,Unnamed: 0,unique_id,speaker,sentence,utterance,-5 sentences,-200+ tokens,1_opinion,2_mp,3_mp_context,4_stance_nli,5_stance_nli_context
0,0,19811222_189_9,MR. TRUMAN.,"""I might comment that Japan in particular seems to be a serious problem.""","The picture is broadly similar to what we have seen here in the sense that the economies abroad have been growing, although it has been small positive growth. It has been quite modest on average over the last several quarters. There have been some signs of a bottoming out: There were increases in the United Kingdom after a very sharp decline; and the German GNP number that came in for the third quarter, just released today finally on a seasonally adjusted basis that one could understand, shows essentially zero growth rather than negative [as it was] in the second quarter. So, there are some signs of a bottoming out, though I think we have marked down the extent to which we see real positive growth in this quarter. We expect at best only a modest rate of acceleration in the course of 1982, reaching something on the order of 2-1/2 percent on average as I recall for the last half of 1982. That is hardly a very robust performance, when you factor in Japan, which in the past, even in the first oil-shock environment, has had a fairly good growth rate relative to the rest of us. Generally speaking, unemployment is expected to continue to rise abroad; and there may be some improvement--maybe a percentage point or a little more--on the price side but not any rapid expansion. One place where we have seen some shift in policies, or at least in that direction relative to everybody else, is France, where a somewhat rapid pickup is expected in both prices and real growth. I might comment that Japan in particular seems to be a serious problem. They had about 4 percent growth this year, which looks good from our perspective, but even the official authorities are not looking for too much next year, which clearly is one of the things that is causing the problem on the external side, the current account side. They just have very weak domestic demands, and that combined with the decline in international commodity prices--imports are weighted in that direction --is part of the reason why the number on their current account position looks so astronomical. Although that might moderate somewhat, it is likely to stay up in that range unless Japan experiences a dramatic rebound, which no one at the moment is particularly projecting.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't want to [catch] you unawares, Mr. Truman, but it might be appropriate for you to say just a word about what is going on abroad. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'Okay. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'To give you a little more time, would you like to have a filibuster? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'Do you need your pipe? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'You just let the cat out of the bag, Henry! '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'We were talking about that this morning, and I would be inclined to think that there might be a little larger decline and perhaps a good deal larger decline than the staff has in its forecast.But again, for every inch that you give there, the less pressure there is on financial markets and money markets.And it seems to me that we can almost, with a little lag, get a substitution of housing for plant and equipment if in fact we get that much weakness in the system.Also, this Christmas of 1981 is not good but, on the other hand, it is not just abysmal.Let us not be too gloomy; we ought to get a recovery, I think, sometime in 1982.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't want to [catch] you unawares, Mr. Truman, but it might be appropriate for you to say just a word about what is going on abroad.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'Okay.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'To give you a little more time, would you like to have a filibuster?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'Do you need your pipe?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'You just let the cat out of the bag, Henry!'}]",yes,no,,,
1,1,19911001_128_5,MR. KELLEY.,"""But I think the staff and everyone else would agree that the question is very much outstanding.""","Mr. Chairman, it seems to me that what we've all been talking about this morning and what is at the front of all our minds is a very straightforward question with a very ambiguous answer. Is this economy faltering or is it going to falter? If we knew the answer to that question, we'd have a pretty good idea of what to do about policy. The staff forecast is that it's not faltering and is not going to. But I think the staff and everyone else would agree that the question is very much outstanding. I would certainly concur with those who say--and I've said here before--that the consequences of a falter are very severe. And we have to keep that very much in mind and be very concerned about it. But it seems to me as we ponder policy right now that we have to keep in mind the fact that we have a good deal more stimulus coming from what has already been done. Staff studies have indicated that the stimulus that we're going to get from easing actions to date is going to peak in late '91 and the first half of '92. The major part of it is still ahead of us. We all know how much rates have come down. Wayne Angell mentioned 450 plus basis points in the last 28 months. The aggregates may be beginning to move; it is very tentative yet. But I think one can make the case perhaps for this sticker shock and that the portfolio shifts are beginning to abate and may be in the course of beginning to move a little, which will help the aggregates. We just had a drop in the prime rate. Mortgages just went under 9 percent for the first time in a long time. Yields on long-term Treasury securities just went under 8 percent. There's some help still on the way. It seems to me that policy help right now, to the extent that it can be provided and is needed for the economy, may be to reinforce the downward trend in long rates. We have an incipient view now that inflation is going to improve, and we need to encourage that. It seems to me that the best way to do that would be to try to see if we can't hold short rates for the moment.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""I just don't think we'd be good enough to cash in that insurance, or however you want to describe it, when we need to. And in that connection, I think there's a good deal of monetary stimulus in train, as Wayne pointed out--whether you look at what has happened to interest rates and in particular short-term real interest rates or whether you look, as we would be more inclined to do, at the behavior of narrow money or reserves over a period of time. There's a good deal of stimulus in the pipeline and I don't think it has all shown through. In fact, and this would be my final point, our view is that if we were to continue this rate of narrow money growth for a sustained period of time, we're probably already risking a somewhat higher inflation rate than the 3 to 4 percent that we're talking about achieving in the forecast period down the road. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""So, the concept that we can somehow buy more insurance bothers me.I just don't think we'd be good enough to cash in that insurance, or however you want to describe it, when we need to.And in that connection, I think there's a good deal of monetary stimulus in train, as Wayne pointed out--whether you look at what has happened to interest rates and in particular short-term real interest rates or whether you look, as we would be more inclined to do, at the behavior of narrow money or reserves over a period of time.There's a good deal of stimulus in the pipeline and I don't think it has all shown through.In fact, and this would be my final point, our view is that if we were to continue this rate of narrow money growth for a sustained period of time, we're probably already risking a somewhat higher inflation rate than the 3 to 4 percent that we're talking about achieving in the forecast period down the road.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
2,2,19900327_116_3,MR. SYRON.,"""What would your answer be?""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""We've raised [our forecast of] prices ex food and energy this year; they change Q4 to Q4 by .2 percent, a fairly modest change. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': ""The second question I have is that I'm rather struck by the change in the [unintelligible] of the Greenbook. Over the next two years where you come out at the [end] is not terribly different from what you had last month. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""That's by design of course. I hope everyone-- ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""But the cumulative effect of the last few months of data in this overall category--even though there are special things like transit charges and other items that seem to be one-time events--has been that the trend is a little higher.It just seems to fit with the general circumstances of overall spending being stronger--knowing that that profit margin pressure was there, which businesses presumably would like to relieve to some degree.[Unintelligible] the context of import prices turning upward, thus relieving a bit of the competitive pressure.So it all seems to fit together in this direction.We've raised [our forecast of] prices ex food and energy this year; they change Q4 to Q4 by .2 percent, a fairly modest change.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': ""The second question I have is that I'm rather struck by the change in the [unintelligible] of the Greenbook.Over the next two years where you come out at the [end] is not terribly different from what you had last month.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""That's by design of course.I hope everyone--""}]",no,,,,
3,3,19830713_312_1,MR. MORRIS.,"""The demand for credit is directly related to the level of interest rates.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Lower them. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': ""I don't think you would. ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""I don't think you people know what the relationship of the credit aggregate is to GNP, quite frankly. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'I think we know a lot more about that than we do about the new M2 to GNP. '}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'That may be, but I think we know an awful lot more about [the relationship of] interest rates to GNP than we do anything else. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""Well, I think one has to make a judgment as to whether a 4-1/2 percent real growth rate would be excessive for '84 or whether we should allow perhaps for a little less favorable result on inflation than we're forecasting.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Well, I have a little less favorable forecast and it still works out with a point reduction in the credit growth.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'If the exercise is cosmetic, basically, I think a half point is as good as a point.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Well, a point would change it from cosmetics to real policy.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""What do you propose to do with that credit aggregate if it doesn't fall within the range?What action would that trigger?MESSRS.PARTEE and MORRIS.A change in interest rates.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""I'd put it down to [unintelligible]; suppose it falls at the bottom annually.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Lower them.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': ""I don't think you would.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""I don't think you people know what the relationship of the credit aggregate is to GNP, quite frankly.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'I think we know a lot more about that than we do about the new M2 to GNP.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'That may be, but I think we know an awful lot more about [the relationship of] interest rates to GNP than we do anything else.'}]",no,,,,
4,4,19830329_822_1,MR. GUFFEY.,"""You have discarded the first parenthetical sentence in alternative II and you have tried to incorporate an additional sentence.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'The Committee expects that M1 growth at an annual rate of about 6 to 7 percent would be consistent with its objectives for the broader aggregates. Lesser restraint would be acceptable in the context of more pronounced slowing of growth in the monetary aggregates relative to the paths implied by the long-term ranges (taking account of the distortions relating to the introduction of new accounts), or indications of a weakening in the pace of economic recovery."" And then the last sentence remains as it is. '}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'Would you read the first sentence over again? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': '""For the short run the Committee seeks to maintain generally the existing degree of restraint on reserve positions, anticipating that would be consistent with a slowing from March to June in growth of M2 and M3 to annual rates of about 9 and 8 percent, respectively."" '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Let me just repeat where I am on the language: ""For the short run, the Committee seeks to maintain generally the existing degree of restraint on reserve positions, anticipating that would consistent with a slowing from March to June in growth of M2 and M3 to annual rates of about 9 and 8 percent, respectively.The Committee expects that M1 growth at an annual rate of about 6 to 7 percent would be consistent with its objectives for the broader aggregates.Lesser restraint would be acceptable in the context of more pronounced slowing of growth in the monetary aggregates relative to the paths implied by the long-term ranges (taking account of the distortions relating to the introduction of new accounts), or indications of a weakening in the pace of economic recovery.""And then the last sentence remains as it is.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'Would you read the first sentence over again?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': '""For the short run the Committee seeks to maintain generally the existing degree of restraint on reserve positions, anticipating that would be consistent with a slowing from March to June in growth of M2 and M3 to annual rates of about 9 and 8 percent, respectively.""'}]",no,,,,
5,5,19820518_275_17,MR. PARTEE.,"""So, I would take ""B"" for this time but reserve""","Well, I think we do need to review the long-range targets. A very, very large proportion of the increase in M1 since the beginning of the year has been in NOW accounts. I think it's 85 percent. I had that number someplace but I can't find it now; but it's a very large proportion. That is suggestive of the possibility of a change in precautionary balances that might not continue, but at least we shouldn't try to offset the lower growth rates for something that occurred in the early part of the year and is already water over the dam. I also didn't know that Argentina accounted for million of the money supply increase in April. That takes off a good deal of the strength in currency this year. I thought that April bulge indicated that people were spending. All that increase in currency indicates is that the Argentineans are afraid they might have their money taken away from them. We should make allowance for that kind of thing, and that's going to continue for some time into the future. As far as this meeting is concerned, I'm also attracted to continuing on the target path that we set at the beginning of the quarter, which is alternative B. It calls for an increase in the money supply in June--May is largely over and seems to be minus--of 4.3 percent or thereabouts and continued expansion in M2 throughout the quarter. I'd be most concerned if we didn't get that June increase. Last year we didn't, if you recall; money growth in June was very weak. And we ought to be prepared to move in case weakness develops as we go through the period. So, I would take ""B"" for this time but reserve [my options] on the question of respecifying the aggregates for the year, which we'll be doing at our early July meeting. I rather like Mr. Ford's idea of widening the [funds rate] range. I wouldn't look forward to a 16 percent funds rate; on the other hand, I do think it could drop as low as 10 percent. So, I would widen it just on the lower end and make it 10 to 15 percent; and I'd choose a beginning borrowing number that is somewhat skewed in the direction of encouraging lower rates, which is probably around $700 million. I would agree with you on that, Tom. In sum, I would take $700 million as my initial borrowing figure, 10 to 15 percent for the funds rate range, and the aggregates as specified in alternative B.","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': 'I am concerned that we not go too far beyond ""B"" toward ""A"" because we don\'t yet know what will happen as we get into the second half of the year, and I wouldn\'t want us to give up all our leeway as we look ahead to the second half of the year. My feeling is that we should go generally for ""B"" with a somewhat lower initial borrowing assumption, though not a lot lower than we had last time, and a wider fed funds range--dropping [the lower limit] down to perhaps 10 percent and making the range, say, 10 to 16 percent. That would widen the range to 6 points as we had it some time ago. It would allow for more unusual variability [given] the current conditions that we face with the special situation in the market. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Governor Partee. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': 'And given the uncertainty that we\'re facing presently with the Drysdale situation, I\'d perhaps just widen the band on both ends.I always like to do that.And a borrowing assumption of $800 million to $1 billion, or somewhere in there, sounds reasonable to me.I am concerned that we not go too far beyond ""B"" toward ""A"" because we don\'t yet know what will happen as we get into the second half of the year, and I wouldn\'t want us to give up all our leeway as we look ahead to the second half of the year.My feeling is that we should go generally for ""B"" with a somewhat lower initial borrowing assumption, though not a lot lower than we had last time, and a wider fed funds range--dropping [the lower limit] down to perhaps 10 percent and making the range, say, 10 to 16 percent.That would widen the range to 6 points as we had it some time ago.It would allow for more unusual variability [given] the current conditions that we face with the special situation in the market.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Governor Partee.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
6,6,19890516_298_1,MR. KOHN.,"""Well, I interpreted alternative B as maintaining about the same funds rate level as we've been running over the last intermeeting period.""","Well, I interpreted alternative B as maintaining about the same funds rate level as we've been running over the last intermeeting period. If what you're referencing is what might happen to market rates I agree, as we stated in the Bluebook, that the markets now have an easing built into that. It's quite possible that if the data continue to come in weak the markets will continue to expect an easing and rates may not move very much. But if the data strengthen a little and we don't ease, I think these short-term rates could back up a bit--retracing some, but by no means all, of the decline that occurred over the last intermeeting period. We do have, I think, some sense of a further easing--","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""--in the early part of the maintenance period, which is unusual, and partly it's the seasonal borrowing that's rising. In the past I've argued that the seasonal borrowing doesn't affect things very much but I think the level of adjustment borrowing is so low that the increase in seasonal borrowing is showing through more; it's not covered up by the noise in adjustment borrowing. ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'Do we have an alternative for no change in policy? It seems to me that what we have is: an easing, which is ""A;"" a slight tightening, which is ""B;"" and more tightening, which is ""C."" '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""On the technical adjustment of the borrowing target from $500 to $600 million for alternative B, what do you think the fed funds rate would be if you didn't make that adjustment and you stuck with the $500 million that we currently have?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'I think funds would tend to trade a bit below 9-3/4 percent.Peter?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'Yes, I think the rate would be in the area of 9-3/4 or 9-5/8 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""We're running above $500 million--""}, {'speaker': 'MS.   SEGER.', 'text': 'Sure.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""--in the early part of the maintenance period, which is unusual, and partly it's the seasonal borrowing that's rising.In the past I've argued that the seasonal borrowing doesn't affect things very muchbut I think the level of adjustment borrowing is so low that the increase in seasonal borrowing is showing through more; it's not covered up by the noise in adjustment borrowing.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'Do we have an alternative for no change in policy?It seems to me that what we have is: an easing, which is ""A;"" a slight tightening, which is ""B;"" and more tightening, which is ""C.""'}]",yes,yes,sentence,,
7,7,20070131_392_24,MR. POOLE.,"""With the analysis of why the forecast has moved we could provide some insight into how our thinking has evolved as a consequence of new information.""",,"[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': ""But you're not suggesting that we try to aggregate or ask the staff to aggregate our own uncertainties that we convey with our own individual forecasts, right? ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. YELLEN.', 'text': 'No, I think that would not be a very useful procedure. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': ""There's research at the St. Louis Bank that says that the FOMC forecasts are actually pretty good. Was there another two-hander? President Poole? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': 'I interpret you as saying that you infer a central tendency from this process you outlined.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. YELLEN.', 'text': 'With respect to the story?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': 'You discern a central tendency of the Committee about our view about GDP or unemployment.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. YELLEN.', 'text': ""Well, we're submitting numbers.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': 'Then you attach some other method for framing uncertainty based on past forecast errors--for example, of FRB/US, Greenbook, Blue Chip, or somebody else.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. YELLEN.', 'text': 'Yes, exactly.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'Or our own forecasts.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. YELLEN.', 'text': 'Or our own forecasts.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': ""But, no, it can't be that either.That's a little different, isn't it?""}, {'speaker': 'MS. YELLEN.', 'text': ""We don't forecast the federal funds rate, but we do have data on our own errors with respect to the other variables.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': ""But you're not suggesting that we try to aggregate or ask the staff to aggregate our own uncertainties that we convey with our own individual forecasts, right?""}, {'speaker': 'MS. YELLEN.', 'text': 'No, I think that would not be a very useful procedure.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': ""There's research at the St. Louis Bank that says that the FOMC forecasts are actually pretty good.Was there another two-hander?President Poole?""}]",no,,,,
8,8,19860923_273_5,MS. SEGER.,"""I think the give-back will show up, particularly in the first quarter.""","I have just a couple of comments since I have heard just about everything said that I was going to say. In general, I am probably a hair more pessimistic than the staff, primarily because when I look at the auto industry I just have a feeling that we are going to give back more next year than the staff is assuming. I am impressed with the current sales level--no doubt about that--which, I guess, shows what low interest rates will do and how inattentive a lot of consumers are. But I think that this is not all a net gain. I think the give-back will show up, particularly in the first quarter. Also, I am just very nervous about the impact of tax reform on a whole lot of things, but particularly on business spending on new plant and equipment and on office buildings which, of course, are already under the gun. I think that is just going to provide one more discouraging influence. We have been talking about this trade turnaround for a number of months and expecting that to provide quite a bit of support for the economy, and I certainly hope that happens. But Senator Riegle sent me a little story which, with your permission I would like to tell, because I think it demonstrates how difficult it is to turn off the import competition. This involves one of his constituent companies out in Michigan; they produce Being non-mechanical, I have no idea what those are, by the way, but apparently they are very important in the production of engines. The company supplies parts for about three-fourths of the engines produced in this country and the Japanese had been their primary competition. They have revamped their entire operation, they have spent heavily on R&D and on new equipment, etc., they have gotten wage concessions, and they have tried to imitate the Japanese in the labor-management relationship. They have done remarkably well in dealing with the Japanese [competition] and they are now selling their main part for $5.50. Now, all of a sudden, the Koreans are calling on their major customers in this country and are offering them very similar products at $3.50. This isn't something I picked up; it came from Don Riegle. But I think it is very indicative of how tough this job is going to be, particularly when we haven't seen the dollar deteriorate vis-a-vis the Korean currency. I just hope and pray that we can get some movement in the currencies of these newly industrialized countries, particularly in the Far East, or I don't think we are going to see this big turnaround that we are counting on. Thank you.","[{'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': 'Overall, I think it is a very satisfactory performance with fewer imbalances than we have had in the past. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't know about those wage increases; those wage increases are low but so is productivity. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""Productivity in the service sector is low but I don't think we know how to measure it. Productivity in the goods producing sector remains right at the 3.2 percent level that it has been at for some time. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Seger. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': ""I think our exports won't increase very rapidly but at least the erosion in GNP due to imports will tend to stop.So, overall, the export sector will tilt a bit more in our favor and that also reduces some of those imbalances.On the inflation front, I am amazed by the good news that came in this morning.It is very heartening.And I fully agree with what Wayne was saying about wage increases.When you look at the European wage increases, given the high unemployment rates, it is amazing that they are all running in the 5 percent range--much above the 3 percent range that we heard here in other comments before.Overall, I think it is a very satisfactory performance with fewer imbalances than we have had in the past.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't know about those wage increases; those wage increases are low but so is productivity.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""Productivity in the service sector is low but I don't think we know how to measure it.Productivity in the goods producing sector remains right at the 3.2 percent level that it has been at for some time.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Seger.'}]",yes,no,,,
9,9,19960924_105_7,MR. GUYNN.,"""Our previous forecast plainly suggested the need for such a slowdown.""","Mr. Chairman, I could support a decision not to change policy at this time, and if I had a vote this year, I would vote ""yes."" As Governor Rivlin noted in the earlier go-around, we can take great pride in the low inflation and the strong real activity that we have achieved. At previous meetings, I was among those who argued in favor of letting this thing play out. I think that has been the right thing to do. Having said that, I have come to the view that a modest increase in our fed funds target rate is probably desirable now or sometime soon. In my view, we do need to continue to wonder about whether the hope for a slowdown over the rest of this year and into next year will materialize, at least to the degree that we expect it. Our previous forecast plainly suggested the need for such a slowdown. However, my concern is now rooted in the belief that the rate of growth that we have seen in recent quarters--unless we get a very substantial slowdown--combined with the recent pace of job creation, tight labor markets, and relatively high labor force participation are incompatible with stable inflation over the longer run. This raises a special concern that monetary policy may be accommodating those trends. The current stable inflation performance suggests to me that over the short run, policy may not be too expansionary. Nevertheless, few if any of our forecasts conclude that inflation will moderate under the current policy scenario. Indeed, most forecasts including my own suggest that inflation is most likely to stabilize at its present level or even accelerate slowly. I am convinced that the risks of inflation are now predominantly on the up side. I believe with Tom Melzer that we currently have a unique opportunity to solidify the gains that we have made in recent years on limiting inflation. A growing number of us around this table and others outside the System are coming to the view that the risks of higher inflation, a small uptick at least, have increased. We have a chance to send a very credible and unambiguous signal to the economy and financial markets about our commitment to stem inflation and perhaps to bring it down further over time. The economy's current strength combined with the fact that markets have been expecting a policy adjustment for some time suggest to me that some change could be made at this time or sometime soon without causing either a large deceleration of real economic activity or a disruption to financial markets. Again, while I do not think the timing is critical, I think the time is now or sometime very soon to move against the inflationary uptick that we are seeing. I clearly would prefer an asymmetrical directive if we decide to hold policy steady.","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'I, like President Moskow, was fascinated by the productivity discussion and would like to see that analysis. If I were voting, I would say that I prefer to move now, but I would accept your recommendation. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Phillips. '}, {'speaker': 'MS. PHILLIPS.', 'text': 'I support your recommendation of ""B"" asymmetric. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Guynn. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. RIVLIN.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I strongly support your recommendation both with respect to current monetary policy and with respect to asymmetry.I am intrigued, as others I think are, by your disaggregation of the productivity data because it provides us with at least a partial explanation of the mystery of why wages have been rising, profits have been holding, and price inflation has not been going up.I hope you will give us a chance to see all of this and work on it further.I still think it is appropriate to worry very strongly about inflation.If we get adverse information in the next few weeks, I think we should be prepared to reconsider.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': 'I support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoenig.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I am uneasy about waiting.I think that cost pressures are building.I, like President Moskow, was fascinated by the productivity discussion and would like to see that analysis.If I were voting, I would say that I prefer to move now, but I would accept your recommendation.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Phillips.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. PHILLIPS.', 'text': 'I support your recommendation of ""B"" asymmetric.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Guynn.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,entailment,utterance
10,10,19971112_105_3,MR. PARRY.,"""In particular, if this path were embarked upon somewhat sooner than is assumed in the Greenbook forecast, would you modify the response of the economy in light of the possibility that it might generate some financial consequences that are not incorporated in the forecast?""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'Cash flow in the nonfinancial corporate sector is not growing as fast as capital expenditure, and we are seeing a widening of the financing gap. As we go out through the forecast period, the financing gap gets to be sizable enough that at least we would not think that firms will be spending simply because money is coming into their coffers and they have to do something with it. It begins to be a less favorable factor as we move out through 1998 and certainly into 1999. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'Thank you. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'The year 1999 is where we see profits really declining.Indeed, that is one of the reasons we have only the mildest of declines in the stock market through the first part of next year.Year-on-year comparisons of earnings in our forecast will still look quite good.Certainly if there is any continuing inclination for investors to be optimistic, as they clearly have been in recent years, I do not think reduced earnings will be such a rude shock to the markets that they would have devastating effects on share prices in the early part of our forecast period.Cash flow in the nonfinancial corporate sector is not growing as fast as capital expenditure, and we are seeing a widening of the financing gap.As we go out through the forecast period, the financing gap gets to be sizable enough that at least we would not think that firms will be spending simply because money is coming into their coffers and they have to do something with it.It begins to be a less favorable factor as we move out through 1998 and certainly into 1999.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'Thank you.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry.'}]",no,,,,
11,11,20010320_147_8,MR. MEYER.,"""It would leave market participants speculating day in and day out about whether we were in or about to hold an emergency meeting to cut the target funds rate.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. My position is very similar to that of Presidents Minehan, Broaddus, and Guynn, a little stronger than President Moskow's. I support your recommendation for a 50 basis point decline in the target funds rate today, along with a statement that the risks remain unbalanced toward economic weakness. But I would very strongly prefer to avoid any direct or explicit hint in our statement of an intermeeting move. I haven't heard much support for a 75 basis point move, so I won't argue the case for 50 as opposed to 75. A 50 basis point move today along with a statement of unbalanced risks as always, as has been pointed out, holds open the possibility of an intermeeting move. But hinting more directly at such a possibility in the statement, especially if we repeat something like the words in our December 19th statement--in effect using a code that will be interpreted as an inclination toward an intermeeting move --would, in my view, be a mistake. It would leave market participants speculating day in and day out about whether we were in or about to hold an emergency meeting to cut the target funds rate. It could aggravate the market's response to every newly reported indicator and it would leave equity prices continually buffeted by such speculation. This type of uncertainty in my view has no up side. My preference to avoid a direct hint of an intermeeting move also reflects my preference for policy decisions to be taken at our regular meetings. To be sure, there are circumstances when an intermeeting move is a valuable part of our toolkit and, Mr. Chairman, you have used this tool sparingly and wisely in the time I've served on this Committee. I am confident you will continue to do so. Still, I do not believe it would be wise to set policy so as to leave the impression that an intermeeting move has a very high probability or to tell the markets that we are so inclined.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': ""Even with the 50 basis point easing, the risks remain tilted toward weakness. I am uneasy about the language regarding an intermeeting move. I'm not sure exactly what we gain from it or how it helps us in moving forward. Perhaps we could have more discussion on that. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Meyer. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': ""I meant toward the green, since that's the way I usually play golf![Laughter] But, seriously, I thought your statement was excellent.I do think we need to ease.I believe we should be measured in our actions, as I said in my comments and as Cathy Minehan mentioned as well.In my view, 50 basis points should be enough for now.I agree that we need to avoid trying to fulfill the ever more extreme market expectations.We can't hope to keep up with such expectations, and even if we were to cut the funds rate more than 50 basis points today, it's not clear that the markets would be affected in anything but the short run, as you mentioned.Also, I support retaining the asymmetric language.Even with the 50 basis point easing, the risks remain tilted toward weakness.I am uneasy about the language regarding an intermeeting move.I'm not sure exactly what we gain from it or how it helps us in moving forward.Perhaps we could have more discussion on that.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Meyer.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,,utterance
12,12,19990203_233_1,MR. PARRY.,"""I agree with much of what has been said.""","I agree with much of what has been said. Just to add to a point that Cathy Minehan was making: This does seem to present us, as a Committee, with an opportunity to discuss in the testimony what we think the role of the aggregates should be. We have spent a great deal of time over the years talking about this issue, and we end up giving the targets more prominence than most of us think is warranted. This may be an opportunity to adopt a procedure that would more closely reflect what we in fact do and what we believe in terms of the weight these statistics versus others should be given.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'It seems to me one of the advantages of that would be that it would help to signal the undesirable consequences of not taking policy actions in one direction or the other that we need to take. It might put us in a position to be more proactive in presenting our policy stance and perhaps less defensive in public discussions of monetary policy. I believe that is the procedure the Bank of England uses in its current reporting approach. That is another suggestion I think we ought to look at. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'I would suggest one other change.One of the key parts in the report is the summary of the individual projections we provide, which are encapsulated in the central tendency projections in the report.To clarify those, it would be helpful if we all made them contingent on a uniform assumption of no change in policy.That would in a sense put us all on the same page and eliminate any ambiguity or confusion or lack of clarity that might result from the fact that different members of the Committee may be using different policy assumptions in generating their own individual forecasts.It seems to me one of the advantages of that would be that it would help to signal the undesirable consequences of not taking policy actions in one direction or the other that we need to take.It might put us in a position to be more proactive in presenting our policy stance and perhaps less defensive in public discussions of monetary policy.I believe that is the procedure the Bank of England uses in its current reporting approach.That is another suggestion I think we ought to look at.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry.'}]",yes,no,,,
13,13,20031028_194_1,MR. REINHART.,"""The first question is, Is there any clear preference as to the basic structure of the assessment of the outlook?""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': 'I could set aside time on the December 9 agenda after the policy decision to consider the matter, and you could decide perhaps not to be bound by the 2:00 p.m. deadline. I could arrange a dinner meeting on December 8, the night before that meeting. Third, this could be the subject of the discussion on the Tuesday afternoon of your next two-day meeting in late January. With any of those options, though, you might want to take into consideration how the public will react to news that the Committee is once again talking about communications, especially if you are not certain that the conversation will bring closure, at least for now. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Why don't you put each question on the table and ask for comments. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': 'If so, there is a question of sequencing.Do you want to grapple with modifying the existing language to express a new tilt, or would such a transition be an appropriate time to adopt a new structure?Fourth, when do you want to talk about this next?Looking at the calendar, there are three immediate opportunities.I could set aside time on the December 9 agenda after the policy decision to consider the matter, and you could decide perhaps not to be bound by the 2:00 p.m. deadline.I could arrange a dinner meeting on December 8, the night before that meeting.Third, this could be the subject of the discussion on the Tuesday afternoon of your next two-day meeting in late January.With any of those options, though, you might want to take into consideration how the public will react to news that the Committee is once again talking about communications, especially if you are not certain that the conversation will bring closure, at least for now.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Why don't you put each question on the table and ask for comments.""}]",no,,,,
14,14,20070509_202_3,MS. MINEHAN.,"""There might be other ways--for example, alternative scenarios, qualitative discussions of risk, or that sort of thing--that seem to some of us preferable.""","I take Vice Chairman Geithner's comments very seriously, but I want to raise just one thing because I would like it to get into the survey. We were offered one way of reflecting uncertainty regarding forecasts. There might be other ways--for example, alternative scenarios, qualitative discussions of risk, or that sort of thing--that seem to some of us preferable. If you can phrase a question that would draw out of us other ways in which we might like to characterize the risks around our forecast, I think that would be helpful because I, for one, find the range of distribution of errors kind of difficult.","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': ""I don't know what we are planning for June--June is a two-day meeting, right? ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Right. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': ""So I don't think we can have these conversations before the next round. Let's make sure that we give ourselves time in June and beyond so we can start to talk through this--so that those who didn't speak today about their initial reactions aren't left without the opportunity to engage in this because there's a whole range of things we could address, including the three issues raised so far. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Minehan. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MISHKIN.', 'text': 'So there is a question mark about how to think about that in the future because it is the gray area that makes this exercise more difficult.We do need to think about it.That\'s what I struggled with when I sat down and asked, ""How am I actually going to do this?""'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Vice Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': ""You know, we're going to have to talk through a lot of substantive issues on this.I thought, if we're going to do it, let's do it now.But you've all raised some of those questions.I'm looking at the clock.My suggestion is this.I don't know what we are planning for June--June is a two-day meeting, right?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Right.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': ""So I don't think we can have these conversations before the next round.Let's make sure that we give ourselves time in June and beyond so we can start to talk through this--so that those who didn't speak today about their initial reactions aren't left without the opportunity to engage in this because there's a whole range of things we could address, including the three issues raised so far.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Minehan.'}]",no,,,,
15,15,20020130_187_11,MR. STERN.,"""And I would say that the tourism business has been adversely affected by the weather.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The latest readings on the District economy are consistent with what we've been seeing and saying about the business news more broadly. Consumer spending has been strong, particularly for home furnishings, electronics, autos, and at bars and restaurants. Housing had a very good year in 2001. Construction activity was strong, and home sales were at record levels. And realtors are optimistic; they think 2002 will be even better than 2001. On the other hand, layoffs have continued. But the unemployment rate Districtwide and in the major metropolitan areas such as the Twin Cities remains in the neighborhood of 4 percent. That suggests that a lot of the laid-off workers either have been absorbed elsewhere in the economy or perhaps have chosen to spend a few months in Florida or Arizona, as Minnesotans are wont to do this time of year, and wait things out there. Manufacturing is struggling but does appear to be stabilizing. And I would say that the tourism business has been adversely affected by the weather. The weather has been too good. But the other side of the coin is that the mild weather has had a very favorable effect on household utility bills, which are running well below last year's. As far as the national outlook is concerned, I think the prospects for the economy are favorable. I don't have any significant quarrel with the Greenbook forecast. My own view is that the first half of the year will probably be a bit slower than in the Greenbook and that the second half may be a little stronger, but overall the difference is not significant. Our VAR forecasting model, which has a pretty good track record except perhaps at turning points, [laughter] has the same general path as the Greenbook, although a bit more subdued. Certainly there is some possibility that the consumer will be a cause for concern, especially if labor market conditions deteriorate further or don't even stabilize. But I'm wondering whether there isn't less of a mystery about consumer behavior than one might otherwise think. After all, disposable income has risen consistently over many years now and household net worth, while down from its March 2000 peak, is still considerably above where it was five or ten years ago. Against that background, I don't find the ongoing strength in consumer spending all that big a surprise.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MCTEER.', 'text': ""We tend to agree with their views, and we think the staff projection is about right. If anything, I'm a bit more optimistic. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if the fourth-quarter GDP number came in as a small positive! [Laughter] ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MCTEER.', 'text': ""Most of the declines in sales tax revenue were concentrated in Dallas and its nearby suburbs, where the telecom corridor is located.For me the significant development in the national economy is that data that had been uniformly bad have recently turned mixed and, in fact, most recently have been almost uniformly positive.I have in mind, for example, the rebound in consumer confidence, the leading indicators, and the indexes of manufacturing activity.The declining inventory depletion that will probably take place in the current quarter is likely to give a confidence-building boost to the headline GDP number.But as the staff has pointed out, the real question is the sustainability of the initial boost the economy will get from a turnaround in inventory liquidation.We have no quarrel with the broad outlines of the Greenbook forecast and the staff analysis.We tend to agree with their views, and we think the staff projection is about right.If anything, I'm a bit more optimistic.Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if the fourth-quarter GDP number came in as a small positive![Laughter]""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern.'}]",yes,no,,,
16,16,19790522_135_5,MR. COLDWELL.,"""It seems to me that our current posture has some elements of restraint but those elements of restraint are coming in the housing field, largely in the usury ceilings and the thrift flows, which of course are the traditional ways.""","Mr. Chairman, I am delighted to see the slowing in the economy. I've been hoping for it for a year. I think we're getting some reduction in the level of activity and I hope it continues for a while longer. I think we need to look at our basic objectives here because we have a problem of whether we are aiming to maintain a semblance of real growth or to contain inflation or a combination thereof. It seems to me that our current posture has some elements of restraint but those elements of restraint are coming in the housing field, largely in the usury ceilings and the thrift flows, which of course are the traditional ways. I think we run a risk on two sides. We run a risk of recession, of course, and we run a risk of some acceleration in inflation. The latter stems primarily from what I'd call an energy tax, because we are being hit with a very sizable tax thrown at us by energy costs. I suspect we can weather the food cost problem, especially to the extent that we can open up our borders to further imports, if there is anything to bring in. But I don't think the energy cost impact is going to go away and it is going to [spread] throughout our economy. You may recall the last time around that it took several months if not a year or more [for the energy shock] to [exert] its full impact. I suspect that the retail sales picture is giving us the signal that things are being slowed by energy costs and agricultural or food costs. Frankly, I welcome the slowdown. I'd prefer it hadn't come from further energy cost increases, but maybe over the long haul this will do us a favor and force us into some actions we should have taken six or seven years ago. A s for our monetary policy posture, I still believe that inflation will be our principal problem in the coming months and years. Whether we can achieve a reduction in inflation by a nice slow pattern is something we have not yet proved. I suspect it's going to require more strenuous efforts than have been mounted so far.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""A modest easing in rates now, although coming at a time when inflation is very high, could very well forestall a need for very sharp declines in interest rates later on. So I think the moment is now. I'm sure I won't get much support for this proposition, but I feel very strongly that now is the time. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Frank. Phil. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""If we are seeking a soft landing, then I think we've got to move monetary policy now in a less restrictive direction.If we're going to recognize the lags of monetary policy, we have to do what we've never done before and that is to move before the evidence is overwhelming that we are in a recession.Now, this would take some explaining to the public because it would represent a radical departure from the past practice of always overstaying a policy of either ease or restraint.That has been the record of the past 15 years and I would hope that in this go-around we could break out of that cycle.[To do sol it seems to me that we have to move toward ease at this meeting.A modest easing in rates now, although coming at a time when inflation is very high, could very well forestall a need for very sharp declines in interest rates later on.So I think the moment is now.I'm sure I won't get much support for this proposition, but I feel very strongly that now is the time.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Frank.Phil.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,,
17,17,19970702_315_4,MS. PHILLIPS.,"""Should we tighten in August or early fall, we would look rather foolish if we had just removed the bias.""","I agree with ""B"" asymmetric. Since inflation and pipeline inflation look pretty benign, it seems to me that there is time to see whether the economy will slow to a more sustainable growth rate. With regard to symmetry, since there is more likelihood that we are going to tighten than to ease and since we adopted an asymmetric directive at the last meeting, I think the asymmetry should be continued. Should we tighten in August or early fall, we would look rather foolish if we had just removed the bias. I continue to believe that we will have to tighten in view of the strong labor and equity markets, but it does seem to me that there is time to let the situation develop a bit. At 5-1/2 percent, the federal funds rate may not be that far out of alignment, particularly as long rates have come down. So, I think we should conserve our monetary tools for now.","[{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'But with strong continuing forward momentum in economic activity, tight labor markets, and indications of incipient if not fully realized asset bubbles, I think there are real danger signs. You have mentioned, Mr. Chairman, the need over the near term to think about tightening monetary policy. I am very much in agreement with that. I wanted to interject this note of caution from the financial as opposed to the real side of the economy, but I am, as I said, in favor of your recommendation at this meeting. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Phillips. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Everyone who can pick up a hammer becomes a construction worker, and all of this feeds back into the economy in the form of increasing pressures and rising prices.I think the boom is inevitably followed by a bust and the anecdotal evidence suggests the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust.There is no question that our economy right now is about as good as it gets.As President Boehne and others have pointed out, we should be very pleased about that, and I think there is good reason for waiting and seeing right now.But with strong continuing forward momentum in economic activity, tight labor markets, and indications of incipient if not fully realized asset bubbles, I think there are real danger signs.You have mentioned, Mr. Chairman, the need over the near term to think about tightening monetary policy.I am very much in agreement with that.I wanted to interject this note of caution from the financial as opposed to the real side of the economy, but I am, as I said, in favor of your recommendation at this meeting.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Phillips.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,entailment,utterance
18,18,19830209_928_1,MR. WALLICH.,"""It's on page 4.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Unless anybody has a further question, we ought to vote. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'I find confusing the reference to credit flows. Is that specifically what we mention as total-- '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Where are you? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Page 4. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Let me go back after all this discussion [to the numbers].We put in tentatively: 7 to 10 percent for M2, with a February-March base; 6-1/2 to 9-1/2 percent for M3; 4 to 8 percent for Ml, with a note at the end of that.I take itwe\'re using ""estimated"" instead of ""established"" for the 8-1/2 to 11-1/2 percent range for credit.And in the text of the discussion [in the policy record] that will be rationalized with the present range for bank credit.And that does, as a matter of fact, correspond pretty much--maybe exactly--to alternative I. I note again that most of you at this point have a slightly higher GNP [forecast], nominal and real, than the staff estimated in establishing the alternative II ranges.Unless anybody has a further question, we ought to vote.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'I find confusing the reference to credit flows.Is that specifically what we mention as total--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Where are you?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Page 4.'}]",no,,,,
19,19,19950201_530_4,MR. LINDSEY.,"""The document came from Treasury International Affairs.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'They existed--and that was the problem! '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': ""Could I clarify something? What Governor Mancera said just a couple of hours ago was that, if before the end of the day today he is informed that we the United States are willing to make these $2 billion available, he would envision when he announces his reserve figures to say that they have X, say $2.4 to $2.8 billion, and in addition, because I don't think we can get value to them today, that he had agreement from the Federal Reserve and the Exchange Stabilization Fund for an additional $2 billion, value tomorrow presumably. So he will lay it out accurately, I think. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'I think the major concern--and that is only partly addressed by this since we tentatively plan, at the moment anyhow, to lock up funds--is that announcing he has $2.4 billion in reserves, given the kind of problems he is up against, does make him look rather naked. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I think we will find, after Governor Mancera reported all his money supply and reserve numbers in the Wall Street Journal today, that it is going be difficult for them to say the drawings do not exist.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'That is right.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'They existed--and that was the problem!'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': ""Could I clarify something?What Governor Mancera said just a couple of hours ago was that, if before the end of the day today he is informed that we the United States are willing to make these $2 billion available, he would envision when he announces his reserve figures to say that they have X, say $2.4 to $2.8 billion, and in addition, because I don't think we can get value to them today, that he had agreement from the Federal Reserve and the Exchange Stabilization Fund for an additional $2 billion, value tomorrow presumably.So he will lay it out accurately, I think.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'I think the major concern--and that is only partly addressed by this since we tentatively plan, at the moment anyhow, to lock up funds--is that announcing he has $2.4 billion in reserves, given the kind of problems he is up against, does make him look rather naked.'}]",no,,,,
20,20,19851217_653_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Leave it ""might"" and ""would""?""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': '""...the existing degree of pressure on reserve positions. This action is expected to be consistent with growth in M2 and M3 over the period from November to March at an annual rate of 6 to 8 percent; while the behavior of M1 continues to be subject to unusual uncertainty, growth at an annual rate of 7 to 9 percent is anticipated. Somewhat greater reserve restraint..."" What do you want to do with these ""woulds"" and ""mights""? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Rephrase it ""might"" and ""would."" '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'The difference is the perception.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Oh!But you are probably right; the ""appraisals"" now refers to all of them.It might be better to take out ""appraisals of"" to avoid distinctions between appraisals of the strength of the business expansion and developments in foreign exchange markets.Does anybody else have any suggestions?Does everybody know how it reads?""In the implementation of policy for the near term the Committee seeks to decrease somewhat...""Is ""somewhat"" the right word?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': ""Yes, that's right.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': '""...the existing degree of pressure on reserve positions.This action is expected to be consistent with growth in M2 and M3 over the period from November to March at an annual rate of 6 to 8 percent; while the behavior of M1 continues to be subject to unusual uncertainty, growth at an annual rate of 7 to 9 percent is anticipated.Somewhat greater reserve restraint...""What do you want to do with these ""woulds"" and ""mights""?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Rephrase it ""might"" and ""would.""'}]",no,,,,
21,21,20070131_45_2,MR. LACKER.,"""So the presumption would be that such information gets taken on board and reflected in the prices of new mortgage-backed securities and that it would translate into higher credit spreads at the retail level.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': ""It's quite a bit smaller share of total outstanding because the average life of the subprime mortgage loan, I'm told, is only two or three years. In other words, if your credit quality improves, you will refinance out of your subprime mortgage into a higher quality mortgage. So originations are 24 percent, but the actual number of subprimes that are actually outstanding is much lower. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': ""We reported in yesterday's briefing that subprime borrowers constituted only about 13 percent of all mortgages outstanding. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Lacker. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': ""One reason that is hard to imagine happening to a powerful degree in the end is that the speculators really don't want to take actual delivery of the physical commodity, and so the price really should clear in the spot market on what's happening to underlying supply and demand.But this topic certainly remains under investigation by a number of researchers.I don't think we have the definitive answer to the question at this point.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': ""But we're still working on it.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Vice Chairman Geithner.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': 'Bill, could you or Dave remind us what share of the total outstanding stock of mortgages consists of subprimes or what share of the housing stock do we think is financed at the subprime level?My recollection is that the share is still small even though it has been a large part of the recent flows.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': ""It's quite a bit smaller share of total outstanding because the average life of the subprime mortgage loan, I'm told, is only two or three years.In other words, if your credit quality improves, you will refinance out of your subprime mortgage into a higher quality mortgage.So originations are 24 percent, but the actual number of subprimes that are actually outstanding is much lower.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': ""We reported in yesterday's briefing that subprime borrowers constituted only about 13 percent of all mortgages outstanding.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Lacker.'}]",no,,,,
22,22,19810203_554_1,MR. GRAMLEY.,"""On the basis of cost to banks alone.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""[Secretary's note: Messrs. Black, Ford, Roos and Winn raised their hands.] ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'And the next question is who is not at least strongly-- '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, let's have the other extreme now. Who feels strongly that we should not? [Secretary's note: Mr. Gramley raised his hand.] ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""As I admitted to Lyle a while ago, I think these large gyrations we've had in interest rates have been very upsetting to businessmen who are trying to plan, and I would like to see those gyrations eliminated.The best way to eliminate them is to do what we've said we wanted to do: Get the aggregates down to a lower rate of growth so that we get rid of some of the inflation.I think that will do more to remove volatility in long-term rates than anything else.That's something I can't prove empirically but it certainly seemed to be true in 1960-64 when we did have a relatively low rate of growth in the aggregates.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Let me just ask about the extremes.I'll ask [for you views] symmetrically, but I have to start with one extreme first.Who feels very strongly that they would like to go to contemporaneous reserve accounting?[Secretary's note: Messrs. Black, Ford, Roos and Winn raised their hands.]""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'And the next question is who is not at least strongly--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, let's have the other extreme now.Who feels strongly that we should not?[Secretary's note: Mr. Gramley raised his hand.]""}]",no,,,,
23,23,19821221_761_2,MS. TEETERS.,"""I would guess we ought to go to $175 million [rather than] $200 million, but I don't think it makes a lot of difference.""","Mr. Chairman, I can accept Tony's formulation of this. I would guess we ought to go to $175 million [rather than] $200 million, but I don't think it makes a lot of difference. I also find myself a little [uneasy], given the length of time until the next meeting and all these uncertainties. I'm not necessarily suggesting a full blown FOMC meeting, but I think it would very wise if a couple weeks into January we at least got updated on where we were.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'I was thinking more of, say, some of these banks who at least partially lost their access to the Euro-markets. They might have to come back in for a rather substantial loan. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, it's easier at that point to adjust for it, but in the initial stages it's likely to be hazy. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Yes. I see. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""Where it's a big identifiable borrowing, we make an allowance for that.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Certainly if it's over a sustained period, it would be [counted with] nonborrowed reserves.If it's a bank that just happens to be at the end of the queue and comes in for a day and is out, that strikes me as adjustment borrowing.But if a bank is in for a sustained period, then it's more clearly nonborrowed.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Of course, they tend to be at the end of the queue because they are generally regarded as weak banks.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""That's right.But if, for example, Continental is in one day and then out and it just happened that the borrowing fell on Continental, as it would naturally--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'I was thinking more of, say, some of these banks who at least partially lost their access to the Euro-markets.They might have to come back in for a rather substantial loan.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, it's easier at that point to adjust for it, but in the initial stages it's likely to be hazy.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Yes.I see.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,,
24,24,20080318_3_2,CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.,"""Vice Chairman.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': 'Most dealers expect either a cut of 75 or 100 basis points: There are eight for 100 basis points, ten for 75 basis points, and two for 50 basis points. This compares with the slightly more than 100 basis points built into the April federal funds rate contract (yesterday the April fed funds contract implied a 1.95 percent effective fed funds rate for the month). There were no foreign operations during this period. I request a vote to ratify the operations conducted by the System Open Market Account since the January 30-31 FOMC meeting. Of course, I am very happy to take questions. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': ""The yields implied by Eurodollar futures prices have also shifted sharply lower, as shown in exhibit 18.The trough in yields is expected to be reached in late summer or early fall.Our formal survey of primary dealers, which we normally show you, was conducted more than a week ago, and it is clearly out of date (these exhibits are included in the appendix to the handout).So let me focus on what the dealers' expectations were as of yesterday.They changed quite a bit over the past week.Most dealers expect either a cut of 75 or 100 basis points: There are eight for 100 basis points, ten for 75 basis points, and two for 50 basis points.This compares with the slightly more than 100 basis points built into the April federal funds rate contract (yesterday the April fed funds contract implied a 1.95 percent effective fed funds rate for the month).There were no foreign operations during this period.I request a vote to ratify the operations conducted by the System Open Market Account since the January 30-31 FOMC meeting.Of course, I am very happy to take questions.""}]",no,,,,
25,25,19870211_197_1,VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.,"""And some worry, especially in the Japanese case, that they are really taking a terrible beating in their manufacturing sector now.""","And some worry, especially in the Japanese case, that they are really taking a terrible beating in their manufacturing sector now. So, as I said, I guess today I am a little influenced by that.","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'Well, they start with the government forecast which is 3 percent plus--say, 3-1/2 to 4 percent. Then they talk a little about the Bank of Japan forecast and shave a half point off that. Then they start wriggling in terms of their own forecasts, so with the body english, I ended up with 2 percent or less. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That is where the Germans are. It's not very exciting. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'As a number of people said, the trade sector is obviously crucial.And frankly, I blow hot and cold on that.Sometimes I think we have a good shot at doing better than the forecast and other times I say ""no way"".I guess right now I am, to some extent, in the cold camp as opposed to the hot camp.And that came about in part from listening to President Poehl and Governor Sumita over the weekend in Basle, both of whom were really distinctly more cautious about economic prospects in Germany and Japan.Clearly, in terms of the favorable world economic situation--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'How are the Japanese talking now?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'Well, they start with the government forecast which is 3 percent plus--say, 3-1/2 to 4 percent.Then they talk a little about the Bank of Japan forecast and shave a half point off that.Then they start wriggling in terms of their own forecasts, so with the body english, I ended up with 2 percent or less.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That is where the Germans are.It's not very exciting.""}]",no,,,,
26,26,19870211_349_4,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""So we're going to be very vague anyway.""","Well, I don't interpret it that way. Given all the difficulties of explaining this, that is not my feeling. Unfortunately, the fact of the matter is that we are in a situation where we can't interpret M1 in terms of anything like an appropriate growth rate. So we're going to be very vague anyway.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""That's why I like variant I without a number. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""You have expressed my gut feeling. I think that we send a better substantive message without a number--and we don't know what the number means anyway. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""Okay, if you accept that part, how do you get away from the fact that we're walking away from a narrow aggregate target at all? It's not that M1 is the right one, but how do we get back into that ball game down the road? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""But 7 to 13 percent doesn't give that message to me.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'I think something like variant I in combination with ratcheting down M2 and M3 at least gives that signal.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'I agree with that.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'It conveys that message.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""Yes, I agree with that.I think putting a number in gets in the way of what you're trying to explain.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That's my point.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""People are going to have to think a bit about the implications of what is in variant I. If we put a number in there people are going to look at the number and forget about what we're really trying to say.That's why I like variant I without a number.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""You have expressed my gut feeling.I think that we send a better substantive message without a number--and we don't know what the number means anyway.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""Okay, if you accept that part, how do you get away from the fact that we're walking away from a narrow aggregate target at all?It's not that M1 is the right one, but how do we get back into that ball game down the road?""}]",no,,,,
27,27,19821221_726_2,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""This states it the other way around, resulting from the introduction of the new money market accounts.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': '""From market instruments."" We\'re not talking from M1 up to M2. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'From market instruments and large CDs. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""That's why I think that sentence has to be limited to M2. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Right, it should be limited to M2. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We say explicitly--Steve just gave me some language: ""Allowing for some shifting into broader aggregates, particularly M2, resulting from the introduction of the new money market accounts.""So, we\'ve explicitly said that 9-1/2 percent allows for someand then we keep something like the next sentence that is already there.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'Could we say ""a modest shift""?'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""We don't know if it's going to be modest.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'But in this first sentence we said [unintelligible] allowing for modest shifting or something.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'I want to protect against the possibility that we may have to allow M2 to grow by 14 or 16 percent or some number like that.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': '[That would be covered in] the next sentence.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'The next sentence says that.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'I think we might even be justified in calling it a minimal shifting.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': '""Allows for a modest amount of shifting.""'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, let\'s see: ""allowing for modest shifting"" or ""some shifting.""'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': '""From market instruments.""We\'re not talking from M1 up to M2.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'From market instruments and large CDs.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""That's why I think that sentence has to be limited to M2.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Right, it should be limited to M2.'}]",no,,,,
28,28,19861216_354_5,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""The trouble is that this is getting too complicated, obviously.""","I think we could have a discussion of Ml. Maybe we could mention studies and all of this other stuff. I didn't look at it very carefully, but I think we could say that we are not ignoring it, but that we find ourselves unable just to give a simple range that encompasses all the significance of it. [How we view] it would depend upon circumstances, and we can try to describe the circumstances. The trouble is that this is getting too complicated, obviously. The basic point that we would make is that we think M1 has a lot of interest elasticity and an increase or a decrease should not be a surprise if there are changes in interest rates that may be appropriate for other reasons.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'That might be more useful than anything else. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I didn't mean literally within the box. All I meant to say is that I thought it should not be buried on page 28 of the testimony--that it should get some prominence. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Page 16? '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'You know what I mean! '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""But if other things happened and interest rates went up, we would expect M1 to run low, and the public shouldn't be surprised by that; if interest rates were declining and the economy was soft, we would expect M1 to run high.If inflation is down, we wouldn't be disturbed by a higher figure; if inflation is rising and interest rates are rising, we wouldn't be disturbed by a lower figure.Everyone ought to understand that that's the way we will appraise Ml--as a kind of supplementary device to the other targets, without putting it in the box, or setting a monitoring range per se.We might footnote it or something.I don't know how much one can say in a box.It's a visual point, but I think we could have a useful discussion of M1 indicating the kinds of conditions under which we would be disturbed or not disturbed by a big slowdown or a greater increase.That might be more useful than anything else.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I didn't mean literally within the box.All I meant to say is that I thought it should not be buried on page 28 of the testimony--that it should get some prominence.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Page 16?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'You know what I mean!'}]",yes,,,,
29,29,19960326_52_3,MR. HOENIG.,"""Moreover, all seven states in the District added jobs at a fairly robust pace in January.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'It is difficult to find a builder in the District who is not feeling that. I think low mortgage rates and the perception that mortgage rates have bottomed out have been a stimulus. But at least for the Philadelphia District, with existing home sales much slower than new home sales and population growth slow in the mid-Atlantic region, I think one has to be skeptical about the sustainability of the rapid increase in new home sales. Nonetheless, for a District that has been rather sluggish for a long time, a spur in residential construction is welcome at this point. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoenig. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'What has impressed me most in recent weeks is the surge in new housing sales in the District.For the better builders, this surge has been apparent for a couple of months.Even in the dead of winter, the traffic into showrooms was very high, and people were more than looking; they were signing contracts.Now, if you talk to the builders who are not the most competitive or the leading builders, they also are feeling the upturn in activity.It is difficult to find a builder in the District who is not feeling that.I think low mortgage rates and the perception that mortgage rates have bottomed out have been a stimulus.But at least for the Philadelphia District, with existing home sales much slower than new home sales and population growth slow in the mid-Atlantic region, I think one has to be skeptical about the sustainability of the rapid increase in new home sales.Nonetheless, for a District that has been rather sluggish for a long time, a spur in residential construction is welcome at this point.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoenig.'}]",no,,,,
30,30,20081029_202_3,MR. LOCKHART.,"""The sentiment of directors and their contacts has turned decidedly more pessimistic regarding current economic conditions and the near-term outlook.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': ""Okay. Why don't we take fifteen minutes for coffee, and then we'll do part of the go-round. Thank you. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': ""Well, why don't we turn part of our dinner period to the go-round. Let's start with President Lockhart. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': 'Obviously, it is very difficult to separate things that might actually have changed the transmission channel of monetary policy from just big financial developments that have offset the beneficial effects of easing policy.We built an assumption into the baseline forecast that GDP responds close to the average response to a fed funds rate reduction, as would normally be the case.The one small technical area in which it seems as though the effect almost certainly would be smaller is that, with the equity premium so high right now, any given change in the funds rate is likely to result in a smaller change in the required return on equity and probably a smaller stock market response than you would normally get.So I think, basically, it is certainly possible, but in our forecast we have assumed that the additional reductions will have GDP consequences along the lines of the normal response.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': ""Okay.Why don't we take fifteen minutes for coffee, and then we'll do part of the go-round.Thank you.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': ""Well, why don't we turn part of our dinner period to the go-round.Let's start with President Lockhart.""}]",no,,,,
31,31,19811222_502_1,MR. STERNLIGHT.,"""The discount rate becomes a kind of anchor around which the funds rate clusters once there's enough borrowing to make that discount rate meaningful.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""We've assumed in the Bluebook that if the path were $450 million and it was successfully hit, probably there would be some little upward tick in the funds rate, but maybe not a lot. I would assume that $350 million at a minimum would probably avoid that; whether that would cause the funds rate to drop initially, I feel more agnostic about. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""I wouldn't disagree with that. I would tend to think of something like $250 million of borrowing as perhaps likely to keep the funds rate just around the discount rate, $350 million maybe 1/4 percentage point over it, and $450 million a little more--maybe 1/2 point--over it. ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'To what extent does the discount rate act as a floor? '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Well, I think there's a difference of view among the technical people as to whether initial borrowing of $350 million means a lower rate or the same rate as we've been seeing lately.Borrowings have been running on average less than the $450 million.We might ask both Steve and Peter to comment on what they think the implications are.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""We've assumed in the Bluebook that if the path were $450 million and it was successfully hit, probably there would be some little upward tick in the funds rate, but maybe not a lot.I would assume that $350 million at a minimum would probably avoid that; whether that would cause the funds rate to drop initially, I feel more agnostic about.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""I wouldn't disagree with that.I would tend to think of something like $250 million of borrowing as perhaps likely to keep the funds rate just around the discount rate, $350 million maybe 1/4 percentage point over it, and $450 million a little more--maybe 1/2 point--over it.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'To what extent does the discount rate act as a floor?'}]",no,,,,
32,32,20061025_32_5,MR. PLOSSER.,"""That distinction is part of it, as is whether the way you estimate the cyclical component of employment and so forth affects the forecast and whether it adjusts very quickly or very slowly in shaping the picture going forward, particularly into 2007 and 2008.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""But it would be a real gamble on our part to conclude that it wasn't, at least in some important sense, due to the administrative measures that they took. I don't think the officials are so unable to have a consequence with their policy tools, such as they are, if they are really determined--and they certainly seemed to be determined. Thus I would attribute much of the figure to the administrative measures, but we can't rule out some capacity constraints here and there. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Chairman. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Plosser. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""From our attempt to turn the series into quarter-to-quarter changes rather than the data that are announced, we certainly had higher numbers for the first half of this year than were generally talked about.The released numbers were tens and so forth, and we had twelves.Similarly, as a consequence we had a much greater slowdown than the released numbers, and we could be exaggerating both.Possibly it wasn't really quite as strong as we thought in the first half, and it may not have slowed quite as much as we saw in the third quarter.But it would be a real gamble on our part to conclude that it wasn't, at least in some important sense, due to the administrative measures that they took.I don't think the officials are so unable to have a consequence with their policy tools, such as they are, if they are really determined--and they certainly seemed to be determined.Thus I would attribute much of the figure to the administrative measures, but we can't rule out some capacity constraints here and there.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Plosser.'}]",no,,,,
33,33,20080625_172_1,CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.,"""I think the Vice Chairman raises an interaction that I hadn't thought of, which is that our facilities are existing under the premise of unusual and exigent circumstances, and we don't really want to undercut that.""","I think the Vice Chairman raises an interaction that I hadn't thought of, which is that our facilities are existing under the premise of unusual and exigent circumstances, and we don't really want to undercut that. President Fisher.","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': 'They are in place today. They are exceptionally significant in terms of a change in policy. They are there because we think they are playing an important role in helping facilitate the necessary process of repairing markets et cetera. If we were going to take them back tomorrow or dial them back substantially, then I would be willing to rationalize and explain that part of the judgment is that we think things are improving materially. I just feel as though the risk is too high. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'But if others would like to express a view, I think yet a third thing that we could do would be to say, ""Financial markets, though somewhat improved recently, remain under considerable stress.""That might be a way to address it.Does anyone have any thoughts on that word?Any concerns?President Lacker?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': ""I thought Vice Chairman Geithner's characterization of markets was pretty good, but it is compatible with your suggestion.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Vice Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': 'If we look back and try to recalibrate at each meeting whether things are getting better or things are getting worse, we would regret each zig and each zag.So I would just say that we have a suite of facilities in place.They are in place today.They are exceptionally significant in terms of a change in policy.They are there because we think they are playing an important role in helping facilitate the necessary process of repairing markets et cetera.If we were going to take them back tomorrow or dial them back substantially, then I would be willing to rationalize and explain that part of the judgment is that we think things are improving materially.I just feel as though the risk is too high.'}]",yes,no,,,
34,34,19931116_620_3,MR. ANGELL.,"""Now, if you want to make a substitute motion and reverse the order, that's your privilege.""","But, Mike, one person thinks one way and one thinks the other. A motion has been made and seconded. Now, if you want to make a substitute motion and reverse the order, that's your privilege.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""I think they're bundled. That's Larry's word and I think he's correct. I think if we go one route, turning the tape recorder off is a much more sensible way to go. If we go with either alternative number 3 or number 4, then I think we leave the tapes on and get permission to erase them from the Archivist. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""I don't know what the majority is on keeping the tape recorder on.But let's find out.Let's vote.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Okay, I'm willing to--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': '[We might first] have a vote between this question of something like minutes that we release quickly or an MOD or edited transcript--those two options--which is essentially your attribution versus non-attribution question.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I might suggest that the first one is really: Do we keep the tape on or turn it off?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""That's fine.Mr. Chairman, I would move that we leave the tape recorder on.All right?""}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Second.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': ""You'd leave the tape recorder on?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""Yes.That's what we're moving.Vote it down if you don't want it.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""I think they're bundled.That's Larry's wordand I think he's correct.I think if we go one route, turning the tape recorder off is a much more sensible way to go.If we go with either alternative number 3 or number 4, then I think we leave the tapes on and get permission to erase them from the Archivist.""}]",no,,,,
35,35,19980929_275_3,VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.,"""What did we learn there?""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'In that sense, every loss is an error. The issue is to define the error. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'I agree that we are going to need that information for our testimony, which is being prepared by some of the people who are sitting at the end of this table. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'If we indicate what we are doing to find the answers, that is fine. This to me is where the issue of the responsiveness of the Federal Reserve is going to be. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'I think we are all trying to make estimates on the fly, but that is not going to give a very accurate description of how it really works.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'What I think we are going to need for our testimony on Thursday is a general summary of what we do as examiners, how often we do it, and why banks with a huge amount of experience in lending got caught in this kind of thing.We need an answer.The answer is not that it should not have happened.Part of banking involves losing money.Banks never make a loan that they do not expect to be repaid.In that sense, every loss is an error.The issue is to define the error.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'I agree that we are going to need that information for our testimony, which is being prepared by some of the people who are sitting at the end of this table.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'If we indicate what we are doing to find the answers, that is fine.This to me is where the issue of the responsiveness of the Federal Reserve is going to be.'}]",no,,,,
36,36,19891219_5_13,MR. PRELL.,"""Dave will begin.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'First, may I have a motion to approve the minutes? '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'So move. '}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Second. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Without objection. Mr. Prell, would you like to start us off? '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern is on his way, but we can get started.First, may I have a motion to approve the minutes?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'So move.'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Second.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Without objection.Mr. Prell, would you like to start us off?'}]",no,,,,
37,37,19770517_46_3,MR. ROOS.,"""And the farmer's ability to repay in many instances is limited by the income that he can earn off of working that land.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Do they classify them as real estate? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'Yes. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'So they are primarily secured by the real estate. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""The second deed of trust. And it's not just the banks, it's the S&Ls, too, that are doing it. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JACKSON.', 'text': 'Because many times the existing first mortgage, which may be assumed or retained, is at such a low interest rate--4, 5, 6, or 7 percent--that the combined total cost of the two produces a lower cost to the customer than a refinance rate at current rates, which now have risen to the 9 to 9-1/4 rate, I understand, out there.Is that correct, John?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""That's right.The prime lending rate on [mortgages] for good property has gone up about a half point.But in response to your comment, Phil, I agree that there is nothing new in this in terms of the principle.But what is [new] in my opinion is the intensity of the speculation to get amateurs of all kinds buying these second and third houses, renting them out for awhile, and hoping to make a killing.And, you know, as long as values stay up, that's fine, but if the values collapse, [there's] going to be some people unable to service those second mortgages, in my opinion.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Are these real estate loans, John?Do they classify them as real estate?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'So they are primarily secured by the real estate.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""The second deed of trust.And it's not just the banks, it's the S&Ls, too, that are doing it.""}]",no,,,,
38,38,19930203_275_3,MR. KEEHN.,"""In a perfect world, frankly, that's what I'd prefer.""","Mr. Chairman, as you went through your opening comments I completely agreed with what you said and how you said it but, honestly, I thought you were coming to a different conclusion. I thought you made a very good case for leaving the ranges where they were and not making a change. In a perfect world, frankly, that's what I'd prefer. But I do understand that we aren't in a perfect world and that there are some political perceptions out there that we need to deal with. But there seem to have been enough changes since the correspondence we received indicating that we might reduce our ranges--and certainly the incoming data for this year suggest that the numbers are moving even further away from our expectations--that one could make a case that developments have taken place that make a change not seem appropriate. The uncertainties are very, very significant and, therefore, I would leave the ranges where they are. I'd prefer to keep them where we tentatively set them last July, but I certainly don't feel strongly enough about it to dissent. Therefore, I would support the case that you made because you seem to feel more comfortable in a political context with what you've said, and I'd support that.","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': ""So, why not explain that this is not a target and that we don't really have targets. We can set up monitoring ranges for M1 and the base, which might be useful for some purposes [in terms of] where we think they may fall, but they're not targets for the Committee. What is a target is either nominal GDP or various real indicators. And for better or worse, if that's the way the Committee is conducting its affairs, then I think that ought to be explained. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Keehn. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'I can imagine a set of circumstances, without putting a probability on it, where the yield curve could flatten dramatically, we could get 1 percent M1 growth and 8 percent M2 growth, and as long as we were getting something close to the central tendency [of our forecasts] or the Board staff projection on nominal and real GDP this Committee wouldn\'t do anything.It\'s inconsistent in my view to say ""Here\'s a target for M2"" and not seek institutional arrangements that help us hit it.It\'s not a target if we don\'t try to do something to hit it.So, why not explain that this is not a target and that we don\'t really have targets.We can set up monitoring ranges for M1 and the base, which might be useful for some purposes [in terms of] where we think they may fall, but they\'re not targets for the Committee.What is a target is either nominal GDP or various real indicators.And for better or worse, if that\'s the way the Committee is conducting its affairs, then I think that ought to be explained.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Keehn.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
39,39,19790320_74_19,MR. BLACK.,"""If so, that's an important reason for not doing anything at this particular time.""","Mr. Chairman, I come out somewhat less optimistic than the staff. Like many, we've been impressed by the strength we've had in the economy. It has been much greater up until now, as far as the statistics show, than we had expected. But I'm becoming increasingly concerned by the appearance of scattered signs that we frequently do see before a major downturn. The Redbook mentioned a number of these, [including] a lengthening of delivery times, high capacity utilization, tight supplies in the market for skilled labor, and the inventory figures. The last inventory figure, though partly explainable, coupled with an apparently heavy shift toward short-term borrowing on the part of businesses is certainly the sort of thing one might expect. And I'm especially concerned about the probability that in view of the petroleum situation we'll have some spawning of a general shortage psychology, which will lead to inventory buildups and probably heavy demands for short-term credit. And that will make it pretty difficult to keep M1 under control without pushing interest rates up rather high. Coupling this with the latest price data and the impending labor negotiations, I have to rate the possibility of stagflation or worse as pretty high. So my figures would come out lower than the staff's, somewhere in the neighborhood of what Chuck Partee said. Turning to the policy question, I think we have a difficult choice this morning. The weakness in the aggregates has persisted for about five months and this weakness has been a source of increasing concern to many of us, both within and [outside] the System. It seems to me that one could make a pretty good case for some easing this morning. But on the other side of the coin, there are three reasons why maybe we ought not take any action this morning. One, of course, is that we really don't know what those aggregates are saying. We, like so many others--John Balles and Dave Eastburn as well as Steve Axilrod--have tried to see what we could do by adding back in the things that might have been reducing the aggregates. And some of the arguments that people have made don't seem to us to hold water. But I don't think we can rule out the possibility, indeed the probability, that there has been a downward shift in the demand for money. If so, that's an important reason for not doing anything at this particular time. The second point is that historically we often have had a burst in the aggregates in April because of faulty seasonal adjustments, and I don't think we can rule that out. We could also have a temporary spurt in economic activity. And finally, the improvement in the dollar in the foreign exchange markets has been so fragile that I think any reversal of policy now could certainly jeopardize that. That gets me to the point where we work on [the specifics of] policy, and I won't say anything about that until after the break.","[{'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""Now is the time to sit back and let them work and not make it seem as if we're panicking about what's going on in the economy currently, which I think some people are doing. Also, I doubt that most of the spot prices are going to hold; some of them have been pushed up and are now beginning to recede somewhat. So, my recommendation is no change in policy at the present time. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Nancy. Bob. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""With the possibility that we could dip into a recession and the high costs of that in a variety of areas, I would take the position that we ought to wait another month until we have some better data.The first quarterly estimate by the Commerce Department is notoriously bad.It can bounce from here to over yonder in a month's time: in another month's time we'll have some more real numbers on the economy and that would be an appropriate time to move.I don't think we need additional restraint at the present time.For heavens sakes, our policies are finally beginning to work.Now is the time to sit back and let them work and not make it seem as if we're panicking about what's going on in the economy currently, which I think some people are doing.Also, I doubt that most of the spot prices are going to hold; some of them have been pushed up and are now beginning to recede somewhat.So, my recommendation is no change in policy at the present time.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Nancy.Bob.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,
40,40,19850820_329_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""That's not going to happen that fast.""","That's not going to happen that fast. But the tendency, with a sharp enough decline in the dollar, would be in that direction.","[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'Manufacturing. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Truman has a subtotal of 100 percent capacity utilization. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""Yes, but that's with no give. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think that is probably exaggerated a little. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'That is simply the counterpart to your [85] percent. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""And that you can't dispense with that without it having other consequences.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'Well, the American banks would buy government securities and make less consumer loans and tighten up their standards there.Is that all bad?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'And never sell them.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""You'd have less consumption.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Within limits it is probably not all bad.But you are saying tighten up on consumer loans, tighten up on all other kinds of loans.What you are saying is higher interest rates.That is one consequence, I agree.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'Well, at this level of capacity utilization what would it do?Three percent of GNP would be about 4 to 5 percent on capacity utilization.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't know.You have to look at manufacturing capacity.That is where?You say [85] percent?""}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'Well, you have to look industry-by-industry too.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'Manufacturing.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Truman has a subtotal of 100 percent capacity utilization.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""Yes, but that's with no give.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think that is probably exaggerated a little.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'That is simply the counterpart to your [85] percent.'}]",yes,,,,
41,41,19970702_157_4,MR. PARRY.,"""So, this exhibit seems encouraging to me, but it also illustrates that it would be a mistake to assume that velocity is now stable.""","Also with reference to Exhibit 3, it seems to me that developments in the last couple of years clearly are encouraging. If we focus on the bottom panel of the exhibit, it also seems clear that velocity is continuing to change. In particular, if one had run that regression to include the forecast period, it would have produced a different velocity. So, this exhibit seems encouraging to me, but it also illustrates that it would be a mistake to assume that velocity is now stable.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The most recent observations are on top of the fitted line, so we would expect a little more of a drift. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. SIMPSON.', 'text': 'It could alter the slope. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I don't know how significant it is, but it does raise some questions. Since we have so few observations, it is not clear to me what is happening. President Parry. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Tom, going back to the bottom panel of Exhibit 3, I would assume that if we were to substitute gross domestic income for gross domestic product, the most recent data would not look as good as they do because we would be getting higher V2.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SIMPSON.', 'text': 'Right, the points would be farther apart.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Have you actually done the calculations to see what that would look like?In other words, is part of the tightness of fit that we see a function of the widening statistical discrepancy in the national accounts or is it de minimis?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""I think we are only talking about .02 on this scale.I don't think it would greatly alter the recent picture.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'Especially if the revision went back a couple of years.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""It's a question of starting points for thinking about this.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'But the gap has been opening up since 1994, so V2 shifts up progressively over time from the observations you have here.The most recent observations are on top of the fitted line, so we would expect a little more of a drift.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SIMPSON.', 'text': 'It could alter the slope.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I don't know how significant it is, but it does raise some questions.Since we have so few observations, it is not clear to me what is happening.President Parry.""}]",yes,yes,,ambiguous,
42,42,19870331_49_1,MR. CROSS.,"""[Statement--see Appendix.]""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We have to approve the minutes. Can I have a motion? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'I move we adopt the minutes. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Any objections? Mr. Cross' report. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Do you want to go to $12 billion?Does somebody want to make a motion to go to $12 billion?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'And I will second.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""If there are no objections to that, we will change the overall limit to $12 billion, with the informal understanding that mark balances could go to $8 billion.What's the informal understanding on yen now?I realize that you are going in the other direction on yen now.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': 'We have $3 billion on yen as the informal understanding.The present $10 billion breaks down to $6 billion in marks, $3 billion in yen, and $1 billion for other currencies.If we go to $12 billion, we could propose to divide that into $8 billion, $3 billion, and $1 billion [respectively].'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Okay, returning to the agenda--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'It brings us to the regular minutes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We have to approve the minutes.Can I have a motion?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'I move we adopt the minutes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Any objections?Mr. Cross' report.""}]",no,,,,
43,43,19770816_90_2,MR. ROOS.,"""In looking back over the year and a half that I've had the privilege of attending these meetings, and listening to inputs such as we're presently providing, that year and a half in terms of business conditions has been a strong period.""","Mr. Chairman, I find myself, as a non-economist, somewhat confused. In looking back over the year and a half that I've had the privilege of attending these meetings, and listening to inputs such as we're presently providing, that year and a half in terms of business conditions has been a strong period. We've had basically good business, we've had strong output nationally. And yet, I think with the exception, perhaps, of one or two meetings, as we go around the table, so many of us have attempted to express concerns and doubts and rather pessimistic attitudes toward what is in our minds; we imagine [things] of a negative nature to be lurking just around the corner. And one of the things that confuses me is what seems to be somewhat of an absence of a real definition of what we would consider to be a healthy economy. I mean, we speak in relative terms so often. And if we feel that a slowdown in output from a 7 percent rate of growth to 5-1/2 is something that is really bad, that [it] should be a cause for alarm, then perhaps we have a right to feel some concern about where we're going.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""We will have capital spending picking up as time goes on. I think government purchases, federal and state and local, which have been rather weak for the last two years, are going to be a source of considerably greater strength in the period to come. And so even though we do have in prospect a quarter or two of lesser real growth, I still think that the business recovery is alive and well and will be continued in '78 and that we ought to think in terms of that continued expansion as we try to develop policy prescriptions. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Partee. Mr. Roos now, please. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""And I think that, by itself, is a pretty substantial reason for explaining the performance of the market in the last several months, when it's been moving pretty steadily downward.So that's a level-adjustment type thing and it doesn't really indicate anything about future profits prospects or future business activity prospects; it's simply a stock adjustment in a capital value to reflect something that may happen in the future.So as I say, Mr. Chairman, I think that there aren't serious imbalances in the economy, except perhaps a little overspending by consumers.We will have capital spending picking up as time goes on.I think government purchases, federal and state and local, which have been rather weak for the last two years, are going to be a source of considerably greater strength in the period to come.And so even though we do have in prospect a quarter or two of lesser real growth, I still think that the business recovery is alive and well and will be continued in '78 and that we ought to think in terms of that continued expansion as we try to develop policy prescriptions.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Partee.Mr. Roos now, please.'}]",no,,,,
44,45,19880630_387_2,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""The asymmetric language indicates the direction in which the Desk would be leaning without necessarily acting.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': ""There is good reason to maintain the current posture, especially in view of the high dollar that we're seeing at the present time. If you see a marked turnaround in markets, international or domestic, then I'd say in two or three weeks, or whenever that occurs, we can have a conference call and change our policy posture as may be appropriate at that particular time. So, I'd be for the $550 million borrowing assumption and a conference call. I don't know whether a conference call means we are asymmetric or not. I think I'd rather have the Committee take action than have the Desk automatically do it. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""In terms of the policy record, I don't know how we could communicate it in such a way that it doesn't appear that the Committee has in two successive weeks here taken two further tightening actions.There's probably a way to handle it, in terms of words, so it doesn't come across that way.I think that would be desirable.And I would favor the asymmetric language.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Heller.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': ""Mr. Boehne said it pretty well.There is good reason to maintain the current posture, especially in view of the high dollar that we're seeing at the present time.If you see a marked turnaround in markets, international or domestic, then I'd say in two or three weeks, or whenever that occurs, we can have a conference call and change our policy posture as may be appropriate at that particular time.So, I'd be for the $550 million borrowing assumption and a conference call.I don't know whether a conference call means we are asymmetric or not.I think I'd rather have the Committee take action than have the Desk automatically do it.""}]",no,,,,
45,46,19860401_45_2,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Is it basically lower interest rates, or what?""",,"[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I'll move it. ""}, {'speaker': 'MS.   SEGER.', 'text': 'Second. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Without objection. Mr. Kichline. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.] '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'One of the big banks had a CHIPS problem that kept us up late again, but it had nothing whatever to do with caps.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""Peter, what's the normal spread between the funds rate and the 3-month bill rate?It's about a point now, and I just wondered.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""Well, it normally would be less than that.I think it's fair to say that bills are currently priced with an expectation of the funds rate being lower than the recent 7-3/8 percent--call it, on average maybe 7-1/8 or 7 percent, or something like that.I'm not sure there's any one single figure that is normal, but I think the spread now is toward the wide side of what has been a typical range.It maybe centers around 1/2 a point or something like that.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'If there are no other questions, we will turn to Mr. Kichline.Oh, wait a minute!We have to ratify the transactions.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I'll move it.""}, {'speaker': 'MS.   SEGER.', 'text': 'Second.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Without objection.Mr. Kichline.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.]'}]",no,,,,
46,47,19860401_268_1,VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.,"""Well, my instincts tell me that sentence probably should be symmetrical even though 7 weeks is a long time.""","Well, my instincts tell me that sentence probably should be symmetrical even though 7 weeks is a long time. I don't think we can rule out the possibility, even though I don't see it, that the economy could pick up even faster than most people are assuming.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'SEVERAL. Yes. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't think we can write that into the directive. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'When do we meet again? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'May 20th--7 weeks. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'These are pretty fine shadings.Let me jump down [in the directive].I don\'t know if this language in the directive is great, anyway.Do we want to make it perfectly symmetrical in language in the third sentence?Or would we better capture [the consensus] by changing that sentence to say either ""somewhat"" or ""slightly lesser reserve restraint would be acceptable and somewhat greater reserve restraint might be""?We\'ve used that device from time to time.I think there is a question--we\'ve discussed this before at times, though it wasn\'t appropriate when we changed the discount rate this time.If for some reason, because of international considerations or otherwise, it seemed appropriate to reduce the discount rate at some point, I take it that the sense right now--other things being equal--is that we might increase the borrowing level a bit rather than the opposite.SEVERAL.Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't think we can write that into the directive.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'When do we meet again?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'May 20th--7 weeks.'}]",yes,no,,,
47,48,19850521_166_7,MR. RICE.,"""Having said that, I would favor alternative B with a tilt toward ""A."" By that I mean that I would be willing to relax borrowing a little below Jerry's recommendation and more in accord with the borrowing that we would expect to be compatible with alternative B--in the $300 to $350 million range.""","I would just like to respond very briefly to some of the observations that have been made. First, if I thought we were facing an inflation rate of 5 percent, I certainly would be much more concerned and that would be reflected in my view of appropriate policy in that I'd probably want to be more restrictive. I don't think we are. Secondly, if I thought we could get the inflation rate down under 2 percent by keeping the economy growing at 2 percent and the unemployment rate at 7.3 percent, I would be willing to do that too. I would be willing to pay that price, but I don't think we can get inflation down below 2 percent by holding the economy down at such a low rate of growth. I don't see any beneficial effects to be achieved from such a slow stagnating rate of growth and that is why I said that we ought not to be satisfied with anything less than 3 to 3-1/2 percent. Having said that, I would favor alternative B with a tilt toward ""A."" By that I mean that I would be willing to relax borrowing a little below Jerry's recommendation and more in accord with the borrowing that we would expect to be compatible with alternative B--in the $300 to $350 million range.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Now, there is nothing in the directive language to indicate that any easing has occurred but we have taken a small step in that way. And in particular the term ""maintain"" in the first sentence of alternative B would be somewhat confusing. I recognize the system we use and that the term ""degree of reserve pressures"" refers to the level of borrowing. But I don\'t think that the outside world looks at it quite that narrowly, so they might not understand it. So, I think that\'s at least a question we ought to address if we go with ""B"" as I would guess the Committee probably is going to do. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'But if that had to be, I would rather see that than encounter the kind of scenario that Chuck outlined earlier, where later we find that we were wrong and have to push it up still more.And if an increase is necessary, I think that might be some indication that the economy is really stronger than the Greenbook suggests.On this matter of not changing policy: If the Committee does adopt alternative B, as I suppose it will, I think most people would regard that as a clear easing of the short-run policy stance that we adopted at the March meeting.Now, there is nothing in the directive language to indicate that any easing has occurred but we have taken a small step in that way.And in particular the term ""maintain"" in the first sentence of alternative B would be somewhat confusing.I recognize the system we use and that the term ""degree of reserve pressures"" refers to the level of borrowing.But I don\'t think that the outside world looks at it quite that narrowly, so they might not understand it.So, I think that\'s at least a question we ought to address if we go with ""B"" as I would guess the Committee probably is going to do.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,utterance
48,49,19880630_329_1,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""If we go for alternative III and it turns out to have to be reversed, too, you would be in the same position.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': ""Then we are moving in the wrong direction. In that sense, it sends bad signals to the market, especially if you make some progress and you're getting lower interest rates. And then you say, well, now we are going to increase our monetary growth. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Let me say what I have to say. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': ""I'd be very reluctant to reverse myself later on, having voted for it now. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': 'Like President Morris said: a) it is very difficult to go back on what we have done; b)--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Well, basically I'm saying that no matter how you do it, it is an intention that inevitably will be reviewed.And I presume that this is not locked in concrete, as it shouldn't be.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""If you took the case that Governor Johnson cited, where something happened between now and February such that you had lower rather than higher interest rates, in those circumstances, I'd have no trouble at all myself with changing the targets in February.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'It would be appropriate.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""I think there's just a little loss in credibiliity in doing that.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': ""Then we are moving in the wrong direction.In that sense, it sends bad signals to the market, especially if you make some progress and you're getting lower interest rates.And then you say, well, now we are going to increase our monetary growth.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Let me say what I have to say.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': ""I'd be very reluctant to reverse myself later on, having voted for it now.""}]",no,,,,
49,50,19790522_194_1,M R . COLDWELL.,"""Mr. Chairman, the ranges Steve suggested are just about one half point off my suggestion.""",,"[{'speaker': 'M R . BLACK.', 'text': 'Though mine were slightly different, I can buy his ranges completely. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""That is helpful. I didn't think I'd see that. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""Well, it's for unusual reasons; I didn't get there by the same route he traveled. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Phil. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""That's right.But zero or half--""}, {'speaker': 'M R . BALLES.', 'text': 'Close to it at least.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Yes, that's right.That would get [Ml] to the bottom end of the long-run range.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""No tightening would occur, however, until M1 was growing at around 5-1/2 percent.I wish you hadn't called on me first.I could think about it.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Do you want us to skip you for a moment?'}, {'speaker': 'M R . BALLES.', 'text': 'May I?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Sure.Bob Black.'}, {'speaker': 'M R . BLACK.', 'text': ""I'll be glad to help him out, Mr. Chairman!It seems likely to me that any further tightening could certainly aggravate any recession that might be developing.At the same time, I don't think we ought to abdicate to the forces of inflation.So I think Steve has done remarkably well in choosing the proper ranges.Though mine were slightly different, I can buy his ranges completely.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""That is helpful.I didn't think I'd see that.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""Well, it's for unusual reasons; I didn't get there by the same route he traveled.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Phil.'}]",no,,,,
50,51,19930518_201_2,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""We haven't discussed the fact that we do have a policy record--I beg your pardon, minutes.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""I think deeds, not words, speak to expectations. I just don't see that asymmetry buys us very much. There can be a plus to it, but there can be a negative to it. And I don't think we need to take the chance. We're going to meet frequently. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""If, for example, this turns out to be an inflation bubble--if it turns out not to be a problem and goes away--but the real sector because of all the uncertainty about tax policy and so forth turns out to be a good bit weaker than we [anticipate], we're going to look pretty trigger happy.So I think there is a cost involved.I don't know if it's going to come out that waybut we have a very uncertain environment.The situation can go either way both on the inflation front and on the real growth front.I think we need to watch it very closely and we need to show that we have an open mind as to which direction policy is going to go.If circumstances warrant a tighter policy, then let's tighten.I think deeds, not words, speak to expectations.I just don't see that asymmetry buys us very much.There can be a plus to it, but there can be a negative to it.And I don't think we need to take the chance.We're going to meet frequently.""}]",no,,,,
51,52,20030625_297_6,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""But I would hope that we could stay with this language for today.""","Let me put it this way. These are the words we've used in the past; and in this environment, the fewer words we change, the better. In August we can change the wording. It is perfectly conceivable to me that, by the time we get to our August meeting, we will be looking at an economy that is comparable to that in the Greenbook forecast. It's conceivable that a lot of things will change. But I would hope that we could stay with this language for today. Yes, President Parry.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'You want to take the word ""substantial"" out? Is that what you\'re arguing? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'Yes, we have a different projection now, a much stronger projection. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Well, it is a projection. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'I realize that. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Now, there are disagreements as to where that rate is.But for the purposes of this statement, we're saying that all of the signs plus the additional stimulus would suggest a significant acceleration in economic activity.At the moment, however, we'd be hard pressed to argue that the data we have seen thus far could be characterized as self-perpetuating.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUYNN.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUYNN.', 'text': 'I know you\'re trying to strike a balance between a number of different views, but when I read the words ""unwelcome substantial fall in inflation"" they sound more menacing, more troubling, and indicative of greater concern than I think most of us have.I wonder if there\'s a way to take the edge off of that wording a bit.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'I agree with that.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUYNN.', 'text': 'Are those the same words we used last time?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'You want to take the word ""substantial"" out?Is that what you\'re arguing?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'Yes, we have a different projection now, a much stronger projection.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Well, it is a projection.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'I realize that.'}]",yes,no,,,
52,53,19860923_322_2,MR. JOHNSON.,"""I'm torn about nuances.""","I am in favor of alternative B. I'm torn about nuances. I wouldn't mind having some language describing why we are pausing and seeking no change--language that would be associated with the yield curve and with commodities and the dollar to at least provide some sort of criteria for a guideline. Somebody else mentioned the fact that one problem is that people are starting to wonder in the financial markets what the guideposts are. They don't think that we are paying that much attention to the aggregates, which we are not, and I think we ought at least to tell them what is important to us to some extent. I don't know quite how to engineer that language, but I think it would be useful.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Rice. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'I will join the landslide. Alternative B, no nuances. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Boykin. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': 'My view is the same, ""B."" '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': 'It seems to me that there are conflicting trends regarding the strength of the economic outlook and conflicting trends with regard to the inflationary situation.To a large extent we have done our thing over the last few months.Clearly, the markets are beginning to resist these changes.Perhaps the decision the next time is going to be harder than it is this time; but for now I would simply stand back and see how events develop.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mrs. Horn.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. HORN.', 'text': 'I am for alternative B. As we have been easing policy over time, with each subsequent move we have increasingly asked ourselves the question: Can monetary policy really help the situation of the imbalances and so forth?For the last couple of moves, which I have been in favor of, I have found it harder to answer the question that monetary policy will help.I think we probably have gone about as far we can with monetary policy and now it is time to stop and watch the developments.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'With no nuances?'}, {'speaker': 'MS.   HORN.', 'text': 'No nuances.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Angell.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Alternative B.'}, {'speaker': 'MS.   SEGER.', 'text': 'Alternative B straight.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Rice.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'I will join the landslide.Alternative B, no nuances.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Boykin.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': 'My view is the same, ""B.""'}]",yes,yes,,,
53,54,19890328_253_2,MR. BOYKIN.,"""Looking at the District, our recent performance and the near-term prospects for our economy continue to improve.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""That's not a big deal. A small increase, on that order of magnitude, is built into what we have and if you parse that out among all the producers-- ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'If there are no further questions for Messrs. Prell or Truman, shall we open our tour de table? Who would like to start? President Boykin. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Yes, but they are still really selling at spot.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""But they have some long-term contracts.It depends on how those contracts are written; that's right.It works in that direction.One of the favorable factors has been the supply disruptions in Qatar; that has tightened the supply side.And in some sense there has been a spillover to the price the Saudis are getting.We have a small step-up in production in the second half of the year built into this.Our guess is that they decided to accept the prices coming down on the assumption that there will be a modest increase--a couple hundred thousand barrels a day--in OPEC production in general in the second half of the year.That's not a big deal.A small increase, on that order of magnitude, is built into what we have and if you parse that out among all the producers--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'If there are no further questions for Messrs. Prell or Truman, shall we open our tour de table?Who would like to start?President Boykin.'}]",no,,,,
54,55,20030129_353_6,MS. BIES.,"""While jobs are declining, personal income continues to grow at a modest pace.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. SANTOMERO.', 'text': 'On balance, I see little reason to change our policy stance at this meeting. I do have some concern, though, that when the fourth-quarter GDP numbers are released and activity is shown to be relatively weak, the public reaction may not be all that favorable. Perhaps we should be prepared to address this in our statement or at least be cognizant of it when those numbers come out. Thank you. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Bies. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. SANTOMERO.', 'text': ""This time I hope that the Board staff is correct and we are not.I think it's important to restate what others have said: There are significant risks.This time the risks are on the upside and the downside.The largest downside risk is geopolitical, and I'll spend no more time on that.But there are also upside risks.The most obvious is dissipation of the geopolitical uncertainty, as has already been mentioned.In addition, there may be significantly more stimulus in the tax package.Frankly, I'm not convinced of that for some of the reasons that Governor Olson indicated.That is in fact a very uncertain event.On balance, I see little reason to change our policy stance at this meeting.I do have some concern, though, that when the fourth-quarter GDP numbers are released and activity is shown to be relatively weak, the public reaction may not be all that favorable.Perhaps we should be prepared to address this in our statement or at least be cognizant of it when those numbers come out.Thank you.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Bies.'}]",no,,,,
55,56,19921117_42_9,MR. PARRY.,"""The weakness that we're seeing in California certainly is a concern.""","Mr. Chairman, conditions in the Twelfth District are little changed from our last meeting, with continued weakness in California offsetting modest growth in the other District states. District-wide employment in September fell at a 1.1 percent annual rate, led by weakness in California. California employment by itself fell at a 3.8 percent annual rate in September and 2.1 percent in October; that brings the state's employment to a new cyclical low. I might also point out that there's a consensus among forecasters that the actual level of employment is 100,000 less than is being reported in the survey. Last year there was a similar view that employment was being exaggerated, and revised figures certainly confirmed that. Outside of California, District employment expanded at a 3.3 percent annual rate in September. The contacts we have in Alaska, Arizona, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon and Utah report fairly favorable conditions. But California is weak; in Washington conditions are flat due to production cutbacks in aerospace; and Hawaii is affected by slumping tourism. The weakness that we're seeing in California certainly is a concern. Already announced cutbacks in aerospace, defense, and state and local governments, together with an overhang in commercial real estate, have led forecasters to project that we're going to see continued job losses in the state of California through the end of 1993. This weak projected economic performance threatens California with yet another state budget shortfall of at least $4 billion through the end of the next fiscal year, which is 1993-94. Reflecting this ongoing weakness, lending continued to decline in October at large District banks. Commercial, consumer, and real estate loan volumes are down from their year-earlier levels. Turning to the national economy, our outlook is similar to that of the Greenbook if we assume no change in monetary policy through the end of that period. The modest 2-1/4 percent growth that we anticipate, again assuming no further easing, is down 1/2 percent from what we expected at the time of the October meeting. That's mainly a result of the higher value of the dollar and prospects for slower economic growth abroad. Consistent with sluggish growth in output, we expect to see only small declines in the unemployment rate over the next year or so and thus continued downward pressure on underlying inflation. Our view is that the CPI will come in at around 2-3/4 percent in '93 and a bit lower than that in '94. Thank you.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""In terms of your second question, if in fact this does evolve in a way that suggests there are questions as to GM's viability, it's only a matter of time until the market will pick that up and make the rollover of paper a very difficult issue. So, this is a very significant concern in more than just a District context. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'Between GM and GMAC what do they have--something like $20 billion of commercial paper outstanding? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""I don't know if it is that large; it is huge. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""Jerry, on the first question, there are frankly questions of viability about GM; that has been true not just recently but going back a few months.I talked to just felt that the troubles were much bigger than were fully understood by the market, and this goes back three or four months.So, everything that has come out tends to confirm what he was saying.The most recent numbers [coming out] in the last few days are really very much on the serious side.So, that is certainly an open question.In terms of your second question, if in fact this does evolve in a way that suggests there are questions as to GM's viability, it's only a matter of time until the market will pick that up and make the rollover of paper a very difficult issue.So, this is a very significant concern in more than just a District context.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'Between GM and GMAC what do they have--something like $20 billion of commercial paper outstanding?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""I don't know if it is that large; it is huge.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry.'}]",yes,,,,
56,57,19990203_69_2,MR. JORDAN.,"""Under what circumstances would we wind up having in the portfolio euro-denominated obligations of other taxing authorities besides the Germans?""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'The real issue came in the first week when the German payment system did not seem to be up to the volume, which is curious because the volume was much reduced. The Germans had put through some changes in their own domestic payment system simultaneously with the shifted target. That taxed the capacity of the German payment system and there were some bottlenecks. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'The portfolio now has euro-denominated deposits at the Bundesbank, euro-denominated German government securities, and euro-denominated deposits at the BIS? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'Yes, and euro-denominated repo agreements with our counterparties, with Deutsche Bank as our custodian. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Did you check to see if it worked?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'Yes.I meant to cover that.I did say that our conversion went quite well; maybe I covered that too quickly.We were among those who experienced some of the glitches in the new European payment system.We were holding our breath sometimes to make sure we did not fail on our delivery of euros while waiting for the queue to work through, but we avoided any problems with that.The real issue came in the first week when the German payment system did not seem to be up to the volume, which is curious because the volume was much reduced.The Germans had put through some changes in their own domestic payment system simultaneously with the shifted target.That taxed the capacity of the German payment system and there were some bottlenecks.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'The portfolio now has euro-denominated deposits at the Bundesbank, euro-denominated German government securities, and euro-denominated deposits at the BIS?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'Yes, and euro-denominated repo agreements with our counterparties, with Deutsche Bank as our custodian.'}]",no,,,,
57,58,20080318_128_5,CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.,"""President Plosser made the correct point that we need to think about the level of the funds rate.""","Any other questions for Brian? With your indulgence, it has been a very volatile period with a lot of changes in views. We're also a little short of time. I think it might be more focused if I gave a proposal and had people react to it. President Plosser made the correct point that we need to think about the level of the funds rate. Where should it be? I think it needs to be lower, frankly. In our last meeting, at 3 percent, many of us viewed that as about neutral without much insurance. Since then we've seen, I believe, a much stronger indication of recession, an increase in downside risks. When I spoke about the downside risks in the Congress and in speeches, I cited three categories of risks: housing, finance, and labor markets. All of those have transpired in that direction. So I do think we have to respond effectively against that. For that reason I would recommend the 75 basis point reduction. I recognize the concerns people have, and I have them myself, about both inflation and the dollar. So I would make two comments regarding that. First, we will be even now disappointing the market somewhat. A more aggressive ease is built in. Second, as Brian already indicated, in a number of places in alternative A, which I am proposing, we have ratcheted up the language about inflation, notably in paragraph 3, where we talk about it being elevated and inflation expectations, and in the last sentence, where we reinstitute price stability and clarify what our dual mandate is. Minor comments: I'm open to anything, but I point out that in paragraph 3 we added the list of explanations for why inflation may moderate. We didn't have that last time. If people are uncomfortable with that, we can take that out. The other thing we added in paragraph 4 was the comment about market liquidity measures. I think that's useful. It shows that we're doing other things. It creates a sense that there's more going on besides monetary policy. But again, if people have strong objections, I have no strong feelings about that. In addition, my recommendation would include maintaining the discount rate difference of 1/4 percentage point that we established on Sunday. So that's where I would be. Why don't we now have a rapid go-round? President Hoenig.","[{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': ""I guess I was thinking more along the marginal change that we would make should the factors be more successful than we're currently anticipating them to be. That would probably cause us to edge up our path of the fed funds rate to account for that. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. EVANS.', 'text': 'Okay. Got it. Thanks. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': 'We did a little more in this forecast to account for what we perceived to be an increase in financial stress.But the bigger factor in marking down our forecasts significantly this year was a reading that we were switching from a sense of a slow-growth scenario and moving into something like a more nonlinear downturn of the economy.That motivated the more significant portion of the downward movement that we had in the equilibrium real interest rate here.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Okay.President Evans.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. EVANS.', 'text': ""Well, I just want to clarify this because I didn't get the answer I was expecting.I don't think I understood exactly the question about financial stress because I thought the question was whether we would have to do more with the funds rate to achieve what was in the Greenbook.Did you mark down your outlook from the Greenbook?I don't think I understood.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': ""I guess I was thinking more along the marginal change that we would make should the factors be more successful than we're currently anticipating them to be.That would probably cause us to edge up our path of the fed funds rate to account for that.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. EVANS.', 'text': 'Okay.Got it.Thanks.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,utterance
58,59,19921117_163_17,MR. BOEHNE.,"""We've done a study, we have some good reasons, and we can explain our action in a letter.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': ""I think we are going to have to cut the range and I would favor a cut of a full point. Though it's strictly a judgmental issue, my feeling is that it's probably better to do it in February for two reasons. One is that we're going to have more of an opportunity to explain it fully at that time. The other is that if we really believe the general tone of the meeting, which is that the economy is going to be a fair bit better in February than it is right now, it's better to make [the reduction in the range] in that context. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': ""But a cut now also [may help us] get M2 growth within its range; after all, we've said that we're going to try to [have M2 growth] come within that range.To announce a cut now in the ranges without having done something to try to bring growth up into the range this year would look as if we were just making an excuse for why we didn't do that.I think we are going to have to cut the range and I would favor a cut of a full point.Though it's strictly a judgmental issue, my feeling is that it's probably better to do it in February for two reasons.One is that we're going to have more of an opportunity to explain it fully at that time.The other is that if we really believe the general tone of the meeting, which is that the economy is going to be a fair bit better in February than it is right now, it's better to make [the reduction in the range] in that context.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne.'}]",no,,,,
59,60,19931221_310_3,MR. MELZER.,"""I do agree with what Susan was saying before--that this will be the basis for singling out individuals and criticizing them and it won't be the end of it.""","Okay. Then just one final observation: I personally think we need to do this. I do agree with what Susan was saying before--that this will be the basis for singling out individuals and criticizing them and it won't be the end of it. I think we have to try it but, just following Tom's suggestion, we need to be prepared to defend statements that are going to be taken out of context in connection with this.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""I suppose, in effect, by releasing this we're waiving attorney/client privilege in some sense. Can that be done on a case-by-case basis without setting any precedent with respect to any future legal advice the Committee might get? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MATTINGLY.', 'text': ""Yes, it can. But you're giving up your right to keep all of that confidential when you let Henry Gonzalez look at it. On this particular matter, you're correct. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MATTINGLY.', 'text': 'That does not mean that you have to grant access to all other conversations.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'So there is a legal basis.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MATTINGLY.', 'text': 'I believe there is, yes.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""Okay.I just would be inclined in whatever letter you send back to spell out the precedent issue very clearly.In other words, say that we don't view this as precedent-setting with respect to providing tapes and transcripts.I think that would be a helpful part of the letter.Another legal question: As I recall that call, Virgil, you started it off by giving us legal advice with respect to the new Freedom of Information Act interpretations.I suppose, in effect, by releasing this we're waiving attorney/client privilege in some sense.Can that be done on a case-by-case basis without setting any precedent with respect to any future legal advice the Committee might get?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MATTINGLY.', 'text': ""Yes, it can.But you're giving up your right to keep all of that confidential when you let Henry Gonzalez look at it.On this particular matter, you're correct.""}]",yes,no,,,
60,61,19771220_57_1,MR. O'CONNELL.,"""I believe that would be fairly read as a denial of the request for the information sought.""",I believe that would be fairly read as a denial of the request for the information sought.,"[{'speaker': ""MR. O'CONNELL."", 'text': 'But the agency could, if it wished, rely on that, subject to a push of this petitioned party to the court, if you will, [who would claim] that ""10 days wasn\'t necessary, and I have filed suit now to get an earlier response."" '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Well, just to explore, what might be done under the law? Suppose that at the end of 10 days the response is negative. Or to be more accurate, the response is such that, by such and such a date, the exposure will be made--it will not be made within the 10-day period, but somewhat later than that. Suppose that is the response on the 10th day. '}]","[{'speaker': ""MR. O'CONNELL."", 'text': 'Under the statute, Mr. Chairman, I believe a maximum of 10 days for the initial answer to such a request.The statute calls and contemplates for a period--but that\'s a maximum period, 10 days.That 10 days contemplates the necessary search of information and compilation of the data.With respect to the subject of your inquiry, someone asking for identification of the votes, knows as a matter of judgment that 10 days isn\'t required.But the agency could, if it wished, rely on that, subject to a push of this petitioned party to the court, if you will, [who would claim] that ""10 days wasn\'t necessary, and I have filed suit now to get an earlier response.""'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Well, just to explore, what might be done under the law?Suppose that at the end of 10 days the response is negative.Or to be more accurate, the response is such that, by such and such a date, the exposure will be made--it will not be made within the 10-day period, but somewhat later than that.Suppose that is the response on the 10th day.'}]",yes,no,,,
61,62,19950706_176_13,MR. LINDSEY.,"""This, of course, is very, very early in the process.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': ""If we add a 3 percent inflation factor, we really are cutting real spending by something on the order of $37 billion as opposed to $21 billion, and that is before we get to the Medicare adjustments. The second observation I would make--we have a small sample of only five subcommittees on the table here--is that four of the five subcommittees have cut more than their 602B allocations. These are appropriations subcommittees that refer back to the Appropriations Committee. I can't remember this ever happening before. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""The reason you don't remember is that it has not happened. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': ""The $22 billion figure roughly contrasts with the discretionary number of $18 billion that is in the Greenbook.The fact that these cuts are from a nominal level leads me to make some adjustment to see just how much contraction is occuring.If we thought that real spending should be roughly constant next year, we would need to have an idea of GDP in 1996 and we would at least want to assume some kind of constancy in real spending and perhaps a little above that.If we add a 3 percent inflation factor, we really are cutting real spending by something on the order of $37 billion as opposed to $21 billion, and that is before we get to the Medicare adjustments.The second observation I would make--we have a small sample of only five subcommittees on the table here--is that four of the five subcommittees have cut more than their 602B allocations.These are appropriations subcommittees that refer back to the Appropriations Committee.I can't remember this ever happening before.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""The reason you don't remember is that it has not happened.""}]",no,,,,
62,63,19891219_843_2,MR. JOHNSON.,"""[in the directive language] during that weakness?""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': ""[This] might help Manley a little. I think M2 ran for almost two quarters earlier this year at the bottom end of, if not outside, the range; I can't remember exactly. And I don't think the market overreacted to that in the sense that we were going to force the aggregates back in at the same time we were raising interest rates. It was clear we weren't intending to do it. I think they had the aggregates back a little further even than we did. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""To the extent that we can wean ourselves from moving these things around and having people draw up charts showing which one we put first, second, third, and fourth the better off we're going to be, I think.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I would agree with that.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'If we just leave them alone people will ignore them over time and I think they should.I think the rest of the policy record captures the sense of the discussion.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': 'I would agree with that if we get the order right.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'The second point is we--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I really think I'm going to request that we do have a recorded vote because I think it will be a precedent in history for--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'That just eliminated it.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': ""[This] might help Manley a little.I think M2 ran for almost two quarters earlier this year at the bottom end of, if not outside, the range; I can't remember exactly.And I don't think the market overreacted to that in the sense that we were going to force the aggregates back in at the same time we were raising interest rates.It was clear we weren't intending to do it.I think they had the aggregates back a little further even than we did.""}]",no,,,,
63,64,19980331_208_10,MR. BERNARD.,"""Yes""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""We have been butchering the English language in this directive for years, but let's not change it just yet. Why don't you bring that up at a later meeting? [Laughter] ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': 'On that advice, I vote ""yes."" [Laughter] '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'The wording of the operational paragraph is on page 14 of the Bluebook: ""In the implementation of policy for the immediate future, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with maintaining a federal funds rate at an average of around 5-1/2 percent.In the context of the Committee\'s long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful consideration to economic, financial, and monetary developments, a somewhat higher federal funds rate would or a slightly lower federal funds rate might be acceptable in the intermeeting period.The contemplated reserve conditions are expected to be consistent with considerable moderation in the growth of M2 and M3 over coming months.""'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Call the roll.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'Chairman Greenspan YesVice Chairman McDonough Yes Governor FergusonYes Governor Gramlich'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': 'Do we have to have the ""slightly lower"" phrase?Am I out of order?[Laughter]'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'That is the conventional rhetoric.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': 'Yes, but--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""We have been butchering the English language in this directive for years, but let's not change it just yet.Why don't you bring that up at a later meeting?[Laughter]""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': 'On that advice, I vote ""yes.""[Laughter]'}]",ambiguous,,,,
64,65,19801021_442_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""It won't affect the borrowings.""",It won't affect the borrowings.,"[{'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""When it was running $300 or $400 or $500 million above last month, yes, we did make adjustments then. But at $100 million above, we wouldn't be inclined to make such an adjustment. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': ""There are two other dimensions to what you're discussing on borrowed reserves. One is that on Friday, if the rates don't break this week, I suspect you're going to get a number of Reserve Banks recommending an increase in the discount rate, which would obviously affect the borrowings. The other thing is that we put out a revision in Regulation A. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'If it literally came out along the ""B"" path or a little higher, so long as that persisted the borrowing levels would be edging up.But I would describe it as an edging up rather than a dramatic change.If it came in way above [$1.3 billion], then we would have a different situation.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'But you would not lower the nonborrowed target under that?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""We have not typically done that unless we're considerably above [the path].When it was running $300 or $400 or $500 million above last month, yes, we did make adjustments then.But at $100 million above, we wouldn't be inclined to make such an adjustment.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': ""There are two other dimensions to what you're discussing on borrowed reserves.One is that on Friday, if the rates don't break this week, I suspect you're going to get a number of Reserve Banks recommending an increase in the discount rate, which would obviously affect the borrowings.The other thing is that we put out a revision in Regulation A.""}]",no,,,,
65,66,19840327_247_3,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Has it got the document attached?""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'We have a requirement for what is eligible for our purchase but that goes to the market acceptability or tradability of the name. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'The more I hear, the more I think we ought to get rid of it. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'I do too. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'As far as the regulatory aspect, the New York Reserve Bank could still exercise some surveillance over the market even though we were not operating in acceptances as RPs. Is that dependent upon-- '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""We say we don't need it for open market operations and we say the market is strong on its own and therefore--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'The market has matured.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""We don't use this now for any surveillance purposes or any that I can understand.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""It's not used in a significant way.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'If we stop using it for repurchase agreements, could we drop that distinction between eligible and ineligible now?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""I think that's a distinction that still applies for re-discount at the discount window, and relief from reserve requirements would still hinge on that aspect.I don't think that would be affected.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""You haven't made that distinction in your operations, have you?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'No.We have a requirement for what is eligible for our purchase but that goes to the market acceptability or tradability of the name.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'The more I hear, the more I think we ought to get rid of it.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'I do too.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'As far as the regulatory aspect, the New York Reserve Bank could still exercise some surveillance over the market even though we were not operating in acceptances as RPs.Is that dependent upon--'}]",no,,,,
66,67,19770215_262_7,MR. KIMBREL.,"""I think that would serve us better for this immediate period.""","Mr. Chairman, I think we share the same concern for the delicate uneasiness and all of the reasons you suggest, but I did detect that you referred to the weather-induced distortions that we are experiencing. And I think they, too, are contributing to that uneasiness. I think this caution that's been generated has probably pushed [backward] some of the capital investment commitments for two or three months. I don't think we need to anticipate any of this in our action. I personally would like to see more definitive developments both in the fiscal area and in the business community before we move. I guess I have a natural inclination to rather anticipate some movement in the federal funds rate, and would be naturally inclined to spread that from a 4-1/4 to 5-1/4, but I guess my restraint is more in the area of trying to maintain some stability at this particular moment. I think that would serve us better for this immediate period. So I would opt for alternative B exactly as is written, and the specification.","[{'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""I think the Committee's posture right now ought to be one of a rather cautious stability. And, it seems, that is an appropriate position for the uncertainties of the economy ahead, until we see exactly what kind of a fiscal policy and impact these various things have had over the past few months. So I would stay with B with a federal funds rate of 4-1/4 to 5. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Coldwell. Mr. Kimbrel now, please. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""I think the interest rate structure is generally satisfactory for growth over this near-term period, and monetary aggregates seem to be growing at a reasonably satisfactory pace, given the liquidity in the economy.I wouldn't resist much of an increase if we came down to the rebate, but that's a down-the-road decision.I might want to change my mind later on.Right now, I would resist too much of an increase in the fundamental growth here.I do have a feeling that we may end up with some international pressures which might impact upon our decisions in the near-term future, in the next few months.I think the Committee's posture right now ought to be one of a rather cautious stability.And, it seems, that is an appropriate position for the uncertainties of the economy ahead, until we see exactly what kind of a fiscal policy and impact these various things have had over the past few months.So I would stay with B with a federal funds rate of 4-1/4 to 5.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Coldwell.Mr. Kimbrel now, please.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,-200+ tokens
67,68,19831220_180_3,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""You don't have to address it now unless you want to.""","I might ask Mr. Kichline to comment on the point Mr. Corrigan made earlier, which is the inverse of this profits point. Is it true that labor costs are going up much less--or historically very little--compared to prices at this stage? You don't have to address it now unless you want to. We'll turn to Governor Partee.","[{'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': ""The reasons for that, obviously, are the deficit, the increase in private credit demands, and the falling off of capital inflows. All of these possibilities would operate toward putting upward pressure on interest rates. And if that happens, I think the economy will be very vulnerable and possibly in danger of some damage from that development. I don't, however, expect rates to increase substantially, although I recognize that as a possibility that could affect the forecast, as I pointed out. On balance, I would say that the probability is about 50 percent on being able to maintain current levels of interest rates; and if we're able to do that, I think [the economy] will be in good shape. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': ""Along with the vulnerabilities listed by Governor Wallich, I would simply emphasize, as others have pointed out, that the major vulnerability is higher interest rates than we now expect--that is, higher than in the forecast.A number of people have pointed to that, and I think there is possibly a real danger of interest rates being substantially higher than they are now forecast.The reasons for that, obviously, are the deficit, the increase in private credit demands, and the falling off of capital inflows.All of these possibilities would operate toward putting upward pressure on interest rates.And if that happens, I think the economy will be very vulnerable and possibly in danger of some damage from that development.I don't, however, expect rates to increase substantially, although I recognize that as a possibility that could affect the forecast, as I pointed out.On balance, I would say that the probability is about 50 percent on being able to maintain current levels of interest rates; and if we're able to do that, I think [the economy] will be in good shape.""}]",no,,,,
68,69,19800205_286_10,MR. BALLES.,"""And that, by the same reasoning, translates into a surplus of $12 billion in 1981.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I would like first to turn to page 3 of this package of charts and ask a question to the staff and then make a comment. On the calculation of the high employment budget you show for 1980 and 1981, Jim: These are your calculations, I assume, rather than the official figures set forth by the Administration? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""They're our calculations but we use the same procedure, which has been revised. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""In other words, it's benchmarked at a 5.1 percent unemployment rate? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Correct. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""[We need to] consider the fact that we may settle on a 4-1/2, 5, or 5-1/2 percent rate of money growth and it's not going to have a great deal of influence over the next nine months.However, at midyear if we have unemployment rates of 7-1/2 or 8-1/2 percent, we must be prepared to change our policy at that point.I don't want to go down the line item by item because I don't have a great quarrel with [the forecast], but I do urge that we not give up the flexibility.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Balles.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I would like first to turn to page 3 of this package of charts and ask a question to the staff and then make a comment.On the calculation of the high employment budget you show for 1980 and 1981, Jim: These are your calculations, I assume, rather than the official figures set forth by the Administration?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""They're our calculations but we use the same procedure, which has been revised.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""In other words, it's benchmarked at a 5.1 percent unemployment rate?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Correct.'}]",no,,,,
69,70,20010627_34_5,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""Indeed, that's obviously the case if we listen to what he's doing and how he's calculating it.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': 'What has happened, obviously, is that our investment forecast has been off by a ton over the past year. We moved to this technique probably just at the time of our peak forecast of investment and have been revising it down since then. So I think Jeff is entirely fair to present this chart because it indeed reflects our record. On the other hand, I don\'t think it necessarily requires us to put an ""eyes only"" over it and never show it to anybody. In fact, I feel quite comfortable explaining it and defending this pattern of errors to the Committee or to people outside the Committee as well. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': 'While proving more variable, like our forecast, it may turn out to be less biased than an approach that looks simply at a linear filter of productivity performance.So I think the jury is still out.Obviously, we felt in some sense that it was very difficult to present a forecast to the FOMC time after time in which an investment forecast implied something about the pace of capital deepening but we then divorced that forecast from our estimates of structural productivity.That was the concern that led us in the direction of trying to tie those concepts closer together.What has happened, obviously, is that our investment forecast has been off by a ton over the past year.We moved to this technique probably just at the time of our peak forecast of investment and have been revising it down since then.So I think Jeff is entirely fair to present this chart because it indeed reflects our record.On the other hand, I don\'t think it necessarily requires us to put an ""eyes only"" over it and never show it to anybody.In fact, I feel quite comfortable explaining it and defending this pattern of errors to the Committee or to people outside the Committee as well.'}]",no,,,,
70,71,19930921_95_10,MR. HOENIG.,"""[Laughter] I'm only half kidding!""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': ""That may be evidence of other things as well, but there's no doubt that our actions recently have aided the further decline in long rates. And I hope we will do whatever we need to do going forward to maintain and extend that progress. Thank you. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Thank you. President Hoenig. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': ""Activity undoubtedly will continue to be restrained going forward by the forthcoming tax increases, employer concern about the cost implications of health care reform, and the economic weakness in many of our major export markets.But I still think on balance that there's a better than even chance that we will get a little more growth than the 2.3 percent rate projected by the Greenbook for the second half of the year.One final point, if I may: In my view the most significant development by far since the last meeting is the further decline in long-term rates.One of our major objectives in policy in recent years, as you all know, has been to help bring long-term interest rates down further by raising the credibility of our efforts to achieve price stability over time.I think the much greater than expected declines in long rates recently are evidence that that strategy is working over time.That may be evidence of other things as well, but there's no doubt that our actions recently have aided the further decline in long rates.And I hope we will do whatever we need to do going forward to maintain and extend that progress.Thank you.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Thank you.President Hoenig.'}]",no,,,,
71,72,19961113_153_2,MR. BERNARD.,"""In the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful consideration to economic, financial, and monetary developments, somewhat greater reserve restraint would or slightly lesser reserve restraint might be acceptable in the intermeeting period.""","I will be reading from page 12 in the Bluebook: ""In the implementation of policy for the immediate future, the Committee seeks to maintain the existing degree of pressure on reserve positions. In the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful consideration to economic, financial, and monetary developments, somewhat greater reserve restraint would or slightly lesser reserve restraint might be acceptable in the intermeeting period. The contemplated reserve conditions are expected to be consistent with moderate growth in M2 and relatively strong expansion in M3 over coming months.""","[{'speaker': 'MR. MEYER.', 'text': 'Indeed, given that the recent data suggest that the risks have become more balanced, I am more comfortable supporting a proposal of unchanged policy than I was at the last meeting. I still think the major risk is that inflation will begin to rise over the next year. An asymmetric directive reminds us of the importance of remaining vigilant in the face of this risk, and I therefore support your proposal to retain the current policy posture. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Thank you. Would you read the directive which encompasses that? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'It would take, for example, two to three quarters of growth in the 1-1/2 to 2 percent range just to get the unemployment rate moving back toward 5-1/2 percent, which arguably means no more acceleration in pressures on resources and inflation.So, I think that being asymmetric is exactly the right thing to do, and frankly I think we are going to be there for quite a while because I do not see any signs that we are going to be removing inflation pressures in the economy very quickly.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Finally, Governor Meyer.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MEYER.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation for no change in policy.Indeed, given that the recent data suggest that the risks have become more balanced, I am more comfortable supporting a proposal of unchanged policy than I was at the last meeting.I still think the major risk is that inflation will begin to rise over the next year.An asymmetric directive reminds us of the importance of remaining vigilant in the face of this risk, and I therefore support your proposal to retain the current policy posture.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Thank you.Would you read the directive which encompasses that?'}]",yes,yes,sentence,,
72,73,19860819_489_1,MR. PARRY.,"""Isn't one possibility just to maintain the $300 million and when a discount rate change occurs, if it does, to revisit the issue of reserves at that time?""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""You're giving up the $400 million possibility if you vote for that. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""What you're really saying is that there's not a whole lot of difference between $300 million borrowing and no discount rate cut and $300 million borrowing with a 1/2 point cut. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""Well, there's a 50 percentage point drop in the funds rate, right? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""I know. I'm just saying that you would have to believe that that margin didn't mean a lot. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'Leave it at $300 million with the discount rate cut or not.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""I would be happy with that if there were a call at the time.Wouldn't it raise the question as to what to do with the borrowing level at that time?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'No.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""No, it's saying that you're willing to accept $300 million on borrowing regardless of what the discount rate--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""It's basically shifting the decision of the discount rate.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""Yes, but the fact is that, in effect, it is the same thing given the high degree of probability of a discount cut happening.I don't think--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""You're giving up the $400 million possibility if you vote for that.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""What you're really saying is that there's not a whole lot of difference between $300 million borrowing and no discount rate cut and $300 million borrowing with a 1/2 point cut.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""Well, there's a 50 percentage point drop in the funds rate, right?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""I know.I'm just saying that you would have to believe that that margin didn't mean a lot.""}]",no,,,,
73,74,20080916_125_15,MR. STERN.,"""As far as language is concerned with regard to B, I would be inclined to give more prominence to financial issues.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Well, even before the events of the last several days, I thought that this was the most severe financial crisis, certainly, that I have seen in my career. And the last several days--as well as some of Bill's comments about possible contagion spreading from breaking the buck and so on and so forth--have only heightened that conviction and my concern about where we are. So I think it is fair to say that the headwinds confronting the economy have intensified even further. It is difficult to comment on the degree or the duration, but I think we know the direction. As far as the near-term economic outlook is concerned, I wasn't terribly optimistic about the next two or three quarters to begin with. If I were going to prepare a new forecast at this point--or even had I prepared one last week--I probably would mark it down a bit. But, of course, there is not much we can do about that at this stage. As far as the inflation outlook is concerned, I have thought that, late in this year and into next year, inflation would start to abate, and recent developments perhaps heighten my conviction about that. But I will agree that it is still an open issue. So it seems to me that all of this suggests that the outlook, at least in terms of financial conditions and the economy in the near term, has clearly deteriorated. The inflation outlook, if anything, has perhaps improved a notch, or at least the outlook that I had earlier is a little more solid. Given the lags in policy, it doesn't seem that there is a heck of a lot we can do about current circumstances, and we have already tried to address the financial turmoil. So I would favor alternative B as a policy matter. As far as language is concerned with regard to B, I would be inclined to give more prominence to financial issues. I think you could do that maybe by reversing the first two sentences in paragraph 2. You would have to change the transitions, of course. I would say that if we wanted to change policy at this meeting--and that is not my preference--I would do it by 1/2 percentage point, and I would think that the rationale would be psychological reasons. Again, I don't think we are going to have a big effect on the near-term performance of the economy. But if we think psychology in the marketplace is sufficiently bad or that there is sufficient concern that the Federal Reserve somehow doesn't quite get it--I would think that all our actions cumulatively, including the actions over the weekend, should not make that a grave concern--then I think we would want to do more than 1/4 percentage point. Thank you.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PLOSSER.', 'text': 'At the same time, I do not perceive an immediate threat to the unanchoring of expectations, so I can accept keeping the funds rate at an unchanged level at this meeting. But at some point, before the unemployment rate begins to improve substantially, I believe this Committee will need to raise rates in order to deliver on our inflation objectives. Regarding language, I can live with the language in alternative B. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Thank you. President Stern. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PLOSSER.', 'text': 'There is just way too much volatility and dust blowing around to make such snap judgments on monetary policy.We have been aggressive with our liquidity provisions, and we will continue to be so, and I support that.Stability coming from monetary policy is an important attribute, and I think we have an opportunity to provide some stability here.However, I am uncomfortable with the current Greenbook baseline path that has the funds rate remaining unchanged well into the second half of next year.In my view, that will not deliver an acceptable path of inflation outcome over the medium term.At the same time, I do not perceive an immediate threat to the unanchoring of expectations, so I can accept keeping the funds rate at an unchanged level at this meeting.But at some point, before the unemployment rate begins to improve substantially, I believe this Committee will need to raise rates in order to deliver on our inflation objectives.Regarding language, I can live with the language in alternative B. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Thank you.President Stern.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,
74,75,19770118_123_1,MR. O'CONNELL.,"""There has to be a publication within a framework of 30 days for comment, then a review of the comments and a simultaneous oversight review by the Administrative Conference of the United States under the terms of the statute.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'The suit might still be brought. '}, {'speaker': ""MR. O'CONNELL."", 'text': 'It could. Certainly, Mr. Chairman. Yes? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'When does the statute require that the regulation be published by an agency? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': ""If the Congress were to support the position that you've just outlined, isn't it still possible that suit can be filed by some people who aren't happy with that and take it to the courts?Or is that not a--""}, {'speaker': ""MR. O'CONNELL."", 'text': ""May I address that, Mr. Chairman?It's a very good and realistic possibility that, at the time the Board of Governors issues its proposed regulations under Sunshine, which will be forthcoming within a very short period now to meet the March 1 deadline, that publication of those regulations and the absence of similar regulations on the part of this Committee could well draw an inquiry, then a demand, then a lawsuit, either to compel the issuance of regulations, as if this Committee were covered, or a suit to declare that the Committee is covered.Yes.And at a point in time the Chairman may perhaps wish to discuss a possible publication by this Committee of a document paralleling a regulation that would offset such a desire on the part of someone who would otherwise bring suit.Yes.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'The suit might still be brought.'}, {'speaker': ""MR. O'CONNELL."", 'text': 'It could.Certainly, Mr. Chairman.Yes?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'When does the statute require that the regulation be published by an agency?'}]",no,,,,
75,76,19990518_171_1,MR. MOSKOW.,"""Mr. Chairman, I agree with your recommendations of an asymmetric tilt and an immediate announcement.""","Mr. Chairman, I agree with your recommendations of an asymmetric tilt and an immediate announcement. I am concerned about the high level of aggregate demand and the related outlook for inflation. It is important that we show we are concerned about inflation and are ready to take action. In my view, this step will help us to maintain our credibility. There were a couple of considerations mentioned by Don Kohn that I thought were important. He said if we change the tilt we should announce it if we think: (1) it is a significant change in our thinking; and (2) if the absence of this step would mislead the public. My assessment is that the current situation fits both of those criteria. So, I think it is important that we change the tilt and announce it right away.","[{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': 'I think we are now at about the outer time limit of being able to make a credible case that we are simply undoing some of the policy easing from last fall. The more distant in time that becomes, the less credible it will be to appeal to that as a way of providing some cap on market expectations of where this tightening process might take us. But if we have some bad luck on some of the inflation numbers coming in over the next few months, I believe we will find it difficult to manage under those circumstances. And that is why I believe it would be better to get ahead of the curve now. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Moskow. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': ""Some people have expressed the hope that we won't have to move, but for those of us who believe that some tightening is going to be required, I think we need to have some idea of how much that is going to be.That to me is important because once we are seen to be in motion it is possible that the markets will move long-term interest rates higher than we might consider justified.I think we are now at about the outer time limit of being able to make a credible case that we are simply undoing some of the policy easing from last fall.The more distant in time that becomes, the less credible it will be to appeal to that as a way of providing some cap on market expectations of where this tightening process might take us.But if we have some bad luck on some of the inflation numbers coming in over the next few months, I believe we will find it difficult to manage under those circumstances.And that is why I believe it would be better to get ahead of the curve now.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Moskow.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,entailment,utterance
76,77,19890822_286_3,MR. JOHNSON.,"""There are plenty of countries that finance that quite easily as long as it's going for sustainable private-sector investment.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""However big it is, Ted, it's a lot smaller than what people thought it was earlier, I think. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""No, I don't think it's very much smaller. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""Well, it's smaller. So what I'm saying is that the market people see the financing requirements as less than they did before. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""In my judgment, if we have external debt of 40 percent of GNP we're in real trouble. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'If you play it out, the $100 billion current account deficit as a percent of GNP would, assuming a steady state and making all kinds of assumptions about the growth rates and so forth and so on, you get something like 40 percent of GNP.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': 'The debt or--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""Net external debt as a percent of GNP.Now if you're worried about the base--and that's a big number--my feeling is somehow that probably we're not going to get there.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': 'Something can change in the meantime.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Well, the crucial issue was the financing of that.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""That's right.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""Yes, that's what I was alluding to.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': '[Unintelligible.]'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""However big it is, Ted, it's a lot smaller than what people thought it was earlier, I think.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""No, I don't think it's very much smaller.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""Well, it's smaller.So what I'm saying is that the market people see the financing requirements as less than they did before.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""In my judgment, if we have external debt of 40 percent of GNP we're in real trouble.""}]",no,,,,
77,78,19821005_212_4,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""But that--""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'Not in any size [unintelligible]. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Not aggressively, no. We have this not terribly aggressive [unintelligible]. But I think the attitude to begin with is that there is a concern about this repetitive appreciation of the dollar and the dollar reaching levels that seem-- '}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Overdone. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Well, you're also assuming that we can have a stable level of recession in the world.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""That is true.[The world economy] doesn't have to keep going down all the time.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'The political implications of that, Henry, in some of these other countries may be much more severe than they are here.Put a country into a situation of restraint in order to correct its external debts and I think there is the potential for political upheaval.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'Just a related question: Has our governmental posture with respect to intervention in foreign exchange markets changed at all?I noticed we did some purchases yesterday, as Sam reported.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""It's a nice semantic question, I guess, of whether the attitude has changed or whether the circumstances have changed.We are certainly intervening.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': 'Any pressures?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'Not in any size [unintelligible].'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Not aggressively, no.We have this not terribly aggressive [unintelligible].But I think the attitude to begin with is that there is a concern about this repetitive appreciation of the dollar and the dollar reaching levels that seem--'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Overdone.'}]",no,,,,
78,79,19920701_276_3,MR. LINDSEY.,"""If in fact we go up [to Congress] and say that we are uncertain about where things are temporarily, that's one thing.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MS. PHILLIPS.', 'text': ""So, I'd rather see a bit of a conjunction in the message that on the one hand we're going to ease to try to deal with the economy but at the same time we are making a statement about inflation with respect to our longer-run objectives. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President McTeer. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MCTEER.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation primarily because I don't have a better idea. But I share Governor LaWare's sentiment that it's rather tricky trying to enhance our credibility by admitting that we don't know what is going on. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Lindsey. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. PHILLIPS.', 'text': ""It seems to me that if they were taken in conjunction, we'd have an opportunity to give two messages: A message about the strength of the economy and at the same time a signal with respect to our seriousness about inflation.As a citizen I also have some difficulty setting goals that we have no chance of meeting and that we're not intending to meet.In a managerial sense I've generally thought of goal-setting as something that makes a statement as to where one wants to go.I don't think goals are always set in an environment where one has full knowledge of all of the variables that make up what goes into those goals.So, I'd rather see a bit of a conjunction in the message that on the one hand we're going to ease to try to deal with the economy but at the same time we are making a statement about inflation with respect to our longer-run objectives.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President McTeer.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MCTEER.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation primarily because I don't have a better idea.But I share Governor LaWare's sentiment that it's rather tricky trying to enhance our credibility by admitting that we don't know what is going on.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Lindsey.'}]",no,,,,
79,80,19810203_292_2,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Each month during that autumn period all the projections said it was going to level off this month.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""Certainly one can look at some periods last year, like the August-September period, and say that we surely should have moved the path more. I think one can come to a different conclusion about last spring when the adjustments were on the other side. Some regular upward adjustments of the nonborrowed path might have helped us restore [monetary] growth more rapidly, but that could have sent us into even stronger growth by the third quarter and perhaps would have been unwise in retrospect. So, it's not clear that on all occasions more rapid adjustment would have been the answer. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""When the Committee indicated in the adoption of its objectives that, say, the objective was 4 percent but it wouldn't mind if that were a little faster or a little slower because of where we were coming out vis-a-vis the annual targets at that point, that was the conditioning factor in whether we pressed for more or less adjustment.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'If, in order to eliminate the problems we had last year, this Committee made a broad request of you to move it a little more quickly than you did last year, what would that mean in terms of what you would do starting next week?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""Well, I'd have to work that out with my colleague, Mr. Axilrod.In my own view, there is room for more of that kind of adjustment.Certainly one can look at some periods last year, like the August-September period, and say that we surely should have moved the path more.I think one can come to a different conclusion about last spring when the adjustments were on the other side.Some regular upward adjustments of the nonborrowed path might have helped us restore[monetary] growth more rapidly, but that could have sent us into even stronger growth by the third quarter and perhaps would have been unwise in retrospect.So, it's not clear that on all occasions more rapid adjustment would have been the answer.""}]",no,,,,
80,81,19851217_111_3,MR. BLACK.,"""I think you just put your finger on the key issue: What it is going to do from now on.""","No, I'm going to admit, Mr. Chairman, that it has been rather sick; I guess in retrospect I should have recognized that it was sick sooner than I did. But I don't think that's the key issue. I think you just put your finger on the key issue: What it is going to do from now on. We have been through a very unusual period. We have had a sharp decline in inflation and inflationary expectations; we have had extensive deregulation in the depository markets; and we may have had a decline in real interest rates. This certainly has done something to change it for the time being but it may be the case that in the future it will resume some of its former characteristics. It may be that it will proceed at a lower rate of secular growth. For example, if we have had an element of savings introduced into the NOW accounts and other checkable deposits, as I assume we have, and if this has brought about some improvement in cash management policies, as I think it has, then that may mean that all we are really going to have after we are through this period--which is largely behind us, I think--is a slower rate of growth in velocity on a secular basis. And if that is the case, then that can be as predictable as it has been in the past. The paper certainly implies that just because it's slower, it doesn't mean that it is worthless. The truth of the matter is, of course, no one knows for sure what it is going to do. So that suggests that we ought at least to weigh with caution the idea of throwing it out completely, because for long periods of time in the past it has been a rather useful thing to look at. I agree with Pres that a divisia index makes sense conceptually; I have always felt that that made more sense than anything else since obviously M1 is not the only thing that has some characteristic of money. There are a lot of things that do. And if we could somehow or another get the right weighted average, conceptually, that to me is the kind of thing that we want. Because if we don't target something of that sort, then all we have left is interest rates and that involves a necessity of saying what the appropriate level of interest rates is. That is very difficult for anybody to do and there is nothing in theory or in empirical studies that suggests what the appropriate level ought to be. But when we get to these divisia indexes I guess there is going to be a problem of data availability and also probably a problem of control of these--although I am hopeful that we can move in that general direction because that's what all my instincts tell me is really the best way for us to go.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I would agree with that. We'll see whether it has had a partial recovery; I'm not sure it will return to full health. We would have to have one heck of an increase in the economy in the next 3 to 6 months, which is contrary to the projections we have before us. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': '12 percent nominal. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Black can defend it. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'It just would be very difficult from a public relations and a political point of view ever to base--no, ever is too long--in the foreseeable future to base any kind of bitter pill on something like M1.We ought to continue the workand I think the suggestions that Pres made are worth pursuing.But I think we are dealing with something that is much bigger than just analytical work.Generally, I find that whereas a year ago people still asked about M1, it is not even asked about very much anymore.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Its burial may be a bit premature; it depends upon what happens to the economy over the next few months.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'I think it is on a sick bed.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I would agree with that.We'll see whether it has had a partial recovery; I'm not sure it will return to full health.We would have to have one heck of an increase in the economy in the next 3 to 6 months, which is contrary to the projections we have before us.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': '12 percent nominal.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Black can defend it.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,,
81,82,19980818_176_4,MR. MOSKOW.,"""So, I would have a slight preference for an asymmetric directive but I can support a symmetric directive.""","Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation for ""no change"" in policy. On the directive, it is a close call. I think that on balance the risks are still marginally on the upside. So, I would have a slight preference for an asymmetric directive but I can support a symmetric directive.","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'In that light, I still believe that the more costly mistake to correct will be the one that occurs if it turns out that excess demand growth does not in fact slow down. The analysis so carefully done and mathematically developed by von Neumann and Morgenstern basically says that we sometimes should base decisions on something that we not only do not believe and definitely do not want, but that is still the wisest course of action. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'I support a ""no change"" policy, and I think the risks have shifted sufficiently to justify a symmetric directive. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Moskow. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'I do not think we ought to blame him for the two-digit problem, but he did develop the basic architecture that goes into modern computers.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. RIVLIN.', 'text': 'I think we ought to blame Alan Greenspan!'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I learned it from John von Neumann!'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'The other thing on which we as economists place more emphasis was his work with Oskar Morgenstern on the calculus of decisionmaking using mathematical formulations of the minimax type.This helps us to identify which kinds of errors we are willing to make and which are the most difficult to correct.In that light, I still believe that the more costly mistake to correct will be the one that occurs if it turns out that excess demand growth does not in fact slow down.The analysis so carefully done and mathematically developed by von Neumann and Morgenstern basically says that we sometimes should base decisions on something that we not only do not believe and definitely do not want, but that is still the wisest course of action.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'I support a ""no change"" policy, and I think the risks have shifted sufficiently to justify a symmetric directive.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Moskow.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,utterance
82,83,19940706_68_6,MR. JORDAN.,"""But the dollar now is not consistent with the objective.""","Focusing on your reference to market participants, the magic number, and psychological aspects, I want to follow-up on something that Al Broaddus was referring to--the perception of success or failure. In a technical sense, it doesn't matter to me whether you sell $800 million of assets denominated in yen and deutschemarks and Joan Lovett rather mechanically buys assets denominated in U.S. dollars of the same amount in order to maintain the funds rate. So, what happens is that the Fed is just going to make the portfolio substitution. But people don't see Joan's actions; they see your actions. Suppose the perception is that our objective was to influence the rate--that we had a price objective and were trying to prevent the dollar from falling further or to cause it to rise, not trying to do something as Governor Blinder mentioned about disorderly markets. But the dollar now is not consistent with the objective. If we have a repetition of those, it makes the Federal Reserve look impotent because markets see what Peter does but they do not see what Joan does. And if we have several of those over a period, our image of being able to influence markets will be tarnished.","[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'First, the rate went through that level and then it came back. And so some of the psychological aspects of operating close to 100, but above it, were removed. That does not remove the point that Peter made about possible consequences of a large adjustment below that in the absence of any actions by the monetary authorities. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'The dollar had traded briefly below 100 in rather discrete increments and we had all seen 99 on the screen several times; it did not stay there very long. So, it was a sort of episodic venturing below 100. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'Rather this was in the minds of the participants in the market.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""That's right.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'That was creating this situation that forced our hand.And if it was, we might call it irrational.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""Well, the dollar had traded below 100 earlier in the week and that was indeed one of the reasons why we didn't operate then and why we felt somewhat more comfortable--though I think it's fair to say not greatly so--about operating at that point, having approached the 100 level for the third or fourth time.First, the rate went through that level and then it came back.And so some of the psychological aspects of operating close to 100, but above it, were removed.That does not remove the point that Peter made about possible consequences of a large adjustment below that in the absence of any actions by the monetary authorities.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'The dollar had traded briefly below 100 in rather discrete increments and we had all seen 99 on the screen several times; it did not stay there very long.So, it was a sort of episodic venturing below 100.'}]",no,,,,
83,84,19840717_526_2,MR. PARTEE.,"""certainly couldn't have been much worse than it was and looks like a continuing problem, and it doesn't seem to have shaken the market any more.""","It is true, isn't it, that we've had a couple of bad bank reports? certainly couldn't have been much worse than it was and looks like a continuing problem, and it doesn't seem to have shaken the market any more.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That's loss since the last examination, which was 6 months ago. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""Right. That's as opposed to the deterioration of the assets themselves; it's a very significant amount. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I think we can return to these questions, but I just don't want to interrupt the continuity of the market discussion entirely. Are there any other questions? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""But there is a certain fear--I don't know about this, but it needs some testing--that application of those standards to national oil credits will result in billions of dollars of loans being put in classified status because they won't pass the stiffer hurdle that's implied by the new evaluation.The only sense we have of that in a direct measurable sense is that they have done it to Continental and it has added $200 to $300 million to their classified items in a bank that already has had its oil portfolio examined and reexamined.At one point I heard a figure of $350 million.Maybe you know the figure as a result of the examination.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""No, I don't.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""It's in that magnitude.The loss category for Continental, including oil credits, is going to be $575 million.And that is largely the result of a different set of standards for credits.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That's loss since the last examination, which was 6 months ago.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""Right.That's as opposed to the deterioration of the assets themselves; it's a very significant amount.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I think we can return to these questions, but I just don't want to interrupt the continuity of the market discussion entirely.Are there any other questions?""}]",no,,,,
84,85,19951219_179_4,MR. BLINDER.,"""I don't see a reason to keep it there.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I am one of those opportunists who think that we have the real funds rate too high. As you said, it's higher than it was at the peak of our tightening. I don't see a reason to keep it there. I hope you will allow me to agree with the reasons that you gave for lowering the rate without signing on to your brave new world scenario, which I am not quite ready to do. I do agree 100 percent with all your reasons--the level of real interest rates, a weaker forecast than that in the Greenbook, and the minimal inflationary dangers. I definitely want to underscore that we are quite fortunate to be sitting here on December 19--ironically, we are quite fortunate, but the country is not--able to take this action and disassociate it entirely from the budget negotiation process, which I think is a very good thing for the Federal Reserve. Do it now.","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'How much of that sentiment there is, nobody knows, but I believe that there is some. In my view, it is very important that we not do more than 25 basis points and that we not touch the discount rate because there is sufficient uncertainty that, even though I happen to agree that your hypothesis is likely to turn out to be right, I think we should proceed cautiously. While I am very much a member of the opportunistic school for achieving price stability, I am a near-fanatic believer in achieving price stability. I think that the 25 basis point move leaves our price stability drive very much intact. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Blinder. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'But more importantly, we are near the year-end, the markets are relatively thin, and people have some very large gains that they may well decide to realize so that 1995 will look like a good year for them.We might also have some additional stock selling shortly after the turn of the year.There does seem to be a fair number of investors who have held off selling stocks, or selling bonds for that matter, in the hope that the capital gains tax will be lower effective January 1, 1996.How much of that sentiment there is, nobody knows, but I believe that there is some.In my view, it is very important that we not do more than 25 basis points and that we not touch the discount rate because there is sufficient uncertainty that, even though I happen to agree that your hypothesis is likely to turn out to be right, I think we should proceed cautiously.While I am very much a member of the opportunistic school for achieving price stability, I am a near-fanatic believer in achieving price stability.I think that the 25 basis point move leaves our price stability drive very much intact.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Blinder.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
85,86,19931116_839_2,MR. KELLEY.,"""I see very little evidence of an important change.""","Well, Mr. Chairman, I'm about where I've been for some months now. I see very little evidence of an important change. My definition of that in my lexicon would be a moderate growth expectation, fits and starts, a surge perhaps here in the fourth quarter but not sustainable, with a slow acceleration--in fits and starts--over time. I think there are enough positives in the forecast to sustain that growth, not the least of which would be a continued reduction in your famous head winds. In all probability all of the positives will sustain that moderate growth path. I think we have to recognize that there exist considerable restraints in that forecast that should prevent an upside breakout, [including] fiscal restraint, the further impact of new taxes, and a saving rate that is already at the bottom of its historical range. Also, restructuring continues and defense [outlays] will continue to decrease; net exports will not be helpful and may decrease or get worse as well; and intermediate and long rates have shown some spontaneous rises. I emphasize that I come out on the positive side of this, but I do think we have to recognize that there are some pretty powerful restraints out there. I'll relate one anecdote that I would share with those who weren't there. The Federal Advisory Committee was in here a week or so ago and they were asked what their forecast for the economy was. They had a very, very strong consensus at between 2-1/2 and 3 percent centering on about 2.8 percent. Just to see what it might elicit, we said: Okay if that's the consensus, think contrarian a little bit and tell us where you would see the risks to that forecast. Interestingly enough, the way I heard it--others who were there may have heard it differently--they were almost unanimous in seeing the risks on the down side, not the up side, for whatever that's worth. On inflation, I just don't see any pickup visible. Inflation is still falling on a year-over-year basis by almost every measure. We still have slack in the economy, although capacity utilization may have to come off of that list with this latest report. But certainly [we have slack] in labor markets and world activity generally and sentiment continues to be weak. So, I see no reason to look to a short-term move in that regard. In short: Steady as she goes.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': ""And, of course, we've had very little increase in the implied forward rates in the long end of the curve; much of it is intermediate. Nonetheless, when considering when to switch from accommodative to neutral I would note that the current favorable outlook for stronger growth does provide a credible environment in which to consider such a move at a time when I think many people would suggest the risks are on the up side. I will also simply say that it's worth noting that the Administration forecast is, of course, for short rates to go up above inflation next year. Thank you. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': ""So I think we ought to be sensitive to the risks associated with maintaining an accommodative stance too long, including the lost opportunity to secure lower inflation.But it does seem to me that it's relatively early in the game.The long bond rate is up 40 basis points but it seems to have stabilized and it's still 30 basis points below its level last summer after the budget deal passed.So it went way beyond the budget deal period.And, of course, we've had very little increase in the implied forward rates in the long end of the curve; much of it is intermediate.Nonetheless, when considering when to switch from accommodative to neutral I would note that the current favorable outlook for stronger growth does provide a credible environment in which to consider such a move at a time when I think many people would suggest the risks are on the up side.I will also simply say that it's worth noting that the Administration forecast is, of course, for short rates to go up above inflation next year.Thank you.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
86,87,19831004_103_1,MS. TEETERS.,"""Didn't a judge down there overturn one of the restructurings?""",,"[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'That ought to be an IMF compliance standard! '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""That's an unusual hazard. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""It's indicative of the hazards that they run. I don't know [the details]; all I read was a newspaper report that he's too friendly with the foreign banks. But it is some indication of the difficulty of managing these programs. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""The lead banks have agreed in principle; they haven't gotten all the other banks to agree yet.But it's going to remain a quite tenuous situation.Argentina is in a particularly political period before an election.It has been mentioned that they already have taken actions that are inconsistent with their IMF program and it's a question as to how long they can be said to be in compliance with it.The actual specific tests of that program have not yet been violated, looking back, but it's virtually certain that they will be, looking forward.The [situation] has heated up internally in terms of negotiations with the banks to the point that they put the central bank governor in jail yesterday.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'That ought to be an IMF compliance standard!'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""That's an unusual hazard.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""It's indicative of the hazards that they run.I don't know [the details]; all I read was a newspaper report that he's too friendly with the foreign banks.But it is some indication of the difficulty of managing these programs.""}]",no,,,,
87,88,20001219_14_2,MR. FISHER.,"""That is, the overall hedging market at the short end of the yield curve is so much deeper than at the current longer end of the yield curve, the 10-year, that the result is this exaggerated swing.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'But in the year-end environment-- '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""If they had those expectations, wouldn't you expect to see it more pronounced in the 2-year swap? It depends on whether it's solely a mortgage hedging operation, and it's obviously not. But the way you described it there was a sort of broader soft landing, monetary ease notion. If that were the fundamental concept from which they were dealing, wouldn't one have expected the 2-year swap rate to go down more? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'I think the mortgage portfolio managers looked at your speech and saw in it a mix of a soft landing forecast and an easing forecast without date specificity.And they came to feel a need to rush and anticipate the hedging needs for their portfolios this late in the year.And that, I think, drove them to grab whatever assets were available--whether they were agency debt securities, U.S. Treasuries, or swaps--to move into to hedge their duration risk.There was an arbitrage opportunity to wash some of this back out as our 10-year swap rate came down in a very pronounced manner, more than in Europe.But in the year-end environment--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""If they had those expectations, wouldn't you expect to see it more pronounced in the 2-year swap?It depends on whether it's solely a mortgage hedging operation, and it's obviously not.But the way you described it there was a sort of broader soft landing, monetary ease notion.If that were the fundamental concept from which they were dealing, wouldn't one have expected the 2-year swap rate to go down more?""}]",no,,,,
88,89,19900327_407_3,MR. BLACK.,"""The other is that members of Congress become concerned about the losses and try to exert political pressure on us so that we don't have to take those losses, which would mean pressure to ease policy.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""But then I think it would become clear to the market if we got to that point. If I were a market participant and I were sitting out there seeing the Federal Reserve talking about price stability and yet selling massive amounts of dollars, I think eventually I'd decide that was a joke as a policy. It seems to me that our policies have to be reasonably complementary and that we have to make some stand ultimately if the amount gets beyond the point of reason. I'm not saying that within a range we should not participate and act in a practical way on disorderly markets, as Ed Boehne said. But what do you do when you build up $50-$60 billion of foreign exchange reserves? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Basically when Sam, for example, or some of us from here argue with the Secretary, I think it does have an effect.It has not been 100 percent effective in the sense that we are not fully in control.Frankly, I would be quite fearful of what they might do if we weren't there to harass them toward some degree of sensibleness.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""But then I think it would become clear to the market if we got to that point.If I were a market participant and I were sitting out there seeing the Federal Reserve talking about price stability and yet selling massive amounts of dollars, I think eventually I'd decide that was a joke as a policy.It seems to me that our policies have to be reasonably complementary and that we have to make some stand ultimately if the amount gets beyond the point of reason.I'm not saying that within a range we should not participate and act in a practical way on disorderly markets, as Ed Boehne said.But what do you do when you build up $50-$60 billion of foreign exchange reserves?""}]",no,,,,
89,90,20041214_157_5,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""We can't get around it.""","It has always been that way. The point is that, if you divide the Committee into two separate groups and then discuss what those who voted on the particular statement thought and what those who didn't vote thought, we are actually no longer talking about the Federal Open Market Committee. The Federal Open Market Committee is composed of the twelve members who have the right to vote at a particular time. That's the law. We can't get around it.","[{'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': ""Today's meeting, I think, was an excellent example of that. Third, I view the purpose of the minutes as a means to communicate to the public the deliberations that occurred at the meeting, rather than the deliberations of the Committee-- ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'No, that is not the purpose. The purpose is essentially to give the reasons why we voted the way we did. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': ""Well, that's a different philosophy; I'll grant that. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The discussion of what is going on in the economy and the issues that are on the table and the relevance for potential future policy changes is a full Committee discussion.But the specific policy decision that is reported is the vote of the then-Committee.And the membership of the Committee changes from time to time.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, let me just say a couple of things.First, there is this mechanism for distinguishing between members and nonmembers.So a view about policy could easily be attributed to a nonmember.Second, many statements about the economy by members as well as by other participants seem integrally linked with their statements about policy.Today's meeting, I think, was an excellent example of that.Third, I view the purpose of the minutes as a means to communicate to the public the deliberations that occurred at the meeting, rather than the deliberations of the Committee--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'No, that is not the purpose.The purpose is essentially to give the reasons why we voted the way we did.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': ""Well, that's a different philosophy; I'll grant that.""}]",no,,,,
90,91,19780815_325_2,MR. COLDWELL.,"""The Treasury and us.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I have been on both sides of the fence. I think there have been times when intervention has been desirable. If we're going into this we ought to go into it in a major way; I would not want to go into this if we're going to fritter away a few hundred million. I think we ought to embark on a program of this character with the Japanese expecting to spend at least $4 billion. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Between the two combined you mean. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""There's a powerful case for doing something against these other currencies.But if we were to do it at all, I must say I would want tougher conditions laid down than just moving to a 2-1/2 percent discount rate and a stimulus program of 4 [trillion] yen.I think they've got to move more promptly, especially on these non-tariff barriers and all the ways they have of keeping out American goods.Their trade surplus with the United States is just fantastic and it's getting worse and not better.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you, John.Phil Coldwell.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I have been on both sides of the fence.I think there have been times when intervention has been desirable.If we're going into this we ought to go into it in a major way; I would not want to go into this if we're going to fritter away a few hundred million.I think we ought to embark on a program of this character with the Japanese expecting to spend at least $4 billion.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Between the two combined you mean.'}]",no,,,,
91,92,19870211_368_2,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""My principal concern is that we should warn them that under those circumstances, which may or may not eventually occur, we expect a pretty low Ml.""","I think people have to be warned. My principal concern is that we should warn them that under those circumstances, which may or may not eventually occur, we expect a pretty low Ml.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I would see at least as much danger there. It will be delicate to write it. I could easily write this in a way that locked us in more than we might want to be locked in to a lowering of M1 if we saw any sign of increasing inflationary pressures. I don't want us to be locked in too much either. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Well, I think we should create that expectation. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""I was inclined to be sympathetic to Jerry Corrigan, but you made some pretty tough points on that.At the same time, I think Tom Melzer has a point, too.In a period when the risk of inflation seems to be increasing and the risks of [rising] inflationary expectations also are increasing, there could be concern about the dropping of M1[as a target].That's the reason, really, that we put forth that idea of putting an inflation target in there to reassure the public that we had not lost our determination to deal with inflation.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, a lot depends upon the language that we use in the testimony and so forth.I would see at least as much danger there.It will be delicate to write it.I could easily write this in a way that locked us in more than we might want to be locked in to a lowering of M1 if we saw any sign of increasing inflationary pressures.I don't want us to be locked in too much either.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Well, I think we should create that expectation.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,entailment,-5 sentences
92,93,19910703_136_13,MR. PARRY.,"""Like the Greenbook, we expect a decline in inflation over the next year and a half.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""I think we have a real opportunity here to make significant progress--the best we've had since I've been around. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""The coffee is here and I neglected to take the break; I notice everyone is running for coffee, so why don't we take a short break and come back in 5 minutes? ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Begin, s'il vous plait! ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""So, what we've done is to assume that M2 will come in slightly above the midpoint of its current range this year and that the FOMC will lower the range for 1992 to 2 to 6 percent and will hold the actual growth of money within that range.This assumption of a lower target range for 1992 has a direct bearing on our projection since we believe, given the background of very favorable behavior in the money supply over the last few years, that reducing the range further would increase significantly the credibility of our anti-inflationary strategy and, consequently, would result in a more favorable division of nominal GNP between real growth and inflation--because of [how we factor in] forward-looking expectations, Lee.And without that strategy [unintelligible].If we achieve what we think are these highly plausible results, then we think the prospects of the subsequent years after 1992 will be very bright indeed.I think we have a real opportunity here to make significant progress--the best we've had since I've been around.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""The coffee is here and I neglected to take the break; I notice everyone is running for coffee, so why don't we take a short break and come back in 5 minutes?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Begin, s'il vous plait!""}]",no,,,,
93,94,19830209_966_4,VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.,"""If we want to defer that easing, okay, we can defer it.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'I would agree with that. '}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, maybe Steve could explain to us how he intends to operate. It might help us decide what kind of numbers we put in. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, how he intends to operate depends upon what we decide here. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Bring in borrowings. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""But you show, [if] one can believe it, that the radical revision is promptly offset the following week, which goes into February, with a further increase the following week of some substantial size.That now makes February look higher than January.The data are subject to equally radical changes in the rest of February.What to make out of all of this, I don't know.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'It makes it difficult, Mr. Chairman, on the face of it to think that Ml is going to slow substantially in February and March on average from January.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'Do you have a revised M2 for January, Steve?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Not at this point.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, we return to what we want to do.When do we meet again?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'The end of March--March 29th.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'March 29th.A period of--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Close to seven weeks.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Seven weeks exactly.I don't quite know what numbers to put in here.And the question is whether we need any numbers.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'I would agree with that.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, maybe Steve could explain to us how he intends to operate.It might help us decide what kind of numbers we put in.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, how he intends to operate depends upon what we decide here.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Bring in borrowings.'}]",no,,,,
94,95,19790206_143_2,CHAIRMAN MILLER.,"""Dave.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. MACDONALD.', 'text': ""Many businessmen, however, are apprehensive about [the economy] later in the year. People are especially concerned about the consumer being over-extended in the housing market. The strengths in our District include steel and machine tools, but inflation continues to be the overriding source of concern for everybody from the consumer to the manufacturer. Among the unknowns are energy, the Iranian situation, and wage settlements coming up this year. For these reasons I would not suggest easing policy; I'd wait until we can better judge the economy and the slowdown in the Ms. I agree with President Volcker on a 1 to 4 percent M1 range and a 4 to I percent M2 range, and [then] following alternative B in the Bluebook. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'But we think M2 clearly ought to come down and we can\'t think of anything better than what the staff has put down, so we would buy the 4-1/2 to 7-1/2 percent M2 range in ""B."" We would also buy the staff\'s ""B"" ranges on M3 and bank credit.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Bob.Walter.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MACDONALD.', 'text': ""Following in Bob's vein, let me say that business activity is relatively strong in our District.Many businessmen, however, are apprehensive about [the economy] later in the year.People are especially concerned about the consumer being over-extended in the housing market.The strengths in our District include steel and machine tools, but inflation continues to be the overriding source of concern for everybody from the consumer to the manufacturer.Among the unknowns are energy, the Iranian situation, and wage settlements coming up this year.For these reasons I would not suggest easing policy; I'd wait until we can better judge the economy and the slowdown in the Ms. I agree with President Volcker on a 1 to 4 percent M1 range and a 4 to I percent M2 range, and [then] following alternative B in the Bluebook.""}]",no,,,,
95,96,19920205_88_3,MR. SIMPSON.,"""And the announcements of reverse LBOs and so forth suggest that there still is more room to go in that area.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'So at this point I think one should be cautious in anticipating a really radical shift in productivity gains. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': ""A question for Tom Simpson: In your discussion, you talked about the balance sheet restructurings of both households and corporations. This is not a well-defined question, but do we have some notion even in a generalized sense of how much more desire there might be to do that? I'm trying to get to how much intermediated versus nonintermediated funds are going to the open market in this area with some vague presumption of conditions in the market remaining about as they are now. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""In the 1980s there was a distinct improvement in productivity performance in manufacturing.The residual has not shown that kind of improvement, and basically our expectation is that we will continue to see manufacturing do well in terms of gains in output per hour and that probably we will see the remainder of the economy improve its performance somewhat.I would caution, however, that it's not so clear that the developments we've been seeing recently--the restructuring--constitute a vastly different kind of event than we have seen in other cycles.So at this point I think one should be cautious in anticipating a really radical shift in productivity gains.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': ""A question for Tom Simpson:In your discussion, you talked about the balance sheet restructurings of both households and corporations.This is not a well-defined question, but do we have some notion even in a generalized sense of how much more desire there might be to do that?I'm trying to get to how much intermediated versus nonintermediated funds are going to the open market in this area with some vague presumption of conditions in the market remaining about as they are now.""}]",no,,,,
96,97,19800318_292_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""""C"" is 5 percent for the first two quarters, as I have calculated it, and the midpoint [of our annual target] is 4-3/4 percent.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I would not give all that much weight to the degree of support we\'re going to get if this is dragged out indefinitely and we have to go through this process once again. Where that leaves me in terms of ""B"" and ""C""--I don\'t think anybody mentioned ""A""--is that at this particular juncture I find the focus a little long, frankly, for me to come to any great conviction between ""B"" and ""C."" I share much of Governor Rice\'s feelings about those alternatives. I do attach some significance to the fact that if we took ""B"" literally, while the numbers as presented on page 6 of the Bluebook look low, [they imply] running above our annual targets in the way we calculate those targets. If we were going to be at the midpoint of the annual target, it would require a considerable decline in the second half of the year from the 5-1/4 percent quarterly growth pattern implied by ""B;"" and even ""C"" is above the midpoint of the annual target for M-1A. You are shaking your head ""no."" '}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': '""C"" would mean 4-1/4 percent per quarter for the rest of the year. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I would not give all that much weight to the degree of support we\'re going to get if this is dragged out indefinitely and we have to go through this process once again.Where that leaves me in terms of ""B"" and ""C""--I don\'t think anybody mentioned ""A""--is that at this particular juncture I find the focus a little long, frankly, for me to come to any great conviction between ""B"" and ""C."" I share much of Governor Rice\'s feelings about those alternatives.I do attach some significance to the fact that if we took ""B"" literally, while the numbers as presented on page 6 of the Bluebook look low, [they imply] running above our annual targets in the way we calculate those targets.If we were going to be at the midpoint of the annual target, it would require a considerable decline in the second half of the year from the 5-1/4 percent quarterly growth pattern implied by ""B;"" and even ""C"" is above the midpoint of the annual target for M-1A. You are shaking your head ""no.""'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': '""C"" would mean 4-1/4 percent per quarter for the rest of the year.'}]",no,,,,
97,98,20050630_71_1,MR. GALLIN.,"""Let me note just one last thing.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. GALLIN.', 'text': ""So, some of my work is trying to get at just these types of criticisms. But from the underlying data, I have been able to look at rent appreciation for different segments of the rental market, trying to see--with home ownership rates going up--where the homeowner market is stealing, so to speak, from the rental market and how big the biases are. And it does look as if the higher end of the rental market has been showing somewhat smaller rent increases over time, suggesting that that's where it's coming from, but not dramatically. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""That raises an important point because, as we know, wages of nonsupervisory workers, which are essentially payroll data, are going up 3 percent, whereas implicitly that of supervisory workers is going up double or three times that. That's changing; it has accelerated in the most recent period. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GALLIN.', 'text': ""As an aside, but regarding that particular point, I've been working one day a week at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and I have access to the confidential underlying micro data that they use to build up the CPI.So, some of my work is trying to get at just these types of criticisms.But from the underlying data, I have been able to look at rent appreciation for different segments of the rental market, trying to see--with home ownership rates going up--where the homeowner market is stealing, so to speak, from the rental market and how big the biases are.And it does look as if the higher end of the rental market has been showing somewhat smaller rent increases over time, suggesting that that's where it's coming from, but not dramatically.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""That raises an important point because, as we know, wages of nonsupervisory workers, which are essentially payroll data, are going up 3 percent, whereas implicitly that of supervisory workers is going up double or three times that.That's changing; it has accelerated in the most recent period.""}]",no,,,,
98,99,19950706_274_2,MS. PHILLIPS.,"""I find myself quite frustrated with this discussion.""","I favor alternative II for 1995 and alternative I for 1996. I find myself quite frustrated with this discussion. I think part of it has to do with our not really knowing whether the ranges are something we should be shooting for--whether they are long-term objectives, or whether they are in effect short-term monitoring ranges to be explained. So, I support the notion of having a more extended discussion of what our goals should be in terms of thinking about restructuring the Humphrey-Hawkins statute and the kinds of things we monitor. I don't think this is the time to do it, because I am not sure we know enough now about what range we should monitor, whether it should be M2 or M3 or something else. At this point, I certainly agree with the notion that if we change the M2 range now, we are going to draw more attention to it. But at some point I think we do need to address the kinds of issues that Al Broaddus has raised and decide whether or not we are going to support legislative changes that would get us off the horns of this dilemma.","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': ""I will throw on the table the possibility that if we really do not believe that the aggregates are going to return to providing us with some nexus to the real economy, the time might be coming if it is not here already to think about a change in the statute. Not only is this setting of the ranges a distraction for the Congress in some sense, but it is occupying a lot of this Committee's time for no good reasons except, as you said, Mr. Chairman, that the law is there. If we remove the statutory provision, the focus of Committee discussions can be better directed to more important issues. I realize that there are risks in going forward with that kind of legislative request, but I think it is something that we ought to think about. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Phillips. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': ""Changing the ranges would just draw more attention to them and provide a real distraction to the essential conversations that I think we need to be having.With that in mind, I would favor alternative II for 1995 and alternative I for 1996.That encompasses M3.Let me just add one other thought, since there has been some discussion of possible changes that Al Broaddus brought up.I will throw on the table the possibility that if we really do not believe that the aggregates are going to return to providing us with some nexus to the real economy, the time might be coming if it is not here already to think about a change in the statute.Not only is this setting of the ranges a distraction for the Congress in some sense, but it is occupying a lot of this Committee's time for no good reasons except, as you said, Mr. Chairman, that the law is there.If we remove the statutory provision, the focus of Committee discussions can be better directed to more important issues.I realize that there are risks in going forward with that kind of legislative request, but I think it is something that we ought to think about.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Phillips.'}]",yes,yes,,,
99,100,19780516_161_5,MR. STERNLIGHT.,"""There are those reasons for their being sold--foreign accounts, captive-type customers, and others who [unintelligible].""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Peter. Any questions? Phil. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. JACKSON.', 'text': 'How does the market currently view the disparity between the level of the federal funds rate and the 90-day bill rate? What is the market conversation about that disparity in rates? '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""You all see some things, but the staff was questioned on this yesterday and I think they would probably feel that prices are the most vulnerable part of their forecast--that they see pressures--but for the discussion on actual real activity, [they thought] it might be lower.Let me ask: I'm told coffee is ready, but is [a coffee break] desirable or can we get out some reports before?What would be your pleasure--break and come back?All right, why don't we do that and we'll pick up on the next and most exciting part, I thought, of an FOMC meeting.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Ladies and gentlemen, may we reconvene to come to the part we are paid for?For now it's going to [unintelligible].Opinions are very valuable, but votes separating the folks [unintelligible].Let's see now; [the next agenda item is] domestic open market operations.Peter Sternlight will give us a report on operations since our last meeting.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.]'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Peter.Any questions?Phil.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JACKSON.', 'text': 'How does the market currently view the disparity between the level of the federal funds rate and the 90-day bill rate?What is the market conversation about that disparity in rates?'}]",no,,,,
100,101,19811117_513_3,VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.,"""And I think that is much more meaningful to an economic recovery.""",The reaction to that would be very perverse in the bond market. I'm convinced of it. And I think that is much more meaningful to an economic recovery.,"[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""To me it's really important that we not repeat what we did last year. That's the one time I dissented and I'd have to dissent again, I think, if the fed funds floor were put so as to permit such a sharp drop in the funds rate over a short period of time. ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""Don't forget that last year the economy went down at a real rate of 9-1/2 percent in the second quarter. No wonder the rates dropped so fast. We're going to have a decline here of about half that. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'Do you mean 7 percent for October to December?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'No.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'November to December.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""He means September to December, doesn't he?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'September to December you calculate at 8 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'No, November to December.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Well, that\'s not the same as we had the last time.""A"" is what we had last time.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""That's right.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, that's the only thing.Of course, we can do that whatever we say in the directive.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Well, I would go with Fred's proposal.To me it's really important that we not repeat what we did last year.That's the one time I dissented and I'd have to dissent again, I think, if the fed funds floor were put so as to permit such a sharp drop in the funds rate over a short period of time.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""Don't forget that last year the economy went down at a real rate of 9-1/2 percent in the second quarter.No wonder the rates dropped so fast.We're going to have a decline here of about half that.""}]",yes,yes,,ambiguous,
101,102,19901113_269_18,MR. BOYKIN.,"""We had a joint meeting last week of all four of our boards of directors and the comments made at that meeting certainly confirmed what our statistics are saying.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': ""But I just can't come to a different conclusion because regardless of what we do in policy--and we're constrained with the dollar on one side of the prospective policy--it would take an awful big move to divert some of the enormous increase in conservatism and risk premiums by many lending institutions, and not just commercial banks, given the problems that they have. There are several actions that we could take in that area, though as I say they're not directly germane to today's [discussion] on what has to be done. But I think we really have to give an awful lot of thought to that as being part of how we proceed--that leaning against the wind may apply to supervisory policy in many cases just as well as monetary policy. I hope that in these observations I'm overly influenced by parochialism, but that may not be the case. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boykin. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': ""It feels somewhat silly raising this, but I think what is becoming more and more an issue nationwide, and it is for real, is that we need to take some steps to reconcile our objectives in macro policy with what we're doing in the supervisory area.I must say I hate to raise that because it apparently goes against a lot of things we all believe.But I just can't come to a different conclusion because regardless of what we do in policy--and we're constrained with the dollar on one side of the prospective policy--it would take an awful big move to divert some of the enormous increase in conservatism and risk premiums by many lending institutions, and not just commercial banks, given the problems that they have.There are several actions that we could take in that area, though as I say they're not directly germane to today's [discussion] on what has to be done.But I think we really have to give an awful lot of thought to that as being part of how we proceed--that leaning against the wind may apply to supervisory policy in many cases just as well as monetary policy.I hope that in these observations I'm overly influenced by parochialism, but that may not be the case.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boykin.'}]",no,,,,
102,103,19990630_78_2,MR. STERN.,"""That's fine.""","No, I understand that. That's fine.","[{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""Well, the model that is embedded in these two charts was put together by the International Finance Division two years ago. And it came to somewhat less fearsome conclusions because the dollar is two years' worth of appreciation lower now and we have not had two years of full-blown U.S. deficits piling up and so forth. We said the same thing then, and in fact the world went completely the opposite way. Even though we said then that the current account would begin to get alarming and the projections were inevitable, the numbers have gone in the other direction for two years. So there is no sense in which I mean this chart to be telling you what is going to happen starting tomorrow. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': ""If I understood Peter's litany of things that might come back to haunt us--having to do especially with the euro and the yen--they seem to imply that the euro and the yen might both depreciate relative to the dollar once market perceptions change.That is, the attitude right now may be that the Japanese are succeeding in stabilizing the yen, but we don't expect that to last.If that is right, these numbers would look even worse, presumably.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""Well, the model that is embedded in these two charts was put together by the International Finance Division two years ago.And it came to somewhat less fearsome conclusions because the dollar is two years' worth of appreciation lower now and we have not had two years of full-blown U.S. deficits piling up and so forth.We said the same thing then, and in fact the world went completely the opposite way.Even though we said then that the current account would begin to get alarming and the projections were inevitable, the numbers have gone in the other direction for two years.So there is no sense in which I mean this chart to be telling you what is going to happen starting tomorrow.""}]",yes,no,,,
103,104,19830209_596_3,MR. AXILROD.,"""We didn't think that there was room for any more private credit within the monetary targets and given the government's [needs].""","Mr. Chairman, we don't feel extremely confident about all of these numbers--and Mr. Prell may be able to make some comments on how he got to here a little more elaborately--but if we attempted to have a lot more private credit, we believe that interest rates would be a lot higher in that process and we wouldn't get the GNP because the rise in interest rates would begin to cut it back. So, this is where we came out with a consistent set of relationships. We didn't think that there was room for any more private credit within the monetary targets and given the government's [needs].","[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'And I divided that by the GNP and got 7-1/2 percent. I looked at my own tables here, which I happen to have with me, to compare that 7-1/2 percent. And when I went back, I thought: Well, in 1975 we had 6.9 percent. And then I went all the way back and had to go back to 1961 to find any comparable ratio. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'You know, 1976 was 11 percent. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""You certainly don't want it to be 16 or 17 percent.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""No. I wouldn't suggest anything of the kind.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'Lyle, may I ask what you did?Did you take the $413.3 billion in the middle column in the third set of numbers and subtract out $145.6 billion for the federal and then on the $452.3 billion did you take out $218 billion?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""Yes.Well, from the $452 billion I took out the staff's [projected deficit] number, which I think was $210 billion, and I got a figure--I don't have the numbers--whatever 452 minus 210 is.And I divided that by the GNP and got 7-1/2 percent.I looked at my own tables here, which I happen to have with me, to compare that 7-1/2 percent.And when I went back, I thought: Well, in 1975 we had 6.9 percent.And then I went all the way back and had to go back to 1961 to find any comparable ratio.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'You know, 1976 was 11 percent.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,,
104,105,19960521_201_7,MR. KELLEY.,"""One of the pleasures of my job is that I get to discuss goals with all 12 Reserve Banks.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MS. YELLEN.', 'text': 'I agree with Governor Lindsey. I think this is a discussion that we definitely need to have to clarify what we mean by price stability and what strategy we have in mind to get there. I am also concerned, especially given my interest in an opportunistic strategy, that it would be awfully hard to fill in the boxes relating to what I would expect in 1998. If we extended the horizon out a little longer to, say, the year 2000, I would find it easier to fill in the boxes and participate in our discussion. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'I am proud of being an opportunist, but the thing I don\'t know is when the opportunity is going to present itself.We are not going to induce a recession, but we know the business cycle is going to produce one.When it does, then inflation will come down.I don\'t know if that will occur one or two business cycles from now.Perhaps the year 2000 is a good year for a goal; perhaps ""ultimate"" is another desirable goal; but I would not use 1998.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Yellen.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. YELLEN.', 'text': 'I agree with Governor Lindsey.I think this is a discussion that we definitely need to have to clarify what we mean by price stability and what strategy we have in mind to get there.I am also concerned, especially given my interest in an opportunistic strategy, that it would be awfully hard to fill in the boxes relating to what I would expect in 1998.If we extended the horizon out a little longer to, say, the year 2000, I would find it easier to fill in the boxes and participate in our discussion.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley.'}]",no,,,,
105,106,19840717_134_1,MR. WALLICH.,"""My numbers are on the high side of the forecasts, but not extraordinarily so.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': ""If the drop-off does materialize, that will likely bring inflation pressures back on the domestic side. Given capacity utilization and the other things that we normally look at, it just seems to me that pressures are going to start building as we get into 1985. Therefore, I'm not as optimistic on inflation as the staff. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'By a considerable margin. Governor Wallich. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': ""In terms of real growth, we're about where the Board staff is; we have a little higher nominal GNP and are higher on the deflator.When we are as uncertain as we are, maybe we can learn something from history just from the standpoint of where we are in the cycle.We are going into the third year of recovery; inflationary pressures tend to increase at that point.Looking at it today, it feels considerably different.But we've said that, [thus far] at least, this recovery is pretty well tracking a normal recovery.So, it makes one wonder if it really is going to be that different as we go forward.I have some real concerns about the exchange value of the dollar.If the drop-off does materialize, that will likely bring inflation pressures back on the domestic side.Given capacity utilization and the other things that we normally look at, it just seems to me that pressures are going to start building as we get into 1985.Therefore, I'm not as optimistic on inflation as the staff.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'By a considerable margin.Governor Wallich.'}]",no,,,,
106,107,19891219_199_1,MR. ANGELL.,"""Well, take table 1 of Mike's December 14th""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""I don't think there's an easy answer to your question, Governor Angell. Ultimately, you would have to crank the whole thing through a big model of interest rates and money demand and all that sort of thing. The P* model tends to cut through it a bit. I do think that some attention to these money growth rates when they get very high or very low provides a sense of discipline on the central bank to make sure it's not going too far off the track one way or another. And that's essentially what P* attempts to do. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""The P* model was an attempt to cut through all that and to say: Suppose velocity grows at its long-run trend and output grows at its long-run trend, then how does money in a statistical sense feed through to prices?And where we are right now is that P* is below P.We've got a sense of restraint on, but I think in one of Dave's charts, Exhibit 4, you can see that the projected growth in money gets you down where there isn't any difference between P and P* in the early part of 1990 and then it rises again when money growth eases off.I don't think there's an easy answer to your question, Governor Angell.Ultimately, you would have to crank the whole thing through a big model of interest rates and money demand and all that sort of thing.The P* model tends to cut through it a bit.I do think that some attention to these money growth rates when they get very high or very low provides a sense of discipline on the central bank to make sure it's not going too far off the track one way or another.And that's essentially what P* attempts to do.""}]",no,,,,
107,108,20040128_90_7,MR. GRAMLICH.,"""So I would be for gradual evolution.""","I began the exercise thinking that we could come up with a formulaic statement that would work most of the time. In working through it--I was also part of the working group--I now think we can't. I'm pretty much in sympathy with the Chairman in believing that we will face situations where we may think the differences are subtle and not that great but in fact they are. In going through the stress-test exercise, as was done in the memo, I found that nothing here appealed to me very much. Not only do these options not appeal to me, I think they are worse than what we're doing now. So I would be for gradual evolution. I actually recommended a sentence limit before. Maybe Cathy's word limit is better than a sentence limit. I don't know. But I do think that we ought to keep it short. I would like to address a different issue. The one cost that has been mentioned is that associated with writing a new statement each time--that it is too hard for us in terms of the process. You pass out a draft, we've got to read it and think about it, and so forth. I've actually thought about that issue, and in my view, it is less of a problem than we may think. First, in the way these statements have gone, they really haven't changed all that much from meeting to meeting. Second, in the last few Bluebooks, Vincent has described how the statement might change, so we have some warning or advance notice. Consequently, when we see the final statement, I don't think it's that much of a shock. In terms of the process, I believe it's something we can handle at each meeting. In sum, I think the formulaic approaches don't really do it. Second, I think we have overrated the cost of writing a separate short statement each time to convey exactly what it is we want to convey.","[{'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': ""Others may disagree, I realize, but that's where I came out. However, I would have no trouble--as you know, Roger--going with gradual evolution. Indeed, if you look at the criteria on page 5 in Vincent's memo, I think that approach may well do a better job on items 2, 3, and 4. So I have no problem with that approach and would be very comfortable with it. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'I have Governor Gramlich next. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'But I think I understand where you are.The next one on my list is President Stern.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': 'I was part of the working group, but I certainly agree that none of the alternatives is perfect.Confining myself to the risk assessment, if I were going to select formulaic language, I would select the ""levels A"" alternative--for very practical reasons.When I ran through the stress tests, that alternative seemed to me to do the best job of conveying to the public the situation and the prospective stance of policy given what we knew at the time.Others may disagree, I realize, but that\'s where I came out.However, I would have no trouble--as you know, Roger--going with gradual evolution.Indeed, if you look at the criteria on page 5 in Vincent\'s memo, I think that approach may well do a better job on items 2, 3, and 4.So I have no problem with that approach and would be very comfortable with it.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'I have Governor Gramlich next.'}]",yes,no,,,
108,109,20001219_95_8,MR. POOLE.,"""Back in May when we raised it to 6-1/2 percent, some rates were above and some rates were below.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': 'But in the process of trying to land that plane in the simulator of the aircraft carrier, I ended up producing what the instructor called ""pilot-induced oscillation."" [Laughter] That means finding oneself wobbling first one way and then the other way. And I think we have some of the same concerns about monetary policy. We don\'t want to overreact-- '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Let me ask--did you land or didn't you land? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': 'I see these reflected in areas like durable goods orders and much wider credit spreads that are reducing credit availability to more marginal borrowers.In my view we are observing a fairly standard set of cyclical processes.But they need not, of course, end up creating recession if we have a policy response that is appropriate to the changing circumstances.I\'m reminded that a couple of weeks ago I had the very pleasant experience of touring the Boeing F-18 assembly plant and had about thirty minutes in the simulator for an F-18.I must say I\'m a lot happier sitting around this table than I am in an F-18!But in the process of trying to land that plane in the simulator of the aircraft carrier, I ended up producing what the instructor called ""pilot-induced oscillation.""[Laughter] That means finding oneself wobbling first one way and then the other way.And I think we have some of the same concerns about monetary policy.We don\'t want to overreact--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Let me ask--did you land or didn't you land?""}]",no,,,,
109,110,20080805_185_4,CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.,"""[Laughter] I listened very carefully to what has been said.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MS. DUKE.', 'text': 'I don\'t think that the ""severe financial stress"" scenario is out of the question right now. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Thank you. Vice Chairman. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support alternative B for the reasons that you and many others have already stated. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MISHKIN.', 'text': ""We won't have boards of directors that will be good.We won't have all of the benefits that we think we have from the current system.The other alternative is that we then have presidents who are actually appointed by the President and then confirmed by the Senate.I think, again, that hurts the private linkage.So I feel very strongly about all three of these issues, but I think that you're going to come up with serious challenges in the future that could be very damaging to the System.So I hope you think about this and still like me for being blunt, and also miss me because there will be a little less amusement.Who else would have brought Monty Python into the FOMC?Thank you very much.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Thank you, Governor Mishkin.Governor Duke.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. DUKE.', 'text': 'Thank you.I support alternative B.I don\'t think that the ""severe financial stress"" scenario is out of the question right now.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Thank you.Vice Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Chairman.I support alternative B for the reasons that you and many others have already stated.'}]",no,,,,
110,111,19861105_58_1,MR. PARRY.,"""Are there any indicators that support the slowing in state and local spending to that extent?""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""It didn't last quarter, I don't think. Government spending last quarter actually declined very substantially. The rate of growth in the fourth quarter was up, so maybe it just got swamped. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Defense spending in the third quarter was flat and we have a noticeable uptick based on what we would perceive to be the deliveries. Obviously, there is some very erratic timing; some procurement items show up or don't show up in any given time period. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""It's the change in weights and then the change in prices.""}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'One question about the near term: I noticed that you have a fair runoff in farm inventories and also an increase in government.Is that an offset?Is there a CCC thing going on there?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Let me check.Yes.We have a $4-1/2 billion increase in CCC inventories.That's roughly the range we have been seeing the last couple of quarters, so there is no gyration in that.Basically, it's something that goes through from our overall output estimates.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""Well, that should show up in government spending at the same time.It didn't last quarter, I don't think.Government spending last quarter actually declined very substantially.The rate of growth in the fourth quarter was up, so maybe it just got swamped.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Defense spending in the third quarter was flat and we have a noticeable uptick based on what we would perceive to be the deliveries.Obviously, there is some very erratic timing; some procurement items show up or don't show up in any given time period.""}]",no,,,,
111,112,19960326_54_9,MR. MCTEER.,"""Retail sales along the border area have improved a little lately.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'Prices of raw materials are showing some increases. On the national front, I think that the fundamentals remain strong, and we expect, as the Greenbook does, growth at about the potential rate of 2 percent. With the capacity in the economy being used at its current level, the rise in core inflation from 1994 through 1995 probably will continue, and I think that is a risk we have to keep in mind as I have said before. That concludes my comments. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President McTeer. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': ""The region's energy industry remains lackluster despite some higher oil and natural gas prices in recent months.Another weak area is agriculture, where a continued slump in cattle prices and continued dry weather are hurting the income prospects for many in that sector.However, those farmers who do harvest a crop should do well in light of the high grain prices right now.Wage and price pressures still remain modest in the District, although labor markets appear to continue to get tighter.More of our directors are reporting tight labor markets for entry-level and some skilled jobs as well.Prices of raw materials are showing some increases.On the national front, I think that the fundamentals remain strong, and we expect, as the Greenbook does, growth at about the potential rate of 2 percent.With the capacity in the economy being used at its current level, the rise in core inflation from 1994 through 1995 probably will continue, and I think that is a risk we have to keep in mind as I have said before.That concludes my comments.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President McTeer.'}]",no,,,,
112,113,19840327_933_1,MR. BOYKIN.,"""That was the question I wanted to ask: If we take ""B"" as specified and say 7 to 11 percent, have we done anything?""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""This is going to come back to haunt us if we don't decide to act. And we can't act by just confirming what happened in the market in the past couple of weeks. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': 'Do you interpret alternative B as just validating that? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""I do indeed. That's what we're saying. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Based upon all the experience, I don't interpret it as a barrier anyway.But it is a mechanical point that means we have a consultation.So, where do you want the consultation?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'At 11 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'At 11 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'At 11 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'At 11-1/2 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""I'd rather have the consultation now.I don't think we will see anything in the next two weeks that is going to be convincing on where the economy is going to go.And two weeks more on the money numbers is not going to tell us anything about longer-term trends of money, which is what really matters.I think we're pussy-footing.I think we've been sitting here for some months now looking at an economy that continues to exceed everybody's expectations.This is going to come back to haunt us if we don't decide to act.And we can't act by just confirming what happened in the market in the past couple of weeks.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': 'Do you interpret alternative B as just validating that?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""I do indeed.That's what we're saying.""}]",no,,,,
113,114,20061212_151_2,CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.,"""President Pianalto.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'I was asking myself about ""and spending had been slightly weaker""--that raises the question ""than what?"" In truth, it is slightly weaker than anticipated, but the Committee doesn\'t have a record showing exactly what we\'re anticipating. It is slightly weaker, if you think about the industrial production data, than it was a few months ago. So I think it can stand without ""than anticipated."" Thank you, Mr. Chairman. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'We do need to indicate to the markets and to the public that we are aware that some data have been just a touch--or, as Governor Mishkin said, a smidgen--weaker than we anticipated.I like the new version because it does home in on production and spending.By implication, the labor markets haven\'t been weaker than we anticipated, so I think it\'s a more accurate representation.We really haven\'t--at least the staff hasn\'t--revised down GDP growth very much once you take account of the auto distortion.So I think this is more accurate.I like the fact that it says ""slightly weaker"" rather than the ""somewhat"" in the other alternative B.I think that\'s more representative.I could live without ""than anticipated.""I was asking myself about ""and spending had been slightly weaker""--that raises the question ""than what?""In truth, it is slightly weaker than anticipated, but the Committee doesn\'t have a record showing exactly what we\'re anticipating.It is slightly weaker, if you think about the industrial production data, than it was a few months ago.So I think it can stand without ""than anticipated.""Thank you, Mr. Chairman.'}]",no,,,,
114,115,19860212_389_7,MR. MARTIN.,"""We will release the record of policy actions for December in a couple of days, so we are going to release some interesting numbers one day and some interesting history the next day.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': ""We have some complications on the international side, but I think we ought to heed the adage that you quoted and keep running in place--maintain the status quo or an even keel or whatever it is. My tendency would be a little different from Tom Melzer's in that the inflation picture to me doesn't look all that bad, and the question I keep asking myself is: What risk would we run by giving the economy a little boost? I don't think now is the time to do it, but I think that down the road perhaps I would tend to ease up just a little. At the moment, however, I would opt for alternative B with the specifications and the borrowing as indicated at $300 to $400 million. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Martin. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Would you technically interpret that as ""B"" or what?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Forrestal.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': ""I come out pretty much the same place, Mr. Chairman.I think you analyzed the situation quite cogently.The economic numbers certainly look a lot better than they did the last time that we met and inflation looks pretty good.We have some complications on the international side, but I think we ought to heed the adage that you quoted and keep running in place--maintain the status quo or an even keel or whatever it is.My tendency would be a little different from Tom Melzer's in that the inflation picture to me doesn't look all that bad, and the question I keep asking myself is: What risk would we run by giving the economy a little boost?I don't think now is the time to do it, but I think that down the road perhaps I would tend to ease up just a little.At the moment, however, I would opt for alternative B with the specifications and the borrowing as indicated at $300 to $400 million.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Martin.'}]",no,,,,
115,116,20010515_140_1,MR. FERGUSON.,"""Thank you, Mr. Chairman.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. MEYER.', 'text': 'I can support your recommendation for a 50 basis point easing today and a statement that the risks remain unbalanced toward economic weakness. On the other hand, I could also have joined Presidents Minehan and Broaddus in supporting a case for slowing the pace of easing today and moving only 25 basis points. That might have been a very effective way of signaling the sentiment that we now need to move toward a more cautious monetary policy and that we may not be far from ending the easing cycle. But more importantly, Mr. Chairman, I agree with you on what I believe is the really important issue, and that is the prospect that we may be near the point--and perhaps after this move at the point--where we have to be very cautious about any further easing. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Ferguson. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""Second, if this release will have an asymmetric tilt--as I think it should because it's the only honest thing that we can say now--then that coupled with too strong a statement about ending this process could send the market a very confusing message and have a counterproductive impact.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Meyer.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MEYER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Chairman.I can support your recommendation for a 50 basis point easing today and a statement that the risks remain unbalanced toward economic weakness.On the other hand, I could also have joined Presidents Minehan and Broaddus in supporting a case for slowing the pace of easing today and moving only 25 basis points.That might have been a very effective way of signaling the sentiment that we now need to move toward a more cautious monetary policy and that we may not be far from ending the easing cycle.But more importantly, Mr. Chairman, I agree with you on what I believe is the really important issue, and that is the prospect that we may be near the point--and perhaps after this move at the point--where we have to be very cautious about any further easing.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Ferguson.'}]",no,,,,
116,117,19850326_230_2,MR. STERNLIGHT.,"""We have been making an allowance in this current reserve period; even though $600 million is in there for excess reserves, we've been thinking of it as somewhat higher and not rushing in to take out what has looked over the last couple of days, for example, like more than enough reserves for the path.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""If you had $500 million of borrowing and the same free reserves, it may be a little higher--perhaps an eighth of a point, I would guess--but it isn't very far off. ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'At some point, though, do we at this Committee meeting have to take into account these changing attitudes toward excess reserves? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""That's something Mr. Sternlight can gauge in the course of the two-week period. All he can do is see what's happening to excess reserves and try to gauge a sense of the demands using whatever information we have, including how the funds rate is moving and what we think is governing the distribution of reserves. ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'Well, okay. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""So, to a great extent we're at the mercy of the market in that distribution.And I would think that the funds rate recently probably has been a bit higher than either Peter or I would have expected early in the period.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""It's higher than I thought I understood at the last meeting.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""But it's not that much higher, I think, than if you had $350 million of borrowing and the same free reserves.If you had $500 million of borrowing and the same free reserves, it may be a little higher--perhaps an eighth of a point, I would guess--but it isn't very far off.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'At some point, though, do we at this Committee meeting have to take into account these changing attitudes toward excess reserves?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""That's something Mr. Sternlight can gauge in the course of the two-week period.All he can do is see what's happening to excess reserves and try to gauge a sense of the demands using whatever information we have, including how the funds rate is moving and what we think is governing the distribution of reserves.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'Well, okay.'}]",no,,,,
117,118,19901002_412_3,MR. HOSKINS.,"""I don't see that yet, and that's why I'm having a little trouble right now.""","Well, I would agree if I could see a little more clearly that that was happening. If, as I think Don suggested, we begin to see some real weakness in M2, then we would recognize this as a severe credit related problem. I don't see that yet, and that's why I'm having a little trouble right now.","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': ""So, I do think that the explanation that you give--and I would prefer to link this motion if it carries to the economy and M2--needs to be done carefully. Again, I didn't want to tie it continuously to the credit crunch because then we're locking ourselves in. As the banking system gets weaker, which I think is a structural problem over time and not a cyclical problem, we'll be tying ourselves to something like that. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""When we talk about credit stringency here, hopefully you're referring to a sort of supply-side effect of restraint in the context of weakening demand. In a sense if we're trying to maintain a steady supply and the markets are tightening up independently of what we are doing--at, say, an 8 percent funds rate--I think this is a classic case of what's wrong with [focusing policy on] an 8 percent funds rate or some other fixed funds rate. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': ""But with respect to policy moves, I'm very concerned about the reaction in the marketplace--that they might see us as tossing in the towel on inflation.So, I do think that the explanation that you give--and I would prefer to link this motion if it carries to the economy and M2--needs to be done carefully.Again, I didn't want to tie it continuously to the credit crunch because then we're locking ourselves in.As the banking system gets weaker, which I think is a structural problem over time and not a cyclical problem, we'll be tying ourselves to something like that.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""When we talk about credit stringency here, hopefully you're referring to a sort of supply-side effect of restraint in the context of weakening demand.In a sense if we're trying to maintain a steady supply and the markets are tightening up independently of what we are doing--at, say, an 8 percent funds rate--I think this is a classic case of what's wrong with [focusing policy on] an 8 percent funds rate or some other fixed funds rate.""}]",yes,yes,utterance,,
118,119,19850710_856_4,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""We could if you wanted to.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, I just changed something. Instead of just putting that number in parallel [with the others], I said ""with a substantial slowing of M1 to a rate of 5 to 6 percent."" And then the rest of it would be ""might"" and ""would."" There\'s nothing else there that needs to be changed particularly, is there? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Would you like to change that funds rate range to 9 percent at the top? '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'This action is expected to be consistent with growth in M2 and M3 at annual rates of""--what is that?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': '7-1/2 percent and 7-1/4 percent, I think.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Yes, but we don't want 7-1/4 percent in there.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Yes, make it 7-1/2 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Continuing: ""of around 7-1/2 percent during the period from June to September and with a substantial slowing of M1 to a rate of 5 to 6 percent.""We could put that first, if you wanted to.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Consistent with what we've been saying, put it second.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'All right.Well, I just changed something.Instead of just putting that number in parallel [with the others], I said ""with a substantial slowing of M1 to a rate of 5 to 6 percent.""And then the rest of it would be ""might"" and ""would.""There\'s nothing else there that needs to be changed particularly, is there?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Would you like to change that funds rate range to 9 percent at the top?'}]",no,,,,
119,120,19890516_451_4,MR. BOYKIN.,"""But it seems to me that more or less what I'm hearing is the commitment for a conference call before the next meeting, which gives the opportunity to make any slight adjustment if that's wrong.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': 'In fact, if we are, we probably won\'t have to tighten policy down the road. So, my view would be to accept ""B."" I don\'t feel strongly about the language because I don\'t think the market will misinterpret it. The Humphrey-Hawkins report will be in front of them when that language comes out; I don\'t know what we\'re going to want to say at that point in time. My bias would be to leave it asymmetric as we have been doing. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boykin. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': 'The reason I gave Mike Prell\'s staff credit for putting the notion that we might have a recession into the Greenbook is that if we don\'t walk up and take a look at one we\'ll end up always having higher rates of inflation than we anticipated and, therefore, less output and employment than we expect.Given the way we operate policy, I think we have to be prepared to face the possibility that we could slip, at least for a short period of time, into a contraction.Having said all that, I am uncomfortable suggesting that we ought to ease at all.I did dissent on the long-term target; I wanted it centered around 2 to 3 percent.We\'re slightly below that right now.Don Kohn assures me, however, that we\'ll be back on target shortly.In fact, if we are, we probably won\'t have to tighten policy down the road.So, my view would be to accept ""B."" I don\'t feel strongly about the language because I don\'t think the market will misinterpret it.The Humphrey-Hawkins report will be in front of them when that language comes out; I don\'t know what we\'re going to want to say at that point in time.My bias would be to leave it asymmetric as we have been doing.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boykin.'}]",no,,,,
120,121,20070321_172_15,MR. WARSH.,"""The most important thing that we're accomplishing in alternative B is suggesting that we aren't going to come to the rescue of market tumult, that market discipline is working, that we don't want complacency in the markets, and that our job is not to make sure that people make money in those markets.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I also generally share the views of alternative B and favor maintaining the federal funds rate today. I thought what I'd do is just highlight a couple of things. First, I think the statement needs to be reflective of the real economy rather than financial markets, as we discussed yesterday. So let me spend a moment on the reference to ""still-favorable financial conditions"" in alternative B. I think the financial conditions are still favorable, and so that's an honest depiction of events, as is the rest of the statement after the reference to coming quarters. I think the question really is, If we enter the debate over describing the financial conditions, how do we get out of it? So when we meet next, I'm wondering how we'll then describe the financial conditions. Or if we stop any reference thereto, what is that saying? That is, I think these markets are adjusting in a very orderly way. I don't feel now, as I feared a few weeks ago, that we would have to say and do things to ensure that adjustment occurs. If we don't refer to these financial conditions and we continue to suggest that we think the economy will expand at a moderate pace over the coming quarters, that in itself shows that we have some degree of comfort that the financial market tumult hasn't really changed our central tendency. So though I'm comfortable with the honest depiction of all of alternative B, I worry a bit about what our exit strategy is. I can't come up with a better way in which to refer to financial conditions without inviting that discussion, and so I'm left with puzzlement about an exit strategy on that question. The most important thing that we're accomplishing in alternative B is suggesting that we aren't going to come to the rescue of market tumult, that market discipline is working, that we don't want complacency in the markets, and that our job is not to make sure that people make money in those markets. Our job, as many of you have said, is to keep the economy on an even keel. So with that, I favor alternative B, but I will remain a little uncomfortable until someone can tell how we answer the question about what we do next regarding the reference to still-favorable financial conditions.","[{'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': ""I also agree with President Plosser. I'll just register agreement with his concern about the capacity utilization language. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Thank you. Governor Warsh. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': ""These concerns have given me the jitters as well both because I would prefer stronger growth to less and because at times in the past such concerns have deterred needed action on inflation.So to repeat, I'm okay leaving the fed funds rate unchanged.As I said, I do believe we will need to tighten this year to reduce inflation, but this doesn't seem like a propitious time to do so.With regard to the statement, I very much agree with President Hoenig.I'm not sure I understand what the language in section 4 is supposed to convey.On the one hand, it seems to retain and even strengthen our anti-inflation tilt by labeling inflation our principal policy concern.On the other hand, the move to symmetric language in the second sentence would seem to remove a tightening bias.Thus these sentences seem to work in opposite directions.So more broadly, I agree with President Hoenig.We should not be loosening the sense of our tightening bias in this statement.I also agree with President Plosser.I'll just register agreement with his concern about the capacity utilization language.Thank you, Mr. Chairman.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Thank you.Governor Warsh.'}]",yes,yes,,contradiction,utterance
121,122,19990630_256_4,MR. BERNARD.,"""Yes Governor Gramlich""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""As I read the Committee, we're strongly in support of a 25 basis point increase and modestly in support of symmetry. So I would suggest that we read the directive in that context and then proceed to vote. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'This time we\'re on page 22 of the Bluebook, at the bottom of the page: ""To promote the Committee\'s long-run objectives of price stability and sustainable economic growth, the Committee in the immediate future seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with increasing the federal funds rate to an average of around 5 percent. In view of the evidence currently available, the Committee believes that prospective developments are equally likely to warrant an increase or a decrease in the federal funds rate operating objective during the intermeeting period."" '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Let's vote. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""There will be more uncertainty about how we're using this language.Frankly, without an asymmetric tilt, I think we're likely to see the market get ahead of itself--experience a somewhat euphoric increase, thinking that we are not engaged in the kind of tightening that I believe most people think is necessary.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Thank you.As I read the Committee, we're strongly in support of a 25 basis point increase and modestly in support of symmetry.So I would suggest that we read the directive in that context and then proceed to vote.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'This time we\'re on page 22 of the Bluebook, at the bottom of the page: ""To promote the Committee\'s long-run objectives of price stability and sustainable economic growth, the Committee in the immediate future seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with increasing the federal funds rate to an average of around 5 percent.In view of the evidence currently available, the Committee believes that prospective developments are equally likely to warrant an increase or a decrease in the federal funds rate operating objective during the intermeeting period.""'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Let's vote.""}]",no,,,,
122,123,19910703_136_4,MR. PARRY.,"""However, I should point out that total District employment still remains 0.4 of a percent above the May 1990 level, with California the only District state to lose employment over the year.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""I think we have a real opportunity here to make significant progress--the best we've had since I've been around. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""The coffee is here and I neglected to take the break; I notice everyone is running for coffee, so why don't we take a short break and come back in 5 minutes? ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Begin, s'il vous plait! ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""So, what we've done is to assume that M2 will come in slightly above the midpoint of its current range this year and that the FOMC will lower the range for 1992 to 2 to 6 percent and will hold the actual growth of money within that range.This assumption of a lower target range for 1992 has a direct bearing on our projection since we believe, given the background of very favorable behavior in the money supply over the last few years, that reducing the range further would increase significantly the credibility of our anti-inflationary strategy and, consequently, would result in a more favorable division of nominal GNP between real growth and inflation--because of [how we factor in] forward-looking expectations, Lee.And without that strategy [unintelligible].If we achieve what we think are these highly plausible results, then we think the prospects of the subsequent years after 1992 will be very bright indeed.I think we have a real opportunity here to make significant progress--the best we've had since I've been around.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""The coffee is here and I neglected to take the break; I notice everyone is running for coffee, so why don't we take a short break and come back in 5 minutes?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Begin, s'il vous plait!""}]",no,,,,
123,124,19770719_282_1,CHAIRMAN BURNS.,"""Any other questions or comment.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'The government stockpile program will add $3 billion to oil imports currently estimated for 1978. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'So you are saying that the entire swing in net exports is an oil-related phenomenon. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'Yes, most of it. Most of it is a swing in the irregularity of it, if I can put it that way. Yes. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'Well, basically, as is often the case in the international area, that is an oil-related phenomenon.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'That is what?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""An oil-related phenomenon.You had a big buildup in oil imports in the first quarter.A combination between that buildup, which was weather related, and Alaskan oil coming in, which damps down our rate of growth in imports--in fact, reduces it.It's largely what gives you that swing between the first and fourth quarter.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'What brings you back up then?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'What brings you back is the end of a sort of honeymoon with Alaskan oil, where the marginal supply, as the economy grows, starts coming from imports again.Plus, the [oil] stockpile program.The government stockpile program will add $3 billion to oil imports currently estimated for 1978.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'So you are saying that the entire swing in net exports is an oil-related phenomenon.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'Yes, most of it.Most of it is a swing in the irregularity of it, if I can put it that way.Yes.'}]",no,,,,
124,125,19771220_294_1,MR. PARTEE.,"""But the exchange rate is taken in for financial assets, and therefore they will have appreciation.""",,"[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'And of course, for many U.S. companies [with] operations abroad, it has a direct impact on their profits. And it makes an already not-very-robust profit picture look worse in terms of reported profits-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'Particularly FASB 8 [Statement No. 8 of the Financial Accounting Standards Board]. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Have I-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""That's an accounting rule under which the losses on foreign exchange due to foreign exchange liability must be taken directly into each quarter's profit. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""And partly psychologically as well as through its direct effects in terms of the trade balance, I think this has certainly reached a point where the concern in some of the other major economies, specifically Japan and Germany, may affect their investment activity and economic activity, and that may have a sharper [negative] effect on our trade balance in the short run than any [positive] effect of the change in the currency value itself.You referred to the political uncertainties and problems surrounding gold.I think the decline in the dollar itself is becoming a political problem that can't be ignored.And the volatility of the market is presenting us with some unknown risks, harking back to [the closing of the] Herstatt [bank] and all the rest, that we don't know about.But it can make one a little bit nervous when one sees the amount of speculative activity that has been spawned in recent weeks.And of course, for many U.S. companies [with] operations abroad, it has a direct impact on their profits.And it makes an already not-very-robust profit picture look worse in terms of reported profits--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'Particularly FASB 8 [Statement No. 8 of the Financial Accounting Standards Board].'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Have I--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""That's an accounting rule under which the losses on foreign exchange due to foreign exchange liability must be taken directly into each quarter's profit.""}]",no,,,,
125,126,20081216_51_2,MR. LACKER.,"""It guarantees the commercial paper rate.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. WILCOX.', 'text': ""There's one little detail that is causing another piece of friction in the market, and that is that, if the servicer doesn't perform on the loan, then the Department of Education has the right to not make good on the guarantee. But other than that, it's about 97 percent guaranteed. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': ""We think they're pretty safe--not perfectly safe, but pretty safe. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': 'Okay. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. WILCOX.', 'text': 'Apparently the ability of the Department of Education not to make good on the guarantee is very rarely exercised. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': ""So I think it's a slightly different thing.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': ""Well, wouldn't investors want to discount or take into account the fact that the trust, which is their only source of payment, is earning about 300 basis points less than the coupon?Wouldn't that show up in a higher premium on what the investor is willing to pay?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': ""I don't see it that way.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WILCOX.', 'text': ""President Lacker, it's a complicated security, but it's wrapped by a guarantee that ultimately the Department of Education will make good on to the tune of 97 cents on the dollar.There's one little detail that is causing another piece of friction in the market, and that is that, if the servicer doesn't perform on the loan, then the Department of Education has the right to not make good on the guarantee.But other than that, it's about 97 percent guaranteed.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': ""We think they're pretty safe--not perfectly safe, but pretty safe.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': 'Okay.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WILCOX.', 'text': 'Apparently the ability of the Department of Education not to make good on the guarantee is very rarely exercised.'}]",no,,,,
126,127,19861216_613_2,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Presumably, the directive will get interpreted in that light anyway, which [unintelligible] arguments.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Let me write it down here. It took me some time to figure out how to spell it. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""We've had less-- ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""It seems like we can kill two birds with one stone with that. I don't think the implications are great one way or the other but if some sort of asymmetry in the language would represent our current feeling--and maybe I'm wrong interpreting it that way--that we actually believe that the economy is going to show weakness, the timing [of the directive's publication] would be associated with the actual event. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""It may not offset other things if it [unintelligible] but that's my own view on it.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'But would you be easing policy through the Desk or would you be considering a discount rate decrease under those circumstances?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Subsidiary questions.Well, you know this is not a federal case.Gee, we've got a whole hour that we can--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'We can make a federal case out of it.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Can we spend an hour talking about symmetry?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'That would be making it a federal case!'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Let me write it down here.It took me some time to figure out how to spell it.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""We've had less--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""It seems like we can kill two birds with one stone with that.I don't think the implications are great one way or the other but if some sort of asymmetry in the language would represent our current feeling--and maybe I'm wrong interpreting it that way--that we actually believe that the economy is going to show weakness, the timing [of the directive's publication] would be associated with the actual event.""}]",no,,,,
127,128,20051101_12_2,MR. REINHART.,"""[Laughter]""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': 'What we do is take the energy futures curve, take the weight in the CPI-- '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Yes, but I never saw the result. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': 'Actually, Governor Ferguson saw something very similar just this week. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""That still doesn't answer my question! [Laughter] ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOS.', 'text': 'Then again, maybe the reaction will come with a lag that is longer than usual.Mr. Chairman, there were no foreign operations in this period.I will need a vote to approve domestic operations.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Thank you.I notice that we still don't endeavor to calculate the implicit 2- or 5-year break-even inflation rates--subtracting out the implicit CPI forecast from what the futures markets are telling us about energy prices to get inferentially what the CPI ex food and energy would be if one presumes that the energy futures markets are arbitraged against the TIPS.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOS.', 'text': ""I may be wrong, but didn't we do--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': 'We have a cottage industry, Mr. Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I don't recall seeing any calculations recently.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOS.', 'text': 'I think this question came up about a year ago, and Vincent was summarizing the work that had been done.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': 'What we do is take the energy futures curve, take the weight in the CPI--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Yes, but I never saw the result.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': 'Actually, Governor Ferguson saw something very similar just this week.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""That still doesn't answer my question![Laughter]""}]",no,,,,
128,129,19790918_13_5,MR. PARDEE.,"""It's just that we are caught in this box.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Balles. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I don't know what credence we ought to put in the rumors, and maybe we shouldn't even bring them to this table. One of my directors called up very excited yesterday about a rumor that the dollar was going to be devalued, mind you, sometime in October. I suspect, but I don't really know, that this is a pretty distorted view of what comes out of the press reports about a possible realignment of European currencies from the meeting scheduled this coming weekend. Is there anything that we ought to know about that or are you in a position to tell us? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': ""Won't that still be their primary concern in terms of the market?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARDEE.', 'text': ""Well, the market is concerned about inflation however it is induced.There are some monetarists in the market who do follow closely the aggregates, but they are just one segment.There are others who worry about other things.There are even some chartists out there who couldn't care less about any of these broader numbers that we work with.But they are concerned about inflation, however it is induced.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Balles.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I don't know what credence we ought to put in the rumors, and maybe we shouldn't even bring them to this table.One of my directors called up very excited yesterday about a rumor that the dollar was going to be devalued, mind you, sometime in October.I suspect, but I don't really know, that this is a pretty distorted view of what comes out of the press reports about a possible realignment of European currencies from the meeting scheduled this coming weekend.Is there anything that we ought to know about that or are you in a position to tell us?""}]",no,,,,
129,130,19830209_1050_2,MR. BOEHNE.,"""I think we have to ease the funds rate down to around 8 percent before a discount rate cut.""","The last time it was done, it was done before the funds rate was dropped. I think we have to ease the funds rate down to around 8 percent before a discount rate cut.","[{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""I agree with Lyle that 50 basis points isn't going to make a lot of difference except for the psychological impact that that 50 basis points may have in the market. And we need it now, not at the end of March. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'It could have the same psychological impact we had the last time we made that move. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""That's a risk. I'm just saying the risk is on the up side. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We could just leave it there or add something after that, such as ""in the context of appreciable slowing of growth in the aggregates, or further evidence of low velocity, or further evidence of unusual demands for liquidity, or evidence of unexpected weakness in the economy.""We could put in any of those things.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""I'm with Karen, Mr. Chairman.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'I would like to add ""unexpected weakness in the economy"" because it could be that the January numbers are a fluke.I think that\'s what we\'re basically aiming at anyway: to restart an economic recovery.And we need a window to do it with, if it turns out that way.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""That doesn't really satisfy the objective that I have because we would have to wait for this evidence to come forth.I agree with Lyle that 50 basis points isn't going to make a lot of difference except for the psychological impact that that 50 basis points may have in the market.And we need it now, not at the end of March.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'It could have the same psychological impact we had the last time we made that move.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""That's a risk.I'm just saying the risk is on the up side.""}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,sentence
130,131,19770517_244_1,MR. MORRIS.,"""Mr. Chairman, could I clarify your proposal?""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'But I think we ought to be quite prepared to use the latitude in the federal funds range if the aggregates in fact do tend to come in higher than we are estimating. I think the economy is quite strong. I would not be surprised to see more strength than some of my colleagues think will be there. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Black. Mr. Morris now, please. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""But at the same time, as Governor Partee has pointed out, we ought to be careful to note that, historically, the second quarter in the last couple of years has been rather strong, and the third quarter has been somewhat weak.And I think we ought to take that into consideration in reaching our decision today.And I think it's also worth noting that, while M1 has accelerated pretty sharply in the current quarter, M2 is moving less rapidly and may move even less rapidly than that in the future.And in view of all of this and our having moved the fed funds rate up by over 50 [basis points] fairly quickly , I would be inclined to stay about where we are at present.And I would buy your specifications, Mr. Chairman, and the monetary aggregates directive.But I think we ought to be quite prepared to use the latitude in the federal funds range if the aggregates in fact do tend to come in higher than we are estimating.I think the economy is quite strong.I would not be surprised to see more strength than some of my colleagues think will be there.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Black.Mr. Morris now, please.'}]",no,,,,
131,132,19861216_430_4,MR. KICHLINE.,"""It's a shade weaker than we had built into the forecast, but not much.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'On the price side, we believe there is somewhat greater risk. But in general I would be quite satisfied if we achieved the 2.7 percent growth that the Board staff is looking for next year. As Mrs. Horn was saying, that sort of growth rate tends to facilitate the kind of adjustment that we need to see in order to get the trade situation into better balance. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""[The staff's forecast is] 2.8 percent, to be precise. A few people were talking about housing starts; a housing starts figure came out this morning, which I am sure Mr. Kichline can report to you. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""There continues to be anxiety about the Christmas selling season; there is evidence of a lot of promotional activity in the newspapers and some talk of price cutting, but that still remains to be seen.I would say that in general the anxieties remain what we have heard about before--in terms of the consumer in the first quarter of next year, capital spending early next year, and so forth.Overall, our outlook on economic activity would be somewhat stronger than the Board staff's, though not substantially.On the price side, we believe there is somewhat greater risk.But in general I would be quite satisfied if we achieved the 2.7 percent growth that the Board staff is looking for next year.As Mrs. Horn was saying, that sort of growth rate tends to facilitate the kind of adjustment that we need to see in order to get the trade situation into better balance.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""[The staff's forecast is] 2.8 percent, to be precise.A few people were talking about housing starts; a housing starts figure came out this morning, which I am sure Mr. Kichline can report to you.""}]",no,,,,
132,133,19990203_250_1,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""We can make a lot of changes ourselves because the statute itself is not all the explicit.""",We can make a lot of changes ourselves because the statute itself is not all the explicit.,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""That's a good point. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The more I think about it, the more it strikes me as being subtly obvious. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'Yes, I agree. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'We may actually be better off with the same legislation. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': 'We can make some changes without changing the Act. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Why don't we leave it there, then?""}, {'speaker': 'MS. RIVLIN.', 'text': 'May I raise a technical point as a word of caution?If we start to indicate what we would like future Humphrey-Hawkins reports to include, in terms of what we would want specified in the law, we will not get the last word.They will.Every member of the Banking Committee is going to have an idea about what ought to be in the law, and the easiest thing for the Chairman of that committee to do is to put them all in.I think we should not encourage a rewriting of the law, even though I personally would like to get rid of the monetary ranges, because once we start down that road we might end up a lot worse off than we are now.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'That is indeed a thoughtful comment.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""That's a good point.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The more I think about it, the more it strikes me as being subtly obvious.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'Yes, I agree.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'We may actually be better off with the same legislation.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': 'We can make some changes without changing the Act.'}]",no,,,,
133,134,19770816_320_1,CHAIRMAN BURNS.,"""May I just say I don't think that that recommendation is consistent with your recommendation on lowering the limits for M1.""","May I just say I don't think that that recommendation is consistent with your recommendation on lowering the limits for M1. The reason for lowering the lower limit [on money] is not to tap lower interest rates very quickly. But if you permit the lower limit [of the federal funds rate] to go down to 5-1/2, you may be forced to do that--","[{'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""I'm talking about publications. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""Well, that's what I wanted to clarify. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'On the federal funds rate, I am disturbed about this concentration and limitation on the range. And I would hope if we are going to look at these widened ranges of M1 and M2 that we would also widen the range on the federal funds rate, and I would suggest to the Committee a 5-1/2 to 6-1/2 rate, which centers upon where the Desk is supposedly now, at 6 percent. One other comment, Mr. Chairman, to the general paragraphs of the directive-- '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'I had suggested in my jotted notes here that we might go down to a 1 to 6 frame [for M1][and] in the 3-1/2 to 8-1/2 range [for M2], but I would be willing to go to zero on the M1.I would not want to see a negative figure.As far as the funds--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Let me just stop you there to ask a question.I would not want to publish a negative figure.I would welcome a negative figure if it just developed naturally.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""I'm talking about publications.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""Well, that's what I wanted to clarify.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'On the federal funds rate, I am disturbed about this concentration and limitation on the range.And I would hope if we are going to look at these widened ranges of M1 and M2 that we would also widen the range on the federal funds rate, and I would suggest to the Committee a 5-1/2 to 6-1/2 rate, which centers upon where the Desk is supposedly now, at 6 percent.One other comment, Mr. Chairman, to the general paragraphs of the directive--'}]",yes,yes,sentence,neutral,
134,135,19820701_587_8,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Then we'd come to our federal funds limitation, anyway, at some point.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I don't either. That's hard to do, of course, because it depends on what happens to the aggregates. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""It's hard to do unless we specify a range, which captures that element. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MEEK.', 'text': ""Let me just say that I think the publication of these numbers, if they hold up, will itself change some expectations in the market about what we're likely to do in July and beyond. There could be a substantial sense-- ""}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'And if we get too much downward movement in short rates in July, they may not believe it is sustainable and we will not get as healthy an effect as we could get in the bond market.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Or even in the short-term market.It is not just the speed of the reduction; it's whether the reduction is convincing in terms of what the market itself observes.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'We have in the past, at least once, specified a declining level of borrowing over the intermeeting period.That would get to your point, Tony, of trying to bring it down gradually over a period of time.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't remember.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""I don't remember, Paul.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I don't either.That's hard to do, of course, because it depends on what happens to the aggregates.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""It's hard to do unless we specify a range, which captures that element.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MEEK.', 'text': ""Let me just say that I think the publication of these numbers, if they hold up, will itself change some expectations in the market about what we're likely to do in July and beyond.There could be a substantial sense--""}]",no,,,,
135,136,19850710_105_13,MR. STERN.,"""You hear about layoffs in high-tech companies or one or two of the computer firms and you get the impression that employment is dropping, net; and yet you look at the data and [don't see it].""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Why are you pessimistic on prices? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': 'Well, I think the exchange rate situation is likely to turn around a little; it seems to me that there are some underlying pressures there that will add to prices. And, frankly, it does seem to me that we have a monetary policy that provides a background in which the opportunity for price increases is really there. Over the last two or three months we have put a lot of money into the system and, if history is any guide, that ultimately ought to result in a higher level of prices. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Stern. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': 'We are doing this against the background of a highly stimulative fiscal policy and a monetary policy that I think is at least accommodative and, as a consequence, at this point the risk of a recession or any significant downside run from the forecast is somewhat unlikely.Therefore, I agree with Mr. Morris that the opportunity is for a continued expansion, perhaps at about the rate that is suggested.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""You have a forecast very close to the staff's on real GNP; you're quite a lot higher on prices.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""Right.If we have any bias, it's that the inflation rate will be higher than the staff is suggesting.Our GNP number in terms of real growth is just a touch on the higher side.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Why are you pessimistic on prices?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': 'Well, I think the exchange rate situation is likely to turn around a little; it seems to me that there are some underlying pressures there that will add to prices.And, frankly, it does seem to me that we have a monetary policy that provides a background in which the opportunity for price increases is really there.Over the last two or three months we have put a lot of money into the system and, if history is any guide, that ultimately ought to result in a higher level of prices.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Stern.'}]",no,,,,
136,137,19831115_700_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Put 5 to 6 percent?""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think we can either put in 5 to 6 percent percent or 7 percent or less. Or we can change it to October through December and leave it at 7 percent. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I think I prefer September to December, Paul. We [generally] follow this policy and I'd keep it. And I think 5 to 6 percent sounds like a quite respectful growth rate. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We could just put a semicolon and say ""lesser restraint would be acceptable...""'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'How about ""might be acceptable""?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, that's all right.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Now, what number do you want to put in there?'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""Shouldn't we put 7-1/2 percent?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We had 7 percent before?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think if we leave 7 percent, we have to put 7 percent or less.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': '""Or somewhat more.""It\'s 7-1/2 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""It's 5-1/2 percent.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'But we could change it to read October through December.Then we could put 7 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, we could do thatbut it's fine-tuning.I think we can either put in 5 to 6 percent percent or 7 percent or less.Or we can change it to October through December and leave it at 7 percent.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I think I prefer September to December, Paul.We [generally] follow this policy and I'd keep it.And I think 5 to 6 percent sounds like a quite respectful growth rate.""}]",no,,,,
137,138,19981117_284_2,MR. BERNARD.,"""Vice Chairman McDonough Yes Governor Ferguson""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': '[Laughter] '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'The directive language is: ""In the implementation of policy for the immediate future, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with decreasing the federal funds rate to an average of around 4-3/4 percent. In the context of the Committee\'s long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful consideration to economic, financial, and monetary developments, a slightly higher federal funds rate or a slightly lower federal funds rate would be acceptable in the intermeeting period. The contemplated reserve conditions are expected to be consistent with some moderation in growth in M2 and M3 over coming months."" '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Call the roll. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Okay, I think we have a majority for ""A"" symmetric, 25 basis points.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'I have a question, Mr. Chairman, regarding the final sentence.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'David Lindsey, we are still using the old directive.Do we still want to use the word ""moderation""?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': '""Moderate"" instead of ""some moderation""?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'No, I would stick with the language we have been using, ""some moderation.""That is the staff forecast for coming months.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'Less immoderate?[Laughter]'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'The directive language is: ""In the implementation of policy for the immediate future, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with decreasing the federal funds rate to an average of around 4-3/4 percent.In the context of the Committee\'s long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful consideration to economic, financial, and monetary developments, a slightly higher federal funds rate or a slightly lower federal funds rate would be acceptable in the intermeeting period.The contemplated reserve conditions are expected to be consistent with some moderation in growth in M2 and M3 over coming months.""'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Call the roll.'}]",no,,,,
138,139,20031209_219_13,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""We can go later than that if you want.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'Also, I have a list of people from the last meeting who wanted to speak on this issue but we ran out of time '}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""Oh, I'm sorry. Did I speak out of turn? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': ""No, you did not speak out of turn. I recognized you, so by definition you didn't speak out of turn! ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""You indicated that the January discussion would not preclude that possibility.My concern is that an intensive amount of stress-testing of three alternatives with the same amount of moving parts--albeit phrased somewhat differently or focused somewhat differently--will result in our receiving huge papers on this topic five days, say, before the two-day meeting.We have enormous amounts of material to assimilate anyway, and this will give us no time to discuss any other proposal or perspective that might not be as well fleshed out as these.I'm worried that we're going to continue along a line here that I don't think has been very fruitful for us.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'Okay.The Chairman wants to speak, and then I want to respond to your comments.Also, I have a list of people from the last meeting who wanted to speak on this issue but we ran out of time'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""Oh, I'm sorry.Did I speak out of turn?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': ""No, you did not speak out of turn.I recognized you, so by definition you didn't speak out of turn!""}]",no,,,,
