---
license: apache-2.0
language:
- en
tags:
- time-series
- forecasting
- chronos
- patch-aliasing
- bayesian
size_categories:
- 10K<n<100K
---

# Patch-Aliasing Bayesian Analysis Data

Raw and processed data from the Bayesian analysis of structural patch-aliasing in Chronos-Bolt Tiny.
Companion to the model weights at [`federicosabbadini/chronos-bolt-patch-aliasing-models`](https://huggingface.co/federicosabbadini/chronos-bolt-patch-aliasing-models).

## Structure

```
clean_15model/          # 15 preregistered (P,S) configurations
full_22model/           # all 22 configurations (adds 7 robustness checks)
h1_fixed_offset/        # supplementary H1 analysis with fixed offset
```

Each run folder contains:

- `01_prior_spec.json` / `.parquet` — prior specification
- `03_recovery.parquet` — parameter recovery test
- `04_*.nc` — MCMC trace files (NetCDF/ArviZ InferenceData)
- `05_diagnostics.parquet` — convergence diagnostics
- `05_sensitivity.parquet` — prior sensitivity analysis
- `05_verdicts.parquet` — hypothesis verdicts
- `data/` — input data (contrasts, collapse profiles, MDL cells, sites)
- `data/signals/` — generated probe signals
- `figures/` — analysis figures (prior predictive, forests, combs, PPC, sensitivity)
- `run.log` — execution log

## Models fitted

| ID | Estimand | Hypothesis |
|---|---|---|
| A | Population forecast attenuation | H1 behavioural |
| B | Codelength expansion at locked frequencies | H1 representational |
| C | Phase-offset dispersion | H2 |
| D1 | Token-collapse grid labelling | H3a (stride branch) |
| D2 | Stride-scaling slope | H3a (κ_S) |

## Key results

- **H1 behavioural**: inconclusive (forecast contrast 1.08 [0.45, 2.49])
- **H1 representational**: supported on clean (codelength 1.27 [1.23, 1.31])
- **H2 phase invariance**: supported (σ_φ = 0.033, ROPE prob 0.997)
- **H3a stride branch**: supported (κ_S = 1.000 [0.992, 1.008])
- **H3b patch branch**: not identified

## Trace file sizes

The `.nc` files contain full MCMC traces (4 chains × 2000 draws). Models A and C are large (~8 GB each) due to per-observation random effects; Models B, D1, D2 are smaller (4–730 MB).

## License

Apache-2.0 — same as the Chronos models these data derive from.