import pandas as pd import numpy as np def calculate_adx(df, period=14): df = df.copy() # Calculate True Range df['h_l'] = df['high'] - df['low'] df['h_pc'] = (df['high'] - df['close'].shift(1)).abs() df['l_pc'] = (df['low'] - df['close'].shift(1)).abs() df['tr'] = df[['h_l', 'h_pc', 'l_pc']].max(axis=1) # Calculate Directional Movement df['+dm'] = np.where((df['high'] - df['high'].shift(1)) > (df['low'].shift(1) - df['low']), np.maximum(df['high'] - df['high'].shift(1), 0), 0) df['-dm'] = np.where((df['low'].shift(1) - df['low']) > (df['high'] - df['high'].shift(1)), np.maximum(df['low'].shift(1) - df['low'], 0), 0) alpha = 1 / period df['tr_smooth'] = df['tr'].ewm(alpha=alpha, adjust=False).mean() * period df['+dm_smooth'] = df['+dm'].ewm(alpha=alpha, adjust=False).mean() * period df['-dm_smooth'] = df['-dm'].ewm(alpha=alpha, adjust=False).mean() * period df['+di'] = 100 * (df['+dm_smooth'] / df['tr_smooth']) df['-di'] = 100 * (df['-dm_smooth'] / df['tr_smooth']) df['dx'] = 100 * (df['+di'] - df['-di']).abs() / (df['+di'] + df['-di']).replace(0, 1) df['adx'] = df['dx'].ewm(alpha=alpha, adjust=False).mean() return df def run_stats(): # Use February tick data because it's a full month and manageable print("Loading tick data (Feb 2026)...") ticks = pd.read_parquet('ticks_XAUUSD.sc_2026_02.parquet') print("Resampling to OHLC...") ticks['time_dt'] = pd.to_datetime(ticks['time_msc'], unit='ms') ticks.set_index('time_dt', inplace=True) # M1 Resample m1 = ticks['bid'].resample('1min').ohlc() m1.dropna(inplace=True) m1 = calculate_adx(m1, 14) # M5 Resample m5 = ticks['bid'].resample('5min').ohlc() m5.dropna(inplace=True) m5 = calculate_adx(m5, 14) # M15 Resample m15 = ticks['bid'].resample('15min').ohlc() m15.dropna(inplace=True) m15 = calculate_adx(m15, 14) # Reindex to M1 print("Combining Dataframes...") df = m1[['close', 'adx']].rename(columns={'adx': 'adx_M1'}) df = df.join(m5[['adx']].rename(columns={'adx': 'adx_M5'})).ffill() df = df.join(m15[['adx']].rename(columns={'adx': 'adx_M15'})).ffill() df.dropna(inplace=True) t1, t5, t15 = 20, 16, 16 a1 = (df['adx_M1'] >= t1).astype(int) a5 = (df['adx_M5'] >= t5).astype(int) a15 = (df['adx_M15'] >= t15).astype(int) df['phase'] = 0 df.loc[(a1==0) & (a5==0) & (a15==0), 'phase'] = 1 df.loc[(a1==0) & (a5==0) & (a15==1), 'phase'] = 2 df.loc[(a1==0) & (a5==1) & (a15==0), 'phase'] = 3 df.loc[(a1==0) & (a5==1) & (a15==1), 'phase'] = 4 df.loc[(a1==1) & (a5==0) & (a15==0), 'phase'] = 5 df.loc[(a1==1) & (a5==0) & (a15==1), 'phase'] = 6 df.loc[(a1==1) & (a5==1) & (a15==0), 'phase'] = 7 df.loc[(a1==1) & (a5==1) & (a15==1), 'phase'] = 8 # Phase Transitions df['phase_prev'] = df['phase'].shift(1) df['is_transition'] = df['phase'] != df['phase_prev'] total_days = (df.index[-1] - df.index[0]).total_seconds() / 86400 total_transitions = df['is_transition'].sum() - 1 # Remove first row True print("\n--- TRANSITION FREQUENCY ---") print(f"Dataset span: {total_days:.2f} Days") print(f"Average transitions per DAY: {total_transitions / total_days:.1f}") print(f"Average transitions per WEEK: {total_transitions / total_days * 5:.1f} (5 trading days)") print(f"Average transitions per MONTH: {total_transitions / total_days * 20:.1f} (20 trading days)") print("\n--- PHASE DISTRIBUTION (%) ---") phase_counts = df['phase'].value_counts(normalize=True) * 100 print(phase_counts.sort_index().round(2)) print("\n--- TRANSITION MATRIX (%) ---") trans_df = df[df['is_transition']][1:] matrix = trans_df.groupby(['phase_prev', 'phase']).size().unstack(fill_value=0) matrix = matrix.div(matrix.sum(axis=1), axis=0) * 100 print(matrix.round(2)) if __name__ == '__main__': run_stats()