data/forecasts.csv

model,match_id,phase,stage,team_a,team_b,final_score_a,final_score_b,outcome,decided_by,advanced,p_a,p_draw,p_b,bet_pick,bet_stake,reasoning,refl_outcome,refl_calibrated,refl_luck,refl_missed,refl_overweighted,refl_bet_diff,refl_conf,argmax,pick_outcome,correct,p_actual,brier,logloss,conf,odds_home_dec,odds_draw_dec,odds_away_dec,imp_home,imp_draw,imp_away,mnum,market_fav,market_fav_outcome,staked,profit,is_bet,win,contrarian,edge
claude,m01,group,group,Mexico,South Africa,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.66,0.21,0.13,team_a_win,25,"Mexico (Team A) are strong favorites at home in Estadio Azteca, aided by ~2,250m altitude that disadvantages sea-level South Africa, excellent recent defensive form (conceding ~2 goals in 8 internationals, six clean sheets), and a deeper, more experienced squad. Market odds (~-209 to -240, implying ~68-70%) and models (Dimers 68.2%, prediction markets ~69.5%) align with a clear Mexico edge, while South Africa's path realistically depends on a low-scoring draw or upset. The ~-209/-240 price offers thin value, so a modest stake is warranted rather than a large one.",correct,True,neither,none,"South Africa's defensive setup as a drag on goal expectancy — they conceded twice, so the cautious 5-3-2 was less effective than I implied when leaning toward a low-scoring margin.","no, the T-30min no-bet was correct in process terms — Mexico won as expected but at ~-240 the price offered no edge, and being right about the outcome doesn't validate a -EV wager.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.66,0.1765999999999999,0.4155154439616658,0.66,1.4,4.6,8.0,0.676,0.2057,0.1183,1,0,team_a_win,25.0,9.999999999999998,True,True,False,-0.016
claude,m02,group,group,Korea Republic,Czechia,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.43,0.27,0.3,team_a_win,30,"The Opta supercomputer rates South Korea favourites at 42.9% vs Czechia's 31.1% with a 26% draw, and Korea's superior attacking talent (Son Heung-min) plus strong unbeaten qualifying form give them an edge in this open group opener. FanDuel's +165 price on Korea implies roughly 38% which is below my ~43% estimate, offering modest positive expected value. I size the stake modestly because Czechia's elite set-piece threat against Korea's three-back system makes a draw or upset genuinely live.",correct,True,neither,"none — I correctly flagged Czechia's set-piece threat as the realistic path to them scoring, and they did get one, consistent with a 2-1 outcome","the BTTS-No/under signals, which I cited as a reason to trim the stake but which didn't materialize since this was a 2-1, both-teams-scored, over-2.5 result","no — Korea at +155 with my ~42% estimate was a sound positive-EV value pick that landed, and the modest stake was appropriate given the genuine closeness of the match",0.8,0,team_a_win,True,0.43,0.4878000000000001,0.843970070294529,0.43,2.55,3.15,2.85,0.3698,0.2994,0.3309,2,0,team_a_win,30.0,46.49999999999999,True,True,False,0.0601999999999999
claude,m03,group,group,USA,Paraguay,4,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.46,0.29,0.25,no_bet,0,"USA are modest home favorites (~-105/+105 ML, Paraguay +310, draw ~+240) with home-crowd advantage at SoFi and no reported injuries, but they've lost 3 of their last 4 while Alfaro's Paraguay arrive unbeaten in 8 (wins over Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay) with an elite defensive structure, though key man Julio Enciso is an injury doubt. My estimates (USA ~46%, draw ~29%, Paraguay ~25%) land almost exactly on the vig-adjusted market consensus, so there is no exploitable edge in any outcome. With no edge, the expected-value-maximizing decision is to pass rather than pay the bookmaker's margin.",partially_correct,False,neither,I underweighted USA's home-crowd ceiling and the chance that Paraguay's defense-first approach would break down decisively once they conceded; a 4-1 scoreline implies USA's attacking quality was higher than the market or I credited.,"I gave too much weight to Paraguay's unbeaten run and defensive solidity, and to USA's poor recent form (3 losses in 4), treating the matchup as nearly a coin flip when the talent and venue gap was larger than priced.","no, because the outcome was correct directionally but the market was efficiently priced and a 4-1 result was a low-probability tail even conditional on a USA win, so a 'no_bet' on a fairly-priced favorite was still the disciplined call ex ante.",0.6,0,team_a_win,True,0.46,0.4382,0.7765287894989963,0.46,1.9523809523809523,3.4,4.2,0.4904,0.2816,0.228,3,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m04,group,group,Canada,Bosnia and Herzegovina,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.55,0.27,0.18,team_a_win,35,"Canada are strong home favorites (-120 market odds, Opta supercomputer 58.3% win probability), unbeaten in their last eight matches with six clean sheets and only one loss in 28 games at BMO Field. Bosnia upset Italy to qualify but sit ~34 places below Canada in FIFA rankings and have drawn five straight in regulation. Market price (~1.83 decimal) offers modest positive expected value against my 0.55 estimate, warranting a measured stake while accounting for Canada's history of zero World Cup wins and possible absence of Alphonso Davies.",incorrect,True,unlucky,"Bosnia's run of consecutive regulation draws signaled a genuinely stubborn, hard-to-break-down side, which I noted but did not weight enough into the draw probability given a likely low-scoring game.","Home-crowd advantage and Canada's clean-sheet streak, which I leaned on to push the win probability to 0.55 despite Canada's complete lack of any prior World Cup win or draw.","no, the bet had positive expected value at the offered odds and a 27% draw estimate priced the realized outcome reasonably; one losing wager on a well-calibrated edge doesn't invalidate the process.",0.7,0,team_a_win,False,0.27,0.8677999999999999,1.3093333199837622,0.55,1.8333333333333333,3.65,4.7,0.5284,0.2654,0.2061,4,0,team_a_win,35.0,-35.0,True,False,False,0.0216
claude,m05,group,group,Qatar,Switzerland,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.08,0.15,0.77,team_b_win,25,"Switzerland enter in strong unbeaten qualifying form with clearly superior squad depth (Xhaka, Akanji, Embolo, Ndoye), while Qatar have failed to score in roughly four of their last five matches and looked incohesive in pre-tournament friendlies after canceled fixtures. Market consensus (Opta 76%, Kalshi ~81%, bookmaker implied ~78%) aligns tightly with a heavy Swiss favorite; the only restraint is that team_b_win at ~-334 offers thin value, so a modest stake is warranted rather than a large one.",incorrect,True,unlucky,"I noted that tournament openers can be cagey and that Qatar would sit deep to frustrate, but I did not weight Qatar's defensive organization and Switzerland's tendency toward slim, low-scoring margins heavily enough toward an outright draw.","Qatar's prolonged goal drought and incohesive friendlies — I treated their inability to score as more permanent than it was, when a single deep-block plus one moment was enough to claim a point.","no, a 15% draw probability against ~-334 favorite odds still justified a small stake on Switzerland; the result was within the expected variance and one outcome does not invalidate the process.",0.7,2,team_b_win,False,0.15,1.3218,1.8971199848858813,0.77,12.0,6.5,1.2222222222222223,0.079,0.1458,0.7753,5,2,team_b_win,25.0,-25.0,True,False,False,-0.0052999999999999
claude,m06,group,group,Brazil,Morocco,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.58,0.24,0.18,team_a_win,25,"Brazil are clear favorites at roughly -167/-175 (market-implied ~62%), with a deeper, more talented squad under Ancelotti. Morocco are genuinely dangerous (2022 semifinalists, reigning AFCON champions, beat Brazil 2-1 in 2023) with injury concerns to Mazraoui and Rahimi, so I shade slightly below the market and avoid overstaking. The modest stake reflects that Brazil's price offers little value and Morocco's upset potential is real in a tournament opener.",incorrect,True,unlucky,Morocco's defensive organization and ability to frustrate elite attacking sides—the same traits that carried them to the 2022 semifinals were likely to neutralize Brazil's front line in a low-event opener.,"Brazil's individual talent advantage, which matters less in a single tournament opener where rust, pressure, and a disciplined opponent compress the quality gap.","no, because a draw was my second-most-likely outcome at 24% and Brazil winning was correctly the modal scenario; one result doesn't invalidate a probabilistically sound bet, and I appropriately kept the stake small at $25.",0.7,0,team_a_win,False,0.24,0.9464,1.4271163556401458,0.58,1.598802395209581,3.9,5.0,0.5781,0.237,0.1849,6,0,team_a_win,25.0,-25.0,True,False,False,0.0019
claude,m07,group,group,Haiti,Scotland,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.21,0.26,0.53,team_b_win,30,"Opta's supercomputer gives Scotland ~59% and the market lists them around -188/-225, reflecting a clear gap in squad quality (Premier League/UEFA-tested players like McTominay, Adams, Doak). Haiti are the second-lowest ranked nation (83rd) and conceded heavily in qualifying (13 goals, 11.7 xG against), though they showed attacking threat with a 4-0 win over New Zealand. The implied edge favors Scotland, but Haiti's organized block and Scotland's poor record vs the Americas (winless in last 9) cap value, so I stake moderately rather than heavily.",correct,True,neither,"none — I correctly anticipated a tight, low-scoring grind, which the 1-0 scoreline reflects almost exactly (close to the 0-1 several previews projected)","Haiti's attacking upside from the 4-0 New Zealand result; they were kept off the scoresheet, suggesting their qualifying defensive frailties mattered more than their warm-up scoring","no — Scotland win was the value pick, the moderate stake was appropriate given the narrow scoreline showed real margin-of-error, and the result validated both the probabilities and the cautious sizing",0.82,2,team_b_win,True,0.53,0.3326,0.6348782724359695,0.53,6.25,4.75,1.5882352941176472,0.16,0.2105,0.6295,7,2,team_b_win,30.0,17.647058823529417,True,True,False,-0.0994999999999999
claude,m08,group,group,Australia,Türkiye,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.3,0.27,0.43,team_b_win,25,"The market prices Turkey as clear favorites (~-135), backed by superior individual quality (Güler, Yildiz, Çalhanoğlu), recent competitive sharpness against elite opposition (2-2 vs Spain), and a marginally better FIFA ranking, whereas Australia has shown vulnerability against technically superior, pressing teams. The implied probability on Turkey (~57%) feels slightly rich for a single World Cup match, so my estimate sits at 43%, but they remain the rational lean. A modest stake reflects the value edge balanced against the inherent unpredictability of one-off group-stage fixtures.",incorrect,True,unlucky,"Australia's defensive discipline and counterattacking threat were more potent against this specific opponent than I credited; a 2-0 margin suggests Turkey's creative core was effectively neutralized, which I underweighted.","I leaned too heavily on the betting market's framing of Turkey's individual quality (Güler, Yildiz, Çalhanoğlu) translating into match control, rather than weighing how often technical favorites underperform in single tournament fixtures.","no, because the pre-match information genuinely favored Turkey and a single 2-0 loss doesn't invalidate a process that correctly priced them as the rational lean—my 43% on Turkey already reflected real uncertainty.",0.6,2,team_b_win,False,0.3,0.7477999999999999,1.203972804325936,0.43,5.0,3.75,1.7,0.1896,0.2528,0.5576,8,2,team_b_win,25.0,-25.0,True,False,False,-0.1276
claude,m09,group,group,Germany,Curaçao,7,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.92,0.06,0.02,no_bet,0,"Germany (FIFA #10, on a nine-match winning streak) are overwhelming favorites at roughly 1/20 against World Cup debutant Curaçao, the smallest nation ever to qualify and losers of three of their last four. The implied win odds (~95%) offer essentially no value — a $100 stake on Germany returns only ~$3.70 profit — while a Curaçao upset at 100/1 has negligible expected value despite the long price, so the disciplined play is no bet.",correct,True,neither,"I slightly underweighted the margin of victory — a 7-1 scoreline confirms the over-goals markets the previews flagged were the real edge, not the win/draw/loss line I focused on.","I gave nonzero weight to a Curaçao goal as part of a possible 'tighter than expected' narrative from one preview, but the result showed Germany's dominance was total despite Curaçao managing a consolation goal.","no, the no-bet on the match line was still correct given the ~1/20 odds offered no value, though the over-4.5-goals market would have been the genuinely profitable play I correctly identified but didn't act on.",0.85,0,team_a_win,True,0.92,0.0103999999999999,0.083381608939051,0.92,1.04,19.0,34.0,0.9214,0.0504,0.0282,9,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m10,group,group,Netherlands,Japan,2,2,draw,regulation,,0.5,0.27,0.23,team_a_win,30,"Netherlands are clear favorites (Opta supercomputer 49.2%, Kalshi 49%, bookmakers ~+100/+112) anchored by a Van Dijk-led defense that conceded just 4 goals in qualifying, while Japan are missing key attackers Mitoma, Minamino and Endo. The best Netherlands moneyline price (+112 / 2.12 decimal) implies ~47% but my estimate is ~50%, giving a modest positive expected value, so a small-to-moderate stake on the Dutch win is justified rather than the full budget given Japan's genuine counter-attacking form (recent wins over Brazil and England).",incorrect,True,unlucky,"Despite noting Netherlands had not been airtight defensively, I underweighted Japan's ability to score multiple goals even with their attacking absences—their counter-attacking threat materialized into a draw, the exact 'live shared result' the goal markets were signaling.","The strength of the Van Dijk-anchored Dutch defense, which I treated as potentially the best at the tournament but which conceded twice.","no, the bet had positive expected value at the price given my ~50% estimate and a 27% draw probability is an inherent risk I correctly priced; one losing wager on a sound process does not invalidate the decision.",0.7,0,team_a_win,False,0.27,0.8357999999999999,1.3093333199837622,0.5,2.0,3.5,3.6,0.4701,0.2687,0.2612,10,0,team_a_win,30.0,-30.0,True,False,False,0.0298999999999999
claude,m11,group,group,Côte d'Ivoire,Ecuador,1,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.32,0.3,0.38,team_b_win,25,"Ecuador enter unbeaten since a 2024 loss to Brazil, conceded just one goal in qualifying, and are missing nothing significant, while Côte d'Ivoire will be without injured center-back Evan N'Dicka. Both sides are defensively disciplined, so a tight, low-scoring game with high draw equity is likely; Ecuador's superior defensive record and form make them the slight value pick at +151 (implied ~40%) versus my ~38% estimate, so a modest stake is warranted.",incorrect,True,unlucky,"I underweighted Côte d'Ivoire's individual attacking quality on the wings (Diomande, Diallo) being able to convert a single chance even against a watertight defense, and possibly overweighted N'Dicka's absence given their squad depth.",Ecuador's unbeaten run and defensive record—form streaks against weaker opposition don't guarantee they outperform a quality opponent in a single low-event game.,"no, the probabilities were close to a three-way toss-up and Ecuador was a defensible small-value pick; one binary result shouldn't overturn process-sound reasoning.",0.7,2,team_b_win,False,0.32,0.6967999999999999,1.1394342831883648,0.38,3.5,2.75,2.4,0.268,0.3411,0.3909,11,2,team_b_win,25.0,-25.0,True,False,False,-0.0109
claude,m12,group,group,Sweden,Tunisia,5,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.53,0.27,0.2,team_a_win,30,"Sweden's attacking trio of Gyokeres, Isak and Elanga gives them a clear edge over a Tunisia side that conceded heavily in warm-ups (0-1 Austria, 0-5 Belgium) and may be without injured star Hannibal Mejbri. Opta models Sweden at 52.3% vs Tunisia 22.7%, closely matching market odds around -110/-115, so there's little value edge on the moneyline; the small stake reflects a sound but fairly-priced favorite rather than a strong mispricing. Tunisia's disciplined defensive organization and Sweden's chaotic qualifying form keep meaningful draw risk in play.",correct,True,neither,"I underweighted the margin: Sweden's attacking talent and Tunisia's 0-5 collapse vs Belgium signaled blowout potential, yet I still priced meaningful draw risk (0.27) rather than leaning harder into a comfortable Sweden win.","Tunisia's defensive organization and clean CAF qualifying record, which I let inflate the draw probability despite clear evidence their backline crumbled against quality attacks in warm-ups.","no, the team_a_win pick was correct and well-reasoned, though in hindsight a goals or handicap market would have offered better value given the lopsided final score.",0.8,0,team_a_win,True,0.53,0.3338,0.6348782724359695,0.53,1.9,3.4,4.333333333333334,0.5007,0.2798,0.2195,12,0,team_a_win,30.0,27.0,True,True,False,0.0292999999999999
claude,m13,group,group,Spain,Cabo Verde,0,0,draw,regulation,,0.82,0.13,0.05,no_bet,0,"Spain (FIFA #2, reigning Euro champions, 30 matches unbeaten) are heavy favorites at roughly -1100 to -1400 ML against debutants Cabo Verde (#67), implying ~85%+ win probability with no value left for a bettor. Although Yamal and Nico Williams may be eased back from hamstring injuries, Spain's squad depth still dwarfs Cabo Verde's, but the priced-in odds offer no edge and the draw/upset paths are too thin to stake. Cabo Verde have scored well recently (10 goals in last 5), yet face a far stronger opponent, so I pass rather than bet into a no-value favorite.",incorrect,False,neither,"World Cup openers are often cagey, low-scoring affairs, and a heavy favorite easing back injured key attackers (Yamal, Nico Williams) can struggle to break down a deep, motivated debutant defense parking the bus.","Spain's overall quality gap and unbeaten streak, which I converted into an 82% win probability without enough discount for opening-match caution and finishing variance against a packed defense.","no, my no_bet decision was correct on a no-value favorite, and a 0-0 draw vindicates avoiding the team_a_win stake the odds were tempting toward.",0.7,0,team_a_win,False,0.13,1.4318,2.0402208285265546,0.82,1.09891196834817,14.29,25.0,0.8922,0.0686,0.0392,13,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m14,group,group,IR Iran,New Zealand,2,2,draw,regulation,,0.52,0.27,0.21,team_a_win,30,"Iran enter on a three-game winning run with superior tournament experience and a clear quality edge through Taremi, aligning with the Opta supercomputer's 53.8% win probability versus New Zealand's 20.4%. New Zealand are the lowest-ranked side in the field, have won just one of their last 11 games, and have never won a World Cup match, though their organization and Wood's aerial threat give them a real chance to frustrate a logistically-disrupted Iran. A modest stake reflects solid value on Iran without overcommitting given Iran's off-field disruptions and patchy attacking form against compact defenses.",incorrect,True,unlucky,"I underweighted New Zealand's set-piece threat through Chris Wood, which was repeatedly flagged as their clearest path to goal and likely produced their two strikes despite their poor general form.",I gave too much weight to Iran's three-game winning run and tournament experience while underplaying the concrete warning signs of rust from their domestic league suspension and patchy scoring against organized defenses.,"no, the draw probability I assigned (27%) was reasonable and a single 2-2 result doesn't invalidate Iran being the correct favorite; the stake was appropriately modest given the acknowledged disruptions.",0.7,0,team_a_win,False,0.27,0.8473999999999999,1.3093333199837622,0.52,1.8333333333333333,3.4,4.75,0.5194,0.2801,0.2005,14,0,team_a_win,30.0,-30.0,True,False,False,0.0006
claude,m15,group,group,Saudi Arabia,Uruguay,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.14,0.21,0.65,team_b_win,25,"Uruguay are heavy favorites (Opta supercomputer ~64.7%, bet365 -200), sitting 45 FIFA places above Saudi Arabia with a vastly superior squad led by Núñez and Valverde, while Saudi Arabia are in poor form (one win in seven). The main risks are Bielsa's low-scoring tendency and Uruguay's defensive injuries, so I value Uruguay at roughly -200 odds (implied ~0.65) with no edge to overbet — a moderate stake is justified. The draw at +333 carries some live equity given Saudi Arabia's deep-block approach, capping how confident the bet should be.",incorrect,True,unlucky,"I underweighted how effectively Saudi Arabia's deep-block, frustrate-and-counter setup could neutralize Uruguay, combined with Bielsa's persistent inability to have his sides score more than once per game—both signals I noted but didn't fully price in.","The raw squad-quality and FIFA-ranking gap, which matters less in a single low-event match where a disciplined underdog can hold a favorite to one goal.","no, the 25% Uruguay-win stake was reasonable expected value at -200 given a genuine ~65% edge, and a single adverse outcome doesn't invalidate the process—though the draw's +333 live equity I flagged is exactly what hit.",0.7,2,team_b_win,False,0.21,1.0662,1.5606477482646683,0.65,8.33,3.8,1.4716981132075473,0.113,0.2476,0.6394,15,2,team_b_win,25.0,-25.0,True,False,False,0.0106
claude,m16,group,group,Belgium,Egypt,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.58,0.25,0.17,team_a_win,35,"Belgium are unbeaten in 13 (5-0 over Tunisia in their final warm-up), top a deeper squad with De Bruyne, Doku and Courtois, and sit well above Egypt in quality, though Egypt's Salah/Marmoush transition threat and Belgium's shaky defense keep a draw live. Market consensus (Kalshi ~61% Belgium, bet365 -150) aligns with my read, so I back Belgium but stake conservatively given the value is roughly fair rather than a clear edge. Egypt's organized, counter-heavy setup and Belgium's defensive vulnerabilities make an outright Egypt win the least likely outcome.",incorrect,True,unlucky,I underweighted how effectively Egypt's compact double pivot could neutralize De Bruyne and how Salah/Marmoush in transition could exploit Belgium's defense for a goal—exactly the risk I named but priced too low.,"Belgium's 13-match unbeaten run and 5-0 Tunisia rout, which were partly inflated by weak opposition and didn't reflect their genuine defensive fragility against a quality counter-attacking side.","no, the 58% Belgium win probability and 25% draw I assigned were reasonable, my stake was appropriately conservative, and a draw landing in a quarter-likelihood outcome doesn't invalidate the process.",0.75,0,team_a_win,False,0.25,0.9278,1.3862943611198906,0.58,1.6451612903225803,3.85,5.25,0.5745,0.2455,0.18,16,0,team_a_win,35.0,-35.0,True,False,False,0.0054999999999999
claude,m17,group,group,Austria,Jordan,3,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.67,0.21,0.12,draw,15,"Austria are clear favorites (market ~ -300, ~70%) with the deeper, more experienced squad, Rangnick's pressing and a strong defensive record, while Jordan are missing top qualifying scorer Al-Naimat and will likely sit deep on their World Cup debut. I price Austria slightly below market because World Cup openers tend to be cagey and Jordan's compact 3-4-3/5-3-2 counter setup is built to frustrate, which nudges the draw up. The favorite at -300 offers no value, but the draw at ~+425 looks marginally underpriced, so a small disciplined stake there.",correct,True,neither,"I underweighted how decisively Austria's squad and attacking superiority would translate into a comfortable multi-goal win, especially with Jordan's forward line gutted by the loss of top scorer Al-Naimat leaving them unable to punish.","The 'World Cup opener will be cagey/low-scoring' narrative and Jordan's ability to frustrate by sitting deep, which led me to inflate the draw probability above the market and bet on it.","yes, I'd drop the draw stake since it was a contrarian lean against an efficient market with no real edge, and either no-bet or back the favorite.",0.8,0,team_a_win,True,0.67,0.1673999999999999,0.4004775665971252,0.67,1.3846153846153846,4.7,8.0,0.6813,0.2007,0.1179,17,0,team_a_win,15.0,-15.0,True,False,True,0.0093
claude,m18,group,group,France,Senegal,3,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.63,0.21,0.16,team_b_win,12,"France are clear favorites with elite attacking depth (Mbappé, Dembélé, Olise) and strong form, and models/markets cluster them around 63-68% (Opta 64.8%, Kalshi 68%, devigged books ~65%). But the favorite is priced at heavy juice (-210/-220) and the draw at ~+340, leaving both negative-EV against my estimates; only Senegal — unbeaten in qualifying, defensively solid (5 clean sheets in last 7), and dangerous on the counter through Mané versus France's attacking fullbacks and leaky back line — offers marginal long-shot value at +600 relative to my ~16% read, so a small disciplined stake on the underdog is the only positive-EV side.",partially_correct,True,neither,"I underweighted how decisively France's superior attacking class would convert chance volume into multiple goals; Senegal scored as I expected, but the quality gap produced a comfortable 3-1 rather than the tight one-goal game I pictured.","The 'leaky French back line / 2002 upset / tournament-opener variance' narrative, which inflated Senegal to 16% and, worse, justified a contrarian long-shot bet.","yes — the Senegal edge (16% vs ~14% implied) was within estimation noise and Kelly sized it near zero (~$2), so the disciplined call was no_bet rather than a $12 stake, and backing the favorite was -EV behind the juice.",0.8,0,team_a_win,True,0.63,0.2066,0.4620354595965587,0.63,1.4545454545454546,4.5,7.0,0.6532,0.2111,0.1357,18,0,team_a_win,12.0,-12.0,True,False,True,0.0243
claude,m19,group,group,Iraq,Norway,1,4,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.08,0.15,0.77,no_bet,0,"Norway are clear favourites: a flawless UEFA qualifying campaign (8/8 wins, 37 goals, 5 conceded), Haaland (16 qualifying goals), Ødegaard and Sørloth, versus an Iraq side that qualified last via a playoff and is set up by Graham Arnold to sit deep and frustrate. My ~0.77 Norway estimate matches the Opta supercomputer (77.4%) and the de-vigged market, but it sits below the bookmaker break-even for every outcome (Norway -450/-525 implies ~82-84%, draw ~16%, Iraq ~8%), so none of the three offers positive expected value. With no edge over an efficient line, the disciplined call is to pass.",correct,True,neither,"Norway's attacking ceiling in this specific game — my reasoning hinted at a low-scoring 1-0/2-0 win, while their qualifying scoring rate (4.6/game) should have flagged a multi-goal margin as very plausible.","Iraq's defensive resilience under Arnold — I leaned on the 'deep block frustrates the favourite' narrative, but Norway's quality produced a comfortable rout rather than the tight grind I implied.","no — no_bet was process-correct because Norway's de-vigged price (~82%) still exceeded my ~77% estimate, and one favourite winning doesn't retroactively create the edge that was absent.",0.8,2,team_b_win,True,0.77,0.0817999999999999,0.2613647641344075,0.77,13.0,7.0,1.2,0.073,0.1357,0.7913,19,2,team_b_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m20,group,group,Argentina,Algeria,3,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.7000000000000001,0.19,0.11,no_bet,0,"Argentina (defending champions, Messi/Alvarez/Lautaro, 7-game win streak) are heavy favorites over a competent but clearly weaker Algeria; my estimate (~70/19/11) matches the no-vig market almost exactly (DraftKings/FanDuel ~ -255/-270, Kalshi 71/20/11). Because there's no meaningful gap between my probabilities and the prices, no outcome offers positive expected value — the favorite's payout is too small (-255 = ~3.9% return on a 70% chance) and the longshots carry the usual favorite-longshot bias. Kelly sizing is effectively zero or negative across all three options, so the disciplined choice is no bet.",correct,True,neither,I slightly underweighted how total Argentina's control would be — a 3-0 clean sheet sits at the dominant end of my distribution — though one match is thin evidence and doesn't really prove miscalibration.,"The upset/draw risk: ~30% combined on draw-or-Algeria partly reflected Messi's hamstring management and the 2022 Saudi-opener cautionary tale, neither of which materialized.","no — the result confirms the favorite but the prices were still efficient with no positive-EV edge, and changing my call based on one outcome would be results-oriented thinking.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.7000000000000001,0.1381999999999999,0.3566749439387323,0.7000000000000001,1.4081632653061225,4.76,9.09,0.6893,0.2039,0.1068,20,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m21,group,group,Portugal,Congo DR,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.75,0.17,0.08,no_bet,0,"Portugal are elite and in excellent form (one loss in their last 13), while DR Congo are 46th-ranked debutants returning after 52 years, so a Portugal win is clearly most likely. However, the market already prices Portugal at roughly -360 (implied ~0.74 no-vig), which matches my own estimate, so the money line offers no positive expected value; the draw (+460) and Congo (+1000) are also fairly priced against my numbers. With no edge on any of the three outcomes, the disciplined decision is to pass.",partially_correct,True,neither,"The elevated base rate of cagey, low-scoring World Cup openers where heavy favorites drop points, plus the difficulty of breaking down a motivated, physically strong debutant defense parking the bus.","Portugal's gaudy recent scoring form (the nine-goal qualifier and over-2.5 friendlies), which I let imply a comfortable win rather than treating tournament-opener conditions as a dampener.","no, my no_bet call was vindicated since a Portugal money-line stake at -360 would have lost and the draw confirmed there was no value in the favorite.",0.7,0,team_a_win,False,0.17,1.2577999999999998,1.7719568419318752,0.75,1.2702702702702702,5.6,12.0,0.7504,0.1702,0.0794,21,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m22,group,group,England,Croatia,4,2,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.56,0.25,0.19,team_a_win,35,"England enter as clear favorites (~-140), riding 11 straight competitive wins and a perfect 8-for-8 qualifying campaign with zero goals conceded, and have beaten this aging, out-of-form Croatia side in their last two meetings. My ~56% estimate aligns with both the Opta supercomputer (55.9%) and the de-vigged market, so there is little pure value, but England's dominant form supports a modest stake while the live draw/upset risk against a tournament-savvy Croatia caps confidence.",correct,True,neither,"I underweighted how open and high-scoring the game would be—Croatia scored twice, contradicting the consensus 'low-scoring, controlled night' lean I anchored on given England's qualifying clean-sheet record.","Croatia's reputation for keeping games tight and the draw/upset risk, which made me hedge my stake and cap confidence even though England's attacking quality produced a comfortable 2-goal margin.","no, England on the moneyline was the correct and most defensible pick; in hindsight the over-2.5/both-teams-to-score markets some previews flagged would also have hit, but my core 1X2 bet won.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.56,0.2922,0.579818495252942,0.56,1.6993006993006992,3.65,5.3,0.5599,0.2606,0.1795,22,0,team_a_win,35.0,24.47552447552447,True,True,False,0.0001000000000001
claude,m23,group,group,Ghana,Panama,1,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.36,0.27,0.37,team_b_win,20,"There's a sharp split between markets and models: bet365 makes Ghana slight favorites (+100 / Panama +260), but Opta's supercomputer gives Panama 45.2% vs Ghana's 29.6%, and Panama is ranked 34th to Ghana's 73rd while arriving in far better form (undefeated qualifying, recent Gold Cup final and Nations League runner-up) against a Ghana side that lost six of its last seven. I treat the game as near a coin flip, with Ghana's individual talent (Semenyo, Williams, Partey) offsetting Panama's structural edge, which leaves Panama at +260 as the clear value side; I stake modestly because the betting market disagreeing with me is a real caution flag.",partially_correct,True,neither,"I underweighted the sharp betting market's signal — it favored Ghana despite worse ranking/form, and that information (Ghana's individual attacking quality translating to goals) proved decisive.","I leaned too hard on the Opta supercomputer's Panama projection and the FIFA ranking/recent-form gap, treating the model-vs-market divergence as a value edge when the market was better informed.","yes — I'd defer more to the sharp market favorite and either pass or stake smaller, though I'd caution against over-updating since a single one-goal loss is weak evidence against a process that was +EV under my model.",0.6,2,team_b_win,False,0.36,0.6194000000000001,1.0216512475319814,0.37,2.35,3.1,3.2,0.4012,0.3041,0.2946,23,0,team_a_win,20.0,-20.0,True,False,True,0.0754
claude,m24,group,group,Uzbekistan,Colombia,1,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.13,0.21,0.66,team_a_win,15,"Colombia is the deserved heavy favorite — superior squad (Díaz, James, Suárez), CONMEBOL pedigree vs. World Cup debutants — and my 66% Colombia win estimate matches the de-vigged market (Opta 62%, Dimers 68%, Kalshi ~72% pre-vig). Colombia and the draw therefore offer no edge after the bookmaker margin. The only identifiable value is Uzbekistan at the best-available +800 (≈11.1% implied), which sits slightly below my ~13% estimate; their compact 3-4-2-1 under Cannavaro plus the Azteca's ~2,250m altitude, which blunts a favorite's tempo, justify a small upset-value stake despite high variance.",partially_correct,True,neither,Colombia's attacking quality (Díaz/James/Suárez) was decisive enough to overcome the altitude and shaky warm-up form I leaned on; a 3-1 confirms the class gap dominated the conditions.,"The Azteca altitude 'leveler' and Colombia's slow friendlies — these were the basis for nudging Uzbekistan to 13% and a value bet, and they did not materially close the gap.","yes — I'd take no_bet, since my Uzbekistan edge rested on a ~13% vs ~11% gap that sat within my own estimation noise and on speculative leveling factors.",0.8,2,team_b_win,True,0.66,0.1765999999999999,0.4155154439616658,0.66,8.5,4.5,1.4,0.1116,0.2108,0.6776,24,2,team_b_win,15.0,-15.0,True,False,True,0.0184
claude,m25,group,group,Mexico,Korea Republic,1,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.47,0.28,0.25,no_bet,0,"Mexico are deserved narrow home favorites given their four-game winning run, a clean-sheet opener, a perfect World Cup H2H vs Korea, and a fervent Guadalajara crowd, though Montes is suspended and Quiñones is a doubt. Korea's attacking quality (Son, Lee Kang-in, Hwang In-beom) keeps it close, consistent with Opta's ~49% Mexico read and a roughly evens market (Mexico +100, Draw +240, Korea ~+330). My probabilities track the de-vigged market almost exactly, so after the bookmaker margin no outcome offers a clear edge—hence no bet.",correct,True,neither,"I underweighted Mexico's defensive solidity without Montes—Álvarez dropping into the backline held a clean sheet, so the shutout was firmer than my 'open game' lean implied.",Korea's attacking threat and the 'both teams to score' narrative; I gave Son/Lee Kang-in/Hwang slightly too much credit given Korea failed to score.,"no, the favorite winning a tight game by one goal is exactly the efficient-market scenario I modeled, and a single result doesn't reveal an edge I could have exploited.",0.72,0,team_a_win,True,0.47,0.4218,0.7550225842780328,0.47,2.04,3.45,4.17,0.4807,0.2842,0.2351,25,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m26,group,group,Canada,Qatar,6,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.7100000000000001,0.18,0.11,no_bet,0,"Canada are strong favourites at home in Vancouver (FIFA 30th vs 56th), with the Opta supercomputer giving them 72.9% and bookmakers pricing them around 2/7; Qatar were heavily outplayed by Switzerland and are winless in seven. My ~71% estimate for a Canada win sits below the ~78% break-even implied by 2/7, so backing the favourite is negative EV, while any edge on the draw or a Qatar upset is too thin and odds-dependent to claim confidently. The disciplined play in a fairly priced market is no bet.",correct,True,neither,"I underweighted Qatar's defensive fragility — they had already conceded 26 shots and 3.2 xG to Switzerland, so the gap was wide enough that a blowout, not just a win, was a real possibility; my 18% draw and 11% Qatar-win mass was likely too generous.","Canada's nervy, wasteful opener against Bosnia and Qatar's 'plucky frustrator' narrative from their lucky late draw — I treated Canada's finishing problems and Qatar's resilience as more durable than they were.","no — backing a ~2/7 favourite was still thin/negative EV by my own framework, and resisting outcome bias, the no-bet was process-sound; the real value, if any, sat in goals/handicap markets I didn't price.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.7100000000000001,0.1285999999999999,0.3424903089467758,0.7100000000000001,1.2597402597402598,5.75,9.75,0.7417,0.1625,0.0958,26,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m27,group,group,Switzerland,Bosnia and Herzegovina,4,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.58,0.27,0.15,draw,20,"Switzerland are deserved favorites (Opta 61.6%, Kalshi 61/24/16) given the deeper squad, settled spine and territorial dominance over Qatar, but they scored just once from ~26 shots and have one win in their last six, while Bosnia have drawn each of their last several competitive games (mostly 1-1) behind a disciplined low block. That combination of Swiss wastefulness in front of goal plus Bosnia's extreme draw tendency makes the draw look modestly underpriced versus the ~24% market line, so I take a small value position on the draw rather than the efficiently-priced Swiss win. Low conviction and a marginal edge keep the stake small.",partially_correct,True,neither,"I underweighted the high likelihood of positive finishing regression for Switzerland — a side that takes 26 shots and 10 on target rarely stays wasteful two games running, and a clinical day was arguably the most predictable outcome on the card.","Bosnia's recent run of 1-1 draws — I treated a small-sample scoreline pattern as predictive and let it pull the draw above the market consensus, ignoring the clear quality gap over a full 90 minutes plus their defensive doubts (Kolasinac/Celik).","yes — I would have backed Switzerland or passed, since betting the draw actively contradicted my own forecast that a Swiss win was by far the most likely single outcome.",0.8,0,team_a_win,True,0.58,0.2718,0.5447271754416722,0.58,1.57,4.0,5.8,0.6013,0.236,0.1628,27,0,team_a_win,20.0,-20.0,True,False,True,0.034
claude,m28,group,group,Czechia,South Africa,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.57,0.23,0.2,team_a_win,30,"Both teams lost their openers and treat this as must-win, but Czechia (ranked ~40th, 9 wins in last 13, no injuries, set-piece threat via Krejci/Schick/Coufal) holds a clear edge over a depleted South Africa that is winless in six, blunt in attack, and missing suspended midfielders Sithole and Zwane after a nine-man loss to Mexico. My Czechia win estimate (~0.57) sits just above Opta's 54.9% and the de-vigged market (~54%), giving thin value on the -130 line, so I stake modestly rather than heavily; key risks are Czechia's weak open-play creation and a cagey low-scoring game (Under 2.5 is the consensus angle). The draw (~26% de-vig) and South Africa (+370) offer no value against my numbers.",partially_correct,True,neither,"I underweighted how a deep-sitting, depleted South Africa could neutralize Czechia's set-piece-reliant attack; given Czechia's poor open-play creation (which I noted but didn't price aggressively enough), the draw equilibrium deserved more than 23%.","South Africa's suspensions and poor form as a clean Czechia edge — losing two attacking midfielders likely made Bafana more compact and defensively solid in a low block, which suited a draw rather than handing Czechia control.","yes — at 0.57 vs a ~0.565 breakeven the true edge over the -130 line was negligible, so disciplined Kelly sizing meant a much smaller stake or no bet; this is a process correction, not result-chasing.",0.7,0,team_a_win,False,0.23,0.9578,1.4696759700589417,0.57,1.8,3.7,4.5,0.5301,0.2579,0.212,28,0,team_a_win,30.0,-30.0,True,False,False,0.0398999999999999
claude,m29,group,group,USA,Australia,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.6,0.22,0.18,no_bet,0,"USA are home co-hosts who dominated Paraguay 4-1 and sit as roughly -165 favorites (~60% de-vigged), while Australia's 2-0 win over Turkiye flattered a side that was outplayed (Turkey ~72% possession, 30-9 shots) and rescued by keeper Patrick Beach, who is likely to regress against a deeper US attack. My probabilities essentially track the de-vigged market, so after the bookmaker margin every outcome sits below its break-even (USA needs ~0.62 at -165, draw ~0.23, Australia ~0.20) and none offers positive expected value. With no identifiable edge in an efficient sharp market, the disciplined decision is to pass.",correct,True,neither,"I slightly underweighted how decisively the quality gap would show — USA controlled the game and Australia rarely threatened, so their opener win over Türkiye flattered them even more than I had already discounted.","The draw probability (0.22): I leaned on Australia's deep-defending, single-goal-margin, low-scoring profile to inflate the draw tail, but a comfortable 2-0 suggests the draw was less live than I priced.","no, the no_bet call was based on negative expected value at -165 given a ~0.60 estimate below the ~0.62 break-even, and switching because a favorite won would be outcome/resulting bias rather than a process improvement.",0.8,0,team_a_win,True,0.6,0.2408,0.5108256237659907,0.6,1.625,4.2,5.2,0.5884,0.2277,0.1839,29,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m30,group,group,Türkiye,Paraguay,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.5,0.28,0.22,team_a_win,30,"Türkiye are favorites by both the market (~-105 ML, implied ~50%) and the Opta supercomputer (49.4% vs Paraguay's 23.7%); despite losing 2-0 to Australia they dominated (30 shots, 70% possession) and simply lacked finishing, and Kenan Yıldız returning to the starting XI should sharpen an attack facing a Paraguay side that collapsed 4-1 to the USA. The edge is thin because the price already reflects this and Paraguay's counter-attacking setup mirrors the Australia approach that beat Türkiye, so I'm staking conservatively.",incorrect,True,neither,"Türkiye's finishing/conversion failure was a persistent structural weakness, not variance due to regress positively — two straight games of high shot volume and zero goals; relatedly, Paraguay's defensive solidity (their qualifying identity) was the real signal, not their 4-1 opener.","Türkiye's territorial dominance (possession and raw shot count) and the Kenan Yıldız return as predictors of goals, while treating Paraguay's heavy loss to the USA as proof of weakness rather than an outlier against a strong host.","yes — my own estimate had Türkiye at 0.50, below the ~0.512 breakeven implied by the -105 line, so there was no positive expected value and the coherent play was no_bet rather than letting a directional narrative override my own numbers.",0.7,0,team_a_win,False,0.22,0.9368,1.5141277326297755,0.5,2.05,3.3,3.8,0.4628,0.2875,0.2497,30,0,team_a_win,30.0,-30.0,True,False,False,0.0372
claude,m31,group,group,Brazil,Haiti,3,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.85,0.11,0.04,draw,15,"Brazil are overwhelming favorites (5-time champions, -800 market price; H2H wins of 7-1 and 6-0 vs Haiti, ranked 82nd) and the most likely winner by far, but the -800 line offers no betting value as it requires ~89% to break even, slightly above my 85% estimate. Brazil's shaky 1-1 opener vs Morocco (saved late by Alisson) and an 'ageing' squad give the draw a marginally higher chance than the +1200 best price implies (~8% vs my 11%), so a small value stake on the draw is the only positive-EV play, sized modestly given high model uncertainty and the low base rate of Brazil drawing a minnow.",partially_correct,True,neither,How decisively a top side converts dominance into goals against a minnow when it needs points—a comfortable 3-0 implies the draw was even less live than my 11%.,"Brazil's shaky 1-1 draw with Morocco and the 'ageing/frailties' narrative, which I treated as evidence the draw was viable when it was mostly a reflection of Morocco's quality, not Brazil's weakness vs weaker opposition.","yes—I would pass (no_bet) rather than stake on the draw, since the perceived +EV was within model error and the favorite-vs-minnow dynamic argued for a lower draw probability than I assigned.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.85,0.0362,0.1625189294977749,0.85,1.125,9.5,20.0,0.8513,0.1008,0.0479,31,0,team_a_win,15.0,-15.0,True,False,True,0.0092
claude,m32,group,group,Scotland,Morocco,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.18,0.27,0.55,no_bet,0,"Morocco (Team B) are clear favorites: a top-10 side and 2022 semifinalists who matched Brazil in a 1-1 opener, while Scotland ground out a 1-0 win over Haiti but lack attacking quality against elite defenses. Multiple supercomputers (Opta 54.2%, others 54.8-58%) and the de-vigged market (Morocco ~56%, draw ~27%, Scotland ~18%) cluster almost exactly on my estimate, leaving no exploitable edge in any 1X2 market. Known factors like both teams' low-scoring profiles and Morocco's keeper/defender injuries are already priced in, so betting into the vig here is negative-EV — discipline says pass.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, the result confirmed Morocco as rightful favorites and a tight 1-0 was the modal scoreline I expected, so passing into an efficient market with no edge remains the disciplined call.",0.82,2,team_b_win,True,0.55,0.3077999999999999,0.5978370007556204,0.55,5.0,3.6,1.7272727272727273,0.1893,0.2629,0.5479,32,2,team_b_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m33,group,group,Tunisia,Japan,0,4,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.14,0.24,0.62,draw,10,"Japan are clear and deserved favourites (Opta ~61% win, market ~8/15) after a resilient 2-2 draw with the Netherlands, while Tunisia are in crisis: heaviest-ever WC loss (5-1 to Sweden), a mid-tournament manager change to Renard, and one win in eight. But that favourite price offers no value, so I avoid backing Japan; the small edge sits on the draw, where Japan's missing Kubo (knee), their poor World Cup clean-sheet record, and Renard's likely conservative reset slightly nudge my number above the ~10/3 line, justifying only a modest stake.",correct,True,neither,"I underweighted how Tunisia's must-win approach—committing bodies forward—would leave them exposed to Japan's counters, making a decisive Japan win far more likely than the grinding draw I implied; a 4-0 rout shows the quality/morale gap was wider than my 62/24/14 split priced.","Japan's missing Kubo and their poor World Cup clean-sheet record, which I used to justify draw value—Japan's depth absorbed the absence and they kept a clean sheet anyway.","yes, I'd skip the draw—it carried only noise-level edge that my own Kelly check flagged, and the must-win dynamic actually argued for a decisive Japan win, so no_bet or a Japan line was the rational play.",0.82,2,team_b_win,True,0.62,0.2216,0.4780358009429998,0.62,6.5,4.0,1.5333333333333332,0.1457,0.2367,0.6176,33,2,team_b_win,10.0,-10.0,True,False,True,0.0032999999999999
claude,m34,group,group,Ecuador,Curaçao,0,0,draw,regulation,,0.86,0.09,0.05,no_bet,0,"Ecuador are heavy favorites with a top-tier defense (Caicedo, Pacho, Hincapié; just 5 goals conceded in 18 qualifiers) against a Curaçao side that shipped 19 goals in its last 5 games including a 7-1 loss to Germany, so I estimate Ecuador ~86% to win. However, the moneyline is juiced to roughly -900/-1000 (≈90% implied), which exceeds my win estimate, leaving no positive-expected-value edge; the draw (+1000) and Curaçao (+2000/+2200) are priced about fairly or worse, and Ecuador's low-scoring, scrappy style plus a stormy Kansas City forecast add downside risk. With no genuine edge versus efficient pricing, the disciplined choice is to pass.",incorrect,False,neither,"I underweighted the draw despite explicitly naming the factors that produce one—Ecuador's chronically low-scoring style (Under in 12 of 14), their blank against Ivory Coast, and storm-affected scrappy conditions; 9% was too low for a defensively-minded favorite trying to break down a team that would sit deep.","I leaned too hard on Curaçao's 7-1 collapse and -19 goal swing as predictive, when that thrashing came from Curaçao chasing the game against Germany—against a passive, possession-heavy Ecuador with no urgency to open up early, the quality gap didn't translate into goals.","no—passing on the juiced ~-1000 favorite was the right discipline and the draw confirms it was overpriced; chasing the +1000 draw purely because it landed would be hindsight bias, though I should have calibrated the draw higher (~15%), which would have made it a genuine consideration.",0.7,0,team_a_win,False,0.09,1.5701999999999998,2.407945608651872,0.86,1.1,10.0,21.0,0.8603,0.0946,0.0451,34,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m35,group,group,Germany,Côte d'Ivoire,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.57,0.24,0.19,draw,10,"Germany are deserved favorites (~-180, 7-1 demolition of Curaçao, 10-match win streak), but the market price implies ~62% while Opta's supercomputer gives them only 44.4%, suggesting recency bias inflated their line. Côte d'Ivoire are a genuine side (recent friendly wins over France and South Korea, organized under Faé) and Germany have failed to keep a clean sheet in seven straight World Cup games, giving the draw at ~+350 a small positive-EV edge versus my 24% estimate. Stake is kept low to reflect a thin, market-dependent edge.",partially_correct,True,neither,"That Germany's attacking depth lets them win comfortably without a clean sheet, so conceding to Côte d'Ivoire never threatened the result the way my draw thesis assumed.","Germany's seven-game clean-sheet drought and Opta's conservative 44.4%, which I read as a path to a draw rather than just a path to conceding while still winning.","yes, I would have passed (no_bet) since my draw edge was thin and rested on fading an efficient market on the strength of one conservative model plus a stat, which wasn't enough to justify acting.",0.6,0,team_a_win,True,0.57,0.2786,0.5621189181535413,0.57,1.5494505494505495,4.7,5.5,0.6206,0.2046,0.1748,35,0,team_a_win,10.0,-10.0,True,False,True,0.0353999999999999
claude,m36,group,group,Netherlands,Sweden,5,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.53,0.24,0.23,no_bet,0,"Netherlands have the deeper, more talented squad (De Jong, Gakpo, Depay, Van Dijk) and are full-strength bar Q. Timber, but their 2-2 vs Japan exposed real defensive frailty that Sweden's in-form Isak–Gyökeres strike pair can exploit, so I shade slightly toward Sweden/draw versus reputation. My de-vigged probabilities sit essentially on the market (NED ~-138/-155, draw ~+300, SWE ~+290/+350), leaving no reliable positive-EV edge at consensus prices, so the disciplined call is to pass.",correct,False,neither,"Sweden were the side with the fragile defense; their 5-1 over a poor, manager-sacking Tunisia masked a backline that the Netherlands' deeper attack (Gakpo, Depay, Summerville) would dismantle.","Sweden's attacking 'momentum' and the Isak-Gyokeres threat against Dutch defensive frailty, which led me to wrongly shade probability toward Sweden/draw and away from the market favorite.","no, no_bet remained sound against a near-efficient line, and one lopsided result is too thin to justify lowering my betting threshold, though I would stop shading against the market favorite.",0.7,0,team_a_win,True,0.53,0.3314,0.6348782724359695,0.53,1.7272727272727273,3.8,4.75,0.55,0.25,0.2,36,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m37,group,group,New Zealand,Egypt,1,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.18,0.23,0.59,no_bet,0,"Egypt (Team B) are clear favorites: Opta's supercomputer gives them 58.5% vs New Zealand's 18.5%, aligning with market prices (Egypt ~8/13, NZ ~9/2, draw ~10/3). Egypt's settled low-block defense (two goals conceded in six) and Salah/Marmoush attack outclass a leaky NZ side that has lost 9 of 12 and gone 12 games without a clean sheet. My estimates match the de-vigged market almost exactly, leaving no positive expected value at the available prices, so the rational play is no bet.",correct,True,neither,"I underweighted the margin: New Zealand's documented defensive frailty (12 games without a clean sheet, leaky transitions) let Egypt win comfortably rather than narrowly, so I leaned too much toward a tight/low-scoring game.","The 'closer than the odds suggest' narrative around NZ's set-piece threat and belief after the Iran draw, which nudged my draw probability slightly high.","no, the no_bet call was correct on expected-value grounds since prices were fair, and a single confirming result does not retroactively create an edge.",0.72,2,team_b_win,True,0.59,0.2534,0.527632742082372,0.59,5.5,4.0,1.6,0.172,0.2366,0.5914,37,2,team_b_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m38,group,group,Uruguay,Cabo Verde,2,2,draw,regulation,,0.65,0.22,0.13,no_bet,0,"Uruguay are clear favorites (ranked 17th vs 67th, more squad depth and firepower), and my estimate aligns closely with the Opta supercomputer (65.2% Uruguay / 21% draw / 13.8% Cabo Verde) and Kalshi market (67/23/11). Because my probabilities essentially match the efficient market and bookmaker prices (~1.45 / implied ~68%), every available bet is negative expected value after the vig — especially with Uruguay's finishing struggles, key absences (Araujo, De Arrascaeta), and Cabo Verde's proven low-block resilience capping the edge. No positive-value wager exists, so the disciplined choice is no_bet.",partially_correct,True,neither,"Cape Verde's attacking output and Uruguay's defensive fragility — I framed Cabo Verde as a deep-sitting block with 'goalscoring issues,' yet they scored twice, and I underweighted how the absences of Araujo/Gimenez plus the reported dressing-room tension could let Uruguay concede multiple goals.","Uruguay's reputation, ranking gap, and squad-depth advantage translating into control and a win, when their actual on-pitch dysfunction (poor finishing, missing defensive leaders) deserved more weight.","no, the no_bet call was vindicated since a Uruguay wager at ~1.45 would have lost and my draw estimate (22%) matched the market, so there was still no positive-edge bet to make.",0.8,0,team_a_win,False,0.22,1.0478,1.5141277326297755,0.65,1.4761904761904765,4.1,7.5,0.6423,0.2313,0.1264,38,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m39,group,group,Belgium,IR Iran,0,0,draw,regulation,,0.64,0.23,0.13,draw,10,"Belgium are clear favorites (Opta 67.5%, market devigged ~66%) given far superior quality, a 14-match unbeaten run, and Iran's poor record versus top-15 sides, so I sit slightly below market at 64% mainly because Jeremy Doku is out through illness and Belgium have a long World Cup scoring drought (no non-own-goal at a WC since 2022). Those two factors make a low-scoring draw modestly more likely than the +360 (~21.7% implied) the market offers, giving the draw thin positive expected value. Backing Belgium at -230 and Iran at +650 both grade as negative EV by my numbers, so I take only a small disciplined stake on the draw.",partially_correct,True,neither,I underweighted how completely Iran's deep defensive block plus Belgium's chronic World Cup finishing problems could produce a blank rather than the narrow Belgium win I treated as the base case.,"Belgium's attacking firepower and strong pre-tournament friendly form (20 goals in 5 games), which once again failed to translate to the World Cup stage.","no, the draw was the correct value pick and the modest stake was appropriate for a thin edge under genuine uncertainty; increasing it purely because it won would be outcome bias.",0.7,0,team_a_win,False,0.23,1.0194,1.4696759700589417,0.64,1.434782608695652,4.6,7.5,0.6652,0.2075,0.1273,39,0,team_a_win,10.0,36.0,True,True,True,0.0225
claude,m40,group,group,Spain,Saudi Arabia,4,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.87,0.09,0.04,no_bet,0,"Spain are overwhelming favorites: the Opta supercomputer gives them ~86.7% (draw 9%, Saudi 4.3%) and Kalshi traders price ~89/9/4, consistent with their 27-shot dominance vs Cape Verde and Yamal now starting against a Saudi side set up to sit deep. However, bet365 prices Spain at -1200 (~92% implied), shorter than my ~87% estimate, making a straight Spain bet negative-EV, while the draw (+900) and Saudi (+2200) are roughly fair-to-negative; with no edge in the 1X2 market (the value cited is in player props like Oyarzabal anytime scorer), the disciplined call is no bet.",correct,True,neither,"I slightly underweighted the magnitude of Spain's superiority—a 4-0 rout suggests their true win probability and especially their goal-scoring ceiling were a touch higher than my ~87%, as the 27-shot performance vs Cape Verde was finishing variance rather than a quality issue.","The 'trap game' / low-block upset risk—Saudi Arabia's draw with Uruguay and Cape Verde's frustration of Spain led me to keep a meaningful tail on draw/Saudi outcomes, but the block was comprehensively broken.","no, the 1X2 prices offered no edge before kickoff regardless of the eventual scoreline, and a -1200 Spain line was still negative-EV against my honest pre-match estimate.",0.8,0,team_a_win,True,0.87,0.0266,0.1392620673335076,0.87,1.0909090909090908,12.0,21.0,0.875,0.0795,0.0455,40,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m41,group,group,Jordan,Algeria,1,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.18,0.24,0.58,team_a_win,5,"Algeria (team_b) has a clearly deeper, mostly European-based squad and strong pre-tournament form, and is a near-consensus ~58-62% favorite (Opta 60.1%, Kalshi 62%, bet365 ~60% no-vig), so the -140/-167 price on them and the ~24% draw offer no real edge against my line. My estimate (Jordan 0.18 / draw 0.24 / Algeria 0.58) leans marginally toward Jordan because they defend deep with a genuine counter threat through Al-Tamari and Olwan while Algeria's attack badly misfired vs Argentina (0.32 xG), and Jordan's long price (+500 ≈ 16.7% implied) sits just above my 18%. I therefore take only a small disciplined value stake on Jordan and leave most of the bankroll unstaked, since the edge is within estimation noise and Algeria remains the rightful favorite.",partially_correct,True,neither,"I underweighted that Algeria's flat, low-xG display was Argentina-specific and that their superior attackers would convert against Jordan's far weaker defense and shaky keeper; they scored twice, as their quality should have implied.","I gave too much weight to Algeria's 0.32-xG misfire against Argentina as evidence they'd struggle to break down a deep block, which pushed my line slightly below market and motivated the Jordan flier.","yes — I'd choose no_bet, because my probabilities essentially matched the market and the Jordan +500 edge was within estimation noise rather than a robust, stake-worthy advantage.",0.7,2,team_b_win,True,0.58,0.2664,0.5447271754416722,0.58,5.5,4.1,1.5714285714285714,0.1712,0.2296,0.5992,41,2,team_b_win,5.0,-5.0,True,False,True,0.0088
