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Two ML tasks:
CT-M1: Drug-Condition Failure Prediction (binary, pair-level)
CT-M2: Failure Category Classification (7/8-way, result-level, non-copper)
Six split strategies (all in-memory, no DB tables needed):
random, cold_drug, cold_condition, temporal, scaffold, degree_balanced
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
import logging
import sqlite3
from pathlib import Path
from typing import Any
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from negbiodb_ct.ct_db import DEFAULT_CT_DB_PATH, get_connection
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Constants
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
CT_SPLIT_STRATEGIES = [
"random",
"cold_drug",
"cold_condition",
"temporal",
"scaffold",
"degree_balanced",
]
# research/14 Section 4.2 temporal cutoffs:
# val = 2018-2019 (pre-COVID), test = 2020+ (includes COVID spike for Exp CT-3)
CT_TEMPORAL_TRAIN_CUTOFF = 2018 # exclusive upper: <=2017 → train
CT_TEMPORAL_VAL_CUTOFF = 2020 # exclusive upper: 2018-2019 → val, 2020+ → test
_DEFAULT_RATIOS: dict[str, float] = {"train": 0.7, "val": 0.1, "test": 0.2}
CATEGORY_TO_INT: dict[str, int] = {
"efficacy": 0,
"enrollment": 1,
"other": 2,
"strategic": 3,
"safety": 4,
"design": 5,
"regulatory": 6,
"pharmacokinetic": 7,
}
# Confidence tier ordering for min_confidence filtering
_TIER_RANK = {"gold": 1, "silver": 2, "bronze": 3, "copper": 4}
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Data Loaders
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def load_ct_pairs_df(
db_path: str | Path = DEFAULT_CT_DB_PATH,
*,
smiles_only: bool = False,
min_confidence: str | None = None,
) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""Load intervention_condition_pairs with enrichment from related tables.
Parameters
----------
db_path : path to CT database
smiles_only : if True, only return pairs where SMILES is available
min_confidence : minimum confidence tier filter.
None → all pairs, "silver" → silver+gold, "gold" → gold only.
Returns
-------
DataFrame with 20 columns (split columns added separately).
"""
conn = get_connection(db_path)
try:
# Pre-compute earliest completion year per (intervention, condition)
conn.execute("DROP TABLE IF EXISTS _pair_years")
conn.execute(
"""CREATE TEMP TABLE _pair_years AS
SELECT tfr.intervention_id, tfr.condition_id,
MIN(CAST(SUBSTR(ct.completion_date, 1, 4) AS INTEGER))
AS earliest_completion_year
FROM trial_failure_results tfr
JOIN clinical_trials ct ON tfr.trial_id = ct.trial_id
WHERE ct.completion_date IS NOT NULL
AND CAST(SUBSTR(ct.completion_date, 1, 4) AS INTEGER)
BETWEEN 1990 AND 2030
GROUP BY tfr.intervention_id, tfr.condition_id"""
)
# Pre-compute target counts per intervention
conn.execute("DROP TABLE IF EXISTS _target_counts")
conn.execute(
"""CREATE TEMP TABLE _target_counts AS
SELECT intervention_id,
COUNT(DISTINCT uniprot_accession) AS target_count
FROM intervention_targets
GROUP BY intervention_id"""
)
# Build WHERE clause
where_parts: list[str] = []
if smiles_only:
where_parts.append("i.canonical_smiles IS NOT NULL")
if min_confidence is not None:
rank = _TIER_RANK.get(min_confidence)
if rank is None:
raise ValueError(f"Unknown confidence tier: {min_confidence}")
allowed = [t for t, r in _TIER_RANK.items() if r <= rank]
placeholders = ", ".join(f"'{t}'" for t in allowed)
where_parts.append(
f"icp.best_confidence IN ({placeholders})"
)
where_clause = ""
if where_parts:
where_clause = "WHERE " + " AND ".join(where_parts)
sql = f"""
SELECT
icp.pair_id,
icp.intervention_id,
icp.condition_id,
i.canonical_smiles AS smiles,
i.inchikey,
i.inchikey_connectivity,
i.chembl_id,
i.molecular_type,
i.intervention_type,
c.condition_name,
c.mesh_id,
icp.best_confidence AS confidence_tier,
icp.primary_failure_category,
icp.num_trials,
icp.num_sources,
icp.highest_phase_reached,
icp.intervention_degree,
icp.condition_degree,
COALESCE(tc.target_count, 0) AS target_count,
py.earliest_completion_year
FROM intervention_condition_pairs icp
JOIN interventions i ON icp.intervention_id = i.intervention_id
JOIN conditions c ON icp.condition_id = c.condition_id
LEFT JOIN _pair_years py
ON icp.intervention_id = py.intervention_id
AND icp.condition_id = py.condition_id
LEFT JOIN _target_counts tc
ON icp.intervention_id = tc.intervention_id
{where_clause}
ORDER BY icp.pair_id
"""
df = pd.read_sql_query(sql, conn)
# Cleanup temp tables
conn.execute("DROP TABLE IF EXISTS _pair_years")
conn.execute("DROP TABLE IF EXISTS _target_counts")
logger.info(
"Loaded %d CT pairs (smiles_only=%s, min_confidence=%s)",
len(df),
smiles_only,
min_confidence,
)
return df
finally:
conn.close()
def load_ct_m2_data(
db_path: str | Path = DEFAULT_CT_DB_PATH,
) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""Load trial_failure_results for CT-M2 classification (non-copper).
