ForecastBench bot
commited on
Commit
·
42f02bb
1
Parent(s):
f558d50
leaderboard baseline: automatic update html & csv files.
Browse files
leaderboards/csv/leaderboard_baseline.csv
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Rank,Team,Model Organization,Model,Dataset,N dataset,Dataset 95% CI,Market,N market,Market 95% CI,Overall,N,Overall 95% CI,Supers > Forecaster?,p-val Supers > Forecaster?,Forecaster > Public?,p-val Forecaster > Public?,Pct times № 1,Pct times top 5%,x% oracle equiv,Peer,BSS
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1,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Superforecaster median forecast,0.152,477,"[0.
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2,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Public median forecast,0.185,477,"[0.171, 0.199]",0.075,54,"[0.055, 0.097]",0.13,531,"[0.
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| 4 |
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2,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash-Preview-04-17 (zero shot),0.167,934,"[0.157, 0.176]",0.094,60,"[0.
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| 5 |
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4,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (zero shot),0.165,934,"[0.158, 0.171]",0.107,60,"[0.
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| 6 |
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5,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (scratchpad),0.173,934,"[0.166, 0.18]",0.1,60,"[0.
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| 7 |
6,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (scratchpad),0.176,6468,"[0.173, 0.179]",0.101,420,"[0.088, 0.114]",0.138,6888,"[0.132, 0.145]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.89,0.0,0.0,63%,0.171,0.038
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| 8 |
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6,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (zero shot),0.175,1851,"[0.171, 0.179]",0.101,135,"[0.076, 0.
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| 9 |
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8,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (scratchpad),0.173,1851,"[0.169, 0.178]",0.114,135,"[0.
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| 10 |
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8,ForecastBench,xAI,Grok-beta (zero shot),0.196,1835,"[0.191, 0.201]",0.093,122,"[0.
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| 11 |
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10,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-R1 (scratchpad),0.174,3698,"[0.171, 0.
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| 12 |
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11,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (scratchpad),0.194,6468,"[0.191, 0.197]",0.103,420,"[0.
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| 13 |
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12,ForecastBench,Qwen,QwQ-32B-Preview (scratchpad),0.197,1849,"[0.189, 0.205]",0.102,121,"[0.
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| 14 |
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13,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (zero shot),0.183,6468,"[0.
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| 15 |
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13,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Imputed Forecaster,0.25,11593,"[0.25, 0.25]",0.054,740,"[0.
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| 16 |
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13,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (zero shot),0.17,3207,"[0.166, 0.175]",0.133,173,"[0.
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| 17 |
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16,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (zero shot),0.193,6468,"[0.191, 0.196]",0.113,420,"[0.096, 0.131]",0.153,6888,"[0.
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| 18 |
16,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (scratchpad),0.175,4141,"[0.169, 0.181]",0.131,233,"[0.105, 0.159]",0.153,4374,"[0.139, 0.167]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,61%,0.154,0.024
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16,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (scratchpad),0.173,680,"[0.
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| 20 |
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16,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (zero shot),0.181,4821,"[0.176, 0.185]",0.125,264,"[0.101, 0.
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| 21 |
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20,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (zero shot),0.165,680,"[0.157, 0.173]",0.144,31,"[0.
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| 22 |
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20,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514 (zero shot),0.174,680,"[0.165, 0.183]",0.135,31,"[0.
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| 23 |
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22,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (scratchpad),0.173,3207,"[0.169, 0.178]",0.142,173,"[0.112, 0.
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| 24 |
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22,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (zero shot),0.158,680,"[0.149, 0.167]",0.158,31,"[0.
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| 25 |
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24,ForecastBench,Meta,Meta-Llama-3.1-405B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot),0.2,1848,"[0.195, 0.205]",0.12,103,"[0.089, 0.
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| 26 |
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25,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (zero shot),0.193,3698,"[0.188, 0.197]",0.13,249,"[0.
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| 27 |
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25,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot),0.193,11593,"[0.191, 0.196]",0.13,740,"[0.
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| 28 |
25,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad),0.191,10915,"[0.189, 0.194]",0.13,703,"[0.118, 0.142]",0.161,11618,"[0.155, 0.167]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.145,0.016
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| 29 |
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28,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Pro (zero shot),0.153,680,"[0.144, 0.
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| 30 |
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28,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (zero shot),0.198,4620,"[0.195, 0.202]",0.126,317,"[0.11, 0.
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| 31 |
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30,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (scratchpad),0.188,922,"[0.
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| 32 |
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31,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot),0.199,4934,"[0.195, 0.202]",0.13,322,"[0.111, 0.
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| 33 |
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31,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-2025-08-07 (zero shot),0.157,680,"[0.148, 0.
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| 34 |
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33,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (scratchpad),0.185,5023,"[0.181, 0.188]",0.147,272,"[0.
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| 35 |
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33,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad),0.199,1269,"[0.192, 0.207]",0.132,118,"[0.
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| 36 |
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35,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot),0.219,6468,"[0.215, 0.
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| 37 |
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35,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Mini-2025-08-07 (zero shot),0.168,680,"[0.159, 0.177]",0.167,31,"[0.
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| 38 |
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37,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-05-13 (zero shot),0.215,6434,"[0.212, 0.219]",0.125,386,"[0.109, 0.
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| 39 |
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37,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (scratchpad),0.201,6468,"[0.198, 0.204]",0.138,420,"[0.125, 0.
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| 40 |
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37,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad),0.207,1269,"[0.198, 0.215]",0.134,118,"[0.104, 0.164]",0.17,1387,"[0.
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| 41 |
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40,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (scratchpad),0.211,1835,"[0.203, 0.218]",0.132,122,"[0.
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| 42 |
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41,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad),0.209,1269,"[0.2, 0.219]",0.137,118,"[0.
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| 43 |
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42,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-4-Scout-17B-16E-Instruct (zero shot),0.23,4378,"[0.226, 0.235]",0.117,257,"[0.1, 0.
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| 44 |
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43,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot),0.215,1848,"[0.209, 0.221]",0.135,103,"[0.
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| 45 |
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44,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.224,2174,"[0.
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| 46 |
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45,ForecastBench,Moonshot,Kimi-K2-Instruct (zero shot),0.198,2039,"[0.
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| 47 |
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45,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Naive Forecaster,0.299,11593,"[0.294, 0.303]",0.055,740,"[0.
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| 48 |
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45,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (scratchpad),0.197,929,"[0.191, 0.203]",0.158,67,"[0.
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| 49 |
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45,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-20250514 (scratchpad),0.172,681,"[0.163, 0.18]",0.182,33,"[0.
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| 50 |
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49,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot),0.197,4934,"[0.193, 0.201]",0.159,322,"[0.137, 0.182]",0.178,5256,"[0.167, 0.
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| 51 |
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49,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (scratchpad),0.214,1269,"[0.205, 0.222]",0.143,118,"[0.
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| 52 |
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49,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot),0.225,1269,"[0.
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| 53 |
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52,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2407 (zero shot),0.215,6434,"[0.212, 0.218]",0.144,386,"[0.
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| 54 |
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53,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad),0.207,1269,"[0.2, 0.215]",0.152,118,"[0.
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| 55 |
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54,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad),0.201,4934,"[0.197, 0.205]",0.168,322,"[0.
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| 56 |
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55,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad),0.215,1269,"[0.206, 0.
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| 57 |
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56,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (zero shot),0.21,1269,"[0.201, 0.219]",0.164,118,"[0.
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| 58 |
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57,ForecastBench,Z.ai,GLM-4.5-Air-FP8 (zero shot),0.197,680,"[0.
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| 59 |
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58,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.22,1269,"[0.212, 0.229]",0.16,118,"[0.
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| 60 |
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59,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (zero shot),0.25,1835,"[0.241, 0.
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| 61 |
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59,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot),0.22,1269,"[0.212, 0.228]",0.163,118,"[0.
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| 62 |
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61,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.229,3086,"[0.224, 0.235]",0.157,219,"[0.
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| 63 |
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61,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.241,1269,"[0.
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| 64 |
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61,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash (zero shot),0.17,680,"[0.159, 0.181]",0.216,31,"[0.
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| 65 |
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64,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot),0.233,1269,"[0.224, 0.243]",0.155,118,"[0.
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| 66 |
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65,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2411 (zero shot),0.218,2039,"[0.
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| 67 |
66,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.234,1269,"[0.225, 0.244]",0.163,118,"[0.127, 0.202]",0.199,1387,"[0.18, 0.219]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.084,-0.013
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| 68 |
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67,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Nano-2025-08-07 (zero shot),0.199,680,"[0.
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| 69 |
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68,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad),0.242,1269,"[0.23, 0.
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| 70 |
-
69,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot),0.238,1269,"[0.
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| 71 |
-
69,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.23,1269,"[0.221, 0.239]",0.184,118,"[0.
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| 72 |
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71,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot),0.239,1269,"[0.
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| 73 |
-
72,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.256,1269,"[0.247, 0.266]",0.182,118,"[0.
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| 74 |
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73,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot),0.262,4934,"[0.257, 0.267]",0.183,322,"[0.169, 0.
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| 75 |
-
74,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.262,1269,"[0.
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| 76 |
-
75,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad),0.265,1269,"[0.255, 0.
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| 77 |
-
76,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad),0.275,1269,"[0.265, 0.285]",0.212,118,"[0.
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| 78 |
77,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Always 0.5,0.25,11593,"[0.25, 0.25]",0.25,740,"[0.25, 0.25]",0.25,12333,"[0.25, 0.25]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,50%,0.057,-0.073
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| 79 |
-
78,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.282,1269,"[0.
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| 80 |
-
79,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Always 0,0.426,11593,"[0.
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| 81 |
-
80,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Random Uniform,0.331,11593,"[0.326, 0.337]",0.332,740,"[0.
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| 82 |
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81,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot),0.426,1269,"[0.
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| 83 |
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82,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Always 1,0.574,11593,"[0.566, 0.
