leaderboard tournament: automatic update html & csv files.

leaderboards/csv/leaderboard_tournament.csv

@@ -1,194 +1,194 @@
 Rank,Team,Model Organization,Model,Dataset,N dataset,Dataset 95% CI,Market,N market,Market 95% CI,Overall,N,Overall 95% CI,Supers > Forecaster?,p-val Supers > Forecaster?,Forecaster > Public?,p-val Forecaster > Public?,Pct times № 1,Pct times top 5%,x% oracle equiv,Peer,BSS
-1,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Superforecaster median forecast,0.152,477,"[0.142, 0.162]",0.034,54,"[0.015, 0.053]",0.093,531,"[0.082, 0.103]",—,—,Yes,<0.001,94.847,100.0,70%,0.185,0.097
-2,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Pro (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.153,680,"[0.143, 0.161]",0.065,31,"[0.035, 0.097]",0.109,711,"[0.093, 0.125]",Likely,0.05,Likely,0.02,4.302,92.246,67%,0.195,0.06
-3,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.158,680,"[0.149, 0.168]",0.061,31,"[0.048, 0.075]",0.11,711,"[0.101, 0.118]",Yes,<0.01,Yes,<0.01,0.4,99.9,67%,0.194,0.059
-4,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-2025-08-07 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.157,680,"[0.147, 0.166]",0.067,31,"[0.05, 0.086]",0.112,711,"[0.102, 0.122]",Yes,<0.01,Yes,<0.01,0.1,96.498,67%,0.192,0.057
-5,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.175,1851,"[0.171, 0.179]",0.051,135,"[0.041, 0.061]",0.113,1986,"[0.108, 0.118]",Yes,<0.001,Yes,<0.01,0.0,99.25,66%,0.206,0.059
-6,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.165,934,"[0.157, 0.171]",0.066,60,"[0.05, 0.084]",0.115,994,"[0.106, 0.125]",Yes,<0.001,Likely,0.02,0.0,89.845,66%,0.185,0.066
-7,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.176,6468,"[0.173, 0.179]",0.056,419,"[0.047, 0.067]",0.116,6887,"[0.111, 0.121]",Yes,<0.001,Likely,0.01,0.0,91.896,66%,0.193,0.06
-8,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.173,1851,"[0.169, 0.178]",0.06,135,"[0.048, 0.074]",0.117,1986,"[0.11, 0.124]",Yes,<0.001,Likely,0.04,0.0,79.29,66%,0.203,0.055
-9,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-R1 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.174,4620,"[0.171, 0.177]",0.066,317,"[0.056, 0.077]",0.12,4937,"[0.115, 0.126]",Yes,<0.001,Likely,0.08,0.0,44.622,65%,0.193,0.057
-10,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.183,6468,"[0.181, 0.186]",0.059,419,"[0.049, 0.071]",0.121,6887,"[0.116, 0.127]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.11,0.0,22.811,65%,0.187,0.055
-11,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.175,4141,"[0.169, 0.181]",0.071,232,"[0.057, 0.086]",0.123,4373,"[0.115, 0.131]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.17,0.0,16.558,65%,0.183,0.053
-11,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.173,934,"[0.166, 0.179]",0.074,60,"[0.055, 0.094]",0.123,994,"[0.114, 0.134]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.21,0.0,19.51,65%,0.177,0.058
-13,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.194,6468,"[0.191, 0.197]",0.056,419,"[0.047, 0.067]",0.125,6887,"[0.12, 0.131]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.24,0.0,0.0,65%,0.184,0.051
-13,ForecastBench,xAI,Grok-beta (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.196,1835,"[0.191, 0.2]",0.054,122,"[0.043, 0.067]",0.125,1957,"[0.119, 0.132]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.25,0.0,1.601,65%,0.188,0.055
-13,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.174,680,"[0.165, 0.183]",0.075,31,"[0.053, 0.107]",0.125,711,"[0.112, 0.141]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.29,0.0,15.458,65%,0.179,0.044
-16,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Mini-2025-08-07 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.168,680,"[0.158, 0.177]",0.083,31,"[0.058, 0.113]",0.126,711,"[0.112, 0.141]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.33,0.0,15.258,65%,0.178,0.043
-16,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.193,3698,"[0.188, 0.197]",0.06,249,"[0.049, 0.071]",0.126,3947,"[0.121, 0.132]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.29,0.0,0.05,64%,0.184,0.052
-16,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.17,3207,"[0.166, 0.175]",0.081,172,"[0.062, 0.102]",0.126,3379,"[0.116, 0.137]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.33,0.0,8.154,65%,0.182,0.049
-19,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.17,680,"[0.159, 0.182]",0.085,31,"[0.052, 0.13]",0.127,711,"[0.11, 0.151]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.40,0.0,18.209,64%,0.177,0.041
-19,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.165,680,"[0.157, 0.173]",0.09,31,"[0.053, 0.155]",0.127,711,"[0.109, 0.16]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.40,0.0,34.617,64%,0.177,0.041
-21,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.185,5023,"[0.181, 0.188]",0.073,270,"[0.062, 0.085]",0.129,5293,"[0.123, 0.135]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.47,0.0,0.0,64%,0.179,0.045
-21,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.191,10915,"[0.189, 0.194]",0.067,701,"[0.057, 0.078]",0.129,11616,"[0.124, 0.135]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.48,0.0,0.0,64%,0.177,0.048
-21,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-20250514 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.172,681,"[0.164, 0.18]",0.086,33,"[0.058, 0.129]",0.129,714,"[0.114, 0.15]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.47,0.0,13.357,64%,0.197,0.048
-24,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.199,4934,"[0.195, 0.202]",0.061,320,"[0.05, 0.072]",0.13,5254,"[0.124, 0.136]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.51,0.0,0.0,64%,0.168,0.049
-24,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Public median forecast,0.185,477,"[0.17, 0.199]",0.075,54,"[0.053, 0.097]",0.13,531,"[0.117, 0.143]",Yes,<0.001,—,—,0.0,5.753,64%,0.148,0.06
-24,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash-Preview-04-17 (zero shot),0.167,934,"[0.157, 0.176]",0.093,60,"[0.061, 0.129]",0.13,994,"[0.113, 0.148]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.50,0.0,11.156,64%,0.17,0.051
-24,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.193,6468,"[0.191, 0.196]",0.066,419,"[0.054, 0.079]",0.13,6887,"[0.124, 0.136]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.51,0.0,0.0,64%,0.179,0.047
-24,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.193,11593,"[0.191, 0.196]",0.066,738,"[0.056, 0.078]",0.13,12331,"[0.124, 0.136]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.53,0.0,0.0,64%,0.177,0.047
-29,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash-Preview-04-17 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.167,934,"[0.157, 0.176]",0.096,60,"[0.069, 0.129]",0.131,994,"[0.116, 0.148]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.55,0.0,4.952,64%,0.169,0.05
-29,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.198,4620,"[0.195, 0.202]",0.064,317,"[0.054, 0.075]",0.131,4937,"[0.126, 0.137]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.60,0.0,0.0,64%,0.182,0.046
-29,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.181,4821,"[0.176, 0.185]",0.081,263,"[0.065, 0.098]",0.131,5084,"[0.122, 0.14]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.58,0.0,0.0,64%,0.175,0.044
-32,ForecastBench,Meta,Meta-Llama-3.1-405B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.2,1848,"[0.195, 0.205]",0.064,102,"[0.051, 0.08]",0.132,1950,"[0.125, 0.14]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.65,0.0,0.0,64%,0.164,0.044
-33,ForecastBench,Z.ai,GLM-4.5-Air-FP8 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.197,680,"[0.185, 0.21]",0.07,31,"[0.053, 0.09]",0.134,711,"[0.124, 0.145]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.70,0.0,0.05,63%,0.17,0.035
-34,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (zero shot),0.165,934,"[0.157, 0.171]",0.106,60,"[0.069, 0.147]",0.135,994,"[0.117, 0.156]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.68,0.0,3.002,63%,0.165,0.046
-34,ForecastBench,Moonshot,Kimi-K2-Instruct (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.198,2039,"[0.191, 0.205]",0.072,101,"[0.056, 0.091]",0.135,2140,"[0.126, 0.145]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.80,0.0,0.0,63%,0.183,0.036
-36,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.201,6468,"[0.198, 0.204]",0.071,419,"[0.06, 0.083]",0.136,6887,"[0.13, 0.142]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.84,0.0,0.0,63%,0.173,0.041
-36,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (scratchpad),0.173,934,"[0.166, 0.179]",0.099,60,"[0.069, 0.136]",0.136,994,"[0.121, 0.154]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.74,0.0,0.35,63%,0.164,0.045
-38,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.197,4934,"[0.193, 0.201]",0.077,320,"[0.062, 0.092]",0.137,5254,"[0.129, 0.145]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.90,0.0,0.0,63%,0.161,0.041
-38,ForecastBench,Qwen,QwQ-32B-Preview (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.208,2769,"[0.201, 0.215]",0.067,182,"[0.054, 0.082]",0.137,2951,"[0.13, 0.145]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.87,0.0,0.0,63%,0.171,0.043
-40,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (scratchpad),0.176,6468,"[0.173, 0.179]",0.1,419,"[0.087, 0.113]",0.138,6887,"[0.131, 0.145]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.89,0.0,0.0,63%,0.171,0.038
-40,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (zero shot),0.175,1851,"[0.171, 0.179]",0.1,135,"[0.075, 0.126]",0.138,1986,"[0.125, 0.151]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.83,0.0,0.15,63%,0.182,0.034
-40,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-05-13 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.215,6434,"[0.212, 0.219]",0.06,384,"[0.05, 0.072]",0.138,6818,"[0.132, 0.144]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.90,0.0,0.0,63%,0.17,0.04
-40,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.173,3207,"[0.169, 0.178]",0.102,172,"[0.08, 0.126]",0.138,3379,"[0.127, 0.15]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.84,0.0,0.0,63%,0.17,0.037
-44,ForecastBench,Z.ai,GLM-4.5-Air-FP8 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.191,680,"[0.178, 0.204]",0.089,31,"[0.059, 0.128]",0.14,711,"[0.123, 0.16]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.83,0.0,0.1,63%,0.164,0.029
