leaderboard: automatic update html & csv files.

leaderboards/csv/human_combo_leaderboard_overall.csv

@@ -1,45 +1,45 @@
 Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=1,754)",Market Score (resolved) (N=193),Market Score (unresolved) (N=103),Market Score (overall) (N=296),"Overall Resolved Score (N=1,947)","Overall Score (N=2,050)",Overall Score 95% CI,Pairwise p-value comparing to No. 1 (bootstrapped),Pct. more accurate than No. 1,Pct. Imputed
-1,ForecastBench,Superforecaster median forecast,0.091,0.062,0.064,0.062,0.076,0.077,[0.068 0.086],,0%,0%
-2,ForecastBench,Public median forecast,0.119,0.092,0.037,0.072,0.105,0.096,[0.087 0.105],<0.001,23%,0%
-3,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with freeze values),0.175,0.107,0.044,0.085,0.141,0.13,[0.119 0.141],<0.001,23%,0%
+1,ForecastBench,Superforecaster median forecast,0.091,0.062,0.063,0.062,0.076,0.077,[0.068 0.086],,0%,0%
+2,ForecastBench,Public median forecast,0.119,0.092,0.036,0.072,0.105,0.096,[0.087 0.105],<0.001,23%,0%
+3,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with freeze values),0.175,0.107,0.043,0.085,0.141,0.13,[0.119 0.141],<0.001,24%,0%
 4,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.154,0.144,0.04,0.108,0.149,0.131,[0.119 0.144],<0.001,24%,0%
 5,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.164,0.126,0.056,0.102,0.145,0.133,[0.121 0.145],<0.001,23%,0%
-6,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.171,0.132,0.053,0.104,0.151,0.138,[0.126 0.149],<0.001,20%,0%
+6,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.171,0.132,0.052,0.104,0.151,0.138,[0.126 0.149],<0.001,20%,0%
 7,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with freeze values),0.152,0.158,0.078,0.13,0.155,0.141,[0.13  0.152],<0.001,21%,0%
-8,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.154,0.164,0.076,0.133,0.159,0.144,[0.133 0.154],<0.001,21%,1%
+8,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.154,0.164,0.076,0.133,0.159,0.143,[0.133 0.154],<0.001,21%,1%
 9,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.16,0.158,0.08,0.131,0.159,0.145,[0.133 0.158],<0.001,20%,0%
-10,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot with freeze values),0.174,0.148,0.066,0.12,0.161,0.147,[0.133 0.16 ],<0.001,22%,0%
+10,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot with freeze values),0.174,0.148,0.066,0.119,0.161,0.147,[0.133 0.16 ],<0.001,22%,0%
 11,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad),0.152,0.172,0.09,0.143,0.162,0.148,[0.138 0.158],<0.001,20%,1%
 12,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad),0.164,0.154,0.093,0.133,0.159,0.148,[0.138 0.158],<0.001,17%,0%
 13,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news),0.154,0.165,0.102,0.143,0.159,0.148,[0.137 0.16 ],<0.001,21%,1%
-14,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad),0.154,0.166,0.101,0.144,0.16,0.149,[0.137 0.16 ],<0.001,20%,0%
-15,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad),0.175,0.144,0.083,0.123,0.159,0.149,[0.139 0.159],<0.001,19%,1%
+14,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad),0.175,0.144,0.083,0.123,0.159,0.149,[0.139 0.159],<0.001,19%,1%
+15,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad),0.154,0.166,0.101,0.144,0.16,0.149,[0.137 0.16 ],<0.001,20%,0%
 16,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with freeze values),0.173,0.162,0.057,0.125,0.167,0.149,[0.136 0.163],<0.001,21%,0%
 17,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news),0.171,0.146,0.093,0.128,0.159,0.149,[0.138 0.16 ],<0.001,18%,0%
-18,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with freeze values),0.2,0.125,0.055,0.101,0.163,0.15,[0.138 0.163],<0.001,23%,0%
+18,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with freeze values),0.2,0.125,0.055,0.101,0.163,0.15,[0.138 0.163],<0.001,24%,0%
 19,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with freeze values),0.171,0.16,0.079,0.132,0.165,0.151,[0.14  0.162],<0.001,16%,1%
 20,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news),0.16,0.174,0.104,0.149,0.167,0.155,[0.143 0.166],<0.001,19%,0%
 21,ForecastBench,Imputed Forecaster,0.25,0.073,0.036,0.06,0.161,0.155,[0.147 0.163],<0.001,22%,100%
-22,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot with freeze values),0.213,0.125,0.054,0.1,0.169,0.156,[0.145 0.168],<0.001,21%,0%
+22,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot with freeze values),0.213,0.125,0.054,0.1,0.169,0.156,[0.144 0.168],<0.001,21%,0%
 23,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 3),0.167,0.181,0.089,0.149,0.174,0.158,[0.146 0.17 ],<0.001,17%,2%
-24,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.19,0.158,0.064,0.126,0.174,0.158,[0.145 0.171],<0.001,19%,1%
+24,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.19,0.158,0.064,0.125,0.174,0.158,[0.145 0.171],<0.001,19%,1%
 25,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot with freeze values),0.205,0.125,0.085,0.111,0.165,0.158,[0.145 0.171],<0.001,20%,15%
 26,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.185,0.161,0.086,0.135,0.173,0.16,[0.148 0.171],<0.001,17%,0%
 27,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.241,0.097,0.052,0.081,0.169,0.161,[0.153 0.169],<0.001,18%,76%
 28,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.209,0.132,0.082,0.114,0.17,0.162,[0.15  0.173],<0.001,20%,0%
 29,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.242,0.1,0.052,0.083,0.171,0.163,[0.155 0.17 ],<0.001,18%,76%
 30,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.243,0.099,0.051,0.083,0.171,0.163,[0.155 0.171],<0.001,18%,76%
-31,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3),0.176,0.176,0.107,0.152,0.176,0.164,[0.153 0.175],<0.001,19%,1%
+31,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3),0.176,0.176,0.106,0.152,0.176,0.164,[0.153 0.175],<0.001,19%,1%
 32,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with freeze values),0.185,0.166,0.101,0.144,0.176,0.164,[0.154 0.175],<0.001,16%,0%
-33,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad),0.19,0.169,0.087,0.14,0.18,0.165,[0.156 0.174],<0.001,15%,1%
-34,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad),0.171,0.187,0.113,0.161,0.179,0.166,[0.156 0.175],<0.001,15%,0%
-35,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot),0.205,0.136,0.116,0.129,0.171,0.167,[0.154 0.18 ],<0.001,18%,15%
-36,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad),0.228,0.117,0.085,0.106,0.172,0.167,[0.157 0.177],<0.001,19%,24%
+33,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad),0.19,0.169,0.086,0.14,0.18,0.165,[0.156 0.174],<0.001,15%,1%
+34,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad),0.171,0.187,0.112,0.161,0.179,0.166,[0.156 0.175],<0.001,15%,0%
+35,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad),0.228,0.117,0.085,0.106,0.172,0.167,[0.157 0.177],<0.001,19%,24%
+36,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot),0.205,0.136,0.116,0.129,0.171,0.167,[0.154 0.18 ],<0.001,19%,15%
 37,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with freeze values),0.179,0.182,0.106,0.155,0.18,0.167,[0.154 0.181],<0.001,18%,0%
 38,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.205,0.168,0.068,0.133,0.186,0.169,[0.155 0.182],<0.001,19%,0%
 39,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.208,0.156,0.08,0.13,0.182,0.169,[0.159 0.18 ],<0.001,17%,0%
 40,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot),0.173,0.201,0.099,0.165,0.187,0.169,[0.156 0.183],<0.001,18%,0%
-41,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with freeze values),0.217,0.15,0.072,0.123,0.183,0.17,[0.155 0.184],<0.001,22%,0%
+41,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with freeze values),0.217,0.15,0.072,0.123,0.183,0.17,[0.155 0.184],<0.001,23%,0%
 42,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot),0.2,0.16,0.102,0.14,0.18,0.17,[0.157 0.182],<0.001,19%,1%
 43,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news),0.209,0.149,0.097,0.131,0.179,0.17,[0.159 0.181],<0.001,17%,0%
 44,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad),0.179,0.185,0.117,0.161,0.182,0.17,[0.159 0.181],<0.001,16%,0%
@@ -47,33 +47,33 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=1,754)",Market Score (resolved) (N=
 46,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.198,0.172,0.098,0.146,0.185,0.172,[0.161 0.183],<0.001,16%,0%
 47,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot),0.174,0.197,0.124,0.171,0.185,0.173,[0.158 0.187],<0.001,17%,1%
 48,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot with freeze values),0.203,0.184,0.072,0.145,0.194,0.174,[0.16  0.188],<0.001,19%,0%
-49,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.228,0.147,0.071,0.12,0.187,0.174,[0.162 0.186],<0.001,20%,18%
+49,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.228,0.147,0.071,0.12,0.187,0.174,[0.162 0.186],<0.001,21%,18%
 50,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 3),0.206,0.169,0.101,0.145,0.188,0.176,[0.165 0.186],<0.001,16%,7%
 51,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad),0.185,0.197,0.123,0.171,0.191,0.178,[0.168 0.188],<0.001,15%,0%
 52,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad),0.185,0.206,0.107,0.172,0.195,0.178,[0.167 0.189],<0.001,17%,0%
 53,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.217,0.165,0.096,0.141,0.191,0.179,[0.167 0.19 ],<0.001,15%,1%
 54,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.232,0.139,0.101,0.126,0.185,0.179,[0.168 0.19 ],<0.001,15%,11%
 55,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 1),0.203,0.184,0.103,0.156,0.194,0.179,[0.168 0.191],<0.001,17%,15%
-56,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.198,0.195,0.099,0.162,0.197,0.18,[0.17 0.19],<0.001,16%,0%
-57,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.198,0.189,0.114,0.163,0.193,0.18,[0.167 0.193],<0.001,16%,0%
+56,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.198,0.195,0.098,0.162,0.197,0.18,[0.169 0.19 ],<0.001,16%,0%
+57,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.198,0.189,0.113,0.163,0.193,0.18,[0.167 0.193],<0.001,16%,0%
 58,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 1),0.203,0.19,0.102,0.16,0.196,0.181,[0.168 0.194],<0.001,18%,17%
 59,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 1),0.2,0.194,0.104,0.162,0.197,0.181,[0.167 0.195],<0.001,19%,0%
-60,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news),0.198,0.191,0.115,0.164,0.194,0.181,[0.171 0.191],<0.001,16%,0%
-61,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot with freeze values),0.21,0.175,0.112,0.153,0.192,0.181,[0.166 0.197],<0.001,20%,1%
-62,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.213,0.174,0.107,0.151,0.194,0.182,[0.169 0.195],<0.001,16%,0%
-63,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.205,0.188,0.115,0.162,0.196,0.184,[0.172 0.195],<0.001,16%,0%
+60,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news),0.198,0.191,0.114,0.164,0.194,0.181,[0.171 0.191],<0.001,16%,0%
+61,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot with freeze values),0.21,0.175,0.112,0.153,0.192,0.181,[0.166 0.197],<0.001,21%,1%
+62,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.213,0.174,0.107,0.15,0.194,0.182,[0.169 0.195],<0.001,16%,0%
+63,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.205,0.188,0.114,0.162,0.196,0.184,[0.172 0.195],<0.001,16%,0%
 64,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot),0.21,0.196,0.087,0.158,0.203,0.184,[0.17  0.197],<0.001,18%,3%
 65,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.203,0.198,0.107,0.166,0.2,0.185,[0.173 0.196],<0.001,16%,0%
 66,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 1),0.197,0.211,0.105,0.174,0.204,0.185,[0.173 0.197],<0.001,16%,8%
 67,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 2),0.2,0.202,0.112,0.171,0.201,0.185,[0.173 0.198],<0.001,17%,1%
-68,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 2),0.222,0.161,0.13,0.15,0.191,0.186,[0.174 0.197],<0.001,18%,11%
-69,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 3),0.195,0.206,0.121,0.177,0.201,0.186,[0.174 0.198],<0.001,16%,5%
-70,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 3),0.213,0.191,0.106,0.161,0.202,0.187,[0.178 0.197],<0.001,16%,4%
+68,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 2),0.222,0.161,0.13,0.15,0.191,0.186,[0.174 0.198],<0.001,18%,11%
+69,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 3),0.195,0.206,0.121,0.176,0.201,0.186,[0.174 0.198],<0.001,16%,5%
+70,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 3),0.213,0.191,0.105,0.161,0.202,0.187,[0.178 0.197],<0.001,16%,4%
 71,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news),0.203,0.201,0.117,0.172,0.202,0.187,[0.176 0.198],<0.001,16%,0%
 72,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news),0.213,0.187,0.118,0.163,0.2,0.188,[0.177 0.199],<0.001,16%,0%
 73,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot with freeze values),0.218,0.196,0.092,0.16,0.207,0.189,[0.174 0.204],<0.001,16%,1%
