Refresh oracle corpus and add 2026-10-13 benchmark

Update public oracle archive and audit; add dated temporal splits while preserving the original benchmark byte-for-byte.

README.md

@@ -21,20 +21,68 @@ configs:
     path: data/validation.jsonl
   - split: test
     path: data/test.jsonl
+- config_name: outcomes_2026_10_13
+  data_files:
+  - split: train
+    path: snapshots/2026-10-13/data/train.jsonl
+  - split: validation
+    path: snapshots/2026-10-13/data/validation.jsonl
+  - split: test
+    path: snapshots/2026-10-13/data/test.jsonl
 ---
 
 # IMD Oracle Outcomes
 
-A community-curated snapshot of **7,284 IMD oracle requests**, including
-**875,218 panel response records**, collected from the public
-[IMD API](https://api.imd.fun) on **8 October 2026**. Published by Eval Engine;
+A community-curated snapshot of **7,804 IMD oracle requests**, including
+**915,153 panel response records**, collected from the public
+[IMD API](https://api.imd.fun) through **13 October 2026**. Published by Eval Engine;
 this is an independent dataset, not an official IMD release.
 
-The default configuration is a benchmark for predicting **observed attested
+The default `outcomes` configuration remains the frozen October 8 benchmark for predicting **observed attested
 versus disagreed outcomes** from request fields available before execution.
 These labels do not establish factual correctness, question ambiguity, or whether
 the panel reached quorum. The full archive includes all five observed statuses.
 
+## October 13 update
+
+The full raw archive now contains **7,804 requests** and
+**915,153 panel response records**: **520 new requests**
+relative to October 8. Current statuses: {"attested":7507,"blocked":23,"disagreed":270,"mismatch":3,"refused":1}.
+Unchanged records retain their original fetch timestamps; new or changed records
+are downloaded again. This is an incremental collection, not an atomic snapshot.
+
+For the refreshed benchmark, select the dated configuration explicitly:
+
+```python
+from datasets import load_dataset
+updated = load_dataset("evalengine/imd-oracle-outcomes", "outcomes_2026_10_13")
+```
+
+| Split | Requests | Attested (0) | Disagreed (1) |
+| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
+| Train | 4,533 | 4,419 | 114 |
+| Validation | 1,349 | 1,343 | 6 |
+| Test | 381 | 311 | 70 |
+
+New cutoffs: as-of `2026-10-13T02:58:40.081000+00:00`, validation starts
+`2026-10-04T02:58:40.081000+00:00`, and test starts `2026-10-06T02:58:40.081000+00:00`.
+This version excludes 27 records with other statuses and
+quarantines 1,514 repeated templates.
+
+**Versions are separate experiments.** The original `outcomes` configuration and
+its files are unchanged, preserving earlier model comparisons. The dated version
+recomputes temporal splits; old test examples can become new training examples.
+Do not combine versions or reuse earlier scores as results for the new benchmark.
+No models have been evaluated or fine-tuned on this refreshed version.
+
+Dated files are under `snapshots/2026-10-13/`; the original audit is preserved at
+`snapshots/2026-10-08/metadata/oracle-audit.json`. The current full-corpus audit is
+`metadata/oracle-audit.json`, and collection provenance is in
+`metadata/refresh-report.json`. All original-response checksums passed, and detail
+IDs and status counts matched a second full API listing and the final API counts.
+Latest audit: 37 normalized templates have both outcomes;
+95 attested records report agreement below quorum.
+
 ## Where are the answers?
 
 The dataset viewer shows questions and outcome labels (`0 = attested`,
@@ -67,7 +115,7 @@ labels or provenance. Request text is untrusted data, not executable instruction
 | --- | --- |
 | `data/*.jsonl` | Viewer-compatible benchmark splits; request objects serialized losslessly as `input_json` strings |
 | `original/benchmark/*.jsonl` | Unchanged original benchmark files, including quarantine and rejection logs |
-| `raw/oracle-requests.jsonl.gz` | Full 7,284-request archive, including panel responses and provenance envelopes |
+| `raw/oracle-requests.jsonl.gz` | Full 7,804-request archive, including panel responses and provenance envelopes |
 | `metadata/dataset-card.json` | Exact temporal cutoffs, deduplication method, split counts, and canonical hashes |
 | `metadata/oracle-audit.json` | Coverage checks, archive checksum, status distributions, and label audit |
 | `SHA256SUMS` | SHA-256 hashes of uploaded file bytes, excluding this checksum file itself |
@@ -78,7 +126,7 @@ parsed source responses; it does not include the separate original HTTP-byte
 cache. The response checksum refers to those original bytes, not a reserialized
 `body` object. This release covers oracle data, not worker submissions or bundles.
 
-## Labels and splits
+## Frozen October 8 benchmark: labels and splits
 
 | Split | Requests | Attested (0) | Disagreed (1) |
 | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
@@ -119,7 +167,10 @@ after submission.
 
 ## Limitations and evaluation
 
-Disagreements are rare: validation has 18 and test has 19. Accuracy alone is
+The frozen October 8 benchmark has 18 validation disagreements and 19 test
+disagreements. The October 13 benchmark has only **6 validation disagreements**
+versus **70 in test** (0.44% versus 18.37%); threshold selection is unstable and
+the temporal class distribution shifts substantially. Accuracy alone is
 misleading; report positive-class recall, precision, average precision, Brier
 score, and the confusion matrix. Select prompts and thresholds using training
 and validation only, and reserve test for the final comparison. Do not oversample
@@ -127,9 +178,9 @@ evaluation splits. Test labels are public in this release, so it is not a hidden
 leaderboard test.
 