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| 1 |
Rank,Team,Model Organization,Model,Dataset,N dataset,Dataset 95% CI,Market,N market,Market 95% CI,Overall,N,Overall 95% CI,Supers > Forecaster?,p-val Supers > Forecaster?,Forecaster > Public?,p-val Forecaster > Public?,Pct times № 1,Pct times top 5%,x% oracle equiv,Peer,BSS
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| 2 |
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1,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Superforecaster median forecast,0.152,477,"[0.141, 0.162]",0.035,54,"[0.016, 0.053]",0.093,531,"[0.083, 0.104]",—,—,Yes,<0.001,94.297,100.0,69%,0.185,0.097
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| 3 |
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2,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Public median forecast,0.185,477,"[0.171, 0.199]",0.075,54,"[0.055, 0.097]",0.13,531,"[0.118, 0.143]",Yes,<0.001,—,—,0.0,4.952,64%,0.148,0.06
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| 4 |
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2,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash-Preview-04-17 (zero shot),0.167,934,"[0.157, 0.176]",0.094,60,"[0.063, 0.131]",0.13,994,"[0.114, 0.15]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.51,0.0,10.255,64%,0.17,0.051
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| 5 |
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4,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (zero shot),0.165,934,"[0.158, 0.171]",0.107,60,"[0.071, 0.151]",0.136,994,"[0.118, 0.158]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.68,0.0,2.451,63%,0.165,0.046
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| 6 |
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5,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (scratchpad),0.173,934,"[0.166, 0.18]",0.1,60,"[0.07, 0.137]",0.137,994,"[0.121, 0.155]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.73,0.0,0.35,63%,0.164,0.045
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6,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (scratchpad),0.176,6468,"[0.173, 0.179]",0.101,420,"[0.088, 0.114]",0.138,6888,"[0.132, 0.145]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.89,0.0,0.0,63%,0.171,0.038
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| 8 |
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6,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (zero shot),0.175,1851,"[0.171, 0.179]",0.101,135,"[0.076, 0.129]",0.138,1986,"[0.126, 0.152]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.82,0.0,0.25,63%,0.182,0.034
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| 9 |
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8,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (scratchpad),0.173,1851,"[0.169, 0.178]",0.114,135,"[0.091, 0.137]",0.144,1986,"[0.132, 0.155]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.95,0.0,0.0,62%,0.176,0.028
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| 10 |
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8,ForecastBench,xAI,Grok-beta (zero shot),0.196,1835,"[0.191, 0.201]",0.093,122,"[0.07, 0.117]",0.144,1957,"[0.132, 0.157]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.95,0.0,0.0,62%,0.169,0.036
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| 11 |
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10,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-R1 (scratchpad),0.174,3698,"[0.171, 0.177]",0.116,249,"[0.101, 0.132]",0.145,3947,"[0.137, 0.153]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.98,0.0,0.0,62%,0.166,0.033
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| 12 |
+
11,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (scratchpad),0.194,6468,"[0.191, 0.197]",0.103,420,"[0.089, 0.118]",0.148,6888,"[0.141, 0.156]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,61%,0.161,0.028
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| 13 |
+
12,ForecastBench,Qwen,QwQ-32B-Preview (scratchpad),0.197,1849,"[0.189, 0.205]",0.102,121,"[0.08, 0.126]",0.15,1970,"[0.138, 0.162]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,61%,0.153,0.032
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| 14 |
+
13,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (zero shot),0.183,6468,"[0.18, 0.186]",0.122,420,"[0.105, 0.14]",0.152,6888,"[0.144, 0.162]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.157,0.024
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| 15 |
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13,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Imputed Forecaster,0.25,11593,"[0.25, 0.25]",0.054,740,"[0.044, 0.064]",0.152,12333,"[0.147, 0.157]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.155,0.025
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| 16 |
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13,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (zero shot),0.17,3207,"[0.166, 0.175]",0.133,173,"[0.103, 0.169]",0.152,3380,"[0.137, 0.17]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,61%,0.156,0.023
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| 17 |
+
16,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (zero shot),0.193,6468,"[0.191, 0.196]",0.113,420,"[0.096, 0.131]",0.153,6888,"[0.144, 0.162]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.156,0.024
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| 18 |
16,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (scratchpad),0.175,4141,"[0.169, 0.181]",0.131,233,"[0.105, 0.159]",0.153,4374,"[0.139, 0.167]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,61%,0.154,0.024
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| 19 |
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16,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (scratchpad),0.173,680,"[0.163, 0.183]",0.132,31,"[0.08, 0.201]",0.153,711,"[0.126, 0.187]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.93,0.0,0.0,61%,0.151,0.016
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| 20 |
+
16,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (zero shot),0.181,4821,"[0.176, 0.185]",0.125,264,"[0.101, 0.153]",0.153,5085,"[0.141, 0.167]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.153,0.022
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| 21 |
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20,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (zero shot),0.165,680,"[0.157, 0.173]",0.144,31,"[0.066, 0.217]",0.154,711,"[0.114, 0.191]",Yes,<0.01,No,0.88,0.0,3.952,61%,0.15,0.015
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| 22 |
+
20,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514 (zero shot),0.174,680,"[0.165, 0.183]",0.135,31,"[0.069, 0.204]",0.154,711,"[0.12, 0.189]",Yes,<0.01,No,0.91,0.0,1.601,61%,0.15,0.015
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| 23 |
+
22,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (scratchpad),0.173,3207,"[0.169, 0.178]",0.142,173,"[0.112, 0.175]",0.158,3380,"[0.143, 0.174]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.15,0.017
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| 24 |
+
22,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (zero shot),0.158,680,"[0.149, 0.167]",0.158,31,"[0.111, 0.219]",0.158,711,"[0.134, 0.188]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.98,0.0,0.0,60%,0.146,0.011
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| 25 |
+
24,ForecastBench,Meta,Meta-Llama-3.1-405B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot),0.2,1848,"[0.195, 0.205]",0.12,103,"[0.089, 0.154]",0.16,1951,"[0.144, 0.177]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.136,0.016
|
| 26 |
+
25,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (zero shot),0.193,3698,"[0.188, 0.197]",0.13,249,"[0.111, 0.15]",0.161,3947,"[0.151, 0.172]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.149,0.017
|
| 27 |
+
25,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot),0.193,11593,"[0.191, 0.196]",0.13,740,"[0.117, 0.143]",0.161,12333,"[0.155, 0.168]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.146,0.015
|
| 28 |
25,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad),0.191,10915,"[0.189, 0.194]",0.13,703,"[0.118, 0.142]",0.161,11618,"[0.155, 0.167]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.145,0.016
|
| 29 |
+
28,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Pro (zero shot),0.153,680,"[0.144, 0.161]",0.171,31,"[0.067, 0.278]",0.162,711,"[0.109, 0.215]",Yes,<0.01,No,0.88,0.7,5.253,60%,0.142,0.007
|
| 30 |
+
28,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (zero shot),0.198,4620,"[0.195, 0.202]",0.126,317,"[0.11, 0.143]",0.162,4937,"[0.154, 0.171]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.151,0.015
|
| 31 |
+
30,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (scratchpad),0.188,922,"[0.183, 0.194]",0.138,68,"[0.101, 0.175]",0.163,990,"[0.145, 0.182]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.161,0.01
|
| 32 |
+
31,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot),0.199,4934,"[0.195, 0.202]",0.13,322,"[0.111, 0.148]",0.164,5256,"[0.155, 0.174]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.133,0.014
|
| 33 |
+
31,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-2025-08-07 (zero shot),0.157,680,"[0.148, 0.165]",0.17,31,"[0.094, 0.26]",0.164,711,"[0.126, 0.209]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.95,0.0,0.25,60%,0.141,0.006
|
| 34 |
+
33,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (scratchpad),0.185,5023,"[0.181, 0.188]",0.147,272,"[0.128, 0.167]",0.166,5295,"[0.156, 0.176]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.142,0.008
|
| 35 |
+
33,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad),0.199,1269,"[0.192, 0.207]",0.132,118,"[0.098, 0.166]",0.166,1387,"[0.148, 0.183]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.117,0.02
|
| 36 |
+
35,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot),0.219,6468,"[0.215, 0.222]",0.116,420,"[0.1, 0.132]",0.167,6888,"[0.159, 0.176]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.142,0.009
|
| 37 |
+
35,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Mini-2025-08-07 (zero shot),0.168,680,"[0.159, 0.177]",0.167,31,"[0.11, 0.24]",0.167,711,"[0.138, 0.203]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,59%,0.137,0.002
