revised march 16, 2001 marginal tax rate reductions and the economy : what would be the long - term effects of the bush tax cut? by peter r. orszag ( 1 ) view pdf of this report view html of factsheet view pdf of factsheet if you cannot access the file through the link, right - click on the underlined text, click " save link as, " download to your directory, and open the document in adobe acrobat reader. some proponents of the proposed bush tax plan argue that it will significantly raise economic growth rates by cutting marginal tax rates. for example, a recent heritage foundation report argued, " because of steep personal income tax rates, highly productive entrepreneurs and investors can take home only about 60 cents of every dollar they earn, not including state and local taxes or other federal taxes. this reduces the incentive to be productive. lower tax rates will reduce this ' tax wedge ' and encourage additional work, savings, investment, risk - taking, and entrepreneurship. " ( 2 ) the logic of this argument is that reducing marginal tax rates increases the incentives to work, to take risks, and to save, all of which can expand the economy. the crucial question, however, is the size of these effects. the most recent academic evidence suggests that marginal tax rate reductions would have only modest effects on future economic activity. tax cuts, furthermore, have an important downside from an economic standpoint : they reduce national saving. dissipating the projected budget surpluses through tax cuts results in lower national saving than if the surpluses were saved ( since funds used for the tax cuts would primarily result in increased consumption, while funds used to pay down debt primarily increase savings ). the fundamental benefit of higher national saving achieved by preserving a substantial portion of the projected budget surpluses is that it will expand economic output in the future. higher national saving leads to higher investment, which means that future workers have more capital with which to work and are more productive as a result. the increased productivity generates a larger economy and higher national income. ( 3 ) in evaluating the impact of tax cuts on the economy, one must include both any potential positive effects from reducing marginal tax rates and the negative effects from reducing national saving. the overall impact of a tax cut on the economy thus is not necessarily positive. as sebastian mallaby, a member of the washington post editorial page staff and a former correspondent for the economist, recently explained in a column in the washington post : " it ' s quite possible that this loss of savings more than out


not necessarily positive. as sebastian mallaby, a member of the washington post editorial page staff and a former correspondent for the economist, recently explained in a column in the washington post : " it ' s quite possible that this loss of savings more than outweighs the modest increase in labor that you get from a tax cut, with the result that the total impact on economic output could actually be negative. " ( 4 ) this analysis raises the possibility that president bush ' s proposed tax rate reductions may produce no significant increase in future gdp and could produce a small decline in future gdp, relative to a course of action of saving the projected surpluses. in other words, preserving the projected surpluses might be, if anything, more beneficial in terms of expanding the economy in the future than the proposed tax reduction. ( 5 ) to determine whether tax cuts would raise or lower national productive capacity, one must look at estimates of the size of these offsetting effects. the evidence on marginal tax rate reductions marginal tax rate reductions could affect a variety of activities important to the economy, including work behavior, saving and investment, and risk - taking. the available evidence, however, generally suggests that any positive effects would be quite modest. the historical evidence, for example, is not consistent with the belief that taxes have a large effect on economic growth. there is no clear link between periods of low taxes and high growth. the strongest period of growth in u. s. history was the 1960s when the top marginal rate was 70 percent or higher. more recently, as discussed below, economic growth in the 1990s was quite strong, despite the 1993 increase of the top marginal tax rate from 31 percent to 39. 6 percent. ( 6 ) more detailed economic research also finds no evidence that countries with lower tax rates or higher levels of government spending experience stronger economic growth. ( 7 ) studies examining the specific effects of marginal tax rates on work, saving, and entrepreneurship similarly tend to find modest effects : - work. a reduction in marginal tax rates may encourage work by allowing workers to retain more of the earnings from their last hour of work. but economic theory suggests that such a reduction also may discourage work, by increasing the after - tax income of workers and therefore potentially inducing them to reduce their work effort ( since they can achieve the same amount of after - tax income with less work effort ). this countervailing force may be one explanation for why studies have generally found only a quite modest effect on work from reducing marginal tax rates. numerous economic studies have found that lower tax rates do little


of after - tax income with less work effort ). this countervailing force may be one explanation for why studies have generally found only a quite modest effect on work from reducing marginal tax rates. numerous economic studies have found that lower tax rates do little to encourage work effort among working - aged males who already are generally working full time but do provide some additional incentives for women to enter the labor force or men to delay partial or full retirement. ( 8 ) as economists joel slemrod and jon bakija of the university of michigan have written, " nearly all research concludes that male participation and hours worked respond hardly at all to changes in after - tax wages, and therefore to marginal tax rates. there is evidence that female labor - force participation, and male retirement decisions, are somewhat responsive, but those responses do not contribute enough to total labor supply to alter the conclusion that, overall, labor supply is not greatly affected by taxes. " ( 9 ) - private saving. a reduction in marginal income tax rates may encourage private saving, since interest and dividend income is taxed as income. but again, economic theory raises questions about even the direction of the effect : if you save to achieve a fixed goal for retirement or education, for example, a reduction in tax rates could encourage you to save less, since the rate of return you earn would be higher and thus you could accomplish your goal with a lower saving rate. ( 10 ) the evidence generally suggests only a modest effect, if any, on private saving from reduced marginal tax rates, although a few studies have found larger effects. as economists douglas bernheim of stanford university and karl scholz of the university of wisconsin at madison write, " although the evidence is mixed, most of the studies that have relied on macroeconomic data conclude that saving is not very responsive to the after - tax rate of return. " ( 11 ) it is also important to remember that even if the proposed tax cut were to raise private saving modestly, it very likely would reduce overall national saving, since the increase in private saving would be smaller than the decrease in public saving. ( the increase in private saving would be smaller because a substantial share of the resources provided in a tax cut would be consumed rather than saved ; if the resources were used instead to pay down more of the debt, the amount saved would be larger. ( 12 ) ) - entrepreneurship. the theory and evidence on the impact of reducing marginal tax rates on entrepreneurship are similarly unclear. many observers note that the income tax reduces the returns to entrepreneurship. but to


the debt, the amount saved would be larger. ( 12 ) ) - entrepreneurship. the theory and evidence on the impact of reducing marginal tax rates on entrepreneurship are similarly unclear. many observers note that the income tax reduces the returns to entrepreneurship. but to some degree, the income tax system also shares in the risks undertaken by entrepreneurs. for example, an individual starting a new business pays lower taxes if the venture fails, partially mitigating the after - tax loss. such risk - sharing may actually encourage entrepreneurship. ( 13 ) perhaps in part because of such offsetting effects, the evidence on the relationship between the income tax and entrepreneurship is weak. as slemrod and bakija write, " entrepreneurship is hard to measure and therefore poorly understood, so there is little evidence to contradict the claims that are made about the deleterious effects of the tax system in this area... yet there is also no hard evidence demonstrating that the potential economic benefits in this area are large. " ( 14 ) rather than examining the effect of marginal tax rates on specific activities, such as work or entrepreneurship, some analysts have focused on the overall relationship between tax rates and income. although some earlier studies found large effects, the most recent studies find only modest effects from tax rate reductions. during his time as an academic, lawrence lindsey now president bush ' s chief economic advisor wrote that the marginal income tax rate reductions in the 1981 reagan tax cuts produced large gains in income. ( 15 ) martin feldstein, another prominent conservative economist who served as chairman of the council of economic advisers under president reagan, has similarly argued that the marginal rate reductions enacted in 1986 generated significant increases in income. ( 16 ) the fundamental point of such analyses is that the individuals whose marginal tax rates were reduced the most were the ones who subsequently experienced the most rapid growth in income, perhaps suggesting that the marginal tax rate reductions caused the rapid income growth for such individuals. if so, the logic would suggest that reducing marginal tax rates would expand the overall economy. the problem with this approach to evaluating the effects of marginal tax rate reductions is that under both the 1981 and 1986 tax legislation, marginal tax rates were reduced the most for the highest income individuals, who were experiencing rapid income growth for other reasons. as austan goolsbee, an economist at the university of chicago, recently wrote : " if there were non - tax related trends in income inequality, however, driving up the income of the rich relative to other groups over this time period, there will be clear bias upward in the estimates "


at the university of chicago, recently wrote : " if there were non - tax related trends in income inequality, however, driving up the income of the rich relative to other groups over this time period, there will be clear bias upward in the estimates " that feldstein and lindsey produced. ( 17 ) to address this potential problem, goolsbee examines a wide array of tax changes from decades other than the 1980s. he concludes that estimates from the 1980s were highly unusual : " the lowest estimates... based on the 1980s data exceed even the highest estimates from data on any previous tax change. " in other words, the responsiveness of incomes to marginal tax changes appeared to be much higher in the 1980s than during other periods. he adds that in almost all time periods except the 1980s, the responsiveness of incomes to marginal tax changes is " relatively modest. " another recent paper by economists jonathan gruber of mit and emmanuel saez of harvard explores the effects of marginal tax rate reductions using a broader array of individual - level data and more sophisticated statistical techniques than earlier papers. ( 18 ) even though gruber and saez focus only on the 1980s, they find only modest effects on " broad income " ( which is the closest measure in concept to gross domestic product in their paper ). marginal tax rates and economic performance during the 1990s the history of the 1990s raises further questions about the impact of marginal tax rates on the economy. in 1993, as noted above, the top marginal tax rate increased from 31 percent to 39. 6 percent. when these marginal tax rate increases were passed as part of the 1993 budget agreement, many prominent conservatives predicted an economic disaster would result. for example, then - senator william roth stated that the marginal tax increase would " flatten the economy. " ( 19 ) then - representative newt gingrich stated that the " tax increase will kill jobs and lead to a recession, and the recession will force people off of work and onto unemployment and actually increase the deficit. " ( 20 ) professor martin feldstein of harvard university wrote of the " harmful effects of higher marginal tax rates on the economy " and warned that many higher earners " are asking themselves whether life wouldn ' t be better if they worked a little less and enjoyed a bit more leisure. " ( 21 ) history has betrayed these predictions, raising questions about the significance of marginal tax rates on economic performance. instead of a recession, the economy experienced its longest economic expansion in history during the 1990s. real gdp grew by an average of 4 percent per year from 1993


