| protocol,corpus,judge,method,mle_mode,beta_reference,temperature_fit_mean,temperature_fit_std,mae,spearman_rho,kendall_tau,spread,n_models,alpha,split_coverage_point,split_coverage_lo,split_coverage_hi,split_median_width_point,split_median_width_lo,split_median_width_hi,qhat_point,qhat_lo,qhat_hi,operational_coverage,operational_median_width,operational_qhat |
| main,lmarena100k,Gemma4-26B-A4B,hard,decisive,,,,55.92358477307947,0.9759740259740264,0.8760942760942761,2.0507927802026047,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena100k,Gemma4-26B-A4B,temperature_mle,decisive,,0.5360855069698109,0.0037227338726907,15.68764834879638,0.9649350649350652,0.8464646464646466,0.9855250663522256,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena100k,DeepSeek-V3.2,hard,decisive,,,,63.3558463126496,0.9434343434343436,0.8114478114478115,2.142672098856054,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena100k,DeepSeek-V3.2,temperature_mle,decisive,,0.3581594523213105,0.0028225996560732,17.14413433596121,0.9460317460317462,0.8141414141414143,0.9461755878377268,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena100k,Qwen3.5-27B,hard,decisive,,,,46.045366755472195,0.9670274170274172,0.85993265993266,1.8045078715346972,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena100k,Qwen3.5-27B,temperature_mle,decisive,,0.5992246048538588,0.0034196468163752,13.62436880919996,0.9695526695526698,0.8626262626262627,0.9194650857784152,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,DeepSeek-V3.2,hard,decisive,,,,63.3558463126496,0.9434343434343436,0.8114478114478115,2.142672098856054,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,DeepSeek-V3.2,soft_beta,decisive,,0.3581604599892812,1.1204557112111812e-16,17.056319307049183,0.9481240981240984,0.8168350168350169,0.9492605708958176,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,DeepSeek-V3.2,const_0.55,,,,,39.494082429540775,0.9431457431457434,0.8101010101010102,0.1791714340368162,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,DeepSeek-V3.2,const_0.65,,,,,24.78474096684602,0.9431457431457434,0.8101010101010102,0.5440295247188537,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,DeepSeek-V3.2,const_0.75,,,,,16.052969969474393,0.9431457431457434,0.8101010101010102,0.9297714353486672,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,DeepSeek-V3.2,const_0.85,,,,,26.10735985409795,0.9430735930735932,0.8087542087542089,1.3555371165455994,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,DeepSeek-V3.2,const_0.95,,,,,49.467718046558254,0.9443722943722946,0.8114478114478115,1.8518152588895376,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Gemma4-26B-A4B,hard,decisive,,,,55.92358477307947,0.9759740259740264,0.8760942760942761,2.0507927802026047,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Gemma4-26B-A4B,soft_beta,decisive,,0.5360736218399681,0.0,15.593537386806094,0.965873015873016,0.847811447811448,0.987033377921704,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Gemma4-26B-A4B,const_0.55,,,,,39.85765245095972,0.9734487734487736,0.8693602693602694,0.1733914024627076,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Gemma4-26B-A4B,const_0.65,,,,,23.617831288346643,0.9734487734487736,0.8693602693602694,0.5262132223039202,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Gemma4-26B-A4B,const_0.75,,,,,12.209316805388442,0.9744588744588748,0.8707070707070709,0.8982890027197993,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Gemma4-26B-A4B,const_0.85,,,,,20.51339485256113,0.9749639249639253,0.8720538720538722,1.306815862907687,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Gemma4-26B-A4B,const_0.95,,,,,42.90035209058575,0.975901875901876,0.8747474747474748,1.7781578452255682,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena100k,GPT-OSS-120B,hard,decisive,,,,47.365128098414985,0.9683982683982686,0.851851851851852,1.8533942240831112,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena100k,GPT-OSS-120B,temperature_mle,decisive,,0.5796110381144245,0.0034676976954801,14.427510354457404,0.9660173160173162,0.8531986531986533,0.8861892861410025,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Qwen3.5-27B,hard,decisive,,,,46.045366755472195,0.9670274170274172,0.85993265993266,1.8045078715346972,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Qwen3.5-27B,soft_beta,decisive,,0.5992172725173974,1.1204557112111812e-16,13.579771442265258,0.9695526695526698,0.8626262626262627,0.920947703223851,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Qwen3.5-27B,const_0.55,,,,,42.01348335891127,0.963780663780664,0.8531986531986533,0.1565064636931228,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Qwen3.5-27B,const_0.65,,,,,27.72856376