leaderboard: automatic update html & csv files.

leaderboards/csv/human_combo_leaderboard_overall.csv

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=1,754)",Market Score (resolved) (N=193),Market Score (unresolved) (N=103),Market Score (overall) (N=296),"Overall Resolved Score (N=1,947)","Overall Score (N=2,050)",Overall Score 95% CI,Pairwise p-value comparing to No. 1 (bootstrapped),Pct. more accurate than No. 1,Pct. Imputed
 1,ForecastBench,Superforecaster median forecast,0.091,0.062,0.063,0.062,0.076,0.077,[0.068 0.086],,0%,0%
 2,ForecastBench,Public median forecast,0.119,0.092,0.036,0.072,0.105,0.096,[0.087 0.105],<0.001,23%,0%
-3,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with freeze values),0.175,0.107,0.043,0.085,0.141,0.13,[0.119 0.141],<0.001,24%,0%
+3,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with freeze values),0.175,0.107,0.044,0.085,0.141,0.13,[0.119 0.141],<0.001,24%,0%
 4,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.154,0.144,0.04,0.108,0.149,0.131,[0.119 0.144],<0.001,24%,0%
 5,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.164,0.126,0.056,0.102,0.145,0.133,[0.121 0.145],<0.001,23%,0%
 6,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.171,0.132,0.052,0.104,0.151,0.138,[0.126 0.149],<0.001,20%,0%
@@ -32,11 +32,11 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=1,754)",Market Score (resolved) (N=
 31,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3),0.176,0.176,0.106,0.152,0.176,0.164,[0.153 0.175],<0.001,19%,1%
 32,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with freeze values),0.185,0.166,0.101,0.144,0.176,0.164,[0.154 0.175],<0.001,16%,0%
 33,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad),0.19,0.169,0.086,0.14,0.18,0.165,[0.156 0.174],<0.001,15%,1%
-34,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad),0.171,0.187,0.112,0.161,0.179,0.166,[0.156 0.175],<0.001,15%,0%
+34,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad),0.171,0.187,0.113,0.161,0.179,0.166,[0.156 0.175],<0.001,15%,0%
 35,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad),0.228,0.117,0.085,0.106,0.172,0.167,[0.157 0.177],<0.001,19%,24%
 36,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot),0.205,0.136,0.116,0.129,0.171,0.167,[0.154 0.18 ],<0.001,19%,15%
 37,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with freeze values),0.179,0.182,0.106,0.155,0.18,0.167,[0.154 0.181],<0.001,18%,0%
-38,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.205,0.168,0.068,0.133,0.186,0.169,[0.155 0.182],<0.001,19%,0%
+38,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.205,0.168,0.068,0.133,0.186,0.169,[0.155 0.183],<0.001,19%,0%
 39,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.208,0.156,0.08,0.13,0.182,0.169,[0.159 0.18 ],<0.001,17%,0%
 40,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot),0.173,0.201,0.099,0.165,0.187,0.169,[0.156 0.183],<0.001,18%,0%
 41,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with freeze values),0.217,0.15,0.072,0.123,0.183,0.17,[0.155 0.184],<0.001,23%,0%
@@ -58,10 +58,10 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=1,754)",Market Score (resolved) (N=
 57,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.198,0.189,0.113,0.163,0.193,0.18,[0.167 0.193],<0.001,16%,0%
 58,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 1),0.203,0.19,0.102,0.16,0.196,0.181,[0.168 0.194],<0.001,18%,17%
 59,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 1),0.2,0.194,0.104,0.162,0.197,0.181,[0.167 0.195],<0.001,19%,0%
-60,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news),0.198,0.191,0.114,0.164,0.194,0.181,[0.171 0.191],<0.001,16%,0%
+60,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news),0.198,0.191,0.115,0.164,0.194,0.181,[0.171 0.191],<0.001,16%,0%
 61,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot with freeze values),0.21,0.175,0.112,0.153,0.192,0.181,[0.166 0.197],<0.001,21%,1%
 62,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.213,0.174,0.107,0.15,0.194,0.182,[0.169 0.195],<0.001,16%,0%
-63,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.205,0.188,0.114,0.162,0.196,0.184,[0.172 0.195],<0.001,16%,0%
+63,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.205,0.188,0.115,0.162,0.196,0.184,[0.172 0.195],<0.001,16%,0%
 64,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot),0.21,0.196,0.087,0.158,0.203,0.184,[0.17  0.197],<0.001,18%,3%
 65,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.203,0.198,0.107,0.166,0.2,0.185,[0.173 0.196],<0.001,16%,0%
 66,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 1),0.197,0.211,0.105,0.174,0.204,0.185,[0.173 0.197],<0.001,16%,8%
