Hugging Face's logo

Datasets:
forecastingresearch
/
forecastbench-datasets

Languages:
English
ArXiv:
License:
Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
Community
ForecastBench bot commited on
Commit
14495a5
·
1 Parent(s): aa07d18

leaderboard: automatic update html & csv files.

Browse files
Files changed (6) hide show
  1. leaderboards/csv/human_combo_leaderboard_overall.csv +117 -117
  2. leaderboards/csv/human_leaderboard_overall.csv +71 -71
  3. leaderboards/csv/leaderboard_overall.csv +92 -92
  4. leaderboards/html/human_combo_leaderboard_overall.html +254 -254
  5. leaderboards/html/human_leaderboard_overall.html +144 -144
  6. leaderboards/html/leaderboard_overall.html +152 -152
leaderboards/csv/human_combo_leaderboard_overall.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,141 +1,141 @@
1
  Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=1,754)",Market Score (resolved) (N=193),Market Score (unresolved) (N=103),Market Score (overall) (N=296),"Overall Resolved Score (N=1,947)","Overall Score (N=2,050)",Overall Score 95% CI,Pairwise p-value comparing to No. 1 (bootstrapped),Pct. more accurate than No. 1,Pct. Imputed
2
- 1,ForecastBench,Superforecaster median forecast,0.091,0.062,0.06,0.061,0.076,0.076,[0.067 0.085],,0%,0%
3
- 2,ForecastBench,Public median forecast,0.119,0.092,0.034,0.072,0.105,0.095,[0.086 0.105],<0.001,23%,0%
4
- 3,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with freeze values),0.175,0.107,0.042,0.085,0.141,0.13,[0.119 0.141],<0.001,24%,0%
5
- 4,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.154,0.144,0.037,0.107,0.149,0.131,[0.118 0.143],<0.001,23%,0%
6
- 5,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.164,0.126,0.054,0.101,0.145,0.132,[0.12 0.145],<0.001,23%,0%
7
- 6,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.171,0.132,0.05,0.103,0.151,0.137,[0.125 0.149],<0.001,20%,0%
8
- 7,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with freeze values),0.152,0.158,0.076,0.129,0.155,0.141,[0.13 0.152],<0.001,21%,0%
9
- 8,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.154,0.164,0.074,0.133,0.159,0.143,[0.132 0.154],<0.001,21%,1%
10
- 9,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.16,0.158,0.076,0.13,0.159,0.145,[0.132 0.157],<0.001,20%,0%
11
- 10,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot with freeze values),0.174,0.148,0.063,0.119,0.161,0.146,[0.133 0.16 ],<0.001,22%,0%
12
- 11,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad),0.152,0.172,0.088,0.143,0.162,0.148,[0.137 0.158],<0.001,20%,1%
13
- 12,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad),0.164,0.154,0.09,0.132,0.159,0.148,[0.138 0.158],<0.001,17%,0%
14
- 13,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news),0.154,0.165,0.1,0.143,0.159,0.148,[0.137 0.159],<0.001,21%,1%
15
- 14,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad),0.154,0.166,0.098,0.142,0.16,0.148,[0.137 0.16 ],<0.001,20%,0%
16
- 15,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with freeze values),0.173,0.162,0.053,0.124,0.167,0.148,[0.135 0.162],<0.001,21%,0%
17
- 16,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad),0.175,0.144,0.081,0.122,0.159,0.148,[0.138 0.159],<0.001,19%,1%
18
  17,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news),0.171,0.146,0.092,0.127,0.159,0.149,[0.138 0.16 ],<0.001,18%,0%
19
- 18,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with freeze values),0.2,0.125,0.051,0.099,0.163,0.15,[0.137 0.162],<0.001,24%,0%
20
- 19,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with freeze values),0.171,0.16,0.077,0.131,0.165,0.151,[0.14 0.162],<0.001,16%,1%
21
- 20,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news),0.16,0.174,0.101,0.148,0.167,0.154,[0.142 0.166],<0.001,19%,0%
22
- 21,ForecastBench,Imputed Forecaster,0.25,0.073,0.033,0.059,0.161,0.154,[0.146 0.162],<0.001,22%,100%
23
- 22,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot with freeze values),0.213,0.125,0.051,0.099,0.169,0.156,[0.144 0.168],<0.001,21%,0%
24
- 23,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot with freeze values),0.205,0.125,0.081,0.11,0.165,0.157,[0.144 0.17 ],<0.001,20%,15%
25
- 24,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 3),0.167,0.181,0.087,0.148,0.174,0.157,[0.145 0.169],<0.001,17%,2%
26
  25,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.19,0.158,0.064,0.125,0.174,0.158,[0.145 0.171],<0.001,19%,1%
27
- 26,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.185,0.161,0.083,0.134,0.173,0.159,[0.148 0.171],<0.001,17%,0%
28
- 27,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.241,0.097,0.049,0.08,0.169,0.161,[0.153 0.168],<0.001,18%,76%
29
- 28,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.209,0.132,0.08,0.114,0.17,0.161,[0.149 0.173],<0.001,20%,0%
30
- 29,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.242,0.1,0.049,0.082,0.171,0.162,[0.154 0.17 ],<0.001,18%,76%
31
- 30,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.243,0.099,0.049,0.082,0.171,0.162,[0.154 0.17 ],<0.001,18%,76%
32
- 31,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3),0.176,0.176,0.105,0.151,0.176,0.164,[0.152 0.175],<0.001,19%,1%
33
- 32,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with freeze values),0.185,0.166,0.099,0.143,0.176,0.164,[0.153 0.175],<0.001,16%,0%
34
- 33,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad),0.19,0.169,0.085,0.14,0.18,0.165,[0.156 0.174],<0.001,15%,1%
35
- 34,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad),0.171,0.187,0.111,0.16,0.179,0.165,[0.156 0.175],<0.001,15%,0%
36
- 35,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot),0.205,0.136,0.112,0.128,0.171,0.166,[0.154 0.179],<0.001,19%,15%
37
- 36,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with freeze values),0.179,0.182,0.102,0.154,0.18,0.167,[0.153 0.18 ],<0.001,18%,0%
38
- 37,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad),0.228,0.117,0.083,0.105,0.172,0.167,[0.157 0.176],<0.001,20%,24%
39
- 38,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.205,0.168,0.064,0.132,0.186,0.168,[0.155 0.182],<0.001,19%,0%
40
- 39,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.208,0.156,0.077,0.129,0.182,0.169,[0.158 0.179],<0.001,17%,0%
41
- 40,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with freeze values),0.217,0.15,0.067,0.121,0.183,0.169,[0.155 0.183],<0.001,23%,0%
42
- 41,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot),0.173,0.201,0.097,0.165,0.187,0.169,[0.155 0.182],<0.001,18%,0%
43
- 42,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot),0.2,0.16,0.098,0.138,0.18,0.169,[0.157 0.182],<0.001,19%,1%
44
  43,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news),0.209,0.149,0.095,0.131,0.179,0.17,[0.159 0.18 ],<0.001,17%,0%
45
  44,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad),0.179,0.185,0.115,0.16,0.182,0.17,[0.159 0.181],<0.001,16%,0%
46
  45,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 3),0.202,0.163,0.093,0.139,0.183,0.17,[0.159 0.181],<0.001,17%,9%
47
- 46,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.198,0.172,0.096,0.145,0.185,0.172,[0.161 0.183],<0.001,16%,0%
48
- 47,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot),0.174,0.197,0.121,0.17,0.185,0.172,[0.158 0.186],<0.001,17%,1%
49
- 48,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot with freeze values),0.203,0.184,0.069,0.144,0.194,0.174,[0.16 0.187],<0.001,19%,0%
50
- 49,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.228,0.147,0.069,0.12,0.187,0.174,[0.162 0.186],<0.001,20%,18%
51
  50,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 3),0.206,0.169,0.099,0.145,0.188,0.175,[0.165 0.186],<0.001,16%,7%
52
- 51,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad),0.185,0.206,0.104,0.171,0.195,0.178,[0.167 0.189],<0.001,17%,0%
53
- 52,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad),0.185,0.197,0.121,0.17,0.191,0.178,[0.168 0.188],<0.001,15%,0%
54
- 53,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.217,0.165,0.093,0.14,0.191,0.178,[0.167 0.189],<0.001,15%,1%
55
- 54,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.232,0.139,0.1,0.125,0.185,0.179,[0.168 0.19 ],<0.001,15%,11%
56
- 55,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 1),0.203,0.184,0.1,0.155,0.194,0.179,[0.167 0.191],<0.001,17%,15%
57
  56,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.198,0.195,0.097,0.161,0.197,0.179,[0.169 0.19 ],<0.001,16%,0%
58
  57,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.198,0.189,0.112,0.162,0.193,0.18,[0.167 0.193],<0.001,16%,0%
59
- 58,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 1),0.203,0.19,0.099,0.158,0.196,0.18,[0.168 0.193],<0.001,18%,17%
60
- 59,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 1),0.2,0.194,0.101,0.162,0.197,0.181,[0.167 0.195],<0.001,19%,0%
61
- 60,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot with freeze values),0.21,0.175,0.109,0.152,0.192,0.181,[0.165 0.196],<0.001,21%,1%
62
- 61,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news),0.198,0.191,0.112,0.164,0.194,0.181,[0.171 0.191],<0.001,16%,0%
63
- 62,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.213,0.174,0.104,0.15,0.194,0.182,[0.169 0.194],<0.001,16%,0%
64
- 63,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.205,0.188,0.112,0.161,0.196,0.183,[0.172 0.194],<0.001,16%,0%
65
- 64,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot),0.21,0.196,0.083,0.157,0.203,0.183,[0.17 0.197],<0.001,18%,3%
66
- 65,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.203,0.198,0.104,0.165,0.2,0.184,[0.172 0.196],<0.001,16%,0%
67
- 66,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 1),0.197,0.211,0.102,0.173,0.204,0.185,[0.173 0.197],<0.001,16%,8%
68
  67,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 2),0.2,0.202,0.111,0.17,0.201,0.185,[0.173 0.198],<0.001,17%,1%
69
- 68,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 2),0.222,0.161,0.127,0.149,0.191,0.186,[0.174 0.197],<0.001,18%,11%
70
- 69,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 3),0.195,0.206,0.118,0.176,0.201,0.186,[0.174 0.198],<0.001,16%,5%
71
- 70,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news),0.203,0.201,0.114,0.171,0.202,0.187,[0.176 0.198],<0.001,16%,0%
72
- 71,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 3),0.213,0.191,0.103,0.161,0.202,0.187,[0.177 0.196],<0.001,16%,4%
73
- 72,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news),0.213,0.187,0.116,0.162,0.2,0.188,[0.176 0.199],<0.001,16%,0%
74
- 73,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot with freeze values),0.218,0.196,0.089,0.159,0.207,0.188,[0.174 0.203],<0.001,16%,1%
75
- 74,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.207,0.197,0.122,0.171,0.202,0.189,[0.174 0.204],<0.001,19%,0%
76
- 75,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.224,0.159,0.147,0.154,0.191,0.189,[0.175 0.204],<0.001,19%,0%
77
- 76,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news),0.234,0.179,0.091,0.148,0.206,0.191,[0.179 0.203],<0.001,18%,14%
78
- 77,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.208,0.206,0.114,0.174,0.207,0.191,[0.183 0.2 ],<0.001,16%,0%
79
- 78,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.234,0.182,0.089,0.15,0.208,0.192,[0.18 0.204],<0.001,18%,10%
80
- 79,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 1),0.209,0.217,0.102,0.177,0.213,0.193,[0.18 0.206],<0.001,18%,4%
81
  80,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 1),0.216,0.205,0.107,0.171,0.21,0.193,[0.18 0.206],<0.001,16%,0%
82
- 81,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot),0.218,0.203,0.103,0.168,0.211,0.193,[0.182 0.204],<0.001,15%,1%
83
- 82,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot),0.213,0.212,0.11,0.177,0.213,0.195,[0.184 0.206],<0.001,16%,0%
84
  83,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.228,0.197,0.099,0.163,0.213,0.196,[0.186 0.205],<0.001,14%,13%
85
  84,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.229,0.195,0.103,0.163,0.212,0.196,[0.187 0.205],<0.001,15%,0%
86
- 85,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot),0.203,0.216,0.141,0.19,0.209,0.196,[0.183 0.209],<0.001,16%,0%
87
- 86,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.236,0.179,0.116,0.157,0.208,0.197,[0.185 0.208],<0.001,18%,12%
88
- 87,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 2),0.207,0.218,0.126,0.186,0.213,0.197,[0.184 0.21 ],<0.001,16%,1%
89
- 88,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 3),0.225,0.197,0.12,0.17,0.211,0.198,[0.187 0.209],<0.001,15%,9%
90
  89,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.234,0.183,0.123,0.162,0.209,0.198,[0.185 0.211],<0.001,17%,19%
91
- 90,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.207,0.222,0.139,0.193,0.214,0.2,[0.186 0.214],<0.001,16%,0%
92
- 91,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.229,0.21,0.098,0.171,0.219,0.2,[0.189 0.211],<0.001,16%,0%
93
- 92,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.224,0.194,0.163,0.183,0.209,0.204,[0.188 0.219],<0.001,18%,0%
94
- 93,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.26,0.181,0.098,0.152,0.22,0.206,[0.19 0.222],<0.001,23%,0%
95
  94,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot),0.217,0.212,0.165,0.196,0.214,0.206,[0.192 0.221],<0.001,18%,1%
96
- 95,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.236,0.203,0.129,0.177,0.22,0.207,[0.193 0.22 ],<0.001,18%,11%
97
- 96,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 2),0.242,0.21,0.114,0.177,0.226,0.21,[0.195 0.224],<0.001,18%,0%
98
- 97,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.265,0.189,0.098,0.157,0.227,0.211,[0.197 0.225],<0.001,20%,21%
99
- 98,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.242,0.209,0.129,0.181,0.226,0.212,[0.2 0.223],<0.001,15%,0%
100
- 99,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.27,0.168,0.128,0.154,0.219,0.212,[0.201 0.223],<0.001,18%,17%
101
  100,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 2),0.246,0.21,0.119,0.178,0.228,0.212,[0.198 0.226],<0.001,18%,8%
102
- 101,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.246,0.216,0.111,0.179,0.231,0.212,[0.202 0.222],<0.001,16%,1%
103
- 102,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news),0.242,0.218,0.126,0.186,0.23,0.214,[0.203 0.225],<0.001,15%,0%
104
- 103,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 2),0.243,0.224,0.114,0.186,0.233,0.214,[0.203 0.225],<0.001,16%,4%
105
- 104,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.244,0.214,0.131,0.185,0.229,0.215,[0.198 0.231],<0.001,18%,0%
106
- 105,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 2),0.257,0.21,0.111,0.175,0.234,0.216,[0.202 0.23 ],<0.001,18%,5%
107
- 106,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.257,0.218,0.103,0.178,0.237,0.217,[0.205 0.23 ],<0.001,18%,10%
108
- 107,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.274,0.199,0.102,0.165,0.237,0.22,[0.206 0.233],<0.001,19%,24%
109
- 108,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 1),0.237,0.234,0.143,0.202,0.236,0.22,[0.206 0.234],<0.001,15%,20%
110
- 109,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 2),0.231,0.244,0.159,0.214,0.237,0.222,[0.209 0.236],<0.001,15%,9%
111
- 110,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.295,0.175,0.122,0.156,0.235,0.226,[0.212 0.239],<0.001,18%,17%
112
  111,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.291,0.17,0.144,0.161,0.231,0.226,[0.214 0.238],<0.001,18%,14%
113
- 112,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.291,0.186,0.122,0.163,0.238,0.227,[0.215 0.239],<0.001,17%,15%
114
- 113,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 1),0.248,0.232,0.159,0.206,0.24,0.227,[0.213 0.242],<0.001,15%,25%
115
- 114,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot),0.244,0.24,0.157,0.211,0.242,0.227,[0.215 0.24 ],<0.001,15%,0%
116
- 115,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 3),0.267,0.217,0.136,0.188,0.242,0.228,[0.216 0.239],<0.001,15%,5%
117
- 116,ForecastBench,Always 0.5,0.25,0.25,0.132,0.209,0.25,0.23,[0.225 0.234],<0.001,14%,0%
118
  117,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.262,0.234,0.134,0.199,0.248,0.23,[0.22 0.241],<0.001,16%,1%
119
- 118,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.289,0.197,0.128,0.173,0.243,0.231,[0.218 0.244],<0.001,20%,20%
120
  119,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.272,0.222,0.137,0.192,0.247,0.232,[0.22 0.244],<0.001,15%,0%
121
- 120,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.26,0.234,0.158,0.207,0.247,0.233,[0.216 0.251],<0.001,19%,0%
122
- 121,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot with freeze values),0.28,0.226,0.122,0.19,0.253,0.235,[0.222 0.247],<0.001,15%,1%
123
- 122,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.262,0.249,0.138,0.21,0.255,0.236,[0.226 0.246],<0.001,16%,1%
124
- 123,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.27,0.248,0.139,0.21,0.259,0.24,[0.229 0.251],<0.001,14%,1%
125
  124,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.272,0.246,0.149,0.212,0.259,0.242,[0.231 0.252],<0.001,15%,0%
126
- 125,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad),0.27,0.262,0.136,0.218,0.266,0.244,[0.234 0.254],<0.001,15%,1%
127
  126,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 2),0.263,0.271,0.14,0.226,0.267,0.244,[0.233 0.255],<0.001,15%,5%
128
- 127,ForecastBench,Always 0,0.269,0.218,0.23,0.222,0.243,0.245,[0.221 0.27 ],<0.001,46%,0%
129
- 128,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot),0.28,0.253,0.136,0.212,0.266,0.246,[0.236 0.256],<0.001,15%,1%
130
- 129,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 3),0.287,0.258,0.156,0.222,0.272,0.254,[0.245 0.264],<0.001,14%,18%
131
- 130,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.305,0.252,0.121,0.206,0.278,0.256,[0.245 0.266],<0.001,14%,0%
132
- 131,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.288,0.269,0.166,0.233,0.278,0.26,[0.25 0.271],<0.001,14%,0%
133
- 132,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news),0.305,0.262,0.134,0.217,0.283,0.261,[0.251 0.271],<0.001,15%,1%
134
- 133,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad),0.288,0.291,0.161,0.246,0.289,0.267,[0.256 0.278],<0.001,15%,0%
135
  134,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.304,0.288,0.189,0.254,0.296,0.279,[0.262 0.296],<0.001,17%,0%
136
  135,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 1),0.29,0.321,0.168,0.268,0.306,0.279,[0.265 0.292],<0.001,15%,6%
137
- 136,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.304,0.337,0.185,0.284,0.32,0.294,[0.281 0.307],<0.001,16%,1%
138
- 137,ForecastBench,Random Uniform,0.34,0.311,0.19,0.269,0.325,0.304,[0.287 0.322],<0.001,18%,0%
139
- 138,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot with freeze values),0.446,0.257,0.171,0.227,0.351,0.336,[0.318 0.355],<0.001,20%,0%
140
- 139,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot),0.446,0.32,0.2,0.278,0.383,0.362,[0.346 0.378],<0.001,16%,0%
141
  140,ForecastBench,Always 1,0.731,0.782,0.535,0.696,0.757,0.714,[0.688 0.74 ],<0.001,20%,0%
 