472185,0.963708513708514,0.851851851851852,0.4742683695824966,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Qwen3.5-27B,const_0.75,,,,,15.88273799485554,0.963708513708514,0.851851851851852,0.807031798198588,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Qwen3.5-27B,const_0.85,,,,,16.5708029410008,0.9647186147186148,0.8572390572390572,1.1676159723920636,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Qwen3.5-27B,const_0.95,,,,,34.78431489747608,0.9671717171717176,0.8612794612794614,1.574372397245141,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena100k,Gemma4-E4B,hard,decisive,,,,48.21959047636051,0.925974025974026,0.7831649831649833,1.8549712802121487,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena100k,Gemma4-E4B,temperature_mle,decisive,,0.3804875502148636,0.0035285645163502,20.950796611987215,0.9383838383838388,0.8087542087542089,0.716026485435341,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,GPT-OSS-120B,hard,decisive,,,,47.365128098414985,0.9683982683982686,0.851851851851852,1.8533942240831112,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,GPT-OSS-120B,soft_beta,decisive,,0.5796020001083741,1.1204557112111812e-16,14.377589295707544,0.9660173160173162,0.8531986531986533,0.8867808001303765,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,GPT-OSS-120B,const_0.55,,,,,40.4183610893632,0.9702741702741704,0.85993265993266,0.1615584364651117,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,GPT-OSS-120B,const_0.65,,,,,25.471505875904946,0.9702741702741704,0.85993265993266,0.4894234429251308,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,GPT-OSS-120B,const_0.75,,,,,13.70787252397868,0.9696248196248198,0.8572390572390572,0.8322678725357403,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,GPT-OSS-120B,const_0.85,,,,,16.558970211203278,0.9696248196248198,0.8572390572390572,1.2028303077732805,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,GPT-OSS-120B,const_0.95,,,,,36.15764810114515,0.9683982683982686,0.851851851851852,1.619237265359602,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena100k,Llama-3.3-70B,hard,decisive,,,,43.92553982607252,0.867893217893218,0.6902356902356903,1.6884799116362683,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena100k,Llama-3.3-70B,temperature_mle,decisive,,0.4083790139185274,0.0042557974275533,24.513764048710215,0.8721500721500723,0.6983164983164983,0.683092642709926,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Gemma4-E4B,hard,decisive,,,,48.21959047636051,0.925974025974026,0.7831649831649833,1.8549712802121487,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Gemma4-E4B,soft_beta,decisive,,0.3804886619865115,0.0,20.77318470550527,0.9395382395382396,0.8141414141414143,0.7182508080221724,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Gemma4-E4B,const_0.55,,,,,40.446019258495696,0.923737373737374,0.7791245791245792,0.1632199301572802,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Gemma4-E4B,const_0.65,,,,,27.58010718138692,0.9240259740259742,0.7804713804713805,0.4941532948935306,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Gemma4-E4B,const_0.75,,,,,20.6488899797779,0.9240259740259742,0.7804713804713805,0.8392107844567746,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Gemma4-E4B,const_0.85,,,,,22.07186611106272,0.9254689754689756,0.7831649831649833,1.2102159152395462,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Gemma4-E4B,const_0.95,,,,,37.54990602793947,0.9260461760461762,0.7845117845117846,1.623672686090645,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena100k,GPT-OSS-20B,hard,decisive,,,,34.45540955887607,0.9563492063492066,0.8289562289562291,1.5840464635577154,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena100k,GPT-OSS-20B,temperature_mle,decisive,,0.4608202000175885,0.0027937684885311,19.83440950958043,0.9651515151515152,0.8505050505050505,0.6572142538778981,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Llama-3.3-70B,hard,decisive,,,,43.92553982607252,0.867893217893218,0.6902356902356903,1.6884799116362683,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Llama-3.3-70B,soft_beta,decisive,,0.4083687176607279,1.1204557112111812e-16,24.380546412896873,0.8722222222222223,0.6983164983164983,0.6842691225938569,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Llama-3.3-70B,const_0.55,,,,,41.368940885954,0.8686868686868688,0.6915824915824916,0.1507311259756056,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Llama-3.3-70B,const_0.65,,,,,30.13751123150313,0.8686868686868688,0.6915824915824916,0.4559263001337972,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Llama-3.3-70B,const_0.75,,,,,24.74456343359412,0.8683982683982686,0.6915824915824916,0.7728089922835726,