Returns DataFrame with result-level data including trial features.
Adds failure_category_int column.
"""
conn = get_connection(db_path)
try:
sql = """
SELECT
tfr.result_id,
tfr.intervention_id,
tfr.condition_id,
tfr.trial_id,
tfr.failure_category,
i.canonical_smiles AS smiles,
i.inchikey,
i.inchikey_connectivity,
i.chembl_id,
i.molecular_type,
c.condition_name,
c.mesh_id,
ct.trial_phase,
ct.randomized,
ct.blinding,
ct.control_type,
ct.enrollment_actual,
ct.sponsor_type,
tfr.highest_phase_reached,
tfr.p_value_primary,
tfr.effect_size,
tfr.primary_endpoint_met,
tfr.result_interpretation,
tfr.confidence_tier,
icp.intervention_degree,
icp.condition_degree,
CAST(SUBSTR(ct.completion_date, 1, 4) AS INTEGER) AS completion_year
FROM trial_failure_results tfr
JOIN interventions i ON tfr.intervention_id = i.intervention_id
JOIN conditions c ON tfr.condition_id = c.condition_id
LEFT JOIN clinical_trials ct ON tfr.trial_id = ct.trial_id
LEFT JOIN intervention_condition_pairs icp
ON tfr.intervention_id = icp.intervention_id
AND tfr.condition_id = icp.condition_id
WHERE tfr.confidence_tier != 'copper'
ORDER BY tfr.result_id
"""
df = pd.read_sql_query(sql, conn)
# Add integer category column
unknown = set(df["failure_category"].dropna().unique()) - set(
CATEGORY_TO_INT.keys()
)
if unknown:
raise ValueError(
f"Unknown failure categories not in CATEGORY_TO_INT: {unknown}"
)
df["failure_category_int"] = df["failure_category"].map(CATEGORY_TO_INT)
logger.info("Loaded %d CT-M2 results (non-copper)", len(df))
return df
finally:
conn.close()
def load_cto_success_pairs(
cto_path: str | Path,
db_path: str | Path = DEFAULT_CT_DB_PATH,
) -> tuple[pd.DataFrame, set[tuple[int, int]]]:
"""Extract CTO success pairs as CT-M1 positive class.
Returns
-------
(success_df, conflict_pair_keys)
success_df: DataFrame of clean success pairs (Y=1)
conflict_pair_keys: set of (intervention_id, condition_id) tuples
that appear in both success and failure sets
"""
cto_path = Path(cto_path)
if not cto_path.exists():
logger.warning("CTO parquet not found: %s", cto_path)
empty = pd.DataFrame(
columns=[
"intervention_id",
"condition_id",
"smiles",
"inchikey",
"inchikey_connectivity",
"chembl_id",
"molecular_type",
"intervention_type",
"condition_name",
"mesh_id",
]
)
return empty, set()
# Step 1: Load CTO success NCT IDs
cto = pd.read_parquet(cto_path)
success_ncts = cto.loc[cto["labels"] == 1.0, "nct_id"].tolist()
logger.info("CTO success trials: %d", len(success_ncts))
if not success_ncts:
empty = pd.DataFrame(
columns=[
"intervention_id",
"condition_id",
"smiles",
"inchikey",
"inchikey_connectivity",
"chembl_id",
"molecular_type",
"intervention_type",
"condition_name",
"mesh_id",
]
)
return empty, set()
conn = get_connection(db_path)
try:
# Step 2-3: Match NCT IDs → expand to (intervention, condition) pairs
placeholders = ", ".join("?" * len(success_ncts))
sql = f"""
SELECT DISTINCT
ti.intervention_id,
tc.condition_id,
i.canonical_smiles AS smiles,
i.inchikey,
i.inchikey_connectivity,
i.chembl_id,
i.molecular_type,
i.intervention_type,
c.condition_name,
c.mesh_id
FROM clinical_trials ct
JOIN trial_interventions ti ON ct.trial_id = ti.trial_id
JOIN trial_conditions tc ON ct.trial_id = tc.trial_id
JOIN interventions i ON ti.intervention_id = i.intervention_id
JOIN conditions c ON tc.condition_id = c.condition_id
WHERE ct.source_trial_id IN ({placeholders})
AND ct.source_db = 'clinicaltrials_gov'
"""
expanded = pd.read_sql_query(sql, conn, params=success_ncts)
