갱신: dashboards JSON (mapBuild)

landing/dashboards/macro.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
 "version": "v20",
-"asOf": "2026-08-24",
+"asOf": "2026-08-25",
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
 "phase": null,
@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@
 "quadrant": "deflation",
 "quadrantLabel": "디플레이션",
 "growth": "falling",
-"growthSignal": -20.0,
+"growthSignal": -13.0,
 "inflation": "falling",
 "inflationSignal": -0.13,
 "assetImplication": {
@@ -32,19 +32,19 @@
 "confidence": "medium",
 "description": "성장 둔화 + 물가 하락 — 장기 국채 최적, 주식·원자재 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-08-23T22:12:59.615928+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-08-24T22:18:53.973169+00:00"
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
 "phase": "expansion",
 "phaseLabel": "확장",
-"confidence": "medium",
+"confidence": "low",
 "status": "observed",
 "observedInputs": 7,
 "totalInputs": 8,
 "signals": [
-"HY 스프레드 안정 (275bp)",
-"수익률곡선 정상 (+0.50%)",
+"HY 스프레드 안정 (270bp)",
+"수익률곡선 평탄화 (+0.46%)",
 "금 급등 (YoY +23.0%)",
 "CPI 3.5% — 인플레 동반 확장"
 ],
@@ -54,7 +54,19 @@
 "defensive": "neutral",
 "low": "neutral"
 },
-"transition": null,
+"transition": {
+"from": "expansion",
+"to": "slowdown",
+"progress": 25,
+"triggered": [
+"term_spread_flattening"
+],
+"pending": [
+"hy_spread_widening",
+"bei_overheating",
+"vix_rising"
+]
+},
 "quadrant": {
 "quadrant": "reflation",
 "quadrantLabel": "리플레이션",
@@ -73,15 +85,15 @@
 "confidence": "high",
 "description": "성장 가속 + 물가 상승 — 원자재·EM 주식·TIPS 유리, 명목채 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-08-23T22:12:59.724639+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-08-24T22:18:54.078992+00:00"
 },
 "transmission": {
 "target": "KR:market",
 "stockCode": null,
 "market": "KR",
 "sectorKey": null,
-"asOf": "2026-08-24",
-"dataAsOf": "2026-08-21",
+"asOf": "2026-08-25",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-08-24",
 "drivers": [
 {
 "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
@@ -103,17 +115,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "FRED",
 "sourceSeriesId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
-"date": "2026-08-20",
-"value": 2.75,
-"previousDate": "2026-08-19",
-"previousValue": 2.73,
-"change": 0.020000000000000018,
+"date": "2026-08-21",
+"value": 2.7,
+"previousDate": "2026-08-20",
+"previousValue": 2.75,
+"change": -0.04999999999999982,
 "unit": "%p",
 "artifactPath": "macro/fred/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
 "status": "observed"
 },
-"signal": "rising"
+"signal": "falling"
 },
 {
 "id": "BASE_RATE",
@@ -135,9 +147,9 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "BASE_RATE",
-"date": "2026-08-21",
+"date": "2026-08-22",
 "value": 2.75,
-"previousDate": "2026-08-20",
+"previousDate": "2026-08-21",
 "previousValue": 2.75,
 "change": 0.0,
 "unit": "%",
@@ -263,11 +275,11 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "USDKRW",
-"date": "2026-08-21",
-"value": 1386.5,
-"previousDate": "2026-08-20",
-"previousValue": 1392.6,
-"change": -6.099999999999909,
+"date": "2026-08-24",
+"value": 1382.4,
+"previousDate": "2026-08-21",
+"previousValue": 1386.5,
+"change": -4.099999999999909,
 "unit": "원",
 "artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
@@ -480,8 +492,8 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "OBS",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:hy-risk-premium",
-"driverSignal": "rising",
-"impactDirection": "headwind",
+"driverSignal": "falling",
+"impactDirection": "tailwind",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "observed",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
 "matchedCompanyRequirements": [],
@@ -580,8 +592,8 @@
 "id": "driver:BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "driverId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-08-20",
-"value": 2.75,
+"date": "2026-08-21",
+"value": 2.7,
 "unit": "%p",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
 },
@@ -589,7 +601,7 @@
 "id": "driver:BASE_RATE",
 "driverId": "BASE_RATE",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-08-21",
+"date": "2026-08-22",
 "value": 2.75,
 "unit": "%",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE"
@@ -625,8 +637,8 @@
 "id": "driver:USDKRW",
 "driverId": "USDKRW",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-08-21",
-"value": 1386.5,
+"date": "2026-08-24",
+"value": 1382.4,
 "unit": "원",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
@@ -654,15 +666,15 @@
 "version": "1"
 },
 "time": {
-"asOf": "2026-08-24",
-"dataAsOf": "2026-08-21",
+"asOf": "2026-08-25",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-08-24",
 "period": null,
-"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-08-24"
+"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-08-25"
 },
 "status": "partial",
 "conclusion": {
-"label": "거시 전파 경로 혼재",
-"summary": "거시 전파 경로 혼재입니다. 거시 관측 6/6개를 확인했지만 개별 회사 재무 근거에는 아직 바인딩되지 않았습니다."
