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0 | 0 | 19811222_189_9 | MR. TRUMAN. | "I might comment that Japan in particular seems to be a serious problem." | The picture is broadly similar to what we have seen here in the sense that the economies abroad have been growing, although it has been small positive growth. It has been quite modest on average over the last several quarters. There have been some signs of a bottoming out: There were increases in the United Kingdom aft... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "I don't want to [catch] you unawares, Mr. Truman, but it might be appropriate for you to say just a word about what is going on abroad. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'Okay. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. SCHULTZ.', 'text': 'To give you a little more time, would you like to have... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'We were talking about that this morning, and I would be inclined to think that there might be a little larger decline and perhaps a good deal larger decline than the staff has in its forecast.But again, for every inch that you give there, the less pressure there is on financial mark... | yes | no | null | null | null |
1 | 1 | 19911001_128_5 | MR. KELLEY. | "But I think the staff and everyone else would agree that the question is very much outstanding." | Mr. Chairman, it seems to me that what we've all been talking about this morning and what is at the front of all our minds is a very straightforward question with a very ambiguous answer. Is this economy faltering or is it going to falter? If we knew the answer to that question, we'd have a pretty good idea of what to ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': "I just don't think we'd be good enough to cash in that insurance, or however you want to describe it, when we need to. And in that connection, I think there's a good deal of monetary stimulus in train, as Wayne pointed out--whether you look at what has happened to interest rates and... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': "So, the concept that we can somehow buy more insurance bothers me.I just don't think we'd be good enough to cash in that insurance, or however you want to describe it, when we need to.And in that connection, I think there's a good deal of monetary stimulus in train, as Wayne pointed... | yes | yes | utterance | contradiction | utterance |
2 | 2 | 19900327_116_3 | MR. SYRON. | "What would your answer be?" | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': "We've raised [our forecast of] prices ex food and energy this year; they change Q4 to Q4 by .2 percent, a fairly modest change. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': "The second question I have is that I'm rather struck by the change in the [unintelligible] of the Greenbook. Over the... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': "But the cumulative effect of the last few months of data in this overall category--even though there are special things like transit charges and other items that seem to be one-time events--has been that the trend is a little higher.It just seems to fit with the general circumstances... | no | null | null | null | null |
3 | 3 | 19830713_312_1 | MR. MORRIS. | "The demand for credit is directly related to the level of interest rates." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Lower them. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': "I don't think you would. "}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': "I don't think you people know what the relationship of the credit aggregate is to GNP, quite frankly. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'I think we know a lot mor... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': "Well, I think one has to make a judgment as to whether a 4-1/2 percent real growth rate would be excessive for '84 or whether we should allow perhaps for a little less favorable result on inflation than we're forecasting."}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Well, I have a little ... | no | null | null | null | null |
4 | 4 | 19830329_822_1 | MR. GUFFEY. | "You have discarded the first parenthetical sentence in alternative II and you have tried to incorporate an additional sentence." | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'The Committee expects that M1 growth at an annual rate of about 6 to 7 percent would be consistent with its objectives for the broader aggregates. Lesser restraint would be acceptable in the context of more pronounced slowing of growth in the monetary aggregates relative to th... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Let me just repeat where I am on the language: "For the short run, the Committee seeks to maintain generally the existing degree of restraint on reserve positions, anticipating that would consistent with a slowing from March to June in growth of M2 and M3 to annual rates of ab... | no | null | null | null | null |
5 | 5 | 19820518_275_17 | MR. PARTEE. | "So, I would take "B" for this time but reserve" | Well, I think we do need to review the long-range targets. A very, very large proportion of the increase in M1 since the beginning of the year has been in NOW accounts. I think it's 85 percent. I had that number someplace but I can't find it now; but it's a very large proportion. That is suggestive of the possibility o... | [{'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': 'I am concerned that we not go too far beyond "B" toward "A" because we don\'t yet know what will happen as we get into the second half of the year, and I wouldn\'t want us to give up all our leeway as we look ahead to the second half of the year. My feeling is that we should go genera... | [{'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': 'And given the uncertainty that we\'re facing presently with the Drysdale situation, I\'d perhaps just widen the band on both ends.I always like to do that.And a borrowing assumption of $800 million to $1 billion, or somewhere in there, sounds reasonable to me.I am concerned that we no... | yes | yes | utterance | contradiction | utterance |
6 | 6 | 19890516_298_1 | MR. KOHN. | "Well, I interpreted alternative B as maintaining about the same funds rate level as we've been running over the last intermeeting period." | Well, I interpreted alternative B as maintaining about the same funds rate level as we've been running over the last intermeeting period. If what you're referencing is what might happen to market rates I agree, as we stated in the Bluebook, that the markets now have an easing built into that. It's quite possible that i... | [{'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': "--in the early part of the maintenance period, which is unusual, and partly it's the seasonal borrowing that's rising. In the past I've argued that the seasonal borrowing doesn't affect things very much but I think the level of adjustment borrowing is so low that the increase in seaso... | [{'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': "On the technical adjustment of the borrowing target from $500 to $600 million for alternative B, what do you think the fed funds rate would be if you didn't make that adjustment and you stuck with the $500 million that we currently have?"}, {'speaker': 'MR. KOHN.', 'text': 'I think f... | yes | yes | sentence | null | null |
7 | 7 | 20070131_392_24 | MR. POOLE. | "With the analysis of why the forecast has moved we could provide some insight into how our thinking has evolved as a consequence of new information." | null | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': "But you're not suggesting that we try to aggregate or ask the staff to aggregate our own uncertainties that we convey with our own individual forecasts, right? "}, {'speaker': 'MS. YELLEN.', 'text': 'No, I think that would not be a very useful procedure. '}, {'speaker': ... | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': 'I interpret you as saying that you infer a central tendency from this process you outlined.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. YELLEN.', 'text': 'With respect to the story?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': 'You discern a central tendency of the Committee about our view... | no | null | null | null | null |
8 | 8 | 19860923_273_5 | MS. SEGER. | "I think the give-back will show up, particularly in the first quarter." | I have just a couple of comments since I have heard just about everything said that I was going to say. In general, I am probably a hair more pessimistic than the staff, primarily because when I look at the auto industry I just have a feeling that we are going to give back more next year than the staff is assuming. I a... | [{'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': 'Overall, I think it is a very satisfactory performance with fewer imbalances than we have had in the past. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "I don't know about those wage increases; those wage increases are low but so is productivity. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text... | [{'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': "I think our exports won't increase very rapidly but at least the erosion in GNP due to imports will tend to stop.So, overall, the export sector will tilt a bit more in our favor and that also reduces some of those imbalances.On the inflation front, I am amazed by the good news that ... | yes | no | null | null | null |
9 | 9 | 19960924_105_7 | MR. GUYNN. | "Our previous forecast plainly suggested the need for such a slowdown." | Mr. Chairman, I could support a decision not to change policy at this time, and if I had a vote this year, I would vote "yes." As Governor Rivlin noted in the earlier go-around, we can take great pride in the low inflation and the strong real activity that we have achieved. At previous meetings, I was among those who a... | [{'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'I, like President Moskow, was fascinated by the productivity discussion and would like to see that analysis. If I were voting, I would say that I prefer to move now, but I would accept your recommendation. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Governor Phillips. '}, {'spea... | [{'speaker': 'MS. RIVLIN.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I strongly support your recommendation both with respect to current monetary policy and with respect to asymmetry.I am intrigued, as others I think are, by your disaggregation of the productivity data because it provides us with at least a partial explanation of the my... | yes | yes | utterance | entailment | utterance |
10 | 10 | 19971112_105_3 | MR. PARRY. | "In particular, if this path were embarked upon somewhat sooner than is assumed in the Greenbook forecast, would you modify the response of the economy in light of the possibility that it might generate some financial consequences that are not incorporated in the forecast?" | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'Cash flow in the nonfinancial corporate sector is not growing as fast as capital expenditure, and we are seeing a widening of the financing gap. As we go out through the forecast period, the financing gap gets to be sizable enough that at least we would not think that firms will be s... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'The year 1999 is where we see profits really declining.Indeed, that is one of the reasons we have only the mildest of declines in the stock market through the first part of next year.Year-on-year comparisons of earnings in our forecast will still look quite good.Certainly if there is... | no | null | null | null | null |
11 | 11 | 20010320_147_8 | MR. MEYER. | "It would leave market participants speculating day in and day out about whether we were in or about to hold an emergency meeting to cut the target funds rate." | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. My position is very similar to that of Presidents Minehan, Broaddus, and Guynn, a little stronger than President Moskow's. I support your recommendation for a 50 basis point decline in the target funds rate today, along with a statement that the risks remain unbalanced toward economic weakness.... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': "Even with the 50 basis point easing, the risks remain tilted toward weakness. I am uneasy about the language regarding an intermeeting move. I'm not sure exactly what we gain from it or how it helps us in moving forward. Perhaps we could have more discussion on that. "}, {'speaker':... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MOSKOW.', 'text': "I meant toward the green, since that's the way I usually play golf![Laughter] But, seriously, I thought your statement was excellent.I do think we need to ease.I believe we should be measured in our actions, as I said in my comments and as Cathy Minehan mentioned as well.In my view,... | yes | yes | sentence | null | utterance |
