갱신: dashboards JSON (mapBuild)

landing/dashboards/macro.json

@@ -1,38 +1,21 @@
 {
 "version": "v20",
-"asOf": "2026-08-07",
+"asOf": "2026-08-08",
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
 "phase": null,
 "phaseLabel": "판정불가",
 "confidence": "unavailable",
 "status": "unavailable",
-"observedInputs": 1,
+"observedInputs": 0,
 "totalInputs": 8,
 "signals": [
-"사이클 판정 근거 부족 (1/8)"
+"사이클 판정 근거 부족 (0/8)"
 ],
 "sectorStrategy": {},
 "transition": null,
-"quadrant": {
-"quadrant": "deflation",
-"quadrantLabel": "디플레이션",
-"growth": "falling",
-"growthSignal": -20.0,
-"inflation": "falling",
-"inflationSignal": -0.13,
-"assetImplication": {
-"equity": "underweight",
-"bond": "overweight",
-"commodity": "underweight",
-"gold": "neutral",
-"tips": "underweight",
-"cash": "neutral"
-},
-"confidence": "medium",
-"description": "성장 둔화 + 물가 하락 — 장기 국채 최적, 주식·원자재 불리"
-},
-"computedAt": "2026-08-07T01:28:54.847554+00:00"
+"quadrant": null,
+"computedAt": "2026-08-07T23:55:30.247151+00:00"
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
@@ -43,8 +26,8 @@
 "observedInputs": 7,
 "totalInputs": 8,
 "signals": [
-"HY 스프레드 안정 (275bp)",
-"수익률곡선 평탄화 (+0.44%)",
+"HY 스프레드 안정 (271bp)",
+"수익률곡선 평탄화 (+0.46%)",
 "금 급등 (YoY +27.9%)",
 "CPI 3.7% — 인플레 동반 확장"
 ],
@@ -85,14 +68,14 @@
 "confidence": "high",
 "description": "성장 가속 + 물가 상승 — 원자재·EM 주식·TIPS 유리, 명목채 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-08-07T01:28:54.938740+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-08-07T23:55:30.352230+00:00"
 },
 "transmission": {
 "target": "KR:market",
 "stockCode": null,
 "market": "KR",
 "sectorKey": null,
-"asOf": "2026-08-07",
+"asOf": "2026-08-08",
 "dataAsOf": "2026-08-06",
 "drivers": [
 {
@@ -115,17 +98,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "FRED",
 "sourceSeriesId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
-"date": "2026-08-05",
-"value": 2.75,
-"previousDate": "2026-08-04",
-"previousValue": 2.73,
-"change": 0.020000000000000018,
+"date": "2026-08-06",
+"value": 2.71,
+"previousDate": "2026-08-05",
+"previousValue": 2.75,
+"change": -0.040000000000000036,
 "unit": "%p",
 "artifactPath": "macro/fred/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
 "status": "observed"
 },
-"signal": "rising"
+"signal": "falling"
 },
 {
 "id": "BASE_RATE",
@@ -147,17 +130,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "BASE_RATE",
-"date": "2026-08-04",
-"value": 2.75,
-"previousDate": "2026-08-03",
-"previousValue": 2.75,
-"change": 0.0,
+"date": null,
+"value": null,
+"previousDate": null,
+"previousValue": null,
+"change": null,
 "unit": "%",
 "artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
-"status": "observed"
+"status": "missing"
 },
-"signal": "flat"
+"signal": "missing"
 },
 {
 "id": "CPI",
@@ -179,17 +162,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "CPI",
-"date": "2026-07-01",
-"value": 119.77,
-"previousDate": "2026-06-01",
-"previousValue": 119.99,
-"change": -0.21999999999999886,
+"date": null,
+"value": null,
+"previousDate": null,
+"previousValue": null,
+"change": null,
 "unit": "%",
 "artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
-"status": "observed"
+"status": "missing"
 },
-"signal": "falling"
+"signal": "missing"
 },
 {
 "id": "DCOILWTICO",
@@ -243,17 +226,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "EXPORT",
-"date": "2026-06-01",
-"value": 112371.0,
-"previousDate": "2026-05-01",
-"previousValue": 94342.2,
-"change": 18028.800000000003,
+"date": null,
+"value": null,
+"previousDate": null,
+"previousValue": null,
+"change": null,
 "unit": "%",
 "artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
-"status": "observed"
+"status": "missing"
 },
-"signal": "rising"
+"signal": "missing"
 },
 {
 "id": "USDKRW",
@@ -275,17 +258,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "USDKRW",
-"date": "2026-08-06",
-"value": 1423.8,
-"previousDate": "2026-08-05",
-"previousValue": 1424.5,
-"change": -0.7000000000000455,
+"date": null,
+"value": null,
+"previousDate": null,
+"previousValue": null,
+"change": null,
 "unit": "원",
 "artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
-"status": "observed"
+"status": "missing"
 },
-"signal": "falling"
+"signal": "missing"
 }
 ],
 "edges": [
@@ -325,8 +308,8 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "PRIOR",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:fx-export-revenue",
-"driverSignal": "falling",
-"impactDirection": "twoSided",
+"driverSignal": "missing",
+"impactDirection": "unresolved",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "sectorPrior",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
 "matchedCompanyRequirements": [],