history has betrayed these predictions, raising questions about the significance of marginal tax rates on economic performance. instead of a recession, the economy experienced its longest economic expansion in history during the 1990s. real gdp grew by an average of 4 percent per year from 1993 through 2000, almost 50 percent faster than the average from 1973 to 1993. since 1995, productivity growth has averaged 3 percent per year, roughly double its average of 1. 4 percent per year between 1973 and 1993. unemployment and poverty rates have declined substantially. furthermore, under the logic of the studies that examined the impact of marginal tax rates during the 1980s, the increase in marginal tax rates during the 1990s should have discouraged work among top earners and therefore caused incomes at the very top of the income distribution to grow less rapidly than incomes for workers lower in the income distribution. ( 22 ) but after - tax income gains were significantly larger in the 1990s among the top five percent of tax filers the only group affected by the increase in marginal tax rates in the early 1990s than among the rest of the population. ( 23 ) as the congressional budget office recently noted, " the income of households facing the higher rates [ from the 1990 and 1993 increases ] rose much more rapidly over the decade than did overall income. " ( 24 ) in particular, from 1989 to 1998, the average after - tax income of the top one percent of tax filers rose by a robust 40 percent, increasing by $ 171, 000 per taxpayer over this period, after adjustment for inflation. ( 25 ) for those between the 95th and 99th percentiles of the income spectrum ( that is, those in the top five percent except for the top one percent ), after - tax income climbed a healthy 18 percent. as one moves further down the income spectrum, the average after - tax income gain continues to diminish. the bottom 90 percent of tax filers experienced a relatively modest after - tax income gain of five percent over this nine - year period. to be sure, other forces ( such as technological changes ) may have caused the pre - tax income of high earners to grow more rapidly than lower earners, which could then produce the differences in after - tax income growth. that fact, however, highlights the fundamental flaw in the studies that focus solely on the 1980s. to be sure, some may argue that economic growth would have been even more rapid, and income gains among top earners even more dramatic, were it not for the 1993 marginal tax rate increases. but the evidence in support of such a proposition is


. to be sure, some may argue that economic growth would have been even more rapid, and income gains among top earners even more dramatic, were it not for the 1993 marginal tax rate increases. but the evidence in support of such a proposition is weak, and on its face it seems implausible. the upshot is that the experience of the 1990s, which is not reflected in most of the studies mentioned above, provides yet another reason to remain skeptical that marginal tax rates have dramatic effects on the economy. estimating the impact on the economy of the bush marginal tax rate reduction the bush tax plan would reduce the average statutory marginal tax rate ( that is, the average tax rate applying to the last dollar earned in the economy ) by roughly three percentage points relative to the current distribution of tax rates. estimating the impact on the economy of this reduction in marginal tax rates is subject to substantial uncertainty. nonetheless, one reasonable approach applies the results from the gruber and saez study mentioned above. the gruber - saez study is perhaps the most comprehensive and rigorous recent study available. as explained in the appendix, the results from this study are likely biased toward finding large effects on gdp. the analysis in the appendix, based on this study, suggests that a reduction in marginal rates such as president bush has proposed would raise gdp in the long run by slightly less than 0. 4 percentage points. other changes in the bush tax plan would have only minimal effects on gdp in the future, perhaps amounting to about 0. 1 percentage points. the bush tax plan also would reduce national saving relative to the congressional budget office baseline, under which all the surpluses are assumed to be saved. as explained in the appendix, the reduction in national saving caused by the tax cut could reduce gdp in 2012 by between 0. 6 and 0. 9 percentage points. the table below presents the net effect of the bush tax cut on the economy, relative to the baseline assumption of saving the surpluses. as the table shows, the overall effect is likely to be a small reduction in gdp in 2012, because the benefits of the marginal tax rate changes are too small to offset the costs of the fall in national saving. it is worth emphasizing that these estimates are highly uncertain. nonetheless, they raise serious questions about whether a tax cut should be expected to produce a large gain to the economy in the long run. they also suggest that at the margin, scaling back the tax cut and undertaking more national saving would likely be beneficial from the perspective of raising future gdp. percentage point effect


cut should be expected to produce a large gain to the economy in the long run. they also suggest that at the margin, scaling back the tax cut and undertaking more national saving would likely be beneficial from the perspective of raising future gdp. percentage point effect on gdp in 2012 positive effect from tax reductions + 0. 4 to + 0. 5 percent minus : negative effect from reduced national saving - 0. 6 to - 0. 9 percent overall effect - 0. 1 to - 0. 5 percent the most recent academic evidence suggests only modest economic gains should be expected from reducing marginal tax rates. indeed, the gains from reduced marginal tax rates are likely to be so modest that future output may well be higher if the funds devoted to president bush ' s proposed tax cut were saved rather than being spent on the tax cut. the results similarly suggest that providing a tax cut but scaling back its size and saving the funds instead may well raise future output more than a larger tax cut would. the promise of substantial long - term economic gains if the tax cut is enacted is likely to prove illusory and should not be used as a basis for granting the proposal a stamp of approval. the bush tax plan would reduce the average statutory marginal tax rate by roughly three percentage points relative to the current distribution of tax rates. ( 26 ) the reason that the bush tax cut reduces marginal tax rates, on average, by only three percentage points despite larger changes for some taxpayers is that at least 30 percent of total income is earned by taxpayers in the 15 percent marginal tax bracket who would face no reduction in marginal tax rates under the bush plan ( in other words, their income is above the threshold for the proposed 10 percent bracket but below the threshold for the 28 percent bracket, and their last dollar earned would therefore continue to be taxed at a 15 percent marginal rate ). ( 27 ) estimating the impact of this reduction in marginal tax rates is subject to substantial uncertainty. nonetheless, one reasonable approach applies the results from the gruber and saez paper. since the gruber - saez study provides more comprehensive analysis than earlier studies, its estimates appear to provide the best available basis for estimating the impact on future gdp of the bush marginal tax rate reductions. despite being the most recent, rigorous study available, the gruber - saez study may well overstate the impact of the bush tax rate reductions on future gdp for three reasons. first, the gruber - saez study examines only the 1980s, a period during which the responses to changes in tax rates appear atypically


( 34 ) the aggregate effect from the second earner deduction is still likely to be quite modest, however. according to data from the institute on taxation and economic policy tax model, married couples represent less than half of all taxpayers and married couples with incomes below $ 614, 000 account for slightly more than half of total income. the effect on the average marginal tax rate is thus muted, especially since the marginal tax reduction applies only to the secondary earner and not the primary earner. furthermore, for some married couples ( those in which the secondary earner earns more than $ 30, 000 ), the second earner deduction will reduce average tax rates, but not marginal tax rates. for these couples, the second earner deduction would provide incentives for less work, rather than more work, since the couple could keep after - tax income constant even while working somewhat less. ( 35 ) one rough estimate of the potential aggregate effect of the second earner deduction, which is again likely to exaggerate the increase in gdp for the reasons discussed in the footnote, suggests that it could raise gdp in 2012 by perhaps 0. 05 to 0. 1 percentage points. ( 36 ) some proponents of the tax cut argue that eliminating the estate tax would significantly affect the economy. both the theory and the evidence in favor of this proposition are weak, however. ( 37 ) a 1998 treasury department paper noted that there was no empirical evidence concerning the effects of the estate tax on work effort and savings among those who leave estates, and that the estate tax may well encourage work among the heirs of estates : large inheritances, for example, appear to accelerate retirement among the recipients. ( 38 ) the rest of president bush ' s proposed tax package the components that do not reduce statutory marginal income tax rates thus seems unlikely to have a significant effect on future gdp. to be conservative, we allow the other components of the tax package to raise future gdp by 0. 05 to 0. 15 percentage points ( most of which would likely come from the second earner deduction ). this suggests the total tax package, with a cost of between $ 2 trillion and $ 2. 5 trillion when the cost of added interest payments on the debt and the cost of addressing the alternative minimum tax are taken into account, ( 39 ) would raise future gdp by perhaps 0. 4 percent to 0. 5 percent. ( it is worth emphasizing that these estimates are, if anything, an overestimate, for the reasons described above. ) the cbo baseline projections