|
| 38 |
+
37,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-05-13 (zero shot),0.215,6434,"[0.212, 0.219]",0.125,386,"[0.109, 0.141]",0.17,6820,"[0.162, 0.179]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.137,0.008
|
| 39 |
+
37,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (scratchpad),0.201,6468,"[0.198, 0.204]",0.138,420,"[0.125, 0.153]",0.17,6888,"[0.163, 0.177]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.139,0.007
|
| 40 |
+
37,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad),0.207,1269,"[0.198, 0.215]",0.134,118,"[0.104, 0.164]",0.17,1387,"[0.154, 0.186]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
|
| 41 |
+
40,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (scratchpad),0.211,1835,"[0.203, 0.218]",0.132,122,"[0.112, 0.154]",0.171,1957,"[0.16, 0.183]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.142,0.009
|
| 42 |
+
41,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad),0.209,1269,"[0.2, 0.219]",0.137,118,"[0.107, 0.168]",0.173,1387,"[0.157, 0.188]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.109,0.012
|
| 43 |
+
42,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-4-Scout-17B-16E-Instruct (zero shot),0.23,4378,"[0.226, 0.235]",0.117,257,"[0.1, 0.136]",0.174,4635,"[0.165, 0.184]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.13,0.005
|
| 44 |
+
43,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot),0.215,1848,"[0.209, 0.221]",0.135,103,"[0.106, 0.168]",0.175,1951,"[0.16, 0.191]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.121,0.001
|
| 45 |
+
44,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.224,2174,"[0.216, 0.231]",0.129,167,"[0.095, 0.165]",0.176,2341,"[0.159, 0.195]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.114,0.005
|
| 46 |
+
45,ForecastBench,Moonshot,Kimi-K2-Instruct (zero shot),0.198,2039,"[0.192, 0.206]",0.155,101,"[0.113, 0.199]",0.177,2140,"[0.155, 0.199]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.142,-0.005
|
| 47 |
+
45,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Naive Forecaster,0.299,11593,"[0.294, 0.303]",0.055,740,"[0.045, 0.065]",0.177,12333,"[0.172, 0.182]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.13,0.0
|
| 48 |
+
45,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (scratchpad),0.197,929,"[0.191, 0.203]",0.158,67,"[0.124, 0.193]",0.177,996,"[0.161, 0.195]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.138,-0.007
|
| 49 |
+
45,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-20250514 (scratchpad),0.172,681,"[0.163, 0.18]",0.182,33,"[0.122, 0.252]",0.177,714,"[0.147, 0.212]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.15,0.001
|
| 50 |
+
49,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot),0.197,4934,"[0.193, 0.201]",0.159,322,"[0.137, 0.182]",0.178,5256,"[0.167, 0.189]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.119,0.001
|
| 51 |
+
49,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (scratchpad),0.214,1269,"[0.205, 0.222]",0.143,118,"[0.114, 0.169]",0.178,1387,"[0.163, 0.192]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.104,0.007
|
| 52 |
+
49,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot),0.225,1269,"[0.214, 0.236]",0.131,118,"[0.095, 0.166]",0.178,1387,"[0.159, 0.197]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.104,0.007
|
| 53 |
+
52,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2407 (zero shot),0.215,6434,"[0.212, 0.218]",0.144,386,"[0.127, 0.161]",0.179,6820,"[0.171, 0.188]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.128,-0.001
|
| 54 |
+
53,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad),0.207,1269,"[0.2, 0.215]",0.152,118,"[0.125, 0.18]",0.18,1387,"[0.166, 0.195]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.103,0.005
|
| 55 |
+
54,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad),0.201,4934,"[0.197, 0.205]",0.168,322,"[0.15, 0.185]",0.185,5256,"[0.176, 0.194]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.112,-0.006
|
| 56 |
+
55,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad),0.215,1269,"[0.206, 0.224]",0.158,118,"[0.124, 0.19]",0.186,1387,"[0.169, 0.203]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.096,-0.001
|
| 57 |
+
56,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (zero shot),0.21,1269,"[0.201, 0.219]",0.164,118,"[0.132, 0.193]",0.187,1387,"[0.171, 0.202]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.096,-0.001
|
| 58 |
+
57,ForecastBench,Z.ai,GLM-4.5-Air-FP8 (zero shot),0.197,680,"[0.185, 0.21]",0.179,31,"[0.115, 0.251]",0.188,711,"[0.156, 0.225]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.116,-0.019
|
| 59 |
+
58,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.22,1269,"[0.212, 0.229]",0.16,118,"[0.131, 0.189]",0.19,1387,"[0.175, 0.205]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.092,-0.005
|
| 60 |
+
59,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (zero shot),0.25,1835,"[0.241, 0.26]",0.131,122,"[0.099, 0.166]",0.191,1957,"[0.174, 0.208]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.123,-0.011
|
| 61 |
+
59,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot),0.22,1269,"[0.212, 0.228]",0.163,118,"[0.131, 0.194]",0.191,1387,"[0.175, 0.208]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.091,-0.006
|
| 62 |
+
61,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.229,3086,"[0.224, 0.235]",0.157,219,"[0.133, 0.181]",0.193,3305,"[0.181, 0.206]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.104,-0.013
|
| 63 |
+
61,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.241,1269,"[0.227, 0.254]",0.145,118,"[0.104, 0.187]",0.193,1387,"[0.171, 0.215]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.09,-0.007
|
| 64 |
+
61,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash (zero shot),0.17,680,"[0.159, 0.181]",0.216,31,"[0.127, 0.32]",0.193,711,"[0.148, 0.246]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.112,-0.024
|
| 65 |
+
64,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot),0.233,1269,"[0.224, 0.243]",0.155,118,"[0.117, 0.193]",0.194,1387,"[0.174, 0.214]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.089,-0.009
|
| 66 |
+
65,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2411 (zero shot),0.218,2039,"[0.211, 0.225]",0.171,101,"[0.14, 0.205]",0.195,2140,"[0.179, 0.212]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.124,-0.023
|
| 67 |
66,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.234,1269,"[0.225, 0.244]",0.163,118,"[0.127, 0.202]",0.199,1387,"[0.18, 0.219]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.084,-0.013
|
| 68 |
+
67,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Nano-2025-08-07 (zero shot),0.199,680,"[0.184, 0.214]",0.202,31,"[0.141, 0.277]",0.201,711,"[0.169, 0.239]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.104,-0.032
|
| 69 |
+
68,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad),0.242,1269,"[0.23, 0.253]",0.165,118,"[0.132, 0.197]",0.203,1387,"[0.185, 0.221]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,55%,0.079,-0.018
|
| 70 |
+
69,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot),0.238,1269,"[0.231, 0.246]",0.176,118,"[0.141, 0.212]",0.207,1387,"[0.189, 0.225]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.075,-0.022
|
| 71 |
+
69,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.23,1269,"[0.221, 0.239]",0.184,118,"[0.154, 0.211]",0.207,1387,"[0.192, 0.221]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,55%,0.076,-0.022
|
| 72 |
+
71,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot),0.239,1269,"[0.228, 0.25]",0.193,118,"[0.151, 0.235]",0.216,1387,"[0.194, 0.237]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.067,-0.03
|
| 73 |
+
72,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.256,1269,"[0.247, 0.266]",0.182,118,"[0.15, 0.212]",0.219,1387,"[0.202, 0.235]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,53%,0.063,-0.034
|
| 74 |
+
73,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot),0.262,4934,"[0.257, 0.267]",0.183,322,"[0.169, 0.197]",0.222,5256,"[0.215, 0.23]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,53%,0.075,-0.044
|
| 75 |
+
74,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.262,1269,"[0.254, 0.27]",0.205,118,"[0.17, 0.238]",0.233,1387,"[0.216, 0.25]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,52%,0.049,-0.048
|
| 76 |
+
75,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad),0.265,1269,"[0.255, 0.275]",0.214,118,"[0.181, 0.246]",0.24,1387,"[0.222, 0.256]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,51%,0.043,-0.054
|
| 77 |
+
76,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad),0.275,1269,"[0.265, 0.285]",0.212,118,"[0.175, 0.248]",0.243,1387,"[0.224, 0.263]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,51%,0.039,-0.058
|
| 78 |
77,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Always 0.5,0.25,11593,"[0.25, 0.25]",0.25,740,"[0.25, 0.25]",0.25,12333,"[0.25, 0.25]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,50%,0.057,-0.073
|
| 79 |
+
78,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.282,1269,"[0.271, 0.292]",0.301,118,"[0.257, 0.345]",0.292,1387,"[0.269, 0.314]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,46%,-0.009,-0.106
|
| 80 |
+
79,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Always 0,0.426,11593,"[0.418, 0.434]",0.168,740,"[0.145, 0.195]",0.297,12333,"[0.284, 0.31]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,46%,0.01,-0.12
|
| 81 |
+
80,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Random Uniform,0.331,11593,"[0.326, 0.337]",0.332,740,"[0.312, 0.352]",0.331,12333,"[0.321, 0.342]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,42%,-0.024,-0.155
|
| 82 |
+
81,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot),0.426,1269,"[0.413, 0.439]",0.24,118,"[0.194, 0.289]",0.333,1387,"[0.309, 0.358]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,42%,-0.051,-0.148
|
| 83 |
+
82,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Always 1,0.574,11593,"[0.566, 0.582]",0.832,740,"[0.805, 0.855]",0.703,12333,"[0.69, 0.716]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,16%,-0.396,-0.527
|
leaderboards/html/leaderboard_baseline.html
CHANGED
|
@@ -53,7 +53,7 @@
|
|
| 53 |
</head>
|
| 54 |
<body>
|
| 55 |
<h1>ForecastBench Leaderboard</h1>
|
| 56 |
-
<p class="updated-date">Updated Dec.