logger.info("CTO expanded to %d (intervention, condition) pairs", len(expanded))
# Step 4: Find conflict pairs
failure_keys = set(
conn.execute(
"SELECT intervention_id, condition_id "
"FROM intervention_condition_pairs"
).fetchall()
)
expanded_keys = set(
zip(expanded["intervention_id"], expanded["condition_id"])
)
conflict_pair_keys = expanded_keys & failure_keys
logger.info("Conflict pairs (in both success+failure): %d", len(conflict_pair_keys))
# Step 5: Remove conflicts from success set
if conflict_pair_keys:
mask = ~pd.Series(
list(zip(expanded["intervention_id"], expanded["condition_id"]))
).isin(conflict_pair_keys)
success_df = expanded[mask.values].reset_index(drop=True)
else:
success_df = expanded.reset_index(drop=True)
logger.info("Clean CTO success pairs: %d", len(success_df))
return success_df, conflict_pair_keys
finally:
conn.close()
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Split Functions — all return dict[pair_id_or_result_id, fold_str]
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def _assign_by_entity_groups(
ids: np.ndarray,
entity_keys: np.ndarray,
seed: int,
ratios: dict[str, float],
) -> dict[int, str]:
"""Generic cold-split: group ids by entity_keys, assign folds to entities.
All ids sharing the same entity_key get the same fold.
"""
# Build entity → [ids] mapping
from collections import defaultdict
entity_to_ids: dict[Any, list[int]] = defaultdict(list)
for id_val, ek in zip(ids, entity_keys):
entity_to_ids[ek].append(id_val)
unique_entities = sorted(entity_to_ids.keys(), key=str)
n = len(unique_entities)
rng = np.random.RandomState(seed)
perm = rng.permutation(n)
train_end = int(n * ratios["train"])
val_end = train_end + int(n * ratios["val"])
fold_map: dict[int, str] = {}
for i, idx in enumerate(perm):
entity = unique_entities[idx]
if i < train_end:
fold = "train"
elif i < val_end:
fold = "val"
else:
fold = "test"
for id_val in entity_to_ids[entity]:
fold_map[id_val] = fold
return fold_map
def generate_ct_random_split(
df: pd.DataFrame,
seed: int = 42,
ratios: dict[str, float] | None = None,
) -> dict[int, str]:
"""Random 70/10/20 split across all items."""
ratios = ratios or _DEFAULT_RATIOS
ids = df["pair_id"].values if "pair_id" in df.columns else df["result_id"].values
n = len(ids)
rng = np.random.RandomState(seed)
perm = rng.permutation(n)
train_end = int(n * ratios["train"])
val_end = train_end + int(n * ratios["val"])
fold_map: dict[int, str] = {}
for i, idx in enumerate(perm):
if i < train_end:
fold_map[int(ids[idx])] = "train"
elif i < val_end:
fold_map[int(ids[idx])] = "val"
else:
fold_map[int(ids[idx])] = "test"
return fold_map
def generate_ct_cold_drug_split(
df: pd.DataFrame,
seed: int = 42,
ratios: dict[str, float] | None = None,
) -> dict[int, str]:
"""Cold-drug split: group by inchikey_connectivity or intervention_id."""
ratios = ratios or _DEFAULT_RATIOS
id_col = "pair_id" if "pair_id" in df.columns else "result_id"
ids = df[id_col].values
# Build entity keys: inchikey_connectivity for SMILES, iid_ prefix for non-SMILES
has_ik = df["inchikey_connectivity"].notna()
entity_keys = np.where(
has_ik,
df["inchikey_connectivity"].values,
"iid_" + df["intervention_id"].astype(str).values,
)
return _assign_by_entity_groups(ids, entity_keys, seed, ratios)
def generate_ct_cold_condition_split(
df: pd.DataFrame,
seed: int = 42,
ratios: dict[str, float] | None = None,
) -> dict[int, str]:
"""Cold-condition split: group by mesh_id or condition_id."""
