갱신: dashboards JSON (mapBuild)

landing/dashboards/macro.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
 "version": "v20",
-"asOf": "2026-08-19",
+"asOf": "2026-08-20",
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
 "phase": null,
@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@
 "quadrant": "deflation",
 "quadrantLabel": "디플레이션",
 "growth": "falling",
-"growthSignal": -20.0,
+"growthSignal": -13.0,
 "inflation": "falling",
 "inflationSignal": -0.13,
 "assetImplication": {
@@ -32,19 +32,19 @@
 "confidence": "medium",
 "description": "성장 둔화 + 물가 하락 — 장기 국채 최적, 주식·원자재 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-08-18T22:13:34.487049+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-08-19T22:18:51.800056+00:00"
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
 "phase": "expansion",
 "phaseLabel": "확장",
-"confidence": "medium",
+"confidence": "low",
 "status": "observed",
 "observedInputs": 7,
 "totalInputs": 8,
 "signals": [
-"HY 스프레드 안정 (270bp)",
-"수익률곡선 정상 (+0.52%)",
+"HY 스프레드 안정 (275bp)",
+"수익률곡선 평탄화 (+0.46%)",
 "금 급등 (YoY +23.0%)",
 "CPI 3.5% — 인플레 동반 확장"
 ],
@@ -54,7 +54,19 @@
 "defensive": "neutral",
 "low": "neutral"
 },
-"transition": null,
+"transition": {
+"from": "expansion",
+"to": "slowdown",
+"progress": 25,
+"triggered": [
+"term_spread_flattening"
+],
+"pending": [
+"hy_spread_widening",
+"bei_overheating",
+"vix_rising"
+]
+},
 "quadrant": {
 "quadrant": "reflation",
 "quadrantLabel": "리플레이션",
@@ -73,15 +85,15 @@
 "confidence": "high",
 "description": "성장 가속 + 물가 상승 — 원자재·EM 주식·TIPS 유리, 명목채 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-08-18T22:13:34.603067+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-08-19T22:18:51.926006+00:00"
 },
 "transmission": {
 "target": "KR:market",
 "stockCode": null,
 "market": "KR",
 "sectorKey": null,
-"asOf": "2026-08-19",
-"dataAsOf": "2026-08-18",
+"asOf": "2026-08-20",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-08-19",
 "drivers": [
 {
 "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
@@ -103,11 +115,11 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "FRED",
 "sourceSeriesId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
-"date": "2026-08-17",
-"value": 2.7,
-"previousDate": "2026-08-14",
-"previousValue": 2.67,
-"change": 0.03000000000000025,
+"date": "2026-08-18",
+"value": 2.75,
+"previousDate": "2026-08-17",
+"previousValue": 2.7,
+"change": 0.04999999999999982,
 "unit": "%p",
 "artifactPath": "macro/fred/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
@@ -135,9 +147,9 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "BASE_RATE",
-"date": "2026-08-16",
+"date": "2026-08-17",
 "value": 2.75,
-"previousDate": "2026-08-15",
+"previousDate": "2026-08-16",
 "previousValue": 2.75,
 "change": 0.0,
 "unit": "%",
@@ -199,11 +211,11 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "FRED",
 "sourceSeriesId": "DCOILWTICO",
-"date": "2026-08-11",
-"value": 84.77,
-"previousDate": "2026-08-10",
-"previousValue": 83.76,
-"change": 1.009999999999991,
+"date": "2026-08-18",
+"value": 86.48,
+"previousDate": "2026-08-17",
+"previousValue": 86.04,
+"change": 0.4399999999999977,
 "unit": "$",
 "artifactPath": "macro/fred/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
@@ -263,11 +275,11 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "USDKRW",
-"date": "2026-08-18",
-"value": 1411.8,
-"previousDate": "2026-08-17",
-"previousValue": 1413.0,
-"change": -1.2000000000000455,
+"date": "2026-08-19",
+"value": 1397.7,
+"previousDate": "2026-08-18",
+"previousValue": 1411.8,
+"change": -14.099999999999909,
 "unit": "원",
 "artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
@@ -580,8 +592,8 @@
 "id": "driver:BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "driverId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-08-17",
-"value": 2.7,
+"date": "2026-08-18",
+"value": 2.75,
 "unit": "%p",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
 },
@@ -589,7 +601,7 @@
 "id": "driver:BASE_RATE",
 "driverId": "BASE_RATE",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-08-16",
+"date": "2026-08-17",
 "value": 2.75,