|
| 57 |
<table id="dataTable" class="ui celled table">
|
| 58 |
<thead>
|
| 59 |
<tr>
|
|
@@ -85,7 +85,7 @@
|
|
| 85 |
</table>
|
| 86 |
<script>
|
| 87 |
$(document).ready(function(){
|
| 88 |
-
const rawData = [{'Rank': 1, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'ForecastBench', 'Model': 'Superforecaster median forecast', 'Dataset': 0.152, 'N dataset': 477, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.142, 0.162]', 'Market': 0.035, 'N market': 54, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.016, 0.054]', 'Overall': 0.093, 'N': 531, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.083, 0.104]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': '—', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '—', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'Yes', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '<0.001', 'Pct times № 1': 94.297, 'Pct times top 5%': 100.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '69%', 'Peer': 0.185, 'BSS': 0.097}, {'Rank': 2, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'ForecastBench', 'Model': 'Public median forecast', 'Dataset': 0.185, 'N dataset': 477, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.171, 0.199]', 'Market': 0.075, 'N market': 54, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.055, 0.097]', 'Overall': 0.13, 'N': 531, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.117, 0.143]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': '—', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '—', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 5.603, 'x% oracle equiv': '64%', 'Peer': 0.148, 'BSS': 0.06}, {'Rank': 2, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Google', 'Model': 'Gemini-2.5-Flash-Preview-04-17 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.167, 'N dataset': 934, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.157, 0.176]', 'Market': 0.094, 'N market': 60, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.062, 0.132]', 'Overall': 0.13, 'N': 994, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.114, 0.15]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.49', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 9.855, 'x% oracle equiv': '64%', 'Peer': 0.17, 'BSS': 0.051}, {'Rank': 4, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'O3-2025-04-16 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.165, 'N dataset': 934, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.158, 0.171]', 'Market': 0.107, 'N market': 60, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.069, 0.151]', 'Overall': 0.136, 'N': 994, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.116, 0.159]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.67', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 3.652, 'x% oracle equiv': '63%', 'Peer': 0.165, 'BSS': 0.046}, {'Rank': 5, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'O3-2025-04-16 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.173, 'N dataset': 934, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.166, 0.18]', 'Market': 0.1, 'N market': 60, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.069, 0.138]', 'Overall': 0.137, 'N': 994, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.121, 0.156]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.73', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.45, 'x% oracle equiv': '63%', 'Peer': 0.164, 'BSS': 0.045}, {'Rank': 6, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.176, 'N dataset': 6468, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.173, 0.179]', 'Market': 0.101, 'N market': 420, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.088, 0.114]', 'Overall': 0.138, 'N': 6888, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.132, 0.145]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.89', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '63%', 'Peer': 0.171, 'BSS': 0.038}, {'Rank': 6, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.175, 'N dataset': 1851, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.171, 0.179]', 'Market': 0.101, 'N market': 135, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.076, 0.127]', 'Overall': 0.138, 'N': 1986, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.125, 0.151]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.82', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.25, 'x% oracle equiv': '63%', 'Peer': 0.182, 'BSS': 0.034}, {'Rank': 8, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.173, 'N dataset': 1851, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.169, 0.178]', 'Market': 0.114, 'N market': 135, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.092, 0.136]', 'Overall': 0.144, 'N': 1986, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.133, 0.155]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.95', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '62%', 'Peer': 0.176, 'BSS': 0.028}, {'Rank': 8, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'xAI', 'Model': 'Grok-beta (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.196, 'N dataset': 1835, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.191, 0.201]', 'Market': 0.093, 'N market': 122, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.069, 0.117]', 'Overall': 0.144, 'N': 1957, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.132, 0.157]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.94', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '62%', 'Peer': 0.169, 'BSS': 0.036}, {'Rank': 10, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'DeepSeek', 'Model': 'DeepSeek-R1 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.174, 'N dataset': 3698, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.171, 0.178]', 'Market': 0.116, 'N market': 249, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.101, 0.132]', 'Overall': 0.145, 'N': 3947, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.137, 0.153]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.98', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '62%', 'Peer': 0.166, 'BSS': 0.033}, {'Rank': 11, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.194, 'N dataset': 6468, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.191, 0.197]', 'Market': 0.103, 'N market': 420, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.088, 0.119]', 'Overall': 0.148, 'N': 6888, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.141, 0.157]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '61%', 'Peer': 0.161, 'BSS': 0.028}, {'Rank': 12, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Qwen', 'Model': 'QwQ-32B-Preview (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.197, 'N dataset': 1849, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.189, 0.205]', 'Market': 0.102, 'N market': 121, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.079, 0.124]', 'Overall': 0.15, 'N': 1970, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.138, 0.162]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.98', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '61%', 'Peer': 0.153, 'BSS': 0.032}, {'Rank': 13, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.183, 'N dataset': 6468, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.181, 0.186]', 'Market': 0.122, 'N market': 420, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.104, 0.14]', 'Overall': 0.152, 'N': 6888, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.144, 0.162]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '61%', 'Peer': 0.157, 'BSS': 0.024}, {'Rank': 13, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'ForecastBench', 'Model': 'Imputed Forecaster', 'Dataset': 0.25, 'N dataset': 11593, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.25, 0.25]', 'Market': 0.054, 'N market': 740, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.045, 0.064]', 'Overall': 0.152, 'N': 12333, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.147, 0.157]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '61%', 'Peer': 0.155, 'BSS': 0.025}, {'Rank': 13, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.17, 'N dataset': 3207, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.166, 0.175]', 'Market': 0.133, 'N market': 173, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.102, 0.165]', 'Overall': 0.152, 'N': 3380, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.135, 0.169]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.98', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '61%', 'Peer': 0.156, 'BSS': 0.023}, {'Rank': 16, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.193, 'N dataset': 6468, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.191, 0.196]', 'Market': 0.113, 'N market': 420, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.096, 0.131]', 'Overall': 0.153, 'N': 6888, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.145, 0.162]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '61%', 'Peer': 0.156, 'BSS': 0.024}, {'Rank': 16, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.175, 'N dataset': 4141, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.169, 0.181]', 'Market': 0.131, 'N market': 233, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.105, 0.159]', 'Overall': 0.153, 'N': 4374, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.139, 0.167]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.99', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '61%', 'Peer': 0.154, 'BSS': 0.024}, {'Rank': 16, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.173, 'N dataset': 680, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.164, 0.183]', 'Market': 0.132, 'N market': 31, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.078, 0.197]', 'Overall': 0.153, 'N': 711, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.125, 0.185]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.92', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.05, 'x% oracle equiv': '61%', 'Peer': 0.151, 'BSS': 0.016}, {'Rank': 16, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.181, 'N dataset': 4821, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.176, 0.185]', 'Market': 0.125, 'N market': 264, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.101, 0.152]', 'Overall': 0.153, 'N': 5085, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.14, 0.166]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.99', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '61%', 'Peer': 0.153, 'BSS': 0.022}, {'Rank': 20, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Qwen', 'Model': 'Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.165, 'N dataset': 680, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.157, 0.173]', 'Market': 0.144, 'N market': 31, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.067, 0.217]', 'Overall': 0.154, 'N': 711, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.116, 0.191]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.01', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.88', 'Pct times № 1': 0.05, 'Pct times top 5%': 3.602, 'x% oracle equiv': '61%', 'Peer': 0.15, 'BSS': 0.015}, {'Rank': 20, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.174, 'N dataset': 680, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.165, 0.183]', 'Market': 0.135, 'N market': 31, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.07, 0.201]', 'Overall': 0.154, 'N': 711, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.122, 0.188]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.01', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.91', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 1.551, 'x% oracle equiv': '61%', 'Peer': 0.15, 'BSS': 0.015}, {'Rank': 22, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.173, 'N dataset': 3207, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.169, 0.178]', 'Market': 0.142, 'N market': 173, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.112, 0.174]', 'Overall': 0.158, 'N': 3380, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.142, 0.174]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '60%', 'Peer': 0.15, 'BSS': 0.017}, {'Rank': 22, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.158, 'N dataset': 680, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.149, 0.167]', 'Market': 0.158, 'N market': 31, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.107, 0.217]', 'Overall': 0.158, 'N': 711, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.132, 0.187]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.97', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '60%', 'Peer': 0.146, 'BSS': 0.011}, {'Rank': 24, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Meta', 'Model': 'Meta-Llama-3.1-405B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.2, 'N dataset': 1848, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.195, 0.205]', 'Market': 0.12, 'N market': 103, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.089, 0.153]', 'Overall': 0.16, 'N': 1951, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.144, 0.177]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '60%', 'Peer': 0.136, 'BSS': 0.016}, {'Rank': 25, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.193, 'N dataset': 3698, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.188, 0.197]', 'Market': 0.13, 'N market': 249, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.11, 0.15]', 'Overall': 0.161, 'N': 3947, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.151, 0.171]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '60%', 'Peer': 0.149, 'BSS': 0.017}, {'Rank': 25, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.193, 'N dataset': 11593, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.191, 0.196]', 'Market': 0.13, 'N market': 740, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.116, 0.144]', 'Overall': 0.161, 'N': 12333, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.154, 0.168]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '60%', 'Peer': 0.146, 'BSS': 0.015}, {'Rank': 25, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.191, 'N dataset': 10915, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.189, 0.194]', 'Market': 0.13, 'N market': 703, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.118, 0.142]', 'Overall': 0.161, 'N': 11618, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.155, 0.167]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '60%', 'Peer': 0.145, 'BSS': 0.016}, {'Rank': 28, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Google', 'Model': 'Gemini-2.5-Pro (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.153, 'N dataset': 680, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.144, 0.162]', 'Market': 0.171, 'N market': 31, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.071, 0.273]', 'Overall': 0.162, 'N': 711, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.11, 0.212]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.01', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.88', 'Pct times № 1': 0.55, 'Pct times top 5%': 4.902, 'x% oracle equiv': '60%', 'Peer': 0.142, 'BSS': 0.007}, {'Rank': 28, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'DeepSeek', 'Model': 'DeepSeek-V3 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.198, 'N dataset': 4620, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.195, 0.202]', 'Market': 0.126, 'N market': 317, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.11, 0.142]', 'Overall': 0.162, 'N': 4937, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.154, 0.17]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '60%', 'Peer': 0.151, 'BSS': 0.015}, {'Rank': 30, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'DeepSeek', 'Model': 'DeepSeek-V3 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.188, 'N dataset': 922, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.182, 0.194]', 'Market': 0.138, 'N market': 68, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.103, 0.173]', 'Overall': 0.163, 'N': 990, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.146, 0.181]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '60%', 'Peer': 0.161, 'BSS': 0.01}, {'Rank': 31, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.199, 'N dataset': 4934, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.195, 0.202]', 'Market': 0.13, 'N market': 322, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.111, 0.149]', 'Overall': 0.164, 'N': 5256, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.155, 0.174]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '59%', 'Peer': 0.133, 'BSS': 0.014}, {'Rank': 31, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-5-2025-08-07 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.157, 'N dataset': 680, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.148, 