갱신: dashboards JSON (mapBuild)

landing/dashboards/macro.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
 "version": "v20",
-"asOf": "2026-07-28",
+"asOf": "2026-07-29",
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
 "phase": "recovery",
@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@
 "quadrant": "stagflation",
 "quadrantLabel": "스태그플레이션",
 "growth": "falling",
-"growthSignal": -20.0,
+"growthSignal": -16.0,
 "inflation": "rising",
 "inflationSignal": 0.52,
 "assetImplication": {
@@ -34,7 +34,7 @@
 "confidence": "high",
 "description": "성장 둔화 + 물가 상승 — 금·TIPS·현금 방어, 주식·채권 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-07-27T23:13:54.686999+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-07-28T23:14:10.541737+00:00"
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
@@ -42,8 +42,8 @@
 "phaseLabel": "확장",
 "confidence": "low",
 "signals": [
-"HY 스프레드 안정 (279bp)",
-"수익률곡선 평탄화 (+0.34%)",
+"HY 스프레드 안정 (281bp)",
+"수익률곡선 평탄화 (+0.35%)",
 "금 급등 (YoY +27.9%)",
 "CPI 3.7% — 인플레 동반 확장"
 ],
@@ -84,15 +84,15 @@
 "confidence": "high",
 "description": "성장 가속 + 물가 상승 — 원자재·EM 주식·TIPS 유리, 명목채 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-07-27T23:13:54.787617+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-07-28T23:14:10.645082+00:00"
 },
 "transmission": {
 "target": "KR:market",
 "stockCode": null,
 "market": "KR",
 "sectorKey": null,
-"asOf": "2026-07-28",
-"dataAsOf": "2026-07-27",
+"asOf": "2026-07-29",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-07-28",
 "drivers": [
 {
 "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
@@ -114,10 +114,10 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "FRED",
 "sourceSeriesId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
-"date": "2026-07-24",
-"value": 2.79,
-"previousDate": "2026-07-23",
-"previousValue": 2.77,
+"date": "2026-07-27",
+"value": 2.81,
+"previousDate": "2026-07-24",
+"previousValue": 2.79,
 "change": 0.020000000000000018,
 "unit": "%p",
 "artifactPath": "macro/fred/observations.parquet",
@@ -146,9 +146,9 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "BASE_RATE",
-"date": "2026-07-25",
+"date": "2026-07-26",
 "value": 2.75,
-"previousDate": "2026-07-24",
+"previousDate": "2026-07-25",
 "previousValue": 2.75,
 "change": 0.0,
 "unit": "%",
@@ -274,17 +274,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "USDKRW",
-"date": "2026-07-27",
-"value": 1468.5,
-"previousDate": "2026-07-24",
-"previousValue": 1466.6,
-"change": 1.900000000000091,
+"date": "2026-07-28",
+"value": 1462.5,
+"previousDate": "2026-07-27",
+"previousValue": 1468.5,
+"change": -6.0,
 "unit": "원",
 "artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
 "status": "observed"
 },
-"signal": "rising"
+"signal": "falling"
 }
 ],
 "edges": [
@@ -324,7 +324,7 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "PRIOR",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:fx-export-revenue",
-"driverSignal": "rising",
+"driverSignal": "falling",
 "impactDirection": "twoSided",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "sectorPrior",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
@@ -591,8 +591,8 @@
 "id": "driver:BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "driverId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-07-24",
-"value": 2.79,
+"date": "2026-07-27",
+"value": 2.81,
 "unit": "%p",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
 },
@@ -600,7 +600,7 @@
 "id": "driver:BASE_RATE",
 "driverId": "BASE_RATE",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-07-25",
+"date": "2026-07-26",
 "value": 2.75,