139,140,19780418_326_8,MR. COLDWELL.,"""[regarding] my expectations for the economy--that we are going to attack this inflation rate promptly and are likely to slow down the economy in the latter part of this year.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Phil Coldwell. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I find myself very compatible with what Paul Volcker just said. The 2 to 8 range seems terribly wide to me for M1 but I like the upper limit; the lower limit seems a bit low to me. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Where would you put the lower limit? '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""We could go along too easily, I think, going above the long-term range.The 6 to 10 also looks a trifle high to me.I would rather see that at 5-1/2 to 9-1/2 or even 5 to 9 and then just pinning down the federal funds a little closer.A range that I had in mind was 6-3/4 to 7-1/4--cutting off 1/4 point from where you had it--and probably going up toward 7 percent by the end of this week in view of the Treasury financing.I'd be very reluctant to go above 7 percent but if the aggregates get high enough, I would go above 7, which suggests an aggregates directive with some sticking point at 7 before going above it.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Okay.Phil Coldwell.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I find myself very compatible with what Paul Volcker just said.The 2 to 8 range seems terribly wide to me for M1but I like the upper limit; the lower limit seems a bit low to me.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Where would you put the lower limit?'}]",no,,,,
140,141,19800318_360_1,MR. SCHULTZ.,"""Unless we have a meeting.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""What happened to Richmond's projections? Is Richmond no longer in the projection business? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""We began to have as many misses as the Board's staff, so-- ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'So you gave it up? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I think it is correct to say, as of now anyway, that we're not going to resist the April bulge, whatever it is, beyond a federal funds rate of 20 percent. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""If it started coming in even as high as we have projected, we'd begin resisting.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't think we should kid ourselves, either.If the New York projections turned out to be right and there were enormous upward pressure[in April], I don't think we're saying we would raise the federal funds rate to 25 percent in order to get [money growth] down to the plus 6 percent [upper limit of our long-term range for M-1A].""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': ""We're not saying that, are we?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't think we're saying that.I just wanted to [clarify that].""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""The funds rate would not go over 20 percent, at least not without a meeting.What happened to Richmond's projections?Is Richmond no longer in the projection business?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""We began to have as many misses as the Board's staff, so--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'So you gave it up?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I think it is correct to say, as of now anyway, that we're not going to resist the April bulge, whatever it is, beyond a federal funds rate of 20 percent.""}]",no,,,,
141,142,19830713_1050_1,MR. BLACK.,"""You have to rewrite this.""",You have to rewrite this.,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'That is right. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Hope over experience. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'That leaves us with 5 to 9 percent for the remainder of this year and 5 to 9 percent for next year. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Well, the whole period could be spoken of as 5 to 9 percent. I wouldn't make that much of a distinction between the second half and next year. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'Heck, I want 4 to 7 percent next year.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, we could have 5 to 9 and 4 to 8.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'That would be my preference.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': 'That would be my preference.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, let's see how strong the support is for that: 5 to 9 percent for the rest of this year and 4 to 8 percent for next year.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'Assuming rebasing?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'This would be from June or the second quarter?SEVERAL.Second quarter.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""A second-quarter rebasing.That isn't tremendous [support].Who wants 4 to 8 and 4 to 8?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""I'm willing to rebase on June.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That's a bigger increase than what you indicated, Henry.That's a triumph of cosmetics over substance.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'That is right.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Hope over experience.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'That leaves us with 5 to 9 percent for the remainder of this year and 5 to 9 percent for next year.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Well, the whole period could be spoken of as 5 to 9 percent.I wouldn't make that much of a distinction between the second half and next year.""}]",yes,no,,,
142,143,20040504_182_14,MR. BROADDUS.,"""Jack, of course, is the President of the Atlanta Fed, which is the Sixth Federal Reserve District.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""I think that's an important follow-up to your testimony as well. Whatever way we look at it, I think we're stuck with sentence 8. We're probably going to take grief from some quarters for this new language, but I think we're stuck with doing this. So I agree with your recommendation. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Broaddus. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""So I look forward to seeing what is in store for us.I very much agree with what Don just said.I think if we left out sentence 8, we would be sending the wrong message.We actually could be sending the wrong message in another way.We could be interpreted as saying that everything is hunky-dory and that we don't have plans to remove the policy accommodation.That could be read as the message in the statement that the risks to the outlook are balanced, whereas sentence 8 does say positively that, all other things being equal, we're going to take the policy accommodation away.We plan to do it in a measured way, but we're going to do it.I think that's an important follow-up to your testimony as well.Whatever way we look at it, I think we're stuck with sentence 8.We're probably going to take grief from some quarters for this new language, but I think we're stuck with doing this.So I agree with your recommendation.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Broaddus.'}]",no,,,,
143,144,19900207_372_1,MR. BLACK.,"""Some of you are still there!""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': '""B,"" symmetric, Mr. Chairman. I really have no new thoughts to add to those that have already been suggested. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boykin. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I come out somewhere between ""B"" and ""C,"" as a matter of fact, recognizing all of the concerns that have been expressed: Financial fragility--we\'ve experienced some of that; credit rationing--we\'ve experienced some of that, and we\'re still there. Granted, the players sure have changed. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'They do a lot of things that contribute to inflation and I don\'t see how we can offset here all the bad policy moves that come out of the Congress.It may sound macho to beat our chest and pretend we can, but I think the cost to the economy of doing this is going to be very, very severe.So, I vote for ""A.""'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Melzer.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'I favor ""B,"" symmetric.There\'s no expectation of an easing of rates out there now and I don\'t see what we gain by creating one again.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': '""B,"" symmetric, Mr. Chairman.I really have no new thoughts to add to those that have already been suggested.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boykin.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I come out somewhere between ""B"" and ""C,"" as a matter of fact, recognizing all of the concerns that have been expressed: Financial fragility--we\'ve experienced some of that; credit rationing--we\'ve experienced some of that, and we\'re still there.Granted, the players sure have changed.'}]",no,,,,
144,145,20000202_212_3,MR. GUYNN.,"""I don't know whether we are going to talk about that some more this morning or not.""","I would like to join Bill Poole and Al Broaddus on the comments that you just heard. I, too, see considerable merit in moving in the direction of a more explicit inflation target. I don't know whether we are going to talk about that some more this morning or not. But particularly in the absence of such a target, I believe it is much smarter to leave the ranges alone for the moment. I think it could be distracting. We have some much more important policy work to do and I don't think we ought to confuse the message that we are sending to the public at the moment.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': ""The other thing that bothers me a little is that while I certainly have the sense that there has been an increase in trend productivity growth, I am uncertain how transitory it is and exactly what its magnitude is. So, I don't think the argument is absolutely ironclad. And if we go that route and try to explain it that way, that is going to involve our taking positions on things that I am not quite ready to take a position on yet. I don't see any particular reason to do that now. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Guynn. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': ""One can make a pretty solid argument for making a change, so I don't feel that strongly about not doing so.But if we do, I believe there is going to be a significant communications issue, as Bill Poole and Jerry Jordan and others have pointed out.To me, this whole discussion is a good argument for a numerical inflation target.We have to have a clear, nominal anchor in the long run.I think that is the key thing.So it is against that background that I would prefer to stay where we are.The other thing that bothers me a little is that while I certainly have the sense that there has been an increase in trend productivity growth, I am uncertain how transitory it is and exactly what its magnitude is.So, I don't think the argument is absolutely ironclad.And if we go that route and try to explain it that way, that is going to involve our taking positions on things that I am not quite ready to take a position on yet.I don't see any particular reason to do that now.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Guynn.'}]",no,,,,
145,147,19851105_49_9,MS. HORN.,"""but I think now their view is that the fiscal impasse will remain an impasse.""",,"[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I myself just can't see anything out there that is going to get growth up into the 3 to 3-1/2 percent range as opposed to the 2 to 3 percent range. For a long time I thought housing could make the difference in terms of that marginal contribution, but I can't see that now either. Looking across the sectors of the economy at this point, it is just awfully hard to find sources of marginal growth that would get us to a bit more respectable range on a forecast basis. On top of that, the anecdotal reports that I, at least, am getting from business people and directors and so on--for what they are worth--are distinctly on the sour side. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mrs. Horn. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'They are buying implements that might cost $50,000 to $60,0000 and picking them up for $15,000, $20,000, or $25,000.It is worth the trip out.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""That isn't recorded as consumer spending though, is it?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""No.But some farmers are spending.That's my point.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Does anyone have any more comments on the business scene?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I myself just can't see anything out there that is going to get growth up into the 3 to 3-1/2 percent range as opposed to the 2 to 3 percent range.For a long time I thought housing could make the difference in terms of that marginal contribution, but I can't see that now either.Looking across the sectors of the economy at this point, it is just awfully hard to find sources of marginal growth that would get us to a bit more respectable range on a forecast basis.On top of that, the anecdotal reports that I, at least, am getting from business people and directors and so on--for what they are worth--are distinctly on the sour side.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mrs. Horn.'}]",no,,,,
146,148,19800422_62_2,MR. AXILROD.,"""My memory is that there is genuine weakness in the unadjusted deposits.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'We thought we had a sure thing going with April because [the money supply in] April has bulged every year for the past 4 or 5 years it seems. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""You can't believe in anything anymore, can you? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""I'm not sure that I can pinpoint any special factor. I don't know if Steve wants to add anything. In New York our faces are even redder than those of the Board staff because we were anticipating an even greater bulge. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't know if you can arrange to get the swap repaid before then, Mr. Pardee.If not, let's negotiate vigorously so that the Treasury gets [the funds].""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Gets to realize its losses!'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Sternlight.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.]'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Balles.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""Peter, I'm very curious about what happened to the expected April bulge.As you know, the Committee was concerned that it not be allowed to happen.I'm not quite sure we were looking forward to a negative bulge.Do you have any insights into what was going on?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'Well, the aggregates have proved once again their lack of short-run predictability.We thought we had a sure thing going with April because [the money supply in] April has bulged every year for the past 4 or 5 years it seems.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""You can't believe in anything anymore, can you?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""I'm not sure that I can pinpoint any special factor.I don't know if Steve wants to add anything.In New York our faces are even redder than those of the Board staff because we were anticipating an even greater bulge.""}]",no,,,,
147,149,19780228_243_4,MR. WILLES.,"""[Inflation] does seem to be a concern that more of our people have, and for that reason the major difference we have with the staff forecast is on their expectation of inflation.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'But what really perplexes me, Mr. Chairman--and I don=t say this to be critical--is the fact that so many sitting here today can recognize, apparently all of a sudden, that one of the big problems we face is inflation and one of the big inhibiting factors that is stopping businessmen from engaging in capital formation projects is their concern about and their uncertainty with regard to inflation and that somehow, maybe somewhere along the line, monetary policy ought to concern itself with inflation. If that is literally something that is only occurring to us currently, Mr. Chairman, I don=t understand the rules of this game because we=ve all been talking about it for some time. I apologize for those remarks, but those are my observations. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Thank you for your remarks, Mr. Roos. Mr.Willes now. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'Some day I assume those problems will occur, but we always seem to be somewhat pessimistic.Maybe that=s a way those of you who are much more skilled in the science of economics than I hedge your bets.But what really perplexes me, Mr. Chairman--and I don=t say this to be critical--is the fact that so many sitting here today can recognize, apparently all of a sudden, that one of the big problems we face is inflation and one of the big inhibiting factors that is stopping businessmen from engaging in capital formation projects is their concern about and their uncertainty with regard to inflation and that somehow, maybe somewhere along the line, monetary policy ought to concern itself with inflation.If that is literally something that is only occurring to us currently, Mr. Chairman, I don=t understand the rules of this game because we=ve all been talking about it for some time.I apologize for those remarks, but those are my observations.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Thank you for your remarks, Mr. Roos.Mr.Willes now.'}]",no,,,,
148,150,19770118_143_3,CHAIRMAN BURNS.,"""And let's take perhaps a short break, coffee break, if you so wish.""","Gentlemen, let me just interrupt. I don't know why I was favored with this cup of coffee, but I was so favored, and therefore, if any of the rest of you would like coffee, you will not be so favored, but the coffee is right there. And let's take perhaps a short break, coffee break, if you so wish. Gentlemen, the coffee break is at an end. We'll defer the question of the appeal until we've taken up on the Sunshine legislation, and then return to that. Well, I'm sorry, first, [about having] to bring Sunshine legislation back to the Committee; and second, [about] not being prepared to make a recommendation. I think we need to know more before we act. But any advice that you may have, any thoughts that you may have, would be very helpful at this time.","[{'speaker': ""MR. O'CONNELL."", 'text': 'Does that respond to your question? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. JACKSON.', 'text': 'If we decide that we are not an agency covered by the statute, but do decide to publish as a public gesture the Committee rules of procedure, we are then not constrained as to time by the Administrative Procedures Act or the Sunshine Act, and therefore, we could publish our own voluntary and gratuitous disclosure any time prior to the effective date without having any time constraints otherwise. Is that correct? '}, {'speaker': ""MR. O'CONNELL."", 'text': ""As I understand your inquiry, we can have up until the eve of March 12 to issue whatever form of statement we intended to issue with respect to our proposed practices, that's correct. Thus, we could await the Board [of Governors] action in publishing a finally adopted set of regulations in final form, which might, say, come out the week before March 12, to issue our FOMC statement at the same time. ""}]","[{'speaker': ""MR. O'CONNELL."", 'text': 'There is item after item that I could take you through, were we covered, that make more difficult, more burdensome, [our] operation under the statute than if we were not under the statute but, in our own way, almost fully comply with the spirit of that statute.Does that respond to your question?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JACKSON.', 'text': 'If we decide that we are not an agency covered by the statute, but do decide to publish as a public gesture the Committee rules of procedure, we are then not constrained as to time by the Administrative Procedures Act or the Sunshine Act, and therefore, we could publish our own voluntary and gratuitous disclosure any time prior to the effective date without having any time constraints otherwise.Is that correct?'}, {'speaker': ""MR. O'CONNELL."", 'text': ""As I understand your inquiry, we can have up until the eve of March 12 to issue whatever form of statement we intended to issue with respect to our proposed practices, that's correct.Thus, we could await the Board [of Governors] action in publishing a finally adopted set of regulations in final form, which might, say, come out the week before March 12, to issue our FOMC statement at the same time.""}]",no,,,,
149,151,19770419_276_12,MR. GARDNER.,"""We are asked to do this tentatively, subject to our afterthoughts after the President's program is announced, and for that reason I would be happy with leaving M1 alone at the moment.""","I hope to be brief. The economic [situation], as Willis has just indicated, is clearly buoyant. It has rekindled more specific fears of inflation. We have to expect that. That was bound to happen whenever the economic data became clearly positive. It seems remarkable to me that with the dispensing of the rebate program, we've gone from fears of too much stimulus to fears based on the yet unannounced energy program, which clearly will have some significant impact, depending on its reception and development in the Congress. I often have taken the position of staying in place. I think clearly it is appropriate for us to continue reducing our targets or our ranges. I would support the reduction in M2 and M3 that is proposed; I would support a reduction in M2 as shown in alternative B, and M3 a half point on either end. But I think the principle is more important. I think we should make some changes. We are asked to do this tentatively, subject to our afterthoughts after the President's program is announced, and for that reason I would be happy with leaving M1 alone at the moment. We do have to look, in a minute, at where we are with M1 and where we will be in the next quarter with M1. And so I would support either a 7 to 9-1/2 or 6-1/2 to 9-1/2 for M2. Commensurately, an 8 to 11 or 8-1/2 to 11 for M3. I think that is the important action to be taken today--a one-year adoption which we will of course review again in three months.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Mr. Winn now, please. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. WINN.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I feel quite inadequate in trying to assess the psychological aspects of many of the current developments, but I feel rather strongly that the economic underlying factors are quite strong, and we may even see them stronger as the inventory scramble adds on to some of these other efforts here, as the inflation psychology builds to even a greater extent. I'd be inclined at this moment to indicate some decline in all of the items, and I would join with Mr. Wallich and Baughman. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Winn. Mr. Gardner now, please. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BAUGHMAN.', 'text': 'And I reconciled myself, I think pretty much because of what I judged to be the politics of the situation, to a stand-still posture during a couple months of high uncertainty with the fiscal stimulus program coming in.[But] it seems to me that, with that big uncertainty set aside, we should be moving a little further to try to improve the classroom performance.And I come out with the prescription that Governor Wallich came out with, which I believe, Mr. Chairman, is the same as yours except a small move on the bottom of the M1 range as well.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Baughman.Mr. Winn now, please.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WINN.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I feel quite inadequate in trying to assess the psychological aspects of many of the current developments, but I feel rather strongly that the economic underlying factors are quite strong, and we may even see them stronger as the inventory scramble adds on to some of these other efforts here, as the inflation psychology builds to even a greater extent.I'd be inclined at this moment to indicate some decline in all of the items, and I would join with Mr. Wallich and Baughman.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Winn.Mr. Gardner now, please.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,entailment,utterance
150,152,19770517_246_1,MR. MORRIS.,"""Well, I think that my feeling, Mr. Chairman, is that we ought to make a bigger move right now.""","Well, I think that my feeling, Mr. Chairman, is that we ought to make a bigger move right now. I think the economy is very strong. I think the lull that Mr. Partee and Mr. Eastburn speak of is certainly a possibility, but I don't see in the indicators any evidence that it's probable. We are faced with this April bulge in the money supply, which means that even if the staff's projections are correct for May and June, that we are going to come out with a very high M1 number. And in order to meet the midpoint of our longer-term ranges, this would mean M1 growth at 4 percent and M2 at 6.8 for the subsequent three quarters, and that, gentlemen, if our forecast is correct, is going to be very difficult to do. It seems to me that we need to take out some insurance today against the May and June aggregates coming in higher. And therefore, I would propose a funds range of 5 to 6 percent, with the Manager instructed to move to 5-1/2 next week. Now, unlike Mr. Partee, I don't view the spring of 1975 experience as a mistake. It seems to me that that's sort of the model that we ought to be thinking of in this kind of context. Because it seems to me that the move we made for the spring of 1975--because it was reversed rapidly as the evidence came in showing that we didn't have a permanent increase in the demand for money--we didn't harm the economy. But if we had been right, and there was a big increase in the demand for money, we would have been in a much better posture to meet it, and--","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, could I clarify your proposal? Do I understand you properly that you keep the funds rate at around 5-1/4 and only move it up if we were hitting the higher part of the ranges? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""No, I would use the federal funds rate range in the normal fashion, and the federal funds rate now is closer to 5-3/8 than it is to 5-1/4--that's my understanding. And I would leave it where it is for a week or so, and then depending on how our estimates of the monetary aggregates come in, move within the indicated range. But the [center point of the] indicated range that I suggested is asymmetrical. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'But I think we ought to be quite prepared to use the latitude in the federal funds range if the aggregates in fact do tend to come in higher than we are estimating.I think the economy is quite strong.I would not be surprised to see more strength than some of my colleagues think will be there.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Black.Mr. Morris now, please.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, could I clarify your proposal?Do I understand you properly that you keep the funds rate at around 5-1/4 and only move it up if we were hitting the higher part of the ranges?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""No, I would use the federal funds rate range in the normal fashion, and the federal funds rate now is closer to 5-3/8 than it is to 5-1/4--that's my understanding.And I would leave it where it is for a week or so, and then depending on how our estimates of the monetary aggregates come in, move within the indicated range.But the [center point of the] indicated range that I suggested is asymmetrical.""}]",yes,yes,utterance,entailment,-5 sentences
151,153,19770621_411_1,MR. O'CONNELL.,"""Yes, I think that, too, can be a matter to await a decision.""","Yes, I think that, too, can be a matter to await a decision. I agree with President Mayo that, at this time--or, may I suggest, Mr. Chairman, the [discussion], first, as to whether or not you will continue this operation, is appropriate; and then, whatever sense of the Committee [is] in terms of the alternative, to follow that.","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I think that's right, and I don't think we need to know specifically which approach will be adopted in the end. I think we need to know that one of the three will be adopted. That decision, I think, should be made today. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': 'So the decision is basically whether the facility is worthwhile or not? '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Although, I guess in applying for the ruling, [we] will have to apply either in our [Federal Reserve Bank of New York] name or the System name, won't we. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GARDNER.', 'text': 'Paul, you are suggesting, really, that we continue under the first approach and consider, after the IRS ruling, whether to adopt the second or the third approach.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Right.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GARDNER.', 'text': ""Now, you've already had a meeting of the FOMC to discuss this by telephone.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'It was not a meeting.It was an informal discussion.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GARDNER.', 'text': 'Informal discussion, all right.I have a strong preference for the second approach, but I will deal with that as you find it in order to be dealt with.Because we are not going to make, according to your specifications, a final decision.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I think that's right, and I don't think we need to know specifically which approach will be adopted in the end.I think we need to know that one of the three will be adopted.That decision, I think, should be made today.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': 'So the decision is basically whether the facility is worthwhile or not?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Although, I guess in applying for the ruling, [we] will have to apply either in our [Federal Reserve Bank of New York] name or the System name, won't we.""}]",yes,no,,,
152,154,19770719_81_5,MR. ZEISEL.,"""But on the negative side, we've had an extremely rapid recovery recently in residential construction activity.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""But at the same time, I see some things that suggest to me that strongly expansive factors may be at work, especially the federal deficit. We've got a rise in the federal deficit projected in a range, I guess, of $10 billion to $15 billion. And state and local expenditures, which I haven't observed, apparently are growing very sharply--there may be some overlap here. Can you give us an evaluation of these conflicting elements pushing very strongly and yet the overall tendency [going] toward slowing down? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""With the rate of expansion that is indicated--that is, a slowing in 1978 even below 5 percent--I don't see much wrong because, as time goes by, we are getting closer to the full-employment ceiling and, even sooner probably, to the manufacturing capacity ceiling, the capital stock ceiling.So we have to think of not going much above the trend rates of growth as we get in the neighborhood of these limits.And I guess that slowdown is in the works now.But at the same time, I see some things that suggest to me that strongly expansive factors may be at work, especially the federal deficit.We've got a rise in the federal deficit projected in a range, I guess, of $10 billion to $15 billion.And state and local expenditures, which I haven't observed, apparently are growing very sharply--there may be some overlap here.Can you give us an evaluation of these conflicting elements pushing very strongly and yet the overall tendency[going] toward slowing down?""}]",no,,,,
153,155,19770816_286_1,MR. MAYO.,"""Oh, I understand that, Steve.""","Oh, I understand that, Steve.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': 'The absurdity of that has stayed with me to this day and, I guess, colors what I have to say. End of second speech. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""President Mayo, I think there might be a misunderstanding of how we make the projections. The projections for the period between Committee meetings--well, we have a variety of projections, and models, and what have you. But the basic judgmental projection--sometimes that's adjusted on the basis of the model results--but the basic judgmental projection is made from unadjusted weekly data. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': ""We are entitled to our best evaluation of the seasonal.But if I may take one more minute of the Committee's time.Thirty years ago I was in charge of doing the revenue estimating base in the Treasury.We had to get our base figures from Commerce.Obviously you do your revenue estimates not as seasonally adjusted figures; you do them unadjusted.The Department of Commerce was able to give us unadjusted figures on everything except farm and nonfarm entrepreneurial income, where they had to go to great lengths to create unadjusted figures for us to use in the Treasury.The absurdity of that has stayed with me to this day and, I guess, colors what I have to say.End of second speech.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""President Mayo, I think there might be a misunderstanding of how we make the projections.The projections for the period between Committee meetings--well, we have a variety of projections, and models, and what have you.But the basic judgmental projection--sometimes that's adjusted on the basis of the model results--but the basic judgmental projection is made from unadjusted weekly data.""}]",no,,,,
154,156,19771018_266_3,CHAIRMAN BURNS.,"""But I've got to go to another meeting, and I believe the Bank Presidents have scheduled a meeting to start at 5:00.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'If one factors in that probability, one-- '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'And assumes great wisdom. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': '--assumes great wisdom--I was going to say this raises other risks. It raises risks of acceleration of inflation; it reduces, I think, the chances of a downturn. So all that I wanted to say is that, in the absence of new action, I think that the staff is more on the high side than I would be. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'Now, I think if one wanted to make the realistic assessment of the situation, it is that we may very well get a stimulus from the Administration during the course of the year.The Administration talks about a 5 percent rate of growth during 1978--that is well above what we think.They say that action would be taken if we fell below that, but what that action would be, how effective it would be, how long it would take to get it enacted, and how soon it would become effective is all very uncertain.I would guess that the evolution of the numbers that we have here in the staff [forecast] might trigger quite early pressure from the Administration for some kind of fiscal action.If one factors in that probability, one--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'And assumes great wisdom.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': '--assumes great wisdom--I was going to say this raises other risks.It raises risks of acceleration of inflation; it reduces, I think, the chances of a downturn.So all that I wanted to say is that, in the absence of new action, I think that the staff is more on the high side than I would be.'}]",no,,,,
155,157,19771018_435_2,MR. PARTEE.,"""I look at the economy and I wonder whether it's the kind of an economy in which we want to have a substantial rise in interest rates, a substantial shift in the flow of funds away from the thrifts and the banks into the market, and the characteristics of a tightening in the old terms, a tightening financial environment.""","Well, Mr. Chairman, I'm in a real quandary today. I look at the economy and I wonder whether it's the kind of an economy in which we want to have a substantial rise in interest rates, a substantial shift in the flow of funds away from the thrifts and the banks into the market, and the characteristics of a tightening in the old terms, a tightening financial environment. On the other hand, I look at the aggregates and I see that we've clearly been over, and way over in M1, for a couple of quarters. I guess this is the time, or very close to it, when you really have to test [people's] confidence in the guides by which they run, and I have to admit to you that my confidence in the aggregates is very badly shaken. And if I had my preference, I would not specify aggregates because I'm afraid we've gotten ourselves into a trap. I'm particularly concerned, as Governor Wallich is, that what's going to happen, regardless of what we specify in the way of aggregates, is that the demand function for money has shifted. And if we're going to continue to have a fairly rapid--although not as rapid as it has been here over the summer--increase in M1, and I dearly hope that President Willes is wrong, and then we wouldn't, in an environment like that, seek to get down within the target range for M1 regardless of the consequences for the economy. Because the economy simply, in my view, is not strong enough to support a substantial rise in interest rates. I sit here right across from the chart on selected monetary indicators. I find that the third quarter saw an increase of about 150 basis points in Treasury bills, from about 4-1/2 or maybe slightly more, to something over 6 percent. It is true that long-term rates haven't moved much this year on balance, but they have moved since the last meeting. They are tending up a little.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""But any stimulus one gets from the supply side of the economy, in view of expectations of inflation, gets quickly undone by reactions on the demand side, with consumers saving more as a percent of their income when unanticipated inflation occurs, spending relatively less, and that feeding back on orders and production and business incentives to spend on plant and equipment. So all things considered, in view of the significant overshoots that have already occurred, say, in the third quarter, or even for the past year, [and] that our new ranges will be occurring from a higher base for both M1 and M2, I would come out net net for the specifications of alternative B. But as in the case of Mr. Kimbrel, I think I'd go a little step further as a preference to lower the upper end of the M1 range to 6 percent instead of the present 6-1/2. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. [Balles]. Mr. Partee. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""But in terms of my own view, I am leaning increasingly toward the belief that there is little if any real tradeoff between inflation and unemployment, based on some work that has been done by various sources, including our own staff.But any stimulus one gets from the supply side of the economy, in view of expectations of inflation, gets quickly undone by reactions on the demand side, with consumers saving more as a percent of their income when unanticipated inflation occurs, spending relatively less, andthat feeding back on orders and production and business incentives to spend on plant and equipment.So all things considered, in view of the significant overshoots that have already occurred, say, in the third quarter, or even for the past year, [and] that our new ranges will be occurring from a higher base for both M1 and M2, I would come out net net for the specifications of alternative B. But as in the case of Mr. Kimbrel, I think I'd go a little step further as a preference to lower the upper end of the M1 range to 6 percent instead of the present 6-1/2.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. [Balles].Mr. Partee.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,utterance
156,158,19771018_442_2,CHAIRMAN BURNS.,"""Now, Mr. Lilly, you got this room cooled off.""","Strange things have happened in this room. Now, Mr. Lilly, you got this room cooled off.","[{'speaker': 'MR. WINN.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I'd like to note to the Committee that this is the period in our discussion when time is standing still. I'd like to follow Chuck's comments-- ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Let me just interrupt. Now, somebody on earth or in Heaven, is, I think, sensing the mood of the Committee and controlling the clock. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. LILLY.', 'text': 'We are now a legislative body; they do this all the time. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Mainly, I wouldn't give so much the [reason] that we want to cut back on housing, but mainly on the basis of interest rate relationships and past behavior and to say we would continue to watch the situation quite carefully.As far as the overrun is concerned, I know it's very substantial.We've had previously offsetting quarters of overshoot and undershoot, and now we've had two quarters of consecutive overshoot, and that's what makes it look as bad as it does, Mark.It's partly that this pattern was broken, but I think we simply have to accept it on the grounds that to do otherwise would just be too debilitating to the near-term prospects of the economy.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Partee.Mr. Winn next, please.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WINN.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I'd like to note to the Committee that this is the period in our discussion when time is standing still.I'd like to follow Chuck's comments--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Let me just interrupt.Now, somebody on earth or in Heaven, is, I think, sensing the mood of the Committee and controlling the clock.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LILLY.', 'text': 'We are now a legislative body; they do this all the time.'}]",no,,,,
157,159,19771115_137_2,MR. BLACK.,"""I just mean over the future.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""And similarly, if we're forced to make these directives available immediately, I think that strengthens the case for looking further into the possibility of using a reserves target rather than a federal funds target, so that the interest rate movements in the federal funds market will not have this significance that they now do. With, perhaps, a proviso to limit the fluctuations beyond certain ranges. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""Yes. I understand your first. The second troubles me, not because I have any intellectual difficulty with it, but rather because I don't think we ought to change our procedure without thorough discussion, and I doubt that we'll be ready to-- ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, along the lines of what Mr. Mayo suggested a while ago, I would think as a practical modus operandi in the interim that, when in doubt, we would tend to lean more towards an aggregates directive than a money market directive.For example, in today's meeting, I think a money market directive is appropriate, but if I thought this was going to be released within three to five days, I think I would want to expand the range a little bit more and the range of the aggregates a little bit more and make it an aggregates directive.And similarly, if we're forced to make these directives available immediately, I think that strengthens the case for looking further into the possibility of using a reserves target rather than a federal funds target, so that the interest rate movements in the federal funds market will not have this significance that they now do.With, perhaps, a proviso to limit the fluctuations beyond certain ranges.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""Yes.I understand your first.The second troubles me, not because I have any intellectual difficulty with it, but rather because I don't think we ought to change our procedure without thorough discussion, and I doubt that we'll be ready to--""}]",no,,,,
158,160,19780117_208_2,CHAIRMAN BURNS.,"""I've had a similar meeting with Mr. Reuss.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'My understanding is that before he acts on this case, he and I will sit down and talk this over at length. Therefore, such a meeting will still take place. '}, {'speaker': ""MR. O'CONNELL."", 'text': ""May I add, Mr. Chairman, as the Committee is also advised by materials in front of it, that action has been undertaken from the Board here to urge legislative relief of a nature suggested by the Court of Appeals in its opinion--namely, that there be an amendment to the Federal Reserve Act that would direct the withholding of the Committee's directive for a period until the next succeeding meeting. That's because under the Freedom of Information Act exemption number three requires that there be such a statutory mandate in order to enable the Committee to rely on that as a [reason for] withholding its directive. Such a letter was addressed to Mr. Proxmire, with supporting views and positions in a letter signed by the Chairman to Mr. Proxmire. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'After receiving absolute assurance that it was entirely proper to talk with the Solicitor General, I had a telephone conversation with him.My understanding is that before he acts on this case, he and I will sit down and talk this over at length.Therefore, such a meeting will still take place.'}, {'speaker': ""MR. O'CONNELL."", 'text': ""May I add, Mr. Chairman, as the Committee is also advised by materials in front of it, that action has been undertaken from the Board here to urge legislative relief of a nature suggested by the Court of Appeals in its opinion--namely, that there be an amendment to the Federal Reserve Act that would direct the withholding of the Committee's directive for a period until the next succeeding meeting.That's because under the Freedom of Information Act exemption number three requires that there be such a statutory mandate in order to enable the Committee to rely on that as a [reason for] withholding its directive.Such a letter was addressed to Mr. Proxmire, with supporting views and positions in a letter signed by the Chairman to Mr. Proxmire.""}]",no,,,,
159,161,19780117_389_8,VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""But you know in another way, I felt this was a very onerous job, Mr. Chairman, psychologically.""","Mr. Chairman, if I may have a point of personal privilege, as Vice Chairman of this Committee. I remember when I was first elected. When I arrived here you told me--indeed you announced to the Committee--that the job wasn't going to be very onerous. And I think that prediction, as many others, was borne out. I did get the minutes accepted a couple of times, I think. I may even have gotten some transactions that were already completed accepted once or twice. It wasn't more than twice, I'm sure. But you know in another way, I felt this was a very onerous job, Mr. Chairman, psychologically. Every time one thought one was prepared to make a brilliant or even sensible point, the Chairman would make it more eloquently and state it more effectively. He always anticipates you. He's always better prepared. And he brought an enormous experience in analyses of business cycles and a judgment that I think is clearly matched by no one else around the table or outside this table. In a way, that was psychologically onerous but it certainly made all our jobs much easier. And I have the feeling, if this indeed is your last meeting, Mr. Chairman, that we all are going to find it a bit more difficult in the future. We are going to have to carry a little more weight on our own--not just in analysis but in backbone. I can't think of any greater tribute for this Vice Chairman to give the Chairman of the Committee. I also might say, judging from some newspaper reports I have seen, that I have always appreciated a Chairman who smokes a pipe. But we will miss you very deeply, Mr. Chairman, and I am sure I can speak for every member of this Committee. [Applause]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""This may be the last--well, it will be the last meeting that I'll be presiding over. I want to say just one word. I don't think I've said it before. I am very pleased that at this last meeting of mine the Committee was unanimous. Thank you very much. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'Well, I assume that this would mean not moving below 6-3/4 percent--not even considering a move below 6-3/4 percent--unless we were down at the low end of the ranges.And if we were down at that low end, we would want to be in touch with the Committee.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""Well, that's perhaps a little stronger than I intended.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'Yes, I like that.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Nobody even heard my comment.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""That's a low end on average.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Mr. Broida, I think is following a suggestion that we use ""at about the current level"" rather than 6-3/4 percent.All right, since there are no further comments, will the Secretary call the roll, please?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BROIDA.', 'text': 'Chairman Burns Yes Vice Chairman Volcker Yes Governor ColdwellYes Governor GardnerYes President GuffeyYes Governor LillyYesPresident Mayo Yes President MorrisYes Governor ParteeYes President RoosYes Governor Wallich Yes Unanimous.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""This may be the last--well, it will be the last meeting that I'll be presiding over.I want to say just one word.I don't think I've said it before.I am very pleased that at this last meeting of mine the Committee was unanimous.Thank you very much.""}]",yes,no,,,
160,162,19780228_151_4,MR. HOLMES.,"""Hopefully, we won=t have to [breach] that.""","Mr. Chairman, regrettably, I do have one final recommendation. As you know, the Committee has authorized an open position of $1.75 billion in foreign currencies. At the present time, we have a leeway of exactly $106 million, which is not very large relative to potential [operations]. Hopefully, we won=t have to [breach] that. In between Committee meetings under the procedural instructions, our leeway would go up to around $2.15 billion; it would go up $500 million from where we started at the beginning of the Committee [meeting] until the next meeting of the Committee. There=s no necessary reason why the authorization has to be exactly what is permitted in the procedural instructions, but obviously the authorization is the important [rule]; that=s what rules us. So I would certainly recommend that the Committee at this meeting, since this has to be an action of the full Committee, increase the limit on the open position to $2 billion, which happens to be the limit on our German mark swaps.","[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'I think, Mr. Chairman, that you=re right. Though in particular in the German case, as Governor Wallich was commenting, I think the deceleration, if any, is imperceptible relative to the United States. But for most of the weaker countries, there has been a sharp deceleration in their rates of monetary expansion. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Gentlemen, perhaps the time has come to move along in our agenda. Oh, I=m advised that Mr. Holmes has still another recommendation. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'The rate of money growth [in their] M3 is higher than in our M1, but not higher than our M3, which is really a different number.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Their M1 is higher than our--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'The direction of the trend--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'I think that Mr. Roos is fundamentally correct if he=s thinking of periods of a year or longer.There has been a deceleration in monetary growth rates and of inflation rates around the world in contrast to the United States.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'In inflation rates.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'I believe in monetary growth rates as well.Well, it depends on the period.If you take longer periods--I=m not sure about this--I think as a broad generalization that would stand up.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'I think, Mr. Chairman, that you=re right.Though in particular in the German case, as Governor Wallich was commenting, I think the deceleration, if any, is imperceptible relative to the United States.But for most of the weaker countries, there has been a sharp deceleration in their rates of monetary expansion.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Gentlemen, perhaps the time has come to move along in our agenda.Oh, I=m advised that Mr. Holmes has still another recommendation.'}]",yes,,,,
161,163,19780321_65_4,CHAIRMAN MILLER.,"""Then our choices are going to narrow down to whether we'll take a lower growth rate in our economy, because it doesn't look like we are getting the relative speedup in other economies.""","Yes. We have all these policy dilemmas we are speaking about. Relative growth rates are such that we are going to continue to have these large current account deficits. Then our choices are going to narrow down to whether we'll take a lower growth rate in our economy, because it doesn't look like we are getting the relative speedup in other economies. [A lower growth rate] is something that I think many of the economic advisers in the Administration are now willing to accept because the alternative is to continue to see the dollar under pressure, and our resources to change it are not great. And that in itself feeds inflation into our economy and creates a whole series of other [developments] that lead us down an unhappy trail. So there is at least some thinking about whether we have to have a willingness here to shade our growth rate somewhat.","[{'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""Scott, if my arithmetic is correct, there's $50 million of Treasury money left. What happens if you hit a big day? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARDEE.', 'text': 'Well, Alan was going to cover this question. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Phil, do you have a question? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. JACKSON.', 'text': 'That was exactly my question. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARDEE.', 'text': ""The German banks and Swiss bankers--I have talked to some of these fellows--said they sold dollars out of anger that they did not get the bonds they wanted.They thought [such bonds] were going to be very attractive for them to hold and to market and they were looking for those to be in the package.When they didn't see [any reference to them], then they just sold dollars.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Henry.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""I spoke to of the Bundesbank and he said that, sure, they'd love to sell these bonds just as you say, but I don't think he thought it would be a very helpful operation for you.That's because people with dollars would go and buy the D-mark bonds and in the end there wouldn't be much effect other than that there would be a little more D-mark bonds and fewer dollar bonds in the world, a rebalancing of portfolios.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Phil.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""Scott, if my arithmetic is correct, there's $50 million of Treasury money left.What happens if you hit a big day?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARDEE.', 'text': 'Well, Alan was going to cover this question.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Phil, do you have a question?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JACKSON.', 'text': 'That was exactly my question.'}]",yes,,,,
162,164,19780321_270_15,VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""I don't know whether that bill is absolutely going to pass.""","I'll be brief with a couple of random comments, Mr. Chairman. I don't think there is a great deal of informational content, as a number of people have said, in the recent statistics so far as the future is concerned. My own presumption is that [the economy] should be fairly strong after we get through this period, recognizing the possibility that President Morris first referred to that it could be something else. [But] we have to be able to make some decisions and my presumption would still be on the side that growth is going to be stronger and that the risk of more inflation over these projections is greater than the prospect of less inflation. That is a major part of our problem and I would hope the Administration comes out with more credible programs. I would just say, after listening to this colloquy earlier, that I would rather have them take a little more time and do it right. [I'd hate to see them] get so concerned that they put out something early that is really not very credible. If they could really do something right here--something forceful--and if they are willing to take the actions within government, including on government pay, that seem to me desirable, it may be pretty useful. I was also struck, in terms of potential problems for the Federal Reserve, which have been [alluded] to in a couple of different ways by what Governor Wallich said about time for a slow landing and all this nomenclature that we have full employment someplace in the 5 to 6 percent or 5-1/2 to 6 percent area. That gets into the Humphrey-Hawkins bill. [Let's assume] we get the passage of the current congressional package on the Humphrey-Hawkins bill. If Henry is right, and there is a good deal in what he says, how does one go up there and testify how we are on the path and conducting policies toward whatever figure they have in there for Humphrey-Hawkins? [It] is not very far off. It seems to me that we are in a very awkward position. I don't know whether that bill is absolutely going to pass. It's very hard to oppose it. But the awkwardness of our position struck me, as I heard Governor Wallich speak.","[{'speaker': 'MR. WINN.', 'text': ""So it seems to me that we're likely to find much more stimulus there than is [implicit] in the projection and I'm disturbed by the stirrings in Congress about wanting to do something at this level. Once they take the bit in their teeth we may get a much greater stimulus than firm leadership on fiscal policy would dictate. That is my comment. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you. Paul. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WINN.', 'text': ""I think then people may realize that this may follow through a little longer than one would normally expect.My chief concern, however, is in the fiscal policy area, and this is where I would quarrel, I think, with the staff estimates.I would focus primarily on the state and local areas.While in the national income accounts it looks as if we have a big surplus, when you start to break that down you realize that it's largely due to the revenue sharing side; that is bringing in this big surplus.I see in the legislatures great efforts both to cut taxes at the state and local level and to increase expenditures.So it seems to me that we're likely to find much more stimulus there than is [implicit] in the projection and I'm disturbed by the stirrings in Congress about wanting to do something at this level.Once they take the bit in their teeth we may get a much greater stimulus than firm leadership on fiscal policy would dictate.That is my comment.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you.Paul.'}]",yes,,,,
163,165,19780321_363_2,MR. WILLES.,"""What happens now is that it all seems patently inconsistent to the public because we appear to be tightening when there's no reason and we appear to be easing when there's no reason.""","Just to respond to that point because I think that's one of the key points to the argument on the other side, which is that we ought to be making policy looking ahead as to what's going to happen six to nine months down the road. What happens now is that it all seems patently inconsistent to the public because we appear to be tightening when there's no reason and we appear to be easing when there's no reason. I think it would be a great advantage, in terms of our ability to do our work, to have those kinds of statements out in the public domain.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'I think there has been a tremendously favorable reaction to my strong statement on inflation already. It hasn\'t been negative. [The reaction] has been, ""My God, if that\'s true, let us do something."" '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think there is a subtle distinction between your expressing alarm, which is entirely appropriate and very helpful and encouraging, and the Federal Reserve at some time, in its august majesty, saying this is what [inflation] is going to be. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Mark had his hand up first and then I think-- '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'You see, if I\'m asked before the [Congressional] Committee on April 25 what my personal views on inflation are, they are going to be higher than the Administration\'s and that\'s going to be in the newspaper.Now whether we want to say we all have a view that\'s leaning a bit that way--is that better?Or should it be me?I can play it either way.But I don\'t think we can avoid answering the question; I don\'t think we should.I don\'t think I should avoid answering the question because the message that inflation is getting worse is a message to action and if we don\'t say it, I think we are not measuring up.I think there has been a tremendously favorable reaction to my strong statement on inflation already.It hasn\'t been negative.[The reaction] has been, ""My God, if that\'s true, let us do something.""'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think there is a subtle distinction between your expressing alarm, which is entirely appropriate and very helpful and encouraging, and the Federal Reserve at some time, in its august majesty, saying this is what [inflation] is going to be.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Mark had his hand up first and then I think--'}]",yes,yes,sentence,,
164,166,19780418_7_1,MR. PARDEE.,"""Well, I haven't seen-- We had one day or two days on which the dollar rose.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Phil. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. JACKSON.', 'text': 'Our policy, as I understand it, is to counter disorder. It would appear that when the mark-dollar relationship goes adverse to the dollar, we buy $100 million. When it goes favorably to the dollar, we buy 5 or 10 million [marks]. Why the difference? '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'On that occasion he again reminded me that I had an obligation to inform the FOMC of his concern about this.I am now so informing you so that you will all know he is concerned about why we want to handle M3 in that way and he wanted me to bring this to your attention with redoubled urgency.I have now done so.Now we can proceed with the agenda.The first item is approval of the minutes of actions taken at the meeting of March 21.Are there any comments or questions or changes?Hearing no dissent, we will record those as approved.On foreign currency operations, Scott Pardee will report to us on operations since the last meeting.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARDEE.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.]'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Any questions or comments?Phil.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JACKSON.', 'text': 'Our policy, as I understand it, is to counter disorder.It would appear that when the mark-dollar relationship goes adverse to the dollar, we buy $100 million.When it goes favorably to the dollar, we buy 5 or 10 million [marks].Why the difference?'}]",no,,,,
165,167,19780418_137_9,MR. WILLES.,"""It was interesting to me that I found nobody below 7 percent.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'I think our recent changes in the forecast really have been driven by largely exogenous factors. But I would not disagree with your underlying point, which I guess is that [money growth] does matter. If we had had higher interest rates in l977 and lower rates of growth in the aggregates, we would probably be looking at somewhat lower rates of inflation and we would also have lower rates of real activity. So I think throughout you would be talking about a situation that is different today than it would have been with a different set of aggregates and interest rates. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Mark. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""According to the Board's econometric model, the System model, it really is a matter of looking ahead two or three years.So I would think the results of having overshoots in l977 probably would have a very small impact today but it may be growing over time.One of the difficulties here in assessing the staff's forecast is that lots of things have changed in terms of fiscal policy and in terms of monetary policy.And the international situation has changed.So I find it very difficult to settle on M1 growth, for example, as being the causal factor.I think our recent changes in the forecast really have been driven by largely exogenous factors.But I would not disagree with your underlying point, which I guess is that [money growth] does matter.If we had had higher interest rates in l977 and lower rates of growth in the aggregates, we would probably be looking at somewhat lower rates of inflation and we would also have lower rates of real activity.So I think throughout you would be talking about a situation that is different today than it would have been with a different set of aggregates and interest rates.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Mark.'}]",no,,,,
166,168,19780418_425_1,MR. PARTEE.,"""I would be very much opposed to taking it out.""",I would be very much opposed to taking it out.,"[{'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'There are all sorts of [references to] M1 below that. This is just the historic past now. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""But I still don't-- ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Yes, M2 is the second sentence, isn't it? What is the sentiment? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'I am a little nervous that if we get it down to 4 and find ourselves--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'We have protected ourselves by that consultation at 7-1/4.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Yes.Well, how about 4 to 8-1/2?Is that all right?SEVERAL.Sure'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'All right.We have, therefore, 7 as the midpoint and consultation above 7-1/4.On the directive itself we have a few suggestions.I would like to review them and see if we are all in agreement.One suggestion is that we actually cut out lines 20-24.I did not read them carefully.Does that do anything of detriment to the directive?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Yes.Then there would be no M1 reference.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'There is no M2 reference either; it is a very balanced paragraph.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Well, I just don't think, I can't ever recall a directive that didn't refer to M1.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'There are all sorts of [references to] M1 below that.This is just the historic past now.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""But I still don't--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Yes, M2 is the second sentence, isn't it?What is the sentiment?""}]",yes,no,,,
167,169,19780516_107_3,MR. WALLICH.,"""We are likely to get another bad month in April because we've had a bad wholesale price index.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. GARDNER.', 'text': ""I've also been convinced since last fall that it's time to change automobiles. There are an incredible number of models which offer longer mileage and certain advantages like front wheel drive. It's quite impressive and, therefore, I'm not surprised at all by the automobile record that you expect and that the industry is anticipating. So I believe that there is merit to the staff forecast and that we will have a stronger period this year than we originally thought. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Henry. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Do we want to start with volunteers or should I just start here with Steve and go around?Why don't we ask you, Steve, to give us your views?Do you agree with the staff or do you have--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GARDNER.', 'text': ""Yes, I'm reasonably in agreement with the staff.I've been thinking that this very old and aging recovery would eventually get a thrust from business investment spending and you seem to feel that that's coming on now.That can only not be a factor for a certain period of time; it must come on [eventually].Technologies change and costs change.I've also been convinced since last fall that it's time to change automobiles.There are an incredible number of models which offer longer mileage and certain advantages like front wheel drive.It's quite impressive and, therefore, I'm not surprised at all by the automobile record that you expect and that the industry is anticipating.So I believe that there is merit to the staff forecast and that we will have a stronger period this year than we originally thought.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Henry.'}]",no,,,,
168,170,19780516_111_4,MR. COLDWELL.,"""I am especially worried about price pressures, which I view as very strong; and if fed by the availability of credit, they will intensify.""","Mr. Chairman, I find myself in agreement with Governor Wallich's comments. I think our effective labor supply is narrowing and I think our capacity availability is less than shown. I am especially worried about price pressures, which I view as very strong; and if fed by the availability of credit, they will intensify. Credit demands in this nation are extremely strong in certain areas and strengthening elsewhere. The competition for it is good; nevertheless, the demands are high and they're going to be met with some of the liquidity and large CD funding. I view the possibility of the staff's forecast as I guess 50 percent and maybe that's enough for you, Jim. But I suspect that your second-quarter GNP [forecast] is still going to be low. I think the chances of 10 percent are very good. Third-quarter GNP, I think is going to fall off faster than you have indicated--perhaps down to 4 percent and then in the fourth quarter, I view down to 2 percent [as likely]. I see that largely because I think consumer demand is going to weaken as debt increases and I think the interest rate increases are going to dampen housing and eventually in 1979 they may have an impact on capital spending. I don't view this as a very horrible scenario because I think we need to slow the growth of the economy down to a [pace that is sustainable] longer run because if we don't and we face these continued price pressures, we're going to have a bigger problem later on.","[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""We don't have to shift to that right now but by the end of the year it seems to me we ought to not worry at all if we're in the 3 to 4 or around the 3-1/2 percent range. That makes me somewhat more relaxed about concerns that the economy is not as strong as it seemed to be. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'But you want that to be a soft landing. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'Right, a soft landing. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Phil. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""[The unemployment rate for] married males is 3 percent, if it hasn't gone down below that.So my concern about inflation rests on these factors.Now, as far as income is concerned, if you take 6 percent unemployment or near there--I would be surprised if it did go below that--what we ought to do then is not to aim above 4 percent for real growth.In fact, we ought to aim over the rest of the year for slowing down to the long-term rate of 3-1/2 percent.That's about what we can expect to do at constant unemployment.We don't have to shift to that right now but by the end of the year it seems to me we ought to not worry at all if we're in the 3 to 4 or around the 3-1/2 percent range.That makes me somewhat more relaxed about concerns that the economy is not as strong as it seemed to be.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'But you want that to be a soft landing.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'Right, a soft landing.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Phil.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,entailment,sentence
169,171,19780516_392_6,MR. BLACK.,"""Otherwise, I think we act at the same trigger point.""","I do have one technical point--and I hate to prolong this--but it says here that the Manager shall be guided mainly by the relationship between the latest estimates of the aggregates M1 and M2 and ""the following ranges..."" But when we use a money market directive we have a different trigger point. When we have a monetary aggregates [directive, the Manager] acts when [money growth] deviates significantly from the midpoints of the indicated ranges. When we have a money market formulation, it's when growth appears to be approaching or moving beyond the limits. I think we could take [care] of that very easily by inserting in there ""the midpoints"" of the following ranges or ""the upper and lower limits"" of the following ranges. Otherwise, I think we act at the same trigger point.","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I think it's wrong when it's not actively influencing the direction of what we are doing. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BAUGHMAN.', 'text': ""And you are pretty sure you won't want it [in again] before a month has passed? ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'I hope not. Bob. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""While I tend to like Phil Coldwell's suggestion, I think I agree with you that we are getting into substance and it probably shouldn't be done.But I'm also willing to leave everything the way it is and let you consider it at the next meeting.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'May I make one--I hope modest--proposal of substance?It has nothing to do with what we are now talking about but I see that the directive has in it ""including conditions in foreign exchange markets.""We put that in rather explicitly in either December or January because we were particularly worried about the foreign exchange markets in influencing policy.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Why don't we take it out?""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I might want to put it back in next month.I don't think it's all that--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'I think this is a code word now for one thing to support another.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I think it's wrong when it's not actively influencing the direction of what we are doing.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BAUGHMAN.', 'text': ""And you are pretty sure you won't want it[in again] before a month has passed?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'I hope not.Bob.'}]",yes,no,,,
170,172,19780718_104_1,MR. BAUGHMAN.,"""Mr. Chairman, I think we still have significant expansive elements in the economy and I share what I think is the staff's view that the distortions are not yet great enough, and that it will take a fair time for them to become great enough, to terminate the expansive influences.""","Mr. Chairman, I think we still have significant expansive elements in the economy and I share what I think is the staff's view that the distortions are not yet great enough, and that it will take a fair time for them to become great enough, to terminate the expansive influences. And I think there is still some possibility of achieving something that might appropriately be labeled a ""soft landing"" ex the inflation aspect. So I would still [expect] something on the order of 4 percent or just slightly under on GNP, about 7-1/2 percent on prices, and something a bit under 6 percent on unemployment.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'So I would expect something like 6 to 6-1/2 on prices in that kind of situation and obviously the unemployment rate above 6 percent by the second quarter of the year. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Why are you so sure about a recession? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Well, I think we are building up financial pressures in the system. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Because of the financial side. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Frank. Ernie. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'The unemployment side I think is the most favorable of the whole package.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you.Frank.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""Well, Mr. Chairman I think we are headed for a recession in l979.I don't know whether it is going to start in the first half or the second half, so I have a range for real GNP of 1-1/2 to 3 percent.The 1-1/2, of course, will be if the recession starts in the first quarter.Therefore, I am more optimistic on prices in connection with this scenario since I have noticed in recent years a very coincident behavior between the rate of real growth in the economy and the rate of change in prices, without much of a lag.So I would expect something like 6 to 6-1/2 on prices in that kind of situation and obviously the unemployment rate above 6 percent by the second quarter of the year.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Why are you so sure about a recession?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Well, I think we are building up financial pressures in the system.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Because of the financial side.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Frank. Ernie.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,,
171,173,19780919_48_1,MR. PARTEE.,"""I think it depends partly, Mr. Chairman, on what you think the intervention is for.""","I think it depends partly, Mr. Chairman, on what you think the intervention is for.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""I hope, because the next meeting is the meeting for setting ranges, that we will use the interim time [to look carefully at] the memo so that we'll be prepared to respond to this. I think the proposals are reasonable. It doesn't make sense [currently]. The United States should be grown up. If it's going to intervene, it should intervene for its account like other countries and not expect somebody else to share [the risk]. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'May I say one more thing, Mr. Chairman, at the risk of running [too long on] this.The EC government wants to homogenize all our swaps.That means bringing up things like the 50-50 and other minor differences, although we homogenized them pretty much last year.Lester said he would try to talk them out of it and seemed confident that changes proposed by the EC government may therefore not come up.Thank you.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Thank you, Henry.You all will receive a copy of the memorandum and at the next meeting we'll have an opportunity to consider this.I hope, because the next meeting is the meeting for setting ranges, that we will use the interim time [to look carefully at] the memo so that we'll be prepared to respond to this.I think the proposals are reasonable.It doesn't make sense [currently].The United States should be grown up.If it's going to intervene, it should intervene for its account like other countries and not expect somebody else to share [the risk].""}]",yes,no,,,
172,174,19780919_59_10,MR. KICHLINE.,"""I think a major difference in these forecasts relates to consumer spending patterns.""","On the second one, I feel comfortable in talking about it but Steve has developed some material on that and perhaps he might wish to comment on your second question. With regard to the first question--that is, the Greenbook forecast relative to various outside forecasts--of the ones I've seen I think it's quite correct to say that the Greenbook is more optimistic. One of the questions to be asked is to what extent do the assumptions differ in monetary or fiscal policy or other things and that's not always entirely clear, but I suspect that doesn't account for the major difference. As far as I remember for 1979, for example, both Wharton and DRI are fairly close in terms of the Board's staff judgmental projection for the year in total, but the pattern is dramatically different. Both of those forecasts, I believe, show a sharp decline or very sluggish performance in the first half of the year and then [growth] picking up later on. The Board staff forecast doesn't show that slowdown but shows real growth fading throughout the year. So, on average, you come out about the same place, but it's really a very different forecast. We, for one thing, are counting upon an impact of the tax cut; I think perhaps we have a little bit bigger fiscal impact there and that certainly accounts for our first half relative strength compared to others. Secondly, we have made judgmental adjustments for what we believe to be a change in consumer spending attitudes. I think a major difference in these forecasts relates to consumer spending patterns. The evidence over the last couple of years certainly isn't conclusive, and things may change, but it does appear to us that consumers have preferred to acquire goods rather than financial assets in this period of inflation. And that characteristic of trying to acquire goods would carry through into the housing market where I think, adjusted for the interest rates we have assumed in the forecast, we have a fairly optimistic housing forecast. So I think those are the major differences. But it's quite clear to us when looking at the other forecasts that we do rank on the optimistic side. Steve, did you want to comment?","[{'speaker': 'MR. EASTBURN.', 'text': ""Jim, I have a question--or really two questions. One has to do with the Greenbook forecast compared with what I understand to be most of the other forecasts around. As near as I can determine, the Greenbook is more optimistic than any other projection, and I wonder if you would speak to that a little bit. Second, it's my understanding that implicit in your relationships between money growth and velocity and GNP is an assumed fairly substantial shift in the demand for money. And I wonder what basis there is for that assumption. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""I think that it might be desirable today to omit that particular round robin since we've done it fairly frequently on the second quarter.There isn't that much change and perhaps we'll do that quarterly instead of every time.Instead, I would suggest after a chance to comment or question the staff that we just go briefly around and see if anyone has any particular variations or additional points they would like to make from their region or from their own analysis of the overall situation.So are there any questions or comments?Dave.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. EASTBURN.', 'text': ""Jim, I have a question--or really two questions.One has to do with the Greenbook forecast compared with what I understand to be most of the other forecasts around.As near as I can determine, the Greenbook is more optimistic than any other projection, and I wonder if you would speak to that a little bit.Second, it's my understanding that implicit in your relationships between money growth and velocity and GNP is an assumed fairly substantial shift in the demand for money.And I wonder what basis there is for that assumption.""}]",yes,no,,,
173,175,19781017_228_12,MR. WILLES.,"""The only way we can make the adjustment is to figure out what we think the most likely adjustment is.""","I found Steve's presentation very helpful. I'd like to follow his presentation to make a couple of statements as much by way of making sure I understand what he said as well as arguing what I think is right. If you look first at M1, for example, without adjusting for automatic transfers, there is a question as to whether or not the 6-1/2 is the right ceiling or not. If we didn't face the November 1 problem, then that's what we'd be debating, among other things. And I think we ought to treat that question separately from the question of adjustment for automatic transfers first, because some of us think 6-1/2 is still a right number and we ought to debate whether it should be 6-1/2 or 8. But second, Steve made a very interesting comment when he said that he thought a 4-1/2 percent shift was highly likely. Let's suppose that we had a 4-1/2 percent shift and we maintain an M1 range of 2 to 6 percent. Then that means that you could have, given our current environment, rather than a 6 percent growth in M1 a 1-1/2 percent growth in M1 before you've violated your ranges. So what we would in effect be doing, if you attach much probability to that kind of a shift, is that not only do we not take 6-1/2 as right, but we're willing to live with 10-1/2. And I for one would find that prospect absolutely unbearable. So in making whatever adjustment we make, it seems to me that as a technical matter it might help in terms of policy if we discuss pre-ATS [figures] to see where we come out on that and then discuss the adjustment after that. The only way we can make the adjustment is to figure out what we think the most likely adjustment is. And if you gave equal weight to 1-1/2 [and] to 4-1/2, then the most likely is 3 or whatever. [So I'd] make the adjustment on that basis and then proceed. Otherwise, it seems to me that we run a very serious risk of biasing the results and ending up with a substantial change in policy based simply on a relatively narrow technical matter.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I think it's very hard to estimate. And remember, M1+ will include all of the ATS accounts whether they're truly transactions accounts or idle balances. It will include any conversion from thrifts to the banks that are put in there in order to raise the minimum size of the account to the point where there are no service charges. But that is a minor problem. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Mark Willes. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""I think for policy purposes it's highly desirable not to raise the M2 and M3 ranges and to leave the current ranges, which give enough scope--even if the staff projections are right--to be within them.And they provide added scope, in case the President's program is effective, to have a lower rate of growth.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""It seems to me not unreasonable, Paul, to do that, although I do think there is the possibility that we'd run over the top of M2 because of the diversion of funds from thrifts to the banks.My own preference would have been for 5 to 8 on [M1+] for the same reason.I think it's very hard to estimate.And remember, M1+ will include all of the ATS accounts whether they're truly transactions accounts or idle balances.It will include any conversion from thrifts to the banks that are put in there in order to raise the minimum size of the account to the point where there are no service charges.But that is a minor problem.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Mark Willes.'}]",yes,,,,
174,176,19781219_257_2,VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""This is the basic limit and I think the Committee probably ought to have one.""","I happen to have a preference along with Governor Coldwell on this. This is the basic limit and I think the Committee probably ought to have one. I would swallow the public relations disadvantage and make sure it's big enough, but I could go either way in the end.","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Are you suggesting that you can take the aggregate limit and put it under the procedural instructions? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'The aggregate limit would disappear under this proposal. You would not be without some control. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I think it's not [a good idea] to eliminate the [limit on the] aggregate open position. (A) I don't think it's desirable from a public relations standpoint; and (B) I don't think it's desirable from the Committee's standpoint. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""And we would not, as I understand it--subject to being better informed--have to publish any of what we do in this area because it comes under the procedural instructions, which we don't publish, [whereas] any [change] in the authorization does have to be made public.Furthermore, even if it were to be published, the intermeeting limit wouldn't tip off the market; it wouldn't tell the market [anything about] the accumulated magnitude of past or future operations.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'But we would still have to suspend the aggregate limit.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""No, you can't do that.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'No, they are different things.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""You'd have to give [the Desk] room on the aggregates.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'We either have to give a specific number or a suspension.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Are you suggesting that you can take the aggregate limit and put it under the procedural instructions?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'The aggregate limit would disappear under this proposal.You would not be without some control.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I think it's not [a good idea] to eliminate the [limit on the] aggregate open position.(A) I don't think it's desirable from a public relations standpoint; and (B) I don't think it's desirable from the Committee's standpoint.""}]",yes,no,,,
175,177,19781219_409_1,CHAIRMAN MILLER.,"""It comes up every meeting because I don't know that you can bind future FOMCs to having only certain spreads.""",It comes up every meeting because I don't know that you can bind future FOMCs to having only certain spreads. I think any FOMC can put on any spread they want. New people come on and change their minds.,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Well, there's recommendation 4, which has a great deal to do with the question of whether we can say that what the Committee has done has some relationship with what the President wants done. And I think [following] your suggestion would make it less likely that we'd consider it consistent. ""}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'And that comes up in recommendation 4? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'I think it does. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'In any case, it comes up in February. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""That's a very good point; the cone gets wider as you go up.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Well, we slip the base every quarter now.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""That's the problem.Where we get the problem now is slipping the base.If we stuck by our original one-year projection and had a 2-1/2 point spread-- Now, we are off the subject, but we may want to create a band rather than a cone.There is a lot to be said for that.But I think that's a separate question.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'I do think this is a separate issue.[MR. COLDWELL(?).]What other recommendations do you have?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Well, there's recommendation 4, which has a great deal to do with the question of whether we can say that what the Committee has done has some relationship with what the President wants done.And I think [following] your suggestion would make it less likely that we'd consider it consistent.""}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'And that comes up in recommendation 4?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'I think it does.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'In any case, it comes up in February.'}]",yes,no,,,
176,178,19790522_398_2,MR. BALLES.,"""I have real reservations about going up to $2 billion, based on a very skeptical attitude regarding decisions on what constitutes excessive movements one way or another vis-a-vis what the market is saying.""","I share Chuck's view. I have real reservations about going up to $2 billion, based on a very skeptical attitude regarding decisions on what constitutes excessive movements one way or another vis-a-vis what the market is saying. I'd keep it where it is.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'In other words, you would not want to expand it to $2 billion. Then the question is: Do you like the proposal in the memo? Paul. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Yes, it is reasonable. MR. AL""N. President Balles. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Well, I had that attitude, too.I was very much opposed to it until [the dollar's weakness] went so far that I knew it was oversold.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Let's run down [the list] and ask the members if they are for the policy and if so, if they have a preference for the $1 billion or the $500 million limit per currency.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KIMBREL.', 'text': '[I would agree] with the memo.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'The maximum is $2 billion in any case, but the question is whether you want a maximum of $1 billion per currency or $ 5 0 0 million.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'I meant I wanted the $ 5 0 0 million in the aggregate.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""In the aggregate?Oh, I misunderstood you.well, then we'll have to ask again.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""That's what we have now.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Yes, we already have that.In other words, you would not want to expand it to $2 billion.Then the question is: Do you like the proposal in the memo?Paul.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Yes, it is reasonable.MR. AL""N. President Balles.'}]",yes,no,,,
177,179,19790814_299_5,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Well, let's go all the way and say acceptable.""","Well, I don't attribute any great weight to that other than the inherent uncertainty in these things. I have been watching those numbers enough that my discount factor is extremely high. The trouble is my discount factor on all these numbers is extremely high in any short-run period. Let me just ask the preferences first. Well, let's go all the way and say acceptable.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Following Phil, here, the money market directive at the moment. With that high a range, I'm a little worried about an aggregates directive. Again, there's just some uncertainty about what will happen in the very short run. I just looked over Tom's shoulder and New York already has a lower estimate for these aggregates; it might be triggered on the low side before we know it. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'They did before, too. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'It seems to me, then, that if we want the 10-3/4 to 11-1/4 percent [funds range], that just gives us a 1/4 point to work in, which bothers me a little.But the telephone is always there and we can call a meeting and raise it if we have to.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, shall we get a show of hands from voting members on 10-3/4 to 11-1/4 percent and the midpoint where it is, with 4 to 8 percent and 7 to 11 percent [on M1 and M2]?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': 'Preference or acceptable?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, let me have preferences first.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ALTMANN.', 'text': ""What's your midpoint?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': '11 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'Which directive, Mr. Chairman?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Following Phil, here, the money market directive at the moment.With that high a range, I'm a little worried about an aggregates directive.Again, there's just some uncertainty about what will happen in the very short run.I just looked over Tom's shoulder and New York already has a lower estimate for these aggregates; it might be triggered on the low side before we know it.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'They did before, too.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,ambiguous,
178,180,19790918_21_2,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""I don't know what that implies.""","Well, [you say] ""does need to be."" I don't know what that implies.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""It's true that the dollar has been appreciating against most other currencies. But if the market gets in its head that the dollar is really going down, would we be able to stop it without spending a lot more money than we're already spending? That is the question. And let me say that it would make me very nervous to try to control a depreciation at this point, given the underlying malaise. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'But what do we do if the rate really does need to be 170 instead of 180? '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That does not say that they would mind particularly if the mark appreciated, and that notion is fairly well imbedded in market thinking.On the other hand, I don't think the other Europeans want the mark to appreciate because of the opposite side of that coin from their standpoint and their own inflationary problems.So they are at kind of an impasse within Europe.I think our concern, given the psychological situation and the real situation that Scott outlined, is whether we can have a moderate decline in the dollar against the mark.It's true that the dollar has been appreciating against most other currencies.But if the market gets in its head that the dollar is really going down, would we be able to stop it without spending a lot more money than we're already spending?That is the question.And let me say that it would make me very nervous to try to control a depreciation at this point, given the underlying malaise.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'But what do we do if the rate really does need to be 170 instead of 180?'}]",no,,,,
179,181,19790918_261_1,MR. COLDWELL.,"""If I had a preference straight out, the range would be 3 to 7 percent, but I'm persuaded that with the present projection 8 percent growth is a possibility.""","If I had a preference straight out, the range would be 3 to 7 percent, but I'm persuaded that with the present projection 8 percent growth is a possibility. All I'm saying is that I'd much prefer to make sure that we do use some of the [funds] range if we're approaching that [upper limit]. I just think 8 is too high. If it got up in the 7 percent range, I'd like to see us nibbling toward usage [of the upper part of the funds range].","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't think there is any question about that. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""I have no objections to having a telephone call. I'm a little bothered about saying that [Ml growth] has to be at 8 percent [before we confer] because I think 8 is too high. If it means that we've got to go up to 11-3/4 percent, then I'd rather take the decision now that we're going to go to 11-3/4 percent if [Ml growth] is up in that area. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Phil, what would your preference be on ranges? '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'If the aggregates were strong enough, I think we could use this whole range here.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'If the aggregates were strong enough?You would say that [Ml growth] would have to get up to the full 8 percent in order to move even to the 11-3/4 percent?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, we're not so far from that on the current projection.It's just a matter of judgment.At this particular phase in the business cycle, should we be moving more than that without at least having a telephone call?I don't think there is any question about that.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""I have no objections to having a telephone call.I'm a little bothered about saying that [Ml growth] has to be at 8 percent [before we confer] because I think 8 is too high.If it means that we've got to go up to 11-3/4 percent, then I'd rather take the decision now that we're going to go to 11-3/4 percent if [Ml growth] is up in that area.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Phil, what would your preference be on ranges?'}]",yes,yes,,entailment,-5 sentences
180,182,19791006_29_13,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""We wouldn't be here today if we didn't have a problem with the state of the markets, whether international or domestic.""","Well, let me say where I think we are even though Emmett is still absent. I appreciate your all standing by so patiently over the past few days, but we've had a few complications putting this together, with some people out of town and so forth. Just in terms of the schedule for today, I think we have to assume that the Board of Governors is going to have to meet after we get finished. And depending upon what we decide, the presidents may want to meet. too, to discuss any reserve requirement changes and what kinds of problems that will create in the short run. [Unintelligible] and we may need to talk about straightening out mechanical problems that may arise [when we implement] any decisions we make. So we can play that by ear as we go along. I don't know how long we're going to have to be here today. We will be here until we arrive at a consensus and proceed [from there]. I'm not sure when we would announce any decision that we make--whether we'd do it late today or Monday morning. Those seem to be the two practical alternatives with the Pope here rather blanketing the area [news] tomorrow and creating a little difficulty [for us1 in terms of an orderly announcement. Let me say that I think there are several dimensions to the current situation. We wouldn't be here today if we didn't have a problem with the state of the markets, whether international or domestic. They were pretty feverish last week--or beginning in the previous week, really. Beginning about 2 weeks ago and carrying over into the early part of what is still this week, the foreign exchange market was in a situation that was clearly not amenable for very long to such techniques as intervention. The markets have turned around some in the past few days, as you know. I think that is almost entirely explicable by the fact that at about the time I returned from Belgrade Treasury officials and others were making some statements that left hanging the possibility of some kind of a package, so the foreign exchange dealers have retreated to the sidelines.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': 'Well, Sears has gone through particular problems. '}, {'speaker': 'M R . PARTEE.', 'text': 'It seems to me that they were in bad shape about a year ago. '}, {'speaker': 'M R . MAYO.', 'text': ""It shouldn't be used as an example for the whole country. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Wards had a very small change over a year ago. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': 'Yes, but Penneys and Kmart are still doing fine. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Bones did you want to comment?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KIMEREL.', 'text': ""I'd simply echo [Tom Timlenl.In the last week we had a series of business leaders in from Jacksonville, Atlanta, and New Orleans.They [exhibited] an enthusiastic lack of confidence in so many areas.But for their own individual businesses the only expression of any concern was from a convenience store operator with about 1500 outlets who suggested that one[sign] of a possible recession was the fact that they were having many more thefts--more stealing [of merchandise] as well as robberies.That was the only [indication] of recession they could see.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': 'Sales at Sears Roebuck were ahead of last year for the first time in twelve months.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Was a year ago bad, do you recall?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': 'Well, Sears has gone through particular problems.'}, {'speaker': 'M R . PARTEE.', 'text': 'It seems to me that they were in bad shape about a year ago.'}, {'speaker': 'M R . MAYO.', 'text': ""It shouldn't be used as an example for the whole country.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Wards had a very small change over a year ago.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': 'Yes, but Penneys and Kmart are still doing fine.'}]",yes,no,,,
181,183,19800109_597_1,MR. COLDWELL.,"""You mean we should react more rapidly if M1 growth goes up with the interest rates falling than if M1 growth went down and interest rates were rising.""",You mean we should react more rapidly if M1 growth goes up with the interest rates falling than if M1 growth went down and interest rates were rising.,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""But let me say that we would be more concerned about a situation where [growth] was tending toward the lower side, 4 percent or below--we can't control these things that closely--and interest rates were rising; we would tend to get aggressive more quickly, providing more reserves. And if it went in the other direction where it was drifting high, if interest rates were falling out of bed and giving us trouble on the international side we would be prompter about getting it back in the range, in terms of attitudes and judgments about the kind of path shifts that we have to make in the reserve numbers in the period. But we would start out with 4-1/2 percent. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""I'm not quite sure you said what you wanted to say. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, I may have said it wrong, but I think you-- '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'In terms of the range [for Ml], as I said, everybody was [for growth] between 4 and 5 percent, and I would propose that we just state it in the directive as ""between 4 and 5 percent,"" which I think is consistent with the atmospherics of the [situation].That is open to an interpretation that I personally would not resist, but we would draw a path on the basis of 4-1/2 percent consistent with that opening stance.But let me say that we would be more concerned about a situation where [growth] was tending toward the lower side, 4 percent or below--we can\'t control these things that closely--and interest rates were rising; we would tend to get aggressive more quickly, providing more reserves.And if it went in the other direction where it was drifting high, if interest rates were falling out of bed and giving us trouble on the international side we would be prompter about getting it back in the range, in terms of attitudes and judgments about the kind of path shifts that we have to make in the reserve numbers in the period.But we would start out with 4-1/2 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""I'm not quite sure you said what you wanted to say.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, I may have said it wrong, but I think you--'}]",no,,,,
182,184,19800205_86_8,MR. WILLES.,"""And yet if we structure that penalty in the right way, in fact, we're not going to give away much in terms of sloppiness in the reserve figures.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I found Henry's comments and Chuck's comments particularly useful. So I would like to [be recorded as agreeing with] whatever you wrote down for them. I would add one thought, which goes back to the comment that Bob Mayo made. I am not much for gimmicks, either. But if there's a bank relations problem, as many think there is, it just might be possible that the kind of proposal Bill Poole made can be structured in such a way that we don't give much away but present it to the banks as though we are giving them something when we are taking away lagged reserves. His kind of penalty scheme, for example, in terms of the carryover would make it possible to say that we are going to take away lagged reserves but we are going to give banks some flexibility they don't have now. And yet if we structure that penalty in the right way, in fact, we're not going to give away much in terms of sloppiness in the reserve figures. Looked at in that way--unless, as Chuck says, we get the whole thing solved with the bill--it might be useful to consider a gimmick like that simply as a bank relations vehicle. It may be a means to get the advantages and not have the negative bank relations impact that some of us, at least, are concerned about.","[{'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""First, I would agree with the Account Manager that this is likely to have [only] minor advantages. But secondly, I would caution the Committee that this is another interruption in the overall picture of [the policy] the Committee is trying to follow. If we add that on top of our redefined aggregates as well as possible daylight overdrafts and additions from the membership bill, we're likely to complicate the figures [further] and they are going to be difficult for people to follow, even our very good staff. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I can't contemplate that possibility. President Willes. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""I know this is somewhat general, but that's how I would respond to the kinds of comments that Irv makes.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'It depends in considerable part upon what we do with the discount window issue.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Yes.I am sure, even if we leave the window open and don't close it, total reserves leaves you the possibility of chasing it.You may not ever catch it, but it leaves you the possibility of chasing it.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Coldwell.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""I have only two comments, Mr. Chairman.First, I would agree with the Account Manager that this is likely to have [only] minor advantages.But secondly, I would caution the Committee that this is another interruption in the overall picture of [the policy] the Committee is trying to follow.If we add that on top of our redefined aggregates as well as possible daylight overdrafts and additions from the membership bill, we're likely to complicate the figures [further] and they are going to be difficult for people to follow, even our very good staff.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I can't contemplate that possibility.President Willes.""}]",yes,,,,
183,185,19800422_154_9,MS. TEETERS.,"""And we're obviously not going to have very many automobiles built.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': ""I find it hard to imagine that whatever inflationary psychology might develop as a result of a temporary expansion in the rate of growth in money would last for a long time in the face of a nominal GNP growth that is roughly twice the rate of growth of the money supply. In other words, if we allow money to grow at 4-1/2 percent against a nominal GNP growth of twice that amount, I find it difficult to believe that inflationary psychology can continue for very long against those facts. Therefore, I am inclined to stick with our current targets. And I would see the period that we're in--where we demonstrate that we are sticking with our course and are maintaining our goal of restricting money supply growth--as an opportunity to educate the public on our operating procedure and what it means as well as on our determination to stick to our goals for growth in the money supply. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Teeters. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': ""It seems to me that the basic risks are that if we revise our targets downward, we risk making the recession worse and that if we stick to our current targets, we risk some misunderstanding of our policy and the inflationary psychology in the market might worsen.I would be clearly inclined to take that latter risk.I find it hard to imagine that whatever inflationary psychology might develop as a result of a temporary expansion in the rate of growth in money would last for a long time in the face of a nominal GNP growth that is roughly twice the rate of growth of the money supply.In other words, if we allow money to grow at 4-1/2 percent against a nominal GNP growth of twice that amount, I find it difficult to believe that inflationary psychology can continue for very long against those facts.Therefore, I am inclined to stick with our current targets.And I would see the period that we're in--where we demonstrate that we are sticking with our course and are maintaining our goal of restricting money supply growth--as an opportunity to educate the public on our operating procedure and what it means as well as on our determination to stick to our goals for growth in the money supply.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Teeters.'}]",no,,,,
184,186,19800520_339_1,MR. WALLICH.,"""Why don't you let individual members of the Committee call you when they think that Chuck's zone is being approached?""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think that is the difference. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'And there was no vote on the 16 percent, as a matter of fact. It was just an understanding that at 15 or 16 percent, whatever it was-- '}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': '16. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ALTMANN.', 'text': 'The point at which the consultation-- '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'Would you refer to this as the twilight zone?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""I think if the Committee indicates as it passes through that zone that it doesn't see a need to change the fundamental range, Mr. Altmann might not view it as a vote that needs to be reported.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ALTMANN.', 'text': 'That has been the practice.I think if it gets to be regular, it probably should be a vote.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I guess that is the difference.When we did it the other time, we did not vote.We had a consultation without a vote, right?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ALTMANN.', 'text': ""It was April 29th, wasn't it?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Yes, [when the funds rate was] at 16 percent the Committee met and, though it met, it decided [to retain the range in] the directive.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That's right, we didn't have a vote.I think that is the difference.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'And there was no vote on the 16 percent, as a matter of fact.It was just an understanding that at 15 or 16 percent, whatever it was--'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': '16.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ALTMANN.', 'text': 'The point at which the consultation--'}]",no,,,,
185,187,19800709_317_2,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""And I'm not arguing for changing the ranges; but I just don't want to associate any change, particularly in this case when we could argue that we have a technical reason for making the change, with playing games.""","I think there is something to what you say, looking at history. And I'm not arguing for changing the ranges; but I just don't want to associate any change, particularly in this case when we could argue that we have a technical reason for making the change, with playing games. We said a certain range was valid at one point; I don't think we can say that it's valid forever just because we happened to say it [once]. Don't change the ranges lightly without a good reason is what I think you are saying. Don't revert to changing them automatically because we change them every quarter to take account of what has happened. I just don't want to overstate the case for not changing. Mr. Baughman.","[{'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': ""We will enforce our credibility by being candid. I don't think we ought to play games. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, I don\'t think we ought to associate a change in the ranges--if we think we have good grounds for a change --with playing games or horsing around. All ""B"" is arguing is that a technical adjustment is required. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': ""Don't you think, given the tendency of the Open Market Committee in past years toward base drift, that people--or at least interested market participants and others--knew that we were playing games in those days to make ourselves look good? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': ""And I think we should make at least a strong statement--we don't want to be specific--that going into 1981 we are going to reduce gradually the rate of growth of the narrow aggregates.Incidentally, our people did a study of M2 and they feel that M2 is not an accurate predictor of GNP, so I'd resist moving to place greater emphasis on our M2 targets.But I think we ought to tell Congress what we are going to do--that we are going to correct for this [current] undershoot and that next year we are going to continue our policy of gradually reducing the rate of money growth.We will enforce our credibility by being candid.I don't think we ought to play games.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, I don\'t think we ought to associate a change in the ranges--if we think we have good grounds for a change --with playing games or horsing around.All ""B"" is arguing is that a technical adjustment is required.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': ""Don't you think, given the tendency of the Open Market Committee in past years toward base drift, that people--or at least interested market participants and others--knew that we were playing games in those days to make ourselves look good?""}]",yes,no,,,
186,188,19800709_423_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""It calls for a decision, but I don't know that it says how it has to go in [the directive].""","It calls for a decision, but I don't know that it says how it has to go in [the directive]. We have to put down some language in the report anyway, but I don't quite see why it has to be in the directive. Steve has some [suggested] language. Let me just try it out in terms of the tenor of it. ""Looking ahead to 1981, the Committee decided to work toward a further slowing in monetary growth rates that is consistent with an orderly reduction in the rate of inflation, while taking into account the impact on individual aggregates of the introduction of NOW accounts on a nationwide basis, a change in public preference for deposits and closely-related assets and emerging economic conditions."" I suppose it's that last phrase that--","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""It's in the longer-term paragraph, isn't it? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ALTMANN.', 'text': ""That's right. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Why do we need it in there now? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ALTMANN.', 'text': 'That was the decision made at the time that the Committee considered it. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I thought that's what the Humphrey-Hawkins Act called for. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""What do we have to say in the directive, Mr. Secretary, about 1981?Nothing, do we?This isn't a directive question, is it?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ALTMANN.', 'text': 'I can answer that perhaps by telling you what we said at this time last year.After citing the ranges for 1979, the directive said: ""The Committee anticipates that for the period from the fourth quarter of 1979 to the fourth quarter of 1980 growth may be within the same ranges, depending upon emerging economic conditions and appropriate adjustments that may be required by legislation or judicial developments affecting interest bearing transaction accounts.""That language was in the directive adopted [in July 1979] and was repeated each month.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'In what [part of the] directive does that appear--in the operating [paragraphs]?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""It's in the longer-term paragraph, isn't it?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ALTMANN.', 'text': ""That's right.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Why do we need it in there now?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ALTMANN.', 'text': 'That was the decision made at the time that the Committee considered it.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I thought that's what the Humphrey-Hawkins Act called for.""}]",yes,,,,
187,189,19800916_135_1,MR. KICHLINE.,"""Well, I am referring to the nonfarm business sector.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Just a small amount--3 percent relative to [a decline of] 8-3/4 percent in the second quarter. So they are still down. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Three percent down. But you have a GNP estimate down 3 percent, roughly. I just-- '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""Well, people refer to different things.A standard approach is to use a cyclically adjusted productivity number, and those estimates range all over the lot.Our own is something like 3/4 of a percentage point.And it's assumed that businesses tend to respond to changes in productivity over a longer period of time and are not influenced by the quarterly changes.So, taking those kinds of productivity numbers on average, they would dispense with [the quarterly fluctuations] and say that the underlying trend is something like [a rise of] 1/2 to 1 percentage point.Using that kind of number gives us unit labor costs running about 9 percent.Compensation is 10 percent, and with 1 percent or so productivity you get unit labor costs of 9 percent.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Aren't hours worked going to be down in this coming quarter?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Just a small amount--3 percent relative to [a decline of] 8-3/4 percent in the second quarter.So they are still down.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Three percent down.But you have a GNP estimate down 3 percent, roughly.I just--'}]",no,,,,
188,190,19801021_27_1,MR. SCHULTZ.,"""But we're coming up pretty close to the limit right now.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""We didn't pay all [our mark indebtedness] off and we could have done so at that time. Now the question really is: If similar conditions develop, and there's no assurance that they will, should we follow the same strategy or should we follow a different strategy? That is, should we lean harder against the wind, which in this case would mean not just to gather in [marks] to pay off debt but to accumulate some reserves which might be split with the Treasury or be all for the Treasury or all for us. There's a problem of risk in financing to be considered. But I believe we should think ahead a little and not just leave it to the developments of the day. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""Now, last time we operated so as to allow the dollar to run up pretty far; it came down again.We had a very pronounced upward and downward trip which did no particular good.We didn't accumulate or gather in for repayment a very large amount, although we did do some but over time.We didn't pay all [our mark indebtedness] off and we could have done so at that time.Now the question really is: If similar conditions develop, and there's no assurance that they will, should we follow the same strategy or should we follow a different strategy?That is, should we lean harder against the wind, which in this case would mean not just to gather in [marks] to pay off debt but to accumulate some reserves which might be split with the Treasury or be all for the Treasury or all for us.There's a problem of risk in financing to be considered.But I believe we should think ahead a little and not just leave it to the developments of the day.""}]",no,,,,
189,191,19801021_331_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""It's just the opposite of what we did last time.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""And I suppose we need to make the borrowing number a little more concrete to give us some feeling of how fast we should react if the number comes in high--I don't know that it's so much a question of how fast, but how strongly--and the reverse if it comes in low, as to how passive we should be in relieving the borrowing pressure on the market as some have suggested. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, following those comments, I'm attracted to Tony Solomon's proposal that we adopt the A alternative with a borrowing level of about $1.3 billion. I would also suggest that we move the federal funds range to 9 to 15 percent, with some caution as we go above 14 percent if that is indicated. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'If we do that, aren\'t we saying ""A,"" but doing ""B"" in effect? It seems very close to that because-- '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I suppose after listening to all of this, I\'d be perfectly happy to put that number between ""A"" and ""B."" So, let me hear your reactions to all of that.And I suppose we need to make the borrowing number a little more concrete to give us some feeling of how fast we should react if the number comes in high--I don\'t know that it\'s so much a question of how fast, but how strongly--and the reverse if it comes in low, as to how passive we should be in relieving the borrowing pressure on the market as some have suggested.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, following those comments, I'm attracted to Tony Solomon's proposal that we adopt the A alternative with a borrowing level of about $1.3 billion.I would also suggest that we move the federal funds range to 9 to 15 percent, with some caution as we go above 14 percent if that is indicated.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'If we do that, aren\'t we saying ""A,"" but doing ""B"" in effect?It seems very close to that because--'}]",no,,,,
190,192,19801219_195_5,MR. WALLICH.,"""And we would get some of the protection that you have in mind, Chuck.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Confidence in [none], Chuck? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Absolutely none. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Including your own? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Well, we owe it to ourselves-- '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I'll strike that. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'We could run those up and run those down, and the effect would be a form of multicurrency intervention.We could buy DM or we could go to the market and convert those DM into a SDR denominated deposit and we would then cover some of our exchange risks.We may worry about the investment side of things after--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""You are talking about a market that doesn't exist now.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'True.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Well, since I don't know much about SDRs, I would just make a few comments.One, there is a cost.The cost is more inflation in the United States, which we are committed to resisting, I thought.And we don't know how far these exchange rates are going to drift and how much they reflect differences in competitive shifts, structural shifts in these economies.Number two, I don't like to see a concentration of risk because I have confidence in no country.Perhaps, that's--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Confidence in [none], Chuck?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Absolutely none.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Including your own?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Well, we owe it to ourselves--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I'll strike that.""}]",no,,,,
191,193,19810331_161_2,MR. PARTEE.,"""I think we have to be very clear in terms of what the understandings are.""","It just shows how tricky this whole thing is; I hadn't understood it. I think we have to be very clear in terms of what the understandings are. Nothing happened adversely as a result of it, but I thought we had made a downward adjustment in the path that [would not be changed] until the Committee reconsidered the matter.","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""That is exactly what was done after the February 24th call. The borrowing level in the last 2 weeks of the first 4 weeks of the 8-week interval--I don't know what it was in the 3rd week, but it was very low in the 4th week--would have been zero. It was understood after that call that half the adjustment would be made to keep it at around $1 billion. And in the next 4-week period, we reverted to the original path, which itself implied borrowing of around $1 or $1.1 billion at that time. I thought that was made clear at the time. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Well, I hadn't understood that that was going to happen.I can see how that would be an interpretation, but this is the first I have heard of that--that it was a temporary reduction and then the path was restored.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I'm not sure that's quite right.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Well, that's why I asked the question.Peter seems to think so.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We set the path.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""That's my understanding of what was done.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""That is exactly what was done after the February 24th call.The borrowing level in the last 2 weeks of the first 4 weeks of the 8-week interval--I don't know what it was in the 3rd week, but it was very low in the 4th week--would have been zero.It was understood after that call that half the adjustment would be made to keep it at around $1 billion.And in the next 4-week period, we reverted to the original path, which itself implied borrowing of around $1 or $1.1 billion at that time.I thought that was made clear at the time.""}]",yes,no,,,
192,194,19810331_379_5,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""I'm a little surprised that you came out for ""C."" It's against that background that I ask this.""","Well, we will see. It would certainly ease our problems if it were over fairly soon. I'm a bit confused by what you said, [Larry]. I just want to clarify it. I'm a little surprised that you came out for ""C."" It's against that background that I ask this. My confusion is what numbers you are using. The numbers in the table, as I understand it, are adjusted M1 figures. So, when you talk about 7.3 percent last year, you are talking about the unadjusted figure.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'The idea that the country is going to adapt to this in a few months just does not jive with the New England experience. Now, maybe the rest of the country moves a lot faster than we do in New England, but I doubt it. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'The fact that we have much higher interest rates now indicates that the adjustment would take place more rapidly. We are seeing shorter lag times in everything. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Well, it may be more rapidly, but to argue that the adjustment is largely over I think is just wrong. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'In the early part of this month, increases had been about $2 billion.I would assume from here on out--or early next month--that the increases might be more in the $1 to $1-1/2 billion range and then come down again.We are at a higher rate of growth than we expected.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'You are talking about several billion a month.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Actually, Larry, the New England NOW account experience would indicate that we are not going to have a complete adjustment to NOW accounts for two years.The idea that the country is going to adapt to this in a few months just does not jive with the New England experience.Now, maybe the rest of the country moves a lot faster than we do in New England, but I doubt it.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'The fact that we have much higher interest rates now indicates that the adjustment would take place more rapidly.We are seeing shorter lag times in everything.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Well, it may be more rapidly, but to argue that the adjustment is largely over I think is just wrong.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,neutral,utterance
193,195,19810518_229_8,VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.,"""I'm influenced not only by the strength of the economy--and there is a widespread feeling around the country, and certainly in the market, that with the exception of the troubled sectors the economy is very strong--but I'm also influenced by the fact that if the President's program goes through, even with a compromise on the tax cut package, the fourth quarter is likely to be much stronger, and the third quarter probably somewhat stronger, than the present quarter.""","Unless you could tell us that, I feel that we have to go even further this way. I feel we should take alternative C, but not the initial borrowing assumption of $3 billion. I'd start off with a $2-1/4 to $2-1/2 billion borrowing assumption. I think that we have to have a fed funds range going up to 22 percent. And even that will be skewed; in other words, we are likely to be near the ceiling fairly quickly unless we are very lucky and we see much lower growth in May. I recognize, if we do get something on the order of 5-1/2 or 6 percent [M-1B] growth in May, what this would require in June and that, therefore, pressure is likely to continue mounting over that period until the end of June. It seems to me that we are better off to be very firm and vigorous in our responses early in the game. I'm influenced not only by the strength of the economy--and there is a widespread feeling around the country, and certainly in the market, that with the exception of the troubled sectors the economy is very strong--but I'm also influenced by the fact that if the President's program goes through, even with a compromise on the tax cut package, the fourth quarter is likely to be much stronger, and the third quarter probably somewhat stronger, than the present quarter. And in those circumstances we might have major problems [achieving] our fourth-quarter targets. I feel we are better off trying to nip this now than trying to be more gentle in our approach; the latter approach is going to store up a lot of problems toward the end of the year. That's all I'll say right now.","[{'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'What we\'ve done so far isn\'t having too much effect. So, I guess I would now come out somewhere between ""B"" and ""C,"" keeping borrowing around $2 billion and perhaps shading that up if necessary. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Solomon. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Well, unless the President told you this morning that he's willing to change his fiscal policy and have a balanced budget in fiscal 1982 by forgetting about tax cuts and cutting back on defense increases-- ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'The question answers itself. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'In addition, I have the same thoughts that were expressed here a little earlier: That we are putting a lot of pressure on various parts of the economy and that it\'s going to be hard to get out of this without some kind of financial crisis.The one really strong feeling I have is that monetary policy alone won\'t do the job for us.But we don\'t have much choice.Over the weekend I looked at the Bluebook and I thought about ""B"" tending toward ""A.""But the more I listen to the reports that things are pretty strong out there, it seems fairly clear that we don\'t have any option but to continue to restrain this economy.What we\'ve done so far isn\'t having too much effect.So, I guess I would now come out somewhere between ""B"" and ""C,"" keeping borrowing around $2 billion and perhaps shading that up if necessary.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Solomon.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Well, unless the President told you this morning that he's willing to change his fiscal policy and have a balanced budget in fiscal 1982 by forgetting about tax cuts and cutting back on defense increases--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'The question answers itself.'}]",yes,yes,,entailment,utterance
194,196,19810518_268_11,MR. CORRIGAN.,"""As I suggested earlier, there are some risks here, and I think we have to be prepared to take some risks.""","We have a little frustration, too, with respect to this question of how quickly the banking system responds to what we do. We saw a classic illustration of that in this period here, apropos to your comment earlier, Governor Partee. We seem to have a situation where, even when we begin to firm up, what happens for a couple of weeks is that the banks sit there and wait until Wednesday and cover their whole position on Wednesday. And the funds rate doesn't change except on Wednesday and then everybody discounts the change. And then for a week or two after the banks run down their excess reserves and end up with deficiencies. Somehow or other, in ways that are not clear to me, it takes a couple more weeks and we revise away all those deficiencies with ""as-of"" adjustments. Then finally, after all of those processes have run their course, we begin to see some pressure either in terms of borrowing or the funds rate, or both. I will also confess to a little continuing sense of frustration about the construction of and subsequent adjustments to the reserve paths, which comes up again in this forthcoming period. The Bluebook indicates that, looking out over the April-June period, any of the alternatives contemplates a substantial acceleration in reserve growth while at the same time about the same or less growth in money. I don't know what all that means except that maybe we don't know as much as we think we know. As I suggested earlier, there are some risks here, and I think we have to be prepared to take some risks. In the current circumstances I come out somewhere around ""C,"" too, partly because I think the economy, if anything, is stronger, and partly because I think money growth is likely to be stronger in the short run than we expect. And finally, like Governor Rice, if we have to take a bit of a slowdown or a decline in the economy, which we may have to do, I'd rather do it now than later, partly because I think it makes more sense in the context of hitting the annual targets but partly because it forestalls an even more serious problem that would occur if we let [money growth] continue to build up. Given all of that, I come out somewhere around ""C.""","[{'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""We have more than our share of frustrations in policy here, too. We just got through revising up the money supply a little in the first quarter, convincing ourselves that that made more sense. But now we find that the GNP may be revised up more, so we're further away than we thought we were. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Wait 'til next year's revision! ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'Yes. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""This leads us to conclude that it's distinctly possible that we can get a slowdown in money growth this year from last year, along the lines of the midpoint of our shift-adjusted range, without keeping interest rates that high that long, and to a point where we would see somewhat more real economic growth in '81 than the Board staff [has projected] and almost about the same real economic growth, close to 3 percent, in 1982.Admittedly, a lot of this is conjectural and one might even say speculative; but taking both of those reasons together tilts me toward alternative C.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Corrigan.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, when you were out, Governor Gramley spoke of some frustration in terms of trying to figure out what the economy is doing.We have more than our share of frustrations in policy here, too.We just got through revising up the money supply a little in the first quarter, convincing ourselves that that made more sense.But now we find that the GNP may be revised up more, so we're further away than we thought we were.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Wait 'til next year's revision!""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'Yes.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,entailment,utterance
195,197,19810518_579_1,SPEAKER(?).,"""No, I was going to vote--""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'How many will accept the 2 percent? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': ""Accept 2 percent? I'll accept either one. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Eight. I'm afraid I succeeded in biasing the thing. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ALTMANN.', 'text': 'Five.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Five, okay.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""There's an exception.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Was your hand up or down?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'I accept this.'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Do you prefer it?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I asked for preferences at this point.Now, let me just make sure.Who prefers the 2 percent period?Six.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ALTMANN.', 'text': 'Six.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That's great.Six and five.""}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': '[Not] including you.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""We're down to splitting hairs.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'How about 2-1/2 percent?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'How about ""2-1/2 percent or somewhat lower""?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': 'Or ""slightly.""'}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': ""Why don't we find out what people can accept.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, let me try.Who would accept the 3 percent or lower?Ten.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'All but Tony.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""We're within very narrow grounds.I'm interested in maximizing the happiness at this point.I biased this thing now.A lot of people will find the 2 percent unacceptable now, I presume.How many will accept the 2 percent?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': ""Accept 2 percent?I'll accept either one.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Eight.I'm afraid I succeeded in biasing the thing.""}]",no,,,,
196,198,19811006_481_3,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""If it's $4 or $5 billion, we wouldn't be.""","I don't know what the number is. But let's say it's distinctly below $2-1/2 billion; we will probably gradually be lowering the borrowing right off. If it's $4 or $5 billion, we wouldn't be.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I hope you are right in this sense. But what we are probably running into here is this: If the low money figure for publication this week is confirmed and next week is low, this $800 million that we started with will probably be lowered pretty promptly. If we get a bulge in the first week of October, it won't be. But if the first week in October is another low number--meaning it might be positive but only $1 billion or so--we'll probably get the borrowings down further. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Yes, in constructing this path we have allowed for an increase on the order of $2-1/2 billion in the first week of October. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""We've assumed that that level of borrowing implies a funds rate of something like 14-1/2 to 15-1/2 percent.I don't know if Peter thinks it is exactly in that range.We probably are going to get M-1B growth on the order of 6, 7, or 8 percent; so if that's right, I wouldn't assume any further drop in borrowing and the funds rate.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Steve, you may be right.I hope you are right in this sense.But what we are probably running into here is this: If the low money figure for publication this week is confirmed and next week is low, this $800 million that we started with will probably be lowered pretty promptly.If we get a bulge in the first week of October, it won't be.But if the first week in October is another low number--meaning it might be positive but only $1 billion or so--we'll probably get the borrowings down further.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Yes, in constructing this path we have allowed for an increase on the order of $2-1/2 billion in the first week of October.'}]",no,,,,
197,199,19811117_56_1,MR. BLACK.,"""That would be interesting to watch over time.""",That would be interesting to watch over time. I'm not sure that that will [continue].,"[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Well, in the short run our experience is that [growth in] money market funds tends to speed up with rate declines because of the lag in [the adjustment of] their rates. As rates declined this time, we found a rather unusual experience in that savings deposits at banks accelerated. I assume it was just some sort of cautionary inflow. But all the evidence we have is that, yes, as rates decline we still tend to see growth in M2 as deposits become a little more attractive relatively speaking. Now, this doesn't hold quite to the extent it did before because we do have components of M2 that move with market rates. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Let me tell you, it'd be--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'Would you care to designate him?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Now that Mr. Axilrod has consulted all of us--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': ""It depends on whether you're a smoker or a non-smoker.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Black.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""Steve, do you believe pretty confidently that if rates had come down M2 would have speeded up in view of the rate sensitivity that's so much in [evidence] now?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Well, in the short run our experience is that [growth in] money market funds tends to speed up with rate declines because of the lag in [the adjustment of] their rates.As rates declined this time, we found a rather unusual experience in that savings deposits at banks accelerated.I assume it was just some sort of cautionary inflow.But all the evidence we have is that, yes, as rates decline we still tend to see growth in M2 as deposits become a little more attractive relatively speaking.Now, this doesn't hold quite to the extent it did before because we do have components of M2 that move with market rates.""}]",yes,yes,-5 sentences,,
198,200,19811222_106_1,MR. KEEHN.,"""On the specific question--I'll comment [on my general views] later--I think there has been within the last 30 to 45 days a decided shift on the part of labor out our way.""","On the specific question--I'll comment [on my general views] later--I think there has been within the last 30 to 45 days a decided shift on the part of labor out our way. Their focus is now shifting from concentration on the financial aspects of the package to the job per se. For example, the UAW has indicated a willingness to reopen the auto workers contract; the Teamsters have reopened [their contract] and the trucking people that I talk to expect some significant concessions there. The UAW has specifically said they will reopen the Harvester contract; there they are going to try to get rid of the last increase that was given in October and there is going to be a discussion about the COLA increase coming up in the next couple of months as well as the pension increase that is scheduled for April. Harvester expects to get a hundred million dollars a year out of the renegotiation the union has authorized. I would echo Tony's comments; the industrial CEOs I have talked to are extremely gloomy and are expecting a very difficult 1982--a far deeper recession than most of the financial people I've talked to anticipate. Therefore, I think they are going to go into negotiations with a tougher attitude than they might have had six or eight months ago. I think there has been a big change on that front.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'So, it seems to be very widespread. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Eastern Pennsylvania you mean? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""There is an area around Lancaster and Harrisburg, the South Central area, where generally the unemployment rate is well under the national average. We have a director from Armstrong Cork in that area and he says that even Lancaster is feeling it this time around and they usually don't feel it. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Keehn. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""I wouldn't say a lot more than we are used to in my part of the country, but I am hearing of more cutbacks in the work force in the plants that are operating--not outright shutdowns but [reductions of] 450 here and 800 there.It is very common [to hear such reports] in talking to people and they are very common in the newspapers and radio reports.And it seems to be widespread; it is even happening in parts of our District where they usually don't feel recession as much.There is a part of Pennsylvania that is generally fairly insulated from that, and reports from there are about as pessimistic as elsewhere.So, it seems to be very widespread.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Eastern Pennsylvania you mean?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""There is an area around Lancaster and Harrisburg, the South Central area, where generally the unemployment rate is well under the national average.We have a director from Armstrong Cork in that area and he says that even Lancaster is feeling it this time around and they usually don't feel it.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Keehn.'}]",yes,no,,,
199,201,19811222_433_5,MR. BALLES.,"""So, despite all of our frustrations about what money is, how it behaves, and what should be in M1 and M2, it is still the only game in town as far as I am concerned.""","Mr. Chairman, one more observation: I'd just like to remind you that back in the mid-1970s we had one of the several Committees on the directive--some of us at this table served on it--chaired first by Bob Holland and later by Chuck Partee. We took a long, hard look at optimal control, working on the ultimate variables and not using money as the intermediate target. And the net of that was a dry hole. It just didn't prove to be doable in practice. So, despite all of our frustrations about what money is, how it behaves, and what should be in M1 and M2, it is still the only game in town as far as I am concerned. Some of the academics--and it is a real minority--are urging us to target on real interest rates or to target on nominal GNP. They get little, if any, support from their peers. That came out loud and clear in this recent academic conference that I mentioned yesterday. Despite the frustrations about the money supply--will the real money supply please stand up!--I think it's the only hope we have.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""But this is a reflection of a change in law. It's like the M1 adjustment problem. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""It's so clearly understandable by everybody that there's a rationale for taking it out. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I'm not arguing against taking it out. I'm just arguing against the notion that it will give us a clean analytically nice figure when we take it out. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Conceptually, the argument is very strong, as I see it, to take those out of M2 on liquidity grounds.But suppose we went ahead and did that.What we don't know is how much money is going into IRA accounts that otherwise would have been in M2 or is already in M2, so we'd get an artificial deflation of M2 in an attempt to improve the figure.In some long run sense it probably would be an improved figure, but it is not going to help us in 1982 in understanding M2, I suspect.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""You'd turn it into another M1-A.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""You'd have a shift-adjusted M2.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""That's inherent in almost anything we look at.Where's the money coming from, right?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Right.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""It can't stop us from--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""But this is a reflection of a change in law.It's like the M1 adjustment problem.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""It's so clearly understandable by everybody that there's a rationale for taking it out.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I'm not arguing against taking it out.I'm just arguing against the notion that it will give us a clean analytically nice figure when we take it out.""}]",yes,yes,sentence,,
200,202,19820330_97_3,MR. AXILROD.,"""I would not really want to give any technical advice on that particular point.""","Well, I would relax myself if it were between 8 and 10 percent. I think you're getting on to strong policy judgments beyond that. I would not really want to give any technical advice on that particular point.","[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'Is that published? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Yes. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'So the people in the market know what that number is? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Oh, yes; that's right. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""Are you not saying that, although we expect something in the 8 to 9 percent range, we should relax until it's 12 to 14 percent or something like that? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Except for 1980, which we threw out.And then 1981 gets thrown out by the machines.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Well, we didn't throw 1980 out.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""The last two years aren't in there.And it looks as if--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""We didn't throw out 1980, Mr. Chairman.And there is really a technical problem.We intervened through a model to smooth through and--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': '[Unintelligible] at the moment now.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""No, it lowered it.In effect, it put in a modest growth rate, which made the machine doubt the accelerated trend in '76 to '79.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""We're worse off than if you hadn't.It just would have thrown it out if you had left it alone.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'Is this specific seasonal for April in the public domain?Is that published?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'So the people in the market know what that number is?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Oh, yes; that's right.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""Are you not saying that, although we expect something in the 8 to 9 percent range, we should relax until it's 12 to 14 percent or something like that?""}]",yes,no,,,
201,203,19820824_193_4,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""I'm just making a technical point.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""It's a matter of choice here. We have a directive now that says immediately in the next sentence that somewhat more rapid growth would be acceptable [depending upon certain developments]. So, I think one could interpret this M2 running a bit high as basically being in line with the existing directive given that second sentence. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'I think M2 is being distorted by the fact that when interest rates go down, it pays the wealthy investor to move out of market instruments into money market funds. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Steve, under alternative A, had put in 10 percent for M2.At this moment in time [M1] is running below the 5 percent, but that target is for the quarter as a whole and it's not clear it is going to run below 5 percent for the quarter as a whole.That depends upon what we think is going to happen.If September continued more or less the way August is going so far, I suspect growth would be up to 5 percent.But we are clearly above the 9 percent so far on M2.It's a matter of choice here.We have a directive now that says immediately in the next sentence that somewhat more rapid growth would be acceptable[depending upon certain developments].So, I think one could interpret this M2 running a bit high as basically being in line with the existing directive given that second sentence.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'I think M2 is being distorted by the fact that when interest rates go down, it pays the wealthy investor to move out of market instruments into money market funds.'}]",no,,,,
202,204,19821005_179_4,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""I don't know whether we can [unintelligible] that issue.""","But, in my opinion, it's only going to be manageable with unusual exertions. And in the end I'm afraid this institution may be called upon for unusual exertion simply because there is no other in a comparable position. It's the only possibility in terms of having the leadership and the resources necessary to deal with some of these problems. I don't know whether we can [unintelligible] that issue. But I think that is the nature of the problem.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""In a very big sense, I think we are on the verge of victory in what we've been trying to do. It's a delicate situation, but it's also a very risky situation. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'What kind of victory, a Pyrrhic victory? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'No, though it could turn into a Pyrrhic victory. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""We're going to get prices going down. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""And that raises issues that we have not had to face before--except perhaps marginally in the case of Mexico.I don't know if it's going to come up; I hope it doesn't.My position is that it should not come up.On the other hand, I cannot exclude it, given the nature of the problem.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'How should we respond, if we are on the speaking circuit and are asked what our impression is of the international situation?How do you respond to that?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, with difficulty.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Very carefully.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Obviously, you give some sense of confidence as best you can.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Say ""I have another appointment.""'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Let me say in that connection--and I should have said it more clearly before--that I think this situation is manageable.In a very big sense, I think we are on the verge of victory in what we've been trying to do.It's a delicate situation, but it's also a very risky situation.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'What kind of victory, a Pyrrhic victory?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'No, though it could turn into a Pyrrhic victory.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""We're going to get prices going down.""}]",yes,no,,,
203,205,19821221_170_1,MR. AXILROD.,"""Well, that would only be if the Committee wanted to; we just suggested that.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""So the built-in response could be less and the practical question would be [whether to take] a $200 million, roughly, movement of total reserves beyond where the Committee wanted it on average to trigger an ad hoc adjustment to the nonborrowed [reserve path]. It may be as we gain experience that it will turn out to be more [appropriately] like $100 million movements if M2 is targeted. That would trigger a downward movement of some amount in the nonborrowed path because the automatic adjustment isn't big enough. That's the nature of what would happen. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""But you're going to expand that when you go to the shadow type of reserve requirement--the 3 percent as opposed to the 2 percent? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""I'm saying, as Lyle has just said, that we have to pay more attention to interest rates; I don't understand how the Desk would accommodate either an increase or a decrease in the nonborrowed path for the purpose of trying to adjust [operations] in an intermeeting period on [the basis of] a directive given to the Desk following the meeting.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Well, in general, M2 is less volatile than M1, though it is volatile, of course.But what would happen as it moved off a path is that the built-in response would, in fact, be less because it is less volatile than M1, fortunately.So the built-in response could be less and the practical question would be [whether to take] a $200 million, roughly, movement of total reserves beyond where the Committee wanted it on average to trigger an ad hoc adjustment to the nonborrowed [reserve path].It may be as we gain experience that it will turn out to be more [appropriately] like $100 million movements if M2 is targeted.That would trigger a downward movement of some amount in the nonborrowed path because the automatic adjustment isn't big enough.That's the nature of what would happen.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""But you're going to expand that when you go to the shadow type of reserve requirement--the 3 percent as opposed to the 2 percent?""}]",no,,,,
204,206,19821221_190_8,MR. BOEHNE.,"""But I certainly would stay quite flexible, with a sharp eye on interest rates.""","Well, I think it is the time for focusing on what works rather than some predetermined theology. That is clearly what we need. Jerry Corrigan put it well: An intermediate target is a very useful thing to have both for political and self discipline reasons. I think it's going to be a while, if ever, before M1 is clear. The idea that M1 is going to clear up enough by midyear just strikes me as unrealistic. Perhaps it will, but I think it is going to take a while for the reasons that Pres Martin mentioned. I would go with M2 as a primary target and with M3 as a secondary target, using credit as an informational variable. But I certainly would stay quite flexible, with a sharp eye on interest rates. With respect to the point that you raised about making our targets consistent with the Administration's, it does seem to me that velocity gives us a fair amount of leeway. [This year] we've had the sharpest drop in velocity in the postwar period, and heaven knows what velocity will do next year. It would seem to me that quite wide ranges could be very helpful in terms of being consistent with what we think is appropriate for M2 and M3. As to when or whether we will ever get back to M1, I would approach the issue with complete pragmatism, not a theological bias, and just keep an open mind. If it does clear up and we can make a case that it's a reliable variable at some point, then it's fine with me to go back to it. But I don't think we ought to force it.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't know how much longer [we can continue]. We're not going to get through everybody on this [issue today]. Not everybody wants to say something. Maybe we can go through a few more. Mr. Boehne. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': ""It's a bit vague; certainly M3 is a bit vague.For that matter M2 is not a model of clarity.But I'd like to see M2 and M3 specified and a little more emphasis in our public utterances on interest rates.We're not fooling anybody, you know.The folks out there know that we're paying a little more attention to interest rates.Why not come right up front with it?That we look at M2 and M3 as the validator is a plus.I think the word flexibility is part of the key to this.I wonder back on the discount rate cut, which wasn't exactly a world beater, what the markets would have done, as they firmed up, if we hadn't reduced the discount rate.So, I opt for flexibility.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't know how much longer [we can continue].We're not going to get through everybody on this [issue today].Not everybody wants to say something.Maybe we can go through a few more.Mr. Boehne.""}]",yes,yes,sentence,neutral,utterance
205,207,19821221_256_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Well, what I understand is that we were asked to give a Committee or a Board forecast.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'The bill rate is now slightly higher than it was in the middle of September. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'But Tony is right. The discount rate and the funds rate have been closely linked. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'They are bound to be when we are operating in a fairly narrow band of nonborrowed reserves. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Paul, do I understand that we have been asked to give more of a Committee forecast with the GNP and associated numbers like real GNP and-- '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""But I don't think the market or other people are faulting us one way or another for pegging an interest rate.I don't think that it has gotten to a point where they think we are pegging in a targeting sense.If the fed funds rate doesn't move more than 20 basis points or so except with a discount rate cut and that continues over a period of many months, then I think there will be an increasing feeling in the market that we, in effect--no matter what we say--are actually pegging in a targeting sense.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'The irony is that short-term rates have been fairly steady since September while we have reduced the discount rate about three times.The bill rate is now slightly higher than it was in the middle of September.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'But Tony is right.The discount rate and the funds rate have been closely linked.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'They are bound to be when we are operating in a fairly narrow band of nonborrowed reserves.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Paul, do I understand that we have been asked to give more of a Committee forecast with the GNP and associated numbers like real GNP and--'}]",no,,,,
206,208,19821221_402_2,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Well, we just have to wait and see.""","I don't think the IMF has said they would accept $4-1/2 billion except as a starting point--that they might go ahead temporarily if Mexico will be getting the rest later. Well, we just have to wait and see. But that's the general strategy. On Brazil, which is not irrelevant even though we have no money in there, the Treasury lent them $1-1/4 billion a couple of weeks [ago], which is the total amount of the Fund compensatory finance and first tranche--","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'That will really be serious. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Then we have a real problem. But they already have [commitments for] basically more than $4 billion except that some of that is contingent on getting more, so it's not perfectly clear yet. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Some of it is contingent also on not triggering the 1 percent SEC disclosure requirement; some of it is contingent on not exceeding the legal limit; most of it is contingent, in theory at least, on everybody else putting up their share. Certainly the IMF would accept $4-1/2 billion; whether they will accept significantly below $4-1/2 billion is the question. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""It just seems too uncertain, though, doesn't it, Tony?We just don't know.That bank credit might be [$4] billion instead of $5 billion or something like that.I don't know what a little shortfall like that does to their arithmetic.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""It will be more than $4 billion but the question is at what stage is it so small that the IMF doesn't feel able to go ahead?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'That will really be serious.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Then we have a real problem.But they already have [commitments for] basically more than $4 billion except that some of that is contingent on getting more, so it's not perfectly clear yet.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Some of it is contingent also on not triggering the 1 percent SEC disclosure requirement; some of it is contingent on not exceeding the legal limit; most of it is contingent, in theory at least, on everybody else putting up their share.Certainly the IMF would accept $4-1/2 billion; whether they will accept significantly below $4-1/2 billion is the question.'}]",yes,no,,,
207,209,19821221_635_1,MR. BALLES.,"""Just to nail that down once more, how many points off the M2 numbers in the Bluebook?""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""I'm sorry, I meant M2--I meant M3 actually. We used the numbers for M3, but we reduced M2. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Those you think are pretty good? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Yes. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'For the M3 numbers. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""In the first quarter, it's 2 percent real and 4-1/2 percent inflation.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Balles, you had a question before.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""Well, I think my clarifying question has been asked twice now.I gather that the alternatives set forth in the Bluebook on page 6 would be consistent only with alternative one of the directive, which you don't prefer.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""There are differing numbers in those alternatives.I'm suggesting that you might use alternative two, which incorporates the lower numbers that do not fully allow for the shifts.If you use the M3 numbers that are there but subtract 2 to 3 percentage points from the M1 number, you would not be making as much advance allowance for the shifts as is in the text, which is our best estimate of the shifts.However, the shifts may not occur.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'You said M1; did you mean M2?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""I'm sorry, I meant M2--I meant M3 actually.We used the numbers for M3, but we reduced M2.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Those you think are pretty good?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'For the M3 numbers.'}]",no,,,,
208,210,19830209_412_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Yes, but you're saying if your velocity assumption is wrong.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'If everybody else really believes his or her forecast and believes this velocity business, we ought to have higher-- '}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'Higher targets. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Higher targets. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Or, we might get more GNP with the same money, higher velocity, and not much interest rate change, if everyone decides to undo their liquidity. That's a possibility. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Our quarterly model, for what it's worth, given the interest rates and income, would predict about a 7 percent growth in Ml.That was one of the reasons I thought that a higher growth than 5-1/2 percent was likely; I couldn't see this downward demand shift we've been experiencing occurring this year because we're not ratcheting up interest rates and all that.So, I would say 6 or 7 percent seems to me about the right Ml.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Okay.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""All these fine velocity assumptions that he made in the Bluebook rest upon a staff forecast that probably has a lower nominal GNP than everybody else's forecast, or is at the bottom of the range, anyway, of everybody else's forecast.If everybody else really believes his or her forecast and believes this velocity business, we ought to have higher--""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'Higher targets.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Higher targets.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Or, we might get more GNP with the same money, higher velocity, and not much interest rate change, if everyone decides to undo their liquidity.That's a possibility.""}]",no,,,,
209,211,19830209_973_2,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Just to be clear, I think the second part would reflect a view that right now we don't want to tighten, which is implied by the existing language but is not quite as clear.""","Expecting; that's not promising, but expecting. Just to be clear, I think the second part would reflect a view that right now we don't want to tighten, which is implied by the existing language but is not quite as clear. If we're putting in both sentences, it says we don't want to tighten right now but we do contemplate easing if the aggregates are noticeably, or quite visibly, soft.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""and then you suggested something else that I didn't quite understand. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'The other thing is not an alternative; it just takes care of another possibility--a further [action] not for today. The first one says we will maintain the existing degree of reserve restraint; the second one says lesser restraint would be acceptable in the context of appreciable slowing of growth in the aggregates. That would not be for today but if the aggregates came in low in the next three or four weeks, we would ease. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Your first sentence was ""[existing degree of] reserve restraint expecting that this will..."" '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""It leaves open the question of how we quantify this or whether we quantify it at all in the directive.I think what that says is that we don't want to tighten up in this next seven-week period as we see it nowand we don't want to ease up unless the aggregates turn in a favorable direction.I would make that view fairly explicit.We can put in the numbers or not put in the numbers, I guess.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""What was the alternative you suggested?I understood the first thingand then you suggested something else that I didn't quite understand.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'The other thing is not an alternative; it just takes care of another possibility--a further [action] not for today.The first one says we will maintain the existing degree of reserve restraint; the second one says lesser restraint would be acceptable in the context of appreciable slowing of growth in the aggregates.That would not be for today but if the aggregates came in low in the next three or four weeks, we would ease.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Your first sentence was ""[existing degree of] reserve restraint expecting that this will...""'}]",yes,yes,sentence,,
210,212,19830524_272_2,MR. BOEHNE.,"""I think things are sort of at an even keel and if business and mortgage markets thought that the low rates were over and that rates not only were not going to stay about where they are but were going to back up, that would have a major negative impact on psychology.""","I would think that a prime rate increase that could be linked, rightly or wrongly, with a snugging up by the Fed would have a definite detrimental effect on these expectations of good things to happen. I think things are sort of at an even keel and if business and mortgage markets thought that the low rates were over and that rates not only were not going to stay about where they are but were going to back up, that would have a major negative impact on psychology.","[{'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': ""We're going to get an upward bias, which I think is the wrong thing at the present time. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't think one can say the market expects no change. A straightforward reading of the market says they already anticipate it. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROBERTS.', 'text': 'And with respect to the exchange rate, it has been going up while rates have been going down. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'Henry Kaufman put out the word: No change. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""One can't be 100 percent certain, but the probabilities are that the prime rate would go up if the funds rate is moved up as much as half a point, and it just seems to me that we're going much too far.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'What are the expectations in the markets about what the Committee is going to do, Peter--snug up or stay the same?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""Well, I think they're debating that very point with probably a majority thinking no change.But there would be some who would expect some snugging.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': ""The market seems to be expecting no change at all.I think Tony put his finger on the main risk.When the market senses that we are snugging up, they will help us; they will conclude that that is what we want and will add impetus to it.We're going to get an upward bias, which I think is the wrong thing at the present time.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't think one can say the market expects no change.A straightforward reading of the market says they already anticipate it.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROBERTS.', 'text': 'And with respect to the exchange rate, it has been going up while rates have been going down.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'Henry Kaufman put out the word: No change.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,sentence
211,213,19840327_252_1,MR. PARTEE.,"""It is conceivable that we might have some embarrassments looking ahead.""",It is conceivable that we might have some embarrassments looking ahead. We don't have any now. We can get out gracefully now. And it won't present a possible issue later on.,"[{'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""Going back some years, yes. When government securities were in short supply it was helpful but it hasn't been that critical. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""But that's no longer present. The market is mature; I don't see why we don't get out of it. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'We could have a line in the announcement that says that if the budgetary deficit-- '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, I don't think it is absolutely dependent but I may be wrong.Historically when we used to buy them outright--maybe not in recent years but going back to the '20s, '30s and '40s--somebody would sit there and say: Is this a good acceptance?Has it got the document attached?Does it meet the criteria of eligibility?That has faded away through the years.I think that was part of the purpose of our being in there: That we would only buy the good stuff and the idea was that the market would then gravitate toward the good stuff because that's the only thing we would buy.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""Wasn't there a time, though, in the recent past when we used bankers acceptances when collateral was otherwise short?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""Going back some years, yes.When government securities were in short supply it was helpful but it hasn't been that critical.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""But that's no longer present.The market is mature; I don't see why we don't get out of it.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'We could have a line in the announcement that says that if the budgetary deficit--'}]",yes,no,,,
212,214,19840327_692_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""I think you're back at the wording of the directive.""",I think you're back at the wording of the directive. Let me see whether we can sort this out.,"[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Except that you have promoted M1. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, that's a separate decision. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""I think there is a difference between starting off the way the Chairman has been talking about on the degree of reserve restraint and then saying the Committee believes these to be consistent with intermeeting monetary targets of X and Y or whatever, and putting it this way. The substance of what we do may not be different, but I think it will be the impression in the markets that we are returning toward much more emphasis on the monetary aggregates, and more volatility in interest rates then becomes a possibility. And I don't think that's a helpful thing at this time. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't know what ball game you think we've been playing in the last few months, but I don't see much difference here, frankly.It says we're going to set a restraint level and we're going to stick to it depending upon how these aggregates go, but we are going to look at what is going on in the economy before we change it.I think that's what we've been saying.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Except that you have promoted M1.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, that's a separate decision.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""I think there is a difference between starting off the way the Chairman has been talking about on the degree of reserve restraint and then saying the Committee believes these to be consistent with intermeeting monetary targets of X and Y or whatever, and putting it this way.The substance of what we do may not be different, but I think it will be the impression in the markets that we are returning toward much more emphasis on the monetary aggregates, and more volatility in interest rates then becomes a possibility.And I don't think that's a helpful thing at this time.""}]",yes,,,,
213,215,19840522_115_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""If those banks down in Atlanta aren't worried about Continental, I assume they are fully funded.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': ""On the wage side, the automobile people I talked to--and I talked to them as recently as last week--are indicating that they think the auto settlement could well be a leading indicator and they are concerned about what might happen during those negotiations. Just one final point: I was a little surprised that the marketplace in Atlanta and elsewhere didn't seem to be very concerned about the Continental situation. There was very little discussion about that in the marketplace. In summary, Mr. Chairman, in terms of policy decisions, I think the staff is right that we're going to see some moderation in the economy and that inflation seems to be pretty well under control. All the indicators that we look at--commodity prices and the price of gold and the exchange value of the dollar and so on--seem to confirm that inflation is not at the moment a very large problem. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': ""This is more of a gut feeling, I suppose, that inflation is going to pop up again probably by the end of the year; they don't have any hard evidence except in some isolated industries where they are seeing some price increases.On the wage side, the automobile people I talked to--and I talked to them as recently as last week--are indicating that they think the auto settlement could well be a leading indicator and they are concerned about what might happen during those negotiations.Just one final point: I was a little surprised that the marketplace in Atlanta and elsewhere didn't seem to be very concerned about the Continental situation.There was very little discussion about that in the marketplace.In summary, Mr. Chairman, in terms of policy decisions, I think the staff is right that we're going to see some moderation in the economy and that inflation seems to be pretty well under control.All the indicators that we look at--commodity prices and the price of gold and the exchange value of the dollar and so on--seem to confirm that inflation is not at the moment a very large problem.""}]",no,,,,
214,216,19840821_21_4,MR. PARTEE.,"""I seem to recall that we observed the same kind of phenomenon when Franklin borrowed sizable amounts in the summer of 1974, and I'm wondering whether there isn't something about the channels of distribution that could have some marginal impact on the rate relationship.""","Peter, I too am sort of mystified by this up-creep in the funds rate relative to borrowings. It's really quite obvious and seems to be rather enduring. You mentioned Continental's borrowing in a negative way--as not being a factor--but I'm inclined to wonder whether in fact it isn't a factor. I seem to recall that we observed the same kind of phenomenon when Franklin borrowed sizable amounts in the summer of 1974, and I'm wondering whether there isn't something about the channels of distribution that could have some marginal impact on the rate relationship.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'If it did happen pretty soon, would you hold to your borrowing target and let the federal funds rate come down? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""Well, that would depend a good deal on the nature of the discussion around the table here. I think [the answer is] mechanically, yes, but there are nuances in the day-to-day execution of policy in that we'd want to take guidance from the Committee's sentiment. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'That would be the mechanical [response]. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Partee. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Any comments or questions about the earlier part?Mr. Black.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""Peter, do you regard this recently widening spread between the discount rate and federal funds rate as a transitory phenomenon that's likely to be reversed fairly soon?If so, how would the Desk react to that?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""I consider it transitory in the sense that I don't regard it as permanent, but I have some real question about whether it will reverse very soon.I think it might tend to narrow graduallybut I don't have a strong sense of confidence as to the timing or extent of that.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'If it did happen pretty soon, would you hold to your borrowing target and let the federal funds rate come down?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""Well, that would depend a good deal on the nature of the discussion around the table here.I think [the answer is] mechanically, yes, but there are nuances in the day-to-day execution of policy in that we'd want to take guidance from the Committee's sentiment.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'That would be the mechanical [response].'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Partee.'}]",yes,yes,,,
215,217,19840821_268_1,VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.,"""But we don't know how long that shift will persist.""",But we don't know how long that shift will persist. The usual--,"[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'There would be two ways of going at it and getting the same result: one prejudging and one not prejudging. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Chuck, even though we did end up with a higher Fed funds rate than we would have expected for a $1 billion borrowing assumption, it seems to me we'd be imprudent now to reduce that borrowing level. It seems to me a little premature, given the strength of the expansion, to move down, say, to $700 or $800 million of borrowing. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Well, I was asking this as a technical matter. If you thought that there had been a shift in the demand, the way to address it would be to change the borrowing level. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Clearly, another way would be not necessarily to change itbut, as we observe what is happening in the course of operations, to adjust in the way we might adjust if we observed more excess reserves and a change in borrowing attitudes.We would be more willing to oversupply nonborrowed reserves to accommodate it.We would end up with a little less borrowing than was plugged into the path.There would be two ways of going at it and getting the same result: one prejudging and one not prejudging.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Chuck, even though we did end up with a higher Fed funds rate than we would have expected for a $1 billion borrowing assumption, it seems to me we'd be imprudent now to reduce that borrowing level.It seems to me a little premature, given the strength of the expansion, to move down, say, to $700 or $800 million of borrowing.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Well, I was asking this as a technical matter.If you thought that there had been a shift in the demand, the way to address it would be to change the borrowing level.'}]",no,,,,
216,218,19850213_207_5,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Maybe we can dispose of that issue quickly, if you haven't changed your opinion.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. GAINOR.', 'text': ""While we don't think it is monetary policy's role to deal with this, monetary policy is not going to be immune in that there is a great deal of sensitivity to interest rates. And if rates start to rise, I think perhaps some political pressure that currently is not on the Fed will gravitate toward us. So we are concerned about rates in that context. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'If nobody else has anything to say, maybe we ought to have Mr. Axilrod say something about these targets for next year. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.] '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GAINOR.', 'text': ""There are serious debt problems; collateral value is falling; and it has become a fairly hot political issue in our District and elsewhere, as you can imagine.There are bills in every one of our [state] legislatures to try to provide some relief for the agricultural sector.Most deal with ways to moderate the impact of debt service for the farmers.And, of course, one of the objectives is to provide some liquidity for spring planting--cash for seed--which is a very serious issue.While we don't think it is monetary policy's role to deal with this, monetary policy is not going to be immune in that there is a great deal of sensitivity to interest rates.And if rates start to rise, I think perhaps some political pressure that currently is not on the Fed will gravitate toward us.So we are concerned about rates in that context.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'If nobody else has anything to say, maybe we ought to have Mr. Axilrod say something about these targets for next year.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.]'}]",no,,,,
217,219,19850521_132_1,MR. AXILROD.,"""I think what you're observing is the interest sensitivity of M1.""","I think what you're observing is the interest sensitivity of M1. This is why the models have been predicting large growth in M1. This was somewhat of a phenomenon in earlier periods. Part of the growth of the Super NOWs, of course, is related to the switching out of NOWs when the minimum went down from $2500 to $1000 at the beginning of this year. But if you go back for six months, there has been a $10 or $11 billion increase in regular NOW accounts, including Super NOWs, so that they have been--as they have been in the past--a large part of the increase in M1. That is the reason we have been contending that M1 cannot have the same degree of weight it had in 1979-1982. There are a lot of reasons for that, but one is that one cannot be certain how M1 velocity is going to behave under different circumstances. I think President Morris rightly points out that the interest sensitivity has increased with the Super NOWs and NOWs in M1 and the sluggish behavior of their rates was indeed quite a phenomenon in 1982 and early 1983. But after a while we are not sure what is going to happen to that interest sensitivity. If the institutions begin moving their rates with the market rates, then to a degree that interest sensitivity will diminish. Our own uncertainty in that respect is one of the reasons that we are a little reluctant to advocate M1 strongly at this point. We just haven't had experience in varying kinds of circumstances as we go through all of these transitions.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'It also raises again the question that I have been raising for several years: If a large, and the fastest growing, component of M1 is paying a rate very close to the money market mutual funds rate, should you expect the aggregate that contains that rapidly growing component to behave the same way as it has in the past? Quite clearly, it seems to me, the new M1 is going to be more interest sensitive than the old M1 as long as the stickiness of the Super NOW account rate persists; and the relationship between the new M1 and the nominal GNP is going to be as unpredictable as it has been during the past few years. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'It all sounds very plausible to me. I asked a similar question to the staff recently and they told me there was nothing to it, so I will let them respond. I may have misinterpreted their answer. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""As the opportunity cost changes I think you would expect that the public's willingness to hold Super NOWs relative to money market funds would change; and it changes in precisely the direction that you would expect.So, I think this explains a part of the acceleration in M1 growth--not all of it, but a part of it.It also raises again the question that I have been raising for several years: If a large, and the fastest growing, component of M1 is paying a rate very close to the money market mutual funds rate, should you expect the aggregate that contains that rapidly growing component to behave the same way as it has in the past?Quite clearly, it seems to me, the new M1 is going to be more interest sensitive than the old M1 as long as the stickiness of the Super NOW account rate persists; and the relationship between the new M1 and the nominal GNP is going to be as unpredictable as it has been during the past few years.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'It all sounds very plausible to me.I asked a similar question to the staff recently and they told me there was nothing to it, so I will let them respond.I may have misinterpreted their answer.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,,
218,220,19851001_128_10,MR. FORRESTAL.,"""If there were extreme changes in the value of the dollar one way or the other, I think that we ought to move aggressively.""","A very low saving rate as well. The inflation picture looks pretty good. Everyone I have talked to doesn't see any price pressures at all. There are certainly no wage pressures in my area. Altogether, I think that the situation, while not dramatically great, is certainly better than it has been. And I think the outlook is reasonably favorable for the economy to grow at about the trend rate of 2 to 3 percent for the year as a whole. As far as monetary policy is concerned, we have all of these imbalances that we talked about considerably this morning and I don't think that there is very much we can do about those imbalances. So my feeling, Mr. Chairman, is that we should stay pretty much where we are in terms of policy. The dollar, of course, is something that we obviously will want to watch very carefully. If there were extreme changes in the value of the dollar one way or the other, I think that we ought to move aggressively. But as I see the picture at the moment--given the economic growth, the declining dollar, and the absence of inflation [pressures]--I would stay where we are. I guess that means alternative B, although that perhaps suggests a slight uptick in market conditions. M1 is a lingering concern; I am nervous about that. On the other hand, I wouldn't take any positive action to try to bring its growth down appreciably. I hope it will come down on its own accord in October. But particularly in light of what has happened in the G-5 meetings, I don't think we ought to be doing anything to run interest rates up. In terms of the specifics, I would stay about where we are, maybe about $450 to $550 million in borrowing and that probably means a federal funds rate of 7-7/8 or 8 percent. I don't think it makes a lot of difference which of those we come out with. Just to complete the specifics: On the question of the variants, I would like to use variant I.","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': ""I would think that perhaps we are going to have a little less strength in housing than in the Greenbook, but otherwise I am generally in accord. I think consumer spending is a real question mark here. My staff is telling me that they expect consumer spending to increase, especially in durables. I am not sure that that's a correct assessment, given the high debt level and the personal income situation that we have. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'And a very low saving rate. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': ""The people I talked to are seeing some forward momentum in the economy that they think is going to carry over into the fourth quarter and, indeed, into the first half of 1986.Now, that view of the economy may be influenced a little by conditions in the Southeast, which are relatively better I guess than in some other parts of the country.While we have some weaknesses, particularly in export-related areas such as textiles and so on, those weaknesses are being offset by strengths otherwise.On the aggregate picture, I would agree pretty much with the forecast of the Greenbook, although on the composition of that forecast I would differ marginally.I would think that perhaps we are going to have a little less strength in housing than in the Greenbook, but otherwise I am generally in accord.I think consumer spending is a real question mark here.My staff is telling me that they expect consumer spending to increase, especially in durables.I am not sure that that's a correct assessment, given the high debt level and the personal income situation that we have.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'And a very low saving rate.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,utterance
219,221,19851217_422_12,MR. MORRIS.,"""But there's a long time until the next meeting; and if the dollar should start strengthening in the exchange markets, I would lead off with a cut in the discount rate.""","I think the gnomes would look at our situation and would say: ""Well, the dollar is going down; the economic news is mixed but certainly not weak; and the perception is that monetary policy is very accommodative."" What we actually have in the monetary numbers is a split decision: M1 and debt suggest a very expansionary policy; M2, M3, and total liquid assets suggest a moderate policy. If we could arrange to publish an M3 figure weekly and only publish M1 once a month, I think that people looking at the M3 numbers weekly would get a perception that U.S. monetary policy is not terribly accommodative and that might be helpful to us. But it seems to me in this situation that we ought to stick to a status quo policy until we get a trigger that will permit us to lower interest rates. One trigger would be a sustained upward turn in the dollar in the exchange markets. The gnomes, I think, would find it acceptable if we were to check that with a decline in short-term money rates. The other trigger might be a serious weakening in the economic news, which I don't think is terribly likely; I think we'll float along in this continued mixed situation without any serious weakness. I'm not thinking of that as a very great trigger. And the third trigger would be if the monetary aggregates, and particularly M1 because of it's signal value, should start coming in on the weak side. So until then, it seems to me that it's a little hazardous for us [to ease]; I don't think we can really make a very strong case that a move at this time is compatible with continued emphasis on inflation control. So, I think we ought to go with alternative B. But there's a long time until the next meeting; and if the dollar should start strengthening in the exchange markets, I would lead off with a cut in the discount rate.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""But we're not a closed economy. We have overhanging us a necessity to continue to finance a $140 billion current account deficit. So we have to keep in mind what the gnomes of Zurich are thinking about us. I hate to alarm, I hate to recognize-- ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'All of us have a little gnome in the back of our heads. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I presume the center of gravity is toward some easing so we can get these money and credit figures really moving![Laughter.]'}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': ""They're perverse; they might turn around the other way.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Maybe so.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'We tighten, then they move up.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'So, who would like to say something?Mr. Morris.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""Well, Mr. Chairman, if ours were a closed economy, I would support some lowering of interest rates at the moment.The forecast may be reasonable, but I don't think it's acceptable as a good target.I would share your concern about a 4 percent pattern of real growth, but it seems to me that 2 percent is not acceptable as a target; 3 percent would be more in line with what I think we ought to shoot for.But we're not a closed economy.We have overhanging us a necessity to continue to finance a $140 billion current account deficit.So we have to keep in mind what the gnomes of Zurich are thinking about us.I hate to alarm, I hate to recognize--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'All of us have a little gnome in the back of our heads.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,sentence
220,222,19860212_153_8,MR. GUFFEY.,"""I will just make one observation with respect to the energy situation and how it may impact my District.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'Picking up on what Governor Johnson has just noted, I think there will be a greater impact on prices coming from the decrease in the oil price than there will be from the effects of the dollar, and I think the dollar effects will [begin to] show up later in 1986 and have a greater impact in 1987. Therefore, I would look for inflation to be somewhat lower than the staff forecast. With respect to the Tenth District, I am delighted to hear that there is some brightness being exhibited in the Ninth District. Maybe it will flow with the cold air down across our part of country! '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Did you find a copper mine in Colorado? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'and I think we really have to watch that situation carefully and [determine] what the lags look like in terms of commodity prices and how that filters all the way into other production prices.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Guffey.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, very briefly I want to say that my forecast is very similar to the staff forecast, deviating marginally with respect to the projection for prices; our projection is a bit lower than the staff's.Picking up on what Governor Johnson has just noted, I think there will be a greater impact on prices coming from the decrease in the oil price than there will be from the effects of the dollar, and I think the dollar effects will [begin to] show up later in 1986 and have a greater impact in 1987.Therefore, I would look for inflation to be somewhat lower than the staff forecast.With respect to the Tenth District, I am delighted to hear that there is some brightness being exhibited in the Ninth District.Maybe it will flow with the cold air down across our part of country!""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Did you find a copper mine in Colorado?'}]",no,,,,
221,223,19860819_299_6,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""I can't entirely exclude a move, but the straight answer to your question is: I wouldn't count on it purely because of [concern about] exchange rate movements.""","Well, I think the answer to that question is no. Whether I would exclude it entirely, I don't know. I am afraid neither of them will move without the other moving and I just [unintelligible]. I can find that out, but my suspicion is they won't. I can't entirely exclude a move, but the straight answer to your question is: I wouldn't count on it purely because of [concern about] exchange rate movements. There is no doubt that they would like to move. If the Germans moved, [the British and French] would move in a second. But one thing I am sure of is that the Germans aren't going to move in a second.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'What is sterling doing? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""It has gotten some strength but net, on balance, it's down against the dollar. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think both the British and the French are probably in an untenable position. They would both like to ease but neither wants to pay any price in terms of their exchange rate. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""Then you wouldn't expect them to move until Germany moves? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'That probably [now] appears as a very small blip on the charts.But they were both very sensitive to that fact.We probably discussed that as late as a Tuesday, at an Open Market Committee meeting, and they had told me the previous weekend that they would move.But on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, or at least on Thursday and Friday, their exchange rates weakened--the British pound because it kind of got caught up in this oil situation and the French franc for other reasons, I think.They just felt uneasy about moving when their exchange rate was weakening.And that is the same hang-up they have now since the franc has weakened further against the mark.What is sterling doing?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""It has gotten some strength but net, on balance, it's down against the dollar.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think both the British and the French are probably in an untenable position.They would both like to ease but neither wants to pay any price in terms of their exchange rate.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""Then you wouldn't expect them to move until Germany moves?""}]",yes,no,,,
222,224,19861216_442_16,MR. BOYKIN.,"""So, while there is not anything really to brag about openly, we are going to go along and gradually improve.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': ""Nonresidential construction is off. So it's a very mixed picture, Mr. Chairman, in the Southeast. Despite that, there is still a fair degree of confidence among most people outside of Louisiana that we are going to have continued expansion in 1987. There is the evidence that the trade situation is turning around and there is an expectation on the part of people in the export-related areas that they are going to see improvement in 1987. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Boykin. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': ""Now, that's a lower price than we have heard before.The farm sector also is fairly depressed in most areas of the Southeast.We are looking for greater liquidation, mostly due to the drought that we suffered last summer.More and more farmers are being forced to the wall and land prices continue to plummet in many areas.In the housing sector, we are finding generally that single-family home construction is picking up in several areas in response to sales of new homes.I don't know how that squares with the latest numbers, but that was the information that we had.Nonresidential construction is off.So it's a very mixed picture, Mr. Chairman, in the Southeast.Despite that, there is still a fair degree of confidence among most people outside of Louisiana that we are going to have continued expansion in 1987.There is the evidence that the trade situation is turning around and there is an expectation on the part of people in the export-related areas that they are going to see improvement in 1987.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Boykin.'}]",no,,,,
223,225,19861216_490_1,MR. TRUMAN.,"""Well, [unintelligible] you're right about how the rest of the world is behaving.""","Well, [unintelligible] you're right about how the rest of the world is behaving. Your words about the rest of the world suggested an even soggier picture; that too could affect the base prices and then you don't have the given exchange rate change. Whatever you want to assume about [unintelligible] could be less--","[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'Moving both at the same time is built in this four-quarter time period-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""It just seems to me, Ted, that we do have quite ample capacity at a lot of these manufacturers in basic industry areas worldwide. The evidence seems to point to increased determination to be competitive by one means or another, whether it's by subsidy or some other event. And I tend to feel that the world prices are continuing on a moderate plane. But much of it would be-- ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'It seems to me that if the price pattern is stronger we will then get more desire to hold inventories and the economy could turn out to be stronger than the staff estimates.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""Well, there's another factor too.To the extent--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Your argument is that they go together?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'There has been a lot of discussion about import prices and I share the skepticism, both ways, that has been expressed on that.But to the extent that you get import prices moving more rapidly you would then have a direct impact in terms of statistical aggregate demand, because real GNP presumably would also accelerate in the process of import substitution that Governor Heller spoke of.So there is a direct link there even with the [unintelligible] of inventory.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'Moving both at the same time is built in this four-quarter time period--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""It just seems to me, Ted, that we do have quite ample capacity at a lot of these manufacturers in basic industry areas worldwide.The evidence seems to point to increased determination to be competitive by one means or another, whether it's by subsidy or some other event.And I tend to feel that the world prices are continuing on a moderate plane.But much of it would be--""}]",yes,no,,,
224,226,19861216_515_4,MR. JOHNSON.,"""Although I favored [a tilt] last time, I feel a bit more strongly about it this time.""","I'll volunteer. After condensing all of this--what I hear and the way I feel--I don't feel strongly about changing monetary policy from where we were before. I still think that a $300 million borrowing target is about right. Although I favored [a tilt] last time, I feel a bit more strongly about it this time. I think we might want some asymmetric language in the directive because of the potential I've heard mentioned for a little more downside risks this time, at least in the first half of the year. I think the inflation picture looks a little less risky now than it did earlier, so we might want to change the mights and woulds in the directive to be asymmetric toward potential ease rather than tightness at this point. But I don't feel too strongly about it; I feel a little more strongly than last time, but it's just a suggestion.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'Well, it dissipates slowly in the model. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""We'll go and have a short lag for coffee. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, after half of an afternoon and most of the morning we have to get to a decision. Who would like to say something? We have a volunteer--Governor Johnson. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""And you're saying that the lag is more than six months?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'Well, the total lag would be more than six months.The models probably were projecting a bit more of a slowdown over the last couple of months than we actually had.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I wonder what they are projecting for the first quarter?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'For the first quarter they are projecting anywhere from 11 to 14 percent, or 10 to 14 percent on this November-to-March basis.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'What would they project for the second quarter, assuming unchanged interest rates?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'They would project a first quarter of 13 percent and a second quarter of 9 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Even then they don't get down to the [growth rate of] nominal GNP.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'No.They would get there by the second half of the year.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'A one-year lag?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'Well, it dissipates slowly in the model.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""We'll go and have a short lag for coffee.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, after half of an afternoon and most of the morning we have to get to a decision.Who would like to say something?We have a volunteer--Governor Johnson.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
225,227,19870211_417_2,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""That's one of my language changes here: not just passively ""could"" but ""should.""""",,"[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I think I've got five points. You have four, you're saying? ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'You can get but so many in the paragraph. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""No, no I think I've got it. You're saying: first, there's no target as such; second, there is some broad expectation that M1 will be slower this year than last year; third, you loosely specify some conditions under which it could be very high and loosely specify conditions under which it could be very low; and then-- ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""And at a particular time during the year, the implication is that we may specify a target.Those four thoughts somehow we should get in the paragraph.I know that's pretty vague.We'll come back with [specific] language; I think it needs a little massaging.Is that acceptable, generally?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'I assume also that this M1 performance would be evaluated in view of the other aggregates that we have set targets for.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Yes, that point would be made.The context in which rapid or slow growth would be appropriate would depend upon the other aggregates.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""Let me see.I think I've got five points.You have four, you're saying?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'You can get but so many in the paragraph.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""No, no I think I've got it.You're saying: first, there's no target as such; second, there is some broad expectation that M1 will be slower this year than last year; third, you loosely specify some conditions under which it could be very high and loosely specify conditions under which it could be very low; and then--""}]",no,,,,
226,228,19870331_265_12,MR. FORRESTAL.,"""But even if our trading partners don't make those moves, if the dollar were to fall somewhat more I'd be prepared to go ahead unilaterally on our own.""","As I look at the domestic economy, Mr. Chairman, I don't see any case at all for doing anything with respect to policy at the present time. We have had reports around the table this morning that reflect perhaps somewhat better economic conditions than we had last time. The forecast isn't all that bad, although inflation looks like it's going to be ticking up toward the end of the year. But I think all of this is premature with respect to policy. For purely domestic reasons I would prefer to stay where we are. The only reason that I would favor a move in interest rates or a move in the borrowing is because of the dollar. Again, I think perhaps we are in a position where we can afford to wait a little longer to see what happens with the dollar. It's possible that this Japan bashing that's going on with respect to the semi-conductor situation may resolve itself. When we get past this quarter some of the window dressing that the Japanese are engaged in may sort itself out and we may have a little easing of the pressure on the dollar. If that doesn't happen I would certainly want to be in a position to move rapidly to counter any further significant drop in the dollar. With respect to Governor Johnson's point, I think it certainly would be wonderful if we could get the interest rate differentials to contract a little. But even if our trading partners don't make those moves, if the dollar were to fall somewhat more I'd be prepared to go ahead unilaterally on our own. With respect to the directive, I too would favor giving a more prominent place in that directive to the foreign exchange situation. One other point that I would make is that I'm not so sure that the word ""instability"" that is in the directive is the right one. The phrase ""in light of the recent instability"" strikes me as being a bit on the strong side. I would prefer language that would suggest recent weakness of the dollar.","[{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""I'm not sure that I would be prepared to go to $500 million. On the other hand, I feel that there may be some advantage to showing some modestly higher interest rates earlier rather than later--that is, to permit the market to understand that somewhat higher interest rates effected by the Federal Reserve, as opposed to just the technical factors, would be acceptable in the near term. However, the point is--and I think Jerry made this point very well--that this does not mean a change in Federal Reserve policy but rather the management of Federal Reserve policy at or about the level that we presently operate. The other thing that I would just mention is that, contrary to some other comments that have been made, I would move the reference on the dollar in the directive to a more prominent level; I would move it up in that sentence as proposed in the directive language and as mentioned by Don Kohn. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Forrestal. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'Having that in mind, and trying to capture that within the framework of the way we talk about these things, that is somewhere in the ""B-C"" area.I\'m not sure that I would be prepared to go to $500 million.On the other hand, I feel that there may be some advantage to showing some modestly higher interest rates earlier rather than later--that is, to permit the market to understand that somewhat higher interest rates effected by the Federal Reserve, as opposed to just the technical factors, would be acceptable in the near term.However, the point is--and I think Jerry made this point very well--that this does not mean a change in Federal Reserve policy but rather the management of Federal Reserve policy at or about the level that we presently operate.The other thing that I would just mention is that, contrary to some other comments that have been made, I would move the reference on the dollar in the directive to a more prominent level; I would move it up in that sentence as proposed in the directive language and as mentioned by Don Kohn.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Forrestal.'}]",yes,yes,,contradiction,utterance
227,229,19870331_492_1,MR. BLACK.,"""That's the best one if we don't go with 4 to 7 percent.""",That's the best one if we don't go with 4 to 7 percent.,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'If they came in at 4 percent, all other things being equal, would that be a cause for easing? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'Not if we had to restrain reserves. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': 'Not [unintelligible] at this point in time. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'I think the only feasible alternative to what you suggested is 6 percent. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We can say 4 to 6 percent, or we can say around 6 percent or less. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'I believe that a continuation of M2 along a 5 percent path would be consistent with the dollar stabilizing.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""That's not true.That's not what the staff says.They have already built the March numbers into their projection.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'The staff would be the first to admit that there is a range of uncertainty around that.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""We all agree but that's--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'One percentage point was perhaps being generous to the staff.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'But then that means that you expand on either side of that uncertainty.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'We can say 6 percent or less; let me try that again.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""We can say 6 percent or less but I guess the substantive question is whether we, in fact, would be concerned if the aggregates came in at 4 percent, let's say.If they came in at 4 percent, all other things being equal, would that be a cause for easing?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'Not if we had to restrain reserves.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': 'Not [unintelligible] at this point in time.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'I think the only feasible alternative to what you suggested is 6 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We can say 4 to 6 percent, or we can say around 6 percent or less.'}]",yes,yes,-5 sentences,ambiguous,
228,230,19870519_88_6,MR. JOHNSON.,"""And I've never gotten a really satisfactory explanation of which one makes the most sense.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""I think it really comes down to some doubt about whether we can keep these adjustments to be one-time adjustments or whether we're about to set off a new upward trend in inflation. I think that is the real change in the last six weeks to two months--that concern about inflation is significantly higher than it was the last time we met. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'Are we going around the table now? I wanted to ask Jim something before we did that. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'You can insert a question. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""In the trade area, at least I feel better--not so much because we're exceeding expectations but because some evidence supporting the forecast of a turnaround, while not dramatic, seems to be there.There is some positive evidence that exports are improving and that we can expect some strength in that area.However, I think the real news on the national scene is what's happening to inflation.It's not so much that the indicators of inflation are going up; I think we expected that in terms of energy and import prices.What is of concern--and we see it in financial markets, but we also hear it in just talking to business people generally--is a heightened concern about the future course of inflation.I think it really comes down to some doubt about whether we can keep these adjustments to be one-time adjustments or whether we're about to set off a new upward trend in inflation.I think that is the real change in the last six weeks to two months--that concern about inflation is significantly higher than it was the last time we met.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'Are we going around the table now?I wanted to ask Jim something before we did that.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'You can insert a question.'}]",no,,,,
229,231,19870922_240_2,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""I, personally, would go along with those vague notions of Governor Johnson on the issue of not fighting the world to try to get $600 million in this maintenance period, because it may be a futile endeavor.""","Well, it is clear that there is a fairly strong consensus here for alternative B, at $600 million on borrowing; there is a small support amongst the voting members for a tilt toward something stronger in the language, and something on the other side. I, personally, would go along with those vague notions of Governor Johnson on the issue of not fighting the world to try to get $600 million in this maintenance period, because it may be a futile endeavor. It may, in fact, give signals, which is a point that Governor Seger raised earlier in this meeting that struck me as a reason not to specifically fight that number. But, as I read the instructions that I've just been given, the language apparently should read: ""In the implementation of policy for the immediate future, the Committee seeks to maintain the degree of pressure on reserve positions sought in recent weeks. Somewhat greater or somewhat lesser reserve restraint would be acceptable depending on indications of inflationary pressures, strength in the business expansion, developments in foreign exchange markets, as well as the behavior of the aggregates. This approach is expected to be consistent with growth in M2 and M3 over the period from August to December at annual rates of around 4-1/2 percent and 6 percent, respectively. M1 is expected to continue to grow relatively slowly. The Chairman may call for Committee consultation if it appears to the Manager for Domestic Operations that reserve conditions during the period before the next meeting are likely to be associated with a federal funds rate persistently outside a range of 5 to 9 percent.""","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Vice President Hendricks, would you like to comment? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. HENDRICKS.', 'text': ""Our preference would be to line up fairly closely with Si Keehn's suggestion on the decision. We would go with $600 million, but would lean on the side of further tightening. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Vice President Eisenmenger. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. EISENMENGER.', 'text': 'I support you, Mr. Chairman: $600 million and a symmetric directive. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'And I think Bob Black said it: any way you look at this--whether you look at rates, at the provision of reserves, or at the behavior of the aggregates--over the course of this year, we have taken some significant steps.And I am not quite sure, as I expressed earlier, what the impact of that is going to be.But, being an old market participant, when everybody thinks the same there\'s a chance that it won\'t work out that way.Sometimes you get a little afraid of a consensus that is apparently that strong.Having said all that, I could certainly accept ""B"", with a $600 million borrowing target and symmetric language.But I have a slight preference for the position Bob Forrestal mentioned.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Vice President Hendricks, would you like to comment?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HENDRICKS.', 'text': ""Our preference would be to line up fairly closely with Si Keehn's suggestion on the decision.We would go with $600 million, but would lean on the side of further tightening.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Vice President Eisenmenger.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. EISENMENGER.', 'text': 'I support you, Mr. Chairman: $600 million and a symmetric directive.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,,utterance
230,232,19880210_517_1,VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.,"""Yes, especially if Don thinks that the numbers are coming in a little higher anyway.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': '6-1/2 percent, yes. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""Let's not argue about that. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'I would suggest, what about 6 to 7 percent? Okay? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Put it that way--yes, I feel comfortable with that. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': ""What are the numbers you're penciling in for the M growths?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I'm sorry, for the--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': 'Monetary Ms?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'In the short term?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': 'Right.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""It's the right question to ask since we have changed the long term; and it's a most interesting issue.Alternative B is basically 6-1/2 percent [M2 growth], but I would read it as somewhat lower in view of what we did with the longer term.I would read it as 6-1/4 percent growth myself.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""No, I think you'd go the other way.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': 'No, not if you\'re lowering--the old borrowing target implicit in ""B"" was $250 million, right?So--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""But I think there's enough uncertainty--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': ""You shouldn't have a little--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""Bob, there's enough uncertainty associated with the relationship that one can be comfortable with the 6-1/2 percent.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': '6-1/2 percent, yes.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""Let's not argue about that.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'I would suggest, what about 6 to 7 percent?Okay?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Put it that way--yes, I feel comfortable with that.'}]",no,,,,
231,233,19880210_584_1,VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.,"""You're calling a spade a spade.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': '""Taking account of conditions in financial markets, somewhat lesser reserve restraint or somewhat greater reserve restraint would be acceptable depending on the strength of the business expansion, indications of inflationary pressures, developments in foreign exchange markets, as well as the behavior of the monetary aggregates. The contemplated reserve conditions are expected to be consistent with growth in both M2 and M3 over the period from November through March at annual rates of 6 to 7 percent. Over the same period, growth in M1 is expected to remain relatively limited. The Chairman may call for Committee consultation if it appears to the Manager for Domestic Operations that reserve conditions during the period before the next meeting are likely to be associated with a federal funds rate persistently outside a range of""--we had 4 to 8 percent. '}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': '6-1/4 to 6-1/2 percent. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': '""The Committee agrees that the current more normal approach to open market operations remains appropriate; still sensitive conditions in financial markets and uncertainties in the economic outlook may continue to call for some flexibility in operations.""'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Anybody object to that sentence then?SEVERAL(?).No.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': '""Taking account of conditions in financial markets, somewhat lesser reserve restraint or somewhat greater reserve restraint would be acceptable depending on the strength of the business expansion, indications of inflationary pressures, developments in foreign exchange markets, as well as the behavior of the monetary aggregates.The contemplated reserve conditions are expected to be consistent with growth in both M2 and M3 over the period from November through March at annual rates of 6 to 7 percent.Over the same period, growth in M1 is expected to remain relatively limited.The Chairman may call for Committee consultation if it appears to the Manager for Domestic Operations that reserve conditions during the period before the next meeting are likely to be associated with a federal funds rate persistently outside a range of""--we had 4 to 8 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': '6-1/4 to 6-1/2 percent.'}]",no,,,,
232,234,19880329_387_17,MR. HOSKINS.,"""If we don't get that, then I think we are going to get the inflation forecast that my own staff is turning out, which is very similar to yours.""","The Fourth District is pretty much as I reported last time. Manufacturing activity is very strong. We have several firms, primarily in primary metals, that have reported that they are at capacity levels; they simply can't produce anything else. One of those firms is considering some kind of expansion at this point, because they believe the demand is going to last a lot longer than they had anticipated before. That is primarily because of the client involved. We see a reaching of capacity limits now across a broad spectrum of manufacturing activities, from glass through chemicals, at least with the firms within our District. Not everybody, though, is planning to move ahead to build plants or expand capacity; there are still a lot of people who are not quite ready to take that step. In terms of price increases, you heard me say last time that, at least at a couple of firms, primary metals--steel principally--have risen 15 percent or so. I have not heard of any new price increases since then, but that is coming out of the gate at the start of the year with a pretty hefty price increase. We are getting the same thing in chemical products now: 10 to 15 percent price increases. But they have not shown up in the national indices. In terms of the overall outlook for the country, we are very similar to the staff in terms of real growth. The composition is somewhat different: we actually have stronger PCE--as we've had for the last six months, probably--and weaker net exports. I have some concerns if you're right on exports and we're wrong. But if we're right on PCE and you are wrong, we have a problem. Given the potential for that problem, I see a resource-constraint type of problem; trying to make room to ship goods abroad with our resources requires a slowdown in the expansion of consumption. If we don't get that, then I think we are going to get the inflation forecast that my own staff is turning out, which is very similar to yours. And frankly, I find the CPI [projection] of 5 percent in the second half of the year a very distressing number to have to face, when I think that our objective, as I stated before, ought to be price stability--and by that I mean zero.","[{'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': 'What it says about the longer-term prospect for real growth, I am not altogether sure, but it makes me marginally more confident about the outlook. As several people already have commented, the really striking feature about the outlook--both the one presented in the Greenbook and the one that we have developed [at our Bank]--is the acceleration of inflation that seems to be in prospect. Obviously, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding that, as there always is. And the acceleration is not dramatic, but I certainly find it troubling. I think that perhaps that is the key aspect at this point. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': ""I, too, have heard a few scattered reports about double ordering, and I don't think there is any question that, at least at current exchange rates, a lot of businesses in our District certainly can compete with foreign producers and foreign products.As far as the national outlook is concerned, I have changed my forecast pretty much as the staff has changed theirs in the Greenbook.I have been surprised by the tenor of the incoming data on the national economy, which is generally better than I had expected.I think that does call for revising up the near-term forecast.What it says about the longer-term prospect for real growth, I am not altogether sure, but it makes me marginally more confident about the outlook.As several people already have commented, the really striking feature about the outlook--both the one presented in the Greenbook and the one that we have developed [at our Bank]--is the acceleration of inflation that seems to be in prospect.Obviously, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding that, as there always is.And the acceleration is not dramatic, but I certainly find it troubling.I think that perhaps that is the key aspect at this point.""}]",yes,no,,,
233,235,19880630_184_1,MR. JOHNSON.,"""No, he is very responsible; I respect his judgment.""","No, he is very responsible; I respect his judgment. So, on the wage front, once again I say there's nothing yet, but you do get the feeling that something is out there. At the same time, I think all of the strong good feelings going on now are a cumulative effect of the positive growth we've seen in the past. And where we go from here, I think, is going to be the lagged response to what we've been doing over the last 6 months or so. And so we've got to be careful. I do think that probably the risks are still more on the upside than the downside as well. But I think that we need to be very careful from this point on that we pay attention to the lags that are taking place in the forward-looking markets where we have been effective in my opinion.","[{'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'He is. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""That's a fast turnaround in two weeks. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""He doesn't expect his own or his associates' [wages to go up], but he's worried about the inflationary pressures emanating elsewhere with no increases in salaries or wages for his own people. That's one of the problems. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'Right, he is. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'But I think another year of accelerating prices relative to nominal wages might be a problem.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I think the wage models don't have in them the ratio of imports to domestic demand, if you're going to do it that way.Because that's clearly what's doing that.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': 'Manley, excuse me for interrupting you, but went further than that.He said there will be no inflation pressures generated by wage pressures.He made that flat statement.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""Yes, I think that's right.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Well, one thing to bear in mind is that he have been taking a big share of the business down there.Yesterday, I talked to him and he closed the conversation by saying ""I\'m getting extremely worried about inflation.""'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'He is.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""That's a fast turnaround in two weeks.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""He doesn't expect his own or his associates' [wages to go up], but he's worried about the inflationary pressures emanating elsewhere with no increases in salaries or wages for his own people.That's one of the problems.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'Right, he is.'}]",yes,no,,,
234,236,19890328_297_2,MR. JOHNSON.,"""That's all I need.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'On the Hoey survey, was that last survey taken before or after our discount rate [action]? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""I don't know. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""It's a February survey number. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""Yes, it was the last half of February, but I don't know the exact date. I know it was after that first PPI number and before the second; that I checked on. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Or is it because other proxies don't give you as good a correlation with the very present?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""Yes, I think it's sort of suspicious too.This chart is plotted from 1978 because that's when the 10-year Hoey survey started.We have done some other experiments using, for example, 1-year rates with 1-year inflation expectations.They tend to get very poor results in the 1960s and somewhat better results in the 1970s and 1980s.They also suggest that there have been changes in the natural real rate, which was a little higher in the 1960s, a little lower in the 1970s and much higher in the 1980s.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Any questions?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'Just one.On the Hoey survey, was that last survey taken before or after our discount rate [action]?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""I don't know.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""It's a February survey number.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""Yes, it was the last half of February, but I don't know the exact date.I know it was after that first PPI number and before the second; that I checked on.""}]",no,,,,
235,237,19890328_331_3,MR. FORRESTAL.,"""But even if it is not a pause, even if we are seeing some real slowing, I think the risks of recession with a firmer policy are minimal.""","Well, Mr. Chairman, I think that a somewhat firmer policy at the moment would be appropriate. My judgment is that we are, in fact, experiencing a pause and not a sustained downturn in the economy. But even if it is not a pause, even if we are seeing some real slowing, I think the risks of recession with a firmer policy are minimal. The Greenbook forecast, with which I agree, is predicated upon some tightening beginning in the second quarter--some tightening from where we are at the moment--and that does not produce a recession in 1990. Moreover, it does not produce any great improvement in the inflation rate. So, not only do I think that we don't need to back off, I think we need to continue our pressure on reserves in order to stay ahead of this inflation curve. We ought to go ahead and do the job now and make a tightening move. I wouldn't do it to any great degree but I think a funds rate around 10 percent, or whatever the equivalent borrowing is, would be appropriate. My preference would be to move now by some small degree.","[{'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""but I don't think it has been done. Too much additional tightening, I think, could negatively impact those third world nations. Finally, I'm very concerned about the dollar perhaps not performing as Ted and his people think it will--that it will stay strong and that that will prevent this export expansion that we all want which, in turn, will make it even more difficult to narrow our trade deficit. So, for all those reasons I would prefer to sit tight and have symmetrical language. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Forrestal. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""Also, as Manley said, there have been some signs of slowing.I personally would argue that there's going to be some more coming, particularly in housing and in the auto industry.I haven't heard it mentioned but I think that the thrift situation is something we should be aware of, if for no other reason than we could easily do something that would make the cost of the bailout quite a bit higher.Also, despite the Brady plan, I don't believe we've solved the third world debt problem; maybe it's comingbut I don't think it has been done.Too much additional tightening, I think, could negatively impact those third world nations.Finally, I'm very concerned about the dollar perhaps not performing as Ted and his people think it will--that it will stay strong and that that will prevent this export expansion that we all want which, in turn, will make it even more difficult to narrow our trade deficit.So, for all those reasons I would prefer to sit tight and have symmetrical language.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Forrestal.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,entailment,sentence
236,238,19891003_414_5,MR. GUFFEY.,"""I wanted that last time, as you may remember, and I've seen no accumulating evidence that suggests we are any closer to a recession at this meeting than we were at the last meeting.""","[Unintelligible] and I think most of the comments around the table about using monetary policy with respect to the dollar are right on the mark. I don't think the old adage ""you can't serve two masters"" is to be taken lightly. I think monetary policy should be devoted to domestic economic policy and not to the dollar. And further, with respect to the prescription for the period ahead, I would accept ""B"" but would want a symmetric directive. I wanted that last time, as you may remember, and I've seen no accumulating evidence that suggests we are any closer to a recession at this meeting than we were at the last meeting. As a matter of fact, in my own view, we're further away from it. As a result, I think there's a greater demand for a symmetric directive than there was last time. Therefore, I would prefer ""B"" symmetric.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I\'m very sympathetic to the point that Lee Hoskins made because I tend to focus on the longer run, as I think he does. And I think our long-run problem is inflation rather than recession. I\'m also sympathetic to the points made by those who favor symmetry just because I\'d like to send a signal to the market that we don\'t really approve of the G-7 action. But I also share Wayne\'s feeling that monetary policy has been a little tighter than most people assume and that it may be [sufficient to] hold down the inflation risk. So, I think your original formulation is probably the best one for now; I would go with ""B"" asymmetrical on the easing side. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""A whole variety of things: the dollar, price stability, making room for export growth.You could make a pretty good argument based on the discussion around this table that we should be tightening policy.I'm not prepared to make it.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""You'd get a pretty darn good argument if you did!""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Black.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I\'m very sympathetic to the point that Lee Hoskins made because I tend to focus on the longer run, as I think he does.And I think our long-run problem is inflation rather than recession.I\'m also sympathetic to the points made by those who favor symmetry just because I\'d like to send a signal to the market that we don\'t really approve of the G-7 action.But I also share Wayne\'s feeling that monetary policy has been a little tighter than most people assume and that it may be [sufficient to] hold down the inflation risk.So, I think your original formulation is probably the best one for now; I would go with ""B"" asymmetrical on the easing side.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,-5 sentences
237,239,19891114_206_3,MR. KOHN.,"""But the other factor was that policy had just eased and thinking about reversing that action after it had just been taken seemed so strange.""","I gave this some thought. There were two major factors weighing in my mind for not having an alternative C. One was that not having it in the Bluebook didn't mean the Committee couldn't vote on it at the meeting if it wanted to. But the other factor was that policy had just eased and thinking about reversing that action after it had just been taken seemed so strange. And, we are just talking about policy between now and [the next meeting]--December 17th or 18th or whenever it is. So, I made a judgment that alternative C was so unlikely to be chosen that I didn't put it in the Bluebook.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""I think it's possibly quite feasible. I don't think we're in a situation where we're in danger of somehow letting the funds rate/discount rate relationship get out of whack or losing control over where it's running now. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': ""I'd like you to talk a little about why we don't have an alternative C. It surprises me that the risks of recession clearly dominate the staff thinking relative to the risks of inflation. Another way to say that is that to me it looks like Federal Reserve policy is designed to prevent the inflation rate from falling. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""If the Committee were to decide to ease, for example, I do think that Mr. Sternlight could inject some more nonborrowed reserves, attain a funds rate that wasn't somehow out of control in relation to the discount rate, and borrowing would decline.Now, we said that under alternative A you would get a $100 million [decline in borrowing] for the 50 basis point[decline in the funds rate].I wonder whether it wouldn't be less than that, given where we are on what's probably a very steep portion of the borrowing function right now--whether it would take a very small change in borrowing to accomplish that easing in policy.I think it's possibly quite feasible.I don't think we're in a situation where we're in danger of somehow letting the funds rate/discount rate relationship get out of whack or losing control over where it's running now.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': ""I'd like you to talk a little about why we don't have an alternative C.It surprises me that the risks of recession clearly dominate the staff thinking relative to the risks of inflation.Another way to say that is that to me it looks like Federal Reserve policy is designed to prevent the inflation rate from falling.""}]",yes,yes,,contradiction,
238,240,19891219_99_5,MR. MELZER.,"""I think I know what would happen to the expectational effects and the credibility and so forth.""","I had one question, Mike. You mentioned at the beginning that five years was a relatively short time frame in the sense, I think, that if you didn't get right at it there was no way you could slow money growth by enough, quickly enough. I don't want to read too much into what you said. My question revolves around what would happen to the sacrifice ratio if the time frame were longer? I think I know what would happen to the expectational effects and the credibility and so forth. But do you have any sense of that? If you made it 10 years instead of 5, does the sacrifice ratio come down materially?","[{'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""Well, [remember] some of the pieces of 2X4s that floated around this building that came in from builders in the early '80s! I think that suggests that at a certain point the sectoral burden gets a little heavy, and they speak out even if it's by flooding [us with] 2X4s. Anyway, thank you. It was a very interesting presentation. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Melzer. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""Maybe nationally the cost was very marginal, but when two states assumed about the whole cost it looked a little heavy.Also, in looking ahead at sacrifices, I think you have to be much more micro in your analysis and think far more about sectoral differences, because it doesn't all average out.I can tell you--pardon?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""One of the things that we know we didn't treat, for example, were distributional effects.That's something you might want to take into consideration.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""I think that's something you have to look at, though.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""I think we'd have a very difficult time bringing you any very concrete quantitative results on that.That isn't to say it's not something we would want to think about.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""Well, [remember] some of the pieces of 2X4s that floated around this building that came in from builders in the early '80s!I think that suggests that at a certain point the sectoral burden gets a little heavy, and they speak out even if it's by flooding [us with] 2X4s.Anyway, thank you.It was a very interesting presentation.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Melzer.'}]",yes,no,,,
239,241,19891219_284_1,MR. LAWARE.,"""Well, we better make sure that we can do it.""","Well, we better make sure that we can do it.","[{'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': 'I think it has a nice added-- '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'Again, I don\'t want to seem like I\'m marketing that idea because I\'m not sure I believe it myself. But the fact of the matter is that there is almost this mystique about that period in the \'50s and early \'60s. People kind of look back and think about it and they say: ""Hey, wow."" So what you\'re trying to capture is not a statistical phenomenon but almost a kind of state of mind. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': ""And that's where I would come out, in part because of the concerns that John LaWare expressed.I don't think we get anywhere if we just say we're going to get therebut we're not going to tell you by when.I think we have to give something like a two-year band or something, depending on the number that we pick--saying when we want to get there, say, 1994-96 or 1995-97, or something like that.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Well, what's wrong with the 1990s, as Jerry--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': ""I don't think there's anything wrong.I think it has a nice added--""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'Again, I don\'t want to seem like I\'m marketing that idea because I\'m not sure I believe it myself.But the fact of the matter is that there is almost this mystique about that period in the \'50s and early \'60s.People kind of look back and think about it and they say: ""Hey, wow.""So what you\'re trying to capture is not a statistical phenomenon but almost a kind of state of mind.'}]",yes,no,,,
240,242,19891219_452_1,MR. BLACK.,"""If we didn't approve it, Sam would end up having to buy some dollars with some of his earnings on foreign currencies to stay below the limit.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""Jerry, it would be helpful if you'd speak up a little. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'I was saying that I think one can make a pretty good analytical case that even in the time frame of the past six weeks or so the risks have shifted in the direction in which rather than worrying about a strong dollar we could find ourselves worrying about a weak dollar. And I think that just reinforces the basic case that a number of people have stated here. So quite apart from the theology of it or the politics of it, I think the substance of it is clearly on that side. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Well, that was my point precisely. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""One is that I do think we have had a genuine measure of success in terms of the Treasury's attitudes and eagerness.That's not to say, as Alan said, that it guarantees anything for the future.But I think there has been some clear progress there.The second thing is more fundamental and that is that I think one can make a pretty good argument that even in the past six weeks the risks have shifted in a not inconsequential way in a direction--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""Jerry, it would be helpful if you'd speak up a little.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'I was saying that I think one can make a pretty good analytical case that even in the time frame of the past six weeks or so the risks have shifted in the direction in which rather than worrying about a strong dollar we could find ourselves worrying about a weak dollar.And I think that just reinforces the basic case that a number of people have stated here.So quite apart from the theology of it or the politics of it, I think the substance of it is clearly on that side.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Well, that was my point precisely.'}]",no,,,,
241,243,19901002_301_1,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""If we believe that the oil price goes up and the [unintelligible] comes down and there's no wage effect, it's a complete washout.""","If we believe that the oil price goes up and the [unintelligible] comes down and there's no wage effect, it's a complete washout. There is no way to keep the [higher] price in there unless it embodies itself in some nonprice cost, in other words wage costs, cost of capital, or something.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""What I'm trying to say is that there are two types of inflation. One is the oil price pass-through. The other is whether it embodies itself in the wage structure. It's the second that we have to be very careful to avoid. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""That's right. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""If, as I thought was stated, most of the weakness was a result of this supply shock, there's nothing we can do about that really.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Oh no, it's more weakness than that.I would say that the appropriate policy under the oil price supply shock is to do what we were doing before--to try in a sense to maintain the same money supply growth pattern we would have had prior to the oil shock, absorbing a lower level of physical activity and a slightly higher level of inflation largely because we can't avoid either of those two.I would say that the appropriate action is essentially to be where we were.It's not to be accommodative; it's not to try to stop the rise in prices, because we can't.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Well, one can do something about the inflation to some extent.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""What I'm trying to say is that there are two types of inflation.One is the oil price pass-through.The other is whether it embodies itself in the wage structure.It's the second that we have to be very careful to avoid.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""That's right.""}]",yes,no,,,
242,244,19910206_434_1,MR. MELZER.,"""I'm just saying that if it were up to me, in this environment where we're worried about getting the money growth path, I'd hate to be sitting here three months from now with a slope on that line of total reserves that was still totally flat as it has been over the last year.""","I'm just saying that if it were up to me, in this environment where we're worried about getting the money growth path, I'd hate to be sitting here three months from now with a slope on that line of total reserves that was still totally flat as it has been over the last year.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""Which, of course, we haven't seen. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""We haven't seen it because [of how] we're conducting policy. But the only fail-safe experiment--and that's what it would be--that would resolve that issue, no matter how you define the base and no matter how you measure reserves, would be the willingness of this Committee to run a policy that carries with it the risks of a 2 percent federal funds rate. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""I'm not suggesting that we use it as an operating target. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I know you're not. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""But no matter how you measure reserves or anything else, in the kind of situation we're in right now the only way that we can deal with this conundrum would be to run a policy, in effect deliberately, that is prepared to accept the risks of very large amounts of free reserves or excess reserves in the System.And by definition if there is something real to this so-called credit crunch, that approach to policy--no matter how you define the base or how you define reserves--carries with it the risks of a 2 percent federal funds rate.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""Which, of course, we haven't seen.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""We haven't seen it because [of how] we're conducting policy.But the only fail-safe experiment--and that's what it would be--that would resolve that issue, no matter how you define the base and no matter how you measure reserves, would be the willingness of this Committee to run a policy that carries with it the risks of a 2 percent federal funds rate.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""I'm not suggesting that we use it as an operating target.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I know you're not.""}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,
243,245,19910206_435_1,VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.,"""That's part of the reason why I made the suggestion about trying to get some reserves out through the discount window in a way in which Peter could do a pretty good job of protecting against--""",,"[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""We haven't seen it because [of how] we're conducting policy. But the only fail-safe experiment--and that's what it would be--that would resolve that issue, no matter how you define the base and no matter how you measure reserves, would be the willingness of this Committee to run a policy that carries with it the risks of a 2 percent federal funds rate. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""I'm not suggesting that we use it as an operating target. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I know you're not. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""I'm just saying that if it were up to me, in this environment where we're worried about getting the money growth path, I'd hate to be sitting here three months from now with a slope on that line of total reserves that was still totally flat as it has been over the last year. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'And by definition if there is something real to this so-called credit crunch, that approach to policy--no matter how you define the base or how you define reserves--carries with it the risks of a 2 percent federal funds rate.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""Which, of course, we haven't seen.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""We haven't seen it because [of how] we're conducting policy.But the only fail-safe experiment--and that's what it would be--that would resolve that issue, no matter how you define the base and no matter how you measure reserves, would be the willingness of this Committee to run a policy that carries with it the risks of a 2 percent federal funds rate.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""I'm not suggesting that we use it as an operating target.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I know you're not.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""I'm just saying that if it were up to me, in this environment where we're worried about getting the money growth path, I'd hate to be sitting here three months from now with a slope on that line of total reserves that was still totally flat as it has been over the last year.""}]",no,,,,
244,246,19910703_189_1,MR. HOSKINS.,"""The District isn't showing anything much different from what anybody else's District seems to be showing, at least from what I've heard here.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoskins. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I wanted to come here today also and congratulate Mike by confirming that the recovery started in the quarter in which he called it. However, I was not able to get hold of Mr. Smuckers to get my apple butter index and come down here and report. And that's unfortunate; that index is really reliable. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'Mike had two quarters! '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""That's now beginning to spill through to some other sectors of the economy.GE in Louisville has called back 1,000 employees because of what they see going on in homebuilding.As far as banking conditions go, if you compare the numbers in the first quarter to the first quarter a year ago, it's really hard to detect that there has been any change.There's a very slight deterioration in return on equity and in nonperforming loans, but it's almost indistinguishable.So, banking conditions in the District are still very good.Despite that, and even though the banks are in a position to lend, we're seeing very moderate credit growth, which I think probably reflects a weakness in demand.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoskins.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I wanted to come here today also and congratulate Mike by confirming that the recovery started in the quarter in which he called it.However, I was not able to get hold of Mr. Smuckers to get my apple butter index and come down here and report.And that's unfortunate; that index is really reliable.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'Mike had two quarters!'}]",no,,,,
245,247,19920701_266_8,MR. MULLINS.,"""The difficulty I see--and the reason I would agree with your proposal--is that it's simply difficult to send a clear signal in the current environment with the context of a distorted M2; it's difficult to separate the policy target from the questions of distortions of M2.""","I would support your proposal. I do think there's a case for cutting [the range] a half point in 1993. It seems to me that it's simply time to do so in the normal rhythm of things. It was not unusual to skip last year. In the summer of '88 the Committee cut the ranges for the following year, skipped '89, cut in '90, and skipped '91. The difficulty is that it's '92 now and in the normal pattern it would be time to move. It would put the market on notice, independent of federal funds rate moves and other policy moves. The difficulty I see--and the reason I would agree with your proposal--is that it's simply difficult to send a clear signal in the current environment with the context of a distorted M2; it's difficult to separate the policy target from the questions of distortions of M2. What we lose is that we muddle the signal. I think there's no way to avoid the suspicion that we're moving the target down in part because M2 is weak. And I think we would have a better signal of long-term policy and our targets after this is better understood. It's unfortunate because we are moving up to a period where we have the capacity for reassessment of that inflation premium that Governor Angell talked about. And I am concerned when I look at what the market expects later this year and next year: They expect rates to go up. By setting the fed funds rates we'll get precious little market information on when to do that. Money hasn't been a reliable signal. So, I am a bit concerned that we'll find ourselves following the market up, lagging, and chasing credibility. And one way to try to get ahead of it is to put the market on notice and send the signal early. I think we'll have a much clearer picture in the months ahead; and maybe we will not have to wait until February because I tend to think that much of this may be transitory. We'll see how the time deposit refugees feel if the stock market gets a little cool here! I do expect the yield curve to flatten in at least two ways. And I think the de-leveraging is running its course. It is true that we have these higher costs of intermediation which have already given the banks all-time record profits in the first quarter. So, they seem not to be suffering too much. Therefore, I think there is a case for cutting the ranges at this time. But the difficulty is that we would lose the signal in this environment, so I would support your proposal.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""We are working hard to reformulate the guidelines to policy [to foster] new understanding when that's possible to do. I'm not sure when it will be possible to do, which is the only other point I would like to make. I think we have to discipline ourselves and probably educate the Congress and the public to the fact that it may take some time before it's possible to do that again. It may be a while before conditions are sufficiently stable for us to have some confidence that we understand where we are and for things to have settled down so we are able to reformulate our basic guiding stars. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Mullins. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': 'It would be a mistake if we were to try to bluff our way through and say that we know more than we know or alternatively, at the other end of the spectrum, if we were to stick our head in the sand and say: ""Never mind, we are still going to fly on the same old instruments.""I don\'t think either of those courses would be credible.The key to credibility and integrity here is to be candid about this situation.We are working hard to reformulate the guidelines to policy [to foster] new understanding when that\'s possible to do.I\'m not sure when it will be possible to do, which is the only other point I would like to make.I think we have to discipline ourselves and probably educate the Congress and the public to the fact that it may take some time before it\'s possible to do that again.It may be a while before conditions are sufficiently stable for us to have some confidence that we understand where we are and for things to have settled down so we are able to reformulate our basic guiding stars.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Mullins.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,utterance
246,248,19920818_202_5,MR. JORDAN.,"""I would be with John LaWare on preferring symmetric language at this point because I think things are in motion except--and this is not a policy issue but a communications issue--if we went with symmetric now, when that is released in the middle of October after the next meeting I would expect that the headlines would read that the Committee had tightened.""","I feel a lot more comfortable with several [recent] developments: the rebound in July in reserve growth, in the monetary base, and in Ml, whereas everything was negative in June. And I would want to see that--especially [the growth in] reserves--continue to be positive. I wouldn't want foreign operations to show up and drain reserves. Partial analysis, of course, [indicates that] they do, but I would hope that would be offset, or sterilized, consciously or not either way. I would be with John LaWare on preferring symmetric language at this point because I think things are in motion except--and this is not a policy issue but a communications issue--if we went with symmetric now, when that is released in the middle of October after the next meeting I would expect that the headlines would read that the Committee had tightened. And that is enough to dissuade me from changing the directive even though my preference would be to do so.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I agree with Bob Forrestal. I would prefer to ease now in the direction of ""A"" but certainly find ""B"" with asymmetric language acceptable. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': '""B"" asymmetric. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Jordan. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': ""However, it does seem to me that we've had considerable slippage in economic activity from the first quarter.I see very few signs or areas of strength that will give us any forward momentum here.I ask myself the question, first of all: What good would easing do at this point?It's questionableI suppose.But on the other hand, it may help, and I don't see any substantial risks; in fact, I see very little risk in moving.So, I would prefer to make a move now.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I think the risk in question is how much ammunition we have left.That's the only risk I see.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': 'Well, we still have 2 percentage points to 0.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""That's right and we may need it.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': 'We may need it.Well, I think I would prefer to shoot the bullet now with alternative A.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Okay.President Keehn.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I agree with Bob Forrestal.I would prefer to ease now in the direction of ""A"" but certainly find ""B"" with asymmetric language acceptable.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': '""B"" asymmetric.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Jordan.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,utterance
247,249,19930203_250_2,MR. MELZER.,"""I think some reduction in the M2 range is important.""","I had some similar thoughts, but I would favor alternative II, though I could certainly live with what you have suggested. I think some reduction in the M2 range is important. I don't think one can emphasize too much this credibility point that you made and [the need to avoid] any perception whatsoever that we're caving in to political pressures. It's not just a question of the Fed's credibility as an institution. I think it's very important to U.S. economic policy right now in general that we guard that credibility. I have suggestions similar to Bob's with respect to things that could be said. There is the technical issue. I think the way to deal with Bob's point on inflation may simply be to say something along the lines of: ""Just recognize the progress that has been made in bringing inflation down."" That in a sense is a technical argument, too, that ought to be recognized in the ranges as a technical point without any implications with respect to rattling the saber. As to the future, I think Bob's point on controllability is a good one, as is what you said about controllability; it's something I've agreed with for a long time. I think the value of M2 when it was behaving was never as a target but as an indicator of what was going on in nominal GDP and not something that we could influence. I guess that raises another possibility in terms of things you might say, a la Steve Axilrod's suggestion, but it might not be a bad idea to point out at this time that we need to look at a broad range of things: other monetary indicators, the behavior of the economy, etc. It's just a good time to make the point that we're required to set these--you've made this point before--but we look at a broad range of indicators in making policy decisions. When you said ""forget the whole thing,"" I trust what you were talking about was that at this point in time, given the uncertainties, it would be a mistake if we as the central bank backed away in a long-term sense from trying to understand the behavior of money and having money in some sort of--","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""It seems to me it would be desirable to make 3 points in the testimony. The first is the one you emphasized, that this is a technical adjustment designed to accommodate a decline in money demand and, therefore, it wouldn't be expected to produce lower growth in 1993. The other thing that might be worth noting is that the adjustment is really consistent with our prior inflation goals and doesn't represent any attempt on our part to increase the pace of disinflation. And, finally, we all have been talking about the uncertainties associated with this whole exercise, and I think it may be well just to confront very directly the possibility that M2 and M3 could undershoot even this adjusted target; I'd make that point clear. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Melzer. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': ""So, I would say that if we want to avoid what Jerry Corrigan was afraid of, and that is an outcome outside our range of expectations, we'd want to have a range of 2-1/2 to 5-1/2 percent.That's just to throw another option on the table.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': 'A narrower band?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'A narrower band.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I would support the recommendation as you have made it.It seems to me it would be desirable to make 3 points in the testimony.The first is the one you emphasized, that this is a technical adjustment designed to accommodate a decline in money demand and, therefore, it wouldn't be expected to produce lower growth in 1993.The other thing that might be worth noting is that the adjustment is really consistent with our prior inflation goals and doesn't represent any attempt on our part to increase the pace of disinflation.And, finally, we all have been talking about the uncertainties associated with this whole exercise, and I think it may be well just to confront very directly the possibility that M2 and M3 could undershoot even this adjusted target; I'd make that point clear.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Melzer.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,entailment,sentence
248,250,19930203_315_12,MR. ANGELL.,"""I don't have the courage to vote to tighten at this point, Mr. Chairman, because I'm hopeful that this will get reversed.""","Mr. Chairman, I agree with your prescription. I am very tempted, of course, to believe that we may be falling behind in regard to maintaining price level targeting by targeting the fed funds rate at 3 percent. I think all of us know the difficulty of targeting M2; we've all discussed that. Certainly, there's difficulty in targeting the fed funds rate. We know that's really no way to run monetary policy under changing conditions. Also, targeting nominal GDP poses real political dangers for us because it's just so difficult to go before the Congress and explain why we like 5-1/2 percent nominal GDP better than 6-1/2 percent when there's clearly a relationship between GDP and the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate at 6-1/2 percent GDP would be more desirable than the one at 5-1/2 percent. So, with Humphrey-Hawkins suggestions that we [emphasize] price stability as a second to employment and our knowledge that employment benefits from improvement in the inflation outlook, I'm inclined to believe that we ought to be thinking about tightening at this stage. But I just don't have the stomach for doing it, Mr. Chairman; I lack the courage to be what I think would be seen as somewhat rash. And it was that prediction of lack of courage on my part and your part that caused me some meetings ago to suggest that at some point in time we might find ourselves with the need for a very large-scale move. If you would turn to Chart 6 in the Financial Indicators package that Don has provided as he always does--I was mistaken in thinking the charts were missing from the other document because they're always in this document--you will see on that bottom chart for all commodities ex-food and ex-oil a price move that is somewhat of a preliminary indication of what happened at the end of 1982 and what happened in 1987. I don't have the courage to vote to tighten at this point, Mr. Chairman, because I'm hopeful that this will get reversed. And the price of gold being--","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""And hopefully this recovery will lose all of its head wind, if I may use that phrase that I've got myself involved in. But as I said earlier, I think that policy is beginning to look better by the day in retrospect. And I find it hard to think of any reason why we would want to [change the stance of policy] over the next 6-week period. But if somebody has some great new insight, I would be most interested in hearing it. Governor Angell. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""It's a very small part, obviously, of the gross domestic product, but it is a very large part of the collateral for the financial intermediary system and a horrendous part of the nonperforming loans which are particularly important because intermediaries are very highly leveraged.And if this doesn't go away for a number of years--I can't see how it will--at least we can expect to find a means by which we can get some liquidity into this market.Even if it happens that the prices are 50 cents on the dollar, I think we might--while we may not get a lot of construction--very well begin finally to get some lending in the small- to medium-size businesses.The employment issue might be taking hold.And hopefully this recovery will lose all of its head wind, if I may use that phrase that I've got myself involved in.But as I said earlier, I think that policy is beginning to look better by the day in retrospect.And I find it hard to think of any reason why we would want to [change the stance of policy] over the next 6-week period.But if somebody has some great new insight, I would be most interested in hearing it.Governor Angell.""}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,sentence
249,251,19930323_25_5,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""But I personally don't feel comfortable with anything new in here.""","I think you're raising a separate issue, which ought to stand on its own merits, and that is whether we look good or bad. As I understand the proposal that Governor Mullins and his subcommittee are making, it is to consolidate already existing documents and in effect not to create anything new. It's the new that I think we want to avoid in this particular context. And as far as I'm concerned, the issue being raised should be on the table at some point and maybe we ought to discuss it; it really should be in the context of the subcommittee's work. But I personally don't feel comfortable with anything new in here. In fact, the message is precisely to make the point that there is nothing new, not that we're trying to improve this.","[{'speaker': 'MS. PHILLIPS.', 'text': ""I'd like to support Governor Kelley on this. I thought the one-page summary was probably one of the more positive new things coming out of this. A lot of these news services will extract from the summary; and if we give them what we'd like them to extract, I think we have a better chance of there being a fairer reading of the minutes. So, I support Mike's contingent on this. And like it or not, we are in a sound-bite, concise summary kind of environment. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""And it can be done in a way that presents the FOMC's story in a light that we approve of as opposed to relying on some reporter who may not understand what he's reading and who plows through the policy record and picks out a phrase here and there that suits his purpose and presents the Committee in an erroneous light.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Given the full policy record, isn't he inclined to do that anyway?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""He may be, but if on the front of the release there is an executive summary, I think that will tend to be what gets picked up by a very large percentage of those who give it any attention at all.That's importantand I think it's a positive.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. PHILLIPS.', 'text': ""I'd like to support Governor Kelley on this.I thought the one-page summary was probably one of the more positive new things coming out of this.A lot of these news services will extract from the summary; and if we give them what we'd like them to extract, I think we have a better chance of there being a fairer reading of the minutes.So, I support Mike's contingent on this.And like it or not, we are in a sound-bite, concise summary kind of environment.""}]",yes,no,,,
250,252,19930707_168_1,MR. PRELL.,"""Certainly, this would be the case going back several years before this, but I don't have data going back much earlier.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Yes, we've used the ECI here. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': ""And this has been falling like that since the '70s? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'Well, undoubtedly, you [have to] go back to a period when interest rates were moving sharply enough to have significantly moved this. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The computer prices are falling now at rates that are very large; and when you consider the size of the computer industry itself there is [unintelligible] effect [unintelligible] earlier period. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'Yes, we can provide you with a longer time series.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'Is this an unusual amount of change?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""The computer prices have been falling fast for so long that if we stretched this back--at least going back to the '70s--I think we'd probably still have a pretty steep drop.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'But the rates have changed.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'Yes, it may be more in recent years.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': ""If you're talking about computer prices, okay.But when you use cost of capital, there are some tax effects and interest rates and weighted cost of equity and debt and things like that in there.And the compensation rate is something like an hourly wage rate?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Yes, we've used the ECI here.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': ""And this has been falling like that since the '70s?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'Well, undoubtedly, you [have to] go back to a period when interest rates were moving sharply enough to have significantly moved this.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The computer prices are falling now at rates that are very large; and when you consider the size of the computer industry itself there is [unintelligible] effect[unintelligible] earlier period.'}]",no,,,,
251,253,19940204_206_9,MR. KELLEY.,"""Number one is that consumer debt seems to be accelerating, and this is at a time when the ratio of consumer debt to worth is still at an all-time high.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""The CRB futures price index is up by nearly 13 percent from its level a year ago despite a very significant decline in energy prices. An even sharper increase is seen in the Board's experimental commodity price index when the food and crude oil components are omitted. In addition, long-term interest rates have risen somewhat from their October 1993 lows. In our view, measured either by the growth rates of M1 and reserves or the ex post real federal funds rate, the stance of monetary policy has been very expansionary for about the last three years, and we weigh this sustained stance of monetary policy heavily in making our forecast of longer-run inflation trends. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""We project that the CPI will move up sharply in 1994 and will be even higher in 1995.Indeed, there may be some early warning signs that the economy's disinflationary course has already come to an end.When its volatile food and energy components are removed, the CPI rose at a 3.4 percent rate during the last three months of 1993, up significantly from the 2.4 percent rate of increase during the previous six months.The CRB futures price index is up by nearly 13 percent from its level a year ago despite a very significant decline in energy prices.An even sharper increase is seen in the Board's experimental commodity price index when the food and crude oil components are omitted.In addition, long-term interest rates have risen somewhat from their October 1993 lows.In our view, measured either by the growth rates of M1 and reserves or the ex post real federal funds rate, the stance of monetary policy has been very expansionary for about the last three years, and we weigh this sustained stance of monetary policy heavily in making our forecast of longer-run inflation trends.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley.'}]",no,,,,
252,254,19940706_450_4,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""If the CPI came in at 0, we probably wouldn't move.""","Let me be very specific using Jerry Jordan's CPI as the model. Let us assume our normal expected CPI just for the sake of argument was .3 percent and we were asymmetric toward tightening. If the CPI came in at 0, we probably wouldn't move. If it came in at .6 percent, we would tighten.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': '[Laughter] '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""As I said in my briefing, the use of asymmetry in the past has been an expression of the Committee's disposition about how it would like to react to incoming data. If you think the risks are more on one side than on the other and if for example you would like to react to stronger data before you reacted to weaker data, asymmetry would send a signal to the Chairman that when the data come in a bit to the stronger side, or the data don't suggest a weakening that you would like, he should give serious consideration to a firming move, acting on behalf of the FOMC, or to having a conference call. ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Fine-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""It's sort of leaning to one side in reacting to incoming data. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""We don't have a specific formulation.Asymmetry merely means a general sense of the Committee's disposition or the direction of our bias.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'How long we should expect you to wait before making a change?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""No, I have tried to articulate this and I have been much too specific, so I'll call on Don Kohn.[Laughter]""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""As I said in my briefing, the use of asymmetry in the past has been an expression of the Committee's disposition about how it would like to react to incoming data.If you think the risks are more on one side than on the other and if for example you would like to react to stronger data before you reacted to weaker data, asymmetry would send a signal to the Chairman that when the data come in a bit to the stronger side, or the data don't suggest a weakening that you would like, he should give serious consideration to a firming move, acting on behalf of the FOMC, or to having a conference call.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Fine--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""It's sort of leaning to one side in reacting to incoming data.""}]",yes,yes,,,
253,255,19940927_143_12,MR. HOENIG.,"""Their margins are coming under pressure and how much more they can be squeezed is on their minds.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'What we have been doing on the funds rate does not look to me like either too low a level or one that came up too slowly. But I have problems with what happens between the 1-year and the 2-year maturities. Why is the 1-year forward rate for the 1-year maturity 7-1/2 percent? It leaves me in a position of thinking that we should not totally neglect the information that is coming from reserves, money, and credit and debt measures that say that right now we are in a good position; give it a little more time. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoenig. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': ""I would have expected that if moving up to the 4-3/4 percent level from the 3 percent level in the funds rate was behind the curve, then we would have seen symptoms of that in reserves, central bank money, demand deposits, other things suggesting that there was something in the marketplace moving equilibrium interest rates up much faster than we were moving.I don't see that out there.As implied in my question earlier to Joan, the yield curve may play a part in that.Why does the yield curve from three months out to a year look okay?What we have been doing on the funds rate does not look to me like either too low a level or one that came up too slowly.But I have problems with what happens between the 1-year and the 2-year maturities.Why is the 1-year forward rate for the 1-year maturity 7-1/2 percent?It leaves me in a position of thinking that we should not totally neglect the information that is coming from reserves, money, and credit and debt measures that say that right now we are in a good position; give it a little more time.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoenig.'}]",no,,,,
254,256,19950201_937_19,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""But now that issue is moot because we have a Treasury take-out.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The question is, did we realistically have the option of saying, ""this is a slippery-slope issue and we would prefer not to be involved."" The answer is that it would have been \'irresponsible for us not to get involved. The reason I went up to the Hill at one point to speak on this issue to two-thirds of the Senate and about one-third of the House, all in one room, is that if I did not do it, it would not get done. That\'s because no one there had any knowledge of this except people in Treasury who are not-- '}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Have no standing or are from a different political party. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The crucial thing that we have to do, no matter how we get involved in this, is to review Mexico\'s forthcoming plan.We were fully aware when this began that we were dealing with a serious problem.We knew that if we did not get involved, there were going to be some very serious negative responses and I am not sure how this whole thing would ultimately have come out.But we also knew that there is a slippery slope here.The question is, did we realistically have the option of saying, ""this is a slippery-slope issue and we would prefer not to be involved.""The answer is that it would have been \'irresponsible for us not to get involved.The reason I went up to the Hill at one point to speak on this issue to two-thirds of the Senate and about one-third of the House, all in one room, is that if I did not do it, it would not get done.That\'s because no one there had any knowledge of this except people in Treasury who are not--'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Have no standing or are from a different political party.'}]",no,,,,
255,257,19950328_137_1,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""That sounds like a precedent to me!""",That sounds like a precedent to me! [Laughter],"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Whatever happened to the chart presentation? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""We didn't have it in February. It's an open issue for July. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""We don't have it today? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'No. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'The mark is at extraordinary highs on a trade-weighted basis.The mark clearly is strong--however defined--against us, against Europe, against everybody.There also is a problem of an ever appreciating yen.Now, something may break that at some point, but until it does I think there are problems in each corner; each leg of this stool has its own problem.And that in my view is how we get the historic lows or historic highs--when there is something that is pushing the exchange rate on both sides in the same direction.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Further questions for Peter?If not, would somebody like to move approval of the actions of the foreign Desk?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'So move.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Is there a second?'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Second.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Without objection.The domestic Desk transactions?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'So move.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Second?'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Second.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Without objection.Let's now move on to what used to be called the Chart Show.Whatever happened to the chart presentation?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""We didn't have it in February.It's an open issue for July.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""We don't have it today?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'No.'}]",yes,no,,,
256,258,19950706_134_1,MS. JOHNSON.,"""I did not mean to suggest any pejorative notion by using the word ""deflation.""""","I did not mean to suggest any pejorative notion by using the word ""deflation."" I meant it literally as just that the rate of change of certain prices was negative. Now, it is certainly true that it is happening in the goods sector because to some degree what you described has happened. That is, we have opened up--a little maybe--Japanese markets to world trade. For example, if you use Japanese national income account data in real terms, the share of imports to GDP has risen sharply. In that sense, imported goods and the competitive pressures that they can apply through market phenomena are having an effect of the sort you might want. I'm not so sure that I see that as much of an explanation for why land prices have been falling and are still falling. Nor do I see it really as an explanation for the stock market behavior. So, the asset price story, which had its own special factors on the up side in the late 1980s--a speculative bubble kind of story, fueled perhaps by what in retrospect seems like a too easy monetary policy--has a different story on the down side as well. I am not particularly alarmed that Japanese goods prices are responding to competitive pressures from the outside world. I would think that it might be easier on all concerned if it happened through an end to the upward pressures on the yen rather than through falling prices of Japanese goods. But I am not aware of any rigidity stories, for example, that suggest that because prices have some downward rigidity all sorts of problems are being created. I am merely suggesting that in that environment Japanese monetary policy looks to be a bit tight, given what we know about capacity utilization, the behavior of wages, and what is happening to asset prices. All the pieces fit together to suggest that the stance of monetary policy could be eased a bit in an effort to get that economy growing again.","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': ""The price of these things, converted into the equivalent of some other currency, has to fall either by a depreciation of the yen or by declines in absolute yen prices. Whether it is proper to think about that as deflation or not, I don't know. What else could happen? If the yen is not going to fall in value on the exchange market, then our economics would tell us that asset prices and goods prices had to move toward world levels. How else could this adjustment possibly be made? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'We would say ""Yes and try to get it.""All the stocks listed on the Nikkei, if aggregated, would have exceeded the present value of GDP for the world.We thought it probably wasn\'t true.Or at that time a cantaloupe cost 70 U.S. dollars.If you think during the course of the decade that you are going to remove the impediments to the workings of the market so that the law of one price starts to operate in tradeable goods and asset prices and things like that, then one of two things has to happen.The price of these things, converted into the equivalent of some other currency, has to fall either by a depreciation of the yen or by declines in absolute yen prices.Whether it is proper to think about that as deflation or not, I don\'t know.What else could happen?If the yen is not going to fall in value on the exchange market, then our economics would tell us that asset prices and goods prices had to move toward world levels.How else could this adjustment possibly be made?'}]",no,,,,
257,259,19950706_292_5,MS. YELLEN.,"""I think we are dealing with an imperfect law that asks us to communicate our objectives in an imperfect way.""","I would like to associate myself with Governor Lindsey's comments. I would favor alternative III for 1995 [Laughter] and alternative II for 1996. I certainly understand the sentiments that you expressed, Mr. Chairman. This is not the most important decision we are going to make this morning. I think we are dealing with an imperfect law that asks us to communicate our objectives in an imperfect way. I certainly understand why you don't want the ranges to be the focus of your Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, and I understand that they can be confusing. Nevertheless, at the end of the day it seems to me that this is the law of the land and we ought to do the best we can to live with it and to have the forecasts that we put forward be ones that are defensible. If you are asked why we have selected these monetary targets, I hope you would be prepared to answer. Then I ask myself how you would go about answering. If you were to say that we are assuming a continuing upward trend in M2 velocity and if that were a defensible assumption, that would be fine. That would imply, in turn, real objectives that I would find perfectly appropriate. But if you were pushed that far, as I imagine you won't be, and if you were not prepared to say that an upward trend in M2 velocity is our underlying assumption, then you in effect would be communicating on behalf of this Committee objectives which I would not regard as my objectives and I don't think they are the objectives of this Committee. After Bob Parry said that our nominal GDP forecasts don't represent our objectives, I reread the instructions. They said the projections for both 1995 and 1996 should be based on what in our judgment would be an appropriate monetary policy. So, I thought that was the instruction under which we were to be operating.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MCTEER.', 'text': 'I think it would be important for us to give Senator Mack the impression that we are eager to work with him on this--not the impression that he is dragging us along kicking and screaming. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'No, and we are trying specifically to do that. Where we think he has a view that would be very difficult to implement, we have been trying to communicate that opinion. Does anybody else want to comment? Governor Yellen. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'I wanted to talk to them about it before sending the letter over.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'A letter will be going out![Laughter] I said in the letter that I was not speaking for the Board or the FOMC but was expressing my own views on certain issues.But I must say that I tried, as I formulated my letter, to take into consideration a number of the views that I have heard around this table.I said that my thinking was still in a very preliminary stage, but it might be useful, when we get that letter out, to circulate it to the Committee.The letter might be useful as a vehicle to start getting your responses.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MCTEER.', 'text': 'I think it would be important for us to give Senator Mack the impression that we are eager to work with him on this--not the impression that he is dragging us along kicking and screaming.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'No, and we are trying specifically to do that.Where we think he has a view that would be very difficult to implement, we have been trying to communicate that opinion.Does anybody else want to comment?Governor Yellen.'}]",yes,no,,,
258,260,19960131_261_14,MR. PARRY.,"""I see no reason to change now.""","Mr. Chairman, I would not favor reducing the federal funds rate. I would refer to President Boehne's comment about our deeds speaking more loudly than our words. If you look at the members' economic projections for 1996, we are saying in effect that we are at potential. The midpoint of the central tendency of the Committee members' forecasts indicates that the economy is going to grow 2.1 percent in 1996. The CPI appears to have increased 2.7 percent in 1995, and the central tendency of the members' forecasts has a midpoint of 2.8 percent. The unemployment rate is equal to or slightly below the natural rate and is expected to be there at the end of the year. It seems to me that the Committee's forecasts speak very loudly and are in conflict with reducing rates at this time. I realize that we are in a period where it appears that the economy has some weaknesses. The staff forecast calls for 0.8 percent GDP growth in the current quarter. The question is whether or not that slower rate will be temporary. If it's temporary, then policy ought not be changed. We can't make that determination right now. We are disadvantaged by a whole host of things including a lack of data and insufficient time to model the new information. I see no reason to change now. It would seem to be the prudent thing, in fact the opportune thing, to wait a few weeks before we make a judgment.","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'For now, I am comfortable with the idea that it is appropriate to move the funds rate down and see whether or not inflation in fact comes in at a lower rate. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Vice Chairman. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I support the recommendation of alternative A, symmetric, for the reasons that you gave. I also found Jerry Jordan's intervention just now quite convincing as well. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'If I thought that the Greenbook/Bluebook projections were correct about a 5-1/2 percent funds rate producing a 3 percent inflation rate out through 1997, I would have to be arguing for raising the funds rate.The only way I can support reducing the funds rate is to be consistent and say that I don\'t believe those projections.I have to believe that we are in an environment where the inflation rate will come in lower than is indicated by either the central tendency of the Committee members\' forecasts or the Bluebook/Greenbook projections.If that turns out to be wrong, then I will be out in front saying, ""Let\'s get the funds rate back up because we simply were wrong.""For now, I am comfortable with the idea that it is appropriate to move the funds rate down and see whether or not inflation in fact comes in at a lower rate.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Vice Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I support the recommendation of alternative A, symmetric, for the reasons that you gave.I also found Jerry Jordan's intervention just now quite convincing as well.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
259,261,19960131_269_4,MR. STERN.,"""There may be an opportunity here, were we to do nothing, to do a bit better on inflation.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The current situation gives me some considerable pause. As I try to look at the real interest rate situation, Charts 4 and 5 in the ""Financial Indicators"" package don't suggest to me that real rates are particularly high, at least relative to history. There may be an opportunity here, were we to do nothing, to do a bit better on inflation. The mechanism that I have in mind would be through a stronger dollar than we now anticipate and what that would mean for inflation--recognizing, of course, that we can't really forecast exchange rates. They are far more a hope than a certainty. On the other side of this coin, I am certainly convinced that we cannot halt turning points in the economy, or at least I can't. As I said before, I am pretty convinced that the current quarter and perhaps the next quarter will be rather soggy based on inventory considerations and the time it will take to work through the inventory adjustments. Moreover, something that looks soggy could turn out to be something worse. The bottom line is that in this environment, and recognizing that I can't halt turning points, I find your insurance argument persuasive and I would go along with a 1/4 point reduction in the federal funds rate at this time.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': ""All those things incline me to caution. Sometimes I think inertia can be a good thing, and I am feeling the need for a lot of it at this point. I hear Jerry Jordan's point, but I do think it needs to be said that it may be more difficult this year than in most other years to move the funds rate back up later if things don't go the way we want them to. We are going to get a lot of new information that hopefully will clarify the economic situation in the fairly near future, and I think we ought to look at it before we move. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': ""Beyond what she said, it's not at all clear to me yet how much of a real deceleration in activity is actually occurring.We have bad weather, government shutdowns, and structural changes in the retail sector all fogging up, in my view, the meaning of much of the recent information.Also, we have a lack of headroom in the economy, as I think many would agree, and at least some signs of a firming of wages.All those things incline me to caution.Sometimes I think inertia can be a good thing, and I am feeling the need for a lot of it at this point.I hear Jerry Jordan's point, but I do think it needs to be said that it may be more difficult this year than in most other years to move the funds rate back up later if things don't go the way we want them to.We are going to get a lot of new information that hopefully will clarify the economic situation in the fairly near future, and I think we ought to look at it before we move.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
260,262,19960521_140_13,MR. BOEHNE.,"""On balance, I prefer symmetry mainly because I can't imagine that you, Mr. Chairman, would make a decision to move toward tightening in this particular environment without a consultation with the Committee.""","Several issues have been talked about around the table, and in the end people have to make their own judgments. With regard to the issue about the economy and the structure of the economy, most of the models, which I think the Greenbook reflects, clearly indicate that we should have had accelerating inflation over the last couple of years and are likely to have accelerating inflation going forward. But the actual experience in the last couple of years has not been particularly consistent with forecasts based on those models. So, our dilemma really is one of being open-minded to the possibility that there are some structural changes going on versus getting caught up in wishful thinking because tightening policy is always more difficult than easing. It is easy to fall into the trap of finding excuses for not tightening, but my sense is that there is enough evidence over the last year or so to cause us to be more open-minded about the prospect that the economy may indeed be less prone to inflation. I think there is something to that hypothesis, but we have to be very careful about getting carried away with it. On the stance of policy, if the federal funds rate were a couple of percentage points lower or even a percentage point lower, I would be more persuaded that now is the time to act. But I don't know whether current policy is a little restrictive or a little stimulative. My sense is that it is probably broadly neutral and therefore that we are fairly close to wherever we need to go. Based on those reasons, not out of any overwhelming conviction that I am right but after trying to weigh the evidence and making judgments that are a matter of both logic and intuition, I come down on the side of no change at this meeting, alternative B. On the issue of symmetry or no symmetry, I could support either. I don't have strong feelings. On balance, I prefer symmetry mainly because I can't imagine that you, Mr. Chairman, would make a decision to move toward tightening in this particular environment without a consultation with the Committee. Therefore, I think the operational value of asymmetry in these circumstances is essentially worthless. Looking ahead, since we do have a lag on releasing the minutes, I think asymmetry could convey the wrong impression of where we are when the minutes are made public six weeks from now. I would prefer to keep our policy options very open, debate policy again in July, and make a judgment then without having the added issue of an asymmetrical directive at this meeting exert any influence on that decision. So, I come out with ""B,"" symmetric.","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'The way I thought about it was that, on the basis of the information we were getting, the equilibrium real funds rate appeared to have moved down from what I felt was an appropriate level, and to avoid a de facto tightening of policy, the nominal funds rate needed to come down from the 5-1/2 percent level where it had been since November 1995. I think Don Kohn is correct in his assessment that more recent developments have reversed that decline in the real funds rate, and had I anticipated those developments, I would not have supported the 1/4 point reduction on January 31. But I also am not persuaded that this strength in the economy is likely to be enduring enough that we need to move the funds rate back up to where it was before January 31. So, I support a no-change, symmetric directive, though with considerable concern about how it will be interpreted. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': ""I didn't view the reduction in the federal funds rate on January 31 as an insurance policy against the downside risks in the real economy.The way I thought about it was that, on the basis of the information we were getting, the equilibrium real funds rate appeared to have moved down from what I felt was an appropriate level, and to avoid a de facto tightening of policy, the nominal funds rate needed to come down from the 5-1/2 percent level where it had been since November 1995.I think Don Kohn is correct in his assessment that more recent developments have reversed that decline in the real funds rate, and had I anticipated those developments, I would not have supported the 1/4 point reduction on January 31.But I also am not persuaded that this strength in the economy is likely to be enduring enough that we need to move the funds rate back up to where it was before January 31.So, I support a no-change, symmetric directive, though with considerable concern about how it will be interpreted.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,utterance
261,263,19960703_393_8,MS. PHILLIPS.,"""Like Governor Meyer, I am uncomfortable with the current ranges, but I do not want to use them as a monetary policy signal.""","It is. certainly premature to restore M2 and M3 to their full status as policy indicators, but I do think that we should recognize that they are performing a bit better in terms of velocity and GDP growth. I thought David Lindsey's chart presentation was extremely useful, and I particularly liked the first chart that shows the upward migration in M2 velocity. I thought that was very helpful. But it also points out that we do not yet have a lot of dots along that green line for the period since the start of 1994, while there are a lot of dots around the black line for the period from 1960 to 1989. I thought that chart put the recent history into perspective. But I do think that money remains an important monitor for monetary policy, and I believe it would be useful in our Humphrey-Hawkins report to discuss the fact that M2 growth deviated from its historical pattern for a period of time but that it now appears to be coming back. Like Governor Meyer, I am uncomfortable with the current ranges, but I do not want to use them as a monetary policy signal. So, I agree with your proposal not to change the ranges at this time, but I think we should beef up our discussion of the monetary aggregates in the Humphrey-Hawkins report.","[{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'At this point, I think keeping the M2 range where it is will send the message that we want to send concerning our reasonably near-term objectives relating to price stability. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I have no strong feeling about the ranges themselves, but I do feel strongly that the management of the issue is important. In that sense, I strongly support your recommendation. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Phillips. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MEYER.', 'text': 'At this time, however, I am going to defer to the judgment of the Chairman, but I hope that between now and the next time I have to vote on this issue, we will find some means to improve the way that we handle the monetary growth ranges.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Minehan.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'I, too, am in favor of your recommendation, Mr. Chairman, for many of the reasons that have been expressed around the table.I think it is a communication device.With only a few technical exceptions, all the changes we have made in the ranges over the years have been to reduce them consistent with our objective of fostering progress toward stable prices.At this point, I think keeping the M2 range where it is will send the message that we want to send concerning our reasonably near-term objectives relating to price stability.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I have no strong feeling about the ranges themselves, but I do feel strongly that the management of the issue is important.In that sense, I strongly support your recommendation.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Phillips.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,neutral,utterance
262,264,19960703_478_5,VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.,"""I think the Committee could give certain guidelines for the Desk and the Chairman to follow.""","Yes, and we do not want a leaked list or somebody trying to obtain it through a FOIA request. A list cannot be leaked or released if it does not exist. My preference would be for us to have a discussion to arrive at a sense of the Committee concerning standards. The latter might include the requirements that a country should be highly creditworthy and not be in conflict with the United States of America in some manner. I think the Committee could give certain guidelines for the Desk and the Chairman to follow. This is not a firm opinion, but my own working hypothesis is that we would be better off to have guidelines rather than a list.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Do you think we should have at least some indication from the Committee as to the eligible list of countries or some mechanism for making that sort of judgment other than requiring it to be made by the Chairman or the Vice Chairman of this Committee? '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I think that has great merit. The question is the form. Would you want a list or would you want a sense of the Committee concerning what sorts of countries might be on the list? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'We do not want a published list. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'A Manager thinks that through a few times before making that phone call, and I believe that would be appropriate.Thank you, Mr. Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Just a couple of questions relevant to this issue: The real danger here, as you imply, is that there are numerous people who can envisage a reverse repo as an extension of credit.I can very readily see that there are certain countries with which the Federal Reserve Bank of New York might engage in a reverse repo and that transaction would not sit well with various Congressional committees or a variety of other groupings within this society.Do you think we should have at least some indication from the Committee as to the eligible list of countries or some mechanism for making that sort of judgment other than requiring it to be made by the Chairman or the Vice Chairman of this Committee?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I think that has great merit.The question is the form.Would you want a list or would you want a sense of the Committee concerning what sorts of countries might be on the list?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'We do not want a published list.'}]",yes,no,,,
263,265,19970325_17_6,MR. PRELL.,"""Another factor to keep in mind is that we have had a surge in income growth over the past year or so.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.] '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Questions for Mike? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Mike, I was a little uncertain as to the wealth effects on consumer spending in the Greenbook forecast. I had the impression that there certainly was an impact from higher equity prices in particular, but in the Monday staff briefing to the Board, you seemed to be saying that there was not much of an effect. Would you go into that a little, please? '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I say that only half tongue in cheek.Questions for Peter?Starting with his second request, is there any objection to including the detailed portfolio information in the annual report?If not, we will assume that it is acceptable, and we need a vote on domestic operations.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'Move approval, Mr. Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Without objection.We also need a vote on the intermeeting leeway.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'Move approval of the additional leeway to $12 billion.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'It has been moved.Is there a second?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': 'Second.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""There is a second.Without objection.Thank you all.Let's move on with record speed to Mr. Prell.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Chairman.[Statement--see Appendix.]'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Questions for Mike?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Mike, I was a little uncertain as to the wealth effects on consumer spending in the Greenbook forecast.I had the impression that there certainly was an impact from higher equity prices in particular, but in the Monday staff briefing to the Board, you seemed to be saying that there was not much of an effect.Would you go into that a little, please?'}]",no,,,,
264,266,19970930_78_17,MR. BOEHNE.,"""But I think the time has come for us to be less defensive, and the way we do that is to adopt the stance of being open minded and alert and let the truth, whatever it is, fall out wherever it might.""","The economy in the Philadelphia District currently is performing much as it has in recent months. It features steady growth at a moderate pace, tight labor markets, and little or no upward pressure on prices. In commercial real estate, vacancy rates are low and rents are rising. More capacity is in train, however, and rents are expected to be under less pressure as more space is completed. As yet, there is surprisingly little speculative building going on in the Third District. Although wage increases seem to be holding at around 4 percent, there are more reports of additional perks, signing bonuses, and other incentives to attract and retain skilled people. With business activity generally favorable, attitudes are positive but tough competition seems to be providing a restraining influence on the development of a boom mentality. Turning to the nation, we are in a reasonably comfortable position for now. Actual performance at the macro level continues to be surprisingly good, and the risks to that favorable performance are largely unchanged from recent months. Like some of the rest of us, I did appreciate the confessions of a tortured staff. Perhaps the time has come for all of us to torture ourselves less. Most people like to be right rather than wrong; most would rather have the outcome turn out to be better than worse. The problem here is that things have turned out to be better, but most of us have been wrong. [Laughter] Depending on one's mindset, each of us will respond either by saying, ""The old model is still true; just give it time; it will reassert itself,"" or by saying, ""There is a new model at work and the world is indeed different."" My guess is that the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. We just do not know where in the middle at this point. But I think the time has come for us to be less defensive, and the way we do that is to adopt the stance of being open minded and alert and let the truth, whatever it is, fall out wherever it might. In the meantime, we make the best judgments we can. If we are right, we are right; and if we are wrong, we are wrong. But I do not think we ought to torture ourselves any longer.","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'I do not mean to ignore some other developments, which I will keep in mind when Don Kohn presents his alternatives to us a little later. These include a real fed funds rate that remains high in an historical context, core CPI inflation that has been trending lower, pipeline inflation that is essentially absent right now, inflation expectations that continue to be stable for now, inflation indicators that are pointing downward, a dollar that is higher at this point, and long-term rates that are lower than they were somewhat earlier. That is the other side of the coin that everyone is talking about and debating, and we have to keep it in mind as we raise concerns about the level of resource utilization and its implications for inflation. Thank you. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'A host of special factors seem to be affecting various parts of the economy, but fundamental economic forces may well come back to bear on the course of this cycle.I am alerted to that possibility when I look at the level of resource utilization throughout the economy, and that makes me skeptical of the explanation that we have a new paradigm that will last.I do not mean to ignore some other developments, which I will keep in mind when Don Kohn presents his alternatives to us a little later.These include a real fed funds rate that remains high in an historical context, core CPI inflation that has been trending lower, pipeline inflation that is essentially absent right now, inflation expectations that continue to be stable for now, inflation indicators that are pointing downward, a dollar that is higher at this point, and long-term rates that are lower than they were somewhat earlier.That is the other side of the coin that everyone is talking about and debating, and we have to keep it in mind as we raise concerns about the level of resource utilization and its implications for inflation.Thank you.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne.'}]",yes,no,,,