@@ -369,8 +352,8 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "OBS",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:export-demand-revenue",
-"driverSignal": "rising",
-"impactDirection": "tailwind",
+"driverSignal": "missing",
+"impactDirection": "unresolved",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "observed",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
 "matchedCompanyRequirements": [],
@@ -410,7 +393,7 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "TPL",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:rate-debt-interest",
-"driverSignal": "flat",
+"driverSignal": "missing",
 "impactDirection": "unresolved",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "template",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
@@ -451,7 +434,7 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "PRIOR",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:rate-bank-margin",
-"driverSignal": "flat",
+"driverSignal": "missing",
 "impactDirection": "unresolved",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "sectorPrior",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
@@ -492,8 +475,8 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "OBS",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:hy-risk-premium",
-"driverSignal": "rising",
-"impactDirection": "headwind",
+"driverSignal": "falling",
+"impactDirection": "tailwind",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "observed",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
 "matchedCompanyRequirements": [],
@@ -579,8 +562,8 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "TPL",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:cpi-utility-tariff",
-"driverSignal": "falling",
-"impactDirection": "twoSided",
+"driverSignal": "missing",
+"impactDirection": "unresolved",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "template",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
 "matchedCompanyRequirements": [],
@@ -592,26 +575,26 @@
 "id": "driver:BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "driverId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-08-05",
-"value": 2.75,
+"date": "2026-08-06",
+"value": 2.71,
 "unit": "%p",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
 },
 {
 "id": "driver:BASE_RATE",
 "driverId": "BASE_RATE",
-"status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-08-04",
-"value": 2.75,
+"status": "locked",
+"date": null,
+"value": null,
 "unit": "%",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE"
 },
 {
 "id": "driver:CPI",
 "driverId": "CPI",
-"status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-07-01",
-"value": 119.77,
+"status": "locked",
+"date": null,
+"value": null,
 "unit": "%",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#CPI"
 },
@@ -627,18 +610,18 @@
 {
 "id": "driver:EXPORT",
 "driverId": "EXPORT",
-"status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-06-01",
-"value": 112371.0,
+"status": "locked",
+"date": null,
+"value": null,
 "unit": "%",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#EXPORT"
 },
 {
 "id": "driver:USDKRW",
 "driverId": "USDKRW",
-"status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-08-06",
-"value": 1423.8,
+"status": "locked",
+"date": null,
+"value": null,
 "unit": "원",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
@@ -654,7 +637,32 @@
 "ui/packages/contracts/src/macro.ts::MACRO_SERIES",
 "macro/{ecos,fred}/observations.parquet"
 ],
-"missing": [],
+"missing": [
+{
+"id": "driver.BASE_RATE.latestObservation",
+"status": "missing",
+"reason": "latest macro observation unavailable: KeyError",
+"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE"
+},
+{
+"id": "driver.CPI.latestObservation",
+"status": "missing",
+"reason": "latest macro observation unavailable: KeyError",
+"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#CPI"
+},
+{
+"id": "driver.EXPORT.latestObservation",
+"status": "missing",
+"reason": "latest macro observation unavailable: KeyError",
+"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#EXPORT"
+},
+{
+"id": "driver.USDKRW.latestObservation",
+"status": "missing",
+"reason": "latest macro observation unavailable: KeyError",
+"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
+}
+],
 "contextGaps": [],
 "product": {
 "schemaVersion": 1,
@@ -666,48 +674,30 @@
 "version": "1"
 },
 "time": {
-"asOf": "2026-08-07",
+"asOf": "2026-08-08",
 "dataAsOf": "2026-08-06",
 "period": null,
-"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-08-07"
+"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-08-08"
 },
 "status": "partial",
 "conclusion": {
-"label": "거시 전파 경로 혼재",
-"summary": "거시 전파 경로 혼재입니다. 거시 관측 6/6개를 확인했지만 개별 회사 재무 근거에는 아직 바인딩되지 않았습니다."
