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README.md

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+---
+license: cc-by-4.0
+pretty_name: "CARD — Causal Recovery of Demand"
+language:
+  - en
+tags:
+  - causal-inference
+  - demand-estimation
+  - econometrics
+  - retail
+  - synthetic-data
+  - benchmark
+size_categories:
+  - 10M<n<100M
+---
+
+# CARD — Causal Recovery of Demand
+
+**Can a model that fits observed demand well still recover causal price
+response, substitution, and counterfactual outcomes when prices and promotions
+are endogenous?**
+
+CARD pairs synthetic retail scanner panels with marketing-copy product
+descriptions that carry the true substitution geometry. Demand is simulated
+from a known data-generating process; in half the cells, promotion depth
+responds to a hidden demand shock, so estimators that ignore endogeneity fit
+the observed data well and still get the counterfactuals wrong. True
+elasticities and counterfactual outcomes are hidden and used only for scoring.
+
+**Code, submission format, and scoring harness:**
+https://github.com/jean-jsj/CARD
+
+## The 8-cell grid
+
+| Axis | Values |
+|---|---|
+| Demand family | log-log demand system / structured random-coefficients discrete choice |
+| Endogeneity | off (control) / on (promotion depth responds to a hidden demand shock; cost-based instruments stay valid) |
+| Market complexity | simple (3 products, 12 stores) / complex (40 products, 731 stores) |
+
+Panels cover 156 weeks — 140 public training weeks plus 16 holdout-context
+weeks whose prices/promotions are public but whose sales are withheld.
+
+## Layout
+
+```
+dev/<cell_slug>/
+  public/    # everything a model may consume
+    transactions_train_public.csv            # product, store, week, units, dollars,
+                                             # price, promo_flag, promo_cost, supply_cost_proxy
+    transactions_holdout_context_public.csv  # holdout weeks: prices/promos public, sales withheld
+    counterfactual_sweep_context_public.csv  # the 14 scored price interventions
+    products_public.csv                      # product_id, product_text, brand_code
+    stores_public.csv                        # store_id, market, chain, household_count
+  hidden/    # DEV SEED ONLY: scoring truth for instant local scoring
+    transactions_full_hidden.csv             # Layer-1 truth (holdout sales)
+    elasticity_truth_hidden.csv              # Layer-2 truth (J x J elasticities)
+    counterfactual_sweep_truth_hidden.csv    # Layer-3 truth (counterfactual demand)
+  release/
+    MANIFEST.json                            # per-file SHA-256
+    scoring_params.json                      # scoring config (family, eval window)
+    release_notes.md, DATASHEET.md
+```
+
+**Data-access rule:** models consume `public/` files only. `hidden/` exists
+for local scoring on the dev seed, never as model input. Eval seeds (added
+later) ship public-only; their truth stays with the maintainer.
+
+## Notes
+
+- **Simple cells ship the same schema with empty `product_text`** — the text
+  surface is a complex-cell feature.
+- **Markets and brand codes are pseudonymized** (`M01…`, `B1…`), consistently
+  across cells and seeds.
+- The panels are **fully synthetic**, calibrated to moments of the IRI
+  academic scanner dataset; no real transactions are included.
+- The generating code is withheld during the evaluation phase, with a
+  SHA-256 commitment to the frozen source published in the GitHub repo
+  (released after the evaluation phase).
+- The benchmark's **actual-data arm** (validity checks on real data) uses the
+  public Dominick's Finer Foods scanner data (Kilts Center, Chicago Booth),
+  downloaded separately — see the GitHub repo.
+
+## License & citation
+
+Data: CC BY 4.0. Author: Juwon Hong. Cite via the GitHub repo's
+`CITATION.cff` (the associated paper reference will be added upon
+publication).

dev/complex_log_log_endogenous_seed001/hidden/elasticity_truth_hidden.csv

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dev/complex_log_log_endogenous_seed001/release/MANIFEST.json

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+{
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-18T05:46:43.834836+00:00",
+  "benchmark": "CARD (Causal Recovery of Demand)",
+  "active_cell": {
+    "model_family": "log_log",
+    "endogeneity": "on",
+    "market_complexity": "complex",
+    "seed": 1
+  },
+  "role": "dev (scoring truth included)",
+  "files": [
+    {
+      "path": "hidden/counterfactual_sweep_truth_hidden.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 649175969,
+      "sha256": "5696740c50c6ee6ffdf76ac785b88d14715fc9d9b6cbbb1a851c5b877c29f8f2"
+    },
+    {
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+      "sha256": "e2ae3297f8d06f94302a8bc08c9a68012cdfd861e94df2e4c168f268c6d47a7f"
+    },
+    {
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+      "sha256": "c00cdeba525266ef29d0dc6b5bd5581c2193ffb4e70b7bfe819b7160523408b4"
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+      "sha256": "95fecebbe255d977e362bde7be24d934857fccd2f7375a1390c7a5aa83a5e8b2"
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+      "sha256": "ce4fcd81cae8b0428c28ab6d32f5427ed60d5d23072708987f4a9765ce992221"
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+      "sha256": "4da842375ee117a71f9320e30e3606069225d090f6485a88f1b847218a328720"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "release/DATASHEET.md",
+      "size_bytes": 1703,
+      "sha256": "3ce175c68961a1c99577b87c7475d03ba160636821e4b4029b6093166f68c16a"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "release/release_notes.md",
+      "size_bytes": 1508,
+      "sha256": "c71fa5131537836d6c3ed487fff66b09f3ba1b2cec82bd0467eac3305bac3223"
+    },
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+      "size_bytes": 278,
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+}