265,267,19980204_287_3,MS. MINEHAN.,"""Maybe it will be more productive this time in the sense that we will have a longer period of low inflation to observe.""","I very much favor your recommendation, Mr. Chairman. I agree it would be useful to revisit our discussions about inflation even though we have had many of them without coming to any hard conclusions. Maybe it will be more productive this time in the sense that we will have a longer period of low inflation to observe. Perhaps we can derive more information about the real tradeoffs from that experience. I am a little nervous about this notion of being forward-looking. Do we still know how to do it? Do we know enough with enough confidence to be able to say that we need to tighten policy when we are not observing any real inflation, or that we need to ease policy when we are not seeing any real deflation? You emphasized that there is a premium on quick movement, and I think there is. I believe that we need to be forward-looking. I wish I understood better how to do it.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'We have been given a bonus that we did not earn. The question is, do we make good use of it or do we dissipate it? That may well be the usefulness of trying to focus on where we want to go and what we should do from here. I think the issues raised in our earlier discussions of the nature of prices and where we are in relation to price stability are becoming quite important, especially if Al Broaddus turns out to be more cautious than he needs to be and the Asian crisis has a more deflationary effect on our economy than we now anticipate. President Minehan. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': 'Now that inflation has come down a good deal, I think it is important that we focus more specifically on what we view as our price objective.I say that not only because it may help us to communicate to the public what we are trying to do, but I believe it will help the inner workings of the Committee over time.So, I would agree that we should spend some time on that issue in July.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Of course, what has happened to us is that the cost of lowering inflation that we always presumed to be negative has turned out to be positive.We have been given a bonus that we did not earn.The question is, do we make good use of it or do we dissipate it?That may well be the usefulness of trying to focus on where we want to go and what we should do from here.I think the issues raised in our earlier discussions of the nature of prices and where we are in relation to price stability are becoming quite important, especially if Al Broaddus turns out to be more cautious than he needs to be and the Asian crisis has a more deflationary effect on our economy than we now anticipate.President Minehan.'}]",yes,,,,
266,268,19980701_308_15,MS. MINEHAN.,"""In that regard, I would retain the tilt toward tightening as well.""","Mr. Chairman, there is no question in my view that we currently face heightened risks. On the downside, the risks discussed during our lengthy review of the economic outlook yesterday and this morning stem from developments in Asia, Russia, and other places, projections of declining inventory investment over the short term, and the possible impact of reduced profit margins on the stock market. All of these downside risks seem more compelling than they were at the time of our May meeting, if not scary in some cases. I think we have to remember, however, that given the persisting strength of the expansion, we need some of these retarding influences to rein in the growth of the domestic economy. We have forecasted a slowdown, and we are seeing a slowdown. It may be a little larger than we expected, but I think we have to worry about overreacting to it in current circumstances. I believe the risks on the upside also have increased. We are beginning to see warning signs of rising inflation. We continue to have an atmosphere of very accommodating financial markets. We recognize that there are temporary factors at work that are still helping to restrain costs, and those temporary influences may fade away. I continue to believe, very much like President Broaddus, that we run a significant risk of excess demand whose cumulative effects may well come back to bite us in the end, and that we may have missed a couple of chances to tighten policy that we should have taken advantage of earlier. But I also agree with you and with the Vice Chairman that the timing for a policy tightening move is not favorable today, especially as the Japanese are trying to work out appropriate policies and there seem to be so many other potential developments that are hanging in the balance. So, I would agree with your proposal, in some sense reluctantly because I think our policy may well be behind the curve as far as our domestic economy is concerned. I would hope that we can, as President Broaddus has suggested, find a window of opportunity when a little tightening might be helpful both for us and for the rest of the world. In that regard, I would retain the tilt toward tightening as well.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'That sort of constraint underlies the need to take advantage of opportunities to tighten policy when they arise in an environment like this. They do not arise very often, and the window of opportunity does not often stay open very long. I know people can disagree about this, but I frankly think we may have missed a couple of opportunities in the recent past that might have served us well. So, if we see that the strength of overall demand is persisting as we go forward, perhaps as a result of an improvement in the Asian situation, and we see a window of opportunity, I believe we should take it. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Minehan. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'I still think that an increase now in the funds rate would be prudent and could well increase the lifespan of this expansion.Having said that, I recognize that for many reasons that have been expressed around this table, this would not be a convenient time to tighten policy since we are likely to get a weaker-than-expected GDP number at the end of this month and the public perception might link whatever action we might take at this meeting with that number, which would cause unfortunate problems for us.That sort of constraint underlies the need to take advantage of opportunities to tighten policy when they arise in an environment like this.They do not arise very often, and the window of opportunity does not often stay open very long.I know people can disagree about this, but I frankly think we may have missed a couple of opportunities in the recent past that might have served us well.So, if we see that the strength of overall demand is persisting as we go forward, perhaps as a result of an improvement in the Asian situation, and we see a window of opportunity, I believe we should take it.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Minehan.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,entailment,sentence
267,269,19981222_73_1,MR. BROADDUS.,"""Let me just respond to that, Mike.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Having listened to the discussions at recent meetings, people have basically said they would be very happy if we had an outcome like that. So, I do not have a sense that, with our forecast based on a stable funds rate assumption, we are giving you something that does not provide a baseline for discussion. Then, obviously, we try to give some indication of what different interest rate paths might produce. So, that is how we approach this. I hope that's helpful in some degree, but I will try to clarify it. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""I am not sure I fully grasp the point that President Broaddus is making.I will follow up bilaterally with him to make sure I have an understanding.But just to be clear on the basis of our assumption for the funds rate, let me say that our default is to assume a stable funds rate unless we see when we run through our projection that we end up with an outcome that is glaringly at odds with what the Committee in its discussions and its policy decisions has suggested would be acceptable.Having listened to the discussions at recent meetings, people have basically said they would be very happy if we had an outcome like that.So, I do not have a sense that, with our forecast based on a stable funds rate assumption, we are giving you something that does not provide a baseline for discussion.Then, obviously, we try to give some indication of what different interest rate paths might produce.So, that is how we approach this.I hope that's helpful in some degree, but I will try to clarify it.""}]",no,,,,
268,270,19991116_33_3,MR. JORDAN.,"""Oil prices are among the many things that I have absolutely no confidence in my ability to predict, so I will go with your forecast.""","Mike, you mentioned oil prices spiking. When I was reading the Greenbook, I was struck by the fact that in the very week in which oil prices were spiking, you were writing down a forecast that has the price going back down by $5 a barrel, 25 percent or so. Oil prices are among the many things that I have absolutely no confidence in my ability to predict, so I will go with your forecast. But I am curious about how sensitive your inflation outlook is to that, because there are a lot of volatile personalities who still have powerful positions in places in the world that produce oil. So, who can predict what will happen? Suppose we just draw a straight line and assume that for the next two years, the forecast horizon, oil prices remain the same as they are today. What would be the implications of that?","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'Another element undoubtedly is the recent slump in emerging market economies and the attraction of the United States and U.S. dollar assets as a safe haven. Probably the central question for you is to what extent these so-called ""imbalances"" are reflective of an unsustainable cyclical boom fostered by excessive financial ease. This, of course, just brings us back to the same fundamental issues I was discussing earlier. In essence, the ex post saving-investment balances don\'t seem to add much to the picture; they simply provide a different vantage point on the matter before you. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Questions? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'The NIPA revisions shuffled things around a bit, but the basic contours remain the same: The personal saving rate has plummeted in this decade; the private saving-investment balance has swung sharply into the negative, the counterpart being a considerable run-up in business and household debt that might someday prove burdensome; and we\'ve opened up a big current account deficit, mirrored in a rapid growth of external liabilities that might weigh on the dollar.These patterns reflect a complex set of forces, one that I fear is beyond the state of the art to sort out.But it seems likely that part of the story is the ""crowding in"" of private investment by the shift in the federal budget, some of which has been structural.Another element undoubtedly is the recent slump in emerging market economies and the attraction of the United States and U.S. dollar assets as a safe haven.Probably the central question for you is to what extent these so-called ""imbalances"" are reflective of an unsustainable cyclical boom fostered by excessive financial ease.This, of course, just brings us back to the same fundamental issues I was discussing earlier.In essence, the ex post saving-investment balances don\'t seem to add much to the picture; they simply provide a different vantage point on the matter before you.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Questions?'}]",yes,no,,,
269,271,19991221_139_2,MR. GUYNN.,"""I hope that won't be interpreted as any lack of enthusiasm for getting back to our work after the first of the year.""","I prefer symmetry as well. I hope that won't be interpreted as any lack of enthusiasm for getting back to our work after the first of the year. I think all the arguments have been made. To change from symmetry at this point and give people even six weeks to try to figure out why we did it and whether we anticipate doing something different soon after the first of the year is, in my view, a distraction that we just don't need. I'm part of the ""Happy Holidays"" camp as well. If we could get by with doing that, I would like it very much.","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'I prefer the symmetric one, Mr. Chairman. After all we have invested in Y2K preparations, with options and special liquidity programs, changing our bias as we get to this point near the end does not seem to me to be the best thing to do. To my mind the symmetric language makes clear to the market that a smooth Y2K transition is still our priority and that we will get through that period before we take up the issue of tightening again. So, I much prefer the symmetric directive. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Guynn. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': ""I have a slight preference for the symmetric one because in my mind it really does put the horse before the cart in that it says quite clearly that first we have the rollover to the year 2000 and then we have next year.And I think it's important to keep reinforcing that sense of priority of getting into the year 2000 and focusing then on the next move.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""I prefer the symmetric directive.This is a meeting that in many ways we didn't need to have and I think the symmetric approach essentially reaffirms where we are.And it comes closest to having perceptions after the meeting stay exactly where they were before the meeting.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoenig.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'I prefer the symmetric one, Mr. Chairman.After all we have invested in Y2K preparations, with options and special liquidity programs, changing our bias as we get to this point near the end does not seem to me to be the best thing to do.To my mind the symmetric language makes clear to the market that a smooth Y2K transition is still our priority and that we will get through that period before we take up the issue of tightening again.So, I much prefer the symmetric directive.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Guynn.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,,
270,272,20001219_117_5,MR. MOSKOW.,"""So, I don't see any good side to it.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I have a slight difference of opinion with my colleague, Mr. Parry, on the Wall Street Journal article. I consider that article very unfortunate because when leaks like that occur I think it makes us look bad as a central bank. We've had this discussion before. So, I don't see any good side to it. Getting back to the subject at hand, clearly we are in a situation where we're all concerned that the slowing that we wanted to see and are now seeing is going to be excessive. As you and others have pointed out, no one knows with certainty whether further weakening will occur because of the complexity of our economy and the interaction of the financial markets, consumer confidence, and all the other factors that we discussed. I agree that the anecdotes point to a much lower rate of growth than do our models at this time. But they are anecdotes, and I think we'd all like to see some more evidence in the data and other information we receive that would help clarify the situation. In a period of uncertainty like this, the incremental approach seems appropriate and I agree with your recommendation for no change in rates but an asymmetric statement that the risks are weighted toward economic weakness at this time.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""When I was thinking about that possibility at the end of last week, I was concerned that the markets might find it a bit confusing in terms of what we are trying to communicate. Ironically, as it turns out, the article that appeared in the Wall Street Journal may make that less of a problem. In addition, it seems to me that our press statement should be very carefully worded because my concern is that the markets might be a little confused about how weak we think the economy is and might raise the issue of why we didn't change the funds rate today. So, how our decision is written up could be an important element in terms of the success of your recommendation. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Moskow. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': ""In my view a quarter point reduction in the rate now would still leave us with a tight policy, one that continues to slow the economy, and yet it would recognize the risks that we've talked about around the table.I believe it is likely that we will have a conference call and that we will lower rates at that point.And certainly we can wait until then.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I can certainly accept your recommendation.When I was thinking about that possibility at the end of last week, I was concerned that the markets might find it a bit confusing in terms of what we are trying to communicate.Ironically, as it turns out, the article that appeared in the Wall Street Journal may make that less of a problem.In addition, it seems to me that our press statement should be very carefully worded because my concern is that the markets might be a little confused about how weak we think the economy is and might raise the issue of why we didn't change the funds rate today.So, how our decision is written up could be an important element in terms of the success of your recommendation.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Moskow.'}]",yes,no,,,
271,273,20001219_122_6,MR. GUYNN.,"""So I think your recommendation is the right one.""","Mr. Chairman, I would prefer not to ease today. I don't know how you scored me on your note pad, but in the go-around I was trying to convey that I came with a view that a balanced risk statement would be the proper first move. My staff would tell you that we were debating until I left for the airport whether the slowdown was as broad as we were beginning to sense and whether the uneasiness was as great as we sensed and, therefore, whether the recommendation you made would be the appropriate move. Vice Chairman McDonough captured my view that an easing today--although I suspect that's where we are headed--is too much too soon. To the extent that part of what is going on is that people are recalibrating from expectations of 5, 6, and 7 percent GDP as related to housing and autos and cruise ships or whatever, I think that's something we ought to let play out. So I think your recommendation is the right one. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I thought the article was abominable. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Now you agree! So do I. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Okay. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Guynn. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': ""So, I don't see any good side to it.Getting back to the subject at hand, clearly we are in a situation where we're all concerned that the slowing that we wanted to see and are now seeing is going to be excessive.As you and others have pointed out, no one knows with certainty whether further weakening will occur because of the complexity of our economy and the interaction of the financial markets, consumer confidence, and all the other factors that we discussed.I agree that the anecdotes point to a much lower rate of growth than do our models at this time.But they are anecdotes, and I think we'd all like to see some more evidence in the data and other information we receive that would help clarify the situation.In a period of uncertainty like this, the incremental approach seems appropriate and I agree with your recommendation for no change in rates but an asymmetric statement that the risks are weighted toward economic weakness at this time.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I thought the article was abominable.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Now you agree!So do I.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Okay.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Guynn.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
272,274,20011211_44_2,MR. STOCKTON.,"""But I don't think the Blue Chip forecast or our forecast is consistent with what is currently built into fed funds futures.""","Yes, indeed. But I don't think the Blue Chip forecast or our forecast is consistent with what is currently built into fed funds futures. In some sense the experiment that we tried to construct in the Greenbook was to ask how much of an upward revision would the markets have had to make in their outlook. Now, that wasn't designed to tell you what the markets' forecast is. I don't really know for sure what it is. But my guess is that it would have to be stronger than the one we're showing to justify the markets' expectation of a more aggressive tightening action by the Fed as early as they see it. So that would say that the consensus private forecast is probably closer to the Greenbook than what appears to be embedded in financial markets now.","[{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': 'Therefore, the imperative to raise rates would not be so clear that we were going to build it into our forecast by the second half of 2002. As you know, we do have rates on an uptrend in 2003 as the economy gathers even more strength and as the unemployment rate begins to turn down. Even then, the environment is still one in which we would expect to see some deceleration in overall measures of inflation. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': ""But your answer suggests that the consensus private sector forecast is for even stronger growth than in your baseline forecast of 4-1/2 percent real GDP in the third quarter and 6 percent nominal. That's not what I saw in the last Blue Chip forecast. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': 'One is that we would expect, if the Committee were not raising interest rates as much as the markets currently expect--or as the markets began to realize that the outcome was not going to be as strong as they currently anticipate--that there would be some subsidence in long-term interest rates.The way in which we thought about our policy assumptions was that, through 2003, we saw an economy that was still running with a considerable degree of slack in resource utilization and one in which inflation was still headed lower.Therefore, the imperative to raise rates would not be so clear that we were going to build it into our forecast by the second half of 2002.As you know, we do have rates on an uptrend in 2003 as the economy gathers even more strength and as the unemployment rate begins to turn down.Even then, the environment is still one in which we would expect to see some deceleration in overall measures of inflation.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': ""But your answer suggests that the consensus private sector forecast is for even stronger growth than in your baseline forecast of 4-1/2 percent real GDP in the third quarter and 6 percent nominal.That's not what I saw in the last Blue Chip forecast.""}]",yes,yes,,,utterance
273,275,20011211_180_12,MR. STERN.,"""And at least in my view our economy has a history of being resilient and largely self-correcting.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I would prefer to leave policy unchanged today. Let me quickly sketch out the elements of my reasoning. Part of it I touched on earlier. I do think that the story in the mainstream Greenbook forecast is a reasonably convincing one and I'm certainly more confident about the outlook than I have been for the past several meetings. Is it a done deal? Of course not, but that I think is too high a bar. We're not going to know that for quite some time. It does seem to me that the recent spate of data suggests that the economy is stabilizing. Not only do the data suggest that but a lot of market participants are expecting that, based on the way financial assets are being priced. And at least in my view our economy has a history of being resilient and largely self-correcting. Beyond that, I think policy has been very expansionary. I'm not talking just about aggressive reductions in interest rates, although we have done that. We have also had very rapid growth in the monetary aggregates and it would be a shock to me if we got deflation, given the kind of growth we've had in money for some time now. I don't know how fiscal policy will play out, but I would guess that we will get some added fiscal stimulus. And while it's certainly true that if this further reduction in rates turns out to be a mistake we can reverse direction when needed, it's possibly destabilizing--though I don't want to overstate this--to embark on that kind of policy path. So for that combination of reasons, recognizing that perhaps no one of them is convincing by itself, I would prefer to stay where we are.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': ""In my view it's appropriate this time because I think it will help to underpin the consumer while the inventory cycle completes itself and corporate profits and capital spending slowly return to more normal levels. I also believe that the balance of risks should be toward weaker economic growth. And I strongly support the idea of putting a signal in the wording of the press statement to the effect that the situation is not as bleak as we saw it last time. I don't want to encourage people to think that we continue to see only negative news on all fronts. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'So I still think the case is persuasive and in my view a 50 basis point cut is the best option.I recognize though that the tone of the economic data is a bit stronger in some respects and in some places this time.Therefore the argument for a half point is a little less compelling today than it was last time.But if it were my choice, I think that is the way I would go.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Moskow.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I agree with the recommendation for a 25 basis point reduction in the rate.In my view it's appropriate this time because I think it will help to underpin the consumer while the inventory cycle completes itself and corporate profits and capital spending slowly return to more normal levels.I also believe that the balance of risks should be toward weaker economic growth.And I strongly support the idea of putting a signal in the wording of the press statement to the effect that the situation is not as bleak as we saw it last time.I don't want to encourage people to think that we continue to see only negative news on all fronts.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
274,276,20020319_171_3,VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.,"""And I would point out that if the next move has to be up, which I think it will be, we can certainly move from a balanced balance of risks statement.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I concur with your recommendation. And I would point out that if the next move has to be up, which I think it will be, we can certainly move from a balanced balance of risks statement. There is no reason at all in my view to inhibit us from doing that.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""But I also believe that our decisions are going to become progressively more complex. The one thing we're certain about is that the world doesn't move as smoothly as Vince has portrayed in his charts and it's not going to look that way later. Perhaps he should have taken the numbers off these charts! Accordingly, I will put on the table the proposal that we keep the funds rate target unchanged at 13/4 percent and that we move the balance of risks statement to balance. Vice Chair. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""And if we decide not to move in May, that would be accepted as well.By the time of the May meeting, I think we will have learned a good deal about what is happening to inventory investment and its impact on the economy and, of course, about trends in profits and capital investment.I'm not saying that we'll know the final answers, but we'll surely know a lot more about the direction.So my judgment is that the call is a relatively easy one for this meeting, at least as I see it at this stage.But I also believe that our decisions are going to become progressively more complex.The one thing we're certain about is that the world doesn't move as smoothly as Vince has portrayed in his charts and it's not going to look that way later.Perhaps he should have taken the numbers off these charts!Accordingly, I will put on the table the proposal that we keep the funds rate target unchanged at 13/4 percent and that we move the balance of risks statement to balance.Vice Chair.""}]",yes,yes,-5 sentences,contradiction,-5 sentences
275,277,20020924_192_5,VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.,"""That's a lot easier to convey in a couple of words in the statement.""","I think there's a little confusion about what we mean when we're talking about the importance of geopolitical events. It's not as if we mean that a geopolitical event is, say, that we start bombing Iraq three or four weeks from now. Maybe we will, and maybe we won't. Rather, the point is what the geopolitical environment does to the level of uncertainty and the effects of that on the real economy. That's a lot easier to convey in a couple of words in the statement.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BERNANKE.', 'text': ""I'm just wondering how you're going to get all of that in the statement! [Laughter] ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I wrote it in disappearing ink! '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'May I make a comment? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Yes. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""If it doesn't happen that way, that will mean that the expansion is continuing, and indeed I think the possibility of a lot of momentum when the malaise is lifted is being underestimated.I do not believe that we can effectively make a judgment that economic activity is going to be X percent below potential by the middle or the end of 2003.I don't believe any of our models can even remotely answer that question in a useful way.To be sure, they will generate numbers because that's what models are told to do.But my experience is that such forecasts incorporate the weakest capabilities that economists possess.Once the economy starts to move, it absorbs excess capacity very quickly; and when it starts down, the reverse is also true.The very unusual case is the presumption of an economy that will do nothing, which is essentially what the Greenbook is saying.So I don't think we can look ahead to a simple decision.It is going to be a tough one.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNANKE.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I appreciate your analysis.I'm just wondering how you're going to get all of that in the statement![Laughter]""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I wrote it in disappearing ink!'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'May I make a comment?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Yes.'}]",yes,no,,,
276,278,20030129_140_1,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""You know, that's the issue of risk aversion right there.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""That is the sort of policy error that allows expectations to get out in front. It allows a spiral to develop that becomes very, very hard to reverse. If we react too aggressively, that also can be a policy mistake. But tightening too much because we're afraid of inflation or easing too much because we're concerned about deflation or recession is much more easily reversed without cumulating expectational problems getting built in. So to me the lesson for the Committee from these optimal rules is that we are probably better off being a little too aggressive than being not aggressive enough in terms of the possible consequences for the economy over time. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""Having said that, I think there is a valuable lesson embedded here, and it goes to the discussion you were having about policy mistakes.It's better generally for policy to act too strongly than too weakly to developing situations.Serious policy errors have been made when policy doesn't react aggressively enough to a developing situation.Examples are the Federal Reserve in the 1970s or the Bank of Japan in the 1990s.That is the sort of policy error that allows expectations to get out in front.It allows a spiral to develop that becomes very, very hard to reverse.If we react too aggressively, that also can be a policy mistake.But tightening too much because we're afraid of inflation or easing too much because we're concerned about deflation or recession is much more easily reversed without cumulating expectational problems getting built in.So to me the lesson for the Committee from these optimal rules is that we are probably better off being a little too aggressive than being not aggressive enough in terms of the possible consequences for the economy over time.""}]",no,,,,
277,279,20030129_263_13,MR. BROADDUS.,"""So I would ask what sort of adjustments that would induce in the U.S. economy.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'One quick detail question: On the middle left panel of chart 5, what is the difference between the trend and the transitory components of structural productivity? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. STRUCKMEYER.', 'text': 'The trend component was the part that we thought would persist; the transitory part reflected the level effects that we saw going on. So if a business restructures--makes some one-time efficiency gains that we think are going to last in terms of the level of its productivity--we call that the transitory effect. We saw that type of restructuring effect a lot last year as opposed to an ongoing introduction of new technologies that would revolutionize the way businesses operate--as we saw in the late 1990s. So we were trying to distinguish one effect from the other. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Is that a technical--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': ""We've found over the last couple of years that inflation compensation inferred from the indexed debt is very sensitive to oil prices--a little oversensitive.So we can explain part of that by the run-up in oil prices.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Thank you.President Broaddus.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'I have two questions, Mr. Chairman.One quick detail question: On the middle left panel of chart 5, what is the difference between the trend and the transitory components of structural productivity?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STRUCKMEYER.', 'text': 'The trend component was the part that we thought would persist; the transitory part reflected the level effects that we saw going on.So if a business restructures--makes some one-time efficiency gains that we think are going to last in terms of the level of its productivity--we call that the transitory effect.We saw that type of restructuring effect a lot last year as opposed to an ongoing introduction of new technologies that would revolutionize the way businesses operate--as we saw in the late 1990s.So we were trying to distinguish one effect from the other.'}]",no,,,,
278,280,20030812_18_5,MR. KOS.,"""I don't believe the size of those countries, which is fairly modest, would be large enough to explain what we've seen.""","I have not seen any data on that. I don't believe that the ECB makes those data available if they have them. Obviously, the euro is becoming used more actively. Some countries in eastern Europe have currency boards, but I don't know that that would explain the shift in the reflow of U.S. currency. I don't believe the size of those countries, which is fairly modest, would be large enough to explain what we've seen.","[{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""Well, I'd say that the improvement that's apparent in Argentina--whether it will be long-lasting is a different question--no doubt has had an impact in getting people to use the domestic currency there. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""That's the reason I asked if there were any regional or country concentrations, but Dino says no. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOS.', 'text': ""It's everywhere. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Do we have any data on shipments of euros? Could there be a substitution process under way? '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""The rate of inflation is falling everywhere.The decline in the growth of currency seems rather dramatic, and it calls out for an explanation.You're not about to give it to me![Laughter]""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOS.', 'text': ""I wish I could.I don't know if Mr. Reinhart has any insight, but it's a bit of a mystery.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': ""I would point out, Mr. Chairman, that growth in currency held domestically also has been about flat, but that had been growing relatively slowly for the last four months.Where we get the slowdown is in our estimates of the currency held abroad.That's a fact, not an explanation.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""Well, I'd say that the improvement that's apparent in Argentina--whether it will be long-lasting is a different question--no doubt has had an impact in getting people to use the domestic currency there.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""That's the reason I asked if there were any regional or country concentrations, but Dino says no.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOS.', 'text': ""It's everywhere.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Do we have any data on shipments of euros?Could there be a substitution process under way?'}]",yes,no,,,
279,281,20030812_154_6,MR. KOHN.,"""But like Governor Bernanke, I think we need to work on how we talk about our assessments and judgments regarding the economy and our objectives going forward, without perhaps being very specific.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I also support both parts of your recommendation. I agree with those who've said that it's very difficult to talk about the future. And I play second fiddle to no one in my humility regarding my ability to forecast; as you can attest to over the years, that humility is well earned. I also agree with President Poole that it would be very risky and counterproductive to promise to keep rates at a particular level for a certain period of time. But like Governor Bernanke, I think we need to work on how we talk about our assessments and judgments regarding the economy and our objectives going forward, without perhaps being very specific. To the extent that the markets make their judgments about future rates with a more accurate estimate or knowledge of what we're thinking about, we're going to get better feedback from the markets. The markets are going to act in a more stabilizing way even when they don't agree with us, which is fine. But they need to know what we're thinking about in order to do a good job of assessing how the 800-pound gorilla in the money markets views the outlook. So, while I agree that we need to give more thought to it, I haven't given up entirely on trying to do something in terms of how we communicate about the future. Thank you.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BERNANKE.', 'text': ""Obviously, bad communication is much worse than no communication, but I wouldn't want to rule out communication completely as a way of trying to enhance our arsenal. Thank you. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Olson. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. OLSON.', 'text': 'I support both parts of the recommendation, and I also look forward to our meeting in September regarding communications. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kohn. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BERNANKE.', 'text': ""Now, the reaction of the Committee has been that it's so powerful that perhaps we want to stay away from it completely.[Laughter]But if we give no information about our future intentions, then somehow or another the market has to make an assumption or come to some conclusion about what our policy is going to be.The presumption, therefore, is that we are so bad at giving information that we better leave it to the market to draw information from nothing.I don't want to be that pessimistic.I would hope that in the future we could think of ways that we could fine-tune our communication to use it productively.Particularly near the zero bound, it could become an important part of our tool kit.Obviously, bad communication is much worse than no communication, but I wouldn't want to rule out communication completely as a way of trying to enhance our arsenal.Thank you.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Olson.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. OLSON.', 'text': 'I support both parts of the recommendation, and I also look forward to our meeting in September regarding communications.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kohn.'}]",yes,no,,,
280,282,20030812_200_2,MR. HOENIG.,"""If we just repeat what we said before, we're signaling to everyone that policy is on hold.""","On balance, I think it would be preferable to drop the last sentence because it does change the statement, which gets attention, and then expectations change. If we just repeat what we said before, we're signaling to everyone that policy is on hold. In terms of policy announcements or implications, I think that is the safer course, and we can have a full discussion of these communication issues at the September meeting. I recognize that this last sentence comes out of the semiannual monetary policy report, but if it becomes part of the Committee's statement, it will receive more emphasis.","[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': 'I think we can convey Roger\'s sense of the message in that last sentence but cut down the use of the word ""disinflation"" by one, by dropping ""aimed at raising"" all the way through to ""disinflation."" In other words, Roger wants to convey that policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period, and we can do that without all these words and without raising the word count on disinflation. So my first point is to offer that as a compromise. Second, I actually like this sentence, but procedurally I would not be upset if we waited until next time, after we really think through all the implications, to include it. So my first preference would be just to drop the phrase I mentioned, and my second choice would be to hold it over until next time. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""But this is an important issue, and I'd like to hear from those of you who have views one way or the other on this.Governor Gramlich.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': 'I\'ll suggest a compromise.A lot of people do word counts on these statements--count how often a particular word is used.I think we can convey Roger\'s sense of the message in that last sentence but cut down the use of the word ""disinflation"" by one, by dropping ""aimed at raising"" all the way through to ""disinflation.""In other words, Roger wants to convey that policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period, and we can do that without all these words and without raising the word count on disinflation.So my first point is to offer that as a compromise.Second, I actually like this sentence, but procedurally I would not be upset if we waited until next time, after we really think through all the implications, to include it.So my first preference would be just to drop the phrase I mentioned, and my second choice would be to hold it over until next time.'}]",yes,,,,
281,283,20030915_6_4,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""Let's see if we can get most of that out of the way and completed this evening, if possible.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Then we'll go to a broad discussion of the issues. I might add for those of you who have specific points of view that differ from what Vincent laid out or from what I laid out, we will use the discussion period for you to expound on your views. If your commentary gets too extended, people will get up and leave! [Laughter] Why don't we take a short break. [Dessert break] ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""As I said at the beginning, the fact that communication is the problem and not the fundamentals of what we do--namely, what the target funds rate is, how soon we move, and the size of any changes--suggests that we are handling those big things rather well.Communication should be a relatively modest part of what we do.The fact that we have the luxury to spend a good deal of time on it is an indication that the rest of our world, if I can put it that way, is running satisfactorily.Let me call for a small break at this time so everybody can go get dessert.But let's come back as quickly as we can, and we'll resume with questions to Vincent.Then we'll go to a broad discussion of the issues.I might add for those of you who have specific points of view that differ from what Vincent laid out or from what I laid out, we will use the discussion period for you to expound on your views.If your commentary gets too extended, people will get up and leave![Laughter] Why don't we take a short break.[Dessert break]""}]",no,,,,
282,284,20030915_129_8,MR. STERN.,"""Second, I think we should try to accelerate the release of the minutes whatever we do with the statement.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. First of all, I count myself among those who don't think that our current policies are all that bad and in need of a major overhaul. I agree with most, but not all, of the comments that President Moskow just made. So let me offer a few quick suggestions and express a couple of concerns. As I understood your conversation with Bob Parry, one suggestion is to use the Bluebook more extensively to spell out some alternatives and give at least a rough idea of the language that would go with them. Whether that's alternative 4 in Vincent's material, I'm not sure. In any event, I think that's a constructive suggestion, and we ought to think about trying to implement that over time. Second, I think we should try to accelerate the release of the minutes whatever we do with the statement. In other words, I don't think moving up the publication of the minutes is contingent upon what we put in the statement. I believe the minutes are an underutilized asset. We spend a good deal of time and go to a lot of trouble to prepare them as it is, and then we release them at a time when people are no longer interested in them. It seems to me that they are an accurate representation of what has been discussed at a meeting, and we ought to try to get them out while they're still relevant. In my view they would do a better job of providing a description and conveying the nuances of what was going on at the meeting than anything else that we could do. So if I would urge anything strongly, it would be the earlier release of the minutes. I personally believe that whatever added resources it would take to accomplish that would probably be well worth it.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'We said that although the ""foreseeable future"" is ""intended to cover an interval extending beyond the next FOMC meeting,"" the concept is necessarily elastic. [Laughter] '}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'What could be clearer! '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'It clearly refers to an elastic period that goes beyond the next FOMC meeting. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'We should think carefully about that--whether we really want to talk about the risks to price stability as opposed to the risks to the outlook for inflation.I think that\'s a question we should discuss as a group.The other part of option 4 was that, when a substantive change is contemplated, this would be communicated to the Committee before the meeting so we would have some time to think about it.I think that\'s in line with the conversation you were having about the wording in the Bluebook, and I agree with that very strongly.From a process standpoint, that will be much better for this Committee in terms of our operations.The final point I would make is on the term ""foreseeable future.""We did actually define it very specifically in the year 2000.We said that although the ""foreseeable future"" is ""intended to cover an interval extending beyond the next FOMC meeting,"" the concept is necessarily elastic.[Laughter]'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'What could be clearer!'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'It clearly refers to an elastic period that goes beyond the next FOMC meeting.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern.'}]",yes,no,,,
283,285,20031028_136_1,MR. REINHART.,"""Well, I would say that, on one level, rapid growth in aggregate supply only raises the bar for the growth of aggregate demand that the Committee should desire to get the outcomes it wants.""","Well, I would say that, on one level, rapid growth in aggregate supply only raises the bar for the growth of aggregate demand that the Committee should desire to get the outcomes it wants. So in that sense, there still could be unwelcome declines in inflation.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Questions for Vincent? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Vincent, in the top panel of exhibit 4, there is a column labeled ""unwelcome fall."" One thing we\'ve learned in the last two quarters is that productivity has been extraordinarily strong. Certainly the probability of a decline in inflation from, let\'s say, the level in the forecast may be reasonably remote, but the proportion of it that may be welcome may have changed because of a shift in supply. There\'s no mechanism for reflecting the fact that not all declines in inflation are unwelcome. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': 'That is, the Committee=s definition of a considerable period could be made contingent upon the outlook for further disinflation.One such possibility, given at the bottom right, would have the statement read that ""the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be maintained for the considerable period it currently assesses will be required to foster the moderation of disinflationary pressures.""The Committee considered such a change at the September meeting, felt it to be a close call, and ultimately decided that altering the language would draw more attention than warranted.You may feel yourself still to be in that position at this meeting.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Thank you.Questions for Vincent?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Vincent, in the top panel of exhibit 4, there is a column labeled ""unwelcome fall.""One thing we\'ve learned in the last two quarters is that productivity has been extraordinarily strong.Certainly the probability of a decline in inflation from, let\'s say, the level in the forecast may be reasonably remote, but the proportion of it that may be welcome may have changed because of a shift in supply.There\'s no mechanism for reflecting the fact that not all declines in inflation are unwelcome.'}]",yes,no,,,
284,286,20040316_140_12,MR. KOHN.,"""I don't expect much to happen, but in my cost-benefit analysis, the downside risks get a little more weight than the upside risks.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. It will come as a surprise to no one that I have at least a mild preference for staying with the inflation risk toward the downside. In my mind, we haven't yet actually seen evidence--we have a lot of anecdotes but no real evidence--that inflation has even stabilized. It is true that core PCE has moved up, though from extremely low levels. But the core CPI continues to decelerate even on a three-month basis. So I'd prefer to be more certain that actual inflation has stopped falling before I can be convinced that the outlook calls for moving to balance on the inflation risks. My second point is that I think we all expect total inflation to decline relative to last year. At least the FOMC members projected inflation of 1 to 11/4 percent this year, which is about 1/2 point less than it was in 2003. Now, a lot of that reflects a projected decline in energy prices, and perhaps it's not unwelcome, but the total is expected to fall. And finally, from my perspective, in a risk-management sense, any decline in inflation from current levels--if it's more than a tenth or so--is more unwelcome than any increase. I think inflation is at such a low level that a decline has more welfare costs potentially over time than a rise. I don't expect much to happen, but in my cost-benefit analysis, the downside risks get a little more weight than the upside risks.","[{'speaker': 'MR. GUYNN.', 'text': 'In fact, I think we may have stayed with the phrase ""unwelcome decline in inflation"" too long. Those words in the statement don\'t seem to be reflective of the discussion we had this morning. So I would have a preference for a balanced risks statement on inflation. Thank you. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kohn. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""I think a change in our statement about the inflation risks is imminent; it's just a matter of exactly when it will be made.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': ""Thank you, Mr. Chairman.I, too, would have at least a mild preference for going to balance on the inflation risks.The reason is that, as I listened to the discussion today, it struck me that we heard more anecdotes that seemed consistent with the possibility of building inflationary pressures.So on that basis, as well as other factors, balance seems genuinely appropriate to me.That's where I would come out on the issue.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Guynn.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUYNN.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I could support your recommendation, but I share the view of President Stern and others in that the discussion around the table today sounded, at least to my ear, as if we do see the inflation risks as balanced.In fact, I think we may have stayed with the phrase ""unwelcome decline in inflation"" too long.Those words in the statement don\'t seem to be reflective of the discussion we had this morning.So I would have a preference for a balanced risks statement on inflation.Thank you.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kohn.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
285,287,20040630_147_2,MS. JOHNSON.,"""But, you know, when I read my own briefing I realize what it means--that this problem is going to continue to grow.""","If U.S. macroeconomic policy remains well grounded, if the value of goods in terms of U.S. dollars is well maintained by this Committee, if nature doesn't impose some truly exogenous crazy event on the U.S. economy, and if U.S. fiscal policy could get a little better, I think those are the things that will determine how this situation evolves. But, you know, when I read my own briefing I realize what it means--that this problem is going to continue to grow. And I remember Herb Stein's admonition and say that this situation can't go on; at some point, in some way, an adjustment has to occur. The paper had a rather benign outcome in which the productivity differential just worked its way through the system and things more or less corrected. I can certainly imagine, if the same sort of productivity shock that hit the United States were to become evident abroad--which we keep looking for--that it would accelerate that process even more. And those stories do exist. Those adjustment paths are very credible.","[{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""On the other hand, I was an adult in the 1970s and early 1980s, and I remember periods when the dollar was thought to be a very weak currency. And I remember periods when Federal Reserve policies weren't well regarded. So I'm not about to say that could never happen. I just don't see it happening any time soon. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': 'So in a sense, you think we control the risk? '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': 'Karen, do you want to hazard a view on whether the probability of a benign adjustment exceeds that of a malign disorderly adjustment?'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Ask her to predict the exchange rate!'}, {'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""We're just not in the business of predicting crises here.Down deep the things that make the U.S. economy different from the rest of the world I think are overpowering in terms of the role of the dollar, notably the size of the economy, the flexibility of the markets, and the depth and size of the asset markets.The notion that the world's investors will truly become so disheartened about the U.S. economy that they will produce something that would look like a disorderly adjustment strikes me as remote.On the other hand, I was an adult in the 1970s and early 1980s, and I remember periods when the dollar was thought to be a very weak currency.And I remember periods when Federal Reserve policies weren't well regarded.So I'm not about to say that could never happen.I just don't see it happening any time soon.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': 'So in a sense, you think we control the risk?'}]",yes,,,,
286,288,20040810_157_1,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""That's not what I said.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Vice Chair. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': 'I\'m comfortable with the statement and with your recommendation. I just want to raise a question about your ""no surprises"" rule. That\'s not quite the way you framed it. I\'m a little uncomfortable being in a regime where we never surprise-- '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': ""And as I noted in my earlier statements, whether or not we pause at some point has to depend very much on the data; but I think the market also has given us some signals that a pause would not be completely unexpected, so we shouldn't worry too much.Finally, without piling it on, I don't think it's appropriate for us at this meeting just to decide that part of our dual mandate is unimportant.I'm not sure we have the right or the authority to do that, and I'm not sure that--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Are we doing that?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': ""No, I'm not suggesting that we are.I'm saying that a few members have suggested that perhaps we are.But I know you would not tolerate that![Laughter] I am doing what a Board member should do, which is supporting the Chairman in reinforcing the law.People have laughed about it, but to me it's pretty clear that we have to be relatively symmetric in our concern about both sides of the mandate.Thank you.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Vice Chair.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': 'I\'m comfortable with the statement and with your recommendation.I just want to raise a question about your ""no surprises"" rule.That\'s not quite the way you framed it.I\'m a little uncomfortable being in a regime where we never surprise--'}]",no,,,,
287,289,20040921_95_23,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""The problem here is that there is a wide consensus that this is the time we want the devaluation of the dollar to happen, not later when the economy may be in a weakened structural situation.""","Not quite. Now, if I believed in the efficacy of intervention, which I do not, it would not surprise me to be sitting here and observing the sequence of events that Dino has described this morning. Dino is talking about reductions in volatility and related increases in stability. We're looking at an extraordinarily stable system in which there is a benign response to 75 basis points--or will be. [Laughter] Well, I'm not prone to avoid making forecasts! The question that I think arises is whether, on the basis of history as Karen points out, we can get through these periods without crises, as a developing literature around the world suggests. If there were a way in which we could move the dollar's exchange rate down significantly in a manner that had no secondary effects, would we not want to accomplish that? Would we prefer the euro-dollar relationship at this stage to be at 145 instead of 122? The answer is, ""Yes, we would."" But we don't know how to get there. The general presumption might be that we can get there through intervention, but the experience with interventions suggests otherwise. There are some people here who were at the Fed during the Plaza Accord period. I was not, but I was watching from the outside, and I don't recall a lot of intervention. My recollection was that in February 1985 the dollar and the pound sterling were almost at parity at one point. The situation was like an avalanche waiting to break; and when the G-5 met and released a few statements, the avalanche did break. There wasn't a great deal of intervention, but it appeared to be extraordinarily successful. That struck me in retrospect as sheer luck. I don't recall that the G-5 said anything of great significance. We have a degree of credibility in the Federal Reserve, but I'm not at all certain that if, for example, the Secretary of the Treasury and a number of us started talking in that direction, we would knock the dollar-euro exchange rate down sharply. I hesitate to think of the consequences. If it were easy to do, I would recommend it. The problem here is that there is a wide consensus that this is the time we want the devaluation of the dollar to happen, not later when the economy may be in a weakened structural situation.","[{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""But that's terribly complicated, more by politics, property rights, infrastructure, and those kinds of issues than by anything inherent in this imbalance problem. ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""We've raised an issue of very outsized numbers and the potential for financial instability. But there seems little we can do here in this country on the monetary policy side--possibly a lot we could do on the fiscal policy side but not on the monetary policy side. ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'The essential monetary policy contribution, it seems to me, is to keep U.S. inflation low and U.S. output as close to potential at a sustainable rate as possible. This is what you would do in any event. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""There have been investment bank articles that I'm sure some of you have seen about how fifty years from now China, India, and Brazil are going to be the dominant economies in the globe.If that capital accumulation is realized, that's domestic demand in the rest of the world.The market economies of the globe can handle all that; there's no reason to think that it can't lead to a quite benign resolution of the circumstances we're now in.But that's terribly complicated, more by politics, property rights, infrastructure, and those kinds of issues than by anything inherent in this imbalance problem.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""We've raised an issue of very outsized numbers and the potential for financial instability.But there seems little we can do here in this country on the monetary policy side--possibly a lot we could do on the fiscal policy side but not on the monetary policy side.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'The essential monetary policy contribution, it seems to me, is to keep U.S. inflation low and U.S. output as close to potential at a sustainable rate as possible.This is what you would do in any event.'}]",yes,,,,
288,290,20041110_127_9,MR. POOLE.,"""If I think about where we were six months ago, I thought it was extraordinarily unlikely that we were going to remain at 1 percent on the funds rate.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support your recommendation both for the increase in the funds rate and the statement. I'd like to offer just a couple of other observations. The reason the communications process is so important is that it's highly desirable that the market and the Federal Reserve read incoming data the same way and that the interpretation is a correct assessment of the significance of the incoming data. That's not so easy to do but, as Cathy Minehan pointed out earlier, we certainly don't want to run the risk that the market's assessment is simply flowing from what we have said about future policy actions, which when we get to the point of taking action may not reflect our own assessment of the data that have come in. I think that the statement will have to evolve, as you suggest. I'd also like to mention that I think the greater diversity of views around the table reflects the fact that the probability distribution of where we're going to go has become considerably more spread out. Or I'll state it this way: My own probability distribution is considerably more spread out. If I think about where we were six months ago, I thought it was extraordinarily unlikely that we were going to remain at 1 percent on the funds rate. But my own view of where we're going to go has become more spread out, and where we're going to end up six months from now, I think, is going to depend much more on the data that we get in the next six months than anything that I can now put into my forecast. So I think that that divergence of views probably reflects each one of us becoming more uncertain as to where we're going to go.","[{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""I really feel that in our communication we now need to move back to something that says what we did, why we did it, maybe gives some perspective on the balance of risks, and leaves it at that. Whether we move there in December or in February--or in March, April, or May of next year--I don't care, but I'd like us to move there. To be explicit, I'd get rid of paragraph 6. Thank you. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Poole. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""But my basic instinct says that we need to get out of the zero zone on the real fed funds rate and to a positive rate for any number of reasons, which you've done a better job of touching on than I ever could.I also would like to say that I think our use of language over the last year or so was prompted by a set of extraordinary circumstances.Whether one views those circumstances as related to the extraordinary productivity performance or to the unusual market volatility when deflation concerns were very prominent, we needed to do something to calm things down.We did calm things down for a good period of time.I really feel that in our communication we now need to move back to something that says what we did, why we did it, maybe gives some perspective on the balance of risks, and leaves it at that.Whether we move there in December or in February--or in March, April, or May of next year--I don't care, but I'd like us to move there.To be explicit, I'd get rid of paragraph 6.Thank you.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Poole.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,entailment,utterance
289,291,20050503_12_5,MR. KOS.,"""The thing I would note is that GM is a smaller component of the BBB index than it would be of the high-yield index.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KOS.', 'text': ""Oh, I see. I'm sure that there would be an effect, but I haven't looked at this. As that paper was taken out, I guess it would tend to reduce the posted spreads. We did see that in the emerging-market indexes, as some countries defaulted and were taken out of the indexes. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'When Argentina came out, it was a huge effect. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""To what extent do the GM, Ford, and collateral issues, as they move out of investment-grade into high-yield, impact the average yields of, say, BBBs?Clearly, we are getting a huge increase in the supply of marginally non-investment-grade bonds.We can see the impact all over the place, because auto debt is so much larger than the debt of other issuers in that market.But I've heard very little about the measurement impact, for example, on the BBB or the Baa indexes.Are they affected materially by this shift?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOS.', 'text': 'Well, they will be affected in the short run, as investment managers reprice the GM and Ford paper.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I'm thinking more in terms of the effect on the averages of these indexes.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOS.', 'text': ""Oh, I see.I'm sure that there would be an effect, but I haven't looked at this.As that paper was taken out, I guess it would tend to reduce the posted spreads.We did see that in the emerging-market indexes, as some countries defaulted and were taken out of the indexes.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'When Argentina came out, it was a huge effect.'}]",no,,,,
290,292,20060510_154_9,MR. STERN.,"""I'm not exactly sure where right is, and so as a consequence of that I want to make sure that we have some flexibility going forward and that we continue to emphasize the data-driven nature of our decisions.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Overall, I think policy is currently well positioned to maintain price stability over time, and a 1/4 point increase today, which I favor, will on the margin enhance that position. As I noted earlier this morning, I do think the uncertainty about the inflation outlook has increased, and it may be that the risks are now tilted to the upside. But on the other side of that particular observation is the well-known lag in monetary policy between our actions and their effects. We have cumulatively moved a lot, and some of those moves have been recent, and so I don't think all of the effects are currently evident. In the past, I have emphasized with some frequency the underlying flexibility and resilience of the economy. As a consequence of that, I'm not really worried that we might go too far or overshoot. I think the economy absorbs these things pretty well, but our obligation is to try to get it right. I'm not exactly sure where right is, and so as a consequence of that I want to make sure that we have some flexibility going forward and that we continue to emphasize the data-driven nature of our decisions. I think alternative B accomplishes all of that, so I'm in favor of both the action and the language associated with it.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""I always thought a sensible path for policy here would be to go up quickly and then kind of flatten out the trajectory. We kind of got caught in an every-time escalator and never were able to flatten out that trajectory. But we're in a position where we can both be concerned about inflation and put the market on notice that the trajectory of any further rise will be a little flatter. I think that's constructive, and B does that, so I support that language. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Stern. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'If we say we\'re worried about inflation and inflation comes in a little higher, markets will react very quickly.I think the new language of alternative B does this, and I support it.I think the key part is in row 4: ""The Committee judges that some further policy firming may yet be needed to address inflation risks.""That\'s so close to last time that I think the markets will interpret it correctly.At the same time, we have to be open-minded about when any further increase will be required.I always thought a sensible path for policy here would be to go up quickly and then kind of flatten out the trajectory.We kind of got caught in an every-time escalator and never were able to flatten out that trajectory.But we\'re in a position where we can both be concerned about inflation and put the market on notice that the trajectory of any further rise will be a little flatter.I think that\'s constructive, and B does that, so I support that language.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Stern.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,entailment,utterance
291,293,20061025_179_1,MR. LACKER.,"""Governor Kohn, concerning the assessment of risk, I think I heard you say about alternative B+ that you weren't sure what effect it would have.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': ""I would say, President Minehan, that the reference in the minutes of the past two meetings to the staff's marking down the rate of growth of potential has certainly caught the attention of market participants. ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Do you think it has caught enough attention that they would still interpret a fourth-quarter growth rate of 21/2 percent or so as okay? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': ""I think, actually, that the chart I had in my briefing that showed the nine primary dealers' forecast of real GDP tracking above the Greenbook forecast suggests that they may have moved it down but they haven't moved it down as much as the staff. ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Okay. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Lacker. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Looking at what would have been referred to in a ""moderate"" or ""solid"" context, the numbers were different two years ago from what they are now.That creates an even greater level of possible confusion here.Is 2 percent good, bad, or indifferent?It depends on where you think potential is, and that has changed.So there is a complexity here that I think speaks to the difficulty of wording this sentence.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': ""I would say, President Minehan, that the reference in the minutes of the past two meetings to the staff's marking down the rate of growth of potential has certainly caught the attention of market participants.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Do you think it has caught enough attention that they would still interpret a fourth-quarter growth rate of 21/2 percent or so as okay?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': ""I think, actually, that the chart I had in my briefing that showed the nine primary dealers' forecast of real GDP tracking above the Greenbook forecast suggests that they may have moved it down but they haven't moved it down as much as the staff.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Okay.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Lacker.'}]",no,,,,
292,294,20061212_220_13,VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.,"""That distinction is important, I think, because I don't know how you get into repeating or summarizing your past position without inevitably getting into the broader set of choices that we're going to be debating in the Committee.""","Let me just say a couple of things. I think Rick's point about education is right. You can make a statement educating people about the virtues of price stability and anchoring long-term inflation expectations and the reason that's important, without taking on the challenge of educating people today about alternative ways of achieving that objective. Our debate about inflation targeting and communications is really about means not ends; and my view about education on the latter issue about means is to avoid taking on the challenge of educating the public until we know where we want to go. Once we know where we want to go, we can figure out how best to create the broader public foundation to make that possible. I'm sure that we'll have different views on that. My second point is about past positions. This is easy for me because I don't have past positions about these issues to echo or to repudiate in public. I would make a slightly different suggestion for the way to respond to those questions from, I think, Bill. You can refer people to your past positions without repeating them in substance and nuance. I don't know what the Chairman and the Vice Chairman of the Board plan to do, but I expect that you won't feel the need in public going forward to repeat your past positions on these issues. I suspect that you will refer people to your past positions without reminding them about what those were. That distinction is important, I think, because I don't know how you get into repeating or summarizing your past position without inevitably getting into the broader set of choices that we're going to be debating in the Committee. One final point, and I think Don said this more eloquently than I can say it, which is that we all have an interest in having this discussion take place below the radar screen of public debate until, again, we have a better sense of where consensus is going to lie. The more we move it into the public debate, the more risk we face of all the concerns that Governor Kohn referred to.","[{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""You can say a lot that is positive--for example, the timeliness with which we bring the minutes out. Also, I can't see that people have difficulty understanding that we have issues left to resolve. If people ask a question about communications, we can say that we've taken really major steps and that we're contemplating what more we should do to meet the objectives of monetary policy better. So my own view is that, no matter where you stand on this subject, you have a solid track record of Committee action to talk about without even getting into inflation targeting. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Vice Chairman Geithner. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Actually, I think Vice Chair Geithner was slightly ahead of me.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': 'No, go ahead.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""Thank you.I think Don's and your points, Mr. Chairman, are very well made.Coming at this maybe from a little different perspective than a lot of people do, I think there's a lot we can say about what the Committee has already done in the realm of communications.The big watershed was in 1994--in actually telling people what we were doing.You can say a lot that is positive--for example, the timeliness with which we bring the minutes out.Also, I can't see that people have difficulty understanding that we have issues left to resolve.If people ask a question about communications, we can say that we've taken really major steps and that we're contemplating what more we should do to meet the objectives of monetary policy better.So my own view is that, no matter where you stand on this subject, you have a solid track record of Committee action to talk about without even getting into inflation targeting.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Vice Chairman Geithner.'}]",yes,no,,,
293,295,20070321_238_4,CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.,"""I did not go to negotiate, I went to inform, and therefore I don't have any commitments to bring to you.""","Thank you. I'd like to make a couple of prefatory remarks. Some of the issues here are political in nature, so I'd like you to know that I have consulted a bit with the Congress. I did not go to negotiate, I went to inform, and therefore I don't have any commitments to bring to you. But I was generally pretty encouraged by my discussions. I had the sense that--and this is a very important caveat--so long as our commitment to the dual mandate remains strong both in word and in deed, we will get a fair hearing if we decide to go forward. I also have a very strong impression that the risk of going into directions that we don't want in terms of opening up the Federal Reserve Act and so on is quite low and can be managed. So we should think about this today on its merits. If we decide to go forward, we'll have to develop a strategy; but I don't think that there are immediate barriers from the political side to prevent us from considering this. That being said, I just want to say also that we have not decided that we are going to agree on an objective. There are various possibilities. We could agree on an objective. We could agree to agree but to do it in a staged and gradual way. Or we could simply not agree on an objective. Even so, I think that the discussion today would be quite helpful for our internal discussions because I'm not the only one who feels that a certain amount of disagreement exists around the table that may be associated with views on what inflation should be and how we should measure it. Again, we have not made any decisions, and I hope today will give us some more insight about how much consensus we have. Just a word on the projections: As was noted, I think that a minutes-style process could be a useful way to make sure that everybody has seen the document. But I want just to make clear that, if we do these projections, twice a year the projections, the commentary, and so forth will have to appear in the Monetary Policy Report to the President, which is about two weeks after the meeting. Therefore, we will have to work toward ensuring that we can do this in about a two-week period, or a little less than the usual period for the minutes. I just want to make that clear. Finally, I think we're in pretty good shape on time, but we're responding to several requests. We are going to try very, very hard to be finished by 3:00 p.m., so I hope everyone will keep that in mind as we go through the discussion. The discussion is open for comments on the questions that the Committee raised. President Poole.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""Once we finish the discussion, the subcommittee will compile the results, try to ascertain where we are and what the center of gravity would be, and consider what the next steps might be, depending on what people say. On the trial run, I don't anticipate an extended discussion. If people have major issues and questions to raise, they should raise them. But much of the idea of the trial run is to uncover major issues and questions, so I hope that the discussion can be relatively short. That's all I have to say by way of introduction, Mr. Chairman. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""We are not going to have staff briefings this morning, in part because they did such a good job on the memos that I didn't think we really needed to follow up with briefings this morning.But thank you all very much.We have two items on the agenda--the numerical specification of price stability and the trial run on the forecast and the forecast narrative.On the price stability objective, you have the questions in front of you.Once we finish the discussion, the subcommittee will compile the results, try to ascertain where we are and what the center of gravity would be, and consider what the next steps might be, depending on what people say.On the trial run, I don't anticipate an extended discussion.If people have major issues and questions to raise, they should raise them.But much of the idea of the trial run is to uncover major issues and questions, so I hope that the discussion can be relatively short.That's all I have to say by way of introduction, Mr. Chairman.""}]",yes,no,,,
294,296,20071031_267_9,VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.,"""Bill, I think you asked a good question.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KROSZNER.', 'text': 'For example, today, given that we are having a policy move and I am not sure that everyone around the table had anticipated that move today in their path, will we be articulating that these are not the numbers that we came into the meeting with, but these are the numbers that we think after the policy action has been taken? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': ""Yes, let's do that because it will be more consistent with the statement. So let me ask everyone to rethink their risks conditional on our policy move today. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KROSZNER.', 'text': 'Thank you. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Vice Chairman. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MISHKIN.', 'text': 'In terms of this initial launch--again emphasizing the fact that there really is a lot of consensus on the Committee because we know that the press loves to create the opposite of consensus because it sells newspapers--the more we can be supportive and to the extent that we can look unified on this, the better off we are.I sense that is actually where the Committee is, so I would encourage it in this process.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Governor Kroszner.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KROSZNER.', 'text': 'I just wanted a clarification.In the explanation, will we say that the projections are based on what we have done?For example, today, given that we are having a policy move and I am not sure that everyone around the table had anticipated that move today in their path, will we be articulating that these are not the numbers that we came into the meeting with, but these are the numbers that we think after the policy action has been taken?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': ""Yes, let's do that because it will be more consistent with the statement.So let me ask everyone to rethink their risks conditional on our policy move today.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KROSZNER.', 'text': 'Thank you.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Vice Chairman.'}]",no,,,,
295,297,20080130_99_1,MR. MADIGAN.,"""Well, that is a hard question, actually.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': 'What is the message that comes out of the projections--that is, if I am talking to the press or to others and they say, ""What do I make of all of this?"" My question to you is, What do you make of all of this? What is the message for the implications for policy or the implications for anything? You know, the data don\'t really speak for themselves. We are throwing out a lot of stuff here to the market, and what is the market supposed to make of it? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WASCHER.', 'text': ""But without much to go on, they don't take a very strong stand on whether they do a very good job of picking up the turning points because they don't have any history on which to base their analysis.So I think there are reasons to suspect that that is possibly the case, but I don't think there is any strong evidence that it is, and it is important to note that they do assume some cyclicality in births and deaths in their procedures.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Poole.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Chairman.Brian, I want to ask you about the projections.Well, it is more than an exercise now--the projections that we are offering are for real.What is the message that comes out of the projections--that is, if I am talking to the press or to others and they say, ""What do I make of all of this?""My question to you is, What do you make of all of this?What is the message for the implications for policy or the implications for anything?You know, the data don\'t really speak for themselves.We are throwing out a lot of stuff here to the market, and what is the market supposed to make of it?'}]",no,,,,
296,298,20080318_105_2,VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.,"""I think there was a pretty big change this morning at least in risk perceptions today across a bunch of markets.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': 'So right now as we speak, it is ten in the 100 camp, eight in the 75 camp, and two in the 50 camp. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Okay. Thank you. Questions? Vice Chairman. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MADIGAN.', 'text': 'You may judge that a policy decision today to implement somewhat less easing than markets expect and a statement that implies somewhat greater concern about inflation could be helpful in leaning against inflation expectations and any sense in markets that you are indifferent to downward pressure on the dollar.Alternative A would likely prompt some increase in shorter-term interest rates; but given that the risk assessment would point to continued downside risks, market participants would infer that further easing is a likely prospect, and the effects on other financial asset prices and financial conditions more generally could be reasonably limited.The 50 basis point easing of alternative B, in contrast, would suggest to market participants that you are inclined to be considerably more cautious in easing policy further, even with the downside risk assessment, and short- and intermediate-term interest rates could ratchet considerably higher, equity prices decline, and credit conditions tighten--responses that presumably would be amplified, perhaps nonlinearly, under alternatives C and D.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Thank you.Bill.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': 'I just want to update the dealer survey.We got two more responses.Two people moved from 75 to 100.So right now as we speak, it is ten in the 100 camp, eight in the 75 camp, and two in the 50 camp.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Okay.Thank you.Questions?Vice Chairman.'}]",no,,,,
297,299,20080430_289_7,MR. ROSENGREN.,"""I think we could be a little more innovative--I agree with President Lacker's point--but I think that the H.4.1 does seem to have an effect; and if we will be doing all these other things, taking another look at the H.4.1 and making sure that we don't have more untapped flexibilities probably makes a lot of sense.""","Okay. Just a quick question, which doesn't have to be answered now--given all of the financial turmoil, it would be interesting to see whether in other countries that have these different arrangements there was a decrease in either overnight or term lending with counterparties. Given the extent to which you can just work with a central bank rather than counterparties, is there any evidence in these other regimes that interbank lending transaction volume disappeared in some of these countries? I would be interested in seeing that. Regarding Governor Kroszner's comment on the H.4.1 release, it does seem that we could probably have a materiality requirement in our balance sheet. Under most circumstances, what we are doing at the discount window would seem not to hit that materiality criterion. I think we could be a little more innovative--I agree with President Lacker's point--but I think that the H.4.1 does seem to have an effect; and if we will be doing all these other things, taking another look at the H.4.1 and making sure that we don't have more untapped flexibilities probably makes a lot of sense. I would like a little more discussion of ""promote efficient and resilient money markets and government securities markets"" as a criterion. I'm not sure I would weight those criteria equally. It seems that all these criteria, for the most part, take care of most of the dead weight loss; and given that the banks still have to administrate for daylight credit, I am not sure that the burden is all that different across these various regimes. But I can imagine that that one might be different, and given we just had financial turmoil--I know this is a bit different from what President Lacker said--I would put a little more attention to that. Overall, I like option 2 and option 5. I'm comfortable with those two. I'm attracted to the voluntary balance program. On net, I would probably prefer a longer maintenance period to a one-day maintenance period, but I don't have a strong preference and could easily be convinced otherwise.","[{'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': ""We can try to keep it secret, but there's a broad ability in the market to infer when somebody goes to the window by their behavior before that. I'm saying that I don't think we should get our hopes up about ever eliminating stigma. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': ""Okay. Let's take positions and comments, keeping in mind that lunch is being held hostage. [Laughter] President Rosengren. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MEYER.', 'text': 'Basically everything clears through their equivalent of Fedwire, so they know in real time what the balances are.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Okay.Did you have a question?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': ""A comment about stigma.Every financial transaction that a substantive firm engages in that becomes known is relied upon by market participants to make inferences.There's a huge literature on the effect on equity values of the announcement of a bank line of credit; and like through this last crisis, if you talk to funding-desk guys, they're very aware at the tactical level about what counterparties are revealing by their actions in funding markets.They take that on board, and they're very strategic about what they reveal with their market transactions.We can try to keep it secret, but there's a broad ability in the market to infer when somebody goes to the window by their behavior before that.I'm saying that I don't think we should get our hopes up about ever eliminating stigma.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': ""Okay.Let's take positions and comments, keeping in mind that lunch is being held hostage.[Laughter] President Rosengren.""}]",yes,no,,,
298,300,19770118_107_1,CHAIRMAN BURNS.,"""The only way I've ever understood the whole swap network is in the language of loans.""",The only way I've ever understood the whole swap network is in the language of loans.,"[{'speaker': 'MR. GARDNER.', 'text': ""I just want to say that I'm going to withhold any such determination. It is in effect a loan. Until I talk to, if necessary, to experts whether this is a loan or a purchase of foreign currencies that the Treasury-- ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LILLY.', 'text': 'I use ""repurchase agreement,"" you don\'t criticize that. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""For 15 years we've been trying to-- ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. LILLY.', 'text': 'That will be in a written record?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""It should be written-in that, in the normal course of events, as we consider our various directives, we'll take this up, among others.That should be reported to files.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LILLY.', 'text': 'Would you like a motion?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LILLY.', 'text': 'So moved.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""A motion has been made that this agreement be entered into.Is there an objection?I hear none, and therefore, I'm going to sign it now and dispatch it to the Treasury since they're very nervous over there.I hope they've got somebody in the mail room.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'I wonder where it goes--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GARDNER.', 'text': ""Opinion has been expressed by expert members of this Board that this isn't a loan.I just want to say that I'm going to withhold any such determination.It is in effect a loan.Until I talk to, if necessary, to experts whether this is a loan or a purchase of foreign currencies that the Treasury--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LILLY.', 'text': 'I use ""repurchase agreement,"" you don\'t criticize that.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""For 15 years we've been trying to--""}]",no,,,,
299,301,19770118_487_10,CHAIRMAN BURNS.,"""I would say that, for the coming month, it would be an unacceptable increase.""","Increase in both. Let me give you the multifamily: August--366; September--560; remember there was a sudden increase associated with special activity by HUD; October--477; November--479; December--617. On the other hand, building permits figures show somewhat different results: July 1,215; August 1,296; September 1,504; November 1,590; December 1,513. So there is a small decline in permits, a large increase in housing starts with a trend in both-- a favorable one, a rather strong one. Gentlemen, we now have to turn to the decision on the domestic policy directive for the coming months. What I find particularly difficult is the specification for the federal funds rate this coming month. Now, in alternative B, I find myself really wrestling [with a choice between] the federal funds rate specified under alternative B, and a still-smaller range that is 4-1/2 to 5 percent. Now, you know, these ranges have to be realistic. I thought for a time of a range of 4-1/4 to 5-1/4, and I asked myself a question: What would happen to the world we live in if the federal funds rate were to rise from 4-5/8 to 5-1/4? I would say that, for the coming month, it would be an unacceptable increase. So I brought it down to 5, and then I asked myself a question: What about the rate going down to 4-1/4? Well that's possible; 4-1/2 is perhaps better. I could live with one or the other. I think I would like 4-1/2 to 5 a little better. As for the growth rates, those under alternative B look all right to me; perhaps it might be shaded by a 1/2 point.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': '[Lunch break] '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Now we are ready for item 4. Let me give you the housing figure. Here is the way they have been running, to give you a frame of reference: August--1,537,000; September--1,840,000; October--1,814,000; November--1,716,000; December--1,940,000. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Single or multifamily? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Yes, but I might add that it seems as certain as death and taxes in May and June.The refunds that we are projecting--and we could be off again on that projection of the amount of refund--but if it does turn out to be $3 billion higher, it's likely it will bulge in March.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""Thank you, Mr. Axilrod.We have to make a decision as to the procedure.It's 5 minutes to 1:00.And we could continue this meeting and perhaps reach a resolution as to our short-range targets quickly, or we could break for lunch and come back at 2:00.What is the pleasure of the Committee?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'I think we ought to break.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'The suggestion has been made that we break for lunch; I hear no protest.[Lunch break]'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Now we are ready for item 4.Let me give you the housing figure.Here is the way they have been running, to give you a frame of reference: August--1,537,000; September--1,840,000; October--1,814,000; November--1,716,000; December--1,940,000.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Single or multifamily?'}]",yes,yes,utterance,,utterance
300,302,19770215_381_2,MR. PARTEE.,"""Unfortunately, the people who comment on this don't recognize this--it stirs up concerns.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Give it to them. Sell it to them at a market price. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""On the substance of your concern, Mr. Chairman, I don't think the [sub]committee was of one view that there is a concern [but] I would have the concern that it's hard for this Committee to distinguish among issues that are fully guaranteed by the federal government. That, in effect, the decision about support of a local instrumentality is made by the Congress in providing the 100 percent guarantee in the first place, and it's a little hard for us to second-guess that one if we are buying guaranteed agency issues. And that's of course why we slid into this other approach, where that kind of consideration is absent from our recommendation. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, would it be acceptable to the Committee if we discussed with the Federal Financing Bank whether they would like to take over?This may be very difficult.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Sell these to the Federal Financing Bank?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': 'Yes, this would be an unusual sort of transaction.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Why not do the unusual thing--get them to buy it?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'And maybe take the financing back.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Give it to them.Sell it to them at a market price.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""On the substance of your concern, Mr. Chairman, I don't think the [sub]committee was of one view that there is a concern [but] I would have the concern that it's hard for this Committee to distinguish among issues that are fully guaranteed by the federal government.That, in effect, the decision about support of a local instrumentality is made by the Congress in providing the 100 percent guarantee in the first place, and it's a little hard for us to second-guess that one if we are buying guaranteed agency issues.And that's of course why we slid into this other approach, where that kind of consideration is absent from our recommendation.""}]",no,,,,
301,303,19770621_203_9,MR. WINN.,"""Normally, you would think that would occur rather rapidly.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. ZEISEL.', 'text': 'And they are making that assumption. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'At higher prices. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ZEISEL.', 'text': 'At higher prices. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'All right, thank you, Mr. Lilly. Mr. Winn now, please. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""It seems to me there's one last week--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ZEISEL.', 'text': 'We have kept in touch following your comments last month, Governor.We kept in touch with this legislation and, obviously, you are perfectly right.The producers are disturbed, quite worried--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LILLY.', 'text': ""Well, here's Ford, you know--now putting a label of '77 on a '78 model--incidentally that has an interesting effect because they're going to have to sell it at '77 prices, they think.So it's actually coming on the market a little cheaper.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'It might be a good idea to extend the thing.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ZEISEL.', 'text': 'They do anticipate--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LILLY.', 'text': 'I was afraid they might see that.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ZEISEL.', 'text': ""They do anticipate action very soon on this legislation.And on the basis of our discussions with Detroit, we have continued to assume that the legislation will get out very soon and that they will be able to move on to '78 production on schedule.And they are making that assumption.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'At higher prices.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ZEISEL.', 'text': 'At higher prices.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'All right, thank you, Mr. Lilly.Mr. Winn now, please.'}]",no,,,,
302,304,19771018_111_4,MR. KICHLINE.,"""In our flow of funds forecast, we have the thrift institutions actually liquidating liquid assets to fund their outstanding commitments in the shorter run and relying quite a bit more heavily on Home Loan Bank borrowing.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Well, now wait, are you projecting significantly higher mortgage interest rates? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""Well, we have mortgage rates, for what they're worth, sort of middle of the next year in the 9-1/4 percent area, so up a quarter or half, depending on where you are in the country. But more importantly than just the rate constraint, we have implicit in our forecast what we believe to be some constraint on funds availability and that nonprice terms will probably be tightening, and that will tend to squeeze some potential borrowers out of the market. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""I'm a little puzzled. I would have said that, in view of the liquidity of the thrift institutions and their enormous borrowing potential from the Home Loan Banks, etcetera, I would not expect a shortage of funds, say, over the next 12 months, even if you have a significant reduction in the inflow of funds to thrift institutions. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Why do you say money--not much has happened to mortgage interest rates.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ZEISEL.', 'text': ""It's the projection.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'In the projection, Mr. Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""It's this bill rate""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'I see.Well, now wait, are you projecting significantly higher mortgage interest rates?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""Well, we have mortgage rates, for what they're worth, sort of middle of the next year in the 9-1/4 percent area, so up a quarter or half, depending on where you are in the country.But more importantly than just the rate constraint, we have implicit in our forecast what we believe to be some constraint on funds availability and that nonprice terms will probably be tightening, and that will tend to squeeze some potential borrowers out of the market.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""I'm a little puzzled.I would have said that, in view of the liquidity of the thrift institutions and their enormous borrowing potential from the Home Loan Banks, etcetera, I would not expect a shortage of funds, say, over the next 12 months, even if you have a significant reduction in the inflow of funds to thrift institutions.""}]",no,,,,
303,305,19771018_174_8,MR. WINN.,"""Now does this represent a shift in consumer preference towards lower prices, or [a decision that] a [used] car that only goes 20,000 more miles doesn't really need a 50,000-mile tire?""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'The six big, the big six countries, Germany and-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""That's what I assumed. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""We've used this trade weighted. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'All right. Mr. Winn. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""But one portion of the staff, in effect, suggests what the Rand Corporation study came to, which was that, if you impose a tax, it would do nothing in terms of the average level of retail prices; that, in effect, refiners are now paying the world price for oil, on average, and if approved, the well-head tax would do nothing.I guess I can't comment more than that, except that I'd be delighted to send around for your information the staff analysis of this particular argument.We can do that promptly.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""I'd like to see it.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Any other question, Mr. Black?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""I had just one minor one, Mr. Chairman, the question of the meaning of a chart back here on international [developments]; it's very minor.This second chart in international shows the ratio of foreign real GNP to U.S. real GNP.What is included in that foreign?What is included in that chart?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'The six big, the big six countries, Germany and--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""That's what I assumed.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""We've used this trade weighted.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'All right.Mr. Winn.'}]",no,,,,
304,306,19771018_188_2,MR. ZEISEL.,"""I certainly hope so.""","The second quarter was extremely weak, Mr. Chairman, and in real terms, personal consumption expenditures rose by less than 2 percent at an annual rate, and even with a reduced estimate for the third quarter, we probably may see a gain. I certainly hope so.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""That's right in terms of our projection. These are quarterly numbers, as you know, in the real personal consumption expenditures chart; the other numbers are plotted monthly. But indeed, on average in the third quarter, we anticipate that they will be higher. But I might note that the recent retail sales data for September, as Jerry mentioned, and the downward revisions for August were not available when we made the forecast, so that if we were to do it today with the information now available, we would have a lower third quarter. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""Yes, that's what I would think. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""We will get the Commerce Department figure on Wednesday, but we're running right now with our own estimate of the third quarter.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'So that the retail sales is a more current look, you mean?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""Yes, that's it; does the third quarter show an acceleration?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ZEISEL.', 'text': 'It shows an acceleration from the second quarter rate of increase, although not an extremely strong rate of growth in real personal consumption outlays.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'This chart shows the retardation through the second quarter, and then some acceleration starting with the third quarter.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""That's right in terms of our projection.These are quarterly numbers, as you know, in the real personal consumption expenditures chart; the other numbers are plotted monthly.But indeed, on average in the third quarter, we anticipate that they will be higher.But I might note that the recent retail sales data for September, as Jerry mentioned, and the downward revisions for August were not available when we made the forecast, so that if we were to do it today with the information now available, we would have a lower third quarter.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""Yes, that's what I would think.""}]",yes,no,,,
305,307,19780718_338_1,MR. MAYO.,"""Alternative C is acceptable to me, Mr. Chairman.""","Alternative C is acceptable to me, Mr. Chairman. I would not be in any hurry to get to 8 percent but if it comes naturally in the Desk's operations, I would just let the funds rate go to 8. I wouldn't want to see it go over 8; I would be a little uncomfortable about that without a meeting, but I think ""C"" is still my preference. And I would accept [the specifications in] ""C"" on the M1 and M2 ranges as well.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Roger. Bones. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KIMBREL.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I would like very much to see us continue to lean against the price trends. And I would like alternative C with the federal funds rate shown there, M1 at 4 to 8, M2 at 5 to 9, and an aggregates directive. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Bob Mayo. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'But to insure that we do indeed move if we have strong growth in the aggregates in the intermeeting period, the prescription that I would prefer is 4 to 8 on M1, 5 to 10 on M2, with the existing 7-1/2 to 8 percent funds range, but with an aggregates directive.That means, if I interpret it correctly, that if the July-August growth rate for M1 approaches 7 percent, for example, we would indeed move to 8 and quite likely we would be at 8 percent under those circumstances by this time next month.I think that would be all right, but I would hate to come out of this meeting moving to 8 percent.So, the important aspect of that, in my view, is that we have an aggregates directive with those ranges.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Roger.Bones.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KIMBREL.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I would like very much to see us continue to lean against the price trends.And I would like alternative C with the federal funds rate shown there, M1 at 4 to 8, M2 at 5 to 9, and an aggregates directive.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Bob Mayo.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,entailment,utterance
306,308,19781017_202_11,CHAIRMAN MILLER.,"""I'm just expressing my personal opinion.""","I understand you don't. I only look at the nominal interest rates and I know that we are getting very near the point where we will have results in the economy from interest rates. That's the way people behave. We can have a theory all we want. We can do it as gradually as we want but if we have to get 12 percent interest rates to do it, look at the chart over there. When we get that, that's when the recession comes because people get scared; rightly or wrongly, they do. And they did very quickly in that time period. That spike, that Mount Everest, stands out there as a warning to us. It has nothing to do with how gradually you try to [reduce the growth of the] money supply. It's how much you affect these other things. I'm just expressing my personal opinion. I think if we try to continue to accomplish this slowing in the rate of growth in money supply by driving up interest rates, we are going to trigger a reduction of consumption and buying and spending that will send us into a recession. And I think we will be back with $100 million federal deficits. And we won't have accomplished very much following that exercise before we have the highest federal deficits we have ever had, taking away all the monetary restraint that possibly could have been put into the system.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""And I would merely say to you that to find that soft landing, I don't know how much more we have to do. But I know that since we have seven years to do it, we'd do better to gently come at the problem rather than whack it too hard on the head and be sorry. Because once you trigger the point where the public gets scared and stops buying, you can't reverse it; [economic activity] will go [down]. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'But even the most ardent monetarists, Mr. Chairman, have spoken up consistently for a very gradual reduction. But I think we are interpreted by people who disagree with us as suggesting some precipitous reduction in the aggregates growth-- '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""The decision to authorize the money market certificate was a decision that cost us in these theories because we have maintained funds in the money supply that would have flowed out of the money supply and made us look better--if you want to measure by aggregate growth--if we had not done that.So by trying to maintain housing, we have worked against ourselves--in my view properly--because we now have a balanced economy in which nothing is dragging us down into a recession unless we find the place to crack it.The miracle is to have the Wallich soft landing.And I would merely say to you that to find that soft landing, I don't know how much more we have to do.But I know that since we have seven years to do it, we'd do better to gently come at the problem rather than whack it too hard on the head and be sorry.Because once you trigger the point where the public gets scared and stops buying, you can't reverse it; [economic activity] will go [down].""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'But even the most ardent monetarists, Mr. Chairman, have spoken up consistently for a very gradual reduction.But I think we are interpreted by people who disagree with us as suggesting some precipitous reduction in the aggregates growth--'}]",no,,,,
307,309,19781121_328_2,VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""In the short run, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that are broadly consistent with the longer-run ranges for the money aggregates cited above, while supporting the objective of stabilizing the foreign exchange value of the dollar.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'We did take the money market and we did-- '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I have a proposal but I don't [know] whether it's-- ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'On page 15? '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, on page 14 it refers to [the international situation]. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""All right, let's look at page 14. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Keep with the club.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""We've got a little bit more.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ALTMANN.', 'text': ""I didn't hear.Did he have an answer?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""He hasn't answered yet.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'He abstained.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': 'If we would vote for this, we would tolerate almost 12 percent growth in M1 in December before we move.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Assuming November is right.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""That's right.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Which we don't know.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""Which we don't know.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Well, just a minute now, Willis Winn.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WINN.', 'text': ""I'll go along with it.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Now Mark.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""Well, it's not December, but almost.I'll vote yes.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""A vote for Christmas.Thank you.I think that's the most marvelous vote I have had since I have been here.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'What about the language?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""We did take the money market directive, didn't we?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'We did take the money market and we did--'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I have a proposal but I don't [know] whether it's--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'On page 15?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, on page 14 it refers to [the international situation].'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""All right, let's look at page 14.""}]",no,,,,
308,310,19790206_320_1,MR. WALLICH.,"""Well, if Steve is right, we should have a month of very large increases [in monetary growth].""","Well, if Steve is right, we should have a month of very large increases [in monetary growth]. And it seems to me that that might very well trigger either a telephone conversation or--","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""If we lose the Merrill case, that will be our directive for the future. Go forth and do well and we'll be in touch. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""I think that's more of a description of how the Committee feels about all of these ranges because it seems to me that if we have a telephone meeting it will take something really tremendous to trigger us off the 10 percent [funds rate] in the next few weeks. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""That's not a bad point. Maybe we ought to have a directive that says we will even keel it and if there are any significant changes, we'll consult. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. EASTBURN.', 'text': ""If I interpret your recommendation right--and I would agree with you that we should keep it there--it seems to me that we can put any ranges in here that we want and we're going to peg the funds rate at 10 percent plusand we're going to have a telephone call if it varies.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Our directive would be even keel and we would [have a conference] call if we think a change [is needed].That solves our directive because it gets us ready for the Merrill case.If we lose the Merrill case, that will be our directive for the future.Go forth and do well and we'll be in touch.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""I think that's more of a description of how the Committee feels about all of these ranges because it seems to me that if we have a telephone meeting it will take something really tremendous to trigger us off the 10 percent [funds rate] in the next few weeks.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""That's not a bad point.Maybe we ought to have a directive that says we will even keel it and if there are any significant changes, we'll consult.""}]",yes,yes,,,
309,311,19790320_52_5,MR. BALLES.,"""Even if we look at the latest monthly growth numbers on MI, which includes all these money market funds, RPs, commercial paper, and so forth, the percentage growth now is less than half--or at least it's no bigger than half--what it was last fall.""",,"[{'speaker': 'M R . AXILROD.', 'text': ""So in that sense we could always have more money [growth] if the System were to provide reserves more aggressively and let interest rates go down in the short run. That's the way I would answer. [As for] whether it's a demand or a supply phenomenon, it's very difficult to disassociate the two. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'I have John Balles next [on my list] and then Larry Roos. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""If you go across to the fourth column, the staff is now saying 3.0 percent [for real GNP]; the Commerce Department projection is 1.4 percent.If you go across to the deflator, the staff has 9.6 percent and Commerce is now saying 10.0 percent.Now you can pursue your question, Dave.I didn't want you to get trapped, you see.""}, {'speaker': 'M R . EASTBURN.', 'text': ""I wouldn't have been if you hadn't given the figures !""}, {'speaker': 'M R . AXILROD.', 'text': ""President Eastburn, the only way I think I can answer is to say that, as you know, the System does no more than accommodate to whatever amount of money the public wants to hold at today's interest rates.So in that sense we could always have more money[growth] if the System were to provide reserves more aggressively and let interest rates go down in the short run.That's the way I would answer.[As for] whether it's a demand or a supply phenomenon, it's very difficult to disassociate the two.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'I have John Balles next [on my list] and then Larry Roos.'}]",no,,,,
310,312,19790417_200_13,CHAIRMAN MILLER.,"""We're going to have very little room for dissent when we're through here!""","On the top side we have three at 10-1/4 percent and everybody else is at 10-1/2 save Henry, who is at 10-3/4 percent. Have I misstated anyone's views? I think Henry is the only one at 10-3/4. As modified, John, you're 9-3/4 to 10-1/4; Bob [Black] had the same, 9-3/4 to 10-1/4. Phil and Bones had 10 to 10-1/2. Bob Mayo had the "" B "" range, which is the [current one of] 9-3/4 to 10-1/2 percent. Chuck had 9-3/4 to 10-1/4; Nancy, 9-3/4 to 10-1/2; Paul, 10 to 10-1/2; and Henry 10-1/4 to 10-3/4. That would indicate that something like 9-3/4 to 10-1/2 percent might fly. Let's put that down tentatively. There are lots of 10-1/2s on the up side; we're bracketing everybody, you see. We have nobody below [lo-1/2 percent] and only one over it. We're going to have very little room for dissent when we're through here!","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'John, you said 9-1/2 percent on the bottom side? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'Yes sir. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Could we get you up to 9-3/4 percent? Then we'll have six. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""Well, I'm a reasonable guy. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""It's 9-314 to 10-112 percent, but I wouldn't want to use the top quarter.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'I had the same specs as you did, Mr. Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'We have a very mixed bag.Paul, did you want a money market or an aggregates directive?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""[Given] the fact that we've been operating with a money market [directive], I presume we would continue to do so almost regardless of what we say here today.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""We keep saying we're doing something else, but we keep going with a money market directive, don't we?""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think that would be appropriate, yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Well, it's going to be hard to make anything out of this.Five have the bottom of the fed funds range at 9-3/4 percent--1 told you it would be five to five--and one has it at 9-1/2 percent.John, you said 9-1/2 percent on the bottom side?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'Yes sir.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Could we get you up to 9-3/4 percent?Then we'll have six.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""Well, I'm a reasonable guy.""}]",yes,yes,utterance,,
311,313,19790417_220_3,CHAIRMAN MILLER.,"""I knew we weren't going to get a vote today!""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'The rest is: M1, 3 to 8 percent; M2, 4 to 8-1/2 percent; and a money market directive. How many of the voting members do we have for that? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'An indication? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'An indication only MR. ALTMA"". None. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Eight are calling for that directly and one is near it.Put down 4 to 8-1/2 percent.There seemed to be a majority for a money market directive, which means it's all an exercise anyway.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'Is it 4 to 8-1/2 percent for both M1 and M2?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Let me see if I can read what I have here.This is very hard.Let's say a fed funds range of 9-3/4 to 10-1/2 percent and maintain the prevailing rate, which now is 10 to 10-1/8 percent--is that correct, Peter?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'Would you repeat that midpoint?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'The midpoint would be 10 to 10-1/8 percent, the prevailing level.The midpoint is slightly off center--asymmetric if you want to be technical.The rest is: M1, 3 to 8 percent; M2, 4 to 8-1/2 percent; and a money market directive.How many of the voting members do we have for that?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'An indication?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'An indication only MR. ALTMA"".None.'}]",no,,,,
312,314,19790522_320_7,MR. HOLMES.,"""A total of 5-1/2 billion Deutschmarks were involved in that and the Treasury had spent 1.2 billion of that amount in intervention earlier this year.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""I'm very sorry that we have no swaps to renew this month, Alan! ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': ""That's exactly what I was going to say! ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Well, I'm sorry. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': 'It is rather nice to be out of swap debt for the first time in almost ten years--the first time going back to the pre-71 period [unintelligible] Swiss franc debt. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': ""You're not going to retire on that note! ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'And the movement within the range would be based upon a money market directive.I shall vote for that.MR. AL""N. Vice Chairman Volcker Yes President Balles NO President Black Yes Governor ColdwellYes President KimbrelYesPresident Mayo Yes Governor ParteeNO Governor TeetersYes Governor WallichI wish I couldbut I can\'t.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Put down a maybe!Thank you very much, I think.I suppose we will be calling up for a new directive in the interim period.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Especially with a I-week interval.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Yes, I'm sure we will be.Now we'll move to consideration of the Manager's recommendations with respect to foreign currency operations.I'm very sorry that we have no swaps to renew this month, Alan!""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': ""That's exactly what I was going to say!""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Well, I'm sorry.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': 'It is rather nice to be out of swap debt for the first time in almost ten years--the first time going back to the pre-71 period [unintelligible] Swiss franc debt.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': ""You're not going to retire on that note!""}]",no,,,,
313,315,19790711_36_1,MR. COLDWELL.,"""It was just a happy coincidence that they happened to have securities to sell at a higher price.""",,"[{'speaker': 'M R . STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'Well, the downward movement was more than in just the short-term area. If anything it seemed to me the mortgage area was rather an exception in moving up a little further. We had rate declines in the long-term sector as well as in the short-term. I think it was more than just a day-to-day phenomenon. There was a feeling that the economy is likely to be weakening and that at some point the [long] rates are likely to be lower, although I would not say that there was an expectation of an imminent easing throughout [the yield curve]--just in terms of, say, the fed funds rate. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': '[Statement--seeAppendix.]'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Peter.Any questions or comments?Phil.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""Peter, as you've worked through this period and the seeming expectational swing of bringing rates down in the short area but up in the mortgage area, have you found any kind of fundamental thrust in this package?Or is this just sheer reaction on day-to-day operations?""}, {'speaker': 'M R . STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'Well, the downward movement was more than in just the short-term area.If anything it seemed to me the mortgage area was rather an exception in moving up a little further.We had rate declines in the long-term sector as well as in the short-term.I think it was more than just a day-to-day phenomenon.There was a feeling that the economy is likely to be weakening and that at some point the [long] rates are likely to be lower, although I would not say that there was an expectation of an imminent easing throughout [the yield curve]--just in terms of, say, the fed funds rate.'}]",no,,,,
314,316,19790711_55_12,MR. KICHLINE.,"""And it's quite clear to us that if we had lower rates of money growth over an extended period of time, we would get lower rates of inflation.""","No, that's all right. I think I know some of the people from St. Louis in a way that transcends what I might say here. All I can say to that is that my view is simply that monetary policy has an important role to play. The difficulty in this exercise is looking at alternatives within what I would consider to be a ""reasonable range,"" given past monetary policy responses. If, for example, one option were to reduce the stock of money 10 percent and run that way for 3 or 4 years, I would say we'd get tremendous impacts on the price front. We'd also have a depression, in my view. So, what is missing in this linkage is what happens to the real side and what happens to markets. It's that sort of thing that makes it difficult for me just to translate M1 numbers into rates of inflation. I certainly would not say that I believe money has no influence on prices. That's clearly not our view. It's really a longer-term effect in the way that we look at money affecting activity, which works through markets. And it's quite clear to us that if we had lower rates of money growth over an extended period of time, we would get lower rates of inflation. We'd also have other things happening, such as [effects on1 unemployment and real GNP, and I would presume other policy responses outside the control of the Fed.","[{'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'That would mean, if that is a valid assumption. that we still are in a position to affect this in a very real fashion by the decisions we make today. Are these guys way off base, do you think? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Well, I know some of those guys-- '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""It's perfectly all right to take the fifth! ""}]","[{'speaker': 'M R . KICHLINE.', 'text': 'If we had an ""easier""monetary policy, as indexed by faster rates of growth of M1, it would show up in our thinking in higher rates of expansion in real GNP in the short run--assuming we\'re not at capacity--tighter markets, and with some lag, more inflation.Trying to sort out particularly how much more inflation in this forecast is difficult.I really haven\'t thought of it in that way.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'Well, let me rephrase it, if I may.Our economists tell me that if one were going to quantify this, that perhaps 70 percent of our inflation is money policy induced, or a direct reflection of our monetary policy, that energy at its present dimension may be responsible for 1 percentage point of [the deflator] and food 1-1/2 to 2 percentage points.That would mean, if that is a valid assumption.that we still are in a position to affect this in a very real fashion by the decisions we make today.Are these guys way off base, do you think?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Well, I know some of those guys--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""It's perfectly all right to take the fifth!""}]",yes,yes,sentence,,
315,317,19791120_300_3,MR. SCHULTZ.,"""It seems to me that autos and housing are very weak and the rest of the economy continues to hang up there.""","I think the only economic law I believe in at this point in time is Murphy's Law. I don't know how human beings are going to behave in this particular period, so I'm torn. It seems to me that autos and housing are very weak and the rest of the economy continues to hang up there. I have a feeling that at some point that's going to change. Consumer attitudes are going to change and things are going to get pretty weak rather quickly; and I would like to be responsive when that occurs. On the other hand, it seems to me that we have some real dangers from oil and other exogenous shocks over the near term. I wonder what shape we'd be in if we hadn't taken the steps we took on October 6 , in view of what is happening in Iran. It seems to me that we'd be in pretty bad shape. So my feeling is that we have to continue to hold on to this [policy] a while longer and that puts me somewhere in between ""B"" and ""C."" I feel that Governor Partee's approach is a very reasonable one.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KIMBREL.', 'text': 'I\'d be happy to see that continue, even the 11-1/2 to 15-1/2 percent [federal funds range]. And I\'d prefer to see the borrowings more in the $1.8 billion [areal where I believe they are at the moment. So I prefer ""C"" with those [specifications] I\'d add. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Schultz. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KIMBREL.', 'text': 'Added to that is the significant concern and influence of the foreign exchange markets; the unsettled [conditions1 there at the moment are an added dimension that I think requires [concern] on our part.We recognize, too, that there\'s almost a belief that we will relax [our policy] too early.And that leads me to feel that the realities of our existence suggest that a continuation of our present policy may be easier now than possibly in 1980 when unemployment or other outside pressures are being brought to bear, even if inflation continues unacceptably high.So reading these numbers slightly differently from some of the others, 1 feel that alternative C is pretty close to where we are at the moment.I\'d be happy to see that continue, even the 11-1/2 to 15-1/2 percent [federal funds range].And I\'d prefer to see the borrowings more in the $1.8 billion[areal where I believe they are at the moment.So I prefer ""C"" with those [specifications] I\'d add.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Schultz.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
316,318,19791120_398_2,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""We just have to reach a consensus on how we phrase this.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""~ 2 therefore, , would be running even higher. That's the-- ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'But M2 is only going to go off track in the second half of the quarter. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'Because M1 is going to be pushed up '}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Yes, as I say, banks may not get all that [projected increase] in time deposits. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Similarly, if M1 were coming in on track and M2 were running very high, given the stress that we interpreted the Committee to be putting on M1, it would have been a question as to whether we would want to adjust the reserve path down for something like that.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Simply refresh my memory.I thought M2 was coming in more or less on track.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Then why is your projection higher than the track we estimated last time?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Because M1 is coming below.It's the relationship that seems to have changed.CHAIRMAN VOLCKER, M1 is coming in below but M2 is coming in on track.But your current projection for the quarter now is above the track.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Because we're pushing M1 up.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Because you're pushing M1 up.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""~ 2 therefore, , would be running even higher.That's the--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'But M2 is only going to go off track in the second half of the quarter.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'Because M1 is going to be pushed up'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Yes, as I say, banks may not get all that [projected increase] in time deposits.'}]",no,,,,
317,319,19800109_293_2,MR. AXILROD.,"""We showed the actual growth rate of M1 for 1979 of 5.5 percent and I meant to show also in parentheses, and did not, the growth of M1 as if there had been no ATS accounts.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""Therefore, I think we have to start with a low rate of money growth right away. I would say that 3 to 6 percent is a good starting point. If we went much higher than that, we'd be in immediate danger of getting into negative real interest rates with what they do to allocation of credit and inflation and the dollar. On the other aggregates, I'd like to see more clearly how they are likely to behave. But I think a fairly narrow [Ml] range like 3 to 6 percent, aiming at the midpoint of 4.5 percent and expecting that that really is a symbol for much more liquidity than it seems to give us, is the way to start. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""Now, as to action, I share the view that we shouldn't make a numerical commitment because the meaning of that commitment isn't clear enough, particularly if we had to start with a commitment that says 6 to 5 to 4 percent or 5 to 4 to 3 percent.I very much doubt that we'd hit that because circumstances could force us into a pro-cyclical pattern.We're not going to have the desire or ability to cut off a strong economic expansion, and we'll find ourselves being pro-cyclical.Therefore, I think we have to start with a low rate of money growth right away.I would say that 3 to 6 percent is a good starting point.If we went much higher than that, we'd be in immediate danger of getting into negative real interest rates with what they do to allocation of credit and inflation and the dollar.On the other aggregates, I'd like to see more clearly how they are likely to behave.But I think a fairly narrow [Ml] range like 3 to 6 percent, aiming at the midpoint of 4.5 percent and expecting that that really is a symbol for much more liquidity than it seems to give us, is the way to start.""}]",no,,,,
318,320,19800109_414_2,MR. WALLICH.,"""So we would have to anticipate the rise in the personal income tax as we cut back on the social security tax increase, if we didn't want to increase the deficit.""","We're talking about a shift of the social security financing from the payroll tax to personal income tax. So we would have to anticipate the rise in the personal income tax as we cut back on the social security tax increase, if we didn't want to increase the deficit.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'It would bother you if it were higher, right? '}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""Don't forget the $18 billion so-called tax cut is just not a tax increase. It's a funny tax cut. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""That should be offset or compensated for by a rise in the personal income tax, shouldn't it? ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'Pardon? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""That would mean we could avoid part of the increase that would be coming along this year because as of January 1 we did have about a $4,000 increase in the social security tax base and effectively for consumers that will come into play largely in the second half of this year.So, that's right.If you are talking about this, you do not think in terms of doing something eighteen months ahead but rather around mid-1980.That is when one would want to have this [lower tax become] effective.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""You have given us a scenario here of an $18 billion tax cut in social security taxes and something for business and you say, realistically, something for consumers, too.So I don't know how much above $30 billion you are.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""Well, I didn't recommend that.I said I think that's one of the facts of life.The number may go higher.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'It would bother you if it were higher, right?'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""Don't forget the $18 billion so-called tax cut is just not a tax increase.It's a funny tax cut.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""That should be offset or compensated for by a rise in the personal income tax, shouldn't it?""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'Pardon?'}]",yes,no,,,
319,321,19800205_274_2,MR. GUFFEY.,"""The staff's forecast is a bit more pessimistic than our forecast, and that largely centers on two differences.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. SMOOT.', 'text': 'There are a lot of marginal things that just add up to a somewhat more-- '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'If I understand you, your forecast has a tax cut in it? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. SMOOT.', 'text': ""Yes, we would anticipate one. I would also subscribe to Mark's comments that differences of 1/2 or 1 percentage point at this time really appear to be somewhat meaningless. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Guffey. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. SMOOT.', 'text': ""On the CPI, we'd say up 10 to 11 percent for the year, but if I read my own charts correctly we'd be closer to 10 percent in the fourth quarter.And on unemployment, consistent with our somewhat more optimistic view on the economy, we would be in the range of 7 to 7-1/2 percent.On the tax cut, we have considered a tax cut in the second half of the year in the range of $25 to $30 billion.I would agree with Governor Coldwell that it ought to be carefully constructed to stimulate capital formation and to look at the social security tax.Other than that, I don't find our differences with the Board staff to be that great.There are a lot of marginal things that just add up to a somewhat more--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'If I understand you, your forecast has a tax cut in it?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SMOOT.', 'text': ""Yes, we would anticipate one.I would also subscribe to Mark's comments that differences of 1/2 or 1 percentage point at this time really appear to be somewhat meaningless.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Guffey.'}]",no,,,,
320,322,19800205_276_15,MR. PARTEE.,"""I'd have inflation a little higher than the staff has--at 9 to 10 percent, say, for the deflator and 10 to 12 percent for the CPI in the year ahead.""","Well, I have been concerned about defense spending as a question mark in the outlook. I must say that the chart the staff has provided us, showing an alternative with $10 billion more defense spending this year and $20 billion more in 1981 and in 1982 on top of the 6 percent real growth that's already in there for nonpersonnel costs, strikes me as a good liberal estimate of the extra defense spending that might occur or that is possible in the short run. And I would point out to you that it doesn't change the numbers all that much. I believe they did this with the model, so it includes orders effects and that kind of thing--that is, effects that occur before the actual defense spending. So, both that and the fact that it seems to me to look a little less [tenuous] than it was a month ago make me feel that it isn't such a big possible plus in the economy in the immediate future as it might have been. Also, the saving rate is just very difficult [to forecast]. New York has a continuation of a very low saving rate throughout 1980 and one could argue that there has been a permanent shift in the saving rate. I don't think so. I think it's going to come back up. I agree with the staff on that. There is no evidence of a permanent move from money to goods of the kind that would be indicated by that. So, I come down to an expectation that real GNP will fall some this year, though probably less than the staff has [in its forecast]--maybe 1 to 2 percent. The employment rate I am quite sure will rise significantly because I just don't think it is possible that services and trade will continue to add to the employment rolls without output, without a commensurate value added, much longer. So a 7-1/2 percent fourth-quarter unemployment rate is probably a reasonable forecast. I'd have inflation a little higher than the staff has--at 9 to 10 percent, say, for the deflator and 10 to 12 percent for the CPI in the year ahead. As for fiscal policy, I think there will be a tax cut but probably not until next year. That's not as early as the alternative staff projection has it, which is the middle of this year. It probably will occur in early 1981, sometime in the spring, and it will improve 1981 results a little from what the staff has projected. But I would point out to you that I think an absolutely binding assumption on the recovery of the economy is the monetary assumption which, of course, we have the ability to control. Did I get everything on this [list]?","[{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'The CPI in our judgment, however, is going to continue at a fairly rapid rate. Our judgment is that it will still be in the 11 to 12 percent range in the fourth quarter. As to the fiscal side, obviously there will be much more expansion than the staff or the Administration are forecasting. And as to a tax cut, I would agree with whoever said it would be a tragedy. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Partee. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""One is the saving rate, which the Board staff's forecast suggests will increase over the coming year while we believe it will be either flat or at least at a low level, thus giving consumers the ability to maintain in part their standard of living even in view of heavy inflation.Secondly, we believe defense spending will be somewhat greater than the staff is forecasting for the year 1980 coming into the third and fourth quarters; it may be $2 to $3 billion larger in each of those quarters than the staff has projected, thus giving stimulus to the economy.As a result, we would see the real GNP at about flat, zero to maybe one percent on the positive side, with unemployment someplace between 7 and 7-1/2 percent.The CPI in our judgment, however, is going to continue at a fairly rapid rate.Our judgment is that it will still be in the 11 to 12 percent range in the fourth quarter.As to the fiscal side, obviously there will be much more expansion than the staff or the Administration are forecasting.And as to a tax cut, I would agree with whoever said it would be a tragedy.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Partee.'}]",yes,no,,,
321,323,19800205_374_9,MR. WILLES.,"""But the Bluebook says on the previous page that for the last six months M-1B growth has only been 6.1 percent, so the drop isn't as big as it might appear from the [table] on page 6.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Oh, I don't disagree with that. It's a question of whether one thinks this [degree] of weakness in the economy is reasonable. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""That's right. Now, what I find most puzzling--and I will copy one of Fred Schultz's lines, which I always thought was mine, and that is that I have a very simple mind-- ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'Well, some of us will agree with that! '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""Thank you, Mr. Chairman.I just couldn't disagree more with some of the comments I have heard and I agree entirely with some others.Chuck and I have this running discussion about how we finance nominal GNP.He has his view.My view is that if you try to do [it his way], you just chase your tail.If in fact there is a relationship between money and inflation, by persistently trying to finance nominal GNP we end up generating more inflation--even at an accelerating rate--which therefore we have to finance and so on.So I would hope we would not take that[route].""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Oh, I don't disagree with that.It's a question of whether one thinks this [degree] of weakness in the economy is reasonable.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""That's right.Now, what I find most puzzling--and I will copy one of Fred Schultz's lines, which I always thought was mine, and that is that I have a very simple mind--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'Well, some of us will agree with that!'}]",no,,,,
322,324,19800318_132_1,MR. AXILROD.,"""Well, our views are probably marginally different.""","Well, our views are probably marginally different. A difference is that I might allege that we could hit the total reserve path week to week. I don't think it's very important to do it, but we could without lagged reserve accounting. But we'd have to have very large movements in the federal funds rate because we'd have to force the banks, within the statement week, to adjust their deposits to the total reserves we'd put out there. We'd have to force them to do it. Without lagged reserve accounting that is possible. With lagged reserve accounting, that could also occur. If we allow enough pressure on the funds rate, they could make the adjustments in deposits but we just won't see it in total reserves until two weeks later. So within a very short-run period it would look as if we were missing our total reserves; but actually we'd be getting adjustments in deposits that would be [evident] in required reserves two weeks later and we'd really not be off very badly. We would just be over path for a while and then we'd be back on path. That's the essence of what Mr. Sternlight is saying and I wouldn't quarrel with that particular statement. Indeed, the money supply is coming back on target now, or seemingly so, if March turns out as we are projecting it. There has been a rapid response to the rise in the funds rate that has occurred, just as happened in October, which may be a coincidence or it may be that the lags [in response to changes in] the funds rate are not six months [but are closer to] one day. It's hard to believe the latter but something like that has happened for two successive periods. I am not sure whether I have answered the question, but I think I at least came close to it.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""Well, if I could, I'd just raise one more point. In asking my own staff to review what went on during that February period, it seemed pretty clear to us that the staff here and in New York had done a fine job of guessing what the multiplier was going to be, what the total reserves should be, and what the nonborrowed path should be. There was very fine work on that. Yet the net outcome was that total reserves got out of hand on the up side for a while. What I am trying to get to the bottom of, with the benefit of hindsight, is how you and Peter now think that could be headed off in the future. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'I think in February the alternatives before the Committee were: making an adjustment in the funds rate fast by raising the discount rate; making it more moderately by gradually lowering the nonborrowed path; or making it even more moderately by keeping the nonborrowed path and letting a gentle rise in borrowing take place instead of a rapid rise.What was actually done was to have a small rise in the discount rate and a reduction in the nonborrowed path, which was somewhere in between all those alternatives.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""Well, if I could, I'd just raise one more point.In asking my own staff to review what went on during that February period, it seemed pretty clear to us that the staff here and in New York had done a fine job of guessing what the multiplier was going to be, what the total reserves should be, and what the nonborrowed path should be.There was very fine work on that.Yet the net outcome was that total reserves got out of hand on the up side for a while.What I am trying to get to the bottom of, with the benefit of hindsight, is how you and Peter now think that could be headed off in the future.""}]",yes,yes,utterance,,
323,325,19800422_113_4,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Some people don't believe the underlying theory, so they have no reason to believe it.""","The only answer I could give you is that we would get a mixed reaction. Some people will believe it. People of monetarist persuasion will believe it more than others. Some people don't believe the underlying theory, so they have no reason to believe it. And there will be people in between. But I don't know whether there will be more or less [confusion]. There was certainly a lot of confusion in late November, December, and early January for a variety of reasons. People saw the reserve figures going up, which was one confusing aspect. The money supply figures weren't going up, particularly, but the reserve figures were; and interest rates were going down. We get all different constellations of events. But I think you are misled if you think that pure persuasion is going to convince people. It may have an impact, but we are going to get mixed reactions.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': '[Laughter] They are limited I would say. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': ""Are they limited, Paul, by the tradition of our taking an action and letting people decide what caused us to do what we did or are they limited for other reasons? I think your persuasive potential--and it isn't salary-setting time, so I'm not polishing the apple--is enormous. [Laughter] But I think the Fed has traditionally not used that potential in past years because we thought we should just take actions and let the people out there decide why we did. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""The only thing I can say is that, empirically, in recent periods when interest rates have gone down, we have had a great hue and cry in the market that may or may not have been rational.It has probably had effects on the thinking of those who spend and those who invest; and it has brought forth the view that perhaps inflation isn't going to be conquered.That just seems to be a market event and I wanted to bring it before the Committee.On your second question, since it was addressed to the Chairman--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""You don't want to express any judgment about the persuasive powers of the Chairman, Mr. Axilrod?[Laughter] They are limited I would say.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': ""Are they limited, Paul, by the tradition of our taking an action and letting people decide what caused us to do what we did or are they limited for other reasons?I think your persuasive potential--and it isn't salary-setting time, so I'm not polishing the apple--is enormous.[Laughter]But I think the Fed has traditionally not used that potential in past years because we thought we should just take actions and let the people out there decide why we did.""}]",no,,,,
324,326,19800422_160_6,MR. WILLES.,"""Therefore, it's a question of trying to minimize perceived risk.""","And 5 percent productivity [growth]. That doesn't hurt. It's a question of what leads what; and that's a whole other discussion, which I won't take time for. The only other thing I'd say, Mr. Chairman, is that I've listened to this discussion today with great interest and was particularly interested in the way Chuck posed the issue. As we look over the history of what the Committee has done, what the economic profession has done, and what the economy has done, it seems to me that we ought to have very modest objectives because it's not at all clear that we understand in a very detailed way how this complex system of our works and how we can intervene in such a way as to make it work substantially better. Therefore, it's a question of trying to minimize perceived risk. And it seems to us, given our current state of understanding, that the best thing we can do is to lay out for all the world to see a fairly simple policy procedure, a rule that we're going to follow. I think it's very hard to lay out such a rule in terms of interest rates because interest rates are subject to too many variables. But we can lay out such a rule in terms of the growth in the aggregates. It's not going to get us to heaven; it's going to have some undesirable consequences from time to time. But on average monetary policy is probably less disruptive if it is more predictable than otherwise. As a consequence, it seems to us that the decision we made last fall was a wise one and we ought to stick to it. And we ought to be rigorously consistent about that because at least over time, as the markets come to understand that we are going to be rigorously consistent, we will reduce substantially not only the risk associated with our own policies but the over-reactions that the market sometimes makes to their perception of our policy. So, as others have said, if interest rates are going to go down, I think this is one time when we just ought to let them go down because we've got to make sure that we establish the credibility in the basic policy thrust that we've been following.","[{'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""To some extent, profits have gone down. Also they have found reductions in energy utilization being forced by the policy and so on. There has also been a cut in real incomes because wages have not adjusted. They haven't allowed wages to [rise with inflation]. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'And 5 percent productivity [growth]. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""I promised my wife I'd be quiet today.But as long as you've given me the opportunity, I'll just make a few brief comments.We had Yoshiho Suzuki from the Bank of Japan in our Bank the other day and asked him to give a speech to some local people.It was very interesting to hear him in that speech analyze the Japanese experience where they have wholesale prices, because of oil imports, going up by about 24 percent and the consumer price index going up by about 7 percent.They in the Bank of Japan ascribe that to their willingness to hold firmly to fairly stable rates of monetary growth.We found that a pleasant message, as you can imagine, in Minneapolis.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Are profits being squeezed?Is that how that works?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""To some extent, profits have gone down.Also they have found reductions in energy utilization being forced by the policy and so on.There has also been a cut in real incomes because wages have not adjusted.They haven't allowed wages to [rise with inflation].""}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'And 5 percent productivity [growth].'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
325,327,19800709_489_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Well, I can't remember why either.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I'm not quite sure why we need anything in the directive. It's not a decision. This kind of vague statement isn't going to affect what we do before the next meeting anyway. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I'm told that my subommittee, of which you were a member at the time, proposed that it be in the directive. I can't remember why. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'It was somewhat in accordance with your talents: It was even more waffling than what Steve had to say!'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Steve is not waffling enough for me.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'I would like to waffle a bit more than what Steve said, and I thought you had done that very effectively.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'I could certainly agree with your waffle.Your waffle I like.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Has my waffle been recorded?'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': ""Just put a little syrup on it and we'll--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""That's what you're likely to do!""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Was somebody listening to that [closely] enough to try to [put some wording together] after lunch?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'I would suggest that your waffle, Mr. Chairman, is probably one that would fit better in the policy record.And the Committee could be silent in the directive.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I'm not quite sure why we need anything in the directive.It's not a decision.This kind of vague statement isn't going to affect what we do before the next meeting anyway.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I'm told that my subommittee, of which you were a member at the time, proposed that it be in the directive.I can't remember why.""}]",no,,,,
326,328,19800916_302_3,MR. AXILROD.,"""So in the Bluebook where we have the 7-1/4 percent [growth rate], that is the target necessary to hit a particular level over the year.""",,"[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'This difference in assumption has been there for two months now. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""I'm not sure exactly how that 7-1/4 percent got in there, but I probably ought to explain, President Mayo, that it is sometimes difficult to make a distinction between projections and targets. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': 'It may be a derivative figure. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'And what we have in alternative A is 7-1/4 percent growth in the fourth quarter, which would be the implicit target if you were going to hit 4-1/2 percent for the year. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': 'I see. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""But the difference is not in real GNP estimates.It's almost entirely in our assumption that there will be a reversal in the shift in money demand, wholly for transactions balances--that as people become increasingly sensitized to inflation they will reduce their holdings of non-interest bearing or low interest bearing transactions balances.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': ""I find myself much more comfortable with the New York figure.That doesn't mean--""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""On the other hand, let me point out that the Washington figures have been more correct than New York's for the last two months.This difference in assumption has been there for two months now.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""I'm not sure exactly how that 7-1/4 percent got in there, but I probably ought to explain, President Mayo, that it is sometimes difficult to make a distinction between projections and targets.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': 'It may be a derivative figure.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'And what we have in alternative A is 7-1/4 percent growth in the fourth quarter, which would be the implicit target if you were going to hit 4-1/2 percent for the year.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': 'I see.'}]",no,,,,
327,329,19801021_48_11,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""And they are prepared to do so if we agree in principle.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""We have this question of changes in the terms of the swap agreements on which we have a memorandum. Just by way of background, the Committee agreed to this in principle. I don't think it requires a formal action. In 1978 there was no formal action, was there? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ALTMANN.', 'text': 'No, not on these issues. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""But it requires some care, I think, not to accumulate large balances that in fact turn out to be, as on the down side, a resistance to the tide that really can't be resisted and then results in a large ultimate loss for the central bank.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARDEE.', 'text': ""It doesn't matter how much reserves you have; [what matters is] the determination that you're going to use them and the market's confidence that you're prepared to back your policies.You can have an infinite amount of reserves--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, let's take this up in a little more orderly way.We have to ratify the transactions since the meeting on September 16.Do I have a motion?""}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'So moved.'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Second.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Without objection, we shall approve them.You have no recommendation with respect to the swap lines, I take it, because we're out and the French [drawing] is not maturing.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARDEE.', 'text': 'Right.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""We have this question of changes in the terms of the swap agreements on which we have a memorandum.Just by way of background, the Committee agreed to this in principle.I don't think it requires a formal action.In 1978 there was no formal action, was there?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ALTMANN.', 'text': 'No, not on these issues.'}]",no,,,,
328,330,19801219_124_1,MR. PARDEE.,"""But it is important to know that the limit on how much we can buy in Deutschemarks, which is $1.5 billion, has been set by the Committee.""",,"[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'When Arthur Burns was here, he would sometimes give a daily limit to the New York Desk. He discontinued that after a while. But there is also some consensus between the Treasury and the Fed and the Desk as to some broad range of tactical day-to-day type limits. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""But those are tactical decisions, essentially. I believe we're clear now on the various types of limits that are in [place]. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'The Committee did it at its last meeting and the meeting before that.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'When you say informal, are those recorded [votes] or not?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ALTMANN.', 'text': 'No, they have not been formal votes and thus not recorded.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'The logic is that you had a formal vote on the overall limit [specified in the authorization].'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We have three types of limits: We have the limit on the overall authorization, which is [voted on] annually; we have procedural limits, which are in the procedural document and cover occasional and particular problems; and we have had discussions where we have informally set limits within those other limits.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'And there is a fourth set.When Arthur Burns was here, he would sometimes give a daily limit to the New York Desk.He discontinued that after a while.But there is also some consensus between the Treasury and the Fed and the Desk as to some broad range of tactical day-to-day type limits.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""But those are tactical decisions, essentially.I believe we're clear now on the various types of limits that are in [place].""}]",no,,,,
329,331,19810203_490_6,MR. BLACK.,"""But we wouldn't have the problem of the banks being able to borrow and [raise] the reserve targets.""","No, I'm not ruling that out; I recognize that there are slippages. But I think we'd come very close to hitting a total reserves target, particularly on a monthly basis. And I don't mean a flat, identical percentage increase each month. I think we would have to adjust that total reserves figure for the non-monetary liabilities and what they used up or released in the way of reserves. We'd have to construct the target path very much as we do now. But we wouldn't have the problem of the banks being able to borrow and [raise] the reserve targets.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""It seems to me, Mr. Chairman, that if we did this, we wouldn't have to go through the process of trying to estimate what the demand for money looks like, what it's shaped like, and all those things. We would make our best estimate of the reserves it takes to give us the [desired] growth in the aggregates. And what happens is that the demand for money, whatever the shape [of the curve] is, will determine the level of the federal funds rate. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, that implies that there's no slippage either in our estimates or in the linkage. And we just had this plus or minus 10 percent a month slippage. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'A lot.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""There's a long lead time.MR. CORRIGAN(?).And a lot of programming.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'That\'s what Milton Friedman calls ""bureaucratic difficulties.""'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""That's because he doesn't know the facts of life.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'Milton Friedman would argue that we should impose the least cost on the private sector, too, except in this case.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""It seems to me, Mr. Chairman, that if we did this, we wouldn't have to go through the process of trying to estimate what the demand for money looks like, what it's shaped like, and all those things.We would make our best estimate of the reserves it takes to give us the [desired] growth in the aggregates.And what happens is that the demand for money, whatever the shape [of the curve] is, will determine the level of the federal funds rate.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, that implies that there's no slippage either in our estimates or in the linkage.And we just had this plus or minus 10 percent a month slippage.""}]",no,,,,
330,332,19810203_902_12,MR. MAYO.,"""I would say that is fairly optimistic on spending cuts.""","Coming from what with due humility we consider to be the lousiest performing District--economically speaking we have a recession--what surprises me is that we don't have more difference with the staff forecast for the national economy. Actually we are right in the center of the range here, which I guess I can attribute to our native optimism that somehow some of this is going to work out all right or, to put it the worst way, that our bad performance this year in the Chicago District will somehow be offset by Jerry's great efforts in the great Northwest, Bill's down in the Southeast, and John's in California. We are just going to have to muddle through on this. I think it's too early to come to Lyle's conclusion that we haven't really accomplished anything. We have set in place a lot of things and, although I'm usually the one who is more despairing of what the Reagan Administration is going to be able to do in the next year, I find that some of the comments here today are just too pessimistic for me. If his initial effort looks too small, I think the President is going to have to get into entitlements and he'll figure that he has three years to reelection and will swallow some sort of change in the indexing provisions now. It's the only way out. Unfortunately, our very vigorous new Budget Director got off on the wrong foot by starting off with proposed big cuts in foreign aid and, bang, he ran right against the new Secretary of State. I submit that he picked the wrong horse to start his campaign. I think it would have been better if he had started on the domestic side, even though there is always a tendency for a Budget Director to start on foreign aid because it has no voting constituency. Anyway, I think he can get some spending down; I hope by as much as the staff forecast shows. I would say that is fairly optimistic on spending cuts.","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': ""That assumes that the Fed does its job on the monetary aggregates and further that eventually there is a change in spending and tax policy on stream that will have some favorable effects on the economy in real terms. And we think that by the end of the year the economy won't be booming but will be going along reasonably well, below the long-term growth path but in a positive vein generating growth of about 3 percent on average in the last two quarters with a reasonable unemployment rate and a lower level of inflation than we have right now. That [assumes] that we do what we say we're going to do on the aggregates and that people take seriously the need to reduce spending to keep the deficit under control. And we are assuming that they will. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Mayo. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': ""But we are on the lower end[of the range of forecasts] for both unemployment and inflation because we think there is a chance with the new Administration coming in that we will avert a recession during the first half of the year, contrary to the staff forecast.That assumes that the Fed does its job on the monetary aggregates and further that eventually there is a change in spending and tax policy on stream that will have some favorable effects on the economy in real terms.And we think that by the end of the year the economy won't be booming but will be going along reasonably well, below the long-term growth path but in a positive vein generating growth of about 3 percent on average in the last two quarters with a reasonable unemployment rate and a lower level of inflation than we have right now.That [assumes] that we do what we say we're going to do on the aggregates and that people take seriously the need to reduce spending to keep the deficit under control.And we are assuming that they will.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Mayo.'}]",yes,no,,,
331,333,19810331_446_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""I will tell you what my personal attitude toward setting those ranges is.""","I will tell you what my personal attitude toward setting those ranges is. I look at what the staff has to say, but I don't think that's the controlling thing. It's where do we want to have a consultation if it went either down or up, which may or may not be consistent with where the staff estimates that the market might bring it. Those estimates are not very good. They may be the best estimates that can be made, but I look at the range and say, as a first approximation: What level of interest rates might disturb us enough to want a consultation?","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'One is to project what interest rate level the staff thinks is consistent with these aggregate targets and set a range of plus or minus 2 to 3 percentage points around that. That would again be different than taking the current range, because we don\'t think the current range is particularly consistent except for ""A."" We have done that in the past under previous kinds of operating procedures. I have felt reluctant in general to make the range substantially different, even though our staff forecast might be substantially different in a sense, from where the Committee had been. So, what these ranges really represent is some skewing of the present Committee range; they are skewed to allow for where we think the funds rate will be, but there is more room on top because our projection is that, if anything, rates will go higher than where it appears the rate will start off and not that they will go lower. So, they\'re in some sense judgmental in that respect, trying to distend the existing range to make allowance for how we think the funds rate comes out of the analysis. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'One is to project what interest rate level the staff thinks is consistent with these aggregate targets and set a range of plus or minus 2 to 3 percentage points around that.That would again be different than taking the current range, because we don\'t think the current range is particularly consistent except for ""A."" We have done that in the past under previous kinds of operating procedures.I have felt reluctant in general to make the range substantially different, even though our staff forecast might be substantially different in a sense, from where the Committee had been.So, what these ranges really represent is some skewing of the present Committee range; they are skewed to allow for where we think the funds rate will be, but there is more room on top because our projection is that, if anything, rates will go higher than where it appears the rate will start off and not that they will go lower.So, they\'re in some sense judgmental in that respect, trying to distend the existing range to make allowance for how we think the funds rate comes out of the analysis.'}]",no,,,,
332,334,19810518_60_2,MR. PARTEE.,"""And that's always hard, indeed impossible, to predict or to time.""","Well, I don't think there's much downside risk either, except if there should be some unexpected financial difficulty that would lead to it. And that's always hard, indeed impossible, to predict or to time. I would agree with Lyle that the governor on the economy is monetary policy. And with emphasis on the aggregates, what we're really talking about is how high interest rates will go. But, of course, as they go higher, if they should go higher, the small business problem and the problem with housing and with automobiles and so forth will get greater and greater. Indeed, that's the disturbing factor about the economy. There doesn't seem to be too much effect in the soft goods sectors and certainly no effect in the defense area. There is a strength that could end up in a bad crash, I think, in nonresidential construction. I agree with Willis that there are a lot of problems that could develop there because there's an expectation that prices will go higher and that the properties will appreciate. If they don't, then there is no basis for the financing being done on them. So, the concern that I'm beginning to have is that to achieve the 9 percent nominal GNP that Lyle speaks of, we will have no activity to speak of in some sectors and hardly reduced activity in other sectors. The differential impacts are going to be very difficult to deal with. Henry made a good point a month or so ago, in a speech that I guess he didn't deliver, which is that there are two tiers in terms of interest rate effects. Those who don't pay 46 percent tax rates are hurt a lot more than those who do pay 46 percent. That's very consistent with the notion that small business is complaining, because they [don't] pay 46 percent tax rates. And it would be very consistent for any firm that is in a loss position to be badly hurt. It reminds me of the [adage] that the worst thing a bank can have is money--that the bank should get so that it doesn't have taxable income. The same thing is getting to be true of debt burden. The worst thing you could have, if you have any taxable income, is not to have a debt burden because then you don't have any tax write-off. So, I agree that we're in a fairly narrow range with very little chance of a sizable decline in the immediate picture and a good control over the expansion because monetary policy is well along the road toward being restraining. But as to the effect that this will have in the longer run, I'm certainly not prepared to say at this point.","[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""I also am asking myself: Why, in an economy in which no single thing seems to be outstandingly strong, is there so little room? Why, when we've got some distinctly weak sectors like housing and automobiles, has the economy been expanding so rapidly? Is it because the saving rate is so low that we're now at a much higher level of consumption than we normally would be so that leaves less room in the economy for other things and is squeezing things out? I find all these things difficult to reconcile, but there seems to be no doubt that the economy is not going down even moderately as much as thought; it may not go down at all and is overall very strong. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Chuck. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""Now, if we are looking at this first quarter, it really means that GNP from here on out will be about 1 percentage point higher than it would have been had GNP grown at something like 3 percent or so--spreading the difference roughly over the rest of the year, or dividing it by 4.So, the whole picture is somehow tighter.And that I don't quite see reflected in the capacity utilization or the unemployment figures; but it must be there.I also am asking myself: Why, in an economy in which no single thing seems to be outstandingly strong, is there so little room?Why, when we've got some distinctly weak sectors like housing and automobiles, has the economy been expanding so rapidly?Is it because the saving rate is so low that we're now at a much higher level of consumption than we normally would be so that leaves less room in the economy for other things and is squeezing things out?I find all these things difficult to reconcile, but there seems to be no doubt that the economy is not going down even moderately as much as thought; it may not go down at all and is overall very strong.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Chuck.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,,
333,335,19810518_306_9,MR. WINN.,"""That would not be very helpful in terms of our longer-run objectives.""","Mr. Chairman, there are several things we haven't really talked about this morning, including the international situation, the Middle East, and a number of other things that certainly could alter the outlook very quickly. A second point is that I'd be very happy if somehow we could get away from the check writing privileges on these money funds, because I think we are exposed there with the funds investing in issues that could go sour on them. We may have more volatility built into this than we are thinking about. The third is that we talk about targets as if they were fixed and we forget base-drift and a whole lot of history that goes into them. I'm not sure that hitting the midpoint of our new range is what we really ought to be doing. A little miss on the low side might be more helpful than misses on the high side. I'm disturbed by the M2 and M3 figures, which tend to go on the high side in this set-up. On the other hand, I have some sympathy with Lyle's point of view in that I'd hate to see us run the rates up and then run them right back down again. That would not be very helpful in terms of our longer-run objectives. To take a stance at this time, I would be content to be able to hit somewhere between ""B"" and ""C"" rather than to set a target and then be all over the lot in terms of our performance. I, too, would be inclined to raise the borrowing objective to help move in that direction; I'd go to $2.1 billion or something in that neighborhood as a first move.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Boykin. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I come down pretty clearly for ""C."" The arguments for that position have been stated and I will not take the time to restate them. But just by way of summary: The strength of the economy worries me; I wonder about the recent rapid growth in money and that it may not be temporary; also the expectations issue looms rather large in my thinking. I think it\'s important to have a continuously firm policy. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Winn. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'I can live with ""B,"" but I don\'t like it.I\'d much rather have the borrowing halfway between $2 and $2-1/2 billion.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That doesn't sound like such a weak approach.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'No, no.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'That borrowing [level] is pretty good.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""That's a $400 million adjustment right off.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""You're above--""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""Yes, but it's better than the [$2-1/2] billion that everybody else is talking about.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': ""[I don't think] that's right.I was starting at $2 billion and moving it up from there.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Yes, me too.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Boykin.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I come down pretty clearly for ""C."" The arguments for that position have been stated and I will not take the time to restate them.But just by way of summary: The strength of the economy worries me; I wonder about the recent rapid growth in money and that it may not be temporary; also the expectations issue looms rather large in my thinking.I think it\'s important to have a continuously firm policy.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Winn.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,entailment,
334,336,19810707_886_6,MR. ROOS.,"""So, I think they are two different things.""","If our primary purpose at this moment--maybe this isn't our purpose--is to impact inflationary expectations, we would have to announce, in understandable terms, a reduction in the rate of growth of the narrower aggregates. I don't think it's realistic to think that we can say we're only going to shade down M1--if we're going to call it that--very slightly because we think something is going to happen to a thing called velocity or the money demand function. When I read these financial letters, I seldom see any reference made to these more technical aspects of what we're trying to do. They talk about our published ranges in simple terms and whether or not they think we're going to be able to achieve them. So, I think they are two different things. The technical aspect of what we're doing is something different from the impact we're trying to make on inflationary expectations. And the latter has to be done in a simple manner and has to involve a discernable reduction in the actual figures from the current 3-1/2 to 6 percent to something that to less knowledgeable and less technically oriented people looks like a continuation of our resolve to reduce these ranges gradually.","[{'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'Well, I think you know that I have less and less confidence in M-1B; I give less and less weight to it. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""One thing that has been overlooked is the assumption that the inflation rate will be as high as the staff has said. If it's lower than that, one doesn't have to make such heroic assumptions about the increase in velocity. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""And if it's higher than that? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Well, then you have to be really-- '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""But you could also argue that M-1B doesn't make any difference.Whether our money supply comes in at 2 or 3 percentage points above what is otherwise stated, what difference does it make if we have more money or more velocity?It all accomplishes the same objective.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': ""No, I wasn't making that kind of--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'Well, you slip into that sort of argument that somehow the economy will always manage with whatever money we put out.If M-1B is that elusive in terms of its relationship with GNP, then the proper interpretation is that we ought not to be targeting M-1B. We ought to be looking at what we think is relevant.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'Well, I think you know that I have less and less confidence in M-1B; I give less and less weight to it.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""One thing that has been overlooked is the assumption that the inflation rate will be as high as the staff has said.If it's lower than that, one doesn't have to make such heroic assumptions about the increase in velocity.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""And if it's higher than that?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Well, then you have to be really--'}]",yes,yes,utterance,,utterance
335,337,19810707_941_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Yes, we will have a consultation before the testimony to confirm all of this.""",,"[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'We earn our salaries! '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I have a footnote in my mind to all of this, that if the figures for the next two weeks come out widely different than our current expectation, I think we need to have a consultation and relook at all these decisions. So, I will make a [mental] footnote. Maybe we ought to put in our record that we are going to consult at-- '}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'That will give you time before your testimony. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Are we at 6 to 9 percent?Oh, yes, it's the same.I see.So, 6 to 9 percent on bank credit.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""We don't have to vote on the whole package [for the two years] do we?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""At this stage, I think yes.It's clear that for 1981 there isn't going to be any change.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""Are we just voting for '82?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, let's do it separately.It might affect somebody's vote, I guess.Shall we formally vote on '81?All right, we will have a separate vote on '81.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'We earn our salaries!'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I have a footnote in my mind to all of this, that if the figures for the next two weeks come out widely different than our current expectation, I think we need to have a consultation and relook at all these decisions.So, I will make a [mental] footnote.Maybe we ought to put in our record that we are going to consult at--'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'That will give you time before your testimony.'}]",no,,,,
336,338,19811006_58_1,VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.,"""So, if we went ahead with came in again, would this change your attitude about giving one to""",,"[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Oh, I see, even though in practice there are no exchange controls on at the moment. Still, I don't think that ought to be the main reason for giving a swap line to Have they presented a reason other than prestige why they should have a swap line--a substantive reason? ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, the argument is that we turned them down ten years ago or thereabouts apparently on the basis that they were members of the sterling area and that they ought to look to London for assistance. They are no longer members of the sterling area so that reason is no longer valid for turning them down. They do have independent reserve management, and it would be of at least modest help to them in reserve management to know they have this backstop. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""They're not Article VIII?I thought Article VIII meant simply that a currency is convertible.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""That's right.And is not a convertible currency in that sense.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'I see.You mean there are certain types of formal exchange--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""Well, they haven't given up the right to have [exchange controls].""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Oh, I see, even though in practice there are no exchange controls on at the moment.Still, I don't think that ought to be the main reason for giving a swap line to Have they presented a reason other than prestige why they should have a swap line--a substantive reason?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, the argument is that we turned them down ten years ago or thereabouts apparently on the basis that they were members of the sterling area and that they ought to look to London for assistance.They are no longer members of the sterling area so that reason is no longer valid for turning them down.They do have independent reserve management, and it would be of at least modest help to them in reserve management to know they have this backstop.'}]",no,,,,
337,339,19811006_521_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""I'm not leaning either way.""",I'm not leaning either way.,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'If it reached 13 percent in mid-November and everything is weak, nobody is going to be disturbed about it. If it reached 13 percent two weeks from now, people would be disturbed. You have to assume a certain amount of competence, some minimum level, in the Chairman. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': ""That's the weak part of the whole thing! ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'Paul, I understood a while ago that you were leaning toward putting a numerical target in for M2, with cautionary language following it. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I would rather post it at 12 to 17 percent and just agree [on when to consult].I don't like the idea of narrowing this range to 4 points.We really are not supposed to be paying that much attention to it, although I know we are.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'Some of us are.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Would you have a consultation at 13 percent even though the range is 12 to 17?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Because it would be approaching it--moving down to 12 percent--and before it got there we would have a consultation.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""All right, that's a reasonable compromise.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't think we have to decide that with any precision.If it reached 13 percent in mid-November and everything is weak, nobody is going to be disturbed about it.If it reached 13 percent two weeks from now, people would be disturbed.You have to assume a certain amount of competence, some minimum level, in the Chairman.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': ""That's the weak part of the whole thing!""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'Paul, I understood a while ago that you were leaning toward putting a numerical target in for M2, with cautionary language following it.'}]",yes,yes,-5 sentences,,
338,340,19811117_198_15,MR. KEEHN.,"""I admittedly come from an area where there is a very heavy concentration of industries that have been most affected.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""They say: What can you do for us? And do it soon because if you don't do it soon, it's going to be too late. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'End of story? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'End of story. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Keehn. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""And while I certainly wouldn't want to see the extreme fluctuations in interest rates that we witnessed in 1980, I don't see very much risk of that happening in late 1981 and early 1982.Maybe I've been brainwashed by being too close to the forest products industry, but I recently appeared on a panel discussion along with Henry Reuss and they were ready to hang me in effigy, Mr. Chairman, instead of you, maybe as your proxy.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': ""That gives [unintelligible] more important.If they hang them all, that's all right.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""To Henry's credit, I'm glad to say that he supported what we have been doing.He said it was necessary and was what just had to be done.That was a pleasant surprise; I didn't have to fight with him.But I'll tell you, I do have to fight with the builders and the forest products people who say they are bleeding to death or hemorrhaging.They say: What can you do for us?And do it soon because if you don't do it soon, it's going to be too late.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'End of story?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'End of story.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Keehn.'}]",no,,,,
339,341,19820202_203_2,MR. AXILROD.,"""That is one of the reasons we thought [M1] would grow in November and December, way back when.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""On the household-type checking accounts, NOWs and so on, we really don't have much to add. In our area, in terms of Frank's point, we too didn't see many new accounts. It was all existing accounts. The bankers and others we talked to basically made the argument that we have some kind of precautionary phenomenon here, some of it related to the economy and unemployment, some of it related to uncertainties about the interest rate outlook, some of it maybe related to savings flows themselves, and some of it--at least in the case of our own employees in the Bank, based on a little informal survey we did--related just to a desire to build up larger balances to pay off bills incurred in December faster than they might ordinarily do. That's about it. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""Certainly in our case we were able to find on the business side patterns of window-dressing by large corporations that involved larger amounts of money than both they and their bankers said had been typical in earlier years.And that phenomenon was very short-lived, which of course is compatible with the idea of that big bulge in business-type checking accounts in the first week with washouts in the next two weeks.On the household-type checking accounts, NOWs and so on, we really don't have much to add.In our area, in terms of Frank's point, we too didn't see many new accounts.It was all existing accounts.The bankers and others we talked to basically made the argument that we have some kind of precautionary phenomenon here, some of it related to the economy and unemployment, some of it related to uncertainties about the interest rate outlook, some of it maybe related to savings flows themselves, and some of it--at least in the case of our own employees in the Bank, based on a little informal survey we did--related just to a desire to build up larger balances to pay off bills incurred in December faster than they might ordinarily do.That's about it.""}]",no,,,,
340,342,19820330_628_2,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""I don't have to repeat it again.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'For the quarter, it\'s ""around"" 8 percent. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""Oh, that's okay. That's March to June you are talking about? ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I interpret ""around"" to mean that I would not be very upset if it went a little above 8 percent for the quarter. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'I would not be either on that [aggregate]. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'You know the Solomonic decision is to cut the baby in half.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, just so I understand the M2 for April.Left to our own devices, if the Committee adopted 8 percent for M2 growth, we would put in a 9-1/2 percent for April and a 7-1/2 percent for May.That's what falls out of our patterns.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I'd put it a little lower in April.It is just so close, what difference does it make?Put in 9 or 9-1/2 percent; you are not going to judge it that finely anyway halfway through the month.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'No.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'All right.Is it understood or shall I run through it again?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Is the M2 figure 8 percent?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'For the quarter, it\'s ""around"" 8 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""Oh, that's okay.That's March to June you are talking about?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I interpret ""around"" to mean that I would not be very upset if it went a little above 8 percent for the quarter.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'I would not be either on that [aggregate].'}]",no,,,,
341,343,19820518_259_3,MR. ROOS.,"""Even if money growth from April to June is zero, second-quarter growth of M1 will be somewhere between 3 and 4 percent.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""I'm really just not certain, President Guffey. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'Well, just in conclusion: ""B"" is attractive to me, and my own feeling is that a path built upon these dimensions will give us a lower funds rate rather quickly, which will give the kind of relief that I think some around the table are suggesting may be necessary. I would hate for us to give up the quarterly target [for M1], however, at the 3 percent level. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Roos. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""May I just make one comment that I think is relevant, particularly in this recent environment?What we have experienced very recently is a little less borrowing and the funds rate just coming down.Before that we had a higher funds rate than we thought [likely] for the level of borrowing.I'm not at all certain that the banking system feels that eager to borrow.If we ever got into a liquidity pressure situation, it may be that they'd want to store up their goodies a bit.So, I'm not exactly certain.It could go that way.I'm really just not certain, President Guffey.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'Well, just in conclusion: ""B"" is attractive to me, and my own feeling is that a path built upon these dimensions will give us a lower funds rate rather quickly, which will give the kind of relief that I think some around the table are suggesting may be necessary.I would hate for us to give up the quarterly target[for M1], however, at the 3 percent level.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Roos.'}]",no,,,,
342,344,19820701_48_6,VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.,"""Stepping back, I think it's worth mentioning that our forecast is significantly different from Jim's.""","Well, since I agree with Lyle's presentation, let me try and answer that last question, or at least give my personal view on it. My own view is that we should say that we would tolerate a modest or limited overrun in view of the NOW account behavior, that is NOW account funds not acting as transactions money. The reason I think we should choose that rather than either of the other two options--rebasing or raising the targets--is first of all that raising the target a half point to 6 percent target implies a precision that is almost ridiculous, given the possible swings in velocity in the second half of the year. If we were seriously considering 6-1/2 percent, that might make more sense. But I don't see the point of changing the targets a half point when I think it would be more consistent and better received in the markets if we simply indicated that we would tolerate a modest or limited overrun in view of the NOW account behavior. Stepping back, I think it's worth mentioning that our forecast is significantly different from Jim's. We have significantly higher real growth in the second half and significantly higher inflation. We are almost 1-1/2 points higher on real growth, at 3.9 percent, and almost 2 points higher on inflation. We think inflation will be about 7.3 to 7.5 percent.","[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""In trying to provide some way to let money grow a little faster, we ought to look over all the alternatives. One of them is to raise the targets for 1982; another is to leave them where they are but make a clear, public announcement that we're going to permit money growth to exceed that target for reasons having to do with liquidity preference or for technical reasons. The third--and here I think one can make an argument with some cogency that perhaps the idea of continuity of policy over a longer period working toward lower growth of money and credit and toward reducing inflation--could best be presented if we rebased our money growth targets for 1982, taking into account the fact that we undershot so much last year. But again, I don't know which way we can do this and best maintain credibility. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Solomon. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""We can't solve all these problems, but I think we can help to solve one of them.And that is that we have more restraint on the [economic] system from the monetary side than we want at the moment.In trying to provide some way to let money grow a little faster, we ought to look over all the alternatives.One of them is to raise the targets for 1982; another is to leave them where they are but make a clear, public announcement that we're going to permit money growth to exceed that target for reasons having to do with liquidity preference or for technical reasons.The third--and here I think one can make an argument with some cogency that perhaps the idea of continuity of policy over a longer period working toward lower growth of money and credit and toward reducing inflation--could best be presented if we rebased our money growth targets for 1982, taking into account the fact that we undershot so much last year.But again, I don't know which way we can do this and best maintain credibility.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Solomon.'}]",yes,no,,,
343,345,19820701_222_2,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Now, whether we actually will extend any money before the weekend is something of an open question.""","In the absence of any objections, we will approve it. Now, whether we actually will extend any money before the weekend is something of an open question.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'They are not admitting that they will have to. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': ""They'll have to. VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON(?). Okay, I move it. ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'Second. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'And they say they expect to repay it next week.But they will be back.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""It's a futile question.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Are you going to be coming back to the full Committee every single time if they repay?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'No.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': 'What about making the line bigger?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""That's what I was wondering about--whether that would be the next request.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That may arise, but we don't have to face that now; that question has not been raised.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'That would be equally misunderstood.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't think we want to volunteer it.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Oh, no.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'The question has not been raised.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'I think we should approve it based on the record of other countries with a resource base like Mexico who have finally gone kicking and screaming or however to the IMF and proceeded within certain constraints.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'They may not go to the IMF.But what they are saying is that they will go to the IMF if they have to.They are not admitting that they will have to.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': ""They'll have to.VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON(?).Okay, I move it.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'Second.'}]",no,,,,
344,346,19821005_175_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Let me say in that connection--and I should have said it more clearly before--that I think this situation is manageable.""","Let me say in that connection--and I should have said it more clearly before--that I think this situation is manageable. In a very big sense, I think we are on the verge of victory in what we've been trying to do. It's a delicate situation, but it's also a very risky situation.","[{'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'How do you respond to that? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, with difficulty. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Very carefully. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Obviously, you give some sense of confidence as best you can. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Say ""I have another appointment."" '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""These are in theory governmental matters and in our institutional structure more appropriate for the Exchange Stabilization Fund than for the Federal Reserve.I think the Treasury would say that, too.But they have concerns and limited amounts of money, and at some point I think it's possible that we will have to make a decision within the confines of this room as to whether we contribute to them too, simply in order to get the money big enough.And that raises issues that we have not had to face before--except perhaps marginally in the case of Mexico.I don't know if it's going to come up; I hope it doesn't.My position is that it should not come up.On the other hand, I cannot exclude it, given the nature of the problem.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'How should we respond, if we are on the speaking circuit and are asked what our impression is of the international situation?How do you respond to that?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, with difficulty.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Very carefully.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Obviously, you give some sense of confidence as best you can.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Say ""I have another appointment.""'}]",yes,no,,,
345,347,19821005_605_6,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""So, I think it works both ways.""","Well, I think one can interpret it either way. The reason we're concerned about this is because of the economy. But it also works in reverse. The economy, and the international economy in particular, is giving rise to the pressures. But we're concerned about the pressures because of economic conditions. So, I think it works both ways.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Then ""in the light of"" is not quite right, is it? We mean ""resulting from"" or ""flowing from"" or something like that. I thought ""in the light of"" meant we were doing this because of the poor economy. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""That's what I thought. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'But you are saying credit conditions are affected by-- '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'My point, Tony, is that the phrase ""in the light of current economic conditions"" as it stands there is a very neutral one and, in my mind, too weak.I would like to see something like ""in light of the currently weak economy"" or whatever, unless that is going to be made clear somewhere else.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Well, that's what I thought was going to be made clear earlier.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, there would be a little more emphasis earlier.Obviously, that phrase is a term of art.What it is meant to refer to is the fact we have some pressures in private markets that aren't necessarily apparent on the surface because of all this disturbance in the financial system and we are aware of it and concerned about it.And we take that into account in the--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Then ""in the light of"" is not quite right, is it?We mean ""resulting from"" or ""flowing from"" or something like that.I thought ""in the light of"" meant we were doing this because of the poor economy.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""That's what I thought.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'But you are saying credit conditions are affected by--'}]",yes,no,,,
346,348,19821116_98_2,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""If there is a lot of discomfort about doing it today, it will be done presumably on Thursday or Friday.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'I think you should do a mixed bag of short-medium- and long-term issues. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""Well, Governor, when we buy coupons it is just that. It's not all long-term bonds. We buy the whole range of coupon issues. To intermix bills and coupons I think would be a terribly cumbersome, totally novel, excursion in the market. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""So, if we don't buy coupons, we'd probably want to do another sizable purchase of Treasury bills.It would be somewhat of a surprise to the market for us to do that because they have come to expect that after doing some sizable bill buying for a while we would intermix that on occasion with coupon purchases.I think they would take it as a deliberate shunning of the coupon market if we didn't get in there.I don't think it absolutely has to be today; it seems like the most logical day to me from the standpoint of our reserve needs.If we did it tomorrow, then people could read that even more in the context of the Committee meeting than if it is being done on the day of the meeting.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'I think you should do a mixed bag of short-medium- and long-term issues.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""Well, Governor, when we buy coupons it is just that.It's not all long-term bonds.We buy the whole range of coupon issues.To intermix bills and coupons I think would be a terribly cumbersome, totally novel, excursion in the market.""}]",no,,,,
347,349,19821116_263_11,MR. RICE.,"""If we wait too long, we may not make effective use of this credibility.""","I'd like to join all those who feel that interest rates need to come down from their current levels for all the reasons that have been given, both domestic and international. I won't try to go through all those reasons again. I'd just like to say that it's clear to me that real rates are too high to permit a recovery and, therefore, they have to come down from where they are at present. Like Governor Gramley, I don't know to what level they need to come down. And for that reason we ought to try to get them down gradually. We ought to be careful not to overdo it. But at the same time I think we have to do what we can to move rates in the right direction--downward--but gradually. I also agree with Governor Wallich that we have a limited amount of time during which we will be able to maintain our credibility and we ought to use that time wisely. The clock is ticking and we don't want to wait too long to have some effect on the current situation. I would conclude that we had better use some of that creditability soon in order to encourage recovery while we have time. If we wait too long, we may not make effective use of this credibility. Therefore, I would support alternative A in the belief that that will encourage a gradual decline in rates. I also think, if I understood correctly, that alternative B would not result in any decline at all in interest rates from their current levels. Is that correct, Steve?","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't know whether that helps you. You pay your money and take your choice! It comes down to balancing out, as so many people have said, the need for providing some protection on the down side, so to speak, against the danger that it's possible to overdo it, as Larry Roos keeps reminding us. The way to reach that judgment is what we're trying to do today. Governor Rice. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'There has been a shift toward things that have a market rate of interest.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'It is rather interesting.Nothing could have been much steadier than the growth in M2 over the past three years while all this other stuff has been going on.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'And we are going to have the same amount of overrun this year as last year.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""We keep the target the same and only slightly overrun it.One would certainly think, given that inflation is down, real growth is down, and nominal GNP is down, that if M2 growth remains at the same rate, obviously something structural is going on.But this year it must be something cyclical, too.I don't know whether that helps you.You pay your money and take your choice!It comes down to balancing out, as so many people have said, the need for providing some protection on the down side, so to speak, against the danger that it's possible to overdo it, as Larry Roos keeps reminding us.The way to reach that judgment is what we're trying to do today.Governor Rice.""}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
348,350,19821221_5_1,MR. STERNLIGHT.,"""I can do mine now, Mr. Chairman.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Then we will go to Mr. Axilrod who will talk about the short-run problem but in the context of the longer-run problem. We will then discuss the longer-run problem and come back to the specifics of what we want to do, which would be tomorrow, if that is agreeable. I don't know if it's more logical or not but for some reason it seemed to me it might be more logical. We could wait for [the Managers' reports] tomorrow or we could do that now. Why don't we-- ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I thought we might change the order [of the agenda] a bit today since the short run blends into the long run and the long-run view may affect the short-run view.I thought we would first approve the minutes anyway.'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'So moved.'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Seconded.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Without any objection, we'll approve the minutes.I thought we might have the business description first, if Mr. Kichline is ready, and have whatever discussion you want of the business[situation and outlook].Then we will go to Mr. Axilrod who will talk about the short-run problem but in the context of the longer-run problem.We will then discuss the longer-run problem and come back to the specifics of what we want to do, which would be tomorrow, if that is agreeable.I don't know if it's more logical or not but for some reason it seemed to me it might be more logical.We could wait for [the Managers' reports] tomorrow or we could do that now.Why don't we--""}]",no,,,,
349,351,19821221_95_1,MR. CORRIGAN.,"""I guess I understand.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""[in such a way as] to have a massive effect in the short run. If we assumed that in the short run there was nothing we could do about money market funds and all that and that all we could affect was the demand deposits subject to reserve requirements, then we could construct the path in such a way that when money funds went up we would force all this money out of demand deposits. Then the reserve requirement we are dealing with is 10 percent and we wouldn't be trying to affect everything proportionately because we wouldn't believe that's what would happen in the short run. If we did that, of course, we would get massive interest rate effects in an effort to control it. That's what led us to suggest a shadow of 3 percent or something in between. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Well, if it has a lot more interest elasticity one might have to see; if it doesn't, then it's not going to be.But one can go into that problem another way, too.We used the 2 percent, but it's an open question as to what really will happen in the short run.We could do this[in such a way as] to have a massive effect in the short run.If we assumed that in the short run there was nothing we could do about money market funds and all that and that all we could affect was the demand deposits subject to reserve requirements, then we could construct the path in such a way that when money funds went up we would force all this money out of demand deposits.Then the reserve requirement we are dealing with is 10 percent and we wouldn't be trying to affect everything proportionately because we wouldn't believe that's what would happen in the short run.If we did that, of course, we would get massive interest rate effects in an effort to control it.That's what led us to suggest a shadow of 3 percent or something in between.""}]",no,,,,
350,352,19821221_144_1,MR. ROOS.,"""Well, we may be between a rock and a hard place.""","Well, we may be between a rock and a hard place.","[{'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': ""But I fall out with some of this reasoning in that I believe that if the markets get the impression money is growing too quickly, interest rates are going to shoot up and we're going to be faced with-- ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""But that is what I'm addressing myself to. If markets have that impression, some people anyway are going to be nervous; I think they are today. But suppose we were in this dilemma where money has to grow faster to keep the GNP up. What are you going to do? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': ""So, if it didn't perform in accordance with our desires, it may be that we didn't lean on it to the extent that we should have, but anyhow--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Suppose it is true, Larry, that we can make it perform just the way we want.Say we put a target out there and we are right on the target with M1 but the unemployment rate is at 20 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': ""You pointed out in a very persuasive way at the last meeting that it was a matter of choosing risks, and I would agree with you.But I fall out with some of this reasoning in that I believe that if the markets get the impression money is growing too quickly, interest rates are going to shoot up and we're going to be faced with--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""But that is what I'm addressing myself to.If markets have that impression, some people anyway are going to be nervous; I think they are today.But suppose we were in this dilemma where money has to grow faster to keep the GNP up.What are you going to do?""}]",yes,yes,-5 sentences,,
351,353,19821221_405_12,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""In fact, the existing $1-1/4 billion of the first section of Treasury money is to be [repaid] quite promptly out of the Fund drawings in a matter of weeks, if all goes well and according to plan.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""But that's the general strategy. On Brazil, which is not irrelevant even though we have no money in there, the Treasury lent them $1-1/4 billion a couple of weeks [ago], which is the total amount of the Fund compensatory finance and first tranche-- ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': 'Gold tranche. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'Gold tranche, reserve tranche. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""But they already have [commitments for] basically more than $4 billion except that some of that is contingent on getting more, so it's not perfectly clear yet.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Some of it is contingent also on not triggering the 1 percent SEC disclosure requirement; some of it is contingent on not exceeding the legal limit; most of it is contingent, in theory at least, on everybody else putting up their share.Certainly the IMF would accept $4-1/2 billion; whether they will accept significantly below $4-1/2 billion is the question.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't think the IMF has said they would accept $4-1/2 billion except as a starting point--that they might go ahead temporarily if Mexico will be getting the rest later.Well, we just have to wait and see.But that's the general strategy.On Brazil, which is not irrelevant even though we have no money in there, the Treasury lent them $1-1/4 billion a couple of weeks[ago], which is the total amount of the Fund compensatory finance and first tranche--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': 'Gold tranche.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'Gold tranche, reserve tranche.'}]",no,,,,
352,354,19830329_617_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Well, it's not low relative to what it has been in the past when currency wasn't going up this rapidly.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'Maybe the recovery in the underground economy is stronger than-- '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'A very radical difference. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""That won't even show up in Frank's statistics. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': ""Just thinking about it in terms of a priori logic, with real interest rates coming down, I don't see that the cost of holding cash has changed that much in favor of using more cash. So that wouldn't be a [reason]. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""We've looked to see whether there is anything unusual for which we have any specific evidence.They tell me we have no evidence.Now, that doesn't tell us how many Latin Americans may be holding money in the United States in a safe deposit vault, but we haven't any evidence of it flowing in.Maybe it is, but we have no evidence.It's a very surprising development.I don't know why it would go in that direction; I can understand Latin Americans buying dollars, but we haven't any specific evidence of that.I don't know why they should be doing what Mr. Corrigan says.All I know is that the [currency growth] figures show a big bulge.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'Maybe the recovery in the underground economy is stronger than--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'A very radical difference.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""That won't even show up in Frank's statistics.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': ""Just thinking about it in terms of a priori logic, with real interest rates coming down, I don't see that the cost of holding cash has changed that much in favor of using more cash.So that wouldn't be a [reason].""}]",no,,,,
353,355,19830524_217_8,MR. PARTEE.,"""And this may be now a world-wide event.""","Well, to give my conclusions first, I would lean toward snugging up a bit now. I also think that we are going to have a couple of good quarters in GNP; the dynamics are such that I don't know what might come from that in terms of later on and, therefore, I think a little precautionary snugging would be in order. I would also point out that Ml is very much a fact, whether we want to look at it or not. The only way that we can really deal with this would be to stop publishing Ml--suppress the numbers on the basis that Ml has no information content--and I don't think anybody would propose doing that. It is something that people look at. I am also impressed by this world-wide increase in M1 that has occurred over the last six months and it may be telling us something after all, as Ml was telling us something three or four months ago about a recovery that was stronger than almost anybody expected. Now, it didn't come in anything like as strong as normal relationships would have predicted, but in fact the economy acted more like Ml would have suggested than most judgmental forecasters would have expected three, four, or five months ago. And this may be now a world-wide event. I also have a problem because I don't trust any of the other aggregates. M2, I think, is very much affected by the IRA/Keogh accounts, which are a direct substitution in the short run for tax-exempt savings balances. M3 reflects the pattern of demand on the markets, and I think it is a simple reflection of the fact that corporations are trying to do some restructuring. I have always been more comfortable with total credit but what I am not comfortable with about total credit is our estimates. Just a couple of months ago we were told that, by golly, total credit is running very low--well below the lower end of our range. Now, somehow, in the last six weeks, we learn that no it isn't; it is 9-1/2 percent, which is up in the range. And by the time we get another iteration of that, when the July national income numbers come out, we may find that it is at the top of the range. It is a very unstable figure from the standpoint of estimation even though it is a pretty stable figure from the point of view of its relationship to the economy. So, I don't think we can disregard Ml and I don't think we can disregard the fact that the economy seems to be pretty strong under foot. Therefore, I would snug up without changing operating procedures--which I think is what Ted Roberts was really proposing in taking Ml [into account] as a driver on providing reserves again. I'd snug up to maybe $300 million [on borrowings] and try to come in on the low side of alternative B on the aggregates.","[{'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""The other thing that I think is probably going to happen is that with the reduction in the first-quarter GNP we are going to have a quarter--probably the second or third, as Chuck said--in which the inventories will go in the other direction, and we could get a very strong one-quarter [expansion]. If that happens, I hope that we won't panic and then raise the rates in order to offset something which is a perfectly natural development. If anything, I would like to see the borrowings around $200 million rather than $250 million. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Partee. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""I have many of the [worries] that have been expressed, particularly in the international scene.And I don't think we can get a sustained recovery with 8-1/2 percent rates of interest and 10-1/2 per cent in long-term rates.I think rates should be lowered in order to sustain the recovery; I can stay where we are at least until July, but my presumption is that sometime over the next several months we are going to have to lower the rates in order to keep the economy going.The other thing that I think is probably going to happen is that with the reduction in the first-quarter GNP we are going to have a quarter--probably the second or third, as Chuck said--in which the inventories will go in the other direction, and we could get a very strong one-quarter[expansion].If that happens, I hope that we won't panic and then raise the rates in order to offset something which is a perfectly natural development.If anything, I would like to see the borrowings around $200 million rather than $250 million.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Partee.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,,utterance
354,356,19830713_483_1,MR. GRAMLEY.,"""The arrow is nice and straight; we just don't know which way it's going.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""Let me call your attention, if I might, to the last sentence in Dave Lindsey's memo in which he says it's not clear that Vl will be less predictable over time than V2 even though Vl may take on behavioral characteristics that are different from earlier postwar years. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""That's faint praise, though. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I absolutely agree with that; I think that's just what Paul said. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""It has been more predictable over most of our history; it may not be in the future, but I believe the burden of proof is on those who say it won't be. That's a biased viewpoint, as you all probably can guess. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'I agree with that very much.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""We don't know precisely, but what I'd be inclined to say is that the 3 to 4 percent increase in velocity that we counted on we no longer count on.SEVERAL.Right.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""We know in any event that this is a function of interest rates; to keep emphasizing the velocity factor confuses the situation.We don't refer to the interest sensitivity.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""Let me call your attention, if I might, to the last sentence in Dave Lindsey's memo in which he says it's not clear that Vl will be less predictable over time than V2 even though Vl may take on behavioral characteristics that are different from earlier postwar years.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""That's faint praise, though.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I absolutely agree with that; I think that's just what Paul said.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""It has been more predictable over most of our history; it may not be in the future, but I believe the burden of proof is on those who say it won't be.That's a biased viewpoint, as you all probably can guess.""}]",no,,,,
355,357,19830713_957_4,MR. ROBERTS.,"""And I would be in favor of the 4 to 8 percent.""","Well, that isn't exactly right. We've had an excessive rate of growth here for a long period of time; it's continuing at a little more moderate pace. Normally in a business expansion we would moderate that; it's time that we signal that to the market very clearly. And I would be in favor of the 4 to 8 percent.","[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""But there's no reason at all why if we have a target of 4 to 8 percent, we can't let the 8 percent happen. If 8 percent happens, 10-1/4 or 10-1/2 percent is easily a reachable measure for nominal GNP. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""But M1 is going to be in this associated range below, and we're going to show in the M2 and M3 ranges a drop of 1/2 point, and the companion associated range for total credit is going to go down 1 point. It seems to me that we have three of the four down, which indicates concern about inflation in terms of the long-run goals. And the fact that Ml has to go up and down and all around simply conveys the uncertainty that is characteristic of that aggregate. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""And what is going to happen is that people are going to say the Fed [is not] fighting inflation.I think you are making a lot more of this velocity point than is necessary from the standpoint of consistency with GNP projections.If you're talking about the midpoint and the average, fine.But there's no reason at all why if we have a target of 4 to 8 percent, we can't let the 8 percent happen.If 8 percent happens, 10-1/4 or 10-1/2 percent is easily a reachable measure for nominal GNP.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""But M1 is going to be in this associated range below, and we're going to show in the M2 and M3 ranges a drop of 1/2 point, and the companion associated range for total credit is going to go down 1 point.It seems to me that we have three of the four down, which indicates concern about inflation in terms of the long-run goals.And the fact that Ml has to go up and down and all around simply conveys the uncertainty that is characteristic of that aggregate.""}]",yes,yes,,contradiction,
356,358,19830823_82_1,MR. GUFFEY.,"""I'd like to step back.""","I'd like to step back. You spoke of next year's rates. [In the Bluebook appendix] an increase in rates is shown in the fourth quarter, which I assume is built into your Greenbook forecast. Can you comment on the background of that assumption?","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'An act of faith? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Well, in large part. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""[Unintelligible] starting it; there's no question about it. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""Maybe even when it's econometrically derived, it's an act of faith. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Any forecast is an act of faith! '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""We do have in there, for example, in the mortgage area about a percentage point reduction in rates from the fourth quarter of this year to the end of 1984.We have had this kind of pattern for a while.We also have corporate bond rates drifting down.It comes out of our forecast; it's sort of an iterative procedure.But our major view is that inflation will still be quite mild and that indeed, with the slowing of nominal GNP growth that we foresee, we could have a little drifting down of short rates and still meet the Committee's targets and that the good inflation performance over time ought to show through in some reduction in long rates.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Now short rates are down too?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""That's right.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'And this would be about a constant real rate, given some decline in inflation?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Well, we have a decline in real rates implied because inflation this year and next year is about the same.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'An act of faith?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Well, in large part.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""[Unintelligible] starting it; there's no question about it.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""Maybe even when it's econometrically derived, it's an act of faith.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Any forecast is an act of faith!'}]",yes,yes,utterance,,
357,359,19831115_18_6,MR. STOCKTON.,"""So, we get the deceleration occurring in three years but we have to spend the first two years--the next two years--holding down those things that we think are apt to boost inflation.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We see how tolerant you are! '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'In that case you should get [price stability] by 1987. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': ""Well, there are a couple of things to keep in mind about this price stability [scenario] that we're presenting. The first thing is that in the next two years we think we're facing a couple of hurdles that are going to make it difficult to reach price stability: We have a food price shock that is going to be showing up in 1984 and we have a substantial increase in the social security tax. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'How big is that? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""So, on balance, one would think that in '85 we ought to come up with about a 1 to 1-1/4 percentage point lower inflation rate than in '84.But you have it going up.Can you [explain]?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': 'Yes.The difference is that the exchange rate behaves quite differently.In the price stability case we still have some depreciation of the exchange rate coming and that accounts for the difference.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'Thank you.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""You've taken a fairly restrictive definition of price stability.How sensitive is this last table to that?If you said price stability was 1-1/2 percent or something like that instead of essentially [zero]--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We see how tolerant you are!'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'In that case you should get [price stability] by 1987.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': ""Well, there are a couple of things to keep in mind about this price stability [scenario] that we're presenting.The first thing is that in the next two years we think we're facing a couple of hurdles that are going to make it difficult to reach price stability: We have a food price shock that is going to be showing up in 1984 and we have a substantial increase in the social security tax.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'How big is that?'}]",no,,,,
358,360,19831115_463_3,MR. KICHLINE.,"""There is still a good deal of weakness in a couple of markets such as copper and I guess silver and lead.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': ""I'd like to say now that I am convinced and that it's probably stronger than forecast. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Martin. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Could I ask a question with regard to price changes and the price outlook, Jim? As you know, several of us have had some discussion with regard to futures prices and spot prices and commodity and producer price indexes and so forth. What would be your judgment as to what the spot and futures markets are showing with regard to the first signs of reinflation or the lack thereof? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': ""And the swing toward inventory accumulation may last longer than is projected, which of course would then mean that the growth rate for the first half of next year would be somewhat higher than is now forecast.I would consider that to be unlikely.But I mention it just to suggest that if there is any error in the forecast, it is that the outcome is likely to be stronger than is now forecast.I was one of those people, I would remind you, who in the spring of this year were concerned about whether the recovery was really as strong as most people thought it was.I'd like to say now that I am convinced and that it's probably stronger than forecast.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Martin.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Could I ask a question with regard to price changes and the price outlook, Jim?As you know, several of us have had some discussion with regard to futures prices and spot prices and commodity and producer price indexes and so forth.What would be your judgment as to what the spot and futures markets are showing with regard to the first signs of reinflation or the lack thereof?'}]",no,,,,
359,361,19840131_105_2,MR. BALLES.,"""The anecdotal evidence from some of our directors, which of course isn't definitive, has been pretty constant in recent months.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. ZEISEL.', 'text': 'But there is a very widespread, and we think very fundamental, increase in expenditures. And what we have projected is a fairly strong recovery by historical standards. The assumption is that a number of factors have operated to reduce the relative cost of capital--the stock market rise, tax law changes for accelerated depreciation, and so on--and apparently have laid the basis for a considerable recovery in capital outlays. We have it moderating through 1985. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Balles. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""Maybe it's a question of the scale, but capacity utilization in the period doesn't go back to the '79 level yet the capital expenditure line appears to be going up fairly steeply.Are you pretty confident about that real business fixed investment [projection]?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ZEISEL.', 'text': ""Well, we've had a very, very substantial increase in business fixed investment recently.In fact, it has been in the phenomenal range and we don't expect that to continue.We think that some of the increases that have occurred over the last few months are a surge in one-time activity.But there is a very widespread, and we think very fundamental, increase in expenditures.And what we have projected is a fairly strong recovery by historical standards.The assumption is that a number of factors have operated to reduce the relative cost of capital--the stock market rise, tax law changes for accelerated depreciation, and so on--and apparently have laid the basis for a considerable recovery in capital outlays.We have it moderating through 1985.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Balles.'}]",no,,,,
360,362,19840327_660_1,VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.,"""No, I mean the third sentence where you have ""greater reserve restraint.""""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'You get borrowings up to what--$1 billion?--with net borrowed reserves probably a minus. What does maintaining the existing degree of reserve pressure or increasing it or decreasing it mean in that circumstance? '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Well, what does it mean then to have your second sentence? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That's precisely why I put the second sentence in brackets. Maybe we can drop the whole thing. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""I realize we haven't moved back 100 percent in terms of the way the short run feeds back with the nonborrowed reserve paths.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Where is the old directive?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'The old directive also put the aggregates up front.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""No, it didn't.It's the same as variant II on page 13.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Right.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I have a little technical problem, but it's a very great problem, in starting out with reserve pressures, which is partly what convinced me [to start with the aggregates].I don't know how we'd describe the current degree of reserve pressures.It's a meaningless concept.Well, the concept isn't meaningless but if you look at borrowings or if you look at net borrowed reserves or free reserves, you're going to get entirely different answers for the month of March.You get borrowings up to what--$1 billion?--with net borrowed reserves probably a minus.What does maintaining the existing degree of reserve pressure or increasing it or decreasing it mean in that circumstance?""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Well, what does it mean then to have your second sentence?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That's precisely why I put the second sentence in brackets.Maybe we can drop the whole thing.""}]",no,,,,
361,363,19840327_682_4,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""I don't intend to do so, but--.""","I myself would think 8 to 12 percent is too high in the directive. We may be under pressure to release this directive early. You might have that in mind. I don't intend to do so, but--.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, quite a few people have expressed the opinion that it ought to be higher and the question is whether-- '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""I don't feel strongly whether it's 7 to 11 percent or 7-1/2 to 11-1/2 percent. I'm always bothered by 1/2 points. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': '8 to 12 percent. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'The markets may overread what that new ceiling is going to mean. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""But in terms of the specifications, I'll take them up backwards starting with the funds rate.Apparently we have established that nobody wants to put the upper limit below 11 percent.Some people want to put it above that.Well, the limit is irrelevant, I guess.What we had before was 6 to 10 percent.If we keep the 4 point range, 7 to 11 percent would be the minimum that anybody is talking about.And a lot of people are talking about [a higher range], but I don't know if those are outliers.Is that generally acceptable or not?""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'Keep the 4 points.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'I think it ought to be higher.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'I do too.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROBERTS.', 'text': 'So do I.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, quite a few people have expressed the opinion that it ought to be higher and the question is whether--'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""I don't feel strongly whether it's 7 to 11 percent or 7-1/2 to 11-1/2 percent.I'm always bothered by 1/2 points.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': '8 to 12 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'The markets may overread what that new ceiling is going to mean.'}]",no,,,,
362,364,19840522_255_1,MR. PARTEE.,"""I think ""B"" is all right.""","I think ""B"" is all right. I would point out that ""B"" has specifications for a number of aggregates and that if the aggregates run stronger--which they might well do in the case of M1 particularly and are already doing in the case of M3--then the question arises as to what to do if they are strong or well above the path. There is language in the directive left over from last time that deals with that and speaks of greater reserve restraint if there is more substantial growth in the monetary aggregates. Now, I think we are all talking about financial market conditions in one way or another as a paramount feature of our discussion this time. I wouldn't support the prominent and extreme billing given to any unusual financial strains in the very first part of the operating paragraph in the directive. On the other hand, I think we could put in a more general phrase about financial market conditions late in the paragraph. That is, it could go down where we are saying that in either case--if we decide to ease or to move higher in terms of rates because of the behavior of the aggregates--such a change would be considered in the context of appraisals of the continuing strength of the expansion, inflationary pressures, financial market conditions, and the rate of credit growth. That also has a desirable attribute in that it includes things other than the Continental problem. We have had a very bad couple of months in financial markets and, indeed, a repetition of that could well give us trouble in an unknown way. It could be a futures market that breaks or something like that. And financial market conditions is a term that could encompass all of that. I don't think we ought to bias the borrowing number toward tightening, as Lyle suggests. I would buy Pres's $900 to $1100 million. I guess I would have assumed that $1 billion means $900 to $1100 million and that there's not much difference from what we now have. I also wouldn't want to prejudge long rates. Lyle made the point that long rates shouldn't be permitted to come down. Well, I think they have gone up quite a bit more than one would have expected as a result of a run toward short instruments in a time of great uncertainty. Should the uncertainty unwind in the weeks to come--which is a possibility, I think, as Steve pointed out--that could mean that people who ordinarily would be in the longer market would commit themselves and we could get a decline in long rates. And I wouldn't resist that. I think it would be a natural market process that ought to be accommodated.","[{'speaker': 'MS. HORN.', 'text': 'I think it is important to end up there because inflationary expectations are heating up and are a very serious matter in future inflation as well. I\'m for ""B"" now. I have a nagging feeling that it may take more than that in the future to end up where I would like to end up at year-end. But for the moment I view it as consistent with where I\'d like to be. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Partee. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'If we had to move away from ""B,"" I would think it would be in the direction of ""B plus.""I think this is a time when we should err temporarily on the side of more liquidity than our long-term game plan would call for in view of all these financial fragilities.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mrs. Horn.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. HORN.', 'text': 'I\'m for alternative B in part because it is consistent with a long-term strategy to bring the aggregates, particularly M1, to the midpoint of their ranges by the end of the year.I would like to see us end up the year with M1 at the midpoint of the long-run range given how strong the economy is and how velocity is going.I think it is important to end up there because inflationary expectations are heating up and are a very serious matter in future inflation as well.I\'m for ""B"" now.I have a nagging feeling that it may take more than that in the future to end up where I would like to end up at year-end.But for the moment I view it as consistent with where I\'d like to be.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Partee.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,entailment,
363,365,19840821_418_2,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""I might say one other thing.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'President Horn Yes Governor Martin Yes Governor Partee Yes Governor Rice Yes Governor Seger Yes Governor Wallich No '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think you see that in the Euromarket and you expect that to put more pressure on the domestic funds market.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""The spread had gotten up to 160 basis points in Treasury bills and 3-month CDs.Then it went down a little to about 60 or 70basis pointsand now it's back up to about 100.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't know in these disturbed periods how good those quotations are that we get on CD rates.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Okay.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""They are probably people's imagination; they are rates they would like to aim at for CDs.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Well, give or take maybe 10 basis points, I think they're probably fairly accurate.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, they're accurate for some banks that can operate; some just can't operate in these markets.Anyway, it's understood what we're voting on and the nuances have been adequately explained?If there are no other questions, we will vote.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'Chairman Volcker Yes Vice Chairman SolomonYesPresident BoehneYes President BoykinYes President CorriganYes Governor GramleyYesPresident Horn Yes Governor Martin Yes Governor ParteeYes Governor RiceYes Governor SegerYes Governor WallichNo'}]",no,,,,
364,366,19841002_35_1,MR. CROSS.,"""I would welcome an increase of $1 billion.""",I would welcome an increase of $1 billion.,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'The question is whether we feel comfortable or uncomfortable with the amount of currencies we hold. I personally feel that we hold an uncomfortably small amount. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, it seems conceivable that we may need more than $500 million over the next year, so why not increase the informal limit by $1 billion instead of $500 million? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I'm perfectly happy to. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'I certainly support that. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""I think that's true if you believe that there is a principle involved here, but I don't know what the principle is.You're assuming that all interest on foreign currencies should as a matter of routine be converted to dollars?Is that what you're saying?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I don't know why it shouldn't be.I consider the home currency to be the dollar rather than the mark!""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""That still is a form of intervention, so I don't understand why you would want to do that unless you had an intervention objective in mind.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Well, I don't remember the basis for doing it this way.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Whether or not it's intervention seems to me semantic.The question is whether we feel comfortable or uncomfortable with the amount of currencies we hold.I personally feel that we hold an uncomfortably small amount.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, it seems conceivable that we may need more than $500 million over the next year, so why not increase the informal limit by $1 billion instead of $500 million?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I'm perfectly happy to.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'I certainly support that.'}]",yes,no,,,
365,367,19841218_199_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""We can provide a perfect monetary policy if you say we just can't provide a perfect economy.""",We can provide a perfect monetary policy if you say we just can't provide a perfect economy.,"[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""But [with] the increase in the saving rate of 1/2 percentage point or so in the third quarter, why would you so argue when consumer credit continues to grow? This tremendous drop in net exports surely can't be assigned primarily to the rise in interest rates in the spring. It's a much broader phenomenon there. We can't provide a perfect monetary policy. There's no way. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""I really can't see why anybody would want to go back to the kind of policy we pursued in the fall of '79 and the fall of '82, given the success of what has happened since.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, the success of what has happened since depends upon what happens in the coming months.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""Well, yes.I'm by no means ruling out that with a monetary policy as ideal as any human brain can conceive, given our knowledge, that we're still going to have variations in economic activity.There's just no way that I could buy the argument that the main reason why we had this dramatic slowdown in the economy was because of high interest rates in the spring.I just don't believe that for a moment.Some of it is; the decline in housing surely is.But [with] the increase in the saving rate of 1/2 percentage point or so in the third quarter, why would you so argue when consumer credit continues to grow?This tremendous drop in net exports surely can't be assigned primarily to the rise in interest rates in the spring.It's a much broader phenomenon there.We can't provide a perfect monetary policy.There's no way.""}]",yes,yes,sentence,,
366,368,19850213_480_3,MR. BALLES.,"""To slow money down from the rapid growth rates of December and January would require a considerable increase in interest rates, which I don't want to see, particularly in view of the precarious situation of agricultural loans, international loans--the whole shooting match.""","Well, Mr. Chairman, the same factors that influenced me on my views on the long-term ranges are coming into play, particularly in the short term here. My view, and I hope it is correct, is that we're experiencing an increase in the demand for money as a direct reflection and delayed reaction to the drop in interest rates in the latter part of last year. To slow money down from the rapid growth rates of December and January would require a considerable increase in interest rates, which I don't want to see, particularly in view of the precarious situation of agricultural loans, international loans--the whole shooting match. Therefore, for this period and this period alone, I would come out in favor of alternative A for the short-term specifications.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'I think the phrase at the beginning should be ""increase slightly;"" that would be preferable to what is shown in ""C."" And I would go with the funds rate range of ""B"" because I\'m not thinking about very much action at this point and that ought to be fully adequate to encompass anything I have in mind. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': '""Increase slightly"" for pressure on reserve positions? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Yes. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Balles. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I think it is desirable for us to try to end the year at the midpoint of alternative II, so I tend to favor the short-run M1 path of ""C."" By the same token, I have some leanings toward ""B"" too, because I don\'t believe it would be desirable necessarily to move to the kind of borrowing target that ""C"" contemplates in the Bluebook.Edging on up toward the $400 million borrowing level would be as much as I\'d want to do.Perhaps more important than that, I\'d want those words on lines 93 and 99--where we have the choice between ""would"" and ""might""--to be ""would"" in both cases.I don\'t think we know which way it\'s going to be and I\'d like to see us be prepared to move in either direction, if the aggregates are not staying on the target.I think the phrase at the beginning should be ""increase slightly;"" that would be preferable to what is shown in ""C.""And I would go with the funds rate range of ""B"" because I\'m not thinking about very much action at this point and that ought to be fully adequate to encompass anything I have in mind.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': '""Increase slightly"" for pressure on reserve positions?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Balles.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,sentence
367,369,19850820_12_1,MR. WALLICH.,"""If I may comment on this: The idea of shortening [maturities] is that they are more liquid and investors can get out more rapidly, which is a concern.""","If I may comment on this: The idea of shortening [maturities] is that they are more liquid and investors can get out more rapidly, which is a concern. But the investors who believe that they can ride out a substantial fall of the dollar presumably look at the long end and they probably would be right.","[{'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""I could add a little comment on that too. Governor Martin. What we are hearing anecdotally also suggests a lesser pace of foreign buying, but continuing interest in the intermediate and long-term area. I don't get any sense, particularly from the dealers who have active Japanese operations, of a shortening of maturities. They are taking a little less but are continuing to look at the 10-year and longer area. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': ""They continue to have substantial long-term outflows into dollars and U.S. securities, but they have tended, for I think the first time, to be doing more hedging.Also, we hear at least anecdotally, but it is very difficult to know how much attention to pay to these things, that one of the factors that has tended to keep sterling somewhat strong has been the tendency of investors to diversify a little toward sterling, which has been paying very high interest rates.But these [reports] are anecdotal; you can't really get a very sound understanding of something as large and as complicated as this market on the basis of a relatively small number of conversations and what you hear.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Not even a shortening in maturities?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""I could add a little comment on that too.Governor Martin.What we are hearing anecdotally also suggests a lesser pace of foreign buying, but continuing interest in the intermediate and long-term area.I don't get any sense, particularly from the dealers who have active Japanese operations, of a shortening of maturities.They are taking a little less but are continuing to look at the 10-year and longer area.""}]",yes,no,,,
368,370,19851105_367_1,MR. PARTEE.,"""That seems to be true of everything.""",That seems to be true of everything.,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'I really thought he was right until this morning when the Chairman denied it. '}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'If we are forced by Humphrey-Hawkins to talk in terms of GNP growth and unemployment and inflation, it seems to me, though, that sometime it has to be tied into what we do, whether we are targeting it precisely or not. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I used to think that way when the bill was written [unintelligible]. I even thought the Congress might ask: Why don't you get a better outcome? ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, I think the difficulty with that approach is that it rather promises more than we can deliver. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""After you put the borrowing level in there for a while and don't meet it, then you will be looking for something else.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'One more target to miss!'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""We will put in next quarter's GNP--this is Mr. Partee talking!I don't know whether he wants the flash or the preliminary or the final revised figure 10 years from now.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'I want an average for the next four quarters.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""That's what Mike Keran says our target is, now that he is out of the Federal Reserve System.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'I really thought he was right until this morning when the Chairman denied it.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'If we are forced by Humphrey-Hawkins to talk in terms of GNP growth and unemployment and inflation, it seems to me, though, that sometime it has to be tied into what we do, whether we are targeting it precisely or not.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I used to think that way when the bill was written [unintelligible].I even thought the Congress might ask: Why don't you get a better outcome?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, I think the difficulty with that approach is that it rather promises more than we can deliver.'}]",yes,,,,
369,371,19851217_160_3,MR. AXILROD.,"""One thing you could think of is that in a deflationary period, financial assets become more ""valuable"" than physical assets, whereas in an inflationary period it's vice versa.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, all I know is that we should have started this discussion some months ago because at the next meeting we have a law which says that we have to set forth some monetary and credit aggregates and we have to decide which ones to set forth and-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'And what kind of a range. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'What kind of a range. I think Jim Kichline has the answer to all of these things because he put in an M1 consistent with the business outlook. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""That's why we have such a low growth rate for next year. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""You're including stock at market value.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'It has been shrinking.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""At market value.But it's not just the holding of the stock too.The point I am trying to get at is that the way that the public holds stock I would guess that much more of the household sector's holdings of stock equity is now through things like savings plan and pension plans.They are institutionalized as opposed to John Doe calling up his broker and saying that he wants to buy 50 shares of whatever.I assume that must be true.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, all I know is that we should have started this discussion some months ago because at the next meeting we have a law which says that we have to set forth some monetary and credit aggregates and we have to decide which ones to set forth and--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'And what kind of a range.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'What kind of a range.I think Jim Kichline has the answer to all of these things because he put in an M1 consistent with the business outlook.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""That's why we have such a low growth rate for next year.""}]",no,,,,
370,372,19851217_254_1,MR. PARTEE.,"""Well, of course, the same complaint can be made of nominal GNP that Bob made about prices.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'The more you ask us to focus on this, the more apparent it becomes that we should be hesitant about moving away from the aggregates too quickly. The alternatives seem unsatisfactory. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't hear anybody arguing. It's practically impossible in the time that we have--without creating a revolution--to move away from some combination of these aggregates, as bad as they are. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""It seems to me that what we really need to do in the short run is to lean a little further in Governor Partee's direction of nominal GNP. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Talk about missing [a target]!'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'If you choose prices, you still have to have some mechanism that you play around with to do that.You have to have some tool or handle.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Interest rates or exchange rates.What other alternative do we have?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'That or some aggregate.Exchange rates, interest rates or aggregates, or some combination.I think that is exhaustive.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'What would happen if we were to publish the monetary aggregates less often?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""We'd be accused of withholding useful information.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'The more you ask us to focus on this, the more apparent it becomes that we should be hesitant about moving away from the aggregates too quickly.The alternatives seem unsatisfactory.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't hear anybody arguing.It's practically impossible in the time that we have--without creating a revolution--to move away from some combination of these aggregates, as bad as they are.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""It seems to me that what we really need to do in the short run is to lean a little further in Governor Partee's direction of nominal GNP.""}]",no,,,,
371,373,19851217_540_1,MR. AXILROD.,"""You could put it on the line after the first sentence, Mr. Chairman, saying ""taking account of the impact of the a discount rate action should one be taken,"" or something like that.""","You could put it on the line after the first sentence, Mr. Chairman, saying ""taking account of the impact of the a discount rate action should one be taken,"" or something like that.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'What if in lines 79-81 [of the draft directive], where we have ""taking account of appraisals"" etc., we just have a comma and a fifth item ""taking into account possible actions on the discount rate"" or something like that. Just say ""conditions in domestic and international credit markets, including a possible change in the discount rate."" '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'How would that be read if we did it that way? It might be read that if the discount rate were decreased, we would decrease reserve pressures further, and we are saying the opposite. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""That's not as clear. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Consistent with what we said, we presumably say we decreased ""somewhat"" or ""slightly"" the existing degree of pressure on reserve positions.I\'m just thinking.""Somewhat greater reserve restraint--""'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""Since we don't mention the borrowing target, it's kind of hard to mention the discount rate, since the two are linked, and I think--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, ""degree of pressure on reserve positions"" is our euphemism for the borrowing target.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'What if in lines 79-81 [of the draft directive], where we have ""taking account of appraisals"" etc., we just have a comma and a fifth item ""taking into account possible actions on the discount rate"" or something like that.Just say ""conditions in domestic and international credit markets, including a possible change in the discount rate.""'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'How would that be read if we did it that way?It might be read that if the discount rate were decreased, we would decrease reserve pressures further, and we are saying the opposite.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""That's not as clear.""}]",yes,no,,,
372,374,19860520_163_11,MR. PARRY.,"""It would not necessarily indicate that people are going to be using these [funds] for transaction purposes.""","I would choose alternative B, which I feel is consistent with growth of around 3-1/2 percent in 1987 and further declines in unemployment. It seems to me that alternative A is not as desirable because of my concerns about the value of the dollar and its inevitable inflationary implications. Also, if we were to choose alternative A, it would come in the context of already very favorable fundamental factors; those that we've mentioned would include lower interest rates, lower oil prices, a value of the dollar that is considerably lower than expected, and of course, the strong growth in M1. Alternative A does not appear to me to be consistent with a goal of longer-term price stability. Also, at this point I would not favor ""C"" because I think it runs the risk of not permitting good growth in 1987. On the other hand, my concern about the future direction of inflation and also the persistent strength in Ml would lead me to favor variant III of the directive. To inform financial markets that there is concern on our part about the growth of money would seem to make some sense. The other point I'd just add parenthetically is that I can come up with a scenario where M2 and M3 may become somewhat more of a problem. Over the last 6 months to a year we've seen an awful lot of money going into mutual funds, stocks, bonds, and municipals, and when investors believe that the interest rates are going to turn those funds are going to come back to short-term assets. And if they come back short, they're going to go into M2 and M3 and we could see much faster growth in M2 and M3 at that point--primarily as a result of portfolio shifts. It would not necessarily indicate that people are going to be using these [funds] for transaction purposes. But I wouldn't derive a great deal of comfort by the well-behaved pattern of M2 and M3 at this point.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'There we are. What have you got to say for yourselves? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'You pretty well have said it all, Mr. Chairman. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""You've got to be a little more specific than that! Mr. Parry. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""They got stronger but they are not so overwhelmingly strong as M1 in terms of our longer-range targets; they don't look alarming at this point.If they begin leveling off--and their rapid increase is fairly recent and I guess it still doesn't look like that's going to parallel the semi-explosion in M1 in May.So I don't know.We have a few tremors; I don't think we have all the confirming signs on M2 and M3.I don't want to prejudge things but I get the sense that the comments heard around the table were not forcibly in the direction of doing anything particularly to monetary policy at the moment.As we look out ahead--and maybe not very far ahead--the question of being a little more restrictive does arise.I'm not sure that date has come quite yet.It would await further evidence on both the monetary side and on the economy.There we are.What have you got to say for yourselves?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'You pretty well have said it all, Mr. Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""You've got to be a little more specific than that!Mr. Parry.""}]",yes,yes,utterance,,utterance
373,375,19860923_91_2,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""I have no doubt of the volume this could involve should it never involve buying, just rolling over what we have.""","You find a portfolio distribution you like and the Treasury is maintaining a distribution that it likes. I have no doubt of the volume this could involve should it never involve buying, just rolling over what we have.","[{'speaker': 'MS. HORN.', 'text': ""Having said that, I think you could define policy as neutral if either we pursued a bills only approach or if we routinely went in for preannounced, preagreed, purchases in the long-term area. And since both long-term and short-term [securities] count as collateral that doesn't help make the decision either. But those are the two policies that I can define as neutral, if you will. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'If we could get the Treasury to stop extending the term structure of the debt, it seems that a neutral policy would be to buy whatever they issue in the same proportion. But they keep extending the number of long bonds without a real rationale that I can tell. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'That I think we can do.But I think it is right to say that one issue is the liquidity crisis and the other is whether we see any purpose in buying coupons.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. HORN.', 'text': ""I guess my view on this is that the folks in the Treasury Department ought to be in the debt management business and that some sort of neutral stand by the Federal Reserve is an appropriate one.Having said that, I think you could define policy as neutral if either we pursued a bills only approach or if we routinely went in for preannounced, preagreed, purchases in the long-term area.And since both long-term and short-term [securities] count as collateral that doesn't help make the decision either.But those are the two policies that I can define as neutral, if you will.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'If we could get the Treasury to stop extending the term structure of the debt, it seems that a neutral policy would be to buy whatever they issue in the same proportion.But they keep extending the number of long bonds without a real rationale that I can tell.'}]",yes,yes,-5 sentences,neutral,-5 sentences
374,376,19860923_244_1,MR. RICE.,"""Mr. Chairman, I think the staff's forecast is a good one.""","Mr. Chairman, I think the staff's forecast is a good one. I expect, as they do, that the economy will pick up in this quarter and in the fourth quarter. However, I can't help noting some areas of concern. The first is that the two areas of strength in the economy--consumption spending and single-family residential construction--while likely to maintain their strength, will be contributing less to the economy. That is, their rate of growth will be decelerating and residential construction in the single-family area will be offset by what's happening in multifamily housing construction. And I'm mindful that the two components that we are relying on to provide this pickup--that is, inventory accumulation and an improvement in the external accounts--are areas that in the past have proven difficult to forecast. As has been pointed out, we may not see the degree of improvement in these components that we would hope for. Therefore, I would see the risks of the forecast on the down side. I'm gratified, however, by the recent evidence of improvement in the economy, particularly in the employment area, and also by the anecdotal evidence that has come in. There seems to be an improved sentiment in the business community as well. But I do see the risks at this point on the down side.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""I don't know what it was on wages. is not nearly as optimistic as because it is apparently accruing very much to the benefit of is not as much affected-- ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""He didn't get a good settlement? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Yes. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Rice. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""I think there is a chance that we'll see more of an effect in other sectors of the passthrough of the higher dollar cost of imports.I also wonder if the growth rate of the economy, averaging 3 percent between now and the end of 1987, would enable producers to pass along larger price increases than are incorporated in the Board staff's forecast.As a result, our inflation rates have a tendency to be running about a percentage point higher than those shown by the Board staff.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'What happened in that Weyerhauser strike?Is it settled?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""We still don't know.It's mainly in British Columbia and that's why it seems to be accruing to the benefit of--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Weyerhauser in British Columbia?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'The one domestically has been settled.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'It has been settled?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'On what terms?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""It was mainly rules.I don't know what it was on wages.is not nearly as optimistic as because it is apparently accruing very much to the benefit of is not as much affected--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""He didn't get a good settlement?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Rice.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,,
375,377,19870211_42_2,MR. STERNLIGHT.,"""So, one can fold in the new revisions in an orderly way and they wouldn't have the impact that they had in that December period.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""I wouldn't be totally astounded if the funds rate drifted back to something under 6 percent. Maybe that would come about as seasonal borrowings picked up more. But, at least barring some new factor right now, as I said, I tend to think more of a funds rate in the 6 percent area in association with $300 million of borrowing. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': ""If you had expanding credit demands--it is clear how that can happen as it did in that year-end period--under our operating procedures you just can't adjust your projections of required reserves quickly enough to adapt. On an on-going basis and in a more orderly fashion, can that phenomenon create greater pressures in the funds market? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'Peter, with regard to these expectational effects that you were just referring to, I agree with you that what you described there is a major shift in psychology.Can that have a permanent effect on the level of the funds rate for a given borrowing target?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""I think it can have a lasting effect.I would hate to say that anything is permanent, given the changeability of things.I wouldn't be totally astounded if the funds rate drifted back to something under 6 percent.Maybe that would come about as seasonal borrowings picked up more.But, at least barring some new factor right now, as I said, I tend to think more of a funds rate in the 6 percent area in association with $300 million of borrowing.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': ""If you had expanding credit demands--it is clear how that can happen as it did in that year-end period--under our operating procedures you just can't adjust your projections of required reserves quickly enough to adapt.On an on-going basis and in a more orderly fashion, can that phenomenon create greater pressures in the funds market?""}]",no,,,,
376,378,19870211_515_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Well, it's unusual and I would resist it ordinarily on the basis that we normally use quarters, but that great distortion at year-end--""","Well, it's unusual and I would resist it ordinarily on the basis that we normally use quarters, but that great distortion at year-end--","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, that gives us one alternative--I am not sure that this is the way we want to say it--but if we wanted to say January to April, we would say we expected the growth of M2 and M3 over the period from January to April to be at annual rates of 6 to 7 percent. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""That's narrow. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't think we ever make it wider than that. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': '6 to 7 percent? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'I sure do like that idea of using the January base. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""Well, I don't have a specific projection in front of me for April, but I would be tempted to maintain M2 and M3 at about their March growth rates.I don't see why they would deviate substantially, so that means 7 percent for M2 and 6 percent for M3.So January to April--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'It would be 7 percent for both?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'No, I was thinking 7 percent for M2 and 6 percent for M3.It could be 7 percent for both, too.So January to April might be 6-1/2 percent, or a range of 6 to 7 percent for M2 and around 6 percent for M3.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, that gives us one alternative--I am not sure that this is the way we want to say it--but if we wanted to say January to April, we would say we expected the growth of M2 and M3 over the period from January to April to be at annual rates of 6 to 7 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""That's narrow.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't think we ever make it wider than that.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': '6 to 7 percent?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'I sure do like that idea of using the January base.'}]",yes,no,,,
377,379,19870211_705_2,MR. PARRY.,"""We are going to be evaluating changes as to whether or not they are appropriate.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""Or just leave it out. And if that is the case, it's the same thing in the last sentence of the second paragraph where it refers to appropriate growth. It is a little misleading--we are going to evaluate growth in M1 from time to time as to whether or not it is appropriate. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'It is a minor point, but why would you want ""appropriate"" in there? Let\'s have some sense of: we are going to evaluate whether we are going to have a short-run target for M1, which implies some appropriateness. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""Well, I think it's fair to say that if you could stabilize this interest differential that has created such a sensitivity and swings you would expect to see it run consistently.I may be wrong, but under a stable differential I would guess that would be the thing more than anything else probably would be.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Anybody want to focus on any other sentences?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Yes, just a minor point in the last sentence of the first paragraph.Isn\'t ""appropriate changes"" a little misleading?Wouldn\'t it be better just to say ""changes""?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'We could say ""the appropriateness of...""'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""That would be better.Or just leave it out.And if that is the case, it's the same thing in the last sentence of the second paragraph where it refers to appropriate growth.It is a little misleading--we are going to evaluate growth in M1 from time to time as to whether or not it is appropriate.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'It is a minor point, but why would you want ""appropriate"" in there?Let\'s have some sense of: we are going to evaluate whether we are going to have a short-run target for M1, which implies some appropriateness.'}]",no,,,,
378,380,19870331_172_10,MR. TRUMAN.,"""In neither Germany nor Japan do you have a sense that policy is out ahead of the adjustment process; it's being forced by the exchange rate""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""The models were saying exports were going to be very [strong], so we tended to judgmentally adjust that down because we didn't at that point see much evidence. Now, in the second half of the year, the evidence was that U.S. net exports were doing quite well; so, although we still have damped down our [projected] rate of increase in export volume relative to what standing historical relationships might produce, we have damped it somewhat less than we had done before. Again, that's one of the factors that is viewed from the side of the trade [balance] as shown on the lower growth [abroad]. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""It's the speed of the depreciation that made a big difference in your mind? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""That tends not to be the case.It tends to be a taking of those benefits into the [fiscal] position and lower prices in the fiscal situation give you less of an automatic [stabilizer effect].The third factor, looking back to last July, is that we were cautious about a forecast too strong in terms of exports.The models were saying exports were going to be very [strong], so we tended to judgmentally adjust that down because we didn't at that point see much evidence.Now, in the second half of the year, the evidence was that U.S. net exports were doing quite well; so, although we still have damped down our [projected] rate of increase in export volume relative to what standing historical relationships might produce, we have damped it somewhat less than we had done before.Again, that's one of the factors that is viewed from the side of the trade[balance] as shown on the lower growth [abroad].""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""It's the speed of the depreciation that made a big difference in your mind?""}]",no,,,,
379,381,19870519_219_1,MR. ANGELL.,"""Well, it seems to me that a $400 million borrowing assumption should go with the discount rate move to give you ""C.""""","Well, it seems to me that a $400 million borrowing assumption should go with the discount rate move to give you ""C."" And then if conditions changed, that would call in the rest of our directive as to the room we would have later.","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I think a discount rate change now would give us the kind of maneuvering room that Manley mentioned, as well. I might be a bit more skittish about the discount rate this morning than I was yesterday, just because the market has gotten pretty jumpy in the context of this Citibank development. But the right policy, in my judgment, is the Boehne/Melzer/Angell twist on this, which affects the timing, as far as I'm concerned. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'Another question. If we went for a discount rate change soon, and that was the policy, what borrowing would go with that? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'I am very sympathetic to the point made by Ed Boehne, and seconded by Tom Melzer, that there would be more clout from a discount rate change if it were to occur prior to moving to, or confirming, a $600 million borrowing level.I think it would have more impact.But since the Governors of the Board will be the ones voting on that, I belong in camp ""C.""'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Corrigan.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'I would be for ""C"" too.As far as the Boehne/Melzer/Angell twist, that is something I have some considerable sympathy for--trying to get out ahead of this a little.I think a discount rate change now would give us the kind of maneuvering room that Manley mentioned, as well.I might be a bit more skittish about the discount rate this morning than I was yesterday, just because the market has gotten pretty jumpy in the context of this Citibank development.But the right policy, in my judgment, is the Boehne/Melzer/Angell twist on this, which affects the timing, as far as I\'m concerned.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'Another question.If we went for a discount rate change soon, and that was the policy, what borrowing would go with that?'}]",yes,yes,sentence,,
380,382,19870519_311_2,MR. JOHNSON.,"""I just think it should be made clear relative to what.""",I do too. I just think it should be made clear relative to what.,"[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'I think it should say ""increased somewhat."" Because from the last policy directive-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'As long as it is made clear that that is relative to what we sought. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Assuming that there is no great tidal wave here to release the minutes earlier than the next meeting, it would seem to me that what should be in the record is increased reserve restraint. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'I agree with that. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'It\'s nice to know--we haven\'t gotten to the first sentence yet.I think it probably should be not quite so asymmetrical as last time, which was fully asymmetrical.If we keep this general structure we can say: ""Greater reserve restraint would and somewhat or slightly lesser reserve might.""Or we can make them both ""somewhat"" and make one word a ""might.""Let\'s go back to the first sentence.I think we can either say ""maintain"" or ""increase.""If we say increase, we will say ""increase the degree of reserve pressures sought in recent weeks"" and it will all be explained in the policy record.Or we can say ""maintain the existing""--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'I think it should say ""increased somewhat.""Because from the last policy directive--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'As long as it is made clear that that is relative to what we sought.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Assuming that there is no great tidal wave here to release the minutes earlier than the next meeting, it would seem to me that what should be in the record is increased reserve restraint.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'I agree with that.'}]",yes,no,,,
381,383,19870818_75_5,MR. PRELL.,"""But that certainly is one of the areas where a surprise would be less shocking to us.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""I have a gut feeling that the economy in the last half of this year and going into 1988 is going to be stronger than we have projected, and I've been examining numbers trying to figure out where the greater strength will come from. It seems to me that it could well be from the producer durable equipment sector where you show a continued rise in manufacturing capacity utilization throughout the period. In recent months, we've seen a very strong trend in new orders for capital goods. Yet in your projection, after the current quarter, you show only a very modest growth rate. Do you view this as an area of vulnerability in your forecast? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'So you expect the improvement in real net exports to continue.Is that--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'That is correct.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Not in the third quarter.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""In the third quarter, we think we're going to have this special effect with the oil--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'But out beyond that?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'Beyond that, we expect essentially the same forecast as this time--most of it accounted for by the exchange rate depreciation, taking account of the weak growth abroad.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""I have a gut feeling that the economy in the last half of this year and going into 1988 is going to be stronger than we have projected, and I've been examining numbers trying to figure out where the greater strength will come from.It seems to me that it could well be from the producer durable equipment sector where you show a continued rise in manufacturing capacity utilization throughout the period.In recent months, we've seen a very strong trend in new orders for capital goods.Yet in your projection, after the current quarter, you show only a very modest growth rate.Do you view this as an area of vulnerability in your forecast?""}]",no,,,,
382,384,19870818_186_4,MS. SEGER.,"""The third reason is that I just don't see that the economy is currently boiling.""","I'm in favor of no change, which is alternative B, $500 million borrowing target, for three main reasons. One is, as I think Governor Angell emphasized, the uncertainties that we are facing. Another reason is that there aren't that many weeks between this meeting and the next FOMC meeting; we have another chance, very soon, to look at things and change our approach, based on additional readings of the economy. The third reason is that I just don't see that the economy is currently boiling. The forecast certainly does look pretty good; but, again, I question whether or not we're going to see the hit from the trade turnaround in the way that many are expecting. So, for those reasons, I would like to propose keeping reserve pressures as they are. And, in the statement, I would deemphasize the impact of the dollar on what we are doing. Also, I don't want to tilt the directive.","[{'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': 'That entails, in my judgment, relatively little risk to the economic outlook; also, if it turns out that we were wrong, it would not be terribly difficult to undo. And from that perspective, I think it merits consideration as well. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Is that $600 million? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': 'Right around there, yes. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Seger. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': 'Well, as I suggested earlier, I think that the principal risk we are likely to face, over time, is higher inflation.The key question in my mind is one of timing.I don\'t have the sense that the inflation problem is a fait accompli.On the other hand, I don\'t think we can afford to sit back and wait until it is obvious, for reasons mentioned earlier about the cost of undoing it once it is in place.Balancing those two considerations, I am not prepared to go as far as alternative C, but I do view something between ""B"" and ""C"" as perhaps a positive, helpful, preemptive strike at this point in time.That entails, in my judgment, relatively little risk to the economic outlook; also, if it turns out that we were wrong, it would not be terribly difficult to undo.And from that perspective, I think it merits consideration as well.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Is that $600 million?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': 'Right around there, yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Seger.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
383,385,19871103_266_1,VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.,"""Well, either way; we can come back to that.""",,"[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'The first sentence reads: ""In the implementation of policy for the immediate future, the Committee seeks to [decrease somewhat/maintain/increase slightly] the degree of pressures on reserve positions"" and I would insert ""sought in recent days."" '}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'You think the markets know what that means? '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'Yes, I think they do. '}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'Okay. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Recent days or recent weeks--either one? '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'This is built on Variant I, and I think it gets at a lot of the things that you have been saying.The first sentence, without prejudging decreasing or maintain or whatever would read: ""In the implementation of policy for the immediate future, the Committee seeks to [decrease somewhat/maintain/increase slightly] the degree of pressures on reserve positions sought in recent days.""Tom, I think that gets at your point.And I would remove the next sentence after the semicolon completely.Go down to the next sentence ""The Committee ...""'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'What was your first your sentence again?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'Take out all that stuff after the semicolon.I\'m at Variant I.The first sentence reads: ""In the implementation of policy for the immediate future, the Committee seeks to [decrease somewhat/maintain/increase slightly] the degree of pressures on reserve positions"" and I would insert ""sought in recent days.""'}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'You think the markets know what that means?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'Yes, I think they do.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'Okay.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Recent days or recent weeks--either one?'}]",no,,,,
384,386,19871216_491_1,MR. ANGELL.,"""If that was the policy, then this morning I presume we should have gone in immediately, acting to keep it at 6-3/4 percent.""","If that was the policy, then this morning I presume we should have gone in immediately, acting to keep it at 6-3/4 percent.","[{'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""Earlier, when the funds rate fell below the 6-3/4 percent level, we put off reserve add needs, giving a strong signal that we didn't want it lower either. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""Well, my view was that yesterday we had a need to take reserves out of the system and we didn't because funds were trading at 6-3/4 percent. So, we said we won't take the reserves out of the system that policy would have called for; we, in effect, put a ceiling-- ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'But Wayne, what is policy? Policy was the funds rate range around 6-3/4 to 6-7/8 percent, not a borrowings target. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': 'The question was that we have a fluctuation in the funds rate on the down side, and therefore, we could perhaps begin to move toward [accepting] more volatility in the funds rate right now since it moved in the right direction for us first off.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""Well, that very well may be due to the fact that we're so sensitive to any increases in the fed funds rate above the 6-3/4 percent level and we're not sensitive about it moving below that.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""That's not true Wayne.Earlier, when the funds rate fell below the 6-3/4 percent level, we put off reserve add needs, giving a strong signal that we didn't want it lower either.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""Well, my view was that yesterday we had a need to take reserves out of the system and we didn't because funds were trading at 6-3/4 percent.So, we said we won't take the reserves out of the system that policy would have called for; we, in effect, put a ceiling--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'But Wayne, what is policy?Policy was the funds rate range around 6-3/4 to 6-7/8 percent, not a borrowings target.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,,sentence
385,387,19871216_682_5,MR. MELZER.,"""I really don't know what (3) means.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Melzer. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'I also would favor ""B"". I would define that as a $400 million borrowings target. In my mind, that\'s where we were and what we\'ve done since then was really to accommodate the special conditions. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'This is on the normal part. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""I heard him say revised down, but I didn't hear--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""The December aggregates--is that what you're asking?""}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""We're now looking at about a -4 percent on M1.That is composed of a further drop of about 16 percent in demand deposits and a small rise in other checkable deposits.And we have about a 2-1/2 to 3 percent increase in M2.Some of the revision to M2 is not only this demand deposit drop showing through, but the overnight RPs and Eurodollars also came in quite weak.That's a highly volatile series, so I'm not sure how much emphasis I'd put on that.The household parts of M2--the bank and thrift savings and time deposits and money market funds--don't look much different than they did last week.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'Thank you.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Melzer.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'I also would favor ""B"".I would define that as a $400 million borrowings target.In my mind, that\'s where we were and what we\'ve done since then was really to accommodate the special conditions.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'This is on the normal part.'}]",no,,,,
386,388,19880210_411_1,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""Well, let's make sure we are all talking about the same thing.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': 'So I see both ""A"" and ""B"" as pretty restrictive policies. I certainly would favor somewhere in between--I\'d say right on the line between ""A"" and ""B""--with a borrowing target just as it exists right now, maintain continuing pressure. And following Peter Sternlight, I\'d say continuing pressure is $150 million and the trading range for federal funds probably would then be 6-3/8 to 6-1/2 percent, broadly. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""So you're saying $150 million borrowing assumption? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': 'Existing borrowing, existing pressure--so it would be $150 million. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': 'As far as the short-term monetary growth is concerned, I see January mainly as a bounce-back after the very weak November and December numbers.If you take the number from October to March, as has been just supplied by Don Kohn, our current targets only imply 5-3/4 percent M2 growth under alternative A and only 5-1/2 percent growth under alternative B.So there would be very slow growth, indeed, compared at least with the numbers that we see in front of us here--the 8 percent number that\'s the implied growth[under alternative B] from December to March.So I see both ""A"" and ""B"" as pretty restrictive policies.I certainly would favor somewhere in between--I\'d say right on the line between ""A"" and ""B""--with a borrowing target just as it exists right now, maintain continuing pressure.And following Peter Sternlight, I\'d say continuing pressure is $150 million and the trading range for federal funds probably would then be 6-3/8 to 6-1/2 percent, broadly.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""So you're saying $150 million borrowing assumption?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': 'Existing borrowing, existing pressure--so it would be $150 million.'}]",no,,,,
387,389,19880630_8_18,MR. CROSS.,"""[The intervention sales also were undertaken] to show some resistance to the rise in the dollar, so as not to let it get to levels which are simply going to be unsustainable--because service problems could well disrupt the market again.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.] '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Are there any questions for Mr. Cross? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""I have a couple of questions. What kinds of consultations and cooperation, or lack of cooperation, currently exist among major central banks of the world on these recent interventions? And a related question is what are we trying to accomplish with what we're doing or what we're not doing? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""So I presume everyone's hair is appropriately combed or constructively disarrayed.Secondly, we have dinner this evening at the British Embassy and I assume that everyone has [arranged] transportation appropriate to their needs; if not, shout, and we'll get that all done.Well, let's get the minutes of the May 17th meeting out of the way.Would somebody like to move them?""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'I will move it.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Do I hear a second?SEVERAL.Second.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Without objection, I assume they are approved.Sam Cross usually has very little to say, but today I suspect he's got a lot on his agenda.Sam?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': ""Well, it's been an interesting period, Mr. Chairman.[Statement--see Appendix.]""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Are there any questions for Mr. Cross?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""I have a couple of questions.What kinds of consultations and cooperation, or lack of cooperation, currently exist among major central banks of the world on these recent interventions?And a related question is what are we trying to accomplish with what we're doing or what we're not doing?""}]",no,,,,
388,390,19880630_449_1,MR. JOHNSON.,"""You've got a point on the reserve thing, but on the rates, the funds rate has basically led all the other short rates.""","You've got a point on the reserve thing, but on the rates, the funds rate has basically led all the other short rates. It's higher than the T-bill, commercial paper rates, and everything else. Your point on reserves is well taken, but we've certainly been ahead on the short rate issue. Some of that could be the supply problem but--","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': ""It's like trying to nibble it to death, it seems to me. And it's not clear to me from our moves to date that we've tightened significantly. If you look at the monetary aggregates, which is the point Bob Black made, you could make a case that we haven't changed much at all. If you look at bank credit, we had two months of pretty strong growth relative to the last 6 months. So, the concern would be that if the markets are moving rates, while we're allowing them to go up, in fact, we're providing more reserves than-- ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': 'A trade-off obviously for the ""C"" path, given what Peter Sternlight said yesterday with respect to a discount rate move causing the funds rate to rise, would be living with a ""B"" path with a discount rate increase.I have some reservations similar to President Forrestal in respect to reacting, or appearing to react, to incoming information on an every two-week basis.I think the market has been doing thatand I think we should try to set a tone of a little more stability than that.I also am concerned that this tit-for-tat kind of following market rates up may not get us out in front of inflation.It\'s like trying to nibble it to death, it seems to me.And it\'s not clear to me from our moves to date that we\'ve tightened significantly.If you look at the monetary aggregates, which is the point Bob Black made, you could make a case that we haven\'t changed much at all.If you look at bank credit, we had two months of pretty strong growth relative to the last 6 months.So, the concern would be that if the markets are moving rates, while we\'re allowing them to go up, in fact, we\'re providing more reserves than--'}]",yes,yes,sentence,neutral,
389,391,19890516_360_9,MR. GUFFEY.,"""I would prefer asymmetrical toward restraint as it was last meeting.""","Okay. Sticking with ""B,"" with the $600 million, seems to me to be appropriate. I'm not sure, however, that going to a symmetrical directive at this particular meeting is what I would recommend. It seems to me that the data we are relying on as [indicative of] a slowdown are nothing more than three weeks' to a month's data. To be sure, the aggregates are slow; but the projection by the staff is that the growth of M2 will return to the 6 to 7 percent area within the next 30 days. Given the attention that the markets pay to the directive, it seems to me that a directive very much like that adopted at the last meeting--that is, [with a tilt] toward restraint--would be appropriate this time. It would give us flexibility; if we want to go the other way that's available via a telephone call. I can't remember how it was but it was something like ""somewhat and would"" and ""somewhat and might"" in the language of the directive itself. I would prefer asymmetrical toward restraint as it was last meeting.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""So I would suggest that we do have a telephone conference just for the purpose of auditing what's going on. Roger, do you have a question? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""It's not a question. I just want to follow up on your comments, Mr. Chairman. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Okay, go ahead. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I would be careful specifically to watch the money supply more closely than we usually do, although I'm not sure I would recommend that we move it up in the directive.But certainly I think that is crucial to what we are doing and we just need to watch it.I have the impression that even though we didn't have a telephone conference in the last intermeeting period--there was nothing that really happened that deviated substantially from our general expectations as far as policy was concerned--that we ought to have one just on general principles this next time.I'm pretty sure we should have one if for no other reason than to try to get a sense from all of you whether you see any [need for an] alteration in the policy.So I would suggest that we do have a telephone conference just for the purpose of auditing what's going on.Roger, do you have a question?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""It's not a question.I just want to follow up on your comments, Mr. Chairman.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Okay, go ahead.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,entailment,utterance
390,392,19891003_225_1,MR. KEEHN.,"""I have a question not with regard to Peter's report on the operations but on the seasonal borrowing program.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': 'Peter, do you think that bias is based on domestic considerations or foreign exchange issues? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""I think it's a mixture of both, President Forrestal. Those who have that expectation anticipate seeing a bit more softness in business. But they think the foreign exchange factor certainly would be working that way too. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Keehn. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'I think it has implications for what might happen to market rates relative to the choices we make.So I just want to--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""My judgment would be, President Parry, that if the market had to bet whether policy would go one way or another they'd bet that policy would more likely be eased than tightened.If you look at the term fed funds markets and fed funds futures and things like that, they don't really have much ease built in there.On the other hand, surveys such as the money market services survey do show a little downtick by the end of the year of maybe a quarter of a point.So it's a little; I don't think they have much built in there.It's essentially flat with maybe some bias towards ease before the end of the year.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': 'Peter, do you think that bias is based on domestic considerations or foreign exchange issues?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""I think it's a mixture of both, President Forrestal.Those who have that expectation anticipate seeing a bit more softness in business.But they think the foreign exchange factor certainly would be working that way too.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Keehn.'}]",no,,,,
391,393,19891003_302_3,MR. GUFFEY.,"""With respect to [agriculture], the good news is that the drought has been broken, although crop estimates for the spring-planted crops are a fourth to a third below what would be an average crop.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""Well, I'm talking about ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'Oh, excuse me. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': 'Well, a considerable difference-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': 'Approximately the same magnitude. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Guffey. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': 'In petrochemicals, inventories have been building and prices have been soft, with a result that several plant expansions either have been delayed or canceled.Retail sales have shown modest improvement with the exception of auto sales, which had been stronger and now are showing declines in many areas.Two of our weakest sectors, energy and construction, have begun to show small gains; but residential construction continues weak as does agriculture--both cattle and crops.The statistical data continue to show what I would say is modest growth.We have had rather extensive discussions over the last couple of weeks with various businessmen and others in our District.The attitude has changed, even in Houston.Growth seems to have leveled off there as it has [in Southern Texas]; and they were two particularly strong areas.The way that they are characterizing the situation is that they think our economy either has stalled or is shortly headed for a stall.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'Is that because'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': 'That could be a factor!'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': ""He's back.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'I thought he supported all expenditures that went into that area.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""Well, I'm talking about""}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'Oh, excuse me.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': 'Well, a considerable difference--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': 'Approximately the same magnitude.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Guffey.'}]",no,,,,
392,394,19891003_326_13,VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.,"""It tells me that there are great risks of a renewal of protectionist attitudes in this country.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""They are not economic in many cases; but in virtually every case they are substantially impacted by economic events and economic conditions. As I look at the economy, I'm close to where I think Governor Johnson and President Black and others are in that it's hard for me to see where meaningful strength can come from and relatively easy to see where weakness can come from. And that gives me some pause. I would suggest that we ought to be rather sensitive to emerging weakness and be quite careful that we don't induce something through policy that would turn out to be counterproductive to society in a larger sense. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Jeremiah Corrigan! '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I have adopted a self-imposed task of delivering jeremiads from time-to-time about things that are going on that are somewhat outside the economy and present a backdrop against which we need to apply policy.I'm not going to repeat that this morning, but I would just like to get on the table the fact that there are a host of very important challenges and problems in the economy that are very urgent and on which, in many cases, we seem to have an opportunity to make some substantial progress.They are not economic in many cases; but in virtually every case they are substantially impacted by economic events and economic conditions.As I look at the economy, I'm close to where I think Governor Johnson and President Black and others are in that it's hard for me to see where meaningful strength can come from and relatively easy to see where weakness can come from.And that gives me some pause.I would suggest that we ought to be rather sensitive to emerging weakness and be quite careful that we don't induce something through policy that would turn out to be counterproductive to society in a larger sense.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Jeremiah Corrigan!'}]",no,,,,
393,395,19891114_204_1,MR. KOHN.,"""Well, even under alternative A [the funds rate] would still be a point above the discount rate.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I'll be brief--well, not too brief. [Statement--see Appendix.] ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Questions for Mr. Kohn? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'Don, this is unrelated to the presentation that you just made, but I wanted to ask you what you thought the frictional level of borrowing was. If it were necessary to inject more reserves, would you view it as a problem if the funds rate actually dropped below the discount rate? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. LAWARE.', 'text': ""And then of course you have the punk-junk market, which I think is balanced on a very thin knife's edge.Recession to my way of thinking is a decidedly dangerous alternative because I think the bulwarks by which we try to insulate ourselves or our industries against external shock are very thin.And if the economy in fact is any softer underneath than the Greenbook would seem to indicate, then we may be closer to the edge of the abyss than was indicated.And with that, I'm sure you can hear my dove-like wings flapping on the bridges.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': 'Along with mine.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'With that, I think it probably would be desirable to break for coffee.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I'll be brief--well, not too brief.[Statement--see Appendix.]""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Questions for Mr. Kohn?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'Don, this is unrelated to the presentation that you just made, but I wanted to ask you what you thought the frictional level of borrowing was.If it were necessary to inject more reserves, would you view it as a problem if the funds rate actually dropped below the discount rate?'}]",no,,,,
394,396,19891219_109_9,MR. FORRESTAL.,"""There is an acceptance now--rightly or wrongly, and I think it's wrongly--that 4-1/2 percent inflation is not all that bad.""","Sure, that's right. My gut reaction, as I looked at this and heard the discussion today, is that the cost will probably be greater in terms of GNP output and unemployment than this presentation would suggest. Be that as it may, the only comment I would make is that, even if you accept the zero inflation base case, the question that I ask myself is really a strategic question in terms of future policy and what it means in terms of our future actions. I question whether getting from where we are--at roughly a 4-1/2 percent inflation rate--to zero in 5 years, with the associated cost of a 7 percent unemployment rate, will be acceptable to the country at large. That's a public policy question. I guess it raises the question of whether or not, in the absence of the Neal legislation or something like it, the country will accept the cost of bringing inflation down from 4-1/2 percent to zero. The parallel to the 1979-80 time frame, it seems to me, is not quite applicable because we were coming from double-digit inflation, and I think people clearly recognized that that was a terribly insidious thing that was happening. I'm not so sure in the present environment that people will be willing to accept getting from where were are in terms of inflation now to zero inflation. There is an acceptance now--rightly or wrongly, and I think it's wrongly--that 4-1/2 percent inflation is not all that bad. As inflation goes up, there comes a point where people get concerned about it; I think people would be willing to suffer some sacrifice to go from, say, a 7 or 8 percent rate of inflation to something lower than that. But to go from 4-1/2 to zero, I think, raises a question about the political consequences of getting from where we are in 1989 to 1995. I'm not saying that I disagree with the concept of moving in that direction. But I think a question that we need to ask ourselves is whether 7 percent unemployment will be accepted by the public at large and, particularly, by the Congress.","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': ""I have just a couple of comments, Mr. Chairman. First, I would join those who compliment the staff on this presentation. It's one of the few times I can remember when we've had the opportunity to sit back and look out into the future rather than dealing with the short term. I suspect, though, when push comes to shove that we're going to be back in the short-term policy making mode anyway. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""It's always good to have background and a framework with a notion of where we're going. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': ""The P* model tells a very similar kind of story to the Board's quarterly model in that if you end up with a big price gap at the end it must mean either that velocity is very far from its equilibrium and/or that output is very far from its equilibrium.In essence, the longer you have to get to this end point, the more adjustment can occur.Within the five-year period you can reach both price stability and some general real output equilibrium much easier than you can if you try to do it quickly and you have to be pushing very hard on one particular level.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Forrestal.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': ""I have just a couple of comments, Mr. Chairman.First, I would join those who compliment the staff on this presentation.It's one of the few times I can remember when we've had the opportunity to sit back and look out into the future rather than dealing with the short term.I suspect, though, when push comes to shove that we're going to be back in the short-term policy making mode anyway.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""It's always good to have background and a framework with a notion of where we're going.""}]",yes,yes,sentence,entailment,sentence