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Llama-3.3-70B,const_0.85,,,,,24.810965894898786,0.8668831168831171,0.6902356902356903,1.1109659700101262,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Llama-3.3-70B,const_0.95,,,,,36.28076348717378,0.8663059163059165,0.6902356902356903,1.4834236992122698,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena100k,Qwen3-32B,hard,decisive,,,,27.491481572112846,0.9680375180375184,0.8572390572390572,1.4480463402113268,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena100k,Qwen3-32B,temperature_mle,decisive,,0.4968057253503256,0.0032545485663052,16.749427367309917,0.9733044733044736,0.8707070707070709,0.7586419054712434,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,GPT-OSS-20B,hard,decisive,,,,34.45540955887607,0.9563492063492066,0.8289562289562291,1.5840464635577154,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,GPT-OSS-20B,soft_beta,decisive,,0.4608171575678368,1.6806835668167715e-16,19.788602814343932,0.9652236652236654,0.851851851851852,0.6585712436054532,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,GPT-OSS-20B,const_0.55,,,,,41.29221157553003,0.9549783549783551,0.8262626262626264,0.143018520067759,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,GPT-OSS-20B,const_0.65,,,,,27.863225400561603,0.9556998556998558,0.8276094276094277,0.4322611632031526,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,GPT-OSS-20B,const_0.75,,,,,18.155017311856433,0.9564213564213566,0.8289562289562291,0.7315029563451717,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,GPT-OSS-20B,const_0.85,,,,,15.66135359824962,0.957720057720058,0.8303030303030304,1.0487998878261673,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,GPT-OSS-20B,const_0.95,,,,,25.73361539557479,0.9561327561327564,0.8276094276094277,1.3947680178442416,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena140k,Gemma4-E4B,hard,decisive,,,,87.96048293982957,0.9242057732623772,0.7735849056603774,2.6426798723921614,53.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena140k,Gemma4-E4B,temperature_mle,decisive,,0.4108791572943424,0.0031515910192126,18.810634447106708,0.921383647798742,0.7634252539912918,0.7808363363476083,53.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena140k,Gemma4-26B-A4B,hard,decisive,,,,77.54351311775675,0.937993871956136,0.8055152394775037,2.5387661241009667,53.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena140k,Gemma4-26B-A4B,temperature_mle,decisive,,0.604440381113175,0.005193720150289,19.19831379171903,0.9448476052249638,0.802612481857765,0.7047435044270176,53.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena140k,DeepSeek-V3.2,hard,decisive,,,,70.93902723961584,0.929204966940816,0.79100145137881,2.3331821200428338,53.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena140k,DeepSeek-V3.2,temperature_mle,decisive,,0.4002454945862358,0.0029656593185425,17.432256901937357,0.9300919206579584,0.7880986937590712,0.7911285804594119,53.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena140k,Qwen3.5-27B,hard,decisive,,,,69.32864887871379,0.9375907111756168,0.7948717948717948,2.3180119935653365,52.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena140k,Qwen3.5-27B,temperature_mle,decisive,,0.5117869732890598,0.0036173804211938,20.01955474214087,0.923162298301033,0.7631975867269986,0.7482621385833664,52.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Qwen3-32B,hard,decisive,,,,27.491481572112846,0.9680375180375184,0.8572390572390572,1.4480463402113268,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Qwen3-32B,soft_beta,decisive,,0.4968033688065081,1.6806835668167715e-16,16.683686580894424,0.9732323232323232,0.8693602693602694,0.7603311989114492,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Qwen3-32B,const_0.55,,,,,42.02474411960565,0.9670995670995672,0.8545454545454547,0.1319893884588359,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Qwen3-32B,const_0.65,,,,,29.1189525047967,0.9670995670995672,0.8545454545454547,0.3986448764876472,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Qwen3-32B,const_0.75,,,,,18.663660639845386,0.966883116883117,0.8531986531986533,0.6736412013339472,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Qwen3-32B,const_0.85,,,,,13.649051928697682,0.966883116883117,0.8531986531986533,0.9636690010768644,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| smoothing,lmarena100k,Qwen3-32B,const_0.95,,,,,20.416660404986267,0.9679653679653684,0.855892255892256,1.2774980413206185,55.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena140k,GPT-OSS-20B,hard,decisive,,,,67.47856399511895,0.8999354942751169,0.725689404934688,2.1692052744818535,53.