claude,m42,group,group,Norway,Senegal,3,2,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.45,0.27,0.28,no_bet,0,"Norway carry momentum from a 4-1 win over Iraq with Haaland on an 11-game scoring streak, but Senegal (Mane, Jackson, Sarr, Koulibaly) field a deeper, more talented squad and are in near-must-win mode after losing to France. My estimates (~45/27/28) sit almost exactly on the Opta supercomputer (45.0/25.4/29.6) and the de-vigged market (~Norway 2.04, draw 3.41, Senegal 3.22), so every side carries negative expected value once the bookmaker margin is removed. With no genuine edge over an efficient market on a tightly priced toss-up, the disciplined call is to pass.",correct,True,neither,Goal volume — I fixated on the efficient 1X2 market and underweighted that both teams' attacking quality against shaky defenses made Over 2.5 and BTTS (both flagged as value and both hitting in this 3-2) the real edge.,"The draw / 'cagey, low-to-medium scoring' framing — I assigned 27% to a stalemate, but the game was open and produced five goals rather than the tight contest I partly leaned toward.","no — the 1X2 no-bet was process-correct given no edge over the de-vigged market, and a single confirming result shouldn't override that discipline, though in hindsight the goals markets offered the value I passed on.",0.7,0,team_a_win,True,0.45,0.4538000000000001,0.7985076962177716,0.45,2.27,3.7,3.22,0.4313,0.2646,0.3041,42,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m43,group,group,France,Iraq,3,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.89,0.08,0.03,no_bet,0,"France (FIFA #3) beat Senegal 3-1 in their opener with Mbappé scoring twice and need only a draw to qualify, while Iraq (#57) lost 4-1 to Norway; Opta's supercomputer gives France 88.5%, draw 8.5%, Iraq 3%, matching my estimate. The market prices France at roughly 1.08 decimal (~93% implied) and Iraq at ~30.0, so every outcome carries negative expected value after the bookmaker margin—France pays too little, Iraq/draw are too unlikely—making no_bet the rational, EV-maximizing choice.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, because the favorite winning was already my central forecast and France's ~1.08 odds offered only ~$8 upside against $100 risk—negative EV that a single confirming result doesn't retroactively justify chasing.",0.9,0,team_a_win,True,0.89,0.0194,0.1165338162559515,0.89,1.0833333333333333,11.0,26.0,0.8771,0.0864,0.0365,43,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m44,group,group,Argentina,Austria,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.64,0.22,0.14,team_a_win,40,"Argentina are the defending champions in excellent form (6+ straight wins, Messi hat-trick in a 3-0 opener vs Algeria) and are clearly higher quality than a well-organized but weaker Austria, with only minor rotation/injury noise (Montiel out, Molina in; core XI intact). Market odds and statistical models both cluster around 63-65% for Argentina, matching my estimate, so the main risk is a low-scoring draw against Rangnick's compact side rather than an Austria win. Because the favorite's short price caps the edge, I stake a moderate $40 on Argentina rather than the full budget.",correct,True,neither,"I slightly underweighted how comfortably Argentina would control the match and keep a clean sheet; their backline neutralized Austria's threats (Sabitzer, Arnautovic, Alaba) more easily than my 14% Austria-win and 22% draw figures implied.","The draw risk — I framed a low-scoring stalemate against Rangnick's compact side as the 'main risk,' but Austria never looked like getting a result and the 2-0 scoreline reflects a routine favorite win, not a tight contest.","no — backing the clear favorite at a moderate stake was the correct process given the short odds and thin edge, and I shouldn't let one confirming result tempt me into outcome-biased overconfidence about staking more.",0.8,0,team_a_win,True,0.64,0.1976,0.4462871026284195,0.64,1.4166666666666667,4.5,7.5,0.665,0.2094,0.1256,44,0,team_a_win,40.0,16.66666666666667,True,True,False,-0.025
claude,m45,group,group,Colombia,Congo DR,1,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.6,0.25,0.15,draw,25,"Colombia are deservedly clear favorites (better squad with Díaz/James/Suárez, in-form, conditions suit a South American side), but the de-vigged market and Opta both price them around 58-64% to win, and the best available win odds (~1.50-1.56) offer no value. The edge sits with the draw: DR Congo's disciplined block already held Portugal to 1-1 while generating more xG on just 25% possession, the game projects low-scoring (under 2.5 is the favored total), and best draw prices of ~4.2-4.26 clear my ~25% estimate, so a modest stake is the soundest positive-EV play given the variance.",partially_correct,True,neither,"I underweighted Colombia's ability to convert their clear quality and territorial edge into at least one goal against a deep block — a controlled 1-0/2-0 win was the true modal path, exactly as several previews flagged.","DR Congo's draw-securing ability — I leaned too heavily on the single Portugal data point to push the draw above the market's ~22%, when Colombia were more proactive and had the finishers to break the deadlock.","no — the short-priced favorite still offered no value and a thin-edge draw was a defensible position, though the marginal edge argues for a smaller stake or no_bet rather than a different pick.",0.7,0,team_a_win,True,0.6,0.245,0.5108256237659907,0.6,1.5128205128205128,4.2,7.0,0.6344,0.2285,0.1371,45,0,team_a_win,25.0,-25.0,True,False,True,0.0214999999999999
claude,m46,group,group,Panama,Croatia,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.15,0.24,0.61,no_bet,0,"Croatia (FIFA #11) are clear favorites over Panama (#34): the Opta supercomputer gives Croatia ~62% across 25,000 sims, and de-vigged market odds (Panama +550 / Draw +310 / Croatia -185) imply almost identical numbers (~62/23/15), so my estimate tracks the consensus closely. Panama impressed in a 1-0 opening loss to Ghana (62% possession, last-gasp winner) and Croatia's defense is frail (no clean sheet in 7, tired aging midfield with Modric at 40), which keeps draw/upset live but not mispriced. With all three outcomes sitting at roughly break-even or slightly negative EV versus the market and a thin sub-1% Kelly stake on any lean, the disciplined call is no bet.",correct,True,neither,"I slightly underweighted how decisive Panama's chronic finishing problem would be—held scoreless again, exactly the failing I noted but didn't fully price into a higher draw chance.","Croatia's defensive frailty—I leaned on their 7-game clean-sheet drought to keep draw/upset live, but they ground out a 1-0 shutout, so that frailty didn't materialize.","no, the modal outcome landed and the market was efficient, so passing on a sub-1% Kelly edge remains the correct disciplined call regardless of this single result.",0.72,2,team_b_win,True,0.61,0.2322,0.4942963218147801,0.61,7.0,4.0,1.5,0.1348,0.236,0.6292,46,2,team_b_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m47,group,group,England,Ghana,0,0,draw,regulation,,0.79,0.14,0.07,no_bet,0,"My England-win estimate (~79%) sits right on top of the de-vigged market and supercomputer consensus (Opta 78.8%, prediction markets ~80.5%, bookmaker line England -450 / draw +550 / Ghana +1400), so there is no exploitable edge. England's moneyline at -450 is negative-EV (risk $100 to win ~$22), the draw is negative-EV, and Ghana's +1400 yields only a razor-thin nominal edge that is within model noise; Kelly sizing on my own numbers returns essentially $0. With an efficiently priced market and no genuine value, the disciplined decision is to pass.",partially_correct,True,neither,"Ghana's defensive floor — a Queiroz side set up to park the bus, fresh off a clean sheet, raised the probability of a low-scoring stalemate more than I credited; the goalless draw was a coherent script I assigned too little weight (14%).","England's attacking output, anchored on the 4-2 vs Croatia and the supercomputer/market favorite framing — recency bias toward their firepower, underplaying how wasteful favorites often are against a packed deep block, especially with qualification near-secured and possible rotation/complacency.","no — the no_bet call was correct on EV grounds and is actually vindicated, since the England moneyline (-450) I judged negative-EV would have lost outright on this draw.",0.7,0,team_a_win,False,0.14,1.3686,1.9661128563728327,0.79,1.2222222222222223,6.5,15.0,0.7877,0.1481,0.0642,47,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m48,group,group,Portugal,Uzbekistan,5,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.79,0.14,0.07,no_bet,0,"My estimate (Portugal ~79% / draw ~14% / Uzbekistan ~7%) aligns with both the Opta/SportsCasting supercomputers (76-78% Portugal) and de-vigged market odds (Portugal -450 to -550, draw +600/+625, Uzbekistan +1400), reflecting Portugal's huge squad-quality edge, Rúben Dias's return, and a must-improve motivation against a debutant that has lost three straight conceding seven goals. However, the favorite's short price gives essentially zero positive expected value once the vig is removed, and the draw/Uzbekistan longshot edges are too thin and noise-dependent to justify a stake, so the disciplined play is no bet.",correct,True,neither,"I underweighted the blowout potential — the sheer gap in squad quality meant Portugal were always likely to win the goal-difference battle emphatically once they corrected their MD1 sloppiness, not just edge a tight game.","Portugal's flat, low-xG opener against DR Congo and Ronaldo's poor form, which I treated as a signal they might struggle to break down a deep block when it was largely noise from a single game.","no — the moneyline still offered no value ex ante and a single emphatic result doesn't retroactively make a -450 price +EV; the real (unrewarded) edge was in the margin/over-goals markets, which I correctly avoided chasing on the match-result line.",0.8,0,team_a_win,True,0.79,0.0686,0.2357223335210698,0.79,1.2,7.0,12.0,0.7865,0.1348,0.0787,48,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m49,group,group,South Africa,Korea Republic,1,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.17,0.24,0.59,team_b_win,25,"Sharp markets and the margin-free Kalshi price converge on Korea Republic ~59%, draw ~25%, South Africa ~17%, reflecting a clear quality gap (Son Heung-min, Kim Min-jae, Lee Kang-in), better form, and Korea needing only a result, while South Africa are winless in seven, have scored once in two games, and are missing suspended starters Mokoena and Zwane. South Africa's must-win situation should force them forward and open space for Korea's superior counterattack, reinforcing the favorite. The moneyline (~-155) is efficiently priced so the edge is thin, hence a modest stake on Korea as the standout most-likely outcome rather than a larger position.",incorrect,True,unlucky,"Motivational asymmetry cutting the other way: a team needing only a draw can turn passive and protective, and Korea had shown late-game fatigue (faded vs Mexico), which let a desperate, physical South Africa control a low-event match and nick it.","The individual quality gap (Son, Kim Min-jae, Lee Kang-in) and the 'South Africa over-commits, Korea counters' narrative — star quality often fails to convert in a single low-scoring game, especially when the favorite is managing for a draw.","yes — my own Kelly math showed the edge was essentially zero (~$1), so the disciplined call was no_bet rather than a $25 stake, a process critique independent of the loss.",0.7,2,team_b_win,False,0.17,1.0945999999999998,1.7719568419318752,0.59,5.75,3.9,1.6,0.1648,0.243,0.5922,49,2,team_b_win,25.0,-25.0,True,False,False,-0.0021999999999999
claude,m50,group,group,Czechia,Mexico,0,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.27,0.29,0.44,draw,30,"Mexico have already clinched Group A top spot with two clean-sheet wins and are set to heavily rotate (Ochoa, Mora, Giménez in, Jiménez/Álvarez rested), removing both their urgency and some quality, while Czechia must win but have been toothless (<0.5 open-play xG/game, Schick starved of service). That points to a tight, low-scoring game at the Azteca, and with the draw priced around +280 (~26% implied) versus my ~29% estimate, it offers the only positive-EV edge; Mexico's moneyline (~-110) is fair-to-rich and Czechia's +285 is roughly efficient, so I stake a moderate amount on the draw.",partially_correct,False,neither,"That a desperate Czechia chasing the game would open itself up to Mexico's counters and quality—the decisive 3-0 shows the talent/home gap was wider than my near-coin-flip probabilities implied, even for a rotated Mexico.","The 'rotation + low-scoring tight draw' narrative and Mexico's supposed lack of motivation, which I leaned on too heavily after seeing several experts flag draw value.","yes—I would have passed (no_bet) or considered backing Mexico rather than chasing a thin, narrative-driven edge on the draw.",0.7,2,team_b_win,True,0.44,0.4706,0.8209805520698302,0.44,3.6,4.0,1.9090909090909087,0.2642,0.2377,0.4981,50,2,team_b_win,30.0,-30.0,True,False,True,0.0522999999999999
claude,m51,group,group,Morocco,Haiti,4,2,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.82,0.12,0.06,team_a_win,25,"Morocco (4 pts, conceded once in two games, 31-match unbeaten run, settled XI) face an already-eliminated Haiti side that has scored zero goals and lost both matches; Opta's supercomputer gives Morocco ~81% and the market prices them around -455 (~82%). Morocco are also motivated to chase top spot and goal difference, so a comfortable win is highly likely. The price offers minimal edge, so I stake conservatively on the near-certain outcome rather than the poorly-valued draw or Haiti markets.",correct,True,neither,"Haiti's attacking output when playing open with nothing to lose — they scored twice after being shut out in their first two games, which I underweighted by anchoring on their zero-goal record.","Morocco's defensive solidity ('conceded just once in two games') — I implicitly expected another clean sheet, but they conceded twice.","no — the Morocco win pick was correct and the most likely outcome, though I'd have valued a goals/over market more given how open the game became.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.82,0.0504,0.1984509387238383,0.82,1.1666666666666667,7.5,15.0,0.8108,0.1261,0.0631,51,0,team_a_win,25.0,4.166666666666669,True,True,False,0.0091999999999999
claude,m52,group,group,Scotland,Brazil,0,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.12,0.22,0.66,draw,20,"Brazil are heavy favorites (Opta supercomputer 68%, Kalshi 72%, bet365 ~70% devigged) given their loaded attack and unbeaten 11-game head-to-head record over Scotland, even with Raphinha injured. However, Brazil only need a draw to top Group C, dampening their incentive to chase a win, while Scotland's defense has conceded just once in 180 minutes — so I price the draw at ~22% vs the market's ~19% implied at +425, the only outcome with clearly positive EV. Backing Brazil (-250/-275) and Scotland (+700) both sit near or below fair value, so I stake a modest amount on the draw to reflect a real but uncertain edge.",partially_correct,True,neither,Brazil's quality differential was large enough that their reduced need to win (only a draw required to top the group) did not blunt their performance — the talent gap dominated motivation.,"The 'Brazil unmotivated, low-event game' narrative, which I used to inflate the draw probability to 22% and justify the bet.","yes — I'd choose no_bet (or back Brazil), since my thin draw edge rested on a motivation thesis the comfortable win refutes, and the efficient ~70% favorite read deserved more respect.",0.7,2,team_b_win,True,0.66,0.1783999999999999,0.4155154439616658,0.66,8.0,5.0,1.3636363636363638,0.1181,0.189,0.6929,52,2,team_b_win,20.0,-20.0,True,False,True,0.031
claude,m53,group,group,Bosnia and Herzegovina,Qatar,3,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.6,0.23,0.17,team_b_win,10,"Bosnia is the clearly stronger side (Dzeko, Kolasinac, superior squad) and the rightful favorite, while Qatar has been the tournament's worst team — 2-14 aggregate, never won a World Cup match, and just lost 6-0 to Canada. However, the market's ~+600 on Qatar (≈14% implied) looks slightly inflated by recency overreaction to that thrashing: Qatar drew 1-1 with Switzerland in this same group, and since a draw eliminates both teams, both must attack, opening up an upset path. I take a small-stake value punt on Qatar where my estimate (17%) exceeds the implied price; high variance keeps the stake low.",correct,True,neither,"I underweighted that Qatar's 6-0 loss to Canada was a genuine signal of persistent weakness, not a recency-biased overreaction — the market's long price on them was warranted, and Bosnia's quality edge was real, as the 3-1 margin showed.","The 'market overreaction / contrarian value' thesis, anchored on Qatar's single flattering 1-1 draw with Switzerland, which I used to justify nudging Qatar from 14% to 17% and taking the bet.","yes — I'd either no-bet or back Bosnia, since my contrarian Qatar edge was illusory and the favorite's superiority was correctly priced by the market.",0.72,0,team_a_win,True,0.6,0.2418,0.5108256237659907,0.6,1.4444444444444444,5.0,6.25,0.6579,0.1901,0.152,53,0,team_a_win,10.0,-10.0,True,False,True,0.018
claude,m54,group,group,Switzerland,Canada,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.39,0.32,0.29,draw,25,"Switzerland (Team A) is the deserved market favorite (~+130/+150) as the seeded, deeper, in-form side, while Canada (Team B) carries home-crowd energy at BC Place but is hurt by injuries to Davies (likely benched) and Koné. The key edge is the incentive structure: both teams are essentially already through and Canada tops the group with only a draw thanks to a +6 goal difference, which typically raises draw frequency and lowers intensity—so I price the draw (~0.32) above the market-implied ~0.30. At best available draw odds of roughly +220/+225 that yields a small positive expected value, the same 'value play' several previews independently flagged, hence a modest stake rather than a large one.",partially_correct,True,neither,"I underweighted that Switzerland's genuine quality/depth edge plus Canada's key injuries (Davies likely benched, Koné out) would more likely yield a decisive result for the better side rather than the cagey stalemate I leaned toward.","The 'Canada only needs a draw, both already qualified' incentive narrative—I bumped the draw above market on this, but Switzerland needed the win, pushed, and both sides actually wanted top spot for the easier knockout path.","yes—the modal call (Switzerland favorite) was right, but my $25 draw stake far exceeded what such a thin, narrative-dependent edge justified (near-zero full-Kelly), so I'd pass or stake a fraction of that.",0.6,0,team_a_win,True,0.39,0.5586,0.941608539858445,0.39,2.3,3.2,3.3,0.414,0.2975,0.2885,54,0,team_a_win,25.0,-25.0,True,False,True,0.0225
claude,m55,group,group,Curaçao,Côte d'Ivoire,0,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.07,0.12,0.81,team_b_win,25,"Côte d'Ivoire (FIFA ~33rd, 2023 AFCON winners) are markedly stronger than debutants Curaçao (~82nd) and need only a draw to reach the last 32, while Curaçao must chase the game and will leave space for Ivorian counters; Opta's supercomputer gives Côte d'Ivoire 82.2% and Kalshi prices them at 84%, with the draw ~11% and Curaçao ~6%. The favourite is close to fairly priced (heavy odds-on), so I back Côte d'Ivoire but keep the stake modest given thin expected value rather than chasing the draw or the longshot home win. Singo (hamstring) is out for Côte d'Ivoire but Guela Doué deputises and the squad gap remains large.",correct,True,neither,"Côte d'Ivoire's defensive control was more complete than I implied — I leaned toward goals at both ends, but Curaçao's counter threat (Hansen, Chong) never materialized into a goal against a back line that conceded nothing in CAF qualifying.","Curaçao's resilience and the 'nothing to lose, throw bodies forward could create chances' narrative, plus a slightly inflated draw probability premised on Côte d'Ivoire game-managing for the point they only needed.","no, the pick and reasoning were sound and the modest odds-on stake was appropriately disciplined; a 2-0 hindsight margin doesn't justify having risked more on a short price.",0.7,2,team_b_win,True,0.81,0.0553999999999999,0.2107210313156525,0.81,18.0,8.0,1.1428571428571428,0.0526,0.1184,0.8289,55,2,team_b_win,25.0,3.57142857142857,True,True,False,-0.0188999999999999
claude,m56,group,group,Ecuador,Germany,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.27,0.24,0.49,no_bet,0,"My estimate (Ecuador 27% / draw 24% / Germany 49%) tracks both the Opta supercomputer (Germany 48.8%, Ecuador 28.2%) and the margin-adjusted bet365 prices (Germany 19-20, draw 3-1, Ecuador 5-2), so the line looks efficient with no positive-EV edge. Germany top the group and will rotate heavily under nothing-to-play-for conditions, but their attacking depth should still punish a desperate, must-win Ecuador side that has failed to score in two games despite high shot volume; those offsetting factors leave all three outcomes priced at or below fair value once the bookmaker margin is removed, so the disciplined call is to pass.",partially_correct,True,neither,"I underweighted how a fully-rotated, dead-rubber Germany XI could be genuinely vulnerable, and that Ecuador's high chance volume (16 shots on target, 27 attempts vs Curacao) meant their goal drought was variance-driven and likely to break against a weakened defense.","Ecuador's two-game scoring drought and 'can't finish' narrative, which I treated as a persistent skill deficit rather than bad finishing luck on top of strong chance creation.","no, because a single 27%-probability result doesn't invalidate the efficient-market reasoning behind no_bet, though I acknowledge Ecuador at 5-2 was the defensible value side I came closest to backing.",0.68,2,team_b_win,False,0.27,0.8305999999999999,1.3093333199837622,0.49,3.5,4.0,1.95,0.2725,0.2384,0.4891,56,2,team_b_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m57,group,group,Japan,Sweden,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.52,0.27,0.21,team_a_win,20,"Japan are unbeaten in Group F (2-2 vs Netherlands, 4-0 vs Tunisia), have conceded only twice, ride a nine-match unbeaten run, and hold a situational edge since a draw alone sends them through while Sweden must chase the game and open up against Japan's counter. Sweden carry real threat in Isak and Gyökeres but shipped five against the same Dutch side Japan held, and their defense looks leaky. Market consensus (devigged ~51-52% Japan, ~27% draw, ~21% Sweden) matches my read, so I take a modest stake on Japan at roughly even money where the price slightly understates their form-plus-situation advantage.",partially_correct,True,neither,"I underweighted how Japan's own incentive structure suppressed their win probability—needing only a draw to advance, they had every reason to sit deep and settle, which actively pushes the modal outcome toward a draw rather than a Japan win.","Japan's attacking form, especially the 4-0 over an already-eliminated, out-of-sorts Tunisia, which flattered them and led me to back an outright win rather than respect the high draw likelihood.","yes—I flagged the Japan-win edge as marginal myself, so given Japan's clear incentive to settle for a draw, no_bet (or a draw/double-chance position) would have been the disciplined call.",0.72,0,team_a_win,False,0.27,0.8473999999999999,1.3093333199837622,0.52,2.0,3.3,3.9,0.4719,0.286,0.242,57,0,team_a_win,20.0,-20.0,True,False,False,0.0481
claude,m58,group,group,Tunisia,Netherlands,1,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.07,0.13,0.8,draw,10,"Both the Opta supercomputer (~83% NED win, ~5% TUN) and the market (NED -750, draw +800, TUN +1900) agree the Netherlands are overwhelming favorites against an eliminated, crisis-hit Tunisia that managed 0.05 xG and no shots on target last match. There's no value backing the Netherlands at -750 (implied ~88% vs my ~80%), and Tunisia is a pure lottery ticket, but with the Dutch essentially through and Koeman expected to rotate ahead of the knockouts, I see a small edge on the draw (my 13% vs implied ~11%). I'm staking only $10 to reflect that the edge is thin and speculative.",correct,True,neither,"The Netherlands' squad depth means rotation barely dents their attacking output, so the 'rotated/dead-rubber side concedes a draw' dynamic I leaned on was largely illusory against a team this strong.","The dead-rubber/rotation effect as a driver of a draw, which was the entire basis for my draw stake.","yes, I'd choose no_bet—the favorite offered negative value at -750 and my draw 'edge' was too thin and speculative to justify staking.",0.8,2,team_b_win,True,0.8,0.0617999999999999,0.2231435513142097,0.8,25.0,11.11,1.1364256480218282,0.0396,0.0891,0.8713,58,2,team_b_win,10.0,-10.0,True,False,True,0.0409
claude,m59,group,group,Türkiye,USA,3,2,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.3,0.29,0.41,team_a_win,15,"USA has already won Group D and clinched the round of 32, so Pochettino is likely to rotate and protect four yellow-card-carrying starters (Adams, Balogun, Richards, Robinson) plus manage Pulisic's calf, weakening a side Opta's full-strength model rates at 47.7% win probability. Türkiye are eliminated but motivated and technically strong (Güler, Yıldız, Çalhanoğlu) and have never lost three straight World Cup games. The de-vigged market and my estimate align closely, but the rotation/dead-rubber risk gives slight overlay value to a Türkiye win at +255, so I take a small disciplined stake rather than chasing a large position.",partially_correct,True,neither,"Türkiye's attacking talent (Güler, Yıldız, Çalhanoğlu, Aktürkoğlu) finally converting and the freedom of a pressure-free, eliminated team unlocking their finishing—I over-anchored on their prior goal drought and 66 shots without a goal as if it were predictive.",I kept USA as the favorite at 0.41 despite my own qualitative reasoning pointing toward Türkiye being underrated; I anchored too heavily on the Opta/market consensus instead of fully committing my distribution to my own rotation/dead-rubber thesis.,"no—the Türkiye pick was correct and profitable, and if anything I should have shaded both my probability and stake further toward Türkiye rather than keeping USA as nominal favorite.",0.6,2,team_b_win,False,0.3,0.7422,1.203972804325936,0.41,3.9,4.2,1.8,0.2442,0.2267,0.5291,59,2,team_b_win,15.0,43.5,True,True,True,0.0557999999999999
claude,m60,group,group,Paraguay,Australia,0,0,draw,regulation,,0.4,0.35,0.25,team_a_win,20,"Both sides have 3 points, but Australia advances on a draw (GD +0 vs Paraguay -2), so the Socceroos are likely to sit deep while must-win Paraguay pushes forward — a dynamic that tends to produce either a Paraguay breakthrough or a cagey draw, suppressing Australia's win chance. Opta's supercomputer marginally favors Paraguay (38.0% win / 38.6% draw / 23.4% Australia), and best-available Paraguay odds of ~2/1 (implied ~33%) sit below my 40% estimate, making Paraguay the value side; the draw at 5/4 needs ~44% to be worth backing. Main risk is the suspension of Almirón, Paraguay's top scorer and chief creator, which dents their must-win attacking edge, so I'm staking moderately rather than heavily.",partially_correct,True,neither,"I underweighted how decisively Australia's draw-is-enough incentive would let them kill the game from a low block, compounded by Almirón's suspension blunting Paraguay's only realistic route to breaking it down — the 0-0 deserved closer to 40% than the 35% I gave it.","The 'must-win team eventually breaks through' logic — I gave Paraguay's win (0.40) too much credit for converting territorial pressure into a goal against an organized, motivated-to-defend opponent.","no — a +EV wager on a 40% pick is expected to lose ~60% of the time, so a single 0-0 doesn't invalidate the process, though I'd trim the stake slightly given how thin the edge over the draw really was.",0.7,0,team_a_win,False,0.35,0.645,1.0498221244986778,0.4,2.875,2.15,3.9,0.3253,0.435,0.2398,60,1,draw,20.0,-20.0,True,False,True,0.0747
claude,m61,group,group,New Zealand,Belgium,1,5,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.08,0.14,0.78,team_b_win,15,"Belgium are heavy favorites in this must-win Group G decider: the Opta supercomputer gives them ~80.3% (draw 11.8%, NZ 7.9%), and they enter unbeaten in 15, with a vast squad-quality and ranking gap (NZ ~85th, winless in 8 World Cup matches). Market odds (Belgium ~-360 ≈ 78% implied) sit just below the model estimate, so Belgium-to-win carries a thin positive edge—hence a small, Kelly-sized stake rather than a large one, given short odds and Belgium's poor finishing (raising real draw risk against a NZ side that always scores but never keeps clean sheets).",correct,True,neither,"I underweighted how decisively Belgium's latent attacking quality could break out once they finally converted chances—the 5-goal haul exceeded the 'muted, profligate Belgium' picture I leaned on.","Belgium's tournament goal drought and poor finishing, which led me to inflate the draw probability (0.14) and stake conservatively rather than backing a more emphatic Belgium outcome.","no, the moneyline Belgium pick was vindicated and the process was sound—though with hindsight a -1.5 handicap or over-goals line would have returned more given the blowout.",0.82,2,team_b_win,True,0.78,0.0744,0.2484613592984996,0.78,14.0,8.0,1.1798561151079137,0.0684,0.1197,0.8118,61,2,team_b_win,15.0,2.697841726618705,True,True,False,-0.0317999999999999
claude,m62,group,group,Egypt,IR Iran,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.39,0.37,0.24,draw,25,"Market consensus (Kalshi ~39/36/25, bookmakers Egypt +145, draw +175, Iran +280) and the Opta supercomputer make Egypt a slight favorite, but the incentive structure favors a draw: Egypt qualifies and likely tops the group with just a point, while a draw plus likely third-place math also nearly secures Iran, and Iran's defense has conceded only via NZ (two near-clean sheets, strong keeper Beiranvand). Tournament final-group games where both sides are content with a stalemate tend to drift toward cagey draws, and multiple analysts flag the draw as the value side, so I take a modest stake there despite only a thin edge over the priced ~36%. Iran's disrupted travel/entry situation and weakest-in-group attacking output cap their upside, keeping their win the least likely outcome.",correct,True,neither,"I leaned on Iran's clean-sheet record and slightly underweighted that the game would open up enough for both teams to score (BTTS), which several sources had flagged; Iran scoring fit my 'they must push and can punish on the break' logic better than my defensive-solidity emphasis did.","Iran's defensive solidity / two near-clean-sheet record—they conceded, so my emphasis on their rearguard was marginally too strong, though it didn't affect the draw call.","no, the incentive structure correctly pointed to a draw and a modest stake was the right size for a genuinely thin edge—I'd avoid letting a winning result tempt me into thinking I should have staked more.",0.8,0,team_a_win,False,0.37,0.6066,0.9942522733438668,0.39,2.45,2.75,3.3,0.3797,0.3383,0.2819,62,0,team_a_win,25.0,43.75,True,True,True,0.0317
claude,m63,group,group,Cabo Verde,Saudi Arabia,0,0,draw,regulation,,0.41,0.27,0.32,team_a_win,15,"Cabo Verde have been the more cohesive side (0-0 vs Spain, 2-2 vs Uruguay), are defensively organized and carry genuine pace to exploit Saudi Arabia on the break, while the Saudis have looked toothless (only ~10 shots across two games, -4 GD, lacking width and creativity). Both teams essentially must win, suppressing the draw and favoring the better counter-attacking team, which matches the market making Cabo Verde slight favorites (Kalshi ~38%, bet365 +135). With a best available price around +150 (implied ~40%) sitting just under my ~41% estimate, I take a small value-oriented position on Cabo Verde while acknowledging the edge is thin and the market is efficient.",incorrect,False,neither,"I underweighted the draw: I saw clear stalemate signals (both sides defensively organized, Saudi Arabia chronically toothless in attack, multiple 'controlled/low-scoring/under 2.5' reads) and the real chance Cape Verde would be content to sit deep for a point, yet still rated the draw lowest at 0.27.","The 'both teams must win, so the game opens up and favors Cape Verde's counter-attacking pace' dynamic—I assumed desperation would break the deadlock, but two cagey, defensively-minded sides simply cancelled each other out.","yes—my edge on a Cape Verde win was thin and the low-scoring/stalemate signals were strong, so no_bet or a draw/under-leaning position was the more disciplined call than backing the win.",0.7,0,team_a_win,False,0.27,0.8033999999999999,1.3093333199837622,0.41,2.45,3.5,2.75,0.386,0.2702,0.3439,63,0,team_a_win,15.0,-15.0,True,False,False,0.0239999999999999
claude,m64,group,group,Uruguay,Spain,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.14,0.26,0.6,draw,25,"Spain (Team B) are clear favorites: top of Group H with 4 points, two clean sheets, in-form Oyarzabal and Yamal, and unbeaten in all 10 prior meetings with Uruguay (5W-5D). However, at roughly -200 the favorite offers no betting value, while the draw looks mildly underpriced near 23% market-implied: Spain need only a draw to top the group, both prior World Cup meetings ended level, under-2.5 goals is a favored market, and a depleted Uruguay (no Araujo or De Arrascaeta, winless in five) may not muster a win. The small edge sits on the draw, so I stake a modest $25 there rather than chasing the juiced favorite.",correct,True,neither,"Uruguay's depleted, blunt attack (no Araujo or De Arrascaeta, winless in five) made them unlikely to score the goal a draw required, so the draw was less reachable than I priced.","The 'Spain only needs a draw so will sit back' narrative plus the historical draw pattern, which inflated my draw probability and drove a marginal bet.","yes, I'd take no_bet—the draw edge was too thin to justify staking against a clearly superior side that only needed to avoid defeat, and the favorite was correctly priced too short to back.",0.6,2,team_b_win,True,0.6,0.2472,0.5108256237659907,0.6,7.0,4.1,1.5,0.1356,0.2315,0.6329,64,2,team_b_win,25.0,-25.0,True,False,True,0.0284999999999999
claude,m65,group,group,Senegal,Iraq,5,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.76,0.16,0.08,team_a_win,15,"Senegal hold a large quality gap (Mané, Ismaïla Sarr, Jackson) and are desperate for a convincing win to chase a best-third-place spot, while an eliminated Iraq has lost all five of its World Cup matches ever, conceded 7 goals in 2 games, and likely misses top scorer Aymen Hussein; the Opta supercomputer puts Senegal at ~77%, in line with my estimate. Senegal's defensive lapses (3+ conceded in three of last four) and Mendy's absence add some upset/draw variance, but Iraq's scoring impotence keeps that risk low. The market price (~-375, ~79% implied) leaves minimal value, so I take only a small disciplined stake on the clear favorite rather than passing entirely.",correct,True,neither,"I underweighted the sheer magnitude of the gap — Iraq's total attacking impotence (only one tournament goal, top scorer Hussein out, already eliminated) meant Senegal could romp to a clean-sheet rout rather than the competitive multi-goal win I pictured.","Senegal's defensive frailty/BTTS risk — I inflated the draw (0.16) and Iraq (0.08) lines expecting a consolation goal, but a non-threatening Iraq never tested that weakness.","no — the directional call (Senegal) was right and a small stake at a short -375 price was the disciplined choice, though hindsight shows the outcome was even safer than the market implied.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.76,0.0896,0.2744368457017603,0.76,1.2222222222222223,6.5,12.0,0.7753,0.1458,0.079,65,0,team_a_win,15.0,3.333333333333335,True,True,False,-0.0152999999999999
claude,m66,group,group,Norway,France,1,4,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.21,0.23,0.56,draw,20,"France are clear favorites (Opta ~55%, market ~-160) with a deeper squad, better form and a sturdier defense, but both teams have already qualified and a draw is enough for France to top Group I, which combined with likely mutual rotation (Norway reportedly weighing resting Haaland/Ødegaard; France missing Deschamps and Saliba) raises stalemate odds above the market's ~21% implied. France at -160 is negative EV and Norway is too lineup-dependent to back, so I take a small-stake value position on the draw at ~+350, keeping most of the bankroll in reserve given the edge is thin and rotation-dependent.",partially_correct,True,neither,"France's individual incentives (Mbappé's Golden Boot race, the clean-sweep ambition, playing for their grieving absent coach) meant they had every reason to attack at full intensity, so the reduced collective stakes never translated into a downshift.","The 'both already qualified + France content with a draw + mutual rotation' dead-rubber dynamic, which I leaned on to inflate the draw probability above market—it didn't materialize at all.","yes — I would have chosen no_bet or backed France/over 2.5 instead of the draw, since the draw thesis depended on a low-intensity game that the favorite's incentives made unlikely.",0.82,2,team_b_win,True,0.56,0.2905999999999999,0.579818495252942,0.56,4.5,4.5,1.65,0.2115,0.2115,0.5769,66,2,team_b_win,20.0,-20.0,True,False,True,0.0185
claude,m67,group,group,Algeria,Austria,3,3,draw,regulation,,0.25,0.45,0.3,draw,30,"Both teams are level on 3 points and a draw sends Austria through as runner-up and very likely Algeria through as a best third-placed team, creating strong mutual incentive for a cautious game — sharpened by the quirk that finishing 2nd earns a brutal Spain matchup in the R32 while 3rd may draw Switzerland. The bet365 market (draw +120 ≈ 43-45%) and the Opta supercomputer (draw 42.1%) both make the draw the most likely outcome, and these structural incentives plus Algeria's loss of top qualifier Amoura (hamstring) suggest the draw is fairly to slightly favorably priced. Austria's superior organization and goal-difference edge (with Sabitzer/Alaba/Arnautovic available despite rotation) make them modest second-favorites if the game opens up, so I stake only a moderate amount on the thin draw edge.",correct,True,neither,"Both defenses were far more porous than I assumed — I treated 'both content with a draw' as implying a low-event, low-scoring game, but a draw can equally emerge from an open, end-to-end shootout, which is what six goals reflect.","The 'mutual incentive for a cautious, low-risk game' narrative — I let the shared-incentive/avoid-Spain logic imply suppressed goals, when in fact both attacks (Mahrez/Gouiri, Sabitzer/Arnautovic) and shaky back lines produced a wide-open contest.","no — the draw was the correct modal call and the bet cashed, though I'd flag that my low-scoring rationale was wrong and the realized edge was thinner and more variance-driven than my reasoning implied.",0.8,1,draw,True,0.45,0.455,0.7985076962177716,0.45,3.8,2.3,2.8,0.2494,0.4121,0.3385,67,1,draw,30.0,38.99999999999999,True,True,False,0.0378999999999999
claude,m68,group,group,Jordan,Argentina,1,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.07,0.14,0.79,no_bet,0,"This is a dead rubber: Argentina (Team B) have already won Group J and clinched the Round of 32, so Scaloni is expected to rotate heavily and rest/limit the 39-year-old Messi, while eliminated Jordan (Team A) play only for pride and a first-ever World Cup point. Even a B-team Argentina vastly outclasses a Jordan side ranked ~63rd that has conceded in seven straight, so Argentina remain heavy favourites, but at ~1.20-1.23 (implied ~82%) the price sits above my ~79% estimate, giving no edge; the draw (+230) and Jordan (+1000) are likewise negative-EV, so the disciplined play is no bet.",correct,True,neither,"Slightly underweighted that a relaxed, rotated Argentina would still concede — Jordan got their goal against the reserves, so the clean-sheet streak I cited didn't hold, though this was minor and already partly priced in.","The dead-rubber/rotation and motivation-asymmetry narrative, which I used to shade Argentina below the market (0.79 vs ~0.83); the comfortable 3-1 suggests Argentina's depth dominated regardless and the market's higher number was the better estimate.","no — at ~1.20-1.23 there was no value against my probability, and one favorable result doesn't justify backing a sub-break-even favorite; the disciplined no_bet stands on process grounds.",0.82,2,team_b_win,True,0.79,0.0686,0.2357223335210698,0.79,16.67,9.09,1.1628664495114007,0.0582,0.1068,0.8349,68,2,team_b_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m69,group,group,Colombia,Portugal,0,0,draw,regulation,,0.25,0.29,0.46,draw,12,"Colombia (Team A) need only a draw to top Group K and are set up to defend compactly with strong local support in Miami, while Portugal (Team B) must chase the win and may rotate already-qualified legs. Opta's supercomputer (51.6% Portugal) and bet365 (Portugal -118) agree Portugal are clear favorites, so there's no value backing the favorite at a negative-EV price. The draw at roughly +260 offers a small edge given the game-state asymmetry, so I'm taking a modest position rather than chasing the priced-in Portugal win.",partially_correct,True,neither,"I underweighted how strongly the mutual incentive structure pushed toward a genuinely low-event, scoreless game — a 0-0 specifically was more likely than my 0.29 draw figure (which still had Portugal as modal) implied, given both defenses were solid and both sides were content to advance.","Portugal's talent edge and 5-0 momentum: I anchored my 0.46 Portugal-win figure too heavily on Opta's 51.6% and bookmaker favoritism, which were talent-based and discounted the game-state dampener I had myself identified.","no — the draw was the correctly identified value play and it cashed at +260; if anything I'd have sized it marginally larger or paired it with a 0-0 correct-score angle, but the core decision was right.",0.7,2,team_b_win,False,0.29,0.7782,1.2378743560016174,0.46,4.220000000000001,3.8,1.869565217391304,0.229,0.2543,0.5168,69,2,team_b_win,12.0,33.599999999999994,True,True,True,0.0356999999999999
claude,m70,group,group,Congo DR,Uzbekistan,3,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.55,0.22,0.23,no_bet,0,"DR Congo are deserved favorites: defensively solid (only ~2 conceded against Portugal and Colombia) with more squad quality, while Uzbekistan have looked overwhelmed (8 conceded, ~1 scored) and would need an unrealistic blowout to have any third-place hope. Both sides effectively need to win to advance, which should open the game up, but the market (≈55/22/23 once vig is removed) looks efficient and matches my estimate. After the bookmaker margin no outcome offers a reliable edge — DR Congo at -135 needs a true win probability above ~57% and I have them at 55%, while the Uzbekistan +340 edge is within model noise — so I pass.",correct,True,neither,"How decisively DR Congo's attack would convert against a leaky Uzbek defense (which had already shipped 8 goals / ~2.11 xG per game); I had this data but didn't let it lift my win probability or my goals expectation enough — a 3-1 was well outside my implied 'tight, low-scoring' read.","The 'both teams toothless / draw-prone / must-win makes it cagey' low-scoring narrative, which capped DR Congo at 55% and pushed me to no_bet when the defensive quality gap argued for ~58-60%.","yes — I'd nudge DR Congo to ~58-60%, which flips -135 from slightly negative to marginal positive EV and justifies a small win stake, though I'm wary of overcorrecting from a single result.",0.7,0,team_a_win,True,0.55,0.3037999999999999,0.5978370007556204,0.55,1.7407407407407407,4.2,4.3,0.5497,0.2278,0.2225,70,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m71,group,group,Croatia,Ghana,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.52,0.29,0.19,team_a_win,30,"Croatia hold a large quality gap (Modric, Gvardiol, Kovacic; ranked ~65 places above Ghana), must win to control their fate, and Opta's supercomputer gives them a 56% win chance—all pointing to a Croatia victory as the most likely outcome. However, Ghana's deep, disciplined Queiroz block has two clean sheets and only needs a draw to advance, which lifts the draw probability and makes Croatia's win price (-115) only marginally profitable, so I keep the stake modest. Ghana's near-zero attacking output (one goal in two games) makes a Ghana win the least likely result.",correct,True,neither,"I slightly underweighted Ghana's ability to actually convert a chance—I leaned hard on their one-goal-in-two-games toothlessness, yet they still found the net, so the 2-1 wasn't the clean Croatia control I implied.","Ghana's defensive resilience and two-clean-sheet record, which pushed my draw probability up to 0.29; Croatia's quality broke that block for two goals, so the low-block narrative deserved less weight.","no, Croatia win was the correct directional read and a modest stake suited the thin edge, though the borderline -EV at -115 means a disciplined no_bet was also defensible.",0.72,0,team_a_win,True,0.52,0.3506,0.6539264674066639,0.52,1.7518796992481205,3.18,5.2,0.5297,0.2918,0.1785,71,0,team_a_win,30.0,22.556390977443613,True,True,False,-0.0096999999999999
claude,m72,group,group,Panama,England,0,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.08,0.13,0.79,no_bet,0,"Panama are already eliminated, pointless and goalless, while England need only a draw to advance and have far superior depth; the Opta supercomputer (England 78.5%, Panama 8.9%) and Kalshi/bet365 markets (England ~85%, draw ~12%, Panama ~7%) all align closely with my estimate, so there's no exploitable edge. England at -600 is negative-EV after vig, and the draw/Panama prices are roughly fair (Kelly stake on any side is under 1% of bankroll), so the disciplined call is no bet despite England being clearly the most likely winner.",correct,True,neither,"I slightly underweighted England's likelihood of a clean, comfortable win — a 2-0 with Panama kept goalless was the textbook expression of the quality gap, and an overdue clinical finish was more probable than my draw-inflated distribution implied.","The risk of a frustrating low-block draw — I anchored too much on the prior 0-0 vs Ghana and England's finishing woes, nudging the draw to 0.13 when a comfortable England win was the cleaner read.","no — with my probabilities matching market consensus and the -600 favorite being negative-EV, abstaining was correct ex ante regardless of the outcome, and hindsight that England won doesn't change that.",0.82,2,team_b_win,True,0.79,0.0673999999999999,0.2357223335210698,0.79,13.0,8.0,1.1666666666666667,0.0726,0.118,0.8093,72,2,team_b_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m73,knockout,round_of_32,South Africa,Canada,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.18,0.29,0.53,draw,20,"Canada are deserved favorites (market ~-140, implying ~55% no-vig) with Jonathan David in form and a possible Alphonso Davies return, versus a defensively stubborn but goal-shy South Africa that scored just twice in the group stage. My win/draw/win estimate is close to the market, but both sides are low-scoring (Under 2.5 is heavily favored and combined totals were 2 or fewer goals in most of their matches), which lifts 90-minute draw value at +250 above its no-vig price for a marginal positive-EV play. Edge is thin and Davies' status is uncertain, so I'm staking small rather than backing the chalk at a negative price.",partially_correct,True,neither,"In a low-total match the superior side still tends to nick the one decisive goal, so a tight game favors the favorite winning by one as much as it favors a draw.","The draw probability, inflated by 'low-scoring therefore more draws' reasoning, when the quality gap pointed to a 1-0/2-0 Canada win that the analysts had flagged.","yes — my own note said the draw edge was within model noise, so no_bet was the more disciplined call regardless of outcome, since a ~1.5% estimated edge under high lineup uncertainty (Davies' status) wasn't robust enough to stake.",0.7,2,team_b_win,True,0.53,0.3374,0.6348782724359695,0.53,5.0,3.55,1.77,0.1911,0.2691,0.5398,73,2,team_b_win,20.0,-20.0,True,False,True,0.0208999999999999
claude,m74,knockout,round_of_32,Germany,Paraguay,1,1,draw,penalties,team_b,0.68,0.22,0.1,draw,15,"Germany are rightly heavy favorites (~-290 / ~70% implied), with elite attackers (Wirtz, Musiala, Sané, Havertz), but the moneyline carries no value at that price and Paraguay at +850 is a true longshot. Paraguay are built as a deep, compact low block that has produced back-to-back clean sheets (Türkiye, Australia), and Germany have looked defensively sloppy and lost their last group game to Ecuador, so the stylistic matchup and 2002 R16 precedent (a 1-0 grind) make a 90-minute draw modestly underpriced at +390. I take a small value stake on the draw while keeping Germany as clear favorites to advance overall.",partially_correct,True,lucky,"I underweighted how completely Paraguay's deep block could neutralize Germany's superior attack and drag the tie to extra time and a shootout, and I gave no explicit weight to the knockout penalty path where the 'draw' outcome means Paraguay actually advance.","The Germany talent/firepower gap — I had them at 68% to win in regulation, overrating the likelihood that an elite attack breaks down a purpose-built low block within 90 minutes against a side that had already kept two clean sheets.","No — the draw at +390 was the correct value identification given the stylistic mismatch, and it cashed; the only tweak would be also considering a 'Paraguay to advance' line to capture the shootout upside.",0.7,0,team_a_win,False,0.22,1.0808000000000002,1.5141277326297755,0.68,1.38,5.0,8.5,0.6952,0.1919,0.1129,74,0,team_a_win,15.0,60.0,True,True,True,0.0281
claude,m75,knockout,round_of_32,Netherlands,Morocco,1,1,draw,penalties,team_b,0.44,0.31,0.25,draw,20,"Models and de-vigged markets agree Netherlands are slight favorites (Opta 47.6/27.4/25.0; bet365 implied ~45/29/26; Kalshi 46/31/25), and my win-market numbers match closely enough that those bets carry no real edge. The draw at plus-money (~+230) is the only modest value angle: Morocco are unbeaten inside 90 minutes in 32 straight, the Netherlands have conceded in every group game with no clean sheet in seven, and multiple previews point to a cagey, low-scoring, level-after-90 knockout between two well-organized sides. Stake kept small because the edge is thin in a coin-flip-ish single match.",partially_correct,True,neither,"Morocco's knockout temperament and shootout strength — I had the Dutch favored to progress, but Morocco neutralized them in open play and went through on penalties, a scenario my own sources (RotoWire) flagged and I underweighted in the win probabilities.","The Netherlands' group-stage attacking output; 10 goals against weaker defenses didn't translate against Morocco's disciplined block, which held them to a single goal over 120 minutes.","no — the draw was the correct value angle given two organized sides and a likely level-after-90 game, and it landed; the process holds up independent of the shootout, though I'd note Morocco-to-progress was the under-respected side bet.",0.82,0,team_a_win,False,0.31,0.7322,1.171182981502945,0.44,2.15,3.3,3.6,0.4447,0.2897,0.2656,75,0,team_a_win,20.0,46.0,True,True,True,0.0202999999999999
claude,m76,knockout,round_of_32,Brazil,Japan,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.55,0.27,0.18,draw,25,"Market lines (Brazil ~-145, Draw ~+270/+290, Japan ~+400/+420) de-vig to roughly Brazil 56% / Draw 25% / Japan 19%, and Brazil's class, form (back-to-back 3-0s) and attacking firepower (Vini Jr 4 goals, Cunha 3) make them deserved favorites. However, Brazil's big wins came against Haiti/Scotland (neither advanced), Raphinha is injured, and Japan are unbeaten in a tougher group with a containment style that produced two 90-min draws (vs Netherlands and Sweden) plus a 3-2 win over Brazil in the 2025 Kirin Cup, so the regulation draw is modestly underpriced at +290. I take a small value stake on the draw rather than the negative-EV favorite, sizing well below full Kelly given the edge is thin and within model error.",partially_correct,True,neither,"I underweighted that an open, high-event game (the tournament's Over-2.5 trend, both attacks scoring) makes a 90-minute draw less likely; a 2-1 with Japan scoring but losing is exactly the competitive-favorite-wins scenario my 55% Brazil line implied.",Japan's draw-prone containment style and the 2025 Kirin Cup friendly win as evidence the gap had narrowed enough to make the regulation draw a value play.,"yes — the draw edge was only ~5% at the best price and within model error, so the disciplined call was no_bet or a smaller stake rather than chasing a thin contrarian value angle.",0.6,0,team_a_win,True,0.55,0.3077999999999999,0.5978370007556204,0.55,1.74,3.8,4.9,0.5516,0.2526,0.1959,76,0,team_a_win,25.0,-25.0,True,False,True,0.0174
claude,m77,knockout,round_of_32,Mexico,Ecuador,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.44,0.3,0.26,team_b_win,10,"Mexico are deserved favorites as imperious hosts (9/9 points, three clean sheets) playing in Mexico City, and the no-vig market puts them around 43-45% with Ecuador near 24-25% (+290). However, Mexico's clean sheets came against modest attacks (South Africa, South Korea, Czechia), while Ecuador just came from behind to beat Germany 2-1 and are elite altitude specialists (home in Quito at ~2,850m), which neutralizes Mexico's biggest edge here. I nudge Ecuador slightly above market to ~26%, making +290 a thin positive-EV value play, so I stake a small $10 given the genuine but modest edge and high knockout variance.",partially_correct,True,neither,"Mexico's defensive control and squad cohesion were strong enough to produce a comfortable clean-sheet win, not the tense 1-0/extra-time grind I leaned toward; I underweighted how decisively the host could dominate.",The 'Ecuador beat Germany + altitude specialists' narrative — I inflated Ecuador's win probability above market (0.26) specifically to manufacture a value bet that wasn't really there.,"yes — I'd go no_bet, since my true edge was within estimation noise and the efficient-market read was the correct one.",0.72,0,team_a_win,True,0.44,0.4712,0.8209805520698302,0.44,2.25,2.8,4.0,0.4226,0.3396,0.2377,77,0,team_a_win,10.0,-10.0,True,False,True,0.0223
claude,m78,knockout,round_of_32,France,Sweden,3,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.74,0.16,0.1,no_bet,0,"France were perfect in Group I (10 goals scored, 2 conceded; 4-1 over Norway) with a deep, in-form attack and Saliba returning, while Sweden sneaked in as a best third-place team with a dangerous Gyökeres-Isak strike pair but a leaky defense missing Isak Hien — a clear France edge. My ~74% France estimate essentially matches the vig-removed market (France ~-330/-350 ⇒ ~73%), so there is no positive-EV edge on any of the three outcomes. With no value after the bookmaker margin, the disciplined play is to pass rather than bet a near-fair or slightly negative line.",correct,True,neither,"I underweighted France's defensive solidity (Saliba back, Upamecano in form) — I expected Sweden to likely score at least once, but France kept a clean sheet and fully neutralized Gyökeres and Isak.","Sweden's strike-pairing threat; I treated Gyökeres-Isak as likely to make the game open, but they never got the platform to hurt France.","no, one comfortable win doesn't retroactively create value at -330 — passing on a no-edge line was still the disciplined call regardless of the outcome.",0.8,0,team_a_win,True,0.74,0.1032,0.3011050927839216,0.74,1.3,5.75,10.0,0.7374,0.1667,0.0959,78,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m79,knockout,round_of_32,Côte d'Ivoire,Norway,1,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.27,0.27,0.46,team_a_win,15,"Analysts unanimously frame this as a near coin-flip between two sides separated by only a couple of FIFA ranking places, yet the market prices Norway clearly ahead (~1/1) largely on Haaland's four group-stage goals, leaving Côte d'Ivoire generously priced at ~11/4. The Elephants are well-organized, hard to break down, beat France in a pre-tournament friendly, and face a Norway defense that conceded seven goals in the group stage—so the underdog price offers slim value, though injury doubts (Singo, Diallo) and CIV's shaky finishing temper conviction. This is a low-conviction value lean rather than a strong edge, hence the small stake.",partially_correct,True,neither,Norway's top-end quality (Haaland/Odegaard) as the decisive edge—I let the 'coin flip' narrative pull Côte d'Ivoire above the vig-removed market number when the market's Norway lean was probably right.,"The pundit 'coin flip' framing plus CIV's friendly win over France, which I used to manufacture underdog value and justify betting against my own modal outcome.","yes—my own Kelly check showed the edge was essentially noise (~$0.45 full Kelly), so staking $15 on the underdog against my own most-likely outcome was undisciplined; no_bet was the correct call.",0.7,2,team_b_win,True,0.46,0.4374,0.7765287894989963,0.46,3.65,3.5,2.05,0.2616,0.2728,0.4657,79,2,team_b_win,15.0,-15.0,True,False,True,0.0084
claude,m80,knockout,round_of_32,USA,Bosnia and Herzegovina,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.68,0.2,0.12,team_b_win,10,"USA are clear home favorites (FIFA #15 vs #61, in-form after winning Group D, rested starters like Adams/Balogun/Pulisic returning, home Bay Area crowd), so ~68% in regulation. Market prices USA at -280 (negative EV after vig) and Bosnia at +800; my ~12% estimate slightly exceeds the ~10.5% de-vigged market given single-game knockout variance, USA's leaky defense (one clean sheet in 11) plus a four-match knockout losing streak, and Bosnia's real attacking threat (Dzeko, Demirovic, Alajbegovic) after upsetting Italy to qualify. Only a thin value edge exists, so the stake is small and high-variance.",correct,True,neither,"I underweighted how decisively Bosnia's chronically leaky defense would let USA's strong, rested attack control the game, making a comfortable USA win more likely than my 12% Bosnia figure implied.","USA's 'four straight knockout losses' jinx and their defensive frailty—narrative factors I used to nudge Bosnia above the market's ~10.5%, none of which materialized.","yes—I would pick no_bet or a far smaller stake, since the Bosnia edge was razor-thin, narrative-driven, and my $10 stake was aggressive relative to what Kelly (~$1) justified.",0.8,0,team_a_win,True,0.68,0.1567999999999999,0.3856624808119846,0.68,1.44,4.6,7.5,0.6644,0.208,0.1276,80,0,team_a_win,10.0,-10.0,True,False,True,-0.0075999999999999
claude,m81,knockout,round_of_32,Belgium,Senegal,3,2,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.43,0.31,0.26,draw,20,"De-vigged consensus market odds (BEL ~+115, Draw ~+220, SEN ~+260) imply roughly 44/30/26, and this is widely framed as a coin-flip dressed up as a slight Belgium edge; Belgium looked toothless against organized defenses (1-1 Egypt, 0-0 Iran) before feasting on weak New Zealand, and Senegal will sit compact and counter through Mane/Sarr's pace. Multiple sharp handicappers converge on the draw as the value play in an evenly matched, likely tight-in-regulation knockout, so a small plus-money stake on the draw carries a marginal edge. The stake is intentionally small because the edge is thin, Senegal's loss of first-choice keeper Mendy is a real downgrade favoring Belgium, and Kelly sizing on a near-efficient market is minimal.",partially_correct,True,neither,"I underweighted that Belgium's superior attacking quality (De Bruyne/Lukaku/Trossard) would actually convert in an open, end-to-end game rather than the match staying tight and low-scoring.","The sharp-handicapper 'tense, low-scoring regulation draw' narrative and Belgium's toothlessness vs organized defenses—Senegal played open and countered rather than parking the bus, giving Belgium's attack the space it lacked vs Egypt/Iran.","yes—my own Kelly math already pointed to a near-zero stake, so no_bet or ~$5 would have been the internally consistent call rather than $20 on a 31% outcome.",0.7,0,team_a_win,True,0.43,0.4886000000000001,0.843970070294529,0.43,2.15,3.2,3.7,0.4439,0.2982,0.2579,81,0,team_a_win,20.0,-20.0,True,False,True,0.0117999999999999
claude,m82,knockout,round_of_32,England,Congo DR,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.74,0.19,0.07,draw,15,"Market (~-380) and Opta's supercomputer (73.9% England in regulation) both peg England near 74-76%, so backing the favorite offers no value after the vig. The one soft spot is the draw: England have repeatedly labored against deep low blocks (Ghana stalemate, grind vs Panama) and DR Congo are precisely that opponent—organized, resilient, counter-threat via Wissa—having already held Portugal 1-1. At +440 (~18.5% implied) I estimate the true 90-minute draw chance slightly higher (~19%), a thin value edge, so a small stake rather than a conviction bet.",partially_correct,True,neither,"England's individual quality (Kane, Bellingham, Saka) still producing the decisive goals to break the block—the favorite converting despite the grind, rather than the game staying level.","The 'England struggle against low blocks, therefore elevated draw chance' narrative, which pushed me into a bet against a well-priced favorite on a razor-thin edge.","yes, I would have chosen no_bet since the de-vigged edge on the draw (~0.5-1%) was too thin to justify betting against a sharply priced favorite, even though my probability forecast itself was sound.",0.8,0,team_a_win,True,0.74,0.1086,0.3011050927839216,0.74,1.27,5.75,13.0,0.7584,0.1675,0.0741,82,0,team_a_win,15.0,-15.0,True,False,True,0.0224999999999999