-44,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2407 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.215,6434,"[0.211, 0.218]",0.066,384,"[0.055, 0.077]",0.14,6818,"[0.134, 0.146]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.95,0.0,0.0,63%,0.167,0.037
-44,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.173,680,"[0.164, 0.184]",0.106,31,"[0.057, 0.174]",0.14,711,"[0.115, 0.174]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.71,0.0,3.952,63%,0.164,0.029
-47,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.215,1848,"[0.209, 0.221]",0.067,102,"[0.053, 0.083]",0.141,1950,"[0.133, 0.15]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.95,0.0,0.0,62%,0.155,0.035
-48,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.197,929,"[0.191, 0.203]",0.086,67,"[0.068, 0.107]",0.142,996,"[0.132, 0.152]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.93,0.0,0.0,62%,0.173,0.028
-48,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.188,922,"[0.183, 0.194]",0.095,68,"[0.07, 0.124]",0.142,990,"[0.129, 0.157]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.91,0.0,0.0,62%,0.182,0.031
-50,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.21,1269,"[0.201, 0.218]",0.076,118,"[0.057, 0.096]",0.143,1387,"[0.132, 0.154]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,62%,0.139,0.042
-50,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (scratchpad),0.173,1851,"[0.169, 0.178]",0.113,135,"[0.092, 0.136]",0.143,1986,"[0.132, 0.155]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.95,0.0,0.0,62%,0.176,0.028
-52,ForecastBench,xAI,Grok-beta (zero shot),0.196,1835,"[0.191, 0.2]",0.092,122,"[0.069, 0.115]",0.144,1957,"[0.132, 0.156]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.95,0.0,0.0,62%,0.169,0.036
-53,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.219,6468,"[0.215, 0.222]",0.072,419,"[0.059, 0.086]",0.145,6887,"[0.139, 0.153]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,62%,0.163,0.031
-53,ForecastBench,Mistral,Magistral-Medium-2506 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.196,1361,"[0.188, 0.204]",0.093,64,"[0.074, 0.115]",0.145,1425,"[0.134, 0.156]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.97,0.0,0.0,62%,0.171,0.028
-53,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-R1 (scratchpad),0.174,3698,"[0.171, 0.177]",0.115,249,"[0.1, 0.13]",0.145,3947,"[0.137, 0.152]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.98,0.0,0.0,62%,0.166,0.033
-53,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.19,1269,"[0.182, 0.197]",0.1,118,"[0.075, 0.127]",0.145,1387,"[0.132, 0.159]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,62%,0.137,0.04
-57,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2411 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.218,2039,"[0.211, 0.225]",0.077,101,"[0.059, 0.095]",0.148,2140,"[0.138, 0.157]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,62%,0.171,0.024
-57,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (scratchpad),0.194,6468,"[0.191, 0.197]",0.102,419,"[0.088, 0.118]",0.148,6887,"[0.141, 0.156]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,62%,0.161,0.028
-59,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.211,1835,"[0.203, 0.218]",0.088,122,"[0.067, 0.111]",0.149,1957,"[0.138, 0.162]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,61%,0.164,0.03
-59,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-11-20 (zero shot with crowd forecast with web search),0.188,922,"[0.179, 0.197]",0.11,68,"[0.07, 0.157]",0.149,990,"[0.128, 0.173]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.94,0.0,0.15,61%,0.175,0.024
-59,ForecastBench,Qwen,QwQ-32B-Preview (scratchpad),0.197,1849,"[0.189, 0.205]",0.102,121,"[0.08, 0.124]",0.149,1970,"[0.138, 0.162]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,61%,0.153,0.032
-62,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Imputed Forecaster,0.25,11593,"[0.25, 0.25]",0.053,738,"[0.044, 0.063]",0.151,12331,"[0.147, 0.156]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.156,0.025
-62,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.207,1269,"[0.198, 0.215]",0.096,118,"[0.069, 0.126]",0.151,1387,"[0.137, 0.166]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.131,0.034
-62,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.209,1269,"[0.199, 0.219]",0.094,118,"[0.072, 0.118]",0.151,1387,"[0.139, 0.164]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.131,0.034
-65,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (zero shot),0.183,6468,"[0.181, 0.186]",0.121,419,"[0.104, 0.139]",0.152,6887,"[0.144, 0.161]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.157,0.024
-65,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (zero shot),0.17,3207,"[0.166, 0.175]",0.134,172,"[0.102, 0.166]",0.152,3379,"[0.136, 0.169]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,61%,0.156,0.023
-67,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (scratchpad),0.175,4141,"[0.169, 0.181]",0.131,232,"[0.104, 0.158]",0.153,4373,"[0.14, 0.167]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.153,0.023
-67,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (zero shot),0.193,6468,"[0.191, 0.196]",0.112,419,"[0.095, 0.131]",0.153,6887,"[0.144, 0.162]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.156,0.024
-67,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (scratchpad),0.173,680,"[0.164, 0.184]",0.132,31,"[0.078, 0.198]",0.153,711,"[0.125, 0.185]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.93,0.0,0.0,61%,0.151,0.016
-67,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (zero shot),0.181,4821,"[0.176, 0.185]",0.125,263,"[0.101, 0.152]",0.153,5084,"[0.14, 0.166]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,61%,0.153,0.022
-71,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.225,1269,"[0.215, 0.235]",0.083,118,"[0.06, 0.11]",0.154,1387,"[0.141, 0.169]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.128,0.031
-71,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514 (zero shot),0.174,680,"[0.165, 0.183]",0.134,31,"[0.065, 0.201]",0.154,711,"[0.119, 0.188]",Yes,<0.01,No,0.91,0.0,1.551,61%,0.15,0.015
-71,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (zero shot),0.165,680,"[0.157, 0.173]",0.143,31,"[0.066, 0.214]",0.154,711,"[0.115, 0.19]",Yes,<0.01,No,0.87,0.05,3.952,61%,0.15,0.015
-74,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-11-20 (scratchpad with crowd forecast with web search),0.192,922,"[0.183, 0.202]",0.12,68,"[0.086, 0.157]",0.156,990,"[0.138, 0.175]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,60%,0.168,0.017
-74,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.212,1269,"[0.202, 0.221]",0.101,118,"[0.076, 0.123]",0.156,1387,"[0.143, 0.168]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.126,0.029
-76,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (scratchpad),0.173,3207,"[0.169, 0.178]",0.143,172,"[0.112, 0.174]",0.158,3379,"[0.142, 0.174]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.15,0.017
-76,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.229,3086,"[0.224, 0.234]",0.088,218,"[0.069, 0.109]",0.158,3304,"[0.149, 0.169]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.14,0.021
-76,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (zero shot),0.158,680,"[0.149, 0.168]",0.157,31,"[0.108, 0.214]",0.158,711,"[0.132, 0.186]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.98,0.0,0.0,60%,0.146,0.011
-79,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.199,1269,"[0.192, 0.207]",0.118,118,"[0.091, 0.144]",0.159,1387,"[0.144, 0.172]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.124,0.026
-79,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-4-Scout-17B-16E-Instruct (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.23,4378,"[0.226, 0.235]",0.087,256,"[0.073, 0.103]",0.159,4634,"[0.151, 0.167]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.144,0.02
-79,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-11-20 (scratchpad with web search),0.192,922,"[0.183, 0.202]",0.125,68,"[0.092, 0.159]",0.159,990,"[0.141, 0.177]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.165,0.014
-79,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-11-20 (zero shot with web search),0.188,922,"[0.179, 0.197]",0.13,68,"[0.085, 0.177]",0.159,990,"[0.136, 0.183]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.98,0.0,0.0,60%,0.165,0.014
-79,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.201,4934,"[0.197, 0.205]",0.117,320,"[0.102, 0.131]",0.159,5254,"[0.151, 0.166]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.139,0.019
-84,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.224,2174,"[0.216, 0.231]",0.097,166,"[0.073, 0.122]",0.16,2340,"[0.148, 0.174]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.131,0.021
-84,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news),0.19,1269,"[0.182, 0.197]",0.131,118,"[0.099, 0.164]",0.16,1387,"[0.144, 0.177]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.122,0.025
-84,ForecastBench,Meta,Meta-Llama-3.1-405B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot),0.2,1848,"[0.195, 0.205]",0.121,102,"[0.09, 0.155]",0.16,1950,"[0.144, 0.177]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.136,0.015
-84,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.22,1269,"[0.211, 0.228]",0.1,118,"[0.078, 0.122]",0.16,1387,"[0.148, 0.171]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.122,0.025
-88,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (zero shot),0.193,3698,"[0.188, 0.197]",0.129,249,"[0.11, 0.15]",0.161,3947,"[0.151, 0.171]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.149,0.017
-88,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad),0.191,10915,"[0.189, 0.194]",0.13,701,"[0.118, 0.141]",0.161,11616,"[0.154, 0.166]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.145,0.016
-90,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (zero shot),0.198,4620,"[0.195, 0.202]",0.125,317,"[0.109, 0.142]",0.162,4937,"[0.154, 0.17]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.151,0.015
-90,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot),0.193,11593,"[0.191, 0.196]",0.13,738,"[0.115, 0.144]",0.162,12331,"[0.154, 0.168]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.145,0.015
-90,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Pro (zero shot),0.153,680,"[0.143, 0.161]",0.17,31,"[0.066, 0.273]",0.162,711,"[0.108, 0.213]",Yes,<0.01,No,0.88,0.3,5.353,60%,0.142,0.007