, ( 39 ) would raise future gdp by perhaps 0. 4 percent to 0. 5 percent. ( it is worth emphasizing that these estimates are, if anything, an overestimate, for the reasons described above. ) the cbo baseline projections for future gdp, however, assume that the entire budget surplus will be saved. relative to that baseline, the tax cut will reduce national saving, which will reduce future gdp. the overall effect of the tax cut on the economy therefore depends on the interaction of these two effects : the modest positive effect from reducing marginal tax rates, plus the negative effect from reducing saving ( relative to the cbo baseline ). another recent center paper examines the impact on future gdp of actions that dissipate the projected budget surpluses. ( 40 ) the methodology is described in detail in an appendix to that paper. using the same methodology, the impact of dissipating $ 2 trillion to $ 2. 5 trillion of the projected surpluses can be estimated. assuming that private saving offsets 25 percent of the $ 2 trillion to $ 2. 5 trillion reduction in public saving ( in other words, private saving rises by 25 percent of the reduction in public saving ), the tax cut would reduce the nation ' s capital stock at the end of 2011, relative to the baseline, by between $ 1. 5 trillion and $ 1. 9 trillion. ( 41 ) to translate the reduction in the capital stock into a reduction in gdp, we assume a marginal product of capital of between 7 and 8. 5 percent, which means that an increase in the nation ' s capital stock of $ 100 is assumed to raise gdp by between $ 7 and $ 8. 50. ( a recent paper by martin feldstein and andrew samwick assumes a marginal product of capital of 8. 5 percent, but that estimate may be too high. ( 42 ) in this context, an overestimate of the marginal product of capital would overstate the negative impact of the tax cut. we therefore also adopt a somewhat lower estimate than the one adopted by feldstein and samwick, as assurance that we are not biasing the results against the tax cut. ) the reduction in national saving associated with the tax cut thus reduces gdp in 2012 by $ 100 billion to $ 160 billion, or by roughly 0. 6 to 0. 9 percentage points. the table above presents the net effects of these changes. the estimates suggest a small reduction in gdp, of perhaps 0. 1 to 0. 5 percentage points, in 2012 from the proposed bush


by roughly 0. 6 to 0. 9 percentage points. the table above presents the net effects of these changes. the estimates suggest a small reduction in gdp, of perhaps 0. 1 to 0. 5 percentage points, in 2012 from the proposed bush tax cut ( relative to the cbo baseline ). 1. peter r. orszag is president of sebago associates, inc., an economics consulting firm. he has previously served as special assistant to the president for economic policy, senior economist on the president ' s council of economic advisers, and a member of the economics faculty at the university of california at berkeley. in august 2001, he will join the brookings institution as a senior fellow in economic studies. 2. daniel mitchell, " reducing tax rates across the board : a cornerstone of pro - growth tax relief, " heritage foundation report no. 711, january 16, 2001. 3. higher national saving today increases future output if the increase in national saving is absorbed either through higher domestic investment or through future receipts from abroad ( which would occur if the increase in national saving is absorbed through higher net lending to foreigners ). 4. sebastian mallaby, " goodbye to reagonomics, " washington post, february 19, 2001, page a33. 5. this analysis focuses only on the expected effects on output in the future. it does not undertake a full social cost - benefit analysis of the proposed tax reductions. 6. the increase in the marginal tax rate was actually larger than this increase in statutory income tax rates, since the 1993 budget deal also applied the medicare payroll tax rate to an unlimited amount of earnings. before 1993, the medicare payroll tax ( 2. 9 percent of earnings ) applied only up to a given level of earnings. 7. see, for example, joel slemrod, " what do cross - country studies teach about government involvement, prosperity, and economic growth? " brookings papers on economic activity ( no. 2, 1995 ), pages 373 - 431. 8. the evidence is surveyed in jerry hausman, " taxes and labor supply, " handbook of public economics : volume i, 1985. 9. joel slemrod and jon bakija, taxing ourselves : a citizen ' s guide to the great debate over tax reform ( mit press : cambridge, 1996 ), page 106. 10. see discussion in leonard burman, the labyrinth of capital gains tax policy : a guide for the perplexed ( brookings institution press : washington, 1999 ), page 56


reform ( mit press : cambridge, 1996 ), page 106. 10. see discussion in leonard burman, the labyrinth of capital gains tax policy : a guide for the perplexed ( brookings institution press : washington, 1999 ), page 56. 11. b. douglas bernheim and john karl scholz, " saving, taxes and, " in joseph cordes, robert ebel, and jane gravelle, eds., the encyclopedia of taxation and tax policy ( urban institute press : washington, 1999 ), page 326. 12. it is also worth noting that a reduction in marginal tax rates reduces the incentive to save within a tax - preferred account. 13. see discussion in joseph stiglitz, economics of the public sector ( w. w. norton and company : new york, 1988 ), pages 553 - 555. the limited deductibility of losses, combined with a progressive income tax system, attenuates the risk - sharing provided by the tax system. stiglitz notes that the overall effect of the tax system on risk - taking is therefore unclear. 14. joel slemrod and jon bakija, taxing ourselves : a citizen ' s guide to the great debate over tax reform, op. cit., page 117. one recent paper does find a significant relationship between marginal tax rates and entrepreneurship. see robert carroll, douglas holtz - eakin, mark rider, and harvey s. rosen, " entrepreneurs, income taxes, and investment, " in joel slemrod, ed., does atlas shrug? the economic consequences of taxing the rich ( harvard university press : cambridge, 2000 ). 15. lawrence lindsey, " individual taxpayer response to tax cuts : 1982 - 1984, with implications for the revenue maximizing tax rate, " journal of public economics, 33 : 173 - 206. 16. martin feldstein, " the effect of marginal tax rates on taxable income : a panel study of the 1986 tax reform act, " journal of political economy, 103 : 551 - 72. 17. austan goolsbee, " evidence on the high - income laffer curve from six decades of tax reform, " brookings panel on economic activity, september 1999, page 9. 18. jonathan gruber and emmanuel saez, " the elasticity of taxable income : evidence and implications, " nber working paper 7512, january 2000. 19. congressional record, august 6, 1993. 20. atlanta journal - constitution, august 6, 1993. 21


saez, " the elasticity of taxable income : evidence and implications, " nber working paper 7512, january 2000. 19. congressional record, august 6, 1993. 20. atlanta journal - constitution, august 6, 1993. 21. martin feldstein and kathleen feldstein, " how the rich will botch clinton ' s plan, " los angeles times, march 21, 1993. 22. an early study by martin feldstein and daniel feenberg suggested that high - income taxpayers reacted to the 1993 marginal tax increases by reducing their work effort and their taxable incomes. in particular, feldstein and feenberg claimed that the reported taxable incomes of very high - income taxpayers fell by 8 percent in 1993. but they failed to take into account the shifting of some income from 1993 into 1992 by high earners who anticipated the tax increase after the 1992 election. correcting for this income shifting significantly affects the results. see martin feldstein and daniel feenberg, " the effect of increased tax rates on taxable income and economic efficiency : a preliminary analysis of the 1993 tax rate increases, " in james poterba, ed., tax policy and the economy ( mit press : cambridge, 1996 ). see also the discussion in joel slemrod and jon bakija, taxing ourselves : a citizen ' s guide to the great debate over tax reform, op. cit., pages 127 - 128. 23. isaac shapiro, " the latest irs data on after - tax income trends, " center on budget and policy priorities, february 26, 2001. 24. congressional budget office, " budget options, " february 2001, page 376. 25. some of this increase was due to capital gains, and capital gains tax rates were reduced during the 1990s. even excluding capital gains, however, the differential in income growth rates between top earners and lower earners during the 1990s was dramatic. ( it should be noted that the recent surge in capital gains income began well before capital gains tax rates were reduced in 1997. as cbo noted in its recent report on the budget and the economy, " between 1994 and 1998, realizations of capital gains nearly tripled, with most of that increase occurring before the cut in tax rates for them in 1997. " ) 26. this figure weights each individual ' s marginal tax rate by his or her income. it is derived from " individual income tax rates and shares, 1997, " statistics of income, spring 2000, table 1. it assumes that taxpayers


. " ) 26. this figure weights each individual ' s marginal tax rate by his or her income. it is derived from " individual income tax rates and shares, 1997, " statistics of income, spring 2000, table 1. it assumes that taxpayers in the 15, 28, and 31 percent marginal income tax brackets face a 15. 3 percent marginal payroll tax rate, and that taxpayers in the 36 and 39. 6 percent marginal income tax brackets face a 2. 9 percent marginal payroll tax rate. it excludes the relatively small effect of the phase - out of itemized deductions ( which applies to married taxpayers with adjusted gross income of more than $ 128, 950 in 2000 ) and of personal exemptions ( which applies to married taxpayers with adjusted gross income of more than $ 193, 400 in 2000 ). this figure assumes that 25 percent of the income currently taxed at a 15 percent marginal income tax rate would instead be taxed at the 10 percent rate proposed as part of the bush plan. this assumption is likely an overestimate, so that the overall marginal tax rate would not fall as much as assumed in this analysis ( and therefore gdp would not rise as much ). 27. note that the three percentage point reduction is predicated on the 1997 distribution of taxpayers. over time, income growth in excess of inflation tends to push taxpayers into higher marginal tax brackets. the reduction produced by the bush tax cut may therefore be somewhat higher under the distribution of taxpayers in 2011. 28. see, for example, the discussion in roger gordon and joel slemrod, " are ' real ' responses to taxes simply income shifting between corporate and personal tax bases? " in joel slemrod, ed., does atlas shrug? the economic consequences of taxing the rich ( harvard university press : cambridge, 2000 ). 29. the gruber - saez paper suggests an elasticity of broad income with respect to the net tax factor of 0. 12. that is, gruber and saez suggest that broad income would rise by 0. 12 percent for every one percent reduction in the net tax factor ( which is defined as one minus the tax rate ). the weighted - average marginal tax rate, including payroll taxes, is currently 38 percent ; it would decline to 35 percent under the bush plan. the 0. 6 percent figure is therefore computed as 0. 12 * ( ln ( 1 -. 35 ) - ln ( 1 -. 38 ) ) = 0. 006. note that gruber and saez also find that