claude,m83,knockout,round_of_32,Switzerland,Algeria,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.53,0.27,0.2,team_a_win,35,"Switzerland won Group B unbeaten (7 goals scored, 3 conceded) on a 9-match unbeaten run with midfield control via Xhaka/Freuler and no major injuries, while Algeria backed into R32 as a third-place team having conceded 7 goals in 3 games, with key forward Amoura a major doubt and goalkeeper uncertainty (Zidane/Benbot). Market and prediction platforms price a Swiss 90-min win near 50-54% and my estimate leans slightly higher given the fresh Algeria injury/keeper news, so I back Switzerland but keep the stake modest since the edge over the price is thin and single-game knockout variance (plus Mahrez's threat) is real.",correct,True,neither,"I gave Algeria too much credit for scoring (they'd scored in all 3 group games), but their injury-hit attack was fully shut out — Switzerland's defense was better than the 'conceded in every group game' narrative implied.","Knockout-tightening draw risk and Algeria's counter-attacking threat via Mahrez, which never materialized in what was a fairly controlled Swiss win.","no, the pick was right and the modest $35 stake was appropriate given a thin edge over an efficient market and real single-game variance.",0.7,0,team_a_win,True,0.53,0.3338,0.6348782724359695,0.53,2.05,3.35,4.0,0.4707,0.288,0.2412,83,0,team_a_win,35.0,36.74999999999999,True,True,False,0.0593
claude,m84,knockout,round_of_32,Portugal,Croatia,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.53,0.28,0.19,draw,10,"De-vigged market odds imply roughly Portugal 54% / draw 27% / Croatia 19%, and I broadly agree—Portugal have deeper, more talented attackers versus an aging Croatia side that shipped four to England. My only lean is that a regulation draw is marginally underpriced: Portugal were held to 0-0 by Colombia and 1-1 by DR Congo, and Croatia's Modric-Kovacic core is built to slow the game and grind knockouts, so the best available draw price (~+275) offers a thin positive-EV edge worth a small stake. This is a marginal-value play, not a confident one—hence the modest $10 rather than backing a short-priced favorite with no edge.",partially_correct,True,neither,"In a win-or-go-home knockout, Portugal's raw talent edge was more likely to assert itself than in low-stakes group games; I underweighted how knockout urgency plus Croatia's England-exposed defensive frailty would let Portugal's attack convert.","Portugal's 'frustration-prone' group form (0-0 with Colombia, 1-1 with DR Congo) as evidence they'd be held again, and Croatia's aging-core 'tempo control' as a draw driver.","yes—the draw edge rested on an overextended narrative and was within estimation noise, so no_bet was the more disciplined call.",0.6,0,team_a_win,True,0.53,0.3354,0.6348782724359695,0.53,1.8,3.65,4.7,0.533,0.2629,0.2041,84,0,team_a_win,10.0,-10.0,True,False,True,0.0171
claude,m85,knockout,round_of_32,Spain,Austria,3,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.7100000000000001,0.18,0.11,team_b_win,10,"Spain are deserved heavy favorites—three group-stage clean sheets, superior squad depth and Yamal—and my 90-minute estimate (Spain 71% / draw 18% / Austria 11%) closely tracks both Opta's supercomputer (70.6/17.3/12.2) and de-vigged FanDuel lines. That makes Spain's -300 moneyline slightly negative-EV after vig (breakeven ~75% vs my 71%), and the draw is roughly fair, so there is no edge backing the favorite. The only marginal value is Austria at +900 (implied ~10%), a hair below my 11% and Opta's 12.2%, so I stake a small speculative amount on the underdog while acknowledging the edge is thin and within model noise.",correct,True,neither,I underweighted how completely Spain's midfield control would smother Austria's press and expose their leaky defense—the 3-0 margin points to a wider quality gap than my 71% implied.,"I gave too much credence to Austria's 'upset path' (Spain missing wide attackers, Rodri below form, Yamal-dependence), which justified a small value bet on a longshot whose real edge was within model noise.","yes—I'd pass (no_bet), since the ~1-point Austria edge over the implied price was illusory and the disciplined move was to avoid a -EV-after-vig favorite and a noise-level longshot alike.",0.7,0,team_a_win,True,0.7100000000000001,0.1285999999999999,0.3424903089467758,0.7100000000000001,1.31,5.25,10.5,0.7277,0.1816,0.0908,85,0,team_a_win,10.0,-10.0,True,False,True,0.0192
claude,m86,knockout,round_of_32,Colombia,Ghana,1,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.64,0.22,0.14,team_b_win,15,"Colombia are clear favorites—unbeaten Group K winners (7 pts, conceded once) with superior individuals (Díaz, Rodríguez, Muñoz) and no injuries; Opta simulations and the market both land ~64-65% for Colombia, matching my read, so there's no edge backing the favorite at -188. Ghana are blunt (2 goals, 2.86 xG in the group) but Queiroz's disciplined low block frustrated England, and Colombia's habit of grinding out tight 1-0s (24 shots, 0 goals vs Portugal) keeps upset/penalty variance live. Ghana at ~+700 is the only positive-EV option under my 14% estimate versus the ~12.5% implied, so a small longshot value stake is the disciplined play.",partially_correct,True,neither,I underweighted how completely Ghana's attacking impotence (2 goals all tournament) capped their realistic win chance—my 14% was likely a touch generous versus the market's ~12.5%.,"Knockout upset variance and Colombia's trouble breaking down low blocks, which I used to justify the Ghana longshot even though Colombia still ground out their trademark 1-0.","yes—no_bet, because both the market and Opta matched my own read, so my thin Ghana edge was within noise and didn't justify staking on a longshot.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.64,0.1976,0.4462871026284195,0.64,1.54,4.0,7.0,0.6231,0.2399,0.1371,86,0,team_a_win,15.0,-15.0,True,False,True,0.0029
claude,m87,knockout,round_of_32,Argentina,Cabo Verde,3,2,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.84,0.12,0.04,no_bet,0,"Argentina are reigning champions in excellent form (three group wins, eight goals, Messi leading scorers with six) versus debutants Cape Verde, who reached the Round of 32 on defensive resilience but minimal attacking output and now face a clear step up in opponent quality. Market consensus (Kalshi ~87%, bet365 -600, Oddsshark implied ~85-95%) closely matches my ~84% estimate, so backing Argentina carries negative EV after vig, while the draw (~12%) and the upset (~4%) offer no clear enough edge to justify a stake. Cape Verde's 0-0 vs Spain shows they can frustrate elite sides, but that value is already priced in, so the disciplined play is to pass.",correct,True,neither,"Cape Verde's counter-attacking/transition scoring threat — they had already put two past Uruguay in the group stage, a signal I dismissed by framing their run as purely defensive; scoring twice against Argentina shows I underrated their ability to hurt elite sides.","The 'one-sided mismatch' narrative and Argentina's defensive control — I assumed the quality gap would yield a comfortable, low-danger win rather than the open 3-2 thriller it became.","no — my no-bet on the moneyline was disciplined and the near-upset confirms Argentina at ~-600 offered poor value, though in hindsight a both-teams-to-score or over 2.5 goals bet would have won.",0.75,0,team_a_win,True,0.84,0.0416,0.1743533871447778,0.84,1.15,8.5,20.0,0.8384,0.1134,0.0482,87,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m88,knockout,round_of_32,Australia,Egypt,1,1,draw,penalties,team_b,0.29,0.35,0.36,draw,20,"Sportsbooks (FanDuel/bet365) price Egypt ~+150, draw ~+190, Australia ~+230, implying de-vigged probabilities near Egypt 38% / draw 33% / Australia 29%; Egypt is a modest favorite on Salah's and Marmoush's individual quality. I nudge Egypt down and the draw up because Salah is managing a hamstring strain (cleared to feature but possibly not starting), Australia's profile is a classic draw-magnet (elite defensive structure, failed to score in two of three group games), and books set a very low goal total (o/u 1.5-2.5) signaling a tight, cautious knockout tie. A small stake on the draw at +190 is the only outcome offering marginal positive expected value against my estimate; the market is otherwise efficient, so the stake is kept conservative.",correct,True,neither,"I underweighted Australia's ability to actually score in a knockout — they got on the scoresheet (1-1) despite my 'chronic shortage of attacking threat' framing that implied a 0-0-type grind; it didn't hurt the draw bet, but my goal-suppression read was slightly too strong.","Salah's hamstring as a dampener on Egypt — I shaded Egypt down for it, yet Egypt still produced enough to draw and then advanced on penalties, so the downgrade was a touch aggressive.","no — the process was sound: I correctly identified a defensively-solid, low-scoring, Salah-compromised tie as more draw-prone than the market priced, and the small-stake draw bet at +190 profited.",0.8,2,team_b_win,False,0.35,0.6362,1.0498221244986776,0.36,3.3,2.9,2.5,0.2892,0.3291,0.3817,88,2,team_b_win,20.0,38.0,True,True,True,0.0209
claude,m89,knockout,round_of_16,Paraguay,France,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.06,0.15,0.79,no_bet,0,"Team A is Paraguay (W74), Team B is France (W77). France are deserved heavy favorites — four wins, no losses, Mbappé leading the Golden Boot race, and elite attacking depth (Dembélé, Olise, Barcola) behind a solid back line, while Paraguay are a defensively stubborn Cinderella who beat Germany on penalties but carry attacking injury doubts (Enciso, Alderete). My numbers sit essentially on the market/Kalshi consensus (~80% France, ~14% draw, ~6% Paraguay), so France at -500/-600 is clearly negative EV, and the razor-thin edges on the draw or a Paraguay upset shrink to sub-1% Kelly stakes — the disciplined call is to pass.",correct,True,neither,"none — if anything, the 1-0 vindicated my sub-market view that Paraguay's low block would suppress France's scoring rather than allow the projected 3-0 blowout.","none material; Paraguay's attacking-injury doubts (Enciso, Alderete) mattered less than expected since the game hinged on their defense, which held France to a single goal.","no — France won but only 1-0, and the -EV France price plus sub-1% Kelly edges on the draw/Paraguay make no_bet process-correct regardless of the result.",0.8,2,team_b_win,True,0.79,0.0701999999999999,0.2357223335210698,0.79,18.0,7.0,1.18,0.0531,0.1366,0.8103,89,2,team_b_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m90,knockout,round_of_16,Canada,Morocco,0,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.2,0.28,0.52,no_bet,0,"Team A is Canada (W73, beat South Africa 1-0) and Team B is Morocco (W75, beat Netherlands on penalties). Morocco is the clear side to back — 2022 semifinalists, AFCON champions on a long unbeaten run, deeper and more talented (Hakimi, Diaz, Saibari), and 3-1 all-time vs Canada — while Canada is organized and dangerous through Jonathan David but inconsistent and missing Kone. My estimates land essentially on top of the de-vigged market (Morocco ~53%, draw ~27%, Canada ~19%) and prediction-market prices (Kalshi ~55/27/18), so there is no exploitable edge; the only marginal value is the draw, given both teams' strong low-scoring/under trends and a cautious favorite prone to extra time, but the edge is too thin to stake.",correct,True,neither,"Morocco's ceiling — I underweighted the quality/depth gap and their ability to convert dominance into a comfortable multi-goal win, not just a narrow one.","The 'two organized, low-scoring sides = tight, draw-prone game' thesis, plus Canada's flattering underlying xG numbers, which pulled my draw probability up and my picture of the margin toward a coin-flip grind.","no — no_bet was the disciplined and correct call, and the marginal draw lean I declined to stake would have lost, so restraint was validated.",0.7,2,team_b_win,True,0.52,0.3488,0.6539264674066639,0.52,4.9,3.65,1.77,0.1957,0.2627,0.5417,90,2,team_b_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m91,knockout,round_of_16,Mexico,England,2,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.33,0.29,0.38,team_a_win,25,"England (FIFA #4) have the superior squad and Kane in historic form (5 goals in 4 games), so the market rightly makes them slight favorites (~+140, implied ~40%). But Mexico enters unbeaten with four clean sheets and, crucially, plays at the Azteca (2,200m altitude, hostile crowd) where they've lost just twice in 89 competitive matches and no World Cup side has beaten them in 10 attempts—an edge markets tend to underprice, especially with England's right side depleted by injuries (James, Quansah out, Rice hampered). At plus-money (~+205/+210), Mexico offers modest value, so I take a small disciplined stake rather than backing a fully-priced favorite.",partially_correct,True,neither,England's individual attacking quality (Kane/Bellingham/wide pace) was decisive enough to score three away at altitude—I underweighted how much elite finishing can neutralize a fortress venue.,"The Azteca altitude/home-crowd 'fortress' effect, which I let push Mexico up and drive the bet even though it wasn't enough to overcome the talent gap.","yes—I backed Mexico on a ~2% thin edge while my own model made England the modal pick, so I should have chosen no_bet or a much smaller stake rather than $25 against my own favorite.",0.72,2,team_b_win,True,0.38,0.5774,0.9675840262617056,0.38,3.45,3.2,2.25,0.2769,0.2985,0.4246,91,2,team_b_win,25.0,-25.0,True,False,True,0.0531
claude,m92,knockout,round_of_16,Brazil,Norway,1,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.5,0.27,0.23,team_b_win,15,"The de-vigged market consensus is roughly Brazil 52% / draw 26% / Norway 22%, and Brazil is the higher-quality, better-defended side (0.74 xGA per game), so this is close to a fair line. I lean marginally toward Norway being underpriced because Brazil's midfield is depleted (Paqueta out, Raphinha only bench-fit), their fullbacks are exploitable by Nusa/Odegaard, and Haaland has a strong scoring record versus Brazil's specific center-backs (6 goals in 11 vs Gabriel). Norway to win outright at the best price (+360 ≈ 21.7% implied) offers a thin positive-EV value lean, so I stake a small amount rather than backing the efficient Brazil/draw prices.",partially_correct,True,lucky,"I underweighted how thoroughly Brazil's depleted midfield (Paqueta out, Raphinha unfit) would fail to control the game, letting Norway's Haaland-Odegaard axis dictate a full win rather than just a scare.","Brazil's pedigree and defensive record (0.74 xGA/game, clean sheets) — I let their class anchor them at 0.50 despite citing structural fragilities that my own reasoning suggested were more decisive.","no — the Norway value lean was correct on process and the stake was appropriately small for a thin edge, so increasing it based on one favorable result would just be outcome bias.",0.65,0,team_a_win,False,0.23,0.9158,1.4696759700589417,0.5,1.91,3.6,4.1,0.5009,0.2658,0.2333,92,0,team_a_win,15.0,46.49999999999999,True,True,True,-0.0032999999999999
claude,m93,knockout,round_of_16,USA,Belgium,1,4,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.38,0.27,0.35,team_a_win,15,"The market is essentially a pick 'em (Opta: USA 37.2% / Belgium 36.5%; no-vig book lines ~36% each, draw ~28%), so there's no large edge in any direction. I nudge slightly toward the USA on home advantage in Seattle, a partisan crowd, strong tournament form (2+ goals in all four games), and Balogun's reinstatement, against a Belgium side that has underwhelmed and needed a late miracle to survive Senegal. The best available USA price (+170, ~37% breakeven) gives a thin positive-EV lean, so I take only a small stake given genuine uncertainty and Belgium's higher individual ceiling and lopsided head-to-head history.",incorrect,False,neither,"Belgium's individual attacking quality and the predictive weight of their recent 5-2 head-to-head win, which I explicitly discounted as 'just friendlies' but which signaled a real talent gap that showed up as a 3-goal margin.","USA's home-field advantage and partisan Seattle crowd, plus their tournament goal-scoring form, which I let nudge me to the wrong side of a pick-'em market.","yes—I would have chosen no_bet or a small Belgium lean, respecting the individual-quality and head-to-head signals over the home bump.",0.6,0,team_a_win,False,0.35,0.6398,1.0498221244986778,0.38,2.6,3.4,2.75,0.369,0.2822,0.3489,93,0,team_a_win,15.0,-15.0,True,False,False,0.011
claude,m94,knockout,round_of_16,Portugal,Spain,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.24,0.29,0.47,draw,20,"Market and models converge on Spain as clear favorites (Opta 49.2%, Kalshi 51%, bet365 -111), driven by four clean sheets and a 34-game unbeaten run; my Spain and Portugal numbers essentially match the market, so neither offers value. The one soft edge is the draw at +250 (implied ~28.6%): this Iberian derby has produced repeated draws (3-3 in 2018, 2-2 in 2025, plus 0-0/1-1 meetings), both sides have played cautiously (Portugal 0-0 vs Colombia, Spain 0-0 vs Cape Verde), and Spain's clean sheets came against weaker attacks than Portugal's, so I shade the 90-min draw slightly higher than the market and stake small given the thin edge and high knockout variance.",partially_correct,True,neither,"Spain's quality edge means a tight, low-scoring game favors them to nick it 1-0 rather than stay level; I treated 'tight' as 'likely drawn' when tight matches usually break toward the better side.","The Iberian derby's history of high draw frequency and both teams' cautious tendencies, which led me to shade the draw above the market and stake on it.","yes, I would have chosen no_bet since my draw lean rested on a soft qualitative edge that was quantitatively negligible against an efficient market.",0.7,2,team_b_win,True,0.47,0.4226,0.7550225842780328,0.47,4.1,3.6,1.91,0.2333,0.2658,0.5009,94,2,team_b_win,20.0,-20.0,True,False,True,0.0242
claude,m95,knockout,round_of_16,Switzerland,Colombia,0,0,draw,penalties,team_a,0.28,0.31,0.41,team_a_win,25,"The market, Opta (Colombia 41.9% in 90 min), and Kalshi all converge on Colombia as slight favorites (~42%), a draw ~31%, and Switzerland ~27% — an unusually tight, low-scoring knockout between two mean defenses (Colombia conceded 1 in 4; Switzerland on 3 straight wins). I nudge Switzerland up modestly because Colombia has failed to beat any European side in 2026 (D1 L2 vs Croatia/France/Portugal), while Switzerland brings form (unbeaten in 10), an emerging Manzambi, and a third consecutive match at BC Place. At the best-available 11/4 (3.75) that lean creates thin positive EV, so I take a small value stake on Switzerland rather than the vig-laden favorite.",partially_correct,True,neither,"My own reasoning flagged a low-scoring, extra-time-bound tie between two elite defenses, yet I underweighted that this pointed to the draw as the outcome most likely to actually hit in regulation (0-0), which it did.","The thin line-shopping 'value' on Switzerland at 11/4 plus the Colombia-can't-beat-Europeans fade — I let a marginal, self-generated edge push me onto the underdog to win outright, when Colombia (my modeled favorite) advanced.",yes — consistent with my own tight/low-scoring read I should have backed the draw or chosen no_bet rather than betting Switzerland to win a game I expected to be decided by a coin-flip shootout.,0.8,2,team_b_win,False,0.31,0.7225999999999999,1.171182981502945,0.41,3.45,3.2,2.2,0.2743,0.2957,0.4301,95,2,team_b_win,25.0,-25.0,True,False,True,0.0057
claude,m96,knockout,round_of_16,Argentina,Egypt,3,2,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.68,0.2,0.12,team_b_win,5,"Argentina are deserved heavy favorites (Opta 69.1%, market ~70% de-vigged), and their money line (-290) and the draw (+370) both price in a bigger edge than I'd give them, especially after they were nearly upset by Cape Verde and are carrying fatigue/injury concerns (Messi 39 and admittedly tired, no subs left last game, González/Medina doubtful). My Egypt estimate of ~12% (aligned with Opta's 12.3%) sits above the +900 implied ~10%, making Egypt the only positive-EV option, so I take a deliberately small, high-variance longshot stake while passing on the -EV favorite and draw. This is a speculative thin-edge bet, not a confidence play — Argentina remain far more likely to win.",correct,True,neither,"I failed to separate Egypt's realistic ceiling (staying competitive and scoring) from what my bet actually needed (an outright win); the 3-2 mirrored the Cape Verde game almost exactly, which my qualitative reasoning had flagged but my bet ignored.","Argentina's fatigue and defensive vulnerability as a driver of an Egypt victory — those factors translated into Egypt goals, not into Egypt actually winning.","yes — not because the longshot lost (that was the ~88% base case), but because the edge was within my estimate's noise and Egypt's plausible upside was scoring rather than winning, so I'd pass on the money line or express it via a goals/both-teams-to-score market instead.",0.7,0,team_a_win,True,0.68,0.1567999999999999,0.3856624808119846,0.68,1.37,4.7,9.0,0.6927,0.2019,0.1054,96,0,team_a_win,5.0,-5.0,True,False,True,0.0146
claude,m97,knockout,quarter_final,France,Morocco,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.61,0.25,0.14,no_bet,0,"France are the tournament's most complete side (unbeaten, 14-2 goal difference, deep attack led by in-form Mbappé), while Morocco lose top scorer Ismael Saibari to a hamstring injury, blunting their attack; France's minor concern is Tchouaméni's thigh, well covered by Koné/Rabiot. My regulation-time estimates (France ~61% / Draw ~25% / Morocco ~14%) sit right on top of the vig-free market and the Opta (60.9%) and Kalshi (62/24/14) consensus, so I have no informational edge. At FanDuel's -175 / +290 / +550 lines every outcome carries negative expected value after the bookmaker margin, so the disciplined call is to pass.",correct,True,neither,none,"The draw probability (0.25) was likely a touch high; with Saibari out, Morocco's attack was gutted, and the clean sheet suggests a decisive France regulation win was a bit more probable than I allowed.","no, because no_bet reflected a genuine lack of edge against efficient market pricing, and the outcome landing on the favorite does not retroactively make betting into negative EV correct.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.61,0.2342,0.4942963218147801,0.61,1.57,3.85,6.0,0.599,0.2443,0.1567,97,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m98,knockout,quarter_final,Spain,Belgium,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.58,0.24,0.18,team_a_win,30,"Spain are clear favorites in this LA quarterfinal: the only side yet to concede at the tournament, reigning European champions, and fully fit, whereas Belgium are potent in attack (De Bruyne, Lukaku, De Ketelaere, Trossard) but defensively leaky (conceded in three straight wins) and have lost midfielder Amadou Onana to a tournament-ending ACL injury. My probabilities sit close to the market (Spain ~-155, Draw +290, Belgium +425 imply ~58/24/18 after removing vig), so there is little pure value, but Spain is my highest-conviction outcome, hence a modest stake rather than a large one. Belgium's ceiling and Spain's tendency to win tight (1-0 vs Portugal) keep meaningful draw/upset probability, so I avoid overcommitting.",correct,True,neither,"Belgium's attacking talent breaching Spain's defense — Spain conceded for the first time in the tournament, which I treated as unlikely given their clean-sheet streak.","Spain's 'yet to concede' record; I leaned on it as a signal of defensive impregnability, but they gave up a goal as I'd half-flagged Belgium could.",no — the pick was correct and the conservative stake was appropriate given the short price and the genuinely competitive one-goal margin; betting bigger in hindsight would just be outcome bias.,0.8,0,team_a_win,True,0.58,0.2664,0.5447271754416722,0.58,1.63,3.9,5.5,0.5833,0.2438,0.1729,98,0,team_a_win,30.0,18.9,True,True,False,-0.0033
claude,m99,knockout,quarter_final,Argentina,Switzerland,3,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.56,0.25,0.19,team_b_win,15,"Argentina are rightful favorites — defending champions, Messi leading the Golden Boot with 8 goals, and an 11-match unbeaten World Cup streak — with both the de-vigged market and Opta's supercomputer placing them near 56-57% in regulation. But Argentina have been defensively fragile (conceding from 56% of shots on target faced, needing late 3-2 escapes vs Cape Verde and Egypt), while Switzerland haven't trailed once all tournament and match up well as a disciplined defensive side, so I nudge the Swiss slightly above the ~18% implied upset price. That plus-money (+450) edge is small and speculative, so I stake only a modest $15 on Switzerland rather than the negative-EV favorite or draw.",correct,True,neither,"The attacking-quality gap (Messi and Argentina's forwards) was large enough to break down even a disciplined defense, making a comfortable margin more likely than my 'this will be tight' framing implied.","Switzerland's 'never trailed all tournament' defensive record, which had been built against weaker attacks and which I used to manufacture a thin value lean.","yes — I'd go no_bet, not because the underdog lost (an ~18% shot loses most of the time) but because the edge I claimed was too thin and narrative-driven to justify staking value.",0.7,0,team_a_win,True,0.56,0.2922,0.579818495252942,0.56,1.69,3.55,5.5,0.5607,0.2669,0.1723,99,0,team_a_win,15.0,-15.0,True,False,True,0.0176999999999999
claude,m100,knockout,quarter_final,Norway,England,1,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.24,0.26,0.5,team_b_win,25,"Market consensus across bet365, ESPN and Kalshi puts England (Team B) near 50% in the 90-minute market, the draw ~26%, and Norway ~24%, and I don't see a strong reason to deviate: England carry the deeper squad, the calmer defense (~0.85 xGA/game over their last 10) and big-game penalty reliability, while Norway's route to a win runs heavily through Haaland. The main risk is England's reshuffled back line (Quansah suspended, Reece James/right-back doubts) against the tournament's form striker, which keeps this competitive and 'both teams to score' likely. England is the highest-probability single outcome and some models (e.g. Squawka's 65% to advance) suggest their win price is marginally underrated, so I take a modest stake rather than a large one given the thin pricing edge.",correct,True,neither,"none — the 2-1 scoreline matched my modal read almost exactly: England's quality edge decisive, both teams scoring, Norway on the board via their one reliable threat","England's defensive fragility (Quansah suspension, right-back injuries) — I flagged it as the main risk, but the reshuffled back line conceded only once and held up better than I feared","no — England was the correct and highest-probability side and the modest stake fit a thin pricing edge, though one winning bet doesn't confirm the edge was real",0.8,2,team_b_win,True,0.5,0.3752,0.6931471805599453,0.5,3.8,3.5,1.95,0.2479,0.2691,0.483,100,2,team_b_win,25.0,23.75,True,True,False,0.017
claude,m101,knockout,semi_final,France,Spain,0,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.41,0.29,0.3,team_b_win,15,"The Opta supercomputer and betting markets make France slight favorites in regulation (~41-44% win vs ~29% Spain, ~29% draw), driven by France's 6/6 tournament form and Mbappé's 8 goals, so my probabilities sit close to the efficient market. I take a small-stake value lean on Spain because late-breaking, France-specific injury doubts (Saliba and Upamecano missed Saturday training, Tchouaméni's groin, plus Mbappé's ankle scare) may be underpriced, and Spain—fully fit, defensively elite with one goal conceded all tournament—has won the last two meetings and 7 of the last 10. The edge is thin and Kelly-sized small, hence the low stake rather than a larger commitment.",partially_correct,False,lucky,"Spain's structural/stylistic dominance in this specific matchup — the Rodri-led double pivot denying France transition moments was something I explicitly identified as the defining battle and then failed to price, and the head-to-head record (7 of last 10, last two meetings) was matchup signal rather than noise.","France's raw attacking totals (16 goals, Mbappé's 8) and Opta's supercomputer output — the goals were accumulated against Sweden, Paraguay and Morocco, and I anchored my probabilities to the model/market instead of to my own stated reasoning.","yes — the deeper error was betting Spain while my stated numbers made France the favorite; if I believed the injury and matchup edge enough to stake on it, my probabilities should have said so (roughly Spain 0.38 / draw 0.28 / France 0.34) and the stake should have been larger.",0.6,0,team_a_win,False,0.3,0.7422,1.203972804325936,0.41,2.35,3.25,3.15,0.405,0.2928,0.3021,101,0,team_a_win,15.0,32.25,True,True,True,-0.0020999999999999
claude,m102,knockout,semi_final,England,Argentina,1,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.37,0.3,0.33,no_bet,0,"Both squads are near full strength (England miss only the suspended Quansah and injured Henderson; Messi recovered from a minor eye issue), so I side with the consensus that England are marginal favourites — deeper squad, neutral indoor Atlanta setting, and an Argentina side that was second-best to Switzerland until a red card, having gone to extra time twice. My 90-minute line of 37/30/33 sits almost exactly on the market (FanDuel England +175 / draw +185 / Argentina +200 implies ~35/33/32 after removing vig; Kalshi 37/34/32; Opta 38.9/27/34.1). The only visible gap is the draw looking a shade rich, which is a fade, not a bet, and England at +175 yields roughly a 1% Kelly stake — well inside my own model error, so no bet is the disciplined call.",incorrect,True,neither,"I treated Argentina's narrow, ride-your-luck knockout wins as evidence of fragility rather than as a repeatable big-game skill — closing out tight matches is precisely what this squad has done for four years, and a one-goal semifinal is exactly the environment where that shows up.","England's squad depth and the 'neutral indoor Atlanta setting' advantage, plus the Switzerland red-card narrative, which I let discount Argentina more than a 90-minute sample deserved.","no — I had this at 37/30/33 against a market at roughly 35/33/32, and a single realization of a near-coin-flip reveals no mispricing I could have acted on; no_bet remains the correct decision ex ante.",0.45,0,team_a_win,False,0.33,0.6758,1.1086626245216111,0.37,2.55,3.0,3.05,0.3723,0.3164,0.3113,102,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
claude,m103,knockout,third_place,France,England,4,6,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.51,0.25,0.24,team_a_win,15,"Market prices are near France 50% / draw 25% / England 25% (best available 1.99 / 4.00 / 4.03), and I sit only marginally above that on France: extra recovery day, deeper bench, one England win in the last nine head-to-heads, and a motivation asymmetry (Deschamps' final match in charge plus Mbappé tied with Messi at 8 goals in the Golden Boot race, versus Tuchel already pivoting toward Euro 2028 amid reported camp tension). Offsetting that: Saliba is out, France failed to score for the first time all tournament against Spain, and heavy rotation on both sides makes a bronze final one of the noisiest fixtures to model — so I shade the draw slightly down and keep the stake small. Edge is thin enough that this is close to a no-bet; $15 reflects roughly Kelly-scaled confidence, not conviction.",incorrect,True,neither,"I named the 'bronze finals run loose and high-scoring' thesis but failed to apply it to the winner — with Saliba out and both defenses rotated, England's attack (Kane, Bellingham) was more likely to exploit the chaos than my England-had-weaker-metrics framing allowed.","France's soft edges — extra recovery day, bench depth, and the Deschamps/Mbappé motivation asymmetry — which mattered little in a 10-goal shootout decided by open, undisciplined defending.","yes — no_bet; I already flagged the edge over market as razor-thin in an admittedly noisy fixture, and that combination doesn't justify staking regardless of which side won.",0.55,0,team_a_win,False,0.24,0.9002,1.4271163556401458,0.51,2.05,3.55,3.55,0.4641,0.268,0.268,103,0,team_a_win,15.0,-15.0,True,False,False,0.0458999999999999
claude,m104,knockout,final,Spain,Argentina,1,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.44,0.31,0.25,no_bet,0,"Spain's collective control and tournament-best defensive record—one goal conceded in seven matches—give them the edge, while Argentina have needed several difficult knockout-stage escapes despite Messi's eight goals and four assists. The available regulation odds imply roughly 44% Spain, 32% draw and 25% Argentina after removing the bookmaker margin, closely matching my forecast, so I see no meaningful betting value.",correct,True,neither,I underweighted how strongly Spain's defensive control would suppress Argentina's scoring chances.,Argentina's ability to survive difficult knockout matches and turn a close final in their favor.,"no, because Spain winning does not show that the pre-match odds offered enough value to justify a bet.",0.9,0,team_a_win,True,0.44,0.4722,0.8209805520698302,0.44,2.25,3.0,3.6,0.4211,0.3158,0.2632,104,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m01,group,group,Mexico,South Africa,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.67,0.21,0.12,no_bet,0,"Mexico are clear favorites because they are hosting in Mexico City, enter in stronger recent form, and market odds around Mexico -240 imply roughly a two-thirds-plus win chance after removing vig. However, the price looks efficient rather than clearly +EV: South Africa have reportedly adapted early to altitude, the opening-match pressure raises draw risk, and South Africa’s coach frames Mexico as the group’s strongest team but not unbeatable.",correct,True,neither,I slightly underweighted Mexico's ability to turn home advantage and superior quality into a controlled two-goal win rather than a narrow or draw-prone match.,I gave a bit too much weight to opening-match pressure and South Africa's altitude adaptation as reasons for draw risk.,"no, because the Mexico-win read was right but the no-bet decision was based on price/value rather than simply predicting the winner.",0.78,0,team_a_win,True,0.67,0.1673999999999999,0.4004775665971252,0.67,1.4,4.6,8.0,0.676,0.2057,0.1183,1,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m02,group,group,Korea Republic,Czechia,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.35,0.32,0.33,draw,8,"Market odds price this as almost even, with South Korea only a slight favorite and the draw around 3.14 to +215 depending on book. South Korea have the better FIFA ranking and Son-led attacking upside, but Bae Jun-ho is doubtful, while Czechia bring physicality, set pieces, recent form, and a pragmatic style that makes a low-scoring opener likely. My edge on the draw is small, so the stake is conservative.",partially_correct,True,neither,"I underweighted Korea Republic's attacking upside and ability to turn a narrow, balanced matchup into an outright win.",I gave too much weight to the draw scenario and Czechia's physical/set-piece profile as stabilizing factors.,"yes, I would remove the T-24h draw bet and either keep the T-30min no-bet or make only a very small Korea Republic win bet, because the final result supports the late lean but not a strong edge.",0.78,0,team_a_win,True,0.35,0.6338,1.0498221244986778,0.35,2.55,3.15,2.85,0.3698,0.2994,0.3309,2,0,team_a_win,8.0,-8.0,True,False,True,0.0206
chatgpt,m03,group,group,USA,Paraguay,4,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.5,0.27,0.23,no_bet,0,"USA has the home-field edge, a higher FIFA ranking, and reports say all 26 players are available, including Chris Richards, so I make them a modest favorite. Paraguay are dangerous rather than overmatched: they were strong in CONMEBOL qualifying, including wins over Argentina and Brazil, and their compact, counterattacking style increases draw risk. Market odds already price USA around a narrow favorite, so I do not see enough edge to risk the $100 budget.",correct,True,neither,I underweighted USA's attacking upside and the possibility that home-field momentum could turn a narrow edge into a multi-goal win.,I gave too much weight to Paraguay's qualifying resilience and draw-suppressing defensive style.,"yes, I would have placed a small-to-moderate bet on team_a_win because the pre-match edge appears stronger than I priced it.",0.74,0,team_a_win,True,0.5,0.3758,0.6931471805599453,0.5,1.9523809523809523,3.4,4.2,0.4904,0.2816,0.228,3,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m04,group,group,Canada,Bosnia and Herzegovina,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.5,0.29,0.21,draw,12,"Canada should be favored because of home advantage, higher ranking, and a stronger attacking core, but Alphonso Davies being out/limited and Bosnia's experienced Dzeko-led side make this less one-sided than the market headline suggests. With Canada priced around -125 and the draw around +250 to +255, my forecast sees only a small edge on the draw, so I would keep the stake modest.",correct,True,neither,I underweighted Bosnia and Herzegovina's ability to keep the match compact and turn it into a low-scoring draw despite Canada’s home advantage.,I overweighted Canada’s home advantage and attacking edge as reasons they were more likely to convert pressure into a win.,"no, because the draw stake was modest and matched the idea that Canada were favorites but the market may have underestimated stalemate risk.",0.78,0,team_a_win,False,0.29,0.7982,1.2378743560016174,0.5,1.8333333333333333,3.65,4.7,0.5284,0.2654,0.2061,4,0,team_a_win,12.0,31.8,True,True,True,0.0245999999999999
chatgpt,m05,group,group,Qatar,Switzerland,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.06,0.16,0.78,no_bet,0,"Switzerland look clearly stronger: FIFA lists them 19th while Qatar are 56th, and Switzerland also have the stronger squad profile and recent World Cup pedigree. Market odds I found make Switzerland a very heavy favorite, but the -550 price is close to my estimated fair probability after accounting for draw risk, so I would not force a bet at this price.",incorrect,False,neither,I underweighted Qatar's ability to keep the match compact and turn the game into a low-scoring draw rather than a quality-gap-driven Switzerland win.,"I overweighted Switzerland's FIFA ranking, squad strength, and World Cup pedigree as translating into a high win probability in a single group-stage match.","no, because the original no-bet decision was still prudent even though the probability forecast was too confident on Switzerland.",0.72,2,team_b_win,False,0.16,1.3176,1.8325814637483104,0.78,12.0,6.5,1.2222222222222223,0.079,0.1458,0.7753,5,2,team_b_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m06,group,group,Brazil,Morocco,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.55,0.25,0.2,no_bet,0,"Brazil are slight-to-moderate favorites based on market odds and elite attacking depth, but Morocco are not a typical longshot: they are ranked just behind Brazil and have recent World Cup pedigree. Morocco’s injury concerns make a Brazil win the most likely outcome, but the available 1X2 market appears close to fair, so I would pass rather than force a low-edge bet.",partially_correct,True,neither,I underweighted Morocco's ability to keep the match controlled enough to turn Brazil's edge into only a draw.,I overweighted Brazil's attacking depth and the idea that Morocco's injury concerns would translate into a decisive Brazil advantage.,"no, because the original no_bet decision was appropriate given that the draw was a meaningful live possibility and the Brazil edge was not large enough.",0.76,0,team_a_win,False,0.25,0.905,1.3862943611198906,0.55,1.598802395209581,3.9,5.0,0.5781,0.237,0.1849,6,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m07,group,group,Haiti,Scotland,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.16,0.22,0.62,no_bet,0,"Scotland rate clearly stronger: FIFA’s latest ranking has Scotland 42nd and Haiti 83rd, and market prices also make Scotland a solid favorite. Haiti’s counterattacking pace and recent improvement keep the upset/draw chances meaningful, but at roughly -190 to -275 the Scotland price looks too short for a virtual bet.",correct,True,neither,I underweighted how tight and low-scoring the match could be despite Scotland being the stronger side.,I slightly overweighted Scotland's overall quality translating into a clearer margin.,"no, because the Scotland win probability was directionally right but the narrow 1-0 result still supports the earlier no-bet/value caution.",0.78,2,team_b_win,True,0.62,0.2183999999999999,0.4780358009429998,0.62,6.25,4.75,1.5882352941176472,0.16,0.2105,0.6295,7,2,team_b_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m08,group,group,Australia,Türkiye,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.22,0.27,0.51,team_a_win,15,"Türkiye are the better side on talent and enter as the deserved favorite, with Arda Güler, Kenan Yildiz and Hakan Çalhanoğlu giving them more midfield/attacking upside, while Australia are missing Riley McGree and have some uncertainty around Mohamed Toure. However, Australia are still close in FIFA ranking, tactically organized under Tony Popovic, and market prices around Australia +420 imply a lower chance than my 22% estimate, so the only small value is a cautious Australia upset bet.",partially_correct,False,lucky,I underweighted Australia's defensive organization and ability to turn a disciplined low-risk game into a clean-sheet win rather than just a narrow upset possibility.,I gave too much weight to Türkiye's attacking talent advantage and assumed it would translate into control or goals.,"yes, I would still treat Australia as the value side but raise the stake because the upset case was stronger than I priced.",0.72,2,team_b_win,False,0.22,0.9414,1.5141277326297755,0.51,5.0,3.75,1.7,0.1896,0.2528,0.5576,8,2,team_b_win,15.0,60.0,True,True,True,0.0304
chatgpt,m09,group,group,Germany,Curaçao,7,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.91,0.06,0.03,no_bet,0,"Germany are a major favorite: they are ranked No. 10 versus Curaçao at No. 82, have far greater squad depth, and market odds price Germany around -2000 on the 90-minute money line. I still leave a small upset/draw chance because Curaçao are fully fit, have no-pressure debutant upside, and Germany’s very short price does not offer enough value for a win bet.",correct,True,neither,"I underweighted how large the quality gap could become over 90 minutes, especially Germany's ability to turn dominance into a blowout rather than just a routine win.",I gave slightly too much weight to Curaçao's no-pressure debutant upside as a reason to reserve draw/upset probability.,"no, because the Germany win call was correct but the pre-match price was still so short that no_bet remained defensible from a value perspective.",0.88,0,team_a_win,True,0.91,0.0125999999999999,0.0943106794712412,0.91,1.04,19.0,34.0,0.9214,0.0504,0.0282,9,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m10,group,group,Netherlands,Japan,2,2,draw,regulation,,0.5,0.27,0.23,team_a_win,12,"The Netherlands rate modestly stronger on market odds, FIFA ranking/Elo indicators, and squad depth, with Memphis Depay and Bart Verbruggen reported fit. Japan are a dangerous, well-drilled side with enough attacking quality to make this close, but the reported absences of Wataru Endo, Kaoru Mitoma, and Takumi Minamino reduce their upset probability. The edge is small, so I would make only a modest virtual bet on the Netherlands win.",partially_correct,True,neither,I underweighted Japan's ability to stay dangerous and convert the match into a high-scoring draw despite the Netherlands' overall squad edge.,I gave too much weight to the Netherlands' superiority in depth and Japan's reported absences as reasons to favor a narrow Netherlands win.,"yes, I would either reduce the stake further or choose no_bet because the pre-match edge on Netherlands was too thin for a win-only bet.",0.82,0,team_a_win,False,0.27,0.8357999999999999,1.3093333199837622,0.5,2.0,3.5,3.6,0.4701,0.2687,0.2612,10,0,team_a_win,12.0,-12.0,True,False,False,0.0298999999999999
chatgpt,m11,group,group,Côte d'Ivoire,Ecuador,1,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.285,0.325,0.39,team_a_win,12,"Ecuador rate as the slightly stronger side because of their elite defensive qualifying profile, recent long unbeaten run, and market-favorite status, but their low scoring tendency keeps draw risk high. Côte d'Ivoire also have strong defensive form, recent wins over South Korea, Scotland, and France, and a better-than-market upset chance at roughly +275 to +280, so the small value play is team_a_win rather than the most likely outcome.",partially_correct,True,neither,"I underweighted Côte d'Ivoire's ability to turn a low-scoring, defense-first match into a narrow win rather than just a draw-value scenario.",I gave too much weight to Ecuador's defensive qualifying profile and overall market-favorite status.,"no, because the pre-match logic already identified Côte d'Ivoire as the value side despite Ecuador being the more likely team on raw strength.",0.78,2,team_b_win,False,0.285,0.7689500000000001,1.2552660987134867,0.39,3.5,2.75,2.4,0.268,0.3411,0.3909,11,2,team_b_win,12.0,30.0,True,True,True,0.0169999999999999
chatgpt,m12,group,group,Sweden,Tunisia,5,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.47,0.29,0.24,team_a_win,28,"Sweden are modest favorites because their attacking ceiling with Viktor Gyökeres and Alexander Isak is higher, and Reuters reports all 26 Sweden squad members are fit. Tunisia’s qualifying defense was excellent, but the recent 5-0 warm-up loss to Belgium and Sweden’s edge in both market odds and Elo make Sweden the slightly better side, though the draw risk is meaningful.",correct,False,neither,I underweighted Sweden's attacking mismatch and the possibility that their forward quality could turn a modest edge into a decisive blowout.,I gave too much weight to Tunisia's qualifying defensive record and draw resistance.,"yes, I would still bet Sweden but with a larger stake because the original 28% stake was too cautious relative to the actual team-quality gap.",0.78,0,team_a_win,True,0.47,0.4226,0.7550225842780328,0.47,1.9,3.4,4.333333333333334,0.5007,0.2798,0.2195,12,0,team_a_win,28.0,25.2,True,True,False,-0.0307
chatgpt,m13,group,group,Spain,Cabo Verde,0,0,draw,regulation,,0.88,0.08,0.04,no_bet,0,"Spain are the much stronger side: FIFA lists Spain 2nd and Cabo Verde 67th, and multiple previews price Spain as a heavy favorite while noting Cabo Verde are World Cup debutants. However, available 1X2 prices around Spain -1011 to -1250 imply roughly 89–92% before/after vig, which is close to or slightly above my 88% estimate, so I do not see enough positive expected value on Spain’s win at the quoted market price.",partially_correct,False,neither,"I underweighted the probability of a low-scoring, high-variance match where Cabo Verde could defend deep and hold Spain to a draw.",I gave too much weight to Spain's ranking and market-favorite status without enough adjustment for World Cup group-stage variance.,"no, because the no-bet decision was still prudent even though the probability forecast was too confident on Spain.",0.78,0,team_a_win,False,0.08,1.6224,2.525728644308256,0.88,1.09891196834817,14.29,25.0,0.8922,0.0686,0.0392,13,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m14,group,group,IR Iran,New Zealand,2,2,draw,regulation,,0.52,0.28,0.2,no_bet,0,"Iran look clearly stronger on baseline quality, with a much higher FIFA ranking and market odds making them the favorite, while New Zealand are likely to play a compact, low-risk match. However, Iran's disrupted preparation, political tension around the match, and reported absence of Sardar Azmoun reduce confidence enough that the available Iran price does not look like a strong edge.",partially_correct,True,neither,"I underweighted New Zealand's ability to turn a compact, low-risk game plan into enough attacking output to score twice.",I gave too much weight to Iran's baseline squad quality and ranking advantage relative to their preparation concerns.,"no, because the draw outcome supports the caution behind the original no-bet decision even though I would raise the draw probability in hindsight.",0.82,0,team_a_win,False,0.28,0.8288,1.272965675812887,0.52,1.8333333333333333,3.4,4.75,0.5194,0.2801,0.2005,14,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m15,group,group,Saudi Arabia,Uruguay,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.15,0.24,0.61,no_bet,0,"Uruguay are the stronger side on squad quality and betting markets, but their edge is tempered by reported injuries to Ronald Araujo, Jose Maria Gimenez, and Giorgian de Arrascaeta plus travel disruption shortly before kickoff. Saudi Arabia are still clear underdogs, though a compact defensive approach and Uruguay’s disrupted preparation make the draw more live than the market favorite price suggests.",partially_correct,True,neither,I underweighted Saudi Arabia's ability to keep the match compact enough to turn Uruguay's superiority into only a low-margin chance profile.,I overweighted Uruguay's squad-quality edge despite already noting injuries and travel disruption.,"no, with one-sentence explanation: The no-bet decision was appropriate because the draw risk I identified was real even though my central probability still leaned too strongly toward Uruguay.",0.82,2,team_b_win,False,0.24,0.9722,1.4271163556401458,0.61,8.33,3.8,1.4716981132075473,0.113,0.2476,0.6394,15,2,team_b_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m16,group,group,Belgium,Egypt,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.39,0.28,0.33,team_a_win,20,"Belgium have the stronger overall profile, ranking 9th to Egypt’s 29th and entering with strong recent form, including an unbeaten qualifying campaign and a 13-match unbeaten run. However, Opta’s model makes this very close, Egypt have Salah and Marmoush as transition threats, and Egypt have won three of the past four head-to-head friendlies, so this is only a small-stake Belgium lean rather than a confident bet.",partially_correct,True,neither,I underweighted how evenly matched the game could be despite Belgium's stronger overall profile.,I gave somewhat too much weight to Belgium's ranking and qualifying form when making the betting pick.,"yes, I would choose no_bet because my own probabilities showed only a small edge and the draw risk was substantial.",0.82,0,team_a_win,False,0.28,0.7794,1.272965675812887,0.39,1.6451612903225803,3.85,5.25,0.5745,0.2455,0.18,16,0,team_a_win,20.0,-20.0,True,False,False,-0.1845
chatgpt,m17,group,group,Austria,Jordan,3,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.7000000000000001,0.19,0.11,no_bet,0,"Austria are the stronger side on ranking, squad quality, and market pricing, with odds around -290 to -321 implying they are clear favorites over World Cup debutants Jordan. I do not see enough edge to bet Austria at that short price, especially with Christoph Baumgartner ruled out and Jordan having enough attacking quality through Musa Al-Taamari to keep some upset/draw risk alive.",correct,True,neither,"Austria's attacking edge was probably stronger than I allowed for, even with Baumgartner unavailable.",I slightly overweighted Jordan's upset or draw risk from Al-Taamari and debut-team unpredictability.,"yes, I would be somewhat more willing to stake a small amount on Austria, because the 3-1 result suggests my no-bet stance may have been too cautious relative to the strength gap.",0.78,0,team_a_win,True,0.7000000000000001,0.1381999999999999,0.3566749439387323,0.7000000000000001,1.3846153846153846,4.7,8.0,0.6813,0.2007,0.1179,17,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m18,group,group,France,Senegal,3,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.64,0.22,0.14,no_bet,0,"France are the stronger side and market favorite, with current 90-minute prices around France -215 to -220, draw +340 to +370, and Senegal +600 to +650. France’s attacking depth gives them the highest win probability, but Senegal are reported fit, experienced, and dangerous enough that the available France price looks too short relative to my 64% estimate.",correct,True,neither,I underweighted France's ability to convert their attacking superiority into a multi-goal margin rather than just a narrow win.,I gave somewhat too much weight to Senegal's ability to keep the match close enough to make the France price unattractive.,"yes, I would be more willing to place a modest bet on France win because the 3-1 result suggests my no-bet stance may have been too cautious.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.64,0.1976,0.4462871026284195,0.64,1.4545454545454546,4.5,7.0,0.6532,0.2111,0.1357,18,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m19,group,group,Iraq,Norway,1,4,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.08,0.15,0.77,draw,15,"Norway are clear favorites: Haaland and Odegaard are reported fit, Norway dominated qualifying with 37 goals and only five conceded, and market odds price them around an 80% implied favorite. Iraq look organized under Graham Arnold and may be capable of keeping the game tighter than the raw talent gap suggests, so the draw is the only side I would consider as a small value punt rather than laying a heavy Norway price.",partially_correct,True,neither,I underweighted how strongly Norway's attacking quality would convert the talent gap into a multi-goal win rather than just a narrow favorite result.,I gave too much weight to Iraq's organization and the possibility that they could keep the match tight enough for a draw to have betting value.,"yes, I would either take Norway despite the short price or make no bet, because the draw hedge was too cute relative to Norway's clear superiority.",0.86,2,team_b_win,True,0.77,0.0817999999999999,0.2613647641344075,0.77,13.0,7.0,1.2,0.073,0.1357,0.7913,19,2,team_b_win,15.0,-15.0,True,False,True,0.0143
chatgpt,m20,group,group,Argentina,Algeria,3,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.6900000000000001,0.21,0.1,no_bet,0,"Argentina are the stronger side as reigning champions and current top-ranked team, with Messi expected to start and Emiliano Martinez available, though Tagliafico is doubtful. Algeria are not a free square: they enter unbeaten in four, have recent strong results, and their counterattacking profile makes the draw/upset risk meaningful. Available moneyline prices roughly imply Argentina around 69–70% after removing vig, close to my estimate, so I do not see enough edge for a virtual bet.",correct,True,neither,I slightly underweighted Argentina's ability to turn their quality gap into a comfortable multi-goal win rather than a narrower result.,I gave too much weight to Algeria's recent unbeaten form and counterattacking threat as reasons for draw/upset risk.,"no, because the pre-match no-bet decision was based on lack of betting edge rather than doubt that Argentina were the most likely winner.",0.86,0,team_a_win,True,0.6900000000000001,0.1501999999999999,0.3710636813908319,0.6900000000000001,1.4081632653061225,4.76,9.09,0.6893,0.2039,0.1068,20,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m21,group,group,Portugal,Congo DR,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.7100000000000001,0.18,0.11,no_bet,0,"Portugal are a clear favorite: they are ranked near the top of FIFA’s men’s rankings, have a much deeper squad, and market odds list them as heavy favorites, while DR Congo are returning to the World Cup after a long absence. I still keep Portugal below the raw betting-market implied probability because Ruben Dias is reportedly out, DR Congo have pace and transition threat, and first group matches can be conservative. With no obvious value versus the available 1X2 market prices, I would pass rather than force a bet.",partially_correct,False,neither,"I underweighted DR Congo's ability to stay organized defensively and turn the match into a low-scoring, high-variance game.",I gave too much weight to Portugal's squad depth and market-favorite status translating into a win in a single group-stage match.,"no, because the no_bet decision was still appropriate even though the probability assigned to a Portugal win was too high.",0.78,0,team_a_win,False,0.18,1.1886,1.7147984280919266,0.7100000000000001,1.2702702702702702,5.6,12.0,0.7504,0.1702,0.0794,21,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m22,group,group,England,Croatia,4,2,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.57,0.25,0.18,no_bet,0,"England are the stronger side on current market and ranking signals, with England ranked 4th and Croatia 11th, plus England coming off a flawless qualifying run without conceding. Croatia remain dangerous because of their tournament pedigree, unbeaten qualifying, and experienced midfield, while England also have some fitness/selection uncertainty around Livramento and Saka. My England win probability is close to the market-implied price, so I do not see enough edge to stake part of the $100 budget.",correct,True,neither,I underweighted England's attacking upside and ability to turn superiority into a multi-goal result.,I gave too much weight to Croatia's tournament pedigree and draw resistance.,"yes, I would place a modest England win bet because my no-bet decision was too conservative relative to the gap shown in the result.",0.78,0,team_a_win,True,0.57,0.2798,0.5621189181535413,0.57,1.6993006993006992,3.65,5.3,0.5599,0.2606,0.1795,22,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m23,group,group,Ghana,Panama,1,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.38,0.3,0.32,team_b_win,15,"Market odds make Ghana a narrow favorite, but I downgrade them because Thomas Partey is unavailable for the Toronto match and Mohammed Kudus is also out, while Panama are ranked substantially higher and have improved under Thomas Christiansen. Ghana still have attacking upside through Antoine Semenyo and Jordan Ayew, so I keep them slightly more likely than Panama, but Panama's underdog price appears to offer the best virtual value.",partially_correct,True,neither,I underweighted Ghana's ability to still grind out a result despite missing key midfield/attacking players.,I gave too much weight to Panama's improved profile and underdog value relative to Ghana's higher win probability in my own forecast.,"yes, I would avoid betting against the team I still rated as the most likely winner unless the price edge was much clearer.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.38,0.5768000000000001,0.9675840262617056,0.38,2.35,3.1,3.2,0.4012,0.3041,0.2946,23,0,team_a_win,15.0,-15.0,True,False,True,0.0254
chatgpt,m24,group,group,Uzbekistan,Colombia,1,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.12,0.22,0.66,no_bet,0,"Colombia are clear favorites: current market odds cluster around roughly +750 to +900 for Uzbekistan, +350 to +400 for the draw, and about -250 to -270 for Colombia, while previews emphasize Colombia’s stronger squad, Luis Díaz/James Rodríguez, and recent momentum. Uzbekistan’s debut status, defensive organization under Cannavaro, and counterattacking threat keep upset/draw probability meaningful, but I do not see a strong enough edge versus available 1X2 prices to risk the virtual bankroll.",correct,True,neither,I underweighted the extent to which Colombia’s attacking quality could turn their advantage into a comfortable multi-goal win rather than a narrow favorite’s result.,I gave a bit too much weight to Uzbekistan’s defensive organization and debut-match resilience as reasons to avoid betting Colombia.,"No, because one correct favorite result does not prove there was pre-match betting value at the listed odds, even though the directional forecast was right.",0.86,2,team_b_win,True,0.66,0.1783999999999999,0.4155154439616658,0.66,8.5,4.5,1.4,0.1116,0.2108,0.6776,24,2,team_b_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m25,group,group,Mexico,Korea Republic,1,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.46,0.28,0.26,team_b_win,10,"Mexico deserve slight favoritism because of home-field advantage in Guadalajara, a 2-0 opening win, and a higher FIFA/Elo profile, but César Montes’ suspension weakens the defense against Korea’s transition threat. Market prices I found imply Mexico around 48%, draw around 28%, and Korea around 24%, so my forecast only creates a small value edge on Korea Republic at the available underdog price.",partially_correct,True,neither,I underweighted Mexico's ability to control the match defensively despite César Montes' suspension.,I overweighted Korea Republic's transition threat and the small perceived betting-value edge on the underdog.,"yes, I would avoid the small underdog bet because my own probability forecast already made Mexico the most likely winner and the edge was too thin.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.46,0.4376,0.7765287894989963,0.46,2.04,3.45,4.17,0.4807,0.2842,0.2351,25,0,team_a_win,10.0,-10.0,True,False,True,0.0249