-90,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.212,1269,"[0.202, 0.222]",0.112,118,"[0.084, 0.139]",0.162,1387,"[0.147, 0.176]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.12,0.023
-94,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-2025-08-07 (zero shot),0.157,680,"[0.147, 0.166]",0.17,31,"[0.095, 0.257]",0.163,711,"[0.125, 0.206]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.95,0.0,0.4,60%,0.141,0.006
-94,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.238,1269,"[0.23, 0.245]",0.089,118,"[0.067, 0.114]",0.163,1387,"[0.152, 0.177]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.119,0.022
-94,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (scratchpad),0.188,922,"[0.183, 0.194]",0.138,68,"[0.103, 0.173]",0.163,990,"[0.145, 0.181]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.161,0.01
-97,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.214,1269,"[0.205, 0.222]",0.115,118,"[0.089, 0.14]",0.164,1387,"[0.15, 0.177]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.118,0.021
-98,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad),0.199,1269,"[0.192, 0.207]",0.131,118,"[0.099, 0.164]",0.165,1387,"[0.148, 0.182]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.117,0.02
-98,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot),0.199,4934,"[0.195, 0.202]",0.131,320,"[0.113, 0.149]",0.165,5254,"[0.156, 0.174]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.132,0.013
-100,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (scratchpad),0.185,5023,"[0.181, 0.188]",0.148,270,"[0.129, 0.166]",0.166,5293,"[0.157, 0.176]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.142,0.007
-101,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.234,1269,"[0.225, 0.244]",0.1,118,"[0.073, 0.132]",0.167,1387,"[0.153, 0.184]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.115,0.018
-101,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Mini-2025-08-07 (zero shot),0.168,680,"[0.158, 0.177]",0.166,31,"[0.103, 0.241]",0.167,711,"[0.135, 0.204]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,59%,0.137,0.002
-101,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot),0.219,6468,"[0.215, 0.222]",0.115,419,"[0.1, 0.133]",0.167,6887,"[0.159, 0.176]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.142,0.009
-104,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (scratchpad),0.201,6468,"[0.198, 0.204]",0.138,419,"[0.124, 0.152]",0.169,6887,"[0.162, 0.177]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.139,0.007
-105,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news),0.212,1269,"[0.202, 0.221]",0.128,118,"[0.097, 0.159]",0.17,1387,"[0.153, 0.186]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
-105,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.215,1269,"[0.206, 0.223]",0.125,118,"[0.096, 0.152]",0.17,1387,"[0.154, 0.184]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
-105,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.239,1269,"[0.227, 0.25]",0.101,118,"[0.069, 0.136]",0.17,1387,"[0.153, 0.188]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
-105,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.205,1269,"[0.195, 0.213]",0.136,118,"[0.105, 0.165]",0.17,1387,"[0.154, 0.186]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
-105,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.22,1269,"[0.212, 0.229]",0.12,118,"[0.095, 0.148]",0.17,1387,"[0.157, 0.185]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
-105,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.233,1269,"[0.223, 0.243]",0.107,118,"[0.078, 0.138]",0.17,1387,"[0.155, 0.185]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
-105,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad),0.207,1269,"[0.198, 0.215]",0.133,118,"[0.104, 0.164]",0.17,1387,"[0.154, 0.186]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
-112,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-05-13 (zero shot),0.215,6434,"[0.212, 0.219]",0.126,384,"[0.11, 0.143]",0.171,6818,"[0.162, 0.179]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.137,0.007
-112,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (scratchpad),0.211,1835,"[0.203, 0.218]",0.132,122,"[0.111, 0.153]",0.171,1957,"[0.16, 0.182]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.142,0.009
-114,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news),0.212,1269,"[0.202, 0.222]",0.133,118,"[0.102, 0.164]",0.172,1387,"[0.156, 0.188]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.11,0.013
-114,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.241,1269,"[0.227, 0.254]",0.103,118,"[0.074, 0.136]",0.172,1387,"[0.156, 0.189]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.11,0.013
-116,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.23,1269,"[0.221, 0.239]",0.117,118,"[0.096, 0.136]",0.173,1387,"[0.161, 0.184]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.109,0.012
-116,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad),0.209,1269,"[0.199, 0.219]",0.137,118,"[0.106, 0.166]",0.173,1387,"[0.157, 0.188]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.109,0.012
-118,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-4-Scout-17B-16E-Instruct (zero shot),0.23,4378,"[0.226, 0.235]",0.117,256,"[0.099, 0.135]",0.174,4634,"[0.165, 0.183]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.13,0.005
-119,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot),0.215,1848,"[0.209, 0.221]",0.136,102,"[0.104, 0.167]",0.175,1950,"[0.159, 0.191]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.121,0.0
-120,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-20250514 (scratchpad),0.172,681,"[0.164, 0.18]",0.181,33,"[0.121, 0.254]",0.176,714,"[0.146, 0.213]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.15,0.001
-120,ForecastBench,Moonshot,Kimi-K2-Instruct (zero shot),0.198,2039,"[0.191, 0.205]",0.154,101,"[0.112, 0.199]",0.176,2140,"[0.155, 0.199]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.142,-0.005
-120,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Nano-2025-08-07 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.199,680,"[0.185, 0.213]",0.153,31,"[0.103, 0.215]",0.176,711,"[0.149, 0.208]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.128,-0.008
-120,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.207,1269,"[0.2, 0.215]",0.144,118,"[0.118, 0.172]",0.176,1387,"[0.162, 0.189]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.106,0.009
-120,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Naive Forecaster,0.299,11593,"[0.294, 0.303]",0.054,738,"[0.045, 0.064]",0.176,12331,"[0.171, 0.182]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.131,0.0
-125,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.21,1269,"[0.201, 0.219]",0.145,118,"[0.118, 0.171]",0.177,1387,"[0.163, 0.191]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.105,0.008
-125,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.224,2174,"[0.216, 0.231]",0.131,166,"[0.098, 0.165]",0.177,2340,"[0.16, 0.195]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.114,0.004
-125,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news),0.205,1269,"[0.195, 0.213]",0.148,118,"[0.113, 0.182]",0.177,1387,"[0.158, 0.193]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.106,0.009
-125,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (scratchpad),0.197,929,"[0.191, 0.203]",0.157,67,"[0.125, 0.193]",0.177,996,"[0.161, 0.195]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.138,-0.007
-129,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (scratchpad),0.214,1269,"[0.205, 0.222]",0.142,118,"[0.115, 0.169]",0.178,1387,"[0.164, 0.192]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.104,0.007
-129,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot),0.225,1269,"[0.215, 0.235]",0.13,118,"[0.095, 0.167]",0.178,1387,"[0.159, 0.196]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.104,0.007
-129,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot),0.197,4934,"[0.193, 0.201]",0.159,320,"[0.137, 0.181]",0.178,5254,"[0.167, 0.189]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.119,0.0
-129,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.228,1269,"[0.22, 0.236]",0.128,118,"[0.097, 0.159]",0.178,1387,"[0.163, 0.194]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.104,0.007
-133,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad),0.207,1269,"[0.2, 0.215]",0.152,118,"[0.124, 0.178]",0.18,1387,"[0.165, 0.194]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.103,0.005
-133,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2407 (zero shot),0.215,6434,"[0.211, 0.218]",0.144,384,"[0.127, 0.162]",0.18,6818,"[0.171, 0.189]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.128,-0.002
-135,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.232,1269,"[0.222, 0.242]",0.132,118,"[0.104, 0.161]",0.182,1387,"[0.168, 0.197]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.1,0.003
-136,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.242,1269,"[0.23, 0.254]",0.126,118,"[0.098, 0.153]",0.184,1387,"[0.169, 0.199]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.098,0.001
-137,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad),0.201,4934,"[0.197, 0.205]",0.169,320,"[0.151, 0.186]",0.185,5254,"[0.176, 0.194]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.113,-0.007
-137,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 1),0.237,1269,"[0.226, 0.249]",0.132,118,"[0.096, 0.168]",0.185,1387,"[0.166, 0.204]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.098,0.0
-139,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad),0.215,1269,"[0.206, 0.223]",0.158,118,"[0.125, 0.189]",0.186,1387,"[0.168, 0.202]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.096,-0.001
-139,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (zero shot),0.21,1269,"[0.201, 0.218]",0.163,118,"[0.133, 0.191]",0.186,1387,"[0.171, 0.201]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.096,-0.001
-141,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news),0.21,1269,"[0.201, 0.219]",0.164,118,"[0.134, 0.195]",0.187,1387,"[0.171, 0.203]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.095,-0.002
-141,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.25,1835,"[0.241, 0.26]",0.124,122,"[0.088, 0.164]",0.187,1957,"[0.168, 0.207]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.126,-0.007
