25); by **2026**, **71 → 31**. Remaining early entrants sit **on top of** the automatic-eligible set. NBA/NCAA do **not** publish an annual automatic-eligible headcount; SI (2024) describes that automatic pool as “much larger” than the early-entry remainder without a census.

**Picks ≠ early entrants.** Typical draft ≈ **60** slots (occasionally 58–59 with forfeits). NBA nationality tallies: **20** international picks in 2024, **23** in 2025 (includes NCAA internationals)—see published-numbers note §4.

---

## 4. Quoteable paper statement

> **17,346** = NCAA men’s basketball athletes rostered in 2025–26 (D1–D3).  
> **4,264** = Sr + Gr roster **upper bound** on the automatic-eligibility class (~**1,611** in D1 alone)—our proxy; not an NBA/NCAA published pool total.  
> **Published early entrants:** declarations **353 → 71** (2021–2026); remaining after withdrawals **217 → 31**. Recent mid years: **195 → 77** (2024), **106 → 46** (2025).  
> Draft-eligible pool ≈ automatic eligibles **+** remaining early entrants (no published single N); college-side rough scale ≈ **~4k class upper bound + dozens of remaining early entrants**.  
> **~60** players drafted each year (NBA “international” nationality share often ~⅓ in recent drafts; path-coded shares differ).

Cross-section slots / rostered ≈ 60 / 17,346 ≈ **0.35%** — a scale reminder only, not a measured individual probability.

Frozen paper numbers: `3_analysis/nba_draft_hs_paper/numbers.json` → `scale_context_not_outcome`.