dev/complex_log_log_endogenous_seed001/release/release_notes.md

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+# Causal Demand Benchmark First Pipeline Run
+
+This release folder contains the public-facing files for one benchmark cell:
+complex market, log_log DGP, endogeneity on, seed 001.
+
+## Files
+
+- `public/products_public.csv`: public SKU metadata, family-level text, structured attributes, and image specs.
+- `public/transactions_train_public.csv`: positive-sales (units>0) SKU-store-week transaction rows with anonymized store IDs and public supply-cost proxy. Stores carry a permanent subset of the 40-SKU catalog; carriage is inferable from row presence (>=1 positive train-window row) but is NOT released as an explicit matrix.
+- `public/counterfactual_context_public.csv`: price-policy intervention context.
+
+Hidden DGP parameters, store covariates, calibration quantities, and counterfactual truth are intentionally outside this public release folder.
+
+Log-log cells are conditional category-demand tasks; no outside option is simulated.
+Complex cells include rendered package-style PNG images under `public/images/`.
+
+## Selection
+
+- SKU count: 40
+- SKU cumulative IRI revenue share: 0.8017
+- Synthetic stores: 731
+- Synthetic weeks: 156
+
+
+## CARD packaging (v0.1)
+
+- Two legacy counterfactual context files (DGP-construction fixtures the scorer ignores) are not included in this release.
+- `stores_public.market` and `products_public.brand_code` are pseudonymized (consistent across cells and future seeds).
+- `release/scoring_params.json` carries the scoring config (family, eval-window length, version).

dev/complex_log_log_endogenous_seed001/release/scoring_params.json

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+{
+  "benchmark_version": "9f30910+djk.a5ec4c8a",
+  "benchmark_family": {
+    "active_cell": {
+      "model_family": "log_log",
+      "endogeneity": "on",
+      "market_complexity": "complex",
+      "seed": 1
+    }
+  },
+  "simulation": {
+    "counterfactual_eval_weeks": 16
+  }
+}