-141,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) geometric mean with news",0.254,1269,"[0.246, 0.261]",0.121,118,"[0.095, 0.146]",0.187,1387,"[0.173, 0.2]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.095,-0.002
-144,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.232,1269,"[0.222, 0.242]",0.144,118,"[0.113, 0.174]",0.188,1387,"[0.172, 0.203]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.094,-0.003
-144,ForecastBench,Z.ai,GLM-4.5-Air-FP8 (zero shot),0.197,680,"[0.185, 0.21]",0.178,31,"[0.113, 0.25]",0.188,711,"[0.155, 0.224]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.116,-0.019
-146,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) median with news",0.254,1269,"[0.246, 0.262]",0.124,118,"[0.098, 0.15]",0.189,1387,"[0.175, 0.202]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.093,-0.004
-146,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) geometric mean log odds with news",0.254,1269,"[0.246, 0.262]",0.124,118,"[0.097, 0.149]",0.189,1387,"[0.175, 0.202]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.093,-0.004
-146,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 2),0.226,1269,"[0.215, 0.237]",0.151,118,"[0.115, 0.186]",0.189,1387,"[0.169, 0.206]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.094,-0.004
-146,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.256,1269,"[0.247, 0.265]",0.122,118,"[0.096, 0.148]",0.189,1387,"[0.175, 0.203]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.093,-0.004
-146,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.219,1269,"[0.209, 0.228]",0.159,118,"[0.129, 0.189]",0.189,1387,"[0.173, 0.204]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.093,-0.004
-151,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.22,1269,"[0.212, 0.229]",0.16,118,"[0.131, 0.189]",0.19,1387,"[0.176, 0.205]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.092,-0.005
-151,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3),0.219,1269,"[0.21, 0.228]",0.162,118,"[0.127, 0.196]",0.19,1387,"[0.172, 0.208]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.092,-0.005
-151,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (zero shot),0.25,1835,"[0.241, 0.26]",0.13,122,"[0.099, 0.164]",0.19,1957,"[0.174, 0.208]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.123,-0.011
-154,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot),0.22,1269,"[0.211, 0.228]",0.162,118,"[0.131, 0.193]",0.191,1387,"[0.174, 0.207]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.091,-0.006
-155,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash (zero shot),0.17,680,"[0.159, 0.182]",0.215,31,"[0.123, 0.319]",0.192,711,"[0.146, 0.245]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.112,-0.024
-155,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.241,1269,"[0.227, 0.254]",0.144,118,"[0.103, 0.186]",0.192,1387,"[0.17, 0.215]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.09,-0.007
-157,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 2),0.215,1269,"[0.206, 0.223]",0.171,118,"[0.134, 0.209]",0.193,1387,"[0.174, 0.213]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.089,-0.008
-158,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot),0.233,1269,"[0.223, 0.243]",0.154,118,"[0.117, 0.193]",0.194,1387,"[0.174, 0.213]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.089,-0.009
-158,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.245,1269,"[0.233, 0.258]",0.143,118,"[0.111, 0.177]",0.194,1387,"[0.177, 0.212]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.088,-0.009
-158,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2411 (zero shot),0.218,2039,"[0.211, 0.225]",0.171,101,"[0.139, 0.205]",0.194,2140,"[0.178, 0.212]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.124,-0.023
-158,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.229,3086,"[0.224, 0.234]",0.158,218,"[0.134, 0.182]",0.194,3304,"[0.181, 0.206]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.104,-0.014
-162,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.229,1269,"[0.218, 0.238]",0.164,118,"[0.134, 0.193]",0.196,1387,"[0.18, 0.212]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.086,-0.011
-163,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news),0.219,1269,"[0.209, 0.228]",0.175,118,"[0.144, 0.208]",0.197,1387,"[0.18, 0.214]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.085,-0.012
-164,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.234,1269,"[0.225, 0.244]",0.163,118,"[0.126, 0.201]",0.198,1387,"[0.18, 0.218]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.084,-0.013
-164,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 1),0.228,1269,"[0.217, 0.238]",0.168,118,"[0.135, 0.202]",0.198,1387,"[0.181, 0.216]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.084,-0.013
-166,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Nano-2025-08-07 (zero shot),0.199,680,"[0.185, 0.213]",0.201,31,"[0.137, 0.277]",0.2,711,"[0.166, 0.24]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.104,-0.032
-166,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.262,4934,"[0.257, 0.267]",0.138,320,"[0.125, 0.15]",0.2,5254,"[0.193, 0.206]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.098,-0.022
-168,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad),0.242,1269,"[0.23, 0.254]",0.164,118,"[0.132, 0.196]",0.203,1387,"[0.186, 0.22]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,55%,0.079,-0.018
-168,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news),0.229,1269,"[0.218, 0.238]",0.178,118,"[0.142, 0.212]",0.203,1387,"[0.184, 0.221]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,55%,0.079,-0.018
-170,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.23,1269,"[0.221, 0.239]",0.183,118,"[0.155, 0.211]",0.207,1387,"[0.191, 0.221]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,55%,0.076,-0.022
-170,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot),0.238,1269,"[0.23, 0.245]",0.176,118,"[0.141, 0.211]",0.207,1387,"[0.189, 0.224]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,55%,0.075,-0.022
-172,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news),0.245,1269,"[0.233, 0.258]",0.174,118,"[0.137, 0.21]",0.21,1387,"[0.19, 0.23]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.072,-0.025
-172,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.252,1269,"[0.241, 0.262]",0.169,118,"[0.14, 0.197]",0.21,1387,"[0.195, 0.225]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.072,-0.025
-174,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 2),0.25,1269,"[0.237, 0.263]",0.178,118,"[0.136, 0.221]",0.214,1387,"[0.193, 0.237]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.068,-0.029
-175,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot),0.239,1269,"[0.227, 0.25]",0.192,118,"[0.15, 0.234]",0.215,1387,"[0.195, 0.237]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.067,-0.03
-176,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.256,1269,"[0.247, 0.265]",0.181,118,"[0.15, 0.213]",0.219,1387,"[0.203, 0.236]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,53%,0.063,-0.034
-177,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot),0.262,4934,"[0.257, 0.267]",0.183,320,"[0.169, 0.197]",0.222,5254,"[0.215, 0.23]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,53%,0.075,-0.044
-178,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.262,1269,"[0.253, 0.27]",0.202,118,"[0.173, 0.231]",0.232,1387,"[0.217, 0.247]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,52%,0.051,-0.047
-178,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.265,1269,"[0.255, 0.275]",0.199,118,"[0.169, 0.23]",0.232,1387,"[0.215, 0.249]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,52%,0.05,-0.047
-180,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.262,1269,"[0.253, 0.27]",0.204,118,"[0.169, 0.236]",0.233,1387,"[0.215, 0.249]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,52%,0.049,-0.048
-181,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad),0.265,1269,"[0.255, 0.275]",0.214,118,"[0.184, 0.246]",0.239,1387,"[0.223, 0.256]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,51%,0.043,-0.054
-182,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad),0.275,1269,"[0.264, 0.285]",0.211,118,"[0.176, 0.248]",0.243,1387,"[0.224, 0.263]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,51%,0.039,-0.058
-182,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.275,1269,"[0.264, 0.285]",0.212,118,"[0.178, 0.248]",0.243,1387,"[0.226, 0.262]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,51%,0.039,-0.058
-184,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.293,1269,"[0.281, 0.305]",0.196,118,"[0.164, 0.228]",0.245,1387,"[0.227, 0.262]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,51%,0.038,-0.06
-185,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.282,1269,"[0.272, 0.293]",0.211,118,"[0.17, 0.253]",0.247,1387,"[0.225, 0.268]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,50%,0.036,-0.062
-186,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news),0.293,1269,"[0.281, 0.305]",0.206,118,"[0.176, 0.237]",0.25,1387,"[0.234, 0.266]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,50%,0.032,-0.065
-186,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Always 0.5,0.25,11593,"[0.25, 0.25]",0.25,738,"[0.25, 0.25]",0.25,12331,"[0.25, 0.25]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,50%,0.057,-0.074
-188,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.426,1269,"[0.412, 0.44]",0.124,118,"[0.089, 0.161]",0.275,1387,"[0.256, 0.294]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,48%,0.007,-0.09
-189,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.282,1269,"[0.272, 0.293]",0.3,118,"[0.259, 0.347]",0.291,1387,"[0.269, 0.315]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,46%,-0.009,-0.106
-190,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Always 0,0.426,11593,"[0.417, 0.434]",0.168,738,"[0.142, 0.194]",0.297,12331,"[0.283, 0.31]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,46%,0.01,-0.12
-191,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Random Uniform,0.331,11593,"[0.326, 0.336]",0.332,738,"[0.312, 0.352]",0.332,12331,"[0.321, 0.342]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,42%,-0.025,-0.155
-192,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot),0.426,1269,"[0.412, 0.44]",0.24,118,"[0.194, 0.288]",0.333,1387,"[0.309, 0.358]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,42%,-0.051,-0.148
