"""Recompute explicitly selected paper protocols from released annotations. This is a source-preserving reference pipeline. Rebuilding a table from cached measurements and rerunning its fits are separate operations; neither silently substitutes the main fold-specific protocol for a pooled-temperature ablation. """ from __future__ import annotations import argparse import hashlib import json from pathlib import Path import numpy as np import pandas as pd from . import historical_core as core def canonical_frame(frame: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: """Apply the original quarter-to-tie rule to both human and judge labels.""" return core.collapse_preference_frame( core.clean_scores(frame), collapse_policy="quarter_to_tie", collapse_threshold=0.26, ).reset_index(drop=True) def run_point_estimates(frame: pd.DataFrame, *, pooled: bool = False): frame = canonical_frame(frame) dims = core.infer_score_dimensions(frame) beta = core.fit_temperature_mle(frame, dims, mle_mode="decisive")["temperature"] if pooled else None return core.run_temperature_holdout( frame, dims, core.model_universe(frame), reg=0.01, tie_strategy="half", mle_mode="decisive", threshold=0.05, soft_tie_strategy="half", precomputed_beta=beta, ) def run_smoothing(frame: pd.DataFrame): """Historical E.1: pooled beta, with a retrospective constant sweep.""" frame = canonical_frame(frame) baseline_summary, baseline_detail = run_point_estimates(frame, pooled=True) models = core.model_universe(frame) human = baseline_detail[baseline_detail.method == "hard"].set_index("model")["human_bt_elo"].to_dict() details = [] summaries = [] for c in (0.55, 0.65, 0.75, 0.85, 0.95): estimates = {} for target in models: anchors = [m for m in models if m != target] anchor_frame = frame[frame.model_a.isin(anchors) & frame.model_b.isin(anchors)] matches, labels, weights = core._build_constant_matches(anchor_frame, anchors, "judge_pref", c) strengths = core.fit_softlabel_bt(anchors, matches, labels, regularization=0.01, sample_weight=weights) target_frame = core.target_vs_anchor_rows(frame, target, allowed_anchors=set(anchors)) y, theta, weights = core._encode_constant_target_for_held_out(target_frame, target, c, strengths) estimate = core.ELO_BASE + core.BT_TO_ELO * core.solve_target_theta(y, theta, regularization=0.01, sample_weight=weights) estimates[target] = estimate details.append({"model": target, "method": f"const_{c:.2f}", "judge_bt_elo": estimate, "human_bt_elo": human[target], "bt_elo_residual": human[target] - estimate, "abs_bt_elo_residual": abs(human[target] - estimate)}) summaries.append({"method": f"const_{c:.2f}", **core.eval_elo(estimates, human)}) baseline_summary = baseline_summary.replace({"method": {"temperature_mle": "soft_beta"}}) baseline_detail = baseline_detail.replace({"method": {"temperature_mle": "soft_beta"}}) return (pd.concat([baseline_summary, pd.DataFrame(summaries)], ignore_index=True), pd.concat([baseline_detail, pd.DataFrame(details)], ignore_index=True)) def run_historical_conformal(frame: pd.DataFrame): """Historical Table 3 protocol, including its original quantile operation. This deliberately preserves the original higher-interpolation quantile, pooled beta, and bootstrap/split seeds. It is not an exact-order-statistic implementation intended for new analyses. """ frame = core.prepare_shared_frame(canonical_frame(frame), tie_strategy="half") dims = core.infer_score_dimensions(frame) beta = core.fit_temperature_mle(frame, dims, mle_mode="decisive")["temperature"] detail_frames, repeat_frames, summaries = [], [], [] for method in ("hard", "soft"): detail, _ = core.build_heldout_table( frame, judge_mode=method, min_matches=25, regularization=0.01, # The original hard pipeline resampled anchors; soft held them fixed. bootstrap_resamples=20, seed=42, bootstrap_anchor_pool=(method == "hard"), dims=dims, beta=beta, tie_strategy="half", progress_every=0, ) repeats, _ = core.repeated_split_conformal( detail, alpha=0.1, use_normalized=True, seed=42, n_repeats=5, progress_every=0, ) summary = core.build_alpha_summary(repeats, []) for obj in (detail, repeats, summary): obj["method"] = method detail_frames.append(detail) repeat_frames.append(repeats) summaries.append(summary) return pd.concat(summaries), pd.concat(detail_frames), pd.concat(repeat_frames) def summarize_cached_main(paths): """Recalculate