1
  Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=1,754)",Market Score (resolved) (N=193),Market Score (unresolved) (N=103),Market Score (overall) (N=296),"Overall Resolved Score (N=1,947)","Overall Score (N=2,050)",Overall Score 95% CI,Pairwise p-value comparing to No. 1 (bootstrapped),Pct. more accurate than No. 1,Pct. Imputed
2
+ 1,ForecastBench,Superforecaster median forecast,0.091,0.062,0.062,0.062,0.076,0.076,[0.067 0.086],,0%,0%
3
+ 2,ForecastBench,Public median forecast,0.119,0.092,0.035,0.072,0.105,0.096,[0.086 0.105],<0.001,23%,0%
4
+ 3,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with freeze values),0.175,0.107,0.043,0.085,0.141,0.13,[0.119 0.141],<0.001,24%,0%
5
+ 4,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.154,0.144,0.038,0.107,0.149,0.131,[0.118 0.143],<0.001,24%,0%
6
+ 5,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.164,0.126,0.054,0.101,0.145,0.133,[0.121 0.145],<0.001,23%,0%
7
+ 6,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.171,0.132,0.051,0.103,0.151,0.137,[0.125 0.149],<0.001,20%,0%
8
+ 7,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with freeze values),0.152,0.158,0.077,0.13,0.155,0.141,[0.13 0.152],<0.001,21%,0%
9
+ 8,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.154,0.164,0.075,0.133,0.159,0.143,[0.133 0.154],<0.001,21%,1%
10
+ 9,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.16,0.158,0.078,0.13,0.159,0.145,[0.132 0.158],<0.001,20%,0%
11
+ 10,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot with freeze values),0.174,0.148,0.064,0.119,0.161,0.146,[0.133 0.16 ],<0.001,22%,0%
12
+ 11,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad),0.152,0.172,0.089,0.143,0.162,0.148,[0.137 0.158],<0.001,20%,1%
13
+ 12,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad),0.164,0.154,0.091,0.132,0.159,0.148,[0.138 0.158],<0.001,17%,0%
14
+ 13,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news),0.154,0.165,0.101,0.143,0.159,0.148,[0.137 0.16 ],<0.001,21%,1%
15
+ 14,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad),0.154,0.166,0.099,0.143,0.16,0.149,[0.137 0.16 ],<0.001,20%,0%
16
+ 15,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad),0.175,0.144,0.082,0.122,0.159,0.149,[0.138 0.159],<0.001,19%,1%
17
+ 16,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with freeze values),0.173,0.162,0.054,0.124,0.167,0.149,[0.135 0.162],<0.001,21%,0%
18
  17,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news),0.171,0.146,0.092,0.127,0.159,0.149,[0.138 0.16 ],<0.001,18%,0%
19
+ 18,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with freeze values),0.2,0.125,0.052,0.1,0.163,0.15,[0.137 0.162],<0.001,24%,0%
20
+ 19,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with freeze values),0.171,0.16,0.078,0.131,0.165,0.151,[0.14 0.162],<0.001,16%,1%
21
+ 20,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news),0.16,0.174,0.102,0.149,0.167,0.154,[0.143 0.166],<0.001,19%,0%
22
+ 21,ForecastBench,Imputed Forecaster,0.25,0.073,0.034,0.059,0.161,0.155,[0.146 0.163],<0.001,22%,100%
23
+ 22,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot with freeze values),0.213,0.125,0.052,0.099,0.169,0.156,[0.144 0.168],<0.001,21%,0%
24
+ 23,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot with freeze values),0.205,0.125,0.082,0.11,0.165,0.157,[0.144 0.171],<0.001,20%,15%
25
+ 24,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 3),0.167,0.181,0.088,0.148,0.174,0.158,[0.146 0.169],<0.001,17%,2%
26
  25,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.19,0.158,0.064,0.125,0.174,0.158,[0.145 0.171],<0.001,19%,1%
27
+ 26,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.185,0.161,0.084,0.134,0.173,0.159,[0.148 0.171],<0.001,18%,0%
28
+ 27,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.241,0.097,0.05,0.08,0.169,0.161,[0.153 0.168],<0.001,18%,76%
29
+ 28,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.209,0.132,0.081,0.114,0.17,0.161,[0.149 0.173],<0.001,20%,0%
30
+ 29,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.242,0.1,0.05,0.083,0.171,0.162,[0.155 0.17 ],<0.001,18%,76%
31
+ 30,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.243,0.099,0.049,0.082,0.171,0.162,[0.155 0.17 ],<0.001,18%,76%
32
+ 31,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3),0.176,0.176,0.106,0.151,0.176,0.164,[0.153 0.175],<0.001,19%,1%
33
+ 32,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with freeze values),0.185,0.166,0.1,0.143,0.176,0.164,[0.154 0.175],<0.001,16%,0%
34
+ 33,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad),0.19,0.169,0.086,0.14,0.18,0.165,[0.156 0.174],<0.001,15%,1%
35
+ 34,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad),0.171,0.187,0.111,0.16,0.179,0.166,[0.156 0.175],<0.001,15%,0%
36
+ 35,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot),0.205,0.136,0.113,0.128,0.171,0.167,[0.154 0.179],<0.001,19%,15%
37
+ 36,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with freeze values),0.179,0.182,0.103,0.154,0.18,0.167,[0.153 0.18 ],<0.001,18%,0%
38
+ 37,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad),0.228,0.117,0.084,0.105,0.172,0.167,[0.157 0.177],<0.001,20%,24%
39
+ 38,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.205,0.168,0.065,0.132,0.186,0.168,[0.155 0.182],<0.001,19%,0%
40
+ 39,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.208,0.156,0.078,0.129,0.182,0.169,[0.158 0.179],<0.001,17%,0%
41
+ 40,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with freeze values),0.217,0.15,0.069,0.121,0.183,0.169,[0.155 0.183],<0.001,23%,0%
42
+ 41,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot),0.173,0.201,0.098,0.165,0.187,0.169,[0.156 0.183],<0.001,18%,0%
43
+ 42,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot),0.2,0.16,0.1,0.139,0.18,0.169,[0.157 0.182],<0.001,19%,1%
44
  43,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news),0.209,0.149,0.095,0.131,0.179,0.17,[0.159 0.18 ],<0.001,17%,0%
45
  44,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad),0.179,0.185,0.115,0.16,0.182,0.17,[0.159 0.181],<0.001,16%,0%
46
  45,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 3),0.202,0.163,0.093,0.139,0.183,0.17,[0.159 0.181],<0.001,17%,9%
47
+ 46,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.198,0.172,0.096,0.146,0.185,0.172,[0.161 0.183],<0.001,16%,0%
48
+ 47,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot),0.174,0.197,0.122,0.171,0.185,0.172,[0.158 0.187],<0.001,17%,1%
49
+ 48,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot with freeze values),0.203,0.184,0.071,0.145,0.194,0.174,[0.16 0.188],<0.001,19%,0%
50
+ 49,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.228,0.147,0.07,0.12,0.187,0.174,[0.162 0.186],<0.001,20%,18%
51
  50,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 3),0.206,0.169,0.099,0.145,0.188,0.175,[0.165 0.186],<0.001,16%,7%
52
+ 51,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad),0.185,0.206,0.106,0.171,0.195,0.178,[0.167 0.189],<0.001,17%,0%
53
+ 52,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad),0.185,0.197,0.122,0.171,0.191,0.178,[0.168 0.188],<0.001,15%,0%
54
+ 53,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.217,0.165,0.094,0.14,0.191,0.178,[0.167 0.19 ],<0.001,15%,1%
55
+ 54,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.232,0.139,0.101,0.126,0.185,0.179,[0.168 0.19 ],<0.001,15%,11%
56
+ 55,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 1),0.203,0.184,0.101,0.155,0.194,0.179,[0.168 0.191],<0.001,17%,15%
57
  56,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.198,0.195,0.097,0.161,0.197,0.179,[0.169 0.19 ],<0.001,16%,0%
58
  57,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.198,0.189,0.112,0.162,0.193,0.18,[0.167 0.193],<0.001,16%,0%
59
+ 58,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 1),0.203,0.19,0.1,0.159,0.196,0.181,[0.168 0.193],<0.001,18%,17%
60
+ 59,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 1),0.2,0.194,0.102,0.162,0.197,0.181,[0.167 0.195],<0.001,19%,0%
61
+ 60,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news),0.198,0.191,0.113,0.164,0.194,0.181,[0.171 0.191],<0.001,16%,0%
62
+ 61,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot with freeze values),0.21,0.175,0.111,0.152,0.192,0.181,[0.165 0.197],<0.001,21%,1%
63
+ 62,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.213,0.174,0.105,0.15,0.194,0.182,[0.169 0.195],<0.001,16%,0%
64
+ 63,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.205,0.188,0.113,0.162,0.196,0.183,[0.172 0.194],<0.001,16%,0%
65
+ 64,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot),0.21,0.196,0.085,0.157,0.203,0.183,[0.17 0.197],<0.001,18%,3%
66
+ 65,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.203,0.198,0.105,0.166,0.2,0.184,[0.172 0.196],<0.001,16%,0%
67
+ 66,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 1),0.197,0.211,0.103,0.173,0.204,0.185,[0.173 0.197],<0.001,16%,8%
68
  67,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 2),0.2,0.202,0.111,0.17,0.201,0.185,[0.173 0.198],<0.001,17%,1%
69
+ 68,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 2),0.222,0.161,0.128,0.15,0.191,0.186,[0.174 0.197],<0.001,18%,11%
70
+ 69,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 3),0.195,0.206,0.119,0.176,0.201,0.186,[0.174 0.198],<0.001,16%,5%
71
+ 70,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news),0.203,0.201,0.115,0.171,0.202,0.187,[0.176 0.198],<0.001,16%,0%
72
+ 71,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 3),0.213,0.191,0.104,0.161,0.202,0.187,[0.178 0.197],<0.001,16%,4%
73
+ 72,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news),0.213,0.187,0.117,0.162,0.2,0.188,[0.177 0.199],<0.001,16%,0%
74
+ 73,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot with freeze values),0.218,0.196,0.09,0.159,0.207,0.189,[0.174 0.203],<0.001,16%,1%
75
+ 74,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.207,0.197,0.123,0.171,0.202,0.189,[0.174 0.204],<0.001,19%,0%
76
+ 75,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.224,0.159,0.148,0.155,0.191,0.189,[0.175 0.204],<0.001,18%,0%
77
+ 76,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news),0.234,0.179,0.092,0.148,0.206,0.191,[0.179 0.203],<0.001,18%,14%
78
+ 77,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.208,0.206,0.115,0.175,0.207,0.192,[0.183 0.2 ],<0.001,16%,0%
79
+ 78,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.234,0.182,0.09,0.15,0.208,0.192,[0.18 0.204],<0.001,18%,10%
80
+ 79,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 1),0.209,0.217,0.103,0.177,0.213,0.193,[0.18 0.206],<0.001,18%,4%
81
  80,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 1),0.216,0.205,0.107,0.171,0.21,0.193,[0.18 0.206],<0.001,16%,0%
82
+ 81,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot),0.218,0.203,0.104,0.169,0.211,0.193,[0.182 0.204],<0.001,15%,1%
83
+ 82,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot),0.213,0.212,0.111,0.177,0.213,0.195,[0.184 0.206],<0.001,16%,0%
84
  83,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.228,0.197,0.099,0.163,0.213,0.196,[0.186 0.205],<0.001,14%,13%
85
  84,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.229,0.195,0.103,0.163,0.212,0.196,[0.187 0.205],<0.001,15%,0%
86
+ 85,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot),0.203,0.216,0.141,0.19,0.209,0.196,[0.184 0.209],<0.001,16%,0%
87
+ 86,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.236,0.179,0.116,0.157,0.208,0.197,[0.185 0.208],<0.001,19%,12%
88
+ 87,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 2),0.207,0.218,0.127,0.187,0.213,0.197,[0.184 0.21 ],<0.001,16%,1%
89
+ 88,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 3),0.225,0.197,0.121,0.17,0.211,0.198,[0.187 0.209],<0.001,15%,9%
90
  89,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.234,0.183,0.123,0.162,0.209,0.198,[0.185 0.211],<0.001,17%,19%
91
+ 90,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.229,0.21,0.099,0.171,0.219,0.2,[0.189 0.211],<0.001,16%,0%
92
+ 91,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.207,0.222,0.14,0.193,0.214,0.2,[0.186 0.214],<0.001,16%,0%
93
+ 92,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.224,0.194,0.164,0.184,0.209,0.204,[0.188 0.219],<0.001,18%,0%
94
+ 93,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.26,0.181,0.099,0.153,0.22,0.206,[0.19 0.222],<0.001,23%,0%
95
  94,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot),0.217,0.212,0.165,0.196,0.214,0.206,[0.192 0.221],<0.001,18%,1%
96
+ 95,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.236,0.203,0.13,0.178,0.22,0.207,[0.193 0.22 ],<0.001,18%,11%
97
+ 96,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 2),0.242,0.21,0.115,0.177,0.226,0.21,[0.195 0.225],<0.001,18%,0%
98
+ 97,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.265,0.189,0.099,0.157,0.227,0.211,[0.197 0.225],<0.001,20%,21%
99
+ 98,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.242,0.209,0.13,0.181,0.226,0.212,[0.2 0.223],<0.001,15%,0%
100
+ 99,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.27,0.168,0.129,0.154,0.219,0.212,[0.201 0.223],<0.001,18%,17%
101
  100,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 2),0.246,0.21,0.119,0.178,0.228,0.212,[0.198 0.226],<0.001,18%,8%
102
+ 101,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.246,0.216,0.111,0.179,0.231,0.213,[0.203 0.223],<0.001,16%,1%
103
+ 102,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 2),0.243,0.224,0.115,0.186,0.233,0.214,[0.203 0.225],<0.001,16%,4%
104
+ 103,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news),0.242,0.218,0.127,0.186,0.23,0.214,[0.203 0.225],<0.001,15%,0%
105
+ 104,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.244,0.214,0.132,0.186,0.229,0.215,[0.198 0.231],<0.001,18%,0%
106
+ 105,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 2),0.257,0.21,0.112,0.176,0.234,0.216,[0.203 0.23 ],<0.001,18%,5%
107
+ 106,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.257,0.218,0.104,0.178,0.237,0.217,[0.205 0.23 ],<0.001,18%,10%
108
+ 107,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.274,0.199,0.103,0.165,0.237,0.22,[0.206 0.233],<0.001,19%,24%
109
+ 108,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 1),0.237,0.234,0.143,0.203,0.236,0.22,[0.206 0.234],<0.001,15%,20%
110
+ 109,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 2),0.231,0.244,0.159,0.214,0.237,0.223,[0.209 0.236],<0.001,15%,9%
111
+ 110,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.295,0.175,0.123,0.157,0.235,0.226,[0.212 0.239],<0.001,18%,17%
112
  111,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.291,0.17,0.144,0.161,0.231,0.226,[0.214 0.238],<0.001,18%,14%
113
+ 112,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 1),0.248,0.232,0.159,0.206,0.24,0.227,[0.213 0.242],<0.001,15%,25%
114
+ 113,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.291,0.186,0.123,0.164,0.238,0.227,[0.215 0.24 ],<0.001,17%,15%
115
+ 114,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot),0.244,0.24,0.158,0.211,0.242,0.228,[0.215 0.24 ],<0.001,15%,0%
116
+ 115,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 3),0.267,0.217,0.136,0.189,0.242,0.228,[0.216 0.239],<0.001,15%,5%
117
+ 116,ForecastBench,Always 0.5,0.25,0.25,0.133,0.209,0.25,0.23,[0.225 0.234],<0.001,14%,0%
118
  117,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.262,0.234,0.134,0.199,0.248,0.23,[0.22 0.241],<0.001,16%,1%
119
+ 118,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.289,0.197,0.129,0.173,0.243,0.231,[0.218 0.244],<0.001,20%,20%
120
  119,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.272,0.222,0.137,0.192,0.247,0.232,[0.22 0.244],<0.001,15%,0%
121
+ 120,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.26,0.234,0.159,0.208,0.247,0.234,[0.216 0.251],<0.001,19%,0%
122
+ 121,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot with freeze values),0.28,0.226,0.123,0.19,0.253,0.235,[0.222 0.247],<0.001,15%,1%
123
+ 122,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.262,0.249,0.138,0.211,0.255,0.236,[0.226 0.246],<0.001,16%,1%
124
+ 123,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.27,0.248,0.14,0.21,0.259,0.24,[0.229 0.252],<0.001,14%,1%
125
  124,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.272,0.246,0.149,0.212,0.259,0.242,[0.231 0.252],<0.001,15%,0%
126
+ 125,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad),0.27,0.262,0.136,0.218,0.266,0.244,[0.235 0.254],<0.001,15%,1%
127
  126,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 2),0.263,0.271,0.14,0.226,0.267,0.244,[0.233 0.255],<0.001,15%,5%
128
+ 127,ForecastBench,Always 0,0.269,0.218,0.231,0.222,0.243,0.246,[0.221 0.27 ],<0.001,46%,0%
129
+ 128,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot),0.28,0.253,0.137,0.212,0.266,0.246,[0.236 0.256],<0.001,15%,1%
130
+ 129,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 3),0.287,0.258,0.156,0.222,0.272,0.255,[0.245 0.264],<0.001,14%,18%
131
+ 130,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.305,0.252,0.122,0.207,0.278,0.256,[0.246 0.266],<0.001,14%,0%
132
+ 131,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.288,0.269,0.166,0.233,0.278,0.261,[0.25 0.271],<0.001,14%,0%
133
+ 132,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news),0.305,0.262,0.134,0.218,0.283,0.261,[0.251 0.271],<0.001,15%,1%
134
+ 133,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad),0.288,0.291,0.162,0.246,0.289,0.267,[0.256 0.278],<0.001,15%,0%
135
  134,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.304,0.288,0.189,0.254,0.296,0.279,[0.262 0.296],<0.001,17%,0%
136
  135,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 1),0.29,0.321,0.168,0.268,0.306,0.279,[0.265 0.292],<0.001,15%,6%
137
+ 136,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.304,0.337,0.186,0.284,0.32,0.294,[0.281 0.307],<0.001,16%,1%
138
+ 137,ForecastBench,Random Uniform,0.34,0.311,0.191,0.269,0.325,0.304,[0.287 0.322],<0.001,18%,0%
139
+ 138,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot with freeze values),0.446,0.257,0.171,0.227,0.351,0.337,[0.318 0.355],<0.001,20%,0%
140
+ 139,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot),0.446,0.32,0.2,0.279,0.383,0.362,[0.346 0.378],<0.001,17%,0%
141
  140,ForecastBench,Always 1,0.731,0.782,0.535,0.696,0.757,0.714,[0.688 0.74 ],<0.001,20%,0%
leaderboards/csv/human_leaderboard_overall.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,141 +1,141 @@
1
  Ranking,Organization,Model,Dataset Score (N=422),Market Score (resolved) (N=49),Market Score (unresolved) (N=27),Market Score (overall) (N=76),Overall Resolved Score (N=471),Overall Score (N=498),Overall Score 95% CI,Pairwise p-value comparing to No. 1 (bootstrapped),Pct. more accurate than No. 1,Pct. Imputed
2
- 1,ForecastBench,Superforecaster median forecast,0.118,0.084,0.056,0.074,0.101,0.096,[0.075 0.116],,0%,0%
3
  2,ForecastBench,Public median forecast,0.153,0.127,0.021,0.089,0.14,0.121,[0.101 0.141],<0.001,22%,0%
4
- 3,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.138,0.153,0.022,0.106,0.145,0.122,[0.099 0.146],<0.001,31%,0%
5
  4,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.142,0.155,0.035,0.112,0.148,0.127,[0.104 0.15 ],<0.001,29%,0%
6
- 5,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with freeze values),0.162,0.136,0.019,0.095,0.149,0.128,[0.105 0.151],<0.001,32%,0%
7
  6,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot with freeze values),0.145,0.168,0.024,0.117,0.157,0.131,[0.103 0.159],<0.001,31%,0%
8
- 7,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot with freeze values),0.167,0.136,0.023,0.096,0.152,0.132,[0.109 0.155],<0.001,31%,0%
9
- 8,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.162,0.136,0.047,0.104,0.149,0.133,[0.113 0.153],<0.001,25%,0%
10
  9,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad),0.138,0.179,0.05,0.133,0.158,0.136,[0.113 0.158],<0.001,28%,0%
11
  10,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with freeze values),0.161,0.153,0.04,0.113,0.157,0.137,[0.115 0.158],<0.001,27%,0%
12
  11,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news),0.142,0.173,0.072,0.137,0.157,0.139,[0.117 0.161],<0.001,26%,0%
13
- 12,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with freeze values),0.163,0.162,0.03,0.115,0.163,0.139,[0.114 0.164],<0.001,23%,0%
14
  13,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 3),0.158,0.161,0.054,0.123,0.159,0.14,[0.12 0.161],<0.001,25%,4%
15
  14,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad),0.161,0.16,0.06,0.125,0.161,0.143,[0.125 0.16 ],<0.001,24%,0%
16
  15,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 1),0.15,0.18,0.054,0.135,0.165,0.143,[0.12 0.165],<0.001,25%,0%
17
  16,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news),0.162,0.164,0.056,0.126,0.163,0.144,[0.122 0.165],<0.001,22%,0%
18
- 17,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.16,0.157,0.076,0.128,0.159,0.144,[0.125 0.163],<0.001,23%,0%
19
  18,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot with freeze values),0.173,0.164,0.031,0.116,0.168,0.145,[0.121 0.169],<0.001,23%,0%
20
- 19,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.163,0.166,0.065,0.13,0.164,0.146,[0.127 0.165],<0.001,23%,1%
21
- 20,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad),0.162,0.169,0.062,0.131,0.166,0.147,[0.129 0.164],<0.001,23%,1%
22
  21,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with freeze values),0.161,0.167,0.072,0.133,0.164,0.147,[0.129 0.165],<0.001,22%,0%
23
- 22,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot),0.162,0.174,0.068,0.137,0.168,0.149,[0.129 0.17 ],<0.001,23%,0%
24
- 23,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.176,0.155,0.065,0.123,0.166,0.15,[0.126 0.173],<0.001,26%,0%
25
- 24,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with freeze values),0.162,0.168,0.082,0.138,0.165,0.15,[0.132 0.168],<0.001,22%,0%
26
- 25,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.174,0.171,0.046,0.126,0.172,0.15,[0.13 0.17],<0.001,21%,1%
27
  26,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot),0.145,0.194,0.085,0.155,0.17,0.15,[0.123 0.177],<0.001,24%,0%
28
- 27,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news),0.163,0.168,0.093,0.141,0.165,0.152,[0.133 0.171],<0.001,22%,0%
29
- 28,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 1),0.157,0.192,0.066,0.147,0.174,0.152,[0.131 0.174],<0.001,22%,1%
30
- 29,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.178,0.137,0.111,0.127,0.157,0.153,[0.13 0.175],<0.001,25%,1%
31
- 30,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot with freeze values),0.197,0.158,0.019,0.109,0.178,0.153,[0.128 0.178],<0.001,26%,0%
32
  31,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.191,0.154,0.047,0.116,0.172,0.153,[0.135 0.171],<0.001,25%,0%
33
  32,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.181,0.169,0.052,0.127,0.175,0.154,[0.137 0.172],<0.001,21%,0%
34
- 33,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad),0.176,0.169,0.065,0.132,0.173,0.154,[0.137 0.171],<0.001,23%,0%
35
- 34,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot with freeze values),0.185,0.173,0.035,0.124,0.179,0.155,[0.127 0.182],<0.001,25%,0%
36
  35,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad),0.16,0.196,0.064,0.149,0.178,0.155,[0.136 0.173],<0.001,22%,1%
37
  36,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad),0.174,0.172,0.074,0.137,0.173,0.155,[0.14 0.171],<0.001,18%,1%
38
- 37,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot with freeze values),0.197,0.157,0.039,0.115,0.177,0.156,[0.134 0.179],<0.001,20%,0%
39
- 38,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.217,0.118,0.054,0.095,0.167,0.156,[0.138 0.174],<0.001,24%,23%
40
  39,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with freeze values),0.191,0.173,0.038,0.125,0.182,0.158,[0.13 0.186],<0.001,23%,0%
41
- 40,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.185,0.165,0.068,0.13,0.175,0.158,[0.131 0.185],<0.001,24%,0%
42
  41,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.194,0.174,0.034,0.124,0.184,0.159,[0.133 0.185],<0.001,25%,0%
43
  42,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news),0.178,0.18,0.078,0.144,0.179,0.161,[0.14 0.182],<0.001,24%,0%
44
- 43,ForecastBench,Imputed Forecaster,0.25,0.103,0.017,0.073,0.177,0.161,[0.142 0.18 ],<0.001,26%,100%
45
  44,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with freeze values),0.183,0.182,0.066,0.141,0.183,0.162,[0.144 0.18 ],<0.001,18%,0%
46
- 45,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad),0.217,0.121,0.086,0.109,0.169,0.163,[0.143 0.183],<0.001,22%,24%
47
- 46,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.179,0.188,0.073,0.147,0.184,0.163,[0.144 0.183],<0.001,22%,0%
48
  47,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.221,0.155,0.02,0.107,0.188,0.164,[0.141 0.188],<0.001,27%,1%
49
  48,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad),0.161,0.198,0.113,0.168,0.18,0.165,[0.146 0.183],<0.001,22%,0%
50
- 49,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.197,0.162,0.079,0.133,0.18,0.165,[0.144 0.186],<0.001,19%,0%
51
  50,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot),0.163,0.22,0.072,0.167,0.192,0.165,[0.14 0.191],<0.001,18%,0%
52
- 51,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot),0.167,0.197,0.106,0.165,0.182,0.166,[0.147 0.185],<0.001,22%,0%
53
- 52,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 3),0.198,0.177,0.056,0.134,0.187,0.166,[0.146 0.186],<0.001,21%,9%
54
- 53,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3),0.183,0.179,0.096,0.15,0.181,0.166,[0.146 0.186],<0.001,22%,0%
55
  54,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.201,0.175,0.059,0.133,0.188,0.167,[0.149 0.185],<0.001,23%,0%
56
  55,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.201,0.17,0.073,0.136,0.186,0.168,[0.152 0.185],<0.001,22%,0%
57
- 56,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot),0.197,0.174,0.077,0.139,0.186,0.168,[0.147 0.19 ],<0.001,21%,0%
58
- 57,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news),0.179,0.2,0.087,0.16,0.19,0.17,[0.15 0.189],<0.001,21%,0%
59
  58,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.181,0.192,0.098,0.159,0.187,0.17,[0.152 0.187],<0.001,20%,0%
60
  59,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad),0.183,0.201,0.081,0.158,0.192,0.171,[0.152 0.189],<0.001,19%,0%
61
  60,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.183,0.199,0.09,0.161,0.191,0.172,[0.15 0.193],<0.001,23%,0%
62
  61,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 3),0.177,0.209,0.091,0.167,0.193,0.172,[0.15 0.194],<0.001,22%,8%
63
- 62,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 2),0.194,0.193,0.074,0.151,0.194,0.172,[0.15 0.195],<0.001,22%,0%
64
- 63,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.206,0.167,0.088,0.139,0.186,0.172,[0.147 0.198],<0.001,23%,0%
65
  64,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 3),0.199,0.18,0.088,0.147,0.19,0.173,[0.151 0.195],<0.001,20%,13%
66
  65,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.205,0.162,0.112,0.144,0.183,0.174,[0.154 0.195],<0.001,27%,15%
67
  66,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news),0.183,0.208,0.093,0.167,0.195,0.175,[0.154 0.196],<0.001,22%,0%
68
- 67,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with freeze values),0.214,0.169,0.076,0.136,0.192,0.175,[0.153 0.198],<0.001,18%,0%
69
  68,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot),0.173,0.205,0.131,0.179,0.189,0.176,[0.15 0.202],<0.001,20%,0%
70
- 69,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.225,0.165,0.061,0.128,0.195,0.177,[0.161 0.192],<0.001,23%,0%
71
- 70,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 2),0.174,0.21,0.125,0.18,0.192,0.177,[0.152 0.202],<0.001,22%,0%
72
- 71,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 1),0.203,0.2,0.067,0.153,0.201,0.178,[0.153 0.202],<0.001,22%,0%
73
  72,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot),0.185,0.215,0.093,0.171,0.2,0.178,[0.15 0.206],<0.001,22%,0%
74
- 73,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.225,0.187,0.029,0.131,0.206,0.178,[0.148 0.208],<0.001,28%,0%
75
- 74,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.201,0.18,0.111,0.156,0.191,0.178,[0.158 0.199],<0.001,22%,0%
76
  75,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.214,0.165,0.104,0.143,0.189,0.179,[0.161 0.196],<0.001,16%,20%
77
- 76,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot),0.197,0.199,0.092,0.161,0.198,0.179,[0.159 0.199],<0.001,15%,1%
78
- 77,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.214,0.176,0.09,0.145,0.195,0.18,[0.158 0.202],<0.001,22%,4%
79
  78,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 1),0.202,0.204,0.074,0.158,0.203,0.18,[0.153 0.207],<0.001,25%,0%
80
  79,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.22,0.164,0.099,0.141,0.192,0.181,[0.157 0.204],<0.001,21%,0%
81
  80,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.236,0.159,0.066,0.126,0.198,0.181,[0.162 0.2 ],<0.001,17%,5%
82
- 81,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.206,0.191,0.093,0.156,0.198,0.181,[0.154 0.207],<0.001,23%,0%
83
- 82,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.212,0.19,0.09,0.155,0.201,0.183,[0.158 0.208],<0.001,21%,0%
84
- 83,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.237,0.167,0.063,0.131,0.202,0.184,[0.166 0.202],<0.001,15%,44%
85
  84,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.237,0.168,0.064,0.131,0.202,0.184,[0.166 0.202],<0.001,16%,44%
86
- 85,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.237,0.168,0.063,0.131,0.203,0.184,[0.165 0.203],<0.001,16%,44%
87
- 86,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news),0.214,0.181,0.105,0.154,0.198,0.184,[0.161 0.207],<0.001,21%,9%
88
- 87,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 1),0.201,0.221,0.068,0.167,0.211,0.184,[0.16 0.208],<0.001,22%,0%
89
  88,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 1),0.195,0.218,0.098,0.175,0.207,0.185,[0.16 0.21],<0.001,20%,0%
90
  89,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.194,0.218,0.101,0.177,0.206,0.186,[0.162 0.209],<0.001,21%,0%
91
  90,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news),0.201,0.211,0.102,0.172,0.206,0.187,[0.165 0.208],<0.001,21%,0%
92
- 91,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 2),0.229,0.171,0.097,0.145,0.2,0.187,[0.162 0.212],<0.001,23%,1%
93
- 92,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.191,0.22,0.117,0.184,0.206,0.187,[0.171 0.204],<0.001,24%,0%
94
  93,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.185,0.224,0.13,0.19,0.205,0.188,[0.161 0.215],<0.001,19%,0%
95
  94,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad),0.214,0.195,0.103,0.162,0.204,0.188,[0.167 0.209],<0.001,17%,0%
96
  95,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot),0.191,0.227,0.121,0.189,0.209,0.19,[0.162 0.217],<0.001,18%,0%
97
- 96,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news),0.22,0.182,0.117,0.159,0.201,0.19,[0.168 0.212],<0.001,20%,0%
98
  97,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 1),0.212,0.208,0.097,0.169,0.21,0.19,[0.165 0.216],<0.001,22%,0%
99
  98,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 3),0.212,0.213,0.092,0.17,0.213,0.191,[0.171 0.211],<0.001,21%,7%
100
  99,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.225,0.19,0.109,0.161,0.208,0.193,[0.165 0.222],<0.001,21%,0%
101
- 100,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.251,0.162,0.091,0.137,0.207,0.194,[0.17 0.219],<0.001,29%,22%
102
  101,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot),0.221,0.214,0.09,0.17,0.218,0.196,[0.175 0.216],<0.001,19%,0%
103
  102,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 2),0.217,0.212,0.107,0.175,0.215,0.196,[0.171 0.221],<0.001,25%,2%
104
  103,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.225,0.224,0.072,0.17,0.224,0.197,[0.18 0.215],<0.001,22%,0%
105
  104,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.235,0.194,0.098,0.16,0.215,0.198,[0.179 0.216],<0.001,23%,2%
106
  105,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 3),0.231,0.196,0.109,0.165,0.214,0.198,[0.177 0.219],<0.001,21%,9%
107
- 106,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 2),0.209,0.225,0.118,0.187,0.217,0.198,[0.173 0.223],<0.001,21%,1%
108
  107,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.227,0.195,0.124,0.17,0.211,0.198,[0.176 0.221],<0.001,23%,6%
109
- 108,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.248,0.194,0.073,0.151,0.221,0.2,[0.174 0.225],<0.001,26%,15%
110
- 109,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 2),0.22,0.221,0.122,0.185,0.22,0.203,[0.174 0.231],<0.001,21%,0%
111
- 110,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.205,0.229,0.15,0.201,0.217,0.203,[0.174 0.232],<0.001,24%,11%
112
- 111,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 2),0.225,0.232,0.096,0.183,0.228,0.204,[0.183 0.226],<0.001,22%,4%
113
- 112,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.233,0.234,0.072,0.176,0.234,0.205,[0.178 0.232],<0.001,25%,1%
114
  113,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 3),0.236,0.212,0.108,0.175,0.224,0.206,[0.182 0.23 ],<0.001,19%,11%
115
- 114,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.226,0.234,0.097,0.186,0.23,0.206,[0.19 0.222],<0.001,22%,0%
116
- 115,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 2),0.228,0.216,0.139,0.188,0.222,0.208,[0.183 0.234],<0.001,20%,0%
117
  116,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.295,0.129,0.116,0.124,0.212,0.21,[0.19 0.229],<0.001,23%,13%
118
  117,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.238,0.231,0.094,0.182,0.234,0.21,[0.191 0.229],<0.001,22%,0%
119
- 118,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 2),0.233,0.221,0.127,0.188,0.227,0.21,[0.191 0.229],<0.001,20%,0%
120
  119,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.25,0.184,0.152,0.173,0.217,0.211,[0.189 0.233],<0.001,23%,14%
121
- 120,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 1),0.231,0.245,0.102,0.194,0.238,0.212,[0.184 0.24 ],<0.001,22%,1%
122
  121,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad),0.238,0.228,0.116,0.188,0.233,0.213,[0.195 0.231],<0.001,22%,0%
123
- 122,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot with freeze values),0.301,0.161,0.069,0.129,0.231,0.215,[0.197 0.233],<0.001,19%,1%
124
  123,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.226,0.253,0.141,0.213,0.24,0.22,[0.201 0.239],<0.001,22%,1%
125
  124,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.241,0.235,0.136,0.2,0.238,0.221,[0.195 0.246],<0.001,23%,11%
126
- 125,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.26,0.23,0.095,0.182,0.245,0.221,[0.197 0.246],<0.001,23%,4%
127
- 126,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.258,0.241,0.104,0.192,0.249,0.225,[0.206 0.245],<0.001,22%,0%
128
- 127,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.277,0.215,0.104,0.176,0.246,0.226,[0.209 0.244],<0.001,21%,0%
129
  128,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news),0.277,0.212,0.113,0.177,0.244,0.227,[0.21 0.244],<0.001,21%,0%
130
  129,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.295,0.192,0.103,0.161,0.244,0.228,[0.204 0.252],<0.001,22%,14%
131
- 130,ForecastBench,Always 0.5,0.25,0.25,0.131,0.208,0.25,0.229,[0.22 0.238],<0.001,16%,0%
132
  131,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad),0.258,0.249,0.127,0.206,0.254,0.232,[0.212 0.252],<0.001,20%,0%
133
  132,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot),0.301,0.204,0.103,0.168,0.253,0.235,[0.216 0.253],<0.001,18%,1%
134
  133,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 3),0.266,0.244,0.148,0.21,0.255,0.238,[0.219 0.257],<0.001,18%,26%
135
- 134,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.233,0.322,0.126,0.252,0.277,0.243,[0.215 0.27 ],<0.001,23%,1%
136
  135,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 1),0.286,0.295,0.113,0.23,0.29,0.258,[0.232 0.284],<0.001,22%,0%
137
  136,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot with freeze values),0.422,0.159,0.073,0.128,0.29,0.275,[0.247 0.304],<0.001,29%,0%
138
- 137,ForecastBench,Always 0,0.329,0.286,0.206,0.257,0.308,0.293,[0.242 0.345],<0.001,41%,0%
139
- 138,ForecastBench,Random Uniform,0.357,0.302,0.193,0.263,0.329,0.31,[0.274 0.346],<0.001,22%,0%
140
- 139,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot),0.422,0.256,0.17,0.226,0.339,0.324,[0.293 0.355],<0.001,21%,0%
141
- 140,ForecastBench,Always 1,0.671,0.714,0.557,0.658,0.692,0.665,[0.61 0.719],<0.001,26%,0%
 