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dev/complex_log_log_exogenous_seed001/public/products_public.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
+product_id,product_text,brand_code
+P001,"A gentle softness runs through it, soft and smooth and understated. It settles into the kitchen and the living room, used each day at home. A soft and understated feel lingers, gentle and simply smooth throughout.",B8
+P002,"It offers a silky feel that stays plush and gently pillowy throughout. Keep it in a backpack or a satchel and reach for it anywhere. The softness is luxurious and satiny, pillowy and indulgent against the skin.",B7
+P003,"A pillowy and downy softness runs through it, cushiony and sumptuous. Tuck it into a satchel or the vehicle and carry a little along. A lavish and satiny feel carries through, richly cushiony and downy to the touch.",B8
+P004,"The feel stays gentle and soft, smooth and comfortable to the touch. It joins the daily rotation around the home, kitchen to the living room. It keeps a smooth and gentle softness, plain and comfortable to the touch.",B8
+P005,"It gives a soft and gentle touch that is smooth and comfortably even. It suits a nightstand or bathroom counter, tucked beside the couch nearby. The softness is gentle and easygoing, soft and plainly comfortable to hold.",B6
+P006,"A soft and gentle comfort meets the hand, smooth and quietly familiar. Place it on a bathroom counter or a nightstand beside the couch nearby. It holds a gentle and honest softness, smooth and comfortable in the hand.",B8
+P007,"It feels plush and silky, luxurious from the very first touch. Slip it into a handbag or a backpack and keep some within reach. The touch stays pampering and indulgent, a cloud soft and velvety comfort.",B8
+P008,"It feels soft and smooth and gentle, a comfortable and easy touch. It slips into a handbag or the vehicle door and keeps a piece close. The feel remains simple and soft, a smooth and unfussy gentle softness.",B4
+P009,"A soft and gentle finish defines it, smooth and quietly comfortable throughout. Keep it in the vehicle or a satchel and reach for it anywhere you go. It keeps a quietly gentle softness, soft and simply comfortable in the hand.",B6
+P010,"The tissue feels soft and gentle with a smooth and understated softness. It moves through the kitchen and the living room, used each day at home. The comfort stays understated and soft, gentle and smoothly plain to the touch.",B1
+P011,"It feels honestly soft and smooth with a gentle and easy comfort. Place it around the home so the kitchen and living room stay ready. It carries a gentle and comfortable softness, smooth and honestly understated.",B2
+P012,"The tissue stays soft and comfortable, gentle and smooth and plain. A busy family supply, it stocks the shelf and cuts down on refills. The feel is soft and unfussy, a plain and easygoing smooth softness.",B6
+P013,"A gentle and comfortable softness runs throughout, soft and evenly smooth. It rests on a nightstand or the bedside, ready by the couch each night. The feel stays plain and soft, a gentle and unfussy smooth softness.",B8
+P014,"A comfortable and soft finish carries through, gentle and quietly even. It is a busy family supply, stocking the shelf to last the season. The softness is easygoing and honest, soft and quietly smooth to the touch.",B8
+P015,"The feel is soft and gentle, smooth and comfortable to the hand. It keeps an office break room and a classroom supplied through the week. The softness stays understated and honest, gentle and smooth to the last.",B8
+P016,"Silky and cushiony to the hand, it feels sumptuously soft throughout. It rests neatly on a nightstand or a bathroom counter by the bedside. It carries an indulgent softness, velvety and pampering against the skin every time.",B8
+P017,"A downy and cushiony surface meets the hand, sumptuously soft and silky. It slips into a handbag or a desk drawer and rides along easily. It stays cushiony and satiny, an indulgent softness that feels richly plush.",B8
+P018,"It is plush and pillowy, greeting the skin with a luxurious feel. Set it beside the couch or on the bedside table within easy reach. The feel is sumptuous and cloud soft, a lavish and satiny softness throughout.",B8
+P019,"A gentle softness and a smooth surface combine into a comfortable feel. Stock the shelf for a busy family and lean on it with fewer refills. It carries a simple and gentle comfort, soft and smoothly understated.",B8
+P020,"Soft and smooth to the hand, it stays gentle and easygoing to hold. Leave it on a bathroom counter or the bedside so the couch stays near. The feel stays simple and soft, a gentle and easygoing smooth comfort.",B7
+P021,"A soft and gentle touch meets the skin with a plain and smooth comfort. As a family supply it stocks the shelf and holds through the season. It keeps a soft and understated comfort, smooth and honestly gentle throughout.",B8
+P022,"The feel is smooth and soft, gentle and comfortable and quietly plain. It keeps a classroom and an office break room supplied across the week. A quietly soft comfort carries through, gentle and simply smooth throughout.",B1
+P023,"The surface is soft and smooth to the hand, gently comfortable and easygoing. Small enough for a satchel or a handbag, it rides along with ease. The feel keeps an honest softness, gentle and unfussy and evenly smooth.",B2
+P024,"Soft and gently smooth, it carries a comfortable and honest softness. It suits a nightstand or bedside, tucked beside the couch for that room. A soft and honest comfort lingers on, gentle and understated through and through.",B5
+P025,"Soft and smooth throughout, it carries a gentle and comfortable feel. Stock the shelf so a busy family supply lasts the season on fewer refills. A simple softness runs through it, soft and gentle and easygoing throughout.",B2
+P026,"Sumptuously soft and downy, it offers a cushiony and luxurious touch. It gathers around the home, ready in the kitchen and the living room. A cloud soft and downy feel carries through, sumptuous and pampering throughout.",B7
+P027,"It offers a soft and smooth character with a quietly gentle comfort. It keeps the office break room and the waiting room supplied all week. It keeps a plain and easygoing comfort, soft and quietly gentle throughout.",B8
+P028,"Plainly soft and smooth, a gentle and easygoing softness meets the skin. It goes along on errands, tucking neatly into a handbag or a satchel. It stays smoothly soft and gentle, a simple and comfortable everyday softness.",B5
+P029,"Plush and pillowy from the first touch, it feels luxurious and velvety. Keep it on a nightstand or tucked beside the couch for that room. The character is silky and cloud soft, a pampering and sumptuous softness.",B8
+P030,"It delivers a smooth and soft feel that is gentle and comfortably even. It settles onto a bedside table or nightstand near the quiet couch. It stays comfortably soft and gentle, a plain and understated smooth feel.",B8
+P031,"You feel a soft and smooth finish with a gentle and easy comfort. Keep it on the bathroom counter or a nightstand near the quiet bedside. A gentle and easygoing softness carries through, soft and plainly smooth.",B1
+P032,"Luxurious and silky to the touch, it feels pillowy and richly plush. It sits in the kitchen and the living room for use around the home. A pampering and velvety softness lingers, luxurious and downy in the hand.",B8
+P033,"Gentle and soft to the touch, it stays smooth and comfortable throughout. Made to travel, it tucks into a satchel or a handbag for the road. It holds an honest softness throughout, smooth and quietly comfortable.",B4
+P034,"Velvety and pampering, it greets the skin with a plush and downy softness. It works around the home, from the kitchen to the living room each day. It feels velvety and lavish, a pampering and cushiony softness through and through.",B7
+P035,"It brings a smooth and soft comfort that stays gentle and quietly easy. It keeps a waiting room and an office break room supplied through busy weeks. It holds a smooth and plain comfort, soft and quietly gentle in the hand.",B2
+P036,"Gentle and smooth throughout, it feels soft and quietly comfortable. It covers the kitchen and the living room, used each day around the home. It holds a plain and gentle softness, soft and quietly smooth against the hand.",B7
+P037,"Smooth and soft to the touch, it delivers a gentle and comfortable feel. It lives around the home, close by the kitchen and the living room. The character is quietly soft, a plain and easygoing smooth comfort.",B4
+P038,"Silky and satiny, it carries a downy and cloud soft feel throughout. Keep it moving through the kitchen and the living room, used each day. It keeps a lavish and pillowy comfort, velvety and indulgent to the touch.",B3
+P039,"Soft to the touch and gently smooth, it feels comfortable and simple. It stays on a bedside table or nightstand, close beside the quiet couch. A gentle and comfortable softness lingers, soft and unfussy to the last.",B7
+P040,"The surface feels soft and smooth with a gentle and comfortable finish. It is a family supply that stocks the shelf and lasts the season. The softness reads plain and easygoing, soft and quietly gentle to the touch.",B5

dev/complex_log_log_exogenous_seed001/public/stores_public.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,732 @@
+store_id,market,chain,household_count
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dev/complex_log_log_exogenous_seed001/release/DATASHEET.md

@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+# Datasheet
+
+## Motivation
+
+This benchmark studies counterfactual price-policy demand prediction when observed prices and promotions are endogenous.
+
+## Composition
+
+- Category: facial tissue.
+- Transaction unit: aggregate SKU-store-week, released as positive-sales (units>0) rows only (raw-scanner style). Stores carry a permanent SUBSET of the 40-SKU catalog; public carriage := >=1 positive train-window row for a (product, store) pair. The per-(product,store) stocking matrix is a HIDDEN artifact (hidden/stocking_matrix_hidden.csv), never a public matrix — absence of rows is the only public carriage signal.
+- Product metadata: structured attributes, family-level product text, and image specs/paths for complex cells; compact structured attributes only for simple cells.
+- Public store information: anonymized store IDs only.
+- Public instrument-like variable: supply-cost proxy in the transaction/context rows.
+- Demand framing: log-log cells are conditional category demand. covariance-probit cells use a two-stage structural model (incidence + J-only conditional choice; no outside option).
+
+## Hidden Data
+
+Hidden files contain true DGP parameters, latent shocks, hidden product distance and cross-price matrices, hidden store covariates, the permanent per-(product,store) stocking matrix, IRI calibration quantities, and counterfactual truth.
+
+## Calibration Snapshot
+
+- Zero-sales rate (legacy balanced-grid reference — NOT the released public file, which is positive-rows-only; released realism is characterized by per-store carriage + within-active intermittency): IRI 0.889, synthetic 0.431.
+- Promo rate: IRI 0.268, synthetic 0.229.
+- Median unit price: IRI 1.990, synthetic 1.790.