chatgpt,m26,group,group,Canada,Qatar,6,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.7200000000000001,0.18,0.1,team_a_win,35,"Canada has the stronger squad, home advantage in Vancouver, and Alphonso Davies is reportedly available, while market odds also make Canada a clear favorite. Qatar’s 1-1 draw with Switzerland shows they are capable of staying competitive, so I leave meaningful draw risk and avoid staking the full budget.",correct,False,neither,I underweighted the possibility that Canada's home advantage and attacking quality would translate into a one-sided match rather than just a routine win.,I gave too much weight to Qatar's apparent competitiveness from the prior draw signal and kept too much draw/upset probability.,"yes, I would still bet Canada but with a larger stake because the pre-match edge was stronger than I priced.",0.84,0,team_a_win,True,0.7200000000000001,0.1207999999999999,0.3285040669720359,0.7200000000000001,1.2597402597402598,5.75,9.75,0.7417,0.1625,0.0958,26,0,team_a_win,35.0,9.090909090909092,True,True,False,-0.0216999999999999
chatgpt,m27,group,group,Switzerland,Bosnia and Herzegovina,4,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.54,0.27,0.19,draw,12,"Switzerland are the stronger side on baseline quality and market pricing, with FOX showing them as clear favorites, but their 1-1 opener against Qatar exposed finishing and game-management issues. Bosnia also drew 1-1 with Canada, are described by Reuters as compact and counterattacking, and remain unbeaten in recent internationals, so the upset/draw tail looks meaningful. I make Switzerland most likely to win, but the best virtual value is a small draw position rather than paying a heavy favorite price.",partially_correct,False,neither,I underweighted Switzerland's attacking ceiling and the chance that Bosnia's compact defensive approach could break down into a multi-goal loss.,"I gave too much weight to Bosnia's recent unbeaten/draw profile and the possibility of a low-scoring, counterattacking stalemate.","yes, I would avoid the draw bet and put a moderate stake on Switzerland to win because my own forecast already had them as the most likely outcome but I overreached for draw value.",0.86,0,team_a_win,True,0.54,0.3206,0.616186139423817,0.54,1.57,4.0,5.8,0.6013,0.236,0.1628,27,0,team_a_win,12.0,-12.0,True,False,True,0.034
chatgpt,m28,group,group,Czechia,South Africa,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.54,0.27,0.19,team_a_win,25,"Czechia have the stronger baseline profile, ranking around 40th versus South Africa around 60th, and the market also makes Czechia a clear favorite. South Africa lost 2-0 to Mexico in the opener and are missing suspended players Sphephelo Sithole and Themba Zwane, while Czechia’s set-piece and aerial strengths look like a plausible edge in a tight must-win match. I would bet Czechia, but only modestly because both teams lost their openers and the draw remains a meaningful outcome.",partially_correct,True,neither,I underweighted South Africa's ability to stay organized and turn the match into a low-margin draw despite being the underdog.,I gave too much weight to Czechia's ranking/market edge and assumed it would translate into a decisive advantage.,"yes, I would either lower the Czechia stake further or choose no_bet because the draw risk was substantial enough to weaken the value of the favorite pick.",0.82,0,team_a_win,False,0.27,0.8606,1.3093333199837622,0.54,1.8,3.7,4.5,0.5301,0.2579,0.212,28,0,team_a_win,25.0,-25.0,True,False,False,0.0099
chatgpt,m29,group,group,USA,Australia,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.56,0.24,0.2,no_bet,0,"USA are deserved favorites at home after beating Paraguay 4-1 and sitting ahead of Australia in the market, but Christian Pulisic’s calf-injury uncertainty meaningfully trims the edge. Australia’s 2-0 win over Türkiye showed a dangerous low-possession/counterattacking profile, so I make USA most likely but not enough value at roughly -170 moneyline pricing.",correct,True,neither,I underweighted how much USA's home-field environment and defensive control would suppress Australia's counterattacking threat.,I gave too much weight to the Pulisic injury uncertainty and Australia's upset/counterattacking path.,"no, because the USA win validated the directional forecast, but the pre-match price still did not obviously offer enough value for a $100 bet.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.56,0.2912,0.579818495252942,0.56,1.625,4.2,5.2,0.5884,0.2277,0.1839,29,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m30,group,group,Türkiye,Paraguay,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.49,0.27,0.24,team_a_win,25,"I make Türkiye a narrow favorite: they are the higher-ranked side, have stronger attacking creators, and the available market prices also lean slightly toward Türkiye. Both teams lost their openers, but Paraguay’s 4-1 defeat to the US, five bookings, and exposed transition defense make them a bit more fragile than Türkiye despite Türkiye’s own finishing concerns against Australia.",incorrect,True,unlucky,I underweighted Paraguay’s ability to keep the match low-scoring and convert a narrow-margin opportunity.,"I gave too much weight to Türkiye’s higher ranking, attacking creators, and market lean without enough discount for their finishing and game-control risks.","yes, I would either make this a no_bet or reduce the Türkiye stake because the matchup was closer and more fragile than my pre-match reasoning implied.",0.78,0,team_a_win,False,0.24,0.8906000000000001,1.4271163556401458,0.49,2.05,3.3,3.8,0.4628,0.2875,0.2497,30,0,team_a_win,25.0,-25.0,True,False,False,0.0272
chatgpt,m31,group,group,Brazil,Haiti,3,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.885,0.075,0.04,no_bet,0,"Brazil are a massive quality favorite: FIFA lists Brazil 6th and Haiti 83rd, and current market pricing is roughly Brazil 90%, draw 7%, Haiti 4%. I make Brazil slightly below the market because Neymar is out, Brazil opened with a shaky 1-1 draw against Morocco, and Haiti were competitive in a 1-0 loss to Scotland, so there is not enough edge to justify a bet at the available price.",correct,True,neither,I underweighted how cleanly Brazil's overall talent advantage would translate into control and a multi-goal margin.,I gave too much weight to Neymar's absence and Brazil's prior shaky draw as reasons to shade Brazil below the market.,"no, because the Brazil win call was right but my no-bet decision was based on lack of value versus the market, not doubt that Brazil were likely to win.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.885,0.02045,0.1221676339742075,0.885,1.125,9.5,20.0,0.8513,0.1008,0.0479,31,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m32,group,group,Scotland,Morocco,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.19,0.3,0.51,team_b_win,30,"Morocco rate stronger on current team quality and recent form: they are around the FIFA top-10 level, drew 1-1 with Brazil in the opener, and are widely described as favorites despite some injury losses. Scotland’s 1-0 win over Haiti gives them incentive to play conservatively for a draw, which raises draw probability, but Morocco’s technical edge and attacking threats make them the most likely winner.",correct,True,neither,"I slightly underweighted Morocco's ability to convert their technical edge into a win even in a tight, low-scoring match.",I gave a little too much weight to Scotland's incentive and ability to hold out for a draw.,"no, because the result supports Morocco as the right side while the narrow scoreline still justifies the moderate rather than aggressive stake.",0.82,2,team_b_win,True,0.51,0.3661999999999999,0.6733445532637656,0.51,5.0,3.6,1.7272727272727273,0.1893,0.2629,0.5479,32,2,team_b_win,30.0,21.81818181818182,True,True,False,-0.0379
chatgpt,m33,group,group,Tunisia,Japan,0,4,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.16,0.26,0.58,team_b_win,65,"Japan look clearly stronger: they drew 2-2 with the Netherlands in their opener and have much better recent form, while Tunisia lost 5-1 to Sweden and changed coaches immediately afterward. I am not going all-in because Tunisia may get a short-term bounce under Hervé Renard, Monterrey heat could reduce Japan's edge, and late team news includes some uncertainty around Japan attackers.",correct,True,neither,"Japan's attacking edge and Tunisia's defensive fragility were stronger than I priced in, especially after Tunisia's heavy opening loss.",I gave too much weight to a possible Tunisia short-term coaching bounce and match-conditions uncertainty.,"yes, I would still bet Japan but with a larger stake because the pre-match evidence of Japan superiority and Tunisia instability deserved more confidence.",0.78,2,team_b_win,True,0.58,0.2696,0.5447271754416722,0.58,6.5,4.0,1.5333333333333332,0.1457,0.2367,0.6176,33,2,team_b_win,65.0,34.66666666666666,True,True,False,-0.0376
chatgpt,m34,group,group,Ecuador,Curaçao,0,0,draw,regulation,,0.86,0.1,0.04,no_bet,0,"Ecuador are far stronger on baseline quality and ranking, arrive fully fit, and are under must-win pressure after a narrow 1-0 opening loss, while Curaçao are coming off a 7-1 defeat to Germany. My forecast still makes Ecuador a heavy favorite, but available straight-win odds around -1000 imply roughly 91% before margin, which is higher than my estimate, so I would pass rather than lay a bad price.",partially_correct,False,neither,I underweighted the possibility that Curaçao could keep the game compact enough to turn Ecuador's quality edge into a low-event draw.,I gave too much weight to Ecuador's baseline quality advantage and Curaçao's prior heavy loss to Germany.,"no, because the no-bet decision was still justified by the mismatch between my 86% Ecuador estimate and the very expensive market price.",0.78,0,team_a_win,False,0.1,1.5512,2.302585092994045,0.86,1.1,10.0,21.0,0.8603,0.0946,0.0451,34,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m35,group,group,Germany,Côte d'Ivoire,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.6,0.22,0.18,no_bet,0,"Germany are rightly favored after a 7-1 opener, a reported 10-match winning streak, and a higher FIFA ranking, but Côte d'Ivoire are not a weak underdog: they beat Ecuador 1-0, have strong transition threats, and recent reports note six clean sheets in their last ten matches. Market odds around Germany -180, draw +350, Côte d'Ivoire +450 roughly normalize near my probabilities, so I do not see enough edge to risk the virtual bankroll.",correct,True,neither,I slightly underweighted Germany's ability to turn their overall superiority into a narrow win despite Côte d'Ivoire's defensive strength.,I gave a bit too much weight to Côte d'Ivoire's clean-sheet record and underdog resilience as reasons to avoid leaning more strongly toward Germany.,"no, because Germany winning was my most likely outcome, but the narrow 2-1 score still supports the idea that the market may not have offered enough edge for a bet.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.6,0.2408,0.5108256237659907,0.6,1.5494505494505495,4.7,5.5,0.6206,0.2046,0.1748,35,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m36,group,group,Netherlands,Sweden,5,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.51,0.25,0.24,team_b_win,10,"Netherlands are the stronger side by ranking and squad depth, but they opened with a 2-2 draw against Japan and have some fitness concerns around key players, while Sweden arrive with momentum after a 5-1 win over Tunisia. Market odds I found price Netherlands as a clear favorite, but Sweden's Isak-Gyokeres attacking pair makes the upset probability slightly higher than the available Sweden win price implies, so I would take a small speculative value bet rather than a large stake.",partially_correct,False,neither,I underweighted the gap in overall team quality and the possibility that the Netherlands could dominate rather than merely edge the match.,I gave too much weight to Sweden's prior attacking momentum and striker pairing as a source of upset value.,"yes, I would either take Netherlands to win or avoid the bet rather than making a speculative Sweden upset play.",0.86,0,team_a_win,True,0.51,0.3601999999999999,0.6733445532637656,0.51,1.7272727272727273,3.8,4.75,0.55,0.25,0.2,36,0,team_a_win,10.0,-10.0,True,False,True,0.0399999999999999
chatgpt,m37,group,group,New Zealand,Egypt,1,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.18,0.28,0.54,draw,25,"Egypt are the stronger side on talent, especially with Salah and Marmoush, and market prices lean clearly toward Egypt. However, New Zealand looked better than expected in their 2-2 opener with Iran, Egypt only drew Belgium 1-1, and draw odds around +300 to +317 look slightly undervalued versus my 28% estimate.",partially_correct,True,neither,I underweighted Egypt's attacking quality and ability to turn a talent edge into a multi-goal win.,I gave too much weight to New Zealand's apparent resilience from the prior 2-2 result and the draw-value angle.,"yes, I would either bet Egypt to win or pass rather than taking the draw, because my own probability already had Egypt as the most likely outcome.",0.84,2,team_b_win,True,0.54,0.3223999999999999,0.616186139423817,0.54,5.5,4.0,1.6,0.172,0.2366,0.5914,37,2,team_b_win,25.0,-25.0,True,False,True,0.0434
chatgpt,m38,group,group,Uruguay,Cabo Verde,2,2,draw,regulation,,0.63,0.24,0.13,draw,8,"Uruguay are clearly stronger and the market has them as heavy favorites, but their 1-1 opener against Saudi Arabia plus injuries to Araújo, Giménez and de Arrascaeta reduce confidence in a clean favorite bet. Cabo Verde’s 0-0 draw with Spain suggests real defensive resilience, so I price the draw slightly above the market-implied probability and would take only a small value stab.",correct,True,neither,"I underweighted Cabo Verde's ability to create or convert enough chances to score multiple goals, rather than merely defend for a draw.",I still overweighted Uruguay's baseline team strength relative to their injury-related defensive vulnerability.,"no, because the small draw stake matched the uncertainty and the value angle I identified before the match.",0.82,0,team_a_win,False,0.24,0.9914,1.4271163556401458,0.63,1.4761904761904765,4.1,7.5,0.6423,0.2313,0.1264,38,0,team_a_win,8.0,24.8,True,True,True,0.0086999999999999
chatgpt,m39,group,group,Belgium,IR Iran,0,0,draw,regulation,,0.68,0.2,0.12,team_a_win,20,"Belgium are the stronger side on baseline quality and market price, with CBS listing Belgium at -230 versus Iran +650 and ESPN's June ranking placing Belgium 9th and Iran 21st. Iran's preparation has reportedly been disrupted by cross-border logistics and limited recovery time, while Belgium still carry some downside from an underwhelming opener, Doku's reported illness absence, and Lukaku minutes management. I see only a modest edge, so the virtual stake is conservative rather than all-in.",incorrect,False,neither,I underweighted Iran's ability to keep the match compact and suppress Belgium's attacking edge over 90 minutes.,I gave too much weight to Belgium's baseline squad quality and market-favorite status.,"yes, I would either reduce the Belgium stake further or take no bet because the draw risk was higher than I priced.",0.78,0,team_a_win,False,0.2,1.1168000000000002,1.6094379124341005,0.68,1.434782608695652,4.6,7.5,0.6652,0.2075,0.1273,39,0,team_a_win,20.0,-20.0,True,False,False,0.0148
chatgpt,m40,group,group,Spain,Saudi Arabia,4,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.7400000000000001,0.18,0.08,team_a_win,65,"Spain are the much stronger side by current ranking and squad quality, but their 0-0 opener against Cape Verde plus Saudi Arabia’s disciplined 1-1 draw with Uruguay make the draw risk meaningful. Saudi Arabia are likely to defend deep and counter, while Spain should still control possession and chance volume; fitness uncertainty around Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams keeps this below a lock.",correct,True,neither,I underweighted how large the quality gap would look once Spain converted possession control into high-quality chances.,I gave too much weight to the draw risk from Spain's prior 0-0 result and Saudi Arabia's disciplined prior draw.,"yes, with the result known I would stake more on team_a_win because the mismatch was clearer than I priced it.",0.86,0,team_a_win,True,0.7400000000000001,0.1063999999999999,0.3011050927839215,0.7400000000000001,1.0909090909090908,12.0,21.0,0.875,0.0795,0.0455,40,0,team_a_win,65.0,5.909090909090904,True,True,False,-0.1349999999999999
chatgpt,m41,group,group,Jordan,Algeria,1,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.19,0.24,0.57,team_b_win,60,"Algeria look materially stronger on baseline quality, with FIFA listing them 28th compared with Jordan at 63rd, and previews note Algeria’s greater experience and attacking depth. Both lost their openers, but Algeria’s 3-0 defeat came against Argentina while Jordan’s 3-1 loss to Austria exposed defensive and goalkeeping issues, so I make Algeria the clear but not overwhelming favorite.",correct,True,neither,Jordan were more competitive than the ranking gap suggested and still had enough attacking threat to keep the match close.,"Algeria's apparent quality edge and Jordan's defensive issues, which made the match look a bit more one-sided than it turned out to be.","no, because Algeria winning was still the right side, though I would treat it as a moderate-confidence edge rather than a dominant mismatch.",0.86,2,team_b_win,True,0.57,0.2786,0.5621189181535413,0.57,5.5,4.1,1.5714285714285714,0.1712,0.2296,0.5992,41,2,team_b_win,60.0,34.285714285714285,True,True,False,-0.0292
chatgpt,m42,group,group,Norway,Senegal,3,2,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.45,0.27,0.28,no_bet,0,"Norway enter in better immediate form after a 4-1 win over Iraq, a perfect qualifying run, and Haaland scoring twice, but Senegal are still the higher-ranked side and have enough transition threat through Mane and other attackers to keep this close. Market odds I found make Norway only a slight favorite, broadly matching my forecast, so I do not see enough edge to justify a virtual stake.",correct,True,neither,I underweighted how much Norway's attacking form could turn a close matchup into a multi-goal win rather than just a narrow edge.,I gave slightly too much weight to Senegal's ranking and transition threat as reasons to avoid backing Norway.,"no, because the result supports Norway as the most likely winner but does not by itself prove there was pre-match betting value.",0.76,0,team_a_win,True,0.45,0.4538000000000001,0.7985076962177716,0.45,2.27,3.7,3.22,0.4313,0.2646,0.3041,42,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m43,group,group,France,Iraq,3,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.87,0.09,0.04,no_bet,0,"France are a clear class above Iraq: they opened with a 3-1 win over Senegal, while Iraq lost 4-1 to Norway, and market prices around France -900 to -1200 already imply an overwhelming favorite. I still leave some draw/upset probability because France may rotate before Norway and Iraq are expected to play aggressively rather than sit deep, but France’s squad depth, Mbappe form, and injury situation make the win highly likely; the moneyline is too short to justify a virtual bet.",correct,True,neither,France's defensive control and ability to turn superiority into a clean-sheet multi-goal win may have been slightly underweighted.,I slightly overweighted the chance that Iraq's aggressive approach or France rotation could create draw/upset risk.,"no, because the forecast direction was right but the moneyline was still too short to justify a $100 virtual stake.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.87,0.0266,0.1392620673335076,0.87,1.0833333333333333,11.0,26.0,0.8771,0.0864,0.0365,43,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m44,group,group,Argentina,Austria,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.62,0.23,0.15,team_a_win,15,"Argentina are defending champions, ranked near the very top of FIFA’s June 2026 rankings, and opened Group J with a 3-0 win over Algeria, while Austria are dangerous but still a clear underdog despite beating Jordan 2-1. Market prices I found have Argentina around -157 with Austria around +445 and the draw around +275, so my Argentina estimate is only slightly above the implied market price; that supports a small, not aggressive, virtual bet on Argentina.",correct,True,neither,I underweighted Argentina's ability to control the match defensively and keep Austria from creating enough scoring threat.,I gave a little too much weight to Austria's upset/draw potential after their opening win.,"no, the Argentina pick was right and the modest stake matched the uncertainty I assigned before the match.",0.78,0,team_a_win,True,0.62,0.2198,0.4780358009429998,0.62,1.4166666666666667,4.5,7.5,0.665,0.2094,0.1256,44,0,team_a_win,15.0,6.250000000000001,True,True,False,-0.045
chatgpt,m45,group,group,Colombia,Congo DR,1,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.64,0.22,0.14,no_bet,0,"Colombia are the stronger side by ranking and recent performance, opened with a 3-1 win over Uzbekistan, and have no major injury concerns, while DR Congo impressed with a 1-1 draw against Portugal and pose counterattacking risk. Market odds I found were close to these probabilities, with Colombia priced too short to offer clear value, so I would preserve the $100 budget rather than force a bet.",correct,True,neither,"I underweighted the possibility that Colombia's edge would show up as a narrow, low-scoring win rather than a more comfortable result.","I slightly overweighted Colombia's attacking advantage, since the final score suggests Congo DR kept the match more competitive than a 64% favorite might sometimes imply.","no, because the Colombia-win call was directionally right but the narrow 1-0 result still supports the original view that there was not enough clear value to force a bet.",0.84,0,team_a_win,True,0.64,0.1976,0.4462871026284195,0.64,1.5128205128205128,4.2,7.0,0.6344,0.2285,0.1371,45,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m46,group,group,Panama,Croatia,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.14,0.22,0.64,no_bet,0,"Croatia are the stronger side by market pricing and team quality, with Croatia around 11th and Panama around 33rd in recent FIFA ranking references, and betting markets broadly pricing Croatia near the mid-60% range. Panama’s chances are hurt by Adalberto Carrasquilla missing the match, while both teams lost their opener, so motivation is high but the available prices do not show clear positive expected value versus my forecast. I would pass rather than force a bet from the $100 virtual budget.",correct,True,neither,Panama's ability to keep the match close and make Croatia win by only a narrow margin,Croatia's attacking separation over Panama,"no, because the Croatia win was consistent with my forecast but the narrow 1-0 score still does not prove there was clear betting value at the available price.",0.78,2,team_b_win,True,0.64,0.1976,0.4462871026284195,0.64,7.0,4.0,1.5,0.1348,0.236,0.6292,46,2,team_b_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m47,group,group,England,Ghana,0,0,draw,regulation,,0.7200000000000001,0.18,0.1,team_a_win,35,"England rate as clear favorites on squad quality and form after a 4-2 opening win over Croatia, and Reuters reports Tuchel has no injury concerns, with Saka back in full training. Ghana also won their opener 1-0 against Panama and have counterattacking danger, while England showed defensive issues, so I would not stake the full budget at a likely short price.",incorrect,False,neither,I underweighted Ghana's ability to defend compactly and limit England's chance quality over 90 minutes.,"I overweighted England's squad quality, opening-match attacking output, and clean injury situation as predictors of a win.","yes, I would either make no bet or reduce the England stake because the draw risk was materially higher than my 0.18 estimate.",0.78,0,team_a_win,False,0.18,1.2008,1.7147984280919266,0.7200000000000001,1.2222222222222223,6.5,15.0,0.7877,0.1481,0.0642,47,0,team_a_win,35.0,-35.0,True,False,False,-0.0676999999999998
chatgpt,m48,group,group,Portugal,Uzbekistan,5,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.76,0.17,0.07,no_bet,0,"Portugal are a much stronger side on baseline quality, with recent reports listing them around FIFA No. 5 versus Uzbekistan around No. 50, and Portugal should be close to full strength with Ruben Dias available. Uzbekistan showed threat in their 3-1 loss to Colombia, while Portugal's 1-1 draw with Congo DR and a likely short price make the favorite hard to bet at market value. My fair price is Portugal as a clear favorite but not enough above the market-implied probability to justify a $100-budget bet.",correct,False,neither,I underweighted Portugal's attacking upside and the possibility that the quality gap would translate into a one-sided scoreline rather than just a controlled win.,I gave too much weight to Uzbekistan's threat shown in the Colombia match and Portugal's prior 1-1 draw with Congo DR.,"yes, I would have been more willing to place a moderate Portugal win bet because my prior no-bet was too cautious given the actual mismatch.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.76,0.0914,0.2744368457017603,0.76,1.2,7.0,12.0,0.7865,0.1348,0.0787,48,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m49,group,group,South Africa,Korea Republic,1,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.16,0.27,0.57,no_bet,0,"Korea Republic rate as the stronger side, with better attacking/defensive talent and no reported injury-table issues, while South Africa must chase the game and are missing Teboho Mokoena and Themba Zwane through suspension. The draw remains meaningful because Korea Republic can advance with a point and may manage risk in hot Monterrey conditions, but available Korea win odds around 4/6 look too short versus my 57% estimate.",incorrect,False,unlucky,"I underweighted South Africa's ability to turn a must-win situation into a disciplined, low-scoring upset rather than an open chase that would favor Korea Republic.",I gave too much weight to Korea Republic's overall squad strength and South Africa's suspensions.,"no, because the no-bet decision was still defensible given uncertainty and likely poor value, even though the directional forecast was wrong.",0.74,2,team_b_win,False,0.16,1.1033999999999995,1.8325814637483104,0.57,5.75,3.9,1.6,0.1648,0.243,0.5922,49,2,team_b_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m50,group,group,Czechia,Mexico,0,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.24,0.25,0.51,no_bet,0,"Mexico are already through with two wins and no goals conceded, have a major home/altitude advantage at Azteca, and are ranked far above Czechia, but possible rotation reduces the edge. Czechia must chase the game to survive and Mexico are only around a narrow market favorite, so my Mexico probability is not high enough above available odds to justify a bet.",partially_correct,False,neither,I underweighted how strongly Mexico's home/altitude advantage and overall quality edge would translate into control of the match.,I overweighted the risk that Mexico might rotate or lack urgency after already being in a strong group position.,"yes, I would have made Mexico win a modest bet because my no-bet was too cautious relative to the actual strength gap.",0.82,2,team_b_win,True,0.51,0.3601999999999999,0.6733445532637656,0.51,3.6,4.0,1.9090909090909087,0.2642,0.2377,0.4981,50,2,team_b_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m51,group,group,Morocco,Haiti,4,2,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.83,0.12,0.05,team_a_win,20,"Morocco are far stronger on baseline quality, with FIFA listing them 7th while Haiti are 83rd, and Morocco also have live incentive to win after drawing Brazil and beating Scotland. Haiti are already eliminated after losses to Scotland and Brazil, though their farewell motivation and Morocco's limited scoring so far keep the draw probability non-trivial. Market prices I found make Morocco a heavy favorite, so I would only make a modest virtual stake rather than use the full budget.",correct,True,neither,I underweighted Haiti's attacking threat and the chance that Morocco would concede even while controlling the match.,I slightly overweighted the idea that Haiti being eliminated would reduce their competitiveness.,"yes, I would still bet Morocco to win but raise the stake modestly because the win probability was justified while the final score showed more volatility than expected.",0.86,0,team_a_win,True,0.83,0.0458,0.1863295781914934,0.83,1.1666666666666667,7.5,15.0,0.8108,0.1261,0.0631,51,0,team_a_win,20.0,3.333333333333335,True,True,False,0.0191999999999999
chatgpt,m52,group,group,Scotland,Brazil,0,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.1,0.2,0.7,no_bet,0,"Brazil are clear favorites based on squad quality, current Group C position, and market odds around -250 to -275, while Scotland likely need to be more proactive to preserve qualification hopes. However, Brazil only need a controlled result, Raphinha is out, Neymar may only be available from the bench, and the available price does not offer enough edge versus my estimated win probability.",partially_correct,True,neither,I underweighted the chance that Brazil's quality gap would translate into a comfortable multi-goal win rather than just a controlled narrow result.,"I gave too much weight to Brazil's possible caution, Raphinha's absence, and Neymar uncertainty when judging whether the favorite side still had enough edge.","yes, I would have made a modest Brazil win bet because the result suggests I was too conservative about the favorite's ability to convert superiority into a win.",0.78,2,team_b_win,True,0.7,0.14,0.3566749439387324,0.7,8.0,5.0,1.3636363636363638,0.1181,0.189,0.6929,52,2,team_b_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m53,group,group,Bosnia and Herzegovina,Qatar,3,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.66,0.21,0.13,team_a_win,45,"Bosnia and Herzegovina enter as the market favorite and should benefit from Qatar coming off a 6-0 loss to Canada with Homam Ahmed and Assim Madibo red-carded, likely weakening Qatar’s lineup. Qatar are slightly higher in FIFA ranking, but the match context favors Bosnia: both teams need a win, Bosnia are expected to attack, and available odds price Bosnia as a clear favorite.",correct,True,neither,"I underweighted how large Bosnia and Herzegovina's attacking and matchup advantage would be, given the final 3-1 margin.","Qatar's slightly higher FIFA ranking, which did not translate into enough on-field resistance.","no, because the original team_a_win bet was directionally right and the 45 dollar stake was reasonable for a 0.66 probability forecast.",0.86,0,team_a_win,True,0.66,0.1765999999999999,0.4155154439616658,0.66,1.4444444444444444,5.0,6.25,0.6579,0.1901,0.152,53,0,team_a_win,45.0,20.0,True,True,False,0.0020999999999999
chatgpt,m54,group,group,Switzerland,Canada,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.42,0.3,0.28,draw,18,"Switzerland rate higher on FIFA/Elo strength and have the more reliable tournament profile, but Canada have home advantage in Vancouver and only need a draw to win Group B. Market odds make Switzerland the favorite, yet the match incentives and Canada’s home setting push my draw probability slightly above the market-implied range, so I would make only a small virtual bet on the draw.",partially_correct,True,neither,Switzerland's ability to convert their underlying team-strength edge despite Canada's home advantage.,Canada's home advantage and group-stage incentive to secure a draw.,"yes, I would avoid the draw bet and either make a small Switzerland bet or no bet because Switzerland was already my highest-probability outcome.",0.84,0,team_a_win,True,0.42,0.5048000000000001,0.8675005677047231,0.42,2.3,3.2,3.3,0.414,0.2975,0.2885,54,0,team_a_win,18.0,-18.0,True,False,True,0.0025
chatgpt,m55,group,group,Curaçao,Côte d'Ivoire,0,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.07,0.13,0.8,team_b_win,60,"Côte d'Ivoire are much stronger on squad quality and current tournament performance: they beat Ecuador 1-0 and narrowly lost 2-1 to Germany, while Curaçao’s point against Ecuador relied on an extreme 15-save goalkeeping performance after a 7-1 loss to Germany. Markets and previews also price Côte d'Ivoire as heavy favorites, but I leave some upset/draw probability because Curaçao have shown defensive resilience and counterattacking threat.",correct,True,neither,none,Curaçao's defensive resilience and upset potential,"no, because the 0-2 result fits the pre-match view that Côte d'Ivoire had a clear quality edge while Curaçao still deserved some nonzero draw/upset probability.",0.86,2,team_b_win,True,0.8,0.0617999999999999,0.2231435513142097,0.8,18.0,8.0,1.1428571428571428,0.0526,0.1184,0.8289,55,2,team_b_win,60.0,8.571428571428568,True,True,False,-0.0288999999999999
chatgpt,m56,group,group,Ecuador,Germany,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.22,0.24,0.54,team_b_win,25,"Germany are already qualified but recent reporting suggests Nagelsmann wants to maintain intensity, and market prices still make Germany a clear favorite. Ecuador have urgency and talent, but they have only 1 point from two matches and have not scored yet, so I rate Germany as the likeliest winner despite some rotation and Schlotterbeck's injury.",incorrect,False,neither,I underweighted Ecuador's urgency and ability to turn a must-result situation into a high-intensity performance.,I gave too much weight to Germany's overall strength and prior winning momentum despite their qualification status and possible rotation/motivation risk.,"yes, I would either reduce the Germany stake sharply or choose no_bet because Ecuador's incentive edge made the favorite less attractive than I priced it.",0.78,2,team_b_win,False,0.22,0.9576,1.5141277326297755,0.54,3.5,4.0,1.95,0.2725,0.2384,0.4891,56,2,team_b_win,25.0,-25.0,True,False,False,0.0509
chatgpt,m57,group,group,Japan,Sweden,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.49,0.26,0.25,team_a_win,35,"Japan look the better side on current evidence: they are unbeaten in Group F after a 2-2 draw with the Netherlands and a 4-0 win over Tunisia, and they entered the tournament ranked 18th versus Sweden at 38th. Sweden have dangerous forwards in Isak and Gyokeres, but their 5-1 loss to the Netherlands and reported defensive concerns make Japan the slightly stronger pick despite Japan's notable injury absences.",incorrect,True,neither,"I underweighted Sweden's ability to stabilize defensively and turn the match into a balanced, low-margin game.",I overweighted Japan's stronger group form and Sweden's previous defensive problems.,"yes, I would either take no_bet or reduce the stake because my own probabilities already showed the draw risk was substantial.",0.76,0,team_a_win,False,0.26,0.8502,1.3470736479666092,0.49,2.0,3.3,3.9,0.4719,0.286,0.242,57,0,team_a_win,35.0,-35.0,True,False,False,0.0181
chatgpt,m58,group,group,Tunisia,Netherlands,1,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.05,0.11,0.84,team_b_win,70,"Netherlands are strongly favored: they are unbeaten in Group F, still pushing for first place, and recently beat Sweden 5-1, while Tunisia are already eliminated after losing 5-1 to Sweden and 4-0 to Japan. The Dutch also have a large underlying strength edge in Elo/rankings and market pricing, though I leave some draw upset risk because Netherlands may manage minutes before the knockout stage.",correct,True,neither,I slightly underweighted Tunisia's ability to stay competitive enough to score rather than being completely overrun.,I overweighted the chance that Netherlands' recent attacking dominance would translate into a more one-sided or low-risk win.,"no, because the core read that Netherlands were clearly stronger and deserved a sizable win-probability edge was supported by the 3-1 result.",0.86,2,team_b_win,True,0.84,0.0402,0.1743533871447778,0.84,25.0,11.11,1.1364256480218282,0.0396,0.0891,0.8713,58,2,team_b_win,70.0,9.549795361527975,True,True,False,-0.0312999999999999
chatgpt,m59,group,group,Türkiye,USA,3,2,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.3,0.28,0.42,team_b_win,20,"USA have already won Group D and are in strong form after wins over Paraguay and Australia, while Türkiye are eliminated after two losses, but USA rotation risk is meaningful because Pochettino said he will not start several booked regulars. Pulisic appears close to available but may not play 90 minutes, so I make USA only a modest favorite rather than a heavy one. At near-even or plus-money prices, USA win is a small positive-value virtual bet, but the dead-rubber context keeps the stake conservative.",incorrect,True,neither,I underweighted how much USA rotation and dead-rubber dynamics could disrupt defensive organization and make Türkiye more live despite being eliminated.,I overweighted USA's prior group-stage form and home-field edge as predictors once lineup rotation became likely.,"yes, I would make it a no_bet or much smaller USA stake because the rotation risk should have outweighed the apparent form advantage.",0.78,2,team_b_win,False,0.3,0.7447999999999999,1.203972804325936,0.42,3.9,4.2,1.8,0.2442,0.2267,0.5291,59,2,team_b_win,20.0,-20.0,True,False,False,-0.1091
chatgpt,m60,group,group,Paraguay,Australia,0,0,draw,regulation,,0.32,0.36,0.32,team_b_win,20,"Market prices and previews point to a very tight match, with Paraguay only a narrow favorite and the draw heavily respected. I slightly like Australia at underdog pricing because they rank higher, can defend compactly and counter through Irankunda, while Paraguay miss suspended playmaker Miguel Almiron; Australia’s Leckie/Italiano absences keep the edge small.",partially_correct,True,neither,I underweighted the likelihood that both teams' compact defensive approaches would suppress clear chances enough to make 0-0 plausible.,I gave too much weight to Australia's underdog win value despite rating the draw as the single most likely outcome.,"yes, I would either bet the draw or make no bet because my own probabilities already made draw the most likely result.",0.78,1,draw,True,0.36,0.6144000000000001,1.0216512475319814,0.36,2.875,2.15,3.9,0.3253,0.435,0.2398,60,1,draw,20.0,-20.0,True,False,True,0.0802
chatgpt,m61,group,group,New Zealand,Belgium,1,5,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.09,0.18,0.73,no_bet,0,"Belgium are the clearly stronger side and market favorite, with Oddschecker showing roughly Belgium -330, draw +475, and New Zealand +1000, but that price implies a Belgium win probability around the mid-70s before hold. I rate Belgium slightly lower because they have drawn both group matches so far and key attackers Doku and Lukaku are not fit for a full 90 minutes, while New Zealand still have enough set-piece/Chris Wood upset equity to keep draw and long-shot win risk alive.",correct,True,neither,Belgium's attacking ceiling and ability to turn the quality gap into a multi-goal win,Belgium's prior draws and fitness concerns around key attackers,"no, because the no-bet decision was based on limited value at the price, and one correct favorite result does not prove the pre-match odds offered a good edge.",0.86,2,team_b_win,True,0.73,0.1134,0.3147107448397002,0.73,14.0,8.0,1.1798561151079137,0.0684,0.1197,0.8118,61,2,team_b_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m62,group,group,Egypt,IR Iran,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.43,0.31,0.26,team_a_win,20,"Egypt are slight favorites: they lead Group G, recently beat New Zealand 3-1, and have Salah/Marmoush available, while Iran have shown defensive resilience with draws against Belgium and New Zealand but have faced travel/logistical disruptions. Market odds also make Egypt a modest favorite, though the draw remains a substantial risk because Egypt may only need a result and Iran have been low-scoring.",partially_correct,True,neither,I underweighted how strongly Iran's defensive resilience and Egypt's incentive to avoid losing could push the match toward a low-scoring draw.,I gave slightly too much weight to Egypt's recent attacking form and roster edge as reasons to convert their advantage into a win.,"yes, I would either bet a smaller amount on Egypt or choose no_bet because the draw risk I identified was high enough to weaken the edge.",0.82,0,team_a_win,False,0.31,0.7285999999999999,1.171182981502945,0.43,2.45,2.75,3.3,0.3797,0.3383,0.2819,62,0,team_a_win,20.0,-20.0,True,False,False,0.0503
chatgpt,m63,group,group,Cabo Verde,Saudi Arabia,0,0,draw,regulation,,0.38,0.29,0.33,team_a_win,20,"Cabo Verde have been the more impressive tournament side, drawing Spain 0-0 and Uruguay 2-2, while Saudi Arabia drew Uruguay but then lost 4-0 to Spain and are adjusting under Georgios Donis after a late coaching change. Saudi Arabia have a slight FIFA-ranking edge and more World Cup experience, so I do not make Cabo Verde a heavy favorite, but their defensive resilience and current momentum give them a small edge. The market appears close to even, so the edge is modest and the stake is conservative.",partially_correct,True,neither,I underweighted the chance that both teams would play cautiously and that the match would settle into a low-scoring draw.,I overweighted Cabo Verde's tournament momentum and defensive resilience as enough to create a small win edge rather than just avoid defeat.,"yes, I would choose no_bet because my edge on Cabo Verde was too thin relative to the draw risk.",0.82,0,team_a_win,False,0.29,0.7574,1.2378743560016174,0.38,2.45,3.5,2.75,0.386,0.2702,0.3439,63,0,team_a_win,20.0,-20.0,True,False,False,-0.006
chatgpt,m64,group,group,Uruguay,Spain,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.14,0.23,0.63,team_b_win,55,"Spain are the stronger side and current markets/previews price them as clear favorites, with Spain around -209 and Kalshi-style win probabilities near two-thirds. Uruguay need the result more after two group-stage draws, but that may force them to open up against Spain, and the reported absences of Ronald Araujo and Giorgian De Arrascaeta reduce their upset chances. I still keep a meaningful draw probability because Uruguay are competitive, physical, and this is a high-stakes final group match.",correct,True,neither,I slightly underweighted how tight and low-scoring the match could be despite Spain being the stronger side.,I overweighted the idea that Uruguay needing a result would make them open up enough to create a more decisive Spain win.,"no, because the Spain-win pick was correct and the 55 percent stake was appropriately cautious for a favorite facing a strong opponent.",0.86,2,team_b_win,True,0.63,0.2094,0.4620354595965587,0.63,7.0,4.1,1.5,0.1356,0.2315,0.6329,64,2,team_b_win,55.0,27.5,True,True,False,-0.0029
chatgpt,m65,group,group,Senegal,Iraq,5,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.68,0.2,0.12,team_a_win,45,"Senegal have the much stronger baseline profile, ranking far above Iraq in FIFA’s current ranking, and their two losses came competitively against France and Norway while Iraq were beaten more clearly by the same opponents. The main caution is that Senegal are under pressure, have defensive issues, and will be without first-choice goalkeeper Edouard Mendy, so I would back Senegal but not use the full $100 budget.",correct,False,neither,"I underweighted the size of Senegal's quality and physical advantage over Iraq, especially the likelihood that this could become a one-sided match rather than just a controlled Senegal win.","I gave too much weight to Senegal's goalkeeper absence and defensive concerns, which mattered far less than the attacking mismatch.","yes, I would still pick Senegal but stake more aggressively because the pre-match mismatch was larger than my 68% win probability implied.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.68,0.1567999999999999,0.3856624808119846,0.68,1.2222222222222223,6.5,12.0,0.7753,0.1458,0.079,65,0,team_a_win,45.0,10.000000000000004,True,True,False,-0.0952999999999999
chatgpt,m66,group,group,Norway,France,1,4,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.17,0.27,0.56,team_b_win,30,"France are the stronger and deeper side, and market prices have them as clear favorites, while Norway’s coach has indicated he may rest players because both teams have already advanced. The draw risk is meaningful because France only need a draw to top Group I and Didier Deschamps will miss the match, but France’s squad depth and attacking quality still make them the best side to back.",correct,False,neither,I underweighted how large France's quality and depth advantage would be even in a match where a draw was sufficient.,I gave too much weight to draw risk and possible reduced urgency from France.,"yes, I would still bet France but with a larger stake because the pre-match reasoning underestimated the gap between the teams.",0.82,2,team_b_win,True,0.56,0.2954,0.579818495252942,0.56,4.5,4.5,1.65,0.2115,0.2115,0.5769,66,2,team_b_win,30.0,19.5,True,True,False,-0.0168999999999999
chatgpt,m67,group,group,Algeria,Austria,3,3,draw,regulation,,0.27,0.4,0.33,draw,35,"Austria look slightly stronger on paper, with a higher FIFA ranking and a more settled Rangnick structure, but the match context pushes draw probability up because Austria would remain second with a draw and Algeria would likely still advance on four points. Market pricing also points to a very tight match with the draw as the single most likely outcome, while Algeria’s Jordan win and tactical shift keep their upset chance alive.",correct,True,neither,"I underweighted how open and high-variance the match could become, especially the chance of both teams trading goals rather than settling into a cautious draw.","I gave too much weight to group-stage incentives producing a controlled, lower-risk match.","no, because the draw thesis was correct, though I would describe it as a volatile draw risk rather than mainly a cautious qualification-driven result.",0.86,1,draw,True,0.4,0.5418000000000001,0.916290731874155,0.4,3.8,2.3,2.8,0.2494,0.4121,0.3385,67,1,draw,35.0,45.49999999999999,True,True,False,-0.0121
chatgpt,m68,group,group,Jordan,Argentina,1,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.05,0.13,0.82,team_b_win,60,"Argentina are the much stronger side, ranked No. 1 by FIFA in June 2026 while Jordan are around 63rd, and market/model sources price Argentina as a heavy favorite. I reduce Argentina slightly because reports say Messi will not start and Argentina have already secured advancement, but Jordan still look unlikely to produce enough attacking threat over 90 minutes.",correct,True,neither,Argentina's depth was enough to win comfortably even with Messi not starting.,The downside from Messi not starting and Argentina potentially rotating after securing advancement.,"no, the Argentina win bet was justified and the 3-1 result fits the pre-match view of Argentina as a heavy favorite.",0.82,2,team_b_win,True,0.82,0.0518,0.1984509387238383,0.82,16.67,9.09,1.1628664495114007,0.0582,0.1068,0.8349,68,2,team_b_win,60.0,9.771986970684043,True,True,False,-0.0149
chatgpt,m69,group,group,Colombia,Portugal,0,0,draw,regulation,,0.24,0.25,0.51,no_bet,0,"Portugal are the stronger side on current rating and market/model signals, with Opta giving Portugal about a 51.6% win chance and betting odds broadly aligned with that. Colombia are already on six points, need only a draw to top Group K, and should have a favorable Miami crowd, so the draw risk is high enough that I do not see a clear value bet.",partially_correct,True,neither,I underweighted how strongly Colombia's incentive to secure the draw and top the group could suppress the match tempo.,I overweighted Portugal's superior team strength as translating into a likely win rather than a low-scoring control game.,"no, because the draw risk I identified was real enough that the no-bet decision still looks justified.",0.78,2,team_b_win,False,0.25,0.8802,1.3862943611198906,0.51,4.220000000000001,3.8,1.869565217391304,0.229,0.2543,0.5168,69,2,team_b_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m70,group,group,Congo DR,Uzbekistan,3,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.54,0.25,0.21,no_bet,0,"Congo DR look like the stronger side: they drew Portugal, only lost 1-0 to Colombia, and Reuters reports they need and plan to attack against an Uzbekistan side that has conceded heavily in the group. Market odds also make Congo DR clear favorites, but around -135 the price is close to my estimated fair probability, so I do not see enough edge to justify a virtual bet.",correct,True,neither,I underweighted how strongly Congo DR's attacking approach would translate into multiple goals against Uzbekistan's defense.,"I gave too much weight to the lack of betting edge relative to market odds, which made me choose no_bet despite a clear favorite lean.","yes, with the same pre-match information interpreted more aggressively, I would place a modest bet on Congo DR rather than no_bet.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.54,0.3181999999999999,0.616186139423817,0.54,1.7407407407407407,4.2,4.3,0.5497,0.2278,0.2225,70,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m71,group,group,Croatia,Ghana,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.47,0.32,0.21,draw,10,"Croatia are the stronger side on baseline quality and ranking, but their tournament form has been uneven: a 4-2 loss to England followed by a narrow 1-0 win over Panama, with Dalic admitting possession and passing issues. Ghana have four points, consecutive clean sheets, and a draw likely suits them, which raises the draw probability in a low-scoring tactical matchup; market prices I found had Croatia favored around the mid-50% range, so I see little value on Croatia and only a small virtual edge on the draw.",partially_correct,True,neither,I underweighted Croatia's ability to turn their baseline quality advantage into enough attacking output to win despite Ghana's defensive form.,I overweighted Ghana's recent clean sheets and the idea that Ghana's incentive structure would make the draw especially likely.,"yes, I would avoid the draw bet and either make a small Croatia win bet or no bet because my own probabilities already had Croatia as the most likely outcome.",0.78,0,team_a_win,True,0.47,0.4274,0.7550225842780328,0.47,1.7518796992481205,3.18,5.2,0.5297,0.2918,0.1785,71,0,team_a_win,10.0,-10.0,True,False,True,0.0282
chatgpt,m72,group,group,Panama,England,0,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.06,0.14,0.8,no_bet,0,"England are much stronger on squad quality and ranking, already beat Croatia 4-2, and market odds make them a heavy favorite, while Panama have lost 1-0 to both Ghana and Croatia and are already eliminated. Panama’s compact 5-4-1 and England’s right-back/Rice fitness issues slightly raise draw risk, but not enough to make Panama realistic. England at around 1-6 implies too high a break-even probability, so I would not bet at the available price.",correct,True,neither,I slightly underweighted how cleanly England could control the match and limit Panama's attacking threat.,I gave a little too much weight to England's fitness/rotation concerns and Panama's compact defensive setup as draw-risk factors.,"No, because the England win call was right but the no-bet decision was based on price/value rather than simply predicting the winner.",0.86,2,team_b_win,True,0.8,0.0631999999999999,0.2231435513142097,0.8,13.0,8.0,1.1666666666666667,0.0726,0.118,0.8093,72,2,team_b_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m73,knockout,round_of_32,South Africa,Canada,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.17,0.26,0.57,no_bet,0,"Canada are the stronger side on talent and market pricing, with Davies and Bombito returning, but Koné is out and Eustáquio’s fitness keeps the edge from being overwhelming. South Africa’s defensive form and Mokoena’s return make a low-scoring 90-minute draw plausible, and the current Canada price looks close to fair rather than clearly mispriced.",correct,True,neither,I underweighted Canada’s ability to turn a narrow talent edge into a controlled low-scoring win.,I gave slightly too much weight to South Africa’s draw resistance and defensive form.,"yes, I would make a small Canada-win bet because the final result suggests the pre-match Canada edge may have been a bit more actionable than I treated it.",0.74,2,team_b_win,True,0.57,0.2814,0.5621189181535413,0.57,5.0,3.55,1.77,0.1911,0.2691,0.5398,73,2,team_b_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m74,knockout,round_of_32,Germany,Paraguay,1,1,draw,penalties,team_b,0.7200000000000001,0.18,0.1,no_bet,0,"Germany are the clear stronger side: they won Group E, have far better group-stage attacking metrics, and market odds make them a heavy 90-minute favorite. Paraguay are organized and counter-oriented, but their low chance creation, negative group-stage goal difference, and Diego Gomez suspension make an upset less likely; however Germany’s moneyline price is short enough that I do not see a strong value bet.",incorrect,False,neither,I underweighted Paraguay's ability to keep the match low-scoring and force Germany into a knockout-style grind where a draw and penalties became realistic.,"I gave too much weight to Germany's overall team strength, group-stage profile, and market-favorite status.","no, because the no-bet decision was still sensible even though the probability forecast gave Germany too much edge.",0.78,0,team_a_win,False,0.18,1.2008,1.7147984280919266,0.7200000000000001,1.38,5.0,8.5,0.6952,0.1919,0.1129,74,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m75,knockout,round_of_32,Netherlands,Morocco,1,1,draw,penalties,team_b,0.44,0.29,0.27,no_bet,0,"Netherlands are a slight 90-minute favorite, supported by stronger market pricing and a high-scoring group stage, but Morocco also took seven points, drew Brazil, rotated players to manage workload, and has enough defensive structure and transition threat to keep the draw live. My probabilities are close to the available market, so I do not see a clear positive expected-value side with a $100 virtual budget.",partially_correct,True,neither,"I underweighted Morocco's ability to drag the match into a low-margin, knockout-style contest where penalties could decide it.",I overweighted the Netherlands' overall squad strength and market-favorite status as translating into a regulation-time win.,"no, because my no-bet decision was based on the probabilities being close to market and the actual draw/penalty outcome reinforces that the edge was unclear.",0.82,0,team_a_win,False,0.29,0.7706,1.2378743560016174,0.44,2.15,3.3,3.6,0.4447,0.2897,0.2656,75,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m76,knockout,round_of_32,Brazil,Japan,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.6,0.22,0.18,team_a_win,30,"Brazil are the stronger side on talent and entered the knockout round unbeaten, with Vinícius Júnior in form and Neymar reportedly available for increased minutes, while market odds around 1.70 also imply Brazil as a clear but not overwhelming favorite. Japan are credible underdogs after a solid group stage and have enough attacking quality to make this close, so I would take only a moderate virtual stake rather than a full-budget bet.",correct,True,neither,Japan's ability to keep the match close enough that Brazil's edge translated into only a narrow one-goal win,none,"no, because the Brazil win pick and moderate $30 stake matched a favorite with real but not overwhelming downside risk.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.6,0.2408,0.5108256237659907,0.6,1.74,3.8,4.9,0.5516,0.2526,0.1959,76,0,team_a_win,30.0,22.2,True,True,False,0.0484
chatgpt,m77,knockout,round_of_32,Mexico,Ecuador,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.44,0.32,0.24,no_bet,0,"Mexico have the stronger setup: home advantage at Azteca, a perfect group stage, six goals scored, and none conceded. Ecuador are still dangerous because they defended well in qualifying, allowed only two group-stage goals, and their profile points toward a tight low-scoring match, but current market prices are close to my estimate and do not offer enough edge.",correct,True,neither,I underweighted how strongly Mexico's home advantage and defensive form would translate into control over the match.,I gave too much weight to Ecuador's ability to keep the match tight and draw-oriented.,"no, because the Mexico win was my highest-probability outcome but I still did not identify enough pre-match value to justify a stake.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.44,0.4736,0.8209805520698302,0.44,2.25,2.8,4.0,0.4226,0.3396,0.2377,77,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m78,knockout,round_of_32,France,Sweden,3,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.73,0.17,0.1,no_bet,0,"France are clear favorites after taking nine points and scoring ten goals in the group stage, while Sweden were inconsistent and are missing key defender Isak Hien. Market prices I found put France around -330 to -400, but my regulation-time win probability is slightly below the break-even level for those odds, so I would pass rather than force a bet.",correct,True,neither,"I underweighted how decisive France's attacking edge could be over 90 minutes, especially the chance of a multi-goal win.",I gave slightly too much weight to Sweden's ability to keep the match competitive enough for a draw or narrow loss.,"yes, I would have been more willing to place a modest France win bet because the 3-0 result suggests my no-bet decision was too conservative.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.73,0.1118,0.3147107448397002,0.73,1.3,5.75,10.0,0.7374,0.1667,0.0959,78,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m79,knockout,round_of_32,Côte d'Ivoire,Norway,1,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.24,0.23,0.53,team_b_win,12,"Norway rate as the stronger side by current model signals: Opta has Norway winning 56.1% in 90 minutes, and Norway also have the clearest match-winner in Haaland with Ødegaard supplying him. Côte d'Ivoire's physical midfield and transition threat keep this close, and Ryerson's confirmed absence hurts Norway defensively, so I trim Norway slightly from the Opta number but still see small value at roughly even odds.",correct,True,neither,I slightly underweighted Norway's ability to convert their attacking edge into a win despite a physical opponent.,I gave a bit too much weight to Côte d'Ivoire's physical midfield and transition threat keeping the match closer to a draw.,"no, because the original bet was modest and matched the forecast: Norway were favored but not overwhelmingly so.",0.78,2,team_b_win,True,0.53,0.3314,0.6348782724359695,0.53,3.65,3.5,2.05,0.2616,0.2728,0.4657,79,2,team_b_win,12.0,12.599999999999998,True,True,False,0.0643
chatgpt,m80,knockout,round_of_32,USA,Bosnia and Herzegovina,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.6900000000000001,0.2,0.11,no_bet,0,"USA are clearly more likely to win in 90 minutes: recent market prices around -270 to -290 imply roughly a 69–70% fair win probability after removing vig, and previews point to home advantage, stronger attacking efficiency, and Bosnia entering as a third-place qualifier. However, at the available 3-way moneyline price, USA is not attractive enough for a value bet, while the draw and Bosnia upset are plausible but not mispriced enough to justify risking the $100 budget.",correct,True,neither,I may have underweighted how reliably USA's home advantage and attacking edge would translate into a controlled knockout win.,I may have overweighted the upset/draw risk enough to avoid a bet despite USA being the clear stronger side.,"No, because the forecast favored USA but the no-bet decision was based on price/value rather than doubting USA was the most likely winner.",0.83,0,team_a_win,True,0.6900000000000001,0.1481999999999999,0.3710636813908319,0.6900000000000001,1.44,4.6,7.5,0.6644,0.208,0.1276,80,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m81,knockout,round_of_32,Belgium,Senegal,3,2,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.47,0.28,0.25,team_a_win,12,"Belgium rate slightly stronger after winning Group G, staying in Seattle, and reportedly having a fully fit squad, while Senegal reached the knockout stage narrowly as a third-place team and will miss first-choice goalkeeper Edouard Mendy. Market odds make Belgium only a modest 90-minute favorite, so the edge is small rather than strong; Senegal's athleticism and knockout volatility keep the draw and upset probabilities meaningful.",correct,True,neither,"I underweighted the chance of a high-scoring, open match where both teams could create enough chances to make the favorite's win narrow rather than controlled.",I may have slightly overweighted Senegal's upset/draw resilience relative to Belgium's ability to convert their stronger squad position into a 90-minute win.,"no, because the original Belgium win pick with a small stake matched the modest edge and the close 3-2 result supports caution rather than a larger bet.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.47,0.4218,0.7550225842780328,0.47,2.15,3.2,3.7,0.4439,0.2982,0.2579,81,0,team_a_win,12.0,13.8,True,True,False,0.0260999999999999