395,397,19900515_37_5,MR. PRELL.,"""So, instead of heading south to 4 percent a couple of years from now, we feel the risk is that inflation would be heading north to 5 percent.""","Correct. Our suspicion is that if you hold to the current money market conditions, economic activity will gradually pick up. You will not see the unemployment rate rise much, if at all, over the coming year or so. And since we believe that right now the pressures are such that the tendencies for inflation point up, we would make a new course and head in that direction. So, instead of heading south to 4 percent a couple of years from now, we feel the risk is that inflation would be heading north to 5 percent. That's a significant difference and I'd hate to make it more precise than that. But as we've said, we felt there was noise affecting the reading of the trends [unintelligible] a variety of special factors: the surprising strength of the dollar earlier in the year and so on. It's always difficult to read these [unintelligible]. So, that's the basic thrust of our assessment at this point.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Angell. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""Mike, if you pursued a gradual reduction in the rate of inflation, it's quite likely, isn't it, that the noise may at times obscure any trend of progress? That's more apt to happen in a gradual reduction approach than if there were a significant recession. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'Well, in addition to that-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'So, even though in some ways this may not give the Committee a sense of a lot of achievement, you think it would be different than that if we did not pursue this course? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'But if that opened the door to a great deal of investment activity and it happened very quickly, we could even in the extreme get a net increase in aggregate demand in the short run; and short rates might even have to rise some in response to that to keep things on a desirable path.Falling short of that, if the Federal Reserve is accommodative in terms of trying to hold real GNP close to the path it would otherwise have been on, I think the fiscal shock has to be one that tends to lower interest rates.The degree would depend in part on how much forward expectation there was and how much bond yields move as well as short-term rates.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Angell.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""Mike, if you pursued a gradual reduction in the rate of inflation, it's quite likely, isn't it, that the noise may at times obscure any trend of progress?That's more apt to happen in a gradual reduction approach than if there were a significant recession.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'Well, in addition to that--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'So, even though in some ways this may not give the Committee a sense of a lot of achievement, you think it would be different than that if we did not pursue this course?'}]",yes,yes,sentence,,sentence
396,398,19901002_176_8,MR. KOHN.,"""So, we wouldn't ordinarily expect money demand to react very sharply contemporaneously to slowdowns in nominal GNP.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""I wondered: How does V2 on a one-quarter lag basis look with 2.6 percent? We really have a fair idea, don't we Don, as to where M2 might be in the third quarter relative to the second quarter? We could put that to bed and then take this number [and determine] what kind of a V2 change we would have. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'For the fourth quarter? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Yes. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': ""But it isn't [unintelligible] and nobody knows.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Well, the point we tried to make is that if potential GNP is growing more slowly, one has to lower one's sights on what kind of GNP growth we can have and achieve a given degree of slack.That, I think, is the cutting edge on this issue.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""Mike, following up on David Mullins' questions in regard to the fourth quarter: I note that you have nominal GNP at 2.6 percent for that quarter.If my memory serves me correctly, we hardly had any quarters in the 1981-1982 recession that had nominal GNP that low.That 2.6 percent is an extremely low nominal number.I wondered: How does V2 on a one-quarter lag basis look with 2.6 percent?We really have a fair idea, don't we Don, as to where M2 might be in the third quarter relative to the second quarter?We could put that to bed and then take this number [and determine] what kind of a V2 change we would have.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'For the fourth quarter?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Yes.'}]",no,,,,
397,399,19901113_180_1,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""We will have minutes at that point and I assume the minutes will explicitly state the purpose of what is being done.""",,"[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'The worst interpretation would be if we take it out and it leaves the impression that the Committee has decided that it will no longer make any intermeeting adjustments in policy, and-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': 'Cuts back [unintelligible] on phone calls. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'This will not appear in the policy record until six weeks after this meeting. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'It will be published the Friday after the December meeting--about the 21st. '}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""They'll all be on Christmas vacation so they won't notice! ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'I wonder if there might be some merit in making this effective at some future date, such as the beginning of 1991, so that it takes away from it having any immediate significance.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""The trouble with that is that if we make an explicit statement that we're leaving it in until the next year we're saying it has some meaning.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""Yes, but here it is Novemberand we're talking about doing it January 1st.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""They're going to be suspicious that we have something else in the works.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""That's why you leave it alone.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""That's the problem.I couldn't care less what it says because I know what we're going to do anyway.But I think there is a problem in that--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""We're about to change.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""That's right.The worst interpretation would be if we take it out and it leaves the impression that the Committee has decided that it will no longer make any intermeeting adjustments in policy, and--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': 'Cuts back [unintelligible] on phone calls.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'This will not appear in the policy record until six weeks after this meeting.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'It will be published the Friday after the December meeting--about the 21st.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""They'll all be on Christmas vacation so they won't notice!""}]",no,,,,
398,400,19901218_109_7,MR. BOEHNE.,"""On the national economy: While the Greenbook forecast of a relatively mild, short-lived recession is plausible, my guess is that it's wrong and that we will have a longer lasting and a more serious recession.""","The District's unemployment rate, which had been below the nation's, has caught up with the nation's and I suspect will rise above it. And for the first time in a long time we now have areas in the District with unemployment rates of 7, 8, and even 9 percent. The state and local fiscal situation is very serious, particularly in Philadelphia, but it is not limited to Philadelphia. Now that the state elections are over, I think the state of Pennsylvania will have to face up to a large deficit. New Jersey, which has had huge tax increases, still has a deficit. And a number of municipalities that probably won't make The Wall Street Journal nonetheless are having very serious problems. On the national economy: While the Greenbook forecast of a relatively mild, short-lived recession is plausible, my guess is that it's wrong and that we will have a longer lasting and a more serious recession. Even if one is optimistic about how the Middle East situation will come out and about oil prices, I doubt very much whether consumer spending will bounce back with the same amount of vigor by spring as envisioned in the Greenbook. Consumers just feel chastened after a number of years of some fairly loose spending habits. And I think they're going to remain cautious. Even if the optimistic assumptions on oil and the Middle East are realized, we still are going to have high and probably rising unemployment. The consumer still has these high debt burdens, and delinquencies are rising. Also, the worries about bank safety, which are all over the talk shows and in the newspapers, just weigh on people and I think they are going to weigh on people even more. So, my guess is that we're going to see a fairly bearish consumer for longer than envisioned in the Greenbook.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""Manufacturing has been weakening longer in our District than it has in the nation, so it's at a very low level. But a number of manufacturers are building into their 1991 plans some pickup for the second half of next year. There is extreme pessimism in construction for obvious reasons. Bankers are worried to scared, depending on how close they are to retirement. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': 'Some may retire sooner than they expected! '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""It's awfully difficult to measure the impact if something were to get loose on us here in a kind of [destabilizing] way.And when we get into the policy discussion, that would be a very important determinant, at least to my mind, of how we should conduct policy.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""I would say that the sentiment is increasingly pessimistic or if it's not pessimistic, the level of concern is rising.Retailers are still hoping for a season-saving finish.They have a long weekend just before Christmas and there's still some hope; but there has been so much price discounting that even if sales do pick up, their profit margins are going to be poor.Manufacturing has been weakening longer in our District than it has in the nation, so it's at a very low level.But a number of manufacturers are building into their 1991 plans some pickup for the second half of next year.There is extreme pessimism in construction for obvious reasons.Bankers are worried to scared, depending on how close they are to retirement.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': 'Some may retire sooner than they expected!'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,sentence
399,401,19910326_242_1,MR. ANGELL.,"""It seems to me that the staff's forecast is plausible.""","It seems to me that the staff's forecast is plausible. But if I [differ] in any direction on the forecast, it is not so much in regard to the timing but that I lean toward a bit weaker view of households' penchant for consumption expenditures. My hunch is that this recession has been different from others in regard to the [buildup] of debt and that the saving rate will tend to run a little higher in this recovery period. I am slightly more optimistic in regard to net exports--although I know the staff is also optimistic--but maybe not quite enough to offset the difference of somewhat flatter consumption expenditures, if there is any difference. It just seems to me that this event, even at the manufacturing level or the business level, is going to be one in which recovery in spending may occur prior to that in unemployment. So, I would expect the unemployment rate to continue to move up and maybe to approach 7 percent, even though we have this kind of expansion. The talk about medical costs just has to be quite a factor. [Unintelligible] union collective bargaining power in terms of the desire [of business firms] to maintain somewhat leaner labor costs. So, I would expect it to be in the direction that the staff has but just slightly less than that, as I judge it. It does seem to me that the pickup in M2 growth is coinciding with some flattening of the commodity price deterioration. And the commodity prices don't look exactly the way they sometimes look in a full-fledged recovery--that is, if a full-fledged recovery were underway right now. But at the same time commodity prices certainly are not deteriorating the way they were as we were going into recession. So, it looks to me as if we're close together in regard to the outlook, but maybe with a somewhat longer and less robust recovery path.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Angell. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""I didn't intend to follow right after Roger's comments about the wind. It is true that the high plains do see heavy winds in March, but we always seem to gain soil rather than lose it. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I don't know. Would you get it from North Dakota? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""Drilling activity had actually decreased month-over-month, but that is so small that it makes very little difference probably.The one area that may be a catalyst, or an area of the economy that could give a kick start to the Tenth District, would be oil field construction and drilling equipment orders that may come as a result of the Kuwait/Iraq situation.We do have several rather large oil drilling construction companies in the District.As far as the national economy is concerned, I would agree with those who say that the second quarter probably will be flat and the third and fourth quarters will be a little less vigorous than the Greenbook forecast.But overall the Greenbook is about as good a guess as I have or as most everybody else has, I think.I'd be willing to buy it.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Angell.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""I didn't intend to follow right after Roger's comments about the wind.It is true that the high plains do see heavy winds in March, but we always seem to gain soil rather than lose it.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I don't know.Would you get it from North Dakota?""}]",yes,no,,,
400,402,19920205_129_16,MR. KELLEY.,"""If there's anything to that, layoffs are going to decline and that should help confidence.""","Mr. Chairman, I have very little substantively to try to offer today, but I would like to put out one notion. I am struck by the very strong consensus that I read in the press--and indeed it seems to be here as well--that the economy is likely to be ""flattish"" in the first quarter, that it will be a little better or that a recovery of some magnitude will occur in the second quarter, and that the economy then will move on up from there. I share that view. What worries me is that I have a bit of the contrarian in me, and I ask myself: If we have this very strong consensus, it's probably wrong, but in what direction and how? Is it too strong or too weak? Again, I'm part of the consensus, but my suspicion is that we could very well see events prove to be on the stronger side. If we were going to have a collapse, it seems to me that it would likely have been evident in the fourth quarter and would be underway now, and I don't sense that it is going on now. And the longer that doesn't appear, it seems to me the less likely that it will. It's probably too soon to rule it out, but [more strength than is projected] would seem to me to be the way things are liable to go. We have some things going for us already that should help, maybe more than we know. The short-term rates and the monetary stimulus that's in the pipeline should help. The refinancing of homes is putting more spendable income into the pockets of people every day. And I wouldn't be a bit surprised if this little uptick in long rates doesn't accelerate that [development]; and it might accelerate home sales as well. I'd also bet that the white collar layoffs have seen their peak. I think most CEOs who felt the need to lay off workers probably wanted to be able to report it in their year-end statements and got it done in the fourth quarter. If there's anything to that, layoffs are going to decline and that should help confidence. The credit crunch may be beginning to ease and the bank crisis may be beginning to ease. We're hearing here today and we read that banks are looking for good loans. My suspicion is that if they look, they're going to find them along the way. Fourth-quarter earnings of banks were better; their stock prices are up; and the loan officers' survey says that nobody is tightening anymore. So, maybe we will begin to get some relief there, although I don't think it's going to be very dramatic very quickly. On balance, I'm with the consensus but if the consensus does prove to be wrong, I think it's going to be on the up side.","[{'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': ""I don't have a very different view as to how things will turn out. I would reemphasize the point that has been made that it is by most comparisons a very conservative forecast, and it wouldn't be altogether shocking to me if the economy did somewhat better than that. The one thing that does trouble me a bit, looking at the national circumstances at the moment, is the state of the long-term bond market where clearly nothing favorable has been happening in recent weeks. Indeed, rates are at the levels they were before the discount rate cut back in December. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': ""On the negative side, some manufacturers have commented--and I think this is implicit in the charts that Mike presented--that inventories are excessive upstreamand that has started to affect them in the sense that orders have slowed and so forth.Although we're not a big textile district, our textile manufacturers are running pretty well full out, as Tom[Melzer also] commented.So, there is something going on at least in that area.With regard to the national economy, I do think the stage is set for something like the Greenbook forecast.I don't have a very different view as to how things will turn out.I would reemphasize the point that has been made that it is by most comparisons a very conservative forecast, and it wouldn't be altogether shocking to me if the economy did somewhat better than that.The one thing that does trouble me a bit, looking at the national circumstances at the moment, is the state of the long-term bond market where clearly nothing favorable has been happening in recent weeks.Indeed, rates are at the levels they were before the discount rate cut back in December.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley.'}]",yes,no,,,
401,403,19920701_289_1,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""I don't know if I like that but go ahead!""",I don't know if I like that but go ahead! [Laughter],"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I'm saying I expect that the uncertainty will continue enough that we will not get through the next Humphrey-Hawkins hearings with any real insight into what is going on. It may well be that by September or October we'll have a much better sense of what is going on and a much better feel of what the relationships are. I might add that under those conditions I would think we would then take a firm shot at 1993. I myself would not be disinclined, under those conditions, to go lower. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I think confusion demonstrates why you're such a wonderful person to represent the Fed. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""To say it is meaningless is a statement of knowledge.What we're saying is that something that had relationships has gone off the track.That basically stipulates that for this particular time it has no meaning; it is a state of knowledge we don't have.Indeed, it may be reflecting something quite significant, but we don't know that.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Implicit in your statement is that you would expect that uncertainty to continue through 1993?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""No, I don't know.I'm saying I expect that the uncertainty will continue enough that we will not get through the next Humphrey-Hawkins hearings with any real insight into what is going on.It may well be that by September or October we'll have a much better sense of what is going on and a much better feel of what the relationships are.I might add that under those conditions I would think we would then take a firm shot at 1993.I myself would not be disinclined, under those conditions, to go lower.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I think confusion demonstrates why you're such a wonderful person to represent the Fed.""}]",yes,no,,,
402,404,19921117_310_2,MR. WINN.,"""So, if you put it to a vote, it would probably go that way.""","Well, I would guess that the members of Congress are more interested in knowing the results and knowing the results quickly than in having a detailed record that comes out in three to five years. So, if you put it to a vote, it would probably go that way. On these public disclosure issues--the Freedom of Information and Government in the Sunshine Acts--the record of Congress is that whenever those kinds of bills are put before them, it is very hard not to vote for them. So, if you put the issue on the floor of the House this minute ""Is the House of Representatives in favor of immediate disclosure or not?"" there's a political bias toward immediate release of information. On the other hand, the fact that legislation like that hasn't really moved along in the Congress makes one question how much real interest there is in the subject. I don't know if that's responsive to your question, but that's the best I can do.","[{'speaker': 'MR. WINN.', 'text': ""Obviously, immediate release of FOMC decisions is the issue in the Hamilton-Dorgan Bill. Clearly, there are some members of Congress who are interested in that, but we don't know how many. That has not moved along in the Congress, but obviously some members are interested in that. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': ""I'm going to make an unfair request in terms of asking you to make a guess. Think of the members of both Committees, the Senate Committee and the House Committee; if you were to ask them whether they would rather have a complete release of a memorandum of discussion with some significant lag or early release of the directive, what do you think the response would be? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WINN.', 'text': 'I\'m afraid I don\'t have a very good answer for you because he didn\'t put the question in those terms.Although there were a number of respondents who in reacting and addressing the issue of verbatim transcripts or memoranda of discussion said such things as ""but I also favor an immediate release of the policy directive,"" that wasn\'t really the issue on the table.Obviously, immediate release of FOMC decisions is the issue in the Hamilton-Dorgan Bill.Clearly, there are some members of Congress who are interested in that, but we don\'t know how many.That has not moved along in the Congress, but obviously some members are interested in that.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': ""I'm going to make an unfair request in terms of asking you to make a guess.Think of the members of both Committees, the Senate Committee and the House Committee; if you were to ask them whether they would rather have a complete release of a memorandum of discussion with some significant lag or early release of the directive, what do you think the response would be?""}]",yes,no,,,
403,405,19930203_10_2,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""The next item on our organizational agenda is the selection of the New York Bank as the Bank to execute transactions for the System Open Market Account.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I'm legal. We now have the issue of the staff officers, and I'll request that Norm read the list. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'Secretary and Economist, Donald L. Kohn; Deputy Secretary, Normand R. V. Bernard; Assistant Secretary, Joseph R. Coyne; Assistant Secretary, Gary P. Gillum; General Counsel, J. Virgil Mattingly; Deputy General Counsel, Ernest T. Patrikis; Economist, Michael J. Prell; Economist, Edwin M. Truman. Associate Economists from the Board of Governors: David E.Lindsey; Larry J. Promisel; Charles J. Siegman; Thomas D. Simpson; and Lawrence Slifman. Associate Economists from the Federal Reserve Banks: Richard G. Davis, proposed by President Corrigan; Richard W. Lang, proposed by President Boehne; Arthur J. Rolnick, proposed by President Stern; Harvey Rosenblum, proposed by President McTeer; and Karl A. Scheld, proposed by President Keehn. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': ""I also have the great honor of nominating President Corrigan as Vice Chairman of the FOMC for as long as he may be with us and his successor thereafter for the year ending December '93.Without objection, you're now legal.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""You mean an unnamed successor?What does that do to Jerry's confidence?""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I'm not worried.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': ""Well, you're legal.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I'm legal.We now have the issue of the staff officers, and I'll request that Norm read the list.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'Secretary and Economist, Donald L. Kohn; Deputy Secretary, Normand R. V. Bernard; Assistant Secretary, Joseph R. Coyne; Assistant Secretary, Gary P. Gillum; General Counsel, J. Virgil Mattingly; Deputy General Counsel, Ernest T. Patrikis; Economist, Michael J. Prell; Economist, Edwin M. Truman.Associate Economists from the Board of Governors: David E.Lindsey; Larry J. Promisel; Charles J. Siegman; Thomas D. Simpson; and Lawrence Slifman.Associate Economists from the Federal Reserve Banks: Richard G. Davis, proposed by President Corrigan; Richard W. Lang, proposed by President Boehne; Arthur J. Rolnick, proposed by President Stern; Harvey Rosenblum, proposed by President McTeer; and Karl A. Scheld, proposed by President Keehn.'}]",no,,,,
404,406,19930518_19_3,MS. GREENE.,"""The liquidation that I spoke of--the Japanese investments--will probably at least in the first instance not be U.S. dollars.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Tom. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""Gretchen, in the [written] report there was a comment about the [market's] vulnerability to the dismantling of these longer-term investment positions--and you just mentioned it in your remarks--in Europe in particular. Do we have any sense of the magnitude of that, what dynamics might drive a liquidation, what the impact of that could be, and so forth? ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. GREENE.', 'text': 'Are you talking about intra-European investment positions? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""I'm talking about investment positions in U.S. dollars. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'In fact, I told [my colleagues] that I thought the [outcome] that day was about as good as it gets in this endeavor to intervene in the markets and not to expect that there is an easy process here by which one can readily manipulate exchange rates.To his credit Larry Summers, who is very knowledgeable about all of this, has been very cooperative with us; he has made certain to keep us fully informed about any issues and discussions that they have been involved in, and we have tried to reciprocate.Hopefully, that process will continue.Any questions for Gretchen?Tom.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""Gretchen, in the [written] report there was a comment about the [market's] vulnerability to the dismantling of these longer-term investment positions--and you just mentioned it in your remarks--in Europe in particular.Do we have any sense of the magnitude of that, what dynamics might drive a liquidation, what the impact of that could be, and so forth?""}, {'speaker': 'MS. GREENE.', 'text': 'Are you talking about intra-European investment positions?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""I'm talking about investment positions in U.S. dollars.""}]",no,,,,
405,407,19940706_425_5,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""We may end up deciding to do something.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""However, I think today is a very awkward day, and whatever we do today, we have to set the stage for a less awkward future. And while I subscribe to the basic notion endorsed by the subcommittee that we ought to announce only changes, it might be well today to indicate what the Committee's policy is and to say the Committee's policy is to announce only policy changes and then to say the meeting is concluded and we will have no announcement. I think that gets us through the situation of today but sets the stage for the future. When the announcement time passes and there is no announcement, it means there is no change. So, we have addressed the awkwardness of today and what we want to prevail as we go down the road. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. LOVETT.', 'text': 'That is what they are thinking.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, there was a subcommittee that looked at this some months ago.Others on that Committee might want to chime in, but as I recall there was a fairly strong consensus after a number of discussions that we ought to announce only when we change policy.However, I think today is a very awkward day, and whatever we do today, we have to set the stage for a less awkward future.And while I subscribe to the basic notion endorsed by the subcommittee that we ought to announce only changes, it might be well today to indicate what the Committee's policy is and to say the Committee's policy is to announce only policy changes and then to say the meeting is concluded and we will have no announcement.I think that gets us through the situation of today but sets the stage for the future.When the announcement time passes and there is no announcement, it means there is no change.So, we have addressed the awkwardness of today and what we want to prevail as we go down the road.""}]",no,,,,
406,408,19941115_241_2,MR. PARRY.,"""I have difficulty relating that to what Governor Lindsey said.""","There may be times when what you want to do for monetary policy purposes is consistent with what the Treasury wants to do to affect the exchange rate. I have difficulty relating that to what Governor Lindsey said. It sounds like he wanted a tool for all time for you to put in the closet, and I don't understand that. This Committee will have a view about what is appropriate monetary policy. It may be that today it would be consistent with what the Treasury may want to do, and that's good for today.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Other comments, questions? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. LAWARE.', 'text': 'Are we saying that dollar/yen is an interest rate phenomenon? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Differential rates of return. In other words, if most of the exchange rate moves these days against the dollar are the result of portfolio shifts rather than, say, current account deficits or flows, then the question is why do people change portfolios? And the answer is that the risk-adjusted rate of return is perceived to be better in one currency versus another. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'To have it in parallel paths or somehow related, I think the answer is obviously yes.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': ""Let's not admit it to the world.But when the phone rings in your office, if you have behind you the view of this Committee that a monetary policy change will ultimately accompany an intervention, you will have a weapon supporting you in the view that I think you really hold, and that is that intervention should be used rarely if at all.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLINDER.', 'text': ""We don't have to exercise it.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': ""We don't, but I think we should have that as the Chairman's weapon.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Other comments, questions?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LAWARE.', 'text': 'Are we saying that dollar/yen is an interest rate phenomenon?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Differential rates of return.In other words, if most of the exchange rate moves these days against the dollar are the result of portfolio shifts rather than, say, current account deficits or flows, then the question is why do people change portfolios?And the answer is that the risk-adjusted rate of return is perceived to be better in one currency versus another.'}]",yes,,,,
407,409,19950201_960_1,MR. KOHN.,"""Brian Madigan said he thought the projection of free collateral was $8 to $10 billion over some indefinite period.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'I am just trying to understand all the implications of this. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'There are balance sheets implications. The last time it happened was five years ago, as I recall. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'Yes, it was a seasonal thing, but there was a time of the year when we got very close to exhausting our regular note collateral--I think when we had $9 billion of warehousing on our balance sheet. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'What we do not know is whether the scale of things has increased enough since then combined with the fact that reserve requirements have come down so that we would have the room. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'My guess is--and it is a wild guess--that if the warehousing got up to $20 billion, we could be in that situation.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""I don't think we have an obligation to announce to Congress.We have an obligation in the sense that Governor Partee once said to Congress that we would use our foreign exchange holdings last to collateralize our Federal Reserve notes.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'If we get to that point, we can always do an off-market swap with the Japanese or the Germans.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'I am just trying to understand all the implications of this.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'There are balance sheets implications.The last time it happened was five years ago, as I recall.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'Yes, it was a seasonal thing, but there was a time of the year when we got very close to exhausting our regular note collateral--I think when we had $9 billion of warehousing on our balance sheet.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'What we do not know is whether the scale of things has increased enough since then combined with the fact that reserve requirements have come down so that we would have the room.'}]",no,,,,
408,410,19950328_201_17,MR. BOEHNE.,"""We need to try to distinguish between cyclical increases that are likely to moderate as the cycle matures and increases of a more underlying or core character.""","There are some clear signs of moderating growth in the Philadelphia District. Manufacturers in particular indicate a slackening pace that is apparent in new and unfilled orders as well as current shipments. Retailers report a slowing pace of sales, especially in autos and other durables, although I think there is considerable uncertainty among retailers as to whether this is just a temporary slackening to be followed by a pickup or the beginning of a slower trend. Residential sales and construction are in a lull and there likewise I think most realtors are not sure whether this is just a lull that will pass or the beginning of a long, dry spell. Commercial real estate conditions are soft, but the cycle seems to have bottomed out in areas of the District that show more strength. Looking across the District, even in those areas where economic activity is stronger than in others, there really is an absence of wage and price pressures. They just remain subdued and are a nonproblem. Increasingly in the District, the outlook for moderating growth is becoming the conventional wisdom, following the fast finish of last year, which temporarily raised spirits that 1995 might be a very strong year. Since the Philadelphia District has been a laggard during this expansion, there is some feeling that the good times could have lasted longer--the same view that Cathy Minehan finds in New England. For the nation, I think we need more than the usual amount of humility about our assessment of the outlook. To be sure, there are increasing signs of slowing growth, but we could be surprised either on the up side or the down side. Areas like inventories or net exports or consumption expenditures all strike me as having more potential than usual for surprises for reasons that have been discussed. How much inventory accumulation is intended or unintended? Certainly, the net export outlook has a number of crosscurrents. Since the lull in consumption expenditures has been mainly in the durables side, just how temporary is that or is it more permanent? We are likely to have some increases in inflation in 1995. We need to try to distinguish between cyclical increases that are likely to moderate as the cycle matures and increases of a more underlying or core character. In this context, a slowing of economic activity makes credible the case that we may see more of a cyclical increase than an underlying increase. But here too, we need to keep a few upticks in inflation in the context of a cycle. This comes back to the importance of gauging the strength of economic activity, and I think this is a time for monitoring.","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': ""I don't think that monetary policy can do much about that anyway. At this point, I mainly would be interested in seeing that the rate of inflation in 1996 and 1997 resumes decelerating a percentage point or two from where it has been in the last couple of years. Right now, I don't have any reason to believe that we are not on a track to achieve that result. So I am comfortable with the national forecast. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': ""I don't have any reason to quarrel with that.If I didn't think that that was going to happen, and if I thought that nominal spending growth was going to continue in the range that it was last year, then I would be a lot more concerned than I am about the prospects for inflation in 1996 and beyond.But if that forecast of total spending does materialize, then the question about inflation comes down to issues about productivity growth and the ability of this economy to expand.I am not too disturbed about what might happen in terms of reported rates of inflation for 1995.I don't think that monetary policy can do much about that anyway.At this point, I mainly would be interested in seeing that the rate of inflation in 1996 and 1997 resumes decelerating a percentage point or two from where it has been in the last couple of years.Right now, I don't have any reason to believe that we are not on a track to achieve that result.So I am comfortable with the national forecast.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne.'}]",yes,no,,,
409,411,19950523_83_3,MR. BLINDER.,"""As I look at the last four quarters of this forecast, it gives off the aura of a steady state in all aspects except one.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'It is clearest in industries like paper, but there are hints elsewhere. It is conceivable that this hump that we are looking at in our forecast could be greater and could stretch out more if it generates some broader inflationary expectations than seem to be present now or than we have anticipated in the forecast. So, I think that certainly does pose some short-run upside risk at a minimum. '}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Thank you. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Blinder. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'Now, we are in a period in which there are some vulnerabilities.The economy is still operating at a quite high level.It is being hit by a shock through the exchange rate channel.As I noted, that shock is not as great perhaps as one would surmise looking at the yen alone, but we think there is an impulse there that is going to tend to bring higher import prices and provide an umbrella for domestic producers of autos and other goods.We quite possibly still have in front of us a significant pass-through of materials cost increases.We can already see that showing up in some industries.It is clearest in industries like paper, but there are hints elsewhere.It is conceivable that this hump that we are looking at in our forecast could be greater and could stretch out more if it generates some broader inflationary expectations than seem to be present now or than we have anticipated in the forecast.So, I think that certainly does pose some short-run upside risk at a minimum.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Thank you.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Blinder.'}]",no,,,,
410,412,19950926_220_6,MR. BLINDER.,"""But it is true that we don't know what the fiscal policy is going to be.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'There would be a lot of disappointment if nothing happens here, and we could have an adverse effect on psychology across the country. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Yellen. '}, {'speaker': 'MS. YELLEN.', 'text': 'I support your proposal for ""B"" symmetric, although I do find myself very much in sympathy with President Forrestal\'s analysis. I think he has made a case for moving today, but on balance it seems to me that the timing isn\'t urgent, and I am quite content to wait. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Blinder. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': 'I support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman, for many of the reasons that were mentioned by Presidents Melzer, Parry, and Hoenig.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President McTeer.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MCTEER.', 'text': 'Just for your information, a little arithmetic exercise I did--if we have CPI increases that average two-tenths of a percent each month through December, the December-to-December rate would be 2.8 percent.I support your recommendation.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Jordan.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'I support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman.One of the things that you pointed out in your comments at our August meeting still needs to be kept in mind.There is a risk--and different people can put different probabilities on it--of fiscal fizzle.There would be a lot of disappointment if nothing happens here, and we could have an adverse effect on psychology across the country.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Yellen.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. YELLEN.', 'text': 'I support your proposal for ""B"" symmetric, although I do find myself very much in sympathy with President Forrestal\'s analysis.I think he has made a case for moving today, but on balance it seems to me that the timing isn\'t urgent, and I am quite content to wait.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Blinder.'}]",no,,,,
411,413,19951115_99_1,MR. FISHER.,"""No, no, I'm not seeking another vote.""",,"[{'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Move approval. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Is there a second? '}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Second. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Without objection. I hope there is nothing to ratify in the next segment! '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'I think it was good that we got the memo and as much information as we did because we received a lot of phone calls related to this fear of subsidizing the Japanese.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'In fact, the purpose of our discussion with the Japanese was mainly to dispel any notion of subsidization.If it were not for the fact that they are such a large presence in this banking system, there really would not be an issue.But if they were to run into trouble, we could be dealing with very large numbers.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': ""I think the individuals I spoke to realized that.That's why they were saying that if a problem were to occur, we might get involved in a discount window loan; and lending at the basic discount rate would mean a big subsidy.The issue was why would we allow that, and on and on it went.Because they had this piece of misinformation, their concerns multiplied very quickly.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'It happens.Further questions for Peter?Train wreck?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'We need a vote to ratify the domestic operations.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I missed three out of three![Laughter]'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Move approval.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Is there a second?'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Second.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Without objection.I hope there is nothing to ratify in the next segment!'}]",no,,,,
412,414,19951115_311_3,MR. MELZER.,"""I believe it maintains a stance of policy that is somewhat restrictive.""","Thanks, Alan. I favor alternative B. I believe it maintains a stance of policy that is somewhat restrictive. It is very difficult to define exactly how restrictive, but I think that's quite appropriate given the inflation outlook. I would say that looking forward we need to be particularly vigilant with respect to the possibility of rising inflation expectations and inflation. For that reason, I strongly prefer a symmetric directive. As Al Broaddus and some others have mentioned, asymmetry at this point would signal that we are quite happy with 3 percent inflation and we implicitly define that as our view of price stability. I also agree with what Gary Stern said about the importance of how we make decisions going forward and having that discussion with respect to whether we want to reduce inflation systematically or simply act opportunistically. Finally, I think that trying to coordinate our actions with different possibilities on the fiscal front based on how an action might be perceived later is the wrong way to think about the issue. We have to make the best call we can today based on the fundamentals as we see them. If the fundamentals argue that we should act later, we should worry about managing perceptions at that time. I don't hear anybody making that case, but we have to be very careful that we don't justify an action that is not supported by the fundamentals and is based instead on the view that the perception of what we did was better than if we did act on the fundamentals.","[{'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'The public disenchantment with the budget process is high and going to get higher. That in itself is a shock. But I think the Fed would be sending a very appropriate signal that we are above the process in all meanings of the word ""above."" So I would support a reduction in the funds rate today. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Melzer. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'The international picture is another, be it instability in Japan and Europe, which I don\'t see as growing, or in Mexico.The risk of a fiscal misstep is still another that could tip the economy over.So, I see the yield curve as signalling that in fact we should be reducing rates today.I also want to associate myself with Governor Blinder in the ""let\'s not get caught flatfooted"" waiting for the Congress and the President to act.It is conceivable that they will not produce a fiscal agreement for fiscal 1996.The government could be operating on a continuing resolution forever.So, we certainly don\'t want to wait that long.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Less than forever is better.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'Less than forever is better, yes.I think today actually would be a very opportune time to move for exactly that reason.The public disenchantment with the budget process is high and going to get higher.That in itself is a shock.But I think the Fed would be sending a very appropriate signal that we are above the process in all meanings of the word ""above.""So I would support a reduction in the funds rate today.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Melzer.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,entailment,utterance
413,415,19960703_298_1,MR. MEYER.,"""I came too late to take credit for it""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'It is 2 percent. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Okay. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MEYER.', 'text': 'So we are there. Congratulations. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'No, you miss the point. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Since we have already come to a major conclusion, I will ask, what in the world are we talking about?If anyone would like to address that issue, be my guest.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'It seems to me that when Janet and Al were talking, they had implicit in their minds something like a CPI or core CPI.They were able to generate some consensus or agreement about the desirability of reducing the rate of CPI inflation from its current level of about 3 percent down to 2 percent.That is the critical point.If one wants to focus on a different index, let the staff make a suggestion and maybe we will start out with an inflation rate of, say, 2 percent and go down to 1 percent.I do not think that is the critical issue.I think the critical issue is --'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Hold the line where we are.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Hold the line and come down one percentage point.That is the critical issue.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'And be explicit about it.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MEYER.', 'text': 'What do you think the PCE deflator is now?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""I don't know.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'It is 2 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Okay.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MEYER.', 'text': 'So we are there.Congratulations.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'No, you miss the point.'}]",no,,,,
414,416,19961113_28_3,MR. PRELL.,"""Given that we feel that GDP growth may have been underestimated, it is not inconceivable that a part of those revenues could be in consumption expenditures.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': '[Laughter] Slowing things down, we move to Mike Prell. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'Thank you. [Statement--see Appendix.] '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Mike, granted all the problems with the data, there seems to be a gradual uptrend in the last two or three years in the measured personal saving rate in the context of a very rapid rise in household wealth. If we were to take the published personal saving rate and adjust it for the econometric evidence of the impact of changes in household wealth on that statistic, is there any question as to whether we would be looking at a secular updrift? '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'SEVERAL.Aye.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Opposed?The Secretary will note that both motions passed unanimously.Would you like to move to our domestic discussion?[Laughter] Wait a second!Have we ratified the domestic market transactions?SEVERAL.Yes, we did.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Oh, that was the second vote!'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'We are just moving too fast!'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'No, the trouble is jet lag, and even though Peter and I were on the same plane, his jet lag is different from mine.[Laughter] Slowing things down, we move to Mike Prell.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'Thank you.[Statement--see Appendix.]'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Mike, granted all the problems with the data, there seems to be a gradual uptrend in the last two or three years in the measured personal saving rate in the context of a very rapid rise in household wealth.If we were to take the published personal saving rate and adjust it for the econometric evidence of the impact of changes in household wealth on that statistic, is there any question as to whether we would be looking at a secular updrift?'}]",no,,,,
415,417,19970205_131_1,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""That is about as good a ""Chart Show"" as the staff has presented to this Committee in quite a long time.""","That is about as good a ""Chart Show"" as the staff has presented to this Committee in quite a long time.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Without objection. Let us move on to Messrs. Prell and Truman. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Chairman. [Statement--see Appendix.] '}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.] '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'But I think even if no bank is bound, there still will be a demand for balances at the Federal Reserve.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'I do not doubt that.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""And still something for Peter to operate on in carrying out the Committee's policies.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'As balances have gone down, has anything happened with daylight overdrafts?Is there any pattern in what we are observing?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""I don't think so.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'I agree with Don.I generally think of the cause-effect as running the other way.We had the change in behavior in daylight overdrafts when our policy changes were implemented five or six years ago, and we are now seeing the pass-through.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Further questions?If not, would somebody like to move to ratify the operations of the Domestic Desk?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'So move.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Without objection.We also need to approve the increased intermeeting leeway for Peter.Would somebody like to move that?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'Move approval of $12 billion.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Is there a second?'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Second.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Without objection.Let us move on to Messrs. Prell and Truman.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Chairman.[Statement--see Appendix.]'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.]'}]",yes,no,,,
416,418,19980331_30_5,VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.,"""The rest of us play a game where the ratios mean something, but for the Japanese banks they really do not.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'Oh, it is still positive; we can still see it. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'If I could make a comment: The people in the market think that the single least wise thing the Japanese could have done was to reconstitute the convoy system. But that is exactly what they have done. As a result, the view is that the 19 largest banks have become a sovereign credit, and therefore the premium was created and there is still a premium. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The premium has to be a reflection of doubts about the sovereign credit. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'What possible use are they to me in judging the safety and soundness of Japanese institutions if they are produced as if somebody had lit a match under the thermometer?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': ""I think the counterparties of the major Japanese banks are looking, unfortunately, at the implicit Japanese government guarantee that appears to have been reaffirmed.I don't think they are trading on the basis of the capital adequacy numbers when they are trading with Japanese institutions.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'What has been the latest premium in the London market on yen deposits for Japanese banks?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'It has come down to under 20 basis points.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'But it is still positive?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'Oh, it is still positive; we can still see it.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'If I could make a comment: The people in the market think that the single least wise thing the Japanese could have done was to reconstitute the convoy system.But that is exactly what they have done.As a result, the view is that the 19 largest banks have become a sovereign credit, and therefore the premium was created and there is still a premium.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The premium has to be a reflection of doubts about the sovereign credit.'}]",no,,,,
417,419,19980929_228_8,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""They would take the loan portfolio and point to the vulnerabilities and strengths of the borrowers and give their evaluations of the risks that were involved.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. SPILLENKOTHEN.', 'text': ""That's a question we have to go back and take a look at. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Where we are most vulnerable is with regard to the adequacy of our examinations. We rarely come up against a situation where we say this is awful, the institution is falling apart, and we did not spot the deterioration. For example, when we looked into the Japanese operation in New York in which the embezzlement occurred--SEVERAL. Daiwa. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. SPILLENKOTHEN.', 'text': ""At this point, I cannot say whether we looked at the particular relationship you mentioned, but we do look at and test to see whether a bank's policies are being implemented.We do not do that for every counterparty by any means.We do a spot check.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'Rich, it could well be that, with the rapid growth of LTCP and the increasing involvement of banks in dealing with hedge funds, the banks may not even have been dealing with LTCP at the time of the previous exam.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SPILLENKOTHEN.', 'text': ""Yes, that previous exam probably would have been as of the middle of 1997.That exam would have been over a year old.That's a question we have to go back and take a look at.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Where we are most vulnerable is with regard to the adequacy of our examinations.We rarely come up against a situation where we say this is awful, the institution is falling apart, and we did not spot the deterioration.For example, when we looked into the Japanese operation in New York in which the embezzlement occurred--SEVERAL.Daiwa.'}]",no,,,,
418,420,19990630_116_3,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""He would appreciate having any changes in your forecasts by close of business on Wednesday, July 7.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': ""Until we see the whites of the eyes of inflation, premature Fed moves do not let the new high productivity American economy reach its full potential. The arguments for a stronger tap are that the present funds rate may be too low by more than a slight amount, that it is difficult to raise interest rates, and that there are lags both in monetary policy and in the inflation process. In being too cautious and not taking advantage of windows of opportunity, delayed Fed moves let inflation heat up again after years of painful sacrifice to bring it under control. I'm not going to say where I am on this except to say that these were years of painful sacrifice. [Laughter] ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': 'None of these indicators is perfect, but all are starting to point in the same direction.Let me step ahead and talk about the ""tap on the brakes"" issue.Should there be a slight tap on the brakes or a stronger tap?The argument for a slight tap is that there is still a great deal of forecasting uncertainty in all of this and there is still time to make future changes if new data confirm our suspicions.Until we see the whites of the eyes of inflation, premature Fed moves do not let the new high productivity American economy reach its full potential.The arguments for a stronger tap are that the present funds rate may be too low by more than a slight amount, that it is difficult to raise interest rates, and that there are lags both in monetary policy and in the inflation process.In being too cautious and not taking advantage of windows of opportunity, delayed Fed moves let inflation heat up again after years of painful sacrifice to bring it under control.I\'m not going to say where I am on this except to say that these were years of painful sacrifice.[Laughter]'}]",no,,,,
419,421,19990630_128_2,MR. MEYER.,"""Another consideration, given the importance of the monetary aggregates in our decisionmaking, is the less said about them the better.""","Mr. Chairman, I strongly support your views on this. Another consideration, given the importance of the monetary aggregates in our decisionmaking, is the less said about them the better. [Laughter]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'So, I agree with your recommendation. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Minehan. '}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'I totally agree with your recommendation. There is one thing I feel strongly about and that is not conveying the sense to the world that we have a settled notion of what long-term trend productivity is now. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Meyer. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'I think your advice and recommendation are right on target.I think we ought to keep this off the table.We have enough difficulties explaining where we are and what we are trying to do with monetary policy; it would serve no purpose to confuse matters with this unimportant issue now.So, I support your recommendation.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Vice Chair.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, on this issue I feel strongly only about one thingand that is that the fellow who has to go up and explain this should have the option of deciding what he wishes to explain or not explain.Therefore, I support fully your recommendation.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I thank you, sir.President Moskow.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I agree completely.I don't think it serves any useful purpose to open this up to a wide range of discussion at this point.So, I agree with your recommendation.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Minehan.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'I totally agree with your recommendation.There is one thing I feel strongly about and that is not conveying the sense to the world that we have a settled notion of what long-term trend productivity is now.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Meyer.'}]",yes,,,,
420,422,19990824_15_7,MR. FISHER.,"""I would be inclined to pursue it that way--by prohibiting them from using the program.""","Let me distinguish a couple of things. First, if I thought the management of any dealer firm was not taking seriously the intent of our program, we would escalate the issue rather quickly. I believe the problem we've had in the first three months of the program is that some traders looked to take what advantage they could of it and did not understand the last resort nature of our program. So, in each case where this has happened--where a dealer appeared to have a large position and was also bidding in our auction--we suspended their bidding for that issue until such time as we were persuaded that their position was more in line with the intended usage of our program. We have discussed already, Cathy, that if there were multiple infractions from a single dealer and the management didn't amend its ways, the first step would be to suspend them from use of the program for a year or some period like that. We are still discussing what constitutes a ""strike"" and whether our rule should be two strikes or three strikes and you're out. I would be inclined to pursue it that way--by prohibiting them from using the program. I think the analogy to the Salomon case is a little extreme. I don't want to overplay it, but raising the limits per issue-","[{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""Peter, I don't have a problem with the proposed change in the limits under the SOMA securities lending program, but I do have a question. Apparently you have identified more than one dealer misusing the program, trying to gain some kind of dominance in a particular issue at a particular time. I know that in such cases you disallow their participation in the program until they give some evidence of having changed their strategy, but I just wonder whether that's a significant enough punishment. There are aspects of this that go to the Salomon situation. I wonder whether their primary dealer relationship should be at stake. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': ""I will need the Committee's ratification of the domestic operations in the period.Also, I sent to the Committee a memorandum on August 9, explaining my intention to raise the per-issue limit in our securities lending program from 25 percent to 45 percent.I would be happy to answer any questions about that at this time or on any other aspect of my report, before your vote to ratify the domestic operations.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Questions for Peter?President Minehan.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""Peter, I don't have a problem with the proposed change in the limits under the SOMA securities lending program, but I do have a question.Apparently you have identified more than one dealer misusing the program, trying to gain some kind of dominance in a particular issue at a particular time.I know that in such cases you disallow their participation in the program until they give some evidence of having changed their strategy, but I just wonder whether that's a significant enough punishment.There are aspects of this that go to the Salomon situation.I wonder whether their primary dealer relationship should be at stake.""}]",yes,no,,,
421,423,20000202_333_6,MR. FERGUSON.,"""So a move of 25 basis points seems to me moderate and appropriate.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I agree with both halves of your recommendation. I think we should reinforce markets when they are right and I think they are right in their expectations. Secondly I, like others, am moved by the uncertainties that we have talked about, but I also recognize that inflation does not appear at this stage to be on the verge of a virulent outbreak. So a move of 25 basis points seems to me moderate and appropriate. I think you're absolutely right in suggesting that over time we can and will continue to look at the reaction of markets generally, including the asset markets where I do think, as I said yesterday, there is likely to be some underlying turbulence. Finally, on the outlook sentence I believe the statement that suggests the risks are balanced toward inflation is obviously the right one to use because it does not take back all the other things that we're doing.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MEYER.', 'text': 'The way to think about that is that once we get to trend growth and the unemployment rate stabilizes, we have assumed that our policy setting and strategy are consistent with stable inflation and the output gap is basically zero. If inflation then begins to rise, not only do we have to respond to the increase in inflation the way we ordinarily would, we also have to revise our estimate of the output gap. That requires a more aggressive response to inflation than would otherwise be the case. So, those are a few thoughts that at least shape my views of the strategy going forward. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Ferguson. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MEYER.', 'text': ""As uncertain as we are about the output gap, that uncertainty about whether or not we are beyond the economy's potential diminishes very greatly as the output gap increases based on our best estimate of potential.And the third issue I think we are going to have to focus on in this strategy is just how aggressively we should move against higher inflation.To the extent that we have down weighted our response to increases in the output gap, when inflation rises we have to be more aggressive than we would otherwise be.The way to think about that is that once we get to trend growth and the unemployment rate stabilizes, we have assumed that our policy setting and strategy are consistent with stable inflation and the output gap is basically zero.If inflation then begins to rise, not only do we have to respond to the increase in inflation the way we ordinarily would, we also have to revise our estimate of the output gap.That requires a more aggressive response to inflation than would otherwise be the case.So, those are a few thoughts that at least shape my views of the strategy going forward.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Ferguson.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,entailment,utterance
422,424,20000628_158_19,MR. KOHN.,"""They need to know how much labor to supply to the markets and how to mix capital and labor in the production process in order to end up on the production possibility frontier.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'In a lifecycle sense they say, ""We are richer: Our 401(k)s are doing better, our company\'s pensions are better, and our probability of being laid off is lower."" Somehow they perceive that they are richer and can afford to consume more in the present as well as in the future. And thus being richer, even if they perceive that their wages currently have lagged behind the increase in the value on the margin of their labor, if they have a wealth effect in a sense there is no wage lag. There is no catch-up and rebalancing of returns to capital and returns to labor implied. There is no adjustment to be made. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'So there is some notion that these are different participants in this economy and that those who are the owners of capital gain for a while relative to those who are the workers.Maybe.At the same time, in some of our analysis of what is going on in the economy we have something called wealth effects.There the idea is that people in this long sustained prosperity have reduced their concerns about layoffs, have seen various aspects of their current/future consumption tradeoff altered, and perceive that their permanent income has risen.In a lifecycle sense they say, ""We are richer: Our 401(k)s are doing better, our company\'s pensions are better, and our probability of being laid off is lower.""Somehow they perceive that they are richer and can afford to consume more in the present as well as in the future.And thus being richer, even if they perceive that their wages currently have lagged behind the increase in the value on the margin of their labor, if they have a wealth effect in a sense there is no wage lag.There is no catch-up and rebalancing of returns to capital and returns to labor implied.There is no adjustment to be made.'}]",no,,,,
423,425,20010515_31_7,MS. JOHNSON.,"""So in some sense it's not a done deal.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KOS.', 'text': 'The Canadians are still having some internal discussions about the swap issue, but I think there\'s a good chance that they may come around to that view as well. So it seems that some more discussion is needed until everybody agrees. I think we may be close, with ""close"" measured in months rather than weeks. So we may be there soon. Karen, do you want to add anything? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOS.', 'text': 'With the change in Administration, Karen Johnson and I initiated conversations with Treasury officials to ask them about their view of the swaps and the utility they saw in the swaps.They were very open to the idea of having discussions with their counterparts in Mexico and Canada to see whether they could perhaps be cajoled into viewing the swaps in the same way that many people here and some at the Treasury do--namely, that perhaps they have outlived their usefulness.The Mexicans in particular have some difficulties with ending the swaps this year, although in principle they were open to the idea that the day may soon come when the swap arrangements are no longer needed.The Canadians are still having some internal discussions about the swap issue, but I think there\'s a good chance that they may come around to that view as well.So it seems that some more discussion is needed until everybody agrees.I think we may be close, with ""close"" measured in months rather than weeks.So we may be there soon.Karen, do you want to add anything?'}]",no,,,,
424,426,20021106_173_5,MR. PARRY.,"""I also like the proposal for the ACF.""","Mr. Chairman, starting out with the fifth point, it seems to me that it is a very good staff study, and I hope that it will be released at some point for public comment and discussion. As for the options suggested for additional study, I favor consideration of the purchase of Ginnie Mae securities. Where such fully federally guaranteed debt is available, there is a presumption, I believe, that it should be included in our portfolio. And if I remember correctly, at our previous meeting there was considerable support for looking at that alternative. I also like the proposal for the ACF. It seems to me that the experience we would get from the ACF would be useful for creating a contingency ACF if that were needed. Given current projections for the federal budget, however, we are not pressed for time on these alternatives.","[{'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': ""The foreword will also include an explanation that the study is a historical document that represents what we understood in January 2001 and has not been updated. That needs to be said in part because of--and the Committee hasn't discussed them--some procedural changes that have evolved since then, including importantly the adoption of the Lombard facility. If you have any particular advice about what else should be in that foreword, we'd appreciate having it. In summary, those are the issues on which Dino and I would like to get your views today. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': ""In addition, it seemed desirable to have those in academia and the markets think harder about the issues the System should consider in determining what to put on the books of the System Open Market Account.So the fifth item we're asking for is approval to publish this staff study in the upcoming intermeeting period once final edits are completed.We're not seeking a vote, as this study is not an official document of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Federal Reserve Board, or Federal Reserve Banks.We intend to include a foreword to the document that will make that explicit.The foreword will also include an explanation that the study is a historical document that represents what we understood in January 2001 and has not been updated.That needs to be said in part because of--and the Committee hasn't discussed them--some procedural changes that have evolved since then, including importantly the adoption of the Lombard facility.If you have any particular advice about what else should be in that foreword, we'd appreciate having it.In summary, those are the issues on which Dino and I would like to get your views today.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry.'}]",yes,no,,,
425,427,20030129_289_1,MS. JOHNSON.,"""Well, it's a tough situation.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""If you have any bricks handy, [laughter] I invite you to do it because that's why--a year and a half into the crisis--the Argentines still haven't figured out who's going to pay even a piece of the bill, whereas at this point in time the Asians are busy growing again. The problem is largely within Argentina; it's a political problem, and people are still dancing around it. The United States is obviously in a very difficult situation because it's hard to do the brick throwing without looking like a heavy to somebody, particularly to the people hit on the head with a brick. The chances of it somehow all coming out favorably don't look good. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'We can have an amendment to the Sarbanes-Oxley bill to the effect that the accounting is to apply to the IMF as well as everybody else! '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""As far as I know, the Argentine politicians drew that conclusion, too.So until somebody is prepared to hit those people over the head with a brick and tell them that this isn't the way the world works, this is going to continue.If you have any bricks handy, [laughter] I invite you to do it because that's why--a year and a half into the crisis--the Argentines still haven't figured out who's going to pay even a piece of the bill, whereas at this point in time the Asians are busy growing again.The problem is largely within Argentina; it's a political problem, and people are still dancing around it.The United States is obviously in a very difficult situation because it's hard to do the brick throwing without looking like a heavy to somebody, particularly to the people hit on the head with a brick.The chances of it somehow all coming out favorably don't look good.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'We can have an amendment to the Sarbanes-Oxley bill to the effect that the accounting is to apply to the IMF as well as everybody else!'}]",no,,,,
426,428,20030506_35_5,MR. STOCKTON.,"""Second, some of the revisions that we made to the second half of the year had less to do with the actual data we were seeing on the various spending categories and more with what we were seeing on the production and employment side.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""David, I have a question about plant and equipment spending. In the last forecast you indicated that geopolitical uncertainties and risks were likely to be taking a toll on businesses' plans for equipment and software spending. Of course, to some extent those concerns have been resolved, but the forecast for plant and equipment spending in the second half of the year has been revised down significantly. Does that suggest that there are more-fundamental factors that have been at work for quite a few quarters in terms of the weakness in plant and equipment spending? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""As is the case with the domestic forecast, despite quite favorable outcomes of many events related to the Iraqi conflict, we have revised down the path of foreign GDP.Most of the downward revision is due to our estimate of the near-term effects of SARS on global growth.The weaker projection for U.S. real output growth is a factor as well, particularly for Canada and Mexico.The more favorable oil price developments and some buoyancy in global financial markets provide a small offset.That concludes our remarks.We'd be happy to answer any questions.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Questions for our colleagues?President Parry.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""David, I have a question about plant and equipment spending.In the last forecast you indicated that geopolitical uncertainties and risks were likely to be taking a toll on businesses' plans for equipment and software spending.Of course, to some extent those concerns have been resolved, but the forecast for plant and equipment spending in the second half of the year has been revised down significantly.Does that suggest that there are more-fundamental factors that have been at work for quite a few quarters in terms of the weakness in plant and equipment spending?""}]",no,,,,
427,429,20030625_36_7,MR. PARRY.,"""One concept that I thought was extremely interesting was the issue raised about changing expectations.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I would agree with you that, if we were thinking about answering the four questions in order to come up with a tactical plan, the exercise wouldn't be very productive. But it seems to me, based upon the information provided by Vincent and his colleagues, that there's a lot of information that could prove to be useful under certain future circumstances. That leads me to believe that it is worth studying some of the issues raised in these papers. For example, there was a question asked by Vincent about alternative instruments. I'd like to know a lot more about some of these alternatives--clearly the use of the discount window and also longer-term Treasury securities. One concept that I thought was extremely interesting was the issue raised about changing expectations. I think it would be very interesting to find out a little more about the effect on expectations of making clearer to the public our views on what rates of inflation we would find desirable. Those kinds of studies are not in my view part of any tactical plan that we might implement in the future, but they may contribute to our understanding of how we might want to react to certain events. I've tried to talk about the desirability of making our views clearer on inflation rates without using the ""T"" word. [Laughter]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': ""My suspicion is that, if it were growing at 4 or 5 percent or more, we wouldn't be very concerned--even with price indexes going up at a rate of 1 percent or so, plus or minus--about the possibility of deflation. If that judgment is right, then what we're really concerned about is the pace of economic growth. So what it seems we should be involved in, at least for the moment, is a fairly traditional exercise of economic stimulus in an effort to further boost aggregate demand. That suggests to me that for now our primary focus should be on our incremental policy changes, if any. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': ""Again, as in the case of our own Depression, those conditions seem to be largely absent in our economy today.The third possible reason I come up with for our concern today has to do with disappointment about the rate of growth in the economy.Depending on what time period one selects, the economy has been growing at 11/2 to 21/2 or 3 percent over the last group of quarters.My suspicion is that, if it were growing at 4 or 5 percent or more, we wouldn't be very concerned--even with price indexes going up at a rate of 1 percent or so, plus or minus--about the possibility of deflation.If that judgment is right, then what we're really concerned about is the pace of economic growth.So what it seems we should be involved in, at least for the moment, is a fairly traditional exercise of economic stimulus in an effort to further boost aggregate demand.That suggests to me that for now our primary focus should be on our incremental policy changes, if any.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,,
428,430,20031028_243_12,MR. OLSON.,"""That's a component of the Gramlich memo that I find particularly appealing.""","Well, working backward, I also would be in favor of taking our time on this because I do think it's important. I don't think we have any reason to rush. I found the Gramlich memo appealing but for a reason that I haven't heard stated, and that is that maximum sustainable employment and low inflation are our public policy mandate. Those of us who have been through the confirmation process were reminded of that in our confirmation hearings. I didn't look at the transcripts of the recent hearings; but I suspect that, if Senator Sarbanes or some others were there, the nominees may well have been reminded of that dual mandate. I don't see those objectives as requiring a benchmark of any more numeric specificity than what we now have. I was involved in an exercise about a year ago with President Broaddus and others in which we reviewed our strategic direction. When we talked about the monetary policy role, we came back to that congressional mandate as the starting point. So from that perspective, Governor Gramlich's wording appeals to me. Also, I suspect that the Federal Reserve Act will not change significantly over the next few years, so it seems to me that, if we have that as the starting point, it's also likely that we could stay with such a format. I'm also an incrementalist, and I think we should not make a lot of changes. That's a component of the Gramlich memo that I find particularly appealing.","[{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""If we're convinced that it does something good, then we have any number of formulations of language to go with. If we're not convinced, then maybe we can find a way to tell the markets that they will find out what we did and why, but we're going to stop speculating on the risks. I don't care if we use a task force in the interim. That's fine by me. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Olson. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'We may be right, or we may be wrong; but we should not be making policy--or even talking about policy--that\'s aimed at changing how the markets operate.They have to operate a bit independently of us, I think.So in the short term I think we did the right thing today.Between now and January we probably will be coming to an appreciation of the risks being more balanced.That will change the language.That will help us get out of the ""considerable period"" terminology.In January--my personal preference is to take a real step back and think long and hard about what the risk statement does for us.If we\'re convinced that it does something good, then we have any number of formulations of language to go with.If we\'re not convinced, then maybe we can find a way to tell the markets that they will find out what we did and why, but we\'re going to stop speculating on the risks.I don\'t care if we use a task force in the interim.That\'s fine by me.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Olson.'}]",yes,no,,,
429,431,20040630_67_2,MS. JOHNSON.,"""[Laughter] But it is hard to see anywhere on earth, with the possible exception of some Asian countries, where the governments themselves perceive the scope of using fiscal policy in that way, whether they could do it well or not.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. GAGNON.', 'text': 'You might not like the other consequences. But the answer to your question is yes. While we did not actually run those types of simulations, the logic of the model is such that fiscal policy could help in that regard. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Has there ever been in the international arena any evidence that governments have responded to crises by appropriate use of fiscal policy? [Laughter] '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': ""If one looks at this, the real cost of the disorderly adjustment is the decline in foreign GDP.And that, in turn, seems to come about--you have everybody following a Taylor rule, but then the zero bound is a constraint--because countries can't lower interest rates as much as they have to in order to stabilize their economies.So the question is, What about fiscal policy?Would it be possible for fiscal adjustments, either here or abroad, to stabilize these foreign GDPs?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GAGNON.', 'text': 'Fiscal policy certainly could help.The models are such that if you want to hit a target, you can raise or lower taxes or raise spending enough to help to some extent.You might not like the other consequences.But the answer to your question is yes.While we did not actually run those types of simulations, the logic of the model is such that fiscal policy could help in that regard.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Has there ever been in the international arena any evidence that governments have responded to crises by appropriate use of fiscal policy?[Laughter]'}]",no,,,,
430,432,20040810_120_2,MS. MINEHAN.,"""I like your concept of ""opportunistic disaccommodation.""""","I certainly agree that your proposal is the right thing to do at this time. I like your concept of ""opportunistic disaccommodation."" I don't know exactly what it means, but I like that concept! We are in a position to move now, and a move today will be well understood. It's well priced into the market. It won't have a big market effect, and it takes us in the direction we want to go. You mentioned toward the end of your remarks ""going to neutral,"" wherever that might be. That's a really interesting question right now. Where is neutral? I find the chart in the Bluebook, with the wiggly shaded area that goes up and down again on the estimated ranges of equilibrium rates of interest, somewhat of a puzzle. I know I need to think about that more, but it doesn't affect how I feel about the policy decision today. I think a 1/4 point increase in the funds rate target is the right thing to do. I don't know what to do about the statement. I have some sympathy for trying to get out of giving the market too much confidence about what we're doing. You seemed to reflect a bit of concern about that in your questions earlier. I'm worried about that because I think we need to look at the data as they come in and we need to have some flexibility in how we assess conditions moving forward. I worry about the market continually believing that it knows exactly how we're going to act. But at this stage of the game, maybe it's okay that the market knows what to expect in terms of our policy. So I guess I'd go with your recommendations on the alternative B formulation. I certainly hope that we can get ourselves to a situation in which Vincent's recommended language, or something like it, is where we end our statements. I'd prefer to leave people hanging a little as we go forward and not be quite so confident about what we're going to do. But for now this approach is good.","[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': ""Our statement focuses on the first differences part of employment, not on the levels. Maybe we ought to commission our drafting committee to think about a different way of referring to the employment picture. I wouldn't do it this time, but in general we might want the statement to focus more on levels of employment and not so much on recent changes, for the reason you suggested. That's one of the things I'd put on the agenda to deal with in the statement as time goes on, but for this meeting I would go right down the line with alternative B. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Minehan. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': ""In my view you are right that, if we don't mention them at all, it will look as if we're vaguely out of touch.On the statement itself, you may be right on the employment side.Essentially, the way I'm interpreting what you say is that you're criticizing employment in the first difference sense because the 32,000 is a number that is estimated with error on the base of millions of people being employed.I still look at employment a lot for output gap purposes, just to see how far the expansion has to run.Our statement focuses on the first differences part of employment, not on the levels.Maybe we ought to commission our drafting committee to think about a different way of referring to the employment picture.I wouldn't do it this time, but in general we might want the statement to focus more on levels of employment and not so much on recent changes, for the reason you suggested.That's one of the things I'd put on the agenda to deal with in the statement as time goes on, but for this meeting I would go right down the line with alternative B.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Minehan.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,entailment,utterance
431,433,20050202_108_6,MS. JOHNSON.,"""And the random walk--that is, no change from today--in a statistical sense outperforms on average any of the alternatives that have been suggested.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""I was a little surprised at the forecast of no decline in the value of the dollar. Your alternative simulation seems as though it's relatively close to what we've experienced since 2002. You had mentioned that the dollar is down 27 percent since the peak in 2002. That's roughly three years, and that's not terribly different from 10 percent at an annual pace, which is what I understood you to say in talking about the simulation. Maybe I understood you wrong. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STRUCKMEYER.', 'text': 'For core inflation in 2006, the central tendency remains at 11/2 to 13/4 percent.Mr. Chairman, that completes our presentation.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Do you have a forecast of current account balances for the world, including the discrepancies?'}, {'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'I do.Do you want me to give you some figures?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I'd actually like to see the whole table.Does it have data for individual countries?""}, {'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'We have several tables that cover all of the countries we forecast and then we have the global--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Could somebody just bring it around to me rather than have you read it?Other questions for our colleagues?President Minehan.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""I was a little surprised at the forecast of no decline in the value of the dollar.Your alternative simulation seems as though it's relatively close to what we've experienced since 2002.You had mentioned that the dollar is down 27 percent since the peak in 2002.That's roughly three years, and that's not terribly different from 10 percent at an annual pace, which is what I understood you to say in talking about the simulation.Maybe I understood you wrong.""}]",no,,,,
432,434,20050809_195_4,MR. SANTOMERO.,"""That's the only issue that I would address.""","Just to rejoin, I wouldn't describe this as a ""rapidly"" improving labor market but I would argue that it is improving--period. That's probably a better characterization of the last 12 months, the year to date, and the last three months. Numbers of 180,000 are indicative of a pretty good job market. That's the only issue that I would address. I wouldn't object to this wording. I just don't think it's as descriptive as it might be.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""If we look at 6-month moving averages of employment growth, we've been stuck in the same range for quite a while now. The initial claims have come down a little, but they haven't really come down that much. So in my mind, improving gradually means that we're gradually using up what little remaining slack is there. And I don't think the situation has changed materially over the intermeeting period; those averages remain about what they were. We're somewhat above the sort of steady state that we need. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Santomero.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SANTOMERO.', 'text': 'I support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman.The only thing I would do to adjust the alternative B language is to think about removing the word ""gradually.""If this is gradual, I don\'t know what rapid is.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kohn.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Chairman.I support your recommendation.Unlike President Minehan, I don\'t really look forward to evolving the language.[Laughter] On the ""gradually"" issue, I guess I don\'t think things have changed all that much.If we look at 6-month moving averages of employment growth, we\'ve been stuck in the same range for quite a while now.The initial claims have come down a little, but they haven\'t really come down that much.So in my mind, improving gradually means that we\'re gradually using up what little remaining slack is there.And I don\'t think the situation has changed materially over the intermeeting period; those averages remain about what they were.We\'re somewhat above the sort of steady state that we need.'}]",yes,no,,,
433,435,20060629_82_1,MR. FISHER.,"""Well, actually we have that on our website, Mr. Chairman.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'That is my report, Mr. Chairman. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Fisher, who were the respondents in that survey you were quoting about price changes? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'For health care? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'No. You were talking about what share of price changes were above 3 percent. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'All of these prices seem to be moving, and we do seem to be seeing, for the first time, a confirmation from our private-sector contacts that price expectations are rolling into pricing behavior.One last comment.I spoke earlier and others have spoken about liquidity in the marketplace, and I reported about the desire of one utility to put together a $10 billion project that will entail 12 million manhours.They raised $11 billion for the project.The money is now in the bank, nonrecourse financing at 225 basis points over Libor.Also, you may have seen that Anadarko is effecting a merger or, rather, an acquisition of two separate companies.The CEO of Anadarko is on our Board.He reported that they raised $22 billion ""at breathtaking speed.""Indeed, in both transactions, three houses chose to do the entire transaction in-house.That is my report, Mr. Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Fisher, who were the respondents in that survey you were quoting about price changes?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'For health care?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'No.You were talking about what share of price changes were above 3 percent.'}]",no,,,,
434,437,20060920_38_1,MR. KOS.,"""I was willing to go that far.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': '[Laughter] '}, {'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': 'Yes. There is something happening at the near end. [Laughter] '}, {'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': ""That's not very bold, Vince. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. MOSSER.', 'text': 'These are purely the differences between the nominals and the reals.One reason that we always include the five-year five-year-forward breakeven rate is that it is the forward that is easiest to calculate--but where energy prices and carry have the smallest effect.So if you want to get the clearest reading from pure market data, it would be the five-year five-year-forward rate.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': 'I understand and appreciate that.Thanks.My impression, however, is that you have something near term going on because of what is expected to happen to the headline CPI over the next couple of months.Then something a couple of years out, not next year but a year or two after that, is pulling down the compensation.Is that a fair characterization of the market data?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOS.', 'text': 'I would not be so bold as to go that far.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': 'Let me see if I can get Vince to be that bold.[Laughter]'}, {'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': 'Yes.There is something happening at the near end.[Laughter]'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': ""That's not very bold, Vince.""}]",no,,,,
435,438,20061025_68_6,MR. FISHER.,"""So some of the buttressing, President Minehan, is coming from significant amounts of liquidity in the system.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""President Fisher's comments reminded me of it. Whether you look at the KMV data on expected-default frequencies for the five major homebuilders or at the Dow Jones home construction index and the stock prices for the top five homebuilders, none of them seems to be indicating a major problem. Now, the expected-default frequency, which again is driven from stock prices, may certainly be above the rest of U.S. industry, but by no means is it even at any kind of historically medium position, let alone high position, and there has been a recent uptrend in the Dow Jones home construction index overall. So that's another bit of the data that I was using, and others may be using as well, to suggest that maybe things won't get as bad as the worst of our projections in terms of homebuilding. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Fisher. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'But the point I was reporting is that the utilization of those trucks in terms of carrying Christmas inventory appears to have slowed and is not running at the pace that it was in previous years.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'I agree.Thank you.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Minehan, did you have something?'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""Yes.I just wanted to add something that I forgot to mention earlier.President Fisher's comments reminded me of it.Whether you look at the KMV data on expected-default frequencies for the five major homebuilders or at the Dow Jones home construction index and the stock prices for the top five homebuilders, none of them seems to be indicating a major problem.Now, the expected-default frequency, which again is driven from stock prices, may certainly be above the rest of U.S. industry, but by no means is it even at any kind of historically medium position, let alone high position, and there has been a recent uptrend in the Dow Jones home construction index overall.So that's another bit of the data that I was using, and others may be using as well, to suggest that maybe things won't get as bad as the worst of our projections in terms of homebuilding.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Fisher.'}]",no,,,,
436,439,20061212_115_2,MR. MADIGAN.,"""In that comment I was referring specifically to our estimated policy rules, which are empirical renditions of the Committee's past behavior.""",,"[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': 'Brian, in your comments on exhibit 3 you said that alternative A, as your last bullet says, ""is consistent with estimated policy rules."" Can you just elaborate on that? My quick reading of it suggests that, as long as our inflation objective is 2 percent, the range of policy rules that we look at basically will show the funds rate at or under the market path. If you have a different inflation objective, then we\'re at the middle of the distribution or maybe slightly under the plausible distribution. Am I reading that right? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MADIGAN.', 'text': ""In that respect I actually don't see much distinction between 4 and 5.On the whole, my guess would be that it is not far from what the median market participant expects.Dino may have a comment on this.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOS.', 'text': ""I think that's right.I think the median view would be that they're looking for some acknowledgement of the soft data that were mentioned earlier.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Vice Chairman Geithner.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': 'I have two questions about the prisms you gave us for looking at the current stance of policy and the likely path of policy.Brian, in your comments on exhibit 3 you said that alternative A, as your last bullet says, ""is consistent with estimated policy rules.""Can you just elaborate on that?My quick reading of it suggests that, as long as our inflation objective is 2 percent, the range of policy rules that we look at basically will show the funds rate at or under the market path.If you have a different inflation objective, then we\'re at the middle of the distribution or maybe slightly under the plausible distribution.Am I reading that right?'}]",no,,,,
437,440,20070628_223_1,VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.,"""Those choices I think I understand, but I was really thinking about the pictures.""",,"[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': 'I assume you want people to comment on that question, too, and that goes to the core of this next stage of evolution in the transparency. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': ""That's a complicated governance issue because it relates to both what the Committee approves potentially and what the Board approves because the Monetary Policy Report is by law a report of the Board of Governors explaining the monetary policy actions of the Committee. The short answer is that it depends on what you want. One possibility--that's option one--is to write a narrative included in the minutes, have it approved by the Committee, and then essentially lift that out and make that a significant chunk of Part 1 of the semiannual Monetary Policy Report. Then the words would be the same in both places. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Thank you.Are there any questions?Vice Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': ""Vince, it's a little unclear from what you've circulated what the subcommittee is recommending or presuming about the pieces of material that would go into the Monetary Policy Report.Do you want to say just a little about options there?I assume you want people to comment on that question, too, and that goes to the core of this next stage of evolution in the transparency.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': ""That's a complicated governance issue because it relates to both what the Committee approves potentially and what the Board approves because the Monetary Policy Report is by law a report of the Board of Governors explaining the monetary policy actions of the Committee.The short answer is that it depends on what you want.One possibility--that's option one--is to write a narrative included in the minutes, have it approved by the Committee, and then essentially lift that out and make that a significant chunk of Part 1 of the semiannual Monetary Policy Report.Then the words would be the same in both places.""}]",no,,,,
438,441,20070918_40_2,VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.,"""I'm not sure that helps when we get into this context.""","But, Mr. Chairman, if I'm not mistaken, I think that the term market for interbank liquidity is largely offshore in Europe, not in fed funds onshore. I'm not sure that helps when we get into this context.","[{'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': 'Could something like that account for the volume in the funds market? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': ""Yes, obviously that moves in that direction, but if I remember correctly, the number on the volume of the fed funds market is in the $400 billion to $500 billion range. Twenty percent on that kind of level is quite a bit bigger than what you're seeing. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': 'Okay. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MADIGAN.', 'text': 'That would include brokered trades and nonbrokered trades. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': ""What we did, though, is look at the volume in the overnight federal funds market, and we saw that go up about 20 percent.So if you start with the premise that the banks that have excess funds to lend aren't going to change much month to month, you can pretty much infer that most of it is coming out of the term market.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': ""Both large banks in our District have gone from being net borrowers to being large net lenders.One, in fact, says it's the largest in the market and lends $10 billion to $15 billion every night overnight, and they used to borrow a couple of billion dollars every day.Could something like that account for the volume in the funds market?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': ""Yes, obviously that moves in that direction, but if I remember correctly, the number on the volume of the fed funds market is in the $400 billion to $500 billion range.Twenty percent on that kind of level is quite a bit bigger than what you're seeing.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': 'Okay.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MADIGAN.', 'text': 'That would include brokered trades and nonbrokered trades.'}]",yes,no,,,
439,442,20080130_157_1,CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.,"""If it is okay with everybody, we can start the economic go-round at this point.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': 'No, nothing different. Again, the way the stock market and other elements of spending operate is a little more complicated than just a consumer spending channel, but it really is wealth effect. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': ""I wonder if I could entice anybody for a cup of coffee. [Laughter] Why don't we take a fifteen-minute break, and then we'll commence with the go-round. Thank you. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': ""As Dave noted, there are a few other, small wrinkles, and we didn't just invent those extra wrinkles this time around.They have always been there.But most of this is working through the wealth effect on the consumer spending side.So it is a weaker stock market and much weaker consumption.That is the aggregate demand channel.The other piece is housing, which I don't want to minimize because, in fact, that is another nontrivial factor holding down demand and, we think, depressing our estimate of the equilibrium funds rate here over the intermediate term.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PLOSSER.', 'text': ""I didn't understand that this was just primarily the wealth effect or whether you were referring to something different.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': 'No, nothing different.Again, the way the stock market and other elements of spending operate is a little more complicated than just a consumer spending channel, but it really is wealth effect.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': ""I wonder if I could entice anybody for a cup of coffee.[Laughter] Why don't we take a fifteen-minute break, and then we'll commence with the go-round.Thank you.""}]",no,,,,
440,443,20080318_91_9,MR. MISHKIN.,"""""Financial disruption"" is still a good phrase to use in public, but I really do think that this is a financial crisis.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Well, I'm quite depressed. That's not my usual personality trait, but the reality is that we've had as bad a set of shocks as I could have imagined, and I want to talk about this set of shocks. We have been hit with things that are making our policy environment as complicated as I possibly could have imagined. The reality is that we are in the worst financial crisis that we've experienced in the post-World War II era. I don't think we should be shy about saying it. We are in a financial crisis, and it is worse than we have experienced in any other episode of financial ""disruption,"" which is the word I use. I will not use ""financial crisis"" in public. ""Financial disruption"" is still a good phrase to use in public, but I really do think that this is a financial crisis. It is surely going to be called that in the next edition of my textbook. PARTICIPANT. When is it coming out?","[{'speaker': 'MR. KROSZNER.', 'text': ""So there's a bit of a paradox here that, if there are some potential benefits of the slowdown to reduce these prices, that could actually also reduce export demand, which--as a number of people pointed out--is very important in the forecast for keeping this a shallow recession. So I remain concerned on both the growth front and the inflation front, but I do think that macro stability is probably the primary thing that we need to be thinking about right now. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Thank you. Governor Mishkin. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KROSZNER.', 'text': ""Also, over the last year or two, when we've had the unemployment rate below 5 percent or 43/4 percent, whatever your favorite number is, where there would be pressure on wages, we haven't seen much pressure on wages.So I'm not sure that, if the unemployment rate goes significantly above 5 percent, we'll see much on the other side that will take pressure off wages to bring things down.So I do remain concerned there.But I think there's a final risk that, if commodity, energy, and agriculture prices do significantly move down, it could have a major effect on some of the emerging markets and some of our other trading partners.So there's a bit of a paradox here that, if there are some potential benefits of the slowdown to reduce these prices, that could actually also reduce export demand, which--as a number of people pointed out--is very important in the forecast for keeping this a shallow recession.So I remain concerned on both the growth front and the inflation front, but I do think that macro stability is probably the primary thing that we need to be thinking about right now.Thank you, Mr. Chairman.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Thank you.Governor Mishkin.'}]",yes,no,,,
441,444,20080625_305_1,MR. KROSZNER.,"""Oh, and I apologize--I fully support going ahead with extending the facility past the year-end.""","Oh, and I apologize--I fully support going ahead with extending the facility past the year-end. I would make sure that it's a bit more than just immediately past year-end and go some time into February so there are no questions about year-end.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KROSZNER.', 'text': 'It really is sort of a cost-benefit analysis if someone chooses to apply. So we need to think about that carefully and about the costs and benefits of getting people in because the long-term dynamics will be that people always try to get away from regulation unless they see that there is some sufficient benefit. Being very mindful of that, both from the institution context and the broader context of the markets, is very important. Thank you. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Thank you. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KROSZNER.', 'text': ""Obviously, there is some regulatory competition--President Rosengren, I think, brought that up--so we need to think of that as a whole.This is part of the homework assignment that the Congress needs to think about--setting up a reasonable FDICIA-like regime for a broader set of institutions that would choose to come and be regulated by the Fed.We have been talking about where the bright lines are.But if we okay someone to be a financial holding company, then they become part of our regime in the existing structure.So the lines aren't completely carefully drawn.It really is sort of a cost-benefit analysis if someone chooses to apply.So we need to think about that carefully and about the costs and benefits of getting people in because the long-term dynamics will be that people always try to get away from regulation unless they see that there is some sufficient benefit.Being very mindful of that, both from the institution context and the broader context of the markets, is very important.Thank you.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Thank you.'}]",yes,no,,,
442,445,20080805_55_2,MR. KAMIN.,"""As I mentioned, core import price inflation shot up very rapidly to over 10 percent in the second quarter, and our approach toward modeling and predicting core import price inflation focuses on three main sources of increase.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. WILCOX.', 'text': 'Another factor taking down overall nonresidential spending is that the lower energy price trajectory reduces our expectation for drilling and mining expenditures, which have also fallen. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Lockhart. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. LOCKHART.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Chairman. A question for Steve. Could you review your thought process on core import prices and comment on how sensitive our inflation projections are to the assumption of, I believe, moderation in core import prices in 2009? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PLOSSER.', 'text': ""So in the way you've modeled this in your forecast, are you thinking of yourselves as modeling that net effect, or do you think of yourselves as modeling and forecasting just one side?Have you made any effort to incorporate both sides of this potential effect?Even though it may be small, the question is how small it is.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. REIFSCHNEIDER.', 'text': ""We've made no explicit adjustment for that in the potential output assumptions we have going in.Looking back, it was hard to see that there was much, if any, effect, but that's a risk knowing that there could be some productivity effect and it's just hard to find.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PLOSSER.', 'text': 'Thank you.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WILCOX.', 'text': 'May I just augment my earlier answer?I spoke about the nonresidential building sector.Another factor taking down overall nonresidential spending is that the lower energy price trajectory reduces our expectation for drilling and mining expenditures, which have also fallen.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Lockhart.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LOCKHART.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Chairman.A question for Steve.Could you review your thought process on core import prices and comment on how sensitive our inflation projections are to the assumption of, I believe, moderation in core import prices in 2009?'}]",no,,,,
443,446,20080805_162_5,MR. STERN.,"""But another virtue of it, even if you don't find it that credible, is that the cards are on the table.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MS. PIANALTO.', 'text': 'I think alternative B enables us to hold our present strategy of watchful waiting, but it does call somewhat greater attention to inflation risks than we expressed at the conclusion of our last meeting. So I find both the strategy and the language of alternative B to be quite appropriate for the circumstances we face today. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Thank you. President Stern. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. PIANALTO.', 'text': ""In particular, as we have been discussing, the core statistics are likely to worsen notably during the next several months, and I could just shrug those worse numbers off because I have a projection that calls for those numbers to improve by early next year.But I'm not confident that the public will shrug them off.As we have been talking about, the cost of longer-term inflation expectations drifting up is large.I believe that we can influence those expectations, and I think it is important that we do let the public know that we are serious about opening the doors to a rate increase if that becomes necessary.We need the flexibility to move nimbly, and I think the language that is contained in alternative B puts the markets on notice.I think alternative B enables us to hold our present strategy of watchful waiting, but it does call somewhat greater attention to inflation risks than we expressed at the conclusion of our last meeting.So I find both the strategy and the language of alternative B to be quite appropriate for the circumstances we face today.Thank you, Mr. Chairman.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Thank you.President Stern.'}]",no,,,,
444,447,20080805_185_7,CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.,"""As we go forward, we will obviously continue to have these fruitful discussions.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MS. DUKE.', 'text': 'I don\'t think that the ""severe financial stress"" scenario is out of the question right now. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Thank you. Vice Chairman. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support alternative B for the reasons that you and many others have already stated. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MISHKIN.', 'text': ""We won't have boards of directors that will be good.We won't have all of the benefits that we think we have from the current system.The other alternative is that we then have presidents who are actually appointed by the President and then confirmed by the Senate.I think, again, that hurts the private linkage.So I feel very strongly about all three of these issues, but I think that you're going to come up with serious challenges in the future that could be very damaging to the System.So I hope you think about this and still like me for being blunt, and also miss me because there will be a little less amusement.Who else would have brought Monty Python into the FOMC?Thank you very much.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Thank you, Governor Mishkin.Governor Duke.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. DUKE.', 'text': 'Thank you.I support alternative B.I don\'t think that the ""severe financial stress"" scenario is out of the question right now.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Thank you.Vice Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Chairman.I support alternative B for the reasons that you and many others have already stated.'}]",no,,,,
445,448,20081216_176_2,MR. STOCKTON.,"""On the commodity price side, things are fairly stable, and at least in our forecast, inflation expectations are probably drifting down some.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. EVANS.', 'text': 'But it is also the time that the inflation rate is low and continuing to fall. This is going to be a tension for us as we start thinking about, and we are about to engage in mentioning, the possibility that inflation could be--well, whatever--lower than ideal. What would you guess the risks might be around that inflation forecast? How hard is it going to be for us not to continue to worry about inflation being low or to communicate that inflation is going to continue to be low even though things are improving? Just any kind of advice would be helpful. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. EVANS.', 'text': ""I have a question or observation, which is of the optimistic variety although it presents sort of a challenge.In the medium-term outlook in exhibit 4, if you focus on 2010, the Greenbook projection has real GDP growing at 2.4 percent.We're beginning to come out of this.The unemployment rate is peaking.If you could implement the optimal control federal funds rate, it would be bottoming out.Maybe that would mean whatever quantitative easing credit programs we would be doing would be at their peak and maybe would be coming off.But it is also the time that the inflation rate is low and continuing to fall.This is going to be a tension for us as we start thinking about, and we are about to engage in mentioning, the possibility that inflation could be--well, whatever--lower than ideal.What would you guess the risks might be around that inflation forecast?How hard is it going to be for us not to continue to worry about inflation being low or to communicate that inflation is going to continue to be low even though things are improving?Just any kind of advice would be helpful.""}]",no,,,,
446,449,20081216_376_4,MR. MADIGAN.,"""Overall, the outlook for economic activity has weakened further.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Brian, would you like just to read that? Are you able to read it that? Do you have the information? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MADIGAN.', 'text': 'Yes. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Would you go ahead and read the thing? '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': ""So the only change in paragraph 5 that I'm proposing is in the first sentence.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KROSZNER.', 'text': 'So the last sentence will have ""continue to"" or not?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Okay.Let\'s see.Yes, I think it has to be there.""The Federal Reserve will continue to consider ways of using its balance sheet.""I think we have to say that because we have used it.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. DUKE.', 'text': 'Would that say ""the Committee""?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Sorry?'}, {'speaker': 'MS. DUKE.', 'text': 'Would that say the ""Committee will"" or ""the Federal Reserve will""?Perhaps ""the Committee will continue to consider ways to use the Federal Reserve balance sheet.""'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': '""The Committee will continue to consider ways of using the Federal Reserve\'s balance sheet.""I think we should leave it where it is.Just leave it ambiguous for now, if that\'s okay.So those are the changes.Brian, would you like just to read that?Are you able to read it that?Do you have the information?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MADIGAN.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Would you go ahead and read the thing?'}]",no,,,,
447,450,19770315_189_3,CHAIRMAN BURNS.,"""If not, this is as good a time as any to break for coffee.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'And our staff has to [write it] on the basis of what is said at this table, and not enough has been said about the general economic outlook. And to aid our staff on that very critical point, I asked for a show of hands. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I did not raise my hand on that because I think the pattern is going to be different. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""Well, you've made that comment before, and I supported you, but I was thinking really of the-- ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'Thinking of the-- '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Any other comment on the overall economic situation and prospects?I think it would be helpful to have a show of hands on the part of members of the Committee on your judgments about the economic prospect.If you feel that our staff projection is more or less in the ballpark, as far as the real economy is concerned, will the members of the Committee be good enough to raise their hands?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BROIDA.', 'text': 'Eleven.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Thank you very much.I asked for that show of hands for a very definite reason.We now have a monthly detailed report of Committee deliberations, which is made public.And our staff has to [write it] on the basis of what is said at this table, and not enough has been said about the general economic outlook.And to aid our staff on that very critical point, I asked for a show of hands.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I did not raise my hand on that because I think the pattern is going to be different.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""Well, you've made that comment before, and I supported you, but I was thinking really of the--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'Thinking of the--'}]",no,,,,
448,451,19770315_301_3,MR. MAYO.,"""We have in Chicago a development, which is still in its infancy, to encourage the development of a bankers' acceptances market in Chicago which would be, in some phases at least, independent of the market in New York; maybe independent isn't the right word, but it would be able to stand on its own feet.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KIMBREL.', 'text': 'Just a question, Mr. Chairman. Timing really must have come into the discussion--with these exceptional cases or delicate banking structure--that you resolved to your own satisfaction. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. GARDNER.', 'text': ""I think we did, Monroe, basically by the majority view that we no longer would purchase directly because, when we use the repurchase agreement, we have an additional point in strength. And therefore, the issue to which I think you're alluding would probably be of minimal importance. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Mr. Mayo, please, and then Mr. Coldwell. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GARDNER.', 'text': ""It was the general feeling of the [sub]committee that we should follow in good conscience the normal workings of the prime mechanism in the market place, not deal in what the market classifies as nonprime, and very rarely, if ever, use our special knowledge of an individual bank's condition to question the use of its acceptance or the purchase or repurchase agreement for its acceptance.And that's a general statement of the issues, Mr. Chairman, and the [sub]committee's recommendation to the FOMC.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""Well, thank you very much for your report and for the work that you've done in connection with it.Does the Committee want to discuss?There are several recommendations, Mr. Kimbrel you have a--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KIMBREL.', 'text': 'Just a question, Mr. Chairman.Timing really must have come into the discussion--with these exceptional cases or delicate banking structure--that you resolved to your own satisfaction.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GARDNER.', 'text': ""I think we did, Monroe, basically by the majority view that we no longer would purchase directly because, when we use the repurchase agreement, we have an additional point in strength.And therefore, the issue to which I think you're alluding would probably be of minimal importance.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Mr. Mayo, please, and then Mr. Coldwell.'}]",no,,,,
449,452,19770419_157_3,MR. PARTEE.,"""If the GNP pattern, as well as the projection, is right, [unintelligible] so much investment, so much consumption, why of course, the whole thing isn't generally consistent and it tends to break up.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""And if there is, why, the nominal GNP rise could be larger than the staff is projecting, in which case this pressure in the flow of funds would be greater than it's being shown to be here. So I think that the probabilities are on the side of more straining in the markets than is here projected. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""When you say the flow of funds estimates are consistent with the GNP estimates, you certainly cannot mean that, assuming the GNP projections, there's one and only one set of flow of funds estimates that is consistent with that, and that we have it on this table. But you didn't mean that. If you do, that's a strange kind of-- ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Well now, the flow of funds numbers are consistent, of course, with the GNP projection, and that's the thing you have to ask yourself, whether the GNP projection is likely to be about right or too low or too high.I can't find a great deal to argue with in the GNP projection, except that it seems to me that there might be exposure to a somewhat higher rate of price increase than is in it.And if there is, why, the nominal GNP rise could be larger than the staff is projecting, in which case this pressure in the flow of funds would be greater than it's being shown to be here.So I think that the probabilities are on the side of more straining in the markets than is here projected.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""When you say the flow of funds estimates are consistent with the GNP estimates, you certainly cannot mean that, assuming the GNP projections, there's one and only one set of flow of funds estimates that is consistent with that, and that we have it on this table.But you didn't mean that.If you do, that's a strange kind of--""}]",no,,,,
450,453,19770719_500_2,MR. STERNLIGHT.,"""So, from that standpoint, if there were any significant rule [unintelligible], the midpoint would probably be [unintelligible] making its presence in the market early.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Yes, Mr. Kimbrel? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KIMBREL.', 'text': 'In our [Treasury] financing, if we are going to move, would we need to do this very quickly? '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'This is the question-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KIMBREL.', 'text': 'Treasury financing. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""I don't know what the financing schedule is, precisely. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JACKSON.', 'text': 'Which means 5-1/2--not instantaneously, but with deliberate speed in that direction.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Who would like to speak next?Mr. Gardner.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GARDNER.', 'text': ""I have no difficulty with the ranges of M1 and M2, but if you will forgive me for appending an additional comment on your comment this morning, I don't want a 6 percent federal funds rate without further deliberation.So I would support the narrower range in the federal funds rate because I think this would be a most significant point in all of our processes.And I see no reason to move that midpoint up, adopt a higher limit.Particularly in this--and I suppose this is always true--sensitive time.So I would support the 5-1/4--the alternative B federal funds rate range--very vigorously.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Gardner.Yes, Mr. Kimbrel?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KIMBREL.', 'text': 'In our [Treasury] financing, if we are going to move, would we need to do this very quickly?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'This is the question--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KIMBREL.', 'text': 'Treasury financing.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""I don't know what the financing schedule is, precisely.""}]",no,,,,
451,454,19770920_82_13,CHAIRMAN BURNS.,"""And you know, one of the reasons for a dialogue such as we have is that we see the world differently.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""I'm more concerned about what has initiated the problem--mainly the man-hour side. And as I say, we discounted that. We did receive late yesterday a preliminary projection by the Commerce Department of the increase in GNP for the third quarter--the first number they come up with, and it's never published, is subject to substantial revision, but they have 5 percent real growth estimated--which seems to us clearly on the high side--and even larger implicit productivity gains. So they have discounted even more than we have the man-hour numbers. I suspect, though, that what our forecast hinges on importantly will be September performance, man-hours and production, and perhaps some revision of these man-hour numbers so that they are not so deeply negative. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""If you discount those man-hour figures somewhat, as we have, the only way you can get something like a 4-1/2 percent rate of real growth is if you get large gains in productivity, and also better profit performance, than you would otherwise.But productivity numbers have been jumping around a good deal, and they're difficult to make sense of, so I am not surprised by having a fairly large increase, as we do this quarter.I'm more concerned about what has initiated the problem--mainly the man-hour side.And as I say, we discounted that.We did receive late yesterday a preliminary projection by the Commerce Department of the increase in GNP for the third quarter--the first number they come up with, and it's never published, is subject to substantial revision, but they have 5 percent real growth estimated--which seems to us clearly on the high side--and even larger implicit productivity gains.So they have discounted even more than we have the man-hour numbers.I suspect, though, that what our forecast hinges on importantly will be September performance, man-hours and production, and perhaps some revision of these man-hour numbers so that they are not so deeply negative.""}]",no,,,,
452,455,19780228_2_1,MR. WALLICH.,"""I move [that the minutes be] approved.""",I move [that the minutes be] approved.,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'That was the second mistake. I think that, under the circumstances, these mistakes are understandable; I hope they are. Nevertheless, they were errors as things have turned out; they were hurried suggestions. From now on, no matter what happens, we will proceed according to our regular rules--not deviating to the left nor deviating to the right one inch. A motion to act on the minutes would now be in order. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'He is testifying this morning and he has had his difficulties, but I am reasonably confident that they may be cleared up this morning.We all have our duty and we will perform it.It has been a somewhat difficult period for all of us and some mistakes have been made, and I=m responsible for two mistakes.Well, I don=t know how many I=m responsible for, but I=m responsible at least for two that I can think of immediately involving this Committee.The first was to advise you not to take up the long-range targets at the January meeting.That was a mistake.The second was postponing our regular meeting a week.That was the second mistake.I think that, under the circumstances, these mistakes are understandable; I hope they are.Nevertheless, they were errors as things have turned out; they were hurried suggestions.From now on, no matter what happens, we will proceed according to our regular rules--not deviating to the left nor deviating to the right one inch.A motion to act on the minutes would now be in order.'}]",yes,no,,,
453,456,19780228_124_4,MR. PARDEE.,"""It=s that kind of credibility that we need; then we don=t have to operate on a big scale.""","This is not so much on a quarter percent or a half percent. Yesterday I let the dollar drop a whole percent before we made a gesture to the market, which was sufficient at that stage. People saw us, [said] ""Okay, fine"" and then they went back about their business and the dollar rebounded. It=s that kind of credibility that we need; then we don=t have to operate on a big scale. As soon as the market recognizes that the Federal Reserve is [in the market they say], ""Fine, we can buy dollars now."" But it is when the market turns to us and says, ""Where are you fellows?"" that we then have to do the big amounts. That=s the scale of disorder that we=ve had.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARDEE.', 'text': 'One of the important shifts for us on this active approach was the ability to stay in there when we did go in and take these fellows out of the market. Sure, on the days that we are operating we will operate on a bigger scale, but we=ve also been out of the market. There was a period of nearly four weeks in which we were completely out of the market except for some modest operations. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'But when do you go into the market? That=s the question. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARDEE.', 'text': 'In the early operations back in October, November, and December, we were prepared to allow a quarter of a percent or a half percent drop in the dollar rate before we went into the market.And at that moment we would offer 20 million marks perhaps, and then back away.We backed away repeatedly as one or two or three banks each saw us there and said, ""Aha!They are not willing to do 50 million marks"" and they blew us out of the market repeatedly.We came in and we reported to you big operations, big increases in swap debt--$600 million in December, I think it was--and we were not being effective in the job we were trying to do.One of the important shifts for us on this active approach was the ability to stay in there when we did go in and take these fellows out of the market.Sure, on the days that we are operating we will operate on a bigger scale, but we=ve also been out of the market.There was a period of nearly four weeks in which we were completely out of the market except for some modest operations.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'But when do you go into the market?That=s the question.'}]",yes,no,,,
454,457,19780321_127_4,VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""[the repayment period] a little and in return, I hope, we'd get the Bundesbank's agreement for direct purchases as necessary in paying this debt off.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': ""That's not much time but I would hope to be able to do so, and I certainly would appreciate any guidance members of the Committee would like to provide at this time. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Gentlemen, you've heard the invitation. Any guidance? Paul. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': ""The other alternative would be for us to share equally any profit or loss that might exist at the time of the funding and then the System would have to agree to take the profit and loss itself from then on.I would assume that this Committee would prefer a continuation of the 50-50 arrangement.We also discussed various options in regard to repayment schedules, should an extended swap be agreed on, and I believe the Germans are prepared to be very flexible in this respect.The Bundesbank representatives agreed to consider all of these [items on our] check list, and we're quite anxious to continue exploration at, before, during, or after the next Basle meeting.I think they really would like to see us reach a conclusion as early as possible.Pending those further discussions, I think it's premature to make recommendations to the Committee.I hope, however, to be able to present a written report to the Committee prior to the April meeting.That's not much timebut I would hope to be able to do so, and I certainly would appreciate any guidance members of the Committee would like to provide at this time.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Gentlemen, you've heard the invitation.Any guidance?Paul.""}]",yes,no,,,
455,458,19780321_501_1,MR. JACKSON.,"""Mr. Chairman, I feel very strongly about wanting the Treasury to share the burdens of operations on our part abroad.""","Mr. Chairman, I feel very strongly about wanting the Treasury to share the burdens of operations on our part abroad. And I have been outspoken in that view. However, I don't see this proposal as being destructive of that objective. On the contrary, it strikes me that in the event the Treasury were to make a loan itself to some other country this proposal--by being able to replenish their funds with a warehousing arrangement with us--would enable them perhaps to stay in as our partners in support of our position instead of having to refuse to [join] because [the Exchange Stabilization Fund] doesn't have any money. For that reason I would support this. I don't think this is contrary to the attitude of keeping their feet to the fire over on the other side.","[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'Twelve months ago, there was this exchange of letters, but it was not intended to be anything more than a confirmation of what had been practiced now for 15 years. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I would think the typical contingency--there could be all sorts of [cases] where you might want to use this--is where we wanted the Treasury to join with us in some lending. And they say we can't do it because we haven't got the money. And we would want the facility to say we can provide the money; you take the risk, we'll provide the money. It would make possible an action we want them to take rather than that they're foisting off something on us that we didn't like. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'It was reinstituted the same time we were discussing this German balance agreement.There has been a warehousing provision in the foreign currency authorization since 1963.When we cleaned up the authorization, although the power to warehouse remains in the authorization, the explicit numbers associated with the warehousing were removed.And therefore, at that time, in light of the sterling balances, an agreement was negotiated.Twelve months ago, there was this exchange of letters, but it was not intended to be anything more than a confirmation of what had been practiced now for 15 years.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I would think the typical contingency--there could be all sorts of [cases] where you might want to use this--is where we wanted the Treasury to join with us in some lending.And they say we can't do it because we haven't got the money.And we would want the facility to say we can provide the money; you take the risk, we'll provide the money.It would make possible an action we want them to take rather than that they're foisting off something on us that we didn't like.""}]",yes,no,,,
456,459,19780418_30_5,CHAIRMAN MILLER.,"""And we wouldn't have to have Henry negotiate how we pay [the swap debt] off.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': ""The way I interpreted it, we are dealing with a market that has been going down, and disorder there I think has a different weighting in our purchases and sales as against a market that is going in the other direction. Once a real trend is discernable in a reversal of [the dollar's] basic movement, then I would expect the Desk to operate in the opposite way. Now, maybe they won't, but that would be at least an expectation. I think they have a duty here to perceive, as best as any of us can, the underlying trend of the market and in effect roll with that--not try to offset it. And if the underlying trend is in our favor then we can make hay, so to speak. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'About $90 million of which half is ours, right?So you have potential losses now, Bones, of around $50 million for the Fed.Bob Mayo, you had a--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': ""Yes, I just wanted to make [a comment that is] another way of saying Paul's point.The way I interpreted it, we are dealing with a market that has been going down, and disorder there I think has a different weighting in our purchases and sales as against a market that is going in the other direction.Once a real trend is discernable in a reversal of [the dollar's] basic movement, then I would expect the Desk to operate in the opposite way.Now, maybe they won't, but that would be at least an expectation.I think they have a duty here to perceive, as best as any of us can, the underlying trend of the market and in effect roll with that--not try to offset it.And if the underlying trend is in our favor then we can make hay, so to speak.""}]",no,,,,
457,460,19780620_391_1,CHAIRMAN MILLER.,"""Gentlemen, we are going to have John Denkler here in a moment, but you have seen the memo and we have a serious problem.""",,"[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think they should have the authority, but that doesn=t mean that they should go ahead just to make a demonstration [in] the market. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Exactly. The next item of business is to confirm the [date of the] next meeting, which is Tuesday, July 18. And the next item of business is an executive session for five minutes. [Executive Session] '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'The timing is to be selected with great care and judgment and prudently.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'About 1980I=d buy it.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Apparently there was a majority of the Committee unless I misread it.Who=d be willing to give Steve and Peter that [authority] now?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BAUGHMAN.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, while I=m willing to give that, it seems to me that Phil Coldwell=s suggestion of just letting them run off is a preferable one.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Well, they are able to do that now.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': 'Let them sell agricultural ones and support the housing ones, not on the record.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Would you like to vote again?I got a pretty strong sentiment that we would authorize you to go ahead, recognizing the cautions and constraints.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think they should have the authority, but that doesn=t mean that they should go ahead just to make a demonstration [in] the market.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Exactly.The next item of business is to confirm the [date of the] next meeting, which is Tuesday, July 18.And the next item of business is an executive session for five minutes.[Executive Session]'}]",no,,,,
458,461,19780919_46_11,MR. WALLICH.,"""I think we have to head this""","I think, Paul, this is reasonable. There's a relationship of the interest rate and the expected change in the exchange rate, which in equilibrium offset each other. That is, the German interest rate is 3 percentage points lower than ours, there's an expectation in the market that the D-mark will appreciate by 3 percent over a year, and so if we pay the German rate, we can afford to take the full loss. We take 50-50 on any loss of the exchange rate; we ought to have a 50-50 rate on the interest rate also. That's what I've been criticizing at times--that we were paying the U.S. high interest rate and yet we're getting the 50-50. The full risk should have been on the Bundesbank if we paid the full U.S. interest rate. So I think backing away from the 50-50 is perfectly feasible. It gives me a little pause to hear that foreign central banks are unhappy with it. If they're unhappy with it, it makes you suspect that maybe there's something good in it for us. The concern of the Treasury I think is genuine; it has to do with making a change in the terms of their swap at a time when the dollar is weak and they are subject to criticism. I think we have to head this [way], but next year when the dollar is strong we could have another go at this. May I say one more thing, Mr. Chairman, at the risk of running [too long on] this. The EC government wants to homogenize all our swaps. That means bringing up things like the 50-50 and other minor differences, although we homogenized them pretty much last year. Lester said he would try to talk them out of it and seemed confident that changes proposed by the EC government may therefore not come up. Thank you.","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""But if that reason has relaxed in any way, I would support the notion of making the agreement conform to the logic of the situation. In principle I think we intervene when we think there's an expectation of a profit anyway and it should work out for our financial advantage over a period of time. I recognize that if it's too difficult politically, that has to remain the persuasive element for the moment, but over time I would like to see this made more symmetrical. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Henry, do you have any comments? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': ""I would hope that the Committee will be able to discuss the Gleske proposals at its next meeting after it has had time to study the forthcoming memorandum, which will be in your hands within a few days.That's all I have, Mr. Chairman.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you.Paul, you have a particular comment on--'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, I happen to agree with the logic of what Alan said on the 50-50 business.I think it's always been something of an anomaly.I have the feeling that it was a lot easier to sell, particularly to the U.S. Congress, that way and that's a pretty persuasive reason.But if that reason has relaxed in any way, I would support the notion of making the agreement conform to the logic of the situation.In principle I think we intervene when we think there's an expectation of a profit anywayand it should work out for our financial advantage over a period of time.I recognize that if it's too difficult politically, that has to remain the persuasive element for the moment, but over time I would like to see this made more symmetrical.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Henry, do you have any comments?'}]",yes,no,,,
459,462,19781017_201_1,MR. ROOS.,"""But even the most ardent monetarists, Mr. Chairman, have spoken up consistently for a very gradual reduction.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""So by trying to maintain housing, we have worked against ourselves--in my view properly--because we now have a balanced economy in which nothing is dragging us down into a recession unless we find the place to crack it. The miracle is to have the Wallich soft landing. And I would merely say to you that to find that soft landing, I don't know how much more we have to do. But I know that since we have seven years to do it, we'd do better to gently come at the problem rather than whack it too hard on the head and be sorry. Because once you trigger the point where the public gets scared and stops buying, you can't reverse it; [economic activity] will go [down]. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""The decision to authorize the money market certificate was a decision that cost us in these theories because we have maintained funds in the money supply that would have flowed out of the money supply and made us look better--if you want to measure by aggregate growth--if we had not done that.So by trying to maintain housing, we have worked against ourselves--in my view properly--because we now have a balanced economy in which nothing is dragging us down into a recession unless we find the place to crack it.The miracle is to have the Wallich soft landing.And I would merely say to you that to find that soft landing, I don't know how much more we have to do.But I know that since we have seven years to do it, we'd do better to gently come at the problem rather than whack it too hard on the head and be sorry.Because once you trigger the point where the public gets scared and stops buying, you can't reverse it; [economic activity] will go [down].""}]",no,,,,
460,463,19781121_64_4,MR. PARTEE.,"""And when you use it, you won't expand the money supply.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': 'It could be, yes. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'The present authority would be up to $1-1/2 billion. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'It would be counterproductive to pay off the Germans. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': 'It probably would be. It just gets very complicated when you try to look at it-- '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Chuck, did you have a question?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'What do we do with the currencies, Alan?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': 'Well, we invest them in whatever we can.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'In Germany?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'In the currency of whatever country it happens to be.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': 'Whatever currency it happens to be.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'And would we pay a rate of return to the Treasury on the warehousing?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': 'No, we would get the interest.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'And they take the exchange risk, Chuck.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': ""It's a way of financing for the Treasury, really.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""It's just so we can hold [the foreign currencies] and they have dollars, that's all.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Well, I was just wondering, would we put it into some kind of short-term investment?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': 'We have investing arrangements now in all three of the currencies that would be involved.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Because that might [amount] to quite a bit.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': 'It could be, yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'The present authority would be up to $1-1/2 billion.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'It would be counterproductive to pay off the Germans.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': 'It probably would be.It just gets very complicated when you try to look at it--'}]",no,,,,
461,464,19781219_372_13,MR. PARTEE.,"""But we think what is consistent with the way people report and analyze and use our data and the GNP data is to make it fourth quarter-to-fourth quarter.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'These ranges or guides. Sure, why not? And the next [sentence] says ""ranges."" Okay. Do you want to move to proposal 2, Chuck? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': ""If there's a big overshoot, you have to show it.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'One final question on the first point, Chuck.You have used the word ""targets.""Is this advisedly [or] required in the law?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'The word ""targets""?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'Yes, rather than ""guidelines"" or ""ranges.""'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': '""Ranges"" is the word in the law.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'The word ""targets"" is used in your next to last line on the first page.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'The first [sentence] is right, though.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""I was just hoping we'd stay away from that word.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Well, it says the objectives and plans with respect to the ranges of growth.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'In the past, we\'ve tried to stay away from the word target, if possible.[I\'d start that sentence with]""These ranges or guides should..."" It\'s semantics, I know.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'These ranges or guides.Sure, why not?And the next [sentence] says ""ranges.""Okay.Do you want to move to proposal 2, Chuck?'}]",no,,,,
462,465,19790206_395_1,MR. MAYO.,"""Surprisingly, I agree with Mark for a change.""","Surprisingly, I agree with Mark for a change. I think it would be a mistake, Mr. Chairman, to cut [the upper limit of the funds range1 from 10-1/2 to 10-1/4 percent. When it is published, it would give a wrong signal.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Mark '}, {'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""I think I'd like an unbiased-- ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'An unbiased money market directive? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""--but I'd like to retract what I said earlier; I think we have to have some aggregates in it. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Bob Mayo. '}]","[{'speaker': 'M R . PARTEE.', 'text': ""I would accept some language about taking account of foreign exchange market developments but that's as much of a bias as I would want.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Nancy.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""I would take a money market directive with a funds rate range of 9-3/4 to 10-1/4 percent and consultation if the aggregates really get out of hand either way.I'd also have an eye on the foreign exchange market but [act] only upon consultation.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""And, Paul, you've expressed the view that you would prefer the asymmetric directive.Henry.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Right.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""I'd like something that, if the aggregates strengthen, would quickly raise the rate into the 10 to 10-3/4 percent range and wouldn't trigger [action] on the down side.So my preference, if it has to be done in an asymmetrical form, would be a money market directive on the down side--and I'd want a very low limit--and aggregates on the up side.That would suit me.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Mark'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""I think I'd like an unbiased--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'An unbiased money market directive?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""--but I'd like to retract what I said earlier; I think we have to have some aggregates in it.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Bob Mayo.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,entailment,utterance
463,466,19790320_139_13,MR. BLACK.,"""The money market funds have been coming mostly out of M2, I think, rather than M1.""","Mr. Chairman, I guess it's most accurate to say that I want a foot in each bed. I'm worried about both inflation and recession. I'm worried about what a recession might do in speeding up inflation later by causing us to throw in all our chips. So I think we have to be sensitive to both concerns in reaching a policy decision and I believe we ought to let the behavior of the aggregates guide what we do in the weeks just ahead. We [at the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank] tend to do that more than perhaps most people around the table. I believe we could do this pretty well with alternative B coupled with an aggregates directive. As I read this, that would give us a midpoint [on M11 of 6-1/2 percent and would trigger some action to lower the federal funds rate if the aggregate came in at 5-1/2 percent or lower. Growth at that rate would mean--if we look at this on a 3-month moving average basis, which is the way we like to do it--no further deviation of M1 from the path that we've set from the fourth quarter of last year to the fourth quarter of this year; it would continue to be about as much below the path as it has been. For a change, I'm less concerned on the up side and wouldn't be bothered if we hit a 9 or 9-l/2 percent rate of growth in M1. I suppose what I said is tantamount to saying I want an aggregates directive on the bottom and a money market directive on the top. The M2 range in alternative B would suit me fine, but I have even less faith in that than in M1 because I think the tightening of money has depressed M2 more. The money market funds have been coming mostly out of M2, I think, rather than M1. So far as the federal funds range is concerned, I would prefer to see that stay at 9-3/4 to 10-1/2 percent.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""That would make a full six months and that begins to worry me. We really have a dilemma in the sense that the announcement effects could be counterproductive both with respect to the value of the dollar and the public's perception of what we're up to. But realizing that there are lags in the impact of policy, as I continue to stress, and given my expectation of a recession by the middle of the year, I think it's now time to begin to unwind this posture we've been in since November. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you, John. Bob Black. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""And on the funds rate, I would like to see a range of 9-1/4 to 10-1/4 percent with an immediate move to 9-3/4 percent.One reason in particular for tilting toward a lower funds rate at this time is the point I referred to in my earlier remarks about the consistent over-forecasting by several percentage points on both M1 and M2 that has been going on for five months now.If that over-forecast continued in March, which is my full expectation, we're going to see some more very low numbers in the growth of the monetary aggregates in the month of March.That would make a full six months and that begins to worry me.We really have a dilemma in the sense that the announcement effects could be counterproductive both with respect to the value of the dollar and the public's perception of what we're up to.But realizing that there are lags in the impact of policy, as I continue to stress, and given my expectation of a recession by the middle of the year, I think it's now time to begin to unwind this posture we've been in since November.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you, John.Bob Black.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,utterance
464,467,19790320_159_3,MR. EASTBURN.,"""And if the aggregates started to break through that bottom, I would have a telephone conference call.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""AS far as the nature of the directive is concerned, I'd like to have a money market directive with the range of 10 to 10-1/2 percent and, as I said, move to the midpoint of 10-1/4 percent with reasonable promptness. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Henry. Ernie. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BAUGHMAN.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, alternative B as presented in the Bluebook is an acceptable prescription for me. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Ernie. Dave. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""And somewhere in the directive I would make reference to the view that the aggregates are being interfered with by technological developments due to ATS and other factors, which I think should also be reflected in our one-year targets.There's no sense running after those if we have good reason to believe that something has happened to the demand for money that makes a given amount of money go further than we thought it would.On the funds rate, I would like to push it up just a little to 10-1/4 percent and go to a range of 10 to 10-1/2 percent.But I do think the inflationary environment calls for some other kind of action, so I would say that the Board should move on reserve requirements or the discount rate or some combination of these in a moderate way.AS far as the nature of the directive is concerned, I'd like to have a money market directive with the range of 10 to 10-1/2 percent and, as I said, move to the midpoint of 10-1/4 percent with reasonable promptness.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Henry. Ernie.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BAUGHMAN.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, alternative B as presented in the Bluebook is an acceptable prescription for me.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Ernie.Dave.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,utterance
465,468,19791006_36_6,MR. COLDWELL.,"""[of technique]: and (C) I think they are so skeptical that they'd just say it's too little and, without some effort on the part of the Treasury or somebody else, there would be no direct impact on the gold price.""","Paul, it seems to me that the situation we are faced with is pretty much as you outlined here. Maybe I could streamline this for my own thinking. I see our objectives as perhaps four-fold--centered around dampening [inflation] expectations, achieving some credit restraint that might flow from that, hopefully strengthening the dollar exchange rate, and--depending upon how one views this--a somewhat self-serving target of meeting our longer-range objectives and bringing growth in the monetary aggregates down. If those are our objectives and I lay heavy stress on the dampening of expectations, then it seems to me that the program has to be strong enough to impress the market. I have my doubts that the foreign market is going to be impressed for three reasons: (A) I don't think they are going to believe it: (B) I don't think they'll understand it in terms of our change [of technique]: and (C) I think they are so skeptical that they'd just say it's too little and, without some effort on the part of the Treasury or somebody else, there would be no direct impact on the gold price. So it seems to me that we are designing something here to a considerable extent [for] our [domestic] situation, hoping there is a fallout internationally. The risks are large, of course, and [primarily] on the side that whatever recessionary tendencies are already there might be compounded, creating a [greater] decline. I suspect that risk involves 1980, not 1979. I think the risks are equally strong on the other side in that if we don't put out something fully credible, we face a potential blow-up [vial a speculative move in the metals commodities that spreads out from there--in effect a flight from dollars. So I'm prepared to move ahead on this because I think the latter risks are too high.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Controls in the international dimension have not been discussed at all. I personally cannot conceive of controls in the international area. Forgetting about philosophy or long-term effects or anything else, I can't imagine--1 speak for myself--how one would design them so they'd be effective. They would have so many leaks around them because the major types of flows that involve foreign held dollars [have] leads and lags or what could be disguised as leads or lags. Such controls just don't have any prospect of effectiveness that would make them within the range of possibilities. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""For instance, grave questions might be raised about whether financing was available for some of the inventory that one would like to see financed.And all the anticipatory effects, with people trying to protect themselves, would [put the economy on] a very dangerous course at this particular juncture in the business cycle.The feeling is that there is some danger, on which people will put different [probabilities], of the economy having a most severe inventory reaction and indeed [that controls might1 even inhibit planning for capital spending that we wouldn't want to inhibit.Controls in the international dimension have not been discussed at all.I personally cannot conceive of controls in the international area.Forgetting about philosophy or long-term effects or anything else, I can't imagine--1 speak for myself--how one would design them so they'd be effective.They would have so many leaks around them because the major types of flows that involve foreign held dollars [have] leads and lags or what could be disguised as leads or lags.Such controls just don't have any prospect of effectiveness that would make them within the range of possibilities.""}]",yes,yes,utterance,,
466,469,19791006_304_14,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""That sounds like a good idea.""","A 1 percentage point increase. Under those circumstances, let me modify my proposal slightly. We work with a 4 . 6 or 4.5 percent target for M1, recognizing that people would rather see M1 growth come in somewhat lower, certainly, than higher. But that to us is a satisfactory target. In an uncertain world, all other things equal, the money market nice and equitable, expectations changing nicely, things settling down, it's possible we would feel better if it came in below than if we were embarrassed by it being too high. We have a discount rate of 12 percent. We have the reserve requirement change, which I think will be 8 percent, on a basket of managed liabilities. That is about equivalent to an added cost of 1 percent on those [liabilities]. That's the effect that has, mechanically. I don't know what that does to the prime rate, but [the added cost to banks] is just marginal. If the banks want to be mean--I've got to speak to the MA--they raise the prime rate and say that's our marginal cost of funds. If they want to be reasonable, they don't because that cost is only going to apply to a very small amount at the margin. I would be inclined to tell them at the ABA that they shouldn't reach forever on the interest rate. That sounds like a good idea. In and of itself, I think [all] that means some increase in the federal funds rate. How much of an increase? Although this scenario only puts the discount rate at about or slightly above the current federal funds rate, it nonetheless, all other things equal, puts some upward pressure on the federal funds rate. In terms of the range, Phil suggested 11-1/2 to 14-1/2 percent. As I told you, it makes me nervous to think of [the rate] going up and getting locked in at a higher level. But if you want to put the upper end higher, I reserve the right to consult if the funds rate were to begin getting up that high. We could have that understanding. I am not talking about for a day; I think it would be fine if it went there for a day or a bit beyond.","[{'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': '[Lunch recess] '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Let's try to reach some consensus on what the proposal should be like if we do it [under the old method]. And if we have a consensus on both of those, we could just vote up or down on which approach we like better, with as many people feeling comfortable about [our decision] as humanly possible. I think you can assume there will be a discount rate of 12 percent I should say. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': '12 percent? '}]","[{'speaker': 'M R . COLDWELL.', 'text': 'I think we ought to have some sensitivity to a 16 percent federal funds rate.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Understand that even with this kind of constraint, on an individual day it might well be [outside the range].SEVERAL.Oh, sure'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'We are talking about a weekly average.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Let me ask a question.Are we very closely in the ball park here?SEVERAL.Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Why not stop for lunch?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'I second that!'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't mean wander away for lunch.Let's take 10 minutes and come back to the table.""}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Where is lunch?'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Next door.[Lunch recess]'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Let's try to reach some consensus on what the proposal should be like if we do it [under the old method].And if we have a consensus on both of those, we could just vote up or down on which approach we like better, with as many people feeling comfortable about [our decision] as humanly possible.I think you can assume there will be a discount rate of 12 percent I should say.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': '12 percent?'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
467,470,19791120_135_6,M R . WINN.,"""[I wonder] how much shock effect we'll be getting in behavior for the moment and to what extent that may [erode] because availability is really not affected though price certainly has been in the real sense of the term.""",,"[{'speaker': 'M R . WILLES.', 'text': ""That means that if the price of imported oil is going up relatively fast, that can have a strong impact on the CPI but it's not at all clear that it will have a direct impact on the deflator. ""}, {'speaker': 'M R . KICHLINE.', 'text': ""I was referring to the personal consumption expenditure deflator. It gets measured there directly and subtracted out when we look at the difference in export and import prices. So the deflator will always understate the effect--the price impact--on consumers of rapid increases in foreign prices. When we look at the personal consumption area or the CPI, as you mentioned, we're going to get the full effect. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""The 3/4 point effect, for example, this year did not carry through fully to our price forecast.It's roughly 1/2 percent.So we have weaker activity as a result of higher world oil prices and in fact we assume that's going to have an impact in other areas in the domestic economy.""}, {'speaker': 'M R . WILLES.', 'text': ""Now I'm confused--not that I wasn't before.I thought that when you calculated the U.S. deflator the price of imported goods [always] came in with a negative sign.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'It does.'}, {'speaker': 'M R . WILLES.', 'text': ""That means that if the price of imported oil is going up relatively fast, that can have a strong impact on the CPI but it's not at all clear that it will have a direct impact on the deflator.""}, {'speaker': 'M R . KICHLINE.', 'text': ""I was referring to the personal consumption expenditure deflator.It gets measured there directly and subtracted out when we look at the difference in export and import prices.So the deflator will always understate the effect--the price impact--on consumers of rapid increases in foreign prices.When we look at the personal consumption area or the CPI, as you mentioned, we're going to get the full effect.""}]",no,,,,
468,471,19791120_298_3,MR. KIMBREL.,"""But I happen to have a slightly different view.""","Mr. Chairman, we too have considerable appreciation for the staff projections but I guess we would assign a higher priority for some [possibility] of a tax cut next year than the Greenbook seems to suggest. Also, the South and the Sun Belt are frequently characterized as areas that will not suffer [in a recession] to the same degree as the rest of the country. But I happen to have a slightly different view. I think anything occurring in the rest of the country is going to happen there. And the same [logic] flows to the fact that real price movements and inflationary expectations are so deeply entrenched at the moment that I think we simply must do something to try to dislodge that. Added to that is the significant concern and influence of the foreign exchange markets; the unsettled [conditions1 there at the moment are an added dimension that I think requires [concern] on our part. We recognize, too, that there's almost a belief that we will relax [our policy] too early. And that leads me to feel that the realities of our existence suggest that a continuation of our present policy may be easier now than possibly in 1980 when unemployment or other outside pressures are being brought to bear, even if inflation continues unacceptably high. So reading these numbers slightly differently from some of the others, 1 feel that alternative C is pretty close to where we are at the moment. I'd be happy to see that continue, even the 11-1/2 to 15-1/2 percent [federal funds range]. And I'd prefer to see the borrowings more in the $1.8 billion [areal where I believe they are at the moment. So I prefer ""C"" with those [specifications] I'd add.","[{'speaker': 'MR. EASTBURN.', 'text': 'I\'m not sure ""B"" will assure that in the s h o r t run, partly because of M2. On the other hand, I am concerned that ""B"" may produce a decline in interest rates too soon. ""C"" is more restrictive than I would like to see so this leads me to somewhere between ""B"" and ""C,""which is where Chuck comes out. I would leave the funds range where it is and continue to assume the $1-1/2 billion of borrowing. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Kimbrel. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. EASTBURN.', 'text': 'I believe the recession is going to be at least as severe as the staff has projected and possibly worse than that.And I think the Fed is going to come under a great deal of pressure as we move through the first half of next year.I believe we are going to be in a good deal of difficulty with our policy.Given that I think right now we should avoid making the recession worse than it\'s likely to be, I think primarily we should [aim to1 meet the targets that we have specified.We do have a credibility situation that in my view takes first priority.I\'m not sure ""B"" will assure that in the s h o r t run, partly because of M2.On the other hand, I am concerned that ""B"" may produce a decline in interest rates too soon.""C"" is more restrictive than I would like to see so this leads me to somewhere between ""B"" and ""C,""which is where Chuck comes out.I would leave the funds range where it is and continue to assume the $1-1/2 billion of borrowing.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Kimbrel.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
469,472,19800205_88_1,MR. KIMBREL.,"""I have a personal bias toward contemporaneous reserves.""","I have a personal bias toward contemporaneous reserves. And if we were operating so that we could accomplish it, I would certainly opt for that. But I suppose our real thrust [should be] Desk efficiency in discharging our directives, and those at the Desk don't seem to be too enthusiastic about contemporaneous reserves. I accept that against the environment of the costs of programming such a change at the Reserve Banks and commercial banks. And, Mr. Chairman, right at the moment any change in our relationships with our member banks, even this, is not exactly very well timed.","[{'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': 'It may be a means to get the advantages and not have the negative bank relations impact that some of us, at least, are concerned about. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I guess everybody has talked who wants to talk. Is there anybody else who urgently wants to talk? Mr. Kimbrel. When I put the adverb in front of it, you're in trouble! ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""But if there's a bank relations problem, as many think there is, it just might be possible that the kind of proposal Bill Poole made can be structured in such a way that we don't give much away but present it to the banks as though we are giving them something when we are taking away lagged reserves.His kind of penalty scheme, for example, in terms of the carryover would make it possible to say that we are going to take away lagged reserves but we are going to give banks some flexibility they don't have now.And yet if we structure that penalty in the right way, in fact, we're not going to give away much in terms of sloppiness in the reserve figures.Looked at in that way--unless, as Chuck says, we get the whole thing solved with the bill--it might be useful to consider a gimmick like that simply as a bank relations vehicle.It may be a means to get the advantages and not have the negative bank relations impact that some of us, at least, are concerned about.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I guess everybody has talked who wants to talk.Is there anybody else who urgently wants to talk?Mr. Kimbrel.When I put the adverb in front of it, you're in trouble!""}]",yes,yes,sentence,,
470,473,19800422_162_20,MR. SCHULTZ.,"""Let's not panic and do something that will tend to negate the strides we've made.""","Well, I certainly would agree that it is important that we continue with a course that strengthens our credibility. I believe we have made the right moves in going to a different kind of procedure. I think it's important that we hold to that 3-1/2 to 6 percent [Ml] figure for the year. But while I want interest rates to go down--I think it's important that they go down--I really am concerned about the speed with which they go down. We have to keep in mind that this is where the action is right now. The country is looking to the Federal Reserve. Like it or not, we are in the eye of the storm. And people look at interest rates. We've done a lot of things. If there's anything to be said for the whole credit control program--and in my view there's damn little--it's the shock effect. And it has had a shock effect. It was important. [Changing] inflationary expectations was crucial. Why did the actions we took on October 6th not work better? Because people thought [our actions] were just going to be overridden by other things that were happening. So we see interest rates at these awful levels. But people are looking at those interest rates; and if they see them come down too rapidly, they're going to say the Fed has given up [on inflation]. And we're all they have to look to at this point in time. Let's not panic and do something that will tend to negate the strides we've made. We're getting there and we're getting the job done. A fed funds rate of 15 to 16 percent wouldn't bother me much, but I must say that if it starts getting down around 13 percent or below, under these circumstances, I would get really nervous. As you know, we haven't been that good with our forecasts or projections. It does look as if this economy is weakening very rapidly and going off a cliff. But I would remind you that it looked pretty weak in October. It looked as if we had done the job then. Now, [the evidence] is stronger this time, and I feel pretty well convinced; but I don't see the necessity for letting interest rates just absolutely also fall off the cliff. I think the implications of that are very important. We can do something here which says we will stay within the target ranges, but let's not panic on these interest rates. I'd let them come down slowly. I hope we can hold these fed funds rates; I think they're important. I like our new operating procedure but interest rates, whether we like it or not, are a perception that other people have. And I hope we don't get in too much of a hurry and blow this.","[{'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""But on average monetary policy is probably less disruptive if it is more predictable than otherwise. As a consequence, it seems to us that the decision we made last fall was a wise one and we ought to stick to it. And we ought to be rigorously consistent about that because at least over time, as the markets come to understand that we are going to be rigorously consistent, we will reduce substantially not only the risk associated with our own policies but the over-reactions that the market sometimes makes to their perception of our policy. So, as others have said, if interest rates are going to go down, I think this is one time when we just ought to let them go down because we've got to make sure that we establish the credibility in the basic policy thrust that we've been following. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Schultz. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""But we can lay out such a rule in terms of the growth in the aggregates.It's not going to get us to heaven; it's going to have some undesirable consequences from time to time.But on average monetary policy is probably less disruptive if it is more predictable than otherwise.As a consequence, it seems to us that the decision we made last fall was a wise one and we ought to stick to it.And we ought to be rigorously consistent about that because at least over time, as the markets come to understand that we are going to be rigorously consistent, we will reduce substantially not only the risk associated with our own policies but the over-reactions that the market sometimes makes to their perception of our policy.So, as others have said, if interest rates are going to go down, I think this is one time when we just ought to let them go down because we've got to make sure that we establish the credibility in the basic policy thrust that we've been following.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Schultz.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
471,474,19800812_275_2,VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.,"""If M2 is moving up very rapidly, it's not given equal weight by any means.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'What did M2 do in the last month? '}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'It grew at a 17 percent rate. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""I don't understand what Lyle means by taking M2 out. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""In the directive we have targets for M2 along with M-1A and M-1B and we're giving the same weight to the three; all three are mentioned in the directive as such. So if M2 were to exceed its target level, then we would begin to tighten up again, even if M-1A and M-1B did not. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""That's the only way we can deal with this problem: To look at it as a very, very long-run problem and a long-term commitment [on our part] to try to bring inflation down.So, I am quite prepared to go with your suggestion of alternative A. I would wonder, if we go in that direction, if we shouldn't do something about taking M2 out [as an operational variable] because if M2 keeps going up as rapidly as it has been, we might end up having to turn the screws to push interest rates up.And that may not be what we want to do.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'What did M2 do in the last month?'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'It grew at a 17 percent rate.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""I don't understand what Lyle means by taking M2 out.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""In the directive we have targets for M2 along with M-1A and M-1B and we're giving the same weight to the three; all three are mentioned in the directive as such.So if M2 were to exceed its target level, then we would begin to tighten up again, even if M-1A and M-1B did not.""}]",no,,,,
472,475,19800812_288_13,MR. MAYO.,"""We might end up below on M-1A and way over on M2 and be in the same situation we are now.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. EASTBURN.', 'text': 'I\'d take ""A"" and shade it toward ""B."" There is a one point [difference in the growth rates] in the two alternatives, which is wider than we have quibbled about at times. I don\'t think it\'s quibbling too much to [aim for] something in the middle. That\'s what I\'d do. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Mayo. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. EASTBURN.', 'text': 'It is compounded by the fact that we\'re in a cycle with no precedent and we don\'t really know how to time our action.On the one hand, Nancy\'s earlier comment is right that in the discussion about the business outlook we really are basing our opinions on some fairly small evidence over a short period of time.That would lead one to alternative A.On the other hand, Henry\'s argument has a lot of [merit] in that we\'re dealing with an exceptionally difficult situation and we have the possibility of [substantial] growth in the aggregates ahead of us.So perhaps we should take this opportunity to move earlier than we ordinarily would to meet that.Between those two positions, I come out about in the middle.I\'d take ""A"" and shade it toward ""B."" There is a one point[difference in the growth rates] in the two alternatives, which is wider than we have quibbled about at times.I don\'t think it\'s quibbling too much to [aim for] something in the middle.That\'s what I\'d do.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Mayo.'}]",no,,,,
473,476,19800916_149_6,MR. WALLICH.,"""A third might be that the economy is just so inflation jittery that after people catch their breath they rush out and try to beat the game again.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'Is there anything to that or is that just a statistical aberration? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""On average hourly earnings, I don't know of any quirky information in terms of the monthly numbers. We have assumed, in fact, on a quarterly average basis that the hourly earnings index will be running around 9 to 9-1/4 percent, down a little from the second quarter. These numbers are very volatile on a monthly basis but we have not altered our view that there is a developing trend that's very different from what we have seen in the first half of the year. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Wallich. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'But in a world in which we have rapid increases in energy prices, both the implicit deflator and the business fixed product deflator tend to understate what is happening because of the subtraction that is cranked into these numbers.So, you can put your money down and take your choice.There are many indexes available.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Corrigan.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'Jim, I have noticed--and this may be grasping at straws--that the average hourly earnings series for the months of July and August shows a very marked deceleration to around 4-1/2 to 5 percent on top of almost 10 percent for each of the first two quarters.Is there anything to that or is that just a statistical aberration?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""On average hourly earnings, I don't know of any quirky information in terms of the monthly numbers.We have assumed, in fact, on a quarterly average basis that the hourly earnings index will be running around 9 to 9-1/4 percent, down a little from the second quarter.These numbers are very volatile on a monthly basis but we have not altered our view that there is a developing trend that's very different from what we have seen in the first half of the year.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Wallich.'}]",no,,,,
474,477,19800916_505_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""We can always consult, so let's not make that part of the proposal.""","We can always consult, so let's not make that part of the proposal. I, frankly, would be delighted if the money supply comes in so weak that it provokes a consultation as to what to do about it. We'll cross that bridge when and if we come to it.","[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""I didn't think it was a good principle when we did it [when monetary growth was] on the way up, so I shouldn't like it on the way down. It's really getting back to a funds rate target. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I thought you liked those. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""Okay, but [unintelligible] a given rule. Given that option, I'm not proposing to go back to that. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""August is water over the dam and April is water over the dam.We're talking about the next four months.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'M-1B would be right at the top of the range [for this year], I think.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""But Chuck, if there is a weakness in the figures, the markets will reflect that.Therefore, we have a small delay in not correcting the undershootbut it isn't as though we're going to be pushing up--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""But we'll take out the reserves and that will mean that the money supply will be low.And there won't be a self-correcting operation.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""Even though I would like the consequences of that action, I don't think it is a good principle.I didn't think it was a good principle when we did it[when monetary growth was] on the way up, so I shouldn't like it on the way down.It's really getting back to a funds rate target.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I thought you liked those.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""Okay, but [unintelligible] a given rule. Given that option, I'm not proposing to go back to that.""}]",yes,,,,
475,478,19801021_416_1,MR. PARTEE.,"""Some people think we already have.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Then we might be in a position where we have missed them all, adjusted, whereas at least this way we have one-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': '[Unintelligible] M-1A. '}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'We have M3. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'And M2 has been showing some life lately. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': ""We'll go to L! ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': ""I hope you will also hammer in or fight against any move to narrow the target ranges.Heaven knows that we ought to have learned that we really don't know that much about the [relationships among the aggregates] at this time.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""The general impression that emerges to me is that [growth is] high in these target ranges.Whether we're a little over or just within them, the fact is that on a fourth quarter-to-fourth quarter basis, whatever we say, we're on the high side and not the low side.I also hope that these things don't go wild in the next couple of months and that we don't have to say we missed them all and that they are all out of the ranges.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""That's the danger of talking about adjustments.Then we might be in a position where we have missed them all, adjusted, whereas at least this way we have one--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': '[Unintelligible] M-1A.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'We have M3.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'And M2 has been showing some life lately.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': ""We'll go to L!""}]",no,,,,
476,479,19801021_429_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Well, let's [see whether we have a consensus].""",,"[{'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'And that seems ridiculous when we have such a short period of time left. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""I agree; I won't argue. I wouldn't dissent from your proposal, Paul. It's sufficiently balanced and it meets the needs. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'I would buy it reluctantly, too. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""It depends on the profile of the months.Now, if you're talking about a decline in the rate of increase so that we don't have that high of a quarterly average--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""The fact is that we know the market focuses on M-1B.I think that's unfortunate because M-1B is no better than M-1A.They're both bad.I suppose one answer would be just [for the sake] of debate that we have a target for M-1A that is below the midpoint.I think that's arithmetically right, isn't it?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""[Unintelligible] that's right.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'The [M-1A] number in ""B"" is at the midpoint.So if it came in below ""B,"" it would be below the midpoint for M-1A.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'These are tenths in all cases.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""We're literally arguing over tenths.And that seems ridiculous when we have such a short period of time left.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""I agree; I won't argue.I wouldn't dissent from your proposal, Paul.It's sufficiently balanced and it meets the needs.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'I would buy it reluctantly, too.'}]",no,,,,
477,480,19810203_1064_9,MR. WALLICH.,"""But Chuck Partee yesterday made the point that getting back on track really means running below track for a while if we have been above track.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'What would this do to your nominal GNP growth? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Well, it would be down a little. I must say that I would treat all of this with a great deal of caution. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Who else? Governor Wallich. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""If President Black's recommendation were accepted by the Committee, would that be a tighter monetary growth target than you assumed in the Greenbook?He's opting for the 1 point [reduction]--that is, alternative II, with M2 and M3 the way they are specified here.Would that be tighter than your assumption in the Greenbook?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""We would perceive it to be tighter; we view either M-1A or M-1B to be more closely related to developments in the economy than M2.So, as I understand it, [Mr. Black's recommendation] would be a 1 point reduction on ranges for the narrower aggregates, which is 1/2 point tighter than we had assumed.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'So you keyed in on alternative I, in effect.Is that right?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""They keyed to the midpoint of that.I don't know whether it implies necessarily--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""It's 8-1/2 percent on M2.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'What would this do to your nominal GNP growth?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Well, it would be down a little.I must say that I would treat all of this with a great deal of caution.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Who else?Governor Wallich.'}]",no,,,,
478,481,19810331_23_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""It is extremely difficult to identify any peculiar results from intervention per se economically.""","It is extremely difficult to identify any peculiar results from intervention per se economically. Intervention serves a number of purposes, some of which are inherently immeasurable, such as cooperating with a foreign central bank and maintaining some spirit of harmony in markets, and some of which more directly affect markets, such as a psychological objective as to the intentions of the government in combination with or apart from other elements of an economic program. Against that background, what I would suggest is that you take a look at that work, which has already been done. And we can consider next time, having looked at that and refreshed our minds about what has been done, whether we can identify more precisely what additional work, if any, might be desirable. If that's acceptable, we'll have a little discussion of it at the next meeting in that context. It may be that there are things to be looked at and we should have a go at it again; or we may conclude that there isn't much more to be done. But those studies are not fresh in my mind, to say the least. In fact, I would say I have not read them and some of the rest of you may be in that same position. We have to ratify the transactions, if we're finished with this topic. Do we have a motion?","[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'You will find, though, among economists within the System, that both views are supported. And there are lengthy articulations of what assumptions they make about the substitutability of assets denominated in different currencies. The paper was put together by Jeff Shafer and Joanna Gray and Mike Keran and was in a form a little different than often is done; it was issued subsequently as a discussion paper by the Board staff. But it might be instructive. In fact, one of the reasons why we put together the paper was that it did present a reasonable review or survey on these topics without trying to come to a detailed conclusion. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""One important section of that paper, in this context, had to do with the question of exchange rate determination.I would argue from an economic point of view that one has to resolve that issue in one's mind before one resolves questions about the effectiveness of intervention.I think it's fair to say, based on the paper--and in fact the concluding section says this--that the jury is still out in the sense that it is not entirely clear in purely economic terms what the effectiveness of intervention would be.You will find, though, among economists within the System, that both views are supported.And there are lengthy articulations of what assumptions they make about the substitutability of assets denominated in different currencies.The paper was put together by Jeff Shafer and Joanna Gray and Mike Keran and was in a form a little different than often is done; it was issued subsequently as a discussion paper by the Board staff.But it might be instructive.In fact, one of the reasons why we put together the paper was that it did present a reasonable review or survey on these topics without trying to come to a detailed conclusion.""}]",yes,no,,,
479,482,19810331_259_3,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Maybe we should just slip in this lending issue, too, while you have the table, Mr. Sternlight.""","Any discussion? Without objection, we shall approve it. Maybe we should just slip in this lending issue, too, while you have the table, Mr. Sternlight.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""This, again, is a routine item for the [annual organization] meeting. There is no change proposed. It's the basic authorization for domestic operations. ""}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Move it. '}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Second. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'I tried to explain in the Bluebook that the sharp drop in nonborrowed reserves in February, when total reserves also declined about the same amount, reflected the adjustment made in lowering the path below where it had originally been set.And the rise then in March kind of offsets that, because we lowered it and kept the March levels.So, we get a bigger increase in March.The two months together are about right, so to speak.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Well, that's just what you said yesterday when I asked precisely the same question, but we didn't focus on it this way.So I was still not communicating at that time.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Yes, that's right.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We have to ratify the transactions.'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'So move.'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Second.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Without objection, we shall ratify them.If we could take a moment, just in logical order, we have the authorization for domestic open market operations to review.This, again, is a routine item for the [annual organization] meeting.There is no change proposed.It's the basic authorization for domestic operations.""}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Move it.'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Second.'}]",yes,no,,,
480,483,19810518_34_9,MR. WINN.,"""The third point I'll make is that on John's point about office building and other kinds of activities we may have a bit of a booby-trap in this area in that most of those have been financed on construction loans without take-outs in some instances.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""There's a certain hesitance for people to talk about that publicly. I'm not sure why. I guess so much hope is pinned on getting some spending cuts here that they don't want to compromise that. But certainly in private discussions I can't find anybody who thinks that a three-year tax cut is a good idea right now. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Winn. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""In terms of the underlying demands, the suppressed demands, given that in the short run the capacity to snap back very quickly in housing and other areas is so great, I can't see much of a significant downside risk.The major imponderable in all of this is how much financial stress is really there that we don't see.We focus a lot on the thrift industry because we know a lot about it.But I suspect that there probably is a good deal more stress around on balance sheets and other things than we perhaps really perceive.The other point I would make is that, at least in the Ninth Federal Reserve District, I have a hard time finding anybody who thinks that a three-year tax cut is a good idea.There's a certain hesitance for people to talk about that publicly.I'm not sure why.I guess so much hope is pinned on getting some spending cuts here that they don't want to compromise that.But certainly in private discussions I can't find anybody who thinks that a three-year tax cut is a good idea right now.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Winn.'}]",no,,,,
481,484,19810518_34_12,MR. WINN.,"""We may have more for sale here suddenly than some people have expected.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""There's a certain hesitance for people to talk about that publicly. I'm not sure why. I guess so much hope is pinned on getting some spending cuts here that they don't want to compromise that. But certainly in private discussions I can't find anybody who thinks that a three-year tax cut is a good idea right now. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Winn. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""In terms of the underlying demands, the suppressed demands, given that in the short run the capacity to snap back very quickly in housing and other areas is so great, I can't see much of a significant downside risk.The major imponderable in all of this is how much financial stress is really there that we don't see.We focus a lot on the thrift industry because we know a lot about it.But I suspect that there probably is a good deal more stress around on balance sheets and other things than we perhaps really perceive.The other point I would make is that, at least in the Ninth Federal Reserve District, I have a hard time finding anybody who thinks that a three-year tax cut is a good idea.There's a certain hesitance for people to talk about that publicly.I'm not sure why.I guess so much hope is pinned on getting some spending cuts here that they don't want to compromise that.But certainly in private discussions I can't find anybody who thinks that a three-year tax cut is a good idea right now.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Winn.'}]",no,,,,
482,485,19811222_415_2,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""There are all kinds of questions that can be raised about the methodology.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""Steve, I am fascinated by Willis' observation. Can we get at some of this from the clearings [data]? ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, we have data on some of this and we have done some analysis, good or bad, that takes as its point of departure how many checks, the value of checks written, or the value of turnover and says: If that is representative of a transactions account and has a normal turnover of an individual's checking account, x amount of the money market funds are like M1. And it came out to about a little less than 2 percent the last time we-- ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'It was 4 percent, Mr. Chairman. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""For the money market funds, we have attempted to determine in more detail than we now have the various characteristics of the account: the ownership, size, turnover, and other [characteristics] we may think of.We would expect to have a draft of the survey in a few weeks to bring before the Board.That is the stage where we are now and we hope to have it in the field relatively promptly.Whether it could be done and accomplished before the February meeting, I don't know; that seems like a very tight schedule, but we are trying to [meet it].""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""Steve, I am fascinated by Willis' observation.Can we get at some of this from the clearings [data]?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, we have data on some of this and we have done some analysis, good or bad, that takes as its point of departure how many checks, the value of checks written, or the value of turnover and says: If that is representative of a transactions account and has a normal turnover of an individual's checking account, x amount of the money market funds are like M1.And it came out to about a little less than 2 percent the last time we--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'It was 4 percent, Mr. Chairman.'}]",no,,,,
483,486,19820202_952_3,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""If we came out of the clear blue sky and said we are going to change them, that is one thing.""","But the problems that Larry mentioned are, of course, there. It just depends upon the setting. If we came out of the clear blue sky and said we are going to change them, that is one thing. If people saw the economy in bad shape, interest rates at 18 percent and so on, we have a different setting. It is awfully hard to predict these things.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I see him sometimes anyway and there is going to be a certain amount of hullabaloo about it. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'We have real costs in terms of credibility if we change the targets. We ought to change them only if we have good, strong reasons. And I disagree with Larry Roos; I think if we have good strong reasons to change them, we are better off changing them in March or April than right now. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'It was just a passing remark in which he said he felt that the President was going to get together with [the Federal Reserve Chairman]--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': '--for the purpose of coordinating monetary and fiscal policy.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'It really was not an announcement; it was just a passing remark.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'I thought it was Meese who was going to do the talking.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'It probably is going to happen anyway.Senator Baker has been saying it is going to be done all along.So, there is going to be a natural response to that.I would not read anything more into that than when people like Senator Baker are all over the paper saying it should be done.I see him sometimesanyway and there is going to be a certain amount of hullabaloo about it.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'We have real costs in terms of credibility if we change the targets.We ought to change them only if we have good, strong reasons.And I disagree with Larry Roos; I think if we have good strong reasons to change them, we are better off changing them in March or April than right now.'}]",no,,,,
484,487,19820202_1019_1,MR. BOEHNE.,"""I second Governor Gramley's comment.""",I second Governor Gramley's comment.,"[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'I grant that there may be some arguments to the effect that that problem will be a little less in the future. But, as Governor Partee pointed out, we do not know what these IRA accounts are going to do to the magnitude of M2; and more importantly we do not know what will happen to M2 growth if in fact we get a one point or thereabouts increase in the saving rate. That could add [to M2] considerably. And I would much prefer a target range that had some realistic hope of being realized within the context of a growth in nominal GNP in the 8 to 9 percent range. Therefore, I think a persuasive case could be made for raising the M2 range to 7 to 10 percent. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'Given the fact that we are postponing any decision on rebasing, changing the range for M1 would make no sense at all.We would lose any credibility that we might otherwise hold by sticking with this postponement.But for M2 the most persuasive case seems to be the fact that in the past two years growth has been running over the upper end of the target range.I grant that there may be some arguments to the effect that that problem will be a little less in the future.But, as Governor Partee pointed out, we do not know what these IRA accounts are going to do to the magnitude of M2; and more importantly we do not know what will happen to M2 growth if in fact we get a one point or thereabouts increase in the saving rate.That could add [to M2] considerably.And I would much prefer a target range that had some realistic hope of being realized within the context of a growth in nominal GNP in the 8 to 9 percent range.Therefore, I think a persuasive case could be made for raising the M2 range to 7 to 10 percent.'}]",yes,yes,-5 sentences,contradiction,-5 sentences
485,488,19820330_283_14,MR. PARTEE.,"""But we should not say that there's a tremendous flow of credit in these markets.""","Returning to this question of credit flows, which goes a little with your question, Tony: I was interested in that, too, because here we have rising interest rates and we're talking about crowding out. So, I wondered what the figures would show on credit raised by the economy. I find that in the last three quarters--that is, since [the start of] the period of downturn--the total funds raised in the third quarter, fourth quarter, and the first quarter this year as estimated amount to only 11.8 percent of the GNP. To give you an idea, that's almost exactly the same as in the 1974-75 recession in relation to the GNP. And that compares with 16 percent in 1979, 18-1/2 percent in 1978, and 17-1/2 percent in 1977. So, it's a very much smaller flow of funds to credit users than is typical. It's typical of a deep recession and continues to be typical of a deep recession in the first quarter even though interest rates turned up. And by the way, those figures include the government. If it weren't for the government, indeed, the figures would be close to recent historical lows of only 7 percent of GNP being now represented by credit to private sectors. If you look ahead, the interesting thing is that the staff's flow of funds forecast--they have a flow of funds forecast that's consistent with their Greenbook forecast--doesn't show any improvement at all in private credit flows compared with the GNP. What happens is that the government credit flows go up because of the deficit, but the private credit flows stay around the very low 7 percent area in relation to GNP. That says to me, really, that what is being forecast is whatever interest rate is necessary to keep private credit from getting going again. And that's the crowding out hypothesis, I think. But we should not say that there's a tremendous flow of credit in these markets. As a matter of fact the flow of credit is unusually small and it will remain unusually small relative to recent years even with these large government deficits.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""I asked them how they're doing and they said that their domestic business is lousy; their export business, which tends to be quite large, has been hit hard by the rise in the dollar. But the defense business is booming and their only problem in defense is getting the production out. So, that will cushion New England, California, Texas, the leading [defense contractors are in those areas]. It's not going to do much for Si's Middle West, though. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Partee. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""And it seems to me that we're going to have financial conditions that are going to mean a sluggish recovery--perhaps more sluggish than even the staff has estimated.But there is one cushioning factor in the economy that no one has talked about thus far, and that is the tremendous upsurge in defense procurement, which is really beginning to develop a momentum.That will impact the economy very unevenly.Fortunately, in New England we get about three times our proportionate share of defense contracts, so it is cushioning most of our major corporations--like Raytheon and United Technologies and so on--that are in both the defense industry and domestic industry.I asked them how they're doing and they said that their domestic business is lousy; their export business, which tends to be quite large, has been hit hard by the rise in the dollar.But the defense business is booming and their only problem in defense is getting the production out.So, that will cushion New England, California, Texas, the leading [defense contractors are in those areas].It's not going to do much for Si's Middle West, though.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Partee.'}]",yes,no,,,
486,489,19820701_63_3,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""I don't know what your interpretation of well above is.""","It can't be well above. Of course, that does depend upon what one assumes for June but it can't be well above. I don't know what your interpretation of well above is. This week we'll be within the range.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""So, to show our versatility and flexibility, we tried it at 4-1/2 percent and came out pretty much the same way. It really didn't change the [outcome] appreciably. But I do have a lot of differences with most of those who have spoken about what we ought to do with our long-run targets. I'm disappointed, of course, as I'm sure all of us are, that we're ending the first half with M1 and M2 apparently above the upper limits of our ranges. And depending upon what this new revision does to M1, that aggregate might be well above the upper end of its range. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I share many of the concerns that Lyle expressed about the risks in this economy.And I come down to the bottom line that the most likely outcome is very near to what the staff has projected.We actually come out a tad more optimistic in expecting a little more real growth, a little less inflation, and a little lower rate of unemployment.But we were assuming a 4 percent rate of growth in the money supply.So, to show our versatility and flexibility, we tried it at 4-1/2 percent and came out pretty much the same way.It really didn't change the [outcome] appreciably.But I do have a lot of differences with most of those who have spoken about what we ought to do with our long-run targets.I'm disappointed, of course, as I'm sure all of us are, that we're ending the first half with M1 and M2 apparently above the upper limits of our ranges.And depending upon what this new revision does to M1, that aggregate might be well above the upper end of its range.""}]",no,,,,
487,490,19821005_158_2,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""I'm just guessing.""","I think there will be a tendency among some to pay a money market funds rate plus; the question is whether the market gets driven there. I'm just guessing. Among other things, we approved what I think of as the ""bucket shop relief regulation"" at the last DIDC meeting, where an institution can broker all of this money. So, we'll have people advertising all over the country. These will be insured deposits and people will keep it with the guy paying the highest rate. And that will tend to force the rates higher. I would think there would be two tendencies initially: To pay a money market funds rate plus, or to pay something related to the Treasury bill rate. My guess would be that the bill rate fellows might get forced higher. In a tight money situation, I would feel rather confident of that result. With rates going down, if they are going down, I think banks would be cautious. But I think those will be the two polarities. The question is where it will end up.","[{'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': ""It was Mark Antony's. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We will get to the issue of what to do with M1 a little later, but I-- '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Just one last question on the DIDC instrument: Based on your information, what kind of rate do you think the depository institutions will pay as the so-called market rate? Will they simply be competitive and vary it with the average money market fund rate or will they pay a Treasury bill-type rate? What do you think they will pay? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'And by the way, I think the real world effect will be fantastic shifts of funds.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't think there's any question, however, that Roger is right.The impact is going to be much less on M2 and M3 than on M1.The only place it can come out of basically is Treasury bills.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""President Roos, I wasn't suggesting burying M1; I was suggesting that there is a problem over the next two or three months.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': ""Well, you didn't suggest we praise it!""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': ""This is sounding more and more like Pericles' oration on Caesar's burial!""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': ""It was Mark Antony's.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We will get to the issue of what to do with M1 a little later, but I--'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Just one last question on the DIDC instrument: Based on your information, what kind of rate do you think the depository institutions will pay as the so-called market rate?Will they simply be competitive and vary it with the average money market fund rate or will they pay a Treasury bill-type rate?What do you think they will pay?'}]",no,,,,
488,491,19821005_659_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Well, I'm not sure that's right.""","Well, I'm not sure that's right. Their velocity is rising.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'But not the previous two months. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""I know, but the previous two months presumably were affected by the fact that interest rates came down. We have to ask ourselves whether we're talking about a movement along the demand function or a shift in the demand function. And as far as I know, the recent evidence does not strongly point toward an upward shift in demand for money. And that's the way I interpret the staff's comments in the briefing. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Well, if there is, we should have taken that into account in setting our M2 target.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Yes.I think it\'s all right the way it is, if I understand this correctly.""In the light of evidence that economic and financial uncertainties are continuing...""We leave that open as to whether it is continuing.That does say they have happened in the past, which I have said.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""M2 is again very, very low.[Relative to] the targeted M2 now, the last number we have is very low.And it's just awfully hard to see why--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""The last month's number?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'But not the previous two months.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""I know, but the previous two months presumably were affected by the fact that interest rates came down.We have to ask ourselves whether we're talking about a movement along the demand function or a shift in the demand function.And as far as I know, the recent evidence does not strongly point toward an upward shift in demand for money.And that's the way I interpret the staff's comments in the briefing.""}]",yes,yes,-5 sentences,,-5 sentences
489,492,19821116_586_1,MR. CORRIGAN.,"""That's easy to say.""",That's easy to say. But over a period of time--say we've put an absolute restriction on talking to the press for a week or something like that--that doesn't solve the problem.,"[{'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'If we put out the directive on the day of the meeting, in the form in which it is now written, we inevitably are going to get reporters snooping around asking ""What does this really mean?"" and trying to get interpretations. And we will end up with more confusion and not less. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""Not if we don't talk to them. ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""That's right. We don't have to take their calls. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""My speculation is that one reporter got something in the paper, which wasn't itself all that damaging, and it sent the other bloodhounds on the scent.They then got more substantive comments directly, obviously, out of the Federal Reserve.And that was the damaging thing, really.I was upset enough about the Secretary of the Treasury's performance and that story, but the really damaging policy story was the one the next day, which obviously did come from the Federal Reserve.I think it's a perfect example of how one leak generates another.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'That\'s the problem.In terms of the argument that releasing the directive would take care of the leak problem, I\'m concerned that it will work the other way.If we put out the directive on the day of the meeting, in the form in which it is now written, we inevitably are going to get reporters snooping around asking ""What does this really mean?"" and trying to get interpretations.And we will end up with more confusion and not less.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""Not if we don't talk to them.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""That's right.We don't have to take their calls.""}]",yes,no,,,
490,493,19821221_9_3,MR. BOEHNE.,"""Would you attribute that to technical reasons or is there anything there that might be a harbinger of a change in expectations with regard to Fed policy and inflation?""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""He will be here tomorrow morning and we can discuss the international aspects then. Why don't you go ahead and get your report out of the way, which I think is also background. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'Okay, fine. [Statement--see Appendix.] '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Any questions or comments? '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""[situation and outlook].Then we will go to Mr. Axilrod who will talk about the short-run problem but in the context of the longer-run problem.We will then discuss the longer-run problem and come back to the specifics of what we want to do, which would be tomorrow, if that is agreeable.I don't know if it's more logical or not but for some reason it seemed to me it might be more logical.We could wait for [the Managers' reports] tomorrow or we could do that now.Why don't we--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'I can do mine now, Mr. Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""We can turn to Mr. Sternlight now.We can't hear from Mr. Cross now because I asked him to go to a meeting in New York this afternoon.He will be here tomorrow morning and we can discuss the international aspects then.Why don't you go ahead and get your report out of the way, which I think is also background.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'Okay, fine.[Statement--see Appendix.]'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Any questions or comments?'}]",no,,,,
491,494,19821221_198_13,MR. PARTEE.,"""Even if, as Steve suggests, after the stock adjustment we get back to a place where two-thirds of M1 is transactions money, one-third of it won't be.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""But the people I talk to, particularly on the industrial side, as I said earlier, continue to be very, very pessimistic. I think we should put a very heavy eye on interest rates, not only domestically but as they pertain internationally. We simply cannot at this point afford to have any increase in the rates we have some level of control over--mainly on the short-term side--for fear of the possibility that a recovery will be snuffed out. So, I'd be in favor of M2 but I also would be putting a very careful eye on following the interest rates. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'It falls to you, Governor Partee, to pronounce an interim blessing. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""So, having introduced M2 in this way, I think we should carry through with it and use it as our principal guide.It also seems to me, in looking ahead, that we ought to be contemplating an increase in the range on M2 next year--in my view by a considerable amount.Meanwhile, we have an economy that is awfully sick in my view.We could very well be in a recovery phase.But the people I talk to, particularly on the industrial side, as I said earlier, continue to be very, very pessimistic.I think we should put a very heavy eye on interest rates, not only domestically but as they pertain internationally.We simply cannot at this point afford to have any increase in the rates we have some level of control over--mainly on the short-term side--for fear of the possibility that a recovery will be snuffed out.So, I'd be in favor of M2 but I also would be putting a very careful eye on following the interest rates.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'It falls to you, Governor Partee, to pronounce an interim blessing.'}]",no,,,,
492,495,19821221_198_15,MR. PARTEE.,"""The other connective that I can see is credit.""","Well, I actually agreed with a good deal of what Frank Morris had to say. First of all, I think it's clear that we have to have in mind the nominal GNP under the conditions of whatever time period we're looking at. And I guess that has a little something to do with what Bill Ford said. We don't want a really low nominal GNP because it might just take us right on down the hill. On the other hand, of course, we can't have too much monetary expansion over a period of time or it will affect the inflation rate over the longer run. Today, given 4 to 5 percent inflation, I suppose we ought to look for nominal GNP of about 9 percent, which would be 5 to 4 percent real growth. Now, I don't mean that we should target it, but we have to have it in mind; that really is what we're trying to get at any point in time. We have to have some linkage to the nominal GNP. Well, one linkage is transaction balances. And that, of course, is the old M1. I supported that [aggregate] for quite a while. But I really think it is badly damaged and is going to be badly damaged for quite a while. Even if, as Steve suggests, after the stock adjustment we get back to a place where two-thirds of M1 is transactions money, one-third of it won't be. And that one-third will always have a considerable potential for movement that will muddy what is happening in the transaction relationship between what we're doing with money and the nominal GNP that we really would like to see over a period of time ahead. The other connective that I can see is credit. It seems to me that credit flows are very closely related to the performance of GNP some time out. I agree with Frank in that I don't see this causality argument running any more against credit than it does against money. It's just the way people look at things that makes them say it in the one case and not in the other. My problem is that I just don't think we are prepared to go to credit. We don't have the background work done. We don't have the figures and we don't know what the behavioral characteristics are; and, therefore, we can't do it now. But I hope we will do it in the period to come. ""L"" adjusted actually is the best figure in the set of tables, Paul. That's an interesting thing. Adjusted ""L"" is the best result.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""But the people I talk to, particularly on the industrial side, as I said earlier, continue to be very, very pessimistic. I think we should put a very heavy eye on interest rates, not only domestically but as they pertain internationally. We simply cannot at this point afford to have any increase in the rates we have some level of control over--mainly on the short-term side--for fear of the possibility that a recovery will be snuffed out. So, I'd be in favor of M2 but I also would be putting a very careful eye on following the interest rates. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'It falls to you, Governor Partee, to pronounce an interim blessing. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""So, having introduced M2 in this way, I think we should carry through with it and use it as our principal guide.It also seems to me, in looking ahead, that we ought to be contemplating an increase in the range on M2 next year--in my view by a considerable amount.Meanwhile, we have an economy that is awfully sick in my view.We could very well be in a recovery phase.But the people I talk to, particularly on the industrial side, as I said earlier, continue to be very, very pessimistic.I think we should put a very heavy eye on interest rates, not only domestically but as they pertain internationally.We simply cannot at this point afford to have any increase in the rates we have some level of control over--mainly on the short-term side--for fear of the possibility that a recovery will be snuffed out.So, I'd be in favor of M2 but I also would be putting a very careful eye on following the interest rates.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'It falls to you, Governor Partee, to pronounce an interim blessing.'}]",no,,,,
493,496,19830209_427_2,MR. BLACK.,"""We just don't know who is the most wrong.""","Well, we know everybody is wrong. We just don't know who is the most wrong.","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""And in '71 when they didn't go up cyclically, the increase was 2.9 or something like that on velocity. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROBERTS.', 'text': 'Interest rates are now going up, however. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Well, we're not projecting [that] as part of this whole projection. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROBERTS.', 'text': 'It could be wrong. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""In which case the staff's forecast probably also will be wrong--not in the direction of more nominal GNP but less. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""That's why it would be a slowdown from now on.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""That's the reason I went into that issue awhile ago, Mr. Chairman, and you thought I was premature.I was trying to explain why ours was high and it was based upon an assumption that it would bounce back, which it may well not do.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'One percent, historically, would not be much of a bounceback.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""No, it's--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'No, we assumed about 5 percent.That was really the reason I went into what you thought I was going into prematurely: to justify our high forecast.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""But it is of interest, Mr. Chairman, that a lot of the slide occurred when interest rates were going up cyclically.And in '71 when they didn't go up cyclically, the increase was 2.9 or something like that on velocity.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROBERTS.', 'text': 'Interest rates are now going up, however.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Well, we're not projecting [that] as part of this whole projection.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROBERTS.', 'text': 'It could be wrong.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""In which case the staff's forecast probably also will be wrong--not in the direction of more nominal GNP but less.""}]",yes,,,,
494,497,19830209_808_3,MR. CORRIGAN.,"""Now, if we find ourselves in that situation, M1 with all its imperfections and everything else is really the only device to use, in terms of the way we run monetary policy, to be able to snug up.""","I do have a bit of a problem in terms of this question of emphasis on Ml. As I look at it, we're talking about targets in general that at least strike me as being toward the high side in a context in which there's at least a 50-50 chance that we are going to get some recovery, if not a fairly robust recovery, in velocity. Now, if we find ourselves in that situation, M1 with all its imperfections and everything else is really the only device to use, in terms of the way we run monetary policy, to be able to snug up. That may develop out in the year some time, but I--","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Again, I think that is dependent upon what we say in the next paragraph. I just think it's better this way if it has a little less emphasis precisely because it does have less emphasis. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': 'I guess my basic problem is that I wonder if I would give it quite that much less emphasis. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, that\'s going to come up in the next paragraph. Let\'s turn to the next paragraph, which starts out by saying ""[In implementing monetary policy,] the Committee agreed that substantial weight would be placed on behavior of the broader aggregates."" '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'It will go in the summary of the discussion or whatever we call it but--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""It's not a specified target.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'In the summary we could indicate what the total credit would be of which we think bank credit would be about so much.That would take care of it.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': ""The only question I would raise as far as numerical sequencing is: Why not address the Ml situation up front--address it first?I realize it's being downplayed.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I think that's the reason.Again, I think that is dependent upon what we say in the next paragraph.I just think it's better this way if it has a little less emphasis precisely because it does have less emphasis.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': 'I guess my basic problem is that I wonder if I would give it quite that much less emphasis.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, that\'s going to come up in the next paragraph.Let\'s turn to the next paragraph, which starts out by saying ""[In implementing monetary policy,] the Committee agreed that substantial weight would be placed on behavior of the broader aggregates.""'}]",yes,yes,sentence,,
495,498,19830524_113_4,MR. ZEISEL.,"""We've jacked up our trend productivity just a bit.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'I understand that your forecast for the deflator as we get out into the balance of this year is dependent on some improvement in productivity which seems to be fairly significant--about 3 percent growth, if I remember the figures correctly. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ZEISEL.', 'text': 'About 3-1/2 percent. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""3-1/2 percent. Also, if my recollection is correct, that's pretty high in the range of historical experience; if not, tell me so. I'd like to know what makes you so confident that we're going to get this good accomplishment in productivity; I hope we do, but it's apparently essential to getting this good outcome on the inflation front that you people are predicting. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""I certainly share the feeling around the table here that the business outlook is clearly better this time than at the time of the last meeting.It's certainly true in the West.I'm getting a little concerned, though, about the inflation outlook and whether it will be as favorable as the staff forecast has it.I'd like to turn to you again, Jerry, on that one.Our staff is not as optimistic as your people are.I hope you're right.I understand that your forecast for the deflator as we get out into the balance of this year is dependent on some improvement in productivity which seems to be fairly significant--about 3 percent growth, if I remember the figures correctly.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ZEISEL.', 'text': 'About 3-1/2 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""3-1/2 percent.Also, if my recollection is correct, that's pretty high in the range of historical experience; if not, tell me so.I'd like to know what makes you so confident that we're going to get this good accomplishment in productivity; I hope we do, but it's apparently essential to getting this good outcome on the inflation front that you people are predicting.""}]",no,,,,
496,499,19830524_252_4,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""But I don't have any particular objective in mind.""",I think it would be unlikely to go that high and stay that high with the kind of borrowing we're talking about. I wouldn't say it wouldn't touch there on occasion but I think we're talking more 8-3/4 to 9 percent. But I don't have any particular objective in mind. I don't want to shock the market.,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'A perfect inverse correlation! '}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'What interest rate are you aiming for? If you snug up, where do you want the rate to go? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Maximum 9-1/2 percent. '}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""That's too much. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I think the borrowing was all fouled up there; it was much higher, wasn't it?We had the statement date and the aftermath of the statement date.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'The funds rate/borrowing relationships have been quite variable.One week in late April we had borrowing of $678 million and the funds rate averaging 8.58 percent; the next week we had lower borrowing, of $435 million, and the funds rate was averaging 8.80 percent.And then last week we had $550 million borrowing and a funds rate averaging 8.59 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I didn't realize the borrowing levels had been quite that high.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': ""It doesn't help to snug up.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Well, there have been lower weeks of borrowing.To make it a complete story, Mr. Chairman, we had $232 million of borrowing with a funds rate of 8-3/4 percent and $252 million with funds at 8.70 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'A perfect inverse correlation!'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'What interest rate are you aiming for?If you snug up, where do you want the rate to go?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Maximum 9-1/2 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""That's too much.""}]",yes,yes,utterance,,-5 sentences
497,500,19831220_126_7,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""And if this process begins on February 2nd, inevitably I guess we're going to have to say something before then.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': ""How long is it going to be before we can see what the relationship of this new one is with regard to the economy? I think we may, as a group, have a more favorable look at M1 and at a more automatic procedure later. I am sure that many in the markets will continue to feel, surmise, believe in, or have faith in M1 and its close relationship with economic activity. As long as that belief is out there, it's something we have to deal with. But now with the unknowns with regard to velocity and M1 and the risks to this economy by increasing the volatility of interest rates, I simply think we should wait. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': ""I'm thinking, of course, of the international debt situation, of the efficacy of business fixed investment as a sustaining force in the expansion, of housing, and obviously of commercial construction, which I think is going to be the next REIT disaster and which is susceptible to the influence of [interest] rates.It seems to me that there is some potential reward, but it's rather a paper reward, of controlling M1 better.But how long is it going to take us to learn what velocity is going to be and what trend line is going to emerge--either the old one or a new one?How long is it going to be before we can see what the relationship of this new one is with regard to the economy?I think we may, as a group, have a more favorable look at M1 and at a more automatic procedure later.I am sure that many in the markets will continue to feel, surmise, believe in, or have faith in M1 and its close relationship with economic activity.As long as that belief is out there, it's something we have to deal with.But now with the unknowns with regard to velocity and M1 and the risks to this economy by increasing the volatility of interest rates, I simply think we should wait.""}]",yes,no,,,
498,501,19840522_6_1,MR. WALLICH.,"""Sam, what I hear about negotiations with Argentina isn't very positive right now.""","Sam, what I hear about negotiations with Argentina isn't very positive right now. Is there any time limit in terms of the Treasury's arrangements on when they need to arrive at a letter of intent?","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'So moved. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Second. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Without objection. Mr. Cross. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.] '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""If we're finished with this, we can turn to the meeting[agenda] and maybe have the Managers' reports today.We need to approve the minutes of the last meeting.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'So moved.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Second.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Without objection.Mr. Cross.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.]'}]",yes,no,,,
499,502,19840717_101_2,MR. MORRIS.,"""I don't know who to ask, but the staff is forecasting a $115 billion current account deficit in 1985 and a decline in the exchange rate of the dollar against foreign currencies of 15 percent.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""And it's better, at least in terms of thinking about what the correct underlying rate of inflation might be and in trying to forecast the rate even though the short-run favorable developments on the inflation side might be continuing because of the dollar's value. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Balles. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""It's hard to pinpoint the precise reason why our staff forecast is a bit higher than the Board staff's on the inflation rate for next year. But I think it probably has to do with our estimate that as we get into 1985 we will be approaching or at the point, both in terms of the capacity utilization rising and the unemployment rate declining, where in the past we typically have seen an acceleration of inflation. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Morris. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""Everybody has been amused at the constant 15 percent [dollar decline we have forecast]; it is obviously a somewhat notional figure--less precise than some of the other imprecise numbers in our forecast.But I think it is partly motivated by the view that eventually we will have not only a [cessation] of this benefit but a rolling back of some of it.And it's better, at least in terms of thinking about what the correct underlying rate of inflation might be and in trying to forecast the rate even though the short-run favorable developments on the inflation side might be continuing because of the dollar's value.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Balles.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""It's hard to pinpoint the precise reason why our staff forecast is a bit higher than the Board staff's on the inflation rate for next year.But I think it probably has to do with our estimate that as we get into 1985 we will be approaching or at the point, both in terms of the capacity utilization rising and the unemployment rate declining, where in the past we typically have seen an acceleration of inflation.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Morris.'}]",no,,,,
500,503,19840717_243_2,VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.,"""One can either attribute that to the greater intensity of the recession than some earlier recessions or to some feeling that they can't pass on these wages as easily in price increases.""",,"[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Well, in New York, they got [6-3/4] percent. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'Did I understand that most of these are one-year contracts? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, no. I think a lot of them are two-year contracts and this gives the first year. There was a variety, but I think these numbers were for the first year. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""You'd expect very little, if any, wage increase in the depressed industries.What explains the erratic pattern that in some nondepressed industries the increases are still extremely low, whereas in others--?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, it's very clear that we're getting low settlements in some of the deregulated industries.There are two industries in particular: the airlines, which came up here again and again; and the construction workers, for which these aggregate figures show practically no increase in wages.The explanation I hear about that, despite very large increases in construction activity shown in these charts, is the threat of non-unionized workers.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Not only the threat, but the utilization by developers of non-union workers.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Well, in New York, they got [6-3/4] percent.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'Did I understand that most of these are one-year contracts?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, no.I think a lot of them are two-year contracts and this gives the first year.There was a variety, but I think these numbers were for the first year.'}]",no,,,,
501,504,19840821_341_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""I don't remember the one after that.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'You lost me on the last loop. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, if we started off with an M1 figure of 4 percent and we began running above it, depending on where we are, I would not be very anxious to raise the borrowing level. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'That was the second point. I understood that. On the one after that you lost me. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I'm a little troubled by the thought that somehow we would aim as low as 4 or 4-1/2 percent [on M1] even overtly and with that kind of symmetrical approach without knowing a little more about the economy and other things than I know now.I would at least go higher on M1 than any of those alternatives suggest.That's interrelated with how we word the directive.With a higher number we certainly can make it symmetrical, recognizing that we're starting below so we already have this slight bias toward easing.If we end up with a lower number, I don't know what we do.I would make it asymmetrical in the other direction and, therefore, end up in the same place anyway.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'You lost me on the last loop.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, if we started off with an M1 figure of 4 percent and we began running above it, depending on where we are, I would not be very anxious to raise the borrowing level.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'That was the second point.I understood that.On the one after that you lost me.'}]",no,,,,
502,505,19841107_91_10,MR. BOYKIN.,"""So, I'm not really complacent.""","Mr. Chairman, I think it is fair to characterize the situation in the Eleventh District as one where we are continuing to see some improvement. Employment is increasing, industrial production is still moving up, and retail sales look fairly good. I will say that we have had slowdowns from earlier in the year. Weakness, of course, continues in the energy industry, and that might be getting a little worse. We also have had a downturn in construction but, as I indicated last time, I really don't think that's all that bad. I would pretty well agree with the Board staff's forecast. I would expect the fourth quarter obviously to look a little better than the third quarter. At least from the people I've talked to down our way, I have not picked up any real concern about a recession on the horizon as we go into 1985. The confidence factor, at least my own confidence factor, is not quite as strong as it was earlier. So, I'm not really complacent. On the other hand, my degree of discomfort, if you will, is probably not as great as that expressed by a number of people here. It seems to me that we're just coming into a period when there is uncertainty and when decisions become very difficult. I think there is an awfully great risk of overreacting to what might or might not happen.","[{'speaker': 'MS. HORN.', 'text': 'We have a basically positive outlook but a lot of concern is expressed; I think the concerns of many people arise in part because of how discouraged they are with the very strong import competition. Others focus on the long-term problems of the economy: the need for fiscal policy changes, the inflation problems, and so forth. Also, expectations are generally damped by the pause that we see. Although expectations are for growth next year, they are very shaky, and sometimes I wonder if they are held with enough confidence to get us over a few disappointments that we might see in the coming months. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Boykin. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. HORN.', 'text': 'Housing in the District has been flat at best for several months and our bankers continue to comment on the difficult income situation that farmers find themselves in and the problems they will have servicing their debts.The result, as has been pointed out, is increased uncertainty about the outlook for next year.In our District we still have the basic view that the consumer will lift the economy into growth next year; around the District a strong Christmas is widely expected.Expectations are also for a continued thrust from business investment, although presumably at a slower pace.We have a basically positive outlook but a lot of concern is expressed; I think the concerns of many people arise in part because of how discouraged they are with the very strong import competition.Others focus on the long-term problems of the economy: the need for fiscal policy changes, the inflation problems, and so forth.Also, expectations are generally damped by the pause that we see.Although expectations are for growth next year, they are very shaky, and sometimes I wonder if they are held with enough confidence to get us over a few disappointments that we might see in the coming months.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Boykin.'}]",yes,,,,
503,506,19841107_373_3,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""It's more centered and we raised it not so long ago.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'The whole thing starts out with ""decrease somewhat."" I wonder whether we want the ""somewhat."" '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Let's get to that point. Is that general framework of the directive--just in terms of the language--all right? ""}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Mind over matter. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Or we could say ""M1 is expected to grow over the period by 3 percent, less than anticipated earlier in view of the shortfall in October.""'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""That's better.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'What period are we speaking of?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'From September.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'Oh, September to December.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'And then we could go on to say ""In the light of that shortfall, more rapid growth in that aggregate would be acceptable.""'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Do you want to say ""In view of the negative number in October"" rather than ""the shortfall""?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think ""decline in October"" is all right.Then we\'re going to say more generally ""Lesser restraint on reserve positions would be acceptable in the event of significantly slower growth in the monetary aggregates.""I sure don\'t know whether we need that greater restraint sentence.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'The whole thing starts out with ""decrease somewhat.""I wonder whether we want the ""somewhat.""'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Let's get to that point.Is that general framework of the directive--just in terms of the language--all right?""}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Mind over matter.'}]",no,,,,
504,507,19841218_371_3,MR. STERNLIGHT.,"""As to the long-term rates, I think there will be a slight declining effect from lower short-rates.""","To add to that, I think the $250 million of borrowing is likely to give you a steady state kind of situation--a funds rate very close to the discount rate, although we're not really in a steady state and the market widely expects something to happen to the discount rate. So, I expect $250 million of borrowing for the next little while to be associated with fed funds trading closer to 8 percent on average as the market broadly expects something on the discount rate. As to the long-term rates, I think there will be a slight declining effect from lower short-rates. I wouldn't expect a perverse effect on this occasion.","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Mr. Sternlight may have a different view, but I myself think that there's very little chance [of that] at this particular junction, looking over the next four or five or six weeks. But I really ought to say that if you're thinking of $250 million of borrowing, the funds rate is going to rise from the 7 percent area; it's likely to be somewhere around 8-1/2 percent, given the present discount rate. It's not the money market specs we worked out for alternative A. In our own minds [that entailed] an even lower level of borrowing and somewhat higher excess reserves to drive the funds rate further down. I thought I would add that minor point for clarity. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'Some kind of downward push on short-term rates I think, is a good thing, but it depends very much what happens at the long end.It depends also, of course, on whether it would have to be reversed.What are the chances of a sharp drop in the funds rate being followed by a rise?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Mr. Sternlight may have a different view, but I myself think that there's very little chance [of that] at this particular junction, looking over the next four or five or six weeks.But I really ought to say that if you're thinking of $250 million of borrowing, the funds rate is going to rise from the 7 percent area; it's likely to be somewhere around 8-1/2 percent, given the present discount rate.It's not the money market specs we worked out for alternative A.In our own minds [that entailed] an even lower level of borrowing and somewhat higher excess reserves to drive the funds rate further down.I thought I would add that minor point for clarity.""}]",yes,yes,sentence,neutral,utterance
505,508,19850213_238_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Well, I'm not quite asking that.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I went on a little campaign a couple of years ago when the staff had palsy in that they couldn't write these things without making a cone. But, one part of the substance, anyway--in fairness, I don't think it's all that the Council [of Economic Advisers] had in mind--is whether we are disturbed that we are above the cone now. Now, this gets into the short-run policy decision a little as well as the longer-run. But I think-- ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Growth has been pretty fast, if that's what you're asking. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""You said you'd get around to the idea of the parallel lines rather than the cone.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I'm getting around to it right now.If I view the consensus accurately on the cones [it is not to] rebase.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""But my point is that if we don't rebase, we should do something else or I think we'll have a big problem with M1 appearing to be over its range for a good part of--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, on this issue of how we draw the picture I will declare my position: I have never liked cones.I went on a little campaign a couple of years ago when the staff had palsy in that they couldn't write these things without making a cone.But, one part of the substance, anyway--in fairness, I don't think it's all that the Council [of Economic Advisers] had in mind--is whether we are disturbed that we are above the cone now.Now, this gets into the short-run policy decision a little as well as the longer-run.But I think--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Growth has been pretty fast, if that's what you're asking.""}]",no,,,,
506,509,19850213_474_1,MR. BOYKIN.,"""I would go with ""B"" also.""","I would go with ""B"" also.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'It seems to me that the odds are that M1 will exceed 8 percent. My only discomfort is that 8-1/4 percent may not be the correct fed funds rate for the short run; maybe it should be 8-1/2 percent. But I take it that there is enough flexibility built into our procedures [to allow for] an 8-1/2 percent rate if we need it to get 8 percent [M1 growth] or whatever that is--less than the 10 percent and 12 percent that we\'ve been experiencing in recent months. Given that assumption, I would go along with ""B."" '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Boykin. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'I would point out that we\'ve been bordering on the high side of monetary growth and, when I say ""remain unchanged,"" I have in mind a moving down in the rates of monetary growth of the sort that the staff is projecting for the quarter.If that didn\'t occur, I think it would give us trouble.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Boehne.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'I ditto what Chuck just said.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'So do I.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'So do I.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'I go along with ""B,"" Mr. Chairman.My only reservation with regard to ""B"" is what the band of confidence is around the 8 percent December-to-March number for M1.It seems to me that the odds are that M1 will exceed 8 percent.My only discomfort is that 8-1/4 percent may not be the correct fed funds rate for the short run; maybe it should be 8-1/2 percent.But I take it that there is enough flexibility built into our procedures [to allow for] an 8-1/2 percent rate if we need it to get 8 percent [M1 growth] or whatever that is--less than the 10 percent and 12 percent that we\'ve been experiencing in recent months.Given that assumption, I would go along with ""B.""'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Boykin.'}]",yes,yes,-5 sentences,entailment,-5 sentences
507,510,19850710_297_1,VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.,"""Well, there's still the question of how much weight to give it.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Change the range through the year. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'Yes, change the range for the year. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Without rebasing. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'Without rebasing. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That's not ignoring it. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Savings accounts would come back into their own.Who knows what might happen to savings accounts?So, I think we have to have a certain amount of diffidence in talking about what might happen in the aggregates in 1986 because of that event.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, let's very tentatively assume that we are not going to change M2 and M3 and debt--we'll go back to look at them--as background to the discussion of M1.Does anybody want to change the range for the year?I haven't heard any sentiment of that sort: to go back to the beginning of the year and just raise the range for M1 for '85.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': ""Yes, rather than rebasing.I wouldn't want to rebase at the present time for reasons that Chuck stated.I would prefer, if we are going to ignore M1, to just ignore it.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I'm not saying that now.That is another option.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'Another option--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Change the range through the year.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'Yes, change the range for the year.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Without rebasing.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'Without rebasing.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That's not ignoring it.""}]",no,,,,
508,511,19850820_278_2,MR. GUFFEY.,"""I am satisfied with the answer then.""",Okay. I am satisfied with the answer then.,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': '[lowering it] without specifying the reasons. Excuse me, did somebody have something to say down there? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'Well, I am a bit puzzled. We are in the middle of August now, and if the projections for the money supply in August are somewhat correct, there would have to be a very dramatic movement it would seem to me from the projected 4 percent in September for us to move off the $425 million. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'If you are only looking at the money supply. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'But I guess I would interpret this wide margin as saying that something outside of that--not necessarily [unintelligible] obviously--might be the occasion for a little mid-meeting discussion.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'So, unless something pushes it rather strongly in one direction or another, it does become the operating range for the period.It is different than what we have done before.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think this will be a little different twist.There is some mistake, I guess, to reading this [unintelligible] as you tell me.But I think this is a little different from saying, for instance, $425 million and then raising it a little or[lowering it] without specifying the reasons.Excuse me, did somebody have something to say down there?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'Well, I am a bit puzzled.We are in the middle of August now, and if the projections for the money supply in August are somewhat correct, there would have to be a very dramatic movement it would seem to me from the projected 4 percent in September for us to move off the $425 million.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'If you are only looking at the money supply.'}]",yes,yes,-5 sentences,,
509,512,19850820_413_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""In terms of a policy statement, we'd accept [unintelligible] depending upon what we do and given this uncertainty.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': '9 percent is what I want. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': ""I'd prefer 8-1/2 percent. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""I'd like to stick in some way with the range that we set; maybe we can straddle it with 7 to 9 percent. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Well, this is an expectation and not a policy statement. Maybe-- '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'The trouble that I see with that is the 7 percent; it is realistically less than most people think it is going to get to, I guess.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'Well, it should be.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'But to use 7 to 9 percent, centering on 8 percent, seems to me to provide flexibility that would be desirable.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'We need a decline in September to get 7 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Why do we say ""relatively rapid growth""?That sounds like it wasn\'t really very rapid growth at all--that it was sort of rapid growth.And it was a heck of a lot bigger than that.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, take out the ""relatively.""'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That's acceptable?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': '""Given the rapid growth in recent weeks"" is what we say?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'What number do you want to put in?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': ""9 percent is the expectation, isn't it?Why don't--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': ""9 percent is what I'd like to see.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': '9 percent is what I want.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': ""I'd prefer 8-1/2 percent.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""I'd like to stick in some way with the range that we set; maybe we can straddle it with 7 to 9 percent.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Well, this is an expectation and not a policy statement.Maybe--'}]",yes,,,,
510,513,19851105_76_1,MR. TRUMAN.,"""That's essentially a delayed reaction to the very steep decline because from here on out we have a gradual move.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""Well, I think that's a pretty big kick: 9 percent. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""Well, you get a kick early on from service receipts in the reevaluation in the current quarter. But looking ahead, where we think this begins to kick in is at the very end of 1986; presumably 1987 is the important year and it's beyond the forecast horizon. But it's late '86 at best where we see some particular strength and then we see it carrying on. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""But I think it's not far from what we believe is historical experience, given the quality of information on trade data at this point, which is not very good.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""I might say that the net export sector contributes about a half percent to growth next year.So, we would have essentially 2 percent real growth fourth-to-fourth quarter if you held net exports constant.That's the impact of these numbers Ted is talking about.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""On your gradual depreciation path, at what point will we expect to get a real upward kick from net exports?Obviously, it's not in 1986.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""Well, I think that's a pretty big kick: 9 percent.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""Well, you get a kick early on from service receipts in the reevaluation in the current quarter.But looking ahead, where we think this begins to kick in is at the very end of 1986; presumably 1987 is the important year and it's beyond the forecast horizon.But it's late '86 at best where we see some particular strengthand then we see it carrying on.""}]",no,,,,
511,514,19860212_37_12,MR. TRUMAN.,"""Well, Korea is one of these non-OPEC developing countries; therefore, you might expect that, to some extent, to give them a somewhat better picture.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""Ted, I am asking a question around chart 16, but I don't see what I am really looking for. It has to do with the LDC countries; you slipped in a rather quick comment about the Baker plan and what it would do for those countries. But I would think that since the announcement of the Baker plan last year the funding needs of those LDC countries, particularly Mexico, would have been altered rather significantly. My question is: Does that have implications for real growth, for stability? How does that feed into your analysis? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': ""I thought the index flattened in October, but if you are using year-over-year figures, I don't know how it works out.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""It was decreasing at a slower rate of speed.Now it's right.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""In fact, on this index there's about a 6 percent increase against the lows in the summer.Now, this is a broader index because it includes food, particularly coffee, than just an industrial supplies index.The industrial supplies index, instead of this positive number here, shows something on the order of a 3 percent decline.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Boehne.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""Yes.Ted, I am asking a question around chart 16, but I don't see what I am really looking for.It has to do with the LDC countries; you slipped in a rather quick comment about the Baker plan and what it would do for those countries.But I would think that since the announcement of the Baker plan last year the funding needs of those LDC countries, particularly Mexico, would have been altered rather significantly.My question is: Does that have implications for real growth, for stability?How does that feed into your analysis?""}]",no,,,,
512,515,19860819_218_6,MR. KEEHN.,"""They finally, and maybe belatedly, have come to the conclusion that they just can't compete [unintelligible].""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'From our perspective in the heartland, there has been some encouragement taken from the recent legislation for export subsidies of farm products--farm exports being a very big component part of our exports. I guess my question to Ted would be: Have you factored in the result of that subsidy program? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'We have. We had built in a drop in exports of the agricultural sector in the first and second quarters in anticipation of that program. That is one basis for the modest increase we have, which is on the order of $2 or $3 billion in 1982 dollars, in our agricultural exports over the period. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'I might add that I have a table here of our forecast and 8 other forecasts of the current account for 1987 and of the 9 forecasts listed on this table we have the largest deficit at $135 billion; the lowest is $98 billion.Now, there are price and quantity effects involved; so we may be too pessimistic on the price side and too optimistic on the quantity side.The two together, in any case, would produce for us a much higher current account deficit than anybody else who is represented in this listing.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'From our perspective in the heartland, there has been some encouragement taken from the recent legislation for export subsidies of farm products--farm exports being a very big component part of our exports.I guess my question to Ted would be: Have you factored in the result of that subsidy program?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'We have.We had built in a drop in exports of the agricultural sector in the first and second quarters in anticipation of that program.That is one basis for the modest increase we have, which is on the order of $2 or $3 billion in 1982 dollars, in our agricultural exports over the period.'}]",no,,,,
513,516,19861216_375_1,MR. KOHN.,"""I think that's possible""","I think that's possible but, as I indicated yesterday, I think some of the interest elasticity that we are observing now may be exaggerated. If the offering rates begin to move up or down with market rates then we would observe what the elasticity is with respect to market rates. But it's still going to be very substitutable, at the margin, with other closely related deposits. I don't think that we will get back to where we were before.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Plus or minus one percent? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'Plus one percent, in terms of velocity. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'Adjusted for income and interest rates. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'Well, adjusted for interest rates. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Don, how likely do you think it will be that eventually we will get to the point where these rates paid on other checkable deposits will vary pretty directly with market rates? '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'But we could add on to that the thought that, in a context in which GNP, velocity, and inflation were rising, the Committee would be prepared to reconsider Ml as a target--or something like that without being specific about a quarterly target.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Even though I asked for a monitoring range, I am happy to join this consensus.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'Instead of monitoring range, maybe a better term would be an observation area, or something like that.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, implicit in what I am saying, anyway, is that we will continue to observe Ml.I don't know exactly what the right wording is, but we would observe it within some analytic framework, if we could state it.[Unintelligible], I'm afraid, unless Mr. Kohn can give me a little more reassurance than he gave me yesterday.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""I think the model would say it's close to one percent, but I think it's still in a period of evolution.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Plus or minus one percent?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'Plus one percent, in terms of velocity.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'Adjusted for income and interest rates.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'Well, adjusted for interest rates.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Don, how likely do you think it will be that eventually we will get to the point where these rates paid on other checkable deposits will vary pretty directly with market rates?'}]",yes,yes,utterance,,
514,517,19870211_411_4,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""We'll come back with [specific] language; I think it needs a little massaging.""","And at a particular time during the year, the implication is that we may specify a target. Those four thoughts somehow we should get in the paragraph. I know that's pretty vague. We'll come back with [specific] language; I think it needs a little massaging. Is that acceptable, generally?","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Let me say if we don't set a figure, presumably we will say, in some words, that we're not going to establish a range for the year as a whole at this time--which is what this says. Probably some general language that we expect it to be lower this year than last year is appropriate. And then we give some clear flavor about the conditions in which we would expect it to be either high or low without being definitive about it. Those are the essentials we want to get in this paragraph. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'And the idea that it might be or could be targeted [later]. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': ""I trust you can dress it up well in the testimony.But I think one of the things we really should do is redouble our efforts to study M1 and the proper definition of M1 so that we will be able to sort out some of those behavior patterns.Maybe we'll be able to do that in a better way than we're able to do it right now.In any case, I would avoid setting a figure for M1 growth.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Let me say if we don't set a figure, presumably we will say, in some words, that we're not going to establish a range for the year as a whole at this time--which is what this says.Probably some general language that we expect it to be lower this year than last year is appropriate.And then we give some clear flavor about the conditions in which we would expect it to be either high or low without being definitive about it.Those are the essentials we want to get in this paragraph.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'And the idea that it might be or could be targeted [later].'}]",yes,no,,,
515,518,19870331_558_1,MR. JOHNSON.,"""I would say around 6 percent.""",I would say around 6 percent.,"[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""We can say somewhat less. I think Bob Heller doesn't want to say somewhat; he would rather say 4 to 7 percent than somewhat less. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': 'If you change the words--the way you said it I would be happy. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We have 4 to 7 percent, 6 percent or somewhat less, or around 6 percent. Of the members of the Committee, who would prefer to say, of these three choices, ""around 6 percent""? '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""All I would say is that after what happened last year, and given what's going on, if they come in at 9 percent I would be more unhappy than if they came in at 3 percent.I am not saying that it would be the end of the world.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""I would hate it because they are coming in at 3 percent and I don't want to ease when they are coming in at 3 percent.Aren't they coming in at 3 percent?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""What's happening now is built into the projection of the staff, which is around 6 percent.Now, unless you believe that it's going to continue this way--""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'Put 6 percent or somewhat less.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""We can say somewhat less.I think Bob Heller doesn't want to say somewhat; he would rather say 4 to 7 percent than somewhat less.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': 'If you change the words--the way you said it I would be happy.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We have 4 to 7 percent, 6 percent or somewhat less, or around 6 percent.Of the members of the Committee, who would prefer to say, of these three choices, ""around 6 percent""?'}]",yes,no,,,
516,519,19870519_156_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""The problem is that I don't know what you can tell them right now because we have inside [information].""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""In fact, what's happening is that a couple of numbers on the balance sheet are changing. It is going to raise a lot of questions, obviously, in the minds of a lot of people about other banks. There are a lot of rumors about around the market. We can discuss later what is going on in the market. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Paul, are the rumors sufficient that I could call an institution that I might have some concerns about? '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""They are making a reallocation of their capital accounts and are going to put $3 billion into reserves against general contingencies, which will get pretty precisely identified with LDC risk.They say that is not their intention but the accountants are forcing them into it, looking for some explicit excuse.This will be a record loss for any bank, by some multiple, in a quarter, and a big loss for the year.I am sure the idea they have in mind is that they will then show very favorable earnings in subsequent quarters; they won't have this quarter-by-quarter drag of large provisions and everything is going to look much better.In fact, what's happening is that a couple of numbers on the balance sheet are changing.It is going to raise a lot of questions, obviously, in the minds of a lot of people about other banks.There are a lot of rumors about around the market.We can discuss later what is going on in the market.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Paul, are the rumors sufficient that I could call an institution that I might have some concerns about?'}]",no,,,,
517,520,19870519_410_1,MR. MORRIS.,"""Yes--only because I like to have something in the closet.""","Yes--only because I like to have something in the closet. Otherwise, the only alternative response is a still tighter monetary policy.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'And it would certainly align the discount rate better with the funds rate than a move of a half point. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Assuming the funds rate stays where it is. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Yes, assuming it stays at 6-3/4 percent. That speaks for itself. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""But you're against moving the discount rate. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'But $600 million borrowing or the change in the discount rate with $400 million on borrowing are more or less equivalent.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'That was 6-3/4 percent--or maybe a little higher, to 7 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'There is also the question of how much the discount rate is raised, if it is raised.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I am assuming we are talking about a half point, but obviously--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Well, if the funds rate is at 6-3/4 percent, it seems to me a half point is a little [unintelligible].Normally, one would expect a 6-1/4 percent discount rate.If we are doing it to get some impact on the foreign exchange market, which still makes sense to me, I think an increase above a half point might attract a little more attention.And it would certainly align the discount rate better with the funds rate than a move of a half point.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Assuming the funds rate stays where it is.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Yes, assuming it stays at 6-3/4 percent.That speaks for itself.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""But you're against moving the discount rate.""}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,-5 sentences
518,521,19870707_480_3,MR. HELLER.,"""We have never changed an M2 or an M3 target.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'It takes 7-1/2 percent [from now until year end] to get 5-1/2 percent. I assume it would take about 11-1/2 percent to get 7-1/2 percent. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""11-1/2. I don't think it will exceed the upper end of the range, whatever we do. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Of course. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""I don't want us to lower the ranges for this year and then say we mean it.Because then we get into a situation that requires another move.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""You're saying lower the range for this year?Or do you mean lower the range now for next year?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'No, I said this year.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't know what the arithmetic is.I am not arguing about it.I don't much care whether it is lowered this year; it's a little awkward to explain.If we didn't lower it this year, from now to the end of the year at what rate of speed would M2 have to grow to exceed the 7-1/2 percent?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'To exceed 7-1/2 percent would probably take 11-1/2 percent.It takes 7-1/2 percent [from now until year end] to get 5-1/2 percent.I assume it would take about 11-1/2 percent to get 7-1/2 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""11-1/2.I don't think it will exceed the upper end of the range, whatever we do.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Of course.'}]",no,,,,
519,522,19871216_638_3,MR. HELLER.,"""And if you look at the Greenbook, the next quarter's GNP is down 1.1 percent: consumption is negative; durables and nondurables are negative; industrial production is down to a 1.0 percent increase; housing starts and auto sales are at the lowest levels since 1983.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""It's in that context that I've been, I suppose, oversensitive to any tendency on our part to peg the fed funds rate. I'm just afraid to peg the fed funds rate in an environment in which we would not have interest rates responding to those real forces. I share the view that letting the dollar go is a recipe for disaster. We're not getting the kind of help we ought to be getting on Capitol Hill, but it seems to me we either have to take some steps in that direction, or we're going to get an experience that none of us wants. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Heller. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""I understand why the monetarists argue for floating exchange rates, but you just don't get something for nothing.If we have floating exchange rates, then we'd have to accept floating interest rates also.And it would scare me as to what a precipitous move in exchange rates might do to U.S. interest rates.Frankly, I think that the stock market episode and the recent oil price move have simply given our bond markets some opportunity not to face the real consequences that a continuation of the dollar on this course would mean.It's in that context that I've been, I suppose, oversensitive to any tendency on our part to peg the fed funds rate.I'm just afraid to peg the fed funds rate in an environment in which we would not have interest rates responding to those real forces.I share the view that letting the dollar go is a recipe for disaster.We're not getting the kind of help we ought to be getting on Capitol Hill, but it seems to me we either have to take some steps in that direction, or we're going to get an experience that none of us wants.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Heller.'}]",no,,,,
520,524,19880210_491_2,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""I'm sorry, you're quite right.""","No, no, I didn't mean that. I'm sorry, you're quite right. The question is how we interpret ""A"" and ""B"". What we have to do is take $200 million symmetrically.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I would interpret this to be maintaining the pressure in recent days, with some slightly asymmetrical language towards ease if one can find such language in here. My impression, however, is that the instructions to the Desk are reasonably clear in the sense that everyone has indicated--there are differences within a relatively narrow range, I think, but they are not as great as they might be. Anybody have any comments or statements on anything? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'I think I could compromise at $200 million if we can be symmetric. But to go to $200 million and then also be asymmetric-- '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""The distribution of the borrowings objectives is: $250 million (4); $200 million (4); $150 to $200 million (1); and $150 million (2).I would read the mode, at this point, as represented by $200.And that implies a funds rate of roughly 6-1/2 percent, as I understand it.Does anybody read the voting members of this Committee differently from that?That's the tabulation I got.I would interpret this to be maintaining the pressure in recent days, with some slightly asymmetrical language towards ease if one can find such language in here.My impression, however, is that the instructions to the Desk are reasonably clear in the sense that everyone has indicated--there are differences within a relatively narrow range, I think, but they are not as great as they might be.Anybody have any comments or statements on anything?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'I think I could compromise at $200 million if we can be symmetric.But to go to $200 million and then also be asymmetric--'}]",yes,yes,,,
521,525,19880630_144_2,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""Everyone is commenting explicitly that while the wage data don't show this, there's a subliminal sense of changing wage demand pressures.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""Admittedly, the results are coming in very favorably--the numbers look positive--but I just sense that in the bargaining process labor has a harder attitude than they have had in the past. So far the unit labor costs have remained in check because the [unintelligible] changes have been good; productivity increases have been pretty good. But I think, intuitively, the risks on the inflation side just have to be on the upside. And certainly, the agricultural picture only adds a little pressure--yet to be determined how much--but a little pressure on the upside. So, I'd agree with Vice Chairman Corrigan that the risks here on inflation are very much on the upside, not on the downside. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""I have talked to a number of people who have the expectation that such prices will stay about level for a while--not go down, but not continue the kind of increases that we've experienced over the last six months or a year.On the wage side, I think there is a hardening attitude developing in the wage contracts.Admittedly, the results are coming in very favorably--the numbers look positive--but I just sense that in the bargaining process labor has a harder attitude than they have had in the past.So far the unit labor costs have remained in check because the [unintelligible] changes have been good; productivity increases have been pretty good.But I think, intuitively, the risks on the inflation side just have to be on the upside.And certainly, the agricultural picture only adds a little pressure--yet to be determined how much--but a little pressure on the upside.So, I'd agree with Vice Chairman Corrigan that the risks here on inflation are very much on the upside, not on the downside.""}]",no,,,,
522,526,19880920_58_1,MR. PRELL.,"""Well, you're asking me to make a policy judgment, a subjective judgment about the short-run costs and benefits of a policy you have in mind.""","Well, you're asking me to make a policy judgment, a subjective judgment about the short-run costs and benefits of a policy you have in mind. What we have tried to make is a positive statement: That if you want to avert some acceleration of inflation, we need to reduce the pressures on resources. The more that is done, the greater the chances are you will see no acceleration at all in the underlying inflation rate next year and that you will be able to tip it down noticeably in 1990. I think it will take more than we have built in here to make a decided move towards restoring a disinflationary trend by 1990.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'I think I cited a number of 2-1/2 percent, Governor Angell, as what we believed potential GNP growth is. Therefore, it depends how fast you want to get the inflation rate down. If-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'What would you think would be the optimum adjustment process? I mean, do you like 1-1/2 percent better than 2-1/2 percent? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Therefore, we believe that we've got to grow something under that in order to ease those pressures.We recognize the uncertainties about where the natural rate of unemployment is, if that's the operative concept.We recognize that the composition of activity can make a difference of--.This is a rough judgment, ultimately; I don't want to get too precise about it, but basically we think we need some additional restraint to get the economy below potential, and we believe that that probably is necessary.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""But, Mike, precision is helpful in communication.I can take the time to pry the number out of you by asking you a series of questions, but it would save some time if you'd simply tell us.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'I think I cited a number of 2-1/2 percent, Governor Angell, as what we believed potential GNP growth is.Therefore, it depends how fast you want to get the inflation rate down.If--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'What would you think would be the optimum adjustment process?I mean, do you like 1-1/2 percent better than 2-1/2 percent?'}]",no,,,,
523,527,19881214_51_4,MR. HELLER.,"""Making minute adjustments at the bottom can balance the pyramid, but it's not at all clear that that will always avoid major movement of the pyramid either.""","Well, on previous occasions I've said that I was always amazed that $100 million changes could move the economy around like a [unintelligible]. I think the current [unintelligible] shows that it is very difficult to have a stable relationship between something that small and something that large. It's sort of like having a big pyramid standing exactly on its tip. Making minute adjustments at the bottom can balance the pyramid, but it's not at all clear that that will always avoid major movement of the pyramid either. In any case, like Mr. Johnson said, as soon as we see some instability there, we are ready to abandon the operating procedures that we have, and we immediately go back to federal funds targeting. I sent around a paper from the OECD and last week [at the OECD meeting] there was a topic of discussion indicating that virtually every single country represented around the table had an operating procedure that was focusing on a federal funds rate equivalent. On the other hand, a number of the countries typically used a monetary growth range for various aggregates as medium-term targets. And, on balance, I think that is probably as good a combination as one can get. You know, use the fed funds operating target itself and then have a medium range monetary growth objective in mind and steer the federal funds rate in order to attain that target. That allows for deviations like those specified in Don Kohn's paper. That's a very good paper, a very thorough discussion. These velocity changes that we can assess and predict with pretty good accuracy [unintelligible] might be amazed in that respect [unintelligible] take that into account. As a result, I think we could have a very consistent package that would allow us to attain the targets with a higher degree of precision than the borrowing target procedure allows us. What I would do with borrowings is use it as an indicator variable, a variable to watch along with the others. Then you would get the market signals, the market feedback, that you could still take into account and incorporate along with the other things that we are watching, but you would do so in a systematic and explicit fashion. Thank you.","[{'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""This is just more evidence in my opinion of the need for flexibility and sensitivity toward the funds rate in situations like this. Since I've been here, there have been, in my opinion, more periods of instability in the borrowing function than of stability. And so I'm not at all against this procedure as long as it's flexible. But trying to blindly pursue that problem target is very hazardous. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Heller. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""We are not Mozart, we recognize that.I have only a little to add to the memos we've already seen and to the comments Peter already has made in today's discussion.[Statement--see Appendix.]""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Questions for Mr. Kohn?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""I think you're right.I mean, that was a well done explanation.And as you pointed out, what resulted was probably not much different, but I think that's because of the flexibility that was pursued by the Desk.I really would hate to think of what the result would have been if you had actually tried systematically to produce that borrowing target.This is just more evidence in my opinion of the need for flexibility and sensitivity toward the funds rate in situations like this.Since I've been here, there have been, in my opinion, more periods of instability in the borrowing function than of stability.And so I'm not at all against this procedure as long as it's flexible.But trying to blindly pursue that problem target is very hazardous.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Heller.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,,utterance
524,528,19890208_175_1,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""Let me start off by requesting that each individual President and Governor try to get a final revised forecast for the Humphrey-Hawkins series to us prior to 3 p.m. on Friday, February 10 if that's at all possible.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""One gets the impression that the sequence that occurred as a consequence of that has slowed down somewhat, at least if you listen to the oral remarks. I don't know how long that is going to last and what it's saying, but one does not get the sense of a continuous process moving. It's getting close to break time and I think we're pretty much on schedule, so I guess there's no reason why we cannot meet as scheduled at 9:30 a.m. tomorrow morning. So, unless anybody has a problem-- ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""But at the moment the issue is really very mild; there are no strong reactions.The only strong reaction I saw in the G-7 meeting was when But the rest of the session was relatively pleasant.So at the moment I would say that one finds a remarkable degree of tranquility in the international outlook as perceived amongst the industrial countries.And I do not get the impression from the governors that they are in an aggressively tightening mode--in other words, after the Germans moved on the Lombard and discount rates.One gets the impression that the sequence that occurred as a consequence of that has slowed down somewhat, at least if you listen to the oral remarks.I don't know how long that is going to last and what it's saying, but one does not get the sense of a continuous process moving.It's getting close to break timeand I think we're pretty much on schedule, so I guess there's no reason why we cannot meet as scheduled at 9:30 a.m. tomorrow morning.So, unless anybody has a problem--""}]",no,,,,
525,529,19890208_370_1,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""Taking a rough score it appears that there is a significant weighting towards alternative ""I,"" so why don't I officially put that up for a formal vote.""","Taking a rough score it appears that there is a significant weighting towards alternative ""I,"" so why don't I officially put that up for a formal vote.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""That's the [unintelligible] language. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Plural? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Right. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': 'The capitalized language. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': 'Yes. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Well, before we vote, does anybody have any problem with the directive language on pages 20 and 21 in the Bluebook?Very specifically, what is the Committee's view of the alternative at the end of the middle paragraph on page 21?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': 'What if you just drop it?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'You mean the paragraph itself?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': ""Yes.We didn't have a Ml, so--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': 'It has been repeated many times.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': 'Yes, repeated many times.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""Yes, I think that's a good idea.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': 'So just drop it.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Anybody have any objection to dropping it?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'I have no problem dropping the M1 reference but I think the last sentence is still important.'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Well, we could say ""The behavior of all the monetary aggregates will be evaluated....""'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""Yes, that's an important sentence.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Okay.Why don't we keep the last sentence but drop the--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'But do we want to say ""The behavior of all the monetary aggregates will be evaluated in....""'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'Of the aggregates.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""That's the [unintelligible] language.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Plural?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Right.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': 'The capitalized language.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': 'Yes.'}]",no,,,,
526,530,19890516_180_15,MR. BOYKIN.,"""Having been burned as badly as we were, we don't want to overstate that.""","Mr. Chairman, in the Eleventh District our economy continues to grow. Even in Louisiana, where for the first time in quite some time the unemployment rate has slipped down to single digits, it's looking a little better. Growth is getting increasingly closer to the national rate; part of that, of course, is some of the slowing of the U.S. rate. We are seeing more and more signs that we are looking more like other Federal Reserve Districts; we're not quite the outlier that we were. Labor shortages of specific types are cropping up. Engineers, for example, are in very short supply. We're even seeing help wanted signs appearing throughout Dallas. Unemployment rates in many Texas cities are now in the low 5 percent area. Nonetheless, the greatest strain still is centered along the Gulf Coast area--Houston in particular--and in the lower Rio Grande Valley. We still have problems in some of the other areas of the District. Banking and real estate are still dragging us down a little in Dallas, Austin, Shreveport and similar areas. Manufacturing continues to grow above the national rate. And in the services sector employment was matching the national growth. In sum, Mr. Chairman, we feel a little more optimistic about our area. Having been burned as badly as we were, we don't want to overstate that. We are coming from a fairly low figure but people really are feeling better.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""Until fairly recently, I was thinking that the risks were clearly on the side of more inflation. I think the risks are more even than they were. The most likely outcome is a period of slow growth with inflation higher than we would like but not accelerating significantly. But if we're wrong, I think we have about as much chance of being wrong on the inflation side as on the too-slow-growth side. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boykin. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""And they feel that they'll get this voluntary restraint package on steel renewed in Congress, so they released some projects that they were holding.On the whole, I think capital spending is definitely slower now than it was three months ago.As for the future in the District, I think the outlook is for flat to slow growth with unemployment rates still on the low side.As far as the nation, I think what's happening is about as good as we could hope for.We ought to be reasonably pleased with what we're seeing on the growth profile.My sense is that the risks between recession and inflation have shifted.Until fairly recently, I was thinking that the risks were clearly on the side of more inflation.I think the risks are more even than they were.The most likely outcome is a period of slow growth with inflation higher than we would like but not accelerating significantly.But if we're wrong, I think we have about as much chance of being wrong on the inflation side as on the too-slow-growth side.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boykin.'}]",yes,,,,
527,531,19890706_261_4,MR. JOHNSON.,"""What would that do to M2 growth or to the M2 money demand I guess is the way to put it?""","Don, I need a review; you may have mentioned it but go over it one more time. One of my concerns is that if we are beginning a period of declining interest rates, clearly, we're going to see behavior in velocity symmetric to the increase we've had over the period of rising interest rates; we're going to see a declining velocity growth. Would you review again, just as a rule of thumb, what the lags are on, say, a 100 basis point decline in interest rates? What would that do to M2 growth or to the M2 money demand I guess is the way to put it? What kind of lags are there before they catch up?","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""It's about half and half. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""That's what I think. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'Yes. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'So, there are no systematic indications. Other questions for Mr. Kohn? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""Therefore, as I said, my concern is how we are going to make it through the next couple of quarters before we see some of the monetary changes work through, because I think the very slow monetary aggregate growth that we have had is having an impact and, unfortunately, that it is going to continue to have an impact for a while.Thank you very much; I hope we're lucky.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""If there are no further items on this general tour de table, why don't we adjourn until 9:00 a.m. tomorrow morning?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""We are now up to Mr. Kohn's presentation on the long-term ranges.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.]'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Quick question, Don: Of the 8 to 10 revisions, is there any systematic directional change in those?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""I don't think so.Remember one year we lowered the bottom end of the M2 range; that was in 1988.Other years we have widened the range.I'm sorry, Mr. Chairman, I'm looking for--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Actually, Norm has given me a table.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""It's the table I'm looking for but am having trouble finding.It's about half and half.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""That's what I think.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'So, there are no systematic indications.Other questions for Mr. Kohn?'}]",no,,,,
528,532,19890706_378_2,MR. KOHN.,"""Particularly if I take out the demand deposit component, which has had its own special influences with the compensating balances and whatnot, M2 is running stronger than we projected at the last meeting, and that's consistent with a slightly lower interest rate and a bounceback.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""Now, it clearly looks like an overshoot to me of where we want to be; but I'm simply saying that's where the market is. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""One sense of where this yield curve is you can see on Chart I of the financial indicators that I have; it's really a minus, as of Friday of last week. But you can see that we have had some upward slopes in yield curves, at least measured this way, that are larger than the downward-- ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Any further questions for Mr. Kohn? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': 'Don, are there any reasons why you may be more or less confident about the path of M2 over the next 6 months than usual? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'It varies with the level of rates, Governor Johnson, because you have to make some estimate for a marginal state tax rate--since bills are exempt from state taxes--as well as the coupon equivalent kind of [adjustment].'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""Sure.What I'm saying--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'And the mechanical translation of 7-3/4 percent [on the bill rate] is about 8-3/4 percent [on the funds rate].'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""Yes, I think that's about right.I'm saying that's what the bill market has built in.Now, it clearly looks like an overshoot to me of where we want to be; but I'm simply saying that's where the market is.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""One sense of where this yield curve is you can see on Chart I of the financial indicators that I have; it's really a minus, as of Friday of last week.But you can see that we have had some upward slopes in yield curves, at least measured this way, that are larger than the downward--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Any further questions for Mr. Kohn?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': 'Don, are there any reasons why you may be more or less confident about the path of M2 over the next 6 months than usual?'}]",no,,,,
529,533,19890706_456_2,MR. ANGELL.,"""But I did want [others] to be aware of the fact that some of that is a one-time deal and will not necessarily follow through.""","I'm aware of those technical changes and that's why I have such a low forecast for the CPI in the second half. But I did want [others] to be aware of the fact that some of that is a one-time deal and will not necessarily follow through. But the work that Peter Von zur Muehlen has been doing--and he will have a working paper for the American Ag-Econ Association and the U.S. Department of Agriculture meeting in Baton Rouge, Florida later this month--has shown that these smooth commodity prices have been very significant in regard to forecasting changes or peaks in the CPI. And that's what I guess I'm staking my reputation on that the CPI will respond.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'As I recall, it was not small. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': ""No. We're expecting that to take about 4 cents a gallon off gasoline prices by the September-October period. So there's about a 4 percent decline just from that as well as some weakening in gasoline margins over and above that. Once that's in place, we're expecting CPI prices to be [rising] 0.2 to 0.3 percent for the summer months of July, August, and September. And for the PPI [we expect a] zero to 0.1 percent rise for a few months in late summer, early fall. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""As you can see, those smooth rates of change have had a very flat top on them; so I've been hesitant to call what I would say is a forecast of a downturn in the CPI year-over-year rate of change.But unless I'm totally wrong, the CPI year-over-year rates of change between now and October are going to be declining.And it's encompassing that that would permit me to want to--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""There's a technical reason for that; the gasoline price we know is coming down and we have that refinery adjustment problem, which the seasonal does not pick up.Mike, what is that worth in the PPI?As I recall, it was not small.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': ""No. We're expecting that to take about 4 cents a gallon off gasoline prices by the September-October period.So there's about a 4 percent decline just from that as well as some weakening in gasoline margins over and above that.Once that's in place, we're expecting CPI prices to be [rising] 0.2 to 0.3 percent for the summer months of July, August, and September.And for the PPI [we expect a] zero to 0.1 percent rise for a few months in late summer, early fall.""}]",yes,no,,,
530,534,19891003_326_5,VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.,"""But let me take up a further [unintelligible] in terms of the intermediate-term outlook.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""They are not economic in many cases; but in virtually every case they are substantially impacted by economic events and economic conditions. As I look at the economy, I'm close to where I think Governor Johnson and President Black and others are in that it's hard for me to see where meaningful strength can come from and relatively easy to see where weakness can come from. And that gives me some pause. I would suggest that we ought to be rather sensitive to emerging weakness and be quite careful that we don't induce something through policy that would turn out to be counterproductive to society in a larger sense. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Jeremiah Corrigan! '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I have adopted a self-imposed task of delivering jeremiads from time-to-time about things that are going on that are somewhat outside the economy and present a backdrop against which we need to apply policy.I'm not going to repeat that this morning, but I would just like to get on the table the fact that there are a host of very important challenges and problems in the economy that are very urgent and on which, in many cases, we seem to have an opportunity to make some substantial progress.They are not economic in many cases; but in virtually every case they are substantially impacted by economic events and economic conditions.As I look at the economy, I'm close to where I think Governor Johnson and President Black and others are in that it's hard for me to see where meaningful strength can come from and relatively easy to see where weakness can come from.And that gives me some pause.I would suggest that we ought to be rather sensitive to emerging weakness and be quite careful that we don't induce something through policy that would turn out to be counterproductive to society in a larger sense.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Jeremiah Corrigan!'}]",no,,,,
531,535,19891219_231_2,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""Actually, we may want to combine a couple of them.""","I'd like to put on the table now some specific questions relating to our [unintelligible]. Actually, we may want to combine a couple of them. I'll just read them and put them out on the table as an extension of what we have been doing: Do the Committee members believe that there are significant advantages in targeting stability in the general price level as opposed to seeking to establish a steady low rate of inflation? This has come up several times but has not been fully addressed. Combining with that: Is a precise timetable for moving to the ultimate objective important either as a self discipline or for expectational reasons or would it be sufficient simply to focus on maintaining progress in the disinflationary direction? These are essentially the questions that Governor Kelley raised early on and they really are quite relevant to how we move from our general analytical view of the immediate period to something somewhat more closely related to policy initiatives. Who would like to start us off?","[{'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""I don't know; I'm asking. Is there a reason empirically or theoretically to believe that relative prices of goods and services are more predictable in a price level stability environment versus an inflation rate stability environment? ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Let me stop you right there. The general question that you raised is really the next topic that we will address after coffee. So, let's take a 15 minute break and [return]. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""In theory, I think if you assume that people could always anticipate inflation growing at a specific rate I'm not sure the cost of pegging the inflation rate is that much greater than the cost of stabilizing the price level.But I don't believe you can do that this way; I'm not sure you could stabilize the inflation rate.But the fact is that if people could always be assured that prices were going to grow at 4 percent, they could take that into account just like a stable price level.The question I have is: Are relative prices somehow better behaved in a stable price level environment than they are in a stable inflation rate environment?I don't know; I'm asking.Is there a reason empirically or theoretically to believe that relative prices of goods and services are more predictable in a price level stability environment versus an inflation rate stability environment?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Let me stop you right there.The general question that you raised is really the next topic that we will address after coffee.So, let's take a 15 minute break and [return].""}]",yes,no,,,
532,536,19891219_561_1,MR. PRELL.,"""But in a sense we don't have any real sacrifice occurring until we get out into 1991.""",But in a sense we don't have any real sacrifice occurring until we get out into 1991.,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Basically, next year's CPI probably would not be materially above 4 percent and might even be a shade below. Looking out into 1991 it probably would be at 4 percent or a shade below. So that might give you a little sense of movement toward a lower inflation projection. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Johnson. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'Sounds like a heck of a sacrifice ratio to me. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""A couple of other factors affecting the contour are the oil price assumption and the dollar assumption.Oil prices in the near term are a helpful element in the picture, but as time progresses and we get into 1991 our assumption of no real change in the oil price begins to become a neutral factor as opposed to a helpful factor in the inflation trend.Finally--and this is sort of what we demonstrated in the exhibits yesterday--the autonomous depreciation of the dollar, so to speak, does have some effect on that short-run trade-off.If you took out the dollar depreciation that we have, the picture would be much more favorable in terms of the apparent trend.Basically, next year's CPI probably would not be materially above 4 percent and might even be a shade below.Looking out into 1991 it probably would be at 4 percent or a shade below.So that might give you a little sense of movement toward a lower inflation projection.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Johnson.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'Sounds like a heck of a sacrifice ratio to me.'}]",yes,no,,,
533,537,19891219_660_13,MR. HOSKINS.,"""I expect variations quarter-by-quarter.""","For the first three quarters of the year the District really did quite well, as I have reported to you all along. Since that time it has slowed but it's not shrinking at all with the exception, of course, of auto-related activities and some construction-related activities. There hasn't been a major downturn in any of the industries to the extent that it has caused people to say: ""We have a major problem on our hands."" Services continue to grow in our District. By cities, Cincinnati has relatively strong growth; Columbus is probably next in line; Cleveland is close to being flat; and Pittsburg is flat. Now, just so that you don't think I have reported this District as being extra strong in order to influence [others toward] my policy position, I had a witness at our last board meeting to hear all the branch directors speak. That witness was the Chairman. I think one might categorize their statements as rather sanguine about the outlook. So, the District may be somewhat peculiar in the sense that to the business community things may seem to be softening a little but not sufficiently to generate major concerns for them. In terms of the national outlook, I think Mike's guess is as good as anyone else's with respect to the course of the economy and I don't really have any major disagreements with it. My only concern is that we may focus overly on a particular quarterly change. I think that the economy needs room to make those kinds of changes before we do something with respect to policy. I expect variations quarter-by-quarter.","[{'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""But with FIRREA extending that to S&Ls, it has become a big problem for contractors to get financing--at least the same way they used to get it. So, there are a lot of things going on out there that in my judgment indicate that the risks--for sure for the next two quarters--are on the low side, the down side. I hope I'm wrong, but those are my concerns. Thank you. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoskins. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""Also, I pick up more and more comments about the fragility of the financial system, particularly from business people--people who are not in a commercial bank or an S&L, but who just seem generally nervous about what's going on.And as Dick Syron said, there are more and more suggestions that this ultimately is going to impact the availability of credit, particularly for people who don't have a blue chip credit rating.I was at a real estate conference out in balmy California a couple of weeks ago and there was substantial discussion there of the problems coming from the FIRREA legislation and what it's doing in the way of imposing lending limits on S&Ls.The banks for some time have had limits on the size of loans that can be made to one borrower.But with FIRREA extending that to S&Ls, it has become a big problem for contractors to get financing--at least the same way they used to get it.So, there are a lot of things going on out there that in my judgment indicate that the risks--for sure for the next two quarters--are on the low side, the down side.I hope I'm wrong, but those are my concerns.Thank you.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoskins.'}]",yes,no,,,
534,538,19891219_807_1,MR. BOEHNE.,"""Mr. Chairman, I have no problem with what Governor Angell suggested.""","Mr. Chairman, I have no problem with what Governor Angell suggested. I do caution you, however, that if you want to make this an official vote, that official vote is going to be in the record. I just wonder if this is the sort of thing that we want to have a record of dissents.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I would say that-- '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I just wanted to make sure that that's [clear]. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Jerry, do you support moving the monetary aggregates [phrase]? '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'Yes. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""In terms of people's first preferences, the way I counted it you had a 10 to 8 vote among the group as a whole.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""You're talking about the voting members?""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'No, the 18 participants.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""And in terms of whether we ease policy now or don't, there were several people whose first preference was not to ease but who said they could agree with easing now.So I'm not sure that the blanket is as all encompassing as your early comment would suggest.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'No, I think the blanket is that all of us are within the position of unchanged to slight ease, not on the slight ease.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""Well, that's the point I wanted to emphasize.Leaving aside the specific language here, I think the staff should make sure that the policy record is consistent with that view because I would not want to associate myself with anything that had any connotation of a rush to a further easing of monetary policy.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Oh no, on the contrary.I would say that--'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I just wanted to make sure that that's [clear].""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Jerry, do you support moving the monetary aggregates[phrase]?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'Yes.'}]",yes,yes,-5 sentences,ambiguous,
