Add files using upload-large-folder tool

dev/complex_log_log_exogenous_seed001/hidden/elasticity_truth_hidden.csv

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dev/complex_log_log_exogenous_seed001/release/DATASHEET.md

@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+# Datasheet
+
+## Motivation
+
+This benchmark studies counterfactual price-policy demand prediction when observed prices and promotions are endogenous.
+
+## Composition
+
+- Category: facial tissue.
+- Transaction unit: aggregate SKU-store-week, released as positive-sales (units>0) rows only (raw-scanner style). Stores carry a permanent SUBSET of the 40-SKU catalog; public carriage := >=1 positive train-window row for a (product, store) pair. The per-(product,store) stocking matrix is a HIDDEN artifact (hidden/stocking_matrix_hidden.csv), never a public matrix — absence of rows is the only public carriage signal.
+- Product metadata: `products_public.csv` carries `product_id`, `product_text` (marketing-copy description; empty in simple cells), and a pseudonymized `brand_code`.
+- Public store information: `stores_public.csv` carries `store_id` plus pseudonymized `market` and `chain` identifiers; store demographics are withheld.
+- Public instrument-like variable: supply-cost proxy in the transaction/context rows.
+- Demand framing: log-log cells are conditional category demand. covariance-probit cells use a two-stage structural model (incidence + J-only conditional choice; no outside option).
+
+## Hidden Data
+
+Hidden files contain true DGP parameters, latent shocks, hidden product distance and cross-price matrices, hidden store covariates, the permanent per-(product,store) stocking matrix, IRI calibration quantities, and counterfactual truth.
+
+## Calibration Snapshot
+
+- Zero-sales rate (legacy balanced-grid reference — NOT the released public file, which is positive-rows-only; released realism is characterized by per-store carriage + within-active intermittency): IRI 0.889, synthetic 0.431.
+- Promo rate: IRI 0.268, synthetic 0.229.
+- Median unit price: IRI 1.990, synthetic 1.790.

dev/complex_log_log_exogenous_seed001/release/MANIFEST.json

@@ -0,0 +1,68 @@
+{
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-22T18:43:16.338976+00:00",
+  "benchmark": "CARD (Causal Recovery of Demand)",
+  "active_cell": {
+    "model_family": "log_log",
+    "endogeneity": "off",
+    "market_complexity": "complex",
+    "seed": 1
+  },
+  "role": "dev (scoring truth included)",
+  "files": [
+    {
+      "path": "hidden/counterfactual_sweep_truth_hidden.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 649329826,
+      "sha256": "969cdd846125cfb4b661d3aeb326e41abfd41454b312e6870bb160b8ef23ae6d"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "hidden/elasticity_truth_hidden.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 88966,
+      "sha256": "e2ae3297f8d06f94302a8bc08c9a68012cdfd861e94df2e4c168f268c6d47a7f"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "hidden/transactions_full_hidden.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 146682665,
+      "sha256": "7c22116d61f876d514836d7c8b0cbffdb8f868cad62ccb60de112a5c977b4799"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "public/counterfactual_sweep_context_public.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 296195908,
+      "sha256": "9d6be216670059350c0a05fd8da4579b361ea6b80fbc64efa6c3e6278fbc7367"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "public/products_public.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 9096,
+      "sha256": "95fecebbe255d977e362bde7be24d934857fccd2f7375a1390c7a5aa83a5e8b2"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "public/stores_public.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 13354,
+      "sha256": "3ea686b6044a799b46c00251742c019c0a8568a5d50e3ddb2a302adb48a97ad3"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "public/transactions_holdout_context_public.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 10472015,
+      "sha256": "8f82d2d6a0c86753235e78df78c8e4f847d1f6403eeb2687658ed3bcbc2ac62b"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "public/transactions_train_public.csv",
+      "size_bytes": 105040390,
+      "sha256": "69a06cebb8e05b119bab8a11634001c0e0d0d730d3fcb8f26c86d58f188f1521"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "release/DATASHEET.md",
+      "size_bytes": 1803,
+      "sha256": "681d487c8c4240717589e15513ef482642019827fb601e03b9854a891f1b4a06"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "release/release_notes.md",
+      "size_bytes": 1666,
+      "sha256": "1ec534cd43c262d648c729b6802aa9eccf42d492bcd564f3e598ad8ac0764605"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "release/scoring_params.json",
+      "size_bytes": 279,
+      "sha256": "46bbccc1e32f09585dc7516905dbb8f76bd4d1d56d54dc517d230343d8c4df2c"
+    }
+  ]
+}