12 | 12 | 19990203_233_1 | MR. PARRY. | "I agree with much of what has been said." | I agree with much of what has been said. Just to add to a point that Cathy Minehan was making: This does seem to present us, as a Committee, with an opportunity to discuss in the testimony what we think the role of the aggregates should be. We have spent a great deal of time over the years talking about this issue, and... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'It seems to me one of the advantages of that would be that it would help to signal the undesirable consequences of not taking policy actions in one direction or the other that we need to take. It might put us in a position to be more proactive in presenting our policy stance and p... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': 'I would suggest one other change.One of the key parts in the report is the summary of the individual projections we provide, which are encapsulated in the central tendency projections in the report.To clarify those, it would be helpful if we all made them contingent on a uniform a... | yes | no | null | null | null |
13 | 13 | 20031028_194_1 | MR. REINHART. | "The first question is, Is there any clear preference as to the basic structure of the assessment of the outlook?" | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': 'I could set aside time on the December 9 agenda after the policy decision to consider the matter, and you could decide perhaps not to be bound by the 2:00 p.m. deadline. I could arrange a dinner meeting on December 8, the night before that meeting. Third, this could be the subject... | [{'speaker': 'MR. REINHART.', 'text': 'If so, there is a question of sequencing.Do you want to grapple with modifying the existing language to express a new tilt, or would such a transition be an appropriate time to adopt a new structure?Fourth, when do you want to talk about this next?Looking at the calendar, there ar... | no | null | null | null | null |
14 | 14 | 20070509_202_3 | MS. MINEHAN. | "There might be other ways--for example, alternative scenarios, qualitative discussions of risk, or that sort of thing--that seem to some of us preferable." | I take Vice Chairman Geithner's comments very seriously, but I want to raise just one thing because I would like it to get into the survey. We were offered one way of reflecting uncertainty regarding forecasts. There might be other ways--for example, alternative scenarios, qualitative discussions of risk, or that sort ... | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': "I don't know what we are planning for June--June is a two-day meeting, right? "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'Right. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': "So I don't think we can have these conversations before the next round. Let's make sure... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MISHKIN.', 'text': 'So there is a question mark about how to think about that in the future because it is the gray area that makes this exercise more difficult.We do need to think about it.That\'s what I struggled with when I sat down and asked, "How am I actually going to do this?"'}, {'speaker': 'CH... | no | null | null | null | null |
15 | 15 | 20020130_187_11 | MR. STERN. | "And I would say that the tourism business has been adversely affected by the weather." | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The latest readings on the District economy are consistent with what we've been seeing and saying about the business news more broadly. Consumer spending has been strong, particularly for home furnishings, electronics, autos, and at bars and restaurants. Housing had a very good year in 2001. Co... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MCTEER.', 'text': "We tend to agree with their views, and we think the staff projection is about right. If anything, I'm a bit more optimistic. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if the fourth-quarter GDP number came in as a small positive! [Laughter] "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'P... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MCTEER.', 'text': "Most of the declines in sales tax revenue were concentrated in Dallas and its nearby suburbs, where the telecom corridor is located.For me the significant development in the national economy is that data that had been uniformly bad have recently turned mixed and, in fact, most recen... | yes | no | null | null | null |
16 | 16 | 19790522_135_5 | MR. COLDWELL. | "It seems to me that our current posture has some elements of restraint but those elements of restraint are coming in the housing field, largely in the usury ceilings and the thrift flows, which of course are the traditional ways." | Mr. Chairman, I am delighted to see the slowing in the economy. I've been hoping for it for a year. I think we're getting some reduction in the level of activity and I hope it continues for a while longer. I think we need to look at our basic objectives here because we have a problem of whether we are aiming to maintai... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': "A modest easing in rates now, although coming at a time when inflation is very high, could very well forestall a need for very sharp declines in interest rates later on. So I think the moment is now. I'm sure I won't get much support for this proposition, but I feel very strongly th... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': "If we are seeking a soft landing, then I think we've got to move monetary policy now in a less restrictive direction.If we're going to recognize the lags of monetary policy, we have to do what we've never done before and that is to move before the evidence is overwhelming that we ar... | yes | yes | utterance | null | null |
17 | 17 | 19970702_315_4 | MS. PHILLIPS. | "Should we tighten in August or early fall, we would look rather foolish if we had just removed the bias." | I agree with "B" asymmetric. Since inflation and pipeline inflation look pretty benign, it seems to me that there is time to see whether the economy will slow to a more sustainable growth rate. With regard to symmetry, since there is more likelihood that we are going to tighten than to ease and since we adopted an asym... | [{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'But with strong continuing forward momentum in economic activity, tight labor markets, and indications of incipient if not fully realized asset bubbles, I think there are real danger signs. You have mentioned, Mr. Chairman, the need over the near term to think about tightening mone... | [{'speaker': 'MS. MINEHAN.', 'text': 'Everyone who can pick up a hammer becomes a construction worker, and all of this feeds back into the economy in the form of increasing pressures and rising prices.I think the boom is inevitably followed by a bust and the anecdotal evidence suggests the bigger the boom, the bigger t... | yes | yes | sentence | entailment | utterance |
18 | 18 | 19830209_928_1 | MR. WALLICH. | "It's on page 4." | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Unless anybody has a further question, we ought to vote. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'I find confusing the reference to credit flows. Is that specifically what we mention as total-- '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Where are you? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. M... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Let me go back after all this discussion [to the numbers].We put in tentatively: 7 to 10 percent for M2, with a February-March base; 6-1/2 to 9-1/2 percent for M3; 4 to 8 percent for Ml, with a note at the end of that.I take itwe\'re using "estimated" instead of "established" ... | no | null | null | null | null |
19 | 19 | 19950201_530_4 | MR. LINDSEY. | "The document came from Treasury International Affairs." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'They existed--and that was the problem! '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': "Could I clarify something? What Governor Mancera said just a couple of hours ago was that, if before the end of the day today he is informed that we the United States are willing to make the... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I think we will find, after Governor Mancera reported all his money supply and reserve numbers in the Wall Street Journal today, that it is going be difficult for them to say the drawings do not exist.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'That is right.'}, {'speaker': 'MR... | no | null | null | null | null |
20 | 20 | 19851217_653_1 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "Leave it "might" and "would"?" | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': '"...the existing degree of pressure on reserve positions. This action is expected to be consistent with growth in M2 and M3 over the period from November to March at an annual rate of 6 to 8 percent; while the behavior of M1 continues to be subject to unusual uncertainty, grow... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'The difference is the perception.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Oh!But you are probably right; the "appraisals" now refers to all of them.It might be better to take out "appraisals of" to avoid distinctions between appraisals of the strength of the business expansion ... | no | null | null | null | null |
21 | 21 | 20070131_45_2 | MR. LACKER. | "So the presumption would be that such information gets taken on board and reflected in the prices of new mortgage-backed securities and that it would translate into higher credit spreads at the retail level." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': "It's quite a bit smaller share of total outstanding because the average life of the subprime mortgage loan, I'm told, is only two or three years. In other words, if your credit quality improves, you will refinance out of your subprime mortgage into a higher quality mortgage. So orig... | [{'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': "One reason that is hard to imagine happening to a powerful degree in the end is that the speculators really don't want to take actual delivery of the physical commodity, and so the price really should clear in the spot market on what's happening to underlying supply and demand.But t... | no | null | null | null | null |
22 | 22 | 19810203_554_1 | MR. GRAMLEY. | "On the basis of cost to banks alone." | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "[Secretary's note: Messrs. Black, Ford, Roos and Winn raised their hands.] "}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'And the next question is who is not at least strongly-- '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "Well, let's have the other extreme now. Who feels strongly t... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': "As I admitted to Lyle a while ago, I think these large gyrations we've had in interest rates have been very upsetting to businessmen who are trying to plan, and I would like to see those gyrations eliminated.The best way to eliminate them is to do what we've said we wanted to do: Get... | no | null | null | null | null |
23 | 23 | 19821221_761_2 | MS. TEETERS. | "I would guess we ought to go to $175 million [rather than] $200 million, but I don't think it makes a lot of difference." | Mr. Chairman, I can accept Tony's formulation of this. I would guess we ought to go to $175 million [rather than] $200 million, but I don't think it makes a lot of difference. I also find myself a little [uneasy], given the length of time until the next meeting and all these uncertainties. I'm not necessarily suggestin... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'I was thinking more of, say, some of these banks who at least partially lost their access to the Euro-markets. They might have to come back in for a rather substantial loan. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "Well, it's easier at that point to adjust for it, but in the in... | [{'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': "Where it's a big identifiable borrowing, we make an allowance for that."}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': "Certainly if it's over a sustained period, it would be [counted with] nonborrowed reserves.If it's a bank that just happens to be at the end of the queue and comes in ... | yes | yes | sentence | null | null |