chatgpt,m82,knockout,round_of_32,England,Congo DR,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.74,0.17,0.09,no_bet,0,"England are clear favorites on squad quality and market pricing, with recent books showing them around -300 to -370 in regulation, but the edge is partly offset by right-back injuries and DR Congo's compact defensive form. DR Congo appear capable of keeping the match lower-scoring and extending it, but an outright regulation upset still looks unlikely. My probabilities are close to the available market, so I would not force a virtual bet.",correct,True,neither,England's defensive vulnerability and DR Congo's ability to turn limited chances into a goal,England's squad-quality advantage translating into a more comfortable regulation win,"no, because the England win probability was high but my no-bet decision was based on limited edge versus the market rather than uncertainty about the favorite.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.74,0.1046,0.3011050927839216,0.74,1.27,5.75,13.0,0.7584,0.1675,0.0741,82,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m83,knockout,round_of_32,Switzerland,Algeria,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.52,0.27,0.21,team_a_win,15,"Switzerland look slightly stronger: they won Group B, have had a week of rest, and Reuters highlights in-form Johan Manzambi, Granit Xhaka, Manuel Akanji, and Gregor Kobel, while Algeria advanced as a third-place team after conceding seven group-stage goals. Algeria still have upset paths through Riyad Mahrez, counterattacks, and Vladimir Petkovic's familiarity with Switzerland, so I keep draw risk fairly high and make only a modest virtual stake on Switzerland in 90 minutes.",correct,True,neither,I underweighted Switzerland's ability to control the match defensively and limit Algeria's attacking chances.,"I gave slightly too much weight to Algeria's upset paths through Mahrez, counters, and Petkovic's familiarity with Switzerland.","yes, I would have made Switzerland a somewhat stronger pick and increased the virtual stake because the 2-0 result suggests their control advantage was larger than I priced.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.52,0.3474,0.6539264674066639,0.52,2.05,3.35,4.0,0.4707,0.288,0.2412,83,0,team_a_win,15.0,15.749999999999996,True,True,False,0.0493
chatgpt,m84,knockout,round_of_32,Portugal,Croatia,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.49,0.29,0.22,team_b_win,10,"Portugal are the stronger side on ranking, squad depth, and historical head-to-head, but their group stage was uneven with two draws, while Croatia recovered with consecutive wins and remain structurally hard to beat in knockout-style games. Market odds still make Portugal a clear 90-minute favorite, but Croatia at long odds appears to have slightly more value than Portugal given the midfield matchup, likely low-scoring profile, and weather/tempo concerns in Toronto.",partially_correct,True,neither,I underweighted Portugal's ability to convert their squad-depth and attacking quality into a narrow 90-minute win despite Croatia's resilience.,I gave too much weight to Croatia's value as an underdog and their knockout-game structure relative to Portugal's higher baseline quality.,"yes, I would either take Portugal with a modest stake or avoid the bet, because my probabilities favored Portugal but my value bet on Croatia was too aggressive.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.49,0.3926,0.7133498878774648,0.49,1.8,3.65,4.7,0.533,0.2629,0.2041,84,0,team_a_win,10.0,-10.0,True,False,True,0.0158999999999999
chatgpt,m85,knockout,round_of_32,Spain,Austria,3,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.68,0.2,0.12,no_bet,0,"Spain are the clearly stronger side and market favorite, supported by elite form including a reported 34-match unbeaten run, but their wide-player injury issues and Austria's pressing/scoring form make the upset or 90-minute draw risk non-trivial. Available prices appear to make Spain too short for a regular-time win bet, so I would pass rather than force a low-value favorite wager.",partially_correct,True,neither,I underweighted how completely Spain could control the match and turn their quality edge into a comfortable multi-goal win.,I gave too much weight to Austria's pressing and Spain's injury concerns as sources of draw or upset risk.,"yes, I would put a modest stake on team_a_win because the result suggests my no-bet decision was too conservative relative to Spain's edge.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.68,0.1567999999999999,0.3856624808119846,0.68,1.31,5.25,10.5,0.7277,0.1816,0.0908,85,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m86,knockout,round_of_32,Colombia,Ghana,1,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.64,0.23,0.13,no_bet,0,"Colombia project as the stronger 90-minute side: they topped Group K unbeaten, showed better chance creation and defensive solidity, while Ghana advanced as a third-place team with limited attacking output. However, market pricing already captures most of that edge, with Colombia around -175 to -190 and prediction-market probabilities near 65% Colombia, 24% draw, 13% Ghana. Because my forecast is close to the market, I would avoid forcing a bet.",correct,True,neither,I slightly underweighted how narrow and low-scoring the match would be despite Colombia being the stronger side.,none,"no, because the Colombia-win call was correct but the expected edge still looked too close to market pricing to justify a pre-match bet.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.64,0.1994,0.4462871026284195,0.64,1.54,4.0,7.0,0.6231,0.2399,0.1371,86,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m87,knockout,round_of_32,Argentina,Cabo Verde,3,2,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.83,0.12,0.05,no_bet,0,"Argentina are the clear favorite: they won all three group games with 8 goals scored and 1 conceded, Messi is expected to return to the starting lineup, and market prices are around Argentina -600 / draw +700 / Cabo Verde +1400. Cabo Verde still deserve upset respect because they reached the knockouts unbeaten with draws against Spain, Uruguay, and Saudi Arabia, conceded only twice, and are tactically compact on counters; my Argentina probability is slightly below the market, so I see no clear value bet.",correct,True,neither,I underweighted Cabo Verde's ability to create and finish enough chances to make the match genuinely close rather than mostly controlled by Argentina.,I gave too much weight to Argentina's defensive form and expected control from the group stage.,"no, because Argentina winning was still the most likely outcome but the narrow 3-2 score supports the earlier no-bet decision rather than a heavy favorite bet.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.83,0.0458,0.1863295781914934,0.83,1.15,8.5,20.0,0.8384,0.1134,0.0482,87,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m88,knockout,round_of_32,Australia,Egypt,1,1,draw,penalties,team_b,0.3,0.31,0.39,no_bet,0,"Egypt look slightly stronger over 90 minutes because of their attacking quality and broader scoring options, while market prices also make them a narrow favorite. However, Salah’s recent fitness uncertainty, Australia’s defensive resilience, and a high draw probability make the available moneyline prices look close to fair rather than clearly +EV.",partially_correct,True,neither,I underweighted the chance that Australia could keep the match level through regulation and extra time.,I gave slightly too much weight to Egypt's edge in attacking quality translating into a regulation-time win.,"no, because the match ending level and being decided by penalties supports the original no-bet decision more than a confident moneyline bet.",0.78,2,team_b_win,False,0.31,0.7182,1.171182981502945,0.39,3.3,2.9,2.5,0.2892,0.3291,0.3817,88,2,team_b_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m89,knockout,round_of_16,Paraguay,France,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.07,0.15,0.78,no_bet,0,"TEAM A appears to be Paraguay and TEAM B appears to be France for the Philadelphia Round of 16 match. France are clearly stronger and widely listed as heavy favorites, but market prices around Paraguay +1400 to +1700, draw +550 to +600, and France around -500 to -550 leave little obvious value on France, especially with extreme Philadelphia heat adding variance.",correct,True,neither,Paraguay's ability to keep the match low-scoring and competitive despite being clear underdogs,France's likelihood of converting superiority into a comfortable win rather than a narrow result,"no, because France winning was the most likely outcome but the pre-match price still did not offer enough value for a $100 virtual stake.",0.86,2,team_b_win,True,0.78,0.0757999999999999,0.2484613592984996,0.78,18.0,7.0,1.18,0.0531,0.1366,0.8103,89,2,team_b_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m90,knockout,round_of_16,Canada,Morocco,0,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.2,0.26,0.54,no_bet,0,"I interpret W73 vs W75 as Canada vs Morocco. Morocco are the stronger side on ranking, form, and tournament path: they are unbeaten, handled a tougher route including Brazil/Netherlands, and have no major reported injuries, while Canada are missing Ismael Kone and remain underdogs despite home-continent advantage. My probabilities are close to the published market/Opta estimates, so I see no clear value edge for a virtual 1X2 bet.",correct,True,neither,I underweighted how large Morocco's attacking and overall quality edge could look once the match opened up.,I overweighted Canada's home-continent advantage and the chance of a tighter draw-like game state.,"yes, I would put a modest stake on team_b_win because the original no_bet was too conservative given Morocco's edge.",0.84,2,team_b_win,True,0.54,0.3192,0.616186139423817,0.54,4.9,3.65,1.77,0.1957,0.2627,0.5417,90,2,team_b_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m91,knockout,round_of_16,Mexico,England,2,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.34,0.28,0.38,team_a_win,20,"England look slightly stronger on squad quality, but Mexico’s home advantage, altitude in Mexico City, and recent 2-0 win over Ecuador make this close. Some market previews price Mexico around 2/1 to win in 90 minutes, which is higher than my estimated fair price, so I would take a small value bet rather than a full-budget position.",partially_correct,True,neither,England's ability to create and finish enough chances despite Mexico's home and altitude advantage,Mexico's home advantage and the perceived betting value on Mexico,"yes, I would avoid the Mexico value bet because my own probability estimate already had England as the most likely winner.",0.78,2,team_b_win,True,0.38,0.5784,0.9675840262617056,0.38,3.45,3.2,2.25,0.2769,0.2985,0.4246,91,2,team_b_win,20.0,-20.0,True,False,True,0.0631
chatgpt,m92,knockout,round_of_16,Brazil,Norway,1,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.53,0.26,0.21,no_bet,0,"Brazil are rightly favored on squad depth and recent market pricing, but current odds already price them around the low-to-mid 50% range for a 90-minute win. Norway’s Haaland-led attack, strong tournament form, and Brazil’s Paquetá/Raphinha fitness issues keep the upset and draw probabilities meaningful, so I do not see enough edge to stake from the $100 budget.",partially_correct,True,neither,I underweighted Norway's ability to turn a meaningful attacking threat into an outright win rather than just a draw-or-upset possibility.,I overweighted Brazil's squad depth and market-favorite status as indicators of control in a knockout match.,"no, with hindsight Norway won, but ex ante my no-bet decision still matched the uncertainty and lack of clear edge.",0.78,0,team_a_win,False,0.21,0.9726,1.5606477482646683,0.53,1.91,3.6,4.1,0.5009,0.2658,0.2333,92,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m93,knockout,round_of_16,USA,Belgium,1,4,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.36,0.29,0.35,draw,20,"This is a 90-minute forecast: Belgium have the stronger long-run profile, FIFA ranking, unbeaten run, and recent 5-2 win over the USA, but the USA get home-field advantage in Seattle and a major boost from Folarin Balogun being available. Market prices I found are close to even, with some sources showing Belgium slightly ahead on the 3-way line and others favoring the USA to advance, so my edge is small. I would make only a modest virtual draw bet because both attacks look dangerous and multiple previews point toward a high-scoring, close match.",incorrect,False,neither,Belgium's attacking quality and ability to punish USA defensive gaps,USA home-field advantage and Balogun's availability,"yes, I would shift the bet away from the draw and toward Belgium because my prior treated the matchup as too even.",0.82,0,team_a_win,False,0.35,0.6361999999999999,1.0498221244986776,0.36,2.6,3.4,2.75,0.369,0.2822,0.3489,93,0,team_a_win,20.0,-20.0,True,False,True,0.0078
chatgpt,m94,knockout,round_of_16,Portugal,Spain,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.25,0.28,0.47,draw,10,"Spain are the stronger side in my forecast: recent reports note a 3-0 win over Austria, a long unbeaten run, and the betting market makes Spain the clear 90-minute favorite. However, Portugal have a full squad available, dangerous transition attackers, and this rivalry has produced many tight 90-minute results, so the draw looks slightly more attractive than Spain at the listed price.",partially_correct,True,neither,I underweighted Spain's ability to turn their overall superiority into a narrow 90-minute win rather than another rivalry draw.,I overweighted the historical tendency for Portugal-Spain matches to stay level after 90 minutes.,"yes, I would either take Spain with a modest stake or choose no_bet because my own probabilities already made Spain the most likely result.",0.82,2,team_b_win,True,0.47,0.4218,0.7550225842780328,0.47,4.1,3.6,1.91,0.2333,0.2658,0.5009,94,2,team_b_win,10.0,-10.0,True,False,True,0.0142
chatgpt,m95,knockout,round_of_16,Switzerland,Colombia,0,0,draw,penalties,team_a,0.27,0.31,0.42,no_bet,0,"Colombia are the narrow 90-minute favorite in both sportsbook opening odds and live market-based previews, but the edge is small and the draw probability is high for a knockout match between two unbeaten, defensively solid teams. Colombia have conceded only once and have Luis Diaz as the main attacking difference-maker, while Switzerland's form and organization make this closer than a confident win bet. At typical prices around Colombia +120, my estimated 42% win probability is below the break-even point, so I would pass rather than force a bet.",partially_correct,True,neither,"I underweighted Switzerland's ability to neutralize Colombia over 120 minutes and keep the match in a low-scoring, penalty-dependent state.",I gave too much weight to Colombia's attacking edge and market-favorite status.,"no, because the match ending 0-0 and going to penalties supports the original no-bet decision more than a confident side pick.",0.82,2,team_b_win,False,0.31,0.7253999999999999,1.171182981502945,0.42,3.45,3.2,2.2,0.2743,0.2957,0.4301,95,2,team_b_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m96,knockout,round_of_16,Argentina,Egypt,3,2,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.7000000000000001,0.19,0.11,team_a_win,35,"Argentina are clear 90-minute favorites: Opta’s pre-match simulations give them a 69.1% regulation win probability, and Kalshi/Squawka market pricing is around 72% Argentina, 20% draw, 9-10% Egypt. I still keep the stake moderate because Argentina needed extra time against Cape Verde, both teams had short rest after 120-minute matches, and Egypt have Salah/Marmoush counterattacking threat even if Salah’s fitness is a concern.",correct,True,neither,I underweighted Egypt's ability to turn their counterattacking threat into multiple goals.,I overweighted Argentina's likelihood of controlling the match comfortably in regulation.,"no, because the Argentina win pick was still justified, but the close 3-2 result supports keeping the stake moderate rather than aggressive.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.7000000000000001,0.1381999999999999,0.3566749439387323,0.7000000000000001,1.37,4.7,9.0,0.6927,0.2019,0.1054,96,0,team_a_win,35.0,12.950000000000005,True,True,False,0.0073
chatgpt,m97,knockout,quarter_final,France,Morocco,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.55,0.27,0.18,team_b_win,12,"Market prices make France a clear favorite, and that is justified by their 5-0 tournament run, 14-2 goal margin, and attacking depth. I rate Morocco a little higher than the market because they are unbeaten in normal time, beat Canada 3-0, drew Brazil and the Netherlands, and their transition threat matches up well against France, though Saibari's likely absence limits upside. The Morocco win is still unlikely, so the stake is small and value-oriented rather than confidence-based.",partially_correct,True,neither,"I underweighted France's ability to control Morocco's transition threat and convert their overall superiority into a clean, low-risk win.",I gave too much weight to Morocco's upset/value case despite rating it as objectively unlikely.,"yes, I would either bet France or no_bet because my own probability estimate favored France while my value bet relied too heavily on Morocco outperforming the market.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.55,0.3077999999999999,0.5978370007556204,0.55,1.57,3.85,6.0,0.599,0.2443,0.1567,97,0,team_a_win,12.0,-12.0,True,False,True,0.0232999999999999
chatgpt,m98,knockout,quarter_final,Spain,Belgium,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.61,0.23,0.16,team_a_win,20,"Spain are the more likely 90-minute winner: they have reached the quarterfinals without conceding, while market odds and previews generally price them as clear favorites. Belgium have enough attacking quality to make this non-trivial, but Onana’s injury and Spain’s defensive control push my forecast slightly above the market break-even for a small Spain stake.",correct,True,neither,"Belgium's attacking threat was a bit stronger than I implied, since Spain did concede despite my emphasis on their defensive control.",Spain's clean-sheet run and defensive control,"no, because a small Spain win stake was consistent with the forecast and the result supports that Spain were favorites but not overwhelmingly so.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.61,0.2306,0.4942963218147801,0.61,1.63,3.9,5.5,0.5833,0.2438,0.1729,98,0,team_a_win,20.0,12.599999999999998,True,True,False,0.0266999999999999
chatgpt,m99,knockout,quarter_final,Argentina,Switzerland,3,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.57,0.27,0.16,no_bet,0,"Argentina are clear 90-minute favorites, supported by market prices around -140 to 4/6 and Switzerland missing leading scorer Johan Manzambi. However, my fair price is close to the no-vig market after accounting for Argentina's recent shaky knockout wins and Switzerland's defensive form, so I do not see enough edge to risk the virtual $100.",correct,True,neither,Argentina's attacking edge and finishing quality were stronger than I allowed for in a 57% win probability.,Switzerland's defensive resilience and Argentina's recent shakiness.,"yes, I would make a small Argentina win bet because my no-bet decision was too cautious relative to the eventual quality gap.",0.76,0,team_a_win,True,0.57,0.2834,0.5621189181535413,0.57,1.69,3.55,5.5,0.5607,0.2669,0.1723,99,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m100,knockout,quarter_final,Norway,England,1,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.24,0.25,0.51,team_b_win,65,"England enter the quarter-final as deserved favorites based on overall squad quality, midfield control, and consistent tournament form, although injuries and suspensions slightly reduce their edge. Norway's attacking trio led by Erling Haaland gives them a real upset chance, but England's deeper roster and greater chance creation make them the most likely winners in a tight match.",correct,True,neither,"Norway's ability to remain competitive through Haaland and transition attacks, making the margin only one goal instead of more comfortable for England.",England's squad depth as a source of a larger advantage over the full 90 minutes.,"no, because I would still have backed an England win, though I would expect a closer game than a comfortable victory.",0.92,2,team_b_win,True,0.51,0.3601999999999999,0.6733445532637656,0.51,3.8,3.5,1.95,0.2479,0.2691,0.483,100,2,team_b_win,65.0,61.75,True,True,False,0.027
chatgpt,m101,knockout,semi_final,France,Spain,0,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.42,0.28,0.3,team_a_win,30,"France are a narrow 90-minute favorite in the market and have the stronger tournament profile, including an unbeaten run, strong goal differential, and Mbappe-led attack. Spain are close to equal quality, unbeaten, defensively strong, and have recent head-to-head success against France, so I keep the draw and Spain probabilities substantial. The edge is modest, so I would stake only $30 of the $100 virtual budget on France to win in regulation.",incorrect,True,neither,I underweighted Spain's ability to control the match and convert their quality into a decisive regulation win rather than a draw or narrow France edge.,I gave too much weight to France's market-favorite status and attacking profile.,"yes, I would either reduce the France stake to no_bet or put a smaller value-oriented stake on Spain because my prior edge on France was too thin.",0.78,0,team_a_win,False,0.3,0.7447999999999999,1.203972804325936,0.42,2.35,3.25,3.15,0.405,0.2928,0.3021,101,0,team_a_win,30.0,-30.0,True,False,False,0.0149999999999999
chatgpt,m102,knockout,semi_final,England,Argentina,1,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.35,0.31,0.34,team_b_win,15,"Market prices I found make England only a very slight 90-minute favorite, while other previews emphasize Argentina’s knockout resilience and Messi’s continued creative/scoring influence. England’s attacking form and Bellingham/Kane upside keep this close, but injury/fitness notes around England and Argentina’s tournament mentality make Argentina at roughly +200 the best small-edge virtual play.",correct,True,neither,I underweighted Argentina's ability to turn a close match into a regulation-time win rather than a draw.,I gave too much weight to England's attacking upside and the market's view of England as a slight favorite.,"yes, I would still pick Argentina but with a slightly larger stake because the pre-match edge I identified was directionally right.",0.72,0,team_a_win,False,0.34,0.6541999999999999,1.0788096613719298,0.35,2.55,3.0,3.05,0.3723,0.3164,0.3113,102,0,team_a_win,15.0,30.75,True,True,True,0.0287
chatgpt,m103,knockout,third_place,France,England,4,6,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.49,0.25,0.26,no_bet,0,"France has the stronger attacking ceiling and Mbappe remains motivated by the Golden Boot race, but Saliba's expected absence and likely squad rotation reduce its advantage. Available odds imply approximately a 50%-25%-25% split after removing the bookmaker margin, closely matching my forecast and leaving no meaningful betting edge.",incorrect,True,neither,"England's ability to exploit an open, high-scoring match and convert enough chances to outscore France",France's attacking ceiling and presumed overall advantage,"no, because the original no-bet decision was appropriate given the small perceived edge and substantial uncertainty.",0.84,0,team_a_win,False,0.26,0.8502,1.3470736479666092,0.49,2.05,3.55,3.55,0.4641,0.268,0.268,103,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
chatgpt,m104,knockout,final,Spain,Argentina,1,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.44,0.31,0.25,no_bet,0,"Spain's collective control and tournament-best defensive record—one goal conceded in seven matches—give them the edge, while Argentina have needed several difficult knockout-stage escapes despite Messi's eight goals and four assists. The available regulation odds imply roughly 44% Spain, 32% draw and 25% Argentina after removing the bookmaker margin, closely matching my forecast, so I see no meaningful betting value.",correct,True,neither,I underweighted how strongly Spain's defensive control would suppress Argentina's scoring chances.,Argentina's ability to survive difficult knockout matches and turn a close final in their favor.,"no, because Spain winning does not show that the pre-match odds offered enough value to justify a bet.",0.9,0,team_a_win,True,0.44,0.4722,0.8209805520698302,0.44,2.25,3.0,3.6,0.4211,0.3158,0.2632,104,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
gemini,m01,group,group,Mexico,South Africa,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.68,0.22,0.1,team_a_win,100,"Javier Aguirre's possession-based system and tactically disciplined low-block will likely neutralize South Africa's transitional threats. Furthermore, the extreme altitude of Estadio Azteca provides an unparalleled physiological advantage for El Tri against a Bafana Bafana squad largely tied to the domestic PSL. Factoring in Mexico's formidable defensive record and a -240 moneyline, backing the host nation provides the most statistically and structurally sound expected value.",,,,,,,,0,team_a_win,True,0.68,0.1607999999999999,0.3856624808119846,0.68,1.4,4.6,8.0,0.676,0.2057,0.1183,1,0,team_a_win,100.0,39.99999999999999,True,True,False,0.004
gemini,m02,group,group,Korea Republic,Czechia,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.45,0.3,0.25,team_a_win,100,"South Korea boasts a superior roster featuring world-class talent like Son Heung-Min, Kim Min-Jae, and Lee Kang-In, reflected in their higher FIFA ranking (25th vs 41st). While Czechia enters with solid unbeaten form in recent pre-tournament friendlies, the Taegeuk Warriors' top-tier experience gives them a distinct edge in this Group A opener. Allocating the full $100 budget to a South Korea win maximizes value given their clear squad advantages.",partially_correct,False,neither,the individual quality and resilience of South Korea's star players to overcome their tactical adjustments,last-minute pre-match reports regarding formation changes and shifting market odds,"yes, I would maintain my original T-24h bet on a South Korea win and avoid overreacting to late-breaking tactical noise.",0.95,0,team_a_win,True,0.45,0.455,0.7985076962177716,0.45,2.55,3.15,2.85,0.3698,0.2994,0.3309,2,0,team_a_win,100.0,154.99999999999997,True,True,False,0.0802
gemini,m03,group,group,USA,Paraguay,4,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.55,0.28,0.17,team_a_win,100,"The United States enters this opening Group D match with significant home-field advantage in Los Angeles and the confidence of a recent 2-1 friendly victory over Paraguay in November 2025. While Paraguay boasts a resilient defense forged in CONMEBOL qualifying, the USMNT's attacking depth and the intense home crowd support make them the statistical favorites. Backing the USA to secure three points is the most structurally sound choice given their historically strong performance metrics on domestic soil.",,,,,,,,0,team_a_win,True,0.55,0.3097999999999999,0.5978370007556204,0.55,1.9523809523809523,3.4,4.2,0.4904,0.2816,0.228,3,0,team_a_win,100.0,95.23809523809524,True,True,False,0.0596
gemini,m04,group,group,Canada,Bosnia and Herzegovina,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.38,0.35,0.27,draw,100,"While Canada benefits from an electric home atmosphere at Toronto Stadium, the loss of captain Alphonso Davies to a hamstring injury forces Jesse Marsch to drastically alter his transitional tactics against a battle-hardened Bosnian side. Bosnia arrives highly resilient after a dramatic playoff run, relying on the veteran savvy of Edin Dzeko and a compact defensive shape led by Sead Kolasinac to absorb pressure. Given Canada's historic World Cup winless streak and the immense psychological weight of an opening home match, a tactical stalemate presents the most analytically sound value.",correct,True,neither,Canada's ability to generate alternative attacking threats to score despite the absence of Alphonso Davies.,none,"No, because wagering on a draw offered the highest analytical value given the expected tactical stalemate, and the 1-1 result vindicated that strategy.",0.95,0,team_a_win,False,0.35,0.6398,1.0498221244986778,0.38,1.8333333333333333,3.65,4.7,0.5284,0.2654,0.2061,4,0,team_a_win,100.0,265.0,True,True,True,0.0845999999999999
gemini,m05,group,group,Qatar,Switzerland,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.08,0.17,0.75,team_b_win,100,"While Qatar will likely employ a low-block defensive structure to frustrate their opponents, Switzerland's tactical versatility under Murat Yakin—specifically their successful integration of a 3-4-3 system with Denis Zakaria aggressively overlapping—should effectively stretch the Qatari shape. Switzerland's superior midfield pivot of Xhaka and Freuler will dominate possession and easily exploit the transition vulnerabilities Qatar recently displayed in scoreless and winless friendlies against El Salvador and Ireland. Therefore, a full-stake bet on a dominant Swiss victory offers robust value given the stark disparity in both individual quality and collective tactical execution.",incorrect,True,unlucky,The persistent resilience of Qatar's low-block defensive structure in preventing a multi-goal deficit despite facing overwhelming possession.,Switzerland's attacking ruthlessness and ability to efficiently translate midfield dominance into actual goal conversions.,"no, backing a heavily favored team with a clear tactical and talent advantage remains a positive expected value decision despite the variance of a single draw.",0.85,2,team_b_win,False,0.17,1.2578,1.7719568419318752,0.75,12.0,6.5,1.2222222222222223,0.079,0.1458,0.7753,5,2,team_b_win,100.0,-100.0,True,False,False,-0.0252999999999999
gemini,m06,group,group,Brazil,Morocco,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.45,0.35,0.2,draw,40,"While public sentiment overwhelmingly favors Brazil, Morocco's elite defensive organization under Walid Regragui and their recent 1-1 draw against a strong Norway squad demonstrate their sustained ability to neutralize top-tier attacking talent. Furthermore, Morocco's 2-1 victory over Brazil in 2023, coupled with Brazil's narrow 2-1 friendly win against Egypt last week, exposes lingering vulnerabilities in Brazil's ability to dismantle disciplined low blocks. Consequently, backing a tactical draw offers significantly higher expected value than a conventional Brazil win for this opening Group C fixture.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, the pre-match tactical reasoning accurately identified the high expected value in backing a draw against the public consensus.",0.95,0,team_a_win,False,0.35,0.665,1.0498221244986778,0.45,1.598802395209581,3.9,5.0,0.5781,0.237,0.1849,6,0,team_a_win,40.0,116.0,True,True,True,0.1129999999999999
gemini,m07,group,group,Haiti,Scotland,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.16,0.23,0.61,team_b_win,100,"Scotland boasts a significantly more experienced squad featuring top-flight European talent like Andy Robertson and Scott McTominay, whereas Haiti is making its first World Cup appearance in 52 years. Furthermore, Scotland enters the tournament in excellent form, having outscored their opponents 8-1 in recent friendlies. Despite the anticipated heavy crowd support for Haiti from the local diaspora in Boston, Scotland's tactical superiority and depth make them the highly probable winner.",correct,True,neither,Haiti's defensive organization and resilience in a low block,Scotland's recent high-scoring offensive form in pre-tournament friendlies,"no, because backing Scotland's superior technical quality was the correct value decision, even if the final margin was narrow.",0.95,2,team_b_win,True,0.61,0.2306,0.4942963218147801,0.61,6.25,4.75,1.5882352941176472,0.16,0.2105,0.6295,7,2,team_b_win,100.0,58.82352941176472,True,True,False,-0.0194999999999999
gemini,m08,group,group,Australia,Türkiye,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.2,0.28,0.52,team_b_win,40,"Türkiye enters the match with significant momentum and a deeper pool of top-flight European talent, anchored by dynamic playmakers like Arda Güler. In contrast, Australia is fielding a heavily retooled squad under Tony Popovic that includes 17 World Cup debutants, which may leave them vulnerable on the game's biggest stage. Backing a Türkiye victory offers the best value given their structural and experiential advantages.",incorrect,False,neither,Australia's tactical cohesion and defensive discipline under Tony Popovic despite their squad's lack of tournament experience.,Türkiye's individual talent pool and recent European momentum relative to their collective tournament readiness.,"Yes, I would pass on the bet or heavily adjust the probabilities to account for Australia's structural resilience on home soil.",0.9,2,team_b_win,False,0.2,0.9888,1.6094379124341005,0.52,5.0,3.75,1.7,0.1896,0.2528,0.5576,8,2,team_b_win,40.0,-40.0,True,False,False,-0.0375999999999999
gemini,m09,group,group,Germany,Curaçao,7,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.88,0.09,0.03,team_a_win,100,"Germany enters this Group E opener with overwhelming structural advantages, including elite player valuations, tactical maturity, and a robust track record in high-stakes World Cup environments. While Curaçao's unprecedented qualification demonstrates impressive regional progress, the vast disparity in top-flight international experience heavily concentrates the probabilistic outcome on a German victory, making a maximum stake the most mathematically sound position.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, placing the maximum stake on a fundamentally sound, extremely high-probability outcome was validated by the match reality.",0.95,0,team_a_win,True,0.88,0.0234,0.1278333715098848,0.88,1.04,19.0,34.0,0.9214,0.0504,0.0282,9,0,team_a_win,100.0,4.000000000000004,True,True,False,-0.0413999999999999
gemini,m10,group,group,Netherlands,Japan,2,2,draw,regulation,,0.42,0.31,0.27,draw,40,"Despite the traditional prestige of the Netherlands, their recent pre-tournament form exposes defensive vulnerabilities, having failed to keep a clean sheet in their last four matches including a loss to Algeria. Japan has demonstrated elite tactical discipline by recently securing three consecutive 1-0 victories against formidable European sides like England and Scotland. This stylistic clash between a disjointed Dutch defense and a highly organized Japanese block creates a high probability for a tightly contested stalemate.",correct,True,lucky,Japan's offensive potency and ability to capitalize in a high-scoring shootout.,The probability of a low-scoring affair dictated entirely by Japan's disciplined defensive block.,"no, because capitalizing on the Netherlands' defensive flaws to predict a stalemate ultimately yielded a winning bet, despite the unexpected volume of goals.",0.9,0,team_a_win,False,0.31,0.7253999999999998,1.171182981502945,0.42,2.0,3.5,3.6,0.4701,0.2687,0.2612,10,0,team_a_win,40.0,100.0,True,True,True,0.0413
gemini,m11,group,group,Côte d'Ivoire,Ecuador,1,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.32,0.36,0.32,draw,30,"Both Côte d'Ivoire and Ecuador enter this Group E opener boasting exceptional defensive records and recent giant-killing pedigree, with the Elephants stunning France 2-1 and La Tri blanking Argentina 1-0 in their tune-up phases. The tactical clash between Ecuador's Moisés Caicedo-anchored midfield and Ivory Coast's physical spine of Franck Kessié and Evan Ndicka will severely restrict transition spaces and dictate a low-block battle of attrition. Because avoiding an opening-day defeat is paramount in a group containing Germany, backing a highly pragmatic, low-scoring stalemate provides the sharpest edge.",incorrect,True,neither,Ivory Coast's individual attacking quality or set-piece threat capable of breaking a low-block stalemate.,Ecuador's defensive resilience and ability to maintain a clean sheet for the full 90 minutes.,"no, because a 1-0 result in an expected low-scoring battle of attrition falls within normal statistical variance rather than indicating a fundamental flaw in the initial risk assessment.",0.9,1,draw,False,0.32,0.6943999999999999,1.1394342831883648,0.36,3.5,2.75,2.4,0.268,0.3411,0.3909,11,2,team_b_win,30.0,-30.0,True,False,True,0.0188999999999999
gemini,m12,group,group,Sweden,Tunisia,5,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.54,0.28,0.18,team_a_win,60,"Sweden holds a qualitative advantage over Tunisia, possessing superior tactical depth and a proven track record of advancing in World Cup tournaments. While Tunisia often deploys a resilient defensive block, their historical inability to generate high-leverage scoring chances against organized European opposition limits their win equity. Backing a Swedish victory provides the most favorable expected value for this Group F opener.",correct,True,neither,the true extent of Tunisia's defensive fragility when forced to chase the game,the expected resilience of Tunisia's low block against organized European attacks,"no, because backing the qualitative favorite was the correct expected value play and the result validated the core reasoning.",0.9,0,team_a_win,True,0.54,0.3223999999999999,0.616186139423817,0.54,1.9,3.4,4.333333333333334,0.5007,0.2798,0.2195,12,0,team_a_win,60.0,53.99999999999999,True,True,False,0.0393
gemini,m13,group,group,Spain,Cabo Verde,0,0,draw,regulation,,0.85,0.11,0.04,team_a_win,100,"Spain enters their 2026 World Cup opener as overwhelming favorites, boasting a deep, star-studded roster featuring Rodri and Lamine Yamal alongside a dominant 21-2 goal differential in qualifiers. Although Cabo Verde arrives in excellent form following an unbeaten run to their historic maiden World Cup appearance, Spain's overwhelming tactical superiority and possession-based control make an upset highly unlikely.",incorrect,False,unlucky,Cabo Verde's deep defensive resilience and their ability to successfully absorb pressure against a superior opponent.,Spain's attacking efficiency and the assumption that their possession dominance would inevitably translate into goals.,"No, betting on a heavy favorite with an 85% win probability remains a sound positive expected value strategy despite the variance of a single match.",0.9,0,team_a_win,False,0.11,1.5162,2.2072749131897207,0.85,1.09891196834817,14.29,25.0,0.8922,0.0686,0.0392,13,0,team_a_win,100.0,-100.0,True,False,False,-0.0422
gemini,m14,group,group,IR Iran,New Zealand,2,2,draw,regulation,,0.58,0.26,0.16,team_a_win,75,"Iran possesses superior squad quality and greater tournament pedigree, anchored by experienced attackers. Although their chaotic, politically disrupted preparations and last-minute arrival from Mexico introduce significant fatigue and distraction risks, New Zealand typically lacks the offensive firepower to capitalize fully against higher-tier international defenses.",incorrect,True,neither,New Zealand's offensive capability to capitalize on a fatigued defense and score multiple goals,Iran's historical squad quality and ability to dominate possession despite their severe travel disruptions,"yes, I would have reduced the stake or avoided the bet entirely, recognizing that severe off-field chaos creates too much variance for a confident favorite pick.",0.9,0,team_a_win,False,0.26,0.9096,1.3470736479666092,0.58,1.8333333333333333,3.4,4.75,0.5194,0.2801,0.2005,14,0,team_a_win,75.0,-75.0,True,False,False,0.0605999999999999
gemini,m16,group,group,Belgium,Egypt,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.62,0.24,0.14,team_a_win,100,"Despite Belgium's impressive 13-game unbeaten streak, their reliance on relatively untested defensive youth like Nathan Ngoy presents transition opportunities that Egypt's lethal duo of Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush could effectively exploit. However, Rudi Garcia's structured tactical framework allows Kevin De Bruyne and an in-form Jeremy Doku to relentlessly dominate possession and eventually break down Egypt's low block. The stabilizing return of elite goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois and vastly superior bench depth give Belgium the decisive margin needed to secure all three points.",incorrect,False,neither,The underdog's defensive resilience and their ability to effectively neutralize the favored team's key playmakers.,"The attacking depth, possession dominance, and overall talent disparity favoring the stronger side.","yes, I would have factored in the high variance of international tournament matches and placed a smaller stake or hedged with a double chance bet.",0.9,0,team_a_win,False,0.24,0.9816,1.4271163556401458,0.62,1.6451612903225803,3.85,5.25,0.5745,0.2455,0.18,16,0,team_a_win,100.0,-100.0,True,False,False,0.0454999999999999
gemini,m15,group,group,Saudi Arabia,Uruguay,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.12,0.2,0.68,team_b_win,100,"Uruguay enters as heavy favorites due to superior individual quality, driven by Federico Valverde and Marcelo Bielsa's high-intensity pressing system. Conversely, Saudi Arabia arrives in poor form with only one win in their last five matches, making them highly vulnerable to Uruguay's quick transitions and relentless tempo. Given the significant talent disparity and tactical mismatch, fully backing a Uruguayan victory provides the most mathematically sound edge.",incorrect,False,neither,the underdog's ability to maintain a disciplined defensive block and frustrate a superior opponent in a high-stakes tournament setting,the favorite's individual attacking quality and ability to break down a low block efficiently,"yes, I would reduce the stake size rather than committing the full budget to account for the inherent variance of international football.",0.9,2,team_b_win,False,0.2,1.1168000000000002,1.6094379124341005,0.68,8.33,3.8,1.4716981132075473,0.113,0.2476,0.6394,15,2,team_b_win,100.0,-100.0,True,False,False,0.0406
gemini,m17,group,group,Austria,Jordan,3,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.74,0.17,0.09,team_a_win,100,"Under Ralf Rangnick, Austria has developed into a formidable pressing side with extensive European top-flight experience, significantly outmatching a debuting Jordan squad. Betting markets strongly favor Austria (-290), reflecting the stark contrast in squad depth and tactical pedigree.",correct,True,neither,Jordan's capacity to find the back of the net against a high-pressing European side.,none,"no, betting the maximum on a clear favorite with a massive tactical advantage was the mathematically correct decision.",0.95,0,team_a_win,True,0.74,0.1046,0.3011050927839216,0.74,1.3846153846153846,4.7,8.0,0.6813,0.2007,0.1179,17,0,team_a_win,100.0,38.46153846153846,True,True,False,0.0586999999999999
gemini,m18,group,group,France,Senegal,3,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.7200000000000001,0.18,0.1,team_a_win,100,"France enters this matchup with an exceptionally deep roster, showcasing structural solidity and elite attacking metrics that make them a heavy statistical favorite. While the narrative of Senegal's historic 2002 upset looms, the underlying tactical data highlights France's consistent ability to dominate possession and exploit transitional spaces against mid-block defenses. Wagering on a comprehensive French victory offers the most mathematically sound value given the stark disparity in overall squad depth and recent competitive form.",correct,True,neither,Senegal's offensive capability to breach the French defense and score.,"France's defensive structural solidity, given they conceded a goal.","no, the core prediction of a French victory was entirely validated by the final result.",0.9,0,team_a_win,True,0.7200000000000001,0.1207999999999999,0.3285040669720359,0.7200000000000001,1.4545454545454546,4.5,7.0,0.6532,0.2111,0.1357,18,0,team_a_win,100.0,45.45454545454546,True,True,False,0.0668
gemini,m19,group,group,Iraq,Norway,1,4,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.05,0.14,0.81,team_b_win,100,"Norway's dominant UEFA qualifying run, highlighted by 37 goals and an elite attacking core, exposes a severe structural mismatch against an Iraqi side appearing in their first World Cup since 1986. While betting heavily favored moneylines sacrifices yield, backing Norway remains the most analytically sound equity decision given the stark contrast in squad depth and tactical pedigree. I am allocating the full budget to capitalize on Norway's highly probable victory.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, because the maximum allocation correctly capitalized on a highly probable outcome that played out exactly as expected.",0.95,2,team_b_win,True,0.81,0.0581999999999999,0.2107210313156525,0.81,13.0,7.0,1.2,0.073,0.1357,0.7913,19,2,team_b_win,100.0,20.0,True,True,False,0.0187
gemini,m20,group,group,Argentina,Algeria,3,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.75,0.18,0.07,team_a_win,100,"Argentina enters the 2026 World Cup as defending champions in exceptional form, having swept their recent 2026 friendlies while keeping four clean sheets. Although Algeria has rebuilt momentum under Vladimir Petkovic to qualify for their first World Cup since 2014, the vast disparity in squad depth, high-pressure tournament experience, and sheer technical quality makes an Argentina victory highly probable.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, the forecast accurately identified the significant talent gap, making a maximum stake on Argentina the right move.",0.95,0,team_a_win,True,0.75,0.0998,0.2876820724517809,0.75,1.4081632653061225,4.76,9.09,0.6893,0.2039,0.1068,20,0,team_a_win,100.0,40.81632653061224,True,True,False,0.0606999999999999
gemini,m21,group,group,Portugal,Congo DR,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.7300000000000001,0.18,0.09,team_a_win,100,"Portugal enters this Group K match as a heavy favorite with a star-studded squad and an unbeaten run in their recent preparation matches. DR Congo is making its first World Cup appearance since 1974 and, despite a disciplined defensive structure, lacks the depth to consistently handle Portugal's relentless attacking pace. Backing a Portugal win offers the most reliable return on investment given the stark difference in international pedigree and overall squad quality.",incorrect,False,neither,The sheer effectiveness and resilience of DR Congo's defensive structure under tournament pressure.,The raw disparity in squad quality and international pedigree.,"yes, I would lower the stake or avoid straight bets on heavy favorites in opening group matches due to high variance.",0.85,0,team_a_win,False,0.18,1.2134,1.7147984280919266,0.7300000000000001,1.2702702702702702,5.6,12.0,0.7504,0.1702,0.0794,21,0,team_a_win,100.0,-100.0,True,False,False,-0.0203999999999998
gemini,m22,group,group,England,Croatia,4,2,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.58,0.26,0.16,team_a_win,50,"England's flawless UEFA qualifying record under Thomas Tuchel reveals a highly structured tactical approach that minimizes defensive vulnerabilities while maximizing the impact of elite athletes like Jude Bellingham. Conversely, while Croatia retains formidable ball retention capabilities, their reliance on an aging veteran core makes them highly susceptible to transition-heavy, high-pressing systems in exhausting Texas heat. A $50 stake on England balances confidence in their athletic and tactical superiority against the inherent variance of opening group-stage fixtures.",correct,True,neither,"England's defensive vulnerabilities in an open game, which allowed Croatia to find the net twice despite expectations of a tight structure.",England's ability to completely minimize defensive risks and cleanly suppress Croatia's scoring opportunities.,"no, because my core thesis of England's athletic and transition superiority overcoming Croatia's aging core proved fundamentally accurate in securing the victory.",0.9,0,team_a_win,True,0.58,0.2696,0.5447271754416722,0.58,1.6993006993006992,3.65,5.3,0.5599,0.2606,0.1795,22,0,team_a_win,50.0,34.96503496503496,True,True,False,0.0201
gemini,m23,group,group,Ghana,Panama,1,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.48,0.31,0.21,team_a_win,55,"Ghana boasts a superior attacking frontline with dynamic players like Antoine Semenyo and Iñaki Williams, showing improved tactical cohesion and mid-block pressing under manager Carlos Queiroz in their recent warmup against Wales. Although Thomas Partey's unexpected absence due to Canadian entry issues is a significant midfield blow, Panama's historical struggles against high-intensity squads in major tournaments give the Black Stars a distinct edge.",correct,True,neither,"Panama's defensive resilience, which successfully limited Ghana's dynamic attacking frontline to a narrow one-goal margin.","The severity of Thomas Partey's absence as a midfield blow, which ultimately did not prevent Ghana from controlling the game enough to win.","no, the forecast accurately identified Ghana's attacking quality as the decisive edge to justify the moderate stake.",0.9,0,team_a_win,True,0.48,0.4106,0.7339691750802004,0.48,2.35,3.1,3.2,0.4012,0.3041,0.2946,23,0,team_a_win,55.0,74.25,True,True,False,0.0787999999999999
gemini,m24,group,group,Uzbekistan,Colombia,1,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.1,0.18,0.72,team_b_win,100,"Colombia enters the tournament as clear favorites, bringing an experienced squad and a formidable attack led by Luis Diaz and James Rodriguez. As World Cup debutants, Uzbekistan's defense will likely struggle against Colombia's high-caliber pressure, especially after dropping both of their recent warm-up matches. A definitive Colombia victory is the most mathematically and tactically sound outcome.",correct,True,neither,"Uzbekistan's attacking capability to secure a goal, as my analysis focused almost exclusively on their defensive vulnerabilities.",none,"no, betting the maximum stake on a heavily favored Colombia proved to be the correct value decision given the distinct skill gap.",0.95,2,team_b_win,True,0.72,0.1208,0.3285040669720361,0.72,8.5,4.5,1.4,0.1116,0.2108,0.6776,24,2,team_b_win,100.0,39.99999999999999,True,True,False,0.0423999999999999
gemini,m25,group,group,Mexico,Korea Republic,1,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.45,0.3,0.25,draw,100,"Both teams secured opening victories and share the top of Group A, meaning a mutually beneficial draw places both in a prime position to advance to the knockout rounds. Mexico's defense is weakened by César Montes's red card suspension, while South Korea's disciplined low-block approach and early altitude acclimation point strongly toward a cautious, low-scoring stalemate.",incorrect,True,neither,Mexico's attacking quality and ability to break down South Korea's low block despite a cautious game script.,The game theory assumption that both teams would settle for a mutually beneficial draw.,"yes, I would trust my highest assigned probability (45% for a Mexico win) instead of betting on a narrative-driven draw.",0.9,0,team_a_win,True,0.45,0.455,0.7985076962177716,0.45,2.04,3.45,4.17,0.4807,0.2842,0.2351,25,0,team_a_win,100.0,-100.0,True,False,True,0.0157999999999999
gemini,m26,group,group,Canada,Qatar,6,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.7200000000000001,0.19,0.09,team_a_win,80,"Canada holds a significant squad quality advantage over Qatar, led by European-based stars like Jonathan David, and will benefit heavily from the home crowd at BC Place. While Alphonso Davies's injury status is a concern, Qatar's squad relies primarily on domestic league players and may struggle against Canada's high-intensity pressing. Given the stakes after both teams drew their openers, Canada is heavily favored to secure all three points.",correct,True,neither,Qatar's extreme defensive fragility and inability to cope with Canada's intensity on foreign soil,Alphonso Davies's injury status as a potential limiting factor for Canada's attack,"no, because predicting a Canada win with a strong $80 stake was the correct read, and increasing it to $100 would merely be hindsight bias.",0.95,0,team_a_win,True,0.7200000000000001,0.1225999999999999,0.3285040669720359,0.7200000000000001,1.2597402597402598,5.75,9.75,0.7417,0.1625,0.0958,26,0,team_a_win,80.0,20.779220779220783,True,True,False,-0.0216999999999999
gemini,m27,group,group,Switzerland,Bosnia and Herzegovina,4,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.55,0.28,0.17,team_a_win,60,"Switzerland dominated their opening match against Qatar with 26 shots and possesses superior overall squad quality. While Bosnia and Herzegovina have proven defensively resilient with a recent string of draws, Switzerland's persistent attacking volume makes them strong favorites. Their urgent need for a win to secure advancement from Group B should provide the necessary push to break through Bosnia's defense.",correct,True,neither,Switzerland's clinical finishing efficiency,Bosnia and Herzegovina's defensive resilience,"No, because Switzerland's superior squad depth and high offensive volume fully justified a confident wager on their victory.",0.95,0,team_a_win,True,0.55,0.3097999999999999,0.5978370007556204,0.55,1.57,4.0,5.8,0.6013,0.236,0.1628,27,0,team_a_win,60.0,34.2,True,True,False,-0.0512999999999999
gemini,m28,group,group,Czechia,South Africa,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.55,0.25,0.2,team_a_win,65,"Czechia enters as the clear betting favorite (-125) after showing promising offensive capability in their narrow 2-1 opening loss to South Korea. Conversely, South Africa is under immense pressure after a 2-0 loss to Mexico where they lost two starting players, Yaya Sithole and Themba Zwane, to straight red cards. These critical suspensions severely weaken South Africa's midfield and tactical structure, creating a highly advantageous situation for Czechia to secure three points.",incorrect,True,unlucky,South Africa's defensive resilience and tactical adjustments to compensate for their suspended midfielders.,The direct negative impact of missing Sithole and Zwane on South Africa's ability to secure a result.,"no, betting on a clear favorite against a team missing two key starting midfielders remains a fundamentally sound strategy despite this specific outcome.",0.9,0,team_a_win,False,0.25,0.905,1.3862943611198906,0.55,1.8,3.7,4.5,0.5301,0.2579,0.212,28,0,team_a_win,65.0,-65.0,True,False,False,0.0199
gemini,m29,group,group,USA,Australia,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.55,0.25,0.2,team_a_win,100,"Moving beyond superficial home-field narratives, the USMNT possesses a distinct structural advantage in midfield and attack, highlighted by attackers who successfully exploited Australia's defensive shape in their recent October 2025 victory. While Australia's transitional resilience is notable, the combination of tactical depth and the intense environment at Seattle Stadium creates a high-conviction value proposition. Allocating the full budget to a USA win represents a calculated exploitation of these underlying tactical discrepancies rather than simply following the consensus.",correct,True,neither,"The absolute effectiveness of the USMNT's defensive pressing triggers, which completely neutralized Australia's ability to build out and secured a clean sheet.","Australia's transitional resilience, which I assumed would create enough variance to warrant a combined 45% probability for a draw or away win.","no, because maxing the $100 stake on the structurally sound thesis of USMNT midfield dominance yielded the optimal return.",0.9,0,team_a_win,True,0.55,0.3049999999999999,0.5978370007556204,0.55,1.625,4.2,5.2,0.5884,0.2277,0.1839,29,0,team_a_win,100.0,62.5,True,True,False,-0.0383999999999999
gemini,m30,group,group,Türkiye,Paraguay,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.55,0.25,0.2,team_a_win,100,"Both teams are facing immense pressure after losing their Group D openers, making this a pivotal survival match. Paraguay's defense was exposed in their 4-1 defeat to the United States, presenting an opportunity for Türkiye's talented attacking core of Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız to capitalize. Given Türkiye's superior pre-tournament form and deeper squad quality, backing them to secure three points offers the most logical betting angle.",incorrect,False,neither,Paraguay's defensive resilience and ability to adjust their shape to secure a clean sheet after a heavy previous defeat.,The ability of Türkiye's young attacking core to easily exploit spaces and capitalize on pressure.,"yes, I would have staked much less or avoided the bet entirely given the high volatility of two desperate teams fighting for tournament survival.",0.9,0,team_a_win,False,0.2,1.005,1.6094379124341005,0.55,2.05,3.3,3.8,0.4628,0.2875,0.2497,30,0,team_a_win,100.0,-100.0,True,False,False,0.0872
gemini,m31,group,group,Brazil,Haiti,3,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.9,0.08,0.02,team_a_win,100,"Brazil's tactical setup under Carlo Ancelotti struggled against Morocco, but their overwhelming attacking firepower should easily dismantle a low-block Haitian side. Haiti's metrics from their opening loss showed defensive resilience but an inability to sustain possession in the final third, neutralizing their counter-attacking threat against elite opposition. With Brazil urgently needing a win to secure group advancement, a decisive victory is a highly probable outcome with minimal statistical variance.",correct,True,neither,none,Brazil's prior tactical vulnerabilities against defensive blocks,"No, because backing a heavily favored elite team with a maximum stake remains the mathematically optimal decision when they secure a comfortable 3-0 victory.",0.95,0,team_a_win,True,0.9,0.0167999999999999,0.1053605156578262,0.9,1.125,9.5,20.0,0.8513,0.1008,0.0479,31,0,team_a_win,100.0,12.5,True,True,False,0.0487
gemini,m32,group,group,Scotland,Morocco,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.18,0.24,0.58,team_b_win,100,"Morocco demonstrated their status as legitimate contenders with a tactically dominant 1-1 draw against Brazil in their opener, showcasing high-level pressing and technical ability. Conversely, Scotland struggled to secure a narrow 1-0 win over Haiti, losing the expected goals (xG) battle despite the favorable result. Given Morocco's superiority in midfield and ability to exploit tiring defenses, backing them to secure all three points presents the strongest analytical value.",correct,True,neither,"Scotland's capacity to maintain defensive discipline and absorb pressure for long stretches, preventing a wider goal margin despite Morocco's dominance.","The extent to which Morocco would ruthlessly exploit a tiring defense, as the narrow 1-0 result indicates Scotland remained compact until the end.","no, the fundamental assessment of Morocco's tactical superiority and game control was accurate and justified the maximum stake.",0.95,2,team_b_win,True,0.58,0.2664,0.5447271754416722,0.58,5.0,3.6,1.7272727272727273,0.1893,0.2629,0.5479,32,2,team_b_win,100.0,72.72727272727273,True,True,False,0.0320999999999999
gemini,m33,group,group,Tunisia,Japan,0,4,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.14,0.22,0.64,team_b_win,100,"Japan enters this match with strong momentum after a solid 2-2 draw against the Netherlands, while Tunisia is in crisis following a 5-1 defeat to Sweden and a disruptive managerial change. The Samurai Blue possess superior squad depth, tactical cohesion, and a flawless competitive win record against Tunisia. Backing Japan to win is the most logical bet given Tunisia's current defensive instabilities and severe lack of preparation time under new coach Hervé Renard.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, because the pre-match analysis accurately identified the mismatch in team momentum and tactical stability, fully justifying the maximum stake on Japan.",1.0,2,team_b_win,True,0.64,0.1976,0.4462871026284195,0.64,6.5,4.0,1.5333333333333332,0.1457,0.2367,0.6176,33,2,team_b_win,100.0,53.33333333333332,True,True,False,0.0223999999999999
gemini,m34,group,group,Ecuador,Curaçao,0,0,draw,regulation,,0.85,0.11,0.04,team_a_win,100,"Ecuador possesses a superior squad with deep tournament experience and established talents like Enner Valencia, creating a massive quality mismatch against the 83rd-ranked debutants. Curaçao's defensive vulnerability was exposed completely in their 7-1 loss to Germany, leaving them ill-equipped to handle an Ecuadorian side desperate for three points after dropping their opener. A maximum stake is justified given the stark contrast in both team pedigree and immediate tactical necessity.",incorrect,False,unlucky,"Curaçao's tactical adjustment to defend in a deep, highly disciplined low block to prevent another blowout.",Ecuador's attacking potency and their ability to easily break down a deeply entrenched underdog.,"yes, I would have lowered my stake and given higher probability to a draw, acknowledging the high variance in soccer when a superior team faces a desperate, defense-first opponent.",0.9,0,team_a_win,False,0.11,1.5162,2.2072749131897207,0.85,1.1,10.0,21.0,0.8603,0.0946,0.0451,34,0,team_a_win,100.0,-100.0,True,False,False,-0.0102999999999999