-193,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Always 1,0.574,11593,"[0.566, 0.583]",0.832,738,"[0.806, 0.858]",0.703,12331,"[0.69, 0.717]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,16%,-0.396,-0.527
+1,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Superforecaster median forecast,0.152,477,"[0.142, 0.162]",0.035,54,"[0.016, 0.054]",0.093,531,"[0.083, 0.104]",—,—,Yes,<0.001,94.297,100.0,69%,0.185,0.097
+2,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Pro (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.153,680,"[0.144, 0.162]",0.066,31,"[0.034, 0.097]",0.109,711,"[0.093, 0.126]",Likely,0.06,Likely,0.02,5.003,91.696,67%,0.195,0.06
+3,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.158,680,"[0.149, 0.167]",0.062,31,"[0.049, 0.076]",0.11,711,"[0.102, 0.118]",Yes,<0.01,Yes,<0.01,0.1,99.9,67%,0.194,0.059
+4,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-2025-08-07 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.157,680,"[0.148, 0.166]",0.067,31,"[0.052, 0.087]",0.112,711,"[0.103, 0.123]",Yes,<0.01,Yes,<0.01,0.0,96.398,67%,0.192,0.057
+5,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.175,1851,"[0.171, 0.179]",0.051,135,"[0.042, 0.062]",0.113,1986,"[0.108, 0.119]",Yes,<0.001,Yes,<0.01,0.0,99.4,66%,0.206,0.059
+6,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.165,934,"[0.158, 0.171]",0.067,60,"[0.05, 0.085]",0.116,994,"[0.107, 0.126]",Yes,<0.001,Likely,0.02,0.0,89.045,66%,0.185,0.066
+7,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.173,1851,"[0.169, 0.178]",0.061,135,"[0.048, 0.074]",0.117,1986,"[0.111, 0.124]",Yes,<0.001,Likely,0.03,0.0,80.39,66%,0.203,0.055
+7,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.176,6468,"[0.173, 0.179]",0.057,420,"[0.048, 0.068]",0.117,6888,"[0.112, 0.122]",Yes,<0.001,Likely,0.02,0.0,93.047,66%,0.193,0.06
+9,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-R1 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.174,4620,"[0.172, 0.178]",0.066,317,"[0.056, 0.077]",0.12,4937,"[0.115, 0.126]",Yes,<0.001,Likely,0.06,0.0,46.423,65%,0.193,0.057
+10,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.183,6468,"[0.181, 0.186]",0.06,420,"[0.05, 0.071]",0.122,6888,"[0.116, 0.128]",Yes,<0.001,Likely,0.09,0.0,25.313,65%,0.187,0.055
+11,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.175,4141,"[0.169, 0.181]",0.071,233,"[0.056, 0.086]",0.123,4374,"[0.115, 0.131]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.16,0.0,15.008,65%,0.183,0.053
+12,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.173,934,"[0.166, 0.18]",0.075,60,"[0.056, 0.096]",0.124,994,"[0.114, 0.135]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.21,0.0,19.46,65%,0.177,0.058
+13,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.194,6468,"[0.191, 0.197]",0.057,420,"[0.047, 0.068]",0.125,6888,"[0.12, 0.131]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.24,0.0,0.1,65%,0.184,0.051
+13,ForecastBench,xAI,Grok-beta (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.196,1835,"[0.191, 0.201]",0.055,122,"[0.043, 0.067]",0.125,1957,"[0.119, 0.132]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.25,0.0,2.201,65%,0.188,0.055
+13,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.174,680,"[0.165, 0.183]",0.076,31,"[0.055, 0.107]",0.125,711,"[0.113, 0.141]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.29,0.0,16.558,65%,0.179,0.044
+16,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Mini-2025-08-07 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.168,680,"[0.159, 0.177]",0.084,31,"[0.06, 0.114]",0.126,711,"[0.113, 0.142]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.33,0.0,12.956,65%,0.178,0.043
+16,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.193,3698,"[0.188, 0.197]",0.06,249,"[0.05, 0.072]",0.126,3947,"[0.121, 0.132]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.29,0.0,0.05,64%,0.184,0.052
+16,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.17,3207,"[0.166, 0.175]",0.082,173,"[0.062, 0.102]",0.126,3380,"[0.116, 0.137]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.31,0.0,8.704,64%,0.182,0.049
+19,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.17,680,"[0.159, 0.181]",0.085,31,"[0.053, 0.13]",0.128,711,"[0.111, 0.15]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.40,0.0,17.909,64%,0.177,0.041
+19,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.165,680,"[0.157, 0.173]",0.09,31,"[0.054, 0.152]",0.128,711,"[0.109, 0.158]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.39,0.0,33.267,64%,0.177,0.041
+21,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.185,5023,"[0.181, 0.188]",0.074,272,"[0.062, 0.087]",0.129,5295,"[0.123, 0.136]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.45,0.0,0.0,64%,0.179,0.045
+21,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-20250514 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.172,681,"[0.163, 0.18]",0.087,33,"[0.056, 0.127]",0.129,714,"[0.114, 0.15]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.46,0.0,13.707,64%,0.197,0.048
+23,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.193,11593,"[0.191, 0.196]",0.067,740,"[0.055, 0.079]",0.13,12333,"[0.124, 0.136]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.51,0.0,0.0,64%,0.177,0.047
+23,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.199,4934,"[0.195, 0.202]",0.061,322,"[0.05, 0.074]",0.13,5256,"[0.124, 0.137]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.50,0.0,0.0,64%,0.167,0.049
+23,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Public median forecast,0.185,477,"[0.171, 0.199]",0.075,54,"[0.055, 0.097]",0.13,531,"[0.117, 0.143]",Yes,<0.001,—,—,0.0,5.603,64%,0.148,0.06
+23,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash-Preview-04-17 (zero shot),0.167,934,"[0.157, 0.176]",0.094,60,"[0.062, 0.132]",0.13,994,"[0.114, 0.15]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.49,0.0,9.855,64%,0.17,0.051
+23,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.191,10915,"[0.189, 0.194]",0.068,703,"[0.057, 0.079]",0.13,11618,"[0.124, 0.135]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.48,0.0,0.0,64%,0.176,0.048
+23,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.193,6468,"[0.191, 0.196]",0.066,420,"[0.054, 0.08]",0.13,6888,"[0.124, 0.136]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.50,0.0,0.0,64%,0.179,0.047
+29,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash-Preview-04-17 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.167,934,"[0.157, 0.176]",0.096,60,"[0.068, 0.129]",0.131,994,"[0.117, 0.148]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.53,0.0,3.952,64%,0.169,0.05
+29,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.198,4620,"[0.195, 0.202]",0.065,317,"[0.054, 0.076]",0.131,4937,"[0.126, 0.138]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.59,0.0,0.0,64%,0.182,0.046
+29,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.181,4821,"[0.176, 0.185]",0.081,264,"[0.065, 0.099]",0.131,5085,"[0.122, 0.14]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.56,0.0,0.0,64%,0.175,0.044
+32,ForecastBench,Meta,Meta-Llama-3.1-405B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.2,1848,"[0.195, 0.205]",0.065,103,"[0.051, 0.081]",0.132,1951,"[0.125, 0.141]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.63,0.0,0.0,64%,0.164,0.044
+33,ForecastBench,Z.ai,GLM-4.5-Air-FP8 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.197,680,"[0.184, 0.21]",0.071,31,"[0.054, 0.091]",0.134,711,"[0.124, 0.146]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.71,0.0,0.15,63%,0.17,0.035
+34,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (zero shot),0.165,934,"[0.158, 0.171]",0.107,60,"[0.069, 0.151]",0.136,994,"[0.116, 0.159]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.67,0.0,3.652,63%,0.165,0.046
+34,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.201,6468,"[0.198, 0.204]",0.071,420,"[0.06, 0.083]",0.136,6888,"[0.131, 0.142]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.82,0.0,0.0,63%,0.173,0.041
+34,ForecastBench,Moonshot,Kimi-K2-Instruct (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.198,2039,"[0.191, 0.206]",0.073,101,"[0.056, 0.092]",0.136,2140,"[0.127, 0.146]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.79,0.0,0.0,63%,0.183,0.036
+37,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.197,4934,"[0.193, 0.201]",0.078,322,"[0.062, 0.093]",0.137,5256,"[0.129, 0.146]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.90,0.0,0.0,63%,0.16,0.041
+37,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (scratchpad),0.173,934,"[0.166, 0.18]",0.1,60,"[0.069, 0.138]",0.137,994,"[0.121, 0.156]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.73,0.0,0.45,63%,0.164,0.045
+39,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.173,3207,"[0.169, 0.178]",0.103,173,"[0.08, 0.127]",0.138,3380,"[0.127, 0.15]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.83,0.0,0.0,63%,0.17,0.037
+39,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (scratchpad),0.176,6468,"[0.173, 0.179]",0.101,420,"[0.088, 0.114]",0.138,6888,"[0.132, 0.145]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.89,0.0,0.0,63%,0.171,0.038
+39,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (zero shot),0.175,1851,"[0.171, 0.179]",0.101,135,"[0.076, 0.127]",0.138,1986,"[0.125, 0.151]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.82,0.0,0.25,63%,0.182,0.034
+39,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-05-13 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.215,6434,"[0.212, 0.219]",0.061,386,"[0.051, 0.072]",0.138,6820,"[0.133, 0.145]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.90,0.0,0.0,63%,0.169,0.04
+39,ForecastBench,Qwen,QwQ-32B-Preview (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.208,2769,"[0.201, 0.215]",0.068,182,"[0.054, 0.082]",0.138,2951,"[0.13, 0.146]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.86,0.0,0.0,63%,0.171,0.043
+44,ForecastBench,Z.ai,GLM-4.5-Air-FP8 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.191,680,"[0.178, 0.204]",0.09,31,"[0.06, 0.129]",0.14,711,"[0.124, 0.161]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.82,0.0,0.0,63%,0.164,0.029
+44,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.173,680,"[0.164, 0.183]",0.107,31,"[0.057, 0.173]",0.14,711,"[0.115, 0.173]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.72,0.0,4.002,63%,0.164,0.029