0.166]', 'Market': 0.17, 'N market': 31, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.092, 0.257]', 'Overall': 0.164, 'N': 711, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.124, 0.207]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.94', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.25, 'x% oracle equiv': '60%', 'Peer': 0.141, 'BSS': 0.006}, {'Rank': 33, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Qwen', 'Model': 'Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.185, 'N dataset': 5023, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.181, 0.188]', 'Market': 0.147, 'N market': 272, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.129, 0.167]', 'Overall': 0.166, 'N': 5295, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.156, 0.176]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '59%', 'Peer': 0.142, 'BSS': 0.008}, {'Rank': 33, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Google', 'Model': 'Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.199, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.192, 0.207]', 'Market': 0.132, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.1, 0.168]', 'Overall': 0.166, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.149, 0.184]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '59%', 'Peer': 0.117, 'BSS': 0.02}, {'Rank': 35, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Meta', 'Model': 'Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.219, 'N dataset': 6468, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.215, 0.223]', 'Market': 0.116, 'N market': 420, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.099, 0.133]', 'Overall': 0.167, 'N': 6888, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.159, 0.176]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '59%', 'Peer': 0.142, 'BSS': 0.009}, {'Rank': 35, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-5-Mini-2025-08-07 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.168, 'N dataset': 680, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.159, 0.177]', 'Market': 0.167, 'N market': 31, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.104, 0.239]', 'Overall': 0.167, 'N': 711, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.135, 0.204]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.99', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '59%', 'Peer': 0.137, 'BSS': 0.002}, {'Rank': 37, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-4o-2024-05-13 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.215, 'N dataset': 6434, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.212, 0.219]', 'Market': 0.125, 'N market': 386, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.109, 0.142]', 'Overall': 0.17, 'N': 6820, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.162, 0.179]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '59%', 'Peer': 0.137, 'BSS': 0.008}, {'Rank': 37, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Meta', 'Model': 'Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.201, 'N dataset': 6468, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.198, 0.204]', 'Market': 0.138, 'N market': 420, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.125, 0.152]', 'Overall': 0.17, 'N': 6888, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.163, 0.177]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '59%', 'Peer': 0.139, 'BSS': 0.007}, {'Rank': 37, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.207, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.198, 0.215]', 'Market': 0.134, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.104, 0.164]', 'Overall': 0.17, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.155, 0.186]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '59%', 'Peer': 0.112, 'BSS': 0.015}, {'Rank': 40, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Google', 'Model': 'Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.211, 'N dataset': 1835, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.203, 0.218]', 'Market': 0.132, 'N market': 122, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.111, 0.155]', 'Overall': 0.171, 'N': 1957, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.16, 0.183]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '59%', 'Peer': 0.142, 'BSS': 0.009}, {'Rank': 41, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-4o (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.209, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.2, 0.219]', 'Market': 0.137, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.108, 0.168]', 'Overall': 0.173, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.158, 0.189]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '58%', 'Peer': 0.109, 'BSS': 0.012}, {'Rank': 42, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Meta', 'Model': 'Llama-4-Scout-17B-16E-Instruct (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.23, 'N dataset': 4378, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.226, 0.235]', 'Market': 0.117, 'N market': 257, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.1, 0.135]', 'Overall': 0.174, 'N': 4635, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.165, 0.183]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '58%', 'Peer': 0.13, 'BSS': 0.005}, {'Rank': 43, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Qwen', 'Model': 'Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.215, 'N dataset': 1848, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.209, 0.221]', 'Market': 0.135, 'N market': 103, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.104, 0.167]', 'Overall': 0.175, 'N': 1951, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.159, 0.192]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '58%', 'Peer': 0.121, 'BSS': 0.001}, {'Rank': 44, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Meta', 'Model': 'Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.224, 'N dataset': 2174, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.217, 0.231]', 'Market': 0.129, 'N market': 167, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.094, 0.168]', 'Overall': 0.176, 'N': 2341, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.158, 0.195]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '58%', 'Peer': 0.114, 'BSS': 0.005}, {'Rank': 45, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Moonshot', 'Model': 'Kimi-K2-Instruct (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.198, 'N dataset': 2039, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.191, 0.206]', 'Market': 0.155, 'N market': 101, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.113, 0.199]', 'Overall': 0.177, 'N': 2140, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.155, 0.199]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '58%', 'Peer': 0.142, 'BSS': -0.005}, {'Rank': 45, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'ForecastBench', 'Model': 'Naive Forecaster', 'Dataset': 0.299, 'N dataset': 11593, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.294, 0.303]', 'Market': 0.055, 'N market': 740, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.046, 0.065]', 'Overall': 0.177, 'N': 12333, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.172, 0.182]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '58%', 'Peer': 0.13, 'BSS': 0.0}, {'Rank': 45, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.197, 'N dataset': 929, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.191, 0.203]', 'Market': 0.158, 'N market': 67, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.126, 0.192]', 'Overall': 0.177, 'N': 996, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.161, 0.195]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '58%', 'Peer': 0.138, 'BSS': -0.007}, {'Rank': 45, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-Opus-4-20250514 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.172, 'N dataset': 681, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.163, 0.18]', 'Market': 0.182, 'N market': 33, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.121, 0.252]', 'Overall': 0.177, 'N': 714, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.146, 0.211]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '58%', 'Peer': 0.15, 'BSS': 0.001}, {'Rank': 49, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.197, 'N dataset': 4934, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.193, 0.201]', 'Market': 0.159, 'N market': 322, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.137, 0.182]', 'Overall': 0.178, 'N': 5256, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.167, 0.19]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '58%', 'Peer': 0.119, 'BSS': 0.001}, {'Rank': 49, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-4-0613 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.214, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.205, 0.222]', 'Market': 0.143, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.117, 0.17]', 'Overall': 0.178, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.165, 0.192]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '58%', 'Peer': 0.104, 'BSS': 0.007}, {'Rank': 49, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-4o (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.225, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.215, 0.236]', 'Market': 0.131, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.096, 0.167]', 'Overall': 0.178, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.16, 0.197]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '58%', 'Peer': 0.104, 'BSS': 0.007}, {'Rank': 52, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Mistral', 'Model': 'Mistral-Large-2407 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.215, 'N dataset': 6434, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.212, 0.218]', 'Market': 0.144, 'N market': 386, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.126, 0.161]', 'Overall': 0.179, 'N': 6820, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.17, 0.188]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '58%', 'Peer': 0.128, 'BSS': -0.001}, {'Rank': 53, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Qwen', 'Model': 'Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.207, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.2, 0.215]', 'Market': 0.152, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.126, 0.18]', 'Overall': 0.18, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.166, 0.195]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '58%', 'Peer': 0.103, 'BSS': 0.005}, {'Rank': 54, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.201, 'N dataset': 4934, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.197, 0.205]', 'Market': 0.168, 'N market': 322, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.151, 0.186]', 'Overall': 0.185, 'N': 5256, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.176, 0.194]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '57%', 'Peer': 0.112, 'BSS': -0.006}, {'Rank': 55, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Mistral AI', 'Model': 'Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.215, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.206, 0.223]', 'Market': 0.158, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.129, 0.189]', 'Overall': 0.186, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.171, 0.203]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '57%', 'Peer': 0.096, 'BSS': -0.001}, {'Rank': 56, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-4-0613 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.21, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.201, 0.219]', 'Market': 0.164, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.135, 0.193]', 'Overall': 0.187, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.173, 0.202]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '57%', 'Peer': 0.096, 'BSS': -0.001}, {'Rank': 57, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Z.ai', 'Model': 'GLM-4.5-Air-FP8 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.197, 'N dataset': 680, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.184, 0.21]', 'Market': 0.179, 'N market': 31, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.117, 0.25]', 'Overall': 0.188, 'N': 711, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.157, 0.224]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '57%', 'Peer': 0.116, 'BSS': -0.019}, {'Rank': 58, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Mistral AI', 'Model': 'Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.22, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.212, 0.229]', 'Market': 0.16, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.133, 0.189]', 'Overall': 0.19, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.176, 0.206]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '57%', 'Peer': 0.092, 'BSS': -0.005}, {'Rank': 59, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Google', 'Model': 'Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.25, 'N dataset': 1835, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.241, 0.259]', 'Market': 0.131, 'N market': 122, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.101, 0.164]', 'Overall': 0.191, 'N': 1957, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.175, 0.208]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '57%', 'Peer': 0.123, 'BSS': -0.011}, {'Rank': 59, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Qwen', 'Model': 'Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.22, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.212, 0.228]', 'Market': 0.163, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.132, 0.194]', 'Overall': 0.191, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.175, 0.207]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '57%', 'Peer': 0.091, 'BSS': -0.006}, {'Rank': 61, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Meta', 'Model': 'Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.229, 'N dataset': 3086, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.224, 0.235]', 'Market': 0.157, 'N market': 219, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.134, 0.181]', 'Overall': 0.193, 'N': 3305, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.181, 0.206]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '57%', 'Peer': 0.104, 'BSS': -0.013}, {'Rank': 61, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Mistral AI', 'Model': 'Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.241, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.228, 0.254]', 'Market': 0.145, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.103, 0.188]', 'Overall': 0.193, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.171, 0.215]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '57%', 'Peer': 0.09, 'BSS': -0.007}, {'Rank': 61, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Google', 'Model': 'Gemini-2.5-Flash (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.17, 'N dataset': 680, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.159, 0.181]', 'Market': 0.216, 'N market': 31, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.122, 0.319]', 'Overall': 0.193, 'N': 711, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.146, 0.245]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '57%', 'Peer': 0.112, 'BSS': -0.024}, {'Rank': 64, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Mistral AI', 'Model': 'Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.233, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.224, 0.243]', 'Market': 0.155, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.119, 0.192]', 'Overall': 0.194, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.175, 0.213]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '56%', 'Peer': 0.089, 'BSS': -0.009}, {'Rank': 65, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Mistral', 'Model': 'Mistral-Large-2411 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.218, 'N dataset': 2039, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.212, 0.225]', 'Market': 0.171, 'N market': 101, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.139, 0.205]', 'Overall': 0.195, 'N': 2140, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.178, 0.212]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '56%', 'Peer': 0.124, 'BSS': -0.023}, {'Rank': 66, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Mistral AI', 'Model': 'Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.234, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.225, 0.244]', 'Market': 0.163, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.127, 0.202]', 'Overall': 0.199, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.18, 