leaderboard: automatic update html & csv files.

leaderboards/csv/human_combo_leaderboard_overall.csv

@@ -8,42 +8,42 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=1,754)",Market Score (resolved) (N=
 7,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with freeze values),0.152,0.158,0.077,0.13,0.155,0.141,[0.13  0.152],<0.001,21%,0%
 8,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.154,0.164,0.075,0.133,0.159,0.143,[0.133 0.154],<0.001,21%,1%
 9,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.16,0.158,0.078,0.13,0.159,0.145,[0.132 0.158],<0.001,20%,0%
-10,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot with freeze values),0.174,0.148,0.064,0.119,0.161,0.146,[0.133 0.16 ],<0.001,22%,0%
+10,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot with freeze values),0.174,0.148,0.065,0.119,0.161,0.146,[0.133 0.16 ],<0.001,22%,0%
 11,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad),0.152,0.172,0.089,0.143,0.162,0.148,[0.137 0.158],<0.001,20%,1%
 12,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad),0.164,0.154,0.091,0.132,0.159,0.148,[0.138 0.158],<0.001,17%,0%
 13,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news),0.154,0.165,0.102,0.143,0.159,0.148,[0.137 0.16 ],<0.001,21%,1%
 14,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad),0.154,0.166,0.099,0.143,0.16,0.149,[0.137 0.16 ],<0.001,20%,0%
 15,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad),0.175,0.144,0.082,0.122,0.159,0.149,[0.138 0.159],<0.001,19%,1%
-16,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with freeze values),0.173,0.162,0.054,0.124,0.167,0.149,[0.135 0.162],<0.001,21%,0%
+16,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with freeze values),0.173,0.162,0.055,0.124,0.167,0.149,[0.135 0.162],<0.001,21%,0%
 17,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news),0.171,0.146,0.092,0.127,0.159,0.149,[0.138 0.16 ],<0.001,18%,0%
-18,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with freeze values),0.2,0.125,0.052,0.1,0.163,0.15,[0.138 0.162],<0.001,24%,0%
+18,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with freeze values),0.2,0.125,0.053,0.1,0.163,0.15,[0.138 0.162],<0.001,24%,0%
 19,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with freeze values),0.171,0.16,0.078,0.131,0.165,0.151,[0.14  0.162],<0.001,16%,1%
 20,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news),0.16,0.174,0.103,0.149,0.167,0.154,[0.143 0.166],<0.001,19%,0%
-21,ForecastBench,Imputed Forecaster,0.25,0.073,0.034,0.059,0.161,0.155,[0.147 0.163],<0.001,22%,100%
-22,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot with freeze values),0.213,0.125,0.052,0.099,0.169,0.156,[0.144 0.168],<0.001,21%,0%
-23,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot with freeze values),0.205,0.125,0.082,0.11,0.165,0.157,[0.144 0.171],<0.001,20%,15%
-24,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 3),0.167,0.181,0.088,0.149,0.174,0.158,[0.146 0.169],<0.001,17%,2%
+21,ForecastBench,Imputed Forecaster,0.25,0.073,0.035,0.059,0.161,0.155,[0.147 0.163],<0.001,22%,100%
+22,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot with freeze values),0.213,0.125,0.052,0.1,0.169,0.156,[0.144 0.168],<0.001,21%,0%
+23,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot with freeze values),0.205,0.125,0.082,0.11,0.165,0.158,[0.144 0.171],<0.001,20%,15%
+24,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 3),0.167,0.181,0.088,0.149,0.174,0.158,[0.146 0.17 ],<0.001,17%,2%
 25,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.19,0.158,0.064,0.125,0.174,0.158,[0.145 0.171],<0.001,19%,1%
 26,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.185,0.161,0.084,0.134,0.173,0.159,[0.148 0.171],<0.001,18%,0%
-27,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.241,0.097,0.05,0.08,0.169,0.161,[0.153 0.168],<0.001,18%,76%
+27,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.241,0.097,0.05,0.081,0.169,0.161,[0.153 0.169],<0.001,18%,76%
 28,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.209,0.132,0.081,0.114,0.17,0.161,[0.149 0.173],<0.001,20%,0%
-29,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.242,0.1,0.05,0.083,0.171,0.162,[0.155 0.17 ],<0.001,18%,76%
+29,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.242,0.1,0.051,0.083,0.171,0.162,[0.155 0.17 ],<0.001,18%,76%
 30,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.243,0.099,0.05,0.082,0.171,0.162,[0.155 0.17 ],<0.001,18%,76%
 31,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3),0.176,0.176,0.106,0.151,0.176,0.164,[0.153 0.175],<0.001,19%,1%
 32,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with freeze values),0.185,0.166,0.1,0.143,0.176,0.164,[0.154 0.175],<0.001,16%,0%
 33,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad),0.19,0.169,0.086,0.14,0.18,0.165,[0.156 0.174],<0.001,15%,1%
 34,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad),0.171,0.187,0.111,0.161,0.179,0.166,[0.156 0.175],<0.001,15%,0%
-35,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot),0.205,0.136,0.113,0.128,0.171,0.167,[0.154 0.179],<0.001,19%,15%
-36,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with freeze values),0.179,0.182,0.103,0.154,0.18,0.167,[0.153 0.18 ],<0.001,18%,0%
+35,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot),0.205,0.136,0.114,0.128,0.171,0.167,[0.154 0.179],<0.001,19%,15%
+36,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with freeze values),0.179,0.182,0.104,0.154,0.18,0.167,[0.153 0.18 ],<0.001,18%,0%
 37,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad),0.228,0.117,0.084,0.105,0.172,0.167,[0.157 0.177],<0.001,20%,24%
-38,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.205,0.168,0.065,0.132,0.186,0.168,[0.155 0.182],<0.001,19%,0%
-39,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.208,0.156,0.078,0.129,0.182,0.169,[0.158 0.179],<0.001,17%,0%
+38,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.205,0.168,0.066,0.132,0.186,0.168,[0.155 0.182],<0.001,19%,0%
+39,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.208,0.156,0.079,0.129,0.182,0.169,[0.158 0.179],<0.001,17%,0%
 40,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot),0.173,0.201,0.098,0.165,0.187,0.169,[0.156 0.183],<0.001,18%,0%
-41,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with freeze values),0.217,0.15,0.069,0.122,0.183,0.169,[0.155 0.183],<0.001,23%,0%
+41,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with freeze values),0.217,0.15,0.069,0.122,0.183,0.169,[0.155 0.184],<0.001,23%,0%
 42,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot),0.2,0.16,0.1,0.139,0.18,0.169,[0.157 0.182],<0.001,19%,1%
 43,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news),0.209,0.149,0.096,0.131,0.179,0.17,[0.159 0.18 ],<0.001,17%,0%
 44,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad),0.179,0.185,0.115,0.161,0.182,0.17,[0.159 0.181],<0.001,16%,0%
-45,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 3),0.202,0.163,0.093,0.139,0.183,0.17,[0.16  0.181],<0.001,17%,9%
+45,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 3),0.202,0.163,0.093,0.139,0.183,0.17,[0.159 0.181],<0.001,17%,9%
 46,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.198,0.172,0.097,0.146,0.185,0.172,[0.161 0.183],<0.001,16%,0%
 47,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot),0.174,0.197,0.122,0.171,0.185,0.172,[0.158 0.187],<0.001,17%,1%
 48,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot with freeze values),0.203,0.184,0.071,0.145,0.194,0.174,[0.16  0.188],<0.001,19%,0%
@@ -88,41 +88,41 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=1,754)",Market Score (resolved) (N=
 87,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 2),0.207,0.218,0.127,0.187,0.213,0.197,[0.184 0.21 ],<0.001,16%,1%
 88,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 3),0.225,0.197,0.121,0.17,0.211,0.198,[0.187 0.209],<0.001,15%,9%
 89,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.234,0.183,0.123,0.163,0.209,0.198,[0.185 0.211],<0.001,17%,19%
-90,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.229,0.21,0.099,0.171,0.219,0.2,[0.189 0.211],<0.001,16%,0%
-91,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.207,0.222,0.14,0.193,0.214,0.2,[0.186 0.214],<0.001,16%,0%
+90,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.207,0.222,0.14,0.193,0.214,0.2,[0.186 0.214],<0.001,16%,0%
+91,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.229,0.21,0.099,0.171,0.219,0.2,[0.189 0.211],<0.001,16%,0%
 92,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.224,0.194,0.164,0.184,0.209,0.204,[0.188 0.219],<0.001,18%,0%
 93,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.26,0.181,0.099,0.153,0.22,0.206,[0.19  0.222],<0.001,23%,0%
 94,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot),0.217,0.212,0.166,0.196,0.214,0.206,[0.192 0.221],<0.001,18%,1%
 95,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.236,0.203,0.13,0.178,0.22,0.207,[0.193 0.221],<0.001,18%,11%
 96,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 2),0.242,0.21,0.115,0.177,0.226,0.21,[0.195 0.225],<0.001,18%,0%
 97,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.265,0.189,0.099,0.157,0.227,0.211,[0.197 0.225],<0.001,20%,21%
-98,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.242,0.209,0.13,0.181,0.226,0.212,[0.2   0.223],<0.001,15%,0%
+98,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.242,0.209,0.13,0.182,0.226,0.212,[0.2   0.224],<0.001,15%,0%