gemini,m35,group,group,Germany,Côte d'Ivoire,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.7200000000000001,0.18,0.1,team_a_win,100,"Germany enters the match with massive momentum after a dominant 7-0 opening victory over Curacao, demonstrating a lethal and well-oiled attack. While Côte d'Ivoire showed resilience in their 1-0 win against Ecuador, Germany's tactical discipline and superior depth make them heavy favorites. Placing the full $100 stake on a German victory is the most statistically sound virtual bet.",correct,True,neither,Côte d'Ivoire's offensive capability to effectively counter-attack and breach Germany's defense.,"Germany's overwhelming offensive momentum from their prior 7-0 victory, which faced much stiffer resistance here.","no, placing the stake on the highest-probability outcome remains the statistically optimal strategy even if the margin of victory was narrow.",0.9,0,team_a_win,True,0.7200000000000001,0.1207999999999999,0.3285040669720359,0.7200000000000001,1.5494505494505495,4.7,5.5,0.6206,0.2046,0.1748,35,0,team_a_win,100.0,54.94505494505495,True,True,False,0.0994
gemini,m36,group,group,Netherlands,Sweden,5,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.55,0.24,0.21,team_b_win,25,"Although the Netherlands enter as betting favorites, their defense looked vulnerable in a 2-2 opening draw against Japan. Conversely, Sweden showcased a highly potent attack featuring Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres in their dominant 5-1 opener. At +358 odds, backing Sweden provides positive expected value given their current goal-scoring momentum against a shaky Dutch backline.",incorrect,False,neither,"The vulnerability of Sweden's defense when tested by an elite attack, rather than a weaker opponent.",Sweden's offensive momentum and goal-scoring form from their opening match.,"yes, I would have respected the Netherlands' status as clear favorites instead of chasing a value bet based on a small sample size of momentum.",0.9,0,team_a_win,True,0.55,0.3041999999999999,0.5978370007556204,0.55,1.7272727272727273,3.8,4.75,0.55,0.25,0.2,36,0,team_a_win,25.0,-25.0,True,False,True,0.0099999999999999
gemini,m37,group,group,New Zealand,Egypt,1,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.15,0.28,0.57,team_b_win,100,"Egypt demonstrated strong tactical discipline and attacking threat in their 1-1 opening draw against group favorites Belgium, spearheaded by Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush. While New Zealand showed resilience in their 2-2 draw with Iran, their defensive vulnerabilities against pace leave them exposed in this matchup. Backing Egypt to win is the most logical choice given their superior roster quality and recent 1-0 victory over New Zealand in 2024.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, the decision to stake the maximum amount on Egypt was justified by their clear superiority in attacking quality and tactical matchups.",0.95,2,team_b_win,True,0.57,0.2858,0.5621189181535413,0.57,5.5,4.0,1.6,0.172,0.2366,0.5914,37,2,team_b_win,100.0,60.00000000000001,True,True,False,-0.0214
gemini,m38,group,group,Uruguay,Cabo Verde,2,2,draw,regulation,,0.7200000000000001,0.2,0.08,team_a_win,75,Uruguay possesses a significant talent advantage and dominated expected goals in their opening match despite a slow start. Their midfield physicality and superior set-piece execution should comfortably overpower Cape Verde's defensively oriented setup.,incorrect,False,neither,Cape Verde's counter-attacking efficiency and resilience in front of goal against top-tier opposition.,Uruguay's defensive solidity and ability to completely dictate the game state through midfield dominance.,"No, because backing a vastly superior team with a 72% expected win probability remains a mathematically sound decision despite the variance of a single match.",0.9,0,team_a_win,False,0.2,1.1647999999999998,1.6094379124341005,0.7200000000000001,1.4761904761904765,4.1,7.5,0.6423,0.2313,0.1264,38,0,team_a_win,75.0,-75.0,True,False,False,0.0777000000000001
gemini,m39,group,group,Belgium,IR Iran,0,0,draw,regulation,,0.68,0.21,0.11,team_a_win,100,"Belgium's 68% implied probability reflects their raw talent advantage, but their sluggish transition defense in the recent 1-1 draw against Egypt exposes vulnerabilities that Iran's Mehdi Taremi could easily exploit on the counter. Nevertheless, Romelu Lukaku's proven capacity to physically disrupt deep, disciplined defensive blocks provides the crucial edge required to shatter Iran's compact 4-5-1 formation. This distinct tactical mismatch in the final third justifies absorbing the heavily chalked moneyline risk, making a maximum stake on a Belgian victory the most analytically robust decision.",incorrect,False,neither,Iran's elite low-block organization and tactical discipline in completely denying central service.,Belgium's dynamic capacity to break down a packed defense purely through physical profiling and individual talent.,"Yes, I would select 'no_bet' because assigning a 68% win probability structurally overvalued Belgium's efficiency against ultra-compact, highly disciplined defensive structures.",0.95,0,team_a_win,False,0.21,1.0986000000000002,1.5606477482646683,0.68,1.434782608695652,4.6,7.5,0.6652,0.2075,0.1273,39,0,team_a_win,100.0,-100.0,True,False,False,0.0148
gemini,m40,group,group,Spain,Saudi Arabia,4,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.88,0.08,0.04,team_a_win,100,"Spain enters this Group H match as an overwhelming favorite, with prediction markets granting them roughly an 89 percent chance of victory. Their star-studded lineup features standout talents like Lamine Yamal and Rodri, presenting a stark mismatch against Saudi Arabia's less experienced squad. Staking the full budget on a Spain win is the most logical choice given the massive disparity in overall squad quality and tournament pedigree.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, placing the maximum stake on Spain to win perfectly reflected the reality of the massive mismatch in squad quality.",0.95,0,team_a_win,True,0.88,0.0224,0.1278333715098848,0.88,1.0909090909090908,12.0,21.0,0.875,0.0795,0.0455,40,0,team_a_win,100.0,9.090909090909085,True,True,False,0.005
gemini,m41,group,group,Jordan,Algeria,1,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.15,0.25,0.6,team_b_win,100,"Algeria possesses significantly more international pedigree and individual quality than a debuting Jordan squad. While both teams suffered defeats in their opening matches, Algeria's superior talent pool gives them a distinct edge in this high-pressure group stage clash. Given the must-win stakes for both nations, backing Algeria to secure the victory presents the most reliable betting angle.",correct,True,neither,"Jordan's attacking resilience, as they managed to score a goal despite being the weaker side.",none,"no, because the fundamental assessment of Algeria's superior quality resulting in a win proved perfectly accurate.",0.9,2,team_b_win,True,0.6,0.245,0.5108256237659907,0.6,5.5,4.1,1.5714285714285714,0.1712,0.2296,0.5992,41,2,team_b_win,100.0,57.14285714285714,True,True,False,0.0008
gemini,m42,group,group,Norway,Senegal,3,2,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.48,0.27,0.25,team_a_win,65,"Norway enters with profound momentum from a perfect qualifying run and a clinical 4-1 opening win over Iraq, efficiently leveraging a disciplined midfield to feed Erling Haaland's elite finishing. Senegal's defense, which recently conceded three goals to France, appears structurally vulnerable to this ruthless offensive profile and has suffered from inconsistent output overall. Taking Norway to win outright offers strong positive expected value given the substantial discrepancy in recent team form and tactical cohesion.",correct,True,neither,Senegal's offensive potency and ability to exploit Norway's defense to score two goals.,The assumption that Norway's disciplined midfield would easily dictate the tempo and completely neutralize Senegal's scoring opportunities.,"no, because taking a calculated stake on the favored team based on their elite offensive advantage proved to be a profitable and mathematically sound decision despite the close margin.",0.9,0,team_a_win,True,0.48,0.4058,0.7339691750802004,0.48,2.27,3.7,3.22,0.4313,0.2646,0.3041,42,0,team_a_win,65.0,82.55,True,True,False,0.0486999999999999
gemini,m43,group,group,France,Iraq,3,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.85,0.1,0.05,team_a_win,100,"France enters this match following a commanding 3-1 victory over Senegal, showcasing an elite attacking front led by Kylian Mbappé. Iraq recently suffered a 4-1 defeat to Norway, revealing defensive weaknesses that the French squad is well-equipped to exploit. Given France's motivation to seamlessly secure a knockout stage spot, a decisive win for Les Bleus is highly probable.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, maximizing the stake on a highly probable mismatch was the correct strategic decision.",0.95,0,team_a_win,True,0.85,0.035,0.1625189294977749,0.85,1.0833333333333333,11.0,26.0,0.8771,0.0864,0.0365,43,0,team_a_win,100.0,8.333333333333325,True,True,False,-0.0271
gemini,m44,group,group,Argentina,Austria,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.65,0.22,0.13,team_a_win,100,"Defending champions Argentina enter on an eight-match winning streak following a dominant 3-0 victory over Algeria, highlighted by Lionel Messi's hat-trick and a flawless defensive showing. While Austria also secured three points in their opener under Ralf Rangnick's high-pressing system, they conceded numerous chances to tournament debutants Jordan. Argentina's structural balance and elite ability to bypass the press make them clear favorites to secure all three points.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, placing the maximum stake on the heavy favorite with a clear tactical advantage was the correct mathematical and sports-betting decision.",0.95,0,team_a_win,True,0.65,0.1878,0.4307829160924542,0.65,1.4166666666666667,4.5,7.5,0.665,0.2094,0.1256,44,0,team_a_win,100.0,41.66666666666667,True,True,False,-0.015
gemini,m45,group,group,Colombia,Congo DR,1,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.62,0.26,0.12,team_a_win,100,"Colombia carries significant attacking momentum after a comfortable 3-1 opening victory over Uzbekistan, spearheaded by Luis Díaz and a highly fluid midfield. Although DR Congo demonstrated exceptional defensive organization during their surprising 1-1 draw with Portugal, Colombia's high-intensity pressing and superior technical quality give them the clear advantage. Expect Los Cafeteros to eventually break through the Leopards' resilient backline to secure early knockout qualification.",correct,True,neither,"The absolute extent of DR Congo's defensive effectiveness, which restricted Colombia to a much narrower margin of victory than anticipated.","Colombia's attacking fluidity and goal-scoring momentum, as they were ultimately limited to a single goal.","no, because the core prediction that Colombia's technical superiority would eventually secure a win was validated.",0.9,0,team_a_win,True,0.62,0.2264,0.4780358009429998,0.62,1.5128205128205128,4.2,7.0,0.6344,0.2285,0.1371,45,0,team_a_win,100.0,51.28205128205128,True,True,False,-0.0143999999999999
gemini,m46,group,group,Panama,Croatia,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.12,0.23,0.65,team_b_win,80,"Although Croatia's defensive vulnerabilities were heavily exploited in their 4-2 opening defeat to England, their midfield orchestration remains technically vastly superior to Panama's tactical setup. Panama demonstrated disciplined pressing in their late 1-0 loss to Ghana, but their persistent inability to convert defensive solidity into meaningful final-third scoring chances significantly limits their upset potential. Given both teams' desperation for points to avoid group-stage elimination, backing a Croatian victory exploits the stark disparity in squad depth and elite tournament pedigree.",correct,True,neither,"The extreme effectiveness of Panama's low block in neutralizing Croatia's final-third entries, limiting the result to a very narrow margin.","Croatia's expected offensive conversion capability, which struggled to fully capitalize on their significant possession and midfield dominance.","no, betting on the technically superior side in a high-stakes scenario was probabilistically sound and yielded the correct outcome.",0.95,2,team_b_win,True,0.65,0.1897999999999999,0.4307829160924542,0.65,7.0,4.0,1.5,0.1348,0.236,0.6292,46,2,team_b_win,80.0,40.0,True,True,False,0.0208
gemini,m47,group,group,England,Ghana,0,0,draw,regulation,,0.68,0.21,0.11,team_a_win,100,"England enters the match with significant personnel advantages and remains historically unbeaten against African opponents at the World Cup. While Ghana can be resilient in group stages, England's superior squad depth and tactical dominance make a full-stake bet on an English victory highly logical.",incorrect,False,neither,The tactical discipline of Ghana's low-block defense and their physical capacity to disrupt attacking rhythm in a high-stakes tournament setting.,England's superior on-paper squad depth and the assumption that elite offensive talent inevitably overcomes resilient defensive structures.,"yes, I would allocate only a partial stake instead of the full $100 budget, recognizing that a 68% win probability does not justify maximum exposure.",0.9,0,team_a_win,False,0.21,1.0986000000000002,1.5606477482646683,0.68,1.2222222222222223,6.5,15.0,0.7877,0.1481,0.0642,47,0,team_a_win,100.0,-100.0,True,False,False,-0.1076999999999999
gemini,m48,group,group,Portugal,Uzbekistan,5,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.78,0.16,0.06,no_bet,0,"Despite Portugal's significant talent advantage, their heavily juiced moneyline odds (-550) carry an implied probability of over 84%, which offers negative expected value. Portugal demonstrated severe structural attacking issues against DR Congo by producing just 0.65 xG, and Uzbekistan's anticipated low block will present similar stylistic hurdles. Because the true probability of a Portuguese victory sits closer to 78%, passing on this specific market is the most mathematically sound decision.",partially_correct,False,neither,Portugal's attacking quality and finishing variance positively correcting after a poor showing in their previous match.,The structural similarity between DR Congo's and Uzbekistan's low blocks and their ability to successfully stifle Portugal's attackers.,"yes, I would have considered placing a bet on Portugal to cover a handicap spread instead of completely passing on the match due to moneyline juice.",0.85,0,team_a_win,True,0.78,0.0776,0.2484613592984996,0.78,1.2,7.0,12.0,0.7865,0.1348,0.0787,48,0,team_a_win,0.0,0.0,False,,,
gemini,m49,group,group,South Africa,Korea Republic,1,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.15,0.25,0.6,team_b_win,100,"South Korea needs only a draw to advance to the knockout stages and possesses superior attacking quality, while South Africa is under immense pressure in a must-win situation. Furthermore, South Africa has failed to score from open play in the tournament and will be severely weakened by the suspensions of key playmakers Teboho Mokoena and Themba Zwane.",incorrect,False,neither,The psychological motivation and focused intensity of South Africa playing in an absolute must-win scenario.,The negative impact of South Africa's missing players and South Korea's perceived attacking superiority.,"yes, I would avoid betting the maximum stake on a team that only needs a draw, as that scenario often breeds complacency and invites upsets.",0.9,2,team_b_win,False,0.15,1.145,1.8971199848858813,0.6,5.75,3.9,1.6,0.1648,0.243,0.5922,49,2,team_b_win,100.0,-100.0,True,False,False,0.0078
gemini,m50,group,group,Czechia,Mexico,0,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.25,0.32,0.43,draw,40,"Mexico has already clinched Group A and manager Javier Aguirre is expected to heavily rotate the squad, minimizing their attacking urgency. Czechia desperately needs a result but has been offensively lackluster this tournament, averaging under 0.5 expected goals (xG) from open play. Backing a low-scoring draw offers strong value, as Mexico's defense has yet to concede and will likely stifle a struggling Czech attack without overextending themselves offensively.",incorrect,False,neither,Mexico's attacking depth and the motivation of rotational players trying to impress the manager in a home tournament,The negative impact of squad rotation on Mexico's offensive output after already clinching the group,"yes, I would place less weight on group-clinching rotation as a dampener for highly motivated home teams with deep squads.",0.9,2,team_b_win,True,0.43,0.4898,0.843970070294529,0.43,3.6,4.0,1.9090909090909087,0.2642,0.2377,0.4981,50,2,team_b_win,40.0,-40.0,True,False,True,0.0823
gemini,m51,group,group,Morocco,Haiti,4,2,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.78,0.15,0.07,team_a_win,100,"Morocco’s tactical discipline and dominant possession metrics—completing over 600 passes in their previous match against Scotland—present an insurmountable challenge for a defensively vulnerable, already-eliminated Haiti. Furthermore, with Morocco needing a decisive victory to potentially edge out Brazil on goal difference for the top spot in Group C, the Atlas Lions are highly incentivized to press relentlessly rather than rotate heavily. Consequently, deploying a maximum stake on a Moroccan win is the most analytically sound approach despite the heavily skewed odds.",correct,True,neither,Morocco's defensive vulnerability when overextending to maximize goal difference.,Morocco's structural defensive discipline holding Haiti's attack in check.,"No, because Morocco ultimately secured the outright victory as expected, justifying the maximum stake despite the unexpectedly high-scoring nature of the match.",0.95,0,team_a_win,True,0.78,0.0757999999999999,0.2484613592984996,0.78,1.1666666666666667,7.5,15.0,0.8108,0.1261,0.0631,51,0,team_a_win,100.0,16.666666666666675,True,True,False,-0.0307999999999999
gemini,m52,group,group,Scotland,Brazil,0,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.12,0.17,0.71,team_b_win,100,"Brazil's overwhelming technical superiority, bolstered by Vinicius Junior and the potential return of Neymar, gives them a massive edge over a Scotland side struggling for attacking creativity. Furthermore, the extreme 85-degree Miami heat will likely exhaust the Scottish squad, strongly favoring the South Americans' natural playing tempo. Given Brazil's motivation to secure the top spot in Group C, a full-stake bet on their victory offers the most reliable and analytically sound value.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, placing the maximum stake on Brazil was the optimal strategy given their clear superiority.",0.95,2,team_b_win,True,0.71,0.1274,0.342490308946776,0.71,8.0,5.0,1.3636363636363638,0.1181,0.189,0.6929,52,2,team_b_win,100.0,36.36363636363637,True,True,False,0.0171
gemini,m53,group,group,Bosnia and Herzegovina,Qatar,3,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.6900000000000001,0.18,0.13,team_a_win,100,"Bosnia and Herzegovina enter this crucial Group B finale as heavy favorites against a struggling Qatari side that just suffered a 6-0 defeat to Canada. Qatar's defense is severely compromised, a situation worsened by the suspensions of defender Homam Ahmed and midfielder Assim Madibo following recent red cards. With both teams needing a win to potentially advance as a top third-place finisher, Bosnia's superior overall quality and desperation make them the most logical pick.",correct,True,neither,I slightly underweighted Qatar's ability to score a goal despite their defensive crisis and previous heavy defeat.,none,"no, betting the maximum stake on the clear favorite was the optimal decision given the disparity in team quality.",0.9,0,team_a_win,True,0.6900000000000001,0.1453999999999999,0.3710636813908319,0.6900000000000001,1.4444444444444444,5.0,6.25,0.6579,0.1901,0.152,53,0,team_a_win,100.0,44.44444444444444,True,True,False,0.0321
gemini,m54,group,group,Switzerland,Canada,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.28,0.44,0.28,draw,100,"Game theory strongly points to a tactical stalemate, as both teams enter the match on four points and require only a draw to mathematically guarantee progression from Group B. While Canada boasts significant momentum from a recent 6-0 thrashing of Qatar and enjoys the atmospheric advantage of BC Place, Switzerland’s disciplined structure will likely avoid overcommitting. The mutual incentive to minimize injury risk and efficiently secure knockout stage berths creates maximum value on the draw.",incorrect,False,neither,"Switzerland's superior individual quality in the final third, which allowed them to secure a win rather than settling for a point.",The game theory assumption that mutual progression incentives would strictly result in a tactical stalemate.,"yes, I would place a smaller stake or avoid the draw bet altogether, realizing that competitive instinct often overrides mathematical game theory.",0.9,1,draw,False,0.28,0.7904,1.272965675812887,0.44,2.3,3.2,3.3,0.414,0.2975,0.2885,54,0,team_a_win,100.0,-100.0,True,False,True,0.1425
gemini,m55,group,group,Curaçao,Côte d'Ivoire,0,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.05,0.15,0.8,team_b_win,100,"Côte d'Ivoire boasts a vastly superior squad with players active in elite European leagues, making them overwhelming favorites against tournament debutants Curaçao. Furthermore, Curaçao's defensive fragilities were starkly exposed during an earlier 7-1 loss to Germany, suggesting they lack the tactical resilience to withstand a motivated Ivorian attack. Allocating the maximum stake on a Côte d'Ivoire victory represents the most logical value in this matchup.",correct,True,neither,none,"the severity of Curaçao's defensive fragility, as they conceded only two goals rather than suffering another massive blowout","no, the fundamental analysis of the talent disparity was accurate and maximizing the stake on the heavy favorite was the optimal decision.",0.95,2,team_b_win,True,0.8,0.0649999999999999,0.2231435513142097,0.8,18.0,8.0,1.1428571428571428,0.0526,0.1184,0.8289,55,2,team_b_win,100.0,14.28571428571428,True,True,False,-0.0288999999999999
gemini,m56,group,group,Ecuador,Germany,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.12,0.23,0.65,team_b_win,80,"Germany has dominated Group E, securing six points and scoring nine goals in two matches, while Ecuador has struggled offensively with only one point so far. Even with potential German squad rotation and Nico Schlotterbeck's absence, Ecuador's poor form—highlighted by a scoreless draw against Curacao—makes a German victory highly probable.",incorrect,False,neither,The extreme negative impact of Germany's squad rotation and Ecuador's high motivation to secure a must-win result.,Germany's dominant offensive form in their previous two group stage matches.,"yes, I would place a smaller stake or avoid betting entirely given the unpredictable nature of heavily rotated squads in final group games.",0.9,2,team_b_win,False,0.12,1.2498,2.120263536200091,0.65,3.5,4.0,1.95,0.2725,0.2384,0.4891,56,2,team_b_win,80.0,-80.0,True,False,False,0.1609
gemini,m57,group,group,Japan,Sweden,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.48,0.28,0.24,team_a_win,75,"Japan enters the match in excellent form with a +4 goal differential, having held the Netherlands to a 2-2 draw and defeated Tunisia 4-0. Sweden's defense showed significant vulnerabilities in their recent 5-1 defeat to the Dutch, which Japan's disciplined attack is well-positioned to exploit. Backing a Japan victory provides strong value as they attempt to secure the top seed in Group F.",incorrect,True,neither,"Sweden's ability to swiftly implement a rigid, risk-averse defensive low block to pragmatically overcorrect for their previous defensive collapse.","Japan's offensive momentum and high goal differential, which falsely signaled a guaranteed ability to break down highly organized, static defenses.","yes, I would have utilized a Draw No Bet or significantly reduced the stake, factoring in the predictable tactical pragmatism of a strong team recovering from a blowout.",0.9,0,team_a_win,False,0.28,0.8063999999999999,1.272965675812887,0.48,2.0,3.3,3.9,0.4719,0.286,0.242,57,0,team_a_win,75.0,-75.0,True,False,False,0.0080999999999999
gemini,m58,group,group,Tunisia,Netherlands,1,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.04,0.08,0.88,team_b_win,100,"The Netherlands have been highly impressive in Group F, netting five goals against Sweden and seeking a high margin of victory to top the group on goal difference. Conversely, Tunisia is already mathematically eliminated after a disastrous campaign, having conceded nine goals across two hefty defeats. This vast disparity in form and motivation makes a commanding Dutch victory the most logical outcome.",correct,True,neither,Tunisia's capacity to find the back of the net for a consolation goal against a superior opponent.,The Netherlands' drive to run up an exorbitant scoreline for goal difference purposes.,"no, the maximum stake on the Netherlands to win was entirely justified by the significant gap in team quality and the final 3-1 result.",0.95,2,team_b_win,True,0.88,0.0224,0.1278333715098848,0.88,25.0,11.11,1.1364256480218282,0.0396,0.0891,0.8713,58,2,team_b_win,100.0,13.642564802182822,True,True,False,0.0087
gemini,m59,group,group,Türkiye,USA,3,2,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.23,0.25,0.52,team_b_win,100,"The United States enters this match in stellar form on home soil, having dominated Group D with two consecutive wins and a combined 6-1 scoreline against Paraguay and Australia. Conversely, Türkiye has significantly underperformed, losing both of their opening matches without registering a single goal. While the USMNT has already secured advancement and may strategically rotate some starters, their significant depth, home-field advantage, and tactical momentum make them a confident value pick.",incorrect,False,unlucky,The severity of the drop-off in the USMNT's defensive cohesion due to rotating their starting lineup after already advancing.,The United States' previous group stage form and their perceived tactical momentum on home soil.,"yes, I would have reduced the stake or passed on the bet entirely given the high unpredictability of a team resting players in a dead-rubber match.",0.9,2,team_b_win,False,0.23,0.9258,1.4696759700589417,0.52,3.9,4.2,1.8,0.2442,0.2267,0.5291,59,2,team_b_win,100.0,-100.0,True,False,False,-0.0090999999999999
gemini,m60,group,group,Paraguay,Australia,0,0,draw,regulation,,0.25,0.45,0.3,draw,50,"Australia needs only a draw to secure second place in Group D and advance, incentivizing a conservative, defense-first setup. Meanwhile, Paraguay requires a win to leapfrog them but will severely lack attacking spark without their suspended key playmaker Miguel Almirón. This tactical dynamic heavily favors a low-scoring, cagey stalemate.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, the pre-match logic of a cagey stalemate perfectly aligned with the actual 0-0 result.",0.95,1,draw,True,0.45,0.455,0.7985076962177716,0.45,2.875,2.15,3.9,0.3253,0.435,0.2398,60,1,draw,50.0,57.49999999999999,True,True,False,0.015
gemini,m61,group,group,New Zealand,Belgium,1,5,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.08,0.17,0.75,team_b_win,100,"Despite an underwhelming group stage performance thus far, Belgium's squad possesses vastly superior depth and quality compared to the 85th-ranked New Zealand. Facing immense pressure to advance, a highly motivated Belgian side should overcome their offensive struggles to secure the necessary three points. The stark talent gap makes backing the Red Devils the most logical and secure choice.",correct,True,neither,none,"Belgium's previous offensive struggles, which proved completely irrelevant given their five-goal explosion.","no, maximizing the stake on a heavily favored team in a must-win scenario was completely validated by the dominant victory.",0.95,2,team_b_win,True,0.75,0.0978,0.2876820724517809,0.75,14.0,8.0,1.1798561151079137,0.0684,0.1197,0.8118,61,2,team_b_win,100.0,17.985611510791365,True,True,False,-0.0617999999999999
gemini,m62,group,group,Egypt,IR Iran,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.45,0.3,0.25,team_a_win,50,"Egypt currently leads Group G with 4 points after an impressive victory over seeded Belgium, showcasing strong tactical execution. Iran has drawn both of their previous matches, demonstrating defensive resilience but struggling to secure decisive goals. Given Egypt's momentum and their motivation to clinch the top spot in the group, they hold a clear competitive advantage going into this fixture.",incorrect,True,neither,"The structural rigidity of Iran's defensive block, consistently achieving a tournament-specific tactical goal of drawing matches.",Egypt's psychological momentum and the assumption that their attacking intent would inevitably overcome a passive defense.,"yes, recognizing Iran's established baseline of securing consecutive draws makes betting on the draw the highest-value probabilistic play.",0.85,0,team_a_win,False,0.3,0.7549999999999999,1.203972804325936,0.45,2.45,2.75,3.3,0.3797,0.3383,0.2819,62,0,team_a_win,50.0,-50.0,True,False,False,0.0703
gemini,m63,group,group,Cabo Verde,Saudi Arabia,0,0,draw,regulation,,0.45,0.3,0.25,team_a_win,50,"Cabo Verde has shown exceptional resilience in Group H of the 2026 World Cup, securing hard-fought draws against highly-ranked Spain (0-0) and Uruguay (2-2). Facing Saudi Arabia presents a much more balanced matchup where Cabo Verde's momentum and defensive solidity give them a distinct edge. A $50 stake on Cabo Verde to win offers strong value given their proven ability to perform on the global stage.",incorrect,False,neither,The high probability of a stalemate when a defensive-minded team is forced to dictate play and break down a cautious opponent.,Cabo Verde's momentum and the belief that their resilience against top-tier teams would easily translate into a win against Saudi Arabia.,"yes, I would have picked the draw or chosen no_bet given both teams' lack of elite attacking firepower.",0.9,0,team_a_win,False,0.3,0.7549999999999999,1.203972804325936,0.45,2.45,3.5,2.75,0.386,0.2702,0.3439,63,0,team_a_win,50.0,-50.0,True,False,False,0.064
gemini,m64,group,group,Uruguay,Spain,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.28,0.31,0.41,team_b_win,50,"Spain currently tops Group H and only needs a draw to secure the top spot, allowing them to dictate the game's tempo with their possession-based style. Uruguay has only two points and must push for a win to guarantee their progression, which could leave them exposed to Spain's precise counter-attacks. Given Spain's tactical discipline and superior depth under Luis de la Fuente, they offer strong value to exploit Uruguay's desperation.",correct,True,neither,"Spain's exceptional defensive solidity, which completely neutralized Uruguay's desperate attacking efforts.","The likelihood of a draw, as I slightly overestimated Uruguay's ability to stay organized while chasing the game.","no, the stake on Spain was a well-calculated risk that played out exactly according to the anticipated tactical script.",0.9,2,team_b_win,True,0.41,0.5226000000000001,0.8915981192837836,0.41,7.0,4.1,1.5,0.1356,0.2315,0.6329,64,2,team_b_win,50.0,25.0,True,True,False,-0.2229
gemini,m65,group,group,Senegal,Iraq,5,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.78,0.15,0.07,team_a_win,100,"Senegal is heavily motivated to secure a large-margin victory to qualify for the knockouts, facing an already eliminated Iraq side struggling with injuries, including to key striker Aymen Hussein. Iraq's recent lack of offensive output, having failed to register a shot on target against France, leaves them highly vulnerable to a shift toward an aggressive 4-3-3 formation by the Lions of Teranga. Given these stark motivational and tactical disparities, a maximum stake on a Senegal victory represents the most statistically sound virtual bet.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, maximizing the stake on Senegal was the correct strategic decision given their overwhelming motivation and the resulting blowout.",0.95,0,team_a_win,True,0.78,0.0757999999999999,0.2484613592984996,0.78,1.2222222222222223,6.5,12.0,0.7753,0.1458,0.079,65,0,team_a_win,100.0,22.222222222222232,True,True,False,0.0047
gemini,m66,group,group,Norway,France,1,4,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.15,0.22,0.63,team_b_win,100,"France possesses exceptional squad depth, tactical versatility, and proven tournament pedigree on the world stage. While Norway features elite individual attackers like Erling Haaland, France's comprehensive midfield dominance and superior defensive organization make them clear favorites to secure three points.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, placing the maximum stake on France was the correct strategy given their evident structural and tactical superiority.",0.95,2,team_b_win,True,0.63,0.2077999999999999,0.4620354595965587,0.63,4.5,4.5,1.65,0.2115,0.2115,0.5769,66,2,team_b_win,100.0,64.99999999999999,True,True,False,0.0531
gemini,m67,group,group,Algeria,Austria,3,3,draw,regulation,,0.28,0.34,0.38,draw,50,"With both teams tied on three points in Group J, Austria only needs a draw to advance due to their superior goal difference, making a conservative, defensive strategy highly probable. Traditional sportsbooks reflect this cagey dynamic, pricing a draw as the most likely outcome at +125. Given Austria's structural solidity and their strategic incentive to simply avoid defeat, backing the draw provides the most logical betting value.",correct,True,lucky,The offensive openness and defensive vulnerabilities of both teams that turned a predicted cagey affair into a 3-3 shootout.,"Austria's structural solidity and their presumed ability to enforce a low-scoring, conservative game.","no, the strategic incentive for a draw ultimately held true to secure Austria's advancement, justifying the original bet.",0.95,2,team_b_win,False,0.34,0.6583999999999999,1.0788096613719298,0.38,3.8,2.3,2.8,0.2494,0.4121,0.3385,67,1,draw,50.0,64.99999999999999,True,True,False,-0.0721
gemini,m68,group,group,Jordan,Argentina,1,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.01,0.04,0.95,team_b_win,100,"Argentina's structural dominance and vast squad depth present an insurmountable tactical mismatch against a Jordanian side that has already conceded five goals and struggled to defend wide areas. Even with potential rotational changes from Lionel Scaloni, the reigning champions' ability to consistently exploit defensive gaps warrants maximum confidence. Allocating the full stake to Argentina minimizes variance in a highly lopsided encounter.",correct,True,neither,Jordan's ability to capitalize on a defensive lapse or counter-attack to secure a consolation goal.,none,"no, allocating the maximum stake on such a highly probable outcome was the optimal betting strategy.",0.95,2,team_b_win,True,0.95,0.0042,0.0512932943875505,0.95,16.67,9.09,1.1628664495114007,0.0582,0.1068,0.8349,68,2,team_b_win,100.0,16.286644951140072,True,True,False,0.1150999999999999
gemini,m69,group,group,Colombia,Portugal,0,0,draw,regulation,,0.25,0.32,0.43,team_b_win,55,"Colombia has already secured knockout qualification with six points and faces a strong game-theory incentive to rotate their starting XI to mitigate injury and fatigue risks. Portugal carries high offensive momentum after a 5-0 demolition of Uzbekistan and holds the structural motivation advantage, as they strictly require a victory to usurp Colombia for the top seed in Group K.",incorrect,True,neither,"The structural advantage of playing for a draw; Colombia's rotated squad likely prioritized a rigid defensive shape over possession, making Portugal's necessity to win a tactical handicap.","The predictive weight of Portugal's previous 5-0 victory, failing to account for the non-linear translation of offensive momentum against an opponent satisfied with a stalemate.","yes, I would have opted for 'no_bet' or backed the draw, recognizing that betting against a competent team actively playing for a 0-0 is mathematically disadvantageous.",0.85,2,team_b_win,False,0.32,0.7097999999999999,1.1394342831883648,0.43,4.220000000000001,3.8,1.869565217391304,0.229,0.2543,0.5168,69,2,team_b_win,55.0,-55.0,True,False,False,-0.0868
gemini,m70,group,group,Congo DR,Uzbekistan,3,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.58,0.25,0.17,team_a_win,100,"DR Congo enters this must-win Group K finale with a resilient defense, having conceded just two goals against formidable opponents like Colombia and Portugal. In contrast, debutants Uzbekistan have struggled immensely to adapt, sitting on zero points with a -8 goal differential following back-to-back heavy defeats. Given DR Congo's pressing need for a victory to sustain their knockout stage hopes and Uzbekistan's proven vulnerabilities at the back, backing the African side provides the strongest tactical value.",correct,True,neither,Uzbekistan's capability to breach the Congolese defense despite their overall poor tournament form.,The absolute defensive clean-sheet reliability of DR Congo under qualification pressure.,"no, because the fundamental gap in motivation and quality cleanly manifested in a decisive multi-goal victory for DR Congo.",0.95,0,team_a_win,True,0.58,0.2678,0.5447271754416722,0.58,1.7407407407407407,4.2,4.3,0.5497,0.2278,0.2225,70,0,team_a_win,100.0,74.07407407407408,True,True,False,0.0302999999999999
gemini,m71,group,group,Croatia,Ghana,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.4,0.45,0.15,draw,100,"Ghana's disciplined low block under Carlos Queiroz has yielded consecutive clean sheets, and a draw practically guarantees their progression to the Round of 32. Croatia's aging squad has struggled creatively against compact defenses, and since an additional point will likely suffice for them to advance as well, a mutually beneficial stalemate is highly probable.",incorrect,False,neither,Croatia's ability to break down a compact defense despite their aging squad.,The assumption that both teams would play passively for a mutually beneficial draw.,"yes, I would have lowered my stake, acknowledging that a 40% win probability for Croatia was too high to justify a maximum $100 bet on the draw.",0.9,1,draw,False,0.4,0.585,0.916290731874155,0.45,1.7518796992481205,3.18,5.2,0.5297,0.2918,0.1785,71,0,team_a_win,100.0,-100.0,True,False,True,0.1582
gemini,m72,group,group,Panama,England,0,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.06,0.11,0.83,team_b_win,100,"England is overwhelmingly favored against an already eliminated Panama squad that has failed to score in their two previous Group L matches. While Panama has shown defensive resilience by conceding only narrow margins, the absence of their central playmaker Adalberto Carrasquilla severely limits their ability to break lines and generate counter-attacks. With England highly motivated to solidify their top group position and boasting a massive depth advantage under Thomas Tuchel, an English victory is the most mathematically sound outcome.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, the fundamental mismatch in squad depth and motivation entirely justified the maximum stake on an England win.",0.95,2,team_b_win,True,0.83,0.0446,0.1863295781914934,0.83,13.0,8.0,1.1666666666666667,0.0726,0.118,0.8093,72,2,team_b_win,100.0,16.666666666666675,True,True,False,0.0206999999999999
gemini,m73,knockout,round_of_32,South Africa,Canada,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.22,0.26,0.52,team_b_win,100,"Canada possesses superior attacking firepower through Jonathan David and Alphonso Davies, providing the elite wide overloads needed to break down South Africa's disciplined defensive block. Although South Africa's resilient midfield will undoubtedly frustrate the Canadians early on, Canada's overwhelming pace and top-flight European experience offer a decisive tactical edge. Committing the full budget to a Canadian victory in regular time represents the most calculated value based on current tournament form.",correct,True,neither,"The absolute rigidity of South Africa's low block, which made the match closer than my high confidence and $100 stake implied.","Canada's overwhelming attacking firepower, as they were ultimately restricted to a single goal.","No, because the fundamental analysis of Canada's superior quality eventually finding a breakthrough proved accurate.",0.9,2,team_b_win,True,0.52,0.3464,0.6539264674066639,0.52,5.0,3.55,1.77,0.1911,0.2691,0.5398,73,2,team_b_win,100.0,77.0,True,True,False,-0.0197999999999999
gemini,m74,knockout,round_of_32,Germany,Paraguay,1,1,draw,penalties,team_b,0.78,0.15,0.07,team_a_win,100,"Germany showcased overwhelming offensive capacity in Group E with 10 goals, driven by dynamic transitions, even though a minor lapse against Ecuador exposed temporary defensive vulnerability. In contrast, Paraguay barely advanced from Group D with a negative goal differential, managing only a sluggish 1-0 win and a scoreless draw against moderate competition. The drastic mismatch in tactical intensity and final-third execution makes a full-stake position on Germany a mathematically sound strategy.",incorrect,False,unlucky,"Paraguay's defensive resilience and deliberate tactical shift to force a low-tempo, grinding match aiming precisely for a penalty shootout.","Germany's group-stage goal-scoring metrics, which artificially inflated expectations of their ability to easily break down a deep defensive block.","yes, I would allocate more probability to a draw and decrease my stake, acknowledging the inherent variance of knockout football against a defensively stubborn opponent.",0.85,0,team_a_win,False,0.15,1.3358,1.8971199848858813,0.78,1.38,5.0,8.5,0.6952,0.1919,0.1129,74,0,team_a_win,100.0,-100.0,True,False,False,0.0847999999999999
gemini,m75,knockout,round_of_32,Netherlands,Morocco,1,1,draw,penalties,team_b,0.58,0.24,0.18,team_a_win,80,"The Netherlands have demonstrated lethal efficiency under Ronald Koeman, topping Group F with 10 goals and extending a 15-match World Cup unbeaten streak. While Morocco's tactical resilience secured an impressive draw against Brazil and a 4-2 win over Haiti, the Dutch squad's superior offensive depth and defensive stability present a decisive structural mismatch in regulation time.",incorrect,False,neither,I underweighted Morocco's proven tactical blueprint of absorbing pressure and dragging heavily favored offensive teams into penalty shootouts during knockout stages.,I overweighted the Netherlands' offensive efficiency and assumed it would cleanly translate into a regulation victory against a world-class defensive block.,"yes, I would have placed a smaller stake on the draw or avoided the 3-way moneyline entirely, recognizing the high probability of a grueling stalemate.",0.9,0,team_a_win,False,0.24,0.9464,1.4271163556401458,0.58,2.15,3.3,3.6,0.4447,0.2897,0.2656,75,0,team_a_win,80.0,-80.0,True,False,False,0.1352999999999999
gemini,m76,knockout,round_of_32,Brazil,Japan,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.5,0.3,0.2,draw,50,"While public consensus heavily favors Brazil, Japan proved their capability by defeating the Seleção 3-2 in an October 2025 friendly and emerging unbeaten from Group F. Under Carlo Ancelotti, Brazil is formidable but may face significant resistance breaking down Japan's disciplined defensive structure in a high-stakes knockout environment. A strategic bet on a regulation draw offers strong analytical value given Japan's tactical resilience.",incorrect,True,neither,Brazil's elite attacking depth and sheer individual talent capable of eventually overcoming a disciplined low block.,The predictive value of Japan's recent friendly victory over Brazil when transitioning to a high-stakes World Cup knockout environment.,"yes, I would have placed my stake on the Brazil win, trusting my own highest probability model rather than seeking betting value on a draw.",0.9,0,team_a_win,True,0.5,0.38,0.6931471805599453,0.5,1.74,3.8,4.9,0.5516,0.2526,0.1959,76,0,team_a_win,50.0,-50.0,True,False,True,0.0474
gemini,m77,knockout,round_of_32,Mexico,Ecuador,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.45,0.32,0.23,team_a_win,100,"Mexico holds a massive home-field advantage playing at the Mexico City Stadium and enters the Round of 32 after a flawless group stage, winning all three matches without conceding a goal. Although Ecuador boasts high-end talent and carries momentum from a crucial victory over Germany, Mexico's cohesive defense and high-altitude conditioning give them a distinct edge. Backing Mexico to win in regulation offers solid tactical value given their dominant recent form and favorable environmental factors.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, because Mexico's execution perfectly validated the heavy emphasis placed on their altitude advantage and defensive stability at home.",0.95,0,team_a_win,True,0.45,0.4578,0.7985076962177716,0.45,2.25,2.8,4.0,0.4226,0.3396,0.2377,77,0,team_a_win,100.0,125.0,True,True,False,0.0274
gemini,m78,knockout,round_of_32,France,Sweden,3,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.7200000000000001,0.19,0.09,team_a_win,100,"France enters the Round of 32 in formidable form, having swept their group with three commanding wins and ten goals scored. Sweden, by contrast, struggled through Group F with only four points and advanced as a third-placed side, carrying a vulnerable defense that conceded seven goals. The glaring gap in sheer attacking firepower and tournament momentum makes a full-time victory for France the most analytically sound position.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, the maximum $100 bet on France was entirely justified by their statistical superiority and validated by the decisive 3-0 result.",0.95,0,team_a_win,True,0.7200000000000001,0.1225999999999999,0.3285040669720359,0.7200000000000001,1.3,5.75,10.0,0.7374,0.1667,0.0959,78,0,team_a_win,100.0,30.000000000000004,True,True,False,-0.0173999999999999
gemini,m79,knockout,round_of_32,Côte d'Ivoire,Norway,1,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.3,0.28,0.42,team_b_win,50,"Norway brings immense attacking firepower with Erling Haaland leading the line, though their defense showed vulnerabilities in a recent 4-1 loss to France. Ivory Coast boasts a structured and resilient defense that could frustrate the Norwegians, making this a closely contested matchup. Ultimately, Norway's overall offensive quality and star power give them a slight edge to secure a victory in regular time.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, because my assessment of Norway's attacking superiority ultimately determining a closely contested match proved accurate.",0.9,2,team_b_win,True,0.42,0.5048000000000001,0.8675005677047231,0.42,3.65,3.5,2.05,0.2616,0.2728,0.4657,79,2,team_b_win,50.0,52.49999999999999,True,True,False,-0.0457
gemini,m80,knockout,round_of_32,USA,Bosnia and Herzegovina,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.7100000000000001,0.2,0.09,team_a_win,100,"The USMNT holds significant statistical and situational advantages, generating 4.62 expected goals (xG) across the group stage while benefiting from home-field advantage in Santa Clara. Conversely, Bosnia and Herzegovina massively overperformed their underlying metrics by scoring five goals from a meager 1.87 xG, making regression highly likely against a superior opponent. Given Bosnia's defensive struggles and the return of a healthy Christian Pulisic, the United States is strongly positioned to secure a victory in regulation.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, because the pre-match expected goals (xG) data and home-field advantage overwhelmingly justified a high-confidence bet on a USMNT victory in regulation.",0.9,0,team_a_win,True,0.7100000000000001,0.1321999999999999,0.3424903089467758,0.7100000000000001,1.44,4.6,7.5,0.6644,0.208,0.1276,80,0,team_a_win,100.0,43.99999999999999,True,True,False,0.0456
gemini,m81,knockout,round_of_32,Belgium,Senegal,3,2,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.4,0.28,0.32,team_b_win,50,"Belgium's group stage performances were surprisingly sluggish, relying heavily on a single blowout against New Zealand to mask structural vulnerabilities against compact teams. Senegal's exceptional pace on the counter-attack, led by Ismaïla Sarr, matches up perfectly to exploit the Red Devils' aging defensive lines. Backing the Lions of Teranga to win in regulation offers excellent tactical value for this knockout fixture.",partially_correct,True,unlucky,Belgium's elite attacking depth and clinical finishing capacity to outscore opponents despite their defensive vulnerabilities.,The ability of Senegal's counter-attack to fully suppress Belgium's possession-based offensive pressure.,"No, because the tight 3-2 scoreline validates that Senegal possessed significant win equity, confirming the structural value of the underdog bet despite the losing outcome.",0.9,0,team_a_win,True,0.4,0.5408000000000001,0.916290731874155,0.4,2.15,3.2,3.7,0.4439,0.2982,0.2579,81,0,team_a_win,50.0,-50.0,True,False,True,0.0620999999999999
gemini,m82,knockout,round_of_32,England,Congo DR,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.76,0.16,0.08,team_a_win,100,"England boasts overwhelming attacking quality under Thomas Tuchel, led by Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham, and enters the match as heavy favorites. While DR Congo impressively reached the knockouts with a resilient comeback against Uzbekistan, their low-block defensive structure will be severely tested. This defensive approach will likely invite too much sustained pressure from England's superior offensive depth, leading to a comfortable win for the Three Lions.",correct,True,neither,DR Congo's offensive capability and resilience to score and keep the match highly competitive rather than succumbing to a comfortable defeat.,"The ease with which England's attacking depth would break down the opposition, leading me to expect a wider margin of victory.","no, betting the maximum stake on a heavy favorite with vastly superior squad depth was still the correct expected-value decision, regardless of the narrow scoreline.",0.9,0,team_a_win,True,0.76,0.0896,0.2744368457017603,0.76,1.27,5.75,13.0,0.7584,0.1675,0.0741,82,0,team_a_win,100.0,27.0,True,True,False,0.0016
gemini,m83,knockout,round_of_32,Switzerland,Algeria,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.48,0.28,0.24,team_a_win,50,"Switzerland enters the Round of 32 in excellent form after an unbeaten Group B campaign, led by standout young midfielder Johan Manzambi and experienced captain Granit Xhaka. Although Algeria's manager Vladimir Petkovic has deep knowledge of the Swiss squad, Algeria's defensive frailties—having conceded six goals in the group stage—make Switzerland the justified favorite to win in regulation.",correct,True,neither,none,"Algeria's attacking capabilities, as they were ultimately unable to breach the Swiss defense.","no, placing half my bankroll on Switzerland winning in regulation was a sound decision based on the clear defensive mismatch.",0.95,0,team_a_win,True,0.48,0.4064,0.7339691750802004,0.48,2.05,3.35,4.0,0.4707,0.288,0.2412,83,0,team_a_win,50.0,52.49999999999999,True,True,False,0.0092999999999999
gemini,m84,knockout,round_of_32,Portugal,Croatia,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.55,0.26,0.19,team_a_win,75,"Portugal enters as the favorite with a deep, potent attack capable of overwhelming a Croatian defense that showed vulnerabilities in the group stage. Although Croatia's experienced midfield will attempt to control the tempo, Portugal's superior overall squad quality and momentum make them the most logical choice for an outright victory in regular time.",correct,True,neither,"Croatia's offensive resilience and ability to score, which kept the match tighter than a comfortable multi-goal victory.",none,"no, the forecast correctly identified Portugal as the likely winner while acknowledging it would be a highly competitive match.",0.9,0,team_a_win,True,0.55,0.3061999999999999,0.5978370007556204,0.55,1.8,3.65,4.7,0.533,0.2629,0.2041,84,0,team_a_win,75.0,60.0,True,True,False,0.017
gemini,m85,knockout,round_of_32,Spain,Austria,3,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.65,0.22,0.13,team_a_win,80,"Spain's cohesive system has produced exceptional structural control, highlighted by clean sheets against Uruguay and Cabo Verde while heavily leveraging Lamine Yamal's offensive gravity. Conversely, Austria exhibits significant defensive fragility—conceding three goals against Algeria in their group finale—and faces compounding vulnerability with both David Alaba and Marko Arnautovic managing late injuries, making a dominant Spanish victory within 90 minutes highly probable.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, because an $80 stake appropriately maximized the expected value of Spain's expected dominance while protecting the remaining bankroll from unpredictable knockout variance.",0.95,0,team_a_win,True,0.65,0.1878,0.4307829160924542,0.65,1.31,5.25,10.5,0.7277,0.1816,0.0908,85,0,team_a_win,80.0,24.800000000000004,True,True,False,-0.0776999999999999
gemini,m86,knockout,round_of_32,Colombia,Ghana,1,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.62,0.25,0.13,team_a_win,100,"Under Néstor Lorenzo, Colombia enters the knockout stage in exceptional form, having topped Group K while conceding just a single goal. While Ghana has demonstrated formidable defensive organization under Carlos Queiroz—evidenced by their recent scoreless draw against England—Colombia's superior technical quality provides a distinct edge. I expect the South Americans to systematically break down Ghana's defensive low block and secure a definitive victory in normal time.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, because the match played out exactly as anticipated with Colombia's technical quality narrowly overcoming Ghana's resilient defense in normal time.",0.95,0,team_a_win,True,0.62,0.2238,0.4780358009429998,0.62,1.54,4.0,7.0,0.6231,0.2399,0.1371,86,0,team_a_win,100.0,54.0,True,True,False,-0.0030999999999999
gemini,m87,knockout,round_of_32,Argentina,Cabo Verde,3,2,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.88,0.09,0.03,team_a_win,100,"Argentina enters the Round of 32 as the heavily favored defending champions, boasting a flawless group stage with three decisive wins and a +7 goal differential. Cape Verde is a historic Cinderella team that advanced via three consecutive draws, but they lack the firepower and depth to challenge a top-tier opponent. Given the massive talent disparity, backing Argentina with maximum confidence is the optimal projection.",correct,False,lucky,Cape Verde's offensive capabilities and ability to capitalize on scoring chances against a top-tier defense.,"The sheer talent disparity, which led me to expect a comfortable blowout rather than a highly competitive 3-2 match.","No, betting on the heavy favorite to win outright was the correct process, even if the margin of victory was much narrower than anticipated.",0.95,0,team_a_win,True,0.88,0.0234,0.1278333715098848,0.88,1.15,8.5,20.0,0.8384,0.1134,0.0482,87,0,team_a_win,100.0,14.999999999999991,True,True,False,0.0415999999999999
gemini,m88,knockout,round_of_32,Australia,Egypt,1,1,draw,penalties,team_b,0.3,0.32,0.38,team_b_win,100,"Egypt enters the knockout stage undefeated, spearheaded by world-class attacking talents like Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush, contrasting with an Australian side that has struggled offensively with only two goals in the group stage. Predictive models and official match data consistently give Egypt the highest win probability (around 38%) in regulation time. Their ability to break down Australia's deep defensive block makes a victory for the Pharaohs the most analytically sound position.",partially_correct,True,unlucky,Australia's defensive resilience and capability to absorb pressure to force extra time in a knockout setting.,Egypt's clinical efficiency in breaking down a compact defensive low-block during regulation time.,"Yes, I would back 'draw' or choose a 'To Advance' market to safeguard against Australia's ability to stretch tight games into extra time.",0.95,2,team_b_win,False,0.32,0.6967999999999999,1.1394342831883648,0.38,3.3,2.9,2.5,0.2892,0.3291,0.3817,88,2,team_b_win,100.0,-100.0,True,False,False,-0.0016999999999999
gemini,m89,knockout,round_of_16,Paraguay,France,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.12,0.21,0.67,team_b_win,100,"France has dominated the tournament so far, effortlessly sweeping their group and dispatching Sweden 3-0 in the Round of 32. Meanwhile, Paraguay enters this match after a grueling penalty shootout victory following a 1-1 draw against Germany. The stark contrast in squad depth, attacking momentum, and overall fatigue heavily favors a regulation victory for the French side.",correct,True,neither,"Paraguay's defensive resilience and organization, which managed to restrict a highly potent French attack to just a single goal.","France's attacking momentum from previous rounds, which I assumed would easily overwhelm Paraguay and lead to a multi-goal victory.","no, betting on the heavy favorite with superior squad depth and less fatigue remains the optimal decision despite the unexpectedly narrow margin.",0.9,2,team_b_win,True,0.67,0.1673999999999999,0.4004775665971252,0.67,18.0,7.0,1.18,0.0531,0.1366,0.8103,89,2,team_b_win,100.0,17.999999999999993,True,True,False,-0.1402999999999999
gemini,m90,knockout,round_of_16,Canada,Morocco,0,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.32,0.31,0.37,team_b_win,100,"Canada brings significant momentum and a home-continent advantage to Houston after a dramatic stoppage-time victory over South Africa in the Round of 32. However, Morocco possesses superior overall squad quality and battle-tested resilience, having just eliminated a strong Netherlands side on penalty kicks. Expect Morocco's structural discipline and top-flight experience, led by Achraf Hakimi, to narrowly edge out the co-hosts in regular time.",correct,False,neither,The massive gap in tactical execution and attacking efficiency that allowed Morocco to win comfortably by three goals rather than narrowly.,Canada's home-continent advantage and momentum from the Round of 32.,"no, because betting on the Morocco win was the correct decision, though I would increase my perceived probability of that outcome",0.9,2,team_b_win,True,0.37,0.5954,0.9942522733438668,0.37,4.9,3.65,1.77,0.1957,0.2627,0.5417,90,2,team_b_win,100.0,77.0,True,True,False,-0.1716999999999999
gemini,m91,knockout,round_of_16,Mexico,England,2,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.4,0.32,0.28,team_a_win,100,"Mexico holds a decisive environmental advantage at the high-altitude Estadio Azteca, where they maintain a perfect tournament record without conceding a single goal. England labored against DR Congo in the previous round, and the 7,200-foot elevation will likely exacerbate fatigue, severely neutralizing their on-paper talent advantage. Backing Mexico provides the strongest structural value given their immense home crowd momentum and the extreme physiological toll these conditions will demand from the European squad.",incorrect,False,neither,England's offensive firepower and ability to execute tactically despite extreme physical duress.,The physiological toll of the high altitude and home crowd advantage at Estadio Azteca on the European squad.,"yes, I would have significantly reduced the stake rather than placing a maximum bet on an outcome with only a 40% predicted probability.",0.9,0,team_a_win,False,0.28,0.7807999999999999,1.272965675812887,0.4,3.45,3.2,2.25,0.2769,0.2985,0.4246,91,2,team_b_win,100.0,-100.0,True,False,True,0.1231
gemini,m92,knockout,round_of_16,Brazil,Norway,1,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.536,0.24,0.224,team_a_win,100,"Despite Norway's historical unbeaten record against the Seleção, Brazil boasts a formidable squad with superior defensive stability under Carlo Ancelotti. Predictive models favor Brazil with an approximate 53.6% chance of winning in regulation against a Norwegian defense that has yet to keep a clean sheet this tournament.",incorrect,False,neither,The persistence of Norway's historical unbeaten record against Brazil and their ability to exploit defensive transitions.,Brazil's perceived defensive stability and overall squad superiority.,"yes, I would have reduced the stake to account for the historical matchup difficulties Brazil consistently faces against Norway.",0.85,0,team_a_win,False,0.224,0.947072,1.4961092271270973,0.536,1.91,3.6,4.1,0.5009,0.2658,0.2333,92,0,team_a_win,100.0,-100.0,True,False,False,0.0351