+"label": "거시 순풍 경로 우세",
+"summary": "거시 순풍 경로 우세입니다. 거시 관측 6/6개를 확인했지만 개별 회사 재무 근거에는 아직 바인딩되지 않았습니다."
 },
 "confidence": {
 "level": "medium",
@@ -673,10 +685,10 @@
 {
 "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "label": "미국 HY 스프레드",
-"value": 2.75,
+"value": 2.7,
 "unit": "%p",
-"signal": "rising",
-"change": 0.020000000000000018,
+"signal": "falling",
+"change": -0.04999999999999982,
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
 },
 {
@@ -718,10 +730,10 @@
 {
 "id": "USDKRW",
 "label": "원/달러",
-"value": 1386.5,
+"value": 1382.4,
 "unit": "원",
 "signal": "falling",
-"change": -6.099999999999909,
+"change": -4.099999999999909,
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
 ],
@@ -732,7 +744,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-08-20",
+"observedAt": "2026-08-21",
 "detail": "미국 HY 스프레드 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -740,7 +752,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-08-21",
+"observedAt": "2026-08-22",
 "detail": "한국 기준금리 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -772,7 +784,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-08-21",
+"observedAt": "2026-08-24",
 "detail": "원/달러 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 }
 ],
@@ -966,7 +978,7 @@
 "regime": {
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
-"computedAt": "2026-08-23T22:13:22.239087+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-08-24T22:19:10.501635+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "lei": {
@@ -1008,19 +1020,19 @@
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
-"computedAt": "2026-08-23T22:13:22.497804+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-08-24T22:19:10.764174+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "probit": {
-"probability": 0.1406,
+"probability": 0.1449,
 "probabilityRounded": 0.15,
 "zone": "low",
 "zoneLabel": "낮음",
-"spread": 0.86,
+"spread": 0.83,
 "horizon": "12M",
 "timeKind": "leading",
 "precisionNote": "Estrella-Mishkin 고정계수·표준오차 미산출(점추정)",
-"asOf": "2026-08-21",
+"asOf": "2026-08-24",
 "seriesId": "T10Y3M",
 "staleAfterDays": 7
 },
@@ -1036,7 +1048,7 @@
 "staleAfterDays": 45
 },
 "lei": {
-"level": 6223654.69,
+"level": 6223655.22,
 "mom6m": null,
 "signal": "expansion",
 "signalLabel": "확장",
@@ -1065,12 +1077,12 @@
 "missing": []
 },
 "rates": {
-"spread10y3m": 0.86,
+"spread10y3m": 0.83,
 "sign": "+",
 "curveShape": "steep_normal",
 "curveShapeLabel": "가파른정상",
 "curveSource": "NelsonSiegel.interpretation",
-"asOf": "2026-08-21",
+"asOf": "2026-08-24",
 "seriesId": "T10Y3M",
 "staleAfterDays": 7,
 "missing": []