24 | 24 | 20080318_3_2 | CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. | "Vice Chairman." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': 'Most dealers expect either a cut of 75 or 100 basis points: There are eight for 100 basis points, ten for 75 basis points, and two for 50 basis points. This compares with the slightly more than 100 basis points built into the April federal funds rate contract (yesterday the April fe... | [{'speaker': 'MR. DUDLEY.', 'text': "The yields implied by Eurodollar futures prices have also shifted sharply lower, as shown in exhibit 18.The trough in yields is expected to be reached in late summer or early fall.Our formal survey of primary dealers, which we normally show you, was conducted more than a week ago, a... | no | null | null | null | null |
25 | 25 | 19870211_197_1 | VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN. | "And some worry, especially in the Japanese case, that they are really taking a terrible beating in their manufacturing sector now." | And some worry, especially in the Japanese case, that they are really taking a terrible beating in their manufacturing sector now. So, as I said, I guess today I am a little influenced by that. | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'Well, they start with the government forecast which is 3 percent plus--say, 3-1/2 to 4 percent. Then they talk a little about the Bank of Japan forecast and shave a half point off that. Then they start wriggling in terms of their own forecasts, so with the body english, ... | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'As a number of people said, the trade sector is obviously crucial.And frankly, I blow hot and cold on that.Sometimes I think we have a good shot at doing better than the forecast and other times I say "no way".I guess right now I am, to some extent, in the cold camp as o... | no | null | null | null | null |
26 | 26 | 19870211_349_4 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "So we're going to be very vague anyway." | Well, I don't interpret it that way. Given all the difficulties of explaining this, that is not my feeling. Unfortunately, the fact of the matter is that we are in a situation where we can't interpret M1 in terms of anything like an appropriate growth rate. So we're going to be very vague anyway. | [{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': "That's why I like variant I without a number. "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "You have expressed my gut feeling. I think that we send a better substantive message without a number--and we don't know what the number means anyway. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': "... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "But 7 to 13 percent doesn't give that message to me."}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'I think something like variant I in combination with ratcheting down M2 and M3 at least gives that signal.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'I agree with that.'}, {'speaker': 'MR.... | no | null | null | null | null |
27 | 27 | 19821221_726_2 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "This states it the other way around, resulting from the introduction of the new money market accounts." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': '"From market instruments." We\'re not talking from M1 up to M2. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'From market instruments and large CDs. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. CORRIGAN.', 'text': "That's why I think that sentence has to be limited to M2. "}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMA... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We say explicitly--Steve just gave me some language: "Allowing for some shifting into broader aggregates, particularly M2, resulting from the introduction of the new money market accounts."So, we\'ve explicitly said that 9-1/2 percent allows for someand then we keep something ... | no | null | null | null | null |
28 | 28 | 19861216_354_5 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "The trouble is that this is getting too complicated, obviously." | I think we could have a discussion of Ml. Maybe we could mention studies and all of this other stuff. I didn't look at it very carefully, but I think we could say that we are not ignoring it, but that we find ourselves unable just to give a simple range that encompasses all the significance of it. [How we view] it woul... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'That might be more useful than anything else. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': "I didn't mean literally within the box. All I meant to say is that I thought it should not be buried on page 28 of the testimony--that it should get some prominence. "}, {'speaker... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "But if other things happened and interest rates went up, we would expect M1 to run low, and the public shouldn't be surprised by that; if interest rates were declining and the economy was soft, we would expect M1 to run high.If inflation is down, we wouldn't be disturbed by a ... | yes | null | null | null | null |
29 | 29 | 19960326_52_3 | MR. HOENIG. | "Moreover, all seven states in the District added jobs at a fairly robust pace in January." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'It is difficult to find a builder in the District who is not feeling that. I think low mortgage rates and the perception that mortgage rates have bottomed out have been a stimulus. But at least for the Philadelphia District, with existing home sales much slower than new home sales a... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'What has impressed me most in recent weeks is the surge in new housing sales in the District.For the better builders, this surge has been apparent for a couple of months.Even in the dead of winter, the traffic into showrooms was very high, and people were more than looking; they wer... | no | null | null | null | null |
30 | 30 | 20081029_202_3 | MR. LOCKHART. | "The sentiment of directors and their contacts has turned decidedly more pessimistic regarding current economic conditions and the near-term outlook." | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': "Okay. Why don't we take fifteen minutes for coffee, and then we'll do part of the go-round. Thank you. "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': "Well, why don't we turn part of our dinner period to the go-round. Let's start with President Lockhart. "}] | [{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': 'Obviously, it is very difficult to separate things that might actually have changed the transmission channel of monetary policy from just big financial developments that have offset the beneficial effects of easing policy.We built an assumption into the baseline forecast that GDP ... | no | null | null | null | null |
31 | 31 | 19811222_502_1 | MR. STERNLIGHT. | "The discount rate becomes a kind of anchor around which the funds rate clusters once there's enough borrowing to make that discount rate meaningful." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': "We've assumed in the Bluebook that if the path were $450 million and it was successfully hit, probably there would be some little upward tick in the funds rate, but maybe not a lot. I would assume that $350 million at a minimum would probably avoid that; whether that would cause th... | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': "Well, I think there's a difference of view among the technical people as to whether initial borrowing of $350 million means a lower rate or the same rate as we've been seeing lately.Borrowings have been running on average less than the $450 million.We might ask both Steve... | no | null | null | null | null |
32 | 32 | 20061025_32_5 | MR. PLOSSER. | "That distinction is part of it, as is whether the way you estimate the cyclical component of employment and so forth affects the forecast and whether it adjusts very quickly or very slowly in shaping the picture going forward, particularly into 2007 and 2008." | null | [{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': "But it would be a real gamble on our part to conclude that it wasn't, at least in some important sense, due to the administrative measures that they took. I don't think the officials are so unable to have a consequence with their policy tools, such as they are, if they are really d... | [{'speaker': 'MS. JOHNSON.', 'text': "From our attempt to turn the series into quarter-to-quarter changes rather than the data that are announced, we certainly had higher numbers for the first half of this year than were generally talked about.The released numbers were tens and so forth, and we had twelves.Similarly, a... | no | null | null | null | null |
33 | 33 | 20080625_172_1 | CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. | "I think the Vice Chairman raises an interaction that I hadn't thought of, which is that our facilities are existing under the premise of unusual and exigent circumstances, and we don't really want to undercut that." | I think the Vice Chairman raises an interaction that I hadn't thought of, which is that our facilities are existing under the premise of unusual and exigent circumstances, and we don't really want to undercut that. President Fisher. | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.', 'text': 'They are in place today. They are exceptionally significant in terms of a change in policy. They are there because we think they are playing an important role in helping facilitate the necessary process of repairing markets et cetera. If we were going to take them back t... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.', 'text': 'But if others would like to express a view, I think yet a third thing that we could do would be to say, "Financial markets, though somewhat improved recently, remain under considerable stress."That might be a way to address it.Does anyone have any thoughts on that word?Any co... | yes | no | null | null | null |
34 | 34 | 19931116_620_3 | MR. ANGELL. | "Now, if you want to make a substitute motion and reverse the order, that's your privilege." | But, Mike, one person thinks one way and one thinks the other. A motion has been made and seconded. Now, if you want to make a substitute motion and reverse the order, that's your privilege. | [{'speaker': 'MR. KELLEY.', 'text': "I think they're bundled. That's Larry's word and I think he's correct. I think if we go one route, turning the tape recorder off is a much more sensible way to go. If we go with either alternative number 3 or number 4, then I think we leave the tapes on and get permission to erase t... | [{'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': "I don't know what the majority is on keeping the tape recorder on.But let's find out.Let's vote."}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "Okay, I'm willing to--"}, {'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': '[We might first] have a vote between this question of something like minutes... | no | null | null | null | null |
35 | 35 | 19980929_275_3 | VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH. | "What did we learn there?" | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'In that sense, every loss is an error. The issue is to define the error. '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'I agree that we are going to need that information for our testimony, which is being prepared by some of the people who are sitting at the end of thi... | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'I think we are all trying to make estimates on the fly, but that is not going to give a very accurate description of how it really works.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'What I think we are going to need for our testimony on Thursday is a general summary ... | no | null | null | null | null |
36 | 36 | 19891219_5_13 | MR. PRELL. | "Dave will begin." | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'First, may I have a motion to approve the minutes? '}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'So move. '}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Second. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Without objection. Mr. Prell, would you like to start us off? '}] | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'President Stern is on his way, but we can get started.First, may I have a motion to approve the minutes?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'So move.'}, {'speaker': 'SPEAKER(?).', 'text': 'Second.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Without objectio... | no | null | null | null | null |
