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|
| model_name: WNV-R0 |
| model_version: "1.0" |
| model_type: Process-based epidemiological model |
| primary_task: Thermal suitability Estimation |
| domain: West Nile Virus (WNV) Transmission Potential |
|
|
| organization: HeiPlanet |
| date_created: "2026-01-12" |
| contact: julian.heidecke@iwr.uni-heidelberg.de |
|
|
| description: > |
| WNV-R0 estimates a relative version of the basic reproduction number (R₀) |
| for WNV transmission by Culex pipiens using ambient temperature data. |
| The model is intended for seasonal and regional temperature suitability |
| assessments rather than real-time forecasting of WNV outbreaks. |
| |
| intended_use: |
| in_scope: |
| - Temperature-driven seasonal WNV risk assessment |
| - Regional comparison of thermal suitability |
| - Historical warming impact assessments on transmission potential |
| - Climate scenario analysis |
| - Public health preparedness planning |
|
|
| out_of_scope: |
| - Individual risk prediction |
| - Real-time outbreak forecasting |
| - Automated policy decisions |
|
|
| architecture: |
| type: Process-based epidemiological model |
| characteristics: |
| - Ross-Macdonald type relative reproduction number |
| - Derived from deterministic compartmental vector–host model |
| - Temperature-dependent mosquito-pathogen parameters for Culex pipiens |
|
|
| input_features: |
| temperature: |
| description: Monthly mean ambient temperature |
| units: °C |
|
|
| outputs: |
| r0_estimate: |
| description: Estimated relative reproduction number |
| units: Dimensionless |
|
|
| training_data: |
| sources: |
| - Laboratory experimental data on mosquito-pathogen traits |
| - Temperature response curves were fitted using Bayesian hierarchical models |
|
|
| validation: |
| testing_data: |
| description: Historical WNV outbreak records in Europe |
| metrics: |
| - Seasonal and geographical alignment between R0 and cases |
| - Rank correlation coefficients |
| - Overlap between lab-based and field-observed "optimal" temperature for transmission |
|
|
| assumptions: |
| - R₀ is a measure of long-term average transmission under constant temperatures |
| - Homogeneous spatial mixing |
| - No explicit modeling of interventions |
| - No intra-species mosquito variability in temperature sensitivity |
|
|
| limitations: |
| - Deterministic structure |
| - Neglects host community composition and immunity dynamics |
| - Only focused on temperature-driven effects on transmission potential via mosquito-pathogen traits |
| - Accurate risk predictions need to account for additional climatic factors |
| - Cannot predict number of cases |
| - Cannot account for potential adaptation of mosquito populations to increasing temperatures |
| - Relative R₀ cannot be interpreted as a threshold parameter like absolute R₀ |
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|
|
| bias_and_fairness: |
| - Based on laboratory data |
| - Only validated against WNV observations in Europe (and to some extent in the USA) |
|
|
| potential_harms: |
| - Misuse without expert review |
| - Misinterpretation of outputs |
|
|
| risk_mitigation: |
| - Expert review |
| - Communication of limitations and uncertainty |
|
|
| maintenance: |
| update_policy: Updates as new data become available |
| development_approach: Continued methodological updates and model extensions |
|
|
| datasets: |
| - Laboratory experimental data on mosquito-pathogen traits compiled through |
| systematic literature review |
| - Copernicus ERA5-Land Climate Data |
| - ECDC human West Nile Neuroinvasive disease cases data for validation |
|
|
| publications: |
| - Heidecke, J., Wallin, J., Fransson, P., Singh, P., Sjödin, H., Stiles, P. C., ... & Rocklöv, J. (2025). Uncovering temperature sensitivity of West Nile virus transmission: Novel computational approaches to mosquito-pathogen trait responses. PLOS Computational Biology, 21(3), e1012866. |
| - Heidecke, J., Fransson, P., Wallin, J., & Rocklöv, J. Thermal Biology-Informed Reproduction Number Explains Spatiotemporal Patterns of West Nile Incidence in Europe. Available at SSRN 5597581. |