1
  Ranking,Organization,Model,Dataset Score (N=422),Market Score (resolved) (N=49),Market Score (unresolved) (N=27),Market Score (overall) (N=76),Overall Resolved Score (N=471),Overall Score (N=498),Overall Score 95% CI,Pairwise p-value comparing to No. 1 (bootstrapped),Pct. more accurate than No. 1,Pct. Imputed
2
+ 1,ForecastBench,Superforecaster median forecast,0.118,0.084,0.058,0.074,0.101,0.096,[0.076 0.116],,0%,0%
3
  2,ForecastBench,Public median forecast,0.153,0.127,0.021,0.089,0.14,0.121,[0.101 0.141],<0.001,22%,0%
4
+ 3,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.138,0.153,0.023,0.107,0.145,0.122,[0.099 0.146],<0.001,31%,0%
5
  4,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.142,0.155,0.035,0.112,0.148,0.127,[0.104 0.15 ],<0.001,29%,0%
6
+ 5,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with freeze values),0.162,0.136,0.02,0.095,0.149,0.128,[0.105 0.151],<0.001,32%,0%
7
  6,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot with freeze values),0.145,0.168,0.024,0.117,0.157,0.131,[0.103 0.159],<0.001,31%,0%
8
+ 7,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot with freeze values),0.167,0.136,0.024,0.096,0.152,0.132,[0.109 0.155],<0.001,31%,0%
9
+ 8,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.162,0.136,0.048,0.105,0.149,0.133,[0.113 0.154],<0.001,25%,0%
10
  9,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad),0.138,0.179,0.05,0.133,0.158,0.136,[0.113 0.158],<0.001,28%,0%
11
  10,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with freeze values),0.161,0.153,0.04,0.113,0.157,0.137,[0.115 0.158],<0.001,27%,0%
12
  11,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news),0.142,0.173,0.072,0.137,0.157,0.139,[0.117 0.161],<0.001,26%,0%
13
+ 12,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with freeze values),0.163,0.162,0.031,0.115,0.163,0.139,[0.114 0.164],<0.001,23%,0%
14
  13,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 3),0.158,0.161,0.054,0.123,0.159,0.14,[0.12 0.161],<0.001,25%,4%
15
  14,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad),0.161,0.16,0.06,0.125,0.161,0.143,[0.125 0.16 ],<0.001,24%,0%
16
  15,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 1),0.15,0.18,0.054,0.135,0.165,0.143,[0.12 0.165],<0.001,25%,0%
17
  16,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news),0.162,0.164,0.056,0.126,0.163,0.144,[0.122 0.165],<0.001,22%,0%
18
+ 17,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.16,0.157,0.077,0.129,0.159,0.144,[0.125 0.163],<0.001,23%,0%
19
  18,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot with freeze values),0.173,0.164,0.031,0.116,0.168,0.145,[0.121 0.169],<0.001,23%,0%
20
+ 19,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.163,0.166,0.064,0.13,0.164,0.146,[0.127 0.165],<0.001,23%,1%
21
+ 20,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad),0.162,0.169,0.063,0.131,0.166,0.147,[0.129 0.164],<0.001,23%,1%
22
  21,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with freeze values),0.161,0.167,0.072,0.133,0.164,0.147,[0.129 0.165],<0.001,22%,0%
23
+ 22,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot),0.162,0.174,0.069,0.137,0.168,0.149,[0.129 0.17 ],<0.001,23%,0%
24
+ 23,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.176,0.155,0.066,0.123,0.166,0.15,[0.126 0.173],<0.001,26%,0%
25
+ 24,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.174,0.171,0.046,0.126,0.172,0.15,[0.13 0.17],<0.001,21%,1%
26
+ 25,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with freeze values),0.162,0.168,0.082,0.138,0.165,0.15,[0.132 0.169],<0.001,22%,0%
27
  26,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot),0.145,0.194,0.085,0.155,0.17,0.15,[0.123 0.177],<0.001,24%,0%
28
+ 27,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news),0.163,0.168,0.094,0.141,0.165,0.152,[0.133 0.171],<0.001,22%,0%
29
+ 28,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 1),0.157,0.192,0.067,0.147,0.174,0.152,[0.131 0.174],<0.001,22%,1%
30
+ 29,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.178,0.137,0.111,0.128,0.157,0.153,[0.13 0.175],<0.001,25%,1%
31
+ 30,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot with freeze values),0.197,0.158,0.02,0.109,0.178,0.153,[0.128 0.178],<0.001,26%,0%
32
  31,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.191,0.154,0.047,0.116,0.172,0.153,[0.135 0.171],<0.001,25%,0%
33
  32,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.181,0.169,0.052,0.127,0.175,0.154,[0.137 0.172],<0.001,21%,0%
34
+ 33,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad),0.176,0.169,0.066,0.133,0.173,0.154,[0.137 0.171],<0.001,23%,0%
35
+ 34,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot with freeze values),0.185,0.173,0.036,0.124,0.179,0.155,[0.127 0.182],<0.001,25%,0%
36
  35,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad),0.16,0.196,0.064,0.149,0.178,0.155,[0.136 0.173],<0.001,22%,1%
37
  36,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad),0.174,0.172,0.074,0.137,0.173,0.155,[0.14 0.171],<0.001,18%,1%
38
+ 37,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot with freeze values),0.197,0.157,0.04,0.115,0.177,0.156,[0.134 0.179],<0.001,20%,0%
39
+ 38,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.217,0.118,0.054,0.095,0.167,0.156,[0.138 0.175],<0.001,24%,23%
40
  39,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with freeze values),0.191,0.173,0.038,0.125,0.182,0.158,[0.13 0.186],<0.001,23%,0%
41
+ 40,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.185,0.165,0.069,0.13,0.175,0.158,[0.131 0.185],<0.001,24%,0%
42
  41,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.194,0.174,0.034,0.124,0.184,0.159,[0.133 0.185],<0.001,25%,0%
43
  42,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news),0.178,0.18,0.078,0.144,0.179,0.161,[0.14 0.182],<0.001,24%,0%
44
+ 43,ForecastBench,Imputed Forecaster,0.25,0.103,0.017,0.073,0.177,0.161,[0.142 0.181],<0.001,26%,100%
45
  44,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with freeze values),0.183,0.182,0.066,0.141,0.183,0.162,[0.144 0.18 ],<0.001,18%,0%
46
+ 45,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad),0.217,0.121,0.087,0.109,0.169,0.163,[0.143 0.183],<0.001,22%,24%
47
+ 46,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.179,0.188,0.074,0.148,0.184,0.163,[0.144 0.183],<0.001,22%,0%
48
  47,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.221,0.155,0.02,0.107,0.188,0.164,[0.141 0.188],<0.001,27%,1%
49
  48,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad),0.161,0.198,0.113,0.168,0.18,0.165,[0.146 0.183],<0.001,22%,0%
50
+ 49,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.197,0.162,0.078,0.133,0.18,0.165,[0.144 0.186],<0.001,19%,0%
51
  50,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot),0.163,0.22,0.072,0.167,0.192,0.165,[0.14 0.191],<0.001,18%,0%
52
+ 51,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 3),0.198,0.177,0.056,0.134,0.187,0.166,[0.146 0.186],<0.001,21%,9%
53
+ 52,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot),0.167,0.197,0.106,0.165,0.182,0.166,[0.147 0.185],<0.001,22%,0%
54
+ 53,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3),0.183,0.179,0.098,0.15,0.181,0.166,[0.147 0.186],<0.001,22%,0%
55
  54,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.201,0.175,0.059,0.133,0.188,0.167,[0.149 0.185],<0.001,23%,0%
56
  55,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.201,0.17,0.073,0.136,0.186,0.168,[0.152 0.185],<0.001,22%,0%
57
+ 56,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot),0.197,0.174,0.078,0.14,0.186,0.169,[0.147 0.19 ],<0.001,21%,0%
58
+ 57,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news),0.179,0.2,0.088,0.16,0.19,0.17,[0.15 0.189],<0.001,21%,0%
59
  58,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.181,0.192,0.098,0.159,0.187,0.17,[0.152 0.187],<0.001,20%,0%
60
  59,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad),0.183,0.201,0.081,0.158,0.192,0.171,[0.152 0.189],<0.001,19%,0%
61
  60,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.183,0.199,0.09,0.161,0.191,0.172,[0.15 0.193],<0.001,23%,0%
62
  61,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 3),0.177,0.209,0.091,0.167,0.193,0.172,[0.15 0.194],<0.001,22%,8%
63
+ 62,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 2),0.194,0.193,0.073,0.151,0.194,0.172,[0.149 0.195],<0.001,22%,0%
64
+ 63,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.206,0.167,0.09,0.139,0.186,0.173,[0.147 0.198],<0.001,23%,0%
65
  64,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 3),0.199,0.18,0.088,0.147,0.19,0.173,[0.151 0.195],<0.001,20%,13%
66
  65,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.205,0.162,0.112,0.144,0.183,0.174,[0.154 0.195],<0.001,27%,15%
67
  66,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news),0.183,0.208,0.093,0.167,0.195,0.175,[0.154 0.196],<0.001,22%,0%
68
+ 67,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with freeze values),0.214,0.169,0.077,0.136,0.192,0.175,[0.153 0.198],<0.001,18%,0%
69
  68,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot),0.173,0.205,0.131,0.179,0.189,0.176,[0.15 0.202],<0.001,20%,0%
70
+ 69,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.225,0.165,0.062,0.128,0.195,0.177,[0.161 0.192],<0.001,23%,0%
71
+ 70,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 2),0.174,0.21,0.124,0.179,0.192,0.177,[0.152 0.202],<0.001,22%,0%
72
+ 71,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 1),0.203,0.2,0.068,0.153,0.201,0.178,[0.153 0.202],<0.001,22%,0%
73
  72,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot),0.185,0.215,0.093,0.171,0.2,0.178,[0.15 0.206],<0.001,22%,0%
74
+ 73,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.225,0.187,0.03,0.131,0.206,0.178,[0.148 0.208],<0.001,28%,0%
75
+ 74,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.201,0.18,0.112,0.156,0.191,0.178,[0.158 0.199],<0.001,22%,0%
76
  75,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.214,0.165,0.104,0.143,0.189,0.179,[0.161 0.196],<0.001,16%,20%
77
+ 76,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot),0.197,0.199,0.093,0.161,0.198,0.179,[0.16 0.199],<0.001,15%,1%
78
+ 77,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.214,0.176,0.091,0.146,0.195,0.18,[0.158 0.202],<0.001,22%,4%
79
  78,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 1),0.202,0.204,0.074,0.158,0.203,0.18,[0.153 0.207],<0.001,25%,0%
80
  79,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.22,0.164,0.099,0.141,0.192,0.181,[0.157 0.204],<0.001,21%,0%
81
  80,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.236,0.159,0.066,0.126,0.198,0.181,[0.162 0.2 ],<0.001,17%,5%
82
+ 81,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.206,0.191,0.094,0.156,0.198,0.181,[0.155 0.208],<0.001,23%,0%
83
+ 82,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.212,0.19,0.091,0.155,0.201,0.183,[0.158 0.209],<0.001,21%,0%
84
+ 83,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.237,0.167,0.064,0.131,0.202,0.184,[0.166 0.202],<0.001,15%,44%
85
  84,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.237,0.168,0.064,0.131,0.202,0.184,[0.166 0.202],<0.001,16%,44%
86
+ 85,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.237,0.168,0.064,0.131,0.203,0.184,[0.165 0.203],<0.001,16%,44%
87
+ 86,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news),0.214,0.181,0.106,0.155,0.198,0.184,[0.161 0.207],<0.001,21%,9%
88
+ 87,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 1),0.201,0.221,0.07,0.168,0.211,0.185,[0.16 0.209],<0.001,22%,0%
89
  88,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 1),0.195,0.218,0.098,0.175,0.207,0.185,[0.16 0.21],<0.001,20%,0%
90
  89,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.194,0.218,0.101,0.177,0.206,0.186,[0.162 0.209],<0.001,21%,0%
91
  90,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news),0.201,0.211,0.102,0.172,0.206,0.187,[0.165 0.208],<0.001,21%,0%
92
+ 91,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 2),0.229,0.171,0.098,0.145,0.2,0.187,[0.162 0.212],<0.001,23%,1%
93
+ 92,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.191,0.22,0.118,0.184,0.206,0.187,[0.171 0.204],<0.001,24%,0%
94
  93,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.185,0.224,0.13,0.19,0.205,0.188,[0.161 0.215],<0.001,19%,0%
95
  94,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad),0.214,0.195,0.103,0.162,0.204,0.188,[0.167 0.209],<0.001,17%,0%
96
  95,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot),0.191,0.227,0.121,0.189,0.209,0.19,[0.162 0.217],<0.001,18%,0%
97
+ 96,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news),0.22,0.182,0.118,0.159,0.201,0.19,[0.168 0.212],<0.001,20%,0%
98
  97,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 1),0.212,0.208,0.097,0.169,0.21,0.19,[0.165 0.216],<0.001,22%,0%
99
  98,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 3),0.212,0.213,0.092,0.17,0.213,0.191,[0.171 0.211],<0.001,21%,7%
100
  99,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.225,0.19,0.109,0.161,0.208,0.193,[0.165 0.222],<0.001,21%,0%
101
+ 100,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.251,0.162,0.09,0.137,0.207,0.194,[0.169 0.219],<0.001,29%,22%
102
  101,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot),0.221,0.214,0.09,0.17,0.218,0.196,[0.175 0.216],<0.001,19%,0%
103
  102,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 2),0.217,0.212,0.107,0.175,0.215,0.196,[0.171 0.221],<0.001,25%,2%
104
  103,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.225,0.224,0.072,0.17,0.224,0.197,[0.18 0.215],<0.001,22%,0%
105
  104,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.235,0.194,0.098,0.16,0.215,0.198,[0.179 0.216],<0.001,23%,2%
106
  105,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 3),0.231,0.196,0.109,0.165,0.214,0.198,[0.177 0.219],<0.001,21%,9%
107
+ 106,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 2),0.209,0.225,0.119,0.187,0.217,0.198,[0.173 0.224],<0.001,21%,1%
108
  107,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.227,0.195,0.124,0.17,0.211,0.198,[0.176 0.221],<0.001,23%,6%
109
+ 108,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.248,0.194,0.073,0.151,0.221,0.2,[0.174 0.226],<0.001,26%,15%
110
+ 109,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.205,0.229,0.149,0.201,0.217,0.203,[0.174 0.232],<0.001,24%,11%
111
+ 110,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 2),0.22,0.221,0.122,0.186,0.22,0.203,[0.174 0.232],<0.001,21%,0%
112
+ 111,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 2),0.225,0.232,0.095,0.183,0.228,0.204,[0.182 0.226],<0.001,22%,4%
113
+ 112,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.233,0.234,0.071,0.176,0.234,0.205,[0.177 0.232],<0.001,25%,1%
114
  113,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 3),0.236,0.212,0.108,0.175,0.224,0.206,[0.182 0.23 ],<0.001,19%,11%
115
+ 114,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.226,0.234,0.098,0.186,0.23,0.206,[0.19 0.222],<0.001,22%,0%
116
+ 115,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 2),0.228,0.216,0.138,0.188,0.222,0.208,[0.182 0.234],<0.001,20%,0%
117
  116,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.295,0.129,0.116,0.124,0.212,0.21,[0.19 0.229],<0.001,23%,13%
118
  117,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.238,0.231,0.094,0.182,0.234,0.21,[0.191 0.229],<0.001,22%,0%
119
+ 118,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 2),0.233,0.221,0.127,0.187,0.227,0.21,[0.191 0.229],<0.001,20%,0%
120
  119,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.25,0.184,0.152,0.173,0.217,0.211,[0.189 0.233],<0.001,23%,14%
121
+ 120,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 1),0.231,0.245,0.102,0.194,0.238,0.213,[0.185 0.241],<0.001,22%,1%
122
  121,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad),0.238,0.228,0.116,0.188,0.233,0.213,[0.195 0.231],<0.001,22%,0%
123
+ 122,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot with freeze values),0.301,0.161,0.07,0.129,0.231,0.215,[0.197 0.233],<0.001,19%,1%
124
  123,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.226,0.253,0.141,0.213,0.24,0.22,[0.201 0.239],<0.001,22%,1%
125
  124,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.241,0.235,0.136,0.2,0.238,0.221,[0.195 0.246],<0.001,23%,11%
126
+ 125,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.26,0.23,0.096,0.183,0.245,0.221,[0.197 0.246],<0.001,23%,4%
127
+ 126,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.258,0.241,0.105,0.192,0.249,0.225,[0.206 0.245],<0.001,22%,0%
128
+ 127,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.277,0.215,0.105,0.176,0.246,0.226,[0.209 0.244],<0.001,21%,0%
129
  128,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news),0.277,0.212,0.113,0.177,0.244,0.227,[0.21 0.244],<0.001,21%,0%
130
  129,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.295,0.192,0.103,0.161,0.244,0.228,[0.204 0.252],<0.001,22%,14%
131
+ 130,ForecastBench,Always 0.5,0.25,0.25,0.132,0.208,0.25,0.229,[0.22 0.238],<0.001,16%,0%
132
  131,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad),0.258,0.249,0.127,0.206,0.254,0.232,[0.212 0.252],<0.001,20%,0%
133
  132,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot),0.301,0.204,0.103,0.168,0.253,0.235,[0.216 0.253],<0.001,18%,1%
134
  133,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 3),0.266,0.244,0.148,0.21,0.255,0.238,[0.219 0.257],<0.001,18%,26%
135
+ 134,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.233,0.322,0.127,0.252,0.277,0.243,[0.215 0.27 ],<0.001,23%,1%
136
  135,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 1),0.286,0.295,0.113,0.23,0.29,0.258,[0.232 0.284],<0.001,22%,0%
137
  136,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot with freeze values),0.422,0.159,0.073,0.128,0.29,0.275,[0.247 0.304],<0.001,29%,0%
138
+ 137,ForecastBench,Always 0,0.329,0.286,0.208,0.258,0.308,0.294,[0.242 0.345],<0.001,41%,0%
139
+ 138,ForecastBench,Random Uniform,0.357,0.302,0.194,0.264,0.329,0.31,[0.274 0.346],<0.001,22%,0%
140
+ 139,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot),0.422,0.256,0.171,0.226,0.339,0.324,[0.293 0.355],<0.001,21%,0%
141
+ 140,ForecastBench,Always 1,0.671,0.714,0.556,0.658,0.692,0.664,[0.61 0.719],<0.001,26%,0%
leaderboards/csv/leaderboard_overall.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,139 +1,139 @@
1
  Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=5,492)",Market Score (resolved) (N=513),Market Score (unresolved) (N=384),Market Score (overall) (N=897),"Overall Resolved Score (N=6,005)","Overall Score (N=6,389)",Overall Score 95% CI,Pairwise p-value comparing to No. 1 (bootstrapped),Pct. more accurate than No. 1,Pct. Imputed
2
  1,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.169,0.112,0.032,0.078,0.141,0.123,[0.117 0.129],,0%,0%
3
- 2,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.172,0.107,0.043,0.079,0.139,0.126,[0.12 0.132],0.093,43%,0%
4
- 3,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with freeze values),0.186,0.096,0.033,0.069,0.141,0.128,[0.122 0.133],<0.01,43%,0%
5
- 4,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with freeze values),0.162,0.134,0.068,0.105,0.148,0.134,[0.128 0.139],<0.001,35%,0%
6
- 5,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.19,0.115,0.042,0.084,0.153,0.137,[0.131 0.143],<0.001,39%,0%
7
- 6,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.166,0.138,0.074,0.111,0.152,0.139,[0.133 0.144],<0.001,34%,1%
8
- 7,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with freeze values),0.186,0.128,0.044,0.092,0.157,0.139,[0.132 0.145],<0.001,41%,0%
9
- 8,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with freeze values),0.176,0.141,0.064,0.108,0.158,0.142,[0.136 0.148],<0.001,30%,1%
10
- 9,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.184,0.134,0.057,0.101,0.159,0.142,[0.136 0.149],<0.001,32%,0%
11
  10,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot with freeze values),0.192,0.125,0.052,0.094,0.159,0.143,[0.136 0.15 ],<0.001,42%,0%
12
- 11,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad),0.172,0.144,0.076,0.114,0.158,0.143,[0.138 0.149],<0.001,31%,0%
13
- 12,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with freeze values),0.204,0.112,0.045,0.083,0.158,0.144,[0.137 0.15 ],<0.001,42%,0%
14
- 13,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad),0.169,0.152,0.076,0.12,0.16,0.144,[0.139 0.15 ],<0.001,10%,0%
15
- 14,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad),0.162,0.162,0.083,0.128,0.162,0.145,[0.139 0.151],<0.001,32%,0%
16
- 15,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.194,0.134,0.054,0.1,0.164,0.147,[0.141 0.153],<0.001,36%,0%
17
- 16,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news),0.166,0.156,0.091,0.128,0.161,0.147,[0.141 0.153],<0.001,32%,1%
18
  17,ForecastBench,Imputed Forecaster,0.25,0.065,0.024,0.048,0.158,0.149,[0.145 0.153],<0.001,46%,100%
19
- 18,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad),0.186,0.147,0.068,0.113,0.167,0.15,[0.144 0.156],<0.001,31%,0%
20
- 19,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot with freeze values),0.217,0.104,0.055,0.083,0.16,0.15,[0.144 0.156],<0.001,39%,17%
21
- 20,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.211,0.113,0.06,0.091,0.162,0.151,[0.145 0.157],<0.001,35%,0%
22
- 21,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news),0.19,0.142,0.075,0.113,0.166,0.152,[0.146 0.158],<0.001,31%,0%
23
- 22,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news),0.184,0.156,0.08,0.123,0.17,0.154,[0.148 0.16 ],<0.001,30%,0%
24
  23,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot with freeze values),0.222,0.118,0.045,0.087,0.17,0.154,[0.148 0.161],<0.001,38%,0%
25
  24,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad),0.176,0.168,0.088,0.134,0.172,0.155,[0.15 0.16],<0.001,28%,0%
26
- 25,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.242,0.09,0.038,0.068,0.166,0.155,[0.151 0.159],<0.001,38%,78%
27
- 26,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.201,0.144,0.067,0.111,0.172,0.156,[0.15 0.162],<0.001,27%,0%
28
- 27,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with freeze values),0.199,0.146,0.072,0.114,0.173,0.157,[0.151 0.162],<0.001,26%,0%
29
- 28,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot),0.217,0.107,0.081,0.096,0.162,0.157,[0.15 0.163],<0.001,37%,17%
30
- 29,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.243,0.094,0.039,0.071,0.169,0.157,[0.153 0.161],<0.001,38%,78%
31
  30,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.244,0.095,0.039,0.071,0.169,0.157,[0.153 0.161],<0.001,37%,78%
32
- 31,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad),0.194,0.156,0.073,0.121,0.175,0.157,[0.153 0.162],<0.001,28%,0%
33
- 32,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.215,0.136,0.053,0.1,0.175,0.158,[0.151 0.164],<0.001,33%,0%
34
- 33,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3),0.186,0.164,0.087,0.131,0.175,0.159,[0.153 0.165],<0.001,32%,0%
35
- 34,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 3),0.19,0.164,0.082,0.129,0.177,0.159,[0.153 0.165],<0.001,29%,2%
36
- 35,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot),0.204,0.142,0.082,0.116,0.173,0.16,[0.154 0.167],<0.001,32%,0%
37
- 36,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with freeze values),0.194,0.161,0.082,0.127,0.177,0.16,[0.153 0.168],<0.001,32%,0%
38
- 37,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot),0.186,0.168,0.093,0.136,0.177,0.161,[0.154 0.168],<0.001,35%,0%
39
- 38,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 3),0.208,0.144,0.079,0.116,0.176,0.162,[0.156 0.167],<0.001,28%,9%
40
  39,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news),0.211,0.134,0.087,0.114,0.173,0.163,[0.157 0.168],<0.001,27%,0%
41
  40,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot),0.192,0.166,0.092,0.134,0.179,0.163,[0.156 0.17 ],<0.001,34%,1%
42
  41,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.205,0.159,0.073,0.122,0.182,0.164,[0.158 0.17 ],<0.001,26%,0%
43
  42,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.221,0.141,0.063,0.108,0.181,0.164,[0.159 0.17 ],<0.001,25%,0%
44
- 43,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot with freeze values),0.208,0.162,0.067,0.121,0.185,0.165,[0.157 0.172],<0.001,31%,0%
45
  44,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with freeze values),0.232,0.128,0.058,0.098,0.18,0.165,[0.158 0.173],<0.001,40%,0%
46
- 45,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.21,0.148,0.083,0.121,0.179,0.165,[0.159 0.172],<0.001,30%,0%
47
- 46,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 3),0.211,0.159,0.077,0.124,0.185,0.168,[0.162 0.173],<0.001,28%,7%
48
  47,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad),0.237,0.125,0.066,0.1,0.181,0.168,[0.163 0.174],<0.001,38%,22%
49
- 48,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad),0.194,0.179,0.101,0.146,0.186,0.17,[0.163 0.176],<0.001,28%,0%
50
- 49,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot with freeze values),0.225,0.146,0.075,0.116,0.186,0.17,[0.163 0.178],<0.001,37%,1%
51
- 50,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad),0.201,0.178,0.091,0.141,0.19,0.171,[0.165 0.177],<0.001,26%,0%
52
- 51,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 1),0.216,0.149,0.098,0.127,0.183,0.172,[0.164 0.179],<0.001,32%,0%
53
  52,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.215,0.156,0.093,0.129,0.186,0.172,[0.166 0.178],<0.001,28%,0%
54
- 53,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot with freeze values),0.227,0.156,0.067,0.118,0.191,0.172,[0.165 0.179],<0.001,32%,1%
55
  54,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 1),0.211,0.167,0.091,0.134,0.189,0.173,[0.166 0.179],<0.001,30%,18%
56
- 55,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 1),0.218,0.161,0.084,0.128,0.189,0.173,[0.167 0.179],<0.001,29%,0%
57
- 56,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.237,0.149,0.056,0.109,0.193,0.173,[0.167 0.18 ],<0.001,36%,17%
58
- 57,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot),0.225,0.163,0.067,0.122,0.194,0.173,[0.167 0.18 ],<0.001,31%,3%
59
- 58,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad),0.199,0.188,0.098,0.149,0.194,0.174,[0.169 0.18 ],<0.001,24%,0%
60
  59,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news),0.205,0.184,0.09,0.144,0.195,0.175,[0.169 0.18 ],<0.001,25%,0%
61
- 60,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.221,0.142,0.11,0.129,0.182,0.175,[0.167 0.183],<0.001,43%,0%
62
- 61,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.236,0.143,0.075,0.114,0.19,0.175,[0.17 0.181],<0.001,28%,10%
63
- 62,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.222,0.167,0.084,0.132,0.194,0.177,[0.171 0.182],<0.001,28%,1%
64
  63,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.224,0.165,0.088,0.132,0.194,0.178,[0.171 0.185],<0.001,29%,0%
65
- 64,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.21,0.186,0.093,0.146,0.198,0.178,[0.173 0.184],<0.001,26%,0%
66
- 65,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.214,0.19,0.093,0.148,0.202,0.181,[0.173 0.189],<0.001,29%,0%
67
  66,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news),0.242,0.16,0.069,0.121,0.201,0.182,[0.175 0.188],<0.001,34%,17%
68
- 67,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 1),0.216,0.184,0.098,0.147,0.2,0.182,[0.175 0.188],<0.001,28%,10%
69
- 68,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 1),0.212,0.191,0.099,0.151,0.202,0.182,[0.175 0.189],<0.001,30%,17%
70
  69,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.222,0.181,0.091,0.142,0.201,0.182,[0.176 0.188],<0.001,24%,0%
71
- 70,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.214,0.179,0.113,0.151,0.197,0.182,[0.175 0.189],<0.001,27%,0%
72
  71,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 3),0.218,0.191,0.089,0.147,0.204,0.183,[0.177 0.188],<0.001,24%,4%
73
- 72,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 1),0.219,0.182,0.1,0.147,0.201,0.183,[0.176 0.19 ],<0.001,30%,4%
74
- 73,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot),0.222,0.189,0.087,0.145,0.206,0.184,[0.178 0.189],<0.001,26%,0%
75
  74,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.242,0.164,0.073,0.125,0.203,0.184,[0.178 0.19 ],<0.001,33%,14%
76
- 75,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.221,0.189,0.093,0.148,0.205,0.184,[0.179 0.189],<0.001,23%,0%
77
- 76,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot),0.208,0.196,0.123,0.165,0.202,0.186,[0.179 0.193],<0.001,27%,0%
78
- 77,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot),0.227,0.182,0.099,0.147,0.204,0.187,[0.18 0.193],<0.001,28%,1%
79
- 78,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news),0.224,0.185,0.107,0.152,0.204,0.188,[0.182 0.194],<0.001,26%,0%
80
  79,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 3),0.216,0.201,0.106,0.16,0.208,0.188,[0.182 0.194],<0.001,26%,6%
81
- 80,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 2),0.246,0.146,0.11,0.13,0.196,0.188,[0.182 0.195],<0.001,28%,12%
82
- 81,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news),0.222,0.198,0.101,0.157,0.21,0.189,[0.183 0.195],<0.001,23%,0%
83
  82,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.233,0.19,0.085,0.145,0.212,0.189,[0.183 0.195],<0.001,26%,0%
84
- 83,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.221,0.18,0.127,0.157,0.201,0.189,[0.181 0.198],<0.001,41%,0%
85
- 84,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 2),0.224,0.192,0.108,0.156,0.208,0.19,[0.184 0.197],<0.001,26%,1%
86
  85,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.235,0.174,0.109,0.146,0.204,0.19,[0.183 0.197],<0.001,30%,20%
87
- 86,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 2),0.224,0.201,0.102,0.159,0.212,0.191,[0.184 0.198],<0.001,26%,1%
88
- 87,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.233,0.195,0.094,0.152,0.214,0.193,[0.187 0.198],<0.001,24%,0%
89
  88,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.232,0.196,0.097,0.154,0.214,0.193,[0.188 0.198],<0.001,26%,12%
90
- 89,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 2),0.238,0.191,0.103,0.153,0.214,0.196,[0.188 0.203],<0.001,29%,0%
91
- 90,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.249,0.174,0.098,0.142,0.212,0.196,[0.189 0.202],<0.001,28%,11%
92
- 91,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.249,0.177,0.095,0.142,0.213,0.196,[0.189 0.203],<0.001,29%,10%
93
- 92,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.266,0.154,0.093,0.128,0.21,0.197,[0.188 0.205],<0.001,38%,0%
94
- 93,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 3),0.232,0.207,0.104,0.162,0.219,0.197,[0.191 0.203],<0.001,25%,9%
95
  94,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.27,0.166,0.069,0.125,0.218,0.197,[0.19 0.205],<0.001,37%,23%
96
- 95,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.246,0.197,0.1,0.155,0.221,0.201,[0.192 0.209],<0.001,32%,0%
97
- 96,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot),0.232,0.196,0.142,0.173,0.214,0.202,[0.195 0.21 ],<0.001,31%,1%
98
  97,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 2),0.261,0.187,0.09,0.145,0.224,0.203,[0.196 0.21 ],<0.001,28%,4%
99
  98,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 2),0.242,0.212,0.102,0.165,0.227,0.203,[0.197 0.209],<0.001,24%,4%
100
- 99,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.268,0.18,0.086,0.14,0.224,0.204,[0.197 0.211],<0.001,32%,24%
101
  100,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.277,0.155,0.099,0.131,0.216,0.204,[0.198 0.21 ],<0.001,31%,19%
102
  101,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 2),0.251,0.195,0.108,0.157,0.223,0.204,[0.197 0.212],<0.001,28%,7%
103
- 102,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.248,0.208,0.105,0.164,0.228,0.206,[0.2 0.212],<0.001,24%,2%
104
- 103,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.254,0.209,0.101,0.163,0.231,0.208,[0.202 0.215],<0.001,22%,0%
105
  104,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 1),0.25,0.208,0.121,0.171,0.229,0.211,[0.203 0.218],<0.001,26%,26%
106
- 105,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news),0.254,0.215,0.112,0.171,0.235,0.212,[0.207 0.218],<0.001,22%,0%
107
  106,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 2),0.241,0.236,0.121,0.187,0.238,0.214,[0.206 0.221],<0.001,26%,10%
108
  107,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.265,0.216,0.106,0.169,0.24,0.217,[0.21 0.224],<0.001,27%,11%
109
- 108,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.288,0.178,0.103,0.146,0.233,0.217,[0.211 0.223],<0.001,29%,15%
110
  109,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot),0.246,0.234,0.128,0.189,0.24,0.217,[0.211 0.224],<0.001,26%,1%
111
- 110,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.301,0.165,0.095,0.135,0.233,0.218,[0.211 0.225],<0.001,32%,18%
112
  111,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.288,0.176,0.11,0.148,0.232,0.218,[0.211 0.225],<0.001,28%,15%
113
- 112,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.266,0.206,0.123,0.171,0.236,0.218,[0.209 0.227],<0.001,33%,1%
114
- 113,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 1),0.247,0.234,0.141,0.194,0.24,0.221,[0.213 0.228],<0.001,25%,19%
115
  114,ForecastBench,Always 0.5,0.25,0.25,0.115,0.192,0.25,0.221,[0.218 0.224],<0.001,25%,0%
116
- 115,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot with freeze values),0.278,0.211,0.103,0.164,0.244,0.221,[0.215 0.228],<0.001,24%,1%
117
  116,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.274,0.211,0.115,0.17,0.243,0.222,[0.215 0.229],<0.001,23%,0%
118
  117,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.265,0.228,0.118,0.181,0.247,0.223,[0.217 0.229],<0.001,22%,0%
119
- 118,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 3),0.27,0.227,0.11,0.177,0.248,0.223,[0.217 0.229],<0.001,22%,5%
120
  119,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.265,0.238,0.112,0.184,0.251,0.225,[0.219 0.23 ],<0.001,22%,0%
121
- 120,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.296,0.186,0.119,0.158,0.241,0.227,[0.22 0.234],<0.001,31%,19%
122
- 121,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.277,0.231,0.116,0.182,0.254,0.229,[0.224 0.235],<0.001,20%,1%
123
- 122,ForecastBench,Always 0,0.266,0.203,0.199,0.201,0.234,0.233,[0.22 0.246],<0.001,66%,0%
124
- 123,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot),0.278,0.239,0.121,0.188,0.259,0.233,[0.228 0.239],<0.001,24%,1%
125
- 124,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 2),0.267,0.262,0.12,0.201,0.265,0.234,[0.228 0.24 ],<0.001,22%,6%
126
  125,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.274,0.247,0.129,0.196,0.26,0.235,[0.229 0.241],<0.001,22%,0%
127
- 126,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad),0.277,0.262,0.128,0.205,0.27,0.241,[0.235 0.246],<0.001,20%,1%
128
  127,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.308,0.246,0.116,0.19,0.277,0.249,[0.243 0.255],<0.001,20%,1%
129
  128,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 3),0.288,0.279,0.135,0.217,0.283,0.253,[0.247 0.258],<0.001,22%,17%
130
- 129,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news),0.308,0.265,0.125,0.205,0.286,0.256,[0.251 0.262],<0.001,20%,1%
131
  130,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.3,0.274,0.141,0.217,0.287,0.258,[0.253 0.264],<0.001,20%,0%
132
  131,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad),0.3,0.283,0.137,0.22,0.291,0.26,[0.254 0.266],<0.001,20%,0%
133
- 132,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.307,0.286,0.151,0.228,0.296,0.268,[0.258 0.277],<0.001,26%,0%
134
- 133,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 1),0.3,0.324,0.149,0.249,0.312,0.275,[0.267 0.282],<0.001,21%,7%
135
  134,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.307,0.324,0.161,0.254,0.315,0.28,[0.273 0.288],<0.001,25%,1%
136
  135,ForecastBench,Random Uniform,0.341,0.324,0.192,0.267,0.332,0.304,[0.294 0.314],<0.001,28%,0%
137
  136,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot with freeze values),0.446,0.246,0.147,0.204,0.346,0.325,[0.315 0.335],<0.001,27%,0%
138
- 137,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot),0.446,0.34,0.213,0.286,0.393,0.366,[0.357 0.375],<0.001,21%,0%
139
- 138,ForecastBench,Always 1,0.734,0.797,0.531,0.683,0.766,0.709,[0.694 0.723],<0.001,22%,0%
 