. the 0. 6 percent figure is therefore computed as 0. 12 * ( ln ( 1 -. 35 ) - ln ( 1 -. 38 ) ) = 0. 006. note that gruber and saez also find that the elasticity is higher for higher - income taxpayers and lower for lower - income taxpayers. applying their income - specific elasticities ( see table 8 of their paper ) to each class of income produces a similar overall result. 30. in 1998, the gruber - saez definition of " broad income " would have amounted to slightly more than $ 5. 4 trillion. gdp was $ 8. 66 trillion. broad income thus was 63 percent of gdp. 31. gruber and saez emphasize that their estimate is highly uncertain, and that the " true " effect could be zero : their estimate is not statistically significantly different from zero. the estimates here therefore are also uncertain and are effectively not statistically significantly different from zero. 32. a recent paper by eric engen and jonathan skinner suggests the effects of marginal tax rate reductions may be larger than this estimate, albeit still relatively modest. see eric engen and jonathan skinner, " taxation and economic growth, " national tax journal, december 1996. their estimates, however, are based on international comparisons and on combining a variety of microeconomic studies. under either of these approaches, the negative effects of reduced national saving may also be larger than estimated below. it is not clear whether the overall effect of reduced marginal tax rates and reduced national saving would be any different under the engen and skinner approach. similarly, some estimates of the effects of tax reductions use dynamic or " endogenous growth " models. in such models, both tax reductions and reduced saving would typically generate larger effects than shown here, but it is unclear whether the net effect of a tax reduction and reduced saving would be significantly different. 33. the deduction reduces taxable income by only 10 percent of the second earner ' s income ( up to a maximum income of $ 30, 000, thereby providing a maximum deduction of $ 3, 000 ). for a family in the 15 percent marginal bracket ( most of whom will have one spouse earning less than $ 30, 000 ), the second earner deduction reduces the marginal tax rate for the secondary earner by 1. 5 percentage points. it does not reduce the marginal tax rate for the primary earner. 34. see, for example, nada eissa, " taxation and labor supply of married women : the tax


rate for the secondary earner by 1. 5 percentage points. it does not reduce the marginal tax rate for the primary earner. 34. see, for example, nada eissa, " taxation and labor supply of married women : the tax reform act of 1986 as a natural experiment, " nber working paper 5023, february 1995. eissa finds that labor force participation rates among high - income married women are particularly responsive to marginal tax rates. 35. similarly, for many couples, the proposed increase in the child credit will reduce average tax rates but not marginal rates and therefore could reduce work incentives. the change in the phase - out range of the child credit will reduce marginal tax rates for some families and raise them for others. the net effect from the child credit changes is, if anything, likely to be a reduction in labor supply. 36. eissa finds that the elasticity of labor supply with respect to the after - tax wage rate is between 0. 6 and 1. 0 for very high - income women. if we assume an elasticity of 0. 7 for the entire population of married women ( which is likely to be too high and therefore to exaggerate the effect of the tax reduction ) and also assume that the secondary earner deduction reduces the marginal tax rate for second earners by two percentage points on average and that secondary earners earn an average of $ 30, 000 in nominal dollars in 2012 ( which also may be too high and therefore may overstate the effect on gdp ), the implied increase in gdp in 2012 is roughly $ 20 billion, or 0. 1 percentage points of projected gdp. the assumed elasticity of 0. 7 may be much too high for the married female population as a whole, however. with an elasticity of 0. 35 rather than 0. 7, the predicted increase in gdp is 0. 05 percentage points. 37. see william gale and maria perozek, " do estate taxes reduce saving, " forthcoming in william gale, james hines, and joel slemrod, eds., rethinking estate and gift taxation ( brookings institution press : washington, 2001 ). 38. david joulfaian, " the federal estate and gift tax : description, profile of taxpayers, and economic consequences, " department of the treasury, ota paper 80, december 1998. 39. for a discussion of the overall cost of the bush tax cut, see robert greenstein, " cost of the bush tax cut rises, " center on budget and policy priorities,


department of the treasury, ota paper 80, december 1998. 39. for a discussion of the overall cost of the bush tax cut, see robert greenstein, " cost of the bush tax cut rises, " center on budget and policy priorities, revised february 13, 2001, and richard kogan and robert greenstein, " new joint tax committee estimates raise cost of bush tax plan : cost now well over $ 2 trillion, " center on budget and policy priorities, march 2, 2001. 40. peter orszag, " the peril of zero debt and the long - term budgetary outlook : some questions regarding chairman greenspan ' s recent testimony, " center on budget and policy priorities, february 22, 2001. 41. the council of economic advisers ( cea ), in february 1994, argued that the private saving offset would be zero. see council of economic advisers, economic report of the president 1994 ( government printing office ), page 83. the cbo, however, argues that between 20 and 50 percent of increased federal saving is offset by reduced private saving. see cbo, " description of economic models, " november 1998. the 25 percent figure reflects a combination of the cea and cbo views. 42. see martin feldstein and andrew samwick, " allocating payroll tax revenue to personal retirement accounts, " tax notes, june 19, 2000, p. 1645. we also assume that cbo ' s projected 3. 1 percent real growth rate for 2010 and 2011 continues into 2012. note that it is technically more accurate to examine gross national product, rather than gross domestic product, since some of the differentials in capital are likely to manifest themselves in the stock of net foreign investment rather than the stock of domestic capital. under the assumption that the return on foreign capital is equal to the return on domestic capital, however, this caveat is merely semantic : the benefit to future workers is unaffected.


- the magazine what can be said about a glaze? plenty! we have all been in the position of trying to describe our favorite glaze to another potter or to ourselves. if the actual glaze is not present, the verbal account can leave a lot to the imagination, which can produce an inaccurate image. the glaze description language is an agreed - upon meaning to the many characteristics found in glazes. it uses several key words and phrases to define a glaze. the idea, as with all languages, is that everyone understands what is meant by the standardized terms that classify a glaze. the glaze description language allows the listener or reader to formulate an accurate mental image of how the fired glaze looks and functions. one area of potential error occurs when writing or describing glazes. many potters still refer to a glaze formula by its popular name. for example, we have all called glazes randy ’ s red or bob ’ s blue. while there is a certain personal and informal quality in referring to glazes in such a manner, it can lead to numerous inaccuracies in exchanging or understanding glaze formulas. just referring to a glaze by its common name does not tell us enough about its characteristics, such as color, texture or light transmission. as an added potential for error, the actual glaze formula for randy ’ s red could have changed many times since randy developed the glaze. identifying glazes only by their names is an inaccurate attempt to transfer information and can indicate a potter ’ s lack of knowledge about glaze formulas. even potters who know better are still drawn into the easy habit of referring to a glaze only by its name. however, there is another method that can transfer information with greater accuracy. once the vocabulary is known, it makes the task of explaining how a glaze looks much easier, faster and more accurate. we ' re not talking about deciphering sanskrit or egyptian hieroglyphics ; just a few simple categories can add to the enjoyment of making and describing ceramic glazes. keep in mind there are no set rules about the number of terms to use in describing a glaze. however, it is critical that any terms used have some universal understanding among potters. in addition, too many descriptive terms can be overly cumbersome to use in actual practice. many potters choose only those descriptions that accurately focus on their particular glaze. listed are several characteristics that will define a glaze in specific terms. firing temperature :


, too many descriptive terms can be overly cumbersome to use in actual practice. many potters choose only those descriptions that accurately focus on their particular glaze. listed are several characteristics that will define a glaze in specific terms. firing temperature : c / 06, c / 6, c / 9 the firing temperature or pyrometric cone rating is critical in the description of any glaze. the three most common temperature ranges used today in ceramics are c / 06 ( 1830°f ), c / 6 ( 2232°f ) and c / 9 ( 2336°f ). most clay body and glaze formulas have been developed around these temperature ranges. published glaze and clay body formulas also fall within these widely used pyrometer cone and temperatures. preparation : frit or raw oxides frits are manufactured from specific raw oxides, which are calcined or fired in a molten mass, cooled and then ground into a fine powder. frits are frequently used in low -, medium - and some high - temperature glazes, acting as a major flux or glass former. a raw glaze is composed of non - fritted ceramic materials such as feldspars, clays, dolomite, whiting, zinc, talc, magnesium carbonate, and other naturally occurring raw materials. composition : lead, alkaline and alkaline earth the composition of any glaze can determine its surface texture, light transmission, viscosity when molten, and color development when used with stains or metallic coloring oxides. the major ( but not only ) ingredients in glazes fall within three broad categories : lead - based glazes containing lead ; alkaline - based glazes containing feldspars and / or frits ; and alkaline earth - based glazes containing calcium, magnesium, barium, strontium and beryllium. texture : gloss, satin matt, dry matt the fired glaze can develop gloss, satin matt or a dry surface texture. a gloss surface is shiny and smooth to the touch. a satin matt surface is similar to a satin ribbon, with a semi - smooth surface texture, while a dry matt glaze can have a gritty surface. the surface texture of the glaze is not to be confused with its light transmission qualities. light transmission : transparent, semi - opaque, opaque the ability of light to penetrate the glaze layer determines whether the glaze is transparent, semi - opaque or opaque. color : green,


##laze is not to be confused with its light transmission qualities. light transmission : transparent, semi - opaque, opaque the ability of light to penetrate the glaze layer determines whether the glaze is transparent, semi - opaque or opaque. color : green, yellow, red, blue, etc. glazes can be formulated in any color using stains or metallic coloring oxides. color is often one of the major defining characteristics in describing any glaze. special effects : wood, soda, salt, raku, luster glazes can be developed for wood, soda, salt, luster, raku or any number of applications or firing techniques. application : sprayed, dipped, brushed a glaze can be sprayed, dipped or brushed on the ware. the application method can also play a part in the total fired glaze effect. atmosphere : oxidation, neutral, reduction a glaze can be fired in an oxidation atmosphere ( more air than fuel present in combustion ), a neutral atmosphere ( equal amounts of air and fuel ), or a reduction atmosphere ( more fuel than air present in combustion ). the kiln atmosphere can alter any of the above glaze characteristics depending on the particular glaze formula and kiln firing cycle. glaze hardness : soft, hard while not typically a glaze characteristic that is noted, some fired glazes can be described as either hard or soft in their resistance to abrasion or solubility. while it is not necessary ( or, in many instances, required ) to use every glaze description characteristic, an example would be : i am currently firing a c / 9, fritted, alkaline, gloss, transparent, blue, soda - fired, sprayed glaze in a reduction atmosphere, and it has a hard - fired surface. more frequently, a description of this same glaze would be stated as : i am currently firing c / 9 / reduction, gloss, transparent blue, soda - fired glaze. standardization in describing glazes leads to accuracy in talking and writing about glazes, all of which can create a greater understanding of ceramic materials. disseminating accurate glaze information to other potters will also prevent many glaze defects that are caused by the misidentification of glaze characteristics.