dev/complex_log_log_exogenous_seed001/release/release_notes.md

@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
+# Causal Demand Benchmark First Pipeline Run
+
+This release folder contains the public-facing files for one benchmark cell:
+complex market, log_log DGP, endogeneity off, seed 001.
+
+## Files
+
+- `public/products_public.csv`: public SKU metadata, family-level text, structured attributes, and image specs.
+- `public/transactions_train_public.csv`: positive-sales (units>0) SKU-store-week transaction rows with anonymized store IDs and public supply-cost proxy. Stores carry a permanent subset of the 40-SKU catalog; carriage is inferable from row presence (>=1 positive train-window row) but is NOT released as an explicit matrix.
+- `public/counterfactual_context_public.csv`: price-policy intervention context.
+
+Hidden DGP parameters, store covariates, calibration quantities, and counterfactual truth are intentionally outside this public release folder.
+
+Log-log cells are conditional category-demand tasks; no outside option is simulated.
+Complex cells include rendered package-style PNG images under `public/images/`.
+
+## Selection
+
+- SKU count: 40
+- SKU cumulative IRI revenue share: 0.8017
+- Synthetic stores: 731
+- Synthetic weeks: 156
+
+
+## CARD packaging (v0.1)
+
+- Two legacy counterfactual context files (DGP-construction fixtures the scorer ignores) are not included in this release.
+- `stores_public.market` and `products_public.brand_code` are pseudonymized (consistent across cells and future seeds).
+- `stores_public.household_count` is withheld (store demographics stay with the hidden store covariates); store scale is inferable only from the sales rows.
+- `release/scoring_params.json` carries the scoring config (family, eval-window length, version).

dev/complex_log_log_exogenous_seed001/release/scoring_params.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "benchmark_version": "9f30910+djk.a5ec4c8a",
+  "benchmark_family": {
+    "active_cell": {
+      "model_family": "log_log",
+      "endogeneity": "off",
+      "market_complexity": "complex",
+      "seed": 1
+    }
+  },
+  "simulation": {
+    "counterfactual_eval_weeks": 16
+  }
+}

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dev_mini/complex_log_log_endogenous_seed001/release/MANIFEST.json

@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+{
+  "public/transactions_train_public.csv": "e6c0069ab1806e18f57cfb02d68bc751e2f53331fcb3e0b6da2dcd0695fbb3e7",
+  "public/transactions_holdout_context_public.csv": "cab35054710bd89c06698deb176a87f6c216e3291822f51488526fae4602bee9",
+  "public/counterfactual_sweep_context_public.csv": "bdf4fced8e493f04a5e2968fc733a57ab4a942bfc23537b7e31eca4a832b2187",
+  "public/stores_public.csv": "e304faa7ef0fbc6b86b7e97b3469b76fe78b1aae02cc0ceda47eb0c5c5444dc1",
+  "hidden/transactions_full_hidden.csv": "650385a21c1660131cb2ced8c2be4b280ca7b77bf82ea04c68b5ba16adeae8eb",
+  "hidden/counterfactual_sweep_truth_hidden.csv": "700dd81bd49a552d355833b17bac95363820fca0ad465d922d547f7b9b4236af",
+  "public/products_public.csv": "95fecebbe255d977e362bde7be24d934857fccd2f7375a1390c7a5aa83a5e8b2",
+  "hidden/elasticity_truth_hidden.csv": "e2ae3297f8d06f94302a8bc08c9a68012cdfd861e94df2e4c168f268c6d47a7f",
+  "release/scoring_params.json": "6355ae8f3ce499fe29f629f59a7a538d804b4dacf3be9871473b6237e2b3b888"
+}

dev_mini/complex_log_log_endogenous_seed001/release/release_notes.md

@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
+# Mini slice of complex_log_log_endogenous_seed001
+
+Top 10 stores by training-window volume; every product, week, and
+intervention retained. Built by scripts/make_mini_cell.py from the full dev
+cell. For quickstarts and notebooks only — leaderboard scoring uses the full
+cell.
+
+Stores: S0168, S0316, S0058, S0692, S0066, S0410, S0001, S0071, S0236, S0126

dev_mini/complex_log_log_endogenous_seed001/release/scoring_params.json

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+{
+  "benchmark_version": "9f30910+djk.a5ec4c8a",
+  "benchmark_family": {
+    "active_cell": {
+      "model_family": "log_log",
+      "endogeneity": "on",
+      "market_complexity": "complex",
+      "seed": 1
+    }
+  },
+  "simulation": {
+    "counterfactual_eval_weeks": 16
+  }
+}

reference/no_iv_no_text/complex_covariance_probit_endogenous_seed001/elasticity_matrix.csv

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reference/no_iv_no_text/complex_covariance_probit_endogenous_seed001/reference_fit_meta.json

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reference/no_iv_no_text/complex_log_log_exogenous_seed001/reference_fit_meta.json

@@ -0,0 +1,10 @@
+{
+  "variant": "no_iv_no_text",
+  "family": "log_log",
+  "cell": "complex_log_log_exogenous_seed001",
+  "axes": {
+    "use_iv": false,
+    "use_text": false
+  },
+  "fit_seconds": 399.11
+}