dev/complex_log_log_exogenous_seed001/release/MANIFEST.json

@@ -0,0 +1,68 @@
+{
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-18T05:46:44.831021+00:00",
+  "benchmark": "CARD (Causal Recovery of Demand)",
+  "active_cell": {
+    "model_family": "log_log",
+    "endogeneity": "off",
+    "market_complexity": "complex",
+    "seed": 1
+  },
+  "role": "dev (scoring truth included)",
+  "files": [
+    {
+      "path": "hidden/counterfactual_sweep_truth_hidden.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 649329826,
+      "sha256": "969cdd846125cfb4b661d3aeb326e41abfd41454b312e6870bb160b8ef23ae6d"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "hidden/elasticity_truth_hidden.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 88966,
+      "sha256": "e2ae3297f8d06f94302a8bc08c9a68012cdfd861e94df2e4c168f268c6d47a7f"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "hidden/transactions_full_hidden.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 146682665,
+      "sha256": "7c22116d61f876d514836d7c8b0cbffdb8f868cad62ccb60de112a5c977b4799"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "public/counterfactual_sweep_context_public.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 296195908,
+      "sha256": "9d6be216670059350c0a05fd8da4579b361ea6b80fbc64efa6c3e6278fbc7367"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "public/products_public.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 9096,
+      "sha256": "95fecebbe255d977e362bde7be24d934857fccd2f7375a1390c7a5aa83a5e8b2"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "public/stores_public.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 18063,
+      "sha256": "fed9d6fd0f0002acae2e177bfbf793b9edf94680bc3a83d9a7bd527b3cd232a7"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "public/transactions_holdout_context_public.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 10472015,
+      "sha256": "8f82d2d6a0c86753235e78df78c8e4f847d1f6403eeb2687658ed3bcbc2ac62b"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "public/transactions_train_public.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 105040390,
+      "sha256": "69a06cebb8e05b119bab8a11634001c0e0d0d730d3fcb8f26c86d58f188f1521"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "release/DATASHEET.md",
+      "size_bytes": 1703,
+      "sha256": "3643441a795d6621fbf896d4ea706b9fb8710ba31643d16ca8b82a0a5af30bb2"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "release/release_notes.md",
+      "size_bytes": 1509,
+      "sha256": "eff9ad913d32bbd50f1fc8829213affab8a868ff3377ebf564ff0cc8889aedb3"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "release/scoring_params.json",
+      "size_bytes": 279,
+      "sha256": "46bbccc1e32f09585dc7516905dbb8f76bd4d1d56d54dc517d230343d8c4df2c"
+    }
+  ]
+}

dev/complex_log_log_exogenous_seed001/release/release_notes.md

@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
+# Causal Demand Benchmark First Pipeline Run
+
+This release folder contains the public-facing files for one benchmark cell:
+complex market, log_log DGP, endogeneity off, seed 001.
+
+## Files
+
+- `public/products_public.csv`: public SKU metadata, family-level text, structured attributes, and image specs.
+- `public/transactions_train_public.csv`: positive-sales (units>0) SKU-store-week transaction rows with anonymized store IDs and public supply-cost proxy. Stores carry a permanent subset of the 40-SKU catalog; carriage is inferable from row presence (>=1 positive train-window row) but is NOT released as an explicit matrix.
+- `public/counterfactual_context_public.csv`: price-policy intervention context.
+
+Hidden DGP parameters, store covariates, calibration quantities, and counterfactual truth are intentionally outside this public release folder.
+
+Log-log cells are conditional category-demand tasks; no outside option is simulated.
+Complex cells include rendered package-style PNG images under `public/images/`.
+
+## Selection
+
+- SKU count: 40
+- SKU cumulative IRI revenue share: 0.8017
+- Synthetic stores: 731
+- Synthetic weeks: 156
+
+
+## CARD packaging (v0.1)
+
+- Two legacy counterfactual context files (DGP-construction fixtures the scorer ignores) are not included in this release.
+- `stores_public.market` and `products_public.brand_code` are pseudonymized (consistent across cells and future seeds).
+- `release/scoring_params.json` carries the scoring config (family, eval-window length, version).

dev/complex_log_log_exogenous_seed001/release/scoring_params.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "benchmark_version": "9f30910+djk.a5ec4c8a",
+  "benchmark_family": {
+    "active_cell": {
+      "model_family": "log_log",
+      "endogeneity": "off",
+      "market_complexity": "complex",
+      "seed": 1
+    }
+  },
+  "simulation": {
+    "counterfactual_eval_weeks": 16
+  }
+}

dev/simple_covariance_probit_exogenous_seed001/hidden/elasticity_truth_hidden.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,10 @@
+priced_product_id,affected_product_id,epsilon_star,epsilon_star_conditional,support
+P001,P001,-1.7461788791810244,-1.4598633352448862,True
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+P002,P003,0.6821040217516255,0.8453480194947134,True
+P003,P003,-1.9123852426791135,-1.7402280478990515,True

dev/simple_covariance_probit_exogenous_seed001/public/products_public.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
+product_id,product_text,brand_code
+P001,,B8
+P002,,B7
+P003,,B8

dev/simple_covariance_probit_exogenous_seed001/public/stores_public.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+store_id,market,chain,household_count
+S0001,M19,Chain118,4070.0
+S0002,M19,Chain132,221.0
+S0003,M19,Chain123,3894.0
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+S0011,M24,Chain132,2874.0
+S0012,M24,Chain118,528.0

dev/simple_covariance_probit_exogenous_seed001/public/transactions_holdout_context_public.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,577 @@
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dev/simple_covariance_probit_exogenous_seed001/release/DATASHEET.md

