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"original_study": {
"claim": {
"hypothesis": "Among strong democracies (countries with a Polity IV score of 9 or greater), polarization (as measured by the SD of the “private ownership” responses) will be negatively associated with the size of government.",
"hypothesis_location": "discussed in the introduction",
"statement": "Political polarization is strongly associatedwith smaller government in democratic countries, but there is no relationship between polarization and the size ofgovernment in undemocratic countries. When the sample is restricted to strong democracies, the estimated effect of polarization on government consumption is statistically significant (coefficient in the ‘long’ specification for the “Private” measure of polarization=-18.73, heteroscedasticity robust SE=4.79, p=.01).",
"statement_location": "Table 5 column PRIVATE.",
"study_type": "Observational"
},
"data": {
"source": "polarization: World Values Surveys (WVS); government size: World Bank and International Monetary Fund; GDP, export/import, population: World Bank",
"wave_or_subset": "polarization: primarily the 2000 wave of the WVS, but for some countries the 1995 wave is used; the appendix A shows survey years vary across countries.\ngovernment size: 2003-2005.\nGDP, export/import, population: 2009.\nstrong democracies: Polity IV project.",
"sample_size": "24",
"unit_of_analysis": "country-year",
"access_details": "polarization: European Values Study Group andWorld Values Association. 2006. European and World Values Surveys Four-wave Integrated Data File 1981−2004. Version 20060423. http://www.wvsevsdb.com/wvs/WVSData.jsp (accessed July 17, 2010).\ngovernment size: Gwartney, J., and R. Lawson. 2008. Economic Freedom of the World: 2008 Annual Report. Vancouver, Canada: Fraser Institute. http://www.freetheworld.com/release_2008.html (accessed July 17, 2010).\nGDP, export/import, population: World Bank. 2009.World Development Indicators 2009.Washington, DC: World Bank. (no further access details)\nstrong democracies: Marshall, M.G., and K. Jaggers. 2007. Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions 1800−2007. Polity IV Project. University of Maryland. http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/inscr.htm (accessed May 4, 2010).Polity IV project",
"notes": "The WVS is based on face-to-face interviews with about 1,000 respondents in 83 different countries, but 9 of these are not included in the analysis (Northern Ireland, Puerto Rico, Taiwan, Serbia and Montenegro, Iraq, Belarus, Saudi Arabia, Israel and India). Broad measure of government size: general government consumption as a fraction of total consumption (GOVCONS), the average of the years 2003 to 2005. The control variable ASIAE is included in Table 5 but eventually omitted in strong democracy sample. Regional dummies, FEDERAL and OECD variables should be coded as per: Persson, T., and G. Tabellini. 2003. The Economic Effects of Constitutions. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press."
},
"method": {
"description": "The article studies the relationship between political polarization and public spending using the dispersion of self-reported political preferences as a measure of polarization.",
"steps": "1.Get the government size data (government consumption as a fraction of total consumption, averaged over 2003–2005).\n2. Get the political attitudes data for the 2000 wave. For countries missing in 2000, supplement with the 1995 wave.\n3.Construct the polarization measure by extracting responses to the “private ownership of business” question from the WVS. Compute the SD of responses within each country.\n4.Identify strong democracies by selecting only countries with Polity score ≥ 9.\n5.Add control variables (long specification):\n-Mean response to the PRIVATE question.\n-AFRICA = 1 if in Africa.\n-ASIAE = 1 if in East Asia.\n-LAAM = 1 if in Latin America, Central America, or the Caribbean.\n-COL_ESPA = Spanish colonial origin, weighted by years since independence.\n-COL_UKA = British colonial origin, weighted by years since independence.\n-COL_OTHA = Other colonial origin, weighted similarly.\n-LYP = log of real GDP per capita (constant 2000 USD, year 2000).\n-TRADE = (exports + imports) / GDP (year 2000).\n-PROP1564 = share of population aged 15–64 (year 2000).\n-PROP65 = share of population aged 65+ (year 2000).\n-FEDERAL = 1 if the country has a federal structure.\n-OECD = 1 if OECD member before 1993 (excluding Turkey).\n6.Run an OLS of GOVCONS on PRIVATE polarization, including all control variables. Use heteroscedasticity-robust standard errors.",
"models": "ordinary least squares regression with heteroscedasticity-robust standard errors",
"outcome_variable": "Government consumption",
"independent_variables": "Polarization (SD of PRIVATE responses)",
"control_variables": "Mean of PRIVATE responses, AFRICA, ASIAE, LAAM, COL_ESPA, COL_UKA, COL_OTHA, LYP, TRADE, PROP1564, PROP65, FEDERAL, OECD",
"tools_software": "not stated"
},
"results": {
"summary": "Higher polarization is associated with smaller government consumption (b = −18.73, SE = 4.79, p = .01).",
"numerical_results": [
{
"outcome_name": "GOVCONS",
"value": "-18.73",
"unit": "NA",
"effect_size": "not stated",
"confidence_interval": {
"lower": "not stated",
"upper": "not stated",
"level": "not stated"
},
"p_value": "0.01",
"statistical_significance": "true",
"direction": "negative"
}
]
},
"metadata": {
"original_paper_id": "10.1017/S0003055410000262",
"original_paper_title": "Political Polarization and the Size of Government.",
"original_paper_code": "not stated",
"original_paper_data": "not stated"
}
}
}
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