+"label": "거시 순풍 경로 우세",
+"summary": "거시 순풍 경로 우세입니다. 거시 관측 2/6개를 확인했지만 개별 회사 재무 근거에는 아직 바인딩되지 않았습니다."
 },
 "confidence": {
-"level": "medium",
-"score": 60.0,
+"level": "low",
+"score": 20.0,
 "method": "macroObservationAndCompanyEvidenceCoverage"
 },
 "drivers": [
 {
 "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "label": "미국 HY 스프레드",
-"value": 2.75,
+"value": 2.71,
 "unit": "%p",
-"signal": "rising",
-"change": 0.020000000000000018,
-"sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
-},
-{
-"id": "BASE_RATE",
-"label": "한국 기준금리",
-"value": 2.75,
-"unit": "%",
-"signal": "flat",
-"change": 0.0,
-"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE"
-},
-{
-"id": "CPI",
-"label": "소비자물가 YoY",
-"value": 119.77,
-"unit": "%",
 "signal": "falling",
-"change": -0.21999999999999886,
-"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#CPI"
+"change": -0.040000000000000036,
+"sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
 },
 {
 "id": "DCOILWTICO",
@@ -717,24 +707,6 @@
 "signal": "falling",
 "change": -4.200000000000003,
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#DCOILWTICO"
-},
-{
-"id": "EXPORT",
-"label": "수출 YoY",
-"value": 112371.0,
-"unit": "%",
-"signal": "rising",
-"change": 18028.800000000003,
-"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#EXPORT"
-},
-{
-"id": "USDKRW",
-"label": "원/달러",
-"value": 1423.8,
-"unit": "원",
-"signal": "falling",
-"change": -0.7000000000000455,
-"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
 ],
 "claims": [],
@@ -744,48 +716,16 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-08-05",
+"observedAt": "2026-08-06",
 "detail": "미국 HY 스프레드 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
-"id": "macro.driver.BASE_RATE",
-"kind": "macroObservation",
-"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE",
-"status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-08-04",
-"detail": "한국 기준금리 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
-},
-{
-"id": "macro.driver.CPI",
-"kind": "macroObservation",
-"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#CPI",
-"status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-07-01",
-"detail": "소비자물가 YoY 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
-},
-{
 "id": "macro.driver.DCOILWTICO",
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#DCOILWTICO",
 "status": "observed",
 "observedAt": "2026-08-03",
 "detail": "WTI 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
-},
-{
-"id": "macro.driver.EXPORT",
-"kind": "macroObservation",
-"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#EXPORT",
-"status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-06-01",
-"detail": "수출 YoY 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
-},
-{
-"id": "macro.driver.USDKRW",
-"kind": "macroObservation",
-"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW",
-"status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-08-06",
-"detail": "원/달러 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 }
 ],
 "assumptions": [
@@ -797,6 +737,30 @@
 ],
 "gaps": [
 {
+"id": "driver.BASE_RATE.latestObservation",
+"status": "missing",
+"reason": "latest macro observation unavailable: KeyError",