 74,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.207,0.197,0.125,0.172,0.202,0.189,[0.174 0.205],<0.001,19%,0%
-75,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.224,0.159,0.149,0.155,0.191,0.19,[0.175 0.204],<0.001,18%,0%
+75,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.224,0.159,0.148,0.155,0.191,0.189,[0.175 0.204],<0.001,18%,0%
 76,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news),0.234,0.179,0.093,0.149,0.206,0.191,[0.18  0.203],<0.001,18%,14%
 77,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.208,0.206,0.117,0.175,0.207,0.192,[0.183 0.201],<0.001,16%,0%
 78,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.234,0.182,0.091,0.151,0.208,0.192,[0.18  0.204],<0.001,18%,10%
@@ -83,37 +83,37 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=1,754)",Market Score (resolved) (N=
 82,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot),0.213,0.212,0.113,0.178,0.213,0.195,[0.184 0.206],<0.001,16%,0%
 83,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.228,0.197,0.1,0.163,0.213,0.196,[0.186 0.206],<0.001,14%,13%
 84,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.229,0.195,0.104,0.163,0.212,0.196,[0.187 0.205],<0.001,15%,0%
-85,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot),0.203,0.216,0.143,0.191,0.209,0.197,[0.184 0.209],<0.001,16%,0%
+85,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot),0.203,0.216,0.143,0.19,0.209,0.197,[0.184 0.209],<0.001,16%,0%
 86,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.236,0.179,0.118,0.158,0.208,0.197,[0.186 0.208],<0.001,19%,12%
 87,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 2),0.207,0.218,0.129,0.187,0.213,0.197,[0.184 0.21 ],<0.001,16%,1%
 88,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 3),0.225,0.197,0.123,0.171,0.211,0.198,[0.187 0.209],<0.001,15%,9%
-89,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.234,0.183,0.124,0.163,0.209,0.198,[0.185 0.211],<0.001,17%,19%
+89,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.234,0.183,0.123,0.163,0.209,0.198,[0.185 0.211],<0.001,17%,19%
 90,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.229,0.21,0.1,0.172,0.219,0.2,[0.189 0.211],<0.001,16%,0%
 91,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.207,0.222,0.141,0.194,0.214,0.2,[0.187 0.214],<0.001,16%,0%
-92,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.224,0.194,0.165,0.184,0.209,0.204,[0.188 0.219],<0.001,18%,0%
+92,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.224,0.194,0.164,0.184,0.209,0.204,[0.188 0.219],<0.001,18%,0%
 93,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.26,0.181,0.101,0.153,0.22,0.206,[0.19  0.222],<0.001,23%,0%
 94,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot),0.217,0.212,0.168,0.197,0.214,0.207,[0.192 0.221],<0.001,18%,1%
 95,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.236,0.203,0.131,0.178,0.22,0.207,[0.193 0.221],<0.001,19%,11%
 96,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 2),0.242,0.21,0.118,0.178,0.226,0.21,[0.195 0.225],<0.001,18%,0%
-97,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.265,0.189,0.1,0.158,0.227,0.212,[0.198 0.226],<0.001,20%,21%
+97,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.265,0.189,0.1,0.158,0.227,0.212,[0.198 0.225],<0.001,20%,21%
 98,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.242,0.209,0.131,0.182,0.226,0.212,[0.2   0.224],<0.001,15%,0%
 99,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 2),0.246,0.21,0.12,0.178,0.228,0.212,[0.198 0.227],<0.001,19%,8%
 100,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.27,0.168,0.131,0.155,0.219,0.213,[0.201 0.224],<0.001,18%,17%
 101,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.246,0.216,0.112,0.18,0.231,0.213,[0.203 0.223],<0.001,16%,1%
 102,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news),0.242,0.218,0.128,0.187,0.23,0.214,[0.203 0.225],<0.001,15%,0%
 103,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 2),0.243,0.224,0.117,0.187,0.233,0.215,[0.203 0.226],<0.001,16%,4%
-104,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.244,0.214,0.135,0.187,0.229,0.215,[0.198 0.232],<0.001,18%,0%
+104,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.244,0.214,0.135,0.187,0.229,0.215,[0.199 0.232],<0.001,18%,0%
 105,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 2),0.257,0.21,0.115,0.177,0.234,0.217,[0.203 0.231],<0.001,18%,5%
-106,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.257,0.218,0.105,0.178,0.237,0.218,[0.205 0.23 ],<0.001,18%,10%
+106,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.257,0.218,0.104,0.178,0.237,0.218,[0.205 0.23 ],<0.001,18%,10%
 107,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.274,0.199,0.104,0.166,0.237,0.22,[0.207 0.234],<0.001,19%,24%
 108,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 1),0.237,0.234,0.145,0.203,0.236,0.22,[0.206 0.234],<0.001,15%,20%
 109,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 2),0.231,0.244,0.162,0.215,0.237,0.223,[0.209 0.237],<0.001,15%,9%
 110,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.295,0.175,0.124,0.157,0.235,0.226,[0.213 0.239],<0.001,19%,17%
-111,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.291,0.17,0.146,0.162,0.231,0.226,[0.214 0.238],<0.001,18%,14%
+111,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.291,0.17,0.145,0.161,0.231,0.226,[0.214 0.238],<0.001,18%,14%
 112,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 1),0.248,0.232,0.161,0.207,0.24,0.228,[0.213 0.242],<0.001,15%,25%
 113,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot),0.244,0.24,0.159,0.212,0.242,0.228,[0.215 0.24 ],<0.001,15%,0%
 114,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.291,0.186,0.125,0.164,0.238,0.228,[0.216 0.24 ],<0.001,17%,15%
-115,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 3),0.267,0.217,0.138,0.189,0.242,0.228,[0.217 0.24 ],<0.001,15%,5%
+115,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 3),0.267,0.217,0.137,0.189,0.242,0.228,[0.217 0.24 ],<0.001,15%,5%
 116,ForecastBench,Always 0.5,0.25,0.25,0.134,0.21,0.25,0.23,[0.226 0.234],<0.001,14%,0%
 117,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.262,0.234,0.135,0.2,0.248,0.231,[0.22  0.241],<0.001,16%,1%
 118,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.289,0.197,0.13,0.174,0.243,0.231,[0.218 0.245],<0.001,20%,20%
@@ -121,17 +121,17 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=1,754)",Market Score (resolved) (N=
 120,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.26,0.234,0.16,0.208,0.247,0.234,[0.217 0.251],<0.001,19%,0%
 121,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot with freeze values),0.28,0.226,0.124,0.191,0.253,0.235,[0.223 0.248],<0.001,15%,1%
 122,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.262,0.249,0.14,0.211,0.255,0.236,[0.226 0.246],<0.001,16%,1%
-123,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.27,0.248,0.142,0.211,0.259,0.24,[0.229 0.252],<0.001,14%,1%
+123,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.27,0.248,0.141,0.211,0.259,0.24,[0.229 0.252],<0.001,14%,1%
 124,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.272,0.246,0.15,0.212,0.259,0.242,[0.231 0.253],<0.001,15%,0%
 125,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad),0.27,0.262,0.137,0.218,0.266,0.244,[0.235 0.254],<0.001,15%,1%
 126,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 2),0.263,0.271,0.141,0.226,0.267,0.244,[0.233 0.256],<0.001,15%,5%
-127,ForecastBench,Always 0,0.269,0.218,0.231,0.222,0.243,0.246,[0.222 0.27 ],<0.001,46%,0%
+127,ForecastBench,Always 0,0.269,0.218,0.23,0.222,0.243,0.246,[0.221 0.27 ],<0.001,46%,0%
 128,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot),0.28,0.253,0.138,0.213,0.266,0.246,[0.236 0.256],<0.001,15%,1%
 129,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 3),0.287,0.258,0.157,0.223,0.272,0.255,[0.245 0.264],<0.001,14%,18%
 130,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.305,0.252,0.123,0.207,0.278,0.256,[0.246 0.266],<0.001,14%,0%
-131,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.288,0.269,0.168,0.234,0.278,0.261,[0.25  0.271],<0.001,14%,0%
+131,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.288,0.269,0.167,0.234,0.278,0.261,[0.25  0.271],<0.001,14%,0%
 132,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news),0.305,0.262,0.136,0.218,0.283,0.261,[0.252 0.271],<0.001,15%,1%
-133,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad),0.288,0.291,0.163,0.246,0.289,0.267,[0.256 0.278],<0.001,15%,0%
+133,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad),0.288,0.291,0.162,0.246,0.289,0.267,[0.256 0.278],<0.001,15%,0%
 134,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.304,0.288,0.191,0.255,0.296,0.279,[0.262 0.296],<0.001,17%,0%
 135,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 1),0.29,0.321,0.169,0.268,0.306,0.279,[0.266 0.293],<0.001,15%,6%
 136,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.304,0.337,0.187,0.285,0.32,0.294,[0.281 0.308],<0.001,16%,1%

leaderboards/csv/human_leaderboard_overall.csv

@@ -3,23 +3,23 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,Dataset Score (N=422),Market Score (resolved) (N=49),
 2,ForecastBench,Public median forecast,0.153,0.127,0.023,0.09,0.14,0.121,[0.101 0.142],<0.001,22%,0%
 3,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.138,0.153,0.025,0.107,0.145,0.123,[0.099 0.146],<0.001,31%,0%
 4,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.142,0.155,0.037,0.113,0.148,0.127,[0.104 0.15 ],<0.001,29%,0%
-5,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with freeze values),0.162,0.136,0.022,0.095,0.149,0.129,[0.106 0.151],<0.001,31%,0%
-6,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot with freeze values),0.145,0.168,0.027,0.118,0.157,0.132,[0.103 0.16 ],<0.001,30%,0%
-7,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot with freeze values),0.167,0.136,0.026,0.097,0.152,0.132,[0.109 0.155],<0.001,30%,0%
+5,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with freeze values),0.162,0.136,0.022,0.095,0.149,0.129,[0.106 0.152],<0.001,32%,0%
+6,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot with freeze values),0.145,0.168,0.027,0.118,0.157,0.132,[0.104 0.16 ],<0.001,30%,0%
+7,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot with freeze values),0.167,0.136,0.026,0.097,0.152,0.132,[0.109 0.155],<0.001,31%,0%
 8,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.162,0.136,0.049,0.105,0.149,0.133,[0.113 0.154],<0.001,25%,0%
 9,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad),0.138,0.179,0.051,0.133,0.158,0.136,[0.113 0.158],<0.001,28%,0%
 10,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with freeze values),0.161,0.153,0.041,0.113,0.157,0.137,[0.115 0.158],<0.001,27%,0%
 11,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news),0.142,0.173,0.072,0.137,0.157,0.139,[0.117 0.161],<0.001,26%,0%
 12,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with freeze values),0.163,0.162,0.033,0.116,0.163,0.14,[0.114 0.165],<0.001,23%,0%
 13,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 3),0.158,0.161,0.055,0.123,0.159,0.141,[0.12  0.161],<0.001,25%,4%
-14,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad),0.161,0.16,0.061,0.125,0.161,0.143,[0.125 0.161],<0.001,24%,0%
+14,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad),0.161,0.16,0.061,0.125,0.161,0.143,[0.125 0.16 ],<0.001,24%,0%
 15,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 1),0.15,0.18,0.056,0.136,0.165,0.143,[0.12  0.166],<0.001,25%,0%
 16,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news),0.162,0.164,0.057,0.126,0.163,0.144,[0.122 0.165],<0.001,22%,0%
 17,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.16,0.157,0.078,0.129,0.159,0.145,[0.126 0.163],<0.001,23%,0%
 18,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot with freeze values),0.173,0.164,0.033,0.117,0.168,0.145,[0.121 0.169],<0.001,23%,0%
-19,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.163,0.166,0.065,0.13,0.164,0.146,[0.127 0.165],<0.001,23%,1%
+19,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.163,0.166,0.064,0.13,0.164,0.146,[0.127 0.165],<0.001,23%,1%
 20,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad),0.162,0.169,0.063,0.131,0.166,0.147,[0.129 0.164],<0.001,23%,1%
-21,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with freeze values),0.161,0.167,0.073,0.133,0.164,0.147,[0.129 0.166],<0.001,22%,0%
+21,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with freeze values),0.161,0.167,0.072,0.133,0.164,0.147,[0.129 0.166],<0.001,22%,0%
 22,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot),0.162,0.174,0.07,0.137,0.168,0.15,[0.129 0.17 ],<0.001,23%,0%
 23,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.176,0.155,0.067,0.124,0.166,0.15,[0.127 0.173],<0.001,26%,0%
 24,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.174,0.171,0.047,0.127,0.172,0.15,[0.13  0.171],<0.001,21%,1%
@@ -31,77 +31,77 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,Dataset Score (N=422),Market Score (resolved) (N=49),
 30,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot with freeze values),0.197,0.158,0.021,0.109,0.178,0.153,[0.128 0.179],<0.001,26%,0%