creating a better future on the world day to combat desertification, media around the world wrote about the importance of restoring lands and soils. meanwhile delegates met at the rio + 20 global summit on sustainable development during a high level meeting on securing healthy soils and stopping land degradation. here are a few news highlights : live coverage of ‘ desertification day ’ ( 17 june, rtcc ) the # riopavilion is hosting desertification day – focused on sustainable land management, degradation and real debate on what can be done to prevent thousands of hectares of the earth ’ s surface from becoming unusable 1200 while delegates in riocentro arrive bleary eyed after last night ’ s talks … the athlete ’ s park across the road is buzzing. this is home to un agencies, international stands, company exhibits and the best coffee in rio – at the italy pavilion – a construction from hemp, cardboard and bamboo. 1230 key points from this morning ’ s session at the rio pavilion … - desertification is still seen as a domestic issue. situation now critical. need a global appreciation of danger - 1. 6 billion extra people on planet since first rio summit in 1992 ; food provision is becoming critical - @ unccd boss luc gnacadja calls for strong text on land management at otherwise we face conflict + famine - unff ’ s jan mcalpine : soil is the blood in our planet ’ s veins. it ’ s time we treated it with the respect it deserves - benin ’ s minister for environment tells us they need more investment and funding in africa to develop sustainable land strategies read the full daily report just planting trees won ’ t stop march of deserts ( 16 june, pacific standard, judith schwartz ) while deserts expand and shrink naturally over geologic time periods, the desertification of today is not “ natural. ” it ’ s driven by human action, such as over - cultivation, deforestation, and poor livestock management. today 1. 5 billion people depend for their food and livelihoods on land that is losing its capacity to sustain vegetation. it ’ s been estimated that half of today ’ s armed conflicts can be partly attributed to environmental strains associated with dryland degradation. a number of scholars cite desertification as a key factor in the fall of some civilizations : think carthage, mesopotamia, ancient greece and rome. to combat the advance of deserts, most governments and ngos say planting trees is the best way to halt encroaching sands. two field scientists are addressing the problem from very different directions, allan savory and chris rei


ancient greece and rome. to combat the advance of deserts, most governments and ngos say planting trees is the best way to halt encroaching sands. two field scientists are addressing the problem from very different directions, allan savory and chris reij, agree that while trees are part of the answer, but their work eschews planting them. “ planting trees cannot reverse desertification in most places because the desertifying land generally has too low a rainfall for full soil cover from tree leaf fall litter, ” savory says, “ and exposed soil leads to less effective rainfall. ” his solution relies not on trees, but on animals. reij admires the work of yacouba sawadogo of burkina faso, featured in the film “ the man who stopped the desert. ” “ yacouba had a lot of land that was degraded. nothing was growing, ” reij recounts. “ he took a traditional technique, digging basins, or zai pits. he made the pits deeper, to collect more rainwater, and added manure, to nourish plants, and used these to grow crops and trees. he started a 15 - hectare forest this way. ” these trees, he notes, weren ’ t intentionally planted : “ we ’ re talking about protecting and managing trees that grow spontaneously on farmers ’ fields. a lot of tree planting has not been very successful. the survival rate of trees planted in drylands is only about 20 percent. yet it ’ s continued year after year despite not such a good track record. ” read the full article 12 - year - old dubai girl wins in un competition ( 18 june, janice ponce de leon, gulfnews ) a 12 - year - old girl from dubai was awarded as one of the four global winners of the united nations convention to combat desertification ( unccd ) in celebration of the world day to combat desertification on sunday. speaking to gulf news from brazil, basu said : “ receiving a united nations award is very very special. i think it is very important for children to be responsible for the future and we cannot let someone else take care of it on our behalf. through my essays, i wish to shock people out of their complacency and take action. ” basu, the youngest among the 700 delegates from 112 countries who attended the youth blast, the rio + 20 conference for youth, said that the youth group in the conference is “ very concerned by the fact that they are not a part of the decision - making process. ”


among the 700 delegates from 112 countries who attended the youth blast, the rio + 20 conference for youth, said that the youth group in the conference is “ very concerned by the fact that they are not a part of the decision - making process. ” read the full article ‘ desertification is nearly as critical as climate change ’ ( 18 june, kpm basheer, the hindu ) interview with dr. mansour n ' diaye, chef de cabinet of the united nations convention to combat desertification secretariat what will be the role of the upcoming rio + 20 conference in the fight against desertification? the rio + 20 role will be very crucial as world leaders can take a bold decision of setting a sustainable development goal for “ zero net land degradation. ” we are pushing for an agreement on zero net land degradation by 2030. setting up of an intergovernmental panel on land and soil will be very helpful in speeding up efforts to check desertification. desertification is nearly as critical as climate change and international initiative on climate change and biodiversity loss should have linkages and synergies with steps against desertification. unfortunately, people are not as aware of the impact of desertification as they are of climate change. the rio + 20 meeting can bring in desertification on the sustainable development agenda. it can also agree to give more legal teeth to the unccd. steps to check desertification and rehabilitating degraded lands are expensive and time - consuming. how can poor countries rise to the challenge? of course, the battle against desertification calls for long - term commitment and investment. there is no alternative. regional, sub - regional and country - level plans are necessary for africa and asia to reclaim deserts and restore them to fertile farmlands. developing countries need to integrate their poverty eradication programmes with strategies to fight desertification. they could also earmark a certain share of their annual budgets for the efforts. the soil and land preservation efforts should be prioritised and mainstreamed. the funds for climate change mitigation and adaptation could be dovetailed to the anti - desertification programme. in africa, several countries have come together to form a 12, 000 sq. km “ great green wall ” extending from senegal to djibouti with the participation of local communities. people ' s participation is crucial in reclaiming lands. china ' s “ great green wall ” project is on a massive scale and is now starting to show results. read the full article add a comment


the international energy agency predicts renewables will become the world ’ s second - largest source of power generation by 2015 and close in on coal as the primary source by 2035. but according to the 2012 edition of its flagship publication, the world energy outlook, the agency warns this rapid increase is critically dependent on continued subsidies. it says in 2011, these subsidies ( including for biofuels ) amounted to $ 88 billion, but over the period to 2035 need to amount to $ 4. 8 trillion ; over half of this has already been committed to existing projects or is needed to meet 2020 targets. ambitions for nuclear have been scaled back as countries have reviewed policies following the accident at fukushima daiichi, but capacity is still projected to rise, led by china, korea, india and russia. the report, which was launched in london today, also warns the race is on to improve energy efficiency if the world is to limit global warming to 2°c. fatih birol, iea chief economist and the weo ’ s lead author, said : “ our analysis shows that in the absence of a concerted policy push, two - thirds of the economically viable potential to improve energy efficiency will remain unrealised through to 2035. “ action to improve energy efficiency could delay the complete ‘ lock - in ’ of the allowable emissions of carbon dioxide under a 2oc trajectory – which is currently set to happen in 2017 – until 2022, buying time to secure a much - needed global climate agreement. “ it would also bring substantial energy security and economic benefits, including cutting fuel bills by 20 % on average. ” referring to iea ’ s statement that two - thirds of proven fossil fuel reserve cannot be used if the world is to limit global warming to 2°c, wwf - uk said that is was “ crazy ” that governments were still backing fossil fuels over renewables. the group said that the uk energy bill needed to mark a decisive away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy. keith allott, head of climate change at wwf - uk, commented : “ the iea have delivered yet another sober assessment of our failure to put the world ’ s energy systems onto a sustainable path. many governments and businesses are clearly in denial over the threat posed by climate change and need to accept that we have to start leaving fossil fuels in the ground rather than dashing to develop new reserves. it ’ s simply crazy to think otherwise. ” “ given the massive potential highlighted by the iea for energy efficiency, it ’ s astou


accept that we have to start leaving fossil fuels in the ground rather than dashing to develop new reserves. it ’ s simply crazy to think otherwise. ” “ given the massive potential highlighted by the iea for energy efficiency, it ’ s astounding that ways of promoting it haven ’ t been included in the draft uk energy bill. energy efficiency could cut people ’ s bills in the uk by £10 billion a year – we must make sure we benefit from this. ” wwf ’ s global director of energy policy, dr stephan singer, also backed the call by the iea to cut fossil fuel subsidies and redirect the cash into clean renewables and energy conservation. he said : “ it is almost the final nail in the coffin of the global fossil fuel industry ’ s credibility to see the iea very prominently highlighting the fact that about two thirds of the presently available fossil fuel reserves have to stay underground if the world is serious about staying below 2 degree global warming. “ this science - based but blunt assessment should be heard clearly by all countries. this is not only about stopping all new large fossil fuel developments such as in the arctic ; this is about surrendering existing assets as well, and it is the price to pay to avoid global climate disaster. ” today ' s iea report also shows how the global energy map is changing in dramatic fashion and these switches will recast expectations about the role of different countries, regions and fuels in the global energy system over the coming decades. “ north america is at the forefront of a sweeping transformation in oil and gas production that will affect all regions of the world, yet the potential also exists for a similarly transformative shift in global energy efficiency, ” said iea executive director maria van der hoeven. “ this year ’ s world energy outlook shows that by 2035, we can achieve energy savings equivalent to nearly a fifth of global demand in 2010. in other words, energy efficiency is just as important as unconstrained energy supply, and increased action on efficiency can serve as a unifying energy policy that brings multiple benefits. ” the weo finds that the extraordinary growth in oil and natural gas output in the united states will mean a sea - change in global energy flows. in the new policies scenario, the weo ’ s central scenario, the united states becomes a net exporter of natural gas by 2020 and is almost self - sufficient in energy, in net terms, by 2035. north america emerges as a net oil exporter, accelerating the switch in direction of international oil trade,