@@ -104,7 +104,7 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=1,754)",Market Score (resolved) (N=
 103,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 2),0.243,0.224,0.117,0.187,0.233,0.215,[0.203 0.226],<0.001,16%,4%
 104,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.244,0.214,0.135,0.187,0.229,0.215,[0.199 0.232],<0.001,18%,0%
 105,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 2),0.257,0.21,0.115,0.177,0.234,0.217,[0.203 0.231],<0.001,18%,5%
-106,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.257,0.218,0.104,0.178,0.237,0.218,[0.205 0.23 ],<0.001,18%,10%
+106,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.257,0.218,0.105,0.178,0.237,0.218,[0.205 0.23 ],<0.001,18%,10%
 107,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.274,0.199,0.104,0.166,0.237,0.22,[0.207 0.234],<0.001,19%,24%
 108,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 1),0.237,0.234,0.145,0.203,0.236,0.22,[0.206 0.234],<0.001,15%,20%
 109,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 2),0.231,0.244,0.162,0.215,0.237,0.223,[0.209 0.237],<0.001,15%,9%

leaderboards/csv/human_leaderboard_overall.csv

@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,Dataset Score (N=422),Market Score (resolved) (N=49),
 10,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with freeze values),0.161,0.153,0.041,0.113,0.157,0.137,[0.115 0.158],<0.001,27%,0%
 11,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news),0.142,0.173,0.072,0.137,0.157,0.139,[0.117 0.161],<0.001,26%,0%
 12,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with freeze values),0.163,0.162,0.033,0.116,0.163,0.14,[0.114 0.165],<0.001,23%,0%
-13,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 3),0.158,0.161,0.055,0.123,0.159,0.141,[0.12  0.161],<0.001,25%,4%
+13,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 3),0.158,0.161,0.055,0.124,0.159,0.141,[0.12  0.161],<0.001,25%,4%
 14,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad),0.161,0.16,0.061,0.125,0.161,0.143,[0.125 0.16 ],<0.001,24%,0%
 15,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 1),0.15,0.18,0.056,0.136,0.165,0.143,[0.12  0.166],<0.001,25%,0%
 16,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news),0.162,0.164,0.057,0.126,0.163,0.144,[0.122 0.165],<0.001,22%,0%
@@ -33,7 +33,7 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,Dataset Score (N=422),Market Score (resolved) (N=49),
 32,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.181,0.169,0.053,0.127,0.175,0.154,[0.137 0.172],<0.001,21%,0%
 33,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad),0.176,0.169,0.067,0.133,0.173,0.154,[0.137 0.171],<0.001,23%,0%
 34,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad),0.16,0.196,0.065,0.149,0.178,0.155,[0.136 0.174],<0.001,22%,1%
-35,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot with freeze values),0.185,0.173,0.038,0.125,0.179,0.155,[0.128 0.182],<0.001,25%,0%
+35,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot with freeze values),0.185,0.173,0.039,0.125,0.179,0.155,[0.128 0.182],<0.001,25%,0%
 36,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad),0.174,0.172,0.073,0.137,0.173,0.155,[0.14  0.171],<0.001,18%,1%
 37,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot with freeze values),0.197,0.157,0.041,0.116,0.177,0.156,[0.134 0.179],<0.001,20%,0%
 38,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.217,0.118,0.056,0.096,0.167,0.157,[0.138 0.175],<0.001,24%,23%
@@ -41,7 +41,7 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,Dataset Score (N=422),Market Score (resolved) (N=49),
 40,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.185,0.165,0.071,0.131,0.175,0.158,[0.132 0.185],<0.001,24%,0%
 41,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.194,0.174,0.036,0.125,0.184,0.159,[0.133 0.186],<0.001,25%,0%
 42,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news),0.178,0.18,0.079,0.144,0.179,0.161,[0.14  0.182],<0.001,24%,0%
-43,ForecastBench,Imputed Forecaster,0.25,0.103,0.019,0.074,0.177,0.162,[0.143 0.181],<0.001,26%,100%
+43,ForecastBench,Imputed Forecaster,0.25,0.103,0.02,0.074,0.177,0.162,[0.143 0.181],<0.001,26%,100%
 44,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with freeze values),0.183,0.182,0.068,0.142,0.183,0.162,[0.144 0.181],<0.001,18%,0%
 45,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad),0.217,0.121,0.089,0.109,0.169,0.163,[0.143 0.183],<0.001,22%,24%
 46,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.179,0.188,0.075,0.148,0.184,0.164,[0.144 0.183],<0.001,22%,0%
@@ -65,11 +65,11 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,Dataset Score (N=422),Market Score (resolved) (N=49),