gemini,m93,knockout,round_of_16,USA,Belgium,1,4,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.38,0.28,0.34,team_a_win,100,"The United States benefits from a strong home-field advantage in Seattle and a massive tactical boost after FIFA suspended top scorer Folarin Balogun's red-card ban. Recent betting markets have dramatically shifted to favor the USMNT (+155 moneyline) against a Belgian squad that required extra time to advance past Senegal. Given this momentum shift and Balogun's reinstated availability, backing the USA to win in regulation presents the strongest value.",incorrect,False,neither,Belgium's overwhelming attacking quality and the inability of the US defense to cope with high-level European opposition.,The narrative impact of Folarin Balogun's reinstatement and the US home-field advantage in Seattle.,"yes, I would have backed Belgium or avoided the bet entirely, realizing that home advantage does not bridge such a massive gap in squad quality.",0.9,0,team_a_win,False,0.34,0.6583999999999999,1.0788096613719298,0.38,2.6,3.4,2.75,0.369,0.2822,0.3489,93,0,team_a_win,100.0,-100.0,True,False,False,0.011
gemini,m94,knockout,round_of_16,Portugal,Spain,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.32,0.31,0.37,team_b_win,25,"Spain's recent 3-0 dismantling of Austria in the Round of 32 suggests they are in formidable form, whereas Portugal narrowly edged Croatia 2-1. Spain's possession-heavy midfield should allow them to control the tempo of this tightly contested Iberian derby. Given these factors, a modest bet on Spain offers the most reasonable value.",correct,True,neither,Portugal's complete inability to break through Spain's defense.,none,"no, the narrow 1-0 result perfectly justifies the cautious $25 stake on what was always going to be a close match.",0.9,2,team_b_win,True,0.37,0.5954,0.9942522733438668,0.37,4.1,3.6,1.91,0.2333,0.2658,0.5009,94,2,team_b_win,25.0,22.75,True,True,False,-0.1309
gemini,m95,knockout,round_of_16,Switzerland,Colombia,0,0,draw,penalties,team_a,0.27,0.31,0.42,team_b_win,60,"Colombia boasts an exceptional defensive record, keeping three consecutive clean sheets in the tournament while dominating shot creation. Although Switzerland recovered well after their opening match, their defense has historically been more fragile and prone to conceding. Backing Colombia to win in regulation offers solid value given their structural discipline under Néstor Lorenzo.",incorrect,True,unlucky,Switzerland's ability to maintain a rigid defensive block under pressure to force a penalty shootout.,Colombia's shot creation reliably translating into goals against a structured opponent.,"No, a 0-0 draw leading to penalties involves high variance, and backing the slightly stronger team with a proven defense remains a logically sound pre-match strategy.",0.9,2,team_b_win,False,0.31,0.7253999999999999,1.171182981502945,0.42,3.45,3.2,2.2,0.2743,0.2957,0.4301,95,2,team_b_win,60.0,-60.0,True,False,False,-0.0100999999999999
gemini,m96,knockout,round_of_16,Argentina,Egypt,3,2,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.7100000000000001,0.2,0.09,team_a_win,100,"Argentina enters the Round of 16 as defending champions and heavy favorites after a flawless group stage and a demanding extra-time victory over Cabo Verde. Egypt has proven resilient by remaining unbeaten and surviving a penalty shootout against Australia, but they lack the offensive depth to consistently threaten South American heavyweights. Backing Argentina to secure the victory in regulation is a highly confident play given their tactical versatility and superior attacking talent.",correct,True,lucky,Egypt's attacking threat and ability to score multiple goals against a top-tier defense.,Argentina's defensive dominance and Egypt's lack of offensive depth.,"no, because predicting an Argentina win was ultimately the correct outcome, even if the match was more competitive than anticipated.",0.9,0,team_a_win,True,0.7100000000000001,0.1321999999999999,0.3424903089467758,0.7100000000000001,1.37,4.7,9.0,0.6927,0.2019,0.1054,96,0,team_a_win,100.0,37.000000000000014,True,True,False,0.0173
gemini,m97,knockout,quarter_final,France,Morocco,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.61,0.24,0.15,team_a_win,100,"France is heavily favored with moneyline odds around -170, reflecting their elite squad depth and dominant tournament form. While Morocco possesses a resilient defense and has proven capable of upsets, France's overwhelming attacking talent is expected to break through over 90 minutes. Backing France to win in regular time represents the most statistically sound position.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, the decision to back the clear favorite was statistically sound and validated by the comfortable two-goal margin.",0.95,0,team_a_win,True,0.61,0.2322,0.4942963218147801,0.61,1.57,3.85,6.0,0.599,0.2443,0.1567,97,0,team_a_win,100.0,57.00000000000001,True,True,False,0.011
gemini,m98,knockout,quarter_final,Spain,Belgium,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.45,0.28,0.27,team_a_win,50,"Spain enters the quarterfinals with tactical discipline and momentum after tightly edging out Portugal, whereas Belgium showed ruthless attacking efficiency by dismantling the United States 4-1. Given Spain's superior midfield control and historical knockout pedigree, they hold a slight edge to dictate the tempo and secure a victory in regular time.",correct,True,neither,I underweighted Belgium's defensive vulnerabilities when forced to chase the game against an elite possession-based midfield.,"I overweighted Belgium's attacking efficiency shown against the US, which proved less effective against Spain's structured block.","no, because staking $50 on a 45% probability outcome correctly balanced expected value and risk in a tightly contested quarterfinal.",0.9,0,team_a_win,True,0.45,0.4538000000000001,0.7985076962177716,0.45,1.63,3.9,5.5,0.5833,0.2438,0.1729,98,0,team_a_win,50.0,31.499999999999996,True,True,False,-0.1333
gemini,m99,knockout,quarter_final,Argentina,Switzerland,3,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.58,0.25,0.17,team_a_win,100,"Argentina enters the match as heavy favorites on a historic 12-game winning streak, fueled by Lionel Messi's exceptional tournament form. Switzerland's defensive resilience has been notable, but the absence of key attacking threat Johan Manzambi limits their counter-attacking potential, providing strong value on an outright Argentina victory.",correct,True,neither,none,"Switzerland's defensive resilience, as they ultimately conceded three goals to Argentina's attack.","no, betting the maximum stake on a strong favorite with a high probability of winning proved to be the correct Expected Value decision.",0.9,0,team_a_win,True,0.58,0.2678,0.5447271754416722,0.58,1.69,3.55,5.5,0.5607,0.2669,0.1723,99,0,team_a_win,100.0,69.0,True,True,False,0.0192999999999999
gemini,m100,knockout,quarter_final,Norway,England,1,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.25,0.25,0.5,team_b_win,60,"England enters the quarter-final as the favorite due to their deeper squad and strong tournament pedigree. While Norway possesses world-class attacking threat with Erling Haaland, England's overall balance and experience in knockout stages give them the edge.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, as the tight 2-1 victory justified the cautious but confident stake on England.",0.9,2,team_b_win,True,0.5,0.375,0.6931471805599453,0.5,3.8,3.5,1.95,0.2479,0.2691,0.483,100,2,team_b_win,60.0,57.0,True,True,False,0.017
gemini,m101,knockout,semi_final,France,Spain,0,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.421,0.261,0.318,team_a_win,100,"France enters the semifinal with a flawless 6-0 tournament record, 16 goals scored, and only two conceded, heavily driven by Kylian Mbappé's Golden Boot-leading performance. Although Spain possesses the tournament's best defense, Opta analytics and most expert models give France a 42.1% edge in regulation, as their rapid transitions and verticality are primed to exploit the spaces behind Spain's high defensive block and midfield pivot.",incorrect,False,neither,Spain's ability to dictate the tempo and neutralize France's rapid transitions through sustained possession.,France's attacking efficiency and Kylian Mbappe's ability to exploit the space behind Spain's high defensive block.,"yes, I would have either avoided the bet or reduced the stake significantly, as betting the maximum on a clash between an elite attack and an elite defense was overly aggressive.",0.9,0,team_a_win,False,0.318,0.710486,1.14570389620196,0.421,2.35,3.25,3.15,0.405,0.2928,0.3021,101,0,team_a_win,100.0,-100.0,True,False,False,0.0159999999999999
gemini,m102,knockout,semi_final,England,Argentina,1,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.28,0.32,0.4,team_b_win,50,"Argentina enters this semifinal on a 12-match World Cup unbeaten streak and has displayed formidable offensive firepower, scoring nine goals across their last three knockout matches. While England possesses a resilient squad that secured hard-fought victories over Mexico and Norway, the defending champions' momentum and attacking depth give them a slight edge to win in regular time.",correct,True,neither,none,England's defensive resilience,"no, the pre-match analysis accurately identified Argentina's offensive depth as the deciding factor, justifying the original stake and pick.",0.9,2,team_b_win,True,0.4,0.5408,0.916290731874155,0.4,2.55,3.0,3.05,0.3723,0.3164,0.3113,102,0,team_a_win,50.0,102.5,True,True,True,0.0887
gemini,m103,knockout,third_place,France,England,4,6,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.45,0.25,0.3,team_a_win,40,"France showcased a more dominant tournament overall, outscoring opponents 16-2 before their semi-final loss, while England merely survived several chaotic knockout matches. Furthermore, France's deeper squad offers a crucial advantage in a third-place playoff where minute management and fatigue are significant factors.",incorrect,False,neither,"The tendency for third-place playoffs to become unstructured, high-scoring shootouts where traditional defensive records and tactical rigidity matter significantly less.","France's structural dominance, goal differential, and deeper squad depth exhibited during the earlier knockout stages.","Yes, recognizing the historically high-variance, open nature of bronze finals, I would either avoid betting a strict moneyline or pivot to betting the over on total goals.",0.9,0,team_a_win,False,0.3,0.7549999999999999,1.203972804325936,0.45,2.05,3.55,3.55,0.4641,0.268,0.268,103,0,team_a_win,40.0,-40.0,True,False,False,-0.0141
gemini,m104,knockout,final,Spain,Argentina,1,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.35,0.35,0.3,draw,100,"While public sentiment heavily leans toward a fairy-tale Messi farewell or Spain's sheer tactical dominance, the matchup fundamentally presents a neutralizing clash of styles. Spain's methodical, high-possession structure is highly likely to stall against Argentina's proven late-game resilience and chaotic low-block transitions, making a grueling regulation draw the most mathematically sound value bet.",incorrect,True,unlucky,Spain's sustained positional dominance and ability to limit Argentina's counter-attacking transitions.,Argentina's ability to absorb low-block pressure and force the match into extra time.,"Yes, I would distribute the stake across Spain win and Draw rather than placing the entire budget on a single outcome.",0.85,0,team_a_win,True,0.35,0.635,1.0498221244986778,0.35,2.25,3.0,3.6,0.4211,0.3158,0.2632,104,0,team_a_win,100.0,-100.0,True,False,True,0.0341999999999999
grok,m01,group,group,Mexico,South Africa,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.77,0.16,0.07,team_a_win,65,"Mexico, ranked ~15th globally with strong recent friendly form (wins over Serbia, Australia, Ghana), enter as overwhelming favorites against 60th-ranked South Africa due to superior squad quality, organization under Javier Aguirre, and an intimidating home opener at high-altitude Estadio Azteca with fervent support. South Africa, despite organizational improvements under Hugo Broos, arrive winless in recent matches with limited attacking threat and face a massive mismatch in experience and depth. Expect Mexico to dominate early and secure a comfortable win in front of a roaring crowd.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, the clean 2-0 win at Azteca validated the heavy favorite assessment and high Mexico win probability in both forecasts",0.85,0,team_a_win,True,0.77,0.0833999999999999,0.2613647641344075,0.77,1.4,4.6,8.0,0.676,0.2057,0.1183,1,0,team_a_win,65.0,25.999999999999996,True,True,False,0.0939999999999999
grok,m02,group,group,Korea Republic,Czechia,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.42,0.32,0.26,team_a_win,55,"South Korea holds a modest edge over Czechia due to a higher FIFA ranking (25th vs 41st), superior squad quality with stars like Son Heung-min, and better acclimatization to Guadalajara's ~1,566m altitude after targeted preparation, despite mixed recent friendlies and some injury doubts. Czechia is resilient and dangerous on the counter via Schick but has less depth and World Cup pedigree in this high-stakes opener. Bookmaker odds are near even, creating slight value on a South Korea win at around +160 to +175.",correct,True,neither,none,recent mixed friendlies and minor injury doubts for South Korea,"no, the narrow probabilistic edge to South Korea win justified a moderate stake on the slight favorite despite tight odds",0.8,0,team_a_win,True,0.42,0.5064000000000001,0.8675005677047231,0.42,2.55,3.15,2.85,0.3698,0.2994,0.3309,2,0,team_a_win,55.0,85.24999999999999,True,True,False,0.0501999999999999
grok,m03,group,group,USA,Paraguay,4,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.6,0.26,0.14,team_a_win,65,"USA holds clear edges as 2026 World Cup hosts in their Group D opener: 17th in FIFA rankings vs Paraguay's 41st, recent 2-1 friendly win over them, full squad with fit Chris Richards, and electric home support at SoFi Stadium, while Paraguay returns after 16 years missing star attacker Julio Enciso (thigh injury). Paraguay's physical, defensive style under Alfaro can frustrate and keep scores low, but USMNT quality (Pulisic, Balogun, Pulisic-led attack) and motivation should deliver three points. Betting markets list USA as slight favorites (~ -105), consistent with this edge.",correct,True,neither,USA's clinical attacking efficiency and ability to break down Paraguay's defense in transition and set pieces once the game opened up,Paraguay's defensive resilience keeping the match tight and low-scoring,"no, the team_a_win pick and 65 stake aligned well with the identified edges in ranking, H2H, home advantage, and Enciso absence that all proved decisive",0.75,0,team_a_win,True,0.6,0.2472,0.5108256237659907,0.6,1.9523809523809523,3.4,4.2,0.4904,0.2816,0.228,3,0,team_a_win,65.0,61.9047619047619,True,True,False,0.1095999999999999
grok,m04,group,group,Canada,Bosnia and Herzegovina,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.63,0.25,0.12,team_a_win,70,"Canada are clear favorites as hosts in their historic first World Cup match on home soil at BMO Field, with superior FIFA ranking (~30 vs ~64-67), squad depth, and motivation despite Alphonso Davies' hamstring absence; Jonathan David and the attack should create enough chances. Bosnia and Herzegovina are organized and resilient with Edin Džeko up top but have a history of draws in qualifiers and lack the quality to consistently beat a motivated home side. Expect a narrow, low-scoring Canada win in this Group B opener.",partially_correct,True,unlucky,Bosnia's defensive organization and proven ability to secure draws against higher-ranked sides in important matches,Canada's home-soil motivation and squad depth advantage in their historic World Cup opener,"yes, I would have staked less than 70 on team_a_win and allocated some budget to draw to better balance the resilience and draw-heavy tendencies of Bosnia that I already noted in my reasoning",0.7,0,team_a_win,False,0.25,0.9738,1.3862943611198906,0.63,1.8333333333333333,3.65,4.7,0.5284,0.2654,0.2061,4,0,team_a_win,70.0,-70.0,True,False,False,0.1016
grok,m05,group,group,Qatar,Switzerland,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.09,0.16,0.75,team_b_win,75,"Switzerland enter as heavy favorites with a FIFA ranking of 19th versus Qatar's 56th, a more experienced and organized squad featuring Granit Xhaka, and stronger recent form. Qatar have struggled offensively in recent friendlies (limited goals scored) and face a disciplined Swiss side on neutral ground in San Francisco. Consensus previews and betting markets strongly back a comfortable Switzerland win.",incorrect,False,unlucky,Qatar's defensive organization and resilience in grinding out a result as underdogs in a high-stakes World Cup opener,Switzerland's expected dominance and margin of victory based on ranking gap and squad quality,"Yes, I would have lowered the stake on team_b_win and given more probability weight to draw to account for cagey opening-group dynamics and variance in one-off matches.",0.7,2,team_b_win,False,0.16,1.2761999999999998,1.8325814637483104,0.75,12.0,6.5,1.2222222222222223,0.079,0.1458,0.7753,5,2,team_b_win,75.0,-75.0,True,False,False,-0.0252999999999999
grok,m06,group,group,Brazil,Morocco,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.57,0.26,0.17,team_a_win,50,"Brazil enter as favorites in this Group C opener despite key absences (Neymar, Rodrygo, Militão, Wesley) thanks to superior squad depth and attacking talent under Ancelotti, while Morocco (FIFA-ranked just below them) remain dangerous on counters but are also missing key defender Aguerd. Models and previews consistently point to a Brazil win (55-60% range) in a potentially open game with goals likely, though the closeness in rankings and Brazil's mixed recent form warrant caution. A moderate stake on Brazil reflects solid but not overwhelming edge at current odds.",partially_correct,True,unlucky,Morocco's defensive organization and counter threat proving sufficient to frustrate Brazil into a low-conversion draw despite my acknowledgment of both teams' injuries,Brazil's attacking depth and Ancelotti-driven dominance leading to an expected narrow-to-comfortable win rather than a cagey stalemate,"yes, I would have bet a smaller stake on Brazil win or considered draw/no-bet given how close the FIFA rankings were and how the specific injuries materialized into a competitive rather than one-sided game",0.72,0,team_a_win,False,0.26,0.9014,1.3470736479666092,0.57,1.598802395209581,3.9,5.0,0.5781,0.237,0.1849,6,0,team_a_win,50.0,-50.0,True,False,False,-0.0080999999999999
grok,m07,group,group,Haiti,Scotland,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.15,0.25,0.6,team_b_win,60,"Scotland enter as clear favorites due to their superior FIFA ranking (around 42nd vs Haiti's 83rd), greater depth of Premier League-caliber players including McTominay and Robertson, and strong recent form with convincing 4-0 and 4-1 warmup wins. Haiti, in a rare World Cup appearance, will rely on passion, physicality, and counter threats from Isidor and Nazon but lack the squad quality and experience to consistently trouble Scotland's organized defense. A controlled Scottish victory is the most probable outcome in this Group C opener at Gillette Stadium.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, the 0-1 result aligned closely with my assessment of Scotland's quality edge and form advantage, confirming the 60% probability assigned to a team_b_win",0.8,2,team_b_win,True,0.6,0.245,0.5108256237659907,0.6,6.25,4.75,1.5882352941176472,0.16,0.2105,0.6295,7,2,team_b_win,60.0,35.29411764705883,True,True,False,-0.0294999999999999
grok,m08,group,group,Australia,Türkiye,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.25,0.31,0.44,team_b_win,50,"Turkey enter as narrow favorites with superior recent form (unbeaten in 8 matches), higher FIFA ranking (~22 vs Australia's ~27), and greater attacking quality via players like Arda Guler and Hakan Calhanoglu, despite Kenan Yildiz's likely absence. Australia offer defensive organization and World Cup experience but have inconsistent recent results and limited goal threat. A tight, low-scoring Turkey win is the most probable outcome in this Group D opener at BC Place.",incorrect,False,unlucky,Australia's counter-attacking efficiency and set-piece threat materializing despite recent inconsistent form,Turkey's recent unbeaten streak and squad quality directly translating to on-pitch dominance in a high-stakes opener,"no, a single result sits comfortably inside the 25% probability tail I assigned to an Australia win and does not invalidate the pre-match relative-strength assessment",0.8,2,team_b_win,False,0.25,0.8522,1.3862943611198906,0.44,5.0,3.75,1.7,0.1896,0.2528,0.5576,8,2,team_b_win,50.0,-50.0,True,False,False,-0.1175999999999999
grok,m09,group,group,Germany,Curaçao,7,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.93,0.05,0.02,team_a_win,85,"Germany are overwhelming favorites against a far weaker Curaçao side making their World Cup debut, with squad quality, experience, and form creating a massive mismatch in this Group E opener. Betting markets price Germany at -3333 or better (implying ~97% win probability) and previews consistently predict a heavy victory such as 3-0 or 4-0. The probability of anything other than a German win is negligible.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, the 93% probability on team_a_win and $85 stake were well-justified by the pre-match mismatch and delivered as expected",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.93,0.0077999999999999,0.0725706928348353,0.93,1.04,19.0,34.0,0.9214,0.0504,0.0282,9,0,team_a_win,85.0,3.400000000000003,True,True,False,0.0086
grok,m10,group,group,Netherlands,Japan,2,2,draw,regulation,,0.51,0.26,0.23,team_a_win,45,"Netherlands hold a clear quality edge (FIFA 8th vs Japan 18th) with superior squad depth and experience despite minor injuries (Timber out, Verbruggen doubtful but likely available); Japan are in good recent form and dangerous on the counter but significantly weakened by key absences including captain Endo, Mitoma and Minamino. Expect the Dutch to dominate possession at AT&T Stadium and grind out a narrow Group F opener win. At around even money this offers slight positive EV.",incorrect,True,unlucky,Japan's counter-attacking efficiency and defensive organization despite key injuries,"Netherlands' squad quality, ranking edge, and experience directly producing a win in the opener","yes, I would have bet a smaller stake on team_a_win (or no bet) because my own probabilities already showed a close contest with a substantial draw chance",0.68,0,team_a_win,False,0.26,0.8606,1.3470736479666092,0.51,2.0,3.5,3.6,0.4701,0.2687,0.2612,10,0,team_a_win,45.0,-45.0,True,False,False,0.0398999999999999
grok,m11,group,group,Côte d'Ivoire,Ecuador,1,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.27,0.32,0.41,team_b_win,40,"Ecuador hold a narrow edge as the higher-ranked side (23rd vs 33rd) with a more cohesive, elite-level defensive core (Pacho, Hincapié, Caicedo) and proven low-concession qualification record, suiting a disciplined high-press and counter style on neutral ground. Côte d'Ivoire bring attacking threat and strong recent form (including a friendly win over France) but are weakened by Ndicka's absence and may find it hard to break down Ecuador's organized backline in what projects as a tight, low-scoring Group E opener. With both sides likely prioritizing a result over open play, Ecuador's structure and experience give them the best shot at the three points.",incorrect,False,unlucky,Ivory Coast's attacking depth and clinical execution overcoming Ecuador's defensive structure despite Ndicka's absence,Ecuador's ranking edge and qualification defensive record as decisive in a neutral-venue World Cup opener,"yes, I would assign a higher probability to team_a_win (closer to 35%) and bet smaller or on draw in similar high-stakes low-scoring Group E-style matches",0.7,2,team_b_win,False,0.27,0.8033999999999999,1.3093333199837622,0.41,3.5,2.75,2.4,0.268,0.3411,0.3909,11,2,team_b_win,40.0,-40.0,True,False,False,0.0190999999999999
grok,m12,group,group,Sweden,Tunisia,5,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.53,0.27,0.2,team_a_win,65,"Sweden hold a clear quality edge with Premier League attackers Isak and Gyokeres capable of breaking down Tunisia's compact block, especially after Tunisia's 0-5 friendly thrashing by Belgium exposed defensive frailties despite their strong qualifying record. Neutral venue in Mexico and Sweden's historical World Cup pedigree further tilt the scales toward the Europeans in this Group F opener. Betting markets and previews align on Sweden as ~52-55% favorites at near even-money odds offering value.",correct,True,neither,the full extent of Tunisia's defensive disorganization and vulnerability to high-quality European transitions after their recent 0-5 friendly loss,Tunisia's ability to stay compact and hard to break down with an organized defensive block,"no, the core reasoning on Sweden's superior attacking quality and Tunisia's exposed frailties was validated by the decisive result",0.68,0,team_a_win,True,0.53,0.3338,0.6348782724359695,0.53,1.9,3.4,4.333333333333334,0.5007,0.2798,0.2195,12,0,team_a_win,65.0,58.49999999999999,True,True,False,0.0292999999999999
grok,m13,group,group,Spain,Cabo Verde,0,0,draw,regulation,,0.89,0.08,0.03,team_a_win,75,"Spain (FIFA #2, Euro 2024 champions with elite depth even when rotating stars like Yamal to the bench) face a massive mismatch against Cabo Verde (#67, World Cup debutants with solid qualifying results but far inferior squad quality and experience). Betting markets and previews consistently price Spain at 87-92% implied win probability with expected comfortable victory; Cabo Verde's recent form offers little realistic hope of an upset.",incorrect,False,unlucky,Cabo Verde's compact defensive organization and resilience allowing them to frustrate a rotated Spain side,Spain's inevitable dominance and attacking output even with squad rotation in a group opener,"yes, I would have used a much smaller stake on team_a_win or considered a small bet on draw given the risk of a cautious, low-scoring opener against a well-organized underdog",0.82,0,team_a_win,False,0.08,1.6394,2.525728644308256,0.89,1.09891196834817,14.29,25.0,0.8922,0.0686,0.0392,13,0,team_a_win,75.0,-75.0,True,False,False,-0.0021999999999999
grok,m14,group,group,IR Iran,New Zealand,2,2,draw,regulation,,0.66,0.22,0.12,team_a_win,55,"Iran hold a substantial quality advantage, ranked approximately 21st in the world versus New Zealand at 85th, combined with greater international experience and stronger recent friendly results including a 5-0 win over Costa Rica. New Zealand's preparations have been undermined by heavy defeats to Haiti and England, leaving them as heavy underdogs for this Group G encounter. This mismatch points to a comfortable Iran victory in their opening match of the 2026 World Cup at SoFi Stadium.",partially_correct,True,unlucky,off-field political protests and divisions creating extra pressure or distraction for the Iranian squad,the expected comfortable dominance from the large ranking/experience gap without sufficient allowance for variance or motivation,"yes, I would reduce the stake on strong favorites in similar World Cup openers to account for higher variance from motivated underdogs and external factors",0.65,0,team_a_win,False,0.22,1.0584,1.5141277326297755,0.66,1.8333333333333333,3.4,4.75,0.5194,0.2801,0.2005,14,0,team_a_win,55.0,-55.0,True,False,False,0.1406
grok,m15,group,group,Saudi Arabia,Uruguay,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.13,0.24,0.63,team_b_win,70,"Uruguay enter as heavy favorites with a vastly superior squad (FIFA ~16th vs Saudi ~61st), elite players like Valverde, Araujo, and Nunez in top European leagues, and Bielsa's high-pressing system, while Saudi Arabia's recent form is poor (mostly losses/draw in friendlies) and relies on domestic-league talent outside Al-Dawsari. Uruguay's travel fatigue from a delayed flight is a minor concern but unlikely to offset the massive quality gap in this Group H opener. Betting markets and previews consistently price Uruguay at ~65% implied win probability with expected 2+ goal margins.",incorrect,False,unlucky,"Uruguay's fatigue from the delayed flight and late Sunday arrival (less than 24 hours before kickoff), which blunted their expected dominance more than I allowed for","Uruguay's overall squad quality, European experience, and Bielsa tactical edge as near-guarantees of a comfortable win","Yes, I would have lowered the stake on Uruguay win or shifted some probability mass to draw to better account for the travel-fatigue risk I had flagged but downplayed.",0.68,2,team_b_win,False,0.24,0.9914,1.4271163556401458,0.63,8.33,3.8,1.4716981132075473,0.113,0.2476,0.6394,15,2,team_b_win,70.0,-70.0,True,False,False,-0.0093999999999999
grok,m16,group,group,Belgium,Egypt,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.59,0.24,0.17,team_a_win,60,"Belgium are clear favorites with superior squad quality, higher FIFA ranking (9th vs 29th for Egypt), and key creators like De Bruyne and Doku expected to dominate, while Egypt's main threat is Salah on the counter but they lack overall depth. Previews, models, and betting markets (Belgium around -155 to -170) consistently point to a Belgian win in this Group G opener despite Belgium's occasional tournament underperformance and Egypt's defensive organization. A Belgian victory is the most probable outcome with the match starting in hours at Lumen Field.",partially_correct,True,unlucky,Egypt's defensive organization and counter-attacking efficiency allowing them to frustrate Belgium and snatch an equalizer,Belgium's squad superiority and attacking talent directly translating into a comfortable victory,"yes, I would have bet a smaller stake on team_a_win or split some on draw, since I had already flagged non-negligible risks of a tight game and Egypt's threat",0.78,0,team_a_win,False,0.24,0.9546,1.4271163556401458,0.59,1.6451612903225803,3.85,5.25,0.5745,0.2455,0.18,16,0,team_a_win,60.0,-60.0,True,False,False,0.0154999999999999
grok,m17,group,group,Austria,Jordan,3,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.7200000000000001,0.19,0.09,team_a_win,75,"Austria (FIFA rank ~24) vastly outclasses Jordan (~63-64) in squad depth, experience, and recent form, with strong European results and a 5-1 friendly win over Ghana; Jordan makes its WC debut missing key striker Al-Naimat and coming off a 4-1 warm-up loss to Switzerland. Even accounting for minor Austrian absences (e.g., Baumgartner), the quality gap at a neutral venue points to a comfortable Austria victory in this Group J opener. Betting markets reflect this with Austria at heavy favorites around -280.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, the decisive 3-1 result aligned closely with the high probability and strong favoritism I assigned to team_a_win, validating the substantial stake",0.8,0,team_a_win,True,0.7200000000000001,0.1225999999999999,0.3285040669720359,0.7200000000000001,1.3846153846153846,4.7,8.0,0.6813,0.2007,0.1179,17,0,team_a_win,75.0,28.846153846153843,True,True,False,0.0387
grok,m18,group,group,France,Senegal,3,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.66,0.21,0.13,team_a_win,75,"France enter as overwhelming favorites with elite squad depth, Mbappé-led attack, and FIFA rank 3 vs Senegal's ~15; Opta models and betting markets (France -220) converge on ~65% win probability for the Group I opener at MetLife Stadium. Senegal pose counter-attack and set-piece threats with Mané/Jackson but lack the quality to consistently trouble France's defense. A France win is the clear value virtual bet to maximize expected return from the $100 budget.",correct,True,neither,none,Senegal's counter-attacking threat and physical midfield making the match closer than it turned out,"no, the decisive 3-1 win validated assigning the highest probability and largest stake to team_a_win as the clear favorite",0.8,0,team_a_win,True,0.66,0.1765999999999999,0.4155154439616658,0.66,1.4545454545454546,4.5,7.0,0.6532,0.2111,0.1357,18,0,team_a_win,75.0,34.09090909090909,True,True,False,0.0068
grok,m19,group,group,Iraq,Norway,1,4,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.08,0.13,0.79,team_b_win,65,"Norway (FIFA ~30-32nd, first WC since 1998) enter as heavy favorites vs 57th-ranked Iraq in this Group I opener, powered by world-class attackers Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard plus strong qualifying form. Iraq showed fight in a recent 1-1 friendly draw with (understrength) Spain but lack the quality and depth to compete with Norway's firepower on neutral ground at Gillette Stadium. Expect a controlled Norway win, likely with multiple goals.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, the 4-1 result directly validated my assessment of the large quality gap, Haaland/Odegaard impact, and Norway's motivation making a comfortable victory the expected outcome",0.8,2,team_b_win,True,0.79,0.0673999999999999,0.2357223335210698,0.79,13.0,7.0,1.2,0.073,0.1357,0.7913,19,2,team_b_win,65.0,12.999999999999996,True,True,False,-0.0012999999999999
grok,m20,group,group,Argentina,Algeria,3,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.7200000000000001,0.2,0.08,team_a_win,75,"Argentina, the defending champions and current FIFA #1, arrive in strong form after recent friendlies with clean sheets and have key players including Messi (mild hamstring), Álvarez, and Martínez all fit to start. Algeria (FIFA ~28-33) impressed in qualifiers but face a large quality gap against a motivated Argentina side in their Group J opener at Arrowhead Stadium. Consensus from prediction markets (Kalshi ~70% Argentina win) and previews supports a comfortable home-favorite victory.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, the clear Argentina win aligned with my 72% probability and high-stakes bet on team_a_win",0.8,0,team_a_win,True,0.7200000000000001,0.1247999999999999,0.3285040669720359,0.7200000000000001,1.4081632653061225,4.76,9.09,0.6893,0.2039,0.1068,20,0,team_a_win,75.0,30.612244897959183,True,True,False,0.0307
grok,m21,group,group,Portugal,Congo DR,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.83,0.12,0.05,team_a_win,80,"Portugal (FIFA #5, star-studded squad with Ronaldo, Fernandes, Vitinha) faces a massive mismatch against DR Congo (#46, first WC since 1974, limited depth and defensive vulnerabilities). Betting markets price Portugal at -350 to -360 with expert previews (CBS, SI, WhoScored) unanimously forecasting comfortable wins and high goal tallies; first-ever meeting favors the heavy favorites heavily. With ~10 hours to kickoff in Houston and strong motivation for Portugal's opener, a dominant result is the highest-probability outcome.",incorrect,False,unlucky,DR Congo's defensive compactness and counter-attacking threat allowing them to secure a point despite the gap,Portugal's squad quality and ranking difference as near-guarantees of a dominant multi-goal win,"yes, I would assign higher probability to draws (~20%) and use a lower stake on team_a_win in similar mismatches to reflect occasional resilience from underdogs",0.75,0,team_a_win,False,0.12,1.4657999999999998,2.120263536200091,0.83,1.2702702702702702,5.6,12.0,0.7504,0.1702,0.0794,21,0,team_a_win,80.0,-80.0,True,False,False,0.0796
grok,m22,group,group,England,Croatia,4,2,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.58,0.27,0.15,team_a_win,65,"England enter as clear favorites with superior squad depth, attacking quality (Kane, Bellingham) and recent H2H edge, despite minor fitness concerns around Saka and the late Livramento injury; Tuchel's organized side should control this Group L opener at AT&T Stadium against an aging but experienced Croatia. Previews and betting markets (England ~ -135 to -140) align on a narrow England win being the most probable outcome, though Croatia's tournament pedigree keeps a draw live.",correct,True,neither,"England's attacking transitions and clinical finishing creating a more open, high-scoring contest","the expected cagey, low-scoring affair from both teams prioritizing qualification","no, the core team_a_win call matched the result and the 65 stake was appropriate given the pre-match probabilities and odds",0.7,0,team_a_win,True,0.58,0.2718,0.5447271754416722,0.58,1.6993006993006992,3.65,5.3,0.5599,0.2606,0.1795,22,0,team_a_win,65.0,45.454545454545446,True,True,False,0.0201
grok,m23,group,group,Ghana,Panama,1,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.45,0.3,0.25,team_a_win,40,"Ghana enters as slight favorites per betting markets (+120) and most expert previews due to superior attacking talent (Inaki Williams, Antoine Semenyo) and World Cup experience, despite a poor recent run, new coach Carlos Queiroz, and missing star Mohamed Kudus; Panama (higher FIFA rank ~34 vs Ghana's 73) is organized and motivated for a first-ever World Cup win but faces a must-win opener for both in a tight Group L contest at neutral BMO Field. A narrow Ghana victory or draw is most likely.",correct,True,neither,none,Ghana's recent poor form and coaching transition concerns,"no, the 1-0 result validated my core view that Ghana's attacking talent and experience would edge out Panama in a tight opener despite the ranking gap and form issues",0.68,0,team_a_win,True,0.45,0.455,0.7985076962177716,0.45,2.35,3.1,3.2,0.4012,0.3041,0.2946,23,0,team_a_win,40.0,54.0,True,True,False,0.0488
grok,m24,group,group,Uzbekistan,Colombia,1,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.12,0.2,0.68,team_b_win,65,"Colombia (FIFA rank ~13-14) vastly outclass debutants Uzbekistan (rank ~50) in quality, experience, and recent form, with stars like James Rodríguez, Luis Díaz, and Luis Suárez leading a potent attack; Uzbekistan's defensive setup at high-altitude Estadio Azteca may keep it tight but is unlikely to prevent a Colombia win. Odds imply ~70% Colombia win probability, closely aligned with my assessment, supporting a moderate stake on the favorite for this Group K opener.",correct,True,neither,Colombia’s attacking quality and clinical finishing overcoming the expected altitude constraints to produce three goals,the dampening effect of high altitude at Estadio Azteca on overall goal-scoring volume,"no, the core bet on Colombia to win aligned with the actual result and was supported by the large gap in team quality and experience",0.8,2,team_b_win,True,0.68,0.1567999999999999,0.3856624808119846,0.68,8.5,4.5,1.4,0.1116,0.2108,0.6776,24,2,team_b_win,65.0,25.999999999999996,True,True,False,0.0024
grok,m25,group,group,Mexico,Korea Republic,1,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.5,0.28,0.22,team_a_win,60,"Mexico holds a clear home advantage as co-hosts playing at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara before a passionate crowd, coming off a controlled 2-0 win over South Africa while remaining unbeaten in recent matches; South Korea showed fight in a 2-1 comeback vs Czechia and possesses quality attackers like Son Heung-min and Hwang In-beom, but faces a tougher away test with minor injury concerns and a long history of struggling against El Tri. A competitive, high-pressing game is expected with goals likely, but Mexico's edge in form, depth, and venue makes them the value pick over a draw or away win.",correct,True,neither,South Korea's defensive organization and resilience in limiting Mexico's chances despite the home environment and suspension,"expectation of a high-pressing, open game likely to produce multiple goals","no, the most probable outcome was correctly identified as team_a_win with a fair probability and appropriate stake given the home edge and form",0.7,0,team_a_win,True,0.5,0.3768,0.6931471805599453,0.5,2.04,3.45,4.17,0.4807,0.2842,0.2351,25,0,team_a_win,60.0,62.400000000000006,True,True,False,0.0192999999999999
grok,m26,group,group,Canada,Qatar,6,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.77,0.18,0.05,team_a_win,70,"Canada (FIFA ~30th) is markedly superior to Qatar (~56th-57th) and enjoys passionate home support at BC Place plus the return of star Alphonso Davies after missing the 1-1 draw with Bosnia; Qatar has struggled to score and sits near the bottom of Group B. A Canada win is heavily expected (implied ~78% from market odds around -360) though both sides' recent low-scoring form raises a modest draw chance. With a must-win context for knockout hopes, backing Canada at solid value fits the $100 virtual budget.",correct,True,neither,the full extent of Canada's attacking firepower and home dominance once they took control,both teams' recent low-scoring tendencies suggesting a potentially cagey match,"no, the high-probability Canada win assessment proved accurate and the $70 stake aligned well with the 77% forecast",0.8,0,team_a_win,True,0.77,0.0877999999999999,0.2613647641344075,0.77,1.2597402597402598,5.75,9.75,0.7417,0.1625,0.0958,26,0,team_a_win,70.0,18.181818181818187,True,True,False,0.0282999999999999
grok,m27,group,group,Switzerland,Bosnia and Herzegovina,4,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.7000000000000001,0.2,0.1,team_a_win,60,"Switzerland (Team A) are clear favorites vs Bosnia and Herzegovina (Team B) given the large gap in FIFA rankings (19th vs 64th), squad depth/experience, and dominance in chances created during their 1-1 opener vs Qatar, while both sides sit on 1 point in Group B after Matchday 1. Previews and markets strongly back a Swiss win (often 2-1 or 1-0 predictions) at SoFi Stadium as they control midfield via Xhaka and attack with Embolo, though Bosnia's recent defensive resilience (multiple draws) could produce a tight, low-scoring contest. A Swiss victory is the high-probability outcome to boost knockout qualification chances.",correct,True,neither,Switzerland's clinical finishing and ability to convert dominance into a high number of goals after creating many chances vs Qatar,Bosnia and Herzegovina's defensive resilience and compactness from their recent draw-heavy form,"no, the core assessment of Switzerland as heavy favorites due to ranking, squad depth, and control was validated by the result and the bet on team_a_win was the right decision",0.8,0,team_a_win,True,0.7000000000000001,0.1399999999999999,0.3566749439387323,0.7000000000000001,1.57,4.0,5.8,0.6013,0.236,0.1628,27,0,team_a_win,60.0,34.2,True,True,False,0.0987000000000001
grok,m28,group,group,Czechia,South Africa,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.59,0.26,0.15,team_a_win,70,"Czechia hold a clear quality edge as the higher-ranked side (~44th FIFA vs South Africa's 60th) with superior squad depth, stars like Patrik Schick, and dangerous set pieces, while South Africa arrive depleted after two red cards and a dismal 0.07 xG performance in their opening loss to Mexico. Both sides sit on zero points in Group A and need a result badly, but Czechia's organization and physical advantages in the neutral Atlanta dome make them strong favorites to bounce back. Previews across betting and media outlets consistently back a Czechia win in this must-win clash.",incorrect,False,unlucky,"South Africa's defensive organization and resilience despite suspensions, allowing them to grind out a point in a high-stakes must-win game","Czechia's squad quality, set-piece threat, and expected dominance translating directly into a win rather than a competitive draw","yes, I would have bet a smaller stake on team_a_win or assigned more probability to the draw to account for both teams playing cautiously under elimination pressure",0.7,0,team_a_win,False,0.26,0.9182,1.3470736479666092,0.59,1.8,3.7,4.5,0.5301,0.2579,0.212,28,0,team_a_win,70.0,-70.0,True,False,False,0.0598999999999999
grok,m29,group,group,USA,Australia,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.61,0.23,0.16,team_a_win,70,"The United States are strong favorites against Australia in this Group D clash at Lumen Field, boasting a higher FIFA ranking (17 vs 27), superior squad depth under Pochettino, and a dominant 4-1 opening win over Paraguay. Betting odds around -170 reflect approximately 60% implied probability of a USA victory, bolstered by home advantage and recent form despite Christian Pulisic's calf injury concern. Australia have shown defensive organization but are unlikely to overcome the hosts consistently in this matchup.",correct,True,neither,"the depth and cohesion of US attacking options (Balogun, Reyna, etc.) even without Pulisic, enabling clinical conversion of chances",the potential negative impact of Christian Pulisic's calf injury concern on the overall team performance,"no, the 61% probability on team_a_win was well-supported by ranking, form, home advantage and depth, justifying the $70 stake on the clear favorite",0.8,0,team_a_win,True,0.61,0.2306,0.4942963218147801,0.61,1.625,4.2,5.2,0.5884,0.2277,0.1839,29,0,team_a_win,70.0,43.75,True,True,False,0.0215999999999999
grok,m30,group,group,Türkiye,Paraguay,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.47,0.29,0.24,team_a_win,45,"Türkiye holds the ranking and squad-quality edge (higher FIFA rank, stars like Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız) over Paraguay, who were thrashed 4-1 by co-host USA in their opener while Turkey lost narrowly 2-0 to Australia. Both teams are winless and under pressure to secure points in this Group D must-not-lose clash at a neutral venue, but Turkey's superior attacking talent should prevail in a tight, low-scoring contest.",incorrect,False,unlucky,Paraguay's defensive organization and ability to grind out a narrow win via counter-attacks under must-win pressure,"Türkiye's individual talent, FIFA ranking, and squad-quality edge","yes, I would bet on draw or much smaller stake on team_a_win, as the even matchup and both teams' offensive struggles after openers made the outcome closer to 50/50 than my 47% favored Türkiye",0.7,0,team_a_win,False,0.24,0.8826,1.4271163556401458,0.47,2.05,3.3,3.8,0.4628,0.2875,0.2497,30,0,team_a_win,45.0,-45.0,True,False,False,0.0071999999999999
grok,m31,group,group,Brazil,Haiti,3,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.88,0.08,0.04,team_a_win,90,"Brazil are overwhelming favorites (FIFA rank ~6 vs Haiti's ~83) with superior talent depth including Vinicius Junior, Endrick, and Raphinha despite Neymar's absence for fitness reasons. After a 1-1 draw with Morocco that left them on 1 point in Group C (behind Scotland), Brazil are highly motivated to dominate and secure three points at Lincoln Financial Field. Betting markets price Brazil to win at ~89% probability with most previews forecasting a 3-0 or 4-0 scoreline.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, the 88% probability on Brazil win and $90 stake were justified by the talent disparity, recent form, and group-stage incentives, and the 3-0 result validated that assessment without revealing any overlooked vulnerabilities.",0.82,0,team_a_win,True,0.88,0.0224,0.1278333715098848,0.88,1.125,9.5,20.0,0.8513,0.1008,0.0479,31,0,team_a_win,90.0,11.25,True,True,False,0.0287
grok,m32,group,group,Scotland,Morocco,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.2,0.28,0.52,team_b_win,55,"Morocco are clear favorites given their much higher FIFA ranking (~7th vs Scotland's ~42nd), superior squad with stars like Hakimi and Saibari, and impressive 1-1 draw vs Brazil; Scotland's 1-0 win over much weaker Haiti was a solid defensive display but represents a big step up in opposition quality here. Morocco's motivation to top the group and attacking talent should outweigh Scotland's organized resilience, though a low-scoring draw remains possible. Betting odds and expert previews align with Morocco as the most probable winner.",correct,True,neither,none,Scotland's defensive resilience creating a realistic path to a draw,"no, the pre-match assessment of Morocco's quality edge and the 52% probability assigned to their win were appropriate and the outcome validated the bet",0.75,2,team_b_win,True,0.52,0.3488,0.6539264674066639,0.52,5.0,3.6,1.7272727272727273,0.1893,0.2629,0.5479,32,2,team_b_win,55.0,40.0,True,True,False,-0.0279
grok,m33,group,group,Tunisia,Japan,0,4,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.17,0.26,0.57,team_b_win,50,"Japan hold a clear edge in quality (FIFA rank ~18 vs Tunisia ~45), recent form, and squad depth, while Tunisia are reeling from a 5-1 opening loss to Sweden that prompted a managerial change to Herve Renard with minimal preparation time. Expert previews, betting odds (Japan around -190), and Group F standings consistently back Japan to win this neutral-venue clash. A new-coach bounce offers Tunisia limited hope but is unlikely to overcome the gulf in class.",correct,True,neither,Tunisia's defensive organization collapsed even more severely than expected under the new coach with minimal preparation time,the short-term motivational or organizational boost from hiring Herve Renard,"No, the fundamental reasoning that Japan were clear favorites due to ranking, form, and Tunisia's vulnerabilities was validated by the decisive 4-0 result.",0.72,2,team_b_win,True,0.57,0.2814,0.5621189181535413,0.57,6.5,4.0,1.5333333333333332,0.1457,0.2367,0.6176,33,2,team_b_win,50.0,26.66666666666666,True,True,False,-0.0476
grok,m34,group,group,Ecuador,Curaçao,0,0,draw,regulation,,0.86,0.11,0.03,team_a_win,60,"Ecuador are overwhelming favorites against World Cup debutants Curaçao given the vast gap in FIFA rankings (~23rd vs ~82nd), squad quality (featuring Caicedo, Hincapié, Valencia), and motivation to bounce back from a narrow 0-1 loss to Ivory Coast. Curaçao were routed 7-1 by Germany in their opener despite brief early resilience and lack the experience, depth, or firepower to compete over 90 minutes at a neutral venue. Ecuador should secure a comfortable victory and three vital Group E points.",incorrect,False,unlucky,Curaçao's defensive resilience and ability to maintain a compact low block that frustrated Ecuador's attacks,Ecuador's squad quality gap and post-loss motivation guaranteeing a comfortable multi-goal win,"yes, I would have assigned a higher draw probability (closer to 20%) and bet a smaller stake on team_a_win to account for the variance in matches against defensive underdogs",0.72,0,team_a_win,False,0.11,1.5325999999999995,2.2072749131897207,0.86,1.1,10.0,21.0,0.8603,0.0946,0.0451,34,0,team_a_win,60.0,-60.0,True,False,False,-0.0002999999999999
grok,m35,group,group,Germany,Côte d'Ivoire,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.7100000000000001,0.18,0.11,team_a_win,65,"Germany enter as heavy favorites after a dominant 7-1 opening win over Curaçao, with superior squad depth, attacking quality (Musiala, Wirtz, Havertz), and 10-match winning streak under Nagelsmann; Ivory Coast secured only a narrow 1-0 win over Ecuador and face a significant quality gap despite counter-attacking threats like Diomande. Expect Germany to control the game at BMO Field and secure a comfortable victory to nearly clinch knockout progression. Betting markets price Germany around 65% implied probability, offering value at my higher assessed chance.",correct,True,neither,Ivory Coast's organized defense and efficient counter-attacking threat (e.g. Diomande) that kept the game tighter than a blowout,Germany's dominance and expected margin based purely on the 7-1 Curaçao performance,"No, the result validated my core assessment of a clear Germany win and the value in betting on team_a_win at the assessed probability.",0.78,0,team_a_win,True,0.7100000000000001,0.1285999999999999,0.3424903089467758,0.7100000000000001,1.5494505494505495,4.7,5.5,0.6206,0.2046,0.1748,35,0,team_a_win,65.0,35.714285714285715,True,True,False,0.0894
grok,m36,group,group,Netherlands,Sweden,5,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.54,0.27,0.19,team_a_win,60,"Netherlands hold a clear quality edge (FIFA rank ~8th vs Sweden ~38th) with stars like van Dijk, de Jong and Gakpo despite defensive injuries and a passive 2-2 opener vs Japan; Sweden's momentum from a 5-1 thrashing of Tunisia and lethal Isak-Gyokeres duo make this competitive and likely high-scoring, but the Dutch should secure victory at home-soil neutral venue. Market odds (~1.75) align closely with this view.",correct,True,neither,the full extent of Netherlands' attacking superiority and ability to overwhelm Sweden's defense despite injuries,Sweden's momentum and attacking threat from their 5-1 opener against Tunisia,"no, the directional call on Netherlands win and moderate stake were appropriate given the pre-match quality gap, even if the margin exceeded expectations",0.72,0,team_a_win,True,0.54,0.3206,0.616186139423817,0.54,1.7272727272727273,3.8,4.75,0.55,0.25,0.2,36,0,team_a_win,60.0,43.63636363636364,True,True,False,-0.01
grok,m37,group,group,New Zealand,Egypt,1,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.13,0.24,0.63,team_b_win,65,"Egypt (FIFA ~29th) are significantly stronger than New Zealand (~85th) with superior squad depth, star attackers like Salah and Marmoush, and an impressive 1-1 draw vs Belgium in their opener; NZ showed fight in a 2-2 draw with Iran but lack quality to consistently trouble Egypt. Expect Egypt to control the game at BC Place and secure a win. Betting markets price Egypt around 60-65% implied probability, aligning closely with this forecast.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, the decisive Egypt win aligned closely with my 63% probability on team_b_win and confirmed the strength gap I identified between the sides",0.8,2,team_b_win,True,0.63,0.2113999999999999,0.4620354595965587,0.63,5.5,4.0,1.6,0.172,0.2366,0.5914,37,2,team_b_win,65.0,39.00000000000001,True,True,False,0.0385999999999999
grok,m38,group,group,Uruguay,Cabo Verde,2,2,draw,regulation,,0.8,0.14,0.06,team_a_win,75,"Uruguay holds a massive quality gap over debutants Cape Verde (FIFA rank 16 vs 67), with superior depth, experience, and attacking options despite a 1-1 opener vs Saudi Arabia; Cape Verde's 0-0 vs Spain shows defensive grit but limited threat. Low-scoring games are common for both recently, yet Uruguay should break through for a comfortable win. Virtual $75 stake on team_a_win at implied ~70%+ market odds offers strong value.",incorrect,False,unlucky,Cape Verde's counter-attacking threat and ability to score despite defensive focus,Uruguay squad quality and attacking superiority leading to comfortable win,"yes, I would have lowered the stake on team_a_win and raised draw probability after seeing Cape Verde's resilience vs Spain",0.7,0,team_a_win,False,0.14,1.3832,1.9661128563728327,0.8,1.4761904761904765,4.1,7.5,0.6423,0.2313,0.1264,38,0,team_a_win,75.0,-75.0,True,False,False,0.1577
grok,m39,group,group,Belgium,IR Iran,0,0,draw,regulation,,0.7000000000000001,0.2,0.1,team_a_win,60,"Belgium holds a clear quality edge with superior squad depth, stars like De Bruyne and Lukaku, and a 123-point FIFA ranking lead (9th vs Iran's 20th), plus strong recent results despite missing Doku to illness. Iran showed fight in their 2-2 draw with New Zealand and will likely defend compactly, but lack the attacking firepower or experience to upset consistently. Belgium should control the match at SoFi Stadium and claim a vital group win.",partially_correct,False,unlucky,"how effectively Iran's compact, physical defensive setup could completely shut down Belgium's attack and force a goalless draw",Belgium's attacking superiority and likelihood of scoring multiple goals even without Doku,"yes, I would have bet a smaller stake on Belgium win or added consideration for the draw given Iran's proven ability to frustrate stronger sides defensively",0.75,0,team_a_win,False,0.2,1.14,1.6094379124341005,0.7000000000000001,1.434782608695652,4.6,7.5,0.6652,0.2075,0.1273,39,0,team_a_win,60.0,-60.0,True,False,False,0.0348
grok,m40,group,group,Spain,Saudi Arabia,4,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.86,0.1,0.04,team_a_win,80,"Spain (world #2) are overwhelming favorites against #61 Saudi Arabia in this Group H must-win after a 0-0 draw with Cape Verde; despite minor fitness concerns for Yamal and Williams, La Roja's squad depth and attacking quality should dominate. Saudi showed resilience in drawing Uruguay but lack the tools to consistently threaten here, with Opta assigning Spain an ~87% win probability and betting markets aligning closely. A large stake on Spain to win is the clear virtual play given the massive quality gap and home advantage in Atlanta.",correct,True,neither,Spain's squad depth and motivation to respond emphatically after the Cape Verde draw,Saudi Arabia's defensive resilience and counter-attack threat shown against Uruguay,"no, the 86% probability and heavy stake on Spain win were well justified and the 4-0 result validated the forecast without needing adjustment",0.8,0,team_a_win,True,0.86,0.0312,0.1508228897345836,0.86,1.0909090909090908,12.0,21.0,0.875,0.0795,0.0455,40,0,team_a_win,80.0,7.272727272727266,True,True,False,-0.015
grok,m41,group,group,Jordan,Algeria,1,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.18,0.24,0.58,team_b_win,60,"Algeria enters this Group J fixture as clear favorites due to superior squad quality with multiple Europe-based stars (Mahrez, Gouiri, Ait-Nouri, Bensebaini) and a much higher FIFA ranking (~28th vs Jordan's ~63rd). Both teams are winless after opening losses (Algeria 0-3 to Argentina, Jordan 1-3 to Austria) but Algeria's greater depth and motivation to bounce back position them strongly to secure the vital three points. Betting markets (Algeria ~ -150 to -163) and expert previews consistently favor a narrow-to-comfortable Algeria win.",correct,True,neither,Jordan's defensive organization and counter-attacking resilience that kept the match tight despite the talent gap,"Algeria's squad depth and FIFA ranking advantage, which suggested a more comfortable win than the actual 1-2 scoreline","no, the core view that Algeria were the stronger side and most likely to win proved accurate and the $60 stake on team_b_win was the right call",0.7,2,team_b_win,True,0.58,0.2664,0.5447271754416722,0.58,5.5,4.1,1.5714285714285714,0.1712,0.2296,0.5992,41,2,team_b_win,60.0,34.285714285714285,True,True,False,-0.0191999999999999
grok,m42,group,group,Norway,Senegal,3,2,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.41,0.34,0.25,draw,35,"Norway enters as slight favorites on the back of a 4-1 opening win powered by Haaland and strong momentum, but Senegal (higher FIFA-ranked at ~15-17 vs Norway's ~31-32) showed fight against France and faces a must-win scenario to stay alive in Group I. Previews from Covers, Sports Mole, and WhoScored consistently highlight a high-scoring, competitive clash with draw as the most probable outcome given both teams' attacking strengths and defensive lapses. With $100 virtual budget, a moderate stake on draw offers positive expected value relative to market odds around +260.",partially_correct,True,unlucky,Norway's clinical finishing and Haaland's decisive impact turning a competitive game into a narrow win,Senegal's motivation and experience making a draw the single most probable outcome,"yes, I would stake on Norway win rather than draw because my top probability was correct and the result confirmed Norway's edge from form and Haaland",0.78,0,team_a_win,True,0.41,0.5262000000000001,0.8915981192837836,0.41,2.27,3.7,3.22,0.4313,0.2646,0.3041,42,0,team_a_win,35.0,-35.0,True,False,True,0.0754
grok,m43,group,group,France,Iraq,3,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.9,0.07,0.03,team_a_win,85,"France (FIFA rank ~3, fresh off 3-1 win vs Senegal) face Iraq (rank ~60) in Group I at Lincoln Financial Field; the enormous quality gap in squad, experience, and form makes a dominant French victory the near-certain outcome with experts forecasting 4+ goal margins. Iraq have shown little to suggest they can compete at this level. The betting market reflects this with France at massive odds-on.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, my prior analysis of the massive ranking and form disparity correctly identified France as near-certain winners, so the high-stake bet on team_a_win remains justified",0.85,0,team_a_win,True,0.9,0.0157999999999999,0.1053605156578262,0.9,1.0833333333333333,11.0,26.0,0.8771,0.0864,0.0365,43,0,team_a_win,85.0,7.083333333333327,True,True,False,0.0229
grok,m44,group,group,Argentina,Austria,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.66,0.2,0.14,team_a_win,70,"Argentina, the defending champions and FIFA's #1 ranked side (Elo points gap ~280 vs Austria at #24), enter in strong form after Messi's hat-trick 3-0 opener while Austria's 3-1 win was against far weaker opposition; Opta models and betting markets (Argentina ~ -185) both peg the Albiceleste at 60%+ to win this Group J clash in Dallas. Austria's organized high press under Rangnick poses a test but the quality, experience, and home support edge heavily favor the favorites securing qualification. A $70 stake on team_a_win reflects high confidence in the mismatch without overexposing the virtual bankroll.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, the 2-0 result aligned closely with the forecasted probabilities, key factors (ranking gap, Messi form, defensive organization), and the $70 stake on team_a_win was well-calibrated to the identified edge",0.78,0,team_a_win,True,0.66,0.1752,0.4155154439616658,0.66,1.4166666666666667,4.5,7.5,0.665,0.2094,0.1256,44,0,team_a_win,70.0,29.16666666666667,True,True,False,-0.005