Table 2 metrics from archived model-level measurements.""" rows = [] for path in paths: detail = pd.read_csv(path) detail = detail[detail.method.isin(["hard", "temperature_mle"])] for method, group in detail.groupby("method", sort=False): if group.model.duplicated().any(): raise ValueError(f"Duplicate model rows for {method}: {path}") metrics = core.eval_elo(group.set_index("model").judge_bt_elo.to_dict(), group.set_index("model").human_bt_elo.to_dict()) rows.append({"label": group.label.iloc[0], "method": method, **metrics, "temperature_fit_mean": group.temperature.mean()}) return pd.DataFrame(rows) def _check_number(checks, name, actual, expected, *, atol=1e-9): actual, expected = float(actual), float(expected) passed = bool(np.isclose(actual, expected, rtol=0, atol=atol, equal_nan=True)) checks.append({"name": name, "actual": actual if np.isfinite(actual) else None, "expected": expected if np.isfinite(expected) else None, "passed": passed}) if not passed: raise ValueError(f"Cached result inconsistency: {name}: {actual} != {expected}") def _markdown_table(frame): def cell(value): if isinstance(value, (float, np.floating)): return f"{value:.6f}" if np.isfinite(value) else "" return str(value).replace("|", "\\|") columns = list(frame.columns) lines = ["| " + " | ".join(columns) + " |", "| " + " | ".join(["---"] * len(columns)) + " |"] lines.extend("| " + " | ".join(cell(v) for v in row) + " |" for row in frame.itertuples(index=False, name=None)) return "\n".join(lines) def build_cached_tables(root, out): """Validate and aggregate archived measurements without running any fits. Expected layout: main91/JUDGE/{heldout_models_decisive,summary_decisive}.csv; conformal61/{hard,soft}/JUDGE/quarter_tie/{split_repeats.csv,condition_summary.json}; conformal61/mode_comparison.csv; smoothing/per_judge.csv. """ root, out = Path(root), Path(out) out.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) checks, sources = [], [] def record(path): sources.append({"path": str(path.relative_to(root)), "sha256": hashlib.sha256(path.read_bytes()).hexdigest()}) report = {"operation": "aggregate_saved_measurements_no_fits", "checks": checks, "sources": sources} try: main_paths = sorted((root / "main91").glob("*/heldout_models_decisive.csv")) if not main_paths: raise ValueError("No main91 model-level result files found") main_table = summarize_cached_main(main_paths) for path in main_paths: record(path) summary_path = path.with_name("summary_decisive.csv") record(summary_path) expected = pd.read_csv(summary_path) label = expected.label.iloc[0] for method in ("hard", "temperature_mle"): actual = main_table[(main_table.label == label) & (main_table.method == method)].iloc[0] target = expected[expected.method == method].iloc[0] for metric in ("mae", "spearman_rho", "kendall_tau", "n_models", "temperature_fit_mean"): _check_number(checks, f"main91/{label}/{method}/{metric}", actual[metric], target[metric]) main_table.to_csv(out / "main_results.csv", index=False) mode_path = root / "conformal61" / "mode_comparison.csv" record(mode_path) modes = pd.read_csv(mode_path) conformal_rows = [] for path in sorted((root / "conformal61").glob("*/*/quarter_tie/split_repeats.csv")): method = path.parents[2].name if method not in ("hard", "soft"): continue record(path) condition_path = path.with_name("condition_summary.json") record(condition_path) label = json.loads(condition_path.read_text())["label"] repeats = pd.read_csv(path) summary = core.build_alpha_summary(repeats, []) for _, row in summary.iterrows(): expected = modes[(modes.label == label) & (modes.judge_mode == method) & np.isclose(modes.operational_alpha, row.alpha)] if len(expected) != 1: raise ValueError(f"Expected one conformal summary for {label}/{method}/{row.alpha}") for metric in ("split_coverage_point", "split_coverage_lo", "split_coverage_hi", "split_median_width_point", "split_median_width_lo", "split_median_width_hi"): _check_number(checks, f"conformal61/{label}/{method}/{metric}", row[metric], expected.iloc[0][metric]) conformal_rows.append({"label": label, "method": method, "alpha": row.alpha, "coverage_mean": row.split_coverage_point, "width_mean": row.split_median_width_point, "width_p025": row.split_median_width_lo, "width_p975": row.split_median_width_hi, "split_repeats": len(repeats[np.isclose(repeats.alpha, row.alpha)])}) if