갱신: dashboards JSON (mapBuild)

landing/dashboards/macro.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
 "version": "v20",
-"asOf": "2026-10-16",
+"asOf": "2026-10-17",
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
 "phase": null,
@@ -32,7 +32,7 @@
 "confidence": "high",
 "description": "성장 둔화 + 물가 상승 — 금·TIPS·현금 방어, 주식·채권 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-10-16T00:13:54.587870+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-10-17T00:13:07.574332+00:00"
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
@@ -43,9 +43,8 @@
 "observedInputs": 7,
 "totalInputs": 8,
 "signals": [
-"HY 스프레드 안정 (325bp)",
-"수익률곡선 평탄화 (+0.33%)",
-"금 급등 (YoY +22.1%)",
+"HY 스프레드 안정 (323bp)",
+"수익률곡선 평탄화 (+0.35%)",
 "CPI 4.0% — 물가 과열, 둔화 전조"
 ],
 "sectorStrategy": {
@@ -54,18 +53,7 @@
 "high": "underweight",
 "low": "neutral"
 },
-"transition": {
-"from": "slowdown",
-"to": "contraction",
-"progress": 33,
-"triggered": [
-"gold_surging"
-],
-"pending": [
-"vix_spiking",
-"term_spread_inverted"
-]
-},
+"transition": null,
 "quadrant": {
 "quadrant": "reflation",
 "quadrantLabel": "리플레이션",
@@ -84,15 +72,15 @@
 "confidence": "high",
 "description": "성장 가속 + 물가 상승 — 원자재·EM 주식·TIPS 유리, 명목채 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-10-16T00:13:54.696316+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-10-17T00:13:07.684399+00:00"
 },
 "transmission": {
 "target": "KR:market",
 "stockCode": null,
 "market": "KR",
 "sectorKey": null,
-"asOf": "2026-10-16",
-"dataAsOf": "2026-10-15",
+"asOf": "2026-10-17",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-10-16",
 "drivers": [
 {
 "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
@@ -114,17 +102,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "FRED",
 "sourceSeriesId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
-"date": "2026-10-14",
-"value": 3.25,
-"previousDate": "2026-10-13",
-"previousValue": 3.16,
-"change": 0.08999999999999986,
+"date": "2026-10-15",
+"value": 3.23,
+"previousDate": "2026-10-14",
+"previousValue": 3.25,
+"change": -0.020000000000000018,
 "unit": "%p",
 "artifactPath": "macro/fred/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
 "status": "observed"
 },
-"signal": "rising"
+"signal": "falling"
 },
 {
 "id": "BASE_RATE",
@@ -274,17 +262,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "USDKRW",
-"date": "2026-10-15",
-"value": 1344.6,
-"previousDate": "2026-10-14",
-"previousValue": 1338.3,
-"change": 6.2999999999999545,
+"date": "2026-10-16",
+"value": 1331.4,
+"previousDate": "2026-10-15",
+"previousValue": 1344.6,
+"change": -13.199999999999818,
 "unit": "원",
 "artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
 "status": "observed"
 },
-"signal": "rising"
+"signal": "falling"
 }
 ],
 "edges": [
@@ -324,7 +312,7 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "PRIOR",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:fx-export-revenue",
-"driverSignal": "rising",
+"driverSignal": "falling",
 "impactDirection": "twoSided",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "sectorPrior",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
@@ -491,8 +479,8 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "OBS",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:hy-risk-premium",
-"driverSignal": "rising",
-"impactDirection": "headwind",
+"driverSignal": "falling",
+"impactDirection": "tailwind",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "observed",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
 "matchedCompanyRequirements": [],
@@ -591,8 +579,8 @@
 "id": "driver:BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "driverId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-10-14",
-"value": 3.25,
+"date": "2026-10-15",
+"value": 3.23,
 "unit": "%p",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
 },
@@ -636,8 +624,8 @@
 "id": "driver:USDKRW",
 "driverId": "USDKRW",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-10-15",
-"value": 1344.6,
+"date": "2026-10-16",
+"value": 1331.4,
 "unit": "원",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
@@ -665,15 +653,15 @@
 "version": "1"
 },
 "time": {
-"asOf": "2026-10-16",
-"dataAsOf": "2026-10-15",
+"asOf": "2026-10-17",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-10-16",
 "period": null,
-"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-10-16"
+"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-10-17"
 },
 "status": "partial",
 "conclusion": {
-"label": "거시 전파 경로 혼재",
-"summary": "거시 전파 경로 혼재입니다. 거시 관측 6/6개를 확인했지만 개별 회사 재무 근거에는 아직 바인딩되지 않았습니다."
+"label": "거시 순풍 경로 우세",
+"summary": "거시 순풍 경로 우세입니다. 거시 관측 6/6개를 확인했지만 개별 회사 재무 근거에는 아직 바인딩되지 않았습니다."
 },
 "confidence": {
 "level": "medium",
@@ -684,10 +672,10 @@
 {
 "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "label": "미국 HY 스프레드",
-"value": 3.25,
+"value": 3.23,
 "unit": "%p",
-"signal": "rising",
-"change": 0.08999999999999986,
+"signal": "falling",
+"change": -0.020000000000000018,
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
 },
 {
@@ -729,10 +717,10 @@
 {
 "id": "USDKRW",
 "label": "원/달러",
-"value": 1344.6,
+"value": 1331.4,
 "unit": "원",
-"signal": "rising",
-"change": 6.2999999999999545,
+"signal": "falling",
+"change": -13.199999999999818,
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
 ],
@@ -743,7 +731,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-10-14",
+"observedAt": "2026-10-15",
 "detail": "미국 HY 스프레드 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -783,7 +771,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-10-15",
+"observedAt": "2026-10-16",
 "detail": "원/달러 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 }
 ],
@@ -977,7 +965,7 @@
 "regime": {
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
-"computedAt": "2026-10-16T00:13:58.890233+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-10-17T00:13:09.493865+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "lei": {
@@ -1019,19 +1007,19 @@
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
-"computedAt": "2026-10-16T00:13:59.152056+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-10-17T00:13:09.768132+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "probit": {
-"probability": 0.1463,
+"probability": 0.1449,
 "probabilityRounded": 0.15,
 "zone": "low",
 "zoneLabel": "낮음",
-"spread": 0.82,
+"spread": 0.83,
 "horizon": "12M",
 "timeKind": "leading",
 "precisionNote": "Estrella-Mishkin 고정계수·표준오차 미산출(점추정)",
-"asOf": "2026-10-15",
+"asOf": "2026-10-16",
 "seriesId": "T10Y3M",
 "staleAfterDays": 7
 },
@@ -1047,7 +1035,7 @@
 "staleAfterDays": 45
 },
 "lei": {
-"level": 6289434.79,
+"level": 6289439.29,
 "mom6m": null,
 "signal": "expansion",
 "signalLabel": "확장",
@@ -1076,12 +1064,12 @@
 "missing": []
 },
 "rates": {
-"spread10y3m": 0.82,
+"spread10y3m": 0.83,
 "sign": "+",
 "curveShape": "steep_normal",
 "curveShapeLabel": "가파른정상",
 "curveSource": "NelsonSiegel.interpretation",
-"asOf": "2026-10-15",
+"asOf": "2026-10-16",
 "seriesId": "T10Y3M",
 "staleAfterDays": 7,
 "missing": []