 99,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 2),0.246,0.21,0.119,0.178,0.228,0.212,[0.198 0.226],<0.001,18%,8%
 100,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.27,0.168,0.129,0.154,0.219,0.212,[0.201 0.223],<0.001,18%,17%
 101,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.246,0.216,0.111,0.179,0.231,0.213,[0.203 0.223],<0.001,16%,1%
-102,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 2),0.243,0.224,0.115,0.186,0.233,0.214,[0.203 0.225],<0.001,16%,4%
-103,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news),0.242,0.218,0.127,0.186,0.23,0.214,[0.203 0.225],<0.001,15%,0%
-104,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.244,0.214,0.132,0.186,0.229,0.215,[0.198 0.231],<0.001,18%,0%
-105,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 2),0.257,0.21,0.112,0.176,0.234,0.216,[0.203 0.23 ],<0.001,18%,5%
+102,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news),0.242,0.218,0.127,0.186,0.23,0.214,[0.203 0.225],<0.001,15%,0%
+103,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 2),0.243,0.224,0.115,0.186,0.233,0.214,[0.203 0.225],<0.001,16%,4%
+104,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.244,0.214,0.133,0.186,0.229,0.215,[0.198 0.231],<0.001,18%,0%
+105,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 2),0.257,0.21,0.112,0.176,0.234,0.217,[0.203 0.23 ],<0.001,18%,5%
 106,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.257,0.218,0.104,0.178,0.237,0.217,[0.205 0.23 ],<0.001,18%,10%
 107,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.274,0.199,0.103,0.165,0.237,0.22,[0.206 0.233],<0.001,19%,24%
 108,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 1),0.237,0.234,0.144,0.203,0.236,0.22,[0.206 0.234],<0.001,15%,20%
-109,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 2),0.231,0.244,0.159,0.215,0.237,0.223,[0.209 0.236],<0.001,15%,9%
+109,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 2),0.231,0.244,0.16,0.215,0.237,0.223,[0.209 0.236],<0.001,15%,9%
 110,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.295,0.175,0.123,0.157,0.235,0.226,[0.212 0.239],<0.001,18%,17%
 111,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.291,0.17,0.144,0.161,0.231,0.226,[0.214 0.238],<0.001,18%,14%
-112,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 1),0.248,0.232,0.159,0.207,0.24,0.227,[0.213 0.242],<0.001,15%,25%
+112,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 1),0.248,0.232,0.16,0.207,0.24,0.227,[0.213 0.242],<0.001,15%,25%
 113,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.291,0.186,0.123,0.164,0.238,0.228,[0.215 0.24 ],<0.001,17%,15%
 114,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot),0.244,0.24,0.158,0.211,0.242,0.228,[0.215 0.24 ],<0.001,15%,0%
 115,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 3),0.267,0.217,0.137,0.189,0.242,0.228,[0.216 0.239],<0.001,15%,5%
 116,ForecastBench,Always 0.5,0.25,0.25,0.133,0.209,0.25,0.23,[0.225 0.234],<0.001,14%,0%
-117,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.262,0.234,0.134,0.199,0.248,0.23,[0.22  0.241],<0.001,16%,1%
+117,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.262,0.234,0.134,0.199,0.248,0.231,[0.22  0.241],<0.001,16%,1%
 118,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.289,0.197,0.129,0.173,0.243,0.231,[0.218 0.244],<0.001,20%,20%
 119,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.272,0.222,0.137,0.192,0.247,0.232,[0.22  0.244],<0.001,15%,0%
 120,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.26,0.234,0.159,0.208,0.247,0.234,[0.216 0.251],<0.001,19%,0%
-121,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot with freeze values),0.28,0.226,0.123,0.19,0.253,0.235,[0.222 0.247],<0.001,15%,1%
-122,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.262,0.249,0.138,0.211,0.255,0.236,[0.226 0.246],<0.001,16%,1%
+121,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot with freeze values),0.28,0.226,0.123,0.19,0.253,0.235,[0.222 0.248],<0.001,15%,1%
+122,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.262,0.249,0.139,0.211,0.255,0.236,[0.226 0.246],<0.001,16%,1%
 123,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.27,0.248,0.14,0.21,0.259,0.24,[0.229 0.252],<0.001,14%,1%
-124,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.272,0.246,0.149,0.212,0.259,0.242,[0.231 0.252],<0.001,15%,0%
+124,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.272,0.246,0.149,0.212,0.259,0.242,[0.231 0.253],<0.001,15%,0%
 125,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad),0.27,0.262,0.137,0.218,0.266,0.244,[0.235 0.254],<0.001,15%,1%
 126,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 2),0.263,0.271,0.14,0.226,0.267,0.244,[0.233 0.256],<0.001,15%,5%
 127,ForecastBench,Always 0,0.269,0.218,0.231,0.222,0.243,0.246,[0.221 0.27 ],<0.001,46%,0%
@@ -132,10 +132,10 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=1,754)",Market Score (resolved) (N=
 131,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.288,0.269,0.166,0.233,0.278,0.261,[0.25  0.271],<0.001,14%,0%
 132,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news),0.305,0.262,0.135,0.218,0.283,0.261,[0.251 0.271],<0.001,15%,1%
 133,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad),0.288,0.291,0.162,0.246,0.289,0.267,[0.256 0.278],<0.001,15%,0%
-134,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.304,0.288,0.189,0.254,0.296,0.279,[0.262 0.296],<0.001,17%,0%
+134,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.304,0.288,0.19,0.254,0.296,0.279,[0.262 0.296],<0.001,17%,0%
 135,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 1),0.29,0.321,0.168,0.268,0.306,0.279,[0.265 0.292],<0.001,15%,6%
 136,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.304,0.337,0.186,0.284,0.32,0.294,[0.281 0.307],<0.001,16%,1%
 137,ForecastBench,Random Uniform,0.34,0.311,0.191,0.269,0.325,0.304,[0.287 0.322],<0.001,18%,0%
 138,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot with freeze values),0.446,0.257,0.172,0.227,0.351,0.337,[0.318 0.355],<0.001,20%,0%
 139,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot),0.446,0.32,0.2,0.279,0.383,0.362,[0.346 0.378],<0.001,17%,0%
-140,ForecastBench,Always 1,0.731,0.782,0.536,0.696,0.757,0.714,[0.688 0.74 ],<0.001,20%,0%
+140,ForecastBench,Always 1,0.731,0.782,0.536,0.697,0.757,0.714,[0.688 0.74 ],<0.001,20%,0%

leaderboards/csv/human_leaderboard_overall.csv

@@ -1,27 +1,27 @@
 Ranking,Organization,Model,Dataset Score (N=422),Market Score (resolved) (N=49),Market Score (unresolved) (N=27),Market Score (overall) (N=76),Overall Resolved Score (N=471),Overall Score (N=498),Overall Score 95% CI,Pairwise p-value comparing to No. 1 (bootstrapped),Pct. more accurate than No. 1,Pct. Imputed
-1,ForecastBench,Superforecaster median forecast,0.118,0.084,0.058,0.074,0.101,0.096,[0.076 0.116],,0%,0%
+1,ForecastBench,Superforecaster median forecast,0.118,0.084,0.057,0.074,0.101,0.096,[0.076 0.116],,0%,0%
 2,ForecastBench,Public median forecast,0.153,0.127,0.021,0.089,0.14,0.121,[0.101 0.141],<0.001,22%,0%
 3,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.138,0.153,0.023,0.107,0.145,0.122,[0.099 0.146],<0.001,31%,0%
 4,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.142,0.155,0.035,0.112,0.148,0.127,[0.104 0.15 ],<0.001,29%,0%
-5,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with freeze values),0.162,0.136,0.02,0.095,0.149,0.128,[0.105 0.151],<0.001,32%,0%
+5,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with freeze values),0.162,0.136,0.02,0.095,0.149,0.128,[0.106 0.151],<0.001,32%,0%
 6,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot with freeze values),0.145,0.168,0.025,0.117,0.157,0.131,[0.103 0.159],<0.001,31%,0%
 7,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot with freeze values),0.167,0.136,0.024,0.096,0.152,0.132,[0.109 0.155],<0.001,31%,0%
 8,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.162,0.136,0.048,0.105,0.149,0.133,[0.113 0.154],<0.001,25%,0%
 9,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad),0.138,0.179,0.05,0.133,0.158,0.136,[0.113 0.158],<0.001,28%,0%
 10,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with freeze values),0.161,0.153,0.04,0.113,0.157,0.137,[0.115 0.158],<0.001,27%,0%
 11,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news),0.142,0.173,0.072,0.137,0.157,0.139,[0.117 0.161],<0.001,26%,0%
-12,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with freeze values),0.163,0.162,0.031,0.115,0.163,0.139,[0.114 0.164],<0.001,23%,0%
+12,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with freeze values),0.163,0.162,0.031,0.115,0.163,0.139,[0.114 0.165],<0.001,23%,0%
 13,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 3),0.158,0.161,0.054,0.123,0.159,0.14,[0.12  0.161],<0.001,25%,4%
 14,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad),0.161,0.16,0.06,0.125,0.161,0.143,[0.125 0.16 ],<0.001,24%,0%
 15,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 1),0.15,0.18,0.054,0.135,0.165,0.143,[0.12  0.166],<0.001,25%,0%
 16,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news),0.162,0.164,0.056,0.126,0.163,0.144,[0.122 0.165],<0.001,22%,0%
-17,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.16,0.157,0.077,0.129,0.159,0.144,[0.125 0.163],<0.001,23%,0%
+17,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.16,0.157,0.076,0.129,0.159,0.144,[0.125 0.163],<0.001,23%,0%