 31,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.191,0.154,0.048,0.116,0.172,0.154,[0.136 0.172],<0.001,25%,0%
 32,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.181,0.169,0.053,0.127,0.175,0.154,[0.137 0.172],<0.001,21%,0%
-33,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad),0.176,0.169,0.067,0.133,0.173,0.155,[0.138 0.172],<0.001,23%,0%
+33,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad),0.176,0.169,0.067,0.133,0.173,0.154,[0.137 0.171],<0.001,23%,0%
 34,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad),0.16,0.196,0.065,0.149,0.178,0.155,[0.136 0.174],<0.001,22%,1%
 35,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot with freeze values),0.185,0.173,0.038,0.125,0.179,0.155,[0.128 0.182],<0.001,25%,0%
-36,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad),0.174,0.172,0.074,0.137,0.173,0.155,[0.14  0.171],<0.001,18%,1%
+36,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad),0.174,0.172,0.073,0.137,0.173,0.155,[0.14  0.171],<0.001,18%,1%
 37,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot with freeze values),0.197,0.157,0.041,0.116,0.177,0.156,[0.134 0.179],<0.001,20%,0%
 38,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.217,0.118,0.056,0.096,0.167,0.157,[0.138 0.175],<0.001,24%,23%
-39,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with freeze values),0.191,0.173,0.041,0.126,0.182,0.158,[0.13  0.186],<0.001,22%,0%
+39,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with freeze values),0.191,0.173,0.041,0.126,0.182,0.158,[0.13  0.186],<0.001,23%,0%
 40,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.185,0.165,0.071,0.131,0.175,0.158,[0.132 0.185],<0.001,24%,0%
 41,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.194,0.174,0.036,0.125,0.184,0.159,[0.133 0.186],<0.001,25%,0%
 42,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news),0.178,0.18,0.079,0.144,0.179,0.161,[0.14  0.182],<0.001,24%,0%
-43,ForecastBench,Imputed Forecaster,0.25,0.103,0.019,0.074,0.177,0.162,[0.143 0.181],<0.001,25%,100%
+43,ForecastBench,Imputed Forecaster,0.25,0.103,0.019,0.074,0.177,0.162,[0.143 0.181],<0.001,26%,100%
 44,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with freeze values),0.183,0.182,0.068,0.142,0.183,0.162,[0.144 0.181],<0.001,18%,0%
-45,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad),0.217,0.121,0.088,0.109,0.169,0.163,[0.143 0.183],<0.001,22%,24%
+45,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad),0.217,0.121,0.089,0.109,0.169,0.163,[0.143 0.183],<0.001,22%,24%
 46,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.179,0.188,0.075,0.148,0.184,0.164,[0.144 0.183],<0.001,22%,0%
 47,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.221,0.155,0.022,0.108,0.188,0.165,[0.141 0.188],<0.001,26%,1%
 48,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad),0.161,0.198,0.114,0.168,0.18,0.165,[0.146 0.183],<0.001,22%,0%
-49,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.197,0.162,0.08,0.133,0.18,0.165,[0.145 0.186],<0.001,19%,0%
+49,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.197,0.162,0.079,0.133,0.18,0.165,[0.145 0.186],<0.001,19%,0%
 50,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot),0.163,0.22,0.073,0.168,0.192,0.165,[0.14  0.191],<0.001,18%,0%
 51,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 3),0.198,0.177,0.057,0.135,0.187,0.166,[0.146 0.187],<0.001,21%,9%
 52,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot),0.167,0.197,0.108,0.165,0.182,0.166,[0.148 0.185],<0.001,22%,0%
 53,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3),0.183,0.179,0.099,0.151,0.181,0.167,[0.147 0.187],<0.001,22%,0%
 54,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.201,0.175,0.06,0.134,0.188,0.167,[0.149 0.186],<0.001,23%,0%
 55,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.201,0.17,0.073,0.136,0.186,0.168,[0.152 0.185],<0.001,22%,0%
-56,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot),0.197,0.174,0.08,0.14,0.186,0.169,[0.147 0.19 ],<0.001,21%,0%
+56,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot),0.197,0.174,0.079,0.14,0.186,0.169,[0.147 0.19 ],<0.001,21%,0%
 57,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news),0.179,0.2,0.089,0.161,0.19,0.17,[0.15 0.19],<0.001,21%,0%
-58,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.181,0.192,0.099,0.159,0.187,0.17,[0.152 0.188],<0.001,20%,0%
+58,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.181,0.192,0.098,0.159,0.187,0.17,[0.152 0.188],<0.001,20%,0%
 59,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad),0.183,0.201,0.082,0.159,0.192,0.171,[0.152 0.19 ],<0.001,19%,0%
-60,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.183,0.199,0.091,0.161,0.191,0.172,[0.151 0.193],<0.001,24%,0%
+60,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.183,0.199,0.091,0.161,0.191,0.172,[0.15  0.193],<0.001,24%,0%
 61,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 3),0.177,0.209,0.092,0.167,0.193,0.172,[0.15  0.194],<0.001,22%,8%
-62,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 2),0.194,0.193,0.075,0.151,0.194,0.172,[0.15  0.195],<0.001,22%,0%
-63,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.206,0.167,0.089,0.139,0.186,0.173,[0.147 0.198],<0.001,24%,0%
+62,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.206,0.167,0.089,0.139,0.186,0.172,[0.147 0.198],<0.001,24%,0%
+63,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 2),0.194,0.193,0.075,0.151,0.194,0.172,[0.15  0.195],<0.001,22%,0%
 64,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 3),0.199,0.18,0.089,0.148,0.19,0.173,[0.151 0.195],<0.001,20%,13%
 65,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.205,0.162,0.112,0.144,0.183,0.175,[0.154 0.195],<0.001,27%,15%
 66,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news),0.183,0.208,0.094,0.168,0.195,0.175,[0.154 0.196],<0.001,22%,0%
-67,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with freeze values),0.214,0.169,0.078,0.137,0.192,0.176,[0.153 0.198],<0.001,18%,0%
+67,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with freeze values),0.214,0.169,0.078,0.137,0.192,0.175,[0.153 0.198],<0.001,18%,0%
 68,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot),0.173,0.205,0.132,0.179,0.189,0.176,[0.15  0.202],<0.001,20%,0%
 69,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.225,0.165,0.062,0.128,0.195,0.177,[0.161 0.192],<0.001,23%,0%
 70,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 2),0.174,0.21,0.125,0.18,0.192,0.177,[0.152 0.202],<0.001,22%,0%
-71,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 1),0.203,0.2,0.069,0.153,0.201,0.178,[0.153 0.203],<0.001,22%,0%
-72,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot),0.185,0.215,0.095,0.172,0.2,0.178,[0.15  0.207],<0.001,22%,0%
-73,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.214,0.165,0.105,0.143,0.189,0.179,[0.161 0.196],<0.001,16%,20%
-74,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.225,0.187,0.032,0.132,0.206,0.179,[0.149 0.209],<0.001,28%,0%
-75,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.201,0.18,0.113,0.156,0.191,0.179,[0.158 0.199],<0.001,22%,0%
+71,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 1),0.203,0.2,0.068,0.153,0.201,0.178,[0.153 0.203],<0.001,22%,0%
+72,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot),0.185,0.215,0.095,0.172,0.2,0.179,[0.15  0.207],<0.001,22%,0%
+73,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.201,0.18,0.113,0.156,0.191,0.179,[0.158 0.199],<0.001,22%,0%
+74,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.214,0.165,0.105,0.143,0.189,0.179,[0.161 0.196],<0.001,16%,20%
+75,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.225,0.187,0.032,0.132,0.206,0.179,[0.149 0.209],<0.001,28%,0%
 76,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot),0.197,0.199,0.095,0.162,0.198,0.18,[0.16  0.199],<0.001,15%,1%
-77,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.214,0.176,0.091,0.146,0.195,0.18,[0.158 0.202],<0.001,21%,4%
+77,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.214,0.176,0.091,0.146,0.195,0.18,[0.158 0.202],<0.001,22%,4%
 78,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 1),0.202,0.204,0.075,0.158,0.203,0.18,[0.153 0.207],<0.001,25%,0%
 79,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.22,0.164,0.101,0.141,0.192,0.181,[0.157 0.204],<0.001,21%,0%
-80,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.206,0.191,0.094,0.156,0.198,0.181,[0.154 0.207],<0.001,23%,0%
+80,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.206,0.191,0.093,0.156,0.198,0.181,[0.154 0.207],<0.001,23%,0%
 81,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.236,0.159,0.067,0.126,0.198,0.181,[0.162 0.2  ],<0.001,17%,5%
-82,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.212,0.19,0.09,0.155,0.201,0.183,[0.158 0.208],<0.001,21%,0%
-83,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.237,0.167,0.067,0.132,0.202,0.184,[0.166 0.202],<0.001,15%,44%
+82,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.212,0.19,0.089,0.154,0.201,0.183,[0.158 0.208],<0.001,21%,0%
+83,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.237,0.167,0.066,0.132,0.202,0.184,[0.166 0.202],<0.001,15%,44%
 84,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.237,0.168,0.066,0.132,0.202,0.184,[0.166 0.203],<0.001,16%,44%
-85,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news),0.214,0.181,0.106,0.155,0.198,0.184,[0.162 0.207],<0.001,21%,9%
+85,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news),0.214,0.181,0.106,0.155,0.198,0.184,[0.161 0.207],<0.001,22%,9%
 86,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.237,0.168,0.065,0.132,0.203,0.184,[0.166 0.203],<0.001,16%,44%
 87,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 1),0.201,0.221,0.071,0.168,0.211,0.185,[0.16  0.209],<0.001,22%,0%
 88,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 1),0.195,0.218,0.099,0.176,0.207,0.185,[0.16 0.21],<0.001,20%,0%
 89,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.194,0.218,0.103,0.177,0.206,0.186,[0.163 0.209],<0.001,21%,0%
-90,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news),0.201,0.211,0.103,0.172,0.206,0.187,[0.165 0.208],<0.001,21%,0%
+90,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news),0.201,0.211,0.102,0.172,0.206,0.187,[0.165 0.208],<0.001,21%,0%
 91,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.191,0.22,0.118,0.184,0.206,0.187,[0.171 0.204],<0.001,24%,0%
-92,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 2),0.229,0.171,0.101,0.146,0.2,0.188,[0.163 0.213],<0.001,23%,1%
+92,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 2),0.229,0.171,0.101,0.146,0.2,0.188,[0.163 0.212],<0.001,23%,1%
 93,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad),0.214,0.195,0.103,0.162,0.204,0.188,[0.167 0.209],<0.001,17%,0%
 94,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.185,0.224,0.132,0.191,0.205,0.188,[0.161 0.215],<0.001,19%,0%
 95,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news),0.22,0.182,0.119,0.16,0.201,0.19,[0.168 0.212],<0.001,20%,0%
-96,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 1),0.212,0.208,0.098,0.169,0.21,0.19,[0.165 0.216],<0.001,22%,0%
+96,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 1),0.212,0.208,0.097,0.169,0.21,0.19,[0.165 0.216],<0.001,22%,0%
 97,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot),0.191,0.227,0.124,0.19,0.209,0.19,[0.163 0.218],<0.001,18%,0%
 98,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 3),0.212,0.213,0.094,0.17,0.213,0.191,[0.171 0.212],<0.001,21%,7%
 99,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.225,0.19,0.111,0.162,0.208,0.194,[0.165 0.222],<0.001,21%,0%
-100,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.251,0.162,0.092,0.137,0.207,0.194,[0.17  0.219],<0.001,28%,22%
-101,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot),0.221,0.214,0.091,0.17,0.218,0.196,[0.176 0.216],<0.001,19%,0%
-102,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 2),0.217,0.212,0.108,0.175,0.215,0.196,[0.171 0.222],<0.001,25%,2%
-103,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.225,0.224,0.072,0.17,0.224,0.197,[0.18  0.215],<0.001,22%,0%
+100,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.251,0.162,0.092,0.137,0.207,0.194,[0.17  0.219],<0.001,29%,22%
+101,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot),0.221,0.214,0.09,0.17,0.218,0.196,[0.176 0.216],<0.001,19%,0%
+102,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 2),0.217,0.212,0.109,0.175,0.215,0.196,[0.171 0.222],<0.001,25%,2%
+103,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.225,0.224,0.071,0.17,0.224,0.197,[0.18  0.215],<0.001,22%,0%
 104,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.235,0.194,0.1,0.161,0.215,0.198,[0.179 0.217],<0.001,23%,2%
 105,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 3),0.231,0.196,0.11,0.165,0.214,0.198,[0.177 0.22 ],<0.001,21%,9%
 106,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.227,0.195,0.125,0.17,0.211,0.199,[0.176 0.221],<0.001,23%,6%
@@ -110,32 +110,32 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,Dataset Score (N=422),Market Score (resolved) (N=49),