535,539,19900207_99_8,MR. KELLEY.,"""I don't know what has happened to this corner over here, Mr. Chairman.""","Well, Mr. Chairman, let me put on the table something that I know everyone here is very aware of but that I don't think has been explicitly mentioned yet, and that is that we are living in a time right now of really incredible, momentous events in the world. I won't try to run the litany and I don't want to be too dramatic. But I think we may very well be in a time where there is a sea change going on that happens rarely in history. I think it's very, very important that we have a reasonably comfortable economy for the Administration to operate in, given this environment and this geopolitical era that we're in. And I think so far we have it. As I listen to the reports and read the statistics and read the Beigebook, indeed, I think the forecast that we all seem to share quite closely is satisfactory and meets that criterion. But I also share a lot of the concerns that the two gentlemen on my left and right mentioned when they spoke. I don't know what has happened to this corner over here, Mr. Chairman. Maybe you should separate us! But I share the concerns about what could happen and I think it's very, very important that we keep a weather eye out, particularly in the kind of environment that we share right now in the world. As far as monetary policy goes, I agree with everyone else here that it's essential first of all that we not allow [inflation] to increase, and indeed that we knock it down and make some progress toward stable prices over time. Hopefully, we're doing that right now and can do it this year. But I must say that, in economic terms, I don't think it's terribly shabby that we're holding [inflation] steady in the strong economy that we have had over the last couple of years, coming off of the kind of history that we've had over the course of the last ten years. In historical terms and in political terms--political in the big good sense of the word political--I think maybe we should be willing to accept some risk that this is the best we can do right here rather than be too terribly macho in the direction of trying to knock inflation down very rapidly at considerable risk to some other issues that may be larger.","[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""So, I'm not expecting as much gain in the CPI because at this point in time I consider the greatest danger to this sustained expansion is through a financial problem for the dollar, and I'm not as optimistic about the dollar as I have been in previous years. Of course, my optimism about the dollar last year was that the dollar would be pretty stable and I think it behaved that way. I think that's our razor's edge; if something happens there, that could upset things. So, under the assumption that we're not going to cut the fed funds rate 25 basis points and drive long bonds up another 50 basis points, I think there's a reasonable chance that that will be okay. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""Consequently, I think we're not as vulnerable to downturn forces because, as Bob Boykin mentioned, in Texas energy is actually in a recovery mode and agriculture and agricultural machinery are in similar recovery modes.My forecast is for a much brighter picture except for the CPI; I only have the CPI down 1 percentage point from this year's level.So, I'm not expecting as much gain in the CPI because at this point in time I consider the greatest danger to this sustained expansion is through a financial problem for the dollar, and I'm not as optimistic about the dollar as I have been in previous years.Of course, my optimism about the dollar last year was that the dollar would be pretty stable and I think it behaved that way.I think that's our razor's edge; if something happens there, that could upset things.So, under the assumption that we're not going to cut the fed funds rate 25 basis points and drive long bonds up another 50 basis points, I think there's a reasonable chance that that will be okay.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley.'}]",no,,,,
536,540,19900327_115_2,MR. PRELL.,"""I hope everyone--""",That's by design of course. I hope everyone--,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""[Unintelligible] the context of import prices turning upward, thus relieving a bit of the competitive pressure. So it all seems to fit together in this direction. We've raised [our forecast of] prices ex food and energy this year; they change Q4 to Q4 by .2 percent, a fairly modest change. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': ""The second question I have is that I'm rather struck by the change in the [unintelligible] of the Greenbook. Over the next two years where you come out at the [end] is not terribly different from what you had last month. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Indeed, we've lowered our forecast of the ex food and energy CPI increase for the second quarter from what we previously had.But the cumulative effect of the last few months of data in this overall category--even though there are special things like transit charges and other items that seem to be one-time events--has been that the trend is a little higher.It just seems to fit with the general circumstances of overall spending being stronger--knowing that that profit margin pressure was there, which businesses presumably would like to relieve to some degree.[Unintelligible] the context of import prices turning upward, thus relieving a bit of the competitive pressure.So it all seems to fit together in this direction.We've raised [our forecast of] prices ex food and energy this year; they change Q4 to Q4 by .2 percent, a fairly modest change.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': ""The second question I have is that I'm rather struck by the change in the [unintelligible] of the Greenbook.Over the next two years where you come out at the [end] is not terribly different from what you had last month.""}]",yes,,,,
537,541,19901113_6_3,MR. HOSKINS.,"""Sam, I didn't catch what you said in terms of our exposure now and where our ceiling is.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""I'll move. ""}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Second. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'No objections. Mr. Cross, foreign currency operations, please. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.] '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Would somebody like to move approval of the minutes?'}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""I'll move.""}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Second.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'No objections.Mr. Cross, foreign currency operations, please.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.]'}]",no,,,,
538,542,19910206_54_6,MR. ANGELL.,"""If the Congress feels comfortable with the arrangement, I'm certainly on board in this context.""","Mr. Chairman, for two years I was rather uncomfortable with this position. I am not uncomfortable with this $10 billion request. I feel that the Treasury was rather generous in moving in this direction, [based on] the Federal Open Market Committee's objections. It seems to me that they gave heed to the size of the fund, which was one basis for the objections. The second area that I was objecting to as a matter of principle is no longer valid in that we did call to the attention of the Congress [issues] about the appropriations process. If the Congress feels comfortable with the arrangement, I'm certainly on board in this context.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""It will take a while, but I think we're moving in the right direction. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': ""We've made clear to the Treasury many, many times that we don't visualize this as a facility that should be in continuous use. It's there when conditions are such that it's required and it should be drawn down, or reversed, at times when conditions warrant. That's the basis we've been working on and the basis on which it has been reduced to $4-1/2 billion in recent months. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Angell. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. SIEGMAN.', 'text': ""Otherwise, we'd have to review this on an emergency basis rather than--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': ""Any action to change this does get reported.If we leave it at $10 billion, that's outstanding until we choose to act otherwise or we look at it again next year.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I think we're still in the mode of trying to reduce our holdings [of foreign currencies] and that will continue.We have communicated that periodically to the Treasury, and I think we are just going to bring down gradually what we all think is an excessive position in this respect.It will take a while, but I think we're moving in the right direction.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': ""We've made clear to the Treasury many, many times that we don't visualize this as a facility that should be in continuous use.It's there when conditions are such that it's required and it should be drawn down, or reversed, at times when conditions warrant.That's the basis we've been working on and the basis on which it has been reduced to $4-1/2 billion in recent months.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Angell.'}]",yes,no,,,
539,543,19910206_236_13,MR. PARRY.,"""I have two interesting vignettes about the effect of the war on the economy, who is a very large retailer with stores predominantly in the West but also on the East Coast.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""But it's an environment of decelerating prices because we're above the natural rate. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Any further questions? If not, why don't we take a coffee break and come back and do the tour de table. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Who would like to start the round table? Bob. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""In some sense it helps that we've started above the assumed natural rate so that you can push the economy for a little while.It's a bit like Mike's alternative simulation.Inflation takes a while to begin picking up because we don't drop below the natural rate for a time.So, in some sense this was a favorable starting point for a more expansive policy.But you'll note that when we get out to 1995 finally, we do have lower growth in output; it's a little higher level of output and we do have a soaring inflation.At some point, presumably, the Fed would have to [rein that inflation] in.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""And the same point is made simply in our Greenbook forecast: in essence that over the next seven quarters after this one the economy is growing at a rate clearly above our estimate.But it's an environment of decelerating prices because we're above the natural rate.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Any further questions?If not, why don't we take a coffee break and come back and do the tour de table.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Who would like to start the round table?Bob.'}]",no,,,,
540,544,19910703_213_1,MR. KOHN.,"""No, I guess I wouldn't.""","No, I guess I wouldn't. I think the widening of the ranges reflected two things. One is the increased interest elasticity of M2. So, working as we do with interest rates and nominal GNP, and feeding that back through M2, a mistake on the interest rate/nominal GNP spending side means that the Committee would tend to push interest rates higher or lower and, because M2 is more interest sensitive now than it used to be over short periods of time, we can get quite a substantial response in M2 to get the same nominal GNP with the same inflation outcome in the short run, cyclically. The other point would be that, if anything, I'm a little more uncertain about the relationship of M2 to nominal GNP now than I was two or three years ago when I thought we had a very good handle on it--at least it looked like--over four [to] six quarters. Now I'm less sure. So, the fact that we came out near the midpoint of the ranges the last few years is almost a coincidence, involving offsetting surprises to some extent. I know, for example, that last year, 1990, we expected money growth--and I think the Committee didn't disagree with this--near the upper part of the range by the end of the year. And it fell way off. So, I think there's at least as much uncertainty about those relationships now as there was when the Committee widened its ranges.","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': ""I just had one other question, not on that subject. At one point we widened the bands on M2 and the [other] aggregates because we thought there was significant volatility. As I look at the numbers over the last four years, we've been within a 1/2 point or so of the midpoint of the range on a fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter basis. So, it seems to me that maybe we don't have the same degree of uncertainty about where we're going to come out. I guess I'm asking you: Would you be comfortable with a narrower range, given our experience of the past? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""If I may take the liberty of retranslating your question: Our forecasts are based on a path for nominal interest rates and they relate that to spending and through that to output, employment, and inflation; and another way of putting your question is whether over 5 or 10 years I would have as much or a little more faith in a money/nominal GNP relation than I would in a nominal interest rate/GNP relation.I think as we practice policy we end up looking at both of those and at a number of collateral pieces of information to try to interpret the interest and exchange rates--with money being an important piece of collateral information.But we'd be hard pressed to put entire reliance on one or another set of these things.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': ""I just had one other question, not on that subject.At one point we widened the bands on M2 and the [other] aggregates because we thought there was significant volatility.As I look at the numbers over the last four years, we've been within a 1/2 point or so of the midpoint of the range on a fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter basis.So, it seems to me that maybe we don't have the same degree of uncertainty about where we're going to come out.I guess I'm asking you: Would you be comfortable with a narrower range, given our experience of the past?""}]",yes,yes,utterance,ambiguous,
541,545,19920205_258_4,MR. HENDRICKS.,"""But we really don't know how long it will take or how big it will be.""",,"[{'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Good question. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""I don't know about the politics of that, Alan, but that's something we ought to think about in terms of the longer-term influence of monetary policy--possibly reducing reserve requirements and spreading them more broadly over broader classes of deposits. ""}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': ""That's a good idea. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""We have a letter from Chairman Neil on that issue and I'm sure you'll be asked to address it at your Humphrey-Hawkins testimony. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'First Vice President Hendricks. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""Now, if we get into the upper end under different circumstances where M1 is much more controlled and some of those other components are growing, that's a different story.Anyway, I would urge that we not lose sight of those [measures]; I think we need to pay attention to them.I wouldn't advocate a target but we may even be at a point in time when we would want to monitor consciously or explicitly the behavior of a narrower [measure] that reflects the thrust of our objectives.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Would you and Si be supportive of proposing reserves across the board on the M2 components?'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Good question.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""I don't know about the politics of that, Alan, but that's something we ought to think about in terms of the longer-term influence of monetary policy--possibly reducing reserve requirements and spreading them more broadly over broader classes of deposits.""}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': ""That's a good idea.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""We have a letter from Chairman Neil on that issue and I'm sure you'll be asked to address it at your Humphrey-Hawkins testimony.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'First Vice President Hendricks.'}]",no,,,,
542,546,19920331_77_1,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""I don't think Peter is recommending that we--""",I don't think Peter is recommending that we--,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The purpose then was to increase the liquidity of the portfolio for fear that it might not have been adequate in the event of some really significant problems with some of the larger banks? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'Right. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'That refunding action itself has no effect on the maturity of the debt held by the public because our allotment is just an ""add on"" to Treasury auctions. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""My point, Alan, was that there's probably no problem doing what [Peter is] suggesting, but it's probably better for us if it's just done quietly than if for some reason what we do attracts publicity. That's my point. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""That particular statistic on the average maturity is very dependent on how we handle not so much our market purchases but our rollovers and quarterly refundings.We've tilted those quite strongly toward the short options.That was what we had outlined as a plan to the Committee in the mid-1980s, following the discussions that Don alluded to.And by virtue of steering our holdings very strongly toward the three-year option each time, that has tended to work, just as a factor in itself, to bring down that average maturity.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The purpose then was to increase the liquidity of the portfolio for fear that it might not have been adequate in the event of some really significant problems with some of the larger banks?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'Right.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'That refunding action itself has no effect on the maturity of the debt held by the public because our allotment is just an ""add on"" to Treasury auctions.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""My point, Alan, was that there's probably no problem doing what [Peter is] suggesting, but it's probably better for us if it's just done quietly than if for some reason what we do attracts publicity.That's my point.""}]",yes,,,,
543,547,19920818_76_7,MR. STOCKTON.,"""There was talk then that the trend had improved to maybe 2 percent or in excess of 2 percent and it turned out to be a disappointment that as we progressed through the decade we didn't see that kind of improvement.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Is there a tendency that that 1 percent might be higher? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': ""On trend productivity? Yes, that's certainly a possibility, although currently when we're coming out of the business cycle trough-- ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'We are? [Laughter] '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""If we were to fall short of that by a percentage point, the Okun's law relation would add only a touch to the unemployment rate.So, it gets back to what Dave has been emphasizing in terms of these uncertainties about the labor market relationship per se: What is happening with productivity and what is happening with labor market participation?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': ""Dave, while we're on this: What is your estimate of potential growth in the economy these days and how do you parcel that out?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': ""At this point our estimate of potential would be 2 percent with roughly 1 percent in trend productivity and a 1 percent increase in labor input.That's a tad lower than where we were before we saw all the [unintelligible] revisions, which revised output growth down.So, we're just a little below.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Is there a tendency that that 1 percent might be higher?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': ""On trend productivity?Yes, that's certainly a possibility, although currently when we're coming out of the business cycle trough--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'We are?[Laughter]'}]",no,,,,
544,548,19921117_423_11,MR. KELLEY.,"""The essential part--the best public policy part--I think is most closely associated with the issue of the deliberative process.""","Mr. Chairman, the day is getting on here and it's just about all been said, I'm sure, but let me try to make one thing explicit that I think has been implicit in much of what has run through [the discussion]. What is in the public interest? That's what we're talking about. I think there are two components of that. We have two public interest objectives here, but they're not of equal weight. One public interest objective is the best possible public policy. That's essential and that can't be compromised. The other public policy interest is that there be timely disclosure; that's one of the basics of the political process of the country. That's desirable. The one is essential; the other is desirable when it does not compromise that which is essential. The essential part--the best public policy part--I think is most closely associated with the issue of the deliberative process. In my view, that's what we have to protect at virtually any cost. The desirable public interest part is more closely associated with the timeliness issue. So, it seems to me that we might be able to take a look and do some careful thinking about meeting that desirable public policy objective of disclosure a little more fully than we have today. But I would not want to do anything that would impinge upon the essential part of this, which is the creation of public policy in a deliberative manner. So, what we might do, Mr. Chairman, on another occasion with a little more time and maybe a staff paper to go into it, is to take a look at the alternatives that would speak to timeliness but be prepared to take a very hard line on anything that impinged upon deliberativeness.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': ""And it's not really just one Congressman. To a large extent it is one staffer resurrected from that era in which this was an issue. So, I think the right approach to take is to try to figure out what is best and not try to respond to pressure. My view is that the current process works well. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': ""When we move the fed funds rate, it ends up on the financial pages; when we move the discount rate, it ends up on the front pages.I agree with Governor Angell that we ought to keep our options open.I would like to see more flexibility in the federal funds rate.I don't know exactly why it is that making an announcement would reduce the frequency[of such actions], but I feel the evidence is pretty clear that it would.So, my sense is that the process works pretty well.We have a pretty good record of accountability, and I think that's why we receive so little criticism and why this has not been coming up as a big issue.And it's not really just one Congressman.To a large extent it is one staffer resurrected from that era in which this was an issue.So, I think the right approach to take is to try to figure out what is best and not try to respond to pressure.My view is that the current process works well.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley.'}]",yes,no,,,
545,549,19930323_170_3,MR. BOEHNE.,"""While we need to be vigilant on inflation and avoid the mistakes of the past, we also need to look at the fundamentals when statistics are mixed.""","I think we have moderate, not robust, growth. We still have structural drags on the economy in the financial system; we have slack in labor markets and subdued labor costs; and we're facing a restrictive fiscal policy. While we need to be vigilant on inflation and avoid the mistakes of the past, we also need to look at the fundamentals when statistics are mixed. And I think the fundamentals still point toward an outlook of moderate growth and slowly declining unemployment and a still fairly persuasive case that inflationary pressures are likely to be held in check. When I add all these up, I come out with a constant monetary policy at this point, and I have a strong preference for keeping an even hand regarding what our next move might be.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MCTEER.', 'text': 'I was moved by the Mullins-Angell argument. I didn\'t expect us to be seriously considering tightening because of accelerating inflation, and that argument did make an impression on me. But for the time being I would prefer to follow Governor LaWare\'s admonition to remain on red alert in that regard. So, I support ""B"" symmetric with the alternative paragraph. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': ""Having said that, I'll fully admit that that story is going to be way too old if the price numbers keep going up and we keep saying that it can't happen in the analytical framework we have.But I think it would be premature to move at this stage.I also would prefer the alternative language.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President McTeer.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MCTEER.', 'text': 'I agree with Bob Forrestal\'s desire for symmetric vigilance.Maybe another way of putting it is that we now have a policy equivalent of a kinked demand curve.We\'re not necessarily happy with the price that we have--that is, the fed funds rate--but there are great disadvantages in moving it in either direction.So, we\'re sort of stuck with it for a while.I was moved by the Mullins-Angell argument.I didn\'t expect us to be seriously considering tightening because of accelerating inflation, and that argument did make an impression on me.But for the time being I would prefer to follow Governor LaWare\'s admonition to remain on red alert in that regard.So, I support ""B"" symmetric with the alternative paragraph.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
546,550,19930518_13_1,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""And thank you very much, indeed.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'But I think the type of data systems that you set up for an evaluation will enable us to continue until we can fundamentally come to grips with a view that presumably for us [fed funds] continue as our optimum operating policy procedure. Questions for President Broaddus? [Hearing none,] I guess everybody has read the two books and all the questions have been answered! '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman, for the opportunity to summarize the study. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': ""I'd be happy to try to answer any questions anybody has and I'm sure Marvin and Dave could help me with some of the more technical ones.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I must say I didn\'t have a chance to read the fat books but I did read the summary, and it really is useful in segregating the various types of problems that confront us.I\'m not saying that I feel overly encouraged about different means that we could employ other than what we are doing.I guess we all hope that somewhere down the line we\'re going to be able to deviate from ""funds only,"" if I may put it that way, as a policy.But I think the type of data systems that you set up for an evaluation will enable us to continue until we can fundamentally come to grips with a view that presumably for us[fed funds] continue as our optimum operating policy procedure.Questions for President Broaddus?[Hearing none,] I guess everybody has read the two books and all the questions have been answered!'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman, for the opportunity to summarize the study.'}]",no,,,,
547,551,19930707_121_1,MR. KELLEY.,"""I'm glad you asked!""",I'm glad you asked!,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Thank you. May I just ask for a clarification on Chart 9, showing automotive products as a share of domestic absorption? That includes parts and that's the reason why the numbers are-- ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'That includes the measure for parts excluding tires. We figured that was what people counted too much! '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MCDONOUGH.', 'text': ""From what we can see of the more speculative players, they find the yen situation sufficiently confusing that they'd rather go and play somewhere else where they can figure out the odds better.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'So, a weak government is pretty much built into the market right now?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'Yes.The market assumes the weak coalition.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'If that happens, it means the market could remain unchanged or go in the other direction.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Any further questions?If not, would somebody like to move to ratify the transactions undertaken since the last meeting?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': 'So moved.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Is there a second?'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Second.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Without objection.Let's move now to the Domestic Desk and Joan Lovett.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. LOVETT.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Chairman.[Statement--see Appendix.]'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Messrs. Prell and Truman.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Chairman.We\'ve distributed to all of you a package of charts labeled ""Staff Presentation to the FOMC.""[Statements--see Appendix.]'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Thank you.May I just ask for a clarification on Chart 9, showing automotive products as a share of domestic absorption?That includes parts and that's the reason why the numbers are--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'That includes the measure for parts excluding tires.We figured that was what people counted too much!'}]",no,,,,
548,552,19930921_57_2,MR. PRELL.,"""One is that, as we are gauging it now, we believe that a reasonable estimate of potential output growth at this time is perhaps a shade below 2-1/2 percent.""","Okay, let me address a couple of things very briefly. One is that, as we are gauging it now, we believe that a reasonable estimate of potential output growth at this time is perhaps a shade below 2-1/2 percent. So, it's very close to the growth rate of output that we are projecting. If that is so, then all other things equal, one would expect the unemployment rate to be reasonably stable. There are short-run uncertainties about labor force participation. If it remained on the weak side, then one might anticipate a lower unemployment rate. If it rejuvenated suddenly, the unemployment rate could easily go higher. I'd say, looking at various models, that there is a very slight upside risk on unemployment. As for the inflation forecast, basically we've had about 3-1/4 percent over the past year for the core CPI. We see it edging down to just under 3 percent over the next year or so. This is not out of line with various models we look at. Some of them would give more deceleration and some less. It is a bit less favorable than we had been hoping a year ago, say, or at least at the beginning of this year. We remain concerned that there is a certain momentum here that is supplied by expectations, which still have not adjusted downward among households, that appear to be in the 3 percent area. We think part of the disinflation process will be a gradual adaptation of expectations to that kind of inflation; but in the near term it tends to keep wage increases a little higher than they would otherwise be. We think we're in a reasonable middle ground, given the uncertainties that we feel. Based on the experience of the past year or so, we think it would be a little aggressive at this point to lower that forecast further.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'Right. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""And you had included an upward revision of the growth in trend productivity and higher potential output as well. If one looks at the growth rates, the real growth rates appear to be roughly equal to or in some cases below the growth rate of potential. Why is there such small progress made in the inflation area? I think you mentioned health care, gasoline taxes, etc., but it seems to me as though it's surprisingly small progress. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'If you believe that rates might [move] as the model is suggesting, is that quick enough for you?Would you rather accelerate the process by cutting rates further, knowing that ultimately you probably are going to have to reverse course more dramatically down the road in order to move real rate levels to something that is more appropriate in terms of the longer-run equilibrium?But a small adjustment, in terms of this model, is going to be essentially meaningless.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'Thank you.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""There is a rather slow decline in the unemployment rate in the Greenbook forecast and there's no decline from where we are now.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'Right.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""And you had included an upward revision of the growth in trend productivity and higher potential output as well.If one looks at the growth rates, the real growth rates appear to be roughly equal to or in some cases below the growth rate of potential.Why is there such small progress made in the inflation area?I think you mentioned health care, gasoline taxes, etc., but it seems to me as though it's surprisingly small progress.""}]",yes,yes,,,
549,553,19931116_839_15,MR. KELLEY.,"""Interestingly enough, the way I heard it--others who were there may have heard it differently--they were almost unanimous in seeing the risks on the down side, not the up side, for whatever that's worth.""","Well, Mr. Chairman, I'm about where I've been for some months now. I see very little evidence of an important change. My definition of that in my lexicon would be a moderate growth expectation, fits and starts, a surge perhaps here in the fourth quarter but not sustainable, with a slow acceleration--in fits and starts--over time. I think there are enough positives in the forecast to sustain that growth, not the least of which would be a continued reduction in your famous head winds. In all probability all of the positives will sustain that moderate growth path. I think we have to recognize that there exist considerable restraints in that forecast that should prevent an upside breakout, [including] fiscal restraint, the further impact of new taxes, and a saving rate that is already at the bottom of its historical range. Also, restructuring continues and defense [outlays] will continue to decrease; net exports will not be helpful and may decrease or get worse as well; and intermediate and long rates have shown some spontaneous rises. I emphasize that I come out on the positive side of this, but I do think we have to recognize that there are some pretty powerful restraints out there. I'll relate one anecdote that I would share with those who weren't there. The Federal Advisory Committee was in here a week or so ago and they were asked what their forecast for the economy was. They had a very, very strong consensus at between 2-1/2 and 3 percent centering on about 2.8 percent. Just to see what it might elicit, we said: Okay if that's the consensus, think contrarian a little bit and tell us where you would see the risks to that forecast. Interestingly enough, the way I heard it--others who were there may have heard it differently--they were almost unanimous in seeing the risks on the down side, not the up side, for whatever that's worth. On inflation, I just don't see any pickup visible. Inflation is still falling on a year-over-year basis by almost every measure. We still have slack in the economy, although capacity utilization may have to come off of that list with this latest report. But certainly [we have slack] in labor markets and world activity generally and sentiment continues to be weak. So, I see no reason to look to a short-term move in that regard. In short: Steady as she goes.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': ""And, of course, we've had very little increase in the implied forward rates in the long end of the curve; much of it is intermediate. Nonetheless, when considering when to switch from accommodative to neutral I would note that the current favorable outlook for stronger growth does provide a credible environment in which to consider such a move at a time when I think many people would suggest the risks are on the up side. I will also simply say that it's worth noting that the Administration forecast is, of course, for short rates to go up above inflation next year. Thank you. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': ""So I think we ought to be sensitive to the risks associated with maintaining an accommodative stance too long, including the lost opportunity to secure lower inflation.But it does seem to me that it's relatively early in the game.The long bond rate is up 40 basis points but it seems to have stabilized and it's still 30 basis points below its level last summer after the budget deal passed.So it went way beyond the budget deal period.And, of course, we've had very little increase in the implied forward rates in the long end of the curve; much of it is intermediate.Nonetheless, when considering when to switch from accommodative to neutral I would note that the current favorable outlook for stronger growth does provide a credible environment in which to consider such a move at a time when I think many people would suggest the risks are on the up side.I will also simply say that it's worth noting that the Administration forecast is, of course, for short rates to go up above inflation next year.Thank you.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,,utterance
550,554,19931221_189_5,MR. KELLEY.,"""I certainly support your prescription.""","Mr. Chairman, this choice gets tougher and tougher. First of all, I subscribe to your prescription. Factors on all sides of this have been exceptionally well articulated this morning. And every one of them has a high level of validity, but we have to make a choice. I certainly support your prescription. Timing seems to be the issue now in all of our minds. The pace of the economy, I guess, is largely going to determine that. I am agnostic on the timing issue at this point. I could easily see it being a while, as Governor LaWare suggests; and it may need to be sooner than later. We'll just have to see. And I appreciate your desire that we all do this together. And that we will do.","[{'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': ""So I support your prescription. Having said that, I do think that before too long we ought to try to come to grips with what we mean by effective price stability. I also think we have an obligation to come to grips with some of the evidence in the work that Messrs. Stockton and Beebe presented in terms of what are the empirical benefits of further reducing inflation from modest levels. I don't think we can gloss over that question with theory. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': '[Johnson] and me in and said, in effect: ""Look, you guys have been wanting to increase rates; I\'m now telling you when you want to do it, just let me know.""Every day we looked at the markets, including the foreign exchange value of the dollar which was strong, and we found an excuse every day not to do it, so we didn\'t do anything.And that made it more difficult.So, do 50 and do it now.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': ""While I find it something of a close call, I don't think the evidence is persuasive that we should move now.So I support your prescription.Having said that, I do think that before too long we ought to try to come to grips with what we mean by effective price stability.I also think we have an obligation to come to grips with some of the evidence in the work that Messrs. Stockton and Beebe presented in terms of what are the empirical benefits of further reducing inflation from modest levels.I don't think we can gloss over that question with theory.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley.'}]",yes,yes,-200+ tokens,contradiction,-200+ tokens
551,555,19940204_422_5,MR. SYRON.,"""As Larry Lindsey said, controlling prices is a mechanism for doing that.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MS. LOVETT.', 'text': ""When the market was anticipating the move, I think most of the expectations were for 25 basis points. Some of that got built into the rate structure yesterday; I think by the time the day was over about 80 percent reflected that a 1/4 point move might occur today. This morning's numbers on the January employment situation may have moved some of that pricing back out of the market. So, certainly a move of 50 basis points would have to be reflected in the market. Since 25 basis points is not fully in there now, the next 25 basis points would clearly result in some rate back up; rates would have to adjust much more than they have. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': 'I want to make some other observations, but could I ask a question of Joan just as we are in this comment process?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Sure.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': 'And the question is, Joan: What do you think the expectations in the market will be if we are to do something?What do you think the market reaction would be to 25 basis points as compared to 50 if either were announced about an hour from now?'}, {'speaker': 'MS. LOVETT.', 'text': ""When the market was anticipating the move, I think most of the expectations were for 25 basis points.Some of that got built into the rate structure yesterday; I think by the time the day was over about 80 percent reflected that a 1/4 point move might occur today.This morning's numbers on the January employment situation may have moved some of that pricing back out of the market.So, certainly a move of 50 basis points would have to be reflected in the market.Since 25 basis points is not fully in there now, the next 25 basis points would clearly result in some rate back up; rates would have to adjust much more than they have.""}]",no,,,,
552,556,19940706_460_2,MR. LINDSEY.,"""However, I strongly, avidly am against asymmetry.""","Mr. Chairman, I agree with ""B"" for the reasons you indicated. However, I strongly, avidly am against asymmetry. My reasons are twofold. First of all, if we look at our four moves to date this year, the most efficient ones with regard to the move in the long rate relative to the move in the short rate were in May and in March, when we moved at a meeting. In fact, we had bond market rallies when we moved at a meeting. The next least efficient was in February, which was our first move, when we moved at a meeting. The most inefficient, the only one in which we actually had a bond market selloff, was in April on our surprise move--a surprise in the sense that it was not taken at an announced FOMC meeting. I don't think the market likes surprises; I think moving between meetings will buy us nothing; and it will cost us something on the long end of the market. Second, the question comes up on what data we should move. I don't think we want to move on employment reports (a) for the reason Jerry Jordan mentioned and (b) for the reasons you gave. You commented on just how inefficient and unclear the employment report data are; they are lousy in this respect. We don't know how to interpret them and we should not move on their release. With regard to moving on a price number, I have to agree with Jerry Jordan's assessment that, even though I would tend to be very concerned, I would want to wait probably for two bad numbers before I drew any certain conclusions. For example, you stated in the past that the homeownership component could move suddenly and that would bias the number. I cannot imagine a single number that would cause me to want to move between meetings, given the inefficient results we have seen to date on our past four moves. The only reason given for doing it is--your phrase was--to maintain the notion in the marketplace. Well, in fact, the marketplace isn't going to know anything about it until after the next meeting was over. And given that, based on current expectations, we probably are going to move at the August meeting--and I agree with your analysis completely--I see absolutely nothing to be gained and quite a bit to be lost, by an intermeeting move.","[{'speaker': 'MR. LAWARE.', 'text': ""I think we have to make an announcement. I don't think we really have any choice on that. I think the precedent has been set now and it would be very difficult to avoid an announcement at this particular meeting. So I think something has to go out. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Lindsey. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Yes, I am really clear on this.[Laughter] I am leaning toward the side of buying insurance on the up side, but I am a bit concerned about moving strongly one way or the other on any particular number.I think six-week intervals are enough time to look at things and see how they shape up.So, I guess I come out on the symmetric side.On the announcement side, I think we would be well off doing what President Boehne suggested.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor LaWare.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LAWARE.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, for all the reasons that you have suggested I support the recommendation for ""B."" Ordinarily, I prefer symmetric language, but in the current circumstances I think it\'s appropriate to indicate a bias on the up side, so asymmetric language is satisfactory to me.I think we have to make an announcement.I don\'t think we really have any choice on that.I think the precedent has been set now and it would be very difficult to avoid an announcement at this particular meeting.So I think something has to go out.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Lindsey.'}]",yes,yes,,contradiction,
553,557,19950201_181_11,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""It is an issue that could freeze our discussions at some point.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': '[Laughter] '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'Okay. If that is the case, then the second question I have is whether we have explored both within the Committee and with those in the Congress who are so interested in this area other ways that we could be more open. I agree that we should have a policy of openness unless it is going to interfere with our deliberative process. Have we explored other options? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': ""First of all, you mentioned that Virgil Mattingly's memo came out after the subcommittee had written its report.Did the subcommittee consider that legal memo in later deliberations and still agree to go forward with its recommendation?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLINDER.', 'text': 'Yes.Subsequent to that memo we had a conference call devoted-almost exclusively to the memoand we left the recommendation intact.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'I divide this into two questions.One is, would we want to have these tapes today if we were voting today to set up a system of taping and follow the procedure we are going to have?Would we do that today?My sense just from reading this report and from the comments here is that we would not initiate this.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'You could stipulate that.[Laughter]'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'Okay.If that is the case, then the second question I have is whether we have explored both within the Committee and with those in the Congress who are so interested in this area other ways that we could be more open.I agree that we should have a policy of openness unless it is going to interfere with our deliberative process.Have we explored other options?'}]",no,,,,
554,558,19950706_127_1,MR. JORDAN.,"""Okay, and I have absolutely no problems with that.""","Okay, and I have absolutely no problems with that. I do still have a little problem with the references to bond markets being adaptive. It's like saying: If the bond market rallies enough, we don't have to lower the funds rate, and that gives me a little problem. But let me hold that for a second. The Greenbook says: ""We have introduced a downward tilt in the funds rate. This decline in rates, though, should not be interpreted as implying any impetus to aggregate demand,"" meaning that this downward movement would equilibrate. I can read that statement to say also that because the natural Wicksellian rate or some equilibrium real rate has moved down, failure to move down the nominal rate would be a de facto more restrictive policy stance.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""In fact, what we were doing was recognizing something that I think you raised at the last meeting about how high the real short-term rate should be expected to be over the longer run and whether we felt that 3 percent, or wherever the real rate is, was the sustainable rate. I noted then that if we looked out several years that would become a relevant consideration. I said that we felt it was higher than the longer-run equilibrium or natural rate and that in prior Bluebook simulations we had introduced a downward tilt. Since we were going out a bit further with the Bluebook simulations and we were building in a somewhat more substantial fiscal consolidation, we felt that it would be appropriate for us to introduce that into this forecast. So, that's how that should be interpreted. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""In effect, it keeps things neutral as the fiscal restraint tends to lower the natural rate--the rate that would prevail when the economy was in a steady state, operating at potential.I apologize if we confused you on that score.In fact, what we were doing was recognizing something that I think you raised at the last meeting about how high the real short-term rate should be expected to be over the longer run and whether we felt that 3 percent, or wherever the real rate is, was the sustainable rate.I noted then that if we looked out several years that would become a relevant consideration.I said that we felt it was higher than the longer-run equilibrium or natural rate and that in prior Bluebook simulations we had introduced a downward tilt.Since we were going out a bit further with the Bluebook simulations and we were building in a somewhat more substantial fiscal consolidation, we felt that it would be appropriate for us to introduce that into this forecast.So, that's how that should be interpreted.""}]",yes,no,,,
555,559,19950822_34_1,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""I'm disappointed.""","I'm disappointed. We have new technologies here that enhance the economic outlook, I do believe.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': 'Second. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Without objection. Let's now move on to the economic situation. Are you going to use the big screens for your presentation? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': ""I'm not going to inaugurate the screens. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I don't think there is a newfound insight that modest intervention of a few hundred million dollars or a billion dollars or whatever can really move the market.I think the people who make the decisions at the Treasury are aware that the only way we can effectively change the exchange rate through intervention is to catch the market short against our intervention and the reaction is strictly that.By definition, we cannot continuously surprise the market; at some point, it is waiting for us to move and catch us when we move.I think there has been an element of luck here that we should put in the bank and let it draw interest and not try to spend right away.Any other questions for Peter?If not, would somebody like to move to ratify the foreign currency transactions since the last meeting?""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'So moved.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': 'Second.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Without objection.Would somebody like to move to ratify the domestic open market transactions since the last meeting?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'So moved.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': 'Second.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Without objection.Let's now move on to the economic situation.Are you going to use the big screens for your presentation?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': ""I'm not going to inaugurate the screens.""}]",yes,no,,,
556,560,19950926_225_13,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""So, if anyone would like to comment --President Parry.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'Yes Governor Lindsey Yes President Melzer Yes President Minehan Yes President Moskow Yes Governor Phillips Yes Governor Yellen Yes '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLINDER.', 'text': ""I simply want to state as a matter of principle, one that most people believe but a few have argued against, that fiscal policy is a relevant consideration in setting monetary policy.It doesn't mean that we have made our policy hostage to fiscal policy in any sense.But it is true that we don't know what the fiscal policy is going to be.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'We are reading from the same page as last time.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'It\'s on page 15 of the Bluebook: ""In the implementation of policy for the immediate future the Committee seeks to maintain the existing degree of pressure of reserve positions.In the context of the Committee\'s long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful considerable to economic, financial, and monetary developments, slightly greater reserve restraint or slightly lesser reserve restraint would be acceptable in the intermeeting period.The contemplated reserve conditions are expected to be consistent with growth in M2 and M3 over the balance of the year near the pace of recent months.""'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Call the roll.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'Chairman Greenspan Yes Vice Chairman McDonough Yes Governor BlinderYes President HoenigYes Governor KelleyYes Governor LindseyYes President MelzerYes President Minehan Yes President MoskowYes Governor PhillipsYes Governor Yellen Yes'}]",no,,,,
557,561,19960131_287_4,MR. KELLEY.,"""With the inflation outlook as good as it is for the near and intermediate terms, all of this leaves us with room to move, and I support your recommendation as an insurance policy.""","Mr. Chairman, I agree with those who feel that the economy is probably all right, but I also think that the downside risks clearly are elevated. I also believe that it is quite likely that the equilibrium federal funds rate is lower than it was earlier. Consequently, a somewhat lower rate is not inconsistent with what the Committee's goals have been all along and will continue to be. With the inflation outlook as good as it is for the near and intermediate terms, all of this leaves us with room to move, and I support your recommendation as an insurance policy.","[{'speaker': 'MS. YELLEN.', 'text': 'From that perspective, current policy is not overwhelmingly tight, but certainly a further downward adjustment of 25 basis points would still leave us well within the range of our past behavior. It would not be a major move inconsistent with what we have done before. Again, that would not represent an opportunistic approach, but one designed to bring inflation down. So, I certainly support this move. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. YELLEN.', 'text': 'I would not envision anything of that sort.But is a 25 basis point cut reasonable?It is tremendously hard to gauge whether or not it is reasonable.One thing that I found myself doing to try to get a sense of whether or not this is a move within a reasonable range is to look at that Taylor rule chart in the ""Financial Indicators"" package.What that shows is that, using Taylor\'s rule as he proposed it, we are currently at the high end of a reasonable range of values.Looking at our behavior now in terms of our own past behavior, we are well within the ballpark of our past behavior.From that perspective, current policy is not overwhelmingly tight, but certainly a further downward adjustment of 25 basis points would still leave us well within the range of our past behavior.It would not be a major move inconsistent with what we have done before.Again, that would not represent an opportunistic approach, but one designed to bring inflation down.So, I certainly support this move.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
558,562,19960521_26_3,MR. PRELL.,"""Whereas, a couple of months ago, we saw the risks that herds would be cut back, the anecdotal evidence suggests that this process is now under way.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Don't they tell you what average lead times are or can be assumed to be? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, our forecast shows an expectation of higher poultry prices showing through to the retail level more fully by the summer. By late fall or early winter, we would expect to see the higher hog prices show up as increased pork prices in grocery stores. Higher cattle prices would show up early next year. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'That is what I was going to say--that you can make an assumption. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'What is the timeframe that you assume exists between the increase in grain prices and its effects on poultry, hog, and cattle prices?I will assume that it is in that order of lead times.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'We noted in the Greenbook that we do not feel that we can pin that down with any certainty.I think we are already seeing this transmission process affecting the poultry area where producers are cutting back on their production levels, and we expect to see a price pass-through there fairly promptly.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Can't you tell from the futures prices?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'We have looked at the futures prices and--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Don't they tell you what average lead times are or can be assumed to be?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, our forecast shows an expectation of higher poultry prices showing through to the retail level more fully by the summer.By late fall or early winter, we would expect to see the higher hog prices show up as increased pork prices in grocery stores.Higher cattle prices would show up early next year.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'That is what I was going to say--that you can make an assumption.'}]",no,,,,
559,563,19960703_427_8,MR. BROADDUS.,"""A decisive move like this would tend to reduce uncertainty in financial markets and elsewhere about the ultimate extent of the tightening we might be contemplating.""","Mr. Chairman, I have not yet had the opportunity to read Governor Yellen's paper, which I look forward to doing, But not having read it, I am reluctant at this point to deemphasize what you refer to as the ""old model."" It seems to me that the information we heard yesterday suggests that the economy is currently robust, with the risks dominating on the up side rather than the down side. I think it is instructive, as was pointed out this morning, that even if the Greenbook baseline projection materializes through 1997 with no change in policy in 1996 and 1997, the Bluebook analysis still says that an upward correction of 50 basis points, maybe more, is going to be needed to contain inflation in the longer term. Moreover, in the Bluebook discussion of short-run alternatives, the point is made that if we want to tilt inflation down, we may have to raise the federal funds rate ""considerably""--I believe that is the term used--or by more than 1/4 percentage point before the end of this year. With these considerations in mind, I think the case for a tightening of policy today is a strong one. I personally believe that a solid case can be made for an increase of 50 basis points in the federal funds rate. If we were to do that, I believe there would be a credibility benefit that could be substantial. A decisive move like this would tend to reduce uncertainty in financial markets and elsewhere about the ultimate extent of the tightening we might be contemplating. We could announce that we expected a midcourse correction like this to bring the economy back to a sustainable longer-term growth path with declining inflation, and that might help to reduce the potential reaction in financial markets. I could support such a move, but I realize that that may not be an option today. In any event, I think that a move of at least 1/4 point is necessary. The key thing we need to do now is to reaffirm our disinflationary credentials by reversing the two moves we made last winter.","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'In any event, I think there is a reasonable likelihood that we will decide at the next meeting that we have enough information to warrant a tightening move at that time. Therefore, those who share my view that price stability is what we do for a living because it is the road to sustained economic growth have to remember that we are not talking about whether the infidels are replacing the zealots or even whether we are a group of more or less tough-minded people. All the Chairman is recommending, which I very firmly endorse, is that we recognize that we do not know enough to make a firm decision at this point, but we do know enough so that our watching has to be particularly attentive. Therefore, an asymmetric directive toward firming is appropriate. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Broaddus. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'For the new members of the Committee, there are three interpretations of what an asymmetric directive means for every member of the Committee, but in this case I think it is clear what it means.It means, as the Chairman stated, that it is not at all impossible that we will see enough incoming data of a kind that will lead us to the conclusion that we have to tighten before the next meeting.In any event, I think there is a reasonable likelihood that we will decide at the next meeting that we have enough information to warrant a tightening move at that time.Therefore, those who share my view that price stability is what we do for a living because it is the road to sustained economic growth have to remember that we are not talking about whether the infidels are replacing the zealots or even whether we are a group of more or less tough-minded people.All the Chairman is recommending, which I very firmly endorse, is that we recognize that we do not know enough to make a firm decision at this point, but we do know enough so that our watching has to be particularly attentive.Therefore, an asymmetric directive toward firming is appropriate.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Broaddus.'}]",no,,,,
560,564,19960703_526_14,MR. LINDSEY.,"""We viewed that as a long time, and we certainly did not want to go beyond a year.""","In dollars. Let us think about the odds that the transaction would be used to prevent systemic contagion to the U.S. banking system versus the odds that it would be used for domestic political considerations because the Chinese are selling us too many shirts or whatever it is. Do you want to give me the odds on that? I know which way it is going to come out. The only place where I think the issue gets really difficult is with the yen, which does serve as a true world store of value currency. Even in that case, it can still be used for domestic political considerations. So, I think we have to draw the net very tightly on countries with which we will undertake to do these transactions. I believe the way to think of this is in terms of the probability that we may need to intervene for good reasons versus purely domestic political considerations. The second issue is one of duration. I do not remember any discussion of this although, Bill, you did allude to it. We could have a two-day reverse repo or a three-day reverse repo, but if we renew it 100 times, it suddenly becomes what I would call a real extension of credit. I would suggest that we think hard about that issue; that would be one of the clearer lines in the sand that we would have to draw. I remember in our discussion of the Mexican bailout that we all knew we were going a bit out on a limb for a year. We viewed that as a long time, and we certainly did not want to go beyond a year. If we are going to focus on this and we want to avoid the appearance of an extension of credit, I would think that the duration has to be a lot less than a year. Maybe it should be a matter of weeks.","[{'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': '[Laughter] '}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'Let us think about the Indian rupee or the Chinese renminbi. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'These are repurchases involving U.S. Treasury securities. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'All right, let us pick the case of a repurchase agreement with China. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'In dollars. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'I do not think that is what we are here for, and I think there are risks to this institution if we play that game.We really have to think about two issues.The first, as has been mentioned, is the list of countries with which we want to conduct these transactions, and related to that is the question of whether or not the other currency is a major store of value.Mr. Chairman, you indicated that we should exclude countries where the State Department does not want U.S. citizens to travel.I do not think we need a repurchase agreement with North Korea or Cuba, and I do not know where else we cannot travel, so I think that is too small a list of excluded countries.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Iran.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'Iran, okay.We do not need a repurchase agreement with Iran right now.'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'They have their own printing press![Laughter]'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'Let us think about the Indian rupee or the Chinese renminbi.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'These are repurchases involving U.S. Treasury securities.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'All right, let us pick the case of a repurchase agreement with China.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'In dollars.'}]",yes,no,,,
561,565,19961217_24_1,MR. BOEHNE.,"""That seems like a reasonable tradeoff.""","That seems like a reasonable tradeoff. If you are planning to go in earlier, and I presume this is just a way station to entering the market still earlier as more information becomes available, that opens up the possibility, or maybe the likelihood, that you can come into the market more than once during the day.","[{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': ""I am not saying that the amount of the bids is always double, but that is rather common. The amount of dealer bids for financing is actually a very helpful piece of information in assessing the amount of reserves we think we may need to inject. As we have focused increasingly on day-to-day operations because of the much reduced operating balances and related uncertainty, the size of dealer bids has become a variable of growing importance. I accept in principle that it would be better to announce the size of intended System operations, but that makes me somewhat uncomfortable because I like to see the dealers' appetite as an indicator that may lead me to shade the size of the operation one way or another. In my view, announcing the size of the contemplated operation becomes problematic. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': ""The con is that we like to look at dealer appetites as one indicator of funding needs, so I am rather uncomfortable in situations where we announce we are doing a $1 billion customer operation and we get so many bids that we do $2 billion, which is rather typical.I am not saying that the amount of the bids is always double, but that is rather common.The amount of dealer bids for financing is actually a very helpful piece of information in assessing the amount of reserves we think we may need to inject.As we have focused increasingly on day-to-day operations because of the much reduced operating balances and related uncertainty, the size of dealer bids has become a variable of growing importance.I accept in principle that it would be better to announce the size of intended System operations, but that makes me somewhat uncomfortable because I like to see the dealers' appetite as an indicator that may lead me to shade the size of the operation one way or another.In my view, announcing the size of the contemplated operation becomes problematic.""}]",yes,no,,,
562,566,19970702_311_9,MR. STERN.,"""Secondly, if there is a NAIRU, it bounces around a lot.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'So I have to wonder if some small increase in the federal funds rate might not be wise. I see the desirability of some tightening not just as an insurance policy against increasing inflation but as a further step toward price stability where the tradeoffs between recession and inflation are less dangerous in my opinion. We may have an opportunity here, if not now then at some time in the near future, to move toward price stability if we do it carefully. In my view, that is one of the objectives in addition to preventing higher inflation that we should consider as we contemplate policy in the future. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stem. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'With that in mind, I think it is interesting that as output has strengthened, inflation has declined.Though there are difficulties involved in explaining that, as you have pointed out, Mr. Chairman, it is a fact that we have seen an improvement in output even as inflation has fallen from modest levels to more modest levels.We need to keep that in mind.I also believe, however, that we are not yet at price stability.So I have to wonder if some small increase in the federal funds rate might not be wise.I see the desirability of some tightening not just as an insurance policy against increasing inflation but as a further step toward price stability where the tradeoffs between recession and inflation are less dangerous in my opinion.We may have an opportunity here, if not now then at some time in the near future, to move toward price stability if we do it carefully.In my view, that is one of the objectives in addition to preventing higher inflation that we should consider as we contemplate policy in the future.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stem.'}]",no,,,,
563,567,19980331_169_5,MR. POOLE.,"""It may turn out that the message is not what we want at the time it actually appears.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'In earlier discussions, I have expressed some sympathy with what President Parry was talking about regarding announcements because I believe more information is of value. However, like others, I think that if we release a statement on this occasion, we will have set a precedent and we will have to continue making statements going forward. I do think that requires a fair amount of discussion of what the impact will be and how we want to manage that. For that reason, I would also encourage you to prepare the markets in a sense through a very carefully drawn up speech that outlines the issues that we face and gives the market more information than would a short statement after each meeting. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Poole. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MEYER.', 'text': 'A change from symmetry to asymmetry sends some indication of partial tightening or easing to the market, and our willingness to move from symmetry to asymmetry may be affected by whether or not we are going to announce that move, depending on what impact it is going to have on the market.Another consideration, Mr. Chairman, would be that your signaling to the markets in a speech would allow you to provide more explanation, and I think that would be desirable at this point also.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, could I comment on whether we should make such an announcement?In earlier discussions, I have expressed some sympathy with what President Parry was talking about regarding announcements because I believe more information is of value.However, like others, I think that if we release a statement on this occasion, we will have set a precedent and we will have to continue making statements going forward.I do think that requires a fair amount of discussion of what the impact will be and how we want to manage that.For that reason, I would also encourage you to prepare the markets in a sense through a very carefully drawn up speech that outlines the issues that we face and gives the market more information than would a short statement after each meeting.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Poole.'}]",no,,,,
564,568,19980519_97_1,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""In that regard, the only really interesting statistic that we have is the response to a question we asked the purchasing managers, namely whether in their judgment the inventories of manufacturers' customers were too high, about right, or too low.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The oil companies obviously would have preferred a lower level of liftings around the world, especially the amount that has flowed into the United States, which they obviously are trying to cut. Oil stocks are not an irrelevant statistic among the numbers we are looking at. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': 'I was just trying to get at the issue of whether the firms themselves felt that their inventory accumulation was voluntary or involuntary. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I think the answer, and that is what the Greenbook suggests, is that there's very little evidence that it is involuntary. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': ""Right, that's what I thought. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Crude oil and oil product inventories have moved up quite significantly.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'There is no doubt on the oil side.My sense is that the buildup was only to a modest degree the result of price speculation.It appears to have been much more the result of softer-than-anticipated demand for petroleum products because of the warm winter weather.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'That is evidence of some backing up in inventories because the accumulation is not what they intended.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'Right.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'So, from the look of things, oil inventories are higher than intended.The oil companies obviously would have preferred a lower level of liftings around the world, especially the amount that has flowed into the United States, which they obviously are trying to cut.Oil stocks are not an irrelevant statistic among the numbers we are looking at.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': 'I was just trying to get at the issue of whether the firms themselves felt that their inventory accumulation was voluntary or involuntary.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I think the answer, and that is what the Greenbook suggests, is that there's very little evidence that it is involuntary.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': ""Right, that's what I thought.""}]",no,,,,
565,569,19980701_397_6,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""I would put it to Don Kohn to do the following if everyone is in agreement--[Laughter]""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'I would support giving her three Nobel prizes on this, but I do not think fixing it is quite that difficult. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'We actually did improve the directive once before. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'This directive is clear by comparison! [Laughter] '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'But I think we can do better. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'That is, of course, my point.To try to explain this to the public and to use the tilt as a method of educating the public seems fruitless to me.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I agree.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': ""It will confuse the public more if we try to use this tool to educate them about monetary policy.It is the wrong tool to use.I certainly favor educating the public about monetary policy, but let's not try to do it with the tilt.I would like to find other ways to do this.I don't have any easy suggestions, given the difficulty that people have pointed out here.I certainly support Alice Rivlin's suggestion, though, of writing the operational paragraph in plain English.I, too, am offended by it every time we go through it.I would support giving her three Nobel prizes on this, but I do not think fixing it is quite that difficult.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'We actually did improve the directive once before.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'This directive is clear by comparison![Laughter]'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'But I think we can do better.'}]",no,,,,
566,570,19981117_128_2,MS. MINEHAN.,"""I totally agree.""","I want to extend this discussion on volatility just a little further. I totally agree. I think that volatility has been used in the past as an estimate of whether the Desk is doing a good job or not. But I think it is useful to see how much volatility there is and how hard it can be on some days for the Desk to achieve the results that it wants; it does tell us something. So I don't regard that as necessarily a measure of the Desk hitting its stride operationally or not. It is useful to have this information, and I think it tells us a good deal about what has been going on in the fed funds market, and a good deal about the hesitancy to use the discount window. I agree with President Hoenig and President McDonough that we should review the use of the discount window once again, but I must say that as long as the media can learn who is using the discount window, or make guesses that turn out to be reasonably accurate, there is going to be a continuing hesitancy to use the discount window.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I think the issue should really be how aggressive the Desk should be in its operations. The funds rates that fall out from those operations are what the market is telling us, and volatility in funds rates is market information that we can very readily suppress if we wish. I like the little boxes in Peter's charts. They are very interesting, but I think there is a question as to what they tell us. President Minehan. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': ""For example, we could post very narrow buying and selling rates, perhaps 1/16 percentage point on either side of the target rate.It also would be perfectly feasible to eliminate volatility completely, although there may be very good reasons for not doing it.Second, the Desk used to intervene more frequently during the day, but it has ceased doing that, probably for good reason.More importantly, however, I just don't think that the volatility of the federal funds rate should be of much concern to us.Peter does a good job with the situation he has, and we should just accept that some volatility is inherent in the way we choose to operate.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I agree with that.I think the issue should really be how aggressive the Desk should be in its operations.The funds rates that fall out from those operations are what the market is telling us, and volatility in funds rates is market information that we can very readily suppress if we wish.I like the little boxes in Peter's charts.They are very interesting, but I think there is a question as to what they tell us.President Minehan.""}]",yes,no,,,
567,571,19990630_95_12,MR. STERN.,"""As far as the national economy is concerned, not surprisingly our VAR model remains quite optimistic.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. GUYNN.', 'text': ""In general, relative price movements aren't inherently inflationary and they should be permitted to play themselves out. Such price pressures would dissipate quickly as real and financial resources are reallocated, as long as our policy stance prevents these relative price adjustments from being passed on through the economy as a general price level adjustment. However, if we persist in maintaining interest rates below what I believe is likely to be their pre-shock equilibrium levels, we may inadvertently be pursuing an easier and inherently inflationary monetary policy. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GUYNN.', 'text': ""Business investment spending may slow some, but it appears likely to continue to run ahead of past experience in a mature expansion.Should the reversal of the positive external shocks occur as expected, that raises a fundamental question about the overall stance of monetary policy.Would the associated run-up in measured inflation reflect embedded inflation that has been temporarily masked by a series of favorable events?Or would the increase be temporary due to the nature of the fixed-weight inflation measures and the fact that only relative prices of energy and commodities have increased?In general, relative price movements aren't inherently inflationary and they should be permitted to play themselves out.Such price pressures would dissipate quickly as real and financial resources are reallocated, as long as our policy stance prevents these relative price adjustments from being passed on through the economy as a general price level adjustment.However, if we persist in maintaining interest rates below what I believe is likely to be their pre-shock equilibrium levels, we may inadvertently be pursuing an easier and inherently inflationary monetary policy.Thank you, Mr. Chairman.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern.'}]",no,,,,
568,572,19991116_183_7,MR. KELLEY.,"""So, in my view, what appears in alternative I is the more appropriate presentation of how the FOMC leaves each meeting.""","I would welcome an opportunity to review a little further the language that was suggested about the Chairman's latitude to act between meetings. I have no problem with the substance of it, but I would like to work with the language a bit more. Concerning the wording in the announcement that Roger referred to at the end of his remarks, I would strongly support alternative I--describing the balance of risks--because I think it's appropriately informative and accurate. And I like the fact that it avoids implying in advance that a determination has been made by the Committee to move one way or the other. We do not, in fact, make such a determination. We review the situation from a zero base at each meeting. So, in my view, what appears in alternative I is the more appropriate presentation of how the FOMC leaves each meeting.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'You have seven members on the Working Group? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'Yes, we have seven. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Since you've all thought about this, it might be helpful to hear from the individual members about the reasons why they came to the views that they did. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': ""I think that's absolutely fine. Why don't we start with the one who is closest to me, Mike Kelley, and then we'll go around the table to the others. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': ""Those are the issues on which the Working Group needs some guidance.Let me mention one other process issue.We will take your guidance, obviously, and then go back and try to craft the appropriate wording.We have some draft language in the memo, but I don't want this discussion to become too heavily focused on the specific words we used, since we have plenty of time to continue to work on the wording.But if we can get guidance from you on whether or not we've generally got the consensus right and how you would handle the future-looking element, that would be most helpful.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'You know what I think would be useful?You have seven members on the Working Group?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'Yes, we have seven.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Since you've all thought about this, it might be helpful to hear from the individual members about the reasons why they came to the views that they did.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': ""I think that's absolutely fine.Why don't we start with the one who is closest to me, Mike Kelley, and then we'll go around the table to the others.""}]",yes,no,,,
569,573,19991116_241_1,MR. MEYER.,"""I just had a comment on the Chairman's latitude.""",,"[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': ""So I think if we have our own 22nd, 23rd, and 24th psalms and the only thing we have to decide is which one we are going to use, that will supply the needed information to the market. That's option I. That would avoid the confusion caused by the modern version of the Fed watcher deciding that if we change this word or that comma, there are grave market implications in that change. What I like most of all is the consistency. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'I think Larry Meyer had another comment. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'This is written with the current status quo in mind, but if we voted to select a different Bank, then we would make a conforming amendment in the Authorization.Bill, did you have a perspective on alternativeI versus alternative II?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'My main desire is that we get away from the business of looking at ourselves in the mirror.Therefore, I like the idea that most of the time-ideally all the time--we would have one of three psalms.The 23rd psalm, my favorite, which starts out ""The Lord is my Shepherd,"" has been around for 2,850 years and it has been doing a pretty good job.So I think if we have our own 22nd, 23rd, and 24th psalms and the only thing we have to decide is which one we are going to use, that will supply the needed information to the market.That\'s option I.That would avoid the confusion caused by the modern version of the Fed watcher deciding that if we change this word or that comma, there are grave market implications in that change.What I like most of all is the consistency.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'I think Larry Meyer had another comment.'}]",no,,,,
570,574,20000516_87_7,MR. PRELL.,"""So, we believe that we need to move rates up still further for a period in order to rein in this expansion somewhat and restore a balance between aggregate supply and demand.""","We've made a few mistakes in the past! [Laughter] So we could be making a mistake this time. We could be making a mistake this time even if we had been perfect in the past. But in essence our judgment is that the rise in interest rates has to some extent reflected the pressures of an extraordinary expansion in aggregate demand that is in part a product of the run-up in stock prices. And, in all likelihood, it's also partly a reflection of an adjustment to a higher potential growth rate that has come with an acceleration of productivity. As we look at what has been an accelerating pattern of economic expansion, it seems to us that we probably have not moved interest rates up enough to curb that acceleration of aggregate demand and real growth. So, we believe that we need to move rates up still further for a period in order to rein in this expansion somewhat and restore a balance between aggregate supply and demand. Whether rates will have to go as high as we forecast and remain that high is difficult to say. Fiscal policy developments could play a role in determining that. But this forecast is our best shot. And it's not one that is grossly at odds with what the market seems to be anticipating, with one exception. And that is that we are looking for a significant further rise in nominal bond yields because we don't think the market really has built in this upward trend in inflation that we believe is commencing. So as we look forward, we expect there will be a need for a high real interest rate, and we anticipate that inflation expectations are going to be deteriorating somewhat in the environment that we are forecasting.","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': ""Let's say that the markets have it right, and what is reflected in the financial markets is that we have a transitory acceleration in nominal spending and real output and then we will glide into the staff's set of numbers in the Greenbook. In that scenario, I cannot imagine getting into the fourth quarter of 2001 and seeing the funds rate up there in the 7 percent range or more and the associated other interest rates comparably higher. In fact, I would say where rates are right now is probably consistent with this set of nominal and real GDP numbers. Your reaction? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': ""The staff got it exactly right in terms of nominal GDP, real GDP, and all of the other variables in these Greenbook tables for the six-quarter period starting in the third quarter of 2000 and running through the fourth quarter of next year.But then if I looked at where the funds rate would be--at 7-1/4 or 8 percent or something like that--and the associated other yields, I think I would be absolutely mystified.Now, I have to admit that, when I reflect on the financial markets of the last four quarters, I have a lot of unanswered questions about their consistency with the performance of the economy.Certainly the Treasury market is difficult to interpret.Let's say that the markets have it right, and what is reflected in the financial markets is that we have a transitory acceleration in nominal spending and real outputand then we will glide into the staff's set of numbers in the Greenbook.In that scenario, I cannot imagine getting into the fourth quarter of 2001 and seeing the funds rate up there in the 7 percent range or more and the associated other interest rates comparably higher.In fact, I would say where rates are right now is probably consistent with this set of nominal and real GDP numbers.Your reaction?""}]",yes,yes,sentence,entailment,sentence
571,575,20000628_203_3,MR. GUYNN.,"""Like our colleagues in Minneapolis, and I believe some from other Reserve Banks, we have been using a VAR model to try to gauge different inflation paths given different fed funds assumptions.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'We ought to let them work and observe where that is taking us. And as others have said, a lot of data will be coming in over the next several weeks that I think will provide us useful information from which to make a further judgment on the effects of our earlier tightening moves. One of the side benefits is that our press statement last time indicated that the balance of risks was on the up side and today we are not acting on it, and I believe that is a healthy thing to do as well. So, I think your recommendation is a very good one. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Guynn. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'I would hate to wait until late in August, a couple of months before an election, and find ourselves in a real bind.So I make that suggestion.Thank you.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoenig.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I support your proposal.I don't know if we have moved as far as we need to, but I suspect that right now there are still a lot of monetary policy effects in the pipeline from the actions we have taken here recently that are not yet fully in play.We ought to let them work and observe where that is taking us.And as others have said, a lot of data will be coming in over the next several weeks that I think will provide us useful information from which to make a further judgment on the effects of our earlier tightening moves.One of the side benefits is that our press statement last time indicated that the balance of risks was on the up side and today we are not acting on it, and I believe that is a healthy thing to do as well.So, I think your recommendation is a very good one.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Guynn.'}]",no,,,,
572,576,20000822_165_2,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""In any event Lynn, let's do that next time.""","Nobody remembers these things! In any event Lynn, let's do that next time. The next meeting will be on October 3rd and we will now adjourn for lunch.","[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': ""I don't know if anyone else feels this way, but if market observers are going to start looking at exactly how we change a comma from last time, I guess I want to know about it. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I will say that when we draft this, we do it with precisely that in mind. But we may not do it to your satisfaction. [Laughter] It may not be a bad idea to have the comparison in front of us. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': 'I may just not remember. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': ""My point is that increasingly on TV programs we are seeing comparisons of what we said at the last meeting and what we are saying today.I wonder if it's possible, since some of us don't remember exactly what the press statement said after the last meeting, if we could have a little reminder of the changes made in the statement?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Obviously we can give you the whole statement, but what we can do, if you prefer, is to give you the operative paragraphs.There are only really two operative paragraphs in this.SEVERAL.Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The rest is boilerplate.We could do that readily so that you would be able to compare them fairly quickly.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': ""I don't know if anyone else feels this way, but if market observers are going to start looking at exactly how we change a comma from last time, I guess I want to know about it.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I will say that when we draft this, we do it with precisely that in mind.But we may not do it to your satisfaction.[Laughter] It may not be a bad idea to have the comparison in front of us.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': 'I may just not remember.'}]",no,,,,
573,577,20001003_2_2,MR. FISHER.,"""I will be referring to the package of charts with a peach cover.1 On the first page, as usual, is a chart depicting the forward rates.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Good morning, everyone. We begin with Peter Fisher. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Good morning, everyone.We begin with Peter Fisher.'}]",no,,,,
574,578,20001115_62_7,MR. POOLE.,"""My second comment is on an entirely different subject.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': ""But they are not raising wages enough to fill them. In fact, Manpower is not seeing any large increases in compensation. If that's accurate, it probably would support the second part of what you're saying here. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': 'Yes, indeed. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Poole. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': ""We're just trying to feel our way through as we watch what is happening.So, I think there's a wide band of uncertainty, but you're hitting on an important element in the forecast going forward from here.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': ""We talk to the people at Manpower on a regular basis, and a comment our contact made to me this time is that their forecast for job openings, which I'll mention later, has set another record.There are a lot of openings that haven't been filled; they are just sort of sitting there.This is speculating on his part, but he knows the data very well, and he's saying that companies at the lower end may not be filling these openings because they are not trying that hard to fill them.The openings are there, and at the right wage these firms would fill them.But they are not raising wages enough to fill them.In fact, Manpower is not seeing any large increases in compensation.If that's accurate, it probably would support the second part of what you're saying here.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': 'Yes, indeed.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Poole.'}]",no,,,,
575,579,20010320_119_8,MR. KELLEY.,"""While the financial markets are clamoring for it, the data from the real economy seem firmer than such a move might imply.""",,"[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'So, such an action would be extremely ill advised. And the peculiar thing is that the end result would be a reduction in our flexibility at exactly the time we need it. Thus, I believe that every part of your recommendation, in particular making it rather clear that we might well move before the next meeting, is appropriate. Thank you. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'That would require creating a certain amount of uncertainty among the bears in the market who are forever trying to find a new carcass to feed on.In my view, therefore, a 75 basis point cut in the funds rate would be very, very unwise.The market could interpret that as an indication that we had finished easing monetary policy.We don\'t know whether we will have finished easing with another 75 basis point reduction.I would note, too, that I think your use of the word ""addiction"" was absolutely right.It would be assumed that the new ""normal"" move was 75 basis points; we would be feeding the addict\'s habit and the next time he or she would want a move of 75 basis points or more.So, such an action would be extremely ill advised.And the peculiar thing is that the end result would be a reduction in our flexibility at exactly the time we need it.Thus, I believe that every part of your recommendation, in particular making it rather clear that we might well move before the next meeting, is appropriate.Thank you.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley.'}]",no,,,,
576,580,20011106_122_5,MS. MINEHAN.,"""I found the starkness of your argument a little off-putting""",My question is along the same line. You've drawn--and maybe this is just my perspective--what seems to me to be a fairly stark difference between a cut of 25 versus a cut of 50 basis points. I must say I was troubled by your comment about getting ourselves into a liquidity trap without a 50 basis point cut. I understood you to say that a 25 basis point cut would not work to avoid that problem. I found the starkness of your argument a little off-putting and I thought you might expound a bit more on that.,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'You did 50, and the markets revised down the out-year Eurodollar contracts by 7 to 9 basis points. And I think that kind of response would not be an unreasonable one. So I would anticipate some downward revision, but not a big one in the immediate expectations. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'Thank you. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Minehan. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'Will those expectations be completely revised and instead of 75 basis points of ease on the horizon from where we are will they talk about another 75 basis points from where we would be if we were to go with a larger cut?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""I think a move of 50 basis points will have a relatively small effect on market expectations.After all, markets have already built in about a two-thirds probability of a 50 basis point cut.I don't put too much weight on the precise measurement of that probability, but you would not be greatly surprising them with such a cut.I would expect something along the lines of what happened after your last meeting when the markets were debating between a reduction of 25 or 50 basis points.You did 50, and the markets revised down the out-year Eurodollar contracts by 7 to 9 basis points.And I think that kind of response would not be an unreasonable one.So I would anticipate some downward revision, but not a big one in the immediate expectations.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'Thank you.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Minehan.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
577,581,20011211_57_10,MS. MINEHAN.,"""A related issue, I think, involves what you said in answer to President Jordan's question when you talked about excess capacity and your forecast of the unemployment rate and a declining rate of inflation even into 2003.""","Let me explore a couple of related issues. Dino talked about the different explanations various market participants are giving regarding the jump in the yield curves. A couple of people that I've talked to in the Boston area really have been affected, in terms of the way they look at the market, by the level of volatility. They view the uncertainty quotient relating to some of the yields as significant, particularly on the bond side where they see a market that is not as deep because of corporate supply conditions. On the equity side, the question of how to interpret what the equity markets are saying is a very interesting one, given the drop in inflation expectations and the rise in equity prices and in yields on the bond side. I'm wondering whether, if instead of extreme optimism, we're seeing as well a degree of real uncertainty. There's perhaps a desire to climb on and not be left behind but also--if one combines the volatility and the lack of depth of markets--some underlying uncertainty about where things are going. Those market moves may not be as clear a message of strength as one might be inclined to interpret them. I wonder how one factors that into one's thinking. A related issue, I think, involves what you said in answer to President Jordan's question when you talked about excess capacity and your forecast of the unemployment rate and a declining rate of inflation even into 2003. The declining rate of inflation is at odds with most of the other major forecasts and may be at odds with the way the market sees it as well. Could you comment on both of those points?","[{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': ""But there can be big differences, depending upon the cost of capital adjustment. This relates to some of the issues that we talked about in the productivity presentation at your meeting last June; some of those parameters can make an important difference in the size of this effect. We don't have any research papers on this currently available but it's something that we will have to continue to work on. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Minehan. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': 'Obviously we have a couple of problems in doing that.One is that there just aren\'t enough observations in the data to justify thinking that we\'re going to be able to estimate this very precisely.So what we did was to use several different analytical models, parameterized to replicate some of the key features of the economy, and then we tried to examine how sensitive the outcomes that we get are to the assumptions that we have made.What we put in the forecast I\'d say would be consistent basically with both ""putty-putty"" types of models of investment and the ""putty-clay"" models of investment.But there can be big differences, depending upon the cost of capital adjustment.This relates to some of the issues that we talked about in the productivity presentation at your meeting last June; some of those parameters can make an important difference in the size of this effect.We don\'t have any research papers on this currently availablebut it\'s something that we will have to continue to work on.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Minehan.'}]",yes,no,,,
578,582,20020626_87_1,MR. STOCKTON.,"""Mr. Chairman, may I make one clarifying comment just so there isn't any confusion about what David and John have shown on exhibit 6?""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': ""While a policy of letting our implicit inflation target drift with actual inflation was felicitous in the late 1990s--to the extent that it allowed us in fact to achieve price stability--this opportunistic disinflation or whatever we want to call it seems to me clearly to have outlived its usefulness. We obviously don't want the current low inflation to turn into deflation, and we don't want it to turn back up into increased inflation. We don't want it to drift at all. Against that background, we now have what strikes me as a wonderful opportunity to fix the target and announce it explicitly. [Laughter] I always get back to that, Mr. Chairman! ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': ""In some sense we had everything to do with it since we chose to pass the downward effect of rising productivity growth on actual current inflation onto trend inflation.We could have done it differently.We could have followed a more stimulative policy, which might have resulted in less disinflation.So in that sense I believe we had everything to do with these results.I want to make one final point if I may.While a policy of letting our implicit inflation target drift with actual inflation was felicitous in the late 1990s--to the extent that it allowed us in fact to achieve price stability--this opportunistic disinflation or whatever we want to call it seems to me clearly to have outlived its usefulness.We obviously don't want the current low inflation to turn into deflation, and we don't want it to turn back up into increased inflation.We don't want it to drift at all.Against that background, we now have what strikes me as a wonderful opportunity to fix the target and announce it explicitly.[Laughter] I always get back to that, Mr. Chairman!""}]",no,,,,
579,583,20031209_50_3,MS. JOHNSON.,"""We think we see the exchange value of the dollar showing through to the gold prices, for example, and we think we see it in some commodity prices.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""Now that's a different question from the strategy of OPEC, which might shift the band as a consequence of seeing a reduced international value of the dollar that is eroding somewhat the price OPEC is getting for its oil. What we're seeing now are fluctuations that are staying high in the band partly as a consequence of exchange rate developments. If that persists and if the dollar were to fall further, we might see the band shifting so that OPEC puts the spot market price back in the middle of the band. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'It looks as if the OPEC price is $2 to $3 a barrel under that for West Texas intermediate. Is it something like that? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""So as those currencies fluctuate against the dollar relative to a relatively sticky dollar price for oil, they see changes in the relative price of energy, and they react to the changes in those relative prices.That feeds back, on a short-term, day-by-day basis, onto the demand for oil in the spot market, and it shows through to the oil price.I honestly don't have in my head a number in terms of how strong it is, but it's not zero.Of that I'm quite sure.Now that's a different question from the strategy of OPEC, which might shift the band as a consequence of seeing a reduced international value of the dollar that is eroding somewhat the price OPEC is getting for its oil.What we're seeing now are fluctuations that are staying high in the band partly as a consequence of exchange rate developments.If that persists and if the dollar were to fall further, we might see the band shifting so that OPEC puts the spot market price back in the middle of the band.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'It looks as if the OPEC price is $2 to $3 a barrel under that for West Texas intermediate.Is it something like that?'}]",yes,no,,,
580,584,20040128_303_3,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""One would really have to argue that the bubble is in the bond market and not in the stock market, which raises interesting inflation expectations.""","The earnings-price ratio is a function of the low interest rates. We have low discount factors going out on earnings, which create the high ratio of price to earnings. One would really have to argue that the bubble is in the bond market and not in the stock market, which raises interesting inflation expectations.","[{'speaker': 'MR. SLIFMAN.', 'text': ""[Laughter] It is true that in our baseline forecast we don't see any bubbles. We've tried to lay out the possibility of risks and point out to you where, if we are wrong in that judgment, bubbles could occur. For example, by our forecast there isn't a bubble in house prices; but if there were, we have tried to point out that that could be a risk. So if that sector were to collapse suddenly, we have indicated the implications of that for household balance sheets. But you are correct that in our baseline we do not have a bubble. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': ""Another issue discussed in the press is the earnings-price ratio, and that ratio was a subject discussed in the briefing on Monday.The earnings-price ratio is at reasonably high levels, which means that prices must not be extraordinarily high.Prices are the denominator there.So as far as I can tell, you don't collectively put much credence in the likelihood of new bubbles.Maybe somebody would like to comment on that issue.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SLIFMAN.', 'text': ""I will agree with you.[Laughter] It is true that in our baseline forecast we don't see any bubbles.We've tried to lay out the possibility of risks and point out to you where, if we are wrong in that judgment, bubbles could occur.For example, by our forecast there isn't a bubble in house prices; but if there were, we have tried to point out that that could be a risk.So if that sector were to collapse suddenly, we have indicated the implications of that for household balance sheets.But you are correct that in our baseline we do not have a bubble.""}]",yes,yes,sentence,,
581,585,20050630_30_8,MR. MOSKOW.,"""The other interesting dynamic, of course, is that as agricultural subsidies have increased so rapidly--they are now about 50 percent of net farm income--there's less concern about the value of land coming down.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""So you have at least one dimension, which is this issue that you raise with respect to new homes and existing homes. Has anybody tried to look at that? I ask because they are the only data that I'm aware of which actually show a level of land prices over a significant period of time. And no one uses them on the grounds that agricultural land prices have nothing to do with residential land prices. But that can't be true. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GALLIN.', 'text': ""As you mentioned, we know something about farm prices.But besides those two things, there really aren't--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'As an example, the Chicago Bank publishes quarterly data--fairly detailed data--on land prices in all the states in its District.Does anybody else?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'Agricultural land, yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Yes.These are your data?You collect them?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'Yes, we collect the data.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""So you actually have data on each individual farm.You have a database from which one could actually construct the price changes over time to at least learn what is happening as the urban fringe moves out.So you have at least one dimension, which is this issue that you raise with respect to new homes and existing homes.Has anybody tried to look at that?I ask because they are the only data that I'm aware of which actually show a level of land prices over a significant period of time.And no one uses them on the grounds that agricultural land prices have nothing to do with residential land prices.But that can't be true.""}]",no,,,,
582,586,20050630_81_2,MR. RUDEBUSCH.,"""It seems as if there might be a threshold.""","I'm sympathetic to that view. It seems as if there might be a threshold. That is, policymakers might be more interested in certain asset markets or might be more interested in prices in asset markets in general at certain times. But I think you're alluding to the moral hazard or political complications that could arise from this type of intervention or from trying to use this bubble component as a monetary transmission mechanism.","[{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': ""But the point is that there could be a little bubble component or a big bubble component. Obviously, policymakers wouldn't apply the instrument when prices are regarded as reflecting the fundamentals, but the instrument would be continuously available. The whole point of such an instrument would be to keep the price right at the fundamentals. But then that would change the whole nature of asset pricing in a market economy. I think a proper policy analysis really can't be done on a one-off basis in cases such as the stock market in the '90s or house prices today. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': ""And I think it would be a terrible idea in a market economy to have a government agency setting capital asset values.That's why I would not start to go down this route; I believe it is really a dead-end.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. RUDEBUSCH.', 'text': ""I guess I'd make a distinction there, in that I think the proponents are talking not about setting asset prices in general but about trying perhaps to reduce the bubble component.Clearly, if asset prices are set equal to the fundamentals, that's going to lead to the proper functioning of--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': ""But the point is that there could be a little bubble component or a big bubble component.Obviously, policymakers wouldn't apply the instrument when prices are regarded as reflecting the fundamentals, but the instrument would be continuously available.The whole point of such an instrument would be to keep the price right at the fundamentals.But then that would change the whole nature of asset pricing in a market economy.I think a proper policy analysis really can't be done on a one-off basis in cases such as the stock market in the '90s or house prices today.""}]",yes,no,,,
583,587,20051213_48_5,MS. MINEHAN.,"""You probably have talked enough about this but I found that slowness in the pace of hiring a little disturbing after what we've been through.""","Well, at the risk of going back into a discussion that I think President Santomero began and President Poole picked up on, I was struck by the slow pace of hiring that is in your projection. You have job gains going from 85,000 a month in the second half of next year to 50,000 per month in 2007. Having come through the last three or four years, numbers like that in monthly employment data would be cause for concern, and yet we still have growth not that far below potential. We have structural productivity growing, a narrowing of the output gap, and unemployment staying about stable--the difference being this rise in compensation per hour creating enough income to support the demand side of it. You probably have talked enough about this but I found that slowness in the pace of hiring a little disturbing after what we've been through. And I wondered what your thoughts were about it. Maybe I'm just asking the same question that Tony was asking in terms of the risks to consumer spending.","[{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': ""I assume that your models include a dynamic. I'd like to understand it better, and maybe some of my other colleagues would as well. So it's not a question to be answered now, but if you'd be kind enough to do that, I'd be grateful. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Minehan. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': ""And I would submit that while it may not be Anglo-Saxon capitalism, part of this is just a matter of realizing the value of capital and the desire to attract capital.Moreover, the improving at-home conditions make many of these countries increasingly attractive as an alternative.And the competition is good.My question is to David, and maybe Brian or others.I wonder if you could--not now but with some kind of briefing or a paper at some point--give us a sense about the issue you mentioned of the lags in the effects of monetary policy tightening.I'm curious about the dynamics in a tightening scenario such as the FOMC has been pursuing here.How do you calculate the impact and the likely lag time intervals in the progressive process that we've been going through as opposed to a one-time shock?I assume that your models include a dynamic.I'd like to understand it better, and maybe some of my other colleagues would as well.So it's not a question to be answered now, but if you'd be kind enough to do that, I'd be grateful.Thank you, Mr. Chairman.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Minehan.'}]",yes,no,,,
584,588,20060328_39_2,MR. LACKER.,"""So I was just wondering, does that result convey a lack of credibility in the estimated Taylor rule, or what do you think is going on there?""",,"[{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'In our baseline for this Greenbook, the contribution of exports to U.S. real GDP growth for the rest of this year and next is, at an annual rate, just a bit more than 0.5 percentage point. The arithmetic contribution from imports varies by quarter, in part because of the way real imports are seasonally adjusted. On average, imports subtract more than exports add, resulting in a net negative contribution to GDP growth from the external sector that is 0.3 to 0.4 percentage point at an annual rate. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Are there questions? President Lacker. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'Futures prices for these commodities indicate some future flattening, but lagged responses to these increases should boost core import price inflation to 3 percent this year before some deceleration occurs next year.Our projections for the U.S. economy, for relative prices of nonfuel imports, and for global energy prices combine to imply a rate of growth for real imports of goods and services over the remaining seven quarters of the forecast period that is slightly greater than that for exports.With nominal imports currently more than 150 percent of nominal exports, the resulting implication for the nominal trade deficit is inevitably a further widening.In our baseline for this Greenbook, the contribution of exports to U.S. real GDP growth for the rest of this year and next is, at an annual rate, just a bit more than 0.5 percentage point.The arithmetic contribution from imports varies by quarter, in part because of the way real imports are seasonally adjusted.On average, imports subtract more than exports add, resulting in a net negative contribution to GDP growth from the external sector that is 0.3 to 0.4 percentage point at an annual rate.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Are there questions?President Lacker.'}]",no,,,,
585,589,20060629_163_6,MS. MINEHAN.,"""We need to be concerned about that at this time.""","I just want to step in and say that I totally agree with Tom Hoenig's statement. At a time when things are so uncertain, it would be really good if all of us could watch the language that we use and not get ourselves into a situation where we feel, which I know I do, pre-committed to something. I'm in favor of this move. I would have been in favor of it probably in any event. But I do think there are reasons to think carefully about the pause that President Hoenig has put on the table and that has been kind of taken out of our hands. We need to be concerned about that at this time.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': '[Laughter] '}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': ""That's a generous word, but thank you. [Laughter] ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Minehan. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': ""At the same time, I do not think the risks are all one-sided, and I believe we need to state this in the release.For example, I judge that monetary policy is now restrictive or somewhat restrictive, and we should say so.Now, I agree with those who say nineteen people can't write a statement, but that's something we should have in the statement going forward.Moreover, in the current circumstances, I believe it is very difficult to devise forward-looking language that will clearly be understood by the financial markets.Obviously, we're talking about that here and having trouble ourselves.So regardless of the decision at this meeting, I think that it is especially important that we do not, by our choice of language, pre-commit to another increase in August.And I will leave it at that.Thank you.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Hoenig, I think everyone around the table admires you for your consistent position.[Laughter]'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': ""That's a generous word, but thank you.[Laughter]""}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Minehan.'}]",yes,yes,-200+ tokens,contradiction,-200+ tokens
586,590,20060920_71_1,MR. STOCKTON.,"""I completely agree.""","I completely agree. As I indicated, this piece of our forecast does make me nervous because we are far out of the consensus, especially in our expectation for the decline in labor force participation. I'm actually a little less nervous than I was a year and a half ago, when we first moved to this change in our forecast, because at the time a very big question was whether there was going to be a large pool of underutilized and unutilized workers who would come back into the labor force as the unemployment rate came down. When the unemployment rate came down, the labor force participation rate--pretty much as we had expected--moved sideways. So I feel a little more comfortable than I did earlier about this piece of our forecast. But any time you are this different from everybody else, you need to be reasonably humble. As far as your observation about the market-based funds rate simulation, I think you are absolutely right. A different way to interpret it is to try to understand what the markets are telling us about the economy. I would also point to another alternative simulation that I think goes a bit in the direction that you're suggesting--the ""less inflation persistence"" simulation, in which inflation comes down more rapidly and, in essence, allows the Fed to lower the fed funds rate more significantly than we're assuming in the baseline in a way that's not that different from the market's expectation for the funds rate. Now, that's one possibility, or it could be some combination. The market could be looking at some combination of a little less persistence of inflation and maybe a little weaker outlook for activity, although I would wonder about the weaker market interpretation. Looking at the full financial configuration, I don't see indications from financial markets that there's an expectation of a lot of financial stress on our doorstep. So I'm inclined to the view that they may be more in that ""less inflation persistence"" camp than in a ""much weaker economy"" camp.","[{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': ""A number of you noted, and I think the Chairman noted in the testimony or a speech, that marking down of our expectations for what would be good underlying employment growth. I've also been surprised in the past few months. If you had told most economists or market commentators earlier this year that 100,000 a month was going to be a good employment figure, it would have come as a real shock. Yet there has been, I think, a marking down of expectations for employment growth in that the recent figures, when they come out at 111,000 aren't viewed as devastating. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': ""But there's a big difference between 100,000 and a quarter of that number. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': 'I just want to throw out that observation and ask whether you have any response to it.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': ""Viewed from the appropriate perspective, 25,000 per month is not too bad--viewed perhaps from the perspective of the Administration of Millard Fillmore.[Laughter] So I will readily acknowledge that, if we're right about our labor input forecast, there will be some communication difficulties, and there will be maybe even more political consequences in some sense than underlying economic consequences.A number of you noted, and I think the Chairman noted in the testimony or a speech, that marking down of our expectations for what would be good underlying employment growth.I've also been surprised in the past few months.If you had told most economists or market commentators earlier this year that 100,000 a month was going to be a good employment figure, it would have come as a real shock.Yet there has been, I think, a marking down of expectations for employment growth in that the recent figures, when they come out at 111,000 aren't viewed as devastating.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': ""But there's a big difference between 100,000 and a quarter of that number.""}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
587,591,20061025_201_2,MS. YELLEN.,"""I support keeping rates unchanged.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support keeping rates unchanged. On the wording, I guess I lean slightly toward B+ over B, but it's not a matter that I feel strongly about, and I could certainly accept either alternative. I remain quite uncertain about how the various forces in the economy are going to play out. As I said in the economic go-round, I think that, if we maintain the current stance of policy, most likely we will get the desirable features of a soft landing with inflation coming down gradually. But I do think there are substantial risks for output growth. I guess they're balanced around moderate growth, but I remain concerned about a downside that would include a period of sustained and significant weakness. On the inflation front, I do think that the risks remain tilted in the direction of higher inflation both because I'm uncertain just how the inflation process is working and because, while I believe inflation will come down, I don't have confidence in the scenario underlying it. If we don't get the play-out of the downside housing risks, I think there is some probability that growth will actually be sufficiently strong that we'll get some upward pressure on inflation from the labor market. We're going to learn a lot by December. A lot of data are coming out that will bear on growth, inflation pressures, the labor market, and so forth. It clearly makes sense to wait. I guess I'm slightly attracted to B+ over B because I think the language more clearly suggests an upward bias for future rate changes and that does reflect my view of the risks to inflation and the likely path of policy. At a minimum, it seems to push back a bit against the market's view that we're going to be unwinding rather quickly. But I take the arguments that have been made around the table for B as opposed to B+. I'm not sure that there really is much to be gained by changing the language we have in place on this, and leaving it alone may be the wiser course at the end of the day. On section 2, I think that Governor Kohn made a good argument for changing that language. Again, I could go either way. Finally, on section 3, I prefer the wording in alternative A to that in alternative B. Referring to the high level of prices of energy and other commodities, given that we've had a substantial decline in energy prices, really does seem a bit out of date and a bit out of touch.","[{'speaker': 'MS. PIANALTO.', 'text': ""So for those reasons I'm comfortable with the assessment-of-risk language under alternative B. It's becoming clearer to me that our discussion after this round is becoming more important because the issues we're confronting are what level of inflation we find acceptable, how fast we are going to get there, and how we intend to get there. So I'm looking forward to that discussion after this go-round. Thank you. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Yellen. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. PIANALTO.', 'text': ""I was also going to suggest that in section 3 we use the language under alternative A, as Governor Kohn suggested.As a few others have said, I prefer to leave the assessment-of-risk language unchanged because I'm not sure that much has changed since our last meeting.The Bluebook notes that we could use the B+ language to protest the view that markets have that there is a greater likelihood that we're going to be easing rather than tightening.I'm not sure they are going to view it as a protest, and I prefer to use our minutes and speeches to more fully communicate that sentiment.So for those reasons I'm comfortable with the assessment-of-risk language under alternative B.It's becoming clearer to me that our discussion after this round is becoming more important because the issues we're confronting are what level of inflation we find acceptable, how fast we are going to get there, and how we intend to get there.So I'm looking forward to that discussion after this go-round.Thank you.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Yellen.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,sentence
588,592,20061212_15_5,MR. KOS.,"""If dealers see those flows, you will tend to get speculators who will follow it or try to front run it.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KOS.', 'text': 'But you all know that. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Are there other questions? President Fisher. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': ""Dino, you mentioned last year's rise in the euro--the soft dollar against the euro and other currencies. Is there a December effect, and if there is, what causes it? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': ""Dino, some work here at the Board suggests that a good portion of the decline in the long-term rates in the intermeeting period was due to a falling term premium as opposed to expectations of inflation.Is that consistent with what you've seen?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOS.', 'text': ""Yes, I think that's correct.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'And the reason for a lower term premium?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOS.', 'text': ""If I could answer that question, I'd be rich by now.[Laughter] It's hard to know.I don't pretend that I can give you a precise answer.Certainly, the markets have been in this benign situation for some time, and we've been struggling with this question for several years--why the term premium has been so low, why spreads have been so low, and why volatilities have been so low for this extended period.I just think that the longer the situation persists, the longer the risks rise--or at least that's what the worry is.But you all know that.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Are there other questions?President Fisher.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': ""Dino, you mentioned last year's rise in the euro--the soft dollar against the euro and other currencies.Is there a December effect, and if there is, what causes it?""}]",no,,,,
589,593,20070321_232_1,MS. DANKER.,"""I'll take a stab at it.""",,"[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': ""I don't think there is substantial increase in our uncertainty about the inflation forecast today versus January or even December. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Let me ask your indulgence on leaving it the way it is this time and thinking about it more carefully for the next meeting. Are there any other comments? Should I read it? [Laughter] '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PLOSSER.', 'text': ""I spoke before President Stern, but I think that President Stern's suggestion to replace sentence 2 in section 3 with sentence 2 in section 3 of alternative C would be a big improvement.Since you alluded to that suggestion and said that nobody came to support it, I just want to add my support to that suggestion.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Are there others who would like to make that change?SEVERAL.I support that.OTHERS.No, I--[Laughter]'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Vice Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': ""Considerable uncertainty has surrounded our forecast of inflation for some time.That's how we refer to the fact that there are inflation risks.We have now changed the characterization of the statement to acknowledge the fact that the recent readings have been somewhat elevated.That implicitly acknowledges that there's some uncertainty to our forecast.I don't think it's a justifiable change.I don't think there is substantial increase in our uncertainty about the inflation forecast today versus January or even December.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Let me ask your indulgence on leaving it the way it is this time and thinking about it more carefully for the next meeting.Are there any other comments?Should I read it?[Laughter]'}]",no,,,,
590,594,20071031_291_7,CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.,"""I will now give you the date of the next meeting, and I will adjourn the meeting.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'As long as everyone is doing the same thing. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': ""I hope, President Hoenig, that you won't be in this situation too often. [Laughter] ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': ""I've got a long record, and I haven't been in this situation too often. But I have been in this situation before. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': ""I just want to make sure that's what we all agree we're going to do.If that is, then fine; but I didn't have that understanding before you made that statement.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Lockhart.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LOCKHART.', 'text': 'Is there an inconsistency in adjusting a forecast after the meeting when the minutes are the minutes of the meeting and the forecasts informed the judgments that were expressed in the meeting?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': ""No, I don't think so.It is based on the information in the meeting, including the data we received this morning.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LOCKHART.', 'text': ""I'm not sure I see minutes reflecting subsequent actions or subsequent decisions.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': ""We're releasing this with the minutes?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': ""We're releasing it with the minutes.It's not part of the minutes.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LOCKHART.', 'text': 'Oh, okay.Good point.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': ""It's like an annual report that has updated information in it.As long as everyone is doing the same thing.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': ""I hope, President Hoenig, that you won't be in this situation too often.[Laughter]""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': ""I've got a long record, and I haven't been in this situation too often.But I have been in this situation before.""}]",no,,,,
591,595,20071211_56_1,MR. STERN.,"""Dave, I'm having difficulty reconciling the employment and hours data for the current quarter with your forecast of no growth whatsoever.""","Dave, I'm having difficulty reconciling the employment and hours data for the current quarter with your forecast of no growth whatsoever. It seems to me that, even if domestic final demand doesn't grow or grows little, we still have inventories and exports that could take up whatever output turns out to be, and we don't know very much about those two components for the current quarter, if I understand the situation right. Alternatively, obviously you can get a very bad productivity number, and that would square the circle. But I'm wondering what we know in particular about inventories and exports that would lead us to something as weak as this forecast.","[{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': ""Obviously we're not forecasting a business cycle peak. So in our forecast, we're not yet saying that we're on the downside of a business cycle. We have a growth recession in this forecast and nothing more than that. If we were to get a true cyclical downturn, I think you could obviously expect that to have some very considerable effects on foreclosures, business failures, and so forth; that channel or mechanism would amplify the downturn in this particular episode. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Stern. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': ""That's what I remember, but I haven't gone back and reviewed it, but from just my memory of looking at a lot of business cycle data over the years.That would say that, if my observation is correct, this is quite an unusual situation--unless of course we are past the peak or right at the peak.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': ""This is obviously a situation in which, in some sense, the financial stress is the shock to the system rather than the endogenous response to some other shock, either an aggressive tightening of policy or some other type of aggregate demand shock.So in that sense this particular configuration, I think, sort of fits with the situation we're currently facing.Obviously we're not forecasting a business cycle peak.So in our forecast, we're not yet saying that we're on the downside of a business cycle.We have a growth recession in this forecast and nothing more than that.If we were to get a true cyclical downturn, I think you could obviously expect that to have some very considerable effects on foreclosures, business failures, and so forth; that channel or mechanism would amplify the downturn in this particular episode.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Stern.'}]",yes,no,,,
592,596,20080625_218_2,VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.,"""I completely agree.""","Mr. Chairman, may I--not to preempt Art and Scott--in this case? I completely agree. It is very important not to undermine the value of these liquidity backstops by introducing stigma in their use until we get to the point at which we want to dial people back. But the decisions or the actions we took in the context of Cantor and Countrywide had a very compelling rationale. It would have been irresponsible for us, given the facts that over Cantor we have no comparable framework of supervision and that their exposure was very large relative to capital. In that context, we could do it without any risk that we were going to stigmatize the use of the PDCF because it's a unique thing. Countrywide, as you know, had a slightly different but similar rationale. It would have been imprudent for us to have had a substantial amount of securities outstanding, insufficiently collateralized, in the event that the deal didn't go through, because they were not viable on their own without Bank of America's buying them. That was a necessary and prudent thing to do. I think also that the risk was very limited that we introduced stigma to the facilities. The Barclays thing was more delicate. We would not say to them, ""You can't use the facility."" We just asked some careful questions about what they were doing and why, because their pattern of use was so different from everybody else's in that context. But I completely agree with your concern about that stuff. I think we must be very careful going forward that we don't do things that will alter this balance.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""We don't want you to borrow. If you come in and borrow, given that we don't want you to borrow, you must really be hurting to overcome Art Angulo's or Bill Dudley's frown. So I think the more we do this, the less useful this thing is as a backstop in some sense. I don't know. I don't have an easy answer as to how to resolve this tension. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': 'But it would be worth knowing a bit about the history of that debate in the past and what the probability is that we could get something like that through.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""I also had a question, Mr. Chairman, and it's on the PDCF.I find some tension in my own attitudes here.Your leaning all over these people not to borrow helps protect the Board's decision that this is unusual and exigent, credit couldn't otherwise be available, and all of that.So it's supportive of that.On the other hand, it sounds really like what we used to do with commercial banks all the time and thought it created stigma in the process.We don't want you to borrow.If you come in and borrow, given that we don't want you to borrow, you must really be hurting to overcome Art Angulo's or Bill Dudley's frown.So I think the more we do this, the less useful this thing is as a backstop in some sense.I don't know.I don't have an easy answer as to how to resolve this tension.""}]",yes,no,,,
593,597,20080805_63_3,MR. WILCOX.,"""I lost my train of thought here.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. REIFSCHNEIDER.', 'text': ""In some sense it's occurring, and so in some sense it's in our trend estimates. It is not as though our trends aren't implicitly taking in the fact that there's an ongoing loss in productivity associated with rising energy prices. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': ""I was just going to say that I thought the interesting thing about that scenario was that it doesn't really change your view about the appropriate path of monetary policy going forward. It's basically at the baseline. So even if you were to build in a material change in potential growth, because of the effects on demand going forward it doesn't affect your view about the appropriate path of policy. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WILCOX.', 'text': ""But it's a serious question.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. REIFSCHNEIDER.', 'text': ""There's one minor qualification to what David just said.We do keep track of rough estimates of what we think that the rise in energy prices over the past few years is possibly doing to trend productivity, and we've come up with estimates that maybe it's 0.1.We think that effect has been ongoing, and it is built into the data.In some sense it's occurring, and so in some sense it's in our trend estimates.It is not as though our trends aren't implicitly taking in the fact that there's an ongoing loss in productivity associated with rising energy prices.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': ""I was just going to say that I thought the interesting thing about that scenario was that it doesn't really change your view about the appropriate path of monetary policy going forward.It's basically at the baseline.So even if you were to build in a material change in potential growth, because of the effects on demand going forward it doesn't affect your view about the appropriate path of policy.""}]",no,,,,
594,598,20080805_71_3,MR. WILCOX.,"""You know, our ability to measure where that would leave house prices relative to some notion of fair valuation is incredibly imprecise.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. EVANS.', 'text': ""Housing inventories, unsold homes, are very high, and I guess I'm wondering again--we have gone over this a few times--what factors are likely to get housing advancing if it's not a sharp decline in housing prices? I'm having a hard time understanding why the expectation would not be for a relatively sharp decline. I'm translating the Greenbook/OFHEO numbers to Bill's numbers, and I'm not sure, but it seems to me that financial institutions ought to be thinking that a significant adjustment must still be in train if we're not expecting demand to pick up all of a sudden. The mortgage origination challenges are there. Or is this disequilibrium just going to sit there for an extended period of time? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': ""Not to stretch this too far, but another way of saying why the likely expected path or the appropriate path of policy doesn't change in terms of the nominal fed funds rate is that we have these offsetting effects on demand.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. REIFSCHNEIDER.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Evans.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. EVANS.', 'text': ""Thank you, Mr. Chairman.Regarding a comment that Bill Dudley made about housing prices, for financial institutions, it's going to matter a lot whether we're looking at a decline from 15 percent to 20 percent or from 15 percent to 30 percent.Housing inventories, unsold homes, are very high, and I guess I'm wondering again--we have gone over this a few times--what factors are likely to get housing advancing if it's not a sharp decline in housing prices?I'm having a hard time understanding why the expectation would not be for a relatively sharp decline.I'm translating the Greenbook/OFHEO numbers to Bill's numbers, and I'm not sure, but it seems to me that financial institutions ought to be thinking that a significant adjustment must still be in train if we're not expecting demand to pick up all of a sudden.The mortgage origination challenges are there.Or is this disequilibrium just going to sit there for an extended period of time?""}]",no,,,,
595,599,20081029_255_1,MR. FISHER.,"""Mr. Chairman, I would like to ask Governor Duke a question.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MS. DUKE.', 'text': 'Apparently, the impetus for both of these transactions was a judgment that the cash received from tax refunds was more advantageous than holding out for better pricing. So the outlook for lending in residential construction or commercial real estate is dim far into the future, and I would say the same thing for syndicated or participated lending. However, to the extent that banks can exit those segments, it should free up funds for normal lending for businesses and consumers. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Fisher. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. DUKE.', 'text': 'So far, the performance is holding up on commercial properties, with strong performance on apartments and weakness showing up in retail.Residential construction and land development continues to be a problem.In visiting the San Francisco and the Kansas City Banks, I was shocked to hear the same story from large builders about land sales.One builder had a 300-acre parcel with a cost of $75,000 an acre, listed it for $15,000 an acre, and sold it for $10,700.Another reported a property with a cost basis of $120 million selling for $12 million.Apparently, the impetus for both of these transactions was a judgment that the cash received from tax refunds was more advantageous than holding out for better pricing.So the outlook for lending in residential construction or commercial real estate is dim far into the future, and I would say the same thing for syndicated or participated lending.However, to the extent that banks can exit those segments, it should free up funds for normal lending for businesses and consumers.Thank you, Mr. Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Fisher.'}]",no,,,,
596,600,19770118_544_9,CHAIRMAN BURNS.,"""Let me make this suggestion to the Committee, and then we will discuss this: that we vote on a range of 3 to 7 for M1, 7 to 11 for M2, and 4-1/4 to 5 for the federal funds rate but that the midpoint be treated asymmetrically--that is at 4-3/4 rather than 4-5/8.""","All right, thank you, Mr. Morris. Anyone else? If not, there is a narrow preference for the ranges of 3 to 7 and 7 to 11 for M1 and M2 respectively. There's more diversity with regard to the federal funds rate, but the divergences are quite small. I think a reasonable balancing of the opinions expressed would be a range of 4-1/4 to 5. I would suggest that to the Committee. Or, I think if the Committee finds that suggestion agreeable, then I would suggest that we still consider the question of whether the midpoint be treated in symmetrical fashion or not. Symmetrically the midpoint would be 4-5/8, although the Committee might prefer a midpoint of 4-3/4, and that would accommodate the thinking of the plurality who wanted a range of 4-1/4 to 5-1/4. Let me make this suggestion to the Committee, and then we will discuss this: that we vote on a range of 3 to 7 for M1, 7 to 11 for M2, and 4-1/4 to 5 for the federal funds rate but that the midpoint be treated asymmetrically--that is at 4-3/4 rather than 4-5/8. Does that shock anyone?","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'That would be the judgment the Committee would have to reach. Normally, we move gradually; there have been times when the Committee wanted to move rather rapidly. Anyone else want to speak? Mr. Morris, yes, please. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I think that the differences we're talking about are quite narrow, but I think I would prefer to keep the present midpoint and use a 4-1/4 to 5 range. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WINN.', 'text': ""I'm not sure of that.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""It's as logical as anything around this table.""}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': ""That's a new consideration!""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Yes, Mr. Guffey.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""If I understand Mr. Winn correctly, I think I would adopt the same thing, that is, alternative C ranges on the aggregates with the fed funds 4-1/2 or 4-1/4 to 5--what is expressed as the range for B.It isn't clear to me, however, what would happen if we adopt a 4-1/2 to 5 range for the federal funds.Does that mean that we move fairly quickly to the 4-3/4 midpoint?That's an important question.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'That would be the judgment the Committee would have to reach.Normally, we move gradually; there have been times when the Committee wanted to move rather rapidly.Anyone else want to speak?Mr. Morris, yes, please.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I think that the differences we're talking about are quite narrow, but I think I would prefer to keep the present midpoint and use a 4-1/4 to 5 range.""}]",yes,yes,sentence,,
597,601,19770315_65_1,MR. BALLES.,"""I'd like to come back to Jerry's remarks on productivity and unit labor costs and ask him a question.""","I'd like to come back to Jerry's remarks on productivity and unit labor costs and ask him a question. As I look at the pattern for last year, it's somewhat disturbing if it were to be continued into this year, in the sense that, quarter-by-quarter last year, the rate of increase of real final sales changed pace as the year went along. Compensation per man-hour didn't really accelerate; it was growing at a lower rate during the last three quarters than the first quarter. The quarter-by-quarter rate of gain of output per man-hour went downhill; in fact, in the final quarter it actually was negative. And the net of that was that unit labor cost kept gaining in terms of rate of increase, quarter-by-quarter; in the fourth quarter, it took quite a sharp jump. If that were to continue, it'd have pretty adverse implications for 1977. I was wondering, taking this mix of things--[output] per man-hour, compensation against unit labor cost--what you see in the tea leaves for 1977.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""And I certainly get the impression there's every intention to try to remedy the situation. So I think the thrust of what Jerry said--that some of the shortfall may well be made up in the months to come, and we may well get more strength in government spending--is [on] a reasonable basis. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'I think it is. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ZEISEL.', 'text': 'Some of the shortfall would be made up by legislative increase in the expenditures for the second quarter, which in a sense are already built-in by $3 [billion] or $3-1/2 billion. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Yes, Mr. Balles, please. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""Now last year, Mr. Ford was blamed on the ground that he was seeking to curb expenditures.Well, Mr. Ford isn't around to be blamed any longer.And now the finger of blame is pointing to a multiplicity of agencies, which one way or another are not doing their job--their job being to spend and keep on spending.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Well, they are paying attention to it, though, Mr. Chairman; there is an effort being made to find out why the shortfall.And I certainly get the impression there's every intention to try to remedy the situation.So I think the thrust of what Jerry said--that some of the shortfall may well be made up in the months to come, and we may well get more strength in government spending--is [on] a reasonable basis.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'I think it is.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ZEISEL.', 'text': 'Some of the shortfall would be made up by legislative increase in the expenditures for the second quarter, which in a sense are already built-in by $3 [billion] or $3-1/2 billion.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Yes, Mr. Balles, please.'}]",no,,,,
598,602,19770419_61_5,MR. PARTEE.,"""I have not looked at it in detail.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Stripping that away, what we find is that the rebate was having a dragging influence later on as the effect is wearing off. So we take out--what is implicitly happening here is the underlying level of GNP is returning to its longer-run trend rate of growth. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': 'I see, so you really have to look at the real dollars here, rather than the rates, to completely understand. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ZEISEL.', 'text': 'The levels [without the rebates] remained below what they would have been with the rebates, despite the fact that the rate of growth accelerates. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': 'We tend to do this elliptically, to make it simple, but sometimes it gets more complicated. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': 'I guess I am a little surprised that you have introduced a negative effect of the rebate--if I may put it backwards--in that projection.Am I correct in that assumption?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'That, in a sense, falls out of the arithmetic.The rebate is assumed to have a temporary impact on the level of GNP, and in the early quarters, quarters two and three in 1977, it boosted activity to relatively high rates of growth.Stripping that away, what we find is that the rebate was having a dragging influence later on as the effect is wearing off.So we take out--what is implicitly happening here is the underlying level of GNP is returning to its longer-run trend rate of growth.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': 'I see, so you really have to look at the real dollars here, rather than the rates, to completely understand.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ZEISEL.', 'text': 'The levels [without the rebates] remained below what they would have been with the rebates, despite the fact that the rate of growth accelerates.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': 'We tend to do this elliptically, to make it simple, but sometimes it gets more complicated.'}]",no,,,,
599,603,19770621_463_2,MR. HOLMES.,"""We can make a big issue of this, and maybe we should make an issue--I have in one or two cases, but--""","I think that's quite right; we are not well informed about what they're doing in the market. We can make a big issue of this, and maybe we should make an issue--I have in one or two cases, but--","[{'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': ""If it were through commercial bank channels, we would know, but it wouldn't be that perfect information. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'It\'s been my strong impression that our record has not been good in getting information elsewhere. We have always taken the position--and quite often they will ask, ""Do you have any objection if we operate in the private market?"" And our answer is basically, ""No, but we would like to keep informed about what you\'re doing."" Any reports about what they are doing are extremely scarce. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'So there would be some slight pressure on the dollar from possible movements into other currencies.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': 'I think it would be slight, but there would be some.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""And you're putting a little more in the Eurodollar market.I think that's quantitatively more important.You are promoting the growth of the Eurodollar market as opposed to domestic markets.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': ""Isn't this function quite well justified, Paul, as part of, in effect, the execution of monetary policy, in that we know instantly what's going on?If it were through commercial bank channels, we would know, but it wouldn't be that perfect information.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'It\'s been my strong impression that our record has not been good in getting information elsewhere.We have always taken the position--and quite often they will ask, ""Do you have any objection if we operate in the private market?""And our answer is basically, ""No, but we would like to keep informed about what you\'re doing.""Any reports about what they are doing are extremely scarce.'}]",yes,no,,,
600,604,19770719_161_1,MR. BAUGHMAN.,"""I'm sorry, I can't hear you.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""Let's move on to Mr. Baughman. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BAUGHMAN.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, a question with respect to the inventory data. You have the impression that these data attempt to take into account the continuing shift of business firms to the so-called LIFO method. Or [do] they just kind of pass that by and [are] based largely on inventory estimates at current market prices? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ZEISEL.', 'text': 'Well, the GNP inventory estimates attempt to make-- '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""However, look, I have no objection whatever to having the staff provide any member of the Committee who wishes it.Each month.Why not?You want it, you are entitled to it.In fact, let's make it mechanical--if you want to, send it to everyone.Some will memorize what is on the chart, others will not even look at the chart.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, we can put that--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""It's a free society, and each of us thinks for himself, thank God.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""We can put that together.I would hope it's quarterly and not monthly, though.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""No.We've talked too much about this.Let's move on to Mr. Baughman.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BAUGHMAN.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, a question with respect to the inventory data.You have the impression that these data attempt to take into account the continuing shift of business firms to the so-called LIFO method.Or [do] they just kind of pass that by and [are] based largely on inventory estimates at current market prices?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ZEISEL.', 'text': 'Well, the GNP inventory estimates attempt to make--'}]",no,,,,
601,605,19771018_245_2,MR. TRUMAN.,"""Yours may be a judgment, mine's a guess.""","No, I, it's only a guess. Yours may be a judgment, mine's a guess. I'll agree that you're not going to see much--","[{'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""I do have one question that we find a little difficult to deal with. And I don't know whether you or the staff would care to comment. We would like to know what the best guesses are as to whether there will be additional protectionist measures over the next 12 to 18 months and how significant they will be, because that will have a rather significant impact both on output and prices. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'My guess would be, or my judgment--we will not have any significant protectionist measures in this country over the next year. Do you have a different view, Mr. Truman? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': 'Well, we find, for example, that in each of the areas that we have been talking about so far today, consumer spending, housing starts, and so on--while a particular number may be low for a month or two, the feedback we keep hearing from our retailers, from our businessmen who are making their plans for capital spending, and so on--very much like Willis Winn reported--we just see things continually coming on line out there that almost seem to belie the general pessimistic statements that we seem to hear from professional forecasters.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Yes, but are you commenting on the economy of your own region or on the national economy?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""No, we're getting this feedback from around the country.And precisely because of our geographic peculiarities, we have asked our own staff as well as our directors to reach out elsewhere to make sure we weren't being overly influenced by the things in our District.I do have one question that we find a little difficult to deal with.And I don't know whether you or the staff would care to comment.We would like to know what the best guesses are as to whether there will be additional protectionist measures over the next 12 to 18 months and how significant they will be, because that will have a rather significant impact both on output and prices.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'My guess would be, or my judgment--we will not have any significant protectionist measures in this country over the next year.Do you have a different view, Mr. Truman?'}]",no,,,,
602,606,19771115_143_1,MR. O'CONNELL.,"""President Baughman, the language in the Court of Appeals, I think, should be read much like in a parental circumstance, where mother says, ""Ask your father.""""","President Baughman, the language in the Court of Appeals, I think, should be read much like in a parental circumstance, where mother says, ""Ask your father."" It doesn't necessarily mean that mother anticipates father's going to give any different answer or relief, but it's a way of mother being finished with the problem. The Court of Appeals, when it suggests you address it to the Congress, is mindful of the fact that there's nothing in its rule that states specifically ""and you may come to us and ask for all the timing you need to seek this of Congress."" The court is aware that its time frame addresses itself only to the certiorari petition of the Supreme Court. I don't know, and I haven't had an opportunity to examine the possibility, that the court wouldn't consider a petition for extended time premised solely on the congressional approach. I will make inquiry in that regard. The rules don't contemplate it, nor was I able to find a previous instance in which the Court of Appeals granted extensions or continued extensions beyond the 30 days premised solely on the attempt to address the Congress.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BAUGHMAN.', 'text': 'I found no reference there to the appeal process. They apparently felt they were rendering a final judgment on an interpretation of present law. Why does not their suggestion to us, that if we want to seek relief that it be through the legislative channel-- '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""Well, why not follow both routes, which is the present plan suggested by Mr. O'Connell? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BAUGHMAN.', 'text': 'Well, why does not that [suggestion by the court] open to us an avenue of request to [the court] and give us adequate time to pursue the legislative process as compared with the time which apparently is built into the legal proceedings, if we choose to go through the legal appeal process and question their legal judgment? '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""In any case, several members of the Committee have not yet spoken, and we'll hear from Messrs. Baughman, Guffey, Morris, and then also from Mr. Jackson.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BAUGHMAN.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, a question to Mr. O'Connell.I, of course read the court's statement strictly as a layman, but it seems to me they have said, if you want relief, it must be through the legislative channel.I found no reference there to the appeal process.They apparently felt they were rendering a final judgment on an interpretation of present law.Why does not their suggestion to us, that if we want to seek relief that it be through the legislative channel--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""Well, why not follow both routes, which is the present plan suggested by Mr. O'Connell?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BAUGHMAN.', 'text': 'Well, why does not that [suggestion by the court] open to us an avenue of request to [the court] and give us adequate time to pursue the legislative process as compared with the time which apparently is built into the legal proceedings, if we choose to go through the legal appeal process and question their legal judgment?'}]",yes,no,,,
603,607,19780117_265_2,MR. LILLY.,"""So we are back where we've been right along and that's dependent on the consumer.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. GARDNER.', 'text': ""I've been waiting a long time; I may never get there. But still there's more to be heard; there's a possibility of pluses occurring in that area. So, I don't object to the staff forecast at all, and I think all told we'd better design our directive in accordance with it because we may have more demands for lending--more demands for funds as the year progresses. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Gardner. Mr. Lilly, please. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GARDNER.', 'text': ""There are obviously technological changes; there are new markets and new activities.Some constraint will be put on imports; I don't know altogether how much.But if I were a businessman, I would see some opportunity and I would have a belief in a longer term for the recovery.I'm not trying to make the second half of the year more questionable, along the lines that Phil has suggested.I don't necessarily agree with that.In all, I can accept the staff forecast and I look at some point to a change in the general disposition of business confidence as well as consumer confidence.I've been waiting a long time; I may never get there.But still there's more to be heard; there's a possibility of pluses occurring in that area.So, I don't object to the staff forecast at all, and I think all told we'd better design our directive in accordance with it because we may have more demands for lending--more demands for funds as the year progresses.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Gardner.Mr. Lilly, please.'}]",no,,,,
604,608,19780418_163_9,MR. GUFFEY.,"""And that is not terribly good because that level of economic activity, coupled with the inflationary pressures, is all going to come crashing together.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'And I hope when we get to the next item on the agenda we will consider monetary policy and not--two years from now, as a result of an action we took today--blame [the consequences] on management or labor or the Arabs. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Thank you. Let's see. We haven't heard Roger. Is there anything you would like to comment on? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': ""We feel that average inflation for l978 will not be as high as the staff projects; however, we foresee a serious escalation in inflation as prices rise next year and the year after.I disagree, at the risk of making myself the most unpopular boy in the class, with some of the observations that were made.I do not believe that the responsibility for the predicament that we are in is necessarily attributable to the unions or to management, to the trade deficit or the depreciation of the dollar, or even to the Arabs.It doesn't accomplish anything to look at past procedures but I do think that monetary policy has to be filtered in as one of the elements of responsibility--or one of the elements of blame, if you want to put it that way--for where we are today.And I hope when we get to the next item on the agenda we will consider monetary policy and not--two years from now, as a result of an action we took today--blame [the consequences] on management or labor or the Arabs.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Thank you.Let's see.We haven't heard Roger.Is there anything you would like to comment on?""}]",yes,yes,sentence,entailment,
605,609,19780516_20_5,CHAIRMAN MILLER.,"""Hearing no dissent, we shall so approve.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""I don't know whether we intended to wait for our normal reports to disclose that we had repaid. But whether we did or not, Dr. Emminger has made a public statement that we have repaid, so that's now in the marketplace. And there was no particular reaction to it, as I gather, Scott. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARDEE.', 'text': ""Not yet. They're wondering where we got the marks. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""Well, as we pay off [the drawings] we are closing out the old line of $2 billion, but the new line of $2 billion we haven't even drawn upon.So we would always find ourselves with at least a $2 billion line.I think the fact that we're repaying they regard as normal.There was an issue at one time of whether we wanted to fund the debt--and I think they might have liked the funding idea--by carrying it over one year.It was the sense of this Committee that that would not be a good idea; we wanted to pay it off after one year.And we pushed fairly firmly in our negotiations for that.The Germans dropped the funding idea without saying anything more about it.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""I don't know whether we intended to wait for our normal reports to disclose that we had repaid.But whether we did or not, Dr. Emminger has made a public statement that we have repaid, so that's now in the marketplace.And there was no particular reaction to it, as I gather, Scott.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARDEE.', 'text': ""Not yet.They're wondering where we got the marks.""}]",no,,,,
606,610,19780516_365_1,MR. ROOS.,"""No sir, I think the idea is excellent.""","No sir, I think the idea is excellent. I wonder whether you would consider one other minor change, and that is in that same paragraph--the second paragraph on page 1, line 5--putting in before the words ""during the period"" these words: ""In view of the recent growth of monetary aggregates with respect to the proposed longer-run ranges during the period"" et cetera. The purpose of that would be to clarify in the public's mind that we are targeting on the longer-run ranges and to dramatize, if you will, or at least to point out, that what we are doing in adjusting our fed funds target is being done with the view of trying to accomplish in the long pull the targeted growth of monetary aggregates. It would read ""in view of the recent growth of monetary aggregates with respect to the proposed longer-run ranges..."" It identifies longer-run ranges and what has happened recently [as what] we're taking [into account with regard to] the fed funds action.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'But I think an interim step to play it in a different way can be constructive. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Yes. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'Would it be in order to make one other suggestion? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Surely, all kinds of [suggestions are welcome] or we can even drop the whole idea. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""I think this is an improvement in language, but I don't think it necessarily will get you out of the PR problem that these 2-month ranges have caused--and it has been [going on] for a long time.I think there's a lot to be said for the Committee moving away from this 2-month structure, and I want to compliment the Philadelphia Fed for the research it has done in this area.It seems to me that this is the question the Committee fundamentally ought to address itself to pretty soon, because I don't think there is any way we can describe these 2-month ranges without the press and the Congress describing them as targets--I don't care what we call them.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Yes, I think you're right, Frank.I think there has to be another session to address this issue in depth.We may or may not solve it.But I think an interim step to play it in a different way can be constructive.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'Would it be in order to make one other suggestion?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Surely, all kinds of [suggestions are welcome] or we can even drop the whole idea.'}]",yes,no,,,
607,611,19780516_398_1,MR. BLACK.,"""Yes, I would criticize our earlier discussion for that ambiguity, Steve.""","Yes, I would criticize our earlier discussion for that ambiguity, Steve. I thought that was one issue we didn't settle, and that's one reason why Chuck and I see it so differently on the appropriate ranges. I see a different trigger point than he does.","[{'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""It's not totally agreed on. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""That affects the interpretations of policy, I think. For example, when the Committee adopted the 3 to 8 percent range, it was not clear to me from the discussion that they wanted to lower the midpoint or whether they were just saying that you don't worry too much if [growth hits the low] end and worry more when it gets to the high end. So it's the limits that got to be more important, even with the aggregates directive or the money market. So, really, I think it depends on a sense of the interpretation of the Committee's wishes, no matter what the form of the directive. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'I think we could take [care] of that very easily by inserting in there ""the midpoints"" of the following ranges or ""the upper and lower limits"" of the following ranges.Otherwise, I think we act at the same trigger point.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Which is the appropriate one?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Well, if you use an aggregates directive it would be the midpoints of the [following] ranges, and if you use a money market it would be the upper and lower limits.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman I think that--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""It's not totally agreed on.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""That affects the interpretations of policy, I think.For example, when the Committee adopted the 3 to 8 percent range, it was not clear to me from the discussion that they wanted to lower the midpoint or whether they were just saying that you don't worry too much if [growth hits the low] end and worry more when it gets to the high end.So it's the limits that got to be more important, even with the aggregates directive or the money market.So, really, I think it depends on a sense of the interpretation of the Committee's wishes, no matter what the form of the directive.""}]",yes,no,,,
608,612,19780620_1_7,CHAIRMAN MILLER.,"""Whether or not it would be wise, possible, desirable, or agreeable to temporarily suspend the ranges for M1 until we can find out what=s happening, I don=t know.""","We do have a busy day and I am going to once again ask your cooperation in trying to stick to the subject matter and I=ll try to do the same. Before we begin, I want to call to your attention a letter I received from Chairman Henry Reuss about the possibility of raising the long-run ranges for the monetary aggregates. I call it to your attention because I=m sure that when I testify in July he will be anxious to know that you have received this and considered it. And, of course, our ranges will come up for consideration in July. I would also mention that I have some concern about how we establish the ranges for M1 in July as we look ahead twelve months, realizing that on November 1 the automatic transfer regulations go into effect and M1 is going to change in some unspecified way. It=s going to be very difficult to guess how to establish ranges for a measure that=s going to be drifting on a string in the period. Whether or not it would be wise, possible, desirable, or agreeable to temporarily suspend the ranges for M1 until we can find out what=s happening, I don=t know. But it=s something you might think about because otherwise we=re just guessing. We don=t know whether the change is going to be x or y.",[],[],yes,yes,sentence,neutral,utterance
609,613,19780620_317_2,CHAIRMAN MILLER.,"""Last month I would have preferred line 27; this month I prefer line 28 because I think we are going to have a very tough time operating--""",Sure. Last month I would have preferred line 27; this month I prefer line 28 because I think we are going to have a very tough time operating--,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'That=s one choice. The second choice is ""close to or beyond"" the upper or lower limits. Normally, I would prefer 27 but in the touchy situation we=re in at this time--with July being such a seasonally unpredictable month--I thought the Desk would be better served to give them the right to operate within our chosen range if they were allowed to go close to the upper or lower limits. If we get to the lower limits, we certainly don=t want to cut the rate; if we get to the upper limits we certainly are all going to be able to express our views but we wouldn=t be compelled to make a [move]. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, if I might add: If the Committee adopts this form of a directive, the staff would anticipate providing these two alternative languages each time just as it provided a money market directive and an aggregates directive. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'This says ""giving approximately equal weight to M1 and M2 if their rates of growth appear to be""--and you have a choice--""significantly above"" or ""significantly below"" their midpoints.That=s one choice.The second choice is ""close to or beyond"" the upper or lower limits.Normally, I would prefer 27 but in the touchy situation we=re in at this time--with July being such a seasonally unpredictable month--I thought the Desk would be better served to give them the right to operate within our chosen range if they were allowed to go close to the upper or lower limits.If we get to the lower limits, we certainly don=t want to cut the rate; if we get to the upper limits we certainly are all going to be able to express our views but we wouldn=t be compelled to make a [move].'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, if I might add: If the Committee adopts this form of a directive, the staff would anticipate providing these two alternative languages each time just as it provided a money market directive and an aggregates directive.'}]",yes,yes,,,
610,614,19780620_393_13,CHAIRMAN MILLER.,"""It may mean that we will use other lines of communication that are more secure.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. DENKLER.', 'text': 'Looking at the risks that are involved and at the comparative expenses of the measures that we could take, I came up with the recommendations that you have seen in my memorandum. It looks as if at the present time the most cost effective measure would be to render the Washington to New York circuit safe from interception and to defer anything beyond that until such time as the technology is better proven. Then we can look at that in any manner that would be appropriate. Right now, frankly, it is something of an unknown. That essentially summarizes the problem. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. DENKLER.', 'text': 'As I said in my memo it can be done, for example, between Washington and New York for about $130,000.To go beyond that takes a giant step as far as the technology and the complexity of the problem are concerned.Tying in a third station requires a mixer--a conference bridge or some device to allow you to extend this beyond [two stations].To go to the entire System, as an example, [would require] a thirteen station network and becomes even more expensive on a large scale.That [cost] would be approaching about $1 million.Looking at the risks that are involved and at the comparative expenses of the measures that we could take, I came up with the recommendations that you have seen in my memorandum.It looks as if at the present time the most cost effective measure would be to render the Washington to New York circuit safe from interception and to defer anything beyond that until such time as the technology is better proven.Then we can look at that in any manner that would be appropriate.Right now, frankly, it is something of an unknown.That essentially summarizes the problem.'}]",no,,,,
611,615,19780919_225_8,MR. ROOS.,"""I might point out that on page 7 of the staff's projections for M1 growth, either alternative A or B would indicate nearly a 2 percentage point drop between the fourth quarter of '78 and the first quarter of '79 in aggregates growth, which I submit would lead to recession.""","Mr. Chairman, there is an advantage to being at the end of the batting order because you can sense a certain consensus of the points of view that emerge from the opinions that were stated. First of all, as far as this short-term scenario is concerned, I think the die is pretty well cast. I would be for alternative B or better--by better I mean lower aggregates growth [ranges]. But I would like to make a suggestion and try it on for size, if I may, Mr. Chairman. It seems to me that there is at least a majority consensus within this group that inflation is a problem and that it would be desirable, if possible, to attempt to slow growth in the aggregates without causing a recession. I think even the most maverick of us would be resistant to anything that would lead to recession. I might point out that on page 7 of the staff's projections for M1 growth, either alternative A or B would indicate nearly a 2 percentage point drop between the fourth quarter of '78 and the first quarter of '79 in aggregates growth, which I submit would lead to recession. I certainly would oppose that. However, I think our next big decision point is at our meeting next month when we set the yearly targets. Assuming that most of us think that it is important to try to slow aggregates growth without recession, I wonder what would be accomplished or not accomplished, Mr. Chairman, if you were to ask each of us to address ourselves in writing--and not more than two pages of writing--to how we feel aggregates growth might be slowed without causing a recession. Certainly, some of us might say it can't be done. Then at least we would state in writing that we don't think growth in the aggregates can be reduced without causing these other severe consequences. There are some of us who think that there is a simple and feasible way to do it. So I just wonder if we couldn't spend a few minutes strategizing rather than getting right into the numbers game at our next meeting. I think this might be accomplished by attempting, with our research people, to put down in two pages or less [our thoughts on this issue]. This would at least cause us to address ourselves to what I think are the fundamental concerns of all of us. I think we tend to miss that target when we get into discussing 8-1/2 versus 9, or 3-1/2 versus 4. I'd like to see next month, unless this is a totally irresponsible suggestion, each of us come forth in summary fashion with how we might address the long-term future--at least the aspect of whether we can reduce aggregates growth without causing recession.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'The banks apparently are planning to price this new service of automatic transfers fairly expensively. If they stick to this, I think automatic transfers are going to kick off with something like the gait of a large turtle. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thanks, Frank. Larry, you not only drew the clean-up position on the circle this morning, but alphabetically you do too. It would not be inappropriate, nonetheless, to stay within the time limit. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""So I would propose a range of 8-1/4 to 9 on the funds rate, moving the target immediately to 8-5/8 and with ranges for M1 of 4-1/2 to 8-1/2 and M2 of 6 to 10.Also, Mr. Chairman, I would not be too worried about a massive impact of automatic transfers on M1 during the next year.I don't think it's going to happen.The New England experience with the NOW account shows that people don't change their deposit habits very readily even when they're offered a remarkably good deal, as they were offered in New England with a no-service-charge NOW account.The banks apparently are planning to price this new service of automatic transfers fairly expensively.If they stick to this, I think automatic transfers are going to kick off with something like the gait of a large turtle.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thanks, Frank.Larry, you not only drew the clean-up position on the circle this morning, but alphabetically you do too.It would not be inappropriate, nonetheless, to stay within the time limit.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,entailment,utterance
612,616,19780919_256_1,MR. BAUGHMAN.,"""Mr. Chairman, would it be appropriate to take a consensus on what I think is essentially Paul Volcker's suggestion of 4 to 8 on the M1 range and the others as you [suggested]?""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': ""So if we were just barely above the midpoint of the range--let's say at 8 percent with a midpoint of 7-1/2--I don't think I would be inclined to do much of anything but wait to see what the next group of numbers showed. And as we got closer to the upper end of the range, sure, [I'd move up] a shade but not to 8-3/4 right away until we hit the upper end. But I'd make sure that we were above 8-1/2, certainly--at 8-5/8 or something like that--as best we can do it. And as you know, we're not perfect. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': ""By immediate, I mean over a few days.We'll see more aggregates on Friday, again a week from Wednesday, and then again a week from Friday.As you know, I don't believe in precipitous movement to the upper end of the range right away because the weekly numbers are very volatile and they can be revised very easily, as we all know.So if we were just barely above the midpoint of the range--let's say at 8 percent with a midpoint of 7-1/2--I don't think I would be inclined to do much of anything but wait to see what the next group of numbers showed.And as we got closer to the upper end of the range, sure, [I'd move up] a shadebut not to 8-3/4 right away until we hit the upper end.But I'd make sure that we were above 8-1/2, certainly--at 8-5/8 or something like that--as best we can do it.And as you know, we're not perfect.""}]",no,,,,
613,617,19781017_189_12,MR. MAYO.,"""The way I read the consensus forecast outside of the Fed, our staff forecast for the next year is one of the highest, and I think we are too high.""","Mark's last point is an interesting one. I've sensed a little of this, too, Mr. Chairman, in a feeling that businessmen in several areas in the Midwest are more anxious this time around to protect their profit margins than they were in the 1973-74 experience. They still feel a little bit wounded from that. And the net effect of the President's anti-inflation program as it is now interpreted in the market may be some tendency toward greater unemployment. This goes in the face of some of the other things that have been said here. I [would note] also that just about every restaurant in suburban Chicago has a ""help wanted"" sign up. They just can't get people, even at the lower skill levels; people just don't want to work in that sort of activity. So we have a mixed bag here. Although there have been some things on the good news front since the last meeting, I feel a little more pessimistic than I did a month ago. Again, [as for] taking solace in figures, I'm somewhat of a cynic in that area. But I am a little concerned. The way I read the consensus forecast outside of the Fed, our staff forecast for the next year is one of the highest, and I think we are too high. I come out with 2 to 2-1/2 percent real growth. I don't think there is more than one chance in ten that we can hold the inflation rate next year under 8 percent. There are too many things that are already built in. And following up on my own [unintelligible] on unemployment here, I think our chances of holding the unemployment rate under 6-1/2 percent next year are rather slim.","[{'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""I think enough of that program has been [leaked] that people have figured out what they think it's going to be. To the extent that in some sense it's more effective in doing something to prices than people currently expect, it seems to me that that also raises the possibility that it could precipitate substantially slower growth than we're expecting. If people's income and profit potential turn out to be less than they now expect them to be, that's precisely the kind of shock that can lead to a retrenchment in economic activity. So while it may have some impact on prices, it may also have an unexpected impact on output and unemployment. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Bob. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""So I'm not any less optimistic than the Board's staff on the inflation figures; in fact it could be somewhat worse.But I also see real growth being constrained by these limitations on supply.That's about where we come out.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Mark.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, what Henry and Phil said is pretty much what I was going to say on the forecast.The only other comment I was going to make was about Dave's comment on the President's program.I think enough of that program has been [leaked] that people have figured out what they think it's going to be.To the extent that in some sense it's more effective in doing something to prices than people currently expect, it seems to me that that also raises the possibility that it could precipitate substantially slower growth than we're expecting.If people's income and profit potential turn out to be less than they now expect them to be, that's precisely the kind of shock that can lead to a retrenchment in economic activity.So while it may have some impact on prices, it may also have an unexpected impact on output and unemployment.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Bob.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,,utterance
614,618,19781017_236_14,MR. JACKSON.,"""With the number of variables that have already been mentioned around the table--and every time somebody speaks they mention another one I hadn't thought of--it strikes me that M1+ is the only reasonable one.""","I would argue that the thing to do would be to drop M1. Several reasons lead me to that. First, we do have a new system of projecting the aggregates and, therefore, anything we do today is only going to [be in] effect, for all intents and purposes, over the next two or three months as a long-range policy guide. And in January the Committee will have to reestablish a policy guide for the future. Second, I have for a long time felt that our concepts of money on which we base policy aren't properly reflective of the underlying purposes for which they were originally designed because technical aspects of privileges of certain types of intermediaries have changed and, therefore, our underlying purposes for measuring money this way have been distorted. And it is my hope that the Committee will modify its definitions, not only of M1 but M2 and M3 all across the line. It would be my hope that we'd go forth and modify those definitions beginning with the new Humphrey- Hawkins concept of reporting--and have a good clean slate to start off. Third, as some of you may recall, it is my judgment that we have unfortunately gotten this Committee into a public relations problem. Having chosen targets that are not indicative of the relationship between nominal GNP and M1, we have been unwilling to adjust them--which a reasoned judgment would lead us to do--because of the public relations consequences. And I think dropping M1 is--pardon my language--the easiest way to go. [I'd go] out the back door instead of the front on this subject and not just change it, drop it. Therefore, the public doesn't know whether we did it or didn't do it and you don't have all these public relations [issues]. So I would argue, when you add all those up together, that [we should look at] the M1 that comes closest to defining the transactional concepts of money that M1 was originally designed to measure. With the number of variables that have already been mentioned around the table--and every time somebody speaks they mention another one I hadn't thought of--it strikes me that M1+ is the only reasonable one. I think that's the fairest to the public, to the extent that the public has asked us to address this subject in the intervening months between now and Humphrey-Hawkins, and this would provide a good transition to a new concept.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': ""And despite advertising campaigns, I think it can be even slower than the NOW accounts in New England. So I don't see why we need to stick our necks out; I would prefer to stick to the [current] M1 definition. I'm [not] enamored of M1 but I would resist changing it now. I'd wait until we are at a better position to do that, maybe with the new system under Humphrey-Hawkins. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Phil Jackson. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': ""I would like to see us keep to the M1 range of 4 to 6-1/2 percent on the grounds that we really don't have much idea as to what's going to go on, not only on automatic transfers and how long it's going to take but we also don't know on New York NOW accounts.Let's keep our straight definition.We're going to change the ground rules in another few months anyway.[Let's] keep it at the 4 to 6-1/2 subject to interpretation as we learn--as we take our temperatures.I don't see any percentage for us, Mr. Chairman, in making an estimate now as to the effect of this.It could be very slow in coming.There is an awful lot of inertia.And despite advertising campaigns, I think it can be even slower than the NOW accounts in New England.So I don't see why we need to stick our necks out; I would prefer to stick to the [current] M1 definition.I'm [not] enamored of M1 but I would resist changing it now.I'd wait until we are at a better position to do that, maybe with the new system under Humphrey-Hawkins.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Phil Jackson.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,entailment,utterance
615,619,19781121_293_1,MR. ALTMANN.,"""I think it's 6.""",I think it's 6.,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Yes, tracking it to see how good we are at guessing. How many of you would support that? 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': '5 out of 10. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""I didn't count myself. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'You want to put it up 1/8 point more, apparently.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""That's right.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Let's find out.There seemed to be quite a majority for a 9-3/4 funds rate at this point.So let's try this one on a straw vote and see what we have.How many of the voting members would accept--I'm not saying would propose but would accept--the proposition I just tried to get out of this?How many would go along with this?""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'Would you just state it again?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'A 5 percent cap on M1, a 6 to 9-1/2 range on M2, and a 9-3/4 to 10 range on fed funds, using 9-3/4 as the initial positioning point and a money market directive--and M1+ just tracked on the side.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'But with a notion that it probably would be within [2] to 6 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Yes, tracking it to see how good we are at guessing.How many of you would support that?1, 2, 3, 4, 5.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': '5 out of 10.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""I didn't count myself.""}]",yes,,,,
616,620,19790206_175_19,MR. BAUGHMAN.,"""That's all I have, Mr. Chainan.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you, John. Ernie. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BAUGHMAN.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, on the general economic picture I think the staff projections are about as defensible a set of projections a s one can put together at the present time, and I would not pick on any particular aspect of them. I have made a concerted effort since our last meeting, in view of my judgment that the prospects were rather good that we would have greater capital expenditures in ' I 9 than was being forecast or than the surveys were suggesting, to engage businessmen in discussion on this point. I have to report that I was unable to persuade even one of them that the prospects for capital expenditures are higher than are currently being forecast. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'In the Dallas area? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""I think we would be well advised to do that, particularly in view of Steve's remarks that if we make too radical a downward shift in the ranges--even though policy within those ranges may, and I hope will, remain relatively on the tight side in view of the inflation problem--we could get some very severe public reactions, setting in train a whole new set of expectations of a credit crunch.So that's why I come out where I do, Mr. Chairman.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you, John. Ernie.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BAUGHMAN.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, on the general economic picture I think the staff projections are about as defensible a set of projections a s one can put together at the present time, and I would not pick on any particular aspect of them.I have made a concerted effort since our last meeting, in view of my judgment that the prospects were rather good that we would have greater capital expenditures in ' I 9 than was being forecast or than the surveys were suggesting, to engage businessmen in discussion on this point.I have to report that I was unable to persuade even one of them that the prospects for capital expenditures are higher than are currently being forecast.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'In the Dallas area?'}]",no,,,,
617,621,19790522_4_1,MR. MAYO.,"""I must add for the benefit of everyone else that this T-shirt is being offered to member banks for $ 2 . 0 0 and to nonmembers for $10.00.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Is it L or K? What's San Francisco? It's L. I thought I was right the first time. So I must follow that up. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'The thing that impressed me about it, if you look at it [closelyl, is that I decided Willis had a message.So the message is that when he speaks today, I will turn this [hourglass] over and there will be no sand to run, so he will immediately be cut off from speaking.And for those of you who behave, I will give you your 3 minutes with the other one.But this one is for you, Willis!'}, {'speaker': 'M R . MAYO.', 'text': ""In proper interbank rivalry, Mr. Chairman, I am deeply hurt that you didn't bring the T-shirt that we gave you.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Oh, yes, I must bring in the T-shirt.But I haven't got it because immediately when I brought it home my wife confiscated it.And she said she wanted one from every Federal Reserve Bankso she could have 1 through 12, or A through L or whatever it is.Is it L or K?What's San Francisco?It's L.I thought I was right the first time.So I must follow that up.""}]",no,,,,
618,622,19790522_407_1,MR. PARTEE.,"""No, I would remain with $500 million.""","No, I would remain with $500 million. MR. ALTMA"". Governor Teeters.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KIMBREL.', 'text': 'MR. ALTMA"". President Mayo. '}, {'speaker': 'M R . MAYO.', 'text': 'Yes. MR. ALTMA"". Governor Partee. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""I have real reservations about going up to $2 billion, based on a very skeptical attitude regarding decisions on what constitutes excessive movements one way or another vis-a-vis what the market is saying.I'd keep it where it is.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Okay.MR. ALTMA"".President Black.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I'd rather cut it in half.I worry about the Constitutional issues on this since the executive branch of the government clearly has the responsibility in the foreign area.And I worry about the point that Chuck raised about criticism we would get from taking any losses on this.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'May I come back with an argument?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Well, it\'s not necessary.The Treasury is with us on this; we\'re working with the Treasury.MR. ALTMA"".Governor Coldwell.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""I'd be willing to go with the billion dollars.And I guess I could be talked into the half billion dollar limit on individual currencies.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'In other words, you are going with the Black proposal.Anybody for the White proposal?MR. ALTMA"".President Kimbrel.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KIMBREL.', 'text': 'Yes.MR. ALTMA"".President Mayo.'}, {'speaker': 'M R . MAYO.', 'text': 'Yes.MR. ALTMA"".Governor Partee.'}]",yes,ambiguous,,,
619,623,19790522_450_3,CHAIRMAN MILLER.,"""We're going to have that problem all over again with surpluses.""","They're accumulating massive profits now because they've sold their products on the 200 basis. If they don't get it down again, we're going to see price cutting in yen and we're going to have another flood of Japanese imports. We're going to have that problem all over again with surpluses. That's the problem.","[{'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""I'm a little concerned that the Japanese seem to be pegging it. They sort of put out a target and I don't want to be dragged in unless we're really sure we want to do it. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': 'Well, although the Prime Minister said ""go back to 200,"" they found they couldn\'t do it. And they spent billions. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'Are we going down to the two hundred--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': ""That I don't know.But certainly the Japanese feel that the yen has depreciated far too much.It's back toward the 2 0 0 level.Whether 2 0 0 is the [right] level I think one has to judge from what happens in the market.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Nancy, I don't think we can peg it.In the present market conditions I think it would be desirable to get it in the 200 to 2 1 0 area.But that's subject to [conditions] changing.I wouldn't hold to that if we felt there were a really massive change because there is no use fighting it if it's really massive.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""I'm a little concerned that the Japanese seem to be pegging it.They sort of put out a targetand I don't want to be dragged in unless we're really sure we want to do it.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': 'Well, although the Prime Minister said ""go back to 200,"" they found they couldn\'t do it.And they spent billions.'}]",yes,no,,,
620,624,19790711_413_1,MR.  PARTEE.,"""Well, I guess I'll take money market this time.""","Well, I guess I'll take money market this time.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""I'm sorry, we just got it down wrong. See, that's why we need to check these. Bob Mayo is for money market. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': 'Yes. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'And Chuck. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""One is that we didn't get a complete indication--though I believe we covered everyone--of preferences for a money market or an aggregates directive.Is it critical to the ranges that we resolve that first?John.~fl.BALLES.1 forgot to mention, Mr. Chairman, a monetary aggregates directive [is my preference].""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Aggregates.Okay.Bob Black, you said a money market directive, I believe.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""I tend to think we ought to have different ranges when we have a money market directive than when we have an aggregates one because the trigger points are different.Others apparently don't see that distinction, which I see.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""It is supposed to be that way.We haven't operated that way much, recently.Phil, you wanted which one?""}, {'speaker': 'MR.    COLDWELL.', 'text': 'Money market.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Money market.And Bones you wanted an aggregates?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KIMBREL.', 'text': 'I have a slight preference for a money [market directive].'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""I'm sorry, we just got it down wrong.See, that's why we need to check these.Bob Mayo is for money market.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'And Chuck.'}]",yes,no,,,
621,625,19790814_248_4,MR. ROOS.,"""I subscribe, Mr. Chairman, to your introductory remarks.""","Yes, sir. I purposely waited until the end of the batting order because up until the last few expressions of opinion I was so wholeheartedly in agreement with everything that was said that I didn't want to express that agreement until everyone was committed verbally to that position. I didn't want to drive others off! I subscribe, Mr. Chairman, to your introductory remarks. I think they express the best analysis of a longer-range strategy that I've heard since I've been a member of this group. You have publicly expressed your determination to do whatever possible with monetary policy over a long range. Certainly we aren't going to bring inflation down in a 6-month period. And certainly we're never going to bring inflation down if we act on a month-to-month, quarter-to-quarter [basis of] fine-tuning. I think it's terribly important, as so many others here have said, that we do something symbolically today to reinforce the credibility of the policies that you have expressed in the short time you've been Chairman. Specifically, I would favor at least the alternative C program. I think we have to move toward widening the fed funds range and freeing interest rates to move more freely. I would perhaps go beyond that, as Mark Willes expressed, by reducing the monetary aggregate ranges even below those in alternative C. But I would not recommend anything more of [unintelligible] than that shown under alternative C.","[{'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""And I'd urge the Committee to be constantly watching the developments in the economy for the turning point at which we can back off. There will not come a time in the next six months at a very minimum in which we can say we have won the fight against inflation and therefore we can lower the rates. I'm sure that will be an argument down the line--that we still have a raging inflation and therefore we should not react to domestic developments. So I would go along with the recommendation in alternative B, with some adjustment in the ranges. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Roos. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""I don't want to do very much now.I don't think it's going to have any impact on the inflation rate.I can't really believe it's going to do a great deal in the international market because what went on in the international area was not connected to underlying economic events but was basically a reaction to political events.However, a minor tightening at this time--I'm saying 10-1/4 to 11 percent on the funds range--I would find acceptable.And I'd urge the Committee to be constantly watching the developments in the economy for the turning point at which we can back off.There will not come a time in the next six months at a very minimum in which we can say we have won the fight against inflation and therefore we can lower the rates.I'm sure that will be an argument down the line--that we still have a raging inflation and therefore we should not react to domestic developments.So I would go along with the recommendation in alternative B, with some adjustment in the ranges.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Roos.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,entailment,utterance
622,626,19791006_330_1,MR. BALLES.,"""Mr. Chairman, may I make a strong plea that you allow the rest of us to get in on this [discount rate action]?""",,"[{'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'We can get them on Sunday M F t . MAYO. We could probably get some of them, but with it being a long weekend in Chicago-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""It's not a good idea if you are going to wait until Monday. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Since you've already got the [request on the discount] rate. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Oh, I don't know what we do in these two days.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'Play it by ear.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Play it by ear the first two days.And one of those two days is a Wednesday, so--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': 'Would you expect to get action from us and our boards of directors on Monday?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, we have a request for a [discount rate] increase of 1 percentage point, so the Board can act.And I still don't know whether we are going to be making this announcement this afternoon or not.If we are, I don't know what you can do [about contacting your directors] on Saturday, anyway.If we are not going to announce until Monday, I still don't know what you can do because I don't know whether we want to--""}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'We can get them on Sunday M F t .MAYO.We could probably get some of them, but with it being a long weekend in Chicago--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""It's not a good idea if you are going to wait until Monday.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Since you've already got the [request on the discount] rate.""}]",yes,yes,sentence,,
623,627,19791120_420_2,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""That's a straight compromise.""",M2 I think would be 8-1/4 percent. That's a straight compromise.,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'If November comes in weak, we\'d probably be satisfied with ""C."" And we\'d also start out with a $1.7 billion initial borrowing assumption. Let\'s just take those two at the moment. '}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""I don't think Steve's alternative is well specified. It would be 5-1/2 percent for M1 and what would M2 be? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': '8 - 5 / 8 , I suppose, is a straight compromise.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': ""My whole point on all of this is that 8-l/2 percent works in the direction of Steve's suggestion.Why don't we make it 5 percent, 8-l/2 percent, and 1 - 1 / 2 .""}, {'speaker': 'MR.   COLDWELL.', 'text': ""That's what we have.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': '8-1/2 and 7-1/4 percent, I suppose.'}, {'speaker': 'M R . PARTEE.', 'text': 'M3 is not--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'And $1.7 billion on borrowing.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'And the fed funds range the way it is.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'All of these leave the fed funds range where it is.The alternative is alternative B with the understanding that [the specifications in ""B""] in some sense are the maximum, within the limits that we can maneuver these things anyway.If November comes in weak, we\'d probably be satisfied with ""C.""And we\'d also start out with a $1.7 billion initial borrowing assumption.Let\'s just take those two at the moment.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""I don't think Steve's alternative is well specified.It would be 5-1/2 percent for M1 and what would M2 be?""}]",no,,,,
624,628,19800109_401_4,MR. KICHLINE.,"""It is possible that we will be surprised.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""I'm not aware of that. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Maybe I just picked up the idea. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""In effect, Jim, what you've done by the revisions this time is to push the recession into 1980; 1979 is no longer a recession year. What are the chances of [a recession] being deferred another six months? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""That's not his projection. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'We expect that the program in practice has been eased from the restraints of a year ago and that at best it will have a small damping influence, but not [much].'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Your projection of the average earnings increase is up into that guideline, isn't it?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""Yes, we have compensation in total running in the 9-1/2 percent area, so it's at the top end of that program.I might also note, though, that this is a fairly heavy bargaining year.We face [labor negotiations by] the steel workers, communication workers, some longshoremen, and the aluminum can industry; so 1980 is not an easy year in terms of major collective bargaining settlements.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Did I see someplace that nonunion wages are now rising faster than union wages?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""I'm not aware of that.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Maybe I just picked up the idea.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""In effect, Jim, what you've done by the revisions this time is to push the recession into 1980; 1979 is no longer a recession year.What are the chances of [a recession] being deferred another six months?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""That's not his projection.""}]",no,,,,
625,629,19800205_374_3,MR. WILLES.,"""We ought to respond less rather than more, the greater the uncertainty about the outlook.""","I would think, if we agree that the outlook is very uncertain, that rather than arguing for more flexibility we would argue for less. That's because if the time pattern of the economy is very unpredictable, then there's no way we can respond to change it in a predictable way and, therefore, we ought not to be responding. We ought to respond less rather than more, the greater the uncertainty about the outlook. As a consequence, unlike Nancy's and John's earlier suggestion that we do all we can to preserve our flexibility, I would say just the opposite. I think we ought to pick a path that we want to follow for the long term and stick to that path as long as we can unless we receive major information that suggests we're way out of [line] for one reason or another. Of course, rational expectations would say that even if we got such information, it's not clear we could do anything about it and, therefore, we ought not to respond. Having said all that, obviously, I would much prefer the specifications of alternative III. That looks like a very large drop for M-1B from [growth of] 8 percent in 1979 to [a range with an upper limit of] 6-1/2 percent in 1980. But the Bluebook says on the previous page that for the last six months M-1B growth has only been 6.1 percent, so the drop isn't as big as it might appear from the [table] on page 6. So, I would go with alternative III. I must say I am in the group that thinks the range is too wide. I would be concerned if money [growth] dropped, assuming we are measuring anything corresponding to money, down to 3 percent. On the other hand, I would certainly hate to see it above 6 percent. So, I'd prefer a narrower range but would not want growth to go above 6 percent on M-1A or 6-1/2 percent on M-1B.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Oh, I don't disagree with that. It's a question of whether one thinks this [degree] of weakness in the economy is reasonable. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""That's right. Now, what I find most puzzling--and I will copy one of Fred Schultz's lines, which I always thought was mine, and that is that I have a very simple mind-- ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'Well, some of us will agree with that! '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""Thank you, Mr. Chairman.I just couldn't disagree more with some of the comments I have heard and I agree entirely with some others.Chuck and I have this running discussion about how we finance nominal GNP.He has his view.My view is that if you try to do [it his way], you just chase your tail.If in fact there is a relationship between money and inflation, by persistently trying to finance nominal GNP we end up generating more inflation--even at an accelerating rate--which therefore we have to finance and so on.So I would hope we would not take that[route].""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Oh, I don't disagree with that.It's a question of whether one thinks this [degree] of weakness in the economy is reasonable.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""That's right.Now, what I find most puzzling--and I will copy one of Fred Schultz's lines, which I always thought was mine, and that is that I have a very simple mind--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'Well, some of us will agree with that!'}]",yes,yes,utterance,entailment,utterance
626,630,19800205_723_2,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""[We can comment on] any tentative feeling that we have about the second quarter but we don't have to put the second quarter into the directive, and I think it's probably inappropriate to put the second quarter in the directive at this point.""","There's a question of procedure we have to decide upon, which is whether to reiterate or change the targets that we had for the first quarter. [We can comment on] any tentative feeling that we have about the second quarter but we don't have to put the second quarter into the directive, and I think it's probably inappropriate to put the second quarter in the directive at this point. So, if people agree with this, the only thing we have to have in the directive is a number for the first quarter.","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""That's why. It has money market funds-- ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'But it has been running higher than 6-1/2 percent, apparently, because you have the implied growth for January to March of 5-3/4 percent. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Yes. The actual growth in M2 is 8.3 percent because, among other reasons, we had this very sharp expansion in money market funds in January, which we've been expecting to slow. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'It was the old M2--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That target was 7 percent; that's what confused me.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""That's right.And it is in fact running a little low relative to the target.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'But you think this 6-1/2 percent that you have here for the new M2 is roughly consistent with the 7 percent that we had on the old M2?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""I would guess it's a shade lower because the old M2 is running a shade lower.It's either consistent or a shade lower.I haven't worked it out in detail month by month on money market funds.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'But it contains very different components.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Oh yes, that's right.That's why.It has money market funds--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'But it has been running higher than 6-1/2 percent, apparently, because you have the implied growth for January to March of 5-3/4 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Yes.The actual growth in M2 is 8.3 percent because, among other reasons, we had this very sharp expansion in money market funds in January, which we've been expecting to slow.""}]",yes,no,,,
627,631,19800422_103_3,MR. AXILROD.,"""It's true that we have them running down their liquid assets.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Over the long run, of course, we could probably foresee some business desire to restructure balance sheets, but that's a shifting of the borrowing patterns. We simply don't see any bulge, really, in credit demands. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WINN.', 'text': ""But if you talk to some of these businessmen, they don't have [unintelligible] they can hold out without having to come back in. They are out now. Rates have scared them off and they are using up what they have. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WINN.', 'text': 'Now, this may or may not happen, but there is also the possibility, it seems to me--with interest rates turning a bit and attitudes changing a little--of a rather substantial increase in borrowing in the May-June period as well.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'We actually have projected a rather sharp drop in borrowing in the second quarter, largely because we assume a very substantial liquidation of liquid assets built up by corporations.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WINN.', 'text': 'But that runs out eventually.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""That's right.So the sharp drop levels off, but with borrowings at a lower level.And, of course, we have some weakening in the consumer demand area.So, we don't have any substantial build-up in borrowing demand ahead of us.Over the long run, of course, we could probably foresee some business desire to restructure balance sheets, but that's a shifting of the borrowing patterns.We simply don't see any bulge, really, in credit demands.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WINN.', 'text': ""But if you talk to some of these businessmen, they don't have [unintelligible] they can hold out without having to come back in.They are out now.Rates have scared them off and they are using up what they have.""}]",no,,,,
628,632,19800520_400_3,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""I don't know for sure whether it will.""","Yes, [we'd consult] before we get there, figuring that that's more than a full [percentage point] drop in the federal funds rate. It may well come next week. I don't know for sure whether it will. It will depend on what our money supply figures show, so we don't know yet. And the significance of what rate we put in there is probably what Roger said--it [determines] when we need a formal vote of the Committee to lower the rate as opposed to a consultation. Well, let's just try it out.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""In a completely symmetrical world, but I'm not playing in a symmetrical world right now. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Well, you have taken the fed funds range that is consistent with the staff's alternative B. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'With ""B."" That is correct. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'In fact, if you want to make the switch, I think we could do it the other way. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'And you want to put in a 9 percent funds rate with consultation at 9-1/2 percent, did you say? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Well, 7-1/2 to 8 percent [for M-1B] would be consistent with 7 to 7-1/2 percent for M-1A. And for M2 I would say 7-3/4 to 8-1/4 percent would be consistent.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'So you are going the alternative A route?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'This is broadly consistent with alternative A, with a willingness to overshoot.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'If fortune should smile on us.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""At this point I don't know what fortune""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'What is the M2 consistent with that?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Around 8 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""We're talking about figures for the actual path.That's not quite the equivalent of the figures [mentioned here], which are for a longer period.We're just talking about now through the meeting date in July.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'Logic would have [unintelligible].'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""In a completely symmetrical world, but I'm not playing in a symmetrical world right now.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Well, you have taken the fed funds range that is consistent with the staff's alternative B.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'With ""B."" That is correct.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'In fact, if you want to make the switch, I think we could do it the other way.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'And you want to put in a 9 percent funds rate with consultation at 9-1/2 percent, did you say?'}]",yes,yes,utterance,,utterance
629,633,19800709_50_2,VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.,"""I assume the members of this group are aware that there is one quasi-phony component in our current account calculation.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""And they haven't had much improvement on the inflation front, although in some countries they've had a little. On the other hand, they're becoming a little worried about a business slowdown and perhaps a world recession and [there is] some sentiment that easing might be a good idea. But nobody wants to be first. Nobody wants to show the white flag on the inflation front. So they're quite ambivalent. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Some people [expect] a surplus this year.If one just looks at current accounts, we don't look too bad; in fact, we look very good.But people obviously are looking at other things, too.Of course, it's affected by the recession.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'What about recession?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I think a major question is whether or when we can expect some interest rate declines in the rest of the world.[Foreign officials] are a little ambivalent about it.They're in the same position we are.They want to maintain this psychological posture of getting on top of inflation and not appearing to yield to it.And they haven't had much improvement on the inflation front, although in some countries they've had a little.On the other hand, they're becoming a little worried about a business slowdown and perhaps a world recession and [there is] some sentiment that easing might be a good idea.But nobody wants to be first.Nobody wants to show the white flag on the inflation front.So they're quite ambivalent.""}]",no,,,,
630,634,19800916_353_7,VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.,"""When I talk to people in the markets, they are not questioning our credibility or the steadiness of our policy at the moment.""",,"[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""I'll try to be almost as brief as Governor Rice. I think we can best hit the balance we're looking for, in terms of both the credibility of policy as perceived by the markets and the country on one hand and our concern about aborting the modest recovery, by an intermediate solution. I'd like to suggest something that isn't too different from what Chuck Partee suggested. I think we ought to have borrowing of $700 million, 4-1/4 percent for M-1A, 6-1/2 percent for M-1B, and 8-3/4 percent for M2. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'What was that last one? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'That will give us an opportunity to look at September and will give us the kind of flexibility we need to get where we want to go through the end of the year.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Rice.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I favor alternative A for the reasons set forth by Governors Teeters, Gramley, Partee, and Schultz.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'End of statement?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'End of statement.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I didn't support alternative A.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': ""I know you didn't, but you gave reasons for favoring alternative A.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Solomon.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""I'll try to be almost as brief as Governor Rice.I think we can best hit the balance we're looking for, in terms of both the credibility of policy as perceived by the markets and the country on one hand and our concern about aborting the modest recovery, by an intermediate solution.I'd like to suggest something that isn't too different from what Chuck Partee suggested.I think we ought to have borrowing of $700 million, 4-1/4 percent for M-1A, 6-1/2 percent for M-1B, and 8-3/4 percent for M2.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'What was that last one?'}]",no,,,,
631,635,19801219_476_3,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""I don't know which you have in mind.""","Well, you obviously raise an important point. It's a substantive point as to whether we do want to avoid further increases in interest rates and also a presentational point that even if we do, do we want to say it this way. I don't know which you have in mind. As I said, I would put in a softening kind of phrase such as ""are inconsistent with fluctuations in the federal funds rate in a general range of 16 to 20 percent""--if that's what it is--""taken over a period of time"" or something like that to avoid any implication that we're going to sit on it on a day-by-day basis, whether it's above or below. But I don't know whether that helps you very much.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': ""I'm sure we need that sentence. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""I don't think it tips our hand. It just says if it happens, it happens and we won't resist it. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'I think the last sentence, with the expression of a narrower fed funds range, could be terribly disturbing to some who might view it as a signal that indeed we are moving toward greater emphasis even in the short run on targeting on interest rates. If we narrow the range and set the upper limit at 20 percent--and we are over that now--with a lower limit of 16 percent, I think, that will wave a red flag to those who are suspicious of a possible tendency to move back to our old procedures. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""This is a little different than the way I had it written, but that proved incomprehensible to Mr. Axilrod.I think my way had a little less sense that we were expecting [a shortfall].It was mainly that [a shortfall would be acceptable] if it proved consistent or something like that, though I recognize that's obscure.Just how that's written is a point of difficulty, I think.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': ""I'm sure we need that sentence.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""I don't think it tips our hand.It just says if it happens, it happens and we won't resist it.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'I think the last sentence, with the expression of a narrower fed funds range, could be terribly disturbing to some who might view it as a signal that indeed we are moving toward greater emphasis even in the short run on targeting on interest rates.If we narrow the range and set the upper limit at 20 percent--and we are over that now--with a lower limit of 16 percent, I think, that will wave a red flag to those who are suspicious of a possible tendency to move back to our old procedures.'}]",no,,,,
632,636,19810203_410_1,VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.,"""I don't know how important all of this is.""",I don't know how important all of this is.,"[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""It seems to me, however, that the market is going to interpret your suggestion in a very different way. If the fed funds rate on the day of the Committee meeting is 17.42 percent and we say 300 basis points on either side, the newspapers would say that they have figured out that the Fed's range is 14.42 to 20.42 percent. It makes a lot more sense to say it's 14 to 20 percent. I think that's what they're going to do. Then if we start playing games and say we're going to narrow the range down to 200 basis points on either side because we don't want rates to go up too far, they're surely going to say we are playing the rates instead of the money supply. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'But in an exceptional case, such as Nancy referred to when rates are at a very high level, we might want to constrain them.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': ""Since we meet on average every 5 to 6 weeks--I'm just trying to remember the history of the market [rate movements]--that would have triggered a discussion on couple of occasions, right?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""It seems to me, however, that the market is going to interpret your suggestion in a very different way.If the fed funds rate on the day of the Committee meeting is 17.42 percent and we say 300 basis points on either side, the newspapers would say that they have figured out that the Fed's range is 14.42 to 20.42 percent.It makes a lot more sense to say it's 14 to 20 percent.I think that's what they're going to do.Then if we start playing games and say we're going to narrow the range down to 200 basis points on either side because we don't want rates to go up too far, they're surely going to say we are playing the rates instead of the money supply.""}]",yes,yes,-5 sentences,neutral,sentence
633,637,19810331_350_3,MR. CORRIGAN.,"""When I put it together, in terms of policy, I would not be allergic to giving a little more weight to M2 in line with one of the points that Steve made.""","Well, whether or not it is, I think it is. It just adds further weight to the argument that M-1B is giving us some false signals here. When I put it together, in terms of policy, I would not be allergic to giving a little more weight to M2 in line with one of the points that Steve made. Also, the whole [situation], at least in my mind, argues in the direction of doing the best we can now to keep well within the targets because later on I think it's only going to get harder.","[{'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""Well, but they're in M2. I don't think it makes-- ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'So are money market funds. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'Well, we can dispute that, but I think this understatement of M-1B is very real. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I don't know. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""It doesn't mean anything, but just as an example: If you took the growth in money market funds over December to March and just added in one-tenth of the growth to M-1B, that raises the growth of M-1B for the quarter to 6.2 percent.And that, again, doesn't say anything about this other matter that Mr. Balles was pointing to earlier.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': 'How would you rationalize doing that?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""No rationalization.It's just a guess, just a number.You just take one-tenth of the growth in the money market funds phased in at the rate at which they actually grew and add that into M-1B.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""But you should have taken two-tenths of the decline in savings accounts and added that in, too.You didn't do that.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'Why should I do that?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Because savings accounts are transactions balances also.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""Well, but they're in M2.I don't think it makes--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'So are money market funds.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'Well, we can dispute that, but I think this understatement of M-1B is very real.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I don't know.""}]",yes,yes,sentence,,
634,638,19810707_706_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Inevitably we have to [unintelligible].""","Inevitably we have to [unintelligible]. Well, let me try this. Have I mentioned all the variables: 7 percent, $1.5 billion, 15 to 21 percent, and a strong M2 caveat.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""The figures come in a little late. But if M2 is running 9-1/2 percent--and we won't even know it [currently]--that's within our range of tolerance. If it's clearly running high, it's very important-- ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""But shouldn't we take a look as to why it's running high? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't know what the arithmetic is, but I presume the nontransactions part of M2 could run at approximately 10 percent with this kind of M1 figure.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""That's right; it's about 75 percent of M2.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""What about Chuck's point about the lifting of the Regulation Q ceilings on the longer-term CDs?We could get a surge in some of those.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': ""Yes, but we're likely to have some offsetting weakness in the money market funds.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Or it could come out of the securities markets.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'What we need is an M-2A and M-2B--a transactions component, shift adjusted--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Shift-adjusted M2 numbers.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'Updated seasonally.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, I don't intend this to be quite as precise as you're talking about.We can't judge M2 that closely.The figures come in a little late.But if M2 is running 9-1/2 percent--and we won't even know it[currently]--that's within our range of tolerance.If it's clearly running high, it's very important--""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""But shouldn't we take a look as to why it's running high?""}]",yes,yes,utterance,ambiguous,
635,639,19811006_231_2,MR. AXILROD.,"""I said the nontransactions component will rise relative to M-1B in this present environment.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I understand all that; M2 doesn't decline the way it used to when we would run into deposit ceilings. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Well, no, I didn't mean that. What I meant was that interest rates move more rapidly than they used to. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""And interest rates may move more rapidly as a result of that. I don't understand that it follows that M2 is in some sense artificially swelled by this and gives you a-- ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""If the return on these instruments that are in money deposits doesn't go up, then you'll get restraint on money relatively easily, in effect, because people will shift out of deposits into something else.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""You'll get restraint on M2 relatively easily.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""If the money definition covers only things that have market interest rates on them, then as we hold back on reserves in the face of [strong] money demand, market rates tend to go up.The banks and other financial institutions raise their offering rates on these deposits so that the gap between the market rates and the deposit rates, in effect, doesn't change very much.People still demand those things because that gap hasn't changed.We have to hold back on reserves even further; that forces rates up more.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I understand all that; M2 doesn't decline the way it used to when we would run into deposit ceilings.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Well, no, I didn't mean that.What I meant was that interest rates move more rapidly than they used to.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""And interest rates may move more rapidly as a result of that.I don't understand that it follows that M2 is in some sense artificially swelled by this and gives you a--""}]",no,,,,
636,640,19811006_280_3,MR. FORD.,"""Even if we put it at a tiny fraction of the money market funds, we would say that M-1B has been somewhat stronger than it appears in the adjusted figures.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""The economy is soft; in some sense in the very short run there may be some risk of it getting softer rather than stronger. But there is a major risk, which a number of people have alluded to, of a yo-yo performance of the economy. That isn't going to be very helpful in terms of our longer-range objectives if it gets up a head of steam again in a time perspective of 6 months or so. Having said that much, let's proceed. Mr. Ford. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't have much faith in any of these projections, I must say, as to the statistical relationships between borrowings and the money supply or interest rates or whatever.I think we have to assume that those relationships are highly unstable, to say the least.And the probability distribution around these estimates, if they are perfect as a measure of the central tendency, is enormously wide.I don't think anybody really has the faintest idea what the money supply is going to do on its own in the next month or three months.And I think we have to take that into account in making our decisions.The volatility of interest rates is a problem.The economy is soft; in some sense in the very short run there may be some risk of it getting softer rather than stronger.But there is a major risk, which a number of people have alluded to, of a yo-yo performance of the economy.That isn't going to be very helpful in terms of our longer-range objectives if it gets up a head of steam again in a time perspective of 6 months or so.Having said that much, let's proceed.Mr. Ford.""}]",yes,yes,sentence,,
637,641,19811117_554_1,MS. TEETERS.,"""I still don't like the phrase about phasing into next year.""",I still don't like the phrase about phasing into next year.,"[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""That we've gone completely monetarist? ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think for sure, at this point. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'What is it, 75 percent of-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Milton Friedman has finally won! '}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': ""Let's try it and see what happens! ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't consider that entirely a bad idea.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': ""If that's what you want.""}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Fred, did you hear that?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""Why do we need to specify?One sort of inference [about] interest rates here is the borrowing assumption.The Chairman may consult the Committee, so the funds rate constraint isn't even a binding action.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'What is the substance of your comment?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""I'm wondering why we need to expose ourselves to the charge that we're managing interest rates when we're not doing that?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Do you mean just take out the funds rate reference?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Take out the whole sentence?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'Take out the whole sentence.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""That's certainly widening it!""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Nobody is really going to believe that we're indifferent.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't know what people would conclude from our taking out the sentence entirely at this point.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""They'd never get it from Henry.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""That we've gone completely monetarist?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think for sure, at this point.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'What is it, 75 percent of--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Milton Friedman has finally won!'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': ""Let's try it and see what happens!""}]",yes,no,,,
638,642,19811222_151_5,MR. ROOS.,"""So, what we do will have a direct bearing, at least as we look at it, rather than just psychological [effects on] decisions that businessmen might be making.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': 'I have heard of a few instances of a little price concession, but there is not a lot moving right now. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That is the story I hear when people from farm areas talk to me: that there isn't much movement in the price but there sure aren't any sales, and don't try that price too hard. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""In our District, when land that was valued at $3500 to $4000 an acre comes up for sale, the price goes down; and they pull it off the market at $2700 or $2800 an acre. The price just doesn't clear the market. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Roos. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': 'But the question is how comfortable they feel, even though they have the money, about how long can they stay with [agricultural borrowers] in the expectation of a repayment because of the price problem.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'What about the land prices?Again, looking at the places where most of the problem loans tend to be, people had gotten pretty extended on land.Are you beginning to see a break in your land prices?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': 'I think so, a break in the sense that the sales of farm lands are going down.I have heard of a few instances of a little price concession, but there is not a lot moving right now.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That is the story I hear when people from farm areas talk to me: that there isn't much movement in the price but there sure aren't any sales, and don't try that price too hard.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""In our District, when land that was valued at $3500 to $4000 an acre comes up for sale, the price goes down; and they pull it off the market at $2700 or $2800 an acre.The price just doesn't clear the market.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Roos.'}]",yes,,,,
639,643,19811222_327_4,MR. CORRIGAN.,"""At least as far out as one can reasonably see, cash-type investments are probably going to continue to look pretty good.""","Anyway, as I said, unless we get a little luckier on prices, I think those targets could be ambitious even allowing for demand shifts. On M2 I find myself attracted to Governor Partee's comments yesterday. I think there is a possibility that we could see some rebound in savings in the fundamental underlying sense next year. At least as far out as one can reasonably see, cash-type investments are probably going to continue to look pretty good. And I, at least, am inclined to the view that the IRA account could be a bigger factor than most of the discussion around the table has suggested so far. It is very attractive to begin with, but the fact that so many companies are going ahead with payroll deduction plans will make it such a simple thing and so attractive from an ease of transactions point of view that that could really generate some momentum in these accounts as the year unfolds. I must say I am perplexed as to what that means. I might even be prepared to make an argument that IRA accounts don't belong in M2 because they are a much more permanent type of savings than are the other [components of] M2. I get that feeling a little more so when I recognize that it is only the pure coincidence of who is managing an IRA account that is going to determine whether it ends up in the banking system or someplace else. The distinction is pretty arbitrary as to whether a particular IRA ends up as a component of M2 or in a money market instrument of some kind or another. And I would at least raise the question of whether they belong in M2 at all. But if we have them in M2, they alone could create some real problems in terms of the upper limit of the target for M2. That would lead me a bit in the direction that Governor Gramley suggested yesterday even though I am hesitant, to put it mildly, to change any of these targets, although they were only tentatively agreed upon by the Committee in July. That is it.","[{'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'Incidentally, Jim, what was the CPI this morning? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'It is up 0.5 [for November] compared to the 0.4 in October. Food prices rose 0.2, the same as in October. And housing performed very well; it was only up 0.4, and that reflects the sizable increase in the mortgage rate and a 3/4 percent decline in home prices. On average, it is a good report. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'But even if that is the case, I still have some concern that later in the year the targets that we have for M1-B, even allowing for some further shift adjustment, could prove very difficult to hit if the economy were to pick up the way the staff is projecting, recognizing that there are an awful lot of private forecasts around that would place the economy stronger in the second half of the year than the staff has.So, my point here is that even under the best of circumstances those targets for narrow money, particularly as we get out in the year, will prove to be ambitious.And in fact it may be that the only way they will prove workable in that timeframe is in association with a price performance that is a little better perhaps than is currently being forecast.Incidentally, Jim, what was the CPI this morning?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'It is up 0.5 [for November] compared to the 0.4 in October.Food prices rose 0.2, the same as in October.And housing performed very well; it was only up 0.4, and that reflects the sizable increase in the mortgage rate and a 3/4 percent decline in home prices.On average, it is a good report.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
640,644,19820202_183_4,MR. AXILROD.,"""That is the question, mostly, that we are trying to answer.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""It could be increased liquidity preference in a period of uncertainty. The more I mull over why it's going on, the more I just have a hunch that we may be asking the wrong question in a sense. I recall a debate around this table some years ago in the mid-1970s--I can't remember exactly when it was, perhaps 1976 or 1977--when we were agonizing over an excessively rapid and unexpected rate of monetary growth and why it was occurring. I think it was Chairman Burns who said at that time: Well, it's very simple; we've been putting too many reserves into the market. And I wonder if that isn't really the basic answer when everything is said and done. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""We couldn't find any good reasons for this explosion we've had in NOW accounts in the Twelfth District.Our banks weren't very helpful in throwing any light on why it has occurred; it just seems to be happening.Maybe it goes back to the thought that you expressed; it could be a belated reaction to interest rates having fallen late last fall.It could be increased liquidity preference in a period of uncertainty.The more I mull over why it's going on, the more I just have a hunch that we may be asking the wrong question in a sense.I recall a debate around this table some years ago in the mid-1970s--I can't remember exactly when it was, perhaps 1976 or 1977--when we were agonizing over an excessively rapid and unexpected rate of monetary growth and why it was occurring.I think it was Chairman Burns who said at that time: Well, it's very simple; we've been putting too many reserves into the market.And I wonder if that isn't really the basic answer when everything is said and done.""}]",no,,,,
641,645,19820330_165_7,MR. STERNLIGHT.,"""There could be that kind of cycling, but that might be a minor variation around the more underlying trend we're trying to achieve.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': ""A number of them, like Larry Klein, were very sympathetic to us. But it was remarkable how many--not just the standard old line monetarists--had questions about this. The way it came out from some of them was this: If you say there will be wider variations in interest rates, should you try to control the [monetary growth] path in some way to take some of the fluctuation out? Implicit in that statement is the hidden assumption that we're now successfully operating counter-cyclically in fine-tuning the economy, and they question whether that can be so. I guess the question is: Do you really feel that you're working against the swings in rates so that if we somehow had smoothed the [monetary growth] path it would have produced more violent fluctuations in interest rates than we've seen? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WINN.', 'text': ""Thinking about Peter's recitation of the policy actions taken over the past months, and then looking back a bit over history, how do you answer the question: Has the policy caused or prevented short-run variability in monetary growth?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': ""Yes, this question came up, not just from the usual monetarists but from a variety of sources when we had a huge group of people at our Atlanta conference.A number of them, like Larry Klein, were very sympathetic to us.But it was remarkable how many--not just the standard old line monetarists--had questions about this.The way it came out from some of them was this: If you say there will be wider variations in interest rates, should you try to control the [monetary growth] path in some way to take some of the fluctuation out?Implicit in that statement is the hidden assumption that we're now successfully operating counter-cyclically in fine-tuning the economy, and they question whether that can be so.I guess the question is: Do you really feel that you're working against the swings in rates so that if we somehow had smoothed the [monetary growth] path it would have produced more violent fluctuations in interest rates than we've seen?""}]",no,,,,
642,646,19820518_245_3,MR. BLACK.,"""It seems to me that there are two main reasons why rates are staying up.""","Mr. Chairman, I think everyone agrees that the economy is in a bad predicament now and that lower interest rates are a prerequisite for any kind of sustained recovery. But where we have the point of difference is how we think we ought to get those rates down. It seems to me that there are two main reasons why rates are staying up. The first would be the uncertainties concerning what might be done by Congress on the present budget impasse; I guess all we can do in that area is to jawbone, as I think you've done very effectively from time-to-time, with the rest of us chiming in whenever we could. But the second reason is a fear that the System at some point may be forced toward some materially easy monetary policy. And against this background, I think the best way to reduce inflationary pressures, and with them interest rates, is to get these monetary aggregates back within the target ranges and keep them there for the balance of the year. So, I think we ought to stay with ""B,"" which we adopted last time. But I would regard that ""B"" part on M1 as the upper limit. I would be glad to accept maintaining the language in the directive about a lower rate or an actual decline in M1, if that's accompanied by substantially reduced pressures in the money markets. I have two other points. The first is that I would be a little concerned about leaving in the sentence in the directive regarding M2--the second sentence in the operational paragraph. We included that last time mainly to cover the effects of the tax-related flows into M1, and we are now well past the tax date. And I wouldn't want to see M1 come in above the ""B"" specifications even if M2 were on path. The second point is that paragraph 10 in the Bluebook states that the staff's best estimate is that an $800 million borrowing level would be compatible with ""B."" The borrowing level in the first four-week period of our intermeeting period averaged $1.3 billion. And since the demand for borrowings is notoriously volatile, I think it would be a little better to start out a bit more conservatively. For lack of a better figure, I would throw out $1.1 billion. And then I'd have a clear understanding with the staff that borrowing would be adjusted down quickly if new data suggested that we had greater-than-anticipated weakness in the money supply and a lessening of pressures in the money market.","[{'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""And that's what I assume the Congress will be working on rather than trying to remove the other part of it. I think it's time to relax [policy] and to reliquify the economy. It's time to permit corporations to fund their securities loans. It's time just to say we are finished one job and to start the next one. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Black. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""I think it's time to operate as rational people and to try to get the economy at least started on a tentative recovery.Given the alternatives that Steve has presented, that leaves me in the position of alternative A. I can't conceive of maintaining these interest rates and not having really severe problems as we move into the summer.I'm concerned, as is everyone else, about those deficits.I would hasten to point out to you that approximately $100 to $125 billion of the deficit is due to the recession.And I don't think we should require the Congress to try to offset recession-induced deficits by cutting expenditures or raising taxes.Even if we adjust for that, the deficits are substantial.And that's what I assume the Congress will be working on rather than trying to remove the other part of it.I think it's time to relax [policy] and to reliquify the economy.It's time to permit corporations to fund their securities loans.It's time just to say we are finished one job and to start the next one.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Black.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,utterance
643,647,19821005_379_4,MR. BLACK.,"""But maybe I am dead wrong on this.""","My feeling is that we can't pay too much attention to the aggregates right now but that we ought to nudge the federal funds rate [up] a little as a way of showing that we're concerned about that. I don't expect that to have much effect. But I think it could keep us from having to move [rates] a whole lot later on, which really would worry me a great deal. But maybe I am dead wrong on this. It may be that the aggregates will come into line very beautifully and we will have no worries. That would be the best of all possible worlds. But that's not what I think is the most likely case. So, I'm opposed to what you have suggested here, although I understand full well how a reasonable person could be expected to--","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I have said upon a number of occasions that the way we have lost this game is by staying with an expansionary policy too long during a recovery period. That statement also says the mistakes were not made at the bottom of a recession. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""Okay. Well, it may be a delay of timing, but I'm not going to quarrel with you. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""It's rather significant. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""And if that does happen--though, of course, all of us hope it doesn't--we may find ourselves in a position where we are going to have to move against that.We have just finished a discussion of countries that have delayed taking wise steps and they have gotten to the point where they have to take very drastic steps.I have a whole collection of quotations from members of the Board of Governors who have stated very eloquently that this is the point at which we've lost it, usually, in the past.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""You won't find that quotation from me.There was a quotation to that effect cited at this meeting before, which I must correct for the record.I have said upon a number of occasions that the way we have lost this game is by staying with an expansionary policy too long during a recovery period.That statement also says the mistakes were not made at the bottom of a recession.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""Okay.Well, it may be a delay of timing, but I'm not going to quarrel with you.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""It's rather significant.""}]",yes,yes,utterance,entailment,utterance
644,648,19830209_1130_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Lesser restraint would be acceptable in the context of appreciable slowing of growth in the aggregates to or below the paths implied by the long-term ranges, taking account of the distortions related to the introduction of new accounts.""","""Lesser restraint would be acceptable in the context of appreciable slowing of growth in the aggregates to or below the paths implied by the long-term ranges, taking account of the distortions related to the introduction of new accounts.""","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""I don't see how we can quantify this without causing more trouble than we have already. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We could say, ""taking account of the distortion of new accounts."" I\'m not so sure that\'s so bad. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'That does take care of it, technically. That would take care of it. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Yes, but some people when they see our long-term targets would read that as meaning that unless M2 gets all the way down to 7 to 10 percent or something like that, we're not going to be easing.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, I\'m not so sure.But we can put in a sentence on M2 to describe that.If we literally took this language ""to or below the paths [implied by the] long-term ranges,"" we would say in the policy record that we don\'t expect M2 to revert immediately, given all these things, to whatever we said up above--7 to 10 percent.We\'d say we know that M2 growth is going to be high for a while.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Yes, we'd have to say that.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""I don't see how we can quantify this without causing more trouble than we have already.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We could say, ""taking account of the distortion of new accounts.""I\'m not so sure that\'s so bad.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'That does take care of it, technically.That would take care of it.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,,sentence
645,649,19830209_1170_3,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Lesser restraint would be acceptable in the context of appreciable slowing of growth in the aggregates to or below the paths implied by the long-term ranges, taking account of the distortions related to the introduction of new accounts.""","Shall I read it again just to make sure? ""For the more immediate future, the Committee seeks to maintain the existing degree of restraint on reserve positions. Lesser restraint would be acceptable in the context of appreciable slowing of growth in the aggregates to or below the paths implied by the long-term ranges, taking account of the distortions related to the introduction of new accounts. The Chairman may call for Committee consultation if it appears...federal funds rate...of 6 to 10 percent.""","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, unless somebody has a strong feeling, we might as well just leave it where it was. Are there any other comments? I guess it's clear in everybody's mind what we mean to convey by this. In fact it's pretty plain, I think, in the main. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'It is. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I'm talking about the last sentence on the federal funds rate.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Oh, I see.It's hard to move it down, I think.It's about 8-1/2 percent.If we made it 6 to 9 percent, it shows that we [unintelligible] problems or we could have 7 to 9 percent in an attempt to show that.It's consistent with the first sentence to move it down to 6 to 9 percent.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Yes it is.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'It might be consistent with the first sentence to move it to 7 to 9 percent or 7-1/2 to 9 percent or something.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'Or 8-3/8 to 8-5/8 percent!'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, I don't think that.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""I don't care whether we leave it alone.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, unless somebody has a strong feeling, we might as well just leave it where it was.Are there any other comments?I guess it's clear in everybody's mind what we mean to convey by this.In fact it's pretty plain, I think, in the main.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'It is.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,
646,650,19830524_681_3,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""I'll promote $350 million again.""",It's pretty obvious: $350 million is the weighted average. We have to reach a decision. I'll promote $350 million again. Any votes?,"[{'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Sure you can. Put your right arm up. '}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': ""You just did; now we're getting ready. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': 'At least use the left hand and the right hand. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Well, in some ways $350 million is the weighted average. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'How many people want to hold it at $350 million?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I'll buy $350 million.""}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': ""It's $392 million.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""I'd prefer $400 million, but I'll buy $350 million.I'm getting hungry too!""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""One, two, three, four.We didn't get six votes for $350 million.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""[Unintelligible.]I'm not sure we're going to have six votes for anything.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't know where all the missing votes are.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""I'd be willing to vote for one that won't hold.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': '$400 million?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Do we pick up any [votes] at $400 million?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'No.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""No, we didn't.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Now try $300 million.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""$300 million isn't going to have enough votes here.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': ""You can't vote twice!""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Sure you can.Put your right arm up.'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': ""You just did; now we're getting ready.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': 'At least use the left hand and the right hand.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Well, in some ways $350 million is the weighted average.'}]",yes,yes,-200+ tokens,contradiction,-200+ tokens
647,651,19830823_292_4,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""We should just be putting in ""all of their rise.""""","It's not true, is it? Mr. Bernard is looking at the last sentence of the boilerplate on interest rates. ""Interest rates rose appreciably through most of the intermeeting period but recently market rates have retraced much of their rise."" We should just be putting in ""all of their rise."" Is that correct?","[{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': '[Laughter.] '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Shall we vote? Somebody is pointing something out. What is this about? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'The interest rate sentence. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""There's no question about that.But I think it's also correct to say that we're not pegging it.We've seen within a week a considerable movement in the funds rate.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'With that clarification or lack thereof, I guess where we are specifically is that we replace ""increase slightly further"" with ""maintain the existing degree of reserve restraint.""I would just summarize that 8-1/2 and 8 percent by saying 8 percent [for both M2 and M3] and take out the ""respectively.""We leave in the 7 percent for M1 and I guess we\'re leaving in the 6 to 10 percent for the federal funds range.And we are assuming a borrowing level of $700 to $900 million, unless these other factors suggest that that should be changed.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'And this implies a funds rate of around 9-1/2 percent?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That's where they are guessing, that's right.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'Or a little less.[Laughter.]'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Shall we vote?Somebody is pointing something out.What is this about?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'The interest rate sentence.'}]",yes,no,,,
648,652,19840131_73_3,MR. PARTEE.,"""I thought there was supposed to be a lag of 6 months or so.""","The other thought I had as I looked at this particular chart is that I don't see much delay in the price effect of the alternative projection--that is, the one where you have the dollar falling to a hundred by the fourth quarter of 1984. It seems as if the maximum first difference price effect appears almost at the same time. I thought there was supposed to be a lag of 6 months or so.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Aside from the dollar problem, we think there is downward pressure, but it erodes over time. And by the end of 1985 the downward pressure on the wage side is virtually nonexistent in the sense that we think an unemployment rate of 7 percent is near the top end of what is ""full employment."" '}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""Part of the point here is that the dollar's earlier rise brings forward some of the price pressures in the wage/price dynamics that we would get later. So, therefore, just the fact that you have those price pressures tends arithmetically to hold down some of the prices in the short run and removal of that gives you somewhat of an uptick. That's why, at least measured off the consumer price index, you get that tilting up. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'But you\'re right: A good deal of the impact of the dollar does show through; it\'s not a minor feature.We are of the mind that, indeed, 1984 unemployment rates are still high enough to be exerting some degree of downward pressure on wages and compensation domestically.Aside from the dollar problem, we think there is downward pressure, but it erodes over time.And by the end of 1985 the downward pressure on the wage side is virtually nonexistent in the sense that we think an unemployment rate of 7 percent is near the top end of what is ""full employment.""'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""Part of the point here is that the dollar's earlier rise brings forward some of the price pressures in the wage/price dynamics that we would get later.So, therefore, just the fact that you have those price pressures tends arithmetically to hold down some of the prices in the short run and removal of that gives you somewhat of an uptick.That's why, at least measured off the consumer price index, you get that tilting up.""}]",no,,,,
649,653,19840327_42_5,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""I don't know if anybody else has a different recollection.""",,"[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""I think it's the weekly they get. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'Just the weekly report goes to the Treasury. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'And, of course, the Greenbook. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'What specifically would you propose to restrict, Nancy? '}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'I would restrict them from the Greenbook because in the past we have had some distinct and fairly specific leaks of the contents of the Greenbook. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""But we did not feel that it was up to us--and frankly, I'm not sure it's very practical without raising more dust than it's worth--to restrict access to people in the Administration.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""Well, there seems to be a lot of access at the Treasury and we don't have any idea what their security provisions are for these documents.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""But they don't get the Bluebook or the Open Market directives or the policy records.What they do have are the two Managers' reports, and I think they're entitled to have them because those are needed both in the managing of the public debt and, of course, in the foreign exchange market where the Secretary of the Treasury[has responsibility].""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""Do you mean the Managers' weekly reports?""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""I think it's the weekly they get.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'Just the weekly report goes to the Treasury.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'And, of course, the Greenbook.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'What specifically would you propose to restrict, Nancy?'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'I would restrict them from the Greenbook because in the past we have had some distinct and fairly specific leaks of the contents of the Greenbook.'}]",no,,,,
650,654,19840327_1040_1,MR. GRAMLEY.,"""I don't think anybody's--""",,"[{'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'We were legislatively instructed not only to watch the aggregates but interest rates, real growth, inflation, and unemployment. And the sentiment on the Hill is toward managing the real economy, not the monetary aggregates, at the present time. I agree with Tony. If we go back to emphasis on M1 and put it up front and at the beginning of the road, we could create very unstable conditions in the economy. And interest rates will be transferred into the economy. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""It served a useful purpose in the late '70s and early '80s, but I don't think it will fly to try to go back to using that as a rationale.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROBERTS.', 'text': ""We don't in fact use it as a rationale.We say that is our policy--that what we control is the money supply and if demand rises, the effect of that is that interest rates move--instead of saying that we set an interest rate independent of its response on the aggregates.[The latter] doesn't seem to be very rational in a period when we all agree that the inflationary danger is rising.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'We were legislatively instructed not only to watch the aggregates but interest rates, real growth, inflation, and unemployment.And the sentiment on the Hill is toward managing the real economy, not the monetary aggregates, at the present time.I agree with Tony.If we go back to emphasis on M1 and put it up front and at the beginning of the road, we could create very unstable conditions in the economy.And interest rates will be transferred into the economy.'}]",ambiguous,,,,
651,655,19840522_352_2,VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.,"""But I thought the practical implication of what you were saying was that you don't want the qualifier ""only"" inserted, which we didn't have in the previous directive.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I understand that. But the point I wanted to make was more that the basic purpose of this directive, as I see it, is that it's a framework for a continuity and a discipline in the policy process. I don't want to diminish all the current problems but I don't want to see that lost with an endless string of adjectives and qualifiers either. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'So what are you saying? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I'm saying [this is] fine, but let's not lose sight of what this really is. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'It says we would consider all these other things before we responded.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think that is correct.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I certainly don't have any problem with the substance of what we're talking about because I think it's the only thing we can do.But again in the context of possible contingencies I certainly don't want to rule out the possibility--which we're not--that we might have to firm a bit sometime between now and July 10th.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""It's not ruled out and it's not meant to be ruled out.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I understand that.But the point I wanted to make was more that the basic purpose of this directive, as I see it, is that it's a framework for a continuity and a discipline in the policy process.I don't want to diminish all the current problems but I don't want to see that lost with an endless string of adjectives and qualifiers either.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'So what are you saying?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I'm saying [this is] fine, but let's not lose sight of what this really is.""}]",no,,,,
652,656,19840717_201_1,MR. CORRIGAN.,"""I'd go one step further even than Tony.""","I'd go one step further even than Tony. I'd be troubled by raising that credit range, particularly on the grounds of raising it because of mergers and leveraged buyouts. It seems to me that that's tantamount to sanctioning a pattern of financial behavior that is going to get us in trouble sooner or later. If we're going to raise it, raise it. But I would not say that we're going to raise it because we have all these damned leveraged buyouts. That seems to me to be just bad policy.","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""You don't read it that way, I guess. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""Tony, I would just rebut that by saying it's a monitoring range now that we've had very little experience with. We elevated M1 at the last meeting to a higher position, equal to M2 and M3. And we have not elevated the debt aggregate to that position. As a result, if we're still experimenting with it, let's experiment with it by raising it to be somewhat more consistent, with the thought of dropping it in the '85 presentment that the Chairman will make at the same time he talks about '84. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'Because if we raise both of them, it seems to suggest to me that we have indeed turned the reins loose a bit and I would not want to give that view.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""It's funny, but I come to the opposite conclusion.It seems to me that if we raise the target for credit, we are implying to the markets that we're going to be somewhat easier in our policy than if we don't raise the target.It seems to me that there has to be a policy implication to making a midyear adjustment.You don't read it that way, I guess.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""Tony, I would just rebut that by saying it's a monitoring range now that we've had very little experience with.We elevated M1 at the last meeting to a higher position, equal to M2 and M3.And we have not elevated the debt aggregate to that position.As a result, if we're still experimenting with it, let's experiment with it by raising it to be somewhat more consistent, with the thought of dropping it in the '85 presentment that the Chairman will make at the same time he talks about '84.""}]",yes,yes,utterance,,utterance
653,657,19840717_683_1,MR. GRAMLEY.,"""I would hope you would.""",I would hope you would.,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I'm not going to say it just that way, I don't think. I might say that as I look at the situation with the economy moving the way it is and the inflationary risks, yes, there's a possibility we might have to tighten. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Particularly since you guys aren't doing anything on the deficit! ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Particularly since you guys aren't doing anything on the deficit--and as I evaluate the economy--I don't see great prospects for much easing. I might well say that. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""But I'm always willing to probe a little further.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Aren't you going to be asked about current short-term policy when you testify?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Probably.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Quite strongly, I think.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Yes, I think with any of these directives I would say, if I have to say something, that it has not changed.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Would you convey the flavor of asymmetry in your answers to those questions?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'It depends upon how the questions are asked.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Suppose the questions were asked the right way, would you do it?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I might, yes.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Rather than symmetry?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, maybe.I'm not going to say it just that way, I don't think.I might say that as I look at the situation with the economy moving the way it is and the inflationary risks, yes, there's a possibility we might have to tighten.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Particularly since you guys aren't doing anything on the deficit!""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Particularly since you guys aren't doing anything on the deficit--and as I evaluate the economy--I don't see great prospects for much easing.I might well say that.""}]",yes,yes,-5 sentences,entailment,-5 sentences
654,658,19841002_49_2,MR. CROSS.,"""It is amazing how much the attitudes [have changed]; everybody seems to talk about what a good thing the dollar is to get into these days.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""If there are no widespread objections to that, we will proceed. We've had a very strange exchange market during this period, as Mr. Cross has described, and he rationalized as best he could why the dollar is so strong. It's not so clear why it's so strong against declining interest [rates], weaker economic activity, and several developments indicating an easier Federal Reserve policy, all of which in days of yore--like two months ago--would have sent the dollar down. They don't seem to have any effect right now. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""And I take it that what the understanding really means is that these are our foreign currency[limits] but in an emergency I can breach them.But the sense is that the Committee is thinking in terms of these [limits] and if they were breached I would come back to the Committee at some pointand I would at least explain why they were breached.Limits of $5 billion [on DM], $1 billion [on yen] and $.5 billion [on other currencies] is the minimum change we're talking about.If there are no widespread objections to that, we will proceed.We've had a very strange exchange market during this period, as Mr. Cross has described, and he rationalized as best he could why the dollar is so strong.It's not so clear why it's so strong against declining interest[rates], weaker economic activity, and several developments indicating an easier Federal Reserve policy, all of which in days of yore--like two months ago--would have sent the dollar down.They don't seem to have any effect right now.""}]",no,,,,
655,659,19841107_244_9,MR. CORRIGAN.,"""It seems to me that all of these fine arguments that Mr. Axilrod and others make about M1 really come down to the question of how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.""","From my perspective what we have seen here over the past several weeks, and indeed months, has been something that I would consider an orderly adjustment in policy and interest rates and so on. There was at least a fleeting moment when I thought it might become a little messy but that did not materialize. In the broad context of the situation that we are looking at, I would not be troubled if interest rates went down a bit more in a context not unlike what Tony spoke about earlier. But let me turn to that in a minute. My view of the economy is a little different from many others. That is a factor in my thinking. But I would also caution against too much of a reaction to M1. We have been through M1 problems and we are going to go through them again. It seems to me that all of these fine arguments that Mr. Axilrod and others make about M1 really come down to the question of how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. I don't know how many. I do know that seasonal adjustment factors alone can make a big difference. We have looked at these data using a seasonal adjustment technique that's very respectable--I don't think it's any better than any others but it's very respectable--and it produces almost a $7 billion increase in the money supply from the first week of June to the second week of October rather than a decline.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'And I think that means that our procedures are pretty faulty. I doubt that I would end up with the same recommendation as Frank but I certainly do endorse his idea. In view of all these unexpected things that have happened this year, our control mechanism leaves a lot to be desired and I think we can improve it. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Corrigan. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""I would feel more comfortable if we moved somewhat more slowly with a higher borrowing target initially for the next couple of weeks or so; if it becomes clear at that point that M1 is still below path, then I would be prepared to reduce the borrowing target accordingly.I would favor [the language in the Bluebook under] alternative Roman numeral II with certain changes in the second sentence for the wording of that and I strongly endorse Frank Morris' suggestion that it really is time for us to look at our procedures.I think everybody wants to get the money supply growing again, but we have no earthly idea how much we will have to reduce the borrowing target or how much the federal funds rate will have to come down to accomplish that.And I think that means that our procedures are pretty faulty.I doubt that I would end up with the same recommendation as Frankbut I certainly do endorse his idea.In view of all these unexpected things that have happened this year, our control mechanism leaves a lot to be desired and I think we can improve it.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Corrigan.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,utterance
656,660,19850521_164_6,MR. MARTIN.,"""It seems to me that the growth in GNP right now is too low, and that there is a downside risk.""","Picking up on Governor Rice's comments with regard to the economy growing under its potential, I would certainly subscribe to that comment. I don't know whether it's 3 or 3-1/2 percent or more, but certainly [2.7] percent and a range of 2 to 2-1/2 percent are under potential. It seems to me, though, that that question is properly addressed in the July review rather than in this short-run situation we face. Secondly, I would like to address the suggestion that M1 be brought down to the band--I think it was the band, not the cone. I won't get too methodical with you here. It seems to me that the growth in GNP right now is too low, and that there is a downside risk. The 7.3 percent potential growth rate [for M1] that Steve mentioned earlier--if that is the case for the year--I don't find all that disturbing, considering the discussions that we have had with regard to V1. It seems to me that in the usual model it would take a federal funds rate--what would it be: 8-1/2 or 9 cent?--to bring M1 down within that band. And it seems to me that that is not called for under these circumstances. As far as alternatives are concerned, the point I was trying to make by reviewing the horror stories that unfortunately are real and not in the movies anymore is that I think we made the correct move in reducing the discount rate but that there is enough speculative fever out there that if we were observed doing anything further in the direction of ease, we would run a risk that I don't believe is necessary of aiding and abetting that fever. So it seems to me that this is a wonderful time for the Chairman--as only the Chairman can do--to make that representation that we are central bankers and we are concerned with orderly markets and inflation and we are going to hold the line, as it were. That gets me certainly to voting for alternative B as the closest thing to the status quo I can read out of today's confusing events and the description thereof. If the market expects a nudge further in the direction of ease, our failure to satisfy that expectation might be the best thing we could do right now, when I feel there is so much potential panic out there. As far as the borrowing is concerned, I go along with Jerry's suggestion of $350-$375 million, partly because I cannot understand how the thrifts' borrowing [fits], and secondly because I don't know how much borrowing will occur as unfortunate events unfold and how that will affect the borrowing level. It seems to me that results in a federal funds rate, perhaps as was indicated, between 7-1/2 and 8 percent; and I think that is appropriate in terms of market pressures and the discount rate reduction.","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""That's about where I am. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'You are prepared to accept those low M2 and M3 numbers, though? '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'Yes. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""You don't think that there is any information content in them? ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'I do not. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'We would be glad to put them all in there, if you will take it out of that figure, because it is like extended credit on those that [unintelligible] for a short time; [the institutions are] not feeling the adjustment pressure that is ordinarily felt in adjustment credit.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I would think you could [unintelligible] out of extended credit as you do out of adjustment credit.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'The rate is higher.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Those institutions are under some pressure.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""Again, I would take alternative B with borrowings of $350 to $375 million.We have this awkward problem of having set monetary growth paths for the quarter in March that, especially in the case of M2 and M3, just are now so far out of line with what we were talking about then that I think we have to consider --althoughno one likes it--finessing the language of the directive to acknowledge that situation at least as it pertains to M2 and M3.I think M1 we can finesse without any great problems.That's about where I am.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'You are prepared to accept those low M2 and M3 numbers, though?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""You don't think that there is any information content in them?""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'I do not.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
657,661,19850710_83_3,MR. MARTIN.,"""I am aware that it is necessary for the staff in its presentation of materials to make an assumption about [money growth for] the rest of 1985 and for 1986.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""You considerably restock the car inventories and durable goods inventories and, therefore, that looks sort of high. Even for the poor state and local governments, who have been spending at a very modest rate, your chart at the bottom shows their surplus dropping off to nothing in the projection period. So I tend to get the impression looking through this--and I realize it is very dangerous--that a stall is quite conceivable, particularly if one takes Mr. Truman's adverse line on imports, which is closer to what I would have expected than the one that the staff projected as their central tendency. I tend to be persuaded by this presentation that the economy is really pretty weak. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Martin. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I should have, I suppose, done the color coordination and gone to the left, but I didn't.So I see that you have a vacancy rate of more like 15 or 16 percent, which is a very high vacancy rate.One hears of concessions occurring all over the country.I am somewhat inclined to agree that consumers have been overspending; their debt has risen sharply and delinquency rates are up some in that area.You considerably restock the car inventories and durable goods inventories and, therefore, that looks sort of high.Even for the poor state and local governments, who have been spending at a very modest rate, your chart at the bottom shows their surplus dropping off to nothing in the projection period.So I tend to get the impression looking through this--and I realize it is very dangerous--that a stall is quite conceivable, particularly if one takes Mr. Truman's adverse line on imports, which is closer to what I would have expected than the one that the staff projected as their central tendency.I tend to be persuaded by this presentation that the economy is really pretty weak.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Martin.'}]",no,,,,
658,662,19850820_248_6,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""[We could have] a great increase of credibility with the monetarists in the short run and if the economy plunges into recession or we have a great financial crisis, we will suffer an enormous loss of credibility in a more basic sense.""","The only way it could be different would be if we had a $5 billion drop or something like that right away. It would have to happen in next week's figures. If I were to write down a number, I would say $400 to $500 million, depending upon the aggregates and the dollar. If the economic news clearly weakened, we would have to say that we may go below it. If the money supply remained very strong, or if the combination of a strong money supply and a declining dollar produced a progressive loss of confidence or loss of credibility, if that's the right word--I'm very chary of the credibility argument for all the reasons that have been stated. [We could have] a great increase of credibility with the monetarists in the short run and if the economy plunges into recession or we have a great financial crisis, we will suffer an enormous loss of credibility in a more basic sense. MR. RICE(?). An insubstantial change, though, is unlikely to do that.","[{'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'Yes, I understand. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""If we put it in that kind of number, there is no substantial prospect of easing purely on the M1 number for a month. That may be all right, but I just want to make clear the implication of what you're saying. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'We had specified 5 to 6 percent. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'For the quarter, anyway. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'For the quarter.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, I'm not objecting to what you say, I'm just saying that as a practical matter--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': ""It's not going to do that.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, it might.But we're not going to know until shortly before the next meeting.That doesn't say we shouldn't do it.But since we are going to get a high August, to get down to 8 percent we would have to have--.The projection already is for a lower September.I don't know when we next meet; it's the first of October.It might become apparent along about September 20 unless something very surprising happens.I'm not saying you're wrong; I just wanted--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'Yes, I understand.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""If we put it in that kind of number, there is no substantial prospect of easing purely on the M1 number for a month.That may be all right, but I just want to make clear the implication of what you're saying.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'We had specified 5 to 6 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'For the quarter, anyway.'}]",yes,,,,
659,663,19851001_40_5,MR. BOEHNE.,"""It's nothing we can measure very precisely, but it seems to me that in the '80s there has been some backtracking in the very same kinds of forces that led to an economizing of money in the '60s and '70s.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Well, it has. It has its ups and downs. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'I know. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""But starting in May, we had growth rates in three months that were 10 percent or more and in two months that were 6-1/2 percent. It's on average a little faster, but I don't think it's extremely noticeable. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""So, I'm a little confused as to whether the portfolio shift out of these term deposits was in fact directly connected with the rise in old M1A.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Oh, I doubt that it's very much in there.I could conceive of some going into demand deposits for a while but not for very long.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""Yes, that's about my view.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Why would you take money out of an interest-bearing deposit and put it in a demand deposit?That's--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Yes.I would say that it's only conceivable for a transitional period while one is making up one's mind what to do with it.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Very short.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""That's why it could affect the average for a very short while.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'And currency has gone up quite a bit too.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Well, it has.It has its ups and downs.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'I know.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""But starting in May, we had growth rates in three months that were 10 percent or more and in two months that were 6-1/2 percent.It's on average a little faster, but I don't think it's extremely noticeable.""}]",yes,,,,
660,664,19851217_340_1,MR. FORRESTAL.,"""Mr. Chairman, form the perspective of the Sixth District, things are looking considerably better than they did a month ago.""","Mr. Chairman, form the perspective of the Sixth District, things are looking considerably better than they did a month ago. We have had a very sharp decline in unemployment--from a little over 8 percent to about 7.3 percent--and even the employment in manufacturing, textiles, and apparel has tended to stabilize. The textile and apparel people, as well as some manufacturers, even have seen some increases in their orders over the last month. This is not reducing the protectionist sentiment, I might say. They are not really attributing this [improvement] to a fall in the dollar, although they recognize that there might be some of that. But they are still looking for protectionist measures like the Jenkins bill to make some fundamental changes in their situation. Construction continues to be very good in most areas. To be sure, we have weak spots in the District, such as Louisiana, but construction in most states is doing pretty well. Retail sales have been very, very good, particularly in the post-Thanksgiving period. And from an impressionistic point of view the business people that I talked to really are exhibiting a good deal of confidence about 1986. They think that growth is going to be not marvelous, but fairly moderate, and perhaps a little better than in 1985. People I talked to, like those Si Keehn mentioned, are very discouraged about the tax bill. They would like it either to be passed or to be taken off the table so that they can make their plans. If the bill is revived, as perhaps it might be, that is going to cause additional uncertainty, and I think that business people might very well defer some business decisions in 1986, which might be a negative for the economy. So, extrapolating from that kind of local experience, it would seem to me that maybe the risk is slightly on the up side. I would think that the effect of interest rates would perhaps be more of a stimulus to the economy, notwithstanding Gramm-Rudman, than in the Board staff's forecast. So I continue to look for a little stronger economy, perhaps somewhere in the area of 2-1/2 to 3 percent for GNP. I guess the difference between my forecast and the Board staff's forecast is not so much in the numbers. Rather, it's in my feeling that I can accept the 2-1/2 to 3 percent growth rate, while the Board staff's forecast would be unacceptable. If they're right, I think that perhaps the time has come to make some move to bring that up a little. But again, I believe we are probably going to see 2-1/2 to 3 percent growth.","[{'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': ""That's the outlook, and it could be [less]. Most of the considerations surrounding that would suggest that, if anything, it would be more likely to be lower rather than higher. There are oil price possibilities. So, I would say that the inflation outlook is rather more favorable than unfavorable. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Forrestal. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': ""Now, obviously, some very good things have happened.In very general terms, interest rates have come down and the dollar has come down.But when you try to evaluate what the impact of these generally favorable developments would be on specific sectors, it's very hard to see how this is going to get us more growth than is forecast for 1986.So, far from seeing the risks on the up side as Bob does, I see them rather on the down side.So to me, the main question that is raised is whether a moderate 2 percent rate of growth for 1986 is acceptable, all things considered, in the current circumstances, particularly in light of the inflation outlook.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Which is what?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': ""Well, it's less than 4 percent.That's the outlook, and it could be [less].Most of the considerations surrounding that would suggest that, if anything, it would be more likely to be lower rather than higher.There are oil price possibilities.So, I would say that the inflation outlook is rather more favorable than unfavorable.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Forrestal.'}]",no,,,,
661,665,19851217_441_1,MR. PARTEE.,"""I'd be prepared to talk about it, Si.""","I'd be prepared to talk about it, Si.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""Well, I tend to support the position laid out by Messrs. Boehne and Guffey. I do think there have been some important changes over the last few weeks and, as a consequence, that we have something of an opportunity here that we ought to take advantage of. The economic outlook, I think we agree, is positive. I don't think I heard anybody talk about a recession near term. But also I must say I don't have any sense that there's a significant risk of-- ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': 'It leads me to the view that the proper specifications for policy at this time now are somewhere between ""A"" and ""B."" I come to that conclusion largely on the consideration that lower nominal rates would be associated with essentially the same real rate in this environment, if inflationary expectations have diminished.So, that\'s where I would go.With someplace in between ""A"" and ""B"" I think we will get an acceptable economic performance in 1986, as best I can judge the situation.I kind of put aside the discount rate for the moment although, obviously, that\'s another way of going--depending, I suspect, on your comments about coordination.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Keehn.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""Well, I tend to support the position laid out by Messrs. Boehne and Guffey.I do think there have been some important changes over the last few weeks and, as a consequence, that we have something of an opportunity here that we ought to take advantage of.The economic outlook, I think we agree, is positive.I don't think I heard anybody talk about a recession near term.But also I must say I don't have any sense that there's a significant risk of--""}]",no,,,,
662,666,19860212_120_3,MR. STERN.,"""I have forgotten what the original base was but it was probably at least that size.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': ""There are new pulp and paper plants in Duluth and in the Upper Peninsula, and copper mines in the Upper Peninsula have reopened. Some may well reopen in Montana. Taconite plants are reopening in Northern Minnesota and there are some new processes being developed there that may lead to some expansion in taconite output. It's really rather remarkable. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I am nonplused by the copper mine opening. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': ""I have talked in the past about a two-tiered economy and the distinction between what has been happening in the metropolitan areas as opposed to the rural areas.At least in our District, I am afraid now that I have to talk about a three-tiered economy.The metropolitan areas continue to do pretty well.The problems in the agricultural part of the rural economy are still there, of course, but in the non-agricultural rural economy I think there are some signs of improvement in our District.This is evident most vividly in terms of re-openings or expansions or building of new plants, particularly in the mining and the pulp and paper areas.There are new pulp and paper plants in Duluth and in the Upper Peninsula, and copper mines in the Upper Peninsula have reopened.Some may well reopen in Montana.Taconite plants are reopening in Northern Minnesota and there are some new processes being developed there that may lead to some expansion in taconite output.It's really rather remarkable.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I am nonplused by the copper mine opening.'}]",no,,,,
663,667,19860212_379_1,MR. JOHNSON.,"""It sounds like what we really have is something below the $300-$400 million range you are suggesting.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""And because the target is so low, you can't go below zero but you can go high on a particular day, and it is hard to get borrowings consistently to average that low. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'There is no economic incentive. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'In the two weeks ending January 29, Mr. Chairman, we had borrowings of $374 million and in the preceding two-week period they were $143 million. And, as you mentioned, for this period they probably will be somewhere between $200 million and $300 million or so by the time we are done. For the latest week that was published, the first half of this two-week period, borrowing was $240 million in that one-week period. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""When [unintelligible] are low--assuming you are aiming that low--unless you are very active, even then you run into all sorts of quirks.Once in a while there is some miss on guesses by the banks on their reserves or something comes out that you don't expect and you get high [borrowings] on one day.And because the target is so low, you can't go below zero but you can go high on a particular day, and it is hard to get borrowings consistently to average that low.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'There is no economic incentive.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'In the two weeks ending January 29, Mr. Chairman, we had borrowings of $374 million and in the preceding two-week period they were $143 million.And, as you mentioned, for this period they probably will be somewhere between $200 million and $300 million or so by the time we are done.For the latest week that was published, the first half of this two-week period, borrowing was $240 million in that one-week period.'}]",no,,,,
664,668,19860212_545_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""I don't detect any policy difference between those ways of expressing it; I don't know if somebody else does.""","I don't detect any policy difference between those ways of expressing it; I don't know if somebody else does. We can discuss it, but on the understanding that those are roughly equivalent maybe we can proceed.","[{'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'By roughly the amount [of the discount rate cut]. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, I think we're ready to vote. I don't know if anybody wants to pin down whether we're saying $300 million plus or minus or $250 to $350 million or $200 to $400 million. I interpret them as equivalent. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""They're all the same. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Sometimes it aggravates you, but basically it hurts you because we're not sitting on it within a 1/4 of a percentage point or an 1/8 of a percentage point the way we used to.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""But I haven't seen two-week averages in the 9 percent range nor at 7 percent.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'That is correct.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""We won't see it at 7 percent with the discount rate at 7-1/2 percent.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""It did get up almost to 8-3/4 percent in that period when there were a lot of year-end pressures.But the market recognized that as something rather special and they weren't greatly concerned.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'If you used approximately a $300 million borrowing target but accompanied it with a discount rate cut, what kind of fed funds results would you expect?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'By roughly the amount [of the discount rate cut].'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, I think we're ready to vote.I don't know if anybody wants to pin down whether we're saying $300 million plus or minus or $250 to $350 million or $200 to $400 million.I interpret them as equivalent.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""They're all the same.""}]",yes,yes,sentence,,
665,669,19870211_203_2,MR. ANGELL.,"""I think my forecast for the CPI is 100 basis points higher than it was last year after I had been here 7 days.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': ""If anything, I have been a bit pessimistic in terms of the 1987 performance on the real economy and inflation, although we are not seeing a great amount of indication that inflation is getting to be a problem. To me, at least, it's time to observe that very, very closely, because the possibilities are such that we could see a little pickup there. I don't know whether it will materialize or not; we will just have to wait and see. But it's something that I would hope we'd be observing very closely. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, Mr. Angell, is going to tell us how good the inflation outlook is. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': ""One thing that is tending to influence us in the Eleventh District is the fact that in the survey that we just did on the effects of the decline in the value of the dollar, we probably have not received the benefit--or certainly not the same benefit--that other Districts have been reporting.There is optimism, although it's cautious optimism; it's a sense that we just don't think we are going to slide down any further and we can see a few glimmers of hope.If anything, I have been a bit pessimistic in terms of the 1987 performance on the real economy and inflation, although we are not seeing a great amount of indication that inflation is getting to be a problem.To me, at least, it's time to observe that very, very closely, because the possibilities are such that we could see a little pickup there.I don't know whether it will materialize or not; we will just have to wait and see.But it's something that I would hope we'd be observing very closely.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, Mr. Angell, is going to tell us how good the inflation outlook is.'}]",no,,,,
666,670,19870331_306_3,MR. HENDRICKS.,"""With respect to the prominence of the exchange rate in the directive we would favor not changing it.""","Although the business statistics have improved in the last couple of months, they don't seem to be impressive enough to suggest a significant step-up in the pace of expansion. We're concerned about some price developments that we see on the horizon and the pressure on the dollar in foreign exchange markets. With respect to the prominence of the exchange rate in the directive we would favor not changing it. And, of course, the alternative that we support is the ""B"" path.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'and we can get it down to 145. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': 'Then you get a different directive. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Hendricks. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Just delay the vote awhile. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': 'It may be there now. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""Maybe there's some room for some discretionary allowance there.I think we ought to at least give this upcoming G-10 meeting a chance.I hope we've got that much time without something happening in the exchange market to give us more of a problem, but--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""So far it's getting weaker by the minute.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""Yes.Hopefully we can maintain the current approach until after that meeting.Anyway, that's the dilemma.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'There used to be a range in the directive for borrowings, which may be appropriate here.We could maybe skew it a little in the direction of the sentiment that has been expressed.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Where is the exchange rate?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': 'The yen is down to 145-1/2, which is down another 1/2 a yen in the course of today and below the levels where it has been for the past couple of days in Tokyo and New York.It is under pretty heavy speculative pressure right now.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Just a little longerand we can get it down to 145.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': 'Then you get a different directive.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Hendricks.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Just delay the vote awhile.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': 'It may be there now.'}]",yes,no,,,
667,671,19870331_337_4,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""We could push for a higher level of borrowing for two weeks and before you know it the exchange market would be out there and not have any understanding that that was going on and the funds rate wouldn't move at all.""","Well, let's assume all that. It can take a lot of convincing; whether that's possible or not is another thing. [The problem with] fooling around with the level of borrowings is that, essentially, that's a very loose steering wheel. We could push for a higher level of borrowing for two weeks and before you know it the exchange market would be out there and not have any understanding that that was going on and the funds rate wouldn't move at all.","[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""At this point in time, that's the best alternative. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""That's probably about the best. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'If we move we reduce their incentive to take action. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, as they see it, they don't have much room to move. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'But since the world economy would not be adversely affected by some increase in U.S. interest rates if we had an offsetting decline in rates [abroad]-- '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We can say ""This action is expected to be consistent with growth in M2 and M3 over the period from March through June at annual rates of ___ and ___ percent.""Do we want to say anything about M1?""M1 is expected to remain substantially below its pace in 1986.""Okay.So, just reverse those and leave the wording.Somebody get that typedand we can talk about substance.I don\'t think there\'s any doubt, obviously, that if we move we would be much better off if the others moved also.In fact, we might be better off if the others moved without our moving.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""At this point in time, that's the best alternative.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""That's probably about the best.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'If we move we reduce their incentive to take action.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, as they see it, they don't have much room to move.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'But since the world economy would not be adversely affected by some increase in U.S. interest rates if we had an offsetting decline in rates [abroad]--'}]",yes,yes,sentence,,
668,672,19870519_154_3,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""so I thought I should identify it now, anyway.""","Let me mention one thing that I was going to discuss later. I will discuss it later, but some rumors are flying around the markets so I thought I should identify it now, anyway. Citibank is making the great move this afternoon, unless the market forces them to announce it earlier. They are making a reallocation of their capital accounts and are going to put $3 billion into reserves against general contingencies, which will get pretty precisely identified with LDC risk. They say that is not their intention but the accountants are forcing them into it, looking for some explicit excuse. This will be a record loss for any bank, by some multiple, in a quarter, and a big loss for the year. I am sure the idea they have in mind is that they will then show very favorable earnings in subsequent quarters; they won't have this quarter-by-quarter drag of large provisions and everything is going to look much better. In fact, what's happening is that a couple of numbers on the balance sheet are changing. It is going to raise a lot of questions, obviously, in the minds of a lot of people about other banks. There are a lot of rumors about around the market. We can discuss later what is going on in the market.","[{'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""So I think the question is: What does it take to stabilize these conditions? I don't want to overreact and deal with more than just what the inflationary risk is. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Kohn, maybe you can give us a brief analysis. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Chairman. [Statement--see Appendix.] '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""I think the question then is: What does it take to do that?We now see some growing spreads in interest differentials between the United States and our other trading partners.My own opinion is that, hopefully, we are getting to the point where the dollar is finding some legs under it and will have to stabilize.I think the real question is whether we have done or are about to do enough in monetary policy to convince the markets that we are dealing with the inflationary risks in terms of the dollar and other domestic pressures on inflation.As Peter Sternlight pointed out, borrowings--inadvertently or advertently--averaged $700 million over the last intermeeting period.I am not sure whether we want to go further than that or whether I personally want to continue that sort of a borrowing assumption.So I think the question is: What does it take to stabilize these conditions?I don't want to overreact and deal with more than just what the inflationary risk is.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Kohn, maybe you can give us a brief analysis.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Chairman.[Statement--see Appendix.]'}]",no,,,,
669,673,19870707_771_2,MR. JOHNSON.,"""Obviously, we wouldn't at all.""","We have to have a target so we would--. Obviously, we wouldn't at all.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""All it says is that we are thinking of it; it just says we're going to reexamine whether we want one at all. I don't think it commits you to anything. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""That's the same kind of range we were saying we had-- ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, that just leaves it where we are. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""Yes, but it just doesn't-- ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""There's a lot of uncertainty about the interest rate scenario that goes with these nominal GNP numbers.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""I know, but I just want to have some notion in case we're going to discuss this seriously in January.I want to have some notion about how well we might do between now and then as to whether or not we will be able to redo it.Otherwise, I don't want to say we're going to discuss it seriously.You think it would take 3 to 9 percent?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""Right now, if you asked me, I'd say 3 to 9 percent, or 2 to 8 percent, or something along that line.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Then it would be--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""This doesn't say we're going to establish a target range.All it says is that we are thinking of it; it just says we're going to reexamine whether we want one at all.I don't think it commits you to anything.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""That's the same kind of range we were saying we had--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, that just leaves it where we are.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""Yes, but it just doesn't--""}]",yes,,,,
670,674,19870922_94_7,MR. PRELL.,"""Again, when you look at house prices, there too, the evidence suggests that, at least in many markets, there's still a pretty robust demand at these interest rates.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Now, we've probably gone through some catchup period in home ownership, but that number seems fairly reasonable to us, looking at the response we've seen just so far to the substantial increase in mortgage rates. It hasn't made the market fall apart entirely. We may not have it quite right, but this is a stab at what we think is a normal response. ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""What if it just means that the lags are longer? Maybe we haven't even seen the full impact of the spike we had back in April or May, which was quite dramatic. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""In that sense, it's well in line with the historical patterns.The other thing that provides some comfort--""}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'Is that true for both the single family and the multifamily?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Well, I'm looking at it in the aggregate: clearly, they are both to be affected by the change in interest rates.Looking at it from another angle, mortgage rates are back up to levels we saw in 1985, and we had considerably higher housing starts then--in the 1.7 million area.Now, we've probably gone through some catchup period in home ownership, but that number seems fairly reasonable to us, looking at the response we've seen just so far to the substantial increase in mortgage rates.It hasn't made the market fall apart entirely.We may not have it quite right, but this is a stab at what we think is a normal response.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""What if it just means that the lags are longer?Maybe we haven't even seen the full impact of the spike we had back in April or May, which was quite dramatic.""}]",no,,,,