37 | 37 | 19770517_46_3 | MR. ROOS. | "And the farmer's ability to repay in many instances is limited by the income that he can earn off of working that land." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'Do they classify them as real estate? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'Yes. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'So they are primarily secured by the real estate. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': "The second deed of trust. And it's not just the banks, it's the S&Ls, ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. JACKSON.', 'text': 'Because many times the existing first mortgage, which may be assumed or retained, is at such a low interest rate--4, 5, 6, or 7 percent--that the combined total cost of the two produces a lower cost to the customer than a refinance rate at current rates, which now have risen to the... | no | null | null | null | null |
38 | 38 | 19930203_275_3 | MR. KEEHN. | "In a perfect world, frankly, that's what I'd prefer." | Mr. Chairman, as you went through your opening comments I completely agreed with what you said and how you said it but, honestly, I thought you were coming to a different conclusion. I thought you made a very good case for leaving the ranges where they were and not making a change. In a perfect world, frankly, that's w... | [{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': "So, why not explain that this is not a target and that we don't really have targets. We can set up monitoring ranges for M1 and the base, which might be useful for some purposes [in terms of] where we think they may fall, but they're not targets for the Committee. What is a target i... | [{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'I can imagine a set of circumstances, without putting a probability on it, where the yield curve could flatten dramatically, we could get 1 percent M1 growth and 8 percent M2 growth, and as long as we were getting something close to the central tendency [of our forecasts] or the Boa... | yes | yes | utterance | contradiction | utterance |
39 | 39 | 19790320_74_19 | MR. BLACK. | "If so, that's an important reason for not doing anything at this particular time." | Mr. Chairman, I come out somewhat less optimistic than the staff. Like many, we've been impressed by the strength we've had in the economy. It has been much greater up until now, as far as the statistics show, than we had expected. But I'm becoming increasingly concerned by the appearance of scattered signs that we fre... | [{'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': "Now is the time to sit back and let them work and not make it seem as if we're panicking about what's going on in the economy currently, which I think some people are doing. Also, I doubt that most of the spot prices are going to hold; some of them have been pushed up and are now b... | [{'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': "With the possibility that we could dip into a recession and the high costs of that in a variety of areas, I would take the position that we ought to wait another month until we have some better data.The first quarterly estimate by the Commerce Department is notoriously bad.It can b... | yes | yes | utterance | contradiction | null |
40 | 40 | 19850820_329_1 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "That's not going to happen that fast." | That's not going to happen that fast. But the tendency, with a sharp enough decline in the dollar, would be in that direction. | [{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'Manufacturing. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Truman has a subtotal of 100 percent capacity utilization. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': "Yes, but that's with no give. "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I think that is probably exaggerated a lit... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "And that you can't dispense with that without it having other consequences."}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'Well, the American banks would buy government securities and make less consumer loans and tighten up their standards there.Is that all bad?'}, {'speaker': 'VICE CH... | yes | null | null | null | null |
41 | 41 | 19970702_157_4 | MR. PARRY. | "So, this exhibit seems encouraging to me, but it also illustrates that it would be a mistake to assume that velocity is now stable." | Also with reference to Exhibit 3, it seems to me that developments in the last couple of years clearly are encouraging. If we focus on the bottom panel of the exhibit, it also seems clear that velocity is continuing to change. In particular, if one had run that regression to include the forecast period, it would have p... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The most recent observations are on top of the fitted line, so we would expect a little more of a drift. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. SIMPSON.', 'text': 'It could alter the slope. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "I don't know how significant it is, but it does raise s... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Tom, going back to the bottom panel of Exhibit 3, I would assume that if we were to substitute gross domestic income for gross domestic product, the most recent data would not look as good as they do because we would be getting higher V2.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SIMPSON.', 'text... | yes | yes | null | ambiguous | null |
42 | 42 | 19870331_49_1 | MR. CROSS. | "[Statement--see Appendix.]" | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'We have to approve the minutes. Can I have a motion? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': 'I move we adopt the minutes. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "Any objections? Mr. Cross' report. "}] | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Do you want to go to $12 billion?Does somebody want to make a motion to go to $12 billion?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': 'Yes.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'And I will second.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "If there are no objections to that, we w... | no | null | null | null | null |
43 | 43 | 19770816_90_2 | MR. ROOS. | "In looking back over the year and a half that I've had the privilege of attending these meetings, and listening to inputs such as we're presently providing, that year and a half in terms of business conditions has been a strong period." | Mr. Chairman, I find myself, as a non-economist, somewhat confused. In looking back over the year and a half that I've had the privilege of attending these meetings, and listening to inputs such as we're presently providing, that year and a half in terms of business conditions has been a strong period. We've had basica... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': "We will have capital spending picking up as time goes on. I think government purchases, federal and state and local, which have been rather weak for the last two years, are going to be a source of considerably greater strength in the period to come. And so even though we do have in ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': "And I think that, by itself, is a pretty substantial reason for explaining the performance of the market in the last several months, when it's been moving pretty steadily downward.So that's a level-adjustment type thing and it doesn't really indicate anything about future profits pr... | no | null | null | null | null |
44 | 45 | 19880630_387_2 | CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. | "The asymmetric language indicates the direction in which the Desk would be leaning without necessarily acting." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': "There is good reason to maintain the current posture, especially in view of the high dollar that we're seeing at the present time. If you see a marked turnaround in markets, international or domestic, then I'd say in two or three weeks, or whenever that occurs, we can have a confere... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': "In terms of the policy record, I don't know how we could communicate it in such a way that it doesn't appear that the Committee has in two successive weeks here taken two further tightening actions.There's probably a way to handle it, in terms of words, so it doesn't come across tha... | no | null | null | null | null |
45 | 46 | 19860401_45_2 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "Is it basically lower interest rates, or what?" | null | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': "I'll move it. "}, {'speaker': 'MS. SEGER.', 'text': 'Second. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Without objection. Mr. Kichline. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. KICHLINE.', 'text': '[Statement--see Appendix.] '}] | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'One of the big banks had a CHIPS problem that kept us up late again, but it had nothing whatever to do with caps.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': "Peter, what's the normal spread between the funds rate and the 3-month bill rate?It's about a point now, and I just w... | no | null | null | null | null |
46 | 47 | 19860401_268_1 | VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN. | "Well, my instincts tell me that sentence probably should be symmetrical even though 7 weeks is a long time." | Well, my instincts tell me that sentence probably should be symmetrical even though 7 weeks is a long time. I don't think we can rule out the possibility, even though I don't see it, that the economy could pick up even faster than most people are assuming. | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'SEVERAL. Yes. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "I don't think we can write that into the directive. "}, {'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.', 'text': 'When do we meet again? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'May 20th--7 weeks. '}] | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'These are pretty fine shadings.Let me jump down [in the directive].I don\'t know if this language in the directive is great, anyway.Do we want to make it perfectly symmetrical in language in the third sentence?Or would we better capture [the consensus] by changing that sentenc... | yes | no | null | null | null |
47 | 48 | 19850521_166_7 | MR. RICE. | "Having said that, I would favor alternative B with a tilt toward "A." By that I mean that I would be willing to relax borrowing a little below Jerry's recommendation and more in accord with the borrowing that we would expect to be compatible with alternative B--in the $300 to $350 million range." | I would just like to respond very briefly to some of the observations that have been made. First, if I thought we were facing an inflation rate of 5 percent, I certainly would be much more concerned and that would be reflected in my view of appropriate policy in that I'd probably want to be more restrictive. I don't th... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'Now, there is nothing in the directive language to indicate that any easing has occurred but we have taken a small step in that way. And in particular the term "maintain" in the first sentence of alternative B would be somewhat confusing. I recognize the system we use and that the te... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'But if that had to be, I would rather see that than encounter the kind of scenario that Chuck outlined earlier, where later we find that we were wrong and have to push it up still more.And if an increase is necessary, I think that might be some indication that the economy is really s... | yes | yes | sentence | contradiction | utterance |
48 | 49 | 19880630_329_1 | CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. | "If we go for alternative III and it turns out to have to be reversed, too, you would be in the same position." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': "Then we are moving in the wrong direction. In that sense, it sends bad signals to the market, especially if you make some progress and you're getting lower interest rates. And then you say, well, now we are going to increase our monetary growth. "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.'... | [{'speaker': 'MR. HELLER.', 'text': 'Like President Morris said: a) it is very difficult to go back on what we have done; b)--'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "Well, basically I'm saying that no matter how you do it, it is an intention that inevitably will be reviewed.And I presume that this is not locked... | no | null | null | null | null |