the united states becomes a net exporter of natural gas by 2020 and is almost self - sufficient in energy, in net terms, by 2035. north america emerges as a net oil exporter, accelerating the switch in direction of international oil trade, with almost 90 % of middle eastern oil exports being drawn to asia by 2035. links between regional gas markets will strengthen as liquefied natural gas trade becomes more flexible and contract terms evolve. while regional dynamics change, global energy demand will push ever higher, growing by more than one - third to 2035. china, india and the middle east account for 60 % of the growth ; demand barely rises in the oecd, but there is a pronounced shift towards gas and renewables. fossil fuels will remain dominant in the global energy mix, supported by subsidies that, in 2011, jumped by almost 30 % to $ 523 billion, due mainly to increases in the middle east and north africa. global oil demand grows by 7 mb / d to 2020 and exceeds 99 mb / d in 2035, by which time oil prices reach $ 125 / barrel in real terms ( over $ 215 / barrel in nominal terms ). a surge in unconventional and deepwater oil boosts non - opec supply over the current decade, but the world relies increasingly on opec after 2020. iraq accounts for 45 % of the growth in global oil production to 2035 and becomes the second - largest global oil exporter, overtaking russia. while the regional picture for natural gas varies, the global outlook over the coming decades looks to be bright, as demand increases by 50 % to 5 trillion cubic metres in 2035. nearly half of the increase in production to 2035 is from unconventional gas, with most of this coming from the united states, australia and china. whether demand for coal carries on rising strongly or changes course radically will depend on the strength of policy decisions around lower - emissions energy sources and changes in the price of coal relative to natural gas. in the new policies scenario, global coal demand increases by 21 % and is heavily focused in china and india. water is essential to the production of energy, and the energy sector already accounts for 15 % of the world ’ s total water use. its needs are set to grow, making water an increasingly important criterion for assessing the viability of energy projects. in some regions, water constraints are already affecting the reliability of existing operations and they will introduce additional costs. expanding power generation and biofuels output underpin an 85 % increase in the amount consumed ( the


radiation therapy with or without chemotherapy before surgery in treating patients with stage ii or stage iii rectal cancer rationale : radiation therapy uses high - energy x - rays to kill tumor cells. drugs used in chemotherapy, such as fluorouracil and leucovorin, work in different ways to stop the growth of tumor cells, either by killing the cells or by stopping them from dividing. giving radiation therapy and chemotherapy before surgery may make the tumor smaller and reduce the amount of normal tissue that needs to be removed. giving chemotherapy after surgery may kill any tumor cells that remain after surgery. it is not yet known whether radiation therapy is more effective with or without chemotherapy when given before surgery for rectal cancer. purpose : this randomized phase iii trial is studying radiation therapy given together with fluorouracil and leucovorin to see how well they work compared to giving radiation therapy alone before surgery in treating patients with stage ii or stage iii rectal cancer. drug : leucovorin calcium procedure : adjuvant therapy procedure : conventional surgery procedure : neoadjuvant therapy radiation : radiation therapy | study design : | | allocation : randomized primary purpose : treatment | official title : | | preoperative radiotherapy with or without concurrent chemotherapy ( 5 - fluorouracil and leucovorin ) in t3 - 4 rectal cancers - randomized trial | - compare the recurrence - free and overall survival of patients with resectable stage ii or iii adenocarcinoma of the rectum treated with neoadjuvant radiotherapy with or without concurrent chemotherapy comprising fluorouracil and leucovorin calcium followed by surgery and adjuvant fluorouracil and leucovorin calcium. outline : this is a randomized, controlled, multicenter study. patients are stratified according to participating center, gender, location of the tumor relative to the anal margin ( 0 - 5 cm vs > 5 cm ), and tumor stage ( t3 vs t4 ). patients are randomized to 1 of 2 treatment arms. neoadjuvant therapy : patients are randomized to 1 of 2 neoadjuvant therapy arms. - arm i : patients receive leucovorin calcium iv and fluorouracil iv over 15 minutes on days 1 - 5. treatment repeats every 28 days for 2 courses in the absence of disease progression or unacceptable toxicity. patients also undergo concurrent radiotherapy 5 days a week for 5 weeks. - arm ii : patients undergo radiotherapy as


to read part one of this three - part series, click here. there are three related categories in the chemical - free construct for eliminating chemical residual : - transitional chemical - free technologies - enabled chemical - free technologies - fully toxic - free, chemical - free technologies. in the end, after the specific cleaning activity, all achieve a common result in that there is no harmful chemical residual in the air or on any surface. what follows is a discussion of the enabled chemical - free technologies. while no means complete, the following technologies should be explored in the quest to adopt a least harmful cleaning model. it is so common that it can be found in toothpaste, for example. titanium dioxide also acts as a powerful photocatalyst, a substance that creates a reaction when it is exposed to light. what is important about this characteristic is that the photocatalyzing abilities of titanium dioxide have been shown to break down a wide variety of organic compounds. this process occurs naturally once applied ; thus, no labor is involved. a surface covered with titanium dioxide will actually clean itself when exposed to ultraviolet light ( uv ) either from an artificial source or sunlight. it is effective on building exteriors, indoor and outdoor glass and many touch point surfaces. it is even showing up as a self - cleaning coating in restrooms, which could revolutionize our process of caring for such areas with reduced budgets. closely aligned to titanium dioxide, photocatalysts are additives that allow surfaces to keep themselves clean by decomposing organic material. uv light decomposes many organic materials in a slow, natural process that is visible in the way a dashboard of a vehicle fades and gets brittle over time. photocatalysts speed up this process and, like other types of catalysts, stimulate a chemical transformation without being consumed or worn out by the reaction. perhaps more importantly, they reduce air pollution by scouring nitrous oxide from the air. photocatalysts also have exciting potential for decorative concreting, but they are still seen as being in the technology - transfer phase of moving from laboratory to commercial reality. antimicrobial products are unique in their ability to create a long - lasting antimicrobial barrier on surfaces that is effective against a wide range of contaminants. some water - based coating products are enhanced by this technology because it inhibits microbial growth. this is achieved by creating an antimicrobial force field on hard surfaces and textiles. the cell wall of a microbe is about as thin as a soap bubble ;


based coating products are enhanced by this technology because it inhibits microbial growth. this is achieved by creating an antimicrobial force field on hard surfaces and textiles. the cell wall of a microbe is about as thin as a soap bubble ; so, this technology works to tear apart the thin cell wall of microbes like bacteria, mold, fungi and algae. a countertop product called silestone has bacteriostatic protection built into the actual material, meaning that it will inhibit or prevent the growth of bacteria and mold on the surface. while silestone will not prevent food illnesses from improper handling, such as contamination with feces or uncooked meats, it will help to make the countertop areas easier to clean and maintain. nsf international and other organizations have noted the benefits of this antibacterial surface. a diamond pad cleaning system is an effective way to mechanically treat and maintain floors without strong stripping solutions, safety risks or intensive labor. this cleaning system consists of floor pads impregnated with microscopic diamonds that clean and polish a floor mechanically instead of using traditional chemicals. diamond - impregnated pads can be used on most common floor surfaces like terrazzo, ceramic tile, linoleum, vinyl / plastic, natural stone and concrete. diamond pad technology transforms dull, worn floors into clean, glossy and brightly polished floors with no potentially harmful chemistry. check back next month when we will explore the fully toxic - free, chemical - free technologies.


on sunday, the world bank released a study – turn down the heat : why a 4⁰c warmer world must be avoided – that says the world is on a path to increase the average global temperature by 4⁰c by end of the century – that is double what scientists say is safe in order to avoid the most catastrophic climate - related events. “ the world is barreling down a path to heat up by 4 degrees at the end of the century if the global community fails to act on climate change, triggering a cascade of cataclysmic changes that include extreme heat - waves, declining global food stocks and a sea - level rise affecting hundreds of millions of people, ” the world bank described in a press released on sunday. “ a 4 degree warmer world can, and must be, avoided – we need to hold warming below 2 degrees, ” world bank group president jim yong kim stated in a press release. “ lack of action on climate change threatens to make the world our children inherit a completely different world than we are living in today. climate change is one of the single biggest challenges facing development, and we need to assume the moral responsibility to take action on behalf of future generations, especially the poorest. ” sea - level rise is among the many consequences described in the report. according to the study ’ s climate projections,. 5 meter to 1 meter sea - level rise is likely by 2100, with higher levels in specific regions. present - day sea - level dynamic topography could put developing countries in the indian subcontinent and southeast and east asia at most risk, areas that already experience above - average sea level rise. while there is no definitive link “ between present - day dynamic topography and the future sea - level rise under climate warming, ” those regions are experiencing greater coastal and urban migrations, which could make them more vulnerable to future sea - level rise. “ highly vulnerable cities are to be found in mozambique, madagascar, mexico, venezuela, india, bangladesh, indonesia, the philippines, and vietnam, ” the study found. in addition to sea - level rise, the report found that water scarcity will grow much worse in a 4⁰c warmer world. “ in a world rapidly warming toward 4°c, the most adverse impacts on water availability are likely to occur in association with growing water demand as the world population increases, ” according to the study. “ some estimates indicate that a 4°c warming would significantly exacerbate existing water scarcity in many regions, particularly northern and eastern africa, the middle east,


with growing water demand as the world population increases, ” according to the study. “ some estimates indicate that a 4°c warming would significantly exacerbate existing water scarcity in many regions, particularly northern and eastern africa, the middle east, and south asia, while additional countries in africa would be newly confronted with water scarcity on a national scale due to population growth. ” the bottom line, according to the report, a 4⁰c warmer world must be avoided at all costs. “ a 4°c world is likely to be one in which communities, cities and countries would experience severe disruptions, damage, and dislocation, with many of these risks spread unequally. it is likely that the poor will suffer most and the global community could become more fractured, and unequal than today. ” for security planners, the consequences are also likely to include increased uncertainty about future climate projections that make it more difficult to plan and equip accordingly. “ [ a ] 4°c world is so different from the current one that it comes with high uncertainty and new risks that threaten our ability to anticipate and plan for future adaptation needs, ” world bank group president kim acknowledged in the foreword of the report. photo : courtesy of the world bank group.