671,675,19870922_175_6,MR. EISENMENGER.,"""So there is not much mobility, despite the fact that we pay somewhat higher wages, because the real cost of living for someone moving in and buying a house is almost impossible.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. EISENMENGER.', 'text': 'Well, wage rates are moving up faster. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'But overall, I mean the broader-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. EISENMENGER.', 'text': 'Well, you would have to talk about pieces. If you talk about the price of housing, we used to be-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'The Boston CPI? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. EISENMENGER.', 'text': ""The new orders that are coming in, the industrial production statistics, and the probable greater strength from foreign orders, suggest that the dangers of a recession, at least in the next 18 months, are pretty well washed away.On the upside--the possibility of having something faster than a 2-1/2 percent real growth rate--we have set in train two actions just in the last 25 days which provide us some insurance [against that].And the staff talks about additional actions during the next year that--it is our best guess--would provide additional insurance.Our hope is that we can achieve the forecast that the Greenbook so optimistically puts forward.I don't think I have anything to contribute to what other people have said on the long-term bond rate.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'What has the regional inflation rate been doing in New England?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. EISENMENGER.', 'text': 'Well, wage rates are moving up faster.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'But overall, I mean the broader--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. EISENMENGER.', 'text': 'Well, you would have to talk about pieces.If you talk about the price of housing, we used to be--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'The Boston CPI?'}]",no,,,,
672,676,19871216_159_9,MR. HOSKINS.,"""I'm not sure I caught the gist of his comments correctly, but [unintelligible].""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Well, I think that was one of the recommendations--is that right? Yes, that after the first of the year, coming off the instability of year-end, is an ideal time to phase in, if we're going to do that. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""I'd be in favor of that--in other words, alternative (1). Or more precisely, I guess, I favor alternative (1) for now, but moving to (3) as rapidly as we can after the turn of the year. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoskins. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I think I hear a consensus for moving away from what we are currently doing and in the direction of alternative (3), and I certainly would favor that; but in my mind, it's really a question of timing.I'm a little uncertain as to how the rest of the year is going to play out and what kind of pressures will be emerging.Rather than using the year-end as a blind, if you will, to accomplish a change, I'd favor going through that period, and then as soon thereafter as possible, begin to implement the change.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Well, I think that was one of the recommendations--is that right?Yes, that after the first of the year, coming off the instability of year-end, is an ideal time to phase in, if we're going to do that.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""I'd be in favor of that--in other words, alternative (1).Or more precisely, I guess, I favor alternative (1) for now, but moving to (3) as rapidly as we can after the turn of the year.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoskins.'}]",no,,,,
673,677,19871216_642_1,MR. HELLER.,"""The optimism is also in contrast to what I would almost call a barrage of visits and letters that have been coming in here during the last couple of weeks and days.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': 'Yet everybody is extremely optimistic. '}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': '[Unintelligible]. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': ""Martha hasn't spoken yet? Well-- ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""I haven't spoken yet. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""I'm just afraid to peg the fed funds rate in an environment in which we would not have interest rates responding to those real forces.I share the view that letting the dollar go is a recipe for disaster.We're not getting the kind of help we ought to be getting on Capitol Hill, but it seems to me we either have to take some steps in that direction, or we're going to get an experience that none of us wants.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Heller.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': ""I was quite surprised to hear the high degree of optimism from all parts of the country expressed around the table here.I was surprised because an awful lot of people talked about their agreement with the Greenbook.And if you look at the Greenbook, the next quarter's GNP is down 1.1 percent: consumption is negative; durables and nondurables are negative; industrial production is down to a 1.0 percent increase; housing starts and auto sales are at the lowest levels since 1983.Yet everybody is extremely optimistic.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': '[Unintelligible].'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': ""Martha hasn't spoken yet?Well--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""I haven't spoken yet.""}]",no,,,,
674,678,19880210_425_2,MR. BOEHNE.,"""I would have a symmetrical directive.""","I favor alternative B with a $250 million borrowing, which I interpret as being essentially where we are now, after the recent easing. I would have a symmetrical directive. I also agree wholeheartedly with Manley on his views about the discount rate. It seems to me that whatever marginal adjustments we make in monetary policy ought to be done through open market operations and that we ought to avoid a change in the discount rate for the reasons that he stated rather well. However, my alternative B and $250 million borrowing are predicated on the current discount rate. If the circumstances should arise over the coming weeks that there might be a change in the discount rate, then I think one would have to revisit open market operations. I don't think that we ought necessarily to let a discount rate change automatically change open market operations. It seems to me that while they obviously work together, they are separate decisions; and a change in one shouldn't automatically lead to a change in the other.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I share the questions that are arising as to just where we are, but for the short term I am in favor of maintaining the existing degree of pressure, and I think that's alternative B. I also would share Tom's view that we ought to be moving back to a borrowings level, on a basis that's consistent with what Peter can produce; and, therefore, I'm leaning toward a borrowing level of $250 million. Of the three alternatives for the longer term, I'd be in favor of using the ranges stated in alternative III; but I would have a preference, as I said earlier, for a broader range of 4 to 8 percent. And I think that that broader range would be appropriate both for M2 and M3. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': ""As I said earlier, I'm still in favor of rebasing, with a 4-1/2 to 7-1/2 percent range; or 4 to 8 percent is also fine with me.I really don't have a strong feeling on that as much as the rebasing.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Keehn.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I share the questions that are arising as to just where we are, but for the short term I am in favor of maintaining the existing degree of pressure, and I think that's alternativeB. I also would share Tom's view that we ought to be moving back to a borrowings level, on a basis that's consistent with what Peter can produce; and, therefore, I'm leaning toward a borrowing level of $250 million.Of the three alternatives for the longer term, I'd be in favor of using the ranges stated in alternative III; but I would have a preference, as I said earlier, for a broader range of 4 to 8 percent.And I think that that broader range would be appropriate both for M2 and M3.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,
675,679,19880630_184_2,MR. JOHNSON.,"""So, on the wage front, once again I say there's nothing yet, but you do get the feeling that something is out there.""","No, he is very responsible; I respect his judgment. So, on the wage front, once again I say there's nothing yet, but you do get the feeling that something is out there. At the same time, I think all of the strong good feelings going on now are a cumulative effect of the positive growth we've seen in the past. And where we go from here, I think, is going to be the lagged response to what we've been doing over the last 6 months or so. And so we've got to be careful. I do think that probably the risks are still more on the upside than the downside as well. But I think that we need to be very careful from this point on that we pay attention to the lags that are taking place in the forward-looking markets where we have been effective in my opinion.","[{'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'He is. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""That's a fast turnaround in two weeks. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""He doesn't expect his own or his associates' [wages to go up], but he's worried about the inflationary pressures emanating elsewhere with no increases in salaries or wages for his own people. That's one of the problems. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'Right, he is. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'But I think another year of accelerating prices relative to nominal wages might be a problem.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I think the wage models don't have in them the ratio of imports to domestic demand, if you're going to do it that way.Because that's clearly what's doing that.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': 'Manley, excuse me for interrupting you, but went further than that.He said there will be no inflation pressures generated by wage pressures.He made that flat statement.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""Yes, I think that's right.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Well, one thing to bear in mind is that he have been taking a big share of the business down there.Yesterday, I talked to him and he closed the conversation by saying ""I\'m getting extremely worried about inflation.""'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'He is.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""That's a fast turnaround in two weeks.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""He doesn't expect his own or his associates' [wages to go up], but he's worried about the inflationary pressures emanating elsewhere with no increases in salaries or wages for his own people.That's one of the problems.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'Right, he is.'}]",yes,no,,,
676,680,19880816_187_7,MR. HELLER.,"""If you look at the various components of GNP, we continue to have the best progress in the export sector and the investment sector, and that's exactly the way it should be.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""When you get ready to do your report, Don, I guess I want to find out what impact a 9-1/2 percent fed funds rate and a 10-1/2 percent rate will have on M2 growth. Certainly, that seems to me to be a difference. And I guess it's pleasing to me to see that when M2 growth got up to 8 percent and right above our target range that, policywise, we were able to turn that around and bring that down to an acceptable level. Now I don't know whether 4 percent is right or 3 percent or 2 percent, but I guess I'm more confident than others are that if we stay with 4 percent or 3 percent or 2 percent on M2 growth that things will work out so that we'll all be happy with the inflation results down the pike. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Heller. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""And I don't know whether the rest of you have noticed it or not, but to me it's kind of pleasing to have M2 be on a 4 percent growth path; and maybe we'll get it down to 3 percent.When you get ready to do your report, Don, I guess I want to find out what impact a 9-1/2 percent fed funds rate and a 10-1/2 percent rate will have on M2 growth.Certainly, that seems to me to be a difference.And I guess it's pleasing to me to see that when M2 growth got up to 8 percent and right above our target range that, policywise, we were able to turn that around and bring that down to an acceptable level.Now I don't know whether 4 percent is right or 3 percent or 2 percent, but I guess I'm more confident than others are that if we stay with 4 percent or 3 percent or 2 percent on M2 growth that things will work out so that we'll all be happy with the inflation results down the pike.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Heller.'}]",yes,,,,
677,681,19890328_322_4,MR. STERN.,"""That's all I would add.""","Well, Si Keehn and Bob Parry have already pretty much emphasized what I would want to point out. That is, I'm afraid that market participants believe we are targeting the federal funds rate closely at this juncture. So, while I favor ""B"" I think it's important, as we pause in the process of tightening here, that we make sure we pause at the right place and don't give the market a signal that we are in some sense backing off. That's all I would add.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""But at this point I certainly would continue to favor asymmetric language. Not to go further into the operational aspects of it but, if the market's perception is that the fed funds rate target is, say, 9-3/4 or 9-7/8 percent, it does seem to me that we are in a period in which there may be natural upward pressure on that rate. I wouldn't resist it if the rate were moving up to 9-7/8 or 10 percent, whereas I would resist it if, in fact, the rate began to trend downward. So, I'd have a clear bias toward allowing the rate to go up. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'But my hunch is that, if anything, it probably works to slow it down rather than speed it up.And that\'s the second reason why I have that tilt.Having said that my preference would lie between ""B"" and ""C"" right now, I guess I can go along with your formulation in the spirit of Bob Parry\'s earlier comments.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Keehn.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I would be in favor of your recommendation, namely, alternative B.But at this point I certainly would continue to favor asymmetric language.Not to go further into the operational aspects of it but, if the market's perception is that the fed funds rate target is, say, 9-3/4 or 9-7/8 percent, it does seem to me that we are in a period in which there may be natural upward pressure on that rate.I wouldn't resist it if the rate were moving up to 9-7/8 or 10 percent, whereas I would resist it if, in fact, the rate began to trend downward.So, I'd have a clear bias toward allowing the rate to go up.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern.'}]",no,,,,
678,682,19890516_415_1,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""I understand what you're saying.""",I understand what you're saying. But you would put language [unintelligible] with respect to the Ms.,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Asymmetrical in which direction? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': 'The way it has been. I would keep it the way it has been, but I think to some extent that asymmetry is muted by moving up the emphasis on the Ms within the directive, because people know what has been happening to the Ms. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Well, I'm hard pressed to find the difference between where I stand and where you stand. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': 'My only point is that I would leave the language on the ""mights"" and ""woulds"" the same. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""And I think staying ahead of the risk curve at this point does mean taking that small step to symmetry; it's quite consistent with what we've done over the past year.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor LaWare.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LAWARE.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman: ""B;"" $600 million; symmetry.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Period.President Syron.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I have a lot of sympathy for your view of staying where we are.The problem we seem to be having is defining just where we are.I think policy has been pretty successful.Where I am, to try to use Governor LaWare\'s approach, is: ""B;"" $600 million; but asymmetrical.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Asymmetrical in which direction?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': 'The way it has been.I would keep it the way it has been, but I think to some extent that asymmetry is muted by moving up the emphasis on the Ms within the directive, because people know what has been happening to the Ms.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Well, I'm hard pressed to find the difference between where I stand and where you stand.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': 'My only point is that I would leave the language on the ""mights"" and ""woulds"" the same.'}]",no,,,,
679,683,19890822_152_3,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""They have made a judgment that we won't, and it's not clear that it's that simple.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""We think it is unlikely that this agreement is going to fall apart entirely; but if it did, then presumably we'd have somewhat stronger aggregate demand over the next year in this forecast and less restraint coming from the fiscal side. Relative to GNP, I don't think that we're talking necessarily about numbers that are night and day differences; but they are potentially of some significance. Let me just add one thing. One of the reasons CBO is higher reflects their assumption that the thrift resolution expenditures in this fiscal year will be lower than the $20 billion that we've built in. That's largely a paper shuffling transaction, as we've interpreted it, so that would be of no effect in-- ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""No one has the guts to do it and the private sectors don't.President Stern.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': ""Mike, you made a passing reference to fiscal policy.What difference, if any, would it make to the forecast if you had CBO's spending number rather than yours?It's about a $36 billion difference but--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Well, a lot of those differences come from policy assumptions.We think it is unlikely that this agreement is going to fall apart entirely; but if it did, then presumably we'd have somewhat stronger aggregate demand over the next year in this forecast and less restraint coming from the fiscal side.Relative to GNP, I don't think that we're talking necessarily about numbers that are night and day differences; but they are potentially of some significance.Let me just add one thing.One of the reasons CBO is higher reflects their assumption that the thrift resolution expenditures in this fiscal year will be lower than the $20 billion that we've built in.That's largely a paper shuffling transaction, as we've interpreted it, so that would be of no effect in--""}]",yes,no,,,
680,684,19890822_238_9,MR. PRELL.,"""Be that as it may, the trend there just looks to be weaker than one would anticipate over time; so in the second half we do have, in effect, a bit of a catch up.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""You were talking earlier about unchanged growth rates, and I'm wondering why that would affect the growth rate. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'It affects the growth rate of consumption in the third quarter because of the level [unintelligible] path and so on. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'Okay, I see it. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""We're at a much higher level and relative-- ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""It's jumping all over the place. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""Just a couple of things: First, you mentioned that you thought demand was going to be rather buoyant, and I'm having a little trouble with that.I see it picks up somewhat in the second half of the yearand I think some of that is auto related--certainly, the third quarter is.Then you have it coming off in durables in the fourth quarter, but nondurables are much stronger relative to the past.What's causing that nondurable consumption [growth]?It has been trending down and all of a sudden it leaps up in the second half.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'In the very near term I think it is much affected by the revised retail sales data, which puts it on a distinctly different path than we were on earlier.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""But that's a level adjustment.You were talking earlier about unchanged growth rates, and I'm wondering why that would affect the growth rate.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'It affects the growth rate of consumption in the third quarter because of the level [unintelligible] path and so on.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'Okay, I see it.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""We're at a much higher level and relative--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""It's jumping all over the place.""}]",yes,no,,,
681,685,19891003_48_12,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""Our problem, basically, is that at this stage we could probably as central banks--we could at the Fed--create a really big fuss about this.""","There is no enthusiasm among any of the central bankers. I don't think even the Bank of France is enthusiastic. The two leading prongs are the U.S. Treasury and the Ministry of Finance of Japan. There has been a pulling and tugging on this of rather large dimensions. My impression is that in the event this all fails and the dollar starts to creep back up this intervention effort will be abandoned. What we have to be careful about it is that as it becomes more and more difficult, they will want to increase [the amount of intervention] more and more. What we have been fending off, successfully so far, is pressure that was not too subtly brought forth before the G-7 meeting to bring the central banks into this whole game. In other words, essentially the G-7 would start to control monetary policy. And I think that was fended off pretty abruptly. There was a feeble attempt to put that in the Communique. That was knocked out very quickly before things got moving. Our problem, basically, is that at this stage we could probably as central banks--we could at the Fed--create a really big fuss about this. As you know, legally, the presumption is that the President, through the Secretary of the Treasury, has full control over the issue of intervention policy. It has never really been tested. We have always had a partial voice; in other words, when Messrs. Brady and Mulford started to talk about [a target of] 125 for the yen and 1.75 for the DM, I protested to a point where I suggested that they would pull the system apart. And I got that eliminated. So, they did have targets. The trouble is if we ever tried to get to those targets, we'd have the world's most awful mess on our hands. There is a limit as to what we can do short of confrontation. I don't think it serves either the Fed or the country to try to be actually up front and to bring this operation to an abrupt halt. I think we could do it. In other words, if that were our objective--forgetting all the secondary costs--I have no doubt that we could do it. I just think that it would be far better not to try that and, hopefully, keep this constrained at a level where the damage is minimal. I disagree with Manley on the issue of the secondary effects being scary; on the contrary, I was surprised at how minimal those effects were. Having seen an earlier version of intervention really almost kick over the bond market, I think in the last 10 days we got away with really minor results. I don't think we can depend on that continuing. I think that if we hammer at these markets, something will crack.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'There is an belief now, particularly among the Japanese, that sterilized intervention can put the exchange rate where they want it. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""Well, that leads into my next question; I think you touched on it. Is the United States leading the charge on this or is it more a consortium of finance ministers who are leading the charge and central bankers are acting as their agents? Or is there a lot of enthusiasm on the part of central banks? I'm just trying to understand. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'So, my first question is: In these discussions about intervention, is there some kind of understanding that the intervention will be followed up with more fundamental changes in economic policy, whether on the monetary side or the fiscal side?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The answer is ""no.""'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'The market thinks so.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'I think the market would think so, because most people probably would agree that intervention, except in rare situations, has a rather temporary influence unless it is followed up with something more fundamental.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Ed, that is true among academicians; it is not true among finance ministers.There is an belief now, particularly among the Japanese, that sterilized intervention can put the exchange rate where they want it.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""Well, that leads into my next question; I think you touched on it.Is the United States leading the charge on this or is it more a consortium of finance ministers who are leading the charge and central bankers are acting as their agents?Or is there a lot of enthusiasm on the part of central banks?I'm just trying to understand.""}]",yes,no,,,
682,686,19900207_36_2,MR. TRUMAN.,"""As I said, we are assuming that inflation will be lower.""","Well, that's a possibility. As I said, we are assuming that inflation will be lower. Now, if you add another percentage point to foreign inflation relative to our forecast and keep oil unchanged, then that differential is going to drop from 150 basis points to 50 basis points. [Unintelligible] absolutely. And there may be an expectational element built into that.","[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'As Mike was saying, there is a certain circularity in that construction. The historical series gives you an actual centered forecast. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""If you look at the survey-based expectations for the foreseeable future or at Hoey's last survey, for example, he's looking at 4-1/2 percent or something like that for 10 years. And that would not be grossly out of line with what is built into these numbers for the United States. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'But I think you could argue that inflation expectations in those other industrial countries have gone up significantly. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, Governor Johnson's questioning about these real long-term interest rates prompted me to look at the footnotes on Chart 15 down in the lower left-hand corner where there are three asterisks.That says inflation is estimated by a 36-month centered moving average of actual inflation, forecast by staff[where needed].Does that mean that the last figure has 18 months of forecasting in it?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""Absolutely.That's what I meant when I said to Governor Johnson that to some extent the higher real interest rates today reflect our assumption that inflation will be lower tomorrow in the foreign countries.As Mike was saying, there is a certain circularity in that construction.The historical series gives you an actual centered forecast.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""If you look at the survey-based expectations for the foreseeable future or at Hoey's last survey, for example, he's looking at 4-1/2 percent or something like that for 10 years.And that would not be grossly out of line with what is built into these numbers for the United States.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'But I think you could argue that inflation expectations in those other industrial countries have gone up significantly.'}]",no,,,,
683,687,19900207_55_7,MR. PRELL.,"""We have some productivity increase and we think this is internally consistent.""","Well, we looked at that and asked ourselves the same question and, obviously, we ended up with these numbers after all of that. There is a marked slowing of employment growth in this forecast; we have increases in employment in payrolls of about 1-1/4 percent in the two years. We have another negative effect on real disposable income coming through the terms of trade effect as the price of imported goods rises relatively rapidly. That tends to create some wedge between product prices and consumer prices. It's a small thing, but it's tending to work in that direction. This is an economy in which we have very slow growth. We have some productivity increase and we think this is internally consistent. But it is a very low growth and it raises some questions, I think, about how this kind of situation will be perceived by consumers. We have not assumed that there will be any extraordinary change in their behavior, despite this prolonged period of slow growth. One needs to keep in mind throughout this, as we look at the future, that to the extent the population is growing more slowly we're going to get [unintelligible] too.","[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Thank you. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': ""Mike, I'm not sure I understand your personal income forecast. If I look at the middle panel of Chart 10, your numbers for '90 and '91 are comparable with '80, '81, and '82. But at best it looks like it stays on the weak side even given your modest growth path. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""Well, these questions are designed to get to the bottom line question which is: With monetary policy and some tendencies toward real interest rates being maintained at a level consistent with path and with some fiscal restraint, why does the forecast assume that there's that much improvement in the level of economic activity in 1991?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Well, basically what we have is high rates and fiscal restraint holding growth below the long-run trend.We're opening up a gap over that period of time.But we do have the effects of the dollar working through here to provide some increased demand for U.S.-produced goods.And that tends to hold [activity] up while domestic demand is being more directly affected by the monetary and fiscal restraint.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Thank you.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': ""Mike, I'm not sure I understand your personal income forecast.If I look at the middle panel of Chart 10, your numbers for '90 and '91 are comparable with '80, '81, and '82.But at best it looks like it stays on the weak side even given your modest growth path.""}]",yes,no,,,
684,688,19900207_242_1,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""So, in effect, there is no evidence at this particular stage that were we to move in that direction we'd have to reverse and move it back up in 1991.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Would anyone like to offer an amendment for other than 3 to 7 percent on M3? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""Since I was the first one to say that even though I supported alternative II on M2 I thought the range in alternative III would be appropriate for M3--given what's happening in the broader aggregates and given the staff's forecast, which is even in the lower [part] of the alternative III range--I'll make the motion that we go to alternative III for M3, 2-1/2 to 6-1/2 percent. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Second. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'May I just ask a question of where the forecast would show M3 in 1991? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'We have 5 percent in 1991 because we have the runoff of thrift assets slowing down as more thrifts meet their capital requirements. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'As I counted, not all voting members voted.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Okay.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Let's call the roll on the Vice Chairman's amendment.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'Chairman Greenspan Yes Vice Chairman CorriganYes Governor AngellYes President BoehneYes President BoykinYes President HoskinsYes Governor JohnsonYesGovernor KelleyYes Governor LaWareYes Governor SegerNo President Stern Yes'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'It clearly carries.Would anyone like to offer an amendment for other than 3 to 7 percent on M3?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""Since I was the first one to say that even though I supported alternative II on M2 I thought the range in alternative III would be appropriate for M3--given what's happening in the broader aggregates and given the staff's forecast, which is even in the lower [part] of the alternative III range--I'll make the motion that we go to alternative III for M3, 2-1/2 to 6-1/2 percent.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Second.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'May I just ask a question of where the forecast would show M3 in 1991?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'We have 5 percent in 1991 because we have the runoff of thrift assets slowing down as more thrifts meet their capital requirements.'}]",no,,,,
685,689,19901218_248_5,MR. HOSKINS.,"""Don's projections presumably could err on both sides, not just one side, and we may well get a faster growth rate of money.""","I just wanted to finish the policy statement separate from the discount rate issue. I think we ought to have asymmetric language. I'd rather have the 25 basis point move in the hands of the Chairman at his discretion. We have made some significant moves in terms of interest rates in the recent past and we haven't seen those fully show through yet. Don's projections presumably could err on both sides, not just one side, and we may well get a faster growth rate of money. But even with the projection that we have, a 50 basis point move puts us at the top of our tentative target range for next year by June. And it seems to me that some patience is needed here and some careful watching of the aggregates. I'm not averse to moving if the aggregates pan out to be more than a 26-week fluke. But maybe we ought to see what's in that aggregate box before we move ahead.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boykin. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': 'I would support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman. I would also hope that there is a discount rate cut. The only comment I would make is that I hope you would exercise considerable discretion in going any further in the intermeeting period unless something very unusual happens. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoskins. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""We could be left in the same position if the Board decided not to move the rate on Wednesday and then we would have a situation where, with the authority we are proposing to delegate to the Chairman, we would still have the funds rate coming down close to or possibly below the discount rate.So, I'm not troubled with that.I'd go ahead with the open market operations.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Keehn.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I would enthusiastically support your recommendation, which I think is absolutely the right thing to do given the current circumstances.Specifically, in terms of our decision here today, I would reduce the fed funds rate by 25 basis points, have asymmetric language, and hope that the discount rate would be reduced concurrently or shortly.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': 'I support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boykin.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': 'I would support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman.I would also hope that there is a discount rate cut.The only comment I would make is that I hope you would exercise considerable discretion in going any further in the intermeeting period unless something very unusual happens.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoskins.'}]",no,,,,
686,690,19911105_209_1,VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.,"""That's not a bad idea!""",That's not a bad idea!,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""So we couldn't possibly tell them that this 1/4 point [reduction] was pending. And yet I think their attitude would be affected to some significant extent by that if they knew. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Mullins. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': ""First, I think we shouldn't schedule FOMC meetings around quarterly auctions. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Why don't the quarterly auctions schedule themselves around our meetings? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""You mean you can't make a recommendation on the discount rate independent of that?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""Sure, I can; but I have knowledge that they don't have that I can't share with them.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Yes, but you--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""And I wouldn't--""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""That's true all the time.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""Well, it is [a concern] to me not to share information and give them my best judgment, which would have to be affected by the knowledge that we were going to cut [the funds rate] 1/4 point the next day.We're pretty free with our directors but we never tell them anything about what we're going to do or anything about what we just did that isn't released, and we never will.So we couldn't possibly tell them that this 1/4 point [reduction] was pending.And yet I think their attitude would be affected to some significant extent by that if they knew.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Mullins.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': ""First, I think we shouldn't schedule FOMC meetings around quarterly auctions.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Why don't the quarterly auctions schedule themselves around our meetings?""}]",yes,no,,,
687,691,19911217_144_1,MR. FORRESTAL.,"""Mr. Chairman, I would support your recommendation.""","Mr. Chairman, I would support your recommendation. A point of clarification: I assume you're talking about a 1/4 point move?","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""But it's important for us to be aware that it may be necessary to preserve what has been really an extraordinary success to date on inflation. I must say, looking back, that I think we've had some lucky things happen to us. One of them is that our policy has been able to rein in inflation at a much more rapid pace than we had contemplated earlier. And it would be a shame if we were to let that get away. President Forrestal. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': 'So, for that reason, my own personal preference would be alternative A.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoenig.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'I agree with your recommendation.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Vice Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I support your position.I'd just make a point that sounds absolutely preposterous in this environment: Things could develop, even in 1992, where we could get surprised on the up side.That sounds ridiculous right now, but let's not forget about that possibility.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I might say parenthetically that I presume it would be the desire of this Committee to move with due dispatch should that consideration arise.That has been the [stated position] of this Committee previously.But it's important for us to be aware that it may be necessary to preserve what has been really an extraordinary success to date on inflation.I must say, looking back, that I think we've had some lucky things happen to us.One of them is that our policy has been able to rein in inflation at a much more rapid pace than we had contemplated earlier.And it would be a shame if we were to let that get away.President Forrestal.""}]",yes,yes,utterance,ambiguous,
688,692,19920205_341_6,MR. HENDRICKS.,"""and we would not like to see any significant shortfall from that path this quarter.""","We've had several years of moderate growth and our view is that the inflation trend appears to be a decline to 3 percent and that it may be getting down even beyond that. We see the basic thrust of policy as being consistent with that outlook: that is, 3 percent inflation in '92 and 2 percent, perhaps, in '93. Therefore, we feel that the FOMC does have some room for further easing if the policy action that was adopted in December does not stimulate growth in money and credit. M2 seems to have been particularly erratic over the past month or so, making it difficult to judge just what sort of growth track we're really on. For the year we'd like growth in M2 of 3-1/2 percent or so and we would not like to see any significant shortfall from that path this quarter. Consequently, we would like to see further easing in policy should the incoming data suggest that M2 is weakening from current levels. Our position for now, however, is in line with the Greenbook projection and your suggestion, Mr. Chairman. We would support alternative B with asymmetry toward ease.","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'First of all, I\'d start by saying that there is a lot [of stimulus] in the pipeline and we should be patient. However, as I mentioned yesterday, our projections are that the real economy might actually grow more slowly than what is in the Greenbook forecast, and that gives me some pause. I also am concerned about the growth of M2, which I think has been erratic and too slow. So, I am inclined to go with ""B"" asymmetric toward ease, but I would wait until we have some more information on the real economy and on M2 before I would charge forward. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'First Vice President Hendricks. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'I think this is a time for patience and watchful waiting.On the question of symmetry or asymmetry, if I were voting, I could accept either.I agree with your logic that the chances of tightening are essentially nil and that there is some chance for easing.So, there is something to be said for asymmetry and I would support it.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoenig.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'I, too, am inclined to follow your recommendation.First of all, I\'d start by saying that there is a lot [of stimulus] in the pipeline and we should be patient.However, as I mentioned yesterday, our projections are that the real economy might actually grow more slowly than what is in the Greenbook forecast, and that gives me some pause.I also am concerned about the growth of M2, which I think has been erratic and too slow.So, I am inclined to go with ""B"" asymmetric toward ease, but I would wait until we have some more information on the real economy and on M2 before I would charge forward.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'First Vice President Hendricks.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
689,693,19920331_208_3,MR. JORDAN.,"""And I hope very, very much that it comes from the long end.""","Over the last couple of months we have had the steepest yield curve in several decades from bills to bonds. And putting bills on a coupon equivalent basis so we can understand what it is [and say] anything with any confidence at all about the future would indicate that the yield curve tends to flatten as the expansion progresses so that most likely later this year, or a year from now, we'll get a yield curve that is flatter than it is today. And I hope very, very much that it comes from the long end. In fact, if I were still in the private sector I'd probably be willing to bet that that flattening will occur at the long end as concerns over fiscal policy tend to dissipate and people become comfortable with the idea that expansion can not only occur but may even be robust without any kind of inflation. But I am concerned about what has been happening to the yield curve in the last several weeks. The flattening has been occurring starting at the long end and kind of rolling down the curve, first with the 10-year note moving up toward the 3-year area and rolling down to the 3-year area. And David Mullins's comments about the forward rates I thought were very perceptive [unintelligible] market. So, we have had a flattening from 3 years on out and a considerable steepening from 1 year to 3 years, and at the same time a shift up in the 3- and 6-month and 1-year bill rates. I was interested in the go-around on the economy to hear about the false start last year and concerns that it might happen again. But one of the differences today is that we have a bill rate above the funds rate and it has been so for some weeks. That hasn't happened in a couple of years. If that continues with the flattening or rolling down of the yield curve toward the shorter end and we get upward pressure on short rates, especially from the bill rates pushing up relative to the funds rate, then I would like to know what the implications for Desk operations are going to be if the funds rate is held firm at the 4 percent level. I think, if we're right about the outlook, that the funds rate at 4 percent is too high as inflation expectations subside and as the long end rallies back down. But I'd be concerned about not having the leeway to allow the funds rate to be pulled up if these bill rates start to be under a lot of upward pressure in the spring months. So, for that reason I'd like to see [the language] symmetric in either direction.","[{'speaker': 'MS. PHILLIPS.', 'text': ""I know they mean something and maybe they only mean something in hindsight. So, I certainly agree that it's something we need to pay attention to but shouldn't get rattled by. But there are a number of remaining concerns, so I would support your proposal based on them, Mr. Chairman. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Jordan. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': ""That's from the fourth quarter base, not from December?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'From the fourth quarter base and also it is to the end of March.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""It's right around 2.5 percent.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': ""It's 2.5 percent?Okay.I think that we will be both precious and prescient in our words if we keep that in mind.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Phillips.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. PHILLIPS.', 'text': 'I support your proposal of ""B"" asymmetric, and I appreciate your comments on getting past this period of conflicting data.I hope that we will start to see better corporate earnings reports coming out following the first quarter so that we can see some sustainability in the equity market that is at a fairly high level.With regard to the Ms, I agree with you, President Syron.I\'m not sure exactly what they mean.I know they mean somethingand maybe they only mean something in hindsight.So, I certainly agree that it\'s something we need to pay attention to but shouldn\'t get rattled by.But there are a number of remaining concerns, so I would support your proposal based on them, Mr. Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Jordan.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
690,694,19920331_209_1,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""The consensus as I hear it is to support the last directive.""","The consensus as I hear it is to support the last directive. So, if the Secretary would read it for us--","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': ""That hasn't happened in a couple of years. If that continues with the flattening or rolling down of the yield curve toward the shorter end and we get upward pressure on short rates, especially from the bill rates pushing up relative to the funds rate, then I would like to know what the implications for Desk operations are going to be if the funds rate is held firm at the 4 percent level. I think, if we're right about the outlook, that the funds rate at 4 percent is too high as inflation expectations subside and as the long end rallies back down. But I'd be concerned about not having the leeway to allow the funds rate to be pulled up if these bill rates start to be under a lot of upward pressure in the spring months. So, for that reason I'd like to see [the language] symmetric in either direction. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': ""I was interested in the go-around on the economy to hear about the false start last year and concerns that it might happen again.But one of the differences today is that we have a bill rate above the funds rate and it has been so for some weeks.That hasn't happened in a couple of years.If that continues with the flattening or rolling down of the yield curve toward the shorter end and we get upward pressure on short rates, especially from the bill rates pushing up relative to the funds rate, then I would like to know what the implications for Desk operations are going to be if the funds rate is held firm at the 4 percent level.I think, if we're right about the outlook, that the funds rate at 4 percent is too high as inflation expectations subside and as the long end rallies back down.But I'd be concerned about not having the leeway to allow the funds rate to be pulled up if these bill rates start to be under a lot of upward pressure in the spring months.So, for that reason I'd like to see [the language] symmetric in either direction.""}]",no,,,,
691,695,19920701_23_3,MS. LOVETT.,"""So, the fact that the perception out there was that at certain rate levels and at certain times we didn't have a tolerance [for actions] that would cause people to bid the rate up is part of what one has to call the ""market dynamics.""""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'Whatever it was they were looking at, they were thinking ""Uh oh!"" and trying to keep us from doing what we otherwise would have done. '}, {'speaker': 'MS. LOVETT.', 'text': ""Even though they didn't want to have to do that! ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': ""What is your reaction to that kind of heuristic action-reaction? We would have wound up doing something in reserve supplying operations that really wasn't consistent with what we wanted to do because of this perception. And then they would have a perception on the other side regarding what we might do and try to game it in order to prevent us from doing it. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'There were at least two occasions when the projection was for a need to add reserves but the funds rate was trading down toward 3-5/8 percent.So, even though the projection would have called for adding reserves, at least tentatively the program was to drain reserves in order to avoid giving a false message to the markets as to our intentions.And then there seemed to be some gaming going on in the Street by some banks that were bidding up the funds rate just at the ""Call"" time.Whatever it was they were looking at, they were thinking ""Uh oh!"" and trying to keep us from doing what we otherwise would have done.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. LOVETT.', 'text': ""Even though they didn't want to have to do that!""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': ""What is your reaction to that kind of heuristic action-reaction?We would have wound up doing something in reserve supplying operations that really wasn't consistent with what we wanted to do because of this perception.And then they would have a perception on the other side regarding what we might do and try to game it in order to prevent us from doing it.""}]",no,,,,
692,696,19920818_11_2,MR. FORRESTAL.,"""[as the reason for intervention], but I feel constrained to say that I was extremely surprised at this intervention, particularly the second and the third [operations].""","Well, Mr. Chairman, I've heard the rationale of disorderly markets [as the reason for intervention], but I feel constrained to say that I was extremely surprised at this intervention, particularly the second and the third [operations]. Of course, I would respect the judgment of the Desk and Bill with regard to whether the markets were in fact disorderly. But we've had extensive discussions over the last year or so in the Committee about the effectiveness of sterilized intervention, and I thought it was the sense of this group that, unless we were going to follow intervention with some kind of substantive monetary policy move, intervention was not the policy of the Committee. I haven't been clear, Bill, whether or not this might have been instigated by the Treasury, but from your remarks I gathered that that was not entirely so. What really compounds the problem with respect to our credibility is having intervention and then having that followed by the Secretary's statement that he's looking for lower interest rates. That to me made us look extremely silly, to put it mildly. So, Mr. Chairman, I'm just confused as to what the policy of the Committee is. And I guess I'd be interested in knowing what really constitutes a disorderly market in the minds of the Desk. I didn't think hitting a postwar low or coming close to a postwar low with respect to the mark constituted a disorderly market, but maybe there are factors that I'm not aware of.","[{'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': 'Do you think its effectiveness is diminished now as compared to the first [intervention]? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MCDONOUGH.', 'text': ""I guess the best test of that is that last Thursday the Treasury staff up to just below the Secretary was very inclined to want to intervene; I spent a fair amount of time trying to convince them that it wasn't a good idea. At one stage I moved in my good friend, Mr. Truman, to help. And the two of us I think dissuaded them largely, in addition to policy considerations, on the grounds that it just wouldn't work. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Forrestal. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MCDONOUGH.', 'text': ""But now it would be really difficult because the market is sitting there waiting for us to come to them, and that's a very awkward position to be in if we are to accomplish something.So, my own view would be that at certain periods it gives the System greater flexibility in monetary policy and at other times it is not likely to be effective and could be counterproductive.Philosophically, that's where I am.Exactly how you apply that is difficult.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': 'Do you think its effectiveness is diminished now as compared to the first [intervention]?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MCDONOUGH.', 'text': ""I guess the best test of that is that last Thursday the Treasury staff up to just below the Secretary was very inclined to want to intervene; I spent a fair amount of time trying to convince them that it wasn't a good idea.At one stage I moved in my good friend, Mr. Truman, to help.And the two of us I think dissuaded them largely, in addition to policy considerations, on the grounds that it just wouldn't work.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Forrestal.'}]",yes,no,,,
693,697,19920818_15_8,MR. JORDAN.,"""Would the benefits be diminished if we are very open and acknowledge that when the market is receptive to our selling foreign currencies, we would do so?""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': ""And I guess I'd be interested in knowing what really constitutes a disorderly market in the minds of the Desk. I didn't think hitting a postwar low or coming close to a postwar low with respect to the mark constituted a disorderly market, but maybe there are factors that I'm not aware of. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'President Forrestal covered it. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Go ahead. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': ""But we've had extensive discussions over the last year or so in the Committee about the effectiveness of sterilized intervention, and I thought it was the sense of this group that, unless we were going to follow intervention with some kind of substantive monetary policy move, intervention was not the policy of the Committee.I haven't been clear, Bill, whether or not this might have been instigated by the Treasury, but from your remarks I gathered that that was not entirely so.What really compounds the problem with respect to our credibility is having intervention and then having that followed by the Secretary's statement that he's looking for lower interest rates.That to me made us look extremely silly, to put it mildly.So, Mr. Chairman, I'm just confused as to what the policy of the Committee is.And I guess I'd be interested in knowing what really constitutes a disorderly market in the minds of the Desk.I didn't think hitting a postwar low or coming close to a postwar low with respect to the mark constituted a disorderly market, but maybe there are factors that I'm not aware of.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'President Forrestal covered it.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Go ahead.'}]",no,,,,
694,698,19921006_149_2,MR. PRELL.,"""Basically, as we were putting this forecast together, my sense was that given the behavior of the Committee what we were forecasting seemed highly probable and that, unless you switched gears, some slight further easing would be consistent behavior.""","Well, I guess it could be viewed that way in the context of a prevailing expectation now that some small amount of easing is going to be occurring, which might have a little negative effect on bond yields if the market were disappointed, all other things equal. Basically, as we were putting this forecast together, my sense was that given the behavior of the Committee what we were forecasting seemed highly probable and that, unless you switched gears, some slight further easing would be consistent behavior. We did not assume anything that we felt was really material to the basic thrust of the forecast. As we indicated, we are thinking only of a small fractional further decline in the funds rate as being in the range that underlies this forecast. If our story is right, most of the decline in long rates that we have projected would occur even if the funds rate were held at 3 percent. But that's a conjecture. Basically what I said in my briefing was that we have the expansion beginning to pick up gradually fairly soon. If something is wrong in our analysis, the only logical conclusion we could draw in terms of policy implications is that more needs to be done if you want to do at least as well if not better than the forecast. We're falling short of what the Committee's expectations were for economic activity as it stands, so that was the conclusion we reached.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoenig. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': ""Mike, I'd like to follow up on Ed Boehne's question. If I understood you correctly, you were saying that within the context of having provided a fair amount of liquidity for the readjustment, you are expecting things to improve down the road next year and beyond based on where rates have already fallen. But if the improvement doesn't happen, you suggested toward the end of your comments that we might have to make substantial reductions in rates to move the economy along. Having said that, is your discussion about a modest reduction now an insurance policy on the rates that have already come down or did I misunderstand you? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'For example, I attended a meeting of the technical [consultants] of the Business Council last Tuesday and the prevailing forecast--there was a slight lag in this, admittedly--was for growth more around 3 percent without interest rate declines and without a general expectation of significant fiscal stimulus.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': 'Three percent for 1993?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'For 1993.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Forrestal.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': 'Thank you.Ted Truman already answered my question, Mr. Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoenig.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': ""Mike, I'd like to follow up on Ed Boehne's question.If I understood you correctly, you were saying that within the context of having provided a fair amount of liquidity for the readjustment, you are expecting things to improve down the road next year and beyond based on where rates have already fallen.But if the improvement doesn't happen, you suggested toward the end of your comments that we might have to make substantial reductions in rates to move the economy along.Having said that, is your discussion about a modest reduction now an insurance policy on the rates that have already come down or did I misunderstand you?""}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,sentence
695,699,19921117_70_11,MR. MELZER.,"""So, I was reminded of that and thought I'd share that.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'We have the possibility of collapse in Russia this winter. And we always have the Middle East. So, to [abuse] a phrase, maybe what we\'re seeing is ""deja voodoo,"" in line with Attila the Hun and the witch doctor. We\'ve been here twice before and I would not be overly optimistic since all we\'re seeing, really, is an improvement in attitudes. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Melzer. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'I would say: Don\'t expect anything quickly.So, I\'m more pessimistic about the start of the year.I think what we\'re going to see is a stock market decline, a rise in intermediate-term interest rates, and no fiscal stimulus.I think that\'s going to lead to a sense of disappointment.We\'re going to see the continuing layoffs that people mentioned.GM is on the line.And, Jerry, I would ask the same question about IBM.I notice [its stock price] is now down to 65; the last time I looked it was at 85.We\'re going to see continuing weakness abroad.We have the possibility of collapse in Russia this winter.And we always have the Middle East.So, to [abuse] a phrase, maybe what we\'re seeing is ""deja voodoo,"" in line with Attila the Hun and the witch doctor.We\'ve been here twice before and I would not be overly optimistic since all we\'re seeing, really, is an improvement in attitudes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Melzer.'}]",no,,,,
696,700,19930323_192_6,MR. MELZER.,"""I'd probably be more concerned if we hadn't seen the slowdown in M1, reserves, the base, and so forth over the last couple of months.""","I could accept your proposal, Alan. As I think about the symmetry issue, we might as well take the heat when we make a move, not through some words. We've been to that movie recently and it's probably not worth it. There are two things that influence my thinking right now. I'd probably be more concerned if we hadn't seen the slowdown in M1, reserves, the base, and so forth over the last couple of months. As you know, I don't think those are an appropriate target for policy, but I do think they have some value as an indicator of the thrust, and they have slowed down. The other thing is that we're looking at higher inflation numbers, although David makes the point very well that we're still probably not looking at enough numbers yet to be sure. It's dangerous to overreact to high frequency data. But I agree with what Al Broaddus said, that if we wait until we're absolutely sure we're looking at inflation and expectations have become imbedded, it's very hard to catch up, as you said too.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': 'There is some risk in putting [our faith] in fundamentals in the sense that we may reassemble in May and look back, if we do have a couple of bad numbers, on almost three quarters of an imbedded trend in core CPI at 4-1/2 percent. But at this stage I would support the Chairman\'s judgment to ride this out a bit longer before responding and therefore hold off. I don\'t know that there\'s much advantage in trying to signal with an asymmetric directive; we might as well make a judgment as we go along here. So, I would support ""B"" symmetric and the alternative language. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Melzer. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': 'It seems to me that there is some possibility that we\'ve eased in real rate terms as this inflation rate has gone up; so, that\'s something to think about.In general I am concerned that if we get a couple of bad [inflation] numbers, the market will respond.And the market will also start to wonder whether we\'re still on the job.I don\'t feel comfortable putting our faith in a quirky index with no persuasive economic logic as well as indicators on the other side.There is some risk in putting [our faith] in fundamentals in the sense that we may reassemble in May and look back, if we do have a couple of bad numbers, on almost three quarters of an imbedded trend in core CPI at 4-1/2 percent.But at this stage I would support the Chairman\'s judgment to ride this out a bit longer before responding and therefore hold off.I don\'t know that there\'s much advantage in trying to signal with an asymmetric directive; we might as well make a judgment as we go along here.So, I would support ""B"" symmetric and the alternative language.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Melzer.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,
697,701,19930518_67_1,MR. JORDAN.,"""In reading the Greenbook for this meeting and listening to your comments and then thinking back over the analysis in the Greenbooks over the last 8 or 9 months and the swings in sentiment and developments as reported in various statistical [measures], it's tempting to have a sense of security that we're in a sort of fail-safe zone:""","In reading the Greenbook for this meeting and listening to your comments and then thinking back over the analysis in the Greenbooks over the last 8 or 9 months and the swings in sentiment and developments as reported in various statistical [measures], it's tempting to have a sense of security that we're in a sort of fail-safe zone: That in the longer term nothing much can really go wrong even though we get surprised in the short run. We entered the fourth quarter with an expectation of a quite weak quarter in nominal GDP and real GDP with a 3 percent funds rate. And the surprise was that it was a much, much stronger quarter than expected. During that quarter as we were looking ahead to '93, the first quarter in particular, there was an expectation of fairly strong nominal GDP growth and real output growth; the surprise was that real output growth [in the first quarter] was much weaker than expected. And by some measures prices have been much higher than expected, yet we still have a 3 percent funds rate. When I look at your forecast through '94 in terms of nominal growth, real growth, and inflation it assumes a continuation of the 3 percent funds rate. It is still the right number in spite of all of these developments. It seems to me--and this is where I'd like you to comment on the way your model works--that when we have a development like the first quarter and real output comes in weak and inflation is reported to be much higher, it's not something to be concerned about because it means that the real interest rate has fallen or the natural rate or something because of the higher inflation and that will take care of the weakness in real growth. But out in the future because of the slack, the gap, the NAIRU or something, inflation will decelerate; that will raise the real interest rate so that no matter what happens it's going to turn out that the 3 percent funds rate is the right rate. I'd be curious as to what it would take to persuade you that it's either too high or too low! [Laughter]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""So, overall import prices have not been rising very rapidly at all. In fact, for the first quarter, non-oil import prices are estimated to have declined. So I don't think to date that we've seen, overall, a major unfavorable impact from import prices. In particular areas it has been a factor. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Jordan. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""There is some uncertainty about whether that's going to persist in the coming months.Of course, this will depend in part on decisions that are made about protectionist measures.Basically, the improvement in profits has largely conformed to the typical pattern of profits moving up with an acceleration in activity and a related jump in productivity.I assume we've had a rather typical cyclical pattern in that respect.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'What, incidentally, is the accounting addition of import prices on the CPI?In other words, to what extent are import prices affecting the CPI and in what direction?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Well, on net, there probably has not been a very great influence to date.The Japanese automobiles are one story, but exchange rates against other currencies haven't been adverse.So, overall import prices have not been rising very rapidly at all.In fact, for the first quarter, non-oil import prices are estimated to have declined.So I don't think to date that we've seen, overall, a major unfavorable impact from import prices.In particular areas it has been a factor.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Jordan.'}]",yes,yes,,,utterance
698,702,19930707_515_1,MR. PARRY.,"""Mr. Chairman, I would support your recommendation.""","Mr. Chairman, I would support your recommendation. I think a case could be made for symmetry but, given where we are today and also given my own utility function with regard to inflation, I would just as soon [retain] the asymmetry.","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': ""So, I think no change in policy is clearly the right prescription. I have a preference for symmetry, if only on a theoretical basis, in the sense that it seems probable to me that we will not move in either direction, and that in my mind calls for a symmetric directive. However, having just had an asymmetric directive, I can understand that there may be some problems in moving to symmetry. So, I would certainly not object to asymmetry, particularly in view of your statement that it wouldn't presuppose any policy action. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': 'Well, Mr. Chairman, when I read those forecasts in the Wall Street Journal yesterday I became very concerned because everybody seemed to be warm and cuddly together![Laughter]'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'You know, they really were remarkably close.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': ""They are clustered.Well, I would certainly support your prescription with respect to no change in policy.I think everything that's going on in the real economy, the uncertainty, and the fact that we've lowered our GDP forecasts a little, all argue very strongly for a stable monetary policy, particularly in view of the fact that the inflation numbers have improved somewhat.So, I think no change in policy is clearly the right prescription.I have a preference for symmetry, if only on a theoretical basis, in the sense that it seems probable to me that we will not move in either direction, and that in my mind calls for a symmetric directive.However, having just had an asymmetric directive, I can understand that there may be some problems in moving to symmetry.So, I would certainly not object to asymmetry, particularly in view of your statement that it wouldn't presuppose any policy action.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,-5 sentences
699,703,19930707_519_3,MR. KEEHN.,"""And, therefore, I think what you recommend is appropriate.""","While I might have had a slight preference for symmetry, I very much support your recommendation primarily for the reason Al Broaddus mentioned. If there were another leak reflecting a change from asymmetry to symmetry this time, it would be very awkward in the marketplace. And, therefore, I think what you recommend is appropriate.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""I think the case for a steady policy is a strong one, and you've laid it out. On the issue of symmetry or asymmetry, if one looked just to the decision today without regard to what happened in the current [intermeeting] period, I think one could make an intellectual case for symmetry. But having moved to asymmetry, I think the balance of the evidence says we ought to stay where we are with the asymmetry. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Keehn. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': ""I have a preference for symmetry, if only on a theoretical basis, in the sense that it seems probable to me that we will not move in either direction, and that in my mind calls for a symmetric directive.However, having just had an asymmetric directive, I can understand that there may be some problems in moving to symmetry.So, I would certainly not object to asymmetry, particularly in view of your statement that it wouldn't presuppose any policy action.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I would support your recommendation.I think a case could be made for symmetry but, given where we are today and also given my own utility function with regard to inflation, I would just as soon [retain] the asymmetry.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""I think the case for a steady policy is a strong one, and you've laid it out.On the issue of symmetry or asymmetry, if one looked just to the decision today without regard to what happened in the current [intermeeting] period, I think one could make an intellectual case for symmetry.But having moved to asymmetry, I think the balance of the evidence says we ought to stay where we are with the asymmetry.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Keehn.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,-5 sentences
700,704,19930707_543_1,MR. ANGELL.,"""Well, I'm clearly not in tune with the other members of the FOMC.""","Well, I'm clearly not in tune with the other members of the FOMC. I don't see any need to wait for any information. The markets provide indications every day as to whether or not we've provided more liquidity than is called for. And when we lowered the fed funds rate from 4 percent to 3 percent, my guess is that made very, very little difference in the rate of real GDP growth. The destabilizing factors that have led people to hold, shift, or use their balances as much as they have was, I think, a drag against the stimulus that was already in place. A 4 percent fed funds rate already was providing a lot of stimulus. We already had pegged the fed funds rate well below the natural rate of interest. We now have evidence, and we see it in our own staff's forecast, that the expected rate of inflation has moved up 0.6 or 0.7 percent just [since the May FOMC] meeting. Now, in that environment, policy is not stable. We do not have the same policy that we had at the last meeting because the real rate of interest by our best estimate has fallen to even more sharply negative territory. We clearly see in the price of gold that people are making bets out there. And we continue to lock in to a fed funds rate that will only aggravate that kind of speculation and it only detracts from the role of the U.S. currency as the stable currency for the world. The cost to the world of the United States pursuing inflationary policies in the late 1960s and the 1970s is unbelievable. We're still paying the cost because many other central banks with no confidence in us think they have to be Rambo-like in beating their chests because in some sense they've got a track for the inflation-induced environment that the Federal Reserve as the world's reserve currency provides. This is the time for us to move real interest rates back at least to zero. I would be satisfied to do a measly 1/4 percentage point, which would not get us back to zero, but there would be intervention value in that. There wouldn't be any harm in it. Is there anyone who really believes the U.S. economy, regardless of what is done on the fiscal [side], is going to suffer because the funds rate goes up from 3 to 3-1/4 percent? Now, I read Henry Kauffman, as many of you must have, and it's just absurd. Well, I must be the one that's absurd! Thank you.","[{'speaker': 'MR. OLTMAN.', 'text': ""I support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman. Perhaps if we were starting from scratch, I would have some preference for symmetry but I don't think we ought to change [from asymmetry]. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Vice Chairman. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': ""I support your proposal, Mr. Chairman, and I also agree with Tom Melzer's arguments as well. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Angell. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""But eventually the time will come when it's no longer a warning shot and we will be trying to chase a train that already left the station.Other people have said that over time at these meetings.I think what you've suggested for this meeting is quite appropriate.But I just hope we will be attentive in the direction that I'm expressing here as we move forward.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, we're talking about a very narrow range of differences here and, regardless of whether one's personal preference is asymmetry or symmetry, the overriding point right now with this narrow range of differences is that we not change.And as a consequence, I will support your recommendation.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'First Vice President Oltman.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. OLTMAN.', 'text': ""I support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman.Perhaps if we were starting from scratch, I would have some preference for symmetry but I don't think we ought to change [from asymmetry].""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Vice Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': ""I support your proposal, Mr. Chairman, and I also agree with Tom Melzer's arguments as well.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Angell.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,entailment,utterance
701,705,19931116_172_5,MR. MELZER.,"""We'd have the litigation and ultimately be subjected to some judgment in the courts.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': ""So that's not based upon any strong opinion? ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'No. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': ""With the edited transcript we might provide some sense that we're being more forthcoming even though it conveys the same information as the MOD. Okay, thank you. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Melzer. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': 'It sounds a bit like minutes--not that I think this is a big difference--and might be marginally harder to defend when they come after us, as they will.Was there any special reason for recommending an MOD as opposed to something like an edited transcript going forward if in fact, as I take it, the substance of it would be exactly the same?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Frankly, I had thought, but merely from hearsay, that the MOD was a significantly contracted version of an edited transcript.I found out from the examples that have been proposed here that that is factually false.The difference is really very negligible; for all practical purposes an MOD has all the information that is on the transcript.It's frankly easier to read and in many respects, if the purpose is scholarly, probably is more useful to the public.But if you're asking me do I have any strong opinions, that's--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': ""So that's not based upon any strong opinion?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'No.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': ""With the edited transcript we might provide some sense that we're being more forthcoming even though it conveys the same information as the MOD.Okay, thank you.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Melzer.'}]",no,,,,
702,706,19931116_189_1,MR. KELLEY.,"""Virgil, I wonder how much more comfort we might have if it were possible to get something in the way of a firm official position from the Justice Department relative to FOIA and the Archivist relative to the [Federal] Records Act.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. LAWARE.', 'text': 'So if they needed all of this to overlook the historic performance, will they not insist on having it prospectively? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MATTINGLY.', 'text': ""Chairman Gonzalez's letter says he wants to work out an agreement on that with this Committee. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LAWARE.', 'text': ""So it seems to me that that's another issue we have to address: Not just what we're going to release to the public, possibly in the form of a Memorandum of Discussion, but whether in fact there's going to be a demand that we continue to release tapes and transcripts as they are generated in the process of doing the Memorandum of Discussion, regardless of what the Archivist says. [I say that] because, as I understand you, Congress can ask for anything it wants. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. LAWARE.', 'text': ""And if there is some prurient interest in these unedited transcripts and tapes retrospectively is that going to prompt them to ask us to share with the [House] Committee unedited tapes and transcripts prospectively as part of their oversight of monetary policy?I understand the rationale in the sometimes opaque language in these letters; it's all under that oversight umbrella.So if they needed all of this to overlook the historic performance, will they not insist on having it prospectively?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MATTINGLY.', 'text': ""Chairman Gonzalez's letter says he wants to work out an agreement on that with this Committee.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LAWARE.', 'text': ""So it seems to me that that's another issue we have to address: Not just what we're going to release to the public, possibly in the form of a Memorandum of Discussion, but whether in fact there's going to be a demand that we continue to release tapes and transcripts as they are generated in the process of doing the Memorandum of Discussion, regardless of what the Archivist says.[I say that] because, as I understand you, Congress can ask for anything it wants.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley.'}]",no,,,,
703,707,19931221_151_12,MR. BROADDUS.,"""In this regard I think the 1/2 point backup in long-term interest rates we've seen recently is a warning.""","Mr. Chairman, I certainly respect your position but, as I said earlier, I think the accumulation of positive economic news that we're seeing now is really quite extraordinary. And in this situation I think the time has come to let real short-term interest rates rise in order to make this expansion a sustainable one and keep it from getting out of hand on the up side. And I really think we need to move now. I recognize that there are certainly arguments for not moving yet, but the fact is that there are always such arguments. And we know from long experience that we can get into a lot of trouble if we wait too long. If we [wait] this time, we risk a significant deterioration in inflation expectations and we risk a further backup in long-term interest rates. And my view is that the risks of that kind of outcome would harm the economy; [the cost in terms of] growth of jobs and production and the general health of the economy is significantly greater than a moderate tightening of monetary policy. And when I say moderate tightening, I have in mind something like a 1/4 point on interest rates. I know this is a turn in direction and I know that's important. But a 1/4 point increase is not exactly a lethal weapon. In this regard I think the 1/2 point backup in long-term interest rates we've seen recently is a warning. We still have time to heed it. I realize, of course, that this is a difficult time for the Fed; we are under attack on a number of fronts. But in my view that makes it all the more imperative that we signal clearly and promptly that we're not going to be distracted from our principal longer-term objective. So, I would favor a 1/4 point increase in the funds rate now.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I think it is quite likely that after the current quarter we will see more moderate growth next year and, therefore, I could support alternative B. It's a little hard for me to reach the conclusion that the risks are symmetrical, which leads me into the direction of thinking that there is a case for asymmetry toward restraint. But I could easily buy the symmetry if I also would get what Ed Boehne offered. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Broaddus. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'I think the days of this degree of accommodation are numbered.It\'s likely to be sooner rather than later that we\'ll have to reduce the level of accommodation.I do think, however, that we\'re in a period of wait-and-see.And when we do move, I believe that this Committee should vote explicitly to make that decision because it\'s so important.And for that reason I think we ought to have a symmetrical directive and face up to the issue squarely when the time comes and everybody will be on the record as saying: ""This is what we\'re going to do.""'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I think it is quite likely that after the current quarter we will see more moderate growth next year and, therefore, I could support alternative B.It's a little hard for me to reach the conclusion that the risks are symmetrical, which leads me into the direction of thinking that there is a case for asymmetry toward restraint.But I could easily buy the symmetry if I also would get what Ed Boehne offered.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Broaddus.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,entailment,utterance
704,708,19940204_98_6,MR. LINDSEY.,"""I wonder if that adjustment would change your conclusions about a rebound in homeownership?""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Mobile homes run a quarter of a million a year, so if you tacked on 100,000 or 200,000 houses as prefabs or whatever, that third would be easily attainable. I just don't know. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'You are quite right. It is attainable if they include mobile homes. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""I'll try to get more precise data. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Yes, a lot of that type of construction goes on; I don't know what the number is.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': 'They may be including prefabs plus mobile homes, in which case--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'No, I think usually when they talk about manufactured homes they talk about the fact that they build the various structures in a factory and bring them on site for assembly.The trouble with the concept is that it varies in so many different instances as to what degree of prefabrication goes on.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': 'This prefabrication total has to be awfully high.You see these structures coming in on the trucks--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""If it's a third, it has to be far more--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'That seems high.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Well, if they were including mobile homes, then that might be a quite plausible number.Mobile homes run a quarter of a million a year, so if you tacked on 100,000 or 200,000 houses as prefabs or whatever, that third would be easily attainable.I just don't know.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'You are quite right.It is attainable if they include mobile homes.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""I'll try to get more precise data.""}]",no,,,,
705,709,19940322_248_5,MR. MELZER.,"""Our practice is going to lock us into that because my sense is we won't get back to these other disclosure issues for some months, and there may be other actions to announce in the meantime.""","Okay. I'm just expressing some views at this point. The other point I would make is that I'm not sure I agree with what Larry Lindsey was saying. We are doing something here that, if it's done well and announced properly, will have a very positive public effect. Our practice is going to lock us into that because my sense is we won't get back to these other disclosure issues for some months, and there may be other actions to announce in the meantime. So, our provisional behavior is in effect going to set the precedent and lock us into a policy, and it will be anti-climatic when we announce it. Personally, I think we can get much more mileage out of announcing the fact that this decision has been made and just get it done. In effect, we are trading it away anyway, so why not announce it and try to get some public relations benefit out of it. The other thing I would say in such an announcement is that we continue to have our disclosure practices under review, because I think there are some other disclosure issues that in due course need to be reviewed.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'The same thing could happen with the term ""reserve restraint."" In saying a slight change, the ""slight"" may equivocate-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'Yes. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Tom, let me just say that that's an interesting issue, but that's a very major question and I would hate to have that decision made at today's meeting. I almost prefer to stay with Governor Lindsey's suggestion and then when we get to the final decisions make that judgment. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'With respect.to what should be released, and maybe I misunderstood a little what we discussed in the subcommittee, I personally would favor releasing only a statement with respect to an increased or decreased degree of pressure on reserve positions.I think any statement with respect to the impact on short-term market rates, in effect, is something that will be decoded.In other words, we will be using different adjectives to describe what we think the effect on money market interest rates is going to be and then we\'ll be de facto announcing our targets.""Small"" will mean 25 basis points; ""moderate"" will mean 50 basis points.I don\'t know what more than 50 would mean; that doesn\'t seem very likely!'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'The same thing could happen with the term ""reserve restraint.""In saying a slight change, the ""slight"" may equivocate--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Tom, let me just say that that's an interesting issue, but that's a very major question and I would hate to have that decision made at today's meeting.I almost prefer to stay with Governor Lindsey's suggestion and then when we get to the final decisions make that judgment.""}]",yes,no,,,
706,710,19940517_77_7,MR. PRELL.,"""We feel that the 2-1/2 percent potential is a reasonable working assumption.""","Our working assumption is that, in the near term, potential output growth is about 2-1/2 percent. I think one might take a more optimistic view of the underlying productivity trend--assign more of the increase we've seen over the past few years to perhaps sustainable underlying trend growth, as opposed to the normal cyclical component. But we think that's going out on a limb a bit at this point. We've already assumed a considerable pickup in trend productivity growth from what we were experiencing prior to the 1990s. On the labor force side, we haven't seen much lift yet in labor force participation and the population trends are very hard to read. It's conceivable that the trend in labor force growth isn't even quite so strong as we've anticipated, which is not robust by historical standards. We feel that the 2-1/2 percent potential is a reasonable working assumption. We don't advocate that the Committee take that number as gospel and make its policies on that assumption and close its eyes to the incoming evidence. But we think that's a reasonable estimate for now. I must say that, for example, in a recent Business Week article there was much talk about how the world was changing in terms of productivity growth, and I think high-tech investment is one of the elements in that story. In quantitative terms, the net investment from that kind of equipment isn't very large because it's rather short-lived; it turns over relatively rapidly. So the capital stock in that sense isn't growing very rapidly. But if you believe that it is affording firms the opportunity to reorganize in major ways the way they do things and is really creating disproportionate efficiences in a sense, then I think you can make a case for stronger growth. The other thing I found puzzling in that article was that it said because of all of this, one needn't worry so much about inflation. And the key argument it made was that if there were pressures, firms would just ship production abroad. Well, that's a rather puzzling argument. It says basically that you can avoid inflation by sucking in imports, but that doesn't really enhance domestic economic growth in the GDP sense. So, I think there's some loose thinking behind some of the more optimistic stories.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""There has been a fair amount of discussion about capacity--how much of it we have left before we have inflationary pressures--and about the growth potential of the economy. Most of these estimates, particularly the growth potential, can change with seemingly small changes in assumptions, like labor force participation rates, productivity increases, and that sort of thing. I presume that you are thinking of a capacity growth rate of maybe 2-1/2 percent or maybe 2-1/2 to 3 percent. Do you have a view as to whether we're likely to be on the high end of a range like that or on the low end, given the recent trends in labor participation and what appears to be fairly strong capital spending, especially equipment spending? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""So, notionally, in framing this forecast we've been thinking that GDP in the first quarter was probably a little less than the 2.6 percent, probably 2 percent plus rather than what the incoming data just mechanically would suggest.And then we made an estimate of, in essence, the best change for the second quarter, and that's what gives us an estimate of something over 3 percent for the first half.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LAWARE.', 'text': 'Thank you.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""There has been a fair amount of discussion about capacity--how much of it we have left before we have inflationary pressures--and about the growth potential of the economy.Most of these estimates, particularly the growth potential, can change with seemingly small changes in assumptions, like labor force participation rates, productivity increases, and that sort of thing.I presume that you are thinking of a capacity growth rate of maybe 2-1/2 percent or maybe 2-1/2 to 3 percent.Do you have a view as to whether we're likely to be on the high end of a range like that or on the low end, given the recent trends in labor participation and what appears to be fairly strong capital spending, especially equipment spending?""}]",yes,no,,,
707,711,19940706_474_7,MR. PARRY.,"""In fact, such a number probably would be one I would want to react to least.""","Right. As far as an announcement is concerned, I think one is probably necessary following this meeting. It seems to me that to announce the fact that the meeting is over is subtle enough that I am sure markets could deal with that! Finally, unless I am missing something, the discussion about waiting until a bad CPI number comes out is one I am very troubled by. It seems to me that we spent the last six months telling people that we can't wait for bad inflation news before we act, that it takes 12 to 18 months for policy to have an impact on inflation. The tactic of waiting until a bad number comes out, for whatever purpose, is just an incorrect approach. In fact, such a number probably would be one I would want to react to least. Thank you.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'From my viewpoint if there ever was a good time for asymmetry, this is it. I also feel that having a conference call perhaps toward the end of the month is a good idea. It would give us an opportunity to review some of the statistics that are coming out, but in addition it would be an opportunity for you to share with us some of your own views about the testimony, which will have been completed as well. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I forgot about that; that is an important point. It might be useful, irrespective of what is going on, just to have a telephone conference after Humphrey-Hawkins. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': 'It would be very helpful to get that settled soon and inform the market.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I would support alternative B because I think the extent and duration of the moderating growth are uncertain at this point.I do think, though, that we may receive information in the next several weeks that will indicate more clearly whether this moderating is going to continue, or if we are going to follow a path that is more closely aligned with that of the Greenbook.From my viewpoint if there ever was a good time for asymmetry, this is it.I also feel that having a conference call perhaps toward the end of the month is a good idea.It would give us an opportunity to review some of the statistics that are coming out, but in addition it would be an opportunity for you to share with us some of your own views about the testimony, which will have been completed as well.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I forgot about that; that is an important point.It might be useful, irrespective of what is going on, just to have a telephone conference after Humphrey-Hawkins.'}]",yes,yes,,ambiguous,
708,712,19940706_482_4,MR. KELLEY.,"""It's not necessary for us to achieve precision there.""","I support your suggestion, Mr. Chairman, with ""B"" asymmetric. As far as an announcement goes, I like Ed Boehne's suggestion also. I would like to add that I don't think it's desirable that we tie ourselves into knots here trying to define asymmetry. It's not necessary for us to achieve precision there. To me, it's just a broad indication of a bias, or a leaning, or a concern, or whatever qualitative word you want to use, and that is quite adequate and quite useful to have available. I am comfortable to leave it at that.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""May of last year comes to mind in that context. So, as long as we have a good sense as to what we want to do with policy, I think that is all we really need to operate. Therefore, I prefer symmetric language, but I don't feel that strongly about it. In terms of the announcement, it is a bit of a dilemma, but the choice that Ed Boehne suggests seems to be a good way of dealing with that particular problem. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I came to the meeting in favor of alternative B with a bias toward tightening.I think you made a very strong case for that choice, and I certainly support that.Even so, I would slightly favor symmetric language, not because I think an asymmetric policy is an inappropriate stance--I think our next move is likely to be toward tightening--but because I just am not sure what asymmetric language really buys for us.On the other side of that coin, we have had some bad experiences, it seems to me, with asymmetric language.May of last year comes to mind in that context.So, as long as we have a good sense as to what we want to do with policy, I think that is all we really need to operate.Therefore, I prefer symmetric language, but I don't feel that strongly about it.In terms of the announcement, it is a bit of a dilemma, but the choice that Ed Boehne suggests seems to be a good way of dealing with that particular problem.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,,
709,713,19940927_27_8,MR. FISHER.,"""We would be doing that ourselves at some remove from German market custody arrangements.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'It could come from either side. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'I think it might be worth reminding the Committee that the present Minister of Trade and Industry has in fact had some very tough comments to make, and he would be the official who could very well be deemed to be the appropriate spokesman from their side. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'I would remind the Committee--as I think I mentioned at our last meeting--that when the dollar dropped July 30th, 31st, and August 1st on the announcement of Super 301, my view was that rhetoric coming from the Japanese side had caused that drop, albeit as I mentioned last month in rather thin markets in New Zealand. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Forrestal. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': 'Peter, on the memorandum, what kind of increased risks do we incur by moving to a private party and not working with the central bank? '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': ""I have a follow-up on Governor Blinder's question.If there were to be rhetoric of a warlike nature from Japanese government officials, I would assume that the effect on the dollar/yen could also be quite dramatic.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'Absolutely, yes.I meant to include that in my initial remarks.It could come from either side.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'I think it might be worth reminding the Committee that the present Minister of Trade and Industry has in fact had some very tough comments to make, and he would be the official who could very well be deemed to be the appropriate spokesman from their side.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'I would remind the Committee--as I think I mentioned at our last meeting--that when the dollar dropped July 30th, 31st, and August 1st on the announcement of Super 301, my view was that rhetoric coming from the Japanese side had caused that drop, albeit as I mentioned last month in rather thin markets in New Zealand.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Forrestal.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': 'Peter, on the memorandum, what kind of increased risks do we incur by moving to a private party and not working with the central bank?'}]",no,,,,
710,714,19940927_180_1,MR. HOENIG.,"""Mr. Chairman, I would support your recommendation.""","Mr. Chairman, I would support your recommendation. However, I would note that there are inflationary pressures in train. I think they are fairly evident, and we might be well served if we were to act sooner. Therefore, I would support your asymmetric proposal, and if the data come out at all strong, I would encourage you to move before the November meeting.","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': ""So then somebody could write a learned article about the hawks and the doves and who did what to whom, and that at the end of the day we did 25 basis points because we couldn't decide which of the other things to do. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'You mean the hawk and the dove combine as a turkey. [Laughter] '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'So, Mr. Chairman, I firmly agree that ""B"" tilted toward tightening is the appropriate policy decision. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoenig. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': ""On the other hand, I am not at all convinced that the credibility argument demands, because there's a greater probability of a tightening move than we might have thought at the last meeting, that we have to tighten today.When the next move takes place, as you already mentioned in your presentation, it would likely be a move of 50 basis points.I agree very strongly that that would be the appropriate move--that it should be either zero or 50.I think a 25 basis point move, if that should present itself as an idea to anybody, could very easily and almost certainly would be inappropriately construed as either indicating a degree of timidity, which would not reflect the view of the Committee, or worse still would indicate a compromise.So then somebody could write a learned article about the hawks and the doves and who did what to whom, and that at the end of the day we did 25 basis points because we couldn't decide which of the other things to do.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'You mean the hawk and the dove combine as a turkey.[Laughter]'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'So, Mr. Chairman, I firmly agree that ""B"" tilted toward tightening is the appropriate policy decision.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoenig.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,entailment,-5 sentences
711,715,19941115_134_17,MR. BOEHNE.,"""With timely actions going forward, we have a good chance of keeping inflationary pressures in check and the expansion on track.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'We already are seeing inflationary pressures, not just at the early stages of production but at the final stages as well. As Bill McDonough said, inflation starts out very slowly, and that is what we are seeing. On a year-over-year basis, virtually all the price indices as well as the employment cost index and average hourly earnings have either bottomed out or are showing increases in recent months. So, it seems to me that the issue before us now is not whether inflation will be picking up, but how much and over what time horizon. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'Domestic spending remains strong; export growth is trending upward.With the exception of housing, it is difficult to see any immediate signs of a slowdown.Indeed, activity appears to be picking up in several industries, particularly manufacturing.At current interest rates, I would expect real GDP growth to remain above potential for at least the next three quarters.As a result, with the economy already at more than full employment, an upturn in inflation seems inevitable.We already are seeing inflationary pressures, not just at the early stages of production but at the final stages as well.As Bill McDonough said, inflation starts out very slowly, and that is what we are seeing.On a year-over-year basis, virtually all the price indices as well as the employment cost index and average hourly earnings have either bottomed out or are showing increases in recent months.So, it seems to me that the issue before us now is not whether inflation will be picking up, but how much and over what time horizon.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne.'}]",no,,,,
712,716,19941115_261_16,MR. JORDAN.,"""It is troubling to me that nothing has changed institutionally.""","Mr. Chairman, this to me is an exceedingly difficult issue and not one that this central bank or any central bank in today's world can solve by itself, whether by any unilateral declaration by us or even all the central banks. Both your initial remarks and your response to Al's comment, I think, highlight what the problem is. Since August 1971, this country has not had a policy toward its currency; it has had a sequence of policies, and sometimes they are consistent internally and sometimes externally. Therein lies the problem. It is not just the traders who don't know that sterilized intervention cannot produce results inconsistent with domestic monetary policy, but sometimes members of executive and legislative branches of the government, ours and other governments around the world, don't know that. The hazard comes from having the power to do these things in the context of outside expectations, that we do not share, that they will work. I remember being told that when President Nixon was confronted by his advisors--some of the outside people--about the issue of wage/price controls, he said: I don't believe in controls; I know they won't work; and you don't believe in controls; you know they won't work; but the people don't know that. And so we got controls. In the late 1970s, we had a policy toward the currency externally that was inconsistent with what at least I would want for domestic monetary policy. Earlier in the 1970s, as we were thrashing around for a policy, the Open Market Committee had a number of debates on the issue. At one point, Arthur Burns made what I thought at the time was a pretty effective argument, that the only way to be certain that you absolutely have to intervene is to declare you are never going to intervene and you will get some asymmetric bets in the foreign exchange markets. If you want to be in a position where you don't have to intervene in this institutional setting, you have to declare that you are willing to intervene massively and often to burn speculation and so on. It reminds me of Charlie Coombs' beartrap arguments. In the early 1980s, the Treasury tried out the idea of declaring unilaterally that we would never intervene. However people viewed that experience, the Treasury Department abruptly changed our currency policy at the beginning of 1985 in association with the Plaza Accord and the Louvre Accord and all of that. It is troubling to me that nothing has changed institutionally. In going forward, we can again find ourselves in a position with an executive or a legislative branch view that we can or should have a policy toward our currency in the international markets that is incompatible with what this Committee thinks is appropriate for domestic markets. We ought to attack that policy issue as something that our government in its totality needs to address.","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': ""When we renew the swap lines, it is such a routine matter that nobody pays any attention. If we didn't renew the swap lines, it would create an international hoopla of very considerable seriousness and, I think, a very negative one. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""We haven't used the swap lines. Indeed, all the intervention that has taken place has been profit-taking, because we have been selling off our deutschemark and yen reserves. President Jordan. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': ""It is a serious burden, but I think one that we really have no choice but to accept and carry forward.There is no question that if we undid the swap lines, it would be mainly a signal to the world.We haven't drawn on the swap lines since the 1970s, if I remember correctly.They are much more symbolic than real.But if we wanted to say to the rest of the world that we are beginning a retreat into Fortress America, it would naturally be through the swap lines.It is the classic case of the dog that didn't bark in the night.When we renew the swap lines, it is such a routine matter that nobody pays any attention.If we didn't renew the swap lines, it would create an international hoopla of very considerable seriousness and, I think, a very negative one.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""We haven't used the swap lines.Indeed, all the intervention that has taken place has been profit-taking, because we have been selling off our deutschemark and yen reserves.President Jordan.""}]",yes,no,,,
713,717,19950201_929_8,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""But there is where I think our problem is.""","Terrific! In answer to your question, Ted is exactly right. The risk is not a financial risk that we have here, but we do have a risk. The risk is essentially political--not in the sense that we are subjected to political pressures. It is in the fact that people are trying to get us to do things that I suspect cannot possibly be done effectively, efficiently, or otherwise. That is a problem that we are going to have to confront. I am not sure exactly how we are going to come out of this, or how we will handle it. But there is where I think our problem is. Anyone who has some great ideas is welcome to throw them in, especially if he or she can explain to me what the game of zipswitch is all about!","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': '[Laughter] '}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'Even though you have not been asked, it has been reported that you have agreed! '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Agreed to what? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'To umpire zipswitch. [Laughter] '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'That was earlier; yesterday he spoke with Ted.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""So I heard what was involved, but I was asked only after the fact--as if it could be pulled back after a public release.That is the sole official request that I have gotten from anybody.I have heard a lot of rumors about all of this.Ted tells me about the different initiatives that are going on and what pieces of paper are being circulated.But nobody has approached us and asked us to get involved in this.It is a very vague thing; it is like asking me to umpire the new game of zipswitch, and I would say, what?[Laughter] I don't know what the rules are.I don't know who the players are.I don't know what is going on, but am I to be the umpire?And they say, sure, why not?[Laughter]""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'Even though you have not been asked, it has been reported that you have agreed!'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Agreed to what?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'To umpire zipswitch.[Laughter]'}]",yes,no,,,
714,718,19960131_195_1,MR. BROADDUS.,"""Still, making it explicit in this way imposes discipline.""","Still, making it explicit in this way imposes discipline. It adds a degree of credibility and accountability that I think we don't have now. It would move us a step forward. I don't think it's revolutionary. It will never solve all our problems, put it's a step in the right direction.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': ""A longer time frame would probably be more appropriate given the lags, Mike, and that's why I said 1996-1997. Again, I am not talking about trying to control the inflation rate in any mechanical way; we can't do that. I am simply saying that we would make a statement that we would evaluate all of our short-term policy actions over this period of time--especially those in the near term where the lag is long enough presumably to have some effect on the inflation rate during the two-year period--in a way that would bias the outcome toward this result. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""I am going to be very disappointed if we don't achieve your guideline in 1996, and I have some confidence that we will. But I think that will be a result of developments and polices that are already in train. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': 'My question is, if monetary policy exerts its impact with a lag, whether we are currently in a position to do anything to affect 1996 beyond events that are already in train or policies that have already been implemented.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': ""A longer time frame would probably be more appropriate given the lags, Mike, and that's why I said 1996-1997.Again, I am not talking about trying to control the inflation rate in any mechanical way; we can't do that.I am simply saying that we would make a statement that we would evaluate all of our short-term policy actions over this period of time--especially those in the near term where the lag is long enough presumably to have some effect on the inflation rate during the two-year period--in a way that would bias the outcome toward this result.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""I am going to be very disappointed if we don't achieve your guideline in 1996, and I have some confidence that we will.But I think that will be a result of developments and polices that are already in train.""}]",yes,,,,
715,719,19960703_527_14,VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.,"""On the other hand, our not having that tool available to us is a product of the fact that in the 1970s, whenever it was, nobody thought we would need it, so we did not get it.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'I would suggest that we think hard about that issue; that would be one of the clearer lines in the sand that we would have to draw. I remember in our discussion of the Mexican bailout that we all knew we were going a bit out on a limb for a year. We viewed that as a long time, and we certainly did not want to go beyond a year. If we are going to focus on this and we want to avoid the appearance of an extension of credit, I would think that the duration has to be a lot less than a year. Maybe it should be a matter of weeks. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'I believe the way to think of this is in terms of the probability that we may need to intervene for good reasons versus purely domestic political considerations.The second issue is one of duration.I do not remember any discussion of this although, Bill, you did allude to it.We could have a two-day reverse repo or a three-day reverse repo, but if we renew it 100 times, it suddenly becomes what I would call a real extension of credit.I would suggest that we think hard about that issue; that would be one of the clearer lines in the sand that we would have to draw.I remember in our discussion of the Mexican bailout that we all knew we were going a bit out on a limb for a year.We viewed that as a long time, and we certainly did not want to go beyond a year.If we are going to focus on this and we want to avoid the appearance of an extension of credit, I would think that the duration has to be a lot less than a year.Maybe it should be a matter of weeks.'}]",no,,,,
716,720,19961113_32_13,MR. PRELL.,"""While we do not see clear evidence that by historical standards people are unusually uncertain at this point about job prospects, there remains some general sense that all is not well and that jobs are not secure, so there could be some rise in precautionary saving levels.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'I do not have any particular insight on that, but that may be one aspect of the situation that should make one cautious about jumping to conclusions. But on the face of it-- '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Is there any correlation between the saving rate and the statistical discrepancy? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'I cannot give you an answer to that off the top of my head. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I would assume that Commerce would be doing that sort of analysis in looking for the causes of the statistical discrepancy and presumably making adjustments where they could. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'If we were to take the published personal saving rate and adjust it for the econometric evidence of the impact of changes in household wealth on that statistic, is there any question as to whether we would be looking at a secular updrift?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'I think there always is a question about the behavior of the saving rate, particularly when we are estimating it ahead of the annual revisions of the NIPAs.We have seen saving rate trajectories altered considerably by those statistical revisions.Given that we feel that GDP growth may have been underestimated, it is not inconceivable that a part of those revenues could be in consumption expenditures.I do not have any particular insight on that, but that may be one aspect of the situation that should make one cautious about jumping to conclusions.But on the face of it--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Is there any correlation between the saving rate and the statistical discrepancy?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'I cannot give you an answer to that off the top of my head.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I would assume that Commerce would be doing that sort of analysis in looking for the causes of the statistical discrepancy and presumably making adjustments where they could.'}]",no,,,,
717,721,19980701_252_11,MS. MINEHAN.,"""That is a good thing.""","I come at this issue from a position that is opposite from Governor Meyer's and closer to yours, Mr. Chairman. I think that the value of the aggregates in terms of communications focuses on the long term rather than the short run. I went back to look at the original language of the Humphrey-Hawkins legislation, and I concluded that the focus of that language is on communicating the ranges that the Committee plans for various aggregates. Since the enactment of that legislation, the Committee has been explaining how difficult it is to plan for any of the aggregates and how they are affected by numerous variables. It seems to me that for short periods of time, like a half year for 1998 and a full year for 1999, we are better off focusing on our longer-term goals rather than trying to project or establish plans for variables that are subject to an enormous amount of change, as evidenced by all the factors that we talked about earlier. I think the communications value of these aggregates is better if they focus on longer-run objectives. I also think that by keeping the ranges where they are, we do not lose the value of M2 in our own deliberations. The point was made earlier that it is widely recognized that monetary targets are not intermediate variables. They are in the array of variables that we look at to determine what is going on. We may be able to look at them with more confidence now that relationships seem to have stabilized a little. That is a good thing. But that does not mean that we have to change these ranges just because we are looking at them with somewhat more seriousness and perhaps using them to a greater extent than we did before. I think the communications value of these is exactly the way you put it. I could go with either alternative I or alternative III. My inclination is to stay where we are.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MEYER.', 'text': ""Let me suggest a few possibilities. First, it might be appropriate for the Chairman to note in his upcoming Humphrey-Hawkins testimony that the Committee is moving toward paying somewhat closer attention to money growth, if there is some agreement here that that is the case. Second, perhaps we could ask the staff to adjust the alternative II ranges to make them more consistent with the Committee's forecast and for them to think more about how to accomplish this. Third, perhaps we should retain the alternative I ranges at this meeting but keep track of the adjusted alternative II ranges and see how useful they are relative to forthcoming developments in M2 as we think about our policy choices over the months ahead. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Minehan. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MEYER.', 'text': ""I personally am ready to move to a projections interpretation of the ranges, though in this case the numerical ranges in alternative II should be adjusted to make them consistent with a FOMC consensus forecast.The staff, however, does not have the necessary information to make the adjustment because they need the FOMC's projections of short-term interest rates as well as nominal income.Let me suggest a few possibilities.First, it might be appropriate for the Chairman to note in his upcoming Humphrey-Hawkins testimony that the Committee is moving toward paying somewhat closer attention to money growth, if there is some agreement here that that is the case.Second, perhaps we could ask the staff to adjust the alternative II ranges to make them more consistent with the Committee's forecast and for them to think more about how to accomplish this.Third, perhaps we should retain the alternative I ranges at this meeting but keep track of the adjusted alternative II ranges and see how useful they are relative to forthcoming developments in M2 as we think about our policy choices over the months ahead.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Minehan.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
718,722,19980701_302_3,MR. JORDAN.,"""That would be absolutely delightful.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Obviously, I am delighted with the staffs upward revisions in its estimates of productivity growth and potential output growth, and I will be even more pleased if future revisions are also upward to 3, 3-1/4, or even 3-1/2 percent, which I guess was the highest in history. That would be absolutely delightful. I doubt that we will see it go above that and set a new record, but if that happens, that would be great! Nevertheless, such productivity growth is still not as rapid as the growth of demand, and that creates the problem that we have. I also am delighted with the unemployment rate being at 4.3 percent, and I hope it continues to go down. I would like to see it go to 4 percent or even below 4 percent. Low unemployment helps us to do wonderful things by providing opportunities for people. But it also sets a model for the rest of the world about what works. The longer we can sustain it, the more imitators around the world we are going to have. So, I hope we will not get ourselves into a situation where we have to take action. An unavoidable byproduct would be a higher unemployment rate. It would be not only bad for us, but also bad as a model for the rest of the world if we found ourselves faced with having to take such an action. When I look at the Asian situation, perhaps Latin America, and certainly Russia, I think we should ease policy. Unfortunately, we do not have the luxury of even considering that option at this time, and that is too bad. Maybe if nominal spending growth, money growth, and other things over the last year had been as forecast by the staff instead of coming in stronger, the economy might be more balanced right now and we might be able to entertain that possibility. Or maybe if we had responded earlier to indications that spending growth, domestic demand, and money and credit growth were coming in a lot stronger and the current account deficit was widening, we might have had the option of considering an easing sooner. I think we are going to need to ease for the sake of the rest of the world. The sooner we create the conditions within the domestic economy that will permit us to contemplate an easing of policy, the better off we are going to be and the better off the world is going to be. Unfortunately, we sometimes have to tack; we sometimes have to go in an opposite direction from where we really want to go to get there. I want to be in a world where we not only have lower inflation, but where we have lower interest rates, rapid economic growth, and sustained low unemployment. But I think we are approaching a point where we may have to go in a direction different from where we all want to come out.","[{'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'I think the external situation is not going to improve anytime soon. Therefore, I believe the wiser course for us at this stage is to sit tight. I guess ultimately this is the least unacceptable choice, but I think it is also the most responsible one. Therefore, I would make no change in either the funds rate or the asymmetry. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Jordan. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': ""I guess I fear, perhaps more than you do, that the staff's forecast for slower expansion without some policy intervention may be too optimistic.I do recognize that there are some indications of a little slowing right now, but I'm afraid those may be short-lived.I also think, based on other information we have received from the staff, that even if there is an updrift in productivity, that may call for a higher funds rate and not a lower funds rate in order to maintain equilibrium.So, while I am optimistic on both of those scores, I think the bias toward tightening that you recommend is right.However, in line with what the Vice Chair has said, I also am concerned about the international component of the forecast as I mentioned yesterday.I think the external situation is not going to improve anytime soon.Therefore, I believe the wiser course for us at this stage is to sit tight.I guess ultimately this is the least unacceptable choice, but I think it is also the most responsible one.Therefore, I would make no change in either the funds rate or the asymmetry.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Jordan.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,,
719,723,19980929_236_2,MR. FISHER.,"""I don't think anyone had seen one before the weekend of September 19 and 20.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Somebody mentioned to me that Bankers Trust had an August balance sheet for LTCM. Is that true? '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'Yes, but the balance sheet is a relatively small piece of the whole action because so much of the latter is off-balance-sheet. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': ""I don't think they had an August balance sheet on September 1. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'They may have one now. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'Beyond that issue, it should be emphasized that the lenders had very good collateral management systems so that if the LTCP began to lose on a position, it would need to put added collateral in place.What we have to get our hands around conceptually is whether there was something that we missed that could have provided us with some notion of just how big the overall position of LTCP had become.I don\'t know how we could have done that.We do not regulate that firm.But given the number of institutions they dealt with around the world, was there a way that should have enabled us to be more aware of their overall position?One is inclined to say, ""you bet.""But exactly how we could have done that I am not so sure.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Somebody mentioned to me that Bankers Trust had an August balance sheet for LTCM.Is that true?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'Yes, but the balance sheet is a relatively small piece of the whole action because so much of the latter is off-balance-sheet.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': ""I don't think they had an August balance sheet on September 1.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'They may have one now.'}]",no,,,,
720,724,19981117_124_5,MR. GRAMLICH.,"""Let me also say something that I have said before on other aspects of what we do.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': ""I think I support Peter Fisher and Bill McDonough on that. I polled the chairman on this, but I couldn't quite tell where he was coming out. [Laughter] ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'If you can figure out where I stand, let me know! [Laughter] '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""So, I think the presumption that the difference in yields for those two securities is very useful as an inflation indicator is dubious at this point.But I do think the issue is important, because one of the reasons for selling indexed securities is eventually to achieve a useful inflation indicator.Reaching that goal comes down to the question of how to get adequate supply and on-the-run characteristics that either will remove the illiquidity premium or stabilize it in a form that would make the yields on indexed securities useful.I don't know where that comes out with respect to the issue that Peter Fisher is raising, but I think it is important to recognize that the indexed-securities market has a long way to go before it will become very useful to us.Governor Gramlich.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': ""I think I support Peter Fisher and Bill McDonough on that.I polled the chairman on this, but I couldn't quite tell where he was coming out.[Laughter]""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'If you can figure out where I stand, let me know![Laughter]'}]",no,,,,
721,725,19990203_96_7,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""It is important for us to recognize that so we can monitor this and make certain we make some good judgments about where we are.""","That is what I am getting at. It is a full simulation effect. I would presume that if the price of crude oil went down, it would have even more of an effect. So, in a sense a not insignificant part of the forecast is dependent on an endeavor to make judgments about a very difficult issue. We do the best we can, but it is important to realize that we could be wrong on either side of that. We could very readily get an increase in West Texas Intermediate to $15 a barrel, and that would make a difference; or it could go down to $9 a barrel and that would throw the whole forecast off. It is important for us to recognize that so we can monitor this and make certain we make some good judgments about where we are. President Parry.","[{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': 'The assumptions we have made on both the import price side and on the oil price are critical factors in explaining the upturn we have forecast in inflation. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'There is a wage/price interaction, which means that the change in the crude oil price gives us a multiplier in the inflation rate. Are you counting that in the 0.2 and 0.3 or are you doing just a direct accounting translation into the product prices in the CPI? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': ""We are doing the full accounting. On PCE price inflation, flat oil prices and, let's say, 1 percent slower non-oil import price inflation would take about 0.2 off the forecast we are showing in 1999 and 0.4 off in 2000, including all of the feedback effects. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""If you had substituted the market's estimate for the staff's estimate, would that have made much of a difference in the CPI forecast?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': ""It would have taken a couple of tenths off the forecast.Our price is just a dollar or so higher than the market's, so the effect would be a tenth or two.If one wanted to assume that oil prices stay flat going forward, that would take another couple of tenths off, roughly speaking.The assumptions we have made on both the import price side and on the oil price are critical factors in explaining the upturn we have forecast in inflation.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'There is a wage/price interaction, which means that the change in the crude oil price gives us a multiplier in the inflation rate.Are you counting that in the 0.2 and 0.3 or are you doing just a direct accounting translation into the product prices in the CPI?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': ""We are doing the full accounting.On PCE price inflation, flat oil prices and, let's say, 1 percent slower non-oil import price inflation would take about 0.2 off the forecast we are showing in 1999 and 0.4 off in 2000, including all of the feedback effects.""}]",yes,no,,,
722,726,19990203_194_6,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""Now, what this suggests to me is that money is hiding itself very well.""","I must say that I have not changed my view that inflation is fundamentally a monetary phenomenon. But I am becoming far more skeptical that we can define a proxy that actually captures what money is, either in terms of transaction balances or those elements in the economic decisionmaking process which represent money. We are struggling here. I think we have to be careful not to assume by definition that M1, M2, or M3 or anything is money. They are all proxies for the underlying conceptual variable that we all employ in our generic evaluation of the impact of money on the economy. Now, what this suggests to me is that money is hiding itself very well. Don, do you think we ought to discuss the Humphrey-Hawkins issue before we go into this or after?","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'If you look back at our forecasting in 1990 and 1991, that development caught us somewhat by surprise. But toward the end of 1991 and in 1992 we were doing a better job of forecasting. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'You were putting in add factors. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""Yes, because we knew that the world had changed, so the old equations weren't working. Exactly. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'What happened subsequent to 1990 was far more of a surprise than a reversal would be today, if I may put it that way.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'I think that by 1991 we were beginning to get some sense of what was going on--specifically, that banks were getting into the mutual fund business.Mutual funds in particular were much more freely available to households, and households were diversifying their portfolios out of deposits.That was encouraged at the time by a steeply upward sloping yield curve which, to be sure, is reversing.So there were a lot of purchases-'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""We knew about that but we didn't forecast a change in the gap between opportunity costs and M2 velocity as a consequence, as I recall.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'If you look back at our forecasting in 1990 and 1991, that development caught us somewhat by surprise.But toward the end of 1991 and in 1992 we were doing a better job of forecasting.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'You were putting in add factors.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""Yes, because we knew that the world had changed, so the old equations weren't working.Exactly.""}]",yes,yes,utterance,,
723,727,19990203_276_1,MR. KOHN.,"""As for the level of the natural rate, it is higher than it has been in some of the past forecasts, although as I noted it drifts down over time as the wealth-to-income ratio drifts down.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'Production can be higher by a couple of percentage points than at the higher NAIRU, and a lower interest rate is needed to stimulate the demand to use the extra production that is now available at the lower NAIRU. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Don, I might suggest that another way to think of this is as follows: If the NAIRU is really more like 41/2 percent, we might be around the NAIRU now and looking at the prospect of a steady inflation path, which is the sign that we are essentially around the natural rate of interest. That's different from what is in our forecast, which suggests that we are headed toward an acceleration of prices at the prevailing level of interest rates. I think that's a very simple way to look at that. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'I see. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'The reason is that the economy can produce at a substantially higher level with a NAIRU that is one percentage point lower than assumed in the baseline.As a consequence, interest rates need to be lower to stimulate the demand to use that additional production.That is a level adjustment of production out into the infinite future.Production can be higher by a couple of percentage points than at the higher NAIRU, and a lower interest rate is needed to stimulate the demand to use the extra production that is now available at the lower NAIRU.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Don, I might suggest that another way to think of this is as follows: If the NAIRU is really more like 41/2 percent, we might be around the NAIRU now and looking at the prospect of a steady inflation path, which is the sign that we are essentially around the natural rate of interest.That's different from what is in our forecast, which suggests that we are headed toward an acceleration of prices at the prevailing level of interest rates.I think that's a very simple way to look at that.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'I see.'}]",no,,,,
724,728,19990330_85_4,MR. POOLE.,"""As I translate that into price indexes, it gives me a CPI somewhere in the area of 1 or 11/2 percent, given the ambiguity of the reading that we are getting out of the chained price index.""",,"[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I not only support but applaud your recommendation. I think an announcement of a tightening in policy at the present time would make us seem oblivious of what is going on in the world. But perhaps even more seriously, with a complete absence of inflation, it would put the Committee on record as being opposed to economic growth. Inevitably that is how a tightening move would be perceived, and I don't think that would be an appropriate message for us to send. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Poole. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The antiseptic wars that we have been experiencing--the Gulf War and the more recent air attacks on Iraq and Serbia--have given us, I think, a mistaken view of what war is.We are moving very quickly toward using American ground troops in Kosovo.The situation is getting scarier and scarier.As Mike Kelley points out, if there were any urgency about moving toward a firming at this stage, I would say we would have no choice.We would just do what we have to do.But considering that we do have some time and flexibility, I would recommend that we stay where we are at this point both with respect to moving interest rates and with respect to remaining neutral on symmetry.Vice Chair.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I not only support but applaud your recommendation.I think an announcement of a tightening in policy at the present time would make us seem oblivious of what is going on in the world.But perhaps even more seriously, with a complete absence of inflation, it would put the Committee on record as being opposed to economic growth.Inevitably that is how a tightening move would be perceived, and I don't think that would be an appropriate message for us to send.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Poole.'}]",no,,,,
725,729,19990518_97_1,MR. PRELL.,"""It is obviously very difficult and it is a judgment call.""","It is obviously very difficult and it is a judgment call. But I think the kind of situation you are describing, though complicated, is one reason to anticipate that at least some companies will hire additional workers. You say companies are working beyond sustainable levels of labor utilization, but you also say they are absolutely determined not to add workers. In other cases, I think people are working very hard, and firms would like to add workers but are finding it difficult to do so in a very tight labor market. For the latter group, we would anticipate that, even if business begins to flatten out, some of these firms will follow through on their hiring plans to reach a more comfortable position.","[{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""And I have heard stories from employees at breakfast about staff running pell-mell to the elevators with cartloads full of checks to try to make the courier times because processing has been so much heavier than usual. I don't think this has anything to do with the economy; it has to do with banking reorganization in our District. Our own productivity undoubtedly looks really great right now, but we would not be able to continue to move this volume of checks out the door for very long. Reconcilement issues and other kinds of issues would come back to bite us if we did that for very long. I am just wondering how you tell the difference. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""I know from our own business advisory councils that in many different industries people are beginning to say they are in a sense hanging on by their fingernails.They don't want to add people; they don't want to add to costs; they are driving their own production facilities as fast and as hard as they can.In our own Bank the volumes in our check-clearing operations recently are double our normal volumes for a variety of reasons.And I have heard stories from employees at breakfast about staff running pell-mell to the elevators with cartloads full of checks to try to make the courier times because processing has been so much heavier than usual.I don't think this has anything to do with the economy; it has to do with banking reorganization in our District.Our own productivity undoubtedly looks really great right now, but we would not be able to continue to move this volume of checks out the door for very long.Reconcilement issues and other kinds of issues would come back to bite us if we did that for very long.I am just wondering how you tell the difference.""}]",yes,no,,,
726,730,20000202_286_2,MR. KOHN.,"""That's an income side thing and the simulations, I believe, are basically done on the product side.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'So I think we are moving as quickly as the data will allow toward our best assessment of what those supply side effects are. But you are right; that assessment is embodied in these simulations. I tried to emphasize that the results, particularly the extent of the firming, are crucially dependent on those assessments and that there is a lot of uncertainty about them. The Committee may want to think carefully about how much weight it puts on them. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'In the simulations, what are you doing to the statistical discrepancy? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'But I think the staff has been catching up with this very quickly; we might even be ahead on productivity but certainly we have been catching up very quickly on the growth of productivity.We have modified our wage/price assessments, which in effect is what several people were remarking on yesterday about the sacrifice ratio.That is now higher because we see the economy in effect as a little less inflation prone in the sense that, even taking account of supply side effects, the rate of inflation seems to be less sensitive to output gaps than it might have been before.So I think we are moving as quickly as the data will allow toward our best assessment of what those supply side effects are.But you are right; that assessment is embodied in these simulations.I tried to emphasize that the results, particularly the extent of the firming, are crucially dependent on those assessments and that there is a lot of uncertainty about them.The Committee may want to think carefully about how much weight it puts on them.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'In the simulations, what are you doing to the statistical discrepancy?'}]",no,,,,
727,731,20000321_152_14,MR. STERN.,"""In my view, what might be the decisive factor here is financial conditions and how accommodative or restrictive they turn out to be.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The Ninth District's economy remains healthy. Construction activity is strong as is consumer spending. We have a couple of auto dealers on our two boards of directors and we asked them whether energy prices were affecting auto sales. Their answer was not so far as they could tell; auto sales continue to be robust. Labor markets, of course, remain very tight. And there is a bit of an unusual inventory problem developing; by that I mean that the problem is getting the inventory from the back room or the basement to the shelves. In some retail stores, the shelves are only partially stocked, and retailers tell us they just can't hire the staff to keep up with shelf stocking. A couple of our directors have reported that they see signs that inflation is stirring. These are people who sit on a variety of corporate boards, and they are bringing to us reports that input prices are going up and also that to some extent those companies are starting to implement price increases on their own that so far are sticking. As far as the national economy is concerned, I really don't think there is very much new. I continue to believe that the expansion of aggregate demand is secure and that, therefore, the outlook for real growth is positive. I continue to be relatively optimistic about future productivity gains, but I don't have a conviction about whether that will lead to domestic aggregate supply keeping pace with aggregate demand or not. In my view, what might be the decisive factor here is financial conditions and how accommodative or restrictive they turn out to be. We did ask several of our directors to check with their sources to see whether the higher interest rates that have appeared in the marketplace over the past year or so have had any effect on spending or on future investment plans or other such decisions. And in general the answers we got back were ""no, not to this point.""","[{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'And the outlook for the core CPI includes a comparable degree of acceleration. Going forward, it is clear to me that without significant action by this Committee, growth in aggregate demand will continue to outstrip growth in aggregate supply and inflation will deteriorate. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Thank you. Let's take a break for coffee at this stage, but let's keep it relatively short. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': ""However, another national temporary services firm reported that it has been seeing an acceleration in wages since the beginning of this year, with increases of 6 to 7 percent on a national basis compared to 4 to 5 percent last year.Turning to the national economy, since our January meeting we have increased our real GDP forecast for 2000 by 1/2 percentage point and our overall forecast is now very similar to the Greenbook forecast.Every sector of the economy appears to be stronger today than at the time of our previous meeting.The current growth in household spending is breathtaking and seems unlikely to abate any time soon.This is no doubt due in part to the tremendous run-up in equity prices that we've seen.On the inflation front, we continue to envision an acceleration in core PCE inflation of 0.4 percentage point in both 2000 and 2001.And the outlook for the core CPI includes a comparable degree of acceleration.Going forward, it is clear to me that without significant action by this Committee, growth in aggregate demand will continue to outstrip growth in aggregate supply and inflation will deteriorate.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Thank you.Let's take a break for coffee at this stage, but let's keep it relatively short.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,,
728,732,20000628_95_3,MR. STOCKTON.,"""We do see upside and downside risks to that estimate.""","Our current point estimate is about 5-1/4 percent. As I indicated earlier, that is down from the 5 3/4 percent to 6 percent range we had before. We do see upside and downside risks to that estimate. In the paper by Flint Brayton and David Reifschneider circulated to the Committee through Don Kohn a few weeks ago, I think they reported a reestimate of their wage and price equations. Their work suggests a NAIRU of 5-3/4 percent even with the current set of data they've been looking at. They provided in the paper a variety of reasons for why we might have experienced this particular combination of low unemployment and low inflation. Now, we have other judgmental models that produce lower NAIRUs. And we feel relatively comfortable with a number of the stories that, as I indicated earlier, probably have helped to lower the natural rate. But the risks are not one-sided either.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'It is really impressive at this late stage in the business cycle--more than we may have even remotely imagined. President Broaddus. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': ""Dave, in light of this discussion, it might be helpful if you could just refresh our memories about your estimate of the NAIRU as it is now and the kind of confidence interval you have around it. I presume there's an upside as well as a downside risk to it, despite the recent experience. It might be helpful to have that benchmark. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""It engenders a very large increase in capital investment and capital deepening which, other things equal, moves unit costs down.But at the same time it attracts foreign investment to finance the current account.In the simulations I suspect we would find that if suddenly we took that implicit ex ante rate of return down a few notches, it would create some truly awesome imbalances.In a sense it's that propensity to invest here that I think is a really crucial issue.And it's not only foreigners investing here.Just look at the backlogs of capital investment.It is really impressive at this late stage in the business cycle--more than we may have even remotely imagined.President Broaddus.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': ""Dave, in light of this discussion, it might be helpful if you could just refresh our memories about your estimate of the NAIRU as it is now and the kind of confidence interval you have around it.I presume there's an upside as well as a downside risk to it, despite the recent experience.It might be helpful to have that benchmark.""}]",yes,,,,
729,733,20020130_294_3,MR. MATTINGLY.,"""Whether that was right or wrong, that's what we argued, and the Court agreed to it.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""And how timely this is done doesn't enter into the equation? We can't say that we will release the information but only at a point in time when it would tend not to be detrimental to our immediate operations? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MATTINGLY.', 'text': ""Well, I don't see how we could. We would have to show that to release it before the minutes are released is going to cause the government financial harm. ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Financial harm is the issue? '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Supposing we argue that it is detrimental to our policymaking processes to do this and we take this issue to court--is there any conceivable scenario that you can think of in which we would prevail?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MATTINGLY.', 'text': 'No.We had the ability to prevail until the Committee changed its practice with regard to the release of its policy decision.Once you release the decision you must release the vote.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'My understanding is that once we decided in 1994 to announce any change in the target federal funds rate shortly after our meetings, it brought this entire FOIA mechanism into play.So, in response to a question we have to release the vote tally and how each individual voted.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MATTINGLY.', 'text': 'Correct.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""And how timely this is done doesn't enter into the equation?We can't say that we will release the information but only at a point in time when it would tend not to be detrimental to our immediate operations?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MATTINGLY.', 'text': ""Well, I don't see how we could.We would have to show that to release it before the minutes are released is going to cause the government financial harm.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Financial harm is the issue?'}]",no,,,,
730,734,20020130_327_2,MR. PARRY.,"""But I am uncomfortable about releasing the vote tally, including the name of a dissenter, by itself.""","Well, I wish we had never started down this road as well. But I am uncomfortable about releasing the vote tally, including the name of a dissenter, by itself. The important information is really not found in the numerical tally but in the direction and the rationale for any dissents. Simply reporting the existence of a dissent after an FOMC meeting without revealing its motivation could add noise to markets unless it is clarified. Even if dissenters are identified, it seems untenable that further questions about the direction and rationale of their dissenting vote could be left unanswered until the release of the minutes, especially given the typical six-week lag in their release. In the interim, the pressure for disclosure would be intense, and the possibility of erroneous speculation would be counterproductive. I also would like to know a bit more about the practices of other central banks. For example, the Bank of England doesn't release the vote tally along with the press release announcing its decision. That is made public only with the release of the minutes, which of course occurs two weeks later.","[{'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': ""The news articles were as long and as abundant as they are now. So it has played both ways. There was certainly a desire to find out what was going on, and in a sense that was the only signal that the Federal Reserve gave. So the situation was different but not totally different from today. President Parry, you're the next one on my list. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'Roger, when was the last time that we had dissents on a discount rate action?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'The last time I saw was 1991.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'So that was before our current practice of releasing a statement--which does get a lot of attention--that began in 1994.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'Things certainly have changed.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'And all the wire services pick up our decision quite promptly.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': ""That's absolutely true.But the other side of the coin is that in that earlier period the discount rate was the only signal about decisions on interest rate movements that was made public.Everything else had to be gathered from trying to interpret the operations of the Desk.So there was certainly some focus on discount rate actions.The news articles were as long and as abundant as they are now.So it has played both ways.There was certainly a desire to find out what was going on, and in a sense that was the only signal that the Federal Reserve gave.So the situation was different but not totally different from today.President Parry, you're the next one on my list.""}]",yes,no,,,
731,735,20021106_200_8,MR. SANTOMERO.,"""So, my preference would be for the staff to continue with the Ginnie Maes, which are a logical extension of our current practices, and to do a little more homework on the ACF.""","I'm close to where President Hoenig is. The Ginnie Maes make sense to me, and I think we should continue to pursue how that might happen. And I believe it would be useful to look at the ACF alternative in direct comparison with Ginnie Maes to see why we would need the ACF if we had Ginnie Maes. On the question of whether or not we need a CACF as a contingency arrangement I think we should turn to Governor Ferguson and say, ""Do we have enough contingency arrangements?"" If his crisis management group wants to take the CACF off the table because it's no longer perceived as necessary, that's fine. We should remember that, with the Treasury's auctioning of TT&L balances, we actually have had a lot more experience over the last fifteen months than we had before about how such a system would work. In many respects the ACF could be viewed as that kind of structure. So, my preference would be for the staff to continue with the Ginnie Maes, which are a logical extension of our current practices, and to do a little more homework on the ACF. I'd have the staff come back to the Committee and say, ""Here are the costs and benefits of each of these, how do you wish to proceed?"" And in that sense my view comes closer to President Parry's in terms of looking at both of them for a while and then figuring out where we want to end up.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': ""But it would be precisely in that kind of environment where significant danger would arise if we were reluctant to downgrade problem banks. With particular reference to the proposal about a contingency ACF for emergency situations, at this point I don't see any great advantage in that if I understand it correctly. We have this new Lombard facility coming in with a provision that would allow the Reserve Banks to drop the discount rate to the funds rate in an emergency situation. So I guess I don't see what this facility would add to what we would have in place once the new Lombard facility is introduced. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Santomero. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': ""Frankly, with the reemergence of federal deficits, I don't think anyone expects a lack of Treasury debt to be a problem any time in the foreseeable future.And if the facility were available, I think it would be tempting to use it for other purposes.In particular, we might be tempted to use it if the economy weakened sharply and we were either at or near the zero bound and needed to add a substantial quantity of reserves in such a situation.But it would be precisely in that kind of environment where significant danger would arise if we were reluctant to downgrade problem banks.With particular reference to the proposal about a contingency ACF for emergency situations, at this point I don't see any great advantage in that if I understand it correctly.We have this new Lombard facility coming in with a provision that would allow the Reserve Banks to drop the discount rate to the funds rate in an emergency situation.So I guess I don't see what this facility would add to what we would have in place once the new Lombard facility is introduced.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Santomero.'}]",yes,no,,,
732,736,20021210_60_3,MR. PARRY.,"""I was struck by how large that probability is.""","David, my question is related somewhat to the interchange you had with Michael Moskow about deflation. I had a chance to look at the Board staff's domestic nonfinancial briefing and the exercise of estimating the probability of attaining deflation, as you define it, over a four-quarter period. I was struck by how large that probability is. I wondered what level of concern you had about that probability; 28 percent is not a small number. We had done a similar exercise for a previous meeting, but we didn't have quite the same definition. I actually like your definition better because I think it is more realistic in terms of assuming a 1/2 percentage point error in the core PCE measure of inflation. How did the probability numbers strike you when you got those results?","[{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': ""They showed more of that pickup in trend productivity than ultimately turned out to be the case. So I think we need to be careful about getting head-faked by the last year's data, given the rather extraordinary circumstances of the period. But in terms of being able to model underlying technical progress or organizational efficiencies--the kinds of things that actually go into productivity--we just don't have a very good handle on how to measure them. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'Thank you. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': ""I see the risks more to the upside than to the downside in this particular aspect of our forecast, given the issues that President Poole was raising.Our statistical filters in a sense want to down weight some of the more recent observations; those data haven't been through an annual revision yet.So there are some reasons for being relatively conservative, as we have been in our forecast.But the recent performance of productivity has been absolutely spectacular.We are nervous about putting in a lot more productivity growth than we've shown, in part because those same statistical filters, as I indicated earlier, over-interpreted the pickup that we got in the early 1990s immediately coming out of that recession.They showed more of that pickup in trend productivity than ultimately turned out to be the case.So I think we need to be careful about getting head-faked by the last year's data, given the rather extraordinary circumstances of the period.But in terms of being able to model underlying technical progress or organizational efficiencies--the kinds of things that actually go into productivity--we just don't have a very good handle on how to measure them.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'Thank you.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry.'}]",yes,,,,
733,737,20030129_15_1,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""I appreciate the revision.""","I appreciate the revision. Approved without objection. I would assume and hope that there is no objection to the incumbent Manager of the System Open Market Account, Dino Kos, continuing in that position. Without objection. Thank you very much. Mr. Kos, would you quickly review your memorandum on the Authorization for Domestic Open Market Operations, the Authorization for Foreign Currency Operations, the Foreign Currency Directive, and the Procedural Instructions with Respect to Foreign Currency Operations?","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': '[Laughter] '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'Conflict of interest! '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': ""Maybe for the record somebody else should second the motion. SEVERAL. I'll second. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'Aye.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': ""Sounds as if it's unanimous.Congratulations yet again to you both.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The next item on the agenda, if I can find it, should be the vote for our staff officers.Do you have the list to read?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'Yes, Mr. Chairman.Secretary and Economist Vincent Reinhart Deputy Secretary Normand Bernard Assistant Secretaries Michelle Smith Gary Gillum General Counsel Virgil Mattingly Deputy General Counsel Thomas Baxter Economists Karen Johnson David Stockton Associate Economists From the Board Thomas Connors David Howard David Lindsey Charles Struckmeyer David Wilcox From the Reserve Banks Proposed by President McDonough Christine Cumming Proposed by President Guynn Robert Eisenbeis Proposed by President Broaddus Marvin Goodfriend Proposed by President Moskow William Hunter Proposed by President Parry John Judd'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Without objection, so be it.Would somebody like to move the selection of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to execute transactions for the System Open Market Account?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': ""I'll move the selection of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'Second.[Laughter]'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'Conflict of interest!'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': ""Maybe for the record somebody else should second the motion.SEVERAL.I'll second.""}]",yes,no,,,
734,738,20030129_92_17,MR. TETLOW.,"""There again, it doesn't mean that Glenn is wrong, but it does mean that there is friction between these two views, and it can't be settled at this table.""","Well, perhaps. I'd point to the part of exhibits 2 and 3 where we use the FRB/US model. Now, that is a large model with lots of persistence in it; a large number of lagged states and lagged errors are at work there. Let's say you ask what the optimal parameterization of this simple policy rule would be. You ask it to pick up the very thing that I believe Glenn is describing. What it tells you is that, unless there is a high degree forward-looking expectations, the optimal policy doesn't want that lag. It doesn't want that lag to proxy for the same kind of things that Glenn argues empirically it is proxying for. Does that mean Glenn is wrong? Not necessarily. It could mean that the model is wrong. But it isn't clear that what Glenn is referring to is not being adequately captured in what we're describing in exhibits 2 and 3. The same thing is true, I might add, about the term structure evidence. For this term structure evidence to explain what Glenn wants it to explain, he has to assume rational expectations. That's a presumption in his analysis. But as you saw in exhibit 3, if there are rational expectations, the optimal strategy calls for a lot of persistence in the fed funds rate. So one can interpret Glenn's evidence as suggesting that rational expectations are not there, in which case they shouldn't have produced inertia in the first place. There again, it doesn't mean that Glenn is wrong, but it does mean that there is friction between these two views, and it can't be settled at this table.","[{'speaker': 'MR. SACK.', 'text': ""So it reduces the degree of inertia in these rules, but there's still a significant amount of gradualism. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': 'You can reduce the degree of inertia by attributing some of that explanatory power to some other error out there that happens to have serial correlation, right? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. SACK.', 'text': 'Right. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': ""So part of the problem is that what appears to be inertia actually is not. We've just responded consistently to something that's the same for a period of time. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. SACK.', 'text': ""In a recent research paper that I wrote with two colleagues, we show that it is possible to estimate policy rules directly allowing for both factors.So we don't necessarily have to turn to the term structure evidence to separate them.What our paper and several other papers have found is that clearly Glenn's point is right: There are variables omitted from the rule that have serial correlation, which gives some impression of gradualism.But that's not the whole story.In fact, when we apply these methods to our policy rule and allow for serially correlated errors, that decreases the coefficient on the lagged federal funds rate from 0.76 to 0.56.So it reduces the degree of inertia in these rules, but there's still a significant amount of gradualism.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': 'You can reduce the degree of inertia by attributing some of that explanatory power to some other error out there that happens to have serial correlation, right?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SACK.', 'text': 'Right.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': ""So part of the problem is that what appears to be inertia actually is not.We've just responded consistently to something that's the same for a period of time.""}]",yes,,,,
735,739,20030129_270_2,MR. FERGUSON.,"""I'm rather surprised, Sandy, that in response to Governor Bernanke's important question you didn't talk a little about developments in the world of semiconductors.""","Could I make a two-handed intervention here? I'm rather surprised, Sandy, that in response to Governor Bernanke's important question you didn't talk a little about developments in the world of semiconductors. If one listens to folks in that industry, they cite a number of, I think, reasonably credible but yet-to-be-proven stories about their ability to build larger and larger semiconductors and to etch more capabilities into these semiconductors. They go on to talk about nanotechnology and other things. These stories are not dramatically different from the kinds of stories they were starting to tell in 1995 and 1996 that proved to be true. So while I think the question is a quite legitimate one and, as you say, very important, there are some indications out there about the basic building blocks of this IT boom that suggest that there still is some room--","[{'speaker': 'MR. STRUCKMEYER.', 'text': ""So our attempt here has been to be cautious in saying how much is permanent. The 1.5 percent multifactor productivity growth is still quite strong. It's just not as strong as what we saw last year. In part we think there were a lot of adjustments going on--some related to the aftermath of September 11 that were unique to 2002 and others that are more likely to be one-time or occasional events than to be repeated consistently over our forecast period. That's the thought process that we've gone through. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STRUCKMEYER.', 'text': ""So as we've watched these developments and judgmentally done the parsing here, the reason we've gravitated more toward the transitory as opposed to a major ratcheting up in the longer-term growth rate was the fact that those trends don't look quite as favorable as before.In addition, if we throw in the embodiment hypothesis, clearly the lack of an investment boom comparable to what we had in the late 1990s should be taking something off structural productivity growth.That doesn't necessarily reduce the level, but it doesn't produce the added impetus that it was providing.So our attempt here has been to be cautious in saying how much is permanent.The 1.5 percent multifactor productivity growth is still quite strong.It's just not as strong as what we saw last year.In part we think there were a lot of adjustments going on--some related to the aftermath of September 11 that were unique to 2002 and others that are more likely to be one-time or occasional events than to be repeated consistently over our forecast period.That's the thought process that we've gone through.""}]",yes,no,,,
736,740,20030318_134_5,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""We have no choice but to fix the overnight rate because we've tried everything else and nothing else has worked.""","May I interject a comment here? Ned and I had a discussion about this yesterday. We have to be very careful, if we're looking at new techniques, not to get ourselves involved in any pegging of intermediate- or longer-term rates. I say that not because we couldn't make it happen but because the problem of unwinding that sort of peg will result in utter chaos. We have no choice but to fix the overnight rate because we've tried everything else and nothing else has worked. Pegging the overnight rate is a fallback position and one that I'm sure we would endeavor to work our way out of if we could. If we decide that we want to move to the intermediate rates to try to support rates, the last thing we want to do is to mention what our goal is because we will never be able to unwind from that if we get locked in to a specific pattern. I agree with Governor Gramlich that it's certainly not too soon to give some thought to these issues. But we have to be careful in determining not only how we phase our way into a particular policy but how we phase our way out. In many respects, the latter is far more difficult than the former.","[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': ""My third point is that the funds rate is low; and if it goes down any more, it will get lower still. [Laughter] I'm just trying to lay this out in small steps! [Laughter] If it gets down much lower, we're soon going to have to confront the alternative or untraditional measures that we've been telling ourselves we have in our quiver that we can use in such circumstances. It's not too soon to start thinking about what we're going to do and also what we will look at to know how well we are doing. I believe we have to think about both and fairly soon. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': ""Second, as Dave pointed out, there is a strong possibility that in fact we're not going to know that much very soon for various reasons that have come up around the table, and I think we want to guard against making uncertainty disabling.That is, in my view we ought to have a call in a few weeks, and we ought to be thinking about acting even in the presence of continued Knightian uncertainty.The situation may not be convertible to nice probability distributions, but we may still have to act.I believe that we ought to prepare ourselves for that possibility mentally.My third point is that the funds rate is low; and if it goes down any more, it will get lower still.[Laughter] I'm just trying to lay this out in small steps![Laughter] If it gets down much lower, we're soon going to have to confront the alternative or untraditional measures that we've been telling ourselves we have in our quiver that we can use in such circumstances.It's not too soon to start thinking about what we're going to do and also what we will look at to know how well we are doing.I believe we have to think about both and fairly soon.""}]",yes,yes,sentence,neutral,
737,741,20030625_16_3,MR. KOS.,"""We are fortunate that at least right now we don't have those kinds of problems in the United States, so Vincent and I did not have to delve into that issue in our presentation.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'But I think the Japanese limited the effectiveness of their actions by this overtone they used to characterize the steps they were taking as they announced them. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'So it was a weakness in the commitment part of it? '}, {'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""Right, and a failure to perceive the expectations part of it. I think they were counting on their statements to help a lot because of what otherwise isn't available to policymakers at zero interest rates. I don't think they really embraced the concept of expectations enough at the time, even intellectually, in terms of the importance of getting expectations to work with the policymakers instead of working against them. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""That certainly characterized their first steps in the direction of zero interest rates, and I think they've probably learned from that mistake.One doesn't hear Japanese officials use that kind of language any longer.But in the earlier stages there was always a tone that they grudgingly were going to do a little more if they had to and were going to take it back just as soon as they could.Admittedly, some of the things that made them uncomfortable are the very problems that have been identified here.And those are real problems.But I think the Japanese limited the effectiveness of their actions by this overtone they used to characterize the steps they were taking as they announced them.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'So it was a weakness in the commitment part of it?'}, {'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""Right, and a failure to perceive the expectations part of it.I think they were counting on their statements to help a lot because of what otherwise isn't available to policymakers at zero interest rates.I don't think they really embraced the concept of expectations enough at the time, even intellectually, in terms of the importance of getting expectations to work with the policymakers instead of working against them.""}]",no,,,,
738,742,20031209_94_3,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""If it is indeed is telling us something, it's obviously very important for policy.""","Yes, but President Moskow is raising a question based on looking at that chart. I think he called it scary, and it is scary if you believe what it implies. If it is indeed is telling us something, it's obviously very important for policy. If it is not, it's important that we know that.","[{'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': ""It is the case that the very far ahead forward rates were up a bit up over the intermeeting period. But the ten-year was actually down. So it isn't as if there are some obvious sets of signals there. Nor is it the case if you look at volatilities that we could get from swaptions. The implied volatilities on ten-year instruments are higher, but all interest rate volatilities are a little higher. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Is it correlating with what is conceptually identical to inflation expectations for a forward period?Do the two give the same answer?My recollection is that they do not.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': ""They don't in part because the inflation risk premium and the potential for differential term premiums between the indexed and the nominal securities drive--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Which is not an inflation premium issue.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': ""Right.So one can't read it as an inflation premium.We've found historically that the slope of the term structure does not do a particularly good job in forecasting either activity or inflation.There's a little information on the further-ahead forward rates but not a lot.It is the case that the very far ahead forward rates were up a bit up over the intermeeting period.But the ten-year was actually down.So it isn't as if there are some obvious sets of signals there.Nor is it the case if you look at volatilities that we could get from swaptions.The implied volatilities on ten-year instruments are higher, but all interest rate volatilities are a little higher.""}]",yes,,,,
739,743,20040128_223_6,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""But the major problem is that they are not anything in particular because we haven't a clue what the underlying assumptions are.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': ""There have been times when the Chairman doesn't refer to them. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': ""There have been times when they are not even included in the testimony. In the last ten years the Chairman has almost never referred to them in the reading draft of the testimony, but there have been times when they haven't even been in the text of the formal testimony submitted. They are always in the report. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': 'So do you get asked about them, then? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': ""We'll see if there's an obvious yes or no, up or down, and then discuss all this when we get closer to the next forecast round, but we have a couple of meetings before then.Governor Gramlich.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': ""Let me just mention one issue that we might also put on your list.I think all of us would care very much about the Chairman's psychological well being.What is the legal requirement in terms of whether these forecasts have to go in the testimony or just in the report itself?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'In the past it has been in the report and not in the testimony.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': 'I think we have already crossed that bridge.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': ""Yes, just in the report.There have been times when the Chairman doesn't refer to them.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': ""There have been times when they are not even included in the testimony.In the last ten years the Chairman has almost never referred to them in the reading draft of the testimony, but there have been times when they haven't even been in the text of the formal testimony submitted.They are always in the report.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': 'So do you get asked about them, then?'}]",no,,,,
740,744,20040128_403_2,MR. STERN.,"""I support your recommendation on the rate and on the change in language.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support your recommendation on the rate and on the change in language. I would reiterate one point I've tried to make before--apparently unpersuasively--that further disinflation or even a touch of deflation, if it's stemming from rapid productivity growth, is not necessarily a cause for concern.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'If the jobs report is very strong, as I think it will be, you would be in a position to give a very clear signal that the ""considerable period"" will not last for long. We have conditioned it already, and my preference would be to get rid of the concept completely and not have it phased out by a reference to ""patience."" If we have a sentence in our statement that says the Committee believes that it can be patient in removing its policy accommodation, we will still have the problem of removing that sentence sometime in the future. So my preference would be to have you do the explaining during your testimony and to get rid of the time reference completely in the March statement. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation for the rate.My preference on the sentence would be somewhat different from what you\'re recommending.I would prefer to have you explain ""considerable period"" in more detail in your testimony.It will be delivered after the jobs report comes out, so you will have the flexibility of giving a clearer signal.If the jobs report is very strong, as I think it will be, you would be in a position to give a very clear signal that the ""considerable period"" will not last for long.We have conditioned it already, and my preference would be to get rid of the concept completely and not have it phased out by a reference to ""patience.""If we have a sentence in our statement that says the Committee believes that it can be patient in removing its policy accommodation, we will still have the problem of removing that sentence sometime in the future.So my preference would be to have you do the explaining during your testimony and to get rid of the time reference completely in the March statement.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,ambiguous,
741,745,20050322_245_6,MS. YELLEN.,"""I like the line 6 way of doing that.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support your recommendation to raise the federal funds rate 25 basis points. I can also support alternative B, although I have significant discomfort with the balance-of-risk statement in line 5. I agree with President Lacker's comment that it has now been made essentially meaningless and can't stay there long. I would simply echo the opinion given by many people around this table that it is very important that we continue to communicate our views and what we know about future policy. I like the line 6 way of doing that. Obviously, we have to change the language as circumstances change and devise at some point an alternative to ""measured,"" but writing an English sentence or two to explain where we think policy is going is, I think, the best thing to do. And I think we need to do that even when we get to the point where the expectation is that policy will remain unchanged and we will be watching news to decide where we go from there. I've never been a fan of the balance-of-risk statement. I know there have been a number of committees that have tried to look at how to revise it. I suppose it's worth doing that again, but my sense is--I agree with President Lacker--that it is fatally flawed. But I believe that communication is very important and we should try to communicate in a less formulaic way.","[{'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': ""[Laughter] Let me just comment about alternative C. We're in this evolving economy and communicating with the public, and we expect certain reactions of them and they expect us to have policy evolve and react in a certain way. Alternative C is a zero probability event, and I'm not quite sure I see the value of communicating by describing a counterfactual future that is so far from reality. I think we can find other ways to convey a sense of what looks likely to us going forward. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Yellen. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': 'I don\'t think that we ought to pull information of a forward-looking nature out of the statement on net, but I made the suggestion I did about returning to the balance-of-risk assessment statement, because my sense is that what\'s labeled line 6 here is really bearing the weight of conveying our sense about the future.And I wouldn\'t want to reduce the statement if it meant less transparency and a less forthcoming communication with the public.I would point out that with this addition of the phrase ""appropriate monetary policy action"" we\'ve essentially put the nail in the coffin in the original version of the statement.It now decidedly conveys no information about policy except that we want it to be appropriate, which presumably everyone always knew.[Laughter] Let me just comment about alternative C.We\'re in this evolving economy and communicating with the public, and we expect certain reactions of them and they expect us to have policy evolve and react in a certain way.Alternative C is a zero probability event, and I\'m not quite sure I see the value of communicating by describing a counterfactual future that is so far from reality.I think we can find other ways to convey a sense of what looks likely to us going forward.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Yellen.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,entailment,utterance
742,746,20060510_1_3,CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.,"""We still plan to have two full rounds of discussion, the first round on the economy and the outlook, and I hope we can complete that before the coffee break.""",,[],[],no,,,,
743,747,20070131_262_8,MR. FISHER.,"""At some point we may need to tighten, but let's think of this as the migration from where we were in December.""","Mr. Chairman, I think we have to do this against the background of what we said the last time. If you go back to section 2 from December, we were cautious about growth. In section 2 under alternative B now, we're basically saying that we are seeing firmer economic growth. I don't want to overdo this, and I think Vice Chairman Geithner's point is absolutely correct here. Let's think of where we're coming from and indicate the reality of what we've talked about. We are concerned about inflation. Using the word ""predominant"" excessively emphasizes our concern. At some point we may need to tighten, but let's think of this as the migration from where we were in December. I think the migration is adequately captured in the language that we have in alternative B.","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': ""That's not the way you framed it, Mr. Chairman. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': ""I couldn't have framed it that way. [Laughter] ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': ""But I think we haven't changed our view of the outlook enough to justify that significant a change in the signal. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Intervention, President Fisher. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': ""Well, no, I'd just make the observation that we debated this before and we debated several times the question about whether the best introductory phrase to that balance of risk assessment was exactly that language.The problem in doing it now--this is just one man's view--is that I think it will be read as a significant alteration of our signal, and on the strength of what we've discussed about changes to the outlook in December, we can't justify a significant change in the signal.The second reason not to do it is the one that the Chairman raised.It introduces a slightly infelicitous framing when there is some risk that people will read everything we say through the prism of whether we're in the midst of altering implicitly the hierarchy of objectives that we have as a Committee in some broad sense.That's not the way you framed it, Mr. Chairman.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': ""I couldn't have framed it that way.[Laughter]""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': ""But I think we haven't changed our view of the outlook enough to justify that significant a change in the signal.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Intervention, President Fisher.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,sentence
744,748,20080318_149_2,MR. LOCKHART.,"""I came to the meeting preferring alternative B--50 basis points.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I came to the meeting preferring alternative B--50 basis points. I certainly can bring myself to support your proposal--75 basis points. I don't view it as a fist pounder, but let me make the case for 50 basis points, at least as I think about it. First, I do think it is a movement that acknowledges financial instability and the growing real weakness. As I argued in my earlier remarks, it may set the scene for decoupling rate policy from liquidity actions if conditions allow. I think the action makes a minimal acknowledgement of inflation risk, and it may signal the view that lower rates can do only so much and that, best case, the market will have to proceed to sort out the market problems and, worst case, the fiscal authorities will have to deal with them. Although I am not a trained psychologist, let me just propose that, in dealing with market psychology, there may be some value in appearing to firm up our rate-movement policy and to set one element in the fluid situation with greater fixity than it has been in recent weeks. That might generate the kind of firming dynamic and even help produce a turn in psychology. That's a lot to ask for simply 50 basis points, but I also prefer the language of alternative A to that of alternative B, and I think Brian said that you could conceivably apply alternative A language substantially to a 50 basis point cut. So in general I like that approach. Thank you, Mr. Chairman","[{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': ""You're saying that we're worried about the downside. We're all worried about that, but we're going to promote sustainable economic growth without sacrificing long-term price stability. Those are my suggestions, Mr. Chairman, and thank you for putting up with me. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Always a pleasure. [Laughter] President Lockhart. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'You may disagree with me on that, but I would suggest that we take out the justification reflecting, in paragraph 3, ""a projected leveling out of energy and other commodities.""To me that\'s a wing and a prayer, and you suggested that you might be willing to take it out.Were I you, advocating 75 basis points, acting as I think you are about to act, with one dissent, I would take that wing and a prayer language out of there.Then I would suggest one other thing--in fact, I would ask for one other thing.In the very last sentence--""The Committee will act in a timely matter as needed to promote sustainable economic growth without sacrificing long-term pricestability""--that\'s really what we\'re talking about on the upside and on the downside.So I would ask for that change because that\'s really what we\'re saying.You\'re saying that we\'re worried about the downside.We\'re all worried about that, but we\'re going to promote sustainable economic growth without sacrificing long-term price stability.Those are my suggestions, Mr. Chairman, and thank you for putting up with me.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Always a pleasure.[Laughter] President Lockhart.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,utterance
745,749,20080625_264_3,MR. PLOSSER.,"""The IMF went through an extraordinary study effort during the sovereign debt crisis and came up with some very important mechanisms for how to change the contracts that were being written by sovereign countries so as to avoid the IMF's having to step in and look for other solutions, which is, I think, along the same lines.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'One good model is the FDICIA model, for example, which lays out a whole set of criteria under which intervention can be taken and, if intervention is taken, has a set of rules. There are ways through the legal structure to solve some of these problems without our necessarily having to make time-inconsistent promises. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': 'I agree, and those are mechanisms for legislatively tying our hands, and that ought to be high on the agenda. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': ""We'll discuss those. Yes, President Plosser. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': ""Related to that, I was happy to learn from Art that an after-action review by the SEC was under way.Because our role is different from the SEC's, I'd like to suggest that maybe building on that or maybe in parallel to that we conduct our own after-action review of the factors that went into how that event played out.Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Thank you.I agree with you that we need to define limits, but I think we have stronger tools than just our declarations of piety.I would just note that there are models.One good model is the FDICIA model, for example, which lays out a whole set of criteria under which intervention can be taken and, if intervention is taken, has a set of rules.There are ways through the legal structure to solve some of these problems without our necessarily having to make time-inconsistent promises.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': 'I agree, and those are mechanisms for legislatively tying our hands, and that ought to be high on the agenda.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': ""We'll discuss those.Yes, President Plosser.""}]",yes,no,,,
746,750,19770118_31_2,CHAIRMAN BURNS.,"""The risk is the Bank of England declares itself bankrupt, and I think that risk is a minimal risk.""","Well, I think that's true, but let's be clear about the risk. The risk is the Bank of England declares itself bankrupt, and I think that risk is a minimal risk.","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""There is one aspect of this that I just feel I ought to comment on because as a matter of form it concerns me. In form, we have a take-out here after a year, but since the risk-sharing arrangement in the third indented paragraph here extends beyond a year, in substance we're left with the risks of the credit and, therefore, in substance to credit beyond a year. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'For half of this. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""For half of it, that's right. For half of it. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'What we are doing is protecting ourselves as a central bank to make sure that this remains a short-term operation.We have a clear take-out.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'In this regard, you may recall the provision that we had for a take-out under an agreement with the Treasury--back in 1968, was it?Well, there was an obligation assumed by the Treasury in that year.And that undertaking by the Treasury has been subject to interpretation and misinterpretation; there were elements of ambiguity.[This] is an unconditional arrangement.Mr. Volcker.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""There is one aspect of this that I just feel I ought to comment on because as a matter of form it concerns me.In form, we have a take-out here after a year, but since the risk-sharing arrangement in the third indented paragraph here extends beyond a year, in substance we're left with the risks of the credit and, therefore, in substance to credit beyond a year.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'For half of this.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""For half of it, that's right.For half of it.""}]",yes,no,,,
747,751,19770118_233_10,MR. GRAMLEY.,"""That is the sort of thing we need to keep in mind and keep watching for over the next few months.""","We have a projection of a fairly moderate increase in real state and local expenditures for 1977. I think most forecasters anticipate that the state and local sector will not be showing much strength. Well, I think Governor Lilly is talking about business fixed capital, and that is independent in the way we look at the statistics. But that is segregated in the national income. There is an offsetting consideration to be taken into account. I think Governor Lilly's point is one that needs to be kept in mind--that is the implication of the remarks that I made at the end of my prepared statement. But again, I would remind you, Governor Lilly, that that's the sort of thing that we anticipated last year, and it did not happen. I would remind you also that the [Department of] Commerce December survey of plant and equipment outlays for the year, which doesn't have a long history--we've had the record now for about six years--generally speaking does not tend to underestimate capital outlays. Now it could happen this year. That is the sort of thing we need to keep in mind and keep watching for over the next few months.","[{'speaker': 'MR. WINN.', 'text': ""I'm sympathetic to Governor Lilly's view in terms of the turnaround, but just one word of caution on that score. To what extent are future capital expenditures related, as they have been in the past, to local and state government activities? We've put the financial position of these firms in better shape so that they can move ahead. But to what extent is heavy equipment and construction and all of this related to the big role that local and state government has played--roads, sewers, hospitals, schools, and the rest of it? I don't see that coming back. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BAUGHMAN.', 'text': 'I assume that you have noted that the oil companies have apparently negotiated contracts with a 9 percent increase for the first year and apparently--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'For the second year also; this is a two-year package.As I understand, it is roughly 9 percent in each of the two years and no cost of living adjustment.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BAUGHMAN.', 'text': ""--and apparently this will be kind of a pattern for that industry.Whether it will extend into other industries, I wouldn't know.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'All right, thank you, Mr. Baughman.Mr. Winn, please.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WINN.', 'text': ""I'm sympathetic to Governor Lilly's view in terms of the turnaround, but just one word of caution on that score.To what extent are future capital expenditures related, as they have been in the past, to local and state government activities?We've put the financial position of these firms in better shape so that they can move ahead.But to what extent is heavy equipment and construction and all of this related to the big role that local and state government has played--roads, sewers, hospitals, schools, and the rest of it?I don't see that coming back.""}]",yes,no,,,
748,752,19770118_300_2,MR. GRAMLEY.,"""We've been thinking about that in terms of financial market projections.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Mr. Mayo, please. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': ""Just a question to Lyle. Several months ago we heard quite a bit of discussion on the corporate side that tax liabilities were being piled up in '76, payments were low in '76 based on '75 profits, and the place where this would begin to pinch was in the spring of 1977. I haven't heard a word about that for a month or so now, and I noted nothing in the discussion today, either written or oral, on the subject. Does that mean, Lyle, that this was blown out of all proportion and really isn't significant? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'You know, Mr. Partee commented on psychological reaction to one or another kind of deficit.I think that once the business community becomes aware of what is an emerging fact, namely, that the deficit this fiscal year will be substantially larger than during the preceding record-breaking year--once the business community becomes aware of the emerging fact that large fiscal deficits are ahead for several years, this may well have a profound effect on inflationary expectations.Mr. Mayo, please.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': ""Just a question to Lyle.Several months ago we heard quite a bit of discussion on the corporate side that tax liabilities were being piled up in '76, payments were low in '76 based on '75 profits, and the place where this would begin to pinch was in the spring of 1977.I haven't heard a word about that for a month or so now, and I noted nothing in the discussion today, either written or oral, on the subject.Does that mean, Lyle, that this was blown out of all proportion and really isn't significant?""}]",no,,,,
749,753,19770621_49_9,MR. PARTEE.,"""And if you look at the hourly earnings index, why it seems to me the performance is really pretty good.""","Jerry, I was surprised how pessimistic your comments were regarding prices. I was surprised because I'm not that pessimistic, obviously. But I wonder whether what you're picking up in the GNP forecast, and second quarter forecast in particular, isn't a reflection of past increases, principally in food prices. If you look at wholesale prices of industrial commodities, the rise is slowing. That's particularly true at the raw stage of industrial commodities, but it's also true of industrial commodities as a group. Indeed the [total] wholesale price index was up quite a lot less in May than before. And I know that the sensitive industrials in our weekly index have been declining in the last couple of months. That's just a few items, but perhaps indicative of reduced pressure in the market. And if you look at the hourly earnings index, why it seems to me the performance is really pretty good. Year over year [in May], the increase was 6.9 percent; [for the] month, the increase was a 5.7 [percent annual rate]. But this far into a recovery, it seems to me that that's a pretty good performance for wages, and it implies that unit labor costs are not, at least at this point, accelerating, looking through the bobbles you get up and down. I assume that the forecast you have given us is largely based on higher food prices. But even there, the impression I had is that the agricultural situation is better, rather than worse, than it was a couple of months ago in basic terms, because it's rained, and the wheat's coming in, and that kind of thing. It might have some temporary effect in holding back meat animals and things like that in the market and give you a little increase in prices. But sort of fundamentally, as I look at the picture, it's improved in the last two or three months with regard to the price outlook, rather than deteriorated. Are you going to comment on that?","[{'speaker': 'MR. EASTBURN.', 'text': ""That's gross rent, that's not net rent, which is a little bit-- ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""That's right. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. EASTBURN.', 'text': 'Net rent may well have gone down, based on those figures. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'All right, thank you, Mr. Balles. Mr. Partee now, please. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""I don't have the numbers back in the January-February period.It's clear that over the balance of the projection period, we have M1 velocity rising at around a 7 percent annual rate, which is really very high, as you know.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'I noticed that in the Bluebook.I thought it was awfully high.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""Let me just note that we do have some numbers on this residential rent index in the CPI, and in '75 and '76, that index had been rising at around a 5-1/4 percent annual rate.And in the first quarter of this year, it's 5.8 percent.The monthly pattern is, February, a 3.6 percent annual rate, 6 percent in March, 8.4 percent in April.So we seem to be on a somewhat rising pattern for that particular measure of rents.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. EASTBURN.', 'text': ""That's gross rent, that's not net rent, which is a little bit--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""That's right.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. EASTBURN.', 'text': 'Net rent may well have gone down, based on those figures.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'All right, thank you, Mr. Balles.Mr. Partee now, please.'}]",yes,no,,,
750,754,19770719_25_2,MR. HOLMES.,"""It seems to me that one of the reasons that investment demand has been so sluggish in Germany""","Mr. Chairman, if I may add one other point. It seems to me that one of the reasons that investment demand has been so sluggish in Germany [is that], if they see a continual appreciation of the mark against other currencies, they don't quite see where their markets are going to be in the future. I think a further appreciation of the mark could rebound to have an adverse effect on the growth of the German economy, [growth] that everybody, including the Germans and us, wants to see. Which is really the way they're going to cut back on their current economic surplus--by internal growth.","[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'We think that part of our present deficit is cyclical. It will continue to be so next year but perhaps get somewhat worse. But eventually, one would think that other countries would catch up with us. Meanwhile, the short-run effect of an exchange rate move is the familiar J curve. In other words, the Germans sell the same amount of goods at slightly higher prices and realize higher dollar receipts and a bigger surplus, for some months at least. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARDEE.', 'text': ""We're running the risk [that] other wide fluctuations will perhaps have to develop later on, which, as far as U.S. policy is concerned, would be embarrassing.So it's better to have something that is in line with fundamentals than exceeding it.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""The underlying economics are quite debatable, it seems to me.An exchange rate move does not change a current account very much until a year or two later.So that's really what we're saying--these exchange rate movements are necessary to alter the German, Japanese, etcetera, surplus one or two years down the road.Now, by that time, who knows what cyclical developments may have done.We think that part of our present deficit is cyclical.It will continue to be so next year but perhaps get somewhat worse.But eventually, one would think that other countries would catch up with us.Meanwhile, the short-run effect of an exchange rate move is the familiar J curve.In other words, the Germans sell the same amount of goods at slightly higher prices and realize higher dollar receipts and a bigger surplus, for some months at least.""}]",yes,no,,,
751,755,19770816_101_2,MR. EASTBURN.,"""A couple meetings ago I reported on the sentiment of businessmen in our area, which of course is not the most vigorous area in the country, and it's one of concern and remains one of concern.""",,"[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I share the general feeling that we're going to have some slowdown, but the momentum is pretty good. And some slowdown is not a matter of great concern at the moment. This underlying inflationary cost momentum does concern me. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Volcker. Mr. Eastburn now, please. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""And this kind of attitude and momentum, which I think we see in the cost figures and indirectly in the profits figures, it seems to me, continues to present the major challenge for monetary policy.Some day we're going to run into a collision.We keep reducing the growth rate targets [for the monetary aggregates], and if [money growth does come in within those] growth rate targets and there hasn't been any decline in the momentum of cost increase, some day we're going to have a problem, and I don't see yet how this works itself out.Add to that Governor Wallich's concerns, which I share to a degree.I don't know whether he expressed them as concerns; I think they are a concern in the inflationary context.We have a problem down the road.That's not being very helpful in terms of our immediate decision.I share the general feeling that we're going to have some slowdown, but the momentum is pretty good.And some slowdown is not a matter of great concern at the moment.This underlying inflationary cost momentum does concern me.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Volcker.Mr. Eastburn now, please.'}]",no,,,,
752,756,19770920_85_13,MR. MORRIS.,"""So we're marginally more pessimistic.""","Mr. Chairman, on this business of full employment, I tend to define where we are in terms of the unemployment rate for married men and for heads of households. And if you look at that, it suggests that we're about 1-1/2 percent from full employment, which means that full employment would be measured around Bob Mayo's 5-1/2 percent level because, with a decline of 1-1/2 percent, you'd have the unemployment rate for married men down to 2 percent and for heads of households down to 3 percent. And I think, historically, those levels have been associated with full employment. On the forecast on the outlook, we still tend to be a little more pessimistic than the staff, and I think our difference lies primarily in the consumption sector. That is, we think it's improbable that automobile sales in '78 will exceed the '77 levels, which the staff has projected. It is true that, if you look at the relationship of installment credit to income, we are still well below the peaks reached in '73. But I think the current level of installment credit relative to income is extremely high relative to any other period. If you exclude the '73 period, that relationship is already very high. And whether, starting out from that point, we can sustain a further increase in automobile sales seems questionable to me. And the other factor we're giving some weight to is the one you mentioned earlier--the wealth effect, on consumption, of the decline in the stock market. And I think that while it may be quite appropriate to weigh in other types of wealth, such as land and real estate, I think our observation is that the impact of the stock market is disproportionately [large] in its effect on consumption [relative] to real property and that sort of thing because, for the reason you mentioned, Jim, people look upon stocks as being a liquid instrument, and they typically don't look upon real property in that sense. So, for the year beginning in the fourth quarter of '77, whereas Board staff is projecting a 4.7 [percent] real growth rate, we think it would be more probable, given our outlook on consumption, to have a figure of 4 to 4-1/4. So we're marginally more pessimistic.","[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""This is not going to happen overnight, and so the fact that I argue for discussing it now doesn't mean that I think it would or should go into effect this year. But I do think that the data, the experience, so far show that the high unemployment doesn't bring inflation down. Our projections say that it doesn't have that effect, and I think that we could begin thinking about trying something else. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'All right. Mr. Morris next, please. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""I'm concerned about the very low reduction in unemployment that our projections show, even given the very modest increases in GNP over the years end-'77, end-'78--less than 1/2 percent.It looks as though Herb Stein was right--but I think, for people who are concerned about inflation to say that 7 percent unemployment is full employment is a little like people who are concerned about unemployment saying that 6 percent inflation is zero[inflation].I am troubled by the outlook, and that is why, in my own thinking, I've concluded that we ought to move to some kind of incomes policy.This is not going to happen overnight, and so the fact that I argue for discussing it now doesn't mean that I think it would or should go into effect this year.But I do think that the data, the experience, so far show that the high unemployment doesn't bring inflation down.Our projections say that it doesn't have that effect, and I think that we could begin thinking about trying something else.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'All right.Mr. Morris next, please.'}]",yes,no,,,
753,757,19771018_357_5,MR. PARDEE.,"""The Treasury's thinking at this stage is that it won't.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Where ""we"" means what? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARDEE.', 'text': 'Well, this is more the U.S. Treasury than the Federal Reserve. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Well, you can't erase the trade deficit, which is growing by leaps and bounds. That certainly would seem to indicate the direction for the dollar, other things equal. And for us to try to resist that in volume--I mean, at first it might seem that we know something that they don't, but later it might just seem that we're being foolish. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""I'm not sure, Henry, that's the only interpretation the market places upon our intervention.I think there's also the simpler interpretation--that we in the Federal Reserve think the market has gone too far, and we don't think there's a lot of risk involved in increasing our level of intervention.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARDEE.', 'text': ""It's just a matter of erasing the market's worst fears rather than turning upside down all the rest of our policy.The market needs reassurance in this.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'Because you think the market thinks we want it down positively.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARDEE.', 'text': ""Well, they're afraid that we want it.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Where ""we"" means what?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARDEE.', 'text': 'Well, this is more the U.S. Treasury than the Federal Reserve.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Well, you can't erase the trade deficit, which is growing by leaps and bounds.That certainly would seem to indicate the direction for the dollar, other things equal.And for us to try to resist that in volume--I mean, at first it might seem that we know something that they don't, but later it might just seem that we're being foolish.""}]",no,,,,
754,758,19771220_156_3,MR. MAYO.,"""And we will be feeling our way.""","We are starting from a half, and it's logical to consider that [as being] home base as we feel our way here. And we will be feeling our way. I had one question which was raised by the speculation earlier. Well, suppose the aggregates are coming in stronger, and we decided we do have to make a move. This may seem like a silly question--it would have been a silly question two years ago; maybe it isn't so silly now--but, honorable counsel, are we well protected in the Freedom of Information Act from somebody coming in and saying, ""Say, you are moving the federal funds kind of fast within your ranges. Do you have information that we don't have as to the behavior of the aggregates? I demand such information under the Freedom of Information Act.""","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Do you, Mr. Partee? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'It just requires careful thought-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': ""Sure. Well, that's really all we are saying. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': '--when you adopt a broader range. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': ""I don't see any reason to decide today that we are going to depart from that, so I feel that we are discussing this too much, I guess is what it amounts to--thereby adding to the discussion.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""Well, I don't feel that way.I feel that this recommendation is an important recommendation.I think this discussion is very helpful.Nevertheless, I would accept your conclusion that we need not decide today to observe a federal funds rate range of 1/2 percentage point over the next six months.I don't think we need to decide that.In fact, I don't think we should.But I do feel that the report made by Mr. Partee's [sub]committee and the sympathetic discussion, to the extent that it has taken place, is something that we ought to try to remember for the next few months and evaluate as we see fit, month by month, as we deliberate.So I accept your conclusion.Do you, Mr. Partee?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'It just requires careful thought--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': ""Sure.Well, that's really all we are saying.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': '--when you adopt a broader range.'}]",yes,,,,
755,759,19780516_67_2,MR. BLACK.,"""I was just wondering what odds you would put on an upward revision of that [Q1 GNP] from an actual decline to a positive figure.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Jim, wouldn't you say, though, that if they would scale up their plans, we'd still have a lag time because of [unintelligible] problems? These kinds of problems are worse today than they were five years ago. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Oh, sure. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""So even if plans get built up, it's hard to get the spending in very quickly. Bob Black. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""So it's a huge increase but it's from a fairly low level.I think the orders and survey results available to date would be supportive of a fairly moderate picture.In fact, we will have a reading early in June from the Commerce Department and that would need to be scaled up significantly in order to achieve the staff forecast.So implicit in our own forecast is a view that conditions were reasonably optimistic so that businesses would be prompted to scale up their plans.So what we've seen to date, I think, is what we have hoped for and I don't think it has run beyond that.But, of course, there is that possibility.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Jim, wouldn't you say, though, that if they would scale up their plans, we'd still have a lag time because of [unintelligible] problems?These kinds of problems are worse today than they were five years ago.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Oh, sure.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""So even if plans get built up, it's hard to get the spending in very quickly.Bob Black.""}]",no,,,,
756,760,19780516_268_1,CHAIRMAN MILLER.,"""Well, hearing all that, let me see if I can come up with a proposal to be voted on.""",,"[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Our projections also show a low, along with Richmond's, so I like his 2 percent lower range. I also think we ought to be pretty cautious. It would be a new move in my mind going above 7-1/2 so I'd leave that 8 percent at the top of the range for the same reason that he did. And something like 4 to 9 or 4-1/2 to 8-1/2 on M2 looks fine to me. So I put this in a context of completing what we started here, pausing before we make another discrete new move. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""So I would be willing to move to 7-1/2 as a midpoint--not necessarily tomorrow or this week--not really seeing that myself as a new move but as completing something that we started with the federal funds range of 7-1/4 to 7-3/4 percent.I think going above 7-3/4 would certainly bring us into a new policy area and I'd want to take another look at it.I would agree with the logic that Governor Jackson presented on the ranges for the aggregates.I don't think we want to move down very quickly if for a few weeks the money supply did happen to come in low.Our projections also show a low, along with Richmond's, so I like his 2 percent lower range.I also think we ought to be pretty cautious.It would be a new move in my mind going above 7-1/2 so I'd leave that 8 percent at the top of the range for the same reason that he did.And something like 4 to 9 or 4-1/2 to 8-1/2 on M2 looks fine to me.So I put this in a context of completing what we started here, pausing before we make another discrete new move.""}]",no,,,,
757,761,19780620_185_11,VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""That raises the question of what ranges we should put there.""","Well, I=ll try to be short, Mr. Chairman. Despite the comments I made earlier on being skeptical about the longer-term outlook for business, I do think it=s strong at the moment. We do have these inflationary pressures. We do have speculative concerns that have been referred to. I think we have an expectation in the market of some Federal Reserve tightening and I think we probably should meet that expectation or we would be feeding some of the adverse speculative feeling. I do have some concern over the value of some tightening in terms of the continuing stability of the dollar internationally as well. Therefore, I do think we should move. The 7-1/2 to 8 percent range seems right to me and the B alternative, with some implication that we go to 7-3/4 percent as promptly as the people at the Desk think that=s advisable. I would be a little reluctant to go beyond that but not absolutely allergic to it if that=s necessary--if the aggregates come in on the high side. That raises the question of what ranges we should put there. Those ranges specified under the B alternative look awfully high in terms of our longer-range objectives. I recognize that the projections are also fairly high. It seems to me that we could at least widen the range on the downside, because I don=t think we want to ease very [readily], and I would suggest a lower level of 5. And if we widen the range a little bit, we could leave it 5 to 10 percent. As I say, if it really got to the top part of that range, I think I would go to 8 [on the funds rate], but I would do it with some reluctance. Perhaps the way to express that would be a money market directive and the new language or some other kind of device to make clear that, while we might be willing to move to 8, we'd do it with some due deliberation after a good deal of further evidence comes in.","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'If I track past Committee behavior and average it out, I believe there=s some hope for the short run. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Well, gentlemen we have two major matters of business: (1) the directive and (2) the language. I would suggest that we run through the Committee to get your suggestions for the directive first and look at the language second. Since I cut our Vice Chairman short the last time and left him to the end, the least I can do is to put him up front today. Paul, would you like to lead off? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'doesn=t attempt to make up for the third-quarter overshoot--then I believe that it is quite possible that interest rates will begin to level out for a while.But then beyond that point, where you then get into the question of whether that generates further inflation, you wouldn=t have a leveling out for long.That would have to be assessed, of course, depending on the economy at that point.But in terms of this arithmetic exercise I see no hope.If I track past Committee behavior and average it out, I believe there=s some hope for the short run.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Well, gentlemen we have two major matters of business: (1) the directive and (2) the language.I would suggest that we run through the Committee to get your suggestions for the directive first and look at the language second.Since I cut our Vice Chairman short the last time and left him to the end, the least I can do is to put him up front today.Paul, would you like to lead off?'}]",no,,,,
758,762,19780718_185_8,MR. WALLICH.,"""I can visualize, because of the very fact that NOW accounts have been talked about so widely nationally, that people would be prepared for them now and would be interested in taking advantage of them.""","I would argue very strongly for not changing the present M1 range, and not changing any of the relationships of the three aggregates. First, there are substantive reasons for proceeding as I suggest. We have for a long time had an unrealistic M1 target; we've lived with that by utilizing base drift. We have adjusted it, in effect, from quarter to quarter and we [operated] essentially on a very modified money supply or aggregates target. We have been more nearly on an interest rate target. At the present time I think the dangers of ignoring sudden upward movements on the interest rate, as might come from observing a tight money supply target very closely, are particularly great. Now, we probably are going to have automatic transfers and I am impressed by what Frank says--that they might not produce very much of a change. I can visualize, because of the very fact that NOW accounts have been talked about so widely nationally, that people would be prepared for them now and would be interested in taking advantage of them. I wouldn't write this off. In the least favorable case, I think Steve predicted an improvement in velocity--if you can call it that--of 1 percentage point and the maximum I think you had was 3.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'How about M3--the same? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""I think I'd be inclined to leave all the numbers the same and simply change the emphasis. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Okay. Very interesting proposal. Henry. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'You would announce that as a primary range.And what would you have in the memo items as the ranges for the other aggregates?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'I would use higher levels for M1 than are given in the Bluebook with automated transfers since I don\'t think they are going to have that big of an impact.I would use the ""without"" figures as a basis for the range in M2.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Which one?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'The ""without.""'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""You wouldn't have a figure for an M1 projection?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'I would say ""We would expect....""'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'So are you going with the 4 to 7-1/2 that Phil mentioned or the 4 to 7 or what?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""I would be a little leery about changing the M1 range, even though I don't think--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'You might leave it as a memo item at 4 to 6-1/2.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': '4 to 6-1/2 is reasonable.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'How about M3--the same?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""I think I'd be inclined to leave all the numbers the same and simply change the emphasis.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Okay.Very interesting proposal.Henry.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
759,763,19780815_156_4,CHAIRMAN MILLER.,"""[our view] is that we're in that range and the other things are going to slow down the economy [but firms will] not discharge labor because apparently productivity is not going to [increase].""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Just looking down this quickly, in outline, for real GNP we seem to come out with a consensus lower than the staff's--that is, a little lower than 3-1/2 percent. Inflation looks to be maybe a little stronger than the staff projection, at 7-1/2 plus, and unemployment looks higher at a 6 percent plus figure. That's very helpful to us. I think this is a very helpful process. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""I thought it was interesting, Mr. Chairman, that I didn't hear anybody talking about the unemployment rate varying any more than 5-3/4 percent to 6-1/2 percent--a very narrow range. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GARDNER.', 'text': ""I don't take any exception to the general consensus including the staff's 3-1/2, 7-3/4, and 6.2 for unemployment.I've felt that this recovery is a little stronger than most of my colleagues, I think.I've always felt that.It hasn't yet disappointed me although it may be going to do so very soon.In any event, I have gone along on that course for quite a number of months and I'm not going to change at this point.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Thank you, Steve.Just looking down this quickly, in outline, for real GNP we seem to come out with a consensus lower than the staff's--that is, a little lower than 3-1/2 percent.Inflation looks to be maybe a little stronger than the staff projection, at 7-1/2 plus, and unemployment looks higher at a 6 percent plus figure.That's very helpful to us.I think this is a very helpful process.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""I thought it was interesting, Mr. Chairman, that I didn't hear anybody talking about the unemployment rate varying any more than 5-3/4 percent to 6-1/2 percent--a very narrow range.""}]",yes,no,,,
760,764,19780815_184_1,MR. COLDWELL.,"""If I read the directive right--the way this is written on the back of page 13--you start moving the fed funds rate on a monetary aggregates approach [if growth is] significantly above or below the midpoint and on a money market when it's close to or beyond the upper or lower limits.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""But I'm leaving myself a half point above that in the event we need it. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'You said to an 8-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'Yes, a flat 8 percent midpoint; a 7-3/4 to 8-1/2 range. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'We just had accounting trouble. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Did you mean money market or monetary aggregates directive? '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Ernie.Phil Coldwell I believe is next.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I came prepared to recommend almost exactly what Paul Volcker said--a 4 to 8 percent range on M1 and 6 to 10 on M2.However, I did come prepared to raise the federal funds rate range [to] 7-3/4 to 8-1/2, not 8-1/4.I think we need that margin up there in the event these aggregates do start breaking out--to put a little more pressure on it.I'd adopt a money market directive, which would mean that if they're moving toward that upper range you'd start moving the rate.I would skew the midpoint to an 8 percent rate, thus moving to that 8 percent.But I'm leaving myself a half point above that in the event we need it.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'You said to an 8--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'Yes, a flat 8 percent midpoint; a 7-3/4 to 8-1/2 range.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'We just had accounting trouble.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Did you mean money market or monetary aggregates directive?'}]",no,,,,
761,765,19780919_92_1,MR. COLDWELL.,"""Also, I'm a little curious about your description of industrial production slowing when we're still getting more than 1/2 percent a month, having come off [unintelligible].""","Also, I'm a little curious about your description of industrial production slowing when we're still getting more than 1/2 percent a month, having come off [unintelligible]. I thought it was doing very well. The consumer goods weakening I thought was something that needed to come along, and if we're going to maintain 1/2 percent growth with that kind of weakening then [something] else has to be strengthening. So I'm a little curious about your description but your net result is pretty close to mine.","[{'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""I am a little curious, Jim, about your description of the employment as slowing. July and August I always thought were slow months anyway and I don't really see anything there. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Seasonally adjusted. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""So we're still very much on the pessimistic side, looking for 1-1/2 to 2 percent real growth and, for that reason, a little less inflation than the Board staff has projected.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Frank, the ticker tape this morning says chief executive officers of U.S. companies turned more pessimistic about the economy according to the Conference Board's latest survey.Its measure of business confidence fell to 49 percent in this year's third quarter, down from 58 percent in quarter two.Phil.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I don't have any problems with the staff forecast in the aggregate.I don't happen to agree with the pattern they're showing.I think they're overly optimistic on the degree of impact of the tax cut in the first quarter.I think we're likely to have more inflation than the staff shows and probably a little less GNP in terms of real growth.But my differences are in terms of a half percent--not terribly off from the basic pattern in terms of the total.I am a little curious, Jim, about your description of the employment as slowing.July and August I always thought were slow monthsanywayand I don't really see anything there.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Seasonally adjusted.'}]",yes,no,,,
762,766,19781121_63_1,MR. HOLMES.,"""It probably would be.""",It probably would be. It just gets very complicated when you try to look at it--,"[{'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': 'We have investing arrangements now in all three of the currencies that would be involved. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Because that might [amount] to quite a bit. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': 'It could be, yes. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'The present authority would be up to $1-1/2 billion. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'It would be counterproductive to pay off the Germans. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': ""That's right.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'As you described it.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': 'Right.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Chuck, did you have a question?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'What do we do with the currencies, Alan?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': 'Well, we invest them in whatever we can.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'In Germany?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'In the currency of whatever country it happens to be.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': 'Whatever currency it happens to be.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'And would we pay a rate of return to the Treasury on the warehousing?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': 'No, we would get the interest.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'And they take the exchange risk, Chuck.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': ""It's a way of financing for the Treasury, really.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""It's just so we can hold [the foreign currencies] and they have dollars, that's all.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Well, I was just wondering, would we put it into some kind of short-term investment?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': 'We have investing arrangements now in all three of the currencies that would be involved.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Because that might [amount] to quite a bit.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': 'It could be, yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'The present authority would be up to $1-1/2 billion.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'It would be counterproductive to pay off the Germans.'}]",yes,no,,,
763,767,19781121_99_1,MR. WINN.,"""On the business [side], you get a strange dichotomy.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. EASTBURN.', 'text': ""Well, reacting to what Phil said, I continue to find it difficult to see how you have this kind of soft landing with the very high inflation rates that are forecasted. And just on the other side of Mark's comment, at a recent meeting we had with business people, the view was unanimous that we are in for a recession. I think there is this kind of talk going on. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Well, some of them want it. Willis. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""Jim, you're grounding this all on the current level of restraint in terms of interest rates?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Yes, and the expected impacts over time.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'But you are not talking about additional restraint.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""No, that's right.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'Or higher rates of interest than we now have.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""Well, we've assumed a funds rate of around 9-3/4 percent throughout 1979.So we are talking about 12 basis points or something.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""Well, 12 basis points; you can't be that [fine-tuned].""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""That's a smaller percentage though.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'I think the forecast is excessively pessimistic under these conditions.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Dave.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. EASTBURN.', 'text': ""Well, reacting to what Phil said, I continue to find it difficult to see how you have this kind of soft landing with the very high inflation rates that are forecasted.And just on the other side of Mark's comment, at a recent meeting we had with business people, the view was unanimous that we are in for a recession.I think there is this kind of talk going on.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Well, some of them want it.Willis.'}]",no,,,,
764,768,19790417_259_4,CHAIRMAN MILLER.,"""I think we can sell 4 to 8-1/2 percent on M2.""","All right, let's try it again. Where did we come out? Murray, you're supposed to do the rest! I think we can sell 4 to 8-1/2 percent on M2.","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't feel very sensitive to these ranges when the figure bounces around plus or minus 5 percentage points. I can't worry about a half percentage point on either end. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Henry, you had 2-1/2 to 6-1/2 and 4 to 8 as the ranges. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""I have a hard time because I add 2-1/2 percentage points to each of these and it gets very high for M1. M2 wouldn't worry me so much. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""And 3 to 8 percent didn't do that?m .PARTEE.No.The 4 to 8 is close--6-1/2 percent is the midpoint that is specified on that chart over the six months--so even that's a little short.It really ought to be what Bob suggested, 5 to 9 percent.But, I, of course--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Nancy, you had--'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'I had 3 to 7 and 4-1/2 to 8-1/2.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Yes, 3 to 7 and 4-1/2 to 8-1/2.Paul, YOU had the 2 to 7 and 3 to 8 that Phil had specified.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't feel very sensitive to these ranges when the figure bounces around plus or minus 5 percentage points.I can't worry about a half percentage point on either end.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Henry, you had 2-1/2 to 6-1/2 and 4 to 8 as the ranges.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""I have a hard time because I add 2-1/2 percentage points to each of these and it gets very high for M1.M2 wouldn't worry me so much.""}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,-200+ tokens
765,769,19790711_137_4,CHAIRMAN MILLER.,"""We are not rebasing; I think everyone understands that.""","Thank you, Mark. Perhaps I should pause to make a couple of comments. One is that if we make any change in the ranges for '79, it would be a restatement for the whole year, fourth quarter to fourth quarter. We are not rebasing; I think everyone understands that. And my intention in dealing with ' 8 0 in our report to the Congress--1 hope it's the staff's intention--is to do so in the text and not present a graph because then we would have to find a base point. And that we don't want to do, if you follow me. No chart, in other words. We'll say we are going to have this range for '79 and here is the chart for '79. But for 1980, then, we are going to have a range of so-and-so and it's just going to be in the text. We will not, therefore, pick the point from which we have that growth. I think that will give us a little less trouble when we set the ranges firmly in January or February when we do it for the year. Then we present it as our real target for the year and now we are just giving a preliminary indication. So I think that will be helpful. Bob Mayo.","[{'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""I was going to argue that we ought to lift the bottom of that range so that we don't let money grow too slowly but he scared me away from that with his reference to whatever staff investigation is going on that has identified some other factors and if that's right, that would worry me. I would just point out that even if we keep the existing ranges and assume 1 percent for ATS we could have money growth between now and the end of the year at 6-1/2 percent and still fall within the 4-1/2 percent ceiling range, which I think would be an appropriate rate of growth for the second half of the year. If we took what was alternative B in the Bluebook, we could have money growth--with ATS--at 10 percent between now and the end of the year, which I think clearly would be the wrong response in the face of the inflation problem that we have. With regard to 1980, heaven only knows. I guess without information of the kind that Henry was talking about, I'd be inclined at this point to keep ' 8 0 the same as '79 until we figure out a bit more about what's going on. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""I was going to argue that we ought to lift the bottom of that range so that we don't let money grow too slowly but he scared me away from that with his reference to whatever staff investigation is going on that has identified some other factors and if that's right, that would worry me.I would just point out that even if we keep the existing ranges and assume 1 percent for ATS we could have money growth between now and the end of the year at 6-1/2 percent and still fall within the 4-1/2 percent ceiling range, which I think would be an appropriate rate of growth for the second half of the year.If we took what was alternative B in the Bluebook, we could have money growth--with ATS--at 10 percent between now and the end of the year, which I think clearly would be the wrong response in the face of the inflation problem that we have.With regard to 1980, heaven only knows.I guess without information of the kind that Henry was talking about, I'd be inclined at this point to keep ' 8 0 the same as '79 until we figure out a bit more about what's going on.""}]",no,,,,
766,770,19791006_149_2,MR. RICE.,"""I would like to see something like 9 percent on the low side and 15 to 16 percent on the high side.""","Yes, wider on both the low and the high sides. I would like to see something like 9 percent on the low side and 15 to 16 percent on the high side.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Those are enough variables to consider. And we'll consider any further bias later. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BAUGHMAN.', 'text': ""I find Governor Coldwell's suggestion fairly reasonable, all things considered. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I would like to see a wider range on the federal funds rate. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'Wider, Emmett? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'If we shoot for the--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Well, the 4.6 percent [growth in M1 for September to December] is not at the very top.That gives us 5.3 percent for the year and the top of the M1 range is 6 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Growth reaches the top for M2.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Well, the M2 is a little [above] and M3 is below.There has been a shift from the thrift institutions into the banks and that accounts for some of that.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, these numbers are illustrative'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'What is the projection for October, Steve?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'For Ml?'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': '4.8'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'We already have to have a November-December averaging below October.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't know whether this facilitates the discussions or not.Let's for the moment concentrate only on the money supply and the federal funds constraint.Those are enough variables to consider.And we'll consider any further bias later.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BAUGHMAN.', 'text': ""I find Governor Coldwell's suggestion fairly reasonable, all things considered.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I would like to see a wider range on the federal funds rate.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'Wider, Emmett?'}]",yes,yes,-5 sentences,neutral,-5 sentences
767,771,19791006_369_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Oh, I said we would have to widen the ranges on the alternative""","Oh, I said we would have to widen the ranges on the alternative [technique].","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'I do, too '}, {'speaker': 'M R . MAYO.', 'text': ""Paul, one of the problems with the alternative is that we either adopt a wide range or start with a funds rate that's already above where it is now. In other words, if it's at a little less than 12 percent now, and we put our range at 12-1/2 to 14 percent or whatever you suggested, that raises another difficulty. Maybe it's mechanical. But from a realistic standpoint we almost have to widen the range on the alternative. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I will just give you my interpretation of a non-mechanical [application], as I put it from the beginning, of the new technique.The difference isn't all that dramatic.There will be more emphasis on [the new technique] in the press announcement because it will be, in effect, a warning that the federal funds rate is going to be permitted to fluctuate over a wider range.Of course, we can say that in either announcement, but it will be said a little more strongly [with the announcement of the new operating method].""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': ""I think we are going to get a bigger psychological impact than you think we're going to get.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'I do, too'}, {'speaker': 'M R . MAYO.', 'text': ""Paul, one of the problems with the alternative is that we either adopt a wide range or start with a funds rate that's already above where it is now.In other words, if it's at a little less than 12 percent now, and we put our range at 12-1/2 to 14 percent or whatever you suggested, that raises another difficulty.Maybe it's mechanical.But from a realistic standpoint we almost have to widen the range on the alternative.""}]",no,,,,
768,772,19800109_433_3,MR. KICHLINE.,"""On the inflation side, curiously enough, the Board staff's forecast would be in the upper range of inflation rates of outside forecasts that I've seen for 1981.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""The Board staff's forecast is under those of forecasters who are not bound by that constraint; I think those forecasters generally accept and expect a substantial tax cut sometime this year. Therefore, the shape of their recession is different. Their recession is shorter than ours and its end is different; instead of saucering out very flat, it comes up more V-shaped. And their inflation expectations--although I don't know this for a fact, but it seems logical from these differences in their view of the income pattern--should be higher than ours. Can you say anything about outside forecasts and the like? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""But I would argue also in looking at consumer debt, which has risen relative to income, that the consumer probably looks at it in relation to future income.So, with future nominal income rising, the debt ratio to him appears less than it is.My main comment is on the nature of our staff's forecast.It is in a sense a formal exercise because you don't give weight to the political probability of a tax cut.So this [forecast] is what would happen if the things that are already planned and decided were to happen.The Board staff's forecast is under those of forecasters who are not bound by that constraint; I think those forecasters generally accept and expect a substantial tax cut sometime this year.Therefore, the shape of their recession is different.Their recession is shorter than ours and its end is different; instead of saucering out very flat, it comes up more V-shaped.And their inflation expectations--although I don't know this for a fact, but it seems logical from these differences in their view of the income pattern--should be higher than ours.Can you say anything about outside forecasts and the like?""}]",no,,,,
769,773,19800109_555_4,MR. WALLICH.,"""So if an unreasonable interest rate comes out, I reserve the [option] to evaluate that on its own terms.""","Well, I continue to think that the economy moves on interest rates. If I rely on the money supply, it's because in [a period of] inflation I think that's a better way to get the right interest rates than to try to do it outright. But I don't regard the money supply as a black box where I have to accept everything that comes out. So if an unreasonable interest rate comes out, I reserve the [option] to evaluate that on its own terms. As Nancy said, we have reduced the growth of the money supply for 3 years running and have brought inflation from about 7 percent to 13 percent in doing so.","[{'speaker': 'MR. TIMLEN.', 'text': ""I think it would have an important impact on inflationary expectations and help our credibility. It will also [add] strongly to the message conveyed in terms of the relevant interest rates in the foreign exchange markets, where I must say the emphasis is on interest rate levels as opposed to the movements against reserve targets. I don't have a strong feeling on what the federal funds range should be, whether it should be 11-1/2 to 16 percent or 11-1/2 to 15-1/2 percent. I'd just as soon stay with the existing range of 11-1/2 to 15-1/2. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Wallich. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'to] come down to a plateau for growth of the money supply and try to hold it there rather than reduce it a percentage point year after year; and a rate of growth in the money supply of about 5-1/2 percent strikes me as about where that minimum is, given the other things that are going on in the economy.So, I can buy alternative B for the quarter, but I do have a higher target for the year as a whole.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Timlen.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TIMLEN.', 'text': ""My preference, Mr. Chairman, is for alternative C. I think it's consistent with efforts to reduce the growth in the aggregates over the year 1980 and also consistent with the [view] that the basic economy may be slowing in the first quarter.I think it would have an important impact on inflationary expectations and help our credibility.It will also [add] strongly to the message conveyed in terms of the relevant interest rates in the foreign exchange markets, where I must say the emphasis is on interest rate levels as opposed to the movements against reserve targets.I don't have a strong feeling on what the federal funds range should be, whether it should be 11-1/2 to 16 percent or 11-1/2 to 15-1/2 percent.I'd just as soon stay with the existing range of 11-1/2 to 15-1/2.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Wallich.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,,
770,774,19800520_145_6,MR. KICHLINE.,"""So, our view is that one of the elements driving the saving rate down recently has been the surge in the relative prices of necessities; and individuals have been willing to let the savings side slip as an attempt to maintain their standard of living.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""So, we think we've roughly captured that. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Partee. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'I wonder if you would talk a little about your projections on the saving rate, Jim. What bothers me is that you have such a small rise in the saving rate over the next year when one considers that it has been abnormally low and that we seem to see every evidence that people are trying to pay down debt and improve their financial position. And, of course, if that saving rate were to come in significantly higher than you have projected, it would imply a considerably weaker economy. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'They are not there yet.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'May I ask: In your projection of personal income did you anticipate the number that came out yesterday, which was essentially zero?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""Yes.In fact that was largely based upon the labor market developments in April, which we had available.Wages and salaries declined at about a $7-1/2 billion annual rate.And that's one of the principal ingredients giving us for the second quarter a virtually unchanged saving rate even though consumption spending is declining very rapidly.So, we think we've roughly captured that.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Partee.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'I wonder if you would talk a little about your projections on the saving rate, Jim.What bothers me is that you have such a small rise in the saving rate over the next year when one considers that it has been abnormally low and that we seem to see every evidence that people are trying to pay down debt and improve their financial position.And, of course, if that saving rate were to come in significantly higher than you have projected, it would imply a considerably weaker economy.'}]",yes,,,,
771,775,19801219_289_2,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""We are very close to the point, which is relevant even to our short-term decision, where these numbers are going to go all over the lot presumably.""","Well, we also face some uncertainties. We are very close to the point, which is relevant even to our short-term decision, where these numbers are going to go all over the lot presumably. It's conceivable that we may need another meeting here in January. I don't know that we have to decide that, but it may be a good idea to keep that in mind for a variety of reasons.","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'At the February meeting. We were assuming that there would be an extra day at the February meeting. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Does that mean that it's all going to be sprung on us that day or are you going to distribute something in advance or what? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Well, if God's willing, we will distribute something a week or two in advance. That is our plan, but this is a very large-- ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Now may be the best time [for my comments].I think that would just about do it.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'Paul, if we do choose to postpone until some future time our discussion of the longer-range strategy--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""No, I'm not suggesting that.I'm just saying that I don't think we can be very definitive about it.On this schedule we would open the meeting tomorrow morning with that discussion.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'Well, I was just going to ask: After the study of operating procedures is completed, is the plan to give the FOMC a little more time than usual to chew over it because it seems to me--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'When are you expecting to have something for us on that, Mr. Axilrod?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'At the February meeting.We were assuming that there would be an extra day at the February meeting.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Does that mean that it's all going to be sprung on us that day or are you going to distribute something in advance or what?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Well, if God's willing, we will distribute something a week or two in advance.That is our plan, but this is a very large--""}]",no,,,,
772,776,19801219_565_2,MR. GRAMLEY.,"""My whole point is--""",But that's my whole point. My whole point is--,"[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""The problem, though, is the numbers that are going to be used to make up the reserve aggregates and what the reserve aggregates are going to look like. The M-1A number, depending on whether or not one takes into account the staff's estimate of NOW accounts in January, is from -2.1 to 4.0 percent. The number for M-1B is 4.6 to 7.5 percent. And I think this-- ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Those problems clearly exist, but I'm not sure what your operational point is. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Steve's view that the federal funds rate would probably come down if with $1.5 billion in borrowing the money supply came in a little weak and the judgment was that it was running below this target.But my interpretation of this is that the Desk would move a little more slowly in reducing the borrowing target under those conditions than if we didn't have this reservation that says if interest rates are declining.So there would be a reflection in declining interest rates, but that would be moderated in the rate of speed with which the borrowing level was reduced.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""I think in principle it's a good formulation because it says there has to be some compromise when we're not meeting the target on the aggregates and having a movement in interest rates.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""The problem, though, is the numbers that are going to be used to make up the reserve aggregates and what the reserve aggregates are going to look like.The M-1A number, depending on whether or not one takes into account the staff's estimate of NOW accounts in January, is from -2.1 to 4.0 percent.The number for M-1B is 4.6 to 7.5 percent.And I think this--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Those problems clearly exist, but I'm not sure what your operational point is.""}]",no,,,,
773,777,19801219_723_1,SPEAKER(?).,"""It was pretty good.""",It was pretty good.,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'A billion and a half dollars. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I hear no appeals that we have another plan that is going to command wider support. I will, therefore, call for a vote. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""I'll mention that I'd go back to 25 years ago and add in tone and feel of the market and operate in bills only. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Gee, we didn't have any inflation in those days. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""We don't say how many days.It could be 30 days.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We have three choices: a period of time, a period of days, or weekly average.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ALTMANN.', 'text': ""That's seven days in the weekly average.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': ""I'm for a period of time.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Let\'s say ""a period of time""--I will interpret that as a series of days--and change the 16 percent to 15 percent.We are reversing the language to conform with the way it was before.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'Are we going to talk when it gets to 16 percent?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Unless somebody has a suggestion that he thinks will command [wider] support, I would propose that we vote.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WINN.', 'text': ""You're going to specify the borrowing at--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'A billion and a half dollars.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I hear no appeals that we have another plan that is going to command wider support.I will, therefore, call for a vote.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""I'll mention that I'd go back to 25 years ago and add in tone and feel of the market and operate in bills only.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Gee, we didn't have any inflation in those days.""}]",yes,no,,,
774,778,19810331_211_2,VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.,"""and then there might or might not be a need for another consultation.""","Well, I was a little confused immediately after the meeting until I talked with Paul a couple days later because during the consultation Paul had said--and everybody went along--that he wouldn't be particularly disturbed if the funds rate went as low as, say, even 14 percent and then there might or might not be a need for another consultation. And yet we were required to add reserves when it was down to about 13-1/2 or 13-7/8 percent. So, I was thinking that maybe we had a kind of rough floor set around 14 percent. But then I realized, after talking to him, that the way he was interpreting this was that we basically didn't have a floor.","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""And it seems to me that in the future, if we continue with this operation, every time there's a telephone consultation and a decision is made to change the nonborrowed reserve path--ignoring the floor or ceiling as the case may be--then for the rest of the intermeeting period we are operating without a floor or without a ceiling. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We could arrive at a different decision. I think that was the decision we arrived at [in this case]. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""We could do both, I think: reset our path and reset a floor or a ceiling. We just didn't want to reduce that floor, that's all. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""I'd say there were those two occasions when we were guided by the funds rate.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'That was a time when we were concerned about reserves growing too slowly, right?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'Well, reserves had been growing slowly but, also, the Committee had not held its telephone consultation.After that, as the Chairman said, the funds rate did not constrain us and it dropped down a bit.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""At this point, there is no floor to the fed funds rate.And it seems to me that in the future, if we continue with this operation, every time there's a telephone consultation and a decision is made to change the nonborrowed reserve path--ignoring the floor or ceiling as the case may be--then for the rest of the intermeeting period we are operating without a floor or without a ceiling.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We could arrive at a different decision.I think that was the decision we arrived at [in this case].'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""We could do both, I think: reset our path and reset a floor or a ceiling.We just didn't want to reduce that floor, that's all.""}]",no,,,,
775,779,19810707_214_2,MR. PARTEE.,"""What Jim says is driving them is [the assumption of] a relatively small money supply expansion and [the staff forecast] has to force that on an economy with quite a lot of nominal GNP.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""I think their expectation is that interest rates are going to come down before the end of the year. If this kind of view prevailed in the economy, I think we'd have a massive spread of heart attacks. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'Starting at this table! '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'Yes, starting at this table probably. It just does not seem to me that we can have this kind of interest rate structure lasting for two years without some very serious financial collapses. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""And we've never had the kind of inflation, interest rates, and high marginal tax rates of the sort we have now.I don't know how high these interest rates are.They're high for some people and they're not high for other people.I don't know how to resolve that.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""Well, I came out the way Bill did on the real rate route.It seems to me that these kinds of rates could not persist over this long a period without causing some kind of collapse.I have found in the last six weeks that the apprehension and the anxiety level have been increasing in the thrift industry and in small and medium size businesses.I think their expectation is that interest rates are going to come down before the end of the year.If this kind of view prevailed in the economy, I think we'd have a massive spread of heart attacks.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'Starting at this table!'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'Yes, starting at this table probably.It just does not seem to me that we can have this kind of interest rate structure lasting for two years without some very serious financial collapses.'}]",no,,,,
776,780,19810818_535_1,MR. PARTEE.,"""No, I haven't changed my mind.""","No, I haven't changed my mind. I think more than I did the last time that it's the wrong thing to do.","[{'speaker': 'MR. ALTMANN.', 'text': 'Yes Governor Gramley Yes President Keehn Yes Governor Partee Well, I have to vote against it again since I voted against it the last time and it is exactly the same as it was before. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'You could have changed your mind. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I think we can put it in there and then put in the body of the [policy record] discussion again our concern about this factor.Let's assume we will do that and let's vote.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I hate to do this, but I have one other small technical point on line 6, where it says the increase in retail sales reflected some recovery in sales of new cars.It\'s probably more used cars than new.I would suggest it say ""some recovery in sales at automotive dealers,"" which is more likely to be the case.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think that will be accepted.Well, with all that, I would propose just sticking in the word ""continues"" on line 52: ""In the short run the Committee continues to seek...""Are we ready to vote?Vote.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ALTMANN.', 'text': 'Chairman Volcker Yes Vice Chairman SolomonYes President Boykin Yes President CorriganYes Governor GramleyYes President Keehn YesGovernor ParteeWell, I have to vote against it again since I voted against it the last time and it is exactly the same as it was before.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'You could have changed your mind.'}]",yes,no,,,
777,781,19811006_104_4,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""[They think] the course is certainly the right one.""","I must say that among the bankers I have talked with there's a growing sense of concern about small and medium size businesses. Several of the bankers have commented that there are bankruptcies that are in [train]--that at this point, nothing can be done to defer them and they're just plain going to happen. Despite that, just to echo Tony's comments, I haven't talked to anybody I would regard as a responsible individual who would suggest that we ought to change what we're doing. [They think] the course is certainly the right one. I just want to comment a bit on bankruptcies. Though that is a statistic that is available and is followed, there are also a lot of people who are just quietly going out of business at this point, and that is not a statistic that we can follow very easily. And there are a lot of people who feel that some of these small and medium size companies are simply getting what they can out of the business before they actually have to go into bankruptcy. So, this is having an adverse impact on that group. Let me ask Jim Kichline something on what he said about construction. My impression is that major construction is holding up pretty well in terms of orders and that kind of thing. Is that right?","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': ""The state had its slowest [tourist] season in the last ten years in the southern part of Florida and that also affected related industries. The lumber industry, which is big in our area, is also in dire straits because of the housing situation; the carpet industry in Georgia, where we have the capital of the world's carpet business, is beginning to come under some stress. Putting all of this together, my feeling is that overall we have a mixed picture. The economy is moving sideways. Some of the industries are prospering and the ones we would expect to be hurt are being hurt. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': ""So, we're finding significant signs of weakness both in commercial and residential construction and in the lending institutions other than banks, i.e. the thrifts.I find these days that just about every S&L executive carries around in his pocket a schedule of weeks to go or months to go in terms of how long the S&L's equity will last based on its current earnings.There's a lot of worry in that industry.The tourist industry in southeast Florida is way off.The state had its slowest [tourist] season in the last ten years in the southern part of Florida and that also affected related industries.The lumber industry, which is big in our area, is also in dire straits because of the housing situation; the carpet industry in Georgia, where we have the capital of the world's carpet business, is beginning to come under some stress.Putting all of this together, my feeling is that overall we have a mixed picture.The economy is moving sideways.Some of the industries are prospering and the ones we would expect to be hurt are being hurt.""}]",no,,,,
778,782,19811006_159_6,MR. SCHULTZ.,"""That was exactly the [sentiment]: I'm dying, what are you doing to me?""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""They recognize that the relief they need is legislative relief rather than an easing of interest rates through monetary policy. It seems to me a rather curious turn. I understand that today is the day they're going to present keys to everybody. I met with them last week and their message is for the Federal Reserve to hold tight but that they need relief. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""In the coal or other energy-related industries, both oil and gas, we have some camp cities where people are housed essentially in temporary housing simply because they are in boom communities.That's particularly true in Wyoming and on parts of the western slope of Colorado.One thing that I would like to mention is that I have met with the homebuilders in our District and probably the rest of the presidents at least and perhaps the Board members will have an opportunity to meet with homebuilders also.I hear two curious comments.One is that they're about to go out of business and they need some relief.By the same token, and almost in the same breath, they say that they believe Federal Reserve policy to be the correct policy and thus they feel uneasy about even coming to talk with us.They recognize that the relief they need is legislative relief rather than an easing of interest rates through monetary policy.It seems to me a rather curious turn.I understand that today is the day they're going to present keys to everybody.I met with them last week and their message is for the Federal Reserve to hold tightbut that they need relief.""}]",no,,,,
779,783,19811117_641_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""We keep promising these short-term results that we don't get.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""For the fourth quarter a number of 7 percent also was put down, which will probably be missed and probably will be understood. But if the Committee then decides to put down a November-December number that is also 7 percent, people are going to wonder after you've missed that one. This would be your third try. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'That is partly what bothers me. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': ""We're becoming predictable. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'But you\'re saying here ""after noting the shortfall"" or ""after accepting a shortfall.""I don\'t think we need to say that.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""I think the lesser evil is to put the 7 percent number down and not worry about the fact that we're changing.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""The only alternative is to put a short-term range in and I don't want to suggest that.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""It's easier to say 7 percent for the last two months.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, if I may say so, in response to President Solomon's comment: I'm not an expert on public relations but the Committee had put down a third-quarter number of 7 percent; it was missed and I think it was understood.For the fourth quarter a number of 7 percent also was put down, which will probably be missed and probably will be understood.But if the Committee then decides to put down a November-December number that is also 7 percent, people are going to wonder after you've missed that one.This would be your third try.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'That is partly what bothers me.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': ""We're becoming predictable.""}]",no,,,,
780,784,19811222_230_4,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""But the discrepancies in the numbers were even larger than we had.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't know what the lesson is to that. But it was an extremely erratic picture. It was poor-- ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""But they don't have the innovation and the technology-- ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'They had gradually declining interest rates; that is the thing that has helped. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I'll put it that way.It depends upon what one thinks M2 is measuring and what a transition of money into those accounts may mean.It might have been worth distributing, but I forgot about it, a little set of charts that Mr. Truman's people circulated this morning[at the Board meeting].The charts were notable for showing that currently none of the main countries was near its monetary targets this year and that enormous discrepancies--larger than for the United States by a considerable margin--had developed between the different Ms. There were actual minus numbers for M1 in some cases with 12, 14, 15 percent increases in M2 or M3 as the case may be.The only country that showed a nice orderly pattern was the country which doesn't have monetary targets.That was Japan.I don't know what the lesson is to that.But it was an extremely erratic picture.It was poor--""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""But they don't have the innovation and the technology--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'They had gradually declining interest rates; that is the thing that has helped.'}]",no,,,,
781,785,19820202_521_9,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""If it began declining further, we might well [respond].""","Look, this is about degree. I'm saying we don't move very hastily if M1 begins falling. If we got a couple of weeks of decline--let's say in a few weeks it fell off $6 billion just to pick that number out of the air--the market would be easing because we would be quite satisfied with that and could afford to be somewhat more relaxed about it. I'm not making a fine judgment as to how much to let borrowing go down. I'm saying we wouldn't at the very least begin making discretionary adjustments and we wouldn't begin pumping more money in than the path said with a fairly sizable decline in M1. We'd say we were happy about that. We might let the automatic [response] that Bob Black was referring to work, but we wouldn't begin taking aggressive action to keep [borrowing] up while [M1] declined by $5 or $6 billion. We'd be delighted. If it began declining further, we might well [respond]. Now, just where the number is, I don't know. I have some figures that may not be out of the ballpark. The preliminary figures have been very poor in terms of indicators, but suppose it came out [as a decline of] more than $2 billion--say, $2-1/2 billion, which it could easily do. And suppose we had another decline of that magnitude the following week. One can always hope. We would then have a $5 billion decline and a sizable decline may be in train for February and I think we just ought to be delighted. If that continued, then we would expect to see some easing in the market, but would not be aggressive in trying to offset the decline during this 2- or 3-week period. We'd welcome the decline.","[{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""That's coupled with the thought you also expressed that we would move against any evidence above zero and would tolerate or accept and be grateful for anything below zero. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That's right. Precisely. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""I think that's precisely what I'd like to see happen. ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'We could fall off the cliff on the other side. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': 'And that puts you between ""B"" and ""A,"" not between ""B"" and ""C.""'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Yes, it\'s almost to ""B."" Of course, it is between ""B"" and ""A""but it\'s a trivial distance from ""B.""'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'It\'s on the left side of ""B."" It\'s almost the same.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""It just looks to me a little funny, now that I look at it, to say we want 1 percent growth.That's just a fine [line] after this bulge.What's so magic about one percent?We're willing to accept, if we have to, what we already have but we wouldn't like to see it going up any further.[Zero] may make a little common sense.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""That's coupled with the thought you also expressed that we would move against any evidence above zero and would tolerate or accept and be grateful for anything below zero.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That's right.Precisely.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""I think that's precisely what I'd like to see happen.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'We could fall off the cliff on the other side.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
782,786,19820330_211_2,MR. KEEHN.,"""Whether they can or not I don't know, because the attitude between management and the UAW, as you know, is very poor there.""","They have to get a lot more. Whether they can or not I don't know, because the attitude between management and the UAW, as you know, is very poor there. I don't know of any tangible information about those discussions.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That's in process now, isn't it? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""I hear a lot of gossip. Harvester, frankly can't [mirror] the GM and Ford settlements. They've got to get more [concessions]. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Quite a lot more, I would think. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""How much do you see those attitudes reflected in wage bargaining, let's say--whether it's union bargaining or otherwise?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""I think pretty considerably.There has been a significant change in attitude on the part of organized labor, not only regarding terms and conditions, but in their whole approach to the situation.I'm told, for example, with regard to the automotive industry, that Ford and GM renegotiations have been important financially, but much more importantly the attitude of the UAW is different now.They are much more realistic currently than they were; even 4 or 5 months ago they took a very hard attitude on plant closings.Now they come in and say: Gee, isn't there a way that we can work something out so that you don't have to close that plant?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Do you hear any gossip about the Harvester negotiation?That's in process now, isn't it?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""I hear a lot of gossip.Harvester, frankly can't [mirror] the GM and Ford settlements.They've got to get more [concessions].""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Quite a lot more, I would think.'}]",no,,,,
783,787,19820330_266_5,MR. AXILROD.,"""But the quarterly model, which is of course often wrong, would suggest growth at these interest rates also.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""That's how I would respond to it. Maybe Jim-- ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""No, I wouldn't [disagree]. ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""But, Steve, doesn't that prove that the congestion that we're anticipating is not in this calendar year but next year? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'How do you reconcile that with your interest rate projections for the rest of the year in Appendix 2 in which you show the fed funds rate declining?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Well, some of that will be implicit in my comments.In a sense, it assumes that the buildup in liquidity in the first quarter and late last year, reflected in first-quarter average growth in M1 of around 10 percent and also a large increase in M2, is divested; it is used willingly by the public to finance an expansion in spending.If it is not and if the public really wants to hold that liquidity--it wasn't just a temporary reaction to uncertainty which is going to be unwound--then our interest rate forecast of a very slight decline might even seem a bit optimistic, which would make the GNP forecast a bit optimistic.That's how I would respond to it.Maybe Jim--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""No, I wouldn't [disagree].""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""But, Steve, doesn't that prove that the congestion that we're anticipating is not in this calendar yearbut next year?""}]",no,,,,
784,788,19820330_295_10,MR. BALLES.,"""I'd like to hear how the staff would answer that question.""","Basically, in the Twelfth District, without going into a lot of detail and more doom and gloom, we figure the economy slipped further into a recession this month. It's not just the forest products industry. Unfortunately, it's almost all the other major industries we have, including aerospace, where commercial orders are down more than defense orders are up, electronics, nonferrous metals, etc. But, really, what I'd like to do is to come back to a question I raised with the staff yesterday and ask it once more, hoping that they are wiser than I am. I raise this in view of the fact that I have a couple of speeches scheduled this week up in the Pacific Northwest for audiences likely not to be terribly friendly given that the unemployment rates are as high as 25 percent in some counties in Washington and Oregon mostly, but not entirely, because of the forest products industry. The $64 dollar question, of course, is: What in the heck is keeping those interest rates up in spite of the fact that we've had great success in bringing the inflation rate down? For a couple of years now I have been more or less promising these same people that if we got the inflation rate down--bit the bullet and persisted in tight money policy--the interest rates would come down sooner or later. Well, they certainly haven't come down as yet. So, while I have my own explanation, I don't consider it terribly convincing even to myself. I'd like to hear how the staff would answer that question. What is keeping those real interest rates up there despite the fact that we've had very marked success, with more success on the horizon, in getting the inflation rate down? If you can help me, I'd be grateful.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': ""Yes, we've had a lot. We're also now beginning to get stories--the press are making a lot of it, or at least are writing about it a lot--about people who have come down to the land of milk and honey and are unable to find jobs and they are living in campers, are out of money, and don't have enough money to go back home. That's pretty isolated. But yes, we've had a lot of in-migration. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Balles. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': ""But the markets have improved substantially and there's a lot of buying activity and lot of orders being written in the markets now.Again, I don't know whether people down our way are over-reacting in one sense because we are now finally seeing some of the effects of the slowdown.And we are more or less seeing that for the first time, which might cause a bit of an over-reaction.I think the fundamentals down our way really don't look that bad.Agriculture has already been mentioned, and we have basically the same situation in agriculture.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'Are you getting a lot of in-migration?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': ""Yes, we've had a lot.We're also now beginning to get stories--the press are making a lot of it, or at least are writing about it a lot--about people who have come down to the land of milk and honey and are unable to find jobs and they are living in campers, are out of money, and don't have enough money to go back home.That's pretty isolated.But yes, we've had a lot of in-migration.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Balles.'}]",yes,,,,
785,789,19820518_150_7,MR. BOEHNE.,"""One of the things that seems to be at work here is that they see a longer-term deterioration of their competitive position going out into '83, '84, '85, and '86.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': ""Why don't we move to Jim Kichline, who is here, and others for the report on the economic situation. Jim. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.] '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Thank you, Jim. Ed. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. GREENE.', 'text': ""Well, as I said, there was some short covering.I didn't make a major point of it because it happened, really, in two days.It happened after publication of the retail sales figures last week and it happened yesterday; but it was sufficient to cut in half the drop in the dollar that we had recorded for the whole intermeeting period.The market is extremely thin.We ourselves had some correspondent business to sell about $100 million yesterday and we found it very difficult to do that.The reluctance of people to take positions is quite high, so that it doesn't take a very large force to move the prices by a considerable margin.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': ""Further discussion?Thank you, Gretchen.Peter Sternlight is still working on the gathering of information with regard to the situation involving Drysdale Government Securities and its affiliates, and creditor banks and brokerage houses in New York.Why don't we move to Jim Kichline, who is here, and others for the report on the economic situation.Jim.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.]'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Thank you, Jim.Ed.'}]",no,,,,
786,790,19820701_340_1,VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.,"""If we started with $300 million borrowing, that would be a very sudden move, not a gradual one.""","If we started with $300 million borrowing, that would be a very sudden move, not a gradual one.","[{'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""It's not an intolerable period of time to let policy run fairly freely. And if we're wrong, we can reverse ourselves at that point. But at least we ought to experiment to see if we can bring ourselves out of this [recession]. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'That would mean a very sudden drop to about 12 percent. '}, {'speaker': 'MS.   TEETERS.', 'text': 'Well, I have no-- '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'If we do get some increase in velocity, we should let it carry through and take the drop in interest rates that I think we need to keep this economy going and to avoid, really, almost a catastrophe.So, I would take the specifications of ""A"" but raise them.I would go at least to 6 percent and perhaps tolerate 6-1/2 percent for M1.I think we need a signal in the market that we have eased or rates won\'t come down and, therefore, I would drop the borrowing.I would take a borrowing level preferably of $300 million, but I could settle for $400 million.And we need to handle it fairly flexibly.It\'s seven weeks until the next meeting.Certainly in seven weeks--and probably later in July--we will have a better reading on where we are.It\'s not an intolerable period of time to let policy run fairly freely.And if we\'re wrong, we can reverse ourselves at that point.But at least we ought to experiment to see if we can bring ourselves out of this [recession].'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'That would mean a very sudden drop to about 12 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'MS.   TEETERS.', 'text': 'Well, I have no--'}]",yes,yes,-5 sentences,,
787,791,19820701_694_1,MR. GRAMLEY.,"""If we were so fortunate as to see interest rates decline also, there would be the usual lag in the downward adjustment of yields on money market mutual funds and hence a tendency for [funds to move] into those from market instruments, which would help keep the M2 numbers up.""","If we were so fortunate as to see interest rates decline also, there would be the usual lag in the downward adjustment of yields on money market mutual funds and hence a tendency for [funds to move] into those from market instruments, which would help keep the M2 numbers up. So, I would prefer 9 percent also.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We have whatever it is implied in the normal course of events; the tolerance sentence would apply to both. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'Okay, all right. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Well, I would prefer 9 percent for M2. M2 has been running strong relative to expectations almost persistently for the last year or more. And, with the tax cut, I certainly think it's likely to run strong in the period to come. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'I was reminding Steve, who compared it to April when we faced that bulge because of the tax payment matters, that we phrased things in a way that we would tolerate a considerable bulge in M1 provided that M2 was approximately within its growth range for the year.So, the figure we pick for M2 may have unusually important consequences.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Well, I'm not prepared to have that kind of proviso.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""He hasn't suggested that.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'The July bulge is a different finesse.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Exactly.He already said--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'The way we want to handle the initial borrowings--'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""And we wouldn't have the M2 caveat this time under Paul's formulation.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""Well, that's what I'm trying to find out.What is the intent on that?""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'He already explained that.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Oh, I wasn't intending a caveat of the sort we had then.We have whatever it is implied in the normal course of events; the tolerance sentence would apply to both.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'Okay, all right.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Well, I would prefer 9 percent for M2.M2 has been running strong relative to expectations almost persistently for the last year or more.And, with the tax cut, I certainly think it's likely to run strong in the period to come.""}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,sentence
788,792,19830209_314_1,MR. AXILROD.,"""A general point I made earlier in the evening, Mr. Chairman, was that whether you look at velocity contemporaneously or lagged, there is a marked change in the behavior of velocity in '82 relative to historical experience.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""Steve, I don't think there's anything incompatible with what we did [in Richmond] and what you did here. You have not used semi-logs on this scale. So, on the vertical scale, an absolute drop there would be comparable to a much smaller drop down here. In the figures that we had looked at back to '54 and '49, the change in velocity lagged one or two quarters was really not that different. So, we were talking about two slightly different things. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Another thing to observe, Mr. Chairman, is shown in chart 5 in the way that we plot the growth rates; they are obviously highly variable for both.The standard deviations are a measure of variability.There is little to choose between the standard contemporaneous and the alternative, which is to use a lag on these.In all cases the alternative is a hair better than the standard, but the difference will not be of any significance.None of this means that velocity isn't going to turn around in '83, lagged, unlagged, or any other way.But it--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""Could I make at least one observation, Mr. Chairman?Steve, I don't think there's anything incompatible with what we did [in Richmond] and what you did here.You have not used semi-logs on this scale.So, on the vertical scale, an absolute drop there would be comparable to a much smaller drop down here.In the figures that we had looked at back to '54 and '49, the change in velocity lagged one or two quarters was really not that different.So, we were talking about two slightly different things.""}]",no,,,,
789,793,19830209_422_1,MR. AXILROD.,"""But it is of interest, Mr. Chairman, that a lot of the slide occurred when interest rates were going up cyclically.""","But it is of interest, Mr. Chairman, that a lot of the slide occurred when interest rates were going up cyclically. And in '71 when they didn't go up cyclically, the increase was 2.9 or something like that on velocity.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'I was trying to explain why ours was high and it was based upon an assumption that it would bounce back, which it may well not do. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'One percent, historically, would not be much of a bounceback. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""No, it's-- ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'No, we assumed about 5 percent. That was really the reason I went into what you thought I was going into prematurely: to justify our high forecast. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Or, we might get more GNP with the same money, higher velocity, and not much interest rate change, if everyone decides to undo their liquidity.That's a possibility.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Yes, but you're saying if your velocity assumption is wrong.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Yes, that's right.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""Steve, if we've made our computations right, an assumed M1 growth fourth quarter-to-fourth quarter of 6 percent implies a 1.4 percent rise in velocity of M1 over that year.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'With their forecast?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""That's right, with their forecast.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Yes, that's right.That's why it would be a slowdown from now on.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""That's the reason I went into that issue awhile ago, Mr. Chairman, and you thought I was premature.I was trying to explain why ours was high and it was based upon an assumption that it would bounce back, which it may well not do.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'One percent, historically, would not be much of a bounceback.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""No, it's--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'No, we assumed about 5 percent.That was really the reason I went into what you thought I was going into prematurely: to justify our high forecast.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,neutral,sentence
790,794,19830209_1001_2,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""but we'd do it with a lower discount rate.""","Well, I think technically in the first sentence or two it could be maintain the reserve restraint but we'd do it with a lower discount rate. We would just go ahead and reduce the discount rate on some bright day. I think that would satisfy Roger's position, as I understand it.","[{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""And I'd maybe not put any language in that suggests that we'll continue this restraint until we see the aggregates growing at some lower rate, because that also would-- ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, yes, I think you're forced to that. Just to be clear: I'm not arguing for or against it at this point. I think you have to put in some language that says we would seek to reduce--or I suppose you could live with this language if the discount rate is reduced, which isn't your decision. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""[Unintelligible] true, but it's-- ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""It seems the only thing that we can control at the moment is interest rates.Our biggest objective, as far as I'm concerned, is to ensure a recovery.And if we're all hung up on waiting for the aggregates to show us some diminution in their growth, then we've given up the only thing we can do to aid the economy.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, that's a clear point of view.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Then the implication, Roger, is that you wouldn't put in numbers.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""I think that's correct.And I'd maybe not put any language in that suggests that we'll continue this restraint until we see the aggregates growing at some lower rate, because that also would--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, yes, I think you're forced to that.Just to be clear: I'm not arguing for or against it at this point.I think you have to put in some language that says we would seek to reduce--or I suppose you could live with this language if the discount rate is reduced, which isn't your decision.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""[Unintelligible] true, but it's--""}]",yes,,,,
791,795,19830209_1025_5,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""We can just say that.""","All right. Barring another meeting and reconsideration in the event things change from the way people now see them, it looks like we're not going to tighten on reserves. So, presumably we say that. Now we still have the question: What do we say beyond that, if anything? We can just say that.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, I guess it is the consensus; let's stop talking about that aspect. I understand there may be some opposition to that. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': ""That's why I didn't bring it up. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""Just to make my own point clear, in response to Bill's comments: I agree that that has been the strategic mistake we've made in the past, but I don't agree that we have already overstayed ease. I think we need a little more ease; that's where our judgments differ. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': ""At the risk of embarrassing John, who may want to refute what I'm going to say, he was just showing me some research that he likes, which seems to indicate that the traditional problem the Fed has faced in the past is overstaying ease because we're always talking about what is happening in the economy today when the decisions we're making will impact with a lag--in the summer, the fall, and the end of the year.So, I don't agree with the consensus, but I think you correctly identified it.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Let me make sure I correctly identified it.Let me have a show of hands of all those who as we sit here right now making the best judgment we can--we're not talking about [forever] because if something radically different happens we can always have another meeting--don't want to put in an automatic tightening.Well, I guess it is the consensus; let's stop talking about that aspect.I understand there may be some opposition to that.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': ""That's why I didn't bring it up.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""Just to make my own point clear, in response to Bill's comments: I agree that that has been the strategic mistake we've made in the past, but I don't agree that we have already overstayed ease.I think we need a little more ease; that's where our judgments differ.""}]",yes,yes,utterance,,utterance
792,796,19830329_447_1,MR. CORRIGAN.,"""I won't make the case, but--""","I won't make the case, but--","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': '[Unintelligible.] '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'That would be less than market rates in general. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ZEISEL.', 'text': 'Yes, rates in the market have been moving up. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': ""Either that or I'm in the wrong bank. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, who has a case they want to make for a markedly different business forecast? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': ""It has it by sections of the country.It doesn't look like very hard data but, anyway, it did go up.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': ""You've seen that?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""Yes, I've seen it.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'It has pretty good figures.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': ""Yes, it's up 25 points.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""It's a rather large sample, as a matter of fact.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': ""It's a large sample.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""They're doing it keyed to something like what the money funds pay; that has crept up a bit as market rates have come up.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': ""We're looking at 7-3/4 percent versus 7-1/4 or 7-1/2 percent a couple of weeks ago.But it's not close to 10 percent.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'For the money market accounts?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': 'Money market deposit accounts.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""But it's up a little.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ZEISEL.', 'text': 'The question is--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': '[Unintelligible.]'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'That would be less than market rates in general.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ZEISEL.', 'text': 'Yes, rates in the market have been moving up.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': ""Either that or I'm in the wrong bank.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, who has a case they want to make for a markedly different business forecast?'}]",no,,,,
793,797,19830524_486_3,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""but that's the substantive thing.""","I think that's right. We can explain it differently but that's the substantive thing. [Unintelligible] and in my mind what this is missing is any recognition, if this is what you want to put in there, that if these aggregates came in low we might reverse it, or if business came in less than we were anticipating, we might be inclined to reverse it.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""In the context of reading these things, it reads--whether we aim at something a little tighter than last time or not and can't make it-- ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROBERTS.', 'text': ""Why don't we just say-- ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'The changes have been so modest that-- '}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""Well, where are you going to start our arguing: between increase or existing? Isn't that just-- ""}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Well, what is his first sentence in alternative II?What\'s the verb, ""maintain"" generally or ""increase"" or ""decrease""?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Oh, I\'d suggest ""increase slightly.""We can change itbut I think the operative question, however we explain it, is whether we say ""increase slightly"" or whether somebody else has some other words.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'The alternative is what appears: ""the existing degree of restraint.""'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Yes, that's the argument.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""And if $350 million is what we have, I think that's a little high.The existing degree of restraint is what we have and what we maintain.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'Well, the question is whether ""existing"" means what we decided last time or what we actually have.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""In the context of reading these things, it reads--whether we aim at something a little tighter than last time or not and can't make it--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROBERTS.', 'text': ""Why don't we just say--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'The changes have been so modest that--'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""Well, where are you going to start our arguing: between increase or existing?Isn't that just--""}]",yes,,,,
794,798,19830524_504_2,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""The fact is we haven't got much restraint.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'And then close with ""Lesser restraint would be acceptable...."" Now, that isn\'t completely consistent; it needs a little editing once you tack it all together like that. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, my problem is that I lose sight of just how it--. I understand adding this other sentence; I don't think there's any great problem with that. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'The lesser restraint? '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, I don't quite have that operatively.What are you suggesting?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'After the language in your draft ""for the quarter and within the longer-run ranges,"" why not move up ""and against the background of evidence of some acceleration in the rate of the recovery.""Then make your comment with regard to transactions balances in the anticipatory way that it\'s done in alternative II.And then close with the lesser restraint sentence.That is, we would have: ""The Committee anticipates that Ml would remain above its long-run range,"" as in the alternative II language, ""but that its growth would be substantially reduced in the period immediately ahead.""And then close with ""Lesser restraint would be acceptable....""Now, that isn\'t completely consistent; it needs a little editing once you tack it all together like that.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, my problem is that I lose sight of just how it--.I understand adding this other sentence; I don't think there's any great problem with that.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'The lesser restraint?'}]",no,,,,
795,799,19830713_486_2,MR. WALLICH.,"""And [if] we ignore it, we're losing credibility as well as probably [unintelligible].""","I just think that there is such a thing as Ml and the market watches it. And [if] we ignore it, we're losing credibility as well as probably [unintelligible].","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""I hear people talk about it in the banks and in the markets. I don't see how we have even a pretense of a scientific basis for working with and making projections on the basis of what may be a very unpredictable velocity situation. I don't understand why we would stick our necks out because we can do enough tightening based on the movements of M2, M3, and credit and the real economy without setting out a series of projections that have better than a 50-50 chance of turning out to be wrong again. I don't really understand; I guess many of you, including maybe the staff, must have much more faith that the range of predictability is going to be substantially narrowed. I don't believe that. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""The basic difference, or point of departure, is that I am somewhat--in fact, substantially--surprised that we would stick our necks out with numbers where I, at least, feel that we are not stabilizing along a particular trend.The fact that velocity was not as negative in the last couple of months as it was earlier in the year, and granted all the Ms had negative velocity last year, [does not alter the fact that] the situation is so sensitive to the changing way people hold balances.I hear people talk about it in the banks and in the markets.I don't see how we have even a pretense of a scientific basis for working with and making projections on the basis of what may be a very unpredictable velocity situation.I don't understand why we would stick our necks out because we can do enough tightening based on the movements of M2, M3, and credit and the real economy without setting out a series of projections that have better than a 50-50 chance of turning out to be wrong again.I don't really understand; I guess many of you, including maybe the staff, must have much more faith that the range of predictability is going to be substantially narrowed.I don't believe that.""}]",yes,yes,utterance,,
796,800,19830713_766_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Well, that depends upon what we do here, I guess.""","Well, that depends upon what we do here, I guess. I don't see how we can give that impression without moving a bit here. If we move a little here, we can leave the impression that we may have a little tightening but there's nothing else in the offing other than what we're in the process of doing immediately. That probably won't calm them down. I don't think [the market] is going to be calmed down until something happens like the money supply going down or the economy showing a bad month or something.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""There is only one way to do that. If we in fact move a little, then we say we moved a little and leave the implication that at this point we don't see any reason to move any more. ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""We've already moved. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'All right, we have moved. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Are you prepared to go that far? '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""The logic of that argument, Chuck, that we [ought] to wait a while before we put more pressure on the whole spectrum of short-term interest rates is that we really can't afford to push up the fed funds rate even though it would be in a technically better relationship.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'That could be.An awful lot will be determined by [events in] the next few days--the testimony and so forth.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""I am assuming that the tone of that testimony, to the extent that it's not as completely neutral as it can be, is that it would give more [emphasis] to the question of alertness to the strength of the economy, strength of the aggregates, etc., than it would to any implication that would correct anticipation on the other side.In other words, I don't see any reason to assume that the testimony would tend to take the upward movement and expectations out.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""There is only one way to do that.If we in fact move a little, then we say we moved a little and leave the implication that at this point we don't see any reason to move any more.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""We've already moved.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'All right, we have moved.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Are you prepared to go that far?'}]",yes,yes,utterance,entailment,utterance
797,801,19831115_705_3,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""But 5 to 6 percent is all right with me.""","I don't mind putting in ""7 percent or less,"" as a matter of fact. I'd just put in the ""or less"" to take account of the fact that we've had some [slowing]. But 5 to 6 percent is all right with me.","[{'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'For September-to-December 5 to 6 percent gets you almost up to the top of alternative A. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Or almost down to ""C."" '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Somewhere between ""A"" and ""C."" '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""It's just an indicator. We're not even running on this. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We had 7 percent before?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think if we leave 7 percent, we have to put 7 percent or less.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': '""Or somewhat more.""It\'s 7-1/2 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""It's 5-1/2 percent.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'But we could change it to read October through December.Then we could put 7 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, we could do thatbut it's fine-tuning.I think we can either put in 5 to 6 percent percent or 7 percent or less.Or we can change it to October through December and leave it at 7 percent.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I think I prefer September to December, Paul.We [generally] follow this policy and I'd keep it.And I think 5 to 6 percent sounds like a quite respectful growth rate.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Put 5 to 6 percent?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'For September-to-December 5 to 6 percent gets you almost up to the top of alternative A.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Or almost down to ""C.""'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Somewhere between ""A"" and ""C.""'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""It's just an indicator.We're not even running on this.""}]",yes,no,,,
798,802,19831220_450_4,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""What we're talking about is that this snugging up, if that is the right term, might well come about early in January.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""So, that supports your position. It also supports Lyle's. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""None of it sounds to me like it supports why the inflation rate was 12 to 13 percent and now is 4 to 5 percent, but that's beside the point. We need to make a decision here. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Maybe the conclusion is that you need an erratic enough policy to eventually bring about a recession that brings down the inflation. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ROBERTS.', 'text': ""Well, it creates a different situation than just, say, averaging a year.If you had one [half] at 20 percent and one [half] at 0 and average that out, I don't think it's the same as having a 9 percent year.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""I have some figures here that I think support both positions, depending on the period you take.In the four years before 1979, 7 percent is the least squares rate of growth; since then it's 6.8 percent.But the first part of that latter period--that would be from '79 to about mid-'81--it was 5.1 percent.And since then to the fourth quarter, it is 10.5 percent.So, that supports your position.It also supports Lyle's.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""None of it sounds to me like it supports why the inflation rate was 12 to 13 percent and now is 4 to 5 percent, but that's beside the point.We need to make a decision here.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Maybe the conclusion is that you need an erratic enough policy to eventually bring about a recession that brings down the inflation.'}]",no,,,,
799,803,19840131_524_3,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""And the Senate committee isn't very happy about--""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""No, I am testifying on Tuesday, but we will send the material up by Monday. We'll send it up late on Monday and that's probably the latest we will release it in order to avoid-- ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""We'll release it before you actually present it? ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Just a thought: I might do it on Sunday and everybody would get it together on the weekend. '}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""That's a considerable change in the [Congressional] committee's procedures; usually they want to have it released at the time that the committee meeting is held. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'Yes President Morris No Governor ParteeYes Governor RiceYes President RobertsYesGovernor TeetersYes Governor WallichYes'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""We can have the other [staff] people come in.I don't know what we'll do in the future, but we have a little lapse before announcing [this decision on the long-run ranges] and I think people can know this on a need-to-know basis.I am going to be testifying and we probably will release it either Sunday or Monday.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""You're testifying on Monday?""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'Tuesday.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""No, I am testifying on Tuesday, but we will send the material up by Monday.We'll send it up late on Monday and that's probably the latest we will release it in order to avoid--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""We'll release it before you actually present it?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Just a thought: I might do it on Sunday and everybody would get it together on the weekend.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""That's a considerable change in the [Congressional] committee's procedures; usually they want to have it released at the time that the committee meeting is held.""}]",no,,,,
800,804,19840327_5_2,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""We have two more, I think.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'Staff Director and Secretary, Stephen Axilrod Assistant Secretary, Normand Bernard Deputy Assistant Secretary, Nancy Steele General Counsel, Michael Bradfield Deputy General Counsel, James Oltman Economist, James Kichline Economist (International), Edwin Truman. Associate Economists from the Board: Donald Kohn; David Lindsey; '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Those are the two additions, I think. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'Michael Prell; Charles Siegman; and Joseph Zeisel. Associate Economists from the Reserve Banks: Joseph Burns; John M. Davis; Richard Davis; Richard Lang; and Gary Stern. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Without objection, Mr. Solomon will be elected.We have a list of [proposed] officers, which is virtually identical with that of last year, with a couple of additions from the Board's staff.Do you want to read the list, Mr. Bernard?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'Okay.Staff Director and Secretary, Stephen Axilrod Assistant Secretary, Normand Bernard Deputy Assistant Secretary, Nancy Steele General Counsel, Michael Bradfield Deputy General Counsel, James Oltman Economist, James Kichline Economist (International), Edwin Truman.Associate Economists from the Board: Donald Kohn; David Lindsey;'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Those are the two additions, I think.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'Michael Prell; Charles Siegman; and Joseph Zeisel.Associate Economists from the Reserve Banks: Joseph Burns; John M. Davis; Richard Davis; Richard Lang; and Gary Stern.'}]",no,,,,
801,805,19840327_561_2,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""But I will accept any comments anyone wants to make here as to how one manages one's affairs in the interim.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""In other words, the latter approach would involve adjusting the borrowing level in some measure to moderate the increase, if I understand [that regime]. If we go with the post-1979 regime then we're going to get a one-for-one result--a half point discount rate increase produces a half point rise in the federal funds rate. If we use the post-1982 practice, we moderate it by adjusting the borrowing level. I think Steve appropriately raised this issue of whether it will be incorporated in some measure in the directive. But some expression from the Desk or the Chairman as to how they would react to a discount rate increase is important to deciding whether to go with alternative A, B, or C. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""To join Tony, I have the same dilemma with respect to which of the alternatives to select if indeed a discount rate action may be forthcoming.But the more important part as far as I am concerned is how the Desk would react to a discount rate increase and whether it would use the post-1979 operating regime or the post-1982 regime.In other words, the latter approach would involve adjusting the borrowing level in some measure to moderate the increase, if I understand [that regime].If we go with the post-1979 regime then we're going to get a one-for-one result--a half point discount rate increase produces a half point rise in the federal funds rate.If we use the post-1982 practice, we moderate it by adjusting the borrowing level.I think Steve appropriately raised this issue of whether it will be incorporated in some measure in the directive.But some expression from the Desk or the Chairman as to how they would react to a discount rate increase is important to deciding whether to go with alternative A, B, or C.""}]",no,,,,