 18,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot with freeze values),0.173,0.164,0.031,0.117,0.168,0.145,[0.121 0.169],<0.001,23%,0%
 19,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.163,0.166,0.064,0.13,0.164,0.146,[0.127 0.165],<0.001,23%,1%
-20,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad),0.162,0.169,0.063,0.131,0.166,0.147,[0.129 0.164],<0.001,23%,1%
+20,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad),0.162,0.169,0.062,0.131,0.166,0.147,[0.129 0.164],<0.001,23%,1%
 21,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with freeze values),0.161,0.167,0.072,0.133,0.164,0.147,[0.129 0.165],<0.001,22%,0%
 22,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot),0.162,0.174,0.069,0.137,0.168,0.149,[0.129 0.17 ],<0.001,23%,0%
-23,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.176,0.155,0.066,0.123,0.166,0.15,[0.126 0.173],<0.001,26%,0%
+23,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.176,0.155,0.066,0.124,0.166,0.15,[0.126 0.173],<0.001,26%,0%
 24,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.174,0.171,0.046,0.126,0.172,0.15,[0.13 0.17],<0.001,21%,1%
 25,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with freeze values),0.162,0.168,0.082,0.138,0.165,0.15,[0.132 0.169],<0.001,22%,0%
 26,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot),0.145,0.194,0.085,0.155,0.17,0.15,[0.123 0.177],<0.001,24%,0%
@@ -29,7 +29,7 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,Dataset Score (N=422),Market Score (resolved) (N=49),
 28,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 1),0.157,0.192,0.067,0.147,0.174,0.152,[0.131 0.174],<0.001,22%,1%
 29,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.178,0.137,0.112,0.128,0.157,0.153,[0.13  0.175],<0.001,25%,1%
 30,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot with freeze values),0.197,0.158,0.02,0.109,0.178,0.153,[0.128 0.178],<0.001,26%,0%
-31,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.191,0.154,0.047,0.116,0.172,0.153,[0.135 0.171],<0.001,25%,0%
+31,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.191,0.154,0.047,0.116,0.172,0.153,[0.136 0.171],<0.001,25%,0%
 32,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.181,0.169,0.052,0.127,0.175,0.154,[0.137 0.172],<0.001,21%,0%
 33,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad),0.176,0.169,0.066,0.133,0.173,0.154,[0.137 0.171],<0.001,23%,0%
 34,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot with freeze values),0.185,0.173,0.036,0.124,0.179,0.155,[0.127 0.182],<0.001,25%,0%
@@ -51,8 +51,8 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,Dataset Score (N=422),Market Score (resolved) (N=49),
 50,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot),0.163,0.22,0.072,0.167,0.192,0.165,[0.14  0.191],<0.001,18%,0%
 51,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 3),0.198,0.177,0.056,0.134,0.187,0.166,[0.146 0.186],<0.001,21%,9%
 52,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot),0.167,0.197,0.107,0.165,0.182,0.166,[0.147 0.185],<0.001,22%,0%
-53,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3),0.183,0.179,0.098,0.15,0.181,0.166,[0.147 0.186],<0.001,22%,0%
-54,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.201,0.175,0.059,0.133,0.188,0.167,[0.149 0.186],<0.001,23%,0%
+53,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3),0.183,0.179,0.097,0.15,0.181,0.166,[0.147 0.186],<0.001,22%,0%
+54,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.201,0.175,0.059,0.133,0.188,0.167,[0.149 0.185],<0.001,23%,0%
 55,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.201,0.17,0.073,0.136,0.186,0.168,[0.152 0.185],<0.001,22%,0%
 56,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot),0.197,0.174,0.078,0.14,0.186,0.169,[0.147 0.19 ],<0.001,21%,0%
 57,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news),0.179,0.2,0.088,0.16,0.19,0.17,[0.15  0.189],<0.001,21%,0%
@@ -60,56 +60,56 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,Dataset Score (N=422),Market Score (resolved) (N=49),
 59,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad),0.183,0.201,0.081,0.158,0.192,0.171,[0.152 0.189],<0.001,19%,0%
 60,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.183,0.199,0.09,0.161,0.191,0.172,[0.15  0.193],<0.001,23%,0%
 61,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 3),0.177,0.209,0.091,0.167,0.193,0.172,[0.15  0.194],<0.001,22%,8%
-62,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 2),0.194,0.193,0.073,0.151,0.194,0.172,[0.149 0.195],<0.001,22%,0%
-63,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.206,0.167,0.09,0.139,0.186,0.173,[0.147 0.198],<0.001,23%,0%
+62,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 2),0.194,0.193,0.074,0.151,0.194,0.172,[0.149 0.195],<0.001,22%,0%
+63,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.206,0.167,0.089,0.139,0.186,0.173,[0.147 0.198],<0.001,23%,0%
 64,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 3),0.199,0.18,0.088,0.147,0.19,0.173,[0.151 0.195],<0.001,20%,13%
 65,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.205,0.162,0.112,0.144,0.183,0.174,[0.154 0.195],<0.001,27%,15%
 66,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news),0.183,0.208,0.093,0.167,0.195,0.175,[0.154 0.196],<0.001,22%,0%
 67,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with freeze values),0.214,0.169,0.077,0.136,0.192,0.175,[0.153 0.198],<0.001,18%,0%
 68,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot),0.173,0.205,0.131,0.179,0.189,0.176,[0.15  0.202],<0.001,20%,0%
-69,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.225,0.165,0.062,0.128,0.195,0.177,[0.161 0.192],<0.001,23%,0%
-70,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 2),0.174,0.21,0.125,0.18,0.192,0.177,[0.152 0.202],<0.001,22%,0%
+69,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.225,0.165,0.061,0.128,0.195,0.177,[0.161 0.192],<0.001,23%,0%
+70,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 2),0.174,0.21,0.124,0.179,0.192,0.177,[0.152 0.202],<0.001,22%,0%
 71,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 1),0.203,0.2,0.068,0.153,0.201,0.178,[0.153 0.203],<0.001,22%,0%
 72,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot),0.185,0.215,0.093,0.171,0.2,0.178,[0.15  0.206],<0.001,22%,0%
 73,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.225,0.187,0.03,0.131,0.206,0.178,[0.148 0.208],<0.001,28%,0%
 74,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.201,0.18,0.112,0.156,0.191,0.178,[0.158 0.199],<0.001,22%,0%
 75,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.214,0.165,0.104,0.143,0.189,0.179,[0.161 0.196],<0.001,16%,20%
 76,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot),0.197,0.199,0.093,0.161,0.198,0.179,[0.16  0.199],<0.001,15%,1%
-77,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.214,0.176,0.091,0.146,0.195,0.18,[0.158 0.202],<0.001,22%,4%
+77,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.214,0.176,0.09,0.145,0.195,0.18,[0.158 0.202],<0.001,22%,4%
 78,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 1),0.202,0.204,0.074,0.158,0.203,0.18,[0.153 0.207],<0.001,25%,0%
 79,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.22,0.164,0.099,0.141,0.192,0.181,[0.157 0.204],<0.001,21%,0%
 80,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.236,0.159,0.066,0.126,0.198,0.181,[0.162 0.2  ],<0.001,17%,5%
 81,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.206,0.191,0.094,0.156,0.198,0.181,[0.155 0.208],<0.001,23%,0%
-82,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.212,0.19,0.091,0.155,0.201,0.184,[0.158 0.209],<0.001,21%,0%
+82,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.212,0.19,0.091,0.155,0.201,0.183,[0.158 0.208],<0.001,21%,0%
 83,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.237,0.167,0.065,0.131,0.202,0.184,[0.166 0.202],<0.001,15%,44%
 84,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.237,0.168,0.065,0.131,0.202,0.184,[0.166 0.202],<0.001,16%,44%
-85,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.237,0.168,0.064,0.131,0.203,0.184,[0.166 0.203],<0.001,16%,44%
-86,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news),0.214,0.181,0.106,0.155,0.198,0.184,[0.161 0.207],<0.001,21%,9%
-87,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 1),0.201,0.221,0.07,0.168,0.211,0.185,[0.16  0.209],<0.001,22%,0%
+85,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.237,0.168,0.064,0.131,0.203,0.184,[0.165 0.203],<0.001,16%,44%
+86,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news),0.214,0.181,0.106,0.154,0.198,0.184,[0.161 0.207],<0.001,21%,9%
+87,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 1),0.201,0.221,0.07,0.168,0.211,0.184,[0.16  0.209],<0.001,22%,0%
 88,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 1),0.195,0.218,0.098,0.175,0.207,0.185,[0.16 0.21],<0.001,20%,0%
 89,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.194,0.218,0.102,0.177,0.206,0.186,[0.162 0.209],<0.001,21%,0%
 90,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news),0.201,0.211,0.102,0.172,0.206,0.187,[0.165 0.208],<0.001,21%,0%
 91,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 2),0.229,0.171,0.098,0.145,0.2,0.187,[0.162 0.212],<0.001,23%,1%
 92,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.191,0.22,0.118,0.184,0.206,0.187,[0.171 0.204],<0.001,24%,0%