+46,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.215,1848,"[0.209, 0.221]",0.068,103,"[0.054, 0.084]",0.141,1951,"[0.134, 0.15]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.94,0.0,0.0,62%,0.155,0.035
+46,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2407 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.215,6434,"[0.212, 0.218]",0.066,386,"[0.055, 0.079]",0.141,6820,"[0.135, 0.147]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.94,0.0,0.0,63%,0.167,0.037
+48,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.197,929,"[0.191, 0.203]",0.087,67,"[0.068, 0.108]",0.142,996,"[0.132, 0.153]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.94,0.0,0.0,62%,0.173,0.028
+48,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.188,922,"[0.182, 0.194]",0.096,68,"[0.071, 0.123]",0.142,990,"[0.129, 0.157]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.90,0.0,0.0,62%,0.182,0.031
+50,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.21,1269,"[0.201, 0.219]",0.077,118,"[0.058, 0.097]",0.143,1387,"[0.132, 0.154]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,62%,0.139,0.042
+51,ForecastBench,xAI,Grok-beta (zero shot),0.196,1835,"[0.191, 0.201]",0.093,122,"[0.069, 0.117]",0.144,1957,"[0.132, 0.157]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.94,0.0,0.0,62%,0.169,0.036
+51,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (scratchpad),0.173,1851,"[0.169, 0.178]",0.114,135,"[0.092, 0.136]",0.144,1986,"[0.133, 0.155]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.95,0.0,0.0,62%,0.176,0.028
+53,ForecastBench,Mistral,Magistral-Medium-2506 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.196,1361,"[0.188, 0.204]",0.094,64,"[0.074, 0.116]",0.145,1425,"[0.134, 0.157]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.97,0.0,0.0,62%,0.171,0.028
+53,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.19,1269,"[0.182, 0.197]",0.101,118,"[0.076, 0.127]",0.145,1387,"[0.132, 0.159]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,62%,0.137,0.04
+53,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-R1 (scratchpad),0.174,3698,"[0.171, 0.178]",0.116,249,"[0.101, 0.132]",0.145,3947,"[0.137, 0.153]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.98,0.0,0.0,62%,0.166,0.033
+56,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.219,6468,"[0.215, 0.223]",0.073,420,"[0.06, 0.086]",0.146,6888,"[0.139, 0.153]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,62%,0.163,0.031
+57,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2411 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.218,2039,"[0.212, 0.225]",0.077,101,"[0.06, 0.097]",0.148,2140,"[0.139, 0.158]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,62%,0.171,0.024
+57,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (scratchpad),0.194,6468,"[0.191, 0.197]",0.103,420,"[0.088, 0.119]",0.148,6888,"[0.141, 0.157]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.161,0.028
+59,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-11-20 (zero shot with crowd forecast with web search),0.188,922,"[0.179, 0.197]",0.11,68,"[0.069, 0.16]",0.149,990,"[0.128, 0.174]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.94,0.0,0.2,61%,0.175,0.024
+60,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.211,1835,"[0.203, 0.218]",0.089,122,"[0.067, 0.114]",0.15,1957,"[0.138, 0.163]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,61%,0.164,0.03
+60,ForecastBench,Qwen,QwQ-32B-Preview (scratchpad),0.197,1849,"[0.189, 0.205]",0.102,121,"[0.079, 0.124]",0.15,1970,"[0.138, 0.162]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.98,0.0,0.0,61%,0.153,0.032
+62,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Imputed Forecaster,0.25,11593,"[0.25, 0.25]",0.054,740,"[0.045, 0.064]",0.152,12333,"[0.147, 0.157]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.155,0.025
+62,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (zero shot),0.183,6468,"[0.181, 0.186]",0.122,420,"[0.104, 0.14]",0.152,6888,"[0.144, 0.162]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.157,0.024
+62,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.209,1269,"[0.2, 0.219]",0.094,118,"[0.072, 0.117]",0.152,1387,"[0.14, 0.164]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.131,0.034
+62,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (zero shot),0.17,3207,"[0.166, 0.175]",0.133,173,"[0.102, 0.165]",0.152,3380,"[0.135, 0.169]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.98,0.0,0.0,61%,0.156,0.023
+62,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.207,1269,"[0.198, 0.215]",0.097,118,"[0.07, 0.128]",0.152,1387,"[0.138, 0.168]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.131,0.034
+67,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (scratchpad),0.175,4141,"[0.169, 0.181]",0.131,233,"[0.105, 0.159]",0.153,4374,"[0.139, 0.167]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,61%,0.154,0.024
+67,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (zero shot),0.193,6468,"[0.191, 0.196]",0.113,420,"[0.096, 0.131]",0.153,6888,"[0.145, 0.162]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.156,0.024
+67,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (scratchpad),0.173,680,"[0.164, 0.183]",0.132,31,"[0.078, 0.197]",0.153,711,"[0.125, 0.185]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.92,0.0,0.05,61%,0.151,0.016
+67,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (zero shot),0.181,4821,"[0.176, 0.185]",0.125,264,"[0.101, 0.152]",0.153,5085,"[0.14, 0.166]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,61%,0.153,0.022
+71,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.225,1269,"[0.215, 0.236]",0.083,118,"[0.06, 0.11]",0.154,1387,"[0.141, 0.169]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.128,0.031
+71,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514 (zero shot),0.174,680,"[0.165, 0.183]",0.135,31,"[0.07, 0.201]",0.154,711,"[0.122, 0.188]",Yes,<0.01,No,0.91,0.0,1.551,61%,0.15,0.015
+71,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (zero shot),0.165,680,"[0.157, 0.173]",0.144,31,"[0.067, 0.217]",0.154,711,"[0.116, 0.191]",Yes,<0.01,No,0.88,0.05,3.602,61%,0.15,0.015
+74,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-11-20 (scratchpad with crowd forecast with web search),0.192,922,"[0.183, 0.202]",0.12,68,"[0.086, 0.159]",0.156,990,"[0.139, 0.177]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,60%,0.168,0.017
+74,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.212,1269,"[0.201, 0.222]",0.101,118,"[0.078, 0.126]",0.156,1387,"[0.144, 0.171]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.126,0.029
+76,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (scratchpad),0.173,3207,"[0.169, 0.178]",0.142,173,"[0.112, 0.174]",0.158,3380,"[0.142, 0.174]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.15,0.017
+76,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (zero shot),0.158,680,"[0.149, 0.167]",0.158,31,"[0.107, 0.217]",0.158,711,"[0.132, 0.187]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.97,0.0,0.0,60%,0.146,0.011
+78,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-4-Scout-17B-16E-Instruct (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.23,4378,"[0.226, 0.235]",0.088,257,"[0.073, 0.103]",0.159,4635,"[0.151, 0.167]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.144,0.02
+78,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.199,1269,"[0.192, 0.207]",0.118,118,"[0.091, 0.147]",0.159,1387,"[0.145, 0.173]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.124,0.026
+78,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.229,3086,"[0.224, 0.235]",0.088,219,"[0.069, 0.109]",0.159,3305,"[0.149, 0.17]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.139,0.021
+78,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-11-20 (scratchpad with web search),0.192,922,"[0.183, 0.202]",0.125,68,"[0.092, 0.162]",0.159,990,"[0.141, 0.178]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,60%,0.165,0.014
+78,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-11-20 (zero shot with web search),0.188,922,"[0.179, 0.197]",0.131,68,"[0.085, 0.18]",0.159,990,"[0.136, 0.185]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,60%,0.165,0.014
+78,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.201,4934,"[0.197, 0.205]",0.117,322,"[0.102, 0.133]",0.159,5256,"[0.151, 0.167]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.138,0.019
+84,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.224,2174,"[0.217, 0.231]",0.095,167,"[0.071, 0.122]",0.16,2341,"[0.147, 0.174]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.131,0.022
+84,ForecastBench,Meta,Meta-Llama-3.1-405B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot),0.2,1848,"[0.195, 0.205]",0.12,103,"[0.089, 0.153]",0.16,1951,"[0.144, 0.177]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.136,0.016
+84,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.22,1269,"[0.212, 0.228]",0.101,118,"[0.079, 0.123]",0.16,1387,"[0.148, 0.172]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.122,0.025
+87,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (zero shot),0.193,3698,"[0.188, 0.197]",0.13,249,"[0.11, 0.15]",0.161,3947,"[0.151, 0.171]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.149,0.017
+87,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot),0.193,11593,"[0.191, 0.196]",0.13,740,"[0.116, 0.144]",0.161,12333,"[0.154, 0.168]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.146,0.015
+87,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad),0.191,10915,"[0.189, 0.194]",0.13,703,"[0.118, 0.142]",0.161,11618,"[0.155, 0.167]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.145,0.016
+87,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news),0.19,1269,"[0.182, 0.197]",0.132,118,"[0.101, 0.164]",0.161,1387,"[0.145, 0.177]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.122,0.025
+91,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Pro (zero shot),0.153,680,"[0.144, 0.162]",0.171,31,"[0.071, 0.273]",0.162,711,"[0.11, 0.212]",Yes,<0.01,No,0.88,0.55,4.902,60%,0.142,0.007
+91,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (zero shot),0.198,4620,"[0.195, 0.202]",0.126,317,"[0.11, 0.142]",0.162,4937,"[0.154, 0.17]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.151,0.015
+91,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.212,1269,"[0.203, 0.221]",0.112,118,"[0.086, 0.14]",0.162,1387,"[0.148, 0.177]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.12,0.023
