| { | |
| "original_study": { | |
| "claim": { | |
| "hypothesis": "Higher county-level support for President Trump in the 2016 election is associated with reduced engagement in social distancing during March 19–28, 2020.", | |
| "hypothesis_location": "Abstract (page 2: 'greater Republican orientation were associated with significantly reduced social distancing among U.S. counties') and Introduction (page 3: 'socioeconomic and political determinants of engagement in social distancing among U.S. counties').", | |
| "statement": "The study finds that an interquartile increase in county-level support for President Trump in 2016 (20.3 percentage points) is associated with a 4.1 percentage point decrease in social distancing, indicating less reduction in mobility in those counties.", | |
| "statement_location": "Results section, page 4 ('An interquartile increase in support for Trump ... resulted in a 4.1 percentage point decrease in social distancing (95% C.I. = 3.0–5.2).') and Table 1 (page 7, row 'Share of Trump voters').", | |
| "study_type": "Observational (cross-sectional ecological analysis using ordinary least squares regression on county-level data)." | |
| }, | |
| "data": { | |
| "source": "County-level social distancing data from Unacast based on anonymized cell phone location records, linked with county-level socioeconomic and political data from the American Community Survey (ACS, 2014–2018) and the MIT Election Data and Science Lab.", | |
| "wave_or_subset": "Cross-sectional measurement of social distancing for March 19–28, 2020, expressed as change relative to matched days in a pre-COVID-19 reference week, across U.S. counties.", | |
| "sample_size": "3,037 U.S. counties with available mobility, socioeconomic, and political data.", | |
| "unit_of_analysis": "County (county-level percentage-point change in average mobility).", | |
| "access_details": "not stated (the paper notes that Unacast provided the social distancing dataset for research use but does not describe public access procedures).", | |
| "notes": "Social distancing is measured as percentage change in average distance traveled per person during March 19–28, 2020 relative to a pre-COVID-19 reference week, using data from 15–17 million anonymous cell phone users per day. Negative values indicate greater social distancing (larger mobility reductions). Analyses adjust for county sociodemographic and labor market characteristics, rurality, and state fixed effects." | |
| }, | |
| "method": { | |
| "description": "The authors used cross-sectional ordinary least squares regressions to estimate how county-level socioeconomic status and political preferences, including Trump 2016 vote share, are associated with the degree of social distancing, measured as changes in average mobility during March 19–28, 2020 relative to a pre-COVID-19 reference week.", | |
| "steps": [ | |
| "Subset data to U.S. counties with valid Unacast mobility metrics and linked ACS and MIT Election Data and Science Lab measures.", | |
| "Compute county-level change in average mobility for March 19–28, 2020 relative to matched days of a pre-COVID-19 reference week as the outcome measure of social distancing.", | |
| "Specify main exposure variables: county per capita income and county-level share of voters supporting President Trump in the 2016 election.", | |
| "Assemble covariates: county percentages of male, Black, and Hispanic residents; age distribution; share of adults with college degrees; shares of workers in retail, transportation, and health/education/social services; and rurality, plus indicators for each state.", | |
| "Estimate multivariable ordinary least squares regressions of percentage-point change in average mobility on the main exposures and covariates, including state fixed effects and age-decade controls.", | |
| "Interpret the regression coefficient for county Trump vote share as the change in social distancing (percentage-point change in mobility) associated with an interquartile increase in support for Trump." | |
| ], | |
| "models": "Cross-sectional ordinary least squares regression with state fixed effects for percentage-point change in average county mobility.", | |
| "outcome_variable": "Percentage-point change in average county mobility during March 19–28, 2020 relative to matched days in a pre-COVID-19 reference week (negative values indicate greater social distancing).", | |
| "independent_variables": "County-level share of voters supporting President Trump in the 2016 election (continuous, modeled per interquartile-range increase).", | |
| "control_variables": "Per capita income; percentages male, Black, and Hispanic; age distribution (percentage in each decade of life); percentage of adults with a college degree; county shares of employment in retail, transportation, and health/education/social services; percentage rural; and state fixed effects.", | |
| "tools_software": "not stated" | |
| }, | |
| "results": { | |
| "summary": "In multivariable models adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics, labor market composition, rurality, and state fixed effects, higher county-level support for President Trump in 2016 is significantly associated with reduced engagement in social distancing: an interquartile increase in Trump vote share corresponds to a 4.1 percentage point decrease in social distancing (less reduction in mobility).", | |
| "numerical_results": [ | |
| { | |
| "outcome_name": "Percentage-point change in average county mobility (social distancing) associated with Trump vote share", | |
| "value": 4.12, | |
| "unit": "percentage-point change in average mobility per interquartile increase in county Trump vote share", | |
| "effect_size": "OLS regression coefficient = 4.12", | |
| "confidence_interval": { | |
| "lower": 3.05, | |
| "upper": 5.19, | |
| "level": 95 | |
| }, | |
| "p_value": "<0.001", | |
| "statistical_significance": 1, | |
| "direction": "positive" | |
| } | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| "metadata": { | |
| "original_paper_id": "10.1101/2020.04.06.20055632", | |
| "original_paper_title": "Association of County-Level Socioeconomic and Political Characteristics with Engagement in Social Distancing for COVID-19", | |
| "original_paper_code": "not stated", | |
| "original_paper_data": "not stated" | |
| } | |
| } | |
| } | |