-93,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.185,0.224,0.13,0.191,0.205,0.188,[0.161 0.215],<0.001,19%,0%
+93,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.185,0.224,0.13,0.19,0.205,0.188,[0.161 0.215],<0.001,19%,0%
 94,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad),0.214,0.195,0.103,0.162,0.204,0.188,[0.167 0.209],<0.001,17%,0%
-95,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot),0.191,0.227,0.121,0.189,0.209,0.19,[0.162 0.217],<0.001,18%,0%
+95,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot),0.191,0.227,0.121,0.189,0.209,0.19,[0.162 0.218],<0.001,18%,0%
 96,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news),0.22,0.182,0.118,0.159,0.201,0.19,[0.168 0.212],<0.001,20%,0%
-97,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 1),0.212,0.208,0.098,0.169,0.21,0.19,[0.165 0.216],<0.001,22%,0%
+97,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 1),0.212,0.208,0.097,0.169,0.21,0.19,[0.165 0.216],<0.001,22%,0%
 98,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 3),0.212,0.213,0.092,0.17,0.213,0.191,[0.171 0.211],<0.001,21%,7%
-99,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.225,0.19,0.11,0.162,0.208,0.193,[0.165 0.222],<0.001,21%,0%
-100,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.251,0.162,0.09,0.137,0.207,0.194,[0.169 0.219],<0.001,29%,22%
+99,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.225,0.19,0.109,0.161,0.208,0.193,[0.165 0.222],<0.001,21%,0%
+100,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.251,0.162,0.091,0.137,0.207,0.194,[0.169 0.219],<0.001,29%,22%
 101,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot),0.221,0.214,0.09,0.17,0.218,0.196,[0.175 0.216],<0.001,19%,0%
 102,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 2),0.217,0.212,0.107,0.175,0.215,0.196,[0.171 0.221],<0.001,25%,2%
-103,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.225,0.224,0.072,0.17,0.224,0.197,[0.18  0.215],<0.001,22%,0%
+103,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.225,0.224,0.071,0.17,0.224,0.197,[0.18  0.215],<0.001,22%,0%
 104,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.235,0.194,0.099,0.16,0.215,0.198,[0.179 0.217],<0.001,23%,2%
 105,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 3),0.231,0.196,0.109,0.165,0.214,0.198,[0.177 0.219],<0.001,21%,9%
-106,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 2),0.209,0.225,0.119,0.187,0.217,0.198,[0.173 0.224],<0.001,21%,1%
-107,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.227,0.195,0.124,0.17,0.211,0.199,[0.176 0.221],<0.001,23%,6%
-108,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.248,0.194,0.073,0.151,0.221,0.2,[0.174 0.226],<0.001,26%,15%
+106,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 2),0.209,0.225,0.119,0.188,0.217,0.198,[0.173 0.224],<0.001,21%,1%
+107,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.227,0.195,0.124,0.17,0.211,0.198,[0.176 0.221],<0.001,23%,6%
+108,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.248,0.194,0.073,0.151,0.221,0.2,[0.174 0.225],<0.001,26%,15%
 109,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.205,0.229,0.15,0.201,0.217,0.203,[0.174 0.232],<0.001,24%,11%
 110,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 2),0.22,0.221,0.123,0.186,0.22,0.203,[0.174 0.232],<0.001,21%,0%
-111,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 2),0.225,0.232,0.096,0.183,0.228,0.204,[0.183 0.226],<0.001,22%,4%
+111,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 2),0.225,0.232,0.096,0.183,0.228,0.204,[0.182 0.226],<0.001,22%,4%
 112,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.233,0.234,0.072,0.177,0.234,0.205,[0.178 0.232],<0.001,25%,1%
 113,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 3),0.236,0.212,0.108,0.175,0.224,0.206,[0.182 0.23 ],<0.001,19%,11%
 114,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.226,0.234,0.098,0.186,0.23,0.206,[0.19  0.222],<0.001,22%,0%
@@ -118,16 +118,16 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,Dataset Score (N=422),Market Score (resolved) (N=49),
 117,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.238,0.231,0.094,0.182,0.234,0.21,[0.191 0.229],<0.001,22%,0%
 118,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 2),0.233,0.221,0.127,0.187,0.227,0.21,[0.191 0.229],<0.001,20%,0%
 119,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.25,0.184,0.152,0.173,0.217,0.211,[0.189 0.233],<0.001,23%,14%
-120,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 1),0.231,0.245,0.103,0.194,0.238,0.213,[0.185 0.241],<0.001,22%,1%
+120,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 1),0.231,0.245,0.102,0.194,0.238,0.213,[0.185 0.241],<0.001,22%,1%
 121,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad),0.238,0.228,0.116,0.188,0.233,0.213,[0.195 0.231],<0.001,22%,0%
 122,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot with freeze values),0.301,0.161,0.07,0.129,0.231,0.215,[0.197 0.233],<0.001,19%,1%
 123,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.226,0.253,0.141,0.213,0.24,0.22,[0.201 0.239],<0.001,22%,1%
-124,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.241,0.235,0.137,0.2,0.238,0.221,[0.195 0.246],<0.001,23%,11%
+124,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.241,0.235,0.136,0.2,0.238,0.221,[0.195 0.246],<0.001,23%,11%
 125,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.26,0.23,0.096,0.183,0.245,0.221,[0.197 0.246],<0.001,23%,4%
 126,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.258,0.241,0.105,0.192,0.249,0.225,[0.206 0.245],<0.001,22%,0%
 127,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.277,0.215,0.105,0.176,0.246,0.226,[0.209 0.244],<0.001,21%,0%
 128,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news),0.277,0.212,0.114,0.177,0.244,0.227,[0.21  0.244],<0.001,21%,0%
-129,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.295,0.192,0.103,0.161,0.244,0.228,[0.204 0.252],<0.001,22%,14%
+129,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.295,0.192,0.104,0.161,0.244,0.228,[0.204 0.252],<0.001,22%,14%
 130,ForecastBench,Always 0.5,0.25,0.25,0.132,0.208,0.25,0.229,[0.22  0.238],<0.001,16%,0%
 131,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad),0.258,0.249,0.127,0.206,0.254,0.232,[0.212 0.252],<0.001,20%,0%
 132,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot),0.301,0.204,0.103,0.168,0.253,0.235,[0.216 0.253],<0.001,18%,1%
@@ -137,5 +137,5 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,Dataset Score (N=422),Market Score (resolved) (N=49),
 136,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot with freeze values),0.422,0.159,0.073,0.128,0.29,0.275,[0.247 0.304],<0.001,29%,0%
 137,ForecastBench,Always 0,0.329,0.286,0.208,0.258,0.308,0.294,[0.242 0.345],<0.001,41%,0%
 138,ForecastBench,Random Uniform,0.357,0.302,0.194,0.264,0.329,0.31,[0.274 0.346],<0.001,22%,0%
-139,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot),0.422,0.256,0.171,0.226,0.339,0.324,[0.293 0.355],<0.001,21%,0%
+139,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot),0.422,0.256,0.17,0.226,0.339,0.324,[0.293 0.355],<0.001,21%,0%
 140,ForecastBench,Always 1,0.671,0.714,0.556,0.658,0.692,0.664,[0.61  0.719],<0.001,26%,0%

leaderboards/csv/leaderboard_overall.csv

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=5,492)",Market Score (resolved) (N=513),Market Score (unresolved) (N=384),Market Score (overall) (N=897),"Overall Resolved Score (N=6,005)","Overall Score (N=6,389)",Overall Score 95% CI,Pairwise p-value comparing to No. 1 (bootstrapped),Pct. more accurate than No. 1,Pct. Imputed
 1,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.169,0.112,0.032,0.078,0.141,0.123,[0.117 0.129],,0%,0%
-2,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.172,0.107,0.044,0.08,0.139,0.126,[0.12  0.132],0.096,43%,0%
+2,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.172,0.107,0.044,0.08,0.139,0.126,[0.12  0.132],0.098,43%,0%
 3,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with freeze values),0.186,0.096,0.034,0.069,0.141,0.128,[0.122 0.133],<0.01,43%,0%
 4,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with freeze values),0.162,0.134,0.068,0.106,0.148,0.134,[0.128 0.139],<0.001,35%,0%
 5,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.19,0.115,0.043,0.084,0.153,0.137,[0.131 0.143],<0.001,39%,0%
@@ -12,16 +12,16 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=5,492)",Market Score (resolved) (N=
 11,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad),0.172,0.144,0.077,0.115,0.158,0.143,[0.138 0.149],<0.001,31%,0%
 12,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with freeze values),0.204,0.112,0.046,0.084,0.158,0.144,[0.137 0.15 ],<0.001,42%,0%
 13,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad),0.169,0.152,0.077,0.12,0.16,0.144,[0.139 0.15 ],<0.001,10%,0%
-14,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad),0.162,0.162,0.084,0.128,0.162,0.145,[0.139 0.151],<0.001,32%,0%
+14,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad),0.162,0.162,0.084,0.129,0.162,0.145,[0.139 0.151],<0.001,32%,0%
 15,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.194,0.134,0.055,0.1,0.164,0.147,[0.141 0.154],<0.001,36%,0%
 16,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news),0.166,0.156,0.092,0.129,0.161,0.147,[0.141 0.153],<0.001,32%,1%
-17,ForecastBench,Imputed Forecaster,0.25,0.065,0.024,0.048,0.158,0.149,[0.145 0.153],<0.001,46%,100%