1
  Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=5,492)",Market Score (resolved) (N=513),Market Score (unresolved) (N=384),Market Score (overall) (N=897),"Overall Resolved Score (N=6,005)","Overall Score (N=6,389)",Overall Score 95% CI,Pairwise p-value comparing to No. 1 (bootstrapped),Pct. more accurate than No. 1,Pct. Imputed
2
  1,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.169,0.112,0.032,0.078,0.141,0.123,[0.117 0.129],,0%,0%
3
+ 2,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.172,0.107,0.044,0.08,0.139,0.126,[0.12 0.132],0.097,43%,0%
4
+ 3,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with freeze values),0.186,0.096,0.034,0.069,0.141,0.128,[0.122 0.133],<0.01,43%,0%
5
+ 4,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with freeze values),0.162,0.134,0.068,0.106,0.148,0.134,[0.128 0.139],<0.001,35%,0%
6
+ 5,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.19,0.115,0.043,0.084,0.153,0.137,[0.131 0.143],<0.001,39%,0%
7
+ 6,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.166,0.138,0.075,0.111,0.152,0.139,[0.133 0.144],<0.001,34%,1%
8
+ 7,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with freeze values),0.186,0.128,0.045,0.093,0.157,0.139,[0.133 0.146],<0.001,41%,0%
9
+ 8,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with freeze values),0.176,0.141,0.065,0.108,0.158,0.142,[0.136 0.148],<0.001,30%,1%
10
+ 9,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.184,0.134,0.058,0.101,0.159,0.143,[0.136 0.149],<0.001,32%,0%
11
  10,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot with freeze values),0.192,0.125,0.052,0.094,0.159,0.143,[0.136 0.15 ],<0.001,42%,0%
12
+ 11,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad),0.172,0.144,0.077,0.115,0.158,0.143,[0.138 0.149],<0.001,31%,0%
13
+ 12,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with freeze values),0.204,0.112,0.046,0.084,0.158,0.144,[0.137 0.15 ],<0.001,42%,0%
14
+ 13,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad),0.169,0.152,0.077,0.12,0.16,0.144,[0.139 0.15 ],<0.001,10%,0%
15
+ 14,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad),0.162,0.162,0.084,0.129,0.162,0.145,[0.139 0.151],<0.001,32%,0%
16
+ 15,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.194,0.134,0.055,0.1,0.164,0.147,[0.141 0.154],<0.001,36%,0%
17
+ 16,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news),0.166,0.156,0.092,0.129,0.161,0.147,[0.141 0.153],<0.001,32%,1%
18
  17,ForecastBench,Imputed Forecaster,0.25,0.065,0.024,0.048,0.158,0.149,[0.145 0.153],<0.001,46%,100%
19
+ 18,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad),0.186,0.147,0.069,0.114,0.167,0.15,[0.144 0.156],<0.001,31%,0%
20
+ 19,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot with freeze values),0.217,0.104,0.056,0.083,0.16,0.15,[0.144 0.157],<0.001,39%,17%
21
+ 20,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.211,0.113,0.061,0.091,0.162,0.151,[0.145 0.157],<0.001,35%,0%
22
+ 21,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news),0.19,0.142,0.075,0.114,0.166,0.152,[0.146 0.158],<0.001,31%,0%
23
+ 22,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news),0.184,0.156,0.081,0.124,0.17,0.154,[0.148 0.16 ],<0.001,30%,0%
24
  23,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot with freeze values),0.222,0.118,0.045,0.087,0.17,0.154,[0.148 0.161],<0.001,38%,0%
25
  24,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad),0.176,0.168,0.088,0.134,0.172,0.155,[0.15 0.16],<0.001,28%,0%
26
+ 25,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.242,0.09,0.039,0.068,0.166,0.155,[0.151 0.159],<0.001,38%,78%
27
+ 26,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.201,0.144,0.068,0.112,0.172,0.156,[0.15 0.162],<0.001,27%,0%
28
+ 27,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with freeze values),0.199,0.146,0.072,0.115,0.173,0.157,[0.151 0.162],<0.001,26%,0%
29
+ 28,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot),0.217,0.107,0.082,0.097,0.162,0.157,[0.151 0.163],<0.001,37%,17%
30
+ 29,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.243,0.094,0.04,0.071,0.169,0.157,[0.153 0.161],<0.001,37%,78%
31
  30,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.244,0.095,0.039,0.071,0.169,0.157,[0.153 0.161],<0.001,37%,78%
32
+ 31,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad),0.194,0.156,0.074,0.121,0.175,0.158,[0.153 0.162],<0.001,28%,0%
33
+ 32,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.215,0.136,0.053,0.101,0.175,0.158,[0.151 0.164],<0.001,33%,0%
34
+ 33,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3),0.186,0.164,0.088,0.131,0.175,0.159,[0.153 0.165],<0.001,31%,0%
35
+ 34,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 3),0.19,0.164,0.083,0.129,0.177,0.159,[0.153 0.165],<0.001,29%,2%
36
+ 35,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot),0.204,0.142,0.083,0.117,0.173,0.16,[0.154 0.167],<0.001,32%,0%
37
+ 36,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with freeze values),0.194,0.161,0.083,0.128,0.177,0.161,[0.154 0.168],<0.001,32%,0%
38
+ 37,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot),0.186,0.168,0.094,0.136,0.177,0.161,[0.154 0.168],<0.001,35%,0%
39
+ 38,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 3),0.208,0.144,0.08,0.116,0.176,0.162,[0.156 0.167],<0.001,28%,9%
40
  39,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news),0.211,0.134,0.087,0.114,0.173,0.163,[0.157 0.168],<0.001,27%,0%
41
  40,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot),0.192,0.166,0.092,0.134,0.179,0.163,[0.156 0.17 ],<0.001,34%,1%
42
  41,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.205,0.159,0.073,0.122,0.182,0.164,[0.158 0.17 ],<0.001,26%,0%
43
  42,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.221,0.141,0.063,0.108,0.181,0.164,[0.159 0.17 ],<0.001,25%,0%
44
+ 43,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot with freeze values),0.208,0.162,0.068,0.122,0.185,0.165,[0.157 0.172],<0.001,31%,0%
45
  44,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with freeze values),0.232,0.128,0.058,0.098,0.18,0.165,[0.158 0.173],<0.001,40%,0%
46
+ 45,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.21,0.148,0.084,0.121,0.179,0.165,[0.159 0.172],<0.001,30%,0%
47
+ 46,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 3),0.211,0.159,0.078,0.124,0.185,0.168,[0.162 0.173],<0.001,28%,7%
48
  47,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad),0.237,0.125,0.066,0.1,0.181,0.168,[0.163 0.174],<0.001,38%,22%
49
+ 48,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad),0.194,0.179,0.102,0.146,0.186,0.17,[0.164 0.176],<0.001,28%,0%
50
+ 49,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot with freeze values),0.225,0.146,0.076,0.116,0.186,0.171,[0.163 0.178],<0.001,37%,1%
51
+ 50,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad),0.201,0.178,0.092,0.141,0.19,0.171,[0.165 0.177],<0.001,26%,0%
52
+ 51,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 1),0.216,0.149,0.099,0.128,0.183,0.172,[0.165 0.179],<0.001,32%,0%
53
  52,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.215,0.156,0.093,0.129,0.186,0.172,[0.166 0.178],<0.001,28%,0%
54
+ 53,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot with freeze values),0.227,0.156,0.068,0.118,0.191,0.172,[0.165 0.179],<0.001,32%,1%
55
  54,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 1),0.211,0.167,0.091,0.134,0.189,0.173,[0.166 0.179],<0.001,30%,18%
56
+ 55,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 1),0.218,0.161,0.085,0.128,0.189,0.173,[0.167 0.18 ],<0.001,29%,0%
57
+ 56,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.237,0.149,0.056,0.109,0.193,0.173,[0.167 0.18 ],<0.001,37%,17%
58
+ 57,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot),0.225,0.163,0.068,0.122,0.194,0.174,[0.167 0.18 ],<0.001,31%,3%
59
+ 58,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad),0.199,0.188,0.098,0.15,0.194,0.174,[0.169 0.18 ],<0.001,24%,0%
60
  59,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news),0.205,0.184,0.09,0.144,0.195,0.175,[0.169 0.18 ],<0.001,25%,0%
61
+ 60,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.221,0.142,0.111,0.129,0.182,0.175,[0.168 0.183],<0.001,43%,0%
62
+ 61,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.236,0.143,0.076,0.114,0.19,0.175,[0.17 0.181],<0.001,28%,10%
63
+ 62,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.222,0.167,0.085,0.132,0.194,0.177,[0.171 0.183],<0.001,28%,1%
64
  63,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.224,0.165,0.088,0.132,0.194,0.178,[0.171 0.185],<0.001,29%,0%
65
+ 64,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.21,0.186,0.094,0.146,0.198,0.178,[0.173 0.184],<0.001,26%,0%
66
+ 65,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.214,0.19,0.093,0.149,0.202,0.181,[0.173 0.19 ],<0.001,29%,0%
67
  66,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news),0.242,0.16,0.069,0.121,0.201,0.182,[0.175 0.188],<0.001,34%,17%
68
+ 67,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 1),0.216,0.184,0.099,0.148,0.2,0.182,[0.175 0.188],<0.001,28%,10%
69
+ 68,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 1),0.212,0.191,0.099,0.152,0.202,0.182,[0.175 0.189],<0.001,30%,17%
70
  69,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.222,0.181,0.091,0.142,0.201,0.182,[0.176 0.188],<0.001,24%,0%
71
+ 70,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.214,0.179,0.114,0.151,0.197,0.183,[0.176 0.19 ],<0.001,27%,0%
72
  71,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 3),0.218,0.191,0.089,0.147,0.204,0.183,[0.177 0.188],<0.001,24%,4%
73
+ 72,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 1),0.219,0.182,0.101,0.147,0.201,0.183,[0.176 0.19 ],<0.001,30%,4%
74
+ 73,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot),0.222,0.189,0.087,0.145,0.206,0.184,[0.178 0.19 ],<0.001,26%,0%
75
  74,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.242,0.164,0.073,0.125,0.203,0.184,[0.178 0.19 ],<0.001,33%,14%
76
+ 75,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.221,0.189,0.093,0.148,0.205,0.184,[0.18 0.189],<0.001,23%,0%
77
+ 76,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot),0.208,0.196,0.123,0.165,0.202,0.186,[0.179 0.194],<0.001,27%,0%
78
+ 77,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot),0.227,0.182,0.1,0.147,0.204,0.187,[0.181 0.193],<0.001,27%,1%
79
+ 78,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news),0.224,0.185,0.108,0.152,0.204,0.188,[0.182 0.194],<0.001,26%,0%
80
  79,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 3),0.216,0.201,0.106,0.16,0.208,0.188,[0.182 0.194],<0.001,26%,6%
81
+ 80,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 2),0.246,0.146,0.11,0.131,0.196,0.188,[0.182 0.195],<0.001,28%,12%
82
+ 81,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news),0.222,0.198,0.102,0.157,0.21,0.189,[0.183 0.195],<0.001,23%,0%
83
  82,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.233,0.19,0.085,0.145,0.212,0.189,[0.183 0.195],<0.001,26%,0%
84
+ 83,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.221,0.18,0.128,0.158,0.201,0.19,[0.181 0.198],<0.001,41%,0%
85
+ 84,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 2),0.224,0.192,0.109,0.157,0.208,0.19,[0.184 0.197],<0.001,26%,1%
86
  85,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.235,0.174,0.109,0.146,0.204,0.19,[0.183 0.197],<0.001,30%,20%
87
+ 86,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 2),0.224,0.201,0.103,0.159,0.212,0.191,[0.184 0.198],<0.001,26%,1%
88
+ 87,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.233,0.195,0.095,0.152,0.214,0.193,[0.187 0.198],<0.001,24%,0%
89
  88,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.232,0.196,0.097,0.154,0.214,0.193,[0.188 0.198],<0.001,26%,12%
90
+ 89,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 2),0.238,0.191,0.103,0.153,0.214,0.196,[0.188 0.203],<0.001,30%,0%
91
+ 90,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.249,0.174,0.098,0.142,0.212,0.196,[0.19 0.202],<0.001,28%,11%
92
+ 91,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.249,0.177,0.095,0.142,0.213,0.196,[0.189 0.203],<0.001,28%,10%
93
+ 92,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.266,0.154,0.093,0.128,0.21,0.197,[0.188 0.206],<0.001,38%,0%
94
+ 93,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 3),0.232,0.207,0.104,0.163,0.219,0.197,[0.191 0.203],<0.001,25%,9%
95
  94,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.27,0.166,0.069,0.125,0.218,0.197,[0.19 0.205],<0.001,37%,23%
96
+ 95,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.246,0.197,0.1,0.156,0.221,0.201,[0.192 0.209],<0.001,32%,0%
97
+ 96,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot),0.232,0.196,0.142,0.173,0.214,0.203,[0.195 0.211],<0.001,31%,1%
98
  97,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 2),0.261,0.187,0.09,0.145,0.224,0.203,[0.196 0.21 ],<0.001,28%,4%
99
  98,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 2),0.242,0.212,0.102,0.165,0.227,0.203,[0.197 0.209],<0.001,24%,4%
100
+ 99,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.268,0.18,0.087,0.14,0.224,0.204,[0.197 0.211],<0.001,32%,24%
101
  100,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.277,0.155,0.099,0.131,0.216,0.204,[0.198 0.21 ],<0.001,31%,19%
102
  101,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 2),0.251,0.195,0.108,0.157,0.223,0.204,[0.197 0.212],<0.001,28%,7%
103
+ 102,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.248,0.208,0.106,0.164,0.228,0.206,[0.2 0.212],<0.001,24%,2%
104
+ 103,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.254,0.209,0.102,0.163,0.231,0.208,[0.202 0.215],<0.001,22%,0%
105
  104,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 1),0.25,0.208,0.121,0.171,0.229,0.211,[0.203 0.218],<0.001,26%,26%
106
+ 105,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news),0.254,0.215,0.112,0.171,0.235,0.213,[0.207 0.218],<0.001,22%,0%
107
  106,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 2),0.241,0.236,0.121,0.187,0.238,0.214,[0.206 0.221],<0.001,26%,10%
108
  107,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.265,0.216,0.106,0.169,0.24,0.217,[0.21 0.224],<0.001,27%,11%
109
+ 108,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.288,0.178,0.104,0.146,0.233,0.217,[0.211 0.223],<0.001,29%,15%
110
  109,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot),0.246,0.234,0.128,0.189,0.24,0.217,[0.211 0.224],<0.001,26%,1%
111
+ 110,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.301,0.165,0.096,0.135,0.233,0.218,[0.211 0.225],<0.001,32%,18%
112
  111,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.288,0.176,0.11,0.148,0.232,0.218,[0.211 0.225],<0.001,28%,15%
113
+ 112,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.266,0.206,0.124,0.171,0.236,0.218,[0.209 0.228],<0.001,33%,1%
114
+ 113,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 1),0.247,0.234,0.142,0.194,0.24,0.221,[0.213 0.228],<0.001,25%,19%
115
  114,ForecastBench,Always 0.5,0.25,0.25,0.115,0.192,0.25,0.221,[0.218 0.224],<0.001,25%,0%
116
+ 115,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot with freeze values),0.278,0.211,0.103,0.165,0.244,0.221,[0.215 0.228],<0.001,24%,1%
117
  116,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.274,0.211,0.115,0.17,0.243,0.222,[0.215 0.229],<0.001,23%,0%
118
  117,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.265,0.228,0.118,0.181,0.247,0.223,[0.217 0.229],<0.001,22%,0%
119
+ 118,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 3),0.27,0.227,0.11,0.177,0.248,0.223,[0.217 0.23 ],<0.001,22%,5%
120
  119,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.265,0.238,0.112,0.184,0.251,0.225,[0.219 0.23 ],<0.001,22%,0%
121
+ 120,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.296,0.186,0.12,0.158,0.241,0.227,[0.22 0.234],<0.001,31%,19%
122
+ 121,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.277,0.231,0.117,0.182,0.254,0.23,[0.224 0.235],<0.001,20%,1%
123
+ 122,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot),0.278,0.239,0.121,0.189,0.259,0.233,[0.228 0.239],<0.001,24%,1%
124
+ 123,ForecastBench,Always 0,0.266,0.203,0.199,0.201,0.234,0.233,[0.221 0.246],<0.001,66%,0%
125
+ 124,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 2),0.267,0.262,0.12,0.201,0.265,0.234,[0.228 0.241],<0.001,22%,6%
126
  125,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.274,0.247,0.129,0.196,0.26,0.235,[0.229 0.241],<0.001,22%,0%
127
+ 126,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad),0.277,0.262,0.128,0.205,0.27,0.241,[0.236 0.246],<0.001,20%,1%
128
  127,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.308,0.246,0.116,0.19,0.277,0.249,[0.243 0.255],<0.001,20%,1%
129
  128,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 3),0.288,0.279,0.135,0.217,0.283,0.253,[0.247 0.258],<0.001,22%,17%
130
+ 129,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news),0.308,0.265,0.126,0.205,0.286,0.257,[0.251 0.262],<0.001,20%,1%
131
  130,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.3,0.274,0.141,0.217,0.287,0.258,[0.253 0.264],<0.001,20%,0%
132
  131,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad),0.3,0.283,0.137,0.22,0.291,0.26,[0.254 0.266],<0.001,20%,0%
133
+ 132,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.307,0.286,0.151,0.229,0.296,0.268,[0.258 0.277],<0.001,26%,0%
134
+ 133,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 1),0.3,0.324,0.15,0.249,0.312,0.275,[0.267 0.282],<0.001,21%,7%
135
  134,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.307,0.324,0.161,0.254,0.315,0.28,[0.273 0.288],<0.001,25%,1%
136
  135,ForecastBench,Random Uniform,0.341,0.324,0.192,0.267,0.332,0.304,[0.294 0.314],<0.001,28%,0%
137
  136,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot with freeze values),0.446,0.246,0.147,0.204,0.346,0.325,[0.315 0.335],<0.001,27%,0%
138
+ 137,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot),0.446,0.34,0.214,0.286,0.393,0.366,[0.357 0.375],<0.001,21%,0%
139
+ 138,ForecastBench,Always 1,0.734,0.797,0.531,0.683,0.766,0.709,[0.695 0.723],<0.001,22%,0%
leaderboards/html/human_combo_leaderboard_overall.html CHANGED
@@ -66,7 +66,7 @@
66
  </head>
67
  <body>
68
  <div class="container mt-4">
69
- <h1>Human Combo Leaderboard: overall</h1><p class="updated-date">Updated Feb. 14, 2025</p>
70
  <div style="display: flex; align-items: center;">
71
  <a data-bs-toggle="collapse" data-bs-target="#descriptionCollapse" aria-expanded="false"
72
  aria-controls="descriptionCollapse" style="text-decoration: none; color: inherit;
@@ -163,11 +163,11 @@
163
  <td>Superforecaster median forecast</td>
164
  <td>0.091</td>
165
  <td>0.062</td>
166
- <td>0.060</td>
167
- <td>0.061</td>
168
  <td>0.076</td>
169
  <td>0.076</td>
170
- <td>[0.067, 0.085]</td>
171
  <td></td>
172
  <td>0%</td>
173
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -178,10 +178,10 @@
178
  <td>Public median forecast</td>
179
  <td>0.119</td>
180
  <td>0.092</td>
181
- <td>0.034</td>
182
  <td>0.072</td>
183
  <td>0.105</td>
184
- <td>0.095</td>
185
  <td>[0.086, 0.105]</td>
186
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
187
  <td>23%</td>
@@ -193,7 +193,7 @@
193
  <td>GPT-4o (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
194
  <td>0.175</td>
195
  <td>0.107</td>
196
- <td>0.042</td>
197
  <td>0.085</td>
198
  <td>0.141</td>
199
  <td>0.130</td>
@@ -208,13 +208,13 @@
208
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
209
  <td>0.154</td>
210
  <td>0.144</td>
211
- <td>0.037</td>
212
  <td>0.107</td>
213
  <td>0.149</td>
214
  <td>0.131</td>
215
  <td>[0.118, 0.143]</td>
216
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
217
- <td>23%</td>
218
  <td>0%</td>
219
  </tr>
220
  <tr>
@@ -226,8 +226,8 @@
226
  <td>0.054</td>
227
  <td>0.101</td>
228
  <td>0.145</td>
229
- <td>0.132</td>
230
- <td>[0.12, 0.145]</td>
231
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
232
  <td>23%</td>
233
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -238,7 +238,7 @@
238
  <td>GPT-4o (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
239
  <td>0.171</td>
240
  <td>0.132</td>
241
- <td>0.050</td>
242
  <td>0.103</td>
243
  <td>0.151</td>
244
  <td>0.137</td>
@@ -253,8 +253,8 @@
253
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
254
  <td>0.152</td>
255
  <td>0.158</td>
256
- <td>0.076</td>
257
- <td>0.129</td>
258
  <td>0.155</td>
259
  <td>0.141</td>
260
  <td>[0.13, 0.152]</td>
@@ -268,11 +268,11 @@
268
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
269
  <td>0.154</td>
270
  <td>0.164</td>
271
- <td>0.074</td>
272
  <td>0.133</td>
273
  <td>0.159</td>
274
  <td>0.143</td>
275
- <td>[0.132, 0.154]</td>
276
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
277
  <td>21%</td>
278
  <td>1%</td>
@@ -283,11 +283,11 @@
283
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
284
  <td>0.160</td>
285
  <td>0.158</td>
286
- <td>0.076</td>
287
  <td>0.130</td>
288
  <td>0.159</td>
289
  <td>0.145</td>
290
- <td>[0.132, 0.157]</td>
291
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
292
  <td>20%</td>
293
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -298,7 +298,7 @@
298
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
299
  <td>0.174</td>
300
  <td>0.148</td>
301
- <td>0.063</td>
302
  <td>0.119</td>
303
  <td>0.161</td>
304
  <td>0.146</td>
@@ -313,7 +313,7 @@
313
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad)</td>
314
  <td>0.152</td>
315
  <td>0.172</td>
316
- <td>0.088</td>
317
  <td>0.143</td>
318
  <td>0.162</td>
319
  <td>0.148</td>
@@ -328,7 +328,7 @@
328
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad)</td>
329
  <td>0.164</td>
330
  <td>0.154</td>
331
- <td>0.090</td>
332
  <td>0.132</td>
333
  <td>0.159</td>
334
  <td>0.148</td>
@@ -343,11 +343,11 @@
343
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news)</td>
344
  <td>0.154</td>
345
  <td>0.165</td>
346
- <td>0.100</td>
347
  <td>0.143</td>
348
  <td>0.159</td>
349
  <td>0.148</td>
350
- <td>[0.137, 0.159]</td>
351
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
352
  <td>21%</td>
353
  <td>1%</td>
@@ -358,10 +358,10 @@
358
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad)</td>
359
  <td>0.154</td>
360
  <td>0.166</td>
361
- <td>0.098</td>
362
- <td>0.142</td>
363
  <td>0.160</td>
364
- <td>0.148</td>
365
  <td>[0.137, 0.16]</td>
366
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
367
  <td>20%</td>
@@ -369,34 +369,34 @@
369
  </tr>
370
  <tr>
371
  <td>15</td>
372
- <td>Anthropic</td>
373
- <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
374
- <td>0.173</td>
375
- <td>0.162</td>
376
- <td>0.053</td>
377
- <td>0.124</td>
378
- <td>0.167</td>
379
- <td>0.148</td>
380
- <td>[0.135, 0.162]</td>
381
- <td>&lt;0.001</td>
382
- <td>21%</td>
383
- <td>0%</td>
384
- </tr>
385
- <tr>
386
- <td>16</td>
387
  <td>OpenAI</td>
388
  <td>GPT-4o (scratchpad)</td>
389
  <td>0.175</td>
390
  <td>0.144</td>
391
- <td>0.081</td>
392
  <td>0.122</td>
393
  <td>0.159</td>
394
- <td>0.148</td>
395
  <td>[0.138, 0.159]</td>
396
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
397
  <td>19%</td>
398
  <td>1%</td>
399
  </tr>
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
400
  <tr>
401
  <td>17</td>
402
  <td>OpenAI</td>
@@ -418,8 +418,8 @@
418
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
419
  <td>0.200</td>
420
  <td>0.125</td>
421
- <td>0.051</td>
422
- <td>0.099</td>
423
  <td>0.163</td>
424
  <td>0.150</td>
425
  <td>[0.137, 0.162]</td>
@@ -433,7 +433,7 @@
433
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
434
  <td>0.171</td>
435
  <td>0.160</td>
436
- <td>0.077</td>
437
  <td>0.131</td>
438
  <td>0.165</td>
439
  <td>0.151</td>
@@ -448,11 +448,11 @@
448
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news)</td>
449
  <td>0.160</td>
450
  <td>0.174</td>
451
- <td>0.101</td>
452
- <td>0.148</td>
453
  <td>0.167</td>
454
  <td>0.154</td>
455
- <td>[0.142, 0.166]</td>
456
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
457
  <td>19%</td>
458
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -463,11 +463,11 @@
463
  <td>Imputed Forecaster</td>
464
  <td>0.250</td>
465
  <td>0.073</td>
466
- <td>0.033</td>
467
  <td>0.059</td>
468
  <td>0.161</td>
469
- <td>0.154</td>
470
- <td>[0.146, 0.162]</td>
471
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
472
  <td>22%</td>
473
  <td>100%</td>
@@ -478,7 +478,7 @@
478
  <td>GPT-4 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
479
  <td>0.213</td>
480
  <td>0.125</td>
481
- <td>0.051</td>
482
  <td>0.099</td>
483
  <td>0.169</td>
484
  <td>0.156</td>
@@ -493,11 +493,11 @@
493
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
494
  <td>0.205</td>
495
  <td>0.125</td>
496
- <td>0.081</td>
497
  <td>0.110</td>
498
  <td>0.165</td>
499
  <td>0.157</td>
500
- <td>[0.144, 0.17]</td>
501
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
502
  <td>20%</td>
503
  <td>15%</td>
@@ -508,11 +508,11 @@
508
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
509
  <td>0.167</td>
510
  <td>0.181</td>
511
- <td>0.087</td>
512
  <td>0.148</td>
513
  <td>0.174</td>
514
- <td>0.157</td>
515
- <td>[0.145, 0.169]</td>
516
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
517
  <td>17%</td>
518
  <td>2%</td>
@@ -538,13 +538,13 @@
538
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
539
  <td>0.185</td>
540
  <td>0.161</td>
541
- <td>0.083</td>
542
  <td>0.134</td>
543
  <td>0.173</td>
544
  <td>0.159</td>
545
  <td>[0.148, 0.171]</td>
546
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
547
- <td>17%</td>
548
  <td>0%</td>
549
  </tr>
550
  <tr>
@@ -553,7 +553,7 @@
553
  <td>LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news</td>
554
  <td>0.241</td>
555
  <td>0.097</td>
556
- <td>0.049</td>
557
  <td>0.080</td>
558
  <td>0.169</td>
559
  <td>0.161</td>
@@ -568,7 +568,7 @@
568
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
569
  <td>0.209</td>
570
  <td>0.132</td>
571
- <td>0.080</td>
572
  <td>0.114</td>
573
  <td>0.170</td>
574
  <td>0.161</td>
@@ -583,11 +583,11 @@
583
  <td>LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news</td>
584
  <td>0.242</td>
585
  <td>0.100</td>
586
- <td>0.049</td>
587
- <td>0.082</td>
588
  <td>0.171</td>
589
  <td>0.162</td>
590
- <td>[0.154, 0.17]</td>
591
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
592
  <td>18%</td>
593
  <td>76%</td>
@@ -602,7 +602,7 @@
602
  <td>0.082</td>
603
  <td>0.171</td>
604
  <td>0.162</td>
605
- <td>[0.154, 0.17]</td>
606
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
607
  <td>18%</td>
608
  <td>76%</td>
@@ -613,11 +613,11 @@
613
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
614
  <td>0.176</td>
615
  <td>0.176</td>
616
- <td>0.105</td>
617
  <td>0.151</td>
618
  <td>0.176</td>
619
  <td>0.164</td>
620
- <td>[0.152, 0.175]</td>
621
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
622
  <td>19%</td>
623
  <td>1%</td>
@@ -628,11 +628,11 @@
628
  <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
629
  <td>0.185</td>
630
  <td>0.166</td>
631
- <td>0.099</td>
632
  <td>0.143</td>
633
  <td>0.176</td>
634
  <td>0.164</td>
635
- <td>[0.153, 0.175]</td>
636
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
637
  <td>16%</td>
638
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -643,7 +643,7 @@
643
  <td>GPT-4 (scratchpad)</td>
644
  <td>0.190</td>
645
  <td>0.169</td>
646
- <td>0.085</td>
647
  <td>0.140</td>
648
  <td>0.180</td>
649
  <td>0.165</td>
@@ -661,7 +661,7 @@
661
  <td>0.111</td>
662
  <td>0.160</td>
663
  <td>0.179</td>
664
- <td>0.165</td>
665
  <td>[0.156, 0.175]</td>
666
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
667
  <td>15%</td>
@@ -673,10 +673,10 @@
673
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot)</td>
674
  <td>0.205</td>
675
  <td>0.136</td>
676
- <td>0.112</td>
677
  <td>0.128</td>
678
  <td>0.171</td>
679
- <td>0.166</td>
680
  <td>[0.154, 0.179]</td>
681
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
682
  <td>19%</td>
@@ -688,7 +688,7 @@
688
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
689
  <td>0.179</td>
690
  <td>0.182</td>
691
- <td>0.102</td>
692
  <td>0.154</td>
693
  <td>0.180</td>
694
  <td>0.167</td>
@@ -703,11 +703,11 @@
703
  <td>Claude-2.1 (scratchpad)</td>
704
  <td>0.228</td>
705
  <td>0.117</td>
706
- <td>0.083</td>
707
  <td>0.105</td>
708
  <td>0.172</td>
709
  <td>0.167</td>
710
- <td>[0.157, 0.176]</td>
711
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
712
  <td>20%</td>
713
  <td>24%</td>
@@ -718,7 +718,7 @@
718
  <td>Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
719
  <td>0.205</td>
720
  <td>0.168</td>
721
- <td>0.064</td>
722
  <td>0.132</td>
723
  <td>0.186</td>
724
  <td>0.168</td>
@@ -733,7 +733,7 @@
733
  <td>Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
734
  <td>0.208</td>
735
  <td>0.156</td>
736
- <td>0.077</td>
737
  <td>0.129</td>
738
  <td>0.182</td>
739
  <td>0.169</td>
@@ -748,7 +748,7 @@
748
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
749
  <td>0.217</td>
750
  <td>0.150</td>
751
- <td>0.067</td>
752
  <td>0.121</td>
753
  <td>0.183</td>
754
  <td>0.169</td>
@@ -763,11 +763,11 @@
763
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot)</td>
764
  <td>0.173</td>
765
  <td>0.201</td>
766
- <td>0.097</td>
767
  <td>0.165</td>
768
  <td>0.187</td>
769
  <td>0.169</td>
770
- <td>[0.155, 0.182]</td>
771
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
772
  <td>18%</td>
773
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -778,8 +778,8 @@
778
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot)</td>
779
  <td>0.200</td>
780
  <td>0.160</td>
781
- <td>0.098</td>
782
- <td>0.138</td>
783
  <td>0.180</td>
784
  <td>0.169</td>
785
  <td>[0.157, 0.182]</td>
@@ -839,7 +839,7 @@
839
  <td>0.198</td>
840
  <td>0.172</td>
841
  <td>0.096</td>
842
- <td>0.145</td>
843
  <td>0.185</td>
844
  <td>0.172</td>
845
  <td>[0.161, 0.183]</td>
@@ -853,11 +853,11 @@
853
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot)</td>
854
  <td>0.174</td>
855
  <td>0.197</td>
856
- <td>0.121</td>
857
- <td>0.170</td>
858
  <td>0.185</td>
859
  <td>0.172</td>
860
- <td>[0.158, 0.186]</td>
861
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
862
  <td>17%</td>
863
  <td>1%</td>
@@ -868,11 +868,11 @@
868
  <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
869
  <td>0.203</td>
870
  <td>0.184</td>
871
- <td>0.069</td>
872
- <td>0.144</td>
873
  <td>0.194</td>
874
  <td>0.174</td>
875
- <td>[0.16, 0.187]</td>
876
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
877
  <td>19%</td>
878
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -883,7 +883,7 @@
883
  <td>Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
884
  <td>0.228</td>
885
  <td>0.147</td>
886
- <td>0.069</td>
887
  <td>0.120</td>
888
  <td>0.187</td>
889
  <td>0.174</td>
@@ -913,7 +913,7 @@
913
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad)</td>
914
  <td>0.185</td>
915
  <td>0.206</td>
916
- <td>0.104</td>
917
  <td>0.171</td>
918
  <td>0.195</td>
919
  <td>0.178</td>
@@ -928,8 +928,8 @@
928
  <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad)</td>
929
  <td>0.185</td>
930
  <td>0.197</td>
931
- <td>0.121</td>
932
- <td>0.170</td>
933
  <td>0.191</td>
934
  <td>0.178</td>
935
  <td>[0.168, 0.188]</td>
@@ -943,11 +943,11 @@
943
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with SECOND news)</td>
944
  <td>0.217</td>
945
  <td>0.165</td>
946
- <td>0.093</td>
947
  <td>0.140</td>
948
  <td>0.191</td>
949
  <td>0.178</td>
950
- <td>[0.167, 0.189]</td>
951
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
952
  <td>15%</td>
953
  <td>1%</td>
@@ -958,8 +958,8 @@
958
  <td>GPT-4o (scratchpad with SECOND news)</td>
959
  <td>0.232</td>
960
  <td>0.139</td>
961
- <td>0.100</td>
962
- <td>0.125</td>
963
  <td>0.185</td>
964
  <td>0.179</td>
965
  <td>[0.168, 0.19]</td>
@@ -973,11 +973,11 @@
973
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
974
  <td>0.203</td>
975
  <td>0.184</td>
976
- <td>0.100</td>
977
  <td>0.155</td>
978
  <td>0.194</td>
979
  <td>0.179</td>
980
- <td>[0.167, 0.191]</td>
981
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
982
  <td>17%</td>
983
  <td>15%</td>
@@ -1018,10 +1018,10 @@
1018
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1019
  <td>0.203</td>
1020
  <td>0.190</td>
1021
- <td>0.099</td>
1022
- <td>0.158</td>
1023
  <td>0.196</td>
1024
- <td>0.180</td>
1025
  <td>[0.168, 0.193]</td>
1026
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1027
  <td>18%</td>
@@ -1033,7 +1033,7 @@
1033
  <td>GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1034
  <td>0.200</td>
1035
  <td>0.194</td>
1036
- <td>0.101</td>
1037
  <td>0.162</td>
1038
  <td>0.197</td>
1039
  <td>0.181</td>
@@ -1044,26 +1044,11 @@
1044
  </tr>
1045
  <tr>
1046
  <td>60</td>
1047
- <td>OpenAI</td>
1048
- <td>GPT-4o (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
1049
- <td>0.210</td>
1050
- <td>0.175</td>
1051
- <td>0.109</td>
1052
- <td>0.152</td>
1053
- <td>0.192</td>
1054
- <td>0.181</td>
1055
- <td>[0.165, 0.196]</td>
1056
- <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1057
- <td>21%</td>
1058
- <td>1%</td>
1059
- </tr>
1060
- <tr>
1061
- <td>61</td>
1062
  <td>Qwen</td>
1063
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news)</td>
1064
  <td>0.198</td>
1065
  <td>0.191</td>
1066
- <td>0.112</td>
1067
  <td>0.164</td>
1068
  <td>0.194</td>
1069
  <td>0.181</td>
@@ -1072,17 +1057,32 @@
1072
  <td>16%</td>
1073
  <td>0%</td>
1074
  </tr>
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1075
  <tr>
1076
  <td>62</td>
1077
  <td>Google</td>
1078
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
1079
  <td>0.213</td>
1080
  <td>0.174</td>
1081
- <td>0.104</td>
1082
  <td>0.150</td>
1083
  <td>0.194</td>
1084
  <td>0.182</td>
1085
- <td>[0.169, 0.194]</td>
1086
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1087
  <td>16%</td>
1088
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -1093,8 +1093,8 @@
1093
  <td>Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot)</td>
1094
  <td>0.205</td>
1095
  <td>0.188</td>
1096
- <td>0.112</td>
1097
- <td>0.161</td>
1098
  <td>0.196</td>
1099
  <td>0.183</td>
1100
  <td>[0.172, 0.194]</td>
@@ -1108,7 +1108,7 @@
1108
  <td>GPT-4o (zero shot)</td>
1109
  <td>0.210</td>
1110
  <td>0.196</td>
1111
- <td>0.083</td>
1112
  <td>0.157</td>
1113
  <td>0.203</td>
1114
  <td>0.183</td>
@@ -1123,8 +1123,8 @@
1123
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
1124
  <td>0.203</td>
1125
  <td>0.198</td>
1126
- <td>0.104</td>
1127
- <td>0.165</td>
1128
  <td>0.200</td>
1129
  <td>0.184</td>
1130
  <td>[0.172, 0.196]</td>
@@ -1138,7 +1138,7 @@
1138
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1139
  <td>0.197</td>
1140
  <td>0.211</td>
1141
- <td>0.102</td>
1142
  <td>0.173</td>
1143
  <td>0.204</td>
1144
  <td>0.185</td>
@@ -1168,8 +1168,8 @@
1168
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1169
  <td>0.222</td>
1170
  <td>0.161</td>
1171
- <td>0.127</td>
1172
- <td>0.149</td>
1173
  <td>0.191</td>
1174
  <td>0.186</td>
1175
  <td>[0.174, 0.197]</td>
@@ -1183,7 +1183,7 @@
1183
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
1184
  <td>0.195</td>
1185
  <td>0.206</td>
1186
- <td>0.118</td>
1187
  <td>0.176</td>
1188
  <td>0.201</td>
1189
  <td>0.186</td>
@@ -1198,7 +1198,7 @@
1198
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news)</td>
1199
  <td>0.203</td>
1200
  <td>0.201</td>
1201
- <td>0.114</td>
1202
  <td>0.171</td>
1203
  <td>0.202</td>
1204
  <td>0.187</td>
@@ -1213,11 +1213,11 @@
1213
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
1214
  <td>0.213</td>
1215
  <td>0.191</td>
1216
- <td>0.103</td>
1217
  <td>0.161</td>
1218
  <td>0.202</td>
1219
  <td>0.187</td>
1220
- <td>[0.177, 0.196]</td>
1221
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1222
  <td>16%</td>
1223
  <td>4%</td>
@@ -1228,11 +1228,11 @@
1228
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news)</td>
1229
  <td>0.213</td>
1230
  <td>0.187</td>
1231
- <td>0.116</td>
1232
  <td>0.162</td>
1233
  <td>0.200</td>
1234
  <td>0.188</td>
1235
- <td>[0.176, 0.199]</td>
1236
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1237
  <td>16%</td>
1238
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -1243,10 +1243,10 @@
1243
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
1244
  <td>0.218</td>
1245
  <td>0.196</td>
1246
- <td>0.089</td>
1247
  <td>0.159</td>
1248
  <td>0.207</td>
1249
- <td>0.188</td>
1250
  <td>[0.174, 0.203]</td>
1251
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1252
  <td>16%</td>
@@ -1258,7 +1258,7 @@
1258
  <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
1259
  <td>0.207</td>
1260
  <td>0.197</td>
1261
- <td>0.122</td>
1262
  <td>0.171</td>
1263
  <td>0.202</td>
1264
  <td>0.189</td>
@@ -1273,13 +1273,13 @@
1273
  <td>Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
1274
  <td>0.224</td>
1275
  <td>0.159</td>
1276
- <td>0.147</td>
1277
- <td>0.154</td>
1278
  <td>0.191</td>
1279
  <td>0.189</td>
1280
  <td>[0.175, 0.204]</td>
1281
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1282
- <td>19%</td>
1283
  <td>0%</td>
1284
  </tr>
1285
  <tr>
@@ -1288,7 +1288,7 @@
1288
  <td>Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news)</td>
1289
  <td>0.234</td>
1290
  <td>0.179</td>
1291
- <td>0.091</td>
1292
  <td>0.148</td>
1293
  <td>0.206</td>
1294
  <td>0.191</td>
@@ -1303,10 +1303,10 @@
1303
  <td>Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad)</td>
1304
  <td>0.208</td>
1305
  <td>0.206</td>
1306
- <td>0.114</td>
1307
- <td>0.174</td>
1308
  <td>0.207</td>
1309
- <td>0.191</td>
1310
  <td>[0.183, 0.2]</td>
1311
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1312
  <td>16%</td>
@@ -1318,7 +1318,7 @@
1318
  <td>Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
1319
  <td>0.234</td>
1320
  <td>0.182</td>
1321
- <td>0.089</td>
1322
  <td>0.150</td>
1323
  <td>0.208</td>
1324
  <td>0.192</td>
@@ -1333,7 +1333,7 @@
1333
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1334
  <td>0.209</td>
1335
  <td>0.217</td>
1336
- <td>0.102</td>
1337
  <td>0.177</td>
1338
  <td>0.213</td>
1339
  <td>0.193</td>
@@ -1363,8 +1363,8 @@
1363
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot)</td>
1364
  <td>0.218</td>
1365
  <td>0.203</td>
1366
- <td>0.103</td>
1367
- <td>0.168</td>
1368
  <td>0.211</td>
1369
  <td>0.193</td>
1370
  <td>[0.182, 0.204]</td>
@@ -1378,7 +1378,7 @@
1378
  <td>GPT-4 (zero shot)</td>
1379
  <td>0.213</td>
1380
  <td>0.212</td>
1381
- <td>0.110</td>
1382
  <td>0.177</td>
1383
  <td>0.213</td>
1384
  <td>0.195</td>
@@ -1427,7 +1427,7 @@
1427
  <td>0.190</td>
1428
  <td>0.209</td>
1429
  <td>0.196</td>
1430
- <td>[0.183, 0.209]</td>
1431
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1432
  <td>16%</td>
1433
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -1444,7 +1444,7 @@
1444
  <td>0.197</td>
1445
  <td>[0.185, 0.208]</td>
1446
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1447
- <td>18%</td>
1448
  <td>12%</td>
1449
  </tr>
1450
  <tr>
@@ -1453,8 +1453,8 @@
1453
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1454
  <td>0.207</td>
1455
  <td>0.218</td>
1456
- <td>0.126</td>
1457
- <td>0.186</td>
1458
  <td>0.213</td>
1459
  <td>0.197</td>
1460
  <td>[0.184, 0.21]</td>
@@ -1468,7 +1468,7 @@
1468
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
1469
  <td>0.225</td>
1470
  <td>0.197</td>
1471
- <td>0.120</td>
1472
  <td>0.170</td>
1473
  <td>0.211</td>
1474
  <td>0.198</td>
@@ -1495,14 +1495,14 @@
1495
  <tr>
1496
  <td>90</td>
1497
  <td>Mistral AI</td>
1498
- <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot)</td>
1499
- <td>0.207</td>
1500
- <td>0.222</td>
1501
- <td>0.139</td>
1502
- <td>0.193</td>
1503
- <td>0.214</td>
1504
  <td>0.200</td>
1505
- <td>[0.186, 0.214]</td>
1506
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1507
  <td>16%</td>
1508
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -1510,14 +1510,14 @@
1510
  <tr>
1511
  <td>91</td>
1512
  <td>Mistral AI</td>
1513
- <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
1514
- <td>0.229</td>
1515
- <td>0.210</td>
1516
- <td>0.098</td>
1517
- <td>0.171</td>
1518
- <td>0.219</td>
1519
  <td>0.200</td>
1520
- <td>[0.189, 0.211]</td>
1521
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1522
  <td>16%</td>
1523
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -1528,8 +1528,8 @@
1528
  <td>Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot)</td>
1529
  <td>0.224</td>
1530
  <td>0.194</td>
1531
- <td>0.163</td>
1532
- <td>0.183</td>
1533
  <td>0.209</td>
1534
  <td>0.204</td>
1535
  <td>[0.188, 0.219]</td>
@@ -1543,8 +1543,8 @@
1543
  <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
1544
  <td>0.260</td>
1545
  <td>0.181</td>
1546
- <td>0.098</td>
1547
- <td>0.152</td>
1548
  <td>0.220</td>
1549
  <td>0.206</td>
1550
  <td>[0.19, 0.222]</td>
@@ -1573,8 +1573,8 @@
1573
  <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
1574
  <td>0.236</td>
1575
  <td>0.203</td>
1576
- <td>0.129</td>
1577
- <td>0.177</td>
1578
  <td>0.220</td>
1579
  <td>0.207</td>
1580
  <td>[0.193, 0.22]</td>
@@ -1588,11 +1588,11 @@
1588
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1589
  <td>0.242</td>
1590
  <td>0.210</td>
1591
- <td>0.114</td>
1592
  <td>0.177</td>
1593
  <td>0.226</td>
1594
  <td>0.210</td>
1595
- <td>[0.195, 0.224]</td>
1596
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1597
  <td>18%</td>
1598
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -1603,7 +1603,7 @@
1603
  <td>Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1604
  <td>0.265</td>
1605
  <td>0.189</td>
1606
- <td>0.098</td>
1607
  <td>0.157</td>
1608
  <td>0.227</td>
1609
  <td>0.211</td>
@@ -1618,7 +1618,7 @@
1618
  <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
1619
  <td>0.242</td>
1620
  <td>0.209</td>
1621
- <td>0.129</td>
1622
  <td>0.181</td>
1623
  <td>0.226</td>
1624
  <td>0.212</td>
@@ -1633,7 +1633,7 @@
1633
  <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
1634
  <td>0.270</td>
1635
  <td>0.168</td>
1636
- <td>0.128</td>
1637
  <td>0.154</td>
1638
  <td>0.219</td>
1639
  <td>0.212</td>
@@ -1666,34 +1666,19 @@
1666
  <td>0.111</td>
1667
  <td>0.179</td>
1668
  <td>0.231</td>
1669
- <td>0.212</td>
1670
- <td>[0.202, 0.222]</td>
1671
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1672
  <td>16%</td>
1673
  <td>1%</td>
1674
  </tr>
1675
  <tr>
1676
  <td>102</td>
1677
- <td>Mistral AI</td>
1678
- <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news)</td>
1679
- <td>0.242</td>
1680
- <td>0.218</td>
1681
- <td>0.126</td>
1682
- <td>0.186</td>
1683
- <td>0.230</td>
1684
- <td>0.214</td>
1685
- <td>[0.203, 0.225]</td>
1686
- <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1687
- <td>15%</td>
1688
- <td>0%</td>
1689
- </tr>
1690
- <tr>
1691
- <td>103</td>
1692
  <td>Qwen</td>
1693
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1694
  <td>0.243</td>
1695
  <td>0.224</td>
1696
- <td>0.114</td>
1697
  <td>0.186</td>
1698
  <td>0.233</td>
1699
  <td>0.214</td>
@@ -1702,14 +1687,29 @@
1702
  <td>16%</td>
1703
  <td>4%</td>
1704
  </tr>
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1705
  <tr>
1706
  <td>104</td>
1707
  <td>Anthropic</td>
1708
  <td>Claude-2.1 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
1709
  <td>0.244</td>
1710
  <td>0.214</td>
1711
- <td>0.131</td>
1712
- <td>0.185</td>
1713
  <td>0.229</td>
1714
  <td>0.215</td>
1715
  <td>[0.198, 0.231]</td>
@@ -1723,11 +1723,11 @@
1723
  <td>GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1724
  <td>0.257</td>
1725
  <td>0.210</td>
1726
- <td>0.111</td>
1727
- <td>0.175</td>
1728
  <td>0.234</td>
1729
  <td>0.216</td>
1730
- <td>[0.202, 0.23]</td>
1731
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1732
  <td>18%</td>
1733
  <td>5%</td>
@@ -1738,7 +1738,7 @@
1738
  <td>Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
1739
  <td>0.257</td>
1740
  <td>0.218</td>
1741
- <td>0.103</td>
1742
  <td>0.178</td>
1743
  <td>0.237</td>
1744
  <td>0.217</td>
@@ -1753,7 +1753,7 @@
1753
  <td>Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1754
  <td>0.274</td>
1755
  <td>0.199</td>
1756
- <td>0.102</td>
1757
  <td>0.165</td>
1758
  <td>0.237</td>
1759
  <td>0.220</td>
@@ -1769,7 +1769,7 @@
1769
  <td>0.237</td>
1770
  <td>0.234</td>
1771
  <td>0.143</td>
1772
- <td>0.202</td>
1773
  <td>0.236</td>
1774
  <td>0.220</td>
1775
  <td>[0.206, 0.234]</td>
@@ -1786,7 +1786,7 @@
1786
  <td>0.159</td>
1787
  <td>0.214</td>
1788
  <td>0.237</td>
1789
- <td>0.222</td>
1790
  <td>[0.209, 0.236]</td>
1791
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1792
  <td>15%</td>
@@ -1798,8 +1798,8 @@
1798
  <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1799
  <td>0.295</td>
1800
  <td>0.175</td>
1801
- <td>0.122</td>
1802
- <td>0.156</td>
1803
  <td>0.235</td>
1804
  <td>0.226</td>
1805
  <td>[0.212, 0.239]</td>
@@ -1825,21 +1825,6 @@
1825
  <tr>
1826
  <td>112</td>
1827
  <td>Mistral AI</td>
1828
- <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news)</td>
1829
- <td>0.291</td>
1830
- <td>0.186</td>
1831
- <td>0.122</td>
1832
- <td>0.163</td>
1833
- <td>0.238</td>
1834
- <td>0.227</td>
1835
- <td>[0.215, 0.239]</td>
1836
- <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1837
- <td>17%</td>
1838
- <td>15%</td>
1839
- </tr>
1840
- <tr>
1841
- <td>113</td>
1842
- <td>Mistral AI</td>
1843
  <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1844
  <td>0.248</td>
1845
  <td>0.232</td>
@@ -1852,16 +1837,31 @@
1852
  <td>15%</td>
1853
  <td>25%</td>
1854
  </tr>
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1855
  <tr>
1856
  <td>114</td>
1857
  <td>Anthropic</td>
1858
  <td>Claude-2.1 (zero shot)</td>
1859
  <td>0.244</td>
1860
  <td>0.240</td>
1861
- <td>0.157</td>
1862
  <td>0.211</td>
1863
  <td>0.242</td>
1864
- <td>0.227</td>
1865
  <td>[0.215, 0.24]</td>
1866
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1867
  <td>15%</td>
@@ -1874,7 +1874,7 @@
1874
  <td>0.267</td>
1875
  <td>0.217</td>
1876
  <td>0.136</td>
1877
- <td>0.188</td>
1878
  <td>0.242</td>
1879
  <td>0.228</td>
1880
  <td>[0.216, 0.239]</td>
@@ -1888,7 +1888,7 @@
1888
  <td>Always 0.5</td>
1889
  <td>0.250</td>
1890
  <td>0.250</td>
1891
- <td>0.132</td>
1892
  <td>0.209</td>
1893
  <td>0.250</td>
1894
  <td>0.230</td>
@@ -1918,7 +1918,7 @@
1918
  <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1919
  <td>0.289</td>
1920
  <td>0.197</td>
1921
- <td>0.128</td>
1922
  <td>0.173</td>
1923
  <td>0.243</td>
1924
  <td>0.231</td>
@@ -1948,10 +1948,10 @@
1948
  <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot)</td>
1949
  <td>0.260</td>
1950
  <td>0.234</td>
1951
- <td>0.158</td>
1952
- <td>0.207</td>
1953
  <td>0.247</td>
1954
- <td>0.233</td>
1955
  <td>[0.216, 0.251]</td>
1956
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1957
  <td>19%</td>
@@ -1963,7 +1963,7 @@
1963
  <td>Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
1964
  <td>0.280</td>
1965
  <td>0.226</td>
1966
- <td>0.122</td>
1967
  <td>0.190</td>
1968
  <td>0.253</td>
1969
  <td>0.235</td>
@@ -1979,7 +1979,7 @@
1979
  <td>0.262</td>
1980
  <td>0.249</td>
1981
  <td>0.138</td>
1982
- <td>0.210</td>
1983
  <td>0.255</td>
1984
  <td>0.236</td>
1985
  <td>[0.226, 0.246]</td>
@@ -1993,11 +1993,11 @@
1993
  <td>Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
1994
  <td>0.270</td>
1995
  <td>0.248</td>
1996
- <td>0.139</td>
1997
  <td>0.210</td>
1998
  <td>0.259</td>
1999
  <td>0.240</td>
2000
- <td>[0.229, 0.251]</td>
2001
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2002
  <td>14%</td>
2003
  <td>1%</td>
@@ -2027,7 +2027,7 @@
2027
  <td>0.218</td>
2028
  <td>0.266</td>
2029
  <td>0.244</td>
2030
- <td>[0.234, 0.254]</td>
2031
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2032
  <td>15%</td>
2033
  <td>1%</td>
@@ -2053,10 +2053,10 @@
2053
  <td>Always 0</td>
2054
  <td>0.269</td>
2055
  <td>0.218</td>
2056
- <td>0.230</td>
2057
  <td>0.222</td>
2058
  <td>0.243</td>
2059
- <td>0.245</td>
2060
  <td>[0.221, 0.27]</td>
2061
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2062
  <td>46%</td>
@@ -2068,7 +2068,7 @@
2068
  <td>Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot)</td>
2069
  <td>0.280</td>
2070
  <td>0.253</td>
2071
- <td>0.136</td>
2072
  <td>0.212</td>
2073
  <td>0.266</td>
2074
  <td>0.246</td>
@@ -2086,7 +2086,7 @@
2086
  <td>0.156</td>
2087
  <td>0.222</td>
2088
  <td>0.272</td>
2089
- <td>0.254</td>
2090
  <td>[0.245, 0.264]</td>
2091
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2092
  <td>14%</td>
@@ -2098,11 +2098,11 @@
2098
  <td>Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
2099
  <td>0.305</td>
2100
  <td>0.252</td>
2101
- <td>0.121</td>
2102
- <td>0.206</td>
2103
  <td>0.278</td>
2104
  <td>0.256</td>
2105
- <td>[0.245, 0.266]</td>
2106
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2107
  <td>14%</td>
2108
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -2116,7 +2116,7 @@
2116
  <td>0.166</td>
2117
  <td>0.233</td>
2118
  <td>0.278</td>
2119
- <td>0.260</td>
2120
  <td>[0.25, 0.271]</td>
2121
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2122
  <td>14%</td>
@@ -2129,7 +2129,7 @@
2129
  <td>0.305</td>
2130
  <td>0.262</td>
2131
  <td>0.134</td>
2132
- <td>0.217</td>
2133
  <td>0.283</td>
2134
  <td>0.261</td>
2135
  <td>[0.251, 0.271]</td>
@@ -2143,7 +2143,7 @@
2143
  <td>GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad)</td>
2144
  <td>0.288</td>
2145
  <td>0.291</td>
2146
- <td>0.161</td>
2147
  <td>0.246</td>
2148
  <td>0.289</td>
2149
  <td>0.267</td>
@@ -2188,7 +2188,7 @@
2188
  <td>Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot)</td>
2189
  <td>0.304</td>
2190
  <td>0.337</td>
2191
- <td>0.185</td>
2192
  <td>0.284</td>
2193
  <td>0.320</td>
2194
  <td>0.294</td>
@@ -2203,7 +2203,7 @@
2203
  <td>Random Uniform</td>
2204
  <td>0.340</td>
2205
  <td>0.311</td>
2206
- <td>0.190</td>
2207
  <td>0.269</td>
2208
  <td>0.325</td>
2209
  <td>0.304</td>
@@ -2221,7 +2221,7 @@
2221
  <td>0.171</td>
2222
  <td>0.227</td>
2223
  <td>0.351</td>
2224
- <td>0.336</td>
2225
  <td>[0.318, 0.355]</td>
2226
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2227
  <td>20%</td>
@@ -2234,12 +2234,12 @@
2234
  <td>0.446</td>
2235
  <td>0.320</td>
2236
  <td>0.200</td>
2237
- <td>0.278</td>
2238
  <td>0.383</td>
2239
  <td>0.362</td>
2240
  <td>[0.346, 0.378]</td>
2241
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2242
- <td>16%</td>
2243
  <td>0%</td>
2244
  </tr>
2245
  <tr>
 