ratios = ratios or _DEFAULT_RATIOS
id_col = "pair_id" if "pair_id" in df.columns else "result_id"
ids = df[id_col].values
has_mesh = df["mesh_id"].notna()
entity_keys = np.where(
has_mesh,
df["mesh_id"].values,
"cid_" + df["condition_id"].astype(str).values,
)
return _assign_by_entity_groups(ids, entity_keys, seed, ratios)
def generate_ct_temporal_split(
df: pd.DataFrame,
train_cutoff: int = CT_TEMPORAL_TRAIN_CUTOFF,
val_cutoff: int = CT_TEMPORAL_VAL_CUTOFF,
) -> dict[int, str]:
"""Temporal split based on earliest_completion_year or completion_year.
<=2017 → train, 2018-2019 → val, 2020+ → test.
NULL → train (conservative).
"""
id_col = "pair_id" if "pair_id" in df.columns else "result_id"
year_col = (
"earliest_completion_year"
if "earliest_completion_year" in df.columns
else "completion_year"
)
ids = df[id_col].values
years = df[year_col].values
folds = np.full(len(df), "train", dtype=object)
not_null = pd.notna(years)
folds[not_null & (years >= train_cutoff) & (years < val_cutoff)] = "val"
folds[not_null & (years >= val_cutoff)] = "test"
return {int(id_val): fold for id_val, fold in zip(ids, folds)}
def generate_ct_scaffold_split(
df: pd.DataFrame,
seed: int = 42,
ratios: dict[str, float] | None = None,
) -> dict[int, str | None]:
"""Scaffold split via Murcko frameworks.
Non-SMILES pairs → None (NULL). Only SMILES-having pairs participate.
"""
from rdkit import Chem
from rdkit.Chem.Scaffolds.MurckoScaffold import GetScaffoldForMol
ratios = ratios or _DEFAULT_RATIOS
id_col = "pair_id" if "pair_id" in df.columns else "result_id"
# Separate SMILES and non-SMILES
has_smiles = df["smiles"].notna()
smiles_df = df[has_smiles]
no_smiles_df = df[~has_smiles]
# Assign NULL to non-SMILES items
fold_map: dict[int, str | None] = {
int(v): None for v in no_smiles_df[id_col].values
}
if len(smiles_df) == 0:
return fold_map
# Compute scaffolds: group by inchikey_connectivity to avoid duplicates
ik_col = "inchikey_connectivity"
ik_to_scaffold: dict[str, str] = {}
for ik, smi in zip(smiles_df[ik_col], smiles_df["smiles"]):
if pd.isna(ik) or ik in ik_to_scaffold:
continue
mol = Chem.MolFromSmiles(smi)
if mol is None:
ik_to_scaffold[ik] = "NONE"
else:
try:
scaf = GetScaffoldForMol(mol)
ik_to_scaffold[ik] = Chem.MolToSmiles(scaf) if scaf else "NONE"
except Exception:
ik_to_scaffold[ik] = "NONE"
# For rows without inchikey_connectivity, use intervention_id as key
has_ik = smiles_df[ik_col].notna()
entities = np.where(
has_ik,
smiles_df[ik_col].values,
"iid_" + smiles_df["intervention_id"].astype(str).values,
)
row_to_entity: dict[int, str] = dict(
zip(smiles_df[id_col].astype(int), entities)
)
# Build scaffold → [entity_keys] mapping
from collections import defaultdict
scaffold_to_entities: dict[str, set[str]] = defaultdict(set)
entity_to_ids: dict[str, list[int]] = defaultdict(list)
for row_id, entity in row_to_entity.items():
scaffold = ik_to_scaffold.get(entity, "NONE")
scaffold_to_entities[scaffold].add(entity)
entity_to_ids[entity].append(row_id)
# Count pairs per scaffold for greedy assignment
scaffold_sizes = []
for scaf, entities in scaffold_to_entities.items():
n_pairs = sum(len(entity_to_ids[e]) for e in entities)
scaffold_sizes.append((n_pairs, scaf))
scaffold_sizes.sort(reverse=True)
# Group by size, shuffle within same-size groups
rng = np.random.RandomState(seed)
sorted_scaffolds = []
i = 0
while i < len(scaffold_sizes):
j = i
while j < len(scaffold_sizes) and scaffold_sizes[j][0] == scaffold_sizes[i][0]:
j += 1
group = [s[1] for s in scaffold_sizes[i:j]]
rng.shuffle(group)
sorted_scaffolds.extend(group)
i = j
# Greedy fill: train first, then val, then test
total_smiles = len(smiles_df)
target_train = int(total_smiles * ratios["train"])
target_val = target_train + int(total_smiles * ratios["val"])
running = 0
for scaf in sorted_scaffolds:
if running < target_train:
fold = "train"
elif running < target_val:
fold = "val"
else:
fold = "test"
for entity in scaffold_to_entities[scaf]:
for row_id in entity_to_ids[entity]:
fold_map[row_id] = fold
running += 1
return fold_map
def generate_ct_degree_balanced_split(
df: pd.DataFrame,
seed: int = 42,
ratios: dict[str, float] | None = None,
n_bins: int = 10,
) -> dict[int, str]:
"""Degree-balanced split using log-scale binning."""