+17,ForecastBench,Imputed Forecaster,0.25,0.065,0.025,0.048,0.158,0.149,[0.145 0.153],<0.001,46%,100%
 18,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad),0.186,0.147,0.069,0.114,0.167,0.15,[0.144 0.156],<0.001,31%,0%
 19,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot with freeze values),0.217,0.104,0.056,0.083,0.16,0.15,[0.144 0.157],<0.001,39%,17%
 20,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.211,0.113,0.061,0.091,0.162,0.151,[0.145 0.157],<0.001,35%,0%
 21,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news),0.19,0.142,0.075,0.114,0.166,0.152,[0.146 0.158],<0.001,31%,0%
 22,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news),0.184,0.156,0.081,0.124,0.17,0.154,[0.148 0.16 ],<0.001,30%,0%
-23,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot with freeze values),0.222,0.118,0.045,0.087,0.17,0.154,[0.148 0.161],<0.001,38%,0%
+23,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot with freeze values),0.222,0.118,0.045,0.087,0.17,0.155,[0.148 0.161],<0.001,38%,0%
 24,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad),0.176,0.168,0.088,0.134,0.172,0.155,[0.15 0.16],<0.001,28%,0%
 25,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.242,0.09,0.039,0.068,0.166,0.155,[0.151 0.159],<0.001,38%,78%
 26,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.201,0.144,0.068,0.112,0.172,0.156,[0.15  0.162],<0.001,27%,0%
@@ -36,28 +36,28 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=5,492)",Market Score (resolved) (N=
 35,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot),0.204,0.142,0.083,0.117,0.173,0.16,[0.154 0.167],<0.001,32%,0%
 36,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with freeze values),0.194,0.161,0.083,0.128,0.177,0.161,[0.154 0.168],<0.001,32%,0%
 37,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot),0.186,0.168,0.094,0.136,0.177,0.161,[0.154 0.168],<0.001,35%,0%
-38,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 3),0.208,0.144,0.08,0.116,0.176,0.162,[0.156 0.167],<0.001,28%,9%
+38,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 3),0.208,0.144,0.08,0.116,0.176,0.162,[0.157 0.167],<0.001,28%,9%
 39,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news),0.211,0.134,0.087,0.114,0.173,0.163,[0.157 0.168],<0.001,27%,0%
 40,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot),0.192,0.166,0.092,0.134,0.179,0.163,[0.156 0.17 ],<0.001,34%,1%
 41,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.205,0.159,0.073,0.122,0.182,0.164,[0.158 0.17 ],<0.001,26%,0%
 42,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.221,0.141,0.063,0.108,0.181,0.164,[0.159 0.17 ],<0.001,25%,0%
 43,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot with freeze values),0.208,0.162,0.068,0.122,0.185,0.165,[0.157 0.172],<0.001,31%,0%
-44,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with freeze values),0.232,0.128,0.058,0.098,0.18,0.165,[0.158 0.173],<0.001,40%,0%
+44,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with freeze values),0.232,0.128,0.059,0.098,0.18,0.165,[0.158 0.173],<0.001,40%,0%
 45,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.21,0.148,0.084,0.121,0.179,0.165,[0.159 0.172],<0.001,30%,0%
 46,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 3),0.211,0.159,0.078,0.124,0.185,0.168,[0.162 0.173],<0.001,28%,7%
-47,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad),0.237,0.125,0.066,0.1,0.181,0.168,[0.163 0.174],<0.001,38%,22%
+47,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad),0.237,0.125,0.067,0.1,0.181,0.168,[0.163 0.174],<0.001,38%,22%
 48,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad),0.194,0.179,0.102,0.146,0.186,0.17,[0.164 0.176],<0.001,28%,0%
 49,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot with freeze values),0.225,0.146,0.076,0.116,0.186,0.171,[0.163 0.178],<0.001,37%,1%
-50,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad),0.201,0.178,0.092,0.141,0.19,0.171,[0.165 0.177],<0.001,26%,0%
+50,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad),0.201,0.178,0.092,0.142,0.19,0.171,[0.165 0.177],<0.001,26%,0%
 51,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 1),0.216,0.149,0.099,0.128,0.183,0.172,[0.165 0.179],<0.001,32%,0%
 52,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.215,0.156,0.093,0.129,0.186,0.172,[0.166 0.178],<0.001,28%,0%
 53,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot with freeze values),0.227,0.156,0.068,0.118,0.191,0.172,[0.165 0.179],<0.001,32%,1%
 54,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 1),0.211,0.167,0.091,0.134,0.189,0.173,[0.166 0.179],<0.001,30%,18%
 55,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 1),0.218,0.161,0.085,0.128,0.189,0.173,[0.167 0.18 ],<0.001,29%,0%
-56,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.237,0.149,0.056,0.109,0.193,0.173,[0.167 0.18 ],<0.001,37%,17%
+56,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.237,0.149,0.056,0.109,0.193,0.173,[0.167 0.18 ],<0.001,36%,17%
 57,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot),0.225,0.163,0.068,0.122,0.194,0.174,[0.167 0.18 ],<0.001,31%,3%
 58,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad),0.199,0.188,0.098,0.15,0.194,0.174,[0.169 0.18 ],<0.001,24%,0%
-59,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news),0.205,0.184,0.09,0.144,0.195,0.175,[0.169 0.18 ],<0.001,25%,0%
+59,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news),0.205,0.184,0.091,0.144,0.195,0.175,[0.169 0.18 ],<0.001,25%,0%
 60,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.221,0.142,0.111,0.129,0.182,0.175,[0.168 0.183],<0.001,43%,0%
 61,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.236,0.143,0.076,0.114,0.19,0.175,[0.17  0.181],<0.001,28%,10%
 62,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.222,0.167,0.085,0.132,0.194,0.177,[0.171 0.183],<0.001,28%,1%
@@ -71,16 +71,16 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=5,492)",Market Score (resolved) (N=
 70,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.214,0.179,0.114,0.151,0.197,0.183,[0.176 0.19 ],<0.001,27%,0%
 71,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 3),0.218,0.191,0.089,0.147,0.204,0.183,[0.177 0.188],<0.001,24%,4%
 72,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 1),0.219,0.182,0.101,0.147,0.201,0.183,[0.176 0.19 ],<0.001,30%,4%
-73,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot),0.222,0.189,0.087,0.145,0.206,0.184,[0.178 0.19 ],<0.001,26%,0%
+73,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot),0.222,0.189,0.087,0.146,0.206,0.184,[0.178 0.19 ],<0.001,26%,0%
 74,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.242,0.164,0.073,0.125,0.203,0.184,[0.178 0.19 ],<0.001,33%,14%
 75,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.221,0.189,0.093,0.148,0.205,0.184,[0.18  0.189],<0.001,23%,0%
 76,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot),0.208,0.196,0.123,0.165,0.202,0.186,[0.179 0.194],<0.001,27%,0%
-77,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot),0.227,0.182,0.1,0.147,0.204,0.187,[0.181 0.193],<0.001,28%,1%
+77,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot),0.227,0.182,0.1,0.147,0.204,0.187,[0.181 0.193],<0.001,27%,1%
 78,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news),0.224,0.185,0.108,0.152,0.204,0.188,[0.182 0.194],<0.001,26%,0%
-79,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 3),0.216,0.201,0.106,0.16,0.208,0.188,[0.182 0.194],<0.001,26%,6%
+79,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 3),0.216,0.201,0.106,0.16,0.208,0.188,[0.182 0.195],<0.001,26%,6%
 80,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 2),0.246,0.146,0.11,0.131,0.196,0.188,[0.182 0.195],<0.001,28%,12%
 81,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news),0.222,0.198,0.102,0.157,0.21,0.189,[0.183 0.195],<0.001,23%,0%
-82,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.233,0.19,0.085,0.145,0.212,0.189,[0.183 0.195],<0.001,26%,0%
+82,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.233,0.19,0.086,0.145,0.212,0.189,[0.183 0.195],<0.001,26%,0%
 83,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.221,0.18,0.128,0.158,0.201,0.19,[0.181 0.198],<0.001,41%,0%
 84,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 2),0.224,0.192,0.109,0.157,0.208,0.19,[0.184 0.197],<0.001,26%,1%
 85,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.235,0.174,0.109,0.146,0.204,0.19,[0.183 0.197],<0.001,30%,20%
@@ -90,24 +90,24 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=5,492)",Market Score (resolved) (N=
 89,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 2),0.238,0.191,0.103,0.153,0.214,0.196,[0.188 0.203],<0.001,30%,0%
 90,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.249,0.174,0.098,0.142,0.212,0.196,[0.19  0.202],<0.001,28%,11%
 91,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.249,0.177,0.095,0.142,0.213,0.196,[0.189 0.203],<0.001,28%,10%
-92,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.266,0.154,0.093,0.128,0.21,0.197,[0.188 0.206],<0.001,38%,0%
+92,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.266,0.154,0.094,0.128,0.21,0.197,[0.188 0.206],<0.001,38%,0%
 93,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 3),0.232,0.207,0.104,0.163,0.219,0.197,[0.191 0.203],<0.001,25%,9%
 94,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.27,0.166,0.069,0.125,0.218,0.197,[0.19  0.205],<0.001,37%,23%