49 | 50 | 19790522_194_1 | M R . COLDWELL. | "Mr. Chairman, the ranges Steve suggested are just about one half point off my suggestion." | null | [{'speaker': 'M R . BLACK.', 'text': 'Though mine were slightly different, I can buy his ranges completely. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': "That is helpful. I didn't think I'd see that. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': "Well, it's for unusual reasons; I didn't get there by the same route he traveled. ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': "That's right.But zero or half--"}, {'speaker': 'M R . BALLES.', 'text': 'Close to it at least.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. AXILROD.', 'text': "Yes, that's right.That would get [Ml] to the bottom end of the long-run range."}, {'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': "No tightening would occur, ho... | no | null | null | null | null |
50 | 51 | 19930518_201_2 | CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. | "We haven't discussed the fact that we do have a policy record--I beg your pardon, minutes." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': "I think deeds, not words, speak to expectations. I just don't see that asymmetry buys us very much. There can be a plus to it, but there can be a negative to it. And I don't think we need to take the chance. We're going to meet frequently. "}] | [{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': "If, for example, this turns out to be an inflation bubble--if it turns out not to be a problem and goes away--but the real sector because of all the uncertainty about tax policy and so forth turns out to be a good bit weaker than we [anticipate], we're going to look pretty trigger h... | no | null | null | null | null |
51 | 52 | 20030625_297_6 | CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. | "But I would hope that we could stay with this language for today." | Let me put it this way. These are the words we've used in the past; and in this environment, the fewer words we change, the better. In August we can change the wording. It is perfectly conceivable to me that, by the time we get to our August meeting, we will be looking at an economy that is comparable to that in the Gr... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'You want to take the word "substantial" out? Is that what you\'re arguing? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. HOENIG.', 'text': 'Yes, we have a different projection now, a much stronger projection. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Well, it is a projection. '}, {'speaker': '... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "Now, there are disagreements as to where that rate is.But for the purposes of this statement, we're saying that all of the signs plus the additional stimulus would suggest a significant acceleration in economic activity.At the moment, however, we'd be hard pressed to argue t... | yes | no | null | null | null |
52 | 53 | 19860923_322_2 | MR. JOHNSON. | "I'm torn about nuances." | I am in favor of alternative B. I'm torn about nuances. I wouldn't mind having some language describing why we are pausing and seeking no change--language that would be associated with the yield curve and with commodities and the dollar to at least provide some sort of criteria for a guideline. Somebody else mentioned ... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Governor Rice. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'I will join the landslide. Alternative B, no nuances. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Mr. Boykin. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. BOYKIN.', 'text': 'My view is the same, "B." '}] | [{'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': 'It seems to me that there are conflicting trends regarding the strength of the economic outlook and conflicting trends with regard to the inflationary situation.To a large extent we have done our thing over the last few months.Clearly, the markets are beginning to resist these change... | yes | yes | null | null | null |
53 | 54 | 19890328_253_2 | MR. BOYKIN. | "Looking at the District, our recent performance and the near-term prospects for our economy continue to improve." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': "That's not a big deal. A small increase, on that order of magnitude, is built into what we have and if you parse that out among all the producers-- "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'If there are no further questions for Messrs. Prell or Truman, shall we open our tour d... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Yes, but they are still really selling at spot.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': "But they have some long-term contracts.It depends on how those contracts are written; that's right.It works in that direction.One of the favorable factors has been the supply disruptions i... | no | null | null | null | null |
54 | 55 | 20030129_353_6 | MS. BIES. | "While jobs are declining, personal income continues to grow at a modest pace." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. SANTOMERO.', 'text': 'On balance, I see little reason to change our policy stance at this meeting. I do have some concern, though, that when the fourth-quarter GDP numbers are released and activity is shown to be relatively weak, the public reaction may not be all that favorable. Perhaps we should be ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. SANTOMERO.', 'text': "This time I hope that the Board staff is correct and we are not.I think it's important to restate what others have said: There are significant risks.This time the risks are on the upside and the downside.The largest downside risk is geopolitical, and I'll spend no more time on th... | no | null | null | null | null |
55 | 56 | 19921117_42_9 | MR. PARRY. | "The weakness that we're seeing in California certainly is a concern." | Mr. Chairman, conditions in the Twelfth District are little changed from our last meeting, with continued weakness in California offsetting modest growth in the other District states. District-wide employment in September fell at a 1.1 percent annual rate, led by weakness in California. California employment by itself ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': "In terms of your second question, if in fact this does evolve in a way that suggests there are questions as to GM's viability, it's only a matter of time until the market will pick that up and make the rollover of paper a very difficult issue. So, this is a very significant concern i... | [{'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': "Jerry, on the first question, there are frankly questions of viability about GM; that has been true not just recently but going back a few months.I talked to just felt that the troubles were much bigger than were fully understood by the market, and this goes back three or four months... | yes | null | null | null | null |
56 | 57 | 19990203_69_2 | MR. JORDAN. | "Under what circumstances would we wind up having in the portfolio euro-denominated obligations of other taxing authorities besides the Germans?" | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'The real issue came in the first week when the German payment system did not seem to be up to the volume, which is curious because the volume was much reduced. The Germans had put through some changes in their own domestic payment system simultaneously with the shifted target. That ... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'Did you check to see if it worked?'}, {'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'Yes.I meant to cover that.I did say that our conversion went quite well; maybe I covered that too quickly.We were among those who experienced some of the glitches in the new European payment system.We ... | no | null | null | null | null |
57 | 58 | 20080318_128_5 | CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. | "President Plosser made the correct point that we need to think about the level of the funds rate." | Any other questions for Brian? With your indulgence, it has been a very volatile period with a lot of changes in views. We're also a little short of time. I think it might be more focused if I gave a proposal and had people react to it. President Plosser made the correct point that we need to think about the level of t... | [{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': "I guess I was thinking more along the marginal change that we would make should the factors be more successful than we're currently anticipating them to be. That would probably cause us to edge up our path of the fed funds rate to account for that. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. EVANS.', 't... | [{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': 'We did a little more in this forecast to account for what we perceived to be an increase in financial stress.But the bigger factor in marking down our forecasts significantly this year was a reading that we were switching from a sense of a slow-growth scenario and moving into some... | yes | yes | sentence | contradiction | utterance |
58 | 59 | 19921117_163_17 | MR. BOEHNE. | "We've done a study, we have some good reasons, and we can explain our action in a letter." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': "I think we are going to have to cut the range and I would favor a cut of a full point. Though it's strictly a judgmental issue, my feeling is that it's probably better to do it in February for two reasons. One is that we're going to have more of an opportunity to explain it fully at ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': "But a cut now also [may help us] get M2 growth within its range; after all, we've said that we're going to try to [have M2 growth] come within that range.To announce a cut now in the ranges without having done something to try to bring growth up into the range this year would look as... | no | null | null | null | null |
59 | 60 | 19931221_310_3 | MR. MELZER. | "I do agree with what Susan was saying before--that this will be the basis for singling out individuals and criticizing them and it won't be the end of it." | Okay. Then just one final observation: I personally think we need to do this. I do agree with what Susan was saying before--that this will be the basis for singling out individuals and criticizing them and it won't be the end of it. I think we have to try it but, just following Tom's suggestion, we need to be prepared ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': "I suppose, in effect, by releasing this we're waiving attorney/client privilege in some sense. Can that be done on a case-by-case basis without setting any precedent with respect to any future legal advice the Committee might get? "}, {'speaker': 'MR. MATTINGLY.', 'text': "Yes, it c... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MATTINGLY.', 'text': 'That does not mean that you have to grant access to all other conversations.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': 'So there is a legal basis.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MATTINGLY.', 'text': 'I believe there is, yes.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': "Okay.I just would be inclined i... | yes | no | null | null | null |
60 | 61 | 19771220_57_1 | MR. O'CONNELL. | "I believe that would be fairly read as a denial of the request for the information sought." | I believe that would be fairly read as a denial of the request for the information sought. | [{'speaker': "MR. O'CONNELL.", 'text': 'But the agency could, if it wished, rely on that, subject to a push of this petitioned party to the court, if you will, [who would claim] that "10 days wasn\'t necessary, and I have filed suit now to get an earlier response." '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'Well, just... | [{'speaker': "MR. O'CONNELL.", 'text': 'Under the statute, Mr. Chairman, I believe a maximum of 10 days for the initial answer to such a request.The statute calls and contemplates for a period--but that\'s a maximum period, 10 days.That 10 days contemplates the necessary search of information and compilation of the dat... | yes | no | null | null | null |