+"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE"
+},
+{
+"id": "driver.CPI.latestObservation",
+"status": "missing",
+"reason": "latest macro observation unavailable: KeyError",
+"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#CPI"
+},
+{
+"id": "driver.EXPORT.latestObservation",
+"status": "missing",
+"reason": "latest macro observation unavailable: KeyError",
+"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#EXPORT"
+},
+{
+"id": "driver.USDKRW.latestObservation",
+"status": "missing",
+"reason": "latest macro observation unavailable: KeyError",
+"sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
+},
+{
 "id": "macro.companyBinding",
 "status": "partial",
 "reason": "시장 또는 섹터 경로이며 개별 회사 재무 근거에 바인딩되지 않았습니다.",
@@ -978,18 +942,9 @@
 "regime": {
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
-"computedAt": "2026-08-07T01:28:59.662489+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-08-07T23:55:36.269512+00:00",
 "forecast": {
-"models": {
-"lei": {
-"cliMomentum": 1.5,
-"cliLevel": 130.2,
-"growthApprox": 1.9,
-"growthLabel": "확장",
-"asOf": "2026-06-01",
-"staleAfterDays": 75
-}
-},
+"models": {},
 "missing": [
 {
 "id": "probit",
@@ -1002,6 +957,11 @@
 "reason": "US 전용"
 },
 {
+"id": "lei",
+"status": "데이터부족·표시 보류",
+"reason": "CLI composite 미산출"
+},
+{
 "id": "hamilton",
 "status": "단위 parity 미확정·표시 보류",
 "reason": "GROWTH↔A191RL1Q225SBEA 단위 동일성 미확정"
@@ -1020,35 +980,35 @@
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
-"computedAt": "2026-08-07T01:28:59.875280+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-08-07T23:55:36.316132+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "probit": {
-"probability": 0.1507,
+"probability": 0.1522,
 "probabilityRounded": 0.15,
 "zone": "moderate",
 "zoneLabel": "보통",
-"spread": 0.79,
+"spread": 0.78,
 "horizon": "12M",
 "timeKind": "leading",
 "precisionNote": "Estrella-Mishkin 고정계수·표준오차 미산출(점추정)",
-"asOf": "2026-08-06",
+"asOf": "2026-08-07",
 "seriesId": "T10Y3M",
 "staleAfterDays": 7
 },
 "sahm": {
-"value": 0.07,
+"value": 0.0,
 "triggered": false,
 "zone": "normal",
 "zoneLabel": "정상",
 "horizon": "realtime",
 "timeKind": "trigger(동행)",
-"asOf": "2026-06-01",
+"asOf": "2026-07-01",
 "seriesId": "UNRATE",
 "staleAfterDays": 45
 },
 "lei": {
-"level": 6223625.57,
+"level": 6223626.21,
 "mom6m": null,
 "signal": "expansion",
 "signalLabel": "확장",
@@ -1077,33 +1037,18 @@
 "missing": []
 },
 "rates": {
-"spread10y3m": 0.79,
+"spread10y3m": 0.78,
 "sign": "+",
 "curveShape": "steep_normal",
 "curveShapeLabel": "가파른정상",
 "curveSource": "NelsonSiegel.interpretation",
-"asOf": "2026-08-06",
+"asOf": "2026-08-07",
 "seriesId": "T10Y3M",
 "staleAfterDays": 7,
 "missing": []
 },
 "gar": {
-"gar5": -0.46,
-"gar25": 1.31,
-"median": 2.08,
-"gar75": 2.84,
-"gar95": 4.67,
-"skewness": 0.05,
-"tailRisk": "moderate",
-"tailRiskLabel": "보통",
-"currentFCI": -0.277,
-"observations": 98,
-"horizon": 4,
-"timeKind": "forward",
-"seriesNote": "FCI(NFCI 대용) 조건부 GDP 성장률 분위(점추��� 아닌 조건부 분포)",
-"asOf": "2026-04-01",
-"staleAfterDays": 120,
-"revisionLabel": "분기 GDP·수정 대상"
+"status": "표본 부족·표시 보류"
 },
 "regimeBand": {
 "status": "레짐 분리 약함",