+94,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (scratchpad),0.188,922,"[0.182, 0.194]",0.138,68,"[0.103, 0.173]",0.163,990,"[0.146, 0.181]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.161,0.01
+95,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-2025-08-07 (zero shot),0.157,680,"[0.148, 0.166]",0.17,31,"[0.092, 0.257]",0.164,711,"[0.124, 0.207]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.94,0.0,0.25,60%,0.141,0.006
+95,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot),0.199,4934,"[0.195, 0.202]",0.13,322,"[0.111, 0.149]",0.164,5256,"[0.155, 0.174]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.133,0.014
+95,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.238,1269,"[0.23, 0.246]",0.09,118,"[0.066, 0.115]",0.164,1387,"[0.151, 0.177]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.119,0.022
+98,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.214,1269,"[0.205, 0.222]",0.116,118,"[0.092, 0.141]",0.165,1387,"[0.152, 0.178]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.118,0.021
+99,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (scratchpad),0.185,5023,"[0.181, 0.188]",0.147,272,"[0.129, 0.167]",0.166,5295,"[0.156, 0.176]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.142,0.008
+99,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad),0.199,1269,"[0.192, 0.207]",0.132,118,"[0.1, 0.168]",0.166,1387,"[0.149, 0.184]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.117,0.02
+101,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot),0.219,6468,"[0.215, 0.223]",0.116,420,"[0.099, 0.133]",0.167,6888,"[0.159, 0.176]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.142,0.009
+101,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Mini-2025-08-07 (zero shot),0.168,680,"[0.159, 0.177]",0.167,31,"[0.104, 0.239]",0.167,711,"[0.135, 0.204]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,59%,0.137,0.002
+103,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.234,1269,"[0.225, 0.244]",0.101,118,"[0.075, 0.131]",0.168,1387,"[0.153, 0.183]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.115,0.018
+104,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news),0.212,1269,"[0.201, 0.222]",0.129,118,"[0.098, 0.16]",0.17,1387,"[0.154, 0.187]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
+104,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.22,1269,"[0.212, 0.229]",0.121,118,"[0.096, 0.148]",0.17,1387,"[0.157, 0.184]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
+104,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.215,1269,"[0.206, 0.223]",0.125,118,"[0.099, 0.152]",0.17,1387,"[0.156, 0.185]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
+104,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.239,1269,"[0.229, 0.25]",0.101,118,"[0.069, 0.137]",0.17,1387,"[0.153, 0.189]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
+104,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.233,1269,"[0.224, 0.243]",0.107,118,"[0.078, 0.139]",0.17,1387,"[0.155, 0.187]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
+104,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (scratchpad),0.201,6468,"[0.198, 0.204]",0.138,420,"[0.125, 0.152]",0.17,6888,"[0.163, 0.177]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.139,0.007
+104,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad),0.207,1269,"[0.198, 0.215]",0.134,118,"[0.104, 0.164]",0.17,1387,"[0.155, 0.186]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
+104,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-05-13 (zero shot),0.215,6434,"[0.212, 0.219]",0.125,386,"[0.109, 0.142]",0.17,6820,"[0.162, 0.179]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.137,0.008
+112,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (scratchpad),0.211,1835,"[0.203, 0.218]",0.132,122,"[0.111, 0.155]",0.171,1957,"[0.16, 0.183]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.142,0.009
+112,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.205,1269,"[0.196, 0.214]",0.136,118,"[0.105, 0.167]",0.171,1387,"[0.155, 0.187]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
+114,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.241,1269,"[0.228, 0.254]",0.104,118,"[0.073, 0.138]",0.172,1387,"[0.155, 0.191]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.11,0.013
+115,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news),0.212,1269,"[0.203, 0.221]",0.134,118,"[0.102, 0.167]",0.173,1387,"[0.156, 0.189]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.11,0.013
+115,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad),0.209,1269,"[0.2, 0.219]",0.137,118,"[0.108, 0.168]",0.173,1387,"[0.158, 0.189]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.109,0.012
+117,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-4-Scout-17B-16E-Instruct (zero shot),0.23,4378,"[0.226, 0.235]",0.117,257,"[0.1, 0.135]",0.174,4635,"[0.165, 0.183]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.13,0.005
+117,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.23,1269,"[0.221, 0.239]",0.117,118,"[0.097, 0.138]",0.174,1387,"[0.163, 0.185]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.109,0.012
+119,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot),0.215,1848,"[0.209, 0.221]",0.135,103,"[0.104, 0.167]",0.175,1951,"[0.159, 0.192]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.121,0.001
+120,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.224,2174,"[0.217, 0.231]",0.129,167,"[0.094, 0.168]",0.176,2341,"[0.158, 0.195]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.114,0.005
+120,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.207,1269,"[0.2, 0.215]",0.145,118,"[0.118, 0.173]",0.176,1387,"[0.162, 0.191]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.106,0.009
+122,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (scratchpad),0.197,929,"[0.191, 0.203]",0.158,67,"[0.126, 0.192]",0.177,996,"[0.161, 0.195]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.138,-0.007
+122,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Nano-2025-08-07 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.199,680,"[0.185, 0.215]",0.154,31,"[0.104, 0.216]",0.177,711,"[0.15, 0.209]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.128,-0.008
+122,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Naive Forecaster,0.299,11593,"[0.294, 0.303]",0.055,740,"[0.046, 0.065]",0.177,12333,"[0.172, 0.182]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.13,0.0
+122,ForecastBench,Moonshot,Kimi-K2-Instruct (zero shot),0.198,2039,"[0.191, 0.206]",0.155,101,"[0.113, 0.199]",0.177,2140,"[0.155, 0.199]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.142,-0.005
+122,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news),0.205,1269,"[0.196, 0.214]",0.149,118,"[0.114, 0.183]",0.177,1387,"[0.159, 0.195]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.106,0.009
+122,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-20250514 (scratchpad),0.172,681,"[0.163, 0.18]",0.182,33,"[0.121, 0.252]",0.177,714,"[0.146, 0.211]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.15,0.001
+128,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (scratchpad),0.214,1269,"[0.205, 0.222]",0.143,118,"[0.117, 0.17]",0.178,1387,"[0.165, 0.192]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.104,0.007
+128,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.21,1269,"[0.202, 0.219]",0.145,118,"[0.118, 0.173]",0.178,1387,"[0.164, 0.191]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.105,0.008
+128,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot),0.225,1269,"[0.215, 0.236]",0.131,118,"[0.096, 0.167]",0.178,1387,"[0.16, 0.197]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.104,0.007
+128,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot),0.197,4934,"[0.193, 0.201]",0.159,322,"[0.137, 0.182]",0.178,5256,"[0.167, 0.19]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.119,0.001
+128,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.228,1269,"[0.22, 0.236]",0.129,118,"[0.099, 0.161]",0.178,1387,"[0.163, 0.195]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.104,0.007
+133,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2407 (zero shot),0.215,6434,"[0.212, 0.218]",0.144,386,"[0.126, 0.161]",0.179,6820,"[0.17, 0.188]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.128,-0.001
+134,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad),0.207,1269,"[0.2, 0.215]",0.152,118,"[0.126, 0.18]",0.18,1387,"[0.166, 0.195]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.103,0.005
+135,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.232,1269,"[0.223, 0.242]",0.133,118,"[0.105, 0.162]",0.183,1387,"[0.167, 0.198]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.1,0.003
+136,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.242,1269,"[0.23, 0.254]",0.127,118,"[0.099, 0.157]",0.184,1387,"[0.169, 0.201]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.098,0.001
+137,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad),0.201,4934,"[0.197, 0.205]",0.168,322,"[0.151, 0.186]",0.185,5256,"[0.176, 0.194]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.112,-0.006
+137,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 1),0.237,1269,"[0.226, 0.249]",0.132,118,"[0.097, 0.17]",0.185,1387,"[0.168, 0.205]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.098,0.0
+139,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad),0.215,1269,"[0.206, 0.223]",0.158,118,"[0.129, 0.189]",0.186,1387,"[0.171, 0.203]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.096,-0.001
+140,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.25,1835,"[0.241, 0.259]",0.124,122,"[0.087, 0.167]",0.187,1957,"[0.168, 0.208]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.126,-0.007
+140,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (zero shot),0.21,1269,"[0.201, 0.219]",0.164,118,"[0.135, 0.193]",0.187,1387,"[0.173, 0.202]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.096,-0.001
+142,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news),0.21,1269,"[0.202, 0.219]",0.165,118,"[0.135, 0.196]",0.188,1387,"[0.172, 0.203]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.095,-0.002
+142,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) geometric mean with news",0.254,1269,"[0.246, 0.262]",0.122,118,"[0.096, 0.148]",0.188,1387,"[0.175, 0.201]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.095,-0.002