61 | 62 | 19950706_176_13 | MR. LINDSEY. | "This, of course, is very, very early in the process." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': "If we add a 3 percent inflation factor, we really are cutting real spending by something on the order of $37 billion as opposed to $21 billion, and that is before we get to the Medicare adjustments. The second observation I would make--we have a small sample of only five subcommitt... | [{'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': "The $22 billion figure roughly contrasts with the discretionary number of $18 billion that is in the Greenbook.The fact that these cuts are from a nominal level leads me to make some adjustment to see just how much contraction is occuring.If we thought that real spending should be ... | no | null | null | null | null |
62 | 63 | 19891219_843_2 | MR. JOHNSON. | "[in the directive language] during that weakness?" | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. STERN.', 'text': "[This] might help Manley a little. I think M2 ran for almost two quarters earlier this year at the bottom end of, if not outside, the range; I can't remember exactly. And I don't think the market overreacted to that in the sense that we were going to force the aggregates back in at t... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': "To the extent that we can wean ourselves from moving these things around and having people draw up charts showing which one we put first, second, third, and fourth the better off we're going to be, I think."}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I would agree with that.'}, {... | no | null | null | null | null |
63 | 64 | 19980331_208_10 | MR. BERNARD. | "Yes" | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "We have been butchering the English language in this directive for years, but let's not change it just yet. Why don't you bring that up at a later meeting? [Laughter] "}, {'speaker': 'MR. GRAMLICH.', 'text': 'On that advice, I vote "yes." [Laughter] '}] | [{'speaker': 'MR. BERNARD.', 'text': 'The wording of the operational paragraph is on page 14 of the Bluebook: "In the implementation of policy for the immediate future, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with maintaining a federal funds rate at an average of around 5-1/2 percent.In the context... | ambiguous | null | null | null | null |
64 | 65 | 19801021_442_1 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "It won't affect the borrowings." | It won't affect the borrowings. | [{'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': "When it was running $300 or $400 or $500 million above last month, yes, we did make adjustments then. But at $100 million above, we wouldn't be inclined to make such an adjustment. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. FORD.', 'text': "There are two other dimensions to what you're discussing on ... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'If it literally came out along the "B" path or a little higher, so long as that persisted the borrowing levels would be edging up.But I would describe it as an edging up rather than a dramatic change.If it came in way above [$1.3 billion], then we would have a different situat... | no | null | null | null | null |
65 | 66 | 19840327_247_3 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "Has it got the document attached?" | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': 'We have a requirement for what is eligible for our purchase but that goes to the market acceptability or tradability of the name. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'The more I hear, the more I think we ought to get rid of it. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': 'I ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': "We say we don't need it for open market operations and we say the market is strong on its own and therefore--"}, {'speaker': 'MR. MORRIS.', 'text': 'The market has matured.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "We don't use this now for any surveillance purposes or any that I... | no | null | null | null | null |
66 | 67 | 19770215_262_7 | MR. KIMBREL. | "I think that would serve us better for this immediate period." | Mr. Chairman, I think we share the same concern for the delicate uneasiness and all of the reasons you suggest, but I did detect that you referred to the weather-induced distortions that we are experiencing. And I think they, too, are contributing to that uneasiness. I think this caution that's been generated has proba... | [{'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': "I think the Committee's posture right now ought to be one of a rather cautious stability. And, it seems, that is an appropriate position for the uncertainties of the economy ahead, until we see exactly what kind of a fiscal policy and impact these various things have had over the ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': "I think the interest rate structure is generally satisfactory for growth over this near-term period, and monetary aggregates seem to be growing at a reasonably satisfactory pace, given the liquidity in the economy.I wouldn't resist much of an increase if we came down to the rebate... | yes | yes | utterance | contradiction | -200+ tokens |
67 | 68 | 19831220_180_3 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "You don't have to address it now unless you want to." | I might ask Mr. Kichline to comment on the point Mr. Corrigan made earlier, which is the inverse of this profits point. Is it true that labor costs are going up much less--or historically very little--compared to prices at this stage? You don't have to address it now unless you want to. We'll turn to Governor Partee. | [{'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': "The reasons for that, obviously, are the deficit, the increase in private credit demands, and the falling off of capital inflows. All of these possibilities would operate toward putting upward pressure on interest rates. And if that happens, I think the economy will be very vulnerable... | [{'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': "Along with the vulnerabilities listed by Governor Wallich, I would simply emphasize, as others have pointed out, that the major vulnerability is higher interest rates than we now expect--that is, higher than in the forecast.A number of people have pointed to that, and I think there is... | no | null | null | null | null |
68 | 69 | 19800205_286_10 | MR. BALLES. | "And that, by the same reasoning, translates into a surplus of $12 billion in 1981." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, I would like first to turn to page 3 of this package of charts and ask a question to the staff and then make a comment. On the calculation of the high employment budget you show for 1980 and 1981, Jim: These are your calculations, I assume, rather than the official fig... | [{'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': "[We need to] consider the fact that we may settle on a 4-1/2, 5, or 5-1/2 percent rate of money growth and it's not going to have a great deal of influence over the next nine months.However, at midyear if we have unemployment rates of 7-1/2 or 8-1/2 percent, we must be prepared to ... | no | null | null | null | null |
69 | 70 | 20010627_34_5 | CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. | "Indeed, that's obviously the case if we listen to what he's doing and how he's calculating it." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': 'What has happened, obviously, is that our investment forecast has been off by a ton over the past year. We moved to this technique probably just at the time of our peak forecast of investment and have been revising it down since then. So I think Jeff is entirely fair to present th... | [{'speaker': 'MR. STOCKTON.', 'text': 'While proving more variable, like our forecast, it may turn out to be less biased than an approach that looks simply at a linear filter of productivity performance.So I think the jury is still out.Obviously, we felt in some sense that it was very difficult to present a forecast to... | no | null | null | null | null |
70 | 71 | 19930921_95_10 | MR. HOENIG. | "[Laughter] I'm only half kidding!" | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': "That may be evidence of other things as well, but there's no doubt that our actions recently have aided the further decline in long rates. And I hope we will do whatever we need to do going forward to maintain and extend that progress. Thank you. "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPA... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BROADDUS.', 'text': "Activity undoubtedly will continue to be restrained going forward by the forthcoming tax increases, employer concern about the cost implications of health care reform, and the economic weakness in many of our major export markets.But I still think on balance that there's a better ... | no | null | null | null | null |
71 | 72 | 19961113_153_2 | MR. BERNARD. | "In the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful consideration to economic, financial, and monetary developments, somewhat greater reserve restraint would or slightly lesser reserve restraint might be acceptable in the intermeeting period." | I will be reading from page 12 in the Bluebook: "In the implementation of policy for the immediate future, the Committee seeks to maintain the existing degree of pressure on reserve positions. In the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful c... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MEYER.', 'text': 'Indeed, given that the recent data suggest that the risks have become more balanced, I am more comfortable supporting a proposal of unchanged policy than I was at the last meeting. I still think the major risk is that inflation will begin to rise over the next year. An asymmetric dir... | [{'speaker': 'MR. LINDSEY.', 'text': 'It would take, for example, two to three quarters of growth in the 1-1/2 to 2 percent range just to get the unemployment rate moving back toward 5-1/2 percent, which arguably means no more acceleration in pressures on resources and inflation.So, I think that being asymmetric is exa... | yes | yes | sentence | null | null |
72 | 73 | 19860819_489_1 | MR. PARRY. | "Isn't one possibility just to maintain the $300 million and when a discount rate change occurs, if it does, to revisit the issue of reserves at that time?" | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': "You're giving up the $400 million possibility if you vote for that. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': "What you're really saying is that there's not a whole lot of difference between $300 million borrowing and no discount rate cut and $300 million borrowing with a 1/2 point cut... | [{'speaker': 'MR. RICE.', 'text': 'Leave it at $300 million with the discount rate cut or not.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. MELZER.', 'text': "I would be happy with that if there were a call at the time.Wouldn't it raise the question as to what to do with the borrowing level at that time?"}, {'speaker': 'MR. ANGELL.', 'text': '... | no | null | null | null | null |
73 | 74 | 20080916_125_15 | MR. STERN. | "As far as language is concerned with regard to B, I would be inclined to give more prominence to financial issues." | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Well, even before the events of the last several days, I thought that this was the most severe financial crisis, certainly, that I have seen in my career. And the last several days--as well as some of Bill's comments about possible contagion spreading from breaking the buck and so on and so for... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PLOSSER.', 'text': 'At the same time, I do not perceive an immediate threat to the unanchoring of expectations, so I can accept keeping the funds rate at an unchanged level at this meeting. But at some point, before the unemployment rate begins to improve substantially, I believe this Committee will n... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PLOSSER.', 'text': 'There is just way too much volatility and dust blowing around to make such snap judgments on monetary policy.We have been aggressive with our liquidity provisions, and we will continue to be so, and I support that.Stability coming from monetary policy is an important attribute, and... | yes | yes | utterance | contradiction | null |