 "unit": "%",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE"
@@ -607,8 +619,8 @@
 "id": "driver:DCOILWTICO",
 "driverId": "DCOILWTICO",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-08-11",
-"value": 84.77,
+"date": "2026-08-18",
+"value": 86.48,
 "unit": "$",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#DCOILWTICO"
 },
@@ -625,8 +637,8 @@
 "id": "driver:USDKRW",
 "driverId": "USDKRW",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-08-18",
-"value": 1411.8,
+"date": "2026-08-19",
+"value": 1397.7,
 "unit": "원",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
@@ -654,10 +666,10 @@
 "version": "1"
 },
 "time": {
-"asOf": "2026-08-19",
-"dataAsOf": "2026-08-18",
+"asOf": "2026-08-20",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-08-19",
 "period": null,
-"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-08-19"
+"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-08-20"
 },
 "status": "partial",
 "conclusion": {
@@ -673,10 +685,10 @@
 {
 "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "label": "미국 HY 스프레드",
-"value": 2.7,
+"value": 2.75,
 "unit": "%p",
 "signal": "rising",
-"change": 0.03000000000000025,
+"change": 0.04999999999999982,
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
 },
 {
@@ -700,10 +712,10 @@
 {
 "id": "DCOILWTICO",
 "label": "WTI",
-"value": 84.77,
+"value": 86.48,
 "unit": "$",
 "signal": "rising",
-"change": 1.009999999999991,
+"change": 0.4399999999999977,
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#DCOILWTICO"
 },
 {
@@ -718,10 +730,10 @@
 {
 "id": "USDKRW",
 "label": "원/달러",
-"value": 1411.8,
+"value": 1397.7,
 "unit": "원",
 "signal": "falling",
-"change": -1.2000000000000455,
+"change": -14.099999999999909,
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
 ],
@@ -732,7 +744,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-08-17",
+"observedAt": "2026-08-18",
 "detail": "미국 HY 스프레드 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -740,7 +752,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-08-16",
+"observedAt": "2026-08-17",
 "detail": "한국 기준금리 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -756,7 +768,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#DCOILWTICO",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-08-11",
+"observedAt": "2026-08-18",
 "detail": "WTI 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -772,7 +784,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-08-18",
+"observedAt": "2026-08-19",
 "detail": "원/달러 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 }
 ],
@@ -966,7 +978,7 @@
 "regime": {
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
-"computedAt": "2026-08-18T22:13:55.494105+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-08-19T22:19:03.776994+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "lei": {
@@ -1008,19 +1020,19 @@
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
-"computedAt": "2026-08-18T22:13:55.769901+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-08-19T22:19:04.047922+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "probit": {
-"probability": 0.142,
+"probability": 0.1507,
 "probabilityRounded": 0.15,
-"zone": "low",
-"zoneLabel": "낮음",
-"spread": 0.85,
+"zone": "moderate",
+"zoneLabel": "보통",
+"spread": 0.79,
 "horizon": "12M",
 "timeKind": "leading",
 "precisionNote": "Estrella-Mishkin 고정계수·표준오차 미산출(점추정)",
-"asOf": "2026-08-18",
+"asOf": "2026-08-19",
 "seriesId": "T10Y3M",
 "staleAfterDays": 7
 },
@@ -1036,7 +1048,7 @@
 "staleAfterDays": 45
 },
 "lei": {
-"level": 6223628.34,
+"level": 6223627.6,
 "mom6m": null,
 "signal": "expansion",
 "signalLabel": "확장",
@@ -1065,21 +1077,21 @@
 "missing": []
 },
 "rates": {
-"spread10y3m": 0.85,
+"spread10y3m": 0.79,
 "sign": "+",
 "curveShape": "steep_normal",
 "curveShapeLabel": "가파른정상",
 "curveSource": "NelsonSiegel.interpretation",
-"asOf": "2026-08-18",
+"asOf": "2026-08-19",
 "seriesId": "T10Y3M",
 "staleAfterDays": 7,
 "missing": []
 },
 "gar": {
 "gar5": -0.48,
-"gar25": 1.31,
+"gar25": 1.3,
 "median": 2.08,
-"gar75": 2.84,
+"gar75": 2.83,
 "gar95": 4.67,
 "skewness": 0.03,
 "tailRisk": "moderate",