802,806,19840327_835_3,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""But could I at least assume by my very modest statement that if by some development the borrowing turned out to be quite consistent with a 9-3/4 percent federal funds rate, that we haven't got enough borrowing?""","That is an entirely different question. I don't want to disagree. But could I at least assume by my very modest statement that if by some development the borrowing turned out to be quite consistent with a 9-3/4 percent federal funds rate, that we haven't got enough borrowing?","[{'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': ""But isn't there some difference of view here as to how much tighter or less accommodative [we should be]? ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I made the minimum statement that I don't think anybody wants to misspecify here in the sense that it gives the market some notion that, in the newspaper parlance, there is an easing of policy. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'That would be contrary to expectations and very confusing. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Let me just say that whatever [borrowing] number we arrive at here, I think we need some flexibility to manage things so that at the minimum that impression is not created. '}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""On the other hand, with some exceptions, I don't think there's strong sentiment to ratchet the rate rapidly. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I can't quantify this but I think it is fair to say that at the minimum everybody around this table is not talking about giving the market some false sense of easing at this stage and that, whatever this [borrowing] number is, it ought to work out that way.Maybe there will need to be a little flexibility to assure that result.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': ""I think you're right, Chairman.But isn't there some difference of view here as to how much tighter or less accommodative [we should be]?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I made the minimum statement that I don't think anybody wants to misspecify here in the sense that it gives the market some notion that, in the newspaper parlance, there is an easing of policy.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'That would be contrary to expectations and very confusing.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Let me just say that whatever [borrowing] number we arrive at here, I think we need some flexibility to manage things so that at the minimum that impression is not created.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""On the other hand, with some exceptions, I don't think there's strong sentiment to ratchet the rate rapidly.""}]",no,,,,
803,807,19840327_1033_1,VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.,"""If we follow the Chairman's suggestion on the directive as shown on the paper he passed out, we would be encouraging an increased emphasis on weekly volatility.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'And may have interest rate effects itself. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROBERTS.', 'text': ""I think it's a very great leap to say we're going back to volatility. My impression of the market is that it would receive this favorably, Tony. In fact, the market has already discounted an increased emphasis on M1, which it monitors very, very closely, as you know. I think all these arcane issues of the placement of one thing somewhere else are viewed by the market as rather silly. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""We say we're tightening because the economy is growing too fast.I'm not talking substance now; I'm saying that we are walking into--.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I'm very sensitive, Tony, to your concerns about--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, he may have this great concern about the market; I have a very considerable concern that we are walking directly into the trap of our most vociferous critics.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""But there's also going to be a heck of a lot of concern if people think that we are going back to the kind of volatility we had in interest rates, which I think is damaging both substantively and perception-wise.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'And may have interest rate effects itself.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROBERTS.', 'text': ""I think it's a very great leap to say we're going back to volatility.My impression of the market is that it would receive this favorably, Tony.In fact, the market has already discounted an increased emphasis on M1, which it monitors very, very closely, as you know.I think all these arcane issues of the placement of one thing somewhere else are viewed by the market as rather silly.""}]",yes,,,,
804,808,19840717_351_2,MR. CORRIGAN.,"""In my mind, to the extent that nominal GNP grows faster than that, it would increase the likelihood that more of it would be prices and less of it would be real.""","Personally, an 8 percent nominal GNP as a goal--as distinct from a forecast--is very appealing to me because I think the optimum that one could reasonably think about for 1985 is something like 4 percent [real] and 4 percent [on prices]. In my mind, to the extent that nominal GNP grows faster than that, it would increase the likelihood that more of it would be prices and less of it would be real. So, primarily for that reason, if I think about '85 from a policy viewpoint and what we should be shooting for, I come out with around 8 percent nominal. In terms of the targets I am more than a little attracted to Tony's thought, but my initial thought had been 4 to 7 percent for M1. But as I said, Tony's point has some merit. Personally, I would go with 4 to 7 percent, 5-1/2 to 8-1/2 percent, leave M3 where it is, and use 8 to 10-1/2 percent on credit. The bottom of the credit range doesn't matter at all, but I do think that shaving a half point off the top of that has some value. As I've said before, I am really troubled by this explosion of credit that we are seeing. That consumer credit number yesterday is another indication of this. Gosh--a 30 percent annual rate of increase in consumer credit! That's where I would be.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That's based on your economic forecast? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'On 8 percent nominal GNP growth. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'What did you say for Ml? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""We've assumed 5-3/4 percent as a point estimate; 5-1/2 to 6 percent seems to me the area-- ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""But that's with only an 8 percent nominal GNP, which I remind you is lower than everybody's forecast except the staff's. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'It depends on the model one is predicting from.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""But wouldn't you say that M3 at any rate has a lower velocity than M2?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""If my memory's right, historically, the growth of M3 runs a little higher than that of M2 so its velocity growth would run a little lower, and that has been our very recent experience.It might be worth giving our point estimates for 1985, Mr. Chairman: On an assumption of M1 growth on the order of 5-1/2 to 6 percent, we would have M2 growth around 7 to 7-1/2 percent, M3 growth on the order of 8 percent, and debt [growth] declining to around 10 percent for 1985.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That's based on your economic forecast?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'On 8 percent nominal GNP growth.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'What did you say for Ml?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""We've assumed 5-3/4 percent as a point estimate; 5-1/2 to 6 percent seems to me the area--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""But that's with only an 8 percent nominal GNP, which I remind you is lower than everybody's forecast except the staff's.""}]",yes,yes,utterance,,
805,809,19841002_244_3,MS. SEGER.,"""Also, as I mentioned earlier, the economy is definitely slowing.""","I'm leaning toward the A alternative, with my first reason being the performance of the monetary aggregates in the third quarter. When I look at what the various alternatives are expected to produce in the way of monetary growth in the fourth quarter and for the 12 months in 1984, it looks as if even with alternative A the results would be within the longer-run targets with the exception of M3, which would be just outside by a very small amount. Also, as I mentioned earlier, the economy is definitely slowing. I don't believe we are heading straight for a recession but I think there has been a significant slowing. I happen to agree that it's going to continue to be on the moderate side of the spectrum and that would suggest that some easing, as in alternative A, is appropriate. To repeat what a number of people have mentioned, the strong dollar is a consideration here and I hope that we can do something to maybe at least stop its strong advance. Finally, I repeat my continuing concern about the thrifts and the health of the financial system in general. When I look at where the fed funds rate would likely go based on alternative A, as I read the statement here, it looks as if it would go somewhere between 10-1/4 and 10-1/2 percent; and I don't see that as a precipitous drop in interest rates. Maybe it's my bias, having seen a lot of volatility in interest rates, but from where the fed funds rate is now I would say that's on the modest side. Also, I am thinking of the signals that we sent to money market participants this summer when many of them assumed that the Fed had in fact tightened. I don't remember sitting here and voting for tightening. [That was] the conclusion that many of them drew from asymmetrical language. Consequently, I think we got an upward movement in the fed funds rate that in fact exceeded what we were talking about here at the time--at least what I thought we were hoping for. Having said all that, I would prefer to go with some easing and in general what is shown here in alternative A.","[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'I recognize that doing this in the public record might have adverse repercussions. For instance, it might affect interest rate expectations adversely. So, perhaps we could have an understanding that we would have a telephone conference. As for symmetry, I would prefer to stay symmetrical. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Miss Seger. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'I do have an open mind as to what kind of contingent language, symmetrical or otherwise, might be in the directive that would permit some further reduction in the borrowing level if the economy and so forth warranted it.But I would be very much on the side of a gingerly response rather than any very aggressive probing.I would draw that distinction.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Wallich.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""Well, I would go with Alternative B.I'm puzzled by the behavior of the aggregates.There has been more than the usual variation in very short-run velocity.I know that short-run velocity doesn't mean anything, but it is puzzling to observe the ups and downs over the first half.So, the specifications seem all right to me and borrowing of $750 million seems all right to me.On the funds rate, I would like to put a lower limit on it.I recognize that doing this in the public record might have adverse repercussions.For instance, it might affect interest rate expectations adversely.So, perhaps we could have an understanding that we would have a telephone conference.As for symmetry, I would prefer to stay symmetrical.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Miss Seger.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
806,810,19841002_329_5,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Then, we'd put in the sentence with basically the alternative B""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'But just how it reflects that is-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Well, as I suggested, we could just change the ""might"" and ""would."" '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Yes, I know. We could do that. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Or we could change the order of the two parts of the sentence. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I don't disagree with that, but there was very little support for intervention without monetary policy action on the part of the United States.Well, I think we are in an asymmetrical position; that's where my gut tells me we are.[The issue is] whether or not we put it down in the directive.I would.If the economy suddenly rebounded and the money supply began running significantly higher than alternative B, I would question what we do, particularly in the context of the dollar not strengthening further.I can imagine circumstances in which one might want to tighten, but I'd be pretty hard pressed to imagine what those circumstances would be in the next five weeks.It does not strain my credulity at all to think that we might want to go at least modestly in the other direction in the next five weeks.And I would think that the directive ought to reflect that.But just how it reflects that is--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Well, as I suggested, we could just change the ""might"" and ""would.""'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Yes, I know.We could do that.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Or we could change the order of the two parts of the sentence.'}]",no,,,,
807,811,19850710_73_3,MR. BOEHNE.,"""I can visualize something slower than this; I can even visualize a recession over this time horizon.""","I would like to pick up on the uncertainty theme that Governor Martin raised. I think there is uncertainty here; but as I look through the presentation and think about the various sectors, I can visualize this forecast materializing. I can visualize something slower than this; I can even visualize a recession over this time horizon. But I find it very difficult to visualize sufficiently more rapid growth than is in this forecast that would jeopardize the outlook for inflation. As one goes through this, sector by sector, one could make a case for slower consumer growth but it's hard to make a case for booming consumer growth. In the investment sector, I think it's the same kind of outlook and it's the same in the government sector. The foreign sector may be less of a drag, but it is still going to continue to be a major drag. Even if we got somewhat faster growth, it's hard to see that bringing about a significant increase in inflation above this forecast. The major source of inflation in here comes from the foreign side. Someone made the point earlier, with which I agree, that those margins are big and fat in terms of what's being imported into this country. And this is a very lucrative market. So I am much less fearful of that kind of import inflation being as serious as is [suggested] here. The other point I would make is about the tone that I sense out there. My District has been, I think, one of the most upbeat Districts in recent quarters. I think that has been true up and down the Atlantic coast. That area has been more upbeat than other parts of the country. I have sensed a change in that tone. I sensed the beginning of a change the last time we met; but I sense it even more strongly now that there is a definite scaling down of the outlook for the rest of the year and in 1986 by a whole range of businesses. The only strong sector in my District now is real estate and construction, and I think that has a definite time limit. Like every place else, there has been weakness in manufacturing, but it has now spread to retailing and to some of the services. So, if you look at the objective evidence that is here and at the change in the tone--even granted the uncertainty that is present--it seems to me that there is more chance that we are going to end up on the softer side of this forecast than on the too strong side of it.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""But they can't. And I don't think in this projection horizon that that will change very much. So, both capacity utilization and the aggregate unemployment rate seem to me to be at levels that would be exerting some downward pressures on price increases. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'Thank you. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Boehne. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""Basically, it reflects the strains that are being placed upon manufacturing and mining; there firms have been working aggressively to cut costs and we have been seeing declines in employment.Employment is down almost one-quarter million over the last six months in the manufacturing sector.As you know, we have continued to see further growth in service employment.Put together, we have an unemployment rate that has been stuck for virtually the last year at 7-1/4 percent.Now, we think that 7-1/4 percent is high enough to continue to exert some downward influence on price increases and we think that would persist over the projection horizon.I think it is the case that industrial prices are being constrained in part by import competition in many areas where firms are experiencing pressure.If they had the opportunity and felt they could get away with it and not lose market share, they would try to push some price increases through.But they can't.And I don't think in this projection horizon that that will change very much.So, both capacity utilization and the aggregate unemployment rate seem to me to be at levels that would be exerting some downward pressures on price increases.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'Thank you.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Boehne.'}]",yes,no,,,
808,812,19851105_86_1,MR. BLACK.,"""I may be too old for that!""",I may be too old for that!,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'What they must have done in that Citicorp report, which was not clear to me, was to look just at the gross effect. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Yes. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""It was surprisingly large; I wish I could remember that percentage because it shook me. I ought to remember it, but senility has overtaken me and I can't. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'You need a computer! '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""In addition, in the fourth quarter we expect a very sharp decline in business purchases of autos since some of those autos sold in the third quarter were business purchases at cut-rate terms.So the Sierra effect is a little uncertain.In our own thinking we picked a low-end number and used a positive $4 billion annual rate attributable to that, largely offset by autos and to some extent truck sales, which we think will be down.But it is a big impact.If we're wrong--.As I say, the numbers outside [forecasters are using] range from $3 billion to $10 billion annual rate and it depends in part on what you assume is happening elsewhere in the computer industry.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'And also partly offset by declining shipments of others.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""That's right, yes.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'What they must have done in that Citicorp report, which was not clear to me, was to look just at the gross effect.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""It was surprisingly large; I wish I could remember that percentage because it shook me.I ought to remember it, but senility has overtaken me and I can't.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'You need a computer!'}]",no,,,,
809,813,19851105_386_1,MR. BLACK.,"""If you are right, Pres, you have just changed my whole view.""","If you are right, Pres, you have just changed my whole view.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""If I do, I could just plant a question; that's easy. But if I don't, I need some natural occasion to-- ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'If we say it this way, isn\'t there a slight implication that we\'re leading up to putting M1 in the future into a monitoring range or something of that sort? If we go out of our way to say this, aren\'t we saying: ""Next week, folks, we are going to put M1 on a monitoring--."" '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'I would hope so. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'We had some language in this direction six weeks ago; I think the same logic applies today.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""You are right; we had some language in the discussion six weeks ago; we could sharpen that and say something like this in the general discussion as an alternative, if that's desirable.Now, the question that was raised was whether we have to make an announcement of this.I don't mind saying this: Since everybody anticipates it anyway, it looks a little odd to go out of one's way to find the special occasion to say it.I might be testifying later this week.If I do, I could just plant a question; that's easy.But if I don't, I need some natural occasion to--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'If we say it this way, isn\'t there a slight implication that we\'re leading up to putting M1 in the future into a monitoring range or something of that sort?If we go out of our way to say this, aren\'t we saying: ""Next week, folks, we are going to put M1 on a monitoring--.""'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'I would hope so.'}]",yes,yes,-5 sentences,,
810,814,19860212_46_7,MR. KICHLINE.,"""Our best sense is that we will get some of the direct effects""","I think that's right. We have rounded these numbers and you caught the right direction in which things were rounded; actually, on the lower oil price side the effect is about .35 or so and I rounded it up to a half and for 1987 I rounded it down. But the sense really is that the real impacts will take a while to feed through. That's true on the prices too, except that there is a bigger question on prices. The Board's quarterly model that we used here has a much larger impact on prices in 1987 and very little in 1986; we judgmentally adjusted some of these because we think there will be substantial pressure and the direct effects will come along in a major way. So, in effect, we fiddled with the numbers there. Our best sense is that we will get some of the direct effects [in 1986] but that the important feedback effects will filter through on into 1987.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Parry. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""Jim, on chart 21 where you talked about the impact of lower oil prices, it seems to me that the pattern of effects is a little puzzling. Wouldn't one expect, for example, that the impact of lower oil prices on real GNP would be felt more in 1987 than 1986--that it takes time for these oil prices to work their way through in terms of increased income for people to spend and lower costs for corporations to increase their spending? I would say the same thing, but maybe with not quite the same lag, about the deflator. It isn't only the direct effect of lower oil prices on inflation; there are many indirect impacts that probably would show up more in 1987 than in 1986. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""And in that context, we don't think the micro problems will escalate into big macro problems over time.But throughout all of the major sectors, it would be very hard to think that there are not problems for certain groups and individuals or individual firms or countries.I don't know if I have answered the question.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. HORN.', 'text': ""It's a good start.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Parry.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""Jim, on chart 21 where you talked about the impact of lower oil prices, it seems to me that the pattern of effects is a little puzzling.Wouldn't one expect, for example, that the impact of lower oil prices on real GNP would be felt more in 1987 than 1986--that it takes time for these oil prices to work their way through in terms of increased income for people to spend and lower costs for corporations to increase their spending?I would say the same thing, but maybe with not quite the same lag, about the deflator.It isn't only the direct effect of lower oil prices on inflation; there are many indirect impacts that probably would show up more in 1987 than in 1986.""}]",yes,no,,,
811,815,19860212_47_1,MR. PARRY.,"""I like your model forecast.""",I like your model forecast.,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""The Board's quarterly model that we used here has a much larger impact on prices in 1987 and very little in 1986; we judgmentally adjusted some of these because we think there will be substantial pressure and the direct effects will come along in a major way. So, in effect, we fiddled with the numbers there. Our best sense is that we will get some of the direct effects [in 1986] but that the important feedback effects will filter through on into 1987. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""It isn't only the direct effect of lower oil prices on inflation; there are many indirect impacts that probably would show up more in 1987 than in 1986.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""I think that's right.We have rounded these numbers and you caught the right direction in which things were rounded; actually, on the lower oil price side the effect is about .35 or so and I rounded it up to a half and for 1987 I rounded it down.But the sense really is that the real impacts will take a while to feed through.That's true on the prices too, except that there is a bigger question on prices.The Board's quarterly model that we used here has a much larger impact on prices in 1987 and very little in 1986; we judgmentally adjusted some of these because we think there will be substantial pressure and the direct effects will come along in a major way.So, in effect, we fiddled with the numbers there.Our best sense is that we will get some of the direct effects[in 1986]but that the important feedback effects will filter through on into 1987.""}]",yes,no,,,
812,816,19860212_105_2,MR. KICHLINE.,"""The difference is a tenth and when push comes to shove, to be consistent with the Administration, at the end of the report we will just add a tenth to whatever anybody gives us.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""When I look at the differences that we have in residential investment, I actually think that I would be more comfortable with the Board staff's forecast; consequently, we might even conclude that our forecast would be even stronger relative to the staff's than I first thought. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Let me just interject for a moment to remind people that you get a chance immediately after this meeting to revise the forecasts [you have submitted]. You all have made some comment, but I don't know when you look at them whether you'll change them or not. What unemployment rate are we talking about here? Are we talking about the civilian or the total? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""So, I accept this forecast; I feel a little uneasy about it because somehow the parts don't add up to the whole, even though I agree with the macro numbers that the staff put out.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Parry.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""Our forecast of real GNP is really quite similar to that of the Board staff's; it's just a couple of tenths higher.There are significant differences in the composition, however.When I look at the differences that we have in residential investment, I actually think that I would be more comfortable with the Board staff's forecast; consequently, we might even conclude that our forecast would be even stronger relative to the staff's than I first thought.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Let me just interject for a moment to remind people that you get a chance immediately after this meeting to revise the forecasts [you have submitted].You all have made some comment, but I don't know when you look at them whether you'll change them or not.What unemployment rate are we talking about here?Are we talking about the civilian or the total?""}]",no,,,,
813,817,19860709_189_2,MR. MORRIS.,"""We should say we are going to monitor M1 and we are going to monitor debt, but we are not going to set ranges for either of them.""","I think Manley's idea is the right one. We should say we are going to monitor M1 and we are going to monitor debt, but we are not going to set ranges for either of them. We are not going to set any monitoring ranges.","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': 'Did we? That was my question. Did we set a target at that time? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Sure, we did. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'We could keep the 3 to 8 percent, but [unintelligible] July. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I'm really addressing it to the only persons, at least on this Committee, who said set a new range.When you come up against Mr. Melzer and Mr. Parry, the problem is: How do you know what you want to set?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'If you talk about language for 1986, variant I doesn\'t use the term ""monitoring"" but accomplishes it.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We could change--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""I think it's nice without it.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""We could write down a new range and say this is now a monitoring range.I don't know what we would say.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': ""We could keep the present range and say it's a monitoring range.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, except that the present range is a monitoring range.We are monitoring how far outside the range we are now.It seems a little strange.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': 'We used that term ""monitoring"" in 1982 or 1983, I think it was.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'But we had a range.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': 'Did we?That was my question.Did we set a target at that time?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Sure, we did.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'We could keep the 3 to 8 percent, but [unintelligible] July.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,,
814,818,19861216_264_1,MR. BLACK.,"""I was going to ask Mr. Kohn what he thinks it ought to be.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'You can see that M1A elasticity over a one-year period is roughly comparable to that of M2. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""The last paragraph on page 15 is a good one to read on that. For me, it's easier to interpret that sort of thing than to look at the elasticity tables. It says that a 50 basis point change in market interest rates would alter M1A growth and its velocity by less than 1/4 of a percentage point at an annual rate in the short run and about 1/2 of a percentage point over the year--not perfect, but not bad by the standards of the other possibilities, I think. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Do we have any confidence, assuming that one was going to have a target for M1A, about where it should be? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'I would do this along with--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""It's in large part ex post rationale.Do you have any studies of the elasticity of M1A as opposed to Ml, Mr. Kohn?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""Yes, we do, Mr. Chairman.I think there is some information in the back of the paper--table 3 in Mr. Simpson's memo.You can see that M1A elasticity over a one-year period is roughly comparable to that of M2.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""The last paragraph on page 15 is a good one to read on that.For me, it's easier to interpret that sort of thing than to look at the elasticity tables.It says that a 50 basis point change in market interest rates would alter M1A growth and its velocity by less than 1/4 of a percentage point at an annual rate in the short run and about 1/2 of a percentage point over the year--not perfect, but not bad by the standards of the other possibilities, I think.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Do we have any confidence, assuming that one was going to have a target for M1A, about where it should be?'}]",no,,,,
815,819,19861216_362_2,MR. JOHNSON.,"""One would be associated with stable interest rates and the other would be associated with volatile interest rates.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'If it really has a lot of interest elasticity, I am not sure what the exhumation means. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Well, that may change some over time. I hope-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'The one thing that might be possible, if we want to have any kind of picture at all to illustrate it, would be to have two sets of parallel lines imposed on the same graph instead of having a cone shaped target. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Have three-dimensional graphs? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'But, of course, without a change in interest rates now for four months, where we normally have an interest elasticity problem, it seems we also may have an increase in demand for financial assets that may continue even in a period of stable interest rates.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think that is correct.If you thought that was a great big possibility, unlike those nice little equations Mr. Kohn has, the less you can say about it or the more vaguely you say anything--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""I think Jerry's concern is that if you bury it too deeply then you may not be able to exhume it if you need it.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I don\'t know what ""exhume it if you need it"" means.If it really has a lot of interest elasticity, I am not sure what the exhumation means.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Well, that may change some over time.I hope--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'The one thing that might be possible, if we want to have any kind of picture at all to illustrate it, would be to have two sets of parallel lines imposed on the same graph instead of having a cone shaped target.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Have three-dimensional graphs?'}]",no,,,,
816,820,19870211_293_3,MR. STERN.,"""But our model also has a somewhat stronger picture of the economy than the Greenbook forecast; if you were to plug in something akin to the Greenbook forecast I think you'd get something comfortably within that alternative II range for M2.""","I favor alternative II as well. For what it's worth, our model suggested that M2 growth would probably turn out to be near 8 percent in the year ahead. But our model also has a somewhat stronger picture of the economy than the Greenbook forecast; if you were to plug in something akin to the Greenbook forecast I think you'd get something comfortably within that alternative II range for M2.","[{'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'Six months have gone by and I guess I\'m still not convinced that we can readily say with great confidence that there\'s going to be a major difference in impact on the economy with ""I"" versus ""II"". So that leaves me with the psychological side. I guess if you think that this is the kind of thing that will send a big message to the world out there that we\'re tough rather than weak on inflation--I happen to think they look at a lot of things and not just our ranges--I could reluctantly go with ""II"". But I still think a more honest presentation would be just dealing with round numbers, say, 6 to 9 percent. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Stern. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'I don\'t see a big difference, frankly, between alternatives I, II, and III.We\'re talking about 1/2 of a percentage point between each one.When we discussed this last summer in July, one of the points I made when I opposed changing from the ranges we had for 1986 was that I didn\'t think we had the predictive tools to come up with these fine gradations of economic impact.Six months have gone by and I guess I\'m still not convinced that we can readily say with great confidence that there\'s going to be a major difference in impact on the economy with ""I"" versus ""II"".So that leaves me with the psychological side.I guess if you think that this is the kind of thing that will send a big message to the world out there that we\'re tough rather than weak on inflation--I happen to think they look at a lot of things and not just our ranges--I could reluctantly go with ""II"".But I still think a more honest presentation would be just dealing with round numbers, say, 6 to 9 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Stern.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,ambiguous,
817,821,19870211_767_3,MR. ANGELL.,"""I don't know where we would begin.""",I don't know what handle we have. There isn't any margin requirement handle that would work. I don't know where we would begin.,"[{'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': 'In my mind at least, debt should be more among the categories of things we are monitoring: prices, growth, interest rates, exchange rates. Debt should be in that category rather than as a target variable. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'I am not trying to make it a target variable. I am just concerned that we have had it in there, in effect, as a target variable. And it has been behaving in ways that I think over the long run raise some very difficult questions. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""But, Jerry, it almost seems to me as if we are saying we've got a danger out here, so what should we do?Well, we should tighten.We are afraid people can't pay, and if we tighten then we guarantee they can't pay.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'I did not say we should tighten.I said that, at the very least, we ought to express some sensitivity to this.I think there is a danger in just letting that sit out there in a way that at least subtly carries the implication that we are prepared to sanction or underwrite that kind of behavior indefinitely.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': 'In my mind at least, debt should be more among the categories of things we are monitoring: prices, growth, interest rates, exchange rates.Debt should be in that category rather than as a target variable.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'I am not trying to make it a target variable.I am just concerned that we have had it in there, in effect, as a target variable.And it has been behaving in ways that I think over the long run raise some very difficult questions.'}]",no,,,,
818,822,19870519_137_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""We seem to have disagreements about some facts and analysis.""",,"[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I think there is a tendency for these things to cumulate. So, whether it's in terms of forecasts--and not Wall Street forecasts, but forecasts from any number of sources around the country--or what is in the actual statistics themselves, I come away with the view that either actual or forecast rates of inflation have stepped up by something in the area of a half point and maybe even as much as a point. We are looking now at consumer price increases, excluding food and energy, probably on the up side of 4-1/2 percent. It doesn't take a lot to get to 5 percent; and once you get to 5 percent, I think the argument that it will wash out becomes that much more questionable. So, I think there is a change on the inflation side. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""But even if they were predictable, it seems to me one of two things, or both, may be operative: first, that the amounts of those increases may be larger than most people thought they were going to be; and second--I am by no means saying that--that there isn't any such thing as one-time price increases.I think there is a tendency for these things to cumulate.So, whether it's in terms of forecasts--and not Wall Street forecasts, but forecasts from any number of sources around the country--or what is in the actual statistics themselves, I come away with the view that either actual or forecast rates of inflation have stepped up by something in the area of a half point and maybe even as much as a point.We are looking now at consumer price increases, excluding food and energy, probably on the up side of 4-1/2 percent.It doesn't take a lot to get to 5 percent; and once you get to 5 percent, I think the argument that it will wash out becomes that much more questionable.So, I think there is a change on the inflation side.""}]",no,,,,
819,823,19870707_198_1,MR. KEEHN.,"""I also have a question about the consumption expenditures, which I think look on the low side, particularly for 1988.""","I also have a question about the consumption expenditures, which I think look on the low side, particularly for 1988. Cross-referencing a bit between [components of] the Greenbook forecast, specifically for autos, Mike, you are forecasting an increase in auto sales next year yet durable expenditures seem awfully soft. Maybe I missed it but what is your number for autos?","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""We're expecting a fairly low inflation in fixed investment prices this year. In fact, that computer factor that I mentioned for the second quarter would put equipment price inflation at essentially zero in that period. So it may be that they're not that far off; but looking at nominal spending, the trajectory implied to get their annual total is far steeper than we have in the forecast. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Yes. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Keehn. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""If one became particularly bullish on the basis of recent stories about the computer industry maybe we could be on the brink of another resurgence of high-tech spending.But basically, our thrust is not toward a boldness in the economy such as you've referred to.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""What deflator does the Commerce Department use on their surveys?Don't they use last year's price experience?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Well, I was thinking of the nominal [GNP], but yes, the Commerce Department takes the experience over the most recent four quarters and applies that as the deflator for the current calendar year's spending.That gives us--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""So they're probably overstating?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""We're expecting a fairly low inflation in fixed investment prices this year.In fact, that computer factor that I mentioned for the second quarter would put equipment price inflation at essentially zero in that period.So it may be that they're not that far off; but looking at nominal spending, the trajectory implied to get their annual total is far steeper than we have in the forecast.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Keehn.'}]",yes,no,,,
820,824,19870922_149_6,MR. KEEHN.,"""Employment, for example, is very consistent with the national numbers.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': ""So, we may get some equally bad trade numbers. And, as the Gramm-Rudman fiscal policy debate goes on in the Congress and we don't get anything out of that, I think there's going to be a reaction in the bond market as well. It seems to me that the market is looking for every snippet of bad news that it can find and reacting to that, rather than trying to find something positive in the scenario. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Thank you. President Keehn. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': ""I don't know how to assess this, really; I'm just talking to a few people in the market who are sitting in Atlanta and who have made this comment.They are saying, and I think there may be some validity to it, that there may be some over-reaction, although some other factors are involved.Now, if that's true, I think the policy implication is upon us, because they are going to be reacting perhaps adversely to the trade numbers for August, which probably will not be very good.We have just done some work which would indicate that the seasonal factors that are present in July are probably present in August as well.So, we may get some equally bad trade numbers.And, as the Gramm-Rudman fiscal policy debate goes on in the Congress and we don't get anything out of that, I think there's going to be a reaction in the bond market as well.It seems to me that the market is looking for every snippet of bad news that it can find and reacting to that, rather than trying to find something positive in the scenario.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Thank you.President Keehn.'}]",no,,,,
821,825,19871103_314_1,MR. KELLEY.,"""No, that's an important difference.""","No, that's an important difference.","[{'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': 'I think that\'s a little strong. It\'s certainly getting a lot slower. Maybe we could just drop ""forward indicators pointing to continuing gains."" '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'It is not ""pointing""; it\'s ""pointed"". '}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': 'Yes, ""pointed"". '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': ""And I think I would be remiss if at my first opportunity with all of you I do not mention the monetary aggregates.In that regard, they have been growing slowly relative to trend for six months or more.The staff projection for M2 is 4-1/2 percent, fourth quarter over fourth quarter and that's down from a trend rate for two years of roughly 9 percent.That usually is considered a significant change with some real impacts; however, that's not for this meeting.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I think we can feel the consensus, which surprises me in a sense but--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Could I ask a question about the Corrigan--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""We didn't listen to what Governor Heller--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': 'It\'s a very minuscule point: in the draft directive with the brown [Class I] cover, lines 20-21, we say ""business capital spending was strong in the third quarter and forward indicators pointed to continuing gains.""I think that\'s a little strong.It\'s certainly getting a lot slower.Maybe we could just drop ""forward indicators pointing to continuing gains.""'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'It is not ""pointing""; it\'s ""pointed"".'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': 'Yes, ""pointed"".'}]",yes,no,,,
822,826,19871216_169_1,MR. JOHNSON.,"""I understand what you said, but the only question I have is: If there is a seasonal component to seasonal borrowing of any sort, why have it in there?""","I understand what you said, but the only question I have is: If there is a seasonal component to seasonal borrowing of any sort, why have it in there? If it has no effect whatsoever on the variation, what is the point of having it in there unless it's just more confusing or more complicated at this stage to pull it out?","[{'speaker': 'MS.   SEGER.', 'text': 'Okay. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': ""[No transcript record exists of Mr. Lindsey's remarks, in which he summarized a memorandum (circulated to the FOMC on October 29, 1987) that he co-authored with Mr. Gillum. See appendix for the memorandum and a covering note from Mr. Kohn.] ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Mr. Sternlight, would you like to add anything? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""I don't think so. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': ""I'm not sure he can do that in reverse.So, I guess to some extent I would support Jerry.I'm not sure I caught the gist of his comments correctly, but [unintelligible].""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Any further questions or issues that any one wants to discuss on this question?If not, why don't we move on to item 5 on the agenda, the definition of the borrowing objective and the appropriate discussion.Mr. Lindsey.""}, {'speaker': 'MS.   SEGER.', 'text': 'What was the decision on the first?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'None.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'I just wanted to make sure I understood what we decided.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Well, the point is that there is no need to make a decision on this.Essentially, that will be part of our decision tomorrow.'}, {'speaker': 'MS.   SEGER.', 'text': 'Okay.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': ""[No transcript record exists of Mr. Lindsey's remarks, in which he summarized a memorandum (circulated to the FOMC on October 29, 1987) that he co-authored with Mr. Gillum.See appendix for the memorandum and a covering note from Mr. Kohn.]""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Mr. Sternlight, would you like to add anything?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""I don't think so.""}]",no,,,,
823,827,19871216_361_1,MR. MORRIS.,"""But it was a politically determined structure of reserve requirements.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""It's the currency that's bothering you? ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'Well, it\'s partly the currency, but it\'s also the crazy quilt pattern of the relationship between reserves and other things because of a crazy tiering of reserve requirements, and the reserves on nonpersonal deposits and certain Euro-liabilities, and all the rest. If you had a clean, plain-vanilla kind of structure of reserve requirements that would help a bit, because one problem you get into here that complicates it further--beyond the currency problem--is the so-called multiplier between the reserve component of the base and ""money"". '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Of course--because of the huge differences in the reserve requirements on the various different elements. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""That's what I mean by the crazy quilt structure of reserve requirements. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I think Frank Morris is right in that it's a futile exercise, but I don't think--""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'If you could rationalize--and this is a big if--the whole structure of reserve requirements and all the rest of it, that would make a base measure at least more understandable.In other words,--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""It's the currency that's bothering you?""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'Well, it\'s partly the currency, but it\'s also the crazy quilt pattern of the relationship between reserves and other things because of a crazy tiering of reserve requirements, and the reserves on nonpersonal deposits and certain Euro-liabilities, and all the rest.If you had a clean, plain-vanilla kind of structure of reserve requirements that would help a bit, because one problem you get into here that complicates it further--beyond the currency problem--is the so-called multiplier between the reserve component of the base and ""money"".'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Of course--because of the huge differences in the reserve requirements on the various different elements.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""That's what I mean by the crazy quilt structure of reserve requirements.""}]",no,,,,
824,828,19871216_728_3,MR. MORRIS.,"""With regard to operating procedures, I would stay with our current stance of trying to stabilize the funds rate over the next few weeks in the 6-3/4 - 6-7/8 percent area.""","Mr. Chairman, I think you're right that, at least temporarily, we're really locked into a no-change policy, which I would interpret as alternative ""B"". I would make the directive symmetric. With regard to operating procedures, I would stay with our current stance of trying to stabilize the funds rate over the next few weeks in the 6-3/4 - 6-7/8 percent area. But once the Desk has concluded that the year-end adjustment is over and the relationships appear to be moving back toward normality, I would move to option (4), our pre-October 19 operating procedure, with a borrowing level of $300 million.","[{'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'Having said all that, I would like to go with the modest easing identified as alternative ""A"". '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""What's the borrowing with that? ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""Well, because of the sloppiness of the relationships, I'm not sure what that would be. I guess I would just concentrate on a fed funds rate of somewhere between 6-1/2 and 6-3/4 percent. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Morris. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'I also feel that maybe there\'s more of an inventory problem out there than we have yet identified.And I\'m impressed with the fact that the inflation numbers look far better than any of us thought they would if we go back to our discussions in the spring or even in the summer.I think inflation psychology has simmered down.The Dick Hoey survey, which I didn\'t believe then and probably shouldn\'t now, nevertheless, for those who follow it, does show some cut in the inflationary expectations going forward.So, I think that\'s good.I\'m not a monetaristbut I am paying close attention to what\'s happening to the reserves and the monetary aggregates; and I think that is something to be slightly concerned about.Having said all that, I would like to go with the modest easing identified as alternative ""A"".'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""What's the borrowing with that?""}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""Well, because of the sloppiness of the relationships, I'm not sure what that would be.I guess I would just concentrate on a fed funds rate of somewhere between 6-1/2 and 6-3/4 percent.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Morris.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,utterance
825,829,19871216_730_8,MR. JOHNSON.,"""I have no real borrowing number because I don't see how we can decide on that.""","I would choose alternative ""A"", I think, if I weren't somewhat concerned about the potential effect on the exchange rate and the fragility of the financial markets right now. I still lean that way, but I guess I would be happy with something like alternative ""B"", with asymmetric language toward ease if events unfold in support of that. Like Frank Morris, I would prefer current operating procedures in terms of emphasizing the funds rate. So, I'd support alternative (1) until we see a stable relationship develop. Once we see that, I'm for going back to our old procedures. In other words, I'd stay with (1) and, when we are sure that we are back to a traditional relationship, go to (4). So, I'm at alternative ""B"", with the 6-3/4 - 6-7/8 percent range on the funds rate, and asymmetric language. I have no real borrowing number because I don't see how we can decide on that.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I think you\'re right that, at least temporarily, we\'re really locked into a no-change policy, which I would interpret as alternative ""B"". I would make the directive symmetric. With regard to operating procedures, I would stay with our current stance of trying to stabilize the funds rate over the next few weeks in the 6-3/4 - 6-7/8 percent area. But once the Desk has concluded that the year-end adjustment is over and the relationships appear to be moving back toward normality, I would move to option (4), our pre-October 19 operating procedure, with a borrowing level of $300 million. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Johnson. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'Having said all that, I would like to go with the modest easing identified as alternative ""A"".'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""What's the borrowing with that?""}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""Well, because of the sloppiness of the relationships, I'm not sure what that would be.I guess I would just concentrate on a fed funds rate of somewhere between 6-1/2 and 6-3/4 percent.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Morris.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I think you\'re right that, at least temporarily, we\'re really locked into a no-change policy, which I would interpret as alternative ""B"".I would make the directive symmetric.With regard to operating procedures, I would stay with our current stance of trying to stabilize the funds rate over the next few weeks in the 6-3/4 - 6-7/8 percent area.But once the Desk has concluded that the year-end adjustment is over and the relationships appear to be moving back toward normality, I would move to option (4), our pre-October 19 operating procedure, with a borrowing level of $300 million.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Johnson.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,utterance
826,830,19880630_342_2,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""What Jerry is recommending is that we are actually stating the targets--specifically, alternative III--and instead of having some language around it about uncertainty and how the targets may be changed, that we stipulate that henceforth, starting in July 1989, we would assume that the then-current ranges would be automatically extended into the subsequent year but be subject to review in February.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""What we have done, in effect, while adhering to the requirements of the statute, is basically establish the notion that setting the 1989 ranges is clearly a problem in July 1988, and the fact that it turned out to be a problem in June or July of 1988 isn't that much of a surprise. That gives us, I think, a reasonable basis to change, which could be captured if we were to be very vague in the report and in my testimony, but I gather that really is inappropriate, given the Humphrey-Hawkins statute language. Jerry's notion, within the statutory language, creates the type of conditionality which I think that Wayne and Don and a few others have indicated. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I have two problems with that. One is that you would be going into next year without having set any long-run targets. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""The advantage of that occurs in the event that we are in a position next February, for example, where the types of occurrences that have been expressed here do evolve and we are required to change.What we have done, in effect, while adhering to the requirements of the statute, is basically establish the notion that setting the 1989 ranges is clearly a problem in July 1988, and the fact that it turned out to be a problem in June or July of 1988 isn't that much of a surprise.That gives us, I think, a reasonable basis to change, which could be captured if we were to be very vague in the report and in my testimony, but I gather that really is inappropriate, given the Humphrey-Hawkins statute language.Jerry's notion, within the statutory language, creates the type of conditionality which I think that Wayne and Don and a few others have indicated.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I have two problems with that.One is that you would be going into next year without having set any long-run targets.'}]",no,,,,
827,831,19890208_248_2,MR. BLACK.,"""But I was just thinking about the correct thing to do [according to the Act], not what Congress wanted [in July].""","Yes, I know. But I was just thinking about the correct thing to do [according to the Act], not what Congress wanted [in July].","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'I thought maybe you would since it says money and credit. If you had one of each I think you could meet the definition as such. I support it even-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""Except last July they wanted us to add one. They didn't want us to subtract one last year. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""It's easier than the staff forecast but it does not keep nominal interest rates unchanged from current levels over the near term, although the movements in rates aren't very large.There still would be some upward movement in rates over the year, but not much.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'Thank you.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Black.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'I was just going to indicate my support for what Governor Angell was saying.But I\'m wondering if the Humphrey-Hawkins wording precludes our focusing on one aggregate since it says ""provide for the rate of increase or diminution in aggregates"" or something like that.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'It says money and credit aggregates.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Aggregates.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""You probably have to have a credit measure of some sort unless you could persuade them that it was built into this.It's in the text.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""I guess, then, that you wouldn't have to have M3.I thought maybe you would since it says money and credit.If you had one of each I think you could meet the definition as such.I support it even--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""Except last July they wanted us to add one.They didn't want us to subtract one last year.""}]",yes,,,,
828,832,19890516_140_4,MR. PRELL.,"""And we end up with a lower unemployment rate and eliminate most of that slack that would otherwise emerge.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'In terms of an analytic exercise, what would it be costing us in terms of progress with regard to inflation and, for that matter, with regard to growth as well? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""With our baseline Greenbook forecast--extending it informally at this point into 1991 and assuming that growth isn't so rapid as to move the unemployment rate back down in that year but that it will stay in the 6 percent or so neighborhood--our expectation would be that in that environment we'd see a fractional decline in inflation in 1991. But the trend would be turning discernibly downward. Using our quarterly model and not doing a particularly elaborate exercise but leveling out rates--or keeping the federal funds rate about where it is now--the result is that, in essence, we eliminate that downturn in inflation in 1991. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'In 1991? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""In the Greenbook the comment was made that aggregate demand will still have to moderate further to relieve pressures and reverse the current upturn in inflation.And as you indicated, in the Greenbook forecast you've assumed additional restraint.What would be the impact of not implementing that restraint?In terms of an analytic exercise, what would it be costing us in terms of progress with regard to inflation and, for that matter, with regard to growth as well?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""With our baseline Greenbook forecast--extending it informally at this point into 1991 and assuming that growth isn't so rapid as to move the unemployment rate back down in that year but that it will stay in the 6 percent or so neighborhood--our expectation would be that in that environment we'd see a fractional decline in inflation in 1991.But the trend would be turning discernibly downward.Using our quarterly model and not doing a particularly elaborate exercise but leveling out rates--or keeping the federal funds rate about where it is now--the result is that, in essence, we eliminate that downturn in inflation in 1991.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'In 1991?'}]",no,,,,
829,833,19891219_58_1,MR. PRELL.,"""Let me just say, and Larry referred to this, that we have had underway a comprehensive examination of this issue; had it not been for the overload we reached when you requested this briefing, we would have had it done by now.""","Let me just say, and Larry referred to this, that we have had underway a comprehensive examination of this issue; had it not been for the overload we reached when you requested this briefing, we would have had it done by now. It will be available before very long. And it will explore all of these specifics as well as amplify what already has been indicated about the various tests that we did to see whether there were structure changes.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'The basic question is: Is there any relationship between the slack in the economy and wage and price [behavior]? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The answer is unequivocally ""yes"" on the basis of that, which is important-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Now, obviously, we're making our decisions as we go along. Some notion of how much effect we're going to get for various-- ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I grant you: Knowing the sign is very important. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""My problem with out-of-sample projections is that an out-of-sample projection from a model which is awful never gets published.People go back and re-estimate the structure.And I just want to make sure we know that what we're dealing with here are endeavors that fit the system; I don't know to what extent the structure will change in here.The only reason I raise the issue is that I get a little concerned about the the size of some of these numbers, as though we know them with some degree of [precision].""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Sure.We [don't] make any strong claim for precision here.The basic question is: Is there any relationship between the slack in the economy and wage and price [behavior]?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The answer is unequivocally ""yes"" on the basis of that, which is important--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Now, obviously, we're making our decisions as we go along.Some notion of how much effect we're going to get for various--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I grant you: Knowing the sign is very important.'}]",yes,no,,,
830,834,19900207_205_9,MR. HOSKINS.,"""and then we'll move our target ranges down to match it.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': ""But I do think the statement that Gary Stern made is an appropriate one, at least the way I interpreted it. You may have to clarify this because I interpreted what you were saying as something different than Dick Syron said, and that is that you're not comfortable with the progress in this scenario--that you want lower inflation and we have not made any movement toward lower inflation. MR. [STERN(?)] We don't have a difference in interpretation. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': ""They are trying to be reasonable because we're all reasonable people around the table.But as the Chairman has indicated, probably none of these outcomes is what we're going to achieve.I might suggest that we be unreasonable once in a while and look at what could happen and take a tighter policy to get to where we say we're going to go, or we shouldn't be saying it's where we're going to go.And I don't mean zero inflation.There are many people who don't want to be nailed to that crossand I understand that.But I do think the statement that Gary Stern made is an appropriate one, at least the way I interpreted it.You may have to clarify this because I interpreted what you were saying as something different than Dick Syron said, and that is that you're not comfortable with the progress in this scenario--that you want lower inflation and we have not made any movement toward lower inflation.MR.[STERN(?)]We don't have a difference in interpretation.""}]",no,,,,
831,835,19900207_277_2,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""and then we'll put on the table a rule in which this Committee can make that judgment as to how we record this.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""Well, I just wonder if we're getting carried away here with this procedure. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Yes, we are. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'My interpretation, Mr. Chairman, of what we did is that we took a straw vote and instead of doing it by raising hands we used our voices. And I view those two as largely equivalent. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'I agree with him. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Remember, we are in fact recording and voting on the total.In other words, we are reflecting our views overall.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""Yes, I know.I'm just saying it's a matter of procedure.Roll-call votes are ordinarily recorded.I think it would be well for us not to have roll-call votes on these kinds of--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Sometimes it is easier just to find out quickly what the view is rather than segregate voting from nonvoting members and worry about who is for what.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""Well, what's Virgil's view on this?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MATTINGLY.', 'text': 'Well, it seems to me that if the Committee has taken a vote that that should be recorded in the minutes.You can vote to rescind that vote.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""That wouldn't be good.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""Well, I just wonder if we're getting carried away here with this procedure.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Yes, we are.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'My interpretation, Mr. Chairman, of what we did is that we took a straw vote and instead of doing it by raising hands we used our voices.And I view those two as largely equivalent.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'I agree with him.'}]",no,,,,
832,836,19900327_664_1,MR. ANGELL.,"""Now we're claiming that is an open market operation, as I understand it.""","Now we're claiming that is an open market operation, as I understand it. Is that correct?","[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""Well, it's on our balance sheets. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': ""It's on our balance sheet as foreign currency. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'Right. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'Well, in answering that question on the $25 billion did you presume that it jumped to $15 billion as well or is that--? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""It doesn't matter which way it's done the way we do it. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': ""At this point we're asking for counsel and advice.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""If we have a reasonable chance, it's going to be on the Exchange Stabilization Fund in the immediate future.If we're going to ask about it, we better ask them now.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""No, it's quite possible that we will have agreed on raising these limits and that this may be close to the peak.I just don't rule that out; that is a possibility.And I'd feel more comfortable up on the Hill if we were up against some real problems with respect to foreign currency and they asked how this was happening rather than raise a contingent type of thing.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'How are warehoused currencies treated?Is that a Treasury obligation or is it a foreign currency?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""Well, it's on our balance sheets.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': ""It's on our balance sheet as foreign currency.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'Right.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'Well, in answering that question on the $25 billion did you presume that it jumped to $15 billion as well or is that--?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""It doesn't matter which way it's done the way we do it.""}]",no,,,,
833,837,19900515_118_13,MR. KELLEY.,"""That's clearly slow; it could reaccelerate.""","Well, Mr. Chairman, when Mike finished his presentation a little while ago he made the remark that there are a lot of jokers still in the deck to be turned over. I certainly agree with that. But when you're playing a hand of cards there are those things that you know and those things that remain to be seen. If we look at the things that we know, they don't look that bad. Obviously, as the cards turn over, things could change a lot. But we know, looking at interest rates, that we lowered the federal funds rate in December and interest rates have been up ever since then. We have had some tightening done for us by the market. Along with that, the aggregates have now slowed down a lot. I don't want to prejudge or put words in Don's mouth--he hasn't made his presentation yet--but I suspect he thinks they're likely to speed back up. But if they keep doing what they're doing now, then we're going to have a pretty slow rate of growth in the aggregates in 1990. Looking at the gross national product, the best guess is that its growth is now running around 2 percent and the two preceding quarters before that were 1.1 percent and 2.1 percent. That's clearly slow; it could reaccelerate. There has been talk around this table that at a 2 percent growth rate we could make slow progress, but nevertheless progress, on inflation. If you look at inflation as measured by the CPI, we had an appalling first quarter but the two quarters before that were both under 4 percent; and I think the increase is probably slowing down substantially from that bad first quarter now. John talked about the credit crunch. I think everybody would agree that there's something going on out there and we don't know what effect it's liable to have. Nevertheless, there is some constraint and it could be substantial. So, the things that we know, taken all-in-all, suggest that the state of the world is not terribly unsatisfactory. I think our policy pretty much has done what we desired it to do; it's too early to say that it has been ineffective in making some progress on the core rate of inflation. Core inflation could certainly change on the up side and, if it does, we undoubtedly will have to react. But I think that's far from sure. As a consequence, for now ""steady-as-you-go"" makes sense to me.","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': ""But I think we have to gear our monetary policy to the objective that we can achieve. I agree with Dick Syron that credibility is important, and I'm not sure we're maintaining it. I'm not unduly pessimistic about inflation, but we do have an objective of bringing it down and not much seems to be happening. I might quibble on the cost of bringing it down, though. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': ""They did post price increases a month ago of 4 to 7 percent, and they had no problem making that stick.In terms of the national outlook, I want to thank Mike again for making, I think, a real attempt to show us what we need to do if we want to tackle the inflation issue.Most of the risks in the forecast, it seems to me, are weighted toward having a little more inflation or perhaps having it stay the same.I understand that there are always going to be risks of fragility in financial markets; we've talked about that now for six months.And there is always a potential budget deficit deal.But I think we have to gear our monetary policy to the objective that we can achieve.I agree with Dick Syron that credibility is important, and I'm not sure we're maintaining it.I'm not unduly pessimistic about inflation, but we do have an objective of bringing it down and not much seems to be happening.I might quibble on the cost of bringing it down, though.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
834,838,19900703_233_3,VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.,"""So, it's not just a kind of accounting change.""","Let me make a general comment first, and that is that I cannot quite shake the feeling that there may be something going on here that's a little more real. Even all the discussion about the RTC represents something very real; and what it represents is that in the prior period there was a heck of a lot of bad debt created in the financial system. So, it's not just a kind of accounting change. What I keep toying with in my mind is that there is perhaps a small possibility that we are going through a phase here where this retrenchment of the financial system, as symbolized by the RTC and the slow growth of bank credit and the slowdown of overall debt, is something quite real and something that need not even be transitory. If you look at the great bulk of experience over recent years, we have had this very substantial disconnection, for example, between the growth of debt in the economy and the growth of GNP. And it turns out that a lot of that disconnection reflects the fact that a lot of that debt was bad debt. It's now showing up as RTC and bank write-offs and junk bond write-offs, etc. So, there may be something here that goes beyond the so-called transitory factors. I tend to take a rather eclectic view of all these Ms, but I am struck that even Mr. Kohn can't explain, no matter how hard he tries, a sizable part of the shortfall in M2 in the second quarter. So, again, I'm not quite sure that we fully grasp, or at least that I fully grasp, all that's going on here in these relationships. For that reason I think we do have to be a bit more cautious about the interpretations that we put on these things. Now, with that general point in mind, Mr. Chairman, for 1990 I would keep M2 where it is at 3 to 7 percent and keep debt where it is at 5 to 9 percent. For 1991, I'd be thinking in terms of 2-1/2 to 6-1/2 percent for M2 and 4-1/2 to 8-1/2 percent for debt. For M3, I'm quite prepared to let you do whatever you feel most comfortable doing. But even in the framework of letting you do whatever you feel most comfortable doing, it's possible that a compromise--in the interest of cohesion in the Committee--might be to put it at 1 to 5 percent for both years. But I have no strong feeling on that at all; I'm quite prepared to let you explain it because basically you've got to explain it one way or another. Either you have to explain why we changed it or you have to explain why we didn't change it. And I would leave that to you.","[{'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""And for 1991, I also would keep the same ranges for the main reason that we have another crack at these in February. There are a lot of uncertainties about velocity and the economy in general--the RTC activities and a whole lot of other things. Therefore, there's something to be said for hanging in there with the existing ranges and then, with six months' additional information and knowledge, if we're off we can adjust them at the next Humphrey-Hawkins meeting. Thank you. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Vice Chairman. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""And instead of just dismissing this[shortfall] as a technicality because of RTC activities, I think a big part of the credit crunch story is in here.Maybe we ought to look at this and ask ourselves whether we should be satisfied with a 1 percent increase in M3 for 1990.If many people up on the Hill are continuing to get letters from their unhappy constituents, they might be asking that same question or a similar one.So, I would support keeping the same ranges for this year that we established earlier.And for 1991, I also would keep the same ranges for the main reason that we have another crack at these in February.There are a lot of uncertainties about velocity and the economy in general--the RTC activities and a whole lot of other things.Therefore, there's something to be said for hanging in there with the existing ranges and then, with six months' additional information and knowledge, if we're off we can adjust them at the next Humphrey-Hawkins meeting.Thank you.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Vice Chairman.'}]",no,,,,
835,839,19901002_242_5,MR. TRUMAN.,"""We probably would get some adjustment.""","Well, I think you would get a reaction with ""A,"" quite pronounced, if you get it all done at once. With the two-step process the way Don described, you might get a reaction with the second step, depending on what the circumstances were at that time. As Sam said earlier and Don suggested, I think there is something built into the market at this time. Sam, you may want to comment again in light of what has been said. We probably would get some adjustment. In some sense there was an adjustment yesterday, essentially anticipatory. The exchange market came back a little today; I think the adjustment may have been overdone.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""Though we still have this velocity shift going on, it's not as much as we had in the third quarter; we have much less in the fourth quarter in a settling down kind of process. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': 'Ted, can I ask you--this is slightly different than what you assumed--what your view is on the pressure on the dollar under ""A"" and then ""A prime,"" if we part with the assumption that something is done on the budget deficit? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'Which one is which? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': '""A"" is the traditional ""A"". ""A prime"" is ""A minus/B,"" I guess. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': ""I'd like to follow up on Lee's question.In the M2 forecast for the fourth quarter, have you included anything for this flight to liquidity?Or is it based pretty much on the way you think velocity is deviating from--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""We have a little, but slowing down.This is not a war forecast or something like that.We have conditions settling down somewhat, but still we have allowed a little for the flight to liquidity.Though we still have this velocity shift going on, it's not as much as we had in the third quarter; we have much less in the fourth quarter in a settling down kind of process.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': 'Ted, can I ask you--this is slightly different than what you assumed--what your view is on the pressure on the dollar under ""A"" and then ""A prime,"" if we part with the assumption that something is done on the budget deficit?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'Which one is which?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': '""A"" is the traditional ""A"".""A prime"" is ""A minus/B,"" I guess.'}]",yes,yes,,,
836,840,19901218_240_6,MR. MELZER.,"""I think we could establish a 7 percent funds rate by Friday and then just have a technical adjustment [in the discount rate] and use the appropriate language for that.""","In any case, I would like to try to avoid the overshooting not only for that reason but also because I think a volatile monetary policy has other consequences that flow from that. On the discount rate, if it were up to me I would let the 1/4 point show through in open market operations tomorrow and I'd be inclined to cut the discount rate on Friday. And at that point I'd make it very clear that it's simply a technical adjustment to move the discount rate in line with other rates. I think the communication in this other scheme could get a little confusing. I think we could establish a 7 percent funds rate by Friday and then just have a technical adjustment [in the discount rate] and use the appropriate language for that. I'm not concerned about Wayne's concern here. We could be left in the same position if the Board decided not to move the rate on Wednesday and then we would have a situation where, with the authority we are proposing to delegate to the Chairman, we would still have the funds rate coming down close to or possibly below the discount rate. So, I'm not troubled with that. I'd go ahead with the open market operations.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'If P* is any sort of basic inference, we are significantly better positioned than we were then. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""Oh, I understand what position we're in, and that's why-- ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'We have a lot of room to make a mistake in here. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'Yes. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Bob Parry and I are going to be on next year too [as voting members]! '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""I think we have brought the funds rate down faster than market rates, and I presume that that is going to show through to the aggregates.But this is responsive to the concern of the slow growth.I agree with you that we're likely to overdo it.Unfortunately, I don't have the same confidence that we'll undo it.I say that simply because I sat here as recently as 1986 and 1987 as we looked at quarterly growth rates in M2 in excess of 10 percentand I have to tell you there are lot of asymmetric monetarists.That's Lee's phrase, but I think it's very true.There were many people not at all worried about that [M2 growth] at that time.I hope I'm wrong, but I'm not--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'If P* is any sort of basic inference, we are significantly better positioned than we were then.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""Oh, I understand what position we're in, and that's why--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'We have a lot of room to make a mistake in here.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Bob Parry and I are going to be on next year too [as voting members]!'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,utterance
837,841,19910206_177_1,MR. STERNLIGHT.,"""Quite well.""","Quite well. There was strong bidding. I just got a brief report on that and it came out about where we were expecting, at a 6.98 percent average.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""I think the other point was that we can't reduce the reserve requirements--say, take them down to 8 percent and then put them back again and pay interest on the difference between 8 and 12 or 14 percent or something like that. There was some protection, I believe, in the [law]. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': ""If we do see a legislative proposal for interest on required reserves, I'm afraid we'll have a [unintelligible] attached to the bank insurance fund. Peter, you mentioned the three-year auction. How did that go today? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""--clearing balances or supplemental balances in a context in which the Board makes a determination of whether those supplemental balances are needed.I don't think it was just for monetary policy or even for clearing purposes.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'No, I think it was for monetary policy purposes.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""We had our lawyers look at that and their view was that we can't use that escape hatch right now.I think somebody else ought to check it out, but our view is that it can't be used.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""I think the other point was that we can't reduce the reserve requirements--say, take them down to 8 percent and then put them back again and pay interest on the difference between 8 and 12 or 14 percent or something like that.There was some protection, I believe, in the [law].""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': ""If we do see a legislative proposal for interest on required reserves, I'm afraid we'll have a [unintelligible] attached to the bank insurance fund.Peter, you mentioned the three-year auction.How did that go today?""}]",yes,,,,
838,842,19910206_441_3,MS. SEGER.,"""Both auto sales and production in my judgment are going to be a disaster in this quarter and right now I can't think what is going to bring them off the floor in the next quarter.""","I support your view, Mr. Chairman, but I would say that the risk is definitely on the low side if for no other reason than the auto industry situation. As you know, it's responsible for the biggest chunk of the decline in the fourth quarter. Both auto sales and production in my judgment are going to be a disaster in this quarter and right now I can't think what is going to bring them off the floor in the next quarter. That is simply one reason. In addition, there is the confidence factor. I think that is partially related to CNN and the Gulf War but I think there's another big chunk coming just from this nervousness over the financial system. I wish that weren't the case but I think it is. Certainly, a lot of easing has been done. But in order to compensate for the credit crunch, which in my judgment is definitely out there, there will be a need to do still more to offset that. I think it would be good to look at Jerry's idea, too; it strikes me as sort of extraordinary to accommodate a special challenge of this nature, which I haven't seen since the 1930s. So, I would go with [alternative B], asymmetric toward ease.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation for all the reasons that have been articulated here. I would like at an appropriate time, now or later, to suggest a change in the order of the priorities of our considerations in the operational paragraph. I don't know whether you'd like to pursue that now or do it as a separate item. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Let's do it separately. Governor Seger. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""I'm not suggesting that we use it as an operating target.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I know you're not.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""I'm just saying that if it were up to me, in this environment where we're worried about getting the money growth path, I'd hate to be sitting here three months from now with a slope on that line of total reserves that was still totally flat as it has been over the last year.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""That's part of the reason why I made the suggestion about trying to get some reserves out through the discount window in a way in which Peter could do a pretty good job of protecting against--""}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Sterilizing!'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'Protecting against--well, sterilizing them!'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation for all the reasons that have been articulated here.I would like at an appropriate time, now or later, to suggest a change in the order of the priorities of our considerations in the operational paragraph.I don't know whether you'd like to pursue that now or do it as a separate item.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Let's do it separately.Governor Seger.""}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
839,843,19910820_127_4,MR. BLACK.,"""then we can go into these things.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': ""I don't like the list personally because I don't think half of the items should be in there. So, I'd go essentially for Bob Black's and Tom Melzer's suggestion and reduce the list. I guess that's 4.b. on page 3 of Don's memo. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Any further comments? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': 'Sometimes--fortunately not in this group but outside--there can be some confusion about that.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': ""I think we're trying to serve two purposes here.One is to provide information.And the second is procedural: to help us conduct our policy affairs and make sure we're getting things right.Where I come out on the information question is that there's not much informational content because what these five or six factors that we list tell people is that we have multiple objectives.We can say price stability and long-term economic growth until we're blue in the face; but if we list those, we're signaling to the market that those things are important to us and we'll shift them around when we feel like it.I don't like the list personally because I don't think half of the items should be in there.So, I'd go essentially for Bob Black's and Tom Melzer's suggestion and reduce the list.I guess that's 4.b.on page 3 of Don's memo.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Any further comments?'}]",no,,,,
840,844,19910820_198_7,MR. KELLEY.,"""And certainly all of economic history and the thrust of analysis will tell us that a double-dip is unlikely.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': ""But I think it will be most useful to see the early returns out of this episode: the confidence surveys, the new orders for capital goods surveys, the stock market behavior, and the money figures as well. There's certainly a lot of noise in the system now. And even though I do feel that the downside risks have been marginally increased and the potential for larger problems has been increased pretty substantially, I think it's useful to wait until the noise settles down a little and then anything we decide to do might be more clearly heard. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': ""It could be that this event might actually increase the growth of M2 by increasing the demand for liquidity, but I would not be any surer how to interpret that than I am the current improved situation.The big factor is that events are just beginning to unfold and it's very important to assess the shape and pattern of events as they start unfolding very rapidly.I don't think we should wait until we have hard evidence of a faltering economy before we consider another move, given the lags involved.We have to anticipate; it would be nice to get ahead of some of these contractionary forces.But I think it will be most useful to see the early returns out of this episode: the confidence surveys, the new orders for capital goods surveys, the stock market behavior, and the money figures as well.There's certainly a lot of noise in the system now.And even though I do feel that the downside risks have been marginally increased and the potential for larger problems has been increased pretty substantially, I think it's useful to wait until the noise settles down a littleand then anything we decide to do might be more clearly heard.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley.'}]",yes,yes,,,
841,845,19911217_40_8,MR. SYRON.,"""but I'm just curious.""","For the reasons that the Chairman and Bob Parry gave and that Mike Kelley talked about, I support this. It does make it clearer and I like the idea of considering it once a year rather than debating at Committee meetings the exact wording of this from time to time. The only question I have--I'm just curious--is that I'd like to ask Peter how much all the things we put out there are scrutinized. I don't see [this matter] coming up on the screens often. I do see it in newsletters, etc. Given the [directive] publication lags, how big a deal is that? I support doing it but I'm just curious.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I think it's a clear improvement over where we stand. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""I would support it as well. I think it's good to have the distinction between long-run objectives and attention to the shorter-term developments in the economic, financial, and monetary areas in the same basic sentence. And I think it's an improvement over what we had. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Syron. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': 'That is in reference to the old alternative I, which called for continuing that.Also, by watering this down and making it much more generic, it is an attempt to give, at least on an implied basis, some emphasis to the desire possibly to get away from this system altogether.So, Mr. Chairman, my recommendation would be that we adopt this language in alternative number I on page 17 of the Bluebook with the understanding, of course, that this could be brought up and reviewed at any time and probably should at any rate be looked at by the Committee at least once a year.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I think that's pretty reasonable and I would support your point of view on this.I think it's a clear improvement over where we stand.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""I would support it as well.I think it's good to have the distinction between long-run objectives and attention to the shorter-term developments in the economic, financial, and monetary areas in the same basic sentence.And I think it's an improvement over what we had.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Syron.'}]",no,,,,
842,846,19911217_164_2,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""I'm sorry if there was any confusion.""","Yes. I'm sorry if there was any confusion. I'm recommending ""B"" asymmetric.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Oh no, I'm sorry. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LAWARE.', 'text': 'You\'re saying ""B"" asymmetric? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': '""B"" asymmetric. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': 'A hard asymmetric. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""When you invoke the proviso, if you have to, you would go 1/4 point and that's all? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HENDRICKS.', 'text': 'History has shown, it seems to us, that such a policy process can mislead policymakers into thinking they can fine-tune these economic activities.Moreover, it seems to us that such a policy process also leads policymakers to lose sight of the key long-term objective of maintaining price stability.So, our policy prescription, while not a whole lot different from your recommendation, is that the FOMC hold a steady course at least for now until we see the cumulative results of our several actions to cut interest rates over the past year.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Don is a little concerned that maybe what I said wasn't clear.I'm saying that my recommendation is to do nothing now but to have an asymmetric directive.I don't think that has been--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""Yes, Bob Black I think stated it a little differently, but that's the way I heard you.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""I didn't hear it that way.I'm sorry.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Oh no, I'm sorry.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LAWARE.', 'text': 'You\'re saying ""B"" asymmetric?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': '""B"" asymmetric.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': 'A hard asymmetric.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""When you invoke the proviso, if you have to, you would go 1/4 point and that's all?""}]",no,,,,
843,847,19920205_111_8,MR. BLACK.,"""But on the other side of that, I think the substantial further easing in monetary policy we engineered in November-December could easily produce a more rapid recovery than we are expecting here, particularly if a fiscal package is enacted early in the year or relatively early in the year.""","Mr. Chairman, I don't have much to add to this very excellent presentation the staff gave us and the fine coverage in the Greenbook. Our projections really are not significantly different. We do expect a little more real growth and a little greater slowing in the rate of inflation. But the broad profile is pretty much the same, with some pickup in the rate of increase of the recovery in the second quarter--but only to a very moderate rate in comparison with what has happened in past recoveries--and continued deceleration in core inflation, even though we are projecting that the overall CPI will come in a tad higher this year than it did last year. Insofar as the risks of error are concerned, I guess a carefully reasoned analysis would say that they are about equal on both sides. Certainly, there are some downside risks: the heavy overhang of commercial real estate; the corporate restructuring; the balance sheet adjustments that are taking place; the restraint on credit. Also, all these temporary dislocations that have taken place as a result of declining rates of inflation could produce another year of lower-than-expected growth. But on the other side of that, I think the substantial further easing in monetary policy we engineered in November-December could easily produce a more rapid recovery than we are expecting here, particularly if a fiscal package is enacted early in the year or relatively early in the year. For what it's worth, my instinct is that the upside risk is probably a little greater than the downside risk mainly because of the actions that we took in the fourth quarter. We engineered a very significant easing in policy; it has not at this point had a very positive effect upon the economy; the stock market really seems to think [it will] over the next several quarters. Moreover, we're seeing a decided change in the comments that we hear from our contacts around the District. There is not much hard evidence yet that things really have improved, but the outlook for the next six months or so is decidedly better than it has been over the several times we've made contacts; it's quite a shift away from what we heard [unintelligible]. It always seems to me that the pessimism is the greatest right at the bottom of a recession. So, since it looks a little better now than it did a while back, I hope that means that we're beginning to come out of this a little faster than most people seem to think.","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': ""My hunch is, although our forecast and the staff forecast are based on no fiscal change, that we're going to get fiscal stimulus probably above what the President has suggested. And that suggests to me that the GDP forecasts are probably on the low side; if we get that fiscal stimulus, the economy will probably do better. Having said that, I do think our decision today should be based on our assessment of what the situation is going to be ex fiscal policy. Thank you. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Black. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': ""So, in general, while things have softened, the attitudinal situation is considerably better than it was six or eight weeks ago.With respect to the national outlook, we're reasonably close to the Greenbook in terms of the GDP forecast.Although we see a little more strength in the first half of '92 and somewhat less growth as time goes on, the GDP forecasts pretty much converge.Our outlook for inflation is somewhat less optimistic.We may indeed get the good results that the staff is forecasting in the Greenbook, but I think the risk on inflation is on the up side.My hunch is, although our forecast and the staff forecast are based on no fiscal change, that we're going to get fiscal stimulus probably above what the President has suggested.And that suggests to me that the GDP forecasts are probably on the low side; if we get that fiscal stimulus, the economy will probably do better.Having said that, I do think our decision today should be based on our assessment of what the situation is going to be ex fiscal policy.Thank you.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Black.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,
844,848,19920701_266_9,MR. MULLINS.,"""What we lose is that we muddle the signal.""","I would support your proposal. I do think there's a case for cutting [the range] a half point in 1993. It seems to me that it's simply time to do so in the normal rhythm of things. It was not unusual to skip last year. In the summer of '88 the Committee cut the ranges for the following year, skipped '89, cut in '90, and skipped '91. The difficulty is that it's '92 now and in the normal pattern it would be time to move. It would put the market on notice, independent of federal funds rate moves and other policy moves. The difficulty I see--and the reason I would agree with your proposal--is that it's simply difficult to send a clear signal in the current environment with the context of a distorted M2; it's difficult to separate the policy target from the questions of distortions of M2. What we lose is that we muddle the signal. I think there's no way to avoid the suspicion that we're moving the target down in part because M2 is weak. And I think we would have a better signal of long-term policy and our targets after this is better understood. It's unfortunate because we are moving up to a period where we have the capacity for reassessment of that inflation premium that Governor Angell talked about. And I am concerned when I look at what the market expects later this year and next year: They expect rates to go up. By setting the fed funds rates we'll get precious little market information on when to do that. Money hasn't been a reliable signal. So, I am a bit concerned that we'll find ourselves following the market up, lagging, and chasing credibility. And one way to try to get ahead of it is to put the market on notice and send the signal early. I think we'll have a much clearer picture in the months ahead; and maybe we will not have to wait until February because I tend to think that much of this may be transitory. We'll see how the time deposit refugees feel if the stock market gets a little cool here! I do expect the yield curve to flatten in at least two ways. And I think the de-leveraging is running its course. It is true that we have these higher costs of intermediation which have already given the banks all-time record profits in the first quarter. So, they seem not to be suffering too much. Therefore, I think there is a case for cutting the ranges at this time. But the difficulty is that we would lose the signal in this environment, so I would support your proposal.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""We are working hard to reformulate the guidelines to policy [to foster] new understanding when that's possible to do. I'm not sure when it will be possible to do, which is the only other point I would like to make. I think we have to discipline ourselves and probably educate the Congress and the public to the fact that it may take some time before it's possible to do that again. It may be a while before conditions are sufficiently stable for us to have some confidence that we understand where we are and for things to have settled down so we are able to reformulate our basic guiding stars. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Mullins. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': 'It would be a mistake if we were to try to bluff our way through and say that we know more than we know or alternatively, at the other end of the spectrum, if we were to stick our head in the sand and say: ""Never mind, we are still going to fly on the same old instruments.""I don\'t think either of those courses would be credible.The key to credibility and integrity here is to be candid about this situation.We are working hard to reformulate the guidelines to policy [to foster] new understanding when that\'s possible to do.I\'m not sure when it will be possible to do, which is the only other point I would like to make.I think we have to discipline ourselves and probably educate the Congress and the public to the fact that it may take some time before it\'s possible to do that again.It may be a while before conditions are sufficiently stable for us to have some confidence that we understand where we are and for things to have settled down so we are able to reformulate our basic guiding stars.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Mullins.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,,
845,849,19920818_167_3,MR. JORDAN.,"""Peter tried to explain this to me, too, and I simply don't understand it.""","The statutory limit is 8 percent and I don't understand the operating point. Peter tried to explain this to me, too, and I simply don't understand it. But the legal ammunition is that you can go down to 8 percent without seeking new legislative authority.","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'I know this is a Board matter, not an FOMC matter, but in terms of using ammunition: With the projection for seasonal increases in reserves in addition to the continuing trend of reserveable deposits growing very rapidly, would the Board consider using the ammunition it has, i.e. the bullet of lower reserve requirements? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Do we have room right now? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""I think if we lowered them in October we'd have to raise them in February. I would doubt very seriously that we'd have room to get to the next seasonal low point even after the actions we have taken. We could take at look at that this fall, but I'd be skeptical at this point. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""But having said that, if in fact it is turning out that this malevolent Model 2 type of seizure is going on, I suspect we probably would have no choice at that point and would wish to move and hope that if we run out of bullets in the process that at least there's no one left to shoot at.So, that's my addition to a python-in-the-pig!""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Angell.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""That's acceptable to me.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Jerry Jordan.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'I have a question.I know this is a Board matter, not an FOMC matter, but in terms of using ammunition: With the projection for seasonal increases in reserves in addition to the continuing trend of reserveable deposits growing very rapidly, would the Board consider using the ammunition it has, i.e. the bullet of lower reserve requirements?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Do we have room right now?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""I think if we lowered them in October we'd have to raise them in February.I would doubt very seriously that we'd have room to get to the next seasonal low point even after the actions we have taken.We could take at look at that this fall, but I'd be skeptical at this point.""}]",no,,,,
846,850,19921117_70_2,MR. MELZER.,"""The statistics or anecdotal information we have suggest that the Eighth District is growing modestly more rapidly than the rest of the country, but there are no really dramatic changes.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'We have the possibility of collapse in Russia this winter. And we always have the Middle East. So, to [abuse] a phrase, maybe what we\'re seeing is ""deja voodoo,"" in line with Attila the Hun and the witch doctor. We\'ve been here twice before and I would not be overly optimistic since all we\'re seeing, really, is an improvement in attitudes. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Melzer. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'I would say: Don\'t expect anything quickly.So, I\'m more pessimistic about the start of the year.I think what we\'re going to see is a stock market decline, a rise in intermediate-term interest rates, and no fiscal stimulus.I think that\'s going to lead to a sense of disappointment.We\'re going to see the continuing layoffs that people mentioned.GM is on the line.And, Jerry, I would ask the same question about IBM.I notice [its stock price] is now down to 65; the last time I looked it was at 85.We\'re going to see continuing weakness abroad.We have the possibility of collapse in Russia this winter.And we always have the Middle East.So, to [abuse] a phrase, maybe what we\'re seeing is ""deja voodoo,"" in line with Attila the Hun and the witch doctor.We\'ve been here twice before and I would not be overly optimistic since all we\'re seeing, really, is an improvement in attitudes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Melzer.'}]",no,,,,
847,851,19921117_345_2,MR. MCDONOUGH.,"""We let the market assume that we've eased.""","It doesn't in fact come out. We let the market assume that we've eased. I think there would be an additional benefit because sometimes it isn't altogether clear how much we've eased and it takes us a day or two of fiddling around with repos and matched-sales in order to convince the market what exactly was done. To the degree that there's a benefit in not confusing markets, I think we would actually get a plus from this approach.","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'I would do the same thing--the next morning, though. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""So, all you're doing basically is speeding up the announcement process by two or three hours. Right now it comes out at 11:30 a.m. the next day, and you want to do it at 9:00 a.m. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""It's not always clear. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'If the Chairman or the Committee made a decision between meetings to lower the funds rate, we would put out a statement that morning saying the Federal Reserve today eased reserve conditions and as a consequence of this the federal funds rate went down.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': 'What is the benefit from that?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""No, that's the wrong question.The question ought to be: What is the cost?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': 'It has no cost.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""That's the issue.There's a benefit too, Dave.The benefit is that it takes away this perception that it's the Wall Street insiders who benefit from their Fed watching activities to the exclusion of other segments of society.That's the benefit.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'Suppose the Committee decided--it would be a rare, shocking event--to move the funds rate at a meeting.Would we announce it that day or when would that be announced?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'I would do the same thing--the next morning, though.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""So, all you're doing basically is speeding up the announcement process by two or three hours.Right now it comes out at 11:30 a.m.the next day, and you want to do it at 9:00 a.m.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""It's not always clear.""}]",no,,,,
848,852,19921222_126_1,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""We didn't appreciate it.""",We didn't appreciate it.,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""Maybe they will come sooner than we think. They're probably going to be on the up side, but it's too soon to be totally confident of that. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Mullins. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': ""Well, I don't have much to add. I agree with Larry that we've had a great year; we didn't know it. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""Well, one senses that the risks appear to be tilting in the upside direction, but it's probably too soon to be very sure of that; maybe they should be characterized as symmetric.I took very much to mind Tom Melzer's remarks earlier of where we were two meetings ago and what happened immediately thereafter.I think we'd all agree that gives us all plenty of reason to be humble when it comes to making projections.I'm struck by the fact that so many people this morning have said that the tone of things is leading the statistics.That's probably to be expected; on the other hand, it's not to be trusted either.So, we undoubtedly have challenging times ahead and difficult choices out there.Maybe they will come sooner than we think.They're probably going to be on the up side, but it's too soon to be totally confident of that.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Mullins.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': ""Well, I don't have much to add.I agree with Larry that we've had a great year; we didn't know it.""}]",yes,no,,,
849,853,19921222_127_1,MR. MULLINS.,"""We didn't appreciate it.""","We didn't appreciate it. We only learned about it in the last week or two, but we should take the next week off and celebrate. I agree with Governor Angell that we should think about why we had such a good year. It's certainly not money growth; the economy has been growing on velocity increases, whatever that is. And it's certainly not employment growth either; the economy has been growing on productivity increases. So, as best I can figure out, the economy has been running on fumes so far in '92. I don't think the numbers have changed much from what we expected earlier in the year even with the ups and downs. So far growth for the year is only 2.6 percent, which is pretty good; and we probably will do a little better than that. I suppose one of the motivating factors could be the election psychology. One would hope that it would turn out better here than it did in the United Kingdom and other places where they've had that phenomenon. I suppose there is the upside risk that Jerry mentioned of sound budgetary policies at the federal level. I guess I have a lot of confidence that that's not too great a risk. [Laughter] We do seem to be lifting ourselves gradually out of the mire. I see nothing robust even in these latest numbers and no real signs yet that we may be approaching an overly robust upturn. The risk is that, despite the slack the staff talks about, we don't have nearly so much slack as after the last recession when unemployment was 10 percent and capacity utilization was probably 70 percent. In terms of sustainability, I'll feel a lot more comfortable when we do get employment growth; also, some money and credit growth would be nice. We probably have had some marginal tightening from the dollar and from the increase in short- and intermediate-rates as near-term inflationary expectations have fallen. I also think the reduction in long rates could well be reversed very quickly once we see the character of Congress's pent-up demand for spending as this process gets started. To me one of the interesting things we're going to have to face is the coming collapse of M2 growth again. In February, the next time we meet, we could well have had two months of zero M2 growth and once again be back in that debate over what sort of policy we're following at the time we decide on next year's ranges. I would just conclude by saying that we should take the rest of the week off and celebrate a job well accomplished!","[{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""They're probably going to be on the up side, but it's too soon to be totally confident of that. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Mullins. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': ""Well, I don't have much to add. I agree with Larry that we've had a great year; we didn't know it. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""We didn't appreciate it. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""Well, one senses that the risks appear to be tilting in the upside direction, but it's probably too soon to be very sure of that; maybe they should be characterized as symmetric.I took very much to mind Tom Melzer's remarks earlier of where we were two meetings ago and what happened immediately thereafter.I think we'd all agree that gives us all plenty of reason to be humble when it comes to making projections.I'm struck by the fact that so many people this morning have said that the tone of things is leading the statistics.That's probably to be expected; on the other hand, it's not to be trusted either.So, we undoubtedly have challenging times ahead and difficult choices out there.Maybe they will come sooner than we think.They're probably going to be on the up side, but it's too soon to be totally confident of that.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Mullins.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': ""Well, I don't have much to add.I agree with Larry that we've had a great year; we didn't know it.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""We didn't appreciate it.""}]",yes,,,,
850,854,19930203_133_14,MR. SYRON.,"""Now, we think in a simple two-sector model a lot of this stuff was produced in the defense sector and it wasn't entering the measurements for consumer prices anyway.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': ""One strong sector has been the nonbank financial services sector, particularly in greater Boston. That has had an impact not only on the housing market, which has stabilized and actually turned up a little, but also on the commercial real estate market, which also has stabilized. However, [commercial rentals] have stabilized at around $22 a square foot, I'd say, for top Class A space, which translates to the space being worth somewhere around $120 to $150 a square foot; it was built at $250 to $400 in a lot of cases. So, there is an adjustment clearly going on. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'They doubled [in] New England dollars! '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': ""I would say the tone in New England is very similar in many ways to that in San Francisco.The economy remains mixed although improved from the first quarter of last year.Retailers had a much improved Christmas and their inventories are quite lean now.There are the usual complaints about margins; people expect to be able to increase margins, and there haven't been the post-Christmas sales we often have seen in the past.One strong sector has been the nonbank financial services sector, particularly in greater Boston.That has had an impact not only on the housing market, which has stabilized and actually turned up a little, but also on the commercial real estate market, which also has stabilized.However, [commercial rentals] have stabilized at around $22 a square foot, I'd say, for top Class A space, which translates to the space being worth somewhere around $120 to $150 a square foot; it was built at $250 to $400 in a lot of cases.So, there is an adjustment clearly going on.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'They doubled [in] New England dollars!'}]",yes,,,,
851,855,19930203_260_12,MR. MULLINS.,"""We are jointly targeting M2 and velocity, which suggests to me that we're implicitly targeting nominal GDP.""","I would support the plain vanilla 1/2 percentage point cut on both ends. I'm not attracted to cutting the lower end to 2 percent and leaving the upper end at 6-1/2 percent, first because I think it appears to be a bit cute. Politically, I think we would hear about drawing the target out just a bit to capture that last shot. And I don't think people are too worried about very rapid M2 growth and our slamming on the brakes right now; they're worried about slower growth. So, I'm for a plain vanilla, 1/2 point cut on both ends. I am growing a bit concerned about this whole targeting process, even though I'm comfortable with policy. I think we're headed for trouble because even if the economy performs well, we're going to show a negative [growth rate for M2 and M3] in the first quarter of 1993. And if real GDP is 3 percent, we're still going to hear the criticism--not just the political criticism but the academic criticism--that we are holding back the pace of this recovery, restraining it. This is what we've heard even though we've had two quarters of 3-1/2 percent GDP growth. I've become a little disenchanted with trying to explain it as velocity changes because I think that's not selling especially well. We're simply not targeting M2 at the current time in the sense that low M2 growth will not lead to a policy change. We are jointly targeting M2 and velocity, which suggests to me that we're implicitly targeting nominal GDP. I feel much more comfortable with a nominal GDP target than I do with an M2 target, but in some sense we're not revealing the nominal GDP target. So, this causes a lot of confusion. As this goes on, I think we're going to have to explore other more structurally satisfying ways to explain this phenomenon. I like the notion of capturing the distortion in the other aggregates and, for example, pointing out that M2 adjusted for the yield curve is growing, M2 plus bond funds are growing, and M2 and bank deposits are growing; it's only the S&Ls that are not. Obviously, I don't think at this stage that we should consider monitoring ranges or anything like that. All these aggregates have problems. But something is going to remain unsatisfying about a process in which we show very, very low M2 growth and then say it's sort of okay, we'll make it up on velocity. Again, for the time being we're on this path and I don't think we can do much about it except that we should continue to think about it because we're going to be forced back to the issue. In the interim, I think you're exactly right: The least disruptive thing to do is to take a plain vanilla 1/2 point cut, which I believe is fully discounted.","[{'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': ""Having some sort of range, aside from the fact that it's required, is a good idea because we need to evaluate the incoming information against something. If we were to follow that approach rigorously, we would establish a range that would be either centered around the midpoint of Don's forecast and/or would be centered around a growth that we consider consistent with a noninflationary environment in the long run. I think both of those would imply lower ranges than we're talking about today, and I don't think this is the time to move that aggressively. So, I'm comfortable with what you're suggesting. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Mullins. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': ""And to the people who want to attribute that to us it would be a rather strange commentary if we say that in some sense we are unwilling to have that kind of growth again this year.So, I think that consideration suggests that the range ought to go down.In listening to your discussion, it seems to me that what you're suggesting, and I certainly agree, is that M2 and the other aggregates are information variables.We have a whole host of those variables that we look at constantly.Having some sort of range, aside from the fact that it's required, is a good idea because we need to evaluate the incoming information against something.If we were to follow that approach rigorously, we would establish a range that would be either centered around the midpoint of Don's forecast and/or would be centered around a growth that we consider consistent with a noninflationary environment in the long run.I think both of those would imply lower ranges than we're talking about today, and I don't think this is the time to move that aggressively.So, I'm comfortable with what you're suggesting.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Mullins.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,utterance
852,856,19930518_15_16,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""But it came out pretty well.""","Thank you very much. Let me just add something about that intervention episode. It resulted from fairly close coordination between the Fed and the Treasury. When we began over here to see the spillover effects on the exchange rate, on the bond market, and on the stock market, the notion of a deterioration in confidence became, I think, somewhat more evident than it had been previously. We had been arguing here that we had a necessary condition to get a response in the market from intervention because the market did not expect intervention, meaning it was net short. And in our discussions with the Treasury we suggested that a two-pronged approach be initiated that day. One was to intervene moderately in the market but visibly. This clearly came as a surprise to the market; just watching the screens one could immediately see a variety of the shorts begin to cover. Concurrently, we knew that there were opportunities for both Messrs. Bentsen and Summers to make remarks that day, considering the fact that in the period immediately preceding, the President--and obviously even earlier Secretary Bentsen and Secretary Brown--had made comments which suggested, as Gretchen pointed out, that there was perhaps some concerted American policy to strengthen the yen. The truth of the matter is that no such policy existed. These were in the nature of ad hoc comments by commentators who were not discussing American policy, but really were observers of the scene who concluded that history tells us that if the exchange rate of the yen rises, the Japanese surplus will fall. In fact, we are not certain what would happen. Indeed, my suspicion is that if we actually tried to create changes in exchange rates by consistent intervention, the secondary consequences in the markets, mainly in the expectations area, would very likely make the correlations which are fairly robust between real exchange rates and current account deficits break down. So, what we were trying to do was to indicate that these comments were nothing more than academic discussions about relationships. I think we were about 20 percent successful, which is about 10 percent more than I would have thought. But it came out pretty well. In fact, I told [my colleagues] that I thought the [outcome] that day was about as good as it gets in this endeavor to intervene in the markets and not to expect that there is an easy process here by which one can readily manipulate exchange rates. To his credit Larry Summers, who is very knowledgeable about all of this, has been very cooperative with us; he has made certain to keep us fully informed about any issues and discussions that they have been involved in, and we have tried to reciprocate. Hopefully, that process will continue. Any questions for Gretchen? Tom.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': '[Hearing none,] I guess everybody has read the two books and all the questions have been answered! '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman, for the opportunity to summarize the study. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""And thank you very much, indeed. We'll now move on to Gretchen Greene and operations of the Foreign Desk. ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. GREENE.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.] '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I must say I didn\'t have a chance to read the fat books but I did read the summary, and it really is useful in segregating the various types of problems that confront us.I\'m not saying that I feel overly encouraged about different means that we could employ other than what we are doing.I guess we all hope that somewhere down the line we\'re going to be able to deviate from ""funds only,"" if I may put it that way, as a policy.But I think the type of data systems that you set up for an evaluation will enable us to continue until we can fundamentally come to grips with a view that presumably for us[fed funds] continue as our optimum operating policy procedure.Questions for President Broaddus?[Hearing none,] I guess everybody has read the two books and all the questions have been answered!'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman, for the opportunity to summarize the study.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""And thank you very much, indeed.We'll now move on to Gretchen Greene and operations of the Foreign Desk.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. GREENE.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.]'}]",yes,no,,,
853,857,19940322_128_1,MR. LINDSEY.,"""Mike, I note that in the forecast there is a roll-back at the long end of about 1/2 percentage point, but suppose that doesn't happen.""","Mike, I note that in the forecast there is a roll-back at the long end of about 1/2 percentage point, but suppose that doesn't happen. How would that change your forecast?","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""It's not entirely separable from those features of the economic system that relate to how much pressure we get on wages and prices at given measured levels of unemployment. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""Well, to the extent that the NAIRU doesn't change, it clearly has significant implications. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'Well, all things equal, if we held to our assumption of the NAIRU of 6-1/2 percent or a shade less and we had unemployment at 6.8 percent, and looked at those numbers very, very finely, that would be enough slack, presumably, to give us some modest edging off in the inflation rate over the coming year or two. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Thank you. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Lindsey. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""It has proven very difficult in recent years to get a fix on that Okun's Law relationship and where we are in terms of cyclical or trend behavior of labor force participation in particular.So I think there is a significant area of uncertainty in this whole relationship.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""And when you do that, does that raise any questions or issues about one's view of NAIRU?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""No, I think this is separable.But again, going into this deeply, one gets into questions of labor market structure and behavior.It's not entirely separable from those features of the economic system that relate to how much pressure we get on wages and prices at given measured levels of unemployment.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""Well, to the extent that the NAIRU doesn't change, it clearly has significant implications.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'Well, all things equal, if we held to our assumption of the NAIRU of 6-1/2 percent or a shade less and we had unemployment at 6.8 percent, and looked at those numbers very, very finely, that would be enough slack, presumably, to give us some modest edging off in the inflation rate over the coming year or two.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Thank you.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Lindsey.'}]",no,,,,
854,858,19940706_470_4,MR. FORRESTAL.,"""This is not to deny in any sense that there may not be some inflationary pressures that are building.""","Mr. Chairman, as I look at the domestic economy alone, I have a slightly different view than you do in the sense that, as I said yesterday, I think there is more symmetry there than asymmetry. That is to say, in my mind the risks are probably fairly evenly balanced. It's pretty clear from the evidence and from the discussion we have had around the table in the last day and a half that the expansion is moderating, and I think the big question is whether it is going to continue to moderate to a sustainable level, whether it is going to get down closer to potential. This is not to deny in any sense that there may not be some inflationary pressures that are building. So, I think the best course for monetary policy at the moment is to pause and see what effect our actions totaling 125 basis points have had on the economy. I don't think waiting until August 16 presents any particular problem. To me it's very, very clear, as you have indicated, that any move today would be interpreted by the market as intended to support the dollar, and I think that would be a mistake for reasons that have been articulated by several people. It's also important to remember that the basic problem with the dollar is not widespread but really with the yen and to a lesser extent with the deutschemark. Therefore, the inflationary effects will be minimal, at least in the short term. I think there is one risk or one problem that may emerge from no action in that it may reinforce the impression held in some quarters that the United States really wants a lower dollar and we are following a policy of benign neglect. But I don't think there is a thing in the world we can do about that except perhaps urge the Treasury to keep saying things to the contrary. That leaves me, Mr. Chairman, with a view that we should adopt alternative B. My preference would have been for symmetry because of my view of the economy. However, if we are going to err, I would prefer to err on the up side, and therefore I can support an asymmetric directive. I also think that we need to make an announcement today, but we face a dilemma in that we have not yet dealt with this policy announcement question. It would be very helpful to get that settled soon and inform the market.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'A little more generally, let me just say that on a couple of occasions this year in addition to saying what we have done, we have had some additional language in these announcements. Since those kinds of statements also can affect expectations and perceptions of policy and presumably longer-term interest rates as well, I think it would be good to do it a little more systematically if we are going to do that in the future. Perhaps we could have some alternative announcement language in the Bluebook ahead of meetings along the lines of the current inclusion of alternative directive language. But we can address that later. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Forrestal. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': ""At a minimum, I think we should raise the rate 1/4 point today with the understanding that we would raise it promptly further if incoming information indicates a need to do that.I don't like 1/4 point increases generally, but I think that in the current situation such an increase would be better than none.I am still not sure I know what an asymmetric directive is, but I think I favor it in these circumstances.As far as the announcement is concerned, I agree that we need to make some sort of announcement this morning.A little more generally, let me just say that on a couple of occasions this year in addition to saying what we have done, we have had some additional language in these announcements.Since those kinds of statements also can affect expectations and perceptions of policy and presumably longer-term interest rates as well, I think it would be good to do it a little more systematically if we are going to do that in the future.Perhaps we could have some alternative announcement language in the Bluebook ahead of meetings along the lines of the current inclusion of alternative directive language.But we can address that later.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Forrestal.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
855,859,19940816_78_1,MR. PRELL.,"""Well, we are talking about rather small differences.""","Well, we are talking about rather small differences. A 1 percentage point change in the funds rate done immediately according to our quarterly model will only take several tenths off GDP growth by the second half of 1995. And it only means a couple of tenths or so on the CPI. So, if you simply select a more gradual rise, the differences are going to be even smaller. I guess what we are suggesting is that, in our judgment, the tilt begins to be most likely in an upward direction in terms of inflation right now, that is, given that we feel we are essentially at full employment.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'I think they have about a half percentage point increase in the funds rate in the second half of this year and nothing after that. '}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Yes, they actually have rates backing off, I think. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'Right, I think they have some modest easing next year and bond yields come down a bit more than in our forecast, and yet they have somewhat weaker growth over the next six quarters. In terms of what a more gradual rate increase would produce if one used our quarterly model, the distinctions, as I hinted in my remarks, would be modest. '}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Too short of a period of time perhaps? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'We are interested, Mike, in whether you ran any numbers on what a somewhat slower rate of tightening might produce next year in the way of inflation and GDP growth.I am looking, for example, at the DRI forecasts, which tend to have less monetary tightening, somewhat similar if not lower GDP growth, and just about the same inflation numbers built into them.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'I think DRI is perhaps in the lower part of the spectrum right now.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'I think they have about a half percentage point increase in the funds rate in the second half of this year and nothing after that.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Yes, they actually have rates backing off, I think.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'Right, I think they have some modest easing next year and bond yields come down a bit more than in our forecast, and yet they have somewhat weaker growth over the next six quarters.In terms of what a more gradual rate increase would produce if one used our quarterly model, the distinctions, as I hinted in my remarks, would be modest.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Too short of a period of time perhaps?'}]",yes,yes,utterance,,
856,860,19950201_962_12,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""I see that Larry Lindsey is shaking his head as I am talking.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""This gets back to the second risk that came out in response to Michael Moskow's question. I suspect that may subject us to even more criticism inasmuch as Congress and the American people apparently strongly oppose extending credit to Mexico. In effect, one could argue that we would be participating in an effort to subvert that will of the public, if you will. I do not want to be too dramatic in stating that. This could cause a re-evaluation of the institutional structure of the Fed in a very fundamental and broad way. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'Now, I know that technically the way this appears on the surface is that the Treasury is doing it and we are facilitating it.But I think the perception is going to be that we are very much a full partner in this.The other thing that concerns me is the use of warehousing arrangements.As we all know, we have been criticized in the past when warehousing arrangements were used to facilitate ""normal"" transactions whose purpose was to stabilize dollar exchange markets.What we are talking about here is a totally different type of facilitation, much larger-sized.This gets back to the second risk that came out in response to Michael Moskow\'s question.I suspect that may subject us to even more criticism inasmuch as Congress and the American people apparently strongly oppose extending credit to Mexico.In effect, one could argue that we would be participating in an effort to subvert that will of the public, if you will.I do not want to be too dramatic in stating that.This could cause a re-evaluation of the institutional structure of the Fed in a very fundamental and broad way.'}]",no,,,,
857,861,19950706_264_9,MR. STERN.,"""Another related and important issue has to do with public support for any objective that we adopt, whether it is mandated by statute or we do it ourselves.""","With regard to some of the issues that Al Broaddus raised, I think his points are well taken. We ought to be looking at monetary policy as it relates to inflation. My reservations have to do with my impression that a couple of his points in some sense jump the gun. They have to do with two issues in particular. Don Kohn raised a question about the quantification of the benefits of price stability and indicated--or at least I took his comments to mean--that the evidence was mixed and uncertain. If we started doing present value calculations, depending on what estimates we believed, we might find significant benefits or we might find that the benefits are rather small relative to their cost. I happen to believe that there are benefits there and that they are sizable, but I think it is incumbent upon us to make that case more compellingly than we have to date. I don't see any way around the difficult research that probably involves. Another related and important issue has to do with public support for any objective that we adopt, whether it is mandated by statute or we do it ourselves. To some extent, it falls on us to build the public support for a price stability objective. I don't think that support is totally lacking, but I don't believe there is any great conviction among the public at large that price stability ought to be the preeminent objective of monetary policy. Until we put together some of that evidence I was referring to earlier, I think moving way out ahead and trying to bring the public with us might be very difficult. So, for the reasons that I stated, I would be cautious at this juncture about going down that path. I do think there are issues there, and I suggested before that we ought to be discussing and looking at them and probably finding some research to do. I am concerned about moving too far too quickly.","[{'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': ""I would not change the M2 range. After listening to Don, the explanation for changing the M3 range seems straightforward, and in that sense I would go ahead and do that. I don't think that would cause any problems with your testimony. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I agree with that. M2 is the crucial aggregate. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Along the lines of my comments earlier, I am in agreement with not making any changes in M2.You did not address M3 in your comments, Mr. Chairman, but I would be a little more comfortable making a change, particularly for 1996, basically because I think that range has gotten extraordinarily low.The arguments the staff makes that the changes in intermediation trends probably will affect M3 over a longer course of time seem to make sense.So, I would like to cast my vote for alternative II for 1995 and alternative I for 1996.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, with regard to the aggregates, I certainly take your comments to heart.In light of that, I would favor alternative II for 1995 and alternative I for 1996.I would not change the M2 range.After listening to Don, the explanation for changing the M3 range seems straightforward, and in that sense I would go ahead and do that.I don't think that would cause any problems with your testimony.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I agree with that.M2 is the crucial aggregate.'}]",yes,,,,
858,862,19950706_270_2,MR. MELZER.,"""The more leadership we exercise in this, the better off we are going to be in terms of the ultimate outcome.""","I agree and I felt that way when we talked about this in February. The more leadership we exercise in this, the better off we are going to be in terms of the ultimate outcome. There are different points of view on this issue, but I think it would be very unfortunate if, for example, we got to a year from now and we were debating how we might adjust the M2 and M3 ranges and never got to this topic. Price stability is what a central bank is all about. We ought to be quite explicit about that commitment, and we ought to discuss how we might achieve it operationally. So, that is very consistent with the sorts of topics that Al is raising. Ultimately, I think it would improve our accountability, which would in turn improve our performance and lead to higher economic growth and employment than we otherwise would have achieved. Gary Stern made some good points about documenting that case. I think that is becoming increasingly urgent, as pointed up by this discussion today, and it is something we have to pursue.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'We might be thinking about the need to revise our approach for 1996 and perhaps begin to move our time horizon further out. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""We probably will have to respond to a bill on the Hill at some point. Our response will have to capture the view of this Committee in its various aspects as they have been raised, largely pro and con, by you, Al Broaddus, and the rest of us. It is going to be our one shot at the legislation, and I am a little concerned that if we don't focus on this issue, we could suddenly find ourselves with significant mandated revisions in what we do. Those revisions may not involve what we wanted, and in retrospect we may find that we could have gotten a different and more favorable outcome. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""I would add that our discussion today points up to me that we are in an increasingly untenable position with respect to how we communicate to Congress our long-term intentions about monetary policy and the need for some sort of nominal anchor.I don't expect anything necessarily to come out of what Al has suggested today, but I think we ought to have that as an important topic of discussion well in advance of our February meeting next year.We might be thinking about the need to revise our approach for 1996 and perhaps begin to move our time horizon further out.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""We probably will have to respond to a bill on the Hill at some point.Our response will have to capture the view of this Committee in its various aspects as they have been raised, largely pro and con, by you, Al Broaddus, and the rest of us.It is going to be our one shot at the legislation, and I am a little concerned that if we don't focus on this issue, we could suddenly find ourselves with significant mandated revisions in what we do.Those revisions may not involve what we wanted, and in retrospect we may find that we could have gotten a different and more favorable outcome.""}]",yes,no,,,
859,863,19960521_211_8,MS. MINEHAN.,"""Does a price stability goal mean holding the line where we are and taking advantage of opportunities to get inflation lower, or does it mean some forward-looking policy to drive inflation down with all that implies about how we measure it.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': ""That might beg some questions about what price stability is, but that's okay because we need to confront those one way or another in any case. If I may be a little more specific, it might be useful, say, with a horizon that runs out to the year 2000, to flesh out how you might interpret an opportunistic strategy under certain kinds of assumptions and what that might mean in terms of some price measure like the CPI. Perhaps as another alternative, you might add something that is a little more like our traditional inflation targeting with more specific numerical goals, year by year. That kind of structure might allow us to get a little more quickly to some of the questions with which we really need to grapple. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Minehan. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': ""I would also suggest, Don, that the staff needs to put some structure on this kind of policy discussion just as you do on our long-term policy deliberations.The form that it usually takes is some set of alternatives.You do that with simulations to a degree already, but I am thinking about something that would be more structured in terms of a goal.That might beg some questions about what price stability is, but that's okay because we need to confront those one way or another in any case.If I may be a little more specific, it might be useful, say, with a horizon that runs out to the year 2000, to flesh out how you might interpret an opportunistic strategy under certain kinds of assumptions and what that might mean in terms of some price measure like the CPI.Perhaps as another alternative, you might add something that is a little more like our traditional inflation targeting with more specific numerical goals, year by year.That kind of structure might allow us to get a little more quickly to some of the questions with which we really need to grapple.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Minehan.'}]",no,,,,
860,864,19960703_337_1,MS. PHILLIPS.,"""But focusing on GDP, you are still going to be addressing the question of an external oil shock.""","But focusing on GDP, you are still going to be addressing the question of an external oil shock.","[{'speaker': 'MS. PHILLIPS.', 'text': 'It would eventually work its way into GDP at some point. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Over the long run, oil prices would work their way through but never fully. That's because there would be a significant shift to domestic natural gas. The economy would go back to using more coal, and we would have much smaller cars. So, the higher oil prices would filter through only partly. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The gross domestic purchases index goes up by .7 or .8 percent because we have an assumption of a significant rise in crude oil prices at the beginning of the year.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'What happens in the second quarter?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'It is not relevant.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'Right, that is the point.That is what I meant by a level change.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'But supposing the price level goes up again in the second quarter and up again in the third?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'That would require a constant acceleration in oil prices.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Yes, sure.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'With feedback.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'How do we respond to that?The GDP deflator is 2 percent.I can create a scenario where the GDP deflator is 2 percent and the gross domestic purchases index is 5 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. PHILLIPS.', 'text': 'It would eventually work its way into GDP at some point.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Over the long run, oil prices would work their way through but never fully.That's because there would be a significant shift to domestic natural gas.The economy would go back to using more coal, and we would have much smaller cars.So, the higher oil prices would filter through only partly.""}]",no,,,,
861,865,19970205_310_1,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""As soon as we start to use it in that context, then when M2 starts to grow at a far slower rate, though we may not think that means anything, we have put it in play and the devil will come back to collect his dues.""","As soon as we start to use it in that context, then when M2 starts to grow at a far slower rate, though we may not think that means anything, we have put it in play and the devil will come back to collect his dues.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MCTEER.', 'text': 'We certainly do not want to give the M\'s too much external play nor to give the impression that we are once again targeting any of them. On the other hand, not only do I think we should be watching them more internally than I believe we have been lately, I also believe that we should make occasional references to them publicly along with other things so that they do not die out in the public mind. It helps greatly in the rhetoric when tightening becomes necessary to be able to say we are having to tighten because the monetary aggregates are growing at an inflationary rate. That sounds a lot better than saying that we have to tighten because the economy is growing and because employment is growing and unemployment is too low. So, money is a very useful thing to have in our tool kit, and we ought to keep it before the public--we have to ""use it or lose it."" '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. PHILLIPS.', 'text': 'In sum, it would be good for us to get back to basics.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President McTeer.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MCTEER.', 'text': 'I also favor no change in the ranges for the reasons that you gave, Mr. Chairman.We certainly do not want to give the M\'s too much external play nor to give the impression that we are once again targeting any of them.On the other hand, not only do I think we should be watching them more internally than I believe we have been lately, I also believe that we should make occasional references to them publicly along with other things so that they do not die out in the public mind.It helps greatly in the rhetoric when tightening becomes necessary to be able to say we are having to tighten because the monetary aggregates are growing at an inflationary rate.That sounds a lot better than saying that we have to tighten because the economy is growing and because employment is growing and unemployment is too low.So, money is a very useful thing to have in our tool kit, and we ought to keep it before the public--we have to ""use it or lose it.""'}]",yes,yes,sentence,neutral,-5 sentences
862,866,19970702_184_9,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""That is effectively what our argument is, and it is the right argument.""","I think we were well aware of what would happen when we shifted to an explicit federal funds rate target. As you may recall, we fought off that apparently inevitable day as long as we could. We ran into the situation, as you may remember, when the money supply, nonborrowed reserves, and various other non-interest-rate measures on which the Committee had focused had in turn fallen by the wayside. We were left with interest rates because we had no alternative. I think it is still in a sense our official policy that if we can find a way back to where we are able to target the money supply or net borrowed reserves or some other non-interest measure instead of the federal funds rate, we would like to do that. I am not sure we will be able to return to such a regime and in the process create a whole new army of Fed watchers who interpret what we are doing, but the reason is not that we enthusiastically embrace targeting the federal funds rate. We did it as an unfortunate fallback when we had no other options, and I think the consequences are much as we anticipated. The way to get around this problem is to meet it head on, and instead of saying that we are moving rates up to curb inflation, we should say that we are moving them up to sustain long-term employment growth. That is effectively what our argument is, and it is the right argument. It involves bypassing the intermediate inflationary imbalances issue in a lot of these discussions. My opinion is that from a public relations point of view it is very hard to sell low inflation when we already have low inflation. It works only in a period like the late 1970s when everyone was terrified of the consequences of inflation and the Federal Reserve effectively had a mandate. We do not have a mandate now, and the reason is that we have been successful. It is the fallout of being successful that we have to handle. It is a very difficult and complex public relations issue. But we have to realize that if we fail to succeed in the public relations, we may still have to move ahead and do what we have to do and take the consequences. We still have to do our job.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'They do not really pose the kinds of risk to the economy that some of our actions necessarily did in the mid-1980s when we were indeed tightening policy in an effort to reduce inflation at a time when our credibility was relatively low. I realize that while these points may make good economic sense and may be persuasive to some people, putting a pretty face on a funds rate increase is a tough sell when we are dealing with the media or Congress or the general public for that matter. I think we need to find a way to get this message across and to be persistent in doing so. I thought you made some similar points very effectively in your NYU speech, Mr. Chairman. We need to do more of that whenever we get the chance, and it strikes me that your upcoming testimony might be a good opportunity for another tutorial. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'In those situations, we really are not tightening policy; we simply are doing the minimum needed to hold the line on inflation and maintain the current inflation rate.Far from endangering the expansion, it seems to me these kinds of actions are essential to sustaining it.They do not really pose the kinds of risk to the economy that some of our actions necessarily did in the mid-1980s when we were indeed tightening policy in an effort to reduce inflation at a time when our credibility was relatively low.I realize that while these points may make good economic sense and may be persuasive to some people, putting a pretty face on a funds rate increase is a tough sell when we are dealing with the media or Congress or the general public for that matter.I think we need to find a way to get this message across and to be persistent in doing so.I thought you made some similar points very effectively in your NYU speech, Mr. Chairman.We need to do more of that whenever we get the chance, and it strikes me that your upcoming testimony might be a good opportunity for another tutorial.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,,utterance
863,867,19980701_28_3,MR. TRUMAN.,"""In fact, that is part of the argument.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Minehan. '}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'On the Japanese situation again, we received what I thought was a fascinating paper on the policy options available to the Japanese. It certainly emphasized the fact that they need to do something that is fairly aggressive and strong on the fiscal side. The paper also discussed the topic that Al Broaddus brought up, namely, the potential for a depreciating yen to lead over some period of time to a recovery through an expansion in exports. In that regard, I was wondering whether the yen has actually depreciated on a trade-weighted basis. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': ""So, the Japanese are beating the expectation that they would do nothing.That, I think, has helped to moderate the yen's movement over the last few days and has prevented it from going back up to 146.But much remains to be seen between now and the other side of the Japanese elections.I don't have the sense that the market is anticipating any imminent intervention.I think market participants are very curious about further announcements out of Tokyo.I hope that answers your question.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'Yes, thank you.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Minehan.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'On the Japanese situation again, we received what I thought was a fascinating paper on the policy options available to the Japanese.It certainly emphasized the fact that they need to do something that is fairly aggressive and strong on the fiscal side.The paper also discussed the topic that Al Broaddus brought up, namely, the potential for a depreciating yen to lead over some period of time to a recovery through an expansion in exports.In that regard, I was wondering whether the yen has actually depreciated on a trade-weighted basis.'}]",no,,,,
864,868,19980929_279_2,VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.,"""I do not know the answer at this point.""",One of the things that we have to be able to say to Congress is whether the state-chartered banks that we supervise participated in the equity piece or not. I do not know the answer at this point.,"[{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': ""People knew they were dabbling in that sector of the markets, but everyone including a lot of the press had thought of LTCP as a fixed-income shop. Some of the firms who looked at LTCP's position in more detail than I, who had the weekend to investigate, felt that the preponderance of the exposure, if one uses the $3 to $5 billion number, that needed to be stabilized was the equity position and the equity volatility position. That's in trades with LTCP in total-rate-of-return swaps. A lesser part of the losses was in the fixed-income financing area. So, the bigger risk was this huge equity volatility position that LTCP had taken on. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'The only fully convincing story is that the problem did not happen, and we know that is not the case.[Laughter]'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'All I care about is that we produce accurate testimony.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. RIVLIN.', 'text': 'I agree.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': ""I would like to offer one final perspective on the numbers that I discussed.One of the surprises for people who went to look at LTCP's position, myself included, was the tremendous size of their equity and equity volatility positions.People knew they were dabbling in that sector of the markets, but everyone including a lot of the press had thought of LTCP as a fixed-income shop.Some of the firms who looked at LTCP's position in more detail than I, who had the weekend to investigate, felt that the preponderance of the exposure, if one uses the $3 to $5 billion number, that needed to be stabilized was the equity position and the equity volatility position.That's in trades with LTCP in total-rate-of-return swaps.A lesser part of the losses was in the fixed-income financing area.So, the bigger risk was this huge equity volatility position that LTCP had taken on.""}]",no,,,,
865,869,19981117_94_16,MR. FISHER.,"""And as you and I were discussing before the meeting, it will only get worse next year in the Y2K environment.""","There is something of a ""Catch-22"" about the liquidity issue. I'm particularly sensitive to that issue because, while Wright Patman was free to have his views, one of the jobs the Committee has assigned to me is to worry about what I would do if I had to sell large amounts of securities within a short period of time. What if I have to make changes to the System's balance sheet along the lines that we talked about a couple of years ago? In that context, I feel I need to be as diversified as possible among the full range of assets that I am allowed to hold, so that I will have maximum flexibility in the event that I have to shrink the size of the SOMA portfolio to a major extent. We currently hold about 30 percent of the Treasury bills outstanding, about 10 percent of the coupon issues outstanding, and 5 percent of the index-linked securities outstanding. Now, the share of Treasury bills in SOMA has been declining recently because I can not in good conscience, and the Treasury is rather uncomfortable as well, continue buying such large amounts of Treasury bills as to dry up the supply in the public market. So, I am constrained on the bill side. On the coupon side, our operations currently are geared toward trying to smooth out our holdings so we will have roughly a 10 percent share across the coupon spectrum. Once we have reached a smooth distribution across all maturities, then we will have to step up our purchases of coupon securities. In my discussions with the dealers, I tell them that they are responsible for fostering a deep, liquid market; and, in turn, they suggest that I also have some responsibility in that regard. Now, you may feel that this is a camel's nose coming into the tent but if the System, having purchased Treasury indexed securities at auction, were never to purchase them in outright operations, the market would see that as a rather big black eye for those securities. But I'm not sure I want to be providing such a negative signal to the market about a type of security that the U.S. Treasury is offering. Consistent with the spirit of your concern, President Jordan, I want to proceed very carefully. I certainly have no intention of holding a larger share of the outstanding indexed debt than I do of the regular coupon debt, and I would move in that direction very gradually and episodically. However, I have a problem in terms of the asset classes that I hold, and I feel some constraint on where I should go. And as you and I were discussing before the meeting, it will only get worse next year in the Y2K environment. So I'm feeling somewhat hemmed in, and if people have alternative solutions for me, I am all ears.","[{'speaker': 'MS. RIVLIN.', 'text': '[Laughter] '}, {'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': ""Whatever the Treasury's reasons might be for wanting to increase the outstanding stock of index-linked securities, I would be troubled if we were, in effect, to undertake to cancel some of those securities by monetizing them. As I understand it, a problem with that market has been its illiquidity; it is not a market that has developed breadth and depth, and all those things. For us to buy up some of these securities and remove them from the market when it is still in its early stages of development would be troubling, so I think we should proceed very slowly and carefully before engaging in this activity. And then there's the notion you alluded to, regarding the public policy perception of the central bank buying inflation protection. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'Wright Patman used to say that the bonds owned by the Federal Reserve might as well be burned because the Treasury gives the Fed interest on those bonds, and for the most part, the Fed gives the interest back to the Treasury.Those bonds do not exist in an economic sense any more.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. RIVLIN.', 'text': ""We didn't know that there were no bonds in our portfolio![Laughter]""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': ""Whatever the Treasury's reasons might be for wanting to increase the outstanding stock of index-linked securities, I would be troubled if we were, in effect, to undertake to cancel some of those securities by monetizing them.As I understand it, a problem with that market has been its illiquidity; it is not a market that has developed breadth and depth, and all those things.For us to buy up some of these securities and remove them from the market when it is still in its early stages of development would be troubling, so I think we should proceed very slowly and carefully before engaging in this activity.And then there's the notion you alluded to, regarding the public policy perception of the central bank buying inflation protection.""}]",yes,no,,,
866,870,19981117_147_1,MR. FISHER.,"""I have two other items, which I hope can go a little more quickly.""","I have two other items, which I hope can go a little more quickly. First, I need a vote authorizing renewal of our swap agreements with the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Mexico. By my silence and your inaction, all our other swap arrangements would lapse as described in Mr. Truman's memo and my memo to you of September 28. This is consistent with what we have discussed in recent years. Karen Johnson is working with other central banks to insure that the announcement of this action in the FOMC minutes that will be released shortly after the December meeting will be consistent with statements that might be issued by other central banks. That issue is still being worked on. With regard to the second item, I am seeking your approval of an amendment to the Domestic Authorization to allow repo operations of up to a 60-day maturity. This was explained in my memo to you of November 10. I would be happy to answer questions on either of those two items. I seek your vote on both.","[{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'I need a vote on my operations during the period. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Would somebody like to move approval? '}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'So move. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'Second. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Without objection. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': ""It is not vital.I think you've made a very good suggestion, Chairman Greenspan.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, could we also get information from foreign central banks?After all, the U.K. has been involved in this a good bit longer than we have.And we may get some useful information from experience abroad.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': ""There are very few foreign central banks that have the kind of permanent portfolio that we have.There is also information from the U.K. and other countries about their experience with inflation-indexed securities.I don't think it is going to be apropos central bank operations.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'When I made reference to the Committee a little earlier, I was really referring to all 18 people around this table.This is a long-term issue, and on certain questions that go beyond one year, the views of all of us are important, not just the Committee members at any point in time.Peter Fisher.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'I need a vote on my operations during the period.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Would somebody like to move approval?'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'So move.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'Second.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Without objection.'}]",yes,no,,,
867,871,19990330_60_8,MR. BOEHNE.,"""There is, to be sure, some upward pressure on wages, but productivity gains and cost-cutting are acting as effective offsets.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Economic activity in the Philadelphia District remains strong and shows few signs of slowing. Labor markets continue to be tight, but competition remains fierce and there appear to be few inflationary pressures. The outlook is also positive whether one talks to manufacturers, retailers, auto dealers, homebuilders, or commercial real estate people. That said, however, one does not get the feeling that we are crossing over from strong growth to boom conditions. There is an absence of inflationary pressures in the pipeline. Businesses are still operating on the basis that prices will not rise. There is, to be sure, some upward pressure on wages, but productivity gains and cost-cutting are acting as effective offsets. And even in real estate, one does not get the sense of the kind of boom conditions that prevailed ten years ago, even in areas that are prone to such conditions. I think much the same can be said about the national economy. We see strong growth, few signs of a buildup of inflationary pressures, and the absence of boom conditions. As for the risks, the upside risk to the domestic economy is still there, as it has been; and the downside risk from abroad is also still there, as it has been. The risk of financial contagion, while still there, appears to have subsided--a little anyway. While a case can be made for tinkering with the federal funds rate to cancel, in effect, some of the insurance we took out last fall, I am much more persuaded that we should leave well enough alone for now and continue to see what unfolds in this truly remarkable economy. And it is remarkable in the sense that it is about everything one could wish for.","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': ""And though our models forecast some increased inflation in 2000, our models have been consistently wrong in forecasting inflation, as have everybody else's models around this table. Therefore, I think we should be somewhat modest about basing any policy change on that forecast. It seems to me that the present stance of policy is extremely well balanced. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': ""The conclusion I draw from all that is this: Although one need not be unnecessarily pessimistic about what is going on in the rest of the world, it is very difficult to be optimistic about it or to think that there will be a positive effect on the United States that we don't anticipate.Rather, it seems to me that the risks are on the downside.As for our domestic economy, it seems to be behaving exactly in the way that the Federal Reserve should wish it to behave.We have sustained economic growth and we have price stability, which to the best of my knowledge is what the Congress of the United States has told us is our mission.Our Bank believes that we will continue to have a healthily growing economy.And though our models forecast some increased inflation in 2000, our models have been consistently wrong in forecasting inflation, as have everybody else's models around this table.Therefore, I think we should be somewhat modest about basing any policy change on that forecast.It seems to me that the present stance of policy is extremely well balanced.Thank you, Mr. Chairman.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne.'}]",no,,,,
868,872,19991221_32_1,MR. PARRY.,"""Mike, I thought the section in the Greenbook on alternative simulations was particularly interesting, especially the comparison between the baseline and the flat funds rate scenario.""","Mike, I thought the section in the Greenbook on alternative simulations was particularly interesting, especially the comparison between the baseline and the flat funds rate scenario. It seems to me, if one compares the effects of monetary policy actions on inflation expectations in the economy, that there is a greater sensitivity now than may have been the case a couple of years ago. And that makes sense to me. We are basically saying that markets are learning and responding to policy actions. But what is a bit confusing is that there is also, I would assume, considerable sensitivity to developments in equity markets as well. If one looks at those two Greenbook alternatives, there is a big impact on expectations as a result of the effect of a change in rates on equity prices. Could you talk a little about how expectations enter into the model now versus how they used to? Is there a greater sensitivity now to policy actions?","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Our forecast of overall economic activity is, as I suggested, in the upper brackets of forecasts that one would find at this point and auto sales are a cyclically sensitive sector of the economy. I think therein lies a very important element of explanation. I don't think there is much more that I can say on this. We consult a number of models, and they give somewhat different results about the likely pattern of auto demand over the next couple of years. But as we look back at recent experience--at how much sales seemed to be above reasonable trends in the past two or three years--we don't see a compelling case for a precipitous decline from here, especially in a fundamentally strong economic environment. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'I am just curious as to why the Greenbook is so much higher than the consensus forecast and the forecast of the auto companies themselves at this point.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Well, no one has had a particularly good track record on forecasting auto sales this year.Even the automobile manufacturers themselves, I think, have been quite surprised by the high level of sales.Our forecast of overall economic activity is, as I suggested, in the upper brackets of forecasts that one would find at this point and auto sales are a cyclically sensitive sector of the economy.I think therein lies a very important element of explanation.I don't think there is much more that I can say on this.We consult a number of models, and they give somewhat different results about the likely pattern of auto demand over the next couple of years.But as we look back at recent experience--at how much sales seemed to be above reasonable trends in the past two or three years--we don't see a compelling case for a precipitous decline from here, especially in a fundamentally strong economic environment.""}]",yes,yes,sentence,neutral,sentence
869,873,20000202_301_12,MR. KOHN.,"""If you do that in circumstances when you are uncertain about the supply side of the economy and you're experiencing favorable supply shocks, the outcomes are not bad.""","I think that is a fair message, and it is illustrated in Chart 4 to a certain extent. I'm not sure about the gradualism part, but it certainly relates to the policy success that you can have. Chart 4 looks at that realized-inflation rule against one that is the same as the price-stability rule. Now, that price-stability scenario in Chart 3 is derived from the model. It assumes that households and businesses and the Federal Reserve have at least a pretty good idea about what is going on. They form their expectations. The Federal Reserve is assumed to have a very good idea what is going to happen in the future as it changes the funds rate. So in a sense this is about as well as we can do. The alternative is the case where we are not sure about what is going to happen in the future. The inflation-rule was used there to illustrate how, if you wait until you see inflation because you are not sure, it may not be such a bad rule to follow, provided there are certain kind of shocks occurring in the economy--that is, the favorable supply shocks. Secondly, as you noted President Jordan, once you see inflation--these are four quarter changes, so it's not just one quarter's worth of inflation--you do need to respond fairly robustly, twice as robustly as the Taylor rule would have you respond. If you do that in circumstances when you are uncertain about the supply side of the economy and you're experiencing favorable supply shocks, the outcomes are not bad. And they are certainly better than if you act on incorrect information. So, the basic message you took was approximately correct: That you can run a successful policy responding ex post under certain circumstances. You have to be careful; that's not the case under all circumstances. It's good to be preemptive where you know some information. But if your policy response is more reactive, you have to get more aggressive.","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'The less confidence one has in leading indicators, the more aggressive one has to be. One might have to see a blip or some new information in order to take policy actions. You might not like the characterization, but the label I would put on the simulation you called the realized-inflation rule is the ""Bunker Hill"" or ""whites of the eyes"" approach. As soon as we see a blip up in inflation, bang, we move and we move aggressively. Is that a fair message to come out with in regard to one\'s confidence or uncertainty about leading indicators? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'At times the empirical experiences tended to favor one framework and at times the other framework--going back and forth, with reasons for uncertainty about both of them.As I looked at the different charts and listened to the narratives that went with them, the message I took from the material was this: The greater the confidence one has in any leading indicator--whether in a NAIRU framework, a money supply/money demand framework or something else--the more gradualist one can afford to be in terms of smaller incremental changes in policy actions.The less confidence one has in leading indicators, the more aggressive one has to be.One might have to see a blip or some new information in order to take policy actions.You might not like the characterization, but the label I would put on the simulation you called the realized-inflation rule is the ""Bunker Hill"" or ""whites of the eyes"" approach.As soon as we see a blip up in inflation, bang, we move and we move aggressively.Is that a fair message to come out with in regard to one\'s confidence or uncertainty about leading indicators?'}]",yes,yes,utterance,entailment,-5 sentences
870,874,20000321_111_14,MR. PRELL.,"""We have long-term rates going up more than before in the corporate market, in part because my sense was that we really had too much yield curve flattening before and more tightening will be needed in the long end.""","Real rates have been more difficult to gauge than usual in this period because of the distortions, if I can put it that way, that have occurred in the fixed-income market. We've seen Treasury yields come down substantially, while movements in others rates have been something of a mixed bag. But in many cases long-term rates have actually come down a bit and run below our expectations. In terms of inflation expectations, there are some hints--but only some--of an upward movement, largely in response to what has been occurring in the oil market. And there are some counter indications, too. The TIP spread, for example, certainly hasn't been moving up lately. Again, that might be confounded by the Treasury market illiquidity. So it is rather difficult to gauge. Bottom line, we felt that while the stock market seemed to be on the track we were anticipating--at least up until the time we fixed the number for our assumption here--interest rate developments certainly were not on the tighter side of what we were anticipating. The economy was showing more momentum coming into the year. And we felt that some greater tightening of policy probably would be required to keep aggregate demand and supply in a balance similar to what we had in the prior forecast. At this point, we have what I would perceive to be a rather similar degree of tightening in the real funds rate because we do have a somewhat higher inflation path. We have added only a 1/4 point on the funds rate. We have long-term rates going up more than before in the corporate market, in part because my sense was that we really had too much yield curve flattening before and more tightening will be needed in the long end. Perhaps it will take more tightening in the short end in order to impose an upward restraint on the economy and bring aggregate demand and supply back into balance.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""Mike, how would you characterize the degree of monetary restraint in the year 2000 in this forecast versus the January forecast? I ask that because nominal rates are about 1/2 percentage point higher in the latest forecast and inflation rates in overall price indices like the CPI are up by almost the same amount, but the core rates are about the same as in the previous forecast. I'm not sure, in your deliberations and the way you look at this, how you formulate your views about real rates. And I was curious about how you see the difference in this forecast versus the previous one. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""On the other hand, those higher interest rates could achieve a stock market outcome that seems less rewarding to capital inflows.In essence, we don't have an answer as to which of these many competing elements will dominate and over what part of the forecast period.We've chosen an almost flat, though not quite flat, outcome for the dollar just as a means of saying that we can identify forces going one way and we can identify forces going the other way.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""Mike, how would you characterize the degree of monetary restraint in the year 2000 in this forecast versus the January forecast?I ask that because nominal rates are about 1/2 percentage point higher in the latest forecast and inflation rates in overall price indices like the CPI are up by almost the same amount, but the core rates are about the same as in the previous forecast.I'm not sure, in your deliberations and the way you look at this, how you formulate your views about real rates.And I was curious about how you see the difference in this forecast versus the previous one.""}]",yes,yes,sentence,entailment,sentence
871,875,20000321_162_18,MR. MEYER.,"""Slowing the economy to trend may, therefore, be just the first step.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. In my judgment little has changed in the outlook and hence the appropriate course for monetary policy since we last met. Let me emphasize the three features of the outlook that, in my judgment, support an increase in the federal funds rate target today and suggest that further increases will be warranted over the course of the next several months. First, the growth in aggregate demand continues to outpace the growth of aggregate supply even allowing for the recent upward revisions to the productivity trend. Many apparently have had difficulty with the story that the productivity shock itself could generate an increase in demand that outpaces the increase in supply. But this link only provides a possible explanation for why demand growth is exceeding supply growth. I believe this link is plausible. But all that really matters for monetary policy is that the growth in demand is exceeding the growth in supply at a time when labor markets are already very tight. Perhaps the more important point is that whether or not demand grows faster than supply following a productivity shock depends critically on the monetary policy response to the productivity shock, a point that President Jordan made very effectively earlier. I find it very plausible that holding nominal rates constant in the face of a productivity shock that raises the real equilibrium interest rate will result in an excess of demand relative to supply. The test of whether or not demand growth is in fact exceeding supply growth is what happens to resource utilization rates. The unemployment rate has been declining by an average of almost 0.4 percentage point a year since the end of 1995 and has declined at least 0.3 percentage point each year, confirming that demand growth has been exceeding supply growth. The Greenbook projects a decline of about 1/2 percentage point by the end of next year to 3.6 percent in the absence of further increases in the federal funds rate. Second, while core inflation remains well contained, I agree with the Greenbook forecast that it will soon begin to rise, reflecting the secondary effects of the recent rise in oil prices, the dissipation or possible reversal of various favorable price shocks that restrained inflation earlier, and the effects of very tight labor markets. Monetary policy tightening today would clearly be preemptive and appropriately so. Third, slowing the economy to trend is unlikely to contain the risk of higher inflation. I very much doubt that stable inflation is compatible with a 4 percent unemployment rate. Slowing the economy to trend may, therefore, be just the first step. It is an important step, but it may not be--indeed, it is unlikely to be--enough. We should therefore be especially determined to slow the economy at least to trend quickly and to be aggressively reactive to increases in core inflation.","[{'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'But to me the incoming data and the forecast, at least at this stage, do not suggest that we should change our approach to policy. The data at the next meeting may suggest that a more hurried pace is warranted; they may not. I think that judgment waits for the next meeting. At this stage I believe we should continue to validate market expectations. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Meyer. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'Finally, the main source of higher measured inflation thus far is current oil prices, which many observers expect to return to a more normal supply-demand dynamic before having a major impact on inflation expectations here.In addition to those three factors, most forecasters and the markets do not signal any imminent outbreak of inflation against the background of a gradual expected tightening on our part.In sum, I would say that tightening at this meeting is probably appropriate.I do not believe, however, that we are behind the curve, and I do not believe that we have lost credibility.In that circumstance, we should continue to validate market expectations and maintain the pressure that comes from clear communication.But to me the incoming data and the forecast, at least at this stage, do not suggest that we should change our approach to policy.The data at the next meeting may suggest that a more hurried pace is warranted; they may not.I think that judgment waits for the next meeting.At this stage I believe we should continue to validate market expectations.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Meyer.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,entailment,utterance
872,876,20000516_35_2,MR. FISHER.,"""My point has been that if we let our share of the primary market expand, we would be collapsing the market for the on-the-run issues in nominal terms.""","We do not purchase on-the-run issues in the secondary market. My point has been that if we let our share of the primary market expand, we would be collapsing the market for the on-the-run issues in nominal terms. That's the only point. We have not been purchasing the on-the-runs. However, we have been suppressing our demand, if you will, vis-a-vis this schedule for decayed securities that are way, way off-the-run. You can see on page 14 that we've been trying more or less to work our way up toward 15 percent all along the coupon curve. In that sense we have been buying issues decayed way, way off-the-run more aggressively; issues decayed in the 7-year area and the 4-year area are way off. So it is in that sense that I'm making the distinction here.","[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': 'So this really should be interpreted as a measure of how long you can follow the policies you are describing? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'Yes, how long we could tread water in this way. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': ""My second question relates to the on-the-run/off-the-run issue. Is there some reason we haven't done that before? It seems like a logical idea. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': ""The question is how to communicate effectively to the market that we were skewing our demand in the secondary market toward the short end.The $178 billion is just the number that was very crudely calculated off a current snapshot, and too much stock shouldn't be put in it.It just gives a sense that there is a sufficiency of securities in the market if we use this formula that could carry us for a while.The $88 billion, rounding to $90 billion, represents the current reserve needs we see over the next seven months.Now, I'm not sure we are going to be comfortable buying $90 billion over the next seven months, but we'll see if we can pick up the pace as we go along.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': 'So this really should be interpreted as a measure of how long you can follow the policies you are describing?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'Yes, how long we could tread water in this way.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': ""My second question relates to the on-the-run/off-the-run issue.Is there some reason we haven't done that before?It seems like a logical idea.""}]",yes,no,,,
873,877,20001219_113_5,MR. HOENIG.,"""And certainly we can wait until then.""","Mr. Chairman, I too would prefer moving now. I think the funds rate is high and the effect has been to slow the economy as intended. In my view a quarter point reduction in the rate now would still leave us with a tight policy, one that continues to slow the economy, and yet it would recognize the risks that we've talked about around the table. I believe it is likely that we will have a conference call and that we will lower rates at that point. And certainly we can wait until then.","[{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': ""If that shows weakness--very low employment growth or a decline in employment--I think there will be a great deal of pressure, probably within the Committee and in the public at large, for us to respond. Quite frankly, I believe it would be better for us to anticipate that development rather than wait until we have such a piece of negative news. As I said before, I think there's ample space for rates to move up and not much space for them to move down. So, I would prefer to see us position ourselves in the middle, as I indicated earlier. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoenig. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': ""In my view, in terms of public attitudes and expectations about our policy moves, there are ample data in hand now to justify easing.That is, I don't think anyone would say that we are making a mistake by acting at this point.On the other hand, probably the single most prominent piece of information we're going to get that bears on this policy issue is the December employment report that will come out at the beginning of January.If that shows weakness--very low employment growth or a decline in employment--I think there will be a great deal of pressure, probably within the Committee and in the public at large, for us to respond.Quite frankly, I believe it would be better for us to anticipate that development rather than wait until we have such a piece of negative news.As I said before, I think there's ample space for rates to move up and not much space for them to move down.So, I would prefer to see us position ourselves in the middle, as I indicated earlier.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoenig.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
874,878,20001219_149_1,VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.,"""He is very consistent.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Why don't we have that problem, no matter which direction we see the risks, every time we move to an asymmetric statement? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': ""That's why I don't like being asymmetric! ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Okay. Sorry! [Laughter] '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I can tell you that the preliminary press statement does not include such a reference.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': ""Okay.The other reason for not moving is because it's awkward to go from a balance of risks toward inflation to a balanced risks statement, which would seem to be out of tune with reality.I would find that troubling.And I've always thought that whenever we reached the point where we had to announce a balance of risks toward weakness and we didn't act, it was going to be a problem for us.It puts the burden on us to explain why we didn't do anything if we saw the balance of risks as weighted toward weakness.Why we didn't act is going to have to be explained, whether we do it in the press statement or in remarks people make subsequently.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""May I ask you a question?Why don't we have that problem, no matter which direction we see the risks, every time we move to an asymmetric statement?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': ""That's why I don't like being asymmetric!""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Okay.Sorry![Laughter]'}]",no,,,,
875,879,20010131_23_3,MR. GOODFRIEND.,"""If one regards the revenue for money creation, which is sometimes called seigniorage, as a tax flow just like any other tax that the government receives on a yearly basis--""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""It doesn't matter how it's done. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'They take in revenue and it could be used for whatever purposes they want. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""But the issue, in the context we're talking about, is that if the debt to the public is down to zero, they have to accumulate private assets. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GOODFRIEND.', 'text': 'May I answer that please? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'Sure! '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'But looking at the disadvantages and problems associated with the other alternatives, I find the argument for at least trying to do that compelling.And I hope we will consider doing it.Thank you.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'In your scheme, what does the Treasury do with our payments to them for their debt?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'They, of course, would be paying interest to us and we simply would be turning around and paying it back to them.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The issue basically is that they have to invest the proceeds from our purchases in something else.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'As I see it, they first sell their securities in the market.We buy them in the market; they are not selling directly to us.So that would be the form in which they would take the funds.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""It doesn't matter how it's done.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'They take in revenue and it could be used for whatever purposes they want.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""But the issue, in the context we're talking about, is that if the debt to the public is down to zero, they have to accumulate private assets.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GOODFRIEND.', 'text': 'May I answer that please?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'Sure!'}]",no,,,,
876,880,20020130_222_1,MR. MCTEER.,"""Maybe we ought to enjoy it instead of worrying too much about it!""",Maybe we ought to enjoy it instead of worrying too much about it! [Laughter],"[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""But now you have something new to factor into your thinking about monetary policy. That doesn't necessarily mean that you need to vote on what that number is and publish the number. But it does mean, as you're thinking about your policy choices, that you need to keep in mind that it is possible for inflation to go too low. Actually, I think it's a compliment to the Committee that you've gotten to that point over the last twenty years. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""That's exactly the point I was trying to make in saying that we need further Committee discussion of this. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""I think an interesting, almost extraordinary point here is that this Committee faces a problem that no FOMC has faced in years.What is it, nearly forty years?Many of you--and some people who aren't here and departed recently--used to say that it would take just one recession to get back to price stability.We had that recession plus a nice burst of productivity growth, and inflation is in the neighborhood of price stability.The Committee for the last twenty years really has not worried about how low inflation should go.But now you have something new to factor into your thinking about monetary policy.That doesn't necessarily mean that you need to vote on what that number is and publish the number.But it does mean, as you're thinking about your policy choices, that you need to keep in mind that it is possible for inflation to go too low.Actually, I think it's a compliment to the Committee that you've gotten to that point over the last twenty years.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""That's exactly the point I was trying to make in saying that we need further Committee discussion of this.""}]",yes,yes,,,
877,881,20020319_62_12,VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.,"""It isn't at all clear to me what would give us the authority to decide--to make the highly political judgment--that pure Treasuries are okay but GNMAs or something else are not.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I associate myself very substantially with what President Santomero has just said. I think the GNMAs are preferable to the repos with foreign sovereign debt collateral for the reasons that he cited. I also would like to remind us of the resource constraint. The limited number of people who can work on this issue have been working flat out since September 11, and they were working pretty hard before that. So I think the first order of business really is that they finish the work on the contingency issues and relax on all of this other material until then, which would probably be a matter of, say, three to six months. At that point I think they should concentrate their efforts on GNMAs. I agree that management of GNMAs would be somewhat more complicated than managing what is in the portfolio now, but it is certainly doable. As President Santomero said, many firms that we supervise do that sort of work very extensively. I also believe that we have to avoid getting into the situation of saying that we will decide which securities are acceptable if they have the full faith and credit of the government of the United States. If the Congress and the President decide that an instrument has the government's full faith and credit, it is not altogether clear to me that, as a creature of the Congress and as an independent central bank, we should second-guess that decision. It isn't at all clear to me what would give us the authority to decide--to make the highly political judgment--that pure Treasuries are okay but GNMAs or something else are not. It is nice that we have been able to deal with pure Treasuries until now. As Don Kohn points out very well, even if deficits continue, the trends are such that we're going to have to make use of securities other than pure Treasuries. I think what the Congress and the President decide has the full faith and credit of the United States is clearly the right place to go. And if they decide that some other kind of credit has the full faith and credit of the United States, we may have to go there, too. Thank you.","[{'speaker': 'MR. SANTOMERO.', 'text': ""If we must act, I guess I'd favor the GNMAs. And as a side bar, there are lots of MBAs out there who would be happy to run that portfolio for us. Given the weakness in the labor market, there are probably plenty available at the moment. Those are my comments. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Vice Chair. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. SANTOMERO.', 'text': ""But this would change spreads and alter the status quo in uncertain ways.I'm not sure that this is an appropriate role for the Federal Reserve to play in world capital markets.In fact, I more or less come to the conclusion that maybe we should slow this effort down.I hesitate to say this.It took us almost a year to get to this point.But the Treasury seems to have shifted its spending outlook, as we indicated, and maybe not enough by the back-of-the envelope calculations.But at least at the moment that has given us some breathing room.And as was mentioned at the outset, the auction credit facility seems to have some promise if we in fact proceed with it.If we must act, I guess I'd favor the GNMAs.And as a side bar, there are lots of MBAs out there who would be happy to run that portfolio for us.Given the weakness in the labor market, there are probably plenty available at the moment.Those are my comments.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Vice Chair.'}]",yes,no,,,
878,882,20021106_52_4,MR. STOCKTON.,"""We're expecting ongoing declines in investment in that sector and growth in capacity that for a second year will be the weakest on record since we have been constructing capacity measures.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': 'We\'ll see parked aircraft brought back from the desert before we see the building of new aircraft. Power plant construction seems to have been revised down; because of the scale of power plants, the construction involves a rather substantial amount of investment. It seems to me that, if we\'re wrong about this assessment on the gloom lifting, then clearly the economy is going to be a good bit slower than we\'d like. Relying on that--""animal spirits"" is what Keynes called it--as the basis of the forecast concerns me. I understand why it is in there, and I don\'t have anything better to offer, but I am very uneasy that that\'s where we are. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': 'Following along from Cathy\'s question, it seems to me that we know about a lot of individual sectors where there\'s really a great deal of retrenchment taking place.Obviously structures are one; we\'re not going to see a boom in structures.It will be quite a while before we will see that sector and others such as air transport, airlines, or aircraft coming back; they are all going to be in a retrenchment phase for a long time.We\'ll see parked aircraft brought back from the desert before we see the building of new aircraft.Power plant construction seems to have been revised down; because of the scale of power plants, the construction involves a rather substantial amount of investment.It seems to me that, if we\'re wrong about this assessment on the gloom lifting, then clearly the economy is going to be a good bit slower than we\'d like.Relying on that--""animal spirits"" is what Keynes called it--as the basis of the forecast concerns me.I understand why it is in there, and I don\'t have anything better to offer, but I am very uneasy that that\'s where we are.'}]",no,,,,
879,883,20021106_206_1,MS. MINEHAN.,"""I'm in favor of what Governor Ferguson, Governor Kohn, and President Moskow said.""","I'm in favor of what Governor Ferguson, Governor Kohn, and President Moskow said. I'd do the work on the Ginnie Maes first and learn from our ACF effort but put it on the shelf. If people have comments on it, fine, submit them. Also, when we put the staff studies out, they do mention an ACF type facility, though nowhere near 137 pages are devoted to it as in the paper we received recently! [Laughter] It is mentioned, so perhaps we'll get some response from those in academia or others on how they see some of those facilities. I think that might be instructive.","[{'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'So given my general responsibility for contingency work, I would be very comfortable taking the CACF off the table at this stage. Again, good work has been done on this; our understanding of it has moved beyond where we were when we put that idea on the table. So in conclusion, I think Ginnie Maes should be where most of the staff work is directed. All the other alternatives I would say can now be delayed for some time. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Minehan. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': ""But I'm worried about all the other competing resource requirements.So I would agree with the suggestion of President Moskow and others to postpone further consideration of the ACF.With respect to the contingency ACF, I think two of you have asked the relevant question.Governor Kohn and others have already suggested an answer, which is that given the general amount of work that has already gone into developing backup facilities, the CACF is not likely to reach a high priority in our thinking.The contingency planning group has made a large investment, both physically and intellectually, in a number of other approaches, including the Lombard facility.So given my general responsibility for contingency work, I would be very comfortable taking the CACF off the table at this stage.Again, good work has been done on this; our understanding of it has moved beyond where we were when we put that idea on the table.So in conclusion, I think Ginnie Maes should be where most of the staff work is directed.All the other alternatives I would say can now be delayed for some time.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Minehan.'}]",yes,no,,,
880,884,20021210_49_8,MR. STOCKTON.,"""But essentially the model doesn't want to push the economy into deflation without combining a number of these different kinds of shocks.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': ""One was the downward adjustment to prices, and an unexpected weakness in aggregate demand was added to it. I have two questions about this. First, if we didn't have the aggregate demand shock but had only the downward shock in prices, what would the deflation scenario look like in terms of its impact on output? Also, one channel of influence on output, of course, would be higher real interest rates as a result of deflation. But are there other channels through which deflation would have effects on output as well? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': 'But the funds obviously are not coming--not entirely anyway-- from other M3 assets.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': 'A lot of them would involve some substitution from RPs in particular.But we think that, on net, there is some attraction from other sources of funds into M3.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': 'Do you have any idea where the funds were coming from to the extent that they were from outside M3 assets?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': 'Not in particular, no.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Moskow.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': ""I had a question about the deflation scenario that you showed in the Greenbook, David.As I understand the scenario, deflation was caused by two factors.One was the downward adjustment to prices, and an unexpected weakness in aggregate demand was added to it.I have two questions about this.First, if we didn't have the aggregate demand shock but had only the downward shock in prices, what would the deflation scenario look like in terms of its impact on output?Also, one channel of influence on output, of course, would be higher real interest rates as a result of deflation.But are there other channels through which deflation would have effects on output as well?""}]",no,,,,
881,885,20030812_156_8,MR. GRAMLICH.,"""[Laughter] So I have that adverse mental association with the whole concept.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support both parts of your recommendation. I think if we did anything other than keep the negative bias today, the funds market would go even crazier, and long rates would back up even more. I just don't see how we can do that. I'm probably the only one here who is not particularly looking forward to the September discussion [laughter] because I'm not sure I see my way through it. I guess I should confess that it's partly because my wife has been telling me for forty years now that I don't communicate particularly well. [Laughter] So I have that adverse mental association with the whole concept. I just find this a very hard issue to address. First, on the statement itself I have expressed my reservations before about adding up or balancing the output risk and the inflation risk. I've always had that problem. Second, I think the phrase ""the probability, though minor, of an unwelcome substantial fall in inflation"" may have served us well a couple of months ago, but as the probability of this substantial fall gets more and more minor, that sentence is going to have to be changed. And I'm not sure how to do that. The third problem is that any time we change anything in this paragraph, even a comma, there is a huge market reaction. The way the market reacts even to minor inflections of what we say scares me. So I think that's a real problem in trying to communicate and be honest about what we think. Along with many of you, I share the reluctance to pre-commit to a future policy course. However, I'm on the side of Governors Bernanke and Kohn in feeling that we probably do have to get into this issue a little in terms of explaining our assessment of the outlook. At some point, the way we do it now is not going to work--and maybe that point has come already--but I just don't know how best to change our approach. This whole process takes place in a fishbowl. So I find the topic very difficult and depressing, and I don't look forward to discussing it. Sorry.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""The markets are going to act in a more stabilizing way even when they don't agree with us, which is fine. But they need to know what we're thinking about in order to do a good job of assessing how the 800-pound gorilla in the money markets views the outlook. So, while I agree that we need to give more thought to it, I haven't given up entirely on trying to do something in terms of how we communicate about the future. Thank you. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Gramlich. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""I also agree with President Poole that it would be very risky and counterproductive to promise to keep rates at a particular level for a certain period of time.But like Governor Bernanke, I think we need to work on how we talk about our assessments and judgments regarding the economy and our objectives going forward, without perhaps being very specific.To the extent that the markets make their judgments about future rates with a more accurate estimate or knowledge of what we're thinking about, we're going to get better feedback from the markets.The markets are going to act in a more stabilizing way even when they don't agree with us, which is fine.But they need to know what we're thinking about in order to do a good job of assessing how the 800-pound gorilla in the money markets views the outlook.So, while I agree that we need to give more thought to it, I haven't given up entirely on trying to do something in terms of how we communicate about the future.Thank you.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Gramlich.'}]",yes,no,,,
882,886,20030916_119_10,MR. STOCKTON.,"""We thought we had solved this problem, but we've been making consistent errors in underforecasting the strength of productivity.""","I think you're absolutely right that one of the biggest differences between our forecast and the consensus forecast is a more optimistic outlook on aggregate supply. A number of you, in fact, have remarked on how optimistic our forecast is. I really don't view it as all that optimistic because the gap is large and it diminishes only very slowly. Now, we could be wrong about that. But if we're wrong, our productivity assumption doesn't necessarily mean that we will be wrong significantly about the output gap going forward, too. It could very well be that, if we're wrong about underlying productivity, we'll see faster employment growth but also less demand going forward because the economy will be generating less potential income expectations going forward. So to be honest, we think we have the risks reasonably balanced around our productivity forecast. But I must say that our statistical filtering models are chomping at the bit to have us move our forecast higher. Our recent pattern of errors would suggest the same thing. We thought we had solved this problem, but we've been making consistent errors in underforecasting the strength of productivity.","[{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""Compared with most forecasters, you are still right up there with Genetski.com in terms of your growth expectations, but you have diminishing inflation and less progress on the unemployment side. Clearly, it seems to me that you have a higher productivity number embedded in your forecast than the market does. That fundamental difference that we're talking about here seems to be driving the market's expectations for when we're going to raise interest rates. I'm wondering when a better shared sense of that will occur, if it happens at all. What kind of time frame do you think we might be working with here? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': 'In fact, I think implicitly in our forecast we assume that there actually will be a little further decline in inflation expectations.So we think the change in inflation is going to be modest but more likely to be down than up.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'Thank you.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Moskow.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, Ned Gramlich asked a good portion of my question, so I'll pass now.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Minehan.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""This is coming at the same questions we've been bouncing around here from a little different angle.Compared with most forecasters, you are still right up there with Genetski.com in terms of your growth expectations, but you have diminishing inflation and less progress on the unemployment side.Clearly, it seems to me that you have a higher productivity number embedded in your forecast than the market does.That fundamental difference that we're talking about here seems to be driving the market's expectations for when we're going to raise interest rates.I'm wondering when a better shared sense of that will occur, if it happens at all.What kind of time frame do you think we might be working with here?""}]",no,,,,
883,887,20040128_114_3,VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.,"""So I was just going to ask this complicating question of you, Governor Ferguson: What does greater flexibility in assessing the risks mean in terms of which direction you want to see flexibility?""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': ""I think there's a practical issue here in that it's very difficult for us as a Committee to back away from providing that forward-looking insight into policy. I think it would be viewed by the markets and by the public as a big step backwards no matter what we do with the minutes or even with our individual forecasts. When we get to the discussion of the minutes and the other communication issues, I think we can formulate a package. So I'll hold off on the rest of my comments until then. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'Vice Chairman Geithner. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': ""If there are last minute changes to the draft statement, which I think was a possibility mentioned by Vincent, those addenda should be sent out as rapidly as possible to the members of the Committee.I do think this process will require more of our time as a Committee, which I'm sure is fine with all of us, and I think we should recognize that prospect, in terms of the discussion of the specifics of the statement at our meetings.In terms of the nature of the forward look at policy, I agree with what Don Kohn said, but I'd add another point.I think there's a practical issue here in that it's very difficult for us as a Committee to back away from providing that forward-looking insight into policy.I think it would be viewed by the markets and by the public as a big step backwards no matter what we do with the minutes or even with our individual forecasts.When we get to the discussion of the minutes and the other communication issues, I think we can formulate a package.So I'll hold off on the rest of my comments until then.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'Vice Chairman Geithner.'}]",no,,,,
884,888,20040128_185_7,MR. GRAMLICH.,"""I don't put down a coherent forecast when I prepare for our meetings.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': ""But the more I thought about it, the more I thought it would raise more questions than it would answer. We would get into the business of trying to explain or trying to qualify what all these numbers meant. And that would not be likely to turn out to be a productive exercise; or at least, as I tried to go through that exercise for the moment, I couldn't come up with a satisfactory way of doing all that. So I would put this idea on the back burner. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'Governor Gramlich. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. SANTOMERO.', 'text': ""It takes away from what people should be focusing on as our responsibility.Moving from two to eight forecast releases each year with our thirteen staffs working on the projection estimates would take up a lot of time.And explaining our forecasts on an ongoing basis--discussing their accuracy or inaccuracy--doesn't particularly make sense to me.So from my perspective twice a year for the Monetary Policy Reports is fine.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'President Stern.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': ""I'm not in favor of changing the way we currently deal with the forecasts.When the idea first surfaced, I thought it was intriguing.But the more I thought about it, the more I thought it would raise more questions than it would answer.We would get into the business of trying to explain or trying to qualify what all these numbers meant.And that would not be likely to turn out to be a productive exercise; or at least, as I tried to go through that exercise for the moment, I couldn't come up with a satisfactory way of doing all that.So I would put this idea on the back burner.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'Governor Gramlich.'}]",no,,,,
885,889,20040316_142_3,MR. SANTOMERO.,"""First, I can support your recommendation, although I had a marginal preference for the wording ""about equals.""""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I have just a couple of points. First, I can support your recommendation, although I had a marginal preference for the wording ""about equals."" I think ""about equals"" is shaded somewhat to the left of ""appears almost equal."" That is to say, we have lots of words in the English language, and ""about equals"" is an epsilon to the right of ""almost equals."" My guess is that we could come up with another word if we wanted to. We could do this ad infinitum on a scale between ""really equal"" and ""sort of equal."" [Laughter] So my preference on the wording is not a strong one. Let me take this opportunity, however, to make a comment about the Bluebook. One of the changes this time in the structure of the Bluebook was the elimination of the three options on changes in the funds rate. I think that made absolute sense, given where we are, but I also believe it could cause us a problem down the road. Other things being equal, I would prefer to have the three options presented, and we can dismiss them if we don't find them relevant. I say that because I can see a world sometime in the future, perhaps with a different Chairman, where there's a minority view for either increasing or decreasing rates and the opportunity to support such a move is made difficult if it's not in the Bluebook. This is not to take away from the obvious decision we're making this time. But as a general matter, I think that it makes some sense to leave that structure in the Bluebook and spend the extra page on it.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""Now, a lot of that reflects a projected decline in energy prices, and perhaps it's not unwelcome, but the total is expected to fall. And finally, from my perspective, in a risk-management sense, any decline in inflation from current levels--if it's more than a tenth or so--is more unwelcome than any increase. I think inflation is at such a low level that a decline has more welfare costs potentially over time than a rise. I don't expect much to happen, but in my cost-benefit analysis, the downside risks get a little more weight than the upside risks. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Santomero. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""So I'd prefer to be more certain that actual inflation has stopped falling before I can be convinced that the outlook calls for moving to balance on the inflation risks.My second point is that I think we all expect total inflation to decline relative to last year.At least the FOMC members projected inflation of 1 to 11/4 percent this year, which is about 1/2 point less than it was in 2003.Now, a lot of that reflects a projected decline in energy prices, and perhaps it's not unwelcome, but the total is expected to fall.And finally, from my perspective, in a risk-management sense, any decline in inflation from current levels--if it's more than a tenth or so--is more unwelcome than any increase.I think inflation is at such a low level that a decline has more welfare costs potentially over time than a rise.I don't expect much to happen, but in my cost-benefit analysis, the downside risks get a little more weight than the upside risks.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Santomero.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,,
886,890,20040504_178_6,MR. KOHN.,"""Inflation is lower, and I think the output gap is disappearing but is disappearing slowly.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support your recommendation and all aspects of it. Like President Minehan, I'd be concerned that, if we just dropped the last sentence, the markets would overreact if not immediately then over the intermeeting period. As data come in, they'd start to build in a 1994-type tightening, which is what I think they're looking for and what a lot of the discussion is about in the markets. My personal view--or at least my best guess--is that we won't need to tighten like that. Inflation is lower, and I think the output gap is disappearing but is disappearing slowly. So not signaling the markets that expectations of a 1994-type tightening would be the wrong--and allowing those wrong expectations to get built into the markets--would give us, I think, more trouble than dealing with this word ""measured."" So I believe that we need some way of indicating that our best guess is that the firming, when it comes, will be gradual. I thought the reaction to your testimony, Mr. Chairman, was perfect because you dropped ""patience,"" everybody noticed it, and rates reacted a little but not a lot. And you balanced that by providing a somewhat more detailed outlook. You said that you didn't expect inflation to rise and you talked about the downside risk that you discussed earlier. Well, we're not doing that here; we're not giving a detailed outlook in our statement. So I think the suggestion of a moderate and measured pace of tightening is a way of substituting for a detailed forecast in an effort to moderate the market's reaction to our statement. Thank you.","[{'speaker': 'MS. PIANALTO.', 'text': 'I have to admit that, when I first read the ""measured pace"" language in the Bluebook, I was concerned that it would be interpreted by markets as indicating that we had a predetermined path for moving rates up and that we would be doing it based on a time schedule rather than reacting to information about the economy. And as I said earlier, I was leaning toward wanting the flexibility to react more quickly if the data continue to come in stronger, especially the inflation numbers. I think the new language that Vincent proposed, ""is likely to be measured,"" does give us the added flexibility. So I support your recommendation. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kohn. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': ""[Laughter] So I'm comfortable with it, and I support the recommendation.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': ""I, too, support the recommendation.I think the language does give us adequate flexibility at least for the next two or three months, as best I can read the situation.And I'm hard pressed to suggest any better alternative.So I support your proposal.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Pianalto.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. PIANALTO.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I also support your recommendation.I have to admit that, when I first read the ""measured pace"" language in the Bluebook, I was concerned that it would be interpreted by markets as indicating that we had a predetermined path for moving rates up and that we would be doing it based on a time schedule rather than reacting to information about the economy.And as I said earlier, I was leaning toward wanting the flexibility to react more quickly if the data continue to come in stronger, especially the inflation numbers.I think the new language that Vincent proposed, ""is likely to be measured,"" does give us the added flexibility.So I support your recommendation.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kohn.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
887,891,20041110_161_6,MS. BIES.,"""If the word ""measured"" continues to be part of our statement, I think, as others have said, it will end up tying our hands.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support your recommendation, including the language, for this meeting, but I do share some of the concerns that several of my colleagues around the table have expressed. I think some of the language may not be seen as particularly consistent with our policy of improved communications. If the words are seen as boilerplate every time, in a way it may take away from our flexibility going forward. So at the December meeting, I'd like us to look at some alternatives. If the word ""measured"" continues to be part of our statement, I think, as others have said, it will end up tying our hands. Another part of the statement is the second sentence, in which we've talked about this ""robust underlying growth in productivity."" We saw in the '90s that we moved to a different level of long-term productivity growth, but as I said in my comments, we may be in a part of this business cycle or stage of the recovery when productivity growth is going to look weaker. We need to think about how that is worded. I think that language could raise some questions about what productivity we are focusing on--the long-term versus the cyclical--if productivity turns out to be weakening, as the forecast in the Greenbook lays out. So as the recovery continues to move forward, there are aspects of the statement that we have to be careful about in terms of leaving in some of the language for such a long period of time. We need to think through and begin to anticipate prior to a meeting how to make those kinds of changes in order to give us flexibility.","[{'speaker': 'MR. OLSON.', 'text': ""I don't think we can go back to communicating in the fashion that we were doing even a year ago. I think we have set an expectation that we will make a real effort to communicate some of our underlying sense of what's happening with the economy, and I think we will be called on to continue that trend. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Guynn. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUYNN.', 'text': 'I support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman, including the language. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Bies. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. OLSON.', 'text': ""I also support both parts of the recommendation.With respect to the statement, I also think it is appropriate at this time to make as little change in the statement as is necessary, for a couple of reasons.First of all, the markets understand that the absence of change is not a result of inattention; they know it is the net result of a great deal of thought and consideration.So any change whatsoever is interpreted, and occasionally over-interpreted, and I don't think we are at the point yet where we need to open that possibility.With respect to communication in the future, I'm with Governor Bernanke.I don't think we can go back to communicating in the fashion that we were doing even a year ago.I think we have set an expectation that we will make a real effort to communicate some of our underlying sense of what's happening with the economy, and I think we will be called on to continue that trend.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Guynn.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUYNN.', 'text': 'I support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman, including the language.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Bies.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,,
888,892,20060629_10_3,MR. KOS.,"""There might be something to be said for that.""","From a market perspective, that is the most interesting question. I recall an exchange that President Fisher and I had a couple of meetings ago, when we were talking about the zloty and the Icelandic krona and whether that was sort of a precursor, perhaps the beginning of a longer phase of a downscaling of risk. There might be something to be said for that. We were in a lengthy period when investors were reaching for yield, and I'm not sure that two months is going to cleanse the system.","[{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""The hedge fund and mutual fund people were not pointing to uncertainty about U.S. monetary policy so much as uncertainty about monetary policy worldwide. But the real reason was a changed appreciation of what the worldwide economy was doing, the need for tightening because of the effect of rising growth and potential inflationary effects. Some of them continue to be concerned that enough wringing-out hasn't yet happened, that more risk-taking is still out there. You were talking about the bears and the bulls, and I'm just wondering where you are. Where do you think the balance of risk is here? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""I just want to continue with the first question that you posed to Dino.What you said in your presentation, Dino, is very close to what people have been telling me about how they are seeing the market.Some people at the top of hedge funds and mutual funds have said that market participants saw signs of overreaching everywhere in the winter and early spring.Then there was a period--and perhaps your charts are pointing to early May--when a good deal of retrenchment was going on.The hedge fund and mutual fund people were not pointing to uncertainty about U.S. monetary policy so much as uncertainty about monetary policy worldwide.But the real reason was a changed appreciation of what the worldwide economy was doing, the need for tightening because of the effect of rising growth and potential inflationary effects.Some of them continue to be concerned that enough wringing-out hasn't yet happened, that more risk-taking is still out there.You were talking about the bears and the bulls, and I'm just wondering where you are.Where do you think the balance of risk is here?""}]",yes,no,,,
889,893,20070509_9_2,CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.,"""We need a vote to ratify domestic open operations.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': ""A disproportionate share of U.S. foreign activity is Europe-oriented, so it's a bigger share than would be suggested by the European share of global GDP. That factor is definitely helping to support our earnings. I have never seen any data on that. We'll look into it to see if there's anything, but I'm not hopeful. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'Thanks, Bill. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': 'Apparently, the FICO score is pretty important because the losses for alt-A are a fraction of those on subprimes.But there are data that show some spillover.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': ""My second question regards S&P earnings.Is there a way to split out what comes from the rest of the world and what comes from the United States?I know it would be analytically difficult, but I'm just wondering if there is a disparity between the two in what drops to the bottom line.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': ""I'm sure there is a disparity between the two.I do not know of any way to break that out clearly.One factor--the weakness of the dollar versus the euro--is definitely helping to boost corporate earnings.A disproportionate share of U.S. foreign activity is Europe-oriented, so it's a bigger share than would be suggested by the European share of global GDP.That factor is definitely helping to support our earnings.I have never seen any data on that.We'll look into it to see if there's anything, but I'm not hopeful.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'Thanks, Bill.'}]",no,,,,
890,894,20070628_153_4,MR. KOHN.,"""We have moderate growth; low core inflation, which is not rising and could possibly be falling, suggesting an underlying balance of demand and potential supply that is in pretty good shape.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KROSZNER.', 'text': ""We don't know the details of what we will get tomorrow, but there is nothing here to condition our expectation any differently from what we had before. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Okay. We are well advanced in our deliberations here. We heard from Vincent yesterday on the action in the statement, and so we are prepared for the go-round. Governor Kohn. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WILCOX.', 'text': 'We did get the upward revision to core PCE prices that we had been expecting on the basis of the revision to the PPI for medical services.Core PPI was revised up from 2.2 to 2.4 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KROSZNER.', 'text': 'Core PCE.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WILCOX.', 'text': 'Excuse me.The core PCE price index for the first quarter was revised up, exactly as we had been expecting on the basis of the PPI revision.Thank you.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Are there any questions?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'May I ask, Bill, whether there has been any reaction in financial markets to this?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': 'I think that people are taking this in stride.The first quarter is old news.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KROSZNER.', 'text': ""So, on your estimate, what we will be seeing tomorrow when we get the details on prices will be in line with what you have been expecting?There was nothing here to make you change your view of that?MR.WILCOX.We don't know the details of what we will get tomorrow, but there is nothing here to condition our expectation any differently from what we had before.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Okay.We are well advanced in our deliberations here.We heard from Vincent yesterday on the action in the statement, and so we are prepared for the go-round.Governor Kohn.'}]",no,,,,
891,895,20070807_151_26,CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.,"""I see some nodding.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Moskow. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'I just have another objection to taking out the word ""predominant."" I don\'t think the sentence makes any sense if you take it out. [Laughter] You have to put something in. You cannot say that it is our only problem. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MISHKIN.', 'text': 'Two is how the media might read whether we are reacting to the distress in the financial markets.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MADIGAN.', 'text': 'Well, as I said earlier, it\'s a little hard to judge market reactions right now, given the flux in financial markets.That said, I do think that the introduction of ""downside risks,"" as an explicit phrase in the statement will obviously not be overlooked by market participants, [laughter] and I think that they will see it as at least some slight shift in the Committee\'s body English.With regard to ""predominant,"" that\'s just another step in the same direction--and I think maybe even a bigger shift.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MISHKIN.', 'text': 'Right.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': 'I think it is a bigger shift.I think if the first is one unit, the second is maybe two units in terms of how far you go.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Moskow.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'I just have another objection to taking out the word ""predominant.""I don\'t think the sentence makes any sense if you take it out.[Laughter] You have to put something in.You cannot say that it is our only problem.'}]",no,,,,
892,896,20070918_217_2,MR. LACKER.,"""So they would have to act to make the rate they set determined by this process.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. ALVAREZ.', 'text': ""Well, the auction credit facility doesn't require the approval of the Reserve Banks. The Board is required to set the rules for lending under 10B, which is what we'll explain in the program. However, the interest rate on loans under the credit facility would, of course, be established by the Reserve Banks and reviewed and determined by the Board. So depending on the governance of the different Reserve Banks, it may be that the interest rate that is the result of the auction would be something that the board of directors would want to recommend. Our proposal, as you'll hear it later on, will be that the boards of directors adopt the process rather than a particular interest rate, and that would allow the auction to continue over time. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Lacker.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': ""Another question about governance.Maybe this isn't the appropriate time, but do you envision that approval by Reserve Bank boards of directors would be required for this facility?Is that part of the governance, or is that maybe a question for later?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Go ahead.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ALVAREZ.', 'text': ""Well, the auction credit facility doesn't require the approval of the Reserve Banks.The Board is required to set the rules for lending under 10B, which is what we'll explain in the program.However, the interest rate on loans under the credit facility would, of course, be established by the Reserve Banks and reviewed and determined by the Board.So depending on the governance of the different Reserve Banks, it may be that the interest rate that is the result of the auction would be something that the board of directors would want to recommend.Our proposal, as you'll hear it later on, will be that the boards of directors adopt the process rather than a particular interest rate, and that would allow the auction to continue over time.""}]",no,,,,
893,897,20080318_21_2,MR. DUDLEY.,"""It will be interesting now with the reintroduction of the swap.""","It's high. It will be interesting now with the reintroduction of the swap. You know, the ECB will essentially have a noncompetitive auction with us on this coming Monday. It will be interesting to see how that affects the TAF auction results.","[{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': ""Now that I've made you feel better, I have just a very simple question. On the TAF, has the portion of foreign participation gone down? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': ""I don't think there has really been a shift. There's no meaningful shift. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': ""So it's still pretty much where it was. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': ""Yes, I just want to emphasize that what we have done so far has had this separability about it, and except for the brief period in late August last year, it has not threatened our ability to manage the federal funds rate in a way we thought appropriate for the whole economy.If we don't cure this problem soon, it will become visible; it will become well known; it will get priced in, and to some extent it will overtake this Committee's deliberations in the sense that it rather than our target rate will run the fed funds rate.I think that would be a fairly dangerous outcome, and it just strikes me that this is incredibly urgent.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'You make a good point, President Lacker.President Fisher.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': ""More mundane questions, but by the way, Bill, thank you for your service.Everybody agrees with what the Vice Chairman said, and I hope you took note of it.Now that I've made you feel better, I have just a very simple question.On the TAF, has the portion of foreign participation gone down?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': ""I don't think there has really been a shift.There's no meaningful shift.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': ""So it's still pretty much where it was.""}]",yes,no,,,
894,898,20080916_110_1,CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.,"""Just on the issue of trading soft, though, the October-December has also come down, and there is certainly some shift in the actual policy expectation.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': ""The indication of sentiment is important, is it not, in terms of expectations from the population that you're talking about? The signaling of our direction would be important here? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': ""Well, I think the market participants would gain some comfort to the extent that the Federal Reserve as an institution indicates concern about what's going on in the financial markets. But in some ways the Desk has already signaled that concern by its intervention, so I'm not sure that additional indications are needed. But in the language you might want to indicate to market participants that, if things were to materially worsen in the financial markets, the Committee might revisit the issue of where the federal funds rate should be. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': ""So I think the consensus view still in the marketplace is that the Fed probably will not cut rates today.That would be a disappointment to a degree because there's some probability placed on the idea that the Fed might do 50, but that's how I would interpret what's priced into the markets today.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Fisher.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': ""Could I ask for a little clarification here?The indication of sentiment is important, is it not, in terms of expectations from the population that you're talking about?The signaling of our direction would be important here?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': ""Well, I think the market participants would gain some comfort to the extent that the Federal Reserve as an institution indicates concern about what's going on in the financial markets.But in some ways the Desk has already signaled that concern by its intervention, so I'm not sure that additional indications are needed.But in the language you might want to indicate to market participants that, if things were to materially worsen in the financial markets, the Committee might revisit the issue of where the federal funds rate should be.""}]",no,,,,
895,899,20081216_279_2,CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.,"""We were probably going to do that as a trend, maybe not day to day, but it has some of the flavor of increasing the base.""","Right. We were probably going to do that as a trend, maybe not day to day, but it has some of the flavor of increasing the base. So that is one just observation. On the TALF, we have added a presentation today from Bill Dudley and Pat Parkinson.","[{'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': 'Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Jeff, I just want to make a couple of comments. A very small one is that, in an early draft, instead of saying ""entail the use of the Federal Reserve\'s balance sheet"" we had ""entail increasing the size of the Federal Reserve\'s balance sheet."" We thought that might not be appropriate because things go on and off. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': 'Other things pull it down. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': ""This is somewhat short of the language you used yesterday, which admittedly might not be appropriate for the directive.But I wrote the language down, and it is that the Board would bring programs to the FOMC for review and discussion.I like the sentence that is added in the sense that it is a step in the right direction toward your vision of a collaborative body seeking consensus on these issues.But I am afraid that this language won't do much to dispel questions that have arisen in the press about our governance cohesion and decisionmaking.So I personally would prefer to go as far as we could in that direction.Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Jeff, I just want to make a couple of comments.A very small one is that, in an early draft, instead of saying ""entail the use of the Federal Reserve\'s balance sheet"" we had ""entail increasing the size of the Federal Reserve\'s balance sheet.""We thought that might not be appropriate because things go on and off.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': 'Other things pull it down.'}]",yes,no,,,
896,900,19770719_37_3,CHAIRMAN BURNS.,"""That's the best contribution they can make now.""","I don't agree with that. I think Treasury ought to keep quiet for awhile. That's the best contribution they can make now. In fact, I advised them that way this morning at a breakfast. Well, this isn't easy, gentlemen. You know, we all would like to see the world stand still--let's not kid ourselves, that is a bias that everyone has. And the world will not accommodate us. We're paying a price now in exchange markets for the policies we have been pursuing: The rate of inflation has intensified; people read the newspapers, they know what has happened to our balance of trade; they read about the minimum wage and labor legislation and the way it's moving on Capitol Hill; they know that the budget deficit next fiscal year will, according to present projections and plans, be higher than this year. Now markets, I think, are behaving quite rationally. We wish they didn't behave that way, just as the Germans would, sure. But my guess is that, to influence the market at all perceptibly, we would have to move on a very large scale. The time for that may come, [but] I don't think it has come yet. And massive intervention may be necessary later on, but not as of today.","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': 'There is an acceptance by the Japanese and the Germans and the Swiss that their [currencies] ought to appreciate. Their concern is that appreciation does reflect something fundamental and not [just] people talking the rates up or down. I think that is where their main concern lies. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARDEE.', 'text': ""Probably a statement by the Treasury that it's satisfied with the rate movement would help a heck of a lot more than any intervention. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I agree with that '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""That's what I'm addressing myself to.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. EASTBURN.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, could I ask a factual question?Alan, how does the amount of intervention by all countries in this current situation compare with other situations since we've had trouble with the British?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOLMES.', 'text': ""I would think that the gross amounts are not far different than from other periods.There have been other periods where it's been even greater.And you had a different composition of intervention when the Japanese used to be very heavy interveners.They have really refrained and intervened only once, I think quite heavily, in I don't know how many weeks, but in a number of weeks.There is an acceptance by the Japanese and the Germans and the Swiss that their [currencies] ought to appreciate.Their concern is that appreciation does reflect something fundamental and not [just] people talking the rates up or down.I think that is where their main concern lies.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARDEE.', 'text': ""Probably a statement by the Treasury that it's satisfied with the rate movement would help a heck of a lot more than any intervention.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I agree with that'}]",yes,no,,,
897,901,19770816_376_3,CHAIRMAN BURNS.,"""I think that's what Mr. Morris meant to say--""","I don't think Mr. Morris was saying that. I think all that Mr. Morris meant to say was that if bankers are tempted to, as some of them will be, to borrow at the discount window because the discount rate is low relative to this or that market rate, this is something that Mr. Morris's Bank will be aware of, will watch, and this is something that in every period when such a discrepancy arises, the Federal Reserve Banks around the country do more or less well and more or less systematically. I think that's what Mr. Morris meant to say--","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""No, I think the wider the spread you have between the discount rate and the federal funds rate, if you have the gap where the discount rate is lower, obviously it's going to be very attractive to banks to come and use the window. And therefore, in that kind of a context, we'd have to administer the window a little more rigorously than you otherwise would. I'm saying that I'd be willing to do that for another month or so until I can see which way--until I can see some resolution of the conflict between the real world and the monetary world. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""I think Philip's got a point there. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JACKSON.', 'text': 'But do we adjust the concept of the discount window to suit our whims or is that a constant criterion that we use at the moment. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""I don't understand what you mean, Phil.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JACKSON.', 'text': ""I got the distinct impression that you were tougher on the banks and wouldn't allow them to get credit--on some of the banks--as a consequence of your changed attitude about monetary policy.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""No, I think the wider the spread you have between the discount rate and the federal funds rate, if you have the gap where the discount rate is lower, obviously it's going to be very attractive to banks to come and use the window.And therefore, in that kind of a context, we'd have to administer the window a little more rigorously than you otherwise would.I'm saying that I'd be willing to do that for another month or so until I can see which way--until I can see some resolution of the conflict between the real world and the monetary world.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""I think Philip's got a point there.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JACKSON.', 'text': 'But do we adjust the concept of the discount window to suit our whims or is that a constant criterion that we use at the moment.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,ambiguous,
898,902,19770816_490_16,MR. COYNE.,"""So it seemed to be just a perfectly legitimate inquiry which was satisfied.""","The request originally came from the New York financial desk. The editors there thought it would be a good idea to find out what the status of the 1972 minutes was. He had in mind the article [that] appeared in Fortune. So he asked the Washington bureau [of the New York Times]--that simple--to find out what the status of the minutes was. The reporter that was assigned to it was Bob Hershey. He drafted the letter; first he called us to find out what the procedures were. We told him what the procedure was, so he drafted the letter, which this gentlemen, Herbers, signed only because of his position as an editor at the Washington bureau. The response went back. The request was denied originally. Hershey happened to be on vacation at the time, and when he returned, he found the denial there. He, at the time, was getting ready to transfer to London, where he is now. He was under pressure to do some kind of a column for the Times; this last week he happened to run into [former Federal Reserve] Governor Holland at church one Sunday and asked him about it, and then filed his appeal. He subsequently wrote a column on the subject, which did appear in the Times about a month or so ago, early July, and the Times seemed up to this point to have lost interest ever since that story appeared. But as Mr. O'Connell pointed out, although they indicated to me that they didn't want to pursue it any further, anything that happens could affect their decision. So it seemed to be just a perfectly legitimate inquiry which was satisfied.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Mr. Kimbrel, you had a question, I believe. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KIMBREL.', 'text': 'Simply, Mr. Chairman, to the background environment in which this question comes. Is it one of openness and fairness or is it with some ulterior motive, or do you detect any--I guess a reading of the background from which it springs. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Well, there is very little uncertainty about that. The request came originally--Joe, do you want to recite the history of that request, and then what the New York Times fellow did? '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""And unless we recognize that and try to think clearly about that, we may not reach the sort of decision to which we always aspire, namely, a decision that is impartial, that is objective, that is not subject to political use or political abuse.That's all I want to say on the subject at this time.And I probably will have more to say later on.But now, perhaps, before we turn to a discussion, it might be desirable to put questions to Mr. O'Connell or possibly to me in so far as I'm capable of dealing with them.Mr. Kimbrel, you had a question, I believe.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KIMBREL.', 'text': 'Simply, Mr. Chairman, to the background environment in which this question comes.Is it one of openness and fairness or is it with some ulterior motive, or do you detect any--I guess a reading of the background from which it springs.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Well, there is very little uncertainty about that.The request came originally--Joe, do you want to recite the history of that request, and then what the New York Times fellow did?'}]",yes,no,,,
899,903,19771018_497_17,MR. MORRIS.,"""Now this may conceivably be the exception, that this bulge is one that we won't regret, that this bulge may, as Steve suggests, be over.""","But I've been asking myself the question, can the economy--is it strong enough to tolerate the prescription I've made? I think it is, in part because I think the thrift institutions are somewhat less sensitive to movements in short-term rates than they were in '73 and '69. But looking back to common earlier periods when we had these bulges, I find some common characteristics, Mr. Chairman. I'm taking advantage of my nine years sitting around this table, and these are the common characteristics. First, the Committee never understood why the bulge happened. The staff did not forecast it. However, the staff did forecast that in subsequent months the bulge would be eliminated; if not eliminated, at least we'd return to a lower rate of growth. Second common characteristic was the fact that the Committee agreed that the economy was not too strong, that we had a lot of slack in the System. And in fact, looking back to '68, the Committee was concerned about overkill, as you recall, the 10 percent surcharge and so on. We have that common characteristic. We're convinced that the economy is not too strong, certainly. Third, the Committee comforted itself during these bulge periods with the degree to which it had moved interest rates. You know, I think Mr. Partee has taken comfort in the move we've made recently. We did move interest rates sharply in '68, and we moved them sharply in '72. You see, the problem was that we didn't move them fast enough. The fourth characteristic of these bulges is that, a year later, the Committee agrees that [our slow reaction to] the bulge was a mistake, that we should have moved more promptly. Now this may conceivably be the exception, that this bulge is one that we won't regret, that this bulge may, as Steve suggests, be over. I find those comforting thoughts, but on the basis of past experience, I don't feel capable of giving them a high degree of probability. So I think this Committee has to continue to move on interest rate policy until we reach a level--when we have some actual evidence--that will bring rates of growth that we all believe are excessive under control. And that's why I think the federal funds prescription of B is inadequate at the moment.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""Except that, given the record of the past seven months, to constrain us to a move of a 1/4 [point] I think is inadequate. I don't think the evidence suggests that we've hit a level of the funds rate which is conducive to getting the growth in the aggregates under control. So I would suggest a federal funds range of 6-1/2 to 7, with the Manager instructed to move to 6-3/4 next week. Now I grant you, this decision would be a lot easier if the economy were booming. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""It not only would be easier; I think you'd have to show of hands in that direction. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""Well, Mr. Chairman, I can't buy the federal funds range specification of alternative B.I think we have to make a decision today whether to stand on the status quo, which I think is what alternative B is, or whether we ought to move toward more restraint.I come out--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""Alternative B does permit a little additional restraint.And if your feelings about the bulge that you expressed earlier were justified, that's the way we would be moving.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""Except that, given the record of the past seven months, to constrain us to a move of a 1/4 [point] I think is inadequate.I don't think the evidence suggests that we've hit a level of the funds rate which is conducive to getting the growth in the aggregates under control.So I would suggest a federal funds range of 6-1/2 to 7, with the Manager instructed to move to 6-3/4 next week.Now I grant you, this decision would be a lot easier if the economy were booming.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""It not only would be easier; I think you'd have to show of hands in that direction.""}]",yes,yes,utterance,entailment,utterance
900,904,19771115_162_1,MR. PARTEE.,"""It's not usually a case where you're moving in one direction and then another; why, that really is more sensitive, in a way, than the meeting itself.""","It's not usually a case where you're moving in one direction and then another; why, that really is more sensitive, in a way, than the meeting itself.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""Now, between meetings, we at times have changed our instructions, and we'll have that option. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Well, that's one of the problems. I suppose, Tom, a supplementary instruction--of the kind that we have had sometimes in the past--will have to be communicated immediately under this same court decision. Is that right? ""}, {'speaker': ""MR. O'CONNELL."", 'text': ""I believe that the court's opinion contemplates that to constitute a substantive action of the Committee, amending its earlier directive, and must require it to be published. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""Well, I don't think we ought to try to prejudge them.Let's see how our own thinking develops.My own at the moment is that if we have to publish on December 1, it's not really terrible.It would have been a lag of 15 days.It's not a case of immediate publication.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Well, the answer is we will have to publish what [we do] today.But we will still have the option of molding what we do at the December meeting.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': ""Well, we also will have the option of a supplementary instruction.Now, between meetings, we at times have changed our instructions, and we'll have that option.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Well, that's one of the problems.I suppose, Tom, a supplementary instruction--of the kind that we have had sometimes in the past--will have to be communicated immediately under this same court decision.Is that right?""}, {'speaker': ""MR. O'CONNELL."", 'text': ""I believe that the court's opinion contemplates that to constitute a substantive action of the Committee, amending its earlier directive, and must require it to be published.""}]",yes,no,,,
901,905,19780117_345_1,MR. PARTEE.,"""You might expect that we would get M1 growth of as much as 10 percent in the quarter.""","You might expect that we would get M1 growth of as much as 10 percent in the quarter. It may be less than that but the odds will be in the direction of a high number. On M2, although Paul was talking about overshooting, I find that in the fourth quarter--that is, from September to December--the annual rate of increase was under 7 percent. Now, a lot of people have identified M2 growth roughly with nominal GNP growth. That certainly wouldn't hold for a quarter, but I think if you've got nominal GNP running around 12 and M2 running around 7, say, for an extended period, that would certainly indicate future difficulty for the economy that we would be bringing about. I don't see that we are over-utilizing our resources or that the prospects for a boom are so strong that that kind of crunch policy is called for at this time. To sum it up my view would be that we ought to have a money market directive because of the great importance of the interest rate level at this particular juncture, so we might as well be forthright and say that the range is 6-3/4 percent for a bottom and I wouldn't want to go over 7 percent for the top, with a 6-3/4 ""midpoint."" And I would accept the idea that under those circumstances we could perhaps reduce the range for M1 to 5 points, to 3 to 8 percent, although [given] where we start out--at the bottom of our federal funds rate range--the lower numbers on those aggregates don't mean much because we're not going to ease unless we have a special meeting of the Committee or a wire from the Chairman or something like that. So again, I would take 6-3/4 to 7 percent, with a midpoint of 6-3/4 and a money market directive with aggregates ranges of 3 to 8 and 5 to 9 for M1 and M2 [respectively].","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""There's a lot more difference between 6-3/4 and 7 than there is, say, between 5 and 5-3/4 or something like that because we're in such a sensitive state. I also would like to point out that some of the numbers that have been floated around indicate on the aggregates really quite a restrictive policy if in fact we have a 12 percent nominal GNP. Was it 12 percent nominal GNP, Steve? Is that what you said? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Yes. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I think we have set in stage forces that may weaken [economic activity in] the second half of the year, particularly in the housing and mortgage area.And I would say that the rate structure is still in a very sensitive state in any event.That is, to me at this particular point and assuming there isn't a change in Regulation Q, I think the Committee needs to assume no change over the next month.There could be one, but it's a hard thing to bring about.There's quite a difference between a 6-3/4 and a 7 percent funds rate.There's a lot more difference between 6-3/4 and 7 than there is, say, between 5 and 5-3/4 or something like that because we're in such a sensitive state.I also would like to point out that some of the numbers that have been floated around indicate on the aggregates really quite a restrictive policy if in fact we have a 12 percent nominal GNP.Was it 12 percent nominal GNP, Steve?Is that what you said?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Yes.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,utterance
902,906,19780228_271_4,MR. PARTEE.,"""And there the problem is to convince them rather than just to assert it.""","Well, there are a lot of them in the Street and among the monetarists and even in academic circles. On M3, I would be sympathetic with Bob Mayo=s point of view, except that I don=t really believe that the House Banking Committee is the group to tell that growth will be a lot less unless we can get an increase in Regulation Q ceilings. I think it would just cause trouble for the House Banking Committee, whereas the person that has to be told that sits in an office in another building in town. And there the problem is to convince them rather than just to assert it. So I guess I=m being a coward today, but I think I would just cut the M3 range by 1/2 point as the Chairman has suggested, realizing that that may be high because it does probably require an increase in some sensitive area of Regulation Q ceilings by midyear. There, too, though, I think there might be a tendency to be overly affected by the very poor savings inflow figures that generally are inherent for February. They seem to me too radically lowered to reflect only interest rate differentials. There must be something else going on there, but it=s probably an aberration and I think we=ll probably get some recovery in thrift institutions in the period yet to come. So, for all those longish reasons, Mr. Chairman, I support exactly, I believe, what you proposed. But for M3, I would only cut the range by 1/2 point--that is, to 7-1/2 to 10 percent, simply because I think it would cause more trouble than it=s worth to cut it a full point at this stage.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Therefore, I think we=re safe enough to leave that at 6-1/2 to 9. I would leave it in any event because of this tendency for a good many rather simple analysts to draw an identity between M2 and GNP growth. I think they would become really quite agitated at a reduction in the M2 range so that the top, and thus the implied increase in nominal GNP, is below 9 percent. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'You were doing beautifully up to this point. Stop worrying about those fellows! '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'On M2, I would make the same point that Governor Jackson did.You have to remember that a large part of [M2], an increasing part of that, is not subject to Regulation Q ceilings.And we=ve seen some very large increases in large non-negotiable CD sales at the banks and indeed, you remember, it even includes negotiable CDs if they=re issued by other than the 350 largest banks.So I think there is more room for expansion there than traditional analysis may suggest on the basis of interest rate relationships.Therefore, I think we=re safe enough to leave that at 6-1/2 to 9.I would leave it in any event because of this tendency for a good many rather simple analysts to draw an identity between M2 and GNP growth.I think they would become really quite agitated at a reduction in the M2 range so that the top, and thus the implied increase in nominal GNP, is below 9 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'You were doing beautifully up to this point.Stop worrying about those fellows!'}]",yes,,,,
903,907,19780321_232_1,MR. EASTBURN.,"""This gives me some concern because we haven't come out of it.""",This gives me some concern because we haven't come out of it. We have some banks that would have a good deal more difficulty than they are having now if we had a recession.,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'I said there was some sentiment that that may be the choice. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. EASTBURN.', 'text': ""Yes, some sentiment about the need to do it. I detected some sentiment that it goes even further than that and that it really may be necessary to have a recession and that the thing to do now is to try to choose the kind of recession we'd like to have. This gives me some concern, partly because coming from the area that I come from-- ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'You never came out of the recession. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Jerry, you may be.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ZEISEL.', 'text': 'Not particularly.They have increased recently the size of the sample for collecting labor force employment and unemployment data but that should have improved the data, if anything.They have changed the pattern slightly, but basically there seems to be no significant deterioration in the quality of those data.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Dave.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. EASTBURN.', 'text': ""Thank you, Mr. Chairman.Just a comment: I'm still thinking about the remark you made about the need to slow growth [to improve] the balance of payments [and] the dollar.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""I'm not sure I said that.I said there was some sentiment that that may be the choice.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. EASTBURN.', 'text': ""Yes, some sentiment about the need to do it.I detected some sentiment that it goes even further than that and that it really may be necessary to have a recession and that the thing to do now is to try to choose the kind of recession we'd like to have.This gives me some concern, partly because coming from the area that I come from--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'You never came out of the recession.'}]",yes,yes,,,-5 sentences
904,908,19780321_275_1,MR. WALLICH.,"""If you contemplate what Humphrey-Hawkins implies, if anybody abroad thought this would be taken seriously, we would be disavowing all our anti-inflation effort.""","If you contemplate what Humphrey-Hawkins implies, if anybody abroad thought this would be taken seriously, we would be disavowing all our anti-inflation effort.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Well, if you believe those figures. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'If I believe his figures? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Yes. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I'm not sure I would go that far. But you don't have to [agree] totally with him to see the sizable discrepancy in that. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I was also struck, in terms of potential problems for the Federal Reserve, which have been [alluded] to in a couple of different ways by what Governor Wallich said about time for a slow landing and all this nomenclature that we have full employment someplace in the 5 to 6 percent or 5-1/2 to 6 percent area.That gets into the Humphrey-Hawkins bill.[Let's assume] we get the passage of the current congressional package on the Humphrey-Hawkins bill.If Henry is right, and there is a good deal in what he says, how does one go up there and testify how we are on the path and conducting policies toward whatever figure they have in there for Humphrey-Hawkins?[It] is not very far off.It seems to me that we are in a very awkward position.I don't know whether that bill is absolutely going to pass.It's very hard to oppose it.But the awkwardness of our position struck me, as I heard Governor Wallich speak.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Well, if you believe those figures.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'If I believe his figures?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I'm not sure I would go that far.But you don't have to [agree] totally with him to see the sizable discrepancy in that.""}]",yes,,,,
905,909,19780620_47_6,MR. WILLES.,"""I=m not predicting that""","Well, housing is a very difficult sector; [its performance] depends a lot on what happens to Regulation Q ceilings and the impact that has on financial flows. I will readily admit, however, that if interest rates escalate significantly in a short period of time, housing will have a difficult time sustaining itself. It would still be possible, however, to have that compensated for and then some by business and other types of spending. Jim commented that one of the reasons we don=t see business spending coming along the way we=d all like to see it is because of the uncertainty and so on associated with inflation. If we could really do something--as we might have the possibility of doing--to change that perception, then it seems to me we could have a rather vigorous growth and be [unintelligible]. I=m not predicting that but I think that=s--","[{'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': 'For that reason I=m not sure, even if we have higher interest rates than you=re assuming in your forecast, that that automatically means lower real growth. It depends on the context in which that takes place. If it takes place in an environment where those higher interest rates are perceived as having a moderating impact on inflation, then the impact on real growth could be neutral or it could be positive. I=m not sure we will know until we get there, but it=s not at all clear to me that higher interest rates automatically mean that real growth will be smaller, particularly in light of-- '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'How do you handle housing on that? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': 'And it=s not at all inconceivable to me to have--and I think you gave up too easily, Jim--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'I didn=t give up.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': 'It seems to me that if in fact you had higher interest rates, there is a way in which that might be perceived in the world as reducing the expected rates of inflation, and that would have a rather substantial positive impact on investment and other forms of spending and, therefore, a rather positive impact on real growth.For that reason I=m not sure, even if we have higher interest rates than you=re assuming in your forecast, that that automatically means lower real growth.It depends on the context in which that takes place.If it takes place in an environment where those higher interest rates are perceived as having a moderating impact on inflation, then the impact on real growth could be neutral or it could be positive.I=m not sure we will know until we get there, but it=s not at all clear to me that higher interest rates automatically mean that real growth will be smaller, particularly in light of--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'How do you handle housing on that?'}]",no,,,,
906,910,19780718_59_11,MR. KICHLINE.,"""So activity is slowing down and we would like to have, aside from the governmental programs, a slowdown in the rates of increase of inflation.""","Depending on one's preconceptions, I guess the question, frankly, is: How does monetary policy work? The way we go about this, and certainly in terms of my own view, money does matter. But it matters in that it affects markets and it affects interest rates. It alters decisions, so the level of activity is either higher or lower. And if you were talking about higher rates of M1 growth, you'd be talking about lower rates of interest and more rapid increases in economic activity, and that process would lead to some tightening of markets and upward price pressure. So in my own case, and I guess for the Board's model, the lags are quite long; but I think [inflation] is related to economic activity. That's the channel. You go through the interest rates, decisionmaking, and economic activity route. So in 1979, for example, we do have in our forecast maintenance of relatively high inflation. But at the same time, real money supplies are declining, inflation is running faster than money, and we're getting upward pressure on interest rates. So activity is slowing down and we would like to have, aside from the governmental programs, a slowdown in the rates of increase of inflation. So I think it does matter. It's a question of how does it matter and how fast. If you had lower levels of activity, you'd expect lower rates of inflation or vice versa.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Is that a recommendation, Jim, that we cut those things out? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': ""I don't ask this question in an impertinent manner, but do you totally discount the relationship of aggregates growth to prices? Forgetting those exogenous factors, isn't there a relationship between our monetary policy actions--M1 [growth of] 6-1/4 or 7-1/4 and this price level into the future? Isn't that relevant? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""But you find that in 1979 you're hit January 1 with an increase in the minimum wage and social security, the crude oil equalization tax, a dairy price support, and it goes on and on and on.So you begin to take care of that and then in 1980 we're scheduled to get it again.So if we stripped out those exogenous price shocks, we would be led to forecast lower rates of inflation.I think that was my statement.If you took away all of these government-mandated programs and had weakening real growth for a period of six quarters or so, it would begin to have effects on the [inflation rate].""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Is that a recommendation, Jim, that we cut those things out?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': ""I don't ask this question in an impertinent manner, but do you totally discount the relationship of aggregates growth to prices?Forgetting those exogenous factors, isn't there a relationship between our monetary policy actions--M1[growth of] 6-1/4 or 7-1/4 and this price level into the future?Isn't that relevant?""}]",yes,yes,sentence,,
907,911,19780718_243_1,MR. PARTEE.,"""You are giving him a very difficult assignment.""",You are giving him a very difficult assignment.,"[{'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'There are two sentiments that I hear, Chuck. One is that we are going to have these ranges and explain later our going over them. The other is that we are going to have these ranges and live within them. And those will be the debates at our following meetings. It seems to me that is what the issue is. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'I think the Chairman has an excellent opportunity to spell out the fact of great uncertainty--and great disagreement as a matter of fact--in judgments within the Committee on the behavior of M1 over this entire period, especially because of the automatic transfers.Therefore, the significance of the M1 range is necessarily sharply diminished for that reason.Deemphasize it even if we make no formal change in our 50-50 weighting just to recognize the facts of life--the great uncertainty.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""You would permit him to say: Well, that's our range but we may exceed it.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': 'You would almost have to say that.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': 'We are going to come closer this time, Chuck, than we have; and very frankly, base drift helps us do that.'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'There are two sentiments that I hear, Chuck.One is that we are going to have these ranges and explain later our going over them.The other is that we are going to have these ranges and live within them.And those will be the debates at our following meetings.It seems to me that is what the issue is.'}]",yes,,,,
908,912,19780919_121_5,MR. EASTBURN.,"""As Henry indicated, a very basic factor is the inflation rates that we're having.""","Well, as my question indicated, I'm a little less optimistic this month than I was a month ago. And I'm a little less optimistic than the Greenbook forecast, probably tracing down to the consumer sector where I think there is going to be more weakness than [in the staff projection]. Housing I suspect may hold up fairly well, basically because it is the only inflation hedge that the average person has and I think that will hold the demand up pretty well. As Henry indicated, a very basic factor is the inflation rates that we're having. I think it's quite remarkable, with that kind of inflation rate, that we have even the moderate growth that's forecast. I think we're doing quite well, given that inflation rate.","[{'speaker': 'MR. WINN.', 'text': ""And if this occurs simultaneously with construction and a few other things coming to a head further down the road, there may be a problem. But at the moment I suspect we're going to get more support in the consumer area as a result of the still pushing of the credit card and credit and other factors we've projected. So, on balance, I come out with the feeling that for the few months ahead the staff forecast is probably more on the low side--not much, but we may see unexpected strength. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Willis. Dave. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WINN.', 'text': ""So, what worries me is that if these are brought on stream, then we may suddenly get a glut in this area with a very sharp turnoff.Second, we're seeing some interesting things in consumer spending; jewelry, furs, and other premium items are really going great guns.The nondurables are having problems.And what worries me on this score is that with consumer credit [readily available]--with the credit cards and a number of other things--we may have introduced a much higher degree of cyclical behavior in the consumer area than we've experienced previously.And if this occurs simultaneously with construction and a few other things coming to a head further down the road, there may be a problem.But at the moment I suspect we're going to get more support in the consumer area as a result of the still pushing of the credit card and credit and other factors we've projected.So, on balance, I come out with the feeling that for the few months ahead the staff forecast is probably more on the low side--not much, but we may see unexpected strength.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Willis.Dave.'}]",no,,,,
909,913,19781121_150_2,MR. BLACK.,"""Along with this, of course, there will be more unemployment.""","Well, Mr. Chairman, I feel that we are not going to be able to accomplish as much on the inflation front as would be desirable, so I think there's going to be less strength than other people do and that a recession is likely. Along with this, of course, there will be more unemployment. I've already indicated that I think real GNP might be 1 percent to 2 percent. I think unemployment might be in the neighborhood of 6-1/2 to 7 percent and the inflation rate at 7-1/2 to 9 percent.","[{'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""And we have another tax increase coming in the fall of next year when the increase on the ceiling on social security payments [hits]. So you're going to get two big tax increases, which will almost offset the tax cut that's coming in January. So I'm very pessimistic. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you. Bob. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""I think we're in for some trouble.It's a question in my mind as to whether we'll get through Christmas this year or whether it will hit us next fall.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Any numbers?'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""Well, if we go down, I think we are going to go down lower than you do, Chuck, to a rate of negative growth.And if we recover, we'll probably [unintelligible] through it.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'The reason I get a plus 1/2 is because of the fourth quarter.It adds quite a bit.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""If you take the fourth quarter out, you don't get it.Let me also point out that even though we have a tax cut coming January 1 we have a tax increase on January 1.And we have another tax increase coming in the fall of next year when the increase on the ceiling on social security payments [hits].So you're going to get two big tax increases, which will almost offset the tax cut that's coming in January.So I'm very pessimistic.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you.Bob.'}]",yes,,,,
910,914,19781219_90_7,MR. KICHLINE.,"""I was under the impression that most of those who have higher deficit numbers are operating with different economic assumptions.""","That's right, though we would like to think that we have done our own work. We do have differences in various categories. We have some outlays a bit lower. We think there will be a little bit in the way of shortfalls, not a great deal. But we have somewhat higher interest payments so they are offsets. But in total we are quite close. I was under the impression that most of those who have higher deficit numbers are operating with different economic assumptions. That was my general impression.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""Well, the question on the full employment surplus or deficit, from the fourth to the first quarter there is virtually no change, [even] with a tax cut. At the same time we have the social security tax increase, which is a partial offset; and on the expenditure side we have a fairly slow growth of expenditures related to the Commodity Credit Corporation expenditures, which have boosted this quarter a bit and we anticipate will not in the first quarter. So it's really that there are offsetting items going on within the accounts, so we don't have much change in fiscal thrust right now. With regard to the budget deficit numbers, I guess we feel fairly comfortable with what we have now. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Which is similar to the Administration's figure. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'What surprises me about this is that some of them have been ahead of the government in projecting a lower deficit in recent years and lower expenditures, which has turned out to be the case.Now it seems to be reversed.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Well, it's hard-- Jim, let's get it back in focus.Jim, tell us about all that new employment and personal income that's going to [generate] all that revenue.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""Well, the question on the full employment surplus or deficit, from the fourth to the first quarter there is virtually no change, [even] with a tax cut.At the same time we have the social security tax increase, which is a partial offset; and on the expenditure side we have a fairly slow growth of expenditures related to the Commodity Credit Corporation expenditures, which have boosted this quarter a bit and we anticipate will not in the first quarter.So it's really that there are offsetting items going on within the accounts, so we don't have much change in fiscal thrust right now.With regard to the budget deficit numbers, I guess we feel fairly comfortable with what we have now.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Which is similar to the Administration's figure.""}]",no,,,,
911,915,19790206_430_1,CHAIRMAN MILLER.,"""Well, Steve is frank to say that he is expecting these aggregates to pop back up and adjust this process.""","Well, Steve is frank to say that he is expecting these aggregates to pop back up and adjust this process. He is very frank to say so and is worried about dealing with that, right?","[{'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""So we'd get 6-1/2 to I-1/2 percent. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Somewhere on that order. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I must say, Mark, that I really do think we're talking about an arithmetic-- ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""I'm just trying to understand, Chuck, what the numbers are. I think we're talking about policy and not arithmetic. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Let's leave the rate question; the rate question sounds as if it's whether to leave the top side at 10-1/2 percent or cut it back to 10-1/4 percent.What we're going to do now is see if there's a majority who will accept 3 to 8 percent and 4 to 8 percent.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""Sorry, Mr. Chairman, may I just ask a question?I'm not sure what Steve is assuming in these numbers about the demand shift for the first quarter.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'A lot--3-1/2 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': 'So if we got 8 percent growth for the 2 months, what would that be for the quarter if we get the 3-1/2 percent shift?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'The quarter is about 3/4 percent, so add 3-1/2 to that plus 3 percent [for A T S J .if you want to put it in those terms.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""So we'd get 6-1/2 to I-1/2 percent.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Somewhere on that order.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I must say, Mark, that I really do think we're talking about an arithmetic--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WILLES.', 'text': ""I'm just trying to understand, Chuck, what the numbers are.I think we're talking about policy and not arithmetic.""}]",yes,yes,,,
912,916,19790320_81_1,CHAIRMAN MILLER.,"""That's the one place where it's quite weak.""",That's the one place where it's quite weak.,"[{'speaker': 'MR. WINN.', 'text': ""There's just isn't any [more capacity]. If we get demand for steel in excess of [the current level], we will really be faced with a blow-up the other way. Now, it may not occur. ""}, {'speaker': 'M R . MORRIS.', 'text': 'Did you say the demand for coal is weak? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. WINN.', 'text': 'Yes, weak '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WINN.', 'text': ""And I look at confidence in another area--at many of our so-called monetary mechanisms.Take the credit unions and look at their loan/deposit ratios and their lack of cash; yet they're in the share draft business.What does it mean if customers really step up their demands for [withdrawing] their money from some of these [institutions] or want to transfer it?So, I would project the potential for weakness that everybody's talking about, and then I'm raising the question of whether there are other possible developments.The only real weakness I can find at the moment in the District is the coal situation, but in other areas such as cement there is strength.A number of the raw materials producers are at capacity.Steel is running flat out.There's just isn't any [more capacity].If we get demand for steel in excess of [the current level], we will really be faced with a blow-up the other way.Now, it may not occur.""}, {'speaker': 'M R . MORRIS.', 'text': 'Did you say the demand for coal is weak?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WINN.', 'text': 'Yes, weak'}]",yes,no,,,
913,917,19790320_107_1,MR. BALLES.,"""I hope Chuck has a king size bed because I would like to crawl into it too!""","I hope Chuck has a king size bed because I would like to crawl into it too! There is no sense in reviewing in detail the way I come out because essentially I'm in agreement with Chuck's analysis; we were apparently reading the same tea leaves. If that analysis is right, then the strategic problem for us now is how to get a soft landing. We can't stuff the genie back into the bottle as far as inflation is concerned. We shouldn't expect instant results from the tightening that we've engaged in since last November 1. We all know about lags in policy and, unfortunately, they seem to be longer on the price side than on the real economy side. So we're going through that usual agonizing period when the bad news comes now in terms of the damping the economy and the good news comes later--perhaps as much as a year later--when monetary restraint begins to show through on the price front. The real danger at the moment, therefore, is overstaying restraint. I fully understood and concurred in the moves we made on November 1; in effect, since that time we've been targeting interest rates. It was done almost under crisis conditions because of the potential for international economic and financial disruption at a time when the dollar was going down like a rock. But we've done that and now we've seen some extremely slow monetary growth, even after adjustment for ATS and NOW accounts and so forth. And given the fact that the staff forecast for money has been way over the mark for 5 months in a row now--and as Steve well knows I'm not being critical because this is a very slippery business--I will bet you a drink or dinner, Steve, that the actual March numbers will be about as weak. I suspect they will be down several percentage points from your present forecast, as they have been in October through February. So I am getting an increasingly uneasy feeling about overstaying restraint and I would begin to hedge our bets by a slight tilt toward a lower funds rate, trying to get money growth back up a little closer to what we declare to be our 12-month objective.","[{'speaker': 'MR. GAINOR.', 'text': ""On the national level, we continue to be very concerned about inflation. Of course we're uncertain, as everyone is, about the impact of the oil shortage, and we don't fully understand the current state of the monetary aggregates. So in view of the uncertainty about oil, housing, and the aggregates, we would favor holding the line for this month. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Tom. John '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GAINOR.', 'text': ""Our District's unemployment rate is lower than that for the country, at 4.4 percent versus 5 . 8 percent.Our help wanted advertising is at a record high in the Twin Cities area.Farm income in our District is up sharply.The inflation rate in the Twin Cities was 11-1/2 percent for the last year, considerably higher than for the country.The only negative factor in our otherwise positive picture is housing starts; they are down.And at least in Minnesota we're not willing to say that that isn't weather-related this year.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I wouldn't think you'd build anything in that weather !""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'They built two houses!'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GAINOR.', 'text': ""On the national level, we continue to be very concerned about inflation.Of course we're uncertain, as everyone is, about the impact of the oil shortage, and we don't fully understand the current state of the monetary aggregates.So in view of the uncertainty about oil, housing, and the aggregates, we would favor holding the line for this month.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Tom.John'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
914,918,19790711_219_1,MR. PARDEE.,"""It sounds sound to me.""",It sounds sound to me.,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""and I think there are people looking for excuses to believe that the United States is changing its policy. And whether we are going to change our policy [is] something we want to keep close to our chest, as far as allowing that to be used against us to create a rate for the dollar. I wouldn't be very happy to have that happen right now. I don't know if any of you who deal with foreign exchange markets have any views on that. We haven't asked you, but-- ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""and then we will redefine M1 and then we will have another set of figures.I think it adds to the confusion.Now.this is just a suggestion; I am not wedded to it.We are trying to think through what the risk is of this being misread.M2 and M3 won't be misread if everybody seems to feel that we should stay pat.But if M1 is misread, what's the risk?I think the main risk is that it comes at a time when there is uncertainty and unsettlement in the foreign exchange marketsand I think there are people looking for excuses to believe that the United States is changing its policy.And whether we are going to change our policy [is] something we want to keep close to our chest, as far as allowing that to be used against us to create a rate for the dollar.I wouldn't be very happy to have that happen right now.I don't know if any of you who deal with foreign exchange markets have any views on that.We haven't asked you, but--""}]",yes,yes,-5 sentences,,
915,919,19790711_236_1,CHAIRMAN MILLER.,"""That's what bothers me.""",That's what bothers me. We could end up with something we did [not expect] and be fouled up again.,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""It may be something else by the end of the year. That's one of the problems. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""Maybe. It may be back up to 5 percent. I don't know which way this [adjustment] could turn. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. EASTBURN.', 'text': ""The main concern on the other side, drawing from our experience with these targets in the past, is that once we get locked into a certain range it's very difficult to change.And the longer we go without changing, the more difficult it is to change.So if we go this way, I think we should do so with the understanding that if policy has to change, we will change the numbers.Let's not find ourselves locked into that same old situation as in the past.If we suspect at all that there's a danger of getting locked into that, there's some advantage in changing the numbers simply for technical reasons just to change the numbers.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""Yes, that's the other side of it.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, it seems to me that given the uncertainties--the idea that we started out with a 3 percent adjustment earlier this year and it's now down to 1-1/2 percent--.I don't know what the staff was actually forecasting--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ""It may be something else by the end of the year.That's one of the problems.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': ""Maybe.It may be back up to 5 percent.I don't know which way this [adjustment] could turn.""}]",yes,yes,-200+ tokens,,
916,920,19791006_420_6,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""and I just want to vote.""","By all means, that is kept strictly confidential. M E . KIMBREL. Mr. Chairman, we seem to be getting close together and I sure would hate to have my friend Mr. Roos cast my vote [as my alternate] but I have to leave and I just want to vote.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We are going to be awfully delighted if we come in any place within these ranges. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, is this communication, this [directive], going to be kept within this group as far as publicity--? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Except for the press conference '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': ""There are aspects that I think could cause some trouble with the analysis. I'm talking about the wire and the [decision]. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""My point simply is that if we happen to come out at 5 percent for September-December we wouldn't be outside the target range.I think 4-1/2 percent does imply a [bit of a] range.Now for safety, we'd rather be on the lower side of 4-1/2 percent.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""There isn't any safety on M2, Chuck.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Again, it seems to me that you can trade that M2 off against M3.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'It may well come in less than that anyway with disintermediation.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think we are dancing on a pin a little bit here.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': ""Yes, I accept Chuck's point.I think it's well taken.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Yes.We're going to have an awfully hard time--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We are going to be awfully delighted if we come in any place within these ranges.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, is this communication, this [directive], going to be kept within this group as far as publicity--?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Except for the press conference'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': ""There are aspects that I think could cause some trouble with the analysis.I'm talking about the wire and the [decision].""}]",yes,no,,,
917,921,19791120_482_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Only for Governor Wallich; I think that's all.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR.   ROOS.', 'text': 'Would we if we move [the FOMC meeting date]? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Yes, sure. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""I might suggest, Mr. Chairman, the possibility of having this meeting on January 8 if that's agreeable. If we're going to follow it with the Conference of Presidents, that takes another day. Is something wrong with January 8th? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""The meeting might be moved because of various developments of an unforeseen character but particularly it may be convenient in terms of the new money supply figures and all the rest.If nothing is happening that suggests that we need to review things with urgency and if the [new] money supply figures will be in better shape and clearer with two weeks more [of work on them]--and we will have the advantage of knowing the OPEC decision and we won't have that on December 18th--then I'd be inclined to change it.But if something comes up [and things are1 not going according to Hoyle in some sense, I'd be inclined to keep it [as scheduled].""}, {'speaker': 'M R . ROOS.', 'text': ""While we're all here, could I address a question to Bob Black?We have a Conference of Presidents meeting scheduled in December.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'We could reschedule that.'}, {'speaker': 'MR.   ROOS.', 'text': 'Would we if we move [the FOMC meeting date]?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Yes, sure.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""I might suggest, Mr. Chairman, the possibility of having this meeting on January 8 if that's agreeable.If we're going to follow it with the Conference of Presidents, that takes another day.Is something wrong with January 8th?""}]",no,,,,
918,922,19800109_15_8,MR. PARTEE.,"""That's what bothers me.""","I know it's awfully early, but what bothers me about this whole experiment so far, Paul, is that I don't get any sense of dynamics working. That is, we had a very nice outcome taking the quarter as a whole. I think everybody around the table would agree that the money number calmed down and the markets have been better and all that. But that all could have been an adjustment to the one-time change in conditions that occurred early in October, with much higher rates and the availability constraint and that kind of thing. Since then I haven't had much sense of dynamics in the process that would lead to, say, restoration of a higher growth rate in money if it were lower than what we wanted. And it has tended to be lower than we wanted. Perhaps it's just too early, but I don't see it. That's what bothers me.","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'What we had up until three days ago is closer to the historical pattern. Now we have much less borrowing than one would expect historically, and I would assume borrowing is going to jump back up. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""If I can interject, these last few days seem difficult to explain; the rather low level of borrowing is just not what one would associate with a funds rate of around 2 percent over the discount rate. And, as Steve mentioned, because of that we made an interim adjustment in what we were aiming for in nonborrowed reserves, feeling that to try to press nonborrowed reserves down to the path level in this current week would have meant going into the market and extracting reserves when the funds rate was around 13-3/4 or 14 percent. That obviously didn't make sense; and in effect we've been running this week with an assumption that an adjustment of about $500 to $600 million should be added to the nonborrowed or taken away from the [borrowed] reserves. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'That was what was [off] the historical pattern.What we had up until three days ago is closer to the historical pattern.Now we have much less borrowing than one would expect historically, and I would assume borrowing is going to jump back up.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""If I can interject, these last few days seem difficult to explain; the rather low level of borrowing is just not what one would associate with a funds rate of around 2 percent over the discount rate.And, as Steve mentioned, because of that we made an interim adjustment in what we were aiming for in nonborrowed reserves, feeling that to try to press nonborrowed reserves down to the path level in this current week would have meant going into the market and extracting reserves when the funds rate was around 13-3/4 or 14 percent.That obviously didn't make sense; and in effect we've been running this week with an assumption that an adjustment of about $500 to $600 million should be added to the nonborrowed or taken away from the [borrowed] reserves.""}]",yes,yes,utterance,,
919,923,19800109_445_1,MR. KICHLINE.,"""We don't have any additional information; in fact, I'm not sure that the Commerce Department has anything in the way of hard evidence right now.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Right. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Is that M-1A or M-1B? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""It's M-1A, but I'm not sure we would want to forecast a great deal of difference in interest rates on the basis of M-1A and M-1B. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Jim, I was a little surprised about the magnitude of the announced increase in real GNP for the fourth quarter. Where would you guess that will end up after the final revisions are in? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Compensation goes up by 3/4 of a percent because of that effect and we assume it will be fairly quickly passed through in the form of higher prices.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'What sort of a monetary interest rate projection do you have underlying this forecast, Jim?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'We have a moderate decline in rates beginning in the spring and going on; the 3-month Treasury bill rate we assume will [drop to] around 10 percent in the spring[and will drop a bit more through] the third quarter and rise slightly thereafter to 11 percent in the second half of 1981.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""So it's basically a very restrictive monetary and fiscal policy.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Oh, yes.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""That's based on what--6 percent Ml growth?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Right.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Is that M-1A or M-1B?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""It's M-1A, but I'm not sure we would want to forecast a great deal of difference in interest rates on the basis of M-1A and M-1B.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Jim, I was a little surprised about the magnitude of the announced increase in real GNP for the fourth quarter.Where would you guess that will end up after the final revisions are in?'}]",no,,,,
920,926,19800709_11_3,VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.,"""Basically, cooperation with them on intervention had been very good, But they have this dilemma, and they are very, very aware of it.""","Mr. Chairman, I think it's worth emphasizing one point, which is that the reluctance of the Bundesbank to intervene directly in support of the dollar on as large a scale in the last few days--which means depressing the D-mark--is [related to] the fact that they are at the bottom of the EMS. So there is this contradiction and dilemma for them. Basically, cooperation with them on intervention had been very good, But they have this dilemma, and they are very, very aware of it.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Did I hear a second? Without objection the minutes are approved. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': ""That's the same problem I have in the Board meetings! ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Pardee. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARDEE.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.] '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""We'll see whether we can have lunch in the august Board of Governors meeting room without spilling anything on the rug; if we do spill, we won't be able to have lunch around the table again.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': ""Either that or the Governors can't have [a rug]; it's one of the two.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I'd like to welcome Governor Gramley officially to this august body in a new guise.He is completely unfamiliar with the table; I believe we literally have a new table since you were last here.So we welcome you to the table literally and figuratively.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'Thank you very much.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""We have several First Vice Presidents with us today because of the absence--for various reasons--of some of the Presidents, and we welcome you.I don't think we have anything else of that order of business, Mr. Altmann.We need to approve the minutes then.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'So moved.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Did I hear a second?Without objection the minutes are approved.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': ""That's the same problem I have in the Board meetings!""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Pardee.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARDEE.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.]'}]",no,,,,
921,927,19800709_678_2,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""I think enough hands were raised that we can vote.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'The question is how much-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': ""And then we'd need at least $40 billion to support the market. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, how many people find the proposal that is on the table acceptable? '}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Voting members? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'This is an acceptance with a waffle. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'Has the staff said that 8-1/2 to 14 percent on fed funds is consistent with 7, 8, and 8 percent [which are] compromises?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Well, at the time we wrote the Bluebook if we had had to say something--it would have been fine-tuning of a silly nature--we would have raised the lower limit from 8-1/2 to 8-3/4 percent or something like that.Given the data I now have on the aggregates, I wouldn't have.The data are in a state of flux; that's why it's better to have this meeting on a Tuesday.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'What is the rationale, though, on preferring the compromise over alternative B?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""We don't have to push so hard.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""It's a little lower number but it's a tolerable number, Larry.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'I\'d prefer ""A,"" obviously, beause it would get us[there] theoretically.We know that.The question is how much--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': ""And then we'd need at least $40 billion to support the market.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, how many people find the proposal that is on the table acceptable?'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Voting members?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'This is an acceptance with a waffle.'}]",no,,,,
922,928,19801021_82_5,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""I say that because the Treasury is so far in debt that there is quite a bit of absorptive capacity in the United States government for the next month or two anyway.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I just want to make sure because if we go ahead now we may run into some problems in the next month, more internally than externally, I suspect. But what we'll look toward is negotiating it that way. Would we [ordinarily] have approved these in November or December? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARDEE.', 'text': 'In November, because the first renewals are in early December. So we have to act between now and November. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Mayo.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': ""I would favor going ahead with this, Mr. Chairman.I have just two points.The loss and gain business doesn't make it any harder for us to explain this to a busy Congress under the new system than under the old.As far as I'm concerned, we shouldn't worry about the losses and gains except on general principle.And I find Henry's equation and the equation in effect that's in the memo easier to understand than our own equation on domestic monetary policy.So, I would favor going ahead with this.I think it's the right course.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Is that the general view?'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKERS(?).', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I just want to make sure because if we go ahead now we may run into some problems in the next month, more internally than externally, I suspect.But what we'll look toward is negotiating it that way.Would we [ordinarily] have approved these in November or December?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARDEE.', 'text': 'In November, because the first renewals are in early December.So we have to act between now and November.'}]",yes,no,,,
923,929,19801219_470_20,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""I would like a phrase in there indicating ""over a period of time"" or something like that so it doesn't sound as if these ranges are applied rigidly on a day-to-day basis.""","Let's try to keep going and see what happens. Let's distribute [this draft]. I looked at it and the language is not perfect. I don't know whether people will even agree with the concept, but let me go over it and tell you what I am trying to convey because the language may not be adequate to convey what I am trying to communicate. The whole thing indicates some sense of uncertainty about what the figures will mean in the short run, but the first sentence is simply designed to say that we are tentatively proceeding for this first-quarter period in accordance with our [preliminary long-run] plans [announced] before. As I noted, I don't think that raises all the issues as to whether the long-term plan is really the one we want to follow for the year as a whole because of this expectation that the money supply may be a little softer in the near term. The second sentence identifies just what that is. There is a practical problem. These [figures] are cited as the midpoint of those long-term ranges and M2 is probably going to be higher than that. So there is a question of whether we want to leave that as the mechanical midpoints of the ranges. The next sentence says that we are not going to give a precise figure for M-1A and M-1B right now because we don't know what the NOW and ATS accounts are going to be. And it says that's the way we will try to conduct ourselves in terms of the specific job of setting forth the reserve path. Then an important sentence is the next one, which says that we want [our short-term targets] to be consistent [with our longer-term targets for] next year, but we are not going to be disturbed by a shortfall. That has perhaps some implication that we'd be just as happy if [monetary growth did] fall short of these figures. The reservation is that we are not going to [push] for a shortfall by tightening the money market further, but rather that if the shortfall arises in an atmosphere of some relaxation of money market pressures it would be accepted. It's an acceptance rather than a seeking through aggressive tightening action. The last sentence is more or less standard, but the numbers are important. I would like a phrase in there indicating ""over a period of time"" or something like that so it doesn't sound as if these ranges are applied rigidly on a day-to-day basis. That has always been the understanding. So, that is the sense of it; other people may have quite different ideas. I'd avoid the term ""weekly average;"" it sounds rather rigid and we have been over--","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Are we going to bring sandwiches in here today? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, we were not going to. We should have, obviously. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': ""Well, let's decide quickly. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""Let's keep going. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'If I could add one point on that: The rally of the last couple of days is based on a rumor about the money supply and also on reports from the incoming Reagan Administration to the effect of some [likelihood] of a national emergency program, which the markets seem to be interpreting, for whatever reason, rather bullishly for the bond markets.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Can we have a motion to approve these transactions before we forget it?'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'So moved.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Without objection they are approved.And I would propose, unless the sentiment is the other way, that we have a quick lunch.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': 'Can we try to have it fairly quickly because changing airline tickets late in the afternoon is going to be an awful problem today.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'So far as I am concerned, we can sit here if you prefer, but--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""I'd just as soon go forward.""}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': ""We'll get finished quicker if we are hungry.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': 'That was the Arthur Burns technique!'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I am perfectly happy to do that if that--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'Are we going to bring sandwiches in here today?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, we were not going to.We should have, obviously.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': ""Well, let's decide quickly.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""Let's keep going.""}]",yes,no,,,
924,930,19810203_204_12,MR. GRAMLEY.,"""And, although we can't measure it, it does have some adverse effects on investment proceedings.""","I'd like to argue the case for going back to the federal funds target, not because I think the Committee is likely to agree with me or go in that direction but because I think the value of using that technique needs to be kept in mind when we ask ourselves what we are doing with the present technique or how we are going to improve it. First, we have to recognize that the way we communicate our [policy actions] to economic activity today is through movements of interest rates. Interest rates are the cutting edge of policy. We have eliminated almost completely the changes in credit availability that were so important in years past. And I think one could argue that it's unconscionable for the central bank not to be concerned about the cost of credit, the cost of money, when that is what is communicating its effects to the real economy. Second, I would argue that increasingly over time in recent years we have found that instability of money demand has become a very, very large problem in an operating technique of this kind. I'm not at all sure that that is going to go away. It may well be a characteristic that's endemic in a system in which there is so much inflation that interest rates get to a point where people are moving assets from one area of the financial markets to another and where financial institutions are innovating to make this possible. We may find that five years from now we have problems every bit as large as we face prospectively in 1981 in trying to interpret what is happening to the narrow money measures. Third, as I mentioned, I think under present institutional arrangements we can operate to control the growth of money quite as precisely with the federal funds target procedure as we can with reserve targets. Finally, I think it is important that this technique we adopted does indeed communicate a lot more of the variability in interest rates in the short-term end to the long-term end. And, although we can't measure it, it does have some adverse effects on investment proceedings. Even if people could hedge this interest rate risk, they are going to pay to engage in this hedging transaction. Mr. Chairman, I think you are right--and this is what we need to keep in mind--that there really is only one reason why we should have abandoned the federal funds target procedure to go to the reserve target. And that is because if we operate on federal funds, we explicitly take responsibility for what is happening to interest rates and then this becomes a very, very difficult world to live in. But we need to keep that in mind. If that's the reason we are on this new strategy and no other, then we can go about conditioning how we apply the new strategy in ways to take advantage of the economic aspects of operating on a federal funds target.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I say I don't know how we can do it in the current institutional setting because we don't control discount window borrowing under any of these proposals in the short run. That is a question to which I will return. But, can the discussion proceed on the basis of working within the framework of an immediate nonborrowed reserve technique with an eye on total reserves, leaving the question of emphasis open? Or do we [want to discuss] going back to federal funds or take another step toward some other kind of aggregate? Is there anybody who wants to argue the case for any of these extremes? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Now, Governor Wallich has often made the point that 999 out of 1,000 people--or maybe 999,000 out of a million--are looking at interest rates and not deviations in the money supply when they are concerned about stability or instability.How we approach that problem is an interesting one.Let me just ask a question to see whether we can dispose of some questions or not: Should we have a debate about going to a different control technique?I don't know how to go to total reserves or even the monetary base under the current institutional setting.But we could do it nominally, anyway.I say I don't know how we can do it in the current institutional setting because we don't control discount window borrowing under any of these proposals in the short run.That is a question to which I will return.But, can the discussion proceed on the basis of working within the framework of an immediate nonborrowed reserve technique with an eye on total reserves, leaving the question of emphasis open?Or do we [want to discuss] going back to federal funds or take another step toward some other kind of aggregate?Is there anybody who wants to argue the case for any of these extremes?""}]",no,,,,