 64,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 3),0.199,0.18,0.089,0.148,0.19,0.173,[0.151 0.195],<0.001,20%,13%
 65,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.205,0.162,0.112,0.144,0.183,0.175,[0.154 0.195],<0.001,27%,15%
 66,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news),0.183,0.208,0.094,0.168,0.195,0.175,[0.154 0.196],<0.001,22%,0%
-67,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with freeze values),0.214,0.169,0.078,0.137,0.192,0.175,[0.153 0.198],<0.001,18%,0%
+67,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with freeze values),0.214,0.169,0.078,0.137,0.192,0.176,[0.153 0.198],<0.001,18%,0%
 68,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot),0.173,0.205,0.132,0.179,0.189,0.176,[0.15  0.202],<0.001,20%,0%
 69,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.225,0.165,0.062,0.128,0.195,0.177,[0.161 0.192],<0.001,23%,0%
 70,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 2),0.174,0.21,0.125,0.18,0.192,0.177,[0.152 0.202],<0.001,22%,0%
-71,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 1),0.203,0.2,0.068,0.153,0.201,0.178,[0.153 0.203],<0.001,22%,0%
+71,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 1),0.203,0.2,0.069,0.153,0.201,0.178,[0.153 0.203],<0.001,22%,0%
 72,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot),0.185,0.215,0.095,0.172,0.2,0.179,[0.15  0.207],<0.001,22%,0%
 73,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.201,0.18,0.113,0.156,0.191,0.179,[0.158 0.199],<0.001,22%,0%
 74,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3),0.214,0.165,0.105,0.143,0.189,0.179,[0.161 0.196],<0.001,16%,20%
@@ -77,11 +77,11 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,Dataset Score (N=422),Market Score (resolved) (N=49),
 76,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot),0.197,0.199,0.095,0.162,0.198,0.18,[0.16  0.199],<0.001,15%,1%
 77,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.214,0.176,0.091,0.146,0.195,0.18,[0.158 0.202],<0.001,22%,4%
 78,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 1),0.202,0.204,0.075,0.158,0.203,0.18,[0.153 0.207],<0.001,25%,0%
-79,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.22,0.164,0.101,0.141,0.192,0.181,[0.157 0.204],<0.001,21%,0%
-80,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.206,0.191,0.093,0.156,0.198,0.181,[0.154 0.207],<0.001,23%,0%
+79,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.206,0.191,0.093,0.156,0.198,0.181,[0.154 0.207],<0.001,23%,0%
+80,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.22,0.164,0.101,0.141,0.192,0.181,[0.157 0.204],<0.001,21%,0%
 81,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.236,0.159,0.067,0.126,0.198,0.181,[0.162 0.2  ],<0.001,17%,5%
-82,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.212,0.19,0.089,0.154,0.201,0.183,[0.158 0.208],<0.001,21%,0%
-83,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.237,0.167,0.066,0.132,0.202,0.184,[0.166 0.202],<0.001,15%,44%
+82,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1),0.212,0.19,0.09,0.154,0.201,0.183,[0.158 0.208],<0.001,21%,0%
+83,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.237,0.167,0.067,0.132,0.202,0.184,[0.166 0.202],<0.001,15%,44%
 84,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.237,0.168,0.066,0.132,0.202,0.184,[0.166 0.203],<0.001,16%,44%
 85,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news),0.214,0.181,0.106,0.155,0.198,0.184,[0.161 0.207],<0.001,22%,9%
 86,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.237,0.168,0.065,0.132,0.203,0.184,[0.166 0.203],<0.001,16%,44%
@@ -99,7 +99,7 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,Dataset Score (N=422),Market Score (resolved) (N=49),
 98,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 3),0.212,0.213,0.094,0.17,0.213,0.191,[0.171 0.212],<0.001,21%,7%
 99,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.225,0.19,0.111,0.162,0.208,0.194,[0.165 0.222],<0.001,21%,0%
 100,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.251,0.162,0.092,0.137,0.207,0.194,[0.17  0.219],<0.001,29%,22%
-101,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot),0.221,0.214,0.09,0.17,0.218,0.196,[0.176 0.216],<0.001,19%,0%
+101,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot),0.221,0.214,0.091,0.17,0.218,0.196,[0.176 0.216],<0.001,19%,0%
 102,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 2),0.217,0.212,0.109,0.175,0.215,0.196,[0.171 0.222],<0.001,25%,2%
 103,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.225,0.224,0.071,0.17,0.224,0.197,[0.18  0.215],<0.001,22%,0%
