| { | |
| "original_study": { | |
| "claim": { | |
| "hypothesis": "The relationship between (in)security and election fraud should be in the form of an inverted U-shape. Fraud increases with violence up to a certain level, but then decreases again.", | |
| "hypothesis_location": "Section: MANIPULATION TACTICS; Subsection: Violence and Fraud; p. 58", | |
| "statement": "We find support…for the inverted U-shaped relationship between violence and fraud", | |
| "statement_location": "Section: CONCLUSION AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS; p. 74", | |
| "study_type": "Observational" | |
| }, | |
| "data": [ | |
| { | |
| "source": "International Election Commission", | |
| "wave_or_subset": "1-3", | |
| "sample_size": "27,163", | |
| "unit_of_analysis": "polling-station level", | |
| "access_details": "not stated", | |
| "notes": "After removing missing, sample size drops to 22,858." | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "source": "SIGACT reports", | |
| "wave_or_subset": "not stated", | |
| "sample_size": "not stated", | |
| "unit_of_analysis": "violent incident", | |
| "access_details": "not stated", | |
| "notes": "The authors discuss that they use this data, but do not describe the characteristics of the data (e.g. sample size)." | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "source": "National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment", | |
| "wave_or_subset": "2007", | |
| "sample_size": "20,576", | |
| "unit_of_analysis": "household", | |
| "access_details": "not stated", | |
| "notes": "" | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "source": "GTOPO30", | |
| "wave_or_subset": "NA", | |
| "sample_size": "NA", | |
| "unit_of_analysis": "elevation", | |
| "access_details": "Available at http://edc.usgs.gov/products/elevation/gtopo30/gtopo30.html. 2007.", | |
| "notes": "This is geological raster data for Afghanistan so there is not real sample size." | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "source": "LandScan population data", | |
| "wave_or_subset": "not stated", | |
| "sample_size": "not stated", | |
| "unit_of_analysis": "30 x 30 latitude/longitude cells", | |
| "access_details": "not stated", | |
| "notes": "They do not directly discuss access, but they leave the reference to the data: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, LandScan Global Population database, 2008. For this paper, the data is aggregated to the district level." | |
| } | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| "method": { | |
| "description": "Use logit (for the last-digit fraud measure) and OLS models (for the recount-based fraud measure) and regress fraud on violence and its squared term to test the inverted U-shaped prediction.", | |
| "steps": "(1) Clean, merge, and aggregate the data (remove missing, etc.) when necessary; (2) Group polling stations by district and apply the Beber–Scacco last-digit test to the total vote count; (3) Code a binary dependent variable for fraud; (4) Estimate the effects using logit and OLS models.", | |
| "models": "logit and OLS", | |
| "outcome_variable": "Fraud", | |
| "independent_variables": "Violence; Violence squared", | |
| "control_variables": "number of closed centres, economic development and geographic accessibility", | |
| "tools_software": "not stated" | |
| }, | |
| "results": { | |
| "summary": "Since the linear term of the violence measure receives a positive and significant coefficient, and the squared term a negative one, this implies the U-shaped prediction is credible.", | |
| "numerical_results": [ | |
| { | |
| "outcome_name": "Election Fraud (last-digit)", | |
| "value": "13.748", | |
| "unit": "not stated", | |
| "effect_size": "not stated", | |
| "confidence_interval": { | |
| "lower": "not stated", | |
| "upper": "not stated", | |
| "level": "not stated" | |
| }, | |
| "p_value": "<0.001", | |
| "statistical_significance": "0.1% level", | |
| "direction": "Negative", | |
| "notes": "Confidence intervals are not presented, but standard errors are presented instead (4.720)." | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "outcome_name": "Election Fraud (Recount)", | |
| "value": "1.438", | |
| "unit": "not stated", | |
| "effect_size": "not stated", | |
| "confidence_interval": { | |
| "lower": "not stated", | |
| "upper": "not stated", | |
| "level": "not stated" | |
| }, | |
| "p_value": "<0.001", | |
| "statistical_significance": "0.1% level", | |
| "direction": "Negative", | |
| "notes": "Confidence intervals are not presented, but standard errors are presented instead (0.375)." | |
| } | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| "metadata": { | |
| "original_paper_id": "10.1017/S0007123412000191", | |
| "original_paper_title": "Violence and Election Fraud: Evidence from Afghanistan", | |
| "original_paper_code": "http://dvn.iq.harvard.edu/dvn/dv/nilsw", | |
| "original_paper_data": "http://dvn.iq.harvard.edu/dvn/dv/nilsw" | |
| } | |
| } |