-95,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.246,0.197,0.1,0.156,0.221,0.201,[0.192 0.209],<0.001,32%,0%
-96,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot),0.232,0.196,0.142,0.173,0.214,0.203,[0.195 0.211],<0.001,31%,1%
+95,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.246,0.197,0.101,0.156,0.221,0.201,[0.192 0.209],<0.001,32%,0%
+96,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot),0.232,0.196,0.143,0.173,0.214,0.203,[0.195 0.211],<0.001,31%,1%
 97,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 2),0.261,0.187,0.09,0.145,0.224,0.203,[0.196 0.21 ],<0.001,28%,4%
 98,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 2),0.242,0.212,0.102,0.165,0.227,0.203,[0.197 0.209],<0.001,24%,4%
 99,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.268,0.18,0.087,0.14,0.224,0.204,[0.197 0.211],<0.001,32%,24%
-100,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 2),0.251,0.195,0.108,0.157,0.223,0.204,[0.197 0.212],<0.001,28%,7%
+100,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 2),0.251,0.195,0.108,0.158,0.223,0.204,[0.197 0.212],<0.001,28%,7%
 101,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.277,0.155,0.099,0.131,0.216,0.204,[0.198 0.21 ],<0.001,31%,19%
 102,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.248,0.208,0.106,0.164,0.228,0.206,[0.2   0.212],<0.001,24%,2%
-103,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.254,0.209,0.102,0.163,0.231,0.208,[0.202 0.215],<0.001,22%,0%
+103,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.254,0.209,0.102,0.163,0.231,0.209,[0.202 0.215],<0.001,22%,0%
 104,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 1),0.25,0.208,0.121,0.171,0.229,0.211,[0.203 0.218],<0.001,26%,26%
 105,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news),0.254,0.215,0.112,0.171,0.235,0.213,[0.207 0.218],<0.001,22%,0%
 106,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 2),0.241,0.236,0.121,0.187,0.238,0.214,[0.206 0.221],<0.001,26%,10%
 107,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.265,0.216,0.106,0.169,0.24,0.217,[0.21  0.224],<0.001,27%,11%
 108,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.288,0.178,0.104,0.146,0.233,0.217,[0.211 0.224],<0.001,28%,15%
-109,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot),0.246,0.234,0.128,0.189,0.24,0.217,[0.211 0.224],<0.001,26%,1%
+109,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot),0.246,0.234,0.128,0.189,0.24,0.218,[0.211 0.224],<0.001,26%,1%
 110,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.301,0.165,0.096,0.135,0.233,0.218,[0.211 0.225],<0.001,31%,18%
 111,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.288,0.176,0.11,0.148,0.232,0.218,[0.211 0.225],<0.001,28%,15%
 112,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.266,0.206,0.124,0.171,0.236,0.218,[0.209 0.228],<0.001,33%,1%
@@ -121,7 +121,7 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=5,492)",Market Score (resolved) (N=
 120,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.296,0.186,0.12,0.158,0.241,0.227,[0.22  0.234],<0.001,31%,19%
 121,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.277,0.231,0.117,0.182,0.254,0.23,[0.224 0.235],<0.001,20%,1%
 122,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot),0.278,0.239,0.121,0.189,0.259,0.233,[0.228 0.239],<0.001,24%,1%
-123,ForecastBench,Always 0,0.266,0.203,0.199,0.201,0.234,0.233,[0.22  0.246],<0.001,66%,0%
+123,ForecastBench,Always 0,0.266,0.203,0.199,0.201,0.234,0.233,[0.221 0.246],<0.001,66%,0%
 124,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 2),0.267,0.262,0.12,0.201,0.265,0.234,[0.228 0.241],<0.001,22%,6%
 125,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.274,0.247,0.129,0.196,0.26,0.235,[0.229 0.241],<0.001,22%,0%
 126,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad),0.277,0.262,0.128,0.205,0.27,0.241,[0.236 0.246],<0.001,20%,1%
@@ -131,8 +131,8 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=5,492)",Market Score (resolved) (N=
 130,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.3,0.274,0.141,0.217,0.287,0.258,[0.253 0.264],<0.001,20%,0%
 131,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad),0.3,0.283,0.137,0.22,0.291,0.26,[0.254 0.266],<0.001,20%,0%
 132,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.307,0.286,0.152,0.229,0.296,0.268,[0.258 0.277],<0.001,26%,0%
-133,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 1),0.3,0.324,0.15,0.249,0.312,0.275,[0.268 0.282],<0.001,21%,7%
-134,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.307,0.324,0.161,0.254,0.315,0.28,[0.273 0.288],<0.001,25%,1%
+133,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 1),0.3,0.324,0.15,0.25,0.312,0.275,[0.268 0.282],<0.001,21%,7%
+134,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.307,0.324,0.161,0.254,0.315,0.281,[0.273 0.288],<0.001,25%,1%
 135,ForecastBench,Random Uniform,0.341,0.324,0.192,0.267,0.332,0.304,[0.294 0.314],<0.001,28%,0%
 136,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot with freeze values),0.446,0.246,0.147,0.204,0.346,0.325,[0.315 0.335],<0.001,27%,0%
 137,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot),0.446,0.34,0.214,0.286,0.393,0.366,[0.357 0.375],<0.001,21%,0%

leaderboards/html/human_combo_leaderboard_overall.html

@@ -66,7 +66,7 @@
     </head>
     <body>
         <div class="container mt-4">
-    <h1>Human Combo Leaderboard: overall</h1><p class="updated-date">Updated Feb. 17, 2025</p>
+    <h1>Human Combo Leaderboard: overall</h1><p class="updated-date">Updated Feb. 18, 2025</p>
         <div style="display: flex; align-items: center;">
           <a data-bs-toggle="collapse" data-bs-target="#descriptionCollapse" aria-expanded="false"
              aria-controls="descriptionCollapse" style="text-decoration: none; color: inherit;
@@ -298,7 +298,7 @@
       <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.174</td>
       <td>0.148</td>
-      <td>0.064</td>
+      <td>0.065</td>
       <td>0.119</td>
       <td>0.161</td>
       <td>0.146</td>
@@ -388,7 +388,7 @@
       <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.173</td>
       <td>0.162</td>
-      <td>0.054</td>
+      <td>0.055</td>
       <td>0.124</td>
       <td>0.167</td>
       <td>0.149</td>
@@ -418,7 +418,7 @@
       <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.200</td>
       <td>0.125</td>
-      <td>0.052</td>
+      <td>0.053</td>
       <td>0.100</td>
       <td>0.163</td>
       <td>0.150</td>
@@ -463,7 +463,7 @@
       <td>Imputed Forecaster</td>
       <td>0.250</td>
       <td>0.073</td>
-      <td>0.034</td>
+      <td>0.035</td>
       <td>0.059</td>
       <td>0.161</td>
       <td>0.155</td>
@@ -479,7 +479,7 @@
       <td>0.213</td>
       <td>0.125</td>
       <td>0.052</td>
-      <td>0.099</td>
+      <td>0.100</td>
       <td>0.169</td>
       <td>0.156</td>
       <td>[0.144, 0.168]</td>
@@ -496,7 +496,7 @@
       <td>0.082</td>
       <td>0.110</td>
       <td>0.165</td>
-      <td>0.157</td>
+      <td>0.158</td>
       <td>[0.144, 0.171]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>20%</td>
@@ -512,7 +512,7 @@
       <td>0.149</td>
       <td>0.174</td>
       <td>0.158</td>
-      <td>[0.146, 0.169]</td>
+      <td>[0.146, 0.17]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>17%</td>
       <td>2%</td>
@@ -554,10 +554,10 @@
       <td>0.241</td>
       <td>0.097</td>
       <td>0.050</td>
-      <td>0.080</td>
+      <td>0.081</td>
       <td>0.169</td>
       <td>0.161</td>
-      <td>[0.153, 0.168]</td>
+      <td>[0.153, 0.169]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>18%</td>
       <td>76%</td>
@@ -583,7 +583,7 @@
       <td>LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news</td>
       <td>0.242</td>
       <td>0.100</td>
-      <td>0.050</td>
+      <td>0.051</td>
       <td>0.083</td>
       <td>0.171</td>
       <td>0.162</td>
@@ -673,7 +673,7 @@
       <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot)</td>
       <td>0.205</td>
       <td>0.136</td>
-      <td>0.113</td>
+      <td>0.114</td>
       <td>0.128</td>
       <td>0.171</td>
       <td>0.167</td>
@@ -688,7 +688,7 @@
       <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.179</td>
       <td>0.182</td>
-      <td>0.103</td>
+      <td>0.104</td>
       <td>0.154</td>
       <td>0.180</td>
       <td>0.167</td>
@@ -718,7 +718,7 @@
       <td>Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.205</td>
       <td>0.168</td>
-      <td>0.065</td>
+      <td>0.066</td>
       <td>0.132</td>
       <td>0.186</td>
       <td>0.168</td>
@@ -733,7 +733,7 @@
       <td>Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.208</td>
       <td>0.156</td>
-      <td>0.078</td>
+      <td>0.079</td>
       <td>0.129</td>
       <td>0.182</td>
       <td>0.169</td>
@@ -767,7 +767,7 @@
       <td>0.122</td>
       <td>0.183</td>
       <td>0.169</td>
-      <td>[0.155, 0.183]</td>
+      <td>[0.155, 0.184]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>23%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
@@ -827,7 +827,7 @@
       <td>0.139</td>
       <td>0.183</td>
       <td>0.170</td>
-      <td>[0.16, 0.181]</td>
+      <td>[0.159, 0.181]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>17%</td>
       <td>9%</td>
@@ -1495,14 +1495,14 @@
     <tr>
       <td>90</td>
       <td>Mistral AI</td>
-      <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