66
  </head>
67
  <body>
68
  <div class="container mt-4">
69
+ <h1>Human Combo Leaderboard: overall</h1><p class="updated-date">Updated Feb. 16, 2025</p>
70
  <div style="display: flex; align-items: center;">
71
  <a data-bs-toggle="collapse" data-bs-target="#descriptionCollapse" aria-expanded="false"
72
  aria-controls="descriptionCollapse" style="text-decoration: none; color: inherit;
 
163
  <td>Superforecaster median forecast</td>
164
  <td>0.091</td>
165
  <td>0.062</td>
166
+ <td>0.062</td>
167
+ <td>0.062</td>
168
  <td>0.076</td>
169
  <td>0.076</td>
170
+ <td>[0.067, 0.086]</td>
171
  <td></td>
172
  <td>0%</td>
173
  <td>0%</td>
 
178
  <td>Public median forecast</td>
179
  <td>0.119</td>
180
  <td>0.092</td>
181
+ <td>0.035</td>
182
  <td>0.072</td>
183
  <td>0.105</td>
184
+ <td>0.096</td>
185
  <td>[0.086, 0.105]</td>
186
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
187
  <td>23%</td>
 
193
  <td>GPT-4o (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
194
  <td>0.175</td>
195
  <td>0.107</td>
196
+ <td>0.043</td>
197
  <td>0.085</td>
198
  <td>0.141</td>
199
  <td>0.130</td>
 
208
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
209
  <td>0.154</td>
210
  <td>0.144</td>
211
+ <td>0.038</td>
212
  <td>0.107</td>
213
  <td>0.149</td>
214
  <td>0.131</td>
215
  <td>[0.118, 0.143]</td>
216
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
217
+ <td>24%</td>
218
  <td>0%</td>
219
  </tr>
220
  <tr>
 
226
  <td>0.054</td>
227
  <td>0.101</td>
228
  <td>0.145</td>
229
+ <td>0.133</td>
230
+ <td>[0.121, 0.145]</td>
231
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
232
  <td>23%</td>
233
  <td>0%</td>
 
238
  <td>GPT-4o (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
239
  <td>0.171</td>
240
  <td>0.132</td>
241
+ <td>0.051</td>
242
  <td>0.103</td>
243
  <td>0.151</td>
244
  <td>0.137</td>
 
253
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
254
  <td>0.152</td>
255
  <td>0.158</td>
256
+ <td>0.077</td>
257
+ <td>0.130</td>
258
  <td>0.155</td>
259
  <td>0.141</td>
260
  <td>[0.13, 0.152]</td>
 
268
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
269
  <td>0.154</td>
270
  <td>0.164</td>
271
+ <td>0.075</td>
272
  <td>0.133</td>
273
  <td>0.159</td>
274
  <td>0.143</td>
275
+ <td>[0.133, 0.154]</td>
276
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
277
  <td>21%</td>
278
  <td>1%</td>
 
283
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
284
  <td>0.160</td>
285
  <td>0.158</td>
286
+ <td>0.078</td>
287
  <td>0.130</td>
288
  <td>0.159</td>
289
  <td>0.145</td>
290
+ <td>[0.132, 0.158]</td>
291
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
292
  <td>20%</td>
293
  <td>0%</td>
 
298
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
299
  <td>0.174</td>
300
  <td>0.148</td>
301
+ <td>0.064</td>
302
  <td>0.119</td>
303
  <td>0.161</td>
304
  <td>0.146</td>
 
313
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad)</td>
314
  <td>0.152</td>
315
  <td>0.172</td>
316
+ <td>0.089</td>
317
  <td>0.143</td>
318
  <td>0.162</td>
319
  <td>0.148</td>
 
328
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad)</td>
329
  <td>0.164</td>
330
  <td>0.154</td>
331
+ <td>0.091</td>
332
  <td>0.132</td>
333
  <td>0.159</td>
334
  <td>0.148</td>
 
343
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news)</td>
344
  <td>0.154</td>
345
  <td>0.165</td>
346
+ <td>0.101</td>
347
  <td>0.143</td>
348
  <td>0.159</td>
349
  <td>0.148</td>
350
+ <td>[0.137, 0.16]</td>
351
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
352
  <td>21%</td>
353
  <td>1%</td>
 
358
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad)</td>
359
  <td>0.154</td>
360
  <td>0.166</td>
361
+ <td>0.099</td>
362
+ <td>0.143</td>
363
  <td>0.160</td>
364
+ <td>0.149</td>
365
  <td>[0.137, 0.16]</td>
366
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
367
  <td>20%</td>
 
369
  </tr>
370
  <tr>
371
  <td>15</td>
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
372
  <td>OpenAI</td>
373
  <td>GPT-4o (scratchpad)</td>
374
  <td>0.175</td>
375
  <td>0.144</td>
376
+ <td>0.082</td>
377
  <td>0.122</td>
378
  <td>0.159</td>
379
+ <td>0.149</td>
380
  <td>[0.138, 0.159]</td>
381
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
382
  <td>19%</td>
383
  <td>1%</td>
384
  </tr>
385
+ <tr>
386
+ <td>16</td>
387
+ <td>Anthropic</td>
388
+ <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
389
+ <td>0.173</td>
390
+ <td>0.162</td>
391
+ <td>0.054</td>
392
+ <td>0.124</td>
393
+ <td>0.167</td>
394
+ <td>0.149</td>
395
+ <td>[0.135, 0.162]</td>
396
+ <td>&lt;0.001</td>
397
+ <td>21%</td>
398
+ <td>0%</td>
399
+ </tr>
400
  <tr>
401
  <td>17</td>
402
  <td>OpenAI</td>
 
418
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
419
  <td>0.200</td>
420
  <td>0.125</td>
421
+ <td>0.052</td>
422
+ <td>0.100</td>
423
  <td>0.163</td>
424
  <td>0.150</td>
425
  <td>[0.137, 0.162]</td>
 
433
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
434
  <td>0.171</td>
435
  <td>0.160</td>
436
+ <td>0.078</td>
437
  <td>0.131</td>
438
  <td>0.165</td>
439
  <td>0.151</td>
 
448
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news)</td>
449
  <td>0.160</td>
450
  <td>0.174</td>
451
+ <td>0.102</td>
452
+ <td>0.149</td>
453
  <td>0.167</td>
454
  <td>0.154</td>
455
+ <td>[0.143, 0.166]</td>
456
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
457
  <td>19%</td>
458
  <td>0%</td>
 
463
  <td>Imputed Forecaster</td>
464
  <td>0.250</td>
465
  <td>0.073</td>
466
+ <td>0.034</td>
467
  <td>0.059</td>
468
  <td>0.161</td>
469
+ <td>0.155</td>
470
+ <td>[0.146, 0.163]</td>
471
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
472
  <td>22%</td>
473
  <td>100%</td>
 
478
  <td>GPT-4 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
479
  <td>0.213</td>
480
  <td>0.125</td>
481
+ <td>0.052</td>
482
  <td>0.099</td>
483
  <td>0.169</td>
484
  <td>0.156</td>
 
493
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
494
  <td>0.205</td>
495
  <td>0.125</td>
496
+ <td>0.082</td>
497
  <td>0.110</td>
498
  <td>0.165</td>
499
  <td>0.157</td>
500
+ <td>[0.144, 0.171]</td>
501
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
502
  <td>20%</td>
503
  <td>15%</td>
 
508
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
509
  <td>0.167</td>
510
  <td>0.181</td>
511
+ <td>0.088</td>
512
  <td>0.148</td>
513
  <td>0.174</td>
514
+ <td>0.158</td>
515
+ <td>[0.146, 0.169]</td>
516
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
517
  <td>17%</td>
518
  <td>2%</td>
 
538
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
539
  <td>0.185</td>
540
  <td>0.161</td>
541
+ <td>0.084</td>
542
  <td>0.134</td>
543
  <td>0.173</td>
544
  <td>0.159</td>
545
  <td>[0.148, 0.171]</td>
546
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
547
+ <td>18%</td>
548
  <td>0%</td>
549
  </tr>
550
  <tr>
 
553
  <td>LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news</td>
554
  <td>0.241</td>
555
  <td>0.097</td>
556
+ <td>0.050</td>
557
  <td>0.080</td>
558
  <td>0.169</td>
559
  <td>0.161</td>
 
568
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
569
  <td>0.209</td>
570
  <td>0.132</td>
571
+ <td>0.081</td>
572
  <td>0.114</td>
573
  <td>0.170</td>
574
  <td>0.161</td>
 
583
  <td>LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news</td>
584
  <td>0.242</td>
585
  <td>0.100</td>
586
+ <td>0.050</td>
587
+ <td>0.083</td>
588
  <td>0.171</td>
589
  <td>0.162</td>
590
+ <td>[0.155, 0.17]</td>
591
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
592
  <td>18%</td>
593
  <td>76%</td>
 
602
  <td>0.082</td>
603
  <td>0.171</td>
604
  <td>0.162</td>
605
+ <td>[0.155, 0.17]</td>
606
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
607
  <td>18%</td>
608
  <td>76%</td>
 
613
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
614
  <td>0.176</td>
615
  <td>0.176</td>
616
+ <td>0.106</td>
617
  <td>0.151</td>
618
  <td>0.176</td>
619
  <td>0.164</td>
620
+ <td>[0.153, 0.175]</td>
621
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
622
  <td>19%</td>
623
  <td>1%</td>
 
628
  <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
629
  <td>0.185</td>
630
  <td>0.166</td>
631
+ <td>0.100</td>
632
  <td>0.143</td>
633
  <td>0.176</td>
634
  <td>0.164</td>
635
+ <td>[0.154, 0.175]</td>
636
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
637
  <td>16%</td>
638
  <td>0%</td>
 
643
  <td>GPT-4 (scratchpad)</td>
644
  <td>0.190</td>
645
  <td>0.169</td>
646
+ <td>0.086</td>
647
  <td>0.140</td>
648
  <td>0.180</td>
649
  <td>0.165</td>
 
661
  <td>0.111</td>
662
  <td>0.160</td>
663
  <td>0.179</td>
664
+ <td>0.166</td>
665
  <td>[0.156, 0.175]</td>
666
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
667
  <td>15%</td>
 
673
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot)</td>
674
  <td>0.205</td>
675
  <td>0.136</td>
676
+ <td>0.113</td>
677
  <td>0.128</td>
678
  <td>0.171</td>
679
+ <td>0.167</td>
680
  <td>[0.154, 0.179]</td>
681
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
682
  <td>19%</td>
 
688
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
689
  <td>0.179</td>
690
  <td>0.182</td>
691
+ <td>0.103</td>
692
  <td>0.154</td>
693
  <td>0.180</td>
694
  <td>0.167</td>
 
703
  <td>Claude-2.1 (scratchpad)</td>
704
  <td>0.228</td>
705
  <td>0.117</td>
706
+ <td>0.084</td>
707
  <td>0.105</td>
708
  <td>0.172</td>
709
  <td>0.167</td>
710
+ <td>[0.157, 0.177]</td>
711
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
712
  <td>20%</td>
713
  <td>24%</td>
 
718
  <td>Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
719
  <td>0.205</td>
720
  <td>0.168</td>
721
+ <td>0.065</td>
722
  <td>0.132</td>
723
  <td>0.186</td>
724
  <td>0.168</td>
 
733
  <td>Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
734
  <td>0.208</td>
735
  <td>0.156</td>
736
+ <td>0.078</td>
737
  <td>0.129</td>
738
  <td>0.182</td>
739
  <td>0.169</td>
 
748
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
749
  <td>0.217</td>
750
  <td>0.150</td>
751
+ <td>0.069</td>
752
  <td>0.121</td>
753
  <td>0.183</td>
754
  <td>0.169</td>
 
763
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot)</td>
764
  <td>0.173</td>
765
  <td>0.201</td>
766
+ <td>0.098</td>
767
  <td>0.165</td>
768
  <td>0.187</td>
769
  <td>0.169</td>
770
+ <td>[0.156, 0.183]</td>
771
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
772
  <td>18%</td>
773
  <td>0%</td>
 
778
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot)</td>
779
  <td>0.200</td>
780
  <td>0.160</td>
781
+ <td>0.100</td>
782
+ <td>0.139</td>
783
  <td>0.180</td>
784
  <td>0.169</td>
785
  <td>[0.157, 0.182]</td>
 
839
  <td>0.198</td>
840
  <td>0.172</td>
841
  <td>0.096</td>
842
+ <td>0.146</td>
843
  <td>0.185</td>
844
  <td>0.172</td>
845
  <td>[0.161, 0.183]</td>
 
853
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot)</td>
854
  <td>0.174</td>
855
  <td>0.197</td>
856
+ <td>0.122</td>
857
+ <td>0.171</td>
858
  <td>0.185</td>
859
  <td>0.172</td>
860
+ <td>[0.158, 0.187]</td>
861
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
862
  <td>17%</td>
863
  <td>1%</td>
 
868
  <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
869
  <td>0.203</td>
870
  <td>0.184</td>
871
+ <td>0.071</td>
872
+ <td>0.145</td>
873
  <td>0.194</td>
874
  <td>0.174</td>
875
+ <td>[0.16, 0.188]</td>
876
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
877
  <td>19%</td>
878
  <td>0%</td>
 
883
  <td>Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
884
  <td>0.228</td>
885
  <td>0.147</td>
886
+ <td>0.070</td>
887
  <td>0.120</td>
888
  <td>0.187</td>
889
  <td>0.174</td>
 
913
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad)</td>
914
  <td>0.185</td>
915
  <td>0.206</td>
916
+ <td>0.106</td>
917
  <td>0.171</td>
918
  <td>0.195</td>
919
  <td>0.178</td>
 
928
  <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad)</td>
929
  <td>0.185</td>
930
  <td>0.197</td>
931
+ <td>0.122</td>
932
+ <td>0.171</td>
933
  <td>0.191</td>
934
  <td>0.178</td>
935
  <td>[0.168, 0.188]</td>
 
943
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with SECOND news)</td>
944
  <td>0.217</td>
945
  <td>0.165</td>
946
+ <td>0.094</td>
947
  <td>0.140</td>
948
  <td>0.191</td>
949
  <td>0.178</td>
950
+ <td>[0.167, 0.19]</td>
951
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
952
  <td>15%</td>
953
  <td>1%</td>
 
958
  <td>GPT-4o (scratchpad with SECOND news)</td>
959
  <td>0.232</td>
960
  <td>0.139</td>
961
+ <td>0.101</td>
962
+ <td>0.126</td>
963
  <td>0.185</td>
964
  <td>0.179</td>
965
  <td>[0.168, 0.19]</td>
 
973
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
974
  <td>0.203</td>
975
  <td>0.184</td>
976
+ <td>0.101</td>
977
  <td>0.155</td>
978
  <td>0.194</td>
979
  <td>0.179</td>
980
+ <td>[0.168, 0.191]</td>
981
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
982
  <td>17%</td>
983
  <td>15%</td>
 
1018
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1019
  <td>0.203</td>
1020
  <td>0.190</td>
1021
+ <td>0.100</td>
1022
+ <td>0.159</td>
1023
  <td>0.196</td>
1024
+ <td>0.181</td>
1025
  <td>[0.168, 0.193]</td>
1026
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1027
  <td>18%</td>
 
1033
  <td>GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1034
  <td>0.200</td>
1035
  <td>0.194</td>
1036
+ <td>0.102</td>
1037
  <td>0.162</td>
1038
  <td>0.197</td>
1039
  <td>0.181</td>
 
1044
  </tr>
1045
  <tr>
1046
  <td>60</td>
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1047
  <td>Qwen</td>
1048
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news)</td>
1049
  <td>0.198</td>
1050
  <td>0.191</td>
1051
+ <td>0.113</td>
1052
  <td>0.164</td>
1053
  <td>0.194</td>
1054
  <td>0.181</td>
 
1057
  <td>16%</td>
1058
  <td>0%</td>
1059
  </tr>
1060
+ <tr>
1061
+ <td>61</td>
1062
+ <td>OpenAI</td>
1063
+ <td>GPT-4o (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
1064
+ <td>0.210</td>
1065
+ <td>0.175</td>
1066
+ <td>0.111</td>
1067
+ <td>0.152</td>
1068
+ <td>0.192</td>
1069
+ <td>0.181</td>
1070
+ <td>[0.165, 0.197]</td>
1071
+ <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1072
+ <td>21%</td>
1073
+ <td>1%</td>
1074
+ </tr>
1075
  <tr>
1076
  <td>62</td>
1077
  <td>Google</td>
1078
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
1079
  <td>0.213</td>
1080
  <td>0.174</td>
1081
+ <td>0.105</td>
1082
  <td>0.150</td>
1083
  <td>0.194</td>
1084
  <td>0.182</td>
1085
+ <td>[0.169, 0.195]</td>
1086
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1087
  <td>16%</td>
1088
  <td>0%</td>
 
1093
  <td>Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot)</td>
1094
  <td>0.205</td>
1095
  <td>0.188</td>
1096
+ <td>0.113</td>
1097
+ <td>0.162</td>
1098
  <td>0.196</td>
1099
  <td>0.183</td>
1100
  <td>[0.172, 0.194]</td>
 
1108
  <td>GPT-4o (zero shot)</td>
1109
  <td>0.210</td>
1110
  <td>0.196</td>
1111
+ <td>0.085</td>
1112
  <td>0.157</td>
1113
  <td>0.203</td>
1114
  <td>0.183</td>
 
1123
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
1124
  <td>0.203</td>
1125
  <td>0.198</td>
1126
+ <td>0.105</td>
1127
+ <td>0.166</td>
1128
  <td>0.200</td>
1129
  <td>0.184</td>
1130
  <td>[0.172, 0.196]</td>
 
1138
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1139
  <td>0.197</td>
1140
  <td>0.211</td>
1141
+ <td>0.103</td>
1142
  <td>0.173</td>
1143
  <td>0.204</td>
1144
  <td>0.185</td>
 
1168
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1169
  <td>0.222</td>
1170
  <td>0.161</td>
1171
+ <td>0.128</td>
1172
+ <td>0.150</td>
1173
  <td>0.191</td>
1174
  <td>0.186</td>
1175
  <td>[0.174, 0.197]</td>
 
1183
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
1184
  <td>0.195</td>
1185
  <td>0.206</td>
1186
+ <td>0.119</td>
1187
  <td>0.176</td>
1188
  <td>0.201</td>
1189
  <td>0.186</td>
 
1198
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news)</td>
1199
  <td>0.203</td>
1200
  <td>0.201</td>
1201
+ <td>0.115</td>
1202
  <td>0.171</td>
1203
  <td>0.202</td>
1204
  <td>0.187</td>
 
1213
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
1214
  <td>0.213</td>
1215
  <td>0.191</td>
1216
+ <td>0.104</td>
1217
  <td>0.161</td>
1218
  <td>0.202</td>
1219
  <td>0.187</td>
1220
+ <td>[0.178, 0.197]</td>
1221
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1222
  <td>16%</td>
1223
  <td>4%</td>
 
1228
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news)</td>
1229
  <td>0.213</td>
1230
  <td>0.187</td>
1231
+ <td>0.117</td>
1232
  <td>0.162</td>
1233
  <td>0.200</td>
1234
  <td>0.188</td>
1235
+ <td>[0.177, 0.199]</td>
1236
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1237
  <td>16%</td>
1238
  <td>0%</td>
 
1243
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
1244
  <td>0.218</td>
1245
  <td>0.196</td>
1246
+ <td>0.090</td>
1247
  <td>0.159</td>
1248
  <td>0.207</td>
1249
+ <td>0.189</td>
1250
  <td>[0.174, 0.203]</td>
1251
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1252
  <td>16%</td>
 
1258
  <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
1259
  <td>0.207</td>
1260
  <td>0.197</td>
1261
+ <td>0.123</td>
1262
  <td>0.171</td>
1263
  <td>0.202</td>
1264
  <td>0.189</td>
 
1273
  <td>Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
1274
  <td>0.224</td>
1275
  <td>0.159</td>
1276
+ <td>0.148</td>
1277
+ <td>0.155</td>
1278
  <td>0.191</td>
1279
  <td>0.189</td>
1280
  <td>[0.175, 0.204]</td>
1281
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1282
+ <td>18%</td>
1283
  <td>0%</td>
1284
  </tr>
1285
  <tr>
 
1288
  <td>Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news)</td>
1289
  <td>0.234</td>
1290
  <td>0.179</td>
1291
+ <td>0.092</td>
1292
  <td>0.148</td>
1293
  <td>0.206</td>
1294
  <td>0.191</td>
 
1303
  <td>Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad)</td>
1304
  <td>0.208</td>
1305
  <td>0.206</td>
1306
+ <td>0.115</td>
1307
+ <td>0.175</td>
1308
  <td>0.207</td>
1309
+ <td>0.192</td>
1310
  <td>[0.183, 0.2]</td>
1311
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1312
  <td>16%</td>
 
1318
  <td>Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
1319
  <td>0.234</td>
1320
  <td>0.182</td>
1321
+ <td>0.090</td>
1322
  <td>0.150</td>
1323
  <td>0.208</td>
1324
  <td>0.192</td>
 
1333
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1334
  <td>0.209</td>
1335
  <td>0.217</td>
1336
+ <td>0.103</td>
1337
  <td>0.177</td>
1338
  <td>0.213</td>
1339
  <td>0.193</td>
 
1363
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot)</td>
1364
  <td>0.218</td>
1365
  <td>0.203</td>
1366
+ <td>0.104</td>
1367
+ <td>0.169</td>
1368
  <td>0.211</td>
1369
  <td>0.193</td>
1370
  <td>[0.182, 0.204]</td>
 
1378
  <td>GPT-4 (zero shot)</td>
1379
  <td>0.213</td>
1380
  <td>0.212</td>
1381
+ <td>0.111</td>
1382
  <td>0.177</td>
1383
  <td>0.213</td>
1384
  <td>0.195</td>
 
1427
  <td>0.190</td>
1428
  <td>0.209</td>
1429
  <td>0.196</td>
1430
+ <td>[0.184, 0.209]</td>
1431
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1432
  <td>16%</td>
1433
  <td>0%</td>
 
1444
  <td>0.197</td>
1445
  <td>[0.185, 0.208]</td>
1446
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1447
+ <td>19%</td>
1448
  <td>12%</td>
1449
  </tr>
1450
  <tr>
 
1453
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1454
  <td>0.207</td>
1455
  <td>0.218</td>
1456
+ <td>0.127</td>
1457
+ <td>0.187</td>
1458
  <td>0.213</td>
1459
  <td>0.197</td>
1460
  <td>[0.184, 0.21]</td>
 
1468
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
1469
  <td>0.225</td>
1470
  <td>0.197</td>
1471
+ <td>0.121</td>
1472
  <td>0.170</td>
1473
  <td>0.211</td>
1474
  <td>0.198</td>
 
1495
  <tr>
1496
  <td>90</td>
1497
  <td>Mistral AI</td>
1498
+ <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
1499
+ <td>0.229</td>
1500
+ <td>0.210</td>
1501
+ <td>0.099</td>
1502
+ <td>0.171</td>
1503
+ <td>0.219</td>
1504
  <td>0.200</td>
1505
+ <td>[0.189, 0.211]</td>
1506
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1507
  <td>16%</td>
1508
  <td>0%</td>
 
1510
  <tr>
1511
  <td>91</td>
1512
  <td>Mistral AI</td>
1513
+ <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot)</td>
1514
+ <td>0.207</td>
1515
+ <td>0.222</td>
1516
+ <td>0.140</td>
1517
+ <td>0.193</td>
1518
+ <td>0.214</td>
1519
  <td>0.200</td>
1520
+ <td>[0.186, 0.214]</td>
1521
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1522
  <td>16%</td>
1523
  <td>0%</td>
 
1528
  <td>Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot)</td>
1529
  <td>0.224</td>
1530
  <td>0.194</td>
1531
+ <td>0.164</td>
1532
+ <td>0.184</td>
1533
  <td>0.209</td>
1534
  <td>0.204</td>
1535
  <td>[0.188, 0.219]</td>
 
1543
  <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
1544
  <td>0.260</td>
1545
  <td>0.181</td>
1546
+ <td>0.099</td>
1547
+ <td>0.153</td>
1548
  <td>0.220</td>
1549
  <td>0.206</td>
1550
  <td>[0.19, 0.222]</td>
 
1573
  <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
1574
  <td>0.236</td>
1575
  <td>0.203</td>
1576
+ <td>0.130</td>
1577
+ <td>0.178</td>
1578
  <td>0.220</td>
1579
  <td>0.207</td>
1580
  <td>[0.193, 0.22]</td>
 
1588
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1589
  <td>0.242</td>
1590
  <td>0.210</td>
1591
+ <td>0.115</td>
1592
  <td>0.177</td>
1593
  <td>0.226</td>
1594
  <td>0.210</td>
1595
+ <td>[0.195, 0.225]</td>
1596
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1597
  <td>18%</td>
1598
  <td>0%</td>
 
1603
  <td>Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1604
  <td>0.265</td>
1605
  <td>0.189</td>
1606
+ <td>0.099</td>
1607
  <td>0.157</td>
1608
  <td>0.227</td>
1609
  <td>0.211</td>
 
1618
  <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
1619
  <td>0.242</td>
1620
  <td>0.209</td>
1621
+ <td>0.130</td>
1622
  <td>0.181</td>
1623
  <td>0.226</td>
1624
  <td>0.212</td>
 
1633
  <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
1634
  <td>0.270</td>
1635
  <td>0.168</td>
1636
+ <td>0.129</td>
1637
  <td>0.154</td>
1638
  <td>0.219</td>
1639
  <td>0.212</td>
 
1666
  <td>0.111</td>
1667
  <td>0.179</td>
1668
  <td>0.231</td>
1669
+ <td>0.213</td>
1670
+ <td>[0.203, 0.223]</td>
1671
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1672
  <td>16%</td>
1673
  <td>1%</td>
1674
  </tr>
1675
  <tr>
1676
  <td>102</td>
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1677
  <td>Qwen</td>
1678
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1679
  <td>0.243</td>
1680
  <td>0.224</td>
1681
+ <td>0.115</td>
1682
  <td>0.186</td>
1683
  <td>0.233</td>
1684
  <td>0.214</td>
 