ratios = ratios or _DEFAULT_RATIOS
id_col = "pair_id" if "pair_id" in df.columns else "result_id"
ids = df[id_col].values
i_deg = np.maximum(df["intervention_degree"].fillna(1).values, 1).astype(float)
c_deg = np.maximum(df["condition_degree"].fillna(1).values, 1).astype(float)
# Log-scale bin edges
i_bins = np.logspace(
np.log10(i_deg.min()), np.log10(i_deg.max() + 1), n_bins + 1
)
c_bins = np.logspace(
np.log10(c_deg.min()), np.log10(c_deg.max() + 1), n_bins + 1
)
i_bin_idx = np.clip(np.digitize(i_deg, i_bins) - 1, 0, n_bins - 1)
c_bin_idx = np.clip(np.digitize(c_deg, c_bins) - 1, 0, n_bins - 1)
bin_keys = i_bin_idx * n_bins + c_bin_idx
# Stratified split within each bin
rng = np.random.RandomState(seed)
fold_map: dict[int, str] = {}
for bin_val in np.unique(bin_keys):
mask = bin_keys == bin_val
bin_ids = ids[mask]
n = len(bin_ids)
perm = rng.permutation(n)
train_end = int(n * ratios["train"])
val_end = train_end + int(n * ratios["val"])
for i, idx in enumerate(perm):
if i < train_end:
fold_map[int(bin_ids[idx])] = "train"
elif i < val_end:
fold_map[int(bin_ids[idx])] = "val"
else:
fold_map[int(bin_ids[idx])] = "test"
return fold_map
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Split Application Functions
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def apply_all_ct_splits(
pairs_df: pd.DataFrame,
seed: int = 42,
) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""Apply all 6 CT split strategies to pairs_df. Returns a copy."""
df = pairs_df.copy()
splits = {
"split_random": generate_ct_random_split(df, seed),
"split_cold_drug": generate_ct_cold_drug_split(df, seed),
"split_cold_condition": generate_ct_cold_condition_split(df, seed),
"split_temporal": generate_ct_temporal_split(df),
"split_scaffold": generate_ct_scaffold_split(df, seed),
"split_degree_balanced": generate_ct_degree_balanced_split(df, seed),
}
id_col = "pair_id" if "pair_id" in df.columns else "result_id"
for col_name, fold_map in splits.items():
df[col_name] = df[id_col].map(fold_map)
return df
def apply_ct_m1_splits(
df: pd.DataFrame,
seed: int = 42,
) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""Apply 3 M1-relevant splits. Returns a copy.
Uses intervention_id/condition_id for cold grouping on the full merged set.
"""
result = df.copy()
# For M1, we use a synthetic row index as ID
result = result.reset_index(drop=True)
result["_m1_id"] = result.index
# Random split
n = len(result)
rng = np.random.RandomState(seed)
perm = rng.permutation(n)
ratios = _DEFAULT_RATIOS
train_end = int(n * ratios["train"])
val_end = train_end + int(n * ratios["val"])
random_map: dict[int, str] = {}
for i, idx in enumerate(perm):
if i < train_end:
random_map[idx] = "train"
elif i < val_end:
random_map[idx] = "val"
else:
random_map[idx] = "test"
result["split_random"] = result["_m1_id"].map(random_map)
# Cold drug split
has_ik = result["inchikey_connectivity"].notna()
entity_keys = np.where(
has_ik,
result["inchikey_connectivity"].values,
"iid_" + result["intervention_id"].astype(str).values,
)
cold_drug_map = _assign_by_entity_groups(
result["_m1_id"].values, entity_keys, seed + 1, ratios
)
result["split_cold_drug"] = result["_m1_id"].map(cold_drug_map)
# Cold condition split
has_mesh = result["mesh_id"].notna()
cond_keys = np.where(
has_mesh,
result["mesh_id"].values,
"cid_" + result["condition_id"].astype(str).values,
)
cold_cond_map = _assign_by_entity_groups(
result["_m1_id"].values, cond_keys, seed + 2, ratios
)
result["split_cold_condition"] = result["_m1_id"].map(cold_cond_map)
result = result.drop(columns=["_m1_id"])
return result
def apply_ct_m2_splits(
m2_df: pd.DataFrame,
seed: int = 42,
) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""Apply 6 splits to M2 result-level data. Returns a copy.