( cnn ) - - space, it has been said, is big. really big. but big enough for two companies that want to mine near - earth asteroids? a venture announced tuesday in california hopes so. deep space industries says it wants to start sending miniature scout probes, dubbed " fireflies, " on one - way missions to near - earth asteroids as soon as 2015. larger probes, " dragonflies, " that will bring back 50 - to 100 - pound samples from prospective targets could be on their way by 2016, company ceo david gump told reporters. the goal is to extract metals, water and compounds that can be used to make spacecraft fuel from the chunks of rock that float within about 50 million kilometers ( 31 million miles ) of earth. gump said the ability to produce fuel in space would be a boon for nasa, as the u. s. space agency shifts its focus toward exploring deeper into the solar system. as much as 90 % of the weight of a prospective months - long mars mission could be fuel - - and it costs between $ 5, 000 and $ 10, 000 per pound to put anything into space. " if nasa can launch just the hardware and tank up in orbit, where the fuel is cheap, that means we could get to the red planet a lot sooner than we currently expect, " gump said. that could also allow commercial satellite companies to extend the life of hardware that ' s now written off when fuel for maneuvering thrusters runs out. " if you give it one more month of active work in orbit, it ' s worth about $ 5 ( million ) to $ 8 million to the owner of that satellite, " gump said. tuesday ' s announcement comes nine months after the unveiling of a similar project by planetary resources, a company led by space tourism pioneers eric anderson and peter diamandis. that group, backed by investors such as filmmaker james cameron and google executives larry page and eric schmidt, says it hopes to get its first unmanned probes into space by the end of 2013. since the retirement of its space shuttles, nasa has hired out supply missions to the international space station to the private rocket company spacex. it completed the first commercial flight in october and is vying for a contract for manned flights into orbit alongside boeing and sierra nevada. deep space industries said it can build its first class of probes largely with off - the - shelf parts and book them on other launch vehicles, such as the french - built ariane rockets or the falcon booster


into orbit alongside boeing and sierra nevada. deep space industries said it can build its first class of probes largely with off - the - shelf parts and book them on other launch vehicles, such as the french - built ariane rockets or the falcon boosters developed by spacex. executives said tuesday they ' re also developing a foundry designed to produce metal parts from nickel, an element abundant in asteroids, and operate in space, and a class of " harvestor " craft to extract valuable material from the asteroids. but john mankins, the company ' s chief technology officer, said its plans are based on existing technology, not " magic. " " you don ' t see any space elevators. you don ' t see antigravity. you don ' t see warp drive, " said mankins, a former nasa scientist. " there is really nothing the business plan deep space industries is using that cannot be done with the technological research that has already been accomplished in laboratories across the planet. " nasa landed a probe on the 20 - mile - long asteroid 433 eros in 2000, while japan ' s space agency not only landed its hayabusa spacecraft on the roughly 1, 700 - foot asteroid itokawa in 2007 but also returned it to earth with small samples in 2010. andrew cheng, project scientist for the eros probe near - shoemaker, said the big question facing commercial space ventures remains what it will cost to get their equipment off earth. " the physics are feasible. the economics is a different story, " said cheng, who now leads space research at the applied physics laboratory at johns hopkins university. he said he ' s hopeful that ventures such as deep space industries can succeed as more companies venture into space, however. " if someone identifies a way to do something out there that makes a lot of money, and there ' s a lot of traffic and a bigger market, then the cost will come down, " he said. " it ' s a bit of a chicken and egg problem. " space is a new legal frontier as well. the 1967 outer space treaty provides for " free access to all areas of celestial bodies " by any nation, but isn ' t clear about commercial rights, said henry hertzfeld, who researches space policy at george washington university. until that ' s cleared up, that adds risk to any business venture, he said. cheap access to space has been " the sort - of holy grail " for decades, " and we ' re not much closer to that than we were 50 years ago, "


myths and facts a note on terminology the term " deaf " ( with an uppercase " d " ) is used here to emphasize a cultural affiliation : deaf people in the united states and canada who use american sign language as their everyday means of communication, who identify as culturally - deaf, and who consider themselves members of the deaf community. ( members of deaf communities in other countries use their own native sign languages, but for the sake of simplicity, only asl is mentioned here. ) many, although not all, have attended schools for the deaf ; a number have also attended the " big three " : ntid at rit, gallaudet, and csun. we use the broad, inclusive term " deaf " ( lowercase " d " ) to refer to any person who is medically / audiologically deaf, irrespective of communication mode, cultural affiliation, or identity. we also use the term " hearing " ( uppercase " h " ) to emphasize the cultural aspect of the hearing community. we are using the pronouns " we " and " us " to refer to the msm productions, ltd. / deaf. com staff and, in a broader sense, members of the deaf communitywhich includes asl - deaf people and hearing people who share our concerns and support and encourage our work. the deaf community is an intermodal alliancethat is, it includes deaf, hard - of - hearing, and hearing people. this is the community we serve. click on any question to read the answer. what is your opinion of cochlear implants? many doctors are calling it a " revolutionary technology " that is transforming what had been an isolated group of people, namely the deaf. how do you see the development in implants? those who are in favor of cochlear implants say that implants can make deaf children and adults hear. but deaf advocates say that even with an implant, a deaf person is still deaf. what does that mean? what is your opinion of cochlear implants? many doctors are calling it a " revolutionary technology " that is transforming what had been an isolated group of people, namely the deaf. how do you see the development in implants? many of us are extremely skeptical about the claims weve been reading in the media and cochlear - implant ( ci ) promotional literature. we sometimes suspect that the media plays up the advantages of the ci while dismissing the disadvantages. we have no quarrel with deaf teenagers or adults who choose


weve been reading in the media and cochlear - implant ( ci ) promotional literature. we sometimes suspect that the media plays up the advantages of the ci while dismissing the disadvantages. we have no quarrel with deaf teenagers or adults who choose to receive implants. we have profound reservations about the current trend of implanting deaf infants and children. do you feel that the mass media has given the ci controversy fair and balanced coverage? or has it been biased? if so, how? one thing that disturbs us when reading media coverage of cis the staggering quantity of ignorance displayed by some of those who are reporting and commenting on it. even in prestigious newspapers and periodicals, weve found a lot of slanted language utilized by journalists that reveals prejudice : e. g., describing the ci as " a cure for deafness " and the sensory experience of the unimplanted child as " a world of total silence. " in 1997, a leader of the national association of the deaf patiently endured a two - hour interview for a tv - news special on cis, giving articulate responses to each question as she was videotaped. she was asked boorishly ignorant questions like " how can you deny hope to deaf children? " the program, as broadcast, allotted her perhaps 30 seconds of commentary. what she had to say ended up mainly on the cutting - room floor. weve been contacted by a few reporters and asked some good, tough questions. by " tough, " we mean that theyre not the sort of questions that lend themselves to quick answers. they cant be answered breezily in the space of a sound bite. reams of paper have been chewed up and tankloads of ink spilled on this topic alreadyand weve scarcely begun. we appreciated the reporters approach, and their open - mindedness, their willingness to ask us how we felt about this issue. however, in most cases, the responses we gave these reporters werent published. in the case of people weekly, an editor ( not the reporter who contacted us ) made the decision to publish a quote from a deaf celebrity instead of anything from us. the deaf life staff didnt qualify as celebrities. no quotes from us were used in the usa today writeup as it was published. thats how the media business goes : you give them lots of detailed responses, but youre lucky if you get a couple of sentences in the published or broadcast version. we wouldnt go so far as to say that the ci lobby controls the media. (


how the media business goes : you give them lots of detailed responses, but youre lucky if you get a couple of sentences in the published or broadcast version. we wouldnt go so far as to say that the ci lobby controls the media. ( we sometimes suspect that they do because they have money to burn. the deaf community doesnt. ) but doctors, ci surgeons, clinicians, audiologists, and other members of the medical lobby command a lot of respect in our culture just because theyre members of the medical profession. the public listens to them. they have high visibility. they have prestige. when you have quickie news coverage of this issue, you often see the doctor making some typically authoritative comment like " we get much better results with implants when the children are young. the earlier its done, the better the outcome. " cut to a member of the grassroots - deaf community ( usually one without medical credentials ) making a comment like " we deaf people are not broken, and we dont want to be fixed. " which one has more media visibility? the media loves parents of kids with implants. they certainly get a sizable chunk of the spotlight. its hard to resist the sight of cute little kids, especially those whose parents insist that theyve given them cis because they love them and want the best for them. and then the videocams focus on little kimmy or jimmy learning to talk : " mama! dada! " the public just eats it up. and where are the signing - deaf children of signing parents? theyre not in the spotlight. another thing : in articles about newly - implanted deaf children, you always read what the adults ( the doctors, audiologists, and parents ) have to say about the childs progress, but you rarely read what the deaf child says, how she feels, what she thinks. the adults are making the decisions, articulating their reasons, justifying their actionsand the deaf child remains silent, inarticulate. but when deaf adults ( and the vast majority are deaf children of hearing parents ) speak out against the ci, they are portrayed as dangerous enemies of progress, as extremists, fanatics, and militants. their concerns are frequently downplayed or dismissed. an anti - implant protest rally in canada ( 1995 ) made it into chuck shepards " news of the weird, " but not the front pages. can you give me an example of media bias? theres an article by arthur allen posted on the salon. com site