0.219]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '56%', 'Peer': 0.084, 'BSS': -0.013}, {'Rank': 67, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-5-Nano-2025-08-07 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.199, 'N dataset': 680, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.185, 0.215]', 'Market': 0.202, 'N market': 31, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.139, 0.277]', 'Overall': 0.201, 'N': 711, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.168, 0.238]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '56%', 'Peer': 0.104, 'BSS': -0.032}, {'Rank': 68, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Google', 'Model': 'Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.242, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.23, 0.254]', 'Market': 0.165, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.133, 0.198]', 'Overall': 0.203, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.186, 0.221]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '55%', 'Peer': 0.079, 'BSS': -0.018}, {'Rank': 69, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-2.1 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.238, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.23, 0.246]', 'Market': 0.176, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.142, 0.211]', 'Overall': 0.207, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.19, 0.225]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '54%', 'Peer': 0.075, 'BSS': -0.022}, {'Rank': 69, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Meta', 'Model': 'Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.23, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.221, 0.239]', 'Market': 0.184, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.157, 0.211]', 'Overall': 0.207, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.193, 0.222]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '55%', 'Peer': 0.076, 'BSS': -0.022}, {'Rank': 71, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Google', 'Model': 'Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.239, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.229, 0.25]', 'Market': 0.193, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.153, 0.234]', 'Overall': 0.216, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.195, 0.237]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '54%', 'Peer': 0.067, 'BSS': -0.03}, {'Rank': 72, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Meta', 'Model': 'Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.256, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.247, 0.266]', 'Market': 0.182, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.151, 0.213]', 'Overall': 0.219, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.203, 0.235]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times ��� 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '53%', 'Peer': 0.063, 'BSS': -0.034}, {'Rank': 73, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.262, 'N dataset': 4934, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.257, 0.267]', 'Market': 0.183, 'N market': 322, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.169, 0.198]', 'Overall': 0.222, 'N': 5256, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.215, 0.23]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '53%', 'Peer': 0.075, 'BSS': -0.044}, {'Rank': 74, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Meta', 'Model': 'Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.262, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.253, 0.27]', 'Market': 0.205, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.17, 0.239]', 'Overall': 0.233, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.216, 0.251]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '52%', 'Peer': 0.049, 'BSS': -0.048}, {'Rank': 75, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.265, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.255, 0.276]', 'Market': 0.214, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.184, 0.246]', 'Overall': 0.24, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.223, 0.257]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '51%', 'Peer': 0.043, 'BSS': -0.054}, {'Rank': 76, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.275, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.265, 0.285]', 'Market': 0.212, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.176, 0.25]', 'Overall': 0.243, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.225, 0.263]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '51%', 'Peer': 0.039, 'BSS': -0.058}, {'Rank': 77, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'ForecastBench', 'Model': 'Always 0.5', 'Dataset': 0.25, 'N dataset': 11593, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.25, 0.25]', 'Market': 0.25, 'N market': 740, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.25, 0.25]', 'Overall': 0.25, 'N': 12333, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.25, 0.25]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '50%', 'Peer': 0.057, 'BSS': -0.073}, {'Rank': 78, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Meta', 'Model': 'Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.282, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.272, 0.292]', 'Market': 0.301, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.258, 0.347]', 'Overall': 0.292, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.27, 0.315]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '46%', 'Peer': -0.009, 'BSS': -0.106}, {'Rank': 79, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'ForecastBench', 'Model': 'Always 0', 'Dataset': 0.426, 'N dataset': 11593, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.417, 0.434]', 'Market': 0.168, 'N market': 740, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.143, 0.193]', 'Overall': 0.297, 'N': 12333, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.284, 0.31]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '46%', 'Peer': 0.01, 'BSS': -0.12}, {'Rank': 80, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'ForecastBench', 'Model': 'Random Uniform', 'Dataset': 0.331, 'N dataset': 11593, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.326, 0.337]', 'Market': 0.332, 'N market': 740, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.311, 0.352]', 'Overall': 0.331, 'N': 12333, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.321, 0.342]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '42%', 'Peer': -0.024, 'BSS': -0.155}, {'Rank': 81, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.426, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.412, 0.44]', 'Market': 0.24, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.193, 0.29]', 'Overall': 0.333, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.309, 0.36]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '42%', 'Peer': -0.051, 'BSS': -0.148}, {'Rank': 82, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'ForecastBench', 'Model': 'Always 1', 'Dataset': 0.574, 'N dataset': 11593, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.566, 0.583]', 'Market': 0.832, 'N market': 740, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.807, 0.857]', 'Overall': 0.703, 'N': 12333, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.69, 0.716]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '16%', 'Peer': -0.396, 'BSS': -0.527}];
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const cols = ["Rank", "Team", "Model Organization", "Model", "Dataset", "N dataset", "Dataset 95% CI", "Market", "N market", "Market 95% CI", "Overall", "N", "Overall 95% CI", "Supers > Forecaster?", "p-val Supers > Forecaster?", "Forecaster > Public?", "p-val Forecaster > Public?", "Pct times \u2116 1", "Pct times top 5%", "x% oracle equiv", "Peer", "BSS"];
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const columns = cols.map(name => {
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const col = { data: name, title: name };
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</head>
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<body>
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<h1>ForecastBench Leaderboard</h1>
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<p class="updated-date">Updated Dec. 31, 2025</p>
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<table id="dataTable" class="ui celled table">
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<thead>
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<tr>
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</table>
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<script>
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$(document).ready(function(){
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const rawData = [{'Rank': 1, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'ForecastBench', 'Model': 'Superforecaster median forecast', 'Dataset': 0.152, 'N dataset': 477, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.141, 0.162]', 'Market': 0.035, 'N market': 54, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.016, 0.053]', 'Overall': 0.093, 'N': 531, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.083, 0.104]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': '—', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '—', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'Yes', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '<0.001', 'Pct times № 1': 94.297, 'Pct times top 5%': 100.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '69%', 'Peer': 0.185, 'BSS': 0.097}, {'Rank': 2, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'ForecastBench', 'Model': 'Public median forecast', 'Dataset': 0.185, 'N dataset': 477, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.171, 0.199]', 'Market': 0.075, 'N market': 54, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.055, 0.097]', 'Overall': 0.13, 'N': 531, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.118, 0.143]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': '—', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '—', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 4.952, 'x% oracle equiv': '64%', 'Peer': 0.148, 'BSS': 0.06}, {'Rank': 2, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Google', 'Model': 'Gemini-2.5-Flash-Preview-04-17 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.167, 'N dataset': 934, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.157, 0.176]', 'Market': 0.094, 'N market': 60, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.063, 0.131]', 'Overall': 0.13, 'N': 994, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.114, 0.15]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.51', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 10.255, 'x% oracle equiv': '64%', 'Peer': 0.17, 'BSS': 0.051}, {'Rank': 4, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'O3-2025-04-16 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.165, 'N dataset': 934, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.158, 0.171]', 'Market': 0.107, 'N market': 60, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.071, 0.151]', 'Overall': 0.136, 'N': 994, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.118, 0.158]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.68', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 2.451, 'x% oracle equiv': '63%', 'Peer': 0.165, 'BSS': 0.046}, {'Rank': 5, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'O3-2025-04-16 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.173, 'N dataset': 934, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.166, 0.18]', 'Market': 0.1, 'N market': 60, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.07, 0.137]', 'Overall': 0.137, 'N': 994, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.121, 0.155]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.73', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.35, 'x% oracle equiv': '63%', 'Peer': 0.164, 'BSS': 0.045}, {'Rank': 6, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.176, 'N dataset': 6468, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.173, 0.179]', 'Market': 0.101, 'N market': 420, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.088, 0.114]', 'Overall': 0.138, 'N': 6888, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.132, 0.145]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.89', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '63%', 'Peer': 0.171, 'BSS': 0.038}, {'Rank': 6, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.175, 'N dataset': 1851, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.171, 0.179]', 'Market': 0.101, 'N market': 135, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.076, 0.129]', 'Overall': 0.138, 'N': 1986, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.126, 0.152]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.82', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.25, 'x% oracle equiv': '63%', 'Peer': 0.182, 'BSS': 0.034}, {'Rank': 8, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.173, 'N dataset': 1851, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.169, 0.178]', 'Market': 0.114, 'N market': 135, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.091, 0.137]', 'Overall': 0.144, 'N': 1986, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.132, 0.155]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.95', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '62%', 'Peer': 0.176, 'BSS': 0.028}, {'Rank': 8, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'xAI', 'Model': 'Grok-beta (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.196, 'N dataset': 1835, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.191, 0.201]', 'Market': 0.093, 'N market': 122, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.07, 0.117]', 'Overall': 0.144, 'N': 1957, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.132, 0.157]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.95', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '62%', 'Peer': 0.169, 'BSS': 0.036}, {'Rank': 10, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'DeepSeek', 'Model': 'DeepSeek-R1 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.174, 'N dataset': 3698, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.171, 0.177]', 'Market': 0.116, 'N market': 249, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.101, 0.132]', 'Overall': 0.145, 'N': 3947, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.137, 0.153]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.98', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '62%', 'Peer': 0.166, 'BSS': 0.033}, {'Rank': 11, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.194, 'N dataset': 6468, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.191, 0.197]', 'Market': 0.103, 'N market': 420, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.089, 0.118]', 'Overall': 0.148, 'N': 6888, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.141, 0.156]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.99', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '61%', 'Peer': 0.161, 'BSS': 0.028}, {'Rank': 12, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Qwen', 'Model': 'QwQ-32B-Preview (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.197, 'N dataset': 1849, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.189, 0.205]', 'Market': 0.102, 'N market': 121, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.08, 0.126]', 'Overall': 0.15, 'N': 1970, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.138, 0.162]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.99', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '61%', 'Peer': 0.153, 'BSS': 0.032}, {'Rank': 13, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.183, 'N dataset': 6468, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.18, 0.186]', 'Market': 0.122, 'N market': 420, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.105, 0.14]', 'Overall': 0.152, 'N': 6888, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.144, 0.162]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '61%', 'Peer': 0.157, 'BSS': 0.024}, {'Rank': 13, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'ForecastBench', 'Model': 'Imputed Forecaster', 'Dataset': 0.25, 'N dataset': 11593, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.25, 0.25]', 'Market': 0.054, 'N market': 740, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.044, 0.064]', 'Overall': 0.152, 'N': 12333, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.147, 0.157]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '61%', 'Peer': 0.155, 'BSS': 0.025}, {'Rank': 13, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.17, 