@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+# Datasheet
+
+## Motivation
+
+This benchmark studies counterfactual price-policy demand prediction when observed prices and promotions are endogenous.
+
+## Composition
+
+- Category: facial tissue.
+- Transaction unit: aggregate SKU-store-week, released as positive-sales (units>0) rows only (raw-scanner style). Stores carry a permanent SUBSET of the 40-SKU catalog; public carriage := >=1 positive train-window row for a (product, store) pair. The per-(product,store) stocking matrix is a HIDDEN artifact (hidden/stocking_matrix_hidden.csv), never a public matrix — absence of rows is the only public carriage signal.
+- Product metadata: structured attributes, family-level product text, and image specs/paths for complex cells; compact structured attributes only for simple cells.
+- Public store information: anonymized store IDs only.
+- Public instrument-like variable: supply-cost proxy in the transaction/context rows.
+- Demand framing: log-log cells are conditional category demand. covariance-probit cells use a two-stage structural model (incidence + J-only conditional choice; no outside option).
+
+## Hidden Data
+
+Hidden files contain true DGP parameters, latent shocks, hidden product distance and cross-price matrices, hidden store covariates, the permanent per-(product,store) stocking matrix, IRI calibration quantities, and counterfactual truth.
+
+## Calibration Snapshot
+
+- Zero-sales rate (legacy balanced-grid reference — NOT the released public file, which is positive-rows-only; released realism is characterized by per-store carriage + within-active intermittency): IRI 0.353, synthetic 0.349.
+- Promo rate: IRI 0.368, synthetic 0.256.
+- Median unit price: IRI 0.990, synthetic 1.490.

dev/simple_covariance_probit_exogenous_seed001/release/MANIFEST.json

@@ -0,0 +1,68 @@
+{
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-18T05:46:44.847353+00:00",
+  "benchmark": "CARD (Causal Recovery of Demand)",
+  "active_cell": {
+    "model_family": "covariance_probit",
+    "endogeneity": "off",
+    "market_complexity": "simple",
+    "seed": 1
+  },
+  "role": "dev (scoring truth included)",
+  "files": [
+    {
+      "path": "hidden/counterfactual_sweep_truth_hidden.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 1732317,
+      "sha256": "c2044eee276ae11a341ad48e50a2d1cfb271faab9c5ad736782a3323ece96e4e"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "hidden/elasticity_truth_hidden.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 571,
+      "sha256": "c3825f33a3383a216f48c0387d5b2fdf12eb0ae5d6e9ed59771d9906dbbca535"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "hidden/transactions_full_hidden.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 254339,
+      "sha256": "e22b42f5887347e9ba5a56c3c3243f02cedacb471a991bbc546925f6a37d2408"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "public/counterfactual_sweep_context_public.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 571708,
+      "sha256": "ce922cf2402e78eea15a3e059f1ed49d6e5d02a2e1714a80242aa1073937ddf0"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "public/products_public.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 62,
+      "sha256": "cd423c765d06b1fdd4980dc7851200566fddede19456e1b8114cde90f274b6aa"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "public/stores_public.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 344,
+      "sha256": "02b0bb013ff9177685df4345eeb2b0112857212f4db5890afa730f0a900abb4d"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "public/transactions_holdout_context_public.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 20311,
+      "sha256": "8bb91277b0d23c5a41990a1214d0f512c5de5ee29df39eb0cb3aae1459c5b1f8"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "public/transactions_train_public.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 153619,
+      "sha256": "8495f9368e5b708a4bc8933eb9d2dd71b638cd121bbca76a25d50fb337c1826e"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "release/DATASHEET.md",
+      "size_bytes": 1703,
+      "sha256": "48e74d002be17cb87944d61e43f9c62a4ab77bfcf42357badb7d3ec8dfe410f3"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "release/release_notes.md",
+      "size_bytes": 2120,
+      "sha256": "4e0099e37e4bcbe4b9bfdc80241568b27647cc7819d11a57bfe55667ab737062"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "release/scoring_params.json",
+      "size_bytes": 288,
+      "sha256": "1edd33013bd60d114adf7c0b25c30f7e755bd342808c113f226d710b063edb8d"
+    }
+  ]
+}

dev/simple_covariance_probit_exogenous_seed001/release/release_notes.md

@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
+# Causal Demand Benchmark First Pipeline Run
+
+This release folder contains the public-facing files for one benchmark cell:
+simple market, covariance_probit DGP, endogeneity off, seed 001.
+
+## Files
+
+- `public/products_public.csv`: public SKU metadata, family-level text, structured attributes, and image specs.
+- `public/transactions_train_public.csv`: positive-sales (units>0) SKU-store-week transaction rows with anonymized store IDs and public supply-cost proxy. Stores carry a permanent subset of the 40-SKU catalog; carriage is inferable from row presence (>=1 positive train-window row) but is NOT released as an explicit matrix.
+- `public/counterfactual_context_public.csv`: price-policy intervention context.
+
+Hidden DGP parameters, store covariates, calibration quantities, and counterfactual truth are intentionally outside this public release folder.
+
+covariance_probit cells use a two-stage structural model: (1) a purchase-incidence model sets the total category demand per (store, week) via `market_size_st = M_0 * Total_Households[s] * seasonality_t * exp(rho*CV_st) * exp(lambda*G_mt + eps)`, where CV_st = log sum_j exp(Vbar_jst) is the category value (inclusive value of the same brand-choice utilities; Bucklin & Gupta 1992), calibrated against total IRI units; (2) conditional choice is J-only over the J inside products (no outside option). The exogenous inputs `public/households_public.csv` and `public/seasonality_index_public.csv` are released; the realized market-size proxy is retired (option A) so the hidden price response cannot be divided out.
+Simple cells intentionally omit product text and images.
+
+## Selection
+
+- SKU count: 3
+- SKU cumulative IRI revenue share: 0.1369
+- Synthetic stores: 12
+- Synthetic weeks: 156
+
+
+## CARD packaging (v0.1)
+
+- Two legacy counterfactual context files (DGP-construction fixtures the scorer ignores) are not included in this release.
+- `stores_public.market` and `products_public.brand_code` are pseudonymized (consistent across cells and future seeds).
+- `release/scoring_params.json` carries the scoring config (family, eval-window length, version).