Scaffold split: non-SMILES results → NULL.
"""
df = m2_df.copy()
splits = {
"split_random": generate_ct_random_split(df, seed),
"split_cold_drug": generate_ct_cold_drug_split(df, seed),
"split_cold_condition": generate_ct_cold_condition_split(df, seed),
"split_temporal": generate_ct_temporal_split(df),
"split_scaffold": generate_ct_scaffold_split(df, seed),
"split_degree_balanced": generate_ct_degree_balanced_split(df, seed),
}
for col_name, fold_map in splits.items():
df[col_name] = df["result_id"].map(fold_map)
return df
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# CT-M1 Dataset Builder
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def build_ct_m1_dataset(
pairs_df: pd.DataFrame,
success_df: pd.DataFrame,
conflict_keys: set[tuple[int, int]],
output_dir: str | Path,
seed: int = 42,
) -> dict:
"""Build CT-M1 binary dataset: failure (Y=0) vs CTO success (Y=1).
Parameters
----------
pairs_df : silver+gold failure pairs (from load_ct_pairs_df with
min_confidence='silver')
success_df : clean CTO success pairs (from load_cto_success_pairs)
conflict_keys : set of (intervention_id, condition_id) conflict pairs
output_dir : output directory
seed : random seed
Returns dict with keys: balanced, realistic, smiles_only
"""
output_dir = Path(output_dir)
output_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
# Step 1: Remove conflict pairs from failure side
if conflict_keys:
mask = ~pd.Series(
list(zip(pairs_df["intervention_id"], pairs_df["condition_id"]))
).isin(conflict_keys)
clean_failures = pairs_df[mask.values].copy()
else:
clean_failures = pairs_df.copy()
clean_failures["Y"] = 0
logger.info("Clean failure pairs (silver+gold, conflict-free): %d", len(clean_failures))
# Step 2: Add Y=1 to success
success = success_df.copy()
success["Y"] = 1
# Step 3: Merge full set and apply splits
# pd.concat fills missing columns (e.g. confidence_tier for Y=1 rows) with NaN
merged = pd.concat(
[clean_failures, success],
ignore_index=True,
)
merged = apply_ct_m1_splits(merged, seed)
n_pos = int((merged["Y"] == 1).sum())
n_neg = int((merged["Y"] == 0).sum())
logger.info("M1 merged: %d pos + %d neg = %d total", n_pos, n_neg, len(merged))
results: dict[str, dict] = {}
rng = np.random.RandomState(seed)
# Step 4: Balanced variant
if n_pos > 0 and n_neg > 0:
n_sample = min(n_pos, n_neg)
neg_idx = merged[merged["Y"] == 0].index
pos_idx = merged[merged["Y"] == 1].index
sampled_neg = rng.choice(neg_idx, size=n_sample, replace=False)
sampled_pos = rng.choice(pos_idx, size=n_sample, replace=False)
balanced = merged.loc[np.concatenate([sampled_pos, sampled_neg])].copy()
balanced = balanced.sample(frac=1, random_state=seed).reset_index(drop=True)
path_b = output_dir / "negbiodb_ct_m1_balanced.parquet"
balanced.to_parquet(path_b, compression="zstd", index=False)
results["balanced"] = {
"path": str(path_b),
"n_pos": n_sample,
"n_neg": n_sample,
"total": 2 * n_sample,
}
logger.info("M1 balanced: %d rows → %s", 2 * n_sample, path_b)
# Step 5: Realistic variant (requires both classes)
if n_pos > 0 and n_neg > 0:
path_r = output_dir / "negbiodb_ct_m1_realistic.parquet"
realistic = merged.sample(frac=1, random_state=seed).reset_index(drop=True)
realistic.to_parquet(path_r, compression="zstd", index=False)
results["realistic"] = {