 104,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.235,0.194,0.1,0.161,0.215,0.198,[0.179 0.217],<0.001,23%,2%

leaderboards/csv/leaderboard_overall.csv

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=5,492)",Market Score (resolved) (N=516),Market Score (unresolved) (N=381),Market Score (overall) (N=897),"Overall Resolved Score (N=6,008)","Overall Score (N=6,389)",Overall Score 95% CI,Pairwise p-value comparing to No. 1 (bootstrapped),Pct. more accurate than No. 1,Pct. Imputed
 1,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.169,0.112,0.033,0.079,0.14,0.124,[0.118 0.13 ],,0%,0%
-2,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.172,0.106,0.044,0.08,0.139,0.126,[0.12  0.132],0.102,43%,0%
+2,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.172,0.106,0.044,0.08,0.139,0.126,[0.12  0.132],0.103,43%,0%
 3,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with freeze values),0.186,0.096,0.034,0.07,0.141,0.128,[0.122 0.133],<0.01,43%,0%
 4,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with freeze values),0.162,0.134,0.068,0.106,0.148,0.134,[0.128 0.139],<0.001,36%,0%
 5,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.19,0.114,0.044,0.084,0.152,0.137,[0.131 0.143],<0.001,39%,0%
@@ -8,8 +8,8 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=5,492)",Market Score (resolved) (N=
 7,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with freeze values),0.186,0.127,0.046,0.093,0.156,0.139,[0.133 0.146],<0.001,41%,0%
 8,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with freeze values),0.176,0.14,0.066,0.109,0.158,0.142,[0.136 0.148],<0.001,31%,1%
 9,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.184,0.133,0.059,0.102,0.158,0.143,[0.137 0.149],<0.001,32%,0%
-10,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot with freeze values),0.192,0.124,0.053,0.094,0.158,0.143,[0.136 0.15 ],<0.001,42%,0%
-11,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad),0.172,0.143,0.077,0.115,0.157,0.143,[0.138 0.149],<0.001,31%,0%
+10,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad),0.172,0.143,0.077,0.115,0.157,0.143,[0.138 0.149],<0.001,31%,0%
+11,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot with freeze values),0.192,0.124,0.053,0.094,0.158,0.143,[0.136 0.15 ],<0.001,42%,0%
 12,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with freeze values),0.204,0.111,0.047,0.084,0.157,0.144,[0.137 0.15 ],<0.001,42%,0%
 13,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad),0.169,0.151,0.078,0.12,0.16,0.145,[0.139 0.15 ],<0.001,10%,0%
 14,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad),0.162,0.162,0.083,0.128,0.162,0.145,[0.139 0.151],<0.001,32%,0%
@@ -31,16 +31,16 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=5,492)",Market Score (resolved) (N=
 30,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news",0.244,0.094,0.04,0.071,0.169,0.157,[0.153 0.161],<0.001,37%,78%
 31,OpenAI,GPT-4 (scratchpad),0.194,0.156,0.074,0.121,0.175,0.158,[0.153 0.162],<0.001,29%,0%
 32,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.215,0.135,0.054,0.101,0.175,0.158,[0.151 0.165],<0.001,33%,0%
-33,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3),0.186,0.164,0.088,0.132,0.175,0.159,[0.153 0.165],<0.001,32%,0%
+33,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3),0.186,0.164,0.088,0.131,0.175,0.159,[0.153 0.165],<0.001,32%,0%
 34,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 3),0.19,0.163,0.083,0.129,0.176,0.159,[0.153 0.165],<0.001,29%,2%
 35,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot),0.204,0.141,0.084,0.117,0.172,0.16,[0.154 0.167],<0.001,32%,0%
 36,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with freeze values),0.194,0.16,0.084,0.128,0.177,0.161,[0.154 0.168],<0.001,32%,0%
-37,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot),0.186,0.168,0.094,0.137,0.177,0.161,[0.154 0.168],<0.001,35%,0%
+37,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot),0.186,0.168,0.094,0.136,0.177,0.161,[0.154 0.168],<0.001,35%,0%
 38,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 3),0.208,0.143,0.08,0.116,0.175,0.162,[0.156 0.167],<0.001,28%,9%
 39,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news),0.211,0.134,0.087,0.114,0.172,0.163,[0.157 0.168],<0.001,28%,0%
 40,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot),0.192,0.165,0.093,0.134,0.179,0.163,[0.156 0.17 ],<0.001,34%,1%
 41,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.205,0.158,0.074,0.122,0.182,0.164,[0.158 0.17 ],<0.001,27%,0%
-42,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.221,0.141,0.064,0.108,0.181,0.164,[0.159 0.17 ],<0.001,25%,0%
+42,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.221,0.141,0.063,0.108,0.181,0.164,[0.159 0.17 ],<0.001,25%,0%