 109,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.205,0.229,0.151,0.201,0.217,0.203,[0.174 0.232],<0.001,24%,11%
 110,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 2),0.22,0.221,0.126,0.187,0.22,0.203,[0.175 0.232],<0.001,21%,0%
 111,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 2),0.225,0.232,0.097,0.184,0.228,0.204,[0.183 0.226],<0.001,22%,4%
-112,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.233,0.234,0.073,0.177,0.234,0.205,[0.178 0.233],<0.001,25%,1%
-113,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 3),0.236,0.212,0.109,0.176,0.224,0.206,[0.182 0.23 ],<0.001,19%,11%
+112,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.233,0.234,0.074,0.177,0.234,0.205,[0.178 0.233],<0.001,25%,1%
+113,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 3),0.236,0.212,0.109,0.175,0.224,0.206,[0.182 0.23 ],<0.001,19%,11%
 114,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.226,0.234,0.099,0.186,0.23,0.206,[0.19  0.222],<0.001,22%,0%
 115,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 2),0.228,0.216,0.141,0.189,0.222,0.208,[0.183 0.234],<0.001,20%,0%
 116,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.295,0.129,0.117,0.124,0.212,0.21,[0.19  0.229],<0.001,23%,13%
-117,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.238,0.231,0.095,0.183,0.234,0.21,[0.191 0.229],<0.001,22%,0%
+117,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.238,0.231,0.096,0.183,0.234,0.21,[0.192 0.229],<0.001,22%,0%
 118,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 2),0.233,0.221,0.128,0.188,0.227,0.21,[0.191 0.229],<0.001,20%,0%
 119,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.25,0.184,0.153,0.173,0.217,0.211,[0.189 0.233],<0.001,23%,14%
 120,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad),0.238,0.228,0.117,0.188,0.233,0.213,[0.195 0.231],<0.001,22%,0%
 121,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 1),0.231,0.245,0.105,0.195,0.238,0.213,[0.185 0.241],<0.001,22%,1%
 122,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot with freeze values),0.301,0.161,0.071,0.129,0.231,0.215,[0.197 0.233],<0.001,19%,1%
-123,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.226,0.253,0.142,0.213,0.24,0.22,[0.201 0.239],<0.001,22%,1%
+123,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.226,0.253,0.142,0.214,0.24,0.22,[0.201 0.239],<0.001,22%,1%
 124,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.241,0.235,0.139,0.201,0.238,0.221,[0.195 0.247],<0.001,23%,11%
 125,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.26,0.23,0.097,0.183,0.245,0.222,[0.197 0.246],<0.001,23%,4%
 126,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.258,0.241,0.106,0.193,0.249,0.225,[0.206 0.245],<0.001,22%,0%
 127,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.277,0.215,0.106,0.176,0.246,0.227,[0.209 0.244],<0.001,21%,0%
-128,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news),0.277,0.212,0.115,0.177,0.244,0.227,[0.21  0.244],<0.001,21%,0%
+128,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news),0.277,0.212,0.114,0.177,0.244,0.227,[0.21  0.244],<0.001,21%,0%
 129,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.295,0.192,0.105,0.161,0.244,0.228,[0.204 0.252],<0.001,22%,14%
-130,ForecastBench,Always 0.5,0.25,0.25,0.133,0.208,0.25,0.229,[0.22  0.238],<0.001,16%,0%
+130,ForecastBench,Always 0.5,0.25,0.25,0.132,0.208,0.25,0.229,[0.22  0.238],<0.001,16%,0%
 131,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad),0.258,0.249,0.127,0.206,0.254,0.232,[0.212 0.252],<0.001,20%,0%
 132,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot),0.301,0.204,0.104,0.169,0.253,0.235,[0.216 0.253],<0.001,18%,1%
-133,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 3),0.266,0.244,0.149,0.21,0.255,0.238,[0.219 0.257],<0.001,18%,26%
-134,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.233,0.322,0.128,0.253,0.277,0.243,[0.215 0.271],<0.001,23%,1%
+133,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 3),0.266,0.244,0.15,0.21,0.255,0.238,[0.219 0.257],<0.001,18%,26%
+134,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.233,0.322,0.129,0.253,0.277,0.243,[0.216 0.271],<0.001,23%,1%
 135,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 1),0.286,0.295,0.116,0.231,0.29,0.259,[0.232 0.285],<0.001,22%,0%
-136,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot with freeze values),0.422,0.159,0.075,0.129,0.29,0.276,[0.247 0.304],<0.001,28%,0%
-137,ForecastBench,Always 0,0.329,0.286,0.206,0.257,0.308,0.293,[0.242 0.345],<0.001,41%,0%
+136,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot with freeze values),0.422,0.159,0.075,0.129,0.29,0.276,[0.247 0.304],<0.001,29%,0%
+137,ForecastBench,Always 0,0.329,0.286,0.205,0.257,0.308,0.293,[0.242 0.345],<0.001,41%,0%
 138,ForecastBench,Random Uniform,0.357,0.302,0.194,0.264,0.329,0.31,[0.274 0.347],<0.001,22%,0%
 139,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot),0.422,0.256,0.171,0.226,0.339,0.324,[0.293 0.355],<0.001,21%,0%
-140,ForecastBench,Always 1,0.671,0.714,0.559,0.659,0.692,0.665,[0.61 0.72],<0.001,27%,0%
+140,ForecastBench,Always 1,0.671,0.714,0.56,0.66,0.692,0.665,[0.61 0.72],<0.001,27%,0%

leaderboards/csv/leaderboard_overall.csv

@@ -1,49 +1,49 @@
 Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=5,492)",Market Score (resolved) (N=516),Market Score (unresolved) (N=381),Market Score (overall) (N=897),"Overall Resolved Score (N=6,008)","Overall Score (N=6,389)",Overall Score 95% CI,Pairwise p-value comparing to No. 1 (bootstrapped),Pct. more accurate than No. 1,Pct. Imputed
-1,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.169,0.112,0.033,0.078,0.14,0.124,[0.118 0.13 ],,0%,0%
-2,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.172,0.106,0.045,0.08,0.139,0.126,[0.12  0.132],0.098,42%,0%
+1,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.169,0.112,0.033,0.079,0.14,0.124,[0.118 0.13 ],,0%,0%
+2,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.172,0.106,0.044,0.08,0.139,0.126,[0.12  0.132],0.102,43%,0%
 3,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with freeze values),0.186,0.096,0.034,0.07,0.141,0.128,[0.122 0.133],<0.01,43%,0%
-4,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with freeze values),0.162,0.134,0.068,0.106,0.148,0.134,[0.128 0.14 ],<0.001,35%,0%
+4,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with freeze values),0.162,0.134,0.068,0.106,0.148,0.134,[0.128 0.139],<0.001,36%,0%
 5,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.19,0.114,0.044,0.084,0.152,0.137,[0.131 0.143],<0.001,39%,0%
 6,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.166,0.138,0.075,0.111,0.152,0.139,[0.133 0.144],<0.001,34%,1%
 7,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with freeze values),0.186,0.127,0.046,0.093,0.156,0.139,[0.133 0.146],<0.001,41%,0%
 8,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with freeze values),0.176,0.14,0.066,0.109,0.158,0.142,[0.136 0.148],<0.001,31%,1%
 9,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.184,0.133,0.059,0.102,0.158,0.143,[0.137 0.149],<0.001,32%,0%
 10,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot with freeze values),0.192,0.124,0.053,0.094,0.158,0.143,[0.136 0.15 ],<0.001,42%,0%
-11,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad),0.172,0.143,0.078,0.115,0.157,0.143,[0.138 0.149],<0.001,31%,0%
+11,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad),0.172,0.143,0.077,0.115,0.157,0.143,[0.138 0.149],<0.001,31%,0%
 12,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with freeze values),0.204,0.111,0.047,0.084,0.157,0.144,[0.137 0.15 ],<0.001,42%,0%
 13,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad),0.169,0.151,0.078,0.12,0.16,0.145,[0.139 0.15 ],<0.001,10%,0%
-14,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad),0.162,0.162,0.084,0.129,0.162,0.145,[0.14  0.151],<0.001,32%,0%
+14,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad),0.162,0.162,0.083,0.128,0.162,0.145,[0.139 0.151],<0.001,32%,0%
 15,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.194,0.134,0.055,0.1,0.164,0.147,[0.141 0.154],<0.001,36%,0%
-16,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news),0.166,0.156,0.092,0.129,0.161,0.147,[0.142 0.153],<0.001,32%,1%
+16,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news),0.166,0.156,0.092,0.129,0.161,0.147,[0.141 0.153],<0.001,32%,1%
 17,ForecastBench,Imputed Forecaster,0.25,0.065,0.025,0.048,0.158,0.149,[0.145 0.153],<0.001,46%,100%
 18,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad),0.186,0.146,0.07,0.114,0.166,0.15,[0.144 0.156],<0.001,32%,0%
 19,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot with freeze values),0.217,0.103,0.057,0.084,0.16,0.15,[0.144 0.157],<0.001,39%,17%
-20,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.211,0.112,0.062,0.091,0.162,0.151,[0.145 0.157],<0.001,35%,0%
+20,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.211,0.112,0.061,0.091,0.162,0.151,[0.145 0.157],<0.001,35%,0%
 21,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news),0.19,0.141,0.076,0.114,0.166,0.152,[0.146 0.158],<0.001,31%,0%
 22,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news),0.184,0.155,0.082,0.124,0.17,0.154,[0.148 0.16 ],<0.001,30%,0%
 23,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot with freeze values),0.222,0.118,0.046,0.087,0.17,0.155,[0.148 0.161],<0.001,38%,0%
 24,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad),0.176,0.168,0.089,0.134,0.172,0.155,[0.15 0.16],<0.001,29%,0%
 25,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.242,0.09,0.039,0.068,0.166,0.155,[0.151 0.159],<0.001,38%,78%
-26,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.201,0.143,0.07,0.112,0.172,0.156,[0.15  0.162],<0.001,28%,0%
+26,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.201,0.143,0.069,0.112,0.172,0.156,[0.15  0.162],<0.001,28%,0%
 27,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with freeze values),0.199,0.145,0.073,0.115,0.172,0.157,[0.151 0.163],<0.001,26%,0%
-28,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot),0.217,0.107,0.084,0.097,0.162,0.157,[0.151 0.163],<0.001,37%,17%
-29,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.243,0.094,0.04,0.071,0.169,0.157,[0.153 0.161],<0.001,37%,78%
+28,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot),0.217,0.107,0.083,0.097,0.162,0.157,[0.151 0.163],<0.001,37%,17%
+29,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.243,0.094,0.04,0.071,0.169,0.157,[0.153 0.161],<0.001,38%,78%
 30,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.244,0.094,0.04,0.071,0.169,0.157,[0.153 0.161],<0.001,37%,78%
-31,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad),0.194,0.156,0.074,0.121,0.175,0.158,[0.153 0.163],<0.001,28%,0%
+31,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad),0.194,0.156,0.074,0.121,0.175,0.158,[0.153 0.162],<0.001,29%,0%
 32,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.215,0.135,0.054,0.101,0.175,0.158,[0.151 0.165],<0.001,33%,0%
 33,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3),0.186,0.164,0.088,0.132,0.175,0.159,[0.153 0.165],<0.001,32%,0%
-34,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 3),0.19,0.163,0.084,0.129,0.176,0.159,[0.153 0.165],<0.001,29%,2%
-35,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot),0.204,0.141,0.085,0.117,0.172,0.16,[0.154 0.167],<0.001,32%,0%
+34,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 3),0.19,0.163,0.083,0.129,0.176,0.159,[0.153 0.165],<0.001,29%,2%
+35,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot),0.204,0.141,0.084,0.117,0.172,0.16,[0.154 0.167],<0.001,32%,0%
 36,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with freeze values),0.194,0.16,0.084,0.128,0.177,0.161,[0.154 0.168],<0.001,32%,0%
-37,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot),0.186,0.168,0.095,0.137,0.177,0.161,[0.154 0.168],<0.001,35%,0%
-38,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 3),0.208,0.143,0.08,0.116,0.175,0.162,[0.157 0.167],<0.001,28%,9%
-39,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news),0.211,0.134,0.088,0.114,0.172,0.163,[0.157 0.168],<0.001,27%,0%
-40,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot),0.192,0.165,0.093,0.134,0.179,0.163,[0.156 0.171],<0.001,34%,1%
-41,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.205,0.158,0.074,0.122,0.182,0.164,[0.158 0.17 ],<0.001,26%,0%
+37,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot),0.186,0.168,0.094,0.137,0.177,0.161,[0.154 0.168],<0.001,35%,0%
+38,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 3),0.208,0.143,0.08,0.116,0.175,0.162,[0.156 0.167],<0.001,28%,9%
+39,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news),0.211,0.134,0.087,0.114,0.172,0.163,[0.157 0.168],<0.001,28%,0%
+40,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot),0.192,0.165,0.093,0.134,0.179,0.163,[0.156 0.17 ],<0.001,34%,1%
+41,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.205,0.158,0.074,0.122,0.182,0.164,[0.158 0.17 ],<0.001,27%,0%