"path": str(path_r),
"n_pos": n_pos,
"n_neg": n_neg,
"total": len(realistic),
}
logger.info("M1 realistic: %d rows → %s", len(realistic), path_r)
else:
logger.warning("M1 realistic skipped: n_pos=%d, n_neg=%d", n_pos, n_neg)
# Step 6: SMILES-only variant
smiles_merged = merged[merged["smiles"].notna()].copy()
n_spos = int((smiles_merged["Y"] == 1).sum())
n_sneg = int((smiles_merged["Y"] == 0).sum())
if n_spos > 0 and n_sneg > 0:
n_sample = min(n_spos, n_sneg)
sneg_idx = smiles_merged[smiles_merged["Y"] == 0].index
spos_idx = smiles_merged[smiles_merged["Y"] == 1].index
sampled_sneg = rng.choice(sneg_idx, size=n_sample, replace=False)
sampled_spos = rng.choice(spos_idx, size=n_sample, replace=False)
smiles_bal = smiles_merged.loc[
np.concatenate([sampled_spos, sampled_sneg])
].copy()
smiles_bal = smiles_bal.sample(frac=1, random_state=seed).reset_index(
drop=True
)
path_s = output_dir / "negbiodb_ct_m1_smiles_only.parquet"
smiles_bal.to_parquet(path_s, compression="zstd", index=False)
results["smiles_only"] = {
"path": str(path_s),
"n_pos": n_sample,
"n_neg": n_sample,
"total": 2 * n_sample,
}
logger.info("M1 smiles_only: %d rows → %s", 2 * n_sample, path_s)
return results
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Export Functions
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def export_ct_failure_dataset(
db_path: str | Path,
output_dir: str | Path,
seed: int = 42,
) -> dict:
"""Export all CT failure pairs with 6 split columns.
Produces:
- negbiodb_ct_pairs.parquet (full dataset, all tiers, no Y column)
- negbiodb_ct_splits.csv (lightweight: IDs + split columns)
"""
output_dir = Path(output_dir)
output_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
pairs_df = load_ct_pairs_df(db_path)
pairs_df = apply_all_ct_splits(pairs_df, seed)
# Write parquet
parquet_path = output_dir / "negbiodb_ct_pairs.parquet"
pairs_df.to_parquet(parquet_path, compression="zstd", index=False)
logger.info("Exported %d pairs → %s", len(pairs_df), parquet_path)
# Write lightweight splits CSV (truncated SMILES for quick ID)
csv_df = pairs_df.copy()
csv_df["smiles_short"] = csv_df["smiles"].str[:14]
csv_cols = [
"pair_id",
"intervention_id",
"condition_id",
"smiles_short",
"chembl_id",
"mesh_id",
] + [c for c in pairs_df.columns if c.startswith("split_")]
csv_path = output_dir / "negbiodb_ct_splits.csv"
csv_df[csv_cols].to_csv(csv_path, index=False)
return {
"total_rows": len(pairs_df),
"parquet_path": str(parquet_path),
"splits_csv_path": str(csv_path),
}
def export_ct_m2_dataset(
m2_df: pd.DataFrame,
output_dir: str | Path,
) -> dict:
"""Export CT-M2 result-level dataset with split columns."""
output_dir = Path(output_dir)
output_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
path = output_dir / "negbiodb_ct_m2.parquet"
m2_df.to_parquet(path, compression="zstd", index=False)
logger.info("Exported %d M2 results → %s", len(m2_df), path)
return {"total_rows": len(m2_df), "parquet_path": str(path)}
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Leakage Report
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def generate_ct_leakage_report(
db_path: str | Path,
cto_path: str | Path | None = None,
output_path: str | Path | None = None,
seed: int = 42,
) -> dict:
"""Generate CT domain integrity and leakage report."""