1687
  <td>16%</td>
1688
  <td>4%</td>
1689
  </tr>
1690
+ <tr>
1691
+ <td>103</td>
1692
+ <td>Mistral AI</td>
1693
+ <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news)</td>
1694
+ <td>0.242</td>
1695
+ <td>0.218</td>
1696
+ <td>0.127</td>
1697
+ <td>0.186</td>
1698
+ <td>0.230</td>
1699
+ <td>0.214</td>
1700
+ <td>[0.203, 0.225]</td>
1701
+ <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1702
+ <td>15%</td>
1703
+ <td>0%</td>
1704
+ </tr>
1705
  <tr>
1706
  <td>104</td>
1707
  <td>Anthropic</td>
1708
  <td>Claude-2.1 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
1709
  <td>0.244</td>
1710
  <td>0.214</td>
1711
+ <td>0.132</td>
1712
+ <td>0.186</td>
1713
  <td>0.229</td>
1714
  <td>0.215</td>
1715
  <td>[0.198, 0.231]</td>
 
1723
  <td>GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1724
  <td>0.257</td>
1725
  <td>0.210</td>
1726
+ <td>0.112</td>
1727
+ <td>0.176</td>
1728
  <td>0.234</td>
1729
  <td>0.216</td>
1730
+ <td>[0.203, 0.23]</td>
1731
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1732
  <td>18%</td>
1733
  <td>5%</td>
 
1738
  <td>Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
1739
  <td>0.257</td>
1740
  <td>0.218</td>
1741
+ <td>0.104</td>
1742
  <td>0.178</td>
1743
  <td>0.237</td>
1744
  <td>0.217</td>
 
1753
  <td>Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1754
  <td>0.274</td>
1755
  <td>0.199</td>
1756
+ <td>0.103</td>
1757
  <td>0.165</td>
1758
  <td>0.237</td>
1759
  <td>0.220</td>
 
1769
  <td>0.237</td>
1770
  <td>0.234</td>
1771
  <td>0.143</td>
1772
+ <td>0.203</td>
1773
  <td>0.236</td>
1774
  <td>0.220</td>
1775
  <td>[0.206, 0.234]</td>
 
1786
  <td>0.159</td>
1787
  <td>0.214</td>
1788
  <td>0.237</td>
1789
+ <td>0.223</td>
1790
  <td>[0.209, 0.236]</td>
1791
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1792
  <td>15%</td>
 
1798
  <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1799
  <td>0.295</td>
1800
  <td>0.175</td>
1801
+ <td>0.123</td>
1802
+ <td>0.157</td>
1803
  <td>0.235</td>
1804
  <td>0.226</td>
1805
  <td>[0.212, 0.239]</td>
 
1825
  <tr>
1826
  <td>112</td>
1827
  <td>Mistral AI</td>
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1828
  <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1829
  <td>0.248</td>
1830
  <td>0.232</td>
 
1837
  <td>15%</td>
1838
  <td>25%</td>
1839
  </tr>
1840
+ <tr>
1841
+ <td>113</td>
1842
+ <td>Mistral AI</td>
1843
+ <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news)</td>
1844
+ <td>0.291</td>
1845
+ <td>0.186</td>
1846
+ <td>0.123</td>
1847
+ <td>0.164</td>
1848
+ <td>0.238</td>
1849
+ <td>0.227</td>
1850
+ <td>[0.215, 0.24]</td>
1851
+ <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1852
+ <td>17%</td>
1853
+ <td>15%</td>
1854
+ </tr>
1855
  <tr>
1856
  <td>114</td>
1857
  <td>Anthropic</td>
1858
  <td>Claude-2.1 (zero shot)</td>
1859
  <td>0.244</td>
1860
  <td>0.240</td>
1861
+ <td>0.158</td>
1862
  <td>0.211</td>
1863
  <td>0.242</td>
1864
+ <td>0.228</td>
1865
  <td>[0.215, 0.24]</td>
1866
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1867
  <td>15%</td>
 
1874
  <td>0.267</td>
1875
  <td>0.217</td>
1876
  <td>0.136</td>
1877
+ <td>0.189</td>
1878
  <td>0.242</td>
1879
  <td>0.228</td>
1880
  <td>[0.216, 0.239]</td>
 
1888
  <td>Always 0.5</td>
1889
  <td>0.250</td>
1890
  <td>0.250</td>
1891
+ <td>0.133</td>
1892
  <td>0.209</td>
1893
  <td>0.250</td>
1894
  <td>0.230</td>
 
1918
  <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1919
  <td>0.289</td>
1920
  <td>0.197</td>
1921
+ <td>0.129</td>
1922
  <td>0.173</td>
1923
  <td>0.243</td>
1924
  <td>0.231</td>
 
1948
  <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot)</td>
1949
  <td>0.260</td>
1950
  <td>0.234</td>
1951
+ <td>0.159</td>
1952
+ <td>0.208</td>
1953
  <td>0.247</td>
1954
+ <td>0.234</td>
1955
  <td>[0.216, 0.251]</td>
1956
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1957
  <td>19%</td>
 
1963
  <td>Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
1964
  <td>0.280</td>
1965
  <td>0.226</td>
1966
+ <td>0.123</td>
1967
  <td>0.190</td>
1968
  <td>0.253</td>
1969
  <td>0.235</td>
 
1979
  <td>0.262</td>
1980
  <td>0.249</td>
1981
  <td>0.138</td>
1982
+ <td>0.211</td>
1983
  <td>0.255</td>
1984
  <td>0.236</td>
1985
  <td>[0.226, 0.246]</td>
 
1993
  <td>Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
1994
  <td>0.270</td>
1995
  <td>0.248</td>
1996
+ <td>0.140</td>
1997
  <td>0.210</td>
1998
  <td>0.259</td>
1999
  <td>0.240</td>
2000
+ <td>[0.229, 0.252]</td>
2001
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2002
  <td>14%</td>
2003
  <td>1%</td>
 
2027
  <td>0.218</td>
2028
  <td>0.266</td>
2029
  <td>0.244</td>
2030
+ <td>[0.235, 0.254]</td>
2031
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2032
  <td>15%</td>
2033
  <td>1%</td>
 
2053
  <td>Always 0</td>
2054
  <td>0.269</td>
2055
  <td>0.218</td>
2056
+ <td>0.231</td>
2057
  <td>0.222</td>
2058
  <td>0.243</td>
2059
+ <td>0.246</td>
2060
  <td>[0.221, 0.27]</td>
2061
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2062
  <td>46%</td>
 
2068
  <td>Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot)</td>
2069
  <td>0.280</td>
2070
  <td>0.253</td>
2071
+ <td>0.137</td>
2072
  <td>0.212</td>
2073
  <td>0.266</td>
2074
  <td>0.246</td>
 
2086
  <td>0.156</td>
2087
  <td>0.222</td>
2088
  <td>0.272</td>
2089
+ <td>0.255</td>
2090
  <td>[0.245, 0.264]</td>
2091
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2092
  <td>14%</td>
 
2098
  <td>Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
2099
  <td>0.305</td>
2100
  <td>0.252</td>
2101
+ <td>0.122</td>
2102
+ <td>0.207</td>
2103
  <td>0.278</td>
2104
  <td>0.256</td>
2105
+ <td>[0.246, 0.266]</td>
2106
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2107
  <td>14%</td>
2108
  <td>0%</td>
 
2116
  <td>0.166</td>
2117
  <td>0.233</td>
2118
  <td>0.278</td>
2119
+ <td>0.261</td>
2120
  <td>[0.25, 0.271]</td>
2121
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2122
  <td>14%</td>
 
2129
  <td>0.305</td>
2130
  <td>0.262</td>
2131
  <td>0.134</td>
2132
+ <td>0.218</td>
2133
  <td>0.283</td>
2134
  <td>0.261</td>
2135
  <td>[0.251, 0.271]</td>
 
2143
  <td>GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad)</td>
2144
  <td>0.288</td>
2145
  <td>0.291</td>
2146
+ <td>0.162</td>
2147
  <td>0.246</td>
2148
  <td>0.289</td>
2149
  <td>0.267</td>
 
2188
  <td>Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot)</td>
2189
  <td>0.304</td>
2190
  <td>0.337</td>
2191
+ <td>0.186</td>
2192
  <td>0.284</td>
2193
  <td>0.320</td>
2194
  <td>0.294</td>
 
2203
  <td>Random Uniform</td>
2204
  <td>0.340</td>
2205
  <td>0.311</td>
2206
+ <td>0.191</td>
2207
  <td>0.269</td>
2208
  <td>0.325</td>
2209
  <td>0.304</td>
 
2221
  <td>0.171</td>
2222
  <td>0.227</td>
2223
  <td>0.351</td>
2224
+ <td>0.337</td>
2225
  <td>[0.318, 0.355]</td>
2226
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2227
  <td>20%</td>
 
2234
  <td>0.446</td>
2235
  <td>0.320</td>
2236
  <td>0.200</td>
2237
+ <td>0.279</td>
2238
  <td>0.383</td>
2239
  <td>0.362</td>
2240
  <td>[0.346, 0.378]</td>
2241
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2242
+ <td>17%</td>
2243
  <td>0%</td>
2244
  </tr>
2245
  <tr>
leaderboards/html/human_leaderboard_overall.html CHANGED
@@ -66,7 +66,7 @@
66
  </head>
67
  <body>
68
  <div class="container mt-4">
69
- <h1>Human Leaderboard: overall</h1><p class="updated-date">Updated Feb. 14, 2025</p>
70
  <div style="display: flex; align-items: center;">
71
  <a data-bs-toggle="collapse" data-bs-target="#descriptionCollapse" aria-expanded="false"
72
  aria-controls="descriptionCollapse" style="text-decoration: none; color: inherit;
@@ -163,11 +163,11 @@
163
  <td>Superforecaster median forecast</td>
164
  <td>0.118</td>
165
  <td>0.084</td>
166
- <td>0.056</td>
167
  <td>0.074</td>
168
  <td>0.101</td>
169
  <td>0.096</td>
170
- <td>[0.075, 0.116]</td>
171
  <td></td>
172
  <td>0%</td>
173
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -193,8 +193,8 @@
193
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
194
  <td>0.138</td>
195
  <td>0.153</td>
196
- <td>0.022</td>
197
- <td>0.106</td>
198
  <td>0.145</td>
199
  <td>0.122</td>
200
  <td>[0.099, 0.146]</td>
@@ -223,7 +223,7 @@
223
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
224
  <td>0.162</td>
225
  <td>0.136</td>
226
- <td>0.019</td>
227
  <td>0.095</td>
228
  <td>0.149</td>
229
  <td>0.128</td>
@@ -253,7 +253,7 @@
253
  <td>GPT-4 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
254
  <td>0.167</td>
255
  <td>0.136</td>
256
- <td>0.023</td>
257
  <td>0.096</td>
258
  <td>0.152</td>
259
  <td>0.132</td>
@@ -268,11 +268,11 @@
268
  <td>GPT-4o (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
269
  <td>0.162</td>
270
  <td>0.136</td>
271
- <td>0.047</td>
272
- <td>0.104</td>
273
  <td>0.149</td>
274
  <td>0.133</td>
275
- <td>[0.113, 0.153]</td>
276
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
277
  <td>25%</td>
278
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -328,7 +328,7 @@
328
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
329
  <td>0.163</td>
330
  <td>0.162</td>
331
- <td>0.030</td>
332
  <td>0.115</td>
333
  <td>0.163</td>
334
  <td>0.139</td>
@@ -403,8 +403,8 @@
403
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
404
  <td>0.160</td>
405
  <td>0.157</td>
406
- <td>0.076</td>
407
- <td>0.128</td>
408
  <td>0.159</td>
409
  <td>0.144</td>
410
  <td>[0.125, 0.163]</td>
@@ -433,7 +433,7 @@
433
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
434
  <td>0.163</td>
435
  <td>0.166</td>
436
- <td>0.065</td>
437
  <td>0.130</td>
438
  <td>0.164</td>
439
  <td>0.146</td>
@@ -448,7 +448,7 @@
448
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad)</td>
449
  <td>0.162</td>
450
  <td>0.169</td>
451
- <td>0.062</td>
452
  <td>0.131</td>
453
  <td>0.166</td>
454
  <td>0.147</td>
@@ -478,7 +478,7 @@
478
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot)</td>
479
  <td>0.162</td>
480
  <td>0.174</td>
481
- <td>0.068</td>
482
  <td>0.137</td>
483
  <td>0.168</td>
484
  <td>0.149</td>
@@ -493,7 +493,7 @@
493
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
494
  <td>0.176</td>
495
  <td>0.155</td>
496
- <td>0.065</td>
497
  <td>0.123</td>
498
  <td>0.166</td>
499
  <td>0.150</td>
@@ -504,21 +504,6 @@
504
  </tr>
505
  <tr>
506
  <td>24</td>
507
- <td>Google</td>
508
- <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
509
- <td>0.162</td>
510
- <td>0.168</td>
511
- <td>0.082</td>
512
- <td>0.138</td>
513
- <td>0.165</td>
514
- <td>0.150</td>
515
- <td>[0.132, 0.168]</td>
516
- <td>&lt;0.001</td>
517
- <td>22%</td>
518
- <td>0%</td>
519
- </tr>
520
- <tr>
521
- <td>25</td>
522
  <td>OpenAI</td>
523
  <td>GPT-4 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
524
  <td>0.174</td>
@@ -532,6 +517,21 @@
532
  <td>21%</td>
533
  <td>1%</td>
534
  </tr>
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
535
  <tr>
536
  <td>26</td>
537
  <td>Anthropic</td>
@@ -553,7 +553,7 @@
553
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news)</td>
554
  <td>0.163</td>
555
  <td>0.168</td>
556
- <td>0.093</td>
557
  <td>0.141</td>
558
  <td>0.165</td>
559
  <td>0.152</td>
@@ -568,7 +568,7 @@
568
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
569
  <td>0.157</td>
570
  <td>0.192</td>
571
- <td>0.066</td>
572
  <td>0.147</td>
573
  <td>0.174</td>
574
  <td>0.152</td>
@@ -584,7 +584,7 @@
584
  <td>0.178</td>
585
  <td>0.137</td>
586
  <td>0.111</td>
587
- <td>0.127</td>
588
  <td>0.157</td>
589
  <td>0.153</td>
590
  <td>[0.13, 0.175]</td>
@@ -598,7 +598,7 @@
598
  <td>GPT-4o (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
599
  <td>0.197</td>
600
  <td>0.158</td>
601
- <td>0.019</td>
602
  <td>0.109</td>
603
  <td>0.178</td>
604
  <td>0.153</td>
@@ -643,8 +643,8 @@
643
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad)</td>
644
  <td>0.176</td>
645
  <td>0.169</td>
646
- <td>0.065</td>
647
- <td>0.132</td>
648
  <td>0.173</td>
649
  <td>0.154</td>
650
  <td>[0.137, 0.171]</td>
@@ -658,7 +658,7 @@
658
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
659
  <td>0.185</td>
660
  <td>0.173</td>
661
- <td>0.035</td>
662
  <td>0.124</td>
663
  <td>0.179</td>
664
  <td>0.155</td>
@@ -703,7 +703,7 @@
703
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
704
  <td>0.197</td>
705
  <td>0.157</td>
706
- <td>0.039</td>
707
  <td>0.115</td>
708
  <td>0.177</td>
709
  <td>0.156</td>
@@ -722,7 +722,7 @@
722
  <td>0.095</td>
723
  <td>0.167</td>
724
  <td>0.156</td>
725
- <td>[0.138, 0.174]</td>
726
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
727
  <td>24%</td>
728
  <td>23%</td>
@@ -748,7 +748,7 @@
748
  <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
749
  <td>0.185</td>
750
  <td>0.165</td>
751
- <td>0.068</td>
752
  <td>0.130</td>
753
  <td>0.175</td>
754
  <td>0.158</td>
@@ -797,7 +797,7 @@
797
  <td>0.073</td>
798
  <td>0.177</td>
799
  <td>0.161</td>
800
- <td>[0.142, 0.18]</td>
801
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
802
  <td>26%</td>
803
  <td>100%</td>
@@ -823,7 +823,7 @@
823
  <td>Claude-2.1 (scratchpad)</td>
824
  <td>0.217</td>
825
  <td>0.121</td>
826
- <td>0.086</td>
827
  <td>0.109</td>
828
  <td>0.169</td>
829
  <td>0.163</td>
@@ -838,8 +838,8 @@
838
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
839
  <td>0.179</td>
840
  <td>0.188</td>
841
- <td>0.073</td>
842
- <td>0.147</td>
843
  <td>0.184</td>
844
  <td>0.163</td>
845
  <td>[0.144, 0.183]</td>
@@ -883,7 +883,7 @@
883
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with SECOND news)</td>
884
  <td>0.197</td>
885
  <td>0.162</td>
886
- <td>0.079</td>
887
  <td>0.133</td>
888
  <td>0.180</td>
889
  <td>0.165</td>
@@ -910,21 +910,6 @@
910
  <tr>
911
  <td>51</td>
912
  <td>OpenAI</td>
913
- <td>GPT-4 (zero shot)</td>
914
- <td>0.167</td>
915
- <td>0.197</td>
916
- <td>0.106</td>
917
- <td>0.165</td>
918
- <td>0.182</td>
919
- <td>0.166</td>
920
- <td>[0.147, 0.185]</td>
921
- <td>&lt;0.001</td>
922
- <td>22%</td>
923
- <td>0%</td>
924
- </tr>
925
- <tr>
926
- <td>52</td>
927
- <td>OpenAI</td>
928
  <td>GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
929
  <td>0.198</td>
930
  <td>0.177</td>
@@ -937,17 +922,32 @@
937
  <td>21%</td>
938
  <td>9%</td>
939
  </tr>
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
940
  <tr>
941
  <td>53</td>
942
  <td>Google</td>
943
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
944
  <td>0.183</td>
945
  <td>0.179</td>
946
- <td>0.096</td>
947
  <td>0.150</td>
948
  <td>0.181</td>
949
  <td>0.166</td>
950
- <td>[0.146, 0.186]</td>
951
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
952
  <td>22%</td>
953
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -988,10 +988,10 @@
988
  <td>GPT-4o (zero shot)</td>
989
  <td>0.197</td>
990
  <td>0.174</td>
991
- <td>0.077</td>
992
- <td>0.139</td>
993
  <td>0.186</td>
994
- <td>0.168</td>
995
  <td>[0.147, 0.19]</td>
996
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
997
  <td>21%</td>
@@ -1003,7 +1003,7 @@
1003
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news)</td>
1004
  <td>0.179</td>
1005
  <td>0.200</td>
1006
- <td>0.087</td>
1007
  <td>0.160</td>
1008
  <td>0.190</td>
1009
  <td>0.170</td>
@@ -1078,11 +1078,11 @@
1078
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1079
  <td>0.194</td>
1080
  <td>0.193</td>
1081
- <td>0.074</td>
1082
  <td>0.151</td>
1083
  <td>0.194</td>
1084
  <td>0.172</td>
1085
- <td>[0.15, 0.195]</td>
1086
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1087
  <td>22%</td>
1088
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -1093,10 +1093,10 @@
1093
  <td>Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
1094
  <td>0.206</td>
1095
  <td>0.167</td>
1096
- <td>0.088</td>
1097
  <td>0.139</td>
1098
  <td>0.186</td>
1099
- <td>0.172</td>
1100
  <td>[0.147, 0.198]</td>
1101
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1102
  <td>23%</td>
@@ -1153,7 +1153,7 @@
1153
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
1154
  <td>0.214</td>
1155
  <td>0.169</td>
1156
- <td>0.076</td>
1157
  <td>0.136</td>
1158
  <td>0.192</td>
1159
  <td>0.175</td>
@@ -1183,7 +1183,7 @@
1183
  <td>Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
1184
  <td>0.225</td>
1185
  <td>0.165</td>
1186
- <td>0.061</td>
1187
  <td>0.128</td>
1188
  <td>0.195</td>
1189
  <td>0.177</td>
@@ -1198,8 +1198,8 @@
1198
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1199
  <td>0.174</td>
1200
  <td>0.210</td>
1201
- <td>0.125</td>
1202
- <td>0.180</td>
1203
  <td>0.192</td>
1204
  <td>0.177</td>
1205
  <td>[0.152, 0.202]</td>
@@ -1213,7 +1213,7 @@
1213
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1214
  <td>0.203</td>
1215
  <td>0.200</td>
1216
- <td>0.067</td>
1217
  <td>0.153</td>
1218
  <td>0.201</td>
1219
  <td>0.178</td>
@@ -1243,7 +1243,7 @@
1243
  <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
1244
  <td>0.225</td>
1245
  <td>0.187</td>
1246
- <td>0.029</td>
1247
  <td>0.131</td>
1248
  <td>0.206</td>
1249
  <td>0.178</td>
@@ -1258,7 +1258,7 @@
1258
  <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
1259
  <td>0.201</td>
1260
  <td>0.180</td>
1261
- <td>0.111</td>
1262
  <td>0.156</td>
1263
  <td>0.191</td>
1264
  <td>0.178</td>
@@ -1288,11 +1288,11 @@
1288
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot)</td>
1289
  <td>0.197</td>
1290
  <td>0.199</td>
1291
- <td>0.092</td>
1292
  <td>0.161</td>
1293
  <td>0.198</td>
1294
  <td>0.179</td>
1295
- <td>[0.159, 0.199]</td>
1296
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1297
  <td>15%</td>
1298
  <td>1%</td>
@@ -1303,8 +1303,8 @@
1303
  <td>Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
1304
  <td>0.214</td>
1305
  <td>0.176</td>
1306
- <td>0.090</td>
1307
- <td>0.145</td>
1308
  <td>0.195</td>
1309
  <td>0.180</td>
1310
  <td>[0.158, 0.202]</td>
@@ -1363,11 +1363,11 @@
1363
  <td>Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot)</td>
1364
  <td>0.206</td>
1365
  <td>0.191</td>
1366
- <td>0.093</td>
1367
  <td>0.156</td>
1368
  <td>0.198</td>
1369
  <td>0.181</td>
1370
- <td>[0.154, 0.207]</td>
1371
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1372
  <td>23%</td>
1373
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -1378,11 +1378,11 @@
1378
  <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1379
  <td>0.212</td>
1380
  <td>0.190</td>
1381
- <td>0.090</td>
1382
  <td>0.155</td>
1383
  <td>0.201</td>
1384
  <td>0.183</td>
1385
- <td>[0.158, 0.208]</td>
1386
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1387
  <td>21%</td>
1388
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -1393,7 +1393,7 @@
1393
  <td>LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news</td>
1394
  <td>0.237</td>
1395
  <td>0.167</td>
1396
- <td>0.063</td>
1397
  <td>0.131</td>
1398
  <td>0.202</td>
1399
  <td>0.184</td>
@@ -1423,7 +1423,7 @@
1423
  <td>LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news</td>
1424
  <td>0.237</td>
1425
  <td>0.168</td>
1426
- <td>0.063</td>
1427
  <td>0.131</td>
1428
  <td>0.203</td>
1429
  <td>0.184</td>
@@ -1438,8 +1438,8 @@
1438
  <td>Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news)</td>
1439
  <td>0.214</td>
1440
  <td>0.181</td>
1441
- <td>0.105</td>
1442
- <td>0.154</td>
1443
  <td>0.198</td>
1444
  <td>0.184</td>
1445
  <td>[0.161, 0.207]</td>
@@ -1453,11 +1453,11 @@
1453
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1454
  <td>0.201</td>
1455
  <td>0.221</td>
1456
- <td>0.068</td>
1457
- <td>0.167</td>
1458
  <td>0.211</td>
1459
- <td>0.184</td>
1460
- <td>[0.16, 0.208]</td>
1461
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1462
  <td>22%</td>
1463
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -1513,7 +1513,7 @@
1513
  <td>GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1514
  <td>0.229</td>
1515
  <td>0.171</td>
1516
- <td>0.097</td>
1517
  <td>0.145</td>
1518
  <td>0.200</td>
1519
  <td>0.187</td>
@@ -1528,7 +1528,7 @@
1528
  <td>Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad)</td>
1529
  <td>0.191</td>
1530
  <td>0.220</td>
1531
- <td>0.117</td>
1532
  <td>0.184</td>
1533
  <td>0.206</td>
1534
  <td>0.187</td>
@@ -1588,7 +1588,7 @@
1588
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news)</td>
1589
  <td>0.220</td>
1590
  <td>0.182</td>
1591
- <td>0.117</td>
1592
  <td>0.159</td>
1593
  <td>0.201</td>
1594
  <td>0.190</td>
@@ -1648,11 +1648,11 @@
1648
  <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1649
  <td>0.251</td>
1650
  <td>0.162</td>
1651
- <td>0.091</td>
1652
  <td>0.137</td>
1653
  <td>0.207</td>
1654
  <td>0.194</td>
1655
- <td>[0.17, 0.219]</td>
1656
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1657
  <td>29%</td>
1658
  <td>22%</td>
@@ -1738,11 +1738,11 @@
1738
  <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1739
  <td>0.209</td>
1740
  <td>0.225</td>
1741
- <td>0.118</td>
1742
  <td>0.187</td>
1743
  <td>0.217</td>
1744
  <td>0.198</td>
1745
- <td>[0.173, 0.223]</td>
1746
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1747
  <td>21%</td>
1748
  <td>1%</td>
@@ -1772,33 +1772,18 @@
1772
  <td>0.151</td>
1773
  <td>0.221</td>
1774
  <td>0.200</td>
1775
- <td>[0.174, 0.225]</td>
1776
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1777
  <td>26%</td>
1778
  <td>15%</td>
1779
  </tr>
1780
  <tr>
1781
  <td>109</td>
1782
- <td>Google</td>
1783
- <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1784
- <td>0.220</td>
1785
- <td>0.221</td>
1786
- <td>0.122</td>
1787
- <td>0.185</td>
1788
- <td>0.220</td>
1789
- <td>0.203</td>
1790
- <td>[0.174, 0.231]</td>
1791
- <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1792
- <td>21%</td>
1793
- <td>0%</td>
1794
- </tr>
1795
- <tr>
1796
- <td>110</td>
1797
  <td>Mistral AI</td>
1798
  <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
1799
  <td>0.205</td>
1800
  <td>0.229</td>
1801
- <td>0.150</td>
1802
  <td>0.201</td>
1803
  <td>0.217</td>
1804
  <td>0.203</td>
@@ -1807,17 +1792,32 @@
1807
  <td>24%</td>
1808
  <td>11%</td>
1809
  </tr>
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1810
  <tr>
1811
  <td>111</td>
1812
  <td>Qwen</td>
1813
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1814
  <td>0.225</td>
1815
  <td>0.232</td>
1816
- <td>0.096</td>
1817
  <td>0.183</td>
1818
  <td>0.228</td>
1819
  <td>0.204</td>
1820
- <td>[0.183, 0.226]</td>
1821
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1822
  <td>22%</td>
1823
  <td>4%</td>
@@ -1828,11 +1828,11 @@
1828
  <td>Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
1829
  <td>0.233</td>
1830
  <td>0.234</td>
1831
- <td>0.072</td>
1832
  <td>0.176</td>
1833
  <td>0.234</td>
1834
  <td>0.205</td>
1835
- <td>[0.178, 0.232]</td>
1836
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1837
  <td>25%</td>
1838
  <td>1%</td>
@@ -1858,7 +1858,7 @@
1858
  <td>Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
1859
  <td>0.226</td>
1860
  <td>0.234</td>
1861
- <td>0.097</td>
1862
  <td>0.186</td>
1863
  <td>0.230</td>
1864
  <td>0.206</td>
@@ -1873,11 +1873,11 @@
1873
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1874
  <td>0.228</td>
1875
  <td>0.216</td>
1876
- <td>0.139</td>
1877
  <td>0.188</td>
1878
  <td>0.222</td>
1879
  <td>0.208</td>
1880
- <td>[0.183, 0.234]</td>
1881
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1882
  <td>20%</td>
1883
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -1919,7 +1919,7 @@
1919
  <td>0.233</td>
1920
  <td>0.221</td>
1921
  <td>0.127</td>
1922
- <td>0.188</td>
1923
  <td>0.227</td>
1924
  <td>0.210</td>
1925
  <td>[0.191, 0.229]</td>
@@ -1951,8 +1951,8 @@
1951
  <td>0.102</td>
1952
  <td>0.194</td>
1953
  <td>0.238</td>
1954
- <td>0.212</td>
1955
- <td>[0.184, 0.24]</td>
1956
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1957
  <td>22%</td>
1958
  <td>1%</td>
@@ -1978,7 +1978,7 @@
1978
  <td>Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
1979
  <td>0.301</td>
1980
  <td>0.161</td>
1981
- <td>0.069</td>
1982
  <td>0.129</td>
1983
  <td>0.231</td>
1984
  <td>0.215</td>
@@ -2023,8 +2023,8 @@
2023
  <td>Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
2024
  <td>0.260</td>
2025
  <td>0.230</td>
2026
- <td>0.095</td>
2027
- <td>0.182</td>
2028
  <td>0.245</td>
2029
  <td>0.221</td>
2030
  <td>[0.197, 0.246]</td>
@@ -2038,7 +2038,7 @@
2038
  <td>GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
2039
  <td>0.258</td>
2040
  <td>0.241</td>
2041
- <td>0.104</td>
2042
  <td>0.192</td>
2043
  <td>0.249</td>
2044
  <td>0.225</td>
@@ -2053,7 +2053,7 @@
2053
  <td>Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
2054
  <td>0.277</td>
2055
  <td>0.215</td>
2056
- <td>0.104</td>
2057
  <td>0.176</td>
2058
  <td>0.246</td>
2059
  <td>0.226</td>
@@ -2098,7 +2098,7 @@
2098
  <td>Always 0.5</td>
2099
  <td>0.250</td>
2100
  <td>0.250</td>
2101
- <td>0.131</td>
2102
  <td>0.208</td>
2103
  <td>0.250</td>
2104
  <td>0.229</td>
@@ -2158,7 +2158,7 @@
2158
  <td>Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot)</td>
2159
  <td>0.233</td>
2160
  <td>0.322</td>
2161
- <td>0.126</td>
2162
  <td>0.252</td>
2163
  <td>0.277</td>
2164
  <td>0.243</td>
@@ -2203,10 +2203,10 @@
2203
  <td>Always 0</td>
2204
  <td>0.329</td>
2205
  <td>0.286</td>
2206
- <td>0.206</td>
2207
- <td>0.257</td>
2208
  <td>0.308</td>
2209
- <td>0.293</td>
2210
  <td>[0.242, 0.345]</td>
2211
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2212
  <td>41%</td>
@@ -2218,8 +2218,8 @@
2218
  <td>Random Uniform</td>
2219
  <td>0.357</td>
2220
  <td>0.302</td>
2221
- <td>0.193</td>
2222
- <td>0.263</td>
2223
  <td>0.329</td>
2224
  <td>0.310</td>
2225
  <td>[0.274, 0.346]</td>
@@ -2233,7 +2233,7 @@
2233
  <td>GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot)</td>
2234
  <td>0.422</td>
2235
  <td>0.256</td>
2236
- <td>0.170</td>
2237
  <td>0.226</td>
2238
  <td>0.339</td>
2239
  <td>0.324</td>
@@ -2248,10 +2248,10 @@
2248
  <td>Always 1</td>
2249
  <td>0.671</td>
2250
  <td>0.714</td>
2251
- <td>0.557</td>
2252
  <td>0.658</td>
2253
  <td>0.692</td>
2254
- <td>0.665</td>
2255
  <td>[0.61, 0.719]</td>
2256
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2257
  <td>26%</td>
 
66
  </head>
67
  <body>
68
  <div class="container mt-4">
69
+ <h1>Human Leaderboard: overall</h1><p class="updated-date">Updated Feb. 16, 2025</p>
70
  <div style="display: flex; align-items: center;">
71
  <a data-bs-toggle="collapse" data-bs-target="#descriptionCollapse" aria-expanded="false"
72
  aria-controls="descriptionCollapse" style="text-decoration: none; color: inherit;
 
163
  <td>Superforecaster median forecast</td>
164
  <td>0.118</td>
165
  <td>0.084</td>
166
+ <td>0.058</td>
167
  <td>0.074</td>
168
  <td>0.101</td>
169
  <td>0.096</td>
170
+ <td>[0.076, 0.116]</td>
171
  <td></td>
172
  <td>0%</td>
173
  <td>0%</td>
 
193
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
194
  <td>0.138</td>
195
  <td>0.153</td>
196
+ <td>0.023</td>
197
+ <td>0.107</td>
198
  <td>0.145</td>
199
  <td>0.122</td>
200
  <td>[0.099, 0.146]</td>
 
223
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
224
  <td>0.162</td>
225
  <td>0.136</td>
226
+ <td>0.020</td>
227
  <td>0.095</td>
228
  <td>0.149</td>
229
  <td>0.128</td>
 
253
  <td>GPT-4 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
254
  <td>0.167</td>
255
  <td>0.136</td>
256
+ <td>0.024</td>
257
  <td>0.096</td>
258
  <td>0.152</td>
259
  <td>0.132</td>
 
268
  <td>GPT-4o (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
269
  <td>0.162</td>
270
  <td>0.136</td>
271
+ <td>0.048</td>
272
+ <td>0.105</td>
273
  <td>0.149</td>
274
  <td>0.133</td>
275
+ <td>[0.113, 0.154]</td>
276
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
277
  <td>25%</td>
278
  <td>0%</td>
 
328
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
329
  <td>0.163</td>
330
  <td>0.162</td>
331
+ <td>0.031</td>
332
  <td>0.115</td>
333
  <td>0.163</td>
334
  <td>0.139</td>
 
403
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
404
  <td>0.160</td>
405
  <td>0.157</td>
406
+ <td>0.077</td>
407
+ <td>0.129</td>
408
  <td>0.159</td>
409
  <td>0.144</td>
410
  <td>[0.125, 0.163]</td>
 
433
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
434
  <td>0.163</td>
435
  <td>0.166</td>
436
+ <td>0.064</td>
437
  <td>0.130</td>
438
  <td>0.164</td>
439
  <td>0.146</td>
 
448
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad)</td>
449
  <td>0.162</td>
450
  <td>0.169</td>
451
+ <td>0.063</td>
452
  <td>0.131</td>
453
  <td>0.166</td>
454
  <td>0.147</td>
 
478
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot)</td>
479
  <td>0.162</td>
480
  <td>0.174</td>
481
+ <td>0.069</td>
482
  <td>0.137</td>
483
  <td>0.168</td>
484
  <td>0.149</td>
 
493
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
494
  <td>0.176</td>
495
  <td>0.155</td>
496
+ <td>0.066</td>
497
  <td>0.123</td>
498
  <td>0.166</td>
499
  <td>0.150</td>
 
504
  </tr>
505
  <tr>
506
  <td>24</td>
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
507
  <td>OpenAI</td>
508
  <td>GPT-4 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
509
  <td>0.174</td>
 
517
  <td>21%</td>
518
  <td>1%</td>
519
  </tr>
520
+ <tr>
521
+ <td>25</td>
522
+ <td>Google</td>
523
+ <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
524
+ <td>0.162</td>
525
+ <td>0.168</td>
526
+ <td>0.082</td>
527
+ <td>0.138</td>
528
+ <td>0.165</td>
529
+ <td>0.150</td>
530
+ <td>[0.132, 0.169]</td>
531
+ <td>&lt;0.001</td>
532
+ <td>22%</td>
533
+ <td>0%</td>
534
+ </tr>
535
  <tr>
536
  <td>26</td>
537
  <td>Anthropic</td>
 