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena140k,GPT-OSS-20B,temperature_mle,decisive,,0.5118171724604303,0.0041688454587245,22.801413243156777,0.9083212385099176,0.7460087082728593,0.6268888056654199,53.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena140k,GPT-OSS-120B,hard,decisive,,,,53.66958933458915,0.9004999193678438,0.7198838896952106,1.8980907043065591,53.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena140k,GPT-OSS-120B,temperature_mle,decisive,,0.5612157459375733,0.0044955218690688,23.956489857880285,0.9009030801483632,0.7285921625544268,0.6018953281156877,53.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena140k,Llama-3.3-70B,hard,decisive,,,,56.681370656176114,0.7539912917271407,0.5703918722786647,2.1430214773054774,53.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| main,lmarena140k,Llama-3.3-70B,temperature_mle,decisive,,0.4740270519220241,0.0045307340061225,31.13564813602292,0.7524592807611676,0.5718432510885342,0.6014624716431678,53.0,,,,,,,,,,,,, |
| conformal-historical,lmarena100k,Qwen3.5-27B,hard,,,,,,,,,55.0,0.1,0.9,0.7214285714285714,1.0,212.2046772610904,142.57706456894437,256.73878287936515,9.386619951194582,6.610262780461757,10.992492080947724,,, |
| conformal-historical,lmarena100k,Qwen3.5-27B,soft,,,,,,,,,55.0,0.1,0.9571428571428572,0.9285714285714286,0.9964285714285714,74.39868874963732,69.45506832508131,85.28776615107509,6.9867968528178865,6.637040204803245,8.112782899071574,,, |
| conformal-historical,lmarena100k,GPT-OSS-120B,hard,,,,,,,,,55.0,0.1,0.9785714285714284,0.9321428571428572,1.0,243.90618820535437,211.94260894777713,265.6664207843609,11.67975667413583,10.422833852179512,12.44216938425238,,, |
| conformal-historical,lmarena100k,GPT-OSS-120B,soft,,,,,,,,,55.0,0.1,0.9285714285714284,0.8607142857142857,0.9964285714285714,75.10039156507159,59.944195096416365,98.75726416626938,9.03720102348217,7.180655344528706,11.912251447292348,,, |
| conformal-historical,lmarena100k,Gemma4-26B-A4B,hard,,,,,,,,,55.0,0.1,0.9571428571428572,0.9,0.9964285714285714,219.565244158856,197.5750762168935,235.5513255846207,11.527011987015396,10.400534832251656,12.41911640536702,,, |
| conformal-historical,lmarena100k,Gemma4-26B-A4B,soft,,,,,,,,,55.0,0.1,0.9571428571428572,0.8642857142857142,1.0,78.2074695161717,66.15855590984388,85.9036945438451,8.596951047923733,7.268794332830717,9.390940057498051,,, |
| conformal-historical,lmarena100k,DeepSeek-V3.2,hard,,,,,,,,,55.0,0.1,0.95,0.8642857142857142,1.0,261.04038437860726,238.69771603482647,284.7325813042947,12.110383735871938,11.1149640703431,12.935376769617209,,, |
| conformal-historical,lmarena100k,DeepSeek-V3.2,soft,,,,,,,,,55.0,0.1,0.9285714285714286,0.7714285714285715,0.9964285714285714,78.01407694808795,58.37739336781696,89.39482161236899,10.157077593244887,7.458137977255896,11.60805088622606,,, |
| conformal-historical,lmarena100k,Gemma4-E4B,hard,,,,,,,,,55.0,0.1,0.9,0.6642857142857144,1.0,235.15478685096977,135.9663692902726,285.3620916221917,12.219611874909004,7.003949586346479,14.358332152673324,,, |
| conformal-historical,lmarena100k,Gemma4-E4B,soft,,,,,,,,,55.0,0.1,0.9642857142857142,0.8964285714285715,1.0,143.09817342586302,104.09474072446672,171.39985613545866,20.146706676458894,15.05073701367872,23.265319637557983,,, |
| conformal-historical,lmarena100k,GPT-OSS-20B,hard,,,,,,,,,55.0,0.1,0.9571428571428572,0.9285714285714286,0.9964285714285714,186.7575471766373,164.76351377151855,225.37404436349163,10.19975136512487,9.579489076917229,11.95768553795709,,, |
| conformal-historical,lmarena100k,GPT-OSS-20B,soft,,,,,,,,,55.0,0.1,0.9428571428571428,0.8928571428571429,0.9964285714285714,102.85330718819688,85.79965365541209,118.13192292492712,13.31056600360803,11.39798945624872,14.751503967765828,,, |
| conformal-historical,lmarena100k,Llama-3.3-70B,hard,,,,,,,,,55.0,0.1,0.9428571428571428,0.8642857142857142,0.9964285714285714,249.1906490819396,201.8166834931817,366.29079284052744,14.824892511928912,11.702984844930963,21.86665576061555,,, |
| conformal-historical,lmarena100k,Llama-3.3-70B,soft,,,,,,,,,55.0,0.1,0.9428571428571428,0.8964285714285715,0.9964285714285714,132.60493234934012,115.70903678443418,158.4715213602419,18.10098863571967,16.083477315198067,21.64051895262783,,, |
| conformal-historical,lmarena100k,Qwen3-32B,hard,,,,,,,,,55.0,0.1,0.8857142857142858,0.7285714285714285,0.9964285714285714,131.91588604373615,79.08049837972149,183.77875573780128,8.60976161335357,4.960576189016027,12.185261852285011,,, |
| conformal-historical,lmarena100k,Qwen3-32B,soft,,,,,,,,,55.0,0.1,0.9214285714285716,0.8285714285714285,0.9964285714285714,77.98099133787227,61.056021527007125,101.71005257824552,9.06500917522678,6.923091984401216,11.852171069273586,,, |
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