report: dict[str, Any] = {}
# 1. DB summary
conn = get_connection(db_path)
try:
summary = {}
for table in [
"clinical_trials",
"trial_failure_results",
"interventions",
"conditions",
"intervention_condition_pairs",
]:
count = conn.execute(f"SELECT COUNT(*) FROM {table}").fetchone()[0]
summary[table] = count
tier_dist = dict(
conn.execute(
"SELECT best_confidence, COUNT(*) "
"FROM intervention_condition_pairs GROUP BY best_confidence"
).fetchall()
)
summary["tier_distribution"] = tier_dist
report["db_summary"] = summary
finally:
conn.close()
# 2. Cold split integrity
pairs_df = load_ct_pairs_df(db_path)
pairs_with_splits = apply_all_ct_splits(pairs_df, seed)
cold_integrity: dict[str, dict] = {}
for split_col, entity_col in [
("split_cold_drug", "inchikey_connectivity"),
("split_cold_condition", "mesh_id"),
]:
train_entities = set(
pairs_with_splits.loc[
pairs_with_splits[split_col] == "train", entity_col
].dropna()
)
test_entities = set(
pairs_with_splits.loc[
pairs_with_splits[split_col] == "test", entity_col
].dropna()
)
leaks = train_entities & test_entities
cold_integrity[split_col] = {"leaks": len(leaks)}
report["cold_split_integrity"] = cold_integrity
# 3. Split fold counts
split_counts: dict[str, dict] = {}
for col in [c for c in pairs_with_splits.columns if c.startswith("split_")]:
counts = pairs_with_splits[col].value_counts(dropna=False).to_dict()
split_counts[col] = {str(k): v for k, v in counts.items()}
report["split_fold_counts"] = split_counts
# 3b. Tier distribution per fold
tier_per_fold: dict[str, dict] = {}
for col in [c for c in pairs_with_splits.columns if c.startswith("split_")]:
cross = pd.crosstab(
pairs_with_splits["confidence_tier"],
pairs_with_splits[col],
)
tier_per_fold[col] = cross.to_dict()
report["tier_distribution_per_fold"] = tier_per_fold
# 4. SMILES coverage per fold
smiles_cov: dict[str, dict] = {}
has_smiles = pairs_with_splits["smiles"].notna()
for col in [c for c in pairs_with_splits.columns if c.startswith("split_")]:
cov = {}
for fold in ["train", "val", "test"]:
fold_mask = pairs_with_splits[col] == fold
n_fold = fold_mask.sum()
n_smiles = (fold_mask & has_smiles).sum()
cov[fold] = {
"total": int(n_fold),
"smiles": int(n_smiles),
"pct": round(100 * n_smiles / max(n_fold, 1), 1),
}
smiles_cov[col] = cov
report["smiles_coverage_per_fold"] = smiles_cov
# 5. CTO conflict stats + M1 conflict-free verification
if cto_path:
success_df, conflict_keys = load_cto_success_pairs(cto_path, db_path)
report["cto_conflicts"] = {"n_conflict_pairs": len(conflict_keys)}
# M1 conflict-free verification: ensure no (intervention_id, condition_id)
# appears in both Y=0 and Y=1 after conflict removal
silver_gold = load_ct_pairs_df(db_path, min_confidence="silver")
if conflict_keys:
sg_mask = ~pd.Series(
list(zip(silver_gold["intervention_id"], silver_gold["condition_id"]))
).isin(conflict_keys)
clean_failures = silver_gold[sg_mask.values]
else:
clean_failures = silver_gold
fail_keys = set(
zip(clean_failures["intervention_id"], clean_failures["condition_id"])
)
success_keys = set(
zip(success_df["intervention_id"], success_df["condition_id"])
)
m1_leaks = fail_keys & success_keys
report["m1_conflict_free"] = {
"clean_failures": len(clean_failures),
"clean_success": len(success_df),
"overlapping_pairs": len(m1_leaks),
"verified": len(m1_leaks) == 0,
}
# 6. M2 failure_category × split cross-table
try:
m2_df = load_ct_m2_data(db_path)
m2_with_splits = apply_ct_m2_splits(m2_df, seed)
m2_cross: dict[str, dict] = {}
for split_col in [c for c in m2_with_splits.columns if c.startswith("split_")]:
cross = pd.crosstab(
m2_with_splits["failure_category"],
m2_with_splits[split_col],
)
m2_cross[split_col] = cross.to_dict()
report["m2_category_by_split"] = m2_cross
except Exception as e:
report["m2_category_by_split"] = {"error": str(e)}
# 7. therapeutic_area coverage warning
conn = get_connection(db_path)
try:
ta_count = conn.execute(
"SELECT COUNT(*) FROM conditions WHERE therapeutic_area IS NOT NULL"
).fetchone()[0]
total_cond = conn.execute("SELECT COUNT(*) FROM conditions").fetchone()[0]
report["therapeutic_area_coverage"] = {
"populated": ta_count,
"total": total_cond,
"pct": round(100 * ta_count / max(total_cond, 1), 1),
"warning": "0% coverage — CT-6 should use mesh_id + degree instead"
if ta_count == 0
else None,
}
finally:
conn.close()
# Write JSON if output path given
if output_path:
output_path = Path(output_path)
output_path.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
with open(output_path, "w") as f:
json.dump(report, f, indent=2, default=str)
logger.info("Leakage report → %s", output_path)
return report
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