+142,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.232,1269,"[0.223, 0.242]",0.145,118,"[0.114, 0.175]",0.188,1387,"[0.173, 0.204]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.094,-0.003
+142,ForecastBench,Z.ai,GLM-4.5-Air-FP8 (zero shot),0.197,680,"[0.184, 0.21]",0.179,31,"[0.117, 0.25]",0.188,711,"[0.157, 0.224]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.116,-0.019
+146,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 2),0.226,1269,"[0.216, 0.236]",0.152,118,"[0.116, 0.188]",0.189,1387,"[0.171, 0.209]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.094,-0.004
+146,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) geometric mean log odds with news",0.254,1269,"[0.247, 0.262]",0.124,118,"[0.099, 0.152]",0.189,1387,"[0.176, 0.203]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.093,-0.004
+146,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.219,1269,"[0.209, 0.229]",0.16,118,"[0.131, 0.191]",0.189,1387,"[0.173, 0.206]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.093,-0.004
+149,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) median with news",0.254,1269,"[0.246, 0.262]",0.125,118,"[0.099, 0.153]",0.19,1387,"[0.176, 0.204]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.093,-0.004
+149,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.22,1269,"[0.212, 0.229]",0.16,118,"[0.133, 0.189]",0.19,1387,"[0.176, 0.206]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.092,-0.005
+149,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.256,1269,"[0.247, 0.266]",0.123,118,"[0.096, 0.149]",0.19,1387,"[0.176, 0.203]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.093,-0.004
+152,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3),0.219,1269,"[0.21, 0.229]",0.162,118,"[0.128, 0.198]",0.191,1387,"[0.173, 0.209]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.092,-0.005
+152,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot),0.22,1269,"[0.212, 0.228]",0.163,118,"[0.132, 0.194]",0.191,1387,"[0.175, 0.207]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.091,-0.006
+152,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (zero shot),0.25,1835,"[0.241, 0.259]",0.131,122,"[0.101, 0.164]",0.191,1957,"[0.175, 0.208]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.123,-0.011
+155,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 2),0.215,1269,"[0.206, 0.224]",0.172,118,"[0.135, 0.21]",0.193,1387,"[0.175, 0.214]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.089,-0.008
+155,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash (zero shot),0.17,680,"[0.159, 0.181]",0.216,31,"[0.122, 0.319]",0.193,711,"[0.146, 0.245]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.112,-0.024
+155,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.241,1269,"[0.228, 0.254]",0.145,118,"[0.103, 0.188]",0.193,1387,"[0.171, 0.215]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.09,-0.007
+155,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.229,3086,"[0.224, 0.235]",0.157,219,"[0.134, 0.181]",0.193,3305,"[0.181, 0.206]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.104,-0.013
+159,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot),0.233,1269,"[0.224, 0.243]",0.155,118,"[0.119, 0.192]",0.194,1387,"[0.175, 0.213]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.089,-0.009
+160,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2411 (zero shot),0.218,2039,"[0.212, 0.225]",0.171,101,"[0.139, 0.205]",0.195,2140,"[0.178, 0.212]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.124,-0.023
+160,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.245,1269,"[0.234, 0.258]",0.144,118,"[0.112, 0.176]",0.195,1387,"[0.178, 0.212]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.088,-0.009
+162,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.229,1269,"[0.219, 0.238]",0.164,118,"[0.134, 0.195]",0.196,1387,"[0.181, 0.213]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.086,-0.011
+163,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news),0.219,1269,"[0.209, 0.229]",0.176,118,"[0.145, 0.208]",0.197,1387,"[0.181, 0.214]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.085,-0.012
+164,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 1),0.228,1269,"[0.218, 0.238]",0.169,118,"[0.137, 0.204]",0.198,1387,"[0.182, 0.216]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.084,-0.013
+165,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.234,1269,"[0.225, 0.244]",0.163,118,"[0.127, 0.202]",0.199,1387,"[0.18, 0.219]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.084,-0.013
+166,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.262,4934,"[0.257, 0.267]",0.138,322,"[0.125, 0.15]",0.2,5256,"[0.193, 0.206]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.097,-0.021
+167,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Nano-2025-08-07 (zero shot),0.199,680,"[0.185, 0.215]",0.202,31,"[0.139, 0.277]",0.201,711,"[0.168, 0.238]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.104,-0.032
+168,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad),0.242,1269,"[0.23, 0.254]",0.165,118,"[0.133, 0.198]",0.203,1387,"[0.186, 0.221]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,55%,0.079,-0.018
+169,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news),0.229,1269,"[0.219, 0.238]",0.178,118,"[0.143, 0.216]",0.204,1387,"[0.185, 0.223]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,55%,0.079,-0.018
+170,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.23,1269,"[0.221, 0.239]",0.184,118,"[0.157, 0.211]",0.207,1387,"[0.193, 0.222]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,55%,0.076,-0.022
+170,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot),0.238,1269,"[0.23, 0.246]",0.176,118,"[0.142, 0.211]",0.207,1387,"[0.19, 0.225]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.075,-0.022
+172,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news),0.245,1269,"[0.234, 0.258]",0.174,118,"[0.138, 0.21]",0.21,1387,"[0.191, 0.23]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.072,-0.025
+173,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.252,1269,"[0.241, 0.263]",0.17,118,"[0.141, 0.199]",0.211,1387,"[0.196, 0.226]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.072,-0.025
+174,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 2),0.25,1269,"[0.237, 0.263]",0.179,118,"[0.136, 0.22]",0.214,1387,"[0.192, 0.237]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.068,-0.029
+175,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot),0.239,1269,"[0.229, 0.25]",0.193,118,"[0.153, 0.234]",0.216,1387,"[0.195, 0.237]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.067,-0.03
+176,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.256,1269,"[0.247, 0.266]",0.182,118,"[0.151, 0.213]",0.219,1387,"[0.203, 0.235]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,53%,0.063,-0.034
+177,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot),0.262,4934,"[0.257, 0.267]",0.183,322,"[0.169, 0.198]",0.222,5256,"[0.215, 0.23]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,53%,0.075,-0.044
+178,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.262,1269,"[0.253, 0.27]",0.202,118,"[0.174, 0.232]",0.232,1387,"[0.217, 0.247]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,52%,0.051,-0.047
+178,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.265,1269,"[0.255, 0.276]",0.199,118,"[0.168, 0.231]",0.232,1387,"[0.216, 0.249]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,52%,0.05,-0.047
+180,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.262,1269,"[0.253, 0.27]",0.205,118,"[0.17, 0.239]",0.233,1387,"[0.216, 0.251]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,52%,0.049,-0.048
+181,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad),0.265,1269,"[0.255, 0.276]",0.214,118,"[0.184, 0.246]",0.24,1387,"[0.223, 0.257]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,51%,0.043,-0.054
+182,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad),0.275,1269,"[0.265, 0.285]",0.212,118,"[0.176, 0.25]",0.243,1387,"[0.225, 0.263]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,51%,0.039,-0.058
+183,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.275,1269,"[0.265, 0.285]",0.213,118,"[0.179, 0.247]",0.244,1387,"[0.226, 0.262]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,51%,0.039,-0.058
+184,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.293,1269,"[0.283, 0.305]",0.197,118,"[0.164, 0.229]",0.245,1387,"[0.228, 0.262]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,51%,0.038,-0.06
+185,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.282,1269,"[0.272, 0.292]",0.212,118,"[0.17, 0.252]",0.247,1387,"[0.225, 0.268]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,50%,0.036,-0.062
+186,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news),0.293,1269,"[0.283, 0.305]",0.207,118,"[0.177, 0.238]",0.25,1387,"[0.234, 0.267]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,50%,0.032,-0.065
+186,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Always 0.5,0.25,11593,"[0.25, 0.25]",0.25,740,"[0.25, 0.25]",0.25,12333,"[0.25, 0.25]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,50%,0.057,-0.073
+188,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.426,1269,"[0.412, 0.44]",0.124,118,"[0.089, 0.163]",0.275,1387,"[0.257, 0.296]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,48%,0.007,-0.09
+189,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.282,1269,"[0.272, 0.292]",0.301,118,"[0.258, 0.347]",0.292,1387,"[0.27, 0.315]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,46%,-0.009,-0.106
+190,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Always 0,0.426,11593,"[0.417, 0.434]",0.168,740,"[0.143, 0.193]",0.297,12333,"[0.284, 0.31]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,46%,0.01,-0.12
+191,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Random Uniform,0.331,11593,"[0.326, 0.337]",0.332,740,"[0.311, 0.352]",0.331,12333,"[0.321, 0.342]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,42%,-0.024,-0.155
+192,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot),0.426,1269,"[0.412, 0.44]",0.24,118,"[0.193, 0.29]",0.333,1387,"[0.309, 0.36]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,42%,-0.051,-0.148
+193,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Always 1,0.574,11593,"[0.566, 0.583]",0.832,740,"[0.807, 0.857]",0.703,12333,"[0.69, 0.716]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,16%,-0.396,-0.527