dev/simple_covariance_probit_exogenous_seed001/release/scoring_params.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "benchmark_version": "9f30910+djk.a5ec4c8a",
+  "benchmark_family": {
+    "active_cell": {
+      "model_family": "covariance_probit",
+      "endogeneity": "off",
+      "market_complexity": "simple",
+      "seed": 1
+    }
+  },
+  "simulation": {
+    "counterfactual_eval_weeks": 16
+  }
+}

dev/simple_log_log_endogenous_seed001/hidden/elasticity_truth_hidden.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,10 @@
+priced_product_id,affected_product_id,epsilon_star,epsilon_star_conditional,support
+P001,P001,-1.805641367513089,-1.805641367513089,True
+P002,P001,0.07963433814073273,0.07963433814073273,True
+P003,P001,0.04976403245404715,0.04976403245404715,True
+P001,P002,0.10951356174113691,0.10951356174113691,True
+P002,P002,-1.450892091502587,-1.450892091502587,True
+P003,P002,0.09955282949736244,0.09955282949736244,True
+P001,P003,0.039809245190358666,0.039809245190358666,True
+P002,P003,0.06967657883065748,0.06967657883065748,True
+P003,P003,-1.461975874796595,-1.461975874796595,True

dev/simple_log_log_endogenous_seed001/public/products_public.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
+product_id,product_text,brand_code
+P001,,B8
+P002,,B7
+P003,,B8

dev/simple_log_log_endogenous_seed001/public/stores_public.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+store_id,market,chain,household_count
+S0001,M19,Chain118,4070.0
+S0002,M19,Chain132,221.0
+S0003,M19,Chain123,3894.0
+S0004,M24,Chain132,1559.0
+S0005,M19,Chain118,1624.0
+S0006,M19,Chain132,524.0
+S0007,M19,Chain132,446.0
+S0008,M19,Chain132,489.0
+S0009,M02,Chain118,1236.0
+S0010,M24,Chain132,372.0
+S0011,M24,Chain132,2874.0
+S0012,M24,Chain118,528.0

dev/simple_log_log_endogenous_seed001/public/transactions_holdout_context_public.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,577 @@
+product_id,store_id,week,price,promo_flag,promo_cost,supply_cost_proxy
+P001,S0001,1567,2.09,0,0.0,1.1424
+P002,S0001,1567,1.29,0,0.0,0.6825
+P003,S0001,1567,1.69,0,0.0,0.9847
+P001,S0002,1567,1.59,0,0.0,0.9378
+P002,S0002,1567,1.19,0,0.0,0.6354
+P003,S0002,1567,1.99,0,0.0,1.1212
+P001,S0003,1567,1.79,0,0.0,1.0159
+P002,S0003,1567,0.89,0,0.0,0.5137
+P003,S0003,1567,1.89,0,0.0,1.0869
+P001,S0004,1567,1.69,0,0.0,0.9918
+P002,S0004,1567,0.99,0,0.0,0.61
+P003,S0004,1567,1.79,0,0.0,1.0082
+P001,S0005,1567,1.79,0,0.0,0.9738
+P002,S0005,1567,0.69,0,0.0,0.4627
+P003,S0005,1567,1.89,0,0.0,1.029
+P001,S0006,1567,1.69,0,0.0,1.0077
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+P003,S0007,1567,1.89,0,0.0,1.0634
+P001,S0008,1567,2.19,0,0.0,1.186
+P002,S0008,1567,0.99,0,0.0,0.6522
+P003,S0008,1567,1.99,0,0.0,1.0955
+P001,S0009,1567,1.79,0,0.0,1.0465
+P002,S0009,1567,0.89,0,0.0,0.4741
+P003,S0009,1567,1.59,0,0.0,0.8721
+P001,S0010,1567,2.09,0,0.0,1.1678
+P002,S0010,1567,0.99,0,0.0,0.5333
+P003,S0010,1567,1.89,0,0.0,1.0466
+P001,S0011,1567,1.89,0,0.0,1.0116
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+P001,S0001,1568,2.09,0,0.0,1.1424
+P002,S0001,1568,1.29,0,0.0,0.6825
+P003,S0001,1568,1.69,0,0.0,0.9847
+P001,S0002,1568,1.59,0,0.0,0.9378
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+P003,S0004,1568,1.79,0,0.0,1.0082
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dev/simple_log_log_endogenous_seed001/release/DATASHEET.md

@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+# Datasheet
+
+## Motivation
+
+This benchmark studies counterfactual price-policy demand prediction when observed prices and promotions are endogenous.
+
+## Composition
+
+- Category: facial tissue.
+- Transaction unit: aggregate SKU-store-week, released as positive-sales (units>0) rows only (raw-scanner style). Stores carry a permanent SUBSET of the 40-SKU catalog; public carriage := >=1 positive train-window row for a (product, store) pair. The per-(product,store) stocking matrix is a HIDDEN artifact (hidden/stocking_matrix_hidden.csv), never a public matrix — absence of rows is the only public carriage signal.
+- Product metadata: structured attributes, family-level product text, and image specs/paths for complex cells; compact structured attributes only for simple cells.
+- Public store information: anonymized store IDs only.
+- Public instrument-like variable: supply-cost proxy in the transaction/context rows.
+- Demand framing: log-log cells are conditional category demand. covariance-probit cells use a two-stage structural model (incidence + J-only conditional choice; no outside option).
+
+## Hidden Data
+
+Hidden files contain true DGP parameters, latent shocks, hidden product distance and cross-price matrices, hidden store covariates, the permanent per-(product,store) stocking matrix, IRI calibration quantities, and counterfactual truth.
+
+## Calibration Snapshot
+
+- Zero-sales rate (legacy balanced-grid reference — NOT the released public file, which is positive-rows-only; released realism is characterized by per-store carriage + within-active intermittency): IRI 0.353, synthetic 0.367.
+- Promo rate: IRI 0.368, synthetic 0.280.
+- Median unit price: IRI 1.021, synthetic 1.590.