 42,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.221,0.141,0.064,0.108,0.181,0.164,[0.159 0.17 ],<0.001,25%,0%
 43,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot with freeze values),0.208,0.161,0.069,0.122,0.184,0.165,[0.158 0.172],<0.001,31%,0%
-44,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with freeze values),0.232,0.127,0.06,0.099,0.18,0.165,[0.158 0.173],<0.001,40%,0%
-45,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.21,0.148,0.085,0.121,0.179,0.166,[0.159 0.172],<0.001,30%,0%
+44,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.21,0.148,0.085,0.121,0.179,0.165,[0.159 0.172],<0.001,30%,0%
+45,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with freeze values),0.232,0.127,0.06,0.099,0.18,0.165,[0.158 0.173],<0.001,40%,0%
 46,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 3),0.211,0.158,0.079,0.124,0.185,0.168,[0.162 0.173],<0.001,28%,7%
 47,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad),0.237,0.124,0.067,0.1,0.181,0.168,[0.163 0.174],<0.001,38%,22%
 48,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad),0.194,0.179,0.102,0.146,0.186,0.17,[0.164 0.176],<0.001,28%,0%
@@ -56,33 +56,33 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=5,492)",Market Score (resolved) (N=
 55,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 1),0.218,0.161,0.084,0.129,0.19,0.173,[0.167 0.18 ],<0.001,29%,0%
 56,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.237,0.149,0.057,0.11,0.193,0.173,[0.167 0.18 ],<0.001,37%,17%
 57,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot),0.225,0.162,0.07,0.123,0.193,0.174,[0.167 0.181],<0.001,31%,3%
-58,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad),0.199,0.187,0.099,0.15,0.193,0.174,[0.169 0.18 ],<0.001,24%,0%
+58,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad),0.199,0.187,0.098,0.149,0.193,0.174,[0.169 0.18 ],<0.001,24%,0%
 59,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news),0.205,0.183,0.091,0.144,0.194,0.175,[0.169 0.18 ],<0.001,26%,0%
 60,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.221,0.142,0.112,0.129,0.181,0.175,[0.168 0.183],<0.001,43%,0%
-61,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.236,0.143,0.077,0.115,0.189,0.175,[0.17  0.181],<0.001,28%,10%
+61,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.236,0.143,0.076,0.114,0.189,0.175,[0.17  0.181],<0.001,28%,10%
 62,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.222,0.167,0.085,0.132,0.194,0.177,[0.171 0.183],<0.001,28%,1%
-63,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.224,0.164,0.089,0.133,0.194,0.178,[0.171 0.185],<0.001,29%,0%
-64,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.21,0.185,0.094,0.146,0.198,0.178,[0.173 0.184],<0.001,26%,0%
+63,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.224,0.164,0.089,0.132,0.194,0.178,[0.171 0.185],<0.001,29%,0%
+64,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.21,0.185,0.093,0.146,0.198,0.178,[0.173 0.184],<0.001,26%,0%
 65,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.214,0.189,0.094,0.149,0.201,0.181,[0.173 0.19 ],<0.001,29%,0%
 66,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news),0.242,0.159,0.07,0.121,0.201,0.182,[0.175 0.188],<0.001,34%,17%
-67,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 1),0.216,0.185,0.098,0.148,0.2,0.182,[0.176 0.188],<0.001,28%,10%
-68,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 1),0.212,0.19,0.101,0.152,0.201,0.182,[0.175 0.189],<0.001,30%,17%
+67,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 1),0.216,0.185,0.098,0.148,0.2,0.182,[0.175 0.188],<0.001,28%,10%
+68,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 1),0.212,0.19,0.1,0.152,0.201,0.182,[0.175 0.189],<0.001,30%,17%
 69,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.222,0.18,0.092,0.143,0.201,0.182,[0.176 0.188],<0.001,24%,0%
-70,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 3),0.218,0.19,0.09,0.148,0.204,0.183,[0.177 0.188],<0.001,24%,4%
-71,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.214,0.179,0.115,0.152,0.196,0.183,[0.176 0.19 ],<0.001,27%,0%
+70,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 3),0.218,0.19,0.089,0.147,0.204,0.183,[0.177 0.188],<0.001,25%,4%
+71,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.214,0.179,0.114,0.152,0.196,0.183,[0.176 0.19 ],<0.001,27%,0%
 72,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 1),0.219,0.181,0.102,0.147,0.2,0.183,[0.176 0.19 ],<0.001,30%,4%
 73,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot),0.222,0.188,0.088,0.146,0.205,0.184,[0.178 0.19 ],<0.001,26%,0%
 74,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.242,0.164,0.073,0.126,0.203,0.184,[0.178 0.19 ],<0.001,33%,14%
-75,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.221,0.189,0.094,0.148,0.205,0.185,[0.18  0.189],<0.001,23%,0%
+75,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.221,0.189,0.093,0.148,0.205,0.184,[0.18  0.189],<0.001,23%,0%
 76,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot),0.208,0.195,0.125,0.165,0.202,0.187,[0.179 0.194],<0.001,27%,0%
 77,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot),0.227,0.181,0.101,0.147,0.204,0.187,[0.181 0.193],<0.001,28%,1%
 78,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news),0.224,0.184,0.109,0.152,0.204,0.188,[0.182 0.194],<0.001,26%,0%
-79,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 3),0.216,0.2,0.107,0.16,0.208,0.188,[0.182 0.195],<0.001,26%,6%
+79,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 3),0.216,0.2,0.106,0.16,0.208,0.188,[0.182 0.195],<0.001,26%,6%
 80,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 2),0.246,0.145,0.112,0.131,0.196,0.189,[0.182 0.195],<0.001,29%,12%
 81,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.233,0.189,0.086,0.145,0.211,0.189,[0.183 0.195],<0.001,26%,0%
-82,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news),0.222,0.197,0.103,0.157,0.21,0.189,[0.184 0.195],<0.001,23%,0%
-83,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.221,0.179,0.129,0.158,0.2,0.19,[0.181 0.198],<0.001,41%,0%
-84,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.235,0.173,0.11,0.146,0.204,0.19,[0.183 0.198],<0.001,30%,20%
+82,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news),0.222,0.197,0.102,0.157,0.21,0.189,[0.184 0.195],<0.001,23%,0%
+83,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.221,0.179,0.129,0.158,0.2,0.189,[0.181 0.198],<0.001,41%,0%
+84,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.235,0.173,0.11,0.146,0.204,0.19,[0.183 0.197],<0.001,30%,20%
 85,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 2),0.224,0.191,0.11,0.157,0.208,0.191,[0.184 0.197],<0.001,26%,1%
 86,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 2),0.224,0.2,0.104,0.159,0.212,0.191,[0.185 0.198],<0.001,26%,1%
 87,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.233,0.194,0.095,0.152,0.214,0.193,[0.187 0.198],<0.001,24%,0%
@@ -91,36 +91,36 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=5,492)",Market Score (resolved) (N=
 90,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.249,0.174,0.099,0.142,0.212,0.196,[0.19  0.202],<0.001,29%,11%
 91,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.249,0.176,0.096,0.142,0.213,0.196,[0.189 0.203],<0.001,29%,10%
 92,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.266,0.153,0.095,0.128,0.209,0.197,[0.188 0.206],<0.001,38%,0%
-93,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 3),0.232,0.206,0.105,0.163,0.219,0.197,[0.191 0.203],<0.001,25%,9%
+93,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 3),0.232,0.206,0.104,0.163,0.219,0.197,[0.191 0.203],<0.001,25%,9%
 94,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.27,0.165,0.07,0.125,0.218,0.198,[0.19  0.205],<0.001,37%,23%
 95,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.246,0.196,0.101,0.156,0.221,0.201,[0.192 0.21 ],<0.001,32%,0%
 96,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot),0.232,0.195,0.144,0.173,0.214,0.203,[0.195 0.211],<0.001,31%,1%
 97,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 2),0.242,0.21,0.103,0.165,0.226,0.203,[0.197 0.209],<0.001,24%,4%
 98,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 2),0.261,0.186,0.092,0.146,0.223,0.203,[0.196 0.211],<0.001,28%,4%
-99,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 2),0.251,0.195,0.107,0.158,0.223,0.204,[0.197 0.212],<0.001,28%,7%
-100,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.268,0.179,0.088,0.141,0.224,0.204,[0.197 0.211],<0.001,32%,24%
-101,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.277,0.155,0.1,0.131,0.216,0.204,[0.198 0.21 ],<0.001,31%,19%
-102,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.248,0.207,0.106,0.164,0.228,0.206,[0.201 0.212],<0.001,24%,2%
+99,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 2),0.251,0.195,0.107,0.157,0.223,0.204,[0.197 0.212],<0.001,28%,7%
+100,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.277,0.155,0.1,0.131,0.216,0.204,[0.198 0.21 ],<0.001,31%,19%
+101,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.268,0.179,0.088,0.141,0.224,0.204,[0.197 0.211],<0.001,32%,24%
+102,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.248,0.207,0.106,0.164,0.228,0.206,[0.2   0.212],<0.001,24%,2%
 103,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.254,0.208,0.102,0.163,0.231,0.209,[0.202 0.215],<0.001,22%,0%
 104,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 1),0.25,0.207,0.122,0.171,0.229,0.211,[0.203 0.218],<0.001,26%,26%
 105,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news),0.254,0.214,0.112,0.171,0.234,0.213,[0.207 0.218],<0.001,22%,0%
 106,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 2),0.241,0.235,0.122,0.187,0.238,0.214,[0.206 0.221],<0.001,26%,10%
 107,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.265,0.215,0.106,0.169,0.24,0.217,[0.21  0.224],<0.001,27%,11%
-108,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.288,0.178,0.104,0.146,0.233,0.217,[0.211 0.224],<0.001,29%,15%
+108,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.288,0.178,0.103,0.146,0.233,0.217,[0.211 0.224],<0.001,29%,15%
 109,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot),0.246,0.234,0.128,0.189,0.24,0.217,[0.211 0.224],<0.001,26%,1%
-110,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.288,0.176,0.11,0.148,0.232,0.218,[0.211 0.225],<0.001,28%,15%
-111,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.301,0.165,0.096,0.136,0.233,0.218,[0.211 0.225],<0.001,32%,18%
+110,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.301,0.165,0.096,0.135,0.233,0.218,[0.211 0.225],<0.001,32%,18%
+111,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.288,0.176,0.11,0.148,0.232,0.218,[0.211 0.225],<0.001,28%,15%
 112,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.266,0.205,0.125,0.171,0.236,0.218,[0.209 0.228],<0.001,33%,1%
 113,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 1),0.247,0.234,0.142,0.195,0.24,0.221,[0.213 0.229],<0.001,25%,19%
 114,ForecastBench,Always 0.5,0.25,0.25,0.114,0.192,0.25,0.221,[0.218 0.224],<0.001,25%,0%
 115,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot with freeze values),0.278,0.21,0.104,0.165,0.244,0.221,[0.215 0.228],<0.001,25%,1%
-116,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.274,0.211,0.114,0.17,0.243,0.222,[0.216 0.229],<0.001,23%,0%
-117,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.265,0.228,0.118,0.181,0.247,0.223,[0.217 0.229],<0.001,22%,0%
+116,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.274,0.211,0.114,0.17,0.243,0.222,[0.215 0.229],<0.001,23%,0%
+117,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.265,0.228,0.117,0.181,0.247,0.223,[0.217 0.229],<0.001,22%,0%
 118,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 3),0.27,0.227,0.109,0.177,0.249,0.223,[0.217 0.23 ],<0.001,22%,5%
 119,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.265,0.238,0.111,0.184,0.252,0.225,[0.219 0.23 ],<0.001,22%,0%
-120,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.296,0.185,0.121,0.158,0.241,0.227,[0.22  0.234],<0.001,31%,19%
+120,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.296,0.185,0.121,0.158,0.241,0.227,[0.22  0.234],<0.001,32%,19%
 121,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.277,0.231,0.116,0.182,0.254,0.23,[0.224 0.235],<0.001,20%,1%
-122,ForecastBench,Always 0,0.266,0.202,0.201,0.201,0.234,0.234,[0.221 0.246],<0.001,66%,0%
+122,ForecastBench,Always 0,0.266,0.202,0.201,0.201,0.234,0.233,[0.22  0.246],<0.001,66%,0%
 123,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot),0.278,0.239,0.121,0.189,0.258,0.234,[0.228 0.239],<0.001,24%,1%
 124,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 2),0.267,0.263,0.119,0.201,0.265,0.234,[0.228 0.241],<0.001,22%,6%
 125,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.274,0.246,0.128,0.196,0.26,0.235,[0.229 0.241],<0.001,22%,0%
@@ -130,7 +130,7 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=5,492)",Market Score (resolved) (N=
 129,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news),0.308,0.264,0.125,0.205,0.286,0.257,[0.251 0.262],<0.001,20%,1%