 43,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot with freeze values),0.208,0.161,0.069,0.122,0.184,0.165,[0.158 0.172],<0.001,31%,0%
 44,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.21,0.148,0.085,0.121,0.179,0.165,[0.159 0.172],<0.001,30%,0%
 45,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with freeze values),0.232,0.127,0.06,0.099,0.18,0.165,[0.158 0.173],<0.001,40%,0%
@@ -52,7 +52,7 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=5,492)",Market Score (resolved) (N=
 51,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 1),0.216,0.149,0.1,0.128,0.182,0.172,[0.165 0.179],<0.001,32%,0%
 52,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.215,0.156,0.095,0.13,0.185,0.172,[0.166 0.178],<0.001,28%,0%
 53,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot with freeze values),0.227,0.155,0.069,0.118,0.191,0.172,[0.165 0.18 ],<0.001,32%,1%
-54,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 1),0.211,0.166,0.093,0.135,0.188,0.173,[0.166 0.179],<0.001,30%,18%
+54,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 1),0.211,0.166,0.092,0.135,0.188,0.173,[0.166 0.179],<0.001,30%,18%
 55,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 1),0.218,0.161,0.084,0.129,0.19,0.173,[0.167 0.18 ],<0.001,29%,0%
 56,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.237,0.149,0.057,0.11,0.193,0.173,[0.167 0.18 ],<0.001,37%,17%
 57,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot),0.225,0.162,0.07,0.123,0.193,0.174,[0.167 0.181],<0.001,31%,3%
@@ -65,16 +65,16 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=5,492)",Market Score (resolved) (N=
 64,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.21,0.185,0.093,0.146,0.198,0.178,[0.173 0.184],<0.001,26%,0%
 65,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values),0.214,0.189,0.094,0.149,0.201,0.181,[0.173 0.19 ],<0.001,29%,0%
 66,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news),0.242,0.159,0.07,0.121,0.201,0.182,[0.175 0.188],<0.001,34%,17%
-67,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 1),0.216,0.185,0.098,0.148,0.2,0.182,[0.175 0.188],<0.001,28%,10%
+67,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 1),0.216,0.185,0.097,0.148,0.2,0.182,[0.175 0.188],<0.001,28%,10%
 68,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 1),0.212,0.19,0.1,0.152,0.201,0.182,[0.175 0.189],<0.001,30%,17%
 69,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.222,0.18,0.092,0.143,0.201,0.182,[0.176 0.188],<0.001,24%,0%
-70,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 3),0.218,0.19,0.089,0.147,0.204,0.183,[0.177 0.188],<0.001,25%,4%
-71,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.214,0.179,0.114,0.152,0.196,0.183,[0.176 0.19 ],<0.001,27%,0%
-72,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 1),0.219,0.181,0.102,0.147,0.2,0.183,[0.176 0.19 ],<0.001,30%,4%
+70,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.214,0.179,0.114,0.151,0.196,0.183,[0.176 0.19 ],<0.001,27%,0%
+71,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 3),0.218,0.19,0.089,0.147,0.204,0.183,[0.177 0.188],<0.001,25%,4%
+72,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 1),0.219,0.181,0.101,0.147,0.2,0.183,[0.176 0.19 ],<0.001,30%,4%
 73,OpenAI,GPT-4 (zero shot),0.222,0.188,0.088,0.146,0.205,0.184,[0.178 0.19 ],<0.001,26%,0%
 74,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values),0.242,0.164,0.073,0.126,0.203,0.184,[0.178 0.19 ],<0.001,33%,14%
 75,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.221,0.189,0.093,0.148,0.205,0.184,[0.18  0.189],<0.001,23%,0%
-76,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot),0.208,0.195,0.125,0.165,0.202,0.187,[0.179 0.194],<0.001,27%,0%
+76,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot),0.208,0.195,0.124,0.165,0.202,0.187,[0.179 0.194],<0.001,27%,0%
 77,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot),0.227,0.181,0.101,0.147,0.204,0.187,[0.181 0.193],<0.001,28%,1%
 78,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news),0.224,0.184,0.109,0.152,0.204,0.188,[0.182 0.194],<0.001,26%,0%
 79,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 3),0.216,0.2,0.106,0.16,0.208,0.188,[0.182 0.195],<0.001,26%,6%
@@ -113,15 +113,15 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=5,492)",Market Score (resolved) (N=
 112,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.266,0.205,0.125,0.171,0.236,0.218,[0.209 0.228],<0.001,33%,1%
 113,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 1),0.247,0.234,0.142,0.195,0.24,0.221,[0.213 0.229],<0.001,25%,19%