-      <td>0.229</td>
-      <td>0.210</td>
-      <td>0.099</td>
-      <td>0.171</td>
-      <td>0.219</td>
+      <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot)</td>
+      <td>0.207</td>
+      <td>0.222</td>
+      <td>0.140</td>
+      <td>0.193</td>
+      <td>0.214</td>
       <td>0.200</td>
-      <td>[0.189, 0.211]</td>
+      <td>[0.186, 0.214]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>16%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
@@ -1510,14 +1510,14 @@
     <tr>
       <td>91</td>
       <td>Mistral AI</td>
-      <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot)</td>
-      <td>0.207</td>
-      <td>0.222</td>
-      <td>0.140</td>
-      <td>0.193</td>
-      <td>0.214</td>
+      <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
+      <td>0.229</td>
+      <td>0.210</td>
+      <td>0.099</td>
+      <td>0.171</td>
+      <td>0.219</td>
       <td>0.200</td>
-      <td>[0.186, 0.214]</td>
+      <td>[0.189, 0.211]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>16%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
@@ -1619,10 +1619,10 @@
       <td>0.242</td>
       <td>0.209</td>
       <td>0.130</td>
-      <td>0.181</td>
+      <td>0.182</td>
       <td>0.226</td>
       <td>0.212</td>
-      <td>[0.2, 0.223]</td>
+      <td>[0.2, 0.224]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>15%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
@@ -1674,21 +1674,6 @@
     </tr>
     <tr>
       <td>102</td>
-      <td>Qwen</td>
-      <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
-      <td>0.243</td>
-      <td>0.224</td>
-      <td>0.115</td>
-      <td>0.186</td>
-      <td>0.233</td>
-      <td>0.214</td>
-      <td>[0.203, 0.225]</td>
-      <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>16%</td>
-      <td>4%</td>
-    </tr>
-    <tr>
-      <td>103</td>
       <td>Mistral AI</td>
       <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news)</td>
       <td>0.242</td>
@@ -1702,13 +1687,28 @@
       <td>15%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
     </tr>
+    <tr>
+      <td>103</td>
+      <td>Qwen</td>
+      <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
+      <td>0.243</td>
+      <td>0.224</td>
+      <td>0.115</td>
+      <td>0.186</td>
+      <td>0.233</td>
+      <td>0.214</td>
+      <td>[0.203, 0.225]</td>
+      <td>&lt;0.001</td>
+      <td>16%</td>
+      <td>4%</td>
+    </tr>
     <tr>
       <td>104</td>
       <td>Anthropic</td>
       <td>Claude-2.1 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.244</td>
       <td>0.214</td>
-      <td>0.132</td>
+      <td>0.133</td>
       <td>0.186</td>
       <td>0.229</td>
       <td>0.215</td>
@@ -1726,7 +1726,7 @@
       <td>0.112</td>
       <td>0.176</td>
       <td>0.234</td>
-      <td>0.216</td>
+      <td>0.217</td>
       <td>[0.203, 0.23]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>18%</td>
@@ -1783,7 +1783,7 @@
       <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
       <td>0.231</td>
       <td>0.244</td>
-      <td>0.159</td>
+      <td>0.160</td>
       <td>0.215</td>
       <td>0.237</td>
       <td>0.223</td>
@@ -1828,7 +1828,7 @@
       <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
       <td>0.248</td>
       <td>0.232</td>
-      <td>0.159</td>
+      <td>0.160</td>
       <td>0.207</td>
       <td>0.240</td>
       <td>0.227</td>
@@ -1906,7 +1906,7 @@
       <td>0.134</td>
       <td>0.199</td>
       <td>0.248</td>
-      <td>0.230</td>
+      <td>0.231</td>
       <td>[0.22, 0.241]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>16%</td>
@@ -1967,7 +1967,7 @@
       <td>0.190</td>
       <td>0.253</td>
       <td>0.235</td>
-      <td>[0.222, 0.247]</td>
+      <td>[0.222, 0.248]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>15%</td>
       <td>1%</td>
@@ -1978,7 +1978,7 @@
       <td>Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad)</td>
       <td>0.262</td>
       <td>0.249</td>
-      <td>0.138</td>
+      <td>0.139</td>
       <td>0.211</td>
       <td>0.255</td>
       <td>0.236</td>
@@ -2012,7 +2012,7 @@
       <td>0.212</td>
       <td>0.259</td>
       <td>0.242</td>
-      <td>[0.231, 0.252]</td>
+      <td>[0.231, 0.253]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>15%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
@@ -2158,7 +2158,7 @@
       <td>Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.304</td>
       <td>0.288</td>
-      <td>0.189</td>
+      <td>0.190</td>
       <td>0.254</td>
       <td>0.296</td>
       <td>0.279</td>
@@ -2249,7 +2249,7 @@
       <td>0.731</td>
       <td>0.782</td>
       <td>0.536</td>
-      <td>0.696</td>
+      <td>0.697</td>
       <td>0.757</td>
       <td>0.714</td>
       <td>[0.688, 0.74]</td>

leaderboards/html/human_leaderboard_overall.html

@@ -66,7 +66,7 @@
     </head>
     <body>
         <div class="container mt-4">
-    <h1>Human Leaderboard: overall</h1><p class="updated-date">Updated Feb. 17, 2025</p>
+    <h1>Human Leaderboard: overall</h1><p class="updated-date">Updated Feb. 18, 2025</p>
         <div style="display: flex; align-items: center;">
           <a data-bs-toggle="collapse" data-bs-target="#descriptionCollapse" aria-expanded="false"
              aria-controls="descriptionCollapse" style="text-decoration: none; color: inherit;
@@ -163,7 +163,7 @@
       <td>Superforecaster median forecast</td>
       <td>0.118</td>
       <td>0.084</td>
-      <td>0.058</td>
+      <td>0.057</td>
       <td>0.074</td>
       <td>0.101</td>
       <td>0.096</td>
@@ -227,7 +227,7 @@
       <td>0.095</td>
       <td>0.149</td>
       <td>0.128</td>
-      <td>[0.105, 0.151]</td>
+      <td>[0.106, 0.151]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>32%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
@@ -332,7 +332,7 @@
       <td>0.115</td>
       <td>0.163</td>
       <td>0.139</td>
-      <td>[0.114, 0.164]</td>
+      <td>[0.114, 0.165]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>23%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
@@ -403,7 +403,7 @@
       <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.160</td>
       <td>0.157</td>
-      <td>0.077</td>
+      <td>0.076</td>
       <td>0.129</td>
       <td>0.159</td>
       <td>0.144</td>
@@ -448,7 +448,7 @@
       <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad)</td>
       <td>0.162</td>
       <td>0.169</td>
-      <td>0.063</td>
+      <td>0.062</td>
       <td>0.131</td>
       <td>0.166</td>
       <td>0.147</td>
@@ -494,7 +494,7 @@
       <td>0.176</td>
       <td>0.155</td>
       <td>0.066</td>
-      <td>0.123</td>
+      <td>0.124</td>
       <td>0.166</td>
       <td>0.150</td>
       <td>[0.126, 0.173]</td>
@@ -617,7 +617,7 @@
       <td>0.116</td>
       <td>0.172</td>
       <td>0.153</td>
-      <td>[0.135, 0.171]</td>
+      <td>[0.136, 0.171]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>25%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
@@ -943,7 +943,7 @@
       <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
       <td>0.183</td>
       <td>0.179</td>
-      <td>0.098</td>
+      <td>0.097</td>
       <td>0.150</td>
       <td>0.181</td>
       <td>0.166</td>
@@ -962,7 +962,7 @@
       <td>0.133</td>
       <td>0.188</td>
       <td>0.167</td>
-      <td>[0.149, 0.186]</td>
+      <td>[0.149, 0.185]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>23%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
@@ -1078,7 +1078,7 @@
       <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
       <td>0.194</td>
       <td>0.193</td>
-      <td>0.073</td>
+      <td>0.074</td>
       <td>0.151</td>
       <td>0.194</td>
       <td>0.172</td>
@@ -1093,7 +1093,7 @@
       <td>Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.206</td>
       <td>0.167</td>
-      <td>0.090</td>
+      <td>0.089</td>
       <td>0.139</td>
       <td>0.186</td>
       <td>0.173</td>
@@ -1183,7 +1183,7 @@
       <td>Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.225</td>
       <td>0.165</td>
-      <td>0.062</td>
+      <td>0.061</td>
       <td>0.128</td>
       <td>0.195</td>
       <td>0.177</td>
@@ -1198,8 +1198,8 @@
       <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
       <td>0.174</td>
       <td>0.210</td>
-      <td>0.125</td>
-      <td>0.180</td>
+      <td>0.124</td>
+      <td>0.179</td>
       <td>0.192</td>
       <td>0.177</td>
       <td>[0.152, 0.202]</td>
@@ -1303,8 +1303,8 @@
       <td>Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.214</td>
       <td>0.176</td>
-      <td>0.091</td>
-      <td>0.146</td>
+      <td>0.090</td>
+      <td>0.145</td>
       <td>0.195</td>
       <td>0.180</td>
       <td>[0.158, 0.202]</td>
@@ -1381,8 +1381,8 @@
       <td>0.091</td>
       <td>0.155</td>
       <td>0.201</td>
-      <td>0.184</td>
-      <td>[0.158, 0.209]</td>
+      <td>0.183</td>
+      <td>[0.158, 0.208]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>21%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
@@ -1427,7 +1427,7 @@
       <td>0.131</td>
       <td>0.203</td>
       <td>0.184</td>
-      <td>[0.166, 0.203]</td>
+      <td>[0.165, 0.203]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>16%</td>
       <td>44%</td>
@@ -1439,7 +1439,7 @@