553
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news)</td>
554
  <td>0.163</td>
555
  <td>0.168</td>
556
+ <td>0.094</td>
557
  <td>0.141</td>
558
  <td>0.165</td>
559
  <td>0.152</td>
 
568
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
569
  <td>0.157</td>
570
  <td>0.192</td>
571
+ <td>0.067</td>
572
  <td>0.147</td>
573
  <td>0.174</td>
574
  <td>0.152</td>
 
584
  <td>0.178</td>
585
  <td>0.137</td>
586
  <td>0.111</td>
587
+ <td>0.128</td>
588
  <td>0.157</td>
589
  <td>0.153</td>
590
  <td>[0.13, 0.175]</td>
 
598
  <td>GPT-4o (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
599
  <td>0.197</td>
600
  <td>0.158</td>
601
+ <td>0.020</td>
602
  <td>0.109</td>
603
  <td>0.178</td>
604
  <td>0.153</td>
 
643
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad)</td>
644
  <td>0.176</td>
645
  <td>0.169</td>
646
+ <td>0.066</td>
647
+ <td>0.133</td>
648
  <td>0.173</td>
649
  <td>0.154</td>
650
  <td>[0.137, 0.171]</td>
 
658
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
659
  <td>0.185</td>
660
  <td>0.173</td>
661
+ <td>0.036</td>
662
  <td>0.124</td>
663
  <td>0.179</td>
664
  <td>0.155</td>
 
703
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
704
  <td>0.197</td>
705
  <td>0.157</td>
706
+ <td>0.040</td>
707
  <td>0.115</td>
708
  <td>0.177</td>
709
  <td>0.156</td>
 
722
  <td>0.095</td>
723
  <td>0.167</td>
724
  <td>0.156</td>
725
+ <td>[0.138, 0.175]</td>
726
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
727
  <td>24%</td>
728
  <td>23%</td>
 
748
  <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
749
  <td>0.185</td>
750
  <td>0.165</td>
751
+ <td>0.069</td>
752
  <td>0.130</td>
753
  <td>0.175</td>
754
  <td>0.158</td>
 
797
  <td>0.073</td>
798
  <td>0.177</td>
799
  <td>0.161</td>
800
+ <td>[0.142, 0.181]</td>
801
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
802
  <td>26%</td>
803
  <td>100%</td>
 
823
  <td>Claude-2.1 (scratchpad)</td>
824
  <td>0.217</td>
825
  <td>0.121</td>
826
+ <td>0.087</td>
827
  <td>0.109</td>
828
  <td>0.169</td>
829
  <td>0.163</td>
 
838
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
839
  <td>0.179</td>
840
  <td>0.188</td>
841
+ <td>0.074</td>
842
+ <td>0.148</td>
843
  <td>0.184</td>
844
  <td>0.163</td>
845
  <td>[0.144, 0.183]</td>
 
883
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with SECOND news)</td>
884
  <td>0.197</td>
885
  <td>0.162</td>
886
+ <td>0.078</td>
887
  <td>0.133</td>
888
  <td>0.180</td>
889
  <td>0.165</td>
 
910
  <tr>
911
  <td>51</td>
912
  <td>OpenAI</td>
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
913
  <td>GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
914
  <td>0.198</td>
915
  <td>0.177</td>
 
922
  <td>21%</td>
923
  <td>9%</td>
924
  </tr>
925
+ <tr>
926
+ <td>52</td>
927
+ <td>OpenAI</td>
928
+ <td>GPT-4 (zero shot)</td>
929
+ <td>0.167</td>
930
+ <td>0.197</td>
931
+ <td>0.106</td>
932
+ <td>0.165</td>
933
+ <td>0.182</td>
934
+ <td>0.166</td>
935
+ <td>[0.147, 0.185]</td>
936
+ <td>&lt;0.001</td>
937
+ <td>22%</td>
938
+ <td>0%</td>
939
+ </tr>
940
  <tr>
941
  <td>53</td>
942
  <td>Google</td>
943
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
944
  <td>0.183</td>
945
  <td>0.179</td>
946
+ <td>0.098</td>
947
  <td>0.150</td>
948
  <td>0.181</td>
949
  <td>0.166</td>
950
+ <td>[0.147, 0.186]</td>
951
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
952
  <td>22%</td>
953
  <td>0%</td>
 
988
  <td>GPT-4o (zero shot)</td>
989
  <td>0.197</td>
990
  <td>0.174</td>
991
+ <td>0.078</td>
992
+ <td>0.140</td>
993
  <td>0.186</td>
994
+ <td>0.169</td>
995
  <td>[0.147, 0.19]</td>
996
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
997
  <td>21%</td>
 
1003
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news)</td>
1004
  <td>0.179</td>
1005
  <td>0.200</td>
1006
+ <td>0.088</td>
1007
  <td>0.160</td>
1008
  <td>0.190</td>
1009
  <td>0.170</td>
 
1078
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1079
  <td>0.194</td>
1080
  <td>0.193</td>
1081
+ <td>0.073</td>
1082
  <td>0.151</td>
1083
  <td>0.194</td>
1084
  <td>0.172</td>
1085
+ <td>[0.149, 0.195]</td>
1086
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1087
  <td>22%</td>
1088
  <td>0%</td>
 
1093
  <td>Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
1094
  <td>0.206</td>
1095
  <td>0.167</td>
1096
+ <td>0.090</td>
1097
  <td>0.139</td>
1098
  <td>0.186</td>
1099
+ <td>0.173</td>
1100
  <td>[0.147, 0.198]</td>
1101
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1102
  <td>23%</td>
 
1153
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
1154
  <td>0.214</td>
1155
  <td>0.169</td>
1156
+ <td>0.077</td>
1157
  <td>0.136</td>
1158
  <td>0.192</td>
1159
  <td>0.175</td>
 
1183
  <td>Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
1184
  <td>0.225</td>
1185
  <td>0.165</td>
1186
+ <td>0.062</td>
1187
  <td>0.128</td>
1188
  <td>0.195</td>
1189
  <td>0.177</td>
 
1198
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1199
  <td>0.174</td>
1200
  <td>0.210</td>
1201
+ <td>0.124</td>
1202
+ <td>0.179</td>
1203
  <td>0.192</td>
1204
  <td>0.177</td>
1205
  <td>[0.152, 0.202]</td>
 
1213
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1214
  <td>0.203</td>
1215
  <td>0.200</td>
1216
+ <td>0.068</td>
1217
  <td>0.153</td>
1218
  <td>0.201</td>
1219
  <td>0.178</td>
 
1243
  <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
1244
  <td>0.225</td>
1245
  <td>0.187</td>
1246
+ <td>0.030</td>
1247
  <td>0.131</td>
1248
  <td>0.206</td>
1249
  <td>0.178</td>
 
1258
  <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
1259
  <td>0.201</td>
1260
  <td>0.180</td>
1261
+ <td>0.112</td>
1262
  <td>0.156</td>
1263
  <td>0.191</td>
1264
  <td>0.178</td>
 
1288
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot)</td>
1289
  <td>0.197</td>
1290
  <td>0.199</td>
1291
+ <td>0.093</td>
1292
  <td>0.161</td>
1293
  <td>0.198</td>
1294
  <td>0.179</td>
1295
+ <td>[0.16, 0.199]</td>
1296
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1297
  <td>15%</td>
1298
  <td>1%</td>
 
1303
  <td>Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
1304
  <td>0.214</td>
1305
  <td>0.176</td>
1306
+ <td>0.091</td>
1307
+ <td>0.146</td>
1308
  <td>0.195</td>
1309
  <td>0.180</td>
1310
  <td>[0.158, 0.202]</td>
 
1363
  <td>Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot)</td>
1364
  <td>0.206</td>
1365
  <td>0.191</td>
1366
+ <td>0.094</td>
1367
  <td>0.156</td>
1368
  <td>0.198</td>
1369
  <td>0.181</td>
1370
+ <td>[0.155, 0.208]</td>
1371
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1372
  <td>23%</td>
1373
  <td>0%</td>
 
1378
  <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1379
  <td>0.212</td>
1380
  <td>0.190</td>
1381
+ <td>0.091</td>
1382
  <td>0.155</td>
1383
  <td>0.201</td>
1384
  <td>0.183</td>
1385
+ <td>[0.158, 0.209]</td>
1386
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1387
  <td>21%</td>
1388
  <td>0%</td>
 
1393
  <td>LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news</td>
1394
  <td>0.237</td>
1395
  <td>0.167</td>
1396
+ <td>0.064</td>
1397
  <td>0.131</td>
1398
  <td>0.202</td>
1399
  <td>0.184</td>
 
1423
  <td>LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news</td>
1424
  <td>0.237</td>
1425
  <td>0.168</td>
1426
+ <td>0.064</td>
1427
  <td>0.131</td>
1428
  <td>0.203</td>
1429
  <td>0.184</td>
 
1438
  <td>Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news)</td>
1439
  <td>0.214</td>
1440
  <td>0.181</td>
1441
+ <td>0.106</td>
1442
+ <td>0.155</td>
1443
  <td>0.198</td>
1444
  <td>0.184</td>
1445
  <td>[0.161, 0.207]</td>
 
1453
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1454
  <td>0.201</td>
1455
  <td>0.221</td>
1456
+ <td>0.070</td>
1457
+ <td>0.168</td>
1458
  <td>0.211</td>
1459
+ <td>0.185</td>
1460
+ <td>[0.16, 0.209]</td>
1461
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1462
  <td>22%</td>
1463
  <td>0%</td>
 
1513
  <td>GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1514
  <td>0.229</td>
1515
  <td>0.171</td>
1516
+ <td>0.098</td>
1517
  <td>0.145</td>
1518
  <td>0.200</td>
1519
  <td>0.187</td>
 
1528
  <td>Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad)</td>
1529
  <td>0.191</td>
1530
  <td>0.220</td>
1531
+ <td>0.118</td>
1532
  <td>0.184</td>
1533
  <td>0.206</td>
1534
  <td>0.187</td>
 
1588
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news)</td>
1589
  <td>0.220</td>
1590
  <td>0.182</td>
1591
+ <td>0.118</td>
1592
  <td>0.159</td>
1593
  <td>0.201</td>
1594
  <td>0.190</td>
 
1648
  <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1649
  <td>0.251</td>
1650
  <td>0.162</td>
1651
+ <td>0.090</td>
1652
  <td>0.137</td>
1653
  <td>0.207</td>
1654
  <td>0.194</td>
1655
+ <td>[0.169, 0.219]</td>
1656
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1657
  <td>29%</td>
1658
  <td>22%</td>
 
1738
  <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1739
  <td>0.209</td>
1740
  <td>0.225</td>
1741
+ <td>0.119</td>
1742
  <td>0.187</td>
1743
  <td>0.217</td>
1744
  <td>0.198</td>
1745
+ <td>[0.173, 0.224]</td>
1746
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1747
  <td>21%</td>
1748
  <td>1%</td>
 
1772
  <td>0.151</td>
1773
  <td>0.221</td>
1774
  <td>0.200</td>
1775
+ <td>[0.174, 0.226]</td>
1776
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1777
  <td>26%</td>
1778
  <td>15%</td>
1779
  </tr>
1780
  <tr>
1781
  <td>109</td>
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1782
  <td>Mistral AI</td>
1783
  <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
1784
  <td>0.205</td>
1785
  <td>0.229</td>
1786
+ <td>0.149</td>
1787
  <td>0.201</td>
1788
  <td>0.217</td>
1789
  <td>0.203</td>
 
1792
  <td>24%</td>
1793
  <td>11%</td>
1794
  </tr>
1795
+ <tr>
1796
+ <td>110</td>
1797
+ <td>Google</td>
1798
+ <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1799
+ <td>0.220</td>
1800
+ <td>0.221</td>
1801
+ <td>0.122</td>
1802
+ <td>0.186</td>
1803
+ <td>0.220</td>
1804
+ <td>0.203</td>
1805
+ <td>[0.174, 0.232]</td>
1806
+ <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1807
+ <td>21%</td>
1808
+ <td>0%</td>
1809
+ </tr>
1810
  <tr>
1811
  <td>111</td>
1812
  <td>Qwen</td>
1813
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1814
  <td>0.225</td>
1815
  <td>0.232</td>
1816
+ <td>0.095</td>
1817
  <td>0.183</td>
1818
  <td>0.228</td>
1819
  <td>0.204</td>
1820
+ <td>[0.182, 0.226]</td>
1821
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1822
  <td>22%</td>
1823
  <td>4%</td>
 
1828
  <td>Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
1829
  <td>0.233</td>
1830
  <td>0.234</td>
1831
+ <td>0.071</td>
1832
  <td>0.176</td>
1833
  <td>0.234</td>
1834
  <td>0.205</td>
1835
+ <td>[0.177, 0.232]</td>
1836
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1837
  <td>25%</td>
1838
  <td>1%</td>
 
1858
  <td>Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
1859
  <td>0.226</td>
1860
  <td>0.234</td>
1861
+ <td>0.098</td>
1862
  <td>0.186</td>
1863
  <td>0.230</td>
1864
  <td>0.206</td>
 
1873
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1874
  <td>0.228</td>
1875
  <td>0.216</td>
1876
+ <td>0.138</td>
1877
  <td>0.188</td>
1878
  <td>0.222</td>
1879
  <td>0.208</td>
1880
+ <td>[0.182, 0.234]</td>
1881
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1882
  <td>20%</td>
1883
  <td>0%</td>
 
1919
  <td>0.233</td>
1920
  <td>0.221</td>
1921
  <td>0.127</td>
1922
+ <td>0.187</td>
1923
  <td>0.227</td>
1924
  <td>0.210</td>
1925
  <td>[0.191, 0.229]</td>
 
1951
  <td>0.102</td>
1952
  <td>0.194</td>
1953
  <td>0.238</td>
1954
+ <td>0.213</td>
1955
+ <td>[0.185, 0.241]</td>
1956
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1957
  <td>22%</td>
1958
  <td>1%</td>
 
1978
  <td>Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
1979
  <td>0.301</td>
1980
  <td>0.161</td>
1981
+ <td>0.070</td>
1982
  <td>0.129</td>
1983
  <td>0.231</td>
1984
  <td>0.215</td>
 
2023
  <td>Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
2024
  <td>0.260</td>
2025
  <td>0.230</td>
2026
+ <td>0.096</td>
2027
+ <td>0.183</td>
2028
  <td>0.245</td>
2029
  <td>0.221</td>
2030
  <td>[0.197, 0.246]</td>
 
2038
  <td>GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
2039
  <td>0.258</td>
2040
  <td>0.241</td>
2041
+ <td>0.105</td>
2042
  <td>0.192</td>
2043
  <td>0.249</td>
2044
  <td>0.225</td>
 
2053
  <td>Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
2054
  <td>0.277</td>
2055
  <td>0.215</td>
2056
+ <td>0.105</td>
2057
  <td>0.176</td>
2058
  <td>0.246</td>
2059
  <td>0.226</td>
 
2098
  <td>Always 0.5</td>
2099
  <td>0.250</td>
2100
  <td>0.250</td>
2101
+ <td>0.132</td>
2102
  <td>0.208</td>
2103
  <td>0.250</td>
2104
  <td>0.229</td>
 
2158
  <td>Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot)</td>
2159
  <td>0.233</td>
2160
  <td>0.322</td>
2161
+ <td>0.127</td>
2162
  <td>0.252</td>
2163
  <td>0.277</td>
2164
  <td>0.243</td>
 
2203
  <td>Always 0</td>
2204
  <td>0.329</td>
2205
  <td>0.286</td>
2206
+ <td>0.208</td>
2207
+ <td>0.258</td>
2208
  <td>0.308</td>
2209
+ <td>0.294</td>
2210
  <td>[0.242, 0.345]</td>
2211
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2212
  <td>41%</td>
 
2218
  <td>Random Uniform</td>
2219
  <td>0.357</td>
2220
  <td>0.302</td>
2221
+ <td>0.194</td>
2222
+ <td>0.264</td>
2223
  <td>0.329</td>
2224
  <td>0.310</td>
2225
  <td>[0.274, 0.346]</td>
 
2233
  <td>GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot)</td>
2234
  <td>0.422</td>
2235
  <td>0.256</td>
2236
+ <td>0.171</td>
2237
  <td>0.226</td>
2238
  <td>0.339</td>
2239
  <td>0.324</td>
 
2248
  <td>Always 1</td>
2249
  <td>0.671</td>
2250
  <td>0.714</td>
2251
+ <td>0.556</td>
2252
  <td>0.658</td>
2253
  <td>0.692</td>
2254
+ <td>0.664</td>
2255
  <td>[0.61, 0.719]</td>
2256
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2257
  <td>26%</td>
leaderboards/html/leaderboard_overall.html CHANGED
@@ -66,7 +66,7 @@
66
  </head>
67
  <body>
68
  <div class="container mt-4">
69
- <h1>Leaderboard: overall</h1><p class="updated-date">Updated Feb. 14, 2025</p>
70
  <div style="display: flex; align-items: center;">
71
  <a data-bs-toggle="collapse" data-bs-target="#descriptionCollapse" aria-expanded="false"
72
  aria-controls="descriptionCollapse" style="text-decoration: none; color: inherit;
@@ -178,12 +178,12 @@
178
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
179
  <td>0.172</td>
180
  <td>0.107</td>
181
- <td>0.043</td>
182
- <td>0.079</td>
183
  <td>0.139</td>
184
  <td>0.126</td>
185
  <td>[0.12, 0.132]</td>
186
- <td>0.093</td>
187
  <td>43%</td>
188
  <td>0%</td>
189
  </tr>
@@ -193,7 +193,7 @@
193
  <td>GPT-4o (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
194
  <td>0.186</td>
195
  <td>0.096</td>
196
- <td>0.033</td>
197
  <td>0.069</td>
198
  <td>0.141</td>
199
  <td>0.128</td>
@@ -209,7 +209,7 @@
209
  <td>0.162</td>
210
  <td>0.134</td>
211
  <td>0.068</td>
212
- <td>0.105</td>
213
  <td>0.148</td>
214
  <td>0.134</td>
215
  <td>[0.128, 0.139]</td>
@@ -223,7 +223,7 @@
223
  <td>GPT-4o (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
224
  <td>0.190</td>
225
  <td>0.115</td>
226
- <td>0.042</td>
227
  <td>0.084</td>
228
  <td>0.153</td>
229
  <td>0.137</td>
@@ -238,7 +238,7 @@
238
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
239
  <td>0.166</td>
240
  <td>0.138</td>
241
- <td>0.074</td>
242
  <td>0.111</td>
243
  <td>0.152</td>
244
  <td>0.139</td>
@@ -253,11 +253,11 @@
253
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
254
  <td>0.186</td>
255
  <td>0.128</td>
256
- <td>0.044</td>
257
- <td>0.092</td>
258
  <td>0.157</td>
259
  <td>0.139</td>
260
- <td>[0.132, 0.145]</td>
261
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
262
  <td>41%</td>
263
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -268,7 +268,7 @@
268
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
269
  <td>0.176</td>
270
  <td>0.141</td>
271
- <td>0.064</td>
272
  <td>0.108</td>
273
  <td>0.158</td>
274
  <td>0.142</td>
@@ -283,10 +283,10 @@
283
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
284
  <td>0.184</td>
285
  <td>0.134</td>
286
- <td>0.057</td>
287
  <td>0.101</td>
288
  <td>0.159</td>
289
- <td>0.142</td>
290
  <td>[0.136, 0.149]</td>
291
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
292
  <td>32%</td>
@@ -313,8 +313,8 @@
313
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad)</td>
314
  <td>0.172</td>
315
  <td>0.144</td>
316
- <td>0.076</td>
317
- <td>0.114</td>
318
  <td>0.158</td>
319
  <td>0.143</td>
320
  <td>[0.138, 0.149]</td>
@@ -328,8 +328,8 @@
328
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
329
  <td>0.204</td>
330
  <td>0.112</td>
331
- <td>0.045</td>
332
- <td>0.083</td>
333
  <td>0.158</td>
334
  <td>0.144</td>
335
  <td>[0.137, 0.15]</td>
@@ -343,7 +343,7 @@
343
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad)</td>
344
  <td>0.169</td>
345
  <td>0.152</td>
346
- <td>0.076</td>
347
  <td>0.120</td>
348
  <td>0.160</td>
349
  <td>0.144</td>
@@ -358,8 +358,8 @@
358
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad)</td>
359
  <td>0.162</td>
360
  <td>0.162</td>
361
- <td>0.083</td>
362
- <td>0.128</td>
363
  <td>0.162</td>
364
  <td>0.145</td>
365
  <td>[0.139, 0.151]</td>
@@ -373,11 +373,11 @@
373
  <td>GPT-4 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
374
  <td>0.194</td>
375
  <td>0.134</td>
376
- <td>0.054</td>
377
  <td>0.100</td>
378
  <td>0.164</td>
379
  <td>0.147</td>
380
- <td>[0.141, 0.153]</td>
381
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
382
  <td>36%</td>
383
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -388,8 +388,8 @@
388
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news)</td>
389
  <td>0.166</td>
390
  <td>0.156</td>
391
- <td>0.091</td>
392
- <td>0.128</td>
393
  <td>0.161</td>
394
  <td>0.147</td>
395
  <td>[0.141, 0.153]</td>
@@ -418,8 +418,8 @@
418
  <td>GPT-4o (scratchpad)</td>
419
  <td>0.186</td>
420
  <td>0.147</td>
421
- <td>0.068</td>
422
- <td>0.113</td>
423
  <td>0.167</td>
424
  <td>0.150</td>
425
  <td>[0.144, 0.156]</td>
@@ -433,11 +433,11 @@
433
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
434
  <td>0.217</td>
435
  <td>0.104</td>
436
- <td>0.055</td>
437
  <td>0.083</td>
438
  <td>0.160</td>
439
  <td>0.150</td>
440
- <td>[0.144, 0.156]</td>
441
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
442
  <td>39%</td>
443
  <td>17%</td>
@@ -448,7 +448,7 @@
448
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
449
  <td>0.211</td>
450
  <td>0.113</td>
451
- <td>0.060</td>
452
  <td>0.091</td>
453
  <td>0.162</td>
454
  <td>0.151</td>
@@ -464,7 +464,7 @@
464
  <td>0.190</td>
465
  <td>0.142</td>
466
  <td>0.075</td>
467
- <td>0.113</td>
468
  <td>0.166</td>
469
  <td>0.152</td>
470
  <td>[0.146, 0.158]</td>
@@ -478,8 +478,8 @@
478
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news)</td>
479
  <td>0.184</td>
480
  <td>0.156</td>
481
- <td>0.080</td>
482
- <td>0.123</td>
483
  <td>0.170</td>
484
  <td>0.154</td>
485
  <td>[0.148, 0.16]</td>
@@ -523,7 +523,7 @@
523
  <td>LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news</td>
524
  <td>0.242</td>
525
  <td>0.090</td>
526
- <td>0.038</td>
527
  <td>0.068</td>
528
  <td>0.166</td>
529
  <td>0.155</td>
@@ -538,8 +538,8 @@
538
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
539
  <td>0.201</td>
540
  <td>0.144</td>
541
- <td>0.067</td>
542
- <td>0.111</td>
543
  <td>0.172</td>
544
  <td>0.156</td>
545
  <td>[0.15, 0.162]</td>
@@ -554,7 +554,7 @@
554
  <td>0.199</td>
555
  <td>0.146</td>
556
  <td>0.072</td>
557
- <td>0.114</td>
558
  <td>0.173</td>
559
  <td>0.157</td>
560
  <td>[0.151, 0.162]</td>
@@ -568,11 +568,11 @@
568
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot)</td>
569
  <td>0.217</td>
570
  <td>0.107</td>
571
- <td>0.081</td>
572
- <td>0.096</td>
573
  <td>0.162</td>
574
  <td>0.157</td>
575
- <td>[0.15, 0.163]</td>
576
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
577
  <td>37%</td>
578
  <td>17%</td>
@@ -583,13 +583,13 @@
583
  <td>LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news</td>
584
  <td>0.243</td>
585
  <td>0.094</td>
586
- <td>0.039</td>
587
  <td>0.071</td>
588
  <td>0.169</td>
589
  <td>0.157</td>
590
  <td>[0.153, 0.161]</td>
591
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
592
- <td>38%</td>
593
  <td>78%</td>
594
  </tr>
595
  <tr>
@@ -613,10 +613,10 @@
613
  <td>GPT-4 (scratchpad)</td>
614
  <td>0.194</td>
615
  <td>0.156</td>
616
- <td>0.073</td>
617
  <td>0.121</td>
618
  <td>0.175</td>
619
- <td>0.157</td>
620
  <td>[0.153, 0.162]</td>
621
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
622
  <td>28%</td>
@@ -629,7 +629,7 @@
629
  <td>0.215</td>
630
  <td>0.136</td>
631
  <td>0.053</td>
632
- <td>0.100</td>
633
  <td>0.175</td>
634
  <td>0.158</td>
635
  <td>[0.151, 0.164]</td>
@@ -643,13 +643,13 @@
643
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
644
  <td>0.186</td>
645
  <td>0.164</td>
646
- <td>0.087</td>
647
  <td>0.131</td>
648
  <td>0.175</td>
649
  <td>0.159</td>
650
  <td>[0.153, 0.165]</td>
651
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
652
- <td>32%</td>
653
  <td>0%</td>
654
  </tr>
655
  <tr>
@@ -658,7 +658,7 @@
658
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
659
  <td>0.190</td>
660
  <td>0.164</td>
661
- <td>0.082</td>
662
  <td>0.129</td>
663
  <td>0.177</td>
664
  <td>0.159</td>
@@ -673,8 +673,8 @@
673
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot)</td>
674
  <td>0.204</td>
675
  <td>0.142</td>
676
- <td>0.082</td>
677
- <td>0.116</td>
678
  <td>0.173</td>
679
  <td>0.160</td>
680
  <td>[0.154, 0.167]</td>
@@ -688,11 +688,11 @@
688
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
689
  <td>0.194</td>
690
  <td>0.161</td>
691
- <td>0.082</td>
692
- <td>0.127</td>
693
  <td>0.177</td>
694
- <td>0.160</td>
695
- <td>[0.153, 0.168]</td>
696
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
697
  <td>32%</td>
698
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -703,7 +703,7 @@
703
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot)</td>
704
  <td>0.186</td>
705
  <td>0.168</td>
706
- <td>0.093</td>
707
  <td>0.136</td>
708
  <td>0.177</td>
709
  <td>0.161</td>
@@ -718,7 +718,7 @@
718
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
719
  <td>0.208</td>
720
  <td>0.144</td>
721
- <td>0.079</td>
722
  <td>0.116</td>
723
  <td>0.176</td>
724
  <td>0.162</td>
@@ -793,8 +793,8 @@
793
  <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
794
  <td>0.208</td>
795
  <td>0.162</td>
796
- <td>0.067</td>
797
- <td>0.121</td>
798
  <td>0.185</td>
799
  <td>0.165</td>
800
  <td>[0.157, 0.172]</td>
@@ -823,7 +823,7 @@
823
  <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
824
  <td>0.210</td>
825
  <td>0.148</td>
826
- <td>0.083</td>
827
  <td>0.121</td>
828
  <td>0.179</td>
829
  <td>0.165</td>
@@ -838,7 +838,7 @@
838
  <td>GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
839
  <td>0.211</td>
840
  <td>0.159</td>
841
- <td>0.077</td>
842
  <td>0.124</td>
843
  <td>0.185</td>
844
  <td>0.168</td>
@@ -868,11 +868,11 @@
868
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad)</td>
869
  <td>0.194</td>
870
  <td>0.179</td>
871
- <td>0.101</td>
872
  <td>0.146</td>
873
  <td>0.186</td>
874
  <td>0.170</td>
875
- <td>[0.163, 0.176]</td>
876
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
877
  <td>28%</td>
878
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -883,10 +883,10 @@
883
  <td>GPT-4o (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
884
  <td>0.225</td>
885
  <td>0.146</td>
886
- <td>0.075</td>
887
  <td>0.116</td>
888
  <td>0.186</td>
889
- <td>0.170</td>
890
  <td>[0.163, 0.178]</td>
891
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
892
  <td>37%</td>
@@ -898,7 +898,7 @@
898
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad)</td>
899
  <td>0.201</td>
900
  <td>0.178</td>
901
- <td>0.091</td>
902
  <td>0.141</td>
903
  <td>0.190</td>
904
  <td>0.171</td>
@@ -913,11 +913,11 @@
913
  <td>GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
914
  <td>0.216</td>
915
  <td>0.149</td>
916
- <td>0.098</td>
917
- <td>0.127</td>
918
  <td>0.183</td>
919
  <td>0.172</td>
920
- <td>[0.164, 0.179]</td>
921
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
922
  <td>32%</td>
923
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -943,7 +943,7 @@
943
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
944
  <td>0.227</td>
945
  <td>0.156</td>
946
- <td>0.067</td>
947
  <td>0.118</td>
948
  <td>0.191</td>
949
  <td>0.172</td>
@@ -973,11 +973,11 @@
973
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
974
  <td>0.218</td>
975
  <td>0.161</td>
976
- <td>0.084</td>
977
  <td>0.128</td>
978
  <td>0.189</td>
979
  <td>0.173</td>
980
- <td>[0.167, 0.179]</td>
981
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
982
  <td>29%</td>
983
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -994,7 +994,7 @@
994
  <td>0.173</td>
995
  <td>[0.167, 0.18]</td>
996
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
997
- <td>36%</td>
998
  <td>17%</td>
999
  </tr>
1000
  <tr>
@@ -1003,10 +1003,10 @@
1003
  <td>GPT-4o (zero shot)</td>
1004
  <td>0.225</td>
1005
  <td>0.163</td>
1006
- <td>0.067</td>
1007
  <td>0.122</td>
1008
  <td>0.194</td>
1009
- <td>0.173</td>
1010
  <td>[0.167, 0.18]</td>
1011
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1012
  <td>31%</td>
@@ -1019,7 +1019,7 @@
1019
  <td>0.199</td>
1020
  <td>0.188</td>
1021
  <td>0.098</td>
1022
- <td>0.149</td>
1023
  <td>0.194</td>
1024
  <td>0.174</td>
1025
  <td>[0.169, 0.18]</td>
@@ -1048,11 +1048,11 @@
1048
  <td>Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
1049
  <td>0.221</td>
1050
  <td>0.142</td>
1051
- <td>0.110</td>
1052
  <td>0.129</td>
1053
  <td>0.182</td>
1054
  <td>0.175</td>
1055
- <td>[0.167, 0.183]</td>
1056
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1057
  <td>43%</td>
1058
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -1063,7 +1063,7 @@
1063
  <td>GPT-4o (scratchpad with SECOND news)</td>
1064
  <td>0.236</td>
1065
  <td>0.143</td>
1066
- <td>0.075</td>
1067
  <td>0.114</td>
1068
  <td>0.190</td>
1069
  <td>0.175</td>
@@ -1078,11 +1078,11 @@
1078
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with SECOND news)</td>
1079
  <td>0.222</td>
1080
  <td>0.167</td>
1081
- <td>0.084</td>
1082
  <td>0.132</td>
1083
  <td>0.194</td>
1084
  <td>0.177</td>
1085
- <td>[0.171, 0.182]</td>
1086
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1087
  <td>28%</td>
1088
  <td>1%</td>
@@ -1108,7 +1108,7 @@
1108
  <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad)</td>
1109
  <td>0.210</td>
1110
  <td>0.186</td>
1111
- <td>0.093</td>
1112
  <td>0.146</td>
1113
  <td>0.198</td>
1114
  <td>0.178</td>
@@ -1124,10 +1124,10 @@
1124
  <td>0.214</td>
1125
  <td>0.190</td>
1126
  <td>0.093</td>
1127
- <td>0.148</td>
1128
  <td>0.202</td>
1129
  <td>0.181</td>
1130
- <td>[0.173, 0.189]</td>
1131
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1132
  <td>29%</td>
1133
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -1153,8 +1153,8 @@
1153
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1154
  <td>0.216</td>
1155
  <td>0.184</td>
1156
- <td>0.098</td>
1157
- <td>0.147</td>
1158
  <td>0.200</td>
1159
  <td>0.182</td>
1160
  <td>[0.175, 0.188]</td>
@@ -1169,7 +1169,7 @@
1169
  <td>0.212</td>
1170
  <td>0.191</td>
1171
  <td>0.099</td>
1172
- <td>0.151</td>
1173
  <td>0.202</td>
1174
  <td>0.182</td>
1175
  <td>[0.175, 0.189]</td>
@@ -1198,11 +1198,11 @@
1198
  <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot)</td>
1199
  <td>0.214</td>
1200
  <td>0.179</td>
1201
- <td>0.113</td>
1202
  <td>0.151</td>
1203
  <td>0.197</td>
1204
- <td>0.182</td>
1205
- <td>[0.175, 0.189]</td>
1206
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1207
  <td>27%</td>
1208
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -1228,7 +1228,7 @@
1228
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1229
  <td>0.219</td>
1230
  <td>0.182</td>
1231
- <td>0.100</td>
1232
  <td>0.147</td>
1233
  <td>0.201</td>
1234
  <td>0.183</td>
@@ -1247,7 +1247,7 @@
1247
  <td>0.145</td>
1248
  <td>0.206</td>
1249
  <td>0.184</td>
1250
- <td>[0.178, 0.189]</td>
1251
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1252
  <td>26%</td>
1253
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -1277,7 +1277,7 @@
1277
  <td>0.148</td>
1278
  <td>0.205</td>
1279
  <td>0.184</td>
1280
- <td>[0.179, 0.189]</td>
1281
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1282
  <td>23%</td>
1283
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -1292,7 +1292,7 @@
1292
  <td>0.165</td>
1293
  <td>0.202</td>
1294
  <td>0.186</td>
1295
- <td>[0.179, 0.193]</td>
1296
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1297
  <td>27%</td>
1298
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -1303,13 +1303,13 @@
1303
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot)</td>
1304
  <td>0.227</td>
1305
  <td>0.182</td>
1306
- <td>0.099</td>
1307
  <td>0.147</td>
1308
  <td>0.204</td>
1309
  <td>0.187</td>
1310
- <td>[0.18, 0.193]</td>
1311
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1312
- <td>28%</td>
1313
  <td>1%</td>
1314
  </tr>
1315
  <tr>
@@ -1318,7 +1318,7 @@
1318
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news)</td>
1319
  <td>0.224</td>
1320
  <td>0.185</td>
1321
- <td>0.107</td>
1322
  <td>0.152</td>
1323
  <td>0.204</td>
1324
  <td>0.188</td>
@@ -1349,7 +1349,7 @@
1349
  <td>0.246</td>
1350
  <td>0.146</td>
1351
  <td>0.110</td>
1352
- <td>0.130</td>
1353
  <td>0.196</td>
1354
  <td>0.188</td>
1355
  <td>[0.182, 0.195]</td>
@@ -1363,7 +1363,7 @@
1363
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news)</td>
1364
  <td>0.222</td>
1365
  <td>0.198</td>
1366
- <td>0.101</td>
1367
  <td>0.157</td>
1368
  <td>0.210</td>
1369
  <td>0.189</td>
@@ -1393,10 +1393,10 @@
1393
  <td>Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot)</td>
1394
  <td>0.221</td>
1395
  <td>0.180</td>
1396
- <td>0.127</td>
1397
- <td>0.157</td>
1398
  <td>0.201</td>
1399
- <td>0.189</td>
1400
  <td>[0.181, 0.198]</td>
1401
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1402
  <td>41%</td>
@@ -1408,8 +1408,8 @@
1408
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1409
  <td>0.224</td>
1410
  <td>0.192</td>
1411
- <td>0.108</td>
1412
- <td>0.156</td>
1413
  <td>0.208</td>
1414
  <td>0.190</td>
1415
  <td>[0.184, 0.197]</td>
@@ -1438,7 +1438,7 @@
1438
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1439
  <td>0.224</td>
1440
  <td>0.201</td>
1441
- <td>0.102</td>
1442
  <td>0.159</td>
1443
  <td>0.212</td>
1444
  <td>0.191</td>
@@ -1453,7 +1453,7 @@
1453
  <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news)</td>
1454
  <td>0.233</td>
1455
  <td>0.195</td>
1456
- <td>0.094</td>
1457
  <td>0.152</td>
1458
  <td>0.214</td>
1459
  <td>0.193</td>
@@ -1489,7 +1489,7 @@
1489
  <td>0.196</td>
1490
  <td>[0.188, 0.203]</td>
1491
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1492
- <td>29%</td>
1493
  <td>0%</td>
1494
  </tr>
1495
  <tr>
@@ -1502,7 +1502,7 @@
1502
  <td>0.142</td>
1503
  <td>0.212</td>
1504
  <td>0.196</td>
1505
- <td>[0.189, 0.202]</td>
1506
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1507
  <td>28%</td>
1508
  <td>11%</td>
@@ -1519,7 +1519,7 @@
1519
  <td>0.196</td>
1520
  <td>[0.189, 0.203]</td>
1521
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1522
- <td>29%</td>
1523
  <td>10%</td>
1524
  </tr>
1525
  <tr>
@@ -1532,7 +1532,7 @@
1532
  <td>0.128</td>
1533
  <td>0.210</td>
1534
  <td>0.197</td>
1535
- <td>[0.188, 0.205]</td>
1536
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1537
  <td>38%</td>
1538
  <td>0%</td>
@@ -1544,7 +1544,7 @@
1544
  <td>0.232</td>
1545
  <td>0.207</td>
1546
  <td>0.104</td>
1547
- <td>0.162</td>
1548
  <td>0.219</td>
1549
  <td>0.197</td>
1550
  <td>[0.191, 0.203]</td>
@@ -1574,7 +1574,7 @@
1574
  <td>0.246</td>
1575
  <td>0.197</td>
1576
  <td>0.100</td>
1577
- <td>0.155</td>
1578
  <td>0.221</td>
1579
  <td>0.201</td>
1580
  <td>[0.192, 0.209]</td>
@@ -1591,8 +1591,8 @@
1591
  <td>0.142</td>
1592
  <td>0.173</td>
1593
  <td>0.214</td>
1594
- <td>0.202</td>
1595
- <td>[0.195, 0.21]</td>
1596
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1597
  <td>31%</td>
1598
  <td>1%</td>
@@ -1633,7 +1633,7 @@
1633
  <td>Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1634
  <td>0.268</td>
1635
  <td>0.180</td>
1636
- <td>0.086</td>
1637
  <td>0.140</td>
1638
  <td>0.224</td>
1639
  <td>0.204</td>
@@ -1678,7 +1678,7 @@
1678
  <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1679
  <td>0.248</td>
1680
  <td>0.208</td>
1681
- <td>0.105</td>
1682
  <td>0.164</td>
1683
  <td>0.228</td>
1684
  <td>0.206</td>
@@ -1693,7 +1693,7 @@
1693
  <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
1694
  <td>0.254</td>
1695
  <td>0.209</td>
1696
- <td>0.101</td>
1697
  <td>0.163</td>
1698
  <td>0.231</td>
1699
  <td>0.208</td>
@@ -1726,7 +1726,7 @@
1726
  <td>0.112</td>
1727
  <td>0.171</td>
1728
  <td>0.235</td>
1729
- <td>0.212</td>
1730
  <td>[0.207, 0.218]</td>
1731
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1732
  <td>22%</td>
@@ -1768,7 +1768,7 @@
1768
  <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news)</td>
1769
  <td>0.288</td>
1770
  <td>0.178</td>
1771
- <td>0.103</td>
1772
  <td>0.146</td>
1773
  <td>0.233</td>
1774
  <td>0.217</td>
@@ -1798,7 +1798,7 @@
1798
  <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1799
  <td>0.301</td>
1800
  <td>0.165</td>
1801
- <td>0.095</td>
1802
  <td>0.135</td>
1803
  <td>0.233</td>
1804
  <td>0.218</td>
@@ -1828,11 +1828,11 @@
1828
  <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot)</td>
1829
  <td>0.266</td>
1830
  <td>0.206</td>
1831
- <td>0.123</td>
1832
  <td>0.171</td>
1833
  <td>0.236</td>
1834
  <td>0.218</td>
1835
- <td>[0.209, 0.227]</td>
1836
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1837
  <td>33%</td>
1838
  <td>1%</td>
@@ -1843,7 +1843,7 @@
1843
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1844
  <td>0.247</td>
1845
  <td>0.234</td>
1846
- <td>0.141</td>
1847
  <td>0.194</td>
1848
  <td>0.240</td>
1849
  <td>0.221</td>
@@ -1874,7 +1874,7 @@
1874
  <td>0.278</td>
1875
  <td>0.211</td>
1876
  <td>0.103</td>
1877
- <td>0.164</td>
1878
  <td>0.244</td>
1879
  <td>0.221</td>
1880
  <td>[0.215, 0.228]</td>
@@ -1922,7 +1922,7 @@
1922
  <td>0.177</td>
1923
  <td>0.248</td>
1924
  <td>0.223</td>
1925
- <td>[0.217, 0.229]</td>
1926
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1927
  <td>22%</td>
1928
  <td>5%</td>
@@ -1948,7 +1948,7 @@
1948
  <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1949
  <td>0.296</td>
1950
  <td>0.186</td>
1951
- <td>0.119</td>
1952
  <td>0.158</td>
1953
  <td>0.241</td>
1954
  <td>0.227</td>
@@ -1963,10 +1963,10 @@
1963
  <td>Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
1964
  <td>0.277</td>
1965
  <td>0.231</td>
1966
- <td>0.116</td>
1967
  <td>0.182</td>
1968
  <td>0.254</td>
1969
- <td>0.229</td>
1970
  <td>[0.224, 0.235]</td>
1971
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1972
  <td>20%</td>
@@ -1974,27 +1974,12 @@
1974
  </tr>
1975
  <tr>
1976
  <td>122</td>
1977
- <td>ForecastBench</td>
1978
- <td>Always 0</td>
1979
- <td>0.266</td>
1980
- <td>0.203</td>
1981
- <td>0.199</td>
1982
- <td>0.201</td>
1983
- <td>0.234</td>
1984
- <td>0.233</td>
1985
- <td>[0.22, 0.246]</td>
1986
- <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1987
- <td>66%</td>
1988
- <td>0%</td>
1989
- </tr>
1990
- <tr>
1991
- <td>123</td>
1992
  <td>Anthropic</td>
1993
  <td>Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot)</td>
1994
  <td>0.278</td>
1995
  <td>0.239</td>
1996
  <td>0.121</td>
1997
- <td>0.188</td>
1998
  <td>0.259</td>
1999
  <td>0.233</td>
2000
  <td>[0.228, 0.239]</td>
@@ -2002,6 +1987,21 @@
2002
  <td>24%</td>
2003
  <td>1%</td>
2004
  </tr>
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2005
  <tr>
2006
  <td>124</td>
2007
  <td>Anthropic</td>
@@ -2012,7 +2012,7 @@
2012
  <td>0.201</td>
2013
  <td>0.265</td>
2014
  <td>0.234</td>
2015
- <td>[0.228, 0.24]</td>
2016
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2017
  <td>22%</td>
2018
  <td>6%</td>
@@ -2042,7 +2042,7 @@
2042
  <td>0.205</td>
2043
  <td>0.270</td>
2044
  <td>0.241</td>
2045
- <td>[0.235, 0.246]</td>
2046
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2047
  <td>20%</td>
2048
  <td>1%</td>
@@ -2083,10 +2083,10 @@
2083
  <td>Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news)</td>
2084
  <td>0.308</td>
2085
  <td>0.265</td>
2086
- <td>0.125</td>
2087
  <td>0.205</td>
2088
  <td>0.286</td>
2089
- <td>0.256</td>
2090
  <td>[0.251, 0.262]</td>
2091
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2092
  <td>20%</td>
@@ -2129,7 +2129,7 @@
2129
  <td>0.307</td>
2130
  <td>0.286</td>
2131
  <td>0.151</td>
2132
- <td>0.228</td>
2133
  <td>0.296</td>
2134
  <td>0.268</td>
2135
  <td>[0.258, 0.277]</td>
@@ -2143,7 +2143,7 @@
2143
  <td>Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
2144
  <td>0.300</td>
2145
  <td>0.324</td>
2146
- <td>0.149</td>
2147
  <td>0.249</td>
2148
  <td>0.312</td>
2149
  <td>0.275</td>
@@ -2203,7 +2203,7 @@
2203
  <td>GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot)</td>
2204
  <td>0.446</td>
2205
  <td>0.340</td>
2206
- <td>0.213</td>
2207
  <td>0.286</td>
2208
  <td>0.393</td>
2209
  <td>0.366</td>
@@ -2222,7 +2222,7 @@
2222
  <td>0.683</td>
2223
  <td>0.766</td>
2224
  <td>0.709</td>
2225
- <td>[0.694, 0.723]</td>
2226
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2227
  <td>22%</td>
2228
  <td>0%</td>
 