 "unit": "%",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE"
@@ -636,8 +636,8 @@
 "id": "driver:USDKRW",
 "driverId": "USDKRW",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-07-27",
-"value": 1468.5,
+"date": "2026-07-28",
+"value": 1462.5,
 "unit": "원",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
@@ -665,10 +665,10 @@
 "version": "1"
 },
 "time": {
-"asOf": "2026-07-28",
-"dataAsOf": "2026-07-27",
+"asOf": "2026-07-29",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-07-28",
 "period": null,
-"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-07-28"
+"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-07-29"
 },
 "status": "partial",
 "conclusion": {
@@ -684,7 +684,7 @@
 {
 "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "label": "미국 HY 스프레드",
-"value": 2.79,
+"value": 2.81,
 "unit": "%p",
 "signal": "rising",
 "change": 0.020000000000000018,
@@ -729,10 +729,10 @@
 {
 "id": "USDKRW",
 "label": "원/달러",
-"value": 1468.5,
+"value": 1462.5,
 "unit": "원",
-"signal": "rising",
-"change": 1.900000000000091,
+"signal": "falling",
+"change": -6.0,
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
 ],
@@ -743,7 +743,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-07-24",
+"observedAt": "2026-07-27",
 "detail": "미국 HY 스프레드 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -751,7 +751,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-07-25",
+"observedAt": "2026-07-26",
 "detail": "한국 기준금리 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -783,7 +783,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-07-27",
+"observedAt": "2026-07-28",
 "detail": "원/달러 최신 관측과 ��전 변화"
 }
 ],
@@ -977,14 +977,14 @@
 "regime": {
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
-"computedAt": "2026-07-27T23:14:00.923544+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-07-28T23:14:26.893361+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "lei": {
 "cliMomentum": 1.3,
 "cliLevel": 128.8,
-"growthApprox": null,
-"growthLabel": null,
+"growthApprox": 1.3,
+"growthLabel": "확장",
 "asOf": "2026-05-01",
 "staleAfterDays": 75
 }
@@ -1019,19 +1019,19 @@
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
-"computedAt": "2026-07-27T23:14:00.980106+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-07-28T23:14:27.153494+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "probit": {
-"probability": 0.166,
+"probability": 0.1629,
 "probabilityRounded": 0.15,
 "zone": "moderate",
 "zoneLabel": "보통",
-"spread": 0.69,
+"spread": 0.71,
 "horizon": "12M",
 "timeKind": "leading",
 "precisionNote": "Estrella-Mishkin 고정계수·표준오차 미산출(점추정)",
-"asOf": "2026-07-27",
+"asOf": "2026-07-28",
 "seriesId": "T10Y3M",
 "staleAfterDays": 7
 },
@@ -1047,7 +1047,7 @@
 "staleAfterDays": 45
 },
 "lei": {
-"level": 6231489.92,
+"level": 6231498.22,
 "mom6m": null,
 "signal": "expansion",
 "signalLabel": "확장",
@@ -1076,18 +1076,33 @@
 "missing": []
 },
 "rates": {
-"spread10y3m": 0.69,
+"spread10y3m": 0.71,
 "sign": "+",
 "curveShape": "steep_normal",
 "curveShapeLabel": "가파른정상",
 "curveSource": "NelsonSiegel.interpretation",
-"asOf": "2026-07-27",
+"asOf": "2026-07-28",
 "seriesId": "T10Y3M",
 "staleAfterDays": 7,
 "missing": []
 },
 "gar": {
-"status": "표본 부족·표시 보류"
+"gar5": -0.46,
+"gar25": 1.31,
+"median": 2.08,
+"gar75": 2.84,
+"gar95": 4.67,
+"skewness": 0.05,
+"tailRisk": "moderate",
+"tailRiskLabel": "보통",
+"currentFCI": -0.277,
+"observations": 98,
+"horizon": 4,
+"timeKind": "forward",
+"seriesNote": "FCI(NFCI 대용) 조건부 GDP 성장률 분위(점추정 아닌 조건부 분포)",
+"asOf": "2026-04-01",
+"staleAfterDays": 120,
+"revisionLabel": "분기 GDP·수정 대상"
 },
 "regimeBand": {
 "status": "레짐 분리 약함",