 114,ForecastBench,Always 0.5,0.25,0.25,0.114,0.192,0.25,0.221,[0.218 0.224],<0.001,25%,0%
-115,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot with freeze values),0.278,0.21,0.104,0.165,0.244,0.221,[0.215 0.228],<0.001,25%,1%
+115,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot with freeze values),0.278,0.21,0.104,0.165,0.244,0.222,[0.215 0.228],<0.001,25%,1%
 116,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.274,0.211,0.114,0.17,0.243,0.222,[0.215 0.229],<0.001,23%,0%
 117,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values),0.265,0.228,0.117,0.181,0.247,0.223,[0.217 0.229],<0.001,22%,0%
 118,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 3),0.27,0.227,0.109,0.177,0.249,0.223,[0.217 0.23 ],<0.001,22%,5%
 119,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.265,0.238,0.111,0.184,0.252,0.225,[0.219 0.23 ],<0.001,22%,0%
-120,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.296,0.185,0.121,0.158,0.241,0.227,[0.22  0.234],<0.001,32%,19%
+120,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.296,0.185,0.121,0.158,0.241,0.227,[0.22  0.234],<0.001,31%,19%
 121,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with freeze values),0.277,0.231,0.116,0.182,0.254,0.23,[0.224 0.235],<0.001,20%,1%
 122,ForecastBench,Always 0,0.266,0.202,0.201,0.201,0.234,0.233,[0.22  0.246],<0.001,66%,0%
-123,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot),0.278,0.239,0.121,0.189,0.258,0.234,[0.228 0.239],<0.001,24%,1%
+123,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot),0.278,0.239,0.121,0.189,0.258,0.233,[0.228 0.239],<0.001,24%,1%
 124,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 2),0.267,0.263,0.119,0.201,0.265,0.234,[0.228 0.241],<0.001,22%,6%
 125,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.274,0.246,0.128,0.196,0.26,0.235,[0.229 0.241],<0.001,22%,0%
 126,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad),0.277,0.263,0.126,0.205,0.27,0.241,[0.236 0.246],<0.001,20%,1%
@@ -132,7 +132,7 @@ Ranking,Organization,Model,"Dataset Score (N=5,492)",Market Score (resolved) (N=
 131,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad),0.3,0.282,0.137,0.22,0.291,0.26,[0.254 0.266],<0.001,20%,0%
 132,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values),0.307,0.285,0.153,0.229,0.296,0.268,[0.258 0.277],<0.001,26%,0%
 133,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 1),0.3,0.324,0.149,0.25,0.312,0.275,[0.268 0.283],<0.001,22%,7%
-134,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.307,0.323,0.161,0.254,0.315,0.28,[0.273 0.288],<0.001,25%,1%
+134,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.307,0.323,0.161,0.254,0.315,0.281,[0.273 0.288],<0.001,25%,1%
 135,ForecastBench,Random Uniform,0.341,0.324,0.19,0.267,0.332,0.304,[0.294 0.314],<0.001,28%,0%
 136,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot with freeze values),0.446,0.247,0.146,0.204,0.346,0.325,[0.315 0.335],<0.001,27%,0%
 137,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot),0.446,0.338,0.216,0.286,0.392,0.366,[0.357 0.375],<0.001,21%,0%

leaderboards/html/human_combo_leaderboard_overall.html

@@ -66,7 +66,7 @@
     </head>
     <body>
         <div class="container mt-4">
-    <h1>Human Combo Leaderboard: overall</h1><p class="updated-date">Updated Mar. 02, 2025</p>
+    <h1>Human Combo Leaderboard: overall</h1><p class="updated-date">Updated Mar. 03, 2025</p>
         <div style="display: flex; align-items: center;">
           <a data-bs-toggle="collapse" data-bs-target="#descriptionCollapse" aria-expanded="false"
              aria-controls="descriptionCollapse" style="text-decoration: none; color: inherit;
@@ -193,7 +193,7 @@
       <td>GPT-4o (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.175</td>
       <td>0.107</td>
-      <td>0.043</td>
+      <td>0.044</td>
       <td>0.085</td>
       <td>0.141</td>
       <td>0.130</td>
@@ -658,7 +658,7 @@
       <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad)</td>
       <td>0.171</td>
       <td>0.187</td>
-      <td>0.112</td>
+      <td>0.113</td>
       <td>0.161</td>
       <td>0.179</td>
       <td>0.166</td>
@@ -722,7 +722,7 @@
       <td>0.133</td>
       <td>0.186</td>
       <td>0.169</td>
-      <td>[0.155, 0.182]</td>
+      <td>[0.155, 0.183]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>19%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
@@ -1048,7 +1048,7 @@
       <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news)</td>
       <td>0.198</td>
       <td>0.191</td>
-      <td>0.114</td>
+      <td>0.115</td>
       <td>0.164</td>
       <td>0.194</td>
       <td>0.181</td>
@@ -1093,7 +1093,7 @@