'N dataset': 3207, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.166, 0.175]', 'Market': 0.133, 'N market': 173, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.103, 0.169]', 'Overall': 0.152, 'N': 3380, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.137, 0.17]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.99', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '61%', 'Peer': 0.156, 'BSS': 0.023}, {'Rank': 16, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.193, 'N dataset': 6468, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.191, 0.196]', 'Market': 0.113, 'N market': 420, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.096, 0.131]', 'Overall': 0.153, 'N': 6888, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.144, 0.162]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '61%', 'Peer': 0.156, 'BSS': 0.024}, {'Rank': 16, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.175, 'N dataset': 4141, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.169, 0.181]', 'Market': 0.131, 'N market': 233, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.105, 0.159]', 'Overall': 0.153, 'N': 4374, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.139, 0.167]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.99', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '61%', 'Peer': 0.154, 'BSS': 0.024}, {'Rank': 16, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.173, 'N dataset': 680, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.163, 0.183]', 'Market': 0.132, 'N market': 31, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.08, 0.201]', 'Overall': 0.153, 'N': 711, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.126, 0.187]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.93', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '61%', 'Peer': 0.151, 'BSS': 0.016}, {'Rank': 16, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.181, 'N dataset': 4821, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.176, 0.185]', 'Market': 0.125, 'N market': 264, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.101, 0.153]', 'Overall': 0.153, 'N': 5085, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.141, 0.167]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '61%', 'Peer': 0.153, 'BSS': 0.022}, {'Rank': 20, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Qwen', 'Model': 'Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.165, 'N dataset': 680, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.157, 0.173]', 'Market': 0.144, 'N market': 31, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.066, 0.217]', 'Overall': 0.154, 'N': 711, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.114, 0.191]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.01', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.88', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 3.952, 'x% oracle equiv': '61%', 'Peer': 0.15, 'BSS': 0.015}, {'Rank': 20, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.174, 'N dataset': 680, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.165, 0.183]', 'Market': 0.135, 'N market': 31, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.069, 0.204]', 'Overall': 0.154, 'N': 711, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.12, 0.189]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.01', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.91', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 1.601, 'x% oracle equiv': '61%', 'Peer': 0.15, 'BSS': 0.015}, {'Rank': 22, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.173, 'N dataset': 3207, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.169, 0.178]', 'Market': 0.142, 'N market': 173, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.112, 0.175]', 'Overall': 0.158, 'N': 3380, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.143, 0.174]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '60%', 'Peer': 0.15, 'BSS': 0.017}, {'Rank': 22, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.158, 'N dataset': 680, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.149, 0.167]', 'Market': 0.158, 'N market': 31, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.111, 0.219]', 'Overall': 0.158, 'N': 711, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.134, 0.188]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.98', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '60%', 'Peer': 0.146, 'BSS': 0.011}, {'Rank': 24, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Meta', 'Model': 'Meta-Llama-3.1-405B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.2, 'N dataset': 1848, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.195, 0.205]', 'Market': 0.12, 'N market': 103, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.089, 0.154]', 'Overall': 0.16, 'N': 1951, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.144, 0.177]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '60%', 'Peer': 0.136, 'BSS': 0.016}, {'Rank': 25, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.193, 'N dataset': 3698, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.188, 0.197]', 'Market': 0.13, 'N market': 249, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.111, 0.15]', 'Overall': 0.161, 'N': 3947, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.151, 0.172]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '60%', 'Peer': 0.149, 'BSS': 0.017}, {'Rank': 25, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.193, 'N dataset': 11593, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.191, 0.196]', 'Market': 0.13, 'N market': 740, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.117, 0.143]', 'Overall': 0.161, 'N': 12333, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.155, 0.168]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '60%', 'Peer': 0.146, 'BSS': 0.015}, {'Rank': 25, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.191, 'N dataset': 10915, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.189, 0.194]', 'Market': 0.13, 'N market': 703, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.118, 0.142]', 'Overall': 0.161, 'N': 11618, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.155, 0.167]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '60%', 'Peer': 0.145, 'BSS': 0.016}, {'Rank': 28, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Google', 'Model': 'Gemini-2.5-Pro (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.153, 'N dataset': 680, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.144, 0.161]', 'Market': 0.171, 'N market': 31, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.067, 0.278]', 'Overall': 0.162, 'N': 711, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.109, 0.215]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.01', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.88', 'Pct times № 1': 0.7, 'Pct times top 5%': 5.253, 'x% oracle equiv': '60%', 'Peer': 0.142, 'BSS': 0.007}, {'Rank': 28, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'DeepSeek', 'Model': 'DeepSeek-V3 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.198, 'N dataset': 4620, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.195, 0.202]', 'Market': 0.126, 'N market': 317, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.11, 0.143]', 'Overall': 0.162, 'N': 4937, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.154, 0.171]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '60%', 'Peer': 0.151, 'BSS': 0.015}, {'Rank': 30, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'DeepSeek', 'Model': 'DeepSeek-V3 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.188, 'N dataset': 922, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.183, 0.194]', 'Market': 0.138, 'N market': 68, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.101, 0.175]', 'Overall': 0.163, 'N': 990, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.145, 0.182]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '60%', 'Peer': 0.161, 'BSS': 0.01}, {'Rank': 31, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.199, 'N dataset': 4934, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.195, 0.202]', 'Market': 0.13, 'N market': 322, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.111, 0.148]', 'Overall': 0.164, 'N': 5256, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.155, 0.174]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '59%', 'Peer': 0.133, 'BSS': 0.014}, {'Rank': 31, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-5-2025-08-07 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.157, 'N dataset': 680, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.148, 0.165]', 'Market': 0.17, 'N market': 31, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.094, 0.26]', 'Overall': 0.164, 'N': 711, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.126, 0.209]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.95', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.25, 'x% oracle equiv': '60%', 'Peer': 0.141, 'BSS': 0.006}, {'Rank': 33, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Qwen', 'Model': 'Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.185, 'N dataset': 5023, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.181, 0.188]', 'Market': 0.147, 'N market': 272, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.128, 0.167]', 'Overall': 0.166, 'N': 5295, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.156, 0.176]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '59%', 'Peer': 0.142, 'BSS': 0.008}, {'Rank': 33, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Google', 'Model': 'Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.199, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.192, 0.207]', 'Market': 0.132, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.098, 0.166]', 'Overall': 0.166, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.148, 0.183]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '59%', 'Peer': 0.117, 'BSS': 0.02}, {'Rank': 35, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Meta', 'Model': 'Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.219, 'N dataset': 6468, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.215, 0.222]', 'Market': 0.116, 'N market': 420, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.1, 0.132]', 'Overall': 0.167, 'N': 6888, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.159, 0.176]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '59%', 'Peer': 0.142, 'BSS': 0.009}, {'Rank': 35, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-5-Mini-2025-08-07 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.168, 'N dataset': 680, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.159, 0.177]', 'Market': 0.167, 'N market': 31, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.11, 0.24]', 'Overall': 0.167, 'N': 711, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.138, 0.203]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '0.99', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '59%', 'Peer': 0.137, 'BSS': 0.002}, {'Rank': 37, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-4o-2024-05-13 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.215, 'N dataset': 6434, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.212, 0.219]', 'Market': 0.125, 'N market': 386, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.109, 0.141]', 'Overall': 0.17, 'N': 6820, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.162, 0.179]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '59%', 'Peer': 0.137, 'BSS': 0.008}, {'Rank': 37, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Meta', 'Model': 'Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.201, 'N dataset': 6468, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.198, 0.204]', 'Market': 0.138, 'N market': 420, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.125, 0.153]', 'Overall': 0.17, 'N': 6888, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.163, 0.177]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '59%', 'Peer': 0.139, 'BSS': 0.007}, {'Rank': 37, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.207, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.198, 0.215]', 'Market': 0.134, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.104, 0.164]', 'Overall': 0.17, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.154, 0.186]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '59%', 'Peer': 0.112, 'BSS': 0.015}, {'Rank': 40, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Google', 'Model': 'Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.211, 'N dataset': 1835, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.203, 0.218]', 'Market': 0.132, 'N market': 122, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.112, 0.154]', 'Overall': 0.171, 'N': 1957, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.16, 0.183]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '59%', 'Peer': 0.142, 'BSS': 0.009}, {'Rank': 41, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-4o (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.209, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.2, 0.219]', 'Market': 0.137, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.107, 0.168]', 'Overall': 0.173, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.157, 0.188]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '58%', 'Peer': 0.109, 'BSS': 0.012}, {'Rank': 42, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Meta', 'Model': 'Llama-4-Scout-17B-16E-Instruct (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.23, 'N dataset': 4378, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.226, 0.235]', 'Market': 0.117, 'N market': 257, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.1, 0.136]', 'Overall': 0.174, 'N': 4635, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.165, 0.184]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '58%', 'Peer': 0.13, 'BSS': 0.005}, {'Rank': 43, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Qwen', 'Model': 'Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.215, 'N dataset': 1848, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.209, 0.221]', 'Market': 0.135, 'N market': 103, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.106, 0.168]', 'Overall': 0.175, 'N': 1951, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.16, 0.191]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '58%', 'Peer': 0.121, 'BSS': 0.001}, {'Rank': 44, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Meta', 'Model': 'Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.224, 'N dataset': 2174, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.216, 0.231]', 'Market': 0.129, 'N market': 167, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.095, 0.165]', 'Overall': 0.176, 'N': 2341, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.159, 0.195]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '58%', 'Peer': 0.114, 'BSS': 0.005}, {'Rank': 45, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Moonshot', 'Model': 'Kimi-K2-Instruct (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.198, 'N dataset': 2039, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.192, 0.206]', 'Market': 0.155, 'N market': 101, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.113, 0.199]', 'Overall': 0.177, 'N': 2140, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.155, 0.199]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '58%', 'Peer': 0.142, 'BSS': -0.005}, {'Rank': 45, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'ForecastBench', 'Model': 'Naive Forecaster', 'Dataset': 0.299, 'N dataset': 11593, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.294, 0.303]', 'Market': 0.055, 'N market': 740, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.045, 0.065]', 'Overall': 0.177, 'N': 12333, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.172, 0.182]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '58%', 'Peer': 0.13, 'BSS': 0.0}, {'Rank': 45, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.197, 'N dataset': 929, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.191, 0.203]', 'Market': 0.158, 'N market': 67, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.124, 0.193]', 'Overall': 0.177, 'N': 996, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.161, 0.195]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '58%', 'Peer': 0.138, 'BSS': -0.007}, {'Rank': 45, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-Opus-4-20250514 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.172, 'N dataset': 681, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.163, 0.18]', 'Market': 0.182, 'N market': 33, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.122, 0.252]', 'Overall': 0.177, 'N': 714, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.147, 0.212]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '58%', 'Peer': 0.15, 'BSS': 0.001}, {'Rank': 49, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.197, 'N dataset': 4934, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.193, 0.201]', 'Market': 0.159, 'N market': 322, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.137, 0.182]', 'Overall': 0.178, 'N': 5256, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.167, 0.189]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '58%', 'Peer': 0.119, 'BSS': 0.001}, {'Rank': 49, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-4-0613 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.214, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.205, 0.222]', 'Market': 0.143, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.114, 0.169]', 'Overall': 0.178, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.163, 0.192]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '58%', 'Peer': 0.104, 'BSS': 0.007}, {'Rank': 49, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-4o (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.225, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.214, 0.236]', 'Market': 0.131, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.095, 0.166]', 'Overall': 0.178, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.159, 0.197]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '58%', 'Peer': 0.104, 'BSS': 0.007}, {'Rank': 52, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Mistral', 'Model': 'Mistral-Large-2407 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.215, 'N dataset': 6434, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.212, 0.218]', 'Market': 0.144, 'N market': 386, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.127, 0.161]', 'Overall': 0.179, 'N': 6820, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.171, 0.188]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '58%', 'Peer': 0.128, 'BSS': -0.001}, {'Rank': 53, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Qwen', 'Model': 'Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.207, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.2, 0.215]', 'Market': 0.152, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.125, 0.18]', 'Overall': 0.18, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.166, 0.195]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '58%', 'Peer': 0.103, 'BSS': 0.005}, {'Rank': 54, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.201, 'N dataset': 4934, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.197, 0.205]', 'Market': 0.168, 'N market': 322, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.15, 0.185]', 'Overall': 0.185, 'N': 5256, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.176, 0.194]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '57%', 'Peer': 0.112, 'BSS': -0.006}, {'Rank': 55, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Mistral AI', 'Model': 'Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.215, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.206, 0.224]', 'Market': 0.158, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.124, 0.19]', 'Overall': 0.186, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.169, 0.203]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '57%', 'Peer': 0.096, 'BSS': -0.001}, {'Rank': 56, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-4-0613 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.21, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.201, 0.219]', 'Market': 0.164, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.132, 0.193]', 'Overall': 0.187, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.171, 0.202]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '57%', 'Peer': 0.096, 'BSS': -0.001}, {'Rank': 57, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Z.ai', 'Model': 'GLM-4.5-Air-FP8 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.197, 'N dataset': 680, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.185, 0.21]', 'Market': 0.179, 'N market': 31, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.115, 0.251]', 'Overall': 0.188, 'N': 711, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.156, 0.225]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '57%', 'Peer': 0.116, 'BSS': -0.019}, {'Rank': 58, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Mistral AI', 'Model': 'Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.22, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.212, 0.229]', 'Market': 0.16, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.131, 0.189]', 'Overall': 0.19, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.175, 0.205]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '57%', 'Peer': 0.092, 'BSS': -0.005}, {'Rank': 59, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Google', 'Model': 'Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.25, 'N dataset': 1835, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.241, 0.26]', 'Market': 0.131, 'N market': 122, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.099, 0.166]', 'Overall': 0.191, 'N': 1957, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.174, 0.208]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '57%', 'Peer': 0.123, 'BSS': -0.011}, {'Rank': 59, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Qwen', 'Model': 'Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.22, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.212, 0.228]', 'Market': 0.163, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.131, 0.194]', 'Overall': 0.191, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.175, 0.208]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '57%', 'Peer': 0.091, 'BSS': -0.006}, {'Rank': 61, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Meta', 'Model': 'Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.229, 'N dataset': 3086, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.224, 0.235]', 'Market': 0.157, 'N market': 219, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.133, 0.181]', 'Overall': 0.193, 'N': 3305, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.181, 0.206]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '57%', 'Peer': 0.104, 'BSS': -0.013}, {'Rank': 61, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Mistral AI', 'Model': 'Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.241, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.227, 0.254]', 'Market': 0.145, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.104, 0.187]', 'Overall': 0.193, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.171, 0.215]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '57%', 'Peer': 0.09, 'BSS': -0.007}, {'Rank': 61, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Google', 'Model': 'Gemini-2.5-Flash (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.17, 'N dataset': 680, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.159, 0.181]', 'Market': 0.216, 'N market': 31, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.127, 0.32]', 'Overall': 0.193, 'N': 711, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.148, 0.246]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '57%', 'Peer': 0.112, 'BSS': -0.024}, {'Rank': 64, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Mistral AI', 'Model': 'Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.233, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.224, 0.243]', 'Market': 0.155, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.117, 0.193]', 'Overall': 0.194, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.174, 0.214]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '56%', 'Peer': 0.089, 'BSS': -0.009}, {'Rank': 65, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Mistral', 'Model': 'Mistral-Large-2411 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.218, 'N dataset': 2039, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.211, 0.225]', 'Market': 0.171, 'N market': 101, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.14, 0.205]', 'Overall': 0.195, 'N': 2140, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.179, 0.212]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '56%', 'Peer': 0.124, 'BSS': -0.023}, {'Rank': 66, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Mistral AI', 'Model': 'Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.234, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.225, 0.244]', 'Market': 0.163, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.127, 0.202]', 'Overall': 0.199, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.18, 0.219]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '56%', 'Peer': 0.084, 'BSS': -0.013}, {'Rank': 67, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-5-Nano-2025-08-07 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.199, 'N dataset': 680, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.184, 0.214]', 'Market': 0.202, 'N market': 31, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.141, 0.277]', 'Overall': 0.201, 'N': 711, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.169, 0.239]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '56%', 'Peer': 0.104, 'BSS': -0.032}, {'Rank': 68, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Google', 'Model': 'Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.242, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.23, 0.253]', 'Market': 0.165, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.132, 0.197]', 'Overall': 0.203, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.185, 0.221]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '55%', 'Peer': 0.079, 'BSS': -0.018}, {'Rank': 69, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-2.1 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.238, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.231, 0.246]', 'Market': 0.176, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.141, 0.212]', 'Overall': 0.207, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.189, 0.225]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '54%', 'Peer': 0.075, 'BSS': -0.022}, {'Rank': 69, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Meta', 'Model': 'Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.23, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.221, 0.239]', 'Market': 0.184, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.154, 0.211]', 'Overall': 0.207, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.192, 0.221]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '55%', 'Peer': 0.076, 'BSS': -0.022}, {'Rank': 71, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Google', 'Model': 'Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.239, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.228, 0.25]', 'Market': 0.193, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.151, 0.235]', 'Overall': 0.216, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.194, 0.237]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '54%', 'Peer': 0.067, 'BSS': -0.03}, {'Rank': 72, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Meta', 'Model': 'Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.256, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.247, 0.266]', 'Market': 0.182, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.15, 0.212]', 'Overall': 0.219, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.202, 0.235]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '53%', 'Peer': 0.063, 'BSS': -0.034}, {'Rank': 73, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.262, 'N dataset': 4934, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.257, 0.267]', 'Market': 0.183, 'N market': 322, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.169, 0.197]', 'Overall': 0.222, 'N': 5256, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.215, 0.23]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '53%', 'Peer': 0.075, 'BSS': -0.044}, {'Rank': 74, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Meta', 'Model': 'Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.262, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.254, 0.27]', 'Market': 0.205, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.17, 0.238]', 'Overall': 0.233, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.216, 0.25]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '52%', 'Peer': 0.049, 'BSS': -0.048}, {'Rank': 75, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Anthropic', 'Model': 'Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.265, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.255, 0.275]', 'Market': 0.214, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.181, 0.246]', 'Overall': 0.24, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.222, 0.256]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '51%', 'Peer': 0.043, 'BSS': -0.054}, {'Rank': 76, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad)', 'Dataset': 0.275, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.265, 0.285]', 'Market': 0.212, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.175, 0.248]', 'Overall': 0.243, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.224, 0.263]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '51%', 'Peer': 0.039, 'BSS': -0.058}, {'Rank': 77, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'ForecastBench', 'Model': 'Always 0.5', 'Dataset': 0.25, 'N dataset': 11593, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.25, 0.25]', 'Market': 0.25, 'N market': 740, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.25, 0.25]', 'Overall': 0.25, 'N': 12333, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.25, 0.25]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '50%', 'Peer': 0.057, 'BSS': -0.073}, {'Rank': 78, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'Meta', 'Model': 'Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.282, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.271, 0.292]', 'Market': 0.301, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.257, 0.345]', 'Overall': 0.292, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.269, 0.314]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '46%', 'Peer': -0.009, 'BSS': -0.106}, {'Rank': 79, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'ForecastBench', 'Model': 'Always 0', 'Dataset': 0.426, 'N dataset': 11593, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.418, 0.434]', 'Market': 0.168, 'N market': 740, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.145, 0.195]', 'Overall': 0.297, 'N': 12333, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.284, 0.31]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '46%', 'Peer': 0.01, 'BSS': -0.12}, {'Rank': 80, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'ForecastBench', 'Model': 'Random Uniform', 'Dataset': 0.331, 'N dataset': 11593, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.326, 0.337]', 'Market': 0.332, 'N market': 740, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.312, 0.352]', 'Overall': 0.331, 'N': 12333, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.321, 0.342]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '42%', 'Peer': -0.024, 'BSS': -0.155}, {'Rank': 81, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'OpenAI', 'Model': 'GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot)', 'Dataset': 0.426, 'N dataset': 1269, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.413, 0.439]', 'Market': 0.24, 'N market': 118, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.194, 0.289]', 'Overall': 0.333, 'N': 1387, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.309, 0.358]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '42%', 'Peer': -0.051, 'BSS': -0.148}, {'Rank': 82, 'Team': 'ForecastBench', 'Model Organization': 'ForecastBench', 'Model': 'Always 1', 'Dataset': 0.574, 'N dataset': 11593, 'Dataset 95% CI': '[0.566, 0.582]', 'Market': 0.832, 'N market': 740, 'Market 95% CI': '[0.805, 0.855]', 'Overall': 0.703, 'N': 12333, 'Overall 95% CI': '[0.69, 0.716]', 'Supers > Forecaster?': 'Yes', 'p-val Supers > Forecaster?': '<0.001', 'Forecaster > Public?': 'No', 'p-val Forecaster > Public?': '1.00', 'Pct times № 1': 0.0, 'Pct times top 5%': 0.0, 'x% oracle equiv': '16%', 'Peer': -0.396, 'BSS': -0.527}];
|
| 89 |
const cols = ["Rank", "Team", "Model Organization", "Model", "Dataset", "N dataset", "Dataset 95% CI", "Market", "N market", "Market 95% CI", "Overall", "N", "Overall 95% CI", "Supers > Forecaster?", "p-val Supers > Forecaster?", "Forecaster > Public?", "p-val Forecaster > Public?", "Pct times \u2116 1", "Pct times top 5%", "x% oracle equiv", "Peer", "BSS"];
|
| 90 |
const columns = cols.map(name => {
|
| 91 |
const col = { data: name, title: name };
|