925,931,19810203_354_11,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Under the old operating technique we could have maintained a penalty rate and we never did during these periods; and the discrepancy got extremely wide every time we had a tight money period.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'And I would like to delegate to President Solomon the task of giving us some recommendations as to how we may maintain a detailed record for members of the Committee and otherwise without excessive duplication. If you would give us recommendations at an appropriate time in a coming meeting, President Solomon, I would appreciate it. '}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Amen. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Just one more blow we're going to strike in favor of deregulation [or] simplification. Okay. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'I think we could defuse that by stating it in the policy record right away instead of 30 days later when nobody reads it.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I'll add another one: Shall we publish the money supply figures weekly?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': 'You do have the contemporaneous accounting on your list now?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Yes.We have quite a few on the list; I'm now up to H.We're not going to be able to resolve all of these, obviously, but we may get some sense on a couple of the key ones.Let's return after lunch and concentrate on this for an hour or so.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'The lunch is here?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Yes.[Lunch recess]'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': '[Unintelligible] there is a certain amount of duplication that is unnecessary.And I would like to delegate to President Solomon the task of giving us some recommendations as to how we may maintain a detailed record for members of the Committee and otherwise without excessive duplication.If you would give us recommendations at an appropriate time in a coming meeting, President Solomon, I would appreciate it.'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Amen.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Just one more blow we're going to strike in favor of deregulation [or] simplification.Okay.""}]",no,,,,
926,932,19810203_1513_3,MR. AXILROD.,"""But we have to look elsewhere.""","No, I just can't answer that directly. We didn't find anything, but there is this peculiarity of the deposit data that we think is just a bad seasonal. But we have to look elsewhere.","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""I don't believe we have noticed any substantial increase or change in the other liabilities category, but I haven't inspected that personally. We have not found any real evidence of something like that going on. But [money supply] behavior in the last two weeks of December and the first week of January was rather odd; my inclination has been to throw those three weeks out and start [comparing] recent weeks of January with where we were because they did drop sharply and then rose sharply. There was a very big increase in M-1A after adjustments. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'I thought you might have had a chance to look at the trend of the so-called other liabilities that came in. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'The [alleged] scenario is that both banks and S&Ls were getting cranked up to issue NOW accounts, which weren\'t legal until the first of the year, and were making moves internally to take things out of savings accounts but hadn\'t yet classified them as NOW accounts and were calling them in reports to us ""other liabilities.""I don\'t know whether that has any merit in reality.I\'m asking you.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""Yes, I have heard of that.I don't believe we have noticed any substantial increase or change in the other liabilities category, but I haven't inspected that personally.We have not found any real evidence of something like that going on.But [money supply] behavior in the last two weeks of December and the first week of January was rather odd; my inclination has been to throw those three weeks out and start [comparing] recent weeks of January with where we were because they did drop sharply and then rose sharply.There was a very big increase in M-1A after adjustments.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'I thought you might have had a chance to look at the trend of the so-called other liabilities that came in.'}]",yes,yes,-5 sentences,neutral,-5 sentences
927,933,19810331_293_3,MR. AXILROD.,"""For sure we would do it around midyear.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""You have? We haven't published a new one. The question is when we should indicate that there is a new target equivalent for the actual figures, if we change that assumption. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'We have postponed that two-thirds because the latest data coming in suggest that [proportion from demand deposits] remains very high, and we have stayed with the same [assumption]. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""But at some point we will have to change that other target, won't we? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'So, there is the possibility that the present methodology could be understating the adjusted growth in M-1B.But I think that needs some more study.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, I think your comments are very well taken in the vein that there is uncertainty here, which I doubt we can resolve completely, but we've got to keep looking at it.I think we just have to recognize that there is a band of uncertainty.And in that connection, we assumed in the target for the actual figures, the equivalent target, that this would pretty quickly go down to two-thirds, didn't we?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Well, but we changed that assumption.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""You have?We haven't published a new one.The question is when we should indicate that there is a new target equivalent for the actual figures, if we change that assumption.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'We have postponed that two-thirds because the latest data coming in suggest that [proportion from demand deposits] remains very high, and we have stayed with the same [assumption].'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""But at some point we will have to change that other target, won't we?""}]",no,,,,
928,934,19810707_376_3,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""All I want is an instinct at this point.""","May I just go back and ask Mr. Roos and Mr. Partee if they are ready to pronounce judgment? This all should be considered very tentative. All I want is an instinct at this point. Consistent with alternative 2 for the short run, meaning this year, would you leave the ranges unchanged or would you lower M-1B presumably?","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""At least we in New York, Steve, are a little surprised by the interest rate levels projected to be consistent with each of these alternatives. To me these interest rates are very much on the high side. Certainly the market would think they are on the high side. And since they're derived on fairly unreliable historical relationships based on the model, it may be that the market is less wrong and more right. We ought to take with a grain of salt the interest rate projections; I'd think of them as being more the outside limit on the upper side rather than as the most likely result. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': ""Alternative I is the one that keeps interest rates in the 18 percent range for the full 18 months, isn't that correct?Presumably alternatives II and III would put interest rates in the 20 or perhaps 22 percent range.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Well, it probably would, if you assume the economy unchanged.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Until the economy collapses!'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""It doesn't have to collapse; it just needs to ease a little.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""There's a further complication.At least we in New York, Steve, are a little surprised by the interest rate levels projected to be consistent with each of these alternatives.To me these interest rates are very much on the high side.Certainly the market would think they are on the high side.And since they're derived on fairly unreliable historical relationships based on the model, it may be that the market is less wrong and more right.We ought to take with a grain of salt the interest rate projections; I'd think of them as being more the outside limit on the upper side rather than as the most likely result.""}]",yes,yes,utterance,,
929,935,19811006_368_12,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""I don't know whether that's possible or not.""","Or it just could get higher. In any event, frankly, getting M-1B in the range is very much a two-edged proposition so far as I'm concerned. It has the moderate merit of looking great when we're testifying, but it doesn't look great even when one is testifying if M2 and all the other aggregates are above the range. I'd rather have [M-1B] below the range if the others are above, quite frankly, just in the pure presentational sense. But a great big increase [in M-1B] is not going to look good to what I will call the market or to people wondering what we're doing and whether we're easing aggressively in the face of sour business news. Also, just in terms of the performance for the year as a whole, while it's very hard to evaluate the quantitative magnitude, there are reasons to believe that M-1B should be lower than we thought when we set the targets, particularly in light of the effects money market funds, which have only doubled or more this year, have on that particular aggregate. I also recognize that it may have the other kind of effect on the other aggregate. But the interpretation that is going to be put on this and its real effect depend upon whether we have to push or whether we accept it, and that's what we've been struggling with here. I think there is--if I detect it correctly--some fair reluctance to push M-1B growth too high. It's a matter of judgment what too high means. On the other hand, there's quite a willingness to accept a high number if it can come without pushing too hard. I don't know whether that's possible or not. That's about where I am anyway, and I suspect that sums up the feeling that a lot of people have. If we take this backwards, what is your infamous borrowing number at the moment--$875 or $884 million or thereabouts?","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, I'm including the off-budget finance to the Treasury, but I'm not including the other. But it's an enormous amount of financing. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""You're talking about the financing need in the fourth quarter? ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Yes. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'I think the Treasury looks for something in the mid-$30 billion area; $35 billion or so is what the market expects. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""The big problem, and maybe the only question there, is that an enormous amount of Treasury financing has to be done.We've had a glorious period of short-term rates going down 2 or 3 percentage points and long-term rates going up, which is not very helpful in some sense, and there's nothing we can control just by pumping out money.It may have the opposite effects, but we have the hard reality of all that Treasury financing out there.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Aren't they projecting $50 billion for the next quarter?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, we're projecting $37 billion, I think; it's only about $3 billion a week or something of that kind!Well, I'm including the off-budget finance to the Treasury, but I'm not including the other.But it's an enormous amount of financing.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""You're talking about the financing need in the fourth quarter?""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'I think the Treasury looks for something in the mid-$30 billion area; $35 billion or so is what the market expects.'}]",no,,,,
930,936,19820202_662_1,MR. WALLICH.,"""But we have never said anything other than that we would fight disorder.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'I think we could do this on the grounds that there is an element of disorder when the market pays little attention to fundamentals like inflation and-- '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""But that still comes back to a view about the level. I'm not unhappy about this because it's a beautiful [chance] to finally get a change and a perception of a change in the Sprinkel policy. I do think, though, that the market will be a little confused because when we've had these disorderly or volatile markets [before] we have not intervened and all of a sudden we are intervening in a situation--and this is a big movement-- ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I'm not talking about doing it on a really trivial movement; I'm not talking about a couple of pfennigs anyway. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""And that's the way it stands at the moment.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""That would be interpreted in the market as dissatisfaction with the level, not as countering a disorderly or a very volatile market, I think.Wouldn't you agree that that's the way the market would see it to some degree?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, I think some mixture.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'I think we could do this on the grounds that there is an element of disorder when the market pays little attention to fundamentals like inflation and--'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""But that still comes back to a view about the level.I'm not unhappy about this because it's a beautiful [chance] to finally get a change and a perception of a change in the Sprinkel policy.I do think, though, that the market will be a little confused because when we've had these disorderly or volatile markets [before] we have not intervened and all of a sudden we are intervening in a situation--and this is a big movement--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I'm not talking about doing it on a really trivial movement; I'm not talking about a couple of pfennigs anyway.""}]",no,,,,
931,937,19821005_183_12,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""And we get into this ridiculous situation where a country that is putting in $12-1/2 million has the same voice as the United States does.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I think one can say that about most of these other countries. So we may be talking about the timing, but we are not talking about the essence of the matter in that many of these countries, as are companies at home and banking practices at home, are on an unsustainable course. We can't have a banking system that's totally loaned up to Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina and Yugoslavia, but that's the direction they were going in. And some day that had to stop. ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'Will these containment efforts be done in cooperation with the BIS the way Mexico was? '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""And they borrowed heaven knows how many billions of dollars net this year when they still could borrow--before they got in trouble.The timing of it is affected by recession, high interest rates, and all the rest.But I think it's patently obvious that Mexico was going to borrow all it could borrow and all the banks were going to give them and at some point that was going to come to an end.And it was going to be a crisis situation.I think one can say that about most of these other countries.So we may be talking about the timing, but we are not talking about the essence of the matter in that many of these countries, as are companies at home and banking practices at home, are on an unsustainable course.We can't have a banking system that's totally loaned up to Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina and Yugoslavia, but that's the direction they were going in.And some day that had to stop.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'Will these containment efforts be done in cooperation with the BIS the way Mexico was?'}]",yes,no,,,
932,938,19821116_63_4,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""We can't be too cumbersome at this point, but any Reserve Bank that wants to contribute should be in touch with Mr. Axilrod.""","Well, that's right. But let's see where we want to go from the preliminary paper. I think we're going to get it done by the next meeting. We can't be too cumbersome at this point, but any Reserve Bank that wants to contribute should be in touch with Mr. Axilrod. He has already been in touch with some people at the Reserve Banks.","[{'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'Would you think it would be helpful in making some of these very basic decisions, if some input were invited from whatever Reserve Banks might be interested in getting into the act on these studies, as far as just expressing themselves? There are some very fundamental changes in the wind and I would think that anyone within the System who had intelligent input to offer should be encouraged. I think we ought to hear the Reserve Bank points of view as well as those of the [Board] staff. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'We at one time had a Committee on the Directive which got together when there were changes of this kind. Conceivably, we could revive that. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""We don't look at M1, but of course we are going to affect M1 by what we do.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, ""We don\'t look at M1"" is a little strong.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'I want to put it that way, though.Even if we never published the figure on M1 or looked at it or anything else, in trying to steer M2 we could have a process that would have big effects on actual M1 or the availability of Ml.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'It would inevitably have to work that way.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': 'Would you think it would be helpful in making some of these very basic decisions, if some input were invited from whatever Reserve Banks might be interested in getting into the act on these studies, as far as just expressing themselves?There are some very fundamental changes in the wind and I would think that anyone within the System who had intelligent input to offer should be encouraged.I think we ought to hear the Reserve Bank points of view as well as those of the [Board] staff.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'We at one time had a Committee on the Directive which got together when there were changes of this kind.Conceivably, we could revive that.'}]",yes,no,,,
933,939,19821221_167_12,MR. GUFFEY.,"""It looks to be very stable on a quarterly basis, but if you look at it on a monthly basis, just taking this year as an example, it has ranged from about 4.4 percent growth in February and what would be 4.5 percent in December, if we hit that [estimate], up to about 14 percent.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""What I said was: It is better than M1 and I know of no alternative at the moment. And because of those uncertainties, I think we have to use a lot of flexibility--in effect give a lot of attention to how much movement of interest rates we're willing to tolerate to shut off an excessive growth of M2 or to stimulate growth that is too low. If we're not awfully careful, we're going to be chasing an aggregate the demand for which is being changed by financial innovation rather than something fundamental going on in the economy. That's why I want to shift adjust this as soon as [possible]. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Guffey. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': '--the new accounts for businesses, which may in effect end the prohibition of interest on demand balances, may come along soon or it may not.Who knows what is going on?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': ""We'll all reserve judgment.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Guffey.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Chairman.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Wait just a second.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'You started out talking about the flow impacts for M2 and how they are off the wall; it surprised me that you concluded that M2 is what we ought to be targeting on.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Flexibly.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': ""What I said was: It is better than M1 and I know of no alternative at the moment.And because of those uncertainties, I think we have to use a lot of flexibility--in effect give a lot of attention to how much movement of interest rates we're willing to tolerate to shut off an excessive growth of M2 or to stimulate growth that is too low.If we're not awfully careful, we're going to be chasing an aggregate the demand for which is being changed by financial innovation rather than something fundamental going on in the economy.That's why I want to shift adjust this as soon as [possible].""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Guffey.'}]",no,,,,
934,940,19821221_237_8,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""It's very important that we maintain that, but can we use such a simple rule as we have been using when the relationships between the rule and the economy, which never were all that great, have broken down at the moment?""","I think what you might be saying, Larry, which a number of people have said--and I have great sympathy--is that the value of these rules is to discipline ourselves as much as anything. And if there are too many things to look at, one can always find some way to avoid that discipline. I guess we just have to appeal more to our internal discipline, but I think that is one of the things we have to lose. I don't want to overemphasize the difference, but very broadly I would say we were willing to emphasize some of these things so much because we were preoccupied with that need for disciplining ourselves and disciplining the economy. We were willing to accept a lot of guff, if that's the right word, and a lot of potential side effects because [the goal] was all important. It's still very important but the risks have shifted. We have made some progress on inflation; we got it turned around. It's very important that we maintain that, but can we use such a simple rule as we have been using when the relationships between the rule and the economy, which never were all that great, have broken down at the moment? So, we have to look at one to one. I don't think I am saying anything very different from what I heard around the table.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""And I think that's what I hear around the table, too. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': ""But it does have a reinflationary potential, doesn't it? Again, I'm not being critical, but isn't this fraught with danger in that regard? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'It could easily have a deflationary potential. It depends on how the judgments work out. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""If I wanted to make a comparison I'd go back longer than that; I would go back to, say, the early 1960s.I think it's much more elaborate than what was done then because we are looking at indicators much more explicitly.But it you look at enough indicators, it does get a bit eclectic.There's no question about it.And I don't think we ought to apologize for that.I think that's the way the world is at the moment, but it has some disadvantages.It would be nicer, from a number of perspectives, if we had a simple, clean-cut rule.I just don't see what that clean-cut rule is for the next six months or year anyway.And I think that's what I hear around the table, too.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROOS.', 'text': ""But it does have a reinflationary potential, doesn't it?Again, I'm not being critical, but isn't this fraught with danger in that regard?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'It could easily have a deflationary potential.It depends on how the judgments work out.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,ambiguous,
935,941,19821221_463_6,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""And the BIS wanted them to put in 50/50, particularly considering all this other stuff.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, I can't say that for sure. If it's a 50/50 split, it will be $250 million. But, frankly, the United States was the progenitor of this and we told them we, the United States, would do more than 50 percent if that was necessary. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': ""Why 50/50? Even in the United Nations, we don't take 50/50 any more. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': ""I take it the reasons we're taking BIS out of what appears to them to be a substantial risk is because they are performing the service of getting these other central banks in on the deal and that's the most efficient way to do it.Is that it?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, basically yes.We could do it all ourselves directly but there are legal problems with our doing it directly and They happen to haveBut the other substantive point is that it makes it multilateral instead of bilateral, and it's a convenient way from that standpoint.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""I thought the Are you saying it's already legally--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': ""It's already""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""It's""}, {'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': 'We'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BRADFIELD.', 'text': 'It is the'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': 'Get your Ayatollahs straight!'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'The maximum exposure would be $250 million, roughly?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, I can't say that for sure.If it's a 50/50 split, it will be $250 million.But, frankly, the United States was the progenitor of this and we told them we, the United States, would do more than 50 percent if that was necessary.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': ""Why 50/50?Even in the United Nations, we don't take 50/50 any more.""}]",no,,,,
936,942,19830209_174_4,MR. PRELL.,"""So, we have a rather restrained outlook for capital spending.""","The short-term interest rates in our forecast recede only very slightly at the same time that the inflation rate is edging downward. At current levels one would assess short-term real rates as being rather high. And if it's hard to assess the long rates, then certainly relative to the current inflation rate those too are very, very high. So, we have a rather restrained outlook for capital spending.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""So the composition of risk and the credit flows that we have do reflect, I think, this crowding out phenomenon in the context of a restraining monetary policy that's still aiming at, and should achieve, some deceleration of inflation in the context of moderate growth. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Corrigan. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""In this flow of funds chart, for example, you don't have the business borrowing by '84 getting anywhere near where it was even in '81. I have the same problem: As I look through this in terms of the sources and uses, it's almost inconceivable to me that you could produce the kind of growth that you have there without putting a lot more pressures on interest rates than-- ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""It's that 40 percent increase in profits! ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""We do have continuing pressures sustaining what are, in effect, high real short-term interest rates.And that does lend itself to an unusual type of economic recovery.We have reasonably weak investment in the first half of this recovery.Housing starts do move back up, but it isn't a tremendously robust improvement we see going into 1983 and 1984.So the composition of risk and the credit flows that we have do reflect, I think, this crowding out phenomenon in the context of a restraining monetary policy that's still aiming at, and should achieve, some deceleration of inflation in the context of moderate growth.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Corrigan.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""In this flow of funds chart, for example, you don't have the business borrowing by '84 getting anywhere near where it was even in '81.I have the same problem: As I look through this in terms of the sources and uses, it's almost inconceivable to me that you could produce the kind of growth that you have there without putting a lot more pressures on interest rates than--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""It's that 40 percent increase in profits!""}]",yes,yes,utterance,,
937,943,19830524_106_7,MR. CORRIGAN.,"""That's not going to last forever.""","Mr. Chairman, with regard to the near term, I'm inclined to the view that we'll probably do better than the staff forecast in terms of real growth and maybe even in terms of inflation. But I'm not nearly as sanguine about 1984, certainly. I think for some of the reasons Mr. Martin and Mr. Solomon suggested on the international front, we're by no means out of the woods there. But in addition to that, I must say in looking at the budget process and the body language that it is associated with, it doesn't seem to me that any real progress has been made on the so-called structural deficit--maybe some, but certainly nothing to write home about. But on top of that I do think we have to recognize that there is a lot of pent up pressure out there to raise prices. I think we're going to be able to avoid a manifestation of that pressure, perhaps for a period of time, simply because the productivity/unit labor cost phenomenon is working almost perfectly right now. That's not going to last forever. So, as I say, the near term looks fine, but I'm just not sure about 1984. And, looking at the staff's implied forecast, it gets a little hard for me to imagine out in 1984 how we really can keep those interest rates where they have them with underlying conditions what they are.","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'The fact that M1 is behaving in the screwy way that we all expected and that there seems to be a permanent shift toward holding a large savings component in Ml balances in NOWs and Super NOWs should not [lead us to] generalize that there has been that big an increase in the money supply. I had the feeling that for good and rational and sufficient reasons we deemphasized Ml. And now our psychology and our thinking as well as that of the markets seems to be creeping back to a situation where everybody is paying attention to Ml and these weekly numbers. I would just take exception to the generalization that, in terms of a stimulus to the economy, the money supply has increased that much. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Corrigan. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Even though we're not getting into monetary policy discussions now, I want to take issue with what Bob Black said.I don't see that the money supply has increased that much.M2 and M3 are either in their cones or a little below.The credit aggregates, both narrow and broad, are in their target areas.The fact that M1 is behaving in the screwy way that we all expected and that there seems to be a permanent shift toward holding a large savings component in Ml balances in NOWs and Super NOWs should not [lead us to] generalize that there has been that big an increase in the money supply.I had the feeling that for good and rational and sufficient reasons we deemphasized Ml.And now our psychology and our thinking as well as that of the markets seems to be creeping back to a situation where everybody is paying attention to Ml and these weekly numbers.I would just take exception to the generalization that, in terms of a stimulus to the economy, the money supply has increased that much.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Corrigan.'}]",yes,no,,,
938,944,19830524_582_1,MS. TEETERS.,"""A more honest way of saying it is when the economy shows some--""",A more honest way of saying it is when the economy shows some--,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That's what we're saying. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""That's all it says. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""We're going to take a little precautionary snugging. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That's comes as close to saying that as I can devise. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Well, I'll be glad to back off. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': '[is high] although M2 and M3 are falling below.We ought to drop the ""while recognizing that.""'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Like the way I said it originally.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'Or leave the order the way it is but take out the word ""while"" and just say ""recognizing that [Ml] growth...even though M2 and M3 are below.""'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think the result of that is that it gives a little more emphasis on Ml, but I--'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'A more honest directive would say that.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""It's pretty honest as near as I can see.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""I don't think it is.I think a more honest directive would say we are worrying about too strong a recovery and even though we don't pay too much attention to Ml, when it gets to be this big we would pay some attention to it.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That's what we're saying.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""That's all it says.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""We're going to take a little precautionary snugging.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That's comes as close to saying that as I can devise.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Well, I'll be glad to back off.""}]",yes,no,,,
939,945,19830524_644_1,MR. ROBERTS.,"""You have to put it in because that's the only reason we're talking about snugging.""",You have to put it in because that's the only reason we're talking about snugging.,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think at this point I\'d be inclined to put in ""only slightly."" ""The action was taken against the background of M2 and M3 remaining slightly below the rates of growth of 9 and 8 percent respectively established earlier for the quarter and within their long-term ranges, M1 growing well above the anticipated levels for some time, and evidence of some acceleration in the rate of business recovery. Lesser restraint would be appropriate in the context of more pronounced slowing in growth of the broader monetary aggregates relative to the paths implied by the long-term ranges and a sharp deceleration of Ml."" '}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'Why put in that last part about deceleration of Ml? That again is raising its importance. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""If there is one thing we've got to do it's eliminate the participle, even if it--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'Well, only slightly below--'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'Couldn\'t we say ""While Ml, which we normally deemphasize, was growing unusually rapidly""?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': '""And the economy, which we pay no attention to, was strengthening""!'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': '""The Committee seeks in the short run to increase slightly the degree of reserve restraint.""I think at this point I\'d be inclined to put in ""only slightly.""""The action was taken against the background of M2 and M3 remaining slightly below the rates of growth of 9 and 8 percent respectively established earlier for the quarter and within their long-term ranges, M1 growing well above the anticipated levels for some time, and evidence of some acceleration in the rate of business recovery.Lesser restraint would be appropriate in the context of more pronounced slowing in growth of the broader monetary aggregates relative to the paths implied by the long-term ranges and a sharp deceleration of Ml.""'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'Why put in that last part about deceleration of Ml?That again is raising its importance.'}]",yes,yes,,,
940,946,19830713_932_3,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""That's what bothers me.""","That's what bothers me about it, just in terms of explaining it. It seems to me that we'd have to say that for all this talking we've been doing about velocity changing, our forecast and our policy is based upon the notion that velocity hasn't changed. That's what bothers me.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""In a word we're saying this is our central feeling about the GNP and the central feeling is that velocity patterns probably haven't changed at all. That's what makes me uncomfortable. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROBERTS.', 'text': 'If we had 6 percent growth in money, which is right in the middle of our range, and got a 10 percent middle range nominal GNP, assuming 3-1/2 percent velocity-- '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That's what you have to assume--a 3-1/2 velocity, which would not be outrageous but is higher than the average somebody gave me for the second year. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROBERTS.', 'text': 'Higher than the 2.7 we heard. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Whereas 5 to 9 percent is pretty neutral.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROBERTS.', 'text': 'You could have, could you not, a 10 percent nominal GNP, 4th quarter over 4th quarter?I think that could still be consistent.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, it could be.I can't put it that sharply.I can't say that with 8 percent it is impossible to have an 11 percent [nominal] GNP, but I think that's coming back to pretty much saying that velocity patterns haven't changed at all.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'What is the staff--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""In a word we're saying this is our central feeling about the GNP and the central feeling is that velocity patterns probably haven't changed at all.That's what makes me uncomfortable.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROBERTS.', 'text': 'If we had 6 percent growth in money, which is right in the middle of our range, and got a 10 percent middle range nominal GNP, assuming 3-1/2 percent velocity--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""That's what you have to assume--a 3-1/2 velocity, which would not be outrageous but is higher than the average somebody gave me for the second year.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROBERTS.', 'text': 'Higher than the 2.7 we heard.'}]",yes,no,,,
941,947,19831004_50_6,MR. BLACK.,"""Even that looks a little better in that we have more signs of a pickup abroad now than we had maybe a month or so ago.""","The press has been devoting a great deal of attention to discussing the possible slowdown occurring in the economy. But as we've gone around the table here, I think Jim Kichline and others have captured this very well with regard to the straws in the wind, which leads me to think that this a pretty normal, healthy sort of recovery and one that still doesn't need an undue [effort] on our part to prop it up. It looks as if the recovery is moving into a more mature stage now, and even abstracting from the shortage in automobile inventories and the elimination of some of the sales rebates, I think consumer spending has slowed some and housing has clearly slowed a great deal and probably will slow more. But now we are moving into the stage where I would think that inventory rebuilding and some expansion in capital expenditures would begin to assume part of that role. Really, the only weak thing of any significance that I see in the economy is the export sector. Even that looks a little better in that we have more signs of a pickup abroad now than we had maybe a month or so ago. I think we are in pretty good shape. I do agree with Jerry that there is a growth in protectionism in places we never expected to see, and I share his fear that these wage pressures are going to mount before we expect them to, although they do look darn good at the present time.","[{'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""By and large our directors who are involved in agriculture have a more optimistic outlook in terms of the inflation in agricultural prices, although in some cases it may be more pessimistic from their own self interest point of view. Abstracting from this overall international thing, my own view continues to be that in the near term--and by that I mean out, say, to the middle of 1984 anyway--the risks or dangers or whatever you want to call them are on the up side. What that really means in the context of Frank Morris' question--I think he was questioning when crowding out really will become a problem as opposed to the kind of problem it is now--is that it is probably going to be sooner rather than later. And, that's about it. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Black. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""The commentary we get from them rather forcefully suggests that most of the official forecasts, including the Agriculture Department's own forecast, have not adequately taken into account the manner and way in which the PIK program is going to free up very substantial quantities of inventory that have to go into the marketplace.By and large our directors who are involved in agriculture have a more optimistic outlook in terms of the inflation in agricultural prices, although in some cases it may be more pessimistic from their own self interest point of view.Abstracting from this overall international thing, my own view continues to be that in the near term--and by that I mean out, say, to the middle of 1984 anyway--the risks or dangers or whatever you want to call them are on the up side.What that really means in the context of Frank Morris' question--I think he was questioning when crowding out really will become a problem as opposed to the kind of problem it is now--is that it is probably going to be sooner rather than later.And, that's about it.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Black.'}]",yes,no,,,
942,948,19831004_330_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""I don't have any trouble with the language.""",I don't have any trouble with the language. I agree that the language in its general way covers what we're talking about. But it doesn't mention the international situation explicitly. I don't know whether that's wise anyway.,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I agree with that to the extent that if we get too aggressive--and we're talking in a limited range here, I understand--and take too many risks of having the aggregates and the economy moving up on us, it may help to bring a little glimmer of hope to the LDCs for three weeks, but then we will put an arrow through their hearts. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'You know, Paul, I think this language in the next sentence is just perfect. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Oh, I think the language covers it all right. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'The language, you notice, does not qualify less restraint but it does qualify more restraint by saying ""somewhat"" more restraint. And I think maybe that\'s a reasonable compromise. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I get troubled by this whole argument that says that the solution to the LDC debt problem is [for us] to ease monetary policy.The real solution is beyond our control: It's a tighter fiscal policy.But I think there is some danger in overplaying that and ending up with just the results that we're trying to avoid.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I agree with that to the extent that if we get too aggressive--and we're talking in a limited range here, I understand--and take too many risks of having the aggregates and the economy moving up on us, it may help to bring a little glimmer of hope to the LDCs for three weeks, but then we will put an arrow through their hearts.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'You know, Paul, I think this language in the next sentence is just perfect.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Oh, I think the language covers it all right.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'The language, you notice, does not qualify less restraint but it does qualify more restraint by saying ""somewhat"" more restraint.And I think maybe that\'s a reasonable compromise.'}]",yes,no,,,
943,949,19831115_384_4,VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.,"""They would all expect the price of gold to go up instead of going down.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. ROBERTS.', 'text': 'Just a quick question on Schroeder, Meunchmeyer, [Hengst & Company]: Did they have a lot of foreign exchange positions in the market? Was it a fairly small bank? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': 'There were no foreign exchange implications in that problem. It was local. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROBERTS.', 'text': 'Just the bank? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': ""That rate, for reasons I can't entirely explain, seems to be consistently a little higher than the so-called Gensaki rate, which is a [rate in the] much more liquid repurchase market.It seems to have rates that are slightly lower and that's the rate we would get on our investments.So, we want to try to bring about a change.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'And the Bank of Japan is sympathetic and discussions are going on.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': 'The Bank of Japan is sympathetic but it is always a long and tedious process to have to negotiate anything like this with the Finance Ministry, so it has taken time.But we are trying to work it out.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Are there any other comments or questions?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""Maybe this isn't the right time or maybe it is: Does anybody want to comment on the international debt situation?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Maybe we should just leave that for tomorrow in view of the time.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROBERTS.', 'text': 'Just a quick question on Schroeder, Meunchmeyer, [Hengst & Company]: Did they have a lot of foreign exchange positions in the market?Was it a fairly small bank?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': 'There were no foreign exchange implications in that problem.It was local.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROBERTS.', 'text': 'Just the bank?'}]",no,,,,
944,950,19831220_216_3,MR. KICHLINE.,"""So, it has done very well as a share or absolutely.""","Well, it's up because the profit share and notional margins have been rising. We think it will be at the highest level at the end of this year since 1977-78--a six-year high. So, it has done very well as a share or absolutely. Two particular comments: First, going back to the staff's inflation presentation, we believe that corporations essentially price off some notion of unit labor cost and a markup over that. In effect, what they're doing is looking at some notion of trend growth in productivity; and trend growth in productivity, we think, is better than they may be using. So, it is showing up here in terms of attempts to price fairly aggressively and they're getting more profits than they might otherwise think. My second point is a technical comment: In measuring the GNP deflator, as you know, import prices are subtracted out in the short run. In the first half of this year import prices actually declined and were about unchanged in the third quarter, so that for much of this year we think that substraction process has artificially raised the GNP deflator because the benefits of those import prices measured in consumption, investment, or whatever, come along with a lag. So, our story is that this has been an unusual year.","[{'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'They are close to the increase in 1975, but are substantially above the cyclical performance for the first year of a recovery. Two comments with regard to that spread-- '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'If I may just interrupt you: The increase in profits is stronger? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Correct. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'How about the relationship of profits to GNP or corporate product? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""With regard to inflation, our projection would be higher than the staff's and as a result--this may be ahead of the discussion--I probably would join those who say a little snugging up now would serve us well in the future.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Kichline.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': ""On Mr. Corrigan's point, we don't have a chart here.We have all sorts of numbers but he has the chart.We do have very clearly, though, a situation where we assume that unit labor costs in 1983 are rising about 1 percent and our deflator forecast is something like a 4-1/4 percent increase.So, it's a very wide spread.It shows up in corporate profits, and corporate profits in this cycle --for the first four quarters of the recovery, assuming our fourth-quarter forecast is correct--have risen more than in any other postwar cycle.They are close to the increase in 1975, but are substantially above the cyclical performance for the first year of a recovery.Two comments with regard to that spread--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'If I may just interrupt you: The increase in profits is stronger?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'Correct.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'How about the relationship of profits to GNP or corporate product?'}]",yes,no,,,
945,951,19840131_304_3,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""There was not any great consensus for either one of those, but if you added together all the people who thought there should be a little reduction in one or the other, there was some sentiment""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'And everybody is for discipline. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'If you get very flexible, somebody will come and push you. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Not if you have a chance. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""Not if you have flexible discipline. They can't push you but so far. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I haven't noticed anybody coming out for alternative III, so that narrows the options.I think we ought to return in the morning and see whether we can dispose of this after mulling on these comments.We are scheduled to reconvene at 9:00 in the morning?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': '9:00 a.m. (Executive Session)'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I tried to draft a somewhat different directive, which is being typed.I would judge that the consensus, when we get down to the language, is to give a little more weight to M1 but not full weight.I think everybody is groping for some combination of flexibility and discipline.Those two things are hard to combine.We can combine them in an individual's mind, but it's a little harder to combine them in a directive.But that seems to be the recurrent theme I heard yesterday.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'Everybody is for flexibility.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'And everybody is for discipline.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'If you get very flexible, somebody will come and push you.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Not if you have a chance.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""Not if you have flexible discipline.They can't push you but so far.""}]",no,,,,
946,952,19840327_541_2,MR. AXILROD.,"""We have a drop of around 7 percent, but I think a lot of that is the distortions of the excess and required reserves in March.""","Well, we have a drop there also, and it may even have dropped a little more than [our estimate]. We have a drop of around 7 percent, but I think a lot of that is the distortions of the excess and required reserves in March. It looks as if they are increasing about the same as they increased in February--at about an 8 percent annual rate. So this variation is largely the variation in excess reserves and some variation in borrowing. It's a sort of sustained expansion in the reserves that is providing the base for the deposit expansion.","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Yes. Our estimates indicate a relatively low [or slightly negative growth] and assume excess reserves a little lower than I think is going to be the case at the end of this month. For March we would have a drop in total reserves but I think it is best to assume that reserves are about unchanged following the 19 percent increase. And the monetary base is falling to only a small increase of 2 to 3 percent. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'What do you have for nonborrowed reserves? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""As a matter of fact, the excess reserves seem to be running high in this two-week period in the latter part of March as well.But we think the excess reserve build-up has been accompanied by a high funds rate, so it isn't as if people are taking excess reserves and have gotten rid of them aggressively into market instruments or things like that.I don't think that the build-up of excess reserves is pushing loans out or pushing money out.I think it is really rather transitory.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Do you have an estimate for reserves and the monetary base for March handy?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Yes.Our estimates indicate a relatively low [or slightly negative growth] and assume excess reserves a little lower than I think is going to be the case at the end of this month.For March we would have a drop in total reserves but I think it is best to assume that reserves are about unchanged following the 19 percent increase.And the monetary base is falling to only a small increase of 2 to 3 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'What do you have for nonborrowed reserves?'}]",yes,yes,,,
947,953,19840522_93_1,MR. BOEHNE.,"""Well, I'll lead off.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I heard a motion and second. Without objection. We will continue at 9:15 a.m. tomorrow. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.] '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Any comments? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ROBERTS.', 'text': ""But the relationship they put on the short or the future can determine whether it's profitable to them.They can hedge it but at a loss initially.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MARTIN.', 'text': 'Well, when the markets see these spot and futures spreads are not necessarily holding--.You can be completely hedged and if the spreads change, you may lose.There is no such thing as a perfect hedge.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Any other questions?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'Where do we stand on the debt limit legislation?Is that posing great problems for you?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'Well, it poses great problems for the Treasury and the functioning of the government.I think they have to begin something in the course of this week because the Congress is due to recess.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'Are they out of money?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'They will be out.I think they probably have enough to last beyond when the Congress goes home but not until the Congress comes back.They have to get action by the 23rd or 24th.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Any questions?We need to ratify the transactions.I heard a motion and second.Without objection.We will continue at 9:15 a.m. tomorrow.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.]'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Any comments?'}]",no,,,,
948,954,19840717_138_18,MR. MARTIN.,"""As for capacity utilization, it's difficult to factor in all that retrofitting of plant into the bare number of the domestic capacity utilization and, unfortunately, no one has figured a really good way to figure the capacity utilization of all those thousands of firms around the Pacific Basin and in Europe and the developing countries that are selling to us.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""And I'm concerned that the makings of a stronger and longer expansion are likely to leave us eventually out on a limb with high rates of inflation. Well, I guess I've expressed no more than my usual prejudice on the subject. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Would you be reassured if we all thought there would be a recession in '86? ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'I would certainly be reassured, but I would prefer then to try to modulate that rather than run into it helter skelter. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Martin. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': ""But if the numbers turn out pretty good through '85, as they are projected here, the chance is that it means we will be into a rather long and continued period of expansion that will carry us to a very low rate of unemployment and considerably higher rates of inflation.That seems to me the likely outcome of the present numbers being true.At most, the staff projections would get us to a growth rate below 3 percent, which would suggest that we are tapering off toward an even lower rate of expansion than potential that theoretically could be sustainable for a very long time.It's contrary to history.The economy either expands or contracts over time.And I'm concerned that the makings of a stronger and longer expansion are likely to leave us eventually out on a limb with high rates of inflation.Well, I guess I've expressed no more than my usual prejudice on the subject.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Would you be reassured if we all thought there would be a recession in '86?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'I would certainly be reassured, but I would prefer then to try to modulate that rather than run into it helter skelter.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Martin.'}]",yes,,,,
949,955,19840717_495_5,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""The two most marked examples, I think, are the Canadians and the British.""","Let me make a general comment on the subject. More generally, as I read the situation, economic developments abroad are quite unsatisfactory in terms even of earlier expectations, which weren't all that buoyant. I don't want to overdramatize this, but they are just not moving with any speed and alacrity. I don't think there's any doubt that our interest rates are complicating things. The two most marked examples, I think, are the Canadians and the British. The British talk proudly about decoupling; they don't think they're decoupled today. They've had problems domestically that have aggravated this situation, but they are very unhappy about having to see this very sharp increase in interest rates that they currently have when the economy is doing nothing and they have a 12 percent unemployment rate. In Canada, the unemployment rate is between 11 and 12 percent. It has sat there for a long time even though the economy is growing, mainly because of exports to the United States. On the continent of Europe and in Japan, the economies are not exceeding our earlier expectations, which weren't all that buoyant. If anything, they're falling a bit below. Is that true, Mr. Truman?","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'Does anybody have any sense as to whether that indeed has been successful and what the outlook for its success is? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': ""Well, it's awfully hard to speak very generally. The conditions vary a great deal from country to country and situation to situation. Obviously, the Canadians found great difficulty in keeping their interest rates very far away from reflecting the rise in ours. The Germans have been seeking to avoid following the increases in U.S. interest rates but, as I said here, it has resulted in quite large amounts of intervention in the exchange market. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Now is as good a time as any to get that in.Mr. Meek.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': 'Did you call on me?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, whoever goes first.I guess you go first.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': 'I usually go first.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ROBERTS.', 'text': 'Stay in there, Sam!'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Fight for your rights, Sam!'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think we ought to follow all the precedents.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.]'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Questions or comments?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'I have a question on this decoupling of foreign interest rates from U.S. interest rates.Some foreign central bankers take a great deal of pride in talking about that.Does anybody have any sense as to whether that indeed has been successful and what the outlook for its success is?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': ""Well, it's awfully hard to speak very generally.The conditions vary a great deal from country to country and situation to situation.Obviously, the Canadians found great difficulty in keeping their interest rates very far away from reflecting the rise in ours.The Germans have been seeking to avoid following the increases in U.S. interest rates but, as I said here, it has resulted in quite large amounts of intervention in the exchange market.""}]",yes,,,,
950,956,19841218_294_13,MR. PARTEE.,"""I mean if lowering rates isn't producing some kind of a calamitous result internally.""","--and somehow the latter times strike me as being more important. But we always have to be very careful in using M1 because there can be--as there was, I think, in 1982--shifts in the demand for money and we have to be sensitive to that. We don't want to ride our money supply target without regard to what is happening in other elements of the economy or in other aggregates or credit or in market conditions. But among the aggregates I think it is the most reliable and the one that we ought to put the most confidence in. I agree with Pres that we ought to reconsider the long-range targets for 1985. I'm inclined to think that we ought to put M1 growth back to 4 to 8 percent as it was for this year both because we have room for 4 to 4-1/2 percent real growth in the economy and because we've fallen a little short. One way to make the adjustment for the base drift would be to say ""All right, we had growth a little lower than we expected this year and we'll take a little higher growth next year if necessary to bring about this 4 to 4-1/2 percent real expansion in the economy. I think that makes a lot of sense. And I don't think in that context that it would be taken as a backing away from our inflation fighting attitude; I think it would be quite acceptable. I also agree, and I've never said this before in a meeting, that we ought to pay considerable attention to the exchange rate and we ought to do what we can to bring the exchange rate down. That also would suggest, other things equal, that when we can we ought to do things in the money sector that are apt to produce somewhat lower interest rates. By ""other things equal"" I mean if lowering rates isn't producing some kind of a calamitous result internally. I don't know whether it's going to bring the dollar down; certainly, it hasn't so far. But I suppose the weight of the evidence over time is that lower interest rates in this country might tend to do that. I wouldn't say we should make the exchange rate the target of policy [unintelligible] or something like that, but I'm very disturbed about this import situation. I think it's just going to have to be dealt with. If the exchange rate does come down--remembering also that a characteristic later on in periods of expansion is that we start to get more inflationary pressures--with lower exchange rates going through the third year of expansion, it seems to me that prices might be on the high side of the staff forecast. I guess I'd be prepared to make some price concession for getting the exchange rate down because I think it's that important a problem. I think I've answered all the questions, so I'll end at that point.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I must say it was strengthened a little by Steve's analysis yesterday but I have felt that for some time and I continue to feel it. I don't know, but I suppose we have selective memories. Lyle can remember the times when M1 didn't tell us anything. I can remember the times when it did-- ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'The two of us make a great team! '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""We are going to [need] lower interest rates because [the current rates] just won't bring forth the demand for credit to spend if people have a lower expectation for inflation and, therefore, a lower anticipation of what they will realize in terms of profit payoffs or appreciation payoffs on the investments they have made.Therefore, I just don't know where interest rates ought to be.I've had that feeling now for some while and it has grown as the years go on.That reinforces my view that we really have to look at the monetary aggregates, not interest rates, as what we hope to control.I'm trying to remember to answer the Chairman's questions, although he's left the room.My view is that M1 ought to have primary importance among the monetary aggregates.That has been my view and there is no change in it.I must say it was strengthened a little by Steve's analysis yesterday but I have felt that for some time and I continue to feel it.I don't know, but I suppose we have selective memories.Lyle can remember the times when M1 didn't tell us anything.I can remember the times when it did--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLEY.', 'text': 'The two of us make a great team!'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,
951,957,19841218_509_2,VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.,"""We could probably leave it simply ""reduce somewhat"" and not worry about the fact that since Thursday and today there has been--""","I don't know; the general trend is down. We could probably leave it simply ""reduce somewhat"" and not worry about the fact that since Thursday and today there has been--","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Theoretically, tomorrow--but who knows about these theories--there's going to be a lot of borrowing and the funds rate is going to be 9 percent or 10 percent maybe at 3:00 in the afternoon. In fact, the funds rate is going to be 18 percent and [a major bank] is going to come in and borrow $2 billion because the funds rate is 18 percent! Now, there may be a miss here in the figures, so I think this is just a question that's-- ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Since it doesn't get published for 6 weeks, it seems to me that-- ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""It doesn't make that much difference probably, but--. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, I\'m wondering whether that kind of language wouldn\'t be less misleading somehow.""The Committee seeks to maintain the recently reduced pressures on...""'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""I think that's a better way to do it.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': ""On Thursday, presuming our numbers are half-way near correct, the borrowing level we're going to publish will be more like $500 or $600 million for that one-week period that ends on that Wednesday.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Theoretically, tomorrow--but who knows about these theories--there's going to be a lot of borrowing and the funds rate is going to be 9 percent or 10 percent maybe at 3:00 in the afternoon.In fact, the funds rate is going to be 18 percent and [a major bank] is going to come in and borrow $2 billion because the funds rate is 18 percent!Now, there may be a miss here in the figures, so I think this is just a question that's--""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': ""Since it doesn't get published for 6 weeks, it seems to me that--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""It doesn't make that much difference probably, but--.""}]",yes,no,,,
952,958,19850213_165_11,MR. BOYKIN.,"""Now that that is a very real situation, they are saying: ""Well, when it gets to $20 we're going to have some real problems.""""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""It may not have the national impact, much as he has suggested, but that does not mean that there will not be great social and other disruptions in that area. And indeed, it could get out of hand. I would also want to note quickly, having talked to the Farm Credit people, bankers, large input suppliers to the agricultural sector, as well as to some Congressmen, that I fairly well concluded that there is not a great deal that monetary policy can do to alleviate that problem, at least in the very near term--I'm talking about 1985 and quite likely 1986. I'm not sure that there is a role for this Committee with respect to taking action to try to alleviate the problem that rests in the agricultural sector. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Boykin. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""[in the first half] and maybe some action by the Federal Reserve to move against that.I would also want to note for the Committee, as a follow-up on a comment of Si Keehn, that the condition of the agricultural sector in the high plains of the Midwest is a very serious problem.It may not have the national impact, much as he has suggested, but that does not mean that there will not be great social and other disruptions in that area.And indeed, it could get out of hand.I would also want to note quickly, having talked to the Farm Credit people, bankers, large input suppliers to the agricultural sector, as well as to some Congressmen, that I fairly well concluded that there is not a great deal that monetary policy can do to alleviate that problem, at least in the very near term--I'm talking about 1985 and quite likely 1986.I'm not sure that there is a role for this Committee with respect to taking action to try to alleviate the problem that rests in the agricultural sector.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Boykin.'}]",no,,,,
953,959,19850710_99_4,MR. KEEHN.,"""But there are other parts of the economy--autos, for example--that are doing well and as I talk to people about next year they continue to think they are going to have a good year next year.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""I am encouraged by signs that I see in the financial markets in response to what we have done already. There is strength in the stock market; I am very impressed at the response in the long-term bond market, where we have gotten more bang than I expected we would get. And so far as the consumer sector is concerned, the Michigan Survey of consumer confidence, which had been tending to show some deterioration in the last six months, turned up again pretty substantially in the month of June. So, it just seems to me that the level of pessimism around here is a little beyond what the situation merits, and that is one reason our forecast is significantly higher than the Board staff's forecast. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Keehn. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""I remember; I was at the Treasury.There was real concern that we were going into recession.For some reason, after the Cuban missile crisis, consumers decided to up their spending.Maybe they were happy to be still alive.I don't know what the connection was, but the recession of '62 disappeared very rapidly.I am encouraged by signs that I see in the financial markets in response to what we have done already.There is strength in the stock market; I am very impressed at the response in the long-term bond market, where we have gotten more bang than I expected we would get.And so far as the consumer sector is concerned, the Michigan Survey of consumer confidence, which had been tending to show some deterioration in the last six months, turned up again pretty substantially in the month of June.So, it just seems to me that the level of pessimism around here is a little beyond what the situation merits, and that is one reason our forecast is significantly higher than the Board staff's forecast.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Keehn.'}]",no,,,,
954,960,19851217_79_7,MR. LINDSEY.,"""The leading relationships in the '80s, which I am not at all sure are as systematic as the monetarists would have us believe, show up best for M1 and less so for M2.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Partee. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I was just going to refer to chart 2 here too, Dave, which is the lagged relationship. It certainly doesn't look very good. Indeed, it looks to me as if these last four quarters have been just about as bad as it can get if one assumes that the only reason we follow M1 is for its predictive relationship to GNP. Did you try other kinds of lags and more complicated lags or anything like that in your effort to make sense of this? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""If you look at that quarterly model, it looks like '81 was way down but '82 and '83 not so much.Presumably, in '81 it was the transition to NOWs.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': ""That's right; nationwide NOWs were introduced at the first of the year.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': '[Unintelligible.]'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""My recollection is that we were very surprised at the strength of M1 in '82.I don't--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': 'Well, we were surprised at how low interest rates got.If we had known in advance that that was going to happen, we would have been less surprised.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': '[Unintelligible] centered around [unintelligible].Governor Partee.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I was just going to refer to chart 2 here too, Dave, which is the lagged relationship.It certainly doesn't look very good.Indeed, it looks to me as if these last four quarters have been just about as bad as it can get if one assumes that the only reason we follow M1 is for its predictive relationship to GNP.Did you try other kinds of lags and more complicated lags or anything like that in your effort to make sense of this?""}]",yes,yes,sentence,neutral,
955,961,19851217_468_2,MR. PARTEE.,"""After all, this is the most serious effort that has been made in a great many years to move consistently toward a balanced budget.""","Well, it might happen. After all, this is the most serious effort that has been made in a great many years to move consistently toward a balanced budget. And I think it will have a psychological effect so far as new programs are concerned.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I think we do have a window of opportunity. There is a good deal of expectation that this will happen in the market. I think the budget balancing bill--I doubt too that it's going to materialize as a serious move--but it gives a basis or reasoning that I think even foreigners could understand. And so-- ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': '[Unintelligible.] '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GRIFFITH.', 'text': 'So for that reason and other discussions that have gone on here about concerns that 2 percent growth may not be what we want to happen--or at least not sufficient or desirable--we find ourselves in the Guffey-Boehne camp at somewhere between alternatives A and B, with some ease.I think we would feel a little more strongly that there ought to be a discount rate cut to get the short rates moving downward.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""You're missing, Governor Partee.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""Well, I hadn't wanted to take any lead in this because it's you people who will suffer the consequences.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""We'll just blame whatever goes wrong on Mr. Partee!""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""Remember, you're going to be on a fixed income!""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': ""I indicated before that my preference would be to ease up a little in terms of a somewhat lower level of short rates.I think we do have a window of opportunity.There is a good deal of expectation that this will happen in the market.I think the budget balancing bill--I doubt too that it's going to materialize as a serious move--but it gives a basis or reasoning that I think even foreigners could understand.And so--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': '[Unintelligible.]'}]",yes,no,,,
956,962,19860212_362_1,MR. AXILROD.,"""That's what I was [thinking]--rounding in my head a bit.""",That's what I was [thinking]--rounding in my head a bit.,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Presumably, we don\'t want to go with short-term targets down to the 1/4 of a percentage point. When I look at ""B"" I would assume that we don\'t want to go with 5-3/4 or 6-3/4 percent. '}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'As I understand Steve\'s earlier comments, ""B"" is roughly consistent with what we had initially specified. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, we said 6 to 8 percent then, so it is fine for M3 and it is okay for Ml. It isn't okay for M2, just talking-- ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'It does to me.We now have a ""might"" and a ""would,"" and the emphasis of your comments suggests to me that a ""would"" ought to be where ""might"" was.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Okay.We don't want to do all the drafting [of the language] right now, but your point is noted.[What] way do you come out on these numbers that we have to put down because of this?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'I would go with ""B.""'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Let me just make an immediate comment.Presumably, we don\'t want to go with short-term targets down to the 1/4 of a percentage point.When I look at ""B"" I would assume that we don\'t want to go with 5-3/4 or 6-3/4 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'As I understand Steve\'s earlier comments, ""B"" is roughly consistent with what we had initially specified.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""Well, we said 6 to 8 percent then, so it is fine for M3 and it is okay for Ml.It isn't okay for M2, just talking--""}]",yes,yes,-5 sentences,,
957,963,19860520_365_5,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""A more active mode in which to put it is to take one example, one Wayne took: If we see a positive desirability of doing it if we can get something out of the [other countries], that is one possibility.""","[Unintelligible] could have a big fight about it. More generally, putting the question operationally, there have been times in the past when, quite on its own, the Open Market Committee was not very eager to intervene and--to exaggerate a bit--had to be dragged kicking and screaming to the table. I don't sense that such an atmosphere exists now, under the appropriate circumstances, but I want to confirm that. That's just the broadest way to put it. A more active mode in which to put it is to take one example, one Wayne took: If we see a positive desirability of doing it if we can get something out of the [other countries], that is one possibility.","[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Just taking that away might create a more stable climate, which would give us more options. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'You said we could take that away unilaterally. It would have to be in the context of the agreement with the Treasury. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""I think that's [unintelligible] maybe. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'In which case there might be so much confusion-- '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'It would have to be a moment that was really creating the right psychological impression.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'In a sense, to have any fundamental impact in the long run, it would have to be unsterilized and run fundamentally counter to the policy--in talking about the situation you described.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'The foreign exchange market may have been somewhat dominated in recent months by market uncertainty as to whether or not our policy leaders in the United States would prefer a lower dollar.It seems to me at this point in time, [given] the time lags that we have in regard to knowing what we have accomplished, that it is not a desirable move for us to have an appreciably lower dollar and [we should] take away that question of uncertainty.Right now someone thinks someone is going to try to push it lower.Just taking that away might create a more stable climate, which would give us more options.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'You said we could take that away unilaterally.It would have to be in the context of the agreement with the Treasury.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""I think that's [unintelligible] maybe.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'In which case there might be so much confusion--'}]",yes,no,,,
958,964,19860709_256_3,MR. BOYKIN.,"""Not only has our situation gotten a little worse, we expect it to deteriorate even further and possibly at a bit faster pace.""","Well, Mr. Chairman, as I have been reporting, things have not been going all that well in our District. The Eleventh District economy seems to be about the weakest in the country. Not only has our situation gotten a little worse, we expect it to deteriorate even further and possibly at a bit faster pace. The Texas unemployment rate in June rose to 10-1/2 percent, and that's the highest level in modern times, certainly, for Texas. New Mexico and Louisiana expect to show increases in unemployment when their data become available. The last report for Louisiana was 13 percent and that's probably on the way up. As conditions worsen in energy, construction, and manufacturing, that is having some fairly severe effects on our financial institutions. If you read the papers, it's pretty hard not to see one of our Texas organizations being featured in one of the articles. Their performance has really not been all that good! Looking at it from a supervisory standpoint, we don't [rate] our major bank holding companies very high from a supervisory level! Those that seem to be doing a little better we wonder about, because some of their major subsidiaries haven't been examined for a year or year and a half and that makes us a little concerned over what the true situation might be. Now, I tried very hard to find some positive elements of strength in our District to report this time, but I just was not successful. Aside from this regional report, though, I continue to feel with regard to the broader picture that there will be some modest pickup in the second half of this year. Our forecast is in the middle of the forecasts of the Reserve Bank presidents. And we think this is sustainable into 1987, if there's some monetary stimulus that comes about to offset the economic drag of the uncertainties that are inherent in the fiscal environment.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'So, I find this very disturbing. For months I have been thinking that monetary policy has been doing everything it could to produce a healthy economy. I am less confident of that today because of the seeming failure of the real economy to respond to what the financial economy has been doing. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""It looks like the string we're pushing on is a wet string! ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Boykin. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""I see a sense of contrast between [the economy and] the financial numbers.If I were sitting on a desert island and had only the financial numbers, I would say there is a tremendous boom going on in the United States.But if you look at the numbers for real activity, the last month gives no encouragement that we are going to get a faster rate of growth in the third quarter.The new orders figures certainly don't suggest it.The deceleration in the rate of payroll employment gains doesn't suggest it.I really don't understand what is going on out there.The system is not responding according to the rule books that I would follow.So, I find this very disturbing.For months I have been thinking that monetary policy has been doing everything it could to produce a healthy economy.I am less confident of that today because of the seeming failure of the real economy to respond to what the financial economy has been doing.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""It looks like the string we're pushing on is a wet string!""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Boykin.'}]",yes,,,,
959,965,19860923_377_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""I detect no realistic difference between ""about 8"" and ""7 to 9.""""","I detect no realistic difference between ""about 8"" and ""7 to 9."" This says ""about 7 to 9"" and maybe that is a difference. We have a nuance of difference.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""Isn't this the same discussion as last time? I think it was 7 to 9 percent, the same numbers. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""What we did was encompass different numbers for the two. I don't care: either 7 to 9 percent or about 8 percent. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': '7 to 9. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'I would think so.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Is 7 percent too low or not as an estimate?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'I think 7 to 9 percent is fine.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, the midpoint is 8 percent; 7 to 9 percent encompasses the midpoint.We won\'t say ""respectively;"" we just say--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Yes, it refers to M2 and M3.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'It refers to both at annual rates of about 7 to 9 percent.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': '9 percent is above--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, 7 percent is below.What the staff says is 8, 8-1/2 percent; that\'s roughly in the middle of 7 to 9 percent.We have this great choice of whether we say ""about 8 percent"" or ""7 to 9 percent.""The ""7 to 9 percent"" doesn\'t bother me given the behavior of these things anyway.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""Isn't this the same discussion as last time?I think it was 7 to 9 percent, the same numbers.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""What we did was encompass different numbers for the two.I don't care: either 7 to 9 percent or about 8 percent.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': '7 to 9.'}]",yes,no,,,
960,966,19861216_75_9,MR. KICHLINE.,"""It is our sense that the level of that spending is now quite high.""","The number floating around that is still preliminary, I think, is $163 billion for the current fiscal year. That's still subject to change but it's in the $160-$165 billion area. Keep in mind: that is the same number that just a matter of a few months ago was $143 billion; so they have added $20 billion. It's a case of how much you want to up the ante. We have added another $20 billion. I think there is a danger of going too far in that direction, because there were legislative changes enacted that will begin to bite. One of the issues relates to defense. We had a lot of defense spending in the second and third quarters of last year. It is our sense that the level of that spending is now quite high. We have had major weapons systems deliveries that are now coming in; they are producing these things at a very rapid rate. But we don't expect defense spending to continue to grow in real terms at a fast clip. Rather we expect, as we get into the first part of next year, that we will probably have constraints on defense spending--in part because appropriations were cut back at the Administration's request. I would say that if we are wrong, I would probably add more; that is the safe way to go now. A big question mark is the agricultural area; we have substantially more dollars in there than does the Administration. My experience over the years is that even when we do that we are always low. It looks sort of outrageous but basically it turns out to be a really important issue. I think it is too pessimistic to say that things weren't done. I think they were done. And I think they will begin to show up as time goes on.","[{'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': 'That is very close to the current CBO baseline, which I guess is $184 billion. I can think of a number of things that are likely to push that deficit up, starting from the CBO baseline, and not a heck of a lot that are likely to push it down. So it seems to me that the deficit is likely to exceed that $180 billion, perhaps considerably. I am having trouble reconciling that with what you mentioned might be the latest OMB projections. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'What is the latest OMB projection? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': '[in the Greenbook] and then removed them awhile back.Sometimes [unintelligible].'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': 'You would like those sort of numbers in the green sheets?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""I would and I gather that Martha would.I don't know--""}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'It is hard for some of us who are not mathematical whizzes to take the rates of change and to equate them to specific numbers.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': 'Jim, I continue to have problems getting a real handle on the budget outlook.I see in the Greenbook that you have a $180 billion deficit for the current fiscal year.That is very close to the current CBO baseline, which I guess is $184 billion.I can think of a number of things that are likely to push that deficit up, starting from the CBO baseline, and not a heck of a lot that are likely to push it down.So it seems to me that the deficit is likely to exceed that $180 billion, perhaps considerably.I am having trouble reconciling that with what you mentioned might be the latest OMB projections.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'What is the latest OMB projection?'}]",yes,no,,,
961,967,19861216_387_1,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""Well, you can argue the opposite on the basis of your knowledge.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'Those wealth variables we have do, I think, have bearing on M2 growth and on the broad aggregates; it makes some sense. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Does this lead you to the conclusion that the targets should be changed? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""It leads me to conclude that we probably should not reduce the ranges for the broader aggregates. My tentative idea was to cut half of one percent from the 6 to 9 percent range for this year. I don't see that there is any case for doing that. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""Well, a stock market crash would lead to a reduction in the rate of growth of liquid assets, even if people tried to improve their position or maintain it.If incomes are dropping, that's going to be difficult to do.But if that theory has any validity to it--and I am not sure it does--it means that when the financial assets start growing at about the same rate as nominal GNP, you would expect that the liquid assets would go back to their prior growth rates relative to nominal GNP.I don't know whether this makes any sense to you, Don, or not.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'Those wealth variables we have do, I think, have bearing on M2 growth and on the broad aggregates; it makes some sense.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Does this lead you to the conclusion that the targets should be changed?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""It leads me to conclude that we probably should not reduce the ranges for the broader aggregates.My tentative idea was to cut half of one percent from the 6 to 9 percent range for this year.I don't see that there is any case for doing that.""}]",no,,,,
962,968,19870707_461_6,CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.,"""I can survive that.""","For 1987 it is so much a matter of the way we present it; I think it makes very little difference. If we say we are not in the practice of changing the range--which isn't quite true when we are looking at M1--and we are going to keep the range but we really expect to come in low, Mr. Proxmire will say: ""Why the heck didn't you change the range?"" If I were testifying, I would be hard pressed to answer that question. I would mumble that the Committee didn't want to but nonetheless we think it is going to come in low and eventually we would go on to the next question. I can survive that. I think the way we're sending the message is more in the 1988 ranges than [unintelligible], providing that we say we are willing to come in low in 1987. If we are not going to come in low in 1987 then we are actually saying--these are going to get quite exaggerated--come hell or high water, we are going to get it up in the second half of the year with the implication that that takes a more aggressive easing stance for which we're going to vote.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I suppose we can decide that we will probably come in low and we are willing to. But we are going to have a higher rate next year that encompasses a more or less satisfactory nominal GNP growth but assumes a totally unsatisfactory price level. That is my speech for the afternoon. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'If you took one of these--the 1987 or 1988 ranges--and you changed one, which one would you prefer to have lower? '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': ""I would certainly work on the budget deficit.There's not much we can do about it, but at least we get some protection on the growth of domestic consumption as well as on the financial side and interest rates.I worry about minimum wages and all that stuff.Now, when it comes to monetary policy, I would be cautious.I think it would be a big mistake not to be cautious.We have talked about a half percent here; it's imagery, but that is where I would come out.I think it is very hard to present a suitably cautious outlook without changing the range this year.I suppose we can decide that we will probably come in lowand we are willing to.But we are going to have a higher rate next year that encompasses a more or less satisfactory nominal GNP growth but assumes a totally unsatisfactory price level.That is my speech for the afternoon.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'If you took one of these--the 1987 or 1988 ranges--and you changed one, which one would you prefer to have lower?'}]",yes,no,,,
963,969,19870818_200_3,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""I don't know if this is a typical result of this type of activity.""","Thank you. If we averaged everybody, we'd get a different result than if we averaged the voting members by themselves. I don't know if this is a typical result of this type of activity.","[{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'I would note, in that respect, for those who believe that the aggregates are important and that there is some informational content in them, that they\'re growing at a very nominal rate now. As a result, to further tighten at this point, in anticipation of some higher prices, seems to me to be inappropriate. So I would go for ""B"" with a $500 million borrowing level until some more information surfaces that would lead us away from that. Lastly, I would prefer to leave the language with respect to the dollar in the directive because, in my view, monetary policy has to act against a depreciation in the dollar that becomes fast, no matter what the cause. And, as a result, I would leave it in, and I would even leave it at a fairly high level of visibility in the directive. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'To be sure, prices are quite likely to be up, but as a result of feeding through on import prices; and I\'m not at all sure that a bit tighter monetary policy is an appropriate prescription under those circumstances.As a result, I would favor ""B"", with $500 million borrowing, until some additional evidence comes along.I would note, in that respect, for those who believe that the aggregates are important and that there is some informational content in them, that they\'re growing at a very nominal rate now.As a result, to further tighten at this point, in anticipation of some higher prices, seems to me to be inappropriate.So I would go for ""B"" with a $500 million borrowing level until some more information surfaces that would lead us away from that.Lastly, I would prefer to leave the language with respect to the dollar in the directive because, in my view, monetary policy has to act against a depreciation in the dollar that becomes fast, no matter what the cause.And, as a result, I would leave it in, and I would even leave it at a fairly high level of visibility in the directive.'}]",no,,,,
964,970,19871103_162_7,MR. KELLEY.,"""I would like to comment briefly on Jerry Corrigan's concern about the high level of debt, which has been one of my favorite themes also.""","Very briefly, Mr. Chairman, I think most things have been said, but just to get on the record here: While I agree with Bob Boykin and others that the situation is fragile, particularly in the Eleventh District, which I am still pretty close to, I share Bob Heller's view that there is a lot of room for being optimistic about a light at the end of the tunnel. The risks here, I think, are two primarily. Number one, as Ed Boehne and others have said, no more shocks is the key. If we can avoid that, I think things will be enormously optimistic. I also agree with Governor Seger that it is very important that we--and I mean we in the corporate sense--do whatever we can to avoid a recession, which is in nobody's interest at a time like this. So, those are the two things that I would like to keep a weather eye to: have no more shocks and avoid a recession to the extent that we can do that. I would like to comment briefly on Jerry Corrigan's concern about the high level of debt, which has been one of my favorite themes also. I think that ties together with Frank Morris' comment about the pressure for market share that people feel. The creation of all of this debt has put people in a situation where there is enormous pressure to produce; that's not only true for foreign economies and their pressure to maintain market share here but it is also true domestically. People who are in debt need to keep their jobs. So perhaps if there is a good side to all of this debt creation, it lies in the fact that it puts tremendous pressure on everybody to be productive and, thus, it should have a long-term downward drag on the inflationary concerns that we all have.","[{'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""As I read the growth numbers in Germany, Japan, Canada, and some other countries, it seems to me that they are not all that robust anyway. They do depend a lot upon their business dealings with us and, therefore, I can't imagine that we wouldn't take many of them with us, which in turn, would make our new-found ability to export a lot more difficult to take advantage of because you have to have somebody to buy those exports that we now can produce efficiently. So, to summarize, I just am concerned. And I really think that we ought to watch the incoming data extremely carefully for signs of more weakness than we are now expecting. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""But I think we ought to think about what the risk is, and ask: If we do get a recession, is that going to help the problems that Jerry Corrigan has ticked off?I don't think so.Going into a recession with a heavy debt load doesn't usually make the debt load any lighter; it just makes it look a lot heavier to service.Also, I don't think that a recession here would help our trading partners.As I read the growth numbers in Germany, Japan, Canada, and some other countries, it seems to me that they are not all that robust anyway.They do depend a lot upon their business dealings with us and, therefore, I can't imagine that we wouldn't take many of them with us, which in turn, would make our new-found ability to export a lot more difficult to take advantage of because you have to have somebody to buy those exports that we now can produce efficiently.So, to summarize, I just am concerned.And I really think that we ought to watch the incoming data extremely carefully for signs of more weakness than we are now expecting.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley.'}]",yes,no,,,
965,971,19871103_259_4,VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.,"""And I would remove the next sentence after the semicolon completely.""","This is built on Variant I, and I think it gets at a lot of the things that you have been saying. The first sentence, without prejudging decreasing or maintain or whatever would read: ""In the implementation of policy for the immediate future, the Committee seeks to [decrease somewhat/maintain/increase slightly] the degree of pressures on reserve positions sought in recent days."" Tom, I think that gets at your point. And I would remove the next sentence after the semicolon completely. Go down to the next sentence ""The Committee ...""","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'I don\'t think it exists. The only other point I\'d make is on this question of a measured approach to what we are trying to do here. I favor alternative ""B"" as Governor Johnson defined it a moment ago. But let me, if it\'s agreeable to you, Mr. Chairman, suggest some language here. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Go ahead, sure. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""So again, it's not a matter of theology for me; it's a matter of where are the risks and what are the greater risks.Then, there is this question of debt deficits and debtor nations.The point that I was trying to get at in bringing that up before is that whether we like it or not, history tells us in rather unmistakable terms that a country that finds itself in the position that we find ourselves in right now is going to have higher interest rates than would otherwise be the case.There may be an example someplace, somewhere in history that's contrary to that, but I don't know of it.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""It doesn't exist.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'I don\'t think it exists.The only other point I\'d make is on this question of a measured approach to what we are trying to do here.I favor alternative ""B"" as Governor Johnson defined it a moment ago.But let me, if it\'s agreeable to you, Mr. Chairman, suggest some language here.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Go ahead, sure.'}]",yes,no,,,
966,972,19871216_122_3,MR. GUFFEY.,"""And I'd do it under the umbrella, or the smokescreen, of the year-end uncertainty.""","No, no, I beg your pardon, I didn't. I should not have said that; I meant a borrowing target. And I'd do it under the umbrella, or the smokescreen, of the year-end uncertainty.","[{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""Also, I would join Tom Melzer in his proposal to do it, first of all, as quickly as possible, and secondly, under the umbrella of uncertainty that surrounds the year-end. I would opt for alternative (3) in the sense that we shouldn't totally ignore the federal funds rate over this next three-to four-week period. But I think the focus should be on the borrowing level and-- ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Well, you said nonborrowed reserves. Did you mean that? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': ""And I can tell you that our experience was not very good, as everybody knows.There was a lot of tugging and pulling to go an eighth of a point on the federal funds rate.As a matter of fact, we even got to the point of setting a zone of indifference where the federal funds could move a quarter of a point between two established points.And the fact is that the information that came from that procedure was well behind the facts and got us into trouble, in my view.I think we have to move back to a procedure of targeting nonborrowed reserves.Also, I would join Tom Melzer in his proposal to do it, first of all, as quickly as possible, and secondly, under the umbrella of uncertainty that surrounds the year-end.I would opt for alternative (3) in the sense that we shouldn't totally ignore the federal funds rate over this next three-to four-week period.But I think the focus should be on the borrowing level and--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Well, you said nonborrowed reserves.Did you mean that?'}]",yes,yes,,,
967,973,19880210_263_2,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""I'm sort of working this in reverse, but let me ask for a motion to ratify Peter Sternlight's transactions""","Thank you. I'm sort of working this in reverse, but let me ask for a motion to ratify Peter Sternlight's transactions and then I'll ask for questions of both.","[{'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""I'll move it. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I'll move. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Approved without objection. Mr. Sternlight. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.] '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""And then what I'd like to do is see if we can find a way--if not by voting in a single package, then some way other way--that we could agree that none of us is [totally] comfortable with the end result but all of us, or most of us, hopefully, can at least feel as though it's accommodatable.Having said that, I think the doughnuts are there.Are they there?The problem is they're not; we have to try to filibuster for 10 more minutes.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'I could filibuster for you.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'You can filibuster.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""Or you can have the Managers' reports, as Peter and Sam just pointed out.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""That's not a filibuster, that's substance.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'This is only substance--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': ""What's wrong with a longer-than-usual coffee break?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""The major problem is that the coffee hasn't arrived.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Well, there are other things to do out there.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""You mean you've had a lot of coffee this morning.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'The reason--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I think you have, and as a result, I think we will adjourn on that note.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. CROSS.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.]'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Would somebody like to move the ratification of the Manager's transactions?""}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""I'll move it.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I'll move.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Approved without objection.Mr. Sternlight.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.]'}]",no,,,,
968,974,19880210_534_1,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""Oh no, that strikes me as--""","Oh no, that strikes me as--","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'No, you would say ""to maintain the slightly easier""-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""It's just that I think--apparently most think--that the $200 million borrowings is consistent with the existing conditions. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'But you would say that you would maintain the slightly easier degree of pressures sought in recent days. '}, {'speaker': 'MS.   SEGER.', 'text': 'Would you say confirm the easing? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'That captures it. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""Just today we had a period ending that way; they're going to see that low borrowings number; there are already feelings around that some easing has taken place.I think one thing that the directive ought to convey is that there was one step; I don't think you want to somehow in the language create the impression that a step was taken and then a subsequent step was taken today.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'I share that [view].'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'I agree with that; it ought to be right up in the front sentence.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""I think that's right; how do you do it then?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'In fact, that would convey far more than this result.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Well, I thought we were taking a position that we are not easing today; we are maintaining existing conditions.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'No, you would say ""to maintain the slightly easier""--'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""It's just that I think--apparently most think--that the $200 million borrowings is consistent with the existing conditions.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'But you would say that you would maintain the slightly easier degree of pressures sought in recent days.'}, {'speaker': 'MS.   SEGER.', 'text': 'Would you say confirm the easing?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'That captures it.'}]",yes,,,,
969,975,19880816_83_5,MR. TRUMAN.,"""So that's not going to change anything.""","Essentially, they are very close, [even] with the revision. Although the June number is ""bad"", the May revision was quite large and in fact if anything, the two together were a little better than we expected in our forecast. They were a little worse than what was implicit in the GNP numbers. But it translates to something like maybe a 10th or two at an annual rate on the second-quarter real GNP. So that's not going to change anything. And both components pretty much matched up with what we suspected.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Okay, thank you sir. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'It could also be a little more. I must say you try to put it down and-- '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Black. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I was just going to ask Ted: Have you redone your projections of net exports since you got the Census merchandise trade figures? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""Well yes, I think to some extent it was because, as I mentioned, we were encouraged by what we had seen in the first half of this year.So, given that, along with other anecdotes and so forth and so on, we have carried a bit more of that through to the second half of the year.And, in effect, that attenuates some of the effect of the dollar alone on the forecast.So we scaled it back a little bit on the basis of an assessment of what the appreciation to date has achieved for us, or how much it's going to achieve for us.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""So at least that's one area where perhaps it could turn out that there'd be a little less pressure in terms of growth?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""That's right.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Okay, thank you sir.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'It could also be a little more.I must say you try to put it down and--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Black.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I was just going to ask Ted: Have you redone your projections of net exports since you got the Census merchandise trade figures?'}]",yes,no,,,
970,976,19880816_360_1,MS. SEGER.,"""Well, I guess I'm a ""B"", $600 million today.""","Well, I guess I'm a ""B"", $600 million today. It's not a new [unintelligible]. First of all, I think the discount rate hike did catch almost everybody in the markets by surprise. Everyone is on vacation, and I don't think that we've had the full impact, particularly in the stock market. Also, we've had several rounds of tightening so far this year and I'm not convinced that all of those have been felt in economic activity yet. Also, I think the foreign exchange markets are very, very important to this process. And I would want to be sure that we didn't get the dollar moving so rapidly north and get it so strong that it would impede our ability to fix our trade imbalances. I think it's important to get that done over the long term. I do believe money matters and I think the monetary aggregates--particularly M2--have been looking quite good, behaving very well. In connection with that, I would go along with Wayne Angell's idea that we move it up. I'm not sure that today I'm willing to put it in spot number one, but I am willing certainly to move it up [in the directive listing of factors]. Some of the indicators of inflation and inflationary expectations, I think, look better than they did a couple of months ago, particularly looking at prices of such things as gold, oil, certain commodities. And I realize we have a weak producer price index and some of those, but I think the more sensitive price numbers are not looking necessarily worse. As I said, I would go for a $600 million borrowing target, and I guess I would prefer a symmetrical directive, but I can certainly live with an asymmetric one.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""I feel that we are making exactly the same kind of mistakes today. I would buy Hoskins' suggestion of moving initially to $700 million with the idea of closing up at an $800 million level. I think that sounds sensible rather than doing it all at once. But I have a very strong feeling that we are moving policy too slowly here. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Seger. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': ""If the error is plus, meaning that our forecast is on the downside, I think four quarters from now we will have only that choice: Do we accommodate a further acceleration of inflation or do we push the economy into recession?And that is the kind of choice we ought to be trying to avoid at all costs.The cost of moving now, running the risk of following too tight a policy now, is a lot less than the cost of being forced into making one of these two bad choices.And the only way you can avoid making one of those two bad choices, as we learned in the 1970s, is by taking a risk early in the game.During the 1970s we were doing exactly what we are doing here.We were moving policy in the right direction, but we were never moving it enough to stay ahead of what was going on in the system.I feel that we are making exactly the same kind of mistakes today.I would buy Hoskins' suggestion of moving initially to $700 million with the idea of closing up at an $800 million level.I think that sounds sensible rather than doing it all at once.But I have a very strong feeling that we are moving policy too slowly here.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Seger.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,utterance
971,977,19890328_249_1,MR. TRUMAN.,"""Well, it clearly works in that direction, though it all depends a bit on what one thinks the current meeting will produce for the balance of 1989.""","Well, it clearly works in that direction, though it all depends a bit on what one thinks the current meeting will produce for the balance of 1989. I have not seen any reports that suggest that the Saudis will step up production because of their fiscal situation or that they do not need to step up their production because prices have moved up. Posted prices have not moved to the same degree as spot prices, although--","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Using the model--which I've already indicated is an imperfect predictor of these responses--if you took out the interest rate increase and just held the funds rate stable the model would take off maybe 1/3 of a percent in real growth this year and something over 1/2 a percent next year. That means that we still would have a perceptible weakening in growth and likely some slight edging up in the unemployment rate. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Ted, can I ask a question on the effect of the rise in the oil price in the last couple of weeks on the Saudi Arabian fiscal situation? A couple of weeks ago, as I recall, it looked as though the rapidly deteriorating fiscal situation in Saudi Arabia and the pressures on the oil price would likely come, with the Saudis having to increase their liftings to meet their revenue requirements, which would accelerate the price level decline. Is there any way of making a judgment as to whether the recent runup in spot crude prices has altered the situation in a way in which they need not move the liftings at this point? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Using the model--which I've already indicated is an imperfect predictor of these responses--if you took out the interest rate increase and just held the funds rate stable the model would take off maybe 1/3 of a percent in real growth this year and something over 1/2 a percent next year.That means that we still would have a perceptible weakening in growth and likely some slight edging up in the unemployment rate.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Ted, can I ask a question on the effect of the rise in the oil price in the last couple of weeks on the Saudi Arabian fiscal situation?A couple of weeks ago, as I recall, it looked as though the rapidly deteriorating fiscal situation in Saudi Arabia and the pressures on the oil price would likely come, with the Saudis having to increase their liftings to meet their revenue requirements, which would accelerate the price level decline.Is there any way of making a judgment as to whether the recent runup in spot crude prices has altered the situation in a way in which they need not move the liftings at this point?'}]",yes,,,,
972,978,19890822_110_3,MR. SYRON.,"""My question has to do with the Nynex strike.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'We now move to the general economic evaluation. Messrs. Prell and Truman. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.] '}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.] '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Questions for either gentleman? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'The other point is that, to a large extent, our need to drain--although it has been revealed by the decline in the Treasury balance--resulted importantly from the warehousing of the ESF funds and also our own intervention.This sterilization, really, of that part of our balance sheet gave rise to a lot of this need to drain.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': ""Yes, that's certainly true.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Also, the degree of instability that occurs is largely our inability [unintelligible] matter of using cash management bills or allowing the balances to move.Everything is exact, but we can't--.I guess you could argue, though, that the more variables they have to play with the more likely that the forecasts are--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': 'Offsetting errors?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Yes, but sometimes they aren't.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'Compounding.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Any further questions for Peter?If not, would somebody move to ratify the transactions of the domestic Desk since the July meeting?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': 'So move.MR.JOHNSON.Second.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Without objection.We now move to the general economic evaluation.Messrs. Prell and Truman.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.]'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.]'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Questions for either gentleman?'}]",no,,,,
973,979,19891219_237_1,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""Well, for example, it makes a big difference when what we're dealing with is a $20 oil shock or a $3 oil shock, or a--""","Well, for example, it makes a big difference when what we're dealing with is a $20 oil shock or a $3 oil shock, or a--","[{'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'And what are the costs and benefits of that? But I wanted an answer to that question I had about relative prices. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Manley, if I might, I'd just say that I wonder whether that's really an answerable question without knowing the form of the shock. Clearly, it's the type of thing that we always address when we see-- ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'What do you mean? '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'That is, are we looking for zero inflation or are we willing to accept, say, 4-1/2 percent?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""Let me just repeat the last question I left on the table, which I think relates directly to your question about what are the benefits of an inflation rate target versus a price level stability target.I was talking to Bob Parry during the break and raised another question, which is: If you have an exogenous shock, a supply shock that changed the level of prices either up or down--it doesn't matter which way you look at it, I guess--would you want to go back to the old level or would you want simply to move forward in terms of stabilizing the new shock level?And what are the costs and benefits of that?But I wanted an answer to that question I had about relative prices.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Manley, if I might, I'd just say that I wonder whether that's really an answerable question without knowing the form of the shock.Clearly, it's the type of thing that we always address when we see--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'What do you mean?'}]",yes,no,,,
974,980,19891219_638_14,MR. PARRY.,"""With regard to Boeing, the Boeing settlement is quite complex and we've been trying to price it out.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""Therefore, from that perspective, the inflation outlook has improved. On the labor side, costs are up; most of it continues to be on the benefits side as opposed to basic wages and, therefore, the outlook doesn't seem negative. Net, it seems to me that the outlook for next year continues to be positive but certainly moderate. But I do think at this point that the risks are very much on the down side; at the same time, I believe the outlook for inflation perhaps has improved a bit. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""But the retailers I talk to are reasonably optimistic as to how it's going to go.On the inflation front, I think the outlook has become somewhat better.We see a lot of capacity coming on in some of the major industries--autos speak for themselves--but in steel we've had some additions to capacity over the last couple of years and the same is true of paper and chemicals.And I'm hearing from people that there are a whole host of prices that seem to be moving down, not up.Therefore, from that perspective, the inflation outlook has improved.On the labor side, costs are up; most of it continues to be on the benefits side as opposed to basic wages and, therefore, the outlook doesn't seem negative.Net, it seems to me that the outlook for next year continues to be positive but certainly moderate.But I do think at this point that the risks are very much on the down side; at the same time, I believe the outlook for inflation perhaps has improved a bit.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Parry.'}]",no,,,,
975,981,19891219_710_2,VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.,"""Well, I myself would come out in my own camp three.""","Okay. Well, I myself would come out in my own camp three. In other words, I'd take the borrowings down a notch right now, take the funds rate down a notch right now, and have a symmetric directive going forward. The fundamental reason why I would do that I would translate in terms of what I earlier called the wiggle factor--trying to kind of wiggle through this period. But in doing that, I would not in any way want to associate myself with some other statements that have been made that might suggest coming out the same place but for different reasons. I am not terribly uncomfortable with where we are and I do think that looking further out the risks could change. So, I'd say get this move behind us; do it right here today at the Committee meeting and accompany it with a symmetric directive going forward. Thank you.","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'But I think we\'ve got to be extremely careful not to sanction it because of its causes. So sensitive, yes; but sanction, no. In terms of policy, I see three options and they\'re not ""A,"" ""B,"" and ""C"" in Bluebook terms. Basically they are: first, to keep an asymmetric--perhaps a strongly asymmetric--directive and do nothing right now; second, to do something like what the Chairman just said, which essentially would mean moving 1/4 point on the funds rate or $125 million on borrowing while keeping an asymmetric directive; and third, to do the quarter point on the funds rate and the corresponding borrowing adjustment now but go back to a symmetric directive. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Jerry, I was going [toward the third]-- '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'I think there are two basic sources: one is the macroeconomic imbalances that we\'ve been living with for a long time that fundamentally reflect the policy mix problem; and the second source of it is what we have to regard as excesses, or maybe even outright speculation, in large segments of the financial markets and in important segments in the real economy, including the nonfinancial corporate sector and the real estate sector.Obviously, we have to be sensitive to that fragility even though we may not like its causes.But I think we\'ve got to be extremely careful not to sanction it because of its causes.So sensitive, yes; but sanction, no.In terms of policy, I see three options and they\'re not ""A,"" ""B,"" and ""C"" in Bluebook terms.Basically they are: first, to keep an asymmetric--perhaps a strongly asymmetric--directive and do nothing right now; second, to do something like what the Chairman just said, which essentially would mean moving 1/4 point on the funds rate or $125 million on borrowing while keeping an asymmetric directive; and third, to do the quarter point on the funds rate and the corresponding borrowing adjustment now but go back to a symmetric directive.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Jerry, I was going [toward the third]--'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
976,982,19900207_217_3,MR. ANGELL.,"""And if my suggestion gets a second, we can [be done] with it.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'So, if anyone would like to-- '}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Yes, I would. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""You can't move and-- ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Oh yes you can. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""You can't move to amend your own-- ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'But they also talked about a lower funds rate.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': ""They're also not going to be held accountable.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOSKINS.', 'text': ""I understand.All I'm suggesting is that there are some people out there who happen to believe that a predictable and credible policy might be important.In terms of the alternatives, I would like to see a 2 to 6 percent growth rate for M2.I don't care about the other two, i.e., M3 and debt.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I think the best way to proceed is to have alternative II moved and seconded and then to open up the discussion to amendments on changes in both M3 and debt.So, if the Secretary will read--.I beg your pardon, I'm sorry.Are you okay?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""I'm ready.I move 3 to 7 percent for M2.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'I second.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Alternative II is moved and seconded.We're now open to amendments on altering the ranges for M3 and debt, sequentially.So, if anyone would like to--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Yes, I would.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""You can't move and--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Oh yes you can.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""You can't move to amend your own--""}]",no,,,,
977,983,19900515_192_1,MR. HOSKINS.,"""That sounds like alternative ""C"" to me, Wayne.""","That sounds like alternative ""C"" to me, Wayne.","[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""I know from the experience in 1986 that once we've eased it sometimes takes a lot longer for us to change direction to tighten than it does to stop tightening and ease, because everybody likes to ease. I just have a very strong compulsion at this point to be looking for an opportunity to get the fed funds rate up to where I think it ought to be. I'd be much more satisfied with an 8-3/4 percent fed funds rate than with an 8-1/4 percent rate. I just don't think today is the time to do it. I certainly hope we'll be ready to do it when we need to. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': ""I would prefer that the directive would read tighten now, but I can vote in the affirmative with the understanding that we're very close together with some consensus here which says: that we deem this attack against inflation to be a very high priority; that we think following that priority gives the economic expansion more of an opportunity to develop and to strengthen and to lengthen than not to do it; that we are steeled to be ready to do what has to be done some time in the future; and that that is not to be deterred because there's a little bit of pain[involved].I had been hoping we could get there in a painless way but, frankly, what I have learned in 4-1/4 years tells me it's tougher than I thought.I know from the experience in 1986 that once we've eased it sometimes takes a lot longer for us to change direction to tighten than it does to stop tightening and ease, because everybody likes to ease.I just have a very strong compulsion at this point to be looking for an opportunity to get the fed funds rate up to where I think it ought to be.I'd be much more satisfied with an 8-3/4 percent fed funds rate than with an 8-1/4 percent rate.I just don't think today is the time to do it.I certainly hope we'll be ready to do it when we need to.""}]",yes,yes,-5 sentences,neutral,-5 sentences
978,984,19901113_127_1,MR. PARRY.,"""Mr. Chairman, since you characterized the sentence as an anachronism, why don't we choose the environmentally sensitive solution and eliminate it?""","Mr. Chairman, since you characterized the sentence as an anachronism, why don't we choose the environmentally sensitive solution and eliminate it?","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""The question is: What option do we choose? One option is to do nothing. And it may well be that we should do nothing until we come to grips with the fundamental question. That's clearly an option, but I do think we at least ought to make that judgment explicitly if in fact that's the option the Committee chooses to adopt. President Parry. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Now, it may be unlikely that there will be a majority who would wish to do that.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I think that happens to be true.But I'm not sure that that solves the problem because you're talking substance and we're talking public relations.The issue that you're raising, which is a substantive operational question, is something we've been struggling with and have not been able to find a consensus here that would enable us to function in that context.We had put it aside temporarily hoping we'd find an opportunity to address that issue.But pending [a resolution of] that substantive question, we have this anachronism that is in the directive, which is on the table for us to address.The question is: What option do we choose?One option is to do nothing.And it may well be that we should do nothing until we come to grips with the fundamental question.That's clearly an option, but I do think we at least ought to make that judgment explicitly if in fact that's the option the Committee chooses to adopt.President Parry.""}]",yes,no,,,
979,985,19901113_165_2,MR. BOEHNE.,"""It's also full of irony because if you look at the operational paragraph, it's the only reference to the federal funds rate yet we essentially peg the federal funds rate and we are [talking about] eliminating that reference.""","I think this discussion shows that we really don't want to face up to the major issues that confront us, because it strikes me as being clearly a minor issue on our agenda today. It's also full of irony because if you look at the operational paragraph, it's the only reference to the federal funds rate yet we essentially peg the federal funds rate and we are [talking about] eliminating that reference. I don't think it makes a lot of difference whether we keep it or not. I would think that the most accurate sentence to put in would be what John LaWare just suggested because that does explicitly keep in [language regarding the Chairman's] discretion to call for Committee consultation and it does refer to what we've been using all along, and that is a fairly wide range of economic and financial variables. But I'm prepared to support practically anything because I don't think it makes a lot of difference.","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': ""Well, that's right. It is implicit and that's why I favor doing away with the sentence. But if anyone felt they wanted to have language, I would prefer broad language like that rather than tying it to the funds rate or to economic conditions. But you're right, it is implicit. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. LAWARE.', 'text': ""And that gives you complete flexibility to determine that some trend line is significant or not significant and doesn't in any way inhibit you; and at the same time it does say something if we feel compelled to say something.But I could vote for eliminating it completely.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Forrestal.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': 'I think, too, that it has been anachronistic and irrelevant for a long period of time, and my preference would be to eliminate it.But as Governor LaWare just said, if there\'s a particular reason to preserve in the record your discretion to have a consultation, then I think we could fashion language that doesn\'t really tie it to any particular economic situation but just gives you broader authority to call a consultation whenever you feel like it.For example, ""The Chairman reserves the right to call for Committee consultation when in his judgment conditions warrant such consultation"" or something like that.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""That's very implicit in the current directive.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': ""Well, that's right.It is implicit and that's why I favor doing away with the sentence.But if anyone felt they wanted to have language, I would prefer broad language like that rather than tying it to the funds rate or to economic conditions.But you're right, it is implicit.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne.'}]",yes,,,,
980,986,19901113_198_9,MR. PRELL.,"""We are not able to point to very clear-cut real impacts at this juncture that we can say are obviously attributable to the credit situation.""","Well, we're sort of captives of our key assumptions. And oil, given the movement we have forecast, is a quite powerful influence. So the broad contours here seem right to me in light of that assumption. Now, as to how one might want to alter that in light of one's geo-political-military assessments, obviously, there's a tremendous range of possibilities. I think there is a lot of sense to assuming that at some point over the next 6 to 9 months we will have a significantly lower oil price either after military conflict or in the absence of military conflict. But the timing of that and what might happen in between is hard to say. So, that obviously complicates things. As to the credit picture, as we've said all along, this is just very hard to translate into GNP points. We are not able to point to very clear-cut real impacts at this juncture that we can say are obviously attributable to the credit situation. For example, in nonresidential construction, which is where everyone thought the most direct hit would be, it isn't really obvious there yet. We can see the contracts and permits data suggesting some weakening, but there seems to be a pretty long pipeline and there isn't a sign of an enormous drop right now. We're predicting that we will see some significant weakness in construction put-in-place in the next two months' reports. But this is hard to predict.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""As to the risks: Obviously, they're manyfold and very substantial. If I had to characterize them for the very near term, I'd put a small interval around the minus 2 percent and say that is what we think is the most likely result. My judgment would be that the tail [of the probability distribution] is probably a bit longer and a bit thicker going to the down side but that we have a significant [mass] of the probability around this moderate drop--I don't know if a drop is ever moderate--of 2 percent or something close to the magnitude that we have in the fourth quarter. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': ""There is never an awful lot of comfort in these things, but are you much more uncomfortable in terms of your distribution about how long it takes to come back--whether it's two quarters, three quarters, etc? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""On top of that we get some impetus over time coming from the recent decline in the dollar showing up in the stronger export growth and the retardation of import expansion.So, that's the major impetus to defining final demand as we look out into the latter half of 1991.As to the risks: Obviously, they're manyfold and very substantial.If I had to characterize them for the very near term, I'd put a small interval around the minus 2 percent and say that is what we think is the most likely result.My judgment would be that the tail [of the probability distribution] is probably a bit longer and a bit thicker going to the down sidebut that we have a significant [mass] of the probability around this moderate drop--I don't know if a drop is ever moderate--of 2 percent or something close to the magnitude that we have in the fourth quarter.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': ""There is never an awful lot of comfort in these things, but are you much more uncomfortable in terms of your distribution about how long it takes to come back--whether it's two quarters, three quarters, etc?""}]",no,,,,
981,987,19901218_136_1,MR. KOHN.,"""We tried to stick with about a normal difference.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Why don't we adjourn for coffee and come back in 10 minutes. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.] '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Questions for Don? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""Don, I noticed in the money projections in the Bluebook that there's a very dramatic difference when you get out to February and March between alternatives A and B, much more so than I think we normally see. Do you want to comment on that? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': ""The converse of that would be if we're in another episode of what we've seen before in the postwar era.If that turns out to be true, we could wind up with a quick, weak recovery and then fall back rather soon and be very disappointed.But if it becomes clear that this is a new era and a disinflationary one, I think the long-term perspective is really quite positive.But that does leave us with a near-term challenge: to facilitate the weaning of the economy off of the inflation kick that it has been on for so long and to avoid the potential for deflation and serious contraction that that could lead to.Thank you.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Thank you.Why don't we adjourn for coffee and come back in 10 minutes.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.]'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Questions for Don?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""Don, I noticed in the money projections in the Bluebook that there's a very dramatic difference when you get out to February and March between alternatives A and B, much more so than I think we normally see.Do you want to comment on that?""}]",no,,,,
982,988,19901218_174_1,MR. BLACK.,"""If we did this, you don't think it would provide an undue degree of surprise, do you?""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""Now, I think you're right that the churning around year-end is a problem; and my view is that if we're going to do something, we probably ought to do it in the next couple of days to get it out there and done with and then pretty well even keel it through this potentially difficult period around year-end. But I don't see why it can't be done in the next few days. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'I would agree that it can be conveyed. I think something about like that move is what a number of people in the market expect. That would also help in being able to convey [an intention] like that. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""That would be a very broad hint and we could play with that wording to give the best possible clue in the press release.And I think it would only take a couple of operations by Mr. Sternlight thereafter to make it clear.If they dropped the funds rate further than the Committee wanted it to, all we have to do is bring in some reserves in a pretty aggressive way.Now, I think you're right that the churning around year-end is a problem; and my view is that if we're going to do something, we probably ought to do it in the next couple of days to get it out there and done with and then pretty well even keel it through this potentially difficult period around year-end.But I don't see why it can't be done in the next few days.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'I would agree that it can be conveyed.I think something about like that move is what a number of people in the market expect.That would also help in being able to convey [an intention] like that.'}]",no,,,,
983,989,19910703_275_3,MR. MELZER.,"""The credibility point is the major argument in favor of it.""","In terms of the strategies laid out, I'd favor strategy II, the tighter one, and flowing from that alternative III in terms of the ranges. We're talking about a long-term approach to strategy here, and that underlines our commitment to price stability, which I think is the one thing we really can influence in the long run. The credibility point is the major argument in favor of it. It seems to me that we could get the most positive impact by making a move now. I agree with Jerry: Our actions are more important than the symbolism of this. But I think if we change it in February, it's going to be because we're perceived to be on the run; and I don't know whether we buy a lot at that point in time. Some of the arguments that I've heard I'm not particularly persuaded by--for example, gradualism. We've been at this for four years and I think we ought to keep down that path. I agree with what you said, Mr. Chairman, and with what Lee said: There's some distance to go here. And I think this is the time to try to consolidate some of the gains. In terms of this issue about a top end of 6 percent somehow constraining our ability to act if the economy is weaker than we expected--and this picks up on Jerry's point--we're already ""acting"" quite a bit now; we have projections in the Bluebook of M2 growth moving up to a 6 percent rate, which is 50 percent higher than what we've averaged over the last four years. So, we're doing our part in trying to assure a recovery. In fact, I would agree with Jerry that what we have to be thinking about is: When do we take some of that rope back in? On the final point that I've heard some arguments that I don't necessarily agree with, I'd add the financial fragility point. I don't think the conduct of monetary policy, so long as we're providing adequate liquidity to the economy, is really the appropriate tool. I think we can look ourselves in the mirror and say that we've been doing our part on that score. I don't disagree that there are problems out there, but I think there are other policy approaches that need to address those. If you step back and look at them, the problems that we're having with the financial system are really the products of a monetary policy that sowed the seeds for inflation, and a lot of the problems are inherent now as inflation is coming down.","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""And then a cut in the ranges in February will be more than symbolic and the timing might be precisely what we need. So, I'm quite comfortable with reaffirming the ranges in alternative II but, as I said, I do take seriously your point about the need to look at that closely in February. Indeed, things could turn out such that both substantively and symbolically a cut in the ranges then could be just what the doctor ordered when we need it most. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Melzer. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""And it seems to me that on this whole question of credibility, which probably gets a little overblown, the real test of our credibility is going to be whether, if it's needed, we will tighten soon enough and sufficiently enough to prevent the serious mistakes in policy that were made in the mid-1970s.If you look at the forecast and take it more or less at face value, it seems to me that that question could easily be on the table in spades six months from now or so.Since I see that as a possibility, and since I think our credibility really does come down to what we do and not what we say, I'd rather keep the ranges where they are just in case things do work that way.And then a cut in the ranges in February will be more than symbolic and the timing might be precisely what we need.So, I'm quite comfortable with reaffirming the ranges in alternative IIbut, as I said, I do take seriously your point about the need to look at that closely in February.Indeed, things could turn out such that both substantively and symbolically a cut in the ranges then could be just what the doctor ordered when we need it most.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Melzer.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,entailment,utterance
984,990,19920701_25_2,MS. LOVETT.,"""There isn't anyone out there who expects that the Committee is going to be firming policy, so there's more tolerance for a funds rate that deviates to the high side of the expected level than there would be for a funds rate that deviates to the low side.""","Well, we have a little more flexibility on one side of the rate depending on the state of market expectations. There isn't anyone out there who expects that the Committee is going to be firming policy, so there's more tolerance for a funds rate that deviates to the high side of the expected level than there would be for a funds rate that deviates to the low side. So, actually, we have throughout this period felt somewhat more comfortable with having our operations be a little loose on the up side--that is, letting funds trade at higher levels without necessarily going in and offsetting it. Whereas on the low side we wouldn't feel as comfortable because if there were any direction to policy in this period, that's the way the market thinking has been. MR..JORDAN. That asymmetry, though, is due to market perceptions that we are conditioned by real magnitudes; they think we're responding to things we can't control anyway. But the follow-up question is this: Over this last week the market tried to [interpret] that failure to cut the funds rate, in a reserve supplying sense, as a relative tightening of policy. From the Desk perspective, would you view it as tighter?","[{'speaker': 'MS. LOVETT.', 'text': 'It\'s one of the foibles of having a federal funds rate objective that gets narrower and narrower. That did happen on a couple of occasions and we didn\'t want to have to drain the reserves if we could avoid it. So, the fact that the perception out there was that at certain rate levels and at certain times we didn\'t have a tolerance [for actions] that would cause people to bid the rate up is part of what one has to call the ""market dynamics."" '}, {'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'You could now be in [a similar] position in the opposite direction. With the funds rate at 3-7/8 percent if you saw a need to drain, [you would] feel compelled to add reserves--to do something that is not really consistent with supplying reserves--in order to avoid giving a wrong signal. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': ""We would have wound up doing something in reserve supplying operations that really wasn't consistent with what we wanted to do because of this perception.And then they would have a perception on the other side regarding what we might do and try to game it in order to prevent us from doing it.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. LOVETT.', 'text': 'It\'s one of the foibles of having a federal funds rate objective that gets narrower and narrower.That did happen on a couple of occasions and we didn\'t want to have to drain the reserves if we could avoid it.So, the fact that the perception out there was that at certain rate levels and at certain times we didn\'t have a tolerance [for actions] that would cause people to bid the rate up is part of what one has to call the ""market dynamics.""'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'You could now be in [a similar] position in the opposite direction.With the funds rate at 3-7/8 percent if you saw a need to drain, [you would] feel compelled to add reserves--to do something that is not really consistent with supplying reserves--in order to avoid giving a wrong signal.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,,sentence
985,991,19920701_285_4,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""To say it is meaningless is a statement of knowledge.""","We are saying that we are looking at it. We're saying nothing more than we have basically said [before]. In other words, we are not saying it is meaningless. To say it is meaningless is a statement of knowledge. What we're saying is that something that had relationships has gone off the track. That basically stipulates that for this particular time it has no meaning; it is a state of knowledge we don't have. Indeed, it may be reflecting something quite significant, but we don't know that.","[{'speaker': 'MR.   LINDSEY.', 'text': ""My third question about what you were saying is: Are you going up there with no anchor at all? In other words, if you say that temporarily we're not looking at M2, I think Milton Friedman and others have-- ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""No, I'm not saying that. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'Oh, good. Okay. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I don\'t think so because the type of shift that I was discussing is a long-term shift, in which what we\'re dealing with is a relatively small ""add factor"" not a short-term or even a major [unintelligible] break.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'So, you would expect within the foreseeable future that we would be back to some kind of stable money/income relationship?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I would certainly think so.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': ""Is it your expectation that that will be by '93 perhaps?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I'm going to comment when we get to the next agenda topic, the short-term [decision], on what I think is going on in the economy, which is not unrelated to that.Let me try to answer that question in that context because I need [to cite] some background to give you my point of view.""}, {'speaker': 'MR.   LINDSEY.', 'text': ""My third question about what you were saying is: Are you going up there with no anchor at all?In other words, if you say that temporarily we're not looking at M2, I think Milton Friedman and others have--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""No, I'm not saying that.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'Oh, good.Okay.'}]",yes,,,,
986,992,19921006_87_3,MR. PRELL.,"""A retiree living on the proceeds of short-term deposits would not see an improvement coming from lower short-term rates.""","It's a difficult question. I think many people in different positions perceive the effects of changes in short-term rates differently. A retiree living on the proceeds of short-term deposits would not see an improvement coming from lower short-term rates. A business that has a heavy load of short-term floating rate debt or debt that rolls over frequently is going to achieve some significant improvements in the bottom line from the decline in interest costs. I think it is fair to say that some of the channels of positive influence from declining rates have been somewhat diminished in their effectiveness in the past couple of years because such sectors as commercial real estate are just so far out of kilter in terms of the fundamentals of supply and demand that making borrowing cheaper is not going to make new investments particularly profitable. It may enhance property values to some degree and diminish the write-downs that will occur, but we're not going to get quite the stimulus we would have in other circumstances. Similarly, to the extent that credit availability has been the problem for some classes of borrowers, a small reduction in rates probably is not going to make a very great difference. But there are a lot of borrowers for whom lower rates will make a considerable difference. I think we've seen that the decline in rates has significantly abetted the balance sheet restructuring process. I think lower rates have played a role in sustaining relatively high valuations in the stock market and probably have cushioned the falls in a variety of other asset values. We have not argued that modest changes in short-term rates are going to make a night and day difference, but if you feel that there is nothing else here to provide a great deal of push to the economy over the next few quarters, our assumption of a decline in long rates looms rather large as a factor in the projected acceleration. And the question becomes one of whether some easing of short rates is needed to facilitate that process. If people thought that the Fed was overdoing it and that the implication of the easing was that we would have significantly higher inflationary pressures down the road and that we wouldn't reverse course in a timely way, then we might not get the beneficial effects in the bond market. My sense is that unless the Fed went to 1 percent on the funds rate tomorrow--if the movement was gradual--that in the context of weak economic indicators we are more likely to get the ""too little too late"" complaint than we are the notion that we've overdone it and have shifted to a grossly inflationary posture. So, there are a lot of things to weigh here. But, as we suggested, I don't think we should ignore the fundamental notion that on balance easing probably does give us some stimulative effect. It's a very long answer.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'If I probe that, an answer I frequently get is: ""If I thought interest rates were going to stay down, then lower rates would help. But if you lower interest rates now, I know you\'ll have to raise them a few months or a year down the road. Just knowing that rates are going to be down for a short period doesn\'t help me because I\'m going to have to finance whatever I\'m going to buy with this [loan] for 5 or 8 or 10 years."" I find increasingly that the view in the business community is at odds with what most of us have accepted as a good [economic] relationship. I wonder if you could help me through some of that. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'It\'s an article of faith for anybody who has taken one or certainly two economics classes that lower interest rates are going to be a positive [for] growth, and I\'m not quarreling with that orthodoxy.But when one goes out and talks with people in the business community and consumers, one almost invariably runs into the view that lower rates are not the [solution].If I probe that, an answer I frequently get is: ""If I thought interest rates were going to stay down, then lower rates would help.But if you lower interest rates now, I know you\'ll have to raise them a few months or a year down the road.Just knowing that rates are going to be down for a short period doesn\'t help me because I\'m going to have to finance whatever I\'m going to buy with this [loan] for 5 or 8 or 10 years.""I find increasingly that the view in the business community is at odds with what most of us have accepted as a good [economic] relationship.I wonder if you could help me through some of that.'}]",yes,yes,,,
987,993,19921006_139_1,MR. MULLINS.,"""Or at least we wouldn't get the 75 basis points decline; rates would stay constant.""",Or at least we wouldn't get the 75 basis points decline; rates would stay constant.,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'There could be a tradeoff between the direct effects of lower taxes on income or higher expenditures on activity that would eliminate the need and probably tend to elevate long rates relative to what they are in our scenario. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': 'Indeed, last year during the first-quarter debate [on fiscal packages] the long bond went up 60 basis points. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Yes. It's an open question, of course, whether rates are now higher than they would otherwise be if there were not already considerable concern about the possibility of some significant enhancement in the size of the budget deficit. So, it's a little [hard] to sort out what the effects would be; but I can envision circumstances, as you're suggesting, in which the bond markets would be adversely affected at least temporarily. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': 'Supposing in the post-election period it became fairly obvious that the prospects of a large fiscal package were quite high.How would that be reflected in the long bond rate in the forecast?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""I guess the simple answer would be that we don't have that in our forecast.There could be a tradeoff between the direct effects of lower taxes on income or higher expenditures on activity that would eliminate the need and probably tend to elevate long rates relative to what they are in our scenario.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': 'Indeed, last year during the first-quarter debate [on fiscal packages] the long bond went up 60 basis points.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Yes.It's an open question, of course, whether rates are now higher than they would otherwise be if there were not already considerable concern about the possibility of some significant enhancement in the size of the budget deficit.So, it's a little [hard] to sort out what the effects would be; but I can envision circumstances, as you're suggesting, in which the bond markets would be adversely affected at least temporarily.""}]",yes,yes,sentence,,
988,994,19921117_307_6,MR. SYRON.,"""Pretty clearly, we all agree to that.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': ""Going back to your issue that the public has a right to know at some point, I think we have had in the past, as I've read this material, a position that says, yes, we would be willing to accommodate them with a detailed memorandum of discussion again if we could have some assurances that there wouldn't be premature release of that material to the public through a FOI request. That issue still stands and we can be consistent with protecting the deliberative process and making [a detailed transcript] available if they're willing to protect that over time. And, as we apparently did in the past, we can make some compromise in terms of what others are talking about here--releasing the results in a more timely way than we do now, which is waiting until after the next meeting. That may be of more value in essence to the public than having the TV cameras in here. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Syron. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': ""In terms of what Mr. Gonzalez is asking for--and that is a detailed record of some kind as well as timeliness--as Jerry said, to have cameras in here or to have an immediate release of a detailed transcript or memorandum of discussion would inhibit the process under all these circumstances.Going back to your issue that the public has a right to know at some point, I think we have had in the past, as I've read this material, a position that says, yes, we would be willing to accommodate them with a detailed memorandum of discussion again if we could have some assurances that there wouldn't be premature release of that material to the public through a FOI request.That issue still stands and we can be consistent with protecting the deliberative process and making [a detailed transcript] available if they're willing to protect that over time.And, as we apparently did in the past, we can make some compromise in terms of what others are talking about here--releasing the results in a more timely way than we do now, which is waiting until after the next meeting.That may be of more value in essence to the public than having the TV cameras in here.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Syron.'}]",no,,,,
989,995,19930203_478_14,MR. MULLINS.,"""[We can see] if there is anything else we might find useful--as opposed to the way we looked at it, which was to start with the assumption that openness is a threat to the quality of monetary policymaking, as it clearly is in a number of these areas.""","Okay, that was very useful. The subcommittee will reconvene in the future. I guess I heard about the same type of disagreement [we had in the subcommittee] on the ""E"" issue on federal funds rate announcements. That's something we'll take another look at given the issues that have been raised. A number of issues have been brought up that were not raised by the subcommittee. Also the issue of whether there isn't something else we could do, like press conferences, is worth looking at. The experience of the Treasury and others who have gone to that is that it's tough to get [the genie] back in the bottle. Is there something we could gain in terms of the perception of the reality? I think we should take a look at that with some caution. Again, maybe the early policy record disclosure--the question there is how early could we do it--would make a difference. But that would get us into the problem of [using] the asymmetric directive and things of that nature. We will continue to compile [the information referred to in] the appendix because I think it is worthwhile to have a sense of where we fit within the broader context of other institutions. Another thing we'll look at is the point that Jerry Jordan raised, which is that another way to look at this whole area is [to consider] what we could do that would contribute positively to the quality of monetary policymaking. [We can see] if there is anything else we might find useful--as opposed to the way we looked at it, which was to start with the assumption that openness is a threat to the quality of monetary policymaking, as it clearly is in a number of these areas.","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I think the press conference option is a very slippery slope. And if it ever slid into the perception that the Fed was marketing itself in some sense, I think it would be disastrous. And doing [press conferences] I don't think will cut off the kinds of [problems] Gary was referring to. So I am very dubious about that. But I know that is clearly an area where reasonable men and women can differ. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': ""I don't know, Dave, about your own experience but in the old days, which predated you, the Treasury never did [press conferences and the like] and then they got into it in spades.But I'm not so sure what the net effect of that has been in terms of [enhancing the] credibility of the President and the way it is perceived.If the Chairman really has something to say, I think he can always find a way to do it.Any time he wants an audience Joe Coyne can get him an audience [with no difficulty].So I don't think the Chairman lacks instruments to get [a message] out there when he wants to.I think the press conference option is a very slippery slope.And if it ever slid into the perception that the Fed was marketing itself in some sense, I think it would be disastrous.And doing [press conferences] I don't think will cut off the kinds of [problems] Gary was referring to.So I am very dubious about that.But I know that is clearly an area where reasonable men and women can differ.""}]",yes,,,,
990,996,19930323_29_2,MR. BROADDUS.,"""Of course, we can answer them when we get them, but if we write the answer out to begin with, it might be clearer.""","I would recommend that we make some brief announcement about the change because inevitably there are going to be questions. Of course, we can answer them when we get them, but if we write the answer out to begin with, it might be clearer. I also had a question. Will the subcommittee continue to exist? Will some of the issues we discussed at the last meeting, such as the release date and the possibility of doing something like the Memorandum of Discussion, still be on the table?","[{'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""I'd prefer to do it without the executive summary. I understand what Susan and Mike are saying, but I can't think of a time--again to use the private sector context--when I've seen private sector minutes with an executive summary. And I think the more we make it consistent with such minutes, the better off we are. So, I'd do it without the summary. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': 'Al. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""In fact, the message is precisely to make the point that there is nothing new, not that we're trying to improve this.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': ""Yes, and the Committee has steadfastly opposed newness in most proposals.It is true that this would represent a step forward in trying to communicate, and in its basic form our proposal is not supposed to be that.It's supposed to be a better organization of what we do now and a better labeling to make it more accessible to people.I think that's a useful distinction.Si.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': ""I think this is a constructive move.I can't see any down side.The up side does not seem to be considerable because I don't think it will diffuse the critics.I'd prefer to do it without the executive summary.I understand what Susan and Mike are saying, but I can't think of a time--again to use the private sector context--when I've seen private sector minutes with an executive summary.And I think the more we make it consistent with such minutes, the better off we are.So, I'd do it without the summary.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': 'Al.'}]",yes,no,,,
991,997,19930707_258_2,MR. JORDAN.,"""Our objective is to go to price stability, but we're predicting that the rate of inflation is going to be sticking in the 3 to 3 plus percent area.""","How do you handle that then when it says that the Committee's policies are related to inflation? Our objective is to go to price stability, but we're predicting that the rate of inflation is going to be sticking in the 3 to 3 plus percent area.","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'Is this an objective or is this a prediction? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""This is a prediction and I've made a very special point to avoid any implication that any of these [data] are goals. [We do this] because we are required by statute to present this sort of [stuff]. If we ever put down actual goals, then we really will have problems. So we fudge it for the Committee as best we can. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': ""I don't think in terms of [a forecast] by the central bank when it comes to putting down numbers for inflation; rather I think of these as our objectives because it's our policies that are going to produce these [outcomes].And [it bothers me] to see the Committee raise the central tendency for this year and also to have the central tendency for next year the same as it is this year and above where inflation came in in 1992.Am I to understand that the consensus of the Committee is that inflation is not going to go down anymore because we're not going to try and produce lower inflation?Is this an objective or is this a prediction?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""This is a prediction and I've made a very special point to avoid any implication that any of these [data] are goals.[We do this] because we are required by statute to present this sort of [stuff].If we ever put down actual goals, then we really will have problems.So we fudge it for the Committee as best we can.""}]",yes,,,,
992,998,19930707_590_6,MR. KOHN.,"""By constraining [the ability of] the Committee to take actions to go to an asymmetric directive or off asymmetry to symmetry, it would in some sense remove by very small amounts some of the flexibility of the Committee.""","Mr. Chairman, I perhaps just ought to remind the Committee very briefly that on several occasions over the last six or eight months it did consider this question of whether it should release information immediately. We had a Mullins' subcommittee on this and a full and open discussion on the issue. While a few members of the Committee tended to favor immediate release, they were, I think, a minority; certainly, no one moved to change the situation. The concerns of the Committee at the time were the questions of flexibility in policymaking, whether an immediate announcement of a directive, say, like the asymmetric directive in May, would constrain the Committee from going to asymmetry because they wouldn't want the announcement effect. In fact, the effect was that it did have markets raising interest rates; if they weren't sure, they were going to raise rates. By constraining [the ability of] the Committee to take actions to go to an asymmetric directive or off asymmetry to symmetry, it would in some sense remove by very small amounts some of the flexibility of the Committee. That was the concern the Committee had. The other issue that you need to think about if you're considering going to an immediate release is what to release. If in May, for example, right after its meeting the Committee had released the fact that it had gone to an asymmetric directive would that have significantly called off the reporters? One has to wonder. At least I would have to wonder whether the reporters wouldn't be all over the Committee members wondering why you had done it and under what circumstances a change would be made. [But] it would help [to release such information] and in most meetings it would stop right there, I think, once the Committee announced its decision. But then you do have the question of what you release along with that and how far to go. So, there are a couple of issues that were raised when the Committee last discussed this.","[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'But unfortunately there are some instances in which that is the case. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I was going to ask Don for a few remarks relative to this question because I think we have to make a statement. Do we want to issue something? I think, substantively, it's bound to inhibit somewhat this organization's function. Don. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. LAWARE.', 'text': 'If we made a prompt announcement of what went on in this room, we wouldn\'t have to concern ourselves with this; and we might throw a few undeserving reporters out of work.I\'m surprised that you feel that this is a thoughtful letter[from Chairman Gonzalez].This is part of the same attack on this institution that has been coming from Henry B. Gonzalez for some time.Just listen to the way this reads: ""I believe that most objective observers would agree that the above examples indicate the Federal Reserve on occasion disseminates information""--that sounds like deliberate disseminations--""through leaks and random public statements by Federal Reserve officials.""He seems to regard this as an accepted practice of this institution!'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Well, I accept your amendment.I didn't mean to imply that the letter was without--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'But unfortunately there are some instances in which that is the case.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I was going to ask Don for a few remarks relative to this question because I think we have to make a statement.Do we want to issue something?I think, substantively, it's bound to inhibit somewhat this organization's function.Don.""}]",yes,no,,,
993,999,19930921_97_15,MR. BOEHNE.,"""And that's a new kind of attitude.""","The Philadelphia region has improved a little but it continues to grow modestly and still, I think, lags the nation. Employment growth is sluggish and attitudes remain cautious, neither optimistic nor pessimistic. Where there has been some improvement is in the manufacturing sector, which has been a major drag on the economy. It's not that it's going up so much; it's that it has tended to stabilize after several months of decline. Also, New Jersey, which has been one of the hardest hit states in the country, appears to be improving. The weakest sector there was construction, and both residential and nonresidential are showing some signs of growth although from very low levels. Also, New Jersey had a good tourism summer and that has been a positive. More generally, I'm picking up the same kinds of vibrations that Si is in the commercial real estate market: That investment in real estate is beginning to look relatively attractive because other alternatives aren't so good. It has been a long time since I've heard the term REIT in our board room but I'm now hearing it again, which isn't all good news. We went through the REIT problems of 20 years or so ago. But this noise we hear about some improvement in commercial real estate is not for this year or next year so much as later in the decade. District bankers report weak commercial loan demand. However, when we pursue that a little more, they are beginning to wonder how they will finance a pickup in loan demand when it comes. And that's a new kind of attitude. They're worried about the runoff they've seen in deposits and whether they can get enough deposits back to fund what they think someday will be an upturn in loan demand. On the national economy, I think the fundamentals are about the same and will likely continue to be the same: moderate growth, subdued inflationary pressures, employment growth insufficient to cause a significant drop in unemployment, and cautious attitudes. I don't believe there's very much that monetary policy can do to alter that outlook even if we wanted to. But I think the respite from criticism that we've had in recent months is likely to come to an end. Impatience is going to be our greatest foe in the next few months. And I suspect that we will increasingly have to defend a no change policy as the restlessness over this rather disappointing employment growth continues to build.","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'We also expect modest inflation, about the same as the Greenbook. Some of that comes from a little stronger growth in business fixed investment and a little more accumulation of inventories, but basically we see very modest growth going forward. Because of our stronger growth projections, we see employment being a little better than what the Greenbook shows but, again, not enough to change how we view the economy into 1994. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Thank you. President Boehne. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'Low mortgage rates should keep housing starts strong in our region, especially in the mountain area where there is a bit of in-migration from California going on.Agriculture will report solid income, we think, due importantly to livestock prices; and crop losses will not be sufficient to offset that, including [those associated with]the effects of the flood and of the drought, and also some freeze that we had in portions of our region.In manufacturing, though, we see nothing that would show any strong improvement in our region, so we think it will continue to be rather slow as we go forward.For the nation, we expect moderate growth, as everyone else does, although we are somewhat stronger than the Greenbook.We also expect modest inflation, about the same as the Greenbook.Some of that comes from a little stronger growth in business fixed investment and a little more accumulation of inventories, but basically we see very modest growth going forward.Because of our stronger growth projections, we see employment being a little better than what the Greenbook shows but, again, not enough to change how we view the economy into 1994.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Thank you.President Boehne.'}]",yes,no,,,
994,1000,19931221_31_2,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""If not, before we go on to the substance of our meeting, the conventional [agenda], Sandra Pianalto is here for the first time and we'd like to welcome her.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Well, I thought the memorandum was really quite useful. I think the results that were obtained showed a fairly extensive advance in the state of knowledge in this area. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BEEBE.', 'text': 'I might add that the survey data even at moderate rates of inflation--U.S.-type rates--do indicate that the standard errors and the uncertainty of the forecasters rise with the level of inflation. So even at reasonable rates of inflation there is some evidence now that the level of inflation and inflation uncertainty are related. And that gets back to the distribution issue that Mike alluded to. '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""If indeed a very forceful and very tight inverse relationship exists, it is quite possible that if there's enough statistical noise in your data system you can bring 100 percent R square down to .2.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': ""Well, we recognize that it's been very hard to establish, as it is on any macro issue, anything definitive out of this research.But there were some analytical points that argue that low inflation could conceivably be better than no inflation.We tried to experiment, but we also thought the mission was to try to put some empirical flesh on these analytical [bones].Some progress was made but we have to concede that the lack of certainty--""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Well, I thought the memorandum was really quite useful.I think the results that were obtained showed a fairly extensive advance in the state of knowledge in this area.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BEEBE.', 'text': 'I might add that the survey data even at moderate rates of inflation--U.S.-type rates--do indicate that the standard errors and the uncertainty of the forecasters rise with the level of inflation.So even at reasonable rates of inflation there is some evidence now that the level of inflation and inflation uncertainty are related.And that gets back to the distribution issue that Mike alluded to.'}]",no,,,,
995,1001,19931221_140_1,MR. LINDSEY.,"""The only case I can think of was '66 where the Fed [implemented] just one small increase.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""The point I was trying to make was that if you do delay and inflation expectations in particular get going, you're going to have to raise rates not only to cover the higher inflation expectations but-- ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'But even more. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""-- if you have a certain inflation target you're going to have to overshoot to get that down again. But I don't have a rule of thumb. It would depend on where you were in the cycle and how far you-- ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': 'What percentage of the time did we do something and we were not asymmetric?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""Well, if this table is right, which goes from '87 through November of this year, we took seven actions from symmetric directives.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': 'As compared to how many altogether?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'Out of 20 from asymmetric directives.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': ""July '92 [unintelligible].""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'Don, I would imagine there was some kind of relationship between lags--how long it takes us before we start raising [rates]--and how far we have to raise [them].Do you have any good ideas or rules of thumb on that?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""No, I don't have any rules of thumb, Governor Lindsey.The point I was trying to make was that if you do delay and inflation expectations in particular get going, you're going to have to raise rates not only to cover the higher inflation expectations but--""}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'But even more.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""-- if you have a certain inflation target you're going to have to overshoot to get that down again.But I don't have a rule of thumb.It would depend on where you were in the cycle and how far you--""}]",no,,,,
996,1002,19931221_266_1,MR. KEEHN.,"""Well, I'm really raising the issue: Is the October 15th tape and transcript one that if somebody comes in and asks for it under the Freedom of Information Act we're going to have to deliver.""","Well, I'm really raising the issue: Is the October 15th tape and transcript one that if somebody comes in and asks for it under the Freedom of Information Act we're going to have to deliver. It is, right?","[{'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I agree with your proposal; I certainly support it. The only question I would raise, really, relates to access by other people. If there was no monetary policy discussion, would I gather therefore that this is something that could be discovered through the Freedom of Information Act? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Well, that is a very interesting question. And I think that's the type of thing we ought to discuss in the February meeting relative to how we proceed generally. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Of course, for me, I had independent knowledge and it had to be in my testimony.But there was a discussion, as I recall, of members saying: Well, do I need to put it in my testimony?And I think we need to set [the point] out clearly that the individuals in asking that question never had any doubt that you and the Secretary were going to reveal fully [the existence of] the tapes.So no one, as I recall, had any view of not wanting the tapes to be out there.We knew they had to be.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Keehn.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I agree with your proposal; I certainly support it.The only question I would raise, really, relates to access by other people.If there was no monetary policy discussion, would I gather therefore that this is something that could be discovered through the Freedom of Information Act?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Well, that is a very interesting question.And I think that's the type of thing we ought to discuss in the February meeting relative to how we proceed generally.""}]",yes,no,,,
997,1003,19931221_315_3,MR. STERN.,"""I'm wondering if it's possible to go even further.""",,"[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': ""The Chairman made a distinction, I made a distinction, and others have also between discussions of monetary policy and discussions of other matters. But as a legal precedent all we're saying is that we are giving them access to this particular tape; and that doesn't give them access to any other tapes, whether those other tapes include discussions of monetary policy or other matters. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MATTINGLY.', 'text': ""That's my view, yes. ""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'Okay. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MATTINGLY.', 'text': ""But you're giving up your right to keep all of that confidential when you let Henry Gonzalez look at it.On this particular matter, you're correct.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': ""Okay.Then just one final observation: I personally think we need to do this.I do agree with what Susan was saying before--that this will be the basis for singling out individuals and criticizing them and it won't be the end of it.I think we have to try it but, just following Tom's suggestion, we need to be prepared to defend statements that are going to be taken out of context in connection with this.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': ""I have a follow-up question to Virgil.The Chairman made a distinction, I made a distinction, and others have also between discussions of monetary policy and discussions of other matters.But as a legal precedent all we're saying is that we are giving them access to this particular tape; and that doesn't give them access to any other tapes, whether those other tapes include discussions of monetary policy or other matters.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MATTINGLY.', 'text': ""That's my view, yes.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'Okay.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern.'}]",no,,,,
998,1004,19940816_69_20,MR. HOENIG.,"""On the national front, we like others, see GDP growth going forward above its potential if we leave policy unchanged and we also see the inflation rate pushing up well above 3 percent next year.""","Mr. Chairman, the Tenth District continues to grow at a very healthy pace. Construction activity remains strong, although perhaps somewhat slower than the boom environment we saw just a few months ago. Manufacturing continues to improve, especially in durable goods, and we have seen continued employment growth there. Oil activity appears to be strengthening due to the firming in prices; that is no surprise. The agricultural sector will be okay, as record yields in a couple of the crops will be offsetting the lower prices that are expected. And the cattle market has strengthened as well. From what we see, our economy in the region should continue to be strong going forward. I want to share with you some data and anecdotal information that we have on bank activity in our District. We have seen some increased interest in the use of the discount window in the last several weeks. For all District banks, loan-to-deposit ratios have increased from about 56 percent in March to an estimate of about 65 percent in June. At banks that inquired about borrowing, loan-to-deposit ratios have increased from around 60 percent to almost 75 percent. So we are seeing some liquidity interest there. This reflects loan growth of about 14 percent in our District. The reason given by banks for this growth is very strong loan demand across the board, not just in agriculture. It's interesting that this also is true of our larger banks; some of the smaller banks that have come and asked us about borrowing have indicated that their upstream banks have been less willing to lend to them because of their own liquidity needs associated with outside lending, which is reflected in their increase in loan-to-deposit ratios as well. This is supported to some extent by the fact that deposit growth in our banks, on which they rely heavily, has grown at about half the rate of that for loans. Also, both the larger and smaller banks around the District report that they have eased their credit standards, that the loan demand is there, and that the banks want to make loans. We see some heavy competition throughout the District for loans. So the banking environment has changed, I think rather dramatically, in the last two years. On the national front, we like others, see GDP growth going forward above its potential if we leave policy unchanged and we also see the inflation rate pushing up well above 3 percent next year. So basically, we are in agreement with the staff's forecast and see some increasing pressures in the future.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Given the present stance of policy, we are running a substantial risk that the future trend of inflation will be in an upward direction. Inflation accelerates in 1995 in the Blue Chip consensus and in both the structural and vector auto-regressive models used by our staff. In our structural model, a significant rise in the funds rate in 1996 is required through the nominal income policy rule that is built into our structural model. Thank you. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoenig. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'We actually have a little more of a slowdown than was incorporated in the Greenbook for the second half because of the effects of the tightening moves so far, and also as a result of a decline in the amount of inventory investment.However at present levels of short-term interest rates, we clearly would see a strong bounceback in real GDP growth next year.Even with slower growth in the near term, I have significant concerns about the longer-term inflation outlook.Although estimates of slack are subject, as we all know, to considerable uncertainty, it seems likely that most if not all of the unused capacity in labor and product markets has been used up.That point certainly was emphasized in the Greenbook.Given the present stance of policy, we are running a substantial risk that the future trend of inflation will be in an upward direction.Inflation accelerates in 1995 in the Blue Chip consensus and in both the structural and vector auto-regressive models used by our staff.In our structural model, a significant rise in the funds rate in 1996 is required through the nominal income policy rule that is built into our structural model.Thank you.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoenig.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,ambiguous,
999,1005,19941115_27_2,MR. JORDAN.,"""That differs from a feeling that a policy action by this Committee to increase the funds rate will at least temporarily depress bond prices.""","Peter, your remarks suggested that some traders view intermediate- and long-term U.S. Treasury rates as not being at a high enough level. That differs from a feeling that a policy action by this Committee to increase the funds rate will at least temporarily depress bond prices. Which is it? Are they saying that the level is not yet high enough or are they waiting until that last shoe is dropped so they don't get caught holding an unwanted long position?","[{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'I think that that is in effect the sleeper that could catch up with the market. If fed funds were to be trading between 50 and 100 basis points above German overnight rates as we went into year-end, that would begin to shift the whole dynamic of leads and lags in corporate deposits and the like. That again would slightly shift the burden of proof to the speculative community. If they start to lose money by running a short dollar position on cost-of-carry, that will begin to work on their calculations. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Any other questions? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'The very fact that we are effectively at parity on the funds rate with German rates suggests that any move we make now will give the dollar a cost-of-carry advantage against the mark.One of the things that some people talk about and that I perceive as important is that the foreign exchange market generally is not focusing on that.That is, during the spring, that was the ""be-all-and-end-all"" of the exchange markets.People talked about the point in time when fed funds would be higher than overnight German rates.I think that that is in effect the sleeper that could catch up with the market.If fed funds were to be trading between 50 and 100 basis points above German overnight rates as we went into year-end, that would begin to shift the whole dynamic of leads and lags in corporate deposits and the like.That again would slightly shift the burden of proof to the speculative community.If they start to lose money by running a short dollar position on cost-of-carry, that will begin to work on their calculations.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Any other questions?'}]",no,,,,
1000,1006,19941115_149_8,MR. LINDSEY.,"""[Laughter] I don't think they were talking about the Australians and New Zealanders, but here we are.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'If so, if we are bridging to a 50 basis point move, which everyone anticipates, then it would be like building a bridge to the middle of the river, which is actually another thing they do in Rumania, [Laughter] but so much for that. The key is that I think markets will probably think we are all wet if we do. [Laughter] '}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Oh heavens! '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'You are in great shape today! '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'Frankly, I think that had we done that at the time, the move would have been both appropriate and, I would add, sufficient.Why did we have the intervention?It wasn\'t because of volatility or disorderly markets.It wasn\'t a signal of policy change at the time.The word that was most commonly used was a ""bridge.""A bridge to what?At the time, cynics in the market and a few of the press reports guessed it was a bridge to the election.I hope and trust that that was not the case, and no one knew what the outcome would be anyway.I think the other option was that it was a bridge to what we are about to do today.If so, if we are bridging to a 50 basis point move, which everyone anticipates, then it would be like building a bridge to the middle of the river, which is actually another thing they do in Rumania, [Laughter] but so much for that.The key is that I think markets will probably think we are all wet if we do.[Laughter]'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Oh heavens!'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'You are in great shape today!'}]",no,,,,
1001,1007,19950328_14_8,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""I gather that a number of the members have raised this issue.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'He is now Senior Vice President and Director of Research. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Is there discussion? Would somebody like to move it? SEVERAL. So move. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'Ernie Patrikis, who has been serving in that position, has been elected with the approval of the Board of Governors to the position of First Vice President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, effective June 1.His successor as the General Counsel of the New York Bank and the person we recommend as Deputy General Counsel of the FOMC is Thomas Baxter.Mr. Baxter is 40 years old, even younger than most of us, and a graduate of Georgetown University.His specialty has been litigation.We consider him an outstanding attorney and a very fine person, and we are proud to recommend him to you.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Would somebody like to move that nomination?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': 'Move it.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Would somebody second it?'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Second.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Without objection.Next we move to the election of an associate economist from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.President Moskow, would you like to address that?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I would like to nominate William Curt Hunter as the associate economist representing Chicago.He is now Senior Vice President and Director of Research.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Is there discussion?Would somebody like to move it?SEVERAL.So move.'}]",no,,,,
1002,1008,19950706_307_10,MR. BLINDER.,"""Those are two very coherent thoughts that I can relate to on these ranges.""","Right, I don't think there is either, and it is hard for me get exercised about this issue one way or another. Now, unlike the mumbling with great incoherence, there were two things that were said around the table that I can relate to very strongly. First, the kind of plan that Al Broaddus outlined seems to me greatly superior to these M ranges. I don't mean that to be an endorsement word-for-word; I don't think Al wants to hold it word-for-word. But it surely has to be a much better route than the M2, M3 mumblings. I just don't have any doubt about that. I think that something along those lines ought to be explored. The other thing I can relate to is what Gary Stern said. Mike and Don may remember that my first FOMC meeting was the Humphrey-Hawkins one last July, and I came out of that meeting saying that we really ought to get the staff working and put together all the research there is on the costs of inflation versus the benefits of disinflation; we should put together some kind of compendium of research, which is just what Gary suggested. Those are two very coherent thoughts that I can relate to on these ranges.","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The reason basically is that the M2 range is wholly an accident of history. M2 has become a crucial variable in discussions on the Hill. '}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'It used to be M1. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Yes. I am just saying that if you are asking for a rational reason for the current M2 range, I can't find one. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. YELLEN.', 'text': 'At any rate, that is where I would come out.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Blinder.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLINDER.', 'text': ""I am in the Lindsey-Yellen camp here, but I must say that I have a little trouble articulating a view on the Ms. I find myself mumbling with great incoherence in the extreme; these Ms are a problem.On your first point, I agree entirely.These are basically gibberish numbers; we don't take them seriously; the markets don't take them seriously; economists who pay attention to monetary policy don't take them seriously; and it is hard for me to get very exercised about them.Having said that, I think there is some argument for consistency with the nominal GDP target, and I also wonder why an M3 shift is a technical adjustment and an M2 shift is not.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The reason basically is that the M2 range is wholly an accident of history.M2 has become a crucial variable in discussions on the Hill.'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'It used to be M1.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Yes.I am just saying that if you are asking for a rational reason for the current M2 range, I can't find one.""}]",yes,yes,utterance,ambiguous,
1003,1009,19950926_114_4,MR. FISHER.,"""Even the expectation of it can create the disturbance.""","I'll just insert there: A number of the European countries continue to prefer to hold a relatively large portion of their reserves in dollars for investment purposes. But in a crisis, they want to convert those into marks to be able to defend their own currency. There are two effects on the market that in the very short run can create this sort of disturbance. Even the expectation of it can create the disturbance.","[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'The effect on the dollar, it seems to me, is largely secondary. It partly depends on what you mean by the dollar. The dollar tends to weaken relative to the deutschemark the less likely the EMU appears to be and therefore the more likely the deutschemark will be free to rise relative to the dollar. Then, the ebb and flow of discussion does tend to affect the dollar: The way I think of it is that for people who have liquid assets it is easier to get out of dollars into deutschemarks to cover positions than to get out of Swedish kronors into deutschemarks. So, you have a backwash effect on the dollar, at least in the short run. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': ""You saw, for example, how Mr. Arthuis got beat up on Thursday by Mr. Waigel who came out at Majorca and said that maybe we just ought to postpone the EMU for a couple of years.Now, that's not necessarily anti-EMU, but it changes the whole timetable.The debate is heightened as the time for various kinds of decisions comes closer.The effect on the dollar, it seems to me, is largely secondary.It partly depends on what you mean by the dollar.The dollar tends to weaken relative to the deutschemark the less likely the EMU appears to be and therefore the more likely the deutschemark will be free to rise relative to the dollar.Then, the ebb and flow of discussion does tend to affect the dollar: The way I think of it is that for people who have liquid assets it is easier to get out of dollars into deutschemarks to cover positions than to get out of Swedish kronors into deutschemarks.So, you have a backwash effect on the dollar, at least in the short run.""}]",yes,no,,,
1004,1010,19950926_248_1,MR. MOSKOW.,"""Mr. Chairman, we currently seem to have the luxury of a great deal of flexibility because the goals established for the Committee are ambiguous and in some cases contradictory.""","Mr. Chairman, we currently seem to have the luxury of a great deal of flexibility because the goals established for the Committee are ambiguous and in some cases contradictory. But I think we are moving past that point. Once this issue is raised to the level of a serious discussion with hearings and so on, we are going to have to change. We have been in the process of becoming much more accountable in terms of the announcements that we make after each meeting, in terms of the publication of the transcripts, and our more open disclosure process generally, and I support all of those things. But the world clearly is changing, and there is increasing pressure on us to clarify our longer-term objectives. So, I support the thrust of this bill, although I have one major caveat. I like the fact that it repeals the Humphrey-Hawkins bill. My reaction at the time it was enacted was that members of Congress voted for it mostly because of emotional ties to Hubert Humphrey, not because they really supported what the bill actually said. I like the emphasis on price stability. I think it is clearly, as Governor Blinder said, our primary objective and where we have the most impact. I like the flexibility that the bill would give us. If we go down this road, I think it is written about as well as we could expect it to be written. It can provide a major public education role for us as well, an opportunity for us to educate the public. In that respect, I think it will have a useful side benefit. The caveat is the repeal of the Employment Act of 1946. I must confess that I haven't reread the Act, and I have to go back and reread it now since Governor Yellen raised this as a point. But in general I support the thrust of the Mack bill.","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': 'That is not what we ought to be doing with the statutory language. We should not be in that kind of position. The Committee has been operating for several years toward the goal of price stability, and I think any Committee group, however it is constituted, would have the same goal. Again, I come back to the fundamental threshold question I have had from the beginning: Why have the bill at all? '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Moskow. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': ""I think this bill is a vast improvement over Humphrey-Hawkins, but I have some of the same concerns that were expressed by a number of people, notably Governor Blinder and Governor Yellen.Clearly, the responsibility and the objective of a central bank in the long term should be price stability.But this bill does not emphasize the other aspects of the central bank's responsibility, namely economic stabilization, to the extent that I would like.To the degree that this bill is codifying what we have been doing, I ask the basic question: Why do we need it?I just don't think this kind of thing should be enshrined in legislation.I am a little concerned about the view that the language can be finessed.That is not what we ought to be doing with the statutory language.We should not be in that kind of position.The Committee has been operating for several years toward the goal of price stability, and I think any Committee group, however it is constituted, would have the same goal.Again, I come back to the fundamental threshold question I have had from the beginning: Why have the bill at all?""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Moskow.'}]",yes,no,,,
1005,1011,19950926_259_3,MS. PHILLIPS.,"""One of the major positives of the bill is the clear focus on price stability and the purchasing power of our currency.""","I generally support the thrust of the bill. I think that it is useful to clear out some of the clutter in the current Humphrey-Hawkins Act. One of the major positives of the bill is the clear focus on price stability and the purchasing power of our currency. But I, too, would like to see a recognition that this focus is not inconsistent with economic growth. In fact, this is how monetary policy specifically can contribute to economic growth. I like the at least perceived flexibility that is in the bill in terms of calling upon us to develop definitions and to construct the required reports. I think a great deal of work would need to be done on our part to figure out how we would want to structure these reports. Perhaps we should give some thought as to how much clarification we want up front or how loose we want to make it. I, like others, am concerned about this question as to how tightly we would be wired to price stability at all costs and whether we would have the flexibility to make adjustments to business cycles and supply shocks. I do support the thrust of the bill, but I hope that we can preserve a good deal of flexibility to manage policy depending on the circumstances.","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': ""I think that would be a terrible contribution to public policy. So, I am in favor of the bill, but I would like the bill to make it even more clear, although it does make it reasonably clear, that price stability is a means to an end. I don't like the requirement that the Federal Reserve establish moving numerical goals for the level of prices. I also would want to improve the language to make it clear that the Federal Reserve does include twelve Federal Reserve Banks and that the boards of those Banks have a role to play in the formulation of monetary policy. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Phillips. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': ""It also would create an absolute zoo for the people who are of the hair-shirt school to appear not just once while the bill was being considered, but semiannually.It is likely that after the Chairman concluded his testimony, he would be followed by a group of learned types whose opinions on whether their view of the numerical goal for inflation was better than our view of the numerical goal would be given almost equal weight at least by some members of the Banking committees.I think that would be a terrible contribution to public policy.So, I am in favor of the bill, but I would like the bill to make it even more clear, although it does make it reasonably clear, that price stability is a means to an end.I don't like the requirement that the Federal Reserve establish moving numerical goals for the level of prices.I also would want to improve the language to make it clear that the Federal Reserve does include twelve Federal Reserve Banks and that the boards of those Banks have a role to play in the formulation of monetary policy.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Phillips.'}]",yes,yes,,,
1006,1012,19951115_148_4,MR. PRELL.,"""But over limited periods of time, this relationship clearly has varied tremendously, and there isn't a very compelling short-run macro story that pushes you toward equilibrating these things or having the nominal GDP growth rate higher than the nominal interest rate.""","We have discussed this in the past, and as I said, we pondered this question of whether having nominal interest rates running higher than nominal GDP growth over time is an unnatural relationship. It strikes one as being something that is unsustainable. We think of this, in terms of government budget positions and so on, as a relationship that's unsustainable. But over limited periods of time, this relationship clearly has varied tremendously, and there isn't a very compelling short-run macro story that pushes you toward equilibrating these things or having the nominal GDP growth rate higher than the nominal interest rate. Certainly, our view in formulating this revised forecast is that, given real interest rates in the current environment--one in which we are experiencing ample availability of credit, and we looked at all the other parameters of financial conditions at this point--these real interest rates are not creating quite the damping effect on aggregate demand that we anticipated earlier. But we do expect that they will create some drag on final demand and that we will have this tapering off in the growth of consumer and business expenditures. We think there is a coherent story here. But it does in essence have implicit in it, if you like that model, a relatively high natural real rate of interest for the forecast period.","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'If you take that away, it says bond yields are now expected to go back up from current levels while both nominal growth and real growth are going down. I am trying to imagine how those work out, especially how they would play out in the marketplace if people actually saw things that were reported along the lines of the Greenbook projection. What that means is that in the latter part of the projection period, you would have nominal interest rates running 2-1/4, 2-1/2 percentage points or more above nominal GDP growth. What kind of stories would you tell about the anticipated inflation component of nominal interest rates versus the reported inflation rates that you project, or the anticipated or ex ante real rates as opposed to the real growth rates in your GDP projections? I have trouble reconciling what you say about financial markets, nominal interest rates, and your projections for the economy. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'Your forecast now also assumes a 5-3/4 percent fed funds rate--and I will make some remarks about that not appearing to be as restrictive as previously envisaged--and the bond market has rallied because markets thought that we would lower the funds rate.If you take that away, it says bond yields are now expected to go back up from current levels while both nominal growth and real growth are going down.I am trying to imagine how those work out, especially how they would play out in the marketplace if people actually saw things that were reported along the lines of the Greenbook projection.What that means is that in the latter part of the projection period, you would have nominal interest rates running 2-1/4, 2-1/2 percentage points or more above nominal GDP growth.What kind of stories would you tell about the anticipated inflation component of nominal interest rates versus the reported inflation rates that you project, or the anticipated or ex ante real rates as opposed to the real growth rates in your GDP projections?I have trouble reconciling what you say about financial markets, nominal interest rates, and your projections for the economy.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
1007,1013,19960703_435_4,MR. LINDSEY.,"""If we saw a rise in inventory accumulation, to use your example, that suggested a sustained, above-trend rate of economic growth, we would move right away.""","Mr. Chairman, yesterday I thought Governor Meyer laid out two issues very well. One of them is how GDP will grow relative to trend. Your analysis showed exactly how we would respond. If we saw a rise in inventory accumulation, to use your example, that suggested a sustained, above-trend rate of economic growth, we would move right away. That is in fact why you are recommending an asymmetric directive. I do not think there is any disagreement about that. The other issue, to simplify it in terms of the labor market, is where the existing unemployment rate is relative to the natural rate, the NAIRU. I also have not read Governor Yellen's paper, which probably has had about the best press so far of any paper in history for a paper that may not yet be finished. [Laughter]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'Given the upside risks that are associated with the projections and weighing that against the downside risk of a small tightening move, I think there is a very good case for moving now. If I were voting, I would put it in that context. But I probably would say that the asymmetric directive toward tightening that we have on the table gives us an appropriate direction for policy and we can wait for increasing evidence at least until August. I would be willing to wait that long, but I really think that a small move now would have tremendous benefits in the long term. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Lindsey. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, after listening to you, I have a better sense of the difficulties in this process--the uncertainty about the model or analytical framework that we use to assess the incoming data.I also appreciate Bill McDonough's comment that we need to have the public's confidence and support.I think, though, that we ought to be careful before we abandon the model we have been using, as some members have said already.I would be reluctant to abandon such a model given our past experience.Our projections suggest that there will be increases in inflation, although the change in our inflation measures introduces a confusing element.Given the upside risks that are associated with the projections and weighing that against the downside risk of a small tightening move, I think there is a very good case for moving now.If I were voting, I would put it in that context.But I probably would say that the asymmetric directive toward tightening that we have on the table gives us an appropriate direction for policy and we can wait for increasing evidence at least until August.I would be willing to wait that long, but I really think that a small move now would have tremendous benefits in the long term.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Lindsey.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,entailment,-5 sentences
1008,1014,19960820_63_1,MR. PRELL.,"""I would just note that in this auto industry situation there also are peculiarities that people will be focusing on in terms of whether the union is able effectively to set a pattern after they have negotiated an agreement with one of the auto makers.""",,"[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""That is not so clear to me. There have been significant strikes in the past where evident union defeats had a very damping effect on labor unions. For example, the flight controllers' strike, which was quashed, did more to suppress union power than almost anything else in the 20th century. ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Yes, but I think that was in an environment in which people generally felt that unions were detrimental to the overall competitiveness of U.S. industry. They may still feel that way, but I think there is much more of a feeling now that the wage earner is the one who is bearing the brunt of efforts to improve U.S. competitiveness. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'So, I am wondering whether, even if a strike does not have an immediate inflationary impact, its potential to affect even nonunion relationships between labor and management may be significant going forward.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'That would depend on how the strike came out, whether, for example, it was a significant management victory.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Yes.But just the fact that a strike occurred, I think, is something that is--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Well, I wonder.That is not so clear to me.There have been significant strikes in the past where evident union defeats had a very damping effect on labor unions.For example, the flight controllers' strike, which was quashed, did more to suppress union power than almost anything else in the 20th century.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Yes, but I think that was in an environment in which people generally felt that unions were detrimental to the overall competitiveness of U.S. industry.They may still feel that way, but I think there is much more of a feeling now that the wage earner is the one who is bearing the brunt of efforts to improve U.S. competitiveness.'}]",no,,,,
1009,1015,19960820_175_2,MR. MEYER.,"""This position reflects my willingness to support trend growth at full employment with stable modest inflation in the near term, patiently awaiting opportunity down the road for renewed progress toward price stability.""","Mr. Chairman, I also support your recommendation that we make no change in policy at this meeting and retain an asymmetric directive. This position reflects my willingness to support trend growth at full employment with stable modest inflation in the near term, patiently awaiting opportunity down the road for renewed progress toward price stability. I simply am not persuaded at this point that the current policy setting is inconsistent with stable inflation. Given the lags in response to monetary policy, particularly when it comes to inflation, it is often prudent to move to change policy on the basis of forecasts, and that is the challenge that the staff forecast presents to us today. But my willingness to move preemptively in this case has to be conditioned by what seems to me the inconsistency in the story that the current unemployment rate is too low to sustain stable inflation, given that we have seen stable inflation for the last two years. So at this point, I think it would be prudent to hold the line and wait for additional data. Nevertheless, I think there are risks of higher growth and there are undoubtedly risks that inflation at the current unemployment rate might move up. Therefore, I think the asymmetric directive is very reasonable. Thank you.","[{'speaker': 'MS. YELLEN.', 'text': ""And particularly because a move today would constitute a change of direction and a surprise to the public and to financial markets, I would prefer to have a slightly higher degree of confidence that a policy change is actually needed before making one. In situations where forecast uncertainly is extremely high, I, at least, find it appealing to look for some guidance from the recommendations of sensible feedback rules, so I would simply reiterate what Don Kohn pointed out, which is that the funds rate judged by Taylor's Rule or other simple benchmarks is now at quite a reasonable level given current levels of unemployment and inflation. On the other hand, the rule definitely calls for a policy adjustment if either of two things occurs: first, if the degree of labor market slack declines appreciably, presumably because demand fails to slow as we anticipate; or second, if broad inflation measures rise. Under those conditions, I would certainly support a tightening of policy. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Meyer. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. YELLEN.', 'text': ""So, the level of uncertainty about the future course of inflation under current policy settings is extremely high.And particularly because a move today would constitute a change of direction and a surprise to the public and to financial markets, I would prefer to have a slightly higher degree of confidence that a policy change is actually needed before making one.In situations where forecast uncertainly is extremely high, I, at least, find it appealing to look for some guidance from the recommendations of sensible feedback rules, so I would simply reiterate what Don Kohn pointed out, which is that the funds rate judged by Taylor's Rule or other simple benchmarks is now at quite a reasonable level given current levels of unemployment and inflation.On the other hand, the rule definitely calls for a policy adjustment if either of two things occurs: first, if the degree of labor market slack declines appreciably, presumably because demand fails to slow as we anticipate; or second, if broad inflation measures rise.Under those conditions, I would certainly support a tightening of policy.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Meyer.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,utterance
1010,1016,19960924_35_13,MR. MCTEER.,"""We continue to hear increased anecdotes about tight labor markets and rising pressure on wages, and we hear more rumblings that the higher labor costs will have to be passed on in higher prices at some point in the future.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'It is a risk, and certainly this is a part of the picture where households that have enjoyed very sizable income gains recently, and probably are continuing to do so in September, add a certain buoyancy in the economy that is visible in consumer sentiment. That is probably a response to the very favorable labor market environment. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Any further questions? If not, would somebody like to start the roundtable? President McTeer. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'To be sure, there have been sizable revisions at times in the past.On the broader point, as I tried to suggest, we certainly do see evidence that hiring has continued to be quite robust, probably outstripping the trend increase in labor force growth.However, I am not sure how much that tells us about things going forward.It may be in essence that this reflects the strong production gains that we have seen recently rather than the anticipation of much more rapid growth in business than we have projected.I think the indicators of business sentiment that we have suggest that firms are anticipating growth, but not necessarily growth that differs greatly from what we are forecasting.It is a risk, and certainly this is a part of the picture where households that have enjoyed very sizable income gains recently, and probably are continuing to do so in September, add a certain buoyancy in the economy that is visible in consumer sentiment.That is probably a response to the very favorable labor market environment.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Any further questions?If not, would somebody like to start the roundtable?President McTeer.'}]",no,,,,
1011,1017,19961113_87_12,MR. STERN.,"""What I mean is that retailers are prone to complain and in fact do complain almost no matter how good things are.""","As far as the District economy is concerned, there is little to report because the very healthy trends continue, as has been the case for a long time. Labor markets remain very tight, and I have no doubt that there are outright labor shortages that are restraining activity and expansion in some parts of the District. Anecdotes of wage pressure have increased and while we are hearing more about that, the pressure does not appear to be showing up in any of the broad measures of wages. I am not in a position to reconcile the anecdotes in one direction and the data in the other. Part of the explanation would appear to be a greater reliance on variable pay, which seems to be both larger and going deeper into organizations than we earlier thought. But the evidence in support of that explanation still is very fragmentary at this point, and I would not put a lot of emphasis on it. Whatever one might say about wages and wage pressures, business people remain adamant, as a number of people have already commented, that they cannot raise prices and that inflation is not something they are confronted with or that they contemplate. As far as the national economy is concerned, I would characterize developments in recent months as generally pleasant surprises. Inflation has turned out to be less of a problem than I feared earlier, and demand does seem to be slowing along the lines that we anticipated. I am not particularly worried about the third-quarter slowdown in consumer spending. That story looks to me like the dog that does not bark or did not bark. What I mean is that retailers are prone to complain and in fact do complain almost no matter how good things are. The fact that I do not hear them complaining suggests to me that sales remain satisfactory. I clearly do not understand some of the dynamics in the labor market. If we work our way through the data, there are some signs of an upward creep in the rate of wage increases. But given that we probably have been underestimating the rate of growth of productivity, it may be that cost pressures have been offset to this point. Having said that, we know that businesses are relying increasingly on less skilled, less experienced workers because they are the only ones available to fill vacancies, and we may be at the point where we are about to run through the good news as far as being able to offset somewhat higher wages with productivity improvements. That is, we may start to see real increases in labor costs and the pressures that follow from that. I do not know how much to make of that at this point because, as I said earlier, it seems to me that most of the surprises in recent months have been pleasant.","[{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'She was from Texas! '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MCTEER.', 'text': ""I don't know where she was from. ""}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Massachusetts! [Laughter] '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MCTEER.', 'text': 'On the other hand, there is little evidence that the tightness is translating into upward pressures on prices.The labor picture is interesting.I have heard a lot of stories recently and have seen some of the problems that companies increasingly are experiencing in their efforts to find enough help at the lower end of the wage spectrum.We hear of restaurants offering signing bonuses for new employees.People are going into 7-Elevens and getting a job offer when they are not even looking for work.[Laughter]'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Did they think you were worth the minimum wage?[Laughter]'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MCTEER.', 'text': 'Well, I am not getting any respect as a result of that offer![Laughter] My own evidence of the tightness in the labor markets came just before the elections.For the first time in my life, I was polled about my political views, and the interviewer had trouble reading the questions to me.She never could pronounce the word ""conservative.""'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'She was from Texas!'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MCTEER.', 'text': ""I don't know where she was from.""}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Massachusetts![Laughter]'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern.'}]",no,,,,
1012,1018,19970520_120_4,MR. GUYNN.,"""In view of the hour, I will not repeat all the arguments.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MS. PHILLIPS.', 'text': 'I do not have strong feelings on the symmetry question because if we were to move in the intermeeting period, I think there would be some kind of consultation. I do think that tightening is eventually going to be needed, but since inflation has been rather benign recently, it seems to me that there is room to wait a bit longer. As I said last time, I am not sure that a federal funds rate of 5-1/2 percent is that far out of alignment, particularly if we get a slowdown in the expansion or if productivity has moved us to a higher growth potential. It does seem to me that we have some time to let things play out a bit more, and I think it would be best to conserve our monetary tools for now. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Guynn. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'Even though people would associate me with the deliberate approach, I think one could characterize a tightening move today as opportunistic.Finally, I do not think that inaction on our part will do anything to stem speculative behavior.If anything, inaction will foster such behavior.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Phillips.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. PHILLIPS.', 'text': 'I could support ""B"" symmetric or asymmetric.I do not have strong feelings on the symmetry question because if we were to move in the intermeeting period, I think there would be some kind of consultation.I do think that tightening is eventually going to be needed, but since inflation has been rather benign recently, it seems to me that there is room to wait a bit longer.As I said last time, I am not sure that a federal funds rate of 5-1/2 percent is that far out of alignment, particularly if we get a slowdown in the expansion or if productivity has moved us to a higher growth potential.It does seem to me that we have some time to let things play out a bit more, and I think it would be best to conserve our monetary tools for now.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Guynn.'}]",no,,,,
1013,1019,19970930_46_3,MR. PRELL.,"""We thought that somehow the world now was right and that we had a grasp of its functioning.""","One of the risks we repeatedly have pointed to and then last time said it might not be such an asymmetric risk was the role of the stock market and the implications for consumption. As you may recall, the revised national income accounts that we received after the August meeting showed that the saving rate had fallen so that the wealth effect seemingly was working the way one would have expected. We thought that somehow the world now was right and that we had a grasp of its functioning. We were not quite so concerned as we had been about the risk that we would suddenly find consumption surging in a belated response to the accumulation of wealth. In the interim, the stock market has once again risen more than we expected. The difference is not big, but it is there, and consumption expenditures are surpassing even our expectation of a robust upturn in the third quarter. Going forward, I do not have the sense that our forecast implies an asymmetry of risks in terms of aggregate demand being stronger or weaker. But it makes me nervous that we keep making revisions in the same direction, and my sense is that there really is a boom mentality at work in the economy today. The financial markets are supplying ample credit to borrowers, and the ongoing appreciation of share prices, now more concentrated in the smaller cap issues, is providing cheap equity capital for many companies. I worry that these booming conditions may be even more strongly maintained than we have forecast. But in terms of the nuts and bolts of putting this forecast together and the assumptions we have made for deviations from what we think of as normal behavior over time, I don't think we have an obvious tilt in the risks. Let me add something that Don Kohn just whispered in my ear. We have helped, I think, to balance these risks in a sense by changing the policy assumptions. As we talk about the changes in the forecast, you should not overlook that we have incorporated in it a more stringent set of policy actions.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'We think this will put some damper on what the pickup in inflation otherwise would be going forward. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Minehan. '}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'As Jack mentioned, most of the good questions already have been asked. Mike, I know we have had an asymmetric risk picture in most of the recent Greenbook forecasts and certainly in the way the Committee has approached setting its directives. Would you say that the risks incorporated in this forecast are larger than they have been in earlier ones in terms of the degree of ""judiciousness"" that has been used in interpreting some of the evidence? '}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'It was not a sectoral phenomenon; it was a divergence between the labor market and the facilities market.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'Since manufacturers cannot produce without workers, the labor market is still relevant here.We do hear, and there were some Beigebook comments, that at least in some instances manufacturers were finding that they had to raise their wages in order to attract and retain the workers they needed.But the system seems to be working in such a way that we think it behooves us to give some weight to our expectation that capacity utilization is going to remain relatively moderate.We think this will put some damper on what the pickup in inflation otherwise would be going forward.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Minehan.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'As Jack mentioned, most of the good questions already have been asked.Mike, I know we have had an asymmetric risk picture in most of the recent Greenbook forecasts and certainly in the way the Committee has approached setting its directives.Would you say that the risks incorporated in this forecast are larger than they have been in earlier ones in terms of the degree of ""judiciousness"" that has been used in interpreting some of the evidence?'}]",yes,no,,,
1014,1020,19980929_114_3,MR. PARRY.,"""That seems a little surprising given what happens to the equity market and particularly with the coefficient that you have in terms of net worth.""","I have a question for Dave Stockton. The assumption in the forecast is that the saving rate remains basically constant at one half percent. That seems a little surprising given what happens to the equity market and particularly with the coefficient that you have in terms of net worth. I presume that what is happening is that the weakness in the equity market is being offset by such things as lower interest rates, which stimulate consumption. Would you say that your forecast that the saving rate will not be moving up as a result of the assumed decline in the stock market might be a downside risk to the outlook?","[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'This suggests, I would think, that there is a risk of some substantial cumulation on the downside. Now, we could talk ourselves into being too gloomy about these things. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Sure. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'It is useful to think about worse case scenarios, but worse case scenarios do not always come true. Let me just end on that point. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'It is the affected economies in Asia that were much weaker than we had them before.But clearly in Latin America and, I think, in eastern Europe and Russia--which are not as important to our economy as to the economies of Europe as I tried to illustrate in my little story about our forecasts of the G-3 nati ns within Euroland--there clearly has been a big impact.The interesting development is our forecast.I did not go back and look at it, but I believe our U.S. forecast for 1998 even now is probably stronger than it was a year ago.Interestingly, our Euroland forecast is slightly weaker than we had it last September.The Euro area has taken a very large hit on the external side.This suggests, I would think, that there is a risk of some substantial cumulation on the downside.Now, we could talk ourselves into being too gloomy about these things.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Sure.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'It is useful to think about worse case scenarios, but worse case scenarios do not always come true.Let me just end on that point.'}]",yes,no,,,
1015,1021,19980929_193_11,MR. POOLE.,"""It is not just an accident.""","I support the proposed cut of 25 basis points. I have a preference for symmetry, but I don't believe the issue is very important. In the long run what we do is what determines the outcome, although I believe that what we say can be extremely important in the short run. So, we need to be clear about our direction and our purpose. We have to emphasize that our intention is to focus on the U.S. economy not because we are unconcerned with what is going on abroad but because we have only one policy instrument. At best, we can serve one policy objective and that should be to achieve price stability or maintain low inflation in the United States. That is a very important message that we need to repeat continuously. Market expectations are very important in terms of how monetary policy exerts its effects in the short run. We have seen a large decline in interest rates in recent months. That is not just good luck. It is not just an accident. It is a consequence of the market's understanding of the Federal Reserve's objectives and what its policy is going to be in the long run. That decline in interest rates could not have occurred if the market did not believe that the incoming data were consistent with low inflation and that we would in time act to bring interest rates down as required to keep the economy in'the neighborhood of full employment. So, I think that the consistent message that we send about the importance that we attach to our long-run objective of price stability is essential to having built in stabilizing effects from market fluctuations in rates. I would like to comment briefly on the discount rate. In the long run, I would like to see the discount rate closer to the federal funds rate, but I think that this is not the time to make any such adjustment. I hope that the Board will accept a 1/4 percentage point cut in the discount rate so that the change in the federal funds rate at this time will be viewed as perfectly normal and will not send any possibly confusing messages to the market.","[{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""I think it is the right measure of response at this point. As far as the tilt is concerned, I'm almost indifferent about it. I believe that we are going to be so driven by events that the tilt is likely to have no substantive influence on what we do. If we had a different disclosure policy and there were an announcement effect, I think it would be worth spending more time on this question, but I am happy to go along with your recommendation. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Poole. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'I also think the current situation may require more than one 25 basis point cut in the funds rate in the future, and therefore I would prefer a directive with asymmetry toward ease.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoenig.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': ""Mr. Chairman, I also support a 25 basis point reduction.As to the tilt, I would much prefer no tilt for a couple of reasons.Number one, I don't think the facts today warrant it.Number two, I think you are correct in your observation that events will drive what we do next, and changing circumstances may well require a discussion at a telephone conference before a decision is made.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': ""A 25 basis point reduction captures my feeling.I think it is the right measure of response at this point.As far as the tilt is concerned, I'm almost indifferent about it.I believe that we are going to be so driven by events that the tilt is likely to have no substantive influence on what we do.If we had a different disclosure policy and there were an announcement effect, I think it would be worth spending more time on this question, but I am happy to go along with your recommendation.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Poole.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,contradiction,utterance
1016,1022,19990203_179_10,MR. KELLEY.,"""At the pace the economy has been growing, we are very likely getting close to those limits.""","Thank you. Mr. Chairman, I would not have thought it possible, but somehow the Committee's policy dilemma continues to deepen rather than to show signs of beginning to resolve itself. The economy continues to surge ahead. We all, or at least most of us, believe that it should and will slow. But we have had good reason to believe that for some time and yet the pace, if anything, has accelerated and there are few signs of slowing so far. If the pace of growth begins to slow as we expect, we likely will have to address the possible need for further easing at some point. If, however, the present pace or something close to it should continue, we soon will almost surely need to consider at what point policy will have to lean into that strength in the interest of sustainability. I say this realizing fully the difficulty that such a policy move could present internationally. But even if one adopted the most optimistic reasonable scenario of the strength and durability of the current virtuous cycle--and I am pretty much in that camp--it is still necessary to realize that it has limits beyond which unsatisfactory conditions begin to gain momentum. At the pace the economy has been growing, we are very likely getting close to those limits. In the Humphrey-Hawkins forecast made at this time last year for 1998, we were well off the mark. Everything turned out to be much better than we expected. Growth was stronger, unemployment lower, yet inflation quiescent. The outcome was literally wonderful. Can we reasonably expect a repeat? I doubt it. At the moment, working with the available data, the risks appear to be decidedly on the upside. But I can envision the possibility, perhaps the likelihood, that this could be reversed very quickly for any of a combination of reasons arising from the domestic or international, real or financial economy. I continue to be uncertain as to which direction our next move may be or when we should take it. But my sense is that the upside risks will have to begin to dissipate soon or they are going to need to be addressed.","[{'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'We are not precluded from acting preemptively if new information were to tip the balance of risks to the outlook much more decisively toward an unacceptable probability of higher inflation. Such a probability, if it were to emerge, would in my judgment warrant a policy response. We are not there yet in my view, but we may be soon. We must be careful not to misinterpret the signals that we receive. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'Given the string of surprises we have had, including the strength of the fourth quarter, like many others here I approach a forecast of slowing with some skepticism and see the risks both internationally and perhaps even domestically as shaded slightly to the upside compared to the baseline forecast.I think the appropriate response for us is to rely less on a future as predicted by models and more on inferences, both quantitative and qualitative, that come in with the latest data.Obviously, for those of us who take this approach there are some challenges.By necessity we are likely to have a shorter time frame for action.However, the corollary is that once the evidence is more clearly in hand, we should not hesitate to move decisively if the data so warrant.We are not precluded from acting preemptively if new information were to tip the balance of risks to the outlook much more decisively toward an unacceptable probability of higher inflation.Such a probability, if it were to emerge, would in my judgment warrant a policy response.We are not there yet in my view, but we may be soon.We must be careful not to misinterpret the signals that we receive.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,entailment,utterance
1017,1023,19990630_103_19,MR. POOLE.,"""We have the same situation in agriculture and so forth that has existed for some time and has already been commented on by others, so I have nothing to add.""","Mr. Chairman, it's obvious that everyone around the table is ""chafing at the bit"" to discuss policy, and I'm going to do my part to behave in a disciplined fashion here by just discussing the outlook. In the Eighth District the story is very simple; it's the same old story. We're seeing exactly the same kinds of things that we have been seeing for a good number of months now. I make a special point of trying to talk to my contacts about what seems to be different, what seems to be on the radar screen that hasn't been there. My impression is very clearly that firms are successfully managing their labor market pressures. For example, is very concerned about the labor market situation for his company. He says that its needed employees at the Louisville hub. He says that the company is having a hard time all around the country--except in Philadelphia, Ed, by the way. He says he's having no problem in Philadelphia; I don't know why the situation there is different. higher hiring referral bonuses and retention bonuses. So, clearly, that company is concerned. On the other hand, who was quite concerned about his labor situation earlier in the spring, says that now his folks are able to find labor pretty readily though they are behind on IT staffing. What seems to be happening is that case-by-case firms are coming up against the labor market pressures and they are able to manage the situation successfully. Of course, managing the situation in some cases means that they are paying more wages or retention bonuses or something, so there's perhaps some up-creep in wages involved, although obviously it is not showing up in the national statistics. Another thing that has come on our radar screen is that our bank examiners are expressing a little concern--I want to emphasize it's a small degree of concern--about loan administration in the banks. Credit demands are strong enough and loan officers are in tight enough demand that our examiners have the sense that some of the banks they examine are simply not able to have disciplined loan administration. So there may be a bit of sloppiness in that area that could produce some problems later on. No one is very concerned about it, but I mention it because it was the first time I really had heard about that from our examiners. We have the same situation in agriculture and so forth that has existed for some time and has already been commented on by others, so I have nothing to add.","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'We need to find a way to tactical symmetry--to a position where we, the public, and the markets think we are watchfully waiting but not looking for windmills to knock down. Because of the public perception of where we are, I do not think we can achieve tactical symmetry by taking no action at this meeting. However, when we discuss what action to take in a later portion of the meeting, tomorrow morning, I am absolutely convinced that it must take us to tactical symmetry, even against a strategic background of concern about inflation. Thank you. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Poole. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'Clearly, the general posture of the Federal Reserve should always be to remain highly alert to imbalances, to forces which could end sustainable growth.Our policy regarding price stability on a continuing philosophical basis should be seen as symmetric, as being against both deflation and inflation.Our strategy, on the other hand, should vary with conditions.Deflation is sufficiently unlikely at this time that we should have a strategic position of concern about inflation.But we should not be in a tactical position of being constantly poised to attack an enemy that does not appear visible to me.We need to find a way to tactical symmetry--to a position where we, the public, and the markets think we are watchfully waiting but not looking for windmills to knock down.Because of the public perception of where we are, I do not think we can achieve tactical symmetry by taking no action at this meeting.However, when we discuss what action to take in a later portion of the meeting, tomorrow morning, I am absolutely convinced that it must take us to tactical symmetry, even against a strategic background of concern about inflation.Thank you.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Poole.'}]",no,,,,
1018,1024,19990630_197_2,MR. KOHN.,"""I'm not sure of the subsequent moves because they weren't at every meeting.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'So the Committee is in a difficult position. It is a position, I guess, in which you might argue that neither symmetry nor asymmetry, as the markets potentially see it, accurately represents your perspective. Given the potential reactions to the announcements, the question is how to walk through that minefield, how to least mislead market participants. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Vice Chair. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': ""Don, even though in the 1994-1995 period we didn't announce a tilt until after the following meeting, do I remember correctly that we did seven consecutive firming moves and that each and every one of them was from a symmetric directive? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': ""Yes, you think the next action is more likely to be a tightening than an easing, but you're not sure when.That's the information the markets are looking for and that's the sort of thing that used to be conveyed in the minutes and the Humphrey-Hawkins testimony.That is now conveyed in the announcements and the publication of the symmetries, but you have less opportunity to explain the nuances--to say on the one hand or on the other hand.So the Committee is in a difficult position.It is a position, I guess, in which you might argue that neither symmetry nor asymmetry, as the markets potentially see it, accurately represents your perspective.Given the potential reactions to the announcements, the question is how to walk through that minefield, how to least mislead market participants.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Vice Chair.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': ""Don, even though in the 1994-1995 period we didn't announce a tilt until after the following meeting, do I remember correctly that we did seven consecutive firming moves and that each and every one of them was from a symmetric directive?""}]",no,,,,
1019,1025,19990630_228_16,MR. BOEHNE.,"""We ought to see how reality plays out and go from there.""","I think we do need to raise the funds rate 25 basis points today. It seems to me that we are largely boxed in by our rhetoric and we ought to do it and get this episode behind us. There is a reasonable economic rationale for this, given the uncertainty that we're facing, and that is a ""take-back"" rationale from last fall, with financial markets and the rest of the world doing better. But I think we want to leave open the question of how much of a take-back we need to do. It may be 25, it may be 50, or it may be 75. Who knows? I think we ought to shift the focus back to the economy and back to the data that come in. If, for example, we become more confident about productivity increases, if we have a continuation of the pattern of prices and wages that has prevailed over the past several years, then 25 may be fine. If, on the other hand, we become less confident of the productivity increases and we begin to see some early warning signs that inflation is picking up, then we are going to have to do more. And we ought to do more in those situations. As for the tilt, I think we ought to go back to a symmetric directive today. We need to calm things down. We need to shift the public's emphasis away from psychoanalyzing this Committee and back to the economy; in my view a symmetric directive would help do that. Announcing the tilt, at least in this initial experiment, turned out to be a cruder instrument than I think we had anticipated, largely because of the interaction of rhetoric. At this point we just don't know enough to say how much, or if, we have to raise rates further, and therefore we shouldn't box ourselves in for the future. We ought to see how reality plays out and go from there.","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': ""We ought to be ready to go in either direction. We know there's going to come a time when things will again be changing rapidly in a downward direction, and I would prefer to enter that environment with the risks in balance. We do not have balanced risks right now. I think we need to get to a position where we're comfortable that the risks are symmetric as soon as we can. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': ""So I think announcing something that is interpreted by the market as meaning that we have already decided to raise rates at our next meeting, as I think the May announcement was interpreted, gets us into an undesirable position.I can tell you already that I don't want to go into the October 5 meeting with a predisposition to raise rates because I don't want to be blamed for the crash of the stock market in October![Laughter] I also know that I want to get to the December meeting--and possibly even the November meeting, but I'm much more certain about the December meeting--clearly feeling that the risks are balanced.If anything, we ought to feel that we have as much chance of lowering rates as raising them once we get to December and into the next year.We ought to be ready to go in either direction.We know there's going to come a time when things will again be changing rapidly in a downward direction, and I would prefer to enter that environment with the risks in balance.We do not have balanced risks right now.I think we need to get to a position where we're comfortable that the risks are symmetric as soon as we can.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Boehne.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,entailment,utterance
1020,1026,20000628_151_1,MR. GRAMLICH.,"""I have enjoyed the discussion, too.""","I have enjoyed the discussion, too. Let me cut it a slightly different way. On the inflation targeting issue I think there are three levels on which we can confront this. One is internally in our own heads. At that level I actually find inflation targeting quite useful. I have often thought in terms of that and in my statements have described what we ought to do in those terms, and I will probably continue to do that. There is a second level that I would call internally within the Committee. I agree with others that twice a year it would be a very good idea for Don to put on the agenda a topic that involves our talking about long-run strategies for monetary policy. Maybe the designation of that agenda item could be something a bit less pejorative--for example, ""anchors of monetary policy"" or something on that order. But I do think it is a good idea for us to have these issues on the agenda for discussion twice a year at a specified time. Maybe as we do that we will converge on what our targeting strategy could be and what kinds of specific targets we might have. Perhaps we won't converge, but I think the exercise would be good for us and we will learn as we talk whether we can converge. There is a third or external level, which is the Congress. That includes whether Congress ought to be giving us inflation targets and that sort of thing. Frankly, I have always thought that these issues are awfully subtle and not easily adapted to Congressional decision-making. If Congress gives us an inflation target, it is going to be pretty rigid; there are going to be times when that target is valuable and there will be other times when we find it very rigid and very confining. So I would get off the train at that point. But on the first two levels, internally in our own heads and internally within the Committee, I would welcome our thinking about monetary policy in these terms; I think that is a good idea. But externally I don't think it's a good idea.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MEYER.', 'text': ""So, I think at least some further discussion of this issue is worthwhile. And while I don't see us moving any time soon, I think having an opportunity to voice such issues around the table when we have these two-day meetings and to make some incremental progress toward a consensus is really valuable. I have enjoyed this discussion this morning. Thank you. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Gramlich. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MEYER.', 'text': ""I have a view--I call it price stability plus a cushion--that may be a little higher than some others would have, but I think it is useful for us to have coherent internal discussions and appropriate transparency regarding what we're trying to do.I believe we should try to agree among ourselves and communicate to the public where we are trying to go because the public could say they are not really sure where we are going.Is 2 percent for the CPI just about right?Do we understand what that means and if we achieve that rate for the CPI is everything fine?Or are we really heading for zero?Well, that is a big difference.Do we know?So, I think at least some further discussion of this issue is worthwhile.And while I don't see us moving any time soon, I think having an opportunity to voice such issues around the table when we have these two-day meetings and to make some incremental progress toward a consensus is really valuable.I have enjoyed this discussion this morning.Thank you.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Gramlich.'}]",yes,no,,,
1021,1027,20010131_155_6,MR. FERGUSON.,"""I assume it can be made manageable.""","Let me ask you two factual questions. The Chairman just said that there is no effective exchange rate risk involved. On page 5 of your memo, one of the things you say is that the margin needed to protect against both the price risk and the exchange rate risk, even for dollar RPs against foreign governments, is uncertain. If we go down this path, how much exchange rate risk is there really? Is it zero? I assume it can be made manageable.","[{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': ""I don't like the metaphor of either a cat's paw or front-running very much, Governor Ferguson. I don't think we're doing either one. Clearly, as Don and I have both said, it is our preference and intent to have the initial discussion of this be put forward through the Chairman's testimony and the Committee's minutes, in which you have a lot more input than I on how it is styled and stated. I think there are ways to introduce this that make clear both the tentative nature of what we're doing and the fact that we are exploring a lot of options. I think that's something well within our ability to convey. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': ""Given what I heard this morning, where almost no option seemed to be off the table, I'm a little concerned that we may be creating a presumption either at the Desk or in the markets that this is our preferred long-term solution.In some sense the exploratory process could be viewed as a cat's paw in leading the market toward that assumption.How do you think you can manage that?""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': ""I don't like the metaphor of either a cat's paw or front-running very much, Governor Ferguson.I don't think we're doing either one.Clearly, as Don and I have both said, it is our preference and intent to have the initial discussion of this be put forward through the Chairman's testimony and the Committee's minutes, in which you have a lot more input than I on how it is styled and stated.I think there are ways to introduce this that make clear both the tentative nature of what we're doing and the fact that we are exploring a lot of options.I think that's something well within our ability to convey.""}]",yes,no,,,
1022,1028,20010320_109_11,MR. KELLEY.,"""Our policy choice must be made in the face of this very fundamental uncertainty.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. There's very little that I can add at this point about the economy, so I'll be brief. But let me try to summarize the situation. It was 100 percent predictable well in advance of the economic slowdown that going through such a period would be painful. We are now in a slowdown and it is painful. It was almost as certain that after a period of slowing a time would come when we would welcome an upturn but would have to go through a very disconcerting stretch of uncertainty about whether an upturn or more decline was in the cards. We seem to be in that stage now. In recent days we've all been studying the data, reading analyses, receiving briefings, and sharing ideas. The bottom line would seem to be this: While there are good reasons to believe that the economy will soon turn up--and I believe that is the highest probability outcome--we cannot know or be overly confident that an upturn is in train. It is still possible that the various negative forces existing today will drag us into further weakness. Our policy choice must be made in the face of this very fundamental uncertainty. In golf, which I play poorly, club selection before a shot usually presents the player with three options--an aggressive choice, a central tendency, and a conservative choice. [Laughter] Each option usually has its own plausibility. In different situations a player might well go with any of the options, depending on his or her objectives at the time and an assessment of the risks. Shortly I expect Don Kohn to tell us that in this game a conservative choice is to ease 25 basis points, 50 basis points is a central tendency, and 75 is aggressive. Of course, the loudest voices in the gallery want us to go for it, but that doesn't mean that we should. In deference to your request that members not discuss policy positions until the next part of the meeting, Mr. Chairman, I will withhold further comments until then. [Laughter]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': ""I think the stance of monetary policy has to make two things clear to all observers. One is that we will ease when we need to, including today. The second is that in addition to today's move, we are prepared to act if and when necessary. Thank you. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley. '}]","[{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': ""You no doubt recall that he was the economics minister for President Menem, whose political skills along with Mr. Cavallo's technical economics skills were a very favorable combination for the country.It's important that Argentina emerge from this situation in good shape because the political system in Brazil is looking rather fragile.The number of corruption cases that are getting near the president and his closest ministers is increasing to the point that a political or economic contagion coming from Argentina might find Brazil not terribly capable of dealing with it.So, I think the downside risk coming from outside of our country is very considerable indeed, with a number of accidents looking as if they could happen.The likelihood of escaping all of them would impress me as quite low.Given that situation, I very much sympathize with what Governor Ferguson just said.I think the stance of monetary policy has to make two things clear to all observers.One is that we will ease when we need to, including today.The second is that in addition to today's move, we are prepared to act if and when necessary.Thank you.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Kelley.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,neutral,
1023,1029,20010627_76_5,MR. MEYER.,"""Is that fair to say?""",,"[{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""In the study our staff used an approach involving a set of OECD countries, and they used OECD data. So the weakest link, if you will, is to find the data. It's certainly possible that if we focused our attention on one or two countries that produce data that they don't all have, we could make some great progress in trying to see what is going on. But we continue to work on this problem. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Meyer. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': ""I went through the article to which Karen was referring, and I think ideally what one would like to have is a chart like Dan's Chart 3 for all the other countries--a chart that just sets out the decomposition of productivity growth.But as I remember, we can't get a BLS-type breakdown of the capital stock for other countries.Isn't that right?I think the United States is unique in permitting analysts to do that.So in a way, until there is much more disaggregated data in these other countries, this issue is going to have to remain in the domain of speculation.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""It is certainly true that it is a struggle to get data to work with--even something as basic as hours as opposed to number of employees.In the study our staff used an approach involving a set of OECD countries, and they used OECD data.So the weakest link, if you will, is to find the data.It's certainly possible that if we focused our attention on one or two countries that produce data that they don't all have, we could make some great progress in trying to see what is going on.But we continue to work on this problem.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Meyer.'}]",no,,,,
1024,1030,20020130_331_4,MR. BROADDUS.,"""But to come back to something that you said, Roger, this raises a question about the timing of the release of the minutes for the meeting.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'That is made public only with the release of the minutes, which of course occurs two weeks later. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'FOIA is an American law. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Exactly. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': ""That's right. President Broaddus. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': ""But I am uncomfortable about releasing the vote tally, including the name of a dissenter, by itself.The important information is really not found in the numerical tally but in the direction and the rationale for any dissents.Simply reporting the existence of a dissent after an FOMC meeting without revealing its motivation could add noise to markets unless it is clarified.Even if dissenters are identified, it seems untenable that further questions about the direction and rationale of their dissenting vote could be left unanswered until the release of the minutes, especially given the typical six-week lag in their release.In the interim, the pressure for disclosure would be intense, and the possibility of erroneous speculation would be counterproductive.I also would like to know a bit more about the practices of other central banks.For example, the Bank of England doesn't release the vote tally along with the press release announcing its decision.That is made public only with the release of the minutes, which of course occurs two weeks later.""}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'FOIA is an American law.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Exactly.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': ""That's right.President Broaddus.""}]",no,,,,
1025,1031,20020626_24_6,MR. ROLNICK.,"""They don't show that that gives a stable relationship either.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': ""But if we break the period differently and look at the interval from 1992 to 2000, they actually do well in forecasting inflation, much as they did in the period prior to 1984. The third and last point I'd mention is that this study looked only at forecasting over a twelve-month period. When one looks out over a twenty-four-month period, the Phillips curve models do better than the naive model. So clearly, there are limitations to these Phillips curve types of models, but I wouldn't discard them completely. I think there is some benefit to policymaking from these types of approaches. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': ""We became much more anti-inflation in the 1980s and the 1990s than we were before, and that is likely to have influenced the behavior of inflation.So to some extent then, the poor performance of these inflation-forecasting models that are estimated with data going back to the 1960s is not surprising.If we look at the Phillips curve models in the 1984 to 1992 period, right after the change in monetary policy, they don't do well.But if we break the period differently and look at the interval from 1992 to 2000, they actually do well in forecasting inflation, much as they did in the period prior to 1984.The third and last point I'd mention is that this study looked only at forecasting over a twelve-month period.When one looks out over a twenty-four-month period, the Phillips curve models do better than the naive model.So clearly, there are limitations to these Phillips curve types of models, but I wouldn't discard them completely.I think there is some benefit to policymaking from these types of approaches.""}]",no,,,,
1026,1032,20020924_132_3,MR. BERNANKE.,"""The reluctance of firms to hire or invest is particularly discouraging given continued strong spending by consumers and the remarkable growth of productivity.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I agree with many speakers today that the recovery remains disappointingly soft. The reluctance of firms to hire or invest is particularly discouraging given continued strong spending by consumers and the remarkable growth of productivity. The consumer and business sectors can't diverge indefinitely. That can be resolved in one of two ways, and one of them is rather unpleasant. A particularly striking aspect of the Greenbook forecast to me is that it envisions continuing declines in core inflation. As shown in the table on page 11 of Part 1, the rate of increase in the core PCE deflator is projected to fall from 1.9 percent in 2001 to 1.3 percent in 2004. Over the same period the core CPI inflation is projected to fall from 2.7 percent to 1.9 percent and growth in the GDP deflator from 2.0 percent to 1.4 percent. Some alternative Greenbook scenarios have the core PCE deflator falling to below 1 percent by 2004. I think inflation as low as projected is potentially a serious risk for the economy. To the extent that we believe the Greenbook projections for inflation as well as the unemployment rate, both of which suggest slack for the foreseeable future, this seems to me to be a prima facie case for easing policy at this point. I understand, of course, that things are never that simple. There's an enormous amount of uncertainty to be reckoned with, and uncertainty suggests caution for central bankers as well as for businesses. One concern I do have about easing now is that it might exacerbate the imbalances in the economy by further heating up sectors that are already strong, such as residential construction and autos, while only indirectly benefiting investment and the labor market. I also appreciate the dangers of excessive fine-tuning, oversteering, and overshooting. For these reasons, I understand that we may want to wait to see how events unfold before taking further action. I hope, though, that we will not set the threshold for taking action too high. The strategy of preemptive strikes should apply with at least as great a force to incipient deflation as it does to incipient inflation. Thank you.","[{'speaker': 'MR. OLSON.', 'text': 'My feeling, however, is that if the market is impatient, maybe this is the time for us to be patient. On the other hand, as had to be done two or three weeks ago in this city, there was enough anecdotal evidence out there that it was deemed necessary to move to a slightly heightened state of concern. I think the same is true for us. It seems to me that it may be time to move from a code yellow to a code orange. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Bernanke. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. OLSON.', 'text': 'When you combine that with the fact that the banking industry is in a strong capital position, a strong liquid position, and has good asset quality, I can\'t figure out if that should be reassuring or a point of concern.I think, on balance, it\'s more reassuring.And coming back to something President Jordan said earlier, given where we were a year ago, if we had known then that there was so much dry powder in the system, I think we would have found that very reassuring.On the other hand, the terms ""fatigue"" and ""stagnation"" suggest to me that there is a nervous impatience in the air.Combined with our fiscal circumstance, that impatience is certainly a cause for concern.My feeling, however, is that if the market is impatient, maybe this is the time for us to be patient.On the other hand, as had to be done two or three weeks ago in this city, there was enough anecdotal evidence out there that it was deemed necessary to move to a slightly heightened state of concern.I think the same is true for us.It seems to me that it may be time to move from a code yellow to a code orange.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Bernanke.'}]",yes,no,,,
1027,1033,20030625_34_4,MR. STERN.,"""If I ask myself why I might be concerned about deflation, exhibit 1 is one answer--the Depression.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I came out pretty much where you did with regard to the four questions--so I'll attenuate my remarks--but let me briefly explain why. We're having this conversation, at least from my perspective, because of our concerns about the possibility of deflation. If I ask myself why I might be concerned about deflation, exhibit 1 is one answer--the Depression. While there may not be a consensus as to the causes of the Great Depression, people usually cite a crisis in banking, inappropriate monetary policy, wage stickiness and collusion in the labor market, and maybe the Smoot-Hawley Act. None of those conditions seems to be particularly prevalent or relevant today in my judgment. Another answer, exhibit 2, is Japan. There again people cite serious problems in the banking industry, stop-and-go policies, and serious resource misallocations having to do with trying to preserve dying or uncompetitive industries, and so forth. Again, as in the case of our own Depression, those conditions seem to be largely absent in our economy today. The third possible reason I come up with for our concern today has to do with disappointment about the rate of growth in the economy. Depending on what time period one selects, the economy has been growing at 11/2 to 21/2 or 3 percent over the last group of quarters. My suspicion is that, if it were growing at 4 or 5 percent or more, we wouldn't be very concerned--even with price indexes going up at a rate of 1 percent or so, plus or minus--about the possibility of deflation. If that judgment is right, then what we're really concerned about is the pace of economic growth. So what it seems we should be involved in, at least for the moment, is a fairly traditional exercise of economic stimulus in an effort to further boost aggregate demand. That suggests to me that for now our primary focus should be on our incremental policy changes, if any.","[{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': ""That's a consequence, and if we're not willing to accept that consequence, then we're not going to be able to carry through on a policy that's oriented toward forcing liquidity into the system and targeting some quantities. That's where I come out. I believe it's very important before we get too deeply into the institutional detail to start with the very simple proposition that we can't fix both the price and the quantity. At some point we may have to choose. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': ""The more we get into targeting longer-term rates, the more directly responsible we are for capital gains and losses that people realize when we change the rate that we peg.What we want in my view is for the market essentially to be responsible for making those judgments and not the central bank.So it seems to me that the best way to go if we get into this situation--and I agree with Cathy that it's not likely--is to focus on quantities, making sure that we force a lot of liquidity into the system, and let rates go where they will.That will mean that the federal funds rate frequently will trade right down at zero.That's a consequence, and if we're not willing to accept that consequence, then we're not going to be able to carry through on a policy that's oriented toward forcing liquidity into the system and targeting some quantities.That's where I come out.I believe it's very important before we get too deeply into the institutional detail to start with the very simple proposition that we can't fix both the price and the quantity.At some point we may have to choose.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern.'}]",yes,yes,sentence,contradiction,utterance
1028,1034,20030625_287_3,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""But for the purposes of this statement, we're saying that all of the signs plus the additional stimulus would suggest a significant acceleration in economic activity.""","No, ""sustainable"" means any rate of growth for which the internal dynamic of that growth has the capability of continuing. Now, there are disagreements as to where that rate is. But for the purposes of this statement, we're saying that all of the signs plus the additional stimulus would suggest a significant acceleration in economic activity. At the moment, however, we'd be hard pressed to argue that the data we have seen thus far could be characterized as self-perpetuating.","[{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': ""I would argue against that on the ground that it will raise a lot of questions about what that means in these circumstances. I'd leave it alone. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Yes, I think it's a word of art in this type of statement. We've used it before; and in the context of what we've done, it becomes clear. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MCTEER.', 'text': 'I always thought we used ""sustainable"" to mean low enough, and we\'re talking here about growth not being high enough. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': 'But the actions taken were adjustments to what we termed colloquially ""the discount rate.""'}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Right.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': ""It's the same situation now except that it's the primary credit rate that we refer to as the discount rate.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I assume everyone has had a chance at this stage to read the statement.Is it acceptable?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MCTEER.', 'text': 'Would you accept one little suggestion?'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""I don't know![Laughter]""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MCTEER.', 'text': 'I would suggest changing the word ""sustainable"" to ""sufficient.""'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': '""Acceptable.""'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MCTEER.', 'text': 'Or ""acceptable.""'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'You want to take out ""sustainable"" and put in ""acceptable""?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARRY.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': ""I would argue against that on the ground that it will raise a lot of questions about what that means in these circumstances.I'd leave it alone.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Yes, I think it's a word of art in this type of statement.We've used it before; and in the context of what we've done, it becomes clear.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. MCTEER.', 'text': 'I always thought we used ""sustainable"" to mean low enough, and we\'re talking here about growth not being high enough.'}]",yes,no,,,
1029,1035,20031209_81_7,MR. STOCKTON.,"""Brian also mentioned hedging demands, but we think that was probably a relatively short-lived effect.""","I mentioned the five-year inflation expectations, in part, because we don't think the five-to-ten-year inflation expectations are conditioning current wage and price setting decisions. I don't think anybody is setting a wage contract over the next year or two or three based on five-to-ten-year inflation expectations. But those expectations obviously would matter for the real rate on longer-term securities. I think Brian Sack, our briefer yesterday, mentioned that there is a liquidity story but that there is also a possibility that market participants have shifted their views as to your longer-term inflation objective. It seems a bit far-fetched that so big a change in expectations could have occurred over such a short period of time. So we're somewhat skeptical about that. Brian also mentioned hedging demands, but we think that was probably a relatively short-lived effect. I don't know whether Brian Madigan or Vincent wants to say any more about that.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': ""The TIPS spread was mentioned in the staff briefing yesterday, and in your comments today you said that for the period over the next five years there has been a bit of up-and-down movement but that the five-to-ten-year period has shown a quite dramatic increase in inflation expectations. In the staff briefing yesterday part of the explanation was the increased liquidity in the market. But it was clearly noted that that was not the only reason. I was wondering if you could talk about some of the other reasons for the increase in the TIPS spread--which is really inflation compensation--in that five-to-ten-year period. Is this a warning sign for us that a significant number of people in the financial markets are concerned that we're losing control over inflation? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': ""I'm certainly hearing a lot of comments about inflation from people I talk to, particularly because of concerns about the size of the budget deficit and the long-term problems of Social Security and Medicare, which we all know about.The TIPS spread was mentioned in the staff briefing yesterday, and in your comments today you said that for the period over the next five years there has been a bit of up-and-down movement but that the five-to-ten-year period has shown a quite dramatic increase in inflation expectations.In the staff briefing yesterday part of the explanation was the increased liquidity in the market.But it was clearly noted that that was not the only reason.I was wondering if you could talk about some of the other reasons for the increase in the TIPS spread--which is really inflation compensation--in that five-to-ten-year period.Is this a warning sign for us that a significant number of people in the financial markets are concerned that we're losing control over inflation?""}]",yes,no,,,
1030,1036,20040630_125_10,MR. GAGNON.,"""To our mind, that may explain why the pass-through seems to be higher lately.""","I think we agree on what we've seen in the past and, of course, we both are wondering what will happen in the future. I'd just like to say that I believe a lot of the differences in our views come from how we think about commodities. That's an issue to consider going forward. We both looked at import prices, disaggregated and aggregated. When we look at aggregated import prices, we tend to put commodity prices separately in our regression in addition to exchange rates. We, too, find that there was less pass-through in the 1990s. The question is, What is the story lately? I think that's where we may have some difference. In the past few months we've been saying that more of the rise in prices has occurred because commodity prices are rising, which we think has some exchange rate component but also has a large cyclical component--domestic demands in China or, more broadly, a world demand component. To our mind, that may explain why the pass-through seems to be higher lately. Time will tell which will turn out to be right. Frankly, I have a lot of sympathy with perhaps a return to a higher pass-through in the future because I think, as Linda said, the lower pass-through in the '90s might have been because it was a time when China's economic growth was rising and their currency was pegged to the dollar. Even though a lot of countries in Asia had exchange rate movements up and down in the '90s, for those who compete with and integrate their production processes with the Chinese, there was an 800-pound gorilla that they couldn't really compete against. So they were forced to price along with China, and China's currency was tied to the dollar and thus our pass-through estimates would fall. When we've looked bilaterally at which countries seemed to have passed through less in the 1990s, it was Japan, developing Asia, and Mexico. So it's quite possible that, if China were to revalue or think of a change in that respect, all bets could be off. Maybe we'd go back to the historical pass-through. The jury is out on that.","[{'speaker': 'MS. GOLDBERG.', 'text': ""I tend to go with the longer history in part because, after we've had a strong dollar period, foreign producers have been able to be quite profitable and build up their margins. That also gives them scope for accepting lower margins for a while, but that's a finite process. One interpretation is that, in 2002 or early 2003, foreign producers were living off the fat of a strong dollar period, and maybe that's not a long-run relationship to be locked in. Also if you think of the Asian countries, China's prices haven't been changing against the dollar because their currency is pegged to the dollar, so China's competitors might have been more constrained in moving their prices. Whether or not that is something that can persist is debatable. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. GOLDBERG.', 'text': ""What I see is that the pass-through did decline; it seemed to be lower over the 1990s.But recent price observations, while on the low side, are still within historical bounds.So which is it?Do we have a permanently lower relationship, or are we on the low side of something that historically has been high and low?I tend to go with the longer history in part because, after we've had a strong dollar period, foreign producers have been able to be quite profitable and build up their margins.That also gives them scope for accepting lower margins for a while, but that's a finite process.One interpretation is that, in 2002 or early 2003, foreign producers were living off the fat of a strong dollar period, and maybe that's not a long-run relationship to be locked in.Also if you think of the Asian countries, China's prices haven't been changing against the dollar because their currency is pegged to the dollar, so China's competitors might have been more constrained in moving their prices.Whether or not that is something that can persist is debatable.""}]",yes,no,,,
1031,1037,20040630_261_11,MR. OLINER.,"""But even after you account for the fundamentals, there's a part of the increase that is hard to explain.""","The biases referred to in that footnote were really technical biases in the construction of the two measures shown here, the rent measure and the price measure. Had we not adjusted for them, the rent-to-price ratio would have been much lower at the end point. So it would have looked more alarming. In part we think the published data have some technical problems that need to be taken care of before this analysis can be done in a way that is meaningful. With regard to the question of owning versus renting, it depends to some extent on what is happening to interest rates because that changes that calculation at the margin. So it's really important to plot any kind of valuation measure relative to an opportunity cost. Just showing the rent-to-price ratio I think would have been somewhat misleading; it's really that gap that we think is the meaningful measure of valuation. And it looks somewhat rich, taking account of the fact that interest rates are relatively low and income growth has been relatively strong. I don't want to leave the impression that we think there's a huge housing bubble. We believe a lot of the rise in house prices is rooted in fundamentals. But even after you account for the fundamentals, there's a part of the increase that is hard to explain.","[{'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'The other question I have deals with chart 3, on housing prices. My question is about the footnote, which says that the rent-price ratio is adjusted for biases in the trends of both rents and prices. Is that where you pick up demographics and lifecycle factors? What are these biases in the trends, and how does one think about changing demographics and the relative attractiveness of owning a home versus renting? Give me some sense of whether or not the shape of the curve that you show here is likely to reverse, as you imply, or likely to stay relatively low. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. WILCOX.', 'text': ""We think that what monetary policy is doing is altering the balance of factors like the gap and resource utilization, for example.When we have moved to test a direct influence of money in our price equation, it's a little like a mirage on the highway:Sometimes it's there a little bit, and sometimes it disappears.We can't find a reliably strong statistical relationship.So we think this is a good, albeit imperfect, framework to use for the entire analysis.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. FERGUSON.', 'text': 'The other question I have deals with chart 3, on housing prices.My question is about the footnote, which says that the rent-price ratio is adjusted for biases in the trends of both rents and prices.Is that where you pick up demographics and lifecycle factors?What are these biases in the trends, and how does one think about changing demographics and the relative attractiveness of owning a home versus renting?Give me some sense of whether or not the shape of the curve that you show here is likely to reverse, as you imply, or likely to stay relatively low.'}]",yes,no,,,
1032,1038,20040810_71_18,MR. MOSKOW.,"""Of course, there are reasons to think that uncertainty might have risen; we've just talked about the oil prices, terrorist threats, and so on.""","Light. Automakers will need a good August and September to clear dealer lots of their '04 model year cars; otherwise, they will need to reduce production schedules for their '05 models. Other sectors never really experienced much of a slowdown in June, and their activity remains strong. This pattern has been evident in new orders for construction, agricultural, mining, and some IT equipment as well as in demand for advertising. Air travel has continued to move higher during the summer, with bookings solid for the fall. In contrast, information we have heard about IT services suggests weakness. On the second question, the outlook for inflation, our District contacts continue to talk about cost pressures, but there are few indications of pass-through to prices so far. There's not much news on wages, but rising health care costs remain a major concern. And costs for some material inputs, notably construction materials, steel, and energy remain elevated. Our contacts still expect these costs to ease, but it is taking longer than they had anticipated. Similarly, the supply chain bottlenecks that I discussed last time are also taking longer to resolve. Capacity constraints are particularly severe in transportation, and there are concerns that these could persist and cause substantial problems during the peak fall shipping season. As I noted, despite all these cost pressures, we're hearing only limited reports of price increases downstream. Turning to the national outlook, we think that the economy's soft patch is temporary. The July employment report makes us nervous but doesn't change this assessment. Assuming that the recent payroll data are not spurious, what risks do they suggest? One possibility is that we're back to an environment similar to last year, when uncertainty held back hiring even though growth continued. Of course, there are reasons to think that uncertainty might have risen; we've just talked about the oil prices, terrorist threats, and so on. However, our business contacts have not talked explicitly about increased uncertainty holding back their hiring, and we know that indications of spending showed activity picking up again in July. Moreover, we think the fundamentals continue to be strong: Real income growth has been maintained despite the weak employment growth and higher energy prices, we still have strong underlying productivity growth, and monetary policy remains very accommodative. We are concerned about the persistently high oil prices. Their movements seem to be driven largely by geopolitical concerns, as Karen was discussing, so oil is a wild card both for growth and for inflation. We all know that these sorts of supply shocks make for difficult policy decisions. Still, with regard to prices, the data suggest that core inflation remains well contained. So at this time continuing to remove policy accommodation at a measured pace seems appropriate.","[{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'In particular, retailers told us that they saw something of a bounceback; and looking ahead, merchants sound quite bullish about the upcoming holiday season and are planning to build their inventories accordingly. As you know, light vehicle sales also bounced back in July. So far, reports suggest that sales in the first week of August continued to be strong. One manufacturer even told us that they are looking for sales in the month to be about 181/2 million units. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Excuse me--was that for light vehicle or total sales? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': 'On the first question, we get a sense from our Seventh District contacts that their business is good but apparently not robust enough to generate substantial hiring.We have received mixed reports on employment.Our contacts at temporary-help firms say that they are placing temporary workers across a wide range of industries.In addition, they are increasing their placement of workers in permanent jobs.Some of our more general business contacts even report scattered labor shortages in a few specialized areas.Nevertheless, few say that they are permanently increasing their head counts even though business is pretty good.In terms of spending, some sectors that had weak activity in June showed improvement in July.In particular, retailers told us that they saw something of a bounceback; and looking ahead, merchants sound quite bullish about the upcoming holiday season and are planning to build their inventories accordingly.As you know, light vehicle sales also bounced back in July.So far, reports suggest that sales in the first week of August continued to be strong.One manufacturer even told us that they are looking for sales in the month to be about 181/2 million units.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Excuse me--was that for light vehicle or total sales?'}]",yes,no,,,
1033,1039,20040921_95_19,CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.,"""I don't recall that the G-5 said anything of great significance.""","Not quite. Now, if I believed in the efficacy of intervention, which I do not, it would not surprise me to be sitting here and observing the sequence of events that Dino has described this morning. Dino is talking about reductions in volatility and related increases in stability. We're looking at an extraordinarily stable system in which there is a benign response to 75 basis points--or will be. [Laughter] Well, I'm not prone to avoid making forecasts! The question that I think arises is whether, on the basis of history as Karen points out, we can get through these periods without crises, as a developing literature around the world suggests. If there were a way in which we could move the dollar's exchange rate down significantly in a manner that had no secondary effects, would we not want to accomplish that? Would we prefer the euro-dollar relationship at this stage to be at 145 instead of 122? The answer is, ""Yes, we would."" But we don't know how to get there. The general presumption might be that we can get there through intervention, but the experience with interventions suggests otherwise. There are some people here who were at the Fed during the Plaza Accord period. I was not, but I was watching from the outside, and I don't recall a lot of intervention. My recollection was that in February 1985 the dollar and the pound sterling were almost at parity at one point. The situation was like an avalanche waiting to break; and when the G-5 met and released a few statements, the avalanche did break. There wasn't a great deal of intervention, but it appeared to be extraordinarily successful. That struck me in retrospect as sheer luck. I don't recall that the G-5 said anything of great significance. We have a degree of credibility in the Federal Reserve, but I'm not at all certain that if, for example, the Secretary of the Treasury and a number of us started talking in that direction, we would knock the dollar-euro exchange rate down sharply. I hesitate to think of the consequences. If it were easy to do, I would recommend it. The problem here is that there is a wide consensus that this is the time we want the devaluation of the dollar to happen, not later when the economy may be in a weakened structural situation.","[{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""But that's terribly complicated, more by politics, property rights, infrastructure, and those kinds of issues than by anything inherent in this imbalance problem. ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""We've raised an issue of very outsized numbers and the potential for financial instability. But there seems little we can do here in this country on the monetary policy side--possibly a lot we could do on the fiscal policy side but not on the monetary policy side. ""}, {'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'The essential monetary policy contribution, it seems to me, is to keep U.S. inflation low and U.S. output as close to potential at a sustainable rate as possible. This is what you would do in any event. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': ""There have been investment bank articles that I'm sure some of you have seen about how fifty years from now China, India, and Brazil are going to be the dominant economies in the globe.If that capital accumulation is realized, that's domestic demand in the rest of the world.The market economies of the globe can handle all that; there's no reason to think that it can't lead to a quite benign resolution of the circumstances we're now in.But that's terribly complicated, more by politics, property rights, infrastructure, and those kinds of issues than by anything inherent in this imbalance problem.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': ""We've raised an issue of very outsized numbers and the potential for financial instability.But there seems little we can do here in this country on the monetary policy side--possibly a lot we could do on the fiscal policy side but not on the monetary policy side.""}, {'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'The essential monetary policy contribution, it seems to me, is to keep U.S. inflation low and U.S. output as close to potential at a sustainable rate as possible.This is what you would do in any event.'}]",yes,no,,,
1034,1040,20050202_149_4,MR. STERN.,"""In talking to employers, the general impression I get is that they are finding labor availability to be ample, although occasionally they've expressed some concern about the shortage of particular skills.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MS. PIANALTO.', 'text': ""If we stop short in adjusting the fed funds rate now, we could find ourselves losing the ability to continue with the moderate steps that we've had the luxury of implementing so far. Over the past few months, many of us have noted that what we ultimately want is to move the fed funds rate somewhere back to a neutral neighborhood. Given the imprecision of this neutral concept, it's a pretty big neighborhood, and I'd prefer not to be at the lower end of that range. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. PIANALTO.', 'text': ""Nonetheless, when asked what will turn out to be the biggest economic surprise in 2005, the Blue Chip forecasters put higher-than-expected inflation at the top of their list.I'd like to be sure that we don't contribute to a continuation of last year's price level performance by unintentionally setting the fed funds rate at a level that's too low.I do like the fact that we've been able to remove our accommodation at a measured pace in moving the fed funds rate back toward a more comfortable zone.If we stop short in adjusting the fed funds rate now, we could find ourselves losing the ability to continue with the moderate steps that we've had the luxury of implementing so far.Over the past few months, many of us have noted that what we ultimately want is to move the fed funds rate somewhere back to a neutral neighborhood.Given the imprecision of this neutral concept, it's a pretty big neighborhood, and I'd prefer not to be at the lower end of that range.Thank you, Mr. Chairman.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern.'}]",yes,,,,
1035,1041,20050630_366_11,MR. HOENIG.,"""And the demand is incredible.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. GUYNN.', 'text': 'Therefore, I believe that continuing on our recent policy path for the next few meetings would be the best course of action. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Let's take a break for coffee. But owing to what must have been a record question period after the chart show, we're running a little behind schedule, so let's return quickly. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoenig. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. GUYNN.', 'text': ""I have in mind here not only the fiscal deficit and the trade situation, but also the continued troubles in our domestic auto industry and, of course, problems in the airline industry.Both of these latter problem areas may have undesirable spillover effects to financial markets.It also looks as if higher energy prices are here for a while, and this is reflected in futures prices.Higher energy costs will clearly squeeze energy-dependent businesses first, but I think we'll also have uncertain trickle-down effects that can't be good for other industries.I've already expressed my concerns about the unstable path of housing in at least some important local markets.I believe that the least risky policy strategy through these unusual times is to set monetary policy so that it does not contribute to unsustainable activities.Therefore, I believe that continuing on our recent policy path for the next few meetings would be the best course of action.Thank you, Mr. Chairman.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': ""Let's take a break for coffee.But owing to what must have been a record question period after the chart show, we're running a little behind schedule, so let's return quickly.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Hoenig.'}]",yes,yes,utterance,entailment,utterance
1036,1042,20060328_45_2,MS. JOHNSON.,"""So it is certainly true that the capital flows might be exogenous.""","You know, one can approach a general equilibrium process in any number of ways, and finding things that are truly exogenous to that process is very, very difficult. So it is certainly true that the capital flows might be exogenous. However, my guess is they are responding to endogenous economic activity in the United States and the way we are behaving. Trade is certainly endogenous. Saving and investment behavior has some exogenous characteristics and some endogenous characteristics. I take your point, but it is still nonetheless true that, even if the rest of the world wants to invest in the United States, if we saved more, we would not have to borrow just because they wished to lend. And our saving more would have an implication for asset prices and exchange rates and incomes that would lead to a generally improved outcome that would, over time, have a different characteristic than the one that we have observed. So no one exogenous thing is driving everything else, and that statement is as true for the capital flow part of the story as it would be to say that the current account is the driver and everything else is in response.","[{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': 'What do we know about petroleum inventories, both crude and refined products, around the world? The Greenbook, Part 2, has the U.S. data, but what do we know about elsewhere in the world? '}, {'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'I just cannot resist the temptation to make a brief response to your comment, and then I will answer your question. [Laughter] '}, {'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': 'Which is fine. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': 'That is why they are moving the funds.And it is probably better shorthand to say that the current account is financing the capital account inflow as a consequence of where the exchange rate is bid with the capital flowing in.My question relates to a different topic--the oil price situation.You hear a lot of market commentary to the effect that maybe $10 a barrel is in there because of uncertainties about Iran, Nigeria, and elsewhere.When you look at U.S. data, you know that inventory is building--certainly refined products--and clearly you cannot have a $10 plug in there forever if there is no supply disturbance.Eventually the inventories accumulate, and the price will weaken.What do we know about petroleum inventories, both crude and refined products, around the world?The Greenbook, Part 2, has the U.S. data, but what do we know about elsewhere in the world?'}, {'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'I just cannot resist the temptation to make a brief response to your comment, and then I will answer your question.[Laughter]'}, {'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': 'Which is fine.'}]",yes,no,,,
1037,1043,20060920_65_1,MR. FISHER.,"""Well, again, it's just something I'm interested in.""","Well, again, it's just something I'm interested in. It's not unimportant, but I have a more important question. Karen, I noticed last week that the International Monetary Fund forecasts global economic growth, non-U.S. growth, of around 5 percent. Our number is 31/4 percent. What is the difference between us? If we're underestimating, what would be the policy implications?","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOS.', 'text': ""Whether that's a matter of days or weeks or maybe longer, it's hard to put a time dimension on it. I was trying to make the point in my remarks, especially about natural gas, that most people just assume that last week's price movements in natural gas--I believe a very sharp drop occurred on Thursday--were related to the closeout of some of these positions from the one hedge fund, and the presumption is that other hedge funds that made money in energy earlier this year were also getting out of some of these trades. So that would support what you were saying. Now, whether that element has an effect on prices for a week or two weeks is very hard to know, but it probably does have some effect. I think Karen is probably right in the sense that over the long term there are inventory effects, and at some point, those speculative effects get washed out. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. KOS.', 'text': ""I think there may be something to what you suggest, but my own assertion is that it would probably have a short-term effect on prices.Whether that's a matter of days or weeks or maybe longer, it's hard to put a time dimension on it.I was trying to make the point in my remarks, especially about natural gas, that most people just assume that last week's price movements in natural gas--I believe a very sharp drop occurred on Thursday--were related to the closeout of some of these positions from the one hedge fund, and the presumption is that other hedge funds that made money in energy earlier this year were also getting out of some of these trades.So that would support what you were saying.Now, whether that element has an effect on prices for a week or two weeks is very hard to know, but it probably does have some effect.I think Karen is probably right in the sense that over the long term there are inventory effects, and at some point, those speculative effects get washed out.""}]",yes,no,,,
1038,1044,20070918_66_4,MR. PLOSSER.,"""At the same time, I say to myself, ""Well, you know, now it is about at the level that the Board has been forecasting all along.""""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': 'There is not a lot of predictive content that way. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PLOSSER.', 'text': ""Yes. That's really my point. ""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': ""Therefore, in some sense, to be consistent with the forecast, we would have to continue to expect that consumers are going to be worried and more downbeat. Again, while I would say that's obviously a significant source of uncertainty, I don't think that's necessarily unreasonable in an environment where there will continue to be a lot of bad news and where the bad news is compounded with a weakening labor market and some things that could lead to some extra-model type of restraint. ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': 'That would raise the forecast, as I said.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. PLOSSER.', 'text': 'My impression from studies and empirical work is that consumer sentiment usually is a much bigger coincident indicator than it is a forecasting tool.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': ""Yes, it helps for forecasting near-term consumption.But you are right, I don't think the low level of consumer sentiment that we have seen through the middle of September is telling us a great deal about where consumer spending will be early next year.There is not a lot of predictive content that way.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. PLOSSER.', 'text': ""Yes.That's really my point.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': ""Therefore, in some sense, to be consistent with the forecast, we would have to continue to expect that consumers are going to be worried and more downbeat.Again, while I would say that's obviously a significant source of uncertainty, I don't think that's necessarily unreasonable in an environment where there will continue to be a lot of bad news and where the bad news is compounded with a weakening labor market and some things that could lead to some extra-model type of restraint.""}]",no,,,,
1039,1045,20080318_69_7,MR. PLOSSER.,"""Uncertainty about valuations seems to be the root cause of liquidity problems.""","Well, I've been supportive of those, and I want to compliment the New York Desk and the people who have worked on this because I think they are very innovative. I'm not clear how successful these instruments will be, and they are not without their own set of risks of creating some potentially dangerous expectations regarding future Fed behavior, which eventually we must deal with. But I think they are worth trying as long as they are removed in due course. I can also support a further narrowing of the spread between the funds rate and the primary credit rate, although I would eventually like to see a review of what we think that spread ought to be in more normal times and what our exit strategy might be like as we move toward that. Giving some thought down the road to that I think would be helpful. So while I believe that we have appropriately reduced the funds rate in response to the worsening economic outlook for the real economy, I am less convinced that reducing the funds rate further will do much to stem the liquidity problems in the market or to lower risk premiums. Uncertainty about valuations seems to be the root cause of liquidity problems. The price discovery process needs to continue, and it may take a while. In this case, I think the Fed needs to continue to do its job to reassure markets that it will act as an appropriate lender of last resort, but we must be careful that a lower funds rate, if that is the path we take, doesn't become just a form of forbearance that contributes to delaying the necessary writedowns and the price discovery process itself. Yes, the financial markets can have spillovers to the real economy to which the Fed needs to react with monetary policy, and I believe we have. At the same time, we need to keep focused on both parts of our mandate. We put our credibility at risk if we do not do so, and this would be a cause for severe problems later when we may need to act to regain it. We will have to face the fact at some point that we will disappoint the markets with their ever-increasing forecast of a lower funds rate. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.","[{'speaker': 'MR. PLOSSER.', 'text': ""Fourth and finally, like everyone else, I am very concerned about the developments in the financial markets. I've been supportive of the steps we've taken to enhance liquidity in the markets through the TAF, the TSLF, the PDCF, or whatever. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'AEIOU. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': ""Don't say IOU. [Laughter] ""}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. PLOSSER.', 'text': ""For example, the real funds rate is now minus 1 percent, which is below the more pessimistic Greenbook-consistent r* of minus 0.5 percent given in the Bluebook, if you measure the real rate as the nominal funds rate minus the Greenbook's one-quarter-ahead forecasted headline PCE.The Greenbook suggests that the real funds rate can be negative over the next two years and inflation will continue to decelerate as upside inflation pressure is offset by greater slack in product and labor markets.I am skeptical.This outcome is predicated on inflation expectations remaining well anchored despite aggressive and persistent easing for a sustained period of time.Given the current fragility of inflation expectations, this seems very unlikely to me.The alternative Greenbook scenario with more inflation pressure from oil and imported goods suggests a steeper policy path and higher inflation by 2010-12.Fourth and finally, like everyone else, I am very concerned about the developments in the financial markets.I've been supportive of the steps we've taken to enhance liquidity in the markets through the TAF, the TSLF, the PDCF, or whatever.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'AEIOU.'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': ""Don't say IOU.[Laughter]""}]",yes,no,,,
1040,1046,20080430_281_6,MR. PLOSSER.,"""I just wondered if there are differences in their approaches as to how often they interact in the marketplace.""",,"[{'speaker': 'MR. KROSZNER.', 'text': 'For sure, but just thinking about whether there are other things that we could do related to stigma might be worthwhile in this context. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. MADIGAN.', 'text': ""Absolutely, we agree. Of course, when the Board adopted the primary credit program in 2003, we gave a lot of thought before that and did considerable work after that to try to minimize the amount of stigma by trying to make very clear to banks that in our view use of the window didn't entail stigma. But the fundamental problem still is that banks are concerned that their use of the window may be detected in the market one way or another, especially in a period of financial stress, and that is just not a cost worth incurring. ""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Plosser, did you have a question? '}]","[{'speaker': 'MR. MADIGAN.', 'text': ""I don't remember the exact legal wording, but at least within the current law, to back away from that might be difficult.Of course, you could conceivably pursue a change in the law, but I think we would want to think about the pros and cons of that before you went in that direction.""}, {'speaker': 'MR. KROSZNER.', 'text': 'For sure, but just thinking about whether there are other things that we could do related to stigma might be worthwhile in this context.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MADIGAN.', 'text': ""Absolutely, we agree.Of course, when the Board adopted the primary credit program in 2003, we gave a lot of thought before that and did considerable work after that to try to minimize the amount of stigma by trying to make very clear to banks that in our view use of the window didn't entail stigma.But the fundamental problem still is that banks are concerned that their use of the window may be detected in the market one way or another, especially in a period of financial stress, and that is just not a cost worth incurring.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'President Plosser, did you have a question?'}]",no,,,,
1041,1047,20080430_297_14,MR. BULLARD.,"""The corridor would be narrow.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. This is a proposal for study. The timeline seems fine to me. The study period is pretty important in this case because it is not clear to me which option is best, and so I think maybe we should keep more of the options on the table. One question that I have is, To what extent are current reserve requirements actually binding for depository institutions? There is a past study by the St. Louis staff--Dick Anderson and Bob Rasche--suggesting that, by and large, existing reserve requirements are not binding. To me that calls into question whether objective 1 for this study group is really appropriate. Dead weight losses make sense to me only if there is a binding reserve requirement. In that regard, I'd like to endorse President Yellen's comment, which I thought was right on target, about whether you are going to make up for lost revenue from somewhere else and how distortionary that would be. There is a bit of political risk here that, if this starts to get painted as a handout to banks, maybe it wouldn't serve us well. I would like to see more emphasis on option 3, which based on the discussion seems to be not too bad a system. That is the Canadian system. That is a tested system in an economy that is not too different from our own--certainly, an economy that is closely integrated with this one. The corridor would be narrow. There might be more volatility within that corridor, but you still seem to get pretty good results. I know they have a small number of banks, but it seems to me with today's technology you might be able to get a good read even for a large economy. I would like to see it kept in the mix here. They have had lots of success and very low administrative burden, if that is what you are worried about. I am perhaps not so familiar with options 2 and 5, which are the favored options in this discussion. But I am concerned about the language of voluntary balance targets, which seem to be maybe not that voluntary. It seems to me to create a risk that the systems are really not as market-oriented as I would like to see or that they could be manipulated by market participants, particularly in a time of stress. Those are some of the concerns I had about this.","[{'speaker': 'MS. YELLEN.', 'text': 'Also, I would just say on the question of options 2 and 5 versus options 3 and 4, an advantage that the paper attaches to having voluntary targets is the ability to moderate the volatility in the federal funds rate. So it does seem to me that--I understand it may be difficult--the possibility of intervening multiple times during the day as an alternative, if it were possible to change the procedures so that there could be multiple interventions to reduce volatility, would mean that 3 and 4 could be on the table, and there might be less burden associated with those. So I think that possibility deserves at least careful consideration. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Thank you. President Bullard. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. YELLEN.', 'text': ""I would see it as an advantage of paying interest on reserves.If you are discussing this right now with the Congress and it is much discussed in the press, I think it is kind of odd to come out with a paper that doesn't even mention it.Maybe there are disadvantages and not just advantages.But it seems to me it should be there.Also, I would just say on the question of options 2 and 5 versus options 3 and 4, an advantage that the paper attaches to having voluntary targets is the ability to moderate the volatility in the federal funds rate.So it does seem to me that--I understand it may be difficult--the possibility of intervening multiple times during the day as an alternative, if it were possible to change the procedures so that there could be multiple interventions to reduce volatility, would mean that 3 and 4 could be on the table, and there might be less burden associated with those.So I think that possibility deserves at least careful consideration.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Thank you.President Bullard.'}]",yes,no,,,
1042,1048,20080625_147_18,MR. BULLARD.,"""Surely by now few market participants would be surprised to encounter the failure of certain institutions.""","Thank you, Mr. Chairman. U.S. economic data have been stronger than expected during the intermeeting period. The earlier, very aggressive moves in January and March taken by the FOMC were viewed in part as insurance against the possibility of a very serious downturn brought on by financial market turmoil. That very serious downturn has not materialized. Tail risk has diminished significantly. This means that this Committee has put too much economic stimulus on the table and must think about ways to remove it going forward. Failure to do so will create a significant inflation problem on top of problems in housing and financial markets. Slack might be helpful, as mentioned by Governor Kohn, but those effects are small compared with expectations effects. I think it is too early to tighten at this meeting. Therefore, I am supporting alternative B with the language proposed by President Plosser. But the Committee has to think carefully about how and when to embark on a path for interest rates that will set us up to achieve price stability in a reasonable time frame. My sense is that this will require more-aggressive tightening of policy than currently envisioned in staff simulations. Financial market problems have been described here as a slow burn, and I think that may well be an apt description. Many firms in this sector took on too much risk and, in retrospect, had poor business models. I expect that this will take a long time to unwind. Despite this, the systemic risk component of the situation has diminished considerably. Systemic risk is in part a function of the degree of surprise in the failure of a financial institution that was perceived to be in good health. Surely by now few market participants would be surprised to encounter the failure of certain institutions. Failures, should they occur, can be handled in an orderly way. Certain investors would lose out in such an event, to be sure, but my sense is that the panic element that would be associated with systemic risk would not be present. I believe that we should start to downweight systemic risk concerns substantially going forward because it is no longer credible to say that market participants are surprised to learn of problems at certain financial institutions. Thank you.","[{'speaker': 'MS. PIANALTO.', 'text': 'But while I do believe that the next policy action will be a rate hike, the potential for the recovery to sputter makes me cautious about embarking on an upward trajectory for the fed funds rate just yet. I believe that the language in alternative B conveys the right sense of direction for the fed funds rate path, with the right amount of caution. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Thank you. President Bullard. '}]","[{'speaker': 'MS. PIANALTO.', 'text': ""Nevertheless, I am somewhat more comfortable with the prospects for economic activity than I was in April.At the same time, I can't easily dismiss the recent behavior of energy and some other commodity prices.I found the Bluebook's supplemental analysis on oil prices, inflation expectations, and monetary policy to be very useful in thinking about the dilemma that we face.The fact that oil prices have risen so sharply and have been so persistent highlights the risks surrounding the downward projection that I have for core inflation.Without some evidence of less inflationary pressure I don't believe that the fed funds rate can be kept at its current level for very long.But while I do believe that the next policy action will be a rate hike, the potential for the recovery to sputter makes me cautious about embarking on an upward trajectory for the fed funds rate just yet.I believe that the language in alternative B conveys the right sense of direction for the fed funds rate path, with the right amount of caution.Thank you, Mr. Chairman.""}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Thank you.President Bullard.'}]",yes,no,,,
1043,1049,20080805_5_2,MR. DUDLEY.,"""That is a big question.""",Okay. That is a big question. [Laughter],"[{'speaker': 'MR. EVANS.', 'text': ""We are 12 months in. Isn't this likely to take 12 more months or longer? Financial institutions have a lot to digest. What do you think financial institutions and markets have to do to signal a return to acceptable functionality? What are we looking for, and what changes in fundamentals are likely to occur that would deliver sustainable liquidity improvements? ""}]","[{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Thank you very much, Bill.Any questions for Bill?President Evans.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. EVANS.', 'text': 'Thank you, Mr. Chairman.Bill, at our recent intermeeting call, I wasn\'t expecting the characterization of the financial stresses to sort of backtrack to the point that it feels like March.Maybe somebody said it was as scary as March.I have noticed in a lot of our speeches that many have noted that financial conditions have not returned to normal, and I have always kind of wondered what ""normal"" would be.With hundreds of billions of dollars of losses at major financial institutions, I guess I am wondering whether we can reasonably expect that this distress and adjustment will be alleviated over some reasonably short period of time.We are 12 months in.Isn\'t this likely to take 12 more months or longer?Financial institutions have a lot to digest.What do you think financial institutions and markets have to do to signal a return to acceptable functionality?What are we looking for, and what changes in fundamentals are likely to occur that would deliver sustainable liquidity improvements?'}]",yes,no,,,