       <td>Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot)</td>
       <td>0.205</td>
       <td>0.188</td>
-      <td>0.114</td>
+      <td>0.115</td>
       <td>0.162</td>
       <td>0.196</td>
       <td>0.184</td>
@@ -1738,7 +1738,7 @@
       <td>Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
       <td>0.257</td>
       <td>0.218</td>
-      <td>0.104</td>
+      <td>0.105</td>
       <td>0.178</td>
       <td>0.237</td>
       <td>0.218</td>

leaderboards/html/human_leaderboard_overall.html

@@ -66,7 +66,7 @@
     </head>
     <body>
         <div class="container mt-4">
-    <h1>Human Leaderboard: overall</h1><p class="updated-date">Updated Mar. 02, 2025</p>
+    <h1>Human Leaderboard: overall</h1><p class="updated-date">Updated Mar. 03, 2025</p>
         <div style="display: flex; align-items: center;">
           <a data-bs-toggle="collapse" data-bs-target="#descriptionCollapse" aria-expanded="false"
              aria-controls="descriptionCollapse" style="text-decoration: none; color: inherit;
@@ -344,7 +344,7 @@
       <td>0.158</td>
       <td>0.161</td>
       <td>0.055</td>
-      <td>0.123</td>
+      <td>0.124</td>
       <td>0.159</td>
       <td>0.141</td>
       <td>[0.12, 0.161]</td>
@@ -673,7 +673,7 @@
       <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.185</td>
       <td>0.173</td>
-      <td>0.038</td>
+      <td>0.039</td>
       <td>0.125</td>
       <td>0.179</td>
       <td>0.155</td>
@@ -793,7 +793,7 @@
       <td>Imputed Forecaster</td>
       <td>0.250</td>
       <td>0.103</td>
-      <td>0.019</td>
+      <td>0.020</td>
       <td>0.074</td>
       <td>0.177</td>
       <td>0.162</td>
@@ -1156,7 +1156,7 @@
       <td>0.078</td>
       <td>0.137</td>
       <td>0.192</td>
-      <td>0.175</td>
+      <td>0.176</td>
       <td>[0.153, 0.198]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>18%</td>
@@ -1213,7 +1213,7 @@
       <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
       <td>0.203</td>
       <td>0.200</td>
-      <td>0.068</td>
+      <td>0.069</td>
       <td>0.153</td>
       <td>0.201</td>
       <td>0.178</td>
@@ -1329,21 +1329,6 @@
     </tr>
     <tr>
       <td>79</td>
-      <td>Google</td>
-      <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
-      <td>0.220</td>
-      <td>0.164</td>
-      <td>0.101</td>
-      <td>0.141</td>
-      <td>0.192</td>
-      <td>0.181</td>
-      <td>[0.157, 0.204]</td>
-      <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>21%</td>
-      <td>0%</td>
-    </tr>
-    <tr>
-      <td>80</td>
       <td>Meta</td>
       <td>Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot)</td>
       <td>0.206</td>
@@ -1357,6 +1342,21 @@
       <td>23%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
     </tr>
+    <tr>
+      <td>80</td>
+      <td>Google</td>
+      <td>Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news with freeze values)</td>
+      <td>0.220</td>
+      <td>0.164</td>
+      <td>0.101</td>
+      <td>0.141</td>
+      <td>0.192</td>
+      <td>0.181</td>
+      <td>[0.157, 0.204]</td>
+      <td>&lt;0.001</td>
+      <td>21%</td>
+      <td>0%</td>
+    </tr>
     <tr>
       <td>81</td>
       <td>OpenAI</td>
@@ -1378,7 +1378,7 @@
       <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
       <td>0.212</td>
       <td>0.190</td>
-      <td>0.089</td>
+      <td>0.090</td>
       <td>0.154</td>
       <td>0.201</td>
       <td>0.183</td>
@@ -1393,7 +1393,7 @@
       <td>LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news</td>
       <td>0.237</td>
       <td>0.167</td>
-      <td>0.066</td>
+      <td>0.067</td>
       <td>0.132</td>
       <td>0.202</td>
       <td>0.184</td>
@@ -1663,7 +1663,7 @@
       <td>Claude-2.1 (zero shot)</td>
       <td>0.221</td>
       <td>0.214</td>
-      <td>0.090</td>
+      <td>0.091</td>
       <td>0.170</td>
       <td>0.218</td>
       <td>0.196</td>

leaderboards/html/leaderboard_overall.html

@@ -66,7 +66,7 @@
     </head>
     <body>
         <div class="container mt-4">
-    <h1>Leaderboard: overall</h1><p class="updated-date">Updated Mar. 02, 2025</p>
+    <h1>Leaderboard: overall</h1><p class="updated-date">Updated Mar. 03, 2025</p>
         <div style="display: flex; align-items: center;">
           <a data-bs-toggle="collapse" data-bs-target="#descriptionCollapse" aria-expanded="false"
              aria-controls="descriptionCollapse" style="text-decoration: none; color: inherit;
@@ -183,7 +183,7 @@
       <td>0.139</td>
       <td>0.126</td>
       <td>[0.12, 0.132]</td>
-      <td>0.102</td>
+      <td>0.103</td>
       <td>43%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