protest rally in canada ( 1995 ) made it into chuck shepards " news of the weird, " but not the front pages. can you give me an example of media bias? theres an article by arthur allen posted on the salon. com site in spring 2000, titled " sound and fury " and subtitled " thousands of deaf kids can hear, and speak, thanks to a stunningly effective ear implant. so why is the deaf community in an uproar? " to quote one of the statements : " many leaders of the national association of the deaf have gotten implants, and the group is redrafting a position paper to make it more friendly to cochlear implants. " we were aware that nad was redrafting its old ci position paper, but who were these nad leaders who had received implants? nancy j. bloch, nad executive director, told us, " i dont know where arthur [ allen ] got the many leaders and more friendly to cochlear implants part, so cannot comment on this. i can tell you that the nad cochlear implant committee is in the process of developing a new position statement for consideration by and approval of the nad board of directors. it is expected that the new position document will be less adversarial than the original, take into consideration the rights of parents to make balanced and informed choices on behalf of their children, and the need for emphasis on visual language development, among other things. " its safe to say that no nad leaders have received implants. and " stunningly effective? " really? what is the impact on deaf culture of the growing number of people who are using these devices? it has created an uproar in the deaf community, to be sure, and a lot of bitter feelings. there has been some public outcry. a number of implanted kids have entered the schools for the deaf. how well has it been working out for them? are they making good progress? deaf children have been known to haze implanted kids mercilessly. parents of implanted kids have been publicly confronted and excoriated by deaf people. there has been name - calling, shouting, and a lot of online flaming. the ci has ideologically split the deaf community, and has shaken up families. this was evidenced in the aronson documentary sound and fury. the artinian family, which has deaf and hearing siblings exposed to deaf culture, and deaf children born to the deaf and hearing siblings, was painfully divided on


and has shaken up families. this was evidenced in the aronson documentary sound and fury. the artinian family, which has deaf and hearing siblings exposed to deaf culture, and deaf children born to the deaf and hearing siblings, was painfully divided on the issue. do deaf people feel insulted by the fact that so many hearing parents are willing to risk putting their children through surgery in order to eliminate deafness? insulted, perhaps, but perhaps a more accurate response is " disturbed. " were gravely concerned about the effect that the implants will have on these childrens educational careers, their social lives, their communicative skills, their emotional health, their futures, and their overall well - being. we feel that theres some degree of deception going on, that the parents are not getting the full story before making the commitment. deaf people, quite understandably, feel threatened by the implant in a way that they dont feel threatened by other technological advances such as hearing aids, signaling devices, and the internet. hearing aids, let it be remembered, are completely removable. an implant is a permanent installation. the new implants are used with babies, and the community " feels that theyre being robbed of their most precious resourcedeaf children. " ( were paraphrasing a statement we recently read. ) the implant takes away more than it gives. deaf people in this country have been fighting to gain equal respect as citizens, and to have their language, asl, recognized and respected, and to give deaf children a wider choice of options than the traditional pure - oral regimen imposed by virtually all schools for the deaf and deaf - ed programsand just as soon as we get asl out of the closet, get some recognition and respect for it in the academic community and general society, along comes the implant and a new boom in the most rigorous kind of oral / aural approach. some of us dont see this as technological progress, but the worst sort of backlash. its not progress as much as a new twist on retrogression. what bothers you most about implants? we are gravely concerned about implants becoming a " trend. " remember when tonsillectomies were the medical trend? if your child got sick and had inflamed tonsils, s / he was trundled off to the hospital for a tonsillectomy. finally, when medical researchers realized that tonsils might play a hitherto unrecognized role in keeping the immune system healthy, and parents realized that


s / he was trundled off to the hospital for a tonsillectomy. finally, when medical researchers realized that tonsils might play a hitherto unrecognized role in keeping the immune system healthy, and parents realized that tonsils were better off left alone, the trend died out. one mother of two grown deaf children has compared cochlear implants to silicone breast implants, which the fda assured us were quite safe, and were part of a cosmetic trenduntil word got out that there were might be some very bad consequences. some of us see implants as the latest medical fad for " curing " deafness. there is already a backlash of youthful implantees who are, for various reasons, unhappy with their implants and have stopped using them. a few have even had them surgically removed. its too soon to see whether they represent the vanguard of a growing faction of dissidents or a disgruntled minority. what are some of your concerns about children with cis? we are concerned about the well - being of deaf children, and their families, too. were worried about the grueling oral - aural rehabilitation they typically have to undergo, the way that clinicians and doctors frequently tell the parents not to use any signing whatsoever with their children, the banishment of sign language and deaf mentors from their lives, and the possible negative effects of the mainstreaming that will be the norm for a majority of these kids. were worried that at least some of them will be left without any effective language. their parents wont learn to sign, they wont get any real exposure to it in public schools, and theyll be deprived of this tremendous source of enrichment. the implant industry has a ready sucker market in parents of newly - diagnosed deaf babies. theyre in a state of shock. they may be grieving. they desperately want their children to be " normal, " to participate fully and to enjoy all the advantages of life in the " real " world. choose a world of sound, the propaganda urges them, if you really care about them. and they feature stock photographs of attractive, happy children ( undoubtedly portrayed by hearing models ) in their ads. who could resist such a come - on? theres a growing trend to send newborns straight to the implant clinic after the hearing - screening tests confirm that theyre deaf. we imagine that some parents are persuaded ( or pressured ) to make this decision quickly, " for the good of the child. " they


growing trend to send newborns straight to the implant clinic after the hearing - screening tests confirm that theyre deaf. we imagine that some parents are persuaded ( or pressured ) to make this decision quickly, " for the good of the child. " they wont have to worry about learning to sign or choosing a school for the deaf. wham! the kids " fixed. " were worried about the way the cochlear - implant corporations have been promoting implants as a providing a magic key to a deaf childs success in the mainstream, and the misleading advertising surrounding the promotional campaigns, which are, naturally, aimed at the parentsparents who are coping with the shock and grief of their childrens deafness and who desperately want their deaf kids to be " normal. " these campaigns use highly selective data to present an incomplete, even deceptive, picture to parents. they tout the " higher quality of life " supposedly enjoyed by young implantees, as compared with unimplanted deaf children. the implant industry, as far as we can tell, has no real interest in the total well - being of these children, nor their struggles in the mainstream, nor their futures. they just want to market their product globally. they want their profit margin. on what basis do you say that they have no real interest in the well - being of deaf children? theyve admitted as such themselves. in a washington post article, a top executive of the leading ci corporation said that his company wasnt " in business to serve the deaf culture " ( i. e., deaf people ), but to serve hearing parents. no ci surgeons or representatives from the implant industry have, to our knowledge, ever bothered to visit schools for the deaf or mainstream programs to see just how well the consumers of their prostheses are doing in their everyday lives. the implant industry has never sponsored any deaf culture or asl - affirmative events. they do send representatives to deaf expos to staff information booths, disseminating free ci promotional materials. but we never read about grants to schools for the deaf or any community initiative that isnt strictly self - serving. what else bothers you? were worried about the way implants are marketed to parents of newly - diagnosed deaf babies. now, ostensibly, statewide screening programs are supposed to present the options to parents in a fair, unbiased way. but if the cochlear corporation has a better, more aggressive marketing campaign than, say, the national association of the deaf, are they scoring


statewide screening programs are supposed to present the options to parents in a fair, unbiased way. but if the cochlear corporation has a better, more aggressive marketing campaign than, say, the national association of the deaf, are they scoring more hits with the parents? question : do parents of deaf babies really understand the options before they commit to an implant? question : are implants really a more cost - effective measure in the long run than a sign - based education at a school for the deaf? question : do parents whose children get implants have higher expectations for them than parents who dont? question : what long - term effects do the implants have on a deaf child, socially and academically? were concerned about the way the popular media ( womens magazines, for example ) carry glowing, simplistic stories about the " miracle " of the implant ( " the gift of sound! " ), without discussing the children whose experience with implants has been less than " miraculous. " when they tout a certain child making exemplary progress with the implants, are they including full details of the childs communication capabilities before he got the implant? in some cases, they omit this data. some of this success is undoubtedly due to active parental involvement. if deaf kids are from achievement - oriented families that place a lot of importance on reading and writing, they automatically have an advantage over those who dont. a good measure of a childs success in school can be attributed to the early acquisition of literacygetting exposure and plenty of extracurricular practice in reading and writing. we would like to know what effect implants have on these vital skills. many of us in the deaf community are likewise concerned about these things. the high cost of the implant, the fact that there is still no reliable way of predicting how much the implant will benefit a child or what its long - term effect on her life may be, the attitude of some doctors and implant - clinic staffers who prohibit any use of signing in the rehabilitative regimen, parents who refuse to allow their child to get any exposure to asl, the additional burden being placed on deaf children who are forcibly mainstreamedall of these things concern us. and, yes, we have been speaking out about it, but since we lack the political clout of the ci lobby, our response has been scattershot. there is no single unified anti - childhood - implant organization. doesnt the ci cure deafness? doesnt it make a deaf person hear?