dev/simple_log_log_endogenous_seed001/release/MANIFEST.json

@@ -0,0 +1,68 @@
+{
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-18T05:46:44.854827+00:00",
+  "benchmark": "CARD (Causal Recovery of Demand)",
+  "active_cell": {
+    "model_family": "log_log",
+    "endogeneity": "on",
+    "market_complexity": "simple",
+    "seed": 1
+  },
+  "role": "dev (scoring truth included)",
+  "files": [
+    {
+      "path": "hidden/counterfactual_sweep_truth_hidden.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 1331665,
+      "sha256": "3689341b495fc878ea4795f8499147b4c510de7d5c07a7a481f8e6d73cec3a18"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "hidden/elasticity_truth_hidden.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 575,
+      "sha256": "b4b6ee35bd8ea7cfe1e379f41be0be94227edd9d24108667797de5f259079d2a"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "hidden/transactions_full_hidden.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 249240,
+      "sha256": "b3b4be8359f40e1964255d91f0badf64fe52ef5537114a955286b7e3af397b50"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "public/counterfactual_sweep_context_public.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 569997,
+      "sha256": "3bdc27d281edbf62755410aa2a1864b620dbb4926e19032f6fc28c2e3fe1b0d0"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "public/products_public.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 62,
+      "sha256": "cd423c765d06b1fdd4980dc7851200566fddede19456e1b8114cde90f274b6aa"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "public/stores_public.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 344,
+      "sha256": "02b0bb013ff9177685df4345eeb2b0112857212f4db5890afa730f0a900abb4d"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "public/transactions_holdout_context_public.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 20177,
+      "sha256": "1a05f5e2aa7959542bda3cd9d5a61e56553377517bd510d869c6468cb65ec051"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "public/transactions_train_public.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 143608,
+      "sha256": "9660f339f0e2d62e583f1887245039291fb4e03373ca1a18d75f4f1897744e9b"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "release/DATASHEET.md",
+      "size_bytes": 1703,
+      "sha256": "dff78348a6bc91ac5b959d247b0912ad727c9b2eaee6312149f49c1c7b5582f3"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "release/release_notes.md",
+      "size_bytes": 1482,
+      "sha256": "dde67687f4b98927a6c133d6df7c71818c898961a46329002e30826dae5a719b"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "release/scoring_params.json",
+      "size_bytes": 277,
+      "sha256": "5b752a102f6783e3143cc27830b5a598be94f246e0e29e71907d35a9cd06f865"
+    }
+  ]
+}

dev/simple_log_log_endogenous_seed001/release/release_notes.md

@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
+# Causal Demand Benchmark First Pipeline Run
+
+This release folder contains the public-facing files for one benchmark cell:
+simple market, log_log DGP, endogeneity on, seed 001.
+
+## Files
+
+- `public/products_public.csv`: public SKU metadata, family-level text, structured attributes, and image specs.
+- `public/transactions_train_public.csv`: positive-sales (units>0) SKU-store-week transaction rows with anonymized store IDs and public supply-cost proxy. Stores carry a permanent subset of the 40-SKU catalog; carriage is inferable from row presence (>=1 positive train-window row) but is NOT released as an explicit matrix.
+- `public/counterfactual_context_public.csv`: price-policy intervention context.
+
+Hidden DGP parameters, store covariates, calibration quantities, and counterfactual truth are intentionally outside this public release folder.
+
+Log-log cells are conditional category-demand tasks; no outside option is simulated.
+Simple cells intentionally omit product text and images.
+
+## Selection
+
+- SKU count: 3
+- SKU cumulative IRI revenue share: 0.1369
+- Synthetic stores: 12
+- Synthetic weeks: 156
+
+
+## CARD packaging (v0.1)
+
+- Two legacy counterfactual context files (DGP-construction fixtures the scorer ignores) are not included in this release.
+- `stores_public.market` and `products_public.brand_code` are pseudonymized (consistent across cells and future seeds).
+- `release/scoring_params.json` carries the scoring config (family, eval-window length, version).

dev/simple_log_log_endogenous_seed001/release/scoring_params.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "benchmark_version": "9f30910+djk.a5ec4c8a",
+  "benchmark_family": {
+    "active_cell": {
+      "model_family": "log_log",
+      "endogeneity": "on",
+      "market_complexity": "simple",
+      "seed": 1
+    }
+  },
+  "simulation": {
+    "counterfactual_eval_weeks": 16
+  }
+}

dev/simple_log_log_exogenous_seed001/hidden/elasticity_truth_hidden.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,10 @@
+priced_product_id,affected_product_id,epsilon_star,epsilon_star_conditional,support
+P001,P001,-1.805641367513089,-1.805641367513089,True
+P002,P001,0.07963433814073273,0.07963433814073273,True
+P003,P001,0.04976403245404715,0.04976403245404715,True
+P001,P002,0.10951356174113691,0.10951356174113691,True
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dev/simple_log_log_exogenous_seed001/public/products_public.csv

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dev/simple_log_log_exogenous_seed001/release/DATASHEET.md