 130,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.3,0.275,0.139,0.217,0.287,0.258,[0.253 0.264],<0.001,20%,0%
 131,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad),0.3,0.282,0.137,0.22,0.291,0.26,[0.254 0.266],<0.001,20%,0%
-132,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.307,0.285,0.152,0.229,0.296,0.268,[0.258 0.277],<0.001,26%,0%
+132,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.307,0.285,0.153,0.229,0.296,0.268,[0.258 0.277],<0.001,26%,0%
 133,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 1),0.3,0.324,0.149,0.25,0.312,0.275,[0.268 0.283],<0.001,22%,7%
 134,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.307,0.323,0.161,0.254,0.315,0.28,[0.273 0.288],<0.001,25%,1%
 135,ForecastBench,Random Uniform,0.341,0.324,0.19,0.267,0.332,0.304,[0.294 0.314],<0.001,28%,0%

leaderboards/html/human_combo_leaderboard_overall.html

@@ -66,7 +66,7 @@
     </head>
     <body>
         <div class="container mt-4">
-    <h1>Human Combo Leaderboard: overall</h1><p class="updated-date">Updated Mar. 01, 2025</p>
+    <h1>Human Combo Leaderboard: overall</h1><p class="updated-date">Updated Mar. 02, 2025</p>
         <div style="display: flex; align-items: center;">
           <a data-bs-toggle="collapse" data-bs-target="#descriptionCollapse" aria-expanded="false"
              aria-controls="descriptionCollapse" style="text-decoration: none; color: inherit;
@@ -163,7 +163,7 @@
       <td>Superforecaster median forecast</td>
       <td>0.091</td>
       <td>0.062</td>
-      <td>0.064</td>
+      <td>0.063</td>
       <td>0.062</td>
       <td>0.076</td>
       <td>0.077</td>
@@ -178,7 +178,7 @@
       <td>Public median forecast</td>
       <td>0.119</td>
       <td>0.092</td>
-      <td>0.037</td>
+      <td>0.036</td>
       <td>0.072</td>
       <td>0.105</td>
       <td>0.096</td>
@@ -193,13 +193,13 @@
       <td>GPT-4o (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.175</td>
       <td>0.107</td>
-      <td>0.044</td>
+      <td>0.043</td>
       <td>0.085</td>
       <td>0.141</td>
       <td>0.130</td>
       <td>[0.119, 0.141]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>23%</td>
+      <td>24%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
     </tr>
     <tr>
@@ -238,7 +238,7 @@
       <td>GPT-4o (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.171</td>
       <td>0.132</td>
-      <td>0.053</td>
+      <td>0.052</td>
       <td>0.104</td>
       <td>0.151</td>
       <td>0.138</td>
@@ -271,7 +271,7 @@
       <td>0.076</td>
       <td>0.133</td>
       <td>0.159</td>
-      <td>0.144</td>
+      <td>0.143</td>
       <td>[0.133, 0.154]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>21%</td>
@@ -299,7 +299,7 @@
       <td>0.174</td>
       <td>0.148</td>
       <td>0.066</td>
-      <td>0.120</td>
+      <td>0.119</td>
       <td>0.161</td>
       <td>0.147</td>
       <td>[0.133, 0.16]</td>
@@ -354,21 +354,6 @@
     </tr>
     <tr>
       <td>14</td>
-      <td>Anthropic</td>
-      <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad)</td>
-      <td>0.154</td>
-      <td>0.166</td>
-      <td>0.101</td>
-      <td>0.144</td>
-      <td>0.160</td>
-      <td>0.149</td>
-      <td>[0.137, 0.16]</td>
-      <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>20%</td>
-      <td>0%</td>
-    </tr>
-    <tr>
-      <td>15</td>
       <td>OpenAI</td>
       <td>GPT-4o (scratchpad)</td>
       <td>0.175</td>
@@ -382,6 +367,21 @@
       <td>19%</td>
       <td>1%</td>
     </tr>
+    <tr>
+      <td>15</td>
+      <td>Anthropic</td>
+      <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad)</td>
+      <td>0.154</td>
+      <td>0.166</td>
+      <td>0.101</td>
+      <td>0.144</td>
+      <td>0.160</td>
+      <td>0.149</td>
+      <td>[0.137, 0.16]</td>
+      <td>&lt;0.001</td>
+      <td>20%</td>
+      <td>0%</td>
+    </tr>
     <tr>
       <td>16</td>
       <td>Anthropic</td>
@@ -424,7 +424,7 @@
       <td>0.150</td>
       <td>[0.138, 0.163]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>23%</td>
+      <td>24%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
     </tr>
     <tr>
@@ -482,7 +482,7 @@
       <td>0.100</td>
       <td>0.169</td>
       <td>0.156</td>
-      <td>[0.145, 0.168]</td>
+      <td>[0.144, 0.168]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>21%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
@@ -509,7 +509,7 @@
       <td>0.190</td>
       <td>0.158</td>
       <td>0.064</td>
-      <td>0.126</td>
+      <td>0.125</td>
       <td>0.174</td>
       <td>0.158</td>
       <td>[0.145, 0.171]</td>
@@ -613,7 +613,7 @@
       <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
       <td>0.176</td>
       <td>0.176</td>
-      <td>0.107</td>
+      <td>0.106</td>
       <td>0.152</td>
       <td>0.176</td>
       <td>0.164</td>
@@ -643,7 +643,7 @@
       <td>GPT-4 (scratchpad)</td>
       <td>0.190</td>
       <td>0.169</td>
-      <td>0.087</td>
+      <td>0.086</td>
       <td>0.140</td>
       <td>0.180</td>
       <td>0.165</td>
@@ -658,7 +658,7 @@
       <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad)</td>
       <td>0.171</td>
       <td>0.187</td>
-      <td>0.113</td>
+      <td>0.112</td>
       <td>0.161</td>
       <td>0.179</td>
       <td>0.166</td>
@@ -669,21 +669,6 @@
     </tr>
     <tr>
       <td>35</td>
-      <td>Google</td>
-      <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot)</td>
-      <td>0.205</td>
-      <td>0.136</td>
-      <td>0.116</td>
-      <td>0.129</td>
-      <td>0.171</td>
-      <td>0.167</td>
-      <td>[0.154, 0.18]</td>
-      <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>18%</td>
-      <td>15%</td>
-    </tr>
-    <tr>
-      <td>36</td>
       <td>Anthropic</td>
       <td>Claude-2.1 (scratchpad)</td>
       <td>0.228</td>
@@ -697,6 +682,21 @@
       <td>19%</td>
       <td>24%</td>
     </tr>
+    <tr>
+      <td>36</td>
+      <td>Google</td>
+      <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot)</td>
+      <td>0.205</td>
+      <td>0.136</td>
+      <td>0.116</td>
+      <td>0.129</td>
+      <td>0.171</td>
+      <td>0.167</td>
+      <td>[0.154, 0.18]</td>
+      <td>&lt;0.001</td>
+      <td>19%</td>
+      <td>15%</td>
+    </tr>
     <tr>
       <td>37</td>
       <td>Google</td>
@@ -769,7 +769,7 @@
       <td>0.170</td>
       <td>[0.155, 0.184]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>22%</td>
+      <td>23%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
     </tr>
     <tr>
@@ -889,7 +889,7 @@
       <td>0.174</td>
       <td>[0.162, 0.186]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>20%</td>
+      <td>21%</td>
       <td>18%</td>
     </tr>
     <tr>
@@ -988,11 +988,11 @@
       <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad)</td>
       <td>0.198</td>
       <td>0.195</td>
-      <td>0.099</td>
+      <td>0.098</td>
       <td>0.162</td>
       <td>0.197</td>
       <td>0.180</td>
-      <td>[0.17, 0.19]</td>
+      <td>[0.169, 0.19]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>16%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
@@ -1003,7 +1003,7 @@
       <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.198</td>
       <td>0.189</td>
-      <td>0.114</td>
+      <td>0.113</td>
       <td>0.163</td>
       <td>0.193</td>
       <td>0.180</td>
@@ -1048,7 +1048,7 @@
       <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news)</td>
       <td>0.198</td>
       <td>0.191</td>
-      <td>0.115</td>
+      <td>0.114</td>
       <td>0.164</td>
       <td>0.194</td>
       <td>0.181</td>
@@ -1069,7 +1069,7 @@
       <td>0.181</td>
       <td>[0.166, 0.197]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>20%</td>
+      <td>21%</td>
       <td>1%</td>
     </tr>
     <tr>
@@ -1079,7 +1079,7 @@
       <td>0.213</td>
       <td>0.174</td>
       <td>0.107</td>
-      <td>0.151</td>
+      <td>0.150</td>
       <td>0.194</td>
       <td>0.182</td>
       <td>[0.169, 0.195]</td>
@@ -1093,7 +1093,7 @@
       <td>Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot)</td>
       <td>0.205</td>
       <td>0.188</td>
-      <td>0.115</td>
+      <td>0.114</td>
       <td>0.162</td>
       <td>0.196</td>
       <td>0.184</td>
@@ -1172,7 +1172,7 @@
       <td>0.150</td>
       <td>0.191</td>
       <td>0.186</td>
-      <td>[0.174, 0.197]</td>
+      <td>[0.174, 0.198]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>18%</td>
       <td>11%</td>
@@ -1184,7 +1184,7 @@
       <td>0.195</td>
       <td>0.206</td>
       <td>0.121</td>
-      <td>0.177</td>
+      <td>0.176</td>
       <td>0.201</td>
       <td>0.186</td>
       <td>[0.174, 0.198]</td>
@@ -1198,7 +1198,7 @@
       <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
       <td>0.213</td>
       <td>0.191</td>
-      <td>0.106</td>
+      <td>0.105</td>
       <td>0.161</td>
       <td>0.202</td>
       <td>0.187</td>
@@ -1273,10 +1273,10 @@
       <td>Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.224</td>
       <td>0.159</td>
-      <td>0.149</td>
+      <td>0.148</td>
       <td>0.155</td>
       <td>0.191</td>
-      <td>0.190</td>
+      <td>0.189</td>
       <td>[0.175, 0.204]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>18%</td>
@@ -1424,7 +1424,7 @@
       <td>0.203</td>
       <td>0.216</td>
       <td>0.143</td>
-      <td>0.191</td>
+      <td>0.190</td>
       <td>0.209</td>
       <td>0.197</td>
       <td>[0.184, 0.209]</td>
@@ -1483,7 +1483,7 @@
       <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
       <td>0.234</td>
       <td>0.183</td>
-      <td>0.124</td>
+      <td>0.123</td>
       <td>0.163</td>
       <td>0.209</td>
       <td>0.198</td>
@@ -1528,7 +1528,7 @@
       <td>Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot)</td>
       <td>0.224</td>
       <td>0.194</td>
-      <td>0.165</td>
+      <td>0.164</td>
       <td>0.184</td>
       <td>0.209</td>
       <td>0.204</td>
@@ -1607,7 +1607,7 @@
       <td>0.158</td>
       <td>0.227</td>
       <td>0.212</td>
-      <td>[0.198, 0.226]</td>
+      <td>[0.198, 0.225]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>20%</td>
       <td>21%</td>
@@ -1712,7 +1712,7 @@
       <td>0.187</td>
       <td>0.229</td>
       <td>0.215</td>
-      <td>[0.198, 0.232]</td>
+      <td>[0.199, 0.232]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>18%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
@@ -1738,7 +1738,7 @@
       <td>Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
       <td>0.257</td>
       <td>0.218</td>
-      <td>0.105</td>
+      <td>0.104</td>
       <td>0.178</td>
       <td>0.237</td>
       <td>0.218</td>
@@ -1813,8 +1813,8 @@
       <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.291</td>
       <td>0.170</td>
-      <td>0.146</td>
-      <td>0.162</td>
+      <td>0.145</td>
+      <td>0.161</td>
       <td>0.231</td>
       <td>0.226</td>
       <td>[0.214, 0.238]</td>
@@ -1873,7 +1873,7 @@
       <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
       <td>0.267</td>
       <td>0.217</td>
-      <td>0.138</td>
+      <td>0.137</td>
       <td>0.189</td>
       <td>0.242</td>
       <td>0.228</td>
@@ -1993,7 +1993,7 @@
       <td>Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.270</td>
       <td>0.248</td>
-      <td>0.142</td>
+      <td>0.141</td>
       <td>0.211</td>
       <td>0.259</td>
       <td>0.240</td>
@@ -2053,11 +2053,11 @@
       <td>Always 0</td>
       <td>0.269</td>
       <td>0.218</td>
-      <td>0.231</td>
+      <td>0.230</td>
       <td>0.222</td>
       <td>0.243</td>
       <td>0.246</td>
-      <td>[0.222, 0.27]</td>
+      <td>[0.221, 0.27]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>46%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
@@ -2113,7 +2113,7 @@
       <td>GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.288</td>
       <td>0.269</td>
-      <td>0.168</td>
+      <td>0.167</td>
       <td>0.234</td>
       <td>0.278</td>
       <td>0.261</td>
@@ -2143,7 +2143,7 @@
       <td>GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad)</td>
       <td>0.288</td>
       <td>0.291</td>
-      <td>0.163</td>
+      <td>0.162</td>
       <td>0.246</td>
       <td>0.289</td>
       <td>0.267</td>

leaderboards/html/human_leaderboard_overall.html

@@ -66,7 +66,7 @@
     </head>
     <body>
         <div class="container mt-4">
-    <h1>Human Leaderboard: overall</h1><p class="updated-date">Updated Mar. 01, 2025</p>
+    <h1>Human Leaderboard: overall</h1><p class="updated-date">Updated Mar. 02, 2025</p>
         <div style="display: flex; align-items: center;">
           <a data-bs-toggle="collapse" data-bs-target="#descriptionCollapse" aria-expanded="false"
              aria-controls="descriptionCollapse" style="text-decoration: none; color: inherit;
@@ -227,9 +227,9 @@
       <td>0.095</td>
       <td>0.149</td>
       <td>0.129</td>
-      <td>[0.106, 0.151]</td>
+      <td>[0.106, 0.152]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>31%</td>