74 | 75 | 19770118_123_1 | MR. O'CONNELL. | "There has to be a publication within a framework of 30 days for comment, then a review of the comments and a simultaneous oversight review by the Administrative Conference of the United States under the terms of the statute." | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN BURNS.', 'text': 'The suit might still be brought. '}, {'speaker': "MR. O'CONNELL.", 'text': 'It could. Certainly, Mr. Chairman. Yes? '}, {'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'When does the statute require that the regulation be published by an agency? '}] | [{'speaker': 'MR. MAYO.', 'text': "If the Congress were to support the position that you've just outlined, isn't it still possible that suit can be filed by some people who aren't happy with that and take it to the courts?Or is that not a--"}, {'speaker': "MR. O'CONNELL.", 'text': "May I address that, Mr. Chairman?It's... | no | null | null | null | null |
75 | 76 | 19990518_171_1 | MR. MOSKOW. | "Mr. Chairman, I agree with your recommendations of an asymmetric tilt and an immediate announcement." | Mr. Chairman, I agree with your recommendations of an asymmetric tilt and an immediate announcement. I am concerned about the high level of aggregate demand and the related outlook for inflation. It is important that we show we are concerned about inflation and are ready to take action. In my view, this step will help ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': 'I think we are now at about the outer time limit of being able to make a credible case that we are simply undoing some of the policy easing from last fall. The more distant in time that becomes, the less credible it will be to appeal to that as a way of providing some cap on market e... | [{'speaker': 'MR. POOLE.', 'text': "Some people have expressed the hope that we won't have to move, but for those of us who believe that some tightening is going to be required, I think we need to have some idea of how much that is going to be.That to me is important because once we are seen to be in motion it is possi... | yes | yes | sentence | entailment | utterance |
76 | 77 | 19890822_286_3 | MR. JOHNSON. | "There are plenty of countries that finance that quite easily as long as it's going for sustainable private-sector investment." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': "However big it is, Ted, it's a lot smaller than what people thought it was earlier, I think. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': "No, I don't think it's very much smaller. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': "Well, it's smaller. So what I'm saying is that the market people s... | [{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'If you play it out, the $100 billion current account deficit as a percent of GNP would, assuming a steady state and making all kinds of assumptions about the growth rates and so forth and so on, you get something like 40 percent of GNP.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': 'The debt... | no | null | null | null | null |
77 | 78 | 19821005_212_4 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "But that--" | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. GUFFEY.', 'text': 'Not in any size [unintelligible]. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Not aggressively, no. We have this not terribly aggressive [unintelligible]. But I think the attitude to begin with is that there is a concern about this repetitive appreciation of the dollar and the dol... | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': "Well, you're also assuming that we can have a stable level of recession in the world."}, {'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': "That is true.[The world economy] doesn't have to keep going down all the time."}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'The political implications ... | no | null | null | null | null |
78 | 79 | 19920701_276_3 | MR. LINDSEY. | "If in fact we go up [to Congress] and say that we are uncertain about where things are temporarily, that's one thing." | null | [{'speaker': 'MS. PHILLIPS.', 'text': "So, I'd rather see a bit of a conjunction in the message that on the one hand we're going to ease to try to deal with the economy but at the same time we are making a statement about inflation with respect to our longer-run objectives. "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text'... | [{'speaker': 'MS. PHILLIPS.', 'text': "It seems to me that if they were taken in conjunction, we'd have an opportunity to give two messages: A message about the strength of the economy and at the same time a signal with respect to our seriousness about inflation.As a citizen I also have some difficulty setting goals th... | no | null | null | null | null |
79 | 80 | 19810203_292_2 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "Each month during that autumn period all the projections said it was going to level off this month." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': "Certainly one can look at some periods last year, like the August-September period, and say that we surely should have moved the path more. I think one can come to a different conclusion about last spring when the adjustments were on the other side. Some regular upward adjustmen... | [{'speaker': 'MR. STERNLIGHT.', 'text': "When the Committee indicated in the adoption of its objectives that, say, the objective was 4 percent but it wouldn't mind if that were a little faster or a little slower because of where we were coming out vis-a-vis the annual targets at that point, that was the conditioning fa... | no | null | null | null | null |
80 | 81 | 19851217_111_3 | MR. BLACK. | "I think you just put your finger on the key issue: What it is going to do from now on." | No, I'm going to admit, Mr. Chairman, that it has been rather sick; I guess in retrospect I should have recognized that it was sick sooner than I did. But I don't think that's the key issue. I think you just put your finger on the key issue: What it is going to do from now on. We have been through a very unusual period... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "I would agree with that. We'll see whether it has had a partial recovery; I'm not sure it will return to full health. We would have to have one heck of an increase in the economy in the next 3 to 6 months, which is contrary to the projections we have before us. "}, {'speaker':... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BOEHNE.', 'text': 'It just would be very difficult from a public relations and a political point of view ever to base--no, ever is too long--in the foreseeable future to base any kind of bitter pill on something like M1.We ought to continue the workand I think the suggestions that Pres made are worth ... | yes | yes | utterance | null | null |
81 | 82 | 19980818_176_4 | MR. MOSKOW. | "So, I would have a slight preference for an asymmetric directive but I can support a symmetric directive." | Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation for "no change" in policy. On the directive, it is a close call. I think that on balance the risks are still marginally on the upside. So, I would have a slight preference for an asymmetric directive but I can support a symmetric directive. | [{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'In that light, I still believe that the more costly mistake to correct will be the one that occurs if it turns out that excess demand growth does not in fact slow down. The analysis so carefully done and mathematically developed by von Neumann and Morgenstern basically says that we ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'I do not think we ought to blame him for the two-digit problem, but he did develop the basic architecture that goes into modern computers.'}, {'speaker': 'MS. RIVLIN.', 'text': 'I think we ought to blame Alan Greenspan!'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'I learned it fro... | yes | yes | sentence | contradiction | utterance |
82 | 83 | 19940706_68_6 | MR. JORDAN. | "But the dollar now is not consistent with the objective." | Focusing on your reference to market participants, the magic number, and psychological aspects, I want to follow-up on something that Al Broaddus was referring to--the perception of success or failure. In a technical sense, it doesn't matter to me whether you sell $800 million of assets denominated in yen and deutschem... | [{'speaker': 'MR. TRUMAN.', 'text': 'First, the rate went through that level and then it came back. And so some of the psychological aspects of operating close to 100, but above it, were removed. That does not remove the point that Peter made about possible consequences of a large adjustment below that in the absence o... | [{'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'Rather this was in the minds of the participants in the market.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "That's right."}, {'speaker': 'MR. JORDAN.', 'text': 'That was creating this situation that forced our hand.And if it was, we might call it irrational.'}, {'speaker': 'MR. T... | no | null | null | null | null |
83 | 84 | 19840717_526_2 | MR. PARTEE. | "certainly couldn't have been much worse than it was and looks like a continuing problem, and it doesn't seem to have shaken the market any more." | It is true, isn't it, that we've had a couple of bad bank reports? certainly couldn't have been much worse than it was and looks like a continuing problem, and it doesn't seem to have shaken the market any more. | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "That's loss since the last examination, which was 6 months ago. "}, {'speaker': 'MR. KEEHN.', 'text': "Right. That's as opposed to the deterioration of the assets themselves; it's a very significant amount. "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "I think we can return to... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "But there is a certain fear--I don't know about this, but it needs some testing--that application of those standards to national oil credits will result in billions of dollars of loans being put in classified status because they won't pass the stiffer hurdle that's implied by ... | no | null | null | null | null |
84 | 85 | 19951219_179_4 | MR. BLINDER. | "I don't see a reason to keep it there." | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I am one of those opportunists who think that we have the real funds rate too high. As you said, it's higher than it was at the peak of our tightening. I don't see a reason to keep it there. I hope you will allow me to agree with the reasons that you gave for lowering the rate without signing o... | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'How much of that sentiment there is, nobody knows, but I believe that there is some. In my view, it is very important that we not do more than 25 basis points and that we not touch the discount rate because there is sufficient uncertainty that, even though I happen to a... | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.', 'text': 'But more importantly, we are near the year-end, the markets are relatively thin, and people have some very large gains that they may well decide to realize so that 1995 will look like a good year for them.We might also have some additional stock selling shortly after th... | yes | yes | utterance | contradiction | utterance |
85 | 86 | 19931116_839_2 | MR. KELLEY. | "I see very little evidence of an important change." | Well, Mr. Chairman, I'm about where I've been for some months now. I see very little evidence of an important change. My definition of that in my lexicon would be a moderate growth expectation, fits and starts, a surge perhaps here in the fourth quarter but not sustainable, with a slow acceleration--in fits and starts-... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': "And, of course, we've had very little increase in the implied forward rates in the long end of the curve; much of it is intermediate. Nonetheless, when considering when to switch from accommodative to neutral I would note that the current favorable outlook for stronger growth does ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. MULLINS.', 'text': "So I think we ought to be sensitive to the risks associated with maintaining an accommodative stance too long, including the lost opportunity to secure lower inflation.But it does seem to me that it's relatively early in the game.The long bond rate is up 40 basis points but it seem... | yes | yes | utterance | contradiction | utterance |