@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+# Datasheet
+
+## Motivation
+
+This benchmark studies counterfactual price-policy demand prediction when observed prices and promotions are endogenous.
+
+## Composition
+
+- Category: facial tissue.
+- Transaction unit: aggregate SKU-store-week, released as positive-sales (units>0) rows only (raw-scanner style). Stores carry a permanent SUBSET of the 40-SKU catalog; public carriage := >=1 positive train-window row for a (product, store) pair. The per-(product,store) stocking matrix is a HIDDEN artifact (hidden/stocking_matrix_hidden.csv), never a public matrix — absence of rows is the only public carriage signal.
+- Product metadata: structured attributes, family-level product text, and image specs/paths for complex cells; compact structured attributes only for simple cells.
+- Public store information: anonymized store IDs only.
+- Public instrument-like variable: supply-cost proxy in the transaction/context rows.
+- Demand framing: log-log cells are conditional category demand. covariance-probit cells use a two-stage structural model (incidence + J-only conditional choice; no outside option).
+
+## Hidden Data
+
+Hidden files contain true DGP parameters, latent shocks, hidden product distance and cross-price matrices, hidden store covariates, the permanent per-(product,store) stocking matrix, IRI calibration quantities, and counterfactual truth.
+
+## Calibration Snapshot
+
+- Zero-sales rate (legacy balanced-grid reference — NOT the released public file, which is positive-rows-only; released realism is characterized by per-store carriage + within-active intermittency): IRI 0.353, synthetic 0.367.
+- Promo rate: IRI 0.368, synthetic 0.281.
+- Median unit price: IRI 1.021, synthetic 1.590.

dev/simple_log_log_exogenous_seed001/release/MANIFEST.json

@@ -0,0 +1,68 @@
+{
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-18T05:46:44.862096+00:00",
+  "benchmark": "CARD (Causal Recovery of Demand)",
+  "active_cell": {
+    "model_family": "log_log",
+    "endogeneity": "off",
+    "market_complexity": "simple",
+    "seed": 1
+  },
+  "role": "dev (scoring truth included)",
+  "files": [
+    {
+      "path": "hidden/counterfactual_sweep_truth_hidden.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 1331353,
+      "sha256": "30da9784b79791919d46c5fb52bc2b1120399bc8adf57d0a39a211ef2807eb6f"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "hidden/elasticity_truth_hidden.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 575,
+      "sha256": "b4b6ee35bd8ea7cfe1e379f41be0be94227edd9d24108667797de5f259079d2a"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "hidden/transactions_full_hidden.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 249229,
+      "sha256": "4e34670d1e4c31f6dc92051c8a98162b886e092029684554694b97f68ff0a62f"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "public/counterfactual_sweep_context_public.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 570000,
+      "sha256": "d483d7552c48c6dbcbea19201deab5a71ea16e8404f78ce5daf8f49bbc007ea5"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "public/products_public.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 62,
+      "sha256": "cd423c765d06b1fdd4980dc7851200566fddede19456e1b8114cde90f274b6aa"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "public/stores_public.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 344,
+      "sha256": "02b0bb013ff9177685df4345eeb2b0112857212f4db5890afa730f0a900abb4d"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "public/transactions_holdout_context_public.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 20177,
+      "sha256": "697b4dd7810b9f8f63f9fa3a59ce4b611637242f45cd86096e2c29c4a030299c"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "public/transactions_train_public.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 143396,
+      "sha256": "5f48e4c28d3579990bb39dc9ed6274568af3001490d84385e54c49081e5ceed6"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "release/DATASHEET.md",
+      "size_bytes": 1703,
+      "sha256": "10bf88c7ca6fec0fa3d1c9daa2e255ae8339a8c63b4dbf0b0b1fe73944ec5689"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "release/release_notes.md",
+      "size_bytes": 1483,
+      "sha256": "7f5c31e0a7ab9777496f06ad7a7435531be52422e03c4b39411a9ac7de7ed5ef"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "release/scoring_params.json",
+      "size_bytes": 278,
+      "sha256": "4d671fa8406c45d4c363d70b6d70ca936b7e7521a39e4073a693bc4a720c0c89"
+    }
+  ]
+}

dev/simple_log_log_exogenous_seed001/release/release_notes.md

@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
+# Causal Demand Benchmark First Pipeline Run
+
+This release folder contains the public-facing files for one benchmark cell:
+simple market, log_log DGP, endogeneity off, seed 001.
+
+## Files
+
+- `public/products_public.csv`: public SKU metadata, family-level text, structured attributes, and image specs.
+- `public/transactions_train_public.csv`: positive-sales (units>0) SKU-store-week transaction rows with anonymized store IDs and public supply-cost proxy. Stores carry a permanent subset of the 40-SKU catalog; carriage is inferable from row presence (>=1 positive train-window row) but is NOT released as an explicit matrix.
+- `public/counterfactual_context_public.csv`: price-policy intervention context.
+
+Hidden DGP parameters, store covariates, calibration quantities, and counterfactual truth are intentionally outside this public release folder.
+
+Log-log cells are conditional category-demand tasks; no outside option is simulated.
+Simple cells intentionally omit product text and images.
+
+## Selection
+
+- SKU count: 3
+- SKU cumulative IRI revenue share: 0.1369
+- Synthetic stores: 12
+- Synthetic weeks: 156
+
+
+## CARD packaging (v0.1)
+
+- Two legacy counterfactual context files (DGP-construction fixtures the scorer ignores) are not included in this release.
+- `stores_public.market` and `products_public.brand_code` are pseudonymized (consistent across cells and future seeds).
+- `release/scoring_params.json` carries the scoring config (family, eval-window length, version).

dev/simple_log_log_exogenous_seed001/release/scoring_params.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "benchmark_version": "9f30910+djk.a5ec4c8a",
+  "benchmark_family": {
+    "active_cell": {
+      "model_family": "log_log",
+      "endogeneity": "off",
+      "market_complexity": "simple",
+      "seed": 1
+    }
+  },
+  "simulation": {
+    "counterfactual_eval_weeks": 16
+  }
+}