+      <td>32%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
     </tr>
     <tr>
@@ -242,7 +242,7 @@
       <td>0.118</td>
       <td>0.157</td>
       <td>0.132</td>
-      <td>[0.103, 0.16]</td>
+      <td>[0.104, 0.16]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>30%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
@@ -259,7 +259,7 @@
       <td>0.132</td>
       <td>[0.109, 0.155]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>30%</td>
+      <td>31%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
     </tr>
     <tr>
@@ -362,7 +362,7 @@
       <td>0.125</td>
       <td>0.161</td>
       <td>0.143</td>
-      <td>[0.125, 0.161]</td>
+      <td>[0.125, 0.16]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>24%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
@@ -433,7 +433,7 @@
       <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.163</td>
       <td>0.166</td>
-      <td>0.065</td>
+      <td>0.064</td>
       <td>0.130</td>
       <td>0.164</td>
       <td>0.146</td>
@@ -463,7 +463,7 @@
       <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.161</td>
       <td>0.167</td>
-      <td>0.073</td>
+      <td>0.072</td>
       <td>0.133</td>
       <td>0.164</td>
       <td>0.147</td>
@@ -646,8 +646,8 @@
       <td>0.067</td>
       <td>0.133</td>
       <td>0.173</td>
-      <td>0.155</td>
-      <td>[0.138, 0.172]</td>
+      <td>0.154</td>
+      <td>[0.137, 0.171]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>23%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
@@ -688,7 +688,7 @@
       <td>GPT-4 (scratchpad)</td>
       <td>0.174</td>
       <td>0.172</td>
-      <td>0.074</td>
+      <td>0.073</td>
       <td>0.137</td>
       <td>0.173</td>
       <td>0.155</td>
@@ -739,7 +739,7 @@
       <td>0.158</td>
       <td>[0.13, 0.186]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>22%</td>
+      <td>23%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
     </tr>
     <tr>
@@ -799,7 +799,7 @@
       <td>0.162</td>
       <td>[0.143, 0.181]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>25%</td>
+      <td>26%</td>
       <td>100%</td>
     </tr>
     <tr>
@@ -823,7 +823,7 @@
       <td>Claude-2.1 (scratchpad)</td>
       <td>0.217</td>
       <td>0.121</td>
-      <td>0.088</td>
+      <td>0.089</td>
       <td>0.109</td>
       <td>0.169</td>
       <td>0.163</td>
@@ -883,7 +883,7 @@
       <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with SECOND news)</td>
       <td>0.197</td>
       <td>0.162</td>
-      <td>0.080</td>
+      <td>0.079</td>
       <td>0.133</td>
       <td>0.180</td>
       <td>0.165</td>
@@ -988,7 +988,7 @@
       <td>GPT-4o (zero shot)</td>
       <td>0.197</td>
       <td>0.174</td>
-      <td>0.080</td>
+      <td>0.079</td>
       <td>0.140</td>
       <td>0.186</td>
       <td>0.169</td>
@@ -1018,7 +1018,7 @@
       <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad)</td>
       <td>0.181</td>
       <td>0.192</td>
-      <td>0.099</td>
+      <td>0.098</td>
       <td>0.159</td>
       <td>0.187</td>
       <td>0.170</td>
@@ -1052,7 +1052,7 @@
       <td>0.161</td>
       <td>0.191</td>
       <td>0.172</td>
-      <td>[0.151, 0.193]</td>
+      <td>[0.15, 0.193]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>24%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
@@ -1074,6 +1074,21 @@
     </tr>
     <tr>
       <td>62</td>
+      <td>Meta</td>
+      <td>Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
+      <td>0.206</td>
+      <td>0.167</td>
+      <td>0.089</td>
+      <td>0.139</td>
+      <td>0.186</td>
+      <td>0.172</td>
+      <td>[0.147, 0.198]</td>
+      <td>&lt;0.001</td>
+      <td>24%</td>
+      <td>0%</td>
+    </tr>
+    <tr>
+      <td>63</td>
       <td>Anthropic</td>
       <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
       <td>0.194</td>
@@ -1087,21 +1102,6 @@
       <td>22%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
     </tr>
-    <tr>
-      <td>63</td>
-      <td>Meta</td>
-      <td>Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
-      <td>0.206</td>
-      <td>0.167</td>
-      <td>0.089</td>
-      <td>0.139</td>
-      <td>0.186</td>
-      <td>0.173</td>
-      <td>[0.147, 0.198]</td>
-      <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>24%</td>
-      <td>0%</td>
-    </tr>
     <tr>
       <td>64</td>
       <td>OpenAI</td>
@@ -1156,7 +1156,7 @@
       <td>0.078</td>
       <td>0.137</td>
       <td>0.192</td>
-      <td>0.176</td>
+      <td>0.175</td>
       <td>[0.153, 0.198]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>18%</td>
@@ -1213,7 +1213,7 @@
       <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
       <td>0.203</td>
       <td>0.200</td>
-      <td>0.069</td>
+      <td>0.068</td>
       <td>0.153</td>
       <td>0.201</td>
       <td>0.178</td>
@@ -1231,7 +1231,7 @@
       <td>0.095</td>
       <td>0.172</td>
       <td>0.200</td>
-      <td>0.178</td>
+      <td>0.179</td>
       <td>[0.15, 0.207]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>22%</td>
@@ -1240,6 +1240,21 @@
     <tr>
       <td>73</td>
       <td>Mistral AI</td>
+      <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
+      <td>0.201</td>
+      <td>0.180</td>
+      <td>0.113</td>
+      <td>0.156</td>
+      <td>0.191</td>
+      <td>0.179</td>
+      <td>[0.158, 0.199]</td>
+      <td>&lt;0.001</td>
+      <td>22%</td>
+      <td>0%</td>
+    </tr>
+    <tr>
+      <td>74</td>
+      <td>Mistral AI</td>
       <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
       <td>0.214</td>
       <td>0.165</td>
@@ -1253,7 +1268,7 @@
       <td>20%</td>
     </tr>
     <tr>
-      <td>74</td>
+      <td>75</td>
       <td>Mistral AI</td>
       <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.225</td>
@@ -1267,21 +1282,6 @@
       <td>28%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
     </tr>
-    <tr>
-      <td>75</td>
-      <td>Mistral AI</td>
-      <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
-      <td>0.201</td>
-      <td>0.180</td>
-      <td>0.113</td>
-      <td>0.156</td>
-      <td>0.191</td>
-      <td>0.179</td>
-      <td>[0.158, 0.199]</td>
-      <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>22%</td>
-      <td>0%</td>
-    </tr>
     <tr>
       <td>76</td>
       <td>Qwen</td>
@@ -1309,7 +1309,7 @@
       <td>0.180</td>
       <td>[0.158, 0.202]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>21%</td>
+      <td>22%</td>
       <td>4%</td>
     </tr>
     <tr>
@@ -1348,7 +1348,7 @@
       <td>Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot)</td>
       <td>0.206</td>
       <td>0.191</td>
-      <td>0.094</td>
+      <td>0.093</td>
       <td>0.156</td>
       <td>0.198</td>
       <td>0.181</td>
@@ -1378,8 +1378,8 @@
       <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
       <td>0.212</td>
       <td>0.190</td>
-      <td>0.090</td>
-      <td>0.155</td>
+      <td>0.089</td>
+      <td>0.154</td>
       <td>0.201</td>
       <td>0.183</td>
       <td>[0.158, 0.208]</td>
@@ -1393,7 +1393,7 @@
       <td>LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news</td>
       <td>0.237</td>
       <td>0.167</td>
-      <td>0.067</td>
+      <td>0.066</td>
       <td>0.132</td>
       <td>0.202</td>
       <td>0.184</td>
@@ -1427,9 +1427,9 @@
       <td>0.155</td>
       <td>0.198</td>
       <td>0.184</td>
-      <td>[0.162, 0.207]</td>
+      <td>[0.161, 0.207]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>21%</td>
+      <td>22%</td>
       <td>9%</td>
     </tr>
     <tr>
@@ -1498,7 +1498,7 @@
       <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news)</td>
       <td>0.201</td>
       <td>0.211</td>
-      <td>0.103</td>
+      <td>0.102</td>
       <td>0.172</td>
       <td>0.206</td>
       <td>0.187</td>
@@ -1532,7 +1532,7 @@
       <td>0.146</td>
       <td>0.200</td>
       <td>0.188</td>
-      <td>[0.163, 0.213]</td>
+      <td>[0.163, 0.212]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>23%</td>
       <td>1%</td>
@@ -1588,7 +1588,7 @@
       <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
       <td>0.212</td>
       <td>0.208</td>
-      <td>0.098</td>
+      <td>0.097</td>
       <td>0.169</td>
       <td>0.210</td>
       <td>0.190</td>
@@ -1654,7 +1654,7 @@
       <td>0.194</td>
       <td>[0.17, 0.219]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>28%</td>
+      <td>29%</td>
       <td>22%</td>
     </tr>
     <tr>
@@ -1663,7 +1663,7 @@
       <td>Claude-2.1 (zero shot)</td>
       <td>0.221</td>
       <td>0.214</td>
-      <td>0.091</td>
+      <td>0.090</td>
       <td>0.170</td>
       <td>0.218</td>
       <td>0.196</td>
@@ -1678,7 +1678,7 @@
       <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 2)</td>
       <td>0.217</td>
       <td>0.212</td>
-      <td>0.108</td>
+      <td>0.109</td>
       <td>0.175</td>
       <td>0.215</td>
       <td>0.196</td>
@@ -1693,7 +1693,7 @@
       <td>Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad)</td>
       <td>0.225</td>
       <td>0.224</td>
-      <td>0.072</td>
+      <td>0.071</td>
       <td>0.170</td>
       <td>0.224</td>
       <td>0.197</td>
@@ -1828,7 +1828,7 @@
       <td>Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.233</td>
       <td>0.234</td>
-      <td>0.073</td>
+      <td>0.074</td>
       <td>0.177</td>
       <td>0.234</td>
       <td>0.205</td>
@@ -1844,7 +1844,7 @@
       <td>0.236</td>
       <td>0.212</td>
       <td>0.109</td>
-      <td>0.176</td>
+      <td>0.175</td>
       <td>0.224</td>
       <td>0.206</td>
       <td>[0.182, 0.23]</td>
@@ -1903,11 +1903,11 @@
       <td>Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.238</td>
       <td>0.231</td>
-      <td>0.095</td>
+      <td>0.096</td>
       <td>0.183</td>
       <td>0.234</td>
       <td>0.210</td>
-      <td>[0.191, 0.229]</td>
+      <td>[0.192, 0.229]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>22%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
@@ -1994,7 +1994,7 @@
       <td>0.226</td>
       <td>0.253</td>
       <td>0.142</td>
-      <td>0.213</td>
+      <td>0.214</td>
       <td>0.240</td>
       <td>0.220</td>
       <td>[0.201, 0.239]</td>
@@ -2068,7 +2068,7 @@
       <td>Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news)</td>
       <td>0.277</td>
       <td>0.212</td>
-      <td>0.115</td>
+      <td>0.114</td>
       <td>0.177</td>
       <td>0.244</td>
       <td>0.227</td>
@@ -2098,7 +2098,7 @@
       <td>Always 0.5</td>
       <td>0.250</td>
       <td>0.250</td>
-      <td>0.133</td>
+      <td>0.132</td>
       <td>0.208</td>
       <td>0.250</td>
       <td>0.229</td>
@@ -2143,7 +2143,7 @@
       <td>Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
       <td>0.266</td>
       <td>0.244</td>
-      <td>0.149</td>
+      <td>0.150</td>
       <td>0.210</td>
       <td>0.255</td>
       <td>0.238</td>
@@ -2158,11 +2158,11 @@
       <td>Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot)</td>
       <td>0.233</td>
       <td>0.322</td>
-      <td>0.128</td>
+      <td>0.129</td>
       <td>0.253</td>
       <td>0.277</td>
       <td>0.243</td>
-      <td>[0.215, 0.271]</td>
+      <td>[0.216, 0.271]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>23%</td>
       <td>1%</td>
@@ -2194,7 +2194,7 @@
       <td>0.276</td>
       <td>[0.247, 0.304]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>28%</td>
+      <td>29%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
     </tr>
     <tr>
@@ -2203,7 +2203,7 @@
       <td>Always 0</td>
       <td>0.329</td>
       <td>0.286</td>
-      <td>0.206</td>
+      <td>0.205</td>
       <td>0.257</td>
       <td>0.308</td>
       <td>0.293</td>
@@ -2248,8 +2248,8 @@
       <td>Always 1</td>
       <td>0.671</td>
       <td>0.714</td>
-      <td>0.559</td>
-      <td>0.659</td>
+      <td>0.560</td>
+      <td>0.660</td>
       <td>0.692</td>
       <td>0.665</td>
       <td>[0.61, 0.72]</td>

leaderboards/html/leaderboard_overall.html

@@ -66,7 +66,7 @@
     </head>
     <body>
         <div class="container mt-4">
-    <h1>Leaderboard: overall</h1><p class="updated-date">Updated Mar. 01, 2025</p>
+    <h1>Leaderboard: overall</h1><p class="updated-date">Updated Mar. 02, 2025</p>
         <div style="display: flex; align-items: center;">
           <a data-bs-toggle="collapse" data-bs-target="#descriptionCollapse" aria-expanded="false"
              aria-controls="descriptionCollapse" style="text-decoration: none; color: inherit;
@@ -164,7 +164,7 @@
       <td>0.169</td>
       <td>0.112</td>
       <td>0.033</td>
-      <td>0.078</td>
+      <td>0.079</td>
       <td>0.140</td>
       <td>0.124</td>
       <td>[0.118, 0.13]</td>
@@ -178,13 +178,13 @@
       <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.172</td>
       <td>0.106</td>
-      <td>0.045</td>
+      <td>0.044</td>
       <td>0.080</td>
       <td>0.139</td>
       <td>0.126</td>
       <td>[0.12, 0.132]</td>
-      <td>0.098</td>