     </tr>
@@ -294,21 +294,6 @@
     </tr>
     <tr>
       <td>10</td>
-      <td>Anthropic</td>
-      <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
-      <td>0.192</td>
-      <td>0.124</td>
-      <td>0.053</td>
-      <td>0.094</td>
-      <td>0.158</td>
-      <td>0.143</td>
-      <td>[0.136, 0.15]</td>
-      <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>42%</td>
-      <td>0%</td>
-    </tr>
-    <tr>
-      <td>11</td>
       <td>OpenAI</td>
       <td>GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad)</td>
       <td>0.172</td>
@@ -322,6 +307,21 @@
       <td>31%</td>
       <td>0%</td>
     </tr>
+    <tr>
+      <td>11</td>
+      <td>Anthropic</td>
+      <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot with freeze values)</td>
+      <td>0.192</td>
+      <td>0.124</td>
+      <td>0.053</td>
+      <td>0.094</td>
+      <td>0.158</td>
+      <td>0.143</td>
+      <td>[0.136, 0.15]</td>
+      <td>&lt;0.001</td>
+      <td>42%</td>
+      <td>0%</td>
+    </tr>
     <tr>
       <td>12</td>
       <td>OpenAI</td>
@@ -644,7 +644,7 @@
       <td>0.186</td>
       <td>0.164</td>
       <td>0.088</td>
-      <td>0.132</td>
+      <td>0.131</td>
       <td>0.175</td>
       <td>0.159</td>
       <td>[0.153, 0.165]</td>
@@ -704,7 +704,7 @@
       <td>0.186</td>
       <td>0.168</td>
       <td>0.094</td>
-      <td>0.137</td>
+      <td>0.136</td>
       <td>0.177</td>
       <td>0.161</td>
       <td>[0.154, 0.168]</td>
@@ -778,7 +778,7 @@
       <td>Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values)</td>
       <td>0.221</td>
       <td>0.141</td>
-      <td>0.064</td>
+      <td>0.063</td>
       <td>0.108</td>
       <td>0.181</td>
       <td>0.164</td>
@@ -958,7 +958,7 @@
       <td>Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
       <td>0.211</td>
       <td>0.166</td>
-      <td>0.093</td>
+      <td>0.092</td>
       <td>0.135</td>
       <td>0.188</td>
       <td>0.173</td>
@@ -1153,7 +1153,7 @@
       <td>Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
       <td>0.216</td>
       <td>0.185</td>
-      <td>0.098</td>
+      <td>0.097</td>
       <td>0.148</td>
       <td>0.200</td>
       <td>0.182</td>
@@ -1194,6 +1194,21 @@
     </tr>
     <tr>
       <td>70</td>
+      <td>Mistral AI</td>
+      <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot)</td>
+      <td>0.214</td>
+      <td>0.179</td>
+      <td>0.114</td>
+      <td>0.151</td>
+      <td>0.196</td>
+      <td>0.183</td>
+      <td>[0.176, 0.19]</td>
+      <td>&lt;0.001</td>
+      <td>27%</td>
+      <td>0%</td>
+    </tr>
+    <tr>
+      <td>71</td>
       <td>Qwen</td>
       <td>Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 3)</td>
       <td>0.218</td>
@@ -1207,28 +1222,13 @@
       <td>25%</td>
       <td>4%</td>
     </tr>
-    <tr>
-      <td>71</td>
-      <td>Mistral AI</td>
-      <td>Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot)</td>
-      <td>0.214</td>
-      <td>0.179</td>
-      <td>0.114</td>
-      <td>0.152</td>
-      <td>0.196</td>
-      <td>0.183</td>
-      <td>[0.176, 0.19]</td>
-      <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>27%</td>
-      <td>0%</td>
-    </tr>
     <tr>
       <td>72</td>
       <td>Google</td>
       <td>Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 1)</td>
       <td>0.219</td>
       <td>0.181</td>
-      <td>0.102</td>
+      <td>0.101</td>
       <td>0.147</td>
       <td>0.200</td>
       <td>0.183</td>
@@ -1288,7 +1288,7 @@
       <td>Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot)</td>
       <td>0.208</td>
       <td>0.195</td>
-      <td>0.125</td>
+      <td>0.124</td>
       <td>0.165</td>
       <td>0.202</td>
       <td>0.187</td>
@@ -1876,7 +1876,7 @@
       <td>0.104</td>
       <td>0.165</td>
       <td>0.244</td>
-      <td>0.221</td>
+      <td>0.222</td>
       <td>[0.215, 0.228]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>25%</td>
@@ -1954,7 +1954,7 @@
       <td>0.227</td>
       <td>[0.22, 0.234]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
-      <td>32%</td>
+      <td>31%</td>
       <td>19%</td>
     </tr>
     <tr>
@@ -1996,7 +1996,7 @@
       <td>0.121</td>
       <td>0.189</td>
       <td>0.258</td>
-      <td>0.234</td>
+      <td>0.233</td>
       <td>[0.228, 0.239]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>24%</td>
@@ -2161,7 +2161,7 @@
       <td>0.161</td>
       <td>0.254</td>
       <td>0.315</td>
-      <td>0.280</td>
+      <td>0.281</td>
       <td>[0.273, 0.288]</td>
       <td>&lt;0.001</td>
       <td>25%</td>