File size: 1,643 Bytes
76fac9c d6ddf0b 76fac9c d6ddf0b b32fce0 5d81099 d6ddf0b 76fac9c d6ddf0b 76fac9c d6ddf0b 76fac9c d6ddf0b 76fac9c d6ddf0b 76fac9c 3a8dcf2 76fac9c ba1a6a2 76fac9c ba1a6a2 76fac9c d6ddf0b 76fac9c d6ddf0b 76fac9c d6ddf0b 76fac9c ba1a6a2 76fac9c | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 | {
"market": "US",
"computedAt": "2026-08-07T23:55:36.316132+00:00",
"forecast": {
"models": {
"probit": {
"probability": 0.1522,
"probabilityRounded": 0.15,
"zone": "moderate",
"zoneLabel": "보통",
"spread": 0.78,
"horizon": "12M",
"timeKind": "leading",
"precisionNote": "Estrella-Mishkin 고정계수·표준오차 미산출(점추정)",
"asOf": "2026-08-07",
"seriesId": "T10Y3M",
"staleAfterDays": 7
},
"sahm": {
"value": 0.0,
"triggered": false,
"zone": "normal",
"zoneLabel": "정상",
"horizon": "realtime",
"timeKind": "trigger(동행)",
"asOf": "2026-07-01",
"seriesId": "UNRATE",
"staleAfterDays": 45
},
"lei": {
"level": 6223626.21,
"mom6m": null,
"signal": "expansion",
"signalLabel": "확장",
"availableComponents": 10,
"totalComponents": 10,
"overlapNote": "term-spread·initial-claims 내포(probit/Sahm 부분 상관)",
"horizon": "6-9M",
"timeKind": "leading",
"asOf": "2026-06-01",
"staleAfterDays": 75
},
"hamilton": {
"timeKind": "retrospective",
"horizon": "동행",
"staleAfterDays": 120,
"revisionLabel": "분기 GDP·수정 대상",
"asOf": "2026-04-01",
"seriesId": "A191RL1Q225SBEA",
"seriesSource": "FRED",
"separation": 0.087,
"contractionProb": null,
"converged": true,
"status": "레짐 분리 약함"
}
},
"missing": []
},
"rates": {
"spread10y3m": 0.78,
"sign": "+",
"curveShape": "steep_normal",
"curveShapeLabel": "가파른정상",
"curveSource": "NelsonSiegel.interpretation",
"asOf": "2026-08-07",
"seriesId": "T10Y3M",
"staleAfterDays": 7,
"missing": []
},
"gar": {
"status": "표본 부족·표시 보류"
},
"regimeBand": {
"status": "레짐 분리 약함",
"converged": true,
"separation": 0.087
}
} |