66
  </head>
67
  <body>
68
  <div class="container mt-4">
69
+ <h1>Leaderboard: overall</h1><p class="updated-date">Updated Feb. 16, 2025</p>
70
  <div style="display: flex; align-items: center;">
71
  <a data-bs-toggle="collapse" data-bs-target="#descriptionCollapse" aria-expanded="false"
72
  aria-controls="descriptionCollapse" style="text-decoration: none; color: inherit;
 
178
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
179
  <td>0.172</td>
180
  <td>0.107</td>
181
+ <td>0.044</td>
182
+ <td>0.080</td>
183
  <td>0.139</td>
184
  <td>0.126</td>
185
  <td>[0.12, 0.132]</td>
186
+ <td>0.097</td>
187
  <td>43%</td>
188
  <td>0%</td>
189
  </tr>
 
193
  <td>GPT-4o (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
194
  <td>0.186</td>
195
  <td>0.096</td>
196
+ <td>0.034</td>
197
  <td>0.069</td>
198
  <td>0.141</td>
199
  <td>0.128</td>
 
209
  <td>0.162</td>
210
  <td>0.134</td>
211
  <td>0.068</td>
212
+ <td>0.106</td>
213
  <td>0.148</td>
214
  <td>0.134</td>
215
  <td>[0.128, 0.139]</td>
 
223
  <td>GPT-4o (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
224
  <td>0.190</td>
225
  <td>0.115</td>
226
+ <td>0.043</td>
227
  <td>0.084</td>
228
  <td>0.153</td>
229
  <td>0.137</td>
 
238
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
239
  <td>0.166</td>
240
  <td>0.138</td>
241
+ <td>0.075</td>
242
  <td>0.111</td>
243
  <td>0.152</td>
244
  <td>0.139</td>
 
253
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
254
  <td>0.186</td>
255
  <td>0.128</td>
256
+ <td>0.045</td>
257
+ <td>0.093</td>
258
  <td>0.157</td>
259
  <td>0.139</td>
260
+ <td>[0.133, 0.146]</td>
261
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
262
  <td>41%</td>
263
  <td>0%</td>
 
268
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
269
  <td>0.176</td>
270
  <td>0.141</td>
271
+ <td>0.065</td>
272
  <td>0.108</td>
273
  <td>0.158</td>
274
  <td>0.142</td>
 
283
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
284
  <td>0.184</td>
285
  <td>0.134</td>
286
+ <td>0.058</td>
287
  <td>0.101</td>
288
  <td>0.159</td>
289
+ <td>0.143</td>
290
  <td>[0.136, 0.149]</td>
291
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
292
  <td>32%</td>
 
313
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad)</td>
314
  <td>0.172</td>
315
  <td>0.144</td>
316
+ <td>0.077</td>
317
+ <td>0.115</td>
318
  <td>0.158</td>
319
  <td>0.143</td>
320
  <td>[0.138, 0.149]</td>
 
328
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
329
  <td>0.204</td>
330
  <td>0.112</td>
331
+ <td>0.046</td>
332
+ <td>0.084</td>
333
  <td>0.158</td>
334
  <td>0.144</td>
335
  <td>[0.137, 0.15]</td>
 
343
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad)</td>
344
  <td>0.169</td>
345
  <td>0.152</td>
346
+ <td>0.077</td>
347
  <td>0.120</td>
348
  <td>0.160</td>
349
  <td>0.144</td>
 
358
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad)</td>
359
  <td>0.162</td>
360
  <td>0.162</td>
361
+ <td>0.084</td>
362
+ <td>0.129</td>
363
  <td>0.162</td>
364
  <td>0.145</td>
365
  <td>[0.139, 0.151]</td>
 
373
  <td>GPT-4 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
374
  <td>0.194</td>
375
  <td>0.134</td>
376
+ <td>0.055</td>
377
  <td>0.100</td>
378
  <td>0.164</td>
379
  <td>0.147</td>
380
+ <td>[0.141, 0.154]</td>
381
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
382
  <td>36%</td>
383
  <td>0%</td>
 
388
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news)</td>
389
  <td>0.166</td>
390
  <td>0.156</td>
391
+ <td>0.092</td>
392
+ <td>0.129</td>
393
  <td>0.161</td>
394
  <td>0.147</td>
395
  <td>[0.141, 0.153]</td>
 
418
  <td>GPT-4o (scratchpad)</td>
419
  <td>0.186</td>
420
  <td>0.147</td>
421
+ <td>0.069</td>
422
+ <td>0.114</td>
423
  <td>0.167</td>
424
  <td>0.150</td>
425
  <td>[0.144, 0.156]</td>
 
433
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
434
  <td>0.217</td>
435
  <td>0.104</td>
436
+ <td>0.056</td>
437
  <td>0.083</td>
438
  <td>0.160</td>
439
  <td>0.150</td>
440
+ <td>[0.144, 0.157]</td>
441
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
442
  <td>39%</td>
443
  <td>17%</td>
 
448
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
449
  <td>0.211</td>
450
  <td>0.113</td>
451
+ <td>0.061</td>
452
  <td>0.091</td>
453
  <td>0.162</td>
454
  <td>0.151</td>
 
464
  <td>0.190</td>
465
  <td>0.142</td>
466
  <td>0.075</td>
467
+ <td>0.114</td>
468
  <td>0.166</td>
469
  <td>0.152</td>
470
  <td>[0.146, 0.158]</td>
 
478
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news)</td>
479
  <td>0.184</td>
480
  <td>0.156</td>
481
+ <td>0.081</td>
482
+ <td>0.124</td>
483
  <td>0.170</td>
484
  <td>0.154</td>
485
  <td>[0.148, 0.16]</td>
 
523
  <td>LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news</td>
524
  <td>0.242</td>
525
  <td>0.090</td>
526
+ <td>0.039</td>
527
  <td>0.068</td>
528
  <td>0.166</td>
529
  <td>0.155</td>
 
538
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
539
  <td>0.201</td>
540
  <td>0.144</td>
541
+ <td>0.068</td>
542
+ <td>0.112</td>
543
  <td>0.172</td>
544
  <td>0.156</td>
545
  <td>[0.15, 0.162]</td>
 
554
  <td>0.199</td>
555
  <td>0.146</td>
556
  <td>0.072</td>
557
+ <td>0.115</td>
558
  <td>0.173</td>
559
  <td>0.157</td>
560
  <td>[0.151, 0.162]</td>
 
568
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot)</td>
569
  <td>0.217</td>
570
  <td>0.107</td>
571
+ <td>0.082</td>
572
+ <td>0.097</td>
573
  <td>0.162</td>
574
  <td>0.157</td>
575
+ <td>[0.151, 0.163]</td>
576
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
577
  <td>37%</td>
578
  <td>17%</td>
 
583
  <td>LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news</td>
584
  <td>0.243</td>
585
  <td>0.094</td>
586
+ <td>0.040</td>
587
  <td>0.071</td>
588
  <td>0.169</td>
589
  <td>0.157</td>
590
  <td>[0.153, 0.161]</td>
591
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
592
+ <td>37%</td>
593
  <td>78%</td>
594
  </tr>
595
  <tr>
 
613
  <td>GPT-4 (scratchpad)</td>
614
  <td>0.194</td>
615
  <td>0.156</td>
616
+ <td>0.074</td>
617
  <td>0.121</td>
618
  <td>0.175</td>
619
+ <td>0.158</td>
620
  <td>[0.153, 0.162]</td>
621
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
622
  <td>28%</td>
 
629
  <td>0.215</td>
630
  <td>0.136</td>
631
  <td>0.053</td>
632
+ <td>0.101</td>
633
  <td>0.175</td>
634
  <td>0.158</td>
635
  <td>[0.151, 0.164]</td>
 
643
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
644
  <td>0.186</td>
645
  <td>0.164</td>
646
+ <td>0.088</td>
647
  <td>0.131</td>
648
  <td>0.175</td>
649
  <td>0.159</td>
650
  <td>[0.153, 0.165]</td>
651
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
652
+ <td>31%</td>
653
  <td>0%</td>
654
  </tr>
655
  <tr>
 
658
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
659
  <td>0.190</td>
660
  <td>0.164</td>
661
+ <td>0.083</td>
662
  <td>0.129</td>
663
  <td>0.177</td>
664
  <td>0.159</td>
 
673
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot)</td>
674
  <td>0.204</td>
675
  <td>0.142</td>
676
+ <td>0.083</td>
677
+ <td>0.117</td>
678
  <td>0.173</td>
679
  <td>0.160</td>
680
  <td>[0.154, 0.167]</td>
 
688
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
689
  <td>0.194</td>
690
  <td>0.161</td>
691
+ <td>0.083</td>
692
+ <td>0.128</td>
693
  <td>0.177</td>
694
+ <td>0.161</td>
695
+ <td>[0.154, 0.168]</td>
696
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
697
  <td>32%</td>
698
  <td>0%</td>
 
703
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot)</td>
704
  <td>0.186</td>
705
  <td>0.168</td>
706
+ <td>0.094</td>
707
  <td>0.136</td>
708
  <td>0.177</td>
709
  <td>0.161</td>
 
718
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
719
  <td>0.208</td>
720
  <td>0.144</td>
721
+ <td>0.080</td>
722
  <td>0.116</td>
723
  <td>0.176</td>
724
  <td>0.162</td>
 
793
  <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
794
  <td>0.208</td>
795
  <td>0.162</td>
796
+ <td>0.068</td>
797
+ <td>0.122</td>
798
  <td>0.185</td>
799
  <td>0.165</td>
800
  <td>[0.157, 0.172]</td>
 
823
  <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
824
  <td>0.210</td>
825
  <td>0.148</td>
826
+ <td>0.084</td>
827
  <td>0.121</td>
828
  <td>0.179</td>
829
  <td>0.165</td>
 
838
  <td>GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
839
  <td>0.211</td>
840
  <td>0.159</td>
841
+ <td>0.078</td>
842
  <td>0.124</td>
843
  <td>0.185</td>
844
  <td>0.168</td>
 
868
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad)</td>
869
  <td>0.194</td>
870
  <td>0.179</td>
871
+ <td>0.102</td>
872
  <td>0.146</td>
873
  <td>0.186</td>
874
  <td>0.170</td>
875
+ <td>[0.164, 0.176]</td>
876
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
877
  <td>28%</td>
878
  <td>0%</td>
 
883
  <td>GPT-4o (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
884
  <td>0.225</td>
885
  <td>0.146</td>
886
+ <td>0.076</td>
887
  <td>0.116</td>
888
  <td>0.186</td>
889
+ <td>0.171</td>
890
  <td>[0.163, 0.178]</td>
891
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
892
  <td>37%</td>
 
898
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad)</td>
899
  <td>0.201</td>
900
  <td>0.178</td>
901
+ <td>0.092</td>
902
  <td>0.141</td>
903
  <td>0.190</td>
904
  <td>0.171</td>
 
913
  <td>GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
914
  <td>0.216</td>
915
  <td>0.149</td>
916
+ <td>0.099</td>
917
+ <td>0.128</td>
918
  <td>0.183</td>
919
  <td>0.172</td>
920
+ <td>[0.165, 0.179]</td>
921
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
922
  <td>32%</td>
923
  <td>0%</td>
 
943
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
944
  <td>0.227</td>
945
  <td>0.156</td>
946
+ <td>0.068</td>
947
  <td>0.118</td>
948
  <td>0.191</td>
949
  <td>0.172</td>
 
973
  <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
974
  <td>0.218</td>
975
  <td>0.161</td>
976
+ <td>0.085</td>
977
  <td>0.128</td>
978
  <td>0.189</td>
979
  <td>0.173</td>
980
+ <td>[0.167, 0.18]</td>
981
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
982
  <td>29%</td>
983
  <td>0%</td>
 
994
  <td>0.173</td>
995
  <td>[0.167, 0.18]</td>
996
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
997
+ <td>37%</td>
998
  <td>17%</td>
999
  </tr>
1000
  <tr>
 
1003
  <td>GPT-4o (zero shot)</td>
1004
  <td>0.225</td>
1005
  <td>0.163</td>
1006
+ <td>0.068</td>
1007
  <td>0.122</td>
1008
  <td>0.194</td>
1009
+ <td>0.174</td>
1010
  <td>[0.167, 0.18]</td>
1011
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1012
  <td>31%</td>
 
1019
  <td>0.199</td>
1020
  <td>0.188</td>
1021
  <td>0.098</td>
1022
+ <td>0.150</td>
1023
  <td>0.194</td>
1024
  <td>0.174</td>
1025
  <td>[0.169, 0.18]</td>
 
1048
  <td>Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
1049
  <td>0.221</td>
1050
  <td>0.142</td>
1051
+ <td>0.111</td>
1052
  <td>0.129</td>
1053
  <td>0.182</td>
1054
  <td>0.175</td>
1055
+ <td>[0.168, 0.183]</td>
1056
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1057
  <td>43%</td>
1058
  <td>0%</td>
 
1063
  <td>GPT-4o (scratchpad with SECOND news)</td>
1064
  <td>0.236</td>
1065
  <td>0.143</td>
1066
+ <td>0.076</td>
1067
  <td>0.114</td>
1068
  <td>0.190</td>
1069
  <td>0.175</td>
 
1078
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with SECOND news)</td>
1079
  <td>0.222</td>
1080
  <td>0.167</td>
1081
+ <td>0.085</td>
1082
  <td>0.132</td>
1083
  <td>0.194</td>
1084
  <td>0.177</td>
1085
+ <td>[0.171, 0.183]</td>
1086
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1087
  <td>28%</td>
1088
  <td>1%</td>
 
1108
  <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad)</td>
1109
  <td>0.210</td>
1110
  <td>0.186</td>
1111
+ <td>0.094</td>
1112
  <td>0.146</td>
1113
  <td>0.198</td>
1114
  <td>0.178</td>
 
1124
  <td>0.214</td>
1125
  <td>0.190</td>
1126
  <td>0.093</td>
1127
+ <td>0.149</td>
1128
  <td>0.202</td>
1129
  <td>0.181</td>
1130
+ <td>[0.173, 0.19]</td>
1131
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1132
  <td>29%</td>
1133
  <td>0%</td>
 
1153
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1154
  <td>0.216</td>
1155
  <td>0.184</td>
1156
+ <td>0.099</td>
1157
+ <td>0.148</td>
1158
  <td>0.200</td>
1159
  <td>0.182</td>
1160
  <td>[0.175, 0.188]</td>
 
1169
  <td>0.212</td>
1170
  <td>0.191</td>
1171
  <td>0.099</td>
1172
+ <td>0.152</td>
1173
  <td>0.202</td>
1174
  <td>0.182</td>
1175
  <td>[0.175, 0.189]</td>
 
1198
  <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot)</td>
1199
  <td>0.214</td>
1200
  <td>0.179</td>
1201
+ <td>0.114</td>
1202
  <td>0.151</td>
1203
  <td>0.197</td>
1204
+ <td>0.183</td>
1205
+ <td>[0.176, 0.19]</td>
1206
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1207
  <td>27%</td>
1208
  <td>0%</td>
 
1228
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1229
  <td>0.219</td>
1230
  <td>0.182</td>
1231
+ <td>0.101</td>
1232
  <td>0.147</td>
1233
  <td>0.201</td>
1234
  <td>0.183</td>
 
1247
  <td>0.145</td>
1248
  <td>0.206</td>
1249
  <td>0.184</td>
1250
+ <td>[0.178, 0.19]</td>
1251
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1252
  <td>26%</td>
1253
  <td>0%</td>
 
1277
  <td>0.148</td>
1278
  <td>0.205</td>
1279
  <td>0.184</td>
1280
+ <td>[0.18, 0.189]</td>
1281
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1282
  <td>23%</td>
1283
  <td>0%</td>
 
1292
  <td>0.165</td>
1293
  <td>0.202</td>
1294
  <td>0.186</td>
1295
+ <td>[0.179, 0.194]</td>
1296
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1297
  <td>27%</td>
1298
  <td>0%</td>
 
1303
  <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot)</td>
1304
  <td>0.227</td>
1305
  <td>0.182</td>
1306
+ <td>0.100</td>
1307
  <td>0.147</td>
1308
  <td>0.204</td>
1309
  <td>0.187</td>
1310
+ <td>[0.181, 0.193]</td>
1311
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1312
+ <td>27%</td>
1313
  <td>1%</td>
1314
  </tr>
1315
  <tr>
 
1318
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news)</td>
1319
  <td>0.224</td>
1320
  <td>0.185</td>
1321
+ <td>0.108</td>
1322
  <td>0.152</td>
1323
  <td>0.204</td>
1324
  <td>0.188</td>
 
1349
  <td>0.246</td>
1350
  <td>0.146</td>
1351
  <td>0.110</td>
1352
+ <td>0.131</td>
1353
  <td>0.196</td>
1354
  <td>0.188</td>
1355
  <td>[0.182, 0.195]</td>
 
1363
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news)</td>
1364
  <td>0.222</td>
1365
  <td>0.198</td>
1366
+ <td>0.102</td>
1367
  <td>0.157</td>
1368
  <td>0.210</td>
1369
  <td>0.189</td>
 
1393
  <td>Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot)</td>
1394
  <td>0.221</td>
1395
  <td>0.180</td>
1396
+ <td>0.128</td>
1397
+ <td>0.158</td>
1398
  <td>0.201</td>
1399
+ <td>0.190</td>
1400
  <td>[0.181, 0.198]</td>
1401
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1402
  <td>41%</td>
 
1408
  <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1409
  <td>0.224</td>
1410
  <td>0.192</td>
1411
+ <td>0.109</td>
1412
+ <td>0.157</td>
1413
  <td>0.208</td>
1414
  <td>0.190</td>
1415
  <td>[0.184, 0.197]</td>
 
1438
  <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1439
  <td>0.224</td>
1440
  <td>0.201</td>
1441
+ <td>0.103</td>
1442
  <td>0.159</td>
1443
  <td>0.212</td>
1444
  <td>0.191</td>
 
1453
  <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news)</td>
1454
  <td>0.233</td>
1455
  <td>0.195</td>
1456
+ <td>0.095</td>
1457
  <td>0.152</td>
1458
  <td>0.214</td>
1459
  <td>0.193</td>
 
1489
  <td>0.196</td>
1490
  <td>[0.188, 0.203]</td>
1491
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1492
+ <td>30%</td>
1493
  <td>0%</td>
1494
  </tr>
1495
  <tr>
 
1502
  <td>0.142</td>
1503
  <td>0.212</td>
1504
  <td>0.196</td>
1505
+ <td>[0.19, 0.202]</td>
1506
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1507
  <td>28%</td>
1508
  <td>11%</td>
 
1519
  <td>0.196</td>
1520
  <td>[0.189, 0.203]</td>
1521
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1522
+ <td>28%</td>
1523
  <td>10%</td>
1524
  </tr>
1525
  <tr>
 
1532
  <td>0.128</td>
1533
  <td>0.210</td>
1534
  <td>0.197</td>
1535
+ <td>[0.188, 0.206]</td>
1536
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1537
  <td>38%</td>
1538
  <td>0%</td>
 
1544
  <td>0.232</td>
1545
  <td>0.207</td>
1546
  <td>0.104</td>
1547
+ <td>0.163</td>
1548
  <td>0.219</td>
1549
  <td>0.197</td>
1550
  <td>[0.191, 0.203]</td>
 
1574
  <td>0.246</td>
1575
  <td>0.197</td>
1576
  <td>0.100</td>
1577
+ <td>0.156</td>
1578
  <td>0.221</td>
1579
  <td>0.201</td>
1580
  <td>[0.192, 0.209]</td>
 
1591
  <td>0.142</td>
1592
  <td>0.173</td>
1593
  <td>0.214</td>
1594
+ <td>0.203</td>
1595
+ <td>[0.195, 0.211]</td>
1596
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1597
  <td>31%</td>
1598
  <td>1%</td>
 
1633
  <td>Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1634
  <td>0.268</td>
1635
  <td>0.180</td>
1636
+ <td>0.087</td>
1637
  <td>0.140</td>
1638
  <td>0.224</td>
1639
  <td>0.204</td>
 
1678
  <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1679
  <td>0.248</td>
1680
  <td>0.208</td>
1681
+ <td>0.106</td>
1682
  <td>0.164</td>
1683
  <td>0.228</td>
1684
  <td>0.206</td>
 
1693
  <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
1694
  <td>0.254</td>
1695
  <td>0.209</td>
1696
+ <td>0.102</td>
1697
  <td>0.163</td>
1698
  <td>0.231</td>
1699
  <td>0.208</td>
 
1726
  <td>0.112</td>
1727
  <td>0.171</td>
1728
  <td>0.235</td>
1729
+ <td>0.213</td>
1730
  <td>[0.207, 0.218]</td>
1731
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1732
  <td>22%</td>
 
1768
  <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news)</td>
1769
  <td>0.288</td>
1770
  <td>0.178</td>
1771
+ <td>0.104</td>
1772
  <td>0.146</td>
1773
  <td>0.233</td>
1774
  <td>0.217</td>
 
1798
  <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1799
  <td>0.301</td>
1800
  <td>0.165</td>
1801
+ <td>0.096</td>
1802
  <td>0.135</td>
1803
  <td>0.233</td>
1804
  <td>0.218</td>
 
1828
  <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot)</td>
1829
  <td>0.266</td>
1830
  <td>0.206</td>
1831
+ <td>0.124</td>
1832
  <td>0.171</td>
1833
  <td>0.236</td>
1834
  <td>0.218</td>
1835
+ <td>[0.209, 0.228]</td>
1836
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1837
  <td>33%</td>
1838
  <td>1%</td>
 
1843
  <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
1844
  <td>0.247</td>
1845
  <td>0.234</td>
1846
+ <td>0.142</td>
1847
  <td>0.194</td>
1848
  <td>0.240</td>
1849
  <td>0.221</td>
 
1874
  <td>0.278</td>
1875
  <td>0.211</td>
1876
  <td>0.103</td>
1877
+ <td>0.165</td>
1878
  <td>0.244</td>
1879
  <td>0.221</td>
1880
  <td>[0.215, 0.228]</td>
 
1922
  <td>0.177</td>
1923
  <td>0.248</td>
1924
  <td>0.223</td>
1925
+ <td>[0.217, 0.23]</td>
1926
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1927
  <td>22%</td>
1928
  <td>5%</td>
 
1948
  <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
1949
  <td>0.296</td>
1950
  <td>0.186</td>
1951
+ <td>0.120</td>
1952
  <td>0.158</td>
1953
  <td>0.241</td>
1954
  <td>0.227</td>
 
1963
  <td>Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
1964
  <td>0.277</td>
1965
  <td>0.231</td>
1966
+ <td>0.117</td>
1967
  <td>0.182</td>
1968
  <td>0.254</td>
1969
+ <td>0.230</td>
1970
  <td>[0.224, 0.235]</td>
1971
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
1972
  <td>20%</td>
 
1974
  </tr>
1975
  <tr>
1976
  <td>122</td>
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1977
  <td>Anthropic</td>
1978
  <td>Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot)</td>
1979
  <td>0.278</td>
1980
  <td>0.239</td>
1981
  <td>0.121</td>
1982
+ <td>0.189</td>
1983
  <td>0.259</td>
1984
  <td>0.233</td>
1985
  <td>[0.228, 0.239]</td>
 
1987
  <td>24%</td>
1988
  <td>1%</td>
1989
  </tr>
1990
+ <tr>
1991
+ <td>123</td>
1992
+ <td>ForecastBench</td>
1993
+ <td>Always 0</td>
1994
+ <td>0.266</td>
1995
+ <td>0.203</td>
1996
+ <td>0.199</td>
1997
+ <td>0.201</td>
1998
+ <td>0.234</td>
1999
+ <td>0.233</td>
2000
+ <td>[0.221, 0.246]</td>
2001
+ <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2002
+ <td>66%</td>
2003
+ <td>0%</td>
2004
+ </tr>
2005
  <tr>
2006
  <td>124</td>
2007
  <td>Anthropic</td>
 
2012
  <td>0.201</td>
2013
  <td>0.265</td>
2014
  <td>0.234</td>
2015
+ <td>[0.228, 0.241]</td>
2016
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2017
  <td>22%</td>
2018
  <td>6%</td>
 
2042
  <td>0.205</td>
2043
  <td>0.270</td>
2044
  <td>0.241</td>
2045
+ <td>[0.236, 0.246]</td>
2046
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2047
  <td>20%</td>
2048
  <td>1%</td>
 
2083
  <td>Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news)</td>
2084
  <td>0.308</td>
2085
  <td>0.265</td>
2086
+ <td>0.126</td>
2087
  <td>0.205</td>
2088
  <td>0.286</td>
2089
+ <td>0.257</td>
2090
  <td>[0.251, 0.262]</td>
2091
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2092
  <td>20%</td>
 
2129
  <td>0.307</td>
2130
  <td>0.286</td>
2131
  <td>0.151</td>
2132
+ <td>0.229</td>
2133
  <td>0.296</td>
2134
  <td>0.268</td>
2135
  <td>[0.258, 0.277]</td>
 
2143
  <td>Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
2144
  <td>0.300</td>
2145
  <td>0.324</td>
2146
+ <td>0.150</td>
2147
  <td>0.249</td>
2148
  <td>0.312</td>
2149
  <td>0.275</td>
 
2203
  <td>GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot)</td>
2204
  <td>0.446</td>
2205
  <td>0.340</td>
2206
+ <td>0.214</td>
2207
  <td>0.286</td>
2208
  <td>0.393</td>
2209
  <td>0.366</td>
 
2222
  <td>0.683</td>
2223
  <td>0.766</td>
2224
  <td>0.709</td>
2225
+ <td>[0.695, 0.723]</td>
2226
  <td>&lt;0.001</td>
2227
  <td>22%</td>
2228
  <td>0%</td>