       <td>0.214</td>
       <td>0.181</td>
       <td>0.106</td>
-      <td>0.155</td>
+      <td>0.154</td>
       <td>0.198</td>
       <td>0.184</td>
       <td>[0.161, 0.207]</td>
@@ -1456,7 +1456,7 @@
       <td>0.070</td>
       <td>0.168</td>
       <td>0.211</td>
-      <td>0.185</td>
+      <td>0.184</td>
       <td>[0.16, 0.209]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>22%</td>
@@ -1544,7 +1544,7 @@
       <td>0.185</td>
       <td>0.224</td>
       <td>0.130</td>
-      <td>0.191</td>
+      <td>0.190</td>
       <td>0.205</td>
       <td>0.188</td>
       <td>[0.161, 0.215]</td>
@@ -1577,7 +1577,7 @@
       <td>0.189</td>
       <td>0.209</td>
       <td>0.190</td>
-      <td>[0.162, 0.217]</td>
+      <td>[0.162, 0.218]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>18%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
@@ -1603,7 +1603,7 @@
       <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
       <td>0.212</td>
       <td>0.208</td>
-      <td>0.098</td>
+      <td>0.097</td>
       <td>0.169</td>
       <td>0.210</td>
       <td>0.190</td>
@@ -1633,8 +1633,8 @@
       <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot)</td>
       <td>0.225</td>
       <td>0.190</td>
-      <td>0.110</td>
-      <td>0.162</td>
+      <td>0.109</td>
+      <td>0.161</td>
       <td>0.208</td>
       <td>0.193</td>
       <td>[0.165, 0.222]</td>
@@ -1648,7 +1648,7 @@
       <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
       <td>0.251</td>
       <td>0.162</td>
-      <td>0.090</td>
+      <td>0.091</td>
       <td>0.137</td>
       <td>0.207</td>
       <td>0.194</td>
@@ -1693,7 +1693,7 @@
       <td>Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad)</td>
       <td>0.225</td>
       <td>0.224</td>
-      <td>0.072</td>
+      <td>0.071</td>
       <td>0.170</td>
       <td>0.224</td>
       <td>0.197</td>
@@ -1739,7 +1739,7 @@
       <td>0.209</td>
       <td>0.225</td>
       <td>0.119</td>
-      <td>0.187</td>
+      <td>0.188</td>
       <td>0.217</td>
       <td>0.198</td>
       <td>[0.173, 0.224]</td>
@@ -1756,7 +1756,7 @@
       <td>0.124</td>
       <td>0.170</td>
       <td>0.211</td>
-      <td>0.199</td>
+      <td>0.198</td>
       <td>[0.176, 0.221]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>23%</td>
@@ -1772,7 +1772,7 @@
       <td>0.151</td>
       <td>0.221</td>
       <td>0.200</td>
-      <td>[0.174, 0.226]</td>
+      <td>[0.174, 0.225]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>26%</td>
       <td>15%</td>
@@ -1817,7 +1817,7 @@
       <td>0.183</td>
       <td>0.228</td>
       <td>0.204</td>
-      <td>[0.183, 0.226]</td>
+      <td>[0.182, 0.226]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>22%</td>
       <td>4%</td>
@@ -1948,7 +1948,7 @@
       <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
       <td>0.231</td>
       <td>0.245</td>
-      <td>0.103</td>
+      <td>0.102</td>
       <td>0.194</td>
       <td>0.238</td>
       <td>0.213</td>
@@ -2008,7 +2008,7 @@
       <td>Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
       <td>0.241</td>
       <td>0.235</td>
-      <td>0.137</td>
+      <td>0.136</td>
       <td>0.200</td>
       <td>0.238</td>
       <td>0.221</td>
@@ -2083,7 +2083,7 @@
       <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news)</td>
       <td>0.295</td>
       <td>0.192</td>
-      <td>0.103</td>
+      <td>0.104</td>
       <td>0.161</td>
       <td>0.244</td>
       <td>0.228</td>
@@ -2233,7 +2233,7 @@
       <td>GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot)</td>
       <td>0.422</td>
       <td>0.256</td>
-      <td>0.171</td>
+      <td>0.170</td>
       <td>0.226</td>
       <td>0.339</td>
       <td>0.324</td>

leaderboards/html/leaderboard_overall.html

@@ -66,7 +66,7 @@
     </head>
     <body>
         <div class="container mt-4">
-    <h1>Leaderboard: overall</h1><p class="updated-date">Updated Feb. 17, 2025</p>
+    <h1>Leaderboard: overall</h1><p class="updated-date">Updated Feb. 18, 2025</p>
         <div style="display: flex; align-items: center;">
           <a data-bs-toggle="collapse" data-bs-target="#descriptionCollapse" aria-expanded="false"
              aria-controls="descriptionCollapse" style="text-decoration: none; color: inherit;
@@ -183,7 +183,7 @@
       <td>0.139</td>
       <td>0.126</td>
       <td>[0.12, 0.132]</td>
-      <td>0.096</td>
+      <td>0.098</td>
       <td>43%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
     </tr>
@@ -359,7 +359,7 @@
       <td>0.162</td>
       <td>0.162</td>
       <td>0.084</td>
-      <td>0.128</td>
+      <td>0.129</td>
       <td>0.162</td>
       <td>0.145</td>
       <td>[0.139, 0.151]</td>
@@ -403,7 +403,7 @@
       <td>Imputed Forecaster</td>
       <td>0.250</td>
       <td>0.065</td>
-      <td>0.024</td>
+      <td>0.025</td>
       <td>0.048</td>
       <td>0.158</td>
       <td>0.149</td>
@@ -496,7 +496,7 @@
       <td>0.045</td>
       <td>0.087</td>
       <td>0.170</td>
-      <td>0.154</td>
+      <td>0.155</td>
       <td>[0.148, 0.161]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>38%</td>
@@ -722,7 +722,7 @@
       <td>0.116</td>
       <td>0.176</td>
       <td>0.162</td>
-      <td>[0.156, 0.167]</td>
+      <td>[0.157, 0.167]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>28%</td>
       <td>9%</td>
@@ -808,7 +808,7 @@
       <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.232</td>
       <td>0.128</td>
-      <td>0.058</td>
+      <td>0.059</td>
       <td>0.098</td>
       <td>0.180</td>
       <td>0.165</td>
@@ -853,7 +853,7 @@
       <td>Claude-2.1 (scratchpad)</td>
       <td>0.237</td>
       <td>0.125</td>
-      <td>0.066</td>
+      <td>0.067</td>
       <td>0.100</td>
       <td>0.181</td>
       <td>0.168</td>
@@ -899,7 +899,7 @@
       <td>0.201</td>
       <td>0.178</td>
       <td>0.092</td>
-      <td>0.141</td>
+      <td>0.142</td>
       <td>0.190</td>
       <td>0.171</td>
       <td>[0.165, 0.177]</td>
@@ -994,7 +994,7 @@
       <td>0.173</td>
       <td>[0.167, 0.18]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>37%</td>
+      <td>36%</td>
       <td>17%</td>
     </tr>
     <tr>
@@ -1033,7 +1033,7 @@
       <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news)</td>
       <td>0.205</td>
       <td>0.184</td>
-      <td>0.090</td>
+      <td>0.091</td>
       <td>0.144</td>
       <td>0.195</td>
       <td>0.175</td>
@@ -1244,7 +1244,7 @@
       <td>0.222</td>
       <td>0.189</td>
       <td>0.087</td>
-      <td>0.145</td>
+      <td>0.146</td>
       <td>0.206</td>
       <td>0.184</td>
       <td>[0.178, 0.19]</td>
@@ -1309,7 +1309,7 @@
       <td>0.187</td>
       <td>[0.181, 0.193]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>28%</td>
+      <td>27%</td>
       <td>1%</td>
     </tr>
     <tr>
@@ -1337,7 +1337,7 @@
       <td>0.160</td>
       <td>0.208</td>
       <td>0.188</td>
-      <td>[0.182, 0.194]</td>
+      <td>[0.182, 0.195]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>26%</td>
       <td>6%</td>
@@ -1378,7 +1378,7 @@
       <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.233</td>
       <td>0.190</td>
-      <td>0.085</td>
+      <td>0.086</td>
       <td>0.145</td>
       <td>0.212</td>
       <td>0.189</td>
@@ -1528,7 +1528,7 @@
       <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.266</td>
       <td>0.154</td>
-      <td>0.093</td>
+      <td>0.094</td>
       <td>0.128</td>
       <td>0.210</td>
       <td>0.197</td>
@@ -1573,7 +1573,7 @@
       <td>Claude-2.1 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.246</td>
       <td>0.197</td>
-      <td>0.100</td>
+      <td>0.101</td>
       <td>0.156</td>
       <td>0.221</td>
       <td>0.201</td>
@@ -1588,7 +1588,7 @@
       <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot)</td>
       <td>0.232</td>
       <td>0.196</td>
-      <td>0.142</td>
+      <td>0.143</td>
       <td>0.173</td>
       <td>0.214</td>
       <td>0.203</td>
@@ -1649,7 +1649,7 @@
       <td>0.251</td>
       <td>0.195</td>
       <td>0.108</td>
-      <td>0.157</td>
+      <td>0.158</td>
       <td>0.223</td>
       <td>0.204</td>
       <td>[0.197, 0.212]</td>
@@ -1696,7 +1696,7 @@
       <td>0.102</td>
       <td>0.163</td>
       <td>0.231</td>
-      <td>0.208</td>
+      <td>0.209</td>
       <td>[0.202, 0.215]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>22%</td>
@@ -1786,7 +1786,7 @@
       <td>0.128</td>
       <td>0.189</td>
       <td>0.240</td>
-      <td>0.217</td>
+      <td>0.218</td>
       <td>[0.211, 0.224]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>26%</td>
@@ -1997,7 +1997,7 @@
       <td>0.201</td>
       <td>0.234</td>
       <td>0.233</td>
-      <td>[0.22, 0.246]</td>
+      <td>[0.221, 0.246]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>66%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
@@ -2144,7 +2144,7 @@
       <td>0.300</td>
       <td>0.324</td>
       <td>0.150</td>
-      <td>0.249</td>
+      <td>0.250</td>
       <td>0.312</td>
       <td>0.275</td>
       <td>[0.268, 0.282]</td>
@@ -2161,7 +2161,7 @@
       <td>0.161</td>
       <td>0.254</td>
       <td>0.315</td>
-      <td>0.280</td>
+      <td>0.281</td>
       <td>[0.273, 0.288]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>25%</td>