86 | 87 | 19831004_103_1 | MS. TEETERS. | "Didn't a judge down there overturn one of the restructurings?" | null | [{'speaker': 'VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.', 'text': 'That ought to be an IMF compliance standard! '}, {'speaker': 'MR. PARTEE.', 'text': "That's an unusual hazard. "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "It's indicative of the hazards that they run. I don't know [the details]; all I read was a newspaper report that he... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "The lead banks have agreed in principle; they haven't gotten all the other banks to agree yet.But it's going to remain a quite tenuous situation.Argentina is in a particularly political period before an election.It has been mentioned that they already have taken actions that a... | no | null | null | null | null |
87 | 88 | 20001219_14_2 | MR. FISHER. | "That is, the overall hedging market at the short end of the yield curve is so much deeper than at the current longer end of the yield curve, the 10-year, that the result is this exaggerated swing." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'But in the year-end environment-- '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "If they had those expectations, wouldn't you expect to see it more pronounced in the 2-year swap? It depends on whether it's solely a mortgage hedging operation, and it's obviously not. But the way you... | [{'speaker': 'MR. FISHER.', 'text': 'I think the mortgage portfolio managers looked at your speech and saw in it a mix of a soft landing forecast and an easing forecast without date specificity.And they came to feel a need to rush and anticipate the hedging needs for their portfolios this late in the year.And that, I t... | no | null | null | null | null |
88 | 89 | 19900327_407_3 | MR. BLACK. | "The other is that members of Congress become concerned about the losses and try to exert political pressure on us so that we don't have to take those losses, which would mean pressure to ease policy." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. JOHNSON.', 'text': "But then I think it would become clear to the market if we got to that point. If I were a market participant and I were sitting out there seeing the Federal Reserve talking about price stability and yet selling massive amounts of dollars, I think eventually I'd decide that was a jo... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "Basically when Sam, for example, or some of us from here argue with the Secretary, I think it does have an effect.It has not been 100 percent effective in the sense that we are not fully in control.Frankly, I would be quite fearful of what they might do if we weren't there t... | no | null | null | null | null |
89 | 90 | 20041214_157_5 | CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. | "We can't get around it." | It has always been that way. The point is that, if you divide the Committee into two separate groups and then discuss what those who voted on the particular statement thought and what those who didn't vote thought, we are actually no longer talking about the Federal Open Market Committee. The Federal Open Market Commit... | [{'speaker': 'MR. LACKER.', 'text': "Today's meeting, I think, was an excellent example of that. Third, I view the purpose of the minutes as a means to communicate to the public the deliberations that occurred at the meeting, rather than the deliberations of the Committee-- "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text'... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': 'The discussion of what is going on in the economy and the issues that are on the table and the relevance for potential future policy changes is a full Committee discussion.But the specific policy decision that is reported is the vote of the then-Committee.And the membership ... | no | null | null | null | null |
90 | 91 | 19780815_325_2 | MR. COLDWELL. | "The Treasury and us." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. COLDWELL.', 'text': "Mr. Chairman, I have been on both sides of the fence. I think there have been times when intervention has been desirable. If we're going into this we ought to go into it in a major way; I would not want to go into this if we're going to fritter away a few hundred million. I think ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BALLES.', 'text': "There's a powerful case for doing something against these other currencies.But if we were to do it at all, I must say I would want tougher conditions laid down than just moving to a 2-1/2 percent discount rate and a stimulus program of 4 [trillion] yen.I think they've got to move mo... | no | null | null | null | null |
91 | 92 | 19870211_368_2 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | "My principal concern is that we should warn them that under those circumstances, which may or may not eventually occur, we expect a pretty low Ml." | I think people have to be warned. My principal concern is that we should warn them that under those circumstances, which may or may not eventually occur, we expect a pretty low Ml. | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "I would see at least as much danger there. It will be delicate to write it. I could easily write this in a way that locked us in more than we might want to be locked in to a lowering of M1 if we saw any sign of increasing inflationary pressures. I don't want us to be locked in... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': "I was inclined to be sympathetic to Jerry Corrigan, but you made some pretty tough points on that.At the same time, I think Tom Melzer has a point, too.In a period when the risk of inflation seems to be increasing and the risks of [rising] inflationary expectations also are increasin... | yes | yes | sentence | entailment | -5 sentences |
92 | 93 | 19910703_136_13 | MR. PARRY. | "Like the Greenbook, we expect a decline in inflation over the next year and a half." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': "I think we have a real opportunity here to make significant progress--the best we've had since I've been around. "}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.', 'text': "The coffee is here and I neglected to take the break; I notice everyone is running for coffee, so why don't we take a short... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': "So, what we've done is to assume that M2 will come in slightly above the midpoint of its current range this year and that the FOMC will lower the range for 1992 to 2 to 6 percent and will hold the actual growth of money within that range.This assumption of a lower target range for 19... | no | null | null | null | null |
93 | 94 | 19830209_966_4 | VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON. | "If we want to defer that easing, okay, we can defer it." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. WALLICH.', 'text': 'I would agree with that. '}, {'speaker': 'MS. TEETERS.', 'text': 'Mr. Chairman, maybe Steve could explain to us how he intends to operate. It might help us decide what kind of numbers we put in. '}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'Well, how he intends to operate depends u... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': "But you show, [if] one can believe it, that the radical revision is promptly offset the following week, which goes into February, with a further increase the following week of some substantial size.That now makes February look higher than January.The data are subject to equall... | no | null | null | null | null |
94 | 95 | 19790206_143_2 | CHAIRMAN MILLER. | "Dave." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. MACDONALD.', 'text': "Many businessmen, however, are apprehensive about [the economy] later in the year. People are especially concerned about the consumer being over-extended in the housing market. The strengths in our District include steel and machine tools, but inflation continues to be the overri... | [{'speaker': 'MR. BLACK.', 'text': 'But we think M2 clearly ought to come down and we can\'t think of anything better than what the staff has put down, so we would buy the 4-1/2 to 7-1/2 percent M2 range in "B." We would also buy the staff\'s "B" ranges on M3 and bank credit.'}, {'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': ... | no | null | null | null | null |
95 | 96 | 19920205_88_3 | MR. SIMPSON. | "And the announcements of reverse LBOs and so forth suggest that there still is more room to go in that area." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': 'So at this point I think one should be cautious in anticipating a really radical shift in productivity gains. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. SYRON.', 'text': "A question for Tom Simpson: In your discussion, you talked about the balance sheet restructurings of both households and corporations. ... | [{'speaker': 'MR. PRELL.', 'text': "In the 1980s there was a distinct improvement in productivity performance in manufacturing.The residual has not shown that kind of improvement, and basically our expectation is that we will continue to see manufacturing do well in terms of gains in output per hour and that probably w... | no | null | null | null | null |
96 | 97 | 19800318_292_1 | CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. | ""C" is 5 percent for the first two quarters, as I have calculated it, and the midpoint [of our annual target] is 4-3/4 percent." | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I would not give all that much weight to the degree of support we\'re going to get if this is dragged out indefinitely and we have to go through this process once again. Where that leaves me in terms of "B" and "C"--I don\'t think anybody mentioned "A"--is that at this particu... | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.', 'text': 'I would not give all that much weight to the degree of support we\'re going to get if this is dragged out indefinitely and we have to go through this process once again.Where that leaves me in terms of "B" and "C"--I don\'t think anybody mentioned "A"--is that at this particul... | no | null | null | null | null |
97 | 98 | 20050630_71_1 | MR. GALLIN. | "Let me note just one last thing." | null | [{'speaker': 'MR. GALLIN.', 'text': "So, some of my work is trying to get at just these types of criticisms. But from the underlying data, I have been able to look at rent appreciation for different segments of the rental market, trying to see--with home ownership rates going up--where the homeowner market is stealing,... | [{'speaker': 'MR. GALLIN.', 'text': "As an aside, but regarding that particular point, I've been working one day a week at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and I have access to the confidential underlying micro data that they use to build up the CPI.So, some of my work is trying to get at just these types of criticisms.... | no | null | null | null | null |
98 | 99 | 19950706_274_2 | MS. PHILLIPS. | "I find myself quite frustrated with this discussion." | I favor alternative II for 1995 and alternative I for 1996. I find myself quite frustrated with this discussion. I think part of it has to do with our not really knowing whether the ranges are something we should be shooting for--whether they are long-term objectives, or whether they are in effect short-term monitoring... | [{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': "I will throw on the table the possibility that if we really do not believe that the aggregates are going to return to providing us with some nexus to the real economy, the time might be coming if it is not here already to think about a change in the statute. Not only is this sett... | [{'speaker': 'MR. FORRESTAL.', 'text': "Changing the ranges would just draw more attention to them and provide a real distraction to the essential conversations that I think we need to be having.With that in mind, I would favor alternative II for 1995 and alternative I for 1996.That encompasses M3.Let me just add one o... | yes | yes | null | null | null |
99 | 100 | 19780516_161_5 | MR. STERNLIGHT. | "There are those reasons for their being sold--foreign accounts, captive-type customers, and others who [unintelligible]." | null | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': 'Thank you, Peter. Any questions? Phil. '}, {'speaker': 'MR. JACKSON.', 'text': 'How does the market currently view the disparity between the level of the federal funds rate and the 90-day bill rate? What is the market conversation about that disparity in rates? '}] | [{'speaker': 'CHAIRMAN MILLER.', 'text': "You all see some things, but the staff was questioned on this yesterday and I think they would probably feel that prices are the most vulnerable part of their forecast--that they see pressures--but for the discussion on actual real activity, [they thought] it might be lower.Let... | no | null | null | null | null |
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