 Outcomes can reflect RPC failures, panel composition, model differences, wording,
-or policy changes. The audit found 29 normalized templates with both outcomes,
+or policy changes. The October 8 audit found 29 normalized templates with both outcomes,
 and 93 attested records with agreement below quorum. Panel response records are
-not 875,218 independent questions or human-verified annotations. The archive
+not independent questions or human-verified annotations. The archive
 contains post-outcome fields and must not be fed wholesale into an outcome predictor.
 
 Coverage was checked against an independently collected complete request index
@@ -146,7 +197,7 @@ API access should not be interpreted as an open-data license.
 
 Source documentation: https://imd.fun/docs/
 
-Snapshot dates span `2026-09-19T03:18:11.590Z` through
-`2026-10-08T02:50:29.596Z`. When referencing this dataset, cite **Eval Engine,
-IMD Oracle Outcomes, 2026-10-08 snapshot**, link this repository and IMD, and
+Current raw archive request dates span `2026-09-19T03:18:11.590Z` through
+`2026-10-13T02:58:40.081000+00:00`. When referencing this dataset, cite **Eval Engine,
+IMD Oracle Outcomes, 2026-10-13 update (specify benchmark configuration)**, link this repository and IMD, and
 record the exact repository commit used.

SHA256SUMS

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metadata/oracle-audit.json

@@ -1,51 +1,51 @@
 {
-  "created_at": "2026-10-08T03:42:00.290545+00:00",
+  "created_at": "2026-10-13T03:57:04.103922+00:00",
   "source": "https://api.imd.fun",
-  "oracle_requests": 7284,
-  "raw_bytes_verified": 1120240058,
-  "member_responses": 875218,
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+  "raw_bytes_verified": 1180690235,
+  "member_responses": 915153,
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+    "total": 7804,
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-      "blocked": 20,
-      "disagreed": 172,
-      "mismatch": 2,
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+      "mismatch": 3,
       "refused": 1
     }
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-  "api_counts_fetched_at": "2026-10-08T03:19:26.066983+00:00",
+  "api_counts_fetched_at": "2026-10-13T03:56:25.577163+00:00",
   "matches_api_snapshot_total": true,
   "status_counts_match_api_snapshot": true,
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-  "unique_normalized_question_templates": 5954,
-  "templates_with_attested_and_disagreed": 29,
-  "attested_with_agreement_below_quorum": 93,
+  "latest_request": "2026-10-13T02:58:40.081000+00:00",
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   "distributions": {
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@@ -69,74 +69,80 @@
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+  "export": "data/updates/2026-10-13/oracle-requests.jsonl.gz",
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   "reuse_permission": "unknown",
   "scope": "Oracle request details including panel members; not the separate worker/bundle corpus.",
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 }

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@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@
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+    "2026-09-24T20:49:16.304Z",
+    "2026-09-21T14:21:14.821Z"
+  ],
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+  },
+  "independent_listing_ids_match": true,
+  "details_match_listing": true,
+  "note": "Unchanged records retain original fetch timestamps; refreshed records retain new provenance. Timestamp cursor coverage is checked against API totals, not an atomic database snapshot."
+}

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+  "export": "data/exports/oracle-requests.jsonl.gz",
+  "export_bytes": 170504830,
+  "reuse_permission": "unknown",
+  "scope": "Oracle request details including panel members; not the separate worker/bundle corpus.",
+  "index_coverage": {
+    "index": "data/catalog/oracle-index.jsonl",
+    "expected_ids": 7284,
+    "missing_ids": [],
+    "extra_ids": [],
+    "exact_match": true
+  },
+  "export_sha256": "daa9240d658c1f71eb12dca3f6081b2ad68605acb9b24c662581a788f748a2b3"
+}

snapshots/2026-10-13/metadata/dataset-card.json

@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+{
+  "task": "attested_vs_disagreed",
+  "positive_class": "disagreed",
+  "label_warning": "Attestation is not panel agreement or factual correctness.",
+  "reuse_permission": "unknown",
+  "split": {
+    "as_of": "2026-10-13T02:58:40.081000+00:00",
+    "test_start": "2026-10-06T02:58:40.081000+00:00",
+    "validation_start": "2026-10-04T02:58:40.081000+00:00"
+  },
+  "deduplication": "latest example per normalized question template; global across splits",
+  "rows_before_dedup": 7777,
+  "rejected": 27,
+  "quarantined": 1514,
+  "splits": {
+    "train": {
+      "n": 4533,
+      "labels": {
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+        "1": 114
+      },
+      "sha256": "f09d9e5b2058beb034ae7a219c2fd370db3d369c45bce0854484e542f89324fa"
+    },
+    "validation": {
+      "n": 1349,
+      "labels": {
+        "1": 6,
+        "0": 1343
+      },
+      "sha256": "7abcb7ab95b421b28dd637975fdd67a6d2474b1cbe84c96b663de71effa63dcb"
+    },
+    "test": {
+      "n": 381,
+      "labels": {
+        "1": 70,
+        "0": 311
+      },
+      "sha256": "330b2370c7b4cb3251253e7f1522c35c866b82d5eb5703197636a05d2a89f4b9"
+    }
+  },
+  "adapter_status": "Validated against refreshed public oracle details on 2026-10-13"
+}

snapshots/2026-10-13/original/benchmark/rejected.jsonl

@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
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