not conformal_rows: raise ValueError("No conformal61 split-repeat files found") conformal_table = pd.DataFrame(conformal_rows) conformal_table.to_csv(out / "conformal_results.csv", index=False) smoothing_path = root / "smoothing" / "per_judge.csv" record(smoothing_path) smoothing = pd.read_csv(smoothing_path) judge_col = "judge" if "judge" in smoothing.columns else "label" if smoothing.duplicated([judge_col, "method"]).any() or not np.isfinite(smoothing.mae).all(): raise ValueError("Invalid smoothing table: duplicate or nonfinite results") smoothing_table = smoothing.pivot(index=judge_col, columns="method", values="mae") smoothing_table.loc["Mean"] = smoothing_table.mean(axis=0) smoothing_table.to_csv(out / "label_smoothing_results.csv") report["passed"] = True (out / "tables.md").write_text( "# Archived paper measurements\n\nThese tables aggregate saved measurements; no model fitting was rerun.\n\n" "## Main Table 2: fold-specific temperature\n\n" + _markdown_table(main_table) + "\n\n## Table 3: historical pooled-temperature conformal protocol\n\n" "Widths are mean medians across five splits; p025/p975 are percentiles across splits, not min–max.\n\n" + _markdown_table(conformal_table) + "\n\n## Label smoothing: pooled-temperature ablation\n\n" "Means use unrounded judge-level MAEs. Constants were compared retrospectively using human Elo.\n\n" + _markdown_table(smoothing_table.reset_index()) + "\n") except Exception as exc: report["passed"] = False report["error"] = str(exc) raise finally: (out / "validation.json").write_text(json.dumps(report, indent=2, allow_nan=False) + "\n") return report def main(): parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__) inputs = parser.add_mutually_exclusive_group(required=True) inputs.add_argument("--data", help="Local dataset root or Hugging Face dataset ID") inputs.add_argument("--cached-results", type=Path, help="Aggregate and validate saved measurements without fitting") parser.add_argument("--corpus", choices=["lmarena100k", "lmarena140k", "comparia"]) parser.add_argument("--judge", help="Exact released judge identifier") parser.add_argument("--revision", help="Dataset commit, required for a reproducible remote load") parser.add_argument("--out", type=Path, required=True) parser.add_argument("--protocol", choices=["main", "pooled", "smoothing", "conformal-historical"], default="main") args = parser.parse_args() if args.cached_results: report = build_cached_tables(args.cached_results, args.out) print(f"Verified {len(report['checks'])} numerical comparisons; tables written to {args.out}") return if not args.corpus or not args.judge: parser.error("--data requires --corpus and --judge") from .data import load_annotations, resolve_release root = resolve_release(args.data, args.revision) manifest_path = root / "manifest.json" manifest = json.loads(manifest_path.read_text()) spec = next(r for r in manifest["annotations"] if r["corpus"] == args.corpus and r["judge"] == args.judge) annotation_sha = hashlib.sha256((root / spec["file"]).read_bytes()).hexdigest() if annotation_sha != spec["sha256"]: raise ValueError("Annotation file differs from the release manifest") frame = load_annotations(root, corpus=args.corpus, judge=args.judge) args.out.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) if args.protocol == "conformal-historical": summary, detail, repeats = run_historical_conformal(frame) repeats.to_csv(args.out / "split_repeats.csv", index=False) elif args.protocol == "smoothing": summary, detail = run_smoothing(frame) else: summary, detail = run_point_estimates(frame, pooled=args.protocol == "pooled") summary.to_csv(args.out / "summary.csv", index=False) detail.to_csv(args.out / "heldout_models.csv", index=False) config = vars(args).copy() config["out"] = str(config["out"]) config["rows"] = len(frame) config["annotation_sha256"] = annotation_sha config["manifest_sha256"] = hashlib.sha256(manifest_path.read_bytes()).hexdigest() config["regularization"] = 0.01 config["core_sha256"] = hashlib.sha256(Path(core.__file__).read_bytes()).hexdigest() config["note"] = "Recomputed outputs; compare with archived measurements before claiming numerical reproduction." (args.out / "run_config.json").write_text(json.dumps(config, indent=2) + "\n") print(summary.to_string(index=False)) if __name__ == "__main__": main()