-      <td>42%</td>
+      <td>0.102</td>
+      <td>43%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
     </tr>
     <tr>
@@ -212,9 +212,9 @@
       <td>0.106</td>
       <td>0.148</td>
       <td>0.134</td>
-      <td>[0.128, 0.14]</td>
+      <td>[0.128, 0.139]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>35%</td>
+      <td>36%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
     </tr>
     <tr>
@@ -313,7 +313,7 @@
       <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad)</td>
       <td>0.172</td>
       <td>0.143</td>
-      <td>0.078</td>
+      <td>0.077</td>
       <td>0.115</td>
       <td>0.157</td>
       <td>0.143</td>
@@ -358,11 +358,11 @@
       <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad)</td>
       <td>0.162</td>
       <td>0.162</td>
-      <td>0.084</td>
-      <td>0.129</td>
+      <td>0.083</td>
+      <td>0.128</td>
       <td>0.162</td>
       <td>0.145</td>
-      <td>[0.14, 0.151]</td>
+      <td>[0.139, 0.151]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>32%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
@@ -392,7 +392,7 @@
       <td>0.129</td>
       <td>0.161</td>
       <td>0.147</td>
-      <td>[0.142, 0.153]</td>
+      <td>[0.141, 0.153]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>32%</td>
       <td>1%</td>
@@ -448,7 +448,7 @@
       <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.211</td>
       <td>0.112</td>
-      <td>0.062</td>
+      <td>0.061</td>
       <td>0.091</td>
       <td>0.162</td>
       <td>0.151</td>
@@ -538,7 +538,7 @@
       <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.201</td>
       <td>0.143</td>
-      <td>0.070</td>
+      <td>0.069</td>
       <td>0.112</td>
       <td>0.172</td>
       <td>0.156</td>
@@ -568,7 +568,7 @@
       <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot)</td>
       <td>0.217</td>
       <td>0.107</td>
-      <td>0.084</td>
+      <td>0.083</td>
       <td>0.097</td>
       <td>0.162</td>
       <td>0.157</td>
@@ -589,7 +589,7 @@
       <td>0.157</td>
       <td>[0.153, 0.161]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>37%</td>
+      <td>38%</td>
       <td>78%</td>
     </tr>
     <tr>
@@ -617,9 +617,9 @@
       <td>0.121</td>
       <td>0.175</td>
       <td>0.158</td>
-      <td>[0.153, 0.163]</td>
+      <td>[0.153, 0.162]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>28%</td>
+      <td>29%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
     </tr>
     <tr>
@@ -658,7 +658,7 @@
       <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
       <td>0.190</td>
       <td>0.163</td>
-      <td>0.084</td>
+      <td>0.083</td>
       <td>0.129</td>
       <td>0.176</td>
       <td>0.159</td>
@@ -673,7 +673,7 @@
       <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot)</td>
       <td>0.204</td>
       <td>0.141</td>
-      <td>0.085</td>
+      <td>0.084</td>
       <td>0.117</td>
       <td>0.172</td>
       <td>0.160</td>
@@ -703,7 +703,7 @@
       <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot)</td>
       <td>0.186</td>
       <td>0.168</td>
-      <td>0.095</td>
+      <td>0.094</td>
       <td>0.137</td>
       <td>0.177</td>
       <td>0.161</td>
@@ -722,7 +722,7 @@
       <td>0.116</td>
       <td>0.175</td>
       <td>0.162</td>
-      <td>[0.157, 0.167]</td>
+      <td>[0.156, 0.167]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>28%</td>
       <td>9%</td>
@@ -733,13 +733,13 @@
       <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news)</td>
       <td>0.211</td>
       <td>0.134</td>
-      <td>0.088</td>
+      <td>0.087</td>
       <td>0.114</td>
       <td>0.172</td>
       <td>0.163</td>
       <td>[0.157, 0.168]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>27%</td>
+      <td>28%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
     </tr>
     <tr>
@@ -752,7 +752,7 @@
       <td>0.134</td>
       <td>0.179</td>
       <td>0.163</td>
-      <td>[0.156, 0.171]</td>
+      <td>[0.156, 0.17]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>34%</td>
       <td>1%</td>
@@ -769,7 +769,7 @@
       <td>0.164</td>
       <td>[0.158, 0.17]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>26%</td>
+      <td>27%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
     </tr>
     <tr>
@@ -804,6 +804,21 @@
     </tr>
     <tr>
       <td>44</td>
+      <td>Mistral AI</td>
+      <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
+      <td>0.210</td>
+      <td>0.148</td>
+      <td>0.085</td>
+      <td>0.121</td>
+      <td>0.179</td>
+      <td>0.165</td>
+      <td>[0.159, 0.172]</td>
+      <td>&lt;0.001</td>
+      <td>30%</td>
+      <td>0%</td>
+    </tr>
+    <tr>
+      <td>45</td>
       <td>Google</td>
       <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.232</td>
@@ -817,21 +832,6 @@
       <td>40%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
     </tr>
-    <tr>
-      <td>45</td>
-      <td>Mistral AI</td>
-      <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
-      <td>0.210</td>
-      <td>0.148</td>
-      <td>0.085</td>
-      <td>0.121</td>
-      <td>0.179</td>
-      <td>0.166</td>
-      <td>[0.159, 0.172]</td>
-      <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>30%</td>
-      <td>0%</td>
-    </tr>
     <tr>
       <td>46</td>
       <td>OpenAI</td>
@@ -1018,8 +1018,8 @@
       <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad)</td>
       <td>0.199</td>
       <td>0.187</td>
-      <td>0.099</td>
-      <td>0.150</td>
+      <td>0.098</td>
+      <td>0.149</td>
       <td>0.193</td>
       <td>0.174</td>
       <td>[0.169, 0.18]</td>
@@ -1063,8 +1063,8 @@
       <td>GPT-4o (scratchpad with SECOND news)</td>
       <td>0.236</td>
       <td>0.143</td>
-      <td>0.077</td>
-      <td>0.115</td>
+      <td>0.076</td>
+      <td>0.114</td>
       <td>0.189</td>
       <td>0.175</td>
       <td>[0.17, 0.181]</td>
@@ -1094,7 +1094,7 @@
       <td>0.224</td>
       <td>0.164</td>
       <td>0.089</td>
-      <td>0.133</td>
+      <td>0.132</td>
       <td>0.194</td>
       <td>0.178</td>
       <td>[0.171, 0.185]</td>
@@ -1108,7 +1108,7 @@
       <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad)</td>
       <td>0.210</td>
       <td>0.185</td>
-      <td>0.094</td>
+      <td>0.093</td>
       <td>0.146</td>
       <td>0.198</td>
       <td>0.178</td>
@@ -1157,7 +1157,7 @@
       <td>0.148</td>
       <td>0.200</td>
       <td>0.182</td>
-      <td>[0.176, 0.188]</td>
+      <td>[0.175, 0.188]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>28%</td>
       <td>10%</td>
@@ -1168,7 +1168,7 @@
       <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
       <td>0.212</td>
       <td>0.190</td>
-      <td>0.101</td>
+      <td>0.100</td>
       <td>0.152</td>
       <td>0.201</td>
       <td>0.182</td>
@@ -1198,13 +1198,13 @@
       <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
       <td>0.218</td>
       <td>0.190</td>
-      <td>0.090</td>
-      <td>0.148</td>
+      <td>0.089</td>
+      <td>0.147</td>
       <td>0.204</td>
       <td>0.183</td>
       <td>[0.177, 0.188]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>24%</td>
+      <td>25%</td>
       <td>4%</td>
     </tr>
     <tr>
@@ -1213,7 +1213,7 @@
       <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot)</td>
       <td>0.214</td>
       <td>0.179</td>
-      <td>0.115</td>
+      <td>0.114</td>
       <td>0.152</td>
       <td>0.196</td>
       <td>0.183</td>
@@ -1273,10 +1273,10 @@
       <td>Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad)</td>
       <td>0.221</td>
       <td>0.189</td>
-      <td>0.094</td>
+      <td>0.093</td>
       <td>0.148</td>
       <td>0.205</td>
-      <td>0.185</td>
+      <td>0.184</td>
       <td>[0.18, 0.189]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>23%</td>
@@ -1333,7 +1333,7 @@
       <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
       <td>0.216</td>
       <td>0.200</td>
-      <td>0.107</td>
+      <td>0.106</td>
       <td>0.160</td>
       <td>0.208</td>
       <td>0.188</td>
@@ -1378,7 +1378,7 @@
       <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news)</td>
       <td>0.222</td>
       <td>0.197</td>
-      <td>0.103</td>
+      <td>0.102</td>
       <td>0.157</td>
       <td>0.210</td>
       <td>0.189</td>
@@ -1396,7 +1396,7 @@
       <td>0.129</td>
       <td>0.158</td>
       <td>0.200</td>
-      <td>0.190</td>
+      <td>0.189</td>
       <td>[0.181, 0.198]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>41%</td>
@@ -1412,7 +1412,7 @@
       <td>0.146</td>
       <td>0.204</td>
       <td>0.190</td>
-      <td>[0.183, 0.198]</td>
+      <td>[0.183, 0.197]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>30%</td>
       <td>20%</td>
@@ -1543,7 +1543,7 @@
       <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
       <td>0.232</td>
       <td>0.206</td>
-      <td>0.105</td>
+      <td>0.104</td>
       <td>0.163</td>
       <td>0.219</td>
       <td>0.197</td>
@@ -1634,7 +1634,7 @@
       <td>0.251</td>
       <td>0.195</td>
       <td>0.107</td>
-      <td>0.158</td>
+      <td>0.157</td>
       <td>0.223</td>
       <td>0.204</td>
       <td>[0.197, 0.212]</td>
@@ -1644,21 +1644,6 @@
     </tr>
     <tr>
       <td>100</td>
-      <td>Anthropic</td>
-      <td>Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
-      <td>0.268</td>
-      <td>0.179</td>
-      <td>0.088</td>
-      <td>0.141</td>
-      <td>0.224</td>
-      <td>0.204</td>
-      <td>[0.197, 0.211]</td>
-      <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>32%</td>
-      <td>24%</td>
-    </tr>
-    <tr>
-      <td>101</td>
       <td>Mistral AI</td>
       <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
       <td>0.277</td>
@@ -1672,6 +1657,21 @@
       <td>31%</td>
       <td>19%</td>
     </tr>
+    <tr>
+      <td>101</td>
+      <td>Anthropic</td>
+      <td>Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
+      <td>0.268</td>
+      <td>0.179</td>
+      <td>0.088</td>
+      <td>0.141</td>
+      <td>0.224</td>
+      <td>0.204</td>
+      <td>[0.197, 0.211]</td>
+      <td>&lt;0.001</td>
+      <td>32%</td>
+      <td>24%</td>
+    </tr>
     <tr>
       <td>102</td>
       <td>Mistral AI</td>
@@ -1682,7 +1682,7 @@
       <td>0.164</td>
       <td>0.228</td>
       <td>0.206</td>
-      <td>[0.201, 0.212]</td>
+      <td>[0.2, 0.212]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>24%</td>
       <td>2%</td>
@@ -1768,7 +1768,7 @@
       <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news)</td>
       <td>0.288</td>
       <td>0.178</td>
-      <td>0.104</td>
+      <td>0.103</td>
       <td>0.146</td>
       <td>0.233</td>
       <td>0.217</td>
@@ -1795,6 +1795,21 @@
     <tr>
       <td>110</td>
       <td>Mistral AI</td>
+      <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
+      <td>0.301</td>
+      <td>0.165</td>
+      <td>0.096</td>
+      <td>0.135</td>
+      <td>0.233</td>
+      <td>0.218</td>
+      <td>[0.211, 0.225]</td>
+      <td>&lt;0.001</td>
+      <td>32%</td>
+      <td>18%</td>
+    </tr>
+    <tr>
+      <td>111</td>
+      <td>Mistral AI</td>
       <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.288</td>
       <td>0.176</td>
@@ -1807,21 +1822,6 @@
       <td>28%</td>
       <td>15%</td>
     </tr>
-    <tr>
-      <td>111</td>
-      <td>Mistral AI</td>
-      <td>Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
-      <td>0.301</td>
-      <td>0.165</td>
-      <td>0.096</td>
-      <td>0.136</td>
-      <td>0.233</td>
-      <td>0.218</td>
-      <td>[0.211, 0.225]</td>
-      <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>32%</td>
-      <td>18%</td>
-    </tr>
     <tr>
       <td>112</td>
       <td>Mistral AI</td>
@@ -1892,7 +1892,7 @@
       <td>0.170</td>
       <td>0.243</td>
       <td>0.222</td>
-      <td>[0.216, 0.229]</td>
+      <td>[0.215, 0.229]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>23%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
@@ -1903,7 +1903,7 @@
       <td>Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.265</td>
       <td>0.228</td>
-      <td>0.118</td>
+      <td>0.117</td>
       <td>0.181</td>
       <td>0.247</td>
       <td>0.223</td>
@@ -1954,7 +1954,7 @@
       <td>0.227</td>
       <td>[0.22, 0.234]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>31%</td>
+      <td>32%</td>
       <td>19%</td>
     </tr>
     <tr>
@@ -1981,8 +1981,8 @@
       <td>0.201</td>
       <td>0.201</td>
       <td>0.234</td>
-      <td>0.234</td>
-      <td>[0.221, 0.246]</td>
+      <td>0.233</td>
+      <td>[0.22, 0.246]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>66%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
@@ -2128,7 +2128,7 @@
       <td>Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.307</td>
       <td>0.285</td>
-      <td>0.152</td>
+      <td>0.153</td>
       <td>0.229</td>
       <td>0.296</td>
       <td>0.268</td>