grok,m45,group,group,Colombia,Congo DR,1,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.67,0.23,0.1,team_a_win,75,"Colombia are clear favorites with superior squad depth and attacking quality (Luis Díaz, James Rodríguez), coming off a 3-1 win over Uzbekistan, while DR Congo's impressive 1-1 draw with Portugal shows resilience but they lack comparable talent and will likely sit deep in a defensive block. Expert previews and betting odds (Colombia around -200) consistently back a Colombia victory, though DR Congo's organization on counters could make it tighter than the gap in class suggests. Historical precedent also favors Colombia against African opposition in World Cup matches.",correct,True,neither,DR Congo's compact defensive organization and resilience (from their Portugal draw) limiting Colombia to just one goal despite dominance,Colombia’s attacking talent producing a more comfortable multi-goal win rather than a narrow 1-0,"no, the result validated assigning high probability and a large stake to team_a_win as the strong favorite",0.8,0,team_a_win,True,0.67,0.1717999999999999,0.4004775665971252,0.67,1.5128205128205128,4.2,7.0,0.6344,0.2285,0.1371,45,0,team_a_win,75.0,38.46153846153846,True,True,False,0.0356
grok,m46,group,group,Panama,Croatia,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.16,0.24,0.6,team_b_win,65,"Croatia hold a major quality edge (FIFA rank ~11th vs Panama ~35th) with superior squad depth, World Cup experience (recent semi-finalists), and attacking talent despite both teams losing their Group L openers; Panama's winless WC history and limited threat make an upset unlikely. Betting markets price Croatia at ~1.54 decimal (~65% implied) with previews from WhoScored, VSIN, and others overwhelmingly backing a Croatia win (predicted scores 1-2 or 2-0). Both sides need points but Croatia's pedigree and motivation after the England loss tip the scales heavily in their favor.",correct,True,neither,Croatia's defensive resilience and ability to grind out a clean sheet in a must-win match despite earlier vulnerabilities,"the expectation of a more open, higher-scoring contest fueled by both teams' desperation after opening losses","no, the quality gap, rankings, and experience edge correctly identified Croatia as clear favorites and the bet on their win was validated by the result",0.8,2,team_b_win,True,0.6,0.2432,0.5108256237659907,0.6,7.0,4.0,1.5,0.1348,0.236,0.6292,46,2,team_b_win,65.0,32.5,True,True,False,-0.0292
grok,m47,group,group,England,Ghana,0,0,draw,regulation,,0.83,0.12,0.05,team_a_win,85,"England are overwhelming favorites with far superior squad depth, quality (Kane, Bellingham, Rice all fit), and motivation to secure top spot in Group L after their 4-2 win over Croatia; Ghana's narrow 1-0 win over Panama highlighted limited attacking threat and defensive organization that England should easily break down. A comfortable England win (likely 2-0 or 3-0) is the near-consensus outcome across previews and betting markets showing England at -450. Virtual stake placed heavily on the heavy favorite given low variance expected in this mismatch.",incorrect,False,unlucky,Ghana's defensive organization and ability to frustrate a superior side,England's squad superiority and recent form as making a comfortable win almost certain,"yes, I would assign a meaningfully higher probability to draw (around 20-25%) and reduce the stake on team_a_win to reflect greater respect for variance against an organized defensive side",0.72,0,team_a_win,False,0.12,1.4657999999999998,2.120263536200091,0.83,1.2222222222222223,6.5,15.0,0.7877,0.1481,0.0642,47,0,team_a_win,85.0,-85.0,True,False,False,0.0423
grok,m48,group,group,Portugal,Uzbekistan,5,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.85,0.1,0.05,team_a_win,80,"Portugal (FIFA ~top 5-8, elite squad with Ronaldo/Fernandes depth) vastly outclasses 50th-ranked Uzbekistan (first-time WC participants who lost 3-1 to Colombia). Portugal's only blip was a 1-1 draw vs DR Congo; they are heavy favorites per all previews/odds (~1.18-1.22 decimal) and should dominate at NRG Stadium. Uzbekistan has no realistic path to points here.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, the decisive Portugal win aligned exactly with the high-probability forecast and heavy-favorite bet",0.85,0,team_a_win,True,0.85,0.035,0.1625189294977749,0.85,1.2,7.0,12.0,0.7865,0.1348,0.0787,48,0,team_a_win,80.0,15.999999999999996,True,True,False,0.0635
grok,m49,group,group,South Africa,Korea Republic,1,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.21,0.29,0.5,team_b_win,60,"South Korea holds a clear quality advantage with a deeper squad featuring stars like Son Heung-min and Kim Min-jae, plus better recent WC form (win vs Czechia) compared to South Africa's struggles (only 1 goal from open play in the tournament, no wins in last 6 internationals). Bafana Bafana face key suspensions (Mokoena, Zwane) in a must-win scenario but lack the attacking cutting edge and depth to overcome Korea's organization and experience. Expert previews and betting markets (SK around -150 to -155) heavily back a narrow Korea victory in this Group A decider.",incorrect,False,unlucky,South Africa's intense must-win motivation and resulting defensive resilience/tactical discipline that neutralized South Korea's quality edge,"South Korea's squad quality, depth, and recent form advantage, assuming it would reliably overcome the high-stakes underdog dynamic","No, my probabilities already built in a realistic ~21% chance of the underdog win and correctly favored South Korea overall; this was variance in a high-motivation group decider, not a flaw in the directional bet.",0.68,2,team_b_win,False,0.21,0.9582,1.5606477482646683,0.5,5.75,3.9,1.6,0.1648,0.243,0.5922,49,2,team_b_win,60.0,-60.0,True,False,False,-0.0921999999999999
grok,m50,group,group,Czechia,Mexico,0,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.25,0.32,0.43,draw,45,"Mexico, already qualified and leading Group A with 6 points after wins over South Africa and South Korea, field a rotated but still strong side (including Ochoa and Gimenez) at high-altitude Estadio Azteca, while Czechia (1 point, must-win situation) pushes aggressively with Schick and Hlozek but lacks the quality to break down a motivated home defense consistently. Experts widely project a tight 1-1 or low-scoring draw, making +300 odds strong value as Mexico prioritizes avoiding defeat over all-out attack. Key factors include home advantage, Czechia's poor xG creation, and Mexico's defensive record in the group.",partially_correct,False,unlucky,Mexico's dominance and clinical edge even with rotation and lower motivation,the probability of a draw from Mexico being content to manage the game,"yes, I would bet on Mexico win rather than draw as the result showed the quality/home/altitude gap overwhelmed any rotation or motivation effects",0.7,2,team_b_win,True,0.43,0.4898,0.843970070294529,0.43,3.6,4.0,1.9090909090909087,0.2642,0.2377,0.4981,50,2,team_b_win,45.0,-45.0,True,False,True,0.0823
grok,m51,group,group,Morocco,Haiti,4,2,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.83,0.12,0.05,team_a_win,80,"Morocco are heavy favorites with a massive quality gap (FIFA rank ~7-12 vs Haiti's ~83-87), strong recent form (draw vs Brazil, win vs Scotland), and motivation to top Group C for a better knockout draw, while Haiti are already eliminated and lack cutting edge. Previews and betting markets (e.g. ~83-85% Morocco win implied) overwhelmingly back a comfortable Atlas Lions victory despite possible rotation.",correct,True,neither,Haiti's scoring threat and resilience (scoring 2 goals) in a dead-rubber match where Morocco may have rotated or eased off,the expected margin of victory and defensive dominance for Morocco,"no, the win outcome and high assigned probability for team_a_win were validated despite the closer-than-expected score",0.7,0,team_a_win,True,0.83,0.0458,0.1863295781914934,0.83,1.1666666666666667,7.5,15.0,0.8108,0.1261,0.0631,51,0,team_a_win,80.0,13.33333333333334,True,True,False,0.0191999999999999
grok,m52,group,group,Scotland,Brazil,0,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.05,0.12,0.83,team_b_win,75,"Brazil holds a massive quality gap over Scotland (FIFA rank ~6 vs ~41), with elite attackers like fit Neymar, Vinicius Jr and Paqueta under Ancelotti facing a well-organized but limited Scotland side that has scored just once in two group games and must rely on defensive resilience. Historical dominance (Brazil unbeaten in recent WC meetings) and previews/models consistently forecast comfortable Brazil wins (e.g. 2-0, 3-1), though Scotland's high stakes for a potential first-ever knockout berth could produce a tighter contest than the talent disparity suggests. Bookie odds (~-250 Brazil) undervalue the favorite relative to my assessed 83% win probability, justifying a large stake on team_b_win.",correct,True,neither,Brazil's sustained intensity and clinical conversion of chances that broke down Scotland's defense more thoroughly than expected,Scotland's defensive resilience and organization potentially keeping the scoreline closer than the talent gap allowed,"no, the decisive 3-0 Brazil win exactly matched my assessed probabilities, expected comfortable victory, and positive-edge bet sizing on team_b_win",0.81,2,team_b_win,True,0.83,0.0458,0.1863295781914934,0.83,8.0,5.0,1.3636363636363638,0.1181,0.189,0.6929,52,2,team_b_win,75.0,27.27272727272728,True,True,False,0.1371
grok,m53,group,group,Bosnia and Herzegovina,Qatar,3,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.61,0.24,0.15,team_a_win,65,"Bosnia and Herzegovina are clear favorites per Opta simulations (65.9% win probability) and betting markets (~60% implied), entering with better underlying metrics like shots on target and penalty area entries despite both teams sitting on 1 point after heavy Group B losses (Bosnia 1-4 to Switzerland, Qatar 0-6 to Canada). Qatar faces defensive and midfield absences from red cards while Bosnia has Edin Dzeko available and superior European-level experience; a win gives Bosnia the edge for 3rd place and best-third advancement odds. I stake $65 on Bosnia to win given the consistent data edge in a must-win neutral-venue clash.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, the 3-1 result aligned closely with the pre-match data edge from Opta simulations, recent form gaps, and suspension impacts that I had already identified as decisive advantages for Bosnia",0.8,0,team_a_win,True,0.61,0.2322,0.4942963218147801,0.61,1.4444444444444444,5.0,6.25,0.6579,0.1901,0.152,53,0,team_a_win,65.0,28.88888888888889,True,True,False,-0.0479
grok,m54,group,group,Switzerland,Canada,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.44,0.3,0.26,team_a_win,45,"Switzerland hold a clear quality edge with a deeper squad, elite experience (Xhaka, Akanji, Embolo), and better organization, while Canada are hampered by key absences including midfielder Ismaël Koné (out for the tournament) and limited Alphonso Davies; the Vancouver home crowd and Canada's 6-0 win over Qatar provide momentum but are unlikely to overcome the gap in this Group B decider. A low-to-mid scoring game is expected where Switzerland's edge in duels and set-pieces gives them the best chance to top the group. Current betting odds imply roughly 41% for a Swiss win, offering modest value for a virtual stake on the favorite.",correct,True,neither,Canada's home-crowd energy and attacking threat from their prior 6-0 win making the game tighter than expected,the defensive impact of Canada's key absences (especially Koné) on limiting their ability to compete,"no, the narrow win by the forecasted favorite validated backing Switzerland's quality edge despite the closeness",0.65,0,team_a_win,True,0.44,0.4712,0.8209805520698302,0.44,2.3,3.2,3.3,0.414,0.2975,0.2885,54,0,team_a_win,45.0,58.49999999999999,True,True,False,0.026
grok,m55,group,group,Curaçao,Côte d'Ivoire,0,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.05,0.12,0.83,team_b_win,85,"Côte d'Ivoire (ranked 33rd) are overwhelming favorites against debutants Curaçao (81st) given the massive quality gap, superior recent form (win vs Ecuador, competitive vs Germany), and experienced squad featuring Amad Diallo and Franck Kessié. Curaçao showed defensive grit in a 0-0 draw with Ecuador but were thrashed 7-1 by Germany and lack the firepower or depth to upset here, with previews unanimously predicting a comfortable Ivory Coast win to secure knockout progression. Betting markets list team B at ~1/7, supporting my high-confidence forecast.",correct,True,neither,none,Curaçao's defensive resilience from the Ecuador draw,"no, the heavy favorite status and 83% probability for team B win were validated by the comfortable 0-2 result aligning with the quality gap I identified",0.8,2,team_b_win,True,0.83,0.0458,0.1863295781914934,0.83,18.0,8.0,1.1428571428571428,0.0526,0.1184,0.8289,55,2,team_b_win,85.0,12.142857142857135,True,True,False,0.0010999999999999
grok,m56,group,group,Ecuador,Germany,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.12,0.25,0.63,team_b_win,60,"Germany enters with vastly superior squad depth, recent scoring form (9 goals in 2 matches), and historical dominance over Ecuador (3-0 in 2006 WC, 4-2 friendly), even after heavy rotations that still feature quality like Undav, Woltemade, and Rüdiger. Ecuador has managed just 0 goals and 1 point from their first two group games (0-0 vs Curaçao, 0-1 vs Ivory Coast), leaving them reliant on a win here plus favorable results elsewhere for slim third-place hopes, but the talent and organizational gap favors Germany. Market odds around -110 for Germany reflect rotation concerns but undervalue their baseline superiority in a professional setup.",incorrect,False,unlucky,the combination of Ecuador's must-win motivation for third-place hopes and Germany's heavy rotations severely reducing cohesion and intensity,Germany's baseline squad quality and historical dominance without enough adjustment for dead-rubber rotation risks,"yes, I would have bet smaller (or on draw/no bet) to account for the high variance from known heavy rotations against a desperate opponent",0.8,2,team_b_win,False,0.12,1.2338,2.120263536200091,0.63,3.5,4.0,1.95,0.2725,0.2384,0.4891,56,2,team_b_win,60.0,-60.0,True,False,False,0.1409
grok,m57,group,group,Japan,Sweden,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.53,0.27,0.2,team_a_win,50,"Japan enters with superior momentum after a dominant 4-0 win over Tunisia and a solid 2-2 draw with the Netherlands, while Sweden arrives off a demoralizing 5-1 defeat to the Dutch despite their earlier 5-1 thrashing of Tunisia; Japan's much higher FIFA ranking (~18 vs Sweden ~38) and technical midfield control should allow them to dictate tempo against a Sweden side whose defense has looked vulnerable. Sweden's dangerous forwards Isak and Gyökeres pose counter-attack threats and both teams have strong incentives (Japan to lock in knockout qualification, Sweden to stay alive), but the overall edge and home-like crowd support at AT&T Stadium favor the Samurai Blue. Expect an open game but Japan to edge the result.",partially_correct,True,unlucky,Sweden's defensive resilience and heightened motivation to fight for a result that kept their qualification hopes alive,Japan's recent group-stage attacking form and overall superiority translating directly into a win on the night,"no, the probabilities already treated the match as close with a substantial 27% draw chance and the 1-1 result fell squarely inside the expected distribution without invalidating the pre-match reasoning",0.7,0,team_a_win,False,0.27,0.8538,1.3093333199837622,0.53,2.0,3.3,3.9,0.4719,0.286,0.242,57,0,team_a_win,50.0,-50.0,True,False,False,0.0581
grok,m58,group,group,Tunisia,Netherlands,1,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.04,0.1,0.86,team_b_win,75,"Netherlands hold a massive quality gap (FIFA rank ~8 vs Tunisia ~50), superior recent form with a 5-1 win over Sweden, and motivation to top Group F, while already-eliminated Tunisia have conceded 9 goals in 2 WC games and look defensively fragile. Historical H2H shows Netherlands unbeaten against Tunisia, and their star-studded attack (Depay, Gakpo, Brobbey) should dominate despite any deep defensive setup from the visitors. High-confidence bet on Netherlands win given the mismatch and short but justified odds.",correct,True,neither,Tunisia's capacity to score a consolation goal via set-piece or counter despite being outclassed and eliminated,Netherlands' attacking dominance and expected margin of victory (anticipating potentially more goals),"no, the 3-1 result confirmed the heavy favoritism, quality gap, and high win probability I assigned to Netherlands",0.78,2,team_b_win,True,0.86,0.0312,0.1508228897345836,0.86,25.0,11.11,1.1364256480218282,0.0396,0.0891,0.8713,58,2,team_b_win,75.0,10.231923601637115,True,True,False,-0.0112999999999999
grok,m59,group,group,Türkiye,USA,3,2,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.33,0.3,0.37,team_b_win,50,"Both teams' group fates are decided (USA tops Group D with two wins; Turkey is eliminated with zero points after losses to Paraguay and Australia), turning this into a dead-rubber finale where the US will heavily rotate to rest players on yellow cards and manage fatigue ahead of the Round of 32. Even with a weakened XI, the US retains an edge through superior depth, strong recent form, and home support in Los Angeles, while Turkey—motivated for a first World Cup win since 2002—brings attacking quality via Guler, Calhanoglu, and Yildiz but lacks the same overall resources. Expert models and previews still lean toward a narrow US victory (around 1-2).",incorrect,False,unlucky,"the vulnerability of a heavily rotated US backline and midfield to Turkey's creative attackers (Guler, Yildiz, Calhanoglu) in a pride match",US squad depth and home-crowd motivation carrying over strongly even with major rotation and a dead-rubber context,"yes, knowing the full extent of US rotation and Turkey's high motivation for a historic first win since 2002, I would have bet on team_a_win or no_bet instead of staking on the US",0.8,2,team_b_win,False,0.33,0.6758,1.1086626245216111,0.37,3.9,4.2,1.8,0.2442,0.2267,0.5291,59,2,team_b_win,50.0,-50.0,True,False,False,-0.1591
grok,m60,group,group,Paraguay,Australia,0,0,draw,regulation,,0.34,0.36,0.3,draw,50,"This is a high-stakes Group D decider for second place (behind likely-top USA), with both sides on 3 points entering the final match and a draw likely sufficient for both to advance. Paraguay are missing suspended creative star Miguel Almirón while Australia are without injured veteran forward Mathew Leckie; the absences blunt attacking quality on both sides and favor a cautious, low-scoring contest. Australia’s better recent organization and goal difference give them a marginal edge, but the overall profile and market-implied probabilities point to a draw as the most probable outcome.",correct,True,neither,the mutual incentive for both teams to play ultra-defensively to guarantee advancement with a draw,"Australia's slight organizational advantage, which was neutralized by shared caution and missing attackers","no, the draw was correctly identified as most probable given the key absences, low-scoring tendencies, and qualification dynamics that produced exactly this 0-0 result",0.8,1,draw,True,0.36,0.6152,1.0216512475319814,0.36,2.875,2.15,3.9,0.3253,0.435,0.2398,60,1,draw,50.0,57.49999999999999,True,True,False,-0.075
grok,m61,group,group,New Zealand,Belgium,1,5,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.09,0.17,0.74,team_b_win,65,"Belgium holds a massive quality gap (FIFA rank ~10th vs New Zealand's ~85th) with stars like De Bruyne, Doku, and Courtois, even after two disappointing group draws; New Zealand showed fight in a 2-2 draw with Iran and a competitive loss to Egypt but lacks the squad depth or clinical edge to trouble Belgium consistently at this level. A Belgium victory is the clear most likely outcome in this high-stakes Group G decider at BC Place.",correct,True,neither,Belgium's ability to convert dominance into a high volume of clinical goals once they broke New Zealand down,New Zealand's defensive organization and resilience shown against Iran and Egypt,"no, the core assessment of Belgium as heavy favorites due to squad quality was strongly validated by the result",0.72,2,team_b_win,True,0.74,0.1046,0.3011050927839216,0.74,14.0,8.0,1.1798561151079137,0.0684,0.1197,0.8118,61,2,team_b_win,65.0,11.690647482014388,True,True,False,-0.0717999999999999
grok,m62,group,group,Egypt,IR Iran,1,1,draw,regulation,,0.49,0.34,0.17,team_a_win,65,"Egypt enter as slight favorites with superior recent form (first-ever WC win vs New Zealand 3-1 featuring Salah) and maximum motivation to secure Group G top spot and a favorable knockout path, while Iran have only drawn their two matches and lack attacking firepower. A tight, low-scoring contest is expected but Egypt's quality edge and home-crowd support in Seattle should see them edge it. Betting markets and expert previews consistently back the Pharaohs at around even money or better.",partially_correct,True,unlucky,Egypt's defensive injuries reducing their ability to control and close tight matches,Egypt's group-topping motivation translating directly into a win rather than a cautious draw,"no, the 49/34/17 probabilities were well-calibrated for a cagey match and the Egypt win bet had positive expected value on pre-match information",0.72,0,team_a_win,False,0.34,0.7045999999999999,1.0788096613719298,0.49,2.45,2.75,3.3,0.3797,0.3383,0.2819,62,0,team_a_win,65.0,-65.0,True,False,False,0.1103
grok,m63,group,group,Cabo Verde,Saudi Arabia,0,0,draw,regulation,,0.46,0.31,0.23,team_a_win,50,"Cape Verde enter this decisive Group H clash with impressive form, having drawn against both Spain and Uruguay in their World Cup debut, showcasing a resilient defense led by veteran goalkeeper Vozinha. Saudi Arabia, despite a higher FIFA ranking, have looked vulnerable after a 4-0 thrashing by Spain and only a draw with Uruguay, struggling to create chances consistently. With qualification on the line and betting markets making Cape Verde slight favorites, they are well-positioned to secure a vital win in Houston.",partially_correct,True,unlucky,both teams played with extreme defensive caution and risk-aversion in this high-stakes must-not-lose scenario,Cape Verde's recent form edge and motivation giving them a clear advantage,"yes, I would have bet on the draw or no bet because the match setup always pointed to a cagey, low-event affair between evenly matched sides prioritizing safety",0.7,0,team_a_win,False,0.31,0.7405999999999999,1.171182981502945,0.46,2.45,3.5,2.75,0.386,0.2702,0.3439,63,0,team_a_win,50.0,-50.0,True,False,False,0.074
grok,m64,group,group,Uruguay,Spain,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.14,0.24,0.62,team_b_win,55,"Spain enter as heavy favorites thanks to superior squad quality, creative firepower from Lamine Yamal and Mikel Oyarzabal, and midfield control anchored by Rodri, while Uruguay's already limited attack is further weakened by absences of Ronald Araujo and Giorgian de Arrascaeta. Spain have an impeccable H2H record against Uruguay (unbeaten in 10 meetings including two prior World Cup draws) and need only a point to top Group H, whereas Uruguay must win to keep realistic knockout hopes alive after two draws. Expert previews and betting markets converge on a Spain win (around 62-67% implied probability), most likely by a 1-2 or 2-1 margin.",correct,True,neither,"Uruguay's compact defensive organization and resilience despite absences, which kept the scoreline narrower than my expected 1-2/2-1",Spain's attacking firepower translating into multiple goals in this high-stakes group finale,"no, the core pick on Spain to win was validated by the result and aligned with the probability edge and group context I identified",0.75,2,team_b_win,True,0.62,0.2216,0.4780358009429998,0.62,7.0,4.1,1.5,0.1356,0.2315,0.6329,64,2,team_b_win,55.0,27.5,True,True,False,-0.0129
grok,m65,group,group,Senegal,Iraq,5,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.86,0.1,0.04,team_a_win,80,"Senegal (FIFA rank ~15) vastly outclass Iraq (~57-60) in squad quality, experience, and motivation as they chase a big win for possible best-third qualification after two group losses; Iraq are eliminated, missing key striker Aymen Hussein, and have conceded heavily. Recent form and GK injury add slight uncertainty but do not bridge the gap. xG models and betting odds (~80% implied Senegal win prob) align with a dominant home-side performance.",correct,True,neither,the full scale of Senegal's attacking conversion and Iraq's total defensive collapse once the game opened up,the lingering effects of Senegal's prior group-stage losses and Mendy injury on their overall dominance,"no, the high-confidence team_a_win pick and stake were directionally correct and the blowout result validated rather than contradicted the core assessment of the quality gap",0.78,0,team_a_win,True,0.86,0.0312,0.1508228897345836,0.86,1.2222222222222223,6.5,12.0,0.7753,0.1458,0.079,65,0,team_a_win,80.0,17.777777777777786,True,True,False,0.0847
grok,m66,group,group,Norway,France,1,4,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.22,0.27,0.51,team_b_win,55,"France enter as clear favorites with superior squad depth, experience, and attacking quality (Mbappe in top form) despite manager Deschamps' absence, while Norway's Haaland-led attack is dangerous but their overall team lags in consistency and defense. Both sides have already qualified for the knockout stage, which may lead to some rotation or an open game, yet betting markets and previews give France ~55-62% implied win probability. An entertaining match is expected but France are most likely to claim the points and potentially top Group I.",correct,True,neither,France's clinical finishing and defensive organization that turned superiority into a decisive margin,the likelihood of a tighter contest due to both teams already being qualified,"no, the emphatic France win reinforces rather than contradicts my view of their superiority and the value in backing them",0.7,2,team_b_win,True,0.51,0.3614,0.6733445532637656,0.51,4.5,4.5,1.65,0.2115,0.2115,0.5769,66,2,team_b_win,55.0,35.74999999999999,True,True,False,-0.0668999999999999
grok,m67,group,group,Algeria,Austria,3,3,draw,regulation,,0.28,0.4,0.32,draw,50,"Algeria and Austria enter this Group J decider level on points with nearly identical FIFA rankings (Austria ~24th, Algeria ~28th) and similar recent results (both 1W-1L), making it one of the most evenly matched fixtures. Multiple expert previews and statistical analyses consistently predict a 1-1 draw, which secures progression for both (Austria likely 2nd on GD, Algeria strong 3rd). Algeria's flair via Mahrez/Gouiri is balanced by Austria's Rangnick-led organization, physicality, and pressing edge in what should be a tense, low-scoring cagey game.",correct,True,neither,the openness of the game and willingness of both sides to attack despite qualification stakes,"the likelihood of a cagey, low-scoring defensive battle","no, the probabilities correctly ranked the draw highest and the bet succeeded on the actual outcome",0.8,1,draw,True,0.4,0.5408000000000001,0.916290731874155,0.4,3.8,2.3,2.8,0.2494,0.4121,0.3385,67,1,draw,50.0,64.99999999999999,True,True,False,-0.0121
grok,m68,group,group,Jordan,Argentina,1,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.06,0.12,0.82,team_b_win,80,"Argentina have already clinched first place in Group J with two clean-sheet wins and a +5 goal difference, while Jordan are eliminated after two losses and conceding five goals. Even with Messi starting on the bench for rotation, Argentina's immense squad depth and quality gap make an upset or draw highly unlikely against a deflated opponent. Expert previews, consensus scorelines (2-0 or 3-0), and betting odds (Argentina around -525 to -550) all align on a comfortable Argentina victory.",correct,True,neither,none,the potential weakening effect of heavy squad rotation and Messi on the bench,"no, the high-probability bet on Argentina win with $80 stake was justified by the massive quality and motivation gap and proved correct",0.8,2,team_b_win,True,0.82,0.0504,0.1984509387238383,0.82,16.67,9.09,1.1628664495114007,0.0582,0.1068,0.8349,68,2,team_b_win,80.0,13.029315960912058,True,True,False,-0.0149
grok,m69,group,group,Colombia,Portugal,0,0,draw,regulation,,0.3,0.33,0.37,draw,40,"Colombia enter as Group K leaders with two wins, strong organization and attacking threats (Diaz, Rodriguez, Suarez), while Portugal hold the edge in individual quality and squad depth but must win to claim top spot; humid Miami conditions and mutual motivation for a result point to a tight, low-margin contest where a draw is the most probable outcome per multiple previews.",partially_correct,True,lucky,"both teams adopting ultra-cautious, low-risk tactics to avoid defeat in this high-stakes group decider, stifling creativity and chances","Portugal's individual quality and attacking edge (Ronaldo, Fernandes) translating into goals against Colombia's organized defense","no, betting on the draw was validated by the 0-0 result matching my emphasis on a tight, balanced contest under tough conditions",0.65,2,team_b_win,False,0.33,0.6758,1.1086626245216111,0.37,4.220000000000001,3.8,1.869565217391304,0.229,0.2543,0.5168,69,2,team_b_win,40.0,112.0,True,True,True,0.0756999999999999
grok,m70,group,group,Congo DR,Uzbekistan,3,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.57,0.25,0.18,team_a_win,65,"DR Congo (Team A) enter as clear favorites in this must-win Group K finale versus Uzbekistan (Team B) due to superior squad quality (Wissa, Wan-Bissaka, Bakambu), better recent results (1 pt from Portugal draw/Colombia loss vs UZB's 0 pts and -7 GD after heavy defeats), and higher motivation to chase best-third advancement at neutral Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Multiple previews (Sports Mole, RotoWire) predict 2-0 wins and betting markets/Kalshi imply ~55-58% probability for Congo DR; Uzbekistan lack form, scoring threat, and cohesion under Cannavaro. I forecast 57/25/18 and stake $65 on team_a_win as the strongest value with positive edge.",correct,True,neither,DR Congo's attacking motivation and fluidity against a leaky Uzbekistan defense unlocking more goals than the conservative 2-0 previews suggested,"Uzbekistan's complete lack of scoring threat, as they still managed one goal on the counter","no, the core assessment of Team A superiority, squad quality, and must-win motivation proved accurate and the team_a_win bet succeeded",0.8,0,team_a_win,True,0.57,0.2798,0.5621189181535413,0.57,1.7407407407407407,4.2,4.3,0.5497,0.2278,0.2225,70,0,team_a_win,65.0,48.14814814814815,True,True,False,0.0202999999999999
grok,m71,group,group,Croatia,Ghana,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.51,0.33,0.16,draw,40,"Croatia are significantly higher ranked (11th vs 73rd) with greater technical quality and World Cup experience, making them favorites on paper, but the match context heavily favors a draw as Ghana only need a point to advance while Croatia can likely progress with one too, leading both sides to prioritize caution over risk. Ghana's compact defensive organization has already produced a clean sheet against England, and previews consistently highlight a low-scoring, cagey affair at Philadelphia Stadium. This dynamic creates betting value on the draw relative to the odds.",correct,True,neither,Croatia's superior quality and experience allowing them to break down Ghana despite both teams' caution,the strength of mutual draw incentives and Ghana's defensive organization leading to a stalemate,"yes, I would bet on team_a_win with most or all of the stake because the quality gap and Croatia's need to guarantee progression made a win more likely than my draw emphasis suggested",0.7,0,team_a_win,True,0.51,0.3746,0.6733445532637656,0.51,1.7518796992481205,3.18,5.2,0.5297,0.2918,0.1785,71,0,team_a_win,40.0,-40.0,True,False,True,0.0382
grok,m72,group,group,Panama,England,0,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.05,0.12,0.83,team_b_win,85,"England are overwhelming favorites against a weak Panama side (0 pts, bottom of Group L) in their final group match at MetLife Stadium. Despite minor injury doubts (e.g., Reece James) and likely rotation under Tuchel, England's squad depth, form, and 2018 precedent (6-1 win) point to a comfortable victory. Betting markets and models give England ~82-85% win probability.",correct,True,neither,none,the potential negative impact of minor injuries and squad rotation on England's dominance,"no, the 83% probability and $85 stake on team_b_win were well-justified by the quality gap and pre-match reasoning, and the result validated them",0.8,2,team_b_win,True,0.83,0.0458,0.1863295781914934,0.83,13.0,8.0,1.1666666666666667,0.0726,0.118,0.8093,72,2,team_b_win,85.0,14.166666666666671,True,True,False,0.0206999999999999
grok,m73,knockout,round_of_32,South Africa,Canada,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.23,0.28,0.49,team_b_win,65,"Canada enters as clear favorites thanks to a superior FIFA ranking (~30th vs South Africa's ~60th), greater attacking quality led by in-form Jonathan David and Alphonso Davies (even if doubtful to start), and deeper squad options despite both teams reaching their first World Cup knockout stage. South Africa has shown impressive defensive organization and resilience under Hugo Broos to advance from a tough group, but lacks the individual firepower to regularly overcome Canada's quality on a neutral-ish venue. Expect a tight, low-scoring contest where Canada's edge in possession and transitions proves decisive.",correct,True,neither,Canada's squad depth allowing them to control the game and secure a clean sheet even with Davies doubtful,South Africa's defensive organization and knockout motivation being enough to force a draw or upset,"No, my identification of Canada as clear favorites due to ranking, attacking quality, and depth was validated by the 1-0 result and the bet succeeded.",0.8,2,team_b_win,True,0.49,0.3914,0.7133498878774648,0.49,5.0,3.55,1.77,0.1911,0.2691,0.5398,73,2,team_b_win,65.0,50.05,True,True,False,-0.0497999999999999
grok,m74,knockout,round_of_32,Germany,Paraguay,1,1,draw,penalties,team_b,0.8,0.14,0.06,team_a_win,75,"Germany are overwhelming favorites with vastly superior squad quality (Musiala, Wirtz, Havertz, Kimmich), higher FIFA ranking (~10th vs ~41st), and attacking firepower that should overwhelm Paraguay's compact but limited defensive setup under Alfaro. Paraguay advanced from the group but showed patchy form and face further issues with key absences/injuries; Germany are expected to control the game and advance comfortably despite minor squad niggles like Schlotterbeck's absence. A German win is by far the most likely outcome in this Round of 32 matchup.",incorrect,False,unlucky,Paraguay's defensive organization and ability to force/ win a penalty shootout,Germany's attacking superiority leading to a comfortable regulation-time win,"yes, I would have bet a lower stake on Germany win or considered the draw/penalties more given knockout variance",0.75,0,team_a_win,False,0.14,1.3832,1.9661128563728327,0.8,1.38,5.0,8.5,0.6952,0.1919,0.1129,74,0,team_a_win,75.0,-75.0,True,False,False,0.1048
grok,m75,knockout,round_of_32,Netherlands,Morocco,1,1,draw,penalties,team_b,0.46,0.3,0.24,team_a_win,40,"Netherlands are slight favorites with superior squad depth, attacking talent (Gakpo, Malen, Depay) and midfield control via De Jong/Gravenberch/Reijnders, while topping their group and showing potency despite minor defensive lapses. Morocco remain extremely dangerous with elite organization, Hakimi's threat on the break, and a long unbeaten run, making this a tight knockout tie where an upset is live but the Dutch edge is real per current form and rankings. Bookmakers price Netherlands around +115, supporting a moderate stake on their 90-minute win.",partially_correct,True,unlucky,Morocco's exceptional defensive discipline and penalty shootout prowess in knockout scenarios,Netherlands' attacking talent and squad depth leading to a regulation win,"yes, I would bet on draw or Morocco to advance given their proven knockout resilience and ability to frustrate stronger sides",0.75,0,team_a_win,False,0.3,0.7592,1.203972804325936,0.46,2.15,3.3,3.6,0.4447,0.2897,0.2656,75,0,team_a_win,40.0,-40.0,True,False,False,0.0153
grok,m76,knockout,round_of_32,Brazil,Japan,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.64,0.23,0.13,team_a_win,55,"Brazil holds a clear quality edge with Vinicius Junior's world-class threat, Ancelotti's tactical setup, and dominant group-stage scoring (including 3-0 wins), while Japan—despite impressive organization, recent friendly win over Brazil, and unbeaten group run—lacks comparable depth and firepower in a high-stakes knockout. Raphinha's absence is a minor note but Brazil's squad depth and motivation at NRG Stadium should prevail over 90 minutes or beyond. Market odds undervalue Brazil slightly relative to my assessed edge.",correct,True,neither,Japan's ability to create and convert a goal despite Brazil's control,Brazil's squad depth leading to a more comfortable/dominant win,"no, the 2-1 result aligns with expected Brazil edge in quality and the close but favorable outcome reinforces betting on them",0.75,0,team_a_win,True,0.64,0.1994,0.4462871026284195,0.64,1.74,3.8,4.9,0.5516,0.2526,0.1959,76,0,team_a_win,55.0,40.7,True,True,False,0.0884
grok,m77,knockout,round_of_32,Mexico,Ecuador,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.58,0.26,0.16,team_a_win,60,"Mexico dominated Group A with 3 wins and 3 clean sheets as co-hosts, returning to Azteca with massive home support where they've been unbeaten in recent WC matches. Ecuador advanced dramatically via a win over Germany but showed inconsistency (loss to Ivory Coast, draw vs Curaçao). Historical H2H favors Mexico significantly. Low-scoring affair likely, but El Tri edges it.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, the pre-match reasoning on Mexico's form, clean sheets, and home advantage held up strongly",0.85,0,team_a_win,True,0.58,0.2696,0.5447271754416722,0.58,2.25,2.8,4.0,0.4226,0.3396,0.2377,77,0,team_a_win,60.0,75.0,True,True,False,0.1573999999999999
grok,m78,knockout,round_of_32,France,Sweden,3,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.78,0.14,0.08,team_a_win,70,"France dominated their group with 3 wins, high goal output, and elite depth featuring Mbappé, Dembélé, and a strong defense. Sweden advanced unevenly as a third-place team with a poor defensive record (heavy loss to Netherlands) and face a massive step up. Historical favoritism and current form make a France win the clear outcome in this knockout clash.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, the high probability on France win was justified by their group dominance and Sweden's inconsistencies",0.85,0,team_a_win,True,0.78,0.0744,0.2484613592984996,0.78,1.3,5.75,10.0,0.7374,0.1667,0.0959,78,0,team_a_win,70.0,21.000000000000004,True,True,False,0.0425999999999999
grok,m79,knockout,round_of_32,Côte d'Ivoire,Norway,1,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.23,0.23,0.54,team_b_win,60,"Norway, with Erling Haaland (4 goals already) and a strong squad including Ødegaard, are Opta favorites at ~56% to win in 90 mins after topping qualifiers impressively and advancing comfortably. Ivory Coast reached knockouts for the first time but face a tougher test; rankings are close but Norway's attacking edge and rest strategy give them the nod in neutral Dallas. Expect a competitive but Norway-favored match.",correct,True,neither,Ivory Coast's ability to score once despite being underdogs,none,"no, the pre-match edge for Norway with Haaland and squad quality justified the bet",0.75,2,team_b_win,True,0.54,0.3173999999999999,0.616186139423817,0.54,3.65,3.5,2.05,0.2616,0.2728,0.4657,79,2,team_b_win,60.0,62.99999999999999,True,True,False,0.0743
grok,m80,knockout,round_of_32,USA,Bosnia and Herzegovina,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.7200000000000001,0.18,0.1,team_a_win,65,"USA (ranked ~15-17) are strong favorites at home in a Round of 32 knockout vs Bosnia (~61st). They topped their group with strong results (including wins over Paraguay/Australia), have superior depth/talent (Pulisic et al.), and are unbeaten in prior meetings with Bosnia. Bosnia advanced as group third after an upset but conceded frequently and face a big step up. Expect USA control, likely 2-1 or 3-1.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, the core reasoning on USA superiority and home advantage held up strongly",0.85,0,team_a_win,True,0.7200000000000001,0.1207999999999999,0.3285040669720359,0.7200000000000001,1.44,4.6,7.5,0.6644,0.208,0.1276,80,0,team_a_win,65.0,28.6,True,True,False,0.0556
grok,m81,knockout,round_of_32,Belgium,Senegal,3,2,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.52,0.27,0.21,team_a_win,40,"Belgium (higher ranked, better group momentum with 5-1 win vs New Zealand) has superior squad depth, stars like De Bruyne/Lukaku/Courtois, and experience in knockouts vs Senegal (mixed group stage: losses to France/Norway, big win vs weak Iraq). Belgium favored to control via midfield/attack but Senegal's pace/transition threat makes it competitive—not a blowout. First H2H favors Belgium's quality.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, Belgium win was the right side given squad quality edge shown",0.75,0,team_a_win,True,0.52,0.3474,0.6539264674066639,0.52,2.15,3.2,3.7,0.4439,0.2982,0.2579,81,0,team_a_win,40.0,46.0,True,True,False,0.0761
grok,m82,knockout,round_of_32,England,Congo DR,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.78,0.17,0.05,team_a_win,70,"England topped their group comfortably with strong performances including a 4-2 win over Croatia and 2-0 over Panama, boasting elite talent like Kane and Bellingham under Tuchel. DR Congo advanced with a gritty 3-1 win over Uzbekistan but struggled against stronger sides (1-1 Portugal, 0-1 Colombia). Massive talent and experience gap makes England heavy favorites in knockout stage.",correct,True,neither,DR Congo's resilience and ability to score a goal in a competitive knockout match,none,"no, the 2-1 win reinforces betting on England as heavy favorites given the talent gap",0.8,0,team_a_win,True,0.78,0.0798,0.2484613592984996,0.78,1.27,5.75,13.0,0.7584,0.1675,0.0741,82,0,team_a_win,70.0,18.9,True,True,False,0.0216
grok,m83,knockout,round_of_32,Switzerland,Algeria,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.52,0.28,0.2,team_a_win,40,"Switzerland, ranked ~19th, topped their group unbeaten with solid form and knockout experience, while Algeria (~28th) had a rockier group path including a heavy loss. Historical H2H favors Switzerland. Expect a tight match but Swiss quality edges it.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, the pre-match reasoning on Swiss quality and experience held up well",0.85,0,team_a_win,True,0.52,0.3488,0.6539264674066639,0.52,2.05,3.35,4.0,0.4707,0.288,0.2412,83,0,team_a_win,40.0,41.99999999999999,True,True,False,0.0493
grok,m84,knockout,round_of_32,Portugal,Croatia,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.58,0.26,0.16,team_a_win,60,"Portugal has superior squad depth, talent (Ronaldo, Fernandes, etc.), and recent H2H dominance (7 wins in 10 meetings). They topped strong qualifiers and showed flashes in the group despite two draws. Croatia is experienced and tough in knockouts but struggled vs England and ranks lower. Expect Portugal to control and win in 90 mins, though Croatia could force extra time.",correct,True,neither,Croatia's ability to create late chances despite being outplayed overall,historical H2H dominance,"no, the core assessment of Portugal as favorites with strong squad depth was validated by the result",0.75,0,team_a_win,True,0.58,0.2696,0.5447271754416722,0.58,1.8,3.65,4.7,0.533,0.2629,0.2041,84,0,team_a_win,60.0,48.0,True,True,False,0.0469999999999999
grok,m85,knockout,round_of_32,Spain,Austria,3,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.68,0.2,0.12,team_a_win,60,"Spain, as defending Euro champions and one of the top FIFA-ranked teams (~2nd-3rd), topped their group unbeaten with a strong defense (5-0 GD) and key talents like Lamine Yamal. Austria (~24th ranked) advanced as runners-up but showed vulnerabilities (conceded 6 goals). Historical edge and current form make Spain heavy favorites in knockout stage. Betting Spain to win with moderate stake for value.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, Spain's dominance aligned with the pre-match edge in squad depth and form",0.85,0,team_a_win,True,0.68,0.1567999999999999,0.3856624808119846,0.68,1.31,5.25,10.5,0.7277,0.1816,0.0908,85,0,team_a_win,60.0,18.6,True,True,False,-0.0476999999999999
grok,m86,knockout,round_of_32,Colombia,Ghana,1,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.63,0.23,0.14,team_a_win,55,"Colombia topped their group unbeaten with strong defensive solidity and attacking talent (Diaz, Rodriguez), while Ghana advanced narrowly as best third-place with low scoring (defensive but limited threat). Most previews favor a low-scoring Colombia win (1-0 common prediction). Ghana's resilience could force extra time but Colombia's quality should prevail in regulation.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, the pre-match reasoning on Colombia's quality and Ghana's limitations held up perfectly",0.85,0,team_a_win,True,0.63,0.2094,0.4620354595965587,0.63,1.54,4.0,7.0,0.6231,0.2399,0.1371,86,0,team_a_win,55.0,29.700000000000003,True,True,False,0.0069
grok,m87,knockout,round_of_32,Argentina,Cabo Verde,3,2,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.88,0.08,0.04,team_a_win,70,"Argentina, reigning World Cup champions with Messi, dominated group stage (e.g., wins over Austria/Algeria). Cabo Verde (ranked ~64th) achieved a historic first knockout qualification via gritty draws but faces a massive step up against the favorites in Miami. Experts predict a comfortable Argentina win (e.g., 4-1).",correct,False,neither,Cabo Verde's ability to score and compete closely despite underdog status,Argentina's dominance and expected comfortable margin from group stage form,"no, the high probability on Argentina win was justified given the outcome",0.75,0,team_a_win,True,0.88,0.0224,0.1278333715098848,0.88,1.15,8.5,20.0,0.8384,0.1134,0.0482,87,0,team_a_win,70.0,10.499999999999991,True,True,False,0.0415999999999999
grok,m88,knockout,round_of_32,Australia,Egypt,1,1,draw,penalties,team_b,0.29,0.35,0.36,team_b_win,40,Egypt enters unbeaten in group stage (1W 2D) with star power in Mo Salah and slight FIFA ranking edge; Australia advanced with mixed results (1W 1D 1L) but limited scoring. Betting markets consistently favor Egypt (~+145 ML) in this knockout clash at neutral venue. Low-scoring affair likely but Egypt has better quality edge.,partially_correct,True,neither,penalty shootout execution/specialist quality,none,"no, Egypt was the deserved favorite to advance and my bet aligned with that despite the draw",0.75,2,team_b_win,False,0.35,0.6362,1.0498221244986776,0.36,3.3,2.9,2.5,0.2892,0.3291,0.3817,88,2,team_b_win,40.0,-40.0,True,False,False,-0.0216999999999999
grok,m89,knockout,round_of_16,Paraguay,France,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.07,0.15,0.78,team_b_win,70,"France, a top-ranked team with elite talent like Mbappé, has dominated the group stage and is a massive favorite against Paraguay (ranked ~40th). Historical and current form show France winning comfortably, likely by multiple goals. Paraguay's defense may limit blowouts but offers little chance of an upset or draw.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, France win was the clear high-probability outcome based on rankings and form",0.85,2,team_b_win,True,0.78,0.0757999999999999,0.2484613592984996,0.78,18.0,7.0,1.18,0.0531,0.1366,0.8103,89,2,team_b_win,70.0,12.599999999999996,True,True,False,-0.0302999999999999
grok,m90,knockout,round_of_16,Canada,Morocco,0,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.22,0.28,0.5,team_b_win,60,"Morocco, ranked ~7th in FIFA rankings and with strong recent form including a draw vs Netherlands, enters as heavy favorites over Canada (ranked ~30th). Canada has shown grit advancing as co-hosts but lacks the depth and quality to match Morocco's organization and attacking talent like Hakimi. Expect Morocco to control and win comfortably.",partially_correct,True,neither,Morocco's clinical finishing and dominance in transitions,Canada's recent knockout resilience as co-hosts,"no, Morocco win was the correct high-probability pick given the rankings and form gap",0.75,2,team_b_win,True,0.5,0.3768,0.6931471805599453,0.5,4.9,3.65,1.77,0.1957,0.2627,0.5417,90,2,team_b_win,60.0,46.2,True,True,False,-0.0416999999999999
grok,m91,knockout,round_of_16,Mexico,England,2,3,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.32,0.32,0.36,team_b_win,40,"England hold a quality edge with stars like Kane and Bellingham, unbeaten in the tournament, and are slight favorites per betting markets despite recent scrappy wins. However, Mexico are unbeaten with clean sheets, massive home/altitude advantage at Azteca (huge fatigue for visitors), and strong recent form. Close match likely decided by England's ability to adapt or late quality. Betting England to win in 90 mins with moderate stake.",partially_correct,True,neither,England's late quality shining through despite conditions,none,"no, the slight favoritism on England was justified given the outcome",0.75,2,team_b_win,True,0.36,0.6144000000000001,1.0216512475319814,0.36,3.45,3.2,2.25,0.2769,0.2985,0.4246,91,2,team_b_win,40.0,50.0,True,True,False,-0.0645999999999999
grok,m92,knockout,round_of_16,Brazil,Norway,1,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.55,0.25,0.2,team_a_win,40,"Brazil enters as heavy favorites with superior squad depth, stars like Vinicius Jr and recent group stage dominance under Ancelotti, despite vulnerabilities. Norway's Haaland-Odegaard threat and historical edge vs Brazil (unbeaten in 4 meetings) make an upset possible, but Brazil's quality should prevail in a high-scoring affair. Betting modestly on Brazil win aligns with implied odds and previews.",incorrect,False,unlucky,"Norway's historical dominance and counter-attacking effectiveness against Brazil, amplified by Haaland",Brazil's overall squad depth and pedigree in knockout stages,"yes, with lower stake or no bet on Brazil given Norway's proven matchup edge",0.7,0,team_a_win,False,0.2,1.005,1.6094379124341005,0.55,1.91,3.6,4.1,0.5009,0.2658,0.2333,92,0,team_a_win,40.0,-40.0,True,False,False,0.0491
grok,m93,knockout,round_of_16,USA,Belgium,1,4,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.4,0.27,0.33,team_a_win,35,"USA are slight favorites at home in Seattle with strong recent World Cup form under Pochettino, home advantage, and Balogun available. Belgium remains dangerous but Opta simulations show near-even 90-min odds (USA ~37%, Belgium ~36%). Close match likely to be decided by margins, favoring hosts in regulation.",incorrect,False,unlucky,Belgium's superior attacking execution and ability to exploit opportunities against the US defense,USA home advantage and recent form,"yes, I would have bet on Belgium or no_bet given the clear quality gap exposed",0.75,0,team_a_win,False,0.33,0.6818,1.1086626245216111,0.4,2.6,3.4,2.75,0.369,0.2822,0.3489,93,0,team_a_win,35.0,-35.0,True,False,False,0.031
grok,m94,knockout,round_of_16,Portugal,Spain,0,1,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.28,0.32,0.4,team_b_win,35,"Spain enters as the stronger side (higher FIFA ranking ~3rd vs Portugal ~7th), unbeaten with a strong defense (clean sheets in recent wins) and dynamic attackers like Yamal/Oyarzabal. Portugal advanced via a gritty 2-1 vs Croatia but showed inconsistency (draws, lower scoring). Rivalry history favors draws/low-scoring games, but Spain's form gives them the edge in knockout. Betting on Spain win with moderate stake.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, Spain was the deserved favorite based on form and ranking",0.75,2,team_b_win,True,0.4,0.5408,0.916290731874155,0.4,4.1,3.6,1.91,0.2333,0.2658,0.5009,94,2,team_b_win,35.0,31.85,True,True,False,-0.1008999999999999
grok,m95,knockout,round_of_16,Switzerland,Colombia,0,0,draw,penalties,team_a,0.3,0.29,0.41,team_b_win,45,"Colombia enters as the stronger side per FIFA rankings (~13th vs Switzerland ~19th), recent form, and attacking talent (Diaz, Rodriguez). Switzerland is defensively solid and unbeaten in the tournament but struggles to break down better teams. Multiple previews favor Colombia narrowly in regulation. Betting Colombia to advance or win 90 mins offers value given the edge.",partially_correct,False,unlucky,penalty shootout performance and resilience in a tight defensive battle,Colombia's attacking talent edge in regulation time,"yes, I would have bet less or on draw/no_bet knowing how evenly matched they were defensively",0.75,2,team_b_win,False,0.29,0.7622,1.2378743560016174,0.41,3.45,3.2,2.2,0.2743,0.2957,0.4301,95,2,team_b_win,45.0,-45.0,True,False,False,-0.0201
grok,m96,knockout,round_of_16,Argentina,Egypt,3,2,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.7200000000000001,0.18,0.1,team_a_win,60,"Argentina, defending champions and FIFA #1 with Messi in strong form, dominate as heavy favorites despite a scare vs Cape Verde. Egypt (ranked ~24th) with Salah reached R16 but face a massive quality gap in this knockout clash. Sources predict comfortable Argentina win (e.g. 2-1).",correct,True,neither,Egypt's competitiveness and ability to score twice despite the gap,Argentina's dominance leading to an easy win,"no, the high probability on Argentina win was justified as they advanced",0.75,0,team_a_win,True,0.7200000000000001,0.1207999999999999,0.3285040669720359,0.7200000000000001,1.37,4.7,9.0,0.6927,0.2019,0.1054,96,0,team_a_win,60.0,22.200000000000006,True,True,False,0.0273000000000001
grok,m97,knockout,quarter_final,France,Morocco,2,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.65,0.22,0.13,team_a_win,60,"France enters as clear favorites with dominant knockout form (3-0 vs Sweden, 1-0 vs Paraguay), elite depth featuring Mbappe, and historical edge (2-0 win in 2022 WC semi). Morocco has shown resilience reaching back-to-back quarters but faces a massive step up. Expect a tight, low-scoring affair with France prevailing, possibly after ET.",correct,True,neither,none,none,"no, the pre-match edge for France and expected clean-sheet win aligned well with the outcome",0.85,0,team_a_win,True,0.65,0.1878,0.4307829160924542,0.65,1.57,3.85,6.0,0.599,0.2443,0.1567,97,0,team_a_win,60.0,34.2,True,True,False,0.051
grok,m98,knockout,quarter_final,Spain,Belgium,2,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.62,0.23,0.15,team_a_win,60,"Spain enters as a top favorite with an unbeaten record, no goals conceded in the tournament, and strong recent form featuring stars like Yamal, Rodri, and Pedri. Belgium has attacking talent and an 18-match unbeaten streak but has been inconsistent and faces a defensively solid Spain side in this quarterfinal. Historical edge and current rankings favor Spain.",correct,True,neither,Belgium's ability to score despite Spain's defensive strength,Spain's clean sheet streak,"no, Spain win was the right pick given their overall dominance",0.75,0,team_a_win,True,0.62,0.2198,0.4780358009429998,0.62,1.63,3.9,5.5,0.5833,0.2438,0.1729,98,0,team_a_win,60.0,37.8,True,True,False,0.0366999999999999
grok,m99,knockout,quarter_final,Argentina,Switzerland,3,1,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.67,0.23,0.1,team_a_win,65,"Argentina is the clear favorite as defending champions with superior squad depth, Messi in exceptional form (tournament-high 8 goals), and proven knockout resilience after dramatic comebacks against Egypt and Cape Verde. Switzerland's compact defense and first QF in 72 years provide a threat, but they are limited offensively without injured star Manzambi and have never beaten Argentina in major tournament play. My estimated 67% win probability for Argentina exceeds the ~59% implied by current -145 moneyline odds, offering value on a moderate stake for the 90-minute result.",correct,True,neither,none,Switzerland's defensive solidity and ability to force a low-scoring game,"no, the 3-1 result confirmed Argentina's superiority and the value in betting on their win at the assessed probabilities",0.8,0,team_a_win,True,0.67,0.1717999999999999,0.4004775665971252,0.67,1.69,3.55,5.5,0.5607,0.2669,0.1723,99,0,team_a_win,65.0,44.85,True,True,False,0.1093
grok,m100,knockout,quarter_final,Norway,England,1,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.27,0.26,0.47,team_b_win,65,"England enter with greater overall squad depth, big-tournament experience, and proven knockout performers in Kane and Bellingham despite some defensive injury doubts, while Norway's primary threat is Haaland's red-hot scoring form after their historic run including a win over Brazil. Both sides are attack-minded and the match is expected to be open and high-scoring at a neutral venue, but England's quality and composure give them the clearest edge to advance from the quarterfinal. Virtual bet leans England win given the value at current odds and my assessed probabilities.",correct,True,neither,none,Norway's momentum from their run to the quarterfinals including the Brazil upset,"no, the outcome aligned with my top-probability pick of England win, the 0.47 probability was reasonable for a competitive quarterfinal, and the $65 stake on team_b_win was appropriate and successful.",0.75,2,team_b_win,True,0.47,0.4214,0.7550225842780328,0.47,3.8,3.5,1.95,0.2479,0.2691,0.483,100,2,team_b_win,65.0,61.75,True,True,False,-0.013
grok,m101,knockout,semi_final,France,Spain,0,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.43,0.3,0.27,team_a_win,50,"France are slight favorites in this World Cup semifinal thanks to their flawless tournament record, devastating attack featuring in-form Mbappé, and greater experience in knockout stages. Spain remain a formidable opponent with elite defense and possession play, but previews and betting markets (+135 on France) point to Les Bleus advancing. A competitive match is expected, with France's quality likely prevailing.",incorrect,False,unlucky,Spain's defensive organization and ability to limit France's transitions despite Mbappé's fitness,"France's attacking firepower, recent scoring form, and 'unstoppable' tournament momentum","yes, I would have bet smaller on team_a_win or included draw given how evenly matched the styles proved despite my edge for France",0.7,0,team_a_win,False,0.27,0.8077999999999999,1.3093333199837622,0.43,2.35,3.25,3.15,0.405,0.2928,0.3021,101,0,team_a_win,50.0,-50.0,True,False,False,0.0249999999999999
grok,m102,knockout,semi_final,England,Argentina,1,2,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.38,0.27,0.35,team_b_win,35,"England and Argentina meet in a blockbuster 2026 World Cup semi-final between two of the top four ranked teams, with Argentina (defending champions) boasting Messi’s tournament-leading 8 goals and big-game pedigree while England counters with Kane/Bellingham firepower, squad depth, and Tuchel’s knockout momentum. The contest is extremely tight on paper—razor-close rankings, strong recent form for both, and a history of tense encounters favor a low-scoring battle where individual quality and set-pieces decide it. Argentina holds a slight edge due to experience and star power in this high-stakes Atlanta clash.",correct,True,neither,Argentina's ability to convert individual moments of Messi quality into a decisive win despite a tight contest,England's balanced squad depth and knockout momentum,"no, the near-even probabilities reflected the razor-close matchup accurately and the slight Argentina edge proved correct",0.75,0,team_a_win,False,0.35,0.6398,1.0498221244986778,0.38,2.55,3.0,3.05,0.3723,0.3164,0.3113,102,0,team_a_win,35.0,71.75,True,True,True,0.0386999999999999
grok,m103,knockout,third_place,France,England,4,6,team_b_win,regulation,team_b,0.48,0.28,0.24,team_a_win,35,"France has been one of the most complete teams, dominating until the semi loss to Spain, with Mbappe in top form (8+ goals). England showed resilience but needed extra time vs Norway and lost to Argentina. Bronze games see rotations, favoring France's depth. Neutral Miami venue slightly levels it but France edges it.",incorrect,False,unlucky,England's attacking firepower and motivation in a high-stakes bronze match,France's pre-semi dominance and Mbappe form,"yes, I would have bet on or no-bet given England's semi resilience and star performers like Kane/Bellingham",0.75,0,team_a_win,False,0.24,0.8864000000000001,1.4271163556401458,0.48,2.05,3.55,3.55,0.4641,0.268,0.268,103,0,team_a_win,35.0,-35.0,True,False,False,0.0158999999999999
grok,m104,knockout,final,Spain,Argentina,1,0,team_a_win,regulation,team_a,0.42,0.31,0.27,team_a_win,40,"Spain enter as clear favorites with superior defensive record (one goal conceded all tournament), midfield control, and dominant path including a 2-0 semi over France, while Argentina have relied on late drama and extra time. Betting markets and most expert models price Spain around +125 moneyline; the NY/NJ venue offers some Argentine diaspora support but not enough to offset Spain's form edge.",correct,True,neither,none,Argentina's late-game resilience and Messi narrative,"no, Spain's defensive solidity and tournament form were correctly identified as the decisive edges",0.85,0,team_a_win,True,0.42,0.5054000000000001,0.8675005677047231,0.42,2.25,3.0,3.6,0.4211,0.3158,0.2632,104,0,team